Podcasts about shadowstats

A rogue's gallery of inflation hucksters have made lots of money over the years by preying on the sense that the average consumer/investor has that "my inflation is higher than the CPI," with some spin usually on how the gov'mint is intentionally understating inflation for some nefarious reason. These hucksters take advantage of the fact that, for reasons that are so native to the economic system that Daniel Kahneman won a Nobel Prize for describing them, consumers perceptions are not just biased, but biased in systematic ways - which, in the case of inflation, always tends to increase the perceived level of inflation. In this episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy explains how these biases operate on our sense of inflation. If you too want to sound erudite at your next cocktail party - "Actually, Muffy, inflation just seems like it's 10% because..." - then this is a must-listen episode. If not, then you're also probably invited to more cocktail parties than the Inflation Guy is.   NOTES Ashton, Michael, “Real-Feel” Inflation: Quantitative Estimation of Inflation Perceptions, Business Economics, Volume 47, pages 14–26, (2012)  (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/be.2011.35 ) Blog callback: Eighth Grade Math vs Shadowstats (https://inflationguy.blog/2021/05/25/eighth-grade-math-vs-shadowstats/ ) Podcast callback: Ep. 72: Chapwood Index vs CPI – Which is the Better Inflation Index?     (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-72-chapwood-index-vs-cpi-%e2%80%93-which-is-the-better-inflation-index/ ) Blog for this month's CPI: “Inflation Guy's CPI Summary (August 2024)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2024/09/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-august-2024/ ) To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/    (we may close up subscriptions to this soon) To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/ Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

Kicking off the MegaCap Earnings - some concerning items. Rate Cut Bets Fizzle Yields Keep Rising The VIX – Hovering around 16 And our Guest – Johns Williams from ShadowStats John Williams, founder and publisher of ShadowStats.com.   He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College, and an M.B.A. from Dartmouth‘s Amos Tuck School of Business Administration, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar.   During his career as a consulting economist in the last 33 years, he has worked with individuals as well with as Fortune 500 companies. Out of necessity, he became a specialist in government economic reporting.   An early client's large manufacturer of commercial airplanes had developed a model for predicting revenue passenger miles, a primary sales forecasting tool.   Heavily dependent on the GNP (now GDP) out of the Department of Commerce, the model suddenly stopped working, and the client asked Williams to fix it.   The GNP numbers were faulty, he corrected them (official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later), and the model worked again, at least for a while, until changes in GNP methodology eventually made the underlying data worthless. That began a lengthy process exploring the history and nature of economic reporting and interviewing key people involved in the system from the early days of government reporting through the present.   For a number of years, he conducted surveys among business economists as to the quality of government statistics.   The vast majority thought it was pretty bad, with survey results leading to 1989 front-page stories in the New York Times and Investors Daily, considerable coverage in the broadcast media and a joint meeting with representatives of all the U.S. government‘s statistical agencies. Nonetheless, the quality of government reporting has deteriorated sharply in the last couple of decades.   Problems include changes in reporting methodologies that have pushed headline economic and inflation results outside the realm of real-world or common experience. Over the decades, Williams has given thousands of presentations on the U.S. economic outlook and on approaches to analyzing economic data, to clients "large and small” including talks with members of the business, banking, government, press, academic, brokerage and investment communities, as well as having provided testimony before the U.S. Congress. Public response to a 2004 series of articles on the quality of government statistics was so strong that he started Shadow Government Statistics, a newsletter first published on ShadowStats.com in 2004.   That weekly commentary is published as part of his economic consulting services. Find out more about ShadowStats.com Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (GLD), (SLV), (MSFT), (META)

In this episode, David and Eric discuss how to incorporate seasonality into your revenue forecast. They give reasons why you should do this and a practical guide on how to do it. They also discuss the September CPI and question its accuracy in tracking how expensive American life has become. They look at www.shadowstats.com as...

The Inflation Guy is often asked about the Chapwood Index, which is a non-governmental inflation index that is billed as a “true cost of living index, unlike CPI.” In what ways does this index achieve that goal, and where does it fall short? This episode also serves as another illustration of how the Inflation Guy can go off the rails even when given a simple assignment. Which is better, Chapwood or CPI? See what the Inflation Guy has to say about the matter. Notes: Price Stats (neé Billion Prices Project) https://www.pricestats.com/inflation-series?chart=1837 - an independent (but no longer free) inflation index that the Inflation Guy likes better than the Chapwood Index. Blog article: “Eighth-Grade Math vs Shadowstats” https://inflationguy.blog/2021/05/25/eighth-grade-math-vs-shadowstats/ Podcast callbacks: “Ep. 7: Rents and Sensibility” https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-7-rents-and-sensibility/ “Ep. 4: The Making of an Inflation Indedx” https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/inflation-guy-podcast-episode-4-the-making-of-an-inflation-index

GDP looking good, inflation, coming down – Now Waiting for the Fed'd decision next week. Earnings outlook – murky at best while  markets in full melt-up mode – kind of fun to watch. Out guest John Williams , founder of ShadowStats Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ John Williams””founder and publisher of ShadowStats.com.   He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College, and an M.B.A. from Dartmouth‘s Amos Tuck School of Business Administration, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar.   During his career as a consulting economist in the last 33 years, he has worked with individuals as well with as Fortune 500 companies. Out of necessity, he became a specialist in government economic reporting.   An early client””a large manufacturer of commercial airplanes””had developed a model for predicting revenue passenger miles, a primary sales forecasting tool.   Heavily dependent on the GNP (now GDP) out of the Department of Commerce, the model suddenly stopped working, and the client asked Williams to fix it.   The GNP numbers were faulty, he corrected them (official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later), and the model worked again, at least for a while, until changes in GNP methodology eventually made the underlying data worthless. That began a lengthy process exploring the history and nature of economic reporting and interviewing key people involved in the system from the early days of government reporting through the present.   For a number of years, he conducted surveys among business economists as to the quality of government statistics.   The vast majority thought it was pretty bad, with survey results leading to 1989 front-page stories in the New York Times and Investors Daily, considerable coverage in the broadcast media and a joint meeting with representatives of all the U.S. government‘s statistical agencies. Nonetheless, the quality of government reporting has deteriorated sharply in the last couple of decades.   Problems include changes in reporting methodologies that have pushed headline economic and inflation results outside the realm of real-world or common experience. Over the decades, Williams has given thousands of presentations on the U.S. economic outlook and on approaches to analyzing economic data, to clients””large and small””including talks with members of the business, banking, government, press, academic, brokerage and investment communities, as well as having provided testimony before the U.S. Congress. Public response to a 2004 series of articles on the quality of government statistics was so strong that he started Shadow Government Statistics, a newsletter first published on ShadowStats.com in 2004.   That weekly commentary is published as part of his economic consulting services. Find out more about ShadowStats.com Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (AAPL), (OIL), (TSLA), MSFT), (INTC)

"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." That statement, made by Orson Wells in his book 1984, which was written back in 1948, rings absolutely true especially with the release of the recent Twitter Files!   The possibility of a perpetual source of clean energy, has given Jason a bit of hope as he declares a statement he hasn't made in a long while (given all the censorship and political climate, among other things): "It's an amazing time to be alive!" And a move by a county to secede from California and the shortage of housing inventory has definitely made things more interesting! And today, Jason talks with the co-founder of Reaganomics, Paul Craig Roberts. Together, they discuss some of the international threats that could face America, thanks to the recent actions from Washington. Specifically, they deal with issues of demography, currency and military developments in Russia and China and consider the potential impact of each of these on the United States. Note: This conversation was originally recorded in 2014 and shows how timely Mr. Roberts' comments are. For awesome video content, subscribe to Jason's YouTube channel. And make sure to subscribe! And at the risk of offending some listeners... Merry Christmas! Or if you prefer, Happy Holidays! Key Takeaways: Jason's editorial 1:22 A revolutionary act 2:28 Introducing Paul Craig Roberts 2:53 Housing inventory this week and Reaganomics 4:06 Demand side: total single family homes pending contract with new contracts per week  9:16 Housing inventory extremely low, far from a "normal" market 11:07 What it means for prices and rents 11:45 A new hope, a perpetual motion machine 17:08 The average pay on Wall Street 19:26 So long, California! Major county to study secession  22:19 Get your tickets to Empowered Investor LIVE today!  Paul Craig Roberts interview 23:21 Welcome, Paul 24:45 The ruble should be strong in comparison to the dollar, and yet the ruble is risking collapse. 28:39 The reserve currency status no longer seems as stable when we look at potential drops in use of the dollar. 35:55 Paul Craig Roberts describes the US's current position with regards to Russia and China. 45:56 We've got a whole generation of people who now can't afford to live on their own terms. 49:50 The discussion moves to inflation and how it could transform the US economy. 57:57 With so many problems, is there a solution? Quotables: "They're full of hubris, they're arrogant. I know them. I spent 25 years with them. I've never met 12 intelligent people in Washington." - Paul Craig Roberts "We don't need a $1 Trillion military security complex. The only enemy we have are the ones we create for ourselves in order to keep the military security entitlement going." - Paul Craig Roberts  Mentioned: So Long, California Newser article Altos Research Website: www.PaulCraigRoberts.org ShadowStats.com   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com

Interview recorded - 24th of October, 2022On todays episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of speaking with John Williams, founder of ShadowStats, a website that calculates the “actual” inflation rate.During our conversation we talked about what is wrong with our current measurement, why inflation may actually be 16%, whether gold moves with this measurement of inflation and more. I hope you enjoy! 0:00 - Introduction0:26 - What is wrong with our current measurement of inflation?6:05 - Gold moving with inflation?9:10 - When else did we experience this type of inflation?11:35 - What was actual inflation like through the 2010's?13:00 - Any indicators to watch what real CPI might be in the coming months?21:00 - How does the FED reduce Q1?21:45 - Impact on precious metals23:45 - One message to take away from interview?Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies.John has been a private consulting economist and, out of necessity, had to become a specialist in government economic reporting. One of his early clients was a large manufacturer of commercial airplanes, who had developed an econometric model for predicting revenue passenger miles. The level of revenue passenger miles was their primary sales forecasting tool, and the model was heavily dependent on the GNP (now GDP) as reported by the Department of Commerce.  Suddenly, their model stopped working, and they asked John if he could fix it. He realised the GNP numbers were faulty, corrected them for his client (official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later) and the model worked again, at least for a while, until GNP methodological changes eventually made the underlying data worthless. That began a lengthy process of exploring the history and nature of economic reporting and in interviewing key people involved in the process from the early days of government reporting through the present. For a number of years he conducted surveys among business economists as to the quality of government statistics (the vast majority thought it was pretty bad), and his results led to front page stories in 1989 in the New York Times and Investors Daily (now Investors Business Daily), considerable coverage in the broadcast media and a joint meeting with representatives of all the government's statistical agencies.  Nonetheless, the quality of government reporting has deteriorated sharply in the last couple of decades. Reporting problems have included methodological changes to economic reporting that have pushed headline economic and inflation results out of the realm of real-world or common experience.Over the decades, well in excess of 1,000 presentations have been given on the economic outlook, or on approaches to analyzing economic data, to clients—large and small—including talks with members of the business, banking, government, press, academic, brokerage and investment communities. John has also have provided testimony before Congress. John Williams - Shadowstats- http://www.shadowstats.com/Twitter - https://twitter.com/shadowstats?s=21&t=Sfk6z767icOb135AC_Kx0wWTFinance -Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

Aaron Chapman is a veteran in the finance industry with 25 years of experience helping clients better understand, source, and finance cash-flow positive investment properties. He advises over 100 clients a month in the acquisition and financing of their investment properties and primary residences. Aaron is ranked in the top 1% of mortgage loan processors in the country, in an industry of over 300,000 licensed loan originators, closing in excess of 100 transactions per month. In today's episode Aaron gives us his take on the current interest rate and inflationary environment, where he sees things going, and his thoughts on what investors should be doing in a time like this. Episode link: https://www.aaronbchapman.com/ https://apps.apple.com/uy/app/qjo-investment-tool/id1533823468 --- Transcript Before we jump into the episode, here's a quick disclaimer about our content. The Remote Real Estate Investor Podcast is for informational purposes only, and is not intended as investment advice. The views, opinions and strategies of both the hosts and the guests are their own and should not be considered as guidance from Roofstock. Make sure to always run your own numbers, make your own independent decisions and seek investment advice from licensed professionals.   Michael: What's going on everyone? Welcome to another episode of the remote real estate investor. I'm Michael Albaum and today I'm joined by Aaron Chapman, who's a lender, investor, bearded man and entrepreneur as well as an author and he's going to be talking to us about inflation and using long term debt as your battle ax against it. So let's get into it.   Aaron Chapman, what's going on, man? Thanks for taking the time to come hang out with me. I appreciate it.   Aaron: What's happening brother thanks for the invite. I think I kind of pushed my way in a little bit but I just   Michael: Invite, forced invite.   Aaron: Let's put that way.   Michael: Ya, no happy to happy to and it's been a minute since since we saw each other over think Realty in Tampa. How you bee?   Aaron: Been very good man. Think Realty in Tampa seems like so long ago, because I've been to Tampa two times since then. Miami a couple of times. Literally, I don't get to see very much of anything. But seats 3d of American Airlines is what it seems like.   Michael: And that's pretty close up to the front of that first class?   Aaron: It's always first it's what I've discovered in my career, it used to be you know, you got to you got to hang on to your capital is really kind of dumb to spend money unnecessarily. But then I got to thinking. So like I said first a few times, and I sat next to some amazing people. So it's not about the seat. It's about the person next to you. And more often than not, it's often enough, let's put that I sat next to some people, just some amazing conversations that end up doing business with some people when they didn't want to talk to me. And then it wasn't long, they were talking to me. And then they're giving me pointers, one guy who was like one of the executives over at the Business Journal. And I was finally DC next year, he's telling me all the cool places to go in DC. And now I've seen him pop up online. And I'll check in with him to see what's going on just a really cool guy that I recognized him by couldn't place who he was, until I got in talking. And then I found figured out who he was. So it's just, that's the kind of person that I ended up sitting with. And it's more the conversation than anything.   Michael: What a different way of thinking about things like so many people see the price of the ticket. They're like, Oh, I don't want to pay that or like the experience. But you're you're approaching with a whole different lens. I love it, man.   Aaron: Well, it's kind of how I approach going out for an expensive dinner paying a big tip, things like that. It's like, we know what's happening with the dollar right? It's not doing a whole lot sitting in our bank account. And believe me, I agree with holding on to cash, I believe I agree with investing wisely. But I also agree with taking that capital and putting it someplace where you're building relationships and building up somebody else. And so there's times when somebody does a great job, man throwing $100 tip on a on $100 Dinner is not an uncommon thing in my world. And that's not me beating my chest. It's that person earned it and what's that 100 bucks going to do in my world? My wife will ---- it away on somebody Amazon, right? So it's really not going to, it's not going to enhance our lives that much. But you'd be amazed at what it does to that person. And you walk back in there to that place you think that person forgot you? Well, they definitely don't forget me with the braids.   Michael: I was gonna say yeah, with a look like that. Yeah,   Aaron: Yeah, that's remembered. But then they remember that. And then it's there's this, I talked about the economy of gratitude a lot, and that autonomy kicks in. And they will do more and go above and beyond. Of course, now you're kind of stuck to $100   Michael: That's the minimum, yeah, the bar has been set.   Aaron: So you got to be careful of how often you do go back or when you go back, you'd be amazed at the interaction you have with this person. It's a life changing experience. Because our like our lives are changed by the people that we interact with. And not necessarily what what we what we grow in it or what we amass in it is the relationships that we have.   Michael: I love it. I love it. Let's give people the quick and dirty of who you are and where you come from and what is it you're doing in real estate and then we'll jump into kind of the meat what I wanted to cover today.   Aaron: Very cool. So the quick and dirty is not so quick and but it's kind of dirty. So the interesting thing I was sitting in an event happen to be in Tampa, we were just talking about Tampa. This was years ago and one of the main speakers there talked about the lending industry that being a loan officer and he said the reason people become a loan officers because they can't get a job doing anything else. And it rang really, really true to me because that was my story. You go back to you know, I grew up on a cattle ranch in high school and from there to work in the oil fields in Wyoming drove truck ran heavy equipment, found myself in the mines in northern New Mexico in the late 90s. And they started to shut down the project and so I got laid off and I thought no big deal. I'll find a job easy and I had a wife and kid back in Arizona and I was up in northern New Mexico I go back and forth, went back and I couldn't find a job for nothing. I tried like crazy everything I applied for I got this this statement of being overqualified. I kept getting turned down.   And things were getting dire at that point, I needed to make something happen. And as I left to go apply for a $10 an hour truck driving job to me, it was like the worst thing I could possibly do, but it was gonna put, bring money so I can at least feed my family. My wife as I left gave me a coupon for free diapers. So I drove over to this place, I applied the general manager turned me down again said I was overqualified. So I'm 23 years old, I feel broken, and walking down to my truck up coming from the type one of those job site type trailers go down the stairs. Get on my truck, said a quick prayer. I was really just I was trying to hold back the tears started up my truck and I started pointing myself to this grocery store. Well, as I'm headed to the grocery store, my gas light comes on in my truck. I had never ran that thing long enough to find out how long ago on a gas light. So I quickly found a store that had a groat a gas station on the corner. I pulled up that pump, got my debit card out, I said a quick prayer, prayer, I swiped it and I got declined.   So I rifle through my truck looking for a lost dollar, found a few coins, I closed it lock the door, I started walking that grocery store pocket parking lot. And as I'm looking around, you know, I would find something on the ground look, make sure nobody's looking, reach out quickly pick it up, put in my pocket. This went on for what seemed like a couple hours. And then I got enough change that I thought would give me a couple gallons of gas. Luckily, it was 97 were Yeah, 1997 I think gallon, a gallon, a gallon gas, like 89 cents. So I went and exchanged my change, which was a couple hours of my life for two gallons of gas, went into the grocery store with my coupon, found those diapers hurried up and went to the checkout counter. I don't know if you've ever been this position, but nothing feels worse to, in my opinion, to have one item and your coupon for that one item. Right. And now it was just another just another crappy feeling to the day. So I got my stuff put in the bag, and I'm screaming either as fast as I can. And somebody recognized me.   He called me over and I didn't want to talk to anybody. But he asked me how things were. And I told him what I just told you. He goes, Let's go to dinner. I'm like, Dude, I can't afford dinner. And I hated saying that. He was no, no, no, I got a gift certificate to Red Lobster. I'll take you your wife out. So we went to Red Lobster a couple of nights later. And that's where he told me about the mortgage industry. He explained to me what happened in it? And I'm like, Dude, how can I do this? I know nothing about that. I think there's numbers involved, and I cheated my butt off to get that C in high school. If it wasn't for the fact that could pick a lock, I would not have graduated.   So I went in, I cut a foot off of my hair, I shaved. My mom bought me some business likes clothes, and I wouldn't do an interview. And they started me as a telemarketer in 1997. So that's how I got going. So going from a telemarketer to working actually some of my own leads to building this up and going through the crash and all kinds of stuff. And there's a bunch of stories in there. To now, you know, I was just called by an outfit by modex. And they recognize me I think is the number six guy in the United States. For transactions closed. I was number one guy in Arizona, I didn't even realize that I didn't really pay attention to the statistics, there's 1.6 million people in United States that do what I do. And from what I can tell, I'm ranked number six for how many deals I closed last year. So it's kind of an interesting dynamic to consider that swing.   Michael: Yeah, I'll say, Well, you know, congratulations on how you've come clearly a long way. That's really exciting.   Aaron: Well, thank you. And there is campfire story after a campfire story of of the different things we'll probably talk about this in the series of stuff we talking about the beatings that a person takes to become successful. And you don't what's really interesting is people say, How do you get there? How do you how do you achieve success? Mike, I'll let you know when I do. Because you just don't feel like it all the time. It's a consistent grind. You're always trying to be ahead of the head of everybody else. And once you achieve something, it's way harder to keep it.   Michael: Yeah, I think people think it's like this just flat curve, you know, flat line once you've achieved something, but really, it's very sinusoidal. It's up and down and valleys and troughs. And you're like, man, some days suck. And some days are great, but the like, I think it's about the end destination right? Where you're trying to get to   Aaron: 100%. So I look at it like Everest, right? You get up there. And I don't know, if you've ever really paid attention. Maybe you've climbed the same for all I know, but how long a person sits on top of Everest, it's a matter of minutes, and they're getting back down because that sucker will kill you. You know, and so it's it's just like any other achievement, we get the second you sit back and you relax and put your feet up. It's gonna kill you. You need to keep moving, you got to get down, you got to get to the next Everest. And it can be debilitating to think that we're constantly hunting the next goal. The next goal, the next goal, instead of just finding the happiness, you know, and you our viewers know who Larry Yatch is he says, you know, success is a optimized daily experience consistently achievable, right, something to that effect there are and so and it's sustainable over time. Yeah. I gotta find that optimized daily experience. Here's what I got to do. I don't think I've achieved finding that yet.   Michael: I'm right there with you, man. We're in the hunt together.   Aaron: Yes. And we'll keep hunting and maybe we'll keep communicating about one of these days. You're like, Dude, I found it.   Michael: Yes. let me show you. So, let's shift gears here a little bit and talk about a topic that I think is on everyone's mind. And that's inflation. And you're working in the mortgage industry for a long time, you've seen a lot of ups and downs, sideways lifts, REITs give us a little bit of insight into why is inflation being talked about so much? And what do we as investors need to be cognizant of, and either using it or being abused by it.   Aaron: So inflation is definitely an interesting animal. And it's talked about a lot, everybody is talking about this constantly. And what I point a lot of people to just even understand inflation is go to a place called Shadowstats.com. When you go to shadow stats, you're gonna go to, and I always encourage everybody to get log into it get to pay for the 100 bucks for the year, whatever, you're gonna go over to alternate data, you're gonna scroll down to inflation, you're going to find this chart, and what this chart has, it's going to be going to show you from 19, from the early 1980s, up until now, and it's going to have two different lines, a blue line and a red line. And they're going to be, they're going to be diverging at some point, they're gonna stay together at one point, they're gonna go down to when they show inflation started work its way down, and then they start to kind of break apart. And what you're watching there is the federal funds rate itself, or not the federal funds rate, but the CPI that the Fed tends to track, and it's what they have changed the index to contain. Right?   So you're familiar with the Dow and the NYSC. And the and the NASDAQ, right? s&p, right, the s&p, none of them have the exact same value Correct. They're all different because they have things in them. Well, if you didn't get into, if you look at the the CPI, the Consumer Price Index, they will stack certain things in there that they can manipulate with monetary policy. And that's what they'll go off of. And you can see in this chart, that it's going to show that that that red line is skipping across the bottom right around their 2% Mark quite a bit, and then it spikes up to about eight and a half 9%, which is where we've been at recently. But if you look at the real rate of inflation, which is the shadow statline, it's going to be pushing up closer to 17. Why is that?   Well, because back in the 80s, they took everything into account, what is the person really literally spending money on to on their day to day life, and they're going to track it so they can see how much their life is changing year over year as far as their expenses. But then they wait a minute, it's getting out of hand, because what we do to pass the law for will increase their their benefits or their social security and the retirement benefits to the rate of inflation. Well, we need to keep this to 2%. Right. So we don't want to raise that really, really quick. That's where you start seeing this particular manipulation? Well, if we're looking at 17%, people should really, really, really be concerned about what's happening with their dollar, because what's the dollar value doing with inflation?   Michael: Decreasing.   Aaron: Decreasing, right? It doesn't spend as far. So what I like to do is talk about this in the sense that it's always been that way. And when we're talking about real estate investing, you know, the, in my opinion, where a person does best when it comes to real estate investing is leveraging the property, you know, the way to leverage the properties, get some sort of financing instrument on it, if you're gonna get financing on it, you want to get it for as long as you possibly can. Because at that point, the longer you take a pay, the less you actually pay, because the dollar you're paying it with is worth less and less and less every year.   So I know in today's higher rate environment, we're talking about inflation is pushing interest rates up. And if you look back at the history of inflation, last time, we saw inflation of this, this magnitude, you'll see in some charts that will show the history of inflation, and how it's somewhere right around 20%. But then you can see the history of the interest rates and the interest rates were closer to the same 17-18% for a 30 year fixed. Well, if we're where we are, as far as inflation is concerned, actually inflation was right around this 13 to 15%, where we are today. And then we're talking to interest rates at 19%. Well, the federal funds rate achieved over 20% at that timeframe. We're not there right now. So explain to people is the gap that we have there as a gift.   Right now we're seeing somewhere in the sevens for 30 year fixed interest rates. And that's, you know, we're talking about this in October, the 2022. Do I expect it to get higher that I really do because of all the uncertainty within the market. But if you've locked it in and that interest rate for 30 years, and inflation stays consistently higher than that, you're never even going to pay back what you borrowed. In fact, I have an app to prove that, you know, people want to go to just go to my website, shoot me a message, I'll get you the app. And you can download this thing on your phone. And you can calculate your amortization table and then see what inflation did and how you paid less than what you borrowed over a 30 year window even though you're paying higher interest in what you hoped.   Michael: We have to come back to that point because that's so counterintuitive and the exact opposite of what everyone tells you. When you look at the sum total you paid over a mortgage. But before we get there, I want to ask is it appropriate to look purely at The rate of inflation against interest rates? Or do we also have to take into account just the pure purchase price that we're seeing today? Or is it become irrelevant?   Aaron: I think they're all a factor. Because sometimes when you're let's look back at interest rates go backwards a year, right? Interest rates were in the threes and fours were people buying investment properties. Unbelievable, we'd never actually seen that, and never thought that I would ever see that. But what's happened to the prices of houses, what what you're doing is you're opening up where they were, they say the affordability index had a right how that worked in and more people could afford houses. Well, the more people that could afford houses, the more people bidding on those houses, right, the more of those houses got bid up beyond their real value, price does not equal value in an environment like that people are just willing to pay an enormous amount of money.   Well, because of that, all that affordability, it was so so called built into it because of lower interest rate was getting eroded by the fact that pushing the price so high. So now we're at this really interesting point where the prices are still fairly high compared to, to the, I'd say the real value of real estate because of what people are willing to pay. But our interest rates have increased to not quite to the highest it could and it's really not as high as the national as the average has been since 1971. But it's going to slow that down, I think an equilibrium equilibrium is going to kick in here at some point. And you might see those prices start to decrease a bit. And then of course, it's going to make a little bit more sense. So there's going to be people sitting on the side and waiting and watching. But then again, are they going to increase or decrease that much this begs the other question, were five point I think 5.2 million units short to fulfill the needs of that for housing United States. And then you're we're already short on that. We don't have as many building permits happening. We don't have the supply chain we used to, and now we have how many houses just got wiped out in Florida, you start compounding all this out, man. I'm telling people if you're in a contract, you probably want to stay in that thing. Because if you're backing out of a contract, because you don't like the price, you don't like the rates. Expect, just imagine what you're gonna like and a year from now, I don't think it's gonna get prettier.   Michael: Yeah. Yeah, that's really interesting perspective. Let's come back to what you said before about, when you look at the total amount you've paid. Over time, it actually ends up being less than the original amount you borrowed because of inflation. Walk us through that again,   Aaron: Gladly. And you're probably have to say that a lot to our conversation. Let's go back. You start with a topic. And now I go 100 different ways, because my mind is one, obviously, beautiful mind. There's a dude in here.. just just see it. So you've got. So when you think about our inflation, right, now, let's just take the BS metric that the feds throwing out there eight point, I think we're at 8.63%, if I remember correctly, right. So 8.3%, that means the dollar is losing 8.3% of its value every year. So if you take 8.3%, I'm gonna get my calculator out here on my phone. And we're going to divide that by 12. That means we're losing .691 percent of the value every single month. Is that not alarming .619% of the value every single month. So that's pretty well. So what I have here, and I'm just going to launch my launch my my app here, and anybody can get it is to QJO investment tool, you can go right to the app store and get the QJO investment tool. They may bleep me out here, guys, but it stands for the quit ------- off investment tool, because I think that's all a person does when they're so worried about interest rates.    So if we're doing say, a 20%, down on a $200,000 property, and you're putting, let's say it's a seven half percent interest rate, you're gonna have a payment of a principal and interest of $1,118.74. Not real bad, right? But now you're gonna pay over that period of time on that interest, you're gonna pay $402,747.56, right? 402K. You got a $200,000 house, you put 20% down, that's $160,000 loan. Right? And then you're going to pay $400,000 In principal and interest people like there's no way in hell, I'm going to do that. But when you recalculate, every time you make a payment, that payment is worth what did we say? Point six 9%? Less? So I'll write $6.90 per dollar. Last, is that right? Or is that? No, that's not quite right. It's eight, it'd be eight cents per dollar per year. So it's point 06 cents per mile. Right? Right. But when you per dollar when you recalculate that every time for 360 months, the actual inflation adjusted payment over 360 months is $152,466. That's less than what you borrowed and that's based on 8% inflation, just 8%   Because you think about that the dollar you're borrowing is seven and a half percent. You're paying a Back at an 8% decline, right now it's bigger than it's 8.3 8.4%. In fact, if you want to look at shadow stats, if you look all the way back, when you look how they track it, it's been over 8% since 2012. So in reality, you're never paying back what you borrowed because you're paying less them what they're getting in the form of interest. You're paying, you're literally getting paid to hold their money. And what's really, really cool about this is where it gets awesome. Because of inflation, we get to raise rents, how much are rents going up year over year right now in the United States?   Michael: Like seven to 10%.   Aaron: Last time I saw it was 12. Right? When you average it all out? Dang. Yeah. To a fact,   Michael: I haven't looked for a while. Clearly,   Aaron: Property manager in Kansas City. I had him check it out. They ran their books, they figured they said there was like 14.2, we looked at the last year, Mike, wow, this is crazy. I'm looking at what my kids are paying right there. They're in these apartments, and they're bumping up two to $300 every year. To me, it's kind of immoral. Now I get there's costs go up, taxes go up, upkeep goes up, because you got you got supply chain issues, right? You've got workers, the man ain't fixing anything over there really fast. So it's not like I think that they're, they're hurting themselves. From what I'm hearing, right? They're staying in my house now. And again, because of the darn AC has out for a couple of days.   Those kinds of things. So when you think about that, what's going on in that type of environment, they're raising it like that? Well, let's see what I always tell people, we get to raise rents, even at just 5%. That's every time you raise rents, that's a compound on the previous year's rent, and then you compound it again and compounded again. So as you're compounding the increase in your income, you're compounding the decrease in what the lender makes, because they don't get to raise the payment because of inflation.   So eventually, it may suck for the first 2-3-4 years because of your start rate. And because of all that, and you know, people always like to use cash on cash return is their metric. I think it's a BS metric. Guys, that's not that's not ratio, focus. There's other places to focus, we'll talk about it. But when you start adding that up, and really, really working out the math on it over time, you start killing it at about years 5-6-7 And just compounds huge. Those who don't want to be able to hang for the first three to four years of the ones going to be off on the sidelines. And they're the ones going to say that real estate's not the place to be because of interest rates will they're the they're the the people in the crowd. They're the ones that are the spectators, that people on the field, know where it's supposed to be at and they understand it. And those are the ones going to take opportunity.   Michael: Love it. Aaron, let me ask you this, the Fed has tried to maintain inflation at around two to 3% annually. Right now we're up in that eight plus range. And so we did the math behind if inflation stays there for the duration of the 30 years that you're holding that loan. But if they get things under control, and it drops back down at 3%. I mean, did all of that benefit just get eroded?   Aaron: Well, we also have to look at what they're dropping by 3% They're dropping their index by 3%. And that's dropping the real rate of inflation by India by 3%. So I don't see that as being eroded because you look back at you know, go back to shadow stats, start looking at what they were they calculate real rate of inflation. We've been over 8% Since what since 2012. You have a consistent increase in inflation, it's going consistently up cost of living has not gotten cheaper. Now, I don't know when you were born, but in 19 in the 1980s I could jump on my, it was the late 80s I could jump on my skateboard my mom gave me $1 Literally $1 Bill, I could go down to the corner store, get a gallon of milk, buy some candy for me and bring change to her. how possible is that right now?   Michael: Um no, can't even buy the candy for the dollar right now? No, I just bought a KitKat for a buck. 75 Check it out. That's ridiculous. Dude, it's this dark chocolate and mint. KitKat I'm like such a sucker for dark chocolate. It was amazing. But yeah, Buck 75.   Aaron: Well, it's probably probably an extra 10 cents for the blend, right? But, but again, kefir dollar 75. So that's what I'm saying a gallon of milk and I could get into it. It wasn't like the big jumbo candy bar, nut it was something. And I brought that change. But that was possible in like 1986, I think is when that was okay. It feels like a little while ago, but it shouldn't have changed that much. But it did. So if you look back at that's not a 2% inflation increase. That's common. That's some serious increase, especially the price of milk today. Right. So we started looking at that the Fed has never really kept it under 2% control.   The other thing is, is our inflation today, I don't know if we're really know the full outcome of what's going to happen with what they did with those printed dollars. They have put $8.9 trillion into the markets that they never were in before. If you look at their holdings with respect to mortgage backed securities and treasuries, $8.9 trillion. Then we have they backed off by point zero 2 trillion. And now we have interest rates more than double what happens when they back off by half. Right? So when you start thinking about what they did, and what we're that we're the the amount of money that's in circulation, there's got to be some really massive moves here to get this under control and One of the things that really kind of stands out to me and if you heard this conversation were Powell, the chairman of the Fed was speaking. One of the things he said, I don't remember the exact words. He says one thing we've learned about inflation is we know very little about inflation. That's alarming.   Michael: Yeah, big time.   Aaron: And that was said within the last 45 days, I think 45 to 60 days. So what I am taking by that is inflation. There's this big loaded oil tanker, right, and it's headed towards ground right now. And they didn't get off the throttle early enough with all the stuff they're doing. Now. They're dropping all these anchors, they're hooking up tugboats. They're doing everything think everything they can, but it's too, it's too late. It's going to run aground. And what that happens when it runs aground, I don't know. But it's going to be pretty ugly. And so that's why I tell everybody I'm dealing with, you need to control what you can control for as long as you can control it. And the one thing we can control right now is a 30 year fixed loan. An ARM, Are these things they call, what did they call this thing be all in one loans, it's an adjustable rate, just a single adjustable rate, kind of a credit line? Yeah, great concept. But we have no idea how it's going to react in an environment like this. So for me, it's like whatever you can do to maintain it and keep control of it. And then when you know, we know for a fact that sense right now to close on this 30 year fixed and pay the points and get the rate.   But what I do know is you're not going to pay it back, you're gonna pay less than what you borrowed. When you go with what the bank say, let's go with a five year or seven year, you have to do something with that loan, at some point. What did you just become a new client for the banks, that's what they want. That's what they say in the background, sell the arm because you're insuring your business for the future, the business for who the loan originator, not the person buying houses to rent out and to maintain a business, you are now become somebody's servant, you become a business, somebody else's future, you're a commodity. And I try and tell her but don't become somebody else's commodity control it for as long as you can. Only pull refinances, you can pull the money back out and reinvest into other things. Other than that, let that sucker sit there as long as you can run that out and let somebody else pay the freight.   Michael: Yeah, that makes a ton of sense. Aaron, I know you deal exclusively in residential mortgages. But can you give any insight into why the commercial markets only have 5- 7-10 year options on their mortgages, as opposed to the 30? year fixed? I mean, I have seen a 30 year fixed, but it's not the Colt 45, like it is in the residential space?   Aaron: Yes, you're right. It's it's very, very uncommon. Well, because most your commercial mortgages have to be made up by by investor capital or by banks, right. And so banks are going to take depositor capital, and they're going to create this or they're going to create their own type of security. And they're going to be able to get investors come into most investors don't want to let their money sit for 30 years. Most people don't know that when you're letting your money sit for 30 years in an inflationary environment, you're not getting your money, right, we all expect a certain rate of return on if you do any sort of hard money lending. Or if you've ever done anything to that effect, or fix and flips, you're going to calculate your return on investment annually. And I searched for a 12 plus. Right. And I don't know if you listen to Warren Buffett, Warren Buffett was talking about where, you know, some lady came to him. And, you know, she was trying to figure out how to how to invest her money, and it was a lot of money to her, but not to him. And he said, we have any credit cards? And she goes well, yeah. And he goes, we'll pay that off first. Because why would I do that? I'm not making any money. He goes, What are you paying your interest? 18 20% Because I can't make 18%. So I was I don't know how to do that. So get rid of the debt, you know, then I can show you how to make at least 12 to 13. So that's what we all are wanting is get that 12 13%.   You're not going to make that in a 30 year fixed, you just aren't. So what we've had we've we've created a way to kind of subsidized by the system. And we've got this Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. And what they did was they created the mortgage backed securities, luminary did that for anybody who watched the The Big Short. And if you haven't actually watch it. I know this is a family family show. So don't let the kids in there when you watch it, but it explains the history of the mortgage back series security, where it came from. And now what you have is now a tradable piece of paper that people keep just trading around. That's where its value is. Its value is in its trade ability in its liquid tradability as well as the fact that it the performance of the note people making the payments on time. That's what makes that's a valuable piece of paper, not to sit and hold it for 30 years. It's not valuable at all, you're losing money on that paper.   So that's why I think in the commercial world because they have not had this initiative from the from the government say we need to create housing or we need to create people's businesses, right. They didn't have that initiative. They had the initiative when you create housing, when you give people opportunity to live in a home when you give them the best opportunity and mortgage financing. So they created a 30 year fixed and a 30 year fixed has caught hold and become kind of the gold standard is now the the the Qualified Mortgage, if you will, when you get into anything else. So those where you're not really a qualified loan, you don't have safe harbor from the government or do anything outside of that. So that's about my best guess is you can't get anybody to want to put money up for that long for so cheap and lose it, and just and not make a return is really what it boils down to. They probably just rather own the building.   Michael: Yep. Yeah, that makes sense. That makes sense. Aaron, one final question before you before I let you out of here 15 year fixed versus 30 year fixed, you'll often see a pretty big spread on the interest rate. Does it ever make sense?   Aaron: We're not seeing as big a spread now as we used to. But here's where I look, it used to be a bigger spread. It's not real big right now, if there is a spread at all. So and one, two reasons we're not seeing as big a spread as we used to, we have a lot of uncertainty in the labor market right now. And as a result, that uncertainty lenders like I don't know, if I want to saddle somebody with a bigger payment, when they may have a an issue with their income in the near future. And if they do have an issue with their income, what is their ability to pay this higher payment versus a 30 year fixed, so we're gonna price it in a way that kind of leads them back to good old fashioned 30 year fixed, because our value in our portfolio is them being able to make their payment. So then when you do compare them side by side, even if it's a lower payment, you can use my, you can't use my calculator, I don't have that feature in this, we will in a future iteration, by run the numbers, when you're paying off a 15 year fixed, even at a three eighths of a percent lower interest rate or even a half, I have found you actually pay more in actual dollars. The reason being you're paying those dollars while they're worth more, rather than stretching out over time when they're worth less, because in 15 years, they're going to be worth a hell of a lot less than they are within the first 15 years.   So those who pay that off quick like that, yeah, feels good. You're getting equity in your house and all that kind of stuff. I'm of the mindset pay the 30 year fixed stretch as far as I can take the extra money I would have paid for 15 and reinvested somewhere else. And as a result of being able to do that multiple different properties and compound it that way I'll generate a lot more wealth. Because when you have when you have a home and I tell people if you're gonna buy real estate investments and get those those single families, duplex, triplex, fourplex, you have two jobs, right, you have to pick the right people to work with on the real estate side. And on the lending side to understand what you're trying to do and will guide you not try and lead you to make them money but lead you to make you money, and then pick the right asset to buy the stays reasonably rent it for the entire time you own it, you can raise rents, if you have that, who pays off the mortgage?   Michael: The tenants,   Aaron: the tenant, so if the tenant pays it off, and it's easy to do the math, guys just take 100,000, let's say it's 100? Well, you have to say it's an 80,000, or only about 100,000, our house with 20%, down, you got an $80,000 loan, you divide that up by 30, which is how many years are taken to pay it off, you'll find that it pays off. They're all they're basically giving you $2,666.67 per year, they're giving that to you, right, and that's what you're paying off the mortgage with? Well, you divide that into your investment, which is the money you invested 20,000 plus a 6000 in closing costs as 26,000 your investments grown by 10.25%, every year, do the math, you figure it out yourself. If they're paying it off, you did your job. And that's all you made was done paying off the loan, you made no more cash flow, you put no more out of your pocket, that's 10.25%, predictable, you still have the tax benefits, you still have the appreciation on the home.   So that's before all, all cash flow. So what I tell everybody is let that drag out, it doesn't matter what you do, if you do it on a 15 year note, you're more than likely have to go to your pocket, you're more than likely have to try and maintain that in other ways. And if you're out of a tenant for a month or two, that's really going to hurt your pocket, stretch that thing out. If you really feel like you want to get it paid off 10 years you can all in 15 years, you can always pay a 30 like a 15 You can never pay a 15 like a 30.   Michael: Yeah, it's very I always tell people to there you have the optionality with 30 year and that you don't have the 15. Arron: Options or everything. You know, that's all people want is to be able to make a decision for themselves. But when you pitch and you back yourself in the corner, and you're not allowed to decide for yourself, that's when you're frustrated, that's when you get angry, leave yourself out. It's a good business move to leave yourself out. The other thing of it is going back to the to the arms these other stuff, man, we're going off of hope. And hope is not a good business strategy. You need to go off of what you know and stick with what you know and control for long as you possibly can.   Michael: Love it. And this is an awesome place to put us pause until our next conversation. Until then, where can people find out more about you reach out to you if they have questions or want to reach out to you for your services?   Aaron: Best Places go to AaronChapman.com If you can't find me there because sometimes there are some some browsers don't like it you have to type in Aaron B chapman.com. Just type in Aaron Chapman a Google if you find a bearded redneck lender you found him.   Michael: Right on. Right on. Well, hey, thanks a lot, man for hanging out with me and walking us through this really kind of tumultuous time appreciate you. And we'll definitely be chatting again soon.   Aaron: It was my pleasure brother. And again, thanks for letting me under to poke some holes in in people's heads out there.   Michael: All right, everyone. That was our episode A big thank you to Aaron for coming on and dropping some really interesting Insights for us on where we're headed in the market. As always, if you enjoyed the episode, feel free to leave us a rating or review and we look forward to seeing the next one. Happy investing

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The cost of living always attracts controversy, even before the current surge in prices. Many people believe that the true rate of inflation is consistently far higher than the official stats suggest. But is there any evidence to back up these claims? We discuss the nuances of how inflation is calculated and whether the changes made in the 1980s and 1990s have lowered official inflation numbers, as claimed by websites such as ShadowStats. And what impact does it have on investors? And in today's Dumb Question of the Week: Why does the Fed look at Core PCE inflation rather than CPI? Doesn't it care about food and energy prices? Selected links https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2008/08/art1full.pdf (Misconceptions about the CPI (Bureau of Labor Statistics)) http://www.shadowstats.com/article/no-438-public-comment-on-inflation-measurement (Public comment of inflation measurement (ShadowStats)) http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/2015/04/what-shadowstats-gets-right-and-what-it.html (What ShadowStats gets right and what it gets wrong (Ed Dolan)) Get in touch

The times, they are a changin! Today Jason calls for The Great Transition- not the gender kind, but in the housing market! Listen in to find out more.  He also shares the latest information of the HCI- the Hartman Comparison Index, with new data up to this year's first quarter. So when you compare prices of today's mortgage rates, compare it with rates that are inflation adjusted, according to government inflation rates. And even better, compare it with the rates from Shadowstats.com to see the REAL housing mortgage rates! Jason also continues his talk with Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the NAR, the National Association of Realtors, in which they discuss more about the housing market and its many facets. Watch the Lawrence Yun video HERE.  GIVEAWAY ANNOUNCEMENT! Weekly Amazon gift card giveaway raffle! Comment on one of Jason's YouTube videos and/or leave a review for his Creating Wealth Show Podcast to be entered into a random drawing. Two winners weekly! Comment on this video and leave a review here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast... Giveaway Rules: NO PURCHASE NECESSARY TO ENTER. Must be 18 years or older and a U.S. Resident. Void where prohibited. This promotion is in no way sponsored, endorsed or administered by, sanctioned, or associated with YouTube. Winners announced weekly and have 30 days to claim prize. Key Takeaways: Jason's Editorial 1:13 The Great Transition 2:24 Hot off the press- the new Hartman Comparison Index data 5:39 Mortgage payment versus inflation-adjusted mortgage payment 8:16 Shadowstats.com, measuring inflation- the old way 9:37 A note on mortgage rates 12:36 Join our 3 day WHOLESALE mentoring workshop in Jacksonville, Florida. Go to JasonHartman.com/Wholesale for more information 17:14 HCI: the mortgage payment priced in gold and in oil 22:27 The raffle winners of the $50 Amazon gift card giveaway are Al Parun and LoverBoy302. You have 30 days to claim your prize. Just go to JasonHartman.com/ask 24:16 Get more data at Hartman Comparison Index™ and join us at Jacksonville for the Wholesale mentoring program Lawrence Yun Interview Part 2 25:18 Getting to an even level 25:29 NARs chart on housing starts 27:56 Builders are not building entry level homes 30:29 Are we going to have a housing shortage for many, many years to come? 32:52 Boom in the home improvement industry 34:18 Possible inventory adjustment due to recent events 36:50 Job and housing market correlation 38:55 Multiple bids on rental units among renters 39:48 Do you see large investment companies continuing to buy more properties over the coming years? 42:13 There is a labor shortage across America 43:17 Increasing number of realtors 45:37 Increased home sales, increased prices but not increased ownership   Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else  http://JasonHartman.com/Fund Free Report on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com Jason's TV Clips: https://vimeo.com/549444172  Free Class: CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect  Special Offer from Ron LeGrand:  https://JasonHartman.com/Ron What do Jason's clients say?  http://JasonHartmanTestimonials.com Contact our Investment Counselors at: www.JasonHartman.com  Watch, subscribe and comment on Jason's videos on his official YouTube channel: YouTube.com/c/JasonHartmanRealEstate/videos Free white paper on the Hartman Comparison Index™  Guided Visualization for Investors: JasonHartman.com/visualization Jason's videos in his other sites: JasonHartman.com/Rumble JasonHartman.com/Bitchute JasonHartman.com/Odysee    

Tom welcomes new guest Michael Snyder from The Economic Collapse Blog. Michael discusses how people assume war with Russia can't happen because of Mutual Assured Destruction. We do need to think about the risks of conflict escalating and Russia has modernized its strategic arsenal while the United States largely has not. The Russians have also developed anti-ballistic missile systems which are quite advanced. As a result, we are quite unprepared for such a conflict. Meanwhile the U.S. military is mostly focused on implementing woke policies. When the cold war ended we declared ourselves the victors and focused on other parts of our military. 9/11 brought spending on anti-terrorism in Afghanistan and Iraq which became large money pits. The military today is increasingly underperforming which we witnessed when the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan. U.S. foreign policy has been isolating various countries like Russia, China, and India. This is resulting in these countries coming closer together. Most do not want this war and if we're not careful it could escalate. Countries are likely to take advantage of the United States because Biden is perceived as weak. This is a window of opportunity for other nations. A diplomatic solution that would have kept Russia out of Ukraine was entirely possible but the Biden administration took a hard-line approach. The current method of calculating inflation has been changed multiple times to make it look lower. The actual numbers (ShadowStats.com) are over fifteen percent if it was calculated like it was in the 80s. We've been spending trillions that we don't have and thus diluting the money supply at an ever-increasing pace. Now with the problems in Europe, we're going to have further supply problems and therefore inflation is going to worsen to the next level. We're seeing the energy problems coming out of Europe in part due to their reliance on unreliable green energy solutions. Food supplies are going to get increasingly tight since much of the wheat for Europe comes from Ukraine and Russia. Many farmers are going to be unable to purchase fertilizer due to the costs. Time Stamp References0:00 - Introduction1:05 - War, M.A.D. and Risk8:03 - U.S. Military Spending11:44 - Russia and China17:33 - Signs and Concerns24:09 - Catastrophic Inflation32:34 - Food and Fertilizer36:54 - Civil Unrest Coming?39:40 - Meat & Bird Flu42:37 - Unimaginable Debt45:17 - Dollar Disaster46:39 - Supply Chain Outlook50:20 - Prepping for Problems53:16 - Gold and Silver54:52 - Concluding Thoughts Talking Points From This Episode Risks of a greater conflict with Russia and the west's lack of preparedness.The major problems with U.S. foreign policies.Looming problems with food supplies and fertilizer affordability.Importance of having some preparations. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/Revelation1217Website: https://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/ Michael Snyder has an undergraduate degree in Commerce from the University of Virginia, a law degree from the University of Florida law school, and an LLM from the University of Florida law school. He worked as an attorney in Washington D.C. for several years, but became increasingly frustrated that I was having no impact on the world around me. Fortunately, God took him and his wife out of there and brought them to a very quiet location in the middle of nowhere. From the middle of nowhere, they have touched millions of lives all over the planet through the Internet.

"Most people buy a house based on a PAYMENT, not the price." And looking at the Hartman Comparison Index™ (HCI) the mortgage rates, when adjusted for inflation, are actually low, according to ShadowStats! To view the HCI chart, you can also catch the video on Jason's YouTube and/or Facebook or LinkedIn channels. Moreover, Jason invites you to join the Jason Hartman University (JHU) Live, virtual event on April 1 & 2, 2022 where you will learn to read a PRO FORMA, network with other investors, learn insider secrets to being a better investor and so much more!  And finally, Jason welcomes Real Estate legend Ron LeGrand and talks about why he'll never rent a house unless it's a lease purchase! Ron gives great advice for business, as well as techniques and philosophies for real estate investing. Ron has been an entrepreneur since the age of eighteen. In 1982, Ron entered the real estate business, innovating the industry by creating systems to buy and sell houses without risk. Today, Ron and his company, Global Publishing Inc., mentor others on the real estate business, and Ron speaks around the world on the topic. To learn more about Ron's ingenious and creative way of real estate investing, sign up for his webinar today at JasonHartman.com/Ron Mentions: ShadowStats.com The Less I Do, the More I Make: Automate Or Die: How to Get More Done in Less Time and Take Your Life Back by Ron LeGrand Key Takeaways: Jason's editorial 2:19 Join the Jason Hartman University (JHU) Live Virtual event 6:31 Hartman Comparison Index (HCI) Mortgage payment chart from 1970 to 2021. Download the free white paper at Hartman Comparison Index™  12:42 Register Now for the JHU Live Virtual Event HERE! Ron LeGrand's Interview 13:19 Welcome Ron LeGrand 13:47 The importance of a mastermind group 14:38 Focus: less is more 16:50 How Ron LeGrand started in RE 20:28 Putting tenant buyers in your property 24:29  Lease purchase a home 26:45 No need to qualify for a loan 27:41 Tenant buyers have skin in the game 30:05 Self manage your properties 33:38 Seller carry back? 36:56 Marketing these tenant-buyer properties 38:13 Join Ron's webinar at JasonHartman.com/Ron 39:08 Final words of wisdom   The WEALTH TRANSFER is happening FAST! Protect your financial future now! Did you know that 25% to 40% of all dollars ever created were dumped into the economy last year???  This will be devastating to some and an opportunity to others, be sure you're on the right side of this massive wealth transfer. Learn from our experiences, maximize your ROI and avoid regrets. Watch, subscribe and comment on Jason's videos on his official YouTube channel: YouTube.com/c/JasonHartmanRealEstate/videos Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: PandemicInvesting.com Jason's TV Clips: Vimeo.com/549444172  CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: JasonHartman.com/Protect What do Jason's clients say?: JasonHartmanTestimonials.com Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else:  JasonHartman.com/Fund Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit JasonHartman.com Free white paper on the Hartman Comparison Index™  Guided Visualization for Investors: JasonHartman.com/visualization Jason's videos in his other sites: JasonHartman.com/Rumble JasonHartman.com/Bitchute JasonHartman.com/Odysee          

The Mises Institute's Jeff Deist and John Williams of ShadowStats.com discuss the real numbers behind the inflation, why oil is so volatile, the value of holding gold, and more. Also in the show, Pedro Gonzalez of Chronicles Magazine calls in to talk about the resurgence of neocons and the spreading of misinformation amidst the current conflict in Ukraine. Follow Pedro Gonzalez on Twitter. Visit A Neighbor's Choice website at aneighborschoice.com

The Mises Institute's Jeff Deist starts the show by talking about the media pivot from the pandemic to war. He is joined by Jonathan Newman to discuss the economics of sanctions, whether sanctions against private Russian firms are justified, economic blowbacks towards ordinary Americans, Russia's exclusion from SWIFT, why cryptocurrency threatens the dollar, and more. Also in the show, John Williams of ShadowStats.com calls in to talk about real numbers and inflation. Follow Jonathan Newman on Twitter. Visit A Neighbor's Choice website at aneighborschoice.com

Discover why inflation is running 7% higher than what is being reported. When using the same methodology to calculate inflation, the inflation rates are much higher than we are being told. The actual CPI (Consumer Price Index) is running over 15%, a rate we haven't seen since 1947. Statistics are calculated apples-to-apples by John Williams of Shadowstats.com. My new book is here! These bonuses are available when you buy my newly released book, 3 Steps to Quantum Wealth: The Wealth Heiress' Guide to Financial Freedom by Investing in Cryptocurrencies on Amazon, here.  As a thank you for buying the book on Amazon, you will receive a: Set of 4 Wealthy Mindset Blueprint audio recordings to help you create a wealthy mindset ($197 value) Webinar with Linda called “Financial Freedom by Investing in Cryptocurrencies” ($1,500 value) On the webinar you will learn: -The wealth building potential of the 8 cryptocurrencies mentioned in the book -Why they will experience exponential growth -Strategies for accumulation We will run the book review contest one more time!   If you leave a book review on Amazon, you also will be entered into a drawing to win one of the following: An autographed copy of the book (25 people will win) $100 of XRP Cryptocurrency ($100 value) A 30-minute Wealth Mentoring session with Linda ($500 value) A lifetime membership in the Be Wealthy & Smart VIP Experience ($3,998 value) so you can invest alongside Linda and receive her investment updates and recommendations (for new members only) Winners will be announced on the podcast March 7th.  The link to the book bonus page is here.  Are you investing well for financial freedom...or not? Financial freedom is a combination of money, compounding and time (my McT Formula). How well you invest, makes a huge difference to your financial future and lifestyle. If you only knew where to invest for the long-term, what a difference it would make, because the difference between investing $100k and earning 2% or 10% on your money over 30 years, is the difference between it growing to $181,136 or $1,744,940, an increase of over $1.5 million dollars. Your compounding rate, and how well you invest, matters!  INTERESTED IN THE BE WEALTHY & SMART VIP EXPERIENCE? -Asset allocation model with ticker symbols and % to invest -Monthly investing webinars with Linda -Private Facebook group with daily insights -Weekly stock market commentary email -Lifetime access -US and foreign investors, no minimum $ amount required Extending the special offer, enjoy a 50% savings on the VIP Experience by using promo code "SAVE50" at checkout. More information is here or have a complimentary consultation with Linda to answer your questions. For an appointment to talk, click here. PLEASE REVIEW THE SHOW ON ITUNES If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe and leave a review. I love hearing from you! I so appreciate it! SUBSCRIBE TO BE WEALTHY & SMART Click Here to Subscribe Via iTunes Click Here to Subscribe Via Stitcher on an Android Device Click Here to Subscribe Via RSS Feed WEALTH HEIRESS TV Please subscribe to Wealth Heiress TV YouTube channel (it's not just for women, it's for men too!), here. PLEASE LEAVE A BOOK REVIEW Leave a book review on Amazon here. Get my book, “You're Already a Wealth Heiress, Now Think and Act Like One: 6 Practical Steps to Make It a Reality Now!” Men love it too! After all, you are Wealth Heirs. :) Available for purchase on Amazon. International buyers (if you live outside of the US) get my book here. WANT MORE FROM LINDA? Check out her programs. Join her on Instagram. WEALTH LIBRARY OF PODCASTS Listen to the full wealth library of podcasts from the beginning. Use the search bar in the upper right corner of the page to search topics. TODAY'S SPONSOR Get Think and Grow Rich or another book on Amazon from my recommended financial books list, and be sure to get started checking off the books you have read. Be Wealthy & Smart, is a personal finance show with self-made millionaire Linda P. Jones, America's Wealth Mentor™. Learn simple steps that make a big difference to your financial freedom.  (Some links are affiliate links. There is no additional cost to you.)

Ninja examines the latest CPI numbers and brings in John Williams' ShadowStats.com website for a reality check. Subscribe to #NinjaNation: https://economicninja.org

After a long delay, I'm BAAAAAAACK, with your favorite retirement planning podcast. Today we're talking about the insane discrepancy between CPI-reported rent increase and REAL rent increases. We're also talking about the politicization of economic indicators and how young progressives are downplaying the inflation crisis as a problem only for 'rich people.' Here's that article trying to debunk Shadowstats: https://fullstackeconomics.com/no-the-real-inflation-rate-isnt-14-percent/ (https://fullstackeconomics.com/no-the-real-inflation-rate-isnt-14-percent/) We also briefly touch on the gender gap in retirement savings. Spoiler: It's real. And finally, you can get $50 for FREE just by signing up for OKCoin and depositing $100. That's a FIFTY PERCENT RETURN ON INVESTMENT. Just go to www.rogueretirementlounge.com/coin and we'll both get fifty bucks. It's a WIN WIN! You'll be supporting the show and you'll get free money. Remember, go to http://www.rogueretirementlounge.com/crypto (www.rogueretirementlounge.com/crypto) to sign up for your own Blockfi account. You'll get up to a $250 crypto bonus and you'll be on the best exchange out there. AND you'll be able to earn interest on your crypto. And, you'll be supporting this show, as I'm a Blockfi affiliate! If you have a question you'd like me to answer on the podcast, email me at matt@rogueretirementlounge.com Check out more episodes at my https://www.rogueretirementlounge.com/ (retirement planning podcast) website: https://www.rogueretirementlounge.com/ (https://www.rogueretirementlounge.com/) Follow me on twitter! https://twitter.com/LoungeRogue (https://twitter.com/LoungeRogue) Follow me on Instagram! https://www.instagram.com/lairdgrainger/ (https://www.instagram.com/lairdgrainger/)

Want a free CRE loan quote? https://quote.peakfinancing.com/quote-request Conservative Passive Real Estate Investing in an Unpredictable Market with Jeremy Roll Jeremy Roll started investing in real estate and businesses in 2002 and left the corporate world in 2007 to become a full-time passive cash flow investor. He is currently an investor in more than 60 opportunities across more than $1 Billion worth of real estate and business assets. As Founder and President of Roll Investment Group, Jeremy manages a group of over 1,500 investors who seek passive/managed cash flowing investments in real estate and businesses. Jeremy is also the co-Founder of For Investors By Investors (FIBI), a non-profit organization that was launched in 2007 with the goal of facilitating networking and learning among real estate investors in a strict no sales pitch environment. FIBI is now the largest group of public real estate investor meetings in California with over 30,000 members. Jeremy has an MBA from The Wharton School, is a licensed California Real Estate Broker (for investing purposes only), and is an Advisor for Realty Mogul, the largest real estate crowdfunding website in the US. Jeremy welcomes e-mails (jroll@rollinvestments.com) to network with or help other investors and to discuss real estate or business investments of any size. Today, Jeremy will share his strategies for conservative passive real estate investing in an unpredictable market! Anton and Jeremy will discuss: Predictable cash flow Look at other markets generating better cash on cash returns Investing in various alternative assets Set cash flow target depending on where the cycle is at Unique opportunities such as tax-credit/tax abatement deals Unpredictability of where the cycle turns Hospitality challenges Major concern: Low GDP growth due to debt overhang Shadowstats.com - Excellent site that discusses real vs. published inflation Anton Mattli CEO of PEAK Financing anton@peakfinancing.com https://peakfinancing.com/ Jeremy Roll Founder and President of Roll Investment Group Co-Founder of For Investors By Investors (FIBI) Advisor for Realty Mogul jroll@rollinvestments.com Peak Financing Facebook Page - Like to receive episode updates and more! Peak Financing YouTube Channel - Subscribe to receive episode updates and recently featured! Peak Financing Official Website - Peak Market Watch Episodes Follow PEAK Financing FB: https://www.facebook.com/peakfinancing/ Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/peak_financing LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/peak-financing/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/peakfinancing/

How can hyperinflation be spotted and is it really about to reach Western economies like the USA?

Are governments and central banks reporting accurate inflation numbers? Why are the inflation numbers not reflecting reality? What inflation calculation methods are more reliable?

This week, Steve meets with economist John Williams! While Dan G did not join today's interview, he was out to get his realtor license, which will be of great use to himself and Steve if there is housing market crash. John shares a lot of in-depth information about economic statistics, that he regularly documents on his website. To find out more about John's thoughts, go to Shadowstats! For Miles Franklin precious metal investments, click here!

An in-depth, historical look at how and why government statistics have changed over time.Starting this week the Speaking of Bitcoin show joins the CoinDesk Podcast NetworkThis time on Speaking of Bitcoin, the hosts are joined by John Williams, rogue economist and long-time Editor of ShadowStats.com, a data source that tracks everything from inflation to GDP, money supply to unemployment using the original government defined methodologies. Over time, the government has changed how they measure all of these things and Johns work reveals that these changes all result in better looking statistics from the same, often terrifying numbers.In this wide ranging conversation we talk about how and why this happened, plus what we can do about it. If this is a new topic to you, expect to come away with a different perspective in this epic episode.Today's show featured John Williams, Stephanie Murphy, Jonathan Mohan and Adam B. Levine. This episode was edited by Jonas, with music by Jared Rubens and Gurty Beats.Our album art is a composite work by Adam B. Levine using the current inflation chart from ShadowStats.com along with an excellent imposter-dog image from Brayden Anderson on Unsplash.Have any questions or comments? Send me an email at adam@speakingof.bitcoinshow

This time on Speaking of Bitcoin, the hosts are joined by John Williams, rogue economist and long-time Editor of ShadowStats.com, a data source that tracks everything from inflation to GDP, money supply to unemployment using the original government defined methodologies. Over time, the government has changed how they measure all of these things and Johns work reveals that these changes all result in better looking statistics from the same, often terrifying numbers. In this wide ranging conversation we talk about how and why this happened, plus what we can do about it. If this is a new topic to you, expect to come away with a different perspective in this epic episode. Today's show featured John Williams (shadowstats.com), Stephanie Murphy, Jonathan Mohan and Adam B. Levine. This episode was edited by Jonas, with music by Jared Rubens and Gurty Beats. Our album art is a composite work by Adam B. Levine using the current inflation chart from ShadowStats.com along with an excellent imposter-dog image from Brayden Anderson on Unsplash. Have any questions or comments? Send me an email at adam@speakingof.bitcoin.show --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/originalltb/message

Aaron is a real estate investor, a veteran of the finance industry, and highly skilled in financing for the real estate investor aiding in the analysis and structure of multiple financed properties. He is an expert in Self Employment income/ Credit Analysis and owner-occupied Financing. He has closed nearly 1,000 transactions every year, been in the finance industry for 23 years now. He is presently ranked #14 in an industry of over 300,000 licensed loan originators for transactions closed annually (723 closed units for real estate investors in 2019, 707 in 2018, and 676 in 2017). In addition to a career in real estate finance, Aaron is a Published Author with 4 books released and dozens of magazine articles.  KEY POINTS Understanding the deal as the debt, and the debt as the asset in real estate Calculating Real Estate Cash Flow Learning about Compound Interest associated with Finance How inflation impacts investors The purchasing power of $100 in the past 3 decades Determining your Debt-to-Income ratio Tips for getting your next real estate loan The Basics of Real Estate Tax Depreciation   LIGHTNING QUESTIONS 1. What was your biggest hurdle getting started in real estate investing, and how did you overcome it? Looking like 17 at the age of 23 and people saw him face to face at a hard time. He overcame it by growing a beard. 2. Do you have a personal habit that contributes to your success? Get up every morning at 4:30 or earlier, and start reading scriptures, and other books that help him to focus his mind and energy towards his goals. 3. Do you have an online resource that you find valuable? http://www.shadowstats.com/ (ShadowStats) 4. What book would you recommend to the listeners and why? https://www.amazon.com/Outwitting-Devil-Secret-Freedom-Success/dp/1469259036 (Outwitting the Devil) book by Napoleon Hill https://www.amazon.com/Stihl-Runnin-QJO-Initiative-Book/dp/1734119489 (The QJO Initiative) book by Aaron Chapman 5. If you were to give advice to your 20-year-old self to get started in real estate investing, what would it be? Enjoy where you are right now.  RESOURCES Visithttp://m/gp/product/B00NB86OYE/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=jacob0ee-20&camp=1789&creative=9325&linkCode=as2&creativeASIN=B00NB86OYE&linkId=100a9d2905599266aa7088bba0a33d55 ( Audible) for a free trial and free audiobook download!  https://www.aaronbchapman.com/ (AaronBChapman.com) https://www.facebook.com/Aaron-Chapman-SecurityNational-Mortgage-Company-263613934478978/?modal=admin_todo_tour (Facebook) https://www.instagram.com/aaronchapmannjo/ (Instagram) https://www.linkedin.com/in/aaronbchapman/ (LinkedIn) http://www.shadowstats.com/ (ShadowStats) https://www.amazon.com/Master-Key-System-Charles-Haanel/dp/1604502754 (The Master Key System) book by Charles F. Hannel

Welcome to Finance and Fury, the Furious Friday edition. Today is more a Say What Wednesday episode, I need to catch up on some of your questions and this one fits in nicely. This is a question I got from Ross about rethinking monetary policy. “Am currently reading Stephanie Kelton’s book the deficit myth. As she is a proponent of MMT Explaining her perception of debt inflation. And the role of government in the way money is distributed in the economy. As well as the way taxes are used to incentives behaviour rather than just a means for revenue. She makes a point that when nearing low unemployment, wages should rise and then consequentially so should inflation. She argues that the feds decision of how much slack should be allowed in the economy is often misguided, and basically says that monetary economist demand that unemployment is necessary. Which leaves a winners and loses overview of the overall economy. So to ensure we don’t pay too much for anything people have to be unemployed. How can this be morally justified and is the opportunity as she argues to reach full employment while having our parliament along with the federal reserve better utilise issued currency and taxation schemes to manage the rate of inflation so that people aren’t left behind? As we have seen in the US unemployment was like 4% yet inflation remained low. How do you explain this phenomenon and is it perhaps time to rethink monetary policy around the developed world?” This is a great question – lots to run through Role of Governments in the economy – and role of CBs The theory of unemployment and if it is necessary or not – and who the winners and losers are I am familiar with Stephine’s work – havent read this book but started seeing her name pop up in researching MMT also following politics – Bernie sanders economic advisor  At the core of this concept – Theoretical framework in political economy – called public choice – The founder James Buchanan – think about politics without romance – this means looking at the actual effects of a policy as opposed of idealistically assuming that we will end up with the kind of perfect outcomes promised – as they only exist in people’s imaginations No policy is perfect – system is complex – due to it being complex there is no algorithm or model to predict what will happen outside of the potential of a first-order effect – Basics flaw of any policy decision making Michael Munger – calls this unicorn Governance – its not enough to judge a policy or a theory by its intentions – or by what you hope will be the end result – you might get what you want initially – but could have bad long term effects – Concept of Second-Order Effects – actions have an intended consequence (outcome) - each consequence has another consequence, and so on. Thing that is forgotten about in Governments – As the second or third consequences only appear once they leave office dominoes—1000 lined up, one tap causes a chain of events to occur - Once it starts - difficult (if not impossible) to them all falling down For instance, the view of taxes are used to incentivise behaviour rather than just a means for revenue has been proven to be ineffective. For example, when they are used to influence behaviours (like tax incentives for “going green”) and reduce the incentives for others (e.g., taxes on tobacco and alcohol), the end result in most cases has created a taxes on the poor. Make prices high on those goods – which are disproportionately spent on by those in lower income brackets – Similar to the alcopop tax – did it reduce peoples drinking? No people just bought a whole bottle of vodka In addition, the notion of taxes being used to help curb inflation is a method of indirect pricing controls – has second-order effects Example of price capping – Cap Electricity Prices – outcome is flat prices (whatever regulators decide) First Order – Electricity suppliers set their prices to the cap price Second Order – Electricity supplies (companies) revenues may decrease – Especially over time with increase in their costs – (wages, transport costs, inputs into electricity like coal) Third Order –- The share values start to decline as investors flee for fear of limited future potential returns Fourth Order - Profits begin to fall for the energy supplies costs go up but prices are capped Fifth Order – Share values begin to plummet – reducing the capital the company can raise – reducing ‘Capital Expenditure’ CAPEX – What companies spend on large projects to grow the company – Energy company – Origins Gladstone pipeline – billions of dollars spent on upgrading for energy needs – Gas – a lot cleaner than Coal Sixth Order – Companies begin to have to let employees off, reduce maintenance on the infrastructure, and so on. Sounds a bit far-fetched – but it happened in California in the 90s – in RSA - happens across all things Rent control in NYC – After WW2 - provide returning veterans with affordable housing - so city’s housing commission capped rent prices (with no increases) in certain areas of the city law - rent control couldn’t be removed form an apartment unless the original tenant moved or the building was condemned Noble but the cost to maintain properties continued to rise - landlords couldn’t raise rent prices to compensate for their increased costs. landlords refused to upkeep the property—it was a waste of money -Financially – better to let the building deteriorate around the remaining tenants over time there was a decline in the quality of property and eventually supply, as buildings were condemned making housing even more expensive — the opposite of the original intent The more complex a system is – the greater the number of Second-Order Effects Consequences can be interrelated or dependent upon each other in millions of different ways Uncertainty guarantees that nobody knows exactly how exactly – not at the first consequence, or at the 20th. Every action has a consequence, and those always have their own consequences – even if you don’t know they will That is what is so dangerous with Government Policy – Especially those granting Positive Rights, not protecting Negative Rights Approach making changes to a complex system with extreme caution: what you get may very well be the opposite of what you expect.   The issue is that at the core of all of this, MMT is assuming that Governments are now more responsible for the economy In my personal views, they haven't been able to manage their own departments or budgets well due to no market feedbacks along with a lag in decision making. Track record - Any time governments take further control of the economy – increased regulations - slow decline has been witnessed – extreme examples – Socialism – Complete control – unicorn governance – did it end up better for the people long term? under MMT – not truly socialism – as they don’t take over the companies that produce- but at the top level they take over the very cost of money and control of price gains – take over the disbursement and allocation of money The question – will these policy decisions lead to a better outcome? It assumed that economists and politicians have better foresight and have better intentions than the individual Went through recently the fact that every one of the Feds board members are multimillionaires based on their asset holdings Do they know what is best for the average person? Or what will make their own portfolios and asset values go up further? Policy responses in relation to a statistic are not a good way to approach this – Especially when the measurements can be flawed - Gov inflation stats or unemployment stats shouldn’t be taken at face value – or policy shouldn’t be built around these – but it is – Inflation – CPI measurements - general level of price growth – First- it ignored economic innovation and assumed that future demand does not vary from the historic Secondly – it is rife with statistical manipulation - such as import substitution of goods even though it is meant to measure the statistical concept of indexing domestic consumer prices In western nations that are heavy on importing cheaper goods overseas – gives the appearance on costs going down – Also – doesn’t actually take into account the real price increase but the increase assuming no difference in products – called Hedonics -the science of trying to work out how much product quality has changed and adjusting inflation to take account of the fact more expensive products are not just inflation - but due to improved quality Example - original iPhone versus the ones now- it would discount the cameras and additional features as those as product improvements and reduce the cost to match the base rate cost – even though people are paying more Looking at alternatives – non-governmental statistics that measure price growth – Chapwood index comprised of 500 constant items -shows an approximate 10% annual rate of price inflation – also Shadowstats gets a similar 10% approximation Therefore - policy of targeting a general level of prices through broad-based indices such as the CPI has issues in what these stats actually represent – making policy even less efficient Unemployment - To be included in the unemployment statistics, you have to have had looked for work and were available to work in the reference week, or were waiting to start a new job. unemployment theory in general works off the basic assumption that these segments of people are firstly, willing to work in any role (which a lot of people aren't), but it also doesn’t account for the fact that in the statistics there are transitional workers included – if someone is taking a months break before starting their next job = unemployed It can take time to find the right job that people want – so can take a few months before one comes up Beyond the statistical measurement – which is conducted by a survey - When it comes to this theory of unemployment, monetary policy does look at the "sweet spot" for unemployment. The theory of this is that the labour market will reach a point where each additional job added does not create enough productivity to cover its cost, making every successive job after that point inefficient and detractors to any business (or Government) that hires them Would a business hire someone for $60,000 if it may only help their productivity by $30,000? No Well – why don’t they hire them for $30k? well they might be allowed to due to award agreements and minimum wages – Looking at the morality - The morality of these sorts of proposals focus on one side, the equality of the economy and think of it as an aggregate – these stats and theories don’t take individual choices or freedoms into account Could be argued that it is not moral for the Gov to say that Businesses have to pay $25 per hour for labour As what if someone wants and job and would be willing to get paid $20 p.h. – but the business cant afford $25 p.h. – so that individual doesn’t get that job and has to keep looking There is also the wage inflation theory that comes from an increasing demand through low unemployment - Ross – point in the book – need to have unemployed to ensure we don’t pay too much for anything – and so wages don’t rise Going back to the Statistics – a number like 5% assumes that these people are the always unemployed Not the same people month to month though - When looking further into the 'long term unemployed' (i.e. individuals who have been looking for work for longer than 52 weeks), this represents around 15%-25% of those who are unemployed – so if unemployment is 5% - then 1% long term unemployed – so are we experiencing inflation – cause 1% as long term unemployment is pretty low – but these are people who can’t find work Why might they not be able to find work? But also, why don’t we see inflation or wage rises? – These jobs no longer exist in Australia and goods are imported from overseas from cheaper labour countries – Could it be that unemployed people are a by-product of the costs of production being too high? Government regulations – minimum wages and award wages – puts companies in a tricky spot – small and medium businesses can’t offshore – but large companies can – and reduce their taxes – so it creates an unfair playing field But through globalisation policies and free trade – this has created the trade of labour – sending work overseas – holden plant – based around costs of labour and regulations – had to be subsidised – in the end failed and all those jobs gone – is it moral that all those jobs were lost? Has there been much real wage growth in a lot of sectors beyond what is forced by legislation – again – stats are misleading as it doesn’t take into account individuals in same role for life – but the average of population Assume that it is 3.5% p.a. but has been going down over the past 30-40 years – whilst goods have been offshored – factor particularly relevant in the US as to why wages may not rise, is due to the mobility of labour. For wages to rise, an economy needs to be isolated but with free trade, or mobility in labour – which a lot of the models account for- however with free trade of mobility in labour - the wages tend to average out across nations as well – if you have 1m legal immigrants coming into a country – who are willing to work for less – downwards pressure on wages Only way to get rid of unemployment fully is to force people to work in roles provided to them by the government – nobody can leave or go to another job – as those seeking other jobs are counted as unemployed Finally - Claims that Governments can use taxation schemes to manage the rate of inflation so that people aren’t left behind? And that US unemployment was 4% but saw no inflation rise - Theory of inflation as well – if people have higher wages and spend this – should also lead to inflation One of the reasons for inflation staying low, even with low unemployment can come down to a number of factors. Firstly, inflation can take 18 months in general to materialise along with the issues in measurements of inflation. Participation rate – 5% - down to 1% due to 4% no longer looking The supply of a lot of consumer goods, such as electronics, clothes, etc. through online discounters has reduced the prices of this component. Hence, there is a natural downwards pressure on inflation. In addition, these theories don't take into account the use of peoples surplus cashflow, such as repayment of debt (or saving) instead of spending, which also has a deflationary effect. Lets say there is inflation that materialises – how would the Gov reduce inflation through taxation? Take more money away from people to spend – so there is less in circulation and reduces the multiplier effect   Could go on for days about this – but my question to a lot of these theories is, does monetary policy (i.e. the interest rates) really either create or destroy jobs? Are Governments responsible for hiring people to fulfil roles – as that money has to come from those working outside of the government to cover – For me in my business, and for my clients and people I talk to who own businesses, it is government regulations that are the inhibiting factor for employment growth. The barries to entry that governments enforce on companies and the additional costs and regulations that come with this, reduce employment opportunities within the small to medium business sector. Removing disincentives such as payroll tax may help – where companies have to pay taxes based on wages – Say company paying $2m in wages – in QLD would have to pay around $55k in tax to Gov for that – if larger company paying $20m in wages – that is $950k in tax – 4.75% - that could hire more than 10 people I definitely think that it is time to rethink monetary policy, but probably not in the direction of MMT. In my views, MMT involves too much control over the economy which is part of the structural issues that the current system faces. This comes back to second-order effects in theory compared to in practice, as with any once forced change in a variable in a complex system, down the road some unimaged outcome is always present – MMT sounds like unicorn Governance – appeals to emotion – in reality – could get 0% unemployment Mao style In my view – the rethink needs to be less and not more – The reasons why we are in this situation is that CBs and Govs already have a lot of control – So they are magically going to solve the economy with more control? But you never see any mainstream Government economist or policy maker argue that they need less control – as that puts them out of the job – self interest rules the day I don’t have a perfect solution for this – but options in a future Furious Friday episode – we can look at some alternatives that have shown practical results Thank you for listening to today's episode. If you want to get in contact you can do so here: http://financeandfury.com.au/contact/

Paradise Lose Financial Podcast - Episode 2: Financial Engineering [Links to follow] How both public and privately-held entities use non-GAAP financial measures to justify wasteful or unprofitable practices. Inflation is much worse than is officially reported: BLS Inflation at -0.1%: Official CPI calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics says it stands at -0.1% as of May 2020: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ ShadowStats Economic Measures John Williams' ShadowStats alternate calculation based off the way inflation was measured in the 80's puts inflation at closer to 8% currently: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts The Chapwood Inflation Index Calculates inflation in the 50 largest cities in the US, in which cities such as San Jose have inflation measuring at 13% - remember this is per year so over time this trend significantly stunts your purchasing power: https://chapwoodindex.com/ Non-GAAP Measures Financial figures that are unaudited and do not comply with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles): https://www.lutz.us/non-gaap-measures/ EBITDA = Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, & Amortization Measures such as EBITDA are more "flexible" than GAAP measures such as Net Income. Companies that switch to using EBITDA as a financial measure when they have not done so previously should present a potential red flag for investors and the public: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/ebitda.asp Real vs. Nominal GDP and how GDP uses a "GDP Deflator" instead of CPI to account for inflation https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/ap-macroeconomics/economic-iondicators-and-the-business-cycle/real-vs-nominal-gdp/a/lesson-summary-real-vs-nominal-gdp Inflation as Calculated by TPTB for GDP: GDP (Gross Domestic Product): https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gdp.asp GDP Deflator: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gdppricedeflator.asp Intro song by my childhood friend whose music project is titled "Maine Experiment": https://soundcloud.com/maineexperiment Please consider becoming a patron to access more in-depth analyses & material focused on financial tools, macroeconomics and financial strength for the individual: https://www.patreon.com/paradiselostfinancial --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/paradiselostfinancial/support

Schedule your 15-minute call with Anthony or Cameron here: http://bit.ly/iwc15podcast BACK BY POPULAR DEMAND.......In today's episode, we interview Aaron Chapman with Security National Mortgage. Aaron does over 700 loans a year for Real Estate Investors and today we discuss why cash flow is really just the “Cherry On Top” of real estate investing. Today we dive deep into the tax advantages of Real Estate; How Real Estate acts as a Hedge Against Inflation; and Aaron provides a foundation understanding of interest rates which in turn helps to answer your question.....“Should I refinance?” Additional topics discussed include: Why are interest rates not 0%? Why lenders sell the servicing rights to loans? Should I refinance my personal residence and/or investment properties? Real Estate as a Hedge Against Inflation How policy loans work His thoughts on investing for appreciation Check out our online course at www.InfiniteWealthCourse.com Quotes: Leverage High, Leverage Long, Pay off Slow – Aaron Chapman RESOURCES: AND 1 Video: The Master Key System by Charles Haanel   Aaron's Website Aaron's Youtube Channel  Shadowstats.com Arron's books https://bit.ly/aaronchapman  QJO Initiative: 4 Books Series Point Your Head and Heart....Your Ass Will Follow: Book 1 Gratitude: A Practical Application: Book 2 Quit Jerkin Off: Book 3 Stihl Running: Book 4

#DaveKranzler: Exposing The US #Economic Recovery Myth While #CNBC and the Wall Street media often talk about the incredible US recovery we're all supposedly witnessing, is that actually reflective of reality? Or do the economic numbers created by the #government distort the truth and what's actually going? #JohnWilliams of #ShadowStats calculates that if we just used the same formula that the government used to use, before tweaking how it calculates the numbers, the #unemploymentrate for last December would be 20.8%! Which makes it interesting to think about how differently the entire globe would be acting and #investing if that was more widely reported. And shows just how much the numbers the market looks at can alter investor perspectives and reactions. Fortunately Dave Kranzler of #InvestmentResearchDynamics was kind enough to join me on the show to separate fact from fiction, and expose some of the myths that are propagated to make the politicians look good. At your expense. So to stay ahead of #WallStreet and discover what they don't want you to know, click to watch the interview now! - To get access to Dave's incredible research and his “Short Seller's Journal” and “Mining Stock Journal” go to: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/ - Interview by #ChrisMarcus of #ArcadiaEconomics on January 30, 2020: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/ - Click here to subscribe to Arcadia's Youtube channel: http://bit.ly/2t1HKOj - To pre-order Chris' upcoming book “#TheBigSilverShort” go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/the-big-silver-short/ - To contact Chris go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/getting-help/ - Follow Arcadia Economics on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ArcadiaEconomic - Arcadia's Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/ArcadiaEconomics/Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

#DaveKranzler: Exposing The US #Economic Recovery Myth While #CNBC and the Wall Street media often talk about the incredible US recovery we're all supposedly witnessing, is that actually reflective of reality? Or do the economic numbers created by the #government distort the truth and what's actually going? #JohnWilliams of #ShadowStats calculates that if we just used the same formula that the government used to use, before tweaking how it calculates the numbers, the #unemploymentrate for last December would be 20.8%! Which makes it interesting to think about how differently the entire globe would be acting and #investing if that was more widely reported. And shows just how much the numbers the market looks at can alter investor perspectives and reactions. Fortunately Dave Kranzler of #InvestmentResearchDynamics was kind enough to join me on the show to separate fact from fiction, and expose some of the myths that are propagated to make the politicians look good. At your expense. So to stay ahead of #WallStreet and discover what they don't want you to know, click to watch the interview now! - To get access to Dave's incredible research and his “Short Seller's Journal” and “Mining Stock Journal” go to: https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/ - Interview by #ChrisMarcus of #ArcadiaEconomics on January 30, 2020: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/ - Click here to subscribe to Arcadia's Youtube channel: http://bit.ly/2t1HKOj - To pre-order Chris' upcoming book “#TheBigSilverShort” go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/the-big-silver-short/ - To contact Chris go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/getting-help/ - Follow Arcadia Economics on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ArcadiaEconomic - Arcadia's Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/ArcadiaEconomics/Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

Sept. 6th, 2019(S14-E712)Featured GuestsJohn Williams & Arch Crawford Note: Guest order via seniority.Please Listen HereInterview Recap.John Williams of Shadowstats.com returns to... GREATEST INVESTMENT INFO ON THE WEB!!!

John Williams, Chris Taylor and Michael Oliver return. The Chinese have observed that global chaos sends capital toward the U.S. But China, Russia and others are sensing the dollar status is nearing its end. For the last few generations Americans have gotten away with living beyond our means. But as America's already non-serviceable debt of $22 trillion begins to explode exponentially higher, China and other governments hostile to America are finding ways to exit the dollar system. Williams has long believed reckless spending has destined Americans to a hyper-inflationary scenario even though recent chaotic events whether from war or financial crises have resulted into cash flowing into Safe Haven Treasuries. We will ask John how soon he sees a dollar decline leading to hyperinflation and what we should do to protect ourselves. Chris Taylor will update us on Great Bear's exciting Red Lake gold discovery and Michael will pass along his latest thoughts on gold and other key markets.

"Please see description below"... "We empower home sellers, buyers, investors, builders, developers, influencers and business partners to do what they are great at because they understand the importance of an elite real estate team and desire a strong support system behind them. They trust their advisors to help them make the decisions that best suit the advancement of their goals. ——————————— The Legacy Group is a full service real estate brand that operates not only in the real estate and real estate investing world, but also the digital marketing world. The team has completed hundreds of real estate transactions and has helped many more with their goals and business endeavors. We put more money into our client’s pockets by using data driven measures and by being the best negotiators in our market. The Legacy Group was started by Brandon Gentile who is a serial entrepreneur and found his calling building businesses and helping others do the same. TLG TV is a way for the team to give maximum value back to the market and provide exposure to the virtues of real estate and explode the myths inside of it. Not only will we have Q&A and industry issues but we will be bringing in business owners from every walk of life to bring value to you. To find the your home value go to: https://bit.ly/2ppDGE0 Check out our 98 Point Home Seller Checklist here: https://leads.legacygroupmi.com/98pointsellerchecklist Learn How to Win In Multiple Offer Situations: https://leads.legacygroupmi.com/multipleoffercheatsheet For your free list of Clarkston Homes for Sale: http://bit.ly/2wrsbjZ Find The Legacy Group here: Website: http://www.legacygroupmi.com Facebook: http://facebook.com/legacygroupmi Snapchat: https://www.snapchat.com/add/bmcneilg Twitter: http://twitter.com/legacygroupmi Instagram: http://instagram.com/legacygroupmi --------------------------------- We do our macro outlook of what's going on in the world economy and how it relates to you who are at home and the real estate market, etc. This is going to be a quick one today. I'm going to start making some shorter videos, some more bite-sized, consumable videos for everybody. I'm just looking at some sites I look at all the time. I want to give you guys some of these values that I am looking at and this is where I get a lot of my information. Zerohedge.com is an awesome place. Shadowstats.com is another unbelievable place to get any economic stats that you want. It's called shadowstats.com, but its shadowgovernmentstatistics.com and zerohedge.com is unbelievable too. It's happening It's really talking about what is actually going on in the economy, what is the actual unemployment rate, things like that. Right. A couple of the headlines I'm looking at right now, "US housing market and free fall as new buyers can't afford a home." Read more at https://legacygroupmi.com/february-2019-insiders-report/

#186: You’re paid five ways as a real estate investor. Rich Dad Tax Advisor Tom Wheelwright and I add up those five rates of return and provide you with an estimated Year One ROI. We discuss how to make trips to visit your turnkey rental property a tax-deductible event. With the new tax law, taxes are adjusted for “inflation” more often than previously. But CPI isn’t used. It doesn’t keep up with “real” inflation. Tom is the author of “Tax-Free Wealth”. Want more wealth? 1) Grab my free E-book and Newsletter at: GetRichEducation.com/Book 2) Actionable turnkey real estate investing opportunity: GREturnkey.com 3) Read my new, best-selling paperback: getbook.at/7moneymyths Listen to this week’s show and learn: 01:00 The Masters Law. 04:39 Belize Investor Tour. 09:10 Tom Wheelwright and I on real estate ROI. 18:55 Real estate depreciation example. 24:34 Making your trip to visit your turnkey property a tax-deductible event. 33:23 Inflation and taxes. Resources Mentioned: More About Tom: Wealthability.com Belize Investor Tour: GetRichEducation.com/Belize Mortgage Loans: RidgeLendingGroup.com Cash Flow Banking: ProducersWealth.com Apartment Investor Mastery: BradSumrok.com ShadowStats.com Find Properties: GREturnkey.com GRE Book: 7 Money Myths Education: GetRichEducation.com

John Williams from ShadowStats chimes in with his views on government inflation numbers, the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve. He also shares his views on how gold and silver will fare in the current and future U.S. economy.

John Williams from ShadowStats chimes in with his views on government inflation numbers, the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve. He also shares his views on how gold and silver will fare in the current and future U.S. economy.

Do you have the sense to wait out the market during lag times? Buy and hold is Jason's philosophy and he is a self made multi millionaire. The average American will never buy at the markets lowest point nor sell at the highest point. For most it takes time for the media's influence to inspire action which means always being late to the game. Increasing your knowledge and learning pertinent facts and figures will help you to anticipate upcoming changes in the market. Key Takeaways: [8:09] The impact of technology on inflation [9:07] Rate of change in inflation rates [11:50] Deflation in 2015 - July being the most deflationary month ever in the U.S. [14:13] Maintaining yield with the income and expense ratios [15:42] Staying power through lag time [16:58] How deflation affects real estate markets [19:47] Cash flow allows you to weather the downmarket storm [22:04] Jason's Commandment #5 - Thou shalt not gamble [24:11] Naresh questions what happens to the real estate market if we see a rate hike in 2016 [24:49] The 3 dimensions of real estate are buy, rent or homeless [27:31] Multidimensional asset class and price discovery [28:57] An example of an exchange to a linear market [35:49] Gold doesn't produce income and its not a good asset class Website: www.ShadowStats.com

Have you ever wondered why the CPI, GDP and employment numbers run counter to your personal and business experiences? The problem lies in biased and often-manipulated government reporting. My guest in this episode is John Williams. John has been a private consulting economist and a specialist in government economic reporting for more than 30 years. His economic consultancy is called Shadow Government Statistics (www.ShadowStats.com). His early work in economic reporting led to front-page stories in The New York Times and Investor's Business Daily. He received a bachelor's degree in economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a master's degree in business administration from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar.

In this the second episode of the Goldnomics podcast we ask the question; “Is this the biggest stock market bubble in history”. GoldCore CEO Stephen Flood and GoldCore's Research Director and world renowned precious metals commentator Mark O'Byrne in discussion with Dave Russell. We discuss what is really driving the markets to new record heights, the less than stable economic fundamentals and central bank interventionist strategy that it is based on. We ask is there anything that central banks have left in there ammunition box to halt a slide when it starts and avoid a crash. And most importantly we discuss what investors can do to protect themselves from the effects of the “Everything Bubble” bursting Cutting through the financial markets jargon and looking at the risks to your investment portfolio that aren't spoken about in the mainstream media. Listen to the full episode or skip directly to one of the following discussion points: 1:25 Why despite low volatility, low interest rates, low inflation, tax cuts and good employment numbers we are calling this the greatest stock market bubble in history. 2:13 Why we are in the bubble cycle. 4:04 The remarkable performance of the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones, are they to be believed? The Dow up 1,000 in a week! 5:45 How to evaluate if we are in a bubble 6:00 Why if you look under the bonnet of the fundamentals you find a rusty old engine. 6:06 Leverage, political and monetary interventions and irrational exuberance are all setting alarm bells ringing. 6:45 They’ve coined a new phrase for it – “Rational Exuberance”! 7:02 What’s fundamentally underpinning market sentiment, is there anything real? 7:35 The economic number that is the canary in the coal mine. 7:58 The fallacy of the economic numbers that we are shown. 8:20 A most shocking statistic – 15% of the American population are included in this incredible statistic. This doesn’t bode well for the state of the US economy. 9:10 The work of John Williams at Shadowstats revealing the truth behind the numbers. 9:30 What we mean when we talk about the Goldilocks economy. 9:45 Looking behind the employment and unemployment numbers. The shocking truth about manufacturing jobs in the US. 11:08 How the central banks created a wall of liquidity to fuel the everything bubble. 15:05 The massive growth in global debt since the credit crisis/debt crisis. 15:30 The importance if the debt to GDP ratio – no longer earning a return on capital. 17:05 The economic Ponzi scheme created by the central banks. 19:20 How the everything bubble effects everyone. Why what happens in the US has implications globally. 20:20 Margin debt and borrowing to invest, reminiscent of 1929 as are the moves in the stock market. 22:40 The silent danger of the passive investors. 24:20 Are we abandoning the fundamentals, is anyone actually looking at these individual companies anymore? 24:40 The growth and impact of ETFs and the lack of price discovery. 27:25 Algorithmic trading technological enhancement or a danger to free markets. 27:50 That tabloid-like Bloomberg headline. 28:55 What happens to market leading stocks in a downturn, are they safe? 30:20 FANG Stocks – Facebook, Amazon, Netflix & Google in a downturn. 30:40 Are the central banks out of ammunition and powerless to stop a crash? 31:50 Opening the Pandora’s Box of printing money, is hyperinflation assured? 34:20 Another way to look at quantitative easing. 34:25 The difference between printing money and printing currency. You can’t print money – gold is money. 35:45 How stocks are a hedge against inflation, but probably not the best one. 36:35 Should we be looking at higher allocations to precious metals in this climate?    37:40 The impact of the cashless society and what this means for gold and the importance of gold ownership. 38:05 How quantitative easing is effectively taxation except that it is much more insidious and the case for gold. 39:15 The danger of the cashless society and the digitization of the economy. 40:30 What actions you should be taking in to prepare for an in the event of a crash. 41:55 The role of cash in a portfolio during times of hyperinflation, bank bail-ins and stock market crashes. People mentioned in this episode: David Stockman John Williams – www.Shadowstats.com Make sure you don't miss a single episode...... Subscribe to the Goldnomics Podcasts on iTunes, Soundcloud, or YouTube: https://soundcloud.com/stephen-flood-381451255 YouTube.com/user/GoldCoreLimited Follow us on social media: GoldCore on Twitter: https://twitter.com/goldcore GoldCore on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/GoldCore/ GoldCore on Linkedin: https://ie.linkedin.com/company/goldcore   Visit our website at: https://www.goldcore.com

Statistics issued by the federal government about the economy—from CPI to GDP—are fake, and our guest John Williams of Shadowstats.com explains how and why.John is a vocal critic of modern economic reporting, which is manipulated to make the economy appear stronger than it is. So, he devoted his professional life to telling the real story, through statistics he painstakingly compiles himself. And, his statistics paint an alarming picture: virtually all "growth" in the US economy since the Crash of '08 has been artificially engineered by the Fed, while the risk of debt contagion has increased.Jeff and John discuss the "Fed tax," what a radical increase in the monetary base means for your financial future, and whether Janet Yellen will be forced to resort to more QE in 2017.This is a must-hear interview if you're interested in sober economic reality.

Justin and Jason discuss how to make progress when you have too much to do, an update on running the audio job board, hiring someone to keep you on task and tricks to reduce the cost of context switching, why Jason thinks Justin will regret taking a three-week trip to Europe, the latest on Catalyst Coder (the in-browser educational IDE), Justin's domino method of teaching and the nightmare of explaining the for loop, some hacks for simplifying Javascript and the possibility of writing a new language called "KidScript" that transcompiles to Javascript, new stylistic conventions in Node.js, the idea of creating coding games and a simplified graphics library for Catalyst Coder, tracking who bought your politician, exposing messaged economic models ShadowStats, how the returns of angel investors are better than previously thought, why PC obsolescence is obsolete, the best way to find aliens, Nikola Tesla, his patents and his Tower of Power, why the possibility of being in a simulation is driving Justin crazy, what's realistic and what's not about aircraft carriers in space and how the modern carriers are sitting ducks, how Tesla's Supercharger network has gone live in six California towns, the rise of the rocketship school, setting up an AnyFu Paypal account and what's going to happen with the show while Justin is in Europe.