Podcasts about inferential

You wash your hands… but did you really get them clean? You wiped down the package… but what if something invisible is still there? You tell yourself it's fine, yet your brain won't let it go. If that sounds familiar, you're not alone. In this episode of the OCD Whisperer Podcast, Kristina Orlova welcomes back Mike Parker, licensed clinical social worker and creator of the OCD Space YouTube channel, to explore the obsessive doubt that drives contamination fears—and the path out of its grip. Together, they dive into the complexities of inference-based cognitive behavioral therapy (ICBT) and how it helps those with OCD step out of fear-driven reasoning and back into reality. But how do you convince your mind to trust your senses when OCD keeps whispering “what if”? Whether it's worries about unseen germs on a park bench, contamination from a package, or the lingering fear of harming others through inaction, this conversation lays it bare. Mike and Kristina break down the difference between healthy caution and compulsive checking, and why the way we reason matters just as much as the content of our fears. They explore how OCD hijacks imagination and certainty, and why choosing functional certainty—the decision to act as if you're okay unless proven otherwise—can be a powerful turning point. Can you learn to trust your senses again? Or will your imagination keep calling the shots? Tune in and find out—this might just change how you see everything… especially what you can't see. Let's dive in!   In This Episode [00:00:03]  Introduction to the episode [00:00:53]  Understanding ICBT [00:01:08]  Discussion on contamination fears [00:02:13]  Addressing invisible threats [00:03:04]  Grounding in reality [00:06:37]  Healthy reasoning vs. OCD reasoning [00:10:21]  Living with possibility [00:12:06]  Inferential confusion in OCD [00:13:33]  Constantly thinking about the unseen [00:14:24]  Helping clients recognize reality [00:15:29]  The challenge of OCD as a competitor [00:16:50]  Understanding reality and OCD [00:18:48]  Trust and perception [00:19:30]  Reality sensing in CBT [00:20:43]  Behavioral change and CBT [00:21:58]  Individualized treatment approaches [00:23:01]  Possibility vs. sensory information [00:24:02]  Relying on senses [00:24:25] Closing remarks and resources Notable Quotes [03:04] "It's true our senses can't detect certain things, but we have ways of dealing with that. They're already established, you know, as far as hand washing routines or, you know, if it's a religious situation, how much you should pray, what rituals you should do." — Mike Parker [06:06] "Healthy reasoning is like, okay, I know the limitations of my senses. I know what information I have available, and then ultimately I'm gonna make that decision based on that." — Mike Parker [07:07] "If you really want to sit on park benches and stop doing that. Let's realize you don't have to actually concern yourself with what you can't." — Mike Parker [15:59] "So, right, what you're telling me basically, is you're walking down the street and you have no visible poop on you, and you don't smell poop on you, and you're thinking about poop. We gotta figure out what's going on there, because you don't do that anywhere else in life." — Mike Parker [21:58] "I'm open about my OCD. There's still a certain way I thought, and next thing you know, you're right back in this anxious state that just feels horrendous.'." — Kristina [23:12] "Even in an area where your senses can't detect anything, the reasonable, rational way to live is to do that functional certainty thing and just to assume you're okay." — Mike Parker Our Guest Mike Parker, LCSW, is a licensed clinical social worker and private practice therapist based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. He specializes in treating obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) using cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) and inference-based cognitive therapy (I-CBT). As the host of the OCD Space YouTube channel, Mike is dedicated to educating individuals and mental health professionals on effective OCD treatment approaches. He is passionate about helping clients understand and overcome obsessional doubt while also training fellow therapists in evidence-based interventions. With a focus on empowering individuals to trust themselves and break free from the cycle of compulsions, Mike continues to be a leading voice in the OCD treatment community. Resources & Links Kristina Orlova, LMFT Instagram YouTube OCD CBT Journal Tracker and Planner Website Mike Parker Website  LinkedIn  YouTube Mentioned Cognitive Therapy for OCD I-CBT Training Online Sneaky Rituals with Jenna Overbaugh (https://www.korresults.com/sneakyrituals) ICBT with Kristina Orlova and Christina Ennabe (https://www.korresults.com/icbtmasterclass) Disclaimer Please note, while our host is a licensed marriage and family therapist specializing in OCD and anxiety disorders in the state of California, this podcast is for educational purposes only and should not be considered a substitute for therapy. Stay tuned for bi-weekly episodes filled with valuable insights and tips for managing OCD and anxiety. And remember, keep going in the meantime. See you in the next episode!

In episode 474 I chat with Catherine Goldhouse. Catherine is a licensed independent clinical social worker (LICSW) who specialises in anxiety, OCD, and relationships.  We discuss Catherine's OCD story, inference-based CBT (I-CBT), exposure and response prevention therapy (ERP), reality sensing, the idea that I-CBT cares about the why, this concept of the feared self, understanding the concept of inferential confusion, the question of whether you can combine ERP and I-CBT, and much more. Hope it helps.  Show notes: https://theocdstories.com/episode/catherine-474 The podcast is made possible by NOCD. NOCD offers effective, convenient therapy available in the US and outside the US. To find out more about NOCD, their therapy plans and if they currently take your insurance head over to https://go.treatmyocd.com/theocdstories Join many other listeners getting our weekly emails. Never miss a podcast episode or update: https://theocdstories.com/newsletter   Thanks to all our patrons for supporting our work. To sign up to our Patreon and to check out the benefits you'll receive as a Patron, visit: https://www.patreon.com/theocdstoriespodcast 

On this episode of ID the Future from the archive, host Andrew McDiarmid continues a three-part conversation with biophysicist and philosopher Kirk Durston. The topic is Durston’s article series unpacking three types of science: (1) experimental science, (2) inferential science, and (3) fantasy science. In this second of three episodes, Durston recaps the three types but focuses on inferential science. He explains how it involves, in the historical sciences, abductive reasoning, which is making an inference to the best explanation. He also explains how such reasoning, rooted in observation, can be used effectively as we consider the best explanation for the origin of biological information. This is Part 2 of a three-part conversation. Listen to Part 1. Look for Part Read More › Source

Values Course “Sync Up: Aligning Values & Vision For Lasting Love” now available! Get registered here: https://stan.store/masteryourmarriage/p/in-sync-together-aligning-values--vision"Are we even speaking the same language?"In this episode, Robert and Sharla Snow discuss the miscommunications that can occur in relationships and how different speaking and listening styles contribute to these misunderstandings. They explain the differences between inferential and literal listeners and speakers, and the challenges that can arise when these styles clash. The hosts emphasize the importance of clear communication and making explicit requests to avoid misinterpretations. They also encourage couples to eliminate the expectation that their partner should just know their needs and instead appreciate when their requests are met. Overall, the episode provides practical tips for improving communication and preventing miscommunications in relationships.TakeawaysDifferent speaking and listening styles can lead to miscommunications in relationships.Inferential listeners infer meaning from what is said, while literal listeners take words at face value.Inferential speakers imply or hint at their needs, while literal speakers are direct.It is important to recognize and understand your own speaking and listening style, as well as your partner's.Clear communication and explicit requests can help prevent misinterpretations.Eliminate the expectation that your partner should just know your needs and instead appreciate when they respond to your requests.Be grateful for your partner's efforts to connect and meet your needs, even if you have to ask for it.Chapters00:00 Introduction and Overview06:12 Understanding Listening Styles12:41 Different Speaking Styles23:26 The Importance of Clear Communication27:30 Eliminating the Expectation of Mind Reading31:11 Conclusion and Call to Action

Do you ever find yourself double-checking if you locked the front door? Or perhaps you've felt the need to wash your hands repeatedly, even though you know they're already clean? These common experiences might seem like minor quirks, but for individuals with Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD), they can become all-consuming battles against inferential confusion. In today's episode of The OCD Whisperer Podcast, we are thrilled to be joined by Carl Robbins. During our conversation, we discuss the concept of inferential confusion in OCD, where individuals confuse their imagined possibilities with reality. Carl explains the difference between normal uncertainty and obsessional doubt in OCD, and emphasizes that OCD is always in the imagination and disconnected from relevant information in the present moment. The conversation also touches on the controversy between choosing Exposure Response Prevention (ERP) or Inference Based Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (ICBT) for treating OCD.   In This Episode [01:15] The concept of inferential confusion in OCD [03:47] Differentiating normal uncertainty and obsessional doubt [08:23] How obsessional doubt manifests in checking compulsions [09:20] The difference between doubting processes in OCD and normal uncertainty in everyday situations. [10:27] How obsessional doubt arises in OCD and the role of inferential confusion in creating selective reasoning errors. [12:55] Choosing between ERP and ICBT [19:21] The concept of inferential confusion in OCD and how it relates to finding effective treatment approaches. [20:12] Different models and choices in OCD treatment.   Notable Quotes [07:06] "Obsessional doubt is based 100% on my imagination, and once you cross over into the imagination, there are endless possibilities.” - Carl [15:33] “I think often people will say ERP has been around longer than ICBT... and that if it doesn't work or, you know, very often people will get a response, but they won't go into remission..” - Carl [19:58] “What's so important is to understand that nobody's wrong. These are models. These are theories that are applied to our understanding of OCD and how to treat it.”   Our Guest Carl Robbins is the Director of Training and Senior Clinician at the Anxiety and Stress Disorders Institute of Maryland. With over 35 years of experience treating OCD and related disorders, Carl has been a mentee of Dr. Sally Winston and has attended multiple trainings through the IOCDF, ADAA and ABCT. He has also presented at the IOCDF and ADAA conferences on OCD and recently underwent individual training with Dr. Fred Aardema, the co-developer of Inference-based CBT for OCD. Carl is passionate about promoting the dissemination of ICBT in the US through various platforms, including consultation, teaching, lectures, social media, and podcasts.   Resources & Links Kristina Orlova, LMFT https://www.instagram.com/ocdwhisperer/ https://www.youtube.com/c/OCDWhispererChannel https://www.korresults.com/ https://www.onlineocdacademy.com Carl Robbins https://www.linkedin.com/in/carl-robbins-3839039/ https://www.anxietyandstress.com/ Mentioned https://icbt.online/   **Disclaimer**   Please note, while our host is a licensed marriage and family therapist specializing in OCD and anxiety disorders in the state of California, this podcast is for educational purposes only and should not be considered a substitute for therapy. Stay tuned for bi-weekly episodes filled with valuable insights and tips for managing OCD and anxiety. And remember, keep going in the meantime. See you in the next episode!

In the realm of mental health treatment, the evolution of therapeutic approaches is an ongoing journey marked by innovation and discovery. One such breakthrough that has been gaining prominence in recent years is Inference-Based Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (I-CBT). This cutting-edge approach offers a fresh perspective on how we understand and address our obsessional reasoning process. In today's episode of The OCD Whisperer Podcast, we are joined by Amanda Petrik-Gardner, a true expert in the treatment of OCD and related disorders. One of the key points we discuss is the difference between obsessional doubt and reasonable doubt. Amanda really emphasizes the importance of recognizing whether our doubts are based on direct evidence or our imagination running wild. It's all about distinguishing between what's real and what's not. We also touch on the concept of inferential confusion. This is when we arrive at conclusions based on a reasoning process that is based on imagined scenarios, making it difficult to trust our own senses and perceptions. But fear not, because Amanda introduces us to the concept of reality sensing. It's all about regaining that trust in ourselves and our own experiences.   In This Episode [01:19] Obsessional doubt versus reasonable doubt [07:57] Inferential confusion and its resolution [09:12] The role of senses in OCD [11:23] Using reality sensing in therapy [13:19] Comparison of inference-based CBT with exposure therapy [18:57] The role of imagination in OCD [18:45] Resources for learning about CBT [20:03] Accessing the online class "Be OCD Free”.   Notable Quotes [05:27] “We don't tend to act on possibilities until something in the present moment tells us to do so. Once we get that information now, it's reasonable to act on it.”  Amanda  [07:41] “Inferential confusion is a fancy word just to say we are confusing reality for imagination. We're distrusting our senses. We're over-relying on possibilities. We're taking things like facts and using them in and out of context.” - Amanda  [13:43] “If we can change the doubt, then everything that follows after the doubt is resolved. But what I mean by that is after the doubt comes the fear, the anxiety, and then the compulsion. If we can address the doubt from the beginning, then none of the rest even happens.” - Amanda   Our Guest Amanda Petrik-Gardner Amanda Petrik-Gardner, LCPC, LPC, LIMHP, is a seasoned Licensed Clinical Professional Counselor spanning Kansas and Maine, and Licensed Professional Counselor across Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, and Missouri. She's also the creator of the OCD Exposure Coloring Book. With expertise in OCD, anxiety, and Body Focused Repetitive Behaviors, Amanda offers teletherapy in several states including Florida, facilitating transformative counseling.   Resources & Links Kristina Orlova, LMFT https://www.instagram.com/ocdwhisperer/ https://www.youtube.com/c/OCDWhispererChannel https://www.korresults.com/ https://www.onlineocdacademy.com Amanda Petrik-Gardner https://www.amandalcpc.com/ https://www.facebook.com/AnxietyOCDTreatment https://www.instagram.com/anxietyocdtreatment https://twitter.com/AnxietyOCDTx **Disclaimer**   Please note, while our host is a licensed marriage and family therapist specializing in OCD and anxiety disorders in the state of California, this podcast is for educational purposes only and should not be considered a substitute for therapy.   Stay tuned for bi-weekly episodes filled with valuable insights and tips for managing OCD and anxiety. And remember, keep going in the meantime. See you in the next episode!

Hear it Here - adbl.co/3WjBwT0Not knowing statistics can lead to a loss of money, time, and accurate information.What am I looking at? What do these numbers mean? Why? These are frequent thoughts of those who don't know much about statistics.“I'm not a number's person” is not a good excuse to avoid learning the basics of this essential skill. Are you a person who earns money? Do you shop at the supermarket? Do you vote? Do you read the news? I'm sure you do.Learn to make decisions like world leaders do.Do you like to make uninformed, often poor decisions? Are you okay with being manipulated by skewed charts and diagrams? How about being lied to about the effectiveness of a product? I'm sure you don't.Statistics can help you make exponentially better calls on what to buy, who to listen to, and what to believe.This book offers a detailed, illustrated breakdown of the fundamentals of statistics. Develop and use formal logical thinking abilities to understand the message behind numbers and charts in science, politics, and economy.Sharpen your critical and analytic thinking skills.Know what to look for when analyzing data. Information gets skewed – often unintentionally – because of the mainstream ways of doing statistics that didn't catch up to big data. Stop staying in the dark. This book shines the light on the most common statistical methods - and their most frequent misuse. This step-by-step guide not only helps you detect what goes wrong in statistics but also educates you on how to utilize invaluable information statistics gets right to your benefit.Avoid making decisions on misleading information.- How to Use Descriptive and Inferential Statistics to Understand the World.- Be Wary of Misleading Charts.- Make Better Decisions Using Probability.- Understand P-Values in Research.- Understand Potential Bias in Studies.Albert Rutherford is the internationally bestselling author of several books on systems thinking, game theory, and mathematical thinking. Jae H. Kim is a freelance writer in econometrics, statistics, and data analysis. Since obtaining his PhD in econometrics in 1997, he has been a professor in major Australian universities until 2022. He has published more than 70 academic articles and book chapters in econometrics, empirical finance, economics, and applied statistics, which have attracted nearly 5000 citations to date.Learn basic statistics and spend your money wisely.Statistics, as a learning tool, can be used or misused. Some will actively lie and mislead with statistics. More often, however, well-meaning people – even professionals - unintentionally report incorrect statistical conclusions. Knowing what errors and mistakes to look for will help you to be in a better position to evaluate the information you have been given.https://www.audible.com/pd/B0BLV8NZ2X/?source_code=AUDFPWS0223189MWU-BK-ACX0-328899&ref=acx_bty_BK_ACX0_328899_pd_us#AlbertRutherford #JaeHKimPhD #Descriptive #Inferential #MakeBetterDecisions #AdvancedThinkingSkillsBook #Probability #Rutherford #Statistical #StatisticalThinking #TheArtofStatisticalThinking #RussellNewton #NewtonMGAlbert Rutherford,Jae H Kim PhD,Descriptive,Inferential,Make Better Decisions,Advanced Thinking Skills Book,Probability,Rutherford,Statistical,Statistical Thinking,The Art of Statistical Thinking,Russell Newton,NewtonMG

Hear it Here - adbl.co/3WjBwT0Not knowing statistics can lead to a loss of money, time, and accurate information.What am I looking at? What do these numbers mean? Why? These are frequent thoughts of those who don't know much about statistics.“I'm not a number's person” is not a good excuse to avoid learning the basics of this essential skill. Are you a person who earns money? Do you shop at the supermarket? Do you vote? Do you read the news? I'm sure you do.Learn to make decisions like world leaders do.Do you like to make uninformed, often poor decisions? Are you okay with being manipulated by skewed charts and diagrams? How about being lied to about the effectiveness of a product? I'm sure you don't.Statistics can help you make exponentially better calls on what to buy, who to listen to, and what to believe.This book offers a detailed, illustrated breakdown of the fundamentals of statistics. Develop and use formal logical thinking abilities to understand the message behind numbers and charts in science, politics, and economy.Sharpen your critical and analytic thinking skills.Know what to look for when analyzing data. Information gets skewed – often unintentionally – because of the mainstream ways of doing statistics that didn't catch up to big data. Stop staying in the dark. This book shines the light on the most common statistical methods - and their most frequent misuse. This step-by-step guide not only helps you detect what goes wrong in statistics but also educates you on how to utilize invaluable information statistics gets right to your benefit.Avoid making decisions on misleading information.- How to Use Descriptive and Inferential Statistics to Understand the World.- Be Wary of Misleading Charts.- Make Better Decisions Using Probability.- Understand P-Values in Research.- Understand Potential Bias in Studies.Albert Rutherford is the internationally bestselling author of several books on systems thinking, game theory, and mathematical thinking. Jae H. Kim is a freelance writer in econometrics, statistics, and data analysis. Since obtaining his PhD in econometrics in 1997, he has been a professor in major Australian universities until 2022. He has published more than 70 academic articles and book chapters in econometrics, empirical finance, economics, and applied statistics, which have attracted nearly 5000 citations to date.Learn basic statistics and spend your money wisely.Statistics, as a learning tool, can be used or misused. Some will actively lie and mislead with statistics. More often, however, well-meaning people – even professionals - unintentionally report incorrect statistical conclusions. Knowing what errors and mistakes to look for will help you to be in a better position to evaluate the information you have been given.https://www.audible.com/pd/B0BLV8NZ2X/?source_code=AUDFPWS0223189MWU-BK-ACX0-328899&ref=acx_bty_BK_ACX0_328899_pd_us#AlbertRutherford #JaeHKimPhD #Descriptive #Inferential #MakeBetterDecisions #AdvancedThinkingSkillsBook #Probability #Rutherford #Statistical #StatisticalThinking #TheArtofStatisticalThinking #RussellNewton #NewtonMGAlbert Rutherford,Jae H Kim PhD,Descriptive,Inferential,Make Better Decisions,Advanced Thinking Skills Book,Probability,Rutherford,Statistical,Statistical Thinking,The Art of Statistical Thinking,Russell Newton,NewtonMG

In this episode, I'm joined by Christina Ennabe, a therapist who specializes in OCD treatment as well as Inference Based CBT for OCD. We discuss.. - an overview of ICBT for OCD - what is inferential confusion? - what are some of the common cheats/tricks OCD plays - how ICBT is different (but not all that different) from ERP - how to learn more about ICBT Christina Ennabe is a licensed Anxiety, OCD, and BFRB Therapist with lived experience in these areas. She is based in New Hampshire with licenses also in Maine and Florida. Christina is also a board member for OCD New Hampshire, an affiliate of IOCDF. Christina uses ERP, I-CBT, and ACT to help her clients find recovery and has also created E-Learning products to provide support for the general public. www.christinaennabe.com IG @christinacounsels course & workshop: www.christinaennabe.com/additionalresources Head to my website at www.jennaoverbaughlpc.com to sign up for my free e-mail newsletter, grab your free "Imagine Your Recovered Life" PDF, and download your free “5 Must Know Strategies for Managing Anxiety and Intrusive Thoughts” video + access expertly crafted masterclasses just for you.  Course and more coming soon! Remember: this podcast is for informational purposes only and may not be the best fit for you and your personal situation. It shall not be construed as mental health or medical advice. The information and education provided here is not intended or implied to supplement or replace professional advice of your own professional mental health or medical treatment, advice, and/or diagnosis. Always check with your own physician or medical or mental health professional before trying or implementing any information read here. Copyright 2023 Jenna Overbaugh, LLC

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: No, You Need to Write Clearer, published by NicholasKross on April 29, 2023 on LessWrong. This post is aimed solely at people in AI alignment/safety. So I was reading this post, which basically asks "How do we get Eliezer Yudkowsky to realize this obviously bad thing he's doing, and either stop doing it or go away?" That post was linking this tweet, which basically says "Eliezer Yudkowsky is doing something obviously bad." Now, I had a few guesses as to the object-level thing that Yudkowsky was doing wrong. The person who made the first post said this: he's burning respectability that those who are actually making progress on his worries need. he has catastrophically broken models of social communication and is saying sentences that don't mean the same thing when parsed even a little bit inaccurately. he is blaming others for misinterpreting him when he said something confusing. etc. A-ha! A concrete explanation! Buried in the comments. As a reply to someone innocently asking what EY did wrong. Not in the post proper. Not in the linked tweet. The Problem Something about this situation got under my skin, and not just for the run-of-the-mill "social conflict is icky" reasons. Specifically, I felt that if I didn't write this post, and directly get it in front of every single person involved in the discussion... then not only would things stall, but the discussion might never get better at all. Let me explain. Everyone, everyone, literally everyone in AI alignment is severely wrong about at least one core thing, and disagreements still persist on seemingly-obviously-foolish things. This is because the field is "pre-paradigmatic". That is, we don't have many common assumptions that can all agree on, no "frame" that we all think is useful. In biology, they have a paradigm involving genetics and evolution and cells. If somebody shows up saying that God created animals fully-formed... they can just kick that person out of their meetings! And they can tell them "go read a biology textbook". If a newcomer disagrees with the baseline assumptions, they need to either learn them, challenge them (using other baseline assumptions!), or go away. We don't have that luxury. AI safety/alignment is pre-paradigmatic. Every word in this sentence is a hyperlink to an AI safety approach. Many of them overlap. Lots of them are mutually-exclusive. Some of these authors are downright surprised and saddened that people actually fall for the bullshit in the other paths. Many of these people have even read the same Sequences. Inferential gaps are hard to cross. In this environment, the normal discussion norms are necessary but not sufficient. What You, Personally, Need to Do Differently Write super clearly and super specifically. Be ready and willing to talk and listen, on levels so basic that without context they would seem condescending. "I know the basics, stop talking down to me" is a bad excuse when the basics are still not known. Draw diagrams. Draw cartoons. Draw flowcharts with boxes and arrows. The cheesier, the more "obvious", the better. "If you think that's an unrealistic depiction of a misunderstanding that would never happen in reality, keep reading." Eliezer Yudkowsky, about something else. If you're smart, you probably skip some steps when solving problems. That's fine, but don't skip writing them down! A skipped step will confuse somebody. Maybe that "somebody" needed to hear your idea. Read The Sense of Style by Steven Pinker. You can skip chapter 6 and the appendices, but read the rest. Know the rules of "good writing". Then make different tradeoffs, sacrificing beauty for clarity. Even when the result is "overwritten" or "repetitive". Make it obvious which (groupings of words) within (the sentences that you write) belong together. This helps people "parse" your Explain the sam...

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: No, You Need to Write Clearer, published by NicholasKross on April 29, 2023 on LessWrong. This post is aimed solely at people in AI alignment/safety. So I was reading this post, which basically asks "How do we get Eliezer Yudkowsky to realize this obviously bad thing he's doing, and either stop doing it or go away?" That post was linking this tweet, which basically says "Eliezer Yudkowsky is doing something obviously bad." Now, I had a few guesses as to the object-level thing that Yudkowsky was doing wrong. The person who made the first post said this: he's burning respectability that those who are actually making progress on his worries need. he has catastrophically broken models of social communication and is saying sentences that don't mean the same thing when parsed even a little bit inaccurately. he is blaming others for misinterpreting him when he said something confusing. etc. A-ha! A concrete explanation! Buried in the comments. As a reply to someone innocently asking what EY did wrong. Not in the post proper. Not in the linked tweet. The Problem Something about this situation got under my skin, and not just for the run-of-the-mill "social conflict is icky" reasons. Specifically, I felt that if I didn't write this post, and directly get it in front of every single person involved in the discussion... then not only would things stall, but the discussion might never get better at all. Let me explain. Everyone, everyone, literally everyone in AI alignment is severely wrong about at least one core thing, and disagreements still persist on seemingly-obviously-foolish things. This is because the field is "pre-paradigmatic". That is, we don't have many common assumptions that can all agree on, no "frame" that we all think is useful. In biology, they have a paradigm involving genetics and evolution and cells. If somebody shows up saying that God created animals fully-formed... they can just kick that person out of their meetings! And they can tell them "go read a biology textbook". If a newcomer disagrees with the baseline assumptions, they need to either learn them, challenge them (using other baseline assumptions!), or go away. We don't have that luxury. AI safety/alignment is pre-paradigmatic. Every word in this sentence is a hyperlink to an AI safety approach. Many of them overlap. Lots of them are mutually-exclusive. Some of these authors are downright surprised and saddened that people actually fall for the bullshit in the other paths. Many of these people have even read the same Sequences. Inferential gaps are hard to cross. In this environment, the normal discussion norms are necessary but not sufficient. What You, Personally, Need to Do Differently Write super clearly and super specifically. Be ready and willing to talk and listen, on levels so basic that without context they would seem condescending. "I know the basics, stop talking down to me" is a bad excuse when the basics are still not known. Draw diagrams. Draw cartoons. Draw flowcharts with boxes and arrows. The cheesier, the more "obvious", the better. "If you think that's an unrealistic depiction of a misunderstanding that would never happen in reality, keep reading." Eliezer Yudkowsky, about something else. If you're smart, you probably skip some steps when solving problems. That's fine, but don't skip writing them down! A skipped step will confuse somebody. Maybe that "somebody" needed to hear your idea. Read The Sense of Style by Steven Pinker. You can skip chapter 6 and the appendices, but read the rest. Know the rules of "good writing". Then make different tradeoffs, sacrificing beauty for clarity. Even when the result is "overwritten" or "repetitive". Make it obvious which (groupings of words) within (the sentences that you write) belong together. This helps people "parse" your Explain the sam...

Link to bioRxiv paper: http://biorxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2023.03.14.532617v1?rss=1 Authors: Mah, A., Bossio, V., Constantinople, C. M. Abstract: There are many ways to compute value. For instance, animals can compute value by learning from the past or by imagining future outcomes, but it is unclear if or how these computations interact. We used high-throughput training to collect statistically powerful datasets from 240 rats performing a temporal wagering task with hidden reward states. Rats adjusted how quickly they initiated trials and how long they waited for rewards across states, balancing effort and time costs against expected rewards. Statistical modeling revealed that animals computed the value of the environment differently when initiating trials versus when deciding how long to wait for rewards, even though these decisions were only seconds apart. This work reveals that sequential decisions use parallel value computations on single trials. Copy rights belong to original authors. Visit the link for more info Podcast created by Paper Player, LLC

Hear it Here - adbl.co/3WjBwT0Not knowing statistics can lead to a loss of money, time, and accurate information.What am I looking at? What do these numbers mean? Why? These are frequent thoughts of those who don't know much about statistics.“I'm not a number's person” is not a good excuse to avoid learning the basics of this essential skill. Are you a person who earns money? Do you shop at the supermarket? Do you vote? Do you read the news? I'm sure you do.Learn to make decisions like world leaders do.Do you like to make uninformed, often poor decisions? Are you okay with being manipulated by skewed charts and diagrams? How about being lied to about the effectiveness of a product? I'm sure you don't.Statistics can help you make exponentially better calls on what to buy, who to listen to, and what to believe.This book offers a detailed, illustrated breakdown of the fundamentals of statistics. Develop and use formal logical thinking abilities to understand the message behind numbers and charts in science, politics, and economy.Sharpen your critical and analytic thinking skills.Know what to look for when analyzing data. Information gets skewed – often unintentionally – because of the mainstream ways of doing statistics that didn't catch up to big data. Stop staying in the dark. This book shines the light on the most common statistical methods - and their most frequent misuse. This step-by-step guide not only helps you detect what goes wrong in statistics but also educates you on how to utilize invaluable information statistics gets right to your benefit.Avoid making decisions on misleading information.- How to Use Descriptive and Inferential Statistics to Understand the World.- Be Wary of Misleading Charts.- Make Better Decisions Using Probability.- Understand P-Values in Research.- Understand Potential Bias in Studies.Albert Rutherford is the internationally bestselling author of several books on systems thinking, game theory, and mathematical thinking. Jae H. Kim is a freelance writer in econometrics, statistics, and data analysis. Since obtaining his PhD in econometrics in 1997, he has been a professor in major Australian universities until 2022. He has published more than 70 academic articles and book chapters in econometrics, empirical finance, economics, and applied statistics, which have attracted nearly 5000 citations to date.Learn basic statistics and spend your money wisely.Statistics, as a learning tool, can be used or misused. Some will actively lie and mislead with statistics. More often, however, well-meaning people – even professionals - unintentionally report incorrect statistical conclusions. Knowing what errors and mistakes to look for will help you to be in a better position to evaluate the information you have been given.https://www.audible.com/pd/B0BLV8NZ2X/?source_code=AUDFPWS0223189MWU-BK-ACX0-328899&ref=acx_bty_BK_ACX0_328899_pd_us#AlbertRutherford #JaeHKimPhD #Descriptive #Inferential #MakeBetterDecisions #AdvancedThinkingSkillsBook #Probability #Rutherford #Statistical #StatisticalThinking #TheArtofStatisticalThinking #RussellNewton #NewtonMGAlbert Rutherford,Jae H Kim PhD,Descriptive,Inferential,Make Better Decisions,Advanced Thinking Skills Book,Probability,Rutherford,Statistical,Statistical Thinking,The Art of Statistical Thinking,Russell Newton,NewtonMG

Hear it Here - adbl.co/3WjBwT0Not knowing statistics can lead to a loss of money, time, and accurate information.What am I looking at? What do these numbers mean? Why? These are frequent thoughts of those who don't know much about statistics.“I'm not a number's person” is not a good excuse to avoid learning the basics of this essential skill. Are you a person who earns money? Do you shop at the supermarket? Do you vote? Do you read the news? I'm sure you do.Learn to make decisions like world leaders do.Do you like to make uninformed, often poor decisions? Are you okay with being manipulated by skewed charts and diagrams? How about being lied to about the effectiveness of a product? I'm sure you don't.Statistics can help you make exponentially better calls on what to buy, who to listen to, and what to believe.This book offers a detailed, illustrated breakdown of the fundamentals of statistics. Develop and use formal logical thinking abilities to understand the message behind numbers and charts in science, politics, and economy.Sharpen your critical and analytic thinking skills.Know what to look for when analyzing data. Information gets skewed – often unintentionally – because of the mainstream ways of doing statistics that didn't catch up to big data. Stop staying in the dark. This book shines the light on the most common statistical methods - and their most frequent misuse. This step-by-step guide not only helps you detect what goes wrong in statistics but also educates you on how to utilize invaluable information statistics gets right to your benefit.Avoid making decisions on misleading information.- How to Use Descriptive and Inferential Statistics to Understand the World.- Be Wary of Misleading Charts.- Make Better Decisions Using Probability.- Understand P-Values in Research.- Understand Potential Bias in Studies.Albert Rutherford is the internationally bestselling author of several books on systems thinking, game theory, and mathematical thinking. Jae H. Kim is a freelance writer in econometrics, statistics, and data analysis. Since obtaining his PhD in econometrics in 1997, he has been a professor in major Australian universities until 2022. He has published more than 70 academic articles and book chapters in econometrics, empirical finance, economics, and applied statistics, which have attracted nearly 5000 citations to date.Learn basic statistics and spend your money wisely.Statistics, as a learning tool, can be used or misused. Some will actively lie and mislead with statistics. More often, however, well-meaning people – even professionals - unintentionally report incorrect statistical conclusions. Knowing what errors and mistakes to look for will help you to be in a better position to evaluate the information you have been given.https://www.audible.com/pd/B0BLV8NZ2X/?source_code=AUDFPWS0223189MWU-BK-ACX0-328899&ref=acx_bty_BK_ACX0_328899_pd_us#AlbertRutherford #JaeHKimPhD #Descriptive #Inferential #MakeBetterDecisions #AdvancedThinkingSkillsBook #Probability #Rutherford #Statistical #StatisticalThinking #TheArtofStatisticalThinking #RussellNewton #NewtonMGAlbert Rutherford,Jae H Kim PhD,Descriptive,Inferential,Make Better Decisions,Advanced Thinking Skills Book,Probability,Rutherford,Statistical,Statistical Thinking,The Art of Statistical Thinking,Russell Newton,NewtonMG

  Dr RR Baliga's Internal Medicine Podcasts for Physicians: MUST KNOW FACTs about Statistics--Descriptive versus Inferential   Descriptive versus Inferential Statistics

6.27 unties a few MLB fantasy storylines (0:39), checks some Fantasy topline numbers (2:47), presents Stats 101 Lesson 5: Advanced Inferential Statistics: Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) (4:10), and reviews Kevin Gausman (23:02).

Link to bioRxiv paper: http://biorxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2022.09.25.508620v1?rss=1 Authors: Han, N. X., Eckstein, M. P. Abstract: Attending to other people's gaze is evolutionary important to make inferences about intentions and actions. Gaze influences covert attention and triggers eye movements. However, we know little about how the brain controls the fine-grain dynamics of eye movements during gaze following. Observers followed people's gaze shifts in videos during search and we related the observer eye movement dynamics to the timecourse of gazer head movements extracted by a deep neural network. We show that the observers' brains use information in the visual periphery to execute predictive saccades that anticipate the information in the gazer's head direction by 190-350 ms. The brain simultaneously monitors moment-to-moment changes in the gazer's head velocity to dynamically alter eye movements and re-fixate the gazer (reverse saccades) when the head accelerates before the initiation of the first forward gaze-following saccade. Using saccade-contingent manipulations of the videos, we experimentally show that the reverse saccades are planned concurrently with the first forward gaze-following saccade and have a functional role in reducing subsequent errors fixating on the gaze goal. Together, our findings characterize the inferential and functional nature of the fine-grain eye movement dynamics of social attention. Copy rights belong to original authors. Visit the link for more info Podcast created by PaperPlayer

6.26 unties some MLB storylines (0:37), checks some Fantasy topline numbers (2:13), presents Stats 101 Lesson 4: Advanced Inferential statistics: PCA (3:53), and reviews Logan Webb (27:46).

6.25 bats around some MLB predictions (0:41), checks some Fantasy topline numbers (3:42), wanders through HOD episodes 0.0 & 0.1 (5:05), presents Stats 101 Lesson 3: Introduction to Inferential statistics: Gaussian Modeling (10:20), and reviews Frankie Montas (31:57).

6.24 walks through the MLB standings (0:40), checks some Fantasy topline numbers (4:44), presents Stats 101 Lesson 2: Introduction to Inferential statistics: Linear Modeling (5:26), and reviews Jose Berrios (27:29)

Hey friends! In this week's episode I will be diving deeper into one of the tips I shared last week related to effectively teaching all of the literacy elements. I find it so important to maximize instructional time, and one way to do this is by creating high impact literacy routines. This becomes increasingly important when teaching the more complex reading skills. One of my favorite routines that I use for teaching inferencing is called "Picture of the Day". You know that I try to supply you with tips and tricks that can be easily incorporated into your lessons rather than add work onto your already full plate. That is why I love using the Picture of the Day routine, as it can easily be done in five minutes or less! What's even better is that it helps students with one of the most complicated reading skills, which is inferencing. I'm sure you've heard of the famous formula which is text + background knowledge = inferencing, but in this episode I'm going to tell you all the benefits of utilizing the illustrations as well.  Join the Stellar Teacher Reading Membership: stellarteacher.com/membership To check out the resources from this episode, head to the show notes: https://www.stellarteacher.com/episode61

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Expecting Short Inferential Distances, published by Eliezer Yudkowsky on LessWrong. Homo sapiens's environment of evolutionary adaptedness (a.k.a. EEA or “ancestral environment”) consisted of hunter-gatherer bands of at most 200 people, with no writing. All inherited knowledge was passed down by speech and memory. In a world like that, all background knowledge is universal knowledge. All information not strictly private is public, period. In the ancestral environment, you were unlikely to end up more than one inferential step away from anyone else. When you discover a new oasis, you don't have to explain to your fellow tribe members what an oasis is, or why it's a good idea to drink water, or how to walk. Only you know where the oasis lies; this is private knowledge. But everyone has the background to understand your description of the oasis, the concepts needed to think about water; this is universal knowledge. When you explain things in an ancestral environment, you almost never have to explain your concepts. At most you have to explain one new concept, not two or more simultaneously. In the ancestral environment there were no abstract disciplines with vast bodies of carefully gathered evidence generalized into elegant theories transmitted by written books whose conclusions are a hundred inferential steps removed from universally shared background premises. In the ancestral environment, anyone who says something with no obvious support is a liar or an idiot. You're not likely to think, “Hey, maybe this person has well-supported background knowledge that no one in my band has even heard of,” because it was a reliable invariant of the ancestral environment that this didn't happen. Conversely, if you say something blatantly obvious and the other person doesn't see it, they're the idiot, or they're being deliberately obstinate to annoy you. And to top it off, if someone says something with no obvious support and expects you to believe it—acting all indignant when you don't—then they must be crazy. Combined with the illusion of transparency and self-anchoring (the tendency to model other minds as though the were slightly modified versions of oneself), I think this explains a lot about the legendary difficulty most scientists have in communicating with a lay audience—or even communicating with scientists from other disciplines. When I observe failures of explanation, I usually see the explainer taking one step back, when they need to take two or more steps back. Or listeners assume that things should be visible in one step, when they take two or more steps to explain. Both sides act as if they expect very short inferential distances from universal knowledge to any new knowledge. A biologist, speaking to a physicist, can justify evolution by saying it is the simplest explanation. But not everyone on Earth has been inculcated with that legendary history of science, from Newton to Einstein, which invests the phrase “simplest explanation” with its awesome import: a Word of Power, spoken at the birth of theories and carved on their tombstones. To someone else, “But it's the simplest explanation!” may sound like an interesting but hardly knockdown argument; it doesn't feel like all that powerful a tool for comprehending office politics or fixing a broken car. Obviously the biologist is infatuated with their own ideas, too arrogant to be open to alternative explanations which sound just as plausible. (If it sounds plausible to me, it should sound plausible to any sane member of my band.) And from the biologist's perspective, they can understand how evolution might sound a little odd at first—but when someone rejects evolution even after the biologist explains that it's the simplest explanation, well, it's clear that nonscientists are just idiots and there's no point in talking ...

In this episode (Part 2/2): Arguing against capitalism; Inferential thought, Market Mythology & Propaganda Transcript: https://www.revolutionnow.live/episodes Also available on Apple, Spotify, Podbean, Google Podcasts. https://www.revolutionnow.live/ Support Peter's efforts through Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/peterjoseph Join Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/RevolutionNowPodcast/ About Peter: https://www.peterjoseph.info/biography Join his mailing list: https://www.peterjoseph.info/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/ZeitgeistFilm Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/peterjosephofficial Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/peterjosephofficial

In this episode, Anjie chats with Hyo Gweon, an associate professor at Stanford Psychology Department. Hyo directs Social Learning Lab, where the research focus is our abilities to learn from others and teach others.  In this episode, she will share with us a very recent review article that came out on Trends in Cognitive Sciences titled "Inferential social learning: Cognitive foundations of human social learning and teaching". Is learning from others really that different from learning about other things in the world? What makes humans so good at learning from other people and enable others to learn from them?  Listen to this episode to find out.  The paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364661321001789To learn more about Hyo's research, you can visit her lab's website: http://sll.stanford.edu/index.html

Support the show (http://paypal.me/SachinPanicker )

We have an incredibly fun guest on the show today! It's Shane Saeed and you may know her over on Instagram as Fantastically Fourth. Shane and I are chatting about all things inferring. Making inferences is something that we do all day long without even realizing it. When it comes to reading comprehension, inferring is one of those very tricky concepts for kids. Luckily, Shane is giving us all sorts of strategies to take back to the classroom. These are simple ways that you can help your students grow their inferencing skills while also having a little fun!   Shane Saeed teaches 4th grade in Colorado. She has a Master's Degree in Curriculum and Instruction with a focus on Literacy and a Master's Degree in School Leadership. She is currently working on her Doctorate in Educational Leadership with a focus on Equity.   In this episode we discuss: Helping our students understand how to make inferences The importance of building background knowledge and remembering that not everyone's background knowledge is the same How Shane uses a 3-column chart as a powerful strategy for isolating skills Tying inferring into writing using the “show don't tell” strategy   Resources Mentioned: Inference 3-Column Anchor Chart Inference Task Cards   Connect with Shane: Teachers Pay Teachers Instagram: @fantasicallyfourth TikTok: @thefantasticallyfourth Twitter: @saeed_shane   Connect with me: TpT Store Join The Literacy Dive Facebook group! Instagram Blog Facebook Page YouTube   For full show notes, head to misspsstyle.com/podcast-episode26

What interactions in character spoke to the player behind them?   Want to help support the show? Come visit our Patreon at: https://www.patreon.com/DMShowerThoughts Visit our Official Website at: https://www.dmshowerthoughts.com For our full library of podcast episodes talking about all things Fifth Edition, head over to Apple Podcast, qwaygm.podbean.com, or www.adamusdrakeproductions.com/dm-podcast.html To visit our friends at Advantage or How Friends Roll, visit: darkmorepodcasts.com Need another news source for all things Dungeons and Dragons? Follow us on Facebook at facebook.com/DM-Shower-Thoughts-110633510361520 And our Twitter: https://twitter.com/DMST_Podcast Visit Ian at our Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/dm_shower_thoughts   Want a custom painted mini, new dice, or blog posts from the creators? Head over to adamusdrakeproductions.com, where you can find the GM’s Corner, Gray Owls Fiction, Dice and Miniatures for sale, and much more!

In episode 4b we, Karina and Bernadette, explain some of the notions of error and statistical concepts. We then discuss one of the tasks from the text and present our solutions .Time cues episode 4b00:00:39 Part 3: different concepts in inferential statistics00:01:09 Inferential and descriptive statistics00:02:18 Error in studies00:03:20 Errors of observation00:04:58 Errors of non-observation00:07:58 Part V: Discussion of Task from: Inference and Error in Surveys00:08:26 Information before starting00:09:19 What are the important parameters of the study?00:10:37Discussion of task 1a)00:11:24 Discussion of task 1b) and 1c)00:15:49 SummaryLinks and resourcesLiteratureGROVES, Robert M., et al. “Inference and error in surveys” in: Survey methodology. John Wiley & Sons, 2011. 39-67.https://talkingtexts.de/episode-4/

In episode 4a of talking texts inferential statistics – mind the gap We, Karina and Bernadette,discuss the text: “Inference and error in surveys” in: Survey Methodology by Groves et al. We explain the meaning of the words inference and error, summarize the text and talk about why it is relevant. In addition, we talk about Sherlock Holmes and how statistics can make the world a better place.Time cuesThese time cues will help you find the topics we discussed or resume where you stopped listening. 00:00:00 Introduction of hosts, topic and text 00.02.34 Part 100.02.34 What does inference mean?00:03:58 What is error in statistics? 00:04.36 How seeing error from a statistician's point of view might improve our lives00:05:43 Part 2 What is the text about and why does it matter?00:05:59 Features of the text we found difficult 00:06:54 Summary of the text 00:08:50 Why is the text relevantLinks and resourceslink to episode page http://talkingtexts.de/episode-4/?preview_id=131&preview_nonce=2021cc2346&preview=trueCreditCover art: Anna MahendraMusic Bela Bartok, Irene Damert, Felix Spieß

The IRF Podcast is joined by Charles Hess of Inferential Focus to discuss the reasons behind China's path of aggressive development across a range of industries and the potential outcomes. ----more----Charles Hess is the Managing Director, President and Owner of Inferential Focus and was a key figure in the founding of Inferential Focus in 1980. Charles also possesses a Ba in Political Science from the University of Rochester.

"G" is for Gadsden flag. The Gadsden flag, consisting of a gray, coiled rattlesnake on a bright yellow background with the words DON’T TREAD ON ME inscribed beneath, became a popular symbol of the American Revolution. Dating back to the French and Indian War, the indigenous rattlesnake had been an important political symbol in the American colonies. Inferential evidence and the weight of tradition attribute the creation of this particular flag to Christopher Gadsden, one of South Carolina’s delegates to the Continental Congress. Gadsden presented “an elegant standard’ to the South Carolina Provincial Congress on February 9, 1776. As a member of the Naval Committee of the Continental Congress, Gadsden had also presented the flag to the commander-in-chief of the Continental Navy, who used a version of the Gadsden flag as the country’s first naval jack.

After taking a week off for Labor Day the group returns to the airwaves.  Therapy conversations are happening in the group's discord, jump in and let your voice be heard.  Michael continues to transition to face to face therapy in his clinic has proven to be great for him as much as it has been for his clients.  Michelle must move, again, less than a month in at her current location.  However, on the positive side, they hadn't unpacked everything yet.  Matt has completed his last CEU hour needed to get his ACE award and he prepares to enter the delivery room for the latest edition to his family.                On today's show, we discuss the impact genetics and dopamine have on stuttering, the use of poetry in the therapy setting, and we look at Social Thinking and break down if it's too ableist. We also look at the news headlines including Big Brother and Blackout Drinking.  This week's Informed SLP looks at the why and how of working on writing.  We also look at our SSPOD Shoutouts and Due Process.     The Discord is up and ready for people to interact with the crew 24/7 with a new website, www.discord.speechsciencepodcast.com. ----more---- SSPOD Shoutout: Do you know an SLP who deserves a digital fist bump or shout out?  We want to know your #SSPODSHOUTOUT, which is recognition for someone doing something awesome somewhere.  Sandy Bennett is most deserving of this week's SSPODshoutout.  Sandy retires from speech and language therapy after contributing to it for 50 years.          SSPOD Due Process:  Do you have a complaint or need to vent, then you want to participate in the #SSPODDUEPROCESS. This week, an anonymous listener sends in the following situation.  A high school student working on /r/ and /l/ says the do not bother them, but teachers report that the student does not volunteer information and has cried during her presentations in March because someone asked her to repeat a phrase.  The therapist states the student is unmotivated in therapy.  Should therapy be continued or move to dismissal? Topic #1:    Researchers look to have identified a possible genetic link for stuttering and a potential link to dopamine receptors.  The next step is to trial a synthetic dopamine drug.  What impact does this have on therapy and does this mean we are just treating the symptoms of dysfluency?     Topic #2: Inferential and figurative language can be difficult to target in a therapy setting.  One SLP looks at adding Poetry to her therapy lessons.    Topic #3:   A study from an ABA group has come up again questioning the validity of the Social Thinking Curriculum.  Could there be some truth to the ABA concerns about evidence?  Should we be using Social Theory to cover up communication deficits or should we follow a less ableist look at Pragmatic Language?   The Informed SLP: The Why and How of Working on Writing. Working on writing is an essential part of supporting our clients' literacy development and research to support it.     Contact Email: speechsciencepodcast@gmail.com Voicemail: (614) 681-1798 Discord: https://discord.speechsciencepodcast.com   New Episode and Interact here: www.speechsciencepodcast.com podcast.speechsciencepodcast.com   Support Patreon – https://www.patreon.com/speechsciencepodcast   Rate and Review: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/speechscience-org-podcast/id1224862476?fbclid=IwAR3QRzd5K4J-eS2SUGBK1CyIUvoDrhu8Gr4SqskNkCDVUJyk5It3sa26k3Y&ign-mpt=uo%3D8&mt=2   Credits Intro Music: Please Listen Carefully by Jahzzar is licensed under a Attribution-ShareAlike License. Bump Music: County Fair Rock, copyright of John Deku, at soundcloud.com/dirtdogmusic The Informed SLP: At The Count by Broke For Free is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License Closing Music: Slow Burn by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License.   Show Links   The Informed SLP: https://www.theinformedslpmembers.com/reviews/the-why-and-how-of-working-on-writing https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.3109/13668250.2019.1698286?journalCode=cjid20 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022219420917338 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0731948717701260   SSPOD Shoutout https://www.timesrepublican.com/news/todays-news/2020/08/speech-language-pathologist-retires-after-50-years/   Dopamine and Stuttering https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/what-neuroscientists-are-discovering-about-stuttering-180975730/ https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04492956?term=ecopipam&draw=2&rank=11   Poetry in the Therapy Room https://leader.pubs.asha.org/do/10.1044/2020-0911-poetry-to-transition-adulthood/full/   Social Thinking https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4893033/#:~:text=Overview%20of%20Social%20Thinking,-Social%20Thinking%C2%AE&text=Social%20Thinking%C2%AE%20also%20incorporates,therapy%20(Winner%202007a%2C%20p.&text=Proponents%20of%20ABA%20define%20behavior,thought%20process)%20of%20the%20individual. https://therapistndc.org/therapy/non-ableist-pragmatic-language-therapy/?fbclid=IwAR3GltEfPNeqrwHovlB5UENZZ_9DkYBymdYDDmjFUHv6ynUfqK3nyNVtTUs   Headlines: https://www.healthline.com/health-news/blackout-drinking-may-increase-risk-of-dementia#Majority-reported-passing-out-from-drinking https://www.republicworld.com/entertainment-news/web-series/big-brother-all-stars-cast-under-fire-after-mocking-ian-terry-autism.html   Speech Science Powered by: You!

In this podcast, I discuss the nature of consciousness as presented by Karl Friston in his article in Aeon magazine, entitled "The Mathmatics of Mind-Time." Friston is interested in the transition from blind mechanistic causation--i.e. B simply happens to occur as a result of A--to teleological causation in which B follows A as the consciously sought goal of an agent. Friston likens consciousness, in a reductionist manner, to any complex system like evolution, the weather, or even a virus. Complex systems share in common a tendency to maximize evidence about their surroundings in a way that minimizes surprise. We can develop an account of purpose in terms of evidence-seeking to minimize surprise that is opposed to entropic tendencies to dissipate energy in random sequences. The link to the article is here: https://aeon.co/essays/consciousness-is-not-a-thing-but-a-process-of-inference?utm_source=Aeon+Newsletter&utm_campaign=a5ff1f090d-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_08_25_12_20&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_411a82e59d-a5ff1f090d-70783053. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app

Your guide to the lesson and the course! --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app

Types of Statistics explainedSupport the show (http://paypal.me/SachinPanicker )

In this week's episode, Dr Emily Dawes talks about her PhD research with Dr Mary Claessen. They discuss inferential comprehension principles and narrative expression in developmental language disorder (DLD).

We talk about the importance of inferential statistics in Data Science. Inferential statistics are a set of techniques used to make generalizations about a population from a sample. One of the tools used in inferential statistics is hypothesis testing. In this episode we provide a couple of examples on when and why to use 1-sample t-tests and 2-sample t-tests. We also argue that the mean or average of a sample means nothing if we do not also consider the variation of the data.

What is Inferential Statistics?Support the show (http://paypal.me/SachinPanicker )

This is part 3 of the series on Mental Models, in which Gianluca and Jared discuss the cognitive biases that often impede aspiring rationalists. They discuss the idea of “System 1 and 2” thinking as a framing for the entire discussion, before exploring 12 of the most deadly thinking traps and how to avoid them. This includes everything from the Planning Fallacy and Anchoring, to more esoteric pitfalls that are yet to be named. Finally, they describe meta-biases—like the Bias Blindspot and the Fallacy Fallacy—equipping your mental toolkit with everything you need to upgrade your thinking.  --------------- Shownotes: --------------- System 1 and 2 thinking in Kahneman's “Thinking Fast and Slow”: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/11468377-thinking-fast-and-slow An awesome resource, the Cognitive Bias Codex: https://ritholtz.com/2016/09/cognitive-bias-codex/ A superb introduction to biases by Rob Bensinger: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ptxnyfLWqRZ98wnYi/biases-an-introduction Yudkowsky on scope insensitivity: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2ftJ38y9SRBCBsCzy/scope-insensitivity [Study] Scope insensitivity: The limits of intuitive valuation of human lives in public policy: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211368114000795 Bayes' Theorem in medical testing: https://plus.maths.org/content/maths-minute-bayes-theorem Bayes' Theorem examples visualised: https://oscarbonilla.com/2009/05/visualizing-bayes-theorem/ Hamburg's philharmonic concert hall that ran 6 years and 1000% over budget: https://www.thelocal.de/20161101/700m-over-budget-hamburg-concert-hall-finally-finished-elbphilharmonie Fascinating studies on the planning fallacy in students' academic predictions: https://web.mit.edu/curhan/www/docs/Articles/biases/67_J_Personality_and_Social_Psychology_366,_1994.pdf Reference class forecasting: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting How to overcome the planning fallacy with “fudge ratios”: https://wpsmith.net/2015/improving-your-time-estimates-the-fudge-ratio/ Spinning the wheel on the anchoring bias: https://youarenotsosmart.com/2010/07/27/anchoring-effect/ “Influence” by Robert Cialdini: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28815.Influence 016 | Free Will, Compassion, and Reinforcement Learning: https://www.podtangent.com/e/016-free-will-compassion-and-reinforcement-learning/ Inferential distances: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HLqWn5LASfhhArZ7w/expecting-short-inferential-distances Findings in Hedonic adaptation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedonic_treadmill#Empirical_findings Dan Harris' “10% Happier” podcast: https://www.tenpercent.com/podcast The Peak-End Rule: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak%E2%80%93end_rule

Statistics I - Statistics and lawyers; What do statisticians do?; Descriptive vs. inferential statistics; Terms used for descriptive statistics; A multivariate date set; Building a histogram; Numerical descriptors; Inferential statistics; Variables used in inferential statistics; Deviations and distributions; The standard normal distribution; The Gaussian distribution; Z-scores and z-table; Calculating with a z-table; Hyothesis testing; Error types; Estimation; How to perform empirical research; The difference between coincidence and correlation; Negative Correlation; The difference between correlation and causation.

Teaching on the last two types of consciousnesses: inferential cognizers and direct perceivers.

Nearing the end of "Absolute and Conventional Realities," chapter three of Mahasi Sayadaw's Manual of Insight, George explains how inference relates to insight practice and how memory relates to direct experience.

Book 1, Part A, Chapter 9: Expecting Short Inferential Distances "Rationality: From AI to Zombies" by Eliezer Yudkowsky Independent audio book project by Walter and James http://from-ai-to-zombies.eu Original source entry: http://lesswrong.com/lw/kg/expecting_short_inferential_distances/ The complete book is available at MIRI for pay-what-you-want: https://intelligence.org/rationality-ai-zombies/ Source and podcast licensed CC-BY-NC-SA, full text here: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/ Intro/Outro Music by Kevin MacLeod of www.incompetech.com, licensed CC-BY: http://incompetech.com/music/royalty-free/index.html?isrc=USUAN1100708

Document no. 2 in the IJATT folder for Dr. DeWayne Knight M.D ATC's CEUs.

Book I: Map and Territory - Part A: Predictably Wrong - Expecting Short Inferential Distances

The second year of what I'm hoping will become an iconoclastic tradition: thinking on 9/11 in America. This show has three parts 1. What is inferential distance and what communication problems does it cause? 2. An explanation and examination of Edward de Bono's Six Thinking Hats (a tools process of parallel thinking) 3. A 9/11 "truther" vs. 9/11 true believer role-play using what we've learned Edward de Bono Presentation: Six Thinking HatsVideo GOAL: Rearranging things in our minds so we can think more simply and more effectively, using existing brain ability ANALOGY: relationship between intelligence (potential) and thinking (skill) is like the relationship between a car and the driver car's engine, transmission, etc... (potential) but performance depends upon he (skill) of the driver Past "attempts" at teaching better thinking: (school) -subject focus, immersion -discussion -mistake avoidance -repetition (the practice of thinking doesn't make you a better thinker, two-finger typing example) de Bono encourages A Tools Process of thinking: create some frameworks that are practiced in different situations the practice embeds skills in the tools take the tool and apply elsewhere the tool is portable ORIGINS OF ARGUMENT: lacking in constructive and creative energy, but good for discovering truth -Socrates: mainly concerned in showing why things were wrong, and then we'll be left with what is right, but rarely had a constructive outcome -Plato: influenced by pythagoras, very focused on "what is the underlying truth?" -Aristotle: from the past, let's create categories (boxes); then we'll analyze things and see where they fit, syllogism Now Add "design" to thinking adding to the question of "what is?" (existing knowledge) the question "what can be?" (construction, creativity, design) The technique (parallel thinking) -instead of A arguing with B, they think together -directing attention to one thing at a time (one hat at a time metaphor) -can be used for exploring different perspectives towards a complex situation or challenge. Seeing things in various ways is often a good idea in strategy formation or complex decision-making processes. It provides a means for groups to think together more effectively, and a means to plan thinking processes in a detailed and cohesive way. Types of hats WHITE (paper): Facts & Information - what info is available, needed, missing, and how will we obtain what we need? RED (heart): Feelings & Emotions - emotion creeps into thinking, don't disguise it as logic "now it's time for my emotions" BLACK (judge's robe): Logical negative, evaluation, caution, risk assessment, what doesn't fit? (easy to overuse) YELLOW (light?) : Logical positive, looking for benefits, how can we make something work? (less natural than black hat) GREEN (vegetation, growth): Creative thinking & Possibilities, everyone makes an effort to participate BLUE (sky, overview): Control of process & Steps, while the other hats deal with components, this hat deals with overall process, decisions, outcomes, summaries ADDITIONAL NOTES: -don't create a clusterfuck in your head, the brain functions in different ways (balance of neurotransmitters) for different types of thinking why you need a bag of golf clubs to play golf, not just a driver -the six hats are not categories of people my example: "working well" with other people, putting ourselves in boxes USING THE HATS 1. Occasional -one at a time, "right now we need some green hat thinking" 2. Systematic -following an agenda, hat by hat with time limit -typical sequence: blue first (set-up), other hats, then blue hat at the end (what have we achieved?) otherwise variable, "do we need to start with the red hat?" Main benefits of Six Thinking Hats method: 1. Allow to say things without risk 2. Create awareness that there are multiple perspectives on the issue at hand 3. Convenient mechanism for 'switching gears' 4. Rules for the game of thinking 5. Focus thinking 6. Lead to more creative thinking 7. Improve communication 8. Improve decision making Bumper Music: Monophonics "Goliath" Phish "Bug" Look Closer: Six Thinking Hats (Book) - http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0316178314/qid=1059757507/sr=2-1?v=glance The Trivium method - http://www.triviumeducation.com/ tragedyandhope.com - http://www.tragedyandhope.com/ Inferential Distance - http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Inferential_distance Illusion of Transparency - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusion_of_transparency

Marie McGinn is Professor Emerita in Philosophy at the University of York, and part-time Professor of Philosophy at the University of East Anglia. Her main areas of research include the philosophy of Wittgenstein, epistemology and the philosophy of mind. She is the 104th President of the Aristotelian Society for the 2011/12 academic year. This podcast is an audio recording of Professor McGinn's inaugural address titled, "Non-Inferential Knowledge." The Address took place on 10 October 2011 at the Chancellor's Hall of Senate House, University of London. This podcast was produced by Backdoor Broadcasting Company in conjunction with the Institute of Philosophy.

Krakauer recounts the evolution of life on Earth focusing on the advent of increasingly complex forms of behavior and thought, identifying the common principles of intelligent biological systems.

Background: Many different cluster methods are frequently used in gene expression data analysis to find groups of co-expressed genes. However, cluster algorithms with the ability to visualize the resulting clusters are usually preferred. The visualization of gene clusters gives practitioners an understanding of the cluster structure of their data and makes it easier to interpret the cluster results. Results: In this paper recent extensions of R package gcExplorer are presented. gcExplorer is an interactive visualization toolbox for the investigation of the overall cluster structure as well as single clusters. The different visualization options including arbitrary node and panel functions are described in detail. Finally the toolbox can be used to investigate the quality of a given clustering graphically as well as theoretically by testing the association between a partition and a functional group under study. Conclusion: It is shown that gcExplorer is a very helpful tool for a general exploration of microarray experiments. The identification of potentially interesting gene candidates or functional groups is substantially accelerated and eased. Inferential analysis on a cluster solution is used to judge its ability to provide insight into the underlying mechanistic biology of the experiment.

Many different cluster methods are frequently used in gene expression data analysis to find groups of co–expressed genes. However, cluster algorithms with the ability to visualize the resulting clusters are usually preferred. The visualization of gene clusters gives practitioners an understanding of the cluster structure of their data and makes it easier to interpret the cluster results. In this paper recent extensions of R package gcExplorer are presented. gc-Explorer is an interactive visualization toolbox for the investigation of the overall cluster structure as well as single clusters. The different visualization options including arbitrary node and panel functions are described in detail. Finally the toolbox can be used to investigate the quality of a given clustering graphically as well as theoretically by testing the association between a partition and a functional group under study. It is shown that gcExplorer is a very helpful tool for a general exploration of microarray experiments. The identification of potentially interesting gene candidates or functional groups is substantially accelerated and eased. Inferential analysis on a cluster solution is used to judge its ability to provide insight into the underlying mechanistic biology of the experiment.

Tue, 1 Jan 1985 12:00:00 +0100 http://epub.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5093/ http://epub.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5093/1/5093.pdf Lipka, Leonhard Lipka, Leonhard (1985): Inferential Features in historical semantics. In: Fisiak, Jacek (Hrsg.), Historical semantics - historical word-formation. Bd. 29, Studies and monographs. Mouton: Berlin u.a., pp. 339-354. Sprach- und Literaturwissenschaften