Podcast appearances and mentions of george magnus

At this month's legislative session China announced policies to maintain GDP growth at 5%, boost consumption and the private sector and promote AI and high tech industry, from quantum computing to the low altitude economy. But will it be enough to reassure consumers and investors — and does the higher than GDP growth increase in defence spending in the budget, and the continuing crackdown on corruption hint that the leadership's top priorities are still security and stability rather than growth? Professor Steve Tsang, Director of the SOAS China Institute and co-author of the recent book, The Political Thought of Xi Jinping, and George Magnus, former Chief Economist at UBS, and a Research Associate at SOAS and at the Oxford University China Centre, share their views.________________________________________The views and opinions expressed on this podcast are those of the speakers and are not necessarily those of the SOAS China Institute.________________________________________SOAS China Institute (SCI) SCI Blog SCI on X SCI on LinkedIn SCI on Facebook SCI on Instagram ________________________________________Music credit: Sappheiros / CC BY 3.0

Donald Trump is talking about the 'Gulf of America' but in reality the US is no where near as powerful as it once was.Kate Lamble is joined by this week's cover writer Robert D. Kaplan, as well as George Magnus and Jonny Ball. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Since the sweeping reforms of the 1980s, China's rapid industrialisation and extraordinary growth have transformed it into a true global power. But the engine of China's economic miracle is starting to sputter. Sluggish demand, mounting debt, and unfavourable demographics suggest trouble ahead. We're joined by George Magnus, a leading China expert who has written extensively on the risks facing the world's second-largest economy.And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Can we trust China's economic statistics? ---Thank you to Raisin UK for sponsoring this episode. Raisin UK is a free, easy-to-use online savings platform, with savings accounts from over 40 FSCS-protected banks and building societies. Simply register, apply to open as many accounts as you like, and manage everything with a single login. Elevate your savings game today. What's more, for a limited time only, you can receive a £100 bonus when you register and fund your first savings account with a minimum of £10,000 using the code "SAVINGS100". For more details, please visit the link: raisin.co.uk/pensioncraft ---Get in touch

In October 2023, the European Union launched an investigation into whether Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers were receiving unfair subsidies which give them an advantage in the market. In June 2024, the European Commission announced the preliminary conclusion that it would levy additional tariffs of between 17.4ؘ–38% on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). This would be placed on top of an existing 10% import duty. These duties are set to provisionally come into effect in early July, with a proposal for permanent measures expected in November, subject to a decisive vote. In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Yuyun Zhan sits down with Alicia García-Herrero and George Magnus to discuss the EV investigation, the impact of China's industrial policy on its mass-production growth model, why this approach is now facing resistance, and the broader implications of China's overcapacity for the EU and the global market. Relevant publications: García-Herrero, A. and R. Schindowski (2024) ‘Unpacking China's industrial policy and its implications for Europe', Working Paper 11/2024, Bruegel Red Flags: Why Xi's China is in Jeopardy, book by George Magnus The story of China's electric vehicle industry, Bruegel podcast with Giuseppe Porcaro, Alicia García-Herrero and Zeyi Yang This episode is part of the ZhōngHuá Mundus series of The Sound of Economics. ZhōngHuá Mundus is a newsletter by Bruegel, bringing you monthly analysis of China in the world, as seen from Europe. Sign up now to receive it in your mailbox!

Tell us what you think of The Bunker in our Listener Survey – five respondents will get the Bunker mug or t-shirt of their choice.  It's been ten years since China launched its colossal Belt and Road initiative, intended to usher in a new era of trade and economic growth. Has it achieved what it set out to? Or is progress starting to ebb? Alex Andreou is joined by George Magnus, an associate at the China Centre at Oxford University and author of Red Flags: Why Xi's China Is In Jeopardy, in The Bunker.  • “People thought that the Belt and Road was a very planned and thought out centralised project from Beijing - it's really nothing of the sort.” - George Magnus  • “China sees the Belt and Road as fertile ground to get countries to align with its own governance priorities.” - George Magnus  www.patreon.com/bunkercast  Written and presented by Alex Andreou. Producer: Eliza Davis Beard and Liam Tait. Audio production: Robin Leeburn. Managing Editor: Jacob Jarvis. Music by Kenny Dickinson. THE BUNKER is a Podmasters Production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Before celebrating the Thanksgiving holiday, listen to some of Gerry Baker's most intriguing interviews from this year, including BlackRock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink, economist and China expert George Magnus, former national security adviser to President Donald Trump John Bolton, Middle East scholar Reuel Marc Gerecht, former Attorney General Bill Barr, and political science professor Patrick Deneen.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

China's currency, the yuan, has seen its value against the US dollar depreciate sharply this year. That may reflect foreign disillusionment with China's economic prospects and policy making. Many investors are also unnerved by a regulatory crackdown on technology companies, with the Communist Party insisting on more centralised control. In this podcast,  George Magnus, a research associate at the SOAS China Institute and Oxford University's China Centre, discusses China's economic challenges with regular host, Duncan Bartlett.

The US is scrambling to “de-risk” from China by fortifying US supply chains. But China has been de-risking from the US for over a decade. Ed D'Agostino speaks with former UBS chief economist George Magnus about what this geopolitical transformation means for Western investors and the huge changes happening at China's Central Bank.

In the winter of 770 the Chinese poet Du Fu wrote his final words, ‘Excitement gone, now nothing troubles me…/ Rushing madly at last where do I go?' Looking back at his life and work, the historian Michael Wood retraces Du Fu's journeys across China. He lived through war and famine, but his poetry found beauty and grandeur in the minutiae of everyday life and the natural world. Michael Wood tells Tom Sutcliffe how Du Fu's poetry has the timeless quality of Shakespeare or Dante. The travel writer Noo Saro-Wiwa goes on a different journey into China, finding out about the lives of Africans living there today. In Black Ghosts she traces the waves of immigration from the 1950s onwards, which benefitted African students and economic migrants who found Europe closed to them. As she meets those from all walks of life – from visa-overstayers to top surgeons – she considers the precarity of their lives, and the ultimate power imbalance in Sino-African relations. China is Africa's largest trading partner and in the past China has lent huge sums for infrastructure in its Belt and Road project. But as China's economy begins to falter, the economist and China specialist George Magnus looks at the implications. Abroad many African countries are deeply indebted, and at home after 40 years of China's seemingly irrepressible rise, the country is now facing a surge in urban youth unemployment and signs of deflation. Producer: Katy Hickman

15 năm sau vụ ngân hàng Mỹ Lehman Brother's phá sản gây ra một cuộc khủng hoảng tài chính toàn cầu, đến lượt Trung Quốc bị lôi vào vòng xoáy của một cuộc khoảng địa ốc âm ỉ từ 2021. Tại một quốc gia mà hơn 1/4 tín dụng ngân hàng « rót » vào các công trình xây dựng và các tập đoàn trong ngành chiếm 20 % trị giá trên sàn chứng khoán thì mối lo có lẽ lại càng lớn. Trong bài tham luận đăng trên nhật báo Le Monde hôm 22/09/2023 kinh tế gia Victor Lequillerier thuộc cơ quan tư vấn BSI Paris báo động, tại Trung Quốc, « chỉ từ nay đến 2025, 13 tỉnh thành với trọng lượng kinh tế 20 % GDP toàn quốc bị đe dọa mất khả năng thanh toán ». Đâu là liên hệ giữa khủng hoảng bất động sản với nguy cơ « vỡ nợ » ở cấp chính quyền địa phương Trung Quốc ? Nợ bất động sản tại Trung Quốc là bao nhiêu và liệu Ngân Hàng Trung Ương, dưới sự chỉ thị của đảng Cộng Sản Trung Quốc, có còn khả năng can thiệp nữa hay không, tránh một « thảm họa » về kinh tế và xã hội ?Trên kênh truyền hình Pháp Public Sénat, hôm 13/09/2023 nhà kinh tế học Sylvie Matelly, phó giám đốc Viện Quan Hệ Quốc Tế và Chiến Lược IRIS của Pháp đã giải thích về liên hệ giữa một cuộc khủng hoảng bất động sản và ngân hàng : « Các cuộc khủng hoảng tài chính thường do khủng hoảng địa ốc mà ra. Tại sao vậy ? Đơn giản là khi đi mua nhà, thường người ta phải đi vay ngân hàng. Rủi ro ở đây đối với ngân hàng là nhà đất mất giá. Điều đó có nghĩa là thị trường bất động sản mà sụp đổ thì tiếp theo đó là giới tài chính, ngân hàng bị rơi vào bẫy nợ. Hệ quả sau cùng là khủng hoảng kinh tế ». « Cá nằm trên thớt »Nợ của công ty môi giới địa ốc Trung Quốc Evergrande lớn hơn GDP của Hy Lạp. Country Garden, một cái tên lớn trong ngành trong thế « cá nằm trên thớt », vừa tạm thời thoát hiểm tránh phải tuyên bố phá sản nhưng không biết sẽ cầm cự bao lâu với số nợ gần 200 tỷ đô la. Chi nhánh ngân hàng của Zhongrong, một trong ba ông khổng lồ trong ngành tháng 8/2023 đã không thể thanh toán cho khách hàng đúng thời hạn do « thiếu tiền mặt ».Vào lúc bất động sản bị đóng băng, thì các chính quyền địa phương không biết phải làm gì với gần 650 triệu mét vuông nhà ở đã xây dựng hoàn tất nhưng bị bỏ trống vì không có người mua. Với diện tích đó, nếu tình trung bình một căn hộ 90 thước vuông, thì trên cả nước Trung Quốc có đến hơn 7 triệu căn hộ đợi chủ nhân vào ở. Theo thống kê chính thức hồi tháng 7/2023 « khoảng 20 % nhà mới xây tại các khu chung cư đang bị bỏ trống ». Vỡ bóng địa ốcHình ảnh những chung cư, thậm chí là những khu phố còn mới nguyên nhưng không có bóng người qua lại đó đang để lộ một thực tế đó là Trung Quốc đang bị vỡ bong bóng địa ốc. Bà Sylvie Matelly của viện IRS nhắc lại ba nét đặc thù lĩnh vực bất động sản ở Trung Quốc :« Đầu tiên hết, đây là một lĩnh vực được Nhà nước tài trợ một cách rất hào phóng. Điểm thứ nhì là hầu hết các nhà thầu và cơ quan môi giới địa ốc đều tham nhũng, đều phải biết chi tiền đúng chỗ và phải có những mối quan hệ tốt với các giới chức địa phương. Điểm thứ ba là Trung Quốc không có những chỉ số đáng tin cậy về những chuyển biến trên các thị trường. Thị trường địa ốc cũng vậy. Điều đó có nghĩa là dân chúng vẫn tiếp tục đi vay để mua nhà và phải mua với giá đắt trong lúc mà thị trường đã bão hòa. Các công ty xây dựng gặp khó khăn và không thể trao hàng đúng thời hạn… nhưng những điều đó thì người đi mua không được biết. Cho nên là quả bóng địa ốc vẫn được thổi lên ».  Trên đài phát thanh France Culture (ngày 02/09/2023) Agatha Kratz tổng biên tập tạp chí China Analysis giải thích thêm về nguyên nhân dẫn tới hiện tượng « vỡ bong bóng địa ốc » tại Trung Quốc : « Có hai yếu tố then chốt : ngành địa ốc dư thừa tiền, đã có rất nhiều tín dụng đổ vào các tập đoàn địa ốc, vào các nhà thầu ,vào các công ty môi giới … Các công ty liên quan đã lợi dụng tiền rẻ để phát triển và cứ mở hết công trường này đến công trường khác. Cho đến khi nhu cầu không còn tăng mạnh như trước nữa thì những công ty như Evergrande hay Country Garden … vẫn tiếp tục huy động thêm vốn và mở thêm các chương trình bán nhà cho tư nhân. Quý 3 năm 2021 khi mà khủng hoảng địa ốc tại Trung Quốc bắt đầu nhen nhúm, giới trong ngành đã thẩm định là tốc độ xây dựng cao gấp đôi so với nhu cầu thực sự. Kế tới là ở Trung Quốc trung bình 80 % tài sản của một hộ gia đình là bất động sản. Họ dồn hết cả tiền tiết kiệm vào đấy. Thị trường tài chính của Trung Quốc còn rất hạn chế cho nên những người có tiền họ chỉ biết mua nhà. Họ cũng không thể giao dịch để đầu tư ở ngoại quốc như dân ở Mỹ hay châu Âu ».Kinh tế Trung Quốc là nạn nhân của chính mìnhMột số nhà bình luận của phương Tây lo ngại khủng hoảng địa ốc Trung Quốc ảnh hưởng đến kinh tế toàn cầu, bởi nếu như lĩnh vực bất động sản đẩy kinh tế Trung Quốc vào suy thoái, đương nhiên các nước xuất khẩu hàng hóa và nhất nguyên liệu, năng lượng cho Trung Quốc bị vạ lây. Trái lại, tổng biên tập tạp chí chuyên phân tích về tình hình Trung Quốc, Agatha Kratz nhấn mạnh tác động tai hại trước hết là đối với Trung Quốc ở nhiều cấp, bởi nợ của Trung Quốc là do các ngân hàng, do người dân Trung Quốc và các chính quyền địa phương nước này nắm giữ.« Bất động sản chiếm 1/4 GDP của Trung Quốc. Các chính quyền địa phương chiếm khoảng 15 % tổng đầu tư vào cơ sở hạ tầng, từ các khu chung cư hay các trung tâm thương mại … Mô hình tăng trưởng của Trung Quốc dựa trên đầu tư như vậy đã phát triển mạnh và nhất là kể từ những năm 2008-2009, sau vụ Lehman Brother's sụp đổ. Đó là thời điểm xuất khẩu bị chựng lại dưới tác động của khủng hoảng tài chính toàn cầu và Trung Quốc phải đi tìm một lực đẩy mới để bảo đảm tăng trưởng, để bảo đảm công việc làm cho người dân. Các chính quyền địa phương đã huy động vốn và ồ ạt đầu tư vào các công trình xây dựng. Điều đó giải thích vì sao hiện tại tổng nợ của Nhà nước Trung Quốc ở cấp trung ương và của các chính quyền địa phương lên tới hơn 200 % so với GDP nước này. Hơn nữa chúng ta biết đầu tư tại Trung Quốc không có hiệu quả. Cụ thể là chính quyền địa phương đi vay với lãi suất ngân hàng là 5 % để tài trợ cho những chương trình phát triển cơ sở hạ tầng. Nhưng lãi thu về được từ những chương trình đó sau nhiều năm chỉ là 1 % mà thôi. Hiện tại nhiều thành phố, tỉnh thành mất khả năng thanh toán cho các chủ nợ hay ít ra là họ không thể tiếp tục mô hình kinh tế đó ».45 % nguồn thu vào của các chính quyền địa phương là nhờ các giấy phép chuyển nhượng đất đai cho các công trình xây dựng. Theo báo cáo của Quỹ Tiền Tệ Quốc Tế hồi tháng 2/2023 nợ « không được thống kê chính thức » của các chính quyền địa phương tăng 30 % trong vòng 2 năm.Nếu tính cả nợ « Chính thức và không được thống kê chính thức » tức là của tư nhân, của cấp trung ương và các chính quyền địa phương Trung Quốc thì tính đến cuối 2022, con số này đã vượt ngưỡng 9.200 tỷ đô la, tương đương với « một nửa GDP » của nền kinh tế thứ hai toàn cầu.500 tỷ đô la để trả nợ ngân hàngMột công ty Trung Quốc chuyên nghiên cứu các dữ liệu tài chính Wind được báo Le Monde hồi tháng 3/2023 trích dẫn báo động, chỉ riêng trong năm nay các chính quyền địa phương ở Hoa Lục sẽ phải huy động 500 tỷ đô la chỉ để « thanh toán nợ ngân hàng ». Trong ba năm dịch Covid hoành hành, các hoạt động kinh tế bị đình trệ dưới tác động các đợt phong tỏa kéo dài, cùng lúc các phí tổn về y tế thì đã tăng vọt với các chương trình xét nghiệm mỗi ngày đẩy nợ ở cấp chính quyền địa phương Trung Quốc lên cao.Đầu 2023, Bắc Kinh « mở cửa » trở lại sau ba năm áp dụng chủ trương « zero Covid » Trung Quốc cũng như là cộng đồng quốc tế đã tưởng chừng tăng trưởng và thiêu thụ nhanh chóng phục hồi nhưng các chỉ số trong quý 2/2023 gây thất vọng.Bức tranh kinh tế của Trung Quốc lại càng ảm đạm hơn vào lúc mà nợ đáo hạn của các chính quyền địa phương, của các tập đoàn địa ốc càng lúc càng cận kề, thị trường bất động sản Trung Quốc vẫn tiếp tục đổ dốc. Cơ quan tư vấn BSI nghi ngờ đặt câu hỏi liệu Trung Quốc có thể huy động « từ 10 đến 22 điểm trong GDP để thanh toán nợ » hay không ?Có một điều chắc chắn là 15 năm sau Lehman Brother's, những chuyển biến trong lĩnh vực bất động sản đang đặt giới tài chính và ngân hàng Trung Quốc trong thế « ngồi trên lửa ». Ngày 17/08/2023 họp báo tại Bắc Kinh các giới chức liên quan khẳng định « làm tất cả, nhất quyết chống lại rủi ro khủng hoảng lan rộng ». Sáng lập viên quỹ đầu cơ Bridgewater tương đối lạc quan tin vào cam kết đó bởi Nhà nước Trung Quốc bắt buộc sẽ « mua lại » nợ khó đòi của ngành địa ốc.Khác hẳn với trường hợp của Hoa Kỳ 15 năm trước đây trong vụ Lehman Brother's, các chủ nợ của Trung Quốc là chính « các định chế và công dân nước này », hơn thế nữa Đảng và « trung ương » kiểm soát tất cả nên lại càng dễ dàng can thiệp bất kỳ lúc nào, tránh để xảy ra kịch bản « tệ hại nhất ». Điều đó không cấm cản « khủng hoảng địa ốc ở Trung Quốc sẽ kéo dài » như giáo sư George Magnus đại học Anh Oxford tiên đoán trên báo Hồng Kong South China Morning Post. 

Is China In Jeopardy? China's extraordinary rise to global superpower once appeared to be unstoppable, but now the country is facing a number of difficulties, sending shockwaves throughout the Chinese economy. On this week's podcast, IEA Director of Public Policy and Communications Matthew Lesh sits down with George Magnus, Associate at the China Centre at the University of Oxford.

Faced with a real estate crisis, record high youth unemployment, and massive debts at the local government level, how much economic trouble is the People's Republic of China in? On this episode of the Free Expression Podcast, economist and China expert George Magnus tells Wall Street Journal editor at large Gerry Baker about whether China under Xi Jinping's hardline approach is headed down the same road to collapse as the Soviet Union and what are the long-term consequences for the world economy.   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

China's economy has slipped into deflation as consumer prices declined in July for the first time in more than two years.Ballooning local government debt, weak import and exports, challenges in the housing market, and growing youth unemployment are all contributing to the country's downturn. On the Sky News Daily Dominic Waghorn speaks to our Asia correspondent Helen-Ann Smith about why China's economy is running out of steam. Plus, George Magnus, economist and associate at Oxford University's China Centre talks about the potential impacts for the global economy ahead of the G20 summit.Podcast producers: Emma-Rae Woodhouse, Sydney Pead and Soila Apparicio Podcast promotion producer: David Chipakupaku Senior podcast producer: Annie Joyce Editor: Paul Stanworth

Venturing Across the Abyss: The Bridge of Hope w/ George Magnus⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️ 

The hawks call it decoupling; the more dovish derisking. But it all means the same thing: imposing trade barriers between China and the West. Neil and Jonathan talk to China expert George Magnus about China's 2001 WTO accession, why the West's gamble on trade and democratisation failed, and also whether you can unscramble the trade relationship.Presented by Jonathan Ford and Neil Collins.With George Magnus.Produced and edited by Nick Hilton for Podot.In association with Briefcase.News Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On The Front Porch - George Magnus [00:00:00] On The Front Porch - George Magnus [00:12:10] 2023-5-1 16:39:39 - Tuesday OFP 2 [00:23:53] 2023-5-1 16:41:17 - Tuesday OFP 3 [00:34:20] 2023-5-1 16:42:57 - Tuesday OFP 4See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China has this week reopened its borders for the first time in nearly three years. There have been scenes of joy and relief for many Chinese citizens after years of isolation. Ed Butler asks whether this is a turning point, as some are describing. What are the longer term economic threats for the so-called engine of global growth? And how does that impact the rest of the world? Ed speaks to two young Chinese professionals - one in Beijing and one in Shanghai, who are feeling a mixture of relief and concern about the current situation. George Magnus is a research associate at Oxford University's China Centre - he tells Ed that the current Covid infection wave could spread right across the country, to smaller cities and rural areas. It's difficult to get the true economic picture of what's happening in China, but Shehzad Qazi, managing director of the China Beige Book, the biggest private data collection network on China, says growth turned negative last year, with demand crashing and factories forced to close down. Presenter/producer: Ed Butler (Photo: A woman at an airport in China after restrictions were lifted. Credit: EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock)

As one of the world's biggest economies, trouble in China means trouble for us all. China's stringent Covid policy has seen businesses lock down, having a huge prolonged impact on trade and international relations. From global development to the war in Ukraine, George Magnus, author of Red Flags: Why Xi's China is in Jeopardy joins Alex Andreou in The Bunker to tell us how the ripples of Chinese intervention spread far wider than we may imagine. "We're all worried and thinking a lot about what's going on in China. It's a huge economy and it has a huge impact on trade and international economic relations." “You'd need huge political reform as well and that's just not going to happen, especially not under Xi Jinping” www.patreon.com/bunkercast Written and presented by Alex Andreou. Lead Producer: Jacob Jarvis. Producers: Alex Rees and Jet Gerbertson. Assistant producer: Kasia Tomasiewicz. Audio production by Jade Bailey. Music: Kenny Dickinson. Group editor: Andrew Harrison. THE BUNKER is a Podmasters Production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

China's imports and exports jolted to a halt earlier this month - marking the first contraction since the pandemic struck in 2020. At a time of worldwide surging inflation and central banks everywhere raising interest rates to painful levels, the “miracle of growth” that powered much of the world's prosperity these last two decades is causing growing concern. For the second installment of our three-part series looking in depth at China at a crossroads, One Decision considers the economic crises that could be facing the country - and the world. George Magnus, former Chief Economist at UBS, now author and research associate at the China Centre, Oxford University, and the School of Oriental and African Studies, London, explores whether China can bounce back in the coming months.

As Joe Biden holds his first face-to-face meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping since he became president, we speak to George Magnus, Associate at the China Centre at Oxford University, about how the countries economies are faring. We hear from the BBC's business correspondent Archana Shukla in Colombo after Sri Lanka's new Government set out it's budget plans for the country. Former Finance Minister for the country Eran Wickramaratne gave us his reaction. Molly Jane Zuckerman, content czar at CoinMarketCap, tells about calls for more regulation in the Cryptocurrency market, in the wake of the collapse of the crypto currency exchange FTX. With Mozambique exporting it's first liquefied natural gas we speak to Claudio Descalzi, the Chief Executive of Eni the company mining the gas.

A display of raw power at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, as Xi Jinping has his predecessor dragged off the podium. So how much should we in the West be afraid of the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao? From the clothes we wear to the phones in our pockets, to the videos we post on TikTok, China is part of how we live our lives, so should we be concerned at the push for global dominance of the 21st century's new superpower? There's a move in Washington, London and Brussels to disengage, but is that even possible now, or are we already in too deep? George Magnus, research associate at Oxford University's China Centre, and at SOAS walks Phil and Roger through the risks and possibilities. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stocks surged for a second straight day, with all three major U.S. equity indexes rising more than 2% on what seems to be rising hope the Federal Reserve will indeed pivot from its aggressively hawkish inflation-fighting stance. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is considering an output cut of more than a million barrels per day, a historic move that could push crude oil back toward the $100-per-barrel mark. With the world's most important cartel meeting in Vienna on Wednesday to decide the next phase of production policy, Maggie Lake welcomes Tony Greer of TG Macro to talk about what's happening with energy and the broader commodities space and what it means for markets and the global economy. We also hear from George Magnus about the impact of “zero Covid” on China's economy. Watch the full interview featuring George Magnus and Maggie Lake here: https://rvtv.io/3yeafro.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Former UBS chief economist George Magnus joins Izabella Kaminska for dim sum at Royal China restaurant in Baker Street, London. They discuss the future of Sino-Western relations, productivity challenges for the West and the future of Taiwan. The podcast was recorded on July 6, before Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan on August 2.

China's property market accounts for something between 20 and 29 per cent of the country's total GDP. The seemingly never-ending rise of residential blocks were how ordinary people like my family could see and touch China's miraculous economic growth. Home ownership was to be expected, especially for young men looking to marry and start a family. Across the country, 70 per cent of household wealth is held in real estate. But in recent months, China's property hasn't been so hot. The sector has shrunk 7 per cent year on year. Developers have run out of money to complete complexes that they've already sold; while consumers across dozens of cities are refusing to pay their mortgages in protest.  'The thing about real estate is that it's intensely pro-cyclical – everything that's good feeds on itself in the boom, and everything that's bad feeds on itself in the downturn', the economist George Magnus tells me in this episode of Chinese Whispers. He's the author of  Red Flags: Why Xi's China is in Jeopardy and has been warning about the underlying problems in China's economy for years. Also on the podcast is Lulu Chen, a Bloomberg journalist reporting on real estate trends in Asia. She was one of the first to break the story of the mortgage protests.  The picture they paint is one of a long overdue bust in the cycle. Back in the 90s when the country was fresh out of communism, most housing was still allocated by the state or employers. Since then, market reforms allowed people to buy and sell their own places (China's home ownership rate is 95 per cent). The market became hotter and hotter, and the proliferation of new builds (in order to keep up with demand) meant that developers were selling homes before they'd even built them. Real estate companies ran on borrowed money. All good and well when the money was flowing. But in the last few years, the amount of corporate debt wracked up by this model concerned policymakers in Zhongnanhai, who then put forward the 'three red lines' stipulating debt controls on real estate companies. Evergrande was the first to trip, but since then, even companies thought to be in the green have fallen to an industry-wide contagion of fear and default. Then came the harsh and sudden lockdowns of zero Covid which added fuel to the fire as consumer confidence and earnings were destroyed. Tune in to hear about just how bad the situation is this time (as I suggest to George, haven't warnings sounded about China's property bubble for years now?) But remember, economic problems can quickly turn into political ones for a government that bargains for legitimacy from economic growth. I ask Lulu what the ramifications of a property bust that makes the middle class poorer could be. She sums up the stakes nicely: '[The Chinese] have this idea of the world and what it's like. Life is always going upwards, and tomorrow is going to be better than yesterday. And that's kind of the mentality of people born in the 70s, especially 80s, 90s... They've never experienced a full economic cycle… So it really changes their world view of what life is going to be like for them in the future. It really casts doubt on whether the economy and the future of the country is going to as they envisioned when they were growing up'That's why this moment is one to watch.

China's property market accounts for something between 20 and 29 per cent of the country's total GDP. The seemingly never-ending rise of residential blocks were how ordinary people like my family could see and touch China's miraculous economic growth. Home ownership was to be expected, especially for young men looking to marry and start a family. Across the country, 70 per cent of household wealth is held in real estate. But in recent months, China's property hasn't been so hot. The sector has shrunk 7 per cent year on year. Developers have run out of money to complete complexes that they've already sold; while consumers across dozens of cities are refusing to pay their mortgages in protest.  'The thing about real estate is that it's intensely pro-cyclical – everything that's good feeds on itself in the boom, and everything that's bad feeds on itself in the downturn', the economist George Magnus tells me in this episode of Chinese Whispers. He's the author of  Red Flags: Why Xi's China is in Jeopardy and has been warning about the underlying problems in China's economy for years. Also on the podcast is Lulu Chen, a Bloomberg journalist reporting on real estate trends in Asia. She was one of the first to break the story of the mortgage protests.  The picture they paint is one of a long overdue bust in the cycle. Back in the 90s when the country was fresh out of communism, most housing was still allocated by the state or employers. Since then, market reforms allowed people to buy and sell their own places (China's home ownership rate is 95 per cent). The market became hotter and hotter, and the proliferation of new builds (in order to keep up with demand) meant that developers were selling homes before they'd even built them. Real estate companies ran on borrowed money. All good and well when the money was flowing. But in the last few years, the amount of corporate debt wracked up by this model concerned policymakers in Zhongnanhai, who then put forward the 'three red lines' stipulating debt controls on real estate companies. Evergrande was the first to trip, but since then, even companies thought to be in the green have fallen to an industry-wide contagion of fear and default. Then came the harsh and sudden lockdowns of zero Covid which added fuel to the fire as consumer confidence and earnings were destroyed. Tune in to hear about just how bad the situation is this time (as I suggest to George, haven't warnings sounded about China's property bubble for years now?) But remember, economic problems can quickly turn into political ones for a government that bargains for legitimacy from economic growth. I ask Lulu what the ramifications of a property bust that makes the middle class poorer could be. She sums up the stakes nicely: '[The Chinese] have this idea of the world and what it's like. Life is always going upwards, and tomorrow is going to be better than yesterday. And that's kind of the mentality of people born in the 70s, especially 80s, 90s... They've never experienced a full economic cycle… So it really changes their world view of what life is going to be like for them in the future. It really casts doubt on whether the economy and the future of the country is going to as they envisioned when they were growing up'That's why this moment is one to watch.

Amid a wave of Covid lockdowns, there has been a sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy. We hear from one Shanghai resident about the ongoing impact of lockdowns in the city. And we explore the potential impact on the global economy with the independent economist George Magnus. Also in the programme, McDonald's is selling its business in Russia, in response to the country's invasion of Ukraine. Anne McElvoy, executive editor of The Economist talks us through the fast food giant's history in Russia. International wheat prices have reached fresh record highs as an export ban by India threatens to squeeze the world's wheat supply even further. We get a sense of how it could affect the world's largest wheat importer, Egypt, from Angy Ghannam, deputy editor of BBC Monitoring in Cairo. Plus, our regular workplace commentator, Pilita Clark, makes the case for staying quiet in work meetings. Today's edition is presented by Ed Butler, and produced by Faarea Masud, Sara Parry, and Gabriele Shaw.

China declared that its friendship with Russia had “no limits” just before Vladimir Putin plunged into Ukraine. Neil and Jonathan talk to China watcher and economist George Magnus about how the war has changed Beijing's relations with the West, and what it all means for Taiwan, financial decoupling, and whether China is still an investable place to put your cash.Presented by Jonathan Ford and Neil Collins.With George Magnus.Produced and edited by Nick Hilton for Podot.Sponsored by Briefcase.News Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Technology might move fast but the fears surrounding it remain ever-present. Back in 2015 Intelligence Squared gathered both tech evangelists and technology naysayers to debate how robots and AI might swallow up jobs in years to come. The speakers included economist, commentator and author George Magnus, internet entrepreneur and author Andrew Keen, technology entrepreneur, presidential advisor and economist Dr Pippa Malmgren, and author and journalist Walter Isaacson. Chairing the debate was journalist and broadcaster Zeinab Badawi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We add a new acronym to our alphabet soup: FOFO--Fear of Finding Out, as we discuss hyper-competition in China with economist George Magnus. Visit https://www.bubbletroublepodcast.com/ for the transcript for this episode.

Deng Xiaoping used to say, 'let some people get rich first'. Four decades on from the start of his economic experiment with marketisation, Xi Jinping is, these days, talking about 'common prosperity' instead - prosperity for the many, not the few. But what does this new economic direction mean in practice, and could it, in fact, stifle the very market forces that made so-called 'socialism with Chinese characteristics' so successful? Joining Cindy to read between the tea leaves is George Magnus, economist and author of Red Flags: Why Xi's China is in Jeopardy. We discuss how unequal China really is, what we know about common prosperity so far (e.g. arm-twisted philanthropy from billionaires like Jack Ma) and what Chinese public opinion might make of it all.

Deng Xiaoping used to say, 'let some people get rich first'. Four decades on from the start of his economic experiment with marketisation, Xi Jinping is, these days, talking about 'common prosperity' instead - prosperity for the many, not the few. But what does this new economic direction mean in practice, and could it, in fact, stifle the very market forces that made so-called 'socialism with Chinese characteristics' so successful? Joining me to read between the tea leaves is George Magnus, economist and author of Red Flags: Why Xi's China is in Jeopardy. We discuss how unequal China really is, what we know about common prosperity so far (e.g. arm-twisted philanthropy from billionaires like Jack Ma) and what Chinese public opinion might make of it all.

Manchin Holds Biden Hostage to Coal Ahead of the UN Climate Conference | Congressman Adam Schiff on the Insurrectionists in Suits Threatening Our Democracy | Xi's "Common Prosperity" Hoax and the Faltering of The Chinese Economic Miracle backgroundbriefing.org/donate twitter.com/ianmastersmedia facebook.com/ianmastersmedia

China has become a superpower through its extraordinary economic growth over four decades. It has developed a model of 'state capitalism' which has combined the strengths of both state ownership and control alongside capitalism in much of the economy. It  now faces serious  challenges: demographic ageing; an over reliance on investment; a big stock of corporate debt; resistance to further market reform. I discuss these challenges with George Magnus who is one of the leading economic and financial commentators on China and with Linda Yueh, a scholar who has written extensively on the Chinese economy. Interested in learning more? Vince's new book ‘The Chinese Conundrum: Engagement or Conflict' is available to buy online or from your local bookstore. Amazon, Bloomsbury, Waterstones, WHSmiths. To find out more about Vince, go to www.vincecable.org Follow him on Twitter: @vincecable Produced by Podcast.co

China's second largest property developer, Evergrande, is at risk of financial collapse, saddled with billions of dollars of debt. It's already defaulted on some bond repayments and has been forced to sell off assets; both Chinese and international investors are worried and Beijing is weighing the risk of spreading contagion. The BBC's Stephen McDonnell tells us about the property boom in China while Sara Hsu, a Visiting Scholar at Fudan University, tells us that the sheer size of the company is a worry. China watcher George Magnus, Research associate at Oxford University's China Centre, and at SOAS appraises the wider ramifications of the Chinese property bubble being deflated for both China and the rest of the world. (Image: Evergrande's HQ; Image credit: Reuters)

In this week's episode: is Boris Johnson running on empty or is a weak opposition giving him the momentum he needs? Kate Andrews asks in her cover story this week if Boris Johnson's government has run out of ideas – as well as petrol. Katy Balls also writes in the magazine that the opposition seems unable to take advantage of the government's failures. Katy and Kate join William on the podcast to give their takes on the state of both parties. (00:51) Also this week: what is behind China's latest crackdown on cryptocurrency? Ian Williams writes in this week's Spectator that the CCP's latest move to criminalise anyone dealing in cryptocurrency is to clear the decks for China's new, state-sanctioned digital currency. He along with George Magnus, author of Red Flags, Why Xi's China is in jeopardy speak on the podcast about Beijing's crypto future. (14:15) And finally: are the Marvel movies – good? Love them or hate them, these superhero blockbusters have dominated the box office for more than a decade and have redefined pop culture. They may not have received particularly positive reviews in the Spectator over the years, but Rosie Millard has jumped to their defence in the magazine's lead arts feature this week. She guests on the podcast to try and convince William to give Marvel a chance. (26:18)  Hosted by William Moore  Produced by Sam Holmes

In this week's episode: is Boris Johnson running on empty or is a weak opposition giving him the momentum he needs? Kate Andrews asks in her cover story this week if Boris Johnson's government has run out of ideas – as well as petrol. Katy Balls also writes in the magazine that the opposition seems unable to take advantage of the government's failures. Katy and Kate join William on the podcast to give their takes on the state of both parties. (00:51) Also this week: what is behind China's latest crackdown on cryptocurrency? Ian Williams writes in this week's Spectator that the CCP's latest move to criminalise anyone dealing in cryptocurrency is to clear the decks for China's new, state-sanctioned digital currency. He along with George Magnus, author of Red Flags, Why Xi's China is in jeopardy speak on the podcast about Beijing's crypto future. (14:15) And finally: are the Marvel movies – good? Love them or hate them, these superhero blockbusters have dominated the box office for more than a decade and have redefined pop culture. They may not have received particularly positive reviews in the Spectator over the years, but Rosie Millard has jumped to their defence in the magazine's lead arts feature this week. She guests on the podcast to try and convince William to give Marvel a chance. (26:18)  Hosted by William Moore  Produced by Sam Holmes

Beijing's ambitions have been the subject of much discussion and its relationship with some countries can be described as a little "can't live with, can't live without". On the Sky News Daily podcast with Dermot Murnaghan, we are joined by former US Ambassador to NATO, Kurt Volker and George Magnus, an associate at Oxford University's China Centre as we discuss issues including security, human rights and what property firm Evergrande's debt problems could mean for President Xi Jinping.Daily podcast team:Senior podcast producer - Annie JoycePodcast researcher - Rosetta FourlagawoInterviews producer - Tatiana AldersonArchive - Simon WindsorArchive - Rob FellowesArchive - Nelly StefanovaMusic - Steven Wheeler

China's stock market is one of the only major equity indices to have posted negative returns in 2021 – reflecting the impact of political and regulatory headwinds that have thrown cold water on investors' enthusiasm for its market. In today's podcast, we are joined by George Magnus. George is an independent economist and commentator, and Research Associate at the China Centre at Oxford University and at the School of Oriental and African Studies, London. Prior to this he was the Chief Economist, and then Senior Economic Adviser at UBS Investment Bank. George's current book, Red Flags: why Xi's China is in Jeopardy was published in September 2018 by Yale University Press.

Is China's behavior towards its innovators separating the country further from the world? That's the question on everybody's mind, as the Chinese authorities continue to exert their political power over the country's rising tech companies. George Magnus, associate at the China Centre at Oxford University warns that despite increasing western interest in the Chinese market, foreign investors should be wary about political clampdowns on companies. But Angela Zhang at the University of Hong Kong, argues some of the government's actions could be seen simply as prudent regulatory moves against the power of Big Tech. And Ker Gibbs, Chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, explains how businesses are navigating this intersection between politics and commerce. Producer: Frey Lindsay. (Picture: Logo of Didi Chuxing, China's largest ride-hailing company. Picture credit: Zhang Peng/LightRocket via Getty Images)

There has been growing criticism of the confusion over changing rules about vaccine passports and self-isolation rules for key workers. Jess Phillips, Labour MP for Birmingham Yardley tells Bloomberg Westminster's Caroline Hepker and Roger Hearing she's not confident in the way the government is managing the reopening. Phillips also outlines the themes from her new book "Everything You Really Need to Know About Politics" including getting more women into parliament. George Magnus, associate at Oxford University's China Centre, joins to discuss the changing relations between China and the West, and how China is likely to respond to greater isolation. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

China's climb to the top of world economic rankings is considered a foregone conclusion in many circles, especially those inside the Chinese Communist Party. But all is not assured: Beijing faces economic and demographic challenges that make surpassing the U.S. less of a no-brainer than one might think. On this week's podcast, host Stephanie Flanders steers a lively debate on global domination between Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik and George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University's China Centre. At present, China's $14.7 trillion gross domestic product is 70% of America's $20.9 trillion economy. In China's best-case scenario, it could overtake its Western rival by 2031, according to research by Orlik and Eric Zhu, a Bloomberg economist based in Hong Kong. In a worst case scenario, a combination of stalled reforms, international isolation and financial crisis could relegate China to permanent second place. Magnus is skeptical of China's chances of passing the U.S., arguing that its most productive periods were during liberal economic reform, which is hardly the state of affairs under President Xi Jinping.  In a second segment, London-based economy reporter Lizzy Burden shares how some U.K. corporations are speaking more openly about menopause, something 1 in 4 women around the world may be facing by 2030. A rising number are leaving the workforce as a result, which is prompting business leaders to finally address the sometimes taboo subject.  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

The China Research Group was joined by experts George Magnus and Elizabeth Economy for a discussion chaired by Jeremy Hunt MP. Given some predict China will overtake the US as the world's largest economy by 2028, how should we understand China's ambitions for the next decade of its economic rise? And what does China's economic rise mean for the rest of the world? Read the transcript here.

China's global influence has increased enormously since it started opening up to the world in the early 1980s. On occasions, General Secretary Xi Jinping has suggested that his country's system is “superior” to that of other nations. China is also proud of its dominant position in sectors such as manufacturing. So how does China plan to use its power and influence? Is it trying to change the world in its own image? George Magnus, Research Associate at the SOAS China Institute, discusses China's aims with Duncan Bartlett, Editor of Asian Affairs magazine.  China In Context: Episode 8 First broadcast March 30th, 2021 

The Chinese state places great importance on national security. It believes its duty is to protect the people from foreign attack and invasion and as China's economy has grown, so has spending on the military. George Magnus, Research Associate at the SOAS China Institute, believes that as well as protecting itself from outside threats, the Chinese Communist Party also uses a national security agenda to safeguard its own power. He discusses his ideas with Duncan Bartlett, Editor of Asian Affairs magazine. China In Context: Episode 7 First broadcast 23rd March, 2021 

China often boasts that it is on target to become the world's biggest economy and that in the process it's lifting millions of people permanently out of poverty. Yet the government also acknowledges that as the population gets older, caring for the elderly creates a huge responsibility, which could have a profound effect on the economy. In this podcast, George Magnus, Research Associate at the SOAS China Institute, discusses demographics with Duncan Bartlett, Editor of Asian Affairs magazine.  China In Context: Episode 6 First broadcast 16th March, 2021

After getting off the phone with Xi Jinping, Joe Biden warned his senators that on infrastructure 'and a whole range of other things', China was spending much more than the US, and America risked being left behind. So just how interconnected is modern China and is it really a good growth model to emulate? With economist George Magnus, author of Red Flags: Why Xi's China is in Jeopardy.

After getting off the phone with Xi Jinping, Joe Biden warned his senators that on infrastructure 'and a whole range of other things', China was spending much more than the US, and America risked being left behind. So just how interconnected is modern China and is it really a good growth model to emulate? With economist George Magnus, author of Red Flags: Why Xi's China is in Jeopardy.

George Magnus, Research associate au Oxford University’s China Centre, spoke to Sean about the strange disappearance of Chinese Tech magnate, Jack Ma

Deborah Fuller, University of Washington School of Medicine Microbiology Professor, discusses the efficacy of Covid-19 vaccines on new strains. George Magnus, Oxford University China Centre Research Associate, says the new U.S. administration will bring a change in tone towards China but not of substance. Republican Congressman Bryan Steil of Wisconsin calls for targeted relief measures. Democratic Congressman Dwight Evans of Pennsylvania says Congress can balance virus relief and the impeachment trial. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, says pandemic-era central banking has put earnings season on the back burner. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Deborah Fuller, University of Washington School of Medicine Microbiology Professor, discusses the efficacy of Covid-19 vaccines on new strains. George Magnus, Oxford University China Centre Research Associate, says the new U.S. administration will bring a change in tone towards China but not of substance. Republican Congressman Bryan Steil of Wisconsin calls for targeted relief measures. Democratic Congressman Dwight Evans of Pennsylvania says Congress can balance virus relief and the impeachment trial. Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, says pandemic-era central banking has put earnings season on the back burner.

During the first ChinaTalk webinar, we will talk with George Magnus, independent economist and commentator on Chinese affairs, Research Associate at the China Centre, at Oxford University, and at the School of Oriental and African Studies, London. The conversation will focus on China relations with the United States in the economic and political dimensions. We will discuss the American perception of the Chinese threat, the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), Chinese ambitions and the global response they elicit, the role and influence of Europe on the rising tensions between the two world economic powers, and the barriers to Chinese growth, such as demography and the middle-income trap. About „ChinaTalk” series ChinaTalk is a series of interviews with leading global experts on China and East Asia, produced jointly by the Polish Chinese Business Council (PCBC) and SWPS University. Interviews are hosted by PCBC President, Mr. Zbigniew Niesiobędzki, and Professor Marcin Jacoby, Head of the Department of Asian Studies at SWPS University. ChinaTalk brings you the latest knowledge on the economy, social issues, management, and politics of China and East Asia. Our guest interpret the current developments and trends in the Chinese economy, and predict global, regional and bilateral outcomes of political decisions. Chinese relations with the European Union, and Poland in particular, constitute an important context of these discussions. The expert insights provide valuable input for business practitioners, analysts, as well as researchers and students interested in macroeconomics and global trade. George Magnus George Magnus independent economist and commentator, Research Associate at the China Centre, Oxford University, and at the School of Oriental and African Studies, London. Over the years, he has held numerous positions, including Senior Economic Adviser at UBS Investment Bank, Chief Economist at SG Warburg (1987-1995), senior positions at Laurie Milbank/Chase Securities, Bank of America in London and San Francisco. George writes for the Financial Times, Times, Daily Telegraph, Bloomberg, South China Morning Post, Prospect Magazine, theArticle.com, and CapX, and is a contributor to many UK and international TV and radio programs. His books include “The Age of Aging” (2008), “Uprising: will emerging markets shape or shake the world economy?” (2011), and “Red Flags: why Xi’s China is in Jeopardy” (2018, Yale UP). More information at www.georgemagnus.com. Prof. Marcin Jacoby Sinologist, translator, expert on socio-political processes in East Asia, particularly China and Republic of Korea. He is also Head of the Department of Asian Studies at SWPS University, where he teaches literature, art, and cultural diplomacy in China and East Asian. Zbigniew Niesiobędzki, Ph.D. Economist with a career associated with investment funds. Over the years, he worked for Deloitte, and served as board member and member of supervisory boards of many companies in the telecommunications, construction, and furniture sectors. Currently, he is President of the Polish Chinese Business Council.

There are very few ways to get out of the debt hole we have dug, economist and author George Magnus tells Merryn, and inflation is one of the most likely. Not tomorrow, perhaps – not even by the end of the year. But it is coming.

Why does China seem to be upsetting countries around the world? Beijing's recent clampdown on Hong Kong with a new security law has led many countries to condemn the Chinese leadership. It's also put more pressure on the trade war with the US. So what's in it for Beijing to apparently spur international hostility over Hong Kong and a number of other regional border conflicts? George Magnus, an economist and an associate at the China Centre at Oxford University, believes the domestic unemployment issue is a big determining factor in Beijing's thinking. Yuen Yuen Ang, a political scientist and an expert on China and emerging economies at the University of Michigan, says it's all a symptom of President Xi's and Donald Trump's insecurities at home. And Ian Bremmer the President of the risk consultancy the Eurasia Group, says despite the Chinese always having been thought of long term, strategic thinkers they are now not even thinking six months ahead. (Picture: Cargo containers with US and China flags hoisted by crane hooks clash with each other; Credit: cybrain/Getty Images)

+Steve Sadove, Former Saks CEO & Mastercard Senior Adviser, says retail is in a reset period and a lot of stores will go under. Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, says the U.S. government has done a remarkable job in front-loading policy easing on both the fiscal and monetary sides. George Magnus, University of Oxford Research Associate, says the production side of China's economy is recovering well, but the demand side has not been. Stephen Gallo, BMO European Head of FX Strategy, says the medium-term growth outlook will be heavily shaped by the success or failure of government intervention. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

+Steve Sadove, Former Saks CEO & Mastercard Senior Adviser, says retail is in a reset period and a lot of stores will go under. Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, says the U.S. government has done a remarkable job in front-loading policy easing on both the fiscal and monetary sides. George Magnus, University of Oxford Research Associate, says the production side of China's economy is recovering well, but the demand side has not been. Stephen Gallo, BMO European Head of FX Strategy, says the medium-term growth outlook will be heavily shaped by the success or failure of government intervention.

Ebrahim Rahbari, Citi Global Head of FX Analysis, doesn't expect the economy to come out of recession until 2022. George Magnus, University of Oxford Research Associate at the China Centre, says the frosty relationship between the United States and China is chipping away their economic interdependence. Julia Coronado, Macroeconomic Policy President and Founder, says the current U.S. economic shutdown will be longer than anticipated. Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Professor & Former Fed Governor, says it would take extreme circumstances such as significant deflation for the Fed to consider negative rates. Jason Farley, Johns Hopkins University Professor of Nursing, discusses what we know about the likelihood of becoming reinfected with Covid-19. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Ebrahim Rahbari, Citi Global Head of FX Analysis, doesn't expect the economy to come out of recession until 2022. George Magnus, University of Oxford Research Associate at the China Centre, says the frosty relationship between the United States and China is chipping away their economic interdependence. Julia Coronado, Macroeconomic Policy President and Founder, says the current U.S. economic shutdown will be longer than anticipated. Randy Kroszner, University of Chicago Professor & Former Fed Governor, says it would take extreme circumstances such as significant deflation for the Fed to consider negative rates. Jason Farley, Johns Hopkins University Professor of Nursing, discusses what we know about the likelihood of becoming reinfected with Covid-19.

Nick also speaks to National Medical Director of NHS England, Professor Stephen Powis and George Magnus who is an Economist and Author – who predicted that the US sub-prime mortgage crisis would trigger a global recession.

In this episode, Chinese markets expert George Magnus explores the US-China situation; Is China in jeopardy? Will the Yuan weaken further? And how might trade wars hit global markets? Join us on this episode of Trading Global Markets Decoded to find out.  

The impact of nuclear weapons is the major theme this week. Darren begins by asking Allan for his practitioner’s perspective on the question whether nukes are a stabilising force in international affairs. The discussion then moves to North Korea: what were Allan’s expectations in the leadup to the recent summit in Hanoi between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un, and where does the world stand now? Are we in a better position on this issue than we were when Trump took office? Does it matter that Kim was granted international legitimacy through his participation at the Singapore and Hanoi summits? The latest on the India-Pakistan tensions follows, with a particular focus on the logic of “off-ramps” in crisis situations like these, and the role of “fake news” in creating them. Darren cannot decide whether fictional narratives are a good or a bad thing in these precarious situations, while Allan offers insight into the meaningful role Australia can play in tense situations involving Pakistan. Finally, a free trade agreement between Australia and Indonesia has finally been signed and awaits ratification. What took everyone so long? As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj Our thanks go to AIIA intern Charlie Henshall for his help both with research and audio editing, and Rory Stenning for composing our theme music. Relevant links Kenneth Waltz, “Why Iran Should Get the Bomb” in Foreign Affairs: https://www.acsu.buffalo.edu/~fczagare/PSC%20504/Waltz.pdf Christine Fair, “India’s and Pakistan’s Lies Thwarted a War—For Now” in the Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/03/india-pakistan-kargil-kashmir/584392/ “Pakistani army chief reaches out to Australia, UK” in the Sydney Morning Herald: www.smh.com.au/world/pakistani-army-chief-reaches-out-to-australia-uk-20190301-p511bx.html?btis   DiploPod interview with Evan Feigenbaum: https://player.fm/series/diplopod/where-is-the-us-china-relationship-going Red flags: Why Xi’s China is in jeopardy by George Magnus: https://georgemagnus.com/tag/red-flags/

On this episode, Oxford University's China Centre research associate George Magnus discusses his latest book “Red Flags: Why Xi's China is in Jeopardy.” The post https://www.aei.org/multimedia/ep-128-red-flags-in-xis-china-political-economy-with-james-pethokoukis/ (Red flags in Xi's China) appeared first on https://www.aei.org (American Enterprise Institute - AEI).

China's economy has grown exponentially over the last four decades, but George Magnus, former chief economist at UBS, sees four traps that could derail its continued rise: rising debt, the struggle to keep its currency stable, aging demographics, and the challenges of changing from a low-income economy to a complex middle-income one. Will Xi Jinping be open to reform? What could be the effects of lingering U.S.-China trade tensions?

China's economy has grown exponentially over the last four decades, but George Magnus, former chief economist at UBS, sees four traps that could derail its continued ascent: rising debt, the struggle to keep its currency stable, aging demographics, and the challenges of changing from a low-income economy to a complex middle-income one. Will Xi Jinping be open to reform? What could be the effects of lingering U.S.-China trade tensions?

China's economy has grown exponentially over the last four decades, but George Magnus, former chief economist at UBS, sees four traps that could derail its continued ascent: rising debt, the struggle to keep its currency stable, aging demographics, and the challenges of changing from a low-income economy to a complex middle-income one. Will Xi Jinping be open to reform? What could be the effects of lingering U.S.-China trade tensions?

Amanda asks George what he believes people need to understand about China now?

Amanda chats to George about the Chinese economy…and how it’s different today?

Amanda askes George about China’s laws and values…and wonders if we can have an on-going relationship with a country that doesn’t reflect our western views.

Amanda asks George about the Chinese president Xi Jinping, and what we should understand about him

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Over the last 40 years, China has changed beyond recognition, becoming a world power following economic reforms made by Deng Xiaoping and others.  President Xi Jinping, perhaps the most powerful leader in China since Mao Tse Tung, has inherited this more prosperous, and complex, economy. Yet, George Magnus, of the China Centre at Oxford University, … Continue reading EP 204 RED FLAGS FOR CHINA

Charles Peabody, President of Portales Partners LLC, on bank earnings and outlook. Danny Blanchflower, Professor of Economics at Dartmouth and former BOE policy maker, on why Theresa May is a dead woman walking. George Magnus, associate at the China Centre at Oxford University and former chief economist of UBS, on China's economic outlook and how this plays into trade negotiations.  Drew Armstrong, U.S. Healthcare team leader for Bloomberg, on Walmart leaving CVS's pharmacy network.

George Magnus sits down with Cameron Munter to discuss his latest book, "Red Flags: Why Xi's China Is in Jeopardy," which explores the fate of China’s economic future.

George Magnus, associate at the China Centre at Oxford University and former chief economist of UBS, on the slowdown in China’s economy, and China-U.S. trade relations. Noah Feldman, Harvard Law Professor and Bloomberg Opinion columnist, discusses his column: "Trump’s Tweeting His Post-Presidency Defense Now." Kathleen Gaffney, Co-Director of Diversified Fixed Income at Eaton Vance, on bond markets and her outlook for 2019. Sheryl Connelly, Ford's futurist, discusses 2019 trends in technology and artificial technology. 

China is heading for super-power status—but will it get there? George Magnus, one of Britain's leading China experts, sets out the deep social, economic and political challenges that Beijing now faces. If it overcomes them, the prize could be huge. How likely is that? And what if it fails? With Tom Clark, Sameer Rahim, Alex Dean and Timothy Garton Ash.Produced by Jay Elwes See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

In light of the and that country's retaliation, Claudia Cragg (@KGNUClaudia) speaks for "' with  George Magnus (). He is the author of , in which he explores four key issues that he believes China must confront and overcome in order to thrive - debt, middle income, the Renminbi and an aging population. At the end of this month, Xi and Trump with meet in Buenos Aires for the What is Xi Jinping doing to combat these issues and what more can be done? In addition, how might China’s evolving relationship with the US impact future growth? And is the Belt and Road initiative proving successful in bolstering China’s influence in Eurasia.

Mail bombs are in the headlines, but it's our trade relationship with China that may determine your economic fate. Rick talks with George Magnus, Associate with the China Centre at Oxford University. His book is Red Flags: Why Xi's China is in Jeopardy. You can call in to the show any time at (833) 711-RICK. That's (833) 711-7425.

China has a plan for how it wants to transform into a modern economy. But the future of China’s economy is complicated both by internal factors like debt-fueled growth, as well as external challenges like a potentially drawn out trade war with the U.S. On this week’s Odd Lots, George Magnus, author of “Red Flags: Why Xi’s China is in Jeopardy,” explores these pressures and more. 

George Magnus, associate at the China Centre at Oxford University and former chief economist of UBS, on his new book, "Red Flags: Why Xi’s China is in Jeopardy."Matt Chiodi, Vice President and Chief Information Security Officer at RedLock, on a major U.S. telecom company discovering more manipulated hardware from China’s Super Micro Computer Inc.  Molly Smith, corporate finance reporter for Bloomberg, on Tesla's bonds showing no signs of default anytime soon. Jim Paulsen, Chief Investment Strategist at Leuthold, discusses why concerns that the U.S. economy will overheat and inflation will accelerate is becoming “the prevailing attitude of Wall Street." Hosted by Pimm Fox and Lisa Abramowicz.

On What’d You Miss This Week, Joe Weisenthal, Scarlet Fu and Julia Chatterley had their eyes glued on Capitol Hill as Mark Zuckerberg came face to face with U.S. lawmakers. They broke down the Facebook CEO’s two days of testimony with David Kirkpatrick, author of "The Facebook Effect" and asked where’s all our data going? More importantly, do users even care? George Magnus, China Centre associate at the University of Oxford, also joined to discuss the concern that the tough trade talk between the U.S. and China could escalate to weaponized finance between the world’s two largest economies. But unlike President Trump, he’s not quite convinced China would intentionally devalue the Yuan. Then Alberto Ramos, Goldman Sachs Head of LatAm Economics, came on to talk through Brazil’s economic reality and their complex election on the horizon.

With Liam Halligan, George Magnus, Matthew Parris, James Forsyth, Polly Morgan and Mary Wakefield. Presented by Lara Prendergast.

As we prepare to leave the EU, Jonathan Freedland compares overseas trade in today's Elizabethan age with that of the sixteenth century. In 1570 Elizabeth I was the subject of a Papal Bull of Excommunication, Theresa May must write a letter to Europe to trigger Article 50. Both documents will have a profound impact on trade. Elizabeth's response to her European troubles was to forge new trade links with the East, sending merchants to Turkey, Persia and North Africa. Today's trade ministers hope to emulate the achievements of their Tudor counterparts, but how important is trade with Europe to our prosperity and how easy will it be to do new trade deals on more distant shores ? Taking the Long View of trade, Jonathan is joined by Professor Jerry Brotton of Queen Mary University of London, author of 'This Orient Isle:Elizabethan England and the Islamic World'. Discussing today's export markets are the economists George Magnus, Liam Halligan and Dr Monique Ebell and our actor is Anita Dobson.

George Magnus, a Bloomberg View columnist and an associate at Oxford University's China Centre, says China isn't ready to make the concessions the U.S. wants on trade policy. June Grasso, co-host of "Bloomberg Law," discusses the next steps for the Trump administration after an appeals court refused to reinstate the travel ban. Art Hogan, the chief market strategist at Wunderlich Capital Markets, speaks with Pimm Fox and Lisa Abramowicz about the markets and his investment strategy. Finally, Brian Rye, the senior healthcare policy analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses how Tom Price's confirmation as Secretary of Health and Human Services will affect Obamacare and its repeal.

“Debate globalisation?” Tony Blair said a dozen years ago, “You might as well debate whether autumn should follow summer." Well, we're debating it now all right, and economist George Magnus fears that it's set to spin into reverse—very possibly sinking us into a global trade war. Some unhappy dwellers on Planet Trump fear that real war could soon be on the agenda as well. Spies are better placed than most of us to assess the risks, and a host of them have been coming out of the shadows to speak to Prospect's Executive Editor, Jay Elwes about how they're getting on with the new White House regime. The way that Brexit Britain navigates these frightening waters will depend very much on the woman at the wheel—Theresa May. Anne Perkins of the Guardian has been digging into her early life to get a sense of what makes our prime minister tick. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

China's 2015 growth data, released this week, provides an opportunity for Beijing to argue that the underlying economy remains sound despite recent stock market chaos. Michael MacKenzie asks George Magnus, an associate at Oxford university’s China Centre and senior economic adviser to UBS, how reliable the data are and what China's leaders need to do to reassure investors and the markets. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

This is the second part of the 'Best of 2015' of the Economic Rockstar podcast. This episode provides you with a glimpse of what type of guests and conversations I've had on the show this past year.   Previous episodes that feature in this Best of 2015 are:  022 Josh Angrist on Taking the Con Out of Econometrics. 060 Manu Saadia on Trekonomics – The Economics of Star Trek: Scarcity, Productivity and Public Goods 017 Marina Adshade on Understanding Economics the Sexy and 'Hard' Way. 049 Jon Haywood with Jez Groom on How a Cleverly Designed Nudge Can Change People’s Behavior – Including How We Pee. 019 Mark Thornton on the Decriminalization of Marijuana and the Skyscraper Curse. 027 Craig Medico on How Economics Saved My Career, How I’m Embracing Technology in the Classroom and Why I’m off to Wrestling School. 020 George Magnus on The Age of Ageing, China and the EU. 028 Alice Louise Kassens on Nudging Students to Study Economics and Why Mainstream Media Should Publish Research on Mental Health. 030 Kim Holder on Rockonomix and Teaching Economics Through the Lens of Sport, Music and Movies. 045 Jon Manning on the Art of Pricing and How Economic Theory Has Got Pricing All Wrong. Check out the shownotes at www.economicrockstar.com/sixtysix

George Magnus is an independent economist, consultant and commentator. He has a distinguished career that started with some teaching assignments but was spent mostly in the financial services industry. Before going solo in 2012, George was the Senior Economic Adviser at UBS Investment Bank having previously been the Chief Economist for 10 years. In almost 30 years of working experience in the City, he has held senior positions at SG Warburg, Chase Manhattan Bank and Bank of America. He is a well-known and highly regarded economist in the financial community and has won many accolades in professional surveys as one of the top global economists. George is well known for his commentaries and interviews in newspapers, journals, TV and radio, most notably for the Financial Times, CNBC and Bloomberg. George, gained widespread acclaim for declaring in early 2007 that we would face a Minsky Moment - or systemic banking crisis - and a decade of slow growth, has extensive experience of writing on, explaining and speaking about the global economy.   His first book, The Age of Ageing: How Demographics Are Changing The Global Economy And Our World was published in 2008. His latest book, Uprising: Will Emerging Markets Shape or Shake the Global Economy was published at the end of 2010, and assesses, in particular, whether China is set to dominate the world system. Find Out:  about bubbles and why we never learn from them. how demographics are changing the world economy through declining fertility and rising life expectancy. about the need for a policy agenda to cope with an ageing society. why age-related commitments and promises such as pensions and health care schemes are unaffordable. why there is a pension crisis to come and how it mimics a Ponzi-scheme. about the fastest ageing country - China - and what problems will exist in the future. if economies can experience positive growth rates if population declines by relying on robotics.     how the second machine age may bring problems to those whose jobs have been automated. if there will be a strong Luddite presence in the future given the pace of technological change. about the failure of the BRIC emerging countries to live up to their expectations. if China is all hype. what the real problem is in Europe in terms of its monetary union. why the EU should have started with a fiscal and political union first and then build a monetary union on top.   about George Magnus’ band ‘Prisom’ and his love of Led Zeppelin and Pink Floyd. Visit www.economicrockstar.com/georgemagnus to view all the links mentioned in this episode. You Are An Economic Rockstar!      

UBS senior economic adviser and former chief economist George Magnus discusses unconventional policy responses to the current crises afflicting the world's major economies in the wake of thirty years of debt-fueled growth.

Andrew Marr talks to Niall Ferguson about the history of civilisation, and how the West came to triumph over what appeared to be superior empires in the East, and whether that ascendancy is in permanent decline. While the economist George Magnus questions whether emerging markets, like China, really are about to dominate the world. The Queen will celebrate her Diamond Jubilee next year, and the commentator Peter Whittle presents a robust defence of the monarchy as one of Britain's leading institutions. And as revolution and change sweep across the Middle East, Professor Madawi Al-Rasheed looks at the impact on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.Producer: Katy Hickman.

An audio podcast from UBS about Uprising: will emerging markets shape or shake the world economy? - a new book by George Magnus, here in conversation with Paul Donovan