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The OECD launched the Economic Survey of Ireland 2025 on Wednesday,12 February 2025. The biennial Survey provides detailed analysis of economic developments and key structural challenges, as well as making specific policy recommendations in these areas. This year's Economic Survey contains an in-depth thematic chapter entitled 'Making housing more affordable and resilient for all', in addition to exploring recent economic developments, competitiveness, and the green transition. About the Speakers: Paschal Donohoe is the Minister for Finance. He was appointed to this role on 23 January 2025. Before this, he served as Minister for Public Expenditure, NDP Delivery and Reform. Minister Donohoe was elected President of the Eurogroup of finance ministers in July 2020 for a two-and-a-half-year term. He was re-elected in December 2022, beginning his second mandate in January 2023. Álvaro S. Pereira is the OECD Chief Economist and G20 Finance Deputy. He oversees the Economics Department and ensures they are at the forefront of the international political economy agenda. He identifies ways in which the OECD can promote policies to improve member and partner countries long-term economic performance. Previously, he was the Director in the OECD Policy Studies Branch and OECD Country Studies Branch. Prior to the OECD, Mr Pereira was Minister for Economy and Employment in Portugal (2011- 2013) and was also a Professor at Simon Fraser University, Canada, a Lecturer at the University of British Columbia, Canada and at the University of York, UK. Müge Adalet McGowan is a Senior Economist and Head of the Japan/Ireland desk in the Economics Department at the OECD. Since joining the OECD in 2011, she has worked at several desks (Spain, Belgium, Denmark, Sweden) and the Productivity team, where she conducted policy research on productivity, insolvency regimes, and skill mismatches. Before joining the OECD, she worked as a Lecturer in Turkey and New Zealand, and as an economist at the New Zealand Treasury. She holds a PhD in Economics from University of California, Berkeley. Dr Martina Lawless is a Research Professor at the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). Before joining the ESRI, she received her doctorate from Trinity College Dublin and worked as a research economist at the Central Bank of Ireland. Her research has focused primarily on firm-level dynamics and decision making, covering a range of topics, such as access to finance for small and medium firms, effects of taxation, and participation in exporting. More recently, she has investigated the potential effects of Brexit and COVID-19 on firms in Ireland. Her work has been published in a number of leading international academic and policy journals. From 2017 to 2020, she was a member of the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council and she spent 2023-2024 on secondment to the Strategic Economic Development section of the Department of Finance. John McCarthy is the Chief Economist in the Department of Finance, with responsibility for the provision of economic and budgetary analysis and forecasts. He is currently the vice-chair of the OECD's Economic Policy Committee and an advisor to the National Competitiveness and Productivity Council; he was previously the chair of the European Union's output gap working group and a member of the National Statistics Board. He holds a B.A. in Economics and Mathematics from Trinity College Dublin and an M.Econ.Sc from UCD. He previously worked as a senior economist in the Central Bank of Ireland. This event was co-organised with the Department of Finance and the OECD.
Earlier this afternoon the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development presented its latest Economic Survey for Ireland. For more on their assessment of how we're doing right now, Chief Economist with the OECD Alvaro Pereira.
In today's episode on 3rd February 2025, we break down India's latest Economic Survey to see where the economy stands and where it's headed. Speak to Ditto's advisors now, by clicking the link here - https://ditto.sh/9zoz41
Only 1 in 2 youth in India are employable, leaving over 443 million young people lacking the skills needed for today's workforce, according to the 2024 Economic Survey. But why is that the case of an economy that remains one of the fastest-growing at a rapid clip of 8.2%? In this edition of The Core Report, Financial Journalist Govindraj Ethiraj gets a bird's eye view of the many challenges of skilling India's next generation. Siddharth Sahani, Co-Founder & Executive President of ATLAS SkillTech University, discusses the importance of soft skills and why IIT graduates may excel in hard skills but struggle professionally. Arindham Lahiri, CEO of the Automotive Skills Development Council (ASDC) talks about the intertwining of AI and data analytics with automotive systems and its impact in spearheading data-centric innovation in the industry. Shantanu Rooj, Founder & CEO of TeamLease EdTech, shares his insights on the "earn while you learn" model and the growing opportunities in entrepreneurship and global freelancing that are making conventional job opportunities less attractive to the youth. Know how industries can collaborate with academicians and universities to better equip India's graduates for the workforce. Learn all about the most sought-after academic disciplines (AL, ML, design, and cybersecurity to name a few) in 2025 that can help you make the right career moves. Understand why corporate mentorship will be huge in the coming years. Listeners! We await your feedback.... The Core and The Core Report is ad supported and FREE for all readers and listeners. Write in to shiva@thecore.in for sponsorships and brand studio requirements. For more of our coverage check out thecore.in Join and Interact anonymously on our whatsapp channel Subscribe to our Newsletter Follow us on: Twitter | Instagram | Facebook | Linkedin | Youtube
What are some of the most important reforms or initiatives needed to achieve the vision outlined in "India@100"? How does the book address potential criticisms of its growth projections and policy recommendations? For the latest episode of SparX, Krishnamurthy Subramanian, renowned economist and author, joins us to discuss his latest book 'India@100'. Explore the vision and strategies for India's economic growth. From ancient economic texts to modern-day reforms, Subramanian offers unique insights into India's growth potential. Tune in to discover the roadmap for India's journey to becoming a $55 trillion economy by 2047. Discover the insights and expertise that can shape India's future. Resource List - The Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services Ltd (IL&FS) Crisis - https://www.edu91.org/blog/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-il-fs-fiasco#:~:text=IL&FS%2D%20You%20all%20might%20have,it%20involved%209900%20crore%20rupees. To Know More About the Economic Survey - https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/economicsurvey/ What is a V shaped Recovery? - https://www.nextias.com/ca/current-affairs/30-12-2022/v-shaped-recovery#:~:text=In%20a%20V%2Dshaped%20recovery,the%20economic%20growth%20recovers%20sharply. To Know More About the Global Financial Crisis - https://www.britannica.com/money/financial-crisis-of-2007-2008 To Know More About the Asian Financial Crisis - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/asian-financial-crisis.asp#:~:text=The%20Asian%20financial%20crisis%20started,region%20falling%E2%80%94some%20quite%20catastrophically. What is the Golden Quadrilateral? - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Quadrilateral What is the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana? - https://omms.nic.in/ To Know More About the 1973 Oil Crisis - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis What is a Black Swan Event? - https://www.britannica.com/topic/black-swan-event What is Thalinomics? - https://www.indiabudget.gov.in/budget2020-21/economicsurvey/doc/vol1chapter/echap11_Vol1.pdf What is the Rule of 72? - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/ruleof72.asp About SparX by Mukesh Bansal SparX is a podcast where we delve into cutting-edge scientific research, stories from impact-makers and tools for unlocking the secrets to human potential and growth. We believe that entrepreneurship, fitness and the science of productivity is at the forefront of the India Story; the country is at the cusp of greatness and at SparX, we wish to make these tools accessible for every generation of Indians to be able to make the most of the opportunities around us. In a new episode every Sunday, our host Mukesh Bansal (Founder Myntra and Cult.fit) will talk to guests from all walks of life and also break down everything he's learnt about the science of impact over the course of his 20-year long career. This is the India Century, and we're enthusiastic to start this journey with you. Follow us on our Instagram: / sparxbymukeshbansal Also check out our website: https://www.sparxbymukeshbansal.com You can also listen to SparX on all audio platforms! Fasion | Outbreak | Courtesy EpidemicSound.com
►Think School's flagship Communication course with live doubt sessions : https://thethinkschool.com/sp/communication-masterclass/ ►Follow Think School Social Media: Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@ThinkSchool Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thethinkschool?igsh=NWg2ZXRyZmdsM2ds&utm_source=qr In today's episode In this episode of the Indian Business Podcast, We have Sanjeev Sanyal. Sanyal is an Indian economist and popular historian. A member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India, he has helped prepare six editions of the Economic Survey of India since 2017. He has also written several books on Indian history. In this episode, he discusses India's plan to reach a 10-trillion dollar economy. He shares his point of view on India's growth in the past decade and why India is lagging behind Germany. This episode is a must-watch if you're an aspiring entrepreneur or simply curious about business growth! Share your thoughts in the comments below!
In 2020, the Indian government issued a directive that made changes to its FDI policy. The Directive, called Press Note 3, made it mandatory for companies that are based in countries that India shares a land border with to get the government's approval before investing in India. Experts saw this as a move to curtail Chinese investments into India and protect Indian companies from hostile takeovers. Chinese investments in India have fallen to a nearly two-decade low as a result. However, it is important to note that China is not a major investor in India, only $4 billion of Chinese FDI has entered the country in two decades. Over the last couple of months, several reports, including the Economic Survey, have made a case for urging the govt to allow Chinese investments in India. “To boost Indian manufacturing and plug India into the global supply chain, it is inevitable that India plugs itself into China's supply chain. Whether we do so by relying solely on imports or partially through Chinese investments is a choice that India has to make," the Economic Survey stated. Several media houses, including from The Hindu businessline, reported that the government is willing to relook this policy, even though the government has denied this. This could help get more investments in India. Meanwhile, India's net FDI inflow dropped by 62.17% to $10.58 billion in 2023-24 (FY24), a 17-year-low, from $27.98 billion the previous year, data from the RBI showed. Can such a move benefit India? We discuss this in the episode. Guest: Santosh Pai, Honorary Fellow at the Institute of Chinese Studies Host: Nivedita V Edited by Jude Francis Weston
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee announced on Thursday (August 8) to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% in its August 2024 meeting for the ninth consecutive time. It maintained its inflation projection for FY25 at 4.5 per cent. While announcing the MPC policy, Governor Shaktikanta Das noted that headline inflation reached 5.1 per cent in June 2024, driven by unexpected factors. Fuel prices remained in deflation for the tenth consecutive month, but food inflation surged. Food inflation contributed over 75 per cent to headline inflation in May and June. Vegetable prices alone accounted for roughly 35 per cent of June's inflation. Governor Das said that that the MPC cannot afford to ignore this, espicially in an environment of persisting high food inflation. Vegetables and pulses have kept headline retail inflation has been over 5 per cent for eight months in the last one year. However, retail core inflation — the non-food and non-fuel segment — moderated to a four-year low of 4.3 per cent in FY24. In fact, core inflation saw a historic low during May and June. Some experts believe that high food inflation is stopping the RBI from cutting rates. In fact, the Economic Survey has suggested that "India's inflation targeting framework should consider targeting inflation, excluding food." The argument for the change is that core inflation is muted, meaning the domestic demand is weak. Core inflation measure the change in the cost of goods and services, but it does not include the food and energy sectors. A rate cut would help boost demand. Others say that food inflation is a very important component and it can't be excluded. In this podcast, V Nivedita spoke to Dipti Deshpande, Director and Principal Economist at CRISIL Limited, to decode the debate - should the RBI focus on core inflation while forming its monetary policy? Guest: Dipti Deshpande, Director and Principal Economist at CRISIL Limited Host: V. Nivedita Edited by Jude Weston
भारत में नई सरकार बनी. प्रधानमंत्री के रूप नरेंद्र मोदी तीसरी बार सरकार की कमान संभाल रहे हैं. उनकी तीसरी पारी में सबकी निगाहें यूं तो कई मुद्दों पर हैं. लेकिन फिलहाल तो स्पॉटलाइट के नीचे रहा बजट 2024 – 25. लेकिन आपको याद होगा कि बजट सत्र से पहले वित्त मंत्री ने एक Economic Survey पेश किया था. ये क्या होता है? क्यों होता है? इसकी ज़रूरत क्यों है? कौन इसे बनाता है? ये सभी सवाल मन में कौंधते हैं. 'ज्ञान ध्यान' के इस एपिसोड में जानेंगे कहानी Economic Survey की. प्रड्यूसर: चेतना काला साउन्ड मिक्सिंग: नितिन रावत
In today's episode for 23rd July 2024, we offer a simplified analysis of the Economic Survey 2023-2024. Speak to Ditto's advisors now, by clicking the link here - https://ditto.sh/9zoz41
Welcome to Top of the Morning by Mint, your weekday newscast that brings you five major stories from the world of business. It's Tuesday, July 23, 2024. My name is Nelson John. Let's get started:Continuing their losing streak for a second consecutive session, Indian stock market benchmarks, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex, closed in the red on Monday, July 22, ahead of the Union Budget 2024.The Economic Survey - an annual document presenting the state of India's economy - was tabled in Parliament on Monday, a day ahead of the Union Budget. The Survey serves as the government's most detailed analysis of the economy and plays a crucial role in shaping policy decisions. Today, let's take a look at the critical stories around the Survey, as the country prepares for the third Narendra Modi government's first full budget. As we look ahead to the Union Budget for 2024-25, Mint's N Madhavan looks at the insights the Survey might offer into what may be prioritised. The Survey cautiously pegs next year's economic growth at between 6.5% and 7%. To keep this momentum, it points to several key areas. These include enhancing job and skill development, supporting small and micro enterprises, maximizing agricultural outputs, managing environmental transitions, tackling inequality, and growing the corporate bond markets. Madhavan also explains what the Survey has to present on key economic indicators. The Economic Survey highlights a critical need for job creation in India, projecting a requirement to generate 7.8-8.1 million jobs annually up to 2036, which totals about 103 million new roles. The emphasis is not only on quantity but also on quality, as current data indicates only half of college graduates are directly employable. To address this, there has been an increase in youth receiving formal vocational education, although participation remains in the low single-digits. Informal training channels are compensating somewhat, contributing an additional 16.6% in trained youth. Read today's Long Story by howindialives.com to understand the government's recipe for growth in charts. You can click on the link in the show notes to see the charts prepared by our partners at howindialives.com.The Economic Survey 2023-24, delivered by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, emphasizes the pivotal role of the private sector in scaling up investments and spearheading job creation in an era increasingly shaped by technology and AI. The Survey critiques the private sector's investment patterns, noting a preference for real estate over sectors like machinery and intellectual property, which are crucial for transforming India into a manufacturing hub and creating quality jobs. Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran stresses that employment offers dignity and self-respect, urging corporates to prioritize job creation. Additionally, the Survey advocates a strategic embrace of Chinese FDI, suggesting that India can boost its export capabilities by integrating into Chinese supply chains, a strategy that has benefitted other Asian economies. This approach aligns with global trade shifts and could enhance India's export performance, particularly to the United States. Mint's senior editors Gireesh Chandra Prasad and Subhash Narayan write on the Economic Survey's focus on private investment and job creation.Qatar's sovereign wealth fund, the Qatar Investment Authority, which has been an investor in Bengaluru-based ed-tech startup Byju's, has taken legal action in India, demanding that founder Byju Raveendran disclose his personal assets. Mint's startup editor Ranjani Raghavan reports that the QIA has approached the Karnataka High Court to prevent Raveendran from selling or transferring his assets, aiming to secure up to $235.19 million. QIA has been deeply involved with Byju's, having invested in 2019 and 2022. It also provided a $250 million loan to Raveendran in March 2022. He used this loan to invest back into Byju's during its last funding round, which valued the company at $22 billion. Now, QIA is seeking a court injunction to freeze Raveendran's dealings with his assets, reflecting the serious financial stakes. The Indian government is actively preparing for a new phase of airport development under public-private partnerships. This aligns with its aim to enhance infrastructure in the rapidly growing aviation sector. Senior government officials told Mint's aviation correspondent Anu Sharma that internal discussions are underway, with plans to open bids for several airports by the end of the financial year. This approach builds on the previous strategy of pairing major airports with smaller ones for balanced development. Currently, only 14 out of over 135 airports operate under public-private partnerships, indicating significant potential for future privatization and investment. We'd love to hear your feedback on this podcast. Let us know by writing to us at feedback@livemint.com. You may send us feedback, tips or anything that you feel we should be covering from your vantage point in the world of business and finance. Show notes:Mint Primer: Hints on budget proposals from the economic surveyEconomic Survey: The government's recipe for growth, in 12 chartsEconomy to grow at 6.5-7; time for private sector to take the capex baton: Economic SurveyNow, Qatar wealth fund goes after Byju Raveendran's personal assetsAirport privatisation plan on the anvil
Opposition says poverty and unemployment trumped Hindutva but Modi-Shah have a different view on 2024 mandate, ThePrint's Political Editor DK Singh explains in this episode of #PoliticallyCorrect
Why is BJP doubling down on Hindutva? Modi-Shah have a different reading of 2024 result, ThePrint's Political Editor DK Singh analyses in this episode of #politicallycorrect -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Read the column here: https://theprint.in/opinion/politically-correct/why-is-bjp-doubling-down-on-hindutva-modi-shah-have-a-different-reading-of-2024-result/2184946/
This is the Catch Up on 3 Things for the Indian Express and I'm Flora Swain.It's the 22nd of July and here are today's headlines.Ahead of the Modi 3.0 Budget, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman tabled the Economic Survey 2023-24 in the Monsoon Session of Lok Sabha parliament highlighting an 8.2 per cent economic growth estimation in real terms in the financial year consolidating to post-Covid recovery, fiscal and monetary with policymakers. While inflation for specific food items has elevated, the headline inflation is under control with a surplus registered in the last quarter.Speaking of the parliament, a day ahead of the much-awaited Union Budget, the Lok Sabha session kicked off with partisan attacks on Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan during the ‘Question Hour' rowing over the NEET - UG paper leak case. Congress MP Manickam Tagore and Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav criticised Pradhan over the purported paper leak incident, whereas Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi claimed that Pradhan will “blame everybody but himself”.Meanwhile, the Supreme Court has resumed the NEET matter hearing today. Senior advocate Hooda told the top court that the paper leak took place through WhatsApp so it was impossible that it was confined only to Patna in Bihar. He said, “Solvers were taken from Rajasthan. Dissemination was through WhatsApp. It is not possible that the leak is confined to Patna.``. He added that if the apex court is “not considering re-NEET, at least qualified people should be asked to retake the exam, which will be about 13 lakh people.”A day after a 14-year-old boy in Malappuram succumbed to the Nipah virus, the Kerala health department confirmed today that he had consumed hog plum fruit from his neighbourhood, where the presence of fruit bats, known as a reservoir of the zoonotic virus, was confirmed. Health minister Veena George, after a review in Malappuram, said the boy's friends have said that he consumed the fruit, known locally as ambazhanga, from the vicinity of his house days before he developed the fever.With President Joe Biden opting out of the US presidential race and endorsing his Vice President as the Democrat's nominee, Kamala Harris praised his extraordinary leadership and has raised $49.6 million for her presidential campaign in less than a day of Biden withdrawing, Reuters reported. Harris said, quote “I am honored to have the President's endorsement and my intention is to earn and win this nomination,” unquote. This was the Catch-Up on the 3 Things by The Indian Express.
कल यानी मंगलवार को केंद्रीय बजट पेश होगा। वित्त मंत्री निर्मला सीतारमण लगातार 7वीं बार बजट पेश कर रिकॉर्ड बनाएंगी। इस बजट में क्या कुछ ख़ास रहने की उम्मीद है जानें इकोनॉमिस्ट आकाश जिंदल के साथ सिर्फ एबीपी लाइव पॉडकास्ट पर FYI में
According to new economic survey data, there appears to be a disconnect between economists and regular people. Certified Financial Planner Ryan Chin unpacks the numbers. From the March 6, 2024, episode.
One of the newest AAPOR Affinity Groups is dedicated to establishment surveys, those surveys where the unit of collection is not a household or individual, but rather an institution, like a hospital, school, or business, or some other non-human entity. An important example of this survey is the U.S. Census Bureau's Annual Integrated Economic Survey (AIES). In this episode, two of the driving forces behind the AIES discuss the challenges and preparations involved in implementing the survey, as well as its potential impact on economic data collection. Host: Melissa A. Cidade, PhD, Survey Methodologist, Economy-Wide Statistics Division, Office of the Division Chief, U.S. Census Bureau Guests: Lisa Endy Donaldson, Division Chief, Economy-Wide Statistics Division; Acting Chief, Economic Management Division, U.S. Census Bureau Heidi St.Onge, Annual Content Determination Lead for Economic Programs, Office of the Associate Director for Economic Programs, U.S. Census Bureau
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will equal the feat of former Prime Minister Morarji Desai today when she rises to present her sixth consecutive budget in the Parliament. But will she stick to the old tradition of keeping the interim budget free of pre-election sops or big schemes? What clue could the history of the interim budget offer us? Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has an impressive record of keeping promises. Just a fortnight after she had said that the government was going through the process of direct listing of stocks in GIFT IFSC in a “very systematic manner”, the rules were finally notified last week. Indian companies can now list on foreign exchanges. But how will it benefit India Inc.? Cleary GIFT city will open a window of opportunity for Indian companies. But today, India Inc. and investors will be glued to TV sets. Today's ‘disha-nirdeshak' Budget, as PM Modi called it on January 31, will be keenly watched as investors expect the government to paint a picture of commitment to growth and sustainability ahead of the General Elections. But, kick-starting demand in rural and urban landscapes would come at a cost. Will the markets be able to digest that? Let's gauge which fiscal estimates may play spoilsport for the markets? The ruling government cannot present the Economic Survey with the interim budget. This time it came out with an economic review telling about India's journey over the last ten years. But ever wondered exactly what is an interim budget? We explain it in this episode of the podcast.
In this week's podcast, Chamber Deputy Director of Research, Subrah Krishnan-Harihara, talks about some of the findings from our regular business survey - the Quarterly Economic Survey (QES). The QES has been running for 35 years this year, and is a business confidence survey, asking questions about how businesses are faring in terms of sales and orders, whether they're planning to recruit and what their future plans are. Subrah highlights some of the findings from the Q3 QES and how they are relevant to the LSIP, helping to provide extra data about businesses' recruitment intentions, the job roles they're recruiting for and their labour and skills requirements. If you're interested in reading more about the Chamber's Quarterly Economic Survey, follow this link: https://www.gmchamber.co.uk/chamber-research/quarterly-economic-survey/ To find out more about the Local Skills Improvement Plan (LSIP) for Greater Manchester, visit our website here. You can read the report, listen to our other podcasts, read our blog and take part in our latest survey. If you'd like to discuss your recruitment and skills challenges, please contact the team via gmlsip@gmchamber.co.uk.
First, Indian Express' Ishan Bakshi joins us to talk about this year's Economic Survey which is the most authoritative and comprehensive analysis of the economy conducted from within the Union government.Second, Indian Express' associate editor Shubhajit Roy explains the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan, which has survived the test of time and why India's notice for modification may impact their relationship. (10:32)And in the end, we give an update on a hunger strike by education reformist Sonam Wangchuk in Ladakh. (22:05)Hosted by Rahel Philipose Produced and scripted by Utsa Sarmin, Shashank Bhargava, and Anwiti SinghEdited and mixed by Abhishek Kumar
How is the Indian economy doing? We take a look at some of the key highlights from the Economic Survey 2023. The Signal's co-founder and Editor, Dinesh Narayanan also joins us today to slice and dice the report for us. In other news, EdTech company Byju's is now planning to offer one-on-one home tuitions for the K-12 segment or the kindergarten to class 12 kids. Private home tuitions is a thriving unregulated business in India and tutors who are in the business, have already created their niche. Will Byju's be able to make its place in it? Tune in!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
बातम्या सविस्तर ऐकण्यासाठी क्लिक करा.....सकाळच्या पॉडकास्टला....1. Economic Survey 2023 : शिक्षणावरील वाढलेला खर्च, बेरोजगारीत घट, जाणून घ्या काय आहे आर्थिक सर्वेक्षणात?2. MPSC Student Protest: हजारो MPSC विद्यार्थ्यांना दिलासा; शिंदे सरकारने घेतला मोठा निर्णय3. Asaram Bapu Life Sentence: बलात्कार प्रकरणात आसारामला दुसऱ्यांदा जन्मठेप! काय आहे प्रकरण?4. जय जय महाराष्ट्र माझा' हे गीत राज्यगीत म्हणून घोषित5. Economic Survey 2022-23 : अर्थमंत्र्यांकडून सर्वेक्षण सादर; इतका असणार GDP6. अमृताने मानले 'सकाळ' चे आभार7. क्रीडाक्षेत्रातील एक महत्वाची बातमी - जोकोविच पाकिस्तानचा असता तर..माजी क्रिकेटपटू हे काय बोलून गेला8. चर्चेतील बातमी - Anil Parab Office : "...अन् काळवंडलेला मुकादम"; कंगनावरच्या कारवाईचा शिंदे गटाने वचपा काढला? - रिसर्च अँड स्क्रिप्ट - युगंधर ताजणे, निलम पवार
Have you ever wondered how the Indian economy is performing? Do you want to understand the government's economic policies and their impact on the economy? If yes, then the Economic Survey of India is the document you should be looking at. In this episode, we will be taking you on a journey to uncover the history, importance, and key features of the Economic Survey of India. #Economic #survey #2023 #Budget #Union #UPSC #IASprep #civilserviceexam #IASexamination #IASaspirants #UPSCjourney #IASexam #civilservice #IASgoals #UPSC2022 #IAS2022 #civilservant #IAScoaching #UPSCmotivation #IASmotivation #UPSCpreparation #IASpreparation #UPSCguide #IASguide #UPSCtips #IAStips #UPSCbooks #IASbooks #UPSCexamstrategy #IASexamstrategy #UPSCmentorship #IASmentorship #UPSCcommunity #IAScommunity #UPSCpreparation #IASpreparation #UPSCguide #IASguide #UPSCtips #IAStips #UPSCbooks #IASbooks #UPSCexamstrategy #IASexamstrategy #UPSCmentorship #IASmentorship #UPSCcommunity #IAScommunity --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/theiascompanion/message
Economic Survey pegs GDP growth at 6.5% in real, 11% in nominal terms in 2023-24, Visakhapatnam will be new Andhra Pradesh capital: CM Jagan Reddy, Gautam Adani drops off list of world's top 10 richest people and other top news in this bulletin.
Aaj k episode main baat karenge Economic Survey 2023 k baare main.Kya kya points discuss huye and kal k budget se kya hai hamari expectations.Janne k liye sunte rahiye Namastey India!
The WV Geological and Economic Survey welcomes visitors to view their natural history museum … a mining engineer plans to convert old coal mines into salmon farms … and, are you looking for a job in information technology? West Virginia is hiring! – on today's daily304, listen here…
This event, which commemorates the Department of Finance's 100th Anniversary and was co-organised by the IIEA, the Department of Finance, and the OECD, examines what the OECD Economic Survey means for Ireland. Part 1: Presentation on the Report of the Commission on Taxation and Welfare by Dr Colm O'Reardon, Secretary to the Commission on Taxation and Welfare Part 2: Panel discussion and Q&A on the Report of the Commission on Taxation and Welfare featuring Colm Kelly, Global Leader, Corporate Sustainability at PwC International, Dr Martina Lawless, Research Professor at the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), and Dr Colm O'Reardon, Secretary to the Commission on Taxation and Welfare.
This event, which commemorates the Department of Finance's 100th Anniversary and was co-organised by the IIEA, the Department of Finance, and the OECD, examines what the OECD Economic Survey means for Ireland. Part 1: Presentation on the Report of the Commission on Taxation and Welfare by Dr Colm O'Reardon, Secretary to the Commission on Taxation and Welfare Part 2: Panel discussion and Q&A on the Report of the Commission on Taxation and Welfare featuring Colm Kelly, Global Leader, Corporate Sustainability at PwC International, Dr Martina Lawless, Research Professor at the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), and Dr Colm O'Reardon, Secretary to the Commission on Taxation and Welfare
By the end of 1952, when the Employees' Provident Funds Act came into being, the average life expectancy of Indians was somewhere close to 40 years. Over 70 winters later, it is about 70 years now. And, with increased access to healthcare and better living conditions, the average age of Indians is likely to hit 80 in the next few years. While it is good that people are living longer, it is posing a few challenges before the government—which will have to spend more on social security and public welfare systems. It is against this backdrop that the Employee Provident Fund Organization or EPFO has called for raising the retirement age. According to reports, the retirement fund body in its vision document argued for aligning the retirement age with life expectancy. The rationale here is that, as life expectancy increases, in combination with lower fertility rates, the share of elderly population will continue to rise. The Central government spent nearly Rs 1.98 trillion for pension and related payments in FY22 According to a National Statistics Office report, the share of elderly in the total population is projected to reach nearly 15% by 2036. This means more people will be eligible for pension benefits and for a longer duration of time, putting additional burden on the state's exchequer and liability on pension funds. The Central government spent nearly Rs 1.98 trillion for pension and related payments in FY22. All these factors stress on the need to prepare for an ageing population. The Economic Survey 2018-19 too had floated the idea of increasing the retirement age. The survey said, given that life expectancy for both males and females in India is likely to continue rising, increasing the retirement age for both men and women going forward could be considered in line with the experience of other countries. Globally too, countries are mulling or have already raised retirement ages as a convenient and logical measure to cope up with an ageing population. In the US, the pension benefit age is set to rise gradually to reach 67 for those born in 1960 or later. In the UK, the state pension age is set to increase for men and women to 67 between 2026 and 2028. In countries like Denmark, Portugal and Italy, the retirement age is already linked to life expectancy. Germany is debating whether to increase the retirement age to 70. China has also confirmed that it will gradually delay its long-mandated retirement ages in the coming years. The official retirement age in India varies from 58 to 65 years, depending on public or private enterprise. In 2017, the government had increased the retirement age of central government doctors to better utilise the services of experienced doctors. So, should India consider raising the retirement age for other services as well? Santosh Mehrotra, Visiting Professor, Centre for Development Studies, University of Bath, UK and Research Fellow, IZA Institute of Labour Economics, Bonn, says India has more informal workers. Barely 9% have access have EPFO-type benefits. Shouldn't we be thinking of increasing the share of the workforce that gets social benefits, he asks. India should ponder on how to formalise the workforce with social benefits, he says. Another view is that delaying the retirement age will restrict the employment of younger workforce. This is based on the assumption that the number of jobs is fixed. According to a report in the ORF, examples of Japan and Singapore can be considered that have better managed such situations by creating re-employment after retirement, with different working hours and wages similar to part-time employment. Some jobs can be more demanding than others. For example, police or fire personnel might feel stressed working beyond a certain age, while physician doctors could work longer. Experts say raising the retirement age is only a part of the solution to prepare for an ageing population. Creating more formal jobs and increasi
India Policy Watch: Why is UBI Back Again?Insights on burning policy issues in India- Pranay KotasthaneThe Universal Basic Income (UBI) proposal made it to last week's policy headlines. The occasion was the release of a report commissioned by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister. Written by the Institute for Competitiveness, the State of Inequality in India Report bats for “raising minimum income and introducing universal basic income” to reduce “the income gap and equal distribution of earnings in the labour market”. There is no cost-benefit analysis or implementation details of the UBI in the report. Nevertheless, since this report has been commissioned by a government advisory body just a couple of years ahead of the next national election, the report has rekindled the conversation on UBI.What Do We Know About the UBI in India?UBI has been extensively discussed ever since the Economic Survey 2016-17. It is one of those rare ideas for which you will find liberal and progressive arguments both for and against it. So I’ll skip the usual arguments and get to the crux of the UBI in India. What we know is that a “Universal. Basic. Income.” is an impossible trinity in the Indian context. The government can at best meet two but not all three of its elements—a basic income that won’t be universal; a universal income that will be way below what qualifies as “basic”; or something that is universal and basic but not in the form of an income. This trilemma arises due to two reasons. One, India is just not rich enough for the government to fund a full UBI by taxing citizens at reasonable rates. The Economic Survey estimated that even a non-universal basic income for 75% of Indians would cost nearly 5% of the GDP. For context, the total expenditure incurred by the union government including all its portfolios was approximately 13% of GDP before the pandemic. Two, some proponents of UBI argue that the government can stop existing implicit and explicit subsidies, and use the savings to fund a UBI. The UBI would eliminate leakages, obviate the need for complex delivery machinery, and reduce incentives for corruption, they explain. But in a democratic setup where every political party finds it imperative to give individual handouts before elections, this is a leap of faith. It’s more likely that taxpayers will foot the bill for all current subsidies in addition to the UBI.Realising this trilemma, political proposals after the Economic Survey report have tended towards the first option— a targeted basic income scheme, which is non-universal by definition. One such formulation, the Minimum Income Guarantee Scheme for the Poor (MIGS), made it to the Indian National Congress’ 2019 manifesto. What Explains the UBI’s Return to the Headlines?This conversation on variants of UBI has picked up the pace again. Like any major crisis, the pandemic has impacted the poor more than the rich. And hence, various income support schemes are back in favour. The Overton Window seems to be shifting. Interestingly, this trajectory towards increased monetary transfers after a major crisis was anticipated in a book nearly 60 years ago. In a 1961 book titled The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom, economists Alan Peacock and Jack Wiseman observed the patterns of government spending in the UK between 1890-1955. The dominant view at that time was that government spending as a proportion of the overall economy keeps rising organically as citizen demands grow with rising incomes. In a poor country, most citizens make do with the State providing them with the bare basic public services. But as incomes and government revenues rise, citizens demand that the State also provide them with quality education, low-cost healthcare, and affordable housing, and so on.Peacock and Wiseman challenged this view of the organic growth of government spending. They saw that government spending rise in the UK happened in the form of step-jumps due to major crises (and there were many in their study period). Their explanation of this phenomenon was as follows. In normal times, the level of public spending is capped by the acceptable level of taxation. Even if citizens might find a higher level of government spending desirable, they won’t accept a higher rate of taxation in return. This equilibrium is shattered by a crisis such as a war, where government spending and rates of taxes increase to manage the immediate difficult situation at hand. However, once the crisis recedes, new ideas of tolerable taxation levels emerge, and government spending does not go back to its original position. This conjecture came to be known as the Peacock-Wiseman Hypothesis (PWH).Are we seeing PWH in action in India, because of COVID-19? If one were to look at costly expenditure policies such as UBI, speculations about a GST rate of 8% replacing the 5% rate, and the high fuel taxes, it does seem that we are moving towards a new normal in government spending. Another interesting element of this hypothesis is the “inspection” effect:“social upheavals impose new and continuing obligations on governments both as the aftermath of functions assumed in wartime (e.g., payments of war pensions, debt interest, reparation payments) and as the result of changes in social ideas. Wars often force the attention of governments and peoples to problems of which they were formerly less conscious—there is an "inspection effect," which should not be underestimated.”The optimist would say that the inspection effect might lead Indian governments to finally focus on key areas such as pro-market reforms, liberalisation of factor markets, defence, poverty reduction and public health. But the realist would argue that the policy debate on public health hasn’t matured enough to present viable options, and hence it is more likely that the government might opt to spend on “quick-win” schemes such as the UBI or PLI, which are simpler and intuitive at face value. So, on the whole, we should keep a close eye on the government spending trajectory.PS: Peacock and Wiseman hasten to remind us that their conjecture is not inevitable, the reality depends on the social and economic context of the crisis itself. Speaking about PWH, we’re hosting a conversation with India’s foremost authority (and my public finance teacher), Dr Govinda Rao, this Friday. His latest book Studies in Indian Public Finance narrates India’s tryst with taxes, debt, expenditures and budgets. A must-read for any public policy enthusiast.Global Policy Watch #1: Axel Leijonhufvud On His Tribe Global policy issues relevant to India - RSJ“The Econ tribe occupies a vast territory in the far North. Their land appears bleak and dismal to the outsider and travelling through it makes for rough sledding; but the Econ, through a long period of adaptation, have learned to wrest a living of sorts from it. They are not without some genuine and sometimes even fierce attachment to their ancestral grounds, and their young are brought up to feel contempt for the softer living in the warmer lands of their neighbours such as the Polscis (Political Scientists) and the Sociogs (Sociologists). Despite a common genetical heritage, relations with these tribes are strained-the distrust and contempt that the average Econ feels for these neighbours being heartily reciprocated by the latter-and social intercourse with them is inhibited by numerous taboos. The extreme clannishness, not to say xenophobia, of the Econ makes life among them difficult and perhaps even somewhat dangerous for the outsider. This probably accounts for the fact that the Econ have so far-not been systematically studied. Information about their social structure and ways of life is fragmentary and not well validated. More research on this interesting tribe is badly needed.”That’s how the paper ‘Life Among The Econ’ began in the September 1973 edition of Western Economic Journal. Written by a young professor at UCLA, Axel Leijonhufvud, the paper was a humorous take on economists as a tribe written in the style of a field paper of an anthropologist. Reading it almost fifty years after it was written, it is hilariously accurate and relevant.Axel Leijonhufvud died earlier this month. His defining work was his 1968 book ‘On Keynesian Economics and the Economics of Keynes’ where he questioned the validity of the IS-LM model that had become the foundation for applying Keynesian economics. The success of Keynesian economics and the subsequent research on it had made most believe that there was nothing left anymore to discover in macroeconomics. Leijonhufvud proposed a radical departure from this consensus. He called it the ‘cybernetic’ approach that begins with rejecting the notion that the system is in a state of equilibrium. Instead, he argued that the economy is always in a dynamic state which is continually evolving based on initial information available with transactors - their endowments, beliefs, expectations, existing relationships, assets etc. There are a set of possible actions given an initial state and the behavioural rules that will dictate what next step will be chosen. Economic systems, he claimed, operate at a tactical, transaction level with no planned long-term goal. You can study this over time and there will be patterns of behaviour and reference points that will emerge based on the initial set of assumptions but there’s no guarantee things will always converge to an equilibrium. It was an intellectual challenge to Keynesian consensus and laid the ground for the takeover of the field by the adherents of the rational expectations theory. Famously, his book that theorised at length on macroeconomics didn’t have a single formula. He didn’t need them to make his point. Leijonhufvud believed then (1971) that economics was being taken over by top-down quant models without having an ear to the ground. 50 years later you could argue things have gotten worse.Anyway, I will leave you with a sample of Leijonhufvud’s dry wit from his anthropological study of the econ tribe.On status among economists:“A comparison of status relationships in the different “fields” shows a definite common pattern. The dominant feature, which makes status relations among the Econ of unique interest to the serious student, is the way that status is tied to the manufacture of certain types of implements, called “modls.” The status of the adult male is determined by his skill at making the “modl” of his “field.” The facts (a) that the Econ are highly status-motivated, (b) that status is only to be achieved by making ”modls,” and (c) that most of these “modls” seem to be of little or no practical use, probably accounts for the backwardness and abject cultural poverty of the tribe. Both the tight linkage between status in the tribe and modlmaking and the trend toward making modls more for ceremonial than for practical purposes appear, moreover, to be fairly recent developments, something which has led many observers to express pessimism for the viability of the Econ culture.”On the primacy of models over everything else:“While in origin the word “modl” is simply a term for a concrete implement, looking at it only in these terms will blind the student to key aspects of Econ social structure. “Modl” has evolved into an abstract concept which dominates the Econ’s perception of virtually all social relationships-whether these be relations to other tribes, to other castes, or status relations within his caste. Thus, in explaining to a stranger, for example, why he holds the Sociogs or the Polscis in such low regard, the Econ will say that “they do not make modls” and leave it at that. The dominant role of “modl” is perhaps best illustrated by the (unfortunately very incomplete) accounts we have of relationships between the two largest of the Econ castes, the “Micro” and the “Macro.” Each caste has a basic modl of simple pattern and the modls made by individual members will be variations on the theme set by the basic modl of the caste. Again, one finds that the Econ define the social relationship, in this instance between two castes, in terms of the respective modl. Thus if a Micro-Econ is asked why the Micro do not intermarry with the Macro, he will answer: “They make a different modl,” or “They do not know the Micro modl.” (In this, moreover, he would be perfectly correct, but then neither, of course, would he know the Macro modl.)”On the future of Economics:It would be to fail in one’s responsibility to the Econ people to end this brief sketch of life in their society without a few words about their future. The prospect for the Econ is bleak. Their social structure and culture should be studied now before it is gone forever. Even a superficial account of their immediate and most pressing problems reads like a veritable catalogue of the woes of primitive peoples in the present day and age. They are poor-except for a tiny minority. miserably poor. Their population growth rate is among the highest in the world. Their land is fairly rich, but much of the natural resources that are their birth-right has been sold off to foreign interests for little more than a mess of pottage. Many of their young are turning to pot and message. In their poverty, they are not even saved from the problems of richer nations-travellers tell of villages half-buried in the refuse of unchecked modl-making and of the eye-sores left on the once pastoral landscape by the random strip-mining of the O’Metrs. It is said that even their famous Well Springs of Inspiration are now polluted. In the midst of their troubles, the Econ remain as of old a proud and warlike race. But they seem entirely incapable of “creative response” to their problems. It is plain to see what is in store for them if they do not receive outside aid.Global Policy Watch #2: Let Musk Play Global policy issues relevant to India - RSJElon Musk couldn’t have existed at any other time in human history. Because at no other point in our history would it have been possible to simultaneously be the richest person in the world, run the most innovative and bold business enterprises, troll powerful politicians and colleagues, show a fine disregard for the law (esp SEC’s laws), smoke a joint on live web TV, create asset bubbles with just a single word and also be seen by millions as a messiah. A thousand years from today just studying the life and times of Elon Musk would be enough to understand the 21st century. And this would have been true even a couple of months ago. However, that’s not enough for Musk. In the last few weeks, he has gone further. In April, he made a bid for buying out Twitter, the platform that is seen as the global public square of our times and taking it private. Of course, he bid for it at $54.20 per share because he cannot resist a ‘420 marijuana joke’ when he takes these important decisions. And since then, he’s been trolling Twitter. On Twitter. About its management, the likely bots it has as users, its policy on censoring content, its product features and on how its headquarters might be better used a shelter for the homeless. While it is tremendous entertainment for onlookers, there are those who are worried about the implications of a very rich man with strong libertarian and, often strange right-wing beliefs owning the most influential social media platform in the world. Twitter is already chaotic with bad actors manipulating the platform to trend topics, troll people and create a fake news industry that has ruined lives, influencing elections and creating just about the worst kinds of influencers in countries around the world. The initial euphoria of it providing a voice to ordinary citizens, getting rid of the gatekeepers and the hope of many more Arab Springs have been replaced by a cynicism that it is a platform that can be abused by those with more resources for their political ends. And into this chaotic world, now we will have the king of chaos, Musk, himself holding the reins. This could get really bad.Or will it?At the heart of this issue is that old question that Plato tried to answer in ancient Greece. Who should hold power in a society and how should the use of that power be regulated?There are three key concerns I read about Musk owning Twitter and it is useful to understand them a bit more.First, there are problems with Twitter today. Bots, fake news, concerted abuse by mobs and somewhat random ways of censoring voices. These issues aren’t helped by its lack of transparency – the algorithm it uses to recommend and trend topics or how it decides on clamping down on certain accounts or tweets are all shrouded in mystery. People abuse the platform for their benefit while Twitter often ends up punishing the wrong guy. Musk has zeroed in on the source of this problem. To him, the platform is optimising for the attention of the user and its algorithms are built to reinforce your biases over and over again. And no one outside of Twitter knows how the algorithm decides which biases will it reinforce and which it won’t. Over time, he fears this lack of transparency will erode trust among users and reduce the effectiveness of the algorithm because of a lack of credible challenge from the outside. He views this as an engineering problem and to quote him – “open source is the way to go” – to solve this. That sounds vague but, hey, it is Musk talking. You can trust him to find the technical solution to this.Those who oppose Musk buying Twitter are worried that this ‘engineering tech-bro’ mindset has gotten us into this mess in the first place. Musk might be good at putting rockets in space and, possibly, colonising Mars someday but solving a complex social problem is a different ball game. It requires a deeper understanding of people, their motivations and a mind that can think beyond rational expectations and incentives. Giving Musk the charge to make Twitter better is the equivalent of handing the keys of the asylum over to its inmates. That’s the argument. I’m less than convinced about this. Twitter is a technology platform. Its engagement with its users, its feature of bringing the latest information to your feed and its ability to create a network for you based on how you use it are all products of its technology. The choices it has made on technology have created it in the shape it is today which is different from say, Facebook or Reddit. If the platform encourages click-baits, reinforces biases and tribal loyalties through the like button and optimises for your attention, the solution to it cannot be to solve for human nature. That is an unsolvable problem. This is an engineering problem. Sure, as history has shown once you think you have solved it, the problem will shift. This is an ongoing process in science and every technological innovation has evolved in this way over the centuries. The solution to human mobility has over time gone from horses to cycles to cars to aircraft with each solution bringing with it newer problems. Nobody has ever contended that the real solution is for humans to develop wings.Two, there is a view that platforms like Twitter are a public good and it shouldn’t be owned by rich, powerful people like Musk. I can grudgingly admit that Twitter is like a public good. But that only means there’s a need for the state to intervene in framing guidelines on how it will be used. It doesn’t necessarily follow that it should be owned by the state. That would be a catastrophic mistake. There’s a long history of media being owned by the rich around the world. The state in most democracies has understood the criticality of media in the scheme of things and managed it well so far. Media moguls have influence but none has ever become a law unto themselves. On the other hand, the state has tried but it has not managed to stifle free speech. We have been worried about this equilibrium for a long time. As far back as 1941, Hollywood was making Citizen Kane about a powerful media owner and his outsized influence on politics and society. Media has only diversified and thrived since. Musk might suffer from a God complex. He might want to be the techno-feudal overlord of the universe. Even if he were to become one, he will still be less powerful than the state. Three, there is a belief that Musk is a canny operator and perhaps someone who understands the power of Twitter more than anyone else in this world. His reason for owning the platform is to have a free run to do things he likes to do in his spare time – troll the SEC, progressive left and other adversaries in business; pump up meme stocks or dodgy cryptocurrencies, make gains at the expense of his stupid followers and, who knows, probably build a base for some kind of a career in politics. So, Twitter is an expensive toy that he loves. He will play with it till he gets bored. At the end of it, the world will be poorer for his misadventure because Twitter is still an amazing platform for good.Should he be allowed to run a platform like Twitter to the ground because he has the money and the power? Well, maybe not. But the truth is that he has the power and the money because he has been proven right many times over. There is no divine reason for his magic. He commands trust among his millions of followers because he makes the seemingly impossible possible. Were he to take advantage of that trust to the detriment of his followers, he will begin to lose that power. Musk takes long-range bets – electric vehicles, space travel, EV batteries, hyperloop – and his credibility is the only reason why investors trust him to pull these off. He should know the perils of short-term gains at the expense of that credibility. He will not take a punt on that.There are market failures that need attention in big tech and social media businesses. Elon Musk buying Twitter won’t make this worse. These failures need policy interventions that regulate the market dominance and the information advantage these companies have. Those are the guardrails that the state and the regulators need to build. The Musk Twitter drama is a sideshow. HomeWorkRecommended podcasts, papers, and articles on public policy matters [Paper] Mihir Mahajan and Shekhar Sathe estimate additional deaths in the pandemic years by using publicly available insurance data. TL;DR - the estimates are quite close to the WHO-reported numbers. If you prefer a podcast on this topic, listen to our Puliyabaazi.[Paper] This old paper asks: Did India’s public expenditure follow the Peacock-Wiseman Hypothesis as a result of the 1962 India-China War? TL;DR - yes, partially.[Article] Over at New Things Under the Sun, Matt Clancy summarises the literature that investigates the relationship between population and innovation. The evidence suggests that bigger populations are generally better for innovation.[Podcast] This BIC Talks episode with Faisal Devji on Gandhi is top-notch. [Paper] For a libertarian critique of the UBI, read Bryan Caplan. “The UBI is a triumph of simplicity over numeracy”, he says. Of course, he is speaking from the American socio-political context. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com
Q1: I would start by asking about your GDP projection for FY23. Your projection is 7.8%, which is slightly lower than what the government projected through the Economic Survey which is 8.5%, and at par with what the RBI projected which is 7.8%. So, what is the rationale behind this growth projection of yours? Ans: >India's growth projection of 7.8% was retained because Omicron wave proved to be mild, despite the geopolitical tensions >Positivity has returned to the contact-based services >Russia-Ukraine crisis has led to significant uncertainties >Crude oil price will be in the range of $85-90 a barrel in FY23 Q2: Now, the RBI's projection for CPI inflation, for the next fiscal is 4.5%. But that again was before the recent geopolitical flare-up. Do you think that projection holds anymore? And what is your projection, given the current situation. Ans: >RBI's forecast of 4.5% inflation was made before the Russia-Ukraine crisis >RBI should recalculate inflation forecast based on the changes in crude oil, commodities and geopolitical situations >Raised inflation outlook to 5.4% for fiscal 2022-23 >In a comfortable position with food grains >Rising prices of imported edible oil will put pressure on inflation >Burden of global crude oil price rise will be shared between households, the government and oil marketing companies Q3: To what extent do you think current commodity prices in this situation will impact government's Budget targets? Ans: >With inflation going up, nominal GDP is going to be higher than what it was assumed earlier >Nominal GDP doing well is good for tax collection >It will be a challenge to shrink the subsidy bill by the proposed 26% >Govt has two options: Cut the capex or raise the fiscal deficit from its current level >Govt may not raise the fiscal deficit, so the expenditure will get reshuffled again Q4: If you could also touch upon the rupee situation – how will that impact our trade, import export. Ans: >Don't expect too much depreciation of rupee >Rupee's going to be around 76.5 for 1 USD, by March 2022-end >Forecasting a mild depreciation next year, with Rupee around 77.5 for 1 USD >Rupee's going to be volatile between 76.5 and 77.5 Q5: Do you think capex could be hit and the government would have to spend more on subsidies and other welfare measures? Ans: >If pressure continues, capex is bound to be hit >Budget's cushion, based on conservative estimates, is gone now Watch video
The Economic Survey tabled recently has projected a real GDP growth of 8-8.5% in FY23 assuming that oil prices will average $70-$75 per barrel in the next financial year. But that doesn't seem to be happening. The price of Brent crude oil crossed 96 dollars per barrel on Monday amid fears of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, with the US saying such an invasion could be imminent. However, it dropped to $94 a barrel on Tuesday after Russia's announcement that it is withdrawing some of its troops from the border with Ukraine in a possible de-escalation of tensions between the two countries. Amid all this, India's retail inflation rate accelerated to 6.01% in January, breaching the upper tolerance limit of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) after a gap of seven months. And for the 10th month in a row, the wholesale inflation is in double digits, coming in at 12.96% for January. The rural belt was worst hit as the pace of price rise touched 6.12% from 5.36% in December. While in urban areas, it was 5.91% in January, marginally up from 5.90% a month earlier. According to experts, higher edible oils component pushed food inflation. While clothing and footwear inflation also soared to 8.84% in January, up from 8.3% in December. “When you do inflation projection, you assume a crude price for the whole year, a particular price and a range of prices. If you take $95 a barrel and make a projection for the entire year you will definitely go wrong. It may go up further and come down steeply,” said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das. Economists have warned that rising oil and food prices pose a risk to inflation. But RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank's retail inflation outlook for FY23 was quite “robust”. The RBI has projected average retail inflation of 4.5% in FY23. Das reiterated that inflation momentum was on a downward slope since and the central bank had taken into account all scenarios. India is vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices as it depends on imports for more than 80% of its oil needs. Market watchers expect oil marketing companies to effect a sharp hike in petrol and diesel prices in March, once state Assembly elections come to an end. Fuel prices have remained unchanged for more than three months now despite a sharp uptick in crude prices. An RBI paper from January said that if a crude price shock hits the Indian economy the Current Account Deficit to GDP ratio will rise sharply irrespective of a higher GDP growth. And a $10/barrel increase in oil price will raise the inflation by roughly 49 basis points or increase the fiscal deficit by 43 bps as a percentage of GDP if the government decides to absorb the entire oil price shock rather than passing it to the end users. The government is hoping that crude oil prices will come down over the next few months so it won't be forced to cut excise duties to rein in inflation when oil companies pass on higher costs to customers. Given the Budget has not made any provision for a cut in excise duties in case crude oil prices remain persistently high, both the RBI and the government will find themselves in a tricky situation. Watch video
The Economic Survey 2021-22 projected the real GDP growth rate at 8-8.5% for FY23. However, both the government and the RBI have moderated growth expectations for FY23 in the short time period since then. Last week, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that the Centre's GDP deflator projection for FY23 is 3 to 3.5%. What this means is that the central government's real GDP growth projection for FY23 is in the range of 7.6 to 8.1%. This is based on the fact that the Union Budget has assumed a nominal GDP growth rate of 11.1% for FY23. GDP deflator, which is a measure of inflation, is also the difference between nominal GDP and real GDP. Also last week, the RBI projected GDP growth for the next fiscal year at 7.8% – again, lower than what the Economic Survey had projected. The Survey's growth projection for 2022-23 is based on the assumption that there will be no further pandemic-related economic disruption, withdrawal of global liquidity by major central banks will be mostly orderly, the monsoon will be normal, global supply chain disruptions will ease as the year progresses, and oil prices will be in the range of $70 to $75 per barrel. The government and the RBI are also aware of the fact that lagging private consumption could prove to be a sore point. There might also be a chance that the government has been conservative when it comes to its GDP deflator projection. Keeping the differences in the various projections aside, India will hopefully see a durable and broad-based economic recovery in FY23. However, as things stand at present, energy prices and geopolitical tensions could prove to be spoilers. Watch video
The Reserve Bank of India sprung a surprise yesterday when it struck an unexpected dovish tone and refrained from tinkering with key policy rates. With this, the repo rate was left unchanged at 4% and the reverse repo rate at 3.35% for a 10th straight policy. The Monetary Policy Committee also decided to continue with the accommodative stance as worry over growth continues to weigh. The RBI projected 7.8% GDP growth for FY23, which is slightly lower than the 8% to 8.5% GDP forecast made by the Economic Survey 2021-22. Governor Shaktikanta Das said concerns are arising from the uncertainties related to Omicron and global spillovers. Nonetheless, no immediate threat to liquidity availability and hardening of interest rates resulted in bond and stock prices surging. The S&P BSE Sensex sprinted 460 points while the NSE Nifty surged 142 points to end at 58,926 and 17,606 levels, respectively. In the money market, 10-year govt bond yields cooled off over 1% to quote at 6.7%. But, analysts fear it may be too early to cheer. “RBI expressed a very dovish outlook for inflation for FY23, forecasting it at 4.5%. This comes despite higher oil and commodity prices, growth-supporting fiscal policy, continued economic normalisation, and a distinctly hawkish Federal Reserve. This suggests that the RBI is likely to remain behind the curve, until macro circumstances warrant a shift of gears,” says Aurodeep Nandi, India Economist and Vice-President, Nomura. Deepak Jasani, who is head of retail research at HDFC Securities, too, believes the RBI's latest monetary policy may raise concerns that it is behind the inflation curve. Assuming a normal monsoon, the RBI projected retail inflation for fiscal year 2022-23 at 4.5% with Q1FY23 forecast at 4.9 per cent; Q2 at 5.0 per cent; Q3 at 4.0 per cent; and Q4 at 4.2 per cent. But analysts worry that inflation risks, especially from fuel prices, remain a concern. If inflation rises more than expected, markets will have to realign quickly, they say. As regards money market, movement in yields will have to be tracked going-forward. Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA, expect the 10-year yield to cross 7% in April 2022, once the FY2023 borrowing program kicks off. The RBI also enhanced the Debt-VRR limit from Rs. 1.5 trillion to Rs 2.5 trillion yesterday, expecting higher FPI inflows into India's debt market. While this could be an interesting support to the bond market, analysts say the inflows will have to be tracked as the existing limits haven't been breached. Overall, the RBI's dovish policy will provide near-term support to both, equities and bond yields, but global headwinds remain key risks. On Friday, reaction to the fine-print of the policy, Q3 results, and global markets' reaction to US inflation data will be the key triggers. Watch video
The government on Friday appointed 59-year-old V Ananth Nageswaran as the Chief Economic Adviser, a post which was lying vacant for the last over one month after incumbent Krishnamurthy Subramanian quit and returned to academia. Subramanian announced his decision on October 8 last year, just before the budgetary exercise for FY23 was to begin. And he demitted the office on December 17, 2021. After about four months of hunting, the government last Friday announced the name of 59-year-old V Ananth Nageswaran for the top post. An IIM graduate and former member of Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, Nageswaran has hit the ground running. Although he wasn't part of the budget making exercise and didn't author the Economic Survey, he was seen answering questions during the customary post-Economic Survey media briefing on Monday. In his first public appearance as the CEA, Nageswaran said the growth projections in the Economic Survey were conservative and the assumption that crude oil prices will average at $70-$75 a barrel through the year is realistic. Nageswaran is a man of many facets. He is a writer, author, professor, macroeconomist and a consultant. After completing his schooling and undergraduate degree in Tamil Nadu's Madurai, he earned a Post Graduate Diploma in Management from the country's top-ranked business school IIM Ahmedabad in 1985. For the next five years, he worked as a Deputy Manager at Chennai Petroleum Corporation. In 1995, he obtained a PhD in Finance from the University of Massachusetts, where his dissertation was on 'Empirical Behaviour of Exchange Rates'. His post-doctoral corporate career spanned seventeen years from 1994 to 2011 across Switzerland and Singapore. During this period, he has been a Currency Economist at UBS and head of Research and Investment Consulting in Credit Suisse Private Banking in Asia, and Head of Asia Research and Global Chief Investment Officer at Julius Baer. Nageswaran took to consulting, writing and teaching from July 2011. He has taught at several business schools and institutes of management in India and in Singapore. Currently, he is a Distinguished Visiting Professor at Krea University's IFMR Graduate School of Business, where he was also a Dean for a short while. In October 2019, he was appointed as a part-time member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister for a period of two years. He has co-authored four books - The Rise of Finance – Causes, Consequences and Cures, Derivatives, Can India Grow?, The Economics of Derivatives. He serves as Independent Director on the boards of Sundaram Fasteners, TVS Tyres and Delphi-TVS. He helped co-found the Takshashila Institution, an independent centre for research and education in public policy Nageswaran has been writing columns commenting on economic developments for 15 years. In his articles, he had criticised demonetisation but later also spoke on the effects it had in aiding formalisation. Last year, he advocated for a one-time additional tax on corporates and before the farm laws were repealed he wrote that policymakers should have wider consultations Economist Rathin Roy, the managing director of Overseas Development Institute and a former member of the Economic Advisory Council to the PM described Nageswaran as an accomplished policy professional who will bring much needed expertise back to the finance ministry. Nageswaran has taken charge at a time when household consumption continues to be stressed and job creation remains a concern. His expertise across a range of matters will help him in advising the finance minister on these challenges. And we can see the results from his primary responsibility of drafting the Economic Survey next year. Watch video
Equity markets started the Budget week with solid gains on Monday as supportive global cues, and anticipation of a populist Budget drove investors towards Dalal Street. The S&P BSE Sensex surged over 1,000 points to 58,248 levels, while the Nifty50 index moved up 300 points to 17,407 levels in intra-day deals. The indices, however, ended at 58,014 and 17,340 levels, rising 814 and 238 points, respectively. As all eyes will be on Budget proposals today, let's look at past data to know if equities could rally post the Budget or will they see profit booking? An analysis by Business Standard's Research Bureau shows that, 38 budgets have been presented since 1991. Markets, on their part, have risen and fallen almost equal number of times. The Sensex index has clocked a post Budget rally 50% of the times, while the Nifty index has ended in the green 58% of the times. Meanwhile, market reaction to Modi govt's Budget has largely been positive. Stock markets have mostly rallied strongly post the Union Budget and have risen 58% of the times. This time around, too, analysts expect bulls to give a tough fight to bears. Let's go to Gaurang Shah, senior vice-president at Geojit Financial Services to know what the markets are baking in? So, if markets were to rally today, should one sell on rise? According to the annual Economic Survey, tabled in the Parliament yesterday, India has the fiscal space to do more to support the economy, poised to wrest the title of the world's fastest-growing major one from China and keep it for at least another two years. Moreover, according to the document, gross domestic product is expected to grow by 8%-8.5% in the year starting April after likely expanding 9.2% in the current year. If one is to take cues from the Economic Survey about today's likely proposals, then the govt is expected to drive growth by widespread vaccine coverage, gains from supply-side reforms and easing of regulations, robust export growth, and availability of fiscal space to ramp up capital spending. Given this, Sampath Reddy, Chief Investment Officer at Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance says, “The Union Budget to be growth-oriented with emphasis likely to be on sectors like manufacturing, healthcare, and infrastructure. Given the governments' commitment towards climate, we expect the electric vehicles (EV) segment to get an additional boost with specific incentives for the charging infrastructure. Moreover, as the direct and indirect tax collections are picking up, we except the government to achieve its budgeted fiscal deficit target for FY22. The government has already announced National Monetisation pipeline, PLI schemes and increased outlay for capex, and we expect that the thrust to continue going forward as well.” Overall, today's proposals will be the key market drivers over the next few days with stock-specific action amid Q3 results and global cues swaying indices. Watch video
The annual pre-Budget Economic Survey, compiled by Principal Economic Advisor Sanjeev Sanyal this year, starts by highlighting India's agile policy response to the Covid-19 shock. The ‘Agile' framework is based on feedback-loops and real-time monitoring of actual outcomes, differing from the conventional ‘waterfall' strategy of introducing front-loaded stimulus packages. The Agile approach is aided by 80 High Frequency Indicators (HFIs) in an environment of extreme uncertainty such as now. The Survey reverted to the single-volume format after eight years as the two-volume format was ‘becoming unwieldy', according to Sanyal. The Economic Survey projects India's GDP to grow 8-8.5% next fiscal, supported by widespread vaccine coverage, gains from supply-side reforms, robust export growth and the availability of fiscal capacity to ramp up capital expenditure when required. The forecast is below the IMF's projection of 9%. The survey states that vaccination should not be seen merely as a health response, but as a macroeconomic indicator for now. The GDP projection is based on the assumption that there will be no further debilitating pandemic related economic disruption, monsoon will be normal, withdrawal of global liquidity by major central banks will be broadly orderly, global supply chain disruptions will steadily ease over the course of the year and oil prices will be in the range of $70-75 per barrel. While the first four assumptions seem rational, the fifth on oil prices looks hopeful as analysts expect Brent crude to average at around $80 a barrel this year or even higher due to geopolitical risks emanating from eastern Europe. Brent topped $90 last week for the first time since 2014 and may go up to $120 over the next few months. However, the Economic Survey does say that India needs to be wary of imported inflation, especially from elevated global energy prices. Interestingly, the Economic Survey uses satellite imagery to highlight India's infrastructural growth. For example, satellite photos of night-time Luminosity between 2012 and 2021 shows expansion of electricity supply, economic activity and urban expansion. Other images show the extent of urban expansion in certain localities of cities like Gurugram, Bengaluru and Mumbai over time. (4 images below) The survey acknowledges that India's economic response to the pandemic emphasised more on supply-wide reforms than on the demand side. Some of these include production-linked incentive schemes, removal of retrospective tax, liberalised guidelines for BPO sector, telecom sector reforms and revising definition of MSMEs. Whether the Budget will offer demand boosting measures such as cutting income or fuel taxes and enhancing income tax deductions will be known in a few hours. Watch video
The economy is likely to grow at a conservative 8-8.5% in the fiscal year 2022-23 and the country is geared up to face the challenges posed by pandemic, the Economic Survey tabled yesterday said. It also claimed that the economic activity has recovered to pre-pandemic level but cautioned on some risks. What does this yearly report card tells about the condition of the economy and the risks ahead? Through the Economic Survey, the government reasserted its commitment towards privatisation and strategic disinvestment of Public Sector Enterprises. It said that the sale of Air India generated disinvestment proceeds and was key in boosting the government's privatisation drive. But where the airline flies from here. What are challenges the Tata Group will face in ensuring that the Air India's flight is smooth? Over the years, markets have positively reacted to Budgets presented by the Modi-government. Last year's pro-growth Budget saw the benchmarks climbing over 5%. So, will the markets repeat their 2021 performance? Or will bears outweigh bulls today? A considerable chunk of the country's population is glued to TV sets or mobile phones on the budget day to know about the announcement on personal taxation, as it affects them directly. In the 2020 Budget, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had introduced a new tax regime. Find out more about the difference in slab rates between the new tax regime and old tax regime in this episode of the podcast. Watch video
The two most important economic documents – that is, the Economic Survey and the Budget – will set the near-term tone for the Indian stock market. Economic Survey, which essentially gauges the health of the economy, will be tabled in the Parliament later today while the Union Budget will be presented tomorrow. According to a media report, a single volume Economic Survey for 2021-22 will be tabled this time, which could project a growth of around 9% for the next financial year. In recent times, making projections for the next year, particularly for GDP growth, has become tricky. Even before Covid hit the economy, Economic Surveys in India had been way off the mark in projecting the outlook. Consider this: Of the eight surveys presented during the Modi regime so far, three predicted either a somewhat correct number or underestimated the actual growth. One was presented when the base year was changed in between. The remaining four, all presented during the past four years, were way off the mark in predicting growth numbers. Now, given that the govt's forecast pertaining to the country's growth holds supreme importance for stock market investors, these projections significantly affect the market sentiment. We have with us Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda, to understand the key data points that the Street will be tracking this time from these two documents. On their part, investors are starting off this week with lighter portfolios after a heavy bout of selling over the previous week. The BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 declined 3% last week as profit booking ahead of the Budget, along with global headwinds kept investors on the sidelines. Let's go to Business Standard's Avdhut Bagkar to know how to play the markets ahead of the Budget. Clearly, markets are at their make-or-break levels and Budget will now hold the key for the next decisive move in the indices. Apart from the Budget and the Economic Survey, Q3 earnings will keep stock-specific action alive on the Street this week. DLF, Hindustan Petroleum, Indian Oil Corporation, Sun Pharma, Tata Motors, Adani Ports, Tech M, HDFC, Titan, Paytm, Bank of Baroda, and State Bank of India are some of the prominent companies which will report their December quarter results this week. In the primary market, Vedant Fashions Ltd, which owns ethnic wear brand Manyavar, will launch its initial public offering on Friday, February 4. Globally, FII activity, oil prices, and bond yields will decide the movement in equities. Watch video
The Budget session of Parliament beginning today may well decide the future course on the Indian economy. At a time when the pandemic-battered economy is showing clear signs of recovery, the steps taken by the Centre may help it back on its feet. Today the session will start with the tabling of the Economic Survey, which serves as a precursor to the Budget. Find out about the expectations people have from this session -- will it be just stormy or productive too? The centre's plan to privatise two state-owned banks continues to be in limbo. Food and fertiliser subsidies are also going to be critical this time in Budget. Take a deep dive on their Budget estimates. Budget announcements are usually key catalysts for market trends and historical data suggest markets clock a strong post-Budget rally if it books profit ahead of it. Now, with a 3% fall prior to the Budget week, benchmark indices are testing their support levels. Get an insight on the key data points that the Street awaits from the Economic Survey and Union Budget 2022. When Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presents the budget tomorrow, all eyes will be on a document which shows total expenditure of the government. It is classified as Expenditure Budget. Find more about it in this episode of the podcast. Watch video
Top headlines Sensex gains 814 points ahead of Budget in broad-based rally Nifty PSU Bank soars 12% in four days; SBI nears record high Hotel stocks rally on improved outlook after third wave Govt okays Neelachal Ispat sale to Tata Steel Long Products; stock rises 6% Adani Wilmar IPO subscribed 17.36 times; GMP halves in a week Bulls marched on Dalal Street on Monday, a day ahead of the Union Budget, as investors eyed pro-reforms, pro-growth measures from the annual document. This came after the Economic Survey said that the Indian economy was well placed to take on the challenges of FY23. The survey projected that the country's economic growth would remain between 8 per cent and 8.5 per cent in FY23 amid wide vaccination coverage and supply-side reforms in the pipeline. For FY22, it estimated 9.2% growth. This said, the BSE benchmark Sensex rallied over 1,000 points intra-day before settling 814 points higher at 58,014. The NSE Nifty rose 238 points to end at 17,340. Both these frontline indices gained 1.4% each. In the broader markets, the BSE MidCap and SmallCap indices advanced 1.76% and 0.99%, respectively. A large part of today's rally in the headline indices was led by IT stocks like Tech Mahindra, Wipro, Infosys and HCL Tech, along with financials like the Bajaj twins and SBI, and heavyweights Reliance Industries and Bharti Airtel. On the downside, IndusInd Bank was the worst hit on profit booking after its Q3 results. Kotak Bank, and HUL were the other losers on the Sensex. Within the broader market universe, the shares of AGS Transact Technologies debuted flat on the bourses at Rs 176 apiece, compared with an issue price of Rs 175. After listing, the shares fell and closed 8 per cent lower than the issue price. Sectorally, top gainer Nifty Realty rose 3%. It was followed by the Nifty IT and PSU Bank indices, which gained 2.9% each. The shares of public-sector banks continued their upward movement for a fourth day, with the PSU Bank index gaining 12% during this period. From this pack, Canara Bank hit a 52-week high, while SBI was close to the record high it had hit on November 3. Hotel companies also rallied amid a healthy earnings outlook, as higher vaccination and lower hospitalisation rates could lead to a much stronger rebound this time than the second wave. From the sector, Lemon Tree Hotel, Indian hotels, Oriental Hotels, Chalet Hotels and Asian Hotels were the top gainers, all up between 4 per cent and 9 per cent. Further, among individual stocks, smallcap Tata Steel Long Products surged over 15 per cent intra-day on the BSE after the government approved the sale of loss-making Neelachal Ispat Nigam Ltd to the company for Rs 12,100 crore. By close of the session, it pared some of the gains and ended 6% up. MMTC Ltd, which holds a 49.7% stake in Neelachal Ispat also surged 10% on the development. In the primary market, the IPO of Adani Wilmar had been subscribed 17.36 times as of 4:30 PM on the final day, with the non-institutional investor portion seeing the highest subscription of 56.3 times, while the retail investor and qualified institutional buyer categories had been subscribed 5.73 and 3.9 times, respectively. However, last week's sell-off eroded half of the IPO's GMP. Now that translates into a listing premium of just 10-20 per cent. On Tuesday, the markets will gear up for the Union Budget for 2022-23. Additionally, auto companies may also be watched as they release their respective January sales data.
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharam is set to present the paperless Union Budget for the financial year 2022-23 at 11am tomorrow. This will be her third Budget since taking over as India's first full-time female Finance Minister in May 2019. And today at 12pm, the Economic Survey 2022 will be tabled in Parliament. The Survey acts as an annual report card of the economy and also contains suggestions to the government on policy matters. It is traditionally prepared by the Chief Economic Adviser. This year however, in the absence of a chief economic adviser, the principal economic advisor and other officials are preparing the survey. Similarly, in 2014, the Economic Survey was prepared by senior economic advisor Ila Patnaik and not by chief economic advisor who is usually the architect of the survey. Meanwhile, the government on Saturday announced Dr V Anantha Nageswaran as the new chief economic adviser of the country. The post had fallen vacant after Krishnamurthy Subramanian returned to academia after completing his three-year term on December 6 last year. The last three Economic Survey reports prepared under the guidance of Subramanian were way off the mark in predicting growth numbers. Off late, making GDP projections has become tricky. The pandemic has further complicated it. Last year's Economic Survey projected the growth rate of 11% for the current financial year. The first advance estimates put it at 9.2%. In FY20, the economy contracted by 7.3% while the survey had projected a 6-6.5% growth. A business daily -- while citing officials -- claimed that the Economic Survey could forecast the real economic growth for fiscal 2023 to be lower than the 9.2% estimated for the current financial year. Meanwhile, the Budget session starting today with the address of President Ram Nath Kovind, will be conducted in two phases. The first part will go on till February 11. And after over a month in recess, the session will resume on March 14. It will conclude on April 8. Just-concluded Winter Session of Parliament was a complete washout when it comes to economic bills. The government didn't table key bills including the one on privatisation of two public sector banks and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited. And experts believe that the government may not table them in the first half of the Budget session due to the same challenge it had faced earlier -- the elections in five states. Despite the sale of Air India, the government looks all set to miss its disinvestment target of Rs 1.75 trillion for FY22. Apart from the privatisation, the implementation of the labour codes and proposed reforms in the power sector are also lined up. Another crucial bill hanging fire is Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill, which experts believe is unlikely to be tabled in this session too. Meanwhile, apart from the employment-generating measures, the government's fund allotment for the country's healthcare sector will also be keenly watched. Last year, the government had allocated just 1.8% of the GDP to health. Opposition Congress on Friday said that it will work closely with like-minded parties during the Budget session and jointly raise matters of public importance, including farmers' issues and border dispute with China. Last year, the Budget session was cut short by 14 days in the wake of assembly elections in several states. This year too five states - Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa -- are going to polls between February 10 to march 7. With the pandemic affecting low income segments the most, near-term measures to support incomes and boost househol
The Indian market is likely to open higher on Monday as SGX Nifty50 futures were trading in the green at 17,241.20, around 7:45 am, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market, ahead of the presentation of the pre-budget Economic Survey. Tata Motors, Reliance Industries, BPCL, HPCL, Indian Oil Corporation, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, DLF, Ajanta Pharma, UltraTech Cement, Britannia, and Larsen & Toubro are some of the stocks in focus today.
This is Budget Explained from DH Radio. Answering your frequently asked questions on Union Budget 2022. The Economic Survey of India is the flagship document prepared by advisors to the finance minister which comprises the current trend and a comprehensive report card of the economy in that fiscal year. Tune in to find out more about the significance of Economic Survey.
They are the parcel boys – the key link in the supply chain of India's vast consumer goods market. But several leading brands are now threatening to push India's traditional distributors into oblivion. In November last year, lakhs of traditional distributors were up in arms against FMCG giants for letting the likes of JioMart and Udaan sell goods directly to kiranas at deep discounts. Recently, they got breakthroughs against Hindustan Unilever and Colgate Palmolive. Technology and innovations are changing the market place rapidly. From physical stores, shops have now moved into mobile apps, posing threats to businesses which are not evolving with time. But there are some sectors which are thriving without much help from technology. Bullion market is one of them. And in it, not just gold, but silver also offers good returns. After investment in silver, let us see what is happening in markets. Reliance Industries has been on an investment spree. Over the past four-years, the Mukesh Ambani-owned company has invested $5.7 billion across verticals, with nearly $2 billion being invested in 2021 alone. However, as the web of investments becomes enormous, analysts believe it's about time RIL considers a de-merger. Markets are eagerly waiting for the Union budget, which will be presented on February 1. But before the budget, the government releases the Economic Survey. It is an annual document which offers a peek into India's economic development over the previous fiscal year. Find out all in this episode of the podcast. Watch video
The country's first Economic Survey was released in 1950-51. And for the next 14 years, it was presented with the Union Budget. The trend was discontinued in 1964. And since then, the Economic Survey has been preceding the budget. It is now released a day before the budget. The Economic Survey sets the context for the Union Budget. It offers a glimpse into the trends in various sectors, like agricultural, industrial production, infrastructure, employment, money supply, prices, imports, exports. The survey traditionally serves three purposes. First, it reviews the developments in the economy over the previous 12 months. Second, it summarises the performance of major development programmes. And, third, it highlights the policy initiatives of the government. The Chief Economic Advisor is the principal author of the Economic Survey. It is later approved by the Union finance minister. Since Arvind Subramanian took over as chief economic advisor (CEA), it became a two-volume report. This practice was continued by his successor, KV Subramanian. The first volume contained chapters dealing with the future direction of the economy. This allowed the CEAs a large scope to explain their thoughts. Meanwhile, in simple terms, the second volume served as a list of developments in the Indian economy in the past year. While the second volume deals with the state of the economy and its sectors with more emphasis on the immediate issues and statistical data. However, according to a report, the 2021-22 Economic Survey might revert to one volume after eight years now. Last year's economic survey was conducted under the shadow of pandemic. And the theme of the survey was ‘Saving Lives and Livelihoods'. And this year's survey may show some economic rebound. Watch video
In the making since 2015, the Model Tenancy Act (MTA) was approved by the Union Cabinet last year in June. Almost all the states have now adopted this Act, which proposes to streamline the process of renting property. According to the new norms, the landlord and tenant will have to sign a written agreement specifying the rent, period of tenancy and other related terms. So, all the tenancy agreements will now be in writing. It proposes a three-tier quasi-judicial dispute adjudication mechanism. And no civil court will have jurisdiction over the matters. The Act also says that all the rent agreements will have to be registered with the Rent Authority. According to an estimate by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, around 11 million houses are lying vacant in urban areas as landlords are unwilling to let these properties due to the lack of protective measures in the current tenancy and rent control laws. The Economic Survey 2018 had blamed “unclear property rights, weak contract enforcement and low rental yields” for this structural problem. Owners of residential properties are reluctant to rent out their houses because they fear tenants would refuse to vacate their property when the time comes, and may not agree to changes in the rent amount as well. In the event that a tenant refuses to vacate the house, the landlord can claim double the monthly rent for two months, and four times the monthly rent thereafter. On the other hand, the Act safeguards tenants by mandating that the landlord must give three months' notice before increasing the rent, unless otherwise specified in the rent agreement. Security deposit for residential properties will be capped at two months' rent. States will have to set up a grievance redressal mechanism comprising Rent Authority, Rent Court and Rent Tribunal to provide fast-track resolution of disputes. Disposal of a complaint/appeal by the Rent Court and the Rent Tribunal will be mandatory within 60 days. All rent agreements have to be submitted to the Rent Authority. A digital platform will be set up in the local vernacular language or the language of the State/Union Territory for submitting tenancy agreement and other documents. And No civil court will have jurisdiction over matters pertaining to provisions under the Act. The Model Tenancy Act also states that the security deposit must be handed back to the rentee on the day the possession of the property is handed back to them. In case of disputes, the landlord is forbidden from cutting off essential supplies (like water and electricity). He is also restricted from entering the property during the active rental period without giving prior notice. The Model Tenancy Act may sound good in letter. However, a lot will depend on the Act's implementation by various states and Union territories. Since land and tenancy are state subjects, and since the Act suggests all states to set up dedicated courts and resolution authorities, the experience in each state could differ vastly. Watch video
This week, Kenya was downgraded from the list of high-risk areas for piracy after 12 years, KNBS finally released the 2021 Economic Survey, Bolt introduced a more expensive category of female drivers, Tanzania finally ratified the AfCFTA and Ukraine joins the list of countries to legalizeBTC. Listen to our latest episode of We Are Curious to find out how Kenya's redesignation could board well for the shipping industry, alternatives for Bolt to still guarantee the safety of its clients without introducing expensive categories, and why Eritrea remains the only country yet to ratify the AfCFTA. Listen to this and our other podcasts directly from the Hisa App available on Google Playstore and the Apple app store. This episode features: Felix Ochieng - Chief Financial Analyst, Hisa Nicole Omaya - Community Manager, Hisa Mwakaneno Gakweli - Business Journalist, Podcast Producer and Host, Hisa
The basic income conversation is alive and well in India, particularly in the wake of an analysis conducted by the The Indian Ministry of Finance's 2016–17 Economic Survey. Saksham Khosla, a Research Analyst at Carnegie India in New Delhi, discusses the Ministry of Finance's proposal, and the various issues to be tackled in considering a basic income program for India. Khosla describes the unique challenges of creating a social safety net for a country of over 1.3 billion people.
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