Podcasts about statistical modeling

In this week's episode, the last of Season 6,  Patrick and Greg pull back the curtain and reveal how the Quantitude sausage is actually made. Their motivation is to share their own joys and challenges in making a podcast in the hope that others might consider doing this themselves, whether it be for simple self-satisfaction or for using it as a free speech platform in a time when other avenues of communication are feeling increasingly compromised. Along the way they also discuss baring your soul, being 20 minutes away, losing money, Guglielmo Marconi, palak paneer, Taylor Swift, Machiavelli's bad rap, Quincy Jones, hostage negotiations, two blind squirrels, our Innies, for love of the game, Jiffy (in moderation), Blood Meridian, and Edmund Burke.Stay in contact with Quantitude! Web page: quantitudepod.org TwitterX: @quantitudepod YouTube: @quantitudepod Merch: redbubble.com

In this week's episode Greg and Patrick explore the extremely clever yet inexplicably underused method of dominance analysis which offers a set of techniques for determining the relative importance of predictors in a regression model. Along the way they also discuss giving compliments, looking tired, Indy vs. F1, chicken paprikas, Gustav Holst, Fozzie Bear, not paying attention while recording, Lewis Hamilton pin-ups, Lando Calrissian, equation forts, being appallingly cool, making no sense at all, and magnums of champagne. Stay in contact with Quantitude! Web page: quantitudepod.org TwitterX: @quantitudepod YouTube: @quantitudepod Merch: redbubble.com

In this week's episode Patrick and Greg have some serious fun with song lyrics they misunderstood at some point in their personal lives. They then use this as a thinly veiled excuse to explore some very basic statistical things that they have also misunderstood at some point in their professional lives. Along the way they discuss over-engineered front ends, mumbling, Scaramouche, mondegreens, Tony Danza, Bingo Jed, word salad, containers, sitting next to Kurt Cobain, kicking cats, tiddles, ears ringing, the Dunder Chief, wrinkles in the space time continuum, naked or not, missing data bouncer, colite gas, and dying on the dance floor. Stay in contact with Quantitude! Web page: quantitudepod.org TwitterX: @quantitudepod YouTube: @quantitudepod Merch: redbubble.com

In today's episode Patrick and Greg talk about outcomes that are count variables: when you need to worry about them and what you can do about them within your analytical models. Along the way they also mention: Bela Lugosi, Vlad the Impaler, Patrick the Poker, Count Chocula, Count von Count, drunken bar brawls, secret distributions, K!, bio breaks, second favorite child, Animal Farm, Cliff's notes, A's in band, and more equal zeros. Stay in contact with Quantitude! Web page: quantitudepod.org TwitterX: @quantitudepod YouTube: @quantitudepod Merch: redbubble.com

In this week's episode Greg and Patrick explore both the challenges and the opportunities of age-period-cohort analysis when trying to understand the complexities of human behavior over time. Along the way they also discuss bachelor night, Dave Brubeck, pay phones, street lights, global nuclear war, lazy thinking, I'm not a crook, biking to grandmas, HMS Pinafore, the Beatles, aggressive mice, trash snakes, and getting high at A-Basin.Stay in contact with Quantitude! Web page: quantitudepod.org TwitterX: @quantitudepod YouTube: @quantitudepod Merch: redbubble.com

In this week's episode Greg and Patrick shine a flashlight on correspondence analysis and find that this is an extraordinarily cool yet often neglected method similar to factor analysis but applied to nominal contingency tables. Along the way they also discuss online personality tests, marital therapy, modern antibiotics, the Newlywed Game, grand slams, the advantages of being flexible, disrespecting nominal variables, formally apologizing to linguists, Winnie the Pooh, VH1's Pop-Up Video, the witches of Macbeth, Wait Wait Don't Tell Me, and the downsides of Novocaine. Stay in contact with Quantitude! Web page: quantitudepod.org TwitterX: @quantitudepod YouTube: @quantitudepod Merch: redbubble.com

Unlock the secrets to AI's modeling paradigms. We emphasize the importance of modeling practices, how they interact, and how they should be considered in relation to each other before you act. Using the right tool for the right job is key. We hope you enjoy these examples of where the greatest AI and machine learning techniques exist in your routine today.More AI agent disruptors (0:56)Proxy from London start-up Convergence AIAnother hit to OpenAI, this product is available for free, unlike OpenAI's Operator. AI Paris Summit - What's next for regulation? (4:40)[Vice President] Vance tells Europeans that heavy regulation can kill AIUS federal administration withdrawing from the previous trend of sweeping big tech regulation on modeling systems.The EU is pushing to reduce bureaucracy but not regulatory pressureModeling paradigms explained (10:33)As companies look for an edge in high-stakes computations, we've seen best-in-class rediscovering expert system-based techniques that, with modern computing power, are breathing new light into them. Paradigm 1: Agents (11:23)Paradigm 2: Generative (14:26)Paradigm 3: Mathematical optimization (regression) (18:33)Paradigm 4: Predictive (classification) (23:19)Paradigm 5: Control theory (24:37)The right modeling paradigm for the job? (28:05)What did you think? Let us know.Do you have a question or a discussion topic for the AI Fundamentalists? Connect with them to comment on your favorite topics: LinkedIn - Episode summaries, shares of cited articles, and more. YouTube - Was it something that we said? Good. Share your favorite quotes. Visit our page - see past episodes and submit your feedback! It continues to inspire future episodes.

In this week's episode Greg and Patrick talk about loglinear models as a clever method to deconstruct the potential dependencies among two or more categorical variables. Along the way, they also discuss Children of the Corn, Mr. Magoo glasses, tighty whities, Fogo de Chão, blinded by hand soap, logarithms as drug mules, Euler Euler Euler, conspiracy boards and red yarn, M&M colors, depth perception problems, and apologies to Mrs. JohnsonStay in contact with Quantitude! Web page: quantitudepod.org TwitterX: @quantitudepod YouTube: @quantitudepod Merch: redbubble.com

In this week's episode Greg and Patrick invoke the very personal interpretation of modern art as a framework for thinking about the exceedingly cool topic of rotation in exploratory factor analysis. Along the way they also discuss Venice Beach, haystacks, drug fronts, being insufferable, ignoramuses, .22's and stop signs, weak pivots, honking factors, pooping out matrices, the Gulf of America, twitchy eyeballs, big fat zeros, obliquity, and Extortomax.  Stay in contact with Quantitude! Web page: quantitudepod.org TwitterX: @quantitudepod YouTube: @quantitudepod Merch: redbubble.com

In this week's episode Greg and Patrick talk about group coding approaches, like dummy variables and effect code variables, for helping to analyze group differences within the larger general linear model. Along they way they also discuss hacking up a lung, made for audio faces, walking pneumonia, putting Vicks VapoRub on your feet, cards in your spokes, confusing rental cars, crash test dummies, what is your quest, 25-cent Nyquil night, Bonferroni glasses, the Romans, and Nyquil haze. Stay in contact with Quantitude! Web page: quantitudepod.org TwitterX: @quantitudepod YouTube: @quantitudepod Merch: redbubble.com

In this week's episode Patrick and Greg explore the fascinating world of suppressor variables which have the nearly magical, yet fully understandable, distinction of being unrelated to the dependent variable yet serving to enhance the predictive utility of other variables in the model. Along the way they also discuss  getting the giggles, giving away our secrets, Sigmund Freud, repressed variance, Greg's defense mechanisms, Keyser Soze, the Cookie Monster, squirrel proof bird feeders, World War II, street magicians, Paul's corpse, and before zero was invented.  Stay in contact with Quantitude! Web page: quantitudepod.org TwitterX: @quantitudepod YouTube: @quantitudepod Merch: redbubble.com

In today's episode, Greg and Patrick talk about instrumental variables: what they are, how they help to make causal claims, and the many assumptions and challenges associated with them. Along the way they also mention: Festival of Side Dishes, pilot turkeys, gutsy bagpipes, charter schools, drama kids, RCT wieners, Space Force, licking a rainbow, Duranimals, draft lotteries, shoelace color, buttress, mother-in-lawing, and kazoo duets. Stay in contact with Quantitude! Web page: quantitudepod.org TwitterX: @quantitudepod YouTube: @quantitudepod Merch: redbubble.com

Barry Conchie is Founder & President of Conchie Associates, which has a database of over 58,000 C-suite executives. Previously, Barry headed the Gallup organization's Global Leadership Research and Development business. Born and educated in the UK with PhDs in Cognitive Neuroscience and Statistical Modeling at Oxford, his work for Gallup began in London where he developed their leadership consulting business across Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and eventually the Americas as well. Barry has 40 years of experience in the areas of psychometric assessment and testing, executive coaching, and team optimization. He has been ranked as one of the top 50 leadership thinkers in the world by Leadership Insights magazine. And he is also the New York Times and Wall Street Journal best-selling co-author of Strengths-Based Leadership. In this episode we discuss the following: The reality is that most people are not going to be outstanding leaders. So, we should strive to be brilliant in the roles that best fit our capabilities, and then surround ourselves with people who have complementary skills who are brilliant in their roles.   Connect on Social Media: X: https://twitter.com/nate_meikle LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/natemeikle/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/nate_meikle/ Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@nate.meikle

This week Patrick and Greg talk about one of Patrick's favorite papers, which is a masterpiece not only in terms of its quantitative contribution in understanding the differential role of factor scores, but also as a model of clear and concise technical communication. Along the way they also mention Sandals and Motel 6, hotel hangers and glasses, hitchhikers under the bed, icebreakers with Roger, David Mamet films, Patrick's conversations with himself, Rondo, title colons, carving elephants, cursing Patrick in the dark, as the reader may demonstrate, tea leaves, Holzinger & Swineford, and bringing down the average IQ.Stay in contact with Quantitude! Web page: quantitudepod.org TwitterX: @quantitudepod YouTube: @quantitudepod Merch: redbubble.com

In this week's episode, Patrick and Greg discuss the benefits and limitations of generalized estimating equations as an approach to dealing with data that violate the assumption of independence. Along the way they also mention: goat rodeos, haunted houses, jump scares, liberos, Haikyu!!, Whoa Ace!, dadenfreude, Otto, cutting the baguette, this just in, American Idiot, bing bong bing bong, my dad drinks Pepsi, and fine print.Stay in contact with Quantitude! Web page: quantitudepod.org TwitterX: @quantitudepod YouTube: @quantitudepod Merch: redbubble.com

In this week's episode, our 150th and the last of season 5, Greg and Patrick hear from five people at different stages of their academic journey, who share some of their concerns about a career in academia. Along the way we also mention: deathscrolling, Patrick's fuzzy blanket, slow motion ballerina, Twix, academia infomercial, Twitter admins, micromanaging, pilot training, young Turks at the gate, stupid shit like this, chalk holders, administrative tennis, Nietzsche, Eeyore, Kaitlin Clark assists, blizzard of information, kick the can, when the street lights come on, and water goggles.Stay in contact with Quantitude! Twitter: @quantitudepod Web page: quantitudepod.org Merch: redbubble.com

A Note from James:I am thrilled to celebrate the 10th anniversary of my podcast. Occasionally, I'll feature some timeless episodes as if they're brand new, sharing those that have greatly impacted me. One such figure is Nassim Taleb, whom I consider one of the smartest people on the planet.I've learned so much from Nassim, and I'm not sure he realizes or cares just how influential he's been on me. I was extremely grateful when he agreed to appear on my podcast. There's an interesting backstory to his appearance: he joined my show a few years ago, and we are airing that episode now, though he might not be aware of the whole story.Back in 2002, I was desperate—I was broke, struggling, losing my house, and my family was falling apart. I wrote to 20 influential individuals, including well-known investors and writers like Warren Buffett and Carl Icahn, expressing my desire to meet them. Only three responded.Jim Cramer was one of them. I had sent him ten ideas for articles he could write for TheStreet.com. To my surprise, he responded positively and encouraged me to write the articles myself, which kickstarted my career as a writer. From financial columns, I expanded into other topics.Victor Niederhoffer also replied because I sent him software programs tailored to his trading style, offering them for his and his traders' use and my assistance if needed, with no pressure to respond.Nassim Taleb was another who responded. I had reached out to him because I admired his book "Fooled by Randomness" and wished to meet him. Although he was willing to meet, I never followed up. However, many years later, he came on my podcast, bringing everything full circle, for which I am immensely grateful.Now, I am honored to reintroduce one of the smartest men in the universe, Nassim Taleb. Episode Description:In this episode, we explore Nassim Taleb's influential ideas, specifically his thoughts on antifragility, the unpredictability of life, and the beneficial role of trial and error in diverse areas such as technology, health, and business. As we mark ten years of learning, the host shares transformative conversations with Taleb, revealing how chaos and uncertainty can fortify systems, people, and industries. We examine Taleb's key principles: reducing interference, valuing variability, and the necessity of personal investment in outcomes. We also look at concrete examples. Further, we discuss how embracing errors and innovation can lead to breakthroughs in sectors like drug development and business ventures, and address the negative impacts of excessive rescue measures and regulatory constraints. Through a blend of personal anecdotes and theoretical exploration, this episode encapsulates the essence of antifragility as a pathway to resilience and fulfillment. Episode Summary:00:00 Celebrating a Decade of Podcasting: A Special Revisit00:35 The Power of Cold Emails: Life-Changing Connections02:04 Nassim Taleb: A Mind That Shaped My Worldview02:51 Exploring the Impact of Technology Through the Lens of Anti-Fragility04:18 The Evolution of Communication: From TV to Social Media04:47 The Paradox of Technological Progress: A Historical Perspective05:43 Disruptive Innovations and the Cycle of Technology08:41 Personal Anecdotes and the Philosophy of Email Communication09:24 The Intricacies of Responding to Emails and Setting Boundaries10:56 Journalism, Social Media, and the Quest for Authenticity15:27 Understanding Fragility vs. Anti-Fragility: A Deep Dive26:07 The Role of Variability and Stressors in Evolution and Health31:49 Applying Anti-Fragility to Diet, Exercise, and Lifestyle49:43 The Importance of Political Variability and the Unpredictability of Life51:40 Exploring the Anti-Fragile Lifestyle52:00 The Power of Walking and Creative Thinking54:22 Embracing Natural Elements for Health55:06 Rethinking Medicine and Personal Health Strategies57:30 Navigating Social Relationships and Disruption01:00:31 The Essence of Anti-Fragility in Life and Work01:09:34 Understanding the Financial System and Its Fragilities01:12:33 The Role of Entrepreneurship and Risk in Society01:29:51 Reflecting on Writing, Publishing, and Intellectual Pursuits01:41:37 Closing Thoughts and Future Directions ------------What do YOU think of the show? Head to JamesAltucherShow.com/listeners and fill out a short survey that will help us better tailor the podcast to our audience!Are you interested in getting direct answers from James about your question on a podcast? Go to JamesAltucherShow.com/AskAltucher and send in your questions to be answered on the air!------------Visit Notepd.com to read our idea lists & sign up to create your own!My new book, Skip the Line, is out! Make sure you get a copy wherever books are sold!Join the You Should Run for President 2.0 Facebook Group, where we discuss why you should run for President.I write about all my podcasts! Check out the full post and learn what I learned at jamesaltuchershow.com------------Thank you so much for listening! If you like this episode, please rate, review, and subscribe to “The James Altucher Show” wherever you get your podcasts: Apple PodcastsiHeart RadioSpotifyFollow me on social media:YouTubeTwitterFacebookLinkedIn

The data sources that the industry has used to measure the performance of media are disintegrating around us. Basically, attribution is dead. And the slowness, expense, and limitations of media mix modeling is not up to this moment of needing to drive both top line and bottom line growth with media investments. What will replace it? Meghan Corroon, Founder and CEO Clerdata, along with her mighty team of statistical modeling and data science brains, have a very compelling new SaaS-based, real-time answer to that most difficult question,, and she joined the podcast to share it.

▶️ Dans cette deuxième partie, on continue à découvrir la vision du métier d'enseignante-chercheuse que Maud partage avec nous. Elle insiste sur la richesse des tâches associées. Pour elle, il y a autant de façon d'incarner et de vivre cette profession que de personnes la pratiquant. Elle nous en dit plus également sur son statut d'actuaire. Les actuaires sont des spécialistes de la gestion du risque. Leur travail consiste à réaliser des études économiques, financières, statistiques pour évaluer des risques et répondre en fonction des résultats obtenus à des questions d'assurance, de prévoyance, etc. Dans sa carte blanche, Maud nous parle de la pluridisciplinarité, un sujet qui lui tient vraiment à coeur. Elle commence par préciser ce qu'elle entend par là. Elle fait la distinction entre des papiers théoriques qui, à la fin, testent des méthodes sur de vraies données et des articles dans lesquels il y a eu un vrai dialogue avec des acteurs d'une autre discipline pour tenter d'apporter une réponse à des problèmes issus du terrain. Les mathématiques arrivent dans ces cas en renforts pour tenter d'apporter une potentielle réponse à un problème déjà existant. Elle illustre cela à l'aide de nombreux exemples issus de sa propre expérience. En effet, Maud a travaillé sur des problèmes de géologie, géographie, risque cyber, épidémies, risques naturels, finances … Dans ces travaux, à chaque fois, elle a dû dialoguer avec des personnes issues de ces différentes disciplines. Elle nous raconte ce que cela implique au quotidien, les forces et les difficultés qui peuvent parfois naître de ces collaborations, comme celles de trouver des journaux adaptés quand on se trouve pile à l'interface ou de réussir à valoriser son travail auprès des différentes communautés.  Voici les recommandations données dans cet épisode : Maud vous recommande le livre « An introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values » de Stuart Coles. Je vous recommande pour ma part la BD « Les Audaces de Sophie Germain » d'Elena Tartaglini.

In today's episode, Greg and Patrick dig into Confirmatory Composite Analysis, a very clever way to get formative factors and their causal indicators into the traditional structural equation modeling framework, along with any other latent factors and their effect indicators that might already be in the model. Along the way they also mention full-contact Wordle, being grounded, spelling bees, state capitals, definitions of leadership, a many ways, rabbit or duck, set of steak knives, canonical correlation vs. Homer Simpson, secret sauce, Quantitude Word of the Day, Who's a good boy?, the man behind the curtain, Penn and Tellering, a new symbol, Beavis, and car stereo wiring diagrams.Stay in contact with Quantitude! Twitter: @quantitudepod Web page: quantitudepod.org Merch: redbubble.com

In today's episode, Patrick and Greg talk about the challenge of having causal indicators of formative factors within an analytical framework that is historically dominated by effect indicators and latent factors — and the critical importance of getting your arrows right. Along the way they also mention: self help books, habits, Hagrid and the giants, When Arrows Attack, The Handbook of SEM, the evil eye factor, defining your terms, the meaning of IS, minority reports, putting your fist through the office wall, lawyering, being deposed, How does it know?, doubling down, and bad JFK impressions. Stay in contact with Quantitude! Twitter: @quantitudepod Web page: quantitudepod.org Merch: redbubble.com

In the last episode of season 4, Greg and Patrick discuss the very cool exploratory technique of cluster analysis — including concepts of multivariate distance, hierarchical and non-hierarchical methods, and how it differs from mixture models. Along the way they also mention: Scandinavian architects, raccoons on meth, vegetarian hotdogs, sh*t-ton of do-loops, free-range jam, statistical hairballs, Euclid's burial, the platypus problem, stars and galaxies, stealing from the hard sciences, ungulates & marsupials, and Amy-Marie.Stay in contact with Quantitude! Twitter: @quantitudepod Web page: quantitudepod.org Merch: redbubble.com

In this week's episode Patrick and Greg talk about the critical and often unmet assumptions underlying the use of measured variables at multiple time points, whether for simple analyses like tests of means or more complex analyses like modeling individual growth. Along the way they also mention: following your blocker, Pascal's wager, Wikipedia empathy, ham sandwich syllogisms, flying cattle cars, Kennedy babies, Costco bathroom scales, Spirit Airlines, expecting you to bring wine, crying about broccoli, the Audi A series, dead raccoon smell, Joe Walsh, Greg's abs, copy/paste measurement models, Orlando vs. Fort Lauderdale, moles on spring break, and disturbing artwork.Stay in contact with Quantitude! Twitter: @quantitudepod Web page: quantitudepod.org Merch: redbubble.com

In this week's episode Greg and Patrick are joined by Christen Priddie of Indiana University who will help them learn a bit about QuantCrit: its foundations, its purpose, and how it can enrich the quantitative methods process to which we might have become a little *too* accustomed.  Along the way they also mention unknown unknowns, explaining the ocean, young Pat, cackling, how Greg pays for college, crap with a number, too young for the Muppets, grumpy old men, crowbar in the brain, bad maps, Logical Landmines, fluffy language, and storytelling.Stay in contact with Quantitude! Twitter: @quantitudepod Web page: quantitudepod.org Merch: redbubble.com

In honor of April Fool's Day, this week's episode is about being fooled, specifically quantitative things that can fool you, accompanied by some classic songs about being fooled.  Along the way, Greg and Patrick also mention ukus, the spaghetti harvest, sucker!, meet the new boss, traditions of doing things wrong, naked garbage bag poker, old man rants, rich Facebook friends, The Scarlet R, ar-ar-ar-ar-ar, bugs versus features, sucking statistically significantly less, farewell tours, seabirds (with a white wine reduction), and Mother's Day. Stay in contact with Quantitude! Twitter: @quantitudepod Web page: quantitudepod.org Merch: redbubble.com

In this week's episode Patrick and Greg talk about exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM), a technique drawing upon the strengths of exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis methods and able to be embedded within structural equation models. Along the way they also mention crab vs. crabs, Most Dangerous Catch, Next Day Blinds, smash-and-grab, sharp pencils, opening the barn doors, stinking badges, all hat and no cattle, control issues, quieting the Irishmen, oxymorons, selling factor analysis on Ebay, living with mom or dad, going higgly-piggly, and treats for the mole. Stay in contact with Quantitude! Twitter: @quantitudepod Web page: quantitudepod.org Merch: redbubble.com

In this week's episode Greg and Patrick talk with Dr. Ellen Hamaker from Utrecht University about the exciting and growing area of dynamic structural equation models. They discuss its tremendous substantive and methodological promise as well its assumptions and potential limitations. Along the way they also mention talking in acronyms, QSEM, cowardly bathroom stall phone calls, statistical sock puppets, interrupting Patrick, outsourcing, John Wick, copy machines, I want a cookie, bad clinical psychologists, closeness and tension, million dollar question, aspirin effects, Greg's blue eyes, fathers matter!, and what keeps you up at night.Stay in contact with Quantitude! Twitter: @quantitudepod Web page: quantitudepod.org Merch: redbubble.com

In this week's episode, Greg and Patrick talk about what you can do when latent variables conspire to multiplicatively interact, focusing on the classic product indicator approach and the more recently developed method of  latent moderated structural relations. Along the way they also mention confession, being hardly sorry, conspiracy theories, Greg's area 51 poster, trashed record needles, backwards messages, the Scooby Doo Gang, Street Justice Velma, tasteful ascots, chocolate in my peanut butter, two-legged tables, spinning 90 degrees, drug mules, Pearson's crabs, Freemasons and the Illuminati, and chalking up a win.Stay in contact with Quantitude! Twitter: @quantitudepod Web page: quantitudepod.org Merch: redbubble.com

In this week's episode Patrick and Greg discuss variable transformations, both linear and non-linear, and explore the potential pros and cons of using these in applied research settings. Along the way they also mention prank phone calls, English drama, rapping Dr. Seuss, persnickety estimation, weekly banana intake, it don't make no never mind, Jeffrey Bezos, the square root of .5, leverage out the wazoo, Sexy Hulk and Rage Hulk, frowny-face plots, a barn full of methods, the actual analysis of data, the principles of witchcraft, statistical insults, and massaging your y. Stay in contact with Quantitude! Twitter: @quantitudepod Web page: quantitudepod.org Merch: redbubble.com

In this week's episode Patrick and Greg talk about an alternative to familywise Type I error control, the false discovery rate, and how it offers increased power in that middle ground between no error control and the severe control of Bonferroni.  Along the way they also mention: Leif Ericson, discovering Columbus, The Flintstones, brontosauri, dying grandmas, Coors Field homeruns, hitting Richard, more Calvinball, the power reaper, Thelma and Louise, making flights on time, intellectual judo, wet paper bags, and distribution of blame.Stay in contact with Quantitude! Twitter: @quantitudepod Web page: quantitudepod.org Merch: redbubble.com

In this week's episode Greg and Patrick discuss how we might flip the traditional null and alternative hypothesis testing procedures to move us from tests of literal equality to tests of practical equivalence. Along the way they also discuss tough love, horseshoes and hand-grenades, Patrick's Driving School, Cheyenne Mountain, So Long and Thanks For All the Fish, isn't that convenient, why people hate us, systolic blood pressure, *real* doctors, I Can't Drive 55, splash zones, Gallagher, Dilbert, and being precisely equal. Stay in contact with Quantitude! Twitter: @quantitudepod Web page: quantitudepod.org Merch: redbubble.com

In this week's episode Patrick and Greg explore all the ways they lie about things when they teach, not the least of which is that there are actually no individual growth trajectories estimated in an individual trajectory growth model. They discuss why this is, how individual trajectory estimates can be obtained, and how these might be used in practice. Along the way they also mention the green light button, developmental milestones, love for semicolons, Jack Nicholson, baskets of data, Oprah, it's all crap, transparencies and dittos, yelling at your steering wheel, libertarians vs. socialists, carts and donkeys, catching squirrels, enemy on the field, being stung, bit, and chased, and persnickety models. Stay in contact with Quantitude! Twitter: @quantitudepod Web page: quantitudepod.org Merch: redbubble.com

In this week's episode Greg and Patrick revisit a topic they addressed in their 2nd-ever episode: statistical power. Here they continue their discussion by attempting to clarify the power of what, and they explore ways of obtaining meaningful power estimates using the structural equation modeling framework. Along the way they also discuss tearing arms off, German dentists, booby prizes, Dr. Strangelove, making it look like an accident, shrug emojis, the whale petting machine, baseball and war, where's Waldo, whale holes, the big R-squared, throwing reviewers against the wall, DIY power, in fairness to me, eggplants, and screw you guys, I'm going home. Stay in contact with Quantitude! Twitter: @quantitudepod Web page: quantitudepod.org Merch: redbubble.com

In today's episode, Patrick and Greg talk about those critical distributions that often go un-discussed -- noncentral distributions -- including their relation to the more familiar central distributions, their role in power and sample size determination, and how they are used in assessing data-model fit. Along the way they also mention back porch reading, latent class of one, statistical concepts as personality characteristics,  double doink, Brilliant!, cocktail party banter, reaching into your d-bag, Minitab macros, sucking good practice out of your field, Patrick's most boring paper, before horses were invented, and throwing down your guitar.Stay in contact with Quantitude! Twitter: @quantitudepod Web page: quantitudepod.org Merch: redbubble.com

In today's episode, Greg and Patrick talk about model under-, just-, and over-identification, starting with the algebraic foundations and moving into implications for the practice of structural equation modeling. Along the way they also mention shagging cars, new Ferraris, bank statements, prerecorded reactions, Quantitude implied contract, necessary & sufficient, walk of shame, Patrick's Roz impression, working with explosives, potluck freeloaders, fixing a loading to your home address, and bad maps.Stay in contact with Quantitude! Twitter: @quantitudepod Web page: quantitudepod.org Merch: redbubble.com

In this week's episode Greg and Patrick get to explore modern methods for missing data analysis while belaboring quotes from Top Gun with their guest Craig Enders from the University of California at Los Angeles. Craig looks back over the past 20 years of developments in missing data analysis to discuss what has worked, what hasn't worked, and what new methods are available now that we didn't have back then. Along the way they also discuss Sean, Not Sean, going to the movies, grumpy old man mode, wiener boy, grave digger, Venice beach zoom backgrounds, Lie Awake, hung over GREs, Greg's grandmother, shiny objects, Motorola flip phones, Ask Jeeves, talking narwhals, mimeographs, unscrewing yourself, and who can be whose wingman.Stay in contact with Quantitude! Twitter: @quantitudepod Web page: quantitudepod.org Merch: redbubble.com

In this week's Halloween-themed episode, Patrick and Greg have fun talking about things in their academic jobs that scare them, from things that are a little scary to things that they find absolutely terrifying. Along the way they also discuss Mrs. Kopicky's caramel popcorn balls, Wolf of Wall Street, Kenny T, forgetting you've told a story before, forgetting you've told a story before, recurring nightmares, bending but not breaking, the zeta of teaching, Royale with Cheese, necessary roughness, authoritative parenting, shotgunning Pixie Stix, feelings integers, and if ain't Baroque. Stay in contact with Quantitude! Twitter: @quantitudepod Web page: quantitudepod.org Merch: redbubble.com

In this week's episode Greg and Patrick talk about the frequent gap between research questions and methods and ways to think about reengineering your variables, your parameters, or your entire model to help get what you want. Along the way they also mention: living in the dorms, Greek god sculpture rockets, not living in the dorms, Christmas tree timers, Def Leppard, Legos, Annie's flower shop, laser cannons, chin music, the tail wagging the dog, the Millennium Falcon, Greenday, stupid human tricks, Tony Robbins, Stuart Smalley, and Iron Man. Stay in contact with Quantitude! Twitter: @quantitudepod Web page: quantitudepod.org Merch: redbubble.com

In this week's episode Patrick and Greg spend a wonderful, if not at times awkward, hour talking with Dan Bauer about the genesis, application, and future directions of what may be the world's worst acronym: MNLFA, or moderated nonlinear factor analysis. Along the way they also mention unsolicited help from teenagers, gold stars, acronyms, words that start with "ci", aggressive mice, manipulating your advisors, 2nd spouses, MoNoLiFa, Quantitube, rewiring your brain, $1M calculators, and mod mod.

In this week's episode Patrick and Greg explore the often neglected method of two-stage least squares; they take a walk down memory lane to explore its origins and then drag it kicking and screaming into the 21st century for much promising use within the latent variable model. Along the way they also mention magic dishwashers, being under-estimated, blind pigs & truffles, Sadie Hawkins, intellectual spinning hook kicks, Fisher's eight-pack abs, the fine print, Winston Churchill vs. Chewbacca, Guinea pigs, Mrs. Lincoln, butter snacks, and snipe hunts.

This week Patrick and Greg talk about maximum likelihood estimation: what it is, where it comes from, how it works, what it can do, and what it can't do. Along they way they also mention tour-bombing your kid, licking the turtle, Van Halen and AC/DC, orange mustaches, brandy snifter pong, bus #27, Ronnie Fisher, why people hate us, circus tents, night parachuting, flat spots, lazy parabolas, vanilla ice cream, and statistical bouncers. 

In the opening episode to Season 4, Greg and Patrick delve into ordinary least squares estimation: where it came from, what it attempts to achieve, and where it can take us from here. Along the way they also discuss Golden Retrievers who are neither golden nor retrieve, Olivia Newton-John, sub-conning out their own work,  the meat sweats, sh*t you should know, being intolerably self-righteous, losing your camel, saying ham in French, Calvinball, Frank finding Gauss's corpse, crudely describing regression, and Sexy Hulk. 

In this, their 100th episode and Season 3 finale, Greg and Patrick talk about the challenges and joys of a career in academia. Helping to ensure that we don't let the bastards grind us down are the voices of three insightful assistant professors and three wonderful graduate students. Along the way, we also mention lining up the napkin, hug free zones, margarita night in 2003, relying on the kindness of strangers, Strunk & White voodoo, a mile-high C, Mr. October, going beyond the veil, the Black Plague, messages in bottles, the gates of the citadel, turning the container ship, work-work balance, being the bad guy, the focus groups in my head, 50cc of sodium phenobarbital, that'll do pig, front wheel drive/rear wheel drive, and attaboys.  

In this week's episode Patrick and Greg get to hang out with Noah Greifer from the Institute for Quantitative Social Sciences at Harvard University to delve into the fascinating world of propensity scores: what they are, how we obtain them, and how they can be thoughtfully used to strengthen our causal inferences. Along the way we also mention Popular Woodworking, fixing things on the back end, hiding your own Easter eggs, 18 hour warnings, easy undergrad majors, Meyers-Briggs career predictions, picking an ideal advisor, SASholes, demyelination, hearing asterisks, being an ANCOVist, the 11th Commandment, what keeps you up at night, answering the question you want to, and it's all BS. 

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: The accidental experiment that saved 700 lives (IRS & health insurance), published by Lizka on April 19, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. From Lizka: I really enjoy the blog, "Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science." Andrew Gelman, one of the authors of the blog, has given me permission to cross-post this post, which I thought some Forum readers might find interesting. As an aside, I like many other posts on the blog. Two examples are "Parables vs. stories" and "The social sciences are useless. So why do we study them? Here's a good reason:." Paul Alper sends along this news article by Sarah Kliff, who writes: Three years ago, 3.9 million Americans received a plain-looking envelope from the Internal Revenue Service. Inside was a letter stating that they had recently paid a fine for not carrying health insurance and suggesting possible ways to enroll in coverage. . . . Three Treasury Department economists [Jacob Goldin, Ithai Lurie, and Janet McCubbin] have published a working paper finding that these notices increased health insurance sign-ups. Obtaining insurance, they say, reduced premature deaths by an amount that exceeded any of their expectations. Americans between 45 and 64 benefited the most: For every 1,648 who received a letter, one fewer death occurred than among those who hadn't received a letter. . . . The experiment, made possible by an accident of budgeting, is the first rigorous experiment to find that health coverage leads to fewer deaths, a claim that politicians and economists have fiercely debated in recent years as they assess the effects of the Affordable Care Act's coverage expansion. The results also provide belated vindication for the much-despised individual mandate that was part of Obamacare until December 2017, when Congress did away with the fine for people who don't carry health insurance. “There has been a lot of skepticism, especially in economics, that health insurance has a mortality impact,” said Sarah Miller, an assistant professor at the University of Michigan who researches the topic and was not involved with the Treasury research. “It's really important that this is a randomized controlled trial. It's a really high standard of evidence that you can't just dismiss.” This graph shows how the treatment increased health care coverage during the months after it was applied: And here's the estimated effect on mortality: They should really label the lines directly. Sometimes it seems that economists think that making a graph easier to read is a form of cheating! I'd also like to see some multilevel modeling—as it is, they end up with lots of noisy estimates, lots of wide confidence intervals, and I think more could be done. But that's fine. It's best that the authors did what they did, which was to present their results. Now that the data are out there, other researchers can go back in and do more sophisticated analysis. That's how research should go. It would not make sense for such important results to be held under wraps, waiting for some ideal statistical analysis that might never happens. Overall, this is an inspiring story of what can be learned from a natural experiment. The news article also has this sad conclusion: At the end of 2017, Congress passed legislation eliminating the health law's fines for not carrying health insurance, a change that probably guarantees that the I.R.S. letters will remain a one-time experiment. But now that they have evidence that the letters had a positive effect, maybe they'll restart the program, no? Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org.

In this week's episode, Greg and Patrick talk about information theory: what it is, where it comes from, how it works, and how it can be used to make comparative model inferences. Along the way we also mention Pennsylvania 6-5000, the time lady, the Nobel Prize for Awesomeness, juggling and unicycles, enigma, imaginary friends, lemon juice code, red giants and white dwarves, bits, a level-11 paladin, Hungarian Forrest Gump, snake eyes and boxcar Willies, the Reaper Divergence Criterion, and getting inspirations on a train. 

In this week's episode Greg and Patrick discuss the sometimes terrifying issue of fungible weights in multiple regression and structural equation modeling in which selecting a trivially worse criterion of fit can often lead to radical changes in the corresponding parameter estimates. Along the way they also discuss competitive family Wordle, disambiguation, inflammability, perpitty, being nonplussed, running laps after practice, schmungible, audio eyerolls, Haystacks at Sunset, hyper eggs, the Spiderverse, mountain moonrises, tin cans and strings, and Earthquake Waller. 

In this week's episode Patrick and Greg explore Sewall Wright's path tracing rules as an alternative to covariance and matrix algebra, including how the rules work and the tremendous insights they can provide toward understanding a model. Along the way they also discuss the Unabomber, Crate & Barrel, grocery lane profiling, tedious as poop, throwing dead cats, senior animal husbandman, using your fingers, creepy guy in an alley, sweat pants vs. suits of armor, getaway car drivers, hold my Guinea pig, chalkboard contests, Western Kansas, and getting tased. 

In this week's episode Greg and Patrick continue their discussion from last week in The Mättrix Part Deux, exploring the magic of matrices including estimation, eigenvalues, and eigenvectors. Along the way they also mention flawed audio transcripts, 50 Shades of Greg, drunkenly shoving a matrix, drug mules, things you need, isomorphic interdigitation, plywood and tennis balls, heroin-filled condoms, talking to volleyballs, bawitdaba da bang a dang diggy diggy, meat grinders, not going to prom, vector bouquets, and The Wright Stuff.  

In this episode, David interviews Devon Conway who shares about her passions of hockey and data analysis. Devon is currently a full-time student pursuing her Masters Degree in Analytics and Statistical Modeling at Northeastern University. She also graduated from the University of Tampa with a finance degree and played on the soccer team there. Devon has worked for organizations such as the New York Yankees (in Tampa), the Tampa Bay Lightning, and the Florida Panthers. Devon also shares about being a woman in the sports world and her ultimate career goal of becoming an NHL GM!Ways to Connect with Devon:Instagram: @devonconway & @peanutbutterloveer