Podcasts about Transaction Publishers

Bright on Buddhism - Episode 107 - What are some Brahmanical perspectives on Buddhism from the Buddha's lifetime or thereabouts? What are the doctrinal roots of those perspectives? What is the historical relationship between Hinduism and Buddhism like?Resources: Cousins, L.S. (2010), "Buddhism", The Penguin Handbook of the World's Living Religions, Penguin, ISBN 978-0-14-195504-9; Flood, Gavin D. (1996), An Introduction to Hinduism, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 978-0-521-43878-0; Fuller, C. J. (2004), The Camphor Flame: Popular Hinduism and Society in India, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, ISBN 978-0-691-12048-5; Gethin, Rupert (2008), Sayings of the Buddha, Oxford University Press; Ghurye, Govind Sadashiv (1980), The Scheduled Tribes of India, Transaction Publishers, ISBN 978-1-4128-3885-6; Gombrich, Richard F. (1988), Theravāda Buddhism: A Social History from Ancient Benares to Modern Colombo, London: Routledge, ISBN 978-0-415-07585-5; Gombrich, Richard F. (1996), Theravāda Buddhism. A Social History from Ancient Benares to Modern Colombo, London: Routledge, ISBN 978-0-415-07585-5; Gombrich, Richard (1997). How Buddhism Began: The Conditioned Genesis of the Early Teachings. New Delhi: Munshiram Manoharlal Publishers. ISBN 81-215-0812-6.; Gomez, Luis O. (2013), Buddhism in India. In: Joseph Kitagawa, "The Religious Traditions of Asia: Religion, History, and Culture", Routledge, ISBN 978-1-136-87590-8; Halbfass, Wilhelm (1991), Tradition and Reflection, SUNY Press, ISBN 978-0-7914-0361-7; Hiltebeitel, Alf (2002), Hinduism. In: Joseph Kitagawa, "The Religious Traditions of Asia: Religion, History, and Culture", Routledge, ISBN 978-1-136-87597-7; Hiltebeitel, Alf (2007), Hinduism. In: Joseph Kitagawa, "The Religious Traditions of Asia: Religion, History, and Culture". Digital printing 2007, Routledge, ISBN 978-1-136-87590-8; Hopfe, Lewis M.; Jaini, Padmanabh S. (2001), Collected Paper on Buddhist Studies, Motilal Banarsidass, ISBN 978-81-208-1776-0; Johnson, W.J. (2009), A Dictionary of Hinduism, Oxford University Press, ISBN 978-0-19-861025-0; Jones, Constance; Ryan, James D. (2006), Encyclopedia of Hinduism, Infobase Publishing, ISBN 978-0-8160-7564-5; Larson, Gerald (1995), India's Agony Over Religion, SUNY Press, ISBN 978-0-7914-2411-7; Larson, Gerald James (2009), Hinduism. In: "World Religions in America: An Introduction", pp. 179-198, Westminster John Knox Press, ISBN 978-1-61164-047-2; Lockard, Craig A. (2007), Societies, Networks, and Transitions. Volume I: to 1500, Cengage Learning, ISBN 978-0-618-38612-3; Michaels, Axel (2004), Hinduism. Past and present, Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press; Nath, Vijay (2001), "From 'Brahmanism' to 'Hinduism': Negotiating the Myth of the Great Tradition", Social Scientist, 29 (3/4): 19–50, doi:10.2307/3518337, JSTOR 3518337; Queen, Christopher S.; King, Sallie B., eds. (1996). Engaged Buddhism: Buddhist Liberation Movements in Asia. State University of New York Press. ISBN 978-0-7914-2844-3.; Raju, P. T. (1992), The Philosophical Traditions of India, Delhi: Motilal Banarsidass Publishers; Robinson, Richard; Johnson, Willard; Thanissaro, Bhikkhu (Geoffrey DeGraff) (2005). Buddhist Religions: A Historical Introduction. Belmont, California: Wadsworth/Thomson Learning. ISBN 0-534-55858-5.; Samuel, Geoffrey (2010), The Origins of Yoga and Tantra. Indic Religions to the Thirteenth Century, Cambridge University Press; Shults, Brett (2014), "On the Buddha's Use of Some Brahmanical Motifs in Pali Texts", Journal of the Oxford Centre for Buddhist Studies, 6: 121–129.Do you have a question about Buddhism that you'd like us to discuss? Let us know by finding us on email or social media! https://linktr.ee/brightonbuddhismCredits:Nick Bright: Script, Cover Art, Music, Voice of Hearer, Co-HostProven Paradox: Editing, mixing and mastering, social media, Voice of Hermit, Co-Host

Show Notes zur Sendung 129 "Management-Moden" Für Kleidungsmoden gibt es drei Theorien[3]: die trickle-down theory:[4] untere soziale Klassen imitierten die Gebräuche der höheren was jene zwingt, sich laufend anders zu kleiden um Differenzierung unten/oben und damit die bestehende soziale Distanz aufrecht zu erhalten. die collective selection theory:[5] Auswahlmöglichkeiten werden durch Kosten oder Verfügbarkeit reduziert und gewähren wenigstens für einen absehbaren Zeitraum Stabilität. die marionette theory[6] erklärt Moden als das natürliche Ergebnis des Kapitalismus, als die Manipulation des Konsumenten durch Massenmedien, Werbung und Hersteller weil alle Teilnehmer von immer neuen Modewellen profitieren. Moden funktioniert also so lange, wie alle Teilnehmenden einer in-group davon Nutzen haben. Die Aufmerksamkeit der Arena wandert weiter, sobald eine nächste Methode noch mehr Differenzierung, Effizienz oder Zeitgeist verspricht.   3 Schnierer, Thomas. 1995. Modewandel und Gesellschaft: die Dynamik von „in“ und „out“. Opladen: Leske + Budrich. 4 McCracken, Grant. 1985. „The Trickle-Down-Theory Rehabilitated“. In The Psychology of fashion, 39–54. The Advances in retailing series. Lexington, Mass: Lexington Books. 5 Blumer, 1969 - auf S. 283 wird Zeitgeist erwähnt, Blumer war deutschstämmig und lehrte in Berkeley. Eine Kernaussage ist ‘fashion performs in a moving society a function which custom performs in a settled society' (S. 289). Blumer, Herbert. 1969. „Fashion: From Class Differentiation to Collective Selection“. The Sociological Quarterly 10 (3): 275–91. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1533-8525.1969.tb01292.x. 6 Berger, Arthur Asa. 1992. Reading matter: multidisciplinary perspectives on material culture. New Brunswick, U.S.A: Transaction Publishers.   Seit mehr als dreissig Jahren ist ausgeforscht, welche Zutaten ein Management-Blockbuster braucht:[17]     Ein blinder Fleck und bislang ignorierter Umstand.     Sofortiges Handeln: eine drohende Krise ist so furchterregend, dass ohne Verzug gehandelt werden muss.     Geteilte Werte stehen auf dem Spiel, präsentiert als cleverer Mix aus Einfachheit und Mehrdeutigkeit[18]     Entdeckt in der Praxis von herausragenden Führungspersönlichkeiten, eine Prise Wissenschaft hilft der Glaubwürdigkeit.     Umsetzung nur mit Experten zügig möglich: wäre es einfach, könnte es jeder. Das Ansinnen muss einfach und verständlich formuliert sein. Kurze Sätze und keinesfalls akademischer Jargon. Der Autor kommt aus der Praxis und formuliert für seine peer group, verwendet aus Sitzungen und Seminaren vertraute Formate und Charts. Wesentlich: das Timing muss passen, der Nerv des Zeitgeist will getroffen werden.[19] Diese Eigenschaften decken sich mit den Bedürfnissen der Teilnehmer der Arena. 'Blinder Fleck' und 'sofortiges Handeln' erlauben emotionalisierten Alarmismus und lose Forderungen in die Weite des sozialen Diskursraumes. 'Geteilte Werte' koppeln und gestatten jedem Teilnehmenden Anschluss, Teilhabe, das Mitreden oder wenigstens das Signalisieren flüchtiger Zustimmung. 'Herkunft aus der Praxis' stiftet Vertrauen, die Referenz zu 'Studien' adelt den praktischen Handwerker. Die Nennung von 'Experten' wiederum öffnet die Tür für kommerzielle Dienstleistungen beliebiger Qualität. In der Manege freuen sich alle Teilnehmer: jede/r bekommt, was benötigt wird. 17 Abrahamson, Eric. 1996. „Management Fashion“. The Academy of Management Review 21 (1): 254. https://doi.org/10.2307/258636. siehe auch Eccles, Robert G., Nitin Nohria, und James D. Berkley. 1992. Beyond the hype: rediscovering the essence of management. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press. 18 Clark und Salaman, 1996 - zitiert nach Kieser, Alfred. 2020. „Kann man Managementprobleme im Prinzip so diagnostizieren und ‚heilen‘ wie die Probleme von Patienten? Zur Kritik des Evidenzbasierten Managements“. BFuP - Betriebswirtschaftliche Forschung und Praxis 2020 (06): 601–22. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/348834976_Kann_man_Managementprobleme_im_Prinzip_so_diagnostizieren_und_heilen_wie_die_Probleme_von_Patien-_ten_Zur_Kritik_des_Evidenzbasierten_Managements. 19 Roberts, Joanne. 2005. „The Ritzerization of Knowledge“. Critical Perspectives on International Business 1 (1): 56–63. https://doi.org/10.1108/17422040510577906. sowie Peters, Thomas J., und Robert H. Waterman. 1983:488. In Search of Excellence: Lessons from America's Best-Run Companies. London]: Profile Books.   kne:buster - ein Podcast-Satelliten-Experiment mit Stefan Knecht und Alex Jungwirth Expedition Arbeit, das heißt auch: Immer wieder Experimente, mal fast unmerkliche Veränderungen in der Community, mal gewagte Neuheiten, manchmal einfach das kreative Stochern im Nebel oder das lustvolle Ausprobieren dessen, was Spaß und Spannung verspricht.  Stochern, Spaß und Spannung, das wird es bis auf Weiteres donnerstags geben, im Kurz-Podcast-Gesprächs-Format  “kne:buster”. Der Titel enthält den Namen des Gastgebers, Stefan Knecht und die Funktion des “busting”, was irgendetwas zwischen “auf den Arm nehmen”, “Pleite gehen” und “sprengen” bedeutet. Im Kern geht es um die Aufdeckung von Mythen, einem Hobby, dem Stefan Knecht schon seit geraumer Zeit krawallfrei aber messerscharf und wissenschaftlich fundiert auf seiner Seite digitalien.org betreibt. Seit nun schon langer Zeit regelmäßig dabei ist ein weiterer “pragmatischer Skeptiker” namens Alexander Jungwirth. Alex ist den Hörerinnen und Hörern des Mitglieder Radios aus seiner Audio-Kolumne “Linzer Worte” bestens bekannt und fungiert im Duo Jungwirth & Knecht tendenziell als der Fragesteller an den Viel- und Intensiv-Leser Knecht.  Wer beim lustvollen Dekonstruieren lauschen will, ist herzlich eingeladen.     MITGLIED WERDEN Expedition Arbeit wünscht sich viele, neue Mitglieder: Denn dann können wir gemeinsam mehr bewirken, außerdem schaffen wir nur ab einer gewissen Größe die gewünschten Netzwerk- und Matching-Effekte. Vor allem aber glauben wir, dass wir nur mit ganz vielen auch ganz viel in Sachen sinnstiftender, selbstbestimmter und wirksamer Arbeit erreichen können.  Mitglied werden ist einfach. Kündigen übrigens auch. Weil es eben kein Abo ist, sondern eine Mitgliedschaft. Alles dazu findet Ihr auf unserer Website oder direkt auf der Crowdfunding-Plattform Steady: https://steadyhq.com/de/expeditionarbeit/about Kommt an Bord, seid dabei, lasst uns etwas bewegen!   ALLGEMEINE LINKS zu Expedition Arbeit Ideen, Anregungen und Kritisches an die Redaktion: florian@expedition-arbeit.de  Expedition Arbeit-Mitglied werden   Mitglied bei Expedition Arbeit werden   Du willst in der Community mitmachen? Dann melde dich bei Der öffentliche Expedition Arbeit-Newsletter   Unsere halböffentliche LinkedIn-Gruppe   Unsere öffentliche LinkedIn-Seite   Expedition Arbeit bei Twitter   Expedition Arbeit, Event-Kalender   Community Management und Host Community Radio: Florian Städtler bei LinkedIn   Redaktionsleitung: Wolfgang Pfeifer   Sprecherin Zwischenmoderationen: Stefanie Mrachacz   Schnitt und Mix: Yannik Mattes   Die Musik und SFX (Sound-Effekte) in allen Sendungen stammen von der Plattform bzw. von Florian Städtler      

Was there Mental Illness in the ancient world? What did people think about Suicide or Schizophrenia? How did the philosophies of Epicurus or Hippocrates help? And what can this teach us about Mental Illness today? Michael Fontaine, Professor and Associate Vice Provost of Undergraduate Education, The Department of Classics, Cornell University, New York treats us to a new perspective on the extremes of the human condition. For more information about Classical Wisdom's Podcast Classical Wisdom Speaks, please check out our website at: http://classicalwisdom.comInterested in learning more? Get a FREE E-book on "Money, Gold and the End of an Empire" Here: https://classicalwisdom.com/free-e-book-money-gold-endofanempire/Get our Latest Magazine - dedicated to Statesmen - with our Classical Wisdom Litterae Magazine subscription Here: https://classicalwisdom.com/product/classical-wisdom-litterae-magazine-subscription/Here are some links to references mentioned on the podcast:1. The paper Michael gave at the American Psychiatric Association about Thomas Szasz and Epicurus (on mental illness): https://www.madinamerica.com/2014/08/religious-psychiatric-atheism-success-epicurus-failure-thomas-szasz/2. A long review essay on “Mental Disorders in the Classical World.” (It’s all about classics, and a good overview to how Michael approaches mental illness): https://www.madinamerica.com/2015/10/mental-disorders-in-the-classical-world-a-book-review/3. 2013. ‘On Being Sane in an Insane Place—The Rosenhan Experiment in the Laboratory of Plautus’ Epidamnus,’ Current Psychology 32, 348-365. – This paper is about Plautus’ Menaechmi (the twins separated at birth).4. 2017. ‘Schizophrenia, then and now: The Libation Bearers of Aeschylus,’ in J.A. Schaler, H.Z. Lothane, and R.E. Vatz, eds., Thomas S. Szasz: The Man and his Ideas. Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick, New Jersey, pp. 169-193. – This was summarized in the podcast.5. The world's first Lobotomy: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/ancient-insights/202002/did-psychosurgery-start-out-joke6. You can get Michael's latest books, How to Drink: A Classical Guide to the Art of Imbibing here: https://tinyurl.com/y6stsjjkas well as The Pig War: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1732475075***Update from Michael: Also, since we did our podcast, a bombshell of a book came out that casts doubt on some of what I say about the modern experiment in article #3 down below. You can read my review of it in Psychology Today here: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/ancient-insights/201911/the-big-lie-psychiatry***The interview initially took place in August 2019.

"Historians have had to learn to explore their own subjectivity in dealing with the past. They can only see what they are prepared to see and they have frequently blocked out, scotomized, what they really don’t want to see. This is part of the current struggle in the history profession"   Description: Dr. Harvey Schwartz welcomes Dr. Peter Loewenberg, who is a retired professor of History and Political Psychology at UCLA where he received numerous awards including from the Guggenheim, Rockefeller and Fulbright Foundations. He is a training and supervising analyst and former Dean of the New Center for Psychoanalysis in Los Angeles. He chaired the committee that passed the California Research Psychoanalysis Law in 1977, enabling academics to be trained in and practice psychoanalysis. He Chaired the IPA China Committee, and he served on the IPA Board representing North America. He is the author of many publications, including Decoding the Past: The Psychohistorical Approach and Fantasy and Reality in History. He is Editor of 100 Years of the IPA.   In today’s episode, Dr. Loewenberg shares his passion for the academic and psychoanalytic worlds and his ability to relate these two fields to each other. As a historian, Dr. Loewenberg informs psychoanalysis and underlines how vital it is to appreciate and listen for the past, and he brings from psychoanalysis to history the importance of listening to oneself in observing the present and the past.   Key takeaways: [5:44] Dr. Loewenberg shares how psychoanalysis and history can understand the methods of each other to the advantage of both, and how this informed his discovery and immersion in Psychohistory. [7:03] Dr. Loewenberg talks about how historians took the contributions of psychoanalysis to history. [9:45] Trauma experienced by a psychoanalyst influences his practice, giving a three dimensional perspective to his understanding of his patient’s trauma. [11:12] Dr. Loewenberg talks about psychohistory and how the past impacts the present in meaningful ways. [13:06] How the Deutsche Mark became one of the strongest currencies in Europe. [16:24] Dr. Loewenberg shares his beginnings as a psychoanalyst. [21:59] Dr. Loewenberg talks about how the first cases were like for him. [27:38] The appreciation of the exchanges between analyst and analysand. [29:10] Historians’ appreciation for the past is often very subjective. [31:10] Dr. Loewenberg shares how life is now for him and his family during the pandemic.   Mentioned in this episode: IPA Off the Couch www.ipaoffthecouch.org   Recommended Readings: 100 Years of the IPA: The Centenary History of the International Psychoanalytical Association 1910 - 2010: Evolution and Change Ed. and introduced (with Nellie L. Thompson); (London: International Psychoanalytical Association, 2011).   Decoding the Past: The Psychohistorical Approach (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1983); (Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1985); (New Brunswick, N.J.: Transaction Publishers, 1996, paperback edition with a new introduction,).   Fantasy and Reality in History (New York: Oxford University Press, 1995).   Walther Rathenau and Henry Kissinger: The Jew as Modern Statesman in Two Political Cultures (New York: Leo Baeck Institute, 1980).   "The Psychohistorical Origins of the Nazi Youth Cohort," American Historical Review 76: 5 (December 1971), 1457-1502.   "The Unsuccessful Adolescence of Heinrich Himmler," American Historical Review 76- 3 (June 1971), pp. 612-641.  

Why Little England? Since my first publication in 2000, human behaviour has always remained my focus because I am intrigued and fascinated by the same. Therefore, as an Author, Cultural Practitioner, Media Arts Specialist, and Publisher who spent more than thirty years studying and practicing Media Arts, I have now decided to have a conversation titled Why Little England? is conversation and a textual analysis written from the perspective of someone who has a passion and a greater appreciation for education and research, who bring; a professional position.Narrated by William Anderson Gittens Author, Dip., Com., Arts. B.A. Media Arts Specialists’ Cinematographer, Cultural Practitioner, PublisherWorks Cited https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CivilizationAdams, Robert McCormick (1966). The Evolution of Urban Society. Transaction Publishers. p. 13. ISBN 9780202365947. Wright, Ronald (2004). A Short History of Progress. House of Anansi. pp. 115, 117, and 212. ISBN 9780887847066. Llobera, Josep (2003). An Invitation to Anthropology. Berghahn Books. pp. 136–137. ISBN 9781571815972. Bolesti, Maria (2013). Barbarism and Its Discontents. Stanford University Press. ISBN 9780804785372.Wei, Ruan (2011). "Civilization and Culture" (PDF). Globality Studies Journal (24).https://www.encyclopedia.com/places/latin-america-and-caribbean/caribbean-political-geography/barbadoshttp://www.dartmouth.edu/~film01/mise.htmlhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbados–United_Kingdom_relationshttps://www.jstor.org/stable/1846260?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contentshttps://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/21/great-britain-little-england-europe-eu-lib-dem-winhttps://www.encyclopedia.com/places/latin-america-and-caribbean/caribbean-political-geography/barbadoshttps://books.google.com/books Julian Armfield Absolutely Barbados ISBN 978-976-95741-1-1 eISBN978-976-95741-2-0http://www.qrg.northwestern.edu/projects/vss/docs/propulsion/2-every-action-has-an-equal-and-opposite.htmliMovie audio Jaracanda Written by William Anderson Gittens and Produced Devgro Media Arts ServicesSupport the show (http://www.buzzsprout.com/429292)

Anne R. Pierce is an author, commentator and scholar in the areas of American Presidents, American Foreign Policy and American Society. Her foreign policy work emphasizes both national security and global stability, and human rights and political freedom. With a Ph.D. from the University of Chicago, she is an appointed member of Princeton University's James Madison Society and a Political Science Field Editor for Transaction Publishers. Pierce has written three books, and contributed to three others. Her articles have been published in in USA Today, The Washington Times, Society, Washington Examiner, USEmbassy.gov, Ricochet.com, World and I and elsewhere. WEBSITE: annerpierce.com TWITTER: @AnneRPierce

Donald Holbrook is a Visiting Fellow at ICCT. He became a lecturer at the Department of Politics, Philosophy, and Religion at Lancaster University, UK, in September 2016. Prior to that he was Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, University of St Andrews, which he joined in 2008. His research has focused mostly on beliefs, ideas, and media in the context of terrorism and political violence, especially on how terrorists interact with published media and social media and how this engagement has changed over time. He has published on a wide variety of topics relating to these themes, including a book, edited volumes, journal articles, as well as reports and other deliverables for counterterrorism practitioners and policymakers. He currently manages a large-scale research project dissecting ways in which individuals involved in terrorism use different types of media, developing case studies and thematic analyses of different ideological milieus (including far-right and Islamist extremism), different types of activity (including domestic terrorism and ‘foreign fighters’) and different organisational contexts (such as groups versus lone actors), as well as comparisons across sections. Research that has influenced Donald: Benford, R & Snow, D. (2000) ‘Framing Processes and Social Movements: An Overview and Assessment’ in Annual Review of Sociology (Vol. 26., pp. 611-639) à or indeed other material from them on collective action frames Max Taylor & John Horgan (2006) ‘A Conceptual Framework for Addressing Psychological Process in the Development of the Terrorist’ Terrorism and Political Violence (18: 4). Political Terrorism: A New Guide To Actors, Authors, Concepts, Data Bases, Theories, And Literature, Alex P. Schmid, Albert J. Jongman. 1988, Transaction Publishers à or other Schmid work on the essence of terrorism Donald's Key Work: The Al-Qaeda Doctrine: The Framing and Evolution of the Leadership’s Public Discourse (Bloomsbury, 2014) & Al-Qaeda 2.0: A Critical Reader (Hurst, 2017) I’d take these together as one is essentially a supplement to the other. ‘What Types of Media Do Terrorists Collect? An Analysis of Religious, Political, and Ideological Publications Found in Terrorism Investigations in the UK’, ICCT (September 2017) ‘Designing and Applying an ‘Extremist Media Index’, Perspectives on Terrorism (9:5, 2015)

Gudrun hat sich mit Oliver Beige unterhalten. Im Gespräch geht es um die theoretische Seite von Modellen für Wahlprognosen. Dabei beziehen sie sich in vielen Beispielen auf den Wahlkampf in den USA und insbesondere auf die Besonderheiten der Kampagne von Donald Trump. Die Gelegenheit bot sich vor einem gemeinsamen Konzertbesuch in Berlin-Neukölln in der Alten Welt Siralti. In der Theorie sind Wahlprognosemodell traditionell in der Politologie verankert, wurden aber immer mehr durch ökonomische Modelle verbessert. Die größte Veränderung der letzten Jahre ist, dass es immer mehr empirische Daten gibt, die auch zum Teil der Öffentlichkeit zur Verfügung stehen. Solche Daten und Diskussionen zur Wertung finden sich z.B. auf der Webseite FiveThirtyEight. Große Berühmtheit erreichte schließlich Nate Silver dadurch, dass er 2008 in 49 von 50 US-Bundeststaaten das Ergebnis der US-Präsidentschaftswahlen korrekt vorhergesagt hatte. Im Wahljahr 2012 stimmte seine Vorhersage sogar in allen 50 Staaten. Seine Ergebnisse erzielte er dabei lediglich durch Aggregation von veröffentlichten Umfrageergebnissen. Im Wahljahr 2016 hat aber Donald Trump die Wahl gewonnen obwohl Nate Silvers Modelle (und die Modelle ähnlich arbeitender Wahlforscher) die Wahrscheinlichkeit dafür, dass Hillary Clinton die Präsidentschaftswahl für sich entschieden wird, auf 70% - 99% beziffert hatten. Es stellt sich die Frage, wo der Fehler dieser Prognosemodelle lag. Wenn man im Jahr 2016 genau zuhörte, gab es auch Stimmen, die Donald Trump schon im Frühjahr als wahrscheinlichen Gewinner der Wahlen sahen - z.B. die Zeitung Los Angeles Times. Sie wurden in den Medien zwar lieber als Ausreißer dargestellt, behielten aber schließlich recht. Wieso? Sie hatten den Demographiewandel in den USA in ihre Modellbildung einbezogen. Um zu verstehen, was damit gemeint ist, muss man zunächst einmal klarer beschreiben, wie US-Wahlen traditionell bisher abliefen, und welche Modelle daraus abgeleitet wurden. Es gibt ein schönes Denkmodell, das veranschaulicht, wie das sogenannte Hotelling Gesetz (1929) wirkt. Man stelle sich zwei Eisverkäufer am Strand vor. Wie sollten sie jeweils ihren Stand so positionieren, dass sie möglichst viele Kunden anziehen? Die stille Annahme dabei ist, dass die Badenden gleichmäßig über den Strand verteilt sind und alle irgendwann Lust auf ein (genau ein) Eis bekommen. Das verblüffende Ergebnis ist: Ein Equilibrium der Einflussbereiche der beiden Verkäufer stellt sich ein, wenn beide in der Mitte des Strandes nebeneinander stehen. Im Wahlkampf in den USA folgt man dieser Strategie, indem beide endgültigen Präsidentschaftskandidaten wenig ideologisch unterscheidbar aufgebaut werden. Begünstigt wird das auch durch das mehrstufige Wahlsystem, denn die Vorwahlen (Primaries) kann man dazu nutzen, dass die extremeren Kandidaten herausgefiltert werden. Dann entscheidet über den Sieg schließlich vor allem die erfolgreiche Mobilisierung der Wechselwähler. Eine (stillschweigende) Voraussetzungen dafür, dass von der Ähnlichkeit der Positionen der eigene Kandidat profitiert ist, dass die Wahlbeteiligung hoch ist. Das ist in den USA leider immer weniger der Fall. Dass die Wahlen 2016 anders verliefen als gewohnt, zeigte sich, als bei den Republikanern die Establishmentkandidaten keine Chance gegen den idologisch extremen Trump hatten. Bei den Demokraten konnte jedoch die moderatere Hillary Clinton den ideologisch positionierten Bernie Sanders ruhig stellen. Das bricht mit den bisher gültigen Annahmen der Wahlvorhersagemodelle: Hotellings Model funktioniert nicht mehr. Aber nur weniger der Modelle erkennen die veränderte Situation und reagieren mit neuen Prognosemodellen. Trump hatte dann schließlich auch Erfolg mit seiner Strategie, die Clinton-Wählerschaft zu entmutigen überhaupt zur Wahl zu gehen und die eigene - eigentlich kleine - Clientel extrem zu mobilisieren. Den Trend zur Radikalisierung der Republikaner beobachtet man tatsächlich schon eine Weile. Er setzte etwa mit der Wahl von Reagan ein. Es gab die inzwischen sprichwörtlichen "27%" -- Wähler, die auch einen völlig unqualifizierten rechtsgerichteten Kandidaten wählen. Der sprichwörtliche Name wurde erfunden, nachdem bei der Senatswahl in Illinois ein erkennbar aussichtsloser Kandidat gegen den damals unbekannten Obama 27% der Stimmen erhielt. Diese Zahl ist seitdem eher gestiegen. Für Wahlprognosen braucht es also Modelle, die dieses bekannte menschliche Verhalten besser berücksichtigen. Keith T. Poole und Howard Rosenthal sammeln alle Stimmen im amerikanischen Kongress - das sind ja einfache Ja/Nein Entscheidungen - und analysieren sie fortlaufend. Ihre Methoden lieferten Politikwissenschaftlern erstmals rigorose quantitative Methodiken für Ideologiehörigkeit von Entscheidern über die Zeit der Existenz der USA hinweg. Man nennt dies die Nominal Three-Step Estimation. Literatur und weiterführende Informationen Eisverkäufer Modell K.T. Poole, H. Rosenthal: A Spatial Model for Legislative Roll Call Analysis GSIA Working Paper No. 5–83–84, 1983. K.T. Poole, H. Rosenthal: Congress: A Political-Economic History of Roll Call Voting. New York: Oxford University Press, 1997. K.T. Poole, H. Rosenthal: Congress: Ideology and Congress New Brunswick, Transaction Publishers, 2007. NOMINATE and American Political History: A Primer. W-NOMINATE in R: Software and Examples H. Hotelling: Stability in Competition Economic Journal 39: 41–57, 1929. Voteview, the online voting data repository started by Poole & Rosenthal. Poll-Aggregatoren erklären, warum sie danebenlagen.

This week my Flatmates has been taking it easy, it's creepy... She has made some Kool-Aid though, would you like some? Cast: Host: Alannah Mear. Flatmate: Abby Loader. Neighbourhood Woman: Rebecca Barlow. Jim Jones: AJ Johnstone. This weeks sources: Hall, John R. (1987). Gone from the Promised Land. Transaction Publishers.ISBN 978-0-88738-801-9. Jonestown Audiotape Primary Project". Alternative Considerations of Jonestown and Peoples Temple. San Diego State University. Kilduff, Marshall and Phil Tracy. "Inside Peoples Temple". Alternative Considerations of Jonestown and Peoples Temple. Jonestown Project: San Diego State University. August 1, 1977. Levi, Ken (1982). Violence and Religious Commitment: Implications of Jim Jones's People's Temple Movement. Penn State University Press. ISBN 978-0-271-00296-5. Reiterman, Tom; Jacobs, John (1982). Raven: The Untold Story of Rev. Jim Jones and His People. E. P. Dutton. ISBN 978-0-525-24136-2. http://jonestown.sdsu.edu/?page_id=29478 http://jonestown.sdsu.edu/?page_id=33190 https://www.britannica.com/biography/Jim-Jones Logo design: Alexandria Ridley. Music: 'Creepy Comedy' - Music by Jay Man - OurMusicBox www.youtube.com/c/ourmusicbox ourmusicbox.com/ 'Enigmatic' by bensound. www.bensound.com 'Morning Mood' by Edvard Grieg.Levi, Ken (1982). Violence and Religious Commitment: Implications of Jim Jones's People's Temple Movement. Penn State University Press. ISBN 978-0-271-00296-5.

“What exactly is liberalism?” The independent scholar Edwin van de Haar tackles this important question in his new book Degrees of Freedom: Liberal Political Philosophy and Ideology (Transaction Publishers, 2015). Setting the record straight, van de Haar explains how the history of liberalism should be viewed as an ongoing struggle for individual freedom. The importance that liberals place on freedom helps explain why they tend to create dynamic political/economic orders that change the status quo in ways not predetermined by centralized plans or ideological blueprints. To help readers better understand the diversity and boundaries of liberalism, van de Haar divides liberal thought into three main variants–Classical, Social, and Libertarianism. Unlike previous works on liberalism, he devotes considerable attention to how each of these variants tends to conceive of international affairs and defines the optimal global order. He also explains how liberal thought differs from conservatism and the mistakes authors almost always make when they use the term “neoliberal” to critique global capitalism. While readers may not agree with all of van de Haar’s arguments, they will benefit from grappling with Degrees of Freedom. Employing cogent prose and an easy-to-follow framework, he explains why liberal thought remains an important and relevant subject for all citizens of the world. Taking on some of liberalism’s fiercest critics, van de Haar also reminds readers that liberal thought can still serve as a blueprint for creating societies consistent with the goals of freedom, justice, equality, and personal fulfilment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

“What exactly is liberalism?” The independent scholar Edwin van de Haar tackles this important question in his new book Degrees of Freedom: Liberal Political Philosophy and Ideology (Transaction Publishers, 2015). Setting the record straight, van de Haar explains how the history of liberalism should be viewed as an ongoing struggle for individual freedom. The importance that liberals place on freedom helps explain why they tend to create dynamic political/economic orders that change the status quo in ways not predetermined by centralized plans or ideological blueprints. To help readers better understand the diversity and boundaries of liberalism, van de Haar divides liberal thought into three main variants–Classical, Social, and Libertarianism. Unlike previous works on liberalism, he devotes considerable attention to how each of these variants tends to conceive of international affairs and defines the optimal global order. He also explains how liberal thought differs from conservatism and the mistakes authors almost always make when they use the term “neoliberal” to critique global capitalism. While readers may not agree with all of van de Haar’s arguments, they will benefit from grappling with Degrees of Freedom. Employing cogent prose and an easy-to-follow framework, he explains why liberal thought remains an important and relevant subject for all citizens of the world. Taking on some of liberalism’s fiercest critics, van de Haar also reminds readers that liberal thought can still serve as a blueprint for creating societies consistent with the goals of freedom, justice, equality, and personal fulfilment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

“What exactly is liberalism?” The independent scholar Edwin van de Haar tackles this important question in his new book Degrees of Freedom: Liberal Political Philosophy and Ideology (Transaction Publishers, 2015). Setting the record straight, van de Haar explains how the history of liberalism should be viewed as an ongoing struggle for individual freedom. The importance that liberals place on freedom helps explain why they tend to create dynamic political/economic orders that change the status quo in ways not predetermined by centralized plans or ideological blueprints. To help readers better understand the diversity and boundaries of liberalism, van de Haar divides liberal thought into three main variants–Classical, Social, and Libertarianism. Unlike previous works on liberalism, he devotes considerable attention to how each of these variants tends to conceive of international affairs and defines the optimal global order. He also explains how liberal thought differs from conservatism and the mistakes authors almost always make when they use the term “neoliberal” to critique global capitalism. While readers may not agree with all of van de Haar’s arguments, they will benefit from grappling with Degrees of Freedom. Employing cogent prose and an easy-to-follow framework, he explains why liberal thought remains an important and relevant subject for all citizens of the world. Taking on some of liberalism’s fiercest critics, van de Haar also reminds readers that liberal thought can still serve as a blueprint for creating societies consistent with the goals of freedom, justice, equality, and personal fulfilment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

“What exactly is liberalism?” The independent scholar Edwin van de Haar tackles this important question in his new book Degrees of Freedom: Liberal Political Philosophy and Ideology (Transaction Publishers, 2015). Setting the record straight, van de Haar explains how the history of liberalism should be viewed as an ongoing struggle for individual freedom. The importance that liberals place on freedom helps explain why they tend to create dynamic political/economic orders that change the status quo in ways not predetermined by centralized plans or ideological blueprints. To help readers better understand the diversity and boundaries of liberalism, van de Haar divides liberal thought into three main variants–Classical, Social, and Libertarianism. Unlike previous works on liberalism, he devotes considerable attention to how each of these variants tends to conceive of international affairs and defines the optimal global order. He also explains how liberal thought differs from conservatism and the mistakes authors almost always make when they use the term “neoliberal” to critique global capitalism. While readers may not agree with all of van de Haar’s arguments, they will benefit from grappling with Degrees of Freedom. Employing cogent prose and an easy-to-follow framework, he explains why liberal thought remains an important and relevant subject for all citizens of the world. Taking on some of liberalism’s fiercest critics, van de Haar also reminds readers that liberal thought can still serve as a blueprint for creating societies consistent with the goals of freedom, justice, equality, and personal fulfilment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Most of the authors I’ve interviewed for this show have addressed episodes in the past, campaigns of mass violence that occurred long ago, often well-before the author was born. Today’s show is different. In his book Genocide by Attrition: The Nuba Mountains of Sudan (Transaction Publishers, 2012), Samuel Totten addresses the violence against the people of the Nuba Mountains of the Sudan.  This violence was part of a broader civil war and unrest in the Sudan in the 1980s and 90s.  Totten makes a convincing case that, in the Nuba, it reached a level reasonably labeled genocidal.  To demonstrate this, Totten provides a succinct but thorough history of the conflict. But the heart of the book is a series of interviews with victims of the tragedy.  Totten collected the interviews himself and uses them to demonstrate the nature and consequences of the conflict. Our interview won’t stop with the book, however, for conflict has recently broken out again in the region.  Scholars differ about how to label the new violence (Totten himself prefers to avoid calling the new fighting genocidal).  But there’s no question many of the human tragedies of the 80s and 90s have reemerged.  Totten has written extensively about this new conflict.  We’ll use of one these articles, from the recent issue of Genocide Studies International, as the basis for our discussion of current events. Totten has been active in the field of genocide studies since its inception and brings an enormous wealth of information and passion to the subject.  I trust the interview will convey his commitment to his discipline and to the victims of the violence he studies. Also.  I talked with Sam this week and he tells me he’s just finished a major revision of the book we discussed in this interview, almost doubling its length.  The second edition will presumably be out soon. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Most of the authors I’ve interviewed for this show have addressed episodes in the past, campaigns of mass violence that occurred long ago, often well-before the author was born. Today’s show is different. In his book Genocide by Attrition: The Nuba Mountains of Sudan (Transaction Publishers, 2012), Samuel Totten addresses the violence against the people of the Nuba Mountains of the Sudan.  This violence was part of a broader civil war and unrest in the Sudan in the 1980s and 90s.  Totten makes a convincing case that, in the Nuba, it reached a level reasonably labeled genocidal.  To demonstrate this, Totten provides a succinct but thorough history of the conflict. But the heart of the book is a series of interviews with victims of the tragedy.  Totten collected the interviews himself and uses them to demonstrate the nature and consequences of the conflict. Our interview won’t stop with the book, however, for conflict has recently broken out again in the region.  Scholars differ about how to label the new violence (Totten himself prefers to avoid calling the new fighting genocidal).  But there’s no question many of the human tragedies of the 80s and 90s have reemerged.  Totten has written extensively about this new conflict.  We’ll use of one these articles, from the recent issue of Genocide Studies International, as the basis for our discussion of current events. Totten has been active in the field of genocide studies since its inception and brings an enormous wealth of information and passion to the subject.  I trust the interview will convey his commitment to his discipline and to the victims of the violence he studies. Also.  I talked with Sam this week and he tells me he’s just finished a major revision of the book we discussed in this interview, almost doubling its length.  The second edition will presumably be out soon. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Most of the authors I’ve interviewed for this show have addressed episodes in the past, campaigns of mass violence that occurred long ago, often well-before the author was born. Today’s show is different. In his book Genocide by Attrition: The Nuba Mountains of Sudan (Transaction Publishers, 2012), Samuel Totten addresses the violence against the people of the Nuba Mountains of the Sudan.  This violence was part of a broader civil war and unrest in the Sudan in the 1980s and 90s.  Totten makes a convincing case that, in the Nuba, it reached a level reasonably labeled genocidal.  To demonstrate this, Totten provides a succinct but thorough history of the conflict. But the heart of the book is a series of interviews with victims of the tragedy.  Totten collected the interviews himself and uses them to demonstrate the nature and consequences of the conflict. Our interview won’t stop with the book, however, for conflict has recently broken out again in the region.  Scholars differ about how to label the new violence (Totten himself prefers to avoid calling the new fighting genocidal).  But there’s no question many of the human tragedies of the 80s and 90s have reemerged.  Totten has written extensively about this new conflict.  We’ll use of one these articles, from the recent issue of Genocide Studies International, as the basis for our discussion of current events. Totten has been active in the field of genocide studies since its inception and brings an enormous wealth of information and passion to the subject.  I trust the interview will convey his commitment to his discipline and to the victims of the violence he studies. Also.  I talked with Sam this week and he tells me he’s just finished a major revision of the book we discussed in this interview, almost doubling its length.  The second edition will presumably be out soon. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Most of the authors I’ve interviewed for this show have addressed episodes in the past, campaigns of mass violence that occurred long ago, often well-before the author was born. Today’s show is different. In his book Genocide by Attrition: The Nuba Mountains of Sudan (Transaction Publishers, 2012), Samuel Totten addresses the violence against the people of the Nuba Mountains of the Sudan.  This violence was part of a broader civil war and unrest in the Sudan in the 1980s and 90s.  Totten makes a convincing case that, in the Nuba, it reached a level reasonably labeled genocidal.  To demonstrate this, Totten provides a succinct but thorough history of the conflict. But the heart of the book is a series of interviews with victims of the tragedy.  Totten collected the interviews himself and uses them to demonstrate the nature and consequences of the conflict. Our interview won’t stop with the book, however, for conflict has recently broken out again in the region.  Scholars differ about how to label the new violence (Totten himself prefers to avoid calling the new fighting genocidal).  But there’s no question many of the human tragedies of the 80s and 90s have reemerged.  Totten has written extensively about this new conflict.  We’ll use of one these articles, from the recent issue of Genocide Studies International, as the basis for our discussion of current events. Totten has been active in the field of genocide studies since its inception and brings an enormous wealth of information and passion to the subject.  I trust the interview will convey his commitment to his discipline and to the victims of the violence he studies. Also.  I talked with Sam this week and he tells me he’s just finished a major revision of the book we discussed in this interview, almost doubling its length.  The second edition will presumably be out soon. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

with Lerna Ekmekçioğluhosted by Chris GratienThe World War I period irrevocably changed the life of Ottoman Armenians and ultimately heralded the end of Christian communities throughout most of Anatolia. However, following the Ottoman defeat in the war, the brief Armistice period witnessed efforts by Armenians in Istanbul to reconstitute their community in the capital. In this episode, Lerna Ekmekçioğlu explores these efforts and in particular activities to locate and gather Armenian orphans and widows dislocated by war and genocide. Lerna Ekmekçioğlu is Assistant Professor of History at MIT. Her research focuses on the intersections of minority identity and gender in the modern Middle East. (see faculty page)Chris Gratien is a doctoral candidate at Georgetown University researching the social and environmental history of the Ottoman Empire and the modern Middle East. (see academia.edu)Episode No. 161Release date: 27 June 2014Location: Beyoğlu, IstanbulEditing and Production by Chris GratienBibliography courtesy of Lerna EkmekçioğluCitation: "Reconstituting the Stuff of the Nation: Armenians of Istanbul during the Armistice Period," Lerna Ekmekçioğlu and Chris Gratien, Ottoman History Podcast, No. 161 (27 June 2014) http://www.ottomanhistorypodcast.com/2014/06/armenian-widows-orphans-istanbul.html.SELECT BIBLIOGRAPHYLerna Ekmekcioglu, “A Climate for Abduction, A Climate for Redemption: The Politics of Inclusion during and after the Armenian Genocide.” Comparative Studies in Society and History 55, no. 3 (2013): 522–53.Uğur Ümit Üngör, “Orphans, Converts, and Prostitutes: Social Consequences of War and Persecution in the Ottoman Empire, 1914–1923,” War in History 19, 2 (2012): 173–92.Taner Akçam, The Young Turks’ Crime against Humanity: The Armenian Genocide and Ethnic Cleansing in the Ottoman Empire (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2012), 287–339.Victoria Rowe, “Armenian Women Refugees at the End of Empire: Strategies of Survival,” in Panikos Panayi and Pipa Virdee, eds., Refugees and the End of Empire: Imperial Collapse and Forced Migration in the Twentieth Century (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2011), 164.Keith David Watenpaugh, “The League of Nations’ Rescue of Armenian Genocide Survivors and the Making of Modern Humanitarianism, 1920–1927,” American Historical Review 115, 5 (2010): 1315–39, here 1315.Matthias Bjørnlund, “‘A Fate Worse than Dying:’ Sexual Violence during the Armenian Genocide,” in Dagmar Herzog, ed., Brutality and Desire: War and Sexuality in Europe’s Twentieth Century (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009), 16–58. Vahé Tachjian, “Gender, Nationalism, Exclusion: The Reintegration Process of Female Survivors of the Armenian Genocide,” Nations and Nationalism 15, 1 (2009): 60–80Vahé Tachjian, “Recovering Women and Children Enslaved by Palestinian Bedouins,” in Raymond Kévorkian and Vahé Tachjian, eds., The Armenian General Benevolent Union, One Hundred Years of History (Cairo: AGBU, 2006).Katharine Derderian, “Common Fate, Different Experience: Gender-Specific Aspects of the Armenian Genocide, 1915–1917,” Holocaust and Genocide Studies 19, 1 (May 2005): 1–25. Vahakn Dadrian, “Children as Victims of Genocide: The Armenian Case,” Journal of Genocide Research 5 (2003): 421–38. Vahram Shemmassian, “The League of Nations and the Reclamation of Armenian Genocide Survivors,” in Richard Hovannisian, ed., Looking Backward, Moving Forward: Confronting the Armenian Genocide (New Brunswick, N.J.: Transaction Publishers, 2003), 94.Ara Sarafian, “The Absorption of Armenian Women and Children into Muslim Households as a Structural Component of the Armenian Genocide,” in Omer Bartov and Phyllis Mack, eds., In God’s Name: Genocide and Religion in the Twentieth Century (New York: Berghahn Books, 2001), 209–21.Isabel Kaprielian-Churchill “Armenian Refugee Women: The Picture Brides 1920–1930,” Journal of American Ethnic History 12, 3 (1993): 3–29. Eliz Sanasarian, “Gender Distinction in the Genocidal Process: A Preliminary Study of the Armenian Case,” Holocaust and Genocide Studies 4, 4 (1989): 449–61.