Podcasts about Minsky moment

Yields important again - rising and worrisome. Hedge Fund titans getting nervous - talking bout a Minsky Moment. End of month - October is about to be in the books. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along... SHHHHH- Leaking some of my own news... eNVESTOLOGY moving to $25,000 minimum in 2025. Currently at $10,000 so if you want to get in to that investment management program with us for the current minimum - now is the time. Warm-Up - Yields important again - all of a sudden - Hedge Fund titans getting nervous - talking bout a Minsky Moment - End of month - October is about to be in the books Markets - Earnings season - Tech is about to bombard us - Gold near highs as China and India buying - Election Direction - putting money where mouth is... - Consumers are happier - UMICH - NAZ 100 - ATH? Yields - On the Move   Yields On The Move Auto Divergence - GM puts out some good numbers for recent quarter. -- GM now expects full-year adjusted EBIT of between $14 billion and $15 billion, or $10 and $10.50 a share, up from between $13 billion and $15 billion, or $9.50 and $10.50. - This marks the third time this year that GM has updated its guidance after beating Wall Street's top- and bottom-line expectations, led by the automaker's North American operations. -  Ford put out okay numbers, nothing exciting at this point - stock stuck in sideways action - Big differential with stock performance over past year GM/FORD YTD GM/Ford Longer New Threshold for Capital Gains - Starting in 2025, single filers will qualify for the 0% long-term capital gains rate with taxable income of $48,350 or less and married couples filing jointly are eligible with $96,700 or less. - Here is an idea  - for low basis stock - possibly gift to non-dependents that have low income and they can sell at lower capital gains rate --- Cannot do for dependents as their unearned income above $1,300 is the threshold. Consumer Sentiment - October Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final 70.5 vs. 68.9 Briefing.com consensus; October prelim was 68.9 - Markets reacted positively last Friday on this news. ---  Trivia: The University of Michigan (UMich) stopped releasing early versions of its Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) in 2013 as part of an agreement with the New York Attorney General's office. The university had previously received around $1 million a year from Thomson Reuters for this information. Hedge fund big boys - Getting nervous - Paul Tudor Jones - The founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment said he was worried that government spending could cause a big sell-off in the bond market, spiking interest rates higher. - Debt unsustainable and people just overlooking it - "Will we have a Minsky moment where all of a sudden there's a point of recognition that what they're talking about is fiscally impossible, financially impossible?” Jones said." - Commented how both candidates are spenders so that is not good - however, hard pressed to think that many of their spending promises will actually go through. Minsky Moment Defined - A Minsky moment is a sudden, catastrophic collapse of asset prices after a period of growth and stability. It's named after American economist Hyman Minsky (1911 to 1996), who believed that markets are inherently unstable and long periods of good markets eventually end in larger crises. - A Minsky moment occurs when excessive debt accumulation becomes unsustainable. Borrowers can no longer meet their debt obligations using their income, leading to a sudden decline in asset prices and a financial crisis.  Housing Market

Teil 4: Das Abendland marschiert in den AbgrundEin Kommentar von Wolfgang Effenberger. Mit der Ermordung des österreichischen Erzherzogs Franz Ferdinand am 28. Juni 1914 in Sarajewo begann der Countdown zum Ersten Weltkrieg. Kaum jemand fragte sich, welche Kräfte die minderjährigen Attentäter für diesen Terroranschlag instrumentalisiert und welche Motive hinter diesem Anschlag gestanden hatten (bis heute!). Die Märkte nahmen den Mord an dem österreichisch-ungarischen Thronfolgerpaar zunächst gelassen hin. Hatte es doch in jedem der drei vorangegangenen Sommer Balkankrisen bzw. Balkankriege gegeben, die alle nicht zu einem Großbrand geführt hatten - nicht zuletzt auch, weil Deutschland und Österreich-Ungarn immer wieder zwischen den Konfliktparteien vermittelt hatten.„Das kriegerische Ultimatum Österreichs an Serbien am Donnerstagabend, den 23. Juli 1914, veränderte die Marktwahrnehmung des Kriegsrisikos. Dies war der ‚Minsky-Moment‘(1), in dem Gier in Angst umschlug - Kollateralschaden der diplomatischen Krise, bevor ein Schuss gefallen war“ so der britische Wirtschafts-Professor vom "Institute of Contemporary British History", Richard Roberts: „Es gab ein sofortiges internationales Gerangel um Liquidität, d. h. die Veräußerung von Vermögenswerten und den Abzug von Krediten. Die Börsen auf dem Kontinent stürzten ab und es gab einen Ansturm auf die Sparkassen (nichtspekulative Banken)“(2). In London brachen die Devisen- und Geldmärkte ab Montag, ab dem 27. Juli 1914, zusammen.Ende Juli 1914 musste die Londoner Börse erstmals in ihrer 117-jährigen Geschichte schließen.Die englischen Aktienbanken, zu denen einige der größten Banken der Welt gehörten, machten sich zunehmend Sorgen über ihre Anfälligkeit bei einem Ansturm auf Einlagen. Ab Mittwoch, dem 29. Juli 1914, rationierten die Banken die Auszahlungen von Goldmünzen und gaben nur noch 5-Pfund-Noten der Bank of England, ihre kleinste Banknote, aus. Da eine 5-Pfund-Note in heutigem Geld etwa 400 Pfund entsprach, war sie für alltägliche Transaktionen unbrauchbar, sodass sich die Empfänger auf den Weg zur Bank of England machten, um ihre Banknoten in Gold-Sovereigns umzutauschen, wie es ihnen unter dem klassischen Goldstandard möglich war. Dies führte zu langen Warteschlangen, die den Anschein eines Ansturms auf die Bank erweckten. Ein Reporter der Financial Times fand "...eine Schlange von 200 bis 250 Menschen vor, die resigniert darauf warteten, an die Reihe zu kommen, um Zugang zu dem magischen Schalter zu erhalten, an dem Bargeld in einem stetigen Strom ausgeschüttet wurde...“(3). "Gold, Gold, Gold, Gold, hell und gelb; hart und kalt“.(4)Am Freitag, dem 31. Juli 1914, schloss die Londoner Börse zum ersten Mal in ihrer 117-jährigen Geschichte für fünf Monate ihre Pforten. Es wurde befürchtet, dass ein Ansturm auf die Banken beginnt, der den Zahlungsverkehr und die Kreditmechanismen des Landes bedroht - und dies alles, während Großbritannien am Rande eines Krieges schwankt und dann in das Armageddon stürzt. Vertriebene Makler und Jobber tummelten sich in der Throgmorton Street wie Ameisenschwärme um den Schutthaufen, so Richard Roberts...... hier weiterlesen: https://apolut.net/die-langen-schatten-des-ersten-weltkriegs-teil-4-von-wolfgang-effenberger+++Ihnen gefällt unser Programm? Machen wir uns gemeinsam im Rahmen einer „digitalen finanziellen Selbstverteidigung" unabhängig vom Bankensystem und unterstützen Sie uns bitte mit Bitcoin: https://apolut.net/unterstuetzen#bitcoinzahlungInformationen zu weiteren Unterstützungsmöglichkeiten finden Sie hier: https://apolut.net/unterstuetzen/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/45pEwTs Exploring Market Volatility and the Concept of a Minsky Moment In this episode of Dividend Cafe, David discusses the current volatility and directionlessness in the market, delving into the concept of a 'Minsky moment,' where periods of stability can give rise to instability. They differentiate between short-term market concerns rooted in equity valuations and longer-term economic issues tied to government debt. The episode explores the influence of large cap tech stocks within the S&P 500 and the cyclical nature of market dynamics. David also touches on the importance of maintaining a quality, counter-cultural investment portfolio to mitigate risks associated with economic instability and market euphoria. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:25 Understanding the Minsky Moment 03:10 Historical Context and Personal Insights 07:27 Application to Current Market Conditions 09:20 Government Debt and Long-Term Economic Impact 11:34 Cap-Weighted vs. Equal-Weighted Indexes 15:21 Final Thoughts and Father's Day Wishes Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

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Welcome to another episode of Outrage + Optimism, where we examine issues at the forefront of the climate crisis, interview change-makers, and transform our anger into productive dialogue about building a sustainable future. This week, we welcome back perennial friend of the podcast Nigel Topping as he joins Christiana, Tom and Paul on a fast-paced whistle stop analysis of the recent and up-coming events (Africa Climate Week, UN General Assembly and New York Climate Week) populating the climate change calendars. If that was not enough, the team also discusses the soon to be published IEA report, set to declare the ‘beginning of the end' of the fossil fuel industry, (watch out for the ‘Minsky Moment') as well as the much anticipated recent UNFCCC Global Stocktake report, with an invitation to view these reports in a more integrated way. Music this week comes from Nu Deco Ensemble and their beautiful piece of music titled 'Sacred Earth'. The orchestra's mission is to create compelling and transformative genre-bending musical experiences that inspire, enrich and connect new and diverse audiences and artists.   NOTES AND RESOURCES   Nigel Topping, Member of the Climate Change Committee (CCC) / Non-executive director of the UK Infrastructure Bank (UKIB) Twitter | LinkedIn    Fatih Birol's op-ed: Peak fossil fuel demand will happen this decade   THIS WEEK: Go to a March or Climate Action Near YOU - Fight Fossil Fuels Dot Net   -   MUSIC   Nu Deco Ensemble Website | Instagram | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube   Check out their Daft Punk and Dr. Dre concerts on YouTube   -   Learn more about the Paris Agreement.   It's official, we're a TED Audio Collective Podcast - Proof! Check out more podcasts from The TED Audio Collective   Please follow us on social media! Twitter | Instagram | LinkedIn

This part of the Summer used to be a slow period for news and events. But that's certainly not the reality this year when it comes to economics, markets, foreign affairs, and politics. A case point is the looming prospect of a U.S. government shutdown this Fall that is already increasing the tension in the air around the beltway. Weiss's Mike Edwards joins G3 to provide his political assessment on whether or not a shutdown is likely to occur. He also weighs in on the potential economic consequences of a shutdown and addresses G3”s questions regarding ongoing congressional support for Ukraine and how China may be viewing the latest chapter of Washington's game of fiscal chicken.Please check important disclosures at the end of this episode.Timestamps:Why is Mike convinced that a U.S. Government shutdown is likely going to happen, and what factors could delay it until December? [1:30]Why might members of the Freedom Caucus opt to vote against the budget bill, even if it includes some meaningful cuts? [9:53]Is Mike worried that the U.S. government is poised for a so-called "Minsky Moment"? [14:23]How could a government shutdown impact the markets and our economic growth? [20:00]How might China's leadership perceive America's annual game of fiscal chicken? [29:40]Resources:Hastert RuleLet's Hope Churchill Was Wrong Minsky MomentDisclosures: This podcast and associated content (collectively, the “Post”) are provided to you by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC (“Weiss”). The views expressed in the Post are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information in this Post has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the recording from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing in this Post should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You should consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Any health-related information shared on the podcast is not intended as medical advice or for use in self-diagnosis or treatment. Please consult a qualified healthcare professional before acting upon any health-related information on the podcast. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked in this Post. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement, investigation, verification, or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any information in any hyperlinked site. In no event shall Weiss be responsible for your use of a hyperlinked site. This is not intended to be an offer or solicitation of any security. Please visit www.gweiss.com to review related disclosures and learn more about Weiss.

Here's the deal; we're about to reveal a treasure trove of insights on how to create an unshakeable portfolio. My guest, Jason Buck and I, are going to guide you through the intricate world of defensive investment strategies. We'll unveil the secrets of long volatility and illustrate how commodities and cash can be your best friends in protecting your investments. We'll also dive into the often misunderstood VIX futures ETPs, and clue you in on the timing essential to playing long volatility right.Now, this isn't your average chat about volatility trading. Buck and I will introduce you to the Harry Brown Quadrant Model - your key to identifying growth, inflation, recession, and deflation assets. You'll learn about the exciting world of commodities, trend followers, and cryptocurrencies and how they can amplify your portfolio. We'll also talk about the dreaded Minsky Moment and its aftermath, the deleveraging effect. And if you've been curious about the changing faces in the market over the past decade, we'll decipher for you how this has impacted the volatility cycle.In the final leg of our discussion, we're going to talk about portfolio construction. We'll show you how a well-constructed portfolio can be your best defense against risk. We'll explore the roles of gold and crypto, should a catastrophic market shutdown occur. And to put a cherry on top, we're going to explore the fascinating world of branding, marketing, and capital efficiency. Don't miss out on the nuggets of wisdom Buck shares on market efficiency, and the unusual, yet memorable, box of cockroaches analogy he shares to remind us of the risks of investing. Tune in, absorb, and learn - this is going to be one enlightening ride!ANTICIPATE STOCK MARKET CRASHES, CORRECTIONS, AND BEAR MARKETS WITH AWARD WINNING RESEARCH. Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at www.leadlagreport.com and use promo code PODCAST30 for 2 weeks free and 30% off.Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.See disclosures for The Lead-Lag Report here: https://www.leadlagreport.com/static/termsandconditionsFoodies unite…with HowUdish!It's social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world's first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today:

At the height of the financial crisis in 2008, the late Queen Elizabeth II asked economists at the London School of Economics the obvious question "why did nobody notice it?". Doubtless there was much muttering and shuffling of feet at that point but there was at least one economist who had predicted what would happen (albeit some years earlier), namely Hyman P. Minsky. Before the Credit Crunch Minsky had been largely ignored by mainstream economists but now was his "Minsky Moment". His slogan that "stability created instability" was now taken up with some enthusiasm; his recommendation that it was essential that governments tightly regulated financial markets perhaps less so. In this first episode of Season Seven, your friendly neighbourhood economists, Pete and Gav explore Minksy's life and ideas and explain what a ‘Minsky Moment' is. Along the way you will consider whether you are a fox or a hedgehog, reflect on which parent had more influence on your social or political ideas and take part in a quiz which will establish your knowledge of financial innovations. Technical support as always comes from Nic The Ledge!

On Tuesday, March 28, the US Senate held hearings on the swift collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the 16th largest bank in the US. By late last year, it had assets of about $209 billion. SVB's collapse, the second largest bank failure in US history, sent shock waves through the financial system worldwide. Fears and doubt were compounded by the failures of Silvergate and Signature Banks in the US, and the acquisition of Switzerland's troubled Credit Suisse by cross-town rival UBS. Another challenged US bank, First Republic, raised the stakes. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, followed the Senate hearings closely, and sees banking changes ahead. He has sympathy for the lawmakers who said Federal regulators dropped the ball. "This [SVB collapse] is something the Federal Reserve is going to have to answer for," he says. BOVE also has his own questions about what happened at SVB from ignoring regulators' warnings to the propriety of bonuses paid at SVB. Regulations will now be tightened in multiple areas of the banking sector, according to BOVE. Meanwhile, MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, warns that the US may be in a so-called Minksy Moment, the end stages of an extended phase of economic prosperity that propels investors and consumers to take on excessive risk, leading eventually to a financial and economic disaster. Host JOHN AIDAN BYRNE raises the spectre of moral hazard, the slippery slope of endless rounds of bailouts and the consequent and dire threats to the foundations of the free enterprise system in America. Questions & Comments: Podcast@odeoncap.com

I Mercati verso una GRANDE FRENATA: vicini al MINSKY Moment?

Today we're talking about the topic of the day, week, month, and maybe even year — banking. Silicon Valley Bank's tech startup-centric clientele and remarkably high amount of uninsured deposits made it different from a lot of other banks. But there's a regulatory landscape in the background of SVB's downfall story. On the show today, Mehrsa Baradaran, a banking law professor at the University of California Irvine and author of the books “The Color of Money” and “How the Other Half Banks,” explains how regulatory changes made way back in the 80's landed us where we are now, the psychological nature of bank runs, and what regulators can learn from this SVB-triggered banking episode. In the News Fix, the case for incorporating more lentils and other climate-friendly foods into the American diet. Also, we’ll give an economics crash course on “Minsky moments.” And, why commercial real estate debt could become another problem for banks. Later, one listener shares why they’re on TikTok, and another listener reminds us to remember the folks who are hit hardest by climate change. And, Kaye Wise Whitehead, president of the National Women’s Studies Association, explains why she was wrong about motherhood. Here’s everything we talked about today: “How Silicon Valley Bank & Signature Bank Lobbied to Weaken Regulations That Could Have Prevented Collapse” from Truthout “Opinion | After Silicon Valley Bank collapse, scrap the deposit insurance limit” from The Washington Post “Federal Reserve and Lawmakers Eye Bank Rules After Collapse” from The New York Times “What Is a Minsky Moment? How Do World Debt Levels Look Now?” from Bloomberg “Why Americans should eat more lentils” from The Washington Post “Commercial Property Debt Creates More Bank Worries” from The Wall Street Journal What have you been wrong about lately? We want to hear your answer to the Make Me Smart question! Leave us a voice message at 508-U-B-SMART, and your submission may be feat

Today we're talking about the topic of the day, week, month, and maybe even year — banking. Silicon Valley Bank's tech startup-centric clientele and remarkably high amount of uninsured deposits made it different from a lot of other banks. But there's a regulatory landscape in the background of SVB's downfall story. On the show today, Mehrsa Baradaran, a banking law professor at the University of California Irvine and author of the books “The Color of Money” and “How the Other Half Banks,” explains how regulatory changes made way back in the 80's landed us where we are now, the psychological nature of bank runs, and what regulators can learn from this SVB-triggered banking episode. In the News Fix, the case for incorporating more lentils and other climate-friendly foods into the American diet. Also, we’ll give an economics crash course on “Minsky moments.” And, why commercial real estate debt could become another problem for banks. Later, one listener shares why they’re on TikTok, and another listener reminds us to remember the folks who are hit hardest by climate change. And, Kaye Wise Whitehead, president of the National Women’s Studies Association, explains why she was wrong about motherhood. Here’s everything we talked about today: “How Silicon Valley Bank & Signature Bank Lobbied to Weaken Regulations That Could Have Prevented Collapse” from Truthout “Opinion | After Silicon Valley Bank collapse, scrap the deposit insurance limit” from The Washington Post “Federal Reserve and Lawmakers Eye Bank Rules After Collapse” from The New York Times “What Is a Minsky Moment? How Do World Debt Levels Look Now?” from Bloomberg “Why Americans should eat more lentils” from The Washington Post “Commercial Property Debt Creates More Bank Worries” from The Wall Street Journal What have you been wrong about lately? We want to hear your answer to the Make Me Smart question! Leave us a voice message at 508-U-B-SMART, and your submission may be feat

I'm still head-down on drafting this novel, absorbed in increasing my productivity - with good news to report on that front. Also thinking about invisible friends and creativity. I had them. Did you?Preorder ROGUE FAMILIAR here https://jeffekennedy.com/rogue-familiarRUBY is out now! https://jeffekennedy.com/ruby FIVE GOLDEN RINGS is now available here: https://jeffekennedy.com/five-golden-rings SAPPHIRE is available here: https://jeffekennedy.com/sapphire and PLATINUM is available here https://jeffekennedy.com/platinum.THE LONG NIGHT OF THE RADIANT STAR, a midwinter holiday fantasy romance in the Heirs of Magic series, now available!! https://jeffekennedy.com/the-long-night-of-the-radiant-starSHADOW WIZARD, Book One in Renegades of Magic, continuing the epic tale begun in DARK WIZARD. https://jeffekennedy.com/shadow-wizard is out now! Including in audiobook!Interested in Author Coaching from me? Information here: https://jeffekennedy.com/author-coachingROGUE'S PARADISE is out (https://jeffekennedy.com/rogue-s-paradise). Buy book 1, ROGUE'S PAWN, here! (https://jeffekennedy.com/rogue-s-pawn) and book 2, ROGUE'S POSSESSION, here! (https://jeffekennedy.com/rogue-s-possession).If you want to support me and the podcast, click on the little heart or follow this link (https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/jeffekennedy).You can watch this podcast on YouTube here https://youtu.be/2oFMVQvU_DMSupport the show

https://theminskymoment.bandcamp.com/

https://theminskymoment.bandcamp.com/    

During the last big financial crisis there was a lot of talk about the work of Hyman Minsky. Even Janet Yellen, at the time the chair of the San Francisco Fed, said there were a lot of lessons in his work for central bankers. What did she mean? Or, as Steve Keen asks, has she actually read any of his work? This week Phil asks Steve what was the thinking behind Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis. And what was a Minsky moment, and why are we so far from one right now? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

JP Smith of the IRF is joined by Anne Stevenson-Yang Co-Founder and CEO of J Capital Research to discuss the political and economic outlook in China. ----more---- J Capital combines both top-down macro and bottom-up industry and company specific analysis in the research and consultancy service for institutional investors.   In this podcast, Anne discusses the prospects for Covid reopening in the context of Beijing's ongoing shift towards more authoritarian and autarkic policies. She outlines the case for continuing slow growth, pours cold water over the liklihood of a rebalancing towards consumer spending and explains why she doubts there will be a Minsky Moment for the Chinese economy.   Anne and JP debate the prospects for commodity markets in the light of the China slowdown and also whether investors should adopt a contrarian more positive approach towards Chinese equities, which have underperformed the majority of their peers in both emerging and developed markets over the past eighteen months.

Europe's energy issues threaten both businesses and households; the U.S. will be impacted by Europe's growing economic and social instabilities. We are facing a Minsky Moment brought on by more than a decade of burgeoning debt and risk-taking (consider the Minsky Moment framework explained in this Podcast).

(2/14/22) Now that The Big Game has passed, it's time to collect on those bets! Russia, Ukraine, the European Union, NATO, and Markets' response; Markets will probably re-test previous lows. If they hold, markets will be set for next rally up. The effectiveness of the truckers' Freedom Convoy; Why the Supply Chain isn't broken--it was shut down. How to deal with a hyper-active Fed. What will be the next Minsky Moment? Inflation is a monetary phenomenon created by government spending. With earnings season winding down, AutoZone and Advanced Auto Parts are good barometers of how the economy is faring. Prices are not going down, even as inflation cools. 1:50 - Post-Super Bowl Snackapolooza; The Russia Situation Explained 13:11 - Russia-Ukraine, Freedom Convoys, the Investor Guess-Right Ratio 29:21 - Why the Supply Chain Isn't Broken 43:06 - What AutoZone & Advanced Auto Parts Can Tell Us About the Economy RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP w Senior Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Markets Sell-off on Russia News" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbPkAsFhfvg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1&t=2s -------- Our previous show, "Where's the Value in 'Value Stocks?'" is here: youtube.com/watch?v=17xgjgtrWXA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2613s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/economic-stagnation-arrives-as-sugar-rush-fades/ https://realinvestmentadvice.com/this-time-is-different-the-feds-next-minsky-moment/ -------- Register for the next Retirement Right Lane class: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/evrplus_registration/?action=evrplusegister&event_id=23 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Truckers #SupplyChain #Russia #Ukraine #FreedomConvoy #Inflation #SuperBowl #ValentinesDay #Markets #Money #Investing

The drums of war are sounding louder than ever and on Friday night's ‘confirmation' that Russia is to invade Ukraine this week, both gold and silver surged nearly 2.3% whilst shares fell around the same. That this comes at exactly the time that the market is worried about an ‘extraordinary meeting' to be called by the Fed to bring forward rate hikes adds to instability facing them right now. This set up has all the ingredients of the so called Minsky Moment. We explain.

(2/14/22) Now that The Big Game has passed, it's time to collect on those bets! Russia, Ukraine, the European Union, NATO, and Markets' response; Markets will probably re-test previous lows. If they hold, markets will be set for next rally up. The effectiveness of the truckers' Freedom Convoy; Why the Supply Chain isn't broken--it was shut down. How to deal with a hyper-active Fed. What will be the next Minsky Moment? Inflation is a monetary phenomenon created by government spending. With earnings season winding down, AutoZone and Advanced Auto Parts are good barometers of how the economy is faring. Prices are not going down, even as inflation cools. 1:50 - Post-Super Bowl Snackapolooza; The Russia Situation Explained 13:11 - Russia-Ukraine, Freedom Convoys, the Investor Guess-Right Ratio 29:21 - Why the Supply Chain Isn't Broken 43:06 - What AutoZone & Advanced Auto Parts Can Tell Us About the Economy RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP w Senior Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Markets Sell-off on Russia News" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbPkAsFhfvg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1&t=2s -------- Our previous show, "Where's the Value in 'Value Stocks?'" is here: youtube.com/watch?v=17xgjgtrWXA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2613s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/economic-stagnation-arrives-as-sugar-rush-fades/ https://realinvestmentadvice.com/this-time-is-different-the-feds-next-minsky-moment/ -------- Register for the next Retirement Right Lane class: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/evrplus_registration/?action=evrplusegister&event_id=23 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Truckers #SupplyChain #Russia #Ukraine #FreedomConvoy #Inflation #SuperBowl #ValentinesDay #Markets #Money #Investing

Guest: David  Buckham | Founder and president at Monocle Solutions See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The collapse of the giant Chinese property developer Evergrande, the purchase of Newcastle United by the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia, the unprecedented shortage of truck drivers in the UK, skyrocketing fuel prices across Europe, the seemingly unwavering popularity of cryptocurrency (despite its obvious flaws), the incredible rise of global inequality, the spectre of inflation – these are just a few examples of the news headlines we are observing on a daily basis, a smorgasbord of chaos, disruption and uncertainty, underscored by the diminishing desire of the West to promote global democracy and ideals. Michael avery talks to David Buckham (CEO of Monocle), co-author of a fascinating page turner of a new book entitled The End of Money: The Great Erosion of Trust in Banking, China's Minsky Moment and the Fallacy of Cryptocurrency

Photo: The Panic of 1873 was a financial crisis that triggered an economic depression in Europe and North America that lasted from 1873 to 1877 or 1879 in France and in Britain. Here:  A bank run on the Fourth National Bank No. 20 Nassau Street, New York City, from Frank Leslie's Illustrated Newspaper, 4 October 1873. (Note: this is a Hyman Minsky moment—an economist—not Marvin Minsky, a leading AI scientist.) CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor CBS Audio Network @Batchelorshow Is Evergrande a 2008 Minsky Moment of global contagion?  @LizPeek @TheHill GLXXG https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/chinese-property-giant-s-implosion-unsettles-vulnerable-markets-20210921-p58th5.html

Market Meltdown Ahead? Will a Minsky moment lead to market crash in the near future? Financial expert Lance Roberts decodes the implications of what Jerome Powell said at the latest Federal Reserve press conference, why inflation will and will not be transitory, and why volatility in financial assets like stocks and bonds will be substantially higher from here. It's looking increasingly clear folks: The economy has taken on too much debt. Interest rates can't rise substantially without threatening to crash the entire system. But instead of exercising concern, Wall Street is partying hard with today's cheap liquidity in a speculative orgy. Unless the situation changes dramatically, Lance Roberts foresees an approaching meltdown moment for the markets that will shatter the complacency of today's investors. The interview then continues in Part 2, where Lance explains why he's so confident that caution the bond market is signaling will trump the current exuberance of the stock market. He also shares how he's currently positioning his portfolio to still be able to invest in today's markets while protecting against downside risk. See the YouTube Video for the charts and graphics: https://youtu.be/bOiBfK_kPWo

Market Meltdown Ahead? Will a Minsky moment lead to market crash in the near future? Financial expert Lance Roberts decodes the implications of what Jerome Powell said at the latest Federal Reserve press conference, why inflation will and will not be transitory, and why volatility in financial assets like stocks and bonds will be substantially higher from here. It's looking increasingly clear folks: The economy has taken on too much debt. Interest rates can't rise substantially without threatening to crash the entire system. But instead of exercising concern, Wall Street is partying hard with today's cheap liquidity in a speculative orgy. Unless the situation changes dramatically, Lance Roberts foresees an approaching meltdown moment for the markets that will shatter the complacency of today's investors. The interview then continues in Part 2, where Lance explains why he's so confident that caution the bond market is signaling will trump the current exuberance of the stock market. He also shares how he's currently positioning his portfolio to still be able to invest in today's markets while protecting against downside risk. See the YouTube Video for the charts and graphics: https://youtu.be/bOiBfK_kPWo

NOTE: Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow (7/27/21) Markets' rally continues, but the deviation between current market price and 50-DMA is getting more extreme. The longer this trend continues, the greater the chance for correction--now estimated to be at about 4%. Money flows remain strong, and Buy Signals have been triggered--providing some upward lift to markets. Hitorically, long periods of low volatility always lead to periods of high volatility--thank you, Mr. Minsky. - Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts -------- Articles mentioned in this report: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-the-markets-next-minsky-moment/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Stocks #Money #Finance

Taimur Hyat, COO of PGIM, shares his insights from PGIM’s latest megatrend report on climate investing. Lindsey Piegza, Chief Economist at Stifel, on the Fed meeting and the economy. Barry Ritholtz, Founder of Ritholtz Wealth Management, Bloomberg Opinion columnist, and Host of Masters in Business, on how your wealth may have been determined by your birth year. Brian Chappatta, Bloomberg Opinion debt columnist, on his column: “Powell Refuses to Humor Bond Traders’ Tantrums.” Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.

Dec 18 – After this week's wrap-up, Ron William at RW Advisory gives a big warning on the US stock market. Next, oil expert Marshall Adkins joins Financial Sense Newshour and says oil could be in for... Subscribe to our premium weekday podcasts: https://www.financialsense.com/subscribe

Alan Kohler puts the markets under the microscope in this week's episode of The Money Cafe as he is joined by Author and Publisher of The Pain Report, Jonathan Pain. The pair discuss what the Fed's been up to, why Jonathan is shorting the Nasdaq, the working from home revolution, and much more.   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A Correction of size-bale proportions is afoot. What this means to you and how to scan the landscape to see it. Tune In!

Hi,Welcome to BIG, a newsletter about the politics of monopoly. If you'd like to sign up, you can do so here. Or just read on...Today I'm going to wri... herehereLooting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profittrying to understandformer Nixon Treasury Secretary William Simon put itbailedno behavior to unethicaldeterioratedhe and Pelosialumspaper millscallsaverage buyoutbusiness for big-riggingthis 2017 storybuying $150 millionseveral instancesbought giant casinoroughly $6 trillionrentPetcois refusingwarned investors reportedsuch as health carepaidboughtan investment bankentire shadow banking systemtheir various captive institutionsexcellent articlein capitalist an email250 waysbuying junk bondscommercial mortgage bondsrestoredshe didn’t wantobservescorporate debt crisishereGoliath: The 100-Year War Between Monopoly Power and Democracygive everyone

    http://davidbrin.blogspot.com/2020/04/more-repercussions-in-plague-year-and.html https://www.davidbrin.com http://www.davidbrin.com/fiction/givingplague.html A Conversation with Physicist and Science Fiction Author David Brin about his work and his recent post: More repercussions in a plague year… and some long term (excerpted here) : And yes, some foresee all this accelerating the exodus of the uber-rich, abandoning us to simmer in festering cities and suburbs. Connecticut, Wyoming and New Zealand have seen such influx. Certainly there is a “prepper” wing of oligarchy that’s bought up whole mountain ranges in Patagonia, Siberia and under the sea. I portrayed that mind set in The Postmanand in Earth and in Existence. Of course the smarter half of the zillionaire caste wants no part of such insanity. Nor will such preparations avail the selfishness-fetishists an iota, even if the fit truly hits the shan. There are five reasons why this masturbatory survivalist fantasy is utter proof of mental defectiveness. Finally Smart Sovereignty: – Whether this Minsky Moment triggers revitalization and waves of new-creative solutions by an empowered citizenry… or one of Marx’s purportedly “inevitable” stages of spiral into revolution… may depend on to what extent we revive civic goodwill and use new technologies to enhance logical, fact-centered. pragmatic civil discourse. Recall that earlier communication techs — e.g. the printing press, radio and loudspeakers — all led first to polemical horror shows that made things much worse… before folks sussed the new media and learned to parse truth from populist lies, making things much, much better. That natural progression took decades, though. Time we simply do not have. == The jury is still out == I left aside possible outcomes that seem more “science fictional”… …e.g. what-if there is more to this virus than meets the eye? We already know that corona viruses are not like the flu. Flu stays in business by mutating rapidly, every year, forcing new kinds of vaccines to be developed. (Again, see my predictive short story “The Giving Plague,” which dives into the many ways that viruses and parasites “negotiate” with their hosts.) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A Conversation with Physicist and Science Fiction Author David Brin about his work and his recent post: More repercussions in a plague year... and some long term (excerpted here) : And yes, some foresee all this accelerating the exodus of the uber-rich, abandoning us to simmer in festering cities and suburbs. Connecticut, Wyoming and New Zealand have seen such influx. Certainly there is a “prepper” wing of oligarchy that’s bought up whole mountain ranges in Patagonia, Siberia and under the sea. I portrayed that mind set in The Postmanand in Earth and in Existence. Of course the smarter half of the zillionaire caste wants no part of such insanity. Nor will such preparations avail the selfishness-fetishists an iota, even if the fit truly hits the shan. There are five reasons why this masturbatory survivalist fantasy is utter proof of mental defectiveness. Finally Smart Sovereignty: - Whether this Minsky Moment triggers revitalization and waves of new-creative solutions by an empowered citizenry... or one of Marx's purportedly "inevitable" stages of spiral into revolution... may depend on to what extent we revive civic goodwill and use new technologies to enhance logical, fact-centered. pragmatic civil discourse. Recall that earlier communication techs -- e.g. the printing press, radio and loudspeakers -- all led first to polemical horror shows that made things much worse... before folks sussed the new media and learned to parse truth from populist lies, making things much, much better. That natural progression took decades, though. Time we simply do not have.

John Authers, Senior Editor for Bloomberg Markets, and economist Bob Barbera, Professor at Johns Hopkins University, discuss why a Minsky moment may be looming. Barry Ritholtz, Founder of Ritholtz Wealth Management and Host of Masters of Business, discusses why BlackRock's ESG mission can't be executed. Michael Sonnenfeldt, Chairman of TIGER 21, on how the ultra-wealthy are investing. Phil Brendel, Senior Credit Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, on PG&E reaching settlement with creditors but still facing block from Governor Newsom. Hosted by Lisa Abramowicz and Paul Sweeney.

Welcome to Finance and Fury,  For the past few Monday episodes been talking about complexity theory and markets – check out Last two eps – went through phase transition, feedback loops and how markets become fragile and some signs this is happening Most recent episode: https://financeandfury.com.au/how-do-you-know-that-the-share-markets-are-likely-to-be-in-for-a-collapse/ Previous episode: https://financeandfury.com.au/how-to-analyse-share-markets-by-treating-them-as-a-complex-system/ When applying complexity theory to current state of financial markets – exhibit characteristic of the point of criticality Lack of resilience (fragility – glass v plastic vase), flipping feedback loops = critical tipping points where markets are unstable In any system - the interaction between chaos and order builds resilience - The criticality of the balance between order and deterministic chaos is an optimal evolutionary solution for systems – too many feedback loops create a loss of resilience Making it dangerous – likely to enter chaos and then an alternative stable state – think of the gym – overtraining Know first hand – used to do 10-12 hard workouts a week – after almost 2 years body would shut down Today’s ep – looking at the things that have created a lack of resilience and what might shatter the vase Transitions are not inheritably negative – some may trend to order, not disorder Important point it the identification and the awareness of criticality – and the direction of the transition And the sensitivity of a complex system to parameters – i.e. ‘deterministic chaotic behaviour’ - ‘chaos is when the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future’ Butterfly effect - a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state First – visualisation or measurement tool - basin of attraction – what is the pull to an unstable state – Imagine a normal distribution – dome shape – bottom – 0 – 100 – goes up – peak at 50 – basin of attraction is spread out equally over the whole 0-100 - Now say some point of attraction occurs – the basin of attraction narrows something pulls of the peak down the peak An attractor's basin of attraction is the region of the phase space, over which iterations are defined, such that any point (any initial condition) in that region will eventually be iterated into the attractor. Characteristics and current states of the market – what feedbacks reduced resilience Extreme indebtedness – i.e. debt saturation – think of the economy like a cloth – it has a limit on absorption – ShamWow can absorb a lot – but a small pond or swimming pool? Think of money as the water and the economy as the cloth - has debt tolerance limits Despite the record-low interest rates available to service such debt - The falling productivity of new credit lending is visibly at play. (decreasing marginal effectiveness of lending) – Bank policies are for low-risk high collateral lending – where does it go? Housing Over last half-decade or so – flipped 20/80 to 80/20 residential to business lending Rephrased in the context of complexity theory, the basin of attraction is not as steep as before. Extreme leverage to buy financial assets - NYSE leverage is at all-time highs. A long trip up the basin of attraction. Extreme monetary policymaking brought the cost of capital close to zero, depriving the system from resilience through preservation of so-called ‘zombie companies’ and other mis-allocation of resources – misallocation of resources The market is no longer a marketplace where buyers and sellers meet for exchanges - rather a buyers frenzy Negative feedback loops flipped into positive feedback loops - creating a singularity between public and private flows in hovering up assets price-insensitively - one-sided regular flows Extreme valuations - markets have reached bubble valuations - disconnected to fundamentals Using most valuation metrics - the corporate debt to GDP, the price to book, enterprise value on sales and EBITDA US equity valuations at all-time highs when compared to trend growth - Extreme valuations for bonds and equities simultaneously, now unable to hedge one another. Patterns of correlation between major asset classes. Bonds and equities have been negatively correlated in last few decades – recently have been positively correlated – worth watching – bonds might not be the hedge Inability for valuations on Bonds to progress from here – mathematically - due to zero-bound on interest rates and pricing mechanics on bonds – prices are capped out Other anomalies like European bonds trading at negative yields Changing the structure of markets - the rise of passive strategies / ETFs - creates price-insensitivity of share markets Current investments - one-sided risk of the investor community, long-only, fully invested, short volatility The shift from active managers to passive managed ETFs in past years (for almost $3trn) is only the tip of the iceberg, and encapsulates the difference between risk-conscious and risk-insensitive investing, resulting in the clash between under-weighted longs (active managers) and over-performing longs (passive vehicles). Beyond ETFs, other quasi-passive players prosper as they mechanically go long with leverage, follow the trend or sell vol: the end result is that today it’s all one single giant position, and market risk became a systemic risk. The structure of markets resembles that of a pressure cooker, owing to the synchronicity of three elements:massive concentration of passive or quasi-passive players (90% of US daily equity flows), massive concentration in few fund players (top 4 Asset Management shops account for almost $15trn in AUM), massive concentration/correlation of investment strategies (90% are either volatility-linked or trend-linked).   The Question then becomes one of identification of such critical tipping points What is the level beyond which a small change can provoke a large swing, a big transformation? What is the last snowflake on the snowpack that the system can take in before transformation? May be several critical switching points, not just one, on one key variable. The resilience of the system may degrade to some tipping point where a small perturbation can push it into another state. The loss of resilience makes it flip, eventually, at a point. Like all systems – you have within and from outside – the system and the environment   Tipping points within financial markets - where can we go from here? Valuations may go higher – occurrence of a ‘melt-up’ – US started more QE, same with other central bankers - a possible scenario for markets to continue through their threshold – more fuel in the tanks based around leverage Cash balances are thin, while leverage is already high - Most investors classed are now close to full investment, between 90% and 100% of disposable assets: private clients, pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, mutual funds, hedge funds – little cash left to put into markets though – so all new funds But Debt metrics are beyond classic measures of tolerance in several countries – USA, Japan, now in China and Turkey, Marginal effectiveness of new lending is on the decline – when measured using the credit-to-GDP gap’ of the BIS – shows that the new money being printed and put into the markets isn’t effective in stimulating any growth When will Quantitative Easing reach its peak – seemed to be running out in mid-2017 Still an active tool in the hands of Central Banks, although capacity constraints are known - but is now expected to continue for a little while before it goes into reverse – which would trigger a big collapse of markets But the tipping point may be already in - 2017 marked the peak in Quantitative Easing at $3.7trn of asset purchases $300bn p.m. As this liquidity tide goes off - markets will start to face their first real crash test in 10 years Only after the QE is ceased will we know what is real and what is not in today’s markets We will be living through the unintended consequences for many years - zombie companies let to live and saturate the system blocking the rise of newcomers - political instability and populism (critical income inequality).   Endogenous Tipping Point: The Market Itself – Every element of today’s markets has a potential tipping point Now that Central Banks controlling markets – them stepping away from QE, the ‘momentum and volatility factors’ entering turbulent waters are the first suspects - as passive and quasi-passive investors battle one another in a race to the bottom. A sudden rupture can be endogenous, and come from within Financial booms can't go on indefinitely, they can fall under their own weight Obviously, as always, there can be exogenous triggers too, tipping the balance and leading to a rapidly changing state. Exogenous Triggers - It is because we are the edge of chaos and feedback loops are broken, system is degrading and at risk of deep transformations that triggers matter. In normal circumstances they would matter less and you may expect policymakers to have more of a control upon intervention. May the trigger be Cryptocurrencies? Left unchecked by regulators, they have grown to a level where they must matter for global systemic risks, at 750 billion dollars, with emphasis on its volatility – come back to this in another ep May the trigger be China? The extreme credit expansion of recent years seems a textbook case study to prove wrong the theories of a Minsky Moment. A total on- and off-balance sheet bank credit of 40trn, at almost 4 times GDP, a credit expansion well above trend (in danger zone according to BIS credit-to-GDP ratio gap measures), Corporate China at above 250% debt on GDP in only few years, a budget deficit at 13% of GDP (including local authorities) are classic recipes for overdue system failure. May the trigger be inflation? Presumed by most to be dead, it is showing signs of resurrection, all the while as wages started to react to a tight job market in the US. US rates are stationing right at multi-decades downward trend-lines, the break of which would wreak havoc. May the trigger be a ‘USD shortage’ or de-dollarization? The drop in the USD creates a drop in what most assets are priced in May the trigger be political risk - political framework itself may be on the verge of a regime shift under the weight of ever-rising ‘wealth effect’ of QE The populism in political circles that was visible in 2016 (Trump, Brexit, Italian Referendum) and 2017 (Germany, Catalonia, Eastern Europe) is therefore expected to play an even bigger role in 2020. There will be an inevitable critical transformation in politics sooner or later due to economics – created by politicians and banking groups - In the words of Will Durrant: “in progressive societies the concentration [of wealth] may reach a point where the strength of number in the many poor rivals the strength of ability in the few rich; then the unstable equilibrium generates a critical situation, which history has diversely met by legislation redistributing wealth or by revolution distributing poverty.” Rephrased by Justice Louis Brandeis, ‘’we can have vast wealth in the hands of a few or we can have democracy. But we cannot have both.’’   In Summary – All the signs are there but what the trigger is – who knows – next week we will look at the chances of Australian market going up from here – RBA increased M1 massively in the past few months – sign of the first QE moves which would push market prices up   Thanks for listening, if you would like to get in contact you can do so here: http://financeandfury.com.au/contact      

Signe Krogstrup (Danmarks Nationalbank), Heron Belfon (Jubilee Caribbean), Irene Monasterolo (Vienna University of Economics and Business), Paolo Mauro (IMF), Ulrich Volz (SOAS Centre for Sustainable Finance). The SOAS Centre for Sustainable Finance and the Bretton Woods Project host a discussion at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as part of the World Bank Group and IMF Annual Meetings’ Civil Society Policy Forum. This session will explore the IMF’s work on climate since it was identified by the Fund as an ‘emerging issue’ in 2015, including looking at what steps the Fund has taken thus far in the areas of research and policy. The panel will also discuss the Fund’s role with respect to the looming climate crisis, focusing on the already-existing impact of climate change on climate vulnerable countries’ debt profiles, as well as the threat to global macroeconomic stability presented by undisclosed climate risks. Panellists included Signe Krogstrup, the Assistant Governor and Head of Economics and Monetary Policy at Danmarks Nationalbank, the Danish central bank; Heron Belfon, the Director of Jubilee Caribbean; Irene Monasterolo, Assistant Professor of Climate Economics and Finance at Vienna University of Economics and Business; and Paolo Mauro, the Deputy Director of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department. The discussion was chaired by Ulrich Volz, the Founding Director of the SOAS Centre for Sustainable Finance. Speakers: Signe Krogstrup (Danmarks Nationalbank), Heron Belfon (Jubilee Caribbean), Irene Monasterolo (Vienna University of Economics and Business), Paolo Mauro (IMF), Ulrich Volz (SOAS Centre for Sustainable Finance). Organiser: Centre for Sustainable Finance, Brettonwoods Project Released by: SOAS Economics Podcast

Dette er 49. episode av Tid er penger - En podcast med Peter Warren. Peter og Sverre snakker om Minsky Moment, Saudi Aramco, Uber, opsjoner, været på Sicilia, banksjefer og forever-QE. Vil du stille spørsmål, diskutere finans eller bare være oppdatert på informasjon om podcasten, kan du bli medlem av Facebook-gruppen til podcasten: https://www.facebook.com/groups/1743019995996344/ Linker nevnt i episoden: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment https://www.ig.com/no/opsjonshandel https://www.yr.no/sted/Italia/Sicilia/ https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/11/business/dealbook/bank-ceos-congress.html https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bank-ceo-hearing-bank-ceos-ready-for-first-gathering-before-congress-in-a-decade/ https://www.dn.no/finans/#/detaljer/NAS.OSE https://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Boers-finans/2019/04/ABG-gjoer-storinvestering-i-folkefinansiering?r=refresh https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5399897/The-World-Dubais-map-islands-resurrected.html https://www.google.no/flights/?f=0&gl=no#f=0&flt=/m/05l64./m/01f08r.2019-05-02.OSLDXB0EK160*/m/01f08r./m/05l64.2019-05-05;c:NOK;e:1;a:EK*EK;sc:b;sd:1;t:f;sp:0.NOK.29731 https://www.livemint.com/industry/banking/ecb-president-mario-draghi-in-rare-move-sounds-concern-over-fed-s-independence-1555237146174.html https://no.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugo_Ch%C3%A1vez https://investor.dn.no/#!/Valuta/Y74/Bitcoin https://www.marketwatch.com/story/lyft-ipo-5-things-the-ride-hailing-company-just-revealed-2019-03-01 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-12/uber-ipo-investors-should-buckle-up?srnd=opinion https://www.dn.no/marked/forbrukslanbanker/optin-bank/rikard-storvestre/ikke-engang-bitcoin-svinger-like-mye-som-denne-bankaksjen/2-1-573637 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D4J85W7U8AAryIN.png:large https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-15/greek-debt-is-a-favorite-of-bond-investors https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-04-12/aramco-bonds-sink-for-second-day-video https://www.afr.com/markets/market-data/bonds/the-lessons-in-saudi-giant-s-monster-bond-deal-20190415-p51e78 https://www.ft.com/content/57fe6a20-5bce-11e9-939a-341f5ada9d40

In Episode #353, Professor Raphael Douady and Ron Rimkus, CFA, discuss the evolution of risk management practices and where we are today. Douady believes even with the “quantitative-ization” of risk management and increased sophistication in data analysis, investors need to strive to uncover the invisible or hidden risks of their investment portfolios. Risk management strategies that only focus on the visible risks could exacerbate the invisible risks inadvertently. Douady also explains that the evaluation of risk is not just about fat tails, it is also about where the risks are coming from. Douady’s “Dominant Factor Analysis” is one method that helps investors determine dominant factors and the possible sources of risks in the portfolio as a window to portfolio sensitivities under different market conditions. Finally, Douady warns that investors cannot seriously avoid economic cycles and notes it is better for investors to be prepared for a “Minsky Moment” rather than trying to predict it.

John and I have been talking for years about finally getting to the dreaded Minsky Moment, that time when an overly debt laden economy ceases to function. We've seen it in Venezuela and in Zimbabwe. Could it happen here? That's the huge question. We may not be Venezuela or Zimbabwe, we could easily see another financial crisis within the next few years. And based upon market behavior, states getting ready to go bust and other bleak indicators, that moment could soon be upon us. 

John and I have been talking for years about finally getting to the dreaded Minsky Moment, that time when an overly debt laden economy ceases to function. We've seen it in Venezuela and in Zimbabwe. Could it happen here? That's the huge question. We may not be Venezuela or Zimbabwe, we could easily see another financial crisis within the next few years. And based upon market behavior, states getting ready to go bust and other bleak indicators, that moment could soon be upon us. 

Clarity Financial Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts w Dir. Financial Planning Richard Rosso on Houston Hurricanes, Hurricane Florence, Ray Dalio's Debt Cycles, and Hyman Minsky's Minsky Moment in the economy.

We discuss Brian's recent trip to China and now since he has been there for two weeks is a certified Asia expert. The conversation follows silly anecdotes on how Brian broke his foot, to deep analysis on the definitions of communism and capitalism. We also cover the bull to bear run in Bitcoin over the past few weeks and debate over whether this might be a "Minsky Moment" for cryptocurrencies (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment). Finally, there is a crypto-style parlay of a bet we made on the cast before this NFL season (Brian bet on the Dolphins to make the playoffs #dumb). Shoutout to our fans in Japan! We didn't visit you on our Asia tour, but we'll get to you next time. Show notes and time stamps: 0:00 - China trip recap 25:00 - minsky moment 32:30 - AFCrypto bet - Warren Buffett was announced as the face of Cherry Coke as it launched in China in April 2017. Berkshire Hathaway is the largest single shareholder in Coca-Cola, Buffett is a superstar in China, and apparently he personally loves Cherry Coke. How is he still that healthy. - The US has around 800 military bases abroad. Jesus! - The football bet is for ~0.061 ether, equivalent to $20 at the start of the 2017 NFL season.

CNBC warns China's Central Bank just warned of a major collapse in asset values. This was done after a reserve requirement cut. Corporate debt is high and household debt is rising too quickly. They're worried about a Minsky Moment. Watch what they do, not what they say. DOW just closed above 23,000 with IBM taking off. Stock market is way too high, how long can it continue. Probably through the end of the year. Energy markets 500k barrells at risk due to geo-political risk. It's been a while since it affected the energy market. Venezuela's production continues to tank. Shale market is marginal. They're not making any money at it. Bond yields moving up again giving a boost to financial stocks. Emerging markets are doing quite well. Nothing seems to be slowing down the markets. Everyone is very very happy, regardless of the real economy's situation. Mining industry costs continue to escalate. All in costs are rising. 

Idag möter du Martin Enlund, chefstrateg och Henrik Unell valutastrateg på Nordea Markets som diskuterar senaste veckans händelser på de globala finansmarknaderna. Sist vi träffades pratade vi om lycklig depression och botox-ekonomi. Vi fortsätter lite på samma tema denna vecka. Svenskafolket verkar inte ha så hög framtidstro samtidigt som industrin ser fortsatt ljust på framtiden enligt Konjunkturinstitutets senaste mätning. Vad tror ni om marknaderna generellt inför det 4e kvartalet? Enligt Stefan Ingves rapport inför Finansutskotten förra veckan finns det en tydlig trend uppåt i inflationen i Sverige. Något som Stefan Ingves och hans Riksbankskollegor jobbat hårt för – kommer han lyckas med inflationsmålet? Den norska centralbanken sänker styrräntan från 1% till 0,75 procent . Sänkningen är den andra de senaste fyra månaderna sedan den norska ekonomin tappat tempo i spåren av de rasande oljepriserna och det flaggas för mer. Hur drabbar det oss i Sverige? Fed höjde inte räntan som vi pratade i om i förra podden – så vi blickar istället mot Europeiska centralbanken. Har de någon makt över de globala ekonomierna? Vilken är deras strategi? Är Europa på väg att pigga på sig – vilken är er bedömning av läget? Kina är ett dominerande mörkt moln för många av världens finansministrar. Hur är status? - Du Martin har ett favorituttryck – Minsky Moment – vad innebär det? Och hur kopplar du ihop det med Kinas situation?

George Magnus is an independent economist, consultant and commentator. He has a distinguished career that started with some teaching assignments but was spent mostly in the financial services industry. Before going solo in 2012, George was the Senior Economic Adviser at UBS Investment Bank having previously been the Chief Economist for 10 years. In almost 30 years of working experience in the City, he has held senior positions at SG Warburg, Chase Manhattan Bank and Bank of America. He is a well-known and highly regarded economist in the financial community and has won many accolades in professional surveys as one of the top global economists. George is well known for his commentaries and interviews in newspapers, journals, TV and radio, most notably for the Financial Times, CNBC and Bloomberg. George, gained widespread acclaim for declaring in early 2007 that we would face a Minsky Moment - or systemic banking crisis - and a decade of slow growth, has extensive experience of writing on, explaining and speaking about the global economy.   His first book, The Age of Ageing: How Demographics Are Changing The Global Economy And Our World was published in 2008. His latest book, Uprising: Will Emerging Markets Shape or Shake the Global Economy was published at the end of 2010, and assesses, in particular, whether China is set to dominate the world system. Find Out:  about bubbles and why we never learn from them. how demographics are changing the world economy through declining fertility and rising life expectancy. about the need for a policy agenda to cope with an ageing society. why age-related commitments and promises such as pensions and health care schemes are unaffordable. why there is a pension crisis to come and how it mimics a Ponzi-scheme. about the fastest ageing country - China - and what problems will exist in the future. if economies can experience positive growth rates if population declines by relying on robotics.     how the second machine age may bring problems to those whose jobs have been automated. if there will be a strong Luddite presence in the future given the pace of technological change. about the failure of the BRIC emerging countries to live up to their expectations. if China is all hype. what the real problem is in Europe in terms of its monetary union. why the EU should have started with a fiscal and political union first and then build a monetary union on top.   about George Magnus’ band ‘Prisom’ and his love of Led Zeppelin and Pink Floyd. Visit www.economicrockstar.com/georgemagnus to view all the links mentioned in this episode. You Are An Economic Rockstar!      

The show starts with Todd discussing the divergence in the market. Dr. Joseph Salerno of the Mises Institute describers the Minsky Moment and then goes on to discuss the Fed with Alan. Jim Zauderer joins Alan to talk about a variety of subjects. Redmond Weissenberger of the Mises Institute in Canada describes the vagaries of the Canadian healthcare system. The show ends with Bubba talking about the declining economy.

Alasdair Macleod and Eric Coffin return. A Minsky Moment is a sudden major collapse of asset values, which is part of the credit cycle. This radio show has no shortage of doom and gloom guests, some of which are high profile but not one of them carry as much weight as an institution like Morgan Stanley who is suggesting China may very well face their Minsky Moment, not unlike the one the U.S. faced in 2008. Alasdair Macleod will talk about malinvestment in China, which comes along with excessive debt money creation and what the possible impact will be on gold. Recent weakness in copper and iron ore prices is reportedly a result of a decline in credit creation in China. In light of the China story, we will ask Eric Coffin to comment on a copper company or two that can weather a worst case scenario for copper and also ask him for a couple of his top picks among gold exploration companies. Time permitting, your host will also comment on one or two of his top picks.