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This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm on Monday, the 31st of March, 2025. Join us LIVE every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays with James Brodie and James Todd, where we break down the biggest financial market moves and what's coming next!
Our Global Head of Thematic and Fixed Income Research joins our Chief Fixed Income Strategist to discuss the recent market volatility and how it impacts investor positioning within fixed income. ----- Transcript -----Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research.Vishy: And I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist.Zezas: And on this episode of Thoughts on the Market, we'll talk about the recent market volatility and what it means for fixed income investors.It's Wednesday, August 7th at 10am in New York.Vishy, on yesterday's show, you discussed the recent growth of money market funds. But today I want to talk about a topic that's top of mind for investors trying to make sense of recent market volatility. For starters, what do you think tipped off these big moves across global markets?Vishy: Mike, a confluence of factors contributed to the volatility that we've seen in the last six or seven trading sessions. To be clear, in the last few weeks, there have been some downside surprises in incoming data. They were capped off by last Friday's US employment report that came in soft across the board. In combination, that raised questions on the soft-landing thesis that had been baked into market prices, where valuations were already pretty stretched. And this one came after a hawkish hike by Bank of Japan just two days prior.While Morgan Stanley economists were expecting it, this hike was far from consensus going in. So, what this means is that this could lead to a greater divergence of monetary policy between the Fed and the Bank of Japan. That is, investors perceiving that the Fed may need to cut more and sooner, and that Bank of Japan may need to hike more; in both cases, more than expected.As you know, when negative surprises show up together, volatility follows.Zezas: Got it. And so last week's soft US employment data raises the question of whether the Fed's overtightened and the US economy might be weaker than expected. So, from where you sit, how does this concern impact fixed income assets?Vishy: To be clear, this is really not our base case. Our economists expect US economy to slow, but not fall off the cliff. Last Friday's data do point to some slowing, on the margin more slowing than market consensus as well as our economists expected. And really what this means is the markets are likely to challenge our soft-landing hypothesis until some good data emerge. And that could take some time. This means recent weakness in spread products is warranted, and especially given tight starting levels.Zezas: So, it seems in the coming days and maybe even weeks, the path for total fixed income market returns is likely to be lower as the market adjusts to a weaker growth outlook. What areas of fixed income do you think are best positioned to weather this transition and why?Vishy: We really need more data to confirm or push back on the soft-landing hypothesis. That said, fears of growth challenges will likely build in expectations for more Fed cuts. And that is good for duration through government bonds.Zezas: And conversely, what segments of fixed income are most exposed to risk?Vishy: In one way or the other, all spread products are exposed. In my mind, the US corporate credit market recession risks are least priced into high yield single B bonds, where valuations are rich, and positioning is stretched.Zezas: So clearly the recent market volatility has affected global markets, not just the US and Japan. So, what are you seeing in other markets? And are there any surprises there?Vishy: Emerging market credit. In emerging market credit, investment grade sovereign bonds will likely outperform high yield bonds, causing us to close our preference for high yield versus investment grade. It is too soon to completely flip our view and turn bearish on the overall emerging market credit index.We do see a combination of emerging market single name CDSs as an attractive hedge. South Africa, Colombia, Mexico, for example.Zezas: So finally, where do we go from here? Do you think it's worth buying the dip?Vishy: Our message overall is that while there have been significant moves, it is not yet the time to buy on dips.Zezas: Well, Vishy, thanks for taking the time to talk.Vishy: Great speaking with you, Mike.Zezas: And as a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
A week ago, on April 5, 61-year-old Brett Estes took his own life by moving his wheelchair in front of a BART train. He was a quadriplegic and a member of a Quad-Squad which was active in the disability movement. Despite the kind, long-term help of a man named John, Brett had recently struggled with finding enough attendants. We don't know all the reasons behind this tragedy but this death raises the issue of our current, very-inadequate attendant-care system. Another member of our community, Brian Larsen, also took his life a few years ago when he was unable to secure adequate attendant support. California's IHSS, (In Home Supportive Services) system is failing severely disabled people. Our guest, Connie Arnold sees the problems in her own life and she's been attending state meetings, reading legal and policy regulations and generally working to improve IHSS for 35+ years. She graduated from UC Berkeley in 1984 with a degree in Social Welfare, and in 2009 from Sonoma State University (SSU) with a Master's degree in Health Services & Public Administration Policy. With her wide range of academic and professional expertise, Ms Arnold gives specific advice on how we can each play a part in saving lives and advocate for change. You can reach her by emailing: IHSS underscore advocate at yahoo.com.k Connie Arnold MORE DETAILS: Many people with disabilities living in the community are suffering because they cannot find competent, reliable, trustworthy, and stable non-relative IHSS care provider-attendants. Attendants who can perform paramedical services are few and far between. The State of California makes every IHSS recipient the “employer” responsible for finding their own care providers, but the recipients do not set the terms of employment for wages, health benefits, and job incentives. Currently, IHSS wages vary from county to county and is not a living wage. Under the IHSS program alone family members care for 72.1% of people with disabilities and they are often willing to work long hours for near minimum wages. But when family and friends are ill, move away or age out, who takes their place? This situation is especially obvious in the case of developmentally disabled people who live with elderly parents, but it affects people with all kinds of severe disabilities, including dementia, Lou Gehrig's Disease (ALS), children with severe disabilities, and many others. If you have a severe disability you may quality for extra help through a Medi-Cal or HCBA waiver. Here's how to apply: California Department of Health Care (DHCS) Medi-Cal Waivers: https://www.dhcs.ca.gov/services/Pages/Medi-CalWaivers.aspx DHCS Home and Community-Based Alternative (HCBA) Waiver and scroll down to see which local agency serves your zip code: https://www.dhcs.ca.gov/services/ltc/Pages/Home-and-Community-Based-%28HCB%29-Alternatives-Waiver.aspx Connie Arnold Currently, individuals requiring multiple daily attendants are struggling to live independently in the community. People who rely primarily on non-relative providers are most at-risk of being forced into institutions. This, despite the U.S. Supreme Court Olmstead decision which gave people with disabilities the right to live in the least restricted environment with supportive services. Knowing what they know about the institutions, many severely disabled individuals consider alternative actions like suicide. Plus: “Who's in Charge Here?” Commentary by Shelley Berman. Produced and hosted by Shelley Berman and Adrienne Lauby. With thanks to the Berkeley-Disabled E-group who sparked the attendant-shortage discussion. To subscribe to the Berkeley Disabled e-group, send an email to: berkeley-disabled+subscribe@googlegroups.com ——————————Want to Learn More?—————————— In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS) – California State Association of Counties. This group put a ceiling on IHSS wages so that they can be no higher than $1.25 an hour greater than minimum wage. More details about how wages and benefits are set. https://www.counties.org/sites/main/files/file-attachments/ihss_wages_and_bargaining_brief_september_2023.pdf. New rules related to attendant care, in the State Legislature but not passed yet: AB1672 Haney. IHSS Employer-Employee Relations Act (2023-2024) “1.300.000 people lived in nursing home in 2020 at the onset of the Covid pandemic. Nearly half of all nursing home residents were living with a diagnosis of Alzheimer's or other related dementia. Related Legislation: https://mcusercontent.com/e1181a52449c57d4180be5c2d/files/485d2355-f6cb-ed96-b7c5-6b395f82a7ca/EC_Bill_April_2024.pdf “SEC. 2. FINDINGS.1 Congress finds the following: (1) According to the National Center for Health Statistics of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, an estimated 1,300,000 individuals resided in nursing homes in 2020 at the onset of the COVID–19 pandemic and nearly half of all nursing home residents were living with a diagnosis of Alzheimer's or other related dementia.” ———————————————————————————————————————————————————– California Department of Social Services In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS)* History of Major Program Changes 1973 IHSS Program The IHSS Program was created to enable elderly, blind and disabled individuals to live independently in the community. 1978-1981 Equity Assessment Project This was a three-year project conducted by UC Berkeley, in three counties (Alameda, Contra Costa and Marin). Historical needs assessment data was used to predict recipients' level of need for IHSS services. The project also permitted similar awards to individuals with similar needs, thus promoting equity (beginning of IHSS Assessment Uniformity). 1981 Domestic Services Standard – W&IC section 12310 The first state time-per-task standard, known as the Domestic Services Standard, was introduced. 1992 Non-Profit Consortiums and Public Authority – W&IC section 12301.6 Statute was added to allow a County Board of Supervisors to contract with a non-profit consortium, or to establish by ordinance, a public authority for the delivery of IHSS. Federal Funding Approved for the IHSS PCSP On November 2, 1992, a State Plan Ammendment was approved by the CMS allowing most IHSS services to be considered a Medi-Cal benefit under the new IHSS PCSP. 1993 PCSP The PCSP was implemented April 1, 1993. 1998 Expansion of PCSP Eligibility – W&IC section 18937 Statute was amended, expanding PCSP eligibility to include medically-needy aged, blind and disabled persons (previously, only categorically-eligible persons were eligible). Waivers for Personal Care Services – W&IC section 14132.97 The Waivers for Personal Care Services, as defined under the Medi-Cal Program, were required to be provided to persons meeting specified requirements. *Please refer to the first tab titled “Acronyms” for a full description of acronyms. 45 California Department of Social Services In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS)* History of Major Program Changes 1999 State Plan Amendment Local Assistance 2015 May Revision On April 1, 1999, a State Plan Amendment was approved by CMS expanding PCSP eligibility to include income-ineligible recipients (i.e., recipients with a share of cost). Employer of Record – W&IC sections 12301.6, 12303.4, 12301.3, 12301.4, 12301.8 and 12302.25 Counties were required to act as or to establish an employer of record for IHSS providers for purposes of collective bargaining. Counties that had not established a public authority for the provision of IHSS services were required to establish an advisory committee to provide recommendations on modes and delivery of IHSS services. The IHSS Registry sales tax sub-account was also eliminated from the LRF and remaining funds were transferred to the GF. 2000 IHSS Non-federal Sharing Ratios and State Participation in Wages and Benefits – W&IC sections 12306.2 and 12306.3 This bill established the non-federal share to be paid by the state and counties for any increases in provider wages and benefits and associated taxes. Limits were also defined for state participation in increases to wages and benefits. Non-Public Authority Counties Effective January 1, 2001, participation in the non-federal portion of any county-implemented increase in IHSS provider wages, benefits and associated taxes was set at 65 percent state and 35 percent county. Wage increases were at county discretion and limited to no more than three percent above the statewide minimum wage. Public Authority Counties Participation in the nonfederal portion of any increases in wages, benefits and associated taxes that are negotiated by a public authority or a non-profit consortium was set at 65 percent state and 35 percent county participation. Increases in wages and benefits were subject to the following limits: The state would participate in wages up to $7.50 per hour and in individual health benefits up to $0.60 per hour for all public authority and non-profit consortium providers. The state would participate in total wages and health benefits up to $9.10 per hour if wages reached at least $7.50 per hour. Gradual increases to wage and benefits were allowed for these specified providers over the four years following FY 2000-01, up to total combined wages and health benefits of $12.10 per hour in the fourth year. State participation in subsequent year increases would only occur if wages had already reached $7.50 per hour and GF revenue had exceeded the previous FY's GF revenue by at least five percent. State participation in wage and benefit increases in any FY would be limited to a maximum increase of $1.00 per hour.Contract CountiesFunding was provided in FY 2000-01 for the increased state share of cost for existing contract counties that elected to increase their maximum allowable contract rates. (Wages and benefits for contract providers are negotiated between the contractor and their local unions).IHSS Advisory Committee – W&IC sections 12301.3 and 12301.4Each county that had not established a public authority was required to establish an advisory committee. The advisory committee in each county was also required to provide recommendations on certain modes of service to be utilized in the county for IHSS. The advisory committee membership would have to include one IHSS provider for a county that has an IHSS caseload of less than 500 and two IHSS providers for a county that has an IHSS caseload of more than 500. Reimbursement of the advisory committee's administrative costs was also allowed. 2004 Improve Quality of IHSS – W&IC sections 12301.21, 12305.7, 12305.71, 12305.72, 12305.8, 12305.81, 12305.82, 12305.83, 12317, 12317.1 and 12317.2 The CDSS, counties and DHCS were required to perform a number of activities that would focus on improving the quality of IHSS. The key provisions included: Ongoing statewide social worker training. State oversight and monitoring of county QA activities. Hourly task guidelines, with exception criteria to promote accurate and consistent assessments, to provide social workers a tool for conducting assessments and service authorizations. Fraud prevention and detection activities that include collaboration among agencies to prevent/detect fraud and to maximize recovery of overpayments. Annual error-rate studies and data-match activities.IPWThe IPW State Plan Amendment was approved, allowing most residual recipients to be served in this waiver program (i.e., services provided by a spouse and/or parent of a minor child, or to those receiving Restaurant Meal Allowance or Advance Pay). The IPW was approved for five years, from August 1, 2004, through July 31, 2009, and extended until September 30, 2009.2009 Key Provisions of Fraud – W&IC sections 12301.15, 12301.22, 12301.25, 12301.6, 12305.7, 12305.71, 12305.73, 12305.82, 12305.85 and 12305.86The CDSS, counties and DHCS were required to improve detection, referral, investigation and prosecution of fraud in the IHSS program, communication and to develop collaboration between state and county agencies. The key provisions included: Provider Orientation. Provider enrollment including fingerprinting and background checks, enrollment form andsigned agreement. Provider appeals. Fraud prevention protocols clarifying state/county roles and responsibilities including targeted mailings, unannounced home visits and county anti-fraud training. Policy guiding the use of Post Office boxes. Creation of the NOA to inform providers of recipient's authorized hours/services.*Please refer to the first tab titled “Acronyms” for a full description of acronyms. 48 California Department of Social Services In-Home Supportive Services (IHSS)* History of Major Program Changes In FY 2009-10, CDSS approved county fraud plan funding for 45 counties to enable the development of the infrastructure necessary to support future fraud prevention operations. The IHSS Plus Option The IHSS Plus Option State Plan Amendment was approved on September 29, 2009, and the IHSS Plus Option became effective on October 1, 2009. The Social Security Act section 1915(i), Self-Directed Personal Assistance Services State Plan Option, was identified as the best replacement for the expiring IPW program. Statutory Reductions and Court Injunctions A minimum Functional Index Score threshold was created for IHSS Program services and this became the Oster I Lawsuit. The state financial participation rate for IHSS provider wages was capped at $10.10 effective July 1, 2010. This became the Dominguez v. Schwarzenegger lawsuit. The “Share of Cost Buyout” program was eliminated. 2011 Statutory Reductions and Court Injunctions A 3.6 percent reduction in hours was implemented in February 2011 and a 20 percent reduction in hours was triggered by the Budget Act in December 2011. This became the Oster II Lawsuit and part of 2013 litigation settlement. Health Care Certificate Requirement The IHSS recipients were required to provide a Health Care Certificate from a licensed health care professional beginning August 2011. Changes to Provider Enrollment Background Checks Tier 1 – Specified Child Abuse, Elder Abuse and Fraud against government health care or supportive services. Tier 2 – Other items identified in a background check could be waived by the IHSS recipient. 2011, 2013 CFCO The ACA of 2010 (enacted March 23, 2010) established a new State Plan Option entitled CFCO. The CFCO provides home and community based attendant services and supports and also provides increased federal funding in the form of a six percent increase in the FMAP for CFCO eligible recipients. CDSS and DHCS submitted a State Plan Amendment to CMS on December 1, 2011. The State Plan Amendment was approved August 31, 2012, with implementation retroactive to December 1, 2011. On August 31, 2012, the federal CMS approved State Plan Amendment 11-034 for CFCO, allowing the state to obtain increased federal funding for eligible PCSP and IHSS Plus Option program recipients. The CMS approved State Plan Amendment 13-007 effective July 1, 2013, and updated eligibility language for compliance with the federal Social Security Act, section 1915(k)(1) and 42 CFR section 441.510. 2012-2013 CMIPS II Launched The CMIPS II launched in pilot counties Merced and Yolo in July 2012. In September 2012 San Diego joined the pilot. Extensive work and training has been conducted with counties/public authorities, labor organizations health benefit administrators and IHSS recipient/providers. In March 2013 group one launched eight additional counties followed by 20 additional counties in group two in May 2013. Group three (Los Angeles County) launched in August 2013 followed by the remaining 24 counties in group four in November 2013. 2013 Oster I, Oster II and Dominguez Lawsuits Settlement Process The IHSS Settlement Agreement, filed March 28, 2013, received preliminary approval on April 4, 2013. Court and legislative action was required by May 24, 2013. This lawsuit resulted in an eight percent reduction to IHSS Recipients hours effective July 1, 2013, through June 30, 2014. The reduction decreased to seven percent effective July 2014 and will be ongoing, unless action is taken to offset the reduction. CCI – SB 1008 (Chapter 33, Statutes of 2012) and SB 1036 (Chapter 45, Statutes of 2012) changed the following sections of California law related to the IHSS program: Government Code 6531.5; Government Code Title 23; W&IC sections 10101.1, 12306, 12306.1,12306.15, 12330, 14182, 14186, 14186.35 and 14186.36 The CCI, a Medi-Cal managed care plan, changed state statute related to the IHSS program. The CCI began phasing in the eight pilot counties April 2014. The implementation process, including stakeholder meetings, is ongoing. As the IHSS program moves eligible recipients into CCI, it will remain very similar to the current program. The CCI legislation requires the Cal Medi-Connect plan to administer IHSS in accordance with current IHSS program standards and requirements. The plan will ensure access to, provision of and payment for recipients who meet the eligibility criteria for IHSS. Key Provisions: The IHSS recipients will retain the responsibilities as the employer of the IHSS provider for the purposes of hiring, firing and supervising their provider, appealing any action relating to his or her application for or receipt of services and the ability to request a reassessment. IHSS providers will continue to adhere to the IHSS provider enrollment requirements set forth in existing statute. Care coordination teams will be established, as needed and subject to the consumer's consent, for individual care plan development. The teams will include county IHSS social workers, consumers and their representatives, managed care health plans and may include IHSS providers and others as applicable. CDSS will retain program administrative functions, in coordination with DHCS, including policy development, provider appeals and general exceptions, quality assurance and program integrity for the IHSS. The CCI shifts the responsibility of collective bargaining functions (wages, benefits and other terms and conditions of employment) from county Public Authority to a Statewide Authority. This shift will occur for each county when enrollment of dual eligibles into Cal Medi-Connect is complete. This establishes a new Advisory Committee for the Statewide Authority. Each county will be responsible for paying a MOE instead of paying a percentage of program costs. Each county's MOE is based on program expenditures for FY 2011-12, which was adjusted to reflect savings based on the additional six percent FMAP for CFCO eligible cases, county negotiated wage increases and an annual 3.5 percent inflation factor starting July 1, 2014. This MOE requirement applies to all 58 counties effective July 1, 2012, regardless of when the county will begin participating in the CCI. 2013 CCI (CONTINUED) Local Assistance 2015 May Revision The CDSS, in consultation with DHCS, shall certify any agency that is contracting with Cal Medi-Connect for the provision of IHSS. The CDSS shall also develop a written appeal process for any agency dissatisfied with the decision from CDSS regarding certification. As required by CCI, CDSS has, in consultation with stakeholders, developed voluntary provider training available January 2014. Three stakeholder workgroup meetings were held between May 29, 2013, and December 3, 2013. The workgroup meetings included at least one participant from each of the following groups: public authorities, providers, recipients, county representatives, recognized employee representatives and DHCS. On March 27, 2013, the Dual Demonstration MOU was approved to integrate dual eligible beneficiaries as a component of CCI. In an effort to ensure that data-sharing needs are identified and addressed prior to the implementation of the CCI in 2014, CDSS is holding data sharing stakeholder workgroups, the first of which took place November 30, 2012. A stakeholder workgroup has been established to develop the universal assessment process, including a universal assessment tool for home and community-based services. The first stakeholder workgroup meeting was held September 20, 2013. The W&IC sections 12300.7, 12306, 12306.1 and 12306.15 were amended and delinked CCI components to allow the mandatory enrollment of Medi-Cal and Medicare beneficiaries (dual eligibles) into Medi-Cal managed care, the integration of long-term supports and services into managed care plans and the commencement of the IHSS Statewide Public Authority to proceed separately from Cal MediConnect. FLSA Final Rules Concerning Domestic Workers – W&IC section 12300.41, 12301.1 and 12301.24 In September 2013, the United States Department of Labor issued its Final Rule concerning domestic workers under the FLSA. The regulations were scheduled to implement January 2015 containing several significant changes impacting the IHSS program, including more clearly defining the tasks that comprise “companionship services” and limiting exemptions for companionship services and live-in domestic service employees to the individual, family, or household using the services and not third-party employers. Under the final rule, CDSS is required to pay IHSS providers overtime wages and compensate providers for wait time during medical accompaniment and commute time between multiple recipients. CDSS is evaluating implementation options for compliance with FLSA regulations. Policy changes to IHSS provider workweek limitations and provider orientation were made. Statutes were amended and added to provide a limitation of the hours an IHSS provider can work in a week contingent upon implementation of the FLSA ruling. Providers cannot work more than 66 hours each week, less the seven percent reduction while it is in effect (61 Hours). The 66/61 hour limit is based on the statutory maximum hours (283) an IHSS recipient can receive, divided by 4.33 weeks per month. It allows payment to IHSS providers for travel time, limited to seven hours per week, when traveling directly between different recipients on the same day. The CDSS or a county may terminate a provider from the IHSS program if he/she continues to violate the overtime/travel time limitations. The legislation also established a three month grace period for IHSS provider overtime changes, in which providers will be compensated for overtime. Statute was amended to require onsite orientation, completion of the IHSS provider application prior to attendance, oral presentations and written material translated into the IHSS threshold languages in the county. Statute also permits presentations by representatives of recognized employee organizations in the county. 2014-15 FLSA Federal District Court Ruling In late December 2014, a federal district court ruled that a portion of the regulations exceeded the federal Department of Labor's authority and delayed implementation of the regulations. Under state law, the state's implementation of overtime, commute time, and wait time were also delayed pending further action by the federal court. On January 14, 2015, Judge Leon issued a ruling, vacating the Department of Labor's revised companionship services definition that was scheduled to go into effect on January 15, 2015. ———————————————————————————————– Thanks to Connie Arnold for these additional resources! The post Attendant Crisis- Pushing Limits – April 12, 2024 appeared first on KPFA.
就在十一月,加州啟動了由州政府資助的收入保障試點計劃:文圖拉縣和三藩市市/縣150 位脫離寄養的年輕人,每人每月將收到1,000~1,200美元補助。 州官員表示,通過加州社會服務部(CDSS)進行的試點計劃,將無條件向個人提供定期的現金支付,旨在消除貧困、促進公平並支援受助者的基本需求。 州長紐森說,收入保障計劃有助於創造公平的競爭環境,並將為這些『前寄養青年』提供他們追求加州夢想所需的支持和資源。 其中,文圖拉縣人類服務局獲得了1,538,758美元的資助,將每月向受助者提供1,000美元,為期18個月。 三藩市市縣獲得3,439,090美元,將在18個月內每月向受助者提供1,200美元。 受益的前寄養青年的名單也已經確定。 人類服務局局長認為,這是絕佳的機會,可以幫助許多離開寄養家庭的年輕人擺脫貧困;對他們的投資不僅是對他們未來的投資,也是對更廣泛社區的投資。 試點計劃的官員表示,該計劃旨在鞏固之前的收入保障專案(包括2019年斯托克頓計劃)所取得的成功。 研究人員說,斯托克頓市上百名居民每月領取500美元,這讓他們能夠更好地找到全職工作,同時減少收入波動。 而文圖拉和舊金山計劃,將使研究人員能夠跟蹤收入補貼對參與者的健康、福祉、經濟壓力、就業和教育的影響。 事實上,早在2021年,洛杉磯就展開了類似的專案,准許為3,200個洛杉磯貧困家庭提供每月高達1,000美元的納稅人資助,為期12個月。 當時是以隨機選擇接受者的方式,以獲得無任何附加條件的資助。 這一計劃將洛市最初的600萬美元撥款擴大到近4,000萬美元。 項目負責人認為,近450萬加州人生活在貧困線以下,不是因為個人失敗,而是因為政策選擇。 該計劃不僅能有效提高經濟穩定性,還能改善身心健康和親子關係、讓人們更容易實現奮鬥目標。 如需瞭解收入保障計劃,也可以訪問CDSS網站。
This episode is the entire conversation we had with Matt MacNeil and Ed Casagrande from the Canadian Down Syndrome Society concerning their collaboration with Google AI to create a database that can help train Google's speech recognition technology to better understand people with Down syndrome. Donate your voice at: https://projectunderstood.ca Learn more about the CDSS: https://cdss.ca Episode Transcript: https://ifweknewthen701833686.wordpress.com/2023/08/13/152-revisiting-the-canadian-down-syndromes-project-understood-training-speech-technology/2/ Please follow us on Twitter @ifweknewthenPOD you can drop us a line on our Facebook page @ifweknewthenPOD or visit our website https://www.IfWeKnewThen.com to send us an email with questions and comments. You can join our mailing list there and get alerts of future podcast episodes. Thank you again and we look forward to you joining us on the next episode of IF WE KNEW THEN.
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Artificial intelligence (AI) and Natural Language Processing (NLP) are taking over the health industry and renovating healthcare technology. It has for some time now being a Lodestar into improving and delivering quality healthcare. A ton of information is being collected but isn't being utilized simply because the existing technology doesn't know what to do with the data. A recent report from RBC Capital Markets states 30% of the world's data is generated in the healthcare industry, and it is expected to surpass 36% in the next three years. Handling this sort of information is a challenge as most healthcare AI technology relies on simple technologies like rules and checklists.On this episode, Lauren Hickey, the content strategist at Iodine, chats with Diana O'Connor, the clinical product consultant manager at Iodine, and Justin Geradot, the client service operations manager at Iodine, about their new flagship technology, CONCURRENT. Hickey, Diana, and Justin chat about...1. What can prevent CDIs from fully adopting concurrent.2. How auto-assignment works3. Barriers and quiet periods. "CONCURRENT is our flagship software that utilizes artificial intelligence and machine learning to prioritize patients concurrently while in-house. It uses, at a high level, different amount of misalignment of information between clinical evidence that support a certain condition and the actual expectation documentation of those conditions and uses the difference to prioritize," said Justin."CDI is complex. There is a lot of different workflow strategies that people use. CONCURRENT is more than just a technical implementation, we are taking account of different philosophies and workflows," said Diana. Lauren then asked Justin about auto-assignment and quiet periods, and he went on to say:"Auto assignment is a way concurrent distributes cases to CDS's for review. It is one of the oldest features for CONCURRENT specifically to address the problem that scope changes as a result of CONCURRENT. Before CONCURRENT, CDIs way to locate cases was through location or service line. When prioritization is added, balancing for caseloads gets more difficult. Auto assignment instead of using service line to distribute cases uses priority status, assigning cases with more priority first then working their way down.”“Quiet period is how much period a case must incubate before its considered for auto-assignment. This is a change for a lot of CDI departments. A lot of CDI teams want to see cases every two days at a minimum. With prioritization, we set a 24hr quiet period to get the necessary information. After a case has been reviewed, it goes into another quiet period for 12hrs to make sure it doesn't immediately get reprioritized again,” Justin continued. Lauren then talks about query hesitancy and asks Diana about CDSs not querying as much even when Iodine AI says a query is needed. Diana's reply:"One of the things we are looking for is a complete, intact medical record that tells the story of the patient and the sooner we get the documentation in, the better. And with denials coming up the way they are, you want continuity of them in the medical record. It's a shift from getting querying away as a penalty into more as a prompt and querying sooner."At the end of the episode, Justin says Iodine and Concurrent are always changing, adding new functionalities, platforms, and configurations—Retrospect being an example.
Dr. Brian Fengler is the Co-Founder and Chief Medical Officer of EvidenceCare (recently named as an Inc. 5000 Fastest-Growing Company), a company that provides a clinical decision support system (CDSS) that's uniquely integrated with the Electronic Health Record (EHR) to optimize clinician workflows.Dr. Fengler authored a treatment protocol for Pulmonary Embolisms when he was a resident at The University of Virginia. Despite being an expert in the field, he encountered a challenge while treating a 36-week pregnant patient suffering from a massive pulmonary embolism. Like 80% of healthcare decisions, he had to make a snap decision based on a quick internet search. Even though he was able to save both the mother and the unborn baby, he realized there was a gap in evidence-based information available to providers when they need it the most.Looking to fill the gap in 2014, Brian founded EvidenceCare with Co-Founder, Jim Jamieson, to create software that would help physicians make better decisions for their patients and hospital. Before EvidenceCare, he was an Assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine at St Thomas Midtown and Rutherford Hospitals, one of the Founding Physicians and Managing Partners of Physicians Urgent Care, and a partner-owner of the Middle Tennessee Emergency Partners physician group. Dr. Fengler is now revolutionizing decision support at the bedside by providing what clinicians need to give better, evidence-based care.Today, our incredible guest speaker will share more about his journey starting a healthcare tech company, EHR innovation, optimizing clinical workflows, and how the healthcare system can and should be improved.Learn more about https://evidence.care/
Dr. Brian Fengler joins us on the show to talk about the latest in healthtech and innovating EHR technology to save lives in fewer clicks. Brian is the Co-Founder and Chief Medical Officer of EvidenceCare (recently named as an Inc. 5000 Fastest-Growing Company), a company that provides a clinical decision support system (CDSS) that's uniquely integrated with the Electronic Health Record (EHR) to optimize clinician workflows.Dr. Fengler authored a treatment protocol for Pulmonary Embolisms when he was a resident at The University of Virginia. Despite being an expert in the field, he encountered a challenge while treating a 36-week pregnant patient suffering from a massive pulmonary embolism. Like 80% of healthcare decisions, he had to make a snap decision based on a quick internet search. Even though he was able to save both the mother and the unborn baby, he realized there was a gap in evidence-based information available to providers when they need it the most.Looking to fill the gap in 2014, Brian founded EvidenceCare with Co-Founder, Jim Jamieson, to create software that would help physicians make better decisions for their patients and hospital. Before EvidenceCare, he was an Assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine at St Thomas Midtown and Rutherford Hospitals, one of the Founding Physicians and Managing Partners of Physicians Urgent Care, and a partner-owner of the Middle Tennessee Emergency Partners physician group. Dr. Fengler is now revolutionizing decision support at the bedside by providing what clinicians need to give better, evidence-based care.Today, Brian shares more about his journey starting a healthcare tech company, EHR innovation, optimizing clinical workflows, and how the healthcare system can and should be improved.Qualio website:https://www.qualio.com/ Previous episodes:https://www.qualio.com/from-lab-to-launch-podcast Apply to be on the show:https://forms.gle/uUH2YtCFxJHrVGeL8 Music by keldez
This week Marty and Matt discuss: - OpenNode partners with Lemon Cash to bring lightning to a million Argentines - More details of blockfi deal with ftx - Three Arrows Capital files for bankruptcy - Voyager freezes withdrawals and declares bankruptcy - Indian exchange Vauld freezes withdrawals due to insolvency - Core Scientific sold most of their bitcoin - Rizzo on Maximalism - Bitcoin Policy Institute submits report to Department of Commerce - Samourai Wallet v0.99.98e - Zimbabwe introduces gold coins as inflation worsens - Tapsigner + Nunchuck - No reserve requirement - CDSs popping - Power costs in Germany soaring - Nuclear and gas is now "green" in Europe - Cloud seeding in Australia Shoutout to our sponsors: Unchained Capital Braiins HodlHodl Upstream Data TFTC Merch is Available: Shop Now Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel Clips YT Channel Website Twitter Instagram Follow Marty Bent: Twitter Newsletter Podcast Follow Odell: Twitter Newsletter Podcast
Sid Powell is the CEO & Co-Founder of Maple Finance. Maple is transforming capital markets through technology and count traditional finance and crypto-native firms as customers. Joe McCann guest hosts.00:35 - What is Maple? 01:32 - How does Maple determine Credit worthiness?02:55 - Expanding the addressable market 04:35 - Who uses Maple and how they get started08:18 - Defaulting and the recapture of collateral13:21 - Maple's advantages against challenges lenders face in crypto16:45 - Why use Maple: Governance and growth19:27 - From Ethereum to Solana Integration 23:37 - Maple and Composability 27:13- Partnerships and future initiatives29:56 - Bringing non-crypto folks into DeFi / Partnering with Circle32:33 - Views on Contraction 34:59 - How Maple started and where it is going 39:04 - Monetary policies and how they affect Maple DISCLAIMERThe content herein is provided for educational, informational, and entertainment purposes only, without any express or implied warranty of any kind, including warranties of accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose. Those who appear in the content may have a financial interest in any projects referenced, and any content herein is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other advice. This content is intended to be general in nature and is not specific to you, the user or anyone else. You should not make any decision, financial, investment, trading or otherwise, based on any of the information presented without undertaking independent due diligence and consultation with a professional advisor. Joe (00:09):Hey everybody. Welcome back to The Solana Podcast. I'm your guest host, Joe McCann. And today, I have the pleasure of speaking with Maple Finance CEO and founder, Sid Powell. Sid, welcome.Sid (00:22):Hey Joe. Thanks for having me. Great to be here.Joe (00:24):My pleasure. I've been looking forward to this one. For the folks that aren't necessarily familiar with Maple Finance. Can you just maybe give a brief introduction as to who you guys are and what you do?Sid (00:35):So, Maple is a DeFi lending platform. We think of ourselves as a marketplace for institutional lending. So, the right type of mental model to think about that with is, in the same way that Shopify provides out of the box tooling to run an eCommerce business. What Maple is trying to do is provide tooling to run a lending business that just happens to be on chain. So the way that Maple works at a high level is you have managers of pools, we call them delegates, they'll set up a pool, which is like an on chain lending business or on chain credit fund, people and institutions deposit into that. And then, the manager goes and originates loans to corporate borrowers out of it. So, it's recreating a TradFi credit fund or a TradFi lending business, but doing this on-chain.Joe (01:18):That raises a first question for me, that is, if I'm providing a loan to an actual business, how does Maple go about determining the credit worthiness of that particular business?Sid (01:32):It's a good question. And, what we've tried to do with Maple is be asset light, in that, Maple does not want to be the lender or the balance sheet lender itself. Instead, what we're trying to do is give people who have the expertise to underwrite and assess credit. So I think, people who were in credit teams at financial institutions before, or they might have been in investment banking, but they understand credit and underwriting loans. What they're doing is they would follow a fairly conventional process where they would meet the management of the borrower, assess their financials, so balance sheet profitability, and then enter a loan contract with them, and set commercial terms around it. So, it is replicating a fairly conventional and tried and true process of assessing whether a borrower can repay the loan. It's not really reliant on on-chain determinants of credit worthiness in that respect. Really where the blockchain comes in is actually settlement and management of loans and portfolios of loans.Joe (02:28):Got it. That makes total sense. I mean, you're really saying, "Hey look, TradFi folks that understand how to evaluate credit, and credit risk, and credit worthiness, here's a new avenue for you to do this, which is on chain." And so, does that imply that there's more or less a much larger market for this, or is it more just breaking down the barriers of how TradFi credit funds, or credit debts actually tend to work?Sid (02:55):It's both. I often like looking at business history and one of the things I was always really interested in was the way that when Sony released the Walkman, it actually expanded the addressable market of people listening to music, because they made it more portable and therefore easier to access. And so, I think with this, what we're trying to do is we're breaking down the workflows of running a lending business, but we're making it 10X simpler and less costly to run and operate that lending business or credit fund. And so, I think what that does, it actually expands the addressable market of people who can do credit to businesses, institutions and corporate borrowers. I think that market's really underserved, and I think that's actually going to crimp innovation and entrepreneurship in the economy and in the private sector.Sid (03:41):And so, what we're trying to do is expand the supply of people who can operate and run lending businesses, so that the private sector can get access to more and better credit. And the demand for that is not really being well met by the banking sector today. So I think, there are a few suppliers in the private credit or private debt markets. These would include players like Fortress Group. But I think with this technology, if we're successful, we should see a lot more of those types of players, because it will be significantly easier to set up and run that business. Those businesses will be more profitable to run. And, this is beneficial for the economy.Joe (04:19):And so, how does someone get started with Maple then? I mean, it sounds like there may be a couple of different avenues. I just want to make sure we go through the permutations of the opportunities for, say, individuals or actual companies that want to create this Fortress 2.0, if you will.Sid (04:37):Yeah. So, the central company or user of the platform, that role, we call it a delegate. But that's the manager of a pool. And so, they're, in effect, your lending business that's being conducted on chain. So those types of players, how they would get started, they go through due diligence with us. And then, once they're admitted to the platform, we really want to go through and see what sector they would be lending to, how they would attract institutions or individuals to lend into their pools, and then who on the other side are going to be the borrowers. We want to make sure that it's either a new sector. It's a growing, it's a profitable sector. It's one where there are fairly credit worthy borrowers. We're trying not to get into things that are too speculative. It's not for small businesses and for startups. It's more for established companies that are profitable, that have a great track record, and a big opportunity.Sid (05:31):So, that's one side. And then on the other side, institutions who are going to lend into the platform or individuals. I mean, this could be wealth aggregators, hedge funds, family offices, high net worths. But what they're looking for is a place to park capital and pretty simply earn a yield. That yield is going to be higher than going into things like AVA or Compound, because you're taking credit risk. You are lending to corporate borrowers. And so there is risk involved in that. But, generally these types of players have a fairly long time horizon and they're reasonably sophisticated in their understanding. So, that's lenders.Sid (06:07):And then, the other side is borrowers. Now these are typically corporates who are crypto native at the moment. So, that's the small wedge. If you think about, when you're going to attack a market, you have to start with a wedge. And what we did was started with crypto native companies who are generally market makers, high frequency traders, or arbitrage traders. But, that's one sector within the crypto industry that we can attack first. And then, next we want to look at other sub sectors, which could be infrastructure. So it could be players like Figment, Blockdaemon, Chorus. Could be Bitcoin minors, like Marathon, Core Scientific, any of these publicly listed players, or even large private players. And then beyond that, we want to start to look at SaaS companies. The goal here is not to live solely within crypto. We think crypto is tremendous infrastructure, but it's infrastructure that gives us an edge over traditional finance. And so, that's not really going to be successful until you can actually bridge and replace traditional finance in lending to those sectors.Joe (07:09):Yeah. That's really smart. Spoken like a true founder too. You got to start with your wedge and expand from there. I love that. This raises an interesting point though, today, starting with, say, crypto companies, I think makes a ton of sense. But more importantly, when folks create a pool and then, say, a family office or an institution decides to lend into that pool, what happens if someone defaults, right? So, in traditional finance and I'm definitely butchering this a little bit just to keep it short, but let's assume a business goes to a traditional bank and says, "I'd like to borrow a million dollars for working capital." And they say, "Well, what's your business?" "Well, my business is..." I don't know, "We build warehouses." Or something, right? And they say, "Well, what are you going to pledge as collateral?" Well, maybe they own the land, right, that they're going to build these warehouses on or something.Joe (07:56):In theory, and maybe even in practice, if they were to default on that loan, the lender would then have a legal claim against, say, the land that they pledge as collateral. How does that work? Not only necessarily just in the wedge that you're using with crypto companies today, but as you move towards, call it, infrastructure companies and even potentially SaaS businesses, how does default work in the recapture of that collateral?Sid (08:24):The way that lending began in crypto was largely over collateralized and it was using liquid financial assets, cryptocurrency, to serve as that collateral. And then, the lender would take possession of it, and then liquidate it if it drop below a certain rate, or if the borrower fails to repay. It's now evolved towards under collateralized lending. Certainly most institutions borrow under-collateralized now. And this means really what you're having to do is underwrite and assess the strength of their balance sheet. A lot of people think that this is an aberration, but this is actually most commercial lending.Sid (08:56):So, if you're lending against real estate, that would typically be an asset backed lend. But if you're lending to say Apple or a large technology company, typically they don't have a lot of property plant and equipment. They don't own a lot of land and you're not going to get your money back by being able to sell their land. Instead, what you're looking at is the equity of their balance sheet and the profitability of their business. And so, where this type of lending can evolve would be effectively a secured loan, but the security for that loan would be a charge over that corporate entity. So that's what we're looking at as we expand into other sectors.Sid (09:38):But, I think, to be able to actually serve the broad corporate market and eventually have Fortune 500 companies borrowing through DeFi, you need to get comfortable with that type of risk, which means assessing the balance sheet of a borrower. I will say that, if you take security over a house and a borrower defaults, the foreclosure process is about 18 months. You'll get your money back, but it will take a significant amount of time. So it's not liquid collateral. And anyone who thinks that DeFi lending against those type of assets is going to give them an instant payback if there's a default, is going to be disappointed. But, if you're lending against the assets of a corporate, you want to make sure, ideally, they're not going to default. Your recovery's going to be lower than if you're lending against a house. But, your probability of default is probably also correspondingly lower if you're lending to a large corporate than an individual who just owns a house or a small business, who's pledging a house as collateral.Sid (10:34):You are still lending against effectively the strength of the business and the profitability of the business. But, as crypto goes into other sectors, I can see asset backed loans also playing a role. We would look at real estate backed loans, but currently one of the main issues is that, that requires paper filing in any individual state that you borrow from. So, it's not even 10 years behind, it's 40 years behind in terms of actually having to file security and manage the opposite of that.Joe (11:02):Got it. Very helpful answer. I think, the takeaway really is, "Look, if you're lending money to Apple..." I love that example. "You're not necessarily having them pledge their One Infinite Loop address and ownership of that land as collateral." You're saying, "Look, it's Apple, right? They've got a ton of cash on their balance sheet, or they've got great potential for future cash flows, et cetera, et cetera. We're just taking that to something like Maple's platform and folks can assess." Like you said, it's really up to the lenders to assess the credit worthiness, right?Sid (11:33):One of the innovations that we've tried to build in is that if you're coming to the platform and you want to deposit into a pool, you don't have to be a sophisticated underwriter yourself. What we're trying to build is a way for you to assess that here's a pool that is lending to this risk profile.Sid (11:50):Let's say, mega cap companies based in the U.S., here's the historical performance. It's earned this much in yield. There have been X number of defaults. And then, you have a bio on the management team that is making those lending decisions. And that enables you to decide, "Okay, I'm going to allocate a bit into this pool and maybe a bit into a second pool." Rather than, you having to come to the platform and go, "Well, do I want to lend to company A? Or do I want to lend to company B?" Because, it's not really in most people's expertise or ability to devote that time to doing that. And I think that was why earlier peer-to-peer lending platforms like Lending Club didn't quite take off and achieve widespread adoption, because that model is just super inefficient for both the borrower who's coming to a platform and doesn't know who they can borrow from, as well as the lenders who come to the platform and don't know how to assess whether Apple is going to repay its loan. Apple's probably a poor example, but some other company.Joe (12:48):Well, and speaking of defaults, we would be remiss not to talk a little bit about some of the challenges facing the lending industry in crypto right now, without having to necessarily name names. I think it's pretty well understood at this point that there's been some stress in the credit markets, if you will, when it comes to crypto. Can you talk a little bit about maybe how Maple does or does not "hedge" against that, being more of the facilitator and it's really on the lender's ability to evaluate that risk? Or, are there any sort of advantages that Maple provides that theoretically could have mitigated some of the challenges that some of the lenders in crypto have faced?Sid (13:29):So there's probably three key advantages or differences for doing this in DeFi, which would've been risk mitigants. So, the way that Maple works is you have multiple pools, each pool is a basket of loans that you can deposit into and effectively you're lending to those borrowers on the other side. Number one is that, all of the loans and flow of funds is totally transparent and on chain. So if you go into a Maple pool, you can see who the 25 different borrowers are. So you'd never have a situation where you wake up tomorrow and you find out that a Maple pool was actually lending to a borrower that you had no idea about. And that that borrower was 30% of the pool. So, transparency is risked mitigant number one.Sid (14:05):Number two is that the withdrawals and flow of liquidity is all just governed by smart contracts. So, as cash flows back into the pools, people can withdraw. So, you'd never have a situation where you go and you find that on a discretionary basis withdrawals have been halted. At the moment, liquidity is constrained, but it's purely dependent on just paybacks of the loans, which are coming through over the next 60, 90 days and beyond. And then, element three, as you can see that, there is a reserve for each of the pools. So the reserve is there and it can absorb some of the credit losses. I would say, our reserves in the pools at the moment are probably undersized where they should be on a normalized basis and that's a learning, but conceptually having that reserve on chain, I think, gives people who are lending inter pools and into protocols comfort when they can effectively see the buffer that is available to protect people who are a senior there. Otherwise, contrasting that with more black box CeFi lending, it's just a feature that is not there.Joe (15:08):Weird. So you mean more transparency is actually better for market participants?Sid (15:13):Well, I think, yeah, at this stage with current events, it's a clear argument, yes. I think, where CeFi lending has advantages is obviously in flexibility, having a protocol and being governed by those rules obviously creates inflexibility and slows things down a bit. But, I would say ultimately what we're actually trying to design is a system that is resilient and robust enough to shocks that it doesn't require a bail in, or a lender of last resort concept, because over a long enough period of time, you will see enough volatility that stresses things that rely on a single counterparty. We saw during the GFC, everyone was insured by AIG. Well, when there was an out-sized level of defaults, AIG went bust, then no one was insured.Joe (16:03):That's right. Yeah. It's interesting, I was chatting with a coworker of mine who was at Lehman Brothers during the GFC and he was having a little bit of flashbacks to some of the stuff that's been happening in crypto today with the CeFi-related lending.Sid (16:17):Yeah.Joe (16:17):Let's talk a little bit about Maple itself. So the protocol, this is obviously The Solana Podcast, we're going to get into the Solana integration in a second, but I really wanted to provide the listeners with a fairly solid understanding of the actual product and the business, and also the business of lending. So they could understand maybe what Maple's token is, and what does the protocol do, and how does governance work? So, could you maybe just talk a little bit about if I'm a Maple token holder, and maybe I'm staking Maple, why have this protocol, and what does the governance actually do for the future of Maple's growth?Sid (16:54):It's a good question. And so, the way that the token fits into things is, it can be staked. So, that's the first use. The second is that, when you stake it can be deposited into that pool cover. Pool cover is your subordinate reserve. And so, the purpose that therefore provides is, providing a safeguard and some absorption for credit losses, in addition to being used as the governance token to make decisions on the platform. So, what you would do then, in terms of a workflow, so you might stake it, then you're receiving a portion of the establishment fees.Sid (17:27):So, Protocol Treasury earns about 66 basis points on loan origination volume, and then half of that goes to pay stake tokens. And then, the other element where the stake token participates, is that, if it's put in pool cover, pool cover is paid a portion of the interest. So, generally in most pools, it's about 10% of the interest cash flow. So, if a pool is a billion dollars, paying 10% on average, it's a $100 million in interest, 10% of that, so $10 million would go to pool cover. So it's going to pay effectively for credit protection there. That pool cover is comprised of the token and USDC. In future, we'll just have single-sided depositing of the token.Sid (18:10):But therefore, it receives a portion of revenues for actively participating in the credit protection of the pools and the senior lenders on the platform. So, that's how it figures in the platform both economically and from a risk allocation perspective. And I think, risk allocation is super important, because as I alluded to before, this is one of the ways in which we're trying to fix some of the problems inherent in TradFi lending. So, an alignment of incentives is super important and the pool delegate, so that team of managers who are deciding who are good borrowers, they have to put some of their capital into that subordinate reserve, the credit reserve. And they do that so that if there are defaults, they are among the first to take a hit. And that helps ensure that they are incentivized to maintain pretty good credit standards.Joe (18:57):It's really cool, because there's so many ways that you can participate in Maple. But also, the notion that folks have shared incentives and are aligned is I think one of the most powerful aspects of the protocol, but that raises the question of, "Well, man, it seems like a lot of scope for some engineering talent." Let's dive into a little bit of the tech, not get too deep, but certainly enough to give people an understanding of what it is that you've built, and ultimately why and when you added salon integration? What does that look like for your team? And, what has been the lessons learned from starting on Ethereum, and then adding Solana support.Sid (19:36):Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, looking back at our tech stack that we have on Ethereum. So, we launched the Ethereum version of the protocol in May of 2021. And then, we were steadily growing. So, Ethereum, or the protocol as a whole, has done about 1.5 billion worth of loans to date. It's pretty good for 12 months. But what we looked at as we built out Ethereum... So there's certain things that you really keep in mind when you're developing. So, upgradability was something we debated for a long time, because if you have upgradability, it gives you flexibility. And it means you can move faster, ideally not break things, but it gives you the ability to iterate, but it's less secure, because upgrading a protocol or upgrading a component of the protocol, that's how hacks and exploits can happen. So, we initially traded more on the side of security there and inflexibility.Sid (20:26):Now, as we near launching pools V2, we are thinking about upgradability and how we can have something that evolves. But, it was around late last year, I was actually at Breakpoint Solana in Lisbon, and I was meeting a lot of founders who were coming from TradFi backgrounds and looking at building things on Solana. And, we had been receiving comments from people who were using the platform about the transaction costs on Eth. And so, that prompted us to start looking at, "Could we build on layer twos? Should we evaluate alternative layer ones?" And, being at the conference, yeah, I was very much struck by, one, the level of development in the ecosystem, particularly on the DeFi side. Two, the level of talent that was moving across there. And, a lot of our clients and borrowers, like Alameda, obviously have a lot to do with the Solana ecosystem.Sid (21:13):And so, we started researching who was doing Maple on Solana. We met a team that was called Avari, and then we ended up acquiring them. And that meant that we were able to get live on Solana probably six months ahead of where we would've been. And it gave us access to really good talent in terms of Rust engineering, which was super short on supply. So, for us, it meant, one, speed to market. Two, talent acquisition. And, Jeff and Quinn, the two guys who came on board the team, really aligned with us in terms of values.Sid (21:43):And, it's given us now I would say the advantage of being on two chains is that you can start to build out a differentiated product that ideally isn't cannibalizing what you've already done on Ethereum. It should be meaningfully differentiated. And that's why I've been pretty excited to see things like the launch of the Solana phone, because the more differentiation and uniqueness that we have on the ecosystem that product is built on, the more we can serve a differentiated market, whether if you have something like, SolPay, that starts to introduce tech or SaaS companies into using crypto and blockchain to support their financing, then that's a market we could go and lend to.Sid (22:24):So anyway, that's a long-winded answer. But, that was why we started looking at Solana. And as we're evolving that product, so there's now about 113 million in loans on Solana, Genesis and X-Margin are each running pools there. We're trying to see, how can we build that product to serve either a unique customer base, whether it's like SaaS companies or a unique and differentiated lender?Joe (22:46):Got it. Yeah. The Breakpoint conference last year, I think, was really eye-opening for a lot of folks that were just getting familiar with Solana. And, the response I've heard from most people is that, just the developer activity and the developer acumen, the technical acumen of the developers that were migrating towards Solana was a super strong signal to why they wanted to participate, or in your case support Solana. One of the key features of Solana is this concept of composability. So, the notion that protocols can almost operate as Legos and you can build various things, developers can build various things. Is there a notion of composability with what Maple's doing? Meaning, could developers actually try to build something with Maple powering it, or as a piece of some bigger product, or protocol idea that they may have? Or is Maple more meant to be, "We're a vertically integrated thing that supports Solana's chain"?Sid (23:46):Yeah, it's an interesting concept. It's, do you go the Apple route and you be vertically integrated and control your destiny? Initially, the concept from Maple was for tranche fixed income, but then it evolved to be full stack lending. And that was because DeFi was so early that we didn't really want to be dependent on other protocols to get to market and to grow. And so, we took more of the Apple approach early on. Now as I look at DeFi, one, I think there's actually going to be a contraction in the scope of different products on DeFi for a while. And so, being vertically integrated is strategically pretty good for us, but the counter to the apple approach would be where Microsoft has found itself now, where I think, arguably before they might not have had a stronger set of products outside of Windows and Office.Sid (24:30):But, now when you look at what they've got, they've got GitHub, Teams, Xbox, gaming, Activision. They're actually adding this full suite of things, where when you go into their ecosystem, you have access to all of this. And it's a very interesting product to serve to institutions or enterprises from Microsoft's side. And so, I'm looking at what is within the lending product suite, whether it's yield. So this could include swaps, could include things like credit scores, could include flavor of insurance or credit default swaps, or it could include different types of credit indices. What are the adjacent or complimentary products that would, one, make our product offering stronger, and two, enhance the strength of a product that's trying to partner with us.Sid (25:16):So, credit scores are really a natural one. But, I'd say, at this stage, it is very early on in that space just because people aren't conducting most of their economic activity on chain. But other things like fix for floating swaps, or hedges, I think, are a pretty good complimentary one. It's still very early, but those are the natural ones that I speculate about, because that was what I used to do when I was in banking. We'd also have to go on frequently talk to a swaps desk, or a ratings agency. So I think those would be naturally the first ones.Joe (25:44):Got it. Yeah. There's a conversation that I have with a number of the founders that I advise on their companies about staying very tightly scoped to what you're building, versus opening up almost an API, or a set of SDKs, or a platform if you will. And there's just trade offs to both of those, right?Sid (26:01):Yeah.Joe (26:02):One is that if you are vertically integrated, well, you really control not only your destiny, but you also control the end-user experience, and what that end-user... How they're going to interact with your product/protocol. And that's super important, but it could potentially restrict the potential speed of the growth of what you could be doing in these adjacent areas like you're describing. Whereas, if you, say, theoretically, open up a platform with APIs and SDKs for developers to build on, you're not necessarily controlling that end-user experience, and that could be potentially detrimental to the brand of Maple, assuming someone has a poor experience. But, it's a great trade off to make, right?Joe (26:40):And I think, staying the course of what you guys have done thus far, the fact that you're even thinking about CDSs or credit scores. I mean, one of the questions that came to mind earlier was, if you're bridging a lot of what happened in TradFi, are we going to start to see a ratings agency? Are we going to start to see the CDOs and CDO squares, and for the listeners that may not know what that is, it's a collateralized debt obligation that could then also have various tranches associated with it, which unfortunately led to a big portion of the global financial crisis. And we don't necessarily want to recreate that. But I guess, from my perspective, how do you think about that roadmap that you're doing. And, where are you going to be doubling down, or are there other areas where you want to partner with folks? And, how do you think about that going forward?Sid (27:24):Yeah, I actually think about a lot. I mean, we get a lot of inbound interest in partnerships, because I feel like we've been around a little while and we've demonstrated a certain amount of traction. So that's good. But then, a big question becomes how do you decide and prioritize amongst those opportunities? And what I try and think about now is... I think, a big focus for us is which opportunities get us fastest out the gate in terms of serving non-crypto native customers right now. So there's a certain question of, how much do you want to be doubling down serving crypto native borrowers, versus say, leaping out and serving SaaS companies? And to serve SaaS companies, the types of product integrations that you might need, or just any customer outside of crypto, would be things like on and off-ramps.Sid (28:07):Now, that's a really intensive product development on the legal and compliance side. It's actually pretty simple build, but it starts to become a strategic question of, "How much effort do we want to devote to something like that, versus say, evaluating an alternative L1 or going to an L2?" I think, the scale's probably tipped in favor of looking at how quickly you can get out and serve just a wider set of customers. And I would say, part of our role at this stage is trying to educate people who are not actually in crypto already, and try and bring them into crypto and into DeFi, rather than bringing DeFi to them. Instead of evangelizing about it to the people who are already in crypto. I think what we're trying to do is just demonstrate a very workable product to people who are not already in there and wow them with what we think the huge benefits over doing this through the traditional financial system.Joe (28:57):I mean, look, I love the notion and the approach of trying to get a lot more non-crypto people into DeFi. I think, one of the things that I look for when I talk to founders or folks that are in the ecosystem... And I know that Anatoly and Raj did the same thing, and the Solana lab team more broadly is like, "How can we get more and more users that aren't already in the space?" And, there's a couple ways that you can do that. One is, you can build an amazing product that's very easy to use. Easier said than done.Sid (29:29):Yeah.Joe (29:29):But the second is some partnerships. And, what brought this to mind for me was I think when we met in-person, it was at a dinner that Jeremy Allaire, the CEO of Circle put on. Could you maybe talk a little bit about how maybe the Circle is an example of how you're thinking about levering someone in this space that is absolutely doing God's work out there, working with institutions and folks trying to get them into crypto and DeFi? Jeremy's done an amazing job of doing this with USDC and what he's been doing at Circle. So I'd love to get your take on if Circle is an example of how... Or someone that you would partner with to help accelerate some of those non-crypto native people into DeFi.Sid (30:08):Definitely. So, Circle, as you said, is a great partner. So, the pools lend on Maple in USDC, which is the vast majority of the lending that's happening on the platform, and also wrapped Eth. But if we look at USDC, this is absolutely essential infrastructure, I think, for DeFi, because having this secure stable currency in a digital form, which we can then distribute loans to corporate borrowers, as well as companies who are coming into DeFi and looking to earn a yield, are wanting that yield in stable coins. But, where Circle has been tremendous, and I think where there is a huge opportunity to grow is, one, there is the Circle yield product, which could potentially be integrated with Maple and a partnership there would offer people access to yields coming through the platform. What they've actually done really well, which is underrated is, the front-end of the Circle treasury and USDC product has, I think, the best off-ramp in the market.Sid (31:05):So, we use it for our own corporate treasury management and when we have to pay things in fiat. And, having that product, that's a really good Trojan horse, that if a regular non-crypto company starts using that, they have a seamless on and off-ramp through which they could access a product like Maple. So, I could lend to a company and let's say that company is doing SaaS, or it's a FinTech business, or even a business in real estate or construction. So, if we could lend USDC to that company, then they could take that through the Circle front-end, convert it into fiat, and then use it to pay vendors, suppliers, salaries. And so, I think, the growth and proliferation of stable coin usage is super essential and it's going to precede wider adoption of DeFi, because it's a necessary part, it's key, picks, and shovels for the space. But I'd say that's how the Circle partnership is super important for us.Joe (32:03):Yeah. The folks at Circle are great. I have nothing but positive things to say about them as well. And, there are other partners in this space that I think have been super helpful as well to DeFi adoption. As you think about these partnerships... What struck me earlier about when you said you think there's going to be a contraction in DeFi, how does evaluating how Maple is going to play in this space relative to the potential contraction that you're seeing? So, maybe to unpack this a little bit, can you talk about maybe your view on the contraction and how that may or may not influence how you want to go out and partner with folks to bring on those call it a 100 million new users into DeFi.Sid (32:46):The contraction is happening broadly across all risk on assets. So, people are going risk off for crypto for equities. And, what's happening is that because crypto is a much smaller market, the outflow is felt more acutely. But we've seen out general outflows from crypto and DeFi lending as a whole. And, what it's forced us to do is probably consolidate around a core working product. So, in this case, it's probably caused us to, say, push out potential partnerships that are maybe less clear in their scalability, because it's a bird in the hand, two in the bush. So, if you have a customer set that is working and partnerships that are working, you have to be more circumspect and conservative in the new ones, because you probably have less bullets. And so, what the pullback is forcing us to think about is, if we wanted to go and target a new set of borrowers, who is a new set of borrowers that we could potentially sell to lenders who would need to deposit into the pools that are lending to those borrowers?Sid (33:46):So, it forces us to think about matching and extending the markets that are offered on the platform, i.e., the pools that are offered on Maple. And, in terms of integrations, it forces us to concentrate more acutely on what partnerships, for example, Circle as well as off-ramps will help us extend our reach to serve customers who are outside of crypto. So things like credit scores, you have to be a little bit more conservative about, because probably the next six months, there's not going to be as much on chain activity. And so, the amount of value you could get out of, say, an on chain credit score is probably diminished for the next six months. It's not that it wouldn't work eventually. It's just that, probably that goes down your priority list in the near term.Joe (34:33):Got you. Yeah, that makes total sense. Can we talk maybe a bit about your company? We've been talking so much about DeFi, and of the product, and this and that. I probably should have asked this at the beginning of the podcast, but can you maybe just talk a little bit about the company? How old the company is? And, where you're located? Potentially remote, like most modern companies. And, what does the the roadmap look like for folks you want to bring on or folks that you're looking to add to the team? The reason I bring this up is that a lot of folks that tend to listen to the podcast are very passionate about participating in the Solana ecosystem and are interested to hear about how companies started and where they're going.Sid (35:13):We have an interesting structure. So, two segments, we've got the DAO, which raised capital. And the DAO is effectively governing the protocol and it has a multisignature that will implement any major changes, deploy new contracts. And then, we've got the operating company, which is employing developers, conducting business development and marketing. And so, that's domiciled out of Australia. And that company receives grants from the DOW, which cover operating costs and cash burn on a quarterly basis. And I suppose with those two segments, it's worth noting, so most of the team is remote. They tend to be based out of the US, Canada, UK, and Western Europe. We try to aggregate everyone around not too many time zones, so that it was easy to coordinate calls when I was living in Australia. I used to have to do 4:00 AM calls most days.Joe (36:02):Brutal.Sid (36:02):Yeah. But, we've got about 36 people at the moment. And so, we were hiring more aggressively. I think in current market conditions, we paired that back a little bit, but we are still hiring. So, if there are good people out there who want to join a team, we are looking for a couple of engineering roles at the moment. We're looking for a capital markets associate for anyone who is in TradFi or investment banking, and looking for a change into crypto. Never a better time to do it. And so, I actually want us to run a pretty lean model. So I think, me and my co-founder have always been of the opinion that you add people on the basis of jobs that need to be done, rather than just headcount for headcounts sake.Sid (36:42):And so, I've definitely been inspired by the FTX model there in terms of how much they've been able to ship for how lean they are. I would say, we've actually developed a sales team, operations marketing, as well as product engineering and design. So, we are a fairly complete core. And so I think, there are potential roles on the team for someone in sales, design, or engineering, if there are good people out there. Yeah, that's where we got to at the moment.Sid (37:13):But in terms of roadmap, the roadmap for us is we're launching pools V2. So there's a really complex engineering ask there. And, the team is doing a lot of research. And particularly with the market events of recent market volatility and some of the points and implosions we noted in the CeFi side, we're trying to take learnings and incorporate them into pools V2.Sid (37:37):So this would include things like, how to have a better withdrawal mechanism? How to have better cover support, i.e., credit protection, because people are really more acutely concerned about that. And that's something that probably wasn't a big market focus six months ago. And then, better asset liability matching, which is that point I made about sustainability of a lending business. You can't fund term loans without call deposits. And so, we just want to get better about matching those up.Sid (38:05):But then, on Solana, what we're focused on at the moment is things like open term loans, active collateral management. These are the types of things that we think is going to be super interesting tooling to bring more CeFi businesses onto DeFi rails. So I think, we recognize that is a core customer set of ours. And it's like, "How do we build the tooling that means that you would want to run a multi-billion dollar lending business on top of DeFi rails?"Joe (38:30):Wow, fascinating. And man, could we use that? If there's anything that we learned, I think, this year thus far is, self custody is definitely going to be a key thing going forward.Sid (38:40):Self custody is king.Joe (38:41):Yeah. Well, look, this has been an absolutely fascinating conversation. I have one last question for you. And, we will absolutely hold you to it long-term. You've been talking a lot about lending and there's an interest rate associated with those loans in the United States. And, I think some of the other central banks are following suit. We've been raising interest rates. So, how do you think a little bit about competing with some of the broader interest rate markets and something that Maple can actually provide? Does that actually factor in? How do you think about, I guess, monetary policy from central banks relative to the business that Maple's building?Sid (39:20):For a really long time rates on crypto were outside rates in, let's call it, the real or traditional economy. And that was because there was a lack of liquidity there. Then, what we saw, rates and traditional economies started to go up, but because there was actually more supply coming through, particularly earlier this year, we actually saw rates drop. And so, the delta between TradFi and DeFi/CeFi rates really compressed. Now, we've seen with the implosion of liquidity... Liquidity has totally dried up. We've seen rates go way wider again.Sid (39:54):So rates now blowing out to mid-teen levels, you can probably clear in crypto and DeFi. I'm a big student of financial history. And I look back at the last time that inflation was this bad, which was probably the Volcker era. And, cash rates got up to double digits to break the back of inflation. And I'm interested, because I still think that lending rates in the traditional economy are sub-inflation. And therefore, everybody who's lending in the real economy is still earning a negative real rate of return. Whereas, in crypto, at least you're earning a rate that clears inflation. But I'm interested to see, and I wouldn't be surprised if rates continue to go up in the cash rates and the TradFi economy up to high single digits. And then, in DeFi and crypto that probably pushes them close to high teens. And yeah, I wouldn't consider that out of the ordinary. I think, people assume that because we haven't seen that in 20 years that that's not possible, but I would say, in the 60s, rates were pretty normal low single digits. And in the 80s, inflation was double digits, so.Joe (41:00):So basically, to wrap it all up, you're saying, crypto rates will be clearing inflation, whereas the real economy, likely not so.Sid (41:10):Crypto you can't have that distortive effect of the central bank, where you have people who are lending out at negative real rates, because they're below inflation. I think, in crypto, there is a demanded risk premium. And, it's a more pure form of capitalism, I would say, where people are going to price rates so that they can clear a real positive rate. So I'd say, with supply inflows being limited, I'd say that effect is more exacerbated. So I probably expect to see the spread between crypto and TradFi actually widen over the next 12 months.Joe (41:44):Very cool. Well, we will absolutely hold you to that. And in 12 months, we will verify that you were correct. Sid, this was a great conversation. Thanks so much for sharing your story with Maple. And, if folks want to find you and Maple online, where should they look?Sid (42:01):So you can go to our website, maple.finance. That's where you can find the web app, any news and updates. If you're active on crypto Twitter, you can find Mapl @maplefinance. And you can find me @syrupsid, both one word. If anyone wants to reach out, happy to make contact with them.Joe (42:17):Great stuff. Thanks, Sid. Well, it was an awesome conversation. It was such a great time hosting The Solana Podcast again. My name's Joe McCann. I'll see you guys next time.Sid (42:26):Thanks, Joe.
See the From the Mic website for transcripts and more. Or click here to download it directly.And the Country Dance and Song Society for information about Contra and English country dance across the continent.Soundbites featured in this episode (in order of appearance):All tracks of Tony's calling were recorded at the 2011 Dare to Be Square Weekend in Brasstown, NC and distributed by CDSS as the DTBS SyllabusTony calling Dosido & Face the Sides, track 033Tony calling the singing square The Auctioneer, track 133Tony calling The Kitchen Lancers, track 064Tony calling The Merry-Go-Round, track 157Other LinksTony and Beth Parke's website has all manner of good things including access to their catalogue where you can order Tony's books:Square Dance Calling: An Old Art for a New CenturyContra Dance Calling: A Basic TextShadrack's Delight – 43 original dances by Tony! (The title dance, “Shadrack's Delight,” celebrates its 50th anniversary this year!)And more!Tony Parkes interviewed by Julie Vallimont on our sister podcast, Contra Pulse!Contra Pulse Episode 23Check out this lovely video of Tony calling the classic square dance mixer “The Merry Go Round” at the 2020 Ralph Page Dance Legacy Weekend, including an introduction by David Millstone. The dance originated with Ralph Page, was adapted by Tony's mentor Ted Sannella, and then adapted by Tony himself. Tony traditionally calls The Merry Go Round” as the last dance at the New England Folk Festival (NEFFA).
This week...NASA goes woke, people get cancelled, Ohioans won't have to learn how to use guns to carry them and we finally get a Juicy verdict!!! All this, and so much more!!
With multiple countries now imposing sanctions, investors in Russian government bonds and currencies will need to consider their options as the risk of default rises.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This research references country/ies which are generally the subject of comprehensive or selective sanctions programs administered or enforced by the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (“OFAC”), the European Union and/or by other countries and multi-national bodies. Any references in this report to entities, debt or equity instruments, projects or persons that may be covered by such sanctions are strictly informational, and should not be read as recommending or advising as to any investment activities in relation to such entities, instruments or projects. Users of this report are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities in relation to any sanctioned country/ies are carried out in compliance with applicable sanctions.-----Transcript-----James Lord: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm James Lord, Head of FX and EM strategy. Simon Waever: And I'm Simon Waever, Global Head of Sovereign Credit Strategy. James Lord: And on this special episode of Thoughts on the Market, we'll be discussing the impact of recent sanctions on Russia for bonds and currency markets. It's Friday, March 11th at 1:00 p.m. in London. Simon Waever: and 8:00 a.m. in New York. James Lord: So, Simon, we've all been watching the recent events in Ukraine, which are truly tragic, and I think we've all been very saddened by everything that's happened. And it certainly feels a bit trite to be talking about the market implications of everything. But at the same time, there are huge economic and financial consequences from this invasion, and it has big implications for the whole world. So today, I think it would be great if we can provide a little bit of clarity on the impact for emerging markets. Simon, I want to start with Russia itself. The strong sanctions put in place have really had a big impact and increasing the likelihood that Russia could default on its debt. Can you walk us through where we stand on that debate and what the implications are? Simon Waever: That's right, it's had a huge impact already. So Russia's sovereign ratings have been downgraded all the way to Triple C and below, which is only just above default, and that's them having been investment grade just two weeks ago. If you look at the dollar denominated sovereign bonds, they're trading at around 20 cents on the dollar or below. But I think it all makes sense. The economic resilience needed to support an investment grade rating goes away when you remove a large part of the effect reserves, have sanctions on 80% of the banking sector, and with the economy likely to enter into a bigger recession, higher oil prices help, but just not enough. For now, the question is whether upcoming payments on the sovereign dollar bonds will be made. And I think it really comes down to two things. One, whether Russia wants to make the payments, so what we tend to call the willingness. And two whether US sanctions allow it, so the ability. Clarifications from the US Treasury suggests that beyond May 25th, payments cannot be made. So, either a missed payment happens on the first bond repayment after this, which is May 27th or Russia may also decide not to pay as soon as the next payment, which is on March 16th. And of course, the reason for Russia potentially not paying would be that they would want to conserve their foreign exchange. And actually, we've already had some issues on the local currency government bonds, so the ones denominated in Russian ruble. James, do you want to go over what those issues have been? James Lord: That's absolutely right. Already, foreigners do not appear to have received interest payments on their holdings of local currency government bonds. There was one due at the beginning of March, and it looks as though, although the Russian government has paid the interest on that bond, the institutions that are then supposed to transfer the interest payments onto the funds of the various bondholders haven't done so for at least the foreign holders of that bond. Does that count as default? Well, I mean, on the one hand, the government can claim to have paid, but at the same time, some bondholders clearly haven't received any money. There's also another interest payment due in the last week of March, so we'll see if anything changes with that payment. But in the end, there isn't a huge amount that bondholders can really do about it, since these are local currency bonds and they're governed under local law. There isn't really much in the way of legal recourse, and there isn't really much insurance that investors can take out to protect themselves. The situation is a bit different for Russian government bonds that are denominated in US dollars, though. So I'd like to dig a little bit more into what happens if Russia defaults on those bonds. For listeners that are unfamiliar, investors will sometimes take out insurance policies called CDSs or credit default swaps just for this type of situation, and they've been quite a lot of headlines around this. So, Simon, I'd be curious if you could walk us through the implications of default there. Simon Waever: So it's like two different products, right? So you have the bonds there, it can take a long time to recover some of the lost value. I mean, either you actually get the economic recovery and there's no default or you then go to a debt restructuring or litigation. But then on the other hand, you have the CDS contracts, they're going to pay out within a few weeks of the missed bond payment. But it's not unusual to find disagreement on exactly what that payment will look like. And that payment is, we call it, the recovery value perhaps is a bit like the uncertainty that sometimes happens when standard insurance needs to pay out. But if we start with the facts, if there is a missed payment on any of the upcoming dollar or euro denominated bonds, then CDS will trigger. Local currency bonds do not count and the sovereign rating does not matter either. So far I think it's clear, the uncertainty has been around what bonds can actually be delivered into the contract, as that's what determines the recovery value. As it stands, sanctions do allow secondary trading of the bonds. There have been some issues around settlement, but hopefully that can be resolved by the time an auction comes around. The main question is then where that recovery rate will end up, and I would say that given the amount of selling I think is yet to come I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being among the lower recovery rates we've seen in E.M sovereign CDS. James Lord: Yeah, that makes sense on the recovery rates and the CDs. But I mean, clearly, if Russia defaults, there could be some big implications for the rest of emerging markets as well. And even if they don't default, I mean, there's been a lot of spill over into other asset classes and other emerging markets. How do you think about that? Simon Waever: So I try to think of it in two ways, and I would expect both to continue if we do not see a de-escalation in Ukraine. So first, it really impacts those countries physically close to Russia and Ukraine and those then with trade linkages, which mainly comes with agriculture, energy, tourism and remittances. And that points you towards Eastern Europe, Turkey and Egypt, for instance. Secondly, if we also then see this continued weaker risk backdrop, it would then impact those countries where investor positioning is heavier. But enough on sovereign credit, I wanted to cover currencies, too. The Russian central bank was sanctioned. What do you think that means for EM currencies? James Lord: Absolutely. The sanctions against the central Bank of Russia were really quite dramatic and have understandably had a very big impact on the Russian exchange rate. The ruble's really depreciated in value quite significantly in the last couple of weeks. I mean, during periods of market uncertainty, the central Bank of Russia would ordinarily sell its foreign exchange assets to buy Ruble to keep the currency under control. But now that's not really possible. It's led to a whole range of countermeasures from Russia to try and protect the currency, such as lifting interest rates from just under 10% to 20%. There have also been significant restrictions on the ability of local residents to move capital abroad or buy dollars, and on the ability of foreigners that hold assets in Russia to actually sell and take their money home. All of that's designed to protect the exchange rate and keep foreign exchange reserves on home soil. I think the willingness of the US to go down that road, as well as the authorities in Europe and Canada and other jurisdictions, it does raise some important questions about whether or not investors will continue to want to hold dollars and US government bonds as part of their FX reserves. Many reserve asset holders may wonder whether or not similar action could be taken against them. This has become a big debate in the market. Some investors believe that this turn of events could ultimately lead to some long-term weakness in the dollar. But I think it's also important to remember that yes the U.S. is not the only country that has done this, and it's probably the case that actually any country could potentially freeze the foreign assets of another central bank. And if that's the case, then I don't see having a materially negative impact on the dollar over the long term, as many now seem to be suggesting. But I think that's all we have time for today. So let's leave it there. Simon, thanks very much for taking the time to talk. Simon Waever: Great speaking with you, James. James Lord: As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people to find the show.
Clinical documentation improvement (CDI) is crucial for full and accurate reimbursement and reduced compliance risks. Many software programs provide automation to assist coding and prioritization. However, clinical documentation specialists (CDSs) and coding professionals need to use these enhanced software tools along with critical thinking skills to take advantage of query opportunities. On this episode, we'll discuss how to effectively use CDI technology. Guest speaker: Rachel Mack, MSN, CCDS, CDIP, CCS, CRC Consulting Director, Clinical Documentation Vizient Moderator: Tomas Villanueva, DO, MBA, FACPE, SFHM Principal, Clinical Operations and Quality Vizient Show Notes: [01:40] Each physician document holds importance for the patient [02:10] Origins of CDI technology [03:21] CDI technology today: advantages and drawbacks [06:28] Example: when there's a need to avoid technology dependence [07:43] Need for critical thinking apart from the technology [09:48] Choose the software well Links | Resources: To contact Modern Practice: modernpracticepodcast@vizientinc.com Rachel Mack's contact email: rachel.mack@vizientinc.com What is CDI and how does it impact you? (AAPM) Click here Addressing Provider Clinical Documentation Challenges: New Technology Solutions Improve Accuracy (Vizient) Click here Vizient's CDI App Click here What Does a Clinical Documentation Specialist Do Day-to-Day? Click here Subscribe Today! Apple Podcasts Amazon Podcasts Android Google Podcasts Spotify Stitcher RSS Feed
Jim Baxter MS, OTR/L is joined by Kelly Machowicz CTRS, CBIS, CDSS in today's podcast. Kelly has experience working with a variety of populations including: traumatic brain injuries, spinal cord injuries, developmental disabilities, substance abuse, geriatrics, pediatrics, and mental health. She serves on the summer board for the Michigan Adaptive sports organization and coordinates events such as adaptive kayaking and water skiing. Kelly assists clients in reaching their goals and living their lives to the fullest. Home & Community Recreation Therapy: https://www.hcrt.net
The intro and interstitial tracks from today's episode are The Black Cat Jig/Asher (George Penk, fiddle; Clyde Curley, mandolin; Sue Songer, piano) from A Portland Selection 1, Riding on a Load of Hay/The Golden Stud © Paul Roche and recorded virtually by The Portland Megaband, Pretty Peggy (George Penk, fiddle; Clyde Curley, octave mandolin; Sue Songer, piano) from A Portland Selection 1, and Du Petit Sarny (Betsy Branch, fiddle; Clyde Curley, mandolin; Sue Songer, piano) from A Portland Play Along Selection.See the Contra Pulse website for transcripts and more. Or download the transcript directly.And the Country Dance and Song Society for information about Contra and English country dance across the continent.See and hear Sue Songer in action:Playing piano with her longtime band Joyride (Sue Songer, Erik Weberg, George Penk, and Jeff Kerssen-Griepat) the Portland Roadhouse during the Cascade Promenade in March, 2018.Another Joyride video with Sue playing fiddle during the Northwest Folklife Festival in 2017Here is the Joyride websiteYou can't say Sue Songer without immediately thinking of The Portland Megaband.Watch her conduct the band at a Portland dance in 2013, filmed by Doug PlummerYou don't want to miss the epic pandemic era Megaband video that Sue helped organize in March, 2021 (Sue is of course in her signature tux ;)Sometimes she also helps organize and conduct other community bands!The Pittsfield Open Band in Ann Arbor, MI in 2018Here's the South Coast Dance Orchestra (OR) in 2017, a project of the South Coast Folk Society A Lifetime of Achievements! In 2019 CDSS awarded Sue the Lifetime Contribution Award for her contributions to the world of contra dance music!Doug Plummer captured some highlights from the celebratory gathering in Portland, OR on 3/30/19 during which Sue's award was presented.Rob Hoffman also created a longer video of the full ceremony, which you can view here.PublicationsAlong with her co-editor, Clyde Curley, Sue helped to compile the three volumes of The Portland Collection: Contra Dance Music in the Pacific Northwest. In the podcast you heard selections from some of the accompanying CDs.Sue's most recent publication, David A. Kaynor: Living Music and Dance encompasses and celebrates the many contributions David has made to the world of contra dance. Order your copy here!Here's the screen shot showing Kaynor's calligraphy mentioned in the interview
The intro and interstitial tracks from today's episode are New Brunswick Hornpipe/Rainy Reel and Debbie's Jig/Cadeau's Jig from the Gerry Robichaud album Maritime Dance Party, Angus Campbell/Top o’ the Hill and Colored Aristocracy/Ragtime from Kitchen Junket and La Bastringue-Saut de Lapin-Beaulieu-Pointe au Pic from Heatin’ Up the Hall , both by Yankee Ingenuity.See the Contra Pulse website for transcripts and more.And the Country Dance and Song Society for information about Contra and English country dance across the continent.See and hear Tony Parkes in action:Calling Lazy H, a square, at the Scout House in 1992Calling his favorite square (Do-si-do and Face the Sides) to his favorite tune (Ragtime Annie) in Brasstown, NCTony sent two resources for us to include in these notes:A partial list of Yankee Ingenuity sit-in musiciansA list of tunes Tony describes as follows: “I just sent an eclectic list of tunes I recall from my early days playing and calling. Many of them go back to my summers at Farm & Wilderness; others date from my first couple of years playing in the NEFFA Festival Orchestra. (That reminds me of something I didn’t get around to mentioning in the interview: I called a dance at my first festival in 1969 because one of the programmed callers didn’t show up. The callers submitted their dance titles in advance; somewhere I have the program sheets from 1969. There would be a set of three squares, with different callers, danced with the same partner and set, followed by a contra.) Note that not all of these tunes are of the kind I talked about: easy to play on any melody instrument. That list will take a bit more work to compile.”Some people mentioned in this interview:The Square Dance History Project has some footage of Ed Durlacher calling in Central Park in the 1940s. His albums are still available!Benjamin Foss, the advocate of old Maine tunes Tony mentioned, has an album of his favorite New England contra tunesHere’s the text of a square dance calling course syllabus from Ed Gilmore, one of Tony’s calling influencesLearn more about Michael and Mary Ann Herman and their Folk Dance HouseThere’s more to say about Ted Sannella than fits in these notes! The Square Dance History Project has many resources, including dances he has written and clips of him callingGeorge Marshall mentions Jack Sloanaker at Farm and Wilderness in his conversation with Julie (episode 13 of this podcast). Pete Sutherland talks about his experiences at Farm and Wilderness in Episodes 19 and 20.Some odds and ends mentioned in this interview:Curious about contra dance chestnuts? David Smukler and David Millstone wrote a book about them! CDSS has made the companion video collection available online — check it out!Here’s a video of The Dead Sea Squirrels playing a contra dance in Glen Echo, MD in 2013
The intro and interstitial tracks from today's episode are all by Elixir - Divine Reel/Langstaff Library, Lulu's Back in Town, and Ringstead from the album Anybody's Guess, and I'm Gonna Sit Right Down and Write Myself a Letter and Bransle/Tom Kruskal's from the album Rampant.See the Contra Pulse website for transcripts and more.And the Country Dance and Song Society for information about Contra and English country dance across the continent.See and hear Nils Fredland in action:Calling “The Auctioneer” singing square with Nor’easter at Ashokan Northern Week in 2014Crowd surfing at Contrastock 2011 at the Spanish Ballroom in Glen Echo, MDHere’s Nils calling for the DC Square Dance Collective, with the Horseflies playingHere’s a video that shows the huge number of dancersThis video shows what Nils described about having no stage.Here’s Nils calling with DJ Improper at the Wednesday night Amherst, MA dance in 2012Elixir‘s websiteNils and Elixir at ContraShock 2018Nils and Elixir at Glen Echo, MD in 2012Playing with Johnny Socko, the ska bandListen to Monkey Puzzle, Nils’s a capella group from Bloomington, on SpotifyOn the Beat with Ralph Sweetis available for purchase in the CDSS web storeHere’s Ralph calling “The Auctioneer” with Elixir and other musicians playing at the book launch dance in 2010Nils is currently the Artistic Director for Revels NorthSome dances and events mentioned in this interview:DC’s 10-hour event called Contrastock is still happening during non-COVID timesTheDC Square Dance Collective is alive and well during non-COVID times, tooSpark in the Dark is a series of techno contra events that BIDA has hostedMore techno contra videos:Buddy System at LEAF in 2015Buddy System at LEAF in 2016We’re still looking for a video of the PJ song and of a techno square. Let us know if you have these!Some musical groups mentioned in this interview:Here’s a video of Mock Turtle Soup from 2011Here’s a video of Popcorn Behavior from 1996, around the time Nils first contra danced to themSome odds and ends mentioned in this interview:As Nils mentioned, Ralph’s family’s barn, the Powder Mill Barn in Enfield, CT, is still around and available for a wide variety of eventsThe Ralph Sweet’s All-Stars recording Nils mentioned is called Shindig in the BarnHere’s a video of Lisa Greenleaf calling the 16-person dance Nils mentioned—Rod’s Quad #2
Emily O'Brien is a native of Washington, DC where she played recorder from a young age. She studied recorder and french horn at Boston University, and recorder and Baroque flute at the Hochschule für Musik in Karlsruhe, Germany. She performs in recorder ensembles and historical chamber music, as well as English Country Dance bands. As a teacher, she works with private students and ensembles in the Boston area as well as teaching at various summer workshop such as CDSS's Early Music Week at Pinewoods and Amherst Early Music Festival. Emily's solo album, “Fantasies for a Modern Recorder” explores the variety and possibilities over four centuries of repertoire offered by the Helder Harmonic Tenor recorder. In her spare time, she enjoys long distance cycling. https://www.emilysdomain.org/Recorderland/ @IvoryBoilerRoom --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/ivorytowerboilerroom/support
See and hear Peter Siegel in action:His websiteHis show Live from Brattleboro is every Sunday evening at 6 p.m. Eastern. is available for watching on Facebook and YouTube. (Older episodes on YouTube are here)The Gaslight Tinkers live at the Iron Horse in 2013Playing and singing with Pete Seeger in 2012With Susan Conger, Susie Secco, and David Kaynor playing at the John C. Campbell Folk School Dance Musicians’ Week in 2009The Beverwyck String Band’s album is elusive right now — if you know of a way to purchase or listen to it, please let us know!Some people mentioned in this interview:Julie and Mary Cay Brass discuss other aspects of the Greenfield Dance Band in their conversation in Episode 14Jay Ungar and Molly Mason make the magic happen at AshokanLyn Hardyis still performing and is also a luthierSusan CongerHere’s an interview with Guy Bouchard. Thirty Below no longer exists, unfortunately…Sue Songer was awarded CDSS’s Lifetime Contribution Award in 2019Garrett Sawyer runs Northfire Studio in Amherst, MA.Some musical groups mentioned in this interview:Jim Kimball is still running the Geneseo String Band at SUNY GeneseoYou can learn more about Wild Asparagus from Julie’s conversations with David Cantieni (Episodes 7 and 8) and George Marshall (Episode 13)Here’s a video from Ashokan with members of Nightingale and Wild Asparagus jamming togetherThe MammalsPeter mentioned Garrett’s band The Alchemystics; here’s what they sound likeHere’s Ann Percival’s swing band, The O-Tones, performing “Let’s Get Away from it All”Some dances and events mentioned in this interview:Learn more about the Clearwater Festival on their websiteThe Old Fiddler’s Convention in Galax, VAAshokan Northern Week happened virtually this summerYou can read more about the environmental education programming at Ashokan hereJulie mentioned drawing on David Kaynor’s ideas when starting the BIDA dancein Cambridge, MADance Musicians’ Week at the John C. Campbell Folk School also happened virtually this summerSome odds and ends mentioned in this interview:At the beginning of the interview, Peter was riffing on “John Henry.” Here’s a recording of Pete Seeger singing it.Listen to Woodie Guthrie singing and playing “This Land Is Your Land”Here’s La Bottine Souriante playing both "Hommage à Edmond Parizeau" and "Dédicado à Jos"Here’s a YouTube video to give you an idea of what Soca Calypso sounds likePVPA is the Pioneer Valley Performing Arts charter school in South Hadley, MAPeter mentioned using the New England Dancing Masters material in his teaching. Mary Cay Brass talks about this in Episode 14
Qué es un sistema inteligente? Es algo así como un robot? Son tan inteligentes como nosotros? Tienen alguna relación con Skynet? Cómo hacen para ayudarnos a tomar decisiones? Por qué son la razón de ser de los sistemas de información del siglo XXI? Qué necesitan para funcionar? Todos sirven para lo mismo y hacen lo mismo? Qué relación tienen estos sistemas con el super-médico?Estos interrogantes y muchos más son respondidos en este episodio. Escuchanos!
Clinical decision support systems are IT-based tools that compile patient- and context-specific data, presenting this to providers at the point-of-care and clinical decision making. These systems are an excellent means for pathologists to influence laboratory test-ordering practices and to foster appropriate test use. However, the optimal methods to design, implement and maintain CDSS are not well-known, representing an important gap in knowledge, explains Dr. Amanda Blouin in this CAPcast interview. Dr. Blouin, a pathologist at Memorial Sloan Kettering in New York City, will be teaching a course on this topic with Dr. Ronald Jackups at CAP20, which will be held virtually this year from Oct. 10-14. For more information about CAP20, visit www.capannualmeeting.org and follow #cap20virtual on social media.
Episode NotesLearn more about Kate Barnes at CDSS: www.cdss.org/44-community/lifetime-contribution-awardsThe interstitial music for this week is Hell Broke Loose in Georgia from the Latter Day Lizards' album Sleeping on a Rock: www.latterdaylizards.comYou can find Kate's recordings and publications at the CDSS store and here: www.canispublishing.comSee the Contra Pulse website for transcripts and more: contrapulse.cdss.orgAnd the Country Dance and Song Society for more information about Contra and English country dance across the continent: www.cdss.org
Akin Alabi is the founder of Nairabet, an online sports betting platform. Akin grew up with the hopes of being rich. According to him, he wasn't too particular about his profession as long as it was legal and it made him rich. He started his career by selling ebooks, CDSs, audio tapes and manuals. In 2009, he launched Nairabet. Last year, he launched his book...Small Business, Big Money. A book that teaches how to start, grow and turn a small business into a “cash generating machine.” Akin is the founder of Youth Enterprise Conference, an annual conference held in March every year where successful young experts and business people share their success stories with Nigerian youths . In this episode you'll learn: How the business model of a sports betting company works How to understand and use to your advantage the effect and psychology of your customers buying power Why was Akin not interested in looking for a job after his HND? What is the most valuable pricing lesson Akin learnt has an entrepreneur? About the previous businesses he started before and failed at. And his determination to keep trying again What are the factors you need to consider if you are going into publishing? What are the lessons from Akin's story? What is the disadvantage of selling your products for cheap? How does it affect upselling? There are many ways of building a minimum viable product. One of them was mentioned in this chat. Find out what it is Who should be your biggest investors? And how can you appeal to them? Akin is a politician and intends to run for Federal House of Representatives. What is his motivation? How does he intend to innovate the process? And more Selected links from this episode Selected books from this episode
Geek:30 Happy Hour | Celebrating Geek Culture and Craft Beer
Alex and JoJo bring on guest, Sam AKA "samahndc" from the Twitchverse! Sam brings not one, but TWO beers in light of his heritage and his spouse's heritage: San Miguel Pale Pilsen Beer (Filipino): http://sanmiguelpalepilsen.com.ph/homepage/ Cass Fresh[edit] (Korean):A pale-golden pale lager with an 4.5% ABV. Originally brewed by the Cass Brewery, the brand had been taken over by Jinro-Coors, one of the country's leading brewers. After having around 70% of the Korean lager market in the 1980s, by 1994 Cass had fallen behind Hite as Korea's top selling lager. Oriental Brewery bought the Cass brand from Jinro-Coors in 1999 and built it up again, with OB declaring a 51% market share in 2000. In 2007, the higher alcohol Cass Red was introduced. In 2011 Cass Lager became South Korea's number one selling brand, overtaking Hite.[5] Non-alcoholic look-alikes of Cass can be found with brand names such as "Cars" and "Cdss". Some norae-bang (song bars) establishments have been known to try and pass off these imitations as the real thing, as Korean law prohibits noraebangs marked as such from selling alcoholic drinks within its premises (as opposed to noraejujeom establishments which are allowed to sell alcohol).(Source: Wikipedia)The trio then talk: Tom Hardy as Venomhttp://ew.com/movies/2017/05/19/tom-hardy-venom-spider-man-spinoff/ Little Mermaid TV Specialhttp://ew.com/tv/2017/05/16/little-mermaid-live-abc/ Star Trek Discoveryhttps://www.facebook.com/StarTrekCBS/videos/1478090278909456/ Finally, we pose AN ACTUAL QUESTION THIS WEEK, ALEX!!!: What country that you have not visited would you visit and why? -Cheers!
Jan. 30, 2016. Dance historian Graham Christian discussed his new book, "The Playford Assembly," a major new collection of historic English dances published by the Country Dance and Song Society in celebration of its centennial year. Christian's talk will be enhanced by demonstrations of the dances by CDSS dancers and musicians. For transcript, captions, and more information, visit http://www.loc.gov/today/cyberlc/feature_wdesc.php?rec=7280
Background: The aim of this study was to compare two measures of depression in patients with schizophrenia and schizophrenia spectrum disorder, including patients with delusional and schizoaffective disorder, to conclude implications for their application. Sampling and Methods: A total of 278 patients were assessed using the Calgary Depression Scale for Schizophrenia (CDSS) and the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAMD-17). The Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) was also applied. At admission and discharge, a principal component analysis was performed with each depression scale. The two depression rating scales were furthermore compared using correlation and regression analyses. Results: Three factors were revealed for the CDSS and HAMD-17 factor component analysis. A very similar item loading was found for the CDSS at admission and discharge, whereas results of the loadings of the HAMD-17 items were less stable. The first two factors of the CDSS revealed correlations with positive, negative and general psychopathology. In contrast, multiple significant correlations were found for the HAMD-17 factors and the PANSS sub-scores. Multiple regression analyses demonstrated that the HAMD-17 accounted more for the positive and negative symptom domains than the CDSS. Conclusions:The present results suggest that compared to the HAMD-17, the CDSS is a more specific instrument to measure depressive symptoms in schizophrenia and schizophrenia spectrum disorder, especially in acutely ill patients. Copyright (c) 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel