Podcast appearances and mentions of liz mccormick

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 21, 2023 31:39 Transcription Available

Dan Ives, Senior Equity Analyst at Wedbush Securities, joins to discuss the latest on OpenAI, Microsoft, and gives us a preview of Nvidia earnings. Sinead Colton Grant, global head of BNY Mellon Investor Solutions, joins to discuss the firms' Capital Market Assumptions report and outlook for a soft landing in the US. Ed Harrison, Senior Editor at Bloomberg News and author of the “Everything Risk” column and Liz McCormick, Chief Correspondent of Macro Markets at Bloomberg News, join for a roundtable discussion on risk assets, the 20-year-bond treasury auction, and outlook for bond and equity markets. Matt Sigel, Head of Digital Assets at VanEck, joins to discuss the Wall Street Journal report on Binance CEO CZ Zhao agreeing to step down and plead guilty. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Bailey LipschultzSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

head microsoft wall street journal openai nvidia treasury auction senior editor digital assets zhao bloomberg news vaneck chief correspondent wedbush securities paul sweeney ed harrison liz mccormick

AGCO CEO on Harvesting Tech for the Future of Farming

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 1, 2023 39:58 Transcription Available

Eric Hansotia, Chief Executive Officer at AGCO, discusses growth, technology and sustainability in the agriculture industry. theSkimm Co-Founder Danielle Weisberg talks about their Show Us Your Child Care initiative. Bloomberg News Chief Correspondent for Global Macro Markets Liz McCormick and Bloomberg News Cross Asset Reporter Denitsa Tsekova provide the details of their Businessweek Magazine story Hedge Funds Turbocharge Volatility in Cratering US Bond Market. And we Drive to the Close with Amanda Agati, Chief Investment Officer at PNC Asset Management Group.Hosts: Carol Massar and Mike Regan. Producer: Paul Brennan. FULL TRANSCRIPT: This is Bloomberg Business. Wait inside from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio. Well shares at Adco. Check it out, everybody, They're up our third day, They're at more than six percent in that time. Company reported earnings yesterday morning, of which third quarter just at EPs was a big beat. Third quarter net sales in line with expectations, and the maker of tractors and combines also said it still sees fiscal year net sales of about fourteen point seven billion, slightly above street estimates, with fiscal year just ADPs of about fifteen dollars seventy five cents a share. That's fifty cents above the company's earlier forecasts. Three analysts nonetheless cutting their price targets on the company by an average of three and a half percent since it reported yesterday. So let's get to it. We have a great guest. We have the CEO, Chairman, President and CEO at ADCO, Eric Hansotea. Excuse me, Eric Hensotia, He's on zoom from Duluth, Georgia, and he joins, us, forgive me, forgive me. I'm trying to race to get to you. So I apologize. Eric. Oh you good, no problem, Really great to have you here with us. First of all, how are you? And I do have to ask you about the FED? In an environment where the FED says, you know, we could still continue raising rates, we're still worried about inflation. Does that kind of mesh with the outlook that you see? Well, your first question was how am I doing great? Just couldn't be happier with the progress that our company is having relative to our strategy. We're going to have two billion more in sales this year, We're going to grow margins significantly relative to the and it's all in line with our high tech focus on being the industry leader and smart farming machines relatively to the FED. You know, interest rates do weigh on farmers' minds. These are big as they carry a lot of technology. They're expensive machines, many times half a million to a million dollars, and so they often finance those machines, and higher interest rates are part of the part of the decision. I'm expecting that we're you know, at a high plateau and that we're more likely over the coming year to have red rates go down then up, and that would be welcomed by our customers, you know, Eric, I'm looking at the revenue growth of ag CO over the years and really some impressive growth there. Twenty twenty one is up, twenty two, twenty twenty two up fourteen percent, sixteen percent. This year, it does, at least according to analyst estimates, look like you might be in for a dip in revenue last year. And I'm wondering what's the what's driving that? Is that entirely an interest rate story or is there is there something else going on? It's actually very little related to interest rates. Agriculture often is not connected, not correlated highly with the regular GDP growth. It's more tied to the agricultural agricultural economy. So the price of corn, wheat, soybeans, and that's a function of how much green there is in the world. For the last two or three years, there's been green shortages and so green prices have been high. That means more profit for our farmers. Now they've had a great year this year in terms of harvest and so there's a little bit more stock prices have come down a bit, and that's really more what drives farmer profitability and then turn their interest to purchase equipment. Hey, Eric, what I wonder is longer term how you guys think about the business, how you plan, because I wonder if things like weather, climate change, demographics globally, is that more significant in terms of how you think about the growth longer term? And if so, what does that maybe indicate to you. Yeah, that's a great point, Carol. So we see three macro tailwinds plus this weather factor. So let me touch those real quickly. Number One, we're moving from eight billion people to ten billion people between now and twenty fifty. Number two, emerging economies are adding more meat to their diet as they do that. That's a multiplier on the demand for green chicken is a two to one multiplier, beef is a ten to one multiplier. And then third is renewable fuels, so ethanol in the United States. But now the next one is renewable diesel. Ethanol consumes forty percent of the corn crop today. Renewable diesel is likely going to grow to that same kind of proportion over the next few years. Those are all macro tailwinds that cause the farmer to have higher yields and more pressure on higher yields. And then weather is another one. We're having more severe droughts and more severe floods every year that reduces the overall global global ability to produce cream. So you add those four factors together and the farmers are pushed to have higher yields while using less inputs, less fertilizer, pesticide, chemicals and things like that, and so there's a big squeeze for productivity. Using our technology, we're using artificial intelligence on our now to be able to use vision systems so identify the difference between a weed and a plant as a machine's going through the field and spray only the weed, saving like seventy percent of the chemical and a lot of automation of features throughout all of our products. Can you say, I'm assuming you've been using AI for a long time though, right, Yes, we have. Across many of our machines. We use AI to understand the variation in soil or crop and have the machine learn over time to be able to optimize itself real time in the field. It's amazing because when you think of AI. The last thing I think most people think of is farm labor. Do you think of machines though, I think a machine. Well, Eric made a great point and I wanted to ask about this. Is right at the beginning, you said that technology aspect of your business is so important, and again, if you're not really familiar with ACO, you might not think about that. But one thing I wanted to ask about, Eric, and full disclosure, I'm not an expert on tractors. In fact, I hire a kid to cut my own grass, so I'm really I've driven a tract, this big one. There we go. So I'm coming at this from a pure ignorance state of mind. But I would think that self driving technology would be easier to implement on the farm with a tractor. But from my understanding is it's not really I wonder if you could talk to us a little about where you are with that type of technology. You know what we see it anytime soon? Or is it just, for whatever reason, too complicated to have self driving tractors. It's a great topic. It's at the heart of our strategy is putting technology on machines to have the machine be smarter and be able to do more things for the customer. I talked about the sprayer. We're automating all our functions on all of our machines. We've increased our engineering spend by sixty percent over the last three or four years since we started a strategy. We've bought six tech companies. We just announced the biggest AGG tech deal in history with Trimble agg where is over a two billion dollar deal to bring those to their technology and our technology together. So technology is a big deal. Now let's talk about the autonomy question. Already, guidance, which Trimble is is one of the world leaders in is used by farmers once they get into the field. They get into the field and they already turn on auto steer, which is a satellite driven guidance, tip the steering wheel out of the way and the machine steers for itself. Now it's still supervised today, but most large AGG has is the machine is doing the steering for itself. We've committed when we were in Wall Street last week last year, we committed that by the end of the decades, so twenty thirty, we would have the full crop cycle, meaning planting, spring, tractors, harvesting, all autonomous with no driver in them, and by twenty twenty five we'd have a retrofit kit that would be able to be put on an existing machine to make it autonomous. So it's a more contained environment. There's not so much other traffic and other things in the way, and you can stop. You don't have a lot of other traffic around, so you can if there's runs into a situation hasn't seen before, the machine will just failsafe mode is stop and then you can remotely view into it and restart it. It's like about right, there's lots of move there's a lot of space around you. Autopilots work really really well. Hey, in twenty twenty four, what do we expect for your company? Do you see higher prices due to inflation continuing And just got about forty seconds. Yeah, yeah, prices are going to moderate. You know, these last couple of years, we put a lot of pricing into the market, more than our a little bit more than our cost. We expect to still put more than our cost into the market because of all this technology we're bringing in the value it generates. But inflation is coming down pretty significantly for us, and so we think it'll be much more normalized. You know, we haven't given guidance, but it'll be more in the mid to low single digits than where we've been before. Any any kind of peak ten seconds in terms of the ag machinery market, do you see any kind of peeking out just very quickly. Well, we've still got strong demand going into next year. Our order boards are out six or seven months on large egg. We're sold out for our seasonal products. We're all through Mighty Year twenty four, so we still see twenty four as a good year, although getting more normalized. All right, love it, listen, come back soon, so appreciate it. Eric Hansodia He is chairman, president CEO at AGCO on zoom from Duluth, Georgia, So appreciate your time. On this Wednesday, you're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. All right, we're going to switch gears a little bit off of earnings. Talk about the skim. It's a non partisan digital media company catering to women. It's a subscription newsletter company to offer up things like the daily Skim Skim Money. There's also a podcast and a lot more in terms of what they do the privately held company. Their investors include GV which was formerly Google Ventures. Also Disney. We just heard Denise talk about Disney when it comes to the Hulu ownership. Ventures is another investor in the company. We talked with both of the founders back in March, and great to have back with us this time around. The Skim co founder Danielle Weisberg. She's on Zoom in New York City. Danielle, how are you. I'm good, Thanks so much for having me here today. Before we get into some specifics, I always like to talk perspective. You guys have been around for more than a decade. It's been a few months, about six months or so since we last talked. Talk to us about, you know, how business is doing this year, and just talk to us about how you see the environment right now. Yeah, So you know, listen, you guys are in this day in and day out in terms of public companies, and I think that when it comes to this environment, we know ADS spending has been really up and down. It's been tenuous. I think that when those budgets flex, the biggest thing that you can rely on is a direct relationship with a sought after customer. And at the Skim we have been representing millions of win women for over a decade. Our audience is the people that you want to reach and that you need to reach. They are the ones that are making ninety five percent of household purchasing and spending decisions. So while the overall media landscape continues to have challenges, we've certainly felt that, but at the Skim, what we come back to again and again is what you can't duplicate and what you can't just start overnight, which is a real direct relationship with a group of women who look for look for us every single day. How big is that group? Just remind us in terms of your reaction base over twelve million women. Wow, that's a lot. That is a lot. Are you just remind me to only subscription based or no, there's ad dollars that comes in. No, we have a differentiated revenue model. So we have sponsorship, we have subscription, and actually our fastest growing line of revenue has been commerce. Danielle, at the Skin, you have a very interesting initiative going on called show us your Childcare, Talk to us a little bit about what that is, what the goal of that is. Yeah, so it's a good day to talk about it because there was I don't know if you guys saw this, but there was a report today where we were finally able to look at data in comparison to childcare costs in twenty nineteen. So the price of childcare is up thirty two percent. That means that many families can't afford to both work, and that price search outpaysd overall inflation. I mean, when you look back this year, how much time have we spent reporting on inflation and thinking about what that is doing to families and the decisions that they're having to make, and think about then what it means to say childcare costs are going beyond that. And again this isn't new. This child share share childcare crisis has been in existence for years and the pandemic only made that worse. And in fact, the only time that there has been an investment the US has ever made a sizable investment in childcare was during the pandemic. And when that pandemic era funding expired, which it did, there were no other solutions offered. So it's leaving about three point two million children and their families without childcare options, and that is absolutely just unacceptable. We have an economy that more and more relies on parents, both of them to work, and to do that, you need to make sure that your kids have proper care. Right Listen, you're preaching to the choir. Nobody's going to like get. We totally agree. We talk so much here, I feel like about the lack of affordable daycare or childcare, if you will, for many, many millions of Americans. Other countries seem to have figured it out. You guys, have a partnership and talk to us a little bit about it with moms first. You're partnering also with companies such as Verizon, MasterCards, show Banni on this. Tell us what specifically are you are doing to kind of impact this problem or the situation. Yeah, So we launched hashtags show us your Childcare. And this is the second real civic action campaign that we've lost that we've launched. The first was hashtag show us Your Leave. And what we believe is really matching areas with there is a disconnect for what the government is doing so. Again, childcare has not been something that's been solved by Democrats in leadership or Republicans, and so because of that, we again have really needed the private sector to step up. And I think that this is a time when there's not one right way to know how to support your business through a childcare cliff. But how best do you think the private sector can do it? I think many would argue, yeah, maybe the government doesn't need to be involved, that there are private sectors that have definitely been very profitable and that as a benefit, or to help out their workers to make it easier, or in a tight labor force, bring more workers in to actually provide childcare. So what are the one or two things that can really make a difference here. Well, the first is use it to attract and retain talent. So this is a big way to make your policies transparent. Use our hashtag show us your childcare. And that's where we've gotten over eighty companies such as Pinterest, Shobani, ww ets, Verizon to make their policies transparent. And what that does is it really virtue signals that you care about families and that you are going to put your money where your mouth is. But what any of those companies actually do, That's what I'm curious about. What do they do that actually helps people with their childcare needs. Yeah, so it's everything from flexible work hours to cash stipends to put towards childcare costs. One of the things that we do at the SKIM is team up with a partner VB to make sure that there's backup care options. So we offer kind of a bank of credits those days when you have normal childcare but you need a plan B your childcare provider is closed or someone sick. So it really runs the gamut to onsite childcare centers. And again, you know, it's going to depend on the size of your business how much you're able to invest. But there are different things out there, and we want to make sure that that's part of the conversation when it comes to benefits. And I imagine there's a pretty good economic incentive for some companies to get more engaged with childcare. Is that a selling point of this initiative? And Daniel just got about twenty seconds. Yeah, I think it is, and I think overall as a society, we should all make sure that we have a growing workforce that we have nice things like social securities, and to do that, we need to make sure that women stay in the workforce. So I think overall there's a benefit there, but there's also investing employees they'll stay longer. All Right, we got to run, Thank you so much, A very timely issued something we've been talking about. Bloomberg. This give co founder Danielle Weisberg on zoom in New York City. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. Yeah. One man's loss is another one's game. That is definitely cocky. Attention of the hedge fund industry on this FED decision day Wednesday, if you will, the US Treasury, you know, trade is definitely on our minds, Mike. The funny thing is it's been on our minds a lot this year, amid big swings in the trade volatility in any given day, we've seen tremendous swings. Yeah. Absolutely, and it's fascinating to see sort of new classes of hedge funds get involved in the treasury market. You know, there's certain macro funds that are always president there. But whenever I see the name long tail Alpha, you know, a tail risk catch fund, I know something's gone wrong somewhere when these guys are actively involved in the trade. So I think that's the case with the story. Well, let's get to it, because it's a story that is reported out in the new issue of Bloomberg Business Week. Let's get into what's going on, as I said in the upcoming new issue on newsstands tomorrow, already online a Bloomberg dot com slash business Week, and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. So let's get to it. Bloomberg News Chief correspondent for Global macro Markets, Liz McCormick is with us. She is on zoom in New Jersey, and also with us is Bloomberg News crossauset reporter Denisatsakova. She's here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. Guys, so great to have you here with us. It is in BusinessWeek, the upcoming new issue, which will be out on newsstands tomorrow. Denise, let's start with you. I'm curious about the conversation in the newsroom. Joel has a tendency they'll kind of walk around the newsroom and like kind of poke people about stories. How did this story come about? What was the conversation or did you know one of you say like, you should see what hedge fund guys are up to, So tell us how this came to be. Yeah, so it came back to that theme. We've talked a lot about price sensitive and price incentensitive buyers, so we wanted to look into who are really those new buyers, and hedgephone's a big part of it. And obviously, like if you think of just generally trading treasuries and think of it as the safest market and kind of a little bit slower moving market compared to I don't know, compared to equities, currencies, I don't know. So the conversation came, how has the day of those people changed? And this is what we ask them, So won't tail Alpha ven year's day is very different? You know. The first anecdote is he wakes up every two hours to check the prices, and you know, it's being there on your Bloomberg terminal or whatever. You check your prices all the time and following every little move and then every small data release is very important and potentially it can make you move things. And obviously, like some of those traits have voice trades, sometimes you have to be in the and look at all those releases together decide where you have to make moves. And you can imagine this is very different than I don't know, five years ago, when the FED was such a big important buyer and prices maybe weren't as sensitive to those things. Yeah, this is why I'm not a tail risk hedge fund. That that well, well, I want to bring listen to this conversation, Liz, because we talk about the extreme volatility that we see in the US bond market this year. So are they playing our hedge fund guys and gals, if you will, playing a significant role in that volatility? Well? Yeah, right? Is it circular? Right? And they like the volatility, they come in, they create more volatility, right, So it kind of feeds on itself and then more it becomes and I have to do a shout out. I know Tracy Alloway at some point did a story treasury is trading like a meme stock, so we have to book that one up. But that it becomes like, you know, what was it? Oh, I think Mike Reagan must have edited one of these stories we did where there was other things that were like the hot things that was crypto. And now look at this treasuries even today, look at the yields across the curve. It's like down, you know, over fifteen bases points. It's crazy. So I think hedge fund's coming in because there's more volatility and trading than that adds to it. But they do kind of on the flip side say hey, we're adding to the liquidity, we're you know, making markets. And Deniza knows. Today we had the refunding today and they had their barring committee, which the Treasury always does look into different things. One of them was like the demand base, and they brought up things that were in our story, not that it was from our story, but that the buying base has changed. You know, you have less commercial banks, foreign central banks, you have more households and hedge funds you know, involved in the treasury market. So it's kind of interesting that they brought that up today. Mike did call it a meme stock by the way early. Yeah, I really wanted to take credit for that, but of course Liz Tracy's way ahead of me as usual. But Liz, you know, one of the sort of standard bread and butter hedge fund trades when it comes to the treasury market is something known as the basis trade, which basically looks to profit between discrepancies in the price of bond futures and the actual bonds trading in the cash market. That seems to be kicking into high gear this year, and there's a bit of a backlash to that from the government and some scrutiny about what hedge funds are doing. I know, it's created its own backlash to the backlash, Ken Griffin coming out and saying, why do they care about this? This is sort of an innocuous trade that actually helps save taxpayers money in the bond market. Walk us through the basis trade and why there is scrutiny of it right now? Yeah, in fact, you're front running another story I have covered. Helpful get it out before you do. But yeah, it's been interesting. Like you said, we've had the FED, the BIS, A lot of regulators say hey, we'll worry the side of the size of this basis trade is gotten as jig as it was like in March twenty twenty, and we know what happened then. But yeah, normally this is kind of like you say, picking pennies up under steamroller. You're shorting the futures, you're buying the cash. If you take it to you know, to expiration of the futures, they should converge and where they see some discrepancies, some price discrepancies, that's why you'll do that trade. Where the risk comes in is that most of that is done using leverage, meaning using the repo market to finance the treasury side. So you have the risk that's what happened in like twenty nineteen, that repo rates go crazy for whatever reason and you just can't keep funding this trade. On the flip side when volatility picks up, as you know in futures, you tend to get margin calls. It's just part of the metrics. And so if you started getting margin calls on the short side, so you know, things can just go awry on both sides and all of a sudden, you know you just can't keep in this trade. Then there's a mass exit. That's the way that there's a problem when everyone's running on the same way, right and no one can get out. And remember Mike, in twenty twenty, we had people saying, hey, I had a good trade, I couldn't even get out of that because there's just no liquidity, right. Well, that's what I wanted to ask. Don't we want it to be a little bit of a sleepy market that you know, foreign central banks and the Fed and others you know, use and can count on to be kind of trade a certain way. I mean, don't we to some extent they need to care about the composition of buyers or are we just glad that there are buyers in this market. We do care about the composition for sure, and obviously, like just to give perspective, So those big traditional buyers, including the FED, commercial banks, foreign buyers used to count for seventy five percent of the ownership of the treasury market. That number now is fifty five percent. So this is a very big drop. And speaking to different experts who've been following this for a year, a lot of people saying that in a case where there's a little like a slightly bigger shock, probably there will be very sharp moves, and the market is more fragile to those moves that and it was in the past because obviously hedge funds are a big part. They're very price sensitive, but mutual are also growing fast, pension funds are growing fast. They're not necessarily moving as fast as hedge funds obviously, but are sensitive to macro events. So all those different participants are a lot more likely to react on who knows the next banking news or oil prices or any of those little things. But hedge funds have always been a part of this market, right, it is now there a bigger part we know, percentage wise. Yeah, they have tripled in the past year. So currently they own two point three trillion, which is close to ten percent of the treasury market. Which makes me wonder if he gets sleepy again, Mike, do they just run in the other direction right to make money? Yeah, and it makes me You know, the dirty word in macroland is are you a tourist in this market? Yeah? Are you really a macro fund who's used to this trade and knows what to do? Or are you taking riskue you're an equity manager, you know. I've seen a few headlines out this week Bill Ackman with shortening treasuries, he's changed his mind. He's now covering that shere Stan, Truck and Miller are a very wealth known hedge fund manager used to work with George Sourez without saying he's very bullish treasuries. So is that at least the tourist sort of mentality. Does it seem like the consensus is we've seen the peak and yields, it's now time to back up the truck and start going along the treasury market? Do you think? I think the peak is for sure, very important, but it's also very important that for a very long time it was the direction of trouble was very sure. And obviously like the Fed is likely to continue rowing off its bounce sheet, so them being a smaller portion of it guarantees more volatility, whether those traits are whether short bonds will still be a successful trade. Obviously this is this is going back to the debate where we've seen the peak, but the fact that they're more say realty value trades or or you know, basis traits or things where you can exploit that volatility stace. No matter whether we've reached dot peakids I wonder too, Liz, come on back in. I mean what you make for someoney who's also followed this, you know for a long time in terms of the bond market and treasury trade to see a greater role of hedge funds. I do wonder, listen. They love volatility, right, they want things to move. That's how you make money and quickly for investors. But I do wonder does that potentially, you know, or could it spell trouble? We always talk about right, these changing rate environments, and you know, as the tide goes out, like we get to see all the problems and we you know, could it create some kind of crisis many or otherwise in the future. Well, I have to say, and I wouldn't be doing a good service. And maybe Treasury Department will still talk to me if I do mention that. John Josh Frost, to the Treasury Department Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets, said publicly in a press conference. Listen, we still have a very diverse buyer base. We're not lying on any one type of investor or group of investors. So they're saying, hey, we're doing fine. But to your point, Carol, I think that is why regulators worry like they're zoning in on leverage of things, but you don't want a massive positioning and with one group of investors, who if they go the other way, you just create this groundswell of movement and they take everyone else out in the process. So I think that's the risk when any trade gets too big, especially when it's leveraged, that's a problem. But like I said, Treasury saying, we're okay, we're looking at all this, but we still have enough folks that want to buy our stuff that we're not concerned. But like, who knows well to see what happens for now? How? Yeah? Yeah, Well, let's I wonder you know that that expression crowded trade comes to mind with a story like this. I mean, is there enough diversity in sort of the trades going on or is there a risk of crowding in certain trades, especially you know when you look at how the yield curve is really steepened pretty aggressively in the last couple month, you know, is that potentially a crowded trade or you know, are there any pockets of crowded trades we should think about in this market right now? Well? I would say I think the biggest one is the basis, even though some people argue there's reasons it's not as big, But I keep saying, like Denisa says, it's this debate have yields peaked and that I think people keep getting burned, you know. I mean, we've seen a massive fall today, but that yields have peaked, let me just load up, bring up the truck and buy them, and then yields go up again. And so I think that's where the risk is that people are trying to just can't seem to time this market right, you know. So that's creating the extra volatility, not just from the hedge funds but just regular macro funds, et cetera, thinking it's time now. Maybe they're okay in the long run because this will come back. But I think that's the risk that people just can't seem to get a clarity for sure where rates are going. Yeah, right, exactly. The crystal ball is really muddy right now, Deniza. Just to bring it back to how you guys kick off this story the founder of long Tail Alpha and talking to him, does it feel like it's a trade he plans to be in for a long time or is it something he's like, Yeah, this is maybe a one or two your thing or I don't know. Yeah, I think this is not including the story. But he actually said that probably the best time for this trade is yet to come. As cliche as that is, but this is something we've also heard. We talked to people, of course, I mean, what else could he say, But we also talk to people like who are selling trading algorithms and who very you know, have a very good perception where the basis trade is growing, and they're saying that in the past three months they've seen the most demand they've seen for these type of things, and obviously they have interest in saying that this will continue to be strong. But this is this is a thing we're saying. So for sure, there are numerous players in this space that are saying that as long as there is uncertainty of peakios, as long as the FED is rowing off his bounce sheets, as long as we see that volatility, uh, there may be more appetite for those things. Feels like we could see some more volatility, guys. Thank you so much. Bloomberg News process that reporter Deniza Zakova along with Bloomberg News, she correspondent for Global Macro Markets Liz McCormick. This story in the new upcoming issue of Bloomberg Business Week, on newstands tomorrow, already on the Bloomberg and already online at Bloomberg dot Com. I'm brother Marco, the journal. Now about you. Let me drive? No no, no no, no, please going to drive, honey, please, I'll do the gravels. Let's wat I want to try it. It's good question that try. This is the drive to the clothes dot com tek we'll buy around fold it on Bloomberg Radio and a very good afternoon, everybody. Welcome to Bloomberg Business Week live in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio, streaming on YouTube than Bloomberg Originals. It is a FED Wednesday, as you've been listening on TV and across Bloomberg channels. FED Wednesday, the first day of November, and the FED holding rates at a twenty two year high for a second straight meeting, and the FED Chief Jay Powell asking should we be hiking more? Which I feel like sets the tone. I'm Carol Masser. Tim Stanovec is off today and with us as Bloomberg's Mike Reagan, and I do feel like Mike. There was a lot of things where they He kind of continued to remind us that inflation is still elevated, and I feel like they might not be done yet. Yeah, I mean, and I don't think he said anything too new today really changed the outlook for interest rates at all. But we do have this really wild rally in the stock and the bond market right now, So I wonder you know how much of that is sort of people caught on the short end, short selling both stocks and bonds before this and now having to cover. I'm not one hundred percent convinced you can trust this as sort of the markets interpretation of what he's saying. Right you think about how they were positioning ahead of all of this and thinking it was going to be a lot more negga, Yeah, and so often, you know, we see these reactions in the market the day of a FED press conference and then wake up the next morning and wait a minute, everyone, wait twenty four hour cycle that hasn't happened before this year. It's a really good point. But we are seeing equities hold and it's pretty broad based buying. Let's get back to the markets. It is a FED Wednesday. Stocks are ralling. We've seen yields back off, and lucky for us on our drive to the close on this FED Wednesday is Amanda Gotti. She's chief investment officer at P and C Asset Management, joining us once again out there on zoom in Philadelphia. Amanda, there's a rally underway in stocks. Yields have backed off. I think Mike makes a great point that maybe some investors were caught off guard expecting a much more negative tone or negative description statement whatever from the Federal Reserve. Do you discount the trade today? Oh? Absolutely, I discount the trade. I mean, there's no question that sentiment has been pretty lousy in the last you know, four to six weeks. Yields of move rapidly higher. We think very crowded positioning at one end. So there's a scurrying around that's happening here into the close today to reposition. But I'm not sure that we learned a lot of new information. I mean, I think it's hard for me to say that Powell had his hawk costume on for Halloween. Maybe it was a little bit lighter of a tone than he has been recently. But the door is still very much open for additional tighter policy from here. So we think this rally is going to be short lived. And I know you're in Philadelphia, and I think we should make a deal not to discuss the Phillies at all during this interview. Thank you, I appreciate that. Yeah, yeah, me too. But I wonder, as October, for all the wrong reasons, I was in a hotel with the Arizona team when they lost. Uh yeah, am I wrong? Well they lost, they lost a few games in Philly, but they ended up winning the series. Hey, we're not going to talk about it, Carol, all right, Okay, still too soon now, I mean, you know, we're going to talk later in the show about sort of this wild year of volatility in the bond market. And I wonder, just as a professional in these markets, what's it like coming in every day and seeing these wild moves in the treasury market, you know, this market we were so accustomed to being quiet and sort of boring, you know, And what do you think is needed to calm it down? Well, it's a great question. It's almost an unanswerable one at the moment here. I think as investors we've been conditioned to a hashtag high volatility regime for quite some time now. I mean, think about the last three years of unprecedented challenges and return negative returns in the bond market, so we're starting to get conditioned to this. But I think at the end of the day, it's all a function of this unprecedented policy accommodation that came in at the onset of the pandemic and now this unprecedented unwinding. At the end of the day, it's just going to take a lot longer. I keep saying longer for longer. It's not higher for longer, it's longer for longer. Everything about this is just going to take longer to normalize than what investors would like. And I think it's, you know, again, kind of just hammering the same thing that I feel like Mike and I kind of agree in terms of what we got from Japwell, the risks of doing too little. They're worried about that, even though he's stressed right out of the gate, we've got a dual mandate and that eventually maybe some of this will start to work its way into the labor side of the equation. The risks of doing too little is certainly I feel like top of mind for him, absolutely, and we agree with that that's why we continue to think that the door is potentially open for some tighter policy ahead. I think the key question is whether the market has done the Fed's job for it or not. And he even acknowledged that a little bit that with the I think the market has done enough of the job for the FED at this point. I think it's done enough at the moment. I mean, think about the you know, one hundred bases points that we've seen a move here in the longer term portion of the curve. It's been a very violent move, no matter how you slice and dice it. And so I think for now we're definitely in sufficiently restrictive territory. But there's still plenty of ammo from an economic data perspective to go further here. Economic growth continues to come in pretty strong. Ism report today gave a very polar opposite story here, but US consumer is still very strong, inflation not to the long term target, So I think there is room. I think we just need to, as Pale said, let some of the lagged effects of this policy work its way through here. But we are definitely in restrictive territory for sure. Yo. I meta one of the themes this year is the yield curve, you know, the difference between yields on shorter term debt and longer term debt. And we've been living with this inverted curve for a long time where the shorter maturity debt is yielding more than the longer maturity debt. We have seen this very aggressive steepening in the last few months, and you had a really interesting point in your note to us talking about that steepening of the curve, and it's a very unique thing that's happening, this bear steepening of the curve while it's inverted. What's the takeaway from that, Well, I think it's an interesting dynamic because we of course have this inverted yield curve, it's been consistently inverted for the better part of a year plus, but we're also having this bear steepening phenomenon. And usually when you see that start to come into the equation, it's like, oh, here's the signal for something's going to crack in the backdrop. But it's actually only happened once in the last fifty years where we've had both of these dynamics in play that you don't usually see them together, and so the one time that we have in history was right before the nineteen sixty nine nineteen seventy recession began. And so one data point does not make a trend. It's not a perfect guide or predictor for what's to come next. But we do think the net effect is just a lot of pressure on high valuation stocks and the long end of the curve too. All right, we've got to run. Hey, listen, Amanda, Thank you so much, so appreciate. Amanda A. Gotti of URPNC. This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcast. Listen live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg journaloneSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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AGCO CEO on Harvesting Tech for the Future of Farming

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 1, 2023 39:58 Transcription Available

Eric Hansotia, Chief Executive Officer at AGCO, discusses growth, technology and sustainability in the agriculture industry. theSkimm Co-Founder Danielle Weisberg talks about their Show Us Your Child Care initiative. Bloomberg News Chief Correspondent for Global Macro Markets Liz McCormick and Bloomberg News Cross Asset Reporter Denitsa Tsekova provide the details of their Businessweek Magazine story Hedge Funds Turbocharge Volatility in Cratering US Bond Market. And we Drive to the Close with Amanda Agati, Chief Investment Officer at PNC Asset Management Group.Hosts: Carol Massar and Mike Regan. Producer: Paul Brennan. FULL TRANSCRIPT: This is Bloomberg Business. Wait inside from the reporters and editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio. Well shares at Adco. Check it out, everybody, They're up our third day, They're at more than six percent in that time. Company reported earnings yesterday morning, of which third quarter just at EPs was a big beat. Third quarter net sales in line with expectations, and the maker of tractors and combines also said it still sees fiscal year net sales of about fourteen point seven billion, slightly above street estimates, with fiscal year just ADPs of about fifteen dollars seventy five cents a share. That's fifty cents above the company's earlier forecasts. Three analysts nonetheless cutting their price targets on the company by an average of three and a half percent since it reported yesterday. So let's get to it. We have a great guest. We have the CEO, Chairman, President and CEO at ADCO, Eric Hansotea. Excuse me, Eric Hensotia, He's on zoom from Duluth, Georgia, and he joins, us, forgive me, forgive me. I'm trying to race to get to you. So I apologize. Eric. Oh you good, no problem, Really great to have you here with us. First of all, how are you? And I do have to ask you about the FED? In an environment where the FED says, you know, we could still continue raising rates, we're still worried about inflation. Does that kind of mesh with the outlook that you see? Well, your first question was how am I doing great? Just couldn't be happier with the progress that our company is having relative to our strategy. We're going to have two billion more in sales this year, We're going to grow margins significantly relative to the and it's all in line with our high tech focus on being the industry leader and smart farming machines relatively to the FED. You know, interest rates do weigh on farmers' minds. These are big as they carry a lot of technology. They're expensive machines, many times half a million to a million dollars, and so they often finance those machines, and higher interest rates are part of the part of the decision. I'm expecting that we're you know, at a high plateau and that we're more likely over the coming year to have red rates go down then up, and that would be welcomed by our customers, you know, Eric, I'm looking at the revenue growth of ag CO over the years and really some impressive growth there. Twenty twenty one is up, twenty two, twenty twenty two up fourteen percent, sixteen percent. This year, it does, at least according to analyst estimates, look like you might be in for a dip in revenue last year. And I'm wondering what's the what's driving that? Is that entirely an interest rate story or is there is there something else going on? It's actually very little related to interest rates. Agriculture often is not connected, not correlated highly with the regular GDP growth. It's more tied to the agricultural agricultural economy. So the price of corn, wheat, soybeans, and that's a function of how much green there is in the world. For the last two or three years, there's been green shortages and so green prices have been high. That means more profit for our farmers. Now they've had a great year this year in terms of harvest and so there's a little bit more stock prices have come down a bit, and that's really more what drives farmer profitability and then turn their interest to purchase equipment. Hey, Eric, what I wonder is longer term how you guys think about the business, how you plan, because I wonder if things like weather, climate change, demographics globally, is that more significant in terms of how you think about the growth longer term? And if so, what does that maybe indicate to you. Yeah, that's a great point, Carol. So we see three macro tailwinds plus this weather factor. So let me touch those real quickly. Number One, we're moving from eight billion people to ten billion people between now and twenty fifty. Number two, emerging economies are adding more meat to their diet as they do that. That's a multiplier on the demand for green chicken is a two to one multiplier, beef is a ten to one multiplier. And then third is renewable fuels, so ethanol in the United States. But now the next one is renewable diesel. Ethanol consumes forty percent of the corn crop today. Renewable diesel is likely going to grow to that same kind of proportion over the next few years. Those are all macro tailwinds that cause the farmer to have higher yields and more pressure on higher yields. And then weather is another one. We're having more severe droughts and more severe floods every year that reduces the overall global global ability to produce cream. So you add those four factors together and the farmers are pushed to have higher yields while using less inputs, less fertilizer, pesticide, chemicals and things like that, and so there's a big squeeze for productivity. Using our technology, we're using artificial intelligence on our now to be able to use vision systems so identify the difference between a weed and a plant as a machine's going through the field and spray only the weed, saving like seventy percent of the chemical and a lot of automation of features throughout all of our products. Can you say, I'm assuming you've been using AI for a long time though, right, Yes, we have. Across many of our machines. We use AI to understand the variation in soil or crop and have the machine learn over time to be able to optimize itself real time in the field. It's amazing because when you think of AI. The last thing I think most people think of is farm labor. Do you think of machines though, I think a machine. Well, Eric made a great point and I wanted to ask about this. Is right at the beginning, you said that technology aspect of your business is so important, and again, if you're not really familiar with ACO, you might not think about that. But one thing I wanted to ask about, Eric, and full disclosure, I'm not an expert on tractors. In fact, I hire a kid to cut my own grass, so I'm really I've driven a tract, this big one. There we go. So I'm coming at this from a pure ignorance state of mind. But I would think that self driving technology would be easier to implement on the farm with a tractor. But from my understanding is it's not really I wonder if you could talk to us a little about where you are with that type of technology. You know what we see it anytime soon? Or is it just, for whatever reason, too complicated to have self driving tractors. It's a great topic. It's at the heart of our strategy is putting technology on machines to have the machine be smarter and be able to do more things for the customer. I talked about the sprayer. We're automating all our functions on all of our machines. We've increased our engineering spend by sixty percent over the last three or four years since we started a strategy. We've bought six tech companies. We just announced the biggest AGG tech deal in history with Trimble agg where is over a two billion dollar deal to bring those to their technology and our technology together. So technology is a big deal. Now let's talk about the autonomy question. Already, guidance, which Trimble is is one of the world leaders in is used by farmers once they get into the field. They get into the field and they already turn on auto steer, which is a satellite driven guidance, tip the steering wheel out of the way and the machine steers for itself. Now it's still supervised today, but most large AGG has is the machine is doing the steering for itself. We've committed when we were in Wall Street last week last year, we committed that by the end of the decades, so twenty thirty, we would have the full crop cycle, meaning planting, spring, tractors, harvesting, all autonomous with no driver in them, and by twenty twenty five we'd have a retrofit kit that would be able to be put on an existing machine to make it autonomous. So it's a more contained environment. There's not so much other traffic and other things in the way, and you can stop. You don't have a lot of other traffic around, so you can if there's runs into a situation hasn't seen before, the machine will just failsafe mode is stop and then you can remotely view into it and restart it. It's like about right, there's lots of move there's a lot of space around you. Autopilots work really really well. Hey, in twenty twenty four, what do we expect for your company? Do you see higher prices due to inflation continuing And just got about forty seconds. Yeah, yeah, prices are going to moderate. You know, these last couple of years, we put a lot of pricing into the market, more than our a little bit more than our cost. We expect to still put more than our cost into the market because of all this technology we're bringing in the value it generates. But inflation is coming down pretty significantly for us, and so we think it'll be much more normalized. You know, we haven't given guidance, but it'll be more in the mid to low single digits than where we've been before. Any any kind of peak ten seconds in terms of the ag machinery market, do you see any kind of peeking out just very quickly. Well, we've still got strong demand going into next year. Our order boards are out six or seven months on large egg. We're sold out for our seasonal products. We're all through Mighty Year twenty four, so we still see twenty four as a good year, although getting more normalized. All right, love it, listen, come back soon, so appreciate it. Eric Hansodia He is chairman, president CEO at AGCO on zoom from Duluth, Georgia, So appreciate your time. On this Wednesday, you're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern Listen on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube. All right, we're going to switch gears a little bit off of earnings. Talk about the skim. It's a non partisan digital media company catering to women. It's a subscription newsletter company to offer up things like the daily Skim Skim Money. There's also a podcast and a lot more in terms of what they do the privately held company. Their investors include GV which was formerly Google Ventures. Also Disney. We just heard Denise talk about Disney when it comes to the Hulu ownership. Ventures is another investor in the company. We talked with both of the founders back in March, and great to have back with us this time around. The Skim co founder Danielle Weisberg. She's on Zoom in New York City. Danielle, how are you. I'm good, Thanks so much for having me here today. Before we get into some specifics, I always like to talk perspective. You guys have been around for more than a decade. It's been a few months, about six months or so since we last talked. Talk to us about, you know, how business is doing this year, and just talk to us about how you see the environment right now. Yeah, So you know, listen, you guys are in this day in and day out in terms of public companies, and I think that when it comes to this environment, we know ADS spending has been really up and down. It's been tenuous. I think that when those budgets flex, the biggest thing that you can rely on is a direct relationship with a sought after customer. And at the Skim we have been representing millions of win women for over a decade. Our audience is the people that you want to reach and that you need to reach. They are the ones that are making ninety five percent of household purchasing and spending decisions. So while the overall media landscape continues to have challenges, we've certainly felt that, but at the Skim, what we come back to again and again is what you can't duplicate and what you can't just start overnight, which is a real direct relationship with a group of women who look for look for us every single day. How big is that group? Just remind us in terms of your reaction base over twelve million women. Wow, that's a lot. That is a lot. Are you just remind me to only subscription based or no, there's ad dollars that comes in. No, we have a differentiated revenue model. So we have sponsorship, we have subscription, and actually our fastest growing line of revenue has been commerce. Danielle, at the Skin, you have a very interesting initiative going on called show us your Childcare, Talk to us a little bit about what that is, what the goal of that is. Yeah, so it's a good day to talk about it because there was I don't know if you guys saw this, but there was a report today where we were finally able to look at data in comparison to childcare costs in twenty nineteen. So the price of childcare is up thirty two percent. That means that many families can't afford to both work, and that price search outpaysd overall inflation. I mean, when you look back this year, how much time have we spent reporting on inflation and thinking about what that is doing to families and the decisions that they're having to make, and think about then what it means to say childcare costs are going beyond that. And again this isn't new. This child share share childcare crisis has been in existence for years and the pandemic only made that worse. And in fact, the only time that there has been an investment the US has ever made a sizable investment in childcare was during the pandemic. And when that pandemic era funding expired, which it did, there were no other solutions offered. So it's leaving about three point two million children and their families without childcare options, and that is absolutely just unacceptable. We have an economy that more and more relies on parents, both of them to work, and to do that, you need to make sure that your kids have proper care. Right Listen, you're preaching to the choir. Nobody's going to like get. We totally agree. We talk so much here, I feel like about the lack of affordable daycare or childcare, if you will, for many, many millions of Americans. Other countries seem to have figured it out. You guys, have a partnership and talk to us a little bit about it with moms first. You're partnering also with companies such as Verizon, MasterCards, show Banni on this. Tell us what specifically are you are doing to kind of impact this problem or the situation. Yeah, So we launched hashtags show us your Childcare. And this is the second real civic action campaign that we've lost that we've launched. The first was hashtag show us Your Leave. And what we believe is really matching areas with there is a disconnect for what the government is doing so. Again, childcare has not been something that's been solved by Democrats in leadership or Republicans, and so because of that, we again have really needed the private sector to step up. And I think that this is a time when there's not one right way to know how to support your business through a childcare cliff. But how best do you think the private sector can do it? I think many would argue, yeah, maybe the government doesn't need to be involved, that there are private sectors that have definitely been very profitable and that as a benefit, or to help out their workers to make it easier, or in a tight labor force, bring more workers in to actually provide childcare. So what are the one or two things that can really make a difference here. Well, the first is use it to attract and retain talent. So this is a big way to make your policies transparent. Use our hashtag show us your childcare. And that's where we've gotten over eighty companies such as Pinterest, Shobani, ww ets, Verizon to make their policies transparent. And what that does is it really virtue signals that you care about families and that you are going to put your money where your mouth is. But what any of those companies actually do, That's what I'm curious about. What do they do that actually helps people with their childcare needs. Yeah, so it's everything from flexible work hours to cash stipends to put towards childcare costs. One of the things that we do at the SKIM is team up with a partner VB to make sure that there's backup care options. So we offer kind of a bank of credits those days when you have normal childcare but you need a plan B your childcare provider is closed or someone sick. So it really runs the gamut to onsite childcare centers. And again, you know, it's going to depend on the size of your business how much you're able to invest. But there are different things out there, and we want to make sure that that's part of the conversation when it comes to benefits. And I imagine there's a pretty good economic incentive for some companies to get more engaged with childcare. Is that a selling point of this initiative? And Daniel just got about twenty seconds. Yeah, I think it is, and I think overall as a society, we should all make sure that we have a growing workforce that we have nice things like social securities, and to do that, we need to make sure that women stay in the workforce. So I think overall there's a benefit there, but there's also investing employees they'll stay longer. All Right, we got to run, Thank you so much, A very timely issued something we've been talking about. Bloomberg. This give co founder Danielle Weisberg on zoom in New York City. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. Yeah. One man's loss is another one's game. That is definitely cocky. Attention of the hedge fund industry on this FED decision day Wednesday, if you will, the US Treasury, you know, trade is definitely on our minds, Mike. The funny thing is it's been on our minds a lot this year, amid big swings in the trade volatility in any given day, we've seen tremendous swings. Yeah. Absolutely, and it's fascinating to see sort of new classes of hedge funds get involved in the treasury market. You know, there's certain macro funds that are always president there. But whenever I see the name long tail Alpha, you know, a tail risk catch fund, I know something's gone wrong somewhere when these guys are actively involved in the trade. So I think that's the case with the story. Well, let's get to it, because it's a story that is reported out in the new issue of Bloomberg Business Week. Let's get into what's going on, as I said in the upcoming new issue on newsstands tomorrow, already online a Bloomberg dot com slash business Week, and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. So let's get to it. Bloomberg News Chief correspondent for Global macro Markets, Liz McCormick is with us. She is on zoom in New Jersey, and also with us is Bloomberg News crossauset reporter Denisatsakova. She's here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. Guys, so great to have you here with us. It is in BusinessWeek, the upcoming new issue, which will be out on newsstands tomorrow. Denise, let's start with you. I'm curious about the conversation in the newsroom. Joel has a tendency they'll kind of walk around the newsroom and like kind of poke people about stories. How did this story come about? What was the conversation or did you know one of you say like, you should see what hedge fund guys are up to, So tell us how this came to be. Yeah, so it came back to that theme. We've talked a lot about price sensitive and price incentensitive buyers, so we wanted to look into who are really those new buyers, and hedgephone's a big part of it. And obviously, like if you think of just generally trading treasuries and think of it as the safest market and kind of a little bit slower moving market compared to I don't know, compared to equities, currencies, I don't know. So the conversation came, how has the day of those people changed? And this is what we ask them, So won't tail Alpha ven year's day is very different? You know. The first anecdote is he wakes up every two hours to check the prices, and you know, it's being there on your Bloomberg terminal or whatever. You check your prices all the time and following every little move and then every small data release is very important and potentially it can make you move things. And obviously, like some of those traits have voice trades, sometimes you have to be in the and look at all those releases together decide where you have to make moves. And you can imagine this is very different than I don't know, five years ago, when the FED was such a big important buyer and prices maybe weren't as sensitive to those things. Yeah, this is why I'm not a tail risk hedge fund. That that well, well, I want to bring listen to this conversation, Liz, because we talk about the extreme volatility that we see in the US bond market this year. So are they playing our hedge fund guys and gals, if you will, playing a significant role in that volatility? Well? Yeah, right? Is it circular? Right? And they like the volatility, they come in, they create more volatility, right, So it kind of feeds on itself and then more it becomes and I have to do a shout out. I know Tracy Alloway at some point did a story treasury is trading like a meme stock, so we have to book that one up. But that it becomes like, you know, what was it? Oh, I think Mike Reagan must have edited one of these stories we did where there was other things that were like the hot things that was crypto. And now look at this treasuries even today, look at the yields across the curve. It's like down, you know, over fifteen bases points. It's crazy. So I think hedge fund's coming in because there's more volatility and trading than that adds to it. But they do kind of on the flip side say hey, we're adding to the liquidity, we're you know, making markets. And Deniza knows. Today we had the refunding today and they had their barring committee, which the Treasury always does look into different things. One of them was like the demand base, and they brought up things that were in our story, not that it was from our story, but that the buying base has changed. You know, you have less commercial banks, foreign central banks, you have more households and hedge funds you know, involved in the treasury market. So it's kind of interesting that they brought that up today. Mike did call it a meme stock by the way early. Yeah, I really wanted to take credit for that, but of course Liz Tracy's way ahead of me as usual. But Liz, you know, one of the sort of standard bread and butter hedge fund trades when it comes to the treasury market is something known as the basis trade, which basically looks to profit between discrepancies in the price of bond futures and the actual bonds trading in the cash market. That seems to be kicking into high gear this year, and there's a bit of a backlash to that from the government and some scrutiny about what hedge funds are doing. I know, it's created its own backlash to the backlash, Ken Griffin coming out and saying, why do they care about this? This is sort of an innocuous trade that actually helps save taxpayers money in the bond market. Walk us through the basis trade and why there is scrutiny of it right now? Yeah, in fact, you're front running another story I have covered. Helpful get it out before you do. But yeah, it's been interesting. Like you said, we've had the FED, the BIS, A lot of regulators say hey, we'll worry the side of the size of this basis trade is gotten as jig as it was like in March twenty twenty, and we know what happened then. But yeah, normally this is kind of like you say, picking pennies up under steamroller. You're shorting the futures, you're buying the cash. If you take it to you know, to expiration of the futures, they should converge and where they see some discrepancies, some price discrepancies, that's why you'll do that trade. Where the risk comes in is that most of that is done using leverage, meaning using the repo market to finance the treasury side. So you have the risk that's what happened in like twenty nineteen, that repo rates go crazy for whatever reason and you just can't keep funding this trade. On the flip side when volatility picks up, as you know in futures, you tend to get margin calls. It's just part of the metrics. And so if you started getting margin calls on the short side, so you know, things can just go awry on both sides and all of a sudden, you know you just can't keep in this trade. Then there's a mass exit. That's the way that there's a problem when everyone's running on the same way, right and no one can get out. And remember Mike, in twenty twenty, we had people saying, hey, I had a good trade, I couldn't even get out of that because there's just no liquidity, right. Well, that's what I wanted to ask. Don't we want it to be a little bit of a sleepy market that you know, foreign central banks and the Fed and others you know, use and can count on to be kind of trade a certain way. I mean, don't we to some extent they need to care about the composition of buyers or are we just glad that there are buyers in this market. We do care about the composition for sure, and obviously, like just to give perspective, So those big traditional buyers, including the FED, commercial banks, foreign buyers used to count for seventy five percent of the ownership of the treasury market. That number now is fifty five percent. So this is a very big drop. And speaking to different experts who've been following this for a year, a lot of people saying that in a case where there's a little like a slightly bigger shock, probably there will be very sharp moves, and the market is more fragile to those moves that and it was in the past because obviously hedge funds are a big part. They're very price sensitive, but mutual are also growing fast, pension funds are growing fast. They're not necessarily moving as fast as hedge funds obviously, but are sensitive to macro events. So all those different participants are a lot more likely to react on who knows the next banking news or oil prices or any of those little things. But hedge funds have always been a part of this market, right, it is now there a bigger part we know, percentage wise. Yeah, they have tripled in the past year. So currently they own two point three trillion, which is close to ten percent of the treasury market. Which makes me wonder if he gets sleepy again, Mike, do they just run in the other direction right to make money? Yeah, and it makes me You know, the dirty word in macroland is are you a tourist in this market? Yeah? Are you really a macro fund who's used to this trade and knows what to do? Or are you taking riskue you're an equity manager, you know. I've seen a few headlines out this week Bill Ackman with shortening treasuries, he's changed his mind. He's now covering that shere Stan, Truck and Miller are a very wealth known hedge fund manager used to work with George Sourez without saying he's very bullish treasuries. So is that at least the tourist sort of mentality. Does it seem like the consensus is we've seen the peak and yields, it's now time to back up the truck and start going along the treasury market? Do you think? I think the peak is for sure, very important, but it's also very important that for a very long time it was the direction of trouble was very sure. And obviously like the Fed is likely to continue rowing off its bounce sheet, so them being a smaller portion of it guarantees more volatility, whether those traits are whether short bonds will still be a successful trade. Obviously this is this is going back to the debate where we've seen the peak, but the fact that they're more say realty value trades or or you know, basis traits or things where you can exploit that volatility stace. No matter whether we've reached dot peakids I wonder too, Liz, come on back in. I mean what you make for someoney who's also followed this, you know for a long time in terms of the bond market and treasury trade to see a greater role of hedge funds. I do wonder, listen. They love volatility, right, they want things to move. That's how you make money and quickly for investors. But I do wonder does that potentially, you know, or could it spell trouble? We always talk about right, these changing rate environments, and you know, as the tide goes out, like we get to see all the problems and we you know, could it create some kind of crisis many or otherwise in the future. Well, I have to say, and I wouldn't be doing a good service. And maybe Treasury Department will still talk to me if I do mention that. John Josh Frost, to the Treasury Department Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets, said publicly in a press conference. Listen, we still have a very diverse buyer base. We're not lying on any one type of investor or group of investors. So they're saying, hey, we're doing fine. But to your point, Carol, I think that is why regulators worry like they're zoning in on leverage of things, but you don't want a massive positioning and with one group of investors, who if they go the other way, you just create this groundswell of movement and they take everyone else out in the process. So I think that's the risk when any trade gets too big, especially when it's leveraged, that's a problem. But like I said, Treasury saying, we're okay, we're looking at all this, but we still have enough folks that want to buy our stuff that we're not concerned. But like, who knows well to see what happens for now? How? Yeah? Yeah, Well, let's I wonder you know that that expression crowded trade comes to mind with a story like this. I mean, is there enough diversity in sort of the trades going on or is there a risk of crowding in certain trades, especially you know when you look at how the yield curve is really steepened pretty aggressively in the last couple month, you know, is that potentially a crowded trade or you know, are there any pockets of crowded trades we should think about in this market right now? Well? I would say I think the biggest one is the basis, even though some people argue there's reasons it's not as big, But I keep saying, like Denisa says, it's this debate have yields peaked and that I think people keep getting burned, you know. I mean, we've seen a massive fall today, but that yields have peaked, let me just load up, bring up the truck and buy them, and then yields go up again. And so I think that's where the risk is that people are trying to just can't seem to time this market right, you know. So that's creating the extra volatility, not just from the hedge funds but just regular macro funds, et cetera, thinking it's time now. Maybe they're okay in the long run because this will come back. But I think that's the risk that people just can't seem to get a clarity for sure where rates are going. Yeah, right, exactly. The crystal ball is really muddy right now, Deniza. Just to bring it back to how you guys kick off this story the founder of long Tail Alpha and talking to him, does it feel like it's a trade he plans to be in for a long time or is it something he's like, Yeah, this is maybe a one or two your thing or I don't know. Yeah, I think this is not including the story. But he actually said that probably the best time for this trade is yet to come. As cliche as that is, but this is something we've also heard. We talked to people, of course, I mean, what else could he say, But we also talk to people like who are selling trading algorithms and who very you know, have a very good perception where the basis trade is growing, and they're saying that in the past three months they've seen the most demand they've seen for these type of things, and obviously they have interest in saying that this will continue to be strong. But this is this is a thing we're saying. So for sure, there are numerous players in this space that are saying that as long as there is uncertainty of peakios, as long as the FED is rowing off his bounce sheets, as long as we see that volatility, uh, there may be more appetite for those things. Feels like we could see some more volatility, guys. Thank you so much. Bloomberg News process that reporter Deniza Zakova along with Bloomberg News, she correspondent for Global Macro Markets Liz McCormick. This story in the new upcoming issue of Bloomberg Business Week, on newstands tomorrow, already on the Bloomberg and already online at Bloomberg dot Com. I'm brother Marco, the journal. Now about you. Let me drive? No no, no no, no, please going to drive, honey, please, I'll do the gravels. Let's wat I want to try it. It's good question that try. This is the drive to the clothes dot com tek we'll buy around fold it on Bloomberg Radio and a very good afternoon, everybody. Welcome to Bloomberg Business Week live in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio, streaming on YouTube than Bloomberg Originals. It is a FED Wednesday, as you've been listening on TV and across Bloomberg channels. FED Wednesday, the first day of November, and the FED holding rates at a twenty two year high for a second straight meeting, and the FED Chief Jay Powell asking should we be hiking more? Which I feel like sets the tone. I'm Carol Masser. Tim Stanovec is off today and with us as Bloomberg's Mike Reagan, and I do feel like Mike. There was a lot of things where they He kind of continued to remind us that inflation is still elevated, and I feel like they might not be done yet. Yeah, I mean, and I don't think he said anything too new today really changed the outlook for interest rates at all. But we do have this really wild rally in the stock and the bond market right now, So I wonder you know how much of that is sort of people caught on the short end, short selling both stocks and bonds before this and now having to cover. I'm not one hundred percent convinced you can trust this as sort of the markets interpretation of what he's saying. Right you think about how they were positioning ahead of all of this and thinking it was going to be a lot more negga, Yeah, and so often, you know, we see these reactions in the market the day of a FED press conference and then wake up the next morning and wait a minute, everyone, wait twenty four hour cycle that hasn't happened before this year. It's a really good point. But we are seeing equities hold and it's pretty broad based buying. Let's get back to the markets. It is a FED Wednesday. Stocks are ralling. We've seen yields back off, and lucky for us on our drive to the close on this FED Wednesday is Amanda Gotti. She's chief investment officer at P and C Asset Management, joining us once again out there on zoom in Philadelphia. Amanda, there's a rally underway in stocks. Yields have backed off. I think Mike makes a great point that maybe some investors were caught off guard expecting a much more negative tone or negative description statement whatever from the Federal Reserve. Do you discount the trade today? Oh? Absolutely, I discount the trade. I mean, there's no question that sentiment has been pretty lousy in the last you know, four to six weeks. Yields of move rapidly higher. We think very crowded positioning at one end. So there's a scurrying around that's happening here into the close today to reposition. But I'm not sure that we learned a lot of new information. I mean, I think it's hard for me to say that Powell had his hawk costume on for Halloween. Maybe it was a little bit lighter of a tone than he has been recently. But the door is still very much open for additional tighter policy from here. So we think this rally is going to be short lived. And I know you're in Philadelphia, and I think we should make a deal not to discuss the Phillies at all during this interview. Thank you, I appreciate that. Yeah, yeah, me too. But I wonder, as October, for all the wrong reasons, I was in a hotel with the Arizona team when they lost. Uh yeah, am I wrong? Well they lost, they lost a few games in Philly, but they ended up winning the series. Hey, we're not going to talk about it, Carol, all right, Okay, still too soon now, I mean, you know, we're going to talk later in the show about sort of this wild year of volatility in the bond market. And I wonder, just as a professional in these markets, what's it like coming in every day and seeing these wild moves in the treasury market, you know, this market we were so accustomed to being quiet and sort of boring, you know, And what do you think is needed to calm it down? Well, it's a great question. It's almost an unanswerable one at the moment here. I think as investors we've been conditioned to a hashtag high volatility regime for quite some time now. I mean, think about the last three years of unprecedented challenges and return negative returns in the bond market, so we're starting to get conditioned to this. But I think at the end of the day, it's all a function of this unprecedented policy accommodation that came in at the onset of the pandemic and now this unprecedented unwinding. At the end of the day, it's just going to take a lot longer. I keep saying longer for longer. It's not higher for longer, it's longer for longer. Everything about this is just going to take longer to normalize than what investors would like. And I think it's, you know, again, kind of just hammering the same thing that I feel like Mike and I kind of agree in terms of what we got from Japwell, the risks of doing too little. They're worried about that, even though he's stressed right out of the gate, we've got a dual mandate and that eventually maybe some of this will start to work its way into the labor side of the equation. The risks of doing too little is certainly I feel like top of mind for him, absolutely, and we agree with that that's why we continue to think that the door is potentially open for some tighter policy ahead. I think the key question is whether the market has done the Fed's job for it or not. And he even acknowledged that a little bit that with the I think the market has done enough of the job for the FED at this point. I think it's done enough at the moment. I mean, think about the you know, one hundred bases points that we've seen a move here in the longer term portion of the curve. It's been a very violent move, no matter how you slice and dice it. And so I think for now we're definitely in sufficiently restrictive territory. But there's still plenty of ammo from an economic data perspective to go further here. Economic growth continues to come in pretty strong. Ism report today gave a very polar opposite story here, but US consumer is still very strong, inflation not to the long term target, So I think there is room. I think we just need to, as Pale said, let some of the lagged effects of this policy work its way through here. But we are definitely in restrictive territory for sure. Yo. I meta one of the themes this year is the yield curve, you know, the difference between yields on shorter term debt and longer term debt. And we've been living with this inverted curve for a long time where the shorter maturity debt is yielding more than the longer maturity debt. We have seen this very aggressive steepening in the last few months, and you had a really interesting point in your note to us talking about that steepening of the curve, and it's a very unique thing that's happening, this bear steepening of the curve while it's inverted. What's the takeaway from that, Well, I think it's an interesting dynamic because we of course have this inverted yield curve, it's been consistently inverted for the better part of a year plus, but we're also having this bear steepening phenomenon. And usually when you see that start to come into the equation, it's like, oh, here's the signal for something's going to crack in the backdrop. But it's actually only happened once in the last fifty years where we've had both of these dynamics in play that you don't usually see them together, and so the one time that we have in history was right before the nineteen sixty nine nineteen seventy recession began. And so one data point does not make a trend. It's not a perfect guide or predictor for what's to come next. But we do think the net effect is just a lot of pressure on high valuation stocks and the long end of the curve too. All right, we've got to run. Hey, listen, Amanda, Thank you so much, so appreciate. Amanda A. Gotti of URPNC. This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcast. Listen live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg journaloneSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Breaking Down Jackson Hole and Jay Powell (Podcast)

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 25, 2023 29:25 Transcription Available

Joe Weisenthal, host of the Bloomberg Odd Lots podcast, joins from Wyoming to talk about Jay Powell and Jackson Hole. Liz McCormick, Chief Correspondent: Macro Markets with Bloomberg News, joins for an extended roundtable on Jackson Hole and some of her recent economic commentary. RJ Gallo, Senior Portfolio Manager at Federated Hermes, joins to talk about the bond market's recent moves and response to Fed rate hikes as Jay Powell speaks at Jackson Hole. Katerina Simonetti, Senior VP at Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management, joins to discuss sectors she likes and outlook for markets and a potential recession. Hosted by Matt Miller and Simone Foxman.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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The Fed, Big Tech Earnings, Apple, and Barbie (Podcast)

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 24, 2023 51:38 Transcription Available

Liz McCormick, Chief Correspondent of Global Macro Markets with Bloomberg News, and Michael McKee, International Economics and Policy correspondent with Bloomberg News, join to preview the Fed and central bank activity around the globe as well as a potential credit crunch. Dan Ives, Senior Equity Analyst with WedBush Securities, joins to discuss big tech earnings and what we learned from Tesla last week. Brooke Sutherland, Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrials, joins to preview 3M and GE earnings as well as stock performance, a manufacturing recession, and outlook for industrials in the US and supply-related issues amid tensions with China. Ann Miletti, Allspring Global Investment's head of active equity, joins to talk about markets and investing strategies. Lindsay Dutch, REITs and Consumer Hardlines Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss the Barbie movie hit and how it's supposed to affect Mattel's stock, as well as Mattel stock moves ahead of their 2Q earnings report this week. Mark Gurman, Chief Correspondent – Tech and Apple with Bloomberg News, joins the program to discuss Apple aiming to keep iPhone shipments steady in 2023 and other Apple and tech stories. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Madison Mills.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China, QT, Threads, Earnings, and ETFs (Audio)

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 10, 2023 40:32

Eddie Van Der Walt, Deputy Managing Editor of the Markets Live team with Bloomberg News, and Chris Condon, US Treasury Reporter with Bloomberg News, also joins to discuss Janet Yellen's four-day visit to Beijing and political and economic implications of her trip. Liz McCormick, Chief Correspondent: Macro Markets with Bloomberg News, joins to discuss her story on the Fed's “QT Ghosts” and the risks of quantitative tightening. Mandeep Singh, Senior Tech Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to talk about Threads reaching 100 million users in just five days and what it all means for Twitter. Gina Martin Adams, Chief Equity Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to preview earnings season and outlook for inflation data. Hans Dau, CEO at Mitchell Madison Group, joins the show to break down deflationary trends in China and his comparison between 1980s Japan and today's China economy, and why he's compared the two in the past. He further talks about China's outlook and the future of US-China economies relations. Andrew Chanin, CEO of ProcureAM, joins the show to talk about ETF investing and the “Procure Disaster Recovery Strategy ETF." Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Madison Mills.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Debt Ceiling, Markets, Retail, and Diamonds (Podcast)

Play Episode Listen Later May 26, 2023 43:34

Ira Jersey, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, and Anna Wong, Chief US Economist with Bloomberg Economics, join the show to discuss the debt ceiling. Michael McKee also joins the discussion. Phillip Colmar, Managing Partner and Global Strategist at MRB Partners, joins the program to talk about investments he likes and outlook for the markets. Liz McCormick, Chief Correspondent: Macro Markets with Bloomberg News, joins to discuss her Big Take story and the debt ceiling. Dana Telsey, CEO and Chief Research Officer at Telsey Advisory Group, joins to break down the week in retail, earnings and company picks, and outlook for consumers. Beth Gerstein, CEO at Brilliant Earth (NASDAQ: BRLT), joins to discuss the wedding industry, diamond prices, and outlook for engagement/wedding season and consumer strength. Hosted by Kriti Gupta and Madison Mills.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Debt Ceiling, DHL, TikTok, Commodities, and Ukraine (Podcast)

Play Episode Listen Later May 24, 2023 63:16

Ira Jersey, Chief US interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses the debt ceiling and treasuries. Liz McCormick, Chief Correspondent: Global Macro Markets with Bloomberg News, joins to discuss the default scenarios in play should the US not reach a debt deal. Cam Crise, Macro Strategist with Bloomberg News, also joins to discuss how traders are weighing default risks. Mike Parra, CEO: Americas at DHL Express, joins Bloomberg News exclusively to discuss his industry and the supply chain amid dropping inflation. Caroline Hyde, host of Bloomberg Technology, joins us from the Qatar Economic Forum to debrief her interview with TikTok's CEO. Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Tech Analyst Mandeep Singh also joins. Mike McGlone, Senior Macro Strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to talk about energy and commodities, WTI leaning toward $57 a barrel, and “the Big Unwind." Drew Reading, Homebuilding Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss Lowe's earnings. Kevin Brand, Defense Policy Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss hypersonic missile production in the US, how it's used in the war in Ukraine, and the renewed supply chain threats amid China decoupling. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Jess Menton.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Consumer Confidence, AI, Media, and ChatGPT (Podcast)

Play Episode Listen Later May 18, 2023 62:47

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board, joins to discuss the latest consumer confidence index and gives her outlook for the economy. Chris Natividad, co-founder and CIO, and Art Amador, co-founder and COO, of EquBot and the AI Powered Equity ETF, AIEQ issued by join the program to talk investing strategies, ETFs, and markets. Liz McCormick, Chief Correspondent of Global Macro Markets with Bloomberg News, and Bloomberg economics correspondent Mike McKee join to discuss the debt ceiling. Bloomberg News reporter Sonali Basak discusses the death of Sam Zell. Bloomberg Intelligence litigation analyst Matt Schettenhelm discusses Section 230. Erica Adelberg, MBS Strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss her note on mortgage borrower leverage. Laura Martin, Managing Director at Needham, joins us in studio to talk about the ad and media businesses and revisits some of the bold calls from her appearance on our show in January. Norah Mulinda, markets reporter with Bloomberg News, joins to talk about her story on homebuilders capitalizing on limited real estate inventory. Mandeep Singh, Senior Tech Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins to discuss his research on young adopters of ChatGPT. Hosted by Paul Sweeney, Kriti Gupta, and Madison Mills.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Marc Rowan, First Republic, Stagflation, and AI (Podcast)

Play Episode Listen Later May 1, 2023 56:00

Sonali Basak interviews Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan at the Milken Conference in LA. Herman Chan, Senior Analyst; US Regional Banks & Fintech, joins to talk JPMorgan's acquisition of First Republic and outlook for regionals. Liz McCormick, Chief Correspondent of Global Macro Markets with Bloomberg News, discusses the outlook for markets and the potential for stagflation in the US. Tim Urbanowicz, Head of Research and Investment Strategy at Innovator ETFs, joins the program to talk ETF investing and flows. Krishna Gupta, Chairman at Presto Automation (NASDAQ: PRST), joins to discuss AI tech outlook and opportunities. Pat Gallagher, CEO of Gallagher Insurance (Arthur Gallagher & C. NYSE: AJG), joins the program to discuss earnings, the insurance industry, and outlook in 2023. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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The Fed, Banks, and Credit Suisse

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 21, 2023 39:33

Ira Jersey, Chief US interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses the Fed and interest rate hike. Anna Wong, Chief US Economist with Bloomberg Economics, joins the program to discuss her Fed rate hike prediction and outlook for the US economy amid tightening and bank uncertainty. Jeroen Julius, Senior Credit Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins the program to discuss AT1 bonds and risks for the future post-Credit Suisse collapse. Sonali Basak, Wall Street Reporter with Bloomberg News, gives us the latest on Credit Suisse and UBS. Liz McCormick, Chief Correspondent – Global Macro Markets with Bloomberg News, discusses recent activity in the bond market and what it portends for a recession. Angela Seidler, VP of Investor Relations at Aurubis, joins in studio to discuss copper and commodities outlook in the US and in Europe amid banking turmoil and uncertainty.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Congress Won't Let The US Default on Its Debt. Right?

The Big Take

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 16, 2023 26:10 Transcription Available

The White House and Congress are battling over raising the nation's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. If they don't act and the US defaults on its debt this summer, the economic shockwaves will be felt across the nation and around the world. Even so, the conventional wisdom in many parts of Washington and Wall Street seems to be: don't worry, in the end of course they'll reach a deal. But relying on conventional wisdom is often…unreliable. Though congressional leaders managed to overcome their differences and raise the debt ceiling in the past–often at the 11th hour, after all the brinkmanship had played out–what if this time is different? Bloomberg journalists Liz McCormick and Erik Wasson join this episode to game out the scenarios and gauge how concerned we should be about the possibility that the rancor and acrimony in Washington will lead to a debt default for the first time in US history. Read more: https://bloom.bg/3JkoEqX Listen to The Big Take podcast every weekday and subscribe to our daily newsletter: https://bloom.bg/3F3EJAK Have questions or comments for Wes and the team? Reach us at bigtake@bloomberg.net.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Bonds, Inflation, and the Equity Rally (Podcast)

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 6, 2023 40:11

Liz McCormick, Chief Correspondent of Global Macro Markets with Bloomberg News, joins the program to discuss the Federal Reserves and what the bond market is currently telling investors. Priya Misra, Managing Director and Global Head of Rates Strategy at TD Securities, joins the show to discuss the Fed and rate hikes. Andrew Marok, VP of Equity Research at Raymond James, joins us to talk about Activision earnings, Microsoft's acquisition, and gaming outlook. Jay Hatfield, CEO at Infrastructure Capital Management, joins the show to talk about sectors and stocks he sees performing well with inflation still running hot and his outlook for energy and equities. Wes Kosova, host of The Big Take podcast for Bloomberg, joins us to talk about this week's lineup. Hosted by Matt Miller and Kriti Gupta.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Twitter, Oil, and Equities (Podcast)

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 19, 2022 43:09

Mandeep Singh, Senior Tech Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, and Dan Ives, Senior Equity Analyst at WedBush Securities, join the program to talk Twitter and Tesla. John Cotterell, CEO at Endava (NYSE: DAVA), joins the program to discuss his company's performance amid varying economic headwinds, the difficulties tech has faced, and outlook for his company. Fernando Valle, Senior Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses oil and the global energy market as China sharply reopens and President Biden restores the oil reserves. Gina Martin Adams, Chief Equity Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, and Cam Crise, Macro Strategist with Bloomberg News, joins us for a markets roundtable on how equities will close 2022 and outlook for 2023. Liz McCormick, Chief Correspondent with Bloomberg, joins the show to talk about the bond market and corporate debt. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Kriti Gupta.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Jay Powell, Tech, Credit, and Markets (Podcast)

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 3, 2022 38:05

Neil Grossman, former CIO at TKNG Capital, joins the show for a roundtable discussion with Danielle DiMartino Booth of Quill Intelligence about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and the potential dangers rate hikes pose to the economy. Brent Schutte, Chief Investment Strategist at Northwestern Mutual, joins the show to talk about sectors he likes amid uncertain economic conditions ahead. Ed Ludlow, reporter with Bloomberg News, discuss Twitter development and all things tech. Liz McCormick, Chief Global Macro Markets correspondent with Bloomberg News, joins the show to discuss her piece on bonds tumbling and the dollar surging. Damian Sassower, Chief Emerging Markets Strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins the show to discuss the strong dollar and how the Fed's moves are affecting emerging markets, as well as China's lockdowns. Hosted by Paul Sweeney, Kriti Gupta, and Nathan Hager.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Growing The Tourism Workforce And Our Song Of The Week, This West Virginia Morning

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 21, 2022

On this West Virginia Morning, the last two weeks, we've looked at various aspects of the tourism industry in our state, and there are a lot of jobs in the hospitality industry. But where do people learn to do the work? Liz McCormick spoke with Tami Maynard, who works with West Virginia HEAT — a program that is dedicated to training the next generation of hospitality workers in West Virginia. The post Growing The Tourism Workforce And Our Song Of The Week, This West Virginia Morning appeared first on West Virginia Public Broadcasting.

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Growing The Tourism Workforce And Our Song Of The Week, This West Virginia Morning

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 21, 2022 15:29

On this West Virginia Morning, the last two weeks, we've looked at various aspects of the tourism industry in our state, and there are a lot of jobs in the hospitality industry. But where do people learn to do the work? Liz McCormick spoke with Tami Maynard, who works with West Virginia HEAT — a program that is dedicated to training the next generation of hospitality workers in West Virginia.

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A Funeral Singer Talks, And Barbara Kingsolver Writes, About Appalachia

Inside Appalachia

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 20, 2022 53:22

This week, we travel to Charleston, West Virginia, to learn about the importance of funeral singers to Black communities. We'll also hear about a new tool whose maker believes he can help save thousands of lives from fatal opioid overdoses. And we talk with author Barbara Kingsolver about the influence of Appalachia in her books. You'll hear these stories and more this week, Inside Appalachia. The Funeral Singer For many Black communities throughout the country, music is an essential component of end-of-life rituals. When a loved one dies, families often call upon a skilled singer to perform at a funeral as a way to offer comfort and healing. Lyme Disease Lurks With Ticks Fall colors are really beginning to pop where I live, along the Blue Ridge Parkway. For a lot of people, this is the peak season to get outdoors. But while the end of summer comes with a drop in biting flies and mosquitos, we're not out of the woods yet. Folks venturing out into the forest are still at risk for tick bites and lyme disease. And y'all, here in central and northern Appalachia, we're in prime Lyme disease country. West Virginia Public Broadcasting's Chris Schulz sat down with former West Virginia state health officer Dr. Ayne Amjad to discuss safety and prevention. The Great Eastern Trail In 1948, a hiker named Earl Shaffer came up with the idea of an alternative to the Appalachian Trail – the hiking only trail that passes through 14 states and spans nearly 2200 miles. Named the Great Eastern Trail, this other route stretches from the deep south to New England, just west of the Appalachian Trail, but it wasn't until 2007 that the Great Eastern Trail Association was created and parts of the trail began to open up to hikers. As Jessica Lilly reports, when hikers get to southern West Virginia, they find a trail that is incomplete. A Box To Help Stop Overdoses Opioid addiction costs thousands of lives each year. Health officials and advocates are thinking creatively to find ways to stem the loss – but not everyone is thinking outside of the box to find solutions. Some people are thinking very much inside the box. Producer Bill Lynch has this story. Barbara Kingsolver and Appalachia Barbara Kingsolver is one of Appalachia's most acclaimed authors. Her novel “The Poisonwood Bible” held down a spot on the New York Times bestseller list for more than a year. It's been in development at HBO since 2019. Kingsolver's fiction takes readers all over the world, but she says her Appalachian roots inspire key parts of her stories. Liz McCormick sat down with Kingsolver to learn more. Our theme music is by Matt Jackfert. Other music this week was provided by Jesse Milnes, The Company Stores, Tyler Childers and The Appalachian Road Show. Bill Lynch is our producer. Our executive producer is Eric Douglas. Kelley Libby is our editor. Our audio mixer is Patrick Stephens. Zander Aloi also helped produce this episode. You can find us on Instagram and Twitter @InAppalachia.

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Holiday Shopping to Start Earlier Than Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 10, 2022 30:23

Patrick Brown, VP of Growth Marketing and Insights at Adobe, discusses the retail forecast ahead of the holiday season. Angela Stent, Senior Adviser at the Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies, talks about the latest between Russia and Ukraine. Liz McCormick, Bloomberg's Chief Correspondent for Global Macro Markets, discusses her story on treasury buyers bailing out. And we Drive to the Close with CIO of ACM Funds, Jordan Kahn. Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim StenovecProducers: Sara Livezey and Ariel AgamiSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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UK Bond Selloff, Joint EU Debt, US Treasuries (Podcast)

The Cable

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 10, 2022 46:07

Host Alix Steel is joined by guest co-host, Bloomberg Opinion's Marcus Ashworth to discuss the latest in UK bonds and whether the Bank of England's attempts to stabilize the market are working. Bloomberg's Will Kennedy joins to discuss the European energy crisis, including Germany's decision to support joint issuance of EU debt. Bloomberg Washington Correspondent Joe Mathieu and Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst Woo Jin Ho join to give insight into the chips sector downturn. Plus, Bloomberg's Ros Mathieson on Ukraine and Bloomberg's Liz McCormick on US Treasuries.

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Holiday Shopping to Start Earlier Than Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 10, 2022 30:23

Patrick Brown, VP of Growth Marketing and Insights at Adobe, discusses the retail forecast ahead of the holiday season. Angela Stent, Senior Adviser at the Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies, talks about the latest between Russia and Ukraine. Liz McCormick, Bloomberg's Chief Correspondent for Global Macro Markets, discusses her story on treasury buyers bailing out. And we Drive to the Close with CIO of ACM Funds, Jordan Kahn. Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim StenovecProducers: Sara Livezey and Ariel AgamiSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Author Barbara Kingsolver Talks Appalachian Roots And Dustbowl Revival Has Our Song Of The Week, This West Virginia Morning

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 7, 2022 16:50

On this West Virginia Morning, we hear from award-winning author Barbara Kingsolver who is the 2022 Appalachian Heritage Writer-in-Residence at Shepherd University. Liz McCormick talks with Kingsolver about her Appalachian roots and how they inspire key themes and ideas in her stories.

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Author Barbara Kingsolver Talks Appalachian Roots And Dustbowl Revival Has Our Song Of The Week, This West Virginia Morning

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 7, 2022

On this West Virginia Morning, we hear from award-winning author Barbara Kingsolver who is the 2022 Appalachian Heritage Writer-in-Residence at Shepherd University. Liz McCormick talks with Kingsolver about her Appalachian roots and how they inspire key themes and ideas in her stories. The post Author Barbara Kingsolver Talks Appalachian Roots And Dustbowl Revival Has Our Song Of The Week, This West Virginia Morning appeared first on West Virginia Public Broadcasting.

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Markets, Labor, And Bonds (Podcast)

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 1, 2022 29:52

Anneka Treon, Managing Director – Head of Competence Center at Van Lanschot Kempen, joins the show to discuss interest rates, the Fed, and markets. Jonathan Hirtle, Executive Chairman at Hirtle Callghan & Co., talks about markets, investing, and the economy in 2022. Christopher McCann, CEO at 1-800-FLOWERS, joins the show to talk about how his business is faring amid inflation, the global fertilizer crunch, rising costs, labor, and outlook for the rest of the year into 2023. Tim Fiore, the Chairman of the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Business Survey, talks about the latest ISM findings. Liz McCormick, Chief Correspondent: Global Macro Markets with Bloomberg News, joins the show to discuss the crucial month for company bond sales and the dot plot rate. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Preparing For A New School Year And Flood Cleanup In Kentucky On This West Virginia Morning

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 4, 2022 15:19

On this West Virginia Morning, state officials have been working through the summer to ensure schools are safe in the event of a threat – such as a school shooting. Education reporter Liz McCormick talks with the West Virginia Department of Education's Jonah Adkins, a coordinator in the office of accountability.

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Markets, Tech, And Air Travel (Radio)

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 19, 2022 33:07

Steve Wyett, Chief Investment Strategist at BOK Financial, talks about markets and investing in 2022. Ivana Delevska, founder and CIO at SPEAR Invest, talks about tech stocks, including those reporting earnings this week like IBM and Netflix, and industrial tech investing. Liz McCormick, Chief Correspondent of Global Macro Markets for Bloomberg News, talks about yield curve inversions, the bond market, and Euro bonds reacting to the ECB likely raising interest rates. Ted Smith co-founder and president of Union Square Advisors, talks about tech volatility, M&A deals in tech, and trends in deal making. Max Levchin, CEO at Affirm, joins the show to discuss his company and consumer sentiment. Hosted by Paul Sweeney, Matt Miller, Kriti Gupta, and Sonali Basak. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Bonds, Markets, And ETFs (Podcast)

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 27, 2022 29:50

Liz McCormick, Chief Correspondent: Global Macro Markets for Bloomberg News, discusses the MLIV pulse survey on how much more the Fed will tighten and the predicament facing bond traders. Dr. Brian Jacobsen, Senior Investment Strategist with Allspring Global Investments, discusses investment strategies in 2022. Matt Winkler, Editor-in-Chief emeritus at Bloomberg News, discusses his recent Opinion piece on Atlanta's strong economy. Andrew Chanin, CEO of ProcureAM, discusses his company's FEMA ETF and why it's well-timed as hurricane season approaches. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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ETFs, Markets, And Broadcom (Podcast)

Play Episode Listen Later May 23, 2022 26:00

Sylvia Jablonski, Chief Investment Officer, Co-Founder at Defiance ETFs, discusses ETFs, inflation, investment strategies, and outlook for a recession in the US. Randy Schwimmer, Co-head of Senior Lending at Churchill Asset Management, talks about markets, inflation, and the economy amid global uncertainty. Liz McCormick, Chief Correspondent: Global Macro Markets for Bloomberg News, discusses volatile markets and the S&P touching bear territory Friday. Woo Jin Ho, Senior Hardware Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, joins the show to discuss the Broadcom-VMware potential deal. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Kriti Gupta. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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From Pittsburgh To Georgia To Shenandoah, We Asked ‘What Is Appalachia?' Here's What You Said

Inside Appalachia

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 7, 2022 53:49

What is Appalachia? This week, we're re-airing a December 2021 episode that seeks to answer this question, with stories from Mississippi to Pittsburgh. Appalachia connects mountainous parts of the South, the Midwest, the Rust Belt, even the Northeast. Politically, it encompasses 423 counties across 13 states — West Virginia is the only state entirely inside Appalachia. That leaves so much room for geographic and cultural variation. This week, we ask people from five Appalachian states if they feel like they're in Appalachia. Mississippi Bob Owens, locally known as 'Pop Owens', standing in front of his watermelon stand outside New Houlka, Miss. Pop said he was aware that Mississippi is part of Appalachia, but that no one in the state would consider themselves Appalachian. Caitlin Tan/WVPB Bob Owens is a watermelon farmer outside New Houlka, in the northeastern part of Mississippi. Owens said he was aware that Mississippi is part of Appalachia, but that no one in the state would consider themselves Appalachian. Shenandoah Valley In the 1960s, while some localities were clamoring to get into Appalachia, on the eastern edge of the region some lawmakers fought to keep their counties outside the boundaries, including politicians in Roanoke, Virginia and the Shenandoah Valley. Appalachian Studies associate professor Emily Satterwhite said explaining to her students why some counties in Virginia are included in Appalachia, but others aren't is confusing. Pittsburgh Appalachia's largest city is Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. When we asked people from that city to tell us if they consider it a part of Appalachia, about half said no. “I definitely do not feel that I am Appalachian culturally,” said Mark Jovanovich, who grew up just outside Pittsburgh's city limits in the Woodland Hills area. “Personally, I would consider the city of Pittsburgh is sort of like a mini New York City. I guess we'd probably be lumped in as like a Rust Belt city, which makes enough sense, but definitely not Appalachian culturally.” Writer Brian O'Neill disagrees. He wrote a book called “The Paris of Appalachia: Pittsburgh in the Twenty-First Century.” What Do You Think? How about you? Do you call yourself an Appalachian? Why or why not? Send an email to insideappalachia@wvpublic.org or Tweet to us @InAppalachia. Our theme music is by Matt Jackfert. Other music this week was provided by Amythyst Kiah, Jake Schepps, and Jarett Pigmeat, courtesy of Appalshop and June Appal Recordings and Dinosaur Burps. Roxy Todd is our producer. Our executive producer is Eric Douglas. Kelley Libby is our editor. Alex Runyon is our associate producer. Our audio mixer is Patrick Stephens. Zander Aloi also helped produce this episode. Jess Mador, Shepherd Snyder and Liz McCormick contributed to this episode.

Building Cultural Bridges Through 'Mexilachian Music,' A Black Recreation Area Sees New Life, And Writer Marie Manilla On Being 'Urban Appalachian'

Inside Appalachia

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 12, 2021 51:41

This week on Inside Appalachia, we'll hear what happens when a family with roots in Mexico and in Appalachia combines its cultural identities through music. And we have a story about a park in southwestern Virginia that was created during the Jim Crow-era as one of the only recreation areas in central Appalachia for Black residents. Green Pastures eventually fell into disrepair, but now it's seeing a makeover as one of Virginia's newest state parks. We'll also hear how investigative reporters in Pittsburgh brought to light safety concerns in low-income housing. Writer Marie Manilla tells us why she identifies as an "urban Appalachian" and why she feels drawn to push against stereotypes of her region and her people. A Special Place In the 1930s, the Civilian Conservation Corps and other New Deal programs created parks across America. But many of these places were closed off to Black people, especially in the Jim Crow South. In Clifton Forge, Virginia, the local branch of the NAACP pushed for the creation of a recreation area for Black people. So the state of Virginia partnered with the U.S. Forest Service — and in 1937, they opened Green Pastures. It became a destination for generations of Black people across Central Appalachia. Now there's an effort to gather the stories of people who grew up swimming and playing at Green Pastures. Mexilachia The Lua Project calls their music "Mexilachian” - a blend of Appalachian old time and Mexican folk songs. But members of the band say their music also draws on Jewish and Eastern European traditions. Their sound is a musical manifestation of what it means to connect with a mixed cultural identity - a journey which isn't always easy. Folkways reporter Clara Haizlett caught up with a couple members of the band at their home in Charlottesville, Virginia. Eviction Last year, the Centers For Disease Control issued an eviction moratorium to keep the COVID-19 virus from spreading. In parts of central Appalachia, the moratorium was one of the few things keeping some families afloat. But now there's no longer a federal policy in place to prevent evictions. The Supreme Court ruled against the Biden administration's eviction moratorium on August 26, which ended protections that were supposed to extend into early October. As Katie Myers reports, the end of these eviction protections is creating new health risks. Unsafe Living An increase in evictions isn't the only issue facing renters. Reporters Kate Giammarise and Rich Lord have been looking into various issues with the rental market in Pittsburgh. They've heard about tenant organizing, and unsafe living conditions in low-income housing. Rich and Kate have been reporting a year-long series of stories for W-E-S-A and Public Source. Our producer Roxy Todd spoke with them about why this reporting matters, and why it's not just an issue that people in Pittsburgh should care about. Urban Appalachia For a lot of writers, and publishers, Appalachia means stories about the rural experience-- like coal mining or farming. But that's not true for everyone. Author Marie Manilla grew up in Huntington, West Virginia, a city along the Ohio River. Manilla spoke with reporter Liz McCormick about how she uses her work to push change in West Virginia and around the world.

Critical Components Of Virtual Learning On This West Virginia Morning

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 28, 2021 15:54

On this West Virginia Morning, education reporter Liz McCormick spoke with Chris Harrington, director of Michigan Virtual Learning Research Institute at Michigan Virtual School, to get some perspective on ways to have successful virtual learning – and the importance of reliable internet access.

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CD201: WTF is the Federal Reserve?

Congressional Dish

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 23, 2019 113:43

The Federal Reserve system: Most Americans know it's important but most Americans don't know exactly what it is. In this episode, discover the controversial and disturbing history of the Federal Reserve and learn how it has allowed bankers and politicians to create money out of nothing, taking value out of your bank accounts for over 100 years. Please Support Congressional Dish – Quick Links Click here to contribute monthly or a lump sum via PayPal Click here to support Congressional Dish for each episode via Patreon Send Zelle payments to: Donation@congressionaldish.com Send Venmo payments to: @Jennifer-Briney Send Cash App payments to: $CongressionalDish or Donation@congressionaldish.com Use your bank's online bill pay function to mail contributions to: 5753 Hwy 85 North, Number 4576, Crestview, FL 32536 Please make checks payable to Congressional Dish Thank you for supporting truly independent media! Recommended Congressional Dish Episodes CD191: The Democracies of Elliott Abrams CD174: The Bank Lobbyist Act CD167: Combatting Russia (NDAA 2018) CD102: The World Trade Organization CD Team Members Only (Patreon): Inside CSPAN Books The Creature from Jekyll Island by G. Edward Griffin September 2010 Fed Up: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America Booth by Danielle DiMartino February 2017 Collusion: How Central Bankers Rigged the World by Nomi Prins 2018 Chain of Title: How Three Ordinary Americans Uncovered Wall Street's Great Foreclosure Fraud by David Dayen May 2016 Articles/Documents Article: The Fed May Have Just Extended The Bull Market by Nancy Tengler, USA Today, September 19, 2019. Article: The Fed Is Trapped in the Twilight Zone by Mark Gongloff, Bloomberg Opinion, September 19, 2019. Article: Fed Cuts Interest Rates To Prop Up The slowing Economy by Scott Horsley, NPR, September 18, 2019. Article: Powell Stresses Solid U.S. Outlook After Fed Cuts Rates Again by By Craig Torres and Rich Miller, Bloomberg, September 18, 2019. Article: Fed’s First-in-a-Decade Intervention Will Be Repeated Wednesday by Liz McCormick and Alex Harris, Bloomberg, September 17, 2019. Article: 5 facts about the national debt by Drew Disilver, Pew Reserach Center, July 24, 2019. Article: Does Trump Have the Legal Authority to Demote the Federal Reserve Chairman? by Charlie Savage, The Washington Post, June 20, 2019. Article: Taxing Empty Apartments Could Ease the Housing Crisis by Adele Peters, Fast Company, February 12, 2019. Article: Elizabeth Warren Was Right, New Law is Already Making Banks Bigger The Intercept, by David Dayen, February 8, 2019. Article: Oakland's vacant-property tax takes effect, sparking hope - and alarm by Kathleen Pender, San Francisco Chronicle, January 26, 2019. Article: Steve Mnuchin Is a Dunce by Rebecca Burns and David Dayen, The Intercept, January 1, 2019. Article: Does Trump get one thing right about the Fed? by Andrew Van Dam, Washington Post, November 29, 2018. Info booklet: I Bet You Thought By David H. Friedman, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, December 27, 2018 Press Release: Federal Reserve Board invites public comment on framework that would more closely match regulations for large banking organizations with their risk profiles, Board of Governors at the Federal Reserve Board, October 31, 2018. Article: Vacancy: America's Other Housing Crisis by Richard Florida, CityLab, July 27, 2018. Article: The Richest 10% of Americans Now Own 84% of All Stocks by Rob Wile, CNN Money, December 19, 2017. Article: Who Is Jerome Powell: Trump’s Pick for Fed Chairman by Binyamin Appelbaum and Kevin Granville, New York Times, Nov. 2, 2017. Article: Donald Trump Expected to Pick Shadow Banker for Key Position at the Fed by David Dayen, The Intercept, April 19, 2017. Article: The End Is in Sight for the U.S. Foreclosure Crisis by William R. Emmons, St. Louis Federal Reserve, December 2, 2016 Article: Food Price Inflation Since 1913 by Tim McMahon, InflationData.com, March 21, 2013. Article: Hedge Funds Draw Concerns, Reuters and Bloomberg News, July 26, 2006. Article: Banker Joins Dillon, Read, New York Times, February 17, 1995. Article: With NAFTA, US Finally Creates a New World Order by Henry Kissinger, Los Angeles Times, July 18, 1993. Article: The Owens Bill as a Measure of Inflation, New York Times, December 13, 1913 Article: Putting Government Into the Banking Business, New York Times, June 17, 1913 Resources Congressional Budget Office: Taxes Council on Foriegn Relations: Membership Council on Foreign Relations: Membership roster Council on Foreign Relations: Corporate Membership Council on Foreign Relations: Corporate Membership informational brochure Federal Reserve: Monetary Policy Federal Reserve Board of Governors: Board Members Federal Reserve FAQ: Is it legal for a business in the United States to refuse cash as a form of payment? Federal Reserve History: The Meeting at Jekyll Island Federal Reserve History: Monetary Control Act of 1980 Investopedia: Monetary Control Act of 1980 Treasury Direct: Historical Debt Outstanding - Annual 1900 - 1949 Treasury Direct: Historical Debt Outstanding - Annual 2000 - 2018 Treasury Direct: Interest Expense on the Debt Outstanding U.S. Global Investors: The Many Uses of Gold Sound Clip Sources Press Conference aired on CNBC: Powell on Trump: ‘The law is clear that I have a four-year term, and I fully intend to serve it’ June 19, 2019 Reporter: Clarify what you would do if the president tweets or calls you to say he would like to demote you as fed chair? Jerome Powell: I think the law is clear that I have a four year term and I I fully intend to serve it. Tweet: Kyle Dunnigan, #LeavingNevreland March 6, 2019 Fox News Interview with President Donald Trump October 16, 2019 President Donald Trump: Give me zero interest rates right now and you take a look at our numbers. It'd be the greatest economy in the history of the world. Nobody would be able to compete with it. President Donald Trump: And I fully get the whole thing, the Federal Reserve, I get it as well as any president who's ever been here. I get it really well. Joe Biden Speaks that Council on Foreign Relations January 23, 2018 Joe Biden: I’ll give you one concrete example. I was—not I, it just happened to be that was the assignment I got. I got all the good ones. And so I got Ukraine. And I remember going over, convincing our team and our leaders, convincing them that we should be providing for loan guarantees. And I went over, I guess, the 12th, 13th time to Kiev. I was supposed to announce that there was another billion-dollar loan guarantee. And I had gotten a commitment from Poroshenko and from Yatsenyuk that they would take action against the state prosecutor, and they didn’t. So they said they were walking out to a press conference. I said, nah, I’m not going to—or, we’re not going to give you the billion dollars. They said, you have no authority. You’re not the president. The president said—I said, call him. (Laughter.) I said, I’m telling you, you’re not getting the billion dollars. I said, you’re not getting the billion. I’m going to be leaving here in, I think it was about six hours. I looked at them and said: I’m leaving in six hours. If the prosecutor is not fired, you’re not getting the money. Well, son of a bitch. (Laughter) He got fired. And they put in place someone who was solid at the time. Hillary Clinton Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations November 2015 Watch on C-SPAN Hillary Clinton: So we need to move simultaneously toward a political solution to the civil war that paves the way for a new government with new leadership and to encourage more Syrians to take on ISIS as well. To support them, we should immediately deploy the Special Operations Force President Obama has already authorized, and be prepared to deploy more, as more Syrians get into the fight. We should retool and ramp up our efforts to support and equip viable Syrian opposition units. Our increased support should go hand in hand with increased support from our Arab and European partners, including Special Forces who can contribute to the fight on the ground. We should also work with the coalition and the neighbors to impose no-fly zones that will stop Assad from slaughtering civilians and the opposition from the air. Opposition Forces on the ground, with material support from the coalition, could then help create safe areas for them from the country instead of fleeing toward Europe. Ron Paul speech at the Campaign for Liberty: End the Fed September 18, 2009 Ron Paul: But, there's a moral argument, against the, the Federal Reserve because, we're giving power to a few individuals to create money out of thin air and have, have legal tender laws that says, you must use the paper money. You can't use gold as the constitution tells you you should, but you must use, paper money. And then that gives the central bank the Authority to counterfeit money, and always for good reasons, of course, to maintain a stable economy. Ron Paul: The mandate and the Federal Reserve Act for the Federal Reserve was to maintain the value of the dollar and to have full employment, and maintaining the value of the dollar means stable prices. Well, they fail. They flown, they get an AF. They're destroying the value of the dollar. And we have perpetual increases in cost of living and they say, oh no, it's not all bad inflation. We're only destroying the money at 2% per year. But it's a lot worse than that. But 2% it's evil too. You know, under sun money, your value of your money goes up, costs go down, cost of living goes down and you get more. And that's how we become more prosperous. But they have totally failed in maintaining the value of the dollar, giving us stable prices. Nobody wants to talk about the inflation in Eh, in a medical care. Yes, pricing. People are unhappy because they can't afford it or they can't afford it because their dollar doesn't buy as much. You say, oh no, we don't have inflation. The government says the CPIS only going up 1% - 2%. But the cost of medicine goes up much more rampantly. But, when you create new money, the cost goes up differently for different areas. If everybody's wages went up at the same rate as the money supply would go up, and everybody's cost would go up the same, it would be irrelevant. But it doesn't work that way. Your wages and your income never keep up and certain prices go up faster than others. Some people suffer more than people who get to use the money. First benefit. The people who get the money, use the money last, the average person in the middle class, they use the money and they get stuck. If you're in retirement, you might suffer more than others. But you know, they come up with these figures and they say, oh, prices went up 2% last month. But if you exclude for food and energy, they only went up a half a percent. So it wasn't so bad. But for some people, food and energy crisis go up and it means a whole lot. Ron Paul: And there was a time, you know, the Federal Reserve was required to have gold behind the expansion of money. So they were restrained and as bad as they were in inviting problems, they still had some restraint up until 1971. But even though the Federal Reserve Act gave the power to the Fed to buy corporate debt, they really never did that until just recently. It used to be gold and silver that they used as reserve. And then after 1971, they just used treasury bills, which was bad, but still there was some restraint on that, that depended on the amount of debt that we had. But of course, that gave license to the congress to run up unlimited amount of debt. But today what backs our dollar is derivatives. All the worthless access, the toxic access assets that we were required to buy are now held by the Fed. And we don't know exactly how much and what they have bought. And that, of course, is why we're arguing for the case of auditing the Fed. Ron Paul: The other associations that I talk about in the book are the associations with the Federal Reserve Board chairman. I've had a few of those. And a matter of fact, just for a month or so, when I first went into Congress, Berns was still the chairman. I didn't really get to know him and it was such a short period and he was in poor health. But the one that I got to know the best in our years was Paul Volcker. And, I gave him a little bit of a plus as far as the various members, various chairman that I've met because, he seemed to be more willing to discuss things on a one to one basis. Actually there was one time when we were working on the monetary control act in the early 1980s, which gave a lot more power, regulatory powers, to the Federal Reserve and to monetize debt. And I was arguing one case in the committee, that it was a dangerous thing because the Federal Reserve was given too much power to inflate endlessly and didn't have to have any reserves whatsoever and could take interest rates down to zero or whatever. And, he was disagreeing with me and he says, look, what I'd like you to do is come over and have breakfast with me. And, that wouldn't happen with Bernanke or Greenspan. They didn't do that. So I did. I went over to the Federal Reserve and we had the discussion. He tried to, you know, convince me differently, but I felt like I won the argument with them because as I was leaving, he says, yes, you may be right about this, but he himself, that I may be right on the interpretation of the legislation, but he himself would not inflate. He wants this so that he has the power to restrain monetary authorities rather than to expand monetary powers. But it turns out that yes, I said, you might not want to use these powers to rapidly expand the money supply, but someday somebody else might want to do it. And of course, I make the comment, I think that some day is right here when you see what Bernanke did, you know, within a few months, doubling the monetary base. So, his authority was getting granted back at that time. Ron Paul: He wants to know what a sound currency would look like. I think you could probably go to the period of time in the 19th century when they had sound money and gold coins circulated and certificates should circulate and could circulate. It's the trust factor that would have to be there and you could still have electronic money and whatever. People could measure the value of the currency by something that should always be convertible. You should have a gold coin standard, and that is that you don't have to carry the coins around, but if the government is guaranteeing - which they are supposed to be doing - guaranteeing that any certificate would be convertible into coin, and that's better than a --- standard, that means that if you have $5,000 and you're getting worried about the government, you get to vote against the government saying, look, I want my gold coins in my pocket. And then they then would have to give you the gold coins. Ron Paul: It's a sinister tax is what it really is. Governments: There's enough of a coalition together that wants to see government grow. Whether it's for the welfare reasons here at home, or if it's for the ideas of promoting our goodness around the world. It has nothing to do with protecting oil or anything else, but we need a military presence around the world. But if you had honest money and governments couldn't counterfeit, these ideas would still float around, but they would be forced to pay for it immediately. If we could ever get this whole notion that you shouldn't even allow the government to borrow, and they would have to tax us directly and say, look, if you want to do A, B, and C, we're going to take money from you and we're going to pay for it. This would slow things up. But there's a convenience for those who want big government to have the tax be an inflation tax. That is to vote for all the welfare programs. Vote for all the warfare programs. Don't be a responsible for this, morally responsible or economically responsible. Just pass the programs. And if you find your coalitions, you get reelected. And this is work to, you know, running as Santa Claus is a lot better than running against Santa Claus. And that's been done for many, many years. But that's coming to an end. That's why there's a difference right now because this system is in the process of failing. Hearing: The Federal Budget and the Economy March 3, 2009 Senate Budget Committee Witness Ben Bernanke - Chairman of the Federal Reserve 58:00 Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT): I wrote you a letter and I said, hey, who'd you lend the money to? What were the terms of those loans? How can my constituents in Vermont get some of that money? Who makes the decisions? Do you guys sit around in a room? Do you make it? Are there conflicts of interest? So my question to you is, will you tell the American people to whom you lent $2.2 trillion of their dollars? Will you tell us who got that money and what the terms are of those agreements? Ben Bernanke: We explain each of our programs. In terms of the terms, we explained the terms exactly. We explained what the collateral requirements are. We explained… Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT): To whom did you explain that? Ben Bernanke: It's on our website. Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT): Yeah. Okay. Ben Bernanke: So all that information is available in our commercial paper... Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT): And who got the money? Ben Bernanke: Hundreds and hundreds of banks. Any bank or that has access to the U.S. Federal Reserve's discount... Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT): Can you tell us who they are? Ben Bernanke: No, because the reason that is counterproductive and will destroy the value of the program is that banks will not come to the… Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT): Isn't that too bad? Ben Bernanke: Sorry. Sen. Bernie Sanders (VT): In other words, isn't that too bad? They took the money, but they don't want to be public about the fact that they received it. Cover Art Design by Only Child Imaginations ______________________________________________________ Music Presented in This Episode Intro & Exit: Tired of Being Lied To by David Ippolito (found on Music Alley by mevio)

united states american new york world europe americans new york times european ukraine board north vote congress authority economy washington post council campaign inflation npr usa today santa claus vermont laughter sight measure bloomberg donations fed chain af kyiv federal reserve arab fast company syrian los angeles times reuters twilight zone governors new world order friedman assad special forces henry kissinger housing crisis san francisco chronicle federal reserve bank intercept new law ron paul syrians bloomberg news cnn money hwy emmons greenspan federal reserve board jekyll island berns william r bloomberg opinion dunce bernanke paul volcker citylab alex harris fed chairman richard florida david dayen cpis congressional dish federal reserve chairman crestview nomi prins poroshenko music alley federal reserve act rich miller tim mcmahon charlie savage foreclosure crisis scott horsley rebecca burns collusion how central bankers rigged liz mccormick cover art design david ippolito yatsenyuk fed up an insider's take

Markets Rebound, M&A Outlook, Section 230

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 7, 2019 36:15

Liz McCormick, Bloomberg News U.S. rates reporter, on bonds and U.S stocks. James Hardiman, Analyst at Wedbush Securities, on online travel earnings. John Reiss, Head of Global M&A at White and Case, on M&A outlook for second half of 2019. Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Joel Weber and Businessweek Writer Felix Gillette, will discuss story on Section 230's influence on the Internet and how it's currently under attack. We Drive to the Close with Mike Morey, CIO at Integrity Viking Funds. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

head internet markets outlook analysts cio rebound section 230 wedbush securities global m liz mccormick

Markets Rebound, M&A Outlook, Section 230

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 7, 2019 36:15

Liz McCormick, Bloomberg News U.S. rates reporter, on bonds and U.S stocks. James Hardiman, Analyst at Wedbush Securities, on online travel earnings. John Reiss, Head of Global M&A at White and Case, on M&A outlook for second half of 2019. Bloomberg Businessweek Editor Joel Weber and Businessweek Writer Felix Gillette, will discuss story on Section 230’s influence on the Internet and how it’s currently under attack. We Drive to the Close with Mike Morey, CIO at Integrity Viking Funds.

head internet markets outlook analysts cio rebound section 230 wedbush securities global m liz mccormick

Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - July 27th, 2019

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 27, 2019 63:25

Hosted by Carol Massar and Jason Kelly. Featuring highlights from the latest issue of Bloomberg Businessweek. -Josh Green details Elizabeth Warren's radical plan to beat Trump at his own game -Liz McCormick on how a decade of low rates and bond yields is changing everything -Rebecca Greenfield explains why it's getting harder to fire people for using marijuana -John Hechinger describes how shark fever is sweeping Cape Cod Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

donald trump elizabeth warren bloomberg businessweek josh green jason kelly rebecca greenfield carol massar liz mccormick john hechinger

Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - July 27th, 2019