Podcasts about Vinge

Back after a year on hiatus! Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast They, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; Aspirationally Bi-Weekly (Meaning Every Other Week); Aspirationally an hour...Sokrates: The people find some protector, whom they nurse into greatness… but then changes, as indicated in the old fable of the Temple of Zeus of the Wolf, of how he who tastes human flesh mixed up with the flesh of other sacrificial victims will turn into a wolf. Even so, the protector, once metaphorically tasting human blood, slaying some and exiling others, within or without the law, hinting at the cancellation of debts and the fair redistribution of lands, must then either perish or become a werewolf—that is, a tyrant…Key Insights:* We are back! After a year-long hiatus.* Hexapodia is a metaphor: a small, strange insight (like alien shrubs riding on six-wheeled carts as involuntary agents of the Great Evil) can provide key insight into useful and valuable Truth.* The Democratic Party is run by 27-year-old staffers, not geriatric figurehead politicians–this shapes messaging and internal dynamics.* The American progressive movement did not possess enough assibayah to keep from fracturing over Gaza War, especially among younger Democratic staffers influenced by social media discourse.* The left's adoption of “indigeneity” rhetoric undermined its ability to be a coalition in the face of tensions generated by the Hamas-Israel terrorism campaigns.* Trump's election with more popular votes than Harris destroyed Democratic belief that they had a right to oppose root-and-branch.* The belief that Democrats are the “natural majority” of the U.S. electorate is now false: nonvoters lean Trump, not so much Republican, and definitely not Democratic.* Trump's populism is not economic redistribution, but a claim to provide a redistribution of status and respect to those who feel culturally disrespected.* The Supreme Court's response to Trumpian overreach is likely to be very cautious—Barrett and Roberts are desperately eager to avoid any confrontation with Trump they might wind up losing, and Alito, Kavanaugh, Gorsuch, and Thomas will go the extra mile—they are Republicans who are judges, not judges who are Republicans, except in some extremis that may not even exist.* Trump's administration pursues selective repression through the state, rather than stochastic terrorism.* The economic consequence of the second Trump presidency look akin to another Brexit costing the U.S. ~10% of its prosperity, or more.* Social media, especially Twitter a status warfare machine–amplifying trolls and extremists, suppressing nuance.* People addicted to toxic media diets but lack the tools or education to curate better information environments.* SubStack and newsletters may become part of a healthier information ecosystem, a partial antidote to the toxic amplification of the Shouting Class on social media.* Human history is marked by information revolutions (e.g., printing press), each producing destructive upheaval before stabilization: destruction, that may or may not be creative.* As in the 1930s, we are entering a period where institutions–not mobs–become the threat, even as social unrest diminishes.* The dangers are real,and recognizing and adapting to new communication realities is key to preserving democracy.* Plato's Republic warned of democracy decaying into tyranny, especially when mob-like populism finds a strongman champion who then, having (metaphorically) fed on human flesh, becomes a (metaphorical) werewolf.* Enlightenment values relied more than we knew on print-based gatekeeping and slow communication; digital communication bypasses these safeguards.* The cycle of crisis and recovery is consistent through history: societies fall into holes they later dig out of, usually at great cost—or they don't.* &, as always, HEXAPODIA!References:* Brown, Chad P. 2025. “Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide”. PIIE. .* Center for Humane Technology. 2020. “The Social Dilemma”. .* Hamilton, Alexander, James Madison, & John Jay. 1788. The Federalist Papers. .* Nowinski, Wally. 2024. “Democrats benefit from low turnout now”. Noahpinion. July 20. .* Platon of the Athenai. -375 [1871]. Politeia. .* Rorty, Richard. 1998. Achieving Our Country. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. * Rothpletz, Peter. 2024. “Economics 101 tells us there's no going back from Trumpism”. The Hill. September 24. .* Smith, Noah. 2021. “Wokeness as Respect Redistribution”. Noahpinion..* Smith, Noah. 2016. “How to actually redistribute respect”. Noahpinion. March 23. .* Smith, Noah. 2013. “Redistribute wealth? No, redistribute respect”. Noahpinion. December 27. .* SubStack. 2025. “Building a New Economic Engine for Culture”. .&* Vinge, Vernor. 1999. A Deepness in the Sky. New York: Tor Books. .If reading this gets you Value Above Replacement, then become a free subscriber to this newsletter. And forward it! And if your VAR from this newsletter is in the three digits or more each year, please become a paid subscriber! I am trying to make you readers—and myself—smarter. Please tell me if I succeed, or how I fail… Get full access to Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality at braddelong.substack.com/subscribe

Henrik Landerholms senaste fadäser, Hanna Hellquists veterinärnota, bojkotter, Johan Pehrsons popularitet i Paris och SD:s framtidsnamn – det är bara några av ämnena som avhandlas i dagens avsnitt av Åsiktskorridoren. Med Anders Lindberg, Susanna Kierkegaard, Kalle Sundin och Ulrica Schenström.

BREAK A DEAL. SPIN THE WHEEL. First John Cribbs spun the wheel. Then, he got to pick a book to cover. This week on Authorized, we're discussing Joan D. Vinge's Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome. It's all the pizzazz and razzmatazz of a Vinge novel with all the post-apocalyptic mayhem of Max Rockatanksy. If you don't like this episode, maybe you don't like Authorized! Subscribe to our Patreon!: patreon.com/authorizedpod  Follow us on Twitter: Twitter.com/authorizedpod  Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/authorizedpod.bsky.social  Instagram: instagram.com/authorizedpod  Follow us on letterboxd:  letterboxd.com/AOverbye/   letterboxd.com/hsblechman/   Next on Authorized: Kiel Phegley and Kris Sundet talk Sonic 3

BREAK A DEAL. SPIN THE WHEEL. First John Cribbs spun the wheel. Then, he got to pick a book to cover. This week on Authorized, we're discussing Joan D. Vinge's Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome. It's all the pizzazz and razzmatazz of a Vinge novel with all the post-apocalyptic mayhem of Max Rockatanksy. If you don't like this episode, maybe you don't like Authorized! Subscribe to our Patreon!: patreon.com/authorizedpod  Follow us on Twitter: Twitter.com/authorizedpod  Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/authorizedpod.bsky.social  Instagram: instagram.com/authorizedpod  Follow us on letterboxd:  letterboxd.com/AOverbye/   letterboxd.com/hsblechman/   Next on Authorized: Kiel Phegley and Kris Sundet talk Sonic 3

Kan analoge synthesizere og klassisk musikk gå hånd i hånd? Fiolinist Sara Övinge har i hvert fall vunnet Spellemann for denne komboen. Philip Glass og Kjetil Bjerkestrand står på menyen på Övinge sitt debutalbum “Patentia”. Sara forteller om å ikke passe inn i den klassiske verdenen og hennes brennende hjerte for en mindre stiv formidling av sjangeren. Allerede som 20-åring var hun den yngste diplomstudenten ved Musikkhøgskolen. Fra 2014 til 2016 var hun andre konsertmester ved Operaen og kåret til Dagsavisens “30under30”. Hun spiller med de største popstjernene den ene dagen, og lager samplebasert samtidsmusikk den neste.  Av og med Einar Stray for Kontekst.

Müller, Tobi www.deutschlandfunkkultur.de, Rang 1

In today's episode, Noah Smith and Brad DeLong tackle pressing topics such as the potential for a 'China Shock 2', the effectiveness of missile defense systems, and the shifting role of economists since the Great Recession. They also explore the nuances of economic theory, policy implementation, and real-world outcomes, particularly in a fast-paced information age.  --

Reiber, Bastian www.deutschlandfunkkultur.de, Rang 1

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: How to hire somebody better than yourself, published by lukehmiles on August 29, 2024 on LessWrong. TLDR: Select candidates heterogeneously, then give them all a very hard test, only continue with candidates that do very well (accept that you lose some good ones), and only then judge on interviews/whatever. I'm no expert but I've made some recommendations that turned out pretty well -- maybe like 5 ever. This post would probably be better if I waited 10 years to write it. Nonetheless, I think my method is far better than what most orgs/corps do. If you have had mad hiring success (judging by what your org accomplished) then please comment! Half-remembered versions of Paul Graham's taste thing and Yudkowsky's Vinge's Law have lead some folks to think that judging talent above your own is extremely difficult. I do not think so. Prereqs: It's the kind of position where someone super good at it can generate a ton of value - eg sales/outreach, coding, actual engineering, research, management, ops, ... Lots of candidates are available and you expect at least some of them are super good at the job. You have at least a month to look. It's possible for someone to demonstrate extreme competence at this type of job in a day or two. Your org is trying to do a thing - rather than be a thing. You want to succeed at that thing - ie you don't have some other secret goal. Your goal with hiring people is to do that thing better/faster - ie you don't need more friends or a prestige bump. Your work situation does not demand that you look stand-out competent - ie you don't unemploy yourself if you succeed in hiring well. You probably don't meet the prereqs. You are probably in it for the journey more than the destination; your life doesn't improve if org goals are achieved; your raises depend on you not out-hiring yourself; etc. Don't feel bad - it is totally ok to be an ordinary social creature! Being a goal psycho often sucks in every way except all the accomplished goals. If you do meet the prereqs, then good news, hiring is almost easy. You just need to find people who are good at doing exactly what you need done. Here's the method: Do look at performance (measure it yourself) Accept noise Don't look at anything else (yet) Except that they work hard Do look at performance Measure it yourself. Make up a test task. You need something that people can take without quitting their jobs or much feedback from you; you and the candidate should not become friends during the test; a timed 8-hour task is a reasonable starting point. Most importantly, you must be able to quickly and easily distinguish good results from very good results. The harder the task, the easier it is to judge the success of top attempts. If you yourself cannot complete the task at all, then congratulations, you now have a method to judge talent far above your own. Take that, folk Vinge's law. Important! Make the task something where success really does tell you they'll do the job well. Not a proxy IQ test or leetcode. The correlation is simply not high enough. Many people think they just need to hire someone generally smart and capable. I disagree, unless your org is very large or nebulous. This task must also not be incredibly lame or humiliating, or you will only end up hiring people lacking a spine. (Common problem.) Don't filter out the spines. It can be hard to think of a good test task but it is well worth all the signal you will get. Say you are hiring someone to arrange all your offices. Have applicants come arrange a couple offices and see if people like it. Pretty simple. Say you are hiring someone to build a house. Have contractors build a shed in one day. Ten sheds only cost like 5% of what a house costs, but bad builders will double your costs and timeline. Pay people as much as you can for their time and the...

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: How to hire somebody better than yourself, published by lukehmiles on August 29, 2024 on LessWrong. TLDR: Select candidates heterogeneously, then give them all a very hard test, only continue with candidates that do very well (accept that you lose some good ones), and only then judge on interviews/whatever. I'm no expert but I've made some recommendations that turned out pretty well -- maybe like 5 ever. This post would probably be better if I waited 10 years to write it. Nonetheless, I think my method is far better than what most orgs/corps do. If you have had mad hiring success (judging by what your org accomplished) then please comment! Half-remembered versions of Paul Graham's taste thing and Yudkowsky's Vinge's Law have lead some folks to think that judging talent above your own is extremely difficult. I do not think so. Prereqs: It's the kind of position where someone super good at it can generate a ton of value - eg sales/outreach, coding, actual engineering, research, management, ops, ... Lots of candidates are available and you expect at least some of them are super good at the job. You have at least a month to look. It's possible for someone to demonstrate extreme competence at this type of job in a day or two. Your org is trying to do a thing - rather than be a thing. You want to succeed at that thing - ie you don't have some other secret goal. Your goal with hiring people is to do that thing better/faster - ie you don't need more friends or a prestige bump. Your work situation does not demand that you look stand-out competent - ie you don't unemploy yourself if you succeed in hiring well. You probably don't meet the prereqs. You are probably in it for the journey more than the destination; your life doesn't improve if org goals are achieved; your raises depend on you not out-hiring yourself; etc. Don't feel bad - it is totally ok to be an ordinary social creature! Being a goal psycho often sucks in every way except all the accomplished goals. If you do meet the prereqs, then good news, hiring is almost easy. You just need to find people who are good at doing exactly what you need done. Here's the method: Do look at performance (measure it yourself) Accept noise Don't look at anything else (yet) Except that they work hard Do look at performance Measure it yourself. Make up a test task. You need something that people can take without quitting their jobs or much feedback from you; you and the candidate should not become friends during the test; a timed 8-hour task is a reasonable starting point. Most importantly, you must be able to quickly and easily distinguish good results from very good results. The harder the task, the easier it is to judge the success of top attempts. If you yourself cannot complete the task at all, then congratulations, you now have a method to judge talent far above your own. Take that, folk Vinge's law. Important! Make the task something where success really does tell you they'll do the job well. Not a proxy IQ test or leetcode. The correlation is simply not high enough. Many people think they just need to hire someone generally smart and capable. I disagree, unless your org is very large or nebulous. This task must also not be incredibly lame or humiliating, or you will only end up hiring people lacking a spine. (Common problem.) Don't filter out the spines. It can be hard to think of a good test task but it is well worth all the signal you will get. Say you are hiring someone to arrange all your offices. Have applicants come arrange a couple offices and see if people like it. Pretty simple. Say you are hiring someone to build a house. Have contractors build a shed in one day. Ten sheds only cost like 5% of what a house costs, but bad builders will double your costs and timeline. Pay people as much as you can for their time and the...

Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast We, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; Aspirationally Bi-Weekly (Meaning Every Other Week); Aspirationally an hour...Key Insights:* Brad DeLong says: You say economics and economists in decline—I see bad economists in decline.* Brad DeLong says: You see missile defense as remarkably effective—I see it as marginally effective, at best.* Brad DeLong says: You say China Shock II—I say China Shock I required the GWB administration as witting and unwitting co-conspirator.* Noah Smith says: These are self-refuting prophecies: my defense of missile defense was to say that it can be remarkably effective in a few possible instances, but those plausible ones for the next two decades; my title “the decade of the second China shock” and my subhead “brace yourselves” were intended to spur action to keep there from being a second China shock.* Noah Smith says: Economists advising badly had a lot of influence in 2008 and after, and still have a substantial amount today—so the total influence of economists has decreased since 2008, and this is not necessarily a bad thing.* The only real way to get nuance is to write a whole book and then have people deeply engage with it, which requires that they be on a trans-oceanic flight with dodgy Wi-Fi, and be otherwise bored.* The internet makes us less nuanced than we should be.* &, as always, HEXAPODIA!References:* Smith, Noah. 2024. “Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense”. Noahpinion. April 15. . * Smith, Noah. 2024. “Twilight of the economists?” Noahpinion. April 12. .* Smith, Noah. 2024. “The decade of the Second China Shock”. March 23. .&* Vinge, Vernor. 1999. A Deepness in the Sky. New York: Tor Books. . Get full access to Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality at braddelong.substack.com/subscribe

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Sci-Fi books micro-reviews, published by Yair Halberstadt on June 24, 2024 on LessWrong. I've recently been reading a lot of science fiction. Most won't be original to fans of the genre, but some people might be looking for suggestions, so in lieu of full blown reviews here's super brief ratings on all of them. I might keep this updated over time, if so new books will go to the top. A deepness in the sky (Verner Vinge) scifiosity: 10/10 readability: 8/10 recommended: 10/10 A deepness in the sky excels in its depiction of a spacefaring civilisation using no technologies we know to be impossible, a truly alien civilisation, and it's brilliant treatment of translation and culture. A fire upon the deep (Verner Vinge) scifiosity: 8/10 readability: 9/10 recommended: 9/10 In a fire upon the deep, Vinge allows impossible technologies and essentially goes for a slightly more fantasy theme. But his depiction of alien civilisation remains unsurpassed. Across Realtime (Verner Vinge) scifiosity: 8/10 readability: 8/10 recommended: 5/10 This collection of two books imagines a single exotic technology, and explores how it could be used, whilst building a classic thriller into the plot. It's fine enough, but just doesn't have the same depth or insight as his other works. Children of Time (Adrian Tchaikovsky) scifiosity: 7/10 readability: 5/10 recommended: 5/10 Children of Time was recommended as the sort of thing you'd like if you enjoyed a deepness in the sky. Personally I found it a bit silly - I think because Tchaikovsky had some plot points he wanted to get to and was making up justifications for them, rather than deeply thinking about the consequences of his various assumptions. The Martian (Andy Weir) scifiosity: 10/10 readability: 8/10 recommended: 9/10 This is hard sci-fi on steroids. Using only known or in development technologies, how could an astranaut survive stranded on Mars. It's an enjoyable read, and you'll learn a lot about science, but the characters sometimes feel one dimensional. Project Hail Mary (Andy Weir) scifiosity: 8/10 readability: 8/10 recommended: 7/10 This is more speculative sci-fi than the martian, but still contains plenty of hard science[1]. It focuses more on plot, but that's not really Weir's forte and the sciencey bits suffer as a result. Still enjoyable though. Seveneves (Neil Stephenson) scifiosity: 8/10 readability: 8/10 recommended: 7/10 This is really two books. The first is a hard sci-fi, how do we build things rapidly in space using current technology. The second half is... kinda wierd, but still enjoyable. Stephenson is less good at the science than Weir, but better at plot, if a bit idiosyncratic[2]. Cryptonomicon (Neil Stephenson) scifiosity: 9/10 readability: 7/10 recommended: 8/10 I was recommended this as a book that would incidentally teach you a lot about cryptography. That must have been targeted to complete newbies because I didn't learn much I didn't know already. Still it was enjoyable, if somewhat weird. The Three-Body Problem (Cixin Liu) scifiosity: 4/10 readability: 6/10 recommended: 5/10 This started off really well, but then got steadily sillier as the book progressed. I loved the depictions of decent into madness, the surrealism of the 3 body game, and the glimpses into Chinese culture as seen by Chinese. But the attempts to science-bullshit explanations at the end kind of ruined it for me. Machineries of Empire (Yoon Ha Lee) scifiosity: 4/10 readability: 8/10 recommended: 8/10 I would classify this more as science fantasy than fiction, since the calendrical mechanics seem to be made up according to whatever the plot needs, but it's a brilliantly written series I thoroughly enjoyed, if a bit difficult to follow at times. Stories of Your Life + Exhalation (Ted Chiang) scifiosity: 10/10 readability: 10/10 recommended: 10/10...

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Sci-Fi books micro-reviews, published by Yair Halberstadt on June 24, 2024 on LessWrong. I've recently been reading a lot of science fiction. Most won't be original to fans of the genre, but some people might be looking for suggestions, so in lieu of full blown reviews here's super brief ratings on all of them. I might keep this updated over time, if so new books will go to the top. A deepness in the sky (Verner Vinge) scifiosity: 10/10 readability: 8/10 recommended: 10/10 A deepness in the sky excels in its depiction of a spacefaring civilisation using no technologies we know to be impossible, a truly alien civilisation, and it's brilliant treatment of translation and culture. A fire upon the deep (Verner Vinge) scifiosity: 8/10 readability: 9/10 recommended: 9/10 In a fire upon the deep, Vinge allows impossible technologies and essentially goes for a slightly more fantasy theme. But his depiction of alien civilisation remains unsurpassed. Across Realtime (Verner Vinge) scifiosity: 8/10 readability: 8/10 recommended: 5/10 This collection of two books imagines a single exotic technology, and explores how it could be used, whilst building a classic thriller into the plot. It's fine enough, but just doesn't have the same depth or insight as his other works. Children of Time (Adrian Tchaikovsky) scifiosity: 7/10 readability: 5/10 recommended: 5/10 Children of Time was recommended as the sort of thing you'd like if you enjoyed a deepness in the sky. Personally I found it a bit silly - I think because Tchaikovsky had some plot points he wanted to get to and was making up justifications for them, rather than deeply thinking about the consequences of his various assumptions. The Martian (Andy Weir) scifiosity: 10/10 readability: 8/10 recommended: 9/10 This is hard sci-fi on steroids. Using only known or in development technologies, how could an astranaut survive stranded on Mars. It's an enjoyable read, and you'll learn a lot about science, but the characters sometimes feel one dimensional. Project Hail Mary (Andy Weir) scifiosity: 8/10 readability: 8/10 recommended: 7/10 This is more speculative sci-fi than the martian, but still contains plenty of hard science[1]. It focuses more on plot, but that's not really Weir's forte and the sciencey bits suffer as a result. Still enjoyable though. Seveneves (Neil Stephenson) scifiosity: 8/10 readability: 8/10 recommended: 7/10 This is really two books. The first is a hard sci-fi, how do we build things rapidly in space using current technology. The second half is... kinda wierd, but still enjoyable. Stephenson is less good at the science than Weir, but better at plot, if a bit idiosyncratic[2]. Cryptonomicon (Neil Stephenson) scifiosity: 9/10 readability: 7/10 recommended: 8/10 I was recommended this as a book that would incidentally teach you a lot about cryptography. That must have been targeted to complete newbies because I didn't learn much I didn't know already. Still it was enjoyable, if somewhat weird. The Three-Body Problem (Cixin Liu) scifiosity: 4/10 readability: 6/10 recommended: 5/10 This started off really well, but then got steadily sillier as the book progressed. I loved the depictions of decent into madness, the surrealism of the 3 body game, and the glimpses into Chinese culture as seen by Chinese. But the attempts to science-bullshit explanations at the end kind of ruined it for me. Machineries of Empire (Yoon Ha Lee) scifiosity: 4/10 readability: 8/10 recommended: 8/10 I would classify this more as science fantasy than fiction, since the calendrical mechanics seem to be made up according to whatever the plot needs, but it's a brilliantly written series I thoroughly enjoyed, if a bit difficult to follow at times. Stories of Your Life + Exhalation (Ted Chiang) scifiosity: 10/10 readability: 10/10 recommended: 10/10...

Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast We, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; Aspirationally Bi-Weekly (Meaning Every Other Week); Aspirationally an hour...Key Insights:* A number of years ago, Brad DeLong said that it was time to “pass the baton” to “The Left”. How's that working out for us? #actually, he had said that we had passed the baton—that the absence since January 21, 2009 (or possibly January 21, 1993) of Republican negotiating partners meant that sensible centrism produced nothing—that Barack Obama had proposed John McCain's climate policy, Mitt Romney's health care policy, George H.W. Bush's entitlement-and-budget policy, Ronald Reagan's tax policy, and Gerald Ford's foreign policy, and had gotten precisely zero Republican votes for any of those. Therefore the only choice we had was to pass the baton to the Left in the hopes that they could energize the base and the disaffected to win majorities, and then offer strong support where there policies were better than the status quo.* But my major initial take was that the major task was to resurrect a sensible center-right, in which I wished the Niskanen Center good luck, but was not optimistic.* But everyone heard “Brad DeLong says neoliberals should ‘bend the knee'” to THE LEFT…* That is interesting…* Should neoliberals bend the knee?* How has the left been doing with its baton? Not well at all, for anyone who defines “THE LEFT” to consist of former Bernie staffers who regard Elizabeth Warren as a neoliberal sellout.* It has, once again, never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity. * But the conditions that required passing the baton to the left—High Mitch McConnellism, Republican unity saying “NO!” to everything by every Republican to make the Black president look like a weak failure—no longer hold.* And the principal adversaries to good governance and a bright American future are reactionary theocrats, neofascist grifters, and true-believer right-neoliberals to the right and cost-disease socialists to the left.* But in the middle, made up of ex-left-neoliberals and nearly all other right-thinking Americans, are we supply-side progressives.* Instead, there is a governing coalition, in the Senate, composed of 70 senators, 50 Democrats and 20 Republicans, from Bernie Sanders through J.D. Vance—a supply-side progressive or supply-side Americanist coalition.* It is therefore time to snatch the baton back, and give it to the supply-side progressivist policy-politics core, and then grab as many people to run alongside that core in the race as we possibly can.* The Niskanen Center cannot be at the heart of the supply-side progressivist agenda because they are incrementalists and critics by nature.* The principal business of “Leftist” activists over the past five years really has been and continues to be to try to grease the skids for the return of neofascism—just as the principal business of Ralph Nader and Naderites in 2000 was to grease the skids for upper-class tax cuts, catastrophic financial deregulation, and forever wars.* &, as always, HEXAPODIA!References:* Beauchamp, Zack. 2019. "A Clinton-Era Centrist Democrat Explains Why It's Time to Give Democratic Socialists a Chance." Vox. March 4, 2019. .* Black, Bill. 2019. "Brad DeLong's Stunning Concession: Neoliberals Should Pass the Baton & Let the Left Lead." Naked Capitalism. March 5. .* DeLong, J. Bradford. 2019. “David Walsh went to the Niskanen Center conference. He got hives…” Twitter. February 25. .* DeLong, J. Bradford. 2019. "Carville & Hunt: Two Old White Guys Podcast." Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality. March 11. .* DeLong, J. Bradford. 2019. "I Said 'Pass the Baton' to Those Further Left Than I, Not 'Bend the Knee.'" Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality. March 27. .* Elmaazi, Mohamed. 2019. "Famous Neoliberal Economist Says Centrism Has Failed." The Canary. March 15, 2019. .* O'Reilly, Timothy. 2019. "This Interview with Brad DeLong is Very Compelling." LinkedIn. .* Douthat, Ross. 2019. "What's Left of the Center-Left?" New York Times. March 5. .* Drum, Kevin. 2019. "A Neoliberal Says It's Time for Neoliberals to Pack It In." Mother Jones. March 5. .* Hundt, Reed, Brad DeLong, & Joshua Cohen. 2019."Neoliberalism and Its Discontents." Commonwealth Club. March 5. .* Konczal, Mike. 2019. "The Failures of Neoliberalism Are Bigger Than Politics." Roosevelt Institute. March 5. .&* Vinge, Vernor. 1999. A Deepness in the Sky. New York: Tor Books. . Get full access to Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality at braddelong.substack.com/subscribe

Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast We, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; Aspirationally Bi-Weekly (Meaning Every Other Week); Aspirationally an hour...Key Insights:* Someone is wrong on the internet! Specifically Brad… He needs to shape up and scrub his brain… * Back in the 2000s, Brad argued that the U.S. should over the next few generations try to pass the baton of world leadership to a prosperous, democratic, liberal China…* Back in the 2000s, Noah thought that Brad was wrong—he looked at the Chinese Communist Party, and he thought: communist parties do not do “coëxistence”…* Noah understands people with a limitless authoritarian desire for power—people like Trump, Xi, Putin, and in the reverse Abe—and the systems that nurture and promote them…* Why did Brad go wrong? Excessive reliance in the deep structures of his brain on the now 60-year-old Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy: Lord and Peasant in the Making of the Modern World.* Why did Brad go wrong? A failure to understand Lenin's party of a new type as a bureaucratic-cultural organization…* Suggestions for what Brad DeLong should earn during his forthcoming stint in the reëducation camp are welcome…* &, as always, Hexapodia…References:* Bear, Greg. 1985. Blood Music. New York: Arbor House. .* Brown, Kerry. 2022. Xi: A Study in Power. London: Icon Books..* Cai, Xia. 2022. "The Weakness of Xi Jinping: How Hubris and Paranoia Threaten China's Future." Foreign Affairs. September/October. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/xi-jinping-china-weakness-hubris-paranoia-threaten-future.* DeLong, J. Bradford. 2019. "What to Do About China?" Project Syndicate, June 5. .* DeLong, J. Bradford. 2019. "America's Superpower Panic". Project Syndicate, August 14. .* DeLong, J. Bradford. 2023. "Theses on China, the US, Political-Economic Systems, Global Value Chains, & the Relationship". Grasping Reality. Accessed June 19. .* Lampton, David M. 2019. Following the Leader: Ruling China, from Deng Xiaoping to Xi Jinping. Berkeley: University of California Press..* Moore, Barrington, Jr. 1966. Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy: Lord & Peasant in the Making of the Modern World. Boston: Beacon Press. .* Pronin, Ivan, & Mikhail Stepichev. 1969. Leninist Standards of Party Life. Moscow: Progress Publishers. .* Sandbu, Martin. 2022. “Brad DeLong: ‘The US is now an anti-globalisation outlier'”. Financial Times. November 23. .* Sasaki, Norihiko. 2023. "Functions and Significance of the Central Leading Group for Comprehensively Deepening Reforms and the Central Comprehensively Deepening Reforms Commission." Chinese Journal of Political Science 28 (3): 1-15. Accessed May 14, 2024. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/24761028.2023.2185394.* Shambaugh, David, ed. 2020. China and the World. New York: Oxford University Press. .&* Vinge, Vernor. 1999. A Deepness in the Sky. New York: Tor Books. . Get full access to Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality at braddelong.substack.com/subscribe

Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast We, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; Aspirationally Bi-Weekly (Meaning Every Other Week); Aspirationally an hour... Key Insights:* Vernor Vinge was one of the GOAT scifi authors—and he is also one of the most underrated…* That a squishy social-democratic leftie like Brad DeLong can derive so much insight and pleasure from the work of a hard-right libertarian like Vernor Vinge—for whom the New Deal Order is very close to being the Big Bad, and who sees FDR as a cousin of Sauron—creates great hope that there is a deeper layer of thought to which we all can contribute. The fact that Brad DeLong and Vernor Vinge get excited in similar ways is a universal force around which we can unite, and add to them H.G. Wells and Jules Verne…* The five things written by Vernor Vinge that Brad and Noah find most interesting are: * “The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era”,* A Fire Upon the Deep,* A Deepness in the Sky, * “True Names”, & * Rainbows End…* We do not buy the Supermind Singularity: The world is not a game of chess in which the entity that can think 40 moves ahead will always easily trounce the entity that can only think 10 moves ahead, for time and chance happeneth to us all…* We do not buy the Supermind Singularity: Almost all human intelligence is not in individual brains, but is in the network. We are very smart as an anthology intelligence. Whatever true A.I.s we create will be much smarter when they are tied into the network as useful and cooperative parts of it—rather than sinister gods out on their own plotting plots…* We do not buy the Supermind Singularity: mind and technology amplification is as likely to be logistic as exponential or super-exponential…* The ultimate innovation in a society of abundance is the ability to control human personality and desire—and now we are back to the Buddha, and to Zeno, Kleanthes, Khrisippus, and Marcus Aurelius…* With the unfortunate asterisk that mind-hacking via messages and chemicals mean that such an ultimate innovation can be used for evil as well as good…* Addiction effects from gambling are not, in fact, a good analogy for destructive effects of social media as a malevolent attention-hacker…* Cyberspace is not what William Gibson and Neil Stephenson predicted.But it rhymed. And mechanized warfare was not what H.G. Wells predicted.But it rhymed. A lot of the stuff about AI that we see in science fiction will rhyme with whatever things are going to happen…* The Blight of A Fire Upon the Deep is a not-unreasonable metaphor for social media as propaganda intensifier…* We want the future of the Whole Earth Catalog and the early Wired, not of crypto grifts and ad-supported social media platforms…* Vernor Vinge's ideas will be remembered—if only as important pieces of a historical discussion about why the Superintelligence Singularity road was not (or was) taken—as long as the Thrones of the Valar endure…* Noah Smith continues to spend too much time picking fights on Twitter…* &, as always, Hexapodia…References:* DeLong, J. Bradford. 2022. Slouching Towards Utopia: The Economic History of the 20th Century. New York: Basic Books. .* Bursztyn, Leonardo, Benjamin Handel, Rafael Jiménez-Durán, & Christopher Roth. 2023. “When Product Markets Become Collective Traps: The Case of Social Media”. Becker-Friedman Institute. October 12. .* Patel, Nilay, Alex Cranz, & David Pierce. 2024. “Rabbit, Humane, & the iPad”. Vergecast. May 3. .* MacIntyre, Alasdair. 1966. A Short History of Ethics: : A History of Moral Philosophy from the Homeric Age to the Twentieth Century. New York: Macmillan. .* Ober, Josiah. 2008. Democracy & Knowledge: Innovation & Learning in Classical Athens. Princeton: Princeton University Press. .* Petpuls. 2024. “The World's First Dog Emotion Translator”. Accessed May 7, 2024. .* Rao, Venkatesh. 2022. “Beyond Hyperanthropomorphism”. Ribbonfarm Studio. Auguts 21. .* Taintor, Joseph. 1990. The Collapse of Complex Societies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. .* Vinge, Vernor. 1984. “True Names”. True Names & Other Dangers. New York: Bluejay Books. .* Vinge, Vernor. 1992. A Fire Upon the Deep. New York: Tor Books. .* Vinge, Vernor. 1993. "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era". .* Vinge, Vernor. 1999. A Deepness in the Sky. New York: Tor Books. .* Vinge, Vernor. 2006. Rainbows End. New York: Tor Books. .* Williams, Walter Jon. 1992. Aristoi. New York: Tor Books. * Wikipedia. “Vernor Vinge”. Accessed May 7, 2024. . Get full access to Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality at braddelong.substack.com/subscribe

I denne episoden av Scoochpodden prater vi om Øysteins inntrykk fra fritidsbil-konferansen, og vi snakker om hva bil-entusiasme er og om du kan lures av en bil til å bry deg. Hvor mange er det egentlig som bryr seg? Saab-losen fortsetter med uklare modellbetegnelser som glir over i Kit cars og Koenigsegg-DNA. Vi minnes den legendariske Knut Andersen som nylig gikk bort og vi snakker om Kameis tidlige dager. Og til slutt blir det bilavdukning av de sjeldne på Oslo's hippe brygger.Følg oss på facebook: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100051375947801Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/scoochpod/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Som Judith Wolst brukar säga, "plötsligt händer det" – och just nu är det AI som står för de oväntade händelserna. Ta exempelvis Vinge, som har revolutionerat sitt arbete genom att investera i egen AI. Likaså OpenAI, som med sin lansering av en 'App Store' för ChatGPT-ekosystemet, öppnar för oanade möjligheter. Det här påminner om hur Apples App Store förändrade spelplanen för 15 år sedan, genom att göra det enklare för utvecklare att nå ut och för användare att tillgå AI-applikationer.  Men borde vi samtidigt vara oroliga för att utvecklingen går för fort när personligheter som Elon Musk, Wozniak och Forskaren Max Tegmark går ut i ett öppen brev och ber om att pausa AI-utvecklingen. Fram tills idag har AI-team suttit i sin egna värld och utvecklat utan krav på varken lönsamhet eller etiska regleringar Denna trend bär frågor med sig. När AI:s superkraft möjliggör fler verktyg, hur påverkas då retail- och fastighetsbranschen? Vilka riktlinjer och ansvarsområden behövs för att hantera denna blixtsnabba utveckling? Hänger vi med, eller riskerar vi att bli åskådare till vår egen framtid?  Idag har vi nöjet att välkomna chefsekonomen och grundaren av det etiska AI-bolaget Anch.AI, Anna Felländer, för att ge oss insikter om framtiden. Trevlig lyssning!

With the sad news of Vernor Vinge’s recent passing, I decided (at Olav’s prompting) to host a short-notice discussion panel about Vinge’s work. This podcast has previously covered his three Hugo-winning novels, but we go a bit deeper here, giving some other recommendations for Vinge reading. I’m mostly just here to facilitate, and more than … Continue reading "Vernor Vinge Tribute episode"

Robots gone wild, UDP, GoFetch, Domain Controllers, Pwn2Own, Verner Vinge, Reddit, Aaran Leyland, and More on this edition of the Security Weekly News. Visit https://www.securityweekly.com/swn for all the latest episodes! Show Notes: https://securityweekly.com/swn-371

Science fiction legend Vernor Vinge inspired the title of this podcast - and his influence extends far beyond fiction. His novella "True Names" gave readers a first taste of the metaverse, and in a 1993 talk for NASA, Vinge described a 'technological singularity' - a time when computers get so good so fast that they 'run away' from human control. It's a scenario that haunts every big company working in AI today, possibly an element in the behind-the-scenes dynamic that got Sam Altman (briefly) fired as CEO of ChatGPT creator OpenAI in November 2023. This 2019 interview - one of his last, before his passing on 21 March 2024 - explores Vinge's thinking about 'The Singularity' - and asks what happens when a goldfish tries to talk to a human...Over a billion seconds ago, sci-fi legend Vernor Vinge conceived of a “Technological Singularity”, when our machines outthink us. Should we worry? Be sure to read Vernor's 1993 paper, “The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era” – it's linked here. A rerun of an earlier episode of The Next Billion Seconds.  For more information about this podcast and The Next Billion Seconds, please visit https://nextbillionseconds.com. The Next Billion Seconds with Mark Pesce is produced by Ampel - https://ampel.com.au.  Chief Audio Officer: Josh ButtEdited by: Isabel VanhakartanoAudio Mixed by: Carter QuinnSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Robots gone wild, UDP, GoFetch, Domain Controllers, Pwn2Own, Verner Vinge, Reddit, Aaran Leyland, and More on this edition of the Security Weekly News. Show Notes: https://securityweekly.com/swn-371

Robots gone wild, UDP, GoFetch, Domain Controllers, Pwn2Own, Verner Vinge, Reddit, Aaran Leyland, and More on this edition of the Security Weekly News. Visit https://www.securityweekly.com/swn for all the latest episodes! Show Notes: https://securityweekly.com/swn-371

Robots gone wild, UDP, GoFetch, Domain Controllers, Pwn2Own, Verner Vinge, Reddit, Aaran Leyland, and More on this edition of the Security Weekly News. Show Notes: https://securityweekly.com/swn-371

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Vernor Vinge, who coined the term "Technological Singularity", dies at 79, published by Kaj Sotala on March 21, 2024 on LessWrong. On Wednesday, author David Brin announced that Vernor Vinge, sci-fi author, former professor, and father of the technological singularity concept, died from Parkinson's disease at age 79 on March 20, 2024, in La Jolla, California. The announcement came in a Facebook tribute where Brin wrote about Vinge's deep love for science and writing. [...] As a sci-fi author, Vinge won Hugo Awards for his novels A Fire Upon the Deep (1993), A Deepness in the Sky (2000), and Rainbows End (2007). He also won Hugos for novellas Fast Times at Fairmont High (2002) and The Cookie Monster (2004). As Mike Glyer's File 770 blog notes, Vinge's novella True Names (1981) is frequency cited as the first presentation of an in-depth look at the concept of "cyberspace." Vinge first coined the term "singularity" as related to technology in 1983, borrowed from the concept of a singularity in spacetime in physics. When discussing the creation of intelligences far greater than our own in an 1983 op-ed in OMNI magazine, Vinge wrote, "When this happens, human history will have reached a kind of singularity, an intellectual transition as impenetrable as the knotted space-time at the center of a black hole, and the world will pass far beyond our understanding." In 1993, he expanded on the idea in an essay titled The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era. The singularity concept postulates that AI will soon become superintelligent, far surpassing humans in capability and bringing the human-dominated era to a close. While the concept of a tech singularity sometimes inspires negativity and fear, Vinge remained optimistic about humanity's technological future, as Brin notes in his tribute: "Accused by some of a grievous sin - that of 'optimism' - Vernor gave us peerless legends that often depicted human success at overcoming problems... those right in front of us... while posing new ones! New dilemmas that may lie just ahead of our myopic gaze. He would often ask: 'What if we succeed? Do you think that will be the end of it?'" Vinge's concept heavily influenced futurist Ray Kurzweil, who has written about the singularity several times at length in books such as The Singularity Is Near in 2005. In a 2005 interview with the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology website, Kurzweil said, "Vernor Vinge has had some really key insights into the singularity very early on. There were others, such as John Von Neuman, who talked about a singular event occurring, because he had the idea of technological acceleration and singularity half a century ago. But it was simply a casual comment, and Vinge worked out some of the key ideas." Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Vernor Vinge, who coined the term "Technological Singularity", dies at 79, published by Kaj Sotala on March 21, 2024 on LessWrong. On Wednesday, author David Brin announced that Vernor Vinge, sci-fi author, former professor, and father of the technological singularity concept, died from Parkinson's disease at age 79 on March 20, 2024, in La Jolla, California. The announcement came in a Facebook tribute where Brin wrote about Vinge's deep love for science and writing. [...] As a sci-fi author, Vinge won Hugo Awards for his novels A Fire Upon the Deep (1993), A Deepness in the Sky (2000), and Rainbows End (2007). He also won Hugos for novellas Fast Times at Fairmont High (2002) and The Cookie Monster (2004). As Mike Glyer's File 770 blog notes, Vinge's novella True Names (1981) is frequency cited as the first presentation of an in-depth look at the concept of "cyberspace." Vinge first coined the term "singularity" as related to technology in 1983, borrowed from the concept of a singularity in spacetime in physics. When discussing the creation of intelligences far greater than our own in an 1983 op-ed in OMNI magazine, Vinge wrote, "When this happens, human history will have reached a kind of singularity, an intellectual transition as impenetrable as the knotted space-time at the center of a black hole, and the world will pass far beyond our understanding." In 1993, he expanded on the idea in an essay titled The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era. The singularity concept postulates that AI will soon become superintelligent, far surpassing humans in capability and bringing the human-dominated era to a close. While the concept of a tech singularity sometimes inspires negativity and fear, Vinge remained optimistic about humanity's technological future, as Brin notes in his tribute: "Accused by some of a grievous sin - that of 'optimism' - Vernor gave us peerless legends that often depicted human success at overcoming problems... those right in front of us... while posing new ones! New dilemmas that may lie just ahead of our myopic gaze. He would often ask: 'What if we succeed? Do you think that will be the end of it?'" Vinge's concept heavily influenced futurist Ray Kurzweil, who has written about the singularity several times at length in books such as The Singularity Is Near in 2005. In a 2005 interview with the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology website, Kurzweil said, "Vernor Vinge has had some really key insights into the singularity very early on. There were others, such as John Von Neuman, who talked about a singular event occurring, because he had the idea of technological acceleration and singularity half a century ago. But it was simply a casual comment, and Vinge worked out some of the key ideas." Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org

In which Noah Smith & Brad DeLong wish Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson had written a very different book than their "Power & Progress" is...Key Insights:* Acemoglu & Johnson should have written a very different book—one about how some technologies complement and others substitute for labor, and it is very important to maximize the first.* Neither Noah Smith nor Brad DeLong is at all comfortable with “power” as a category in economics other than as the ability to credibly threaten to commit violence or theft.* Acemoglu & Robinson's Why Nations Fail is a truly great book. Power & Progress is not.* We should not confuse James Robinson with Simon Johnson* Billionaires running oligopolistic tech firms are not trustworthy stewards of the future of our economy.* The IBM 701 Defense Calculator of 1953 is rather cool. * The lurkers agree with Noah Smith in the DMs.* The power loom caused technological unemployment because the rest of the value chain—cotton growing, spinning, and garment-making—was rigid, hence the elasticity of demand for the transformation thread → cloth was low.* We need more examples of bad technologies than the cotton gin and the Roman Empire.References: * Acemoglu, Daron, & Simon Johnson. 2023. Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity. New York; Hachette Book Group. * Acemoglu, Daron, & James A. Robinson. 2012. Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty. New York: Crown Publishers. * Besi. 2023. “Join us Tues. Oct. 10 at 4pm Pacific for a talk by @MITSloan's Simon Johnson…” Twitter. October 9. .* DeLong, J. Bradford. 2024. “What To Do About the Dependence of the Form Progress Takes on Power?: Quick Takes on Acemoglu & Johnson's "Power & Progress”. Grasping Reality. February 29.* DeLong, J. Bradford; & Noah Smith. 2023. “We Cannot Tell in Advance Which Technologies Are Labor-Augmenting & Which Are Labor-Replacing”. Hexapodia. XLIX, July 7. * Gruber, Jonathan, & Simon Johnson. 2019. Jump-Starting America: How Breakthrough Science Can Revive Economic Growth and the American Dream.The book is available on the Internet Archive: .* Johnson, Simon, & James Kwak. 2011. 13 Bankers: The Wall Street Takeover and the Next Financial Meltdown. New York: Vintage Books. .* Smith, Noah. 2024. “Book Review: Power & Progress”. Noahpinion. February 21. * Walton, Jo. 1998. “The Lurkers Support Me in Email”. May 16. .+, of course:* Vinge, Vernor. 1992. A Fire Upon the Deep. New York: TOR. . Get full access to Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality at braddelong.substack.com/subscribe

Vi har fått samla Olav Veum og Rasmus Eggen Vinge og de snakker om pre season, lagets forventninger til sesongen, artige historier, Bob og mye mye mer! Nå er det snart seriestart! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Producer Confidence & Consumer Confidence (in the Economy), & Our Confidence (in Our Analyses): Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast We, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; Aspirationally Bi-Weekly (Meaning Every Other Week); Aspirationally an hour...Key Insights:* The disjunction between all the economic data having been very good and very strong for the past year and tons of reports and commentary about how people “weren't feeling it” is mostly the result of the fact that things work with lags.* There are other factors: partisan politics, and the insistence of Republicans that they must not only vote but also at least say that they agree with their tribe.* There are other factors: the old journalistic adage that “what bleeds, leads”, exponentiated by the effects of our current short attention-span clickbait culture.* There are other factors: journalists, commentators, and the rest of the shouting class are depressed as their industries collapse around them, and somewhat of their situation leaks through.* There are other factors: while people think they personally are doing well, they do remember stories of others not doing wellm and are concerned.* But mostly it was just that things operate with lags: that was the major source of the “vibecession” gloom-and-doom which was at sharp variance with the actual economic dataflow.* We are not the modelers: we are, rather, the agents in the model.* The metanarrative is always harder than the narrative: trying to answer “why don't people say they think the economy is good?” is very hard to answer in a non-stupid way, and most of us are much better off just saying: “hey, guys, the economy is really good!”* It is good to be long reality—as long as you are not so leveraged that your position gets sold out from under you before the market marks itself to reality,.* Lags gotta lag.* And, finally, hexapodia!References:* Burn-Murdoch, John. 2023. “Should we believe Americans when they say the economy is bad?” Financial Times, December 1 .* Cummings, Ryan, & Neale Mahoney. 2023. “Asymmetric amplification and the consumer sentiment gap”. Briefing Book, November 13. .* El-Erian, Mohamed. 2024. “A warning shot over the last mile in the inflation battle'. Financial Times, January 15. .* Faroohar, Rana. 2024. “Is Bidenomics dead on arrival? The time is ripe for the administration to rethink its messaging”. Financial Times, December 18. .* Fedor, Lauren, & Colby Smith. 2023, “Will US voters believe they are better off with Biden? Under pressure after a string of damning polls, the US president is resting his hopes for re-election on his personal economic blueprint”. Financial Times, November 6. .* Financial Times Editorial Board. 2024. “Why Biden gets little credit for a strong US economy: The president's team needs to show more energy in addressing voters' concerns”. Financial Times, January 11. .* Ghosh, Bobby. 2022. “Biden's a Better Economic Manager Than You Think:On more than a dozen measures of relative prosperity, he's outperformed the last six of his seven predecessors. On reducing the budget deficit, he has no peers”. Bloomberg, November 8. * Greenberg, Stanley. 2024. “The Political Perils of Democrats' Rose-Colored Glasses: Paul Krugman's (and many Democrats') beliefs about the economy and crime miss the reality that Americans still experience”. American Prospect, February 5. .* Hsu, Joanne. 2024. “Surveys of Consumers: Final Results for January 2024”. February 2. .* Krugman, Paul. 2024. “Is the Vibecession Finally Coming to an End?” New York Times, January 22. .* Lowenkron, Hadriana. 2023. “Biden's Approval Rating Hits New Low on Economic Worries, Poll Shows”. Bloomberg, December 18. ,* Millard, Blake. 2024. “Consumer confidence highest in 2 years, still below pre-pandemic levels”. Sandbox Daily, February 6. .* Omeokwe, Amara, & Chip Cutter. 2024. “Job Gains Picked Up in December, Capping Year of Healthy Hiring”. Wall Street Journal, January 5. .* Rubin, Gabriel. 2024. “What Recession? Growth Ended Up Accelerating in 2023”. Wall Street Journal, January 25. .* Scanlon, Kyla. 2022. “The Vibecession: The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy”. Kyla's Newsletter, June 30. .* Sen, Conor. 2023. “Unhappy American Consumers Will Welcome a Slower Economy”. Bloomberg, November 29. * Scanlon, Kyla. 2023. “It's More than Just Vibes”. Kyla's Newsletter, December 7. .* Torry, Harriet, & Anthony DeBarros. 2023. “Economists in WSJ Survey Still See Recession This Year Despite Easing Inflation”. Wall Street Journal, January 15. .* Winkler, Matthew A. 2023. “The Truth About the Biden Economy: As the president launches his reelection campaign, his biggest challenge may be getting voters to ignore perception and focus on reality”. Bloomberg, April 25. .* Wingrove, Josh. 2024. “Biden Refines Economic Pitch for 2024 in Bet Worst Is Behind Him”. Bloomberg, January 13. .+, of course:* Vinge, Vernor. 1992. A Fire Upon the Deep. New York: TOR. . Get full access to Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality at braddelong.substack.com/subscribe

Rasmus Eggen Vinge var ikke forberedt på OBOS-fotball i 24Treneren Bob BradleyOm interessen fra andre klubberHvorfor spiller Stabæk Eliteserie i 2025?Vinge på vingen! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

En arkivpärla från 1997 där Åke Sandin samtalar med Per-Arne Gövinge (1923-1997) om hans litterära intresse. De pratar om romaner, noveller och veckotidningar på 40-talet. Gövinge hade varit rektor på bl.a. Fornuddens, Bergfotens och Hanvikens skola och var tidigare aktiv i politiken i Tyresö.

& a start-of-the-semester academic-email-addresses-only paid-subscription sale:Key Insights:* Young whippersnappers Oks and Williams are to be commended for being young, and whippersnapperish—but we disagree with them.* Contrary to what Brad thought, the fertility transition in Africa really has resumed.* The problem of how you provide mass employment for people is different than the problem of how you increase your economy's productivity by building knowledge capital, infrastructure, and other forms of human capital. * It is important to keep those straight and distinguished in your mind.* Commodity exporting should be viewed as a distinct development strategy from industrialization, and indeed from everything else. * Sometime during the plague, Brad DeLong really did turn into a grumpy old man yelling at clouds. It's time that he should own that. * People should take another look at the pace of South and Southeast Asian economic development. It is a very different world than it was 25 years ago.* Thus if you are basing your view on memories of or on books written based on memories of how things were 25 years ago, you are going to get it wrong. BIGTIME wrong.* Only the Federal Reserve can get away with saying “it's context dependent”. All the rest of us have to put forward Grand Narratives—false as they all are—if we want to actually be useful.* HexapodiaReferences:* Bongaarts, John. 2020. "Trends in fertility and fertility preferences in sub-Saharan Africa: the roles of education and family planning programs." Genus 76: 32. * Kremer, Michael, Jack Willis, & Yang You. 2021. "Converging to Convergence." National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 29484, November 2021. * Oks, David, & Henry Williams. 2022. "The Long, Slow Death of Global Development." American Affairs 6:4 (November). .* Patel, Dev, Justin Sandefur, & Arvind Subramanian. 2021. "The new era of unconditional convergence." Journal of Development Economics 152. .* Perkins, Dwight. 2021. "Understanding political influences on Southeast Asia's development experience." Fulbright Review of Economics and Policy 1, no. 1: 4-20. .* Rodrik, Dani, & Joseph E. Stiglitz. 2024. "A New Growth Strategy for Developing Nations." .* World Bank. 2023. "South Asia Development Update October 2023: Economic Outlook." .+, of course:* Vinge, Vernor. 1992. A Fire Upon the Deep. New York: TOR. . Get full access to Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality at braddelong.substack.com/subscribe

Key Insights:* Finally, at long last, over the next two generations the tide is likely to be flowing strongly toward near-universal global development...* The fear was that dehyperglobalization would rob poorer countries of their ability to develop the export comparative advantages to support the manufacturing engineering clusters they need for learning by doing, establishing a good educational system, and converging to global North standards of living...* This fear appears to have been very overblown...* Optimism about future income growth and globalization is warranted because India has more people in it than Africa: the Asia Circle from Japan to Pakistan and down to Indonesia and up to Mongolia is and always has been half the human race. And South Asia and Southeast Asia are now in gear...* As long as dealing with global warming does not absorb too many of the resources that could otherwise be devoted to income growth...* This is true even though the great wave of increasing international trade intensity and integration that began in 1945 came to an end in 2008...* Even so, since 2008 there has still been increasing global integration in the flow of ideas and the growing interdependence of value chains...* A substantial part of the post-2008 reversal of globalization was partially due to China onshoring its supply chains—the pre-2008 situation in which China's manufacturing knowledge was vastly behind its manufacturing intensity was highly unstable...* This, however, hinges sufficient state capacity—which is not just the ability to do infrastructure and reorganize your economy, but also have people's stuff not get stolen from them either by local thieves or by government functionaries...* Distributional issues are another potential key blockage—the benefits of technological change flow to the global north, or to a small predatory internal élite, or the market economy's distribution goes spontaneously awry...* But there is the question of how much distribution matters in a rich world where few are starving—matters for social power, yes, and for whatever happinesses flow from that, but does distribution matter otherwise?* Countries in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America may be stubborn development problems for generations, however...* That beside, the basic mission of industrialization to uplift the human world out of poverty is likely to be complete by 2050 if we are lucky, by 2100 if we are not...* There is good reason to think that the next generation will be for the world better and more impressive than the last generation. And the last generation was, on a world scale, you know, better and more impressive than was the post-WWII Thirty Glorious Years in the North Atlantic...* Future guests, possibly?: Dietz Vollrath, Arvind Subramanian, Charlie Stross...References:* Fourastié, Jean. 1979. Les Trente Glorieuses, ou la révolution invisible de 1946 à 1975. Paris: Fayard. .* Subramanian, Arvind, Martin Kessler, & Emanuele Properzi. 2023. "Trade Hyperglobalization is Dead. Long Live...?" Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper, No. 23-11. .* Stross, Charles. 2005. Accelerando. New York: Ace Books. * Vollrath, Dietrich. 2020. Fully Grown: Why a Stagnant Economy Is a Sign of Success. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. .+, of course:* Vinge, Vernor. 1992. A Fire Upon the Deep. New York: TOR. . Get full access to Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality at braddelong.substack.com/subscribe

I epispode 11 har Mehran og Styrmann med seg Rasmus Eggen Vinge som gjest. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Note: Some audio issues with our mics in this episode. Apologies for the diminished quality.  In this episode, the boys discuss the future of literacy - in large part to avoid discussing Vinge's disappointing novel. We touch upon what the emergence of generative AI might mean for writing and reading, and we talk about the craft of writing about the future. 

Glem debatten på NRK, de harde spørsmålene finner du her! En avdød finanskjendis`bil er til salgs, men vil du ha den eller vil du heller ha billig bil med stor spoiler? Og hva er den kjedeligste bilen som finnes? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Raven speaks with Marnie Vinge, author & podcaster, in this fun conversation. They talk about spooky season stuff, maneaters, ghosts, murder mysteries, "I Remember Everything," "For Rose," serial killers, true crime ethics, and so much more. Get Marnie's books here. Listen to Eerie Okie wherever you get your podcasts. Get some signed copies of Marnie's books, sign up for her newsletter, and more at https://marniewritesthrillers.com/. --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thesirenspodcast/message Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thesirenspodcast/support

Rasmus Eggen Vinge har vært svært sentral i Kjelsås sitt cupeventyr denne sesongen, men etter kvartfinalen mot Raufoss forlot han klubben, til fordel for Stabæk. Han skulle svært gjerne vært med når Molde står på motsatt side i onsdagens semifinale, men samtidig har han fått oppfylt en annen guttedrøm, nemlig spill i eliteserien. Det var ingen selvfølgelighet, for Rasmus har gått sine egne veier hele karrieren. Det blir en lang, men veldig interressant prat med kometen - kanskje til inspirasjon for andre yngre spillere? Vår gjest er i hvert fall svært opptatt av trivsel når det kommer til fotball. Noen ganger gikk det kanskje for langt, som da han ikke ville spille for skolens førstelag i en turnering i Malaga. 22-åringen er i hvert fall klar på én ting, og det er at akademifotball aldri ville vært noe for han, og at vil spille fotball for å ha det gøy. Hvis det hadde betydd at han måtte gitt slipp på proffdrømmen, så hadde han det. Denne sesongen har det imidlertid vist seg at Vinges metode fungerer, for han har tatt Stabæk med storm, og Kjelsås til semifinale. Det blit en lang, fin, hyggelig, og morsom prat med Bøler-gutten.I studio: Reidar Sollie, Pål Karstensen, Rasmus Eggen Vinge og Haakon Thon. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Das Sporttagebuch mit Michael Knöppel - 23. Juli 2023 E-Mail: sporttagebuch.michael@gmail.com Instagram: @das_sporttagebuch Twitter: @Sporttagebuch_

-- . Nûçeyên giring yên Swêdê îro 20.04.2023 ji vê podkasta beê kurdî yê Radyoya Swêdê. Derhîner: Nazanin MahmoudPêşkêşkar: Sidki Hirori

Priset på en ask tomater får oss att bryta samman i affären. Vad ska Elisabeth Svantesson göra åt det? Vi pratar ekonomisk politik och vad regeringen har för planer och medel för att hjälpa och lugna hushållen. Lena och My diskuterar hur Ingerö/Skyttedal-situationen kommer att påverka KD framåt. Sen tillåter vi oss att spekulera HEJ VILT om vem som tar över partiledarposterna i de åtta partierna när den dagen kommer. Vinge? Linde? Bah Kuhnke? Programledare och producent: Olivia Svenson. Experter: Lena Mellin och My Rohwedder. Kontakt: podcast@aftonbladet.se

Moore's Law is one observable component of a much larger trend towards accelerating intelligence, plotted in terms of computing power, and Ray Kurzweil is arguing that it's somehow driven by evolution itself. What lies at the end of this 'technolution'?http://www.troubledminds.org Support The Show! https://www.buymeacoffee.com/troubledminds https://rokfin.com/creator/troubledminds https://troubledfans.com https://patreon.com/troubledmindsRadio Schedule Mon-Tues-Wed-Thurs 7-9pst - https://fringe.fm/iTunes - https://apple.co/2zZ4hx6Spotify - https://spoti.fi/2UgyzqMStitcher - https://bit.ly/2UfAiMXTuneIn - https://bit.ly/2FZOErSTwitter - https://bit.ly/2CYB71UFollow Algo Rhythm -- https://bit.ly/3uq7yRYFollow Apoc -- https://bit.ly/3DRCUEjFollow Ash -- https://bit.ly/3CUTe4ZFollow Daryl -- https://bit.ly/3GHyIaNFollow James -- https://bit.ly/3kSiTEYFollow Jennifer -- https://bit.ly/3BVLyCMFollow Joseph -- https://bit.ly/3pNjbzb Matt's Book -- https://amzn.to/3fqmRWgFollow Nightstocker -- https://bit.ly/3mFGGtxRobert's Book -- https://amzn.to/3GEsFUKFollow TamBam -- https://bit.ly/3LIQkFw--------------------------------------------------https://www.the-sun.com/news/7011371/chilling-ai-predicts-god-creepy-images/https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/26/magazine/yejin-choi-interview.htmlhttps://www.bible-bridge.com/face-of-god-in-bible/https://bible.knowing-jesus.com/topics/Face-Of-Godhttps://www.learnreligions.com/face-of-god-bible-4169506https://www.iflscience.com/a-strange-anomaly-on-scans-turned-out-to-be-an-entirely-new-organ-hidden-within-your-face-66834https://medium.com/predict/is-moores-law-evidence-for-a-new-stage-in-human-evolution-2b073fff2767https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerating_change#Vinge's_exponentially_accelerating_changehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerating_change#Kurzweil's_The_Law_of_Accelerating_Returnshttps://media.discordapp.net/attachments/720538485769109609/1058207290467041410/image.png?width=1440&height=214https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/748794508627673088/1058213890506371162/image.png

1a rad: Vinge fogas nu till vinge Uppläsare: Göran Sonnevi DIKTSAMLING: För vem talar jag framtidens språk, Bonniers, 2022MUSIK Maurice Ravel: Den eviga frågan ur Två hebreiska melodier.EXEKUTÖR Mischa Maisky, cello och Daria Hovora, piano

ICCA 2022 Mini-Series - Part 5: In our fifth instalment, we interviewed a Scottish local (well, sort of). James Hope, a Partner at Vinge in Stockholm, sits down to discuss the progress of fairness and diversity in arbitration. He specifically reflects on the importance of the rule of law, even in war times, and arbitration as being a tool for peace.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Vingean Agency, published by Abram Demski on August 24, 2022 on The AI Alignment Forum. I've been involved with several discussions about different notions of agency (and their importance/relationships) lately, especially with the PIBBSS group including myself, Daniel, Josiah, and Ramana; see here. There's one notion of agency (not necessarily "The" notion of agency, but a coherent and significant notion) which vanishes if you examine it too closely. Imagine that Alice is "smarter than Bob in every way" -- that is, Bob believes that Alice knows everything Bob knows, and possibly more. Bob doesn't necessarily agree with Alice's goals, but Bob expects Alice to pursue them effectively. In particular, Bob expects Alice's actions to be at least as effective as the best plan Bob can think of. Because Bob can't predict what Alice will do, the only way Bob can further constrain his expectations is to figure out what's good/bad for Alice's objectives. In some sense this seems like a best-case for Bob modeling Alice as an agent: Bob understands Alice purely by understanding her as a goal-seeking force. I'll call this Vingean agency, since Vinge talked about the difficulty of predicting agents who are smarter than you. and since this usage is consistent with other uses of the term "Vingean" in relation to decision theory. However Vingean agency might seem hard to reconcile with other notions of agency. We typically think of "modeling X as an agent" as involving attribution of beliefs to X, not just goals. Agents have probabilities and utilities. Bob has minimal use for attributing beliefs to Alice, because Bob doesn't think Alice is mistaken about anything -- the best he can do is to use his own beliefs as a proxy, and try to figure out what Alice will do based on that. When I say Vingean agency "disappears when we look at it too closely", I mean that if Bob becomes smarter than Alice (understands more about the world, or has a greater ability to calculate the consequences of his beliefs), Alice's Vingean agency will vanish. We can imagine a spectrum. At one extreme is an Alice who knows everything Bob knows and more, like we've been considering so far. At the other extreme is an Alice whose behavior is so simple that Bob can predict it completely. In between these two extremes are Alices who know some things that Bob doesn't know, while also lacking some information which Bob has. (Arguably, Eliezer's notion of optimization power is one formalization of Vingean agency, while Alex Flint's attraction-basin notion of optimization defines a notion of agency at the opposite extreme of the spectrum, where we know everything about the whole system and can predict its trajectories through time.) I think this spectrum may be important to keep in mind when modeling different notions of agency. Sometimes we analyze agents from a logically omniscient perspective. In representation theorems (such as Savage or Jeffrey-Bolker, or their lesser sibling, VNM) we tend to take on a perspective where we can predict all the decisions of an agent (including hypothetical decisions which the agent will never face in reality). From this omniscient perspective, we then seek to represent the agent's behavior by ascribing it beliefs and real-valued preferences (ie, probabilities and expected utilities). However, this omniscient perspective eliminates Vingean agency from the picture. Thus, we might lose contact with one of the important pieces of the "agent" phenomenon, which can only be understood from a more bounded perspective. On the other hand, if Bob knows Alice wants cheese, then as soon as Alice starts moving in a given direction, Bob might usefully conclude "Alice probably thinks cheese is in that direction". So modeling Alice as having beliefs is certainly not useless for Bob. Still, because Bob ...

Wendy Vinge is a Minnesota mom of 3. Her first two kids went to public school all the way through. But she knew she wanted something different for her youngest daughter. She really didn't know anyone who homeschooled and she had no idea how it would go, but now she's a half decade in and they are LOVING it. Wendy and E.J. talk about what led their family to homeschool, the Classical Conversations curriculum they use, the CC community they're a part of and how the educational freedom that homeschooling provides has changed/shaped the culture of their home - notably their mother-daughter relationship.  You can check out Classical Conversations (including finding a community near you) here: Classical ConversationsHomeschool Episode with Sam Sorbo

Ditte og Jonas har været på tur til Nordsjælland for at finde ud af, HVAD der i virkeligheden skete med slagteren, slagterens kone og den mand, byen mente var slagterkonens elsker. Vild historie! Og så er Prins Andrew - og nu gudhjælpemig også hans døtre - rodet ind i en skandale af dimensioner. Man tror næsten ikke, bunden kan blive dybere… Og så måtte panelet også tale om Henrik Qvortrups fyring. Hvorfor kunne ledelsen ikke fortælle sandheden, fra start? Hvor meget bullshit kan man fyre af, og hvad koster det Qvortrups troværdighed? I panelet sad journalist på ugebladet HER og NU, Nikolaj Vraa, teaterredaktør på Berlingske, Jakob Steen Olsen og chefredaktør på BT, Jonas Kuld Rathje. Sophie Lier producerede Ditte Okman var vært See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Join host Hadley Thorne as she has a great conversation with Marnie Vinge. Marnie is a novelist, storyteller, and creator of the podcast, Eerie Okie. She first started writing at the ripe age of 7, creating a science fiction horror story about a monster that lived in seaweed off the coast of Corpus Christi. Since then, she's stretched her wings by writing urban fantasy, paranormal romance, and horror. But her heart has always been in thrillers and to thrillers she has returned. Books: The Haunting of Solomon House (Blair Graves Book 1) Eerie Okie Short Reads: Vol. 1 The Way It Ends Books can be purchased at Marnie's amazon page: https://www.amazon.com/Marnie-Vinge/ Find Marnie online at https://www.marnievinge.net/ To check out Eerie Okie, search your favorite podcast platform. If you're an Oklahoma ghoul who loves the morbid and macabre, it's the podcast for you. https://www.eerieokie.com/ If you would like to continue the conversation come join us at the Wyrd Realities Facebook group: www.facebook.com/groups/wyrdrealities Or like our page www.facebook.com/WyrdRealities www.wyrdrealities.com Twitter: @wyrdrealities --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/wyrd-realities/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wyrd-realities/support

On this week's installment of The Lost Ogle Show, Patrick and Marisa welcome Author Marnie Vinge, the host of the Eerie Okie Podcast.  7:38 - Cryptids and cryptozoology 10:18 - The Stone Lion Inn EVP 15:00 - Weird fan encounters 26:55 - Sean Sellers and the Purple Church 33:00 - The Kitchen Lake Witch 38:05 - Being open about mental health 45:39 - Garth Brooks is a mage Published 25 October 2019 Do some business with our sponsors! Bricktown OKC Patricia's Erotic Boutique Anthem Brewing Oklahoma Contemporary Fassler Hall in Midtown Fowler Volkswagen in Norman Visit The Lost Ogle for more Great Content! Find Us Online! Marnie's Eerie Okie Facebook Patrick @TheLostOgle Marisa's Website! Chris at East Side Design Randy @JoaquinQuinoa

Content: In this episode, we talk with novelist Vernor Vinge about his Zones of Thought series, Writing, Telepathy, and the Singularity. Heavy stuff! Cast Hosted by Adam Berg, with Dean Karpowicz  About Vernor Vinge Vernor Vinge was born on October 2nd of 1944 in Waukesha, Wisconsin. Fascinated by science and particularly computers from an early age, he has a Ph.D. in computer science, and taught mathematics and computer science at San Diego State University for thirty years. He is known in the sci-fi world as the author most closely associated with the idea of “technological singularity,” which is the event or sequence of events that will occur when technology surpasses human intelligence and society ceases to be recognizable to today's humans.    Mr. Vinge has won five Hugo Awards, including one for each of his last three novels, A Fire Upon the Deep (1992), A Deepness in the Sky (1999), and Children of the Sky (2011), as well as Rainbow's End (2006). Other awards include the Prometheus Awards for Marooned in Realtime, and two Nebula nominations for A Fire Upon the Deep and A Deepness in the Sky.    One of the things that he is best known for is his rigorous hard-science approach to his science fiction. Mr. Vinge currently resides in San Diego, California. To listen to the episode, click below, and if you want to listen on your phone, we're available on Spotify, Google Play, and Stitcher.