Podcasts about lic ipo

Wishing You a Great 2023Others might begin the new year with resolutions, but we prefer excuses. Last year, we wrote only 42 editions. There was much to do in the remaining ten weeks. There was the Football World Cup, a few time-offs, a couple of vacations, and of course, a lapdog ate our laptops. If these honourable reasons weren't enough, we add another: we wrote a book!Our book Missing in Action: Why You Should Care About Public Policy will be published on 23 January 2023. Like this newsletter, it is a 'pop' public policy book in which we explain concepts through stories rooted in the Indian context. We couldn't have asked for a more helpful and encouraging team than our friends at Penguin India, who got us over the line and in time for a Republic Day release. The book is ready for pre-order now. You will have to excuse us for a bit of promotion that we will do over the next month or so on these pages. So what's the book about? At the heart of the book is our belief in the core objective of public policy. It should increase the welfare of the citizens. Like the verse from Bhagavad Gita goes:अनन्याश्चिन्तयन्तो मां ये जनाः पर्युपासते।तेषां नित्याभियुक्तानां योगक्षेमं वहाम्यहम्।।9.22।।That word - Yogakshema - to preserve the prosperity and welfare of citizens is what public policy should be about. We write this newsletter with the hope that it will, in its small way, move the needle on discourse. The book is a logical extension of this hope. Hope, as Andy Dufresne taught us, ‘is a good thing; maybe the best of things'. We are hopeful about the future of India, but not in a misguided nationalistic way. We believe we can make an impact, however small, on the demand side of the policy equation. That making people aware of policy choices and helping them anticipate the unintended will lead to a change in the supply side of politics. There are two preconditions for this to happen, which we assume hold true. One, people have time and mental space available for discussions that matter to their lives. Two, a belief we can arrive at what's good for us through those debates and discussions.In the book, we have taken the citizens as the point of reference and elaborated on their interactions with the state, the market and the society. Think of the book as a primer to understanding the fundamentals that underpin these interactions. We cover why we need a state or the markets, what is the role of society and how the three interplay among them. We go back to the foundational texts on political philosophy and economy in the book to explain the core concepts of public policy but in what we hope is an accessible fashion. We have tried to avoid jargon and approached all topics using first principles. Like the 16th century Bhakti poet, Nabha Dasa, who compiled the life of every saint from time immemorial in Bhaktamala, wrote:"Jaat na puchhie saadhu ki, poochh leejie gyan, mol karo kirpan ka, padi rahne do mian" ("Do not ask for the antecedents of a learned saint. Only seek their wisdom. The true worth is what's within us and not what you see from outside.")We have been ecumenical in our approach in this book.The other thing you might find interesting in the book is our focus on finding examples in the Indian context to illuminate a point or to make a case for our arguments. This will contextualise a lot of the discussions in the book to our immediate environment, and we hope it will make our reasoning clearer to our readers. Further, we have tried to keep ourselves free of dogma in the book. We have strong faith in markets, but we understand their limitations and the critical role of the state and society. We have been open to knowledge from all sources and have challenged our premises and priors before stating our point of view. Lastly, the tone of the book is conversational, and it is filled with some of our usual groan-inducing Bollywood references. Special thanks to all of you for reading us and engaging with us. Without your encouragement, we wouldn't have attempted a book. And now that we have said such good things go buy the book! Truth be told, we are a tad nervous about how the book will be received. We hope you will enjoy reading it and recommending it to others. Show it some love, friends and order it now. ThanksPranay & RSJIndia Policy Watch: How Did I Do On My Predictions For 2022?— RSJ Each year I start with a prediction post. But before I get down to my predictions for 2023 (which I will in the next edition), there's the unfinished business of how I fared on the predictions that I made in 2022. So, here's a look back at the year through the lens of my predictions at the start of the year.Economy - Prediction #1 This is what I wrote:“we will be in the 5-5.5 per cent growth range (if you take the base of FY 21). Inflation (CPI) will be around 5 per cent with an occasional jump to 6 per cent during the year despite threatening to go out of control. Maybe three interest rate hikes (a total of 75 bps) during the year will keep a lid on it. Public markets will moderate a bit (around 10 percent upside).... China won't attract it (foreign capital) as it will continue to go down the path of self-reliance and its notion of an equal society.”Result: No one could see the Ukraine war coming back when I made the predictions. Notwithstanding that, I think I got the growth and the inflation prediction in the ballpark. The war threw the interest hike prediction off totally. Instead of a 75 bps hike over the year, we got a 225 bps increase. I think, on balance, the Indian economy did quite well in 2022, given the headwinds. Domestic consumption was strong; we weathered the peaking of oil and commodity rates quite well, the twin balance sheet problem is now behind us, and by the end of the year, we saw private Capex growing. Not a bad state of affairs. I would have taken this happily at the start of the year. Overall, I'd give a 6/10 on this prediction.Economy - Prediction #2“There won't be much to write about reforms. Some attempts at piecemeal MSP reforms will be attempted to make up for the repealed farm laws. The National Monetisation Pipeline will get going but the progress will be modest. A couple of more disinvestment proposals of PSUs (including banks) will be taken up. But this will be for raising revenues rather than a planned strategy to make PSUs market competitive. The LIC IPO will just go over the line and that will be the big event to showcase reforms.”Result: Got that pretty much spot on. Maybe an 8/10.Politics - Prediction #1 & 2Here's what I wrote:“BJP election machine will continue its winning run barring the odd defeats in Punjab and Goa. The big prize, UP, will be fought hard but BJP will win a safe majority. The bahujan vote of the depleted BSP will shift to it more than to SP and that will make all the difference.”“There will be a split in the Congress. The party in its current form is untenable and beyond a point, there will be nothing to lose for those who split it. The key question is who will lead it - those who have a political base and think Congress leadership is a liability that cannot be carried along any further, or those without a political base but with strong ideological opposition to the BJP. My guess is it will be the latter. In any case, it won't make much of a difference.”Result: Punjab went the way I had guessed. Goa was close. Congress didn't split but it lost senior leaders like Capt. Amarinder Singh and Ghulam Nabi Azad among others. And despite the Bharat Jodo Yatra, which has only been in the news because people cannot believe Rahul Gandhi has sustained it for so long, I don't think Congress improved its election prospects dramatically this year.Society - Prediction #1“Expect love jihad and anti-conversion laws in various states, some kind of population control bill, a revival of CAA and a push for a uniform civil code during the year. There's that early 20th century Europe playbook of stoking demographic anxiety that plays on a threat to the survival of a civilisation or a way of living. The pitch will be queered on this. Indian society is a fertile ground for it. This land can be shown to its people as a palimpsest. But it can, perhaps more easily, be shown as a glorious, ancient civilisation that's been asphyxiated for centuries by ‘outsiders'. A true revival of it requires setting the past records straight and the right demographic arithmetic.”Result: Well, there was the usual noise around a lot of these issues but, thankfully, we had a somewhat muted year on legislating these. This didn't mean that the media mouthpieces and influential voices within and outside the government went slow on stirring the pot on these topics. We have reached a point where turning back on these issues will be difficult. It remains the one faultline that can derail our economic prospects that look surprisingly good at this moment. I will give myself a 7/10 as much as I want to score a zero here.   Society - Prediction #2“Politics is driven by the idea of having an enemy; the other. For much of the last decade, this was the left-liberal cabal (Lutyens, Khan market, NYT, Soros, Amnesty etc). Even when much of news and propaganda came to be dominated by the right-wing, there was a strawman of this all-powerful cabal of anti-nationals that was kept alive because the notion of an enemy is critical. But once you have decimated it, what do you do? You look for the enemy within.”Result: I will be the first to admit that I am still amazed at how this prediction isn't yet true. There are still imaginary left cabals to be fought against. It is a measure of both the enterprise of the propaganda machinery and the gullibility of ordinary voters that we are still drinking up all the kool-aid that we are being served on how anti-India interests are still the ‘establishment' in India and globally. There's still a long way to go before finding the enemy within your camp to fight. I will give a 5/10 on this. Miscellaneous - Prediction #1“There will be serious big tech regulations that will come into play in America. Others will follow suit. India will have a version of this along with dollops of atmanirbharta. This will mean some tough days for big consumer tech giants in India.”Result: Some big tech regulations have come into play in the US, and the collapse of FTX will lead to further clamping down. India came down heavily on Chinese apps and made life difficult for consumer-facing tech giants like Amazon, Meta and Alphabet. I expect this to continue. I guess a 7/10 on here will be about right. Miscellaneous - Prediction #2“China will struggle for growth. Demographics, debt and delusion have come together in China in a way that will make it difficult for it to sustain growth. China-Russia relationship will get stronger with their support for each other and for other authoritarian regimes around the world.”Result: Even without the Ukraine war, I thought this was how it was going to play out. It only became stronger with the war. I think I got a 9/10 there. Miscellaneous - Prediction #3“Meta, Crypto, Decentralisation, NFT (and everything else pumped up by the Valley tech bros) will see their hype abate (about 25-30 percent drop in asset value). When John Terry starts buying Bored Ape NFTs, you know the whole thing has jumped the shark. About time too.”Result: I should have followed my gut more and doubled down on this last year. I could sense a big correction, and a large-ish collapse was in the offing in this space. But I stopped short of calling a mini meltdown in this space. But that's how it turned out by the end of the year. An 8/10 here.So, there we are with how I fared on last year's predictions. I will come back next week with a few specific and somewhat contrarian predictions for 2023. Not(PolicyWTF): Making Education ProfitableThis section looks at surprisingly sane policies- Pranay KotasthaneThe University Grants Commission (UGC) released draft regulations earlier this week, permitting foreign universities to set up Indian campuses. While the draft needs some much-needed improvements, this reform is in the right direction. For the moment, keep the programmatic part of the policy aside. It's the politics of this move that caught my attention.Ritika Chopra in the Indian Express reminds us that the first such attempt was made in 1995. Another one in 2005-06 never made it past the cabinet. Then in 2010, the UPA government brought in another bill. The Foreign Educational Institutions (Regulation of Entry and Operations) Bill, 2010 was introduced in the Lok Sabha, a Standing Committee gave some suggestions, the government sat on it for three years, and it was tabled again in 2013. By 2014, the UPA was voted out, and the bill lapsed.It's interesting to observe how the Overton Window has changed on this issue. The 2010 bill was far less radical than the draft UGC regulations being proposed now. That bill disallowed foreign universities from repatriating any money abroad, it mandated that interested entities have a corpus fund of at least Rs 50 crores, and it allowed only entities that had operated for at least 20 years. Despite these unreasonable restrictions, the Left and the BJP still found the bill too permissive and buried it. The Left had a far greater influence on the matter as it was a part of the ruling coalition. I went back to check the best form of arguments put forward by the Left. True to form, they argued that this bill would encourage “commercialisation” of education. The CPM said it would open the ‘floodgates for weakening and dismantling the public education system in higher education. And India could be atmanirbhar in developing a higher education system; we need no help from anyone. Shouldn't we reflect on how much this ideological opposition cost us? What was the number of people who went ahead to get quality education in other countries, including in risky countries like Ukraine and Kazakhstan? Blocking foreign educational institutes for equity reasons is akin to banning people from eating Sushi just because India still has a large poor population. Forget the fact that a former General Secretary of the CPM is himself an alumnus of a British university. The BJP's objection predictably was that the courses offered could ‘adversely affect the sovereignty and integrity of India'. That insecurity hasn't subsided, and the new draft regulations have an explicit clause forbidding such courses. We can interpret the new draft regulations as an example of the Overton Window stretching on this issue. On some counts, it has extended the boundaries of freedom by allowing people to have more options within India while allowing foreign universities to repatriate money back home. It's a hesitant acknowledgement that profit-making in education is not bad. On the other hand, the Window has also stretched toward “lesser freedom” with clauses banning certain types of courses, effectively implying that non-controversial “technology” universities might receive preference over liberal arts universities. Real-life policymaking is often a search for the second-best option. So I'll take the door left ajar, rather than it remaining closed altogether.HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters* [Podcast] Some predictions for 2023 by the Puliyabaazi team* [Book] Optimally Irrational: Good Reasons Why We Behave The Way We Do is promising.* [Article] Many editions ago, we wrote about the EU ban on chargers, warning that it could come to India as well. That ban is here though, and we again reiterate why it is counterproductive. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

The LIC IPO was billed as India’s “Aramco moment”. But, with the stock down nearly 30% since listing, it has wiped out $17billion in market value and is among the biggest wealth destroyers among Asian IPOs. What does this mean for the government’s disinvestment targets? Please listen to the latest episode of All Indians Matter.

In what was the biggest stock market listing in India, LIC IPO-d last fortnight at 6 lakh crore or almost $90Bn, rocketing to India's #5 For more visit - https://ajuniorvc.com/lic-ipo-history-case-study-valuation-insurance-startup-journey/ AJVC: https://ajuniorvc.com/

Join our Telegram groupfor all free updates about market and finance matters. New episode releases every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Contact for availing our services on Mutual funds investment advisory, Stocks selection advisory, Personal finance, retirement planning & crypto investing: Email: freewithfinance@gmail.com Whatsapp : + 91 7058248602 , Click here to send a Whatsapp message Download The FinAzaad App for Financial market courses & Advisory services: Click for Android Click for IOS : (After installing the IOS app, enter organisation code: xtsbl & enter your phone no, verify by OTP & the app is ready to use) Click hereto send me a voice message (Questions, Opinions, Feedbacks) & I will include it in my next episode. Hindi Podcast(crypto, personal finance, career & entrepreneurship) Hindi Youtube Channel(Stocks Technical Analysis) English Youtube Channel (Crypto, personal finance & much more) Disclaimer: This podcast is only for sharing our personal opinions and for educational purposes only. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/aniket-choudhari/message

गिरावट के साथ लिस्ट हुआ LIC IPO, ज्ञानवापी सर्वे में एक और कोर्ट कमिश्नर नियुक्त करने की मांग, अंडमान निकोबार में मॉनसून ने दी दस्तक, सुनिए 1 बजे का न्यूज़ बुलेटिन- 5 मिनट.

अंतरिम आदेश में सुप्रीम कोर्ट ने क्यों नहीं दिया वापी में वज़ू करने का आदेश, LIC IPO की लिस्टिंग के बाद निवेशकों के लिए क्या है बेहतर ऑप्शन, क्यों एक झटके में मुख्यमंत्री तक बदल दे रही है BJP और कार्ति चिदम्बरम के ठिकानों पर छापेमारी की टाइमिंग को लेकर क्यों उठ रहे हैं सवाल, सुनिए दिन भर में जमशेद क़मर सिद्दीकी से.प्रड्यूसर - शुभम तिवारीसाउंड मिक्सिंग - कपिल देव सिंहDisclaimer: इस पॉडकास्ट में एक्सपर्ट्स के विचार उनके निजी हैं. आज तक रेडियो इसका अनुमोदन नहीं करता.

the big reveal in todays episode about Jayeshbhai Jordarr .. Ranveer singh on the big screen again hit or miss ?? indias young batting brigade from jaiswal to paddikal to rituraj gaikwad , who really has a chance to make it to a permanent spot in the indian team and in our finance segment : Lic Ipo to try or not tooo and if yes will it prosper ? Salil Acharya ( rj / vj / actor ) and Greenstone Lobo ( astrologer and ex banker ) reveal all

After public sector insurance behemoth Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) trimmed the size of its initial public offer (IPO) from over Rs 60,000 crore to Rs 21,000 crore, Softbank-backed Delhivery has trimmed its issue size from Rs 7,460 crore to Rs 5,500 crore to align with the volatile market conditions.   Delhivery's IPO will be second biggest this year after LIC and among the top-five since 2021. Besides these two IPOs, nearly half a dozen companies plan to raise over Rs 7,500 crore via primary markets in May alone. According to a recent note by Prime Database, 54 companies plan to raise a massive Rs 1.4 trillion, including the LIC IPO, in 2022 and currently hold market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India's (Sebi's) approval. Another 43 companies, the note said, are looking to raise about Rs 81,000 crore where Sebi approval is still awaited.   The largest IPO in 2021-22 in terms of size, which was also the largest Indian IPO ever till the LIC IPO came around, was of One 97 Communications (PayTM) for Rs 18,300 crore.   So, what's in store for primary markets in the months ahead? Will the fund raising frenzy slow a bit?   According to Sunil Tirumalai, strategist at UBS Securities India, primary markets will definitely see a fallout of slowing flows and pressure on valuations. The downsizing of LIC IPO is an example of the same, he says. Now let's go to Ambareesh Baliga, an independent market analyst, to understand the dynamics in details. IPOs involve long-term planning, he says adding that trimming the IPO size is a prudent thing to do given the current markets. Timing the IPO is difficult, but companies need to leave something on the table for investors for the IPO to garner subscription, he says.    So, will the volatile market conditions see companies trim their offer size? VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist of Geojit Financial Services says IPOs do well in a bull-market; key is to get the issue price right. LIC's original plan to offload 5% equity was an uphill task in the current market, he says adding that issuers need not wait for a ‘favourable' time / postpone issue. Message from the market is clear: Get the pricing right, he says.    Today, the markets will react to the US CPI numbers and how the global markets perform. Stock-specific action is likely to continue amid volatility.  

This week on Think Fast, Varun & Suchita get into a little Mumbai-Delhi squabble and share some more Elon Musk news. Suchita talks about the ongoing Abortion Rights case in the US, and the LIC IPO. The big stories include Wingreens' latest acquisitions, Good Glamm's fresh stakes in Raymond's consumer business, an update on Desi Thrasios, Spotify's positive outlook towards the India Market, Influencers turning podcasters and attracting brands, and Snapchat's drone Pixy. Varun recommends the 'Not Lost' podcast while Suchita recommends 'The Flight Attendant' on HBO Max.You can follow Varun Duggirala on Twitter at: https://twitter.com/varunduggi and on Instagram at https://instagram.com/varunduggiYou can follow Suchita Salwan on Twitter at https://twitter.com/suchitasalwan and on Instagram at https://instagram.com/suchitasalwanCheck out video episodes on the Think Fast YouTube Channel.You can follow IVM Podcasts on social media. We are @IVMPodcasts on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, YouTube.You can listen to this show and other awesome shows on the new and improved IVM Podcasts App on Android or iOS.

क्या AAP में अपना भविष्य तलाश रहे हैं नवजोत सिंह सिद्धू? देशद्रोह क़ानून में रेगुलेशन की बात पर सरकार ने क्यों मारा यू टर्न? रेपो रेट बढ़ने के बाद LIC IPO की लिस्टिंग से क्या उम्मीद है? सुनिए 'आज का दिन' में अमन गुप्ता के साथ.

India's power consumption spiked to an all-time high of 132.98 billion units in April amid the rise in mercury level in the country. According to India's power ministry, the country's electricity demand is expected to rise to 220 gigawatts in the next two months as meteorological department forecasts above normal maximum temperatures in west-central, north-west, north and north-eastern regions. It's not surprising then, that power-related stocks have been the favourable destinations with investors this year. The stock prices of power sector companies, including power generation and power distribution, have done materially better than benchmark indices.   Shares of companies like Adani Power, Tata Power, Power Grid, NTPC have surged from 2 to 175%, so far, this year. In comparison, the S&P BSE Power index has gained over 35%, while the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex index declined over 7% during the same period.   However, despite the rally, analysts remain bullish on related stocks and expect power utilities to benefit from the spread between rising power demand and acute energy crisis.   Speaking to Business Standard, AK Prabhakar, Head of Research, IDBI Capital, said NTPC will be the biggest beneficiary of coal-shortage crisis. He is positive on NTPC, Tata Power and Torrent Power. While power demand is likely to remain elevated till June, Coal India will be a beneficiary from peak power demand, he said. However, higher employee costs a worry for Coal India's margin.   That said, some industrial units in states like Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Delhi, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, are reportedly considering production cuts amid power outages. Moreover, the dwindling inventory of coal, which contributes nearly 80 per cent of India's power generation, has also failed to keep pace with the elevated energy demand.   Though stated-owned Coal India has ramped up supplies to power plants by 6.7 metric tons from a year ago, analysts remain uncertain whether the increased output would cater to both international as well as domestic demand. Analysts assume Coal India to benefit from higher volume growth due to accelerated dispatches of coal to power plants at domestic front.   According to Abhijeet Bora, Senior Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas says Coal India a beneficiary from higher volume growth YoY. Fixed costs dent outlook, while earnings outlook for power-generation companies remains intact, he says adding that he is bullish on NTPC, Power Grid and Tata Power.   Meanwhile, high prices of imported coal due to geopolitical uncertainties are expected to send power tariffs through the roof.  In March, merchant power prices surged to 8.2 rupees per unit as against an average of 4 rupees per unit.   According to a report by CRISIL Ratings merchant tariffs could remain over 6 rupees per unit this quarter – the highest in the past five fiscals.   Overall, with production reviving to pre-pandemic levels, the need for clean power supply also gives immense scope of growth for the power sector. Therefore, analysts expect the momentum in power stocks has more steam left.   Lastly, investors saw markets shut on a choppy note, as frontline indices Nifty 50 and Sensex closed 0.67% lower each. However, primary markets were abuzz as the mega LIC IPO was subscribed over 2.91 times on the final day. As regards today, investors will watch out for earnings report card of Asian Paints, Cipla, Vodafone Idea and Gujarat Gas.

Join our Telegram groupfor all free updates about market and finance matters. New episode releases every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Contact for availing our services on Mutual funds investment advisory, Stocks selection advisory, Personal finance, retirement planning & crypto investing: Email: freewithfinance@gmail.com Whatsapp : + 91 7058248602 , Click here to send a Whatsapp message Download The FinAzaad App for Financial market courses & Advisory services: Click for Android Click for IOS : (After installing the IOS app, enter organisation code: xtsbl & enter your phone no, verify by OTP & the app is ready to use) Click hereto send me a voice message (Questions, Opinions, Feedbacks) & I will include it in my next episode. Hindi Podcast(crypto, personal finance, career & entrepreneurship) Hindi Youtube Channel(Stocks Technical Analysis) English Youtube Channel (Crypto, personal finance & much more) Disclaimer: This podcast is only for sharing our personal opinions and for educational purposes only. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/aniket-choudhari/message

Global equities, including Indian, tumbled last week as central bankers embarked on the journey on interest rate hikes.   As anticipated, the US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell announced a 50-basis points rate hike in May policy meet, while the Bank of England raised rates by 25 basis points. However, what surprised the domestic equities was the out-of-policy 40-bps repo rate hike by the Reserve Bank of India. It also increased the CRR limit by 50 basis points. Equities are now battling fears of record-high inflation, dented prospects of corporate profitability, and likelihood of contraction in economic growth. Besides, the ongoing Ukraine war, Covid-19 related fresh restrictions in China, and select disappointing corporate earnings took their toll on the markets. Eventually, the S&P BSE Sensex ended the week with a heavy loss of 2,226 points or 3.9 per cent. The NSE Nifty50, too, plunged 692 per cent, its biggest weekly fall since late November 2021. However, as we sit near two-month lows, investors are wondering if the market has overreacted or is there more pain ahead? Speaking to Business Standard, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services says, market weakness reflects investors' nervousness and he is skeptical of central banks' ability to tame inflation. Investors expect aggressive monetary tightening policy, he says.   As pointed out, the near-term outlook remains volatile as investors remain skeptical of central banks' ability to tame inflation.   As regards this week, shares of Asian Paints, Cipla, GNFC, Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro, Siemens and Vodafone Idea among others are likely to be in focus as the companies are scheduled to announce their March quarter results. Meanwhile, the primary market will be buzzing with activity. The mega Rs 21,000 crore LIC IPO received an overwhelming response from retail investors. The IPO was fully subscribed on the Day 2 of the offer period itself, despite the broader market weakness. The issue closes for subscription on Monday. The listing is likely to be on May 17.   Further, Prudent Corporate Advisory Services and Delhivery IPOs will open for subscription this week.  Watch video

With the surge in global commodity prices, global central banks, including the RBI, have turned hawkish to tame inflation. Thus, analysts expect volatility to be the new normal for equity markets. Frontline indices – Nifty 50 and S&P BSE Sensex – have tanked 4% each so far this year amid a triple whammy of rising interest rates, inflation, and geo-political tensions. With the RBI joining hands with global majors in pivoting policy towards inflation control, analysts expect the central bank to aggressively increase rates in 2022 to drain liquidity out of the system. Hence, the question revolves around how investors should design their portfolio in a rising interest regime? According to AK Prabhakar of IDBI Capital, banks and life insurance companies could be the safer bet amid the rate hike regime. On the flipside, analysts expect rising interest rates to dampen capital-intensive companies with heavy debt on books. Overall, investors may look to add financials and IT to their portfolio, while debt-heavy capital goods stocks may be avoided in these times.   Meanwhile, Friday's trading session will largely focus on stock-specific action amid Q4 results season, and global trends. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries is set to announce its March report card today amid expectations of a somber sequential earnings' growth.   Analysts expect the Mukesh Ambani-led conglomerate to report consolidated net sales and EBITDA growth of up to 52% and 35% year-on-year, and up to 22% and 6% quarter-on-quarter. Furthermore, the net profit growth is pegged in the range of 18 to 28% YoY, but down up to 16% QoQ. Among key monitorables, analysts will eye management's commentary on benefits from higher fuel margins and crude sourcing strategy, comments on the impact of higher petrochem prices on domestic demand, and signs of reversal in telecom subscriber churn.   In the primary market, investor participation in the mega LIC IPO on its third day will be on the radar after the issue sailed through on Day 2.

अमरावती से सांसद नवनीत राणा और उनके पति रवि राणा को मिली ज़मानत, यूपी के ललितपुर में SO पर 13 साल की नाबालिग़ के साथ रेप का आरोप, पहले घंटे में 12% सब्सक्राइब हुआ LIC का IPO, सुनिए दोपहर 1 बजे तक की बड़ी खबरें

The initial public offer of Life Insurance Corporation is set to open for subscription today.   At Rs 21,000 crore, the offer will be India's biggest issue till date. The next two biggest issues that hit the Street in the past were that of Paytm-owner One97 Communication, and state-run Coal India.   Globally, this is the world's fifth biggest IPO in calendar year 2022.   LIC's IPO witnessed robust traction from leading investors including SBI Mutual Fund, Axis Mutual Fund and Aditya Birla Sun Life MF. The company raised around Rs 5,627 crore from anchor investors on Monday, at Rs 949 per share. However, much of this amount was raised with the help of domestic mutual funds as foreign funds invested little over Rs 1,600 crore. Analysts say the low demand may be because of the present risk aversion among foreign portfolio investors. Nonetheless, the government is hoping to see bumper subscription levels for LIC, riding on the back of retail and non-institutional investors. Over 8,500 crore rupees worth of shares have been reserved for retail investors, policyholders and employees in the IPO. LIC policyholders are entitled to a discount of 60 rupees over the issue price, the retail investors will be offered the issue at a discount of Rs 45 per equity share. Therefore, if you are someone who is wondering whether to apply for India's biggest IPO amid market volatility, here're the key things that you should know. LIC's total assets under management is over 3.2 times the total AUM of all domestic private peers. It also enjoys premium based market share of 64%. At the upper price band of Rs 949, LIC is available at a price-to-embedded value of 1.1x, which is at a discount of 65% compared to the average valuation of private life insurance players. This valuation, analysts believe, factors-in most of the negatives that the insurer is currently facing.   Speaking to Business Standard, Nirav Karkera, Head of Research at Fisdom says LIC is conceding market share to private peers, and its huge dependence on sales agent network could be a vulnerability. LIC's profitability, margins remain under pressure, he says.  The company's lower value of new business margin, that is indicative of profit margin, was at 9.9% for FY21 compared with 23-26% for private players. It further has lower short-term persistency ratio relative to private peers, which shows lower customer stickiness.   However, the insurer's strong market presence, coupled with the highest return on equity ratio, domestically, is keeping analysts bullish on the issue.   According to Karkera, LIC is capable of recouping lost ground and the IPO could be a long-term value creation story. LIC's growth prospects outweigh challenges, he says.    B Gopkumar of Axis Securities, too, sees LIC as a long-term investment bet. While he expects the near-term market volatility to weigh on the stock performance, he believes the under penetration of insurance and improving financialisation of savings could make LIC a long-term value bet. Given this, analysts remain uncertain about the initial listing gains, but view the IPO as a mid-to-long term investment opportunity. As of Tuesday, the stock was commanding a premium of Rs 60 per share, indicating a likely listing gain of 6%.   Overall, though the markets are volatile, analysts believe there is enough liquidity in the Indian markets for a large issue like LIC to get enough subscriptions. Watch video

The much-awaited IPO of Life Insurance Corporation is set to open for subscription today, after it recorded bumper participation from anchor investors. The interest for the issue has been gaining currency, evident from its rising grey market premium and strong anchor book. Find out what analysts make of the issue and if you should subscribe to it.   Analysts are bullish about the LIC IPO, like the way G7 leaders are optimistic about ‘wooing New Delhi away from its longstanding alliance with Russia'. To this end, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the G7 leaders' summit next month as a special guest. But, that's easier said than done. Diplomatic efforts in the past haven't brought about the sort of response from India that the West had hoped for. What's going to be the possible outcome of this latest attempt? Around 11% fewer households demanded work under the rural employment scheme MGNREGA in April. The Centre has asked officials to plug leakages in welfare schemes and at the same time, some beneficiaries are returning back to urban areas as economic activity picks up. So, what led to this fall in demand for MGNREGA work in April?    The Drug Controller General of India has recently approved the emergency use of the Covid-19 vaccine Corbevax for children aged five to 12. Corbevax is India's first indigenously developed recombinant protein sub-unit vaccine. This episode of the podcast simplifies the new vaccine and elaborates how it can boost the immune response in your kid.    Watch video

Iss episode mei suniye, Twitter use karne ke liye shayad karni hogi jeb dheeli, Nepal ke nightclub mei party karte hue ho raha Rahul Gandhi ka video viral aur lambe intezar ke baad aaj ho raha LIC IPO launch.

Will continue playing Hanuman Chalisa at mosques, not 1-day event: Raj Thackeray, LIC IPO booked over 30% so far, bids to stay open Saturday for retail investors, India wants Russia to sell its oil at less than $70 per barrel: report, and other top news in this bulletin.

Elon Musk hints he may charge commercial, govt users from Twitter, India's ranking in the World Press Freedom Index has fallen down to 150th position, LIC IPO opens for retail and institutional investors today and will close on May 9 and other top news in this bulletin.

In this episode, find out why Amazon has written to Sebi against Future Retail, also find out about Adani Wilmar's acquisition of Kohinoor brand from McCormick Switzerland GMBH Business Term of the Day: Grey Market Premium

The wait is over! India's biggest ever Initial Public Offering (IPO) of Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) kicked off for subscription for retail institutional investors today, that is on 4 May. Since it's completely an offer for sale, all the proceedings will directly go to the government which is expecting to raise Rs 21,000 crores by selling a 3.5% stake of LIC, in a bid to replenish the public coffers that have been drained out by the pandemic. But moving on to the pricing details, the price band for this IPO has been set at Rs 902-949 per share for sale of 22.13 crores equity shares. There is also a discount offer of Rs 60 per share for its policyholders and Rs 45 apiece for retail investors and LIC employees. The LIC IPO will close on 9 May and the company will be listed on the stock exchange on 17 May. And the first two hours of the first day of bidding itself saw a pretty decent response with a subscription of around 28 percent by 12 noon. By the time of the recording of this podcast, it was at 58 percent. Expectedly, in the months leading up to this massive IPO listing, there's been a lot of buzz around this listing, partly because LIC which is a state-run insurance company, has been a household name in the country for several decades given that it's the biggest and the oldest insurance company in India. But after some newly listed stocks of companies Zomato, Nykaa and Paytm hit record lows after many weeks of record highs...there's also been a big question among policyholders and investors, and it is: to invest or not to invest? While that is a tricky question to answer, what are the pros and cons of investing? We'll take that question to our guest Prosenjit Datta, former editor of Businessworld and Business Today in the podcast today. We'll also hear from senior journalist Madhavan Narayanan on his take on why the government is going ahead with this IPO listing under volatile market conditions. Tune in! Host and Producer: Shorbori Purkayastha Editor: Shelly Walia Music: Big Bang Fuzz Listen to The Big Story podcast on: Apple: https://apple.co/2AYdLIl Saavn: http://bit.ly/2oix78C Google Podcasts: http://bit.ly/2ntMV7S Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2IyLAUQ Deezer: http://bit.ly/2Vrf5Ng Castbox: http://bit.ly/2VqZ9ur

Record high inflation and the growing hawkish tones of global central banks, including the Reserve Bank of India, has derailed recovery in the equity markets. The benchmark Sensex, for instance, had jumped about 15% from its March lows to hit a high of 60,612 on April 4.   However, the RBI's hawkish policy, along with the US Fed chairman's hint at a 50-bps rate hike in May weakened the bulls. Besides, persistent geopolitical tensions and lower-than-expected Q4 result of India Inc, so far, also dented the sentiment.   Consequently, the benchmarks fell about 6% from their April highs and ended the previous month with a loss of 2.5% on a month-on-month basis. Now, as we head in May, the old adage of ‘Sell in May and Go away' is unsettling investors. To be sure, this saying has often proved true for the US and European markets.   Data since 2010 shows Indian frontline indices have given positive returns on seven occasions in the month of May. Last year, Nifty50 and S&P BSE Sensex rose 6.5% each during the period as global central banks continued with their dovish stance. However, the May of 2022 may be different. Global central banks are withdrawing liquidity, and China is seeing its worst Covid outbreak yet. Analysts believe that if China – known as the factory of the world -- continues with its ‘zero-Covid policy', it will aggravate global supply chain disruptions further.   Speaking to Business Standard, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services, monetary policy tightening, soaring inflation are likely to keep markets volatile. He suggests investors should avoid buying aggressively amid uncertainty, and use sharp correction to buy high-quality names.  Back home, indicators aren't favouring the bulls as well. Resurgence of Covid-19 and rising inflation are the immediate threats. While India's biggest initial public offer of LIC may bring short-term respite for investors, analysts caution that markets cannot be immune to the pain seen in global markets.   According to Ambareesh Baliga, independent market analyst, LIC IPO is likely to act as a catalyst to ‘Sell in May and go away'; He expects Rs 21,000-crore liquidity drain due to the IPO, but muted earnings growth, rate hike likely to dull markets in May.   Against this backdrop, technical charts indicate that the Sensex could move in a broad range of 54,500 to 60,500. Investors can expect significant support around 55,650-odd levels, and resistance around 59,350.   Nifty50 is expected to move in the range of 16,200 to 18,300, with a support at 16,000 levels and resistance at 17,550. Meanwhile, investors will track Q4 report card of HDFC, Britannia Industries, Tata Consumer, Inox Leisure, Hero MotoCorp, Tata Steel, Titan Company, and Tata Power in the holiday-truncated week. They will also await the launch of LIC's mega IPO due on Wednesday. Globally, US Federal Reserve and Bank of England will announce their interest rate decisions. Watch video

Join our Telegram groupfor all free updates about market and finance matters. New episode releases every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. Contact for availing our services on Mutual funds investment advisory, Stocks selection advisory, Personal finance, retirement planning & crypto investing: Email: freewithfinance@gmail.com Whatsapp : + 91 7058248602 , Click here to send a Whatsapp message Download The FinAzaad App for Financial market courses & Advisory services: Click for Android Click for IOS : (After installing the IOS app, enter organisation code: xtsbl & enter your phone no, verify by OTP & the app is ready to use) Click hereto send me a voice message (Questions, Opinions, Feedbacks) & I will include it in my next episode. Hindi Podcast(crypto, personal finance, career & entrepreneurship) Hindi Youtube Channel(Stocks Technical Analysis) English Youtube Channel (Crypto, personal finance & much more) Disclaimer: This podcast is only for sharing our personal opinions and for educational purposes only. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/aniket-choudhari/message

Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) is set to become the largest listed insurance company in India and fifth largest listed insurance player globally. Kumar Shankar Roy and Hamsini Karthik discuss the much-awaited IPO's valuation, business nitty-gritties, rewards, and risks. Listen in! --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/business-line/message

Life Insurance Corporation's much-awaited IPO is finally opening on May 4. But much like the initial euphoria around it, its size also looks diminished. Its current valuation is now Rs 6lakh crore, less than half of the expected value of around Rs 13lakh crore. Three years ago, the government had faced backlash for underpricing the IRCTC IPO. So is the government undervaluing another state-run behemoth? Or has it taken this call after due diligence?  LIC IPO may well attract a fresh wave of investors into the markets. Something similar had happened with OTT platforms during the lockdown, when people of all ages turned to it. In 2020, Netflix had added 36 million subscribers. But the streaming giant saw its customer base shrink by 200,000 during the January-March quarter. And it has projected a loss of another 2 million subscribers in the current quarter. Netflix is now mulling a low-cost subscription supported by advertising. What it would mean for it and for the Indian OTT ecosystem? After Netflix, let us move on to markets. It has been a rollercoaster ride for investors during the April F&O series, with bears having the slight edge. Will they triumph? Or will the bulls fight back today?  Russia-Ukraine war is not just shaping the markets. It is forging ties between countries too. India and the European Union (EU) agreed to establish a Trade and Technology Council early this week. What it is and what both the sides will gain from it, listen to this episode of the podcast to know.  Watch video

Equity markets have been volatile of late, given the turmoil in global markets. The ongoing Ukraine crisis, high commodity prices and a likely onset of higher interest rate regime have kept bulls on the sidelines.   Back home, disappointment on the earnings front have also plagued select stocks, thus adding to the woes. So far in April the NSE Nifty has swung in a wide range of nearly 1,300 points. From a high of 18,115, the index dropped to a low of 16,825, before recouping some of its lost ground. Still, the index is down over 3 per cent on a month-to-date basis. Among the Nifty 50 stocks Mahindra & Mahindra, Adani Ports, NTPC, Eicher Motors and Shree Cement have been the major gainers so far, while Hindalco, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Wipro and Bajaj Finserv are the major losers. According to Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst, LKP Securities, April F&O series was one of the most volatile series in recent times. It saw selling pressure at higher end on Nifty and Nifty Bank, while Lower Top, Lower Bottom formation was seen on charts. Now, the stage is set for a tug-of-war between the bulls and bears on the expiry day. As per the options data, the highest open interest is seen in 17,500 Call and 17,000 Put. Higher open interest in Call indicates resistance and vice versa in case of the Puts. On Wednesday, the 17,000 and 17,100 Calls saw significant build-up in open interest. And, at the same time, the 17,000 Put saw heavy addition. This trend suggests investors should brace themselves for a fierce tug-of-war in the range of 16,950-17,150. A significant breakout on the lower side of the range can trigger a sharp sell-off. On the other hand, a sustained trade above 17,150 can trigger a short-covering rally. According to Manojh Vayalar of Religare Broking with FIIs focussed more on index options, volatility could be high today.  A close above 17,250 on the Nifty and above 36,500 on the Bank Nifty can lead to over 400 points and 1,200 points rally on both the indices during the first week of May. Meanwhile, apart from the F&O expiry induced volatility, markets may eye global cues for further trajectory. Moreover, stock specific action amid Q4 results season will remain high. Shares of Ambuja Cements, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Biocon and Vedanta are likely to be in focus as the companies are scheduled to announce their Q4 earnings. The primary market, too, will see some action with the ongoing IPOs of Campus Activewear and Rainbow Children's Medicare. Further, the mega 21,000 crore rupees LIC IPO shall open for subscription on May 4, next week. Watch video

Policy holders may get Rs 60 discount retail investors and employees rupees 45 --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/nirmit-verma/support

It will be the biggest IPO that India has seen so far. Apart from testing the appetite of investors, the LIC's stake sale will also add Rs 21,000 crore to the government exchequer. After missing two deadlines, the IPO of India's largest insurer may finally hit the primary market on May 4. Most experts believe that it will get a good response from both retail and institutional investors. Our next report tells about what the Street expects from the IPO and whether you should take a slice of this pie. Like the LIC's price band, curiosity is surrounding Twitter's future course too. After land and space, Elon Musk is all set to make his presence felt in the virtual world now. The world's richest man -- known for taking risks and pulling off impossible -- is in all likelihood the next Twitter chief. A free speech absolutist, he calls Twitter a digital Town Square where matters vital to the future of humanity are debated. Our next report tries to unravel his views to find how Musk may shape one of the world's most influential social media platforms.  Back home, India Inc is also witnessing aggressive merger and acquisitions. After PVR and Inox, the news of HDFC's merger with HDFC Bank took many by surprise. While experts believe that the trend underlines the desire of India Inc's cash-rich companies for inorganic growth, they are also cautioning investors. Take a dive into this trend and how can investors benefit from them. After the markets, let us move on to a technology which is very crucial to the success of electronic vehicles. Advanced chemistry cell batteries may soon be manufactured in India too, thanks to the government's PLI scheme. These cells account for 80% of the cost of lithium-ion batteries. Listen to this episode of the podcast to know more. Watch video

Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) had given a nod to the initial public offering proposal of LIC last month. While the price band of the issue is expected to be announced today, reports suggest that the offer will run between May 4 and May 9. LIC's management and investment bankers will likely embark on road shows in six cities across India where they will meet potential investors and analysts. The cities include Mumbai, New Delhi, Bengaluru, Ahmedabad, Rajkot, and Kolkata. The government has nearly halved its fundraising goal for LIC's IPO to $3.9 billion, having had to cut its valuation estimates after feedback from investors. Yet, analysts don't expect the issue to see a blockbuster response from investors amid uncertain market conditions. Gaurang Shah, Vice-President at Geojit Financial Services says he expect LIC IPO to sail through but not with whopping subscription numbers. He expects tp see decent demand for LIC IPO from HNIs and retail investors Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking, too, expects the IPO to enjoy decent traction given its dominant market share in the insurance space. Business Standard spoke to Ajit Mishra, VP-Research at Religare Broking. According to a Business Standard report, most large global investors that the Centre was wooing for the initial public may give the issue a miss. Earlier, the Centre had reached out to 180-200 large investors that included sovereign wealth funds, and those who make investment decisions based on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) track record. These investors are learnt to have committed to consider investing in the insurer's future offerings, based on its performance as a listed entity. This comes as the Ukraine war dynamics have made foreign investors skittish. They now see currency risks and anticipate embargoes while considering investing in emerging markets.  The US Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has further made them choose a safe haven. But an impressive response from domestic investors and some foreign investors have made the government go ahead with the IPO.  Analysts believe that it will lead to a fresh wave of investors entering the market. The public issue is likely to reserve 35 percent of its offer for retail investors, 10 per cent for policyholders and 5 per cent for LIC employees.  Going forward, the government will look at an additional stake dilution in LIC only after a year of the insurer's listing.  Watch video

पीएम मोदी ने 'मन की बात' में पूछे संग्रहालयों से जुड़े सवाल, नवनीत राणा के ख़िलाफ़ एक औरFIR हुई दर्ज, LIC का IPO साइज़ होगा छोटा, सुनिए 1 बजे का न्यूज़ बुलेटिन- 5 मिनट.

In this episode, find out about Holcim Group's plans to exit the India cement business, also find out why auto output fell to levels seen 5 years ago Business Term of the Day: Downtrading

India Policy Watch #1: Love For PutinInsights on burning policy issues in India- RSJYou must have noticed a distinct anti-west, pro-Putin tone in the media outlets that toe the government’s line in India. The intellectual right has been busy with columns equivocating on who has to shoulder the blame for the war. What could be the reasons for this? There’s of course the strategic autonomy argument. We are dependent on Russia for our defence and oil requirements. It has been a reliable friend of ours in the past. And we cannot trust the US anyway. There’s also the added hypocrisy of western Europe which continues to trade gas with Russia while lecturing us on our purchase of oil. Everyone is looking out for their interests and so should we. It is best to keep equidistant from any particular formation and act as a ‘swing power’. Pranay has written in the past few editions on why strategic autonomy as a policy isn’t suited for the likely emerging world order. But that aside, you can somewhat understand the anti-west stance if its origins lie in the traditional suspicion of the west and reflexive desire to be non-aligned in the policy circle in India. But there’s more here. The anti-west stance is also about fighting the favourite imaginary global nexus of liberals and wokes. So, you will notice almost every television debate on Ukraine will devolve into some kind of liberal and Biden bashing. If you are so concerned about Ukraine, why don’t you put your troops on the ground instead of hectoring India - is the usual line taken by anchors. Implicit in it is some kind of ‘Putin envy’ that I have noticed among the right-wing intellectuals in India. The idea that a strong man like Putin has revived national pride among Russians and brought it back into the superpower league from where it was languishing in the aftermath of the Soviet meltdown. This is obviously rubbish if you bother to look at the data. Russia is a small power whose economy has gone from bad to worse under Putin. It has a huge nuclear stockpile from its past that gives the rest of the world the only reason to pause before dismissing it as a nobody. But there’s a fascination among the right intellectuals to make the case for a Putin-like revival of India. I remember just before the 2014 elections, Swapan Dasgupta made this argument in the Sunday Times of India (Mar 9, 2014):“However, to a people exasperated with prolonged uncertainty and decline, Putin is the antidote to the unending sadness and deprivation that defined 20th century Russia. He has created the conditions for the average Russian to feel good, get rich and, for a change, indulge. This exuberance is unlikely to last indefinitely but, for the moment, the Russian context favours a Putin-like robustness......To the west, Putin’s reclamation of Crimea (and, earlier, a slice of Georgia) and his assertion of Russia’s stakes in Ukraine may seem ominous. For Russia, it is, however, symbolic of the bid to reverse the historic defeat in the Cold War. But Putin’s bid to reclaim Russia’s status as a Great Power was only possible because the economic and political foundations for an enhanced role have been firmed up over the past decade. In India, on the other hand, the fierce desire of the past 25 years to transcend mediocrity, shoddiness and look the world powers in the eye has floundered. It is not that the UPA government has no achievements to its credit. India has progressed but it has seriously under-performed in terms of its potential... Whether faith in Modi encapsulates the anger at a dismal present and a brighter future will be tested in a free election. If Modi prevails on May 16, we shouldn’t be surprised if his detractors paint him to the world as India’s Putin. If he lives up to the liberal demonology, those with a stake in India’s future should be elated. Just as Russia is with Putin.”I remember this column distinctly for two reasons. It was already so wrong back then in thinking that Russia was becoming a Great Power under Putin. But, importantly, it gave me an early indicator of what kind of aspiration the right has from its political dominance in India. Some kind of muddled civilisational nationalism with akhand Bharat fantasies whose best example for them was an expansionist Russia of 2014. Putin was their best answer to western liberalism and the wokeism that accompanied it. It worried me then and it has only gotten worse.The right intellectual ecosystem has continued in the same vein in the last two months. Here’s R. Jagannathan writing in the Swarajya on how NATO is past its sell-by date:“The reality is that Europe is the most fractious of continents, and just as France and Germany decided after the two world wars that enemies must be part of the same economic union to avoid future wars, Russia needs to become a part of both the mutual defence pact and the European Union. This way Europe’s security needs will be buttressed with a mutual economic zone where Russia’s energy can power Europe, and Europe’s markets Russia’s economic revival.America can at best be an observer in this alliance. The world cannot allow its over-grown military-industrial complex to decide who should go to war against who just so that this complex can protect its commercial interests.India’s own security architecture would be better protected by aligning with this expanded Europe, and especially with France and Germany, with Russia and Japan being other big partners. A Franco-German-Russo-Indo-Japanese QUINT (rather than an America-led QUAD) could lead to a less threatening relationship with China.”It is quite an intellectual leap to first contemplate some kind of QUINT with those powers coming together. What specific long-term interests bind them? None, except for the author’s fantasy to somehow shoehorn Russia as a legitimate and peaceful power under Putin. At its heart lies the same revivalist admiration and fantasy that Swapan Dasgupta spoke of in 2014. There’s, however, a different reason I can think of about the stance taken by these pro-government media channels on Russia and the war in Ukraine. And this credits the government with a lot more intelligence in managing its position on Ukraine. It is about the government playing the two-level game really well here. As we know, all negotiations in international relations are a two-level game as Putnam put it. At any time, a state is negotiating with other states (intergovernmental) while simultaneously managing its domestic constituency and its concerns on the issues. A clever negotiator will look to use his position on one ‘table’ to influence the outcome on the other in a way that gets him a ‘win’ that’s part of his ‘win-set’. Maybe, just maybe, the government is playing a clever two-level game. It is using its phalanx of friendly editors and journalists to talk up India’s dependence on Russia, its historical special ties with it and how dumping Russia at this moment will be perceived negatively by the people of India. This seems like a good tactic to follow because it allows the ministry of external affairs to sit at the international table and show the constraints India has to give its unqualified support to the west. “See, this is the domestic mood on Russia. What do you want us to do beyond a point” - that’s what India might be telling the west. This seems like a good way to continue sitting on the fence on the issue and hoping for the war to end to have things sort themselves out. I would like to believe this is what the government has been doing to keep itself away from western sanctions while it continues to engage with Russia. Is it working? Well, it seemed to have worked for a while. However, the US patience seems to be wearing thin as this warning from Brian Deese, the White House National Economic Council Director, suggests:"Our message to the Indian government is that the costs and consequences for them of moving into a more explicit strategic alignment with Russia will be significant and long-term. There are certainly areas where we have been disappointed by both China and India's decisions, in the context of the invasion."Hmm. So, what changed? One of the going-in assumptions in Putnam’s two-level game theory is about the credibility of the constraints and options each state might have in its hands. If you have to show you have a domestic compulsion because of which you will need some flexibility on the international table, it must appear credible to the other state at the table. India might be emphasising its domestic compulsions in supporting Russia by showing what’s appearing in the media as the mood of the nation. But for the US to consider it credible, it must be convinced that this domestic ‘view’ is emerging independently. Beyond a point that must be difficult to swallow for the US considering how a large section of our media has turned into government mouthpieces in the past few years.  Of course, a fair and independent media is necessary for the domestic polity. But it is good for international negotiations too.India Policy Watch #2: RBI’s Tough Act Insights on burning policy issues in India- RSJThe Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of RBI met earlier this week and based on its assessment decided to change its policy stance from remaining accommodative “as long as necessary to revive and sustain growth on a durable basis” to remaining accommodative “while focusing on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation remains within the target going forward, while supporting growth”.I hope you were able to spot the change. Essentially, RBI has prepared the ground for an increase in policy rates in the second half of this year. One of my predictions for the year was that we will have a total of three policy rate hikes cumulating to 75 bps. The stage is set for that prediction to come true. Broadly, there were three messages from the MPC meeting:The input cost pressures will continue to impact the economy buffeted by global supply chain disruptions, commodity price increases and continuing uncertainty because of the war in Ukraine. RBI sharply revised its own estimate of inflation for FY 23 from 4.5 per cent to 5.7 per cent. This 120 bps increase was a belated recognition of the inflation risk in the economy with the likelihood of it breaching the 4 (+/- 2) per cent range. Once it goes beyond 6 per cent, the RBI has to explain it to the parliament. Though I don’t see why it should be such a concern if it is in lock-step with the Finance ministry and the government enjoys a brute majority in the house. But it seems like that 6 percent mark is some kind of Rubicon. That apart it made it clear that inflation control is now its chief priority over growth for the year. And that’s a big shift. My view is CPI inflation will go over 6 per cent during the year unless we see normalisation in Ukraine sooner.On growth, the RBI lowered its forecast from 7.8 per cent to 7.2 per cent for FY 23 citing a broad range of risks to it - a surge in commodity prices, hawkish policy stances in developed economies, supply-side disruptions, weakening global demand and geopolitical risks. The huge government capex cycle that was promised in the Budget isn’t going to happen in a hurry. The disinvestment proceeds have also been delayed because of the choppiness of the equity market and the big LIC IPO might happen at a more realistic and muted valuation than earlier projections. These are all weighing down the growth outlook. The good news on tax collection buoyancy, robust rural demand and a steady urban consumption trend have meant the RBI still expects the growth to come in above 7 per cent. That will be tested going forward.The liquidity in the banking system continues to be quite high (Rs. 8.5 lakh crores) and RBI was extremely careful about how it will suck this liquidity out in the future. RBI will follow a “gradual and calibrated withdrawal of this liquidity over a multi-year time frame in a non-disruptive manner”. In other words, they will stretch out this excess liquidity scenario as long as they can. RBI has been holding variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) auctions to absorb liquidity on a periodic basis while continuing with variable repo rate (VRR) auctions simultaneously to meet liquidity shortages. This ‘Operation Twist’ will continue. It has also increased the held to maturity (HTM) limit for banks from 22 per cent to 23 per cent and allowed them to have G-secs under this category. The RBI also introduced the standing deposit facility (SDF) as an uncollateralised form of reverse repo or liquidity absorption tool. What this means is that banks can now park overnight liquidity at RBI at the SDF rate of 3.75 per cent without RBI having to put G-secs as collateral into Bank accounts. In effect, the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) corridor which is the difference of rates at which RBI takes in and infuses liquidity into the banking system, is back at the pre-pandemic level of 50 bps without RBI specifically increasing the reverse repo rates. Among the numerous RBI has already adopted, these are another set of ways to support the government borrowing programme for this fiscal. In summary, for the number of economic and global variables it has to juggle while keeping the government happy that it is doing everything to support growth, the RBI has the toughest job in the country. And I will say it makes a fair fist of it.   A Framework a Week: The Three Binding Constraints on Technological ProgressTools for thinking public policy— Pranay KotasthaneIn an excellent essay for Works in Progress, Brian Potter has an interesting insight on technology governance. He writes:There’s a pattern that we frequently see in the development of a new technology. Initially, the practical functionality is limited by the technology itself – what’s built and used is close to the limit of what the technology is physically capable of doing. As the technology develops and its capabilities improve, there’s a divergence between what a technology can physically do and what it can economically do, and you begin to see commercialized versions that have lower performance but are more affordable. Then, as people begin to build within this envelope of economic possibility, capability tends to get further constrained by legal restrictions, especially if the new technology has any (real or perceived) negative externalities.A framework from microeconomics can be used to visualise this insight rather well—production possibility frontiers (PPF). A PPF curve results from trade-offs. Given finite resources, producing more goods of one kind leaves less resources on the table for another. Thus, given a fixed budget constraint, a PPF curve shows the production options available for a society. All points below a PPF curve are the available options (like points A,B, C & D in the figure), and the ones above it (like X) are unavailable due to resource constraints. What Potter’s insight adds is that we can probably imagine three distinct production possibility frontiers in technological development—economic, policy, and technological, as shown in the chart below.In the first stage of technology developlent, the technological PPF is itself a binding constraint as newly intriduced products have several bugs. In Stage 2, however, the technological PPF is no longer the binding constraint. At this point, it’s the economic PPF that sets the limits for what is producible. In the final stage, the limiting constraint is policy rather than economic or technological. Development of cryptocurrency technology is a relevant example. In the first stage, the total currency that could be churned out was limited by the technology itself. Soon enough, those constraints were overcome and a number of different currencies proliferated. The binding constraint then became economic, as mining new currencies became tougher. With more energy-efficient mechanisms such as proof-of-stake on the horizon, the binding constraint is no longer economic. Instead, it’s the policy and legal constraints that limit production.The closer the policy and economic PPFs move towards the technological PPF, the faster the technological development. At the same time, the policy PFF can be used to avoid production at the technological limits. Broadly, two approaches are available. Start with a tight policy PPF and then expand it slowly. Or start with a really loose PPF and reduce it depending on the observed negative effects. In low policy capacity situations, the latter approach offers more opportunities for growth. Easier said than done. PolicyWTF: Bihar Prohibition SagaThis section looks at egregious public policies. Policies that make you go: WTF, Did that really happen?— Pranay KotasthaneProhibition is a gift that keeps giving. Six years ago, the Bihar government criminalised the manufacturing, bottling, distribution, transportation, collection, storage, possession, purchase, sale, or consumption of alcohol. You very well know how that would’ve turned out. First, deaths due to consumption of spurious alochol became a regular occurence. Second, prohibition cases and ‘convicts’ overwhelmed the state’s already anaemic law and order machinery. Eventually, the Supreme Court issued an order in February this year, stating that:We find a number of cases coming to this Court arising from proceedings initiated under the Bihar Prohibition and Excise Amendment Act, 2018. The trial Court and the High Court are both being crowded by bail applications to an extent that at some stage 16 judges of the High Court are listening to bail matters and prosecutions under the Act concerned forms a large part of it. Denial of bail would also result in crowding of the prisons.In response, the Bihar government now proposes to amend the Prohibition Act of 2016. Instead of getting rid of prohibition, the amendment focuses narrowly on the Supreme Court’s objections. For instance, being caught the first time for drinking now attracts a penalty of Rs 2000-5000 instead of imprisonment. And to reduce the burden of cases, the bill proposes that consumption offences will be heard by executive magistrates who will be appointed by the state government especially for such offences. It seems that the Bihar government is also recruiting ‘prohibition constables’ for better enforcement.Anticipating the unintended consequences is easy. With different punishments for the first and subsequent offences, these rules will boost the Police’s rent-seeking powers. The Police will treat everyone as repeat offenders by default. On payment of an amount sufficiently greater than Rs 5000, the offence will be magically converted into a first offence, settled with a fine. Instead of focusing on Bihar’s terrible law and order situation, the Police and Executive Magistrates will take special interest in catching people for drinking alcohol. The Supreme Court’s immediate problem might well reduce but the lives of Biharis will become worse. Bihar government would do well to heed to Ambedkar’s vehement rejection of prohibition:“From the point of equity, there is no justification for prohibition. The cost of prohibition is borne by the general public. Why should the general public be made to pay the cost of reforming a lakh or two of habitual drunkards who could never be reformed ? Why should the general public be made to pay the cost of prohibition when the other wants of the public such as eduction, housing and health are crying for remedy? Why not use the money for development plans? Who has greater priority, the Drunkard or the Hungry? There are pertinent questions to which there is no answer except arrogance and obstinacy. Whatever happens, the policy of prohibition must be reversed and this colossal waste of public money should be put a stop to and the resources utilised for advancing general welfare.”Advertisement: If you enjoy the themes we discuss in this newsletter, consider taking up the Graduate Certificate in Public Policy course. Intake for the next cohort is open. 12-weeks, fully online, designed with working professionals in mind, and most importantly, guaranteed fun and learning.HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Magazine] Works in Progress is emerging as an exceptional storehouse of exceptional ideas. There are few other online spaces where the signal to noise ratio is as high.[Blog post] Yiqin Fu’s post on the unintended consequences of a mobile-first walled-garden internet on knowledge creation is an eye-opener. [Forecasting Tournament] We have written earlier about the educational value of making precise predictions. Check out the Metaculus forecasting tournament on the Ukraine conflict, and force yourself out of what Philip Tetlock calls “outcome-irrelevant learning”. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

Markets closed the 2021-2022 financial year on a strong note with frontline indices S&P BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 gaining 18 per cent and 19 per cent respectively. After markets posted a double-digit return for the second consecutive financial year, analysts expect the next 12 months to stay turbulent as higher inflation and rising interest rates cloud bourses.   Analysts believe, inflationary pressures are expected to cast a shadow on India Inc earnings this fiscal year, despite reopening of economic activity.   Corporate profitability remains at stake as companies hesitate to take price hikes. Given this, several brokerage firms have downgraded earnings outlook as companies expose themselves to increased margin pressure.   Morgan Stanley has slashed earnings growth forecast by 8 per cent for FY23. Meanwhile, Motilal Oswal too, has cut earnings estimate for automakers due to fuel price hikes. Vinod Nair of Geojit Financial Services warns margin pressure and muted consumer sentiment to lower FY23 earnings roadmap.  Moreover, with global central banks increasing interest rates, India too, will be walking a tight rope to control inflation and sustain durable growth.   The Reserve Bank of India will hold six monetary policy committee meetings in FY23, starting from April 6 to 8. Though analysts expect the central bank to defer rate hikes for the latter part of FY23, investors will watch out RBI's commentary on inflation forecast. On the other hand, after a blockbuster FY22 for the primary markets, FY23 will see over fifty companies heading to bourses to raise funds, including the much-awaited LIC IPO. That said, a section of analysts expect equities to remain a favourable bet in FY23 as markets have priced in the bad news. Manish Jain, fund manager at Ambit Asset Management believes strong rural demand and credit growth will steer markets forward.  Watch video

2021 has been an impressive year for the Indian primary markets, with highest ever fundraising in a calendar year. And the momentum could well continue in FY23.   According to a note by Prime Database, 54 companies plan to raise a massive 1.4 trillion rupees in the upcoming fiscal year, including the much awaited LIC IPO. These 54 companies already have market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India's (Sebi's) approval for raising the money. Another 43 companies, the note said, are looking to raise about 81,000 crore rupees where Sebi approval is still awaited.   The amount raised in FY22, according to Pranav Haldea, managing director, PRIME Database Group was over 3.5 times 31,268 crore rupees raised through 30 IPOs in 2020-21. The previous best year was 2017-18 (FY18) when 81,553 crore rupees was raised. According to Pranav Haldea, managing director of PRIME Database, IPOs from new-age loss-making tech startups, strong retail participation and listing gains were the other key highlights of 2021-22.  But, public equity fundraising dropped to 1.70 trillion rupees from 1.9 trillion rupees in the preceding year. The largest IPO in 2021-22, which was also the largest Indian IPO ever, was of One 97 Communications (PayTM) for 18,300 crore rupees. Some of the other prominent ones included Zomato, Star Health, PB Fintech, Sona BLW and FSN E-Commerce, the parent company of Nykaa. And retail investors were a force to reckon with. The average number of applications from the retail category was 14.05 lakh, the Prime Database report said, in comparison to 12.73 lakh in 2020-21 and 6.88 lakh in 2019-20.   The highest number of applications from retail in 2021-22 was for Glenmark Life Sciences, Devyani International and Latent View.    Going ahead, analysts expect the secondary market to remain choppy due to the geopolitical crisis between Russia and Ukraine. This, they feel, will have repercussions for the primary market activity as well.  G Chokkalingam, founder and chief investment officer at Equinomics Research, for instance, expects the Sensex to remain in the range of 56,000 to 57,000 till a solution is found for the Ukraine – Russia war. Twitter: @Pun_ditry   Watch video

The government's plan to mop up over ₹60,000 crore by selling 5% stake of Life Insurance Corporation this financial year seems to have hit a roadblock. War in Ukraine has destabilised the markets, reportedly forcing policy makers to delay the IPO of insurance behemoth LIC. What are the implications of this delay? After India's top insurer, let us find out what the country's largest lender, the State Bank of India, is upto. The bank is revamping its mobile application to turn to a complete digital bank --- which will be named ‘Only Yono'. HDFC Bank, too, is working on a similar plan. What it means for future for banking?   After the digital banks, let us move on to markets. The ongoing buyback by Tata Consultancy Services has seen record participation, with investors tendering nearly three million shares on the fourth day. Of this, retail investors have tendered up to 1.9 million shares. So, what's driving investors towards the IT giant's buyback drive and should you tender your shares too?  Advancement in technology has made financial transactions safer -- including those happening for markets. Real Time Gross Settlement or RTGS system is one such example. Introduction of RTGS has cut short the risk to high-value payment settlements among financial institutions. This system is increasingly being used by central banks worldwide. Let us know more about it in this episode of the podcast.  Watch video

Uncertainty has gripped the LIC IPO because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its impact on the markets. An official told Business Standard that the government might have to rework Life Insurance Corporation of India's valuation for its IPO if the listing is pushed beyond May. It would also impact the market value of LIC, that is currently being internally estimated at 3-4 times of the embedded value   As of 30th September, the embedded value of LIC for the April-September 2022 period is pegged at 5.4 trillion rupees. This embedded value will have to be re-evaluated if the issue is pushed beyond 12th May, as approved by the Securities and Exchange Board of India. This would impact LIC's market value, which is internally estimated to be 3-4 times the embedded value. Under such circumstances, the government would also be required to seek fresh approval from Sebi for the life insurer's IPO. The government official said that while the Centre had planned the LIC IPO for the second week of March, market volatility due to the war has delayed the proceedings. Fresh papers would have to be filed, with updated valuation of the insurer, if the listing gets pushed beyond 12th May. LIC had filed its draft red herring prospectus with Sebi on 13th February. And the markets regulator had approved it last week. Now based on Sebi's feedback and after fulfilling certain requirements, the government will soon file the red herring prospectus too. This will include both the issue size of the sale and the pricing band. The government is looking to sell 5 percent of its shares in LIC. The market is expecting the size of the issue to be about 60,000-65,000 crore rupees, valuing LIC at around 13 trillion rupees. However, the insurer's valuation would only be clear once the government files the red herring prospectus. Since the markets have been choppy, there is an apprehension that there might be a major impact on the LIC IPO. This could hurt the government's plan to raise about over 60,000 crore rupees from the IPO. Whether or not the government can carry out the initial public offering of LIC before 31st March will also have an impact on the FY22 fiscal deficit target.     The government is monitoring volatility in the market on a daily basis. The decision to launch the IPO will be taken once this volatility normalises. The government is hopeful of bringing out the IPO before May. Watch video

ट्रांजैक्शन में करीब 15 दिन का समय लगता है, और यह बात सामने आई है कि मौजूदा समय में बाजार में जारी अस्थिरता के मद्देनजर वित्त मंत्रालय का बजट डिवीजन एलआईसी आईपीओ की आय को इस वित्तीय वर्ष की गणना में शामिल नहीं कर रहा है.  ----more---- https://hindi.theprint.in/india/economy/if-modi-government-does-not-take-decision-in-day-or-two-then-lic-ipo-may-be-postponed-till-the-next-financial-year/292402/

16 मार्च से 12-14 साल के बच्चों का वैक्सीनेशन होगा, शुरू, 2 रुपए महंगी हुई मैगी, यूक्रेन से भागकर 17.5 लाख लोग पोलैंड पहुंचे, 12 मई तक आ सकता है LIC का IPO, सुनिए शाम 4 बजे की बड़ी खबरें.

In this episode, find out about SEBI's decision to clear the LIC IPO, also find out about RIL's decision to terminate lease for 835 Future Retail stores Business Term of the Day: Supply shock

फ्रांस ने भेजे यूक्रेन की मदद के लिए हथियार, भारतीय छात्रों को लेकर रवाना हुआ एयर इंडिया का विमान, LIC IPO पर कैबिनेट का आया फैसला, सुनिए शाम 4 बजे की बड़ी खबरें.

Hello friends! In today's episode we discuss the latest buzz about the upcoming LIC IPO

Hello friends! In today's episode we discuss the latest buzz about the upcoming LIC IPO

The simmering tensions between Russia and Ukraine have kept global equities under pressure for days now. Sliding for the fifth consecutive day, the BSE Sensex dropped 383 points while the Nifty50 fell 114 points to settle the day at 58,300 and 17,092 yesterday. Earlier in the day, both these indices had cracked around 1,300 point and 400 points, respectively, in intra-day trade.  The developments in Easter Europe roiled global markets as investors monitored the implications of potential sanctions against Russia, and the latter's counter-move, if any. Back home, investors have lost a chunk of their wealth as the benchmarks have skid around 1.5% so far this year.  The broader MidCap and SmallCap indices, meanwhile, have dropped up to 13% during this period. Given this, Dhananjay Sinha, managing director and chief strategist at JM Financial Institutional Securities, says retail investors should remain cautious and look at quality large-caps for now. Ambareesh Baliga, who is an independent market analyst, too, says retail investors should use any bounce back to get back into cash. That said, from a year-long perspective, Sinha says the year 2022 could be a year of flattish returns with downwards risks weighing more. And he may not be the only one with this view. Multiple headwinds in the form of Russia-Ukraine crisis, Brent crude oil price at $99 a barrel, prospects of faster-than-expected hike in rates by the global central banks and its impact on bond yields, impending state elections in India, and the fears of a rise in inflation has seen foreign brokerages recalibrate their return expectation from the markets in 2022. Thus, Jefferies has cut its December 2022 target for the Nifty50 to 17,500, which is around 3.5% higher from current levels. Its 10 mean reversion scenarios put the Nifty50 December 2022 in the range of 16,500-18,500 amid near-term risks including threat to liquidity due to LIC IPO, continued foreign selling, and a perception that the RBI might be behind the curve amidst the twin deficit concerns. BofA Securities, too, has cut its December-2022 Nifty target to 17,000 from 19,100 earlier. Thus, calendar year 2022 may give tepid returns to investors after two consecutive years of double-digit gains as outlook for the markets remains indefinite. Watch video

Q: Do you think that the global financial markets, including India, have overreacted to the likelihood of the US Fed's rate hike and the geopolitical situation with Ukraine? Ans:  >Markets tend to overreact on both sides – to the good as well as bad news >US Fed rate hike impacts global flows, especially the emerging markets >Ukraine issue is like going back to the ‘cold war' days >Markets dealing with too many headwinds and are nervous  >Seeing a healthy correction after a secular rally since March 2020   Q: Do you see more correction or are we close to bottoming out? Ans:  >FII selling is being balanced by domestic institutions buying >Key positives: Good budget, Capex spend >Markets yet to digest higher inflation possibility >Rally will resume once there is clarity on earnings impact >Market outlook: Subdued in the short-term; will pick up post Q1FY23 numbers of India Inc.   Q: Where do you see leadership emerge if the markets are to sustain and even move up from the current levels? Ans:  >Information technology >Banking & financial services (BFSI) >Capex-related plays   Q: Are the sore points? Ans:  >FMCG valuations are high; likely to underperform   Q: How big a dent can rising fuel prices and inflation cause in fiscal 2022-23 (FY23) earnings of India Inc?  Ans:  >Auto fuel prices have been constant due to impending state elections   Q: How do you think are the retail investors looking at these developments? Are they cautious now before putting in their money? >Retail investors have matured; investing via mutual funds (SIPs)   Q: What has been your investment strategy? Ans:  >Suggest looking at shorter-end of the cycle; fixed tenure products >Equity investors should pare return expectations, but remain invested   Q: Your portfolio strategy? Ans:  >Investors should not stay in cash >Not too much overweight on equities now >Investors should wait for better opportunities to enter the market   Q: Do you think the LIC IPO can be a threat to the secondary market liquidity? Ans:  >Markets will be able to absorb the IPO >Liquidity will get back to normal in a month's time post the IPO   Q: A number of new-age companies that listed recently have seen their stock price crash in the recent market correction. Have the retail investors learnt a lesson that they need to look at the fundamentals of the company, earnings outlook and not to invest purely based on the hype surrounding the IPO? Ans: >Investors got caught on the wrong foot seeing the listing gains for some issues >Investors a disappointed lot now >Fintech valuations have shrunk in India and globally >Investing in these stocks is not advisable at the current levels Watch video

The week gone by was nothing short of a roller coaster ride for equity investors. From a 3% downtick in a single day to rallying 3% the next day, the Ukraine-Russia stand-off in eastern Europe resulted in wild swings on the bourses all through the week. Overall, the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 closed with meagre weekly losses of 0.5% each after Russia reportedly withdrew some troops across the Ukrainian border. In the broader market, the BSE MidCap index fell 1.9% while the BSE SmallCap index shed 3.2%.   However, it is notable that investors – globally and in India – are adopting a risk-off approach and are looking for strategies to minimise losses amid choppy markets.   While Dow Jones has corrected 4% and Nasdaq has dropped 5% thus in February, the frontline S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 have gained around 0.25% and 0.2%, respectively.   Despite this, there are nine stocks that gained between 15% and 20% in February. Of these, four counters - Blue Star, RHI Magnesia India, Schneider Electric Infrastructure and Elgi Equipments soared over 20% during this period, data show.  This week, analysts expect volatility to continue in line with global peers, as the geo-political uncertainty, volatile crude oil prices and monthly F&O expiry are likely to weigh on the market sentiment. Besides, there are hosts of other events lined up in the next few weeks in the form of the big-ticket LIC IPO, the assembly election, and the implementation of the new margin system, which will lend incremental volatility to the markets.   Milind Muchhala, who is Executive Director at Julius Baer says, “These interim corrections can present a good opportunity to gradually build-up on the equity exposure, as we continue to believe that the earnings momentum will remain a key support for the market. Our preferred sectors include domestic cyclicals such as Financials, Industrials and Infra, Building Material and Auto, while we would also be positively biased on consumption (especially discretionary), Healthcare, IT (on corrections) and select names on bottom-up basis.”  Technically, the 50-share Nifty is expected to move within 16,750 and 17,620 zone, with support placed at 16,920. The Sensex index, meanwhile, will seek support at 57,000 level and could trade in the range of 56,450 and 59,150. Watch video

PolicyWTF: Band-aids for Bullet WoundsThis section looks at egregious public policies. Policies that make you go: WTF, Did that really happen? - Pranay KotasthaneThe ongoing political crisis in Ukraine has a small sub-plot that links to India’s education policy self-goals. Before the current crisis unfolded, I had heard that Russia and Ukraine were popular destinations for aspiring medical students from India. What I didn’t know was how big this cohort is in Ukraine. Multiple news reports claim that there are nearly 18,000 of them in Ukraine alone. Apparently, Indian medical students are also opting to study in Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Kyrgyzstan besides Russia and Ukraine. Of course, these students are merely responding to incentives. Commonly understood reasons for students taking up courses outside India are the limited number of seats in government medical colleges, and higher costs in private medical colleges. Ask anyone about MBBS education in India, and they will launch into a tirade about how the “commercialisation” of medical education has turned it unaffordable.But as readers of this newsletter would know, price is just a signal of the underlying market conditions. And so, fixing prices cannot be done by price-fixing. In this particular case, higher prices are due to the low supply of undergraduate medical seats. Apparently, 88,120 seats are on offer every year. For reference, there were 2,86,000 undergraduate seats in China. A good 40 per cent of these seats are in government colleges where the fee is subsidised by the taxes Indian citizens pay, while the remaining 60 per cent are in private colleges where the fee can range from ₹18 lakhs to ₹30 lakhs a year. The demand outstrips the supply by quite a margin and hence the high prices. Had the market for seats been liquid, many more colleges should have sprung up and brought the prices down. Since there are nearly 600 colleges in India now, collusion by all of them can be ruled out. But clearly, this hasn’t happened, for two reasons.One, unreasonable restrictions for setting up medical colleges. Until 2019, the regulatory authority for this sector was the Medical Council of India (MCI), an organisation that regulated both medical education and practice. Run by doctors, increasing the supply of doctors wasn’t their highest priority. After all, which beneficiary wants to reduce the “elite-quality” of their professions? Setting up a college meant pleading with this regulator and complying with their conditions like owning 20 acres of land and running an attached hospital. Colleges had to justify their student intake and were evaluated on the basis of things like the size of the “auditorium-cum-examination” hall, classroom sizes, and of course the student fees. In short, all the perverse incentives dutifully put together to create a rent-seeking apparatus par excellence. Corruption rose. Only politicians who could stare down the regulator risked starting new colleges, and the rest stayed away. Two, the existing medical colleges are dwarfs. In recent times, the number of medical colleges per se has increased handsomely, albeit from a low base. In a Lok Sabha reply, the union health ministry said that 132 medical colleges in the government sector and 77 medical colleges in the private sector have been approved by the NMC/MCI since 2014, an increase of 72 per cent since 2013. However, the intakes of these colleges continue to remain low. While the number of undergraduate medical seats in China are nearly 3.5 times those in India, the former has far fewer medical colleges — 420 (2018 figure) as against India’s 596 (2021 figure). So, India now has the largest number of medical colleges in the world and yet isn’t producing nearly enough doctors. The private colleges that pick up the gauntlet prefer to stay small rather than grow. The reason: regulations disincentivise scale. If you were to visit the webpage for starting a new college, you will find five different compliance categories. Depending on whether you admit 50, 100, 150, 200, or 250 students, the regulatory requirements keep scaling up. All the rules mentioned in the previous point — such as hospital seats, number of examination halls — need to increase correspondingly for the student intake to increase. Those who can, set up another college instead. Those who don’t, are conservative with the student intake. And of course, what is regulation without a price cap! Fees for 50 per cent of the seats in private colleges are capped. There are only so many people in the other 50 per cent who will cross-subsidise the rest. Even 10 per cent of seats going vacant dents profits significantly. So, colleges prefer doing laghu-udyog.And so, we continue to regret that India falls way below the WHO-recommended target for doctor density. Despite the miserable status quo, the policy community in this sector is unable to confront the trade-offs. Most people think the solution is simple — the union government must establish more medical colleges. They discount the fact that the size of the problem goes beyond the capacity of the government — fiscal and administrative. Enlisting the support of the market is necessary for India to have a shot at meeting the doctor deficit. There are a few solutions that go against the grain. Dr Devi Shetty recommends introducing undergraduate medical education in private hospitals using a problem-based learning approach. The government has also suggested a two-year bridge course for AYUSH doctors. Whatever the merits or flaws with these solutions, it is difficult to budge the policy orthodoxy. Like for farming and defence services, debates on healthcare professionals acquire moralising undertones quickly — “commercialisation” becomes evil and economic reasoning is deemed inapplicable. The fear of a poorly trained doctor misdiagnosing patients is used to dead bat any solution for liberalising medical education. Addressing this concern requires strengthening the regulation of medical practice, not smothering medical education. And so, we continue to be stuck with the status quo. Second-order effects follow. The scarcity of seats generates a huge demand for coaching institutes that can help crack entrance exams, further increasing costs for students. Some states opt out of entrance exams unable to fix the underlying scarcity. The problem doesn’t go away.If we are serious about changing the status quo, a radical liberalisation of medical education in India is the only option. The problem of ‘bad’ commercialisation can only be solved by more liberalisation. All other solutions are akin to putting a band-aid on a bullet wound.(Thanks to three friends who understand the healthcare sector much better than me. Mistakes are all mine.)India Policy Watch: Public Ka PaisaInsights on burning policy issues in India— RSJPublic finance is complex to understand. How the government earns revenue, what principles it follows to allocate its funds among various constituents that are fair and productive, how it distributes its surpluses etc. The list is long. All sorts of frameworks are used to figure this out. Pranay has often written on this topic in previous editions.A more fundamental question on public finance that doesn’t get covered is this. Who does the money belong to? I mean, of course, it belongs to the government. But where did it get this money from, to begin with? I guess the simplistic answer is it earned money from providing services to its citizens and taxing them for it. Then it built up the surplus, invested the money in creating assets that generate good returns, improved the productivity of the citizens that in turn helped in increasing revenues and this continues nicely so long as it keeps its expenses below its revenues. As we see all around this isn’t as easy for any government. Over time it spends more than it earns and creates a deficit. Then it goes into debt to bridge this gap. If that isn’t forthcoming, it prints more money. All of which is like taking a loan from future generations. And this sort of a giant Ponzi scheme of borrowing fresh money to pay past debt continues. Someone will be left holding the can in distant future. But who cares. All this is quite intuitive. What’s the point of this preamble, you might ask? Well, the two topics I cover today are related to this. In one instance, there was quite surprisingly no “can” to hold for future generation for previous government’s excesses. Instead, there was a prize. So, if the future generations usually hold the can, do they also hold on to the prize in the rare event they get that? We’ll see how that goes. The other case is about where’s inflation in India? And how will the government meet its borrowing targets for the new fiscal?Your Friendly Neighborhood LIC Agent To begin, consider this. You live in a nice, middle-class neighbourhood (the real middle class, not the gated variety). One of these days a nice, dependable sort of young man arrives. He’s a do-gooder sort. He helps with community issues, plays with the kids, tutors them in his spare time - you get the picture. A couple of years later he claims he can help manage your savings. He is open and transparent on how he will do this in a prudent and conservative manner. He will take money from people in the neighbourhood, pool all the funds together and he will invest it. He will earn a 5 per cent commission on whatever surplus he generates for you. You have seen such charlatans before so you’re careful. But you know this nice man. You have come to trust him so all of you decide to give part with some of your savings. Turns out he is true to his word. He takes a small part of your savings and he keeps investing it every year. He is good at his job. He gives you a stable return. Not spectacular but you never lost any money. He’s a safe pair of hands who delivers. Every year. This goes on. Not for one, two or three years. But say for 60 years. He is that one dependable presence in your lives. Though much older now. He now has a huge pooled fund that he manages. He keeps distributing modest and stable returns every year. But after giving all of you those returns, there’s a large surplus that’s sitting with him. How did that happen? Well, there are reasons. He’s been conservative in how much return he gives you when the times are good because he thinks there might be tough times in future. Indeed, there were a few bad years in between. But they were never as bad as he had anticipated. So, over time that corpus gets built up. Also, many who invested at the beginning are no more. Their kids have left the country. They haven’t come back to claim the money. Others have left the neighbourhood and probably forgotten they made a small investment all those years ago. You get the picture. This old man is now sitting on a large amount that’s unclaimed by anyone. But he’s 85 now. He wants to sell this business to someone, hand over a tidy sum to his daughters and retire to the Himalayas. So, here’s the question: how should he treat that large unclaimed amount? Should he:a) distribute this unclaimed amount to all his current and past customers who have helped build his business over the years? After all, these customers took the risk of investing with him and the upside should be theirs. It is their money as a group. Or,b) add this unclaimed amount to the regular business that he’s selling to new owners. Why? Because this is the upside of him doing the hard work of running this business and giving steady returns over so many years. Nobody should grudge him this because he’s never defaulted on any of his promises. Whatever remains after that is his. So, he takes the sale proceeds for himself and retires.Or, c) keep the unclaimed amount as-is. Tell the new owner this is a separate amount and this has to be kept the same way for a rainy day in future. This is a conservative option but this doesn’t solve the problem of the unclaimed amount. It only kicks it down the road. Now, read this:“State-owned insurance company LIC filed its Draft Red-Herring Prospectus (DRHP) on Sunday. Noteworthy among the risk factors mentioned by the corporation was the splitting of the single ‘Life Fund’ into participatory and non-participatory funds. This will, however, have a positive impact on LIC’s valuations as it approaches the primary market.Let us start with participatory and non-participatory policies. Under a participatory policy, a policyholder can get a share of the profits of the company. This is received as a bonus. Examples of such products offered by LIC include Jeevan Labh and Bachat Plus. No such sharing of profits happens under non-participatory products, which under the LIC fold includes policies such as Saral Pension and  Nivesh Plus.As all insurance companies do, LIC also reinvests premium monies that policyholders pay. The profits or surplus that comes about as a result was till September last year held in one single fund. This was the Life Fund. The surplus was divided in the 95:5 ratio between policyholders (in the form of bonuses) and shareholders (which is the Government, in the form of dividends).”In summary, LIC is that dependable old man.It is a state-owned company that’s over 60 years old. It has been selling investment products (with a small insurance component) to its customers and it has built up a surplus pool. In one surplus pool (participatory policies), the profit is shared between the policyholders (customers) and LIC’s owner (Government of India) in the ratio of 95:5. In another pool (non-participatory policies), the surplus need not be shared between the shareholders and policyholders. Why? Because here LIC promises some kind of guarantees to customers on their investment and so long as that is met, the surplus belongs to shareholders. And in the same way, if the guarantees were not to be met, the government would have had to pay from its pocket to meet the obligations. So, the risk and rewards are symmetric. Through an amendment now the government (owner of LIC) has decided the entire accumulated surplus pool sitting with it can be transferred to this non-participatory pool. That’s one move. This move then enables the government as a shareholder of LIC to transfer that surplus to shareholders; current and future. And apart from this transfer, it appears LIC has valued the equity component of this surplus (that is the part that’s invested in shares of public companies) at the current market value. In finance speak, the equity component of the surplus has been marked-to-market.    How much is this surplus pool and where has it come from? Well, LIC has run for over 60 years. Customers have left without taking their money, some have died and no one has claimed the amount and LIC has been prudent in paying out annual returns to its customers and building a surplus for a rainy day ahead. How much is this amount that LIC has transferred to the book that’s now attributable to the shareholders? Around ₹4 trillion or ₹4 lakh crores. That’s what it looks like. Mind you, there’s nothing illegal here. There’s an amendment made and it is perfectly fine to then transfer the surplus to shareholders after that. And it is also fine to mark-to-market the equity component.But then we go back to the original set of three questions I raised about the old man’s business. Now ask them for LIC. Should it:a) distribute this unclaimed amount to all their customers who have helped build LIC’s business over the years? After all, the customers have taken the risk of investing with them and the upside should be theirs.b) claim this unclaimed amount to itself and its shareholders. It becomes a useful tool to sell its IPO as an attractive proposition. Nobody should grudge them this because they have never defaulted on any of their promises. This is the upside of them running the business and giving steady returns over so many years. c) keep the unclaimed amount as-is. Tell the new shareholders this is a separate amount and this has to be kept the same way. This is a safe option but this doesn’t solve the problem of the unclaimed amount. It only kicks it down the road. The answer based on the LIC IPO is b).I don’t know if there’s a right answer here. But I have a feeling many policyholders may ask why not a)? It goes back to that question that’s not often asked in public finance. Whose money is it to start with?That brings me to the other point I wanted to cover. Where Is Inflation? We had the inflation prints of January come for India and the US last week. For the first time in over 30 years, we now have five consecutive months where US consumer inflation is higher than that of India. The US reported a consumer price inflation (CPI) of 7.5 per cent for January ‘22 while the corresponding number for India was 6 per cent. It looks like this trend will continue for the entire year. So, what should we make of this? I mean leaving aside the usual chest-thumping in some quarters on how this shows the current government is managing the economy better than the Biden administration. There are five key points for us to consider.One, the US inflation is being driven by three factors. The huge fiscal stimulus they gave their economy during the pandemic. Broad estimates suggest the total stimulus was about 25 per cent of the US economy. This has meant significant liquidity in the system. That coupled with supply chain bottlenecks that still afflict the global trade system and an almost full employment scenario means there’s more money chasing fewer goods in the US. Housing prices are high, petrol prices have gone up and consumption is up by 10 per cent last year. So, inflation. The Fed (US central bank) has no option but to raise interest rates to make money ‘costlier’ and reduce the liquidity in the system. Not taming inflation will hurt the Biden government politically. And like we have often said before, inflation is the worst kind of tax on the poor.Two, the inflation outlook of the RBI in India is fairly benign. They expect it to be about 4.5 per cent next year. What explains this? Beyond all other rhetoric, the problem in India is demand. Private consumption which has been the primary driver of the Indian economy in the past decade is still at pre-pandemic levels. People aren’t spending enough. Maybe because their incomes aren’t growing and that’s because the economy isn’t really growing at a macro level. So, all the song and dance about stock markets, unicorns and wage inflation among techies aside, the aggregate numbers tell us we aren’t spending enough. And this despite the supply chain bottlenecks and higher liquidity environment that we are in which should lead to inflation in usual circumstances. Three, because of this the RBI doesn’t want to cut rates. The RBI came out with a very ‘dovish’ outlook in the MPC that concluded last week. Behind all the technical jargon, the message was this. We aren’t growing fast enough and we see the ‘recovery’ after the pandemic tapering off soon. The RBI spoke of the multiple indicators that suggest a slowing down of momentum in post-pandemic recovery - sale of automobiles, tractors, capital goods and fall in purchasing manager’s index (PMI) scores, all leading indicators of economic activity. So, RBI will continue to be as accommodating as possible to spur growth. RBI believes it is not behind the curve on this while most of the market thinks otherwise. The broader point about the recovery being weak and ‘k-shaped’ has been made in our past editions multiple times. There’s an underlying weakness in the economy that has to be addressed by first acknowledging and then working on it. Four, there’s a scenario in the next six months where the RBI will continue to hold interest rates in India while the US may have multiple rate hikes that could add up to between 75-100 bps (100 bps = 1 per cent). This means the gap between interest rates in India and the US will come down materially. Usually, this means spillover and volatility risks of the dollars flowing out of India and hurting the INR exchange rate. The RBI seems to be comfortable that it has healthy forex reserves, a narrow current account deficit and continued inbound investment flow that can cushion this risk. We will have to see how long this comfort lasts. Finally, the RBI has a task on its hand to manage this huge borrowing plan, remaining dovish to not scuttle even the weak recovery on hand while managing the risk of a narrower rate differential between India and the US. And the government has to find ways to service the ever-increasing interest burden of its debt while staying on course for the ambitious capex plan it has laid out. The borrowing programme based on the budget presented is to the tune of Rs. 15 lac crores in the coming year. Managing this requires a lot of skill. Whatever it does, there will be more debt in its books. That brings us back to that question again. Who is footing the bill for this? Whose money is it?Matsyanyaaya: Aap Hamaare Hain Kaun, Russia?Big fish eating small fish = Foreign Policy in action— Pranay KotasthaneAs Russia-Ukraine tensions threaten to reorder international arrangements, the question Aap Hamaare Hain Kaun, Russia? has gained renewed importance. “What does a worsening relationship between Russia and the West means for India’s strategic autonomy” has been a theme that’s dominated the mental bandwidth of India’s strategic community over the past month. The choice for India should be obvious. If it has to pick between the US and Russia, the convergence with the US on all three parameters — interests, values, and capacities — far outweighs Russia’s importance to India. Yet, three objections persist.The first argument is that a strong relationship with Russia is necessary for India’s strategic autonomy. Without this partnership, the fear is that India will become a mere pawn in the hands of the US. I vehemently disagree. Strategic autonomy is a function of power. And to gain more power, it's better to partner with a stronger partner who can build your capability. Even if it leads to a loss of tactical autonomy, it is better than betting on a weaker partner like Russia. To side with Russia just for the sake of proving one’s independent credentials is the precise opposite of ‘strategic’ thinking. Rajesh Rajagopalan puts it bluntly here.“The argument that India’s strategic autonomy requires it to maintain high levels of political and defence relations with Russia is particularly thoughtless. Strategic autonomy is an objective of foreign policy, not a doctrine. As an objective, the question to ask is — which policy helps increase India’s strategic autonomy? In a complex international environment, for a relatively weak power, the answer requires picking among bad, unappetising choices.A China-dominated Asian order, which will be the consequence of Moscow’s efforts to undermine the US, can hardly be conducive to India’s strategic autonomy. Refusing to deal with the deepening chasm in India-Russia relations will not make it go away, it will only make the fall that much harder.”The second objection is even more ideological. The old guard in the strategic community of India has a soft spot for Russia. Soviet Union helped India in the 1971 war while the US backed Pakistan, and Russia has been a reliable partner through thick and thin for India, while the US hasn’t, are the arguments put forward in support of this line of thinking.I again disagree. To explain why, consider this initial framework for assessing the reliability in international relations. This framework assigns reliability perceptions based on the impact of state X’s actions on India’s interests. Each quadrant assigns binary labels to the state based on its chosen strategy.The strictest condition for reliability is when a state takes a self-harming action in India’s interest (lower-right quadrant). For many, the Soviet Union met this criterion by deploying destroyers and submarines in the Bay of Bengal to ward off the US Task Force 74 during the 1971 war. What’s forgotten is that four months before the war, India and the USSR had signed an Indo–Soviet Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation. India had effectively allied with the USSR. USSR’s actions were thus at best reliable in a much looser sense (upper-right and lower-left quadrants). We should get over this fiction of Russia being India’s super-reliable partner. Especially in today’s situation when it is a much weaker partner heavily dependent on India’s foremost adversary.The third objection is a realistic one. Since India is heavily dependent on Russia’s weapon systems, it cannot let the relationship worsen in the short term. I agree with this framing. While the short-term options are limited, the immediate implication is two-fold. One, diversify the trade relationship with Russia so that India can deter Russia’s denial of access to defence equipment by quid-pro-quo. Two, reduce dependence on Russia by buying from partners with whom India has a broader partnership. This is a point Nitin Pai has made for many years. In his words:The fundamental challenge remains that our relations with Russia are massively concentrated on defence trade. It is best to purchase defence equipment from a country with whom we have broad and deep trade relations; failing which, to try and build such relations with the country we’re buying arms from. Russia falls into the latter category. Yet, bilateral trade has remained around $10 billion for years, with the balance being in Russia’s favour. India trades more with Venezuela, Belgium and South Africa.In short, Russia is important to India for an instrumental purpose alone. No permanent friends, only permanent interests, and all that.HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Video] Pavan Srinath on the need to liberalise medical education[Articles] Read these two opposing viewpoints in ThePrint on India-Russia relationship by Rajesh Rajagopalan and Andrew Korybko.[Article] How we fixed the Ozone Layer, by Hannah Ritchie for Works in Progress is fodder for a solutionist. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

In this episode I am explaining the market of the insurance and whether one should invest in LIC IPO or not?

In today's episode for 19th February 2022, we take a quick look at the LIC IPO

क्या अमेरिका यूक्रेन को रूस से बचाना चाहता है या इस विवाद में उसके अपने हित छिपे हैं? बीजेपी क्यों असम फ़ॉर्मूले पर लड़ रही मणिपुर चुनाव? हिन्दू पोलराइज़ेशन का प्रभाव मुस्लिम वोटर्स पर पड़ता है? LIC के IPO को लेकर कौन से प्वाइंट्स पर लोगों की आपत्ति है? सुनिए 'आज का दिन' अमन गुप्ता के साथ.

After two years of painstaking preparation, the government on Sunday finally approached SEBI to sell 5% stake in Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) through Initial Public Offering. It expects to collect close to Rs 60,000 crore through this move -- a sum which will help the government meet its disinvestment target and bridge its fiscal deficit which is widening due to an increased infrastructure push. Find out more about the IPO of the country's largest insurer and also if it is the right time to go public. Another promising IPO may also hit the primary markets soon. Though not as huge as LIC, the IPO of business-to-business e-commerce platform Udaan has all the potential to impress investors. In conversation with Business Standard's Nivedita Mookerji, Udaan's co-founder and its newly-appointed CEO Vaibhav Gupta tells us about his firm's IPO plans and how was the Union Budget for the start-up universe. After the IPOs and primary market, let us move on to the secondary market. Sensex tanked over 1,700 points on Monday amid global sell off. Foreign institutional investors, or FIIs, are the backbone of Indian equity markets. Over the past few months, they have been on a selling spree across most emerging markets, including India. What's making them nervous, and will the trend reverse? Take a dive into how FIIs are viewing India as an investment destination amid rising headwinds. After primary and secondary markets, let's turn to entertainment. Ajay Devgn on Monday stirred a debate by saying that actors' move towards OTT platforms “was more about finding the right subject” rather than the pandemic. Find out more about OTT platforms and regulations that govern it in this episode of the podcast.  Watch video

Q1: What is going to be the government's priority for divest in the current fiscal year?  Ans: IPO of Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) is govt's priority in the current fiscal  LIC IPO is going to be the largest in the history of the Indian stock market Plan to complete sale of Neelachal Ispat Nigam Limited (NINL)  Privatisation of Bharat Earth Movers Limited (BEML), Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) would be taken forward   Q2: What's going to be the priority for next year? You have a conservative target of Rs 65,000 cr for next year. What are you looking to divest and privatise?  Ans:  Govt has rationalised its accounting targets While targets are in accounting terms, many disinvestment receipts do not reach the govt at the end of transactions, instead as dividends  The philosophy: Divestment of minority stake at the opportune time  Govt aims to conclude its privatisation mandate over the next 20 yrs time  Watch video

In this episode, find out why Anil Agarwal is looking merger Vedanta with Indian unit, also find out why OPEC countries agreed to increase crude output. Business Term of the Day: Capital expenditure

LIC IPO is supposed to be India's biggest-ever public issue. The government plans to sell anywhere between 5-10% stake in the insurer, which could fetch it around Rs 1 lakh crore.----more----Read the article here: https://theprint.in/theprint-essential/the-lic-story-history-valuation-why-its-ipo-indias-biggest-matters-for-modi-govt/813475/

With the Tata's acquiring Air India and LIC being listed, India's political economy may see some changes. In episode 927 of #CutTheClutter, Shekhar Gupta looks at some of the most significant steps taken in India's economic and industrial sector that have shaped the economy as we know it today.

What can we learn from the OCBC phishing scam? Is China doing the right thing by cutting rates to stabilise the yuan? Will India’s LIC IPO be a big win? And what do the new MAS rules mean for crypto advertising? Michelle Martin gets the lowdown from Arun Pai, Chief Strategy Officer, FLOW.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

India Policy Watch: Prediction TimeInsights on burning policy issues in India— RSJHappy New Year! This is a time of hope, optimism and new beginnings. But 2022 has signalled it has no time for such niceties. It is already hitting high notes on all kinds of wrong metrics - peak COVID-19 positivity rates, deeper social polarisation and dangerous levels of toxicity on social media. And it is only the first week. Maybe 2022 intends to get all the bad news out early and then coast on calm waters. That’s the hope. Hope, like Andy Dufresne taught us, is a good thing; maybe the best of things. We write this newsletter because we are hopeful about the future. We believe we can make an impact, however small, on the demand side of the policy equation. That making people aware of policy choices and helping them anticipate the unintended will lead to a change in the supply side of politics. There are two preconditions for this to happen which we have assumed to hold true. One, people have time and mental space available for discussions that matter to their lives. Two, a belief we can arrive at what’s good for us through those debates and discussions. But there are days when you wonder if these hold. The cacophonous noise on issues of identity, validity and nationalism drowns all other conversations. There’s no conceding of ground regardless of the merits of an issue. Any factoid that questions your existing hypothesis isn’t seen as worthy of contemplation. The more perceptive might register a mild dissonance. Instead, you wait for your side to dig out a counter that reconfirms your bias and negates the dissonance. Politics is often considered to be performative for the audience that’s the electorate. Now, the audience has donned the makeup and is declaiming on stage. The possibility of consensus on what’s good is increasingly remote. And once you are in this territory, the public part of public policy goes out of the window. Whatever remains then is no different from a fiat. But then hope is a good thing. And so we begin the new year with hope. Like those last lines from The Great Gatsby:“...tomorrow we will run faster, stretch out our arms farther…And one fine morning- So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.”Like last year, we start with that timeless lazy way to fill pages during this time of the year. Here is my random list of predictions for 2022.Economy#1: It will be more of the same for India on growth, inflation and fiscal deficit. Factoring in the Covid base effect, we will be in the 5-5.5 per cent growth range (if you take the base of FY 21). Inflation (CPI) will be around 5 per cent with an occasional jump to 6 per cent during the year despite threatening to go out of control. Maybe three interest rate hikes (a total of 75 bps) during the year will keep a lid on it. Public markets will moderate a bit (around 10 percent upside). Private market valuations will continue to be in bubble territory. There’s a lot of liquidity that’s already raised and ready to be deployed for start-ups. China won’t attract it as it will continue to go down the path of self-reliance and its notion of an equal society. So, expect even more than the $36 billion that flowed into startups in 2021. There will be more gushing commentary on the Indian entrepreneurial energy. That will be appropriated to show how well the economy is doing. The money flowing for Indian startups is good news, of course. But it cannot be the only metric to determine the health of the economy. The divergence between the formal and informal economy and the K-shaped recovery that we have written about (“Two Indias”) will continue.#2: There won’t be much to write about reforms. Some attempts at piecemeal MSP reforms will be attempted to make up for the repealed farm laws. The National Monetisation Pipeline will get going but the progress will be modest. A couple of more disinvestment proposals of PSUs (including banks) will be taken up. But this will be for raising revenues rather than a planned strategy to make PSUs market competitive. The LIC IPO will just go over the line and that will be the big event to showcase reforms. All of this doesn't mean we will be short of big announcements about reforms or intention to reform.Politics#1: BJP election machine will continue its winning run barring the odd defeats in Punjab and Goa. The big prize, UP, will be fought hard but BJP will win a safe majority. The bahujan vote of the depleted BSP will shift to it more than to SP and that will make all the difference. By the end of the year, there will be a more formal coming together of regional parties as opposition. Some sort of a “front” will be formalised.#2: There will be a split in the Congress. The party in its current form is untenable and beyond a point, there will be nothing to lose for those who split it. The key question is who will lead it - those who have a political base and think Congress leadership is a liability that cannot be carried along any further, or those without a political base but with strong ideological opposition to the BJP. My guess is it will be the latter. In any case, it won’t make much of a difference.Society #1: Demographic anxiety is now a thing in Indian society. The desire to address it or to be seen to address it will animate much of our social discourse. Expect love jihad and anti-conversion laws in various states, some kind of population control bill, a revival of CAA and a push for a uniform civil code during the year. There’s that early 20th century Europe playbook of stoking demographic anxiety that plays on a threat to the survival of a civilisation or a way of living. The pitch will be queered on this. Indian society is a fertile ground for it. This land can be shown to its people as a palimpsest. But it can, perhaps more easily, be shown as a glorious, ancient civilisation that’s been asphyxiated for centuries by ‘outsiders’. A true revival of it requires setting the past records straight and the right demographic arithmetic. That’s the view and it is open season for this. There will be more performative gestures that will be broadcast as reclaiming of that civilisation. #2: The last week saw the mainstreaming of the ‘trads’ and ‘raitas’ nomenclature. If you don’t know about this sharp distinction that’s emerging within the right-wing, here’s a short introduction to it. We have written in the past Schmitt’s ‘friend-enemy’ distinction in politics. Politics is driven by the idea of having an enemy; the other. For much of the last decade, this was the left-liberal cabal (Lutyens, Khan market, NYT, Soros, Amnesty etc). Even when much of news and propaganda came to be dominated by the right-wing, there was a strawman of this all-powerful cabal of anti-nationals that was kept alive because the notion of an enemy is critical. But once you have decimated it, what do you do? You look for the enemy within. That’s what trads versus raitas is all about. It isn’t a surprise really. This is something I discussed in Amit Varma’s podcast last February.  Miscellaneous#1: There will be serious big tech regulations that will come into play in America. Others will follow suit. India will have a version of this along with dollops of atmanirbharta. This will mean some tough days for big consumer tech giants in India.#2: China will struggle for growth. Demographics, debt and delusion have come together in China in a way that will make it difficult for it to sustain growth. China-Russia relationship will get stronger with their support for each other and for other authoritarian regimes around the world. #3: Meta, Crypto, Decentralisation, NFT (and everything else pumped up by the Valley tech bros) will see their hype abate (about 25-30 percent drop in asset value). When John Terry starts buying Bored Ape NFTs, you know the whole thing has jumped the shark. About time too. Global Policy Watch: A Season of Industrial PoliciesBringing an Indian perspective to burning global issues— Pranay KotasthaneOn December 29, the union government issued guidelines for another production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme, this time for textiles. In all, there are thirteen sectors — from electronics to steel — where PLI schemes are under various stages of execution. We had given such schemes the full Anticipating the Unintended treatment in edition #86. In this edition, I want to step back and review the merits and demerits of industrial policies, of which PLI is a specific variant. What’s an Industrial Policy?Scott Lincicome of the Cato Institute has a neat definition. Industrial policies are“targeted and directed government interventions intended to achieve specific, market‐​beating industrial and commercial outcomes within national borders. The specificity of these targeted interventions is what makes them different from other kinds of broader, more general interventions.”In contrast, broader pro-market policies that are not sector-specific such as reducing corporate tax rates, reducing import duties, simplifying labour laws and making land acquisition easier are not categorised as industrial policies. Why Should You Care?Industrial policies are all the rage today and not just in India. Industrial policies never went in demand really. The theory of change behind industrial policies is enticingly simple: “to get an uncompetitive business sector of yours to grow, subsidise investment in that sector over the next few years out of taxpayer money.” And as you can imagine, industrial policies are quick-fix solutions that any policymaker would love. So, one or the other industrial policy solution is always cooking in government departments regardless of the sector and the country.The reason why such policies are now getting concurrent attention worldwide is because of one reason: China. With all the talk of reducing dependence on Chinese technology and manufacturing firms, entire sectors are being deemed as “strategic” across countries. And once a sector gets termed as strategic, a “strategic” industrial policy is never far away. And so, the US, EU, India, and China itself, are all launching a spate of new incentive schemes to reshore manufacturing and technology firms. Do Industrial Policies Work?They are popular, alright. But are industrial policies effective? In this section, I’ll review some arguments for and against them. Batting for industrial policy, albeit in the American context, Steven K Vogel declares in a Niskanen Center paper that industrial policy is both imperative and inevitable going ahead. His argument is that all critical goals of the future — reducing carbon emissions, mitigating climate change, and strengthening supply chain resilience — would be unachievable without targeted government support. And that achieving these goals cannot be left to private firms because of three reasons. One, only the government can formulate national missions. Two, the private sector is bound to underinvest in R&D due to positive externalities. And three, only government can resolve coordination or network failures. Batting against industrial policies are people at the Cato Institute (of course). Their paper Industrial Policy: A Bad Idea Is Back is a searing critique of industrial policies due to four reasons that block success.One, centralised attempts to pick winning critical technologies are more likely to fail as the government does not know it all. Even when the government picks up the right industries for support, it often ends up picking up the wrong products and companies.Two, as you can guess, targeted support enables rent-seeking. Companies that get government backing block competition and seek to mould the scheme for their own benefits rather than policy objectives. Costs balloon, performance falters, bailouts get demanded, and political considerations become paramount. Three, industrial policies come at an immense cost to society. Besides the “seen” cost overruns, there are “unseen” opportunity costs, misallocation of resources, and deadweight losses due to higher tariffs. Finally, industrial policies don’t pick winners but it’s winners that pick industrial policies. This means even in sectors where such policies created a few successful companies, “government support mostly went to companies that could have obtained private funding or produced outcomes that the market could have provided (and did previously without government assistance)”.Where Does That Leave Us?From an Indian perspective, I want to amplify two concerns about industrial policies. First, as the previous section suggests, the real problem with industrial policies is in their design and implementation. Vogel argues that one can get industrial policy ‘right’ by doing three things: set clear priorities, deploy the appropriate policy tools; and structure government institutions to limit political capture and maximize policy effectiveness. Each of them requires high state capacity. While the first two can be still resolved as they are not transaction-intensive, a lack of adequate regulatory capacity to prevent companies from gaming the system is a big challenge in India.Second, the opportunity cost argument is especially important for a 2000$ per capita income economy. Given that every rupee of revenue raised by the government costs three rupees to the Indian society, industrial policies are by default expensive instruments. Reflecting on both sides of the argument, my current position is that industrial policies should be deployed very selectively, in sectors that are uber-strategic or where Indian companies enjoy a comparative advantage globally. For example, I would support an industrial policy for building a speciality semiconductor fab in India but I would oppose one that attempts to make display panels in India. Reducing import dependence from China cannot be the driving reason to shower billions of dollars for as many as thirteen sectors. We shouldn’t forget that incentive schemes are finally band-aid solutions. They might create a few national champions but to eliminate the cost disabilities lakhs of Indian companies face, there is no alternative to improving tax, business, intellectual property, and trade regimes. Post Script: Industrial Policies for SemiconductorsThe union government launched four schemes worth a total of $10billion to build a semiconductor and display ecosystem in India. I’ve given these policies the Anticipating the Unintended treatment here and here.To understand the European Union’s perspective on industrial policies in this sector, I spoke with Mathieu Duchâtel in an episode for the All Things Policy Podcast. * from Emily Dickinson’s “Hope” is the thing with feathersHomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Book] Diana L. Eck’s 2012 masterpiece India - A Sacred Geography challenges the notion that the Indian “nation” was a project born in response to colonial occupation. [Paper] Questioning Industrial Policy: Why Government Manufacturing Plans Are Ineffective and Unnecessary is an insightful read.[Article] Noah Smith on “Six reasons 2021 was a better year than people think” If you find the content here useful, consider taking a deep dive into the world of public policy. Takshashila’s PGP — a 48-week certificate course will allow you to learn public policy analysis from the best practitioners, academics, and teachers. And that too, while you continue to work. In other words, the opportunity costs are low and the benefits are life-changing. Do check out. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

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Top headlines • Sensex falls for a second day, down 314 pts; Nifty ends below 17,900 • Tata Motors hits over 5-year high on healthy demand outlook • Cabinet approves Rs 6,466-crore fund for telecom infra • LIC IPO expected by Q4, says DIPAM Secretary • Go Fashion IPO sails through on first day After moving in a tight range for the better part of the day, the key benchmark indices ended near the day's low for a second straight session on Wednesday. The BSE Sensex dropped to a low of 59,945, before ending 314 points down at 60,008. The NSE Nifty, on the other hand, erased 100 points to close at 17,899. Reliance Industries again accounted for almost 50 per cent of the Sensex loss as the stock ended 2 per cent lower on the BSE. Axis Bank, Kotak Bank, and Bharti Airtel were other top drags on the index. In broader markets, smallcaps bucked the trend. The BSE Smallcap index managed to end flat with a positive bias, while the Midcap index slipped 0.2 per cent. Sectorally, the Nifty Auto index outperformed the benchmarks for a second straight day today. In the past 2 days, the index has gained nearly 4 per cent on the NSE with individual stocks like Maruti Suzuki rallying 11 per cent during the period. Shares of the RC Bhargava-led company closed nearly 3 per cent higher today, near its 52-week high level of Rs 8,400 per share. This was after media reports that the company had received approval for setting up a third passenger vehicle manufacturing plant in Haryana's Sonepat district. The rally in the auto pack was also led by Tata Motors, which hit its highest level since February 2017 in intra-day trade. The stock has advanced 6 per cent in the past two days on hopes of a demand recovery. On the downside, the Nifty Realty index was the worst hit today, down 1.6 per cent. The Telecom index, too, ended 1 per cent lower, with individual stocks exhibiting mixed trends after the Union Cabinet approved a corpus of Rs 6,466 crore to provide mobile tower connectivity in Eastern India. Now, coming to primary market updates. The three-day initial public offering of Go Fashion, which opened today, was subscribed over 2 times with retail investors' portion getting a subscription of over 10 times. The IPO of Tarsons Products, meanwhile, concluded with nearly 80 times subscription. The portion reserved for NIIs and QIBs got massive subscriptions of over 180 times and nearly 120 times, respectively. In a separate development, Tuhin Kanta Pandey, secretary in the Department of Investment and Public Asset Management, said today that the government was looking to list LIC by March 2022. And before we close, a look at the trade set-up for tomorrow. A fresh surge in Covid cases globally and inflationary pressures and expensive valuation back home are keeping investors on the sidelines. Cautious trading with thin volumes is expected tomorrow, given an extended weekend ahead. Technically, the Nifty formed a bearish candle for a third straight day and closed below its support level of 17,900. Going ahead, the index may now move to its next support level of 17,700 and it could face a resistance around 17,950.

LIC is the Indian government's crown jewel as far as public sector undertakings go. The 65-year-old insurance behemoth has grown as part of India's history and has found a home in all economic households across the country. Its IPO, set to launch soon, will be yet another milestone. But as a state-owned entity, going public will not be easy—it will bring fundamental changes to the forefront.   Story originally reported by Seetharaman G and Anand Kalyanaraman: https://the-ken.com/story/why-india-shouldnt-repeat-irctcs-valuation-misstep-with-lics-ipo/   With guest Professor Srinivasan R, Professor of Strategy at IIM-Bangalore.   Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheKenWeb Psst are you going to buy the LIC IPO? Tell us on podcast@the-ken.com