Podcasts about false alarms

Welcome back to Tank Talks! Host Matt Cohen is back with the one and only John Ruffolo in another no-holds-barred news rundown from the frontlines of business, tech, and politics. With Canada barreling toward an election that could reshape its economic future, and global giants like Google facing legal evisceration, this episode is packed with jaw-dropping insights.* Why the Canadian election might deliver another political deadlock and why that terrifies investors.* The secret behind Google's looming breakup and OpenAI's wild move to snag Chrome.* Inside the AI shell game: How Ottawa's $2B bet could be more smoke than fire.* Rising gold, crashing confidence: Is Bitcoin back or are the gold bugs winning?Platforms vs. Reality: Are Politicians Just Rearranging Deck Chairs? (00:03:25)Matt and John break down the policy platforms with brutal honesty, from fantasyland deficit projections to a tax-and-build housing bonanza that may never materialize.John's take: Liberal spending assumptions are based on fantasy GDP projections. Meanwhile, conservative tax relief and entrepreneurial support feel more grounded but still beg the question, “Where's the execution?”AI Reallocations or Just a Shell Game? (00:08:04)The $2 billion AI investment promised by the Liberals is under scrutiny. The Conservatives say it's a reallocation, not a cut, but John isn't sold on the ROI.John's take: Ottawa's indiscriminate tech funding might be helping foreign giants more than Canadian innovators. Real results will only come from supporting homegrown ecosystems, not flashy line items.Google Breakup Incoming? OpenAI Eyes Chrome (00:14:00)A U.S. court just found Google guilty again, this time for monopolizing ad tech. The breakup buzz is real, and OpenAI is already circling Chrome like a hawk.John's take: This antitrust reckoning is 10 years late. Chrome is key to Google's dominance, but the real threat may now be Gen Z's shift to LLM-powered search. The disruption has already begun.Sell Everything U.S.? Global Rotation or False Alarm? (00:17:25)Markets are jittery. U.S. equities are underperforming. International funds are surging. Is this the start of a broader retreat from the American financial engine?John's take: If the U.S. wobbles, where do you go? The answer might be gold, Bitcoin, or both. As fiat faith erodes, the store-of-value debate is back with a vengeance.Gold vs. Bitcoin: The Great Store-of-Value Showdown (00:18:37)Gold is soaring. Bitcoin bugs are stirring. With the U.S. dollar under pressure and investors fleeing uncertainty, we might be entering a new age of alternative assets.John's take: Gold's silent resilience is paying off again. Meanwhile, Bitcoin maxis are rallying, but in the debate? Gold is taking the lead.In a world of broken platforms, fiscal illusions, and rising geopolitical chaos, this episode is a crash course in the new rules of money, tech, and power.Connect with John Ruffolo on LinkedIn: https://ca.linkedin.com/in/joruffoloConnect with Matt Cohen on LinkedIn: https://ca.linkedin.com/in/matt-cohen1Visit the Ripple Ventures website: https://www.rippleventures.com/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tanktalks.substack.com

Finally, the False Alarm recap we've all been waiting for! Ridge joins Dayton and Carl to talk good food, good hangs, and a little bit of Age of Sigmar. 

Firefighters 49xxxx (002) False Alarms

Dr. Bjorn Lomborg is a Danish political scientist, internationally recognized author, and the president of the Copenhagen Consensus Center—a think tank that researches the smartest solutions to global challenges by applying cost-benefit analysis. He is best known for his work on environmental and development issues, where he encourages evidence-based, economically sound approaches to solving pressing global problems.Dr. Lomborg first rose to global prominence with his book 'The Skeptical Environmentalist', in which he challenged prevailing narratives about the state of the environment using rigorous data analysis. He has continued that mission through subsequent bestsellers such as Cool It, False Alarm and Best Things First, where he critiques climate alarmism while advocating for effective, scalable policies that actually help the planet and people—especially the world's poorest.Lomborg has been featured as one of TIME magazine's 100 most influential people. His work bridges the gap between environmental concern and practical policymaking, pushing for investments in areas like clean energy innovation, global health, and education, where the returns are highest.Lomborg's arguments are grounded in data and aimed at fostering constructive debate about how to create the most good with limited resources.

Ben Maller talks about why Aaron Rodgers didn't announce his Steelers deal with Pat McAfee, the newest theory on Aaron Rodgers keeping the Steelers in limbo, Tyreek Hill's latest brush with the law, Fact or Fiction, and more!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is the audio from a video we have just published on our YouTube channel – an interview with Bjorn Lomborg. To make sure you never miss great content like this, subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@spiked  European industry is in freefall, and Net Zero is to blame. Here, climate economist Bjorn Lomborg – author of Best Things First and False Alarm – explains how panic over climate change is doing far more damage than climate change itself. Swapping cheap and dependable fossil fuels for unreliable and expensive renewables costs our economies trillions, but for little environmental gain, Lomborg says. Plus, he tackles the myth of the ‘climate apocalypse' and explains why there are more polar bears than ever. Get your ticket for Brendan O'Neill's next live podcast, where he'll be joined by the brilliant Julia Hartley-Brewer, on Tuesday 15 April at 7pm BST. Sign up here: https://www.spiked-online.com/events/  Support spiked:   https://www.spiked-online.com/support/  Sign up to spiked's newsletters: https://www.spiked-online.com/newsletters/  Order Brendan O'Neill's After the Pogrom now from:

"The sky is falling! The sky is falling!"  -Chicken Little I'm sure she was a very sweet hen. If you're familiar with the original story of Chicken Little (rather than the Disney movie version), you might remember that her real name was Henny Penny. I'd guess she was sincere, cared about her neighbors, took initiative, and was well-respected. But she also tended to make assumptions, jump to conclusions, and share information without verifying its accuracy. Which, if you know how the story ends, cost her - and her feathered friends - quite dearly.  We are in week 8 of our series Hope for Today // Faith for Tomorrow. As we come to the second chapter of 2 Thessalonians, we find the young believers in the same sort of tailspin as Chicken Little's barnyard community. They've been fed misinformation and lies that have left them confused about what they thought they knew, and it's costing them their peace and hope. Can you relate?  ----------------------------------- TAKE YOUR NEXT STEP ----------------------------------- Let us know that you were watching with us and you will be entered to receive a free prize by completing our Connection Card: http://dsf.church/ecard   Give Online: https://www.simplechurchgiving.net/App/Giving/dsf Message Notes: https://www.dayspringfellowship.com/messages   Like, comment & subscribe to stay updated!   Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/dayspringkeizer Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/DayspringKeizer YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/dayspringfellowship Website: http://dsf.church   #dayspringkeizer #dayspringfellowship #2025sermon ___________________ Thanks for watching Dayspring Fellowship's worship service! At Dayspring Fellowship, we believe there is nothing more important than your spiritual growth.

It's saving lives, when it's not sending a false alarm. Hour 4 4/2/2025 full 2078 Wed, 02 Apr 2025 22:00:00 +0000 7EONoWaLsTI5OVZ07saUvvBytPXL446p news The Dana & Parks Podcast news It's saving lives, when it's not sending a false alarm. Hour 4 4/2/2025 You wanted it... Now here it is! Listen to each hour of the Dana & Parks Show whenever and wherever you want! 2024 © 2021 Audacy, Inc. News False https://player.amperw

Liberty police implements false alarm system full 2200 Tue, 01 Apr 2025 17:10:32 +0000 FaJhSalIKudCAYeovz2zmbR0w1ZRqHmO news The Jayme & Grayson Podcast news Liberty police implements false alarm system Catch each and every hour of Midday with Jayme & Grayson as they discuss the hot topics in Kansas City and around the country... 2024 © 2021 Audacy, Inc. News False https://player.amperwavepodcasting.com?feed-link

A little False Alarm preview, GW's announcement where they didn't announce anything, and a delightful butter recipe if you too are ready to shun modern society. 

In today's episode of Breaking the Cycle, Michael and Bret address why the public is being desensitized to certain weather information and why it could have dire consequences if left unchecked.

False Alarms | Son of a Boy Dad #279 -- Ad-free yapping with Harry, Adam & Francis -- Follow us on our socials: https://linktr.ee/sonofaboydad -- Merch: https://store.barstoolsports.com/collections/son-of-a-boy-dad -- SUBSCRIBE TO THE YOUTUBE #SonOfABoyDad #BarstoolSportsYou can find every episode of this show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or YouTube. Prime Members can listen ad-free on Amazon Music. For more, visit barstool.link/sonofaboydad

In today's episode, we dive into the swirling rumors about Kathleen Kennedy's possible retirement from Lucasfilm. While reports suggest she may step down by the end of 2025, some insiders say there's nothing confirmed yet. What does this mean for the future of Lucasfilm, and is Dave Filoni the right person to take over as president? We discuss all the latest developments, including Filoni's potential rise to the top. We also talk about Netflix's big move with IMAX for The Chronicles of Narnia, and how that could change the game for the studio's theatrical strategies. Plus, the Russo brothers tease a radical new approach for Avengers: Doomsday and Avengers: Secret Wars—what can we expect from the Marvel Cinematic Universe as the two films start production? Join Kristian and Clarke Wolfe for a detailed breakdown of these major movie news stories, including exclusive insights into the future of Star Wars, Marvel, and more! #starwars #lucasfilm #marvel #marvelstudios #netflix #avengers   Check Out Clarke Wolfe's Youtube Channel:    / @officialclarkewolfe    Let us know what you think in the comments and don't forget to like, subscribe, and ring the bell for more updates! ROBINHOOD: Investing involves risk. Rate subject to change. 3% match requires Robinhood Gold at $5/mo for 1 yr from first match, must keep funds in IRA for 5 years. Go to http://www.robinhood.com/boost.   EXCLUSIVE NordVPN Deal ➼ https://nordvpn.com/khshow Try it risk-free now with a 30-day money-back guarantee!!

Jan 31, 2025 – Curious how AI, rising rates, and political shifts are reshaping markets? Join Jim Welsh at Macro Tides and Financial Sense Newshour's Jim Puplava as they dive into the hit to big tech stocks this week, the ripple effects of China's AI...

Youtube Channel:  https://www.youtube.com/@theocdandanxetypodcast Book your free session directly, visit: www.robertjamescoaching.com In episode 453 of the OCD and Anxiety Podcast, host Robert James delves into the concept of the "false alarm" in OCD, exploring how our minds are often convinced that something is amiss. We frequently scan our environment for issues even when none exist, driven by a habitual need to find something to obsess over. Robert emphasizes the importance of learning to recognize these false alarms, which are at the heart of obsessive behavior. He discusses how different themes or creative thoughts can mislead those struggling with OCD, making it crucial to identify which are truly part of this cycle. Throughout the episode, listeners are encouraged to tune into their emotions rather than perform compulsions, offering a pathway to break free from the cycle. Robert also shares news of a new meditation focused on feeling difficult emotions to be released on his YouTube channel. Join the conversation as we explore ways to regain control and cultivate a positive relationship with anxiety disorders Disclaimer: Robert James Pizey (of Robert James Coaching) is not a medical professional and is also not providing therapy or medical treatment. Robert James Pizey recommends that anyone experiencing anxiety or OCD to seek professional medical help straight away to get a medical opinion and rule out other conditions or illnesses. The comments and opinions as written on this site are simply that and are not to be taken as professional medical opinions. Robert James Pizey provides coaching, education, accountability and peer support around Anxiety through his own personal experiences.        

Send us a textHave you ever faced the stress of a false alarm or the financial hit from emergency response fees? Discover essential practices to safeguard your cleaning business from these costly pitfalls. Jamie and I dive deep into alarm compliance, sharing personal stories and practical advice. From hefty fines to anxiety-prone employees, we spotlight the critical need for rigorous alarm protocols. Jamie's experiences bring to light the dramatic impacts of alarm mishandling and the stringent measures her company employs to avoid such incidents.Learn from our nerve-wracking encounter with law enforcement due to an alarm system glitch, and understand the importance of meticulous security protocols. We cover everything from the intricacies of advanced security technology to the vital management of keys and ensuring homes are restored to their proper state post-cleaning. With insights on state laws, locked key boxes, and accountability measures, this episode is your guide to maintaining a secure and efficient cleaning operation. Join us for an invaluable discussion packed with lessons to keep your business safe and sound.Up your cleaning game, join over 6000 Cleaning Business Owners most of whom are located here in the United States. It can be crowed when trying to figure out who you are going to learn from https://kleanfreaksuniversity.com/Questions? Feel free to reach out!Shannon Miller: cleaningbusinesslife@gmail.com Join my FB Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/1583362158497744YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCIjMz_-9YyiFvNVIgb61iYgTo order All-Natural Cleaning Products: www.purevergreen.comSee Shannon's latest courses: www.KleanFreaksUnversity.com

Jake's spent years looking for his place in the sun. 

Firefighters 49xxxx (003) Is Jimmy Collins Turning In False Alarms

Bill Horan talks with Paul Swartz, author of SHOCKS CRISES and FALSE ALARMS.  Paul will discuss what is macro economics, why we doubt economic predictions, how does fake news affect people's view of the economy and how long are macro economic periods.

Ben Maller talks about Shohei Ohtani toughing it out to play in Game 3 of the World Series despite his injury, if the Dodgers can beat the Yankees without Ohtani being a factor, what happened to Aaron Judge, and much more!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to the Identity Theft Resource Center's Weekly Breach Breakdown for October 25th, 2024. I'm Timothy Walden. Thanks to SentiLink for their support of the ITRC and this podcast. Each week on this podcast, we look at the most recent events and trends related to data security and privacy. Today, we'll discuss threat detection tools and how their overwhelming number of alerts is inundating security teams. Follow on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/idtheftcenter/ Follow on Twitter: twitter.com/IDTheftCenter

When a woman gets sick with a mystery illness during the height of the COVID pandemic, she fears her holiday season will be ruined. But as her entire family starts getting sick one by one, a lousy Christmas is the least of her worries.Follow MrBallen's Medical Mysteries on Amazon Music or wherever you get your podcasts. New episodes publish for free every Tuesday. Prime members can binge episodes 49-56 early and ad-free on Amazon Music.Wondery+ subscribers can listen ad-free--join Wondery+ in the Wondery App or on Apple Podcasts.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

When COVID-19 hit, many predictions were made about how the global pandemic would impact the macroeconomy. Some of those predictions were accurate, some of them turned out to be false alarms. But when business leaders need to make strategic decisions with macroeconomic forecasts in mind, how do they tell the truth from the doomsaying? Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is the global chief economist at Boston Consulting Group. He also leads the BCG's Center for Macroeconomics and regularly contributes to publications like the Harvard Business Review and Fortune.com. His book, Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk delves into strategic ways business leaders can assess macroeconomic risk in the face of events like a global pandemic, war, or even presidential elections.Philipp and Greg discuss the necessity for today's executives to understand the macroeconomy, a new approach to judging macroeconomic risk, and why conventional models of the past might not be the best predictor for the macroeconomy's future. *unSILOed Podcast is produced by University FM.*Show Links:Recommended Resources:Ludwig von MisesFriedrich HayekJohn Maynard KeynesThe Phillips Curve Thucydides TrapGuest Profile:Professional Profile at Boston Consulting GroupLinkedIn ProfileHis Work:Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic RiskEpisode Quotes:Technology fuels productivity growth31:53: What's important to recognize is that technology is only the fuel of productivity growth. That's what we call in the book [Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms]; it's the fuel, but you also need the spark. You need firms to actually embrace the technology and put it to use. And the spark—that's the tight labor market. When the availability of labor is low or when the price point is too high, that's when you first nudge firms and later force firms to replace their labor needs with technology.How are leadership and macroeconomics connected?06:30: Most leadership is about coming to a conviction of what the future will be like and adjusting actions around that conviction. Macro is no different, and the more we treat macroeconomics as a science, the worse the outcome will be.How do we decide the optimal amount of history we ought to incorporate into our way of thinking about the world?25:40: History has great case studies. It shows often coherent drivers that illuminate important parts of the story. But history is always idiosyncratic, and so applying it, extrapolating, or copy-pasting from history is exceedingly difficult, all the way to the sort of inevitability of the great power war. It's simply not true that a rising rival power always leads to great power conflict. I mean, most obviously, Britain was displaced by the U.S., and it didn't come to a head, or like a war or conflict in that sense. So, if you look at the patterns of some of these predictions, it fails right there in the sense that there never is a sort of template-like use of history. All of it is rather idiosyncratic, and that makes it both beautiful and treacherous as an analytical tool.Navigating distractions with a strategic perspective49:19: It's so easy to be distracted and go down every rabbit hole the financial press will lay out for you. Every data point is spun into disaster. For every true crisis, many false alarms. And how do we learn to navigate that with more calm and, frankly, a better experience? Well, it's by learning about that more strategic picture of how the thing works.

If you're feeling overwhelmed by all the talk of recessions, inflation, and economic chaos, you're not alone—but you don't have to navigate it blind. Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Managing Director, Partner, and Global Chief Economist at Boston Consulting Group, and co-author of "Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms," is here to help leaders cut through the noise. In this episode, Philipp explains why leaders should avoid the Master Model Mentality, which is the mistake of relying too heavily on one-size-fits-all economic models. He shares tips for recognizing false alarms or overblown predictions about economic disasters that often never come true—and how to avoid getting caught up in doom mongering or the constant focus on worst-case scenarios. We'll also explore his concept of Economic Eclecticism, a practical approach for leaders to draw on insights from various fields to make better decisions. Philipp sheds light on the perpetual tightness in the labor market, which means demand for workers is likely to stay high even in uncertain times, and the deflationary effect of technology, showing how advancements like AI can reduce costs and increase purchasing power. Plus, we'll tackle whether the American Dream is really dead or just in need of a new perspective. Learn how to stay calm, curious, and confident, even when the headlines are screaming disaster.   ________________ Start your day with the world's top leaders by joining thousands of others at Great Leadership on Substack. Just enter your email: ⁠⁠https://greatleadership.substack.com/

9-16 Niagara Wheatfield False Alarm Presser bonus 150 Mon, 16 Sep 2024 19:01:21 +0000 H9qD75C191qaqc1Q0kynk7YNA7EpYqzp news WBEN Extras news 9-16 Niagara Wheatfield False Alarm Presser Archive of various reports and news events 2024 © 2021 Audacy, Inc.

Three dogs were removed from a Fond du Lac home that was on fire.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bjorn Lomborg is the president of the Copenhagen Consensus Center and has authored several bestselling books including "The Skeptical Environmentalist", "False Alarm" and recently “Best Things First.”    In this episode of World of DaaS, Bjorn and Auren discuss:The most efficient policies to save livesEvaluating charitable ROI The real costs of climate change mitigationSweden vs DenmarkLooking for more tech, data and venture capital intel? Head to worldofdaas.com for our podcast, newsletter and events, and follow us on X @worldofdaas.  You can find Auren Hoffman on X at @auren and Bjorn Lomborg on X at @BjornLomborg.Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)

Shepherd's Charm: for King David (- to be sung to the tune of / Tribute to: False Alarm by The Weeknd) Original song created by: Abel Tesfaye, Ahmad Balshe, Ben Diehl, Emmanuel Nickerson, Henry Walter, & Martin McKinney Lyrics: King David David David He went through lions' brawls to protect his sheep Bravo He went from an anointed shepherd boy To King Saul's private musician Whoa He killed Goliath Became a giant slayer After flinging his stone from his sling It's true It's true The women so impressed That songs, for him, they'd write Irritated the fire out of King Saul Until murderous became his plight He got angry and hurt Until David's execution burned in his eyes And he made excuse After excuse But David excelled at cave dwelling To save his life He had to learn how to hide Also a mastermind in battle fighting This Philistines' King Achish He always pacified Started up his own army inadvertently Still refused to kill God's appointed King Repaid Saul's evil with God's grace and generosity David was full of shepherd's charm ~ Shepherd's charm Say, say, say Shepherd's charm Pray, pray, pray Shepherd's charm Say, say, say That charm ~ Shepherd's charm Say, say, say Shepherd's charm Pray, pray, pray Shepherd's charm Say, say, say, say Cha cha cha, cha charm Only one best friend, Jonathan But had many concubines and brides He was married to Michal, Ahinoam, and Abigail Before Bathsheba became his wife Uriah, in his army of 30 In his worst moment, he put a hit out of his favorite Hittite Took years to be forgiven Forgiven Used the urim and thummim Asking God to see Before he pursued battles He spent time praying and praising He was a good shepherd to his people He united a whole country In God's trust In God's trust Plus David excelled at song writing To decompress He was a harp player mastermind In leading his country He protected his fellow Israelites Had many sons, but chose Bathsheba's son Solomon to lead To someday build God's temple And write Proverbs and Ecclesiastes While David wrote Psalms about life, death, and the in-between David was full of shepherd's charm ~ Shepherd's charm Say, say, say Shepherd's charm Pray, pray, pray Shepherd's charm Say, say, say That charm ~ Shepherd's charm Say, say, say Shepherd's charm Pray, pray, pray Shepherd's charm Say, say, say, say Cha cha cha, cha charm He stopped to sing About the God above His lyrics are now our treasures He wasn't embarrassed about dancing before his people for God Every kind of storm, he learned to weather ~ Shepherd's charm Say, say, say Shepherd's charm Pray, pray, pray Shepherd's charm Mmm-mmm, mmm-mmm Shepherd's charm Mmm-mmm, mmm-mmm Shepherd's charm Mmm-mmm, mmm-mmm Shepherd's charm Cha, cha cha cha, charm David ~ David ~ David ~ David ~ End Tribute written by Melissa SmithBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/mel-s-music--3634451/support.

A walking episode, featuringego obliteration and recoveryfear does not keep you safethe "not so bad" trickyou're (I'm) acting like it's life or death and it ain'tdo I... learn to shuffle?This episode mentionsSarah J. Maas: https://sarahjmaas.com/ Shuffle inspo: https://youtu.be/emcVExxKJFUSolo jazz competition (see what I mean? I was in the crowd and saw this one live!): https://youtu.be/Fx77E7m85IcOH MY WORD I'm in this one, #73 hiding in the back: https://youtu.be/x2rcgBJbUnc

Two pedestrians were killed over the weekend in separate auto accidents, one in Pleasant Grove and another in Oak Cliff; also, reports of gunshots at Town East Mall turned out to be chairs being thrown in the food court; nearly 200 protesters outside Dallas Black Dance Theater cry “Firing dancers? Not the answer” and “Union busting is disgusting!” ; and the Texas Rangers are coming to terms that a return to the playoffs doesn't seem to be in the offing this year. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In our highly globalized economy, exogenous shocks and unsettling headlines are everywhere. It makes sense that market forecasters should be biting their nails, but so often their prophecies of doom prove completely false. Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is a proponent of “rational optimism.” He believes there's a calmer, more measured way of going about financial and economic analysis that sets us up to be more flexible to the highs and lows of the economic events. Today on Faster, Please! — The Podcast, I talk with Carlsson-Szlezak about why an overreliance on models — and a tendency to assume the worst — can impair our ability to roll with unexpected events and make the best of them.Carlsson-Szlezak is the global chief economist at Boston Consulting Group, and leads the Center for Macroeconomics at their Henderson Institute. He is the co-author of the new book, Shocks, Crises and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk.In This Episode* Optimism during a polycrisis (1:39)* AI employment panic (7:47)* Risk-assessment strategy (13:08)* Federal Reserve predictions (19:44)* Impending shocks? (23:41)Below is a lightly edited transcript of our conversationPethokoukis: Philipp, welcome to the podcast.Carlsson-Szlezak: Thanks for having me.Optimism during a polycrisis (1:39)It seems as if there are multiple challenges facing the world and the global economy simultaneously. People described it as a “polycrisis,” and it could be everything from trying to navigate economies to a soft landing after a bout of inflation; part of it, I guess, is the big rise in debt; we have war in Europe; maybe, eventually, war in Asia over Taiwan; and, of course, climate change; aging population; falling birth rates; and some people seem to view AI as more of a threat than a positive, it's going to take jobs, and perhaps other bad things. If I've given a sensible description of the world, how can one be a “rational optimist” in a world of polycrisis?Just taking maybe two of your examples: The soft landing that was supposed to be impossible, remember that? We need, what was it, six percent unemployment for how many years to bring inflation down? So clearly that didn't pan out like the pessimists said. Or think about the war in Ukraine that you mentioned, which, of course, is the tragedy, but the fact is that there is no recession in the Eurozone so far. The fact is that industrial production has held up rather well, even in the heartland of industrial production in Germany. So real industrial output is actually remarkably resilient. Overall, there's little doubt that there are many, many risks. There are crises, but, more often than not, we're focusing on the tail ends of the distribution and pretend that those risks are at the very center of the risk distribution.It sort of reminds me — it's not a perfect analogy — of where we were in the early 1990s. I suppose you can always point to, and maybe this is part of your point, if you want to focus on bad news, the world will give you plenty of bad news to focus on. But I remember at the beginning of the 1990s, very bad recession here in the United States, a lot of concerns about the ability for rich economies to grow quickly. Again, debt was an issue, and though, looking back, it may seem like, wow, people should have been really excited: end of the Cold War, there was a lot of uncertainty what would happen to the former Soviet Union, a lot of talk back then about suitcase nukes, who knew what was going to happen in the world? And of course, all of this kind of concern and uncertainty led right into a big economic boom.So to kind of get back to what you were saying, it seems to me that, rather than being rational optimists, we're sort of naturally irrational pessimists.Yeah, but we shouldn't be. I think your example of the '90s and what the mid- and late '90s delivered, I think is not a bad analogy for what I think will play out in the 2020s, the rest of the decade. We're in an “era of tightness,” is what we call it in the book, which is really a structural condition of the labor market. Lots of people think that shortages in the labor market are a byproduct of Covid, but that's not true. The labor market turned tight already in 2017, so, in technical language, that's when unemployment dropped below U*. Covid was an interruption of this tightness. Unemployment went to almost 15 percent, and then it came down just as fast, but we are in this era of tightness, and I think it will persist.To be clear, even if and when you get another recession, you will return to a tight stance. And there are a lot of silver linings that come with eras of tightness: It translates into better real wage growth, it nudges and forces firms do capital-for-labor substitution, it pushes them towards the technological frontier in their respective areas, and all of that should lead into some boost of productivity growth. I'm not of the kind where we're predicting this big jump in productivity growth, I think that's too hyped, but I do believe that the structural tightness, which is almost like a spark to the fuel of technology, I think that will push gradually and measurably over the years to come.And the driving forces of that tightness are what?We have a number of things going. Essentially, you had a mismatch of demand of supply already in the late '10s, as I described, so there's a supply issue, we don't have enough labor supply. You have certain forces on the demographic side that constrained that. And I think often we hear the story that AI is going to produce so much unemployment that there will be mass unemployment, and I don't believe any of this. I think that will play out very differently. Historically, technology has never given us structural or technological unemployment. On the contrary, technology is the deflationary force in the medium- and long-run. Firms that can deliver cost savings, they can lower prices, they will do so to grab market share. That is a real income boost for consumers. So when their real incomes grow, they redeploy that gained real income to new services, new goods purchase and consumption, and that leads to new employment. And so I think, essentially, you will remain with a story where labor is tight, and that is the defining underpinnings of what's coming. Today people don't remember that even in the 2010s, I think it was Bill Gates, he wanted a robo-tax, a robot tax. Because why? Because automation was taking over the assembly lines and we're going to have to provide for all these people who are going to lose their jobs! Well, where are we today? Near record-low unemployment. And this is in a line of a long tradition where Nobel Prize winners, and technologists, and politicians, they've all predicted technological unemployment.AI employment panic (7:47)I wanted to talk a bit about AI labor, since you brought it up. If you don't think mass-unemployment is a valid concern, could there be other downsides from deployment of generative AI in an economy? Could it be, instead of higher employment, might it just be greater inequality? Maybe, before, we had technology hurting blue-collar workers; certainly there's a lot of white collars worried about it. I was just reading a story in the New York Times — all of these people in Hollywood are just terrified, whether they're doing special effects, or they're sound editors, they're all terrified that their white-collar jobs are going away. So do you see, in the near term, any downside from AI?In macro there's always this tension between the aggregate, which is what macroeconomics is about, and then the distribution of experiences under the hood of macro, if you will. So there will be winners and losers, and there will be those that are harder hit than others, but I think when you look at the aggregate, you add it all up the net-net, I don't anticipate this being a structural or technological unemployment situation.To go to the micro level, you can take the other side of that argument, too. This is not a big area of research for me, so I'm straying outside of my field of expertise here, but plenty of people have argued that perhaps AI will give a lift to those least-skilled. Why? Because AI is a companion for them that makes them more productive and allows them to create more value, and therefore to be paid better. So I think the jury is out on that.I don't anticipate a smooth ride where everyone will be a winner and everything will be just plain sailing. Of course this is disruptive, of course there will be gyrations, but the story about technological unemployment's been told for so long. Today people don't remember that even in the 2010s, I think it was Bill Gates, he wanted a robo-tax, a robot tax. Because why? Because automation was taking over the assembly lines and we're going to have to provide for all these people who are going to lose their jobs!Well, where are we today? Near record-low unemployment. And this is in a line of a long tradition where Nobel Prize winners, and technologists, and politicians, they've all predicted technological unemployment.There's a nice story with Wassily Leontief, a Nobel Prize winner in economics. He said in the '70s that human labor was going to go the way of the horse after the introduction of the automobile. Well, 50 years on, we're here with very tight labor markets. And Kennedy was worried about it, too, and others before him. And so I think we have to point to something that's truly different about AI to tell that story. I think we can potentially find some reasons that are genuinely different about AI, but before we all become hysterical about it, I think we should take a deep breath.Does it strike you as odd that, in a world of low unemployment and, if you're correct, perhaps a longer-term structural tightness, that it's at this moment that people are very worried about technological unemployment, it's at this very moment that they're very worried about immigration coming in and taking jobs. You would think these would be concerns at periods of very high unemployment: people standing in line around the block to get a job, but that's not where we're at. Yet the public mood seems to not be in sync with that.I think that's a good observation, I don't have a great explanation for it. The technology that's on display is impressive, it is novel, and what's different, generally, is that it makes a credible promise to impact the service economy. In our book, the way we position the slump of productivity growth has little to do with high debt and all those explanations that are occasionally fashionable. It has a lot to do with the fact that the US economy transitioned from being a physical economy to a service economy. And in the physical economy, the production of goods, you always had pretty respectable productivity growth, including the last few decades. But because of this mix shift into services where you did not have the technology to make progress on the productivity side, this mix shift dragged down aggregate productivity growth. If you have zero or very little productivity growth in services, which is like 65, 70 percent of the economy, and you have very high productivity growth and the part that is 30 or 35 percent of the economy, well the blended average is going to be low. And so, as we now have productivity growth promises from AI and services, I think a lot can change there. Again, not in a step change way, this is not like flipping a switch, it's going to be hard slog, and incremental, and cumulative, but something will happen there.There's plenty of risk out there. New crises will come and happen, but for every true crisis, there are many false alarms, and that is something that I think we need to internalize more, and that is something that can help us see risk a little more calmly and in a measured way.Risk-assessment strategy (13:08)Just to take a quick step back: Describe your process for assessing risk. Where do you begin? What are the factors? Do you have a fundamental baseline model of the way the world works? How does that process start and work for you?The way we go about risk in the book is to say macroeconomic risk should be viewed both as the downside, which is how we commonly view risk, like a recession, or even a structural downside like a deflationary depression — these are downsides. But for practitioners, risk is also hidden in potential upside if you miss out on it. And both the downside and the upside, they come in two flavors: tactical, short-term stuff, cyclical stuff; and the more structural strategic kind, like shifts that happen over longer periods of time. And so we like to think of macro risk in those four flavors: the short, the long term, and the upside and the downside, if you willGenerally when we look at risk, it's very seductive and tempting to focus on bad outcomes and then start analyzing how bad will it be and how quickly they're going to happen. In most situations, it pays off to take a step back, and take a deep breath, and say, “Well, how is the system constructed? What are the drivers? What is the history of this thing?” and an important question, “What would it take to get that outcome from the edges of the risk distribution? What does it take to get there?” Too often in public discourse, we jump straight to the tails of the risk distribution. We're immediately obsessing with the cliff edge and the fall into economic death, and then we're pretending that that risk outcome, which is part of the distribution, so we can't ignore it, but we're pretending that the edges of the distribution are the very center.And so what we do in the book for a number of areas of risk in the real economy, the financial economy, and the global economy, we go over and over again into these approaches of asking, “How is this thing constructed? What are the drivers? What do you have to believe for the truly bad outcome?” There's plenty of risk out there. New crises will come and happen, but for every true crisis, there are many false alarms, and that is something that I think we need to internalize more, and that is something that can help us see risk a little more calmly and in a measured way.How well did markets, investors, economists — how well was their risk-assessment process in 2020, given where we are today? My guess is that the global economy is better in 2024 than people thought in February, or March, or April of 2020 as the pandemic was kicking in. Did we do a good job assessing risk and reward back then?No. Public discourse did a terrible job at that. The conventional wisdom and received wisdom in March and April, May, even June, July, and even August, the summer, when you had the first signs of recovery, the conventional wisdom was: This is worse than 2008, and this could be as bad as the Great Depression. And we have a great collection of headlines that we keep, there are lots of them in the book as well. It was, in my mind, a prediction failure. Why? Because what happens is that a lot of the commentary, a lot of the thinking, was too model-based, what we call “master-model mentality” in the book.So how do you project a recovery, typically? You look at the unemployment rate as a proxy for the health of the economy, and if you have a high unemployment rate and a recession, well, it can take a long time to bring that down. After 2008, it took the better part of the 2010s to bring unemployment down, and you had “only” (in quotation marks) unemployment of 10 percent after the Global Financial Crisis. Now with Covid, you almost went to 15 percent. So the models extrapolated outside their empirical range. They said, “Well, if it took almost a decade to bring down this unemployment rate after 10 percent unemployment, then after 15 percent unemployment, well it's going to take even longer.” Hence, the narrative of “worse than 2008,” “as bad as the 1930s,” and blah, blah, blah.Even at the time, you could ask exactly these questions, and I'm not saying this with hindsight bias. We did a piece on March 28th, 2020 in Harvard Business Review where we did exactly that thought experiment. We said, “What does it take for this to be a structural downgrade for the US economy? What does it take for to be worse than 2008?” You're going to need to see damage on the supply side of the economy. You're going to need to see the downgrading of the labor market of a window of capital investment that isn't happening, and the loss of skills, et cetera. And we asked, “Well, how likely is that?” And, of course, it comes down to stimulus. Of course it does, and it comes down to how innovative, fast, and big are we in backstopping the real economy? And we were. And so even in March — and this is shelter-in-place phase, right? This is not even sort of the full lockdown. Even then, you could ask sober questions about very bad risks. And if you did that, you arrived at answers that weren't predictive in “this will happen” at a point forecast level of accuracy. But there was clearly a path and a narrative in March 2020 that was consistent with what actually happened: the tightest recovery on record, and a US economy that was not pushed off its trend path. So after 2008, the US economy was actually pushed off its prior trend path, never made it back in terms of what the trend was, did make it back in terms of growth rates after 2008, but it never made this levels recovery in that sense. All of that was avoided in 2020, and you didn't have to be a magician to at least entertain the possibility that that was a meaningful part of the outcome distribution.Federal Reserve predictions (19:44)Speaking of models, how has the Fed's model performed? Which is another way of saying, how has the Fed performed, and continues to perform?In the recent inflation surge, et cetera? I think the Fed has taken too much flak for what happened in the inflation spike. The inflation spike, by the way, again, was immediately spun into a structural inflection point, the 1970s narrative, off to the races, wage price spirals, all that nonsense. It was an idiosyncratic mismatch of demand and supply. It was an overshoot in consumption following stimulus, and you had the supply chain crunch, and then you had a number of exogenous shocks that nobody could foresee, and those who like to take credit for having predicted the spike, they didn't foresee the Ukraine war, the shock in oil that followed, and many other of the things that played into the spike. The bigger story, though, is quite simply that, as this mismatch of demand and supply unwound, inflation also came down pretty fast.Now, back to the Fed: Yes, there were slow in responding. Would it have been better for them to go early, perhaps, yes, let's say yes. But at the same time, the idea that they would fail to step up and act, and reign this in, and stand by and watch this whole thing go to hell. I mean that was never credible. And they did step up, and they did what they had to do, and I think also attempting the soft landing was the right thing. People at the time did say, “We need a draconian recession right now to remove all the risk of a regime break in inflation!” Well, you would've cut short a really tight labor market that has a lot of real wage gain that delivers a lot of good things for particularly the bottom of the labor market. So it was the right call to attempt a soft landing rather than saying, “Look, we're going to cut this cycle short right now to remove any risk of inflation spiraling out of control.” They did the right thing. They're successful at it. The soft landing is a success. We're well into it. And so I give them more credit.Is that what you think is the biggest mistake people are making, that they're still asking, “What about the soft landing?” And what you're saying is, “We're already into it. You sort of missed it. It happened. You're still looking for it.”Every so often you still see the headline, “Are we going to get a soft landing?” And I'm like, “Well, let's just take a step back.” What is a soft landing? The task was to cool down the labor market, best seen through the eyes of job openings, to cool that down without pushing up the unemployment rate. These two are mirror images of each other. When firms stop hiring, they usually also start firing, so we had to pull off this trick: You stop hiring, but you don't start firing.That was the soft landing. That's the definition of a soft landing, nothing else. And that is what happened: Job openings are down more than three-and-a-half million or so — don't nail me on the decimal — and the unemployment rate is up a little, but, as you and I know, the unemployment rate is not up because of firings. The unemployment rate is up for compositional and participation reasons. So if that is not a soft landing, at least, I would call it the second of three stages, if you will, I don't know what it is. And back to the topic of headlines, most of them are just confusing people more than they're helping them. It's always nice to write something clickbaity that people will be scared of and think this is the cliff edge. How about a headline: “Wow, this is a really great soft landing! This is remarkably good!” Why don't we acknowledge that for a moment?You can always speculate. You can speculate on, for example, exogenous shocks. Covid is an exogenous shock, and there are others: There are solar flares, and there are new pandemics, and there are things that can do immediate damage, and you can spend millions of dollars on models, and they simply won't capture that exogenous risk. Impending shocks? (23:41)Yeah, I mean, the name of the book is Shocks, Crises and False Alarms. As I look over the rest of this decade, if you take the most bullish and extravagant predictions about AI, it's not clear to me what the economy looks like a decade from now. Again, if you take the most bullish kind of [view]: we get the human-level AI and all that. So there's that.I also am not quite sure what the world looks like if some of these worst-case scenarios with Taiwan, and the US, and China, because that seems to me to be so potentially bad, I don't want to think about it. I don't know what the global economy looks like on the other side.What are the big risks, or the things which you believe pose the greatest risk of disruption? Disruptions are going to be good and bad. If you're really worried about AI, that must mean AI is very powerful, it can do a lot of good things, too. So what out there do you really worry about that the disruption will be just bad and have far more downside?You can always speculate. You can speculate on, for example, exogenous shocks. Covid is an exogenous shock, and there are others: There are solar flares, and there are new pandemics, and there are things that can do immediate damage, and you can spend millions of dollars on models, and they simply won't capture that exogenous risk. So that's one story.Geopolitics, since you mentioned it, a third of the book, roughly, the third part is about those types of risks, and they can be devastating, there's no doubt about it; but would you build a central case around this and make that the base case and expectation of how to view the future? Geopolitics is extremely treacherous when it comes to translating its impact on the economy. It's fascinating to me often how little the complexity is acknowledged and understood, and, in the book, we use an example juxtaposing a start of World War I and World War II.So when World War I breaks out, the Dow is down 10 percent, they close it for 136 days, and when they reopen it, it's down another 20 percent. Exactly as you would expect, right? It makes a lot of sense, a world war and the market's in the gutter. Yet, when World War II breaks out in '39, the market jumps 10 percent and stays up. Why? It ends the Great Depression, it puts to use labor, it has capital expenditure and investment, and it singlehandedly ends a decade of malaise.And there is a silver lining to this, and all of this doesn't sit well with how we want to think and should also think about geopolitics, which is in humanitarian terms, and also values and idealistic views. All of this is true and correct, but if we are to assess the impact on the economy, we are going to have to restrain some of these instincts, and we're going to have to say, what are the transmission channels from geopolitics to the real economy, to the financial economy, and to the institutions that we have in place that govern our economy? What are those transmission channels? And often, the bar is higher than you think.Just think about it, the Ukraine war. It's left no mark on the US economy at all, virtually. Why? Because the real linkages weren't there; virtually no trade into this part of the world, either Ukraine or Russia. The financial linkages weren't really there; it's not like balance sheets of US banks were impaired by shutting off that part of the world. And on the institutional side, we can discuss sanctions, and we can discuss using the US dollar as a means of punishing Russia, and all that. But essentially, once you think soberly about, well, how is that shock supposed to transmit to the economy? Well, it looks a lot different.The same could be said about the tragedy in the Middle East. The oil price is lower than before the attack on Israel, right? If you look at futures and forward pricing, or the price of insurance against swings in the oil price, it's lower today than before the attack on Israel and before the retaliation that Israel enacted. So any of these geopolitical risks and hotspots, they are to be taken seriously. I'm not saying they don't matter, but when we extrapolate from them straight to the economy, it more often goes wrong than it goes right.And a final thought: I'm not a Taiwan and China watcher, but one thing that's also clear to me, since you mentioned the unthinkable and the worst-case scenario, my next question would be, okay, what shape would that take? Would that be a blockade? Would that be an actual invasion? Would it be something that involves airlifting semiconductors out of the island? Would that be . . . There's a myriad ways of how such a thing could play out. It'd be a big shock, and terrible, but I can't say with confidence what it would do linearly to an economy like the US economy. It would come down to the details of that.Faster, Please! is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit fasterplease.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Andy Tanner interviews Paul Schwartz, the author of "Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Economic Risk." They discuss the importance of embracing uncertainty in economics and investing, avoiding dogmatic thinking, and using an eclectic approach to understand the complexities of the financial landscape. Schwartz shares his insights on topics such as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the sustainability of fiscal policy in the United States, and the risks posed by financial leverage and interdependence. The conversation also touches on the challenges of quantitative analysis, the pitfalls of the "master model mentality," and the value of learning from generalized principles rather than seeking a single, definitive solution.

Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Boston Consulting Group's Global Chief Economist, joins the Inside Economics team to share his views on the economy and discuss his newly published book. He makes the case that macroeconomic threats are intensifying and can no longer be ignored by decisionmakers. He also provides a nifty framework for how to assess the seriousness of these threats and not get caught up in the doom and gloom that often characterize them. Today's Guest: Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak - Global Chief Economist, Boston Consulting Group, Click here to learn more about Philipp Carlsson-SzlezakClick here for Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak's book Guest Host: Matt Colyar - Assistant Director, Moody's AnalyticsHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is Boston Consulting Group (BCG)'s Global Chief Economist and a managing director and partner in the firm's New York office. Paul Swartz is Senior Economist and executive director at BCG. He co-leads the Center for Macroeconomics at the BCG Henderson Institute in New York. They have recently published a new book, ‘Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk'. In this podcast, we discuss why there are so many false alarms on recessions, models vs eclectic approaches, how will AI impact economic growth, and much more.    Follow us here for more amazing insights: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/ https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive

In Episode 370 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, the Global Chief Economist at BCG and the author of “Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms,” about how to assess macroeconomic risk without relying on broken models, pervasive doom-mongering, and whipsawing data prints that have little to do with the structural drivers of economic and financial change. The shocks and crises of recent years are a rude awakening for executives and investors who have spent the last 40 years operating in a relatively benign macroeconomic and political environment. This period of geopolitical convergence characterized by increased trade and capital flows, lengthening business cycles, declining interest rates, and stable inflation is over, forcing corporate leaders and investors alike to recognize that macroeconomic risk is now something that needs to be actively managed. In the first hour, Demetri asks Philipp to explain his core framework of economic eclecticism, which relies on contextual flexibility, situational judgment, and rational optimism that neither ignores tail risks nor drags them to the center of the distribution. They examine four case studies and their associated narratives to help us understand why so many predictions fail to materialize and how a more eclectic approach to macroeconomic risk assessment could have helped investors and business leaders avoid these pitfalls and take advantage of the economic and financial opportunities created by these events in real-time.  In the second hour, Philipp and Demetri discuss the role of government and central bank stimulus as a variable that needs to be actively managed by investors and business executives. They also discuss how to assess the risks associated with a U.S. government debt crisis, the integrity of the U.S. Dollar as a global reserve asset, and how to assess the prospects of technologically induced productivity growth, including AI-driven improvements to a service-oriented economy like the U.S. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 07/01/2024

Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk by Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Paul Swartz https://amzn.to/3zruzcg An essential new guide to navigating macroeconomic risk. The shocks and crises of recent years - pandemic, recession, inflation, war - have forced executives and investors to recognize that the macroeconomy is now a risk to be actively managed. Yet unreliable forecasting, pervasive doomsaying, and whipsawing data severely hamper the task of decoding the landscape. Are disruptions transient and ephemeral—or permanent and structural? False alarms are costly traps, but so are true structural changes that go undetected. How can leaders avoid these macro traps to make better tactical and strategic decisions? In this perspective-shifting book, BCG Chief Economist Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak and Senior Economist Paul Swartz provide a fresh and accessible way to assess macroeconomic risk, and a corrective to prevailing thinking and practice. Casting doubt on conventional model-based thinking, they demonstrate a more powerful approach to building sound macroeconomic judgment. Using incisive analysis built upon frameworks, historical context, and structural narratives - what they call "economic eclecticism" - the book empowers readers with the durable skills to assess continuously evolving risks in the real economy, financial system, and the geopolitical arena. Moreover, the authors' richer and more nuanced approach reveals that the all too common narratives of economic collapse and decline are often false alarms, while the fundamental strengths of our current "era of tightness" become visible. With rational optimism rather than gloom, Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms speaks to the key financial and macroeconomic controversies that define our times - and provides a compass for navigating the macroeconomy. Rather than relying on blinking dashboards or flashy headlines, leaders can and should judge macroeconomic risks for themselves.About the author Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is BCG's Global Chief Economist and a Managing Director & Partner in the firm's New York office. He is a regular contributor to Harvard Business Review, World Economic Forum Agenda, and other business publications. You can read Philipp's latest thinking in his Fortune column. Philipp was previously Chief Economist at Sanford C. Bernstein where he covered the economy and markets for institutional investors across the global asset management industry. Earlier in his career, he worked for the OECD and McKinsey & Company . Philipp studied at LSE and has a Ph.D from Oxford University.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:46) Economic False Alarms Over Past 5 Years (05:44) The False Recession Signal of 2022 (19:36) VanEck Ad (20:17) What Is The Cause Of So Much Economic Pessimism? (26:26) Are Sovereign Debt Levels A Threat To Economy? (39:56) Permissionless III Ad (40:54) AI And Labor Productivity (54:04) How To Prepare For Actual Material Economic Threats (01:00:52) What Are The False Signals Of 2024? (01:06:25) Geopolitical Risks (01:13:10) U.S. / China Tensions (01:17:22) Black Swan: Solar Flare __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On this episode DCMWG begins with Docs With Damona: ‘Tell Them You Love Me' and her review of the documentary (5:03), Darkside of the DM (24:56), Michael Rainey Jr. was sexually assaulted during a live stream that caused an uproar understandably so (31:41), Tyla gets backlash after people get upset with her for not acknowledging her “blackness” during an interview on The Breakfast Club (35:08), Voicemails (42:20) & more.  Get your real life advice from Mona on the show! Dial 267-225-2492 and leave a question for a chance to have your voicemail answered on an episode. JOIN THE NEW DCMWG PLUS COMMUNITY FOR BONUS EPISODES, AD-FREE LISTENING & OTHER EXCLUSIVE CONTENT CLICK HERE:  https://dcmwg.supportingcast.fm Executive Producers for Breakbeat: Dave Mays & Brett Jeffries Executive Producer: Don't Call Me White Girl Producer: Tom Flies Production: Creative Mind Productions: Vernon Ray (@AllMoneyShots) & Zack James (@ZJames_RHC) Instagram: @BreakbeatMedia @DontCallMeeWhiteGirl @PhelpsJugo @TomFlies Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Sandy Cortez says Trump will arrest her if he wins in November. Meanwhile CA lefty Eric Swalwell tweets: if you're not White, Trump will deport you. Enjoy my fab music vid about jackals like Sandy & Eric here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWD-x3GIUFA

Bob Bailey stars as Johnny Dollar, the insurance investigator who never met a job he couldn't do, provided he could freewheel with his expense account.  'Yours Truly, Johnny Dollar' was one of the best on radio for 13 years.

The first story is an amusing incident where Jax the horse playfully triggered a fire alarm, causing a brief scare at a farm in Westchester. Next, PBS Kids has enhanced accessibility by offering programs in American Sign Language, with six series including Arthur and Daniel Tiger's Neighborhood dubbed into ASL, and more tailored features for neurodiverse and visually impaired kids. The third story details how the NFL draft donated stage materials to local nonprofits like the Detroit Dog Rescue, aiding in building better facilities for animals. The fourth story offers a simple hack to keep flies out of the house using essential oils like peppermint. Lastly, the techno train event in Nuremberg, Germany, offers a unique experience with dance cars and DJs entertaining passengers on a round trip, illustrating an innovative use of public transport for entertainment. Horseplay Causes Fire Alarm ScarePBS Kids Embraces American Sign LanguageNFL Draft Materials Benefit Local NonprofitsExpert Tips to Keep Flies Out of Your HomeTechno Train: A Unique Party Experience Get all these episodes plus hundreds more commercial free here! See the full list of shows and sign up for our newsletter for more great news from Caloroga Shark Media.

On today's show, it's become a global issue that alarms in cellphones have stopped going off. Meg and Clint play another round of 'Rage Bait' with Dan and there's a plot twist with employee of the week!!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If the Tolt River Dam failed, it would be catastrophic for the roughly 2000 people that live in Carnation. Fortunately, the city has an alarm system that would alert residents of a dam failure so they could evacuate.Unfortunately, residents have unexpectedly and pointlessly heard that sound eight times in the last four years.

There's a wack load of GW updates for the OG three to cover. What's new, who's getting legended, and why it's ok to have hurt feelings. Plus, a little look ahead to False Alarm!

On this day in 1974, the residents of Sitka, Alaska, were fooled into thinking that a nearby volcano was erupting.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This episode is presented by Carolina Readiness Supply – Congressman Jamaal Bowman will face no punishment from the House Ethics Committee for pulling a fire alarm and then giving "misleading" explanations for his actions. Plus, the guy who stole Donald Trump's taxes gets a sweet deal from the DOJ. Subscribe to the podcast at: https://ThePeteKalinerShow.com/  Please note: Google Podcasts are merging into YouTube Music. See details here. I post all prep links on my Patreon after each show: https://patreon.com/petekalinershow  (The prep posts are free)  Get exclusive content here!: https://thepetekalinershow.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Monday, October 2nd, 2023Today, in the Hot Notes: the Democrats swoop in a save the day by passing a continuing resolution to keep the government open but not before the Putin caucus strips Ukrainian funding; January 6th fugitive Christopher Worrell has been captured, and you'll never guess where they found him; Scott Hall becomes the first Fulton County defendant to flip; the police chief who led that raid on the Marion County Kansas newspaper has been suspended; an arrest has been made in the 1996 murder of Tupac Shakur; no, I don't care about Rep. Jamaal Bowman pulling a fire alarm; plus Allison and Dana deliver your Good News.Want some sweet Daily Beans Merchhttps://shop.dailybeanspod.com/Check out other MSW Media podcastshttps://mswmedia.com/shows/Follow AG and Dana on Social MediaDr. Allison Gill Follow Mueller, She Wrote on Posthttps://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrotehttps://twitter.com/dailybeanspodhttps://www.tiktok.com/@muellershewrotehttps://instagram.com/muellershewroteDana Goldberghttps://twitter.com/DGComedyhttps://www.instagram.com/dgcomedyhttps://www.facebook.com/dgcomedyDon't Ask Don't Tell Resources For VeteransGoogle Doc of legislation threatening trans people and their families:LGBTQ+ Legislative TrackingHave some good news; a confession; or a correction?Good News & Confessions - The Daily BeansFrom the Good Newswww.bluewavepostcards.orgPromo CodesFor 20% off all mattress orders AND two free pillows for our listeners! Go to https://www.helxsleep.com/dailybeans and use code HELIXPARTNER.Listener Survey:http://survey.podtrac.com/start-survey.aspx?pubid=BffJOlI7qQcF&ver=shortFollow the Podcast on Apple:The Daily Beans on Apple PodcastsWant to support the show and get it ad-free and early?https://dailybeans.supercast.techOrhttps://patreon.com/thedailybeansOr subscribe on Apple Podcasts with our affiliate linkThe Daily Beans on Apple Podcasts

Dr. Jordan B. Peterson and Bjørn Lomborg go through each of the “doable dozen,” a series of issues that cost relatively little to solve, and yet doing so would yield exponential returns for developing countries and their impoverished citizens. Bjørn Lomborg is a Danish author, having written numerous books on climate change such as “False Alarm,” “The Skeptical Environmentalist,” and “How to Spend $75 Billion to Make the World a Better Place.” He is the president of the think tank Copenhagen Consensus Center which focuses on doing the most good for the most people, with increasingly limited budgets. Bjørn's newest book, "Best Things First," is set to release soon, so check out the link below to reserve your copy! - Links - For Bjørn Lomborg: Be the first to get a copy of "Best things first" We'll send you an email with a link to order Bjorn Lomborg's upcoming Best Things First - The 12 most efficient solutions for the world's poorest and our global SDG promises. You'll get it 3 days before the book is released! https://copenhagenconsensus.com/halftime-sustainable-development-goals-2016-2030/be-first-get-copy-best-things-first Website: https://www.lomborg.com/