Quantitative methods used to simulate climate
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5 episodes with climate models
3 episodes with climate models
3 episodes with climate models
4 episodes with climate models
4 episodes with climate models
3 episodes with climate models
2 episodes with climate models
4 episodes with climate models
3 episodes with climate models
Sarah Russell is the founder and managing director of Project Bellwether. Her career has evolved from healthcare into technology more broadly. She is a startup founder, tech executive, and practicing physician working at the nexus of business, planetary health, and machine learning. After founding her first company, she spent the next decade transitioning between entrepreneurial roles and executive management in large organizations such as the VA and Google. Currently, she is focused on understanding our changing natural world and the implications for businesses, states, and communities. At X, The Moonshot Factory, she leads a team of senior-level experts working on complex machine learning problems, using earth observation data and imagining new categories of business. Highlights from the Show Understanding Climate Risks The impact of climate change on severe weather events. The insurance industry's responsibility in addressing these challenges. Focus on Wildfires The growing concern of wildfires and their implications for insurers. Development of targeted solutions to manage wildfire risks. Innovative Products Bellwether Predict A forecasting tool for severe weather probabilities. Bellwether Rapid Response Aerial imagery technology for quick damage assessment post-disaster. Bellwether Insure A product designed to help insurers understand and manage wildfire risk accumulation. Absolute Risk Scores Introduction of absolute risk scores for more accurate risk assessments. Comparison with traditional relative risk categorizations. Future Aspirations Vision for predicting interactions between the natural world and built environments. The role of advanced data analytics and machine learning in transforming risk management. Collaboration in the Industry The importance of collaboration among insurers to effectively tackle climate risks. Potential benefits of an integrated approach for communities facing natural disasters. Conclusion: This episode highlights the significant challenges climate change poses to the insurance industry, particularly regarding wildfires. We explored innovative solutions like advanced forecasting tools and rapid response technologies that enhance disaster preparedness. By utilizing absolute risk scores and data analytics, insurers can make informed decisions to better protect communities. Collaboration within the industry is essential for effectively addressing these challenges and building a more resilient future. This episode is brought to you by The Future of Insurance thought leadership series, available globally from Amazon in print, Kindle and Audible audiobook. Follow the podcast at future-of-insurance.com/podcast for more details and other episodes. Music courtesy of Hyperbeat Music, available to stream or download on Spotify, Apple Music, and Amazon Music and more.
God's Debris: The Complete Works, Amazon https://tinyurl.com/GodsDebrisCompleteWorksFind my "extra" content on Locals: https://ScottAdams.Locals.comContent:Politics, Rural Population Counting, Climate Models, Gold Card Citizenship Sales, Columbia Antisemitism, Political Party Gender Gap, Chuck Schumer's Progressive Judges, Ukraine Deal Impossibility, Trump Maher Meeting, J6 Non-Violent Protesters, Deregulation Popularity, Ezra Klein's Fake News Silo, Conor McGregor's Politics, NYT Anonymous Sources, Kamala Democrat Popularity, Stephen A. Smith, ESPN, F47 Fighter Jet, DOGE DOE, Cell Phone Radiation, Zig Zag Shotgun Drones, Israel Hamas War, Private Health Insurance Group, Scott Adams~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~If you would like to enjoy this same content plus bonus content from Scott Adams, including micro-lessons on lots of useful topics to build your talent stack, please see scottadams.locals.com for full access to that secret treasure.
Andrew Jones, Co-Founder and Executive Director of Climate Interactive joins us to explore groundbreaking climate simulation tools shaping global policy decisions. We dive into Climate Interactive's En ROADS model, used by Congress members and educators worldwide, and we discuss its role in making climate science actionable. Andrew highlights effective climate solutions, challenges less impactful ones, and emphasizes the importance of reducing fossil fuel use and protecting forests. Tune in for a deep dive into how data-driven simulations bridge the gap between climate knowledge and action. If you want to help us reach our goal of planting 30k trees AND get a free tree planted in your name, visit www.aclimatechange.com/trees to learn how.
Climate models play a crucial role in the current understanding of ongoing climate change and thus influence policy decisions. Yet there is little public debate about climate models, how they work, or their history. We have discussed what the history of different global modelling models is and what different categories of modelling we might encounter or what limitations they have in climate issues with Beatrice Cointe. We look at climate models based on thermodynamics, biosphere models or models based on systems theory. It is the category of models based on systems theory, called 'integrated assessment models', that Beatrice Cointe focuses on. In the podcast, she summarizes their history, as well as the debates around problematic aspects of modeling. She also mentions how work on these models continued across the Iron Curtain even during the rigid Cold War. Beatrice Cointe also talks about where the 1.5°C target came from in the Paris Agreement and why the target of around 2°C has a slightly different history and how it relates to the fate of small island states. We also took a closer look at what emissions scenarios are, how many there are and what they all contain. This episode was recorded thanks to the support of Heinrich Böll Stiftung in Prague.
Roy Clark is a retired engineer with over 30 years of experience in new product and process development, including optical and spectroscopic measurements in adverse environments. He received his MA in chemistry from the University of Oxford University and his Ph.D. in chemical physics from Sussex University (UK; 1976). He started his own independent research on climate change in 2007. His particular interest is time-dependent or dynamic-surface energy transfer and the calculation of surface temperatures from first principles. He has published several technical articles on climate change and co-wrote the book ‘Finding Simplicity in a Complex World – The Role of the Diurnal Temperature Cycle in Climate Energy Transfer and Climate Change' with the late Prof. Arthur Rörsch. 00:00 Introduction and Guest Introduction 00:01 Background on Climate Modeling Errors 01:31 Manabe's 1967 Climate Model and Its Impact 03:42 Historical Context of Climate Models 08:07 Modern Climate Models and Their Flaws 12:47 NASA's Role in Climate Modeling 20:09 DOE and National Labs' Involvement 29:20 Critique of Global Mean Temperature Record 35:44 Radiative Forcing and Surface Temperature 53:16 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Slides for this podcast: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries A Nobel Prize for Climate Model Errors: https://scienceofclimatechange.org/wp-content/uploads/Clark-2024-Nobel-Prize-Errors.pdf About Roy Clark: https://co2coalition.org/teammember/roy-clark/ Reject NCA5: https://venturaphotonics.com/research-page-23.html ========= AI summaries of all of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries My Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL89cj_OtPeenLkWMmdwcT8Dt0DGMb8RGR X: https://x.com/TomANelson Substack: https://tomn.substack.com/ About Tom: https://tomn.substack.com/about
John R. Christy is a Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Science and Director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. He has served as Alabama's State Climatologist since 2000 and is best known for developing, along with Roy Spencer, a global temperature dataset from satellite microwave measurements. For this work, Christy and Spencer were awarded NASA's Medal for Exceptional Scientific Achievement in 1991 and a Special Award from the American Meteorological Society in 1996. 00:00 Introduction and Overview 00:20 Hurricane Helene and Flooding Analysis 04:02 Data-Driven Climate Insights 04:58 Fresno Temperature Trends 09:04 Urbanization and Temperature Records 10:57 U.S. Historical Climatology Network 14:13 Extreme Temperature Records 24:04 Rainfall and Atmospheric Rivers 27:53 Snowfall Measurement Techniques 28:48 Analyzing Snowfall Trends in the Western US 30:32 Mega Droughts vs. Modern Droughts 32:25 Global Atmospheric Temperatures and El Niño 36:07 Climate Models and Observations 39:56 Hydrocarbons and Climate Impact 42:03 Q&A Session 51:07 Concluding Remarks Slides for this podcast, along with AI summaries of all of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries John's Alabama State Climatologist site: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/aosc/ ======== AI summaries of all of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries My Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL89cj_OtPeenLkWMmdwcT8Dt0DGMb8RGR X: https://twitter.com/TomANelson Substack: https://tomn.substack.com/ About Tom: https://tomn.substack.com/about
Climate change authority Noah Diffenbaugh says that the effects of climate change are no longer theoretical but apparent in everyday, tangible ways. Still, he says, it is not too late to better understand the effects of climate change, to mitigate them through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and other measures, and to adapt how we live in the face of a warmer planet. Society is falling behind in its ability to deal with increasingly extreme climate events but solutions are not out of reach, Diffenbaugh tells host Russ Altman on this episode of Stanford Engineering's The Future of Everything podcast.Have a question for Russ? Send it our way in writing or via voice memo, and it might be featured on an upcoming episode. Please introduce yourself, let us know where you're listening from, and share your quest. You can send questions to thefutureofeverything@stanford.edu.Episode Reference Links:Stanford Profile: Noah DiffenbaughConnect With Us:Episode Transcripts >>> The Future of Everything WebsiteConnect with Russ >>> Threads or Twitter/XConnect with School of Engineering >>> Twitter/XChapters:(00:00:00) IntroductionRuss Altman introduces guest Noah Diffenbaugh, a professor of Earth System Science at Stanford University.(00:02:34) Global Impact of Climate ChangeThe major areas where climate change is having the greatest impact globally.(00:03:27) Climate Phenomena and HumansConnecting climate science with localized human impacts(00:06:16) Understanding Climate ForcingThe concept of "climate forcing" and its significance in Noah's research.(00:10:00) Geoengineering and Climate InterventionsThe potential and risks of intentional climate interventions.(00:21:18) Adaptation to Climate ChangeHow humans are adapting to climate change and why we might be falling behind.(00:25:19) Increase in Extreme EventsWhy extreme climate events are becoming exponentially more frequent and severe.(00:28:34) AI in Climate ResearchHow AI is revolutionizing climate research by enabling predictive capabilities.(00:32:26) Conclusion Connect With Us:Episode Transcripts >>> The Future of Everything WebsiteConnect with Russ >>> Threads or Twitter/XConnect with School of Engineering >>> Twitter/X
Paul's background: thirty years as a physicist in university physics departments followed by a move to industry until retirement. Principal Research Scientist, Nonlinear Dynamics/Chaos Theory, Plasma Fusion Center MIT, 1990-1997 Principal Research Scientist, LIGO project, Nonlinear Dynamics/Chaos Theory, Dept. of Physics MIT, 1980-1990 Postdoctoral Fellow, Neutrino Experiment, Dept. of Physics, CalTech, 1976 -1979 PhD student, experimental High Energy Physics, Dept. of Physics, University of Chicago, 1970-1976 Math student, MIT, 1965-1969 00:00 Introduction to CO2 and Climate Impact 00:13 Guest Introduction: Paul Linsay's Academic Journey 04:18 Transition to Climate Science 05:26 Critique of Climate Models 06:19 Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos Theory 12:31 Climate Model Assumptions and Predictions 13:38 Parameterization in Climate Models 28:22 Blackbody Earth and Atmospheric Heating 35:29 Surface Heating and Cooling Dynamics 36:13 Isothermal Atmosphere and Greenhouse Gases 37:23 Analyzing Greenhouse Gas Effects 38:57 Energy Calculations and Molecular Heat 42:25 Climate Models and Radiation 49:24 Convection and Historical Perspectives 55:15 Summary and Final Thoughts 56:58 Q&A and Closing Remarks Paul's paper and a podcast transcript are published here: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries ======== AI summaries of all of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries My Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL89cj_OtPeenLkWMmdwcT8Dt0DGMb8RGR X: https://twitter.com/TomANelson Substack: https://tomn.substack.com/ About Tom: https://tomn.substack.com/about
"They loved darkness rather than the light" - the CONTRAST between light and dark on this Halloween as the world increasingly embraces paganismWho needs Halloween when Scottish government says there's 24 genders and Brittany Spears marries herself?Plant absorption of CO2 underestimated by 31%. Is THIS why ALL their models and predictions have failed for nearly 60 years? Why there's ZERO TRUTH in "Net Zero" narrativePandemic Pig (with lipstick) Did they REALLY find "bird flu" in a pig? Just so you know…Testing embryos for IQ — the next step in eugenics is here as mainstream media covers the experience of a wealthy couple who demanded their surrogate have an abortion because of a social media pictureINTERVIEW Tony Arterburn on the election and precious metals post-election, both near term and long termFull description with topics by timecode to followIf you would like to support the show and our family please consider subscribing monthly here: SubscribeStar https://www.subscribestar.com/the-david-knight-showOr you can send a donation throughMail: David Knight POB 994 Kodak, TN 37764Zelle: @DavidKnightShow@protonmail.comCash App at: $davidknightshowBTC to: bc1qkuec29hkuye4xse9unh7nptvu3y9qmv24vanh7Money should have intrinsic value AND transactional privacy: Go to DavidKnight.gold for great deals on physical gold/silverFor 10% off Gerald Celente's prescient Trends Journal, go to TrendsJournal.com and enter the code KNIGHTBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-david-knight-show--2653468/support.
"They loved darkness rather than the light" - the CONTRAST between light and dark on this Halloween as the world increasingly embraces paganismWho needs Halloween when Scottish government says there's 24 genders and Brittany Spears marries herself?Plant absorption of CO2 underestimated by 31%. Is THIS why ALL their models and predictions have failed for nearly 60 years? Why there's ZERO TRUTH in "Net Zero" narrativePandemic Pig (with lipstick) Did they REALLY find "bird flu" in a pig? Just so you know…Testing embryos for IQ — the next step in eugenics is here as mainstream media covers the experience of a wealthy couple who demanded their surrogate have an abortion because of a social media pictureINTERVIEW Tony Arterburn on the election and precious metals post-election, both near term and long termFull description with topics by timecode to followIf you would like to support the show and our family please consider subscribing monthly here: SubscribeStar https://www.subscribestar.com/the-david-knight-showOr you can send a donation throughMail: David Knight POB 994 Kodak, TN 37764Zelle: @DavidKnightShow@protonmail.comCash App at: $davidknightshowBTC to: bc1qkuec29hkuye4xse9unh7nptvu3y9qmv24vanh7Money should have intrinsic value AND transactional privacy: Go to DavidKnight.gold for great deals on physical gold/silverFor 10% off Gerald Celente's prescient Trends Journal, go to TrendsJournal.com and enter the code KNIGHTBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-real-david-knight-show--5282736/support.
Today, we're joined by California State Senator Ben Allen to explore the critical climate and political stakes of the 2024 election. He discusses the vastly different climate policies between Trump and Harris and highlights the influence of fossil fuel interests on Republican politics, the urgency of voter turnout, and the challenges of misinformation in shaping public perception of environmental issues. Senator Allen also shares California's approach to climate policy and its impact on national standards for sustainability and clean energy. Make sure you go out and vote! Visit Vote.gov to learn how to register and to find your nearest polling place. Want to help us reach our goal of planting 30k trees AND get a free tree planted in your name? Visit www.aclimatechange.com/trees to learn how. You can also find us on Apple, Spotify, or whenever you get podcasts.
Matt and California Senator Ben Allen discuss the 2024 election's environmental stakes, from fossil fuel influence and climate policy contrasts to the critical role of voter turnout and the impact of misinformation.
On this exclusive, we discuss the fake models that are put forward in order to take away our energy independence. What do these models look like? Who is pushing them? What agendas do they have? Also, what are the possible side effects that can only be listed in what is deemed necessary? How can you avoid such risks to yourself and others? And, what does it mean for the future of robotics? How can you keep your self worth in such a world? We ask the questions. Contact and Support - https://www.subscribestar.com/dynamic-independence
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In today's show, I'm welcoming Roberta Boscolo, Climate and Energy Lead at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Roberta delves into the nuances of climate science, the importance of timely action, and her unique approach to communicating these urgent issues to the public through social media.Roberta discusses the vital role of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in providing accurate weather forecasts and climate models, emphasizing their importance for sectors such as agriculture, energy, and tourism. The conversation shifts to the effectiveness of climate communication, addressing how simplified and relatable narratives could potentially have a greater impact on public awareness and policy changes. Roberta also shares personal insights on how individuals can prepare for and adapt to the increasing occurrences of extreme weather events, stressing the critical urgency for immediate and collective action against climate change.We cover:The Urgency of Addressing Climate Change This DecadeThe Importance of Weather and Climate Models for Future PlanningCommunicating Climate Change: Challenges and Strategies for ScientistsPreparing for Extreme Climate Events and Human MigrationEmpowering Voices in Climate CommunicationGeoengineering Solutions and Their Potential Impact on Climate ChangeWant to go deeper?Invest in climate moonshots with Climate Insiders. Join 300+ members and become a shareholder of the best climate tech startups alongside us, from $1,000.Become a member now: https://www.climateinsiders.comJoin the Climate Insiders newsletter, the only newsletter you need to invest in climate tech. Every Saturday I share one actionable tip to invest successfully in climate tech. Join 3,500+ investors and get access to investing tips and strategies to invest today: https://climateinsiders.substack.com/--------------SHOW NOTES:(00:00) - Episode Trailer(00:51) - Introduction(01:29) - How Did Leveraging LinkedIn Turn One Person into a Powerhouse?(03:23) - What Makes This Decade a Make-or-Break Moment for Climate Action?(05:14) – Is Climate Change just the Natural Cycle?(07:07) - How Legitimate Are the WMO's Climate Forecasts?(09:07) - Is There a Way to Forecast When Major Climate Disasters Will Strike?(12:07) - Who Actually Uses WMO's Weather Forecasts?(14:26) - Are We Really Making Progress with Climate Reports and Predictions?(17:24) - Are Advocates of Social Media Seen as Outliers in Their Organizations?(19:00) – How to leverage results and stats in the story?(20:37) - Who Needs Convincing More: The Masses or the Decision-Makers?(22:30) - What Holds More Persuasive Power: Success Stories or Fear?(24:07) - Can the United Nations Lead the Disruption of Polluting Industries?(26:45) - How Should Parents Discuss Climate Change with Their Children?(29:44) - Are Leaders Discussing Potential Migration Due to Climate Change?(32:27) - Can Visualizing Climate Impacts Make it More Relatable to People?(35:22) - How Is Risk-Reward Culture Perceived Within the United Nations?(38:01) - Can Geoengineering Be Ethically Implemented to Combat Climate Change?(40:10) - Where and How Is Weather Modification Currently Utilized?(43:36) - Outro
God's Debris: The Complete Works, Amazon https://tinyurl.com/GodsDebrisCompleteWorks Find my "extra" content on Locals: https://ScottAdams.Locals.com Content: Politics, Dr. Robert Epstein, Kamala Harris Axios Poll, Joyful Harris, Tulsi Gabbard Terrorist Watchlist, President Biden, President Trump, Election Credibility, Jailing Political Critics, Rasmusson Polling, Military Discrimination, Generic Democrat Campaign Strategy, Whistleblower Retaliations, Border DNA Collection, Tim Walz Stolen Valor, JD Vance, Dana Bash, Harris Smart Campaign Strategies, Climate Change Tipping Point, Climate Models, George Webb, Crooks Overseas Bank Accounts, Election Rigging Whistleblower Reward, Scott Adams --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/scott-adams00/support
Andy May is a writer. He is a retired petrophysicist and has published four books. He worked on oil, gas and CO2 fields in the USA, Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand, China, UK North Sea, Canada, Mexico, Venezuela and Russia. He specialized in shale petrophysics, fractured reservoirs, wireline and core image interpretation and capillary pressure analysis, besides conventional log analysis. 00:00 Introduction to the Talk and Reports 01:41 Overview of IPCC Reports and Their Evolution 07:13 Climate Models and Their Limitations 09:08 Solar Influence and Oceanic Factors 13:26 Historical Climate Data and Trends 23:16 Sea Level Rise and Measurement Challenges 27:37 Storms, Weather Patterns, and IPCC Bias 33:35 Concluding Remarks and Q&A Slides for this podcast: https://tomn.substack.com/p/ipcc-ar6-wg1-bias “Satellite Bulk Tropospheric Temperatures as a Metric for Climate Sensitivity”; Christy/McNider, 2017: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13143-017-0070-z https://andymaypetrophysicist.com/ https://x.com/Andy_May_Writer ========= AI summaries of all of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries My Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL89cj_OtPeenLkWMmdwcT8Dt0DGMb8RGR X: https://twitter.com/TomANelson Substack: https://tomn.substack.com/ About Tom: https://tomn.substack.com/about
My book Reframe Your Brain, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/3bwr9fm8 Find my "extra" content on Locals: https://ScottAdams.Locals.com Content: Politics, Apple Intelligence, WaPo Covid Coverage, Prediction Dreaming, Climate Models, EU Food Labeling, FDA Food Labeling, Biden's Mental Decline, Shelitha Robertson, AOC Jail Fears, Theatre Kid Government, Governor Newsom, CA Shoplifting Vote, President Nixon Watergate, Dr. Jordan Peterson, Parenting, Scott Adams ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ If you would like to enjoy this same content plus bonus content from Scott Adams, including micro-lessons on lots of useful topics to build your talent stack, please see scottadams.locals.com for full access to that secret treasure. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/scott-adams00/support
In this episode of "The Blendr Report," Jonathan and Liam discuss: 0:00 Intro 1:04 Today's Conspiracy Theory is Tomorrow's Reality 5:34 15 Minute Cities and the War on Cars 13:18 Debunking the Climate Change Narrative 17:28 Climate Models are Deeply Flawed 21:29 Canadian MPs Want Ecocide Criminalized 25:07 Right-Wing Wave Expected in European Elections 30:26 Will the Right Become Authoritarian? 36:42 How to Challenge a Powerful Government 39:20 Canadian Politicians Seek to Lower Voting Age to 16 43:32 How Authoritarians Weaponize the Youth 46:51 Polievre to Repeal Trudeau's Gun Laws 49:01 The Dangers of Civil Disarmament 51:11 Debunking Racism Claims About Poverty 54:45 How Marxism Has Morphed into Social Justice 57:50 Social Justice is Making Race Relations Worse 1:00:11 Fauci Admits He Didn't “Follow the Science” 1:04:20 Global Health Organizations Are Lying - "Unsettled" by Steve Koonin: https://a.co/d/eA3h8Sh - Get raw and uncensored news covering events delivered to you daily at https://www.blendrnews.com/ - Follow BLENDR News: Twitter - @BlendrNews Instagram - @blendrnews TikTok - @blendrnews - Follow Jonathan: Instagram - @itsjonathanharvey TikTok - @itsjonathanharvey - Follow Liam: Instagram - @liam.out.loud Twitter - @liam_out_loud YouTube - @liam-out-loud - Subscribe to the BLENDR News Podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcast or Google Podcast | open.spotify.com/show/54wJHHTrDE3FgFqBUIFrIq?si=3fe4244965d84a31Transcript
Last year, while traveling around the Netherlands and speaking with the farmers getting kicked off their land, we also wanted to answer a fundamental underlying question. The Dutch farmers were getting off their land because the government ostensibly wanted to reduce nitrogen emissions, with the thinking being that if they didn't reduce emissions, the environment will be ruined. However, is that really the case? Will the environment really be in danger if these nitrogen standards aren't met? And also, what is the science behind those standards? The best weather models can only tell you the forecast for about a week out, but these government nitrogen models claim to be able to foresee the future decades in advance. And so, in order to figure this out, we went over to the home of Dr. Jaap C. Hanekamp. He's not only a scientist who's studied the nitrogen issue for well over eight years—and he was even commissioned by the nitrogen ministry to look into the matter—but aside from being a scientist, he's also a theologian, giving him a very unique perspective on the matter. And what he told us about these climate models was rather shocking, to say the least. Take a listen.
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Navigating Climate Uncertainty in Agriculture for 2024 In this second episode of the 'Better Frost Decisions Podcast' for 2024, hosted by Paige Cross of Mallee Sustainable Farming, the focus is on demystifying climate drivers and their implications for agricultural planning and decision-making. Joined by Peter Hayman, Principal Scientist at the South Australian Research and Development Institute, the discussion centres on the challenges of forecasting climate conditions, particularly in autumn, and the current neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation Index and what it implies for the upcoming season in southern Australia. They explore the importance of being cautious with autumn forecasts, acknowledging farmers' need for rain and the strategy of dry seeding amidst uncertain weather conditions. The conversation also touches on climate drivers like the Indian Ocean Dipole and the nuances of making agricultural decisions based on probabilistic forecasts. The episode emphasizes the value of farmer experience and peer learning in decision-making processes, particularly in relation to frost management and preparing for weather-related risks. It concludes with acknowledgments for the support from GRDC and a reminder of the ongoing project aimed at mitigating the impact of frost through informed decision-making. 00:00 Introduction to Climate Forecasting Challenges 00:27 Welcome to the Better Frost Decisions Podcast 00:47 Expert Insights on Seasonal Climate Outlook for 2024 01:20 Understanding Climate Drivers and Their Impact 03:50 Strategies for Farming in Uncertain Weather Conditions 06:19 The Role of Climate Models and Seasonal Forecasts 09:09 The Importance of Community and Peer Learning in Agriculture 15:43 Frost Management and Weather-Related Risks Discussion 19:43 Concluding Remarks and Acknowledgments To read the latest issue of the Better Frost Decisions Newsletter click hereSupport the show: https://msfp.org.au/about/membership/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Markham interviews Jennifer Saldana, director of ESG performance and reporting for ENMAX, and Professor David Sauchyn, director of the Prairie Adaptation and Research Collaborative and professor of geography and environmental studies at the University of Regina.
Dr. Judith Curry is a climatologist and author. She was a member of National Research Council's Climate Research Committee and published over a hundred scientific papers. Her latest book “Climate Uncertainty and Risk” discusses the risks and response to current and future climate issues. We discuss the book, climate hypocrisy, propaganda, worst case scenarios and more. 0:00:00 - Intro 0:00:14 - Dr. Judith Curry's Background 0:06:25 - Politics, Labels & Transparency 0:12:10 - Use of Fossil Fuels & Alternate Energy 0:18:45 - Issues in Africa 0:20:30 - Facing Political Reality of Energy Policies 0:23:05 - History of Climate Propaganda 0:24:35 - Climate Hypocrisy 0:28:10 - Climate Models & Population Growth 0:32:40 - Problems with Electric Cars 0:34:40 - United Nations & Biggest Polluters 0:36:55 - Agriculture, Best Diet For Climate & Policy 0:41:05 - Climate Predictions & Worst Case Scenarios 0:44:00 - Volcanic Cooling 0:48:00 - Traditional Environmentalism, Soil & Farming 0:52:28 - Solar Variations & Possible Cooling 0:54:05 - Sea Levels Rising & Misdirected Blame 0:57:20 - California, Rolling Blackouts & Nuclear Power 1:02:57 - Outro Dr. Judith Curry website:https://judithcurry.com/Chuck Shute link tree:https://linktr.ee/chuck_shuteSupport the showThanks for Listening & Shute for the Moon!
Remember when the airwaves were full of people questioning the idea of man-made climate change? You don't hear much from them any more - in large part becuase the evidence that our CO2 emissions are altering the climate has become so overwhelming.After a recap on how we know that carbon warms the climate, Tom and Stuart use this episode of The Studies Show to discuss climate predictions—er, I mean, projections—and how accurate they've been. They ask whether the media always gets it right when discussing climate (spoiler: no), and whether we should be optimistic or panicked about what's happening to the environment.The Studies Show is sponsored by Works in Progress magazine. Ever wondered what people mean when they talk about “progress studies”? Works in Progress is what they mean. It's a magazine bursting with fascinating articles on how science and technology have improved our lives - and how they could be even better in future. There's a whole new February 2024 issue out now - read it at this link.Show notes* 2023: the hottest year on record, with surprising and anomalous melting of ice in Antarctica* NASA on how the presence of CO2 in the atmosphere raises the Earth's temperature* Carbon Brief explains how scientists estimate climate sensitivity, and discusses the complexities of the latest climate models* The most recent IPCC report, from March 2023* The IEA's forecast of solar power, with the incredible and very optimistic graph mentioned in the episode:* Tom's unfortunately-titled Unherd article on the unlikely but much-discussed “RCP 8.5” scenario* Zeke Hausfather's study on matching up the projections of climate models with what actually happened years and decades later* Response from the sceptics (they still exist!)* Website offering responses to all the most common claims by climate change sceptics (e.g. “the Earth hasn't warmed since 1998”; “CO2 is plant food”)* Toby Ord on how, whereas climate change could be extremely bad, it's tricky to argue that it's a truly “existential” riskCredits and acknowledgementsThe Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions. We're grateful to Karsten Haustein for talking to us for this episode (any errors are our own). This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thestudiesshowpod.com/subscribe
David Stainforth is a Professorial Research Fellow at the London School of Economics. David has had a long career studying the climate problem and the challenges of making predictions of future climate change. His research spans the philosophy of climate science, climate economics, climate modelling, and decision-making under deep uncertainty.In this episode, we discuss David's new book ‘Predicting our climate future', exploring the challenges of making predictions about future climate change, and navigating this uncertainty to address climate problems.Links:David Stainforth's profileDavid's book, Predicting our climate futureSupport the showSubscribe for email updates
A recent discovery has utterly upended the accepted mathematical models of climate change, and no one wants to talk about it! Well too bad... we're gonna talk about it today! ----- Wired Article: https://www.wired.com/story/a-revelation-about-trees-is-messing-with-climate-calculations/ Tell me what you thought of the show! Text me at: (587)206-7006 Get you copy of "Consciousness Reality & Purpose" on Amazon.com TODAY: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0BS5FWLBK Subscribe to the Social Disorder Substack: https://thesocialdisorder.substack.com/ This episode is made possible by: BioPro+: https://bioproteintech.com/product/biopro-plus Higher Healths: https://www.higherhealths.com/ and DrewJitsu Online academy Sign up to get 2 week FREE to a library of over 550+ Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Technique videos taught by your host - Drew Weatherhead! Hit the link below to get started today! https://drewjitsuonline.com/orders/customer_info?o=43849
“NO FARMERS NO FOOD: WILL YOU EAT THE BUGS?” is an Epoch Original documentary exposing the hidden agenda behind global “Green Policies,” the untold stories of farmers forced out of business. “Facts Matter” host and producer of this documentary, Roman Balmakov joins us to share the inside story. We follow this with an expose on faulty climate models that the U.N. and others rely on to promote ‘climate emergency'. Eye opening!
All the major climate models fail to address the complexities of one key variable, says Nobel laureate John Clauser. He won the 2022 Nobel Prize in physics for his contributions to quantum mechanics.Mr. Clauser was one of two Nobel laureates to recently sign a declaration organized by the Clintel Foundation alongside 1,600 other scientists and professionals, stating “there is no climate emergency.”In this episode, Mr. Clauser breaks down why he considers the major climate models to be flawed, and why he believes America's climate policies are wasteful, misguided, and counterproductive.
On this episode, Nate is joined by climate and policy scientist Roger Pielke Jr. to discuss the progression of climate research and modeling. The climate activist community is based around projections of what a future might look like given the actions of society - an important tool in the push for urgent climate action. Yet, just like with any other model, the assumptions and parameters can greatly shape the outcomes. How has climate science been shaped by previous models and public perception? How did 2Cº come to be our common climate goal post? Are we anticipating the future within the most likely range of possibilities, or are we polarizing ourselves to the extremes of climate denial and climate doom? About Roger Pielke Jr. Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. is a professor at the University of Colorado where he teaches environmental science and policy. A lifetime scholar with many interests, Roger researches and writes on subjects from understanding the politicization of science to decision making under uncertainty to policy education for scientists in areas such as climate change, disaster mitigation, and world trade. His most recent book, The Rightful Place of Science: Disasters and Climate Change takes a deeper look at the IPCC and climate science and how it is being interpreted in the media. Roger also oversees a popular Substack - The Honest Broker - where he is experimenting with a new approach to research, writing and public engagement. Roger holds degrees in mathematics, public policy and political science, all from the University of Colorado Boulder. For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/81-roger-pielke To watch this video episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/T6Nx4SYZIvQ
If scientists discovered that we are not alone, what would they do with that information? Neil deGrasse Tyson and Chuck Nice learn about the search for life, habitability around M stars and more with astrophysics professor and author Aomawa Shields. NOTE: StarTalk+ Patrons can listen to this entire episode commercial-free here: https://startalkmedia.com/show/cosmic-queries-life-on-other-planets-with-aomawa-shields/Thanks to our Patrons Pepper Horton, annie brown, Lance Cardwell, Natalie waugh, firestorm960, and Daryl Spencerfor supporting us this week.Photo Credit: Original ESO/M. Kornmesser (+ background position from original change by Nagualdesign), CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
In this week's episode, host Daniel Raimi talks with Silvia Pianta, a junior scientist at the sister institution to Resources for the Future (RFF), the RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment. Pianta discusses the influence of social and political factors on climate and energy policymaking, how incorporating these factors into models can help inform the process of climate policymaking, and the efficacy of emissions-reduction strategies at the global and national scales. References and recommendations: “Emissions Lock-in, Capacity, and Public Opinion: How Insights from Political Science Can Inform Climate Modeling Efforts” by Silvia Pianta and Elina Brutschin; https://www.cogitatiopress.com/politicsandgovernance/article/view/5462 “On Time and Water” by Andri Snær Magnason; https://www.openletterbooks.org/products/on-time-and-water
We all know the saying “history repeats itself” but to what extent is that true when it comes to Earth's climate? In order to understand and even predict future climates, transitions from one historical climate state to another can be mathematically modeled by atmospheric scientists like Dr. Matthew Huber. However, there's something special about how anthropogenic climate change is impacting climate transitions, and it's Dr. Huber's job to capture this oddity with math! This episode was produced by Katrina Jackson and mixed by Collin Warren. Artwork by Jace Steiner. Find a companion to this episode from our friends over at Carry the Two.
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It's one of the most pressing, if not the most pressing, question facing scientists: what impact is climate change having on our planet's future? In this episode, we chat with world-renowned climate researcher Professor Lisa Alexander from UNSW who is helping answer that question with her research to understand and build better climate models. Our host is Rose Crocker.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Today, I am speaking with Professor Paul Bates, Chairman and Co-founder of Fathom, a UK-based startup specialising in water risk intelligence.We have already had one episode on floods recently with Floodbase, a company that is working on creating near real-time flood maps, but in this episode with Paul, we discuss how flood risk is measured and modelled, how this data is used to anticipate flood hazards and the role of satellite data in all of this.In this episode, Paul and I talk about Fathom and their products, the state of flood modelling today and the role of satellite data, why the quality of data is more important than anything else for this use case, some findings from Fathom's research and more.Fathom's WebsiteProf. Paul BatesFABDEM (Forest And Buildings removed Copernicus DEM)Research: UK Future Flood MapResearch: Inequality in FloodingResearch: Need for More Investment in Climate Models---01:06: Intro02:32: Fathom - Overview07:21: How is flood risk modeling done today? What is the status today?15:02: The value of satellite data in flood risk modelling and the importance of higher quality observations20:37: Fathom's product portfolio23:02: Importance of collaborating with research community and whether that is the new norm in the industry28:07: Some findings from Fathom's research: "UK Future Flood Map", "Inequality in Flooding" and "Need for More Investment in Climate Models"38:46: State of EO, whether we need more satellite data and Paul's association with the NASA SWOT mission43:41: What can we do to be optimistic about the state of climate?
Why is the deep ocean cold? And why does this matter for global warming?Doing the maths with pipes and plumbing, not computers, we explore how processes that keep the deep oceans at frigid Arctic temperatures also determine how fast the world is warming in response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations – and also explain why it would be so difficult to say when the warming would stop even if we were to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at today's levels forever.A lecture by Myles Allen recorded on 31 January 2023 at Barnard's Inn Hall, London.The transcript and downloadable versions of the lecture are available from the Gresham College website: https://www.gresham.ac.uk/watch-now/ocean-zeroGresham College has offered free public lectures for over 400 years, thanks to the generosity of our supporters. There are currently over 2,500 lectures free to access. We believe that everyone should have the opportunity to learn from some of the greatest minds. To support Gresham's mission, please consider making a donation: https://gresham.ac.uk/support/Website: https://gresham.ac.ukTwitter: https://twitter.com/greshamcollegeFacebook: https://facebook.com/greshamcollegeInstagram: https://instagram.com/greshamcollegeSupport the show
Everyone who's followed climate change for any length of time is familiar with the central role that complex mathematical models play in climate science and politics. Models give us predictions about how much the Earth's atmosphere will warm and how much it will cost to prevent or adapt to that warming.British researcher Erica Thompson has been thinking about the uses and misuse of mathematical modeling for years, and she has just come out with an absorbing and thought-provoking new book on the subject called Escape from Model Land: How Mathematical Models Can Lead Us Astray and What We Can Do About It.More than anything, it is an extended plea for epistemological humility — a proper appreciation of the intrinsic limitations of modeling, the deep uncertainties that can never be eliminated, and the ineradicable role of human judgment in interpreting model results and applying them to the real world.As Volts listeners know, my favorite kind of book takes a set of my vague intuitions and theories and lays them out in a cogent, well-researched argument. One does love having one's priors confirmed! I wrote critiques of climate modeling at Vox and even way back at Grist — it's been a persistent interest of mine — but Thompson's book lays out a full, rich account of what models can and can't help us do, and how we can put them to better use.I was thrilled to talk with her about some of her critiques of models and how they apply to climate modeling, among many other things. This is a long one! But a good one, I think. Settle in. Get full access to Volts at www.volts.wtf/subscribe
Andy May is a writer, blogger, and author living in The Woodlands, Texas; and enjoys golf and traveling in his spare time. He is the author of three books on climate change issues and one on Kansas history. Andy is the author or co-author of seven peer-reviewed papers on various geological, engineering and petrophysical topics. He retired from a 42-year career in petrophysics in 2016. You can find many of his posts on the popular climate change blog Wattsupwiththat.com, where he is an editor. https://andymaypetrophysicist.com/ https://twitter.com/Andy_May_Writer —— Tom Nelson's Twitter: https://twitter.com/tan123 Substack: https://tomn.substack.com/ About Tom: https://tomnelson.blogspot.com/2022/03/about-me-tom-nelson.html Notes for climate skeptics: https://tomnelson.blogspot.com/2019/06/useful-notes-for-climate-skeptics.html ClimateGate emails: https://tomnelson.blogspot.com/p/climategate_05.html
How do you prevent a heat stroke? Neil deGrasse Tyson and co-hosts Chuck Nice and Gary O'Reilly learn about stopping heat illness deaths and the challenges of increasing heat waves with kinesiologist, Bud Cooper, and climate scientist, Radley Horton.NOTE: StarTalk+ Patrons can watch or listen to this entire episode commercial-free here: https://startalkmedia.com/show/heat-stroke-with-bud-cooper-and-radley-horton/Thanks to our Patrons Zammo Taylor, Bill wessale, Korey B Helms, Kevin Browning, and Justin for supporting us this week.Photo Credit: James St. John, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Join FOX Weather's Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross for a conversation with Dr. Kerry Emanuel from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology as they discuss modern climate models, their successes, and their failures. What's going on with this hurricane season? What the current thinking is about hurricanes in a future warmer world, how El Niño and La Niña come into play, whether the hurricane cycles we hear so much about are real, and how close we are to the limits of being able to forecast a hurricane, and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What can the climate on Venus tell us about Earth? On this episode, Neil deGrasse Tyson and comic co-host Chuck Nice answer questions about climate modeling, the state of climate change, and future predictions with climate scientist, Kate Marvel. NOTE: StarTalk+ Patrons can watch or listen to this entire episode commercial-free here: https://startalkmedia.com/show/cosmic-queries-predicting-earths-climate-future-with-kate-marvel-phd/Photo Credit: Buiobuione, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commo
The United Nations climate models being used to create policy in the United States and around the world are not reliable at all and “fail basic testing” regarding what is going on in the atmosphere, warned Science & Environmental Policy Project President Ken Haapala in this interview with The New American magazine’s Alex Newman. Speaking ... The post Wind, Solar, & Climate Models a Boondoggle, Says Science & Environmental Policy Project Chief appeared first on The New American.
MIP #270 - Shawn Hackett's Natural Climate Model UpdateHeading into the Fall, several events are lining up that could create the perfect storm. Click To Listen:https://www.spreaker.com/user/9810017/mip-270-shawn-hackett-climate-modle-updaClick to Watch:https://youtu.be/9-f7P_DP-fcHelp Alex:https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-alex-transport-aid-from-poland-to-ukraine?qid=ab6c409bf701b454d87a5c1ddcc120eaPresented By @AxonTire, @TractorZoom, @AgDirect, @FarmCredit, @ValleyTransInc, @SullivanAuctioneersMusic By: @TalbottBrothers Co-host: @Aaronfintel@casey9673#AgEquipmentBusinessTalk#LetsGoMoveSomeIronContact me @: MovingIronLLC.comMovingIronPodcast@MovingIronPodcast.com#AgEquipmentBusinessTalk #LetsGoMoveSomeIron #agmarkets #combine #combinetires #corn #idlechatterpodcast #AgTires #Harvest22 #Tillage #plant22 #till22 #tractor #BushelandCents #tractorzoom #worldeconomy #IronComps #PrecisionDonor #BornThatWay #Soybeans #TaxMoves #TheHerdBook #AuctionMarket #EquipmentAuction #FarmEquipmentAuction
In this week's episode, host Daniel Raimi talks with Michael Craig, an assistant professor at the University of Michigan who studies energy systems. Craig and Raimi discuss a recent study coauthored by Craig that explores how energy models can better incorporate variations in weather and climate and why an exchange of data between energy and climate modelers is crucial to helping keep the lights on. Craig outlines a research agenda that describes near-term and long-term steps to bridge the divide between energy and climate models; he also shares advice for interdisciplinary collaboration. References and recommendations: “Overcoming the disconnect between energy system and climate modeling” by Michael T. Craig, Jan Wohland, Lauren P. Steep, Alexander Kies, Bryn Pickering, Hannah C. Bloomfield, Jethro Browell, Matteo De Felice, Chris J. Dent, Adrien Deroubaix, Felix Frischmuth, Paula L. M. Gonzalez, Aleksander Grochowicz, Katharina Gruber, Philipp Härtel, Martin Kittel, Leander Kotzur, Inga Labuhn, Julie K. Lundquist, Noah Pflugradt, Karin van der Wiel, Marianne Zeyringer, and David J. Brayshaw; https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2542435122002379 NextGenEC at the University of Reading; https://research.reading.ac.uk/met-energy/ “Downscaling Techniques for High-Resolution Climate Projections: From Global Change to Local Impacts” by Rao Kotamarthi, Katharine Hayhoe, Linda O. Mearns, Donald Wuebbles, Jennifer Jacobs, and Jennifer Jurado; https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/downscaling-techniques-for-highresolution-climate-projections/C261452F6DECC0372077B7533414CD95 “The Making of the Atomic Bomb” by Richard Rhodes; https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Making-of-the-Atomic-Bomb/Richard-Rhodes/9781451677614
One of my long-time gripes about the climate-economic models that outfits like the IPCC produce is that they ignore politics. More broadly, they ignore social change and the way it can both drive and be driven by technology and climate impacts. This isn’t difficult to explain — unlike technology costs, biophysical feedbacks, and other easily quantifiable variables, the dynamics of social change seem fuzzy and qualitative, too soft and poorly understood to include in a quantitative model. Consequently, those dynamics have been treated as “exogenous” to models. Modelers simply determine those values, feed in a set level of policy change, and the models react. Parameters internal to the model can not affect policy and be affected by it in turn; models do not capture socio-physical and socio-economic feedback loops.But we know those feedback loops exist. We know that falling costs of technology can shift public sentiment which can lead to policy which can further reduce the costs of technology. All kinds of loops like that exist, among and between climate, technology, and human social variables. Leaving them out entirely can produce misleading results. At long last, a new research paper has tackled this problem head-on. Fran Moore, an assistant professor at UC Davis working at the intersection of climate science and economics, took a stab at it in a recent Nature paper, “Determinants of emissions pathways in the coupled climate–social system.” Moore, along with several co-authors, attempted to construct a climate model that includes social feedback loops, to help determine what kinds of social conditions produce policy change and how policy change helps change social conditions.I am fascinated by this effort and by the larger questions of how to integrate social-science dynamics into climate analysis, so I was eager to talk to Moore about how she constructed her model, what kinds of data she drew on, and how she views the dangers and opportunities of quantifying social variables. Get full access to Volts at www.volts.wtf/subscribe
In this week's episode, host Daniel Raimi talks with Fran Moore, an assistant professor at the University of California, Davis. Moore discusses a paper she recently coauthored that expands the way we model the future of the climate system. The model examines how human behavior, political decisionmaking, and technological progress can interact with one another to speed or stall efforts to limit climate change. Moore and Raimi discuss the range and likelihood of outcomes the model has produced, and how these possible pathways are impacted by the complex systems that have been taken into account. References and recommendations: “Determinants of emissions pathways in the coupled climate-social system” by Frances C. Moore, Katherine Lacasse, Katharine J. Mach, Yoon Ah Shin, Louis J. Gross, and Brian Beckage; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04423-8 “Why Trust Science?” by Naomi Oreskes; https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691179001/why-trust-science “The Knowledge Machine: How Irrationality Created Modern Science” by Michael Strevens; https://wwnorton.com/books/9781631491375
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