Podcasts about Cono

David Rosenberg returns to Excess Returns to explain his bullish case for Treasury bonds, why he expects inflation and economic growth to slow, and the risks he sees in an AI-driven stock market. The Rosenberg Research founder joins Matt Zeigler to discuss consumer spending, Federal Reserve policy, gold, international stocks, and how he translates his economic outlook into a diversified portfolio.Recorded September 16, 2026, before the Federal Reserve's policy announcement.David Rosenberg on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/EconguyRosieRosenberg Researchhttps://www.rosenbergresearch.com/Topics covered:Why Rosenberg believes markets have priced in too much Fed tightening and Treasury bonds offer an opportunityWhy he views higher oil prices as a tax on consumers rather than evidence of sustained, broad-based inflationHow slowing wage growth, falling savings, and the stock market wealth effect shape consumer spendingHow Treasury issuance changes and potential post-election fiscal gridlock could support bondsWhy AI exposure extends beyond technology stocks into utilities, industrials, and other sectorsWhere he sees opportunities in healthcare, consumer staples, pipelines, European stocks, and AsiaHis model portfolio's allocation to equities, bonds, cash, and commoditiesHow gold, central bank buying, and a bearish dollar outlook fit his investment thesisWhy he is positioning for slower growth without making recession his base caseWhat working with portfolio managers taught him about cutting losses and separating conviction from stubbornnessTimestamps:00:00 Rosenberg's portfolio approach and the Treasury opportunity05:58 Why an oil shock can weaken consumer spending10:52 Jobs, wages, and the stock market wealth effect17:35 Fiscal stimulus, Treasury issuance, and the bond outlook22:53 AI concentration risk beyond technology stocks27:10 Why he owns European and Asian equities31:16 Inside his 50% stocks, 30% bonds model portfolio36:43 Betting against the inflation consensus42:41 Gold, central bank reserves, and a weaker dollar48:56 Recession watch and bear market risks for 202753:10 AI correlations and the risks of being fully invested58:27 Cutting losses and knowing when conviction becomes stubbornnessLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson joins Matt Zeigler to explore how AI, blockchain tokenization, and private markets are reshaping investing and asset management. They discuss what these changes mean for individual investors, from personalized portfolios and access to private companies to the concentration risks hiding in passive index funds. Jenny also shares lessons from her journey from intern to CEO, why financial advisors still matter, and why starting early remains her most important investing lesson.Franklin Templetonhttps://www.franklintempleton.comTopics covered:Why AI could create new industries and why learning to use it matters for young professionalsHow Franklin Templeton uses AI agents and why investment decisions still require human judgmentBuilding personalized portfolios around retirement, college savings, and other financial goalsHow blockchain, smart contracts, and instant settlement could reduce financial transaction costsTokenized money market funds, digital wallets, and the obstacles to bringing ETFs on-chainWhy companies stay private longer and what investors miss when they only own public stocksPrivate credit, illiquidity, and the trade-offs involved in expanding access to private marketsHow mega IPOs, AI spending, and changing index composition can increase portfolio concentrationBalancing shareholders, employees, and clients while investing in a company's long-term futureThe value of financial advisors, staying invested, and giving compounding time to workTimestamps:00:00 Jenny Johnson's leadership lessons and path from intern to CEO06:41 AI job disruption and lessons from earlier technology revolutions10:42 How young analysts use AI and where personalized investing is heading15:44 Human judgment, AI agents, and the future of asset management20:17 How tokenization could lower costs and expand financial access24:39 Why blockchain adoption is slow and how tokenized ETFs work29:58 Private company growth, investor access, and liquidity trade-offs35:20 Mega IPOs, index concentration, and the risks of AI spending41:23 Franklin Templeton's family legacy and investing for the next generation46:18 Why financial advisors matter and why investors should start early51:32 Jenny's hands-on experiments with AI toolsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jim Paulsen joins Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler on the latest Jim Paulsen Show to explore why booming AI earnings may be masking a weakening U.S. economy, and what that means for stocks, bonds, and Federal Reserve policy. Using 27 charts, he examines stalled job creation, rising oil prices, growing reliance on debt to finance AI investment, and why he expects a sharper correction in technology than in the broader S&P 500.⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple PodcastsTopics covered:Why strong S&P 500 earnings hide a widening divide between technology, energy, and the remaining seven sectors.Why low unemployment claims may offer false comfort when job creation has stalled.Jim's job market misery index and what it suggests about the case for Fed easing.How business investment and employment have broken their historical relationship.Why weak real disposable income, low savings, and higher oil prices threaten consumer spending.How fading economic momentum could push Treasury yields lower despite renewed inflation fears.Why a shrinking wall of worry could remove an important source of support for stocks.What growth stock leadership, household purchasing power, and ISM services data reveal about market risk.How debt-funded AI spending and widening credit spreads change the risks facing technology companies.Why extreme stock outperformance versus bonds could matter for portfolio allocation.The difference between rising profits per worker and sustainable economic productivity.Why Jim expects a tech bear market but a more moderate correction in the broader S&P 500.Timestamps:00:00 Why oil, rates, and tight policy worry Jim05:43 The three-way split hiding beneath strong earnings09:58 Why low jobless claims may be misleading16:18 When business investment stops creating jobs20:48 Can consumer spending outrun real income?26:01 How the wall of worry has supported stocks31:44 Investor complacency and a shift toward growth fears36:58 The disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street41:35 AI debt financing, credit spreads, and the case for bonds47:25 Investment per worker and the yield curve's earnings warning51:52 Profit productivity versus real economic productivity58:08 Why Jim expects a tech bear market and a broader correctionLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler explore portfolio diversification, hidden bond-fund risks, AI inflation and the competitive advantages that help great businesses compound. Drawing on conversations with Chris Mayer, Robert Hagstrom, Jared Dillian, John Kerschner and Michael Contopoulos, this Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines how to build a portfolio you can stick with and why your investments should account for the risks in your working life.Topics covered:Chris Mayer's invisible moats: how culture and execution can sustain high returns on invested capital.Why Robert Hagstrom sees potential mispricing in competitive advantages that are difficult to measure.Jared Dillian's challenge to Charlie Munger's advice about enduring 50% drawdowns.The Awesome Portfolio, risk tolerance and why comparing everything with the S&P 500 can undermine diversification.How debt-weighted bond indexes can leave investors with more interest rate risk than they expect.Understanding duration and the fixed income sectors that core bond funds can overlook.The case that AI spending, energy demand, labor shortages and rising wealth are inflationary today.How to judge whether AI threatens a business by tracking its most important operating metrics.Why value investors hold losers too long and how a few big winners can carry a portfolio.Dillian's life hedge: accounting for career risk, employer stock and human capital when investing.Timestamps:00:00 AI backlash and this week's investing lessons05:03 Robert Hagstrom on invisible moats and mispricing09:05 Jared Dillian challenges Munger on 50% drawdowns13:05 Risk-adjusted returns and the benchmarking trap17:15 The interest rate risk hiding in core bond funds22:04 Understanding your bond fund's duration28:23 Why AI's inflation costs can precede its benefits33:25 Why value investors struggle to sell37:53 The life hedge: when your job and stocks fall together42:47 Investing alongside clients versus managing personal riskLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Former Fidelity president and MFS chairman Bob Pozen joins Excess Returns to discuss retirement investing, the risks in private credit, and why he favors a 90% stock and 10% cash portfolio for investors who can cover their living expenses without selling stocks.Drawing on decades in asset management, he shares lessons from Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett, explains why index funds are difficult to beat, and challenges conventional thinking about bonds, Social Security, and corporate earnings reporting.Bob Pozen's websitehttps://www.bobpozen.comFollow Bob Pozen on Twitterhttps://x.com/PozenResearch discussed:Consequences of Mandatory Quarterly Reporting: The U.K. Experiencehttps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2817120Rating Without Market Disciplinehttps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6859158Giving Life to Private (Rated) Credithttps://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6857958Topics covered:What investors misunderstand about Peter Lynch and how fund liquidity shaped his approach versus Warren Buffett's.Lessons from leading Fidelity and rebuilding investor trust at MFS after its trading scandal.Why fees, fund size, and market efficiency make large-cap index funds difficult to beat.Private equity in 401(k) plans, liquidity constraints, and the problem with instant valuation markups.How private credit ratings and affiliated investments can obscure risks on insurance company balance sheets.Pozen's proposals for Social Security reform and the consequences of postponing difficult decisions.How automatic IRA enrollment could expand retirement savings access for workers without employer plans.Why Pozen favors a 90/10 portfolio for certain investors and how spending needs and inheritance goals affect allocation.Why quarterly financial reporting and quarterly earnings guidance deserve different treatment.The behavioral cost of chasing rallies and selling downturns, plus Pozen's work on AI and personal productivity.Timestamps:00:00 Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and staying the course05:27 Leading Fidelity and keeping stock funds invested11:03 Rebuilding trust at MFS after the trading scandal16:01 Why active managers struggle to beat index funds20:03 Private equity in 401(k)s and valuation concerns24:45 Private credit ratings and insurance company risks29:33 Regulatory gaps and affiliated insurance investments35:51 Social Security reform and the cost of waiting40:00 Automatic IRAs for workers without retirement plans44:09 The case for 90% stocks and 10% cash50:05 Why quarterly financial reporting matters55:00 The problem with precise quarterly earnings guidance59:00 Avoiding emotional market timing and AI productivity toolsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

John Kerschner and Michael Contopoulos of Janus Henderson join Matt Zeigler to explain why persistent inflation and higher interest rates call for a different approach to bond investing. They explore short-duration bonds, AAA CLOs, mortgage-backed securities and how investors can rethink the fixed income allocation in a 60/40 portfolio.The conversation covers why traditional bond benchmarks may deliver too much interest rate risk for their yield, how ETFs expand access to securitized credit, and why the AI buildout could add to inflation rather than solve it.High-Conviction Views: The time for short-duration bondshttps://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/article/high-conviction-views-the-time-for-short-duration-bonds/Janus Henderson Investorshttps://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/Topics covered:Why deglobalization, fiscal spending and labor constraints could keep inflation and interest rates elevatedHow the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index concentrates interest rate risk and leaves out large parts of the bond marketHow AAA CLOs work, why their coupons float, and why they are different from cashWhy tight corporate credit spreads may offer insufficient compensation for the risks investors takeThe three jobs of fixed income: safety, income and insuranceHow duration determines whether rising rates can wipe out a bond portfolio's incomeWhy bond ETF discounts can reflect price discovery when underlying bonds are not tradingHow Treasury borrowing and AI hyperscaler debt issuance affect bond supply and relative valueWhy AI capital spending, electricity demand, labor shortages and wealth effects can create inflationHow to rebuild the bond allocation around securitized credit, agency mortgages and the risks in your equity portfolioTimestamps:00:00 Rethinking bonds after years of disappointing returns04:28 Why the forces behind the bond bull market have changed10:09 The hidden interest rate risk in the Aggregate Bond Index14:53 AAA CLO ETFs: Floating income, structure and drawdown risk20:44 Treasury fiscal risk and tight corporate credit spreads26:16 Moving beyond set-and-forget bond funds30:45 How duration can overwhelm your bond yield36:27 Bond ETF liquidity and price discovery during stress41:11 Treasury borrowing, AI debt and securitized bond supply46:00 How hyperscaler borrowing can create credit market dislocations50:29 Four reasons AI could increase inflation55:56 Rebuilding the 40% bond allocation in a 60/40 portfolio01:02:00 Municipal bonds, recession protection and balancing equity riskLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jared Dillian joins Matt Zeigler to discuss The Awesome Portfolio, his approach to asset allocation built around 20% each in stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate. They explore how diversification, annual rebalancing, and managing volatility can help investors reduce financial stress and build a portfolio they can stick with through bear markets.Jared explains his "life hedge" concept, challenges conventional wisdom about stock market drawdowns, and shares how losing half his net worth during the financial crisis shaped his investing philosophy.Buy The Awesome Portfolio Bookhttps://amzn.to/3Tf3of7Topics covered:Why Jared questions putting your entire life savings in the S&P 500How the Awesome Portfolio differs from Harry Browne's Permanent PortfolioIncluding home equity when measuring your overall asset allocationWhy volatility and frequent portfolio checking can lead to costly decisionsThe life hedge: protecting against your job and investments declining togetherWhy Jared disagrees with Charlie Munger about tolerating large drawdownsIndex concentration, changing correlations, and the limits of diversificationThe portfolio's historical backtests, including its losses in 2008 and 2022Annual rebalancing, cash reserves, inflation protection, and cryptocurrencyManaging FOMO and taking practical steps toward a less stressful retirement portfolioTimestamps:00:00 Jared Dillian's case against an all-stock portfolio06:33 The five equal allocations in the Awesome Portfolio11:07 Why "never sell" can become a behavioral trap15:26 The life hedge: when your paycheck and portfolio fall together20:38 Risk-adjusted returns and S&P 500 concentration24:49 Why rising interest rates hurt diversification in 202228:51 Backtested losses in 2008 and 202234:26 Combining home equity, retirement accounts, and savings38:58 Cryptocurrency, portfolio distractions, and FOMO44:31 The Death of Equities and lessons from past crashes48:44 How diversification could have changed Jared's financial crisis53:41 First steps toward reducing portfolio risk before retirementLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler explore the AI investment boom, Federal Reserve credibility, accounting risks and the dangers of buying stocks to hold forever. Featuring clips from Dan Niles, Ben Hunt, Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig, this Excess Returns Weekly Wrap connects rising AI adoption with questions about earnings quality, market narratives and the slow financial damage caused by gambling and overtrading.Topics covered:Why even the smartest technology companies can overinvest and misread demandHow agentic AI could drive another wave of adoption, computing demand and business returnsBen Hunt's broken teacup analogy for reputation and Federal Reserve credibilityWhy central bank actions matter more when investors stop believing the rhetoricCameron Dawson's concerns about Nvidia receivables, hyperscaler cash flow and AI accountingHow leases, special purpose vehicles and one-time investment gains complicate earnings analysisDan Niles on survivorship bias and the risks of assuming today's market leaders will win foreverHow Ben Hunt measures narrative life cycles, bursts and shifts in common knowledgeThe connection between declining trust in central banks and gold pricesWhy sports betting, overtrading and repeated small losses can quietly undermine long-term wealthTimestamps:00:00 This week's lineup and Jack's unexpected action hero moment04:09 Dan Niles on smart companies, AI bubbles and agentic demand11:55 Ben Hunt on credibility and the Fed's broken teacup19:46 Cameron Dawson on AI accounting and hidden cash flow pressures28:13 Dan Niles challenges the buy-and-hold-forever mindset32:51 Ben Hunt explains how to measure narrative life cycles37:01 Connecting Fed credibility narratives to gold prices41:04 Dave Nadig on the slow financial drain of sports betting45:09 Gambling from income versus spending down your savingsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler on Click Beta to explore how sports betting, leveraged ETFs and speculative behavior are blurring the line between gambling and investing. They also examine AI circular financing, hyperscaler cash flow and corporate disclosure, asking what investors might be missing beneath headline earnings. The conversation closes with baseball, music fandom and the challenge of learning from imperfect role models.Subscribe to Click Beta on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to Click Beta on Apple PodcastsTopics covered:Why sports betting is becoming a financial planning issue for Gen Z and wealthy familiesHow overconfidence and confusion between skill and luck encourage speculative behaviorWhy rapid market recoveries may reinforce risk-taking instead of teaching cautionHow recurring gambling losses can quietly undermine savings and wealth accumulationThe risks of placing gambling products alongside investments in brokerage appsLeveraged ETF innovation, hourly resets and competing approaches to investor protectionAI circular financing, payment terms, leases and opaque special purpose vehiclesHow one-time investment gains can distort headline earnings and future growth comparisonsWhy less frequent corporate reporting could favor investors with greater resourcesBaseball, emo music, Nirvana merchandise and what makes a meaningful role modelTimestamps:00:00 Sports betting, ETFs and the gambling economy05:24 Financial planning after crypto and gambling wins10:57 Why slow gambling losses can be harder to recognize16:55 Betting inside brokerage apps and regulatory backlash21:03 Gambling budgets and the next wave of leveraged ETFs25:04 AI financial shenanigans and hyperscaler cash flow29:25 Who benefits from less corporate disclosure?34:24 Discovering new passions in adulthood: Westerns and baseball38:30 Hot Topic, Nirvana sweatpants and cultural gatekeeping43:17 Can band merchandise introduce a new generation to music?47:26 Keith Morris and the search for meaningful role models51:34 Learning from imperfect people without idolizing themLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Dan Niles joins Excess Returns to explain why he believes AI is a genuine industrial revolution and a bubble at the same time, with significant opportunity still ahead but growing risks in semiconductors, software, AI CapEx and credit markets. We discuss NVIDIA, OpenAI, Anthropic, China's semiconductor push, data center politics, AI debt issuance, Fed policy and the downside protection framework Dan uses to navigate technology cycles.Dan Niles on Xhttps://x.com/DanielTNilesNiles Investment Managementhttps://www.nilesinvestmentmanagement.comTopics covered:Why AI can be both a transformational technology and an investment bubbleThe AI metrics Dan watches: token pricing, token growth, cloud revenue and operating marginsWhat the Situational Awareness unwind showed about leverage, forced selling and semiconductor volatilityWhy hyperscaler AI revenue can accelerate even as free cash flow deterioratesHow data center opposition, electricity constraints and politics could slow the AI buildoutWhere value may accrue across the AI stack and why Anthropic and Google could pressure OpenAIWhy China's memory chip expansion could bring semiconductor cyclicality back faster than investors expectHow AI is reshaping software, including security, systems of record, gaming and usage-based pricingWhy the shift from free cash flow to debt financing matters for AI CapEx, Treasury yields and credit marketsDan's long-short investment process, Fed outlook, market risk framework and emphasis on downside protectionTimestamps:00:00 Intro04:00 The signals Dan watches to know when the AI bubble is peaking09:12 AI ROI, hyperscaler profits and the problem with negative free cash flow14:19 Why data center politics could become a major risk to AI growth21:28 Why semiconductors are still cyclical and China could change the supply picture25:47 Why smart companies still get bubbles wrong and agentic AI could extend the cycle30:43 Is software the next major casualty of AI disruption?35:04 Why video games may be one of software's safer AI categories39:23 Can markets absorb the surge in AI debt and equity issuance?45:28 Dan Niles' long-short investment process and approach to downside protection50:45 Why Dan thinks the Fed could raise rates in September56:38 Why buy-and-hold can fail and downside protection mattersLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Ben Hunt joins Matt Zeigler to explain why damaged Fed and Treasury credibility could matter just as four major risks converge across private credit, AI financing, oil and the consumer. They discuss financial repression, rising long-term rates, shadow banking and insurance risk, the AI CapEx growth engine, and why Hunt believes gold may benefit if policymakers keep trying to suppress the price of money.Topics coveredWhy credibility is a teacup and why policy reputation is difficult to repair once it breaksHow the Fed's July rate decision changed the market narrative around inflation credibilityThe Four Horsemen: insurance and shadow banking losses, capital crowding out, the Iran war and oil inflation, and a stretched consumerWhy insurer-funded private credit could become a systemic risk if fraud and losses reach major institutionsHow government borrowing and AI data center financing could push long-term interest rates higherWhy fading fiscal stimulus, depleted savings and higher energy costs leave the consumer vulnerableWhat financial repression means and how the Fed and Treasury could try to cap rates and prevent major lossesWhy AI investment may be the key source of US economic growth if consumer activity stallsHow Perscient tracks narrative regimes, virality and shifts in common knowledge across marketsWhy gold can act as an inverse measure of trust in central banks and how Ben is positioning around the risksTimestamps00:00 Intro: Credibility is a Teacup04:00 How the July Fed decision damaged inflation credibility08:21 The Four Horsemen that could threaten the financial system14:00 Oil inflation, the Iran war and a stretched consumer18:39 What financial repression means23:20 How the Fed and Treasury could try to prevent a systemic crisis28:21 Why AI CapEx may be the only major source of GDP growth35:00 When lost Fed credibility became a confirmed market narrative39:34 Narrative stock versus flow and how bursts can move prices44:00 The return of bearish AI CapEx narratives48:09 Why private credit may be easier to can-kick than the 2008 crisisLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Invertir en zonas consolidadas asegura flujo de caja, pero el verdadero salto patrimonial se logra haciendo Land Banking (banco de tierras): detectando anomalías geográficas antes de que el mercado masivo las descubra.En este episodio número 48 de INMOBILIARIA MENTE, Tavo Gabriel abre el mapa del Departamento Central y analiza la franja de transición entre Luque y Mariano Roque Alonso (bordeando el Aeropuerto Silvio Pettirossi), donde todavía se consiguen terrenos estándar desde 100 millones de guaraníes rodeados de infraestructura estratégica.

In this Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down why rising long-term bond yields may be justified by stronger nominal growth, large fiscal deficits and AI-driven capital spending, and why the bigger market risk may be an AI earnings bubble rather than a valuation bubble. Featuring Kevin Muir, Dan Rasmussen and Ian Cassel, the episode also explores private equity's huge software bet, the traits of elite stock pickers, and how the worldview of AI leaders could be driving unusually aggressive capital spending and risk-taking.Topics covered:Why long-term bond yields may be more rational than alarming given stronger nominal GDP, inflation, deficits and heavy Treasury and corporate issuanceHow global fiscal expansion and the AI infrastructure build-out are adding to bond supply and upward pressure on ratesWhy suppressing market interest rates can distort an important economic signal and create unintended consequencesHow private equity became a lagged momentum investor and built massive exposure to software and healthcare technologyWhy recurring revenue does not make a business bulletproof, and how AI could challenge software economics that once looked untouchableIan Cassel's benchmarks for good, great and GOAT stock pickers, from 10-year outperformance to 20% annualized returnsThe five or six core investing skills elite stock pickers need, and why world-class investors become exceptional at one or twoHow AI CapEx can boost current supplier earnings while the buyer's expense is spread over years through depreciationWhy an AI earnings bubble could exist even if headline valuation multiples do not look extremeHow futurism, expected-value thinking and confidence in AGI may be encouraging AI leaders to take enormous capital spending risksTimestamps:00:00 Intro: Kevin Muir, Dan Rasmussen and Ian Cassel05:09 Why suppressing bond yields could create new risks09:54 Private equity as a lagged momentum investor14:15 Why investment committees chase three- and five-year returns19:00 The skills that separate good investors from great ones23:11 Why elite stock picking takes a decade or more to judge27:18 How AI CapEx is changing cash flow, buybacks and earnings31:47 Price bubbles vs earnings bubbles36:00 Why AI leaders may be taking massive CapEx risk40:49 AI adoption bottlenecks and the need for skepticismLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

This month on Last Call, Kevin Muir, Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt and Brent Kochuba break down the market through four lenses: macro, inflation data, narrative and options positioning. They examine whether midterm election volatility is underpriced, why inflation may be more demand-driven and persistent than headline data suggests, how the Fed's credibility has shifted under Kevin Warsh, and why options markets still look remarkably complacent.Follow Last Call on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Last Call on Apple Podcasts⁠Topics coveredWhy ending Fed forward guidance could create more uncertainty around interest rate decisionsKevin Muir's case that midterm election volatility is unusually cheapWhy seasonal volatility, low implied correlation and election risk may favor owning protectionAahan Menon on inflation breadth and why 70 to 80 percent of PCE components are above the Fed's 2 percent targetWhy demand-driven inflation may be stickier than supply-driven inflationHow oil shocks can feed into core inflation and increase pressure on the Fed to hikeBen Hunt on the sudden collapse in the Fed credibility narrative and why gold has respondedThe four risks facing the Fed and Treasury: oil, fading fiscal stimulus, insurance and private credit stress, and the long end of the Treasury curveBrent Kochuba on why implied volatility and put positioning show a market with very little fearNvidia options positioning, potential resistance near 250 to 275, and what dealer gamma says about the stockStanley Druckenmiller's AI-written Wall Street Journal op-ed and what AI-assisted writing means for investment thinkingTimestamps00:00 Midterms, inflation, Fed credibility and options complacency07:45 Kevin Muir on why midterm volatility may be underpriced11:55 Why this midterm could be more volatile than the options market expects16:36 Cheap volatility and how election risk could get repriced20:39 Inflation breadth and why the headline numbers miss the bigger problem25:43 Why cooling inflation data may hide persistent demand-driven pressure33:31 Ben Hunt on why the Fed credibility narrative suddenly reversed40:01 Four risks the Fed and Treasury cannot afford to ignore44:43 What the options market says after Jackson Hole49:10 Why Fed events can become an expensive options tax53:14 Why falling volatility could help stocks push toward new highs57:34 Druckenmiller, AI-written investment commentary and authenticity01:01:53 Why writing is part of thinking in an AI worldLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Kevin Muir of The MacroTourist joins Matt Zeigler to break down the bond market, Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks, the Treasury General Account, AI-driven earnings growth, leveraged ETF risk, gold and the U.S.-Canada trade fight. Kevin explains why rising long-term yields may be less surprising than investors think, how the AI capex boom can inflate earnings before costs show up, and why leveraged ETFs and policy uncertainty could make markets more fragile.Kevin Muir on Xhttps://x.com/kevinmuirThe MacroTouristhttps://themacrotourist.comTopics coveredWhy stronger nominal GDP, large fiscal deficits and record corporate issuance are pressuring long-term Treasury yieldsHow Scott Bessent's Treasury liquidity buybacks work and why investors are comparing them with QE and Operation TwistHow replacing long-dated Treasuries with T-bills could ultimately force reserve management purchases by the Federal ReserveWhy the Treasury General Account matters for liquidity and why attempts to manage the yield curve can distort market signalsJim Chanos's "earnings bubble" argument and how massive AI data-center capex can boost current earnings while costs are amortizedWhy stock prices can fall before forward earnings estimates roll over, and why retail investors may have an advantage over institutionsHow daily-reset leveraged ETFs create reflexive buying and selling and could amplify a semiconductor or single-stock selloffWhy Kevin is bullish on gold again, the role of People's Bank of China demand, and how he combines fundamentals with technical signalsWhy platinum below production cost caught his attention and what rolling mini-bubbles in gold, silver and AI say about investor psychologyWhat 2025 U.S.-Canada trade data says about autos, oil and gas, manufacturing, tariffs and the economic cost of policy uncertaintyTimestamps00:00 Intro06:31 Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks and the bond market10:39 How T-bill issuance could lead to debt monetization18:25 The AI capex boom and the "earnings bubble"22:27 The giant bet embedded in accelerating AI earnings27:37 Why leveraged ETFs are changing market structure32:00 How forced ETF unwinds can amplify a selloff36:41 Why Kevin is bullish on gold again41:57 Platinum, production costs and the precious metals trade46:08 Sentiment extremes and why popular trades get dangerous51:00 Globalization, manufacturing and America's distribution problem55:00 Why oil and gas dominate the U.S.-Canada trade deficit59:00 How tariff uncertainty can deter U.S. manufacturing investment01:03:10 The trade math Kevin wants investors to seeLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Dan Rasmussen, founder and managing partner of Verdad Advisers and author of The Humble Investor, joins Kai Wu to examine the unraveling of private equity, the rise of private credit, and how AI is reshaping software, labor, and the economics of technology investing. They also explore the massive AI CapEx boom, why value investing has struggled in the intangible-heavy U.S. market, the unusual opportunity in Japanese small caps, and how investors can quantify intangible value in biotech.Subscribe on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe on AppleTopics covered:Why private equity became a consensus trade and why exits are now cloggedHow leverage and high debt costs threaten private equity returnsWhat publicly traded private equity funds reveal about true volatility and NAV discountsHow private equity shifted from old-economy buyouts into software and healthcare technologyWhy AI may have erased code as a software moat while strengthening other intangible advantagesHow ARR lending helped private credit finance software buyouts and created an obsolescence mismatchWhat AI is doing to hiring, junior roles, productivity and the composition of workWhy the AI CapEx boom may be a crowded, path-dependent overinvestment cycleWhy traditional value metrics work better in Japan than in the intangible-heavy U.S.How Tokyo Stock Exchange reforms, buybacks and dividends can unlock value in Japanese small capsHow R&D spend, specialist ownership and short interest can help quantify biotech valueTimestamps:00:00 Intro04:03 Why private equity's debt burden changes the equity math09:24 How private equity became a software momentum trade13:29 Why code may no longer be a durable software moat17:48 How private credit enabled software buyouts through ARR lending23:56 AI productivity, jobs and why displacement is slower than expected30:23 Why the AI CapEx boom may be the market's most crowded risk34:29 Rational overinvestment, leverage and the timing risk in AI38:46 Why consumers may capture more of AI's value than investors44:07 Japan's below-book-value reform and the return of old-school value51:03 Quantifying biotech value with R&D, specialist ownership and short interest55:08 Dan's non-consensus views on private markets and JapanLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

La Tertulia - 27.08.2026 - Rúben Rada, ícono de la música popular uruguaya, falleció a los 83 años de edad by En Perspectiva

Bob Robotti, founder and CIO of Robotti & Company, joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explain why bottom-up value investing may be entering one of its best opportunity sets in decades. They discuss AI and reindustrialization, inflation and interest rates, passive investing, capital cycles, private equity, long-term ownership, and why today's neglected industrial businesses may offer opportunities that the market is missing.I join Matt Zeigler for one more special episode of Excess Returns. I'm excited to share this episode with you—it's reposted here with permission and blessing from both Matt and Jack. Don't miss it! And follow their work; links below.Bob Robotti on Xhttps://x.com/BobRobottiRobotti & Companyhttps://www.robotti.comTopics coveredHow Bob finds misunderstood businesses with latent earnings powerWhy his “grassroots macro” process starts with company-level supply and demandHow AI spending is increasing demand for energy, copper, aluminum, cement and other physical assetsWhy North America's natural gas advantage could support a long-term reindustrialization cycleWhy persistent inflation could force higher interest rates and lower valuation multiplesWhy no competitive moat is permanent, even for today's dominant technology companiesHow passive investing and shorter time horizons can create opportunities for fundamental stock pickersWhy prolonged downturns can improve industry economics through consolidation and reduced capacityWhy Bob views himself as an active owner rather than an activist investorWhy he is skeptical of today's private equity model and its expansion into retirement portfoliosThe NewMarket investment that taught him the cost of selling a great business too earlyWhy he thinks individual company research can outperform indexing over the next decadeLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm's employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Ian Cassel, founder of MicroCapClub and author of Stock Picker, joins Matt Zeigler to break down the mindset, temperament and core skills required to outperform as an active stock picker. They discuss microcap investing, position sizing, active patience, valuation, management quality, portfolio survival, benchmarking against the S&P 500 and how great investors evolve their edge over decades.Stock Picker: How to Develop the Mindset, Temperament, and Strategy to Outperform Wall Streethttps://amzn.to/4hU28ImTopics coveredHow an investor's motivations change as ambition gives way to family, legacy and the scarcity of timeHow Ian turned $20,000 into $120,000, then watched it fall to $8,000, and why that early win permanently shaped his risk toleranceIan's four-part survival framework: recession-resistant growth, strong balance sheets, conservative valuation and signs of intelligent fanaticismWhy balance-sheet strength is not just defensive and can let great companies act aggressively when competitors are forced to retreatWhy Ian targets roughly a 25 percent CAGR without relying on multiple expansionThe Judas goat lesson, talking your book on social media and why investors still have to do their own workWhy comparing short-term returns can corrupt an investing process and why Ian measures himself against the S&P 500 over a 10-year horizonThe five core stock-picking skills: identifying, analyzing, buying, selling and holding, plus why selling matters especially in microcapsWhy position sizing should account for initial excitement, and why Ian now starts much smaller than he did earlier in his careerActive patience, expanding your circle of competence and the difference between good, great and GOAT stock pickersWhy temperament evolves with experience, why leverage can destroy otherwise good investing, and why the best investors keep sharpening their edgeWhy Ian is willing to back repeat-winner management teams before every piece of the business is fully in placeTimestamps00:00 Intro06:58 The $20,000 to $120,000 win and 90 percent loss11:02 Ian Cassel's four-part survival framework15:02 Why strong balance sheets create offensive optionality19:03 The Judas goat and social media stock promotion23:18 Why comparison is the enemy for stock pickers29:39 The five core stock-picking skills34:43 Active patience and knowing what you are looking for39:28 Good, great and GOAT stock pickers47:02 How investor temperament evolves over time52:03 Leverage, situational awareness and surviving to compound57:24 Betting on repeat-winner management before the numbers arriveLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

This week on the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down key investing lessons from recent conversations with Andy Constan, Liz Ann Sonders and Bob Robotti.They examine why rising long-term interest rates can coexist with a strong stock market, how rolling recessions and the shift from labor income to corporate profits are shaping the economy, why AI's biggest beneficiaries may be in energy and old-economy materials, and whether the bond market can really lose control of long-term yields.Topics covered:Why higher long-term interest rates can be consistent with stronger economic growth and rising stock pricesHow productivity growth, Treasury issuance and corporate bond supply can push real yields higherWhy the post-pandemic economy has experienced rolling sector recessions instead of a traditional synchronized business cycleHow stock market optimism can coexist with pessimism about unemployment, wages and the broader economyWhy labor compensation has fallen as a share of GDP while corporate profits have increasedWhat the labor-versus-capital shift may mean for inflation, investor sentiment and future policyWhy the AI capital spending boom creates demand for cement, aluminum, copper, natural gas and other physical inputsHow low-cost North American natural gas could support reindustrialization and give the U.S. a structural energy advantageWhy renewables and electrification still depend on traditional energy, commodities and industrial materialsHow decades of underinvestment in energy and materials could create a long-duration capital cycle for value investorsWhy deep natural demand for Treasuries makes a disorderly loss of control over the long end of the yield curve less likelyTimestamps:02:15 Why rising rates and record-high stocks can coexist07:30 Rolling recessions and why the economy isn't moving in sync11:57 Labor vs. capital and the rise in corporate profit share17:39 Why the biggest AI beneficiaries may be cement, copper and natural gas25:26 Could the bond market really lose control of the long end?30:22 Where to find episode notes, transcripts and moreLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins us to explain why today's economy and stock market are increasingly defined by rotation, instability and a changing stock-bond relationship. We discuss AI capital spending and earnings concentration, Treasury yields and the deficit, immigration and labor supply, investor sentiment, market breadth, portfolio rebalancing, IPOs and the growing economic importance of the stock market wealth effect.Topics covered:Why the post-pandemic economy is moving through sector-level recessions and expansions instead of a traditional linear cycleThe return of a more temperamental market regime, inflation volatility and the changing correlation between stocks and bondsWhy volatility-based rebalancing may matter more than calendar-based rebalancing and why market leadership is broadeningImmigration, labor shortages and why slower population growth changes how investors should interpret payroll dataFederal deficits, entitlement spending, rising 30-year Treasury yields and why Treasury intervention cannot solve the underlying fundamentalsHow the AI spending boom, imports and hyperscaler capital expenditures are affecting GDP, bond issuance and capital marketsCorporate profits versus labor compensation and why Liz Ann does not see an obvious near-term catalyst for convergenceKevin Warsh, reduced Fed guidance and why less communication could create more market uncertaintyAttitudinal versus behavioral investor sentiment, the vibe session and why sentiment is becoming harder to use as a timing signalThe AI cascade beyond mega-cap tech, the Neural Nine, small caps and why rotation may be the new momentum tradeMargin debt, record household equity exposure and the risk that a future stock market decline feeds back into the economyS&P 500 earnings concentration, sell-side versus buy-side expectations, AI depreciation risk and the return of a major IPO cycleTimestamps:00:00 Liz Ann Sonders on the unusual 2026 market and economic cycle05:49 Portfolio construction, diversification and volatility-based rebalancing11:39 Immigration, labor supply and the new payroll breakeven rate17:38 Why long-term Treasury yields are rising and what the Treasury can and cannot fix22:07 Corporate profits versus labor compensation as a share of GDP27:37 Attitudinal versus behavioral sentiment and lessons from 202232:13 The vibe session, consumer confidence and conflicting investor expectations37:14 The Neural Nine, widening stock dispersion and rotation as the new momentum41:21 Margin debt, leveraged speculation and where the real risk may be45:52 S&P 500 earnings growth, concentration and the sell-side versus buy-side gap50:27 Hyperscaler AI capex, debt financing and signals from the corporate bond market55:05 IPOs, FOMO and why investors should be careful about chasing new issues60:05 Where to follow the real Liz Ann Sonders and avoid impersonator scamsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Andy Constan is back on First Principles to explain why record stock prices, rising long-term Treasury yields and sticky inflation can all coexist, and why the next major market risk may come from the financing behind the AI CapEx boom rather than the eventual return on that investment. We discuss Kevin Warsh and Fed balance sheet policy, Treasury issuance and the quarterly refunding announcement, corporate bond and equity supply, Nvidia's $500 billion financing structure, and Andy's "not enough pie" framework for comparing AI earnings expectations with GDP and productivity growth.Follow First Principles on Spotify⁠⁠Follow First Principles of Apple PodcastsTopics coveredWhy rising long-term interest rates can be consistent with strong economic growth and record stock pricesWhy Andy does not see higher government interest costs creating an imminent U.S. debt crisisThe "script to kill inflation" and why reducing the wealth effect may require lower stock, bond and asset pricesHow the Fed, Treasury and other policymakers have suppressed long-term interest rates and risk premiumsWhy Kevin Warsh's comments about the Fed balance sheet and letting the bond market "do the work" could signal a policy shiftHow Treasury bill issuance, coupon issuance and the quarterly refunding announcement can affect stocks, bonds and financial conditionsWhy the AI CapEx boom is shifting from cash flow funding toward massive corporate debt and equity issuanceAndy's "hamburger thesis" and why the ability to finance AI infrastructure may matter before anyone knows the ultimate AI ROIWhy capital markets can suddenly close after issuance booms and what that could mean for the AI investment cycleHow Nvidia's $500 billion financing structure expands the pool of capital available to data center projectsThe "not enough pie" problem: why projected corporate earnings may require extraordinary GDP growth, productivity gains or a larger corporate share of the economyWhat Andy watches in new stock and bond deals for signs that investors are becoming unwilling to absorb more supplyTimestamps00:00:08 Why stocks, long-term yields and inflation can all rise together00:07:18 The "script to kill inflation" and why short-term rates may not be enough00:12:48 How policymakers have suppressed long-term interest rates00:16:53 The Warsh "drumbeat" and a possible shift in Fed balance sheet policy00:21:56 Why markets may be underestimating Warsh's willingness to fight inflation00:26:27 Treasury bills versus coupons and the limits of current financing policy00:31:33 The "hamburger thesis" behind the massive AI CapEx funding shift00:38:41 Why AI financing may matter more than AI ROI in the short run00:42:55 Breaking down Nvidia's $500 billion data center financing structure00:47:51 The "not enough pie" problem for AI earnings and economic growth00:52:03 Demographics, productivity and the limits on future GDP growth00:56:14 What issuance prices reveal about capital market stressLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Bob Robotti, founder and CIO of Robotti & Company, joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explain why bottom-up value investing may be entering one of its best opportunity sets in decades. They discuss AI and reindustrialization, inflation and interest rates, passive investing, capital cycles, private equity, long-term ownership, and why today's neglected industrial businesses may offer opportunities that the market is missing.Bob Robotti on Xhttps://x.com/BobRobottiRobotti & Companyhttps://www.robotti.comTopics coveredHow Bob finds misunderstood businesses with latent earnings powerWhy his "grassroots macro" process starts with company-level supply and demandHow AI spending is increasing demand for energy, copper, aluminum, cement and other physical assetsWhy North America's natural gas advantage could support a long-term reindustrialization cycleWhy persistent inflation could force higher interest rates and lower valuation multiplesWhy no competitive moat is permanent, even for today's dominant technology companiesHow passive investing and shorter time horizons can create opportunities for fundamental stock pickersWhy prolonged downturns can improve industry economics through consolidation and reduced capacityWhy Bob views himself as an active owner rather than an activist investorWhy he is skeptical of today's private equity model and its expansion into retirement portfoliosThe NewMarket investment that taught him the cost of selling a great business too earlyWhy he thinks individual company research can outperform indexing over the next decadeTimestamps00:00 Intro04:02 Grassroots macro and the search for latent earnings power08:37 Why Bob started his own investment firm13:00 How AI creates demand for the physical economy17:59 Why Bob avoids the mega-cap technology companies22:00 Inflation, interest rates and the valuation risk investors may be missing26:07 Why no competitive moat is permanent31:36 How passive investing creates opportunities for stock pickers36:00 Why Bob believes the "fallen" areas of the market can rise again40:06 How bad business conditions create better long-term investments44:39 Active ownership, boards and understanding businesses from the inside48:59 Why Bob is skeptical of modern private equity55:15 The biggest loss of his career: selling a winner too early01:03:32 The one investing lesson Bob would teach everyoneLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

In this week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down Jim Paulsen's warning that falling Treasury yields could become bad news for stocks if markets shift from inflation fears to growth fears, and Dom Rizzo's bullish case for AI productivity and frontier models. They also examine whether today's productivity boom is real, how AI coding tools like Claude Code and Codex could reshape white-collar work, and why recessions can create misleading spikes in measured productivity.Topics coveredWhy falling Treasury yields can be bullish when inflation is cooling but bearish when growth is weakeningJim Paulsen's case that economic surprise data could be pointing toward lower 10-year Treasury yieldsWhat the stock-bond correlation says about whether investors are more worried about inflation or recessionDom Rizzo's bullish case for AI-driven coding productivity and the rapid growth of frontier AI modelsHow large the AI coding market could become and where OpenAI, Anthropic and other AI companies may capture valueWhy open-source and lower-cost AI models could dominate token volume while frontier models capture most of the economicsWhether enterprise AI spending is evidence that companies are already seeing meaningful returnsThe challenge of translating more code and faster knowledge work into measurable revenue, cost savings and economic productivityJim Paulsen's argument that recessions often create temporary spikes in measured productivityWhether today's productivity gains reflect a genuine AI boom, economic weakness, or some combination of bothTimestamps00:00 Why hearing the AI case you disagree with matters04:47 When falling Treasury yields could become bad news for stocks10:54 Dom Rizzo on AI coding productivity and who captures the value16:49 Can we actually measure the economic payoff from AI?22:52 Jim Paulsen on why recessions can create false productivity booms27:00 What today's productivity data may be saying about the economyLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

In this episode of The Jim Paulsen Show, Jim explains why weakening labor data, softening inflation, and lagged policy tightening could shift markets from inflation fears toward growth and recession fears. He also breaks down why the AI productivity boom may be overstated, how AI capital spending is supporting the economy, why Treasury yields look too high, and why investors may want to rebalance from new era technology stocks toward old era stocks and bonds.Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple PodcastsTopics CoveredWhy weak jobs data and benign inflation have changed the outlook for the Federal ReserveLabor force contraction, stalled job growth, and the risks facing consumer spendingHousing affordability, services activity, real income, savings, and signs of economic weaknessHow the stock-bond correlation can reveal a shift from inflation fears to growth and recession fearsWhy Jim expects Fed rate cuts before year-end and sees downside risk for Treasury yieldsHow higher oil prices, bond yields, and the dollar can hit stocks and the economy with a lagWhy today's AI productivity boom may be a mirage rather than a repeat of the 1960s or 1990sHow AI CapEx, core capital goods orders, and technology stocks are linkedWhy the 10-year Treasury yield may be mispriced relative to growth and inflationThe widening divide between new era and old era stocks and what it could mean for portfolio allocationTimestamps00:00 Jim's outlook: weak jobs, benign inflation, and growth fears04:11 Labor force rollover and consumer warning signs09:06 Real income collapse and economic surprise data13:06 Why bond yields could fall below 4 percent17:45 Why Jim expects Fed cuts instead of hikes22:07 How policy tightening hits the economy with a lag26:16 Why productivity gains can be a recession mirage30:20 What a true productivity boom looks like34:38 AI stocks as a leading signal for capital spending39:08 Why Treasury yields may be mispriced44:31 Oil, core inflation, and the case for easing48:32 New era versus old era correlation as a warning52:54 Why today's AI economy may be more vulnerable than dot-com57:22 Portfolio allocation takeaways: bonds, old era, and techLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Un capítulo “delicioso” de Salud por la Historia. Andrés Kalawski y Paula Molina reconstruyen una increíble cadena de decisiones, casualidades e innovaciones que conectan a Napoleón Bonaparte, la venta de Luisiana y una feria mundial en San Luis con uno de los inventos más populares de la historia de la gastronomía: el cono de helado.La historia comienza a comienzos del siglo XIX, cuando Francia decide vender el territorio de Luisiana a Estados Unidos. Un siglo después, la Feria Mundial de San Luis reúne grandes novedades, avances tecnológicos y nuevas formas de comer. Entre ellas, una idea sencilla que cambiaría para siempre la manera de consumir helados: ponerlos dentro de un cono de galleta.Pero la historia no termina ahí. La feria también ayudó a popularizar otros alimentos y productos, como la hamburguesa en pan redondo, los hot dogs, el algodón de azúcar y la bebida Dr. Pepper.Conéctate con la historia… en Cooperativapodcast.cl

T. Rowe Price technology portfolio manager Dom Rizzo joins Jack Forehand and Kai Wu to break down the AI investment cycle, hyperscaler capital spending, semiconductor demand, and why the recent tech selloff may look more like 1998 than the end of the boom. They discuss AI return on investment, OpenAI and Anthropic, open versus closed models, financing the data center buildout, the future of software, labor productivity, and how to construct a global technology portfolio.Topics coveredWhy Dom sees similarities between the 2026 semiconductor correction and the 1998 selloffWhy hyperscaler AI CapEx could accelerate from already historic levelsWhat cloud revenue growth and operating margins say about AI return on invested capitalWhy end-user productivity is the key test for sustainable AI demandOpen-weight models versus frontier labs and where AI economic value may accrueWhy chips, memory, logic semiconductors, TSMC and ASML sit at critical points in the AI value chainHow equity, debt and operating cash flow could finance the next stage of the data center buildoutWhy semiconductors remain cyclical even in a structurally capital-intensive AI boomWhy AI agents could turn traditional enterprise software into data pipesAI productivity, labor displacement and the case for faster GDP growthHow Dom thinks about technology portfolio construction, risk factors and global stock selectionTimestamps00:00 AI, the tech correction and the 1998 comparison04:07 Why the AI capital spending cycle may only be halfway12:33 The real test for AI demand: end-user ROI17:00 Why frontier models may capture most of the economic value21:23 Where the biggest AI moats and profit pools could emerge28:12 Financing the AI buildout with equity and debt36:03 Are semiconductors in a supercycle or still cyclical?41:43 What AI agents mean for traditional software companies46:03 AI productivity versus labor displacement51:01 Building a portfolio for a technology revolution56:06 Global tech opportunities and Dom's stock-picking frameworkLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

This week on the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down the AI capital spending boom, the risk that data center investment is crowding out housing and other parts of the economy, and what that means for markets. Featuring Richard Bernstein, David Rosenberg, Tian Yang, and Brent Donnelly, the episode covers AI CapEx, GDP growth, inflation, the K-shaped economy, AI ROI, and why rationality and Bayesian thinking matter more than raw intelligence for investors and traders.Topics coveredWhy the AI and data center boom may be misallocating capital away from housing and infrastructureWhat the dot-com bubble taught Richard Bernstein about investing where capital is scarceWhy AI related spending is approaching half of business CapEx while ex-AI investment is shrinkingHow today's K-shaped economy differs from the broad economic boom of the late 1990sThe difference between AI's contribution to GDP growth and its share of total GDPTian Yang's Kalecki-Levy framework for understanding spending, savings, income, and economic resilienceWhy a pullback in hyperscaler CapEx could weaken the spending and income loopWhy AI return on investment is so difficult to measure and how the profit pool could broaden beyond hardwareBrent Donnelly on why rationality and flexibility matter more than credentials or raw intelligenceWhy persistent bearishness can become a major investing mistakeHow Bayesian thinking, position sizing, and changing your mind help investors stay in the gameTimestamps00:02 Rich Bernstein and David Rosenberg reunite and this week's lineup04:10 The dot-com lesson: what happens when capital floods one sector08:15 AI CapEx, inflation, and why today's economy is different from the 1990s13:58 Kalecki-Levy: how spending and savings are keeping growth resilient18:03 AI CapEx concentration, productivity, and the uncertainty around ROI22:21 Brent Donnelly on why rationality beats intelligence26:21 Strong opinions, flexibility, and Bayesian thinking30:33 What traders and market makers can teach long-term investorsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Santa Misa de Hoy, San Lorenzo, diácono y mártir (10-08-2026) Pbro. Santiago Martín, FM Canales de comunicación de Magnificat TV, proyecto evangelizador de los Franciscanos de María: Todo nuestro trabajo evangelizador no sería posible sin la colaboración de ustedes, Cuenta PayPal: paypal@magnificat.tv Canales de comunicación de Magnificat TV, proyecto evangelizador de los Franciscanos de María: Sitio web: http://magnificat.tv/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Magnificattv/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/MagnificatTVFranciscanosdeMaria Twitter: https://twitter.com/MagnificatTV Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/misioneros.del.agradecimiento/ Podcast por Ivoox: https://bit.ly/AudiosMagnificatTV Podcast por Spotify: https://bit.ly/MagnificatTV_Podcast #FranciscanosDeMaria #MisionerosDelAgradecimiento #PadreSantiagoMaríin #Magnificattv #Agradecimiento #Católico #IglesiaCatólica #LaSantaMisa #LaMisaHoy #LaMisadeHoy #Eucaristía #Homilia #HomiliadeHoy

"Los pobres son el tesoro de la Iglesia" | Homilía, San Lorenzo, Diácono y Mártir (10-08-2026) | P. Santiago Martín FM Canales de comunicación de Magnificat TV, proyecto evangelizador de los Franciscanos de María: Todo nuestro trabajo evangelizador no sería posible sin la colaboración de ustedes, Cuenta PayPal: paypal@magnificat.tv Canales de comunicación de Magnificat TV, proyecto evangelizador de los Franciscanos de María: Sitio web: http://magnificat.tv/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Magnificattv/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/MagnificatTVFranciscanosdeMaria Twitter: https://twitter.com/MagnificatTV Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/misioneros.del.agradecimiento/ Podcast por Ivoox: https://bit.ly/AudiosMagnificatTV Podcast por Spotify: https://bit.ly/MagnificatTV_Podcast #FranciscanosDeMaria #MisionerosDelAgradecimiento #PadreSantiagoMaríin #Magnificattv #Agradecimiento #Católico #IglesiaCatólica #LaSantaMisa #LaMisaHoy #LaMisadeHoy #Eucaristía #Homilia #HomiliadeHoy

San Lorenzo, Diácono y Mártir Jn 12,24-26 12,24 Les aseguro que, si el grano de trigo que cae en la tierra no muere, queda solo; pero si muere, da mucho fruto. 12,25 El que tiene apego a su vida la perderá; y el que no está apegado a su vida en este mundo, la conservará para la Vida eterna. 12,26 El que quiera servirme, que me siga, y donde yo esté, estará también mi servidor. El que quiera servirme, será honrado por mi Padre. Evangelio según san Juan 12, 24-26 En aquel tiempo, Jesús dijo a sus discípulos: «Yo les aseguro que si el grano de trigo sembrado en la tierra no muere, queda infecundo; pero si muere, producirá mucho fruto. El que se ama a sí mismo, se pierde; el que se aborrece a sí mismo en este mundo, se asegura para la vida eterna. El que quiera servirme que me siga, para que donde yo esté, también esté mi servidor.El que me sirve será honrado por mi Padre». *** San Lorenzo, Diácono y Mártir Los datos acerca de este santo los ha narrado San Ambrosio, San Agustín y el poeta Prudencio. Lorenzo era uno de los siete diáconos de Roma, o sea uno de los siete hombres de confianza del Sumo Pontífice. Su oficio era de gran responsabilidad, pues estaba encargado de distribuir las ayudas a los pobres. En el año 257 el emperador Valeriano publicó un decreto de persecución en el cual ordenaba que todo el que se declarara cristiano sería condenado a muerte. El 6 de agosto el Papa San Sixto estaba celebrando la santa Misa en un cementerio de Roma cuando fue asesinado junto con cuatro de sus diáconos por la policía del emperador. Cuatro días después fue martirizado su diácono San Lorenzo. Entonces Lorenzo viendo que el peligro llegaba, recogió todos los dineros y demás bienes que la Iglesia tenía en Roma y los repartió entre los pobres. Y vendió los cálices de oro, copones y candeleros valiosos, y el dinero lo dio a las gentes más necesitadas. La antigua tradición dice que cuando Lorenzo vio que la Sumo Pontífice lo iban a matar le dijo: «Padre mío, ¿te vas sin llevarte a tu diácono?» y San Sixto le respondió: «Hijo mío, dentro de pocos días me seguirás». Lorenzo se alegró mucho al saber que pronto iría a gozar de la gloria de Dios. El alcalde de Roma, que era un pagano muy amigo de conseguir dinero, llamó a Lorenzo y le dijo: «Me han dicho que los cristianos emplean cálices y patenas de oro en sus sacrificios, y que en sus celebraciones tienen candeleros muy valiosos. Vaya, recoga todos los tesoros de la Iglesia y me los trae, porque el emperador necesita dinero para costear una guerra que va a empezar». Lorenzo le pidió que le diera tres días de plazo para reunir todos los tesoros de la Iglesia, y en esos días fue invitando a todos los pobres, lisiados, mendigos, huérfanos, viudas, ancianos, mutilados, ciegos y leprosos que él ayudaba con sus limosnas. Y al tercer día los hizo formar en filas, y mandó llamar al alcalde diciéndole: «Ya tengo reunidos todos los tesoros de la iglesia. Le aseguro que son más valiosos que los que posee el emperador». Llegó el alcalde muy contento pensando llenarse de oro y plata y al ver semejante colección de miseria y enfermedad se disgustó enormemente, pero Lorenzo le dijo: «¿por qué se disgusta? ¡Estos son los tesoros más apreciados de la iglesia de Cristo!». El alcalde lleno de rabia le dijo: «Pues ahora te mando matar, pero no creas que vas a morir instantáneamente. Te haré morir poco a poco para que padezcas todo lo que nunca te habías imaginado. Ya que tienes tantos deseos de ser mártir, te martirizaré horriblemente». Y encendieron una parrilla de hierro y ahí acostaron al diácono Lorenzo. San Agustín dice que el gran deseo que el mártir tenía de ir junto a Cristo le hacía no darle importancia a los dolores de esa tortura. Los cristianos vieron el rostro del mártir rodeado de un esplendor hermosísismo y sintieron un aroma muy agradable mientras lo quemaban. Los paganos ni veían ni sentían nada de eso. Después de un rato de estarse quemando en la parrilla ardiendo el mártir dijo al juez: "Ya estoy asado por un lado. Ahora que me vuelvan hacia el otro lado para quedar asado por completo". El verdugo mandó que lo voltearan y así se quemó por completo. Cuando sintió que ya estaba completamente asado exclamó: «La carne ya está lista, pueden comer». Y con una tranquilidad que nadie había imaginado rezó por la conversión de Roma y la difusión de la religión de Cristo en todo el mundo, y exhaló su último suspiro. Era el 10 de agosto del año 258. El poeta Pruedencio dice que el martirio de San Lorenzo sirvió mucho para la conversión de Roma porque la vista del valor y constancia de este gran hombre convirtió a varios senadores y desde ese día la idolatía empezó a disminuir en la ciudad. San Agustín afirma que Dios obró muchos milagros en Roma en favor de los que se encomendaban a San Lorenzo. El santo padre mandó construirle una hermosa Basílica en Roma, siendo la Basílica de San Lorenzo la quinta en importancia en la Ciudad Eterna. Tomado deSantopedia

“El que me sirve será honrado por mi Padre.”Del santo Evangelio según san Juan: 12, 24-26.Lectura y reflexión: Pbro. José Jesús Tello Bárcenas.En aquel tiempo, Jesús dijo a sus discípulos: «Yo les aseguro que si el grano de trigo sembrado en la tierra no muere, queda infecundo; pero si muere, producirá mucho fruto. El que se ama a sí mismo, se pierde; el que se aborrece a sí mismo en este mundo, se asegura para la vida eterna.El que quiera servirme, que me siga, para que donde yo esté, también esté mi servidor. El que me sirve será honrado por mi Padre».Palabra del Señor. Gloria a ti, Señor Jesús.

Adquiere el "LIBRO DE ORACIÓN. Mi día a día con Jesús" en https://sercreyente.com/libros. Con más de 400 páginas, más de 500 oraciones y decenas de ilustraciones. Ve el vídeo en https://youtu.be/_9Z40IqjHj8________________Lunes, 10 de agosto de 2026 (San Lorenzo, diácono y mártir)Evangelio del día y reflexión... ¡Deja que la Palabra del Señor transforme tu vida! Texto íntegro del Evangelio y de la Reflexión en https://sercreyente.com/10-agosto-san-lorenzo-diacono-y-martir/[Juan 12, 24-26] En aquel tiempo, dijo Jesús: «En verdad, en verdad os digo: si el grano de trigo no cae en tierra y muere, queda infecundo; pero si muere, da mucho fruto. El que se ama a sí mismo, se pierde, y el que se aborrece a sí mismo en este mundo, se guardará para la vida eterna. El que quiera servirme, que me siga, y donde esté yo, allí también estará mi servidor; a quien me sirva, el Padre lo honrará».En aquel tiempo, dijo Jesús: «En verdad, en verdad os digo: si el grano de trigo no cae en tierra y muere, queda infecundo; pero si muere, da mucho fruto. El que se ama a sí mismo, se pierde, y el que se aborrece a sí mismo en este mundo, se guardará para la vida eterna. El que quiera servirme, que me siga, y donde esté yo, allí también estará mi servidor; a quien me sirva, el Padre lo honrará».________________Descárgate la app de SerCreyente en https://sercreyente.com/app/¿Conoces nuestra Oración Online? Más información en: https://sercreyente.com/oracion¿Quieres recibir cada día el Evangelio en tu whatsapp? Alta en: www.sercreyente.com/whatsappTambién puedes hacer tu donativo en https://sercreyente.com/ayudanos/Contacto: info@sercreyente.com

Richard Bernstein and David Rosenberg reunite to debate the Federal Reserve, inflation, the AI investment boom, market bubbles, gold and the case for international diversification. The former Merrill Lynch colleagues examine whether the Fed should raise rates, how AI CapEx is reshaping the U.S. economy, why credit markets may lead the AI trade, what is driving gold, and where investors may find opportunities outside the mega-cap U.S. market.Topics coveredWhy the Taylor Rule points toward higher rates and why Rosenberg thinks the Fed should not hikeWhat slowing GDP growth, productivity and labor costs suggest about underlying inflationHow AI CapEx and data center spending may be misallocating capital away from housing and the broader economyWhy the current AI boom differs from the late-1990s technology bubbleHow credit spreads, CDS markets and financing costs could signal trouble in the AI trade before equities doWhat real interest rates, the U.S. dollar and central bank demand mean for goldWhy Bernstein views gold as a portfolio spare tire rather than a short-term tradeWhy non-U.S. stocks and international markets may offer a better valuation and growth opportunityHow AI exposure extends beyond the Mag Seven into financials, industrials and utilitiesWhy CAPE valuations, leverage, sentiment and market positioning point to a highly speculative U.S. marketWhy diversification becomes most unpopular when investors may need it mostWhat Bob Farrell's market rules say about crowded positioning and consensus forecastsTimestamps00:00 Introduction08:31 Why Rosenberg thinks the Fed should not hike16:02 AI, data centers and capital misallocation25:08 What is driving gold: real rates, the dollar and central banks36:11 Why Bernstein sees a secular shift toward non-U.S. stocks41:41 How AI concentration extends beyond the technology sector48:31 International diversification as protection from AI concentration54:06 Bob Farrell's Rule 9 and the danger of consensus1:00:06 The housing-cycle warning Bernstein and Rosenberg saw before the financial crisisLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Tian Yang, head of research at Variant Perception and portfolio manager of the VPX ETF, explains how investors can use adaptive leading indicators, capital cycle analysis and behavioral signals to navigate a market shaped by AI spending, inflation and government intervention. He breaks down why the macro backdrop remains risk-on, what would signal a true market top, why a Federal Reserve rate hike may still be unlikely and how AI could reshape profits, jobs and portfolio construction.Variant Perceptionhttps://www.variantperception.com/Variant Perception Cycle Aware US Equity ETFhttps://etf.variantperception.com/Topics coveredHow first-principles thinking separates causal signals from noisy dataWhy static recession indicators and consumer sentiment have become less reliableHow Variant Perception combines growth, inflation, policy and liquidity into a Macro Risk IndicatorWhy AI capital spending and low savings rates are supporting economic resilienceHow AI profits could broaden from hardware bottlenecks to adopters and complementary assetsWhy the sovereign technology race may extend the AI investment cycleWhat savings rates, liquidity, leverage and cash settlement reveal about recessions and market topsHow potential SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI supply could affect public equity marketsWhat capital cycle and crowding signals say about semiconductors and hyperscalersWhy headline inflation may stay high without creating persistent core inflationHow the K-shaped consumer, labor market and Federal Reserve reform shape the policy outlookHow AI could widen economic inequality, compress wages and change investment researchHow the VPX ETF uses adaptive sector tilts, stock selection and active riskTimestamps00:00 First principles, causal data and leading indicators04:48 Why traditional recession indicators stopped working09:00 Building the Macro Risk Indicator13:02 How AI CapEx is keeping the economy resilient17:18 Is the AI boom different from past bubbles?21:32 Why rising savings rates often precede recessions26:11 Why the market-top warning is amber, not red30:58 Are semiconductors still cyclical?36:22 Why an oil shock may not force the Fed to hike42:12 How Kevin Warsh could reform the Federal Reserve46:50 The increasingly bifurcated economy51:11 How AI is changing investment research55:38 Active risk, playing the game and avoiding forced errorsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

WINGMAN is out now on Gumroad, Apple TV and Amazon Prime! GUMROAD- https://thewingman.gumroad.com/l/WINGMAN APPLE TV- https://tv.apple.com/us/movie/wingman/umc.cmc.nfzru25awp5jnendhudhjw9t This episode is sponsored by CashApp, Hims & Hers. Thanks for watching the Harland Highway! -Download Cash App Today: https://click.cash.app/ui6m/7o7jwwlk #CashAppPod. -To get simple, online access to personalized, affordable care for ED, HairLoss, Weight Loss, and more, visit Hims.com/Harland. More Harland Williams: Harland Highway Podcast Video: https://www.youtube.com/c/HarlandHighwayPodcast Harland Highway Podcast Audio: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-harland-highway/id321980603 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/harlandwilliams Harbling Shirts: https://www.harbling.com Official Website: https://www.harlandwilliams.com Twitter :https://twitter.com/harlandhighway?lang=en More CONO: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/cono/?hl=en Youtube: youtube.com/@cono?si=CnZZCqI8DGi9vHoT Tiktok: https://www.tiktok.com/@cono #podcast #harlandwilliams Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/harlandwilliams Harbling Shirts: https://www.harbling.com Official Website: https://www.harlandwilliams.com Twitter :https://twitter.com/harlandhighway?lang=en More CONO: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/cono/?hl=enYoutube: youtube.com/@cono?si=CnZZCqI8DGi9vHoTTiktok: https://www.tiktok.com/@cono #podcast #harlandwilliams Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Brent Donnelly joins Matt Zeigler to explain how professional traders build a durable edge through risk management, trading psychology, probabilistic thinking, and creative market analysis.Drawing from his new book, Trade Outside the Box: Advanced Thinking for Professional Traders, Brent breaks down why trading strategies decay, why rationality beats intelligence, how to avoid risk of ruin, and how lessons from poker, behavioral finance, and real-world experience can improve decision-making.Trade Outside the Box: Advanced Thinking for Professional Tradershttps://amzn.to/4h9bi3eBrent Donnelly on Xhttps://x.com/donnelly_brentSpectra Marketshttps://www.spectramarkets.comTopics covered:Why fundamentals, technical analysis, behavioral finance, and quantitative methods are necessary but not sufficient for trading successHow traders can develop an edge by connecting markets to poker, psychology, biology, auto racing, and video gamesWhy profitable trading strategies decay as more investors discover and copy themHow changing volatility regimes force traders to adapt their style and avoid becoming a one-trick ponyWhy mismatching a long-term investment thesis with a short-term stop loss can destroy a good ideaHow trading journals and P&L data help separate normal variance from a broken processWhy the house money effect can make traders more reckless after large gainsWhy rationality, flexibility, and expected value matter more than credentials or raw intelligenceHow Bayesian thinking helps traders update probabilities and fight confirmation biasThe difference between independent thinking and blind contrarianismWhy avoiding risk of ruin, protecting family and health, and defining success beyond money are essential to a sustainable trading careerTimestamps:00:00 Introduction to Brent Donnelly and Trade Outside the Box04:00 Why smart analysts often produce fully priced trade ideas08:00 Poker discipline and avoiding boredom trades12:00 How lead-lag correlation trading lost its edge16:35 Matching a trade's stop loss to its time horizon21:00 What trading data reveals about win rates and expected value25:00 The house money effect and the danger of overearning29:00 Why rational traders beat smarter traders33:00 Strong opinions weakly held and Bayesian updating37:00 Curating a balanced diet of bullish and bearish information41:00 Using creativity and outside disciplines to find market edge45:11 Avoiding risk of ruin and the lessons of Jesse Livermore50:29 The Serenity Prayer and focusing on what traders can control55:00 Choosing family and health over markets59:00 Why your first thought may not be your ownLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms, or their clients.

On this episode of the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler examine how the AI capital spending boom, an unpredictable Federal Reserve, reduced corporate reporting and factor investing are reshaping markets.They break down Ben Hunt's warning about private credit and AI infrastructure, Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig on the loss of Fed forward guidance, Wes Gray on why value may matter more than company size, and Rupert Mitchell on the rate hike that could end the cycle.Topics covered:Why the AI capital spending boom is forcing hyperscalers to borrow money and issue equityHow private credit and private equity are financing the AI infrastructure buildoutWhy a slowdown in AI CapEx could create broader financial system riskHow government borrowing and AI investment are crowding out capital and pushing interest rates higherThe impact of data center electricity demand on consumers and the broader economyHow Kevin Warsh's no-forward-guidance policy changes Federal Reserve expectationsWhy greater front-end interest rate volatility matters for floating-rate debt and private creditThe debate over replacing quarterly corporate reports with six-month reportingWes Gray's argument that value, not small-company size, is the real source of higher expected returnsRupert Mitchell's death shot framework for how a final central bank rate hike can end a market cycleTimestamps:00:00 AI spending, Fed uncertainty and this week's market themes05:07 How the AI buildout crowds out capital across the economy10:44 No Fed forward guidance and a new era of policy uncertainty15:48 Why six-month corporate reporting could hurt investors20:30 Wes Gray on the small-cap premium24:42 Why value matters more than company size28:57 How a surprise rate hike could break risk assets34:05 Global value investing and pairing different investor perspectivesLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Matt Zeigler to explain how surging AI capital spending, mega-cap share issuance and expensive U.S. technology stocks could reshape global equity leadership. They discuss the case for equal-weight stocks, energy equities, gold, UK small caps, Uzbekistan and Turkey, along with the risk that a surprise Federal Reserve hike could trigger a broader unwind in leveraged markets.Rupert Mitchell on Xhttps://x.com/SquirrelMacroBlind Squirrel Macrohttps://www.blindsquirrelmacro.comTopics coveredWhy the S&P 500 versus the rest of the world remains Rupert's chart of truthHow the Bushy portfolio uses international equities, gold, commodities and hedges as an alternative to a traditional 60/40 portfolioWhy positive stock-bond correlation has weakened the diversification case for long-duration bondsHow AI data center spending, mega IPOs and new share issuance could reverse the buyback-driven de-equitization of U.S. marketsWhy Rupert is long the equal-weight S&P 500 and short the Nasdaq 100 as market leadership broadensHow China's growing power in oil markets may create a price collar that supports energy producers, refiners, midstream companies and offshore servicesWhat a surprise Federal Reserve hike or death shot could mean for technology stocks, private credit, private equity and leveraged risk assetsWhy deeply discounted UK small and mid-cap stocks may benefit from buybacks, takeovers, pension capital and investment trust activismThe opportunity in Uzbekistan's privatization program and the role of Templeton in improving governanceWhy Turkey's inflation-tested companies, strategic geography and cheap valuations may offer an attractive emerging-market setupTimestamps00:00 Intro04:00 Bushy portfolio changes across energy, commodities and precious metals08:54 How AI capital spending and equity issuance threaten the buyback era13:00 Equal-weight valuations and the long RSP, short QQQ trade17:02 China's oil price collar and the energy equity re-rating22:18 The Fed death shot and the danger of an unpriced hike30:06 Peak populism and the historic valuation gap in UK equities34:10 M&A, pension capital and UK investment trusts38:50 Uzbekistan's privatization opportunity43:39 Turkish equities, inflation and geopolitical leverage49:13 Why stress-tested businesses may offer better value53:39 Blind Squirrel Macro and Benny and the SquirrelLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

On the latest 100 Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to revisit the 25th anniversary edition of The Warren Buffett Portfolio and explain why volatility is not the same as investment risk.They discuss concentrated portfolios, active share, business valuation, behavioral finance, complex adaptive systems, and Warren Buffett's warning that the market's casino can overwhelm its cathedral.The Warren Buffett Portfolio – 25th Anniversary Editionhttps://amzn.to/3TVXoruRobert Hagstrom on Xhttps://x.com/RobertGHagstromEquity Compasshttps://www.equitycompass.com/Topics coveredWhy Markowitz's definition of risk as variance shaped modern portfolio theoryWhy Buffett views permanent capital loss, not volatility, as the real investing riskWhat Hagstrom's study of 3,000 portfolios revealed about concentration and market outperformanceThe difference between know-something investors and investors better served by indexingHow benchmark awareness creates closet indexers and weakens active managementWhat loss aversion and prospect theory explain about investor behaviorWhy Darwin, William James, and complex adaptive systems offer better models for marketsBuffett's cathedral and casino metaphor for business ownership versus speculationThe El Farol problem, Jim Simons, and why successful market models stop workingWhy options trading, leveraged ETFs, and record single-stock dispersion may be strengthening the casinoHow to evaluate portfolios using cash flow, return on invested capital, and look-through earningsWhy permanent capital and System 2 thinking are essential for focused investingTimestamps00:00 Intro04:00 Why Markowitz defined risk as variance11:47 What 3,000 portfolios revealed about concentration17:17 Know-something versus know-nothing investors22:23 Kahneman, loss aversion, and modern portfolio theory26:58 Darwin, pragmatism, and adaptive markets32:28 Buffett's cathedral and casino metaphor37:37 The El Farol problem and why markets resist prediction42:08 Why investors crave market forecasts46:16 Why investing is most intelligent when businesslike51:38 Record stock dispersion, options, and leveraged ETFs56:00 Measuring portfolio progress through business economics01:00:43 Why permanent capital enables focus investing01:04:43 How markets survive widespread investor mistakesLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms, or their clients.

This week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines when AI spending will translate into measurable end-user ROI, why the U.S. business cycle may now produce fewer recessions, and how Federal Reserve policy could combine lower short-term rates with a smaller balance sheet. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down insights from Andy Constan, Azeem Azhar and Aahan Menon on AI productivity, business-cycle shifts, asset prices and the tradeoffs between Wall Street and Main Street.Topics coveredWhy subsidized AI tokens may be masking the true economics of end-user ROIThe difference between personal productivity gains, cost savings and measurable business profitsHow the transition from electric light bulbs to assembly lines explains AI process redesignWhy adding more copilots cannot turn a legacy company into an AI-native enterpriseThe productivity J-curve and why promising AI investments may initially look unprofitableHow the shift from manufacturing toward services and technology changed the business cycleWhy housing and industrial indicators may be less reliable signals for the broader economyHow consumer conditions, equity wealth and technology investment increasingly drive growthWhy stronger balance sheets and policy intervention may be reducing recession frequencyHow lower short-term rates and a smaller Fed balance sheet could affect asset prices and inequalityTimestamps00:00 Intro and this week's triple-A lineup04:00 AI's long-term promise and medium-term transition risk08:18 Azeem Azhar on electricity as a model for AI adoption12:28 Why more copilots cannot create an AI-native company16:39 How services and technology changed the business cycle21:20 Why policy intervention may be smoothing recessions26:00 How Fed policy could rebalance Wall Street and Main Street30:05 Closing thoughts and where to follow Excess ReturnsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Wes Gray joins us to explain how factor investors should think about high market valuations, S&P 500 concentration, value investing, small caps, artificial intelligence and the behavioral challenge of staying invested for the long term. He also breaks down Section 351 ETF exchanges, including how appreciated portfolios can move into an ETF without an immediate taxable sale, why direct-indexing portfolios are a major use case and how the ETF wrapper is reshaping asset management.Wes Gray on Xhttps://x.com/alphaarchitectAlpha Architecthttps://alphaarchitect.comETF Architecthttps://etfarchitect.comLong-Only Value Investing: Does Size Matter?https://alphaarchitect.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/AA-JBISFactorInvesting22LongOnlyValueInvesting.pdfEven God Would Get Fired as an Active Investorhttps://alphaarchitect.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Even_God_Would_Get_Fired_as_an_Active_Investor.pdfTopics coveredWhy high valuations may lower long-term expected returns without providing a reliable market-timing signalHow S&P 500 concentration creates a major large-cap, quality and growth factor betWhy earnings and operating income may be better value metrics than book-to-market in an intangible economyWhy valuation may matter more than company size for long-only value investorsHow unprofitable companies and low-quality stocks can distort small-cap value indexesWhether AI has changed the historical relationship between growth and value investingHow AI may eliminate short-term trading edges while leaving long-horizon opportunities intactWhy even an investor with perfect foresight could suffer severe drawdowns and get firedHow passive investing flows may affect market prices and factor returnsHow Section 351 exchanges can solve problems created by appreciated SMAs, tax-loss harvesting and direct indexingThe 25/50 diversification rules, cost-basis transfer and tax-deferral mechanics of ETF conversionsWhy assets continue moving from mutual funds, hedge funds and separate accounts into ETFsWhy enduring underperformance may be necessary to earn higher long-term returnsTimestamps00:00 Alpha Architect, ETF Architect and building an ETF platform04:00 Can factor investors time a market bubble?08:03 Intangible assets and the problems with book-to-market13:42 The quality problem inside small-cap value indexes18:18 Has technology changed the growth-versus-value equation?23:25 Can AI create lasting investment alpha?27:42 Are investors behaving better today?34:39 How Section 351 ETF exchanges work39:48 The diversification rules for tax-deferred ETF conversions44:34 How cost basis and deferred taxes carry into the ETF49:07 Mutual fund, hedge fund and SMA conversions54:13 Why investors should embrace underperformanceLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, joins Jack Forehand to explain what systematic macro data says about economic growth, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, oil prices, AI investment and the outlook for stocks and bonds. They examine why nominal GDP remains stable, why traditional recession indicators have failed, how consumer dissaving is boosting corporate profits, and why today's unusually balanced regime probabilities make this a difficult time for large macro bets.Aahan Menon on Xhttps://x.com/AahanPrometheusPrometheus Researchhttps://www.prometheus-macro.comTopics coveredWhy geopolitical volatility and disrupted market trends make concentrated macro bets unusually difficultWhat Prometheus Research's daily GDP nowcast says about stable nominal growthWhy AI capital spending matters but consumer spending still drives the US economyHow household dissaving and the wealth effect are supporting corporate profitsWhy the economy and Federal Reserve policy may be increasingly sensitive to stock pricesHow oil prices are driving inflation volatility and changing expectations for interest ratesWhy demand-driven inflation is more persistent than supply-driven inflationHow technology investment has weakened traditional recession and business-cycle indicatorsThe value and limitations of timing Federal Reserve policy with systematic macro dataWhat macro regime probabilities, valuations and expected returns suggest for stocks, bonds and diversificationTimestamps00:02 Why this is a difficult time for big macro bets05:02 A daily GDP nowcast shows stable nominal growth09:21 Consumer dissaving and the future economic risk13:23 The wealth effect linking stocks, spending and profits17:52 Oil prices and extreme inflation volatility22:23 Separating persistent demand inflation from supply shocks27:27 Why traditional recession indicators stopped working32:55 How technology is changing the business cycle37:42 Why timing Federal Reserve cycles matters for bond returns42:28 The limitations of alternative data and short histories47:33 Macro regime forecasts and expected returns51:54 Why the macro backdrop still supports equities56:19 Why investors can finally get paid to diversifyLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Azeem Azhar joins Kai Wu to break down the real economics of the AI boom, including the $110 billion demand base, where profits may accrue across chips, hosting, foundation models and applications, and whether spending can translate into enterprise productivity. They discuss AI infrastructure bottlenecks, open-source competition, vertical integration, organizational redesign, software moats, human judgment and the signals investors can use to identify companies turning AI adoption into durable competitive advantage.The State of the AI Economyhttps://intelligence.exponentialview.co/assets/ev-state-of-ai-economy-2026.pdfWhy AI Isn't Showing Up on Your Bottom Linehttps://www.exponentialview.co/p/why-ai-isnt-showing-up-on-your-bottom-lineAzeem Azhar on Xhttps://x.com/azeemExponential Viewhttps://www.exponentialview.co/Topics CoveredThe size and growth rate of real generative AI demandHow the AI stack divides between chips, hosting, foundation models and applicationsWhy memory and energized data centers may be the key AI infrastructure bottlenecksOpen-source models, proprietary pricing and enterprise assuranceVertical integration and foundation model labs moving into applicationsHow AI value could flow to consumers rather than infrastructure providersWhy AI productivity requires workflow and organizational redesignWhat investors can learn from earnings calls, hiring and enterprise spendingForward-deployed engineers, consulting firms and vendor lock-inWhich intangible business moats strengthen or weaken as intelligence becomes abundantTimestamps00:00 The economics and sustainability of the AI boom06:34 Mapping the four layers of the AI stack10:43 Vertical integration and cross-stack competition15:31 Why memory is becoming an AI infrastructure bottleneck20:01 Open-source models versus proprietary AI24:36 Why foundation model labs are moving up and down the stack28:51 Could AI profits become consumer surplus?33:00 Why more copilots cannot create an AI-native company37:17 Job postings and the intangible investments behind AI adoption44:16 Can forward-deployed engineers transform legacy companies?49:15 Which business moats strengthen or weaken in the AI economy?54:20 Do foundation models really have network effects?59:00 Why judgment, verification and human provenance become more valuable01:04:56 The exponential gap in data centers and education01:10:06 How Azeem uses AI to deepen research and generate ideasLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

In this episode of the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down lessons from their conversations with Market Wizards author Jack Schwager and Data 4 the People founder Eric Pachman. They explore why the unemployment rate can hide labor market weakness, how aging and care jobs are reshaping employment, why elite traders survive by following strict risk management rules and whether artificial intelligence can ever solve financial markets.Topics covered:Why the headline unemployment rate can miss a deteriorating labor marketHow falling labor force participation changes the meaning of jobs dataWhy prime-age workers leaving the labor force matters for economic growth and consumptionThe limitations of relying on long-standing BLS and Federal Reserve benchmarksHow an anonymous trader turned a small account into roughly half a billion dollarsWhy trading discipline, stop losses and risk management matter more than being rightWhat the Carvana short squeeze reveals about the danger of breaking your own rulesHow aging demographics are concentrating job growth in healthcare and social assistanceWhy home healthcare and elder care workers are essential but often poorly paidWhether AI can generate market alpha or simply raise the baseline quality of investment toolsTimestamps:00:00 Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler become market wizards04:24 What falling labor force participation hides08:55 Simon Russo chooses trading over music13:00 How ignoring stops could wipe out a fortune17:05 Messi and the rule sets behind elite performance21:05 Aging America and the rise of low-paid care jobs25:05 Why financial markets are uniquely difficult for AI29:07 How AI raises the floor without creating super-investorsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

On the Latest First Principles, Andy Constan explains what the options market is signaling about the AI and semiconductor boom, why he believes earnings expectations have outrun the size of the economy, and where the next risks may emerge. We discuss speculative call buying, single-stock volatility, AI capital spending, consumer dissaving, the Fed put, Kevin Warsh's monetary policy framework, and the looming reset of US tariffs.Topics covered:* Why parabolic moves in AI infrastructure and semiconductor stocks may reflect a speculative bubble* What rising single-stock volatility and unusually low market correlations reveal beneath a calm index* Why out-of-the-money calls became more expensive than puts and what that says about investor positioning* How investors can hedge concentrated stock gains by selling calls and buying protective puts* Why the AI bubble may be hiding in earnings expectations rather than traditional valuation multiples* Andy's economic pie framework and why projected corporate profits may exceed the GDP available to support them* How AI competition, open-source models, job displacement and subsidized token usage affect the return on AI investment* Why capital spending and consumer dissaving are supporting economic growth, and where those drivers could weaken* Whether the Federal Reserve could eventually buy equity ETFs and the inflationary consequences of a permanent Fed put* How lower short-term rates and a smaller Fed balance sheet could rebalance Main Street and Wall Street* Why expiring Section 122 tariffs could create a near-term shift in inflation, growth and the federal deficitTimestamps:00:02 Why the options market is flashing a warning on AI stocks04:02 Extreme stock dispersion beneath a calm market08:49 The signals of a speculative call-buying frenzy13:00 How to hedge a stock position without calling the top18:36 Why earnings expectations may be the real AI bubble23:00 The economic pie cannot support every company's forecasts27:00 AI job displacement and the widening gap between winners and losers31:59 How capital spending and consumer dissaving are sustaining growth36:00 When the return on AI investment starts to matter40:26 Could the Fed buy stocks in the next financial crisis?44:53 How Kevin Warsh might respond when markets and employment collapse48:58 Lower rates, a smaller balance sheet and wealth inequality52:59 The tariff deadline investors may be overlookingLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jack Schwager joins Excess Returns to discuss Market Wizards: The Next Generation and the extraordinary young traders profiled in the newest installment of the Market Wizards series.He explains how traders turned small accounts into fortunes, survived devastating losses, built exceptional risk-adjusted records and adapted from day trading to longer-term strategies, while revealing the psychology, risk management and commitment behind elite trading performance.Jack Schwager on Xhttps://x.com/jackschwagerMarket Wizards: The Next Generationhttps://amzn.to/4psEOmHTopics coveredHow video games, prop trading firms and modern technology shaped a new generation of tradersHow Jack Schwager finds candidates and verifies extraordinary trading track recordsWhy return-to-risk measures can reveal more than the Sharpe ratioLukas Froelich's astonishing 2020 performance and the limits of compounding and scalabilitySimon Rousseau's journey from a $40,000 borrowed account to nearly $500 millionHow breaking risk rules led to massive losses even after extraordinary successKristjan Kullamägi's path from security guard to more than $100 million after repeated account blowupsPhil Goedeker's success with short selling, option selling and unusually strong risk controlRick Bandazian Jr.'s merger arbitrage edge and more than a decade without a losing monthWhy financial markets may remain uniquely difficult for artificial intelligence to solveLance Breitstein's apprenticeship, deliberate practice and shift from day trading to longer-term positionsWhat traders and long-term investors can learn about talent, discipline, persistence and human natureTimestamps00:00 Intro to Market Wizards: The Next Generation04:33 How Jack finds exceptional traders and how the trading ecosystem changed09:15 Auditing Lukas Froelich's extraordinary 2020 returns14:03 Simon Rousseau: turning $40,000 into nearly $500 million18:42 The $50 million Carvana loss and the danger of breaking trading rules22:54 Kristjan Kullamägi: from security guard to more than $100 million28:36 Phil Goedeker and the risk of negative asymmetry strategies32:41 Hedging option risk during the Liberation Day market selloff37:34 Trading personality and Rick Bandazian Jr.'s no-loss record41:36 Can artificial intelligence ever become a Market Wizard?45:42 Lance Breitstein: choosing mentorship over a higher salary49:42 What long-term investors can learn from elite traders53:52 Innate talent, human nature and all-consuming commitment57:58 What the next generation of trading may look likeLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to explain why headline employment and inflation data may be giving investors an incomplete picture of the U.S. economy. They examine falling labor force participation, Medicaid-funded healthcare jobs, wage quality, oil and diesel shortages, consumer financial stress and how AI can make public data more useful.Eric Pachman on Xhttps://x.com/EricPachmanData 4 The Peoplehttps://www.data4thepeople.com/Main topics coveredWhy the establishment survey and household survey can tell very different labor market storiesWhy unemployment may miss weakening labor force participation and disappearing working-age AmericansThe decline in participation among older workers and menHow healthcare and Medicaid-funded care have become the engine of U.S. job growthWhy Medicaid cuts could create a major employment and consumer spending riskWhat occupational wage data reveals about the quality of new jobs and home healthcare payThe differences between CPI, PCE and core inflation and why the standard measures can be misleadingHow crude oil grades, refinery design and 3-2-1 crack spreads shape energy pricesWhy falling diesel inventories could spread inflation through transportation, food and retailWhat the single-income stress test reveals about household fragility, poverty and multiple-job holdersHow Data 4 The People is using AI to build public-interest data research toolsTimestamps00:00 Intro04:41 Why the unemployment rate can miss a labor crisis11:24 Healthcare jobs, aging America and the Medicaid care economy18:44 The Wage Ledger and the hidden quality of U.S. job growth24:18 Why inflation is moving higher30:48 Why every equity investor needs to understand oil36:00 Crack spreads and the refinery mismatch problem44:05 Why diesel is the inflation risk that matters most48:34 The single-income stress test and consumer fragility54:42 Data 4 The People's nonprofit mission59:00 Building an AI research assistant for public data01:03:37 Where to follow Eric and Data 4 The PeopleLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

This week Whitney draws attention to things we can actually be happy about because why hang by a thread when you can hang by two... Tickets for The Big Baby Tour https://www.whitneycummings.com SHOP: https://whitneycummings.com/index.html#store Thank you to our sponsors! iRestore Unlock your best hair & skin with @iRestorelaser and HUGE savings on iRESTORE with code WHITNEY at https://www.irestore.com/whitney #irestorepod Revolve Go to https://www.revolve.com/whitney to shop our faves and use code WHITNEY for 15% off your first order. Everything420 https://www.everything420.com  Use code CONO for 15% off and download the Everything420 app Booking.com Go on, book that trip - it's easy. Booking.com. Booking.yeah https://www.booking.com