Economist and chief economist of the IMF
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6 episodes with Gita Gopinath
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5 episodes with Gita Gopinath
2 episodes with Gita Gopinath
2 episodes with Gita Gopinath
3 episodes with Gita Gopinath
2 episodes with Gita Gopinath
En el tercer día del Foro Económico Mundial en Davos, Gita Gopinath del FMI advirtió sobre la baja productividad global y la necesidad de reformas ante una deuda histórica. El impacto de los aranceles, impulsados por EE. UU., preocupa a expertos, quienes prevén mayor fragmentación comercial y alzas en los costos para los consumidores.
How will inflation, conflict and technological change shape economies in the year ahead? The International Monetary Fund's First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath sat down with Meet The Leader at the World Economic Forum‘s Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland to share what's next for global growth. She identified the statistics that she found most compelling and the risks and opportunities leaders must prioritize in 2025. She also described the pivot countries will need to make in fiscal policy to tackle historic levels of global public debt (levels that could hit the $100 trillion mark) and how "optimism bias" could stand in the way. This special episode of interview of Meet The Leader was recorded at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland. About the research cited: IMF World Economic Outlook: Find a transcript here:
IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath says that she expects inflation to go down. She also added that the US election will matter for the whole world. Gopinath spoke to Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowicz. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Julia is joined by Gustavo Valdes from Mexico City. Jury selection in Hunter Biden's trial on felony gun charges gets underway. Japan is determined to keep hunting whales with its new "mothership." And, The IMF's Gita Gopinath joins the show to talk about the future of AI and its risks. All that and more with Julia Chatterley Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
The International Monetary Fund now expects China's economy to grow 5% this year, raising its forecast from 4.6% a few weeks ago to reflect a strong expansion at the start of 2024 and additional support from the government.“We certainly are seeing that consumption is recovering but it has some ways to go,” the Fund's First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said in an interview with Bloomberg's Haslinda Amin. “The strength we're seeing in public investment remains. Private investment is still weak, mainly because of the weakness in the property sector.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
La primera subdirectora gerente del Fondo Monetario Internacional [FMI], Gita Gopinath, declaró que desde inicios de 2022, China y sus socios han reducido el uso del dólar en las transacciones comerciales. Asimismo, detalló que la cuota de EEUU en las exportaciones del gigante asiático ha caído alrededor del 4%.
The International Monetary Fund's No. 2 official said further escalation of conflict in the Middle East could provoke a spike in global oil prices. IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath spoke with Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowicz on the sidelines of the IMF Spring Meetings in DC See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
As the world celebrates International Womens Day, we take a look at where we are on the march towards gender equality. How big is the gender gap and what would happen if we closed it? What are some stumbling blocks along this journey? And how can international organizations like the World Bank Group and IMF help achieve more progress? Find out the answers to these questions and more as we speak with Victoire Tomegah Dogbé, Prime Minister of Togo; Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund; Tea Trumbic, World Bank Manager for the Women, Business and the Law project and Maryse Mbonyumutwa - CEO of Pink Mango and Founder of Asantii as they answer these questions and more on this month's limited series episode of The Development Podcast.Tell us what you think of our podcast here >>>. We would love to hear from you! Featured VoicesGita Gopinath , First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund Tea Trumbic, World Bank Manager for the Women, Business and the Law project Victoire Tomegah Dogbé, Prime Minister of Togo Maryse Mbonyumutwa, CEO of Pink Mango and Founder of Asantii Timestamps[00:00] Welcome and introduction of the topic[04:35] Making progress on equal opportunity legislation: The case of Togo[06:10] Visions from Rwanda: Women's empowerment and entrepreneurship[10:12] Main insights from the World Bank's Women, Business and the Law report[16:24] IMF: How international institutions are supporting women's rights and inclusionABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT PODCASTThis international development podcast brings together the data, research—and solutions—that can pave the way to a sustainable future. Through conversations focused on revealing the latest data, the best research, and cutting-edge solutions, let us introduce you to the folks working to make the world a better place. Listen and subscribe for free on your favorite platform. And rate our show! ;) Tell us what you think of our podcast here >>>. We would love to hear from you! ABOUT THE WORLD BANKThe World Bank is one of the world's largest sources of funding and knowledge for low-income countries. Its five institutions share a commitment to reducing poverty, increasing shared prosperity, and promoting sustainable development.
In Kyiv, the war against Russia's invasion plays out not only through airstrikes and drones, but also through culture. Well before his full-scale invasion, President Putin was clear in his ahistorical belief that Ukraine is a made-up country, rightfully part of greater Russia. Our first guest, Victoria Nuland, was in Kyiv during the Maidan protests in 2013-14, meeting with pro-democracy protesters as well as then-President Yanukovych. This was the first of many such visits since then. It was just last month that the current Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs was in Kyiv for talks and she joins Christiane from Washington to discuss U.S. support for Ukraine. Also on today's show: Sergey Markov, Director, Institute of Political Studies in Moscow / Former MP, United Russia; Oleksiy Goncharenko, Member of the Ukrainian Parliament; Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director, IMF Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Comenzó a medianoche el paro de trenes por 24 horas en todo el país. La número dos del Fondo Monetario Internacional, Gita Gopinath, llegará hoy a Buenos Aires. En enero el consumo masivo cayó un 3,8 %.
Economics is sometimes called the “dismal science.” But the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has a surprisingly positive outlook for the U.S. economy—even if public sentiment hasn't yet caught up. Host Ravi Agrawal discusses the state of the global economy with Gita Gopinath, the IMF's first deputy managing director. The two begin with Gopinath's latest essay in Foreign Policy about trade fragmentation and fears of a new Cold War. Suggested reading: Gita Gopinath: How Policymakers Should Handle a Fragmenting World Adam Posen: America's Zero-Sum Economics Doesn't Add Up Adam Tooze: The IMF is an anchor adrift in a changing world economy And FP is looking for a new producer of this show. If you'd like to work with us, please check out the job description: https://foreignpolicy.com/employment-opportunities/. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
While tackling inflation, higher interest rates have wider repercussions: slowing down growth, increasing pressure on global markets, creating debt sustainability risks and changing the nature of investment. Will high rates become the new normal and what might a new equilibrium look like? This is the full audio from a session at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting 2024 Speakers: Steve Sedgwick, Anchor, CNBC Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor, Central Bank of France Chuck Robbins, Chair and Chief Executive Officer, Cisco Systems, Inc. This is the full audio from a session at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting 2024 Check out all our podcasts on wef.ch/podcasts: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@wef Radio Davos - subscribe: https://pod.link/1504682164 Meet the Leader - subscribe: https://pod.link/1534915560 Agenda Dialogues - subscribe: https://pod.link/1574956552 World Economic Forum Book Club Podcast - subscribe: https://pod.link/1599305768 Join the World Economic Forum Podcast Club: https://www.facebook.com/groups/wefpodcastclub
La subdirectora gerente del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), Gita Gopinath, advirtió que la fragmentación de la economía global y los cambios en el comercio podrían desencadenar una "nueva Guerra Fría" en medio del conflicto en Ucrania y las crecientes tensiones entre EEUU y China.
Il Fondo Monetario Internazionale ha rivisto al rialzo le sue previsioni per la crescita economica della Cina nel 2023, portandola dal 5% al 5,4%. Questo miglioramento è stato influenzato dalla robusta ripresa dell'economia cinese dopo la pandemia da Covid-19. Tuttavia, l'istituto prevede un rallentamento della seconda potenza mondiale nel prossimo anno. La crescita del PIL dovrebbe frenare al 4,6% nel 2024. Questa previsione è persino più ottimistica rispetto alla precedente stima del 4,2%, annunciata nell'edizione di ottobre del World Economic Outlook, grazie a un terzo trimestre migliore del previsto e alle recenti misure annunciate dalla politica, come affermato dalla capo economista dell'FMI, Gita Gopinath.Questo show fa parte del network Spreaker Prime. Se sei interessato a fare pubblicità in questo podcast, contattaci su https://www.spreaker.com/show/4869332/advertisement
Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang, IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath and top Post reporters discuss what AI means for national security, the global economy and everyday users of technology. Conversation recorded on Thursday, October 26, 2023.
In this Episode, James Parkyn & François Doyon La Rochelle review the Market Statistics as of June 30,2023 and update their listeners on Inflation. Market Statistics – June 2023 : Market Statistics - Statistiques de marché (pwlcapital.com) Read The Script: 1) Introduction: François Doyon La Rochelle: You're listening to Capital Topics, episode #55! This is a monthly podcast about passive asset management and financial and tax planning ideas for the long-term investor. Your hosts for this podcast are James Parkyn and me François Doyon La Rochelle, both portfolio managers with PWL Capital. In this episode, we will discuss the following points: - For our first topic, we will review and comment the market statistics for the first half of the year. - And for our next topic, we will give you an update on inflation. - Please note before we move on to our topics that we will take a summer break. We will be back for our next episode on September 28th. Enjoy! 2) Mid-Year Review of Markets: François Doyon La Rochelle: I will start today with a review of the market statistics as of June 30, 2023. So, after a very difficult year in 2022 when pretty much all asset classes posted big losses, I'm sure our listeners will be relieved and happy to hear that in the first half of 2023 stocks and bonds are generating positive returns. These positive returns are across the board as all the asset classes we follow, except for one, are in positive territory. As a reminder, you can find our Market Statistics report on our Capital Topics website in the resources section or on the PWL Capital website in our team section. We will provide the link for the market stats on the podcast page. James Parkyn: Indeed François, after the historical devastation where both stocks and bonds were hammered with double-digit negative returns, investors should be quite pleased with the returns so far this year. François Doyon La Rochelle: Totally James, particularly given the fact that most market pundits were skeptical about the outlook for markets entering the year. Many of them were forecasting a recession that has not yet materialized. James Parkyn: Correct it has not materialized yet, GDP growth continues to be positive, personal consumption remains stubbornly strong and jobs are still being created at a strong pace both here in Canada and the U.S. Market Pundits are however expecting GDP growth to slow and even contract in the coming months on the back of the historic interest rate tightening cycle imposed by the central banks. As a reminder to our listeners, to tame inflation that had risen to multi decades highs last year - 8.1% here in Canada and 9.1% in the U.S., the Bank of Canada increased its overnight rate from 0.25% in March 2022 to 5% in July 2023. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve increased the Fed fund rates from 0.25% to 5.25% over the same period. François Doyon La Rochelle: I must say that this tightening cycle had the desired effect on inflation since it has come down here in Canada and the U.S. to 2.8% and 3% respectively which is close to the long-term target of 2% set by both central banks. This said, the tightening cycle caused collateral damages particularly in the U.S. regional banks as the sharp interest rate increases left some banks in delicate positions prompting the intervention of the Federal Reserve. James Parkyn: Regional banks were not the only worry for the markets in the first half of the year, there was, yet another debt ceiling political crisis in the U.S. that dominated the headlines for several weeks until an agreement to raise the debt limit was reached in June. François Doyon La Rochelle: Despite all this noise, the stock markets have had a strong first half, particularly in the U.S. and the internationally developed markets. Those equities are now in the bull market territory and have risen more than 20% from the lows reached in October 2022. We will look at the details a bit later, but the S&P500 Index in the U.S. is up, in U.S. dollars, by 27.5% since the lows, and the index for internationally developed equities, the MSCI EAFE (Which is the acronym of Europe, Asia and the Far East) is up roughly 32.8% since the lows. Here in Canada, we are not yet in a bull market since the S&P/TSX Composite is up only 12.8% from October's 2022 lows. James Parkyn: This may be surprising for some investors who are still emotionally caught up in the recency bias of last year. Capital market history teaches us that strong bull markets most often follow painful bear markets. François Doyon La Rochelle: Absolutely James and there is a good chart from Dimensional in their mid-year review that shows, based on data from the Fama/French Total US Market Index extending from July 1926 to December 2022, that historically, after a market decline of 20% or more, the average return one year later is 22.2%, the cumulative average return after 3 years is 41.1% and the cumulative average return after 5 years is 71.8%. James Parkyn: Yes, this data is very powerful as it is a stark reminder that you need to stay disciplined in bear markets by staying invested and sticking to your long-term plan. You can't afford to be out of the market when it turns positive. François Doyon La Rochelle: Despite this nice rally from last year's bottom, it must be mentioned that the main indexes have not fully recovered to where they were at their all-time highs. James Parkyn: Effectively, the S&P500, the MSCI EAFE, and the S&P/TSX Composite are still between 5% to 7% off their previous peaks as of June 30th. François Doyon La Rochelle: With this being said let's now look at the market statistics as of June 30th. Let's start with the Canadian fixed income. 2022 was a historically difficult year for bonds as it was the worst year in many decades. Canadian short-term bonds in 2022 were down 4.04% and the total bond market, which holds longer-dated maturities was down by a whopping 11.7%. Year-to-date as of June 30th, despite an increase in the interest rate of 1% by the Bank of Canada, the Canadian short-term bonds are up 1.01% and the Canadian total bond market is up 2.51%. James Parkyn: It's nice to see positive numbers in the bond market again, however, the performance you are quoting Francois is total return numbers, which includes interest income. If we look at bond prices, remember bond yields and bond prices move in opposite directions, short-term bonds on a price basis were down slightly. Longer-duration bond prices were up a bit. François Doyon La Rochelle: You are right James, bond prices are down but especially in the short end because of the impact of the latest interest rate increases from the BOC. As an indication the yield on the benchmark Government of Canada 2-year bond was 3.82% at the beginning of the year and it now sits at 4.21%, so the price went down. The yield on the Government of Canada 10-year bond was 3.30% at the start of the year and it was 3.26% on June 30th, so the price went up. James Parkyn: For those looking for the safety of GICs, there are some juicy rates available now. For example, you can get over 5.5% for a 1-year GIC and about 5.2% for a 5-year. François Doyon La Rochelle: Now let's look at equities, stock markets around the globe were up everywhere year-to-date. Canadian equities were up by 5.70% led mainly by growth stocks since the large and mid-cap growth stocks had a performance of 8.1% versus 4.0% for large and mid-cap value stocks. Small-cap stocks also delivered a positive return with a performance of 3.0% year-to-date as of June 30th. In the U.S., the total stock market is up 16.2% in USD but because the Canadian dollar gained relative to the US dollar the performance in Canadian dollars was 13.5%. Year-to-date, large and mid-cap growth stocks vastly outperformed value stocks with a performance in Canadian dollars of 26% versus only 2.7% for value stocks. Small cap returned 5.6% in Canadian dollars with small growth again outperforming value with a performance of 10.9% versus 0.1% for small value. James Parkyn: This is a complete reversal of what happened last year when large and mid-cap growth stocks were down significantly more than large and mid-cap value stocks. What is significant this year, is that a handful of mega-cap stocks are dominating the returns in the U.S. stock market. According to Morningstar, as of May 31st, 97% of the return on the Morningstar U.S. Large and Mid-Cap Index, which performs closely with the S&P500 Index, came from the 10 largest stocks in the index. This means that only 3% of the return came from all the over 700 stocks. François Doyon La Rochelle: Yes, year-to-date performance in the U.S. market is very concentrated in a few stocks and a few sectors. Just looking at the top 5 holdings of the S&P500, which includes Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, and Alphabet (Google) they have a performance year-to-date as of June 30th ranging from positive 36% for Alphabet to a whopping 189% for NVIDIA. In terms of sectors, 4 out of 7 sectors are experiencing negative returns in the first half. The sectors that are performing well are the technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary sectors. According to an RBC Global Asset Management report, since January 1st, 2020, only seven stocks in the S&P500 Index have produced more than half its cumulative return and these stocks are Meta, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA and Tesla. James Parkyn: Wow, this is impressive, but it means that if you are a stock picker and you did not hold any of these stocks in your portfolio you probably did poorly compared to the index. Remember there are thousands of stocks in the U.S. market and even more globally and research shows that most stocks, over very long periods, underperform one-month U.S. Treasury bills. This capital market history fact comes as a major surprise to most investors. François Doyon La Rochelle: That's correct and that's one of the reasons why stock pickers have trouble beating indexes and why we use broadly diversified portfolios to make sure we have the winners in our clients' accounts. Finally, looking at internationally developed equities, large and mid-cap stocks were also up year-to-date, they were up by 12.1% in local currency. In Canadian dollars, international developed equities were up 9.1% since the Canadian Dollar appreciated against the basket of currencies included in the MSCI EAFE Index. Here again, large and mid-cap growth stocks have outperformed value stocks with a performance of 11.5% in Canadian dollars compared to 6.7% for large and mid-cap value stocks. Similarly, in the U.S. and Canada, the small-cap stocks trailed large and mid-caps with a performance of 3.1%, that's also in Canadian dollars. To conclude, emerging markets lagged compared to developed markets with a year-to-date performance of 2.6%, and contrary to developed markets' value and small-cap stocks fared better than growth and large-cap stocks. So this wraps up the review of what happened in the Markets during the first half of the year. 3) Update on Inflation: Francois Doyon La Rochelle: Our Main Topic today is an Update on Inflation. We have covered Inflation a lot since the spring of 2022. James, maybe we can start with a summary of where are we at now with Inflation Rates? James Parkyn: Francois, Inflation cooled last month to its lowest pace in two years. As indicated earlier in the podcast, in the U.S., the consumer-price index or CPI climbed 3% in June from a year earlier, sharply below the recent peak of 9.1% in June 2022. The index for core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, in June also posted its smallest monthly increase in more than two years. The annual rate of inflation is now at the lowest it has been in just over two years. While the rate of inflation in the June CPI report remains above where the Fed wants it to be, the data suggests clear progress in getting price pressures down toward more acceptable levels. François Doyon La Rochelle: In Canada, the news was even better. The latest Inflation number came in at 2.8% in June. What about Europe and the UK James? James Parkyn: In Europe, inflation has eased to 5.5% in the 20 countries using the euro and to 7.9% in the U.K., but that's still far above the Central Banks' 2% target. François Doyon La Rochelle: Does there appear to be a consensus among economists? Can Central Banks declare victory over Inflation? James Parkyn: Nick Timaros in the WSJ reported in a recent article that: “Some Fed policymakers and economists are concerned that the easing in inflation will be temporary. They see inflation's slowdown as long overdue after the fading of pandemic-related shocks that pushed up rents and the prices of transportation and cars. And they worry underlying price pressures could persist, requiring the Fed to lift rates higher and hold them there for longer.” So their biggest fear François is about whether wages and price growth can slow enough without an economic downturn. François Doyon La Rochelle: Karen Dynan, an economist at Harvard University is quoted in that article. She states, “While things seem to be heading in the right direction with inflation, we are only at the start of a long process”. So, James, what are economists on the other side of the debate saying? James Parkyn: Nick Timaros goes on to state: “Other economists say that thinking ignores signs of current economic slowing that will gradually subdue price pressures. They also argue inflation will slow enough to push “real” or inflation-adjusted interest rates higher in the coming months. That would provide additional monetary restraint even if this week's rate increase is the last of the current tightening cycle”. François Doyon La Rochelle: So, the debate is really around wage inflation. The first camp of economists is nervous that there is too little slack and too much demand in the economy. They are not confident that inflation will return to the Fed's 2% inflation target in the coming years. James Parkyn: Exactly. Many of these economists worry that wage growth is too strong. Without a recession, they see a tight labor market pushing up core inflation next year. Since an overheated labor market is likely to show up first in wages, many see pay gains as a good proxy of underlying inflation pressure. The thinking is that 3.5% annual wage growth would be consistent with inflation between 2% and 2.5%, assuming productivity grows around 1% to 1.5% a year. François Doyon La Rochelle: According to the U.S Labor Department's employment-cost index, wages and salaries rose 5% in the January-to-March period from a year earlier. The Fed watches this index closely because it is the most comprehensive measure of wage growth. James Parkyn: The second camp of economists believes there is ample evidence that the labor market is cooling, in turn reducing inflationary pressures. They point out that the amount of time it takes unemployed workers to find new work has been growing. Increases in hours worked by private-sector employees have slowed along with the number of unfilled jobs. Benjamin Tal, the deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets, is quoted in the Global Mail that: “He expects the economy to be bleeding vacancies as opposed to jobs. Namely, companies will not be hiring but not be firing.” François Doyon La Rochelle: The encouraging news about inflation falling is that it has created space for the Central banks to be more patient and take their time about any further rate hikes. James Parkyn: To support that point François, the Fed in the U.S. last month held its benchmark federal funds rate steady in a range between 5% and 5.25%. This was the first pause after 10 consecutive increases since March 2022, when officials raised it from near zero. As a reminder for our audience, the conventional thinking is that Interest-rate increases slow the economy through financial markets by lowering asset prices and raising the cost of borrowing. As we can see by what has happened in the financial markets and the economy, this has yet to transpire. François Doyon La Rochelle: On July 27th, the Fed increased the Fed Funds rate by 25 Basis points to a target range between 5.25% and 5.50%. This was widely expected by the markets. This matches the prior peak reached over 2006-07. You'd have to go back to 2001 to find a period when rates were higher than today. The speed and size of the hikes (over 500 basis points in 16 months) are unmatched by any Fed tightening campaign since 1980. That said, CPI inflation is getting close to the Fed's 2% target. What are Central Bankers saying about the latest inflation numbers James? James Parkyn: They are all staying on message insisting the pain will only get worse if inflation slips out of control. The governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey was quoted in the Financial Times: “Our job is to return inflation to target, and we will do what is necessary. I understand the concerns that go with that, but I'm afraid I always have to say – that it is a worse outcome if we don't get inflation back to target.” Despite the risk of recession François, I feel the central bankers are emphasizing that they expect to keep rates at their peaks for some time – likely longer than stock and bond markets expect. They also appear to me to be very synchronized. François Doyon La Rochelle: I agree James. The Bank for International Settlements (or BIS), the Switzerland-based global organization of central banks appears to agree as well. In a recent report, the BIS highlighted that since early 2021, almost 95% of the world's central banks have raised rates. Even more than during the inflationary oil price shocks of the 1970s. The BIS called it “the most synchronized and intense monetary policy tightening in decades.” James Parkyn: I think there is increasing acknowledgment that Policy mistakes were made during the Pandemic. That in turn requires that interest rates be normalized at much higher levels than the ultra-low rates in effect during the pandemic. François Doyon La Rochelle: James, what are economists saying about the impact of fiscal policy or government spending on Inflation? James Parkyn: David Parkinson writing in the Globe & Mail recently, asked the following question: “How much of Canada's nagging inflation problem can we blame on government spending?” In his article in the wake of the Bank of Canada's latest interest-rate increase, he highlights the fact Governor Tiff Macklem noted in the bank's latest economic projections, government spending growth is running at about two percent. This is on par with the estimated rate that the economy's potential output is growing. This implies that the government's contribution to the economy's supply-demand balance is neutral. In other words, it's not helping the excess demand problem that continues to fuel inflation pressures, but it's not compounding the problem, either. But he also goes on to make the case that if you compare government spending to pre-pandemic levels, fiscal policy is stimulative. François Doyon La Rochelle: Intuitively, governments could also help fight inflation by reducing deficit-funded spending to cut demand. This would lower the pressure on Central Banks to raise interest rates further. James Parkyn: To that point Francois, Gita Gopinath deputy executive director of the International Monetary Fund, in a speech at the European Central Bank's (ECB) annual conference in Sintra, Portugal, last month argued “Some side effects of fighting inflation with monetary policy could be reduced by giving fiscal policy a bigger role. Indeed, economic conditions call for fiscal tightening,” She went on to say: “Given the economic conditions we have, both because of high inflation and record high debt levels, the two would call for a tightening of fiscal policy. If you look at projected fiscal deficits for many G7 countries, they look too high for far too long.” François Doyon La Rochelle: She also warned and I quote her: “Central banks must accept the “uncomfortable truth” that they may have to tolerate a longer period of inflation above their 2 percent target to avert a financial crisis.” James, is there good news for Investors with lower Inflation? James Parkyn: Yes, I believe there is good news for Investors in rates staying higher for longer. I also think that the real news is that we are now starting to get positive Real Interest rates. Finally, many Economists are forecasting lower Central Bank rates as early as 2024 and as far out as 2025. Morningstar chief economist Preston Caldwell stated in a recent report that “Inflation is now showing broad-based signs of deceleration,” says “The Fed is still likely to hike in its July meeting, but today's CPI Inflation report supports our view that the Fed will pivot to aggressive cutting in 2024 after inflation falls.” François, we now know that the Fed effectively increased their Fed funds rate after July's meeting. François Doyon La Rochelle: For investors who have been avoiding fixed income because they're afraid of rising rates, now is the time to revisit their fixed income portfolio. Investors are getting compensated on a real basis, meaning after inflation, from their bond investments, and that hasn't been the case for quite some time. James Parkyn: The perfect example is we are now getting much better rates on GICs. Recently, the GIC rates were 5.5% for 1 year, and about 5.2% for 5 years. These rates are significantly higher than our Estimate for Expected Return on Bonds of 4.26%. Our listeners can find our latest PWL Financial Planning Assumptions paper published on our PWL Website. Despite rising bond prices generally, yields are now higher than they have been for most of the past decade. François Doyon La Rochelle: Right now, you're getting a good income out of a fixed income. Rates look attractive. On a “real” basis, rates also look attractive when compared to inflation expectations for the coming years. For example, the PWL estimate for inflation is 2.2% a year, meanwhile, an investor buying a 5-year GIC, like you mentioned James, would get 5.2% or a real yield of 3%. James Parkyn: In Conclusion Francois, the key for Investors is that even if the Fed raises rates a bit further, the end of the current cycle of increases is on the horizon unless there is a dramatic resurgence in inflation. As we have said many times, we do not preach market timing about stocks AND bonds. Specifically for bonds, don't try to time the peak in interest rates. I want to share with our listeners an interesting quote from Dimensional in their Mid-year Review report: “What investors do know is that markets will continue to quickly process information as it becomes available. A long-term plan, one focused on individual goals and built on confidence in market prices, can put investors in the best place for a good experience, whatever may be in store”. François Doyon La Rochelle: In other words, James, don't try to guess the end of the hiking cycle. As a reminder to our Listeners, our discipline is to invest with “The Investor Mindset, focused on the long term”. We don't want to be led astray by short-term noise in the financial media and recent financial market volatility. This challenge is daunting and applies to all Investors including us Professionals. We have said it often on our Podcast: “It is simple to say but not easy to do: We must always be cognizant that we can fall into a trap of trying to “Forecast the Future”. 4) Conclusion: François Doyon La Rochelle: Thank you, James Parkyn for sharing your expertise and your knowledge. James Parkyn: You are welcome, Francois. François Doyon La Rochelle: That's it for episode #55 of Capital Topics! Do not forget, if you would like to submit questions or suggestions for the show, please email us at: capitaltopics@pwlcapital.com Also, if you like our podcast, please share it when with family and friends and if you have not subscribed to it, please do. Again, thank you for tuning in and please join us for our next episode on September 28 exceptionally as we are taking a break for the summer. Enjoy your summer and see you soon!
Dans cet épisode, James Parkyn et François Doyon La Rochelle commencent le balado aujourd'hui par la revue des statistiques de marché en date du 30 juin 2023 puis update leurs auditeurs sur l'inflation. -Statistiques de marché – Juin 2023: https://www.pwlcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/2023-06_PDL-Capital_Market-StatsFRE-2.pdf 1) Introduction: François Doyon La Rochelle : Bienvenue à Sujet Capital, un Balado mensuel à propos de la gestion passive de portefeuille et de la planification financière et fiscale pour les investisseurs à long terme. Vos hôtes pour ce Balado sont James Parkyn et moi-même François Doyon La Rochelle, tous deux gestionnaires de portefeuilles avec PWL Capital. Au programme aujourd'hui pour l'épisode #55 : - Pour notre premier sujet, nous ferons la revue et commenterons les statistiques de marché pour l'année en date du 30 juin. - Et ensuite, pour notre second sujet, nous ferons une mise à jour sur l'inflation. - Veuillez aussi noter, avant que nous passions à nos sujets, que nous prendrons une pause estivale. Nous serons de retour pour notre prochain épisode le 28 septembre. Bonne écoute ! 2) Revue semestrielle des marchés : François Doyon La Rochelle : Je vais commencer notre Balado aujourd'hui par la revue des statistiques de marché en date du 30 juin 2023. Après une année 2022 très difficile, une année au cours de laquelle presque toutes les classes d'actifs ont enregistré des pertes importantes, je suis sûr que nos auditeurs vont être soulagés et heureux d'apprendre qu'au cours du premier semestre 2023, les actions et les obligations ont généré des rendements positifs. Ces rendements positifs sont généralisés puisque toutes les classes d'actifs qu'on suit, à l'exception d'une, sont en territoire positif. A titre de rappel, vous pouvez trouver notre page de statistiques de marché sur notre site Internet Sujet Capital dans la section ressources ou sur le site Internet de PWL Capital dans la section dédié à notre équipe. On va partager le lien pour les statistiques de marché avec le podcast. James Parkyn : Effectivement, François, après l'année 2022 où les actions et les obligations ont été fortement malmené en même temps, les investisseurs devraient être satisfaits des rendements enregistrés depuis le début de l'année. François Doyon La Rochelle : Tout à fait James, surtout que la plupart des experts des marchés étaient sceptiques quant aux perspectives des marchés en début d'année. Plusieurs d'entre eux prévoyaient une récession qui ne s'est pas encore matérialisée. James Parkyn : En effet François, elle ne s'est pas encore matérialisée. La croissance du PIB reste positive, la consommation des ménages reste obstinément forte et la création d'emploi se poursuit à un rythme soutenu, tant ici au Canada qu'aux États-Unis. Les experts s'attendent cependant que la croissance du PIB ralentisse, qu'elle se contracte même, au cours des prochains mois, en raison du cycle de resserrement des taux d'intérêt imposé par les banques centrales. À titre de rappel, afin de ralentir l'inflation qui a atteint l'an dernier un sommet de 8,1 % au Canada et de 9,1 % aux États-Unis. La Banque du Canada a augmenté son taux directeur qui se situait à 0,25 % en mars 2022 à 5 % en juillet 2023. Aux États-Unis, on a vu des hausses semblables. La Réserve fédérale a augmenté le taux des fonds fédéraux de 0,25 % à une fourchette de 5.25% à 5,50%. François Doyon La Rochelle : Le cycle de resserrement de taux a quand même eu l'effet espéré sur l'inflation puisqu'elle a baissé ici au Canada et aux États-Unis à 2,8% et 3% respectivement, ce qui se rapproche de la cible à long terme de 2 % fixée par les deux banques centrales. Ceci dit, le cycle de resserrement a aussi fait des dommages collatéraux, en particulier dans les banques régionales américaines, car les fortes hausses des taux d'intérêt ont placé certaines banques dans des positions délicates, ce qui a entraîné l'intervention de la Réserve fédérale. James Parkyn : Les banques régionales n'ont pas été la seule source d'inquiétude pour les marchés au cours du premier semestre, il y a eu une nouvelle crise politique liée au plafond de la dette aux États-Unis qui a fait la une des journaux pendant plusieurs semaines jusqu'à ce qu'un accord sur le relèvement de la limite de la dette soit conclu en juin. François Doyon La Rochelle : Malgré tout ce bruit, les marchés boursiers ont connu un bon premier semestre, en particulier aux États-Unis et dans les marchés développés internationaux. Ces marchés sont maintenant dans un bull market (marché haussier) parce qu'ils ont augmenté de plus de 20% par rapport aux bas atteints en octobre 2022. On va examiner les détails un peu plus tard, mais l'indice S&P500 aux États-Unis a augmenté, en dollars américains, de 27,5 % depuis le bas et l'indice des actions développées internationales, le MSCI EAFE (acronyme pour les actions d'Europe, Asie et Extrême-Orient) a augmenté d'environ 32,8 % depuis le bas. Ici, au Canada, on n'est pas encore dans un marché haussier puisque l'indice S&P/TSX Composé n'a augmenté que de 12,8 % depuis le creux d'octobre 2022. James Parkyn : Ça peut surprendre certains investisseurs qui sont encore sous l'emprise émotionnelle du biais de récence de l'année dernière, mais l'histoire des marchés financiers nous enseigne que des fortes hausses de marchés arrivent très souvent à la suite de marché baissiers ou en anglais ‘Bear Market'. François Doyon La Rochelle : Absolument James et il y a un bon graphique de Dimensional dans leur revue semestrielle qui montre, sur la base des données de l'indice Fama/French du marché total américains qui couvre la période de juillet 1926 à décembre 2022, qu'historiquement, après une baisse du marché de 20%, le rendement moyen après un an est de 22,2%, que le rendement moyen cumulé après 3 ans est de 41,1% et que le rendement moyen cumulé après 5 ans est de 71,8%. James Parkyn : Oui, ces données sont très intéressantes et elles nous rappellent qu'il faut rester discipliné dans les marchés baissiers, qu'il faut rester investie et qu'on doit suivre son plan à long terme. La majorité des investisseurs ne peuvent pas se permettre de rater les hausses de marché qui suivent les ‘Bear Market'. François Doyon La Rochelle : Malgré la belle remontée depuis le creux de l'année dernière, je pense qu'il est important de mentionner que les principaux indices ne sont pas de retour à leurs niveau maximal historique. James Parkyn : Effectivement, en date du 30 juin, le S&P500, le MSCI EAFE et le S&P/TSX Composite sont encore entre 5% et 7 % en bas de leurs sommets. François Doyon La Rochelle : Ceci dit, on va maintenant regarder en détail les statistiques du marché au 30 juin en commençant par les titres à revenu fixe canadiens. Comme vous le savez, 2022 a été une année historiquement difficile pour les obligations, la pire année depuis plusieurs décennies. A titre de rappel, en 2022, les obligations canadiennes à court terme ont baissé de 4,04 % et l'ensemble du marché obligataire Canadien, qui détient des échéances plus longues, a enregistré une baisse considérable de 11,7 %. Depuis le début de l'année, au 30 juin, malgré une augmentation des taux d'intérêt de 1 % par la Banque du Canada, les obligations canadiennes à court terme ont augmenté de 1,01 % et le marché obligataire total canadien a augmenté de 2,51%. James Parkyn : Ça fait du bien d'enfin de voir des chiffres positifs dans le marché obligataire François, mais les performances que tu cites sont des chiffres de rendement total, donc ça inclut les revenus d'intérêts. Si on regarde seulement le prix des obligations, les obligations à court terme ont effectivement légèrement baissé tandis que ceux des obligations à plus long terme ont légèrement augmenté. François Doyon La Rochelle : Tu as raison James, le prix des obligations sont en baisse, surtout du côté des obligations à court terme, ceci à cause de l'impact des dernières hausses de taux d'intérêt de la Banque du Canada. À titre indicatif, le rendement des obligations du gouvernement du Canada à échéance dans deux ans était de 3,82 % au début de l'année et il est maintenant à 4,21 %, le prix de ces obligations a donc baissé. Il faut se souvenir que les rendements et les prix des obligations évoluent dans des directions opposées. Du coté des obligations à échéances plus longues, le rendement des obligations du gouvernement du Canada venant à échéance dans 10 ans était de 3,30 % au début de l'année et il se situait à 3,26 % au 30 juin, donc le prix a quelques peu augmenté. James Parkyn : Pour ceux qui recherchent la sécurité des certificats de placements garantie (CPG), on peut avoir des rendements intéressants en ce moment, allant de 5,5 % pour un CPG d'un an à 5,2 % pour un CPG de cinq ans. François Doyon La Rochelle : On va regarder maintenant du côté des actions, les marchés boursiers du monde entier ont progressé partout depuis le début de l'année. Les actions canadiennes ont augmenté de 5,70 %, principalement grâce aux titres de croissance, puisque l'indice de croissance des grandes et moyennes capitalisations a eu un rendement de 8,1 %, contre 4,0 % pour les titres de valeur des grandes et moyennes capitalisations. Les actions petite capitalisation ont également eu un rendement positif avec une performance de 3,0 % depuis le début de l'année. Aux États-Unis, le marché boursier total américain a eu une performance de 16,2 % en dollars américains, mais puisque le dollar canadien s'est apprécié par rapport au dollar américain, la performance en dollars canadiens était moindre à 13,5 %. Depuis le début de l'année, les actions de croissance de grande et moyenne capitalisation ont largement surpassé les actions de valeur, avec une performance en dollars canadiens de 26 % contre seulement 2,7 % pour les actions de valeur. Les actions de petites capitalisations ont enregistré une performance de 5,6 % en dollars canadiens, les titres de petite capitalisation croissance ont à nouveau mieux faites que les titres de valeurs avec une performance de 10,9 % contre un maigre 0,1 % pour les titres de petite capitalisation valeur. James Parkyn : Pour les titres de croissance, c'est un revirement complet par rapport à ce qui s'est passé l'année dernière, Il faut se rappeler qu'en 2022 les actions de croissance de grande et moyenne capitalisation ont fortement chuté alors que les titres de valeur de grande et moyenne capitalisation n'avaient pratiquement pas baissé. Cette année, une poignée d'actions à grande capitalisation (en anglais on dit Mega-Cap) dominent les rendements du marché boursier américain. Selon Morningstar, au 31 mai 2023, 97 % de la performance de l'indice Morningstar U.S. Large and Mid-Cap, qui suit de près l'indice S&P500, provenait des 10 plus grands titres de l'indice. Ça signifie que seulement 3 % du rendement de l'indice provient des quelque 700 autres titres de l'indice Morningstar. François Doyon La Rochelle : Oui, les performances du marché américain depuis le début de l'année sont très concentrées sur quelques actions et quelques secteurs. Si on regarde les cinq principaux titres du S&P500, à savoir Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA et Alphabet (Google), leur performance depuis le début de l'année, au 30 juin, varie de 36 % pour Alphabet à 189 % pour NVIDIA. En termes de secteurs, 4 secteurs sur 7 affichent des performances négatives au premier semestre. Les secteurs les plus performants sont ceux de la technologie, des services de communication et de la consommation discrétionnaire. Selon un rapport de RBC Global Asset Management, depuis le 1er janvier 2020, seulement sept titres de l'indice S&P500 ont produit plus de la moitié de son rendement cumulé. Ces titres sont Meta, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA et Tesla. James Parkyn : C'est très frappant, mais ça veut aussi dire que pour les gestionnaires actifs qui font de la sélection de titre pour bâtir votre portefeuille (ou stock picking en anglais) et que s'ils ne détiennent aucun de ces titres, ils ont probablement sous performer de beaucoup le S&P500. N'oubliez pas qu'il y a des milliers d'actions sur le marché américain et encore plus si on inclut le marché mondial. La recherche académique démontre que la plupart des actions, sont moins performantes que les bons du Trésor américain sur de très longues périodes. François Doyon La Rochelle : C'est exact et c'est l'une des raisons pour lesquelles les stock pickers ont du mal à battre les indices. C'est pourquoi nous utilisons des fonds ou FNBs qui sont largement diversifiés pour bâtir nos portefeuilles. On veut s'assurer d'avoir les tous les titres les plus performants dans les comptes de nos clients. Enfin, pour ce qui est des actions internationales de pays développées, les actions à grande et moyenne capitalisation ont également bien faites depuis le début de l'année. Elles ont eu une performance de 12,1 % en monnaie locale. En dollars canadiens, les actions des pays développés ont augmenté un peu moins, soit de 9,1 %. C'est parce que le dollar canadien s'est apprécié par rapport au panier de devises inclus dans l'indice MSCI EAFE. Là encore, les actions de croissance à grande et moyenne capitalisation ont surpassé les actions de valeur. Elles ont eu une performance de 11,5 % en dollars canadiens, contre 6,7 % pour les actions de valeur à grande et moyenne capitalisation. Comme aux États-Unis et au Canada, les actions de petite capitalisation ont été à la traîne des actions à grande et moyenne capitalisation, avec une performance de 3,1 %, performance également en dollars canadiens. En conclusion, les marchés émergents ont bien fait avec une performance de 2,6 % depuis le début de l'année. Contrairement aux marchés développés, les actions de valeur et les actions de petites capitalisations se sont mieux comportées que les actions de croissance et les grandes capitalisations. Donc, je pense que ça fait le tour. 3) Mise à jour sur l'inflation : Francois Doyon La Rochelle : Comme deuxième sujet aujourd'hui on fait une mise à jour sur l'inflation, on en a beaucoup parlé dans notre podcast depuis le printemps 2022. Donc, James, peux-tu commencer par nous donner un résumé de la situation actuelle des taux d'inflation? James Parkyn : François, l'inflation s'est ralentie le mois dernier pour atteindre son rythme le plus faible en deux ans. Aux États-Unis, l'indice des prix à la consommation a augmenté de 3 % en juin par rapport à l'année précédente, ce qui est nettement inférieur au récent pic de 9,1 % atteint en juin 2022. L'indice de l'inflation de base, qui exclut les prix volatils de l'alimentation et de l'énergie, a également enregistré en juin sa plus faible hausse mensuelle depuis plus de deux ans. Bien que le taux d'inflation dans le rapport de juin sur l'IPC reste supérieur au niveau souhaité par la Fed, les données suggèrent des progrès évidents dans la réduction des pressions sur les prix vers des niveaux plus acceptables. François Doyon La Rochelle : Au Canada, les nouvelles sont encore meilleures. Le dernier rapport nous donne une inflation qui s'est établi à 2,8 % en juin donc c'est très encourageant mais, James qu'en est-il en l'Europe et au Royaume-Uni ? James Parkyn : L'inflation a baissé à 5,5 % dans les 20 pays utilisant l'euro et à 7,9 % au Royaume-Uni, mais ça reste bien supérieur à l'objectif de 2 % des banques. François Doyon La Rochelle : James, est-ce qu'il y a un consensus parmi les économistes ? Est-ce que les banques centrales peuvent crier victoire sur l'inflation ? James Parkyn : Nick Timaros dans le WSJ rapporte que : "Certains décideurs politiques et économistes de la Fed craignent que le ralentissement de l'inflation soit temporaire. Ils considèrent que le ralentissement de l'inflation était attendu depuis longtemps après la disparition des chocs liés à la pandémie qui ont fait grimper les loyers et les prix des transports et des voitures. Ils craignent que les pressions sous-jacentes sur les prix ne persistent, ce qui obligerait la Fed à relever ses taux et à les maintenir plus longtemps. Leur plus grande crainte est de savoir si la croissance des salaires et des prix peut ralentir suffisamment sans qu'il y ait une récession. François Doyon La Rochelle : Oui, Karen Dynan, une économiste à l'université de Harvard, est citée dans cet article. Elle déclare : "Bien que les choses semblent aller dans la bonne direction en ce qui concerne l'inflation, nous ne sommes qu'au début d'un long processus". James, qu'est-ce que les économistes de l'autre côté du débat disent ? James Parkyn : Nick Timaros poursuit et déclare que : "D'autres économistes affirment que ce raisonnement ne tient pas compte des signes de ralentissement économique actuel qui atténueront progressivement les pressions sur les prix. Ils affirment également que l'inflation ralentira suffisamment pour que les taux d'intérêt "réels" ou corrigés de l'inflation augmentent dans les mois à venir. Ça permettrait de renforcer l'impact des augmentation des taux d'intérêt, même si la hausse des taux du 27 juillet est la dernière du cycle de resserrement actuel”. François Doyon La Rochelle : Donc le débat est beaucoup plus autour de l'inflation des salaires. Le premier camp d'économistes est nerveux car il n'y a pas de marge de manœuvre et trop de demande dans l'économie pour être raisonnablement confiant que l'inflation va revenir à l'objectif de 2 % de la Fed dans les années à venir. James Parkyn : Exactement François. Plusieurs de ces économistes craignent que la croissance des salaires soit trop forte. En l'absence de récession, ils estiment qu'un marché du travail surchauffe poussera l'inflation de base à la hausse en 2024. Étant donné qu'un marché du travail en surchauffe est susceptible de se manifester d'abord au niveau des salaires, beaucoup d'économistes considèrent les augmentations de salaire comme un bon indicateur de la pression inflationniste sous-jacente. La notion derrière cette pensée, est qu'une croissance annuelle des salaires de 3,5 % serait compatible avec une inflation entre 2 % et 2,5 %, à condition que la productivité augmente d'environ 1 % à 1,5 % par an. François Doyon La Rochelle : Selon l'indice du coût de l'emploi du ministère américain du travail, les salaires ont augmenté de 5 % dans la période de janvier à mars par rapport à l'année précédente. La Fed surveille de près cet indice car c'est la mesure la plus complète de la croissance des salaires. James Parkyn : Le second camp d'économistes François estime qu'il existe de nombreuses preuves que le marché du travail se refroidit, ce qui réduit les pressions inflationnistes. Ils soulignent que le temps nécessaire aux chômeurs pour trouver un nouvel emploi s'est allongé. L'augmentation du nombre d'heures travaillées par les employés du secteur privé a ralentie en même temps que le nombre d'emplois non comblés. Benjamin Tal, économiste en chef adjoint chez CIBC World Markets, a dit dans le Global Mail qu': "Il s'attend à ce que l'économie saigne des postes vacants plutôt que des emplois. À savoir, les entreprises n'embaucheront pas mais ne licencieront pas. » François Doyon La Rochelle : La nouvelle encourageante dans tout ça c'est que la baisse de l'inflation va permettre aux banques centrales d'être plus patientes et de prendre leur temps avant de procéder à de nouvelles hausses de taux. James Parkyn : Absolument François. Aux États-Unis, le mois dernier la Fed a maintenu son taux directeur de référence pour les fonds fédéraux dans une fourchette comprise entre 5 % et 5,25 %. C'est la première fois qu'elle fait une pause après dix augmentations consécutives depuis mars 2022. À titre de rappel, les hausses de taux d'intérêt ralentissent l'économie par le biais des marchés financiers en réduisant le prix des actifs et en augmentant le coût de l'emprunt. François Doyon La Rochelle : Le 27 juillet, la Fed a augmenté le taux des fonds fédéraux de 25 points de base pour atteindre une fourchette cible entre 5,25 % et 5,50 %. Cette augmentation était attendu par les marchés. Ça correspond au sommet précédent atteint en 2006-07. Il faudrait remonter à 2001 pour trouver une période où les taux étaient plus élevés qu'aujourd'hui. La vitesse et l'ampleur de la hausse (plus de 500 points de base en 16 mois) est inégalée depuis le resserrement de la Fed en 1980. Ceci dit, l'inflation, selon l'indice des prix à la consommation, se rapproche de l'objectif de 2 % de la Fed, mais James qu'est-ce que les banques centrales disent des derniers chiffres d'inflation ? James Parkyn : Elles ont toutes le même message en insistant sur le fait que les conséquences économiques vont continuer à s'aggraver si l'inflation échappe à tout contrôle. Le gouverneur de la Banque d'Angleterre, Andrew Bailey, a été cité dans le Financial Times : "Notre tâche consiste à ramener l'inflation à son niveau cible et nous ferons ce qui est nécessaire. Je comprends les préoccupations qui en découlent, mais je crains de devoir toujours dire - que le résultat est pire si nous ne ramenons pas l'inflation à son niveau cible". Donc François, malgré le risque d'entrainer une récession, les banques centrales insistent sur le fait qu'ils prévoient de maintenir les taux à leur niveau élevé pendant un certain temps – en effet, probablement plus longtemps que ne le prévoient les marchés boursiers et obligataires. En résumé, Ils me semblent Francois qu'elles sont très synchronisées. François Doyon La Rochelle : Je suis d'accord James. En fait, la Banque des règlements internationaux (ou la BRI), l'organisation mondiale des banques centrales basée en Suisse, semble également d'accord. Dans un récent rapport, la BRI a souligné que depuis le début de l'année 2021, près de 95 % des banques centrales du monde ont relevé leurs taux. Cette synchronisation parmi les banques centrales est plus élevée lors du choc pétrolier inflationniste des années 1970. La BRI a qualifié cette situation de "resserrement de la politique monétaire le plus synchronisé et le plus intense depuis des décennies". James Parkyn : Je pense que l'on reconnaît de plus en plus que des erreurs de politiques monétaires ont été commises pendant la pandémie. Selon moi, ça m'indique que les taux d'intérêt doivent être normalisés à des niveaux beaucoup plus élevés que les taux très bas en vigueur pendant la pandémie. François Doyon La Rochelle : James qu'est-ce que les économistes disent de l'impact de la politique fiscale, autrement dit, au niveau des dépenses publiques sur l'inflation ? James Parkyn : Le journaliste David Parkinson a récemment posé la question suivante dans le Globe & Mail : "Dans quelle mesure le problème persistant de l'inflation au Canada peut-il être imputé aux dépenses du gouvernement ?" Dans son article, qui fait suite à la dernière hausse des taux d'intérêt de la Banque du Canada, il souligne que le gouverneur, Tiff Macklem, a noté dans les dernières projections économiques de la Banque, que la croissance des dépenses publiques est d'environ 2 %, ce qui correspond au taux estimé de croissance de la production potentielle de l'économie. Selon lui, cela signifie que la contribution du gouvernement à l'équilibre entre l'offre et la demande de l'économie est neutre. Il avance que ça n'aide pas à résoudre le problème de l'excès de demande qui continue d'alimenter les pressions inflationnistes. Mais d'un autre côté, il n'aggrave pas non plus le problème. Mais il affirme également que si l'on compare les dépenses publiques aux niveaux antérieurs à la pandémie, la politique fiscale en matière des dépenses est stimulatrice. François Doyon La Rochelle : Intuitivement, les gouvernements pourraient également contribuer à la lutte contre l'inflation. Ils pourraient réduire les dépenses qui sont essentiellement financées par des déficits afin de diminuer la demande. Je pense que ça aiderait les banques centrales parce qu'elles auraient moins besoin d'augmenter les taux d'intérêt. James Parkyn : À ce sujet, François, Gita Gopinath, directrice exécutive adjointe du Fonds monétaire international, dans un discours prononcé lors de la conférence annuelle de la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) à Sintra, au Portugal, le mois dernier, a affirmé que "certains effets secondaires de la lutte contre l'inflation par la politique monétaire pourraient être réduits en donnant à la politique fiscale des dépenses un rôle plus important. » Mme Gopinath a ajouté : "Compte tenu des conditions économiques dans lesquelles nous nous trouvons, à la fois en raison d'une inflation élevée et de niveaux d'endettement record, ces deux éléments plaident en faveur d'un resserrement de la politique fiscale. Si l'on examine les déficits budgétaires prévus pour de nombreux pays du G7, on s'aperçoit qu'ils sont trop élevés pour trop longtemps. " François Doyon La Rochelle : Elle a également lancé un avertissement et je la cite : "Les banques centrales doivent accepter la "vérité inconfortable" qu'elles devront peut-être tolérer une période plus longue d'inflation supérieure à leur objectif de 2 % pour éviter une crise financière ». James, la baisse de l'inflation est-elle une bonne nouvelle pour les investisseurs ? James Parkyn : Oui, je pense que le fait que les taux plus élevés pour plus longtemps seraient une bonne nouvelle pour les investisseurs. Je pense également que la vraie nouvelle est que nous commençons maintenant à obtenir des taux d'intérêt réels positifs. Enfin, de nombreux économistes prévoient une baisse des taux de la Banque centrale de 2024 et pour certain, ça sera en 2025. Preston Caldwell, économiste en chef chez Morningstar, a déclaré dans un rapport récent que "l'inflation montre maintenant des signes généralisés de décélération" et que "la Fed est toujours susceptible d'augmenter ses taux lors de sa réunion de juillet, mais le rapport d'aujourd'hui sur l'inflation selon l'IPC soutient notre opinion selon laquelle la Fed passera à une réduction agressive en 2024 après la chute de l'inflation". Francois, on le sait la Fed a effectivement augmenter ses taux à la réunion de juillet. François Doyon La Rochelle : Pour les investisseurs qui ont évité les titres à revenu fixe par crainte des hausses de taux, c'est peut-être maintenant le temps de réexaminer vos portefeuilles de titres à revenu fixe. Les investisseurs reçoivent maintenant un rendement réel positif, c'est-à-dire après l'inflation, avec leurs investissements obligataires. Ce qui n'a pas été le cas depuis belles lurettes. James Parkyn : L'exemple parfait est que nous obtenons maintenant de bien meilleurs taux sur les CPG. Récemment, les taux des CPG étaient autour de 5.5% pour 1 an, et autour de 5,2 % pour 5 ans. Ces taux sont nettement plus élevés que notre estimation du rendement attendu des obligations de 4,26 %. Nos auditeurs peuvent consulter le plus récent rapport de PWL que l'on vient de publier sur les hypothèses de planification financière. Malgré la hausse générale des prix des obligations, les rendements aujourd'hui plus élevés qu'ils ne l'ont été pendant la majeure partie de la dernière décennie. François Doyon La Rochelle : À l'heure actuelle, les titres à revenu fixe vous procurent un bon revenu. Sur une base "réelle", les taux semblent très attrayants si on les compare aux prévisions d'inflation pour les années à venir. Par exemple, l'estimation de PWL pour l'inflation est à 2,2 % par an. Un investisseur qui achète un CPG à échéance dans 5 ans, comme tu l'as mentionné James, obtiendrait 5,2 %, soit un rendement réel de 3 %. James Parkyn : En conclusion, François, la clé pour les investisseurs est que même si les banques centrales augmentent encore un peu leurs taux, la fin du cycle haussier actuel se profile à l'horizon, à moins d'une résurgence de l'inflation. Comme nous l'avons dit à maintes reprises, nous ne faisons pas de Market Timing, autant du côté des actions que des obligations. Spécifiquement pour les obligations, n'essayez pas de prévoir le sommet des taux d'intérêt. Je veux également François partager avec nos auditeurs une citation intéressante de Dimensional qui provient de son rapport semestriel et je cite : " Ce que les investisseurs savent, c'est que les marchés continueront à traiter rapidement les informations au fur et à mesure qu'elles seront disponibles. Un plan à long terme, axé sur les objectifs individuels et fondé sur la confiance dans les prix du marché, peut placer les investisseurs dans les meilleures conditions pour vivre une bonne expérience, quoi qu'il arrive. » François Doyon La Rochelle : En d'autres termes, James, il ne faut pas essayer de deviner la fin du cycle de hausse des taux. Je rappelle à nos auditeurs que notre discipline consiste à investir avec "l'état d'esprit de l'investisseur, axé sur le long terme". On ne veut pas se laisser influencer par le bruit à court terme des médias financiers et par la volatilité des marchés. C'est un défi de taille qui s'applique à tous les investisseurs, même aux professionnels. On l'a souvent répété dans notre podcast : "C'est simple à dire mais pas facile à faire : Il faut toujours être conscients qu'on peut tomber dans le piège d'essayer de "prévoir l'avenir". 4) Conclusion : François Doyon La Rochelle : Merci James Parkyn d'avoir partagé ton expertise et ton savoir. James Parkyn : il m'a fait plaisir Francois. François Doyon La Rochelle : Hé bien c'est tout pour ce 55ième épisode de Sujet Capital ! Nous espérons que vous avez aimé. N'hésitez pas à nous envoyer vos questions et suggestions. Vous pouvez nous joindre par courriel à: sujetcapital@pwlcapital.com De plus, si vous aimez notre podcast, partagez-le avec votre famille et vos amis et si vous n'y êtes pas abonné, faites-le SVP. Encore une fois, merci d'être à l'écoute et joignez-vous à nous pour notre prochain épisode à paraitre le 28 septembre exceptionnellement car nous prenons une pause pour l'été. Profitez de votre été et à bientôt!
IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath speaks to Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua at the ECB Forum on Central Banking event in Sintra, Portugal. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
How stable is the global economic recovery? And is geoeconomic fragmentation a threat? Gita Gopinath, the IMF's First Deputy Managing Director, joins our host Katie Ranger on the ECB Podcast to discuss these and other questions while at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. Published on 27 June 2023 and recorded on 27 June 2023. Further reading: Three Uncomfortable Truths For Monetary Policy - Remarks by Gita Gopinath at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, 26 June 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/conferences/ecbforum/shared/pdf/2023/Gopinath_speech.pdf Three Uncomfortable Truths For Monetary Policy - Presentation by Gita Gopinath at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, 26 June 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/conferences/ecbforum/shared/pdf/2023/Gopinath_presentation.pdf IMF's world economic outlook 2023 https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/04/11/world-economic-outlook-april-2023 IMF's report on geoeconomic fragmentation and the future of multilateralism https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2023/01/11/Geo-Economic-Fragmentation-and-the-Future-of-Multilateralism-527266 ECB Forum on Central Banking 2023 – programme https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/conferences/html/20230626_ecb_forum_on_central_banking.en.html Link to Gita Gopinath's opening speech, 26th of June: https://youtube.com/live/wbIbpItoOT4?feature=share European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu
Stuart Kaiser, Citi Head of US Equity Trading Strategy, says we're seeing some "fatigue" in tech buying. Gita Gopinath, IMF First Deputy Managing Director, says a number of factors could be "muting the effect of monetary policy transmission," and as those effects decline, "we can start seeing more of a slowing in activity." Kit Juckes, Societe Generale Chief FX Strategist, sees weakness ahead for the dollar. Cameron Dawson, NewEdge Wealth CIO, believes in the 60/40 portfolio plus alternatives. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Chairman and Co-Founder, discusses his interview with Afsaneh Beschloss, RockCreek Founder & CEO.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Volgens het IMF gaat het nog lang duren voordat de inflatie terug is op het oude niveau. Dat heeft Gita Gopinath gezegd, de 'nummer twee' van het IMF, tijdens een bijeenkomst in het Portugese Sintra. Het was slechts één van de in totaal drie benoemde ongemakkelijke waarheden die het IMF voorspiegelde. 'Daar moeten we iets mee', zegt macro-econoom Edin Mujagic. Naast het tijdspad benoemde Gopinath ook de aanpak van de inflatie en de daarbij behorende spanningen. De noodzakelijke verhoging van de rentes kan immers zorgen voor financiële instabiliteit. Daarnaast ging de adjunct-directeur-generaal in op de rol van de centrale banken. Die zullen waarschijnlijk gedurende een langere periode een hoge inflatie moeten tolereren. 'Drie ongemakkelijke waarheden', zegt Mujagic. IMF-econoom Gita Gopinath. Volgens het IMF gaat het nog lang duren voordat de inflatie terug is op het oude niveau. Het was slechts één van de in totaal drie benoemde ongemakkelijke waarheden die het IMF voorspiegelde. (ANP / Associated Press)Centrale banken verhogen rentes Maar het verhaal dat Gopinath vertelt is niet geheel nieuw. Zowel de ECB als de Fed hebben de afgelopen tijd meerdere keren aangegeven dat ze de rente moeten verhogen. En ook de Bank of England besloot vorige week om de rente opnieuw te verhogen. 'Daar moeten wij iets mee doen', zegt Mujagic. Lees ook | ECB verhoogt rente in juli Die boodschap kwam nagenoeg simultaan met het IMF-betoog van de topman van de Bank voor de Internationale Betalingen, de Mexicaan Agustín Carstens. 'Hij zei dat inflatie weliswaar een gevolg is van de oorlog in Oekraïne, maar dat de steun vanuit de overheden en de aarzelingen bij de centrale banken hier ook een rol spelen. Die moeten hier iets aan doen', zegt Mujagic. Daarom denkt de macro-econoom dat er ruimte is voor een vierde ongemakkelijke waarheid. 'Centrale banken verhogen de rentes om de inflatie aan te pakken. Dat remt de economische groei en dat is pijnlijk voor mensen. Overheden gaan die pijn echter compenseren en dan belanden we in een vicieuze cirkel die niets oplost.' Daarom denkt Mujagic dat overheden moeten stoppen met compenseren en dat de centrale banken moeten doorgaan met het verhogen van de rente. Lees ook | 'Overheid moet stoppen met stimuleren' Het is een ongemakkelijke maar waarheidsgetrouwe conclusie, denkt Mujagic. Gopinath zei overigens wel het vertrouwen te hebben dat de centrale bankiers deze taak met succes kunnen uitvoeren. 'Ondanks alle mooie woorden, gelooft men nog steeds in sprookjes.' See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
David Malpass, World Bank President, says the developing world is under "giant pressure" from debt. Gita Gopinath, IMF First Deputy Managing Director, says the balance of risks facing the world economy remain tilted to the downside. Paolo Gentiloni, EU Commissioner for Economy, says Europe is on track to rebalance China trade. Tobias Adrian, IMF Director of Monetary and Capital Markets, says there's certainly evidence in the data of some contraction in lending. Raghuram Rajan, Chicago Booth Professor of Finance, Former IMF Chief Economist & Former Reserve Bank of India Governor, says longer-term growth "doesn't look good." See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
“My fear is that we are sleepwalking into this world. But hey, here is Davos! Wake up! Do the right thing!” That's the rallying cry of Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, imploring the global elite at this week's World Economic Forum to be vigilant as an almost unrivaled list of perils weighs on the world's leaders. Recession looks set to sweep across the globe, nations are leaning more heavily on coal amid tight energy supplies and the cost of servicing debt is soaring. Getting things wrong, Georgieva says, means dragging the “world into a place where we'll be all poorer and we would be less secure.” In this week's episode of the Stephanomics podcast, host Stephanie Flanders chats with a star-studded list of international economists, finance ministers and corporate chieftains from Davos, Switzerland. Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the IMF, explains why finance ministers and central bankers are caught in an almost impossible dilemma: High inflation requires central bankers to raise interest rates to cool the economy, even as governments spend more to help consumers hurting from soaring energy and food costs. Longer term, real interest rates may stay high unless countries can get more targeted with their relief programs, instead of spreading assistance universally, argues Raghuram Rajan, a finance professor at the University of Chicago and former governor of the Reserve Bank of India. The US overspent during the pandemic, partly because “every constituency got a share of the spending simply because they couldn't make choices,” Rajan says. Next, Flanders has a decidedly more upbeat chat with Nandan Nilekani, chairman of Indian tech giant Infosys Ltd. With news that China's population has declined for the first time in decades, India is set to become the world's most populous country. What's more, Nilekani sees the country benefiting from manufacturers seeking an alternative to China, spooked by the latter nation's repeated factory shutdowns amid its Covid-zero policy. Per capita incomes may grow from $3,000 now to $15,000 in the next 25 years, and “that's much more than a middle-income country,” Nilekani says. Finally, Nela Richardson, chief economist at US-based payroll and business outsourcing firm Automatic Data Processing Inc., says real wages have declined across the world recently, even if nominal wage gains have created a myth that workers are “in the driver's seat.” Businesses would benefit from paying workers a living wage, which despite the apparent expense actually results in better productivity and lowers costs, Richardson tells Flanders. “Will inflation moderate enough and wages stay solid enough that workers actually benefit from lower inflation? We don't know that yet,” Richardson says.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
With inflation soaring and real wages falling, an expert panel asks: Have we seen the worst of inflation? Will the cost of living crisis get worse before it better? What role will productivity play? And do policy-makers need a new toolkit to tackle this challenge? Learn more from this panel held at the World Economic Forum 2023 Annual Meeting 17 January with top economic minds including: Christian Lindner, Federal Minister of Finance for Germany; Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund; Alan Jope, Chief Executive Officer, Unilever; and Laura Tyson, distinguished professor, Graduate School of Berkeley. SubscribeSubscribe on any platform: https://pod.link/1574956552 Join the World Economic Forum Podcast Club Follow all the action from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting 2023 at wef.ch/wef23 and across social media using the hashtag #WEF23.
Experts ask: Have we seen the worst of inflation? Will the cost of living crisis get worse before it better? What role will productivity play? And do policy-makers need a new toolkit to tackle this challenge? Learn more from this panel held at the World Economic Forum 2023 Annual Meeting 17 January with top economic minds including: Christian Lindner, Federal Minister of Finance for Germany; Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund; Alan Jope, Chief Executive Officer, Unilever; and Laura Tyson, distinguished professor, Graduate School of Berkeley. Subscribe Subscribe on any platform: https://pod.link/1574956552 Join the World Economic Forum Podcast Club Follow all the action from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting 2023 at wef.ch/wef23 and across social media using the hashtag #WEF23. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Experts ask: Have we seen the worst of inflation? Will the cost of living crisis get worse before it better? What role will productivity play? And do policy-makers need a new toolkit to tackle this challenge?Learn more from this panel held at the World Economic Forum 2023 Annual Meeting 17 January with top economic minds including: Christian Lindner, Federal Minister of Finance for Germany; Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund; Alan Jope, Chief Executive Officer, Unilever; and Laura Tyson, distinguished professor, Graduate School of Berkeley. SubscribeSubscribe on any platform: https://pod.link/1574956552Join the World Economic Forum Podcast ClubFollow all the action from the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting 2023 at wef.ch/wef23 and across social media using the hashtag #WEF23. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Buckle up. Global financial leaders warn that the current era of expensive money is likely to stick around for at least another year, and maybe longer. Easing up on interest rates now would only embed high inflation in people's assumptions, and "that's where it becomes very long-lasting," says former UBS Group AG Chairman Axel Weber. In this special edition from the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore, three experts in banking and monetary policy share with host Stephanie Flanders why central bankers will be battling inflation in the short term as well as the long. In the US, there's little doubt the Federal Reserve will bump up interest rates again this year, says Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund. "For 2023, the question is more about how long are you going to keep these rates at the levels that they've moved them to. And we see a need to keep it at over 4% for all of 2023 to be able to bring inflation down durably,'' Gopinath said. Globally, changes in the supply chain and the transition to a greener economy will drive up energy costs and could lead to structurally higher inflation, said Davide Serra, chief executive of asset manager Algebris Investments. As usual, the poorest are most in jeopardy. Already, about 60% of low-income countries are in high-debt distress, Gopinath said, and while a systemic debt crisis has yet to materialize, she warns these are "very risky times."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
En el pod-newsletter de hoy: 1. Gita Gopinath. 2. Rishi. 3. Xi Jinping. 4. Índices chinos. 5. Gas Natural. 🔎 ✍️: Los acuerdos del Plaza. Puedes leer el podcast, consultar los enlaces de las noticias comentadas y suscribirte a la newsletter en este link: https://nofinancieros.substack.com/p/los-acuerdos-del-plaza Otros enlaces de escucha en: https://finpickstonks.carrd.co/ Más en: https://nofinancieros.com/ ¿Te ha molado el podcast? Invítate a algo, ¿no? ;) https://ko-fi.com/nofinancieros
En el pod-newsletter de hoy: 1. Gita Gopinath. 2. Rishi. 3. Xi Jinping. 4. Índices chinos. 5. Gas Natural.
Gita Gopinath, IMF First Deputy Managing Director, says nations are in for a “rocky ride” as they adjust to dollar strength. Raghuram Rajan, Former Central Bank of India Governor, says larger emerging market countries have become more prepared for a crisis by building up their FX reserves. Stephen Stanley, Amherst Pierpont Chief Economist, says a Fed pivot is not in the cards right now. Eric Freedman, US Bank Asset Management Chief Investment Officer, thinks it makes sense to dip into the front end of the treasury curve. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
While international financial institutions work with policymakers to help countries navigate their way through the myriad of disruptions in the global economy of late, the private sector plays a critical role in catalyzing investment that will help bring long-term solutions. In this podcast, Alphabet and Google Chief Financial Officer Ruth Porat and IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath discuss the growing number of challenges facing the global economy and the opportunities where the private sector can help. Transcript: https://bit.ly/39X0g0S
On the final day of the Meeting, Peter Prengaman, climate and environmental news director at the Associated Press, gives us his impressions of his first Davos. We hear the IMF's Gita Gopinath and others on the prospects for global growth; we find out what schoolgirls in a refugee camp in Kenya want to hear from leaders at Davos; and hear acclaimed musicians Yo-Yo Ma and Emanuel Ax at the Davos concert ‘Our Shared Humanity'.
On the final day of the Meeting, Peter Prengaman, climate and environmental news director at the Associated Press, gives us his impressions of his first Davos. We hear the IMF's Gita Gopinath and others on the prospects for global growth; we find out what schoolgirls in a refugee camp in Kenya want to hear from leaders at Davos; and hear acclaimed musicians Yo-Yo Ma and Emanuel Ax at the Davos concert ‘Our Shared Humanity'.
The recovery from the COVID-19 crisis has been deeply uneven within and between countries, depending on their access to fiscal resources and vaccines. Food, fuel and resource crises now risk further derailing an equitable recovery. How can a broader set of foundations for growth ensure long-term economic prosperity and a return to international convergence? This is the full audio from a panel discussion at Davos 2022 with Tom Keene, Managing Editor, Bloomberg Television & Radio; Jim Hagemann Snabe, Chairman, Siemens AG; Mariana Mazzucato, Professor, University College London (UCL); Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund.
The recovery from the COVID-19 crisis has been deeply uneven within and between countries, depending on their access to fiscal resources and vaccines. Food, fuel and resource crises now risk further derailing an equitable recovery. How can a broader set of foundations for growth ensure long-term economic prosperity and a return to international convergence? This is the full audio from a panel discussion at Davos 2022 with Tom Keene, Managing Editor, Bloomberg Television & Radio; Jim Hagemann Snabe, Chairman, Siemens AG; Mariana Mazzucato, Professor, University College London (UCL); Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
The recovery from the COVID-19 crisis has been deeply uneven within and between countries, depending on their access to fiscal resources and vaccines. Food, fuel and resource crises now risk further derailing an equitable recovery.How can a broader set of foundations for growth ensure long-term economic prosperity and a return to international convergence?This is the full audio from a panel discussion at Davos 2022 with Tom Keene, Managing Editor, Bloomberg Television & Radio; Jim Hagemann Snabe, Chairman, Siemens AG; Mariana Mazzucato, Professor, University College London (UCL); Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
Dünya ekonomisinde işler giderek daha zor bir hale geliyor. Davos'ta devam eden Dünya Ekonomi Forumu'ndan gelen mesajlar karamsarlığı daha fazla artırıyor. GEORGİEVA'NIN KORKUSU Ekonomi dünyasının yakından takip ettiği, dünyadaki önemli siyasi ve ekonomi aktörlerinin bir araya geldiği Davos'taki Dünya Ekonomi Forumu toplantılarında konuşan Uluslararası Para Fonu (IMF) Başkanı Kristalina Georgieva, 2022 yılının zor bir yıl olacağını söyledi. IMF Başkanı'nın konuşmasındaki en dikkat çekici konulardan birisi gıda fiyatlarındaki artışa ilişkin yaptığı değerlendirmeydi. Georgieva, büyüme yavaşladığında benzin kullanımının azaltılabileceğini ama her gün yemek yemeye devam edileceğini söylerken makul bir fiyatla yiyeceğe erişim konusundaki endişesini vurgulamış oldu. Georgieva'nın gıda fiyatları ile ilgili endişelerini haklı çıkaracak yakın tarihteki en önemli gelişme Hindistan'ın ülke dışına buğday çıkışını yasaklamasıydı. Bu yasak ile beraber küresel buğday fiyatlarındaki artış hızlanmıştı. Buna ilave olarak Davos toplantıları devam ederken yine Hindistan'dan bu kez şeker ihracatının yasaklanmasının planlandığı haberi geldi. GOPİNATH'IN ENFLASYON VURGUSU Davos'ta konuşan bir diğer IMF yetkilisi de IMF Başkan Yardımcısı Gita Gopinath oldu. Gopinath'ın temel vurgusu ise enflasyondu. IMF Başkan Yardımcısı, ABD Merkez Bankası Fed'in enflasyonu bir an önce kontrol altına alması gerektiğinin altını çiziyor. Diğer yandan Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı nedeniyle korumacı politikalar uygulayan ülkelere de ciddi bir uyarı var. Gopinath, bu tarz politikaların enflasyonu daha da tetikleyeceğini ve gıda fiyatlarındaki artışların daha da büyük endişelere yol açabileceğini belirtiyor. IMF'NİN BÜYÜME TAHMİNLERİ Davos öncesi dönemde de IMF'nin tahminlerindeki karamsar tutum raporlara yansımıştı. Geçtiğimiz Nisan ayında yayınlanan IMF Dünya Ekonomik Görünüm Raporu “Savaş Küresel Toparlanmayı Geciktiriyor” başlığı ile yayınlanmıştı. Söz konusu raporda 2022 yılına ilişkin olarak bir önceki raporda küresel ekonomi için yapılan %4,4'lük büyüme tahmini %3,6'ya düşürülerek revize edilmişti. Raporda ayrıca küresel enflasyonun savaş kaynaklı emtia fiyatlarındaki artışlar ve genişleyen fiyat baskıları nedeniyle tahmin edilenden daha uzun süre yüksek kalmasının beklendiği belirtilmişti.
The International Monetary Fund has revised its projections for Egypt's real GDP growth in 2022 to reach 5.9 per cent, up from 5.6 per cent expected in January. The IMF also expected Egypt's GDP to register 5 per cent in 2023.The IMF expected Egypt's real GDP growth to reach 5.6 per cent, compared to growth projections of 5.2 per cent in its previous report in October. IMF's Chief Economist, Gita Gopinath says Egypt was the only country among the oil-importing nations to record a positive growth rate thanks to its good management of the Covid-19 pandemic's fallout.
John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President, says including hikes in increments of a half-percentage point is a “reasonable option” for the Fed. Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director, says the war in Ukraine is threatening the world order. Gita Gopinath, IMF First Deputy Managing Director, expects to see inflation easing toward 3% in the second half of the year. Angela Stent, Brookings Non-Resident Senior Fellow and Dan Yergin, S&P Global Vice Chairman, discuss their outlook for the war in Ukraine. Adam Posen, Peterson Institute President & Former BOE Monetary Policy Committee Member, says inflation is probably peaking in the U.S. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The last two years have proven a test for the global financial system, and the nature of the crises is getting more complex by the day. In this podcast, Foreign Policy magazine's Ravi Agrawal asks the IMF's two top leaders how governments should respond to the growing number of challenges facing the global economy. Transcript: https://bit.ly/382IPKX Watch the webcast at https://foreignpolicy.com/events/
What impact will the war in Ukraine have on the world economy and globalisation? Will it reshape the existing economic order built over decades? Host Rachana Shanbhogue asks Gita Gopinath, the First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund. And how will geopolitics, further disruptions to supply chains and an upswing in covid cases affect China's economy? The Economist's China economics editor, Simon Cox, and China business and finance editor, Don Weinland, assess whether China's determination to follow a zero-covid policy will hamper its prospects.Sign up for our new weekly newsletter dissecting the big themes in markets, business and the economy at economist.com/moneytalks For full access to print, digital and audio editions, subscribe to The Economist at www.economist.com/podcastoffer See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
What impact will the war in Ukraine have on the world economy and globalisation? Will it reshape the existing economic order built over decades? Host Rachana Shanbhogue asks Gita Gopinath, the First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund. And how will geopolitics, further disruptions to supply chains and an upswing in covid cases affect China's economy? The Economist's China economics editor, Simon Cox, and China business and finance editor, Don Weinland, assess whether China's determination to follow a zero-covid policy will hamper its prospects.Sign up for our new weekly newsletter dissecting the big themes in markets, business and the economy at economist.com/moneytalks For full access to print, digital and audio editions, subscribe to The Economist at www.economist.com/podcastoffer See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sparked a massive humanitarian and economic crisis. Gita Gopinath, First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, tells FRANCE 24 the war will also have "lasting consequences on the global economy". Also in the show: how should the current energy crisis be compared to the 1973 oil shock?
Raphael Bostic, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President, says the Fed should be trying to get policies back into a more normal situation. Patrick Harker, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President, says the Fed should finished tapering before considering a rate hike. Robert Kaplan, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President, wants to start tapering soon and continue gradually over the next eight months. James Bullard, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President, expects the job market to be in "great shape" in early 2022. Gita Gopinath, IMF Chief Economist & Director of Research, says Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been doing a great job in very difficult times. Mark Kimmitt, Retired Brigadier General, Former Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs and Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Affairs, says we must tighten up our security in Afghanistan. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
https://www.business-standard.com/about/who-is-gita-gopinath https://scholar.harvard.edu/gopinath/publications/banking-trade-and-making-dominant-currency https://scholar.harvard.edu/gopinath/publications/cash-and-economy-evidence-india%E2%80%99s-demonetization https://scholar.harvard.edu/gopinath/publications/tariff-passthrough-border-and-store-evidence-us-trade-policy
Gita Gopinath discusses the US dollar's status as the world's reserve currency, and the importance of a multilateral approach to global issues. Sources can be found at: ubs.com/WIE. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Gita Gopinath, IMF Chief Economist, says President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus plan could boost U.S. GDP by 5% over three years. Lawrence Gostin, Georgetown University Professor, says public-private partnerships helped match the challenge that Covid-19 brought to the U.S. and they are the way forward. Tina Fordham, Avonhurst Partner and Head of Global Political Strategy, says we are currently in a volatile period as a result of a global pandemic leading to political disruption and extremism. Chris Hyzy, Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank Chief Investment Officer, sees the "maverick bull market" continuing. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
Markets Rebound, Nestle Aims To Sell Waters Business & Airlines Fly Higher | Daily Financial News Summary for Friday, June 12, 2020 Major indexes made a rebound Friday, following a poor trading session on Thursday. The Dow Jones rose by 1.90, the S&P 500 by 1.31%, and the NASDAQ by 1.01%. Despite the gains today, all three indexes have posted their first weekly loss in a month. Oil fell again, for the second day in a row. West Texas Intermediate fell by 0.2%, settling at $36.26 per barrel. This is the first time that West Texas Intermediate has ended in a loss in the past seven weeks. Gita Gopinath of International Monetary Fund spoke in a video released Friday about the state of the economy and how its recovery has been slower than expected. She used the words “significant scarring” to describe the economy's current state. IMF is expected to release an updated global growth projection on June 24. This is to follow April's projections of a 3% global contraction. A possible second wave of the coronavirus has hit certain areas in the United States. Texas saw an increase of over 2,500 new cases within a single day yesterday. Arizona, Utah, and New Mexico have all seen a 40% increase in new cases recently. Arkansas, Florida, North Carolina and South Carolina all experienced an over 30% increase in cases last week. Officials in Texas discussed the idea of reinstating the stay-at-home order. Naeem Aslam from AvaTrade spoke about Friday's rebound: “I suspect the bounce is a dead cat bounce because the sentiment is further dented by the fresh comments by the chief economist of the IMF who said that the world economy is growing much slower than the anticipation and the scars of the coronavirus pandemic may linger for much longer.” Consumer sentiment rose in June, for another month in a row. In May, consumer sentiment was at 72.3. This increased to 78.9 in June, above the estimate of 75. This was the largest margin of increase since 2016. This is an indication that consumers are becoming more confident with the condition and future expectations for the economy. Said Richard Curtin of the University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers: “The turnaround is largely due to renewed gains in employment, with more consumers expecting declines in the jobless rate than at any other time in the long history of the Michigan surveys.” Nestle announced its plan to sell most of its Nestle Waters business in North America within the next 6-8 months according to inside sources, with the exception of its international brands like San Pellegrino and Perrier. This would include its regional spring water brands, including Poland Spring, Deer Park, and Ice Mountain. It also would include its purified water business and beverage delivery service. Its direct-to-consumer and office beverage delivery service brands include ReadyRefresh by Nestle and the Nestle Pure Life brand would also likely be a part of the final sale. READ MORE: https://callputstrike.com/2020/06/12/markets-rebound-nestle-aims-to-sell-waters-business-airlines-fly-higher-daily-financial-news-summary-for-friday-june-12-2020/ The Reality of Winning Prizes on Game Shows Thousands of Americans watch game shows every single day. It can be exciting to answer questions along with the contestants and imaging winning the grand prize. However, it is important to remember that winning prizes on a game show isn't all that it's cracked up to be. READ MORE: https://callputstrike.com/2020/06/12/the-reality-of-winning-prizes-on-game-shows/ --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/callputstrike/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/callputstrike/support
Gabriela Santos, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, is bearish on European equities in the short term. Catherine Barnard, Cambridge University Professor, discusses the challenges incoming U.K. Tory Leader Boris Johnson could face if he has to govern without a majority. Narayana Kocherlakota, Bloomberg View Columnist & former Minneapolis Fed President, says Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has proven himself to be a consensus builder. Gita Gopinath, IMF Chief Economist, says inflation is "undershooting for most of the major economies." And Francine Lacqua, Bloomberg Surveillance TV Anchor, discusses who Boris Johnson may appoint to his cabinet. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
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