Podcast appearances and mentions of bruce bueno

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Best podcasts about bruce bueno

Latest podcast episodes about bruce bueno

Deep Dive with Shawn C. Fettig
After America E10: The New World Disorder - Authoritarians and Global Chaos

Deep Dive with Shawn C. Fettig

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 1, 2024 45:06 Transcription Available


Can American democracy survive the encroachment of authoritarian regimes? This episode of "After America" tackles this critical question by exploring the global impact of authoritarianism and democratic backsliding. We take a close look at the establishment of post-World War II institutions like the United Nations, NATO, and the International Monetary Fund, and analyze how these have contributed to global peace and stability. Using case studies from Hungary, Russia, and China, we examine the erosion of democratic norms and its influence on foreign policies, posing the unsettling question of what might happen to global stability if key democratic nations, particularly the United States, were to falter.We highlight the rise of authoritarianism and its profound impact on global governance, and we dissect how regimes like Russia and China undermine multilateral institutions like the United Nations and the World Trade Organization, opting for unilateral actions and exclusive alliances. Through examples such as the Russia-China partnership and Russia's involvement in Venezuela and Syria, we reveal the mechanisms these regimes use to maintain power and challenge democratic nations. The potential consequences of an authoritarian shift in traditionally democratic countries, such as the United States, are scrutinized, underscoring the risks to global peace and stability.Finally, we ask the questiono - what would the world look like with a second Trump presidency? We discuss how European allies might scramble to forge new security pacts and bolster their defenses, and consider the broader risks of unilateral actions by an increasingly isolated United States. The episode concludes with a sobering look at the future of global stability in a world without American leadership, posing profound questions about the fragile state of democracy and the global order.Guests: Dr. Tom Ginsburg, Dr. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Stephen Marche, and Dr. James RobinsonCredits:JFK Speech: Courtesy of the JFK LibraryTrump on NATO: Courtesy of CSPANInfados - Kevin MacLeodDark Tales: Music by Rahul Bhardwaj from Pixabay-------------------------Follow Deep Dive:InstagramYouTube Email: deepdivewithshawn@gmail.com

Atemporal
#137 - Gabriela Febres-Cordero - El Caracazo, Chávez, Fidel, y paralelos entre Venezuela y Colombia

Atemporal

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 10, 2024 118:50


Gabriela Febres-Cordero fue ministra de comercio exterior de Venezuela y es la fundadora de United for Colombia (https://unitedforcolombia.org/). Los restos de la revolución - Catalina Lobo-Guerrero (https://bukz.co/products/los-restos-de-la-revolucion) El manual del dictador - Bruce Bueno y Alastair Smith (https://bukz.co/products/el-manual-del-dictador-9788418859786) Recibe mi newsletter: https://acevedoandres.com/newsletter/ Capitulos: 00:00 Intro 05:00 La curva de aprendizaje venezolana 09:34 Antes de la elección de Chávez 11:19 Militares omnipresentes 17:00 Devaluación de la moneda y descontento social 21:36 Modus Operandi del régimen 26:04 Los años abundantes 33:08 El país que le toca a Carlos Andrés Pérez 38:44 La situación económica y la deuda externa 41:45 Tensión entre economía y política 44:51 ¿Cómo llega al ministerio? 46:54 La fractura entre el ejecutivo y el partido 51:67 (52:07) El Caracazo 1:00:05 Ser parte de un gobierno al que le hacen un golpe de estado 1:02:48 La partida secreta 1:13:04 El país iba por buen camino 1:15:11 Chávez y Fidel 1:20:51 Un sistema cooptado 1:22:43 ¿Cómo son los venezolanos vs los colombianos? 1:29:00 ¿El petroleo es una maldición? 1:30:18 ¿Qué pasa con el cacao? 1:33:37 El venezolano cosmopolita 1:36:40 Las expropiaciones 1:39:15 Intento de golpe a Chávez 1:44:14 Las instituciones y la constituyente 1:51:46 La sociedad civil 1:55:29 María Corina Machado Apoyar Atemporal en Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/Atemporalpodcast

The Slavic Connexion
Resiliency, Corruption, and Uncertainty: Assessing Ukraine's Politics and Long-Term Prospects

The Slavic Connexion

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 3, 2024 31:32


On this episode, poitical scientist Serhiy Kudelia of Baylor University speaks with us about multiple topics on Ukraine from the prospects for Ukraine in the long-term, depending on continued western support, to the political effects of the war on Ukrainian leadership. Dr. Kudelia discusses the likelihood of Ukraine gaining any security guarantees from the West and under what conditions Putin might deploy strategic nuclear weapons or perhaps advance his military campaign beyond Ukraine. Thanks for listening! ABOUT THE GUEST SERHIY KUDELIA is associate professor of political science at Baylor University. His research and teaching deal with the study of political regimes, revolutions, armed conflicts and political violence. His primary research focus is Ukraine and his articles appeared in numerous academic journals including Comparative Politics, Journal of Democracy, Current History, Post-Soviet Affairs, Problems of Post-Communism, East European Politics and Societies, Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Demokratizatsiya, Russia in Global Affairs and in several edited volumes. His book "The Strategy of Campaigning: Lessons from Ronald Reagan and Boris Yeltsin" co-authored with Kiron Skinner, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Condoleezza Rice was published by the University of Michigan Press in 2007. Based on his extensive expertise in Ukrainian politics Dr. Kudelia has also offered commentary to a variety of news outlets including BBC, The Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Voice of America, Al-Jazeera, NHK, Radio China International, Open Democracy, The Moscow Times, Kyiv Post and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. PRODUCER'S NOTE: This episode was recorded on December 02, 2023 during the 2023 ASEEES Convention at the Philadelphia Marriott Downtown. If you have questions, comments, or would like to be a guest on the show, please email slavxradio@utexas.edu and we will be in touch! PRODUCTION CREDITS Co-Host: Basil Fedun Co-Host: Faith VanVleet Associate Producer: Cullan Bendig (@cullanwithana) Associate Producer: Sergio Glajar Assistant Producer: Taylor Helmcamp Assistant Producer: Eliza Fisher Social Media Manager: Faith VanVleet SlavX Editorial Director: Sam Parrish Supervising Producer: Nicholas Pierce Assistant EP: Misha Simanovskyy (@MSimanovskyy) Main Theme by Charlie Harper and additional background music by Nul Tiel Records, Kaleidoplasm, Broke for Free, Beat Mekanik, Joey Hendrixx) Executive Producer & Creator: Michelle Daniel (@MSDaniel) www.msdaniel.com DISCLAIMER: Texas Podcast Network is brought to you by The University of Texas at Austin. Podcasts are produced by faculty members and staffers at UT Austin who work with University Communications to craft content that adheres to journalistic best practices. The University of Texas at Austin offers these podcasts at no charge. Podcasts appearing on the network and this webpage represent the views of the hosts, not of The University of Texas at Austin. https://files.fireside.fm/file/fireside-uploads/images/9/9a59b135-7876-4254-b600-3839b3aa3ab1/P1EKcswq.png Special Guest: Serhiy Kudelia.

Fuera de Series
Sábado de spam - Estrenos de la semana:; Monarch: El legado de los monstruos, Asesinato en el fin del mundo, Basado en una historia real, Scott Pilgrim da el salto, The Killing Kind, Cómo se convirtieron en capos de la mafia, Marvel | Premiere

Fuera de Series

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 17, 2023 97:00


Todos los sábados en Fuera de Series recuperamos episodios publicados en los otros programas de nuestra cadena, que podéis encontrar en http://fueradeseries.com CJ Navas y Juan Francisco Bellón comentan, sin spoilers, los últimos estrenos de series de televisión y documentales. En este programa analizamos Monarch: El legado de los monstruos que trae el Monsterverso a Apple TV+, la miniserie Asesinato en el fin del mundo en Disney+, Basado en una historia real la nueva serie de Kaley Cuoco que llega a Movistar Plus+, Scott Pilgrim da el salto, la nueva versión de este clásico del cómic que llega a Netflix, de la mano de la docuserie Cómo se convirtieron en capos de la mafia, además Marvel: Icono de la historia que llega a Historia y actualidad, y recuperamos The Killing Kind que llegó la semana pasada a AXN NOW. PATROCINADOR:

unSILOed with Greg LaBlanc
273. Putting the Science into Political Science feat. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

unSILOed with Greg LaBlanc

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 24, 2023 38:21


In order to make an impact in the political world, we need to understand the science of politics, which means setting aside emotion and designing general models of strategic behavior and equilibrium drawn from game theory. These models may not only explain the past but predict the future.Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a political scientist, a professor at New York University, and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. He is also an author, and his latest work is titled, The Invention of Power: Popes, Kings, and the Birth of the West, where he argues that battles over power nearly 1000 years ago have had profound consequences for European history up to the present.Bruce and Greg discuss all of Bruce's books, how to use game theory, and to look at political science analytically, just like any other science. They go over the emergence of Western Europe, the rise and fall of dictatorships, and the possible fate of Vladimir Putin. *unSILOed Podcast is produced by University FM.*Episode Quotes:What makes game theory such a powerful tool for predicting present and future outcomes?13:45: ​​People think about their own well-being. They're interested in making themselves, their families so forth, better off. They understand that rivals, competitors are thinking exactly the same thing about themselves. So you have to figure out what should I do? And how will people competing with me react to what I do. Will I be worse off if I do what I really want, or will I be better off doing what I really want or doing something else? Well, that's the domain of game theory. It is how entities—in this case, people—interact strategically.Why dictators keep their inner circle small23:41: Dictators depend on very few people to keep them in power, so they have to keep those people sufficiently happy that they don't find a rival who could do better by them.One of the unfortunate features of political science02:52: If you want to improve the way the world works, from whatever lights you have as to what is an improvement. You can't do that without understanding what makes it come out the way it is so that you can figure out how to incentivize, by rewarding or punishing people, to behave differently. That requires science. It doesn't require opinion. It doesn't require speculation. It doesn't require partisanship.Rationality doesn't require that you're right21:08: Rationality doesn't require that you're right. It just requires that your actions are motivated by your beliefs about what are the things that you should do now.Show Links:Recommended Resources:Perfect Bayesian equilibriumThe Concordat of WormsGuest Profile:Faculty Profile at  NYUProfessional Profile at  American Academy of Arts and SciencesBruce Bueno de Mesquita on LinkedInBruce Bueno de Mesquita on TEDTalkHis Work:Bruce Bueno de Mesquita on Google ScholarArticles for HooverArticles on The AtlanticThe Invention of Power: Popes, Kings, and the Birth of the WestThe Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good PoliticsThe Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the FutureWar and Reason: Domestic and International Imperatives

Eyewitness History
"The Dictator's Handbook" Author and Josh Discuss How Dictatorial Regimes Are Formed

Eyewitness History

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 16, 2023 55:28


Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a political scientist, professor at New York University, and senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution.He specializes in international relations, foreign policy, and nation building. He is one of the originators of selectorate theory, and was also the director of New York University's Alexander Hamilton Center for Political Economy from 2006 to 2016.Bueno de Mesquita is discussed in an August 16, 2009 Sunday New York Times Magazine article entitled "Can Game Theory Predict When Iran Will Get the Bomb?" In December 2008 he was also the subject of a History Channel two-hour special entitled "The Next Nostradamus" and has been featured on the 2021 Netflix series How to Become a Tyrant.He is the author of many books, including The Dictator's Handbook, co-authored with Alastair Smith, and the book The Invention of Power.

Swampside Chats
#153 - "The Logic of Political Survival" (Part 1)

Swampside Chats

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 28, 2023 54:03


Ezri and Jake revisit the selectorate theory of politics and discuss the first half of "The Logic of Political Survival" by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson, and James D. Morrow.

logic mesquita ezri bruce bueno alastair smith political survival
The Jordan Harbinger Show
795: Alastair Smith | The Dictator's Handbook Part Two

The Jordan Harbinger Show

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 16, 2023 79:26 Transcription Available


Alastair Smith is the Bernhardt Denmark Chair of International Relations at New York University, professor of political science in the Wilf Family Department of Politics, and co-author (with Bruce Bueno de Mesquita) of The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics. [This is part two of a two-part episode. Find part one here!] What We Discuss with Alastair Smith: How do dictators come to power and remain in power even when their policies serve only themselves and not the people under their "leadership?" Why do the majority of people living under dictatorships suffer in impoverished squalor, and how does foreign aid empower these dictators rather than help the general populace? Why do dictators consistently hate freedom, the media, and seemingly their own citizens? Why does bad behavior so often make for good politics — even in the most progressive nations? Are our own governments beyond saving, or can we use lessons learned here to make them work for us? And much more... Full show notes and resources can be found here: jordanharbinger.com/795 This Episode Is Brought To You By Our Fine Sponsors: jordanharbinger.com/deals Sign up for Six-Minute Networking — our free networking and relationship development mini course — at jordanharbinger.com/course! Like this show? Please leave us a review here — even one sentence helps! Consider including your Twitter handle so we can thank you personally!

The Jordan Harbinger Show
794: Alastair Smith | The Dictator's Handbook Part One

The Jordan Harbinger Show

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 14, 2023 71:33 Transcription Available


Alastair Smith is the Bernhardt Denmark Chair of International Relations at New York University, professor of political science in the Wilf Family Department of Politics, and co-author (with Bruce Bueno de Mesquita) of The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics. [This is part one of a two-part episode. Please check back later in the week for part two!] What We Discuss with Alastair Smith: How do dictators come to power and remain in power even when their policies serve only themselves and not the people under their "leadership?" Why do the majority of people living under dictatorships suffer in impoverished squalor, and how does foreign aid empower these dictators rather than help the general populace? Why do dictators consistently hate freedom, the media, and seemingly their own citizens? Why does bad behavior so often make for good politics — even in the most progressive nations? Are our own governments beyond saving, or can we use lessons learned here to make them work for us? And much more... Full show notes and resources can be found here: jordanharbinger.com/794 This Episode Is Brought To You By Our Fine Sponsors: jordanharbinger.com/deals Sign up for Six-Minute Networking — our free networking and relationship development mini course — at jordanharbinger.com/course! Like this show? Please leave us a review here — even one sentence helps! Consider including your Twitter handle so we can thank you personally!

TBS eFM This Morning
0117 [News Focus 2] NATO-EU Joint Declaration Announcement

TBS eFM This Morning

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 17, 2023 23:07


나토-EU 공동선언문 발표Guest: Prof. Jonathan Grady, the Principal of The Canary Group, the Stern School of Business at New York University, and a Protégé of Bruce Bueno de MesquitaSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Ideas Having Sex
18. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita - The Invention of Power

Ideas Having Sex

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 7, 2022


Bruce Bueno de Mesquita presents a novel explanation for western exceptionalism.Today's book: The Invention of Power: Popes Kings, and the Birth of the WestFollow @IdeasHavingSexx on twitterOther works by BruceContact Bruce: bruce.buenodemesquita@nyu.eduBruce's recommended reading: The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism, by Max Weber, and The WEIRDest People in the World: How the West Became Psychologically Peculiar and Particularly Prosperous, by Joseph HenrichEconomic growth, Catholicism, religion, church and state, democracy, revolution, politics, Trump

donald trump spirit birth capitalism invention catholicism mesquita max weber protestant ethic weirdest people bruce bueno particularly prosperous west became psychologically peculiar bruce bueno de mesquita
Chinese Revolutions: A History Podcast
S01E30 Taiping Rebellion: Zeng Guofan Builds His Army

Chinese Revolutions: A History Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 6, 2022 30:49


S01E30 Taiping Rebellion: Zeng Guofan Builds His Army In this episode, we look at the process that Zeng Guofan went through to build his army. When he was in Hunan to mourn the death of his mother, in 1853 he accepted the mission from the emperor to take charge of military affairs in the province. Ordinarily, the Han elements of the Qing army had a divided command structure to keep them from uniting against the Manchurian dynasty. Due to the extreme emergency situation, the emperor gave Zeng Guofan unified command authority. Zeng Guofan was not a military man, but he set up a plan based on discipline and he insisted on "kill or be killed" approaches to training. We draw upon Autumn in the Heavenly Kingdom: China, the West, and the Epic Story of the Taiping Civil War by Stephen R. Platt. Including insights from The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alistair Smith. If You'd Like to Support the Podcast Subscribe, share, leave a rating. Give once, give monthly at www.buymeacoffee.com/crpodcast Subscribe to the substack newsletter at https://chineserevolutions.substack.com/ Also... Please reach out at chineserevolutions@gmail.com and let me know what you think!

Game Changer - the game theory podcast
Talking about a revolution – how Game Theory can predict the stability of political systems | with Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Game Changer - the game theory podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 26, 2022 41:10


In this episode, Bruce shows us how Game Theory can be successfully applied in the field of political science. In particular, we discuss the explanatory and predictive power of the Selectorate Theory, which analyses political systems regarding their properties as democracy or autocracy. Bruce explains the underlying game theoretic model of this theory, how he obtains the data, and which conclusions he can draw from the results, including predictions on coups or revolutions. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is the Julius Silver professor at New York University and emeritus senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. He is a political scientist, specializing in policy forecasting, political economy, and international security policy. He is also the author of many books, like “The predictioneer's game” and “The dictator's handbook”, among others. You can read more on the Selectorate Theory here, here and here, and develop your own predictions using the online version of the Predictioneer's Game software.

Keen On Democracy
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita: Why China, Russia and Iran Aren't Democracies

Keen On Democracy

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 13, 2022 45:30


Hosted by Andrew Keen, Keen On features conversations with some of the world's leading thinkers and writers about the economic, political, and technological issues being discussed in the news, right now. In this episode, Andrew is joined by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, the author of The Invention of Power: Popes, Kings, and the Birth of the West. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is the Julius Silver Professor of Politics at New York University and was director of its Alexander Hamilton Center for Political Economy from 2006-2016. He is the author of twenty-three books, including The Dictator's Handbook. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Chinese Revolutions: A History Podcast
S0E02 Definition of Revolution in this Podcast

Chinese Revolutions: A History Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 3, 2022 24:19


Definition of Revolution We'll Be Using Here, we're going to discuss the definition of “revolution.” It's too easy to look at the CPC and think that's what the revolution produced. No, there were other Chinese revolutions, and before we look at what THOSE were, we'll look at what revolutions are. Inspiration for this Podcast Before I get away into my own program too much, I owe a debt of inspiration to the Revolutions podcast by Mike Duncan. He's gotten various suggestions to cover Chinese content. I know—I sent him one myself. Then I thought, I could do that! So here we are. Follow the link or search for it on your favorite podcast app. (Tell him I sent you!) Definition of Revolution Basically: The rules change The foundational facts change—or are seen to change Revolution is basically an opportunistic infection. It takes advantage of unusual weakness in a political system. My definitions are yoinked directly from the Wikipedia article on revolution. Definitions in this episode rely heavily on quotations in the Wikipedia article from the work of Jeff Goodwin. I quote him as "he's who Wikipedia quoted," but let's do him justice in the show notes. Personal site NYU faculty profile For the show notes... Political Revolution Revolutions are planned. There's a smaller group of people organizing it. They follow a popular impulse. Most ordinary people don't have the capacity to plan, so it's this small group that drives things. Social Revolution Who's in charge changes, why they're in charge changes. Family, business, community—it all changes. Social revolution often accompanies political revolution. Insights from The Dictator's Handbook When I prepared this episode, I used a summary from this website to get my notes straight. Thanks, Mr. Sustainability! The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith provides foundational insights into why China was so ... revolutionary from the early mid-1800s to 1949. These are the rules that Chinese rulers couldn't somehow keep: Rules of Political Power (Copied directly from Mr. Sustainability, just to be clear.) Politics is about getting and keeping power, not the welfare of the people. Political power is best ensured and maintained when you depend on few essential cronies to attain and retain office (dictators are often in a better position to retain power than democrats). Depending on a small coalition of cronies allows leaders to tax at higher rates. Dictators have the most power when the essential cronies are easily replaceable. Dictator's Rules Keep the winning coalition as small as possible: you will need fewer people to stay in power, have higher control over them, and you will save on graft (smaller number also mean it easier for them to organize a putsch however). Keep the nominal selectors as large as possible: so that you can easily replace troublemakers among the influentials and essentials, and sends the essentials a message that they better behave. Control the flow of revenues. Pay your essentials just enough to keep them loyal: and keep them away from the source of money. Don't take money out of the essentials' pockets to make the people better: dictators depend on essentials, not on average citizens. Ways to Remove an Incumbent (and Chinese revolutions followed these very regularly) Wait for him to die. Strike at the right opportunity (old leader, a faux pas, a financial crisis). Make an offer and/or convince the current supporters to switch sides. Overthrow the government through internal revolution or war with a foreign power. So... Why Chinese Revolutions Kept Happening Ways to remove an incumbent kept opening up until the Communist Party nailed things down. Revolutions kept happening because there were problems the authorities: couldn't solve wouldn't solve Will Durant in The Story of Civilization: Our Oriental Heritage stated in reference to the founding of a Japanese dynasty that a founder uses up half the genius of a dynasty in founding it. When we get to the CPC, it will be interesting to see what a succession-by-adoption opens up. If You'd Like to Support the Podcast Subscribe, share, leave a rating. THIS IS FREE! Give once, give monthly at www.buymeacoffee.com/crpodcast Subscribe to the substack newsletter at https://chineserevolutions.substack.com/ Also... Please reach out at chineserevolutions@gmail.com and let me know what you think!

Made You Think
71: Taking and Keeping Power: The Dictator's Handbook

Made You Think

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 25, 2022 120:28


“Democracies are not lucky. They do not attract civic-minded leaders by chance. Rather, they attract survival-oriented leaders who understand that, given their dependence on many essentials, they can only come to and stay in power if they figure out the right basket of public goods to provide.” In this episode of Made You Think, Nat and Neil are joined by Adil Majid to discuss their key takeaways from The Dictator's Handbook by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. The Dictator's Handbook delivers five rules for staying in power and succeeding within the political system. In this episode of Made You Think, we cover a wide range of topics including: How dictators get in power and stay in power The Selectorate theory Taxation and why leaders are so fond of taxes FIFA, Olympics, and giving bribes for more power Decentralized finance as an alternative to the current financial system   And much more. Please enjoy, and make sure to follow Nat, Neil, and Adil on Twitter and share your thoughts on the episode. Links from the Episode Mentioned in the Show Episode 7: A Crash Course in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Cryptocurrency (0:43) Episode 33: An Animal of No Significance: Sapiens by Yuval Noah Harari – Part I (1:25) Episode 34: Money, Power, and God: Sapiens by Yuval Noah Harari – Part II (1:40) Selectorate theory (4:57) Assets of the Federal Reserve (22:00) Ba'ath Party; Saddam Hussein (29:05) Caliphate (54:11) Arab Spring (1:11:10) Democracy Index 2017 (1:12:28) ConstitutionDAO (1:16:01) Corruption in FIFA (1:15:43) Bribing in Olympics (1:15:43) Marijuana episode (1:24:27) A Tale of Two Talebs (1:33:19) Ledger (1:59:31)   Books Mentioned The 48 Laws of Power (2:09) (Nat's Book Notes) The Sovereign Individual (4:36) (Book Episode) (Nat's Book Notes) Seeing Like a State (4:37) (Nat's Book Notes) Antifragile (1:31:38) (Book Episode) (Nat's Book Notes) The Bitcoin Standard (1:34:26)   People Mentioned Robert Mugabe (10:32) Elizabeth Warren (12:49) Bernie Sanders (12:50) Elon Musk (13:10) Ron DeSantis (15:13) Donald Trump (15:42) Machiavelli (23:45) Fidel Castro (41:41) Che Guevara (41:47) Rasputin (42:48) Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (1:11:40) Julias Caesar (1:21:25) Nassim Taleb (1:32:23) Gary Vaynerchuk (1:33:53)   Show Notes 1:10 Today we are joined by Adil Majid. You may remember him from some of our previous episodes (#7, #33, #34). Today's book is the Dictator's Handbook, a book that shares the rules of the game in politics exactly how it is. What we think is good or bad in politics may be the exact opposite. 3:27 Relying on a larger coalition of individuals results in a more equitable and just system. How this idea ties in with decentralized finance. 4:57 Adil talks about the Selectorate theory and the 3 different groups: the nominal selectorate, the real selectorate, and the winning coalition. The primary goal of a leader is to stay in power and to do this, they must keep the support from members of the winning coalition. 9:59 The way our voting system in the U.S. narrows who's vote counts. Politicians can play the game of staying in power by understanding which votes they need. "When addressing politics, we must accustom ourselves to think and speak about the actions and interests of specific, named leaders rather than thinking and talking about fuzzy ideas like the national interest, the common good, and the general welfare. Once we think about what helps leaders come to and stay in power, we will also begin to see how to fix politics. Politics, like all of life, is about individuals, each motivated to do what is good for them, not what is good for others.” To stay in power, politicians are not making decisions about general welfare and the common good. Bueno de Mesquita notes that it's all about what's good for them, not for us. 12:33 This brings up the question, why do politicians seem to believe things so extremely? An outside-in approach: A candidate needs to appeal to the extreme then come back to the middle and more neutral voters to win a general election. 18:25 Questionable social media sprees from politicians, and how it could be a tool for covering something up. Inflation and stimulus checks. 24:42 There are five basic rules leaders can use to succeed in any system.  Rule 1: Keep your winning coalition as small as possible. Having a small coalition is to your advantage in taking and keeping power. There are fewer people to keep happy, and keeping them happy is a key to staying in power. 30:50 There are so many institutions in government but not all of them are necessary in keeping and maintaining power. Corruption as an essential political tool.  "The causal ties run both ways: power leads to corruption and corruption leads to power." 33:59 Informational asymmetry between members of the winning coalition and the nominal electorate. Transparency within companies; there's certain information that is only shared with the leaders that is not available to all within the company.  37:38 Rule 2: Keep your nominal selectorate as large as possible. Nat, Neil, and Adil discuss rigged elections. These are a periodic reminder that everyone is replaceable. The way to thrive in a dictatorship is not to be the dictator himself, but to be a highly irreplaceable member of the winning coalition. It's tough to be irreplaceable, as you also don't want to become a threat. 43:30 Once you accumulate power, it's all about keeping power. It's chaotic to transition from one leader to the next. Fratricide is the act of killing one's brother. How this has been seen in history before as well as in animal behavior. 45:32 Rule 3: Control the flow of revenue. If your leader doesn't know how to make money and increase wealth for your country, it's essential that they know who to pay to stay in power. Example: Mugabe from Zimbabwe stayed in power despite starvation and epidemics throughout the country. It was less about what happens to the people, as long as the army was paid. “When debt exceeds the ability to pay, the problem for a leader is not so much that good public works must be cut back, but rather that the incumbent doesn't have the resources necessary to purchase political loyalty from key backers." 49:25 Taxation: Maximize taxation while maintaining productivity if you're an autocratic country with no natural resources. Taxes on crypto in other countries vs. the U.S. 54:02 “It seems that many non-Muslims, realizing that they could reduce the tax collectors' reach by becoming Muslim, put their religious beliefs aside and converted." Some religious empires collected taxes instead of direct rule. There was also tax farming where central authority bids on the taxes from different regions, and kept some of the collected tax for their own use. 58:17 Official exchange rates vs. street rates. The street rates would essentially be a better deal because the government was taking a cut out of the official exchange rates. This idea connects again with cryptocurrency where if a transaction isn't traceable by the government, it can be a good deal for everyone involved.  1:04:20 "Rule 4: Pay your key supporters just enough to keep them loyal." Dichotomy in the lives of people in the same country, Saudi Arabia as an example. Some people live very wealthy, whereas some areas of the country don't even have paved roads. Within the same country are extremely different ways of living. 1:08:54 A dictatorship is so much easier to control than a democracy when it comes to foreign aid. They're no longer under American control when they become a democracy. 1:12:58 Relationship between military and government in other countries. 1:14:56 "Rule 5: Don't take money out of your supporter's pockets to make the people's lives better." Bribes in FIFA and the Olympics. Buying votes to win hosting rights for your country. 1:20:19 Dictators who try to support the people at the expense of their coalition often found themselves on the losing end. “Julius Caesar's mistake was to help the people at the expense of his backers and this too cost him his life." 1:23:25 The progression of making marijuana legal in the states. States have power in some large topics such as marijuana legalization and abortion where one state may create laws in complete opposite of another state. 1:29:10 Political divide these days can often appear less about the individual policies and more about whether it should be a Federal or State issue.  1:32:01 Nassim Taleb tangent, and the story of how Nat got blocked on Twitter. 1:37:00 Getting sick as a dictator. Those who depend on you are no longer secure, so they're looking for someone else. It's important to have a succession plan lined up that your key supporters believe in. They don't want their future to come into question. 1:41:40 The monarchy in England and other European countries, and the way that they're born into power. 1:45:28 The more democratic a group is, the weaker it is. If it's weak, slow, and requires a lot of consensus, there is less power. Same goes for companies. 1:50:13 Crypto and selectorate theory. Some tokens are very autocratic while some are very community-owned and community-driven. Low exit costs in crypto, if you don't like what you see, you can take your money and go elsewhere. 1:59:40 Thanks for listening! Adil will be back in a future episode where we cover Seeing Like a State. If you enjoyed this episode, let us know by leaving a review on iTunes and tell a friend. As always, let us know if you have any book recommendations! You can say hi to us on Twitter @TheRealNeilS and @nateliason and share your thoughts on this episode. You can now support Made You Think using the Value-for-Value feature of Podcasting 2.0. This means you can directly tip the co-hosts in BTC with minimal transaction fees. To get started, simply download a podcast app (like Fountain or Breez) that supports Value-for-Value and send some BTC to your in-app wallet. You can then use that to support shows who have opted-in, including Made You Think! We'll be going with this direct support model moving forward, rather than ads. Thanks for listening. See you next time!

La Tribu Estoica
El manual del dictador, de Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

La Tribu Estoica

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 20, 2022 25:52


¿Por qué muchos dirigentes que han arruinado a sus países se mantienen tanto tiempo en el poder? ¿Cómo puede ser que países ricos en recursos tengan a gran parte de la población en la pobreza? ¿Por qué las autocracias tienen unas políticas económicas tan funestas? ¿Por qué a las democracias se les da tan bien la guerra? Desde hace dos décadas, y tras examinar los éxitos y fracasos de autócratas, demócratas y jefes ejecutivos, los politólogos Bruce Bueno de Mesquita y Alastair Smith han determinado que los líderes están dispuestos a hacer cualquier cosa para mantenerse en el poder. Por simple que pueda parecer este punto de vista, revela la lógica de la política y explica casi todo lo que necesitamos saber acerca de cómo son dirigidos los países y las empresas. ¿Te gusta lo que escuchas? ¡Déjamelo en un comentario, dale a like y suscríbete para apoyar el proyecto! Nos vemos en el siguiente episodio, tribu.

nos desde mesquita dictador el manual bruce bueno alastair smith bruce bueno de mesquita
Made You Think
67: Update Episode January 2022

Made You Think

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 12, 2022 2:13


Hey everyone, this is an update episode.  Made You Think is coming back this month! The biggest change is that Nat will not be a co-host on most episodes moving forward, due to other time commitments. Instead, we'll have other co-hosts on each episode, some of whom you've heard on the show before.  For those that want to follow along, the next two books we're covering are: The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics by Alastair Smith and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita The Quest of the Simple Life by William James Dawson You can now support Made You Think using the Value-for-Value feature of Podcasting 2.0. This means you can directly tip the co-hosts in BTC with minimal transaction fees. To get started, simply download a podcast app (like Fountain) that supports Value-for-Value and send some BTC to your in-app wallet. You can then use that to support shows who have opted-in, including Made You Think! We'll be going with this direct support model moving forward, rather than ads.   Learn more about Podcasting 2.0 here: https://medium.com/@everywheretrip/an-introduction-to-podcasting-2-0-3c4f61ea17f4 If you need help setting up your wallet, DM Neil on Twitter at @therealneils and he'll help you get started.  Excited to be back! 

Anticipating The Unintended
#145 The Escalation Ladder of Outrage

Anticipating The Unintended

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 31, 2021 22:41


India Policy Watch #1: What Outrage Means Insights on burning policy issues in India— RSJLast week while writing about the Fabindia Diwali ad and the accompanying outrage, I wrote that this ‘arms race of purity’ might become a familiar feature in our cultural landscape. This week we got this:“Homegrown FMCG player Dabur has withdrawn its advertisement on Karva Chauth showing a lesbian couple celebrating the festival in the ad campaign of its Fem Creme bleach and has issued unconditionally apology.After facing backlash on social media platforms and also from a politician from the ruling BJP, the company has withdrawn the ad campaign.In the same week, Bajrang Dal activists vandalised the set and assaulted the director and crew members of the web series Aashram because it ‘defamed the Hindu religion’. There are a few larger questions I have about this phenomenon. Before I come to them, let’s look at this Dabur ad issue a bit more. The ad uses the classic “traditional plot with a twist” approach to make it stand out amidst the clutter. A karwa chauth ad with a lesbian couple must have checked all the boxes in the minds of the marketers at Dabur. It was topical and it celebrated diversity. The recent Cadbury’s Dairy Milk campaign that went viral where it switched the gender roles of its classic ads of the 90s is a good example of this approach. The new ad had the girl hitting a last-ball six while her boyfriend danced onto the pitch. So, here’s a thought experiment: what if Cadbury’s had made the same ad with a same-sex couple? Would that have created the same outrage as the Dabur karwa chauth ad? I suspect there would have been some but nothing of the kind we saw with the Dabur ad. There are more than a few ads and TV shows right now featuring same-sex couples. In fact, the statement of the BJP leader who threatened legal action against the ad is useful to quote here:"In future they will show two men taking 'feras' (marrying each other according to Hindu rituals)." I suspect the issue becomes fraught when Hindu rituals are involved. I have argued in previous editions that the way ideologies are understood in India are different from their original conception. A liberal is used for a left-leaning activist kind instead of someone believing in individual rights and consent. People call themselves conservative that is, those who value order, custom and self-directed change in society, while they champion bigoted views and radical changes that will usher in an ‘ideal society’. They do so without any sense of irony. An absence of ideological clarity is a feature of our democracy. Ideological ConfusionNow, if I were an Indian conservative, how would I look at the Dabur ad? Sure, I would wince a bit at the lesbian angle. After all, to me, marriage is a social institution and it is solemnised between a woman and a man. But then I would also reluctantly acknowledge that same-sex relationship is now accepted in many societies. It has a legal sanction in India. Maybe then as a true conservative, I will look at the ad again. Sure it shows lesbians but they are also following a tradition that I hold dear. The ad upholds my belief that individualism has to be grounded by custom and tradition. That social cohesion will be preserved only if we adhere to our cultural mores. So, I would welcome an ad that co-opts a new generation into this tradition. But that’s not how the so-called conservatives behaved. What explains this? The simple answer is that it’s about outrage, not so much about the tradition. It is about using another incident to strengthen the narrative that there are insidious forces who will destroy sanatan dharma if we aren’t forever vigilant. And you can only trust us to protect you from these forces. Today it is a lesbian couple following the karwa chauth ritual that’s seen as a threat to the faith. Tomorrow it could be a straight woman in the ad but without a bindi. The reason for outrage doesn’t really matter. The narrative that religion is under threat is what is important. So, the far-fetched notion that marketing teams and ad agencies working for Fabindia or Dabur are either anti-Hindu or part of some global conspiracy. Not the obvious reality that almost every lever of power is now controlled by those of your ideological slant. That’s not enough. There are still some mythical powerful people who are brainwashing our young. Not the obvious reality that the young in these companies and their customers are slowly changing and accepting of diversity on their own like a conservative would have preferred. There is no real respect for tradition or for how society is changing itself. It is just another opportunity to play an imaginary victim card and keep the narrative of Hinduism in danger for future electoral gains. Thinking About CultureBeyond these specific instances, there are a few questions that come to my mind as I look at the cultural landscape in India. First, we often use the Breitbart doctrine - politics is the downstream of culture - around here. Like we have written before, there is a long history to this idea before Breitbart. Anyway, there’s an obvious counter to the Breitbart doctrine that comes up after seeing instances like these - isn’t politics influencing culture here? Hasn’t culture now become downstream of politics? The way to think about this is that the Breitbart doctrine is focused on the outcome. The outcome always is about a politics different from what it is today. So, yes, the politician in MP who threatened legal action against the ad was trying to influence culture today. But his goal is to create a kind of politics tomorrow that’s narrower and more bigoted than today. How your culture is changing today is still the best indicator of the kind of politics you will get tomorrow. Going by the spate of fake outrage about ads and TV shows, the future of politics doesn’t look promising.Second, there’s another point that’s made when issues like these come up. No one votes on such issues and these are some fringe elements trying to get into a news cycle. Don’t overread this. I agree, with a caveat. Usually, these are indeed isolated instances of people coercing others to their point of view with limited success except when those doing this hold the levers of power. Then the consequences are both real and long-term. They cannot be likened to an equally stupid outrage by the other side who hold almost no power even if they are vocal. To take the US case, the QAnon and other right-wing crazy ideas can find support on social media but there are hardly people holding power in government, universities or corporates who believe in them. But ‘wokeism’ in universities and workplaces can be a real problem as seen in the dismissals of many alternative voices because those holding power in these places tends to support woke ideas. In India, the shoe is on the other foot. The right-wing ideas have the support of those in power. In edition #120 (A Short History of Breitbart Doctrine), I had written about the Gramscian idea of cultural hegemony which is being followed to the letter in India:Gramsci argued a capitalist state had two overlapping spheres that helped it to thrive. There was the ‘political society’ that ruled through coercion and control of means of production which was visible to all. But there was also the ‘civil society’ that ruled through consent and control of minds. The civil society was the public sphere of ideas and beliefs that were shaped through the church, media or universities. To him, the capitalist state was successful in ‘manufacturing consent’ among people through the ‘cultural hegemony’ it set up through its control of the public sphere. People living in such societies didn’t question their position or their exploitation because they thought this was the ‘natural state’ of existence. The cultural hegemony was so complete and overpowering that there could hardly be any mobilisation of people against the ‘political society’ which ruled through coercion. The minds of the people were brainwashed through propaganda.In short: establishing cultural hegemony is the first step to winning the minds and eventually, the votes of people (we are talking of democracy here). Over time, this hegemony in the public sphere will earn you the long-term consent of the people who will consider it their ‘natural state’. Self-censorship will follow as an outcome of this hegemony. That addresses the second question on why people self-censor themselves.Third, there’s the other question that usually comes up along with the imagined victimhood. Why only choose Hindu rituals? Why not show such ads using rituals of other Abrahamic faiths? Well, if some 82 per cent of the people in India are Hindus, it is natural for an ad or a TV show to focus on this majority for their message; radical or otherwise. Dabur or Fabindia won’t show such ads in another non-Hindu majority country if we were to take the hypothetical case of them being present there. Everyone focuses on the majority. It is for exactly the same reason why more than 80 per cent of films and TV shows have protagonists with Hindu names and faith. Or, a majority of holidays in offices are for Hindu festivals. This is how it works for any overwhelming majority. You get everything in majority. A decade or two back, I remember, there used to be articles and shows debating the relevance of rituals like karwa chauth and their place in modern society. Today, the debate is who can be shown observing the ritual and, maybe, what should they be wearing. That’s enough for you to know who is winning the culture war. p.s: Growing up I had almost no knowledge of karwa chauth. I don’t recollect any film or TV shows that featured it in their plots. Till Shah Rukh Khan (SRK) and Kajol ‘universalised’ it in Dilwale Dulhaniya Le Jayenge. Culture changes, gradually and then suddenly, to misquote Hemingway. SRK would’ve learnt it . A Framework a Week: Rules For Political Survival Tools for thinking public policy— RSJI’m reading The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics (2011) by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith. The Netflix series How To Become A Tyrant is based on this. It is an interesting book with the central premise that politicians, dictators and democrats alike, are all the same. They must follow the same playbook of self-interested behaviour to stay in power. I will write about the book in a more relevant context some other time, perhaps. For now, I will leave you with this excellent set of rules that authors suggest leaders can use to succeed in any system:Rule 1: Keep your winning coalition as small as possible. A small coalition allows a leader to rely on very few people to stay in power. Fewer essentials equals more control and contributes to more discretion over expenditures. Bravo for Kim Jong Il of North Korea. He is a contemporary master at ensuring dependence on a small coalition.Rule 2: Keep your nominal selectorate as large as possible. Maintain a large selectorate of interchangeables and you can easily replace any troublemakers in your coalition, influentials and essentials alike. After all, a large selectorate permits a big supply of substitute supporters to put the essentials on notice that they should be loyal and well behaved or else face being replaced.Bravo to Vladimir Ilyich Lenin for introducing universal adult suffrage in Russia’s old rigged election system. Lenin mastered the art of creating a vast supply of interchangeables.Rule 3: Control the flow of revenue. It’s always better for a ruler to determine who eats than it is to have a larger pie from which the people can feed themselves. The most effective cash flow for leaders is one that makes lots of people poor and redistributes money to keep select people—their supporters—wealthy.Bravo to Pakistan’s president Asif Ali Zardari, estimated to be worth up to $4 billion even as he governed a country near the world’s bottom in per capita income.Rule 4: Pay your key supporters just enough to keep them loyal. Remember, your backers would rather be you than be dependent on you. Your big advantage over them is that you know where the money is and they don’t. Give your coalition just enough so that they don’t shop around for someone to replace you and not a penny more.Bravo to Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe who, whenever facing a threat of a military coup, manages finally to pay his army, keeping their loyalty against all odds.Rule 5: Don’t take money out of your supporter’s pockets to make the people’s lives better. The flip side of rule 4 is not to be too cheap toward your coalition of supporters. If you’re good to the people at the expense of your coalition, it won’t be long until your “friends” will be gunning for you. Effective policy for the masses doesn’t necessarily produce loyalty among essentials, and it’s darn expensive to boot. Hungry people are not likely to have the energy to overthrow you, so don’t worry about them. Disappointed coalition members, in contrast, can defect, leaving you in deep trouble.Bravo to Senior General Than Shwe of Myanmar, who made sure following the 2008 Nargis cyclone that food relief was controlled and sold on the black market by his military supporters rather than letting aid go to the people—at least 138,000 and maybe as many as 500,000 of whom died in the disaster.Cynical? Maybe. Illuminating, nevertheless. India Policy Watch #2: Musical Chairs Insights on burning policy issues in India— Pranay KotasthaneIn September, you would have come across many headlines to this effect: "right to sit" becomes a workplace law in Tamil Nadu. Or Tamil Nadu Becomes Second State After Kerala to Establish Right to Sit for Workers. Or Tamil Nadu’s ‘right to sit’ Bill, a long-overdue fundamental right.Of course, the change in law doesn’t mean the ‘right to sit’ is now an enforceable fundamental right. Nevertheless, the news coverage on this issue seems to suggest tha a legal right to sit for all workers in shops and establishments in the state would improve the conditions of workers. As someone skeptical of framing entitlements as rights guaranteed by the state, I was intrigued. How is the government going to enforce such a legal right? What does the right cover? What qualifies as seating? What does adequate seating mean? What’s the market failure here? How will smaller shops provide space for adequate seating?A useful philosophical distinction to consider here is between negative and positive rights. The holder of a negative right is entitled to non-interference. That is, having a negative right to sit implies an employer cannot stop a worker from sitting. A positive right is entitled to the provision of some good or service. That is, having the positive right to sit implies an employer must provide workers with a chair to sit on. The framing of the news reportage seemed to indicate that the government was leaning towards a positive right.So I searched for the exact text of the Kerala and TN amendments to their shops and establishment acts. This is what they say:Tamil Nadu LA Bill 29 of 2021:“22-A. Seating facilities -The premises of every establishment shall have suitable seating arrangements for all employees so that they may take advantage of any opportunity to sit which may occur in the course of their work and thereby avoid ‘on their toes’ situation throughout the working hours."Kerala LA Ordinance 50 of 2018 is almost identical:12B. Seating facilities — In every shop and establishment, suitable arrangements for sitting shall be provided to all workers so as to avoid ‘on the toes’ situation throughout the duty time, so that they may take advantage of any opportunity to sit which may occur in the course of their work.That’s about it. Although there’s no mention of a ‘right to sit’, my friend Ameya Naik educated me that such an obligation on a shop or establishment by definition creates a legal right for workers. So, how effective is this right likely to be? We can anticipate the following unintended consequences:Shops might procure a few chairs and yet prevent workers from sitting. Since the act does not define what ‘any opportunity to sit which may occur in the course of their work’ is, enforcing the right will be quite difficult.Smaller shops and establishments with limited space might find it difficult to comply to this law. Expect chairs to appear miraculously just before the inspector pays a visit.This gives another tool in the hands of the inspectors who are also supposed to check if shops comply with laws on holidays, opening and closing hours of the establishment, cleanliness, ventilation, lighting, prevention against fire etc. — a total of 32 sections under the Shops and Establishments Act. Given the limited capacity, we can expect that the bribe rates to increase.In sum, this ‘right to sit’ is, in reality, a mandate at par with other compliances for shops such as a holiday a week, a maximum work day of eight hours, wage for overtime work etc. In the most optimistic scenario, we can expect its compliance levels to be at par with these other pre-existing mandates. Finally, I am honestly unable to identify the exact market failure that necessitates government intervention on seating facilities in a shop. If I had no choice but to recommend a government intervention, an ethical labour sourcing certification that shops can voluntarily opt for, would be my first solution.India Policy Watch #3: Effecting Policy Change Insights on burning policy issues in India— Pranay KotasthaneThis week I read Himanshu Jha’s Capturing Institutional Change: The Case of the Right to Information Act in India. The ‘Right to X’ in a book title is usually a red flag for me but I am glad I ignored that thought. This book is an excellent read for anyone trying to understand how public policy changes happen in India. On the RTI Act’s promulgation, the first dominant narrative is that a bottom-up social movement with the Mazdoor Kisaan Shakti Sangathan (MKSS) ultimately culminated in the RTI Act 2005. Another dominant narrative highlights the key role played by the UPA-1 government. Jha challenges both these narrative and argues, rather convincingly, that:‘institutional change in the case of RTI in India is an incremental and gradual process of ideas emerging from within the state.’ [page 12]That’s a bold claim. Jha argues that key elements in the Indian political ecosystem were on board with the idea of freedom of information many years before the RTI act came into being. It was an idea whose time had come long before 2005. First the opposition parties and later, the mainstream parties played a major role in overturning the established norm of secrecy. The social movement did have a role to play but it too had a co-dependent relationship with elements in the state; the narrative that it was an outright contest between the society and the state in which the former won is incorrect. As a public policy student, this argument interests me because it again challenges a deep-seated belief in India that only crises drive positive changes in our polity. Many reforms, like the RTI Act, the National Pension System reform have actually come about as a result of a gradual process involving aligning cognitive maps, smart negotiating, and display of political will. That is a sign of hope and a call for rejecting cynicism. Crisis is no guarantee for a policy reform. The well-thought-through reforms take time and perhaps for good reason. HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Article] Pratap Bhanu Mehta in The Indian Express on Aryan Khan affair: It's not about establishing that everyone is equal before the law. There are larger ideological connections here.[Podcast] Jordan Peterson podcast: Peterson, Steven Pinker, and Jonathan Haidt sit down to discuss truth, how societies function, utopias, the role of religion, & more. [Book] Successful Public Policy: Lessons from Australia and New Zealand is a rare book that identifies elements of good policy design. The chapter on water markets is particularly relevant to India. Get on the email list at publicpolicy.substack.com

ami1649
Audio Essay 1 - The Dictator's Handbook by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith

ami1649

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 3, 2021 22:26


My discussion of "The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics" by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/ami1649/message

handbook dictator mesquita audio essays bruce bueno alastair smith bruce bueno de mesquita
The Cave of Time
The Power of a Dictator

The Cave of Time

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 8, 2021 114:07


The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics is a book written by New York University professors, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith. It claims to explain the actions and choices made by all politicians in every landscape. Not just from North Korean dictatorship to the Saudi Royal family to Russian oligarchies to western democracies, but also from every trade local union and teachers' association to crime family. Has the political code been cracked? Can you predict the political outcome forever? Have you finally found the path to become the future king of your country? Or, is there something left to be desired? Come with us to the Cave of Time and find out. Get an Odysee account. If you use our invite link (and validate your email address, even a fake one), we'll both get free LBC (which you can use to donate to your favorite creators.): https://odysee.com/$/invite/@cave_time Live every Saturday, pm EST on Odysee/LBRY: https://odysee.com/@cave_time Join the new Discord: https://discord.gg/EpNt9cGHjf YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/TheSLMTube Twitter: https://twitter.com/cave_time Any podcast platform: search "The Cave of Time" This podcast is hosted by ZenCast.fm

Rob Wiblin's top recommended EconTalk episodes v0.2 Feb 2020
Ranked #8 of all time: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita on the Spoils of War

Rob Wiblin's top recommended EconTalk episodes v0.2 Feb 2020

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 23, 2020 75:10


There is a fascinating and depressing positive correlation between the reputation of an American president and the number of people dying in wars while that president is in office. Political scientist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita of NYU and co-author of The Spoils of War talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about how presidents go to war. Bueno de Mesquita argues that the decision of how and when to go to war is made in self-interested ways rather than in consideration of what is best for the nation. The discussion includes a revisionist perspective on the presidencies of George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, and others as Bueno de Mesquita tries to make the case that the reputations of these men are over-inflated. Actually released 12 Dec 2016.

Uncertain Things
You Can Be a Dictator, Too (w/ Bruce Bueno de Mesquita & Alastair Smith)

Uncertain Things

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 19, 2020 76:28


Ten years ago, NYU political scientists Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith wrote "The Dictator's Handbook," which posited that all political leaders — from autocrats to democratically-elected officials — are governed by an uncomfortably similar set of rules and incentives. We thought now’s the perfect time to take a fresh look at their model and re-learn the dos and don’ts of political power. We discuss the Trump presidency, the Electoral College, voter fraud, jolly old Putin, and a variety of delectable topics to get you revved up and ready for election day.If you haven’t already, please join our coalition of essentials by subscribing to Uncertain Things here (or wherever you get your podcasts).[5:55] The basic principles of the theory[13:00] Democracies & Dictatorships, a sliding scale[19:56] It’s a mess, but we’re course-correcting [23:05] The problem with the Electoral College (it’s not what you think)[29: 21] All leaders want to shrink their coalition (on gerrymandering, sore loser laws, and Tanzania)[33:05] The people push back[35:25] How vote fraud actually happens[37:45] On social media (the information/disinformation arms race)[49:21] Universities are not democracies[54:46] Which companies win, which commit fraud[1:00:31] What we get wrong about foreign aid (the Petro-State Problem}[1:006:31] The liberalizing myth[1:08:44] The issue with inequity in democracy[1:14:00] A Yang gang post-script Get full access to Uncertain Things at uncertain.substack.com/subscribe

The Boldly Now Show
BN 15: A Fatal Blow to an Already Dead System with Daniel Schmachtenberger

The Boldly Now Show

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 20, 2020 80:25


Together with social philosopher and founding member of The Consilience Project, Daniel Schmachtenberger, we explore the global reactions to coronavirus that are reshaping the world we live in and the widening gap between the problems faced and the average person's willingness to accept them. Daniel offers his perspectives on how the shift in information ecology is creating a world of misinformation and offers some basic steps to building good sense-making. He discusses how the mass closure of small businesses represents one of the most severe consolidations of wealth possibilities we've ever seen and ways to rethink our current social structures.  Resources See a culmination of Daniel's public work on https://civilizationemerging.com/ (his website) Daniel is the CEO, Co-Founder and Director of Research & Development of the https://neurohacker.com/ (Neurohacker Collective) Daniel mentions the book: The Dictator's Handbook by Alastair Smith & Bruce Bueno de Mesquita https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs (Daniel mentions the The YouTube video “The Rules for Rulers”) Daniel's Bio Daniel is a founding member of The Consilience Project, aimed at improving public sensemaking and dialogue. The throughline of his interests has to do with ways of improving the health and development of individuals and society, with a virtuous relationship between the two as a goal. Towards these ends, he's had particular interest in the topics of catastrophic and existential risk, civilization and institutional decay and collapse as well as progress, collective action problems, social organization theories, and the relevant domains in philosophy and science. 

Those Who Came Before Us
Black Lives Matter : The African Context

Those Who Came Before Us

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 19, 2020 43:34


In this episode, we discuss police brutality in Africa. A slight detour from the Kingdom of Bunyoro-Kitara series. #BLACKLIVESMATTER SourcesGlasman,Joel. 2017. What is the Concept of Professionalization Good For? An Argument From Late Colonialism. Police in Africa:The Street Level View, NY, USA: Oxford University Press Steinberg, Jonny. 2017. Policing During and After Apartheid: A New Perspective on Continuity and Change. Police in Africa: The Street Level View, NY, USA: Oxford University PressFaull, Andrew. 2017. Fighting for Respect: Violence, Masculinity and Legitmacy in the South African Police Service. Police in Africa: The Street Level View, NY, USA: Oxford University Press.Kyed, Helene Maria. 2017. Inside the Police Stations in Maputo City: Between Legality and Legitimacy. Police in Africa: The Street Level View, NY, USA: Oxford University Press.Lar, Jimam. 2017. Historicizing Vigilante Policing in Plateau State,Nigeria. Police in Africa: The Street Level View, NY, USA: Oxford University Press.Thurmann, Laura. 2017. Somewhere between Green and Blue: A Special Police Unit in DR Congo. Police in Africa: The Street Level View, NY, USA: Oxford University Press.International Crisis Group. 2017. “Double Edged Sword: Vigilantes in African Counter Insurgencies” Accessed August 13. https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/west-africa/sierra-leone/251-double-edged-sword-vigilantes-african-counter-insurgenciesThe Conversation. 2017. “Vigilantism is Flourishing in Nigeria- with Official Support” Accessed August 13 https://theconversation.com/vigilantism-is-flourishing-in-nigeria-with-official-support-86867Livingstone, Steven. 2013. Africa’s Information Revolution: Implications for Crime, Policing, and Citizen Security, Washington DC, USA: African Center For Strategic Studies.Forrest, Kally. 2015. Bold Recommendations Embedded in Timidity: International Union Rights, Vol. 22, No. 3 (2015), pp. 6-7: International Centre for Trade Union RightsDe Mesquita, Bruce Bueno. 2007. Leopold II and the Selectorate: An Account in Contrast to a Racial Explanation, Historical Social Research / Historische Sozialforschung, Vol. 32, No. 4 (122), Neue Politische Ökonomie in der Geschichte / New Political Economy in History, pp. 203-221. Gesis - Leibniz - Institute for the Social Sciences, Center for Historical Social Research.NTV Fourth Estate.2020. “How the Media Covered Emmanuel Tegu’s Death” Accessed August 10 Music TransitionDigya Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/Energizing Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

Pb Living - A daily book review
A Book Review- The Dictator's Handbook Book by Alastair Smith and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Pb Living - A daily book review

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 9, 2020 11:59


The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics is a 2011 non-fiction book by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, published by the company Public Affairs. It discusses how politicians gain and retain political power. Bueno de Mesquita is a fellow at the Hoover Institution. Wikipedia --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/pbliving/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/pbliving/support

handbook public affairs dictator hoover institution mesquita bruce bueno alastair smith bruce bueno de mesquita
Knowledge = Power
The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior Is Almost Always Good Politics

Knowledge = Power

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 8, 2020 705:09


For 18 years, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith have been revolutionizing the study of politics by turning conventional wisdom on its head. They start from a single assertion: Leaders do whatever keeps them in power. They don't care about the "national interest" - or even their subjects - unless they have to. This clever and accessible book shows that the difference between tyrants and democrats is just a convenient fiction. Governments do not differ in kind but only in the number of essential supporters, or backs that need scratching. The size of this group determines almost everything about politics: what leaders can get away with, and the quality of life or misery under them. The picture the authors paint is not pretty. But it just may be the truth, which is a good starting point for anyone seeking to improve human governance.

CJ Radio
Carolina Journal Radio No. 872: John Locke Foundation welcomes new CEO for fourth decade of advancing liberty

CJ Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 3, 2020 47:50


The John Locke Foundation will soon begin its fourth decade of work advancing liberty in North Carolina. As it moves forward, Amy O. Cooke will lead the organization as its fourth CEO. Cooke discusses her history with the liberty movement, her return to her family’s N.C. roots, and her hopes for her new role leading the state’s premier free-market think tank. 2020 is shaping up to be an important election year in North Carolina. The ballot features races for U.S. president, U.S. Senate, and governor. Voters also will determine control of the N.C. General Assembly. One of the state’s leading political pundits and prognosticators is author, columnist, and John Locke Foundation Chairman John Hood. He shares his thoughts about the top issues and campaigns to watch during the course of the year. A U.S. House committee led by Democrats recently blasted the U.S. Education Department’s handling of issues related to student loan debt. But the committee’s ranking Republican, North Carolina’s Rep. Virginia Foxx, R-5th District, chastised her colleagues. She suggested the group ought to focus on more pressing concerns. You might have heard of the “Game of Thrones,” but you’re much less likely to have heard of the “Game of Worms.” Political scientist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita of New York University discussed the latter “game” during a recent lecture at Duke. Citing the Concordat of Worms of 1122, the professor points to changes in relations between church and crown that helped pave the way for today’s economic divide between northern and southern Europe.

Michelle Spiva Wisdom Smack
Ep. 249-The Insider's Guide to Self-Sufficiency

Michelle Spiva Wisdom Smack

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 16, 2020 32:38


Do you know when you have enough? Or, do you end up self-destructing for lack of knowledge and know-how to have enough? Today, we talk about a quick wisdom guide to sufficiency. Listen and don't forget to like, comment, share, and support! Book: The Dictator's Handbook by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita: https://amzn.to/3alBqDk Don't forget to use our Amazon link to support the podcast by using our Amazon Shopping link! http://MichelleSpiva.com/Amz To send a message to the show: https://anchor.fm/michelle-spiva/message For Interviews, sponsorship, or coaching/consulting, please send inquires to: MichelleSpiva at gmail dot com (no solicitation-spam; *You do not have permission to add this email to any email list or autoresponder without knowledge or consent) _____________________________ Further support this podcast, please do so by using any of these methods: All your Amazon shopping: http://michellespiva.com/Amz Venmo: @MichelleSpiva1 CashApp: $MichelleSpiva PayPal: http://bit.ly/Donate2Michelle Patreon: https://Patreon.com/MichelleSpiva Don't forget to like, comment, subscribe, rate, and review. Follow Michelle here: Facebook: facebook.com/FollowMichelleSpiva Twitter: @mspiva IG: @MichelleSpiva Find out more about Michelle's alter-ego fiction writer side: Amazon Author Page: http://amzn.to/2lIP6Om Facebook: facebook.com/MychalDanielsAuthor Twitter: @mychaldaniels IG: @MychalDaniels Website: MychalDaniels.com/connect --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/michelle-spiva/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/michelle-spiva/support

Michelle Spiva Wisdom Smack

Grandaddy was right. There's wisdom in owning land. There's also great power in your strategy of infrastructure of that land. Join Michelle today as she talks through a discovery she made while researching for a current fiction project on the power of roads, the types, and how to gain power and wealth through understanding one important secret to them. Book Mentioned: The Dictator's Handbook by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita & Allistar Smith-- http://michellespiva.com/Amz-BruceBDM-DictatorsHandbook Check out Seth Godin's daily blog here: seths.blog _____________________________ Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe. Follow Michelle here: Facebook: facebook.com/FollowMichelleSpiva Twitter: @mspiva IG: @MichelleSpiva If you'd like to further support this podcast, please do so by using any of these methods: All your Amazon shopping: http://michellespiva.com/Amz Venmo: @MichelleSpiva1 PayPal: http://bit.ly/Donate2Michelle Patreon: https://Patreon.com/MichelleSpiva --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/michelle-spiva/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/michelle-spiva/support

Probablement?
Bienveillance transhumaniste avec Alexandre Technoprog | Probablement?

Probablement?

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 24, 2019 193:17


Aujourd'hui, on parle de transhumanisme avec Alexandre Technoprog, auteur de la chaîne éponyme. Alexandre Technoprog : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZ3-PmXGBBFv-lZ6yYDlUbQ/ Les recommendations d'Alexandre : - The Dictator's Handbook par Bruce Bueno de Mesquita et Alastair Smith : https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Politics/dp/1610391845/ - The Righteous Mind par Jonathan Haidt : https://www.amazon.com/Righteous-Mind-Divided-Politics-Religion/dp/0307455777 - AI Superpowers par Kai-Fu Lee : https://www.amazon.com/AI-Superpowers-China-Silicon-Valley/dp/132854639X Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/Science4Allorg/ Twitter : https://twitter.com/science__4__all Tipeee : https://www.tipeee.com/science4all Mes goodies : https://shop.spreadshirt.fr/science4all Mes dates à venir : https://www.dropbox.com/s/t3abghdmh5964sx/Actu.txt?dl=0 La formule du savoir (mon livre) : https://laboutique.edpsciences.fr/produit/1035/9782759822614/La%20formule%20du%20savoir A Roadmap for the Value-Loading Problem https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.01036 Probablement? en audio : http://playlists.podmytube.com/UC0NCbj8CxzeCGIF6sODJ-7A/PLtzmb84AoqRQ0ikLb4yC4lKgjeDEIpE1i.xml Moi en podcast avec Mr Phi : Version YouTube : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNHFiyWgsnaSOsMtSoV_Q1A Version Audio : http://feeds.feedburner.com/Axiome Sous-titres sur les autres vidéos : http://www.youtube.com/timedtext_cs_panel?tab=2&c=UC0NCbj8CxzeCGIF6sODJ-7A

Elemental Podcast | Club de aprendizaje
 #046 – Liberalismo II de Edmund Fawcett

Elemental Podcast | Club de aprendizaje

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 8, 2018 57:01


En esta parte II seguimos profundizando sobre el concepto del liberalismo y sus diversas aristas. En este episodio revisamos cómo fue su evolución histórica a partir de 1880 y nos enfrentamos a todas las polémicas que se vivieron a propósito del imperialismo, las guerras mundiales y la crisis del 29. Resumen del Libro: Liberalismo es una palabra que tiene múltiples significados. Muchas veces las personas entienden cosas distintas cuando se refieren a ella. El Liberalismo ha ido cambiando mucho con los siglos. En el episodio de hoy revisamos qué es realmente el liberalismo en todas sus facetas.   ¡Conviértete en El Padrino de nuestro podcast ayudándonos mes a mes! Ingresa a https://www.patreon.com/elementalpodcast   |Nuestra página|:http://www.elementalpodcast.cl/ |Twitter|: https://twitter.com/elementalpodcas (@elementalpodcas) |Facebook|: https://www.facebook.com/ElementalPodcast/ |Instagram|: https://www.instagram.com/elementalpodcast/ |Youtube|: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzbMsT2QA6TTaYrzLr6t1AQ   |Subscríbete en iTunes|: https://goo.gl/exXvXV |Subscríbete en Stitcher|: https://goo.gl/ZzStCQ |Subscríbete en Podbean|: https://goo.gl/JV8VUZ |Subscríbete en Spotify|: https://goo.gl/jJdL5n   |Amazon|: http://a.co/gEHZi1T |Autor|:  Edmund Fawcett   Links y notas del Show:   00:00 |Elemental episodio #046|  00:47 |Parte II - 1880 a 1945| 10:38 |Liberalismo de Mercado| 14:13 |Liberalismo Internacional| |World War I: The Seminal Tragedy|: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-wSL4WqUws&list=PL0PCtg4LBjMf61ghXFAsVv4z-plT_giCT 19:18 |Crisis del Liberalismo| |El manual del dictador de Bruce Bueno de Mesquita y Alastair Smith Parte 1|: https://youtu.be/jSK1x9hqwYU 25:43 |Parte III - 1945 a 1989|  30:28 |Viejos y nuevos medios para ideas liberales| 33:05 |John Rawls| 36:57 |Nuevo liberalismo (otra vez)| 44:57 |Preguntas sobre el Liberalismo| 47:29 |Cierre y conclusiones|   Pedro García-Huidobro (@pedroghg) y Santiago Allamand (@stgoallamand) discuten sobre distintos libros todas las semanas. Agradecimientos especiales a: |Música Intro|: Osvaldo Guzmán |Sonidos Adicionales|: Osvaldo Guzmán |Logo|: María de los Ángeles Manriquez |Musica Cierre|: ”Rollin at 5" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 3.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

The Priestesses
Episode 23: Paganly Political

The Priestesses

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 27, 2017 80:30


For this difficult episode, we're joined by our close friend, Panentheistic Pagan, and UU clergy member, Julie. We start out talking a bit about the beginnings of activism in the Pagan community, then roll into exploring where Pagans fall on the political spectrum and why. From there, we talk about: Pagan demographics, magickal activism, the difficulties of effecting change, mixing politics and religion, setting an example, the imperative of activism, interconnectedness and fundamental rights, the growing appeal of Paganism, how we're seen by society, living our values, how we're politically active, the problems with complacency, getting involved, establishing safe spaces, cognitive dissonance, fostering communication and understanding, the keys of leadership, being informed, how the current political climate affects us, the individual and society, and much, much more. Sharing Space: - Rules For Rulers (CGP Grey): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs&t=385s - The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith: https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Politics/dp/1610391845/ref=sr_1_8?ie=UTF8&qid=1490588281&sr=8-8&keywords=dictator - Laura Tempest Zakroff: http://www.lauratempestzakroff.com/ http://www.owlkeyme.com/ http://www.moderntraditionalwitch.com/ http://www.darklydramatic.com/ http://www.magodjinn.com/ - Laura Perry: http://www.lauraperryauthor.com/ http://www.lauraperryauthor.com/ariadnes-threadhttp://www.minoantarot.com/ - STUFFandThings: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyzAMeGkT4N82NXOXN584aw - Review: Midori Traveler's Notebook (A Man's Perspective): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBRjYNQ1qio Links: Website: www.thepriestesses.com Email: thepriestesses@gmail.com Twitter: @ThePriestesses Facebook: The Priestesses Music: Rebecca E. Tripp (www.crystalechosound.com)

War College
How spreading democracy keeps dictators in power

War College

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 15, 2017 28:12


For his views on democracies and dictatorships, he’s been called a cynic. But NYU professor Alastair Smith doesn’t think that makes him wrong. This week on War College, Smith debunks popular ideas about dictators and how they stay in power. According to Smith, and his colleague Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, the West too often trades cash for policy favors from dictators. International criminal courts for authoritarian leaders are bad ideas, Smith argues, because they create negative incentives for dictators to leave. And attempts to help the masses - as former Libyan strongman Muammar Gaddafi attempted - can be a dictator’s biggest mistake. Smith says that for dictators, it’s good policy to understand who keeps them in power and to keep those entities – which can sometimes include the West - happy. By Matthew Gault Produced and edited by Bethel Habte See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

EconTalk
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita on the Spoils of War

EconTalk

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 12, 2016 75:10


There is a fascinating and depressing positive correlation between the reputation of an American president and the number of people dying in wars while that president is in office. Political scientist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita of NYU and co-author of The Spoils of War talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about how presidents go to war. Bueno de Mesquita argues that the decision of how and when to go to war is made in self-interested ways rather than in consideration of what is best for the nation. The discussion includes a revisionist perspective on the presidencies of George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, and others as Bueno de Mesquita tries to make the case that the reputations of these men are over-inflated.

CGP Grey
Death & Dynasties

CGP Grey

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 7, 2016 5:39


Discuss this video: http://reddit.com/r/cgpgrey Get a Che Greyvara shirt: https://store.dftba.com/products/che-... Get 'The Dictator's Handbook': http://amzn.to/2fgBWps Special Thanks:  Bruce Bueno de Mesquita & Alastair Smith & Jason Snell (https://sixcolors.com/) for an emergency microphone loan & Mark Govea, Thomas J Miller Jr MD, dedla , Robert Kunz, John Buchan, Ripta Pasay, Saki Comandao, Andres Villacres, Christian Cooper, Michael Little, PervertedThomas , Nevin Spoljaric, سليمان العقل, Tony DiLascio, Richard Jenkins, Chris Chapin, Faust Fairbrook, Jason Lewandowski, Michael Mrozek, Jordan LeDoux, Chris Woodall, rictic , Ian , Tod Kurt, Phil Gardner, Chang Wang, Kozo Ota, Jordan Melville, Martin , Steven Grimm, Joe Pantry, Colin Millions, Muhammad Shifaz, Chris Harshman, Jose Reyes, Guillermo , Ron Bowes, Tómas Árni Jónasson, Mikko , Derek Bonner, Derek Jackson, Orbit_Junkie , Timothy Basanov, David Michaels, Mark Elders, Donal Botkin, Veronica Peshterianu, Paul Tomblin, Travis Wichert, chrysilis , Ryan E Manning, Erik Parasiuk, Rhys Parry, Maarten van der Blij, Kevin Anderson, Ryan Nielsen, Esteban Santana Santana, Dag Viggo Lokøen, Tristan Watts-Willis, John Rogers, Edward Adams, Leon , ken mcfarlane, Brandon Callender, Timothy Moran, Peter Lomax, Emil , Tijmen van Dien, ShiroiYami , Alex Schuldberg, Ryan Constantin, Bear , Jacob Ostling, Solon Carter, Rescla , Hystiklopp , Andrew Proue, Tor Henrik Lehne, David Palomares, Cas Eliëns, Freddi Hørlyck, Ernesto Jimenez, Osric Lord-Williams, Maxime Zielony, Lachlan Holmes , John Lee, Ian N Riopel, AUFFRAY Clement, John Bevan, Robert Grünke (trainfart) Music by: http://www.davidreesmusic.com

Den gömda koden
Se in i framtiden.

Den gömda koden

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 1, 2014 9:55


Mars 1977, en statsvetare i New York bygger en matematisk modell som klarar att i detalj förutspå resultatet vid regeringsvalet i Indien. Flera dagar innan valet så berättar modellen att den oväntade Morarji Desai kommer bli president, och hur länge han kommer klara av att sitta kvar vid makten. Mars 2012, en grupp svenska forskare sitter i ett litet kontor på Södermalm och frågar sin matematiska modell om vem som kommer vinna den svenska melodifestivalen? Och den svarar - helt korrekt vem som vinner (Loreen), vem som kommer tvåa (Danny Saucedo) och vem som kommer trea (Thorsten Flinck). Hur är det möjligt att siffror, logik och algoritmer korrekt kan berätta vad som kommer hända i framtiden? Personer som medverkar i Den gömda koden i detta program är Bruce Bueno de Mesquita,(Modern Nostradamus) som är professor vid New York University och samarbetar med CIA. Magnus Salgren doktor i datorlingvistik och forskningschef på Gavagai. Jussi Karlgren också doktor i datorlingvistik, forskare på Gavagai och adjungerad professor i språkteknologi på KTH.

WorldAffairs
Are Outcomes to National Security Challenges Predictable?

WorldAffairs

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 26, 2009 62:42


Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is an expert of game theory—the idea that people compete and that they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict events and his forecasts have a 90 percent accuracy rate. He boldly predicts that President Obama is unlikely to quash the terrorist influence in Pakistan, that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons, and that global warming will prove immune to government prescriptions. In his new book, The Predictioneer’s Game, Bueno de Mesquita uses his mathematical model to predict outcomes in business, national security, and people’s day-to-day lives based on the self-interest of decision makers. He joins the Council to detail his system of calculation that allows him to predict the outcomes of North Korean disarmament talks, the Middle East peace process, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Iran-Iraq relations following American troop withdrawals, and many other vexing national security challenges. Since the early 1980s, CIA officials have hired Bueno de Mesquita to perform more than a thousand predictions and a study by the CIA, now declassified, found that his predictions “hit the bull’s-eye” twice as often as its own analysts did.

Rob Wiblin's top recommended EconTalk episodes v0.2 Feb 2020
Bueno de Mesquita on Iran and Threats to U.S. Security

Rob Wiblin's top recommended EconTalk episodes v0.2 Feb 2020

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 11, 2008 61:14


Bruce Bueno de Mesquita of Stanford University's Hoover Institution and New York University talks to EconTalk host Russ Roberts about threats to U.S. security, particularly Iran. Bueno de Mesquita argues that Iran is of little danger to the United States. He then looks at what Iran has to gain and to lose by appearing to build a nuclear weapons program and actually using a nuclear weapon. He then goes on to examine the nature of other threats to the United States. The closing topic of the conversation is the peculiar incentives facing U.S. Presidents as their terms expire.

EconTalk Archives, 2008
Bueno de Mesquita on Iran and Threats to U.S. Security

EconTalk Archives, 2008

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 11, 2008 61:14


Bruce Bueno de Mesquita of Stanford University's Hoover Institution and New York University talks to EconTalk host Russ Roberts about threats to U.S. security, particularly Iran. Bueno de Mesquita argues that Iran is of little danger to the United States. He then looks at what Iran has to gain and to lose by appearing to build a nuclear weapons program and actually using a nuclear weapon. He then goes on to examine the nature of other threats to the United States. The closing topic of the conversation is the peculiar incentives facing U.S. Presidents as their terms expire.

EconTalk
Bueno de Mesquita on Iran and Threats to U.S. Security

EconTalk

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 11, 2008 61:14


Bruce Bueno de Mesquita of Stanford University's Hoover Institution and New York University talks to EconTalk host Russ Roberts about threats to U.S. security, particularly Iran. Bueno de Mesquita argues that Iran is of little danger to the United States. He then looks at what Iran has to gain and to lose by appearing to build a nuclear weapons program and actually using a nuclear weapon. He then goes on to examine the nature of other threats to the United States. The closing topic of the conversation is the peculiar incentives facing U.S. Presidents as their terms expire.

EconTalk Archives, 2007
Bueno de Mesquita on Reagan, Yeltsin, and the Strategy of Political Campaigning

EconTalk Archives, 2007

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 23, 2007 67:03


Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, NYU and the Hoover Institute, talks about the political economy of political campaigns and his forthcoming book, The Strategy of Campaigning: Lessons from Ronald Reagan and Boris Yeltsin. He talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the different strategies politicians pursue in attracting support from voters and party delegates, the persistence of negative campaigning, the cost to politicians of sticking to their principles and how the political choices of Reagan and Yeltsin intersected to end the Cold War and dissolve the Soviet Union.

EconTalk
Bueno de Mesquita on Reagan, Yeltsin, and the Strategy of Political Campaigning

EconTalk

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 23, 2007 67:03


Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, NYU and the Hoover Institute, talks about the political economy of political campaigns and his forthcoming book, The Strategy of Campaigning: Lessons from Ronald Reagan and Boris Yeltsin. He talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the different strategies politicians pursue in attracting support from voters and party delegates, the persistence of negative campaigning, the cost to politicians of sticking to their principles and how the political choices of Reagan and Yeltsin intersected to end the Cold War and dissolve the Soviet Union.

EconTalk Archives, 2007
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita on Democracies and Dictatorships

EconTalk Archives, 2007

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 12, 2007 66:55


Bruce Bueno de Mesquita of NYU and Stanford University's Hoover Institution talks about the incentives facing dictators and democratic leaders. Both have to face competition from rivals. Both try to please their constituents and cronies to stay in power. He applies his insights to foreign aid, the Middle East, Venezuela, the potential for China's evolution to a more democratic system, and Cuba. Along the way, he explains why true democracy is more than just elections--it depends crucially on freedom of assembly and freedom of the press.

EconTalk
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita on Democracies and Dictatorships

EconTalk

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 12, 2007 66:55


Bruce Bueno de Mesquita of NYU and Stanford University's Hoover Institution talks about the incentives facing dictators and democratic leaders. Both have to face competition from rivals. Both try to please their constituents and cronies to stay in power. He applies his insights to foreign aid, the Middle East, Venezuela, the potential for China's evolution to a more democratic system, and Cuba. Along the way, he explains why true democracy is more than just elections--it depends crucially on freedom of assembly and freedom of the press.

EconTalk at GMU
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita on Democracies and Dictatorships

EconTalk at GMU

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 12, 2007 66:55


Bruce Bueno de Mesquita of NYU and Stanford University's Hoover Institution talks about the incentives facing dictators and democratic leaders. Both have to face competition from rivals. Both try to please their constituents and cronies to stay in power. He applies his insights to foreign aid, the Middle East, Venezuela, the potential for China's evolution to a more democratic system, and Cuba. Along the way, he explains why true democracy is more than just elections--it depends crucially on freedom of assembly and freedom of the press.

EconTalk Archives, 2006
The Political Economy of Power

EconTalk Archives, 2006

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 14, 2006 88:02


Russ Roberts talks with Hoover Institution and NYU political scientist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita about his theory of political power--how dictators and democratically elected leaders respond to the political forces that keep them in office. This lengthy and intense conversation covers a wide range of topics including the evil political genius of Lenin, the dark side of US foreign aid, the sinister machinations of King Leopold of Belgium, the natural resource curse, the British monarchy in the 11th century, term limits and the inevitable failure of the standard methods of fighting world poverty.

EconTalk
The Political Economy of Power

EconTalk

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 14, 2006 88:02


Russ Roberts talks with Hoover Institution and NYU political scientist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita about his theory of political power--how dictators and democratically elected leaders respond to the political forces that keep them in office. This lengthy and intense conversation covers a wide range of topics including the evil political genius of Lenin, the dark side of US foreign aid, the sinister machinations of King Leopold of Belgium, the natural resource curse, the British monarchy in the 11th century, term limits and the inevitable failure of the standard methods of fighting world poverty.