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2 episodes with imfs
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2 episodes with imfs
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2 episodes with imfs
Hva sier Kol. 4, 5-6 om kristent trosforsvar? «Gå fram med visdom blant dem som står utenfor, og bruk den dyrebare tiden godt. La alt dere sier, være vennlig, og la det ha salt og kraft, så dere vet hvordan dere skal svare hver enkelt.» Hvordan kan vi rent konkret praktisere det Paulus her oppfordrer til? Hva møter du i hverdagen av … aktuelle spørsmål om kristen tro? aktuelle innvendinger mot kristen tro? aktuelle myter om kristen tro? aktuelle livssynsalternativer til kristen tro? I denne episoden kan du høre et seminar med Lars Dahle. Han er professor i systematisk teologi med vekt på apologetikk ved NLA Høgskolen og daglig leder for Damaris Norge. Opptak fra ImFs apologetikkhelg på Frænabu 1.-3. mars 2024.
Hva sier Hebr. 11,3 om kristen Skaper-tro? «I tro forstår vi at verden er skapt ved Guds ord, og at det vi ser, har sitt opphav i det usynlige.» Hva sier dette bibelordet om hvorfor vi tror på Gud som Skaper? Hvilke grunner har vi for å tro på Gud som Skaper - og hvilke spørsmål, innvendinger og livssynsalternativer møter en kristen Skaper-tro dag? I denne episoden kan du høre et seminar med Lars Dahle. Han er professor i systematisk teologi med vekt på apologetikk ved NLA Høgskolen og daglig leder for Damaris Norge. Opptak fra ImFs apologetikkhelg på Frænabu 1.-3. mars 2024.
In this episode of WealthVest: The Weekly Bull & Bear Drew and Tim discuss U.S. wholesale inflation, retail sales, bank earnings and the IMFs economic outlook. WealthVest – based in Bozeman, MT, and San Francisco, CA – is a financial services marketing and distribution firm specializing in fixed and fixed index annuities from many high-quality insurance companies. WealthVest provides the tools, resources, practice management support, and products that financial professionals need to provide their clients a predictable retirement that has their best interest in mind.Hosts: Drew Dokken, Tim PierottiAlbum Artwork: Sam YarboroughShow Editing and Production: Tavin DavisDisclosure: The information covered and posted represents the views and opinions of the hosts and does not necessarily represent the views or opinions of WealthVest. The mere appearance of Content on the Site does not constitute an endorsement by WealthVest. The Content has been made available for informational and educational purposes only. WealthVest does not make any representation or warranties with respect to the accuracy, applicability, fitness, or completeness of the Content.WealthVest does not warrant the performance, effectiveness or applicability of any sites listed or linked to in any Content. The content is not intended to be a substitute for professional investing advice. Always seek the advice of your financial advisor or other qualified financial service provider with any questions you may have regarding your investment planning. Investment and investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
The role of the turbulence driving mode for the Initial Mass Function by Sajay Sunny Mathew et al. on Monday 28 November Turbulence is a critical ingredient for star formation, yet its role for the initial mass function (IMF) is not fully understood. Here we perform magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) simulations of star cluster formation including gravity, turbulence, magnetic fields, stellar heating and outflow feedback to study the influence of the mode of turbulence driving on IMF. We find that simulations that employ purely compressive turbulence driving (COMP) produce a higher fraction of low-mass stars as compared to simulations that use purely solenoidal driving (SOL). The characteristic (median) mass of the sink particle (protostellar) distribution for COMP is shifted to lower masses by a factor of ~ 1.5 compared to SOL. Our simulation IMFs capture the important features of the observed IMF form. We find that turbulence-regulated theories of the IMF match our simulation IMFs reasonably well in the high-mass and low-mass range, but underestimate the number of very low-mass stars, which form towards the later stages of our simulations and stop accreting due to dynamical interactions. Our simulations show that for both COMP and SOL, the multiplicity fraction is an increasing function of the primary mass, although the multiplicity fraction in COMP is higher than that of SOL for any primary mass range. We find that binary mass ratio distribution is independent of the turbulence driving mode. The average specific angular momentum of the sink particles in SOL is a factor of 2 higher than that for COMP. Overall, we conclude that the turbulence driving mode plays a significant role in shaping the IMF. arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/http://arxiv.org/abs/2208.08802v2
The role of the turbulence driving mode for the Initial Mass Function by Sajay Sunny Mathew et al. on Sunday 27 November Turbulence is a critical ingredient for star formation, yet its role for the initial mass function (IMF) is not fully understood. Here we perform magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) simulations of star cluster formation including gravity, turbulence, magnetic fields, stellar heating and outflow feedback to study the influence of the mode of turbulence driving on IMF. We find that simulations that employ purely compressive turbulence driving (COMP) produce a higher fraction of low-mass stars as compared to simulations that use purely solenoidal driving (SOL). The characteristic (median) mass of the sink particle (protostellar) distribution for COMP is shifted to lower masses by a factor of ~ 1.5 compared to SOL. Our simulation IMFs capture the important features of the observed IMF form. We find that turbulence-regulated theories of the IMF match our simulation IMFs reasonably well in the high-mass and low-mass range, but underestimate the number of very low-mass stars, which form towards the later stages of our simulations and stop accreting due to dynamical interactions. Our simulations show that for both COMP and SOL, the multiplicity fraction is an increasing function of the primary mass, although the multiplicity fraction in COMP is higher than that of SOL for any primary mass range. We find that binary mass ratio distribution is independent of the turbulence driving mode. The average specific angular momentum of the sink particles in SOL is a factor of 2 higher than that for COMP. Overall, we conclude that the turbulence driving mode plays a significant role in shaping the IMF. arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/http://arxiv.org/abs/2208.08802v2
CARMA-NRO Orion Survey: unbiased survey of dense cores and core mass functions in Orion A by Hideaki Takemura et al. on Tuesday 22 November The mass distribution of dense cores is a potential key to understand the process of star formation. Applying dendrogram analysis to the CARMA-NRO Orion C$^{18}$O ($J$=1--0) data, we identify 2342 dense cores, about 22 % of which have virial ratios smaller than 2, and can be classified as gravitationally bound cores. The derived core mass function (CMF) for bound starless cores which are not associate with protostars has a slope similar to Salpeter's initial mass function (IMF) for the mass range above 1 $M_odot$, with a peak at $sim$ 0.1 $M_odot$. We divide the cloud into four parts based on the declination, OMC-1/2/3, OMC-4/5, L1641N/V380 Ori, and L1641C, and derive the CMFs in these regions. We find that starless cores with masses greater than 10 $M_odot$ exist only in OMC-1/2/3, whereas the CMFs in OMC-4/5, L1641N, and L1641C are truncated at around 5--10 $M_odot$. From the number ratio of bound starless cores and Class II objects in each subregion, the lifetime of bound starless cores is estimated to be 5--30 free-fall times, consistent with previous studies for other regions. In addition, we discuss core growth by mass accretion from the surrounding cloud material to explain the coincidence of peak masses between IMFs and CMFs. The mass accretion rate required for doubling the core mass within a core lifetime is larger than that of Bondi-Hoyle accretion by a factor of order 2. This implies that more dynamical accretion processes are required to grow cores. arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/http://arxiv.org/abs/2211.10215v2
CARMA-NRO Orion Survey: unbiased survey of dense cores and core mass functions in Orion A by Hideaki Takemura et al. on Monday 21 November The mass distribution of dense cores is a potential key to understand the process of star formation. Applying dendrogram analysis to the CARMA-NRO Orion C$^{18}$O ($J$=1--0) data, we identify 2342 dense cores, about 22 % of which have virial ratios smaller than 2, and can be classified as gravitationally bound cores. The derived core mass function (CMF) for bound starless cores which are not associate with protostars has a slope similar to Salpeter's initial mass function (IMF) for the mass range above 1 $M_odot$, with a peak at $sim$ 0.1 $M_odot$. We divide the cloud into four parts based on the declination, OMC-1/2/3, OMC-4/5, L1641N/V380 Ori, and L1641C, and derive the CMFs in these regions. We find that starless cores with masses greater than 10 $M_odot$ exist only in OMC-1/2/3, whereas the CMFs in OMC-4/5, L1641N, and L1641C are truncated at around 5--10 $M_odot$. From the number ratio of bound starless cores and Class II objects in each subregion, the lifetime of bound starless cores is estimated to be 5--30 free-fall times, consistent with previous studies for other regions. In addition, we discuss core growth by mass accretion from the surrounding cloud material to explain the coincidence of peak masses between IMFs and CMFs. The mass accretion rate required for doubling the core mass within a core lifetime is larger than that of Bondi-Hoyle accretion by a factor of order 2. This implies that more dynamical accretion processes are required to grow cores. arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/http://arxiv.org/abs/2211.10215v2
CARMA-NRO Orion Survey: unbiased survey of dense cores and core mass functions in Orion A by Hideaki Takemura et al. on Monday 21 November The mass distribution of dense cores is a potential key to understand the process of star formation. Applying dendrogram analysis to the CARMA-NRO Orion C$^{18}$O ($J$=1--0) data, we identify 2342 dense cores, about 22 % of which have virial ratios smaller than 2, and can be classified as gravitationally bound cores. The derived core mass function (CMF) for bound starless cores which are not associate with protostars has a slope similar to Salpeter's initial mass function (IMF) for the mass range above 1 $M_odot$, with a peak at $sim$ 0.1 $M_odot$. We divide the cloud into four parts based on the declination, OMC-1/2/3, OMC-4/5, L1641N/V380 Ori, and L1641C, and derive the CMFs in these regions. We find that starless cores with masses greater than 10 $M_odot$ exist only in OMC-1/2/3, whereas the CMFs in OMC-4/5, L1641N, and L1641C are truncated at around 5--10 $M_odot$. From the number ratio of bound starless cores and Class II objects in each subregion, the lifetime of bound starless cores is estimated to be 5--30 free-fall times, consistent with previous studies for other regions. In addition, we discuss core growth by mass accretion from the surrounding cloud material to explain the coincidence of peak masses between IMFs and CMFs. The mass accretion rate required for doubling the core mass within a core lifetime is larger than that of Bondi-Hoyle accretion by a factor of order 2. This implies that more dynamical accretion processes are required to grow cores. arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/http://arxiv.org/abs/2211.10215v1
How the International Monetary Fund, the world's economic firefighter, works for global monetary cooperation and prosperity while using its own made-up currency, the SDR.Topics covered include:What was the Bretton Woods monetary system that led to the formation of the IMF and the World BankHow the World Bank and IMF differWhat does the IMF doHow the IMF creates its own money out of thin airWhy does Argentina, the IMF's largest borrower, keep defaulting on its debt obligation including those to the IMFWhy the IMFs negotiating tactics are controversialFor more information on this episode click here.SponsorsAura, the new standard in digital safety PolicygeniusShow NotesCreation of the Bretton Woods System, July 1944—Federal Reserve HistoryThe World BankInternational Monetary FundSterling devalued and the IMF loan—Cabinet Papers, The National ArchiveTotal IMF Credit Outstanding, Movement From November 01, 2022 to November 07, 2022—IMFWhy you can't technically default on the IMF by Izabella Kaminska—Financial TimesImplications of the IMF's SDR Allocation for Australia and the Global Economy by Ben Hollebon and Kate Hickie—Reserve Bank of AustraliaThe IMF cannot solve Argentina's dysfunction—The EconomistIMF Executive Board Completes Second Review of the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility for Argentina—IMFThe IMF: The World's Controversial Financial Firefighter—by Jonathan Masters, Andrew Chatzky, and Anshu Siripurapu—Council on Foreign RelationsRelated Episodes233: Is An Emerging Markets Crisis Imminent?322: Why Currency Exchange Rates Matter?See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
The IMF's semi-annual Fiscal Monitor report recently published – arguably the most comprehensive source of standardised global fiscal data available – accentuates how fiscal policy can protect emerging market economies against the cost-of-living crisis, while concurrently preserving medium-term sustainability of public finances. Ehsan Khoman, Head of Commodities, ESG and Emerging Markets Research (EMEA) discusses the IMF's key conclusions and offers insights into why he believes the next major imbalance to materialise across the emerging markets complex will be public finances. Ehsan believes that those comprising large fiscal deficits, public debt levels and weaker balance sheets will be key differentiating factor for markets to cogitate in the months ahead. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
The FRQs discussed in this episode are the question 4s from the 2019, 2018 and 2017 AP Exam. These are released FRQs from previous exams and copyright of the College Board (0:23).Question 4 of the 2018 exam focuses on comparing the IMFs of CS2 and COS, asking you to explain why CS2 has a higher boiling point (1:48). The second part has you calculate the pressure of CS2 using the ideal gas law (3:11). In question 4 of the 2019 exam you describe the effect of raising the temperature on the motion of the CO2 particles connecting temperature and particle speed (4:09). In part b you calculate the new pressure under constant volume (4:59), in part c) you describe why the pressure increases (6:35) and in part d you compare an ideal and a real gas (7:19). Question 4 of the 2017 exam focuses in Chromatography, identifying the least polar dye by discussing the interactions between dye and solvent/paper (8:29) as well as identifying an unknown by comparing how far the dye travelled (9:05).Today's Question of the day is about FRQ Questions.True or false: The term “van-der-Waals” forces can be used instead of London Dispersion Forces.Thank you for listening to The APsolute RecAP: Chemistry Edition!(AP is a registered trademark of the College Board and is not affiliated with The APsolute RecAP. Copyright 2021 - The APsolute RecAP, LLC. All rights reserved.)Website:www.theapsoluterecap.comEMAIL:TheAPsoluteRecAP@gmail.comFollow Us:INSTAGRAMTWITTERFACEBOOKYOUTUBE
Sitting in your room, you might have salted peanuts as a snack, a pencil, tea with sugar and you listen to this episode with earphones in (0:31). Sodium chloride, sugar, graphite and copper represent four types of solids. Sodium chloride is an ionic solid with low vapor pressure, high melting points and high boiling points, because of the strong attractive forces. Sugar is a molecular compound with low melting points due to weak IMFs (1:22). Graphite is an example of a network covalent solid (5:29), which generally have high melting points. Copper is representative of a metallic solid, which are good conductors of heat (6:44), ductile and malleable (7:06). Homogenous mixtures of metals are alloys (7:21).Which of the following could be the identity of a solid that exhibits the following properties: it melts at 2973°C; it doesn't conduct electricity as a solid nor as a liquid.A. ionic B. covalent C. covalent network D. metallicThank you for listening to The APsolute RecAP: Chemistry Edition!(AP is a registered trademark of the College Board and is not affiliated with The APsolute RecAP. Copyright 2021 - The APsolute RecAP, LLC. All rights reserved.)Website:www.theapsoluterecap.comEMAIL:TheAPsoluteRecAP@gmail.comFollow Us:INSTAGRAMTWITTERFACEBOOKYOUTUBE
Why has Senior Minister of Singapore & Chair of MAS Tharman Shanmugartnam warned of crypto-trading for retail investors? What is driving the jump in revenue for Coinbase? Why has the IMF upgraded its global economic growth forecast? Michelle Martin and Ryan Huang sieve through the latest news headlines. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Welcome to Finance and Fury, the Furious Friday edition. Two weeks ago on Furious Friday, we went through an intro to the great reset. This episode we will look further into this topic, at some of the proposals and break these down further. I managed to talk to someone involved with the WEF in the interim which provided some good insights If you haven’t heard - The great reset is all about resetting the economy and society – resetting in the way that a handful of individuals at the top of entities like the WEF, UN deem to be in the world’s populations interest To start with – we need to get to the bottom of the best way to actually think about the economy - it is useful to think of an economy in real terms versus the purely financial terms I have said it many times in this podcast that the real economy is what is important – and that is you and I – our economic interactions, where we work, what we buy or how we consume or save, every one of our interactions at the aggregate level is the total sum of economic output – The economy when left to its own devices for economic growth can create a situation where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts Through specialisation and effects of real economic growth leading to a greater output overall – all about an equilibrium being reached over time through having free economic interactions Everything that is a final product tends to have a greater value when compared to the sum of its parts – we process martials and they are transported and transformed into other physical goods, which are transported from point A to point B and consumed– Think about a pencil – there is a good essay called I, Pencil – by Leonard Read – talks about the complexity in making this – where no one person can actually produce a pencil – the gathering of the components and the trying to turn these components into one item as simple as a pencil – quote from it – “The absence of a master mind, of anyone dictating or forcibly directing these countless actions which bring me (the pencil) into being. No trace of such a person can be found. Instead, we find the invisible hand at work.” This is very much akin to the metabolism that maintains a living body – which is a very complex system So when we are thinking about the economy – important to think of the economy as total system which encompasses the total body of humanity - all cultures, nations and families of the world and how they function on a day to day basis – Where economists and elites then step in – this can be very dangerous – their first step is that our economic interactions then gets measured – analysed and statistical representations are created – based around the models that are chosen by them – and what they choose to include or exclude in these models – hence we are relying on their interpretation of data and statistical measurements to get these aggregate economic indicators then – a handful of people analyse these data sets – then they believe that they know how to best maximise outputs based around a statistical representation – even though they had nothing to do with the output in the first place – However - they have studied for years and have come up with theories and therefore know better This brings into question the concept of economic specialised knowledge versus common knowledge – no handful of individuals can know what is best when compared to the common knowledge (each of whom have their own forms of specialised knowledge, which may not be economic) However - Even though economists or policy makers haven’t lived the same life as you – they still think they know what is best for you - they have different priorities and different personal economic situation – most of the people coming up with these plans are very connected and affluent individuals – on very good salaries that are not going to be affected by their proposals – if anything they will get more income Disappointing to see economists and policy makers believing that humans are stagnate representations of the outputs of these measurements They forget that humans are dynamic – we adapt – and tend to try and maximise for our own situation – there are lagged time periods depending on those who adapt first and those that actually never adapt They very nature of adaption comes back to creative destruction through a technological progress – however – those with the most power often don’t want this – their products are at the top currently – they are in power – in addition – for policies to work as intended there needs to be as little adaption as possible – the assumptions are based around individuals being stagnant after all so creative destructions that are population driven through the supply of new goods and services get stifled – And a greater focus is on demand – if no new supply beyond monopolies can exist – then you have to work with the existing supply and the only path to economic growth is seen through demand side That creates a situation that actually fails to meet the optimised results for the growing needs of humanity – hence the population concerns are ignored when looking at the actual outcome – This brings up back to the core concept of the great reset is that the WEF and their strategic partners – where they want to remake the economy and systems as they see are in our best interest – covid is used as an excuse push polices changes through whilst the population is malleable to change This isn’t some out there theory – they are literally telling us - Simple manner of reading what they write – many people don’t – they are busy which is understandable – and many of these concepts do sound utopian on paper – but I am more focused on the likely outcome – not the proposals From the previous episode covering this – went through the strategic partners – on top of this – the great reset is also favoured by the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) - an intergovernmental economic organisation with 37 member countries which we are a member of – as well as the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres who is the former president of the Socialist International organisation You also have influential induvial like Prince Charles and the IMFs chief economist Gina Gopinath as well as having the backing from corporations including Microsoft, Google, Facebook and, many of the biggest banks and MasterCard backing these plans But Prince Charles stated that “We have a golden opportunity to seize something good from this crisis. Its unprecedented shockwaves may well make people more receptive to big visions of change,” His Father Prince Philip said in 1988 when speaking to German news agency “In the event that I am reincarnated, I would like to return as a deadly virus, to contribute something to solving overpopulation.” A lot of this reset has to go with the alignment of the economy to the emission-reduction goals, including net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. It recommends stimulus measures to ensure “social development … is fully integrated with environmental objectives such as those in UN Sustainable Development Goals that form part of Agenda 2030 – but this is another topic for another day – that has already been covered in length on the podcast in the past – there is a series about 15 episodes long – on the website under the series called by any other name – united nations, socialism, fascism There is a disturbing trend through history – and that is leaders who think they possess the power to change the course of history through reshaping the economy and the social contracts that we would otherwise try to optimise The more that they have undemocratic control – the worse things tended to get - These individuals who believe they control the destiny of the population are not only deluded – but to enforce their plans things invariably become violent when human nature gets in the way – the more they wish to mould human nature to their utopian world – the greater the control is needed – and the greater control the state has over people – the worse the persons life tends to get – not only economically but at the very basis of freedom of choice I know that a lot of people can switch off here – as the thinking goes – this could never happen to us – you will probably be right – but what about future generations? Remember – in the world today – North Korea exists, Venezuela exists – looking back not that far – going back to the 90s the USSR existed, as well as Vietnam, Cambodia, China under Mao, Cuba under Castro – many countries have gone through the removals of freedoms of choice in economic interactions – never works well – and all of these previously mentioned countries - before this they were relatedly free countries when compared to what they turned into – but the turning point was once the population gave enough power to governments that the enforcement could be implemented – in the west I see it as more so a will of the government and not the ability – they have the ability in most western nations to enforce anything they want in population centres – seen it in the recent lock down enforcements Getting to the core of the proposal - The Great Reset agenda would have three main focuses – with 6 components to achieve this and 52 sub components - For the top-level focuses that the WEF have – The first would steer the market toward fairer outcomes – the core of this focus is to create global governance to improve policy coordination on policies for taxation and at the regulatory level, as well as fiscal policy This includes upgrading trade arrangements, and create the conditions for a “stakeholder economy.” It is a fancy way of saying a centrally planned socialist economy – where profits should no longer be the focus but these should be given back to the people In the current environment they are – if you own a state in the company – but under this model – it sounds like what Marx was proposing back to factory workers – even though he never worked in a factory The WEF states that these proposals need governments to implement long-overdue reforms that promote more equitable outcomes. Depending on the country, these may include changes to wealth taxes, the withdrawal of fossil-fuel subsidies, and new rules governing intellectual property, trade, and competition The second component of a Great Reset agenda would ensure that investments advance shared goals, such as equality and sustainability This one confuses me a bit – it calls for large-scale Government spending programs – they say that “rather than using these funds, as well as investments from private entities and pension funds, to fill cracks in the old system, we should use them to create a new one that is more resilient, equitable, and sustainable in the long run. This means, for example, building “green” urban infrastructure and creating incentives for industries to improve their track record on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) metrics” This last part has something to do with sustainability – but the equality component may have something to do with UBI proposals – but there is too little information to know at this stage The third and final priority of a Great Reset agenda is to harness the innovations of the Fourth Industrial Revolution to support the public good A lot of these align with the SDGs – the more I read about the proposals – the more I see the exact same vague proposals that the UN came out with For the six components to help achieve this – you have a lot of sub-components – and these normally relate to 2 or 3 of each Shaping the economic recovery – Taxation, gender parity, inclusive economic designs Redesigning social contracts, skills and jobs – LGBTI inclusion, human rights, future of mobility (immigration) Restoring the Health of the Environment – focus on climate change, the circular economy Developing sustainable business models – focused on climate change as well, employment in the workplace Harnessing the Fourth Industrial revolution – internet governance, digital identities, AI, digital economy and identities Strengthening regional development Revitalizing global cooperation – focused on global governance, globalisation trade, global financial and monetary systems When looking at these - Again – they have some detail of what their proposals are but not how they are gong to achieve this – especially around the equality elements The only system which can eliminate inequality is one where every citizen lives equally in tragedy – you have to reduce society to the lowest common denominator – obviously those who are proposing these changes from Davos – very nice area in Switzerland will be unaffected – as well as political leaders – you are paying their exorbitant salaries after all – no risk of the free market coming in the way of this But every time political leaders with the backing of the enforcement side of a Government wish to enforce equality – it doesn’t work well for us - Those living in Ukraine discovered this in the early 1930s when the Holodomor occurred - between 3 million and 12 million people starved to death after the Soviets convinced people to turn on their village’s farmers and the government confiscated all of the food – as they were apparently hoarding it – they went through their own form of lock downs – as they weren’t allowed to leave In the process – the breadbasket of the Soviet union no longer could provide food – so a lot of the USSR starved to death Looking at the top level proposals – a lot of this reeks of Marxist ideology - Marxist logic dictates that if someone profits from a sale of a good, or if the individual who has taken all the risk and put up their own capital to create a company to employer others – they are robbing people As there is an inequality due to them getting more out of the economic truncations – hence – if there is inequality, a crime has been committed and the population (or the government) has the right to commit a crime back in the form of violent enforcement This notion in the hands of Governments has prompted the most horror ever seen by humanity – even both of the world wars death tolls are less than communist death tolls – A free market does create inequality – but at the same time the living standards and wealth of those left behind are still vastly better than under a purely equal system - this is because wealth creation is not a zero-sum game There is not a finite amount of money or wealth - Money can be created, jobs can be created and people can be pulled out of tragedy and despair by a free market – might not be as easy as getting free money – but this is a ceiling trap – or welfare trap – where people can be trapped in poverty But individuals at the WEF are set to try and repeat the mistakes of the pass – if you view it as a mistake from a population level – for those at the top – these styles of governments are not a mistake – their lifestyles get better, whilst those under them get worse as Karl Marx would say: “History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce”. Important thing – don’t buy into the rhetoric around these proposals – they all sound good – but so did communism to those at the centre of the political spectrum - Nobody can know what you goals are but you – giving in control is sacrificing to those who don’t know you – don’t care about you – do not have the same shared goals – They say they want better for the world – but this is in their own vision – The best thing for their world may be to reduce the population to 500m and have a serf class with full automation – but that is not the best thing for us - Maybe next ep – might focus on some of the economic resets – especially the currency side of things towards a digital currency – but have covered this topic in the past – like the monetary resets to digital currencies – so let me know if you want to hear more and can do another episode - Thank you for listening to today's episode. If you want to get in contact you can do so here: http://financeandfury.com.au/contact/
Story on the cover page points to the inflation numbers which were up in September and some analysts pointing to a number of factors one of which is the devalued domestic currency, and also the IMFs revised outlook for Nigeria from a decline of 5.3% to 4.3%.Does this revised outlook make the inflation situation any less severe? World Food Day.What more can you tell us about this Feed Africa Initiative and is Nigeria tapping into this programme?
Ira Pastor, ideaXme life sciences ambassador, interviews John Kiff, Senior Financial Sector Expert at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Financial Stability Division in the Monetary and Capital Markets Department. Ira Pastor Comments: So on past shows as we’ve been profiling many of the novel products and technologies being developed by industry, by academia, and by governments on the healthy aging and longevity front, we’ve also taken time to discuss a range of the traditional and novel funding pools emerging to support these programs, from traditional life science venture capital and private equity, to the public stock markets, to innovative prize models, such as UK Research and Innovation's (UKRI) Healthy Ageing Challenge program and the Healthy Longevity Global Grand Challenge of the U.S. National Academy of Medicine. Today, we are going to stay on this financial theme, but are going to head in a different direction, to talk to a thought leader who is asking the really big questions today, about what the future of global financial stability looks like, especially in a world where technologies may soon allow for "90 to become the new 50." That people are now living longer, due to science and technology, is very desirable and has greatly improved individual welfare. However, there are financial costs of longer life expectancy, for governments through employee retirement plans and social security schemes, for corporate employers with defined-benefit pension plans, for insurers that sell annuities, and for individuals without guaranteed retirement benefits. The financial implications of longevity risk (defined as the financial implications of people living longer than expected) are very large. It is estimated that if average life spans by 2050 were to increase only 3 years more than now expected, the already vast cost of aging would increase by 50 percent, with private defined benefit pension liabilities alone amounting to greater than $23 trillion. The International Monetary Fund (IMF)is an international organization headquartered in Washington, D.C., consisting of 189 countries working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world. John Kiff: John Kiff is a Senior Financial Sector Expert at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Financial Stability Division in the Monetary and Capital Markets Department. As part of this team since 2005, he is involved in producing the IMFS semi-annual Global Financial Stability Report, as well as focusing on OTC derivative market infrastructure, securitization, and longevity risk transfer markets. Mr. Kiff is also focused on fintech and digital asset policy issues, including producing the IMF’s monthly Fintech Update, and co-writing staff discussion notes on central bank digital currency. Prior to the IMF, John worked at the Bank of Canada for 25 years, where he spent most of his time managing the funding and investment of the government’s foreign exchange reserves. On this episode we will hear from Mr. Kiff about: His background; how he developed an interest in economics, in central banking, and how he became focused on the topic of longevity risk management. A general introduction to the IMF as well as its relationship with the World Bank. A general discussion about “Longevity Risk” and the tools of Longevity Bonds and Longevity Swaps. A discussion of some other novel financial instruments and strategies for managing Longevity Risk. His work in the areas of digital currencies. Credits: Ira Pastor interview video, text, and audio. Follow Ira Pastor on Twitter:@IraSamuelPastor If you liked this interview, be sure to check out ourinterview on Human Longevity via Preventative Medicine! Follow ideaXme on Twitter:@ideaxm On Instagram:@ideaxme Find ideaXme across the internet including oniTunes,SoundCloud,Radio Public,TuneIn Radio,I Heart Radio, Google Podcasts, Spotify and more. ideaXme is a global podcast, creator series and mentor programme. Our mission: Move the human story forward!™ ideaXme Ltd.
Welcome to Finance and Fury, the Furious Friday edition. In the last two Furious Friday episodes, I’ve talked about the regulation and de-regulations on the monetary and fiscal sides. Covered the Banking Act of 1933 and the Glass-Stegall section of this – then the financial de-regulations that occurred in 1986 and 1999 – some interesting events have played out since then What I didn’t cover is that there was a step taken back after GFC – to help undo some of the de-regulation a rule in the US that was designed to prevent banks that receive federal and taxpayer backing in the form of deposit insurance and other support from engaging in risky trading activities – called the Volcker rule but recently got watered down 3 weeks ago – might have something to do with loan products that banks are now offering due to business shut downs – interesting timing and connections which we will run through today The Volcker Rule is a federal regulation that aimed to prohibit banks from conducting certain investment activities with their own accounts – also aimed to limit their involvement with hedge funds and private equity funds - called covered funds The Volcker Rule aims to protect bank customers by preventing banks from making certain types of speculative investments that contributed to the 2008 financial crisis Named after former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, the Volcker Rule is a section of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act The Volcker Rule prohibits banks from using their own accounts for short-term proprietary trading – Proprietary trading occurs when a trader trades stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, their derivatives, or other financial instruments with the firm's own money, aka the nostro account, contrary to depositors' money, in order to make a profit for itself – so using the banks own assets to trade was barred also bars banks, or insured depository institutions, from acquiring or retaining ownership interests in hedge funds or private equity funds beyond a cap of 3% the rule aims to discourage banks from taking too much risk by barring them from using their own funds to make these types of investments to increase profits The Volcker Rule relies on the premise that these speculative trading activities do not benefit banks’ customers Still allows banks to continue normal activities - market-making, underwriting, hedging, trading government securities, engaging in insurance company activities, offering hedge funds and private equity funds, and acting as agents, brokers or custodians – all of this is allowed to generate profits But banks aren’t meant to engage in these activities if doing so would create a material conflict of interest, expose the institution to high-risk assets or trading strategies, or generate instability within the bank or within the overall U.S. financial system For instance = securitising their own lending and betting on this – or using their own funds to take too much risk on – as the banks own funds are meant to be protected with the TBTF legislation – take all the risk but bear none of the responsibility if it goes wrong Depending on their size, banks must meet varying levels of reporting requirements to disclose details of their covered trading activities to the government. Larger institutions must implement a program to ensure compliance with the new rules, and their programs are subject to independent testing and analysis. Smaller institutions are subject to lesser compliance and reporting requirements. Think of it as a Glass-Stegall lite version – limits some activity but not all – there are always loopholes – Doesn’t say anything about using depositors’ funds – which are on ‘loan’ to the banks – so technically not their own money which wouldn’t be considered proprietary trading Also - where those who were proprietary traders or derivative traders left to set up their own shop – still had access to banks capital on loan – was still ongoing with the regulation’s implementation – kept having delays 2017 - the IMFs top risk official said that regulations to prevent speculative bets are hard to enforce due to the ways around the regulations Background to this rule and what has occurred over the past few years up until the end of June this year Origins date back to 2009 - Volcker proposed a piece of regulation in response to the ongoing financial crisis - due to the largest banks having accumulated large losses from their proprietary trading arms that could have sunk the rest of the bank if not bailed out Proposal aimed to prohibit banks from speculating in the markets using capital reserves and own assets December 2013 - five federal agencies approved the final regulations that make up the Volcker Rule—the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) went into effect on April 1, 2014 - banks needed full compliance by July 21, 2015 Since then – the Fed has set procedures for banks to request extended time to transition into full compliance for certain activities and investments. Skip forward to June 2017 - the Treasury – the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency - after conducting a review - said it recommends significant changes to the Volcker Rule said that it does not support its repeal and "supports the rule in principle" – i.e. the rule's limitations on proprietary trading - but recommended exempting banks from the Volcker Rule banks with less than $10 billion in assets Treasury also cited regulatory compliance burdens created by the rule and suggested simplifying and refining the definitions of proprietary trading and covered funds on top of softening the regulation to allow banks to more easily hedge their risks. Federal Reserve's Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) made a similar argument, saying that the Volcker Rule will reduce liquidity due to a reduction in banks' market-making activities Then - on May 30, 2018 - the Federal Reserve Board voted unanimously to push forward a proposal to loosen the restrictions around the Volcker Rule further – the goal according to Powell, is "...to replace overly complex and inefficient requirements with a more streamlined set of requirements” In August of 2019, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency voted to amend the Volcker Rule in an attempt to clarify what securities trading was and was not allowed by banks – wanted to redefine some terms The change would require the five regulatory agencies to sign off before going into effect, but is generally seen as a relaxation of the rule's previous restriction on banks using their own funds to trade securities – allowing proprietary trading for some activities The proposal would eliminate a 3% cap on ownership of a venture capital fund. It would also allow banks to invest in debt-based funds among other changes. So it has been watered down for years and wasn’t fully in force anyway – but now final nail in coffin as of June 25, 2020 the federal reserve relaxed part of the rules involving banks investing in venture capital and for derivative trading Federal Deposit Insurance Commission (FDIC) - loosened restrictions in the Volcker rule on bank capital requirements and the levels of investments that banks can make in private equity and similar funds the banks will not have to set aside as much cash for derivatives trades between different units of the same firm- remember that this requirement had been put in place in the original rule to make sure that if speculative derivative bets went wrong, banks wouldn't get wiped out. The loosening of those requirements could free up billions of dollars in capital for the industry to start betting again So after the past few years - the Fed, FDIC, OCC and other agencies eased the aspect of Volcker that restricts lenders from engaging in proprietary trading -- the practice of making market bets for themselves instead of on behalf of clients Under the existing rule, banks could make indirect investments into venture capital funds but faced restrictions on directly owning a fund - The rule change would also give banks more leeway to invest or sponsor credit funds that make loans, invest in debt securities, or extend credit. One implication of this rule change would be greater bank activity in the market for collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) - where banks were previously barred from involving themselves with CLO funds that included a debt component due to this being considered their own funds (or an asset) Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell called the proposed change "a simpler, clearer approach to implementing the rule [which] makes it easier for both banks and regulators to carry out the intent of the rule". Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard voted against the proposal, arguing that "several of the proposed changes will weaken core protections in the Volcker rule and enable banking firms again to engage in high-risk activities related to covered funds” Why do this now? Only my speculation – no proof that this is occurring – but it lines up with billions being given out by banks that are government guaranteed as part of the US stimulus efforts. Look at the GFC – with Synthetic CDOs – take thousands of loans – put them in a security – then take that security and others – and put it in other securities – then write contracts on them – betting about price movements - bets on bets analogy – Those loans back in GFC had government guarantees – from Fannnie Mae and Freddie Mac – gov lending So if banks wanted to bet on bad loans – with Volker it was hard – but what is happening in the economy right now in the US? The Paycheck Protection Program – part of the CARES act - designed to provide forgivable loans to businesses hurt by the coronavirus The Act authorizes the Treasury, working in large part through the Federal Reserve, to make loans and loan guarantees available to eligible businesses. Title I - $350 billion for small business loans. Title IV - appropriates another $500 billion to aid mid-sized and large businesses $850bn in total - creating another winner in banks – as banks are the ones who are lending these funds Quick side note - Banks that made the government-guaranteed PPP loans to small businesses are set to collect billions of dollars in fees directly from the Small Business Administration Through the end of June, more than $521 billion in PPP loans had been approved, according to the latest data from the SBA Not out of the kindness of banks hearts - The top 10 lenders will receive an estimated total of more than $3.8 billion in fees S&P Global Market Intelligence- JPMorgan Chase, which is the largest PPP lender after extending nearly $29 billion worth of the loans, is on track to make some $864 million in fees. Bank of America, the next biggest, will rake in an estimated $755 million in fees on its PPP loans Under Treasury Department rules, PPP lenders can charge processing fees between 1% and 5%, depending on the amount of the loan - 5% on loans of $350,000 or less - 1% on loans of $2 million and above Lenders are barred from collecting the fees from the small businesses applying for PPP loans; instead, the SBA will cover the costs But banks can't count the fees as revenue immediately—they have to wait until the loans are either forgiven or paid back by the company, which could take years – unless the company goes out of business While the revenue from PPP fees is a small portion of the overall revenue of big banks, the program does create new assets for them to securitise – again I don’t know that this is going on – but if profits can be made – and the legislation is now removed that limited banks doing this – why wouldn’t they? why not profit off these loans - through getting back into securitising and betting on these? PPP loans – banks are providing these – but know that a chunk of these are likely bad loans – and can be gambled on if securitized Estimates that 20% of small businesses in the US will cease to operate due to their lockdowns Know that the funds are guaranteed - Could be a large amount of companies that fail – but banks bets are covered What can go wrong? Involves similar hubris to the 2008 crash – as banks thought that mortgages are safe – nobody ever defaults on a mortgage and if they do, then it is only 1-2% - so the rest are safe So all of this could be nothing – but I wouldn’t be surprised if this creates another form of bubble over the next few years as these loans mature Thank you for listening to today's episode. If you want to get in contact you can do so here: http://financeandfury.com.au/contact/
On Market View, Michelle Martin and Ryan Huang discuss IMF's projection of a 4.9 percent economic contraction as concerns mount over a second wave, Qantas cuts 6,000 jobs in a post COVID 19 restructure, GNC files for bankruptcy in the US and Pony Ma, China's new richest person.
Link to bioRxiv paper: http://biorxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.06.06.138065v1?rss=1 Authors: Arrufat-Pie, E., Estevez-Baez, M., Estevez-Carreras, J. M., Machado Curbelo, C., Leisman, G., Beltran Leon, C. Abstract: Considering the properties of the empirical mode decomposition to extract from a signal its natural oscillatory components known as intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), the spectral analysis of these IMFs could provide a novel alternative for the quantitative EEG analysis without a priori establish more or less arbitrary band limits. This approach has begun to be used in the last years for studies of EEG records of patients included in database repositories or including a low number of individuals or of limited EEG leads, but a detailed study in healthy humans has not yet been reported. Therefore, in this study the aims were to explore and describe the main spectral indices of the IMFs of the EEG in healthy humans using a method based on the FFT and another on the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT). The EEG of 34 healthy volunteers was recorded and decomposed using a recently developed multivariate empirical mode decomposition algorithm. Extracted IMFs were submitted to spectral analysis with, and the results were compared with an ANOVA test. The first six decomposed IMFs from the EEG showed frequency values in the range of the classical bands of the EEG (1.5 to 56 Hz). Both methods showed in general similar results for mean weighted frequencies and estimations of power spectral density, although the HHT is recommended because of its better frequency resolution. It was shown the presence of the mode-mixing problem producing a slight overlapping of spectral frequencies mainly between the IMF3 and IMF4 modes. Keywords: Empirical mode decomposition, Hilbert Transform, Hilbert-Huang Transform, EEG, Non-stationary analysis. Copy rights belong to original authors. Visit the link for more info
Today we conclude the report from Adamant Capital written by Tuur Demeester on a fascinating parallel between Bitcoin and the Protestant Reformation of the 16th and 17th centuries. A plethora of new financial tools and the flight to find security in uncertain times, and the many parallels with the role Bitcoin could play in finding a haven from the over-leveraged, over-regulated, and corrupt IMFS. Don't miss a great piece. Links to the original works below. Again, don't forget to follow Tuur on Twitter for tons of amazing content and thoughts on the impact of this new economy. https://docsend.com/view/ijd8qrs https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester Other great episodes for more details and expanding on these themes: • Bitcoin, An Accounting Revolution https://anchor.fm/thecryptoconomy/episodes/CryptoQuikRead_255---Bitcoin-An-Accounting-Revolution-Permabull-Nio-e473tj • What's Driving the Cryptocurrency Phenomenon? An Iterative Capital Thesis https://anchor.fm/thecryptoconomy/episodes/Whats-Really-Driving-the-Cryptocurrency-Phenomenon----The-Iterative-Capital-Thesis-e2u7qq • A Most Peaceful Revolution [Nic Carter] https://anchor.fm/thecryptoconomy/episodes/CryptoQuikRead_293---A-Most-Peaceful-Revolution-Nic-Carter-e5bfpm • Guy's Take - Revolution in the Protocol https://anchor.fm/thecryptoconomy/episodes/GuysTake_23---Revolution-in-the-Protocol-on-Nic-Carters-Peaceful-Revolution-e5cap9 • Bitcoin in Heavy Accumulation Part 1 & 2 https://anchor.fm/thecryptoconomy/episodes/CryptoQuikRead_243---Bitcoin-in-Heavy-Accumulation-Part-1---Tuur-Demeester--Michiel-Lescrauwaet-e3tnic https://anchor.fm/thecryptoconomy/episodes/CryptoQuikRead_243---Bitcoin-in-Heavy-Accumulation-Part-2---Tuur-Demeester--Michiel-Lescrauwaet-e3u1gb If you want to support the show and join the Cryptoconomy Telegram crew, become a patron below! https://www.patreon.com/thecryptoconomy --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/thecryptoconomy/message
Today we conclude the report from Adamant Capital written by Tuur Demeester on a fascinating parallel between Bitcoin and the Protestant Reformation of the 16th and 17th centuries. A plethora of new financial tools and the flight to find security in uncertain times, and the many parallels with the role Bitcoin could play in finding a haven from the over-leveraged, over-regulated, and corrupt IMFS. Don't miss a great piece. Links to the original works below. Again, don't forget to follow Tuur on Twitter for tons of amazing content and thoughts on the impact of this new economy. https://docsend.com/view/ijd8qrs https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester Other great episodes for more details and expanding on these themes: • Bitcoin, An Accounting Revolution https://anchor.fm/thecryptoconomy/episodes/CryptoQuikRead_255---Bitcoin-An-Accounting-Revolution-Permabull-Nio-e473tj • What's Driving the Cryptocurrency Phenomenon? An Iterative Capital Thesis https://anchor.fm/thecryptoconomy/episodes/Whats-Really-Driving-the-Cryptocurrency-Phenomenon----The-Iterative-Capital-Thesis-e2u7qq • A Most Peaceful Revolution [Nic Carter] https://anchor.fm/thecryptoconomy/episodes/CryptoQuikRead_293---A-Most-Peaceful-Revolution-Nic-Carter-e5bfpm • Guy's Take - Revolution in the Protocol https://anchor.fm/thecryptoconomy/episodes/GuysTake_23---Revolution-in-the-Protocol-on-Nic-Carters-Peaceful-Revolution-e5cap9 • Bitcoin in Heavy Accumulation Part 1 & 2 https://anchor.fm/thecryptoconomy/episodes/CryptoQuikRead_243---Bitcoin-in-Heavy-Accumulation-Part-1---Tuur-Demeester--Michiel-Lescrauwaet-e3tnic https://anchor.fm/thecryptoconomy/episodes/CryptoQuikRead_243---Bitcoin-in-Heavy-Accumulation-Part-2---Tuur-Demeester--Michiel-Lescrauwaet-e3u1gb If you want to support the show and join the Cryptoconomy Telegram crew, become a patron below! https://www.patreon.com/thecryptoconomy --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/bitcoinaudible/message
In this episode Drew and Tim discuss the GDP numbers, technical warning signs for the stock market, negative yielding bonds, the IMFs forecast on economic growth and politics both in the U.S. and the U.K. WealthVest – based in Bozeman, MT, and San Francisco, CA – is a financial services marketing and distribution firm specializing in fixed and fixed index annuities from many high-quality insurance companies. WealthVest provides the tools, resources, practice management support, and products that financial professionals need to provide their clients a predictable retirement that has their best interest in mind.Hosts: Drew Dokken, Tim PierottiAlbum Artwork: Sam YarboroughShow Editing and Production: Kyle SteinerDisclosure: The information covered and posted represents the views and opinions of the hosts and does not necessarily represent the views or opinions of WealthVest. The mere appearance of Content on the Site does not constitute an endorsement by WealthVest. The Content has been made available for informational and educational purposes only. WealthVest does not make any representation or warranties with respect to the accuracy, applicability, fitness, or completeness of the Content.WealthVest does not warrant the performance, effectiveness or applicability of any sites listed or linked to in any Content. The Content is not intended to be a substitute for professional investing advice. Always seek the advice of your financial advisor or other qualified financial service provider with any questions you may have regarding your investment planning. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
On the show this week, Peter Bruce and the team take a look at whether Rio Tinto's R6.5bn project is indeed a vote of confidence in SA; our economic prospects given the IMFs latest growth forecasts; and President Ramaphosa's ratings since stepping up as Head of State. Editing Allowed
Business Day TV — On the show this week, Peter Bruce and the team take a look at whether Rio Tinto's R6.5bn project is indeed a vote of confidence in SA; our economic prospects given the IMFs latest growth forecasts; and President Ramaphosa's ratings since stepping up as Head of State.
Vi snakker om konflikten i Kashmir med Saira Basit, førsteamanuensis ved Institutt for forsvarsstudier og visedekan ved Forsvarets høyskole. I tillegg er vi innom Norges kandidatur til sikkerhetsrådet og sammenblanding av asylpolitikk og bistand. Mathias har sett på en studie av IMFs programmer og ulikhet, mens Catharina har lest en bok om Do-Gooder-eliten.
Drought, regional conflict, and slow credit growth are taking their toll on Uganda's economy. While per-capita growth has hovered around 5 percent for the last 20 years, the IMFs latest economic assessment shows it has fallen to 1/2 percent. In this podcast, the report's coauthor Axel Schimmelpfennig, says some strategic infrastructure investment and Uganda's untapped oil reserves could help turn things around. Contributors: Axel Schimmelpfennig, IMF Mission Chief for Uganda
Kaliber kartlägger de många turerna i spelet om ränteavdragen och söker svaret på vilka som lever farligt om ränteavdragen försvinner - och vilka som i det tysta har stått som vinnare. Grafik: Här skulle slopade ränteavdrag slå hårdast 10.30: Chatta med reportrarna om granskningen – Välkommen på visning. Här har ni ett prospekt. Längre in har ni min kollega som är ansvarig för visningen. Och jag kommer att visa er tvättstuga förråd och garage. Så det är bara att hugga tag i mig sen. – Toppen tack. – Tack. – Man får inte gå ut där Vilma. Bara titta. – Det här var ju trevligt rum. Grönskan här utanför är trevlig också. Och så har man en liten överblick över gården. Om man nu ska våga släppa ut de här, säger Kristin Carlsberg och tänker på lilla dottern Vilma. – Hur många visningar har du gått på? – Herregud! Det har varit hur många som helst. Nu har det varit så hysteriskt. Det kan ju inte fortsätta så här. Antingen blir det en sån där bubbla igen. Och så blir det problem för dem som lånat pengar. Men räntorna kommer säkert vara låga ett tag till. Man får ju tänka ett tag innan man gör ett sådant här stort köp. Det är lägenhetsvisning i centrala Göteborgs. En fyrarums lägenhet har ett utgångspris på nästan fyra miljoner. De senaste åren säljs bostäder så snabbt att de inte ens kommer ut till visning berättar mäklaren Leif Andersson. – Jag tror att många är otroligt less på att lägenheter försvinner innan före ordinarie visning. Så de räknar inte ens att det ska bli visning. – Hur har prisutvecklingen varit här i Göteborg? – Den är fortsatt väldigt stark. Jag tror det är 23,5 procent på tolv månader rullande. Och det var nästan likadant året innan. Det har varit en kraftig värdeökning, säger Leif Andersson. Men trots att en lägenhet är i attraktivt läge finns där en gnagande oro över dess värde. Johan Carlberg är en av spekulanterna med frun Kristin och dottern Vilma. – Med facit i hand har man varit orolig varje gång man köpt bostad. Hittills har det gått bra. Men någon gång ska det backa. Då är det bra att ha lite buffet också, vilket vi också har, säger Johan Carlberg. Även politikerna har blivit oroliga över de rusande bopriserna och har kommit överens om ett amorteringskrav som tvingar låntagare att betala av sina lån. Och allt fler röster höjs för att även ändra det så kallade ränteavdraget. Staten ger en skatterabatt på 30 procent. Ränteavdraget betyder till exempel att istället för 1000 kronor i räntekostnad blir det 700 kronor efter att staten sänkt skatten. Summorna syns sällan. Avdraget sker automatiskt i deklarationen. – Jag tänker inte ens på ränteavdragen idag utan det är en slags bonus när man får sin deklaration. Vi gör ju inga avdrag varje månad med ränteavdrag utan det är på något sätt pengar man fått tillbaks vid årsslutet, säger Johan Carlberg. – Vad tänker du kring systemet med ränteavdrag? – Tanken var nog god när man införde det. Om man tar bort det nu bli tufft för många. Vad händer om ett ränteavdrag försvinner? Vilka kan drabbas? Kaliber bestämmer sig för att granska en bostadssubvention som kan påverka hela den svenska ekonomin. För att förstå problemet lyssnar vi på utländska bedömare som länge varnat för konsekvenserna av det svenska ränteavdraget. Internationella valutafonden IMF besöker Sverige med en delegation som bland annat analyserat ränteavdraget. – Tack så mycket för att kom till presskonferensen om slutsatser från IMFs artikel 4- uppdrag till Sverige 2015, säger Craig Beuamont, delegationschef IMF. – Bostadspriserna är mycket höga och hushållens skulder är mycket höga och de båda ökar. Vi ser inte någon omedelbar risk, men vi ser enansamling av risker. Craig Beuamont berättar att av alla länder i EU är det Sverige som har de största skattesubventionerna för boende. – Sverige toppar ländernas ranking när det gäller skattefördelar för bostäder. Och en av de stora skattesubventionerna är ränteavdraget. Riskerna på bomarknaden gör att IMF tycker att Sverige stegvis ska ta bort ränteavdraget. – Vi tycker att det är ett mycket bra tillfälle att avveckla ränteavdraget. Räntorna är för närvarande mycket låga. Och bostadsmarknaden är robust. Det är den tidpunkt då marknaden kan absorbera en sådan förändring, avslutar Craig Beuamont. Den svenska subventionsmodellen med ränteavdrag har återkommande varit kritiserat av IMF och även EU. Så här lät det i Dagens Eko för två år sen: "Hård EU kritik mot höga svenska bostadsskulder. Precis som förra året är kritiken mycket hård mot skattereglerna för bostäder. Den svenska bostadsbeskattningen gynnar skuldsättning skriver EU-kommissionen. Annat EU kommissionen inte gillar är avdragsrätt för räntor och låg fastighetsskatt....." – Yes, Christophe André. – Hej jag heter Erik Palm och ringer från Sveriges Radio. Så kritiken mot ränteavdraget har alltså funnits länge. Även Organisationen för ekonomiskt samarbete och utveckling, OECD, har kritiserat ränteavdraget sen före millennieskiftet och rekommenderade att Sverige skulle sänka avdraget redan för åtta år sen. Christophe André på OECD bedömer att det svenska systemet ger högre bopriser och skapar en bubbla. – Det ger inte människor att bättre tillgång till bostäder utan det driver upp priserna. Om det fortsätter så här kommer det någon gång att bli en bubbla. Bubblan kommer att brista och det blir offer, säger Christophe André, senior ekonom OECD. Bolånen har fördubblats på tio år är nu är hushållens lån över tre tusen miljarder kronor. Men de låga räntorna har gjort att statens kostnader för ränteavdraget har legat på ungefär samma nivå. Problemet är att om de rekordlåga räntorna stiger, rusar statens kostnader i höjden berättar Mats Dillén generaldirektör på Konjunkturinstitutet. – Om vi blickar framåt när räntorna går upp kommer skulderna att finnas kvar. Och då kommer hushållens ränteutgifter öka väldigt mycket därmed de här ränteavdragen också. Så vi tror att de kommer att stiga ifrån 20-25 miljarder idag till 60 miljarder om tio år, säger Mats Dillén. Ränteavdragen kostade staten 27 miljarder ifjol. Kostnaden för ränteavdraget är därmed större än kostnaden för polisen som är 22 miljarder. Trots återkommande internationell kritik har Socialdemokraterna i regeringen hittills inte gjort någon förändring. De vill ha långsiktiga spelregler för bostadsägare. Så här sa finansminister Magdalena Andersson i våras: "Vi har inte haft några förslag om ränteavdragen. Det kan vi notera att det har moderaterna också varit tydliga med att de inte har. Så jag tycker inte att den frågan är aktuell." Kaliber bestämmer sig för att undersöka vilka som lever farligt om ränteavdragen försvinner – och vilka som har stått som vinnare. Och vi får oväntade svar. Vi återkommer till det senare i programmet. Men först backar vi bandet. Ränteavdraget visar sig härstamma från 1928. Principen var att betalar man skatt för sin bostad är det rimligt att även kostnader, så som ränta, kan dras av. Men när fastighetsskatten togs bort för närmare tio år sen ändrades inte ränteavdraget, trots att dåvarande moderatledaren Fredrik Reinfeldt tog upp frågan i valrörelsen 2006. " Och här är ekot. Moderatledaren Fredrik Reinfeldt gav nyss besked i Ekots utfrågning att han vill att alla villaägare i landet ska få lägre fastighetsskatt. Samtidigt är Reinfeldt beredd att titta på ränteavdragen för lånen på huset. – Man kan också överväga att titta på villkoren för ränteavdraget i det här sammanhanget. Men vi har inga färdiga beräkningar." Det visar sig var en alltför känslig fråga. Utspelet dras tillbaka bara två dagar senare. "Ja det gällde inte då och inte nu heller. Jag inser att jag inte är den här typen av robotpolitiker som man förmodligen måste vara i en valrörelse." Inte heller alliansen, som också fått upprepad kritik för ränteavdraget, rörde det. Men inte ens ett år efter alliansen lämnat makten, ändrar sig tidigare finansministern Anders Borg. Efter åtta år utan att röra ränteavdraget sa han nyligen till Sveriges Television att det kan behöva ändras. "Då finns det en risk att skuldsättningen stiger och då finns det skäl att överväga om man kan göra andra åtgärder till exempel att trappa ner ränteavdraget." Ansvariga politiker verkar alltså röra sig runt ränteavdraget som katten runt het gröt. På lägenhetsvisningen i Göteborg tycker Kristin Carlberg att priserna är hisnande höga. – Det känns ju lite läskigt att folk kan låna så här mycket pengar. Att man kan belåna sig så otroligt mycket. Mina föräldrar köpte ju hus på 90-talet. Då vet jag ju att räntorna gick upp hur mycket som helst. Och det blev ju tufft för dem. De har tre barn. Och det var inget de hade räknat med. Det känns lite läskigt det här. Varför sitter det så långt inne för ansvariga politiker att röra ränteavdragen? För att förstå riskerna med ändrat ränteavdrag tittar Kaliber på senaste gången någon ändrade det. Det var för omkring 25 år sen 1991. För de flesta halverades ränteavdraget mot idag och hamnade på 30 procent. I början på 90-talet föll bomarknaden i flera år och det tog nästan ett decennium innan bopriserna var tillbaka på samma nivå igen. Och enligt statens offentliga utredningar, SoU, var ränteavdragssänkningen en av orsakerna. Mats Dillén på Konjunkturinstitutet berättar om det branta fallet. – Huspriserna föll i storleksordningen 30 procent i reala termer i 90-talskrisen. Ungefär hälften av det har man uppskattat att det berodde på förändringarna inom ränteavdraget. Men då gick man också ganska fort fram. Och då ökar risken för mer abrupta rörelser på bomarknaden, säger Mats Dillén. Och även om kanske få numera minns att boprisfallet kom efter bland annat ett ändrat ränteavdrag, finns det de som påminns om det varje dag. – Jag sitter i en väldigt svår och trängd situation. Och vill inte förvärra det mer än det eventuellt är. Anders råkade ut för det många idag varnar om. Han bor i en stad i södra Sverige. Under 80-talet jobbade han som försäljningschef på olika IT-bolag. Vi kallar honom ”Anders”. Han heter något annat och hans ord är inlästa av en annan person. – Det första jag ägde var en bostadsrätt sedan köpte vi ett mindre hus, efter några år köpte vi ett större hus. Med garage och trädgård. Och till slut bestämde vi oss för att köpa ett hus utanför storstaden lite grand på landet, men ändå nära. Jag hade bra inkomster, min fru hade bra inkomster. Så vi kunde unna oss en del grejor plus att vi kunde spara också. Men så ändrades skattesystemet. – Vi hade väldigt förmånliga lån mot slutet på 80-talet. Situationen började ändras väldigt kraftigt. Räntorna steg otroligt högt. Och ränteavdrag har ändrats också. Alltså man kunde inte dra av hela räntan som man kunde göra tidigare. Man blev tvungen att strama åt väldigt kraftigt. Man tjänade samma pengar som tidigare. – Men kostnaderna steg? – Ja. Nu börjar en ond spiral. Han tvingas byta till ett billigare hus på grund av de nya reglerna för ränteavdrag. Men räntorna med lägre avdrag blir till slut ändå för mycket för Anders. Räntorna stiger till rekordnivåer och samtidigt råder en stor fastighets- och finanskris som ger hög arbetslöshet. Anders klarar inte betala lånet. Långivarna tvingar honom sälja huset på exekutiv auktion för långt mindre än han gav för det. Han hamnar nu hos Kronofogden med en miljon i skulder. – Vad hände med din familjesituation? – Naturligtvis började allting knaka. Fungerar inte ekonomin så fungerar ingenting annat i familjen heller. Och på något sätt kärleken försvinner också. Och han förlorar mer än sitt hem. Äktenskapet kraschar. Anders ekonomi klarade alltså inte av kraftigt höjda räntor och samtidigt ändrat ränteavdrag. Han har försökt bli kvitt skulderna i en så kallad skuldsanering. – Jag har begärt skuldsanering vid ett tillfälle och tyvärr har jag blivit nekad det. – Hur mycket har du i skulder nu? – Mina skulder ligger på över sex miljoner kronor inklusive ränta på ränta. – Så en miljon på 90-talet har växt till sex miljoner? – Ja... Anders blir svårt sjuk efter han förlorar sitt hem. Och än idag har hans liv stora begränsningar. – Det är svårt att bjuda folk när man inte har pengar som räcker för dagen. Det positiva är kanske att jag blivit en expert på hur många sätt man kan tillaga makaroner. – Vem är du arg på idag då? – Framförallt på mig själv. Och sedan kanske också på vissa banker och rådgivare. – Vad hade själv för ansvar här? – Det finns makter som påverkar en. Plötsligt blir man liten och hopplös. Samtidigt som man känner som vi killar gör en skam att vi tillåtit en sån här situation hända. Man skäms att man var kanske inte var tillräckligt observant. Skulder ger skam och leder till ett liv i det tysta berättar Anders. Men är Anders ett extremt undantag? Och vilka risker finns idag för att fler drabbas som Anders och inte klarar av ett sänkt ränteavdrag? – Här har ju dels antal ärenden vi hade för som kom in för försäljning under början på nittiotalet, säger Johan Krantz. Han är controller hos Kronofogden. Kaliber har genom en sökning i Kronofogdens dataregister fått ett svar på hur många som fick skulder i 90-talskrisen som fortfarande har kvar dem idag. – Det finns ju ett ganska stort antal personer som faktiskt har skulderna kvar här hos oss. Och de har nu levt med de här skulderna i över tjugo år nu. Man har sagt att det kan röra sig om 25 000 personer. I vissa fall har man sagt att det är betydligt fler. Problemet är att vi har ingen helhetsbild. Vi kan bara se vilka som finns hos oss. För varje enskild individ är det en personlig katastrof. En utlåningsfest för 25-år sen och tusentals lider fortfarande av skulderna. Men vilka skulle kunna drabbas idag om ränteavdraget tas bort? – Hejsan Hans Heggemann söker jag. – På SCB? – Ja. Kaliber besöker Statistiska centralbyrån och beställer fram unik statistik om hur beroende hushållen är av ränteavdraget idag. – Vad jag vet har ingen räknat på det här sättet tidigare och tittat just på de här grupperna som ligger under risk för fattigdom. Kalibers tar fram siffror som visar hur många hushåll som är skuldsatta och har betydande lån och därmed ränteavdrag. Definitionen av fattig är de som har mindre än sextio procent av genomsnittsinkomsten. Resultatet överraskar SCBs Hans Heggemann som tagit fram statistiken åt Kaliber. – Det är förvånande att så pass många som har så låga disponibla inkomster då ändå måste ha ganska höga lån för att komma upp i de här nivåerna. 65 000 hushåll har så låga inkomster att det klassas som under risk för fattigdom, men ändå så stora lån att de får göra avdrag på 500 kr per månad eller mer. Av dem är 24 000 hushåll barnfamiljer. – Vissa av dem kan nog vara beroende av det. Det är klart att ju större beloppet desto större är beroendet. Det finns ju de som hade ett belopp som var betydligt mer än de här femhundra kronorna. – Så för dem skulle det vara tufft om ränteavdraget avvecklas? – Ja, skulle kunna bli i alla fall. Vi ser ju även om man tittar på barnfamiljer så är det många som hamnar i samma situation. De ligger under riskgränsen för fattigdom. Och de har ränteutgifter som tyder på att de har ganska höga lån. Kalibers granskning visar också att det är hushåll med höga inkomster runt storstäderna som får mest skatteavdrag för sina lån. Det beror på att de ofta har dyra lägenheter och villor. 12 000 hushåll i Sverige med dubbel så hög inkomst som genomsnittet får mer än 4 000 kronor i månaden i ränteavdrag. Mer än hälften av dem ligger i Stockholms län. – Runt Stockholm, Danderyd, Lidingö, Täby, utanför Malmö, Lomma, Vellinge, runt Göteborg, Kungsbacka och Öckerö. Där kostar husen mycket. Och då blir lånen höga och ränteutgifterna höga och där får hushållen mycket tillbaka. – Så de är ränteavdragets vinnare? – Ja, så skulle man kunna se det. I alla fall de som får ut de högsta beloppen. Om man jämför en kranskommun i Stockholm och en glesbygdskommun i Norrland i alla fall. 27 miljarder i skattestöd för att låna pengar, mer än kostnaden för polisen. Och det finns ingen gräns för hur stort ränteavdrag en person kan få. Det här reagerade socialdemokratiske ledaren Olof Palme på redan under 80-talet. – Om man har sådana här fall där i sak skattebetalarna får vara med och subventionera upp till 80 000 kronor i skattelättnad för ränteavdrag. Då blir det ju faktiskt orimligt. Men ingen begräsning infördes. Ränteavdraget berör främst bolån, men även andra privata lån kan ingå. Och i Kalibers granskning upptäcker vi att ränteavdraget hos 15 privatpersoner överstiger en miljon kronor per år. Miljonbeloppen överraskar Hans Heggemann på SCB. – Jag blev förvånad över att det var så högt bara. – Men det finns ett flertal personer då som har över en miljon i ränteavdrag? – Mm, det gör det. Skatteverket bekräftar att de förekommer ränteavdrag på över en miljon kronor. Reglerna för ränteavdraget är en fråga för lagstiftaren, riksdagen, säger skatteverket till Kaliber. Kalibers granskning visar att husägare som Anders som blivit beroende av ränteavdraget får ta smällen om det ändras. Staten och bostadsägare bär nu på allt större risker. Samtidigt finns det andra vinnare vid sidan av som i praktiken har garanterats statens beskydd: bankerna. På 90-talet räddades flera storbanker av staten. Även under finanskrisen 2008 fick bankerna stöd av staten. Henrik Braconier är chefsekonom på finansinspektionen. – Det finns inte någon lagtext som säger att vi garanterar bankerna. I och med att stora banker är så centrala för det finansiella systemet så har det funnits en förväntan och det har vi sett i omvärlden också att man tid efter annan löst ut banker i kris. Så på så sätt har det funnits en implicit garanti. Staten har gripit in om det blir problem för bankerna. Och statliga ränteavdraget har varit en vinstlott för bankerna för ränteavdraget innebär att hushållen kan låna mer för samma kostnad. Och större lån betyder mer vinst för bankerna. – Det går ju i huvudsak till hushållen som faktiskt kan låna billigare helt enkelt. Sen är det klart att genom att de kan låna lite billigare så lånar hushållen lite mer. Och det är den här faktorn "lite mer" som gör att bankerna får en högre lönsamhet, säger Henrik Braconier. Hur mycket ränteavdraget lyfter bankernas lönsamhet har inte finansinspektionen analyserat. Men bolån är mycket lönsamt idag. Vinstmarginalerna är rekordstora. – Det ligger högre än någonting vi sett på 2000-talet egentligen. Förra året gjorde de fyra storbankerna vinster på hundra miljarder före skatt, där en stor del kommer ifrån svenska bolån. Och storbankerna delade ut femtio miljarder till aktieägarna. – Ja, bankerna har en god lönsamhet i dagsläget. Svenska banker har god lönsamhet. Särskilt om man jämför hur det ser ut i Europa. – Har det någonsin varit bättre lönsamhet i svenska banker? – Då får vi nog gå relativt långt tillbaka. Vi är nu uppe i nivåer vi såg innan finanskrisen, avslutar Henrik Braconier. – Jag kan inte uttala om vad som är exakt sunt och rimliga vinster. Men det är inga övervinster i förhållande till vad andra aktörer gör på marknaden, säger Johan Hansing, chefsekonom på bankernas intresseorganisation Bankföreningen. Han säger först att ränteavdraget inte ökar bankernas lönsamhet men medger sen att det kan vara så. – Ränteavdraget har ingen direkt koppling till bankers intjäning. – Jag pratade med finansinspektionen och de säger att hushållen kan låna mer för samma kostnad. Och större lån betyder mer vinst för bankerna. Vad säger du det? – Det är möjligt att utlåningen är lite större än den skulle vara annars. Det är ju ett av skälen också att man just diskuterar just att minska på ränteavdragen. Efter senaste finanskrisen finns nya krishanteringsregler som innebär att bankernas ägare och långivare får ta större ansvar om en bank får problem, enligt Bankföreningen. Men Johan Hansing tror att bankernas risken från bolån även framöver kommer att vara liten. – Inträffar det problem på bostadsmarknaden så är det erfarenhetsmässigt, till exempel från den förra finanskrisen i Sverige på tidigt 90-tal, så att det inte är i första hand bankerna som får kreditförluster utan problemen kommer ifrån enskilda hushåll och för samhället där tillväxt och samhällsekonomin i stort utvecklas sämre än vad den gjort annars. – Så bankerna klarar sig? – Bankerna brukar klara den här typen av kriser bra. – Men privatpersoner kan få eviga skulder om de lånar för mycket. Hur ser du på det? – Ja men det är ett system som finns i stort sett alla länder. Lånar man pengar så förväntas man också lämna tillbaka pengarna. Efter intervjun med Kaliber hör bankföreningen av sig och säger att de är bekymrade över bomarknaden och vill trappa ner ränteavdraget. Banker vinner på ränteavdraget, och har mycket låga egna risker på bolån. Johan Krantz på Kronofogden berättar att det inte finns någon garanti att staten går in och hjälper privatpersoner med så kallad skuldsanering. I värsta fall kan bolåneskulder bli kvar för alltid. – Det är ju så lagar och regler är utformade. Att det inte finns någon definitiv preskription på privata fodringar. Till skillnad när man skulder till staten då skrivs ju faktiskt skulderna av ett antal år. – Så man kan bli skuldsatt för evigt? – Ja, och det är ju det man ser på de här personerna nu, säger Johan Krantz. När bopriserna steg fick Anders låna av bankerna. Men när ränteavdraget minskade vid fel tidpunkt vände det. Efter det har han levt på existensminimum. – Kronofogden tar alla pengar. Och lämnar bara det som är ett så kallat existensminimum. – Hur många år har du levat på existensminimum? – Sen -92. – 23 år? – Ja. Så tydligen det finns ingen preskriptionstid i Sverige. Jag vet att det finns kanske de som utnyttjar systemet. Men det är de stora fiskarna som klarar sig. Sådana här mindre, då är det lätt att klämma åt. Jag tänker ansöka en gång till om skuldsanering sen får se. Annars verkar de att jag vill dras med detta till mina sista dagar. Då blir jag av med skulderna... På lägenhetsvisningen i Göteborg säger spekulanterna att de är jobbigt med borallyt. Risken för en bobubbla skrämmer Kristin Carlberg, men samtidigt vill hon lösa familjens trångboddhet. – Det är svårt att ta sig vidare. När man nu sitter i en trea och två barn. Ja, hela grejen är lite läskig faktisk. Reporter: Erik Palm Producent: Annika H Eriksson Kontakt: kaliber@sverigesradio.se
Bernard Fowler discusses his life and career. From singing on the street corner at 16 to his 27 years working with Mick Jagger and the Rolling Stones (as well as solo albums by Ronnie Wood and Charlie Watts). He discusses his early projects with The Peech Boys and Herbie Hancock, to Nickelbag (who changed their name to The IMFs because of Nickelback) with Stevie Salas, and his new solo record The Bura. Bernard has lots of great stories from his amazing career.
Sin duda, los profesionales en microfinanzas de todo el mundo se beneficiarán de este estudio seminal sobre las IMFs de América Latina y de las correspondientes lecciones aprendidas
Resumiendo los resultados del estudio el Sr. Silva da recomendaciones que podrían ser útiles para los operadores de las IFM así como también para los de los inversionistas y financiadores. Alex hace énfasis en la importancia de reconocer a las microfinanzas como una especialidad dentro de la intermediación financiera en general así como la importancia de que las IMFs cuenten con los sistemas apropiados de gestión de riesgos y un buen gobierno corporativo.
¿Qué podemos aprender de los fracasos en las microfinanzas?Las historias de éxito de las instituciones de microfinanzas (IMFs) han sido ampliamente estudiados. Ello, a fin de ayudar en la comprensión de las razones que las llevaron a alcanzar dicho éxito y determinar, para el beneficio del resto de la industria, las “buenas prácticas”. Sin embargo, las instituciones que podrían ser considerados como experiencias fallidas han recibido hasta la fecha muy poca atención.En al conversación con Alex Silva, un pionero de las microfinanzas, se exponen los resultados de un estudio reciente sobre las instituciones de microfinanzas que han fracasado. Alex Silva, lista seis razones principales para la caída de las IMF y proporciona detalles de cada una de los casos de experiencias fallidas que forman parte del estudio en cuestión. expandiendo la frontera del conocimiento práctico en microfinanzas.
Stevie Salas & Bernard Fowler present the IMFs 2010. Interview with Stevie and Bernard and some cuts from the Live-Show with Dave Abbruzzese and T.M. Stevens.
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