Podcast appearances and mentions of doug kass

It's been a wild week in cannabis with elections and earnings results. We were joined this week by Dai Truong, Managing Director at Arlington Capital Partners, and Doug Kass, Founder of Seabreeze Partners. The conversation begins with a recap of the elections, emphasizing Amendment 3 failing in Florida and Republicans sweeping the executive and legislative branches. Doug Kass makes a surprise appearance to share his perspective on the industry challenges and the short-term invest-ability of the space. The need for new states and federal catalysts is impacting investor sentiment. The conversation concludes by analyzing the latest lackluster earnings results. While margins and adjusted EBITDA remain relatively strong, the industry is struggling to return to growth.

Lance is Back! What is really happening in Commercial Real Estate: Getting distressed inventories off the books at deep discounts. Market performance recap: Nice bounce off the 100-DMA; PCE coming: What it means & why it's important.Economic strength is keeping inflation high; can it last? After markets' nice sell off, downside risk still remains. Paying attention to economic reports and supply & demand; looking at Q1 GDP estimates; market review: Tesla & Meta: Narratives are fine, but look at the technicals. Bond auction narratives have been all over the place. Lessons for investors from the NFL: Avoid over-confidence. The difference between college & pro ball = retail vs pro investors. "Zig then the others Zag," Warren Sharp. "Groupthink = group stink," Doug Kass. Markets vs headlines; economic data vs polls; the steakhouse crowd vs the pubs; prices are the problem. The wealth gap plays havoc with inflation, which no one can really measure. SEG-1: What's Really Happening in Commercial Real Estate SEG-2: Economic Reports vs Supply & Demand SEG-3: Lessons for Investors from the NFL Draft SEG-4: Steakhouse Crowds, Pubs, and Polls Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7TjrCiY1s8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Overconfidence In NFL Drafts: A Lesson For Investors" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/overconfidence-in-nfl-drafts-a-lesson-for-investors/ "Economic Warning From The NFIB" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/economic-warning-from-the-nfib/ "Fed Chair Jerome Powell Suggests “Higher For Longer” https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Downside Risk is Alive and Kicking!" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDRSELUUdwY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What Does Realistic Retirement Look Like?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMvKYdHl_Ik&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #CommercialRealEstate #EconomicReports #SupplyAndDemand #NFLDraft #InvestorOverConfidence #InflationAdjustedSales #EconomicPerformance #EconomicWeakness #RetailSales #NFIBConcerns #SmallBusinessSales #EmploymentImpacts #ConsumerSpendingTrends #MaximizingBenefits #MarriedCouples #Longevity #SpouseConsideration #Viability #Markets #Money #Investing

Lance is Back! What is really happening in Commercial Real Estate: Getting distressed inventories off the books at deep discounts. Market performance recap: Nice bounce off the 100-DMA; PCE coming: What it means & why it's important.Economic strength is keeping inflation high; can it last? After markets' nice sell off, downside risk still remains. Paying attention to economic reports and supply & demand; looking at Q1 GDP estimates; market review: Tesla & Meta: Narratives are fine, but look at the technicals. Bond auction narratives have been all over the place. Lessons for investors from the NFL: Avoid over-confidence. The difference between college & pro ball = retail vs pro investors. "Zig then the others Zag," Warren Sharp. "Groupthink = group stink," Doug Kass. Markets vs headlines; economic data vs polls; the steakhouse crowd vs the pubs; prices are the problem. The wealth gap plays havoc with inflation, which no one can really measure.   SEG-1: What's Really Happening in Commercial Real Estate SEG-2: Economic Reports vs Supply & Demand SEG-3: Lessons for Investors from the NFL Draft SEG-4: Steakhouse Crowds, Pubs, and Polls Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7TjrCiY1s8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Overconfidence In NFL Drafts: A Lesson For Investors" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/overconfidence-in-nfl-drafts-a-lesson-for-investors/ "Economic Warning From The NFIB" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/economic-warning-from-the-nfib/ "Fed Chair Jerome Powell Suggests “Higher For Longer” https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Downside Risk is Alive and Kicking!" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDRSELUUdwY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What Does Realistic Retirement Look Like?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMvKYdHl_Ik&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1  -------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #CommercialRealEstate #EconomicReports #SupplyAndDemand #NFLDraft #InvestorOverConfidence #InflationAdjustedSales #EconomicPerformance #EconomicWeakness #RetailSales #NFIBConcerns #SmallBusinessSales #EmploymentImpacts #ConsumerSpendingTrends #MaximizingBenefits #MarriedCouples #Longevity #SpouseConsideration  #Viability #Markets #Money #Investing

In this episode we are joined by Jesse Redmond of Water Tower Research to discuss Rescheduling Rumours, Cannabis Catalysts & Earnings Take-Aways. Jesse has a unique background as a former hedge fund manager AND a cannabis dispensary operator. He shares insights on specific names and outlines a game plan depending on your risk tolerance. In this episode we discuss: - What to make of the recent Doug Kass rumour? - Kamala, Fat Joe & Election predictions - Earnings: How did Tier 1 MSOs perform? o How did smaller operators perform? - Game Plan: what names you should consider depending on your risk level - Catalysts: How will possible seismic changes affect the investing landscape? o Where will big money gravitate towards - California Cannabis – what's interesting to look at? Thanks again to Jesse for joining us Connect with Jesse: On X: https://twitter.com/jesseredmond On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jesseredmond/ Water Tower cannabis research: ⁠https://www.watertowerresearch.com/sector/12 To be added to Water Tower's cannabis email distribution list, email jesse@watertowerresearch.com

John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Chief Investment Strategist, says the consumer and the jobs market will play an important role in 2024. Elliot Ackerman, US Marine Corps Veteran & Former White House Fellow, overviews the latest in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific as global geopolitical tensions continue to rise. Sarah Hunt, Alpine Saxon Woods Chief Market Strategist, says six rate cuts could indicate a weaker economic scenario. Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Global Interest Rates and Currencies Strategist, advises holding a long position on oil. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, details the catalysts that could drag down stocks in his '10 surprises of 2024.' Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance  Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. John Stolfus joints chief investment Strategist at op co Op and I'm our asset management and we speak to him about the bullmarket he nailed last year and continues to nail this year. John, I'm going to take it back to the analog of the middle seventies, a horrific recession, the leap in nineteen seventy five, and then a follow on in nineteen seventy seven. It's twenty twenty four, a follow on bullmarket. I think in many ways it is, Tom. I think the question here really is, or rather the difference is, it's a substantially different background in terms of a digitalized global society for business as a consumer and what was back then, which was essentially an analog world. And I think things get digested much quicker. I think that the data is a better quality. And because we've been in crisis in an out of crisis since two thousand and eight, all the players as well as you know, the traders as well as the investors are more experienced with dealing with volatility. John, I think what's so important here is only Stolphus is talking about last year was a prelude. I just think that's so important. Fifty two hundred price target year rent this year, John, let's build on that. You and I have talked about this a few times in the last few months, and I've appreciate it. Can we just address it right now? How dependent that call is on interest rate cuts from the feder Reserve? Not much really. You know, we're not of the camp it's looking for six cuts this year in twenty twenty four. We're looking for perhaps one or two. And we're not looking for the first half for cuts. We think it'll happen in the second half of the year, and lightly later rather than earlier. In the second half. To us, the Fed has been remarkably sensitive in practicing its mandate. You know, where as able to comy and full employment is described by unemployment between three and four percent, and we think it wants to keep it that way, and so that's what we're looking at A little bit different. We like the Fed. Ironically, very few people do we think the Fed has done. It shows the Ben Bernank legacy carried on through Jerome Powell in the sense of communication and clarity. So it might not necessarily the rally my not be dependent on j. Powell. But how much is it dependent on the Central Bank of Tim Cook? I would have to say, perhaps I'll keep it away from a company specific here, but I would say certainly a business, the consumer and the jobs market will play an important role this year. Keyword to watch for is resilience when we look at economic data, what we're looking at is for things to show resilience, and naturally is a challenging environment when you're making transitions and you have the levels of trouble around the world. The geopolitical risks seems to keep ramping up by the day. But consider where business plays out in this where the opportunities are both this cyclical point where we are on the calendar, as well as the secular trends that are driving potential growth for all eleven sectors. Okay, So in other words, his text still lead me. I guess if that's the question at a time, or that accounted for fifteen percent of the twenty four percent game of the SMP last year at least, I think tech certainly remains a major participant in this, But I think what we need to watch well, of course communications services, which is about fifty percent tech related, you also have when you look at the other sectors, just think about industrials and all the technology in that. And it's a good customer of technology, whether it's it's sensors of robotics or what have you, and the cloud, big data and all that aon. So when we look at this, it's you know, whether it's it's a utility company, whether it's a materials company, whether it's a pharmaceutical or a biotech. Technology is where it's at. So we can but think. The other reason is last year Tech was was fabulous it's performance because it had been so brutalized in twenty twenty two when the Bears sold all of Tech, the long duration they sold because they were worried about red dancings, but they sold the good stuff that was highly profitable positive cash low, create products, and deeply embedded in the lives of business and the consumer. John the cliche is the boat has left the duck. I would guess a very large percent of the surveillance audience feels like they missed twenty twenty three. How do you get back in the game if the boat's left the duck. Yeah, Tom, I would say for the people who missed this, I would say it's a question of layering in. That's not back up the truck. At these levels, consider opportunities that show up when you get some weakness in names that may have gotten away from you. Look for babies that get grown out with the bathwater in downdrafts to add to positions that you're building, and in essence, what you want to avoid is just blindly buying deps. You want to be selective, even within what appears to be a nicely broadening rally. After as Lisa pointed out earlier, I mean we're still back to the future in terms of the prices of stocks. In many cases outside of the magnificent seventy eight there you know they've got it would look like they've got plenty of headroom available to move higher in so many ways. We had a decade in a year. As Lisha and I discussed a little bit earlier on the program, John want to put to catch up with you, sir, Happy new year. John stelfiestet of Oppenheim arrasted management. Right now, we need perspective, and we get it from someone gifted. He's served the nation in the Marine Corps, also a White House fellow, and critically he is a king of speculative fiction with James Travitis, Elliott Ackerman's must read two thou thirty four, boy is out of mustard right now, given the Philippines, given the South China Sea, and we eagerly anticipate two thousand and fifty four that you'll see in March. Elliott Eckerman joins us this morning. Elliott, if this is not speculative fiction, it is reality in the Red Sea. What is lost in the press coverage? I think the one thing that is often lost is we have a tendency to focus kind of specifically on military events while losing perspective that all military events happen in a political overlay. You know, ultimately these are political questions. What's going on in Taiwan? What's going on in Ukraine, what's going on in Israel. And the longer these wars play out, the more and more central the politics of the war it self become. And what the outcome is going to be the heart of your fiction with the Admiral st Vetus is things happen suddenly and then in sequence, do we have the ships in place against these terrorists whatever you want to call them. Do we have the process in place where unexpected bad things can happen in sequence? I think when it comes to the Middle East and the challenges that we're seeing there, yes we do. And that is a situation where we the United States vis the Iranians. We are not facing a peer level adversary necessarily in Iran. And I agree with Terry's comments that the underappreciated conflict here is Taiwan. And when it comes to Taiwan, you know, the United States does not have the forces in place, at least peer level forces in place that could meet Chinese aggression across the Taiwan Straits, and that's one of the huge challenges that we face it. But the Chinese would be fighting that conflict in their backyard and we would be fighting it from across the Pacific Ocean. I want you to elaborate a little bit on the point that you just made that all of these international conflicts have real domestic political implications. What are some of the ramifications that we've seen over the past year, how the conflicts have developed, and how public opinion has shaped the inaction that we're currently seeing in Congress to continue providing aid. I think when we go around the go around the world, if we look at Ukraine right now, I would argue that that's probably a war that's not going to be decided on the battlefield as those conditions stagnate. Is a war that's going to be decided at the ballot box. And I think in Ukraine, in Israel, as we see this war is now extending in two months, I think domestic political considerizations in Israel are going to determine the outcome of their war with Hamas. And I think when we look at the United States, you know, the elephant in the room is we have an election. It's going to occur this fall, and how that election unfolds will be determinatives of those conflicts. And lastly, when we look at Taiwan, I mean, in two weeks the Taiwanese people are having a presidential election, and the outcome of that election will certainly affect China's perceptions on what they should do in Taiwan. How different is the foreign policy of Donald Trump versus President Biden. I think the foreign policy of Donald Trump is much more unpredictable, and I think the foreign policy of Joe Biden, as we've seen it, as much more. It has it much more incremental. So I don't think anyone can necessarily say what Donald Trump's policies would be on any three of these conflicts Taiwan, Ukraine, or Israel, Whereas I think we've seen sort of a more consistent approach that Joe Biden has applied. I mean, I look, Elliott where we are, and it's about public service. There's a lot of people watching this across this nation that have loved ones. That's the loved ones on long tours of duty. I know that the Ford is coming back from the Mediterranean. Are we fit now in our defense budget for multiple wars you mentioned Taiwan. Let's say our war Ukraine, our war Iran, maybe our war China. Do we have a budget near capable of meeting those three threats? I think we're I think we have to take a very very hard look not only at the budget and the financial resources that we're applying, but you know, also the intellectual resources. And that's actually where I have the most concerns. You know, is a what a war against China look like a repeat of the Second World War, in which the coin of the realm and naval battle or aircraft carriers eighty years after the aircraft carrier became the corner of the realm. And I don't know that that is necessarily the case. You know, we've seen in places like Ukraine that the Ukrainians have been very effective in sinking Russian ships of the line with shore based missiles. And so I know, I'm a marine veter in my own service right now is in the midst of doing some real strategic a real strategic reset about what it would look like to fight a revisited island hopping campaign in the South China Sea, and they're restructuring the entire Marine Corps to do that. So I think there's a budgetary question, but there's also an intellectual question of you know, what will the wars of the future look like, and that work needs to be done now, and it's going to force some American military institutions to transform in ways that are going to be very uncomfortable with the war of the future. Elliott, what's a more effective strategy one that's predictable or one that's unpredictable. Well, I think in terms of your battle plans, you always want to be unpredictable. The word I would use is one that is adaptive. Because it's very difficult to predict what the war the future is going to be. It's most essential not to get the prediction right, but to get the prosture right so that your forces can adapt to whatever the next conflict looks like. And to use an analogy from the Second World War, at the outset of the Second World War, in terms of naval warfare, again, the coin of the realm was the battleship, and it had been the corner of the realm and was the central platform for centuries. But as we all know, you know, Pearl Harvard, the entire US battleship fleet was sunk, and we had this new platform, which is the aircraft carrier, and that platform was able to adapt and become the central force around which naval battles were fought, and I think whatever the next war is, we're going to see a similar process of adaptation need to occur. It's going to have to occur very fast, and the side that gets their right will probably be the side that wins oty. Just to finish that, what do you suspect it is. I think it's going to probably be a network of platforms. I think it's going to be unmanned, unmanned ships, unmanned aerial vehicles, our ability to fight both a high tech war and also a hybrid low tech war where many of those high tech systems are taken offline and our forces ability to kind of toggle between the two. So it's gonna be very, very complex, but more of the network centric version of warfare as opposed to a platform center version of warfare built around you know, very big ships and aircraft and things of that. Interesting. Interesting Elliott, thank you, I appreciate your time this morning. Always do Happy New Year, Sir Akman, US Marine Corps veteran whether surround the table. Sarah Hunt, chief market strategist at Alpine Saxon Words, Sarah, good morning and happy New Year. Let's revisit that quote from Berkley's This Morning. We believe the continued period of week results coupled with multiple expands is not sustainable. You on the same page. I think you almost have to be. I mean, you know, the theme for twenty twenty three was all about the FED and what was going to happen, and as soon as the cycle peak, you could be okay. So if we pulled forward a lot of multiple expansion on the back of the idea that rates are going to come down, they're probably not going to come down to that great Financial crisis level. If they come down a couple hundred basis points. Is the multiple expansion already too much? And I think that that's going to be the big tension in a lot of them. And you know, for Apple, which we were talking about, you've got to look at all that consistency and all that cash onlo and that's what people are paying for that and the exclusivity of its Apple, and people will keep replacing those products. It's that assessment true. If the whole market of just a select group of stocks that dominate the market, I think it's more select group. I mean, you have to I think valuations and we keep saying and it's one of like, this is Europe's year, this is valuation's year. It's going to matter this year, right, I don't know when it's going to matter, but at some point it will. I think having money have a cost makes valuations matter in a way that we had fifteen years where you know, people talked about it, but it didn't really matter. And maybe that starts to happen now and maybe people really start looking at those metrics. But I think you've got a lot of money on the table, and you've got a lot of places that you know, I got a lot of money that needs to be invested. Frame out total return. You could go to the Bloomberg folks. The terminal tr is the function, and you can model in and your return quickly one year back, two years back, three years, et cetera. And the answer is we're now addicted to oh, I made fifteen percent. I failed Blooney, it's a single digit return. At the most, you're going to make eleven percent. But the answer is do we need to get use again to equity return of eight or nine percent? I think that you do. And I think that you also have to look at history. I mean, yes, you had a huge move last year, and a handful of names, and yes, some of the other stocks started to catch up at the end of the year. I'm just looking at a chart of L three Harris before I come on here, and I was like, Wow, that back end of the performance was really really quick. I don't know where you end up with multiples here, but I don't think that you can have the kind of growth that we've had given the kind of economic backdrop that we're looking at. You. If the Fed's really going to cut six times like the market is pricing in, then we probably have a much weaker economic scenario than earnings are pricing in. So I don't know. There's a tension here. In twenty twenty four has got a lot of questions that need to be answer. You're the person I've been wanting to ask this question too. One of the big surprises last year was that the great underperformance came from oil. Tom and John were talking about why that was so surprising considering some of the conflicts that really were escalating in the Middle East. At this point, we are seeing oil perkop just a touch with relative in relation to what's going on in the Red Sea. Could this increase if it continues, change the disinflation narrative absolutely, I mean just the changing the trade routes alone could change some of that because you're going to things get more expensive. But you've had a huge supply response to oil demand and you've got you were talking about earlier, the US is a huge producer now right commodities are priced on the margin. If I've got excess supply, I can't get prices to really move that high, which is why the Saudias had to keep taking oil off the market. But if you start to see a crimping of some of those roots and you can't move things the way you thought you could before, then you're going to see then you could see some problems. And that's been a huge help for the inflation picture. And if that changes and you start to see data that is a little bit more inflationary, that narrative on how much the Fed's going to cut has to change, and then that's going to be a question. Then where to equity multiples go given that scenario. I know that you're bullish on energy stocks through the beginning of last year, then you've got a little more tapid as you saw as some of the moves at this point, how much are you leaning in to some of those names because of just how offsides people would be if the disinflation narrative fades an oil prices surge. Well, we think of energy as an area where you need to have some position, but you trade around that position, and you get heavier when you think that you've got an opportunity, and you get lighter when you think that the market is not going your way. When the supply came up a lot, that's where you sort of lighten up on your energy positions. I don't think you want to be out of it entirely. You've got a lot of very good dividen yields in those and you've got a lot of stocks that act better in a bad market than some of the other things do. So I think that's something you want to trade around. And we still think that energy has a longer tail. You've got a Barbell portfolio, You've got short term stuff for your day trading. We know you're famous for that, Sarah, and then you got the buy and hold. I want you to talk to the audience that their heads are spinning off of COVID. They're stating, Okay, COVID's over. Can I maintain some form of three year or four year or five year ownership of whatever equity uncomfortable? Can you still do that act? I think you absolutely can, and I think that this is the time to really be thinking about that thematic trade of what's going to happen in the next few years. Right, so we look at something like Tetratech that does all sorts of engineering construction but basically on a lot of water and some of the infrastructure stuff. I think that you can definitely look at companies that have a longer term theme that are playing into some of the things that are going on, but the volatility within that you have to be able to say, okay, this is where I will allow some volatility to occur, because some of those stocks that we like a lot still have had some challenges in a year where someone makes an acquisition or somebody does something. But I think you can look at the matic investing now because you really got a longer term view and you've got a market. It's fairly expensive, so you better really like where you're positioned. Let's finish on the banks, the regional banks specifically, not a big players, the regionals Kori closely followed Regional Bank ETF you know them well, up almost fourteen percent in November of sixteen percent in December. Is that just a leftige trade on what's happening in the bond market in treasuries as yields fall aggressively or is there something to get your hands around for twenty four I think that's a lot to do with what's going on with interest rates, and I think it's also a lot to do with people looking for okay, where has completely still been on the floor and maybe we can pick something up here, because the valuations on that group were very, very not challenging relative to the rest of the market. I think you still have issues with the yield curve. I think it's still difficult to make some money in some of those and I think we still have some commercial real estate issues that we haven't flown through yet. So it's a little bit challenging to say that that's a definite thing about the environment as more as like it was being picked up off the floor. Speaking of the yeld curve, Lisa two year versus ten year still negative thirty six basis points. They're not going to really make up some of the difference through lending long and borrowing short. To also Sarah's point one hundred and seventeen billion dollars of commercial mortgage debt coming to just this year alone, that's really going to raise some questions on that front. With some of these reached out. I had the same article. I believe it is in the fteam. My brain's frozen on that right now. But the answer John is I saw a bar chart. I'm going to say ten cities in America, there's basically New York in some of all the others, and maybe every other city combined is the same as New York. I mean, it's amazing. Now this is a local issue for us. E Sarah, It's going to see you. Happy New year, Sarah. About pont Snackson Woods. Let's quickly get the ry isman of acquiry here on global FX and all the other things that get us back to a great bull market in the United States. Wonderful to have your after Wiseman to get us started for the year. Let me go to the larger view, which is everything hinges on China. Do you agree not for twenty twenty four? No, Although I do think that China is a very important part of the macro story. Globally. We have this central banks in the US to worry about, we have the central banks in Europe to worry about, and we have supply shocks, especially in the natural resource markets and the oil markets to worry about too. So China is important, but it's not all or nothing as it comes to China. I will say this though, I think the market is somewhat wrong in focusing too much on the property sector in China an agurate demand in China. I think what the market has lost sight of to some extent is President's willingness to go after the tech sector in China and more generally, you know, against the whole concept of private property in China. I think this is what is souring sentiment for China, and I think to the extent that that is find some relief in twenty twenty four, it could be a bigger deal for China on the upside than you know, some resolutions to the problems on the balance sheet of the property sector. There's been a multi decade failure of international stocks and some correlated over to an ever stronger dollar. Is a dollar finally broken where there's an unspoken opportunity in international equities. Well, if you're asking, is the dollar is a lot dollars a reserve currency as the standard for international trade, international finance is over No, I know, I don't think so. If what you're asking for, is there going to be a structural break with regard to the status of the dollar, international capital markets, and international trade, I think the answer is no. Remember that we had a period before we had globalization, before nineteen ninety five for that matter, when China and Russia and the other emerging markets were not that fully integrated into the global economy or the Washington Consensus for that matter, and yet we still talked about the dollar is the reserve currency of the world. Why, because you know, a good part of the of the world still depends on the dollar for its trade and for its commerce and for its it's financing. So no, I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon. At least, one of the trades that we do at the beginning of every year is to come up with potential tail risks, which inevitably will probably be wrong. But there is a question here. Tail risk the dollar being somehow profoundly debased, seems to be off the table. From what you just said, what about a sort of the tail risk of some sort of significant supply shock. You sort of alluded to that initially in the commodity space, so that I think is a bigger tail risk, and I think it behooves every investor out there to at least have some oil in one's portfolio, be long oil, because when you think about US recessions in the postwar period, you'll find it an amazingly large number of them had been preceded by a rapid rise in oil prices. You'll see that, and it behooves investors to have some oil in the portfolio because we just don't know to the extent that we do have a supply shock. Oil prices will go up, and you'll offset the losses you would otherwise experience from seeing stocks go seeing bonds go down. In that context, this raises a question to me of how off size the market would be should there be some sort of oil supply shock. Given the fact that people have kind of gotten accustomed to the idea that the US is a producing record amounts, and then even in the phase of conflict, oil prices went down, how wrongly positioned are people for this kind of this kind of event. I don't know how wrongly positioned they are. There is a case to be made, however, for the logic of oil prices having come down in the last few months, and the logic is very straightforward. The elasticity of supply in oil is actually quite high, potentially higher than the market surmised before six months ago. What we have seen with the increase in oil prices that preceded this decline is a huge increase in oil production in the US, and that is the basis for why oil prices are down. But if we were to get a shock, a shock out of the Middle East, for example, a shock out of Russia, it's not conceivable that production can go up quickly enough to offset that in a very short period of and that's the risk that we face right now from these shocks. Over the long term, there'll be an adjustment in US supply that's positive and beneficial, but not in the short term. Is the US donar a commodity currency now? No, I don't think so. Certainly the market doesn't see it that way, right. It's interesting there are some emerging markets that we don't necessarily associate that much from the perspective of their current account balance and their trade with oil, because they're not huge net exporters Brazil, for example, but they are large producers. And yet the market tends to associate the Brazilian real with oil more than it does associate the US dollar with oil. Do you expect that to change anytime soon? No? I don't think so. And that's because no one's going to really associate the US with a very large net export balance in oil. It really has to get to a point where US trade is dominated by oil, and that is not the case. Yet it's still dominated by services. Knowledge very true, TK The number is just absolutely staggering when it comes to production, thirteen million barrows a day in this country. Yeah, well, it's interesting here is we don't have an oil policy. I mean, we take great pride that Washington has never come up with the plan. We've got this plan, that plan, whatever plan. I guess it's a technological success. Not sure. We needn't want no plan. Well to that point, do we need one? It's Washington is the White House of renovant with regards to this conversation, only to respect that oil is such a geopolitical issue, and of course geopolitics and politics generally have to manage you through diplomacy or through some management of market forces that are relevant to geopolitics. That's ok. There's a case be made for the energy market to be managed from that perspective. But if it wasn't for the importance of oil from a geopolitical perspective, I don't think so. Terry. It's good to see you. Happy new year. Thank you, sir, Terry Wiseman of Macquarie. We're beginning strong this year, and part of that is with Doug Cass, who is many of you know out on social media. Seabree's Partners is a great pinata and Doug, before we get to your always interesting, thought provoking ten ideas, if I'm cautious on the market, or if I'm short on the market and the market runs away from me the other direction, what do you do? What do you do? In December? Given this bull market leg up? How did you respond? We were short in two time frames. One was timely mated after July after the majorly I run, but we didn't lose money in the majorly run, and we were net short in November and December. We didn't lose money either. And now how do you do that? I think a lot of people want to know, Doug, how do you not lose money? It's tough, you know, to begin with, Why did I get it wrong in the last two months? I think I underestimated the animal spirits and the price momentum that had been accumulated. I underestimated the power of the herd as the pressure on the upside intensified, and so did Fomo. I understand. I estimated the contribution from market structure, which had basically intensified the upside to equities, and same applies to interest rates. The momentum and the yields to the downside accelerated. And you know, we live in a market which is has a structure. It's far different than I started when I was a housing analyst kit or Peabody. Buyers live higher and sellers of lower, so you have to adapt. Warm Buffett said the first two lessons on investing don't lose money, and the second lesson is don't forget the first lesson. So we trade opportunistically around short positions and risk averse. Because my short book is pretty diversified, and when I'm wrong, I take a lot of small office that's the answer. But as we entered the new year, I am not short. So how do you think about here this twenty twenty four? Again, I think the you know, late October through the year end twenty three caught a lot of people by surprise, the vigor of that rally here. So what do we do here on January second? Well, I always find it amusing that there is now a universal view almost after the quantum rise, especially the NASDAC, the markets are headed higher. However, I think it's important Paul, to observe how wrong the confident consensus has been in each of the last two years. If you remember, in the end of twenty twenty one, the herd was optimistic. In twenty twenty two was a disaster. We had such a bad experience in twenty twenty two that the consensus ended that year wildly confident, and that especially but this time barish, especially on tech stocks, and that couldn't be for their off sides. Today, the consensus found the momentum is very bullish and an area bear can be found. In fact, many of the bears that I watch when I'm on the desk stars the NBC have now become bulls. So I see a vast of a ray of unexpected political, geopolitical, economic, and market surprises that could be untapped for next year. And my biggest concern is the equity risk premium. And despite the enormity of the drop in yields, the equity risk premium is still paper thin, and historically this is a reasonable predictor of weak markets. Paul Apple, Yeah, exactly, Doug surprises for twenty twenty four. What should Maybe we're not thinking about it. I mean we should, sure. I think one of the things we're not thinking about is in part due to fear that the Democrats will continue to hold on to the presidency. Foreign powers step up military confrontations and my surprise, my second surprise, is that the West continues to lose patients with how the war is going with Ukraine, as a US backs off and support and negotiations of a territorial split began and Ukraine is forced to give up east side of the country. North Korea, with support from Russia, undertakes skirmishes in the DMZ and makes threats to invade South Korea. Iran completes its nuclear build up, which provides a direct attack from Israel. Though China doesn't invade Taiwan, it continues with aggressive war game tactics in the Kia Sea. So my feeling is that the global economy, Tom and pol are more susceptible to supply shocks than has generally believed. And with Russia and Saudi conspiring on production cuts, I wouldn't be surprised as a surprise that the price of oil exceeds one hundred and ten dollars a barrel, and the price of a gallon gasoline US approaches six dollars, and shares of Exxon oxy chevron each rise by a third in the year. Doug, I want to get to send it's so important within all of this, you really go after the Blackstones, the Apollos of the world. You say, private equity quote to get torn to shreds. Discuss that that's important for global wall Street. Sure, Surprise number seven is Wall Street's most vicious vultures. Private equity are about to get torn to shreds. And remember we still Tom have elevated interest rates, and we have a slowing global economy. We have the loan rate reset cliff beginning at the last half of this year, and I think it's going to contribute to a leader in private credit failing. Blackstone shares could drop by a third after the BREI, which is the private real estate fund run by the company, and the public fund bx MT come under new redemption pressures. And finally, I wouldn't be surprising. I was involved as a director of a business development company in New York Stock Exchange and I personally saw vividly the phony marks in our books. So my surprise is that shares a private equity stocks like KKR, Apollo and Blackstone plunge as the SEC opens and investigation into the failure of the private equity industry to realistically marked to market their portfolios in the timely manner. Wow, interesting because that's been an issue for a long time, particularly now that these companies are public. How about private credit, Doug, This is a new business for you, Tom and me. Over the last decade or something. It's just exploded in terms of size. We were all comfortable with, or we think we understand private equity, but private credit has become a huge business and it just doesn't feel like it gets the regulatory scrutiny that they get the regulatory scrutiny at all. Paul it's hurting the banking industry. It's one of the reasons why I'm so negative on banks, besides the credit cycle, the emerging credit cycle. So this is something to watch, you know, whenever there is such quantum increase in balance sheets as are currently in private equity, we have to be on the alert. Well, speaking of alert, Doug, I got time for one question. I read my Padres in Red Sox the athletic coverage this week. I'm sorry Juan Soto for the dreaded New York Yankees. He's basically Weighe bogs with power that changes the Yankees lineup, doesn't. It's a massive move for the Yankees. Our team has lacked left hand sluggers in recent years, and we never had the necessary lineup support for Aaron Judge. Remember, he bats left handed right and he's fully capable of taking advantage of the short porch in right fielded Yankee Stadium. I think we're one Jordan Montgomery type away through the World Series. But the problem is Montgomery, Montras, Manea Lugo, they're all going, they're all signing. But this is a powerful lineup from may U Sodo, Judge, Zo, Stanton Torres, twenty seconds. Dougcast, could you do something about the food at Yankee Stadium? People that live in glasshouses in Fenway Park? Doug, Thank you so much. Doug Cass the series partners. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always. I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keane and this is Bloomberg.See 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Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Chief Fixed Income Strategist, says the markets need conviction that the Fed is done hiking rates. Annmarie Hordern, Bloomberg Editorial Chief Washington Correspondent, breaks down new election polling from Bloomberg/Morning Consult. Christian Horner, Oracle Red Bull Racing Team Principal & CEO, talks Oracle Red Bull Racing's dominance and previews the Las Vegas Grand Prix. Troy Gayeski, FS Investments Chief Market Strategist, remains in the higher-for-longer camp despite the resilience of the US economy. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, details his market view and why he says, ‘it's not whether I should be short, it's how short I should be.'Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, says his favorite hedge at the moment is calls on the treasury market. Steven Major, HSBC Global Head of Fixed Income Research, says there's evidence of capitulation in the markets. Julie Norman, UCL Centre on US Politics Co-Director, says the Israel-Hamas war will define what direction the region goes next. Erika Najarian, UBS Large-Cap Banks & Consumer Finance Equity Research Analyst, discusses bank earnings. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, explains how he factors geopolitical risk into his outlook as he attempts to anticipate markets.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tom Porcelli, PGIM Fixed Income Chief US Economist, reacts to the US August CPI report. Tom Forte, DA Davidson Sr. Research Analyst, says Apple stock is being held up by the iPhone and share buybacks. Regina Mayor, KPMG Global Head of Clients & Markets Rep, says demand destruction in oil would kick in if gas prices go substantially over $4. French Hill (R) Arkansas, discusses House Speaker McCarthy launching an impeachment probe into President Biden. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President talks about Apple, and why he thinks the stock is facing serious challenges.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dan Nathan, Guy Adami and Doug Kass break down the top market headlines and bring you stock market trade ideas for Wednesday, August 23rd MRKT Call is brought to you by our presenting sponsors CME Group, FactSet & SoFi Watch MRKT Call LIVE at 1pm M-TH on YouTube Sign up for our emails Follow us on Twitter @MRKTCall Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow @CarterBWorth on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Like us on Facebook @RiskReversal Watch all of our videos on YouTube

You've heard the saying: At least it's a dry heat. That might be true when comparing 90 degree temperatures in Arizona to Texas or Florida, but when dealing with truly extreme heat, hot is hot. With more than two weeks with temperatures above 110 degrees, ABC Arizona meteorologist Jorge Torres talks with the team about the impacts of this record-breaking heat wave on the people, the power grid, and everyday life in Phoenix. We want to hear from you! Have a question for the meteorologists? Call 609-272-7099 and leave a message. You might hear your question and get an answer on a future episode! You can also email questions or comments to podcasts@lee.net. About the Across the Sky podcast The weekly weather podcast is hosted on a rotation by the Lee Weather team: Matt Holiner of Lee Enterprises' Midwest group in Chicago, Kirsten Lang of the Tulsa World in Oklahoma, Joe Martucci of the Press of Atlantic City, N.J., and Sean Sublette of the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia. Episode transcript Note: The following transcript was created by Adobe Premiere and may contain misspellings and other inaccuracies as it was generated automatically: Hello, everyone. I'm meteorologist Sean Sublette. And welcome to Across the Sky, our National Lee Enterprises weather podcast. Lee Enterprises has print and digital news operations in more than 70 locations across the country, including my home base in Richmond, Virginia. I'm joined by my meteorology colleagues from across the sky, Matt Holiner in Chicago, and Kirsten Lang in Tulsa. Our pal Joe Martucci, away from the office today, July 25th. And we bring that up we often don't talk about a specific day, but we bring that up because our guest this week is Jose Torres, a meteorologist at the ABC station in Phoenix, Arizona. They have have had more than two consecutive weeks with temperatures of 110 degrees or hotter. And we want to talk about how the city has been handling it, how the people have been handling it. And, you know, Matt, Kirsten, some of the things you talked about are things that we normally never have to think about here in the central United States or the eastern United States. And some of it was very eye opening. Yeah. Listen, when he starts to talk about what part of the hospital is actually seeing capacity during this time, because I think that was something that really was surprising to me. Yeah. And we got into the discussion because, you know, I've seen some people kind of dismiss the heat in Arizona and the Southwest, like, oh, it's just a dry heat and or he's from Texas, but I'm from Texas. So I was like, I want to talk to a guy who has experienced both the heat and humidity and the dry heat and really get an idea of which is worse. I just the same. So diving in and hearing his description, comparing Texas and Arizona, I really enjoyed that. Oh, yes, we hear that all the time. Oh, but it's a dry heat, so he'll get into that. I'll talk about power grid, I'll talk about water supply, infrastructure, all that stuff coming up. Or he is a native of Texas, as you alluded to, as a graduate of Texas A&M before he was in Phenix, he worked on the air in El Paso and Albuquerque. So let's get right to our conversation with Jorge Tourists. Meteorologist Abc15 in Phenix, Arizona. Jorge, thank you so much for joining us to talk about this brutal heat you've had in Arizona and in Phenix in particular. First off, I want to talk about Phenix. For people who aren't from around Phenix and Arizona and the Southwest, they had this idea. Well, of course, it's hot. It's Phenix. But but talk a little bit about how it is different this year, both in scope and how long this heat wave has been going on. Yeah, shot. So a lot of people outside of Phenix, the Valley in Arizona think of Phenix as a brutally place which for most the summer it is. The difference this year is the longevity of this excessive heat wave. Now, we actually have to start with the beginning of the year. What it was a cooler and wetter start across the west, including here in Arizona. We didn't really start seeing the one tens until late June. And we usually get them in mid-June. In fact, June tends to be on average the hottest month of the year in Phenix. But July of 2023 is going to beat that by a landslide. We have had now 25 consecutive days with highs at or above 110 degrees. That blows the all time record of 18 days that was set back in June of 1974. That's just one aspect. The other aspect is just how warm it stays even at night. That's the other thing we're noticing a lot more nights where lows don't even get below 90 degrees. We are now on 15 straight days with lows at or above 90. So the city and much of the valley doesn't even cool down at night. So that's what's made this particular stretch not just extreme, but also dangerous and unfortunately even deadly. So, George, you mentioned that it's been dangerous and it's been deadly. You know, working in the news business. I'm sure you've heard a lot of stories. You know what? How how are you seeing people cope with the heat in different ways than maybe they wouldn't have in the past just with this unrelenting heat wave that you've had. So one of the things here at ABC 13 that that we we promote is obviously people are trying to stay inside for as long as they possibly can safely between the hours of usually we would say from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m., but it's already around 100 degrees by 9 a.m. here. So we're telling people to stay inside at from essentially 9:00 until six if they can. Obviously, not a lot of people can because you have to be outside their job makes them be outside. So another thing we always say obviously is stay hydrated, drink plenty of water, electrolyte drinks. But we are also encouraging people to go to their nearest cooling centers. So one thing that the city of Phenix and Maricopa County has done very well is provide cooling centers for people to find an adequate location, not only to stay cool if they can, for a long period of time, but also to get water. And that's one thing we're seeing a lot here is a lot of cooperation between government agencies and entities to keep people who don't really have the luxury or the necessity or to buy a shelter to find a cooler space. And it gives them that opportunity, along with obviously malls being open, movie theaters, large places where people can go in and stay cool and. HAURI I'm curious about how disruptive this has been on everyday life there. Have there been certain adjustments to workers who have to be outside adjustments in their hours or maybe more frequent breaks or more water provided? And have there been any outdoor activities? I mean, we're talking about summertime here when people want to be going out and doing stuff. Have there been any events that have been canceled because of the heat? There was one just recently. There was a concerts by the group Disturbed that was canceled as a result of the Heat because it was in an outdoor amphitheater that in July temperatures begin to cool down a bit usually. So it's okay for the most part. But obviously this July has been unprecedented when it comes to this relentless heat. So that is one event that was canceled as a result of the excessive heat. We've had a lot of other events where people have raised their concerns or voiced their concerns regarding temperatures with a few concerts, but they've still gone off as far as other events. Now we're starting to see more schools open back up because a lot of schools here in the valley, which will be referred to the Phenix metro area, are year round. So they're beginning to open up. They're still adding practices, but yes, they are. They're giving their players a more breaks for water, obviously, along with many crews who work outside. We're talking construction workers, we're talking landscapers. They're still in it, starting very early. A lot of these crews start before sunrise when it's obviously still hot, still temperatures in the nineties. But they, from what we're understanding, are getting the breaks in order to stay cool and still do the job that they've been tasked to do. Yeah, but the stuff that has to be done outside, I get that entirely. But also they get in this kind of heat. Are there things happening to infrastructure? I've heard, you know, you hear the horror stories about pavement starting to melt. When it gets a certain temperature threshold, it takes a lot longer or a lot more running room for aircraft to get going because the air density isn't sufficient to get lift on the wings. Any of that kind of stuff starting to happen. From what you've seen. Nothing that's widespread, at least from what we have been reporting. Now we heard of a lot more air conditioning units go out because they're all in for such a long time. So we're seeing a lot more of these air conditioning companies. The backs going to repair a lot of these residential areas that don't have AC working. And in a place like Phenix in the middle of summer, that can be dangerous and that can be deadly. So we are seeing that. Something else we're noticing not so much from the infrastructure standpoint, but from the public health standpoint. A lot more burn victims going to the Arizona birds that are as a result of falling on the pavement. So we're hearing reports of first degree, second degree, even third degree burns from just being on the pavement, not just falling on it, but for those who unfortunately don't have a home to go to, are sleeping on it at night and throughout the day. So some of the birds, the Arizona birds that are are at capacity, a lot of them due to, unfortunately, some of the burn victims as a result of just how hot the pavement and the asphalt can be in excess of 150, even 160 degrees. So that's something we're noticing a lot, too. All right. So as you mentioned before, as we get into July, that's normally when the temperatures tend to back off. And I'm assuming that's because it's about the time of year when when the monsoon circulation is expected to show up. Talk a little bit about that in terms of the Phenix climate, when when you oftentimes expect the worst, the heat to break and the latter part of the summer, talk about the monsoon circulation, why it's important. And and I'm imagining people are really itching for it to show up soon. Everyone here in Arizona is waiting for the monsoon to wrap up. And yes, for those of you who are watching outside of Arizona in the southwest, a part of the United States does have its own version of the monsoon. It's not as intense as the one you're used to hearing about, say, in India. But we do have our monsoon season. We have our seasonal. Winship that starts to occur mainly in July, specifically for Arizona, but the onset starts in June in northern Mexico. What happens is that once you start to get those temperatures in the southwest really beginning to heat up, which is around June, we start to see that wind shift from the south and we get more moisture coming in. And then by July, mid-July is when we really begin to see that monsoon flow really park itself over Arizona and the southwest. And that's when we start to see those thunderstorms in the afternoon producing some of those famous videos. You see it up walls of dust called haboob. So that we had, what, about a week ago, and then we start to see more storms develop. But that's when we get a lot of our rainfall that being said, because most of the early summer months were cooler than average, the monsoon was delayed. So that's why July has been one of the hottest months on record and may actually be the hottest month on record for Phenix because we really haven't had the monsoon moisture and the storms to go with it to really drop those temperatures. And we're still waiting. But there are signs here in the next week or two that finally we could start to see some signs of life with the monsoon statewide. Yeah, that was something that that I was looking at prior to talking with you. Is that that long term forecasting kind of, you know, when when relief was inside, there was a lot of promise. Yeah, of course, it can't last forever. But, you know, looking at that, how what is it looking like is you look like August is going to be a little bit better month for you guys there then. Yes. As of now, it does appear that August looks a little more promising as far as a if not a wetter than average red, at least a near normal, which we will take obviously starting off with July being bone dry. And actually when it comes to rainfall, we have already exceeded 120 days without measurable precipitation at Benue State Harbor, which is where the official observations are taken. And that's already about to approach the top five list as far as long as stretches without rape. Also, you add on the 110 degree days, we've had the 90 degree days we've had and no rain over a span of months. So everyone's already like we're we're tired of this. We want some relief. But it does appear that that August is looking, if not where we should be on in a given month for August during the monsoon, maybe above. Yeah. I'm imagining where you should be for this time of year will will be a welcome relief. We're going to take a quick break then we'll have more with George Torres from Abc15 in Phenix, Arizona. And the blistering heat wave they're going through on across the sky will be right back. And welcome back to the Across the Sky podcast. I'm meteorologist Sean Sublette along with Houston Lang and Matt Hollander and our guest this week as well, he tourists from Abc15 in Arizona, Phenix, Arizona, where they are in the midst of an absolutely brutal and record shattering heat wave already I know 25 days above 110 and counting. This heat wave so bad, so prolonged. How what is kind of the feeling on the street as we're in terms of how people are perceiving this? Do they kind of see this as like, you know what, maybe this climate change thing is starting to show up? Are they kind of seeing it as well? You know, it's just Arizona and we're used to it. What's kind of the feeling out there in the public as you kind of mingle around and and hear people talking about this heat wave? Well, I'm getting different reactions from from different people. You have those who are lifers here in Arizona, specifically here in the Phenix Metro, and they're like, it's Phenix in summer. It's going to be hot. It's going to be 110 degrees every now and then. The the issue is that it's so prolonged and we keep breaking these records essentially daily, not just during the afternoon works out or ten and 15 or hottest temperatures so far this year, 190. It's happened twice already, and that hasn't happened since about 2017. So a lot of these temperatures haven't happened in a very long time. And so you have those who are like, you know what, this in 2020, we thought that was bad, where we had to be three days that entire year with highs and above 110. That's still a record. But you're seeing this happening more frequently, especially since the early 2000s. So people are also taking notice like, you know, I don't remember it being like this for so long. And then the other group that some people tend to forget about are those that just moved here. The one thing about four years is it's a vastly growing community and we have people moving in from the Midwest, from California, from all parts of the country and the world. And for them, this is their first summer in Arizona and they are experiencing one of the worst on record. So for them is like, is it normally like this? And we're like, it's not normally like this, but it may be a new normal if we continue going the path we are worldwide In. HAURI, I want to talk about the kind of heat. So you're from Texas? I'm from Texas as well. And so we are used to the heat and then one of the arguments that comes up are people in Texas and the Southeast is like, well, we deal with the humidity. It's the heat and humidity out west. And Phenix and Arizona, it's a dry heat, so no big deal. So is that true? Is a dry heat really better? Does the humidity make a difference or is hot? Just hot? It's hot. It's hot everywhere. When it's 100 degrees with no humidity, obviously that feels way better than 100 degrees with so much humidity like in Texas, which I don't miss going up there and and the summers were just brutal. But when you get to 110, when you get to 115, even when there's little humidity, it hurts like you feel it. It's a you know, it's a dry heat. But so is an oven. So is a jet engine. You don't want that in your face all day long. As as much as I don't miss that humidity in Texas, 100 degrees or 95 degrees with humidity, I'll take that over 115 hundred and 1718 degrees, even close to 190. It's a different kind of heat and it's a heat that that no one wants to be in. But yeah, millions of people that are in it every day, myself included. And just to follow up on that, too, I'm curious about the wind situation in Phenix, because one thing that was I noticed a difference when I grew up in San Antonio for my three years living in the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, which is near the Texas coast and the valley compared to San Antonio, there was a lot more wind. We got a lot more sea breeze activity. So we had a lot of hot, humid days, but there were quite a few days where it was breezy and that did make a difference when there was a breeze and you could like at least below the sweat of your body, it seemed to make a difference. The wind can help too. So what is the wind situation like thing, especially during this heat? Well, during the summer, it doesn't really get super windy unless you have storms nearby. We we've had a couple here and there, but in the afternoons we do get some occasional breezes. Wind speeds around 10 to 15. Well, we have 10 to 50 mile an hour wind speeds from a dry place with temperatures at 110, 115 degrees. It feels like a furnace is blowing in your face. So it doesn't give you that cool feeling like you would on the on the Texas coast here. It's just like a furnace is on and it's blowing hot air in your face. So it's really not comfortable even though we do have breezy days. And something else I was just curious about was how are things going, I guess with the electric grid there? You guys seeing any sort of power outages due to the heat? We are seeing power outages here and there across the valley, but they're not really prolonged. It is not a major outage issue across the valley and we don't expect it to be. The grid here is is different than than there is the one people know about in Texas with ERCOT, where they've had their issues and their concerns regarding demand over the past few years. We don't really have that concern here. But we do have those occasional power outages in certain communities and they can go on for a couple of hours, which is concerning. But the local energy and utility groups here, APS or SRP, they are on top of it for the most part when it comes to getting the power back on for those communities that are dealing with the outage, whether it be short term or long term. One other question I had kind of kind of dovetails off of that going back to water supply. I mean, I know it was a little bit wetter at the beginning of the year. Water supply. Okay. You know, we hear a lot of the horror stories here in the United States about the West is in deep trouble running out of water. It was a wet winter, so I'm guessing that that's helped everybody out a fair bit, at least for for a summer or two. But how is the water situation this summer there in Arizona? You're right in that the winter it was a wet one across the west from California to Colorado, where a lot of Arizona's water supply comes from the Colorado River and the lake levels at Powell and Mead have gone up quite a bit over the past few months. So that is a welcome sight for us here in Arizona, where a lot of our water supply comes from the Colorado and also the Salt and Verde rivers, which are more local, and they haven't really been impacted as much, thankfully. The other concern, obviously, is our groundwater supply. And that's where we've had more concern because the majority of groundwater in the state of Arizona is unregulated and you have a do a few places, including Phenix, that has a regulated groundwater supply. In fact, earlier this year, the governor of Arizona, Hobbs, announced that within the Phenix AMA or active management area companies who are only going to use groundwater as far as the water supply for certain communities within the Phenix metro area have to show proof of another form of water. And it can't just be solely groundwater if not, and that they're building a large enough community residential or subdivision, then they cannot be approved to built. So that is something that is brand new as of this year, some companies will not be allowed to build if they are only showing groundwater as their only source of water for the project that they are building. So that's something that's new that our governor has imposed here. Yeah. I'm curious about what other long term discussions are happening since over the last few years we've seen these extended heat waves. This seems to be something that is going to be an issue moving forward. The heat situation getting worse, perhaps extended droughts. What are some of the other discussions that are going on as far as long term planning, preparing Phenix? Cause you're obviously not going to move the entire city of Phenix out of their population. It's just been going up. So what kind of long term discussions are happening about what can be done moving forward in the future to be. Better prepared for these heat? Well, one thing when it comes to the heat waves, City of Phenix is the first city in the country that has its own Office of Heat and Mitigation. It was put into place a couple of years ago, and it's looking at ways to mitigate the the extreme heat that we deal with here in Phenix, you know, one of the hottest metropolitan cities in the country. And so the office is coming up, ways to try to be resilient when it comes to allowing the valley to cool down a bit by making more parks with trees, things of that nature. So that is something that the city is really, really putting an emphasis on because the Phenix is growing and it's going to grow quite a bit. People for the most part, for the most part, love Phenix and Arizona. When it's not 100 to 115 degrees. You have the rest of the year where temperatures are very comfortable. And so our our weather conditions. But in the summer months, obviously, it can get dangerously hot like like this summer so far. So that's one thing that looking long term the city is working on, too, to find ways to make the city a bit cooler than it has been. Yeah, I understand that for sure, because I think we all know the planets in the cities are only getting hotter. We've got urban heat to contend with on top of the the planetary warming signals. So it's good that they're thinking ahead for for the long term planning or anything else you wanted to share before we turn you loose and let you get back to your day job. Mean one thing we're constantly doing here at Abc15 is is talking about these issues, whether it be extreme heat, whether it be air quality, whether it be, as you guys talked about or asked about the water concerns here in Arizona and across the west. And we are continuing to tell the public that, you know, this is something that we're going to have to deal with unless changes are made, not just at the local level or in your home, but also at the government level, higher up from state and federal. And, you know, the more report on it, the more people are understanding the issues and the more we could see some change. I mean, it's not stuff that we're asking for. We're just saying, you know, this doesn't happen. That's going to happen. But if this happens, that'll happen. So that's all we're doing here at ABC 15 is just talking about the important issues when it comes to climate specifically, but pertains to Phenix and Arizona and let the viewers know what's happening. Good man, good man. So sorry. Thank you so much for taking the time with us today. And do your best to stay cool to all of our all of your colleagues there at Abc15, too, to stay cool as well. And hopefully we'll talk with you again soon. All right. Looking forward to it. Hopefully by then, temperatures here will be much, much cooler. Yeah, we'll see. We'll see if we'll get a good haboob going for later this summer. Hit the fall. Take care, man. Hurry. I'll take care. Thank you. What a great conversation with Foray today in the midst of a heat wave that, frankly, is very hard for me to even imagine. And one of the things I'm glad you all brought up was the power situation, because it's really hard to imagine going without electricity, an air conditioner, air conditioning in a situation like this. I remember as a kid, you know, in the seventies and eighties, we didn't have air conditioning in the hot Virginia summers. And that was that was bad enough. I really can't fathom what it would be like to to be in a house without air conditioning in Phenix, Arizona, right about now. Well, it just got me thinking about, you know, beyond, you know, the southeast and southwest, where, you know, most folks at least have air conditioned. Now, there is the issue where the cost is so high this people are not running their air conditioners in this extreme, which is a scary thought. But to me, you know, we're seeing the heat expand to more places farther north. And these heat waves aren't just limited to the southwest, but they're happening in the Midwest. The northwest, the northeast, and places where some people don't even ever do this. And again, that was the biggest shock to me moving from Texas to Chicago. How there are apartments here, there are homes here that don't even have air conditioning. And I think moving forward, you're going to see less and less than that and a pivot where, you know, so much of the focus has been on the heat or the cold winters and making sure people have heat to a more of a shift that in the summer we got to make sure people have air conditioning and no longer is it okay to not have air conditioning in a lot of places. With the temperatures on the rise, that's becoming a necessity, not an option. Yeah, And you know, we have in Tulsa, whenever we have such hot conditions and I'm sure they have it there too, you have those cooling stations which, you know, you got to have those across the city when you have temperatures like this for some people who, you know, forget the the fact if they have it, their power is going out. Some of them, you know, may be homeless and don't have a spot at all to to receive any kind of AC. And so those cooling stations are really important as well in situations like this just to you know, just to stay healthy. It'll hit you hard and it'll hit you fast. That heat I visit out there quite often. I know I've talked about this before, but I've been was out there and it is different. You know, he described it as feeling like you're in an oven. And I think that was like spot on. Yeah, we're going to stay with heat as the theme there. Our next podcast. We've got Zeke House father coming up next time. He's a climate scientist who's written a lot extensively for both carbon brief and Berkeley Earth there on the West Coast in California. We're going to be talking about the hot ocean waters. You know, we've heard a lot about how how hot the oceans have been this season. We're going to talk a little bit about what's causing that. It's not just the the warming climate, but there are other things going on. He's he's really good at that. So looking forward to having our Zeke. And then we're going to a couple more more kind of ocean and and safety kind of things whether it's, you know, coastal safety or then returning to hurricanes before we get into we're getting close to football season, right? So we're going to have somebody from the Korey Stringer Institute or Korey Stringer Institute excuse me, Doug Kass of there to talk about heat and football practice. Because you put those pads on, you drawn the wind sprints and the August heat, and that puts you at risk as well. So now we're going to close up shop for this week. So for Kirsten Lang in Tulsa, Matt Holiner in Chicago, and our pal Joe Martucci in Atlantic City, I'm meteorologist Sean Sublette, thank you for listening to the Across the Sky podcast and we'll see you next time.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Jean-Yves Fillion, BNP Paribas USA CEO, says the US economy is the most resilient in the world. David Bailin, Citi Global Wealth Chief Investment Officer & Global Head of Investments, says the Fed may raise rates too high and keep it there for too long. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Director of Research, says there is confusion in the oil market. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, talks about the curve inversion and other catalysts that are forming his core market view. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says to set up for further volatility ahead. Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist, if you're not expecting a recession in Europe, you haven't been paying attention. Peter Trubowitz, LSE Professor of International Relations & Chatham House Associate Fellow, expects the war in Ukraine to continue to be a long slog. Jordan Rochester, Nomura International G-10 FX Strategist, says the FX market is mispricing Europe. Leland Miller, China Beige Book International Founder & CEO, says China's official data have gotten a lot more honest. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, details why he thinks the S&P 500 is topping out, and where he sees vulnerability in the market. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jeff Lacker, Former Richmond Fed President, says the Fed should be willing to tolerate a recession to get inflation down. Rich Greenfield, LightShed Partners Partner and Media and Technology Analyst, believes that Elon Musk will be forced to buy Twitter. Lauren Sauer, University of Nebraska Medical Center Associate Professor and Special Pathogens Research Network Director, says we must bring trust back into vaccines. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, expects only a mild and brief recession. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bill Dudley, Bloomberg Opinion, Bloomberg Economics Senior Adviser & Former New York Fed President, expects not deep recession in the US. Abby Joseph Cohen, Columbia Business School Professor & Retired Goldman Sachs Partner, says market valuations matter again. Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer, says sell-side analysts have stopped doing work since the era of Reg FD. Tim Gould, IEA Chief Energy Economist, says we haven't been putting enough capital into the energy sector in recent years. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, says stocks are no longer priced to perfection and speculation and froth have been rooted out of the market.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, says he is extremely confident the Fed can bring down inflation. Anna Han, Wells Fargo Securities Equity Strategist, says it will be difficult for the Fed to achieve a soft landing but recession chances are still low. Joseph Feldman, Telsey Advisory Group Senior Managing Director, says Target's profit cut is "transitory." Kit Juckes, Societe General Chief FX Strategist, doesn't see how Europe avoids a recession. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, explains why he's currently increasing his net long exposure and also his view on the NY Yankees.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to a special live audio broadcast of Trading Spaces, hosted by Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, and Danny Moses on Twitter Spaces. On Friday afternoon into the close, the guys hopped on Twitter to discuss the stock market sell-off, big tech earnings, the bank bloodbath, and the Fed meeting next week. They are joined by Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners to discuss the state of financials, and Cannabis stocks. Later, Danny's "Big Short" colleagues Vincent Daniel and Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital hop on to give their perspective on the markets and outlook for oil stocks.

Welcome to a special live audio broadcast of Trading Spaces, hosted by Dan Nathan, Guy Adami and Danny Moses on Twitter Spaces. On Friday afternoon into the close, the guys hopped on Twitter to discuss the stock market sell-off, big tech earnings, the bank bloodbath, and the Fed meeting next week. They are joined by Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners to discuss the state of financials, and Cannabis stocks. Later, Danny's "Big Short" colleagues Vincent Daniel and Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital hop on to give their perspective on the markets and outlook for oil stocks.

John Bolton, Former U.S. National Security Advisor and The Foundation for American Security and Freedom Chairman, says the U.S. and its allies are not doing enough to support Ukraine. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, says companies have gotten much better at combating margin pressures. Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi Chief U.S. Economist, says it is important to watch the housing sector to see the impact of interest rates on the economy. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, explains why he thinks markets are underpricing risk. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Seth Jones, Center for Strategic and International Studies International Security Program Director, doesn't see Russia looking for an off-ramp that would be acceptable to NATO or the Ukranian people. Elsa Lignos, RBC Global Head of FX Strategy, discusses the outlook for the Euro. Megan Greene, Kroll Institute Global Chief Economist, says we're likely to see stagflation in Europe. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, details his philosophy for navigating the market amid so much uncertainty. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Patrick Harker, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President, says we need to move now to control inflation; advocating four 25-BP hikes this year. Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Wealth Management Head of Equities & Capital Market Advisory, says 2022 is the year to be selective. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, says 2022 is going to be a down year for equities and January was the first shot across the bow. Sebastian Mallaby, "The Power Law" Author & CFR Senior Fellow for International Economics, discusses his research into the mysteries of the venture capital industry. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group & GZERO Media President, Elizabeth Economy, Hoover Institute Senior Fellow & The World According to China Author, and Jane Harman, Wilson Center President Emerita & Former Member of Congress, discuss Eurasia Group's top risks of 2022. Ben Laidler, EToro Global Markets Strategist, says the biggest risk is not being in equities. Joshua Sharfstein, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Vice Dean, says schools taking the right precautions are a safe environment for children. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, talks about his annual, and always highly anticipated, top surprises for the year ahead. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

David Rubenstein, "Peer to Peer with David Rubenstein" Host, discusses his interview with General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Steven Mnuchin, Former U.S. Treasury Secretary, says he is opposed to the introduction of new taxes on billionaires by Democrats. Mary Barra, General Motors Chair & CEO, says the chip shortage is improving, but will likely linger into late 2022. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, explains why 3Q has been the weakest quarter of the pandemic recovery. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, says he is bearish in the market and that Main Street has diverged widely from Wall Street. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Chief Economist and Managing Director, says markets are overly optimistic on the labor market and monetary policy. Joshua Sharfstein, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Vice Dean, discusses school protocols for dealing with Covid outbreaks and the new normal of returning to work and school. Francisco Blanch, BofA Head of Global Commodities and Derivatives Research, remains constructive on commodities. Amy Wu Silverman, RBC Equity Derivatives Strategist, explains why the firm calls this the Ed Sheeran or Dave Matthews rally. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, details why he thinks ‘too many investors are underpricing risk.' Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Equities Strategist, warns of margin degradation into 2022. Esther Duflo, Nobel Prize winning Economist and Massachusetts Institute of Technology Professor, discusses her studies about poverty in the global economy. Marilyn Watson, BlackRock Head of Global Fundamental Fixed Income Strategy, says markets are already pricing in fiscal stimulus. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, details his outlook and explains why he thinks “we are at the fork in the investment road.” Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief U.S. Policy Strategist, expects a ferocious fight in the fall over the second infrastructure bill. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Richard Haass, Council on Foreign Relations President & Author, "The World: A Brief Introduction", says he is most worried about a divided America. Chris Grisanti, MAI Capital Chief Equity Strategist & Senior Portfolio Manager, says the confrontation over tech in China is a big concern. Ben Laidler, eToro Global Markets Strategist, says the growth story still has further to go. Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets Chief U.S. Economist, says wage pressures are starting to build. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President details the bearish factors threatening the market, factors that he says most investors are missing. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Daniel Yergin, IHS Markit Vice Chairman, says we are in the post-pandemic economy right now. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President says, “I think we're making an important top,” detailing why he thinks upside reward is dwarfed by downside risk. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief U.S. Policy Strategist, says inflation is real vulnerability for Joe Biden's presidency. Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief U.S. Economist, says 2022 will be the year of deceleration. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Leon Cooperman, Omega Family Office Chairman & CEO, says inflation is going to surprise the Federal Reserve and they will be forced to raise rates in 2022. Mary Barra, General Motors CEO, says the company is working on ensuring a secure supply chain amid the global chip shortage. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners Founder & President, talks about "derisking" and the sign posts he looks for as he times his moves. David Rubenstein, The Carlyle Group Co-Founder, discusses his interview with U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. Michael Feroli, JPMorgan Securities Chief U.S. Economist, is expecting a big number for payrolls Friday. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Mark Schweiker, Former Pennsylvania Governor, says there is a consensus in Washington around a broad stimulus package post-election cycle. Christopher Harvey, Wells Fargo Securities Head of Equity Strategy, says the Senate race is most important because that is where fiscal stimulus and taxes come in to play. Jim Bianco, Bianco Research President, sees Treasury yields moving lower in the short term but expects higher yields going into mid-2021. Julie Norman, University College London Professor, says a Biden administration would bring a more stable and predictable foreign policy for the United States. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, discusses where he's investing in the wake of the election. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Deborah Fuller, University of Washington School of Medicine Microbiology Professor, discusses the efficacy of Covid-19 vaccines on new strains. George Magnus, Oxford University China Centre Research Associate, says the new U.S. administration will bring a change in tone towards China but not of substance. Republican Congressman Bryan Steil of Wisconsin calls for targeted relief measures. Democratic Congressman Dwight Evans of Pennsylvania says Congress can balance virus relief and the impeachment trial. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, says pandemic-era central banking has put earnings season on the back burner. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Jim Caron, Morgan Stanley Portfolio Manager, thinks that calls for inflation and significantly higher yields are very premature. Kathleen Smith, Renaissance Capital Co-Founder & Partner, says 2020 will be a year in the record books for IPOs. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, says it has been a horrible environment for shorting stocks. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder and Peer-to-Peer Host, discusses his interview with World Economic Forum Founder Klaus Schwab. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

cRudy Giuliani, Former New York Mayor and President Trump's Personal Lawyer, says he got another negative Covid test result yesterday. Josh Wingrove, Bloomberg News White House Reporter gives an update on the 2020 campaign trail. Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Investment Management Chief Strategist, discusses how the U.S. presidential election could impact market dynamics. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, explains why the "Biden Bump" could levitate stocks over the near term. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Pat Foye, MTA Chairman and CEO, says not funding the MTA will stunt and thwart economic recovery and job creation all over New York. James Sweeney, Credit Suisse Chief Economist, says the incremental slowdown in the U.S. was caused by a surge in virus cases, but forecasts a strong double digit increase in third-quarter GDP. Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon Investment Management Chief Strategist, says it is wise to be cautiously bullish in this current market. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, discusses the factors that could send us into a bear market this year. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Steve Eisman, Eisman Group Neuberger Berman Senior Portfolio Manager, discusses the companies he is currently shorting. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, talks about parabolic moves, like the one in Tesla, reminding they almost always return to the point of breakout; also Kass explains why he thinks shares of Amazon will trade $5000 a share by 2023. John Hudak, Brookings Senior Fellow Governance Studies, hopes this is the end of the Iowa caucuses. Francisco Blanch, Bank of America Head of Global Commodities & Derivatives Research, says that the Fed cutting rates has created a huge tailwind for risk assets and commodities. Lindsey Piegza, Stifel Chief Economist, says moderate growth is the new normal for 2020. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Shahab Jalinoos, Credit Suisse Head of FX and Macro Trading Strategy, observes rising interest rates across the Eurozone area. Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief U.S. Policy Strategist, was surprised to see House Speaker Nancy Pelosi may delay next steps in the impeachment process. Dennis Gartman, The Gartman Letter Author, discusses his decision to retire his famous morning note. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President & Founder, calls in to ask a question to Gartman. And Margaret Franklin, CFA Institute CEO & President, says she still sees high demand for chartered holders. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Gene Frieda, PIMCO Global Strategist, and Therese Raphael, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, discuss why markets don't price in the scenario of a no-Brexit. Richard Haass, Council on Foreign Relations President, says Trump has remade the Republican party. Brian Jacobsen, Wells Capital Management Chief Portfolio Strategist, says one of the cardinal rules of successful investment is diversification and patience. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, expects the spend line of Disney to ramp up, causing the share price to stumble.  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Gideon Rose, Foreign Affairs Magazine Editor and Peter G. Peterson Chair, discusses the latest edition of Foreign Affairs. Andrea Felsted, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist, talks Brexit fears for U.K. retailers. Paul Romer, 2018 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences Co-Recipient, says people have less confidence in science than they had 20 years ago. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, is worried about the lack of cooperation between global superpowers.  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, explains why his forward looking concerns are plentiful. Robert D. Kaplan, Eurasia Group Senior Advisor and Center for a New American Security Fellow, observes that world leaders do not know how to analyze and predict President Trump ahead of his visit to Europe next week. Benn Steil, CFR Senior Fellow and Director of International Economics, says Russia is ratcheting up its actions on NATO's borders. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, discusses how the U.S. could de-escalate and avoid a major trade war.  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

David Bailin, Citi Private Bank Global Head of Investments, says Brazil is early in its economic recovery. Elsa Lignos, RBC Global Head of FX Strategy, thinks currencies are doing what they're supposed to do as shock absorbers. Steve Keen, Kingston University Professor, says the vibrant stage of American capitalism was the forties to the sixties.Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, says the complexion of the market seems to be changing.  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Bob Sinche, Amherst Pierpont Securities Global Strategist, advises to be disciplined when reacting to market volatility. Rich Greenfield, BTIG Media and Technology Analyst, thinks the pressure on Facebook's stock is overdone. Miranda Carr, Haitong International Research Executive Director, says Xi's vision for China has changed. Chad Hart, Iowa State University Associate Professor of Economics and Crop Markets Specialist, says over the past 5 years, we've seen a dramatic decline in net farming income. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, says the market has changed dramatically in the past decade. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Stephen Roach, Yale University Professor, says the U.S. and China need to restart their economic dialogue. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, thinks Larry Kudlow's new role as National Economic Council Director will be marketing the administration's policies. Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist, says investors are looking at the trade tariffs with a big question mark. Stephanie Wissink, Jefferies Research Analyst & Managing Director, says a number of toy vendors will feel the loss of Toys R Us; the winners will be Amazon and WalMart.  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, says we haven't had portfolio disruption yet but he think it's to come. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, says the lesson learned in this week's liquidity event is that history rhymes. Paul Sweeney, Bloomberg Intelligence U.S. Director of Research, says Twitter is not a growth story but it is an engagement story. Admiral Stavridis, Dean of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, says a military parade is not a good deal for troops. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Doug Kass, president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc., tells Tom Keene and David Gura how a short seller survives during a bull market. Bill Lee, chief economist at the Milken Institute, says a John Taylor Fed chairmanship would give us more predictable framework than current Federal Open Market Committee language does. Finally, Gideon Rose, editor of Foreign Affairs magazine, says that when it comes to foreign policy, it's better to watch than listen.  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Doug Kass, president of Seabreeze Partners, says headwinds in the banking industry could be a "toxic cocktail." Prior to that, Peter Hooper, Deutsche Bank's chief economist, says the ECB will be tapering further by the end of the year. Charles Peabody, an analyst at Compass Point Research, says Jamie Dimon's tech investments have put JPMorgan at an advantage. Dan Yergin, IHS' vice chairman, says big oil will go through soul-searching. Finally, Texas Representative Kevin Brady says the Senate will resolve their differences and pass health care. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com