Podcast appearances and mentions of Carlota Perez

Is America screwed? Not according to the former managing editor of Wired, Peter Leyden. The creator of the Substack newsletter The Great Progression, Leyden believes that U.S. history operates in 80 year cycles and that America, empowered by Northern Californian technology, is gearing up for another remarkable period of innovation. Leyden is no MAGA fanboy, but argues that Trump is enabling the American future by destroying the Republican brand and unintentionally guaranteeing a longterm Democratic majority. It's a provocative thesis which I hope is true. But what about China? And can we really trust Silicon Valley's tech titans to make America great again? 5 Takeaways* Leyden believes America cycles through major reinventions approximately every 80 years, with previous transformations occurring after the Constitutional Convention, Civil War, and World War II.* He argues that post-WWII systems (welfare state, Pax Americana) are outdated and that Trump's presidency is accelerating their necessary dismantling.* Leyden sees an opportunity for progressives to rebuild American systems using AI, clean energy and bioengineering in more efficient, effective ways.* Leyden references economic historian Carlota Perez's theory that technological revolutions move from "Gilded Ages" (concentrated wealth/power) to "Golden Ages" (distributed benefits) through democratic intervention.* Leyden positions the US-China competition, particularly in AI development, as a fundamental contest between democratic and authoritarian approaches to organizing society with new technologies.Peter Leyden is a tech expert and thought leader on artificial intelligence, climate technologies and a more positive future through his keynote speaking, writing and advising. Leyden currently is the creator of The Great Progression: 2025 to 2050, which is a series of keynote talks, Substack essays, and his next book on our new potential to harness AI and other transformative technologies to create a much better world. He also is the founder of Reinvent Futures, advising senior leaders in strategic foresight and the impacts of these new technologies. Since coming to San Francisco to work with the founders of WIRED to start​​ The Digital Age, he has followed the front edge of technological change and built an extraordinary network of pioneering innovators in Silicon Valley. Leyden most recently convened this network of elite tech experts through the first two years of the Generative AI Revolution as host and curator of one of the premier event series at ground zero in San Francisco — The AI Age Begins. Leyden is the former Managing Editor of WIRED, who then became the Founder and CEO of two startups that pioneered the early video mediums of first YouTube and then Zoom. He wrote two influential books on the future that went into multiple languages, including The Long Boom that foretold how the new digital economy would scale over 25 years — and largely did. Leyden began his career as a journalist covering America, then did a stint as a foreign correspondent in Asia for Newsweek, including covering the early rise of China. He has traveled to more than 50 countries around the world. He was raised in the heartland in Minnesota, graduated summa cum laude at Georgetown University, and earned two masters degrees from Columbia University.Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting the daily KEEN ON show, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy interview series. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children.Keen On America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe

Derek Moore is joined by guest co-host Spencer Wright to discuss the surge in bond yields, the surge in the US Dollar Index, and whether those two things might cause some near-term pain for equity markets. Plus, discussing whether AI Artificial Intelligence is a true next technological revolution and what it means for earnings. Then they talk semiconductors as the picks and shovels of AI and do some technical analysis reviewing the patterns in the S&P 500 Index, the Nasdaq 100, Semiconductors and bond yields. Oh, and there was the unemployment report that markets didn't like in the moment as it was “too good” because does it mean the Fed is done cutting? All this and more this week!   Bond interest rates surge as 10-year treasury hits 4.7% UK Gilt Bonds surge to a higher rate than when the government had to step in Unemployment surprises at 4.1% but market reacts negatively Fed rate cuts not priced in until October 29th meeting and 1 cut at that AI Artificial Intelligence – is it the 6th great sea change revolution? Semiconductors as the picks and shovels of AI Technical analysis triangle patters Technical analysis on NDX, SPX, and Semiconductors The trade weighted dollar index and impact to earnings due to currency exchange Are high rates bad or just the journey to get there first? Technical analysis book recommendations   Mentioned in this Episode   Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns by Thomas N. Bulkowski https://amzn.to/4gVExnm   Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital by Carlota Perez https://amzn.to/3Wefgwd   Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John Murphy https://amzn.to/3Wefgwd   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

The Future of Student Search Pulse Check Series is sponsored by Carnegie. When talking about the future of Student Search, you can't go a day without talking about the impact of technology and AI. In this episode, Trent Gilbert, VP of Student Search Solutions at Carnegie, and Paul LeBlanc, Former President of Southern New Hampshire University, discuss how technology can be used to amplify and improve human connections and the impact of AI on the workforce. They discuss the ethical considerations of AI and the importance of using it in ways that align with human values. Key takeaways include:The use of technology to amplify and improve human relationships, rather than replace them.How AI has the potential to radically change the workforce.Ethical considerations that are crucial in the development and use of AI.How AI is changing the landscape of Student Search.Links:“Applying AI to Rebuild Middle Class Jobs,” by David Autor on nber.orgTechnological revolutions and techno-economic paradigms by Carlota Perez on jstor.comPaul's Book Broken: How Our Social Systems are Failing Us and How We Can Fix Them https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Social-Systems-Failing-Them/dp/1637741766Guest Name: Paul LeBlanc, Former President, Southern New Hampshire UniversityGuest Bio: Paul LeBlanc spent two-decades as president of Southern New Hampshire University and helped transform the struggling private residential institution of 2,500 students into the largest higher education provider in the United States, renowned for its excellence in online education. LeBlanc, who retired from his post at SNHU this past June, is now the co-founder of Human Systems, a company working to reimagine learning for the age of AI.Guest Social: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-j-leblanc-6a17749/Pulse Check Host: Trent Gilbert - VP of Student Search Solutions at Carnegiehttps://www.linkedin.com/in/trentgilbert/Having served as Vice President for Enrollment at three different institutions, Trent Gilbert understands the challenges and pressures modern-day enrollment managers face at both the undergraduate and graduate levels. In addition to serving as a former VPEM, Trent also co-founded and served as an industry leader of Render Experiences, which put him at the table of enrollment strategy conversations at over 250 institutions. As the VP of Student Search Solutions at Carnegie, Trent is uniquely positioned to work with clients and create tailored solutions that creatively engage students while keeping the experience of human connection at the forefront of the process. - - - -Connect With Our Co-Hosts:Mallory Willsea https://www.linkedin.com/in/mallorywillsea/https://twitter.com/mallorywillseaSeth Odell https://www.linkedin.com/in/sethodell/https://twitter.com/sethodellAbout The Enrollify Podcast Network:The Higher Ed Pulse is a part of the Enrollify Podcast Network. If you like this podcast, chances are you'll like other Enrollify shows too! Some of our favorites include Generation AI and Confessions of a Higher Education Social Media Manager.Enrollify is made possible by Element451 — the next-generation AI student engagement platform helping institutions create meaningful and personalized interactions with students. Learn more at element451.com.Element451 is hosting the AI Engage Summit on Oct 29 and 30Register now for this free, virtual event.The future of higher ed is being redefined by the transformative power of AI. The AI Engage Summit brings together higher ed leaders, innovators, and many of your favorite Enrollify creators to explore AI's impact on student engagement, enrollment marketing, and institutional success. Experience firsthand how AI is improving content personalization at scale, impacting strategic decision-making, and intuitively automating the mundane tasks that consume our time. The schedule is packed with real examples and case studies, so you leave knowing how to harness AI to drive meaningful change at your institution. Whether you're looking to enhance student outcomes, optimize enrollment marketing, or simply stay ahead of the curve, the AI Engage Summit is your gateway to the next level of higher education innovation. Registration is free, save your spot today.

Rodrigo Seira (@RSSH273) is Special Counsel at Paradigm. Prior to joining Paradigm, he was outside counsel to crypto investors and entrepreneurs at Cooley LLP. Brendan Malone (@brendanpmalone) is a Policy Manager at Paradigm. Prior to joining Paradigm, Brendan worked at the Federal Reserve where he focused on policy issues for financial market infrastructures. Rodrigo and Brendan launched the Paradigm Policy Lab. The goal of the Lab is to be a gathering place for academics, policy experts, lawyers, and technologists to study how to address the biggest policy challenges in crypto. In this conversation, they share the origin story, goals and projects underway at the Lab. Rodrigo mentions this book: Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages is an academic book by Carlota Perez. Disclaimer: Jacob Robinson and his guests are not your lawyer. Nothing herein or mentioned on the Law of Code podcast should be construed as legal advice. The material published is intended for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only. Please seek the advice of counsel, and do not apply any of the generalized material to your individual facts or circumstances without speaking to an attorney.

Eric Jorgenson is a writer, builder, and investor. In 2020, Eric released the "Almanack of Naval Ravikant," a bestseller with over a million copies sold. This conversation discusses the "The Anthology of Balaji", Eric's long awaited followup book (released today). The Anthology distills the best ideas from futurist Balaji Srinivasan into three main sections, Technology, Truth, and Building the Future. Our discussion covers:* How to be "truth-literate"* The most exciting opportunities for technological progress* The impact Eric hopes this book will have on the world* Challenges with modern media business models* What we can all learn from Balaji* And much moreEric Jorgenson is a GP at Rolling Fun, an early-stage investment fund. In addition to writing books and investing in companies, Eric is on a quest to create the perfect sandwich.Note from Louis: I could not put this book down. It was phenomenal. Please read it. Read Eric's Books:→ Read The Anthology of Balaji: https://balajianthology.com/→ Read The Almanack of Naval Ravikant: https://www.navalmanack.com/Connect With Eric:→ Eric's Podcast: https://www.ejorgenson.com/podcast→ Eric on Twitter: https://twitter.com/EricJorgenson→ Eric's Venture Fund: https://www.rolling.fun/Learn More About Balaji:→ Balaji on Twitter: https://twitter.com/balajis→ The Network State: https://thenetworkstate.com/Additional Resources Mentioned:→ Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages by Carlota Perez: https://www.amazon.com/Technological-Revolutions-Financial-Capital-Dynamics/dp/1843763311→ The Sovereign Individual: Mastering the Transition to the Information Age: https://www.amazon.com/Sovereign-Individual-James-Dale-Davidson-ebook/dp/B00AK9IXXM This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit louisshulman.substack.com

» Die Themen der Folge 236: --- (00:06:25) AI-Strategie der BigTechs (00:08:08) Google mit Bard-Integration in Drive & Gmail https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/20/technology/google-bard-extensions.html https://www.fastcompany.com/90955692/google-bard-takes-a-big-step-toward-personalized-ai (00:16:46) Microsoft mit Copilot-Integration https://www.axios.com/2023/09/22/ai-microsoft-google-windows-copilot https://qz.com/microsoft-is-bringing-copilot-to-all-its-office-apps-h-1850862686 (00:18:49) Meta mit Chatbot-Releasehttps://www.theverge.com/2023/9/24/23887773/meta-ai-chatbots-gen-ai-personas-young (00:20:42) Amazon mit Alexa powered by LLM https://www.theverge.com/2023/9/20/23880764/amazon-ai-alexa-generative-llm-smart-home https://venturebeat.com/ai/amazon-leader-says-new-gen-ai-alexa-is-a-super-agent/ (00:27:23) Amazon ändert Checkout-Programm https://www.theverge.com/2023/9/19/23881052/amazon-just-walk-out-rfid-cashierless-tech https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/26/business/target-store-closures-theft.html https://fortune.com/2023/09/27/elon-musk-retail-theft-philadelphia-looting-walmart-target-rite-aid/amp/ (00:30:03) Amazon limitiert Self-Publishing wegen AI https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/sep/20/amazon-restricts-authors-from-self-publishing-more-than-three-books-a-day-after-ai-concerns (00:33:27) Gutenberg mit AI-Audiobooks https://qz.com/project-gutenberg-ai-to-ebooks-audiobooks-1850856297 (00:40:28) OpenAI mit DALL·E 3 https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/chatgpt-image-generator-dall-e-b2415925.html (00:46:45) DeepFake-Nacktbilder https://www.businessinsider.com/fake-naked-pictures-young-girls-ai-spark-outrage-spanish-town-2023 (00:50:32) Clearview AI https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/09/technology/google-facebook-facial-recognition.html (00:57:18) AI-Regulierung (01:01:38) Nebeneffekte von Kartellverfahren https://www.theverge.com/2023/9/21/23884278/tiktok-google-search-results-antitrust-case https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/story/2023-09-22/xbox-leaks-microsoft-emails-nintendo-sega-phil-spencer https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/a45205291/xbox-microsoft-data-leak-new-console-plans/ https://finance.yahoo.com/news/leaked-microsoft-memo-tells-managers-144817183.html (01:05:53) Sequoia zur AI-Bubble https://www.sequoiacap.com/article/follow-the-gpus-perspective/ https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Carlota-Perez/dp/1843763311 (01:08:20) DNA-Analyse mit AI https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/sep/19/google-deepmind-ai-tool-assesses-dna-mutations-for-harm-potential https://www.businessinsider.com/chan-zuckerberg-initiative-help-eliminate-human-disease-end-of-century-2023-9 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/babbage-how-ai-promises-to-revolutionise-science/id508376907?i=1000628612704 (01:14:42) Instacart-IPO https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/20/instacart-loses-almost-all-its-ipo-gains-by-second-day-on-nasdaq.html (01:16:00) Trade Republic mit Relaunch-Desaster

Bonne rentrée à tous ! Nous sommes heureux de démarrer cette nouvelle saison de Nouveau Départ avec un podcast “À deux voix”

Carlota Perez is a pre-eminent multi-disciplinarian, scholar, and author. Carlota studies the nature of technological change and economic systems, and […] The post Carlota Perez on technological revolutions and capitalism  appeared first on Luminary.fm.

» Die Themen der Folge 224: --- (00:05:38) » Russland-Putsch und mediale Begleitung (00:13:02) » Netflix, Black Mirror und Streamberry https://mashable.com/article/netflix-black-mirror-ad-campaign https://streamberry.tv/ (00:17:01) » Meta AI-Ankündigungen: Face- & Audio-Generator https://www.unrealengine.com/en-US/blog/delivering-high-quality-facial-animation-in-minutes-metahuman-animator-is-now-available https://ai.facebook.com/blog/voicebox-generative-ai-model-speech/ https://venturebeat.com/ai/meta-announces-voicebox-a-generative-model-for-multiple-voice-synthesis-tasks https://techcrunch.com/2023/06/12/meta-open-sources-an-ai-powered-music-generator/ https://techcrunch.com/2023/05/10/google-makes-its-text-to-music-ai-public/ https://www.unite.ai/best-ai-music-generators/ https://www.ardmediathek.de/serie/dirty-little-secrets-oder-dokuserie/staffel-1/Y3JpZDovL2JyLmRlL2Jyb2FkY2FzdFNlcmllcy85N2Q4ZmY0YS0yNDczLTRjYmItOTZhYi02Y2Q2NzQzY2NhMWE/1 (00:23:27) » YouTube AI-Synchronisation https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/22/23769881/youtube-ai-dubbing-aloud https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ckgD40CJ6I (00:27:33) » Google mit Kleider-Anprobe-AI https://blog.google/products/shopping/ai-virtual-try-on-google-shopping/ (00:30:03) » Inflection AI von Reid Hoffman https://techcrunch.com/2023/06/22/inflection-debuts-its-own-foundation-ai-model-to-rival-google-and-openai-llms/ https://greylock.com/greymatter/inflectionai-the-ai-friend-zone/ (00:34:17) » Observe AI und AI-Strategie: LLM + Rules-Based-Systems? https://venturebeat.com/ai/observe-ai-unveils-30-billion-parameter-contact-center-llm-and-a-generative-ai-product-suite/ https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/ai-artificial-intelligence-humans-technology-business-factory.html https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.17493 (00:43:58) » Entlassungen bei BILD wegen AI https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/20/german-tabloid-bild-to-replace-range-of-editorial-jobs-with-ai (00:46:02) » NVIDIA-Bestellung aus China - und Boom ohne Ende? https://www.tomshardware.com/news/chinas-bytedance-has-gobbled-up-dollar1-billion-of-nvidia-gpus-for-ai-this-year https://group.softbank/system/files/pdf/ir/investors/shareholders/2023/shareholders-meeting_43_04_en.pdf (00:51:39) » Amazon mit eigenen AI-Chips https://www.allaboutcircuits.com/news/aws-enters-high-performance-compute-market-with-new-ai-chip/ (00:52:39) » FTC-Klage gegen Amazon Prime wegen Dark Patterns https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/06/ftc-sues-amazon-over-4-page-6-click-15-option-prime-cancellation-process/ https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/21/ftc-sues-amazon-over-deceptive-prime-sign-up-and-cancellation-process.html https://www.vox.com/technology/2023/6/21/23768370/ftc-amazon-prime-dark-patterns (00:57:14) » Meta droht Links zu News in Kanada auszuschließen https://techcrunch.com/2023/06/23/meta-to-pull-news-from-facebook-and-instagram-in-canada/ (01:03:24) » Meta mit EU-Regulierungs-Stresstest https://www.reuters.com/technology/eu-meta-agree-july-stress-test-eu-online-content-rules-2023-06-24/ (01:04:50) » Regenerative Energie in EU erstmalig vor Fossil https://ember-climate.org/press-releases/wind-and-solar-overtake-fossil-generation-in-the-eu/ (01:08:53) » Buchtipp(s) https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Claire-Hughes-Johnson/dp/1953953212 https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Carlota-Perez/dp/1843763311

Drawing on Carlota Perez's framework, Azeem Azhar considers whether large language models, such as OpenAI's GPT-4, will drive a paradigm shift across our economies.

Carlota Perez is a researcher who has studied hype cycles for much of her career. She's affiliated with the University College London, the University of Sussex, The Tallinn University of Technology in Astonia and has worked with some influential organizations around technology and innovation. As a neo-Schumpeterian, she sees technology as a cornerstone of innovation. Her book Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital is a must-read for anyone who works in an industry that includes any of those four words, including revolutionaries.  Connecticut-based Gartner Research was founded by GideonGartner in 1979. He emigrated to the United States from Tel Aviv at three years old in 1938 and graduated in the 1956 class from MIT, where he got his Master's at the Sloan School of Management. He went on to work at the software company System Development Corporation (SDC), the US military defense industry, and IBM over the next 13 years before starting his first company. After that failed, he moved into analysis work and quickly became known as a top mind in the technology industry analysts. He often bucked the trends to pick winners and made banks, funds, and investors lots of money. He was able to parlay that into founding the Gartner Group in 1979.  Gartner hired senior people in different industry segments to aid in competitive intelligence, industry research, and of course, to help Wall Street. They wrote reports on industries, dove deeply into new technologies, and got to understand what we now call hype cycles in the ensuing decades. They now boast a few billion dollars in revenue per year and serve well over 10,000 customers in more than 100 countries.  Gartner has developed a number of tools to make it easier to take in the types of analysis they create. One is a Magic Quadrant, reports that identify leaders in categories of companies by a vision (or a completeness of vision to be more specific) and the ability to execute, which includes things like go-to-market activities, support, etc. They lump companies into a standard four-box as Leaders, Challengers, Visionaries, and Niche Players. There's certainly an observer effect and those they put in the top right of their four box often enjoy added growth as companies want to be with the most visionary and best when picking a tool. Another of Gartner's graphical design patterns to display technology advances is what they call the “hype cycle”. The hype cycle simplifies research from career academics like Perez into five phases.  * The first is the technology trigger, which is when a breakthrough is found and PoCs, or proof-of-concepts begin to emerge in the world that get press interested in the new technology. Sometimes the new technology isn't even usable, but shows promise.  * The second is the Peak of Inflated Expectations, when the press picks up the story and companies are born, capital invested, and a large number of projects around the new techology fail. * The third is the Trough of Disillusionment, where interest falls off after those failures. Some companies suceeded and can show real productivity, and they continue to get investment. * The fourth is the Slope of Enlightenment, where the go-to-market activities of the surviving companies (or even a new generation) begin to have real productivity gains. Every company or IT department now runs a pilot and expectations are lower, but now achievable. * The fifth is the Plateau of Productivity, when those pilots become deployments and purchase orders. The mainstream industries embrace the new technology and case studies prove the promised productivity increases. Provided there's enough market, companies now find success. There are issues with the hype cycle. Not all technologies will follow the cycle. The Gartner approach focuses on financials and productivity rather than true adoption. It involves a lot of guesswork around subjective, synthetical, and often unsystematic research. There's also the ever-resent observer effect. However, more often than not, the hype is seperated from the tech that can give organizations (and sometimes all of humanity) real productivity gains. Further, the term cycle denotes a series of events when it should in fact be cyclical as out of the end of the fifth phase a new cycle is born, or even a set of cycles if industries grow enough to diverge. ChatGPT is all over the news feeds these days, igniting yet another cycle in the cycles of AI hype that have been prevalent since the 1950s. The concept of computer intelligence dates back to the 1942 with Alan Turing and Isaac Asimov with “Runaround” where the three laws of robotics initially emerged from. By 1952 computers could play themselves in checkers and by 1955, Arthur Samuel had written a heuristic learning algorthm he called “temporal-difference learning” to play Chess. Academics around the world worked on similar projects and by 1956 John McCarthy introduced the term “artificial intelligence” when he gathered some of the top minds in the field together for the McCarthy workshop. They tinkered and a generation of researchers began to join them. By 1964, Joseph Weizenbaum's "ELIZA" debuted. ELIZA was a computer program that used early forms of natural language processing to run what they called a “DOCTOR” script that acted as a psychotherapist.  ELIZA was one of a few technologies that triggered the media to pick up AI in the second stage of the hype cycle. Others came into the industry and expectations soared, now predictably followed by dilsillusionment. Weizenbaum wrote a book called Computer Power and Human Reason: From Judgment to Calculation in 1976, in response to the critiques and some of the early successes were able to then go to wider markets as the fourth phase of the hype cycle began. ELIZA was seen by people who worked on similar software, including some games, for Apple, Atari, and Commodore.  Still, in the aftermath of ELIZA, the machine translation movement in AI had failed in the eyes of those who funded the attempts because going further required more than some fancy case statements. Another similar movement called connectionism, or mostly node-based artificial neural networks is widely seen as the impetus to deep learning. David Hunter Hubel and Torsten Nils Wiesel focused on the idea of convultional neural networks in human vision, which culminated in a 1968 paper called  "Receptive fields and functional architecture of monkey striate cortex.” That built on the original deep learning paper from Frank Rosenblatt of Cornell University called "Principles of Neurodynamics: Perceptrons and the Theory of Brain Mechanisms" in 1962 and work done behind the iron curtain by Alexey Ivakhnenko on learning algorithms in 1967. After early successes, though, connectionism - which when paired with machine learning would be called deep learning when Rina Dechter coined the term in 1986, went through a similar trough of disillusionment that kicked off in 1970. Funding for these projects shot up after the early successes and petered out ofter there wasn't much to show for them. Some had so much promise that former presidents can be seen in old photographs going through the models with the statiticians who were moving into computing. But organizations like DARPA would pull back funding, as seen with their speech recognition projects with Cargegie Mellon University in the early 1970s.  These hype cycles weren't just seen in the United States. The British applied mathemetician James Lighthill wrote a report for the British Science Research Council, which was published in 1973. The paper was called “Artificial Intelligence: A General Survey” and analyzed the progress made based on the amount of money spent on artificial intelligence programs. He found none of the research had resulted in any “major impact” in fields that the academics had undertaken. Much of the work had been done at the University of Edinbourgh and funding was drastically cut, based on his findings, for AI research around the UK. Turing, Von Neumann, McCarthy, and others had either intentially or not, set an expectation that became a check the academic research community just couldn't cash. For example, the New York Times claimed Rosenblatt's perceptron would let the US Navy build computers that could “walk, talk, see, write, reproduce itself, and be conscious of its existence” in the 1950s - a goal not likely to be achieved in the near future even seventy years later. Funding was cut in the US, the UK, and even in the USSR, or Union of the Soviet Socialist Republic. Yet many persisted. Languages like Lisp had become common in the late 1970s, after engineers like Richard Greenblatt helped to make McCarthy's ideas for computer languages a reality. The MIT AI Lab developed a Lisp Machine Project and as AI work was picked up at other schools like Stanford began to look for ways to buy commercially built computers ideal to be Lisp Machines. After the post-war spending, the idea that AI could become a more commercial endeavor was attractive to many. But after plenty of hype, the Lisp machine market never materialized. The next hype cycle had begun in 1983 when the US Department of Defense pumped a billion dollars into AI, but that spending was cancelled in 1987, just after the collapse of the Lisp machine market. Another AI winter was about to begin. Another trend that began in the 1950s but picked up steam in the 1980s was expert systems. These attempt to emulate the ways that humans make decisions. Some of this work came out of the Stanford Heuristic Programming Project, pioneered by Edward Feigenbaum. Some commercial companies took the mantle and after running into barriers with CPUs, by the 1980s those got fast enough. There were inflated expectations after great papers like Richard Karp's “Reducibility among Combinatorial Problems” out of UC Berkeley in 1972. Countries like Japan dumped hundreds of millions of dollars (or yen) into projects like “Fifth Generation Computer Systems” in 1982, a 10 year project to build up massively parallel computing systems. IBM spent around the same amount on their own projects. However, while these types of projects helped to improve computing, they didn't live up to the expectations and by the early 1990s funding was cut following commercial failures. By the mid-2000s, some of the researchers in AI began to use new terms, after generations of artificial intelligence projects led to subsequent AI winters. Yet research continued on, with varying degrees of funding. Organizations like DARPA began to use challenges rather than funding large projects in some cases. Over time, successes were found yet again. Google Translate, Google Image Search, IBM's Watson, AWS options for AI/ML, home voice assistants, and various machine learning projects in the open source world led to the start of yet another AI spring in the early 2010s. New chips have built-in machine learning cores and programming languages have frameworks and new technologies like Jupyter notebooks to help organize and train data sets. By 2006, academic works and open source projects had hit a turning point, this time quietly. The Association of Computer Linguistics was founded in 1962, initially as the Association for Machine Translation and Computational Linguistics (AMTCL). As with the ACM, they have a number of special interest groups that include natural language learning, machine translation, typology, natural language generation, and the list goes on. The 2006 proceedings on the Workshop of Statistical Machine Translation began a series of dozens of workshops attended by hundreds of papers and presenters. The academic work was then able to be consumed by all, inlcuding contributions to achieve English-to-German and Frnech tasks from 2014. Deep learning models spread and become more accessible - democratic if you will. RNNs, CNNs, DNNs, GANs.  Training data sets was still one of the most human intensive and slow aspects of machine learning. GANs, or Generative Adversarial Networks were one of those machine learning frameworks, initially designed by Ian Goodfellow and others in 2014. GANs use zero-sum game techniques from game theory to generate new data sets - a genrative model. This allowed for more unsupervised training of data. Now it was possible to get further, faster with AI.  This brings us into the current hype cycle. ChatGPT was launched in November of 2022 by OpenAI. OpenAI was founded as a non-profit in 2015 by Sam Altman (former cofounder of location-based social network app Loopt and former president of Y Combinator) and a cast of veritable all-stars in the startup world that included:  * Reid Hoffman, former Paypal COO, LinkedIn founder and venture capitalist. * Peter Thiel, former cofounder of Paypal and Palantir, as well as one of the top investors in Silicon Valley. * Jessica Livingston, founding partner at Y Combinator. * Greg Brockman, an AI researcher who had worked on projects at MIT and Harvard OpenAI spent the next few years as a non-profit and worked on GPT, or Generative Pre-trained Transformer autoregression models. GPT uses deep learning models to process human text and produce text that's more human than previous models. Not only is it capable of natural language processing but the generative pre-training of models has allowed it to take a lot of unlabeled text so people don't have to hand label weights, thus automated fine tuning of results. OpenAI dumped millions into public betas by 2016 and were ready to build products to take to market by 2019. That's when they switched from a non-profit to a for-profit. Microsoft pumped $1 billion into the company and they released DALL-E to produce generative images, which helped lead to a new generation of applications that could produce artwork on the fly. Then they released ChatGPT towards the end of 2022, which led to more media coverage and prognostication of world-changing technological breakthrough than most other hype cycles for any industry in recent memory. This, with GPT-4 to be released later in 2023. ChatGPT is most interesting through the lens of the hype cycle. There have been plenty of peaks and plateaus and valleys in artificial intelligence over the last 7+ decades. Most have been hyped up in the hallowed halls of academia and defense research. ChatGPT has hit mainstream media. The AI winter following each seems to be based on the reach of audience and depth of expectations. Science fiction continues to conflate expectations. Early prototypes that make it seem as though science fiction will be in our hands in a matter of weeks lead media to conjecture. The reckoning could be substantial. Meanwhile, projects like TinyML - with smaller potential impacts for each use but wider use cases, could become the real benefit to humanity beyond research, when it comes to everyday productivity gains. The moral of this story is as old as time. Control expectations. Undersell and overdeliver. That doesn't lead to massive valuations pumped up by hype cycles. Many CEOs and CFOs know that a jump in profits doesn't always mean the increase will continue. Some intentially slow expectations in their quarterly reports and calls with analysts. Those are the smart ones.

You can listen to this conversation on Spotify, Apple, anchor (and via RSS) or find a full transcript at Compound.“This is the nature of what we do. It's the intersection of business and people and psychology and sociology and numbers. There's a lot of stuff that's always going on that makes sure you never have the game beat, never.”This past June I had the opportunity to interview Michael Mauboussin. I tremendously enjoyed this conversation and I believe it captures Michael's deep curiosity and passion about investing, business, the research process, and being a multi-disciplinary learner.At the time I published a full transcript at Compound. I am happy that I can now share the audio version.I assume many of you are familiar with his work. For an easy introduction check out this 2021 profile. Another excellent piece is his Reflections on the Ten Attributes of Great Investors which incorporates many of his key frameworks. And be sure to check out his new website with a library of his collected writings.If you're looking for an all-in-one solution to manage your personal finances, Compound can help. The firm can help diversify concentrated stock positions, optimize company equity, plan asset allocation, and more. You can sign up for access here.For more information, please check out further disclosures here.“Most investors act as if their task is to figure out a stock's value and then to compare that value to the price. Our approach reverses this mindset. We start with the only thing we know for sure — the price — and then assess what has to happen to realize an attractive return. … The most important question in investing is what is discounted, or put slightly differently, what are the expectations embedded in the valuation?”The below are some of my favorite highlights.You can listen to the conversation on Spotify, Apple, at anchor, and via RSS or find a full transcript at Compound.Druckenmiller, Soros, and position sizing* “When you observe very successful people over very long periods of time in these probabilistic fields, they tend to have certain attributes that are worth all of us paying attention to.”* “Here we have George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller, two legendary investors, who say that [position sizing] is the main thing that drives their returns and results over a long period of time. Whereas we look at the real world, we find that most people don't create a lot of value from sizing and it's all security selection. The question is can we bring those things together to some degree?”Analysts and portfolio managers:* “A very good portfolio manager will be able to focus on the two or three issues that matter most for a particular company. And they're very good at identifying those and honing in on those.”* “There was a letter from Seth Klarman at Baupost to his shareholders. He said, we aspire to the idea that if you lifted the roof off our organization and peered in and saw our investors operating, that they would be doing precisely what you thought they would be doing, given what we've said, we're going to do. It's this idea of congruence.”Holding Amazon for two decades* “I first learned about this company from Bill Gurley who at the time was part of the underwriting team at Deutsche Bank who did the IPO. Bill just said, you should meet these guys because the way they think about things, even though this is a completely nascent industry doing, completely different stuff, the language they're using is the language you're going to be familiar with.* “In the late 1990s, I met Jeff Bezos and Joy Covy, the CFO. … Joy would just say to me, we're big fans of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. We think about return on capital. We think long term. We're making investments that appear to be bad, but when you pencil out the numbers, we think we're going to generate really attractive returns. I bought into that.”* “I was very influenced by a wonderful book by Carlota Perez that came out probably in the early 2000s where she talks about the interplay between technological revolutions and financial capital, one of the points she made was, it's often the case that the hard work happened after the financial bust.”On feedback, learning, and teams of superforecaster (aka investors)* “In every domain elite performers tend to practice. Every sports team practices, every musician practices, every comedian practices. What is practice in investment management? How much time should we be allocating to that?”* “The investment management industry is an industry that draws a lot of really smart people. It's a very competitive, interesting field. It's remarkable in the sense that feedback is very difficult to attain. In the long run it's portfolio performance and so on. But in the short run it's very, very difficult to do.”* “There's a distinction between intelligence quotient and rationality quotient, which is the ability to make good decisions. Along with some of his colleagues he developed a specific test to measure rationality. And if you look at the subcomponents of that test, it seems really consistent with what we would care about as investors. “* “When I say elite teams, or when Tetlock talked about elite teams, this elite teams in superforecasting. So these are the best of the forecasters working together. There are three important things. How big should it be? How do we compose the team? The third and final piece is how you manage the group. And this is usually where the mistakes happen.”Lessons for operators from his book Expectations Investing.* “Executives of public companies in particular should absolutely understand the expectations priced into their stock. The first reason is that if they believe something that the market doesn't seem to be pricing in, they have a communication opportunity.”* “Very few executives really understand how capital markets work. This is almost like our analyst portfolio manager conversation. When you get to that seat, all of a sudden you have responsibilities and skills that become important that you may not have ever dealt with before.”* “Understanding what has to happen for today's price to make sense is just such a fundamentally attractive proposition. And then evaluating whether you think that those growth rates in sales and profit margins and capital intensity and return on in capital that's implied, whether those things are plausible or not, it just makes enormous sense as an approach.”Thank you, Michael!“To be a great teacher, an effective teacher, it's about being a great student, a great learner yourself. I think that comes through if you're doing it well.” This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit alchemy.substack.com/subscribe

Carlota Perez is a British-Venezuelan researcher, lecturer and international consultant. She studies the mutual shaping of technical change and society and the lessons provided by the history of technological revolutions for economic growth and development. In Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages (Elgar 2002), Carlota put forward her theory of the emergence and diffusion of technological revolutions and of the role of finance in the process. She is currently working on a sequel, Beyond the Technological Revolution, funded by Anthemis UK, which will analyse the roles that government, business and civil society play in the deployment of the potential of each revolution. Carlota is Honorary Professor at the Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose (IIPP) at University College London, UK and at SPRU, the Science Policy Research Unit at the University of Sussex, UK; Adjunct Professor of Technology and Socio-Economic Development at the Ragnar Nurkse School of Innovation and Governance at TalTech, Estonia. Her long career has spanned civil service, consultancy, academic research and teaching, beginning in the 1970s with an investigation into the structural causes of the energy crisis in her home country of Venezuela. After working on international technology transfer at the Institute of Foreign Trade in the 1970s, she became the founding Director of Technological Development at the Ministry of Industry (1980-83) – where, alongside other policy instruments to promote innovation, she created the first venture capital fund in the country. Carlota has acted as consultant for several Latin American governments and for international organisations and multilateral agencies such as UN Industrial Development Organisation, United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL), the Andean Pact, the World Bank, the OECD and the EU, where she chaired the European Commission's Horizon 2020 Expert Group for Green Growth and Jobs. Social Links Twitter: @CarlotaPrzPerez Youtube: @CarlotaPerez

Pt. 2 3 hr episode on Utopia and Crisis with Ed Berger (Pseudodoxology podcast) brushes on the history of American Utopian Communities (Mormons, Labadists, Owenites, Catholic E-Girls), their failures and successes, and long wave economic patterns…Carlota Perez, Techno Economic Paradigms, Alfred Sohn Rethel (Real Abstraction) and Finance Punk, the delinking of Gold from the Dollar, epic road trips, Plato & Deleuze, the eternal 1970's, Apocalyptic Fantasies, the decadence movement…Ed introduces the concept of ‘Defluencing', Global Peacekeeping and Nuclear Power, Deep Country Shamanism, The Human Potentiality movement, Hashish, frenetic standstills, ‘Lacanian Maoism' (lol), the end of the microtrend and the introduction of the macrotrend… “The microtrend in and of itself is like a tautology…each individual street trend is a discourse surrounding who started the trend in question, pure self referential, a hall of mirrors.”

Dan talks with CoinShares Chief Strategy Officer Meltem Demirors about the expanding domino effects from the crypto crash (1:07), why VC capital is still flowing into crypto and web3 startups (10:14), how past financial frenzies & bubbles may help reveal what's ahead for crypto (15:35), what crypto companies can do to start creating true value with their products (18;12), and Meltem helping spark a new surge in interest for CryptoDickbutts and what they say about the future of cultural capital and memes (28:08). ---- Read Meltem's latest post: “Building Market Microstructure for NFTs” Check out the writings discussed by Meltem & Dan in the episode:  -Carlota Perez's “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital” -Fred Wilson's “The Carlota Perez Framework” -Ben Thompson's “The Death and Birth of Technological Revolutions” ---- Email us at contact@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod, and follow us @OkayComputerPod. We're on social: Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page

See show notes and transcript here Dan talks with CoinShares Chief Strategy Officer Meltem Demirors about the expanding domino effects from the crypto crash (1:07), why VC capital is still flowing into crypto and web3 startups (10:14), how past financial frenzies & bubbles may help reveal what's ahead for crypto (15:35), what crypto companies can do to start creating true value with their products (18;12), and Meltem helping spark a new surge in interest for CryptoDickbutts and what they say about the future of cultural capital and memes (28:08). ---- Read Meltem's latest post: “Building Market Microstructure for NFTs” Check out the writings discussed by Meltem & Dan in the episode:  -Carlota Perez's “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital” -Fred Wilson's “The Carlota Perez Framework” -Ben Thompson's “The Death and Birth of Technological Revolutions” ---- Email us at contact@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod, and follow us @OkayComputerPod. We're on social: Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page

» Die Themen der Folge 177: --- (00:04:25) » Krypto: Kettenreaktion https://news.sky.com/story/crypto-hedge-fund-three-arrows-capital-plunges-into-liquidation-12642402 https://www.ft.com/content/fa315849-8012-49b5-a830-6a2b5ef3306e https://theathletic.com/3378407/2022/06/28/crypto-crash-premier-league/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hBC5TVdYT8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMZWrNbvg6Q (00:17:45) » BlockFi-Firesale https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/06/30/ftx-closes-in-on-a-deal-to-buy-embattled-crypto-lender-blockfi-for-25-million-in-a-fire-sale.html https://twitter.com/concodanomics/status/1543014818881363968 https://www.axios.com/2022/07/01/blockfi-investors-wpied-out-crypto-lender https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sam-bankman-fried-explores-buying-204516384.html (00:27:50) » Klarna mit Bewertungs-Kollaps https://www.wsj.com/articles/klarna-to-raise-fresh-cash-at-slashed-6-5-billion-valuation-11656692324 (00:35:40) » Neobroker: Robinhood vor Verkauf? eToro, Bitpanda https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-27/bankman-fried-s-ftx-said-to-be-seeking-path-for-robinhood-deal https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/rjc11parqc https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000137075252/bitpanda-oesterreichische-kryptoboerse-soll-haelfte-der-belegschaft-gekuendigt-haben (00:44:55) » Betrug beim Banking erkennen https://www.zeit.de/digital/datenschutz/2022-07/betrug-online-banking-europol-betrugserkennung (00:56:10) » Facebook mit Wachstumssorgen https://www.axios.com/2022/07/01/metas-self-selection-hint-as-layoffs-ramp-up (01:05:25) » Flixbus und die Kehrseite des €9-Tickets https://www.businessinsider.de/politik/deutschland/was-das-neun-euro-ticket-fuer-fernbusunternehmen-wie-flixbus-bedeutet/ (01:11:10) » Tech und die Auswirkungen von Roe v. Wade Entscheidung https://www.theverge.com/2022/7/1/23191965/google-abortion-privacy-policy-location-history-period-tracking-deletion (01:17:35) » Buchempfehlung House of Wirecard https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Dan-McCrum/dp/343021064X Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages https://www.amazon.de/-/en/Carlota-Perez/dp/1843763311/

Nagy Bálint az International Business School marketing karának vezetője. Eredeti végzettsége jogász, de az egyetem után rögtön a marketing osztályon találta magát. A rendszerváltás előtt dolgozott a Malévnál, később dolgozott például a Pizza Hut vagy a Douwe Egberts márkák hazai bevezetésén. A kétezres években viszont kiszállt, elege lett a pénz és a növekedés hajkurászásából és a katedrát választotta. Miért hagyta ott a vállalati marketinges világot?  Miért hisz a metaverzumban? Miért gondolja, hogy a nemnövekedés csak egy utópia? A beszélgetés előtt pedig Carlota Perez sztoriját meséljük el.

Nagy Bálint az International Business School marketing karának vezetője. Eredeti végzettsége jogász, de az egyetem után rögtön a marketing osztályon találta magát. A rendszerváltás előtt dolgozott a Malévnál, később dolgozott például a Pizza Hut vagy a Douwe Egberts márkák hazai bevezetésén. A kétezres években viszont kiszállt, elege lett a pénz és a növekedés hajkurászásából és a katedrát választotta. Miért hagyta ott a vállalati marketinges világot?  Miért hisz a metaverzumban? Miért gondolja, hogy a nemnövekedés csak egy utópia? A beszélgetés előtt pedig Carlota Perez sztoriját meséljük el.

Welcome to Valuable Conversations with the UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose. Today's guest is the legend herself, Dr. Carlota Perez. MPA alumni Teresa Miquel and Justin Beirold talk to Carlota about her life and work. We discuss her journey from architecture to economics (both heavily male-dominated fields), and how she began to formulate her theory of techno-economic paradigms. We also talk about how her theories apply to today's world, with a particular emphasis on Latin America (where both Carlota and Tere are from). Carlota is 82 years young and sharp as a tack. It was an honor to record this conversation, and we hope you enjoy it as much as we did! Guest Bio: Carlota Perez is a leading scholar on the socio-economic impact of technical change and the historical context of growth and development. She's the author of the influential “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages”, and she's currently working on multiple projects which focus on the historical role of the state in shaping the context for innovation. Carlota's career has spanned civil service, academic research, teaching and consultancy. She is currently Honorary Professor at IIPP-UCL and at SPRU, University of Sussex; Professor of Technology and Development at TalTech, Estonia. an Academic-in-Residence at Anthemis. As a consultant she has worked for several Latin American governments and multilateral organisations, such as the UNCTAD, CEPAL, OECD and the World Bank; and for many global corporations, including IBM, Cisco, Telefonica and IKEA. She was recently chair of the European Commission's Horizon 2020 Expert Group for Green Growth and Jobs and is now part of the EU-funded Beyond 4.0 project. -Read more about Carlota from the IIPP: https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/public-purpose/people/carlota-perez -Part 1 of her 9 part blog series for the IIPP: “Second Machine Age or New Technological Revolution.” https://medium.com/iipp-blog/second-machine-age-or-fifth-technological-revolution-part-1-ed66b81a9352 - Follow Carlota on Twitter: @CarlotaPrzPerez Learn about our MPA alumni hosts: -María Teresa Miquel Arce (Link) https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/public-purpose/maria-teresa-miquel-arce -Justin Beirold (Link) https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/public-purpose/justin-beirold Follow IIPP on Twitter: @IIPP_UCL https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/public-purpose/ Production and music by Justin Beirold

This week's podcast is my second SoloCast, and during the episode, I share my thoughts and some predictions on the potential impacts and implementations of web3. The blockchain can be basically defined as a cryptographic breakthrough that allows for openness but with very careful editing permissions. While web1 resulted in costless publication and web2 in costless communication, web3 allows for costless transactions. This will likely increase the number of transactions we make. Web3 can also create cheap digital scarcity which may help authenticate originality in the digital world. Why does this all matter? My answer to this question regards the implications of web3 on the cost of trust and decentralization. Currently, the cost of trust in the market is relatively high, and with increasing transactions and original creations occurring via the blockchain, we will have to pay less for trust. Also, there will be less need for centralized parties such as brands or centralized banks, though it's too early to say which authorities will all be affected. Next, I make some predictions about what will happen as the blockchain gets deployed. The first to be impacted is the management of digital items, with finance and gaming among the earlier industries. Also, we will likely see digital components getting separated from analog components so that they can be managed on the blockchain. Another trend that may happen is that the blockchain may be implemented to manage atoms in the real world. To wrap up the SoloCast, I explore the implications of web3. It will probably impact managerial culture, and DAOs (distributed autonomous organizations) will likely take over some market share from companies. I also believe the biggest networks will be bigger than the biggest companies, in part because there is no cap on involvement in web3 networks and ecosystems. My goal in sharing my thoughts is not just to tell you what I think will happen but to provide some notions and rough directions so that you can hopefully overlay some of these lessons into your own experience and expertise. Web3 is still not easy to navigate, and it is still early in its implementation, but it provides incredible opportunity, and it is fun to get involved.   Links:    Eric's Blog   Eric's blog post on digital scarcity   Eric's Blog post on The Cost of Trust   Technological revolutions and Financial Capital by Carlota Perez   SquidDAO   Topics:   (0:08) - Introducing the Web3 discussion   (4:13) - What is the Blockchain?   (6:06) - Lowering transaction costs across Web1, Web2 & Web3   (9:46) - Creating cheap, digital scarcity   (12:12) - Why does the blockchain matter? Trust & Decentralization   (18:50) - What happens when blockchains are deployed? Digital and Physical impacts.   (26:26) - Technological Revolutions & Financial Capital by Carlotta Perez   (28:23) - DAO: Distributed Autonomous Organization   (30:51) - Predictions: The biggest networks will be bigger than the biggest companies   (39:03) - Wrap Up: What do you have to do?   (42:02) - Web3 is supposed to be fun!   Additional Episodes If You Enjoyed: Jason Hitchcock: Your Guide to Web3 Simon Judd: How Index Coop is Building Crypto Index Products   If you want to support the podcast, here are a few ways you can:  >> Buy a copy of the Navalmanak: www.navalmanack.com/  >> Share the podcast with your friends and on social media  >> Give the podcast a positive review to help us reach new listeners  >> Make a weekly, monthly, or one-time donation: https://app.omella.com/o/9Bufa  >> Follow me on Twitter: @ericjorgenson >> Learn more and sign up for the “Building a Mountain of Levers” course and community: https://www.ejorgenson.com/leverage  I appreciate your support!     Important quotes from Naval on building wealth and the difference between wealth and money:   How to get rich without getting lucky. - Naval Ravikant   Making money is not a thing you do—it's a skill you learn. - Naval Ravikant   I came up with the principles in my tweetstorm (below) for myself when I was really young, around thirteen or fourteen. I've been carrying them in my head for thirty years, and I've been living them. Over time (sadly or fortunately), the thing I got really good at was looking at businesses and figuring out the point of maximum leverage to actually create wealth and capture some of that created wealth. - Naval Ravikant   Seek wealth, not money or status. - Naval Ravikant   Wealth is having assets that earn while you sleep. - Naval Ravikant   Money is how we transfer time and wealth. - Naval Ravikant   Ignore people playing status games. They gain status by attacking people playing wealth creation games.    You're not going to get rich renting out your time. You must own equity—a piece of a business—to gain your financial freedom.  - Naval Ravikant   The most important skill for getting rich is becoming a perpetual learner. You have to know how to learn anything you want to learn. The old model of making money is going to school for four years, getting your degree, and working as a professional for thirty years. But things change fast now. Now, you have to come up to speed on a new profession within nine months, and it's obsolete four years later. But within those three productive years, you can get very wealthy. - Naval Ravikant     Important quotes from the podcast by Naval on Leverage:   “Give me a lever long enough and a place to stand, and I will move the earth.”  —Archimedes    To get rich, you need leverage. Leverage comes in labor, comes in capital, or it can come through code or media. But most of these, like labor and capital, people have to give to you. For labor, somebody has to follow you. For capital, somebody has to give you money, assets to manage, or machines. - Naval Ravikant   Fortunes require leverage. Business leverage comes from capital, people, and products with no marginal cost of replication (code and media). - Naval Ravikant   Capital and labor are permissioned leverage. Everyone is chasing capital, but someone has to give it to you. Everyone is trying to lead, but someone has to follow you. - Naval Ravikant   Code and media are permissionless leverage. They're the leverage behind the newly rich. You can create software and media that works for you while you sleep. - Naval Ravikant   If you can't code, write books and blogs, record videos and podcasts. - Naval Ravikant   Leverage is a force multiplier for your judgment. - Naval Ravikant   Apply specific knowledge, with leverage, and eventually you will get what you deserve. - Naval Ravikant   “We live in an age of infinite leverage, and the economic rewards for genuine intellectual curiosity have never been higher. Following your genuine intellectual curiosity is a better foundation for a career than following whatever is making money right now.” - Naval Ravikant   Important Quotes from the podcast on Business and Entrepreneurship   There is no skill called “business.” Avoid business magazines and business classes. - Naval Ravikant   You have to work up to the point where you can own equity in a business. You could own equity as a small shareholder where you bought stock. You could also own it as an owner where you started the company. Ownership is really important.     Everybody who really makes money at some point owns a piece of a product, a business, or some IP. That can be through stock options if you work at a tech company. That's a fine way to start.    But usually, the real wealth is created by starting your own companies or even by investing. In an investment firm, they're buying equity. These are the routes to wealth. It doesn't come through the hours. - Naval Ravikant

Eric Jorgenson is an investor, business builder, startup growth strategist and the author of "The Almanack of Naval Ravikant". He also runs the online Leverage Course which I'm attending right now. In this conversation, we discuss both Naval Ravikant's wisdom, why and how Eric curated it into a book that I highly recommend, as well as how the Leverage Course came about. They don't teach you this kind of material in business schools or in any executive development or leadership programs. And yet, I would have loved to have had access to this kind of material 15 or 20 years ago. I firmly believe that many of these tools, models and insights are going to be fundamental for surviving and thriving in the world we live in. We also explored areas such as WEB03, crypto and the concept of permissionlessness. A number of projects that I'm actively working on today owe quite a lot of their design and the momentum behind them to Eric and his materials.  What is Covered:  - How the idea to curate Naval Ravikant's reflections into a book came about and the results it produced - The concept of premissionlessness and who are the gatekeepers in today's world - The mental model of leverage and how to reinvest in leverage  - WEB03 and its impact on future society  Key Takeaways and Learnings:  - There's a lot of ways to earn money if you unbundle the concept of a career, and all you're trying to do is get money in the most suitable way possible for your particular set of tastes and interests - Permissionlessness is an important concept to embrace, because the Internet of meritocracy and WEB03 technology is making opportunity more global and more universally available by the day. - You can continually reinvest in leverage and go from 1x productivity to 10x or to 100x productivity. This type of leverage is not leverage over somebody. We are all somebody else's leverage, this is a mutually beneficial agreement between all of us that results in consumer surplus Links and Resources Mentioned in This Episode: - Almanck of Naval Ravikant: A Guide to Wealth and Happiness, by Eric Jorgenson https://www.navalmanack.com/  - Leverage Course by Eric Jorgenson https://www.ejorgenson.com/leverage  - Connect with Eric Jorgenson on Twitter https://twitter.com/ericjorgenson  - Principles: Life and Work by Ray Dalio https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Life-Work-Ray-Dalio/dp/1501124021  - How Not How: The Formula to Achieve Bigger Goals Through Accelerating Teamwork, by Dan Sullivan and Dr. Benjamin Hardy  https://www.amazon.com/Who-Not-How-Accelerating-Teamwork/dp/B08KYKR23H/  - Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital, by Carlota Perez https://www.amazon.com/Technological-Revolutions-Financial-Capital-Dynamics/dp/1843763311/  - The Infinite Machine: How an Army of Crypto-Hackers is Building the Next Internet with Ethereum https://www.amazon.com/Infinite-Machine-Crypto-Hackers-Building-Internet/dp/B07XJ7WKXL/  - Drug Cartels, Vanguard and Goldman Sachs with Codie Sanchez on Jorgenson's Soundbox Podcast  https://www.ejorgenson.com/podcast/drug-cartels-vanguard-goldman-sachs-codie-sanchez - Into the DAO with Simon Judd: How Index Coop is Building Crypto Index Products on Jorgenson's Soundbox Podcast https://www.ejorgenson.com/podcast/into-the-dao-with-simon-judd-how-index-coop-is-building-crypto-index-products  - WaitButWhy and G64 Co-Founder Andrew Finn on How to Acquire a Free Company on Jorgenson's Soundbox Podcast https://www.ejorgenson.com/podcast/waitbutwhy-co-founder-andrew-finn-on-how-to-acquire-a-free-company  - Chris Dixon and Naval Ravikant — The Wonders of Web3, How to Pick the Right Hill to Climb, Finding the Right Amount of Crypto Regulation, Friends with Benefits, and the Untapped Potential of NFTs on The Tim Ferris Show https://tim.blog/2021/10/28/chris-dixon-naval-ravikant/  - Bankless Podcast http://podcast.banklesshq.com/  - Mohnish Pabrai: Cloning, Learning from Charlie Munger, 100 Baggers on OutsideVoices Podcast https://outsidelens.com/mohnish-pabrai-cloning/  - Nicholas Thomas: The Return of Curiosity - Encounters with the Unknown on OutsideVoices Podcast https://outsidelens.com/nicholas-thomas-the-return-of-curiosity/  Connect with Mark Bidwell: - LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/markbidwell/  - Twitter https://twitter.com/markehb

Ric Fulop is the Chairman, CEO and co-founder of Desktop Metal (NYSE: DM), a leader in mass production and turnkey additive manufacturing solutions. DM is changing the game in 3D printing with printers that can print a variety of metals, carbon fibers, wood composites, and more. The convo is short and fast-paced - Ric is a really busy guy. But its rife with a ton of advice to young entrepreneurs on how to pick a market problem to solve. Lessons learned from his previous company, A123 Systems, a battery company that also went public, yielded his repeated advice: High margins, recurring revenue, low account concentration. He also references Carlota Perez, an economist at LSE, whose work talks about technological breakthroughs and how they transition from installation to deployment phases. It's really valuable stuff. We also talk about how he formed A123 by licensing a technology from MIT, how he runs DM, and much more. Enjoy! More about Ric Prior to founding Desktop Metal in October 2015, Ric was a General Partner at North Bridge, a VC fund with $3 billion under management, for five years following a fifteen- year career as an entrepreneur. Ric is the founder of six technology companies, including A123 Systems, Boston's largest IPO in the past decade and one of the world's largest automotive lithium ion suppliers with revenue exceeding $500M in 2016. At North Bridge, Ric led the software and 3D investing practices and was an early stage investor and board member in Dyn (acquired by Oracle for $600 million), Onshape, MarkForged, Salsify, Lytro and Gridco. Ric is a former Board Member of the Electric Drive Transportation Association and holds an MBA from the MIT Sloan School where he was a Sloan Fellow. More about Desktop Metal Founded in 2015 by leaders in advanced manufacturing, materials science, and robotics, the company is addressing the unmet challenges of speed, cost, and quality to make metal 3D printing an essential tool for engineers and manufacturers around the world. With solutions for every stage of the manufacturing process - from prototyping and pilot runs to mass production and aftermarket parts - we are reinventing the way engineering teams produce metal and composite parts across a wide range of applications and industries. Learn more about DM on their website and follow Ric on Twitter. Join the Bountiful community today and realize your power to save the world. Don't forget to follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn if you haven't already.

I'm an accidental entrepreneur. I started Box of Crayons about twenty years ago because I had just been fired from the job I had, and I was slowly coming to realise that I was largely unemployable - not because I didn't have some skills, but because I wasn't good with bosses and hierarchy. I'm also a barely-adequate entrepreneur. Both companies I've started have had some success, and just keeping a company going for twenty years is commendable. But I'm not going to be making an appearance on Shark Tank or Dragon's Den anytime soon. The truth of it is that I don't think I'm an entrepreneur at all. It's too loaded and fancy a word, and sort of implies that I'm trying to create a billion-dollar business. Maybe I'm just confused - what is an entrepreneur, anyway?  Seth Levine is a Silicon Valley venture capitalist, right at the heart of being and thinking about entrepreneurship. I think you'll find Seth to be a little different from your typical Silicon Valley tech guru. Get‌ ‌book‌ ‌links‌ ‌and‌ ‌resources‌ ‌at‌ https://www.mbs.works/2-pages-podcast/  Seth reads two pages from ‘Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital' by Carlota Perez. [reading begins at 16:08] Hear us discuss:  “There are lots of people who have great business ideas, but don't have the capital to start their businesses.” [25:00] | What makes a new founder? [26:00] | Finding the balance between purpose and profit. [28:52] | Misconceptions of entrepreneurship. [33:31] | Being a good ally: “A lot of people in power don't think about their ability to affect other people by extending their network.” [36:33]

#Bitcoin #Shibainu #coinbaseI'd like to welcome everyone to my new YOUTUBE CHANNELDave's Daily Crypto TakeIn this channel I will be providing you with news on a daily basis about cryptocurrency, bitcoin, blockchain, FIAT. My main purpose is to share UNBIASED news and updates. Ultimately I learn and hopefully you learn while I go on this journey.ARTICLES used in today's video:https://stratechery.com/2021/the-death-and-birth-of-technological-revolutions/The Death and Birth of Technological RevolutionsWhat was especially remarkable about Carlota Perez's Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital was its timing: 2002 was the middle of the cold winter that followed the Dotcom Bubble, and here was Perez arguing that the IT revolution and the Internet were not in fact dead ideas, but in the middle of a natural transition to a new Golden Age.Note: the following is a woefully incomplete summary of what is a brilliant — and very readable — book. Jerry Neumann has written an excellent overview of Perez's theory at Reaction Wheel; I highly recommend reading that first if you are unfamiliar with Perez's work.https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/120223/coinbase-announces-nft-waitlist-following-lead-of-rivals-binance-and-ftxCoinbase announces NFT waitlist, following lead of rivals Binance and FTXCoinbase is breaking into the market for non-fungible tokens, announcing Tuesday the waitlist for access to Coinbase NFT — making it the latest crypto firm to dive into the speculative frenzy.The new offering — which is being spearheaded by Coinbase's VP of Product, Sanchan Saxena — will allow users to mint, purchase, and showcase NFTs. To start it will support Ethereum-based NFTs, but it has plans to expand to other chains after it launches.  https://ambcrypto.com/this-unexpected-factor-can-take-bitcoin-to-500000-next-year/This unexpected factor can take Bitcoin to $500,000 next year2021 has been a year of crashes for Bitcoin, leaving even experts unsure as to what the king coin might decide to do next.As 2022 inches closer, investment expert Anthony Pompliano spoke to Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model creator Plan B. They discussed Bitcoin prices, whether the market would turn bearish, and Plan B's personals strategies for analyzing Bitcoin.https://finbold.com/almost-40-of-all-shib-tokens-are-now-in-public-hands/Almost 40% of all SHIB tokens are now in public handsFollowing an impressive recent run, Shiba Inu (SHIB) is currently trading in the red on Tuesday, October 12th, 2021, although the new weekly session began in the green.Interestingly, according to the verified token supply information by CoinMarketCap, the asset which is known for its enormous total supply, has 39.47% of all SHIB tokens trading in the public's hands, indicating that almost 40% of the total number of coins circulating on the market is in the public's ownership.https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/12/if-you-invested-100-in-bitcoin-in-2011-this-is-how/?source=isafpbcs0000001&utm_source=flipboard&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=firehoseIf You Invested $100 in Bitcoin in 2011, This Is How Much You'd Have NowIn early 2011, the then-obscure cryptocurrency Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) reached $1 per coin for the first time. It was a milestone celebrated by the few crypto-enthusiasts around back then. The rest of the world was either oblivious or left scratching their heads about what Bitcoin even was.Everyone has heard of Bitcoin now. As of this writing, the price per coin is more than $57,000, representing a total market capitalization of almost $1.1 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap. Therefore, owning 100 bitcoins -- a mere $100 investment in early 2011 -- would be worth an eye-popping $5.7 million today.Of course, this hypothetical windfall ignores a very important point -- you probably couldn't have invested $100 in Bitcoin back then. At least not as easily as you can today. Here's why, why it matters, and what it might mean for the price of Bitcoin in the future.https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/https://coinmarketcap.com/Please subscribe, like, and share so that more and more people can view this content.DISCLAIMER: I will never give any financial advice. And my channel is not considered official Financial Advice. Please do your research before purchasing any cryptocurrency.Thank you very much DaveSupport this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/daves-daily-crypto-take/donations

The world is in the middle of an information revolution, and it's a situation, economist Carlota Perez says, we've been in before. Capitalism resets every few decades, and follows a familiar pattern: An investment frenzy boosts new technologies that change how people live and interact, but when that craze eventually collapses, it leaves behind social upheaval and resentment. To stop that cycle, this time, Perez says on the latest episode of The BoF Podcast, we need to deliberately disassemble society's most harmful systems and ingrained beliefs so that every country and every person is included in the sustainable future of the earth. “We can shape the Information Revolution into a green golden age,” said Perez. She added that the fashion industry has a huge role to play, saying, “It's up to you to reinvent what we understand by fashion… and it's up to you to rethink, reinvent, redesign.” That reinvention and redesigning means interrogating what wealth, well-being, and pleasure are — and untethering those ideas from physical things. Perez joined Imran Amed last year at VOICES, BoF's annual gathering for big thinkers, to discuss what needs to happen to harness the information revolution to become more sustainable and inclusive. Globalisation is happening, but it needs to be reworked to include all people and nations. Until now, globalisation has seen businesses chasing lower costs, and has been concentrated in Asia. “We need to discover what each area of the world, what each country can do, and re-invent, but with consensus — not just with government deciding but working together with business to re-conceptualise each bit of territory, each city,” says Perez. Both individual lifestyle changes as well as government action are required to create a greener, more sustainable future — which benefits businesses and the whole of society, not just the one percent. “We need to work together… Every golden age has been a win-win... with the government staging the game,” says Perez. The fashion industry needs to stop perpetuating a cycle of waste and instead focus on creating high-quality, long-lasting products that can be reused and redesigned. That requires completely rethinking the clothing industry — a daunting but feasible and necessary task. “If you put your brilliant heads to solving this problem and making money along the way, you will succeed,” concludes Perez. “But you've got to recognise the obstacles. If you deny it, you're going to die, and you can't die — we need you.” To learn more about BoF VOICES 2021, to be held from Dec 1-3, 2021, please click here. Related Articles: The Definitive Guide: How to Build a Sustainable Fashion Brand Fashion's Greenwashing Problem Begins with Bad Data How to Avoid the Greenwashing Trap Join BoF Professional for the analysis and advice you need. Get 30 days for just $1 or explore group subscriptions for your business.

The Agenda

On today’s show, we explore rational explanations for pricing bubbles, how the concept of human capital relates to financial decisions, and a whole lot more! We kick things off with a discussion of Ashley Whillans’ book Time Smart, which explores proven strategies for improving your ‘time affluence’. Diving into this week’s portfolio topic, we use a previous discussion about Carlota Perez’s model for technological revolutions as a springboard to introduce Lubos Pastor and Pietro Veronesi’s mathematical arguments that present a rational explanation for pricing bubbles. Perez maintains that prices get bid up too high during technological revolutions due to ‘frenzy’ but we unpack two papers by Pastor and Veronesi where they argue differently, drawing on the concepts of uncertainty and discount rates. From there, we dive into the relationship between human capital, life insurance and asset allocation for our planning topic. We provide some definitions for the term ‘human capital’ and discuss how it differs from other forms of capital. A key idea we explore here is that the more risky your human capital is, the less life insurance you should take out. Along with this, you’ll hear a few quick suggestions for how you should approach life insurance and bonds depending on age, financial wealth, risk aversion, and other factors. Tune in today!   Key Points From This Episode: Talking COVID, next week’s guests and Rational Reminder Community updates. [0:0:18] Book of the week: Rethinking conventional notions of time well spent in Time Smart. [0:04:07] News updates: Stories about Bitcoin, marijuana stocks, and more. [0:08:56] Portfolio Topic: Whether pricing bubbles are caused by rational behaviour. [0:14:19] Unpacking Pastor and Veronesi’s paper connecting uncertainty to high prices. [0:18:25] Pricing bubbles as caused by discount rates; a second Pastor and Veronesi paper. [0:27:48] ‘IPO waves’ connected to the bubble discussion in a third Pastor and Veronesi paper. [0:37:58] Planning topic: How the concept of human capital relates to financial decisions. [0:44:45] The importance of considering asset allocation decisions and life insurance needs together. [0:54:46] Bad advice of the week: ‘The Market’s Invisible Guardrails Are Missing’. [1:01:16]

Joseph Conrad, the innovator's dilemma, creative destruction, Carlota Perez, Canadian indie rock band The Rheostatics...it's all here. Dell Technologies' Vish Nandlall, vice president, Technology Strategy & Ecosystems, discusses the evolution of networks toward cloud-native architecture, the concurrent shift in network equipment provider dynamics, and what all of that means for service providers working to deliver and monetize 5G services.

As counter-intuitive as it may seem, most of the companies that push us into the next technological revolution deliver poor investment returns. Today we look at current and historical data to show why this is the case but first, we chat about the top financial news of the week. Borrowing heavily from Carlota Perez’s Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital, we then explore how the links between tech revolutions and investing adhere to a consistent model. Following this model, we discuss how our current information-led revolution is as impactful as revolutions experienced in previous generations. We touch on the factors that lead to innovation, historical perspectives of technology companies, and the many investing phases resulting from tech revolutions. Despite making for poor returns, we talk about why the frenzy of investing that accompanies innovation is good for that industry and leads to a golden age of tech adoption and growth. A key takeaway, we dive into how investors are paying too much for the expected growth of new companies and that there is little to no link between massive growth and high stock returns. From guessing the next IPO winner, we move to our planning topic of the week — how to be a successful household CFO. We close this episode with our bad financial advice of the week. There’s a lot of pressure in the market to invest in tech. Despite that, tune in to hear why you shouldn’t invest in the next technological revolution.   Key Points From This Episode: Hear about host Benjamin Felix’s burgeoning 3D printing addiction. [0:0:06] Sharing listener feedback and messages from the Rational Reminder community. [0:02:02] Robinhood and why users are treated as the product, not the customer. [0:04:33] News on what might be the largest cash raise in IPO history. [0:07:25] How most ETF assets are in products that were launched prior to 2015. [0:09:24] Benjamin shares details about his project exploring the value of investing in tech revolutions. [0:11:05] Modelling the consistent sequences that technological revolutions follow. [0:14:38] Why current tech revolutions are as powerful as those experienced in previous generations. [0:16:55] Which common factors lead to tech revolutions. [0:18:31] Looking at historical examples of innovations and the performance of tech companies. [0:20:35] Why innovative big companies become unable to lead the next tech revolution. [0:23:18] How explosive growth and a frenzy of investment is common during early tech breakthroughs. [0:29:30] Signs that our current tech bubble has begun to pop. [0:34:45] The benefits of investment frenzy phases for tech industries and society as a whole. [0:36:15] Exploring what happens after phases of investment frenzy. [0:38:10] Evidence showing that investors pay too much for the expected growth of new companies. [0:42:42] Why there is no link between massive industry growth and stock returns. [0:50:00] Applying lessons from our discussion to our current investing environment. [0:52:03] Why you probably shouldn’t put your money in the technological revolution. [0:58:04] How people operate as unofficial CFOs within their households. [01:02:45] The many tasks that household CFOs need to perform. [01:05:20] Bad advice of the week; swap your bonds for dividend-paying stocks. [01:10:42] Why increasing inflation may be a key post-pandemic government strategy. [01:15:40]

Nesta edição, André Franco e Vitor Borges falam sobre a recente euforia no mercado cripto conforme o bitcoin atingiu a alta em reais, atualmente em quase R$ 77,5 mil. Vitor menciona Carlota Perez, escritora conhecida por estudar momentos de "bolhas" e "eras" de tecnologias inovadoras (ouça a edição #35). Teses de investimento nos ajudam a ter cautela e inteligência financeira ao navegar pelo mercado e, apesar de a história não se repetir da mesma forma, podemos estimar alguns acontecimentos. André relembra o primeiro ETF de bitcoin do mundo, desenvolvido pela brasileira Hashdex em parceria com a Nasdaq, que pode abrir as portas para o investimento institucional em cripto (edição #50). Grandes empresas já demonstram muito interesse no bitcoin, como a MicroStrategy e Square. Entre termos como "escassez digital", "CBDCs", produtos de investimento em bitcoin, "ETFs", "altcoins", como ter prudência antes se render à euforia de mercado? Como entender as múltiplas facetas do atual ciclo? O "bull market" acabou? Altcoins também irão subir? Aperte o play para conferir. Veja quais foram as recomendações do Mineração da Semana no Crypto Times.

Niall Ferguson, Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and the author of numerous books including The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World and most recently, the Square and the Tower: Networks and Power from the Freemasons to Facebook, and Michael Casey, chief content officer at CoinDesk and coauthor of two books on crypto, The Age of Cryptocurrency and The Truth Machine, discuss the history of money and the macro environment for Bitcoin. We cover: how they became involved in crypto historically, what has made things money, or how people have decided that something is money the difficulty of managing fiat currency modern monetary theory and the role of the state in the financial system Satoshi's message in BTC's genesis block and what that indicates about Satoshi's intentions with Bitcoin  whether a more transparent, blockchain-based financial system could eventually lead to a new financial order how Bitcoin behaves like an option on digital gold, and when it will behave like digital gold whether Bitcoin is simply a reversion to previous forms of money that weren't controlled by the state how crypto/blockchain and fintech innovation from startups and the Chinese government will affect the USD how a hypothetical war between the US and China would affect the dollar's dominance how China's DCEP could disintermediate banks  how Bitcoin fits into all of the different macro conditions facing the global economy whether Libra is going to be the initial gateway getting people into our digital currency world how well the recovery from coronavirus will go, and how it will affect the development of the crypto space in the near-term   Thank you to our sponsors!   Crypto.com: https://crypto.com   Tezos: https://tquorum.com/   Episode links:    Niall Ferguson: http://www.niallferguson.com   The Ascent of Money: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/302900/the-ascent-of-money-by-niall-ferguson/   Michael Casey: https://www.michaeljcasey.com   Money Reimagined: https://www.coindesk.com/tag/money-reimagined The Age of Cryptocurrency: https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250081551   The first episode in the Why Bitcoin Now series: Mike Novogratz and Raoul Pal on 'the Single Greatest Brand' ofo the Last 10 Years:  https://unchainedpodcast.com/why-bitcoin-now-mike-novogratz-and-raoul-pal-on-the-single-greatest-brand-of-the-last-10-years/   How Niall got into Bitcoin: http://www.niallferguson.com/journalism/finance-economics/bitcoin-may-go-pop-but-its-revolution-will-go-on   Niall and Michael at Consensus: https://www.coindesk.com/disruption-money-and-a-world-of-change-feat-niall-ferguson   Unchained interview with Chamath Palihapitiya, who believes Bitcoin is a hedge on everything blowing up: https://unchainedpodcast.com/chamath-palihapitiya-why-bitcoin-will-be-the-category-winner/   Carlota Perez at CoinDesk's Consensus: https://www.coindesk.com/video/carlota-perez-on-blockchains-and-technological-revolutions   Unchained interview about the DCEP: https://unchainedpodcast.com/why-china-aims-to-replace-cash-with-the-digital-yuan/   Unchained interview with Christopher Giancarlo about a digital dollar: https://unchainedpodcast.com/christopher-giancarlo-why-the-us-needs-to-have-a-digital-dollar/   Unconfirmed episode with Michael about Libra: https://unchainedpodcast.com/why-it-would-be-good-if-libra-rivaled-the-us-dollar/ Unchained episode with a co-creator of Libra: https://unchainedpodcast.com/a-libra-co-creator-on-how-facebook-will-make-money-from-calibra/

Niall Ferguson, Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and the author of numerous books including The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World and most recently, the Square and the Tower: Networks and Power from the Freemasons to Facebook, and Michael Casey, chief content officer at CoinDesk and coauthor of two books on crypto, The Age of Cryptocurrency and The Truth Machine, discuss the history of money and the macro environment for Bitcoin. We cover: how they became involved in crypto historically, what has made things money, or how people have decided that something is money the difficulty of managing fiat currency modern monetary theory and the role of the state in the financial system Satoshi’s message in BTC’s genesis block and what that indicates about Satoshi's intentions with Bitcoin  whether a more transparent, blockchain-based financial system could eventually lead to a new financial order how Bitcoin behaves like an option on digital gold, and when it will behave like digital gold whether Bitcoin is simply a reversion to previous forms of money that weren’t controlled by the state how crypto/blockchain and fintech innovation from startups and the Chinese government will affect the USD how a hypothetical war between the US and China would affect the dollar's dominance how China's DCEP could disintermediate banks  how Bitcoin fits into all of the different macro conditions facing the global economy whether Libra is going to be the initial gateway getting people into our digital currency world how well the recovery from coronavirus will go, and how it will affect the development of the crypto space in the near-term   Thank you to our sponsors!   Crypto.com: https://crypto.com   Tezos: https://tquorum.com/   Episode links:    Niall Ferguson: http://www.niallferguson.com   The Ascent of Money: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/302900/the-ascent-of-money-by-niall-ferguson/   Michael Casey: https://www.michaeljcasey.com   Money Reimagined: https://www.coindesk.com/tag/money-reimagined The Age of Cryptocurrency: https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250081551   The first episode in the Why Bitcoin Now series: Mike Novogratz and Raoul Pal on 'the Single Greatest Brand' ofo the Last 10 Years:  https://unchainedpodcast.com/why-bitcoin-now-mike-novogratz-and-raoul-pal-on-the-single-greatest-brand-of-the-last-10-years/   How Niall got into Bitcoin: http://www.niallferguson.com/journalism/finance-economics/bitcoin-may-go-pop-but-its-revolution-will-go-on   Niall and Michael at Consensus: https://www.coindesk.com/disruption-money-and-a-world-of-change-feat-niall-ferguson   Unchained interview with Chamath Palihapitiya, who believes Bitcoin is a hedge on everything blowing up: https://unchainedpodcast.com/chamath-palihapitiya-why-bitcoin-will-be-the-category-winner/   Carlota Perez at CoinDesk's Consensus: https://www.coindesk.com/video/carlota-perez-on-blockchains-and-technological-revolutions   Unchained interview about the DCEP: https://unchainedpodcast.com/why-china-aims-to-replace-cash-with-the-digital-yuan/   Unchained interview with Christopher Giancarlo about a digital dollar: https://unchainedpodcast.com/christopher-giancarlo-why-the-us-needs-to-have-a-digital-dollar/   Unconfirmed episode with Michael about Libra: https://unchainedpodcast.com/why-it-would-be-good-if-libra-rivaled-the-us-dollar/ Unchained episode with a co-creator of Libra: https://unchainedpodcast.com/a-libra-co-creator-on-how-facebook-will-make-money-from-calibra/

Laurie Barkman speaks with Bobby Zappala and Andy Ellis, Managing Partners of Localize Capital. This episode highlights an innovative financing approach for family owned businesses that supports long-term growth and the independence of emerging entrepreneurs. It's a strategy that may resonate with legacy businesses, technology creators, and anyone who believes it is possible for companies to grow without financial returns being dependent on a liquidity event. Show Notes: Bobby Zappala LinkedIn Andy Ellis LinkedIn Localize Capital Management website Carlota Perez innovation wave theory Edelweiss Holdings Company Succession Stories Podcast LinkedIn Community

In this episode, we’re speaking to Nicolas Colin, co-founder & director of The Family, a pan-European investment firm founded in 2013 and headquartered in London. Nicolas publishes an extremely valuable newsletter European Straits about entrepreneurship, finance, strategy and policy, with a European perspective. He’s also the author of three books, one of which is Hedge: A Greater Safety Net for the Entrepreneurial Age and member of the board of directors at Radio France, and a former commissioner at CNIL (the French personal data protection authority). Nicolas also contributes to several other outlets, such as co-host at Nouveau Départ with his wife Laetitia Vitaud (in French), and as a columnist at Sifted.  In this conversation, we try to unpack why Nicolas thinks the current crisis is going to accelerate the transition to what he has recently called a more “mature entrepreneurial economy” and what he means with the Entrepreneurial Age is, a concept he uses to describe the networked computing-powered world where individuals - or users - are more important than having fixed assets on a balance sheet.  We also talk about the balance between building organizations based on attracting outsiders and the need to be resilient to sudden drops in users, which some tech companies seem to get wrong. Remember that you can find the show notes and transcripts from all our episodes on our  Medium publication.  To find out more about Nicolas Colin’s work:> Twitter: https://twitter.com/Nicolas_Colin> Newsletter: https://europeanstraits.substack.com/> Nicolas Colin (2018). Hedge: A Greater Safety Net for the Entrepreneurial Age: https://www.amazon.com/Hedge-Greater-Safety-Net-Entrepreneurial/dp/1718917082 Other references and mentions:> Structural Shifts podcast by Aperture, “Previewing the post-pandemic World”, with Nicolas Colin, Laetitia Vitaud and Ian Charles Stewart: https://medium.com/aperture-hub/previewing-the-post-pandemic-world-17-7be38279c2c7> Babak Nivi coined the term “Entrepreneurial Age” (2013): https://venturehacks.com/the-entrepreneurial-age> Carlota Perez’ work on technological revolutions: http://www.carlotaperez.org/> Balaji Srinivasan On The Argument For Decentralization - Part 1, Pomp Podcast #295: https://youtu.be/SU6H-5kA0FA > Fernand Braudel, on Civilisation and Capitalism, 15th-18th Century, in 3 volumes: https://www.amazon.com/Civilization-Capitalism-15th-18th-Century-Vol/dp/0520081145:> Find out more about the show and the research at Boundaryless at www.platformdesigntoolkit.com/podcast> Thanks for the ad-hoc music to Liosound / Walter Mobilio. Find his portfolio here: www.platformdesigntoolkit.com/musicRecorded on May 29th 2020

As the economic dimension of the COVID-19 crisis comes into clearer view, what have we learned about the battle for the future of money? Does the dollar reign supreme? Are within-the-system competitors like the euro or China’s digital yuan gaining ground? Does an outside the system alternative like bitcoin stand a chance?  Over the last month, the “Money Reimagined” series has looked at the battle for the future of money.  Episode 1 focused on the dollar and why it is simultaneously stronger and more set up to fail than ever before.  Catch up: Why the Dollar Has Never Been Stronger or More Set Up to Fail Episode 2 was all about the obvious contenders to replace the dollar such as the euro or China’s currency, especially as they race towards a digital yuan. It also looked at where Facebook’s Libra might fit in the mix. Catch up: The Rise of the Dollar Killers Episode 3 looked at one of the most unique features of this modern currency battle - the fact that there are fundamentally new systems like bitcoin in the running. Can a non-sovereign currency actually be more relevant than global fiats?  Catch up: Where Bitcoin Fits in the New Monetary Order This final episode of the “Money Reimagined” series checks in on each of the previous episodes but brings a new set of voices to the mix. Between May 11 and May 14, CoinDesk hosted Consensus:Distributed, a virtual summit featuring some of the leading lights in crypto, finance, economics and pop culture. In this episode, we hear from those voices, including: Lawrence Summers - former U.S. Treasury Secretary Christopher Giancarlo - former Chairman of the CFTC Michelle Phan - YouTube innovator and founder of Ipsy Chaoping Zhao - founder and CEO of Binance  The Winklevoss brothers - founders of Gemini  The Chainsmokers - Grammy-winning artists  Carlota Perez - influential economist   

As the economic dimension of the COVID-19 crisis comes into clearer view, what have we learned about the battle for the future of money? Does the dollar reign supreme? Are within-the-system competitors like the euro or China’s digital yuan gaining ground? Does an outside the system alternative like bitcoin stand a chance? This episode is sponsored by ErisX, The Stellar Development Foundation and Grayscale Digital Large Cap Investment Fund.Over the last month, the “Money Reimagined” series has looked at the battle for the future of money. Episode 1 focused on the dollar and why it is simultaneously stronger and more set up to fail than ever before. Catch up: Why the Dollar Has Never Been Stronger or More Set Up to FailEpisode 2 was all about the obvious contenders to replace the dollar such as the euro or China’s currency, especially as they race towards a digital yuan. It also looked at where Facebook’s Libra might fit in the mix.Catch up: The Rise of the Dollar KillersEpisode 3 looked at one of the most unique features of this modern currency battle - the fact that there are fundamentally new systems like bitcoin in the running. Can a non-sovereign currency actually be more relevant than global fiats? Catch up: Where Bitcoin Fits in the New Monetary OrderThis final episode of the “Money Reimagined” series checks in on each of the previous episodes but brings a new set of voices to the mix. Between May 11 and May 14, CoinDesk hosted Consensus:Distributed, a virtual summit featuring some of the leading lights in crypto, finance, economics and pop culture. In this episode, we hear from those voices, including:Lawrence Summers - former U.S. Treasury SecretaryChristopher Giancarlo - former Chairman of the CFTCMichelle Phan - YouTube innovator and founder of IpsyChaoping Zhao - founder and CEO of Binance The Winklevoss brothers - founders of Gemini The Chainsmokers - Grammy-winning artists Carlota Perez - influential economist

Bestselling author, lecturer and economy and technology expert Carlota Perez had a conversation with #nexxworks Content Director Laurence Van Elegem about technological revolutions, transition periods, populism, recessions, golden ages, the impact of Covid, the role of governments to set the context for a golden age, monopolies and the glass ceiling for young people. Find out more about innovation and the future of your company on nexxworks.com!

This episode is sponsored by ErisX, The Stellar Development Foundation and Grayscale Digital Large Cap Investment Fund.In this session, scholar Carlota Perez delivers the keynote on Blockchains and Technological Revolutions. She then joins Placeholder's Chris Burniske to answer audience questions.

Stowe describes his calling as “the ecology of work and the anthropology of the future”. He’s founder of Work Futures, where he explores critical themes of the future of work, and top writer in Economics, Leadership and Futures on Medium. He also writes extensively about work technologies and serves as a Gigaom editor.In our conversation, we talk about how platforms contribute to changing the relationship between consumers and producers and how this — in turn — leads to re-shaping organizations, as firms optimize for a low transaction cost economy. We also talk about fairness and the importance of distributed governance to be transparent and reliable, allowing the players in an ecosystem to operate without constantly “covering their backs”.How to find Stowe Boyd and his work:> Medium: https://medium.com/@stoweboyd> Work Futures: https://workfutures.org/Mentions and references:> Rent the Runway: https://www.renttherunway.com/> Amoeba Management | Management Philosophy | KYOCERA, https://global.kyocera.com/philosophy/amoeba.html> Stanley McChrystal, Chris Fussell, Tantum Collins, David Silverman (2015): Team of Teams: New Rules of Engagement for a Complex Worldhttps://www.goodreads.com/book/show/22529127-team-of-teams> Carlota Perez social and economic impact of technical change (including S curves): http://www.carlotaperez.org/>Follow the work of Ben Evans and Ben Thompson: https://www.ben-evans.com/newsletter; https://stratechery.com/> "In all chaos, there is a cosmos, in all disorder a secret order." - Carl Jung, https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/carl_jung_157280> Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic and Cindy Gallop in HBR on female leadership https://hbr.org/2020/04/7-leadership-lessons-men-can-learn-from-women> Participatory City: http://www.participatorycity.org/about Music by liosound.Recorded on April 3rd 2020

As mentioned in Episode 1 of The Idealcast, this is Dr. Mik Kersten’s talk from DevOps Enterprise Summit Las Vegas 2018 with exclusive commentary from Gene. , In his presentation, Mik dives into the Flow Framework featured in his work, Project to Product: How to Survive and Thrive in the Age of Digital Disruption with the Flow Framework.  Get Mik’s insights on building a foundation for innovation in the software field. Follow along as he breaks down the lessons learned as a leader in tech working with brands like Microsoft and BMW. Find out what they got right and what he says anyone looking to innovate in tech should start doing immediately. This is a perfect followup to Episode 1.  Episode Timeline: [00:03] Intro  [00:52] Meet Mik Kersten  [02:35] The Flow Framework  [03:24] Working at Xerox PARC  [05:29] Epiphany #1: Software architecture and the value stream [06:15] Epiphany #2: How Nokia lost the market it created [08:57] Epiphany #3: Software innovation and tools for transformation [12:33] Carlota Perez and tech revolutions [14:39] BMW, Lean principles  [18:30] Optimizing business value flow in IT [22:24] How Microsoft excelled where Nokia couldn't [25:10] Flow efficiency and moving towards a connected value network [27:42] How they're applying flow framework at Tasktop [29:49] Business advice for developers [31:22] Finding Dr. Mik Kersten  [32:02] Outro    ABOUT THE GUESTS Dr. Mik Kersten started his career as a Research Scientist at Xerox PARC where he created the first aspect-oriented development environment. He then pioneered the integration of development tools with Agile and DevOps as part of his Computer Science PhD at the University of British Columbia. Founding Tasktop out of that research, Mik has written over one million lines of open-source code that is still in use today, and he has brought seven successful open-source and commercial products to market.   Mik’s experiences working with some of the largest digital transformations in the world has led him to identify the critical disconnect between business leaders and technologists. Since that time, Mik has been working on creating new tools and a new framework for connecting software value stream networks and enabling the shift from project to product.   Mik is the author of the book Project to Product: How to Survive and Thrive in the Age of Digital Disruption with the Flow Framework. Mik lives with his family in Vancouver, Canada, and travels globally, sharing his vision for transforming how software is built.     Visit Mik’s Website   YOU’LL LEARN ABOUT Ways to optimize business value flow for IT How fragmented value streams kill productivity. The role proxy metrics and silos play in derailing software transformations. Why project management and cost centered is the wrong model for transforming a business. RESOURCES Slides to Mik Kersten’s Project to Product: How to Survive and Thrive in the Age of Digital Disruption with the Flow Framework The Unicorn Project: A Novel about Developers, Digital Disruption, and Thriving in the Age of Data by Gene Kim Zone to Win: Organizing to Compete in an Age of Disruption by Geoffrey A. Moore Project to Product: How to Survive and Thrive in the Age of Digital Disruption with the Flow Framework by Mik Kersten The Phoenix Project: A Novel About IT, DevOps, and Helping Your Business Win by Gene Kim, Kevin Behr, and George Spafford Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital by Carlota Perez “Project To Product: Beyond the Turning Point,” presentation by Mik Kersten at DevOps Enterprise Summit Las Vegas, 2019 “How Value Stream Networks Will Transform IT and Business,” presentation by Mik Kersten at DevOps Enterprise Summit London, 2018 “How Value Stream Networks Will Transform IT and Business,” presentation by Mik Kersten at DevOps Enterprise Summit Las Vegas, 2018 Bill Gates: Trustworthy Computing, Wired

Ash Fontana of Zetta Venture Partners joins Nick on a special Crisis Coverage installment to discuss The AI Investing Playbook; Why "Dev Tools" for Data Scientists is the Next Great Opportunity; When Fund Returns Don't Fit the Power Law; and Ash's Favorite Investment Heuristic from Naval Ravikant. In this episode, we cover: Zetta III was announced recently, a $180M fund for founders building AI-first companies. You went from $60M -> $125M -> $180M... how was the fundraise different this time around? Quickly can you give us your definition of an AI-first company? What will you be doing differently with the new fund and how does the pandemic affect your approach? Tom Tunguz just mentioned that in the data they're analyzing they are seeing a drop in spend on Machine Learning Infrastructure.  How much of a concern is this to you and your portfolio companies? With the launch of the new fund, you outline focus areas both Applications as well as infrastructure and tools...Is the application-layer ready to leverage AI in a significant way or is there still a lot headway that needs to be made at the infrastructure level first? Carlota Perez has written about technology cycles and how new technologies typically go through this installment phase, w/ rapid development and heavy investment, followed by crash and subsequent recovery leading to the deployment phase...  in your estimation where are we in the tech life cycle of AI and is it really ready (or will it be ready over the next 3-7 years) for mass deployment? How effective are the AI models today when much of the input data, generally speaking, is flawed? Talk about the next 3-5 years for Data Science... we've seen significant advances in developer tools and systems for software but I still feel like we're at very early stages in evolution, efficiency and scalability of data science tools/fundamentals. Does your fund returns follow the power law? Part of the advantage to AI-first startups is the supreme data moat that they can build, preventing others from gaining traction w/ competitive solutions. While this is an advantage for the startups that get a head start (and their investors) is there an adverse impact on other startups that are founded later and don't have the extensive data sets? Many of the startups you invest in are "deep-tech" and will not monetize and grow ARR the same way many familiar SaaS or transactional businesses will.  What are the major gating factors to raise each of a Seed Round, a Series A and a Series B, in these longer cycle tech-first approaches? You've create a Playbook on how to build an AI-first company.  It's evergreen with plans to update regularly as you work w/ companies...  I wonder if you might give us the basics... What do AI-First companies have in their DNA and when building a company, what's the sequence and major building blocks required at the early stages? Last time you were on the show you mentioned you learned a lot of great heuristics and mental models from Naval Ravikant. Can you give us a couple of these that have been really valuable in helping you quickly frame startup investment potential? To listen more, please visit http://fullratchet.net/podcast-episodes/ for all of our other episodes. Also, follow us on twitter @TheFullRatchet for updates and more information.

In which I shamelessly draft off Marc Andreessen’s It’s Time to Build essay and suggest an approach to how, what, and where to do the building. I also have a framework I call the builder’s cone to think about it in a useful historical context.1/ If you’re in tech, you’ve probably read Marc Andreessen’s essay It’s Time to Build (ITTB). It’s the first serious public thing he’s written in nearly a decade, after his 2011 WSJ op-ed, Software is Eating the World (SWEW). 2/ As most of you know this site and newsletter, Breaking Smart, came out of work I did with a16z on that idea, so obviously this new essay from Marc is of high personal interest to me, since it is in some sense, an important sequel.3/ I thought I’d do this episode partly because a new generation of people in technology seems to have no idea who Marc is, and assumes he is just another VC, and that this is just another shallow take from the VC thought leader crowd that you can dismiss casually. Whether you agree or disagree with Marc, dismissing this essay casually is honestly just not a smart thing to do, so I want to try and give you a bit of an appreciation for it before diving into what I want to add to it.4/ For those of you unaware of the history, Marc developed the first graphical web browser back in 1992, Mosaic, which later turned into Netscape. Later he also founded one of the first cloud computing companies, Opsware, with Ben Horowitz who later became his cofounder in a16z. This is basic history which I personally think everybody working in tech or reporting on it should just know.5/ Something I don’t expect everyone to know is, he’s also a huge reader, and as you’ll know if you’ve talked to him, or follow him on Twitter. For every seemingly casual thing he says, he usually has 3 books and 10 papers he can cite. So even if you don’t agree with things he says — and I often don’t — it’s worth taking him seriously. He tends to present his thinking in a deceptively casual way, but there’s always more depth behind it than you would guess from a quick glance.6/ Now for this essay. Like most things Marc says, I agree broadly with his argument. If you’re an engineer, with any experience at all in building things, it’s kinda hard to see this essay as anything other than tautological. I mean of course building is good. That’s the starting point if you’re in technology. The devil is in the details.7/ I do tend to have somewhat different ideas from Marc about what aspects of building/doer culture are the important ones, and in general trust markets a little less, and state institutions a little more. He and I have had a productive ongoing conversation about this stuff for almost 7 years now.8/ There’s a lot you can argue with in the essay, for example, his characterization of right and left attitudes towards building, but I’m not going to get into that, since plenty of others are doing that. And if you want critical views of the essay, there’s no shortage out there, and of course some of them make good points, while others are just shallow bits of the techlash. It’s what you’d expect for an essay like this in 2020.9/ What’s interesting to note is that unlike the SWEW, ITTB has had a very divided reception, which to me is an indication of the stage of the historical building cycle we’re in more than the specifics of what Marc is arguing. 10/ In particular, In 2011, when he wrote the SWEW essay, we had just moved from what I call the alternatives stage to the disruptions stage. Now we’re moving from the disruptions stage to the macro-rebuilding stage. Marc has offered an answer to the question when to build on a grand scale, which is obviously now, or very soon, after the first response to Covid19 is behind. What I want to do is build on what Marc wrote, no pun intended, and talk about how, what, and where to build. 11/ So here’s the theory. Building goes through cycles, with different kinds of building required at each stage of the cycle. Carlota Perez’s Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital is a good framework for thinking about these.12/ As it applies to building, the Perez model can be thought of as 4 stages. In the first stage you build tools, in the second stage, you build alternatives to existing things. In the third stage, you disrupt existing things via a bunch of isolated disruptions. In the last stage, you do a whole sale macro-rebuilding from foundations on up.13/ Somewhere along the way, there’s usually a big disaster, so you can link each complete building cycle to its disaster. The last two were linked to World War I and World War 2, this one is obviously linked to the pandemic. 14/ The disaster doesn’t always happen at a set phase of the cycle. For example, in WW1 it happened late in the disruption phase, when the macro-rebuilding was just starting. For example, asphalt roads being built for cars, which were disrupting horses. 15/ For WW2, it happened a little earlier, towards the end of the alternatives phase. For example, Chevrolet had pioneered an alternative to the Ford style one-size-fits all inflexible mass manufacturing. Disruption continued through the war, and the macro rebuilding happened in peacetime, with the Marshall Plan as part of the war reconstruction for example.16/ For the Covid19 pandemic, the disaster has hit in roughly the same part of the cycle as it did in World War I, just as the disruption wave was going to give way to the macro rebuilding stage anyway. 17/ So what’s happened is: what I called the dessert course of software eating the world has coincided with a big disaster, and accelerated the process. I covered this in passing, in last week’s article on Pandemic Time, but I want to get at it more directly here.18/ There’s two other things to think about in relation to this building cycle. The first is how individuals change, and the second is how society as a whole changes. I like to think in terms of 4 degrees of change depending on the phase of the building: reorient, revalue, resituate, and regenerate, that apply to both individuals and society.19/ In reorienting, you change your mental models, for example realizing that digital media tools can do what paper printing can. So you wrap your mind around different tools. Like the graphical web browser, which Marc invented, rather than the printed book.20/ In the revaluing phase you start valuing different things, for example, you value instant publishing and live conversations with readers more than the cachet of a brand-name publisher behind your book. So you build an alternative: blogs instead of books.21/ In the resituating phase, you change how you exist in the world. For example, calling yourself a blogger instead of an author. You’ve created a new role in the world.22/ And finally, in the regeneration phase, you change on the inside, you internalize the external label/role you’ve taken on. Like Doctor Who.23/ Now here’s the thing, entire societies can go through this same kind of transformation. For example, in the WW1 cycle, the identity of the typical American changed from farmer to factory worker as the country urbanized, and America itself went from thinking of itself as an agrarian backwater playing second fiddle to Europe to a technological superpower. The self-image of the entire nation changed. Subjective transformation.24/ Now what’s the upshot of all this. Here’s the thing, if you make a graph with x-axis being how deeply you as an individual are changing, and the y-axis being how deeply society is changing, it gives you a two-dimensional space where individuals can be ahead or behind society, and being matched with the times, or not. 25/ The ideal case is when the two are somewhat balanced, or when the individual is changing slightly faster, but not too fast, relative to the rest of society. The balanced case is the diagonal line, x=y. So for example, you and society are reorienting at the same rate, or revaluing at the same rate.26/ Below that line, the individual is changing faster. The sweet spot is a cone slightly below the diagonal, which I like to call the builder’s cone. If you are too far ahead of society, too far ahead of the curve, you might be too early, and turn into a frustrated visionary. 27/ Or worse, you might end up going to the dark side and using your ahead-of-the-curve status to exploit others through profiteering, because it’s easier than building. Being too far ahead of that curve creates that tempation.28/ Above the diagonal line is of course much worse, which is why I have represented it as a red zone. If you’re changing much more slowly than society as a whole, you get this left-behind feeling, and develop a deep sense of being exploited. Like people left behind in the 80s by Reagan’s deregulation. You develop resentment and what political scientists call ressentiment.29/ So putting it all together, the sweet spot for builders is to be changing slightly ahead of society at large, and working at the right phase of the building cycle. So right now, we’re obviously in a macro-rebuilding phase that’s gone way past simple disruption.30/ You should be thinking at that scale of ambition. Like Marshall plan scale, or foundational rebuilding phase, based on the logic of software eating the world. You should be reading about those periods of history to get an idea of how to proceed.31/ I’m going to close with a bit of personal advertising. For those of you who want to take up Marc’s call to build, as you may know, the original essays of Breaking Smart were based on his software eating the world essay, and you can read them online or as an ebook. 32/ I also have an online recorded workshop based on those ideas, that you can sign up for. It’s based on live workshops I conducted in 2015 and 2016, plus some extra material. I’m thinking of adding a new recorded session on these ideas about building in the next few weeks.So that’s it for this free episode/issue of Breaking Smart. For those of you just signed up for this newsletter, or had it forwarded to you, Breaking Smart is a weekly subscription newsletter where every week I send out either a free or a paywalled issue exploring some aspect of technology and the future. The free issues are podcast episodes or short essays on a current topic, and the paywalled ones are either an installment of one of my longer projects, or a stand-alone special topic essay. Right now, I’m working on two such longer projects, a book about time called The Clockless Clock, which has one chapter already published, and an essay collection called The Great Weirding, the first essay of which will go out next week, hopefully. Get full access to Breaking Smart at breakingsmart.substack.com/subscribe

Jerry Neumann (@ganeumann), founder of Neu Venture Capital, joins Erik on this episode.They discuss:- Carlota Perez’s work and the implications for investors and founders, including what would change if VCs took her ideas seriously.- What people misunderstand the most about moats.- Why he wants to invest in situations where there is uncertainty, and what the right kind of uncertainty is.- Whether you can predict what the next technological revolution will be, and why the predictions themselves end up shaping the future.- Why he says that the power law distribution in venture is a result of the picking process.- How he thinks about follow-on investments.- Venture capital and poker.- The reasons that the structure of venture funds hasn’t changed.Thanks for listening — if you like what you hear, please review us on your favorite podcast platform. Check us out on the web at villageglobal.vc or get in touch with us on Twitter @villageglobal.

Jerry Neumann (@ganeumann), founder of Neu Venture Capital, joins Erik on this episode.They discuss:- Carlota Perez’s work and the implications for investors and founders, including what would change if VCs took her ideas seriously.- What people misunderstand the most about moats.- Why he wants to invest in situations where there is uncertainty, and what the right kind of uncertainty is.- Whether you can predict what the next technological revolution will be, and why the predictions themselves end up shaping the future.- Why he says that the power law distribution in venture is a result of the picking process.- How he thinks about follow-on investments.- Venture capital and poker.- The reasons that the structure of venture funds hasn’t changed.Thanks for listening — if you like what you hear, please review us on your favorite podcast platform. Check us out on the web at villageglobal.vc or get in touch with us on Twitter @villageglobal.

In another fantastic episode, Mik's plus one is Dr. Carlota Perez, author of Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages. In this episode, Mik and Carlota discuss: - Where we are in the Turning Point of the Technological Revolution, and the challenges of achieving the Golden Age - What leaders in organizations and governments can do to think and act differently to survive the Technical Revolution and Turning Point - The lifestyle and characteristics of mass production and mass consumption, and the need to move from tangible products to non-tangible services - Successful examples of traditional enterprises that are shifting into the direction of turning their products into services - What Carlota is currently working on, including researching the historical context of the different revolutions, and the future of the Golden Age and how to stay optimistic New episode every two weeks. Subscribe to the Mik + One podcast today so you never miss an episode and don't forget to leave your review. Follow Mik on Twitter: @mik_kersten #MikPlusOne www.projecttoproduct.org www.tasktop.com About Carlota Perez: Prof. Carlota Perez is a British-Venezuelan scholar who studies the socio-economic impact of major technical change. Author of the influential Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital, she is Honorary Professor at the Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose (IIPP), University College London, and at SPRU, University of Sussex, UK. She is also Visiting Professor at the Nurkse Institute, TalTech, Estonia. She works globally as consultant and speaker. Carlota's current research project analyses the historical role of government in shaping the context for innovation. www.carlotaperez.org/ @carlotaprzperez

While in many ways it feels like we live in unprecedented economic times, through another lens we have been here before. Dr. Carlota Perez charts economic cycles around technological breakthroughs, and she provides needed clarity on our current economic moment. In this episode, she discusses where we are in today's economy, how we could proceed forward in a productive way, and the stakes in getting this moment right.

Professor Carlota Perez has spent her career researching the profound impact technology has had on socio-economic development.  In this fascinating interview, we explore the two distinct phases of a technological revolution as outlined by Carlota: installation – or experimental early phase – and deployment (or “Golden Age”).  Carlota emphasizes the critical role governments play in this phase. By setting a clear and context-sensitive pathway for the transformation through new policies, regulations and taxes, the state can ensure a win-win outcome for both business and society.  Considering the trends from the four previous technological revolutions, Carlota compares the current socio-economic situation to the 1930s and suggests how we can move forward towards a sustainable golden age for our information revolution. Carlota Perez is a Venezuelan-British researcher and educator, currently affiliated to three universities in the UK ­– LSE, IIPP-UCL and SPRU (Sussex) – and to TalTech in Estonia.  She specializes in the relationship between technology and socio-economic development, with a focus on techno-economic paradigm shifts and the theory of great surges (a development of Schumpeter's work on Kondratieff waves). Her book, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages, published in 2002, has had a profound impact on our understanding of how technology shapes our institutional, economic, and social development.   The post Episode 61: Interview with Carlota Perez, Centennial Professor of International Development at the London School of Economics appeared first on The Sustainability Agenda.

Should we look to governments, philanthropists or entrepreneurs to solve our problems? We're joined by Sean Park, Founder of Anthemis, a fintech-focused venture capital firm, to discuss. There's a strong school of thought in the West that the private sector and market dynamics are sufficient to optimize economic, political and social outcomes. Is that true? Thinkers like economist Carlota Perez believe that government plays an important role in directing private sector activity to enable true innovation. The Chinese government is actively prioritizing AI research in an effort to become the world leader in the next wave of technological progress. A growing group of voices in the West is reminding us of the role the US government played in the development of the Internet and calling for renewed public sector involvement in business. Sean was an early investor in Climate Corporation, Markit, Betfair and Zoopla and is widely recognized as a leading independent thinker on the future of financial services Do you have an opinion on this subject? Contribute to the conversation on Twitter, LinkedIn or on our website at bankingthefuture.com. If you like today's episode, please take 30 seconds to rate us on iTunes and share us with a friend. Thank you very much for joining us today. Please welcome, Sean Park.

Bob chats with Microsoft Azure DevOps Product Owner and author of Agile Software Engineering with Visual Studio, Sam Guckenheimer, at the DevOps Enterprise Summit 2018. Connect with Sam and Bob on Twitter.   Transcript Sam Guckenheimer ‑ DevOps Enterprise Summit 2018 Bob Payne:  "The Agile Toolkit." [music] Bob:  Hi, I'm your host Bob Payne. I'm here at the DevOps Enterprise Summit 2018 with Sam Guckenheimer. Welcome, Sam. Sam Guckenheimer:  Thank you, Bob. It's great to be here. Bob:  It's the first time we're really chatting. We chatted a tiny bit last night. My colleague Sanjiv Augustine said you were instrumental in hosting The Agile leadership network when it formed and came up with the declaration of Interdependence. How did that end up coming about? Sam:  Well, that was no what 14 years ago or something like that. [laughter] Sam:  What we saw was at that time that this was of course way pre‑DevOps. The Agile community had fractured into many groups saying "More agile than thou." That seemed stupid. Bob:  That fracturing has continued and remains as stupid today or... [laughs] Sam:  Yes. Unfortunately, the fracturing has continued and it hasn't gotten less stupid. That was the reason for trying to get the interdependence declaration together to get these leading lights from what was then the Agile community working together. In the meantime, the pure Agile has largely been eclipsed by DevOps. As you see something like this DevOps Enterprise Summit going on its fifth year roughly doubling every year in scale. I'm here now. Still there. [laughter] Bob:  There are a number of things that I found at this conference that I haven't been able to make a ton of sessions because we have a booth. I've found that I haven't really learned, maybe this is my own fault, anything at the Agile conferences for probably about 10 years. It wasn't any substantially interesting information. Sam:  That's correct. I last keynoted at the Agile conference in 2014. That's probably the last time I've been there. It got kind of stale. The energy in innovation, in practice I think has really shifted to DevOps. That's come about, because the DevOps' definition of Dunn is not potentially shippable and promotes... [crosstalk] Bob:  It's captured a value, enlargement value. Sam:  It's live in production with Telemetry that is demonstrating the value delivered. Going from a world where you were effectively stopping at an intermediate activity that didn't reach the customer or end‑user to go to one where you have to reach the end‑customer and you have to measure the value delivered, is much, much more powerful for all the stakeholders, for the business, for the people involved. It's much more satisfying. You disintermediate the development to customer relationship. You think of things as one engineering discipline, not as silos post the Scrums, so to speak. Bob:  Certainly there were a number of great Agile teams and organizations that fully believed that Dunn meant in the hands of customers and delivering whatever goal, that... [crosstalk] Sam:  I do not mean to bash anyone. I certainly think there great Agile teams. A lot of what we do today has its roots in extreme programming, but things like XP at the time, had this notion of, for example, pair programming. We have largely, as a community, moved to the notion of a pull request as a virtual pair programming. We have moved from the idea of onsite customer to measuring customer impact, which isn't to say onsite customer is a bad idea, it's a great idea, it's a rarely achievable one. All of these seeds that were planted back then in the late '80s by the early Agilists were important seeds. The garden where I think they're really bearing fruit now is in this DevOps community. Bob:  The other thing that I think is probably the next wave that we will see in organizations that are not already there, certainly, many organizations have already integrated business into this flow. Without that DevOps is necessary but not sufficient to actually change the outcomes that businesses are seeing. That's the next frontier for those companies that we're not sort of born in the world of IT as the fundamental driver of business outcomes. Sam:  That's correct. DevOps is the flip side of the coin from digital transformation. Digital transformation is the business term for taking your business model and turning it into one that can improve continuously in an Internet‑powered age. DevOps is the shorthand for the technical practices that enable that. Bob:  I see way too many organizations mistaking a DevOps transformation for digital transformation. They're fundamentally doing the DevOps practices, but they're not backing up into the initial value proposition to begin with. That will sort itself out. Sam:  This is a common thing of confusing means and ends. The ends are things around growing the business customer, acquisition customer, engagement customer, employee delight, all of these measures of happiness and success. The practices are ways of getting there. The goal is to focus however on those end results. The clear sign of dysfunction is when you see people measuring the inputs, not the outputs. Bob:  If Deming or [inaudible 7:33] came back and saw that Toyota was doing the same practices it was doing 75 years ago they would drop dead after having just come back to life. [laughs] In real systems the practices and the processes are never the ends. They are all in service of maximizing flow... [crosstalk] Sam:  Exactly. If you think about the evolution, the practices today are different because the constraints are different. One of the overriding constraints was for example infrastructure availability. You get all of the stuff around how to manage and schedule the infra. Today with the public cloud that constraint is gone. It's a classic example of, in Eliyahu Goldratt terms, elevating the constraint or removing the bottleneck. Then you see the constraint shifting. As you're adopting these practices what happens is you have a continual shift of the constraint, and you have the next one to attack the next bowling pin to knock down. [crosstalk] Sam:  Right. What DevOps says has basically taught us as well. You can remove infrastructure a constraint by using the cloud. You can focus on the value delivered to the customer and measure it so you can have both qualitative and quantitative view of that. You can take the quality game and shift it left and right so that quality does not become this big testing bottleneck in the middle. It can become part of the pull request flow. It can happen before code merges. Then you can in production gradually expose value to more and more of users so that the blast radius is something that's flexible, so you don't have the constraint of saying, "I need to master my MTBF in order to release." You can say, "I need to maximize my ability to recover and may have the shortest time to recover, so that by controlling the blast radius and being able to recover quickly I can experimentally by increasing the rate of experimentation I can deliver and measure value delivered on a cycle that was never possible in the old days." It wasn't possible before we had the Internet, it wasn't possible before it hit the public cloud, it wasn't possible before we had these practices of high‑quality, highly‑rugged automation that we do today. Bob:  Yeah it has been a sea change since I did Fortran on punch cards [laughs] . Sam:  There have been many sea changes yes. Mike Pearson gave a great talk yesterday, borrowing from Carlota Perez on the structure of industrial revolutions, and postulates that we're at the point of disruption from the period of adoption to the period of dispersion. That would account for a lot of the changes that we're seeing, and it would account for a lot of the anxiety that you see among people who are saying, "How do I learn fast enough? How do I catch up fast enough? How do I get ahead?" At the same time, what you see very clearly reflected in company success, company's market gap, and company's ability to innovate and pivot, is that the ones who have mastered the go‑fast‑without‑breaking‑things‑and‑adjust‑course‑as‑you‑go, are the ones that are winning in pretty much every sector. Bob:  I love Mark Schwartz's analogy of the battle of the Russians with Napoleon, and the speed of decision‑making being fundamentally out of sync with the reality of the battle. Sam:  Exactly, that was also true on Omaha beach in Normandy, that was true in Vietnam, that's been true in pretty much every military conflict, that the degree of autonomy and speed of innovation has determined the outcome in the end, and people who are great at enabling the next war instead of fighting the last ones, are the victors. The latest example decide or...I don't know if that's politically correct to go there, but you see it now in... Bob:  [laughs] That have been substantially politically correct on this podcast [laughs] . Sam:  You see this in cyber. The Russian budget for cyber is less than the cost of an F‑35. Bob:  No one could argue that the F‑35 is more costly than it needs to be but it's... [laughs] . [crosstalk] Sam:  Who cares? The point is, they're not trying to win the manned aerial dogfight. They are extending the notion of total war to a new battlefield and they've been very successful, but finding the place where there are no defenses and where it's possible to innovate quickly and it's proven to work. You could also argue that as David Sanger does in "The Perfect Weapon", that the US started this cyber‑war arms race. In any event, we've not follow through on the consequences of what we started. The military analogies, they turn some people off, but they have their value. We are, and the rest of society also, in a place where we need to be winning the future, not the past. Bob:  It's actually one of the analogies I quite often use when I'm talking to people that are OK with the military analogies. The OODA loop, the Boyd loop of observe‑orient‑decide‑act. The team that can turn that loop the fastest, whether it's Amazon, Netflix, or a manned‑aerial dogfight, or a cyber‑attack, is going to win. Sam:  Exactly. In our world, the OODA loop results in some kind of software or service delivered. One of the things we know from measuring it is that about a third of the time, we get the results we'd want, a third of the time, we get opposite result from what we hypothesized, and about a third of the time, it makes no difference. The implication of that is that you want to be able as quickly as possible, to double down on the successful third and fail fast or pivot away from the other two thirds, which means that you need to make the OODA loop as short as possible, which is what Boyd talked about in his idea of aircraft design and aerial battle. That's exactly true in how we develop and that means not just using small batches which Agile taught us. That means not just breaking down the silos, but it means really focusing on time to remediate and focusing on quality to the left so that you have clean delivery and you have the mechanism in production to control exposure and to go faster and wider as you need to. Bob:  You mentioned the one‑third, one‑third, one‑third, I know that was a study that came out in Microsoft. Actually... [crosstalk] Sam:  Ronick O' Harvey was behind that. Ronny is now a technical fellow, he wasn't back then. He basically took a very large sample of "improvements" that were delivered. Let's measure, are these really improving, what we wanted? The result was a third of the time, in other words, I've confirmed the others' change is bad, unless is great. That was quantitative demonstration of that. I don't know if he published that before he did a stand for PhD or after, but it was a famous study and it holds up. Bob:  I also very much like this idea of very small batches, because without the small batches, it's hard to get attribution of what improved the customer experience and what was neutral or negative, because you're conflating way too many changes if the batch is large. Sam:  That's why the pull request flows becomes successful, because you can make the pull request a batch that is a few lines of change, it's possible to have a human‑code review on it, and it's possible to have extensive automation on it. Again, an example of a practice that wouldn't have been possible pre‑cloud is when we do pull requests, we run the build‑in automation on them with typically 80‑some thousand tests before asking for the human‑code review. Human eyes are only focused on those things that automation has said looked good already. As opposed to the way things were done, pre‑cloud in the XP pair programming model, where human eyes were first defense. That was very appropriate given the constraints at the time. The constraints of today are different. Bob:  That was certainly one aspect of pairing. The other is just as the design discipline getting the collaborative design quite often yields better results, but... [crosstalk] Sam:  I totally think that people should collaborate on design. I'm totally for that. I'm not trying to.. Bob:  I totally get the point about the quality. Is automation...we want lazy engineers [laughs] . We want engineers focusing on creative thought, rather than repetitive action. Sam:  Exactly. Another example of that that's possible these days, is you want a very high reuse, an open source. If you can solve a problem with 30 lines of code and reuse thousands, that's much better than creating 3000 lines of codes that need to be maintained. In effect, we want to reward people for writing less code, which again turns on it's head, one of those classic input matrix and myths of, "Well, how much code did you write? How busy were you? How many hours did you put in?" As opposed to, "What result did you achieve?" Bob:  What are some DevOps practices that have really changed Microsoft fundamentally? I know you've got a couple of talks related to that here at the conference. Sam:  I bucket our lessons learned, usually in five groups. One is how we focus on value delivered to the customer, both quantitatively and qualitatively, and let that drive the way we think about what we're delivering and how we measure that. Two is how we apply production‑first mindset. Our CEO tends to call this a live‑site culture, in other words, you build it, you test it, you run it, you secure it, you troubleshoot it, you improve it with responsibility residing in you, the creating team, not getting fragmented across these Silos. Three is the idea of team autonomy and enterprise alignment that you want to let teams at the level of the feature crew Scrum, cream squad, whatever your favorite term is, you want to let these small feature crews work autonomously on their stuff, and control what they are taking into the next sprint or what items they're doing next. You want them to support their stuff in production and you want the mechanisms to align their work up to the common business results, so that they know which needles they need to move by the work that they do and they know how to view those gauges. The fourth is shifting quality left and right so that you can get a signal in the pipeline of green meaning green and red meaning red, and in production, you can see continually what is happening with every changes, you expand its exposure. Fifth finally is using cloud to make infrastructure‑flexible resource. That's how I bucket it. I did one talk yesterday with my friend Ellen Smith about how we moved our DevOps' ass. It's really a story about eight years of taking what's started as a non‑premise product and turning it into a cloud service and on‑premise product. That was an attempt to myth‑bust the idea that if you're going to the cloud, you need to start in the cloud and throw everything away. It was an attempt to say, "Here's a proof instance where we had a business, pre‑cloud, with on‑prem product. We preserve that and made it better, and use the same codebase to go the cloud where the cloud is making the on‑prem better." Of course the cloud's the majority of usage and the fastest growing now, but it wasn't a throwaway, which of that story. The other one which is similar, which I'm doing tomorrow, is a talk about Windows' journey to DevOps. Windows division is the extreme case of scale and legacy, and they have successfully moved to DevOps. There were a bunch of bumps along the way. For example, to get Windows to be able to use Git at their scale, we needed to fix the Git, and that took three attempts. Bob:  Really? Sam:  Yes. When we started doing something like a Git clone of the main Windows repo, took 12 hours. That was if the network didn't burp, or your laptop didn't go to sleep, or nothing else wrong happened. If any of those things did happen, then the whole operation needed to start over. Bob:  Need to start again, yeah. Sam:  That now takes a couple minutes. We did a series of 300x or better improvements in Git performance with what is now open‑sourced as the virtual file system for Git. Windows motivated all of that to be able to support their scale of codebase, which was hundreds of times larger than anything else anyone was using. Bob:  That's interesting. I did not know that you guys were major contributors to the Git. Sam:  We're one of the top two. We're the largest open‑source contributor of any company, have been for about two years now. Git is a project where we have been very heavily in, and virtual file system is one of the latest aspects of that. Come to the talk tomorrow. Bob:  OK, I may. What time is it? Sam:  11:25, I think? 11 something. The times here are weird. All these weird five‑minute increments. Bob:  [laughs] . It is five‑minute increments and three hours off, because I'm an East Coast person. Are you out of... [crosstalk] Sam:  Along Seattle. Bob:  Thank you so much, Sam. This has been great. Is there any one thing you'd like to close off with that you're interested in? Sam:  Yeah. There's something that I'd like to make our listener aware of, and that is I curate a website. The short link to it is aka.ms/DevOps. It's, DevOps and Microsoft. What I try to do is to put up our experience reports there, not the high‑level marketing level stuff, but like, "How did you actually do the change in testing? How did you go to no downtime deployments? How did you start using service reliability engineering? Etc." There're about 50 articles up there, but half of them with good video. They're just stories about how we work. I love people to use that as a... Bob:  As a resource? Sam:  ...open resource. Bob:  Thank you very much. It was very nice meeting you and chatting. Sam:  Thanks a lot, Bob. Bob:  Thanks. The Agile Toolkit Podcast is brought to you by LightSpeed. Thanks for tuning in. I hope you enjoyed today's show. If you'd like to give feedback or be on the show, you can ping me on Twitter. I am @AgileToolkit. You can also reach me at Bob.Payne@lithespeed.com. For more free resources, transcripts to the show, and information about our services, head over to LightSpeed.com. Thanks for listening. [music]  

with Fred Wilson (@fredwilson) and Chris Dixon (@cdixon) There's all sorts of interesting tech trends happening right now, including AI, VR/AR, self-driving cars and drones (as well as interesting stuff happening in verticals like healthcare and finance) -- and there's a lot also happening in seemingly more "mature" tech revolutions, such as mobile and cloud. But where are we now, really, with these shifts... and how does that inform how we think about the next couple decades? And does a framework like Carlota Perez's -- as outlined in Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages and summarized by venture capitalist and longtime internet investor Fred Wilson (of Union Square Ventures) -- fully apply when it comes to software? Because, argues Chris Dixon (general partner on a16z crypto), software "has so much more plasticity, ability to adapt, ability to evolve" that unlike hardware, "the core itself will also dramatically change... not just the apps around it". The total economic value that will be unlocked with the software revolution, observes Wilson, should be orders of magnitude bigger than what we saw with manufacturing for sure. But just how much internet innovation is actually powering true disruption (i.e., is more than just a sustaining innovation, to use Clayton Christensen's terminology)? How do new business models change everything? Dixon and Wilson consider all this and more in this hallway-style episode of the a16z Podcast, where we recorded the two having a think-aloud conversation about everything from the history of the internet and startups, the evolution of capital and infrastructure, to the advent of crypto. How do they they both define "decentralized", what do they think of dApps, and where do NFTs and "crypto goods" come in?? One thing's for sure: It's the most interesting time they've both ever seen in over 30 years of internet work, life, and play. Please note that the a16z crypto fund is a separate legal entity managed by CNK Capital Management, L.L.C. (“CNK”), a registered investor advisor with the Securities and Exchange Commission. a16z crypto is legally independent and operationally separate from the Andreessen Horowitz family of fund and AH Capital Management, L.L.C. (“AHCM”).  In any case, the content provided here is for informational purposes only, and does NOT constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase any investment solution or a recommendation to buy or sell a security; nor it is to be taken as legal, business, investment, or tax advice. In fact, none of the information in this or other content on a16zcrypto.com should be relied on in any manner as advice. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax and other related matters concerning any investment.

Meltem Demirors of Athena Capital and recently of Digital Currency Group explains how the crypto world is creating artificial scarcity and how investors can uncover the true scarcity (or lack thereof). She describes why many projects have not yet able to create natural demand and how the downturn has affected many of their balance sheets. She also talks about how she's looking for investments and businesses that aren't necessarily sexy but will make money in both bull and bear markets -- and reveals what types of businesses fit that description. Some recent writing and presentations in which Meltem elaborated on these thoughts: https://medium.com/@Melt_Dem/drowning-in-tokens-184ccfa1641a https://www.slideshare.net/DCGCo/playing-the-game-the-nature-of-competition-among-blockchain-networks The Carlota Perez book we mention: https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/technological-revolutions-and-financial-capital OnChainFX: https://onchainfx.com/  Thank you to our sponsors! Quantstamp: https://quantstamp.com/ Onramp: http://thinkonramp.com/

There’s not a big third-party in the middle taking thirty, fifty, or whatever percent of the cut on the way, it’s just directly from one individual to another individual. In this episode of Made You Think we mixed it up by bringing in two guests: Taylor Pearson and Adil Majid, to ask them all of our burning questions about cryptocurrency. Neil came into the episode completely fresh and asked them everything he could think of, so if you’re new to bitcoin, ethereum, and cryptocurrency, or have a basic understanding but want to learn more, this is the crash course you’ve been looking for. We cover a wide range of topics, including: The history and the creation of cryptocurrencies Cryptocurrencies pros, cons, and uses Various types and forms of cryptocurrencies The major benefits of cryptocurrencies usage Long and short-term price speculations Reliable sources of cryptocurrency news and information And much more. Please enjoy, and be sure check out Taylor and Adil online! If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to also listen to our launch episodes on Antifragile by Nassim Taleb to learn how to profit from chaos, and on The Sovereign Individual, to better prepare yourself for the cyber-economic future. Mentioned in the show: Spire [1:28] Cypher Punks [13:37] E-Gold [13:57] Dropbox [17:22] Filecoin [17:38] Source Wifi [17:42] Uber [19:21] Nick Szabo’s Blog - Unenumerated [23:19] Steem Crypto-Reddit [38:54] Made You Think: The Sovereign Individual [48:35] Coinbase [50:05] JP Morgan [54:11] JP Morgan trading Bitcoin after fraud claim [54:11] The Silk Road marketplace [1:10:00] Bitcoin forums [1:11:05] Ethereum [1:15:30] The DAO [1:18:45] (the DAO hack) Alibaba [1:23:14] Inneo [1:23:23] Belaji’s article on quantifying decentralization [1:24:20] Bitcoin Whitepaper [1:29:10] Vitalik Buterin’s blog [1:30:56] Social Scalability article [1:35:55] Nick Szabo’s Tim Ferriss Podcast episode [1:36:43] Cryptocurrency on Medium [1:37:03] Books mentioned: The Dictator’s Handbook [4:18] The Master Switch [4:46] Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital [57:37] Digital Gold [1:08:11] The Sovereign Individual [1:30:22] (Made You Think episode) (Nat’s Notes) The Internet of Money [1:34:59] People mentioned: Taylor Pearson [0:49] (Twitter) Adil Majid [1:21] (Twitter) Tim Wu [4:46] Satoshi Nakamoto [11:19] Nick Szabo [14:02] Kevin Kelly [34:05] Gandhi [51:38] Jamie Dimon [54:11] Carlota Perez [57:37] Ari Paul [1:07:47] Chris Burniske [1:07:47] Balaji Srinivasan [1:07:47] Barry Silbert [1:07:47]    Vitalik Buterin [1:07:47] Laura Shin [1:07:47] Elizabeth Stark [1:07:47] Fred Wilson [1:07:47] Naval Ravikant [1:07:47] Hal Finney [1:12:13] Bruce Mesquita [1:34:47] Andreas Antonopoulos [1:35:09] Nassim Nicholas Taleb [1:36:20] (Antifragile Made You Think episode) Tim Ferriss [1:36:43] Useful resources: Taylor’s articles on cryptocurrency (here and here) Nat’s articles on cryptocurrency (here and here) 0:00 - Intro to the show and some information on what the episode will be about. 0:49 - Taylor Pearson and Adil Majid’s introductions and how they both got into cryptocurrency. 5:32 - Some of the ways that cryptocurrency is useful due to it being decentralized and free from governmental control. 8:45 - The two types of cryptocurrencies: currencies and tokens, and some key differences between them. 10:13 - What makes cryptocurrencies able to be decentralized and free from governmental control. Also, why people can’t create more bitcoins, info on the blockchain, and info on mining cryptocurrencies. 13:15 - Cryptocurrency creation attempts that came before the creation of Bitcoin. 14:26 - Who is creating cryptocurrencies, how they are created, and how they attain value. 16:23 - Some more information on tokens and some examples of these tokens. 18:11 - Why we would want to use tokens for transactions instead of traditional currency. 23:00 - What the customized contract aspect of cryptocurrencies is and how it is much more beneficial to all parties involved compared to traditional contracts or transactions. 30:59 - The international commerce aspect of cryptocurrencies and the huge impact they can have on minimizing transactional fees. 35:21 - How cryptocurrency is possibly going to affect tech and non-banking companies in the future. 39:18 - The potential of decentralized autonomous organizations in the future and huge impacts these can have on our daily lives. 41:20 - The difference between protocols and applications in cryptocurrencies. 44:49 - Some things that are holding cryptocurrencies back right now. 48:32 - Cryptocurrency regulation and the issue with governmental opposition to cryptocurrencies. 50:39 - Exchanges facing opposition, crypto being free of regulations, and some thoughts on governmental intervention. 54:11 - An example of large companies manipulating the price of cryptocurrencies and how the market cap increasing may help stabilize the currencies. 59:14 - Thoughts on the fluctuations of cryptocurrencies and whether or not it’s going to be valuable long-term or short-term. 1:03:15 - What’s been going on with the Chinese regulations and how that may play out with the different coins in the future. 1:05:45 - Some excellent sources of cryptocurrency information and news, and what types of sources to avoid. 1:08:05 - The backstory of Bitcoin and its creation. Also, some speculations on who the creator actually was. 1:16:10 - The creation of Ethereum, who the creator is, some benefits it has over Bitcoin, and the DAO hack. 1:22:01 - The Bitcoin fork, where Bitcoin split into Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash, and the differences between them. 1:23:29 - Quantifying the decentralization of these various cryptocurrencies. 1:26:28 - The energy arbitrage with Bitcoin, the possible environmental impacts, and Bitcoin mining. 1:30:08 - What you should check out after this episode to learn more about cryptocurrency. 1:32:58 - Where to go to learn more about the application aspect of crypto rather than the currency aspect. 1:38:40 - Wrap-up and where to find Taylor and Adil online. If you enjoyed this episode, don’t forget to subscribe at https://madeyouthinkpodcast.com Part of what makes it so complex is also part of what makes it so interesting. There’s political philosophy, geopolitics, no regulations, network effects, incentivizing people to participate in a network, a kind of economics, and then, there’s the technical standpoint involved.

In this episode, Arlan catches us up on her recent European travel adventures and shares an impromptu interview recorded in the lush hills of France with distinguished Venezuelan scholar, Carlota Perez. Full show notes: http://backstagecapital.com/podcast/8-lets-get-political/ Sponsor: Apps Without Code makes it easy for anyone to build a tech startup. Their 8-week Bootcamp teaches industry-leading tactics that allow entrepreneurs to build their own apps without writing any code. Market, validate, and grow your online businesses. Learn more at http://backstage.appswithoutcode.com. Credits: Host + Executive Producer: Arlan Hamilton Editor + Producer: Bryan Landers Interview Recorded by: Anna Eichenauer Music by: Janine Additional Music by: Torrie Vogt, DeKobe (1, 2, 3, 4)

Politics fractures when policy fails - as events of the last year have shown. Nine years on from the global financial crisis, policymakers are still struggling to find convincing answers to the economic problems it exposed. At the same time, the world faces many significant and complex challenges, from climate change to the problems of managing chronic health conditions, to the challenges of ageing populations, to meeting the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. If innovation is part of the answer, how can public policy be used to steer it towards tackling these kinds of global problems? This special event marks the launch of a new collaboration between the RSA and UCL’s new Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose to develop mission-oriented innovation policy in practice. Chaired by the RSA’s director of innovation Rowan Conway, the event will consist of provocations and conversation between IIPP's founder and director Mariana Mazzucato, Professor in the Economics of Innovation and Public Value, UCL (from 1 March, 2017); Jeffrey Sachs, Director of the Earth Institute and Quetelet Professor of Sustainable Development, Columbia University; and Carlota Perez, Professor of Technology and Development, London School of Economics. Reflecting on lessons from previous attempts at mission-oriented policies, our panel will consider: why leaving innovation to the market is not enough; the role of public policy in setting directions for growth; opportunities to use mission-oriented innovation to tackle 'green' growth; and how mission-oriented policies can be the practical means for meeting the Sustainable Development Goals.

Tech utopia or tech dystopia? Carlota Perez of the London School of Economics talks to John Thornhill about the radical changes she believes are needed if we are to harness the benefits of the current technological revolution See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Every big technological shift (per Carlota Perez) brings with a structural shift too — an “institutional adjustment” in how companies innovated and build new products, according to Steve Blank and Evangelos Simoudis. Large organizations used to (and continue to) set up remote R&D labs in places like Silicon Valley. But now, those companies are also investing more energy and resources in setting up corporate venturing arms and/or “innovation outposts” in such startup ecosystems — especially as they believe that startup-driven innovation is one of the best ways to keep up with and address disruption in their industries. But… it's not enough to simply establish a presence in these places; how do you also “sense” and respond to the right opportunities? Are they in the right places? Does beginning with corporate venturing really work for such outposts? And finally, how can these orgs avoid just acting out “innovation theater”? Simoudis — who has also written about whether “the elephant can dance again” using the case of IBM and Watson/ AI — offers his views on how big companies can and should use the Valley (and other innovation clusters) in this episode of the a16z Podcast.