Podcasts about hypotheses

What happens when a product marketer leaves the in-house grind to start her own consultancy? According to Alex Virden, it changed how she saw product marketing entirely.In this episode, Virdical founder shares why PMMs aren't traditional marketers, how consulting rewires your thinking, and what startup leaders really need when they ask for help. From messy handoffs to misaligned messaging, Alex explains the recurring pain points that surface in the go-to-market function and how external voices can reset the entire narrative.She also share knowledge on:The power dynamics that make consultants more effective than internal PMMsWhy hourly billing models can backfire (and what to do instead)How to spot when your org needs a third-party voice to fix GTM strategyTactics for commanding a room with CEOs (even if you're the outsider)How to avoid getting pulled into the basement making decks and one-pagersPractical advice for PMMs transitioning into consulting or freelance workIf you've tried to run a strategic PMM project while dodging CEO opinions and internal politics, this episode is a must-listen. Whether you're in-house and underwater or eyeing the consultant leap, Alex Virden brings receipts, real talk, and a clear lens on what modern product marketing really looks like when done right

We're following up on our recent episode on Google's AI Co-Scientist with a special crossover episode from the Podovirus podcast. Hosts Dr Jessica Sacher and Dr Joe Campbell speak with José Penadés and Tiago Costa, scientists at Imperial College London who made a surprising discovery that Google's AI Co-Scientist later put forward as a hypothesis entirely on its own. The episode explores the fascinating world of bacteriophages (viruses that infect bacteria) and phage-inducible chromosomal islands (PICIs) - DNA sequences that hijack virus reproduction to spread themselves as a bacterial defense mechanism. The key mystery was how capsid-forming PICIs, which only encode virus heads without tails, managed to spread across different bacteria. The surprising answer, which eluded human scientists for years but which Google's AI Co-Scientist discovered through literature analysis, is that these capsids evolved to connect with various virus tails in the environment. This episode demonstrates how AI can now contribute to frontier scientific research beyond just grunt work - providing unbiased perspectives and key insights that accelerate discovery. It's a vivid example of science fiction becoming reality in our lifetimes. SPONSORS: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is the next-generation cloud platform that delivers better, cheaper, and faster solutions for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. Experience up to 50% savings on compute, 70% on storage, and 80% on networking with OCI's high-performance environment—try it for free with zero commitment at https://oracle.com/cognitive NetSuite by Oracle: NetSuite by Oracle is the AI-powered business management suite trusted by over 41,000 businesses, offering a unified platform for accounting, financial management, inventory, and HR. Gain total visibility and control to make quick decisions and automate everyday tasks—download the free ebook, Navigating Global Trade: Three Insights for Leaders, at https://netsuite.com/cognitive Shopify: Shopify powers millions of businesses worldwide, handling 10% of U.S. e-commerce. With hundreds of templates, AI tools for product descriptions, and seamless marketing campaign creation, it's like having a design studio and marketing team in one. Start your $1/month trial today at https://shopify.com/cognitive PRODUCED BY: https://aipodcast.ing CHAPTERS: (00:00) About the Episode (04:37) Welcome to Podovirus Podcast (04:58) Introducing the Special Guests and Topic (06:30) Exploring Mobile Genetic Elements (13:20) The Role of AI in Phage Research (16:48) Mechanisms of Gene Transfer (Part 1) (20:10) Sponsors: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure | NetSuite by Oracle (22:43) Mechanisms of Gene Transfer (Part 2) (23:36) Insights and Discoveries (28:45) Future Directions and Applications (Part 1) (32:35) Sponsors: Shopify (34:32) Future Directions and Applications (Part 2) (41:22) Unbiased Systems and Conjugation (42:35) Google's Excitement and Experimental Evidence (45:39) Benchmarking AI Systems (49:29) Manuscript Revisions and Future Plans (51:53) AI as a Collaborator in Scientific Research (54:52) Challenges and Hypotheses in Phage Biology (57:58) Future of AI in Scientific Research (01:05:52) Concluding Thoughts and Future Collaborations (01:12:07) Outro

Tim Herbig Connecting the dots of Product Strategy, Product OKRs, and Product DiscoveryIn this episode, we welcome Tim Herbig, a product leadership coach with a special focus on OKRs, in addition to product strategy and discovery. Tim shares his unique journey from product management to coaching, elaborating on the complexities and nuances of implementing OKRs in various business contexts. Through his insightful discussion, Tim covers the misconceptions about OKRs, the importance of adapting them to your specific needs, and effective strategies for measuring success. He also dives into the integration of product discovery and product strategy with OKRs, offering practical advice for product leaders facing challenges with OKR implementation. Whether you're in a startup or a large enterprise, Tim's expertise provides valuable perspectives on how to make OKRs work for your team.00:00 Introduction and Guest Welcome00:48 Tim Herbig's Journey into Product Management01:52 Transition to Coaching and Consultancy03:53 Specialization in OKRs and Product Management06:50 Adapting OKRs to Different Contexts09:46 Challenges and Strategies in OKR Implementation13:58 Measuring Success and Influence in OKRs22:47 OKRs in Product vs. Broader Company Context25:38 The Role of OKRs in Strategy and Discovery27:11 Confidence and Hypotheses in Strategy29:36 OKRs in Startups vs. Large Enterprises32:07 Adapting OKRs to Fit Your Context33:47 Common Misconceptions and Best Practices40:00 Aligning OKRs Across Teams47:43 When to Bring in OKR Support50:57 Conclusion and Contact Information

In this episode of Stories from the Subverse, Nayanika Mathur, Professor of Anthropology and South Asian Studies at the University of Oxford, delves into the conflict between big cats and humans. Nayanika's book, Crooked Cats: Beastly Encounters in the Anthropocene (2021), was a key source of inspiration for Cataplisms, which examines the intersections of capitalism through a feline lens. In this piece, Nayanika focuses on the governance of nonhuman animals, their entanglements with humans, and what the consequences are.  Mathur talks about the two types of big cats—the seeda saada (straightforward) ones who are scared of humans and keep their distance, and the crooked cats – the adam khor (maneaters) who prey on people. The reasons why some cats become man-eaters, while others avoid humans,  are widely debated. Hypotheses include that the cats have come from elsewhere, due to hunting and poaching, or that they're children of other man-eaters. This uncertainty has consequences. For example, the tiger Ustad, who resided in Ranthambore, was moved out of the sprawling environment of the national park to be confined in a zoo on the suspicion of being a man-eater. This move stirred a national controversy, eliciting an emotional outpouring and contradictory viewpoints. Ustad's life may have been restricted without cause. How does one govern the unknown?  Given the precarious status of most big cat species, the fact that hunting crooked cats is the standard solution of the Indian state becomes even more fraught. Especially, as Mathur underlines, when it is difficult to identify which cat is the crooked one. Drastic measures are often taken posthumously to ostensibly abide with the laws of the land and justify a kill.  Mathur emphasises the need to think more deeply about our entanglements with the non-human, revise our laws and institutional practices, and give up our crooked ways.  This audio story is part of the Cataplisms project. You can learn more about it here.  This story was produced by Tushar Das. You can find him on Instagram and his work on the Brown Monkey Studio website.    About Nayanika Mathur Nayanika Mathur is Professor of Anthropology and South Asian Studies as well as Fellow of Wolfson College at the University of Oxford, UK. Educated at the Universities of Delhi and Cambridge she is an anthropologist with an interest in studying the state, ethnographic methods, nonhumans, and the climate crisis. At Oxford Nayanika is co-director of a research network ‘Climate Crisis Thinking in the Humanities and Social Sciences' which explores the ways through which climate change poses a profound challenge to how the academy – from forms of writing and modes of teaching to disciplinary divisions – operates. Nayanika is the author of two monographs – Paper Tiger: Law, Bureaucracy, and the Developmental State in Himalayan India (Cambridge University Press 2016) and Crooked Cats: Beastly Encounters in the Anthropocene (Chicago University Press, 2021). The first is centred upon the study of bureaucrats and the second on big cats, though they are often confused. In her argument on the governance of big cats this connection - between the paper tiger that is the Indian state and the crooked cats that are entangled with the planetary crisis – becomes, one hopes, clearer. 

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In this episode of The Authority Company Podcast, Joe Pardavila is joined by Dr. Rick Van Pelt, a board-certified anesthesiologist and healthcare transformation leader, to discuss his new book, It's Not What You're Thinking: Precision Problem Solving With No Hypothesis. With over three decades of experience, Dr. Van Pelt shares his insights on why the healthcare system is "perfectly designed" to deliver its current results—and how to fix it. The conversation explores the challenges of driving change in healthcare, from systemic inefficiencies to the personal conflicts that arise when shifting long-standing practices. Dr. Van Pelt reveals a near-catastrophic medical event that reshaped his approach to conflict resolution and patient care, highlighting the importance of transparency and peer support in high-stakes environments. Listeners and viewers will gain a fresh perspective on problem-solving, learning why traditional hypotheses often fail and how precision problem-solving—rooted in observation and collaboration—can lead to meaningful solutions. From OR delays to the "white wall of silence" in healthcare culture, this episode is packed with candid stories and actionable insights for leaders in any industry. Tune in to discover how to tackle complex problems by focusing on what's actually happening—not just what we think is happening.Dr. RICK VAN PELT has over three decades of experience as a board-certified anesthesiologist and leader in healthcare transformation. Throughout his career, he has pioneered innovative approaches to improving clinical performance, quality, and patient safety, working with frontline-empowered teams to redesign healthcare delivery. His expertise spans system-based performance improvement, implementation science, and clinical variation management to improve structure, process, and outcomes across health systems. He is also a pioneer of peer support integration and creating solutions to the root causes of burnout faced by healthcare providers. Currently serving as the Chief Clinical Transformation Officer at UAB Medicine, Dr. van Pelt is known for facilitating sustained change in complex healthcare environments with his talented clinical transformation team.

This Spring, UVA welcomed the Story Collider team back to Charlottesville for the third year running. During a special recording at Carr's Hill, four UVA STEM leaders told personal stories about their lives, their careers, and how personal stories and scientific inquiry intertwine. We hope you'll head over to Story Collider to hear from Scott Acton, Chair of UVA's Chair of the Electrical and Computer Engineering Department, and Stephanie Rowley, Dean of the School of Education and Human Development; and Hoos in STEM is very excited to share the other two stories from some the event. Here's Bill Petri, the Chief of the Division of Infectious Diseases and International Health at UVA, and Kathryn Thornton a retired astronaut and Professor Emerita at UVA in the School of Engineering and Applied Science. The Story Collider's mission is to reveal the vibrant role that science plays in all of our lives through the art of personal storytelling. Check out all the Story Collider episodes: https://www.storycollider.org/podcast

Richard Brenner: Hypothesis-Driven Product Ownership, The Experimental Mindset Read the full Show Notes and search through the world's largest audio library on Agile and Scrum directly on the Scrum Master Toolbox Podcast website: http://bit.ly/SMTP_ShowNotes. The Great Product Owner: The Experimenter Richard describes great Product Owners as "experimenters" who understand that everything they do is a hypothesis requiring validation. The best POs establish feedback loops early, actively engage with users and clients, and approach product development with a scientific mindset. Richard shares an experience working with a "coaching PO" who excelled at involving everyone in defining what needed to be done.  This PO was inspiring and helped the team participate in both building and decision-making processes. Richard emphasizes that the relationship between PO and team must be a true partnership—not hierarchical—for success to occur. Great POs facilitate team involvement rather than dictating direction, creating an environment where collaborative problem-solving thrives. In this segment, we refer to the Role Expectation Matrix Retrospective, and the Product Owner Sprint Checklist, a hands-on coaching tool for anyone interested in helping PO's prepare and lead successful Sprints with their teams. The Bad Product Owner: The Tech Visionary Disconnected from Users Richard recounts working with a high-level sponsor, a medical doctor interested in technology, who hired multiple development teams (up to four Scrum teams) to build a product. While technically knowledgeable, this PO had very concrete ideas about both the technology and solution based on assumptions about client needs.  The team developed impressive technology, including a domain-specific language (DSL), and felt they were performing well—until they delivered to actual clients. Only then did they discover users couldn't effectively use the software, requiring a complete rethinking of the UX concept. This experience taught Richard the critical distinction between the customer (the sponsor/PO) and the actual end users, demonstrating how even technically sophisticated Product Owners can miss essential user needs without proper validation. Self-reflection Question: How might you help Product Owners in your organization balance their vision with the practical realities of user needs and feedback? [Scrum Master Toolbox Podcast Recommends]

Can the gender of your surgeon influence your outcome after surgery? New research says yes. In this episode of BackTable Urology, Dr. Christopher J.D. Wallis, a prominent urologic oncologist and health services researcher in Toronto, joins guest host Dr. Casey Seideman for a pivotal conversation at the intersection of surgical outcomes, gender, and health equity. This episode was developed in collaboration with the Society of Women in Urology (SWIU). --- SYNPOSIS Drawing from extensive studies and meta-analyses, Dr. Wallace highlights a significant mortality benefit for patients treated by female surgeons. The episode explores how these findings have sparked discussions on surgeon practices, patient care, and gender equity in medicine. Dr. Wallace also shares personal experiences to underline the importance of diversity and inclusive practices in healthcare. Finally, the two urologists discuss challenges faced when supporting diversity efforts and opportunities for future progress. --- TIMESTAMPS 00:00 - Introduction 04:01 - Personal Experience with Gender Bias in Surgery 07:05 - Groundbreaking Data on Surgeon Sex and Patient Outcomes 12:23 - Long-Term Outcomes and Consistency in Data 14:14 - Hypotheses and Underlying Reasons for Better Outcomes with Female Surgeons 20:18 - Impact on Healthcare Costs and Productivity 26:14 - Challenges and Pushback in the Medical Community 35:05 - Conclusion --- RESOURCES Society of Women in Urology https://swiu.org/home.aspx

Pretty simple to make a hypothesis, right? If/Then statement, and boom, done. I already did most of the hard work in just having the framework.Not quite.A lot of work (and pre-work) SHOULD go into making a hypothesis, so that it can go from a "meh" but functional hypothesis, to a hypothesis that not only drives results, but trust in your experimentation program too! And bonus: Juliana "Run the Jewels" Jackson offers 2 columns / buckets of info you probably never considered which should be available for stakeholders to improve on the presentation of the hypothesis and test doc as a whole. We got into: - What exactly IS a hypothesis (good AND bad) - Why your hypotheses actually suck (and how to make it better)- Going beyond the hypothesis to make sure your test ideas are matching what stakeholders are looking forTimestamps:00:00 Episode Start07:24 Hypotheses Need to Reflect What the Business Truly Cares About12:54 Example of a GOOD Hypothesis20:21 Do Hypotheses Need to Be MORE Tactical? Or More Strategic? (In Their Wording?)27:18 Juliana's Two "Can't Miss" Buckets of Information You MUST Have for Every Test34:31 Shit You Need to Know: Haley CarpenterGo follow Juliana on LinkedIn, and check out her amazing “Standard Deviation Podcast” too!- https://www.linkedin.com/in/juliana-jackson/- https://www.linkedin.com/company/standard-deviation-podcast/ Make sure you go follow Haley and check out her post too! https://tinyurl.com/FromAtoBHaleyIf you have listener questions, submit them at https://tinyurl.com/askfromatob for a chance to be featured too!

Reading graphs is a perennial problem for many candidates. Yet, the problem is not the interpretation of the graphical data itself. Rather, it is knowing what to do with that data once you have interpreted it. This podcast introduces a simple 4-step process we introduced for a Yale doctoral client, Felix, and a technique called the One-Sentence-Test which we again developed for the same client. The improvement in her answers warrants sharing this technique. You can see Felix's Improvement in Season One of The Consulting Offer.   Here are some free gifts for you:   Overall Approach Used in Well-Managed Strategy Studies free download: www.firmsconsulting.com/OverallApproach   McKinsey & BCG winning resume free download: www.firmsconsulting.com/resumepdf   Enjoying this episode? Get access to sample advanced training episodes here: www.firmsconsulting.com/promo

For this episode, let's revisit a Case Interview & Management Consulting classic, building of our technique to develop hypotheses, this podcast explains a clever way to generate creative hypotheses. In essence, the podcast will be useful to candidates who have already seen how we brainstorm and generate hypotheses, since this podcast expands on that thinking. The core of this idea is that if more than one structure can be brainstormed for a case, each of those structures can be used to develop a new type of hypothesis. This is a very, very simple technique as well.   Here are some free gifts for you:   Overall Approach Used in Well-Managed Strategy Studies free download: www.firmsconsulting.com/OverallApproach   McKinsey & BCG winning resume free download: www.firmsconsulting.com/resumepdf   Enjoying this episode? Get access to sample advanced training episodes here: www.firmsconsulting.com/promo

Geoff Anders is the director of Leverage Research, a think tank devoted to understanding the nature of progress and the arc of scientific insights. Anders wants to understand what sort of cultural context creates the ability to make valuable insights into the mechanisms of nature. After mapping some of the interplay between science, society, and religion, we turn to the questions of how to spark a golden age at a time where institutions feel increasingly frail, just how effective we want our science to be, and what to do with the fact that everyone seems to really love magic. DEMYSTICON 2025 ANNUAL MEETING IN PORTUGAL!!! June 12-16: https://demystifysci.com/demysticon-2025 PATREON: get episodes early + join our weekly Patron Chat https://bit.ly/3lcAasB MERCH: Rock some DemystifySci gear : https://demystifysci.myspreadshop.com/ AMAZON: Do your shopping through this link: https://amzn.to/3YyoT98 SUBSTACK: https://substack.com/@UCqV4_7i9h1_V7hY48eZZSLw@demystifysci (00:00) Go! (00:00:08) Demysticon 2025 (00:05:26) Challenging Conventional Understanding (00:07:06) Institutional Life Cycles (00:13:29) Transition from Natural Philosophy to Science (00:24:09) Magic, Myth, and Mysticism (00:30:34) Hypotheses and the Infinite Regression (00:35:10) Science v Technology (00:40:07) Nature and the Human Relation to It (00:45:08) Culture, Technology, and Societal Choices (00:54:00) Science as Mythology (01:00:28) The Challenge of Paradigm Shifts (01:11:09) Reforming Scientific Society (01:15:58) Biological Complexity and Reconstruction (01:24:23) Science Education and Historical Insights (01:32:21) Anomalous Evidences (01:46:16) Nanotechnology and Quantum Biology (01:57:10) AI & Quantum Computing Paradigms (02:05:02) Bridging the Knowledge Gap (02:09:10) The Importance of Practical Application (02:23:50) Historical Discoveries (02:26:21) Francis Hawksbee (02:33:02) Scarcity Mindset in Academia and Research (02:38:16) The Pace of Progress (02:41:10) Balance Between Order and Chaos #philosophy, #scientificinnovation, #quantumbiology, #scienceandphilosophy, #paradigmshift, #cosmology,#paradigmshiftinscience, #philosophyofscience, #natureandtechnology, #futureofai, #philosophypodcast, #sciencepodcast, #longformpodcast Check our short-films channel, @DemystifySci: https://www.youtube.com/c/DemystifyingScience AND our material science investigations of atomics, @MaterialAtomics https://www.youtube.com/@MaterialAtomics Join our mailing list https://bit.ly/3v3kz2S PODCAST INFO: Anastasia completed her PhD studying bioelectricity at Columbia University. When not talking to brilliant people or making movies, she spends her time painting, reading, and guiding backcountry excursions. Shilo also did his PhD at Columbia studying the elastic properties of molecular water. When he's not in the film studio, he's exploring sound in music. They are both freelance professors at various universities. - Blog: http://DemystifySci.com/blog - RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/2be66934/podcast/rss - Donate: https://bit.ly/3wkPqaD - Swag: https://bit.ly/2PXdC2y SOCIAL: - Discord: https://discord.gg/MJzKT8CQub - Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/DemystifySci - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/DemystifySci/ - Twitter: https://twitter.com/DemystifySci MUSIC: -Shilo Delay: https://g.co/kgs/oty671

After many weeks of reading the hypotheses on fornication and the pursuit of purity of heart, what finally comes into focus is the fruit of the fathers' experience in the struggle. What they discovered is that discipline, fasting, vigils, etc. are absolutely necessary. Yet these practices are not ends in themselves. They are to be a reflection of our desire for God and our seeking in love our soul's Beloved.  Desire is what gives us the capacity to love and give ourselves in love. In it we sense a lack that only God can satisfy. Ascetic practice is not meant to be an act of contempt for our human nature, but rather an acknowledgment of the strength and the power of our natural desires. What is good can become disordered whenever there is an imbalance or lack of measure. Our natural desire, Eros, can only be transformed by Divine Eros. Therefore, it is only by grace that the passions can be overcome.  Our hearts must be filled with an urgent longing for God.  Outside of the acknowledgment of the necessity of Grace, we become the most pitiable of all creatures. So long as we hold onto the illusion of overcoming the passions by raw grit, we will find ourselves returning to our sin or sinking into a much darker place of anger and pride. St. John Cassian tells us we must “base our courage not on our own power or on our asceticism, but in the aid of God, our Master”. When this takes place, even the deepest recesses of the unconscious can be healed and transformed. Likewise, the  countenance of the pure of heart begins to change; we begin to see the inner beauty that rest in the heart of one who loves and desires God wholly. --- Text of chat during the group: 00:04:03 Lori Hatala: reboot 00:12:17 Una: Problem with sound? 00:12:25 Una: Yes 00:13:01 Una: It's good now 00:13:08 Una: . Can hear you humming 00:16:33 Lilly: Do you know Fr Teodosy? 00:16:34 ANDREW ADAMS: My copy came today! 00:21:09 Una: What page? I'm lost 00:21:23 ANDREW ADAMS: 190 00:21:50 Una: Thanks 00:32:34 Lilly: Asking this question respectfully, if a Priest can't cure his passion, would it be appropriate to take medicine to help ? 00:33:37 Lilly: Generally speaking, no specific medicatiob 00:33:42 Lilly: n* 00:37:28 Suzanne Romano: My experience has been that the grace of continence is given to those who use the means God gives, and is diligent in avoiding the occasions of sin. 00:48:38 Anthony: Life is like art. Each of us is a unique material: canvas, copper foil, paper, wood. Part of Christian life is learning what material we are and what techniques best bring out the beatific vision in the material we are.  The same image can be brought out uniquely in each different art. 00:52:24 Suzanne Romano: Father, may I ask a question that relates to the previous Hypotheses on gluttony?  00:52:37 Forrest Cavalier: Elias in the earlier story did not mutilate, emasculate, or injure himself. By avoiding injury, keeping his masculinity intact, and building on nature, he returned to serve the convent in a very masculine and fatherly way for a long time. It would have been tragic if he deformed the gifts God had given him. 00:52:52 Myles Davidson: Is using caffeine during a night vigil cheating? 00:54:22 Una: It can mess with your sleep when you do get to bed 00:54:59 Una: I used to write until 3 a.m. during my last novel. 00:56:09 Suzanne Romano: Father, may I ask a question that relates to the previous Hypotheses on gluttony?  00:56:59 Suzanne Romano: Thank you. I can distill three principles from the readings: Eat once per day; stop eating before you are completely full; and never eat for the sheer sake of pleasure or comfort. If one takes up these three principles as a regular discipline, are there ever times when it is permissible to take something just for pleasure or comfort - say on Sundays or on Holidays - say, a dessert or a hot cocoa, etc? 00:59:25 Anthony: Haha 00:59:34 Carol Roper: Reacted to "Haha" with

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What causes the “red wine headache”? Is it sulfites? A histamine reaction? Andrew Waterhouse, Professor Emeritus of Enology in the Department of Viticulture and Enology at UC Davis and Apramita Devi, Postdoctoral Scholar in the Department of Viticulture and Enology at UC Davis have identified a flavanol that can interfere with the metabolism of alcohol. That flavanol is quercetin, a natural product made in grape skins in response to sunlight. It is a natural sunscreen produced to protect the fruit from ultraviolet light. This conversation covers why quercetin may be more prevalent in high end wines, how skin contact during wine production impacts quercetin levels, and why sulfites may play a role in “red wine headache”. Resources:         74: The Spirit of Wine Andrew Waterhouse Andrew Waterhouse | Google Scholar Andrew Waterhouse | LinkedIn Apramita Devi | LinkedIn Apramita Devi |Google Scholar Inhibition of ALDH2 by quercetin glucuronide suggests a new hypothesis to explain red wine headaches Why Do Some People Get Headaches From Drinking Red Wine?  Vineyard Team Programs: Juan Nevarez Memorial Scholarship - Donate SIP Certified – Show your care for the people and planet   Sustainable Ag Expo – The premiere winegrowing event of the year Sustainable Winegrowing On-Demand (Western SARE) – Learn at your own pace Vineyard Team – Become a Member Get More Subscribe wherever you listen so you never miss an episode on the latest science and research with the Sustainable Winegrowing Podcast. Since 1994, Vineyard Team has been your resource for workshops and field demonstrations, research, and events dedicated to the stewardship of our natural resources. Learn more at www.vineyardteam.org.   Transcript [00:00:00] Beth Vukmanic: What causes. The red wine headache? Is it sulfites or a histamine reaction? [00:00:10] Welcome to sustainable wine growing with the vineyard team. Where we bring you the latest in science and research for the wine industry. I'm Beth Vukmanic executive director. I've been your team. Since 1994, we've brought you the latest science-based practices, experts growers and wine industry tools through both infield and online education. So that you can grow your business. Please raise a glass. With us as we cheers to 30 years. [00:00:37] In today's podcast, Craig Macmillan, critical resource. Manager at Niner wine estates with long time sip certified. Vineyard and the first ever sip certified winery. Speaks with two university of California Davis researchers. Andrew Waterhouse. Professor emeritus of enology and the department. of, viticulture and enology. And. Oprah meta Debbie. Post-doctoral scholar and the department of viticulture and enology. [00:01:04] They have identified a flavonol that can interfere. With the metabolism of alcohol. And that flavonol is called quercetin. A natural product made in the grape skins in response. To sunlight. It's a natural sunscreen produced to protect. The fruit from ultraviolet light. This conversation covers. Why quercetin may be more prevalent in high end wines. How. Skin contact during wine production impacts quercetin levels. And why sulfites may still play a role in that red wine headache. [00:01:36] Want to be more connected with the viticulture industry. But don't know where to start become a vineyard team member. Get access. to the latest science-based practices, experts, growers, and wine industry. The tools. Through both infield and online education so that you. You can grow your business. Visit vineyard team.org. And choose grower or business to join the community today. [00:01:57] Now let's listen. in. [00:02:01] Craig Macmillan: Our guests today are Andrew Waterhouse, Professor Emeritus in Enology in the Department of Viticulture Davis, and also Aparmita Devi. She is a postdoctoral scholar, also in the Department of Viticulture & Enology Davis. Thank you both for being here. [00:02:17] Andrew Waterhouse: Oh, we're glad to be here. [00:02:19] Craig Macmillan: Today we're going to talk about a really interesting topic. It's the role of quercetin , in wine headaches. The two of you recently co authored a paper on this one particular mechanism that might cause some people to get a headache after drinking even a small amount of red wine. But before we get into that, I want to ask you, how did you get interested in this topic? [00:02:37] Andrew Waterhouse: Well I've been talking to Steve Mathiasson. He's a Napa winemaker for actually quite a while, some years back. He suffers from headaches when he drinks certain wines. And we were chatting about possible mechanisms, and we even did a study many years ago with another postdoc in my lab to investigate a question we had or a theory we had, and that didn't pan out. But more recently we were chatting again, and I got interested in the topic again, and that's what got me interested, you know, just somebody knowledgeable who was suffering from headaches and. for listening. It was, it makes it more real and it's like, well, maybe we can figure something out. So that's what got us started. [00:03:17] Craig Macmillan: Apramita , how same for you. [00:03:19] Apramita Devi: Yeah. Same. Like I've been in touch with Andy and we have been talking about this project many years. So I was always interested because I come from biological science and metabolism and stuff I got interested after talking to Andy. [00:03:33] Craig Macmillan: Well, let's start with some basics. What is quercetin? [00:03:38] Andrew Waterhouse: Well, basically, it's a natural product made by grapes, but it's a very specific one. It's in the class of polyphenolic compounds, and it's in the class of flavonoids called flavonols. And what makes it interesting, I think, is that it is made By grapes, in the skin of the grape, and only in the skin of the grape, in response to sunlight. It's sometimes referred to as sunscreen for grapes. And it specifically absorbs UV light that would cause damage to, say, DNA and other macromolecules. So it's very clear that the grapes are producing this in order to protect themselves from ultraviolet light. [00:04:22] Craig Macmillan: Right. [00:04:22] Andrew Waterhouse: So the amount that's present in wine is highly dependent on the amount of sunlight the grapes experience. Not the vine, but the grapes themselves, And a friend of mine, Steve Price, was the first to note this. In a study way back in the 90s on Pinot Noir, he noted that there was more quercetin in sun exposed Pinot Noir grapes. And that observation has been confirmed many times now in different studies. where sun exposure is correlated with quercetin levels. [00:04:58] Craig Macmillan: and this is true just for red grapes as opposed to white grapes. [00:05:02] Andrew Waterhouse: Oh, no, no, there's more in white grapes. But when you make white wine, you throw away the skins. So there's no opportunity to get those materials into the wine. Now, an exception might be orange wine. But I don't know of any data on orange wine. [00:05:21] Craig Macmillan: Apramita , maybe you can talk about the metabolism part, the biology part. So when people consume alcohol, it's metabolized down certain pathways. Quercetin is also metabolized by the body into other forms? [00:05:33] Apramita Devi: Yeah, so the pathway for alcohol and quercetin are a bit different, but the location is liver, where it goes. So when people consume alcohol, it goes to the liver and then there are two enzymes which work on the alcohol. So the first enzyme is alcohol dehydrogenase, which convert it into alcohol into acetaldehyde. The acetaldehyde is the like the toxic metabolite in the body and it can have many side effects. That's why body has to get rid of it out of the liver system. So it has a second enzyme which is called the acetaldehyde dehydrogenase. So that convert acetaldehyde dehydrogenase into a non toxic component, which is acetate or acetic system. [00:06:24] So it comes out of the body. What happens when you consume quercetin along in the body, the quercetin also goes to the liver. Because quercetin adds too much quercetin as such is not good for the body and it has low bioavailability. So liver tag it in the form of quercetin glucuronide and then the body knows that it has to be flushed out of the system. So the interesting part is that when you consume alcohol and quercetin together, You are taking the both the metabolite acetaldehyde and quercetin gluconide in the same location inside the liver. And it gives the quercetin gluconide to interact with the acetaldehyde dehydrogenase enzyme. And that acetaldehyde dehydrogenase enzyme now cannot work efficiently. to convert the acetaldehyde into the acetate. So basically you are building up acetaldehyde in the body and it's not coming out of the system and you are seeing all those negative effects of the acetaldehyde in the form of flushing or headache or not. The other systems like what's like sweating. so we think that there is a correlation between these two pathways, which might be associated in red wine system. [00:07:47] Craig Macmillan: And how did you design your study? [00:07:51] Apramita Devi: The first when I talked to Andy, like he told me that he thinks that this system is because of inflammatory pathways and inflammation system. So he was kind of like, there is something in red wine, which is Triggering this kind of pathways or there is some system so, but we were not sure what exactly are those inflammatory system. [00:08:16] So we went back and saw some literature and we kind of find that there are some studies which told that quercitans inhibit the dehydrogenase enzymes and that what triggered us that okay alcohol is metabolized by these dehydrogenase enzymes. And wine also has these phenolics. So what kind of phenolics, other kinds of phenolics, or what types of phenolics can do this inhibition? [00:08:45] The method was basically in, was based on having different phenolics, which are present in red wines more compared to white wines, select them. And then just, we find this enzyme kits in the market to do this dehydrogenase. Inhibition tests like you put the test compound and it tells whether the enzyme is the inhibited or not. [00:09:09] So we just did that in a test tube system, like we added our phenolics with the enzyme, and we saw that which kind of phenolics are inhibiting this enzyme and screening them out. out of all. So while doing that, we screened different types of quercetin, like quercetin glucoside, quercetin galactosides, and other forms. [00:09:32] Then we also tested other phenolics. I can for all my rest in and other stuff. And we also choose quercetin gluconide because that is the metabolite which is circulating in the body. And then we kind of screen them based on the in the enzyme system and we see how much inhibition is happening there. [00:09:54] Andrew Waterhouse: Yeah. So what we did was a very basic test to experiment. We didn't test anything on people. [00:10:01] We basically tested to see which of these compounds could inhibit that enzyme because we knew that if that an enzyme could be inhibited the acetaldehyde would accumulate and you'd end up with people in that condition would end up with Flushing, headaches, as Aparmita said, all kinds of other symptoms. [00:10:20] Craig Macmillan: And this would vary by person. Different people may have a proclivity to produce more of certain enzymes than others. Is that true? [00:10:29] Andrew Waterhouse: We don't really have any information about that. That's going to take a lot of more work to test you know, the, the details here. For instance. Some people get red wine headaches and some don't, but we don't know whether, for instance, perhaps their enzymes are more inhibited by quercetin glucuronide, or maybe they're just more sensitive to acetaldehyde. [00:10:52] So that's going to take, you know, human studies where we measure a bunch of things. And try to figure out, try to sort through the, the details of how this impacts people individually. [00:11:04] Craig Macmillan: What would a study , with people, investigating this, what would the design be like? How would somebody go about doing that? [00:11:12] Andrew Waterhouse: Okay. So a human study. Could have a couple different possible designs. The one we'll probably use is we'll simply find two wines, two red wines, one that's low in quercetin and one that's high. And then those will be administered to people who get red wine headaches. We'll give it to them blind, they'll have to agree of course to participate in the study. [00:11:37] And then we'll see if their experience of headaches is related to the quantity of quercetin. Now, there's some other designs we could imagine using, which might be a little more straightforward, but we're not sure how relevant they would be or whether we could get approval to do this. So, for instance, one approach would be to find a red wine that's low in quercetin and then simply add it. [00:12:00] Now adding it is tricky for a number of technical reasons. Quercetin itself is very insoluble, so we would have to add what's called a glycoside of quercetin. So we'd have to get our hands on something that would dissolve, et cetera, et cetera. We're not sure we could get approval for that because we're adding a chemical to wine. [00:12:21] Now, the chemical would probably be classified as a supplement, and so it might be approvable, as it were. And then another very simple experiment, which we thought about a while ago, you can buy quercetin as a supplement in the market. It's readily available. [00:12:38] So, one possibility is to simply give our subjects a glass of vodka and give them pills that either contain quercetin or a placebo and see if there's a relationship between administration of quercetin and headaches. [00:12:54] Now the, the quercetin itself, as I mentioned, is very insoluble. So we may have to get these more bioavailable forms of quercetin for that experiment. [00:13:04] Craig Macmillan: That leads to a wine making question. So, if it's relatively insoluble is quercetin extracted from skins more in the alcohol phase at the end of fermentation? [00:13:11] Andrew Waterhouse: Yeah. It's, it's, it's extracted fairly quickly because it's in the skin, in the grapes, it's in the form of what are called glycosides. So these, Has the quercetin molecule with the sugar attached. That makes all those forms very soluble. [00:13:27] Craig Macmillan: Oh, okay. Okay. [00:13:29] Andrew Waterhouse: There's actually an occasional problem with certain red wines, most commonly Sangiovese, where after bottling the wine has had a large quantity of quercetin glucosides. And after bottling, they break down, the glycosides break down, releasing just a simple a glycone, quercetin, and you get this disgusting looking gooey brown precipitate in the bottle. [00:13:56] Craig Macmillan: ha [00:13:57] Andrew Waterhouse: Every few years I know the folks at ETS in Napa get somebody showing up with a bottle of Sangiovese that's got this. Disgusting sludge in it, and they can tell them without analyzing that. Yes, another case, of course, it's in precipitate in the bottom. [00:14:15] Craig Macmillan: Huh, that's interesting. I believe it was mentioned in the paper that , obviously different growing conditions are going to lead to different levels of quercetin and grapes based on how much sun exposure they have, etc. And that also different winemaking techniques would have an impact. [00:14:29] If consumers are looking for products if they know they have a headache issue Is it possible they could experiment with different product types? Products that were made with different production methods if they can find that out that might Impact their sensitivity or might impact how often it happens [00:14:46] Andrew Waterhouse: Yeah, it's a pity that. Consumers wouldn't have information on the level of quercetin. We would very much like to do a study along those lines, but we haven't been able to find any funding for that, just in case somebody wants to support that kind of work, we're happy to work with them. but anyway you know, it hasn't really been an issue for winemakers, so there isn't a lot of data out there. [00:15:08] There are a few studies that published amounts of quercetin, you know, in wines from different places, but the data is very, very limited and not really useful in providing consumers guidance. The one thing we can say is because, as I mentioned earlier, sun exposure is very important, in general if you look at a particular type of wine, a varietal, say Cabernet or Pinot Noir, that the grapes that are grown on very large vines, will have less sun exposure. [00:15:39] Essentially if you have a very highly productive vineyard making targeting an inexpensive line, you probably have much more shading of the fruit as a consequence of lower quercetin levels. Compared to a very high end vineyard, usually, the amount of sunlight is very tightly controlled, and one of the reasons for that is that there's very good data showing that wines that are high in quercetin have a better mouthfeel, better texture in the mouth. And it's not clear whether quercetin is directly responsible or whether it's a marker for something else that's produced under those conditions that leads to that. many years ago, we did a study looking at phenolics in Cabernet, and we observed that the very high end Cabernets that we tested were much higher in quercetin than the sort of average price type product. [00:16:35] And I think that that was true then. It's probably true now that, you know, a very good cabernet is, is made with very tight control of sun exposure. And there is a fair amount, of course, it can't be a complete sun exposure, or they probably get raisins by the end of the harvest, by the time you get to harvest, but there's a very deliberate management of sun exposure in high end wines. And it's for a reason to, get to higher quality product. [00:17:04] Craig Macmillan: Right, exactly! And, We know that the managed sun exposure, quercetin is a part of it but also it's connected to just total phenolics in general. Lots and lots of different compounds that are, you know, semi related. And I actually wanted to go back Aprametia you identified the quercetin glucuronide as being The highest in the ones that you tested, were there other things in that test and that assay that all were also stood out, maybe not as high as that, but really kind of stuck out as being different than the rest. [00:17:39] Apramita Devi: Actually, the quercetin gluconide was a standalone as a very high, like it's like 78%. The other things were around in that 30 percent range, so I'm not sure how significant was the impact of that, but there were quercetin glycosides forms, which were like around 30 percent inhibition of the enzyme, but [00:18:03] all others were very low. [00:18:04] Craig Macmillan: yeah, so it really stood out basically as it was head and shoulders above it. I would like to put this work into context a little bit. I, I work with the public quite a bit as part of my job and I have for years. And this topic comes up. All the time. This information definitely helps me my goal, when I talk to a consumer that has an issue with, wine headache or whatever it's not that I'm trying to sell them a product as much as it is. [00:18:29] They want to enjoy wine. They tell me this, they say, Oh, I love to have it. I just can't. Da da da. And then they'll say, it's like sulfites. And then I'll kind of explore that with them a little bit. Like, so can you eat dried fruit? Do you eat canned fruit? Do you have reactions to this or to that? Are you asthmatic? [00:18:48] Kind of sort that out and go, okay, I don't think maybe that's it. Maybe it's not. The other ones that I just learned about about 10 years ago was a biogenic amines, which made a lot of sense to me in terms of things like histamine reactions. What is your feeling about sulfites is contributing biogenic amines. [00:19:04] Maybe there's other things we haven't hit on, on this topic. What are your feelings about the, kind of the big picture of what potential for a diagnosing assist? [00:19:15] Andrew Waterhouse: Why don't you talk about amines [00:19:16] Craig Macmillan: Yes, please, [00:19:18] Apramita Devi: Biogenic amines like mostly the histamine and tyramine are the main ones people talk about whenever they come with this headache stuff. So I think because it's formed in the wine during the fermentation process, and there are these spec microbes which can convert the amino acids into this, biogenic amines the histamines are part of inflammatory reactions. People know that in biology and immunology. So it's very easy to be people connected that it might be a reason why people get headache. But what I always focus is like, there are far more other food products, for example, fermented meat products, which has far more higher amount of these biogenic amines. do people get headache if they have something similar with alcohol eating together with alcohol or something like that? But there is no mechanism told till now, they just tell that, oh, since it's histamine and it's related to this inflammatory reactions, it might be the cause. But there is no solid proof that it is the cause. [00:20:27] so I don't know whether it's there or it might be a pathway or not. [00:20:33] Craig Macmillan: One of the things that I find fascinating is how we evolve our, Hypotheses about things over time, and somebody has an hypothesis and they test it out, maybe they find something, maybe they don't, but then that kicks off this whole set of what I call naive science making up stories about why. [00:20:53] It's kind of a just so story. It's like, well, obviously then somebody comes along and checks it and says, Hey, wait a second. And we're no, or if this was true, then that would have to be true. And that's not true. You know, and that kind of thing and how we keep coming around to new ideas, which is what you folks have done, which I think is really, really cool. [00:21:10] Andrew Waterhouse: I was going to answer your question about sulfites. It's a really big question actually. Partly because sulfites have so much visibility and there's so much concern about it. I think sulfites themselves Have been studied pretty carefully there's one study where if they gave subjects a very high level of sulfites in wine, it was like very small, but statistically significant increase in headaches. [00:21:39] Or some adverse reaction, but other studies have shown no correlation. By the way, sulfites are antioxidants in case you hadn't heard that. So it seems very unlikely that sulfites by themselves are some sort of bad actor in this regard. Like you, I get these questions all the time. And what I heard so many times was. Oh, it's cheap wine. It gives me a headache. [00:22:06] Craig Macmillan: Yes. [00:22:07] Andrew Waterhouse: And have you heard [00:22:08] Craig Macmillan: I've heard that many times. And then on the opposite side of things, I've heard stuff like, Oh, I get headaches from American wine, but I don't get it from French wine. Or I always get headaches from European wines, but I never from California wine. So I'm trying to figure out, is there something going on? [00:22:26] Like, can you be allergic to burgundy? You know what I'm saying? Cause I mean, it could be, it could be something about burgundy. It's just stuff going on. And then the opposite. I had a guy who says, no, I don't have any that. But he says I was traveling in France, and we were drinking wine like it was water, and I never had a hangover symptom, and I did it, and I was like, I don't know dude, like I [00:22:45] Andrew Waterhouse: Yeah. Well, there's, there's one answer to some of this, which is if you're on vacation and you don't have to get up early and you're relaxed and you probably don't get as many headaches. [00:22:58] Craig Macmillan: Right. [00:22:59] Andrew Waterhouse: So I think that's a large part of it, especially for Americans visiting Europe. They're on vacation. but I think there is something to the sulfites question. And that is that inexpensive wine often, not always, but often has more bound sulfites. [00:23:18] Craig Macmillan: Yep. [00:23:19] Andrew Waterhouse: And this is probably because those grapes have a little bit more mold on them or a lot more mold. And when they get to the crusher, the winemaker goes, Oh, there's mold on these fruits. So we're going to add sulfites to, to take care of the botrytis, right? [00:23:34] We don't want the fruit to get oxidized and damaged. They had a bunch of sulfites. The consequence of that is that in the finished line, There's a lot more. Bound to SO2, which shows up in the total SO2 number. [00:23:47] You know what it's bound to? [00:23:49] Craig Macmillan: No. [00:23:49] Andrew Waterhouse: It's bound to largely acid aldehyde. [00:23:52] Craig Macmillan: Really? [00:23:53] Oh! Well that would make sense. Yeah, that would make sense. [00:23:56] Andrew Waterhouse: And the, the reason for that is that during the fermentation, the yeast are converting all this sugar the alcohol, but there's an intermediate step which is acetaldehyde. [00:24:06] Craig Macmillan: Right. [00:24:07] Andrew Waterhouse: If you have SO2 floating around, as you would if you'd added a lot of it up front, it binds that acetaldehyde before it gets reduced to ethanol, to alcohol. if you start a fermentation with a high level of added SO2, then you will end up with a wine that has more bound acetaldehyde. And that could be a marker, say, of less expensive wine. [00:24:31] So it's possible that those people are, what they're experiencing is direct ingestion of acetaldehyde, which is being released into the blood and that that's causing them a problem. [00:24:45] Now, I've looked and looked, and I cannot find any data on what's called absorption of acetaldehyde from wine, or from food for that matter. I keep, I'm going to keep looking, [00:24:56] but for some reason or other, this hasn't been subject of a published study, although maybe I just haven't been competent enough to find it. [00:25:05] Craig Macmillan: I doubt that. [00:25:07] Andrew Waterhouse: Well, sometimes these are, you know, they're very specialized and they're indexed in funny ways. And, [00:25:13] You know, and the other thing was, you know, when the study came out, I had all these questions. I was talking to this one reporter and she said, well, I can drink natural wine. [00:25:24] It doesn't give me headaches. And I was like, oh boy, what's this about? [00:25:27] Craig Macmillan: Yeah. [00:25:28] Andrew Waterhouse: But thinking about that further when you make natural wine, you don't add any sulfites or at least you're not supposed to, Right. And consequently in the finished wine, the level of acetaldehyde would have to be very low or else it would smell like sherry. [00:25:41] Craig Macmillan: Right. Right. [00:25:43] Andrew Waterhouse: And yes, granted, many natural wines have funky smells, but they don't by and large smell like sherry. [00:25:49] So it's possible that natural wines have in general, Much less acid aldehyde than conventional one. you know, all these questions have brought up some interesting issues, I think, you know, the industry should be looking into you know, these are these issues like how much acid aldehyde Do we want in our wine and how can we reduce it if we want to reduce it? [00:26:15] I don't think anybody's really looking at that yet. I think that would be a very interesting question to pursue. Oh [00:26:24] Craig Macmillan: you just, you just reminded me of, of something two things that I, I had forgotten about. One I used to teach like enology for babies, enology for dummies thing for the public. I am in no way qualified other than just experience to do that. [00:26:39] But I broke it down in that I do that sugar aldehyde, alcohol arrows, and I'd say, okay, this, this acid aldehyde. Remember this one? This one's coming back. We're going to see this again later. So write this one down. We're going to get to that later. And sure enough, now it's just through the body and, and I think breathalyzers work based on that. [00:27:00] Don't they? It's like density. Something like that. So the aldehyde, they're actually, [00:27:05] I think so. I got to look that up again, but because by the time it gets to your breath, your body's, Processing it, right? Hugely important. Not just that compound, but aldehyde is just kind of a general well, maybe we should all invest in like some kind of, I don't know, AO unit or wine X ray or something at our house. [00:27:21] And then we could get the totals and know before we drink it you know, maybe we could figure out if somebody could come up with a consumer friendly, you know, put it in a vial and shake it and it turns blue. Don't drink it kind of thing. I'm just being silly. I don't know. [00:27:34] Andrew Waterhouse: idea. [00:27:35] Craig Macmillan: You go to different like wine shops and stuff, and there's all kinds of stirs and additives and strainers and funnels and stuff that are supposed to take things out. [00:27:45] And I've always really wanted to see what those things do. They do anything or not, or I don't know. I'd like to try it. Finally, is there one takeaway on this topic, this question to both you, one takeaway you'd like people to know, I [00:27:57] Andrew Waterhouse: well, I think the key thing is that we haven't done any experiments on people yet. [00:28:03] Craig Macmillan: Right. [00:28:04] Andrew Waterhouse: And so what we have here is, I would call it a well founded theory, [00:28:09] Craig Macmillan: Mhmm. [00:28:09] Andrew Waterhouse: I think people shouldn't rush out and start changing the way they drink yet. They might want to try some experiments. But we don't have the final word yet. [00:28:20] Craig Macmillan: Right, right. [00:28:24] Apramita Devi: Same. Yeah. This is just very preliminary study. And we just have a theory out. So we still don't know, like, what happens in the actual body. [00:28:34] Craig Macmillan: Well, I hope that we can do that. [00:28:36] Andrew Waterhouse: We're always looking for support for experiments. If anybody wants to support that, get in touch. [00:28:43] Craig Macmillan: You know, another creative thought that I have when I'm preparing for this is like, you know, , people either get headaches from wine or they don't. If I'm someone who wants to enjoy wine, but gets headaches, I would be really attracted to a product that had a back label if we could make health. statements, which we cannot, that would say now low in quercetin or, you know, headache free, you know, no, we would never get that through TTP, obviously, but but, but, you know, but we went round and round with that on sulfites, you know you know, organic waste, no added sulfites, you know, you can say that. [00:29:14] Andrew Waterhouse: I think it would be possible to perhaps have a declaration on a bottle about the level of quercetin, whether it's high or low. I suppose. I don't know. [00:29:24] One company did get a label through that had resveratrol levels on it, but then TTB stopped approving that. So only one company has that approval. But I think in that case the reason for denying the label is that it is a proxy for health claim. Thank you. [00:29:44] Quercetin, you know, whether it's high or low is really, it's not, it's not making a health claim. We're not claiming that this wine is healthier for you than the other has to do with headaches or not headaches. [00:29:55] And I don't see that as really a health claim. [00:29:58] Craig Macmillan: Well, let's just see how this develops. You never know. Let's face it. I mean, we're talking about nutrition. This is August of 2024, the date for this recording. We're talking about having nutritional labeling on wine. Right? Which I think would be a very interesting nutritional label, quite frankly. [00:30:13] I would, I would love to see that, you know. Zero percent of the RDA of everything, again, at the end of one of my lectures I'd introduce potassium, and at the end I'd say, so how much wine do you have to drink to get your RDA of potassium? You have to drink a gallon and a half of wine a day. So, maybe not a big contributor. Maybe not a big contributor. Where can people find out more about both of you? [00:30:37] Andrew Waterhouse: Well, I think probably the best starting point would be our LinkedIn pages. [00:30:43] Craig Macmillan: And those will be in the show notes. [00:30:45] Andrew Waterhouse: and I do have a website at UC Davis called waterhouse. ucdavis. edu. [00:30:52] Craig Macmillan: And that will be in there as well. What about you, Apremita? [00:30:54] Apramita Devi: For me, LinkedIn page. [00:30:58] And if people want to see about my research or my past research, they can go to my Google Scholar page to [00:31:05] Craig Macmillan: Awesome. Thank you. Well, thanks so much for being here. Our guests today were Andrew Waterhouse, Professor Emeritus in the Department of Viticulture and Enology at UC Davis, and Apramita Devi, a postdoctoral researcher in viticulture and knowledge at UC Davis. Really interesting work. [00:31:21] I'm glad that you folks are doing it. I've been a big fan of you, Dr. Waterhouse, for a long time, and now that I've seen your work, I'm a big fan of you. Apremita. You've done some pretty cool stuff in the last five years. So again, thanks. And thank you for listening to Sustainable Wine Growing with Vineyard team. [00:31:38] Please keep downloading episodes. Please visit the show page. Lots of information there. And we also have a new publication, Understanding Wine Chemistry by Andrew Waterhouse, Gavin Sachs, and David Jeffrey. Is that correct? [00:31:53] Andrew Waterhouse: That's correct. [00:31:55] Craig Macmillan: This is out in the world now. [00:31:57] Andrew Waterhouse: It's just out this month. [00:31:59] Craig Macmillan: That sounds like a must have. [00:32:01] Andrew Waterhouse: I agree. [00:32:03] Craig Macmillan: That sounds like a must have. , I will leave the name out, but there was a very famous book written by a group of folks from CSU Fresno and some collaborators. And I don't have a copy because I bought five copies in my cellar. People stole them every single time. So, this is the same kind of book, folks. [00:32:20] Maybe buy five copies. And just hand them out to give one to your assistant winemaker. Give one to your cellar master and just say, here, these are yours. I'm keeping my copy. Thank you very much. That's, that's really cool. And again, thanks for being on the podcast. [00:32:33] Beth Vukmanic: Thank you for listening today's podcast was brought to you by wonderful laboratories. Wonderful laboratories operates two state of the art high throughput laboratories. He's located in Shaffer, California to support pathogen detection and nutrient analysis. The team provides full service support to customers with field sampling. Custom panels and special projects. They're. Customers include pest control advisors, growers, consultants, seed. Companies, backyard gardeners, ranchers, and more. [00:33:10] Make sure you check out the show notes. To learn more about. Andrew. And Oprah meta. To read a great article about their research. Why do some people get headaches from drinking red wine? [00:33:19] And if you're looking. Looking for. Some more fun wine at trivia to share at holiday parties this season. Listen into sustainable Winegrowing podcast episode. 74, the spirit of wine. [00:33:31] If you liked the show, do. It's a big favor by sharing it with a friend subscribing and leaving us a review. You can find all of the podcasts@vineyardteam.org slash podcast. Podcast. And you can reach us at podcast@vineyardteam.org until next time, this is sustainable. Winegrowing with the vineyard team. [00:33:49]   Nearly perfect transcription by Descript

In this episode of One in Ten, Teresa Huizar interviews Dr. Melanie Nadon from the University of Illinois, Urbana Champaign, about the intricacies of mandatory reporting in child abuse cases. The discussion delves into the disparities in report substantiations by educators compared to other professionals, the influence of socio-political shifts on welfare referrals, and the challenges of over-reporting. The conversation highlights findings from Dr. Nadon's recent study, shedding light on the complex interplay between poverty, race, and the child welfare system. The episode emphasizes the need for refined mandatory reporting training and better public policy solutions to support families effectively.Time Stamps:00:00 Introduction and Episode Overview00:18 Guest Introduction: Dr. Melanie Nadon00:48 The Disparity in Child Abuse Reporting01:38 Motivations Behind the Study01:56 Impact of the Pandemic on Welfare Referrals03:27 Understanding Mandatory Reporting05:48 Educators and Mandatory Reporting10:14 Hypotheses and Surprising Findings13:56 Role of Medical and Legal Professionals16:16 Implications of Prior Maltreatment22:26 Poverty and Child Welfare37:53 State vs. County Administered Systems44:58 Conclusion and Final ThoughtsSupport the showDid you like this episode? Please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts.

Steve and Captain Evil tackle gifts, midlife crisis', and the dreaded D-I-V-O-R-C-E!

Drs. Cesar Arias (@SuperBugDoc) and Katie Barber join Dr. Julie Ann Justo (@julie_justo) to discuss what is hot-off-the-presses for gram-positive bacterial infections and it's a total party vibe! They review the latest news for recent and ongoing clinical trials (DOTS, DISRUPT, and SNAP trials), discuss hope for novel clinical tests of the cefazolin inoculum effect in staphylococci, and explore the fascinating changes in virulence and potential therapeutic options for the most challenging enterococci. Learn more about the Society of Infectious Diseases Pharmacists: https://sidp.org/About X: @SIDPharm (https://twitter.com/SIDPharm) Instagram: @SIDPharm (https://www.instagram.com/sidpharm/) Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/sidprx LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/sidp References Climate Change and Antimicrobial Resistance. Editors in Conversation Podcast. American Society for Microbiology. Oct 2023. Is More Better? The Role of Combination Therapy for MRSA. Breakpoints Podcast Episode #30. Society of Infectious Diseases Pharmacists. Turner NA, et al. DOTS: Dalbavancin as an Option for Treatment of Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia. ESCMID Global 2024. April 2024. NCT04775953. Real-world dalbavancin observational cohort: Rebold N, et al. Infect Dis Ther. 2024 Mar;13(3):565-579. doi: 10.1007/s40121-024-00933-2. PMID: 38427289. Exebacase DISRUPT trial : Fowler VG Jr, et al. Clin Infect Dis. 2024 Jun 14;78(6):1473-1481. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciae043. PMID: 38297916. @snap_trial tweet of Breaking News. Aug 2024. Investigator Resources for the SNAP trial. Sept 2024: https://www.snaptrial.com.au/for-investigators#interim Cefazolin inoculum effect on mortality in MSSA bacteremia : Miller WR, et al. Open Forum Infect Dis. 2018 May 23;5(6):ofy123. doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofy123. PMID: 29977970. Prevalence of cefazolin inoculum effect in MSSA and modified rapid nitrocefin test for detection: Carvajal LP, et al. Antimicrob Agents Chemother. 2024 Sep 30:e0089824. doi: 10.1128/aac.00898-24. PMID: 39345182. LiaX as surrogate for cell envelope stress in Enterococus faecium: Axell-House DB, et al. Antimicrob Agents Chemother. 2024 Mar 6;68(3):e0106923. doi: 10.1128/aac.01069-23. PMID: 38289081. Shorter is better for uncomplicated streptococcal bacteremia: Clutter DS, et al. Antimicrob Agents Chemother. 2024 Aug 7;68(8):e0022024. doi: 10.1128/aac.00220-24. PMID: 38975753. Short vs. long antibiotic duration in Streptococcus pneumoniae bacteremia: Crotty M, et al. Open Forum Infect Dis. 2024 Aug 30;11(9):ofae478. doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofae478. PMID: 39257675. This podcast is powered by Pinecast.

Get 10 FREE meals at https://hellofresh.com/freenotforeveryone. __Who has two thumbs, hosts a podcast, and is ready to put their own advice to use? Jess and Caroline! C takes us through two boundaries she set this past week and how she felt doing it, and J discusses the ups and downs of moving in with her partner. Hypotheses are nothing without experiments!Plus, the pair ruminate on decorating with a partner and the language of design, before diving into thoughts on an upcoming group therapy session for C. And don't miss their brief discussion on haunted forests and Medieval Times…lots of big kahunas in this episode.P.S. Listen to Amanda Montell's Magical Overthinkers podcast, wherever you get yours!__This episode was produced by our prince, Abi Newhouse. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠__Share with a friend!Follow, rate, and review on your favorite podcasting app!Subscribe on YOUTUBE for full episode video: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@Not4EveryonePod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Plus follow us on INSTAGRAM for more:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@not4everyonepod⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@thegoodsitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@jzdebakey⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠And don't forget about our MERCH store: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://not4everyonepod.myshopify.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠__Intro Music: “Doja Dance” by PALA__DISCLAIMER: All opinions are our own. We are not therapists or health professionals, or professional of any kind, really. Please see your own professional or counselor for professional support. Do your research and be safe! --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/not4everyonepod/support

Welcome back to the Misfit Behaviorist Podcast!

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"It's very hard to find examples where people say, 'I'm starting from this point. I'm starting from this belief.' So we wanted to make that very legible to people. We wanted to say, 'Experts think this; accurate forecasters think this.' They might both be wrong, but we can at least start from here and figure out where we're coming into a discussion and say, 'I am much less concerned than the people in this report; or I am much more concerned, and I think people in this report were missing major things.' But if you don't have a reference set of probabilities, I think it becomes much harder to talk about disagreement in policy debates in a space that's so complicated like this." —Ezra KargerIn today's episode, host Luisa Rodriguez speaks to Ezra Karger — research director at the Forecasting Research Institute — about FRI's recent Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament to come up with estimates of a range of catastrophic risks.Links to learn more, highlights, and full transcript.They cover:How forecasting can improve our understanding of long-term catastrophic risks from things like AI, nuclear war, pandemics, and climate change.What the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT) is, how it was set up, and the results.The challenges of predicting low-probability, high-impact events.Why superforecasters' estimates of catastrophic risks seem so much lower than experts', and which group Ezra puts the most weight on.The specific underlying disagreements that superforecasters and experts had about how likely catastrophic risks from AI are.Why Ezra thinks forecasting tournaments can help build consensus on complex topics, and what he wants to do differently in future tournaments and studies.Recent advances in the science of forecasting and the areas Ezra is most excited about exploring next.Whether large language models could help or outperform human forecasters.How people can improve their calibration and start making better forecasts personally.Why Ezra thinks high-quality forecasts are relevant to policymakers, and whether they can really improve decision-making.And plenty more.Chapters:Cold open (00:00:00)Luisa's intro (00:01:07)The interview begins (00:02:54)The Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (00:05:13)Why is this project important? (00:12:34)How was the tournament set up? (00:17:54)Results from the tournament (00:22:38)Risk from artificial intelligence (00:30:59)How to think about these numbers (00:46:50)Should we trust experts or superforecasters more? (00:49:16)The effect of debate and persuasion (01:02:10)Forecasts from the general public (01:08:33)How can we improve people's forecasts? (01:18:59)Incentives and recruitment (01:26:30)Criticisms of the tournament (01:33:51)AI adversarial collaboration (01:46:20)Hypotheses about stark differences in views of AI risk (01:51:41)Cruxes and different worldviews (02:17:15)Ezra's experience as a superforecaster (02:28:57)Forecasting as a research field (02:31:00)Can large language models help or outperform human forecasters? (02:35:01)Is forecasting valuable in the real world? (02:39:11)Ezra's book recommendations (02:45:29)Luisa's outro (02:47:54)Producer: Keiran HarrisAudio engineering: Dominic Armstrong, Ben Cordell, Milo McGuire, and Simon MonsourContent editing: Luisa Rodriguez, Katy Moore, and Keiran HarrisTranscriptions: Katy Moore

Diana and Nicole discuss BanyanDNA, a tool for analyzing complex family relationships in genetic genealogy. Leah Larkin introduced BanyanDNA in December 2023, highlighting its unique ability to identify unknown ancestors and alert users to discrepancies in family trees. Diana shares her experience with her own family tree, where her great-grandparents' siblings married each other, creating double cousins. She builds a tree using BanyanDNA, adding DNA matches from various test-takers, and finds the horizontal tree orientation helpful for visualizing relationships. They explain that BanyanDNA allows adding DNA matches from any testing company and evaluates shared DNA to highlight discrepancies in documented relationships. The tool runs statistical simulations to compare expected DNA inheritance with actual data, providing insights into the accuracy of the family tree structure. They discuss recent updates to BanyanDNA, including new calculation modes: VALIDATION and HYPOTHESES. Validation runs check if DNA matches support the documented tree, while hypotheses runs focus on the person of interest with potential unknown ancestors. These updates improve the speed and accuracy of BanyanDNA results. Links Evaluating Double Cousin Relationships with Banyan DNA - https://familylocket.com/evaluating-double-cousin-relationships-with-banyan-dna/ BanyanDNA 1.4 Release notes - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_XQNEFgtjiE9B5n7lf6Pq4bdJaIMfujUFEdk0dnfsyY/edit Sponsor – Newspapers.com For listeners of this podcast, Newspapers.com is offering new subscribers 20% off a Publisher Extra subscription so you can start exploring today. Just use the code “FamilyLocket” at checkout.  Research Like a Pro Resources Airtable Universe - Nicole's Airtable Templates - https://www.airtable.com/universe/creator/usrsBSDhwHyLNnP4O/nicole-dyer Airtable Research Logs Quick Reference - by Nicole Dyer - https://familylocket.com/product-tag/airtable/ Research Like a Pro: A Genealogist's Guide book by Diana Elder with Nicole Dyer on Amazon.com - https://amzn.to/2x0ku3d 14-Day Research Like a Pro Challenge Workbook - digital - https://familylocket.com/product/14-day-research-like-a-pro-challenge-workbook-digital-only/ and spiral bound - https://familylocket.com/product/14-day-research-like-a-pro-challenge-workbook-spiral-bound/ Research Like a Pro Webinar Series 2024 - monthly case study webinars including documentary evidence and many with DNA evidence - https://familylocket.com/product/research-like-a-pro-webinar-series-2024/ Research Like a Pro eCourse - independent study course -  https://familylocket.com/product/research-like-a-pro-e-course/ RLP Study Group - upcoming group and email notification list - https://familylocket.com/services/research-like-a-pro-study-group/ Research Like a Pro with DNA Resources Research Like a Pro with DNA: A Genealogist's Guide to Finding and Confirming Ancestors with DNA Evidence book by Diana Elder, Nicole Dyer, and Robin Wirthlin - https://amzn.to/3gn0hKx Research Like a Pro with DNA eCourse - independent study course -  https://familylocket.com/product/research-like-a-pro-with-dna-ecourse/ RLP with DNA Study Group - upcoming group and email notification list - https://familylocket.com/services/research-like-a-pro-with-dna-study-group/ Thank you Thanks for listening! We hope that you will share your thoughts about our podcast and help us out by doing the following: Write a review on iTunes or Apple Podcasts. If you leave a review, we will read it on the podcast and answer any questions that you bring up in your review. Thank you! Leave a comment in the comment or question in the comment section below. Share the episode on Twitter, Facebook, or Pinterest.

14th-century English philosopher and theologian William of Ockham's famous philosophical razor advocates that when presented with competing hypotheses about the same prediction and both theories have equal explanatory power one should prefer the hypothesis that requires the fewest assumptions. But what hypothesis would Big Bad Bill have about why Kevin is so crap at our Ultimate Catalogue Clash side games? Hypotheses a) Kev's throwing the game because he likes being the underdog, unlikely, he's a competitive little toad and we'd have to assume he actually knows the answers, b) Corey is cheating, also unlikely as Corey is far too principled and decent a man to do that, and Kev can see him on the other side of the screen… c) Corey just has a better mind for working these things out. As we can see from these three scenarios, Occam's razor definitely guides us to the logical conclusion that Corey is cheating. Will Corey find more variety and something to love on the second acoustic side and will Kevin close the gap in The Best Of You after trouncing Corey last week?The only way to find out is to turn on, tune in, and high dive into your brain.Songs covered in this episode: "Over and Out", "On the Mend", "Virginia Moon", "Cold Day in the Sun", "Razor"Don't forget to follow us on social media and leave us a rating/review if you're enjoying the show!Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/UltimateCatalogueClashTwitter: https://twitter.com/UCatalogueClashBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/ucatalogueclash.bsky.social Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Analysing Adversarial Attacks with Linear Probing, published by Yoann Poupart on June 17, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. This work was produced as part of the Apart Fellowship. @Yoann Poupart and @Imene Kerboua led the project; @Clement Neo and @Jason Hoelscher-Obermaier provided mentorship, feedback and project guidance. Here, we present a qualitative analysis of our preliminary results. We are at the very beginning of our experiments, so any setup change, experiment advice, or idea is welcomed. We also welcome any relevant paper that we could have missed. For a better introduction to interpreting adversarial attacks, we recommend reading scasper's post: EIS IX: Interpretability and Adversaries. Code available on GitHub (still drafty). TL;DR Basic adversarial attacks produce humanly indistinguishable examples for the human eye. In order to explore the features vs bugs view of adversarial attacks, we trained linear probes on a classifier's activations (we used CLIP-based models for further multimodal work). The goal is that training linear probes to detect basic concepts can help analyse and detect adversarial attacks. As the concepts studied are simple (e.g. color), they can be probed from every layer of the model. We show that concept probes are indeed modified by the adversarial attack, but only on the later layers. Hence, we can naively detect adversarial attacks by observing the disagreement between early layers' probes and later layers' probes. Introduction Motivation Adversarial samples are a concerning failure mode of deep learning models. It has been shown that by optimising an input, e.g. an image, the output of the targeted model can be shifted at the attacker's will. This failure mode appears repeatedly in different domains like image classification, text encoders, and more recently on multimodal models enabling arbitrary outputs or jailbreaking. Hypotheses to Test This work was partly inspired by the feature vs bug world hypothesis. In our particular context this would imply that adversarial attacks might be caused by meaningful feature directions being activated (feature world) or by high-frequency directions overfitted by the model (bug world). The hypotheses we would like to test are thus the following: The adversariality doesn't change the features. Nakkiran et al. found truly adversarial samples that are "bugs", while Ilyas et al. seem to indicate that adversarial attacks find features. The different optimisation schemes don't produce the same categories of adversarial samples (features vs bugs). Some might be more robust, e.g. w.r.t. the representation induced. Post Navigation First, we briefly present the background we used for adversarial attacks and linear probing. Then we showcase experiments, presenting our setup, to understand the impact of adversarial attacks on linear probes and see if we can detect it naively. Finally, we present the limitations and perspectives of our work before concluding. Background Adversarial Attacks For our experiment, we'll begin with the most basic and well-known adversarial attack, the Fast Gradient Sign Method (FGSM). This intuitive method takes advantage of the classifier differentiability to optimise the adversary goal (misclassification) using a gradient descent. It can be described as: With x,y the original image and label, ^x the adversarial example and ϵ the perturbation amplitude. This simple method can be derived in an iterative form: and seen as projected gradient descent, with the projection ensuring that ||xxn+1||ϵ. In our experiments ϵ=3. Linear Probing Linear probing is a simple idea where you train a linear model (probe) to predict a concept from the internals of the interpreted target model. The prediction performances are then attributed to the knowledge contained in the target model's latent re...

Join me in this episode as we explore the debate between science and religion, focusing on how science intersects with Christianity through examples like climate change and the COVID vaccine. We aim to present factual information without delving into controversy, urging listeners to consider empirical evidence objectively.We discuss discrepancies in past climate change predictions and current realities, as well as challenges surrounding the COVID vaccine, emphasizing the importance of empirical truth over hypotheses. By highlighting the process of testing hypotheses in science and adapting theories based on new data, we underscore the critical interaction between science and empirical reality.Our goal is to prompt critical thinking on how empirical evidence shapes our worldview, encouraging reflection on the evolving landscape of scientific inquiry and the pursuit of verifiable truths amidst the convergence of facts and hypotheses.Join the PREMIUM philosophy community on the web for free!Get my new series on the Truth About the French Revolution, the Truth About Sadism, access to the audiobook for my new book 'Peaceful Parenting,' StefBOT-AI, private livestreams, premium call in shows, the 22 Part History of Philosophers series and more!See you soon!https://freedomain.locals.com/support/promo/UPB2022

Defenders: Doctrine of Christ (Part 44): The Work of Christ (37) - Resurrection Hypotheses

Defenders: Doctrine of Christ (Part 43): The Work of Christ (36) - Resurrection Hypotheses

Defenders: Doctrine of Christ (Part 42): The Work of Christ (35) - Resurrection Hypotheses

After employing the scientific method last year to make hypotheses on Nintendo's 2023, Patrick and Mark are back in their lab coats to review their results and see if the year unfolded as they predicted. SUPPORT US ON PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/nintendocartridgesociety FRIEND US ON SWITCH Patrick: SW-1401-2882-4137 Mark: SW-8112-0583-0050

Reading graphs is a perennial problem for many candidates. Yet, the problem is not the interpretation of the graphical data itself. Rather, it is knowing what to do with that data once you have interpreted it. This podcast introduces a simple 4-step process we introduced for a Yale doctoral client, Felix, and a technique called the One-Sentence-Test which we again developed for the same client. The improvement in her answers warrants sharing this technique. You can see Felix's Improvement in Season One of The Consulting Offer. Here are some free gifts for you: Overall Approach Used in Well-Managed Strategy Studies free download: www.firmsconsulting.com/OverallApproach McKinsey & BCG winning resume free download: www.firmsconsulting.com/resumepdf Enjoying this episode? Get access to sample advanced training episodes here: www.firmsconsulting.com/promo

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Bayesian updating in real life is mostly about understanding your hypotheses, published by Max H on January 1, 2024 on LessWrong. My sense is that an increasingly common viewpoint around here is that the last ~20 years of AI development and AI x-risk discourse are well-described by the following narrative: Eliezer Yudkowsky (and various others who were at least initially heavily influenced by his ideas) developed detailed models of key issues likely to be inherent in the process of developing smarter-than-human AI. These models were somewhere between "maybe plausible" and "quite compelling" at the time that they were put forth, but recent developments in AI (e.g. behavioral characteristics of language models, smoothness / gradualness of scaling) have shown that reality just isn't panning out in quite the way Eliezer's models predicted. These developments haven't entirely falsified Eliezer's models and key predictions, but there are now plenty of alternative models and theories. Some or all of these competing models either are or claim to: have a better recent track record of predicting near-term AI developments better retrodict past developments[1] be backed by empirical results in machine learning and / or neuroscience feel more intuitively plausible and evidence-backed to people with different backgrounds and areas of expertise Therefore, even if we can't entirely discount Eliezer's models, there's clearly a directional Bayesian update which any good Bayesian (including Eliezer himself) should be able to make by observing recent developments and considering alternate theories which they support. Even if the precise degree of the overall update (and the final landing place of the posterior) remains highly uncertain and debatable, the basic direction is clear. Without getting into the object-level too much, or even whether the narrative as a whole reflects the actual views of particular real people, I want to make some remarks on the concept of belief updating as typically used in narratives like this. Note, there's a sense in which any (valid) change in one's beliefs can be modeled as a Bayesian update of some kind, but here I am specifically referring to the popular rationalist practice of thinking and communicating explicitly in terms of the language of probabilities and likelihood ratios. There are some questionable assumptions embedded in (what I suspect are) common views of (a) how the updating process is supposed to work in general and (b) how to apply the process validly to the particular case of updating one's models of AI development and x-risk. When such views are expressed implicitly in the context of a sentiment that "updating" is broadly virtuous / desirable / correct, I find that there tends to be a lot of gloss over important caveats and prerequisites that keep the underlying mental motion tethered to reality - that is, ensure it remains a systematic (if rough and approximate) method for valid reasoning under uncertainty. The rest of this post is a review of some of the key concepts and requirements for Bayesian updating to work as intended, with some examples and non-examples of how these requirements can fail to be met in practice. My conclusion is not that the practice of explicit Bayesian updating is inherently flawed, but that it must be applied with attention to the preconditions and assumptions firmly in mind at all times. Local validity at each step must be tracked strictly and adhered to closely enough to ensure that the process as a whole actually holds together as a method for systematically minimizing expected predictive error. Further, I think that most of the utility of explicit reasoning and communication in Bayesian terms derives not from the end result (whether that end result is a precise numerical posterior probability or just a rou...

The first hour of the K&C Masterpiece with Reg Adetula and Mike Bacsik!

For this episode, let's revisit a Case Interview & Management Consulting classic, building of our technique to develop hypotheses, this podcast explains a clever way to generate creative hypotheses. In essence, the podcast will be useful to candidates who have already seen how we brainstorm and generate hypotheses, since this podcast expands on that thinking. The core of this idea is that if more than one structure can be brainstormed for a case, each of those structures can be used to develop a new type of hypothesis. This is a very, very simple technique as well. Here are some free gifts for you: Overall Approach Used in Well-Managed Strategy Studies free download: www.firmsconsulting.com/OverallApproach McKinsey & BCG winning resume free download: www.firmsconsulting.com/resumepdf Enjoying this episode? Get access to sample advanced training episodes here: www.firmsconsulting.com/promo

YES, THIS IS A SASQUATCH RESEARCH SHOW!!! IN THIS 7TH EPISODE ON MY CHANNEL, WE WILL BEGIN TO EXPLORE A SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF INFRASOUND (AFTER 6 EPISODES ON FIGHT/FLIGHT!).In this, the 7th Episode of this Series, with the kind permission of Sasquatch Investigator Extraordinaire Thom Powell, I'll share his personal Infrasound Story originally presented at the 2013 Ohio Bigfoot Conference! We will then begin a Brief Review of the Scientific Literature on Infrasound in Terrestrial Creatures. This May Inform the HYPOTHESES of Infrasound Effects on Humans by Sasquatch (commonly called "Zapping" in Bigfoot Circles). This will also serve as the Foundation for Episode 8, in which I will review a Laboratory Experiment on the Impact of Bigfoot Infrasound in Humans that I proposed in my book "Psychological Horizons In Scientific Bigfoot Research" aka as "Grasping Sasquatch" (soon to be published by Hanger 1 Publishing Company). I HOPE TO SEE YOU THERE!!This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/4602609/advertisement

Co-hosts Aubrey Paris and Emily Black put their doctorates to work assessing the validity of science and technology presented in National Treasure: Edge of History. Plus, "National Treasure Lab" returns to test Edge of History's most memorable S&T tricks. Join the hunt on Twitter and Instagram using @NTHuntPodcast, and find new episodes of National Treasure Hunt every-other Wednesday on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen. More information about the National Treasure Hunt podcast, tour, and book can be found at www.nthuntpodcast.com. Order our book, "National Treasure Hunt: One Step Short of Crazy," from Tucker DS Press here: https://www.tuckerdspress.com/product-page/national-treasure-hunt-one-step-short-of-crazy To access even more exclusive National Treasure Hunt content, subscribe to our Patreon: www.patreon.com/NTHuntPodcast

Most of the time, we think of analytics as taking historical data for a business, munging it in various ways, and then using the results of that munging to make decisions. But, what if the business has no (or very little) historical data… because it's a startup? That's the situation venture capitalists — especially those focused on early stage startups — face constantly. We were curious as to how and where data and analytics play a role in such a world, and Sam Wong, a partner at Blackbird Ventures, joined Michael, Val, and Tim to explore the subject. Hypotheses and KPIs came up a lot, so our hypothesis that there was a relevant tie-in to the traditional focus of this show was validated, and, as a result, the valuation of the podcast itself tripled and we are accepting term sheets. For complete show notes, including links to items mentioned in this episode and a transcript of the show, visit the show page.

In this episode, Nathan sits down with three researchers at Carnegie Mellon studying adversarial attacks and mimetic initialization: Zico Kolter, Andy Zou, and Asher Trockman. They discuss: the motivation behind researching universal adversarial attacks on language models, how the attacks work, and the short term harms and long term risks of these jailbreaks. If you're looking for an ERP platform, check out our sponsor, NetSuite: http://netsuite.com/cognitive TIMESTAMPS: [00:00:00] - Introducing the podcast and guests Zico Kolter, Andy Zou, and Asher Trockman [00:06:32] - Discussing the motivation and high-level strategy for the universal adversarial attack on language models [00:09:33] - Explaining how the attacks work by adding nonsense tokens to maximize target sequence probability [00:11:06] - Comparing to prior adversarial attacks in vision models [00:13:47] - Details on the attack optimization process and discrete token search [00:17:09] - The empirical notion of "mode switching" in the language models [00:21:18] - Technical details on gradient computation across multiple models and prompts [00:23:46] - Operating in one-hot vector space rather than continuous embeddings [00:25:50] - Evaluating candidate substitutions across all positions to find the best update [00:28:05] - Running the attack optimization for hundreds of steps across multiple GPUs [00:39:14] - The difficulty of understanding the loss landscape and internal model workings [00:43:55] - The flexibility afforded by separating the loss and optimization approach [00:48:16] - The challenges of creating inherently robust models via adversarial training [00:52:34] - Potential approaches to defense through filtering or inherent model robustness [00:55:51] - Transferability results to commercial models like GPT-4 and Claude [00:59:25] - Hypotheses on why the attacks transfer across different model architectures [01:04:36] - The mix of human-interpretable and nonsense features in effective attacks [01:08:29] - The appearance of intuitive manual jailbreak triggers in some attacks [01:15:33] - Short-term harms of attacks vs long-term risks [01:18:37] - Influencing those with incomplete understanding of LLMs to appreciate differences from human reasoning [01:24:16] - Mitigating risks by training on filtered datasets vs broad web data [01:2916] - Curriculum learning as a strategy for both capability and safety [01:30:35] - Influencing developers building autonomous systems with LLMs [01:33:19] - Alienness of LLM failure modes compared to human reasoning [01:35:45] - Getting inspiration from biological visual system structure [01:40:35] - Initialization as an alternative to pretraining for small datasets [01:51:41] - Encoding useful structures like grammars in initialization without training [02:12:10] - Most ideas don't progress to research projects [02:13:02] - Pursuing ideas based on interest and feasibility [02:15:14] - Fun of exploring uncharted territory in ML research LINKS: Adversarial Attacks Paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.15043 Mimetic Initialization on Self-Attention Layers: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2305.09828.pdf X/Social: @zicokolter (Zico Kolter) @andyzou_jiaming (Andy Zou) @ashertrockman (Asher Trockman) @CogRev_podcast SPONSORS: NetSuite | Omneky NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform ✅ head to NetSuite: http://netsuite.com/cognitive and download your own customized KPI checklist. Omneky is an omnichannel creative generation platform that lets you launch hundreds of thousands of ad iterations that actually work customized across all platforms, with a click of a button. Omneky combines generative AI and real-time advertising data. Mention "Cog Rev" for 10% off. Music Credit: Stableaudio.com

Today's topic is an interesting one that comes up a lot in the yoga world. In this episode, hosts Tiffany and Katja talk about the latest research and newest findings on the Polyvagal Theory. They discuss the evolutionary biology that Polyvagal Theory is based around, the neuroanatomy that's involved, and assumptions that have been made about this complex aspect of the body. Listen in to learn about the anatomy of the vagus nerve and how Polyvagal Theory is applied in yoga and therapeutic settings. Show Notes: The emergence of Polyvagal Theory [2:58] Evolutionary biology and dorsal vagus [5:50] Sympathetic nervous system [10:35] Ventral vagus [13:40] Nuances of ventral and dorsal vagus, combinations [15:03] Anatomy of the vagus nerve [17:38] Afferent parts of the vagus nerve (from body to brain) [21:24] Efferent components of vagus (from brain to body) [26:50] How researchers look at cardiac function and Polyvagal Theory [33:01] The role of Polyvagal Theory in yoga and therapeutic settings [37:29] Hypotheses about ventral vagus evolution [43:33] Links Mentioned: Watch this episode on YouTube Polyvagal Resources Doc Connect with Katja Bartsch: Facebook | Instagram | Kalamana Yoga | Yoga Medicine® Online Guest Teacher You can learn more about this episode, and see the full show notes at YogaMedicine.com/podcast-83. And you can find out more about insider tips, online classes or information on our teacher trainings at YogaMedicine.com. To support our work, please leave us a 5 star review with your feedback on iTunes/Apple Podcasts.

Goal setting can help with classroom management and academic performance. It allows students to become more aware of expectations and concrete methods to achieve an outcome.  How might students forming hypotheses increase the success of their goal setting practices? Students sharing their hypotheses and their reflections can lead to learning from each other's experiences and  empowerment from having skills in planning for desired outcomes. Read Stephanie Toro's article, "Guiding Students to Set Academic Goals" here. Watch Reggie Rivers Ted Talk, "If you want to achieve your goals, don't focus on them" here.  Read Jeanne Ross' article, "Why Hypotheses Beat Goals" here. Subscribe to the Steve Barkley Ponders Out Loud podcast on iTunes or visit BarkleyPD.com to find new episodes!

This episode of Conversations for Health features Designs for Health, Inc. and Diagnostic Solutions Laboratory, LLC Chief Medical Officer, Dr. David Brady.  With over 30 years of experience as an integrative practitioner and over 25 years in health sciences academia, Dr. Brady is a licensed naturopathic medical physician & clinical nutritionist, and professor and director emeritus of The Nutrition Institute at the University of Bridgeport.   In our conversation, Dr. Brady explores the rise and implications of long haul syndrome, or PASC, including popular correlation hypotheses, associations and patterns and insights from recent studies.  He details the challenges of major gaps in long haul syndrome clinical care, patient stories, and developing nutraceutical and traditional treatment options that have proven effective, as well as his own case-by-case approach to helping patients manage long haul syndrome effectively as answers continue to be uncovered by researchers and medical professionals.    I'm your host Evelyne Lambrecht, thank you for designing a well world with us.    Key Takeaways:   [1:36] Dr. Brady highlights the defining symptoms of long haul syndrome.  [4:25] The prevalence of long haul syndrome in the U.S., according to a Brooking Institute study. [5:18] Changes in our understanding of long haul syndrome from 2020 to the present.  [8:10] Addressing the major gaps in clinical care regarding long haul syndrome.  [10:33] Hypotheses regarding pathogenesis, mechanisms, and other fundamental long haul syndrome questions.  [13:02] The association between long haul syndrome, immunological cytokine patterns and other metabolomic signatures.  [19:24] Dr. Brady shares the resolution patterns and inconsistencies he has seen in panels.  [21:58] Possible correlations between genetic SNPs and the propensity toward developing long haul syndrome.  [24:43] Insights into the potential correlation between mitochondrial dysfunction and long haul syndrome.  [28:28] Findings from Harvard and Yale long haul molecular and metabolic function studies.  [30:49] Dr. Brady's recommendations for addressing the vasculature aspect of long haul syndrome.  [33:06] Information gained from the microbiota patterns in long haulers.  [35:55] Dr. Brady details the journey of his wife from healthy, fit dancer to long hauler.  [40:30] Evidence based drugs and nutraceuticals that are being used to manage long haul syndrome.  [52:26] Dr. Brady's approach to managing long haul symptoms on a case-by-case basis.  [54:51] Nutraceutical recommendations for approaching long haul syndrome and POTS.  [56:35] Dr. Brady shares his top three favorite supplements, his personal health practices, and what he has changed his mind about in recent years.   Episode Resources:   Dr. David Brady   Presentation: (IHS) Long Covid | Exploring the Latest Science and Pathways Forward   Design for Health Resources:   Designs for Health    Presentation: (CASI 22) Bruce Patterson – Diagnosis, Treatment, and Immunopathogenesis of Chronic Inflammation, including COVID-19 Long-haul syndrome   Presentation: (CASI 22) David Brady – Clinical Round | COVID-19 Long Haul Syndrome   Blog: Specialized Pro-resolving Mediators Novel Mechanisms for Supporting a Healthy Inflammatory Response   Blog: Combination of Geranylgeraniol + Ubiquinol to Support Mitochondrial Function   Blog: Fueling Mitochondria for Illness Recovery   Blog: L-Carnitine for Energy Production and Beyond   Blog: Rhamnan Sulfate to Support the Endothelial Glycocalyx   Blog: How Polyphenols Promote a Healthy Gut Microbiome   Visit the Designs for Health Research and Education Library which houses medical journals, protocols, webinars and our blog.   

Child sexual abuse is never a child's fault. Absolutely never. And it's unrealistic to expect children to somehow fend off the predations of adult offenders. But do jurors believe that? Dr. Jonathan Golding, professor of psychology at the University of Kentucky, asked: What do potential jurors believe about children and resisting abuse? How do these beliefs shape their understanding of who is responsible for that abuse? And how does this influence the outcome at trial? The results of his study are concerning and have implications not only for juror education but also education of the general public at large.Topics in this episode:Origin story (1:31)CSI effect and other extralegal factors (3:18)Hypotheses (9:44)Research results (12:02)Not their fault (15:48)College students and community members (18:09)A lack of progress on this issue (21:41)Implications for juror education (32:36)What's next in research (42:53)For more information (46:54)Links:Jonathan Golding, Ph.D., is a professor of developmental, social, and health psychology at the University of Kentucky College of Arts and Sciences“Impacts of Victim Resistance and Type of Assault on Legal Decision-Making in Child Sexual Assault,” Kyle P. Rawn, Mary M. Levi, Andrea M. Pals, Holly Huber, Jonathan M. Golding, Journal of Child Sexual Abuse, DOI: 10.1080/10538712.2023.2180468Gail S. Goodman, Ph.D., director of the Center for Public Policy Research at the University of California, Davis, previously appeared on One in Ten to discuss “How Accurate Is Memory After 20 Years?”Elizabeth Loftus, Ph.D.Kyle P. RawnSteven Ceci, Ph.D.For more information about National Children's Alliance and the work of Children's Advocacy Centers, visit our website at NationalChildrensAlliance.org. Or visit our podcast website at OneInTenPodcast.org. And join us on Facebook at One in Ten podcast.Support the showDid you like this episode? Please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts.

Then let the story really begin in 1968, though it has little to do with May. By chance it opens in January of that year, and it really concerns me rather than the world of political events, though these are always on my mind, as they were always on my mind. Future Imperfect: The Past Between My Fingers... (2021), Adrian Rifkin's short Bildungsroman sets beside each other the fault lines of events and moments recalled without a diary with the verification and sometimes undermining effects of new research of materials, the recovery of what was known, what might have been known, and what was merely probable, as if this were a history of the history of art. Adrian Rifkin speaks to Pierre d'Alancaisez about the uses of radical pedagogy, dreams, art history, and the economy of memory. Wagner and the Teletubbies also feature. Adrain's performance Hypotheses and Loving Contradictions at Haus der Kunst, 2017 The White Pube 

SPECIAL GUEST: DINESH D'SOUZA In this episode, I'm sounding the alarm on the influx of migrants expected to pour across the Texas-US border in the coming days as Title 42 expires. Plus, the NY Times believes it found the 'smoking gun' text message from Tucker Carlson that supposedly got him fired. The text shouldn't have surprised Tucker. Might the bigger issue for Fox News have been fear of regulation from Democrats? And, the Federal Reserve raised rates to the highest level in 16 years but, it's still not enough to fix inflation. Joining me today is conservative thought leader, Dinesh D'Souza. Dinesh, a filmmaker and media commentator, is the host of the Dinesh D'Souza podcast. In today's discussion, we look at why gender dysphoria has become the topic du jour for both sides of the aisle. According to Dinesh, it may mark a dangerous turning point for Western civilization. Today's show is sponsored in part by: https://LegacyPMInvestments.com https://Ruffgreens.com    Support the show: https://trishregan.store/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Daniel Westermayr: Moving Beyond Roadmaps, and Using Data to Drive Decision Making for Agile Product Development Read the full Show Notes and search through the world's largest audio library on Scrum directly on the Scrum Master Toolbox Podcast website: http://bit.ly/SMTP_ShowNotes. In this episode, Daniel emphasizes the importance of collecting data from day one in product development. He discusses how data can help assess the capability of the system in place and create forecasts to assess delivery dates. He mentions the NoEstimates movement and suggests counting the product backlog items that can be finalized in one sprint as a useful metric. Daniel also provides tips for helping teams accept the data, and continuously updating forecasts. He emphasizes the need to work in hypotheses rather than requirements, as it allows for acceptance that they may be wrong. Finally, he notes that data gives us information on how to act and change over time.   [IMAGE HERE] As Scrum Master we work with change continuously! Do you have your own change framework that provides the guidance, and queues you need when working with change? The Lean Change Management framework is a fully defined, lean-startup inspired change framework that can be used as the backbone of any change process! You can buy Lean Change Management the book at Amazon. Also available in French, Spanish, German and Portuguese.   About Daniel Westermayr Daniel is a Kanban Trainer with a knack for all things Lean and Theory of Constraints. He wants to help teams achieve and measure their continuous improvements. You can link with Daniel Westermayr on LinkedIn. 

In this week's episode Greg and Patrick discuss how we might flip the traditional null and alternative hypothesis testing procedures to move us from tests of literal equality to tests of practical equivalence. Along the way they also discuss tough love, horseshoes and hand-grenades, Patrick's Driving School, Cheyenne Mountain, So Long and Thanks For All the Fish, isn't that convenient, why people hate us, systolic blood pressure, *real* doctors, I Can't Drive 55, splash zones, Gallagher, Dilbert, and being precisely equal. Stay in contact with Quantitude! Twitter: @quantitudepod Web page: quantitudepod.org Merch: redbubble.com

The bonus show this week is an extended Kardashian recap. Emma and Julie begin with Kris Jenner's comment debunking the rumor about Scott being excommunicated from the family. They then get into a full breakdown of the trailer, sister by sister. This of course comes with discussions and tangents regarding Kim and Pete, and how their break up will or will not impact what is covered on the show. AloMoves.com for 30 days for free & code CBC for 50% off an annual membership DoorDash: CBC for 50% off your first order (up to $12 value) See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The bonus show this week is an extended Kardashian recap. Emma and Julie begin with Kris Jenner's comment debunking the rumor about Scott being excommunicated from the family. They then get into a full breakdown of the trailer, sister by sister. This of course comes with discussions and tangents regarding Kim and Pete, and how their break up will or will not impact what is covered on the show.  AloMoves.com for 30 days for free & code CBC for 50% off an annual membership  DoorDash: CBC for 50% off your first order (up to $12 value) To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices