Podcasts about premortem

In this episode of Class Disrupted, hosts Michael Horn and Diane Tavenner chat with Rebecca Winthrop, a senior fellow and director at the Brookings Institution, about the impact of AI on education. The conversation kicks off by highlighting Rebecca’s idea of a premortem approach, which involves anticipating the negative impacts of AI before they occurContinue reading "The Premortem on AI in Education with Rebecca Winthrop"

Does your EHS program have a negative reputation within your organization? Are you tired of always just being associated with regulations, instead of being seen as an integral business driver? Welcome back Subena Colligan, a seasoned industrial hygienist and safety professional, who leads EHS professionals towards becoming strategic business partners. Her approach focuses on developing elite EHS programs by aligning them with business outcomes and risk tolerance. She advises on how to engage with C-suite executives by understanding company priorities and building trust. Subena employs an audit-strategize-resolve model to gather data, create strategic plans, and implement quick wins, facilitating transformation over an 18-month period. She also emphasizes the importance of self-awareness, emotional intelligence, and concentrating on controllable factors during periods of change and uncertainty.Subena Colligan's LinkedInErnst & Young EHS Maturity ModelMcKinsey & CompanyThe Changing World Order by Ray DalioWall Street Journal Article: It's Called a Premortem—and It's the Most Productive Thing You'll Do All YearThe 5 Languages of Appreciation in the Workplace

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating over 13 years broadcasting on the internet. On Tuesday's show, we visit with our Florida State Senator Kathleen Passidomo about the special legislative session called by Governor DeSantis in January. We continue our conversation with Boo Mortenson about the concept of creating a “Premortem” as substitution for unproductive New Year's resolutions. The President of Less Government Seton Motley and I discuss the Fed and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. We also visit Linda Harden about California's response to the wildfires as well as the plans for Trump's Inauguration. Please join us tomorrow when we visit with Chairman Emeritus of Cato Institute Bob Levy and Professor Andrew Joppa. Please access this or past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

One writer in the Wall Street Journal calls his annual ritual a premortem - picturing how he will feel on his death bed. What does he want to accomplish before that day comes? Where should he put his time and energy? It's an interesting exercise. KSL Newsradio's Amanda Dickson asked her guests about it on A Woman's View. Her guests this week are Francine Gianni, former Executive Director of the Utah Department of Commerce and Ronda Menlove, former Utah State Representative, educator and administrator from Utah State University. 

01:00 Power went out so I talked to people IRL 05:30 Matt Continetti on the California inferno and the rebuild of the rules regime at Meta, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_t42Qzg2QRI 08:00 Rick Caruso: There's no water in the Palisades, https://www.foxla.com/video/1573156 39:40 Mark Halperin: Biden's decline is one of the biggest scandals in media history, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBulWDSCRi8 44:00 NR: Mayor Out of the Country as Los Angeles Burns, Residents Plead for Help, https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/mayor-out-of-the-country-as-los-angeles-burns-residents-plead-for-help/ 57:00 JF GARIEPY ON THE RUN FOR MURDER!, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2y3jLpPpaPk 1:19:00 Mark Halperin: Trump Transition, Democrat Realignment, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXXlZPaC3To 2:02:00 The Paranoid Style Of Adam Curtis, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=139331 2:13:00 WSJ: It's Called a Premortem—and It's the Most Productive Thing You'll Do All Year, https://www.wsj.com/arts-culture/books/new-years-resolutions-ron-shaich-cava-panera-c0fb7922 2:37:00 The next prime minister of Canada: How do you like them apples?, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_1BJUi2Z04 2:39:40 'I'm not going to allow you to interrupt me': Pierre Poilievre has terse exchange while taking questions, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjDCf3Wv-_U 3:30:30 25 Ways To Improve Your Mental Health In 2025, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8gkwkb-26M 4:10:00 My miserable Seventh-Day Adventist childhood, https://www.lukeford.net/luke_ford/bio/l1.html

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating over 13 years broadcasting on the internet. On Tuesday's show, we visit with our Florida State Senator Kathleen Passidomo about her planned meetings for constituent feedback before the next legislative session. We visit with Boo Mortenson about the concept of creating a “Premortem” as substitution for unproductive New Year's resolutions. We also visit Linda Harden about Meta's big change in censorship and moderation rules for 2025. Please join us tomorrow when we visit with Chairman Emeritus of Cato Institute Bob Levy and Professor Andrew Joppa. Please access this or past shows at your convenience on my web site, social media platforms or podcast platforms.

Thank you so much for listening to the Bob Harden Show, celebrating over 13 years broadcasting on the internet. On Tuesday's show, we visit with our Florida State Senator Kathleen Passidomo about her planned meetings for constituent feedback before the next legislative session. We visit with Boo Mortenson about the concept of creating a “Premortem” … The post Creating a “Premortem” appeared first on Bob Harden Show.

Today, I bring you my conversation with an absolute legend, Gary Klein. Gary is a renowned pioneer in naturalistic decision-making. He has extensively researched how experienced professionals (e.g. experienced physicians, firefighters, police officers, etc.) make decisions in high-pressure environments, relying on their intuition without extensive analysis. This led Gary to develop the “Recognition Primed Decision Model”. And if you've ever come across the PreMortem technique, Gary invented that. The PreMortem is something that helps decision-makers anticipate failures before they occur. He's also collaborated with Nobel laureate, the late Daniel Kahneman, but did so as “collaborative adversaries” as he has a different take on cognitive biases. And you will hear more about that directly from Gary. Gary's work also inspired Malcolm Gladwell's book, Blink, and so much more. He is an absolute legend. In this conversation, we talk about the role of intuition and decision-making in reducing errors and enhancing insights, which Gary has done extensive work on. Gary shares some great context and advice on the PreMortem and so much more. I think Gary's work is essential to understanding and practising quality decision-making. Show notes: Gary's website Naturalistic Decision-Making - www.naturalisticdecisionmaking.org Gary's firm, Shadow Box Training: www.naturalisticdecisionmaking.org Gary's “Masterclass in Practical Decision-Making” QR code to the masterclass: Gary's latest book, Snapshots of the Mind Recognition-primed Decision Model PreMortem method Gary's article with Daniel Kahneman, “A Failure to Disagree” Gary's book Seeing What Others Don't – The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights _ _ _ _ _ _ Like what you heard? Subscribe: https://thedecisionmaking.studio/ Learn more about The Decision-Making Studio: https://thedecisionmaking.studio/podcast Sign up for our “Decision Navigators” course: https://lnkd.in/eMZSPft4  

TUNE IN TO LEARN:What could your future hold if you asked yourself the right questions every day?     Join me to learn how questions can boost your motivation and shape your strategic thinking to make success most likely.  These questions might even help you make a million bucks next year.    We'll also talk about decision-making tips for a fulfilling life from high achievers in investment banking.    Thanks for being with me on this journey.  Let's go for a win this week!    "Decisive: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work"    Text Me Your Thoughts and IdeasSupport the show Brought to you by Angela Shurina EXECUTIVE HEALTH AND OPTIMAL PERFORMANCE COACH Change in days - not in years!

Tara is joined by Politico senior writer Marc Caputo, and they discuss the upcoming presidential debate between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. They discuss how it will be moderated and what a win would look like for each of them. They also talk about what each could do to get under their opponent's skin. For more of Tara's reporting, please sign up for her newsletter, 'The Best and the Brightest,' at puck.news/tarapalmeri and use the discount code TARA20. Host: Tara Palmeri Guest: Marc Caputo Producer: Brian H. Waters Production Supervision: Conor Nevins Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Doing a premortem is very simple. Assume that your draft plan (or project) *has* failed. You and your team now brainstorm reasons to explain why it bombed.

On this week's episode we discuss all the reasons how the World Soul Saga could fail, and how Blizzard could avoid failure. So join us for our own little Premortem!  Support us on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/livelaughlore Follow us! Twitter: https://twitter.com/live_laugh_lore TikTok = https://www.tiktok.com/@livelaughlorecast Instagram = https://www.instagram.com/livelaughlorecast/ YouTube = https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCawbWDBP7qEl24CZ2GUoSGg

We're honored that you've joined us!  Thank you!We're currently being downloaded in 111 countries!We deliver the facts … not fiction, covering every story with integrity and passion.In this explosive, follow-up, investigative interview, we further shine the light of the truth and drill deeper, farther and wider with Jana Guyewski Latigar (the sister of Crystal McCrory Jones).♦ We have word that KNOE News Channel 8 has a team of investigators actively working this case and will soon have an investigative report on the fact pattern regarding Crystal's mysterious, untimely and shocking death.♦ We've uncovered shocking details regarding the Forensic Pathologist in this case — and devastating errors that led to the exoneration of the West Memphis Three.On February 9th, 2023 in the sleepy town of Oak Grove, Louisiana, (population: ~2,275), Crystal was found dead in her home from what was reported to be a “self-inflicted” gunshot wound to the head.The West Carroll Parish Sheriff's Office (WCPSO) had this case “solved” in 105 minutes — less time than it takes to drive from Oak Grove to Shreveport, LA.From the initial deputy being notified by WCPSO to perform a “welfare check on the deceased” — law enforcement would've had to find Crystal's body; secure the crime scene, gathering, bagging and tagging all relevant evidence; canvass the neighborhood; track down any and all investigatory leads; interview any/all relevant suspects; complete all investigative written reports, while preserving the chain of custody … in under 2 hours!This would be amazing if it happened.  In fact, it DID NOT happen this way!  Police reports were strewn with misspelled words and inaccuracies, timelines of the spouse that don't match up.  Premortem bruising was ignored and overlooked — which is a clear indication of a pre-death vicious struggle.♦ What was the hurry?   Why the rush to judgement?♦ Why the hostile, combative responses from the Sheriff when family members of the deceased simply sought information into the death of their loved one?   Isn't it normal for a devastated family to have questions, to seek answers?In this exclusive interview Jana sheds personal insight from her trauma-informed experience on courageously, (slowly) working her way through the life-altering grief stemming from her sister's death.  She shares insightful coping strategies for anyone dealing with similar traumas. Also:♦ We talk about Complicated Grief, which can occur as a result of the traumatic and unexpected death of a loved one. We explore the Cycle of Grief.  Everyone experiences grief — it is part of our human experience.♦ Other residents of West Carroll Parish have shared their concerns that there've been other cases that were quickly ruled a “suicide” when the facts weren't so clear.Follow Justice for Crystal McCrory Jones (the Facebook Group honoring Crystal's life and memory) and sign the Change.org petition which seeks to press law enforcement officials to re-open an investigation surrounding her mysterious death.Tune in and be educated and empowered!

In today's episode, we do a journaling exercise to provide a new lens on developing your own career roadmap.We're going to practice the power of hindsight, finding our wiser selves, and ultimately looking forward and backward...at the same time. It sounds a little odd, but it's all based in solid cognitive science. If you have a notoriously hard time figuring out your career path, I'd invite you to participate!

In episode 154, we discussed the concept of a project premortem. That discussion inspired Carol to schedule her own premortem for a new 2-year project that her company is about to undertake. Given the fact that her team's work won't be sharable for at least 18-months, she's wants to make sure that her premortem is as effective as it can be. As such, we're going to have ourselves a little premortem premortem discussion on the show.Follow the show and be sure to join the discussion on Discord! Our website is workingcode.dev and we're @WorkingCodePod on Twitter and Instagram. New episodes drop weekly on Wednesday.And, if you're feeling the love, support us on Patreon.With audio editing and engineering by ZCross Media.Full show notes and transcript here.

Cognitive psychologist Gary Klein has spent his career examining how decisions get made across real-world scenarios. He is well-known for creating the PreMortem Method of Risk Assessment, an risk management exercise that helps project team members imagine potential problems upfront, rather than examining shortfalls in hindsight. In this episode, we dig into the how and why of Klein's premortem practice, what differentiates it from other strategic tools, as well as the challenges of integrating a culture of curiosity into established ways of working. 

What're the three most important skills a leader can possess? How can you prompt your organization to destigmatize failure? How do you embrace your imposter syndrome? In this episode, Heather Tulk answers these questions and more. What You'll Learn: 1. 3 traits of every successful leader and how to apply them 2. The scarcest asset all leaders possess 3. The secret to destigmatizing failure within your organization 4. Premortem vs postmortem visualization 5. The absence of fear as an authentic leader 6. The 3 P's of contributing to your community: People, Planet and Profits 7. You're not there yet, but you're already enough mentality Who is Heather Tulk? Heather is an experienced CEO and Board Director accomplished in P&L management, business transformation, digital businesses, and leading through disruption. Heather recently joined Telus Business Solutions as their President of Commercial and Public Sector. Heather has received a number of industry awards, including being named to the Canada Diversity 50, Canada's Most Powerful Women's Top 100 through the Women's Executive Network and Canada's Top 40 under 40. Heather passionately believes in helping make communities better than we found them, and is involved in several causes for mental health, youth diversity and inclusion.  Follow Heather: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/heathertulk/?originalSubdomain=ca More of Do Good to Lead Well: Website: https://craigdowden.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/craigdowden/ --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/craig-dowden/message

Es klingt paradox und doch ist es so: Wer das Scheitern eines Projekts hypothetisch durchspielt, kann mit besseren Ergebnissen rechnen. Und zwar um ganze 30%. Das belegen Studien aus dem Jahre 1998. Nicht verwunderlich also, dass immer mehr Unternehmen die sogenannte “Premortem-Analyse” zu einem festen Bestandteil ihrer Prozesse gemacht haben. Doch was macht die Premortem-Analyse so wertvoll für den weiteren Projektverlauf, wen brauche ich dazu und wie führe ich eine solche Analyse durch? Diese Fragen beantwortet uns heute Digital- und Agile-Experte Andreas Diehl. Als Berater und Coach unterstützt Andreas Unternehmen seit vielen Jahren bei der Einführung digitaler Technologien und selbstorganisierter Arbeitsprinzipien. Viel Spaß beim Reinhören!

This week on the show we throw back to one of our most requested episodes, Bryce's conversation with Dr. Gary Klein. Gary is the creator of PreMortem Analysis, a powerful tool designed to help leaders understand the ways their plans could fail so that they can ensure that they don't. In addition to discussing the origins of PreMortem and how it is used, they talk about how humans make decisions and how leaders can make better ones – particularly in these challenging times. Gary also discusses his latest innovation, a training tool he calls ShadowBox. Dr. Gary A. Klein is a cognitive psychologist and one of the world's leading experts on human decision making. He is the author of several books, including Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions and Seeing What Others Don't: The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights. Gary pioneered the naturalistic decision-making movement and is the president of ShadowBox Training. In this episode: What is naturalistic decision making and what it reveals about how people make decisions How Gary analyzed the way in which people really make decisions, particularly under time pressures What leaders can learn from firefighters in order to make better decisions What is ShadowBox and how it works Sign up to the Red Team Thinking Community - Use the coupon code THINKINGLEADER for a free 30-day trial: https://community.redteamthinking.com/checkout/general-membership Want to find out if you're a Red Team Thinker? Click here to take a free assessment and get your personalized report: https://www.redteamthinking.com/rttassessment Visit our website: https://redteamthinking.com Watch this episode on YouTube: www.red-team.tv Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/redteamthinking/ Connect with Bryce: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brycehoffman/ Connect with Marcus: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marcusdimbleby/ Bestselling business author Bryce Hoffman and agility expert Marcus Dimbleby talk about decision making, strategy, resilience and leadership with some of the world's best CEOs, cognitive scientists, writers, and thinkers in this weekly podcast. Each episode offers new ideas and insights you can use to become a better leader and a better thinker – because bad leaders react, good leaders plan, and great leaders think!

With Elon Musk taking over Twitter, Brad and Steve reflect on their history on the platform, their move to blogging, podcasting, and much more “inside baseball”. You can find the episode on: iTunes and Apple Podcasts Spotify Android Stitcher Check out our exclusive community offers on Patreon here. Get Do Hard Things and The Practice of Groundedness on audible (Or in… The post #150 – The Twitter Premortem appeared first on The Growth Equation.

Hello Wizards, Today it's just you and me and I wanna share my thoughts on how to use premortem to create better business outcomes. Sharing with you actionable steps on applying this thinking process.  In This Episode: [00:30] The inspiration of this episode. [02:01] Why should you practice premortem? [04:20] Actionable steps [05:15] Creating the disaster. [07:45] Reason for suppression.   Book Reference: The Obstacle is the Way by Ryan Holiday Links and References: Wizards of Amazon: https://www.wizardsofecom.com/ Wizards of Amazon Courses: https://wizardsofamazon.mykajabi.com/a/27566/x6Kwkz6p Wizards of Amazon Meetup: https://www.meetup.com/South-Florida-FBA/ Wizards of Amazon on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/WizardsofAmazon/ Wizards of Amazon on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wizardsofecom/

On today's show, we spoke to Fabric Risk Co-Founder, Rick Bookstaber about identifying risks for advisors, lifestyle characteristics and risks, the MSCI factor model, scenario testing, and much more. Find complete shownotes on our blogs...  Ben Carlson's A Wealth of Common Sense  Michael Batnick's The Irrelevant Investor  Like us on Facebook  And feel free to shoot us an email at animalspiritspod@gmail.com with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation. 

For LBW Book Club, the team read Annie Duke's “Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts” recently.  A couple of concepts really stood out, and impacted our daily planning decisions greatly.  First, think about your best decision for the past year, and then think about your worst decision… Ready?  I bet you didn't think about the best and worst “decision”, but the best and worst “outcome/result”.  The resulting bias is everywhere.  Just because you have a positive outcome (you came home safely), doesn't mean you made a good decision (you decided to drive while drunk), and certainly doesn't mean you should repeat that decision over and over.  Secondly, the concept of backcasting and premortem: this is a planning method that starts with defining a desirable (or failed) future and then working backward to identify policies and programs that will connect that specified future to the present.  Oh man, isn't this why we do financial planning precisely?!  Third, the power of group thinking and decision pod.  Don't just talk to people that you know will confirm your belief, but have a decision pod with different knowledge, cultural background, and skill sets, to review your decision from different angles.  Again, don't discuss the result, but talk about the decision: how did we get here?  Overall, we recommend this book to anyone who strives to make better decisions in life!

This episode contains a keynote delivered by Gary Klein at the NDM Association's 2022 virtual Open House. Dr. Klein pioneered the Naturalistic Decision Making movement in 1989. He is well-known for his work in advancing a number of decision-making tools, methods, and cognitive models. These include the Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) model, the Data/Frame model of sensemaking, the PreMortem method of risk assessment, techniques for Cognitive Task Analysis, and the ShadowBox training approach. Klein is also the best-selling author of Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions, and four other books plus three co-edited volumes. His newest book, Snapshots of the Mind, is scheduled for publication in October. Learn more and register for the 2022 NDM conference at naturalisticdecisionmaking.org.

186 The Premortem to improve your business results  This week on The Business of Healthcare Podcast I discuss what is a Premortem?   It is when you ask yourself and your team what you can do to make this initiative fail, then work backwards to ensure that these things are avoided.  It's a great exercise to help you decide what you do NOT want to happen.  We asked the simple question “what could we do to make this fail?”    Work with me    I'm Tara Humphrey and I'm the founder of THC Primary Care, a leading healthcare consultancy. I provide project and network management to Primary Care Networks and consulting support to clinical leads. To date, I've worked with 11 Training Hubs and 12 Primary Care Networks.  I have over 20 years of project management and business development experience across the private and public sector and have an MBA in Leadership and Management in Healthcare. I'm also published in the London Journal of Primary Care and the author of over 200 blogs.     For more weekly insights and advice sign up to my newsletter.  Improving the Business of Healthcare – One Episode at a Time     Thanks for tuning into this week's episode of the Business of Healthcare Podcast. If you enjoyed this episode, head over to Apple Podcasts to subscribe, leave your honest review, and share your favourite episodes on social media. Find us on Twitter, Instagram and LinkedIn or visit our website – THC Primary Care.    DKMS – DKMS is an international charity dedicated to the fight against blood cancer and blood disorders. To join the registry please click here  

As the new year begins, we discuss how to best plan for the year ahead with a couple of simple, yet important tips to set your year up for financial success.

Dave Smith PhD (d.d.smith @ mmu.ac.uk) is a HCPC registered Sport and Chartered Exercise Psychologist and a Senior Lecturer in Sport and Exercise Psychology at Manchester Metropolitan University. Dave has deep interests in high intensity training, psychological skills training, and decision-making processes in sports.   Listen to Parts 1-7: 232 – Dave Smith PhD – How to make Better Decisions in your Business (Part 1) 251 – Dave Smith PhD – How to Make Better Decisions in your Business and Life (Part 2) 314 – Dave Smith PhD – How to Make Better Decisions in your Business and in Life (Part 3) 317 – Dave Smith PhD – How to Make Better Decisions in your Business and Life (Part 4) 318 – Dave Smith PhD – How to Make Better Decisions in your Business and Life (Part 5) 320 – Dave Smith PhD – How to Make Better Decisions in your Business and Life (Part 6) 321 – Dave Smith PhD – How to Make Better Decisions in your Business and Life (Part 7) In this episode, Dave joins me for Part 8 of our Decision Making series to show you how to make better decisions in your life and business. He talks about performing pre-mortems, benefits of negative thinking, sunk cost fallacy, overcoming analysis paralysis, and much more. Build a great strength training studio This podcast episode is brought to you by ARX Do you struggle to attract and retain clients in your strength training studio? ARX machines use breakthrough motorized resistance and computer software to give your clients the perfect workout every time, so you can start to deliver great workouts and grow your business with confidence. Get $500 OFF by going to ARXFit.com/HIB and booking a call with the ARX sales team – Book Here For all of the show notes, links and resources - Click Here

Mastermind Tickets: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/acet-culture-simplified-mastermind-tickets-171302770197 Dr. Gary Klein: Gary Klein, Ph.D., authored Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions, and four other books plus three co-edited volumes. He is known for the cognitive models he described, such as the Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) model, the Data/Frame model of sensemaking, the Management By Discovery model of planning in complex settings, and the Triple Path Model of Insight. He developed methods including the PreMortem method of risk assessment, techniques for Cognitive Task Analysis, the ShadowBox training approach, and also pioneered the Naturalistic Decision Making movement in 1989. Dr. Klein has decades of work experience in dozens of work domains, including military, healthcare, and emergency response. The company he started in 1978, Klein Associates, grew to 37 employees by the time he sold it in 2005. He kicked off his new company, ShadowBox LLC, in 2014. His hobbies include handball, watching movies, and the Asian game of Go. You can find all of Gary's books, publications, and more at www.gary-klein.com

Gary Klein is a research psychologist famous for pioneering in the field of Naturalistic Decision Making. Klein developed a Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) model to describe how people actually make decisions in natural settings. The RPD model has been incorporated into Army doctrine for command and control.  He also developed methods of Cognitive Task Analysis for uncovering the tacit knowledge that goes into decision making.  More recently, he has been investigating sense making, replanning, and anticipatory thinking. Klein has developed a PreMortem technique for helping organizations with risk management. This conversation explores how experts make informed decisions in the real world and ways we can all become better decision makers!  Watch on YouTube Show Notes & Transcript Subscribe to my Newsletter Connect with us! Whatgotyouthere Eight sleep    is revolutionizing what a great night of sleep means. Receive $150 off by using code Sean at checkout or go to eightsleep.com/Sean. NuSkool Snacks Collagen Protein Bars https://nuskoolsnacks.com/

Tue, 17 Aug 2021 15:00:00 +0000 https://keine-zeit.podigee.io/49-when-3 176c3825f6dec32dc04d873713d86d2e „Wir sollten nicht glauben, was wir denken.“ Review When. The scientific secrets of perfect timing von Daniel H. Pink. Amazon | Apple Books Diskussion Chris beginnt mit einem Premortem, um sich durch Mix' gute Laune nicht den Tag verderben zu lassen. Damit hat die Show einen guten Start gefunden. Die Midlife Crisis, bei Menschen und Affen und Projekten. Die Gefahr: Die Empfänglichkeit für neue Ideen wird größer. Die Lösung: Deadlines, Deadlines und nochmals Deadlines. Wir sollten nicht den Anfang und das Ende aus den Augen verlieren. Die Motivation der Kette, die nicht reißen darf. Chris möchte zuerst die gute Nachricht hören. Chris' schlechtes Gedächtnis und unsere nahezu immer falschen Erinnerungen: „Das Positive konservieren, das Negative analysieren.“ „Wir müssen ganz einfach gut zu uns selbst sein.“ Hacks Mix: Sich selbst austricksen und kleine Erfolge mehr zelebrieren. Chris: PostIts mit Anmerkungen Nuggets „Affen kaufen sich keine roten Cabrios.“ „Der grünere Nachbarsgarten.“ „Ich seh' dich leuchten in deiner dunklen Ecke.“ „Wir müssen uns nur selbst betrügen.“ „Wir sollten nicht glauben, was wir denken.“ 49 full „Wir sollten nicht glauben, was wir denken.“ no Produktivität,Effizienz,Zeitmanagement,Ziele,Gewohnheiten,Routinen,Organisation,Kommunikation,Fokussiertheit,Motivation Michael Widemann & Christian W. Huber

Visit prrp.website for links to Patreon, merch, leaving reviews, et al.

Tue, 10 Aug 2021 15:00:00 +0000 https://keine-zeit.podigee.io/48-when-2 e8f90e5b31eefe3ab657368770e2b0b2 „Fang an, bevor du anfängst.“ Review When. The scientific secrets of perfect timing von Daniel H. Pink. Amazon | Apple Books Diskussion Chris arbeitet mit PostIts zur Vorbereitung seiner Show, während Mix zu viel Papier rumfliegen hat. Mix und Chris sind immer noch beim richtigen Timing. Verpasste, vermeintlich einmalige, Gelegenheiten. Das Hospital of Doom. Die Wichtigkeit, einen guten Start hinzubekommen. Der 31. Dezember eines jeden Jahres. Chris mag diesen Tag gar nicht und holt weit aus, um eine Lanze für das „Jetzt“ zu brechen. Chris lüftet das Geheimnis, warum Mix so lange kein Licht in seinem Teil des Studios hatte. Es war einfach nur Neid! Jeder achte auf seine Prime Time! Die Magie einer Checkliste. Mix liebt seinen Mittagsschlaf und schwärmt von einem „Premortem“. Alles, was gut läuft, hakt unser Gehirn sofort ab. Chris kauft keine M&Ms mehr. Chris dreht Mix das Licht wieder aus. Aus Zorn und Boshaftigkeit. Hacks Mix: Premortem Chris: - Nuggets „Die sollen sich nicht so anstellen.“ „Ich schüttel mein altes Leben ab und beginne ein neues.“ „Kenne deine Schwachstellen!“ „Fang an, bevor du anfängst.“ „Ich bin schon lange am Ende.“ „Projekte durchdingsen.“ 48 full „Fang an, bevor du anfängst.“ no Produktivität,Effizienz,Zeitmanagement,Ziele,Gewohnheiten,Routinen,Organisation,Kommunikation,Fokussiertheit,Motivation Michael Widemann & Christian W. Huber

Host Daniel Bauer provides weekday motivation for the modern educator. Listeners can expect tools and tricks from a variety of sources: inspirational books, stories from the mastermind, and weekly challenges. Learn more and listen to the category defining leadership conversation for school leaders, Better Leaders Better Schools at https://betterleadersbetterschools.com   Copyright © 2021 Better Leaders Better Schools

Siempre nos preocupamos por entender porqué un proyecto o situación fracasó, aquí platicamos que hacer para evitarlo. The post #116 PREMORTEM: anticipando el fracaso · Moises Polishuk · Dixo first appeared on DIXO.

Siempre nos preocupamos por entender porqué un proyecto o situación fracasó, aquí platicamos que hacer para evitarlo.

This week, Bryce talks with Dr. Gary Klein, creator of PreMortem Analysis, a powerful tool designed to help leaders understand the ways their plans could fail so that they can ensure that they don't. In addition to discussing the origins of PreMortem and how it is used, they talk about how humans make decisions and how leaders can make better ones – particularly in these challenging times. Gary also discusses his latest innovation, a training tool he calls ShadowBox. Dr. Gary A. Klein is a cognitive psychologist and one of the world's leading experts on human decision making. He is the author of several books, including Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions and Seeing What Others Don't: The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights. Gary pioneered the naturalistic decision-making movement and is the president of ShadowBox Training.

This week, Bryce talks with Dr. Gary Klein, creator of PreMortem Analysis, a powerful tool designed to help leaders understand the ways their plans could fail so that they can ensure that they don't. In addition to discussing the origins of PreMortem and how it is used, they talk about how humans make decisions and how leaders can make better ones – particularly in these challenging times. Gary also discusses his latest innovation, a training tool he calls ShadowBox. Dr. Gary A. Klein is a cognitive psychologist and one of the world's leading experts on human decision making. He is the author of several books, including Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions and Seeing What Others Don't: The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights. Gary pioneered the naturalistic decision-making movement and is the president of ShadowBox Training.

Today I am delighted to have Matthew Confer on the show to be share insights from (and beyond) his popular Ted Talk: Before you Decide: 3 Steps to Better Decision Making.  This talk came out before the pandemic, and Matthew also shares with us about how he and the team at Abilitie helped clients to shift through these changing times to make better decisions when there were so many unexpected shifts and choices to be made (and with a lot on the line).  As the VP of Strategy and Business Development, he definitely knows a lot on these topics and he has fascinating insights I can't wait to share with you.  Show Notes: [00:07] In today's episode I'm excited to introduce you to Matthew Confer to share the three things you need to do before you decide. [02:49] Matthew shares more about who he is and what he does. He works for a company called Abilitie and does leadership training simulations.  [04:06] They focus on three core competencies of effective leaders: people management skills, financial acumen, and strategic thinking and decision making.  [05:53] Melina shares how she did a similar simulation in college.  [08:00] Adaptability is one of the things that we want rising leaders and executives to have.  [09:16] There is a very big difference between doing and thinking about doing. [12:22] The biggest part of the simulation is that each of the participants have three time tokens of where they want to invest their time. It looks at how you piece together all the things we struggle with as leaders and make the best decision of how to use your limited time.  [15:11] From his experiences, Matthew found that there are specific traits that top teams do.   [16:18] After years of observation, he created a decision-making framework with the 3 steps for better decision-making (as showcased in his Ted Talk). Step 1) Challenge the Constraints.  [17:41] When you are looking to apply behavioral science, the spot where most people go wrong is understanding the problem that you are trying to solve.  [18:42] Time pressure is a form of stress and it changes the way we make a decision.  [20:24] Just because you challenge the constraints doesn't mean you have to go and make a crazy decision. It just helps to see what is holding you back from making this huge breakthrough.  [21:01] Step 2) Embrace a Premortem. A premortem is so powerful because you are conditioned to not think you are going to fail.   [23:44] Planning fallacy is closely tied to optimism bias where we think we are going to be faster, quicker, and better.  [25:59] 80% of us think that we are above-average drivers. He noticed this in the simulation with leaders also.  [27:10] Step 3) Check the Basics. When decisions get more complex, small details tend to get missed.  [29:39] Taking the time to make sure you have really identified your basics is super important.  [30:01] Matthew shares an example of step one: challenging the constraints. The clients he saw that were most successful during the pandemic were the ones that threw the rule book out the window.  [32:03] It is important to reframe a problem when it comes to you. If your status quo has been shifted you should not feel like you have to do what you said you are going to do before.  [32:57] Next he shares an example for step two.  [34:12] If you're not having a conversation about what could go wrong, you are really missing an opportunity to plan effectively.  You need to put plans B and C in place to get in front of some of the problems.  [35:27] You need to be assured when you are making a drastic change or big decision, make sure those small details aren't missed along the way.  [38:23] One of Matthew's favorite decision-making techniques is the “press release method”.  [40:31] Writing what someone might say about you in the worst-case scenario is an interesting practice to help keep you on track so you don't mess up because you know how bad it can be at the end.    [42:45] Melina shares her closing thoughts.  [44:37] Melina's first book, What Your Customer Wants and Can't Tell You is officially available on Amazon, Bookshop, Barnes & Noble, Book Depository, and Booktopia.  Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Join the BE Thoughtful Revolution – our free behavioral economics community, and keep the conversation going! More from The Brainy Business:

In this episode we talk about how to manage errors and failures. https://www.fountainpencompanion.com/blog/3-visualise-your-inks (https://www.fountainpencompanion.com/blog/3-visualise-your-inks) The incredibly challenging task of sorting colours (https://www.alanzucconi.com/2015/09/30/colour-sorting/) The fear of failure in Engineering (https://henry-gallert.medium.com/the-fear-of-failure-in-engineering-4e2c945faf76) Blameless postmortem (https://www.atlassian.com/incident-management/postmortem/blameless) Release It! (https://pragprog.com/titles/mnee2/release-it-second-edition/) Premortem (https://www.atlassian.com/team-playbook/plays/pre-mortem) Why Japan's Rails Workers Can't Stop Pointing at Things (https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/pointing-and-calling-japan-trains) Pragmatic Thinking and Learning (https://pragprog.com/titles/ahptl/pragmatic-thinking-and-learning/) Daði Freyr (Daði & Gagnamagnið) – 10 Years (Official Video) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zTbVRPh5EI) You can reach us via email at hosts@expandingbeyond.it (mailto:hosts@expandingbeyond.it). You can follow us on Twitter at @podcast_eb (https://twitter.com/podcast_eb). Where to find Monica on the internet: Website: monicag.me (https://monicag.me/) Twitter: @KFMolli (https://twitter.com/KFMolli) Github: @nirnaeth (https://github.com/nirnaeth) Blog: dev.to/nirnaeth (https://dev.to/nirnaeth) Where to find Urban on the internet: Twitter: @ujh (https://twitter.com/ujh) Github: @ujh (https://github.com/ujh/) Blog: urbanhafner.com (https://urbanhafner.com/) The intro and outro music is Our Big Adventure (https://freemusicarchive.org/music/Scott_Holmes/Happy_Music/Our_Big_Adventure) by Scott Holmes (https://freemusicarchive.org/music/Scott_Holmes). It's licensed under Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Antes de empezar un proyecto, todo es ilusión: “llegaremos a las fechas”, “vamos bien de tiempo”, “nada malo puede ocurrir”, “esta vez lo tenemos mejor planificado que nunca”… Entonces empiezan a aparecer problemas. “¿Nadie había previsto esto? ¡No puede ser!”. Es curioso porque somos muy malpensados, pero cuando proyectamos somos todo lo contrario. ¿Y por qué no aprovechamos el increíble poder del ser humano para pensar mal de todo para planificar y evitar problemas? Esa es justo la técnica que te explico en este episodio del pódcast.

Gary Klein is a research psychologist famous for pioneering in the field of naturalistic decision-making. He studied how people make life or death decisions under extreme time pressure and uncertainty, especially firefighters, military generals or ICU nurses he has observed on the field. He is the best selling author of « Sources of Power » edited by MIT Press, « Streetlights and Shadows » and most recently « Seeing What Others Don't: The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights ». He presented a PreMortem method of risk assessment in 1998, summarized in a classic HBR article, he published in 2009 a joint study with Daniel Kahneman « Conditions for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree » after several years of collaboration, and he was one of the leaders of a team that redesigned the White House Situation Room. « Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect ». Mark Twain During this phone interview with Gary Klein, who likes to debunk false assumptions and limited beliefs to test how strong our foundations are, we address different questions : - With such compounding evidence for decades, why are we in 2020 blinded by the truth that outside a laboratory, cognitive biases are not such a problem or don’t even exist ? - Do decision-makers care about biases ? - What is the impact of the 2020 crisis on our mental view of the world ? - How to differentiate true science filled with doubt, humility and curiosity, and researchers who think there is a definitive truth, and believe they have found it ? - Is there a right way to think ? - How can we improve decision-making performance in organizations facing critical situations, based on human strengths and capabilities ?

I’m working hard on developing an important skill: the ability to deconstruct a failure before it happens. I’m trying to move from postmortem to premortem. A postmortem is an after-action review where mistakes and successes are deconstructed. A premortem is the same analysis shifted forward in time and focused on the variables that cause mistakes. Charlie Munger says that the best type of learning is “vicarious,” meaning that you learn from the example of others. You see your friend burn his hand on the stove, and you decide not to touch it for yourself to see if it’s hot. This type of learning is great, and I think it can prevent a lot of unnecessary suffering. But I think a lot of learning comes from experience. Howard Marks likes to say that “experience is what you get when you don’t get what you want.” Another phrase I like is “he who suffers remembers.” In that light—postmortem learning definitely isn’t preferable, but once mistakes become available for you to deconstruct, they can be a great resource. On Twitter, Ian Cassel recently mentioned that a well-constructed active investment strategy needs to be molded and shaped to you as an individual. It’s similar to what people say about Jiu Jitsu having a certain sense of justice—you’ll often find yourself in the positions you need to work on most. Rubbing your face in real-life mistakes through postmortem analysis is a fantastic way to address key flaws and drive inflection points in your learning. I’m just finished a postmortem of a miserable experience I had investing in Tailored Brands (which, as of July 8th, looks to be on the verge of bankruptcy after a missed bond interest payment). You’ll be able to see that analysis online at www.strategychainpodcast.com/postmortems. The analysis centers on analytical fundamentals, execution methodology, and psychology & behavior. I summarize the experience, look at what went right, and discuss in detail what I did wrong. The question of the week is short: how can I shift the distribution away from postmortem and toward premortem? So that does it for this episode. I hope it unearths some threads to pull. If you’re interested in show notes or supporting the podcast, check out strategychainpodcast.com. If you want to get in touch with me, you can find me on Twitter @strategychain. So until next time—thank you. Strategy Chain Links Rate and review the podcast at https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/strategy-chain/id1492935567 Find Amazon affiliate links at http://strategychainpodcast.com/support Send me questions at http://strategychainpodcast.com/contact Sign up for the email list at http://strategychainpodcast.com/ Social Media @strategychain (Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Medium)

In this episode, we walk through an effective technique for dealing with the failure that could be (or will be). Premortem Analysis unlocks your thinking about your strategy, project, or team, to see what decisions you may be making now can and will lead to catastrophic failure.

While differentiating between regret and hindsight bias requires the use of empathy in looking back retrospectively, preventing regret is forward looking using a concept called premortem. Life Update: I did my first podcast interview last week talking about my experience as an EFL teacher in Thailand. I found that I'm still slightly autistic in the manner that I'm not the most socially aware person. I was telling a story about my yellow food coloring laden water guns and how I used them in class. By the interviewer's body language when he started covering his mouth I knew he didn't like the story. I only recognized this in hindsight when I was watching the recording. What I find humorous others may not especially since many of the things I did would not be allowed in an American school. A valuable lesson to take away. I'm used to watching myself on camera, I cringed when watching the podcast interview though as it was not just a monologue which I normally do but a conversation with another person. Reminds me of when I recorded my lectures last November, I tolerate watching those videos now after watching it so many times. I'll do the same with this interview recording. Seek Discomfort About Kingston's Journey Series: Kingston's Journey is one "inspiration video/motivational video" of a lifelong series. This is the travel journal I take with me. Whether you have questions such as how to change my life or how to travel the world, I think you'll find value in the life lessons I've experienced and documented in this travel notebook. They may serve as travel inspiration for you. In Chinese, there is a saying, "讀萬卷書,不如行千里路." This means, instead of reading ten thousand books, why don't you walk a thousand miles. This is my inspiration to travel every nation (or as many as possible) in my pursuit of my global MBA by learning as much as possible and recording these life lessons learned only by travel. In the end, I think the achievement of dreams, personal growth & aspirations out there through travel and adventure will lead to a more fulfilling life. Living and experiencing the "now" is how I'll make my life a great memory in the future. Article: https://kingstonlim.com/2020/06/12/premortem-preventing-regret-kingstons-journey-57/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kingston-lim-146940111/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/kingstonlim23/ Amazon: https://www.amzn.com/B07L7FDPVF Kingmaker Audibles (Spotify) https://open.spotify.com/show/4UYMiWHBFRamVxOIfsvlil Tik Tok: https://vm.tiktok.com/WP46tW/

Dernièrement lors d’une session d’accompagnement et de conseil avec mon ami Reynald Stevens. Nous réfléchissions ensemble sur les stratégies marketing et le business plan de UMento. Et dans les réflexions que je lui ai présenté, il a été surpris de voir la notion de "PREMORTEM". Je vous explique ce que c'est et l'intérêt de cette technique

Was ist das Erfolgsgeheimnis der Tech-Giganten Facebook, Google, Xing & Co.? Mit welchen Methoden haben sie es geschafft vom Start-up zum Global Player? Haben Sie schon einmal von Moonshot-Thinking, Team Canvas oder Premortem gehört? Das sind einige der Werkzeuge, mit denen die Großen die Spielregeln der digitalen Welt neu formuliert haben. Die Digitalexpertin und Unternehmerin Leila Summa beschreibt die wichtigsten Tools, wie sie funktionieren und erklärt anhand von Best-Practise-Beispielen wie diese Werkzeuge von jedermann genutzt werden können.

A positive pre-mortem prevents a poor postmortem www.getoutofmycomfortzone.com

Join Coach Patrick from Endurance Nation (www.endurancenation.us) for another weekly endurance podcast. This week Coach P discusses the value of doing a pre-mortem for your next big race.  Key Talking Points include: What is a Pre-mortem Why Open Your Mind? Examples of Various Pre-mortems Thanks for listening to this Endurance Nation podcast...find more online here. Prefer to Watch the Show? Catch this episode in full streaming color online here: https://youtu.be/9A5EkmOz454 Follow Endurance Nation on YouTube for video recordings of Coach Patrick on the podcast and much more! Newsletter Get regular updates and articles that will make you a smarter and faster athlete! Sign Up Here Sponsor Audible eBook Trial: Make the most of your drive time or down time with business, learning or entertaining books (that you'd otherwise NEVER read): www.endurancenation.us/audible Become a Podcast Supporter: That's right, you can help contribute to keeping the Endurance Nation podcast 100% athlete-focused. Make a small contribution online here: www.patreon.com/endurancenation About Us Endurance Nation is the world's largest, fastest online triathlon coaching group with more than 750 members across the globe training and racing together. Be sure to check us out at EnduranceNation.us to stay on top of all things endurance. If you're ready to get started create your Membership at EnduranceNation.us/join - we have a 30-day money back guarantee if you aren't satisfied!   Endurance Nation: Work Hard, Get Smart, Go Fast!   

We are joined by Dr. Gary Klein, President of Shadowbox LLC, to discuss Naturalistic Decision Making, how to do a PreMortem, and how to gain Insights. If you found this episode interesting, consider reading some of Gary's work. We hope later to talk to Gary about his new findings in training measures with Shadow Box LLC. If you have any thoughts, questions, or want to present your argument, contact us and send us an audio clip at timwhiffen@auscastnetwork.com See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We are joined by Dr. Gary Klein, President of Shadowbox LLC, to discuss Naturalistic Decision Making, how to do a PreMortem, and how to gain Insights. If you found this episode interesting, consider reading some of Gary's work. We hope later to talk to Gary about his new findings in training measures with Shadow Box LLC. If you have any thoughts, questions, or want to present your argument, contact us and send us an audio clip at timwhiffen@auscastnetwork.com Support the show.

Heute erkläre ich euch wie ihr die Risiken eures wichtigen Projektes oder die Schwächen eurer Präsentation innerhalb weniger Minuten entdeckt und wie man diese Risiken reduziert - mit einem PreMortem. Diese aus meiner Sicht simpelste Risikovermeidungs-Methode benutze ich bei meinem Design Thinking Workshops fast immer.  #DesignThinking, #futureskills, #Innovation, #Kreativität - absurd einfach erklärt --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/simply-good-life/message

“A flexible tree bends in the wind, an inflexible tree breaks.” Scott Lewis has been in developing for 25 years...he knows how the industry works. When he and his co-workers recognized the need for a self-storage unit to be built in Black Diamond, Washington, they proceeded with CAUTION. When developers pitch a project to a community, they are usually met with resistance from residents who are anti-new development and anti-change. In addition to those norms, Black Diamond has a history of resisting new developments... and there are wetlands located on this five plus acre piece of property! Scott was ready for battle when the day for public hearings arrived! The outcome was NOT what he expected... Listen to Scott’s amazing story and take note of the incredible lesson he shares in taking the time to PREPARE for any scenario. Through this story, Scott will cover: The importance of preparing for everything that you do prior to starting it, and how to mitigate any surprises. Why development is difficult wherever you go and why people resist change. Scott will talk about the Premortem technique that developers use to figure out: What could cause this project to fail? What were the causes of those failures? How can we mitigate them to reduce probability that risk will happen, or reduce the impact? The importance of developers being flexible. How to navigate bureaucracy. Scott Lewis is the co-founder and CEO of Spartan Investment Group, LLC. and has led several successful real estate developments ranging from single-family flips to raw land development. To date, his company has completed $6M in development projects, has $9M more underway, and raised over $7M in private equity. Links Mentioned https://spartan-investors.com/ Scott@spartan-investors.com If you enjoy listening to my show, don’t forget to subscribe to it and leave a review.

It's the Hallowe'en Spooktacular! Not really--but it's a fitting time to do a Business PreMortem. With the end of the year coming, I'm sure you're booking calls with your mentor to set up your 2019 strategic plan. In the TwoBrain family, we start this process in November. If you're not in the TwoBrain family yet, you can use this exercise to kickstart the process (a little fun before the spreadsheets!) In this episode, I walk through a simple exercise to help you identify and prioritize your opportunities and threats. We're going to pretend to look back on your "dead" business, because hindsight might be 20/20...but insight allows us to see into the future. Question 1: What WAS your business?If you've ever had to describe a loved one in three column inches or less, you know what it's like to distill someone down to their essence. How would you want your business to be remembered? What WAS it, really, at its core--without branding or labels? What did it look like with its clothes off? What will it be remembered FOR?Question 2: What killed it?Let's be really, really clear about your biggest problem. If you don't KNOW what's stunting your growth or slowly bleeding you dry, we can help. There are no leeches or bloodletting: just a careful, compassionate examination of your health. I shared a few myths that I still hear every single week.This exercise should reveal your Achilles heel, and therefore your greatest priority for action.Was it exhaustion? Complacency? Cash Flow? Coaches becoming competitors?Maybe take a strong dose of medicine NOW to prevent the fatality later. Question 3: What survived?You're training to be an entrepreneur. If your business goes bankrupt, you'll have learned something really valuable...and you'll continue to be an entrepreneur! No one can fire you from this job. You'll keep many hard lessons learned, many transferable experiences, and maybe even some money.I hang around with some very successful people. We're a tight group. And many of us have the "clean slate" fantasy: the wish to start from scratch with what we know now.What survived that shouldn't? Did the plague continue to haunt your family after the body was gone? Maybe take steps to quarantine poisons now, too. If you're in the TwoBrain family, there's a worksheet coming to help you. Fill it out and send it to your mentor ahead of your November call. Because on October 31, death ends, and gestation for 2019 begins!

Host Danny “Sunshine” Bauer provides weekday motivation for the modern educator. Listeners can expect tools and tricks from a variety of sources: inspirational books, stories from the mastermind, and weekly challenges. Learn more and also tune into the #1 downloaded podcast for school leaders, Better Leaders Better Schools at https://betterleadersbetterschools.com   Copyright © 2018 Better Leaders Better Schools

In episode 63 I speak with Dr. Gary Klein, founder of the Naturalist Decision Making movement. Gary discusses how we really make decisions and why the traditional, rational decision-making process that is taught in school is ineffective. Real decision-making is done on a subconscious level and is called naturalistic decision making. In this week’s show we discuss why experts make rapid decisions and how patterns play a role in the decision-making process. Struggling to make decisions while cutting Fresh Tracks? How to make and trust your decisions when you are doing something new as well as being open to see what you can be achieving instead of what you are not is covered. Dr. Klein also discusses the role mindsets play in making decisions and gives examples on how we can change our mindsets systematically. There are, in fact, two types of mindsets; fixed mindset and a growth mindset. Which one you favor most effects your ability to cut Fresh Tracks. Struggling to make a decision? Gary shares that presenting things in a nontraditional manner or seeing the world through a different lens may allow you to see your problems in a new light and make the decision-making process easier. Show Notes: 2:00 –Understanding how we don’t make decisions is key to understanding how we do 6:00 – How experts make decisions and how to learn from it 9:10—Why you should listen to your intuition but don’t trust it when doing something new 11:50 – How our mindsets affect our ability to make decisions and change. 16:00 – The danger of holding on to your initial goal rather than looking at what can work 20:42 – Recognizing when to change the plan vs change the goal 23:00 – The art of being stupid 27:00 – How to change your mindset systematically About Gary Klein Gary Klein, Ph.D., is known for (a) the cognitive models he described, such as the Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) model, the Data/Frame model of sensemaking, the Management By Discovery model of planning in complex settings, and the Triple Path model of insight, (b) the methods he developed, including techniques for Cognitive Task Analysis, the PreMortem method of risk assessment, and the ShadowBox training approach, and (c) the movement he helped to found in 1989 — Naturalistic Decision Making. The company he started in 1978, Klein Associates, grew to 37 employees by the time he sold it in 2005. He formed his new company, ShadowBox LLC, in 2014. The five books he has written, including Sources of Power: How people make decisions, and Seeing What Others Don’t: The remarkable ways we gain insights, have been translated into 12 languages and have collectively sold more than 100,000 copies. www.shadowboxtraining.com

No DeLorean needed.

Human beings are masters of overconfidence. Even when we're wary of a rose-colored outlook, we find it tough to reliably determine whether a particular course of action is wise or not. This effect is not eliminated by combining fallible people together into groups, either. Daniel Kahneman describes this dynamic in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow. Can overconfident optimism be overcome by training? I am not optimistic. There have been numerous attempts to train people to state confidence intervals that reflect the imprecision of their judgments, with only a few reports of modest success. An often cited example is that geologists at Royal Dutch Shell became less overconfident in their assessments of possible drilling sites after training with multiple past cases for which the outcome was known. In other situations, overconfidence was mitigated (but not eliminated) when judges were encouraged to consider competing hypotheses. However, overconfidence is a direct consequence of features of System 1 that can be tamed—but not vanquished. The main obstacle is that subjective confidence is determined by the coherence of the story one has constructed, not by the quality and amount of the information that supports it.1 Recall that System 1 thinking is the fast variety, which can also be thought of as intuitive or less effortful thinking. In order to explore this issue more fully, in 2009, Kahneman collaborated with Gary Klein, a research psychologist known for his work on experts' decision making processes in real-world scenarios. Kahneman makes room for his alternative perspective on intuition. Organizations may be better able to tame optimism and individuals than individuals are. The best idea for doing so was contributed by Gary Klein, my “adversarial collaborator” who generally defends intuitive decision making against claims of bias and is typically hostile to algorithms. He labels his proposal the premortem . The procedure is simple: when the organization has almost come to an important decision but has not formally committed itself, Klein proposes gathering for a brief session a group of individuals who are knowledgeable about the decision. The premise of the session is a short speech: “Imagine that we are a year into the future. We implemented the plan as it now exists. The outcome was a disaster. Please take 5 to 10 minutes to write a brief history of that disaster.”2 This mental frame, applied by team leadership, is designed to circumvent the natural loyalty people have to their teams. Kahneman continues, As a team converges on a decision—and especially when the leader tips her hand—public doubts about the wisdom of the planned move are gradually suppressed and eventually come to be treated as evidence of flawed loyalty to the team and its leaders. The suppression of doubt contributes to overconfidence in a group where only supporters of the decision have a voice. The main virtue of the premortem is that it legitimizes doubts. Furthermore, it encourages even supporters of the decision to search for possible threats that they had not considered earlier. The premortem is not a panacea and does not provide complete protection against nasty surprises, but it goes some way toward reducing the damage of plans that are subject to the biases of WYSIATI3 and uncritical optimism.4 I think learning to consciously change our mental frames is vital to improving our judgment and decision making. When it comes time to begin your next big project, whether solo or on a team, take time to picture what failure would look like. It might help you find success instead. Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York, NY: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2013. Kindle link. ↩︎ Kahneman, Kindle link. ↩︎ “What You See is All There is,” is one of the ways people jump to conclusions. We act as if we have a complete picture, even if this is far from true. What you see is all there is. For more information, see Chapter 7 of Thinking, Fast and Slow. ↩︎ Kahneman, Kindle link. ↩︎ With the Grain is supported by listeners like you.If you'd like to hear more from Potatowire and other Difficult Podcasts hosts, visit http://difficultpodcasts.fm/support and subscribe today.Besides supporting the work you love and keeping it ad-free, you'll gain admission to the Difficult Podcasts Slack channel where you can chat with your favorite hosts, tell us what you think, and help us improve future episodes.Thanks for listening.

And the roar of V-Twins shall herald the return of The Outlaws! After a lengthy hiatus, we are back with a Postmortem on Tom Clancy's The Division and how/why this game occupied hundreds of hours of our lives in 2016. Then, we look ahead to the next Ubisoft release and discuss our thoughts on the recently-concluded closed beta for Ghost Recon Wildlands!

Today, I am joined by my friend, Mike Lauria, to interview Gary Klein, PhD. Dr. Klein is a masterful cognitive psychologist. He is known for many groundbreaking works, including: the Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) model to describe how people actually make decisions in natural settings; a Data/Frame model of sensemaking; a Management by Discovery model of planning to handle wicked problems; and a Triple-Path model of insight. He has also developed several research and application methods: The Critical Decision method and Knowledge Audit for doing cognitive task analysis; the PreMortem method of risk assessment; the ShadowBox method for training cognitive skills. He was instrumental in founding the field of Naturalistic Decision Making. The Books Sources of Power This is the one that got Mike and I started as Klein Fanboys Streetlights and Shadows The absolute best compilation of Dr. Klein's decision-making concepts that are directly applicable to medicine Seeing What Others Don't Next up on my reading list Recognition Primed Decisionmaking Wikipedia Link for RPD Sites and Links Dr. Klein's Company Shadowbox Training Articles Mentioned in the Show Kahneman D, Klein G. Conditions for intuitive expertise: a failure to disagree. Am Psychol. 2009 Sep;64(6):515-26. Can We Trust Best Practices? Six Cognitive Challenges of Evidence-Based Approaches. Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making Additional Related Stuff Effect of availability bias and reflective reasoning on diagnostic accuracy among internal medicine residents. Effects of reflective practice on the accuracy of medical diagnoses.  Going fast might not induce more error, it's about experience and if you have the patterns to recognize: Disrupting diagnostic reasoning: do interruptions, instructions, and experience affect the diagnostic accuracy and response time of residents and emergency physicians? Slowing down doesn't help.  Slow is just slow. Smooth is FAST, and smooth is about economy of cognitive resources and movements The relationship between response time and diagnostic accuracy. The etiology of diagnostic errors: a controlled trial of system 1 versus system 2 reasoning. The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right Descartes' Error: Emotion, Reason, and the Human Brain Now on to the Podcast:

Welcome to this edition of the Leadership AdvantEdge Podcast and my purpose this week is to help you confidently make your next meeting or presentation perfect, and not be anxious about it. To do that, today, I'm going to share with you how to do a premortem on your meeting or presentation by asking yourself six questions. On the show notes, I'll share a PDF and a word template that you can download and use to plan your next presentation or meeting premortem and make it perfect. I have a secret to share with you. I have a fear of public speaking. Not because I don't like to be the centre of attention, I love that. No, it's because I'm a bit of a perfectionist. I want everything to be just so, well, perfect. And because of that, every time I have to speak in public, whether in a small group or a large auditorium, I get anxious. Sometimes a little, sometimes a lot anxious. And I'm not alone. Glossophobia is the official term for a fear of public speaking. Most statistics I've seen show between 21% (Psychological Medicine 2003) and 40% (Gallup 2001) of people have a fear of public speaking or performance. Only snakes appear to be feared by more people (in America). What makes giving a presentation so nerve-wracking? It's not just those who give presentations on occasion. Professional speakers and trainers too can get anxious before a presentation. We all have our tricks and tools to get around the issue and I've shared four great hacks you can use in another podcast. But there's another tool that anyone can use to help them overcome any concern, and that's a premortem. You've heard of a post-mortem, where a corpse is examined to determine the cause of death. A pre-mortem takes the same idea but examines the corpse of your presentation before you present to help you prevent its demise. Its purpose is to take your well planned presentation and shake out your own optimistic bias. We need to shake out your optimistic bias? It is estimated that less than 35% of presentation achieve their desired outcome. We have an inbuilt optimistic bias that causes us to ignore baseline data even when it is contrary. We believe in our own skills, abilities or experience and that we will be different and succeed. We believe that they (the audience) will know what they need to do once we present the facts. Gary Klien suggested the idea of a pre-mortem to help organisations improve the success rate of projects. The procedure is simple and I have adapted this to help you improve the success of your presentations. What is a successful presentation? Better still, what makes a perfect presentation? To answer this we have to start with the purpose of a presentation and that is to influence others to change and act. You might be, for example, sharing a new idea with your audience. The change is that the new (without a k) becomes knew (with a k). Now, what do you want the audience to DO with that idea? Surely you desire that they DO something with the new idea? If not, why are you presenting it? A successful presentation then, is one where the audience acts on the information or opportunity. Indeed, that would be perfect. And if they are to act, then we need to be very clear to ask the right questions. Six questions to make sure we successfully get the audience to act. I'll bet that you, like me have sat in way too many meetings that had no actions. You're probably heading out to one today. So if you’re the host, take just five minutes and ask yourself these six questions. Imagine that it is the end of your presentation. You planned it very well but it seems that the audience simply didn’t do what you wanted them to do. It was, in terms of presentation success, a flop. The right questions come from knowing what might derail us. To know that, we have six: What, specifically, did I want the audience to DO at the end of my presentation? Why, specifically, did I want to achieve that? What happened that prevented me from getting it? What would have happened if I did get it? How did I not get what I wanted? What did I not overcome? Take 5 minutes and WRITE down your responses to the questions (you can download a PDF template here). Let's look at two common business examples to help you understand how this works in practice The first is a pretty common situation is a presentation to colleagues and boss in a regional meeting about the progress of the presenters team. The second is proposing a new business project.   Question Progress Update New Business Project What, specifically, did I want the audience to DO at the end of my presentation? I wanted them to appreciate (recognise) our (my) achievements and for my boss to commend me in front of my peers. I wanted them to approve the project and make me project lead. Why, specifically, did I want to achieve that? They need to appreciate how hard we work It's my idea and I should lead it so that it is successful What happened that prevented me from getting it? I was just bragging and not really telling them anything useful for them I don't have project management experience and the business plan had holes in it What would have happened if I did get it? I would have felt good but unsatisfied. I would have been overwhelmed and stressed out How did I not get what I wanted? I went ahead and gave them a list of boring facts and figures that no one else cares about I think I changed my mind What did I not overcome? I didn’t overcome my own need to satisfy my ego and focus on what they wanted to hear instead I didn’t make them recognize that I was the best person for the job because I don’t believe that I am How many meeting presentations like the first case have you sat through? One where the update was all about how great the presenter has been, how hard they've worked and that they should get some plaudits. And now the very tough question: how many of those have you given? Now, by using the 6 premortem questions we can face the reality and go back and clarify the purpose of the presentation. Ask yourself why does the audience need to know this and why should they care? Be clear what you want your audience to do at the end of your presentation. And remember, if there is no action then, pray tell, why are you presenting again? And how many new project proposals have you seen or delivered that sort of just fizzled out? By using the premortem here, we can go back and be completely clear about the outcome we want and that is best for the business. Surely it's a good thing to feel optimistic when a little fearful? Feel optimistic for sure, and you can be after the pre-mortem. What we want to do is address the certainty of our presentation achieving the desired objective and remove as much overly optimistic beliefs or assumptions within the presentation itself. But my meeting presentation is the only chance I get to blow my own trumpet I understand that feeling. Way back when I was implementing a new computer system in the London Pub Estate for Chef & Brewer, my boss and peers could have cared less about my accomplishments. There were snide remarks about how little my team had achieved, so when it came to provide an update I was enthusiastic to claim all that delayed recognition. Big mistake. No-one cared. I would have been far better off using these premortem questions then and working out what they needed to hear and what the benefits were for them. But then I was young and foolish and thought that the world revolved around me. How does this help us achieve the perfect presentation and reduce anxiety? I think we are agreed that a successful, or perfect presentation is one where the audience acts on the information or opportunity. That is, the presentation achieves its purpose. When we ask these six premortem questions we're setting ourselves up for success. They help us make sure that we are clear about our purpose and specific outcomes of our presentation and fix everything that might derail us. Now that I'm certain I have planned everything to achieve my purpose here, I'm less anxious, less worried. More confident and now I can get up to present. Use this for your next meeting or presentation. Be honest with yourself, and sufficiently critical to test your planning. Your time will be well spent because that next meeting or that next presentation is going to achieve exactly what you want it to achieve. And that, my friend, would be just perfect.

In this Podcast, we present below a sample lesson from the teachings of the Rosicrucian Order, AMORC. This lesson provides valuable tools to help a loved one more peacefully experience the process of transition – the term Rosicrucians use for what is commonly called death. Running Time: 15:18 | 36.7 MB Podcast Copyright © 2015 Rosicrucian Order, AMORC. All Rights Reserved. Posted by Rosicrucian Park @ 4/01/2015

In this Podcast, we present below a sample lesson from the teachings of the Rosicrucian Order, AMORC. This lesson provides valuable tools to help a loved one more peacefully experience the process of transition – the term Rosicrucians use for what is commonly called death. Running Time: 15:18 | 36.7 MB Podcast Copyright © 2015 […]

We talk about the various types of meetings you might encounter during the development of your project.