Podcasts about macro watch

Trade globalization has created immense prosperity for the U.S. and the global economy. It's literally lifted millions of people out of poverty over the past several decades. The Chinese economy, in particular, has transformed dramatically as a result of its trade with the U.S. Other of our trading partners have benefitted as well. As our partners have accumulated U.S. currency, they've invested this money into U.S. bonds, which has helped us subsidize our budget deficit and national debt. The decisions we make concerning tariffs over the next couple years may have dramatic impacts on our domestic economy. Richard Duncan, author of “The Money Revolution, How to Finance the next American Century,” has a prescription for future growth and prosperity that entails investing in industries and technologies that will cement U.S. geopolitical preeminence. Richard is also the publisher of Macro Watch, a video-newsletter that analyzes the forces driving the economy and the financial markets in the 21st Century.

Keith discusses the current state of the US economy, noting that while it is considered strong by conventional measures, there are four major threats on the horizon that the country is not doing enough to address. He's joined by our guest, macroeconomic expert, Richard Duncan to discuss these topics. Richard proposes a solution that could strengthen the US's competitive position against China. Shifting from Capitalism to Creditism. Also, hear about the risks facing the real estate and stock markets in the near-term, such as the historically high wealth-to-income ratio and the ongoing quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve. Learn more about Richard's work through his video newsletter, Macro Watch. Use discount code GRE for 50% off at: RichardDuncanEconomics.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/527 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai  Keith Weinhold  0:01   Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, per conventional measures, today's us. Economy is strong, but there are four vicious threats on the horizon, and we're not doing enough about them. Our macroeconomist guests will discuss that with us today. How alarming is it, and what's the solution to our crises, this week on get rich education,   Speaker 1  0:27   since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:12   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:28   Welcome to GRE from Fort Wayne, Indiana to Fort Lee New Jersey and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back inside get rich education. We've been here for you, every single week since 2014 coming off of an election last week, this spurs more macroeconomic thought, monetary and fiscal policy, and more than that. And you know, one thing that I'm always looking for are signs of inflation versus deflation, because we live in a long term inflationary world. Well, you wouldn't keep a million bucks under a mattress because it would only be worth 300k in a few decades. But in deflation, you would flip your strategy and actually be a saver. You might keep millions out of the mattress, because deflation would actually increase the purchasing power of every single one of your dollars. Now, I've got a pretty unpopular take for you here at some point, probably now you've got to give the Fed credit for a soft landing. And what does a soft landing mean? Exactly. It means bringing down inflation without putting the economy into a recession. Well, inflation is down to about 2% now, unemployment is still low, near 4% and GDP growth for last quarter came in at 2.8% okay, yes, I sure understand that those benefits are distributed unevenly, but at this point, how much more of a soft landing Do you really want? And by the way, this sure doesn't mean that I love the Federal Reserve. I mean, they get no credit from me for not jumping on inflation sooner, when it peaked two and a half years ago, or even before that point, well, those high consumer prices as a result of that are still with us, and that's a problem, and they got that part wrong. We're about to talk with our global macroeconomic expert, really. He is one of the foremost authorities in the entire world today. We're going to talk about four major catastrophes the US economic future faces. One of those four is our ballooning national debt and deficit. And to review that for you, first, the debt is our overall accumulation of debt over the years now at 36 trillion. And when it comes to these awful, dreadful debt and deficit issues, I will ask our guests the question, when is it game over? Where is that tipping point? What would need to happen and the deficit? Okay, that refers to the annual shortfall, the annual thing, that shortfall that our bloated government keeps coming up with at the end of every year, all right, so therefore revenue minus spending equals deficit. Another way to say that is income minus expenses equals a deficit when the expenses are greater than the income. Well, that figure is near $2 trillion we're spending 2 trillion more than we raise in revenue each year. And here's an example. I'll use real world numbers rounded off to the nearest trillion. So if the government's annual revenue is only 5 trillion and you have to subtract out spending, which is 7 trillion, that could. Gives us an annual deficit of 2 trillion, pretty simple stuff, and that more or less gets added onto our overall debt of 36 trillion. Another major problem is this growing competition from China. Yes, I know that people like to discuss their demographic problems, but still, their population is more than four times the US population, and you learn about what other advantages they have over us and what we direly need to do to catch up. In our guests opinion, these issues incur some rather detailed explanations. So I'm really going to let our guest expert takeover for a while today, this weekend, I will be in San Antonio, Texas. San Antonio is an uptrending real estate market because they are really a beneficiary in distribution with their proximity to Mexico in the near shoring movement that's taking place. And then I will be in Austin, Texas, for a few days, Austin is one of the few major US metros that have seen rents substantially decline recently. I'll bring you next week's show from Austin, where I might talk more about that. Then, from the 20th to the 24th of this month, I'll be in New Orleans at the famed New Orleans investment conference, where they're pulling out all the stops at the 50th anniversary of the event, and that is the longest running investment event in America and perhaps the world. I hope to meet some of you there in New Orleans, just like I do each time I'm at the event. Let's talk about the bigger picture economy that your real estate and investments float within next.   This week's guest is the author of four books analyzing the crises that brought the global economy to the brink of collapse in recent decades. One of the books forecast the 2008 global financial crisis with great accuracy. We're going to discuss future crises here today, before we're done, he has worked as an equities and Investment Analyst, and then he went on to hold some rather esteemed roles at the World Bank in DC and as a consultant to the IMF in Asia. He joins us from Thailand today. He now publishes a video newsletter called macro watch, and long time listeners know that today's guest was also this show's very first guest that was back on GRE podcast episode seven, only 10 years ago now, in November 2014, and he's really become quite the friend of the show, and we've looked out for each other ever since. It's terrific to have back global macro economist Richard Duncan   Richard Duncan  7:46   Keith, hey, thank you for having me back. It's great to speak with you again.   Keith Weinhold  7:50   Oh, it's so good to have you here an entire decade of our lives. And as times change, economies are surely dynamic, and you're so good at spotlighting crises and explaining them in a way to people that they can understand. So Richard, why don't you talk to us now about risks facing the nation? Yes, I'm talking about the United States.   Richard Duncan  8:15   A lot of podcasts focus on all the problems the United States is facing, and it is certainly true that the United States is facing very serious risk. So I'd like to start off this conversation telling you what I think the greatest risk facing our country are. There are four main things I'd like to hit on. The first is something you mentioned to me before in our exchange of emails, is that the US government does have a very high level of government debt relative to GDP, and the budget deficits are large. So that's problem number one. Problem number two, in my opinion, looking at this from where I live in Asia, is that the United States is at risk of being conquered by China in the not too distant future. Risk Number Two. Risk Number three, we have very serious domestic political divisions within the United States. Risk Number four is that our post capitalist economic system, which I call creditism, must have credit growth to survive. If credit contracts, then our economy will spiral into a Great Depression that will be probably worse than the one of the 1930s so those are the big four problems that we have, and it doesn't do anyone any good just to talk about our country's problems if you don't offer a solution to them. So in my opinion, all of these problems can be overcome by accelerating economic growth in the United States, while all of these problems would be made very much worse by anything that causes us economic growth to slow down. The way to make the US economy grow much faster is to have the US Government finance a very, very large investment in the industries and technologies of the future over the next 10 years, starting immediately. The alternative austerity would cause the economy to spiral down into deflation. We'd like your listeners to think of austerity when they hear the word austerity. I'd like them to think of the word death. It's austerity is equal to death. Yeah, the US doesn't have to be a declining power. The first American Century doesn't have to be the last. It can be the first of many. The solution for driving the US economy to grow much more rapidly and solving all four of the problems that I mentioned above is a US sovereign wealth fund. Thank heavens. Both parties now support the establishment of a US sovereign wealth fund. On September 5, former President Trump came out in support of establishing a US sovereign wealth fund, and on the following day, the Biden administration said, then working on this for months and had a plan that they were developing. So this is fantastic news for the United States. It offers great hope for solving all of our greatest problems. And I'd like to spend, you know, a few minutes explaining to your listeners what a US sovereign wealth fund is, yes, urgently necessary, and why both parties have now come to understand why this is important to establish.   Keith Weinhold  11:27   Yeah, please tell us why you think the US sovereign wealth fund is so urgently needed, and what it is because for even longer than the 10 years since you were first here, for about 15 years now, you have championed and promoted this US sovereign wealth fund. You discussed it on CNBC Squawk Box and all over the place. Last year, you presented about it in a speech in DC to 15 members of the House, Ways and Means Committee. So tell us about the US sovereign wealth fund and why you think it's urgently needed.   Richard Duncan  11:56    Let's begin with, what is a sovereign wealth fund? Well, effectively, a sovereign wealth fund is where a country invest in individual companies or even in startups. There are sovereign wealth funds all around the world. Norway has the largest, Singapore has two very effective ones called gdic and Temasek, which had been enormously profitable and successful, and it made the people in Singapore much richer. So a sovereign wealth fund in the United States would be an investment bond financed by the United States government with the US. This investment fund would take stakes in existing companies and also in startup companies, hopefully on a very large scale. Now, some people have asked, Why is this framework necessary? Why do we need a sovereign wealth fund to do that when the government is already making investments in the military, for instance, and funding some R and D research? Well, the difference between what the government is doing now and a sovereign wealth fund is with a sovereign wealth fund, the government would actually keep equity stakes in these companies that they invest in, meaning that when these companies they invest in become enormously profitable, the profits would be owned by every American. The Americans would have the equity stakes in all of the investments that this sovereign wealth fund makes. And it would be a situation where the government provides the financing, but the private sector manages the companies. The government just finances these companies in new industries and new technologies, and the government has the ability to invest on a very much larger scale than the private sector does. For example, The United States has a lot of great companies in the private sector that have accomplished really, truly great things in recent years and long past as well. But these private sector companies cannot invest on the same scale that the Chinese government can. The Chinese government is investing on a much larger scale than any of the American companies could ever dream to invest on. And that's explains why China is overtaking us now technologically, and if they continue to invest at a rapid rate that they're doing currently, then before long, there are going to be far ahead of us technologically and therefore economically, and more worryingly, militarily, the US government has the ability to invest truly on a multi trillion dollar scale over the next decade in new industries and technologies, things like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, nanotech, biotech, genetic engineering and developing energy sources like fusion, and it has the ability to do this on such a large scale that it would be certain to succeed. And once these companies start creating cancer vaccines or fusion, for instance, they would be enormously profitable, and they could be listed on. NASDAQ at multi trillion dollar valuations, and the American public would own equity stakes in these companies, and would then would directly reap the rewards of these profits that these companies would generate. That is what a sovereign wealth fund is, why it's desperately needed, is, well, first of all, we should do it, because we can easily afford to do it. And the results, the breakthroughs, the technological breakthroughs and medical miracles that these sorts of companies would produce, would we really have the shot of curing all the diseases and radically extending life expectancy, developing sources of limitless energy that would bring down the cost of energy radically. Just across the board, it would induce a technological revolution that would turbo charge us economic growth, create UNDRIP wealth, and at the same time, shore up US national security in the face of this growing threat from China. So for all of those reasons, it is urgently necessary. In my opinion.   Keith Weinhold  16:04   both Norway and Singapore have had similar models to this. US sovereign wealth fund, and we certainly think of those two nations as prosperous places, tell me more about why it's a success so the government finances it does that incentivize companies to therefore take more risk?   Richard Duncan  16:25   It allows them to invest more. It allows them to invest on a much larger scale than that. Could if they have to rely on their own funding sources. Rather than investing millions of dollars, they could invest billions of dollars or 10s of billions of dollars. For instance, at the moment, the National Cancer Institute in the United States, this annual budget is $6 billion a year. $6 billion a year is not curing cancer. If we look back a few years ago, the Fed was creating $120 billion a month through quantitative easing per month. So with just 5% of one month of QE, you could double the National Cancer Institute's budget. Now that's not what this sovereign wealth fund would do. That just illustrates the scale. How much greater the scale would be that the government could invest on relative to what is currently being invested at the moment by the government and by the private sector combined.   Keith Weinhold  17:28   Do any critics ever ask about Wait? Is this too much government intervention into the free market? Is this a move away from capitalism? What do you say to those sort of critics?   Richard Duncan  17:38    I say to them that capitalism died in World War One. It certainly didn't survive the 20th century. Now the government. In the 19th century, we had capitalism. The government had very little involvement in the economy then and gold was money. But now gold is no longer money. The Fed creates some money. Government spending is something like nearly $7 trillion out of a GDP. That is around just not quite $30 trillion yet. So the government has been directing the economy going back at least since World War Two. This hasn't been capitalism for a very long time. Under capitalism, the private sector made investments, and some businessmen would make profits from their investments, and they would save that profit as capital and reinvest that capital. That's how capitalism grew. That's why they called it capitalism. It was based on capital accumulation and investment. But that's not how our economic system has worked for decades. Our system now is not driven by investment and saving by the private sector. It's driven by credit creation and consumption and more credit creation and more consumption and our economies has now been transformed from capitalism. It has evolved into creditism, with the government playing the directing role. So total credit in the United States, just last quarter blew through $100 trillion for the first time. By what I mean by total credit is the same thing as total debt. Total credit is equal to total debt. So this is all the debt of all sectors of the economy, the government sector, the household sector, the corporate sector, the financial sector, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac all the sectors of the economy, it just went through $100 trillion and Breda ism has created very rapid growth, especially all around the world, not only in the United States, because it has allowed the US economy to grow so rapidly and to import so much from other countries that this is why The Asian miracle occurred. I've lived through the Asian miracle because the US has been running massively large trade deficits since the early 1980s and all these countries in Asia have been running massively large trade surpluses, and all this spending that the Americans have been doing has been fueled by this rapidly. Radically expansion of credit. Total credit first went through $1 trillion in 1964 now it's $100,000,000,000,000. 60 years later. Now our system is not capitalism. The government is very involved. Anytime there's any problem with the economy, the government steps in. In 2008 the government prevented a new Great Depression when the private sector the households defaulted on their debts and caused all the banks to fail, and Freddie Mac did fail and had to be taken over by the government. So at that time, we narrowly avoided a Great Depression, because the government increased its budget deficits by more than a trillion dollars a year for four years in a row, and the Fed expanded. The Fed created three and a half trillion dollars between the end of 2007 and 2014, expanding its balance sheet by about five times. So that's not capitalism. We don't have capitalism. So people who are worried about us abandoning capitalism. They're behind the times that happened a long time ago. That shouldn't be a concern. They should be aware now that we are competing against players who don't play by the capitalist rules of little government intervention in the markets we're now competing against China, and China is one giant sovereign wealth fund intent on dominating the world by investing very aggressively in new industries and technologies. In the year 2000 the United States invested, I think, 10 times as much in research and development as China did. But now China is actually investing more in research and development and the US is and that explains why China is ahead in so many areas of technology. They had 5g years before we did. They are the leaders in electric vehicles and batteries. We have to put up 100% tariffs to keep out electric vehicles from China because they're so much better than our electric vehicles. They dominate solar panels. And are worse, they have hypersonic missiles and we don't, and I'm sure they have other military advantages that we don't, because they invest much more aggressively in new industries and technologies than our government does. And if we don't rectify this quickly, then we are soon going to be overtaken by China militarily, and our national security is at risk, much more than most Americans understand. But this realization has slowly grown on policymakers in Washington, and now both parties are worried about this, and this is why we have this growing fear of China, and why we have proposals to limit technology transfers to China, and this is why we've done things like the chips and science act, where the government has agreed to finance a $280 billion investment in new industries and technologies a couple of years ago, with 50 billion of that going into setting up manufacturing facilities within the in the US to create semiconductors, rather than relying solely on Taiwan to obtain all of our semiconductors, because China could take Taiwan at any moment, and then then he would end up with all the semiconductor chips that go into powering artificial intelligence. And whoever develops Artificial General Intelligence first is going to rule the world, and therefore it had better be the United States rather than China, because we don't want to live in a world dominated by China, believe me.    Keith Weinhold  23:26   Well, a lot of macro voices agree with you. About two months ago, we had the president of the Mises Institute here, and the way he characterized things are in the United States. 100 years ago, we had islands of socialism in a sea of capitalism, and today we merely have islands of capitalism in a sea of socialism. Do you see the US sovereign wealth fund being able to solve all four of the United States big problems that you outlined, debt and deficit conquering by China, political division and creditism. Can it solve all four of those?   Richard Duncan  24:04   Yes, it can. So as you know, Keith, a couple of years ago, I published my fourth book. It was called the money revolution. Yeah? How to find the book? Sure, yeah. How to finance the next American century. It was a subtitle. Now I argue that it would be very easy for the US to invest on a multi trillion dollar scale, new industries and new technologies over the next decade, and if we do that through a sovereign wealth fund, then would generate so much growth and be so profitable that instead of causing the government debt to increase, it would actually make the economy so much larger and generate so many more tax revenues, and the government would make so many profits from these companies that it has equity stakes in that it would reduce the government debt in absolute terms, and radically reduce the government debt relative to GDP, which would grow far faster than it has been growing in recent decades. This problem, number one, solved the high level of government debt. A high level of debt to GDP just make the GDP grow a lot faster, and the ratio of debt to GDP will go down. Problem number two is the US is at risk of being conquered by China. We can out invest China. We can invest more than China can afford to invest. We still have the best universities and the best entrepreneurs and scientists. So if we invest on a large enough scale, we will win, and China will not conquer us. Third, if the economy is growing at 7% a year instead of 1% a year, that is going to alleviate a lot of the domestic tensions that exist currently, much of the reason there's the origins of this domestic political divide that we're now suffering from in the US is because such a large part of the population has been left behind when all the factories moved overseas, countries like China and Vietnam, we de industrialized, and the people who Used to have good factory jobs, good, unionized, high paying factory jobs. All those people were left out in the cold, and they're not happy about it. And so if our economy were growing much more rapidly, these people would have much better jobs and much higher salaries, and they would be much happier than they are at the moment. And the final one was our post capitalist system of creditism requires credit growth to survive. So if the government is financing these investments on a multi trillion dollar scale, it's going to make credit expand, and that's going to keep the economy expanding. So yes, it would solve all four of those problems.   Keith Weinhold  26:35   One of those four problems is the debt and the deficit. I want to dive into that more with Richard as it becomes more and more problematic in the United States, and just how far we can kick this can down the road. You're listening to get rich education. We're talking with macro economist Richard Duncan. More, we come back. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.    Oh, geez. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. So your bank is getting rich off of you. You've got to earn way more, or else you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to a 10% return and compounds year in and year out, instead of earning less than 1% in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And you know how I know, because I'm an investor in this myself, earn 10% like me and GRE listeners are. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866    Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group, NMLS, 420056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridgelendinggroup.com that's Ridgelendinggroup.com   Jim Rickards  28:40   this is Author Jim Rickards. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  28:55   Welcome back to get rich education. We are going big this week, talking about the global economy, although mostly centered on the United States, with macroeconomist Richard Duncan. You can learn more about him at RichardDuncaneconomics.com and Richard I want to talk about the debt in the deficit. The debt is the United States overall debt as it accumulates year after year, and the deficit is just the annual thing, and it's so interesting and concerning. When I look at this, when you look at the line items in the United States government's annual spending, we now see that interest payments are taking the second largest chunk, only to Social Security. Social Security's number one interest is the second biggest expense, even more than defense spending and on Medicare. So I just wonder, as I see the interest payments going up and up and up and projected to be our greatest expense every year. You know, one thing I think about Richard is when our interest payments alone exceed our. Revenue somewhere down the road, is that when it's game over, or is that when we're on the way to game over? So can you talk to us about really, where the concern crops up with the deficit, like I talked about, and with the debt that's now at about $36 trillion   Richard Duncan  30:17   deficit and debt is a real problem. It was the first problem that I mentioned when we kicked off the conversation. There are two components of that. One is the fact that government debt has been increasing very rapidly. At the end of 2007 total government debt was around $9 trillion by 2014 it had doubled to $18 trillion because the government had to respond to the collapse of the private sector in 2008 and prevent us from having a great depression at that time, and then after 2014 it has doubled again, from 18 trillion to $36 trillion now, much of that was due to the need for the government to keep us from having another Great Depression during COVID When government stimulus amounted to about $5 trillion and the Fed created a similar amount over just a two year period. So now we have a much higher level of government debt. But the second component of that is that interest rates are very much higher than they used to be. The federal funds rate went up from 0% a few years back to a high of five and a quarter, actually a range between five and a quarter and five and a half. And recently, the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points. But you can still say it is 4.9% let's call it 4.9% so interest rates are far higher than they used to be, but they don't have to remain high. The reason interest rates went up is because the Fed increased the federal funds rate. And the reason the Fed increased the federal funds rate is because we had high rates of inflation. Inflation peaked at 9% or so in 2022 but most recently, the CPI has come back down to 2.4% and the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, that PCE Price Index, has come down to 2.2% and that means that the federal funds rate, which is 4.9% is more than twice as high as the inflation rate is. That shows us that we have very tight monetary policy, and the Fed should be able to reduce interest rates very rapidly going forward. They've told us in their dot plot projections that they expect that interest rates will end this year the federal funds rate at 4.4% and then in next year, at 3.4% and 2026 at 2.9% so that reduction in interest rates will bring down the cost of the total interest expense that you mentioned as being so high currently, the risk, however, is that we get a rebound in inflation. We're inflation to surge again, then interest rates won't come down. In fact, they could go higher. So all of my career, more or less, has been spent in Asia. And the main theme that is run through the global economy, the development of the global economy over the last three and a half decades has been globalization, globalization in the form of us running very large trade deficits with other countries. Literally, the US current account deficit since the early 1980s has been $15 trillion meaning countries with the trade surpluses have had a $15 trillion trade surplus, and that's why they've all been transformed economically as a result of their trade surplus with the US, but what the US got out of this was the ability to buy things made with very low cost labor, and that was extremely disinflationary, that drove down the inflation rate in the US, and that allowed interest rates in the US to come down to very low levels that we've seen during most of this century, Up until the time COVID started. The real danger is now, if we do impose very high trade tariffs on China and our other trading partners, then that will cause a very serious spike in inflation. And it won't just be one off, because, of course, when the tariffs are put in place, that will immediately cause everything to be that much more expensive. The US companies importing goods from abroad would have to pay that tariff, then those US companies would pass those higher expenses on to the consumers, so we'd get an immediate spike in inflation. But that would also mean that the companies abroad it wouldn't be so profitable for them to have their manufacturing facilities abroad, they would try to bring those back home. And given that the unemployment rate in the US is so low already, only 4.1% there's not enough labor to allow these manufacturing facilities to come back to the US and start producing goods in the US. So that would cause an upward spiral. In wages and the wage push inflation spiral of the type that we had in the late 1960s and early 1970s so that is a In other words, tariffs would put an end to globalization, and that would cause a such a severe spike in inflation and interest rates, it would essentially be the death nail for creditism, which requires credit growth to survive. The end of globalization would mean this end of this 30 year global economic boom that the world has enjoyed, and therefore it is a very severe threat, and it would push up the interest expense of the US government, which you let off with, instead of lower interest rates, bringing down the interest expense the government has to pay every year, we would have instead higher interest rates, which would make the amount that the government has to pay on its interest even higher than it is at the moment, and make the budget deficit even larger than it is at the moment, and Make the government debt grow even faster than it's growing at the moment. So let's hope that doesn't happen. Instead, the better approach is to invest, to have the government finance large scale investments in new industries and technologies make the economy grow much more rapidly and we can grow our way out of this debt problem that we're currently in,   Keith Weinhold  36:21   yes more inflation, whether that comes from higher tarrifs or any other sources, will lead to higher interest rates to counteract that higher inflation, which will Yes, pump up the deficit in the debt that much more. And you know, one thing that I like about Richard is, you know, a lot of people complain about things, or say, what are we going to do? Or Things look bad, and Richard is saying some of that, but he offers a way forward with the US sovereign wealth fund, like he talked about before, investing our way out of it. So Richard, if we don't invest in this debt and deficit situation gets worse. It could be a hard question to answer, but I'd like your best guess at how far can we kick the can down the road? When is it game over? How big do our interest payments on the debt and deficit have to get?    Richard Duncan  37:10   the game is never over. No matter how bad things become, humanity will survive and carry on. So even in the Great Depression, people made it through, even through World War Two that resulted, largely as a result of the Great Depression. A lot of people died. 60 million people died, but the game didn't end. So regardless of how bad the economic system system were to become, humanity will survive and there will be a solution. Now, a lot of people put forward that, the idea that they point out that we have this high level of government debt, and their solution is to reduce government spending. The government spends something like $6.8 trillion last year. That was the amount the government spent. The budget deficit last year was 1.8 trillion so in order to eliminate the budget deficit, the government would have to spend $1.8 trillion less. In other words, it would have to cut its spending by 27% but the government cut its spending by 27% they're going to happen. The economy would immediately spiral into a depression. So even that reduction in spending wouldn't balance the budget, because the government revenues would collapse, and they would have even fewer tax revenues, so the deficit would still be there, the economy would collapse, and the unemployment rate would be 20 plus percent, and would just fall further behind China and be at greater risk from a national security perspective, and much more miserable As a society overall. That's why it's always say people should consider think of the words austerity and death at the same time, because austerity would bring about the collapse of our economic system and the Great Depression unless your civilization would survive it.  trying to answer your question more directly, how high could this go? Well, governments don't default on their debt when push comes to shove. If the government's having a hard time paying interest on its debt, the Fed will just print more money. And in a case where between 2008 and 2014 when the Fed created three and a half trillion dollars, they printed a lot of money at that short space of time, and they got away with it without having high rates of inflation. The highest rate of inflation we had during that period was 3.8% in 2011 and by the early months of 2015 we had deflation again for a few months. Prices actually fell negative CPI for a few months in 2015 so if we have a global economy, as we do at the moment, full of we have nearly 8 billion people, I would guess 2 billion of them at least live on less than $5 a day. So the US could get away with having a lot of paper money printing without having higher, very high rates of inflation and the government could finance itself that way for quite a long time. Of course, if we have a closed domestic economy brought about by extremely high tariff barriers, then we would end up with hyperinflation in the United States. But even with hyperinflation, it would be very painful for people who have all their cash in the bank or under their mattress, but people with assets, those asset prices would appreciate more or less in line with the inflation, and it would erode the government debt relative to the size of the economy, because the GDP would grow in nominal terms very rapidly because of the hyperinflation, and the debt, which is not inflation adjusted, would be evaporated away by the inflation.   Keith Weinhold  40:43    right? that's why here at GRE we are all invested and aimed toward prudent use of leverage with assets like real estate and we sure have been the beneficiaries of that wave of inflation that followed COVID there. Richard, well, we're talking about the debt and the deficit somewhat, which, interestingly, has actually doubled since the first time you were here on the show. When you were here, 10 years ago, it was at 18 trillion, and today it's at 36 trillion. We talked about, how far can you kick the can down the road back then? Well, here we are, 10 years later, and it's doubled. Talk to us. You know, you talked previously about the greatest risk to the United States economy. Tell us now, as we are investors here on this show, about the greatest risk to the real estate and stock market, I would just say within the next year. What are some of those risks to those particular markets?   Richard Duncan  41:38   We've already discussed the main risk that high tariffs would potentially cause a new spike of inflation and force the Fed to hike interest rates rather than cutting interest rates. But there are some other risk as well. One is the fact that we already have a very high level of wealth relative to income. Let me back up a second. You were talking about debt doubling since we first spoke 10 years ago. Here's another statistic for you. Just in the last four and a half years, the total wealth of the Americans, all of their assets minus all of their liabilities. In other words, household sector net worth. Since the end of 2019 it has increased by $47 trillion in four and a half years. That's about a 40% increase. Now, $47 trillion is enough to pay off the entire US government tip, which we've been worrying about with $11 trillion left over. So not everything is as bleak as it sounds on the surface. We've had a huge explosion of wealth in the last four and a half years that's been driven by property and also by stocks. The problem now is, is that the level of income the asset prices, are very inflated relative to their historic norms. And one of the ratios that I always keep an eye on is called the wealth to income ratio. It takes the household sector net worth. In other words, the wealth that we were just discussing, which, by the way, is now $164 trillion of wealth owned by the Americans. The wealth divided by income, disposable personal income, this wealth to income ratio is now an extraordinarily high level. The ratio is 785% whereas the average of that ratio going back to 1950 has been 550% the previous two peaks were in the year 2000 when it hit 620 during the NASDAQ bubble, and then that bubble popped, and the stock market crashed, and we had a recession, and it went back to 550 and then it surged to a new peak of 680 during the property bubble. And then that bubble popped, and we almost went into a depression, and that a lot of wealth was destroyed. We had a severe recession. The government had to bail us out from and that ratio went back to 550 again. Now it is just off the charts relative to its previous peaks, because people 680 now it's 785 so people used to suggest that higher asset prices were justified because interest rates were near 0% but even after the Fed hiked interest rates from near 0% to about 5% The asset prices have stayed inflated. That does suggest that asset prices are very inflated and therefore very vulnerable to any sort of shock that could occur, whether geopolitical or economic or domestic political problems. So that's a concern. Another concern is quantitative tightening is still occurring. Quantitative tightening is the opposite of quantitative easing. When, with quantitative easing, the Fed creates money and pumps it into the financial markets, and that tends to make asset prices go up, and it also tends to make interest rates on government debt stay low, because if it pushes up bond prices, it pushes down. Bond yields. Well, now the opposite is occurring. Over the last two years, the Fed has destroyed roughly $2 trillion it created $5 trillion from the end of 2019 till about 2022 during the COVID pandemic, and the policy response to that, the Fed created $5 trillion but now it's destroyed 2 trillion of that five that it created, and is still destroying dollars at the rate of about $60 billion a month, or $700 billion a year. And as it does, as it destroys dollars, it takes dollars out of the financial system, which all other things being the same, tends to make financial conditions tighter, putting upward pressure on bond yields and downward pressure on asset prices. So as this continues, this is a concern, because reduce the liquidity in the system by another $700 billion if it continues for another year, having said that there is still an enormous amount of excess liquidity in the system as a result of all of the money that the Fed has created, going back to 2008 I estimate that the excess liquidity is somewhere around three and a half trillion dollars. If you look at bank reserves and the reverse repos at the Fed is about three and a half trillion dollars of excess liquidity, and the Fed actually has to pay interest to the banks on their bank reserves to hold interest rates up. That's how the Fed controls the federal funds rate now. It pays the banks roughly right now, 4.8% interest on all of the banks bank reserves, and so the banks will not lend money to anyone at less than 4.8% interest, because the Fed will pay them 4.8% interest. Why would they lend to anyone else for less if it suddenly stopped paying interest on these bank reserves, these banks would look around and where would they invest their three and a half trillion dollars in? No one's going to pay them 4.8% or even 3.8% or 2.8% interest rates would plunge because of all the excess liquidity that exists. So this excess liquidity has been a thing that's been driving the economy since COVID started, and it's why we've managed to avoid recession, which everyone is expected to arrive any moment now for the last two and a half years. So there are concerns, but there are also, as always, other reasons for optimism.   Keith Weinhold  47:24   Well, that wealth to income ratio that Richard talked about, that's a calculation that you yourself can do. One's net worth is almost eight times their income now, which is at a historic high, which is one concerning point that Richard brought up. Well, Richard, I want you to tell us about your terrific video newsletter, macro watch unless you have any other last thoughts first.   Richard Duncan  47:51   well, just one last word on the US sovereign wealth fund. Thank you very much for giving me a chance to discuss that and to explain why both Democrats and Republicans are now in favor of establishing a US sovereign wealth fund, one of the few issues that has bipartisan support. And this must come as a surprise to many of your listeners and most Americans, in fact, why have both parties agreed on really setting up a US sovereign wealth fund? So I'm glad I've had a chance to explain it and why it's so urgently necessary. I'd just like to emphasize the extraordinary benefits that this delivers to the American people, both individually and at a national level, individually, in terms of medical breakthroughs and better health and much more rapid economic growth for the economy, so much more wealth and much more national security as well. So I hope the Americans will get on board with this idea and give it their full support, because it's exactly what our country needs to solve all the four issues, the major issues that I laid out at the beginning of this conversation. But with that said, if your listeners would like to learn more about my work, Macrowatch. Microwatch is a video newsletter. Every couple of weeks, I upload a new video discussing something important happening in the global economy and how that's likely to affect the stock market, property, currencies and commodities. They can find macro watch on my website, which is RichardDuncanEconomics.com that's RichardDuncanEconomics.com Macro Watch has been going on now for 11 years, they'll find more than 100 hours of videos in the microwatch archives. They can begin watching immediately, and they'll receive a new video every couple of weeks. And I'd like to offer your listeners a subscription discount. If they go to Richard Duncan economics.com and hit the subscribe button, they'll be prompted to put in a discount coupon code, if they put it in G, R, E, they can subscribe to macro watch at a 50% discount. That's great. That's GRE so I hope they'll check that out, and at the very least, they can sign up there for my free blog and follow my work that way.   Keith Weinhold  49:56   And I have benefited from consuming macro watch content myself over the years, allowing me to sort of stretch my thought process and go macro, which we don't always do as real estate investors. Oh, Richard, it's been valuable as always, and you really offered a solution, a way forward here, something that's really refreshing. It's been great as always, having you back on the show.   Richard Duncan  50:18   Yeah. Thank you very much. I look forward to the next time   Keith Weinhold  50:21   me too. when it comes to the term capitalism, if that's truly a system that we're no longer in, you know, it seems to get replaced with the word meritocracy, and that is a word that I like, meritocracy, where producers get rewards for being productive, but even that is under attack, and the government just always seems to be stepping in with a safety net. Seemingly everywhere you look, it won't let banks fail. We saw them jump in early last year with Silicon Valley Bank and other bank failures, the government won't let homeowners fail either. I mean, you don't have to think back very far with mortgage loan forbearance in the COVID era, on issues of the debt and deficit. Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself has called it unsustainable. That's the word that he used. Like Richard said today, we won't default. We'll just print more. So when it comes to the inflation versus deflation tug of war, the future keeps looking inflationary, but at what rate of inflation? That's what I don't know, and no one really knows. If you like Richard Duncan's content, and you sort of wished he and I's conversation would go on. Well, he is a regular guest here, so I expect him back. But if you're telling yourself, I want more of his content and I want to make it visual at the same time to help really bring this to life, well, visit RichardDuncanEconomics.com hit the subscribe button and get 50% off. That's five zero, 50% off with the discount code. GRE. Happy Veterans Day. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 2  52:17   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice, please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively you   Keith Weinhold  52:46   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com

The national debt has climbed to nearly $35 Trillion dollars. Many economists believe this will produce unavoidable inflation and increased interest rates. As of this year, however, U.S inflation has been largely tamed and come back down to historical norms. This has largely been the result of global supply chains opening back up, and the overall impacts of globalization. Richard Duncan, author of “The Money Revolution, How to Finance the next American Century,” has a prescription for future growth and prosperity that entails investing in industries and technologies of the future that will cement U.S. geopolitical preeminence. Richard is also the publisher of Macro Watch, a video-newsletter that analyzes the forces driving the economy and the financial markets in the 21st Century.

Yes, many pundits are still warning about a recession in 2024.  Here's one example. Richard Duncan did a Macro Watch fourth-quarter update. He pointed out that between 1952 and 2009, all nine times total credit (adjusted for inflation) grew by less than 2%, and the economy went into a recession.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On today's episode, Clay is joined by Richard Duncan to discuss current market conditions, whether we'll see a recession in 2024, the potential for interest rate cuts, and more. Richard Duncan is the author of The Money Revolution: How To Finance The Next American Century. Since beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986, Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington D.C., and headed equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok. He also worked as a consultant for the IMF in Thailand during the Asia Crisis.   Since 2013, Richard has published Macro Watch, a video newsletter that analyzes the forces driving the economy and the financial markets in the 21st Century. IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 01:47 - How our modern-day economy is structured with the US dropping the gold standard in 1971. 10:29 - Why our economy requires perpetual credit expansion. 17:46 - How the credit environment has developed since 2020. 26:11 - What a recession is and what the implications of a recession are. 29:47 - Why Richard foresees a recession in 2024. 31:55 - The primary drivers of credit growth. 43:26 - Why we'll likely see interest rate cuts in 2024. 53:03 - The drawbacks of our modern-day economy. 60:00 - Indicators that investors need to monitor in today's economy. 64:03 - Where the US is at in the AI race. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Richard Duncan Website. Macro Watch Website. The Money Revolution Book. Related Episode: TIP488: Current Market Conditions w/ Richard Duncan | YouTube Video. Related Episode: TIP424: How to Finance the Next American Century w/ Richard Duncan | YouTube Video. Follow Richard on Twitter. Follow Clay on Twitter. Learn more about the Berkshire Summit by clicking here or emailing Clay at clay@theinvestorspodcast.com. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. NEW TO THE SHOW? Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: River Toyota Wise NetSuite Fidelity TurboTax NDTCO Linkedin Marketing Solutions Fundrise Vacasa NerdWallet Babbel Shopify HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This Flashback Friday is from episode 958, published last February 13, 2018. Jason Hartman kicks off the show today asking his ultimate question: compared to what? It's a question that will serve you well in all aspects of your life and will guide you down the right path. He also wants to invite you to join him on any of his adventures scheduled for this year to make your vacation planning even easier. Then Jason wraps up his interview with Macro Watch's Richard Duncan. The two tackle the topic of rising interest rates, better uses for going into further debt than giving it to tax reform, how the Fed will react to a tanking stock market, and what we can expect to see over the next few years. #FlashbackFriday #RealEstateInvesting #FinancialIndependence #InvestmentTips #WealthCreation #EconomicAnalysis #TaxReform #GovernmentInvestment #FiscalPolicy #QuantitativeTightening #StockMarketVolatility #PropertyInvestment #GlobalEconomy #RichardDuncanEconomics Key Takeaways: Jason editorial 4:06 Always view things in perspective, and remember, COMPARED TO WHAT? 6:45 Meeting fellow investors is crucial to success 8:12 Why doesn't Jason want you to plan any vacations this year? 12:07 Over Thanksgiving, while re-reading The Art of the Deal, Jason realized that Trump is a New York liberal Richard Duncan Interview 14:52 What people don't realize about interest rates "People buy houses on a payment, not a price" 16:04 What the Fed will do if the market drops 10% and what else will happen if it drops 20% 19:23 What Richard wishes the government had done with the $1 trillion in new deficits that will occur from the new tax reform 23:57 Why Richard thinks the government can invest as wisely as private companies 28:24 What are the next few years going to look like? 30:56 People need to get very familiar with quantitative tightening Websites: www.RichardDuncanEconomics.com (promo code: GLOBAL for 50% off) www.JasonHartmanUniversity.com www.JasonHartmanIcehotel.com www.VentureAllianceMastermind.com   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com    

Learn the pros and cons of bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency. Bitcoin can be moved well across space and time. You can't move dollars over time due to inflation; you can't  move gold over space due to weight and security concerns. Real estate, bitcoin, and gold are all scarce and take real-world resources to produce. Bitcoin is a global digital currency that's decentralized. Nick Giambruno joins us to discuss why bitcoin has value today.  Since there can only be 21 million bitcoin, it cannot be debased like dollars are. By April, bitcoin will experience a halving. Rather than 900 new bitcoins brought into issuance daily, there will be 450.  The SEC's recent Spot EFT approval will give more investors bitcoin access. The higher the stock-to-flow ratio, the harder the asset.  What about governments shutting down bitcoin, regulating it, or taxing it to death? We discuss. Bitcoin price volatility is a problem in currency adoption. Lots of energy is used in bitcoin mining. But much of it is stranded energy. Bitcoin cannot produce income. Keith Weinhold stresses his preferred way to hold bitcoin. Timestamps: Bitcoin's value proposition (00:00:01) Keith Weinhold introduces the topic of Bitcoin's value and why it is relevant to a real estate show. Jamie Dimon's criticism of Bitcoin (00:05:27) JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expresses his disdain for Bitcoin and blockchain technology in a heated conversation. Bitcoin's resistance to debasement (00:07:19) Keith Weinhold discusses the resistance of Bitcoin to debasement and the skepticism of governments and financial institutions towards it. The origin and value of Bitcoin (00:08:18) Nick Giambruno, an international investor, explains the history and value proposition of Bitcoin, emphasizing its decentralization and resistance to debasement. Bitcoin's hardness and production rate (00:14:21) Nick Giambruno delves into the concept of Bitcoin's hardness and its production requirements, comparing it to other assets like gold and real estate. Bitcoin's upcoming halving event (00:16:28) Nick Giambruno discusses the significance of Bitcoin's upcoming halving event, which will impact its stock-to-flow ratio and reinforce its value proposition. Bitcoin's scarcity (00:19:42) Bitcoin's limited supply and its unique scarcity attribute, compared to other commodities like gold. Upcoming halving event and Bitcoin ETF approval (00:20:53) Discussion on the significance of the upcoming halving event and the approval of a new spot for Bitcoin ETF, indicating the growing acceptance of Bitcoin. Bitcoin as a currency and value proposition (00:22:42) The value of Bitcoin as a currency for transferring value and its resistance to debasement, emphasizing the importance of self-custody of Bitcoin. Global adoption of Bitcoin (00:24:30) Comparison of Bitcoin adoption in different nations, highlighting the potential benefits for early adopters and the impact of Bitcoin on the world's financial landscape. Bitcoin's market potential and investment consideration (00:27:27) The potential market share of Bitcoin in the global economy and the consideration of Bitcoin as an investment asset. Government's ability to regulate Bitcoin (00:34:11) Discussion on the government's potential regulation and taxation of Bitcoin, emphasizing the power of economic incentives and Bitcoin's resilience to government intervention. Bitcoin's uniqueness and credibility (00:36:12) Differentiating Bitcoin from other cryptocurrencies, highlighting its credibility and resistance to change, making it the real innovation in the crypto space. Bitcoin as a Store of Value (00:37:55) Discussion on Bitcoin's role as a store of value and its comparison to gold. Bitcoin as an Emerging Form of Money (00:38:25) Explanation of Bitcoin as an emerging form of money and its distinction from established money like gold. Bitcoin's Transaction Network and the Lightning Network (00:39:37) Explanation of Bitcoin's transaction network, scalability, and the use of the Lightning Network for smaller transactions. Earning Income from Bitcoin (00:41:40) Discussion on earning income from Bitcoin through related companies, dividends, and caution regarding Bitcoin lending services. Bitcoin Exchanges and Custody (00:44:20) The importance of custodying your own Bitcoin and the risks associated with centralized Bitcoin exchanges. Connecting with the Guest (00:45:13) Information on how to connect with the guest and access a helpful Bitcoin guide. Bitcoin's Energy Use and Price Volatility (00:46:01) Insights into Bitcoin's energy use, price volatility, and the use of stranded energy sources by miners. Real Estate vs. Bitcoin (00:47:04) Comparison of real estate as a wealth builder with the merits and risks of owning gold and Bitcoin. Disclaimer and Conclusion (00:47:54) Disclaimer about the content and a conclusion to the episode. Resources mentioned: Show Page: GetRichEducation.com/488 More on Nick Giambruno: FinancialUnderground.com For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold   Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Why does Bitcoin have any value? And why is a real estate show dedicating one episode to this topic now? The benefits and criticisms of the world's largest cryptocurrency Bitcoin today on Get Rich Education. If you like the Get Rich Education podcast, you're going to love art. Don't quit your day. Dream newsletter. No, I here I write every word of the letter myself. It wires your mind for wealth. It helps you make money in your sleep and updates you on vital real estate investing trends. It's free. Sign up egg get rich education com slash letter. It's real content that makes a real difference in your life, spiced with a dash of humor rather than living below your means, learn how to grow your means right now. You can also easily get the letter by texting gray to 66866. Text gray to 66866.   Corey Coates (00:01:06) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold (00:01:22) - Work degree from Quito, Ecuador, where I am today, to the Mosquito Coast, Nicaragua, and across 188 nations worldwide.   Keith Weinhold (00:01:29) - You're listening. One of the United States longest running and most less than two shows on real estate investing. I'm your host, Keith Reinhold. Yes, we're a real estate show, but with 488 episodes, it's time to focus at least one of them. Finally, on Bitcoin. We'll bring it back to US real estate next week. Now, this is for a few reasons. Today, Bitcoin is largely misunderstood. It's become so big that it's hard to ignore. And there are two recent Bitcoin events two happenings with global impact that makes now the right time to cover this. Now look, I think that it's human nature that when you learn about something new for the first time and you don't understand how it works like Bitcoin, it's sort of innate to you start criticizing it or sort of discounted in your mind, chiefly because you don't understand it. Though Bitcoin's pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto wrote the Bitcoin paper in 2008 and the first Bitcoin was issued in 2009. And, you know, when I first heard about it sometime after that, I probably discounted it in my mind as well.   Keith Weinhold (00:02:45) - And I think most people that don't understand Bitcoin, you know, they first think something like, oh come on, what is this. Just magic internet money. How does that work? How could that have any value. And I think is one matures when encountering the unknown. They inquire rather than criticize it. Look now and I'm getting really personal here, aren't I? I don't do drugs and I never have. But I don't criticize those that do drugs because it's a world that I just don't understand at all. Last year I was having dinner with a couple. They asked me what book I'm currently reading, and I told them that it's a 350 page book about Bitcoin, and the response was laughter, sort of dismissing it. And they said, well, how could anyone write that many pages about Bitcoin just completely discounting the whole thing? Well, for me, a turning point on Bitcoin is when I found highly intelligent people that understood it well and they were excited about it and they endorsed it. Now real estate has more intrinsic value than the dollar or gold or Bitcoin.   Keith Weinhold (00:04:02) - Because real estate is essential to your survival. You can make arguments that the dollar, gold and Bitcoin all have questionable backing. But today enough people agree that the dollar, gold and Bitcoin all have value. People are agreeing all three gold, the dollar and Bitcoin have varying levels then of anthropogenic faith. Today you and I, we live in a digital world that's comprised of 195 world nations. Well then, shouldn't money be made of something that's digital and doesn't know any national borders? Think of Bitcoin's value proposition this way you cannot move dollars across time. That's due to inflation. You can't move gold across space that's due to weight and security. But consider this Bitcoin can be officially moved across both space and time. Its supply is absolutely fixed. At 21 million, there can never be more than 21 million bitcoin either. It's traded on the blockchain, which is basically a digital ledger, but not every intelligent or influential finance person believes in Bitcoin. Of course, not every one of them. For example, it gets a little heated here from last month.   Keith Weinhold (00:05:27) - This is one of the most powerful men in the world. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. He's getting annoyed about CNBC asking him about Bitcoin just entirely too often. What do you make of the other firms the BlackRock's of the world.   CNBC (00:05:42) - That that obviously and Larry Fink change his view of this obviously. And maybe he changed his view because you think he genuinely believes in Bitcoin or or believed it because he thinks that there's a marketplace for it and he wants to be part of that market. But what do you think of the there's about a dozen big financial companies, fidelity included.   Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase (00:05:59) - Number one I don't care. So just please stop talking about this. And and I don't know what he would say about blockchain versus currencies to do something versus Bitcoin that does nothing. And maybe that's not different than me. But you know, this is what makes a market. People have opinions. This is the last time I'm ever in state. In my opinion.   CNBC (00:06:18) - Gold really didn't do anything either.   Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase (00:06:21) - Yet because it's limited in supply.   Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase (00:06:23) - So it's and it's been used. Uh, so you think so, huh? I do think there's a good chance that when bitcoin when we get to that 20 million bitcoins 42 know that Satoshi is going to come on there laugh hysterically. Go quiet. All Bitcoin is going to be erased I think. How the hell do you know it's going to stop at 21? I've never met one person who told me they know for a fact they take that as it's not.   CNBC (00:06:44) - It hasn't happened because by the last one will be mined in 2150. And it gets harder and harder every time there's another halving. But but, Jamie, I do like looking back over.   Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase (00:06:55) - Just do what you want. I'll do what I want. Ask for gold.   CNBC (00:06:57) - You can. The six characteristics that make gold valuable for 4000 years. They're all present in Bitcoin. That's all I'm saying. I love you and I don't want to. And I also don't I don't also don't want to be a you may enjoy Joe.   Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase (00:07:08) - You may be right.   Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase (00:07:09) - Yeah. Like I don't own gold either. So okay. That's what.   CNBC (00:07:11) - I mean.   CNBC (00:07:12) - Couple of quick final question.   Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase (00:07:12) - I like to own things that pay me incomes, but it doesn't cost money to carry anyway. And it costs money to carry Bitcoin to. By the way.   Keith Weinhold (00:07:19) - Uh, that was Jamie Diamond. Now governments and banksters like Jamie Diamond, they often dislike bitcoin because it cuts out the use of their chief product, the dollar. So governments are especially hesitant to want to promote bitcoin, a lot of them in the world. Anyway, I've got a conversation with a bitcoin expert coming up. We're going to talk about its value proposition and then the criticisms. Yes, I'm in Quito today. I was last year in Ecuador two years ago, this Colorado sized nation of 18 million people. I plan to attempt climbing to the summit of a 20,000 foot mountain later in the week. As for today, let's continue with why should Bitcoin have any value? Today's guest is the founder of the Financial Underground, and he is the editor in chief of that publication.   Keith Weinhold (00:08:18) - He's a renowned international investor, and he specializes in identifying big picture geopolitical and economic trends ahead of the crowd. And you've seen him featured seemingly in everything from Forbes to the Ron Paul Liberty Report. He was a speaker at the well-known New Orleans Investment Conference as well. Hey, it's great to welcome on to gray, Nick. Jim Bruno.   Nick Giambruno (00:08:41) - Hey, Keith, great to be with you.   Keith Weinhold (00:08:43) - I think a lot of our listeners are real estate investors are going to be wondering now, why are you talking about Bitcoin on a real estate show? Actually, I think there are a few more commonalities here than what a lot of people think. What a real estate in Bitcoin have in common. They're both scarce, neither can be easily deluded, and they both take real world resources to produce more of. You could apply those same three attributes to gold. So real estate gold and bitcoin they have this scarcity. And really I think that's a wise investing theme. Go ahead and invest in what's scarce. Limit what's abundant and take zero cost to produce like dollars.   Keith Weinhold (00:09:21) - So really that's the commonality between real estate in Bitcoin. But on a real estate show, I think we have a lot of listeners that just don't have an overall common understanding. Nick, of just what is bitcoin and why does it have any value in the first place?   Nick Giambruno (00:09:37) - Well, that is a some very good observations and a very profound question. What is Bitcoin. Well, Bitcoin is a relatively new asset. However it has been decades in the making. People don't understand that Bitcoin didn't just fall out of the sky, or is some kind of accident in some mad sciences garage. This is something that has been in the the works basically since the late 70s, and it came out of the Cypherpunk movement. Now, you may have heard of these people. You may have not. The Cypherpunks are basically I find them as the good guys. They are involved in creating technologies that empower the individual and disempower the state. They are behind some of the most prominent freedom oriented technologies that you and I may take for granted, including encryption.   Nick Giambruno (00:10:27) - And that's another story in and of itself. Let me just briefly get into that, because that's what puts the crypto cryptography in cryptocurrency. Cryptography is a very important field. It's basically the method of encoding information so that only the recipient can see it. And it's very important to understand that while we take for granted the average person has access to unbreakable cryptography today, that was not always the case. Cryptography has been around since the time of the ancient Greeks, and maybe even before, but it's always been a government monopoly until very recently in terms of historical standards, when cryptography was made available to the average person. That is a very profound thing, because now the average person can secure their information and secure their online life in a way that nobody can break. The US government can't break it. Chinese government can't break it, nobody can break it. And that is very important. And that laid the foundation for Bitcoin. So what is bitcoin. It's just a summit. But it is a superior alternative to central banking.   Nick Giambruno (00:11:27) - And that is a very revolutionary thing. It basically does the job of what a central bank does but much much, much better and removes all of the corruption, all of the nastiness that goes along with central banking. So what we have here is a genuine, workable alternative to central banking, and we can get into the details of that. But if you want to look at it, what it is, that's what it is. And at the same time, it's a form of money that is not just resistant to debasement, it's totally resistant to debasement. You're talking about gold and real estate. Well, gold. What made gold money over thousands of years? Yes, it is scarce. However, I always like to use this example. There's a concept that's related to scarcity, but it's not that it was scarce. And the reason is, is think about platinum and palladium. There's actually scarcer than gold, like there are fewer ounces of platinum and palladium in the world than there are gold ounces. So why don't people use platinum and palladium as money? It's a very, very important point.   Nick Giambruno (00:12:26) - The reason is, is because the platinum and palladium supply is not resistant to debasement. So it's scarcer, but it's not resistant to debasement. What does that mean? It means the annual supply growth of platinum and palladium are basically equal to the stockpiles. So depending on what this year or next year's annual production of platinum or palladium are going to be, it can wildly swing the market. That is not true of gold. Gold is only about 1.5% growth per year. And that's very, very consistent. What does that mean? That is a very important concept. So the gold supply only grows at about 1.5% per year.   Keith Weinhold (00:13:02) - And this is basically an inflation rate.   Nick Giambruno (00:13:04) - Yes it is its inflation rate. But it's very small and nobody can really change that. Think about it. There's a. It's not as if people don't want to increase the gold supply. They would love to. The way that the gold is distributed in the world, and the cost it takes to mining it puts a really hard limit on what you can produce each year.   Nick Giambruno (00:13:22) - So that's what makes it a good store of value. And if something is not a good store of value, it's not going to be a good money. These are some very, very fundamental concepts I'm talking about because they also apply to Bitcoin.   Keith Weinhold (00:13:35) - Then when someone asked me what Bitcoin is to give it a really short definition, I call Bitcoin a global digital currency that's decentralized. And you brought up the decentralization. That's really important. That's where I can make a peer to peer payment without having to go through an intermediary where I can send my Bitcoin directly over to Nick. There was no bank involved in that transaction, for example, the decentralization of Bitcoin. But we talk more about why Bitcoin has value. I believe you began touching on it there, Nick. Bitcoin has this hardness, which is a strange term to people because Bitcoin is digital. So can you tell us more about Bitcoin's value that comes through its hardness.   Nick Giambruno (00:14:21) - Let me just touch on a quick point you made also. So simply put, the value proposition of Bitcoin is that it allows anybody, anywhere in the world to send and receive value without depending on any third party.   Nick Giambruno (00:14:32) - At the same time. It's a form of money that is 100% resistant to debasement. That's its value proposition. That's a very profound thing. So going to the hardness. Yes, hardness is a concept that a lot of people get confused. Look, I love gold, I own gold, I recommend gold chain from the gold community. And I know the gold community. So I think a lot of people in the gold community get confused around this hardness now. They think it's hard, like physically hard, like abrasive metal. That's not what art means. Hard. And in terms of a hard asset, what it means is hard to produce. That's what it means. Yeah, that's what a hard asset is. It's hard to produce. And what is the opposite of that? Something that's easy to produce. Nobody would want to store their value, store their savings, store their economic energy into something that somebody else can make with no effort, almost like, you know, oh, let's put our life savings in arcade tokens or frequent flyer miles.   Nick Giambruno (00:15:26) - It's ridiculous when you think of it in that way. But that is, in my humble opinion, the most important attribute of money is that it's hard to produce all the other attributes of money. Quite frankly, are meaningless if the money is not hard to produce. Because if it's not hard to produce, none of the other stuff matters. And that's the most crucial attribute of money.   Keith Weinhold (00:15:45) - Yes, reinforcing why we have that investing theme of invest in something that's scarce and difficult to produce and takes real world resources to produce, much like real estate does. Much like gold with all the mining and assaying and much like Bitcoin, because to produce new Bitcoin, it takes electricity, it takes hardware and it takes software, some real world resources in order to produce Bitcoin. We talk about the production rate or the inflation rate in just a couple months. Here we're coming up on something really interesting, which is really one reason why I have you on the show talking about Bitcoin now. And that is the having event, the halving being that rate of new Bitcoin issuance is cut in half every four years.   Keith Weinhold (00:16:28) - So tell us more about that and bring the stock to flow ratio into the conversation here. We're at a cusp.   Nick Giambruno (00:16:34) - Of a very important moment in monetary history. Because you can quantify the hardness of an asset. It is quantifiable. It is basically the inverse of the supply growth. And there's another way of saying that, as you mentioned, the stock to flow ratio basically. In short, you got the stockpiles. That's what's available. And then you have the flow which is like the new supply. So the higher the stock to flow, the harder the asset is and the more resistant to debasement it is. And same thing when you take the the supply growth, you want a smaller supply growth. It's just the inverse of the stock to flow. So gold has always been mankind's artist money for thousands of years and gold's stock to blow ratios about I think it's around 60 which means it takes about 60 years of current production to equal current supplies. If you look at silver, it's much less than gold.   Nick Giambruno (00:17:25) - And every other commodity is closer to one, which means that every year the new production basically equals the existing stockpiles. And that's not a very good attribute for something that you want to have as a store of value. Now, what is going to happen in this having that's coming up in around April of this year? You can quantify the stock that flow. I just told you how to quantify it. So right now Bitcoin and gold have about equal stock to flow ratios in about equal hardness. However a key feature of the Bitcoin protocol is that every four years the new Bitcoin supply issuance gets cut in half until around the year 2140, when it is just goes to zero. So Bitcoin is not only going to exceed gold's hardness in a few months, it's going to double it. Now that is a very interesting moment in monetary history because mankind has not had a harder money than gold I don't think. Ever. So this is all going to be very important and it's coming very soon in April. Late April I think is when it's going to happen.   Nick Giambruno (00:18:28) - So a very important moment in monetary history.   Keith Weinhold (00:18:31) - There is real profundity there with the stock to flow ratio of Bitcoin exceeding that of gold with the upcoming having. And if you, the listener still hung up on the stock to flow ratio, we're talking about the ratio of the existing stock, how much of this stuff already exists, whether it's real estate or gold or Bitcoin divided by the rate of new issuance. So the higher the stock to flow ratio, and as it has the greater hardness it has. And currently 900 new bitcoins per day are being produced. And the having means just what it sounds like in April that will drop to 450 new bitcoins being mined into existence each day. So really you can think of Bitcoin as being disinflationary. It will continue to inflate until the year 2140. Like Nick described. That's when new bitcoin will cease to be mined. And until that point, the new amount the flow continues to get halved. Every four years, there will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin that exist, and 19.6 million of those have already been mined.   Keith Weinhold (00:19:36) - So you can get an idea of the hardness and how this helps supply the value of Bitcoin.   Nick Giambruno (00:19:42) - Well, absolutely. And it's he talks about that. I think it's something like 93% of the time, supply has already been mined, and the remaining 7% are going to come online over the next 120 years or so. You might want to get some before other people figure this out. There is definitely not enough Bitcoin for every millionaire to have one bitcoin, it's far less. I think there's something maybe 50 million millionaires in the world, probably more. They can't all have a bitcoin. It's a very tight supply and we have a situation here too that is related. Because Bitcoin is the only asset, the only commodity were higher prices cannot induce more supply. If gold went to 10,000, you can be sure there are going to be more gold miners getting into the business, more economic deposits being found and and exploited and more supply eventually coming on to the market. Great point. And the same is true for every commodity.   Nick Giambruno (00:20:38) - Gold is just the most resistant to that process. However, Bitcoin, no matter how high the price goes, it cannot induce the production of more Bitcoin. That's a very unique scarcity attribute that I don't think people really appreciate very much. It's certainly there.   Keith Weinhold (00:20:53) - So this upcoming halving event is one reason why I'm having Nick on the show now to do our first ever Bitcoin episode in almost 500 episodes. And the other reason is the nation see of the SEC approving a new spot to Bitcoin ETF. And all that basically means is it helps give everyday investors really easy access to Bitcoin without having to set up a crypto wallet and bam, hey, your mom can become a crypto bro now.   Nick Giambruno (00:21:22) - It is certainly a milestone in acceptance. I think it signifies that Bitcoin is no longer a fringe. It's here to stay. It took over ten years for the SEC to approve one of these things. I think the Winklevoss twins applied over ten years ago for the first Bitcoin ETF, so they reluctantly did it. I don't think they want it to do it.   Nick Giambruno (00:21:43) - I think they lost a couple of key court cases that kind of forced their hand, but they did approve it. I frankly don't recommend the ETFs. It's not really Bitcoin because what you have is a Bitcoin IOU, several Bitcoin IOUs. So let's say you buy the Blackrock Bitcoin ETF. Will you have an IOU from your broker for the Blackrock ETF share. And the broker has an IOU from Blackrock. And then Blackrock has an IOU from Coinbase which actually holds the Bitcoin. So I always tell people look it's a spectrum. If you want to take that trade off and you're taking a trade off for convenience over a security and sovereignty, if you want to take that trade off, that's go right ahead. But be have your eyes wide open and be conscious of the trade off that you're making. I always prefer to, uh, tell people Bitcoin is unique. This is a bearer asset. People forget about bearer assets. Bearer assets are a very good thing. They give the people who hold them ownership over them.   Nick Giambruno (00:22:42) - I think people who are interested in sovereignty. One thing too that's very important is that even if the Bitcoin price stays flat forever, it doesn't go up at all. It still offers people tremendous value as what we were talking about before, even if it stays flat and doesn't go up ever again, it's still offers anybody, anywhere in the world the ability to send and receive value from anybody else, anywhere in the world, and to hold money that's resistant to debasement, that's hugely valuable, even if the price doesn't go up. So and you can only get those benefits if you hold Bitcoin properly in your own bitcoin wallet, where you control the keys and only you control the keys, because that's who has ownership to this. Bitcoin is by who controls those private keys. You can just kind of think of that like the password dear Bitcoin. So that's what you want to do. If you can learn how to drive a car you can learn how to self-custody Bitcoin.   Keith Weinhold (00:23:33) - I love what you did there, Nick, because what you helped us do is you helped us transition from talking about Bitcoin as an investment asset to using bitcoin as a currency, if you wish to use it to transfer value.   Keith Weinhold (00:23:47) - Really, Nick, I think a lot of people in the United States, one reason that they're not that interested in Bitcoin is because our currency, our United States dollar, it sure has problems. It sure recently went through a big wave of inflation, but our currency just is not as bad as some of these worthless pieces of paper have been in the Argentine currency or in Turkey or in Iran or Haiti. So maybe Americans don't have enough of a reason to want to go ahead and get a currency that holds its value. So what are your thoughts with what people in other nations are doing, including El Salvador, with immediate legal tender versus the United States, where we have this dollar that's being debased but just not quite at the rate of most other world nations.   Nick Giambruno (00:24:30) - That's a good point. I see this in my travels around the world. It may seem like an advantage for the Americans, but I think it's a disadvantage because they're going to be catch on to this last because they're going to have, oh, we've got the dollar.   Nick Giambruno (00:24:43) - The dollar's great. So why do I need to look at other alternatives. And and they're going to be the last people. So you're going to have I think what you could see over this the next few years, and certainly over the longer term, is that countries like El Salvador, the countries that are experiencing the highest rates of inflation now and are thus more motivated to look at a superior form of money like Bitcoin or gold, but a lot of them are going to Bitcoin. These are going to be the countries that might fare better over the long term, because they're going to be relatively early adopters in this superior monetary technology. Nobody takes a horse and buggy from New York to California anymore. No, you don't need to because you have airplanes, you have cars, superior technologies for transportation. And likewise, we now have a superior technology for money, which is to say storing and exchanging value. That's all money is. People think it's all confusing. You need a PhD and there's all these charts and confusing jargon.   Nick Giambruno (00:25:38) - Money is not confusing. It's actually intuitive and anybody in the world can understand it. It's just something that stores and exchanges value. It's really quite simple. So now we have a superior technology for storing and exchanging value. And I think people who adopt it first are going to reap the most benefits. There are a lot of Americans who have adopted it, but they have been spoiled by the fact that the dollar has been the world's reserve currency. Now, I think that's going away. That's a whole other story. I think that's the two big reasons why, you know, you shouldn't just depend on the dollar one. We can talk. This is a whole new discussion about the dollar as the world reserve currency. I think it's going away. But now despite that we also have a superior alternative with Bitcoin. So yeah, I think the people who are going to adopt this technology sooner are going to reap the most benefits.   Keith Weinhold (00:26:24) - Well, Nick, in your opinion, is Bitcoin's takeover inevitable and how does that look?   Nick Giambruno (00:26:30) - I don't think anything's inevitable.   Nick Giambruno (00:26:32) - I think it's a good that I mean, if I thought it was inevitable, I would sell everything and buy it. I have a more diversified portfolio, but I have a strong conviction in it, very strong conviction in it. But nothing is certain. Nothing's 100%. So I never tell people, you know, and I'm not giving anybody any investment advice. I'm not a registered investment advisor or anything like that. But in any case, even if I was, I wouldn't tell anybody to go all in on anything. And that's certainly not how I manage my risk. However, I do have a very high conviction in it, and I think as it stands now, it has an excellent chance at gaining huge market share in the market for money. And people don't think of money as a market, like a real estate market or a technology market, or the market for any industry. But money is a market. It's probably the biggest market. And I think Bitcoin is you need to put it into perspective, the market cap of all the gold in the entire world is about $13.7 trillion.   Nick Giambruno (00:27:27) - The market cap for all Bitcoin in the world, last I checked, is around $850 billion. So we're less than 10% of gold's market cap. It has. And that's not even including all the fiat currencies. All the fiat currencies have a much larger market cap than even gold. So Bitcoin is just a blip on people's radars. So I think it has a lot of upside from here.   Keith Weinhold (00:27:46) - One important question an investor can ask themselves once they learn more about Bitcoin is, can I really afford to have absolutely none? You're listening to get reciprocation. We're talking with Nick Bruno of the Financial Underground Warren. We come back when now we've talked about the upside of Bitcoin. Let's talk about a lot of the criticisms you're listening to get rejection I'm your host Keith Weiner. Role. Under this a specific expert with income property, you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS for 256. In gray history, from beginners to veterans, they provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's.   Keith Weinhold (00:28:29) - Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W2 jobs income. They've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six.   Keith Weinhold (00:29:52) - This is Richard Duncan, publisher of Macro Watch. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Winchell. And don't quit your day dream. You're listening to SOS created more financial freedom for busy people just like you than nearly any show in the world. This is jet versus cash, and I'm your host, Keith Whitehall. We're talking with the Financial Underground's Nick Bruno. We're talking about Bitcoin in a dedicated episode for the first time ever here in the history of the show. And when we had a chance to talk to Nick Bruno, you can see why we wanted to do this. But, Nick, a lot of people in the United States are concerned that the US government might do something similar to what China did and just go ahead and shut down Bitcoin and shut down cryptocurrency because Bitcoin, it basically competes with the US government's product, the dollar. So what are your thoughts when people say, oh I don't know about that. The government can just shut Bitcoin down.   Nick Giambruno (00:30:53) - I'm glad you mentioned China because the communist governor of China is a very powerful governments.   Nick Giambruno (00:30:58) - It's one of the most powerful and maybe arguably the most powerful government in the world. And they've tried many times to ban Bitcoin. You know how it turned out. It was a total failure because Bitcoin is basically code in its mathematics. So it's not the easiest thing to ban even if they wanted to ban it. You're trying to ban mathematics because that's all Bitcoin is. And further many Bitcoin wallets and it all works on cryptography. As and as I said, cryptography is just advanced mathematics. Many Bitcoin wallets have a way to back up your funds a 12 word phrase. So if you can memorize well words, which represents your wallet, you can potentially store billions of dollars just in your head. Now this is how are you going to ban that? You can't ban that. It's completely impractical. I always tell people, you know, look at how governments have tried to ban cannabis. Everybody has been able to buy cannabis in any city they wanted to. And then also other countries have tried to ban US dollars.   Nick Giambruno (00:31:57) - Argentina tries to ban U.S. dollars, Venezuela tries to ban U.S. dollars. You know what it does? It creates nothing. But an underground market doesn't extinguish people's desire to have dollars. And I think that's what we have here. I think economic incentives are more powerful than governments. And aside from that, I don't think that's going to happen because what they approve all these ETFs, that they were just going to turn around and ban it? I don't think so. Further, you have lots of court cases. There is established federal court cases that have ruled that computer code, which Bitcoin is just computer code, is equivalent to free speech protected under the First amendment of the US Constitution. Oh yes, I understand the Constitution is not people can change it and it's malleable. But still, that complicates any government's desire to ban it. They're going to have to overturn those federal court cases. That's not going to be easy. And even if they do, how are you going to ban something that somebody can just memorize with 12 words written on a piece of paper or in their head, it's completely impractical.   Nick Giambruno (00:32:58) - And then, of course, you have the example of China, which has banned Bitcoin several times. You know what? Absolutely nothing happened. But Bitcoin business is moving out of China and Bitcoin adoption among regular Chinese people going up. They can hinder businesses and large like entities that have big presences. They can hinder that certainly. But Bitcoin is global. It'll just go where it's treated best. It's like water. It'll just move to wherever it's treated best. I always say this too. So even if like the northern hemisphere disappeared, let's say there's an all out nuclear war between Russia and the US that will basically wipe out the northern hemisphere. You know what? Bitcoin won't miss a beat in the southern hemisphere. It'll still keep going in the southern hemisphere because it is decentralized and un over tens of thousands of computers around the world. And if even one of those computers survives Bitcoin lives on. So I think this is a very, very hard I wouldn't want to be trying to ban this thing because it's not practical.   Keith Weinhold (00:33:56) - Other critics say, all right, if the government can't ban it, well, the government can just then allow it make it be legal, but they can regulate the heck out of it and they can tax it at really high rates. What are your thoughts there?   Nick Giambruno (00:34:11) - Well, the government can do whatever it wants, but I think, yes, it can do all of those things. But I think here's the main point is that Bitcoin is we talked about economic incentives. Economic incentives are more powerful than politicians. And I think that's a truism. So as more people become holders of bitcoin aware of bitcoin, I don't think restricting bitcoin or banning bitcoin or adding regulations to Bitcoin or adding taxation to it, I don't think that's going to help anybody win an election. Is that going to help anybody win an election? I don't think so. That would be extremely politically unpopular. Yeah, that could happen. It would be bad news for the people who live in that jersey. But you know what? It's not going to kill bitcoin.   Nick Giambruno (00:34:52) - It's going to just be a hindrance for the people who live under these Luddite politicians who would do such a thing. But I don't think they're going to do such a thing. They just approve the ETF. I think Bitcoin has reached escape velocity in terms of its political popularity. I don't think anybody is going to win an election by being tough on Bitcoin.   Keith Weinhold (00:35:11) - A number of congresspeople hold bitcoin, Cynthia Loomis being one of the more prominent ones. And then you and I talked about the SEC spot Bitcoin ETF approval earlier. Well, that's a bit of a de facto stamp of approval on bitcoin really in a sense. And I think another criticism Nick, in my opinion this is easy to dispel. But some people will say, well, there are tens of thousands of cryptocurrencies out there. This stuff's just junk. There's something like hump coin that a prominent rapper promotes. I mean, all this stuff is just a bunch of junk. When all these cryptocurrencies come out. And I tend to think that's very different than Bitcoin.   Keith Weinhold (00:35:50) - Just like if there's some new stock IPO with zero fundamentals that comes out, I mean that doesn't diminish blue chippers like Apple or Microsoft at all. So I think of Bitcoin as the first or one of the first cryptocurrencies with a finite supply. So these overnight fly by night new cryptos I don't think that's really a very good criticism of Bitcoin.   Nick Giambruno (00:36:12) - No, I think this is one of the most popular misconceptions is that there is this crypto asset class and that Bitcoin is just one of 20,000 cryptocurrencies. And I think this is transparently false. It's like saying, oh, you know an increase in the pyrite supply is going to, you know, dilute the gold or something right. So it's kind of ridiculous. And the reason behind this is very simple. Bitcoin is the only one that nobody controls. Nobody can change bitcoin. It's the only one that is like that from Ethereum which is number two on down. They can be changed. A group of people can get together and change it. And in fact, Ethereum's monetary policy has been changed more often than the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.   Nick Giambruno (00:36:54) - It's just instead of the FOMC getting together and deciding what we should do with the money supply, it's a group of Ethereum developers and insiders that get together and change it. And the same thing is true of every other cryptocurrency. So that's the very defining feature of Bitcoin is that nobody can change it. That's what makes it interesting. If somebody could change Bitcoin, it wouldn't be interesting. And we don't need to get into the weeds of that. But needless to say, Bitcoin is the only one where the supply has credibility. We all know the bitcoin supply is 21 million. Nobody can do anything to change that. What is the Bitcoin supply going to be in five years? I could tell you with precision what it will be in five years. I can tell you with precision what it'll be in ten years. And you tell me what the Ethereum supply is going to be in five years. Can you tell me what the supply is going to be in ten years? You tell me what any cryptocurrency aside from Bitcoin supply is going to be in five years.   Nick Giambruno (00:37:41) - No you can't because it depends on how the developers are going to change it. So it's quite ridiculous to lump these two things together. They're entirely separate. Crypto is a cesspool. Quite frankly. Bitcoin is the real innovation.   Keith Weinhold (00:37:55) - And immutable protocol as they call it. Nick, I think one criticism is to pull back. We all know that money is three things. It's a store of value. It's a medium of exchange and it's a unit of account. And a lot of people say, I don't think Bitcoin can be a legitimate currency because all people do is store it. So it might meet the store of value criterion of those three. But I don't know about its legitimacy as a currency. Does that matter? I mean, people kind of use gold as a store of value, but not a currency. What are your thoughts?   Nick Giambruno (00:38:25) - Yes, it does matter. And it's a good question. The answer is is Bitcoin is not an established money. Take gold for example. Gold has been around for thousands of years.   Nick Giambruno (00:38:34) - It is an established form of money. Bitcoin is an emerging form of money. It's a very big distinction. So I personally think the way this will go and you know people disagree. But I think just logically, if you look at it, yes, story of value comes first. Why. Because once people store their value in Bitcoin, the monetary network of people who will be willing to exchange that bitcoin for something else grows and you can't have one before the other in terms of like nobody's going to exchange bitcoin if they're not already storing bitcoin. So the more people that store bitcoin have it available to exchange it for other people, it's like a network effect, any kind of network effect. That's a monetary network effect. And that's time to build further Bitcoin related misunderstanding is you kind of view Bitcoin in a different lens than just paying for like a cup of coffee, because that's really not what it's made for. The Bitcoin network has a hard limit on the number of transactions that I can process every day in order to keep it decentralized, because if it processed everybody's coffee transaction, you would need huge data centers to run the Bitcoin software.   Nick Giambruno (00:39:37) - The matter is, is that the Bitcoin software needs to be decentralized. So right now, anybody who has an average laptop, an average Raspberry Pi can run Bitcoin. That is very important for its decentralization. And if you were putting everybody's retail transaction on the Bitcoin blockchain would be impossible. You need large data centers. Now does that mean Bitcoin can't scale to become a medium of exchange? Absolutely not. You have to just think of bitcoin. What is a Bitcoin transaction represents. It represents final international settlement and clearance. So it's more akin to an international wire transfer. You wouldn't pay for a cup of coffee with from a Swiss bank account to Starbucks in New York. That's basically what you're talking about. What you do is you build layers. There are different layers that are built on top of that bedrock, which is the Bitcoin network that is immutable, unchangeable, and then you build transaction networks on top of that. So what we have with Bitcoin, the most prominent one right now is called the Lightning Network, which is another network that's built on top of Bitcoin that is really more suitable for smaller day to day coffee transactions.   Nick Giambruno (00:40:43) - You can actually send about 1/32 of a penny over lightning. So you can do all sorts of micro-transactions. Very interesting. So that's akin to, you know, like a credit card or a credit card is kind of like a layer two network that's built on top of central banks, which do international clearing and settling, and credit cards are built on top of that. And you can think of the same kind of solutions that are going to be built on Bitcoin. You're going to have different layers for different applications. And in terms of these medium of exchange and transaction network in Bitcoin it's the Lightning Network. And it's very exciting to use.   Keith Weinhold (00:41:19) - Yeah the Lightning Network it's been around for a while. It's been getting more adoption to help promote payments through Bitcoin. Being a real estate investing show here, oftentimes our listeners are interested in buying a property that will produce income from a tenant that's in that property. Can Bitcoin produce income?   Nick Giambruno (00:41:40) - Bitcoin itself cannot produce income because it's just simply money. It's simply an asset in the same sense that gold doesn't produce income.   Nick Giambruno (00:41:47) - If you want to earn income from Bitcoin, invest in Bitcoin related companies and Bitcoin related businesses that pay dividends. There are some and there is going to be many more. There are Bitcoin mining companies. These are companies I specialize in covering. In my financial research. They're relatively new. They don't pay dividends yet, but there are several that are looking to establish dividends. You can also lend your bitcoin I mean that's not bitcoin giving you a yield. That's you earning a yield from lending your bitcoin. I would caution you because there's been a lot of these kinds of bitcoin lending services that have gone bankrupt. BlockFi Celsius I'd be. And so whenever I hear about Bitcoin yields I caution people to be not just vigilant, be double vigilant of how you would normally be because there's been so many scams in this area and bad companies that have gone bankrupt. Taking advantage of people looking to earn a yield on their bitcoin. It's really a nascent industry. And you know what? Look at Bitcoin's compounded annual growth rate over any period of time for years.   Nick Giambruno (00:42:50) - You don't need a yield. It's going up if the trends continue. And I always tell people if you're going to invest in Bitcoin, have at least a four year time horizon, because that's a long time horizon. But the reason is, is because that gives you through one halving cycle, these having cycles go every four years. It's almost impossible. There's maybe a couple of instances, a couple of days where the bitcoin price wasn't higher than it was four years ago. So I always tell people have a four year time horizon when you're dealing with Bitcoin. And when you look at the returns, that could be possible. And I think the pastor. Returns. Past performance doesn't guarantee anything in the future, but I think that being said, we can expect this cycle to be similar to the other cycles. When you see that kind of potential, it should really make you not interested in these yield products.   Keith Weinhold (00:43:39) - You mentioned a couple of bankrupt crypto exchanges there, BlockFi and Celsius. I got caught up in some of that.   Keith Weinhold (00:43:48) - Now I keep all of mine on a hard wallet because really what these exchanges do is they're centralize something that's supposed to be decentralized like Bitcoin, and it gives Bitcoin a really bad name. Nick, I had some people reach out to me when FTX imploded and people said, this proves that Bitcoin is a scam. And I had to gently explain to people, whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa. Just because Wells Fargo or Chase fails. We didn't say the dollar failed. It wasn't a failure in Bitcoin. It was a failure in these exchanges.   Nick Giambruno (00:44:20) - Oh, yes. This has been going on for a long time. And before FTX, there's Mt. Gox. There's a lot of these things. So I think the underlying lesson here in all of these examples is that don't trust third parties. And with Bitcoin you don't need to trust their authorities because if you can learn to custody your own Bitcoin, you are totally responsible, totally in control of your destiny. You don't have to worry about one of these bitcoin companies going bankrupt because you hold it and only you hold it.   Nick Giambruno (00:44:48) - And I think that's what makes it special.   Keith Weinhold (00:44:51) - This has been a great chat and I think a really good Bitcoin 101 for a person that still doesn't understand very much about it. And you help people understand Bitcoin, you do an awful lot of other things, including informing people about global trends and macroeconomics. So if someone wants to connect with you and learn more from you, what's the best way for them to do that?   Nick Giambruno (00:45:13) - The best place is Financial Underground Comm. I have a really helpful Bitcoin guide that shows people how to use it in the most sovereign and the most private ways possible, and I keep that guide up to date with the current best practices, because these things change very frequently. Like what is the best wallet, what is the best hardware wallet, and so forth. So I keep this guide alive with the best current practices. I think that would be a big help for people. Could definitely save them many, many hours of time by simply just identifying today's best practices. So I think that would be very helpful.   Nick Giambruno (00:45:45) - You can find all that at Financial underground.com.   Keith Weinhold (00:45:49) - Nick Bruno has been super informative. Thanks so much for coming on to the show.   Nick Giambruno (00:45:54) - Thank you Keith, great to be with you.   Keith Weinhold (00:46:01) - Another Bitcoin criticism is its energy use. Oh, look at all the electricity that mining consumes. What a waste. But the more you learn, you find that Bitcoin miners, they often use stranded energy sources that might not get used otherwise. In fact, miners have an economic incentive to use stranded and low cost energy. Volatility in Bitcoin's price has been a real problem if you want to use it as a currency. The price for one Bitcoin peaked at almost $70,000 in late 2021, and just a year later it was under 16 K, and now the price has swelled up a lot again from that recent low. In any case, if you choose to own Bitcoin or any other crypto, please store it on a cold wallet for security. It's a small device. It's about three times the size of a thumb drive. It looks like a thumb drive, and there is a learning curve that you have to meet in order to use one.   Keith Weinhold (00:47:04) - I don't own much gold or bitcoin, just a little. They both have their merits and risks like we've discussed. I'm a real estate guy. Even most gold and bitcoin proponents that I've talked with seem to agree with me that real estate is the proven wealth builder. I'm not sure if we'll ever devote another episode to Bitcoin here. I hope that today's episode at least equipped you to ask better questions, in case you want to know more about it. Today's episode had a more international than usual feel. Bitcoin has no boundaries. I'm in Ecuador and our guest Nick joined us from Argentina today. I'll be back in the US next week when I have some really important real estate trends to tell you about. Until then, I'm Keith Reinhold. Don't quit your daydream.   Speaker 7 (00:47:54) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss.   Speaker 7 (00:48:09) - The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold (00:48:22) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

Get our newsletter free here or text “GRE” to 66866. Are you curious about the direction of rents and property prices?  In this episode of Get Rich Education, host Keith Weinhold dives into the absolute 100% certainty of a housing crash and how mortgage rates affect home prices.  Keith is interviewed by Ken McElroy. He also shares the importance of real estate in reducing taxes and increasing income.  Keith discusses the attractive pricing and inflation in Ohio, and the benefits of investing in new build properties.  He even touches on the increasing gold purchases by central banks and the potential impact on personal finances.  Don't miss out on these valuable insights and learn about the prospects for a housing crash. Tune in now! Title [00:01:37] Advertisement for Freedom Family Investments An advertisement for Freedom Family Investments and the benefits of investing in real estate. Title [00:02:00] Introduction to Get Rich Education Keith White introduces the podcast episode and talks about the longevity and popularity of the show. Title [00:03:54] Real Estate Price Gains Since the Start of the Pandemic Keith White discusses the cumulative home price appreciation in different regions since February 2020. Title [00:12:33] Discussion on the attractiveness of real estate pricing and the impact on renters. Title [00:15:08] Keith's personal experience of starting with a fourplex and the concept of house hacking. Title [00:19:38] Exploring the house hack model as a solution to affordability issues and leveraging other people's money for real estate investment. Title [00:22:12] Investing Out of State The speaker discusses the benefits of investing in real estate out of state and the importance of choosing the right market and team. Title [00:24:58] Importance of Prioritizing Market and Team The speaker emphasizes the importance of prioritizing the market and team before considering the property in real estate investing. Title [00:27:19] Supply Crash vs Price Crash The speaker explains the significance of the housing supply crash that occurred in April 2020 and how it affects property prices and homelessness. Title [00:31:51] Inflation Measurement Challenges Discussion on the difficulty of accurately measuring inflation due to various factors such as personal preferences and hedonic adjustments. Title [00:34:05] Housing's Impact on Inflation and Interest Rates Exploration of the significant contribution of housing to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and its implications for future interest rate changes. Title [00:35:38] Paradox of Rising Mortgage Rates and Home Prices Explanation of the counterintuitive relationship between rising mortgage rates and increasing home prices, with historical data supporting this trend. Title [00:42:28] Advantages of Investing in New Build Properties Discussion on why it makes more sense now to look at new build properties than in the recent past. Title [00:43:49] Feasibility of Building vs Buying in Different Markets Comparison of the cost per unit for acquiring existing properties versus building new ones in different markets. Title [00:46:28] Turnkey Rental Properties and Scarcity as an Investment Theme Exploration of the concept of turnkey rental properties and the importance of investing in scarce assets like real estate, gold, and bitcoin. Topic 1: Central banks buying gold [00:51:38] Discussion on how central banks are buying gold as a way to store value and hedge against the inflation and debasement of the US dollar. Topic 2: Increasing geopolitical uncertainty and gold [00:52:36] Exploration of how geopolitical events, such as trade agreements and conflicts, have led to increased uncertainty and a rise in the price of gold. Topic 3: Reasons why home prices won't crash [00:56:46] Explanation of several reasons why home prices are unlikely to crash, including a shortage of homes, strict lending guidelines, government intervention to prevent foreclosures, and the slowing of new home construction due to higher interest rates. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: www.GetRichEducation.com/456 Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Find cash-flowing Jacksonville property at: www.JWBrealestate.com/GRE Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold   Complete episode transcript:   Speaker 1 (00:00:01) - Welcome to Get Rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, with a crucial update on the direction of rents and property prices. Then a discussion between Ken McElroy and I where I posit to his audience about why a housing crash is 100% certain and why what mortgage rates do to home prices is exactly the opposite of what everyone thinks. And more today on Get Rich Education. Taxes are your biggest expense. The best way to reduce your burden is real estate. Increase your income with amazing returns and reduce your taxable income with real estate write offs. As an employee with a high salary, you're devastated by taxes. Lighten your tax burden. With real estate incentives, you can offset your income from a W-2 job and from capital gains freedom. Family Investments is the experience partner you've been looking for. The Real Estate Insider Fund is that vehicle. This fund invests in real estate projects that make an impact, and you can join with as little as $50,000. Insiders get preferred returns of 10 to 12%. This means you get paid first.   Speaker 1 (00:01:08) - Insiders enjoy cash flow on a quarterly basis, and the tax benefits are life changing. Join the Freedom Family and become a real estate insider. Start on your path to financial freedom through passive income. Text Family to 66866. This is not a solicitation and is for accredited investors only. Please text family to 66866 for complete details.   Speaker 2 (00:01:37) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world.   Speaker UU (00:01:44) - This is Get rich education.   Speaker 1 (00:02:00) - Working from Hot Springs, Arkansas, to Palm Springs, California, and across 188 nations worldwide. You're listening to one of America's longest-running and most listened to shows on real estate. This is Get Rich Education. I'm your host and my name is Keith Weinhold. And with 456 weekly episodes, you probably know that by now. Hey, I'm really grateful that you're here. Carefully chosen buy and hold Real estate is not day trading. Rather it is decade trading. Yeah. I'm a decade trader. Perhaps you're one two. You just haven't thought of it that way before.   Speaker 1 (00:02:41) - When I was recently with Ken McElroy in person in his studio in Scottsdale, Arizona, we produced a terrific media interview and conversation together that I'm going to share with you later today. But first, you know, it's not just you're out of control. Trader Joe's grocery bill. The entire world seems to be losing its battle with inflation. U.S inflation is still double where the powers that be want it. The UK recently stunned markets will need jacked up interest rates a half point to the highest level in 15 years. The ECB, Australia, Canada, Switzerland and Norway. They have all announced recent rate hikes. But Turkey Turkey is raising rates and astounding. 6.5%. Yeah, you heard that right. 6.5% all in one fell swoop. That's how much interest rates are going up there. Yet many say that it's not enough for them to get on top of their wildly out of control inflation. Now, let's get into a few real estate numbers here before my fantastic chat with real estate influencer in Great Guy Ken McElroy.   Speaker 1 (00:03:54) - Now here's a great set of real estate numbers since inflation has hit real estate too. Okay, we'll talk about rents in a moment, but let's talk price first with credit to John Burns, Real Estate Consulting. Let's look at American real estate price gains since the start of the pandemic. Okay. So this is not annual. This is cumulative starting in February of 2020 up to today. Here we go. There is a national home price appreciation figure and then it's broken into ten regions. And I think this regional breakup is kind of quirky, and I'll tell you why in a moment. But nationally, since the start of the pandemic, national real estate is up 36%. But let's stop and think about what that means for a moment. Well, since that time, February 2020, which is when these figures are all tracked back to, has the real rate of inflation also been 36%? I'll just say that the answer is yes. Well, then real estate has no inflation adjusted gain in all that time.   Speaker 1 (00:05:03) - Well, here are the ten regions cumulative gain since that time. Okay. Going from lowest to highest, Northern California is up 27%. The Northeast up 29%. The northwest is up 32%. Southern California up 33% cumulatively since that time, about three and a half years here. The Midwest is also up 33%. The Southwest up 38%. Texas up 40%. The Southeast up 46%. North Florida up 50%. A lot of castle markets there in north Florida, too. And the top appreciating region, according to this stat set since February of 2020 with 56% cumulative home price appreciation is South Florida. Yeah, up 56%. And now some of those regions mentioned like in the West, they were actually up more than this a few months ago and they've given back a little bit of their gain. But that is a great stat set. The only thing that seems quirky about the methodology to me is that you've got Florida and California, each with two stat sets, yet the entire Northeast is lumped in together without, say, breaking out New England.   Speaker 1 (00:06:26) - But I don't know, There might be a reason for the odd amalgamations there. I might look into that. Maybe that's just some regional bias or some concern there. Since I am a Northeastern guy, I think that by now, any long time listener knows that I'm from Pennsylvania and have lived most of my life there. I'm in Pennsylvania every year and I like to avoid hot summers, so I spend my summertime and more time in Anchorage. AK So fantastic home price appreciation in the past three and a half years, partially demand driven. Partially inflation driven, you know, three plus years ago, a lot of people, but never me, a lot of people, including real estate influencers, they said that the pandemic would be awful for both real estate and stocks because people would lose their jobs and lose their homes and businesses would shut down. Oh, no. We talked here about agree with it or not, the government's safety net is on its way and it came with the PPE and the Cares Act and everything else.   Speaker 1 (00:07:29) - I mean, Biden won't let people lose their homes. That's what was going on back then. And then in late 2021, I stated Jerry's National Home Appreciation forecast that home prices would rise between 9 and 10% in 2022. They ended up rising 10.2%. And then you remember that late last year I forecast that there really wouldn't be much of any national home price movement this year. Okay, 0%. I am on record right here on the show saying that then and here we are near the year's midpoint. And I like how that forecast is looking. And it was interesting. Late last year, Realtor.com, they predicted 5.4% national home price appreciation for this year. Well, just last week they revised it down to a drop of 6/10 of 1%. Okay. So basically they've gone to 0% as well, much like I forecast late last year. But of course in our core investor areas of the inland in the south, home prices, they are rising just a little this year. What about rents? That's something you might care about more.   Speaker 1 (00:08:42) - CoreLogic They tell us that rents for both single family homes and apartments are up 4% year over year, and that's really unremarkable. That's just the historic long term norm. And it's really been interesting how the rent growth rate for single family homes and apartments has just been remarkably similar, like shadowing each other. But the real story is that rent growth has really decelerated because national rent growth, it peaked at about 14% a year and a half ago. And now among Single-family rental homes, what you'd expect in inflation is happening. High end property rents are up just 2% because they're the least affordable. And then the more affordable low end rents are up 6%. And like anatomy, there are so many ways to parse real estate. There are so many ways to dissect the frog here. So let's look at rental growth by region. And it's from that chart that I shared with you in last week's Don't Quit Your Daydream Letter. Rents are down 2% in the West. They are up 1%. In the South. They're up 5% in the Midwest and they're up 5% in the Northeast as well.   Speaker 1 (00:10:02) - And what's been persistently steadiest is the Midwest price growth in rent growth. I mean, they're in the Midwest. That is like as stable as the clover honey that's in your pantry right now. And also, did you know that honey is the only food that doesn't spoil? Did you know that? Yes. Yeah. It's also stable, so it doesn't need mixing either. Stable like Midwestern real estate. And that's the reason that's had that best ratio of high rents to a low purchase price, which is really that key metric that you care about as a real estate investor. Now, for example, let's take a look at this specific property in Exact Street address from Marketplace. I mean, this is a great example. This is 224 Baltimore Street in Middletown, Ohio. Middletown is between Cincinnati and Dayton. Okay. This duplex here has a monthly rent income of $1,400 total from both sides. The price is $139,900. And this duplex is substantially rehabbed. And the $1,400 rent that's broken down by $800 comes from the two bed one bath side and $600 from the one bed, one bath side.   Speaker 1 (00:11:26) - The duplex is 1680 eight square feet. It's in a classy neighborhood and the rental status is that both sides are already leased. Okay, So when you have an existing property like this, sometimes you have that as the advantage. It's leased and on a duplex when you have both sides leased, you know what questions I would want to know before I buy a duplex like this? What is the rent payment history of those tenants on each side of the duplex and where are they employed? I mean, one might have been paying the rent. But if they're employed at the malls, pop up, stand for 4th of July fireworks or something, Well, I would want to know that. Or if their employment is more stable than something like that. So this 140 duplex is something you could buy with a 25% down payment. So even with closing costs, you're in there for under 50 K. So yes, they're in America's seventh most populous state of Ohio and might take on a property like this. Is that this duplex that's for you? If you're more interested in cash flow than you are appreciation.   Speaker 1 (00:12:33) - I mean, my gosh does pricing like this almost make you feel like inflation missed Ohio? That's how it feels in hey, that's what attracts renters as well. And you can find their property in more like them, including an increasing proportion of new build property nationwide from Florida to Indiana to Texas to utah@marketplace.com. Coming up in this interview with Ken, where I was a guest on his show, you're going to hear me say some things that you might have heard me say before, but I sort of say them in a different way when someone else sees interviewing me and I talk about including why there is a 100% certainty of a housing crash in a few other surprising things. And then at the end I discuss some new things that I have not discussed previously, including what I personally champion and invest in myself outside of real estate. We don't run with the herd on the mainland, but you know, here in Jerry, we are not an island to ourselves either because the dust from the herd affects us. Our investing philosophy is on a profitable, I suppose, peninsula, if you will.   Speaker 1 (00:13:48) - That's why I definitely say things that you don't expect to hear in this interview. And you know what? If someone only says what you expected to hear, that would probably be a disappointment and a waste of your time and you wouldn't learn anything. A critical real estate conversation between Ken McElroy and I, straight ahead. I'm Keith Reinhold. You're listening to Get Rich Education. With real estate capital Jacksonville. Real estate has outperformed the stock market by 44% over the last 20 years. It's proven to be a more stable asset, especially during recessions. Their vertically integrated strategy has led to 79% more home price appreciation compared to the average Jacksonville investor since 2013. Genevieve is ready to help your money make money and to make it easy for everyday investors. Get started at GWB Real estate. Agree That's GWB Real estate. Agree. Jerry listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056. They've provided our tribe with more loans than anyone. They're truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four plex.   Speaker 1 (00:15:08) - So start your prequalification and you can chat with President Charlie Ridge personally, though even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Group. This is Richard Duncan, publisher and Macro Watch. Listen to get rich education with cheap wine and don't quit your day drinks. Hey, everybody. I'm here with Keith Reinhold. Welcome back. Hey, it's so good to be here. It's interesting. I was last here in January of 2021. And remember, Ken, that's when we talked about how you can profit from inflation. Inflation was only 1.5% back then. So for all the viewers and listeners, had they watched that, they really were profited from that surge of inflation, we should go back and check that one out again, you know, because I remember that discussion was fabulous. And now now that's kind of the hot topic, the hot topic for sure. So Keith has a great company. It's called Get Rich Education. Before we go down that road, let's talk about how you started, because most people, you know, they struggle with just getting started.   Speaker 1 (00:16:22) - And I know you started with a fourplex. Yes. And you know, this is something very actionable for you, the listener, the viewer there. You can start off like I did. I didn't have a lot of money when I started out. I think that's a common investor's story. So how could I do more with less? And, you know, I was in Anchorage, Alaska, at the time when I was about to buy my first fourplex building, and I didn't have the inclination to know how to remodel places or be a landlord or anything like that. And, you know, Ken, it's a quote we've all heard, but it bears repeating the circle of friends I had fallen in with Harkins, the Jim Rohn quote, You are the average of the five people that you spend the most time with. Take your five closest friends income level. Take their educational attainment level, take the way they dress your five closest friends. If you want to change yourself, change your five. In two of my five in Anchorage, what I call pretty aspirational guys and two of my friends, they had made their first ever property a fourplex building with just a 3.5% down payment.   Speaker 1 (00:17:25) - So I learned how to do this from them. And you can still do this today. All you have to do is live in one of the units at least 12 months and just have a minimum credit score of 580. You can do that with a single family home, duplex, triplex or fourplex. That's how you can start with a bang and a small down payment. Yeah, we call that house hacking. Yeah, yeah, yeah. We talk a lot about this and I don't think people really realize, you know, and if you move into one side of a duplex and you buy a duplex with with this low money down and the lower credit score, you're basically you might not have a lot of cash flow if you live on the other side. But what you are is you're eliminating that huge expense that might have been for rent or something else, right? That's right, 100%. You know, everybody has their wacky landlord story. So I bought my first property living in one unit of the fourplex, renting out the other three.   Speaker 1 (00:18:16) - And like a duplex, like you said, where you might live. Did you tell me you were the owner? I because that's always thing. Yeah. You know, after a while after I got the new tenants in there, actually after I had moved offsite to another place, I didn't really want to admit I'm the owner. They ask all kinds of crazy things, but, you know, everything didn't go perfectly. For example, you know, shortly after I moved in, it was time for a tenant to pay the rent. It was the first that was due. They said they pay it the fifth. I was like, Oh, yeah, sure. Okay, whatever. Well, of course they didn't. I had to replace them. And you know how I qualified my next tenant in that vacant unit? What the qualifications were. Three females applied. They were attractive. So I let him move into the unit next to me based primarily on the fact that they were attractive. Well, that didn't work out very well.   Speaker 1 (00:19:00) - They had parties and they did not invite their landlord to the party. So everyone's got their wacky landlord story that's mine, but that's how you can start big. It is a good way to do it. And I think I don't think a lot of people realize that they can do that. So a lot of people I know are struggling with these affordability issues. So, you know, we've seen since our last podcast, you and I did, we've seen massive inflation, massive rent growth, obviously massive interest rate growth, which has driven people's mortgages up and doubling people, the mortgage payments up, plus we have all the inflationary components that I just mentioned. This is the best time to look at that house hack model because, you know, why wouldn't you grow.   Speaker 3 (00:19:38) - With inflation if you can do it with a with a two unit or four unit? Right now, there are some restrictions for for units and underwriters there something where if you go over that, it's a different kind of loan.   Speaker 1 (00:19:50) - That's right.   Speaker 1 (00:19:51) - Four units is the most you can do with that FHA loan in 3.5% down. So it's single family home, duplex, triplex or fourplex. And if you have VA Veterans Administration benefits, you can use that same plan with zero down. Believe it or not. It's a great way to start with the bank. Yeah.   Speaker 3 (00:20:07) - So you guys really need to look into this. If you could replace your living expenses large of the largest one, which is obviously typically rent and utilities and all that, then why wouldn't you?   Speaker 1 (00:20:20) - Yeah. And you know, here's the thing. Here's the takeaway. And I didn't understand this until I had owned that first fourplex for a couple of years. I think we've all learned we've all been influenced by the mantra that you don't want to invest with your money. You can build wealth profoundly by ethically employing other people's money. We're talking about doing it ethically. Providing people with housing that's clean, safe, affordable and functional. With that fourplex like I just described, I was using other people's money three ways at the same time.   Speaker 1 (00:20:50) - And you can do it too, because I use the bank's money for the loan and leverage. I use the tenant's money for the income that you were just talking about to offset all the building expenses and the mortgage payments. And then thirdly, I was using the government's money for very generous tax incentives, use other people's money three ways at the same time with the loan for income property, that's really going to accelerate your wealth building.   Speaker 3 (00:21:15) - That's right. That's right. And can you with that also do it with the down payment? That might be a fourth way.   Speaker 1 (00:21:21) - There are creative ways. For example, I know with FHA, sometimes you can get a gift. So that's a very astute question.   Speaker 3 (00:21:27) - Yeah. So that's another thing that a lot of people don't think about is, you know, I know with the FHA program, they're going to be looking at you. But there are there are ways to get gifts.   Speaker 1 (00:21:38) - That's right. And really use other people's money for the entire thing with keep using other people's money all that you can.   Speaker 3 (00:21:45) - The point is, guys, all can be OPM or other people's money. And that is the point. And so if you can't look into that, then it's now just an excuse. So let's talk about like you've done a very successful job of going out of state, out of the network and, and buying real estate. How have you done that? Because a lot of people are freaking out around, you know, how do I do I stay local? Do I go out of state? There's a lot of things to consider.   Speaker 1 (00:22:12) - I don't invest in my own local market. In fact, can I sell my last local meaning local to Anchorage, Alaska? I sold my last local apartment building last year. It's the first time in 20 years since I bought that first fourplex building. I don't own any local properties. I do all my investing out of state in investor advantage markets in the Midwest and South. And I know to some people it's scary to go out of state for the first time. You know, for some reason with stocks, people feel quite comfortable with, you know, buying stock for a company.   Speaker 1 (00:22:41) - They don't even know where that company's headquartered. But with real estate and something called turnkey real estate investing, that's one way to go across state lines. But really, here's my mindset in getting comfortable without estate investing, this is how I think of it. Can The property is only the fourth most important thing in real estate investing, and if you're thinking about investing, you often start by thinking about, okay, what would my next property be? It's important. But there are three things more important. Number one is you. What do you want real estate to do for you? This is what I like to share with people. Can Secondly is what market are you in? Thirdly, what's the team of professionals, especially your property manager, that you choose to surround yourself with? And then fourthly and only fourthly is the property. So let's go through that. It starts with you. What do you want real estate to do for you? Or are you looking for cash flow, which is common, or appreciation or tax advantages or a lifestyle benefit? Like maybe you want to live in it yourself.   Speaker 1 (00:23:37) - Once you've got that figured out what you want real estate to do for you, the market is the next most important thing. There is more risk with being in a little ho dunk market of 6000 people where half the employment is tied to the zinc mine than you think. So I like to be in larger metros have a diversification of economic sectors, something that you really excel in. Can So the market's at second thing because you need to have a place that's going to be filled with tenants. And when you buy your property, you need to have a reasonable expectation that 18 months down the road you're going to have another tenant that's going to be able to come in and fill that property. And then the third most important thing is the manager, your team. I mean, a bad property manager would drive a good property into the ground because you want this to be relatively passive. And fourthly and only fourthly is that property. And you know what happens. Can I see this happen? So often people get a 100% backwards.   Speaker 1 (00:24:30) - They go for three, two, one. First, they get all excited about a property and buy it because it has pretty blue shutters. Then they try to figure out if there's a good manager in the market because they don't like to get texts from tenants. And then secondly, they try to figure out the market that they bought in and it's too late. And then they go back to number one, which you're just so far out of line. And this is why a lot of people say that real estate doesn't work. So, again, the property is only the fourth most important thing. It starts with you market and team first. Yeah, I.   Speaker 3 (00:24:58) - Find that key. They do go for three, two, one all the time. Right? It drives me nuts because, you know, as you know and most professionals go one, two, three, four. And I think what happens is if when they get to one, they're they're figuring it out. You know, they need you to start there because it certainly clears up the vision, right?   Speaker 1 (00:25:18) - Yeah, 100%.   Speaker 1 (00:25:19) - And, you know, you intrinsically know this, but you just haven't thought it through before. Like, for example, you already know that the market is more important than the property. A giant mansion in a swamp outside Charleston, West Virginia, is not worth much, but yet a tiny 400 square foot efficiency apartment in the Tribeca neighborhood of Manhattan. Can be worth an awful lot. It's just reinforces the fact that the market's more important than the property and a lot of people get it wrong and always.   Speaker 3 (00:25:46) - Has been and always will be because you can you can screw up a purchase in a market that's going like this and you'll still look like a star.   Speaker 1 (00:25:55) - Yeah. And this will be true a decade and maybe even a century know. Yeah.   Speaker 3 (00:25:59) - So that's why the market is so important. So let's talk about the most controversial thing here, which is why there is 100% certainty, 100% of a housing crash. This is a I heard you talk about this and we talked a little bit about it for the podcast.   Speaker 3 (00:26:16) - I said, let's just wait, wait, wait, Let's talk about it on the podcast.   Speaker 1 (00:26:20) - There is a 100% certainty of a housing crash. And one might be wondering, first of all, how could you say that no one has complete clairvoyance to know the future? And the reason there is a 100% certainty of a housing crash in this era is because it already occurred. It happened in April of 2020, More than three years ago. It was a housing supply crash, not a price crash. In fact, the fact that we have had a supply crash really hedges against any sort of price crash. So using Freddie Mac data and I shared the chart with you before I came over to this video here so that you could see the backup. There are so many ways to go ahead and measure the available supply of homes, but about 1.5 million is what you'll see, Fred. The Federal Reserve economic data, about 1.5 million has historically been the amount of available homes going back to 2016. It began to fall after that with what happened in the health crisis.   Speaker 1 (00:27:19) - It plummeted in April of 2020 to 600,000 units and it still hasn't rebounded and it's continued to fall. So it's a 60% supply crash, 1.5 million down to less than 600,000 now. And that's what hedges against a price crash. That's why prices are continuing to stay buoyant at whatever demand level. The supply is really low, and that helps keep a bid on property. And really, I'd like to share with you the profundity of the fact that we've had a supply crash, not a price crash. I mean, think about this. We're the most powerful nation in the world, by so many measures, were the most powerful nation as far as political positioning and our military and our currency and our brand, the most powerful nation in the world. And we have trouble housing our own people. I mean, we're talking about food, shelter, safety, Maslow's hierarchy of needs, base level stuff here. So it's actually a bigger deal then a price crash. If you think about it, you may very well see more more homeless people in your in your hometown, for example.   Speaker 1 (00:28:25) - So the crash already occurred. A supply crash, not a price crash. Yeah. Yeah.   Speaker 3 (00:28:29) - It's important distinction, I think. I think people really need back up from this a little bit and understand where things are headed. You know, we have affordability problems. We definitely have homelessness issues creeping up. And so what really, really challenged everybody were these federal funds, increases in interest rates that went up. So all of a sudden, you know, we've also had the largest delta between rents and the the average mortgage price. So you got mortgages here. So rents and mortgages were kind of trending along at a pretty, you know, pretty equal amount. But now because of the whole prices that went up and the interest rates went up, there's a big, big gap between rents, even though rents have gone up. So that's also keeping people in their houses because they've got the 6%, let's say five, 6% interest rates, but they bought them at three. So they have this trapped equity, right? So so if you own a home that's 500 grand and you you have 3% on it, you're not going to move.   Speaker 1 (00:29:39) - Right? No, it's the mortgage interest rate lock in. Yeah, And that's a really astute point, Ken, because this plays in to the national dearth of supply on Iraq, 1.5 million available units down to 600,000. I talked to just lay people in everyday homeowners that have become landlords because they say, I don't want to sell my home. And it's 3.25% interest rate. So when I move out of it, I just want to hold on to that loan and rent it out. In the United States, you can't move your mortgage along with your property like that. So it's that interest rate lock in effect, that property, rather than coming up for sale, which would increase supply, doesn't it stays put. And almost two thirds of mortgage borrowers in the United States have a mortgage rate of 4% or.   Speaker 3 (00:30:24) - Less, a staggering number. It is. So I always tell people, Keith, you know, when I was growing up, cash was an asset, right? That was a liability. But now it's the opposite.   Speaker 3 (00:30:35) - Cash is now a liability because inflation. If you're if you have it in the bank is running faster and harder than what you're getting in interest. And now that debt at 3%, let's say, is an asset, you would actually be selling the property and you'll be getting rid of that asset. You can't borrow at 3% today because that is OPM or other people's money like we talked about.   Speaker 1 (00:31:00) - Right, Right. And if I borrow from a bank, say I'm a borrower and I want to take a loan from you. Well, of course, if I can do that at an interest rate, that's less than the rate of inflation. I want to do that because it's profitable. And how the mechanics of that work actually is when I repay Ken the bank in this case, every month that dollar debases on him faster than his interest can accrue on me. That's profitable for you if you can find that it's getting a little harder to find. But you can in some situations, still get interest rates lower than inflation.   Speaker 1 (00:31:33) - And inflation is such a fluffy number. We know that the CPI is manipulated with substitution and weighting and things, but if you can borrow at less than real inflation, that's exactly the transaction you're profiting from.   Speaker 3 (00:31:43) - What do you think real inflation is? Because I, I'm all over the Internet trying to figure this out, you know, and I go to all the shadow stats and all the things.   Speaker 1 (00:31:51) - Yeah, that's good that you're in shadow stats. There isn't really a good accurate way to measure inflation. I mean Ken and I a for next door neighbors were going to pay different rates of inflation. Say one of us is a vegetarian and the other eats beat then inflation in the price of steak affects one of us, but not the other. So if he commutes more than I do, gasoline prices affect him more than me. It's very difficult to pin down what the real rate of inflation is. There are hedonic reasons as well. Hedonic means pleasure seeking. So, for example, if home values go up 10% in a year, but now it's more common for homes to have quartz countertops in them a year later and they didn't have that in the homes of yesteryear.   Speaker 1 (00:32:33) - How do you adjust inflation for that? Because you're getting a better standard of living with quartz countertops. So this is why can and anyone has such a hard time pinning it down to what's the real inflation number. It's really nebulous.   Speaker 3 (00:32:45) - And I do know it's more.   Speaker 1 (00:32:48) - We do know it's more than what the CPI is reporting. How much more? No.   Speaker 3 (00:32:52) - One. I know it's true. It's all over the map. But I got to tell you, man, things are creeping up. You know, we were you know, my wife and I were you know, we just go to dinner and it's 100 bucks now. I mean, there's all these things that are there a lot more. But one thing is for sure, guys, if you can have an interest rate less than inflation, you're beating the market. That's the important thing to understand. And that's why, you know, go go the way back to Rich dad, poor dad with Kiyosaki. He was way ahead of his time when he said cash is trash.   Speaker 3 (00:33:27) - And, you know, savers are losers. And he doesn't mean that you are a loser. What he means is savers are losing money as compared with inflation. Back then, it was 2%. So now it's obviously more. Right?   Speaker 1 (00:33:41) - Yeah. And you know, really with inflation, I think the word is noticeable. No one talked about it when it was about 2% these past few years when it was right around the Fed target. It isn't until it became noticeable that it really became a thing. And you know, what do they say? What's Walmart greater say? They no longer say hello at the door. Instead, they just apologized for what's about to happen to you in there. It's noticeable.   Speaker 3 (00:34:05) - I noticed I was digging into the CPI or the Consumer Price Index recently for a video I was doing and I saw that housing was 44% of that number.   Speaker 1 (00:34:14) - Yeah. Between rent and owners equivalent rent, those two measures contribute to the CPI.   Speaker 3 (00:34:19) - So that's a lot. So think about that because I know, you know, what does that mean To me? That means that the Fed is not done increasing rates because, you know, I guess now they're reporting it at five.   Speaker 3 (00:34:33) - But if 44% of that 5% is housing in theory, then it looks to me like they're going to they're going to clip away at more of these federal funds rates. Right. What do you think?   Speaker 1 (00:34:46) - That's right. A lot of people think the Fed pivot will come later this year. The Fed pivot means when they stop hiking, which is increasing rates and begin to lower rates. I've got something really almost pretty trippy, really on interest rates to share with your audience here, Ken, because I think this is a real paradox that's going to blow some people away. What is it? So we know that mortgage interest rates have been up so much lately. And you know what happens with rising mortgage rates, right? When mortgage rates rise, home prices. You thought I was going to say fall, didn't you know? When mortgage rates rise, expect home prices to rise. And you might say what? That turns my whole world upside down. I mean, wouldn't one know that when mortgage rates rise.   Speaker 1 (00:35:38) - Well, that to. Creases affordability so one would afford less in prices would need to come down. And you know, the lens I like to look through a lot of times. Can we talk about applying economics to real estate? It's what I call history over hunches. I think it's really easy to have a hunch that when mortgage rates rise, well, obviously prices would have to come down due to impeded affordability. So maybe you're still wondering, well, what kind of upside down world would that happen? It's the world that you've been living in these past two years. What happened in 2021 and 2022? Home prices rose at a torrid pace, about 20% in 2021 and the following year last year, another 10% way beyond historic norms. And what happened with interest rates during that same time, they got doubled. I mean, they climbed a cliff. So that actually usually happens that when rates rise, prices rise. In fact, in the history over hunches, vane Winston Churchill is the one that said, the further you look into the past, the further you can see into the future.   Speaker 1 (00:36:44) - So let's open this up and look at the past, talk about why this happens, and then think about some lessons that you can learn from it. So in about the last 30 years, since 1994, mortgage rates have increased substantially nine times. That's defined as a mortgage rate increase of 1% or more. And during those nine times that mortgage rates rose, home prices rose seven of those nine times. This typically happens. And, you know, when I share this with real estate, people can a lot of them are blown away. They don't understand how they really don't even believe it. And I shared the data with you right before I came down here. You have the studio and maybe you can even put that chart up there to show people that I.   Speaker 3 (00:37:25) - Will do that.   Speaker 1 (00:37:25) - Jerry Yeah, but you know what? When I talk with doctors of economics, like the ones that I interview on my show, some of them aren't aware of it, but they all say, Oh yeah, I can believe it.   Speaker 1 (00:37:33) - I can understand how that would happen. All right. So what's going on here? Why does this happen? Why wouldn't mortgage rates rise? Would home prices rise? And, you know, there are for a couple of reasons. You know, can you and Donnell talk so eloquently about lag effects in the economy? Yeah, So that's one reason. But this can't completely be explained by lag effects because we have to think about what makes a person buy a home. Okay. We'll come back to that in a moment. But let's think about what happens when rates rise. Okay. Generally, the Fed is saying that the economy's hot, people are employed right now. There are some high profile tech layoffs for sure, but there are still more open job positions than there even are people to fill them. And this makes inflationary pressures heat up. So that's why they raise rates. When everyone has a job and you have an option if you get laid off to go to a second job and employers are competing for employees, what happens? You feel pretty secure in your job and what do you do when you feel secure in your job? You're likely to buy a home.   Speaker 1 (00:38:37) - So your situation, your income, your job security is an even more important factor than what mortgage rates are. So this is why, completely counter-intuitively and paradoxically, when mortgage rates rise, expect home prices to rise as well. And in fact, can. The only two times in the last nine that rates rose, that prices didn't rise as well. You know, they were they were 2007 and 2008 when there are really wacky aberrations going on in the market leading up to the global financial crisis. So, again, when rates rise, prices typically do two completely opposite of what most think.   Speaker 3 (00:39:12) - Yeah. And don't forget that part of the reason rates rise is because of the scarcity. So when you go from 1.4 million to 600,000, yeah, you have less just basic demand and supply. Less supply.   Speaker 1 (00:39:27) - That's right. And I think importantly, one needs to remember that there's less supply of both homes to buy and homes to rent. And even when one does want to buy and they continue to get shut out of the market with higher rates and higher prices than that obviously puts more people back in the renter pool, which is pretty good for guys like you.   Speaker 1 (00:39:45) - And I can know a lot of income priced right?   Speaker 3 (00:39:47) - That's why I did that video Renter Nation because it's not good by the way this you know housing is supposed to be balanced. So as somebody who owns a lot of rentals, we lose people. We lose people to single family home buying. That is the way it's supposed to be. Right? And then there are some people that when they're when they're done with the single family side, they want to come to rentals for convenience, for flexibility, for all kinds of things. So it's a natural stop. And so when one's out of whack or the other is out of whack, it's not necessarily good.   Speaker 1 (00:40:21) - No, it's not good. I mean, that impedes the upward mobility in really part of the American dream. Of course, you never want to lose a tenant from one of your apartments, but at least you can say, hey, congratulations, you moved up a rung or whatever. So this is the cost of any entry level. Housing is really high.   Speaker 1 (00:40:40) - In fact, when you parse the amount of available homes by the entry level type of, say, single family homes and duplexes, which tend to be the ones that make the best rentals, yeah, they're even more scarce.   Speaker 3 (00:40:51) - It's it's gotten worse. You know, I don't know that as a builder as you know, we built we can build entry level you know the.   Speaker 1 (00:41:00) - Most can't make it feasible.   Speaker 3 (00:41:01) - Cost the cost to build a house today is expensive.   Speaker 1 (00:41:05) - Yeah it really is. And you know, if you are looking to be a real estate investor in the 1 to 4 unit space, which is really an area where I specialize, if you can find a builder that builds entry level homes, I do know of a number of them in the Midwest and South, this could be a time for you to get a new build rental property more so than a renovated one. You know, that's really opposite of ten years ago. Ten years ago, we were still coming off the global financial crisis. Crazy.   Speaker 1 (00:41:32) - That was when the cost of property was even less than the replacement cost no one was going to build. Now you do have people building and, you know, can I know a number of these builders because mortgage rates are higher, that they're helping the investor, the individual investor down there. People like me, yeah, they're buying down the rates. So it's quite common for, oh, say on a $350,000 property for the builder to give you 2% of that 350 K purchase price. What is that, $7,000 at the closing table for you to buy down your mortgage rate? You also have turnkey newbuild companies that are giving 1 to 2 years of free property management. So new build typically costs more than renovated, which is why in the past a lot of investors like to buy a renovated property. But with the new builds and incentives like that and the fact that you're probably going to have lower insurance rates with new builds versus renovated, I think this really tilts toward you as the investors looking at property to your portfolio.   Speaker 1 (00:42:28) - It makes more sense now to look at new build than it has at any time in the recent past.   Speaker 3 (00:42:33) - Yeah, I know that like when we look at those big projects for for acquisition, you know, we're looking at what is it, what is the cost per unit for, let's say an acquisition in Phoenix versus building one? And in the last three years it was building all day long because the cost was 100,000 more per unit to buy crazy, crazy how existing product can get pushed up that high. And so all of a sudden that makes the building more affordable. Yeah, actually. And when you when you build the one next to the other, people are going to want the newer product all day long.   Speaker 1 (00:43:12) - Ken And maybe I can ask you a little something about being a builder. You know, I have learned from some builders that in a way some things are nice because they're not getting as much competition from resales on the market. We talked about why there aren't resales on the market. People want to hold on to their low mortgage rates so builders don't have the competition that way.   Speaker 1 (00:43:31) - But maybe you could let me know. Of course, it's going to vary by region and we've been talking very much nationally so far in the conversation here. But really, what's the lowest price point where it's still feasible as a builder to build where you have enough margin? Like what's the lowest price point on maybe a single family home? And then a larger. Yeah.   Speaker 3 (00:43:49) - So for me, it's mostly just apartments. So, you know, we'll go into a market. I'll give you a great example. We can buy in Austin, Texas, mid-nineties product, vaulted ceilings, nine foot ceilings, beautiful garages for $180,000 a door. Really nice. There's no way we can build that there for that price. Not even close. However, you take that exact project and you move it to Phoenix, it's 350 now. The rents are different, the expenses are different, the insurance is different, the property taxes are different. I understand the math. Is that the same? But, but on a per foot basis and a per unit basis, that's how different it is.   Speaker 3 (00:44:33) - So because of that, we're building in Arizona and buying in Texas. So now that can change. And also, you know that Austin could get really hot, those prices can go up and then we know that then it would change that dynamic. And so to your point, you always have to take a look at the difference between the deliverable. You know, do you buy The one thing I do like about buying is that it's immediate. You know, you could step into something immediate, make change immediate, whereas there's a bigger lag with the construction. So you do have some interest rate risk because you can't get a fixed rate loan on something that doesn't exist. It's land, it's air, and then it's built until it's in service, they call it. Then you can put fixed debt on it, but that's it. Up to that point, you're subject to a little bit of the whim of the fluctuations of the Fed and all the other things that that determine interest rates. So so you do have those things.   Speaker 3 (00:45:36) - We do love the new property. And so do our tenets. So when you build something new, people want to be there and they move out of that ten year or 15 year old product into something new. So there is that, plus you get a little bit more rent and, you know, all of those things. So there's positives and negatives for both.   Speaker 1 (00:45:55) - And so it's really, I'd say in the last ten years when you've seen the advent and proliferation of these build to rent companies, they're turnkey companies that build a finished product for you. That's the first thing that they do. And then the second thing they do is they place a tenant in it for you. And then thirdly, they hold it under management for you, the investor, if you so choose. Basically, it's those three things that define what a turnkey rental property is. So it's making more and more sense to do that with new build properties.   Speaker 3 (00:46:28) - Yeah, it certainly can and it's market by market. But you're right, you have to look at it each and every time.   Speaker 3 (00:46:34) - So before we wrap up, I'd like to talk about, you know, you always say invest in what's scarce, which I completely agree with. You know, And the other thing I like to say is invest the things that you can't print. So, you know, you could print dollars. You know, you can you can create a stock or ETF out of gold and all kinds of things, but you can't print gold, you can't print oil, you can't print trees. You can't print real estate. So let's talk about what's invest in what's scarce. So what do you mean by that?   Speaker 1 (00:47:05) - Oh, I love that. And we're so aligned on that. If I have any one investing theme, it comes down to one word scarcity. Yeah, I like to invest in what's scarce, not what's abundant and can be printed. You know, you don't even have to print anymore. It's just a few keystrokes and things like dollars and additional stock shares, abundant things, they can just be conjured into existence.   Speaker 1 (00:47:27) - So I avoid what's abundant like dollars in stocks and I focus on investing in what's scarce and is difficult to produce more of and take, yeah, real world resources to produce which is for me, it's real estate, gold and bitcoin that rounds out my scarcity theme. Why Real estate? It's a wealth builder really. Gold and bitcoin are not proven wealth builders. I think gold and bitcoin are maybe good places to move some capital once you've built it. Gold and bitcoin can be good stores of value gold really the classic store of value and bitcoin the real risk. But you know real world resources to produce. They're all scarce. Like we talked about the low supply of real estate. It has utility meaning usefulness. And yeah, when you buy a piece of real estate, a lot of people don't think about it this way, but break down all the commodities that you're buying when you buy a piece of real estate from drywall to gypsum, the copper wire to glass and all those sorts of things, it takes real world resources to produce that real estate.   Speaker 1 (00:48:27) - Real estate gives you advantages that gold and bitcoin don't like a reliable income stream and the ability to use leverage and terrific tax advantages. So that's why I'm a real estate guy. That scares gold, has a scarcity. What's really special about gold is it's one of the few things that's had enduring value for millennia, about 5000 years. You can say that about exceedingly few things. I guess you could make jokes about. It's intrinsic value. It's really not used that much industrially, but people have always flocked and gravitated toward that during times of uncertainty. And there's low supply inflation on gold that is very difficult to mine 2% more gold than it was the previous year. There were just challenges from exploration to mining and creating much more of this gold. And then thirdly, Bitcoin. You might not be that familiar with Bitcoin, but it takes real world resources, hardware, software and electricity to bring more Bitcoin into existence. There will never be more than 21 million bitcoins, so it has a fixed supply. You can't quite even say that about real estate and gold.   Speaker 1 (00:49:37) - A hard cap of fixed supply. More than 19 million bitcoin have already been mined. It's truly scarce and Bitcoin does have a role. It has some downfalls too, in case the government cracks down on it. I think that's the big risk with Bitcoin. But gold and dollars each have their downfall is difficult to transport gold across space due to its weight in its volume and security problems and then dollars. You can't transmit dollars across time due to inflation. Bitcoin is that one store of value. It's still volatile, it's still got some problems there, but it's the one store of value that you can transport across both space and time. You can't say that about dollars or gold. I'm a real estate guy. Real estate, you know, I think of it Ken is real estate is old and slow and analog and Bitcoin is young and fast and digital, so it is kind of a counterpoint. To the real estate with the Bitcoin. But yeah, if you need to build wealth and you don't have it yet, it's really difficult to invest in an asset class outside of real estate.   Speaker 1 (00:50:47) - Wealthy people's money either starts out in real estate or it ends up in real estate.   Speaker 3 (00:50:52) - Yeah, that's true. Yeah. I personally, I'm a big gold guy. I, I love being able to just throw a couple coins in my pocket and fly to wherever I want and pull them out and they're like, I got 4 or 5 grand.   Speaker 1 (00:51:04) - It's something tangible. You could actually look at it.   Speaker 3 (00:51:06) - It's nice. It's kind of nice to have that, you know, I don't particularly look at it as an investment, right? I look at it more as a hedge, an insurance policy, maybe a hedge against the dollar.   Speaker 1 (00:51:17) - Yeah, it's sort of like money insurance. I agree. And really a lot like an insurance policy. You hope you never have to use it, just like you hope you would never have to sell your goal. It's good money insurance. It's not a wealth builder. In my experience. It really just generally tracks inflation over time.   Speaker 3 (00:51:35) - Which is a good thing, by the way, especially now.   Speaker 3 (00:51:38) - I think what's interesting is have you had a chance to look at how much gold the central banks have been buying? I really have. So this is a really interesting point before we wrap up. So as you guys might know, central banks are in charge of printing money, basically. Well, other things, but one of those, that's one of them. So and they're kind of upset at the US dollar right now. Yeah. Because, you know, the world trades in US dollars and they're sitting on US dollars. And as we inflate and print US dollars, it looks like that a lot of them are buying gold, Right. And I would if, if they're they're trying to store their value in something that dollars so something other than dollars. I read an article the other day that said that we've been weaponizing the dollar against the rest of the world. Right.   Speaker 1 (00:52:28) - Right. So many foreign central banks, China, Russia and many more, they've really been loading up on gold these past few years.   Speaker 1 (00:52:36) - You see more and more international trade agreements, like you alluded to, cutting out the dollar and going through the yuan. You had the war in Ukraine, all these things increased geopolitical uncertainty. And that's why gold was on a tear and went over $2,000 recently.   Speaker 3 (00:52:49) - And then BRICs, BRICs is showing up. You know, that's the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South America. Right. And South Africa. Right. And I think there's a 30, 40 countries now. I've joined something like that.   Speaker 1 (00:53:04) - Yep. There's more and more. And they're not they're not pals of the United States.   Speaker 3 (00:53:07) - No, no. I don't know if you guys are watching this stuff, but it's something you have to watch. I mean, because your hard earned, your hard earned money is yours. And so you have to be a steward of it. You have to look at this stuff. It's not conspiracy theory stuff. You need to go out and Google this stuff and you'll see it's the dollar doomed. I don't know the answer, but I do know that you have to keep your eye on all this stuff.   Speaker 3 (00:53:30) - Right.   Speaker 1 (00:53:31) - Well, I'm glad you bring this up because one can speculate, one can make projections. But one of the few things that we do know and this is central to every investment that you make is that the dollar is going to continue to be debased. At what rate? We just don't know. But there are a few guarantees in life, but that's one thing that's virtually guaranteed. And really everything that we're talking about here hedges you against that. Again, dollars in stocks can easily be printed. Want to stay out of those sorts of checks?   Speaker 3 (00:53:59) - And if you could fix your rate while the government debases your dollar, you're winning.   Speaker 1 (00:54:05) - That's a winning formula for every million dollars in debt you have with just 5% inflation, you know the bank back 950 K after one year because wages and prices and everything, salaries are all higher. And with real estate, it's wow, your tenant pays all the interest for you while you're enjoying that debasement benefit. It's definitely counterintuitive. Get more debt. That's one of my favorite four letter words.   Speaker 3 (00:54:31) - Ha ha ha. Well, good. Keith, this has been awesome. So what's the best way people can reach you? I know I listen to your stuff, but I'm not sure everyone knows the.   Speaker 1 (00:54:40) - Get Rich Education podcast and get rich education YouTube channel. Real estate pays you five ways at the same time. Just regular buy and hold real estate. And it's actually okay that we didn't get into that because I made a free course with five videos, one on each of the five ways, just regular everyday buy and hold real estate pays and we're giving that away free right now at Get Rich education slash course. So it's a gift certificate and podcast and YouTube channel and again that free course real estate pays five ways which really reinforces why real estate is that generational wealth builder is a get rich education slash course. Awesome.   Speaker 3 (00:55:21) - All right, buddy, always great to see you.   Speaker 1 (00:55:23) - Love catching up, kids. Yeah. I hope that you enjoyed that vibrant conversation and a lot of original thoughts between Ken and I there.   Speaker 1 (00:55:36) - Ken is one of the more giving guys in the real estate industry. I like to hang around with the givers and reciprocate myself. One thing that I cannot take credit for as original is my part of the discussion where I was speaking about how the property is only the fourth most important thing in real estate investing. I learned at least some version of that from the real estate guys Robert Helms and Russell Gray. Now, when it comes to the prospect of a housing price crash, I think that a lot of the gloom and doom was that were completely wrong about that. Since 2020, you know, a lot of them have just dissipated or have gone away. Economic uncertainty that could not make home prices fall in any meaningful way like we've experienced the last three plus years and then last year a doubling of interest rates. Well, that couldn't really touch home prices either. Looking into the future, the rest of this year and into next year, I've got a good eight or so reasons here that home prices won't crash, although there could always be a black swan event, I suppose, from a pandemic to a direct hit by a meteor into the center of the United States.   Speaker 1 (00:56:46) - You are listening to someone that successfully invested through two recessions here. Home prices won't crash anytime soon because there aren't currently enough homes to house Americans. There are billions of dollars sitting on the sidelines right now just waiting for people to jump into the market. Lending guidelines have been strict for a decade plus, and that means those that own homes now can afford to make the payments. Home equity is also near record levels, so those that do have trouble making their payments, they wouldn't have to make a highly distressed fire sale. The government will do everything that they can to stop foreclosures, and on average, it takes 900 days to complete one. The population keeps increasing, although slowly US housing is still some of the most affordable in the world. And what higher interest rates do is that they also slow homebuilding. They slow that rate of new supply. This is all why housing prices cannot crash any time soon. We've got a fantastic show coming up here next week for you. If you're newer to this show or you just haven't seen my free real estate pays five Ways video course yet.   Speaker 1 (00:58:00) - Like I was telling Ken's audience about there, this is fundamental to you building the kind of life that you've always wanted for yourself. The course is truly free. I don't try to upsell you from that to some paid course. Perhaps the best thing that you can do for your financial future is to watch and understand all of the ways that you are paid. You can do that now at Get Rich Education slash course Happy independence Day. I'm Keith Winfield. Don't quit it.   Speaker 4 (00:58:35) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively.   Speaker 1 (00:59:03) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building get rich education. Com.    

In The Money Revolution: How to Finance the Next American Century, economist and bestselling author Richard Duncan lays out a farsighted strategy to maximize the United States' unmatched financial and technological potential. In compelling fashion, the author shows that the United States can and should invest in the industries and technologies of the future on an unprecedented scale in order to ignite a new technological revolution that would cement the country's geopolitical preeminence, greatly enhance human wellbeing, and create unimaginable wealth. This book also features a history of the Federal Reserve. Richard Duncan has served as Global Head of Investment Strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington, D.C., and headed equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok, Thailand. He is now the publisher of Macro Watch, a video-newsletter that analyzes the forces driving the global economy in the 21st Century. Caleb Zakarin is the Assistant Editor of the New Books Network. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

In The Money Revolution: How to Finance the Next American Century, economist and bestselling author Richard Duncan lays out a farsighted strategy to maximize the United States' unmatched financial and technological potential. In compelling fashion, the author shows that the United States can and should invest in the industries and technologies of the future on an unprecedented scale in order to ignite a new technological revolution that would cement the country's geopolitical preeminence, greatly enhance human wellbeing, and create unimaginable wealth. This book also features a history of the Federal Reserve. Richard Duncan has served as Global Head of Investment Strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington, D.C., and headed equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok, Thailand. He is now the publisher of Macro Watch, a video-newsletter that analyzes the forces driving the global economy in the 21st Century. Caleb Zakarin is the Assistant Editor of the New Books Network. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/economics

In The Money Revolution: How to Finance the Next American Century, economist and bestselling author Richard Duncan lays out a farsighted strategy to maximize the United States' unmatched financial and technological potential. In compelling fashion, the author shows that the United States can and should invest in the industries and technologies of the future on an unprecedented scale in order to ignite a new technological revolution that would cement the country's geopolitical preeminence, greatly enhance human wellbeing, and create unimaginable wealth. This book also features a history of the Federal Reserve. Richard Duncan has served as Global Head of Investment Strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington, D.C., and headed equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok, Thailand. He is now the publisher of Macro Watch, a video-newsletter that analyzes the forces driving the global economy in the 21st Century. Caleb Zakarin is the Assistant Editor of the New Books Network. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/politics-and-polemics

Crypto News Today! Interesting developments in the #alt coin market, could we see an alt coin rally? #Bitcoin continues to show strength but #Ethereum vs Bitcoin pair is very positive. Talks of an FTX Exchange relaunch are seen on lawyer billing line items, is this for real? How important is #Coinbase Superchain Coin built on #Optimism? It seems to have the potential to help DeFi go mainstream if done correctly. #Trump #NFTs EXPLODE after the former President's indictment - #crypto is CRAZY! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Show Info Intro | LIVE DAILY 12PM EST 3:00 U.S. Government Sold Their Bitcoin 5:38 Altcoin Season & Capital Rotation 9:30 Altcoin Watch 22:53 Macro Watch! 32:50 ISO 20022 for Crypto & Tokens 39:30 FTX Part 2? 49:55 DeFi Lending Market | Aave & Grainary 58:58 Uniswap v3, Fantom & V3 Forks 1:01:54 Coinbase Base Chain Slept On? 1:08:15 Trump Indictment | Trump NFTs Pumping! 1:12:00 LIKE THE VIDEO! Nothing you read/see on Blockbytes YouTube or blockbytes.com should be considered financial advice. Please use all of the information available to you and do your own research. There are many risks inherent with Crypto currency investing which includes up to complete loss of funds. So please never invest with money you cannot afford to lose. All of Blockbytes content is for entertainment purposes only and the opinions of the presenters and guests do not necessarily reflect the views of Blockbytes LLC. Nothing you see in any of the blockbytes content should be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any assets. Any links of which Blockbytes receives a commission will be clearly marked as such. If you like the content that we produce and can use the products then please consider using our referral links above.

"As inflation came down from the early 1980s, then interest rates came down...credit exploded...suddenly this money revolution was sparked off when dollars stopped being backed by gold...the Fed is free to print...and credit exploded. So, all of these things together constituted a money revolution that transformed the world and pulled hundreds of millions of people around the world out of poverty."— Richard Duncan Since the US detached the dollar from gold, printing money has created a global credit bubble, always on the verge of imploding.  The COVID-19 pandemic caused a unique phenomenon in 2020, with the savings rate skyrocketing while consumer credit dropped.  Then came the invasion of Ukraine by Russia causing inflation rates to surge and more global supply chain bottlenecks.  With the increased inflation rates and a surge in consumer credit, it's becoming more challenging for the Fed to control inflation just by raising rates.   So, what's the solution: how can the government fix this?   Richard Duncan is an economist and the author of four best-selling books that analyze the causes and effects of economic crises and the transformation of our economic system from capitalism to what he calls "credit-ism." His latest book, "The Money Revolution: How to Finance the Next American Century," describes the evolution of money and credit over the last century since the dollar stopped being backed by gold. Duncan also publishes "Macro Watch," a video newsletter available on his website. Today, on The Wiggin Sessions, Richard joins me to discuss the government's involvement in the current debt crisis, his thoughts on the debt ceiling, and what he thinks we should learn from the money revolution.  Listen in as he shares his thoughts on what needs to be done to make the current economic situation sustainable, induce a technological revolution, turbocharge productivity and economic growth, and keep the country out of a depression caused by a credit bubble implosion.  Plus, how you can subscribe to his newsletter for 50% off—just for listeners of “The Wiggin Sessions.”  Key Takeaways How the pandemic impacted the economy of the US, causing the savings rate to skyrocket (while consumer credit dropped) The current credit bubble and the government's involvement How interest rates lead up to debt crisis What the government could do to grow our way out of this crisis Why Richard feels the debt ceiling should be eliminated How the government's creation of 2.8 trillion dollars in one quarter was used to preserve the status quo (instead of investing in the future) The US government's plan for cryptocurrencies Why Richard is not particularly concerned about the rising national debt Connect with Richard Duncan Richard Duncan Economics Richard Duncan (@PaperMoneyEcon) on Twitter Connect with Addison Wiggin Consilience Financial The Wiggin Sessions on Facebook The Wiggin Sessions on Instagram The Wiggin Sessions on Twitter Resources The Money Revolution: How to Finance the Next American Century Use Code February to Subscribe Save 50% on Macro Watch - Richard Duncan Economics The Credit Bubble popped. Can the government fix it? Richard Duncan | EP 90 The Wiggin Sessions Financial Reckoning Day: Surviving the Soft Depression of the 21st Century Share the Wiggin Sessions

The Fed's aggressive monetary policy: could it lead to double-digit real estate losses? In this episode, Justin ad Richard Duncan discuss the potential consequences of the Fed's aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle. Richard compares America's response to other developed countries that are experiencing higher rates of inflation and what investors should be aware of to protect their investments. He provides insight into why the Fed is now being forced to hike interest rates aggressively and how this presents a threat to the economy and affects residential and commercial real estate prices. Let's dive into Richard's wealth of resources to help you stay on top of the ever-changing global economy!Key Highlights: [00:01 - 06:05] Opening Segment• What pulled the economy through what could have been a new great depression• The economy is now larger than pre-Covid and unemployment is still close to a 50-year low• Why the Fed is now aggressively hiking interest rates and reversing quantitative easing[06:06 - 12:22] Globalization Reversal and Inflation• Globalization has been partially reversed due to Covid lockdowns and Russia's invasion of Ukraine• How lower interest rates have allowed businesses to borrow and create more jobsConsumers can borrow more and spend more on houses• The combination of stimulus in the US, partial reversal of globalization, and higher prices[12:23 - 18:19] What Investors Need to Know• Double-digit declines in property prices are expected in most major cities within the next 6-12 months• Bridge loans have become increasingly expensive, leaving many investors stuck • How liquidity in the financial markets is key to understanding asset prices[18:20 - 21:16] Closing Segment • Get 50% off Macro Watch with coupon code "BUILDING"Connect with Richard:Richard Duncan Economics (Website)Key Quotes: "Liquidity in the financial markets is the thing that tends to push asset prices up when it's growing and push asset pressures down when it's contracting." - Richard Duncan"The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is moving higher and making it prohibitively expensive for people to buy homes." - Richard DuncanDownload our FREE ebook, The Definitive Guide To Passive Real Estate Strategies.Check out our Multifamily Syndication Group, and sign up for our NEWSLETTER.Want to invest with us? Schedule a brief call here. Get in touch: Justin@arealminvestor.com and let me know what topics you'd like me to cover or what guests I should have on.If you like our content, please give us a rating on the platform you're listening on!

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU'LL LEARN:02:41 - Where the economy is heading, now that credit growth has been reversed.07:29 - The steep decline in the treasury markets around the world and what's driving it.14:09 - England's pension plan fiasco.29:23 - Why the FED's net income has turned negative for the first time ever and how it can be reversed if politicians understand the mechanics Richard lays out.59:14 - The $280B Chips & Science Act that was recently signed into law.And much, much more!Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.BOOKS AND RESOURCESRichard Duncan's Website.Macro Watch's Website.The Money Revolution Book.Trey Lockerbie TwitterRelated Episode: How To Finance The Next American Century W/ Richard Duncan - TIP424.Related Episode: Has Inflation Peaked? W/ Richard Duncan - TIP365.NEW TO THE SHOW?Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs.Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool.Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets.Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. P.S The Investor's Podcast Network is excited to launch a subreddit devoted to our fans in discussing financial markets, stock picks, questions for our hosts, and much more! Join our subreddit r/TheInvestorsPodcast today!SPONSORSTake a position daily on potential price movements, and gain exposure while limiting risk with Interactive Brokers.Invest in high-quality, cash-flowing real estate without all of the hassle with Passive Investing.Build a plan that helps you strengthen your financial security with RBC Wealth Management. RBC capital markets LLC, member NYSE, FINRA, SIPC.If your business has five or more employees and managed to survive Covid you could be eligible to receive a payroll tax rebate of up to twenty-six thousand dollars per employee. Find out if your business qualifies with Innovation Refunds.More wealth, more purpose, or making more of a difference? Commonwealth Private helps you create more of yours - with exceptional service and experts who meticulously tailor opportunities for you.Get access to great value basic health insurance that's simple to understand with Frank Health Insurance.Start building a portfolio of alternative farm and timberland assets with AcreTrader.See the potential of your business. Find solutions that work for you, that tick bigger boxes and help you grow with Square.When you want to be a better problem solver, therapy can get you there. Visit BetterHelp today to get 10% off your first month.Throw out the old traditions and get progressive. Discover the complete package - smart design, lots to love under the hood with Genesis.Enjoy a 400-calorie meal that contains 40g of expertly sourced, premium plant protein, all 26 essential vitamins and minerals, and a scientifically calibrated mix of carbs, good fats and fiber with Huel Black Edition. Plus, get a free t-shirt and free shaker with your first order.Have gold and silver shipped directly to your door for you to hold at your home. Get BullionMax's Gold Investor Kit today - 3 ounces of the world's most desirable gold coins, including the Gold American Eagle and Canadian Maple Leaf.Invest in your best rest today with Brooklinen. Enjoy $20 off your order and free shipping on orders of $100+ with code INVESTORS.Start printing everything your small business needs and discover the endless printabilities with VistaPrint.Private assets represent 98% of companies in North America but are absent in most portfolios. Reconstruct your portfolio with private markets with Mackenzie Investments.Whether you're exploring ways to manage volatility, seeking income and diversification opportunities, or looking for tax management strategies- Invesco has over 200 ETFs to help you meet your financial goals. Visit invesco.com for a prospectus with this information.Confidently take control of your online world without worrying about viruses, phishing attacks, ransomware, hacking attempts, and other cybercrimes with Avast One.Get position and investment info for nearly 6,000 Asset Management Companies with Moomoo, Australia's first A.I. powered trading platform. Sign up and fund your moomoo account before October 31 and get $10 for every $100 you deposit. All investment carries risk. AFSL 224 663. T&Cs apply.Enjoy 10% off your first booking in Viator's world of over 300,000 experiences you'll remember. Download the Viator app now and use code VIATOR10.Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Fed is now hiking interest rates very aggressively AND destroying $95 billion every month through Quantitative Tightening. Today's guest explains how the Fed plans to continue hiking rates and destroying hundreds of billions of dollars until it throws millions of Americans out of work and wipes out trillions of dollars of wealth in order to bring the inflation rate back down to its 2% inflation target. Richard Duncan, author of “The Money Revolution: How to Finance the Next American Century,” says, “The central banks are in shock because for the first time in 30 years they have to deal with inflation.” Duncan goes on to explain, if the Fed prints more money, it'll fan the inflationary flames. If they don't print more money, credit will contract, and the economy will spiral into crisis. Host Robert Kiyosaki and guest Richard Duncan discuss the global economy, how it effects the average investor, and more importantly, how you can survive. Use code CRASH to receive a 50% discount off a one-year subscription to Macro Watch. Visit www.richardduncaneconomics.com

Mr. Duncan majored in literature and economics at Vanderbilt University and went on to receive his master's from Babson College in international finance. He was the global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, a financial sector specialist at the World Bank, a consultant for the IMF, and was in charge of equity research at James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok. Quite the resume to say the least. Richard studies the trends leading up to recent crises and what causes them. He is the author of four books titled "The Dollar Crisis," "The Corruption of Capitalism," "The New Depression," and his latest, "The Money Revolution." In his free time, Mr. Duncan publishes a bi-weekly newsletter called "Macro Watch," which offers analyses of current macroeconomic trends. The Henry George School joined Mr. Duncan to discuss how consumer credit shrank post-WWII debt, how the Federal Reserve dealt with stagflation, and how the US transitioned from a domestic to a global economy and its impacts. To check out more of our content, including our research, visit our website: https://www.hgsss.org/

My guest in this episode is Richard Duncan. Richard is the author of four books analyzing the causes and the effects of the economic crises that have brought the global economy to the brink of collapse during recent decades. The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (2003) explained why a worldwide economic calamity was inevitable given the flaws in the post–Bretton Woods international monetary system. It was an international bestseller. The Corruption of Capitalism (2009) described the long series of U.S. policy mistakes responsible for the Crisis of 2008. It also outlined the policies necessary to permanently resolve it. The New Depression: The Breakdown of the Paper Money Economy (2012) introduced an important new analytical framework, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that explained all aspects of the global economic crisis that began in 2008: its causes, the rationale for the government's policy response to the crisis, likely future developments and how those developments could affect asset prices and investment portfolios. His latest book is The Money Revolution: How to Finance the Next American Century (2022). The first two parts of the book describe the evolution of Money and Credit over the last century. These include a detailed history of the Federal Reserve since its establishment in 1913 and a discussion of the transformation of our economic system from Capitalism to Creditism during the five decades since Dollars ceased to be backed by Gold. Parts One and Two show that a “Money Revolution” has occurred and fundamentally altered the way the global economy functions. Part Three demonstrates that this Money Revolution opens up unprecedented opportunities for the United States to radically accelerate economic growth, enhance human well-being and strengthen US national security by investing aggressively in the Industries and Technologies of the Future. Since beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986, Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington, D.C., and headed equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok. He also worked as a consultant for the IMF in Thailand during the Asia Crisis. Since 2013, Richard has published the video-newsletter Macro Watch, which analyzes the new forces driving the economy and the financial markets in the 21st Century. Interview Links: Richard Duncan Economics: https://richardduncaneconomics.com/ Episode Sponsors: Producers Wealth: Create Your Own Banking System In 30 Days Or Less www.producerswealth.com GoBundance: The Tribe For Healthy, Wealthy, Generous Men Who Choose To Lead EPIC Lives www.gobundance.com Accountable Equity: Resort Hospitality & Efficient Income Cash Flow Investments www.accountableequity.com Strategic Metals Invest: Invest In Rare Earth Elements & Technology Metals www.strategicmetalsinvest.com The Real Asset Investor: Build Wealth With Higher Yield Cash Flow www.therealassetinvestor.com Penumbra Solutions: Buy Your Equity Like Institutions With Life Settlements www.thepenumbraplan.com  - password “penumbra” Producers Capital Partners: Multiply Capital Through Alternative Investments  www.producerscapitalpartners.com Lavish Keys: Your Turnkey Solution For Luxury Short Term Rentals www.lavishkeys.com Grab My Book: The 21 Best Cashflow Niches™: www.cashflowninja.com/21niches Programs: The Cashflow Ninja Cashflow Investors Club™: www.cashflowninja.com/club Your Own Banking System™ : www.yourownbankingsystem.com Your Own Family Office™: www.cashflowninja.com/familyoffice The Crypto Investing Method™: www.cashflowninja.com/crypto The Cashflow Creator Formula™: www.cashflowninja.com/creator The Cashflow Core Builder™: www.casflowninja.com/core The Cashflow Multiplier™: www.cashflowninja.com/multiplier The Cashflow Quantum™: www.cashflowninja.com/quantum Connect With Us: Website: http://cashflowninja.com Podcast: http://cashflowinvestingsecrets.com Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/cashflowninja/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/mclaubscher Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thecashflowninja/ Pinterest: https://www.pinterest.com/mclaubscher/cashflow-ninja/ Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mclaubscher/ Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/c/Cashflowninja Bitchute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/cashflowninja/ Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-329875 Odysee: https://odysee.com/@Cashflowninja:9 Gab Tv: https://tv.gab.com/channel/cashflowninja Brighteon: https://www.brighteon.com/channels/cashflowninja Parler: https://parler.com/profile/cashflowninja/ Gettr: https://gettr.com/user/mclaubscher Gab: https://gab.com/cashflowninja Minds: https://www.minds.com/cashflowninja Biggerpockets: https://www.biggerpockets.com/users/mclaubscher Medium: https://medium.com/@mclaubscher Substack: https://mclaubscher.substack.com/

Tom welcomes a new guest Richard Duncan to the show. Richard is a macroeconomist and the author of three books on the global economic crisis. Richard discusses how (total credit debt) credit growth now drives the economy. Currently, U.S. debts have surpassed 85 trillion. Whenever credit growth slows below two percent annually the U.S. enters a recession. This has happened nine times since 1950. The economy has changed fundamentally since the 19th century. Gold has not been money for fifty years. The big change came in 1968 when the Fed was allowed to create money without having a reserve. When the gold window closed in 1971 so ended the corrective mechanism to balance the trade imbalances between countries. In the 80s the U.S. discovered they could run trade deficits without much consequence. This did result in the dollar being devalued but during the 90s we saw the economies of developing countries improve massively. The U.S. was able to rely on cheap foreign labor and manufacturing to produce low-cost goods. Until recently money printing had little impact on inflation growth. Month on month change for inflation is breaking out higher. There are many reasons for higher prices over the past couple of years and inflation is not certain. For now, large stimulus packages are not expected. Without stimulus, we would likely have had a major recession. Chairman Powell has recently stated plans to accelerate tapering and raise interest rates. Credit growth is expected to slow rapidly and without more debt, the economy could contract. Our system is no longer that of capitalism but 'creditism'. The Fed is hostage to the S&P and is covering for any market corrections. The economy is essentially on life support. The Fed can't raise interest rates far and it seems less likely to do so in light of the new covid variant. Wealth is becoming very stretched compared to income. Income is not keeping up and overall downward pressure remains on wages. People need income to pay their interest on the money they borrow. Income is no longer keeping up with assets like home prices. Richard believes the Fed can keep this game going for a long time perhaps decades. He believes there is a risk of softer gold prices in the future. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Credit & Growth2:34 - Economic Standards13:01 - Inflation & Stimulus17:41 - Recession & Credit-ism19:27 - Credit Sector Borrowing25:16 - Lending Standards29:02 - Role of Interest Rates30:10 - Wealth to Income Ratio37:43 - Endgame?44:12 - Dollar Outlook & Q.E.45:11 - Softer Gold Price?46:30 - Best Assets to Own?48:08 - Book Recommendations51:33 - His Newsletter Offer Talking Points From This Week's Episode How credit now drives our current 'creditism' economic system.The consequences of a credit system and why trade imbalances no longer matter.Inflation and recession risks due to insufficient borrowing next year. Guest Links:Website: http://www.richardduncaneconomics.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/PaperMoneyEconNewsletter Offer:https://richardduncaneconomics.com/product/macro-watch/For a 50% discount, when prompted, use the coupon code: Value Richard Duncan is the author of three books on the global economic crisis, including the international bestseller, The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures, which forecast the global economic crisis of 2008 with extraordinary accuracy. Since beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986, Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington D.C., and headed equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok. He also worked as a consultant for the IMF in Thailand during the Asia Crisis. He is now the publisher of the video-newsletter Macro Watch which can be found on his website.

Aug 11 – Richard Duncan, producer of Macro Watch, explains creditism vs. capitalism, how 2021 will see a peak in credit growth, i.e. liquidity, along with the rate of economic growth and inflation... Subscribe to our premium weekday podcasts: https://www.financialsense.com/subscribe

On the bullish side, there is a GIGANTIC amount of money being pumped into the financial markets by the Fed, which is creating and injecting $120 billion into the markets every month.   On top of that, the Treasury Department has a bank account with more than $1 trillion in it; and it plans to spend all that money over the next few months. All this Liquidity is likely to put more upward pressure on the price of stock, property, gold, and other asset classes. Today’s guest is Richard Duncan who is the author of “The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures.” He says, “There is a liquidity tsunami pouring into markets. Fortunes are going to be made on either side depending on who wins out.”   On the bearish side, people are nervous that Inflation is going to pick up sharply. This is causing interest rates to rise. Higher interest rates are making the markets very nervous and could cause a panic attack and a stock market sell-off. Higher interest rates could also cause the price of gold to fall.  Hosts Robert and Kim Kiyosaki and guest Richard Duncan discuss the liquidity tsunami pouring into the market and what it means for asset prices in 2021.  Offer for Rich Dad listeners: To receive 50% off your subscription to Macro Watch, visit richardduncaneconomics.com and hit the Subscribe Button, and, when prompted, use the discount coupon code: rich  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mar 17 – Richard Duncan of Macro Watch discusses the trillion-dollar plus amount of stimulus about to flood into the markets over the next three months between stimulus, the Fed's bond-buying... Subscribe to our premium weekday podcasts: https://www.financialsense.com/subscribe

In today's episode, Jim sits down with Richard Duncan, economist and author of such books as The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures; The Corruption of Capitalism: A strategy to rebalance the global economy and restore sustainable growth; and The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy. Richard currently produces a video newsletter called Macro Watch that analyzes trends in the global economy and discusses how these trends are likely to impact the financial markets, which can be found at https://www.richardduncaneconomics.com. Special offer for PUCK listeners, enter the discount code: "Puck" at checkout for a 50% discount off a Macro Watch yearlong subscription.

Richard Duncan is the author of three books on the global economic crisis, including the international bestseller, The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures, which forecast the global economic crisis of 2008 with extraordinary accuracy.   Since beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986, Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington D.C., and headed equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok.  He also worked as a consultant for the IMF in Thailand during the Asia Crisis.   He is now the publisher of the video-newsletter Macro Watch. Interview Links: Richard Duncan Resources: Create A Strategy Become The Bank Join Our Community

The Government is managing the economy through government debt and the Fed printing money. There's no better example of why they do this than when the Fed announced it would create limitless amounts of money in March 2020. Had the Government not printed money, the U.S. would have certainly fallen into a depression. The question you should be asking is, "How long can this go on before we spiral into a new depression?" To answer this question, you first must: 1. Understand the forces that drove the global economy and the financial markets before the Coronavirus struck. 2. Understand what the government must do now to prevent an unprecedented destruction of wealth and a new Great Depression. Listen as host Robert Kiyosaki and guest Richard Duncan, author of the international bestseller, "The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures," discuss how the current financial crisis started long before the coronavirus spread throughout the world and what you can do about it. ***FOR RICHDAD.COM*** Richard Duncan’s website: http://www.richardduncaneconomics.com Use the code: rich to receive a 50% discount off a subscription to Macro Watch. Visit richardduncaneconomics.com and hit the Subscribe Button, and, when prompted, use the discount coupon code:rich Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the past, government debts were not paid and just piled up with interest rates that increase every year. In today's economic crisis, is America facing another era like that of World War II? What is the federal reserve doing to cope with these economically disruptive times? In this part two episode with professional economist , he joins Patrick Donohoe to touch on the government policy response towards the economy during the pandemic. They also exchange thoughts on the global economic trends and where things can go given the involvement by the Federal Reserve and how banks will be affected in this massive pivot.  Get a 50% discount off a Macro Watch subscription by visiting . Hit the subscribe button and use the discount coupon code: June. Love the show? Subscribe, rate, review, and share! Join The Wealth Standard community today:        

The current crisis involving the COVID-19 pandemic has got a lot of people wondering what's going on with the global economy and what is likely to come in the subsequent months, years, and so forth. It is no secret that things are happening around the world from a monetary and fiscal standpoint that most people aren't aware of. However, studying them is ultimately going to position you to take the most advantage of not just this environment, but future environments as well. On today's show, Patrick Donohoe is joined by a professional economist and the publisher of the video-newsletter called , . Richard talks about what's going on in the economy and the importance of knowing what the future looks like and what things to pay attention to so that you can adapt and ultimately know what's coming.   Get a 50% discount off a Macro Watch subscription by visiting . Hit the subscribe button and use the discount coupon code: June

During these times of uncertainty, it is extremely important to focus on and understand economics. The economic indicators shown will, to a certain extent, dictate the future. Currently, it seems that there are two "camps", people who understand economics, and those who don't. At the end of the day, economics is at the top of the stream and everything else is downstream from that.  Our guest for today is Richard Duncan, who is a former consultant to the World Bank and the IMF. He is the author of three books on the global economic crisis. The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, and Cures predicted the global economic disaster that began in 2008 with extraordinary accuracy. It was an international best seller. Richard's second book was The Corruption of Capitalism, and his latest book is The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy.  Today we are going to discuss... How our guest anticipated this pandemic and the economic challenges it presented more than 6 weeks ago The FEDs actions and the $2.2T stimulus package Our guest outlines his major recessionary thesis regarding the expansion of credit and debt Learn more about our guest: Website: RichardDuncanEconomics.com Discount Code: " ASYM " for 50% off Macro Watch!

Richard Duncan is the author of three books on the global economic crisis, including the international bestseller, The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures, which forecast the global economic crisis of 2008 with extraordinary accuracy. Since beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986, Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington D.C., and headed equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok. He also worked as a consultant for the IMF in Thailand during the Asia Crisis. He is now the publisher of the video-newsletter Macro Watch, which can be found on his website: http://www.richardduncaneconomics.com/ Use Coupon code "Matters" for 50% off subscription to Macro Watch. Here are the questions for the podcast: What do you do? What happened to US and Global equity markets two weeks ago? Is this recession or depression? What kind of shape this recovery event will form - 'V', 'U' or something else? Why? Do you see this as short term recession or long term recession? Dow jumped higher by 1600 points today. Do you think we are in recovery mode? What should an investor do now? Will the real estate market crash because of Covid-19? Any real estate or finance books you recommend? Any website or apps if someone wants to understand more about investment, real estate etc? How can my listeners reach out to you?

Richard Duncan's Economic Predictions (Part 1) Discussion of China Trade Wars, where we are in the cycle, and new marco economic concepts. Use code "LANE" for 50% off the Macro Watch! https://richardduncaneconomics.com/product/macro-watch/ Subscribers to Macro Watch will receive: Approximately 25 Macro Watch videos per year. A new video will be uploaded roughly every two weeks. Richard Duncan’s two video courses: Capitalism In Crisis: The Global Economic Crisis Explained How The Economy Really Works Access to all past issues of Macro Watch* Richard Duncan is the author of three books on the global economic crisis, including the international bestseller, The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures, which forecast the global economic crisis of 2008. Since beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986, Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington D.C., and headed equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok. He also worked as a consultant for the IMF in Thailand during the Asia Crisis. He is now the publisher of the video-newsletter Macro Watch, which can be found on his website: http://www.richardduncaneconomics.com/

Discussion of China Trade Wars, where we are in the cycle, and new marco economic concepts.Use code "LANE" for 50% off the Macro Watch! https://richardduncaneconomics.com/product/macro-watch/Subscribers to Macro Watch will receive:Approximately 25 Macro Watch videos per year. A new video will be uploaded roughly every two weeks.Richard Duncan’s two video courses:Capitalism In Crisis: The Global Economic Crisis ExplainedHow The Economy Really WorksAccess to all past issues of Macro Watch* Richard Duncan is the author of three books on the global economic crisis,including the international bestseller, The Dollar Crisis: Causes,Consequences, Cures, which forecast the global economic crisis of 2008. Since beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986,Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMROAsset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for theWorld Bank in Washington D.C., and headed equity research departmentsfor James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok. He alsoworked as a consultant for the IMF in Thailand during the Asia Crisis.He is now the publisher of the video-newsletter Macro Watch, which can befound on his website:http://www.richardduncaneconomics.com/ See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Jason wraps up his interview with Macro Watch's Richard Duncan. The two tackle the topic of rising interest rates, better uses for going into further debt than giving it to tax reform, how the Fed will react to a tanking stock market, and what we can expect to see over the next few years. Key Takeaways: [1:00] What people don't realize about interest rates "People buy houses on a payment, not a price" [2:12] What the Fed will do if the market drops 10% and what else will happen if it drops 20% [5:31] What Richard wishes the government had done with the $1 trillion in new deficits that will occur from the new tax reform [10:06] Why Richard thinks the government can invest as wisely as private companies [14:32] What are the next few years going to look like? [17:05] People need to get very familiar with quantitative tightening Websites: www.RichardDuncanEconomics.com (promo code: GLOBAL for 50% off)

Jason Hartman welcomes Richard Duncan back to the show to discuss what's going on with fiscal policy and interest rates right now. In the first half of the interview Richard talks about how the trade imbalance with China has enriched the nation and brought millions out of poverty, as well as how the general public has no idea how much the Fed is actually tightening, and how that will impact interest rates. Key Takeaways: [3:04] Jason's theory on asset inflation and what it means if the millennials don't join the investor class like the baby boomers did [5:41] Why the future from an Asian perspective is much brighter than from a US perspective [7:50] Who's gotten the better end of the China/US trade imbalance? [13:27] Richard believes the Fed is tightening more than people are understanding [17:36] The Fed has been destroying at least $10 billion a month since October 2017 and it's going to get bigger [20:11] The Fed will have destroyed $1 trillion by the end of 2019 if they follow through on their announced plan [22:20] Is the Fed likely to make a course correction if rates go too high? Websites: www.RichardDuncanEconomics.com (promo code: GLOBAL for 50% off)

Jason wraps up his interview with Macro Watch's Richard Duncan. The two tackle the topic of rising interest rates, better uses for going into further debt than giving it to tax reform, how the Fed will react to a tanking stock market, and what we can expect to see over the next few years. Key Takeaways: [00:45] What people don't realize about interest rates "People buy houses on a payment, not a price" [1:56] What the Fed will do if the market drops 10% and what else will happen if it drops 20% [5:15] What Richard wishes the government had done with the $1 trillion in new deficits that will occur from the new tax reform [9:50] Why Richard thinks the government can invest as wisely as private companies [14:16] What are the next few years going to look like? [16:49] People need to get very familiar with quantitative tightening Websites: www.RichardDuncanEconomics.com (promo code: GLOBAL for 50% off)

Jason Hartman welcomes Richard Duncan back to the show to discuss what's going on with fiscal policy and interest rates right now. In the first half of the interview Richard talks about how the trade imbalance with China has enriched the nation and brought millions out of poverty, as well as how the general public has no idea how much the Fed is actually tightening, and how that will impact interest rates. Key Takeaways: [2:45] Jason's theory on asset inflation and what it means if the millennials don't join the investor class like the baby boomers did [5:22] Why the future from an Asian perspective is much brighter than from a US perspective [7:31] Who's gotten the better end of the China/US trade imbalance? [13:08] Richard believes the Fed is tightening more than people are understanding [17:17] The Fed has been destroying at least $10 billion a month since October 2017 and it's going to get bigger [19:52] The Fed will have destroyed $1 trillion by the end of 2019 if they follow through on their announced plan [22:01] Is the Fed likely to make a course correction if rates go too high? Websites: www.RichardDuncanEconomics.com (promo code: GLOBAL for 50% off)

Jason Hartman kicks off the show today asking his ultimate question: compared to what? It's a question that will serve you well in all aspects of your life and will guide you down the right path. He also wants to invite you to join him on any of his adventures scheduled for this year to make your vacation planning even easier. Then Jason wraps up his interview with Macro Watch's Richard Duncan. The two tackle the topic of rising interest rates, better uses for going into further debt than giving it to tax reform, how the Fed will react to a tanking stock market, and what we can expect to see over the next few years. Key Takeaways: [3:53] Always view things in perspective, and remember, COMPARED TO WHAT? [6:16] Meeting fellow investors is crucial to success [8:09] Why doesn't Jason want you to plan any vacations this year? [11:41] Over Thanksgiving, while re-reading The Art of the Deal, Jason realized that Trump is a New York liberal Richard Duncan Interview: [14:26] What people don't realize about interest rates "People buy houses on a payment, not a price" [15:38] What the Fed will do if the market drops 10% and what else will happen if it drops 20% [18:57] What Richard wishes the government had done with the $1 trillion in new deficits that will occur from the new tax reform [23:31] Why Richard thinks the government can invest as wisely as private companies [27:58] What are the next few years going to look like? [30:30] People need to get very familiar with quantitative tightening Websites: www.RichardDuncanEconomics.com (promo code: GLOBAL for 50% off) www.JasonHartmanUniversity.com www.JasonHartmanIcehotel.com www.VentureAllianceMastermind.com

Jason Hartman welcomes Richard Duncan back to the show to discuss what's going on with fiscal policy and interest rates right now. In the first half of the interview Richard talks about how the trade imbalance with China has enriched the nation and brought millions out of poverty, as well as how the general public has no idea how much the Fed is actually tightening, and how that will impact interest rates. Key Takeaways: [9:19] Jason's theory on asset inflation and what it means if the millennials don't join the investor class like the baby boomers did [11:56] Why the future from an Asian perspective is much brighter than from a US perspective [14:05] Who's gotten the better end of the China/US trade imbalance? [19:42] Richard believes the Fed is tightening more than people are understanding [23:51] The Fed has been destroying at least $10 billion a month since October 2017 and it's going to get bigger [26:26] The Fed will have destroyed $1 trillion by the end of 2019 if they follow through on their announced plan [28:35] Is the Fed likely to make a course correction if rates go too high? Websites: www.RichardDuncanEconomics.com (promo code: GLOBAL for 50% off) www.JasonHartmanUniversity.com www.JasonHartmanIcehotel.com www.VentureAllianceMastermind.com

Are margin accounts a smart way to build a portfolio? Ever thought about borrowing money to invest? Don’t do it! At least, not till after you listen to this episode of The Goldstein on Gelt Show! Margin accounts, borrowing money to invest, is a risky investment strategy that shouldn’t be done without careful consideration Find out what a margin account is and why it may be a bad idea. Four questions to consider before creating a margin account Doug has four questions that every investor should ask if they are tempted to borrow money for investing. Margin accounts are a high-risk move, and most people aren’t comfortable with such a drastic investment strategy. Ask these four questions to decide if borrowing money makes financial sense for you. Richard Duncan, the developer of Macro Watch and author of The Dollar Crisis and The New Depression, forecasts an upcoming recession in the global economy. Richard also points to recent events that could lead to an American recession. He and Doug discuss how investors can plan for economic downturns. Listen to discover some investment strategies that can help you weather the storm if the market bubble bursts. Check out Richard Duncan’s show Marco Watch for more of his insights. Visit www.richardduncaneconomics.com. If you’re not already receiving updates on new episodes, sign up now, and as a special bonus, receive Doug’s free ebook The Retirement Planning Book. Also, Doug would like to know, why do you listen to Goldstein on Gelt? If you have an answer, he’d love to hear it!

#7: Get Rich Education’s inaugural interview is with world-renowned economist, author, consultant, and speaker Richard Duncan. He informs us that economic growth is no longer driven by production expansion, but rather by credit expansion. Richard looks into his crystal ball. He tells us what to expect for 2015 and 2016 with respect to the stock market and the economy. Richard has kindly provided Get Rich Education listeners with a 50% discount to his Macro Watch video newsletter. Use the Coupon Code “gre”. Learn more about Richard Duncan and subscribing to his video newsletter, Macro Watch,at: www.richardduncaneconomics.com 00:50  Keith will tell us how to avoid directly paying Private Mortgage Insurance on your home in the next episode. 03:52 Richard Duncan interview begins. 06:31  Today’s economy works completely different than what is in our textbooks. 07:34  Economic growth is no longer driven by investment and savings, but rather credit creation and consumption. 09:56  Since 1952, 2%+inflation-adjusted credit growth is necessary in the US to avoid recession. 12:20  If you want to invest wisely, you have to understand that the government now manages our economy. 13:56  Prospects for inflation and deflation. 19:48  Richard provides his economic outlook for 2015 and 2016. It includes predictions about the stock market and quantitative easing. 22:30  Opinion and commentary about real estate and real assets as investment. Why homes with land are better investments than condominiums. 24:40  Richard discusses how a 25-year-old investing enthusiast should think and act today. 31:31  U.S. government money could be better used on new industries and technologies. www.richardduncaneconomics.com

McAlvany Weekly Commentary About this week's show: Fed will announce QE4, gold will rise Every QE has had to be bigger than the last China buys gold and copper to exit the dollar Offer from Richard Duncan: 50% discount to Macro Watch: http://www.richardduncaneconomics.com Use code: commentary About the guest: Richard Duncan is the author of numerous books including: The New […] The post Richard Duncan: QE4? “They'll have to.” appeared first on McAlvany Weekly Commentary.

This week, Richard Duncan, publisher of quarterly video newsletter Macro Watch, joins Stansberry Radio to talk about the future of the global credit nightmare.Porter starts the show off by revealing a news story most of us probably missed. Then, Richard joins the show and explains what he is seeing in the markets as a very important tipping point... Find out why he says all the excess liquidity that we've been enjoying for many years is about to evaporate in the third quarter.Richard says that if we want to make money, we have to anticipate what the government is going to do next... Here is where you get his prediction.He is also predicting that precious-metal prices will be pushed considerably higher when the announcement for QE4 is released... and you'll get all the details behind his reasoning.Porter ends the show with some more headlines for our listeners, including the controversy over the car service Uber and his commentary on the new trouble in Iraq.

This week, we sit down with Richard Duncan, publisher of quarterly video-newsletter, Macro Watch. Porter and Richard comment on China absorbing all of the world's inflation, the U.S budget deficit, how much weaker the global economy will become in the next 12 months, and the possibility for another emerging-markets bubble in the next decade.