F-World: The Fragility Podcast

Dina Saleh is the Regional Director of the Near East, North Africa, and Europe Division at the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) – the only specialized global development institution exclusively focused on rural transformation. With more than 20 years of international experience, Dina has spearheaded agriculture and rural development initiatives across Eastern Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Asia. She has also worked with both the private sector and international organizations like the UN, gaining a unique perspective on development across fragile and conflict-affected regions. We begin our conversation by exploring Dina's journey, starting with her early life in Yemen and Kenya, where agriculture was intrinsic to her formative years through her family's business in agricultural trade and her schooling. This sparked her passion for rural development and gave her firsthand insights into how food systems work, ultimately leading to her current role at IFAD. We then move on to the multifaceted challenges of working in fragile states like Somalia & Sudan, where conflict, climate change, and the lack of infrastructure severely hinder agricultural productivity. Dina discusses the delicate balance of working with both pastoralists and settled farmers, addressing conflicts over land and resources through innovative infrastructure solutions, as well as community-driven governance. Our discussion also delves into gender dynamics in rural development. Dina shares a striking example from Sudan, where women were initially barred from engaging in agricultural development initiatives. Working with local leaders, IFAD was able to empower women to participate in economic activities like food processing and home-based production. These success stories underscore the importance of patience and sustained effort in achieving long-term development goals. Tune in to hear more about the role of agriculture in poverty reduction and how organizations like IFAD are adapting their strategies to meet the complex and dynamic needs of fragile states! ***** Dina Saleh IFAD: https://www.ifad.org/en/w/people/dina-saleh ***** Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.  X: https://x.com/fworldpodcast Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/ Website: https://f-world.org Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), X (x.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran) EPISODE RESOURCES: Updated approach to IFAD engagement in fragile situations https://www.ifad.org/en/w/publications/updated-approach-to-ifad-engagement-in-fragile-situations TIMESTAMPS: 00:00:00 Intro 00:01:08 Dina's story  00:03:19 Subsistence farming & the shift to commercialization  00:06:11 The roots of fragility in Yemen 00:08:35 Agriculture as a path to poverty reduction  00:12:19 Defining food systems  00:13:49 IFAD's approach to nutrition in rural communities 00:16:18 What makes food systems fragile or resilient 00:18:12 Key trends in agriculture 00:20:00 What is IFAD? 00:23:26 IFAD in Somalia 00:28:44 Investment tools 00:31:18 IFAD's financial instruments 00:33:15 How IFAD's financing helps vulnerable populations 00:35:30 Role of technology in helping farmers 00:39:20 IFAD's engagement in fragile contexts 00:45:20 Balancing crisis response & prevention 00:49:29 Measuring impact & results in fragile states 00:52:58 Working in conflict zones 00:56:15 Real-life challenges in fragile communities 00:59:45 Gender-specific challenges in rural development 01:03:30 Development misconceptions 01:08:19 Food self-sufficiency vs. trade 01:12:02 Fair trade & value for farmers 01:14:36 Water - food - energy nexus 01:18:05 Obstacles to coordination 01:20:15 Role of fertilizer  01:22:28 Hope for the future 01:25:27 Wrap-up

Philippe Vogeleer is a chartered director specialized in partnerships between companies, governments, and international organizations. Until March 2024 he was the Global Head of Corporate Business Development for Vodafone. Prior to joining Vodafone, Philippe held senior positions for Ooredoo, Orange, and Deloitte. He has lived in 10 countries and worked in more than 100. He holds a master's degree in law, a master's degree in media and communications, and an Executive MBA. Philippe now advises a small number of companies as Non-Executive Director and supports the work of international charities, including Global Citizen. He is also a Visiting Lecturer at INSEAD. We start our conversation by learning about Philippe's international background, his early interest in human development, and how he discovered the importance of mobile phones and satellite technology. We then take a stroll through the decades with Philippe highlighting the big business opportunities for the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector in each time period - from radio waves in the 1980s and 90s, to networks and services in the 2000s and 2010s. He also reminds us that most people don't have a laptop, accessing digital tools only on mobile phones, and that today's opportunity lies in bringing access to the devices.   We then shift to discussing how we can define the ICT sector and what we mean by digitalization. Also, we ask Philippe to help us understand what fragility looks like on the ground, from an ICT perspective, and how the ICT industry and digitalization can help counter fragility. This leads us to talk about what is needed to build a business case in fragile states or even in conflict areas, how you can engage external partners, and how to convince internal decision makers to take on the risk of investing under more difficult conditions. We also discuss the benefits of digitalization for governments, the main obstacles to closing the digital divide, and the role of AI in digitalization. We wrap up our conversation by considering the finite nature of money, how it can best catalyze digitalization, and the potential future for the ICT industry. Watch or listen to the episode for so many more insights from Philippe Vogeleer! ***** Philippe Vogeleer philippe.vogeleer@globalpartners4digitaldevelopment.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/global-partners-for-digital-development ***** Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.  X: https://x.com/fworldpodcast Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/ Website: https://f-world.org Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), X (x.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran) TIMESTAMPS: 00:00:00 Introduction 00:02:11 Philippe's background – people, places, ideas that charted his path 00:08:16 ICT's big business opportunities through the decades 00:14:02 What is digitalization? What is the ICT sector? 00:18:13 What is fragility? What does it look like from an ICT perspective? 00:26:15 How can ICT and digitalization help counter fragility? 00:34:30 The business case for digitalization in fragile states and low-income countries 00:45:31 Digitalization benefits for governments 00:54:30 Obstacles to closing the digital divide 01:00:28 The role of AI in digitalization: risks or benefits 01:08:56 The finite nature of money & how to best catalyze digitalization 01:14:01 Potential future for the ICT industry 01:21:03 Wrap-up

Stefan Dercon is Professor of Economic Policy at Oxford University, where he also directs the Center for the Study of African Economics. The author of 5 books and many studies, Stefan has had a distinguished career as an academic and policy advisor on economic development. His accomplishments are many. To name just a few:  between 2011 and 2017, he was Chief Economist of the Department of International Development (DFID), the government department in charge with the UK's aid policy and spending; between 2020-2022, he was the Development Policy Advisor to successive Foreign Secretaries at the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. Stefan is a virtuoso of development! His approach to our conversation was equal parts exciting and instructive, a style that also comes across in his writing, making his book very hard to put down. We start by learning about Stefan: his experience growing up in Belgium, being taught by Catholic priests about African socialism, Ujamaa and Julius Nyerere, and Marx and discovering his interest in economics as a means of pursuing development. His early career in Tanzania and Ethiopia highlighted the relationship between risk and poverty and the need to consider uncertainty when engaging in policy advice or research. We then shift to talking about the four propositions that compete as diagnoses of core problems of poverty and development that Stefan outlines in his book: poor initial endowments, market failures that trap the poor in poverty, market failures that are costly for poor countries, weak institutions. He gives us an overview and tells us why the propositions fall short on explaining the successes and failures of development. We also talk about the most important trends in development in recent decades: the dramatic decrease in poverty globally, the Africanization of poverty, and the increasing concentration of poverty in fragile states. The conversation then turns to the elites, what values drive them, and why would they gamble on a development bargain.  We talk about the role of natural resources, political systems, and how external actors can influence the emergence of development bargains. We also discuss the role of Western and Chinese elites in development bargains and what is good policy advice. ***** Stefan Dercon Website: https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/people/stefan-dercon X: https://twitter.com/gamblingondev LinkedIn: https://uk.linkedin.com/in/stefan-dercon-45927b104 ***** Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.  X: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/ Website: https://f-world.org Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Video editing by: Alex Mitran - x.com/alexmmitran, linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran EPISODE RESOURCES Stefan Dercon, “Gambling on Development: Why some Countries Win and Others Lose,” Hurst, London, 2022. https://www.gamblingondevelopment.com TIMESTAMPS: 00:00:00 Intro 00:01:24 Stefan's background 00:02:49 Economics of poverty 00:04:16 Connection between risk & poverty 00:08:16 Brief overview of development thinking 00:14:57 Recent trends in development 00:19:55 The Africanization of poverty & What is fragility 00:25:39 The problem of fixed mental models of fragility 00:28:47 Who are the elites 00:41:11 The gambling in development bargains 00:47:24 What values drive the elites 00:54:25 Natural resource & political systems in dev. bargains 00:58:51 The role of Western & Chinese elites in dev. bargains 01:09:14 Are the elite bargains in the West still dev. bargains 01:19:09 Citizens' role in dev. bargains 01:29:22 External actors & the emergence of dev. bargains 01:41:28 “Peace is ugly” – can international institutions accept it 01:51:20 Development is 50% history & 50% agency 02:00:40 Private sector role in the dev. bargain 02:09:48 What is good policy advice 02:19:56 Wrap-up

Hannes Mueller is a tenured researcher at the Institute for Economic Analysis, a researcher center of the Spanish National Research Council. He also directs the master's program in Data Science for Decision Making at the Barcelona Graduate School of Economics. Most recently, his research focus has been on how conflict can be predicted using millions of newspaper articles – a project which drives the conflictforecast.org website. This research project has become a key resource for global work on conflict prevention and has led to collaborations with the Spanish Central Bank, the German Federal Foreign Office, the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, the UN, World Bank, and many others. This conversation was a tour de force and covered a lot of topics: from taxes and trust, to fiscal capacity as a dimension of state capacity, to fragility and the macroeconomic implications of violent conflict, to forecasting conflict using machine learning and implications for policy makers. Hannes gives us a live demonstration of conflictforecast.org and if you're interested in how AI can help us forecast conflict then this is the conversation for you! ***** Hannes Mueller Website: https://www.hannesfelixmueller.com Conflict forecast: https://conflictforecast.org LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/hannes-mueller-research/ ***** Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.  X: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/ Website: https://f-world.org Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), X (x.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran) EPISODE RESOURCES Timothy Besley and Hannes Mueller. 2012. Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland. American Economic Review. Timothy Besley, Hannes Mueller, Fiscal Capacity and State Fragility In: Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States. Eds: Ralph Chami, Raphael Espinoza, and Peter Montiel, Oxford University Press (2021). International Monetary Fund. DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198853091.003.0009 Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention, Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 20, Issue 6, December 2022 Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, & Alessandro Ruggieri. 2022. Dynamic Early Warning and Action Model, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2236. TIMESTAMPS (00:00:00) Introduction (00:01:17) Hannes's background (00:03:26) Shock therapy in Poland vs. Russia (00:05:42) How Hannes's interest in politics shapes his research (00:09:09) Institution formation, fragility, & fiscal capacity (00:16:05) Trust, taxation, & public services (00:22:06) What is fragility (00:29:32) Relationship between fragility & violent conflict (00:33:11) Macroeconomic implications of conflict (00:37:21) Does conflict always lead to fragility (00:41:21) Forecasting fragility vs causal understanding (00:43:42) Human factors & forecasting fragility (00:50:42) Prevention & forecasting (00:55:09) Why is conflict prediction a hard problem (00:58:19) Machine learning for conflict prevention (01:03:21) What is a good model for conflict prevention? (01:11:05) Text availability by language for training the model (01:15:54) Conflictforecast.org demo (01:25:31) What can you ask the model & what you shouldn't ask (01:37:47) How can the model inform policy action & prevention (01:44:36) How can conflictforecast.org augment human decision making (01:49:51) The role of stabilizing factors in cross country comparisons (01:54:22) Hannes's data wish list (02:01:26) Do LLMs like ChatGPT impact the model's performance (02:04:37) Is there a role for sentiment analysis (02:08:45) Future research goals (02:13:08) Institutional myopia (02:15:27) Should we bring back salons (02:19:15) Wrap-up

Seth Kaplan is a Visiting Fellow with the Mercatus Center's Program on Pluralism and Civil Exchange. He is also a Professorial Lecturer at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University, Senior Adviser for the Institute for Integrated Transitions (IFIT), and consultant to the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), USAID, and the U.S. Department of State. Seth is the author of three books: “Fixing Fragile States: A New Paradigm for Development” (2008); “Betrayed: Promoting Inclusive Development in Fragile States (2013); and “Human Rights in Thick and Thin Societies: Universality Without Uniformity” (2018). His new book, “Fragile Neighborhoods: Repairing American Society, One Zip Code at a Time,” was published on October 17, 2023. This was an incredibly interesting conversation and full of insights about the fragility present right now in one of the most prosperous countries in the world! We start by talking about how Seth's experience with fragility around the world helped him spot the fragility present in America's own neighborhoods and what motivated him to write the book. We then discuss what fragile neighborhoods look like, what makes a neighborhood fragile, and the role of norms and close relationships in the fragility of our communities. Seth makes the point that fragility is about relationships, whether those are found at the local community level, between communities, or at level of national institutions – and the nature of those relationships or their absence is what makes fragility emerge. We also talk about why we have fragile neighborhoods and what policies and factors have contributed the most to this problem. Our conversation touches upon the role of public service and on the “poverty-industrial-complex” & institutional obstacles to addressing fragility in neighborhoods. Seth also makes the case for the value of prevention in terms of saving social, human, and economic capital and highlights marriage as one of the institutions that can help prevent social decay. We wrap up our conversation by discussing the need for reviving the American Dream and bringing back into our neighborhoods the robust institutions and instincts for civil society that Alexis de Tocqueville observed two centuries ago.   Listen to the episode and read Seth's book for so many more ideas on how we can help neighborhoods exit fragility! ***** Dr. Seth D. Kaplan Website: https://sethkaplan.org LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sethkaplan28 Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University: https://sais.jhu.edu/users/skapla13 Mercatus Center's Program on Pluralism and Civil Exchange: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/seth-d-kaplan Institute for Integrated Transitions: https://ifit-transitions.org/experts/seth-d-kaplan/ Seth D. Kaplan. 2023. Fragile Neighborhoods: Repairing American Society, One Zip Code at a Time. https://amzn.to/3la0FSG ***** Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Video editing by: Alex Mitran - Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), X (twitter.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran) TIMESTAMPS: 00:00:00 Intro 00:01:32 Seth's experience 00:04:00 What fragile neighborhoods look like? 00:10:21 Why Seth wrote this book? 00:16:48 The role of norms & closeness in relationships 00:24:30 Migration & social cohesion in neighborhoods 00:30:19 What's not working? 00:37:25 Problems in fragile neighborhoods 00:41:50 Homelessness 00:48:54 Why we have fragile neighborhoods? 00:57:34 The hero's journey: rethinking meritocracy 01:06:07 Placemaking & the role of jobs 01:12:44 The role of public service & elected politicians 01:17:38 The poverty industrial complex: obstacles to well being 01:26:50 Fragility prevention in neighborhoods 01:34:13 Lessons for international development 01:41:07 The case for reviving the American Dream 01:55:43 Wrap-up

Laura Frigenti is the Chief Executive Officer of the Global Partnership for Education (GPE). She has had an amazing career in international development working across Latin America, Africa, and Europe over almost four decades. Laura has held leadership positions in national government agencies, the World Bank, NGOs, and the private sector. Throughout her career, she focused on a range of issues, from trade and private sector development, to infrastructure, financial sector reform, and education. Laura was appointed Director General of the Italian Overseas Development Agency, with the responsibility of setting up the newly created agency. Laura also served as chief of staff to the President of the World Bank. We start by talking about Laura's journey, from growing up in Italy to how studying abroad sparked her interest in development. We move on to Laura's views on development, the main obstacles that stand in the way of achieving development (political will, resources, and human capital), and how we can foster the political will necessary for development to take place. Laura then also shares with us her perspective on the evolution of thinking around fragility and how, over the last 20 years, it has become clear that fragility is a global problem. She highlights two main dimensions of fragility - individual and institutional - and how widespread institutional fragility acts as an obstacle to overcoming individual fragility. Our conversation then focuses on education. We discuss the relationship between education and fragility, the key challenges facing the education sector today, and the need for education to create skills that are needed by the private sector. Laura sees education as foundational and going beyond individual learning - it is the cornerstone to creating a strong state, economic growth, political stability, as well as a stronger and more stable society. We also talk about the role of technology in closing existing educational gaps and whether technology can help increase access to education for girls in places like Afghanistan. Laura then explains the need for a new narrative for education in the midst of competing global crises and helps us understand the Global Partnership for Education's unique approach. Listen to the episode for so many more insights on development and education from Laura Frigenti! ***** Laura Frigenti Website: https://www.globalpartnership.org/who-we-are/ceo Twitter: https://twitter.com/GPECEO ***** About the Global Partnership for Education  GPE is a shared commitment to ending the world's learning crisis. We mobilize partners and funds to support nearly 90 lower-income countries to transform their education systems so that every girl and boy can get the quality education they need to unlock their full potential and contribute to building a better world.  For more than 20 years, GPE has mobilized partners and funds to get 160 million more girls and boys in school and improve learning in partner countries around the world.   To learn more: https://www.globalpartnership.org Twitter: https://twitter.com/gpforeducation TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Introduction 01:29 Laura's background 04:11 What is development? 06:37 Top three obstacles in the way of development 08:37 Options to foster political will 13:17 A perspective on fragility today 16:46 The relationship between education & fragility 23:53 The key challenges facing the education sector today 30:15 Is there a smell test for new ideas, new plans, grand strategies to change? 36:15 Education that responds to private sector needs 39:36 The role of technology in closing existing educational gaps 44:59 Can technology help increase access to learning for girls? 48:13 The need for a new narrative for education 52:33 The Global Partnership for Education's approach 56:37 When will our planet be fully literate and numerate? 58:50 Wrap-up

Dan Runde is Senior Vice President at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), where he directs the Project on Prosperity and Development. He previously worked for the U.S. Agency for International Development (or USAID), the World Bank's International Finance Corporation, and in investment banking with experience in Latin America, Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Dan recently wrote a new book called "The American Imperative: Reclaiming Global Leadership Through Soft Power." This is the first book in decades to look at U.S. non-military power through the lens of great power competition. He is also the host of "Building the Future: Freedom, Prosperity, and Foreign Policy," a podcast series focused on updating the United States' soft power playbook to meet the hopes and aspirations of developing countries. This was an incredibly fun conversation and chock-full of insights! We start by talking about Dan's path, from growing up in a family that taught him the importance of public service, to his experience of working for USAID, the World Bank's IFC, and currently for CSIS. Dan then talks about his views as a conservative internationalist, and why we need the trade, security, and multilateral system that was designed and built by the US, in partnership with others, after WWII. He goes on to highlight that while the system is necessary, it cannot function in the absence of leadership and asks us to imagine which set of values we would rather have shape the world we live in. We then shift to how global development is going to be increasingly refracted through the lens of great power competition, where the tools of soft power become even more critical. Dan's framing of development as applied foreign policy helps make the concept more real and applicable. We also discuss the areas of cooperation between US and Europe, as well as some of the tensions still present between these long-standing partners. Afterwards, we touch upon the thorny topic of mining, minerals, and climate change and the much-needed realization that decarbonization doesn't mean dematerialization. Our conversation then turns to the Global Fragility Act (GFA) and what the US needs to do to succeed in this new initiative. Dan sums up the top priorities for U.S. development efforts over the next five years: help Ukraine, close the digital divide, mining and minerals, nearshoring, and address corruption.   Listen to the episode and pick up Dan's book for so many more insights! ***** Dan Runde Website: https://www.csis.org/people/daniel-f-runde Twitter: https://twitter.com/danrunde LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/danielfrunde/ ***** Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast.  Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcast Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/ Website: https://f-world.org Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), Twitter (twitter.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran) EPISODE RESOURCES: Project on US Leadership in Development: https://www.csis.org/programs/project-us-leadership-development Building the Future: Freedom, Prosperity, and Foreign Policy with Dan Runde: https://www.csis.org/podcasts/building-future-freedom-prosperity-and-foreign-policy-dan-runde TIMESTAMPS: 00:00:00 Intro 00:01:32 Dan's background 00:10:11 What is a conservative internationalist? 00:19:37 The world needs leadership not entropy 00:23:11 What is development & the role of political engagement in donor countries 00:33:19 What is fair vs. unfair global power competition? 00:45:15 What is soft power? Development is applied foreign policy 00:52:31 US – Europe cooperation vs competition in development 01:06:24 The Global Fragility Act – how to get it right 01:10:59 Priorities for U.S. development efforts in the next five years

Christopher Blattman is the Ramalee E. Pearson Professor of Global Conflict Studies at the University of Chicago's Harris School of Public Policy, where he co-leads the Development Economics Center and the Obama Foundation Scholars Program. Chris also has affiliations with Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA), MIT's Poverty Action Lab, the National Bureau for Economic Research, and the Center for Global Development. He has served as a consultant and adviser to the World Bank, the United Nations, and governments in Uganda, Liberia, Colombia, and the United States.This conversation was a lot of fun and we covered a lot of ground: from Sparta to Kiev, from the Peloponnesian War to the Iraq War, from Russia's attack on Ukraine to the prospects of war between China and Taiwan, and so much more! We start by talking about Chris's journey, from growing up in Ottawa to finding his way to international work and then eventually to conflict. We then shift to Chris's book, “Why We Fight”, and the concept of fragility. Chris highlights how fragility sets the stage upon which the five reasons why we fight push a society away from bargaining to using violence or as he puts it: “when killing an Archduke in some random Balkan city can send the world to war.” The five reasons for war that Chris identifies in his book are: unchecked interests, intangible incentives, uncertainty, commitment problems, and misperceptions. We discuss whether there is a potential hierarchy among then, how they are connected, which of the five reasons played a role in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as well as how intangible incentives can be seen in the Ukrainians' resolution to protect their country. Chris also sums up decades of research and practical insights into 10 general principles that can set the world on the path to peace. We talk about how leaders are tempted by grand visions, but in reality, change happens incrementally – too bad 3% better doesn't make for a good slogan! Listen to the episode for so many more insights from Chris Blattman! *****Dr. Christopher BlattmanWebsite: https://chrisblattman.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/cblattsLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrisblattman*****Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcastInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/Website: https://f-world.orgMusic: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), Twitter (twitter.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)EPISODE RESOURCES:Blattman, Christopher (2022). Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace. New York: Viking PressThe prospects for war with China: Why I see a serious chance of World War III in the next decadehttps://chrisblattman.com/blog/2022/10/26/the-prospects-for-war-with-china-why-i-see-a-serious-chance-of-world-war-iii-in-the-next-decade/TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Introduction00:00:55 Chris's background – people, places, ideas that charted his path00:02:56 How Chris approaches risk and how to think about career moves  00:05:08 How culture enables risk taking and the role of failure in progress00:07:17 A potential correlation between risk taking and creativity00:10:50 What is fragility? 00:12:57 Dividing the pie and fragility00:15:32 Why we don't write books about wars that didn't happen OR Why enemies prefer to loathe one another in peace00:18:29 When do we actually fight00:22:41 The five reasons for wars00:26:49 How to think about uncertainty vs. commitment problems00:30:46 How do intangible incentives that evolve change the nature of commitment problems00:33:07 What is the interplay between uncertainty and technology00:38:16 How interdependence failed to stop Russia's attack on Ukraine00:44:58 Is there a threshold of violence that we should accept in order to avoid war? 00:47:56 Why the West missed the Ukrainian people's resolve - Most oppressed people don't revolt00:53:12 Bad guys and good guys support propaganda00:56:52 Can you change people's and leaders' misperceptions?01:01:19 Which leaders take their country to war - Leaders that have military training, but no battle experience, take their country to war01:05:06 Wicked problems – what are they and how to tell the difference between a simple and a wicked problem01:07:44 When misperceptions are desirable, aka politics01:11:29 Chris's 10 commandments as the anti-bureaucracy commandments

Seth Kaplan is a Visiting Fellow with the Mercatus Center's Program on Pluralism and Civil Exchange. He is also a Professorial Lecturer at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University, Senior Adviser for the Institute for Integrated Transitions (IFIT), and consultant to the World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), USAID, and the U.S. Department of State. Seth is the author of three books: “Fixing Fragile States: A New Paradigm for Development” (2008); “Betrayed: Promoting Inclusive Development in Fragile States (2013); and “Human Rights in Thick and Thin Societies: Universality Without Uniformity” (2018). His new book, “Fragile Neighborhoods: Repairing American Society, One Zip Code at a Time,” will be published in 2023. This episode is a grand tour of Seth's core ideas about fragile and conflict-affected countries. We start by talking about Seth's professional journey, which began out of his passion for travel and insatiable curiosity about why some societies work better than others. We then shift to the concept of fragility. Seth argues that social dynamics shape the institutions, understood both as “the rules of the game,” as well as the state apparatus. The pathways in and out of fragility or conflict depend on the interplay between formal institutions and informal social rules which govern collective action. Fragility and conflict can be prevented if social groups can come together and chart a unifying course of action that leads them towards prosperity – in other words, if they can manage political and social transitions. We then explore how these factors interact with politics, economics, and security. Seth provides a sweeping overview of situations where countries and communities made “good enough” progress to avoid collapse and even prosper, from Nigeria and Somaliland to Guatemala, India, and Indonesia. In most cases, leaders and elites were able to rally around a common storyline that enabled them achieve unity of purpose and navigate through tough transitions. We also talk about the hard cases, from Libya to Syria, Afghanistan, and Ukraine. The conversation delves into many fascinating tangents. We discuss the work of the Institute for Integrated Transitions (IFIT), and how it deploys its framework in Libya and Colombia. Seth also argues that multilateral organizations like the World Bank must create the conditions for brave leaders who can move their societies forward rather than focus on purely technical policy advice or project financing. We conclude with the reasons for hope in fragile states, and with a reflection on the skills needed to be an effective operator in the most complex societies (hint – it's about the human soul). *****Dr. Seth D. KaplanWebsite: https://sethkaplan.orgLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sethkaplan28Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University: https://sais.jhu.edu/users/skapla13Mercatus Center's Program on Pluralism and Civil Exchange: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/seth-d-kaplanInstitute for Integrated Transitions: https://ifit-transitions.org/experts/seth-d-kaplan/*****Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcastInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/Website: https://f-world.orgMusic: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), Twitter (twitter.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)EPISODE RESOURCES:United Nations; World Bank. 2018. Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/28337Seth D. Kaplan. 2023. Fragile Neighborhoods: Repairing American Society, One Zip Code at a Time. https://amzn.to/3la0FSGSeth D. Kaplan. 2018. Human Rights in Thick and Thin Societies: Universality Without Uniformity. https://amzn.to/3RLAQ7YSeth D. Kaplan. 2013. Betrayed: Promoting Inclusive Development in Fragile States. https://amzn.to/3YwbH2ZSeth D. Kaplan. 2008. Fixing Fragile States: A New Paradigm for Development. https://amzn.to/3Yu9BkVSunil Khilnani. 1997. The Idea of India. https://bit.ly/3DOyfnFTIMESTAMPS:00:01:04 Seth's story – Wondering youth  00:04:29 Passion for societies in transition (Nigeria)00:08:04 Differences between people: Western and non-Western cultures00:10:21 What is fragility?00:12:49 Social cohesion & strong institutions (Somaliland & Syria) 00:15:20 Social cohesion & impact on politics & economics (Botswana)  00:20:16 Historical exceptions and what makes them special (India & Indonesia)00:24:37 Unifying leaders building on historical legacy (Nehru & Sukarno)00:27:21 Transitions unveiling social fractures (Libya vs. Tunisia)00:31:50 Shifting to a good equilibrium – decentralization (Nigeria), social cohesion (Libya), external anchors (Guatemala)00:39:29 Tough choices: corruption & violence or total country implosion?00:44:55 Institute for Integrated Transitions (IFIT) approach01:00:33 Inclusiveness requires courage (Democrats & Republicans) 01:10:04 How to create a common identity? 01:14:51 Transitions for Ukraine, Afghanistan, & Syria  01:28:38 People in fragile states – reasons for hope 01:34:56 Skills, knowledge, & a new vision to help fragile states01:41:37 Wrap-up

Alexandre Marc is a political scientist and economist with over 30 years of experience working in areas of conflict and fragility across four continents. Alexandre was the Chief Specialist for Fragility, Conflict and Violence at the World Bank, and is the lead author of the United Nations-World Bank flagship report Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict (2018). He also co-led the preparation of the World Bank's Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence 2020-2025.This is the second episode in a three-part series with Alexandre covering the Pathways for Peace report, the stories that underpin its core ideas, and his recent work on the geopolitics of fragility. We start by talking about why conflict prevention should constantly be on the minds of political actors, civil society, the private sector, and international organizations. Alexandre paints a vivid picture of how the ebb and flow of crises in the absence of prevention can get a country trapped in a downward spiral of conflict and how countries should aim to surf above the narrow corridor between peace and conflict. We then discuss how communication about the risk of conflict can interact with expectations about the trajectory of a country and the delicate balance between raising an alarm without degenerating into alarmism; and how to learn what works in prevention by looking at countries that come close to conflict but manage to avoid it.Our conversation then moves on to dealing with “wild cards” in prevention – from extremist groups to external actors – and how we can engage in prevention when key actors have an interest in maintaining or starting a conflict. We also talk about the need to capitalize on opportune moments to help a country get on the pathway to peace and whether there are red lines that international organizations should cross in order to prevent conflict. Further, we discuss the role of the private sector in preventing conflict and the conditions in which it should play a role. Alexandre makes it clear that while the private sector is an important actor, it is no panacea and warns us not to force the private sector into situations where it can only succeed by being a bad actor.As a preview to our next episode with Alexandre on the geopolitics of fragility, we wrap up this conversation by talking about prevention in an interconnected world: how the global stage has changed since the release of the report in 2018, what should motivate citizens in Western countries to care about prevention, and the shifting roles and interests of China, Russia, Iran, and Turkey.Listen to the episode to hear Alexandre deliver a masterclass in prevention!*****Dr. Alexandre MarcWebsite: https://www.alexandremarc.orgTwitter: https://twitter.com/AlexanMarc1International Institute for Strategic Studies: https://www.iiss.org/people/conflict-security-and-development/alexandre-marcInstitute for Integrated Transitions: https://ifit-transitions.org/experts/alexandre-marc/*****Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcastInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/Website: https://f-world.orgMusic: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Video editing by: Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), Twitter (twitter.com/alexmmitran), or LinkedIn (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)EPISODE RESOURCES:United Nations; World Bank. 2018. **Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict.**Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/28337World Bank. 2011. World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development. World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/4389International Crisis Group. 2022. Considering Political Engagement with Al-Shabaab in Somalia. Crisis Group Africa Report N°309. 21 June 2022. https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/somalia/309-considering-political-engagement-al-shabaab-somaliaAlexandre Marc, Bruce Jones. 2021. The New Geopolitics of Fragility: Russia, China, and the Mounting Challenge for Peacebuilding. The Brookings Institution. Washington, DC. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/FP_20211015_new_geopolitics_fragility_marc_jones_v2.pdfTIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Introduction00:01:07 How to build a path to prevention00:05:35 Prevention needs attention not alarmism00:13:25 How to learn what successful prevention looks like 00:21:19 “Wild cards” in prevention and conflict: external interference & extreme beliefs00:29:34 What to do when actors have an interest in undermining prevention?   00:34:31 How to break out of “indefinite conflict” 00:40:40 How to capitalize on opportune moments for prevention00:47:22 Red lines and tradeoffs in prevention00:53:44 The private sector - does it have a role in prevention?01:02:10 Prevention in an interconnected world01:06:42 Why should we care about prevention?01:11:14 The competition between models of governance 01:16:46 Wrap-up

Sarah Cliffe is the director of New York University's Center on International Cooperation (CIC). Prior to that, she held several leadership positions at the World Bank and United Nations. Sarah pioneered the work on fragile and conflict-affected states at the World Bank, serving also as the Special Representative for the 2011 World Development Report on Conflict, Security, and Development. At the UN, she spearheaded efforts to help countries build civilian capacities to strengthen peacebuilding and post-conflict transitions. Sarah's vast experience ranges from countries as diverse as Afghanistan, Rwanda, South Africa, Indonesia, and Timor-Leste. She began her career in the United Kingdom and has degrees from Cambridge University and Columbia University. This episode is full of big questions and insightful answers from the very beginning.  To start, we speak to Sarah about her formative years, and how her early impressions of fragility and conflict were actually shaped by her upbringing in a mining town in Wales at a time of social upheaval in the United Kingdom. She also shares her perspectives on what communities at risk in the UK, South Africa, and Rwanda had in common – and why some were more resilient. Our conversation then turns more conceptual, as we take a look at how the insights of her work at the World Bank on conflict, security, and development can help us understand today's global fragility trends. We then explore in depth the big challenges on the world stage ahead of the UN's General Assembly meetings in September. How are the growing tensions between the US, Russia, and China affecting global governance, especially the UN? How has Russia's invasion of Ukraine divided the international community and what are the perspectives of developing countries? What factors have influenced responses to refugees from Ukraine and beyond? How is the future of multilateralism intertwined with domestic politics? And are there any silver linings to geopolitical fragmentation and the new Cold War between the US and China? We conclude on a high note, talking about reasons to be hopeful – listen to the episode to hear Sarah share many more insights into geopolitics, fragility, and the future of global governance.  We conclude on a high note, talking about hope and how history can give us reasons to be hopeful. Listen to the episode to hear Sarah share many more insights into geopolitics, fragility, and the future of global governance.  *****Sarah CliffeTwitter: https://twitter.com/sarah_cliffeThe Center on International Cooperation (CIC) at New York University: https://cic.nyu.edu/people/sarah-cliffe*****Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcastInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/Website: https://f-world.orgMusic: "Tornado" by Wintergatan. Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. *****EPISODE RESOURCES: World Bank. 2005. Low-Income Countries Under Stress: Update. Washington, DC: World Bank, https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/458871468328174684/pdf/34789.pdfWorld Bank. 2011. World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development. Washington, DC: World Bank, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/4389Sarah Cliffe and Karina Gerlach. Development Competition is Heating Up: China's Global Development Initiative, the G7 Partnership for Infrastructure, and the Global Alliance on Food Security. New York: Center on International Cooperation, July 22, 2022, https://cic.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/development_competition_is_heating_up_july_2022.pdfSarah Cliffe et all. How to Maintain International Unity on Ukraine (Part II). New York: Center on International Cooperation, May 31, 2022, https://cic.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/what_needs_to_be_done_to_maintain_international_unity_on_ukraine_part_ii.pdfSarah Cliffe et all. Recent UN Votes on Ukraine: What Needs to be Done to Maintain International Unity (Part I). New York: Center on International Cooperation, April 4, 2022, https://cic.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/what_needs_to_be_done_to_maintain_international_unity_on_ukraine_april_2022.pdfGeneral Assembly of the United Nations, High-Level Meetings of the 77th Session, https://www.un.org/en/ga/77/meetings/United Nations, Our Common Agenda: Report of the Secretary-General, New York: United Nations, https://www.un.org/en/content/common-agenda-report/assets/pdf/Common_Agenda_Report_English.pdf*****TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Introduction00:01:12 Growing up in Wales, working in South Africa, Rwanda after the genocide 00:04:31 Fragility & conflict in the UK, then and now 00:07:33 Trade unions as community leaders in the UK & South Africa00:10:19 Conflict vs. contestation: What stressors exacerbate violence? 00:14:53 Conflict, security, & development (World Development Report 2011)00:21:22 Fragility drivers: External stressors, group-based inequality, technology & identity 00:27:55 Geopolitical fragmentation, UN General Assembly Meetings 00:33:09 Multilateralism and domestic politics in a changing world order 00:37:05 Reforming the UN in a time of crisis 00:41:18 Russia's invasion of Ukraine, maintaining the credibility of the UN00:48:12 Ukraine, Iraq & the accountability of great powers 00:55:00 Responses to refugees: Ukraine, Syria, Libya 01:00:19 Refugees, identity, & double standards 01:05:50 Geopolitical fragmentation & conflict risks01:09:12 US vs. China: Is a new Cold War a bad thing? 01:14:18 Free speech & joy as proxies for good governance  01:17:47 History as a reason for hope   01:19:59 Wrap-up 

Dr. Abdirahman Duale Beileh is a Somali economist, professor, politician, philanthropist, poet, and well acclaimed song writer. In August 2022, Dr. Beileh finished his term as Somalia's Minister of Finance, having served for the past five years. Previously, he was Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation from 2014 to 2015. Dr. Beileh has been a driving force behind the reestablishment of the Somali state, and the country's return to the international scene. We start our conversation with memories from Dr. Beileh's childhood home outside the city of Hargeisa. An opportunity to study and work abroad in the United Arab Emirates and the United States drove him to question the situation in his native Somalia, eventually leading him to pursue a 30-year career at the African Development Bank (AfDB). We then discuss Somalia's transition from a failed state to one where elections and a peaceful transition of power recently took place. We explore what went right and the remaining challenges for the future. Dr. Beileh shares his experience of working with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and other partners on issues such as debt relief and the process of building from scratch an international coalition to support Somalia. He passionately talks about the challenges of instilling a “tax-payer mentality” in a country where most people only experience of taxation as extortion by the violent extremist group Al-Shabaab, as well as the urgent need to finance the security sector. He further shares his experience of collaborating with the finance ministers of Somalia's Federal Member States (FMS) and outlines his approach to building trust with citizens, federal member state governments, and international partners. And his toolkit is wide-ranging, from transparent communication to music and poetry. Finally, Dr. Beileh sets out a compelling 10-year vision for a Somalia: a country that is self-sufficient in food production, where the link between floods and famine is broken through good governance, and where young people can earn a quality education and pursue their dreams. Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcastInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/Website: https://f-world.orgMusic: "Tornado" by Wintergatan . Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net.EPISODE RESOURCES:Songs by Minister Beilehhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?list=RDNI1Fbh2HnF8&v=NI1Fbh2HnF8&feature=emb_rel_endhttps://fb.watch/c-r_vmUL6X/International Monetary Fund (2022) “IMF Executive Board Completes the Second and Third Reviews of the Extended Credit Facility for Somalia”, IMF, Washington https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2022/06/20/pr22215-somalia-imf-executive-board-completes-second-and-third-reviews-of-ecfRaballand, G. and J. Knebelman (2021) “Domestic Resource Mobilisation in Somalia”, The World Bank, Washington, D.C. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/121391596804622057/pdf/Domestic-Resource-Mobilization-in-Somalia.pdfAbshir, S. et al. (2020) “Tax and the State in Somalia”, Rift Valley Institute Briefing Paper, Rift Valley Institute 2020. https://riftvalley.net/sites/default/files/publication-documents/Tax%20and%20the%20State%20in%20Somalia%20by%20Sagal%20Abshir%2C%20Khalif%20Abdirahman%20and%20Hannah%20Stogdon%20-%20RVI%20%282020%29.pdfWorld Bank. (2017). “Somalia - Security and Justice Sector Public Expenditure Review” World Bank Group, Washington, D.C. : http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/644671486531571103/Somalia-Security-and-justice-sector-public-expenditure-reviewHiraal Institute (2020), “A Losing Game: Countering Al-Shabab's Financial System”, Hiraal Institute, Mogadishu, Somalia. https://hiraalinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/A-Losing-Game.pdfKeating, M., Abshir, S., (2018), “The Politics of Security in Somalia” NYU Center on International Cooperation, New York. https://cic.nyu.edu/publications/politics-security-somaliaIntegrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), (2022) “Somalia Updated IPC and Famine Risk Analysis Technical Release 4th June 2022”, IPC, Nairobi. https://fsnau.org/downloads/Somalia-Updated-IPC-and-Famine-Risk-Analysis-Technical-Release-4-Jun-2022.pdfIntergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) https://igad.intHorn of Africa Initiative https://hoainitiative.org TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Introduction00:01:41 Growing up in Somalia and early travels shaping the man00:09:36 Somalia's transition – success and challenges00:15:54 Being Minister of Finance in Somalia – Prioritizing spending and raising revenue00:22:00 Transparency and managing compounding crises 00:30:26 Financing security sector reform (SSR)00:35:25 Collaboration between the federal government and the member states of Somalia00:42:32 The State vs. Al Shabaab – governance in competition with violent extremism00:48:46 Exiting fragility – can Somalia find a path?00:51:57 Work-ethic and Dr. Beileh's approach to fragility00:58:46 Values & culture – fostering the right approach to economic growth01:03:41 Regional collaboration in the Horn of Africa 01:09:04 Working with international institutions – from blind-spots to trust01:12:58 Oil & gas in Somalia - avoiding the resource curse 01:16:44 A vision for Somalia in 10 years 01:23:51 Wrap-up

Alexandre Marc is a political scientist and economist with over 30 years of experience working in areas of conflict and fragility across four continents. Alexandre was the Chief Specialist for Fragility, Conflict and Violence at the World Bank, and is the lead author of the United Nations-World Bank flagship report Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict (2018). He also co-led the preparation of the World Bank's Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence 2020-2025.This is the first episode in a series with Alexandre covering the Pathways for Peace report, the stories that underpin its core ideas, and his recent work on the geopolitics of fragility. We start by talking about Alexandre's upbringing and how traveling with his parents – an adventure worthy of an Indiana Jones movie - led him to discover the wonders of different cultures. Experiences such as staying in an archeological mission in Egypt, crossing Afghanistan and Iran by car, and a road trip from Paris to Jordan sparked Alexandre's interest in how different cultures coexist and led him to try to understand conflict. We then talk about to the relationship between the price of bananas and witchcraft in Cameroon – and we sure had questions about it! Alexandre then shares with us how caring about people, culture, and history helps you better understand the origins and dynamics of conflict, the need to differentiate between conflict and violent conflict, and how the rise in what he calls “conflicts of fragility” led to the Pathways for Peace report. The conversation also explores how actors, institutions, and structural factors can push a country towards peace or conflict, why peace is desirable, the dangers of horizontal inequality, and the importance of dignity. And there's so much more! Listen to the episode to hear Alexandre share many more insights into fragility, conflict, and peace. *****Alexandre MarcWebsite: https://www.alexandremarc.orgTwitter: https://twitter.com/AlexanMarc1International Institute for Strategic Studies : https://www.iiss.org/people/conflict-security-and-development/alexandre-marcInstitute for Integrated Transitions: https://ifit-transitions.org/experts/alexandre-marc/*****Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcastInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/Website: https://f-world.orgMusic: "Tornado" by Wintergatan . Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Editing by Alex Mitran - find Alex on Facebook (facebook.com/alexmmitran), Twitter (twitter.com/alexmmitran), or Linkedin (linkedin.com/in/alexmmitran)*****EPISODE RESOURCES: United Nations; World Bank. 2018. Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict.Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/28337 World Bank. 2011. World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development. World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/4389Great Britain. Foreign Office. Historical Section. Cameroon. London, H. M. Stationery off, 1920. Pdf. Retrieved from the Library of Congress, www.loc.gov/item/a22000968/Douglass C. North – Facts. NobelPrize.org. Nobel Prize Outreach AB 2022. Tue. 2 Aug 2022. https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1993/north/facts/Stewart, Frances. 2011. Horizontal Inequalities as a Cause of Conflict: A Review of CRISE Findings.Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/9126 Marc, Alexandre; Willman, Alys; Aslam, Ghazia; Rebosio, Michelle; Balasuriya, Kanishka. 2013. Societal Dynamics and Fragility: Engaging Societies in Responding to Fragile Situations. New frontiers of social policy. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/12222Alexandre Marc, Bruce Jones. 2021. The New Geopolitics of Fragility: Russia, China, and the Mounting Challenge for Peacebuilding. The Brookings Institution. Washington, DC. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/FP_20211015_new_geopolitics_fragility_marc_jones_v2.pdfTIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Introduction00:01:21 Indiana Jones-like childhood and the discovery of different cultures00:04:35 Banana trade and witchcraft00:06:58 How to see the world in a different way00:09:08 Caring about people, culture, and history helps you better understand conflict00:12:25 What is conflict?00:15:42 Does conflict differ across different cultures? 00:18:48 The rise of "conflicts of fragility"00:23:57 The role of institutions in fragility and conflict00:29:00 What is fragility? Depends on who is asking.00:33:53 The interplay of actors, institutions, and structural factors00:41:19 Leadership must come from inside00:46:15 Actors have a choice - focus on structural factors that enhance dignity00:47:55 Development aid shouldn't be ideological00:54:20 Why is peace desirable?01:01:07 What people fight about, a.k.a. the arenas of contestation.01:09:49 How do the actors, structural factors, and institutions interact in the arenas?01:15:05 Horizontal inequality – when economic issues connect to identity issues01:22:46 On the inequality of dignity & future episodes in the Pathways for Peace series01:24:26 Wrap-up

Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcastInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/Website: https://f-world.orgMusic: "Tornado" by Wintergatan . Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Free License to use this track in your video can be downloaded at www.wintergatan.net.RESOURCES:OECD States of Fragility Platform: http://www3.compareyourcountry.org/states-of-fragility/about/0/States of Fragility 2020 Report: https://www.oecd.org/dac/states-of-fragility-fa5a6770-en.htmThe Crises & Fragility team in the Global Partnerships & Policies Division of the Development Cooperation Directorate (DCD) of the OECD. https://www.oecd.org/dac/conflict-fragility-resilience/Marley, J. and H. Desai (2020), "Fragility and Agenda 2030: Navigating shocks and pressures in fragile contexts", OECD Development Co-operation Working Papers, No. 82, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/65d5cb9c-en.Marley, J. (2020), "Peacebuilding in fragile contexts", OECD Development Co-operation Working Papers, No. 83, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/d222bc0a-en.Forsberg, E. and J. Marley (2020), "Diplomacy and peace in fragile contexts", OECD Development Co-operation Working Papers, No. 77, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/6a684a4b-en.OECD (2022) “Adding the human dimension to the OECD fragility framework”, OECD Development Co-operation Directorate, OECD Publishing, Paris. https://www.oecd.org/dac/2022-human-dimension-fragility.pdfOECD (2022), OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 1: Preliminary version, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/62d0ca31-en.TIMESTAMPS:0:00 Introduction0:45 The 80s in Ireland and the military as a career2:06 Jonathan's 1st deployment with NATO in Kosovo and civil-military cooperation5:45 The daily life of a peacekeeper8:31 Peacekeeping entrepreneurship11:25 How to build trust as a soldier and peacekeeper15:44 What's the difference: peacekeeping, peacebuilding, and development?19:39 The missing operational middle: local peacebuilding vs. national development planning23:51 Planning challenges: military vs. development28:45 Business case for prevention34:07 What is fragility?39:58 Value added: States of Fragility & the OECD44:54 Comfortable in ambiguity: the continuum of fragility50:52 Ukraine & the price of a cup of coffee: the value of multidimensional analysis and systems thinking57:23 How can diplomacy help in Ukraine and the role of diplomacy in development1:03:47 Diversity of perspectives on fragility and the challenges of communication1:08:41 The human dimension: a new addition to the States of Fragility framework1:15:34 Wrap-up

Katherine Marshall is professor of the practice of development, conflict, and religion in the Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and one of the world's foremost experts on the nexus between faith, ethics, and development. In her 35 years with the World Bank, Katherine was a pioneer for women in international development and led the Bank's work in some of the world's most fragile and poor nations. She was also one of the first international development experts to work on the critical importance of religion in global development. In the first part of our conversation, we talk about Katherine's experience as a woman as she joined the World Bank in 1971, what was then seen as new ideas about women as actors in development, the slowly dawning awareness of the importance of girls' education, and the need to defend both the roles of women within the institution and the roles of women in development. Katherine then shares with us how she became fascinated by the topic of religion at a time development professionals rarely spoke about or thought much about it. She calls it an adventure with a large number of large blind spots. It was fascinating because it took the work and the institution of the World Bank itself into a new area of ethics, reaching into more fundamental questions about what development is and how different economic models affect people's lives. We also talk about how development and religious organizations relate to different established orthodoxies. One of the ironies Katherine mentions is the religious sounding language used to describe many aspects of the work of development institutions - people go on missions and they follow a doctrine that relies on unseen forces and invisible hands. Listen to the episode to hear Katherine discuss many more fascinating connections between religion and development. The episode was recorded on April 9th, 2021. Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcastInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/Website: https://f-world.orgMusic: "Tornado" by Wintergatan . Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Free License to use this track in your video can be downloaded at www.wintergatan.net. EPISODE RESOURCES:Berkley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs: https://berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/people/katherine-marshallWomen, Religion and Peacebuilding - Illuminating the Unseen (2015) by Katherine Marshall https://www.usip.org/publications/2015/09/women-religion-and-peacebuildingGlobal Institutions of Religion: Ancient Movers, Modern Shakers (2013) by Katherine Marshall https://berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/events/global-institutions-of-religion-ancient-movers-modern-shakersThe World Bank: From Reconstruction to Development to Equity (2008) by Katherine Marshall https://www.routledge.com/The-World-Bank-From-Reconstruction-to-Development-to-Equity/Marshall/p/book/9780415381321

Steen Sonne Andersen is currently the Ambassador of Denmark to Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, and Benin. He is based in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. An economist by training, Steen began his career working on local governance in Denmark's poorer regions. He then worked with international development agencies in India, Nepal, Bhutan, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Tanzania focusing primarily on the education sector. In the start of our conversation, Steen talks about the early days of his professional journey, when a series of urban development projects funded by the European Union in Denmark sparked his curiosity in understanding community resilience and state modernization. We then talk about the process of state building in the Sahel: Steen paints a vivid picture of fragility and conflict drivers in the region, from water scarcity and rapid population growth, to enduring poverty and violent extremism. He also outlines Denmark's aid priorities to prevent further conflict and help stabilize the Sahel through support for effective water management infrastructure and security and justice reform. Throughout the conversation, we talk about social protection and the meaning of solidarity in the Sahel, how values shape community resilience, the social contract in post-colonial states, and the role of education in helping women and girls realize their potential. The episode was recorded on May 23rd, 2021. Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcastInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/Website: https://f-world.orgMusic: "Tornado" by Wintergatan . Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Free License to use this track in your video can be downloaded at www.wintergatan.net. EPISODE RESOURCESEmbassy of Denmark in Burkina Faso: https://burkinafaso.um.dk/fr/ambassade-du-danemarkDanish Development Cooperation (DANIDA): https://um.dk/en/danidaThe World Bank's Sahel Adaptive Social Protection ProgramRebekka Grun, Mira Saidi, and Paul M. Bisca. 2020. “Adapting Social Safety Net Operations to Insecurity in the Sahel.” SASSP Operational and Policy Note Series, Note 2. Washington, DC: World Bank.Francis Fukuyama. 2011. The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman Times to the French Revolution. New York: Farrar, Straus and GirouxAlexandre Marc, Neelam Verjee, and Stephen Mogaka. 2015. The Challenge of Stability and Security in West Africa. Washington, DC: World Bank; and Agence Française de Développement.

Koen Davidse is the World Bank Group's Executive Director from the Netherlands since 2018. He represents a group of countries that also includes Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Georgia, Israel, North Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, and Ukraine. Previously, he served as the Deputy Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General in Mali and held senior positions in the Netherlands' Ministry of Foreign Affairs. In the beginning of our conversation, Koen shares his reasons for choosing a career in diplomacy and development, with stints in India, Sudan, Mali, and also at the World Bank and UN. We then talk about why security sector reform (SSR) that builds effective but also affordable militaries, police, and justice institutions is essential to make progress on economic development in fragile states. Next, we delve deeper into his work in Sudan and Mali. We discuss the challenges of being an honest broker in the implementation of the peace agreement leading to South Sudan's independence in 2011 and what it's like to lead a peacekeeping mission aiming to bring stability in Mali. Throughout the episode, Koen shares his insights about why we need peace entrepreneurs to make lasting change, what it takes to achieve better coordination between peace, development, and humanitarian actors, and how to put vulnerable people at the center of global efforts to help fragile states. This episode was recorded on June 18, 2021. Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, and Johan Bjurman Bergman co-host F-World: The Fragility Podcast. Twitter: https://twitter.com/fworldpodcastInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/fworldpodcast/Website: https://f-world.org Music: "Tornado" by Wintergatan . Many thanks to Wintergartan for allowing us to use their wonderful music! This track can be downloaded for free at www.wintergatan.net. Free License to use this track in your video can be downloaded at www.wintergatan.net.  EPISODE RESOURCES:Paul Collier, 2007. “The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It.” New York: Oxford University Press. https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-bottom-billion-9780195311457?cc=us&lang=en&#Security and Development in Fragile States: The Netherlands Strategy (2008-2011) https://www.government.nl/binaries/government/documents/reports/2011/12/23/strategy-setting-out-the-principles-governing-dutch-policy-on-fragile-states-for-2008-2011/english-version-fs-strategy-02-03-2009.pdfUnited Nations, 2006. Delivering as One: Report of the Secretary-General's High Level Panel. New York: United Nations https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/publications/Delivering-as-One.pdfNew Deal for Fragile States (2011),  https://www.pbsbdialogue.org/en/new-deal/about-new-deal/World Bank. “World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development.” Washington, DC: World Bank https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/4389Bernard Harborne, William Dorotinsky, and Paul M. Bisca (eds). “Securing Development: Public Finance and the Security Sector.” Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/25138Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement (2005) https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/SD_060000_The%20Comprehensive%20Peace%20Agreement.pdfUnited Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission In Mali (MINUSMA), https://minusma.unmissions.org/enCalin Trenkov-Vermuth and Paul M. Bisca. 2021. “Global Fragility Act: A Chance to Reshape International Security Assistance?” Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace                                                                                                                           https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/01/global-fragility-act-chance-reshape-international-security-assistanceFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2020. “Visualizing the P in the Humanitarian-Development-Peace Nexus.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oU45k07s70I

Dr. Shanta Devarajan is a professor at Georgetown University's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, where he teaches development economics. Previously, Shanta worked for nearly three decades at the World Bank, where he was the Senior Director for Development Economics (DEC) and served as acting Chief Economist. This episode starts with Shanta's account of his early work on indicators to measure state fragility at the World Bank, and how his understanding of fragility has evolved over time. We then explore how country rankings are linked to aid allocations, and why venture capital is a better model to help countries escape the fragility trap than current practices. We also discuss how international financial institutions navigate the relationship with governments. Reflecting on his work prior to the Arab Spring, Shanta argues that development financing institutions should use knowledge and data to build greater trust with citizens – their ultimate clients. We then get more technical and discuss how taxation in oil-rich countries like South Sudan can promote solidarity, how conflict can shape government decisions on infrastructure development, and the role of macroeconomic policy in fragile states. This episode was recorded on April 14, 2021.Shanta's Blog ‘Future Development' at The Brookings Institution: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/EPISODE RESOURCES:Andrimihaja, Cinyabuguma, and Devarajan (2011) Avoiding the Fragility Trap in Africa - https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/3652/wps5884.pdf?sequence=1World Bank (2011) World Development Report 2011: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/4389World Happiness Report, Gallup: https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2021/USIP coverage and analysis of South Sudan: https://www.usip.org/programs/independence-south-sudanDevarajan and Giugale (2013). The Case for Direct Transfers of Resource Revenues in Africa https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/direct-dividend-payments.pdfBanerjee (2016) Aadhaar: Digital Inclusion and Public Services in Indiahttps://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/655801461250682317-0050022016/original/WDR16BPAadhaarPaperBanerjee.pdfBuller et al. (2018) A mixed-method review of cash transfers and intimate partner violence in low and middle-income countrieshttps://www.unicef-irc.org/publications/938-a-mixed-method-review-of-cash-transfers-and-intimate-partner-violence-in-low-and.htmlWorld Bank CPIA https://www.worldbank.org/en/data/datatopics/cpia

Sara Noshadi is an expert on the reconstruction of cultural heritage and creative economies in war-torn countries. She has developed and led national programs promoting unity and reconciliation through culture in Iraq after the fall of the Islamic State (2017), as well as in Afghanistan. Originally from Iran, Sara was trained as an anthropologist at the University of Tehran and worked at the National Center for Scientific Research in Paris. In this episode, Sara tells the story of how a trip to post-civil war Tajikistan led her to focus on culture as a force for solidarity and peace. We discuss why it is so difficult to work on this agenda in fragile and conflict-affected states, where typical economic development programs fail to take into account the complex role of culture in shaping project outcomes. Sara also shares her views on how using culture as a lens can help make urban planning or mining projects more effective, and why conflict-affected states would benefit from 30 year-long national cultural programs disconnected from donor funding cycles.  Lastly, we talk about how cultural programming can help children and youth imagine a different future for themselves and new shared fictions for their countries. Sara is speaking in a personal capacity and her views do not represent the institutions or organizations that she is professionally affiliated with. The episode was recorded on May 19, 2021.  Episode ResourcesWorld Bank - World Development Report 2011: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/4389World Bank CPIA https://www.worldbank.org/en/data/datatopics/cpiaSara Noshadi - Keeping history alive: safeguarding cultural heritage in post-conflict Afghanistan - https://books.google.se/books?id=mGx5DAAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&hl=sv&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=falseUNESCO Video of the Minaret of Jam - The Minaret and Archaeological Remains of Jam, in Afghanistan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkM5JNZJ4BYAfghanistan's Citizens' Charter Program: Empowering Communities for Better Services - https://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2020/10/20/afghanistans-citizens-charter-program-empowering-communities-for-better-servicesDebate on the inclusion of ethnicity on the Afghan Identity Cards (Taskira) https://www.loc.gov/item/global-legal-monitor/2018-07-19/afghanistan-distribution-of-controversial-electronic-identity-cards-launched/

Scott Guggenheim, an anthropologist by training, is one of the originators of community driven development (CDD). He has worked for the World Bank for over 30 years and served as a senior advisor to the President of Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani. In this episode, Scott shares how his interest in anthropology started during a 6-month trip to Mexico as a 12-year old, and how an honest but controversial answer about the Vietnam War got him his first job at the World Bank. We then talk about how CDD started in Indonesia facilitated by the 1998 East Asia financial crisis, and how it was possible to build a national program driven by local community insights. We also discuss the importance of interdisciplinary work for development and the role of crises in driving innovation. In the second half of the conversation, we turn to Afghanistan. Scott shares insights gained during his time inside the presidential palace in Kabul, and his views on the existential challenges the country faces. We also talk about what could shift the path Afghanistan has been on for nearly half a century. The episode was recorded on April 11, 2021.EPISODE RESOURCESCommunity DevelopmentEric Wolf (1957) Closed Corporate Peasant Communities in Mesoamerica and Central Java. Southwestern Journal fo Anthropology v 13. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/soutjanth.13.1.3629154Wong and Guggenheim (2018) Community Driven Development Myths and Realitites https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/677351525887961626/pdf/WPS8435.pdfWorld Values Survey https://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/wvs.jspBen Bernanke (2013) Creating Resilient Communities (speech)https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20130412a.htmRaghuram Rajan (2019) The Third Pillar: How Markets and the State Leave the Community Behind https://www.amazon.com/Third-Pillar-Markets-Community-Behind/dp/0525558314IndonesiaBackground on Indonesia - Fall of Suharto Government 1998 https://www.nytimes.com/1998/05/21/world/fall-suharto-overview-suharto-besieged-steps-down-after-32-year-rule-indonesia.htmlCernea and Guggenheim (1999) The Economics of Involuntary Settlement.  https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/790851468773055283/pdf/multi-page.pdfScott Guggenheim et al. (2004). Indonesia's Kecamatan Development Program: A Large-Scale Use of Community Development to Reduce Poverty https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/252411468753369732/pdf/307790IND0KDP0cty0devt01see0also0307591.pdfBenjamin Olken (2005) Corruption and the costs of redistribution: Micro evidence from Indonesia https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/files/gov2126/files/olken_indonesia_0.pdfBannerjee and Olken et al (2021) Food vs. Food Stamps: Evidence from an At-Scale Experiment in Indonesia https://economics.mit.edu/files/21317On the Poverty LineA visualization of the poverty line in India https://onehundredhomes.inHow to measure poverty and define the poverty line: Haughton (2009) A handbook on poverty and inequality. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/11985Feminist Economics http://www.feministeconomics.net/highlights/On Albert HirshmanThe Economist Obituary: https://www.economist.com/business/2012/12/22/exit-albert-hirschmanDavid Ellerman (2001). Hirschmanian Themes of Social Learning and Change https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/429621468739155797/pdf/multi0page.pdfAfghanistanWorld Bank (2021). Afghanistan Risk and Resilience Assessment https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/53589198fdb2c367bfa07ee06d9bd7c1-0310012021/original/Afghanistan-Risk-and-Resilient-Assessment.pdfGuggenheim and Farahi (2020) Pathways for Post-Peace Development in Afghanistan https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/11/pathways-post-peace-development-afghanistanThomas Barfield (2012) Afghanistan: A Cultural and Political History https://www.amazon.com/Afghanistan-Cultural-Political-Princeton-Politics/dp/0691154414Barnett Rubin (2020) Afghanistan: What Everyone Needs to Know  https://www.amazon.com/Afghanistan-What-Everyone-Needs-Know®/dp/0190496649Kate Clark (2020) The Cost of Support to Afghanistan:Considering inequality, poverty and lack of democracy through the ‘rentier state' lens https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/05/20200528-Rentier-1.pdfUNDP (2020). Human Development Indicators for Afghanistan http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/Country-Profiles/AFG.pdf