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US equity futures point to a softer open. Asian markets traded broadly higher, while European equities traded mostly higher. The spending bill signed by President Trump ends the record 43-day government shutdown, though October CPI and payrolls are still unlikely to be released, prolonging uncertainty for Fed policy. While resumption of Fed easing has been a component of the bullish narrative, Fed policymakers still divided on policy path. Market pricing in 60% chance of Dec rate cut, down from 67% day before. Furthermore, OPEC's latest forecast for a more balanced oil market next year weighed on crude, extending a broader reset across commodities.Companies Mentioned: Sealed Air, Alibaba, Amazon, PDD Holdings, SHEIN
The U.S. government has reopened after the longest shutdown in American history. Futures still slid ahead of the opening bell. Kevin Hincks says some of the weakness may come from the lack of economic data markets will receive, signaled by the White House stating no October CPI is coming. It also complicates the Fed's interest rate picture due to the FOMC's data dependence.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
US President Trump signed the government funding bill and announced an end to the government shutdown after the House voted to approve the bill, while Trump said the government will resume normal operations and reiterated a call for money to be paid to people directly to buy healthcare.White House Press Secretary Leavitt said the October CPI and jobs data is likely to never be released, while it was separately reported that there was no official word from BLS on plans for October data.US officials flagged they will reduce tariffs on popular groceries, as pressure mounts to address the cost-of-living crisis, according to FT.APAC stocks followed suit to the mixed performance in the US, with little fresh catalysts as the government shutdown ended.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.1% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP (Sep/Q3), EZ Industrial Production (Sep), US Cleveland Fed (Oct), New Zealand Manufacturing PMI (Nov), IEA OMR, BoE Minutes of the Market Participants Group Meeting, Speakers including BoE's Greene, Fed's Daly, Kashkari, Musalem & Hammack, ECB's Elderson, SNB's Tschudin & Moser, Supply from Italy & US, Earnings from Zealand Pharma, B&M European, Burberry, Siemens, Sabadell, Applied Materials, Disney, JD com & Bilibili.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news rising consumer demand in the world's largest economy is still driving the world's economy, a trend that started nearly a century ago - and still, it shows no sign of ending anytime soon.First we should note that the American Thanksgiving holiday starts tomorrow, so there is a big data dump today. Most Americans will have a four day 'holiday' (although the bond market will trade on their Friday). That frees them up for the start of the end-of-year retail rush. Given the good shape their economy is in, it is likely to be a positive retail season.US jobless claims rose last week but by less than seasonal factors would have accounted for, so the headline change was regarded positively. The level of continuing claims rose too, but not as sharply as they did in the same week a year ago. So no early signs of labour market stress here.And there was a good rise in mortgage applications last week from the week before (+6.3%), and slightly better that can be accounted for by seasonal factors (+1.7%). Perhaps more impressive is that these rises came despite benchmark mortgage interest rates rising to their highest level since July.And the October pending home sales rose +2.0% to be +5.4% higher than a year ago. This is a further sign the US housing market may have touched bottom.US durable goods orders rose in October, up +5.3% from the same month in 2023, but by less than expected. And that was because the 2023 level was slightly weaker than normal. Capital goods orders rose +5.4% although non-defence capital goods orders were only up +2.9%.The Chicago area PMI came in weak in November, continuing its year-long retreat in a result that would have disappointed everyone.There were no surprises in the second estimate of the American Q3-2024 GDP growth rate, coming in unchanged from the first estimate at +2.8%, and a consistent expansion since Q3-2022. This is an expansion fuelled by consumer spending.But the same data showed core PCE rose to +2.8%, up a tick from +2.7% in Q2. Although this was as expected, this inflation measure is the one favoured by the US Fed, so it is a shift that they will take into account.Today's UST bond auction of seven year paper was very well supported, and for the first time in a long while, the median yield fell from the prior equivalent event. Today it came in at 4.14%, whereas a month ago it was at 4.17%.China industrial profits were expected to fall -3.0% in the nine months to September and in the end they came in down -4.3% on that same basis. Not a huge slip, you may think. But ytd comparisons hide a lot and for September alone, they were -23% lower than in the same month a year ago. There is a definite profit squeeze going on in China.In India, their parliament was suspended so that debate on the links between the ruling BJP political party, and the American-indicted Adani Group could not proceed.In France, their government is close to collapse.In the EU, the European Parliament is moving to get the bloc to “revoke Hong Kong's special customs treatment” and review the status of its economic and trade office in Brussels over a long-running national security trial that last week saw 45 opposition figures jailed for between four and 10 years.Markets thought the October CPI indicator in Australia would report a rise from the September level of 2.1%. But in the end there was no change. (Food, however, was up +3.3%, and also unchanged from September.) This overall result eased financial market fears that the RBA would have to weight harder against inflation. However, the 'hold' puts rate cuts there back in the frame earlier than otherwise assumed.Australian construction work completed in Q3-2024 also came with a positive surprise, up +3.2% from, the same quarter a year ago. Dragging on this result was virtually no change in residential construction. But unlike in the June quarter, every sector made some positive contribution to the overall gain. The actual result was way better than the limp +0.3% expectation.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.24% and falling -8 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$2642/oz and up +US$13 from this time yesterday.Oil prices are down -US$1 at just over US$68.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just on US$72.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 59.1 USc and up a full +80 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are +70 bps higher at 90.9AUc. Against the euro we up +20 bps at 55.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 68.6, and up +50 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$96,058 and up +1.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at +/- 3.1%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss their key takeaways from the October CPI reports and the outlook for the coming year. Global core inflation remained sticky at 3.1% both on a three-month annualized and year-ago basis, while headline inflation ticked higher to 2.9%oya. While the sectoral gap between services and goods is finally narrowing there is considerable country variation with respect to the strength of services inflation. The coming trade war is likely to temper global growth while adding to inflation. The timing and magnitude of the coming US policy shifts remain highly uncertain and should add to the variation in inflation outcomes. This podcast was recorded on 26 November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4852504-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4845587-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4773721-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news that financial markets are being rattled somewhat by the isolationist rhetoric from the incoming US President on tariffs, especially as they will apply to Canada, Mexico and China. However, despite the incendiary nature of the talk, the market reactions have been relatively mild with the expectation the adults in the room will calm things in January.But these reactions have hit commodity currencies.One reason restraining Trump might work is that his mind is still in the 2020 past. In fact the Biden Administration has been particularly successful in restraining drug importation, fentanyl in particular, that overdose deaths are falling rather fast now. And restraining the drugs trade from China and Mexico is a motivating reason for those tariff threats. (It was during the last Trump Administration that those deaths spiked.)Anyway, away from the ramblings of a bitter old man, first up today, we can report higher dairy prices for two key commodities at the overnight GDT Pulse auction event. SMP rose +0.5% in USD terms and was up +1.8% in NZD terms. WMP rose another +2.2% in USD terms to be up +3.5% in NZD terms. This will give upside to all the analyst farmgate payout forecasts, and it seems likely they will coalesce around the $10/kgMS mark now. That, of course, would be a record high.In the US, their retail impulse is staying 'healthy' as measured by the Redbook survey, and last week it rose +4.9% above the same week a year ago, holding the expansion we have observed for the past eight months.This was supported by a rise in consumer sentiment, as measured by the Conference Board survey. It is now at the top of the range that has prevailed over the past two years. November's increase was mainly driven by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly regarding their labour market.Further, there was an improvement in the Texas services sector in November, taking into an expansion. And a return to expansion was also reported for the service sector in the mid-Atlantic states.But none of this has spilled over into confidence in home buying, yet anyway. New home sales in October dropped more than 17% from the previous month to at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 610,000. And that takes it -9% lower than the same month a year ago.Singapore's factory production rose by only +1.2% in October from a year ago, slowing sharply from a downwardly revised +9% rise in the previous month and disappointing analysts. Activity slowed significantly for biomedical manufacturing.Here's something we rarely report on, but is an indication of the tight ASEAN economies. Car sales in Thailand sank -36% in October from a year ago to be the seventeenth consecutive month of decline, driven primarily by high household debt and significant tightening of loans.Later today in Australia, we will be following the October CPI indicator and it is expected to reveal a small rise from the prior month.Join us at 2pm for the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Statement and the OCR review. A -50 bps rate cut is widely expected. But it will be a twelve week gap until the February 19, 2025 MPS, so this review has to carry them through a period which may have considerable international uncertainty attached to it.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.32% and rising +3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$2629/oz and down -US$2 from this time yesterday.Oil prices are little-changed at just under US$69.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just under US$73.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.3 USc and down a minor -10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are +20 bps higher at 90.2AUc. Against the euro we down -20 bps at 55.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.1, down another -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,496 and down another -1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
European equities enjoyed a strong day yesterday, while Wall Street had a moderately positive day, marked by a rotation out of tech stocks and into more cyclical sectors such as financials, industrials and retail. Elsewhere, Gary Gensler announced his resignation as Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission as of 20 January 2025. Treasury yields rose across the curve as investors digested mixed economic data and comments from Federal Reserve policymakers. In Asia, Japanese stocks led the way following the release of Japan's October CPI and preliminary PMI figures. Commodities also posted gains, with oil and gold prices rising amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is marching towards the USD 100,000 mark. Joining us today to break down the latest developments in the world of currencies is David Meier, Senior Economist.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:27 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)06:57 Currencies update - USD, EUR, CHF: David Meier (Senior Economist)12:44 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
US Rates Strategist Phoebe White discusses her takeaways from the October CPI report, as well as the path ahead for US rates and inflation markets. October CPI showed broad-based strength, outside of some idiosyncratic weakness in core goods prices, and points to some stickiness in core services inflation, even before considering upside risks stemming from policy uncertainty. With Treasury valuations cheap and the Fed maintaining an easing bias, there is likely limited room for yields to rise further. TIPS breakevens are likely to outperform their historical beta to nominal yields in a rally. Speaker: Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy This podcast was recorded on 15 November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4845562-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
This morning, we received the October CPI report. Overall, the report was subtle enough for traders to think we will still receive a ¼% interest rate cut in December. But is the report too hot for the Fed's liking? Why did bond yields move up again? We'll share with your our views, this afternoon on the Jon Sanchez Show at 3pm.
What does the latest CPI data suggest about the US Fed's fight against inflation? What are economists saying about the trajectory of the future monetary policy path? What are some stocks that have surged more than 200% this year? And how did Tencent perform in its latest quarter earnings? Find out with Dan Koh and Ryan Huang as they breakdown these latest financial news and walk you through an action pack tour of markets. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Discover the latest before the October CPI report is out today. Are you investing well for financial freedom...or not? Financial freedom is a combination of money, compounding and time (my McT Formula). How well you invest, makes a huge difference to your financial future and lifestyle. If you only knew where to invest for the long-term, what a difference it would make, because the difference between investing $100k and earning 5 percent or 10 percent on your money over 30 years, is the difference between it growing to $432,194 or $1,744,940, an increase of over $1.3 million dollars. Your compounding rate, and how well you invest, matters! INTERESTED IN THE BE WEALTHY & SMART VIP EXPERIENCE? -Asset allocation model with ticker symbols and % to invest -Monthly VIP investing webinars with Linda -Private VIP Facebook group with daily insights -Weekly VIP stock market commentary email -Lifetime access with no additional cost -US and foreign investors, no minimum $ amount to invest For an early Black Friday deal, enjoy a 50% savings on my private investing group, the Be Wealthy & Smart VIP Experience. Pay once and enjoy lifetime access without any additional cost. Enter "SAVE50" to save 50% here: http://tinyurl.com/InvestingVIP Or have a complimentary conversation to answer your questions. Request a free appointment to talk with Linda here: https://tinyurl.com/TalkWithLinda (yes, you talk to Linda!). WANT TO INVEST IN STOCKS PRE-IPO? #Ad Invest in private companies (pre-IPO). Linqto has streamlined their onboarding process and no longer requires documentation of assets. Minimum investment only $5k. Sign up to receive a $500 credit toward your investment, here: https://tinyurl.com/LindaLinqto WANT HELP AVOIDING IRS AUDITS? #Ad Stop worrying about IRS audits and get advance warning at Crypto Tax Audit, here. PLEASE REVIEW THE PODCAST ON ITUNES If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe and leave a review. I love hearing from you! I so appreciate it! SUBSCRIBE TO BE WEALTHY & SMART Click Here to Subscribe Via iTunes Click Here to Subscribe Via Stitcher on an Android Device Click Here to Subscribe Via RSS Feed PLEASE LEAVE A BOOK REVIEW FOR THE CRYPTO INVESTING BOOK Get my book, "3 Steps to Quantum Wealth: The Wealth Heiress' Guide to Financial Freedom by Investing in Cryptocurrencies". After you purchase the book, go here for your Crypto Book bonus: https://lindapjones.com/bookbonus PLEASE LEAVE A BOOK REVIEW FOR WEALTH BOOK Leave a book review on Amazon here. Get my book, “You're Already a Wealth Heiress, Now Think and Act Like One: 6 Practical Steps to Make It a Reality Now!” Men love it too! After all, you are Wealth Heirs. :) Available for purchase on Amazon. International buyers (if you live outside of the US) get my book here. WANT MORE FROM LINDA? Check out her programs. Join her on Instagram. WEALTH LIBRARY OF PODCASTS Listen to the full wealth library of podcasts from the beginning. Use the search bar in the upper right corner of the page to search topics. SPECIAL DEALS #Ad Protect yourself online with a Virtual Private Network (VPN). Get 3 MONTHS FREE when you sign up for a NORD VPN plan here. #Ad To safely and securely store crypto, I recommend using a Tangem wallet. Get a 10% discount when you purchase here. #Ad If you are looking to simplify your crypto tax reporting, use Koinly. It is highly recommended and so easy for tax reporting. You can save $20, click here. Be Wealthy & Smart,™ is a personal finance show with self-made millionaire Linda P. Jones, America's Wealth Mentor.™ Learn simple steps that make a big difference to your financial freedom. (Some links are affiliate links. There is no additional cost to you.)
One day after the post-election rally took a detour, Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber discussed market reaction to inflation data -- a slight increase in October CPI year-over-year. Lots of news involving Formula 1 owner Liberty Media: Greg Maffei is stepping down as CEO at the end of this year and will be succeeded by chairman John Malone on an interim basis. Liberty is spinning off most of its assets and Charter Communication agreed to acquire Liberty Broadband in an all-stock deal. Also in focus: The Trump transition and Elon Musk's role in a new "Department of Government Efficiency," Nvidia and Softbank forge an AI partnership, Volkswagen's $5.8 billion investment in EV maker Rivian. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer
S&P Futures are displaying some weakness this morning as markets awaits this morning inflation report. The October CPI reading is due out before the bell. Yields on the 10-year treasury bonds spike yesterday to their highest level since July in anticipation of a hot inflation reading. The 10 yr yield is at 4.416% this morning. Spirt Airlines is expected to file for bankruptcy as Frontier drops its merger bid. Super Micro says that they are unable to file their 10-Q on time. In earnings news SPOT, FLUT, OXY & CAVA traded higher on their releases. After the bell today markets will be watching for earnings results from Cisco. Share of AMGN are higher as company states that there is no link between bone mineral density changes and its weight loss drug "MariTide" In Europe, stocks have moved from higher to flat on the day with inflation data in focus.
Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the main takeaways from the October CPI reports and what to expect from here. A fall in consumer energy prices brought some relief to DM consumers last month. However, after a sharp downshift in core inflation last quarter––from 4.7%ar in 2Q23 to 3.3%ar in 3Q23—global core inflation remained firm in October and the 3-month annualized rate has stabilized above 3%. This hints at stickiness in underlying inflation as a result of still firm services inflation which stands in stark contrast to the sharp slide in core goods inflation. This podcast was recorded on 28 November 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4571422-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Heading into 2024, we may be witnessing a change in a number of trends. The October CPI numbers suggest inflation is moderating faster than expected. If that proves true, this may mean the Federal Reserve's aggressive campaign of hiking interest rates is over. And if that is true, the 3-year beating the bond market has suffered may be coming to an end. As for stocks, they've been powered higher all year by the Magnificent 7 -- Apple, Google/Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta and Tesla.. But even there, we may be witnessing a regime change. To clarify whether these are indeed real & significant trend shifts, Thoughtful Money host Adam Taggart sits down in today's video to speak with Fred Hickey, editor of the highly respected newsletter The High Tech Strategist, which Fred has been publishing since 1987. If you're interested in signing up for Fred's newsletter, send an email to thehightechstrategist@yahoo.com Or follow him on Twitter at @htsfhickey To learn what's in store for this new Thoughtful Money channel, SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ #magnificent7 #techstocks #inflation
US equities rallied this week as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both capped off a third-straight week of gains, while the small-cap Russell 2000 posted its second-best weekly performance of the year. Tuesday's October CPI declined on an annualized basis for the first time in four months. Beyond the cooler October CPI and PPI prints, data this week included more evidence of a cooling labor market as initial jobless claims missed and was the highest since 18-Aug, while continuing claims also missed and hit the highest level since Nov-21.
Join Randy and Chris every month as they delve into the dynamic world of mortgages. They'll cover everything from the latest trends and developments in the industry, to insights on new financial products. Plus, get valuable underwriting tips, engage with special guest interviews featuring industry leaders, and a whole lot more.Here's what they got lined up in this month's episode:"- October CPI- Interest Rate Update- 5% Down Connventional Multi Family- Rental History on FHA Loans- Eli Pascon of ValueQuest- Postive Mortgage NewsRandy ForcierLoan OfficerNMLS 322749Norcom Mortgage9 Beach St, 2nd FloorSaco, ME 04072207-590-0337randy.forcier@norcom-usa.comApply Here: randyforcier.norcommortgage.comChris BedardLoan OfficerNMLS 323290Norcom Mortgage9 Beach St, 2nd FloorSaco, ME 04072207-229-4731chris.bedard@norcom-usa.comApply Here: chrisbedard.norcommortgage.comContact us with any loan questions, comments or ideas for future episodes. Music from #Uppbeat (free for Creators!): https://uppbeat.io/t/paulo-kalazzi/heros-timeLicense code: F5VL7ZZ7KQITOFBH --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/therandyforcierpodcast/support
(AURN News) - The consumer price index (CPI) for October has shown promising signs when it comes to the ongoing battle against inflation. The latest data released by the Labor Department indicated that inflation was flat, prompting a surge in stocks on Tuesday. According to the report, the overall increase in food prices for the month of October was 0.3 percent, with a particular focus on an increase in meat prices. However, what may come as a relief to many Americans is the decrease in energy prices. The data, sourced from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, reveals a 5.3 percent drop in gas prices over the past year. The October CPI report suggests that inflation has maintained a flat trajectory, offering a glimmer of hope for those closely monitoring economic indicators as rumors and predictions of a possible recession next year still linger. Despite this, there is still concern among Americans struggling financially, especially with grocery prices still elevated. As the presidential race looms within the next year, there is heightened scrutiny not only on inflation itself but also on the adverse effects that persistently high prices have on the wallets of everyday Americans. While the latest CPI figures provide a momentary reprieve, concerns linger about the enduring impact of inflation on daily expenses. With grocery costs remaining a focal point for consumers, the upcoming presidential race adds an extra layer of complexity to discussions surrounding economic stability ahead of the 2024 election. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Investors are bracing for a fresh read on inflation from the October CPI. First Watch CEO Chris Tomasso discusses how higher prices are impacting his business. Plus, Home Depot reports earnings today amid concerns about slowing consumer spending. Northstar Asset Management's Nimrit Kang gives her expectations. And, what's in store for the trading day ahead? Cetera's Gene Goldman and Gilman Hill Asset Management's Jenny Harrington weigh in.
US equities finished notably higher in Tuesday trading, ending a bit off best levels, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq finishing up 1.43%, 1.91%, and 2.37%, respectively. Additionally, the Russell had its best session in more than a year, ending up 5.44%. Big Tech was stronger across the board, and REITs, utilities, autos, retail, homebuilders, airlines, banks, and asset managers were among the other outperformers. There were not a lot of decliners, but energy, managed care, pharma, healthcare distributors, P&C insurers, and defense were among the relative laggards. Treasuries were notably firmer across the curve with 10Y yield below 4.5% and 30Y approaching 4.6%. The dollar was down sharply on the major crosses, particularly vs the euro and sterling. Gold ended up 0.8% while Bitcoin futures down finished 4.1%, adding to a 1.5% pullback in the prior session. Finally, WTI crude settled unchanged after three-straight gains. The big macro news for today was that the October CPI report came in cooler than expected across the board, with monthly and annualized headline and core CPI prints below consensus. The soft October CPI report drove the big rally in stocks and rates, with momentum seemingly exacerbated by widely discussed positioning dynamics. Fed sentiment also expected to be impacted by retail sales tomorrow.
Mike Armstrong and Marc Fandetti react to the cooler than expected October CPI report. Markets see only good news from the CPI report. What is a higher likelihood, recession or increased inflation in 2024? Home Depot warns of weakness ahead in big-ticket pullback. 55.4 million Americans are expected to travel for Thanksgiving. Airline prices drop sharply in time for holiday season. Amtrak joins push to relocate USPS and expand South Station.
Overview: Tune into this week's CPI episode of Launch Financial as we discuss a cooler than expetced October CPI report, which marked the core CPI two-year low, as the consumer continues to cut back spending and prices cool off. We will be back with more inflation data and economic clues about the consumer following tomorrow's PPI report. If you have any questions, email info@shermanwealth.com. Show Notes:
MONEY FM 89.3 - Prime Time with Howie Lim, Bernard Lim & Finance Presenter JP Ong
Singapore stocks opened stronger today, as the earnings season approaches an end. In early trade, the Straits Times Index (STI) rose 0.3 per cent to 3,114.97 points after 93.9 million securities changed hands in the broader market. In terms of companies to watch for today, we have Genting Singapore, after the company on Friday posted a net profit of S$216.3 million for the third quarter ended September. That's up 59 per cent from S$135.8 million a year earlier. Elsewhere from more on global EV sales, to expectations for the October's consumer price index due tonight, more international headlines are in focus. On Market View, The Evening Runway's finance presenter Chua Tian Tian unpacked the developments with Khoon Goh, Head of Asia Research at ANZ.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
It's a make-or-break week for Congress, with lawmakers just days away from a government shutdown. Stifel's Brian Gardner explains. Plus, markets are coming off two straight weeks of gains. Wall Street Journal's Gunjan Banerji discusses. And, investors are preparing for fresh economic data, including October CPI and PPI. Veritas Financial Group's Greg Branch breaks down the agenda.
Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news geopolitical risks remain high but they don't seem to be escalating from here, and markets are taking that as a positive signal. But benchmark interest rates are back rising again.First up today, global banking giant HSBC has announced a doubling of its profits in Q3-2023. They made NZ$13 bln in the three months to September, benefiting from higher global interest rates.Second, General Motors has apparently settled its dispute with its union who have been on strike, the last of the big three American carmakers to resolve the dispute. It appears, like the other settlements, the UAW has prevailed in all its substantive claims.In Japan, all eyes are on their central bank who later today are expected to make a significant shift in policy and let some of their interest rate targets rise.The World Bank has been assessing the prospects for commodity prices. It sees oil prices falling away - assuming we avoid a sudden supply-constrained geopolitical shock. Their base case has oil falling from here, to the low US$80/bbl range. But in their worst-case scenario they see US$150/bbl oil. They also see food prices falling as rising supply more than makes up for rising demand. An exception is for rice. But they are not seeing price being a threat to future global food security out to 2025. In the current circumstances, they have a very sanguine outlook - with the usual caveats about unexpected shocks.Meanwhile, EU sentiment continues to weaken. It recorded a slight decrease from the previous month and came in lower than expected even if the change was minor. This is the weakest it has been since November 2020. The combination of persistent inflationary pressure and the ECB's extended policy tightening has exerted a dampening effect everywhere. In a week or so we get the next ECB inflation expectations survey.And there might be some relief in store. In Germany, and with the help of easing food inflation, their October CPI inflation rate fell to 3.8%, sharply lower than the September 4.5% rate. The October rate is their lowest inflation level since August 2021.Meanwhile, the German economy was expected to shrink by -0.3% in Q3-2023 but the actual result was a -0.1% retreat - and prior quarter falls were revised into slight rises. This was a very much 'better' result than expected, despite its negativeness, and markets were 'impressed'.In Australia, September retail sales rose more than expected to be +2.0% higher than a year ago, pumped by the +0.9% rise in September from August. The year-on-year result is far less than inflation but the more recent rise is sharpish and may encourage the RBA to hike, thinking that along with earlier +5.6% monthly inflation indicator data, the risks of waiting for are not worth taking.The UST 10yr yield is up +4 bps from this time yesterday, now at 4.89%. The price of gold will start today at US$1998/oz and down -US$6/oz from this time yesterday.Oil prices have fallen -US$3 today to be now at just over US$82/bbl in the US. The international Brent price has fallen a bit more now just under US$86.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.3 USc and marginally firmer from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are softish at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are still just on 55 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today again unchanged at just under at 68.2.The bitcoin price starts today at US$34,473 and up just +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
What question am I asked the most? It's usually along the lines of: “What do you think the stock market is going to do? When will we be out of this horrible downturn? When will things turn around?” These are the questions I'll try and answer in today's episode of the Best in Wealth podcast! [bctt tweet="What is driving the stock market gains? We share what we think it is and why it might stick in this episode of Best in Wealth! #wealth #retirement #investing #PersonalFinance #FinancialPlanning #RetirementPlanning #WealthManagement" username=""] Outline of This Episode [1:22] What question am I asked the most? [3:07] Reminder: We do not have a crystal ball [4:54] What's happened since the 4th quarter? [7:27] Why investors are feeling bearish [8:48] What the data is pointing toward [13:45] How we invest, bear or bull market Why I'm sharing this piece My company, Fortress Planning Group, brought on a new partner in march—Brian Cayon. He is a Certified Financial Analyst and a CPA. Brian recently wrote a piece about where the stock market is headed. But let's be clear here—we do not have a crystal ball. The economy is impacted by thousands of things, some things we can't be aware of. You should not listen to anyone who says where the stock market is headed next with 100% certainty. But the reason I want to share the piece Brian wrote is because it is a message of hope. Let's dive in! What's happened since the 4th quarter? After a horrible year, the financial markets have seen a significant rally in the last two months. In October and November, the S&P 500 was up over 14%. The MSCI Index (foreign stocks) is up over 15%. The Aggregate Bond Index is up 2.33% quarter-to-date. Is this nothing more than a bear market rally, when you see a solid month before another market drop? After all, we saw this in the first month of the third quarter. While this could be a bear market rally, Brian believes that this rally is justified. Why? Because of the improved outlook on inflation. This Feds response to inflation is the single biggest driving force to the 2022 decline in the financial markets. [bctt tweet="What's happened since the 4th quarter in the stock market? Why does it give us hope? I share some thoughts in this episode of Best in Wealth! #wealth #retirement #investing #PersonalFinance #FinancialPlanning #RetirementPlanning #WealthManagement" username=""] Why investors are feeling bearish The general consensus among investors is this: inflation is sticky and will remain elevated for years (until it falls to a target of 2% per year). Others think the Fed won't slow rates until inflation nears the target of 2%—or something breaks. Still others think the US Economy is tipping into a recession. They don't see a meaningful recovery until after we have a recession. But what if they're wrong? What the data is pointing toward Inflation is already breaking to the downside and is now being reflected in the hard data. The October CPI print slowed to a 3–4% annualized inflation rate. The November print is expected to be similar. The Fed has also acknowledged softening inflation data, which means they might slow rate hikes. December could be the last hike (expected to be half a percent). The labor market has slowed considerably, without a big rise in unemployment (over 200,000 jobs were added last month). The US economy is resilient and consumer spending remains robust. Corporations have absorbed rising costs without much demand destruction or a major hit to earrings—so far. In the last two months, the data has improved. But investors are still bearish. This is shown in investor surveys, fund flow data, and fund manager surveys. The Bank of America survey shows that the risk appetite is the lowest it's ever been. But none of...
(12/1/22) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Wednesday implied concern about over-tightening the economy, a very different tack than was expressed just a month ago, when he said he WASN'T worried about over-tightening because the Fed had "tools to solve that problem." What's changed? Employment is showing signs of weakening, manufacturing is showing signs of slowing, so NOW he's worried about over-tightening. That's all market bulls needed to hear to surge 3.1%. But to put that into perspective, we rallied 5.5% following the release of October CPI on anticipation the Fed would slow the pace of its rate increases. But that's not what Powell said: The Fed may need to hike even more next year, raising the potential for a terminal rate of over 5%. Markets didn't hear that, however. Markets are getting a bit over-bought, the MACD Buy-signal is still in place, and markets have gotten above the 200-DMA. But with markets over-bought, it may be a little late to be chasing them; be careful! Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKEJHJAXIYM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #JeromePowell #FederalReserve #InterestRateHikes #MarketSupport #MarketRisk #Markets #Money #Investing
Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news some policymakers are doubling down on their goals, while others are wavering.But first in the US, the Dallas Fed factory survey fell as new orders retreated. Price growth eased while wage growth remained elevated. But their negative sentiment eased somewhat and future production indicators improved a lot.But despite these clear signs American economic expansion has topped out, Fed officials are not easing up on their inflation-fighting rhetoric. Influential New York Fed President Williams said policymakers have more work to do to curb inflation, which remains “far too high” despite some recent improvement in supply chain challenges. “Further tightening of monetary policy should help restore balance between demand and supply and bring inflation back to 2% over the next few years,” he noted. His predecessor is also calling for holding the policy line. Both of them seem to suspect Powell may be vulnerable to pressure to ease present policy.In China, officials there are also toughening it out; police were out in force to discourage protest gatherings in Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong. This comes as state-media doubled down on Beijing's zero-tolerance approach to the pandemic, even as their own public health experts urge a rethink.Hong Kong exports retreated again to be more than -10% lower than year-ago levels. That is six consecutive months of retreat.In Taiwan, consumer sentiment dropped to a 13 year low in November as lower global trade and the geopolitical squeeze bites into family finances there. It is telling that sentiment is well below pandemic levels.In Australia, retail sales in unexpectedly dipped by -0.2% in October from September when a +0.5% rise was expected on top of a +0.6% gain in September. This was the first drop in retail trade since December 2021, and comes amid cost of living pressures and rising interest rates. Department stores had the largest fall, down -2.4% in a month. Overall, year-on-year the rise eased to +12.5%. In November, some major retailers are reporting strong trading conditions.And tomorrow, Australia will release its October CPI data and that is expected to rise to +7.5%, keeping pressure on the RBA which is showing signs of wavering commitments to fighting inflation.And we should note that the price of rice is rising, now back approach a two-year high which was an all-time record high. Demand is rising, supply is falling especially from the US, and some key countries (like India) are restricting exports. Stocks in some large consumer countries are falling. The recent pullback of high global food prices may have only been temporary.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.71% and up +2 bps. The price of gold will open today down -US$10 at US$1745/oz.And oil prices start today up +50 USc from this time yesterday at just on US$77/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$84/bbl. But these levels are a recovery from a intra-day dip.The Kiwi dollar will open today at 62 USc, and down -½c from this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are little-changed at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are soft at 59.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 70.9 and down -40 bps from this time yesterday.The bitcoin price is now at US$16,177 and down -2.2% from this time yesterday. Another large crypto platform has filed for bankruptcy protection. Volatility over the past 24 hours has modest at just +/- 1.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.
Consumer Price Index Even with all the fear, the consumer is still shopping. In October, retail sales were up 1.3% compared to September and up 8.3% compared to October 2021. This outpaced the inflation rate in the October CPI report which saw prices grow 0.4% month-over-month and 7.7% year-over-year. There were definitely areas in the retail sales report that benefited from higher prices as sales at gasoline stations were up 17.8% compared to last year and grocery stores saw sales climb 8.0% during the same time frame. For reference, the CPI showed gas prices climbed 17.5% year-over-year and food at home prices were up 12.4%. Other areas of strength in the report compared to last October were food services and drinking places up 14.1%, non-store retailers up 11.5%, and building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers up 9.2%. The only two areas that saw declines were department stores, which fell 1.6% and electronics & appliance stores, which saw a decline of 12.1%. Two potential catalysts for the report included an additional Amazon Prime day in the month and the distribution of "inflation relief checks" of up to $1,050 in California. I hope that we do not see additional stimulus like this going forward as I believe it could create even more problems with inflation as it would create artificial demand. Inflation Good news on the inflation fronts this morning as the October Producer Price Index (PPI) climbed 0.2% compared to last month. This was below the estimate of 0.4% and resulted in a year-over-year gain of 8%. It's crazy to think that an 8% increase is good news, but the numbers are decelerating. In September the year-over-year gain was 8.4% and back in March the report showed a gain of 11.7%. If commodity prices can stabilize/decrease even slightly and if we stop pumping money into the economy, I continue to believe inflation will be much less of a problem in 2023. Home Sales Mark down 9 straight monthly declines in existing home sales as there was a decline of 5.9% from September to October. With an annualized pace of 4.43 million units in the month of October, existing home sales fell 28.4% compared to October 2021 and registered the slowest pace since December 2011, excluding the brief drop that occurred during the beginning of Covid. Demand has clearly taken a drastic fall but supply still remains an issue. With just 1.22 million homes for sale at the end of the month there's still just a 3.3-month supply at the current sales pace. With prices still expensive and mortgage rates likely to remain high, I'm still expecting a weak housing market in 2023. S&P 500 Companies As interest rates are rising, corporations are paying off debt to reduce expenses. The S&P 500 companies have about $9.3 trillion in debt and with businesses performing well, they are sitting on about $2 trillion in cash which is close to $500 billion more than these companies had in 2019. This will strengthen the businesses even more, increasing the value of many of these companies. Costco vs. Sam's Club We all feel that the price for everything is going up, but there is one thing I found that for nearly 40 years has stayed at the same price. That is a hotdog and drink at Costco. Since 1985 that price has stayed at $1.50 and also, they have not done any shrinkage to the product. If you want a better deal than that you can now head on over to Sam's Club and get a hotdog and drink for $1.38. To keep prices low this is what the economy needs, more competition & more supply, not a reduction in demand. Harrison Johnson (CFP) - Income Related Monthly Adjusted Amount (IRMAA)
With inflation starting to head downwards, the markets are getting hopeful the Fed may pivot or at least pause sooner than expected. And while the Fed is clearly hoping to quell any rampant enthusiasm, investors are busy making up their own minds -- which is a big factor why we saw such a massive rally in both stocks and bonds last week after the October CPI number was released. To get an update on the latest of what the markets, especially the all-important bond market is telling us right now, we have the good fortune to be speaking with former bond portfolio manager Alf Peccatiello. https://youtu.be/p8baHKKRYog
Is inflation pulling back or blowing up into a worldwide financial disaster? The latest CPI report shows that U.S. inflation has come down substantially, but just a week before that, the Fed hiked short-term interest rates by three-quarters of a percent in its battle against high prices. The CPI report is now changing what some economists believe the Fed will or should do next. But inflation is also a worldwide problem and some doom and gloom economists are worried about the possibility of “global hyperinflation.” Let's take a look at a hedge fund warning and how real estate can protect you from this kind of uncertainty.Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. First, the October CPI shows a lower-than-expected .4% increase in consumer prices. That brings the annual rate down from 8.2% in September to 7.7% in October. (1) It's still too high but as economist Andrew Hunter at Capital Economics said in a CNBC report: “At least it's a move in the right direction.” The report triggered a huge stock market rally right after that report, with the Dow closing up more than 1,000 points. There's also a lot of talk about how inflation is much lower than it appears, because the inflation reports use lagging data.After the CPI report, Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel told CNBC that “inflation is basically over” and the Fed is getting it wrong because it's not using up-to-date information, including data on the housing market. (2) He says there's already a decline in both home and rent prices and believes the Fed isn't taking that into consideration. When asked when the Fed should have stopped implementing aggressive rate hikes, Siegel says like “yesterday.”He says the Fed still has time to take its foot off the brake at the December meeting. Any decisions at that meeting will also be influenced by the “next” CPI report for November, which will be released just ahead of that meeting.Is the World on the Verge of Hyperinflation?Meantime, one of the world's largest hedge funds recently sent letters to clients, warning them that the world could be on the verge of hyperinflation. That's when the value of your money disappears rapidly and the cost of goods changes so quickly that stores want you to ask for the price. As reported by the Financial Times, the Florida-based Ellio Fund says we are in an “extremely challenging” situation and possibly the worst since World War II. Ellio was founded by billionaire Paul Singer and manages more than $50 billion in assets. (3)In the letter it sent to clients, the firm said that “investors should not assume they have seen everything” because they have experienced other financial crises, like the dotcom bust or the 2008 financial crisis. It says that today's situation is the culmination of an extreme set of financial scenarios at the end of a long period of cheap money, and that hyperinflation is a very real possibility that could cause a “global societal collapse and civil or international strife.” There's no guarantee this will happen, but the hedge fund says that we are currently headed in that direction. Elliot suggests that the stock markets will fall further, possibly as much as 50% from their peak. According to the Financial Times, the hedge fund is currently up 6.4% this year, and has only lost money in two calendar years since its launch in 1977. Fund managers named a few of the bigger financial risks it sees in the road ahead. They include potential bank losses on bridge financing, potential markdowns on collateralized loan obligations, and losses from leveraged private equity. Global Rates of InflationSo how does U.S. inflation compare to other countries?The Consumer Price Index topped 9% in June, which is the highest it's been in 40 years, but it has fallen slightly since then, to 8.5% in July and 8.2% in September. For comparison, let's take a look at a list of countries and their rates of inflation on the Trading Economics website. (4) The September/October reading on inflation ranges from -2.5% in South Sudan to 269% in Zimbabwe. Only three countries have a negative reading, and most countries are in the single to lower double digits, but we already know that it doesn't take much of an increase to cause a lot of financial pain.In the U.S., inflation has subsided a bit from 9.1% in June to 8.2% in September. Our neighbor to the north, in Canada, the inflation rate is 6.9%. To the south, in Mexico, the inflation rate is 8.7%. The United Kingdom is battling an inflation rate of 10.1%, and in Italy, it's 11.9%. France and Spain are lower at 6.2% and 7.3% respectively. Russian inflation is quite high at 13.7%. But there are many countries experiencing an inflation rate of 20% or higher, and even some with triple digit inflation. In August inflation hit 117% in Sudan and 139% in Syria. Last month, in October, Venezuela had an inflation rate of 156%. Lebanon is up to around 162% and then there's Zimbabwe, which I previously mentioned with a rate of 269%.Definition of “Hyperinflation”Those are annual rates of inflation, so none of them meet the definition of “hyperinflation.” According to USNews.com, hyperinflation is “a phenomenon in which the prices of goods and services in an economy rise uncontrollably in a short period.” It is “typically considered hyperinflation if prices rise by 50% or more in a month, which is an annualized inflation rate of at least 14,000%.” (5)Not all financial experts agree with the idea that hyperinflation will cause havoc around the world. The International Monetary Fund's Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, believes that U.S. inflation is reaching its peak, which sounds very dovish. She told Bloomberg: “I'm not going to jump ahead of data, but it is very possible that we are peaking.” She says: “We now see central banks very united on fighting inflation as a top priority and rightly so.” (6)Protect Yourself with Real EstateBut the future is not certain, and it's wise to protect the value of your assets, even if worldwide hyperinflation doesn't manifest. I believe we can protect ourselves with income producing residential real estate because people will always need a place to live, and there's a huge shortage of homes in the U.S. Even if your portfolio values dip, the assets will not fade into nothing, the way currency can during periods of hyperinflation. It's something you can count on and history shows that property values typically recover and appreciate.It does cost more to buy property with a loan right now, but even at 7%, it's much lower than it has been historically. According to an article in Mynd, 7% still qualifies as a low rate. Back in October of 1981, the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate loan spiked to almost 19%. (7)Mynd Vice President Dennis Bron supports the idea of real estate as a hedge against inflation. He says: “Even in this crazy environment, property is still a relatively safe investment.” In this article, he refers to single-family rental homes which produce rental income along with tax write-offs for expenses and depreciation. Although some housing markets are seeing a home price correction, housing experts don't expect a dramatic downturn because housing demand is so strong.Mynd's Senior Vice President of Investment Management, Don Gangula, says: “Rental housing demand is going to continue. Some percentage of people are going to work out of their houses for some period of time. A lot of these people may not want to buy, so you are going to have a spillover from the apartment rental cohort who are looking for a home in the rental market.” While it might be harder to find good investment opportunities, many experts believe they are there, if you look for them.You'll find links to the articles I mentioned in the show notes for this episode. You can also find out more about how to find investment opportunities by joining RealWealth at newsforinvestors.com. Just click on the Join for Free link for complete access to our market data, our experienced investment counselors, and our curated list of real estate professionals.And please remember to subscribe to this podcast if you haven't already, and leave us a review!Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.Links:1 -https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/10/heres-the-inflation-breakdown-for-october-2022-in-one-chart.html2 -https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jeremy-siegel-stock-market-rally-fed-cpi-inflation-basically-over-2022-113 -https://www.ft.com/content/f3bb0f96-1816-4481-8318-4f7583326a4a4 -https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate5 -https://money.usnews.com/investing/term/hyperinflation#:~:text=Cons%20of%20Hyperinflation-,What%20Is%20Hyperinflation%3F,rate%20of%20at%20least%2014%2C000%25.6 -https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-inflation-may-nearing-peak-090322699.html7 -https://www.mynd.co/knowledge-center/what-happens-to-real-estate-during-inflation
Stocks are looking to extend the best weekly gain since June Monday as investors hope the October CPI reading, as well as firming consumer strength, will support markets into the final stretch of the year.
In this edition of the Macrocast, Tony bids farewell to the show and tackles a busy week of macroeconomic and political news with John and Brendan from Markets Policy Partners. The group discusses the implications of the midterm elections for financial markets and breaks down the October CPI data, which comes as a relief to inflation-battered investors. Plus, Tony, John, and Brendan predict what's next in the world of crypto following the stunning collapse of FTX.Find the October CPI data here.Read more about Markets Policy Partners here.
Stocks are getting a big boost on the back of the October CPI report showing a smaller than expected increase in consumer prices. Bank of America's Aditya Bhave explains what this means for the economy going forward. Plus, reports say FTX is looking for more than $9 billion in rescue funds from rivals such as OKX and current investors like Sequoia Capital. TechCrunch's Jackie Melinek gives the latest on the story. And, it's been a rough ride for commercial real estate, with rising interest rates having an impact on demand. Marcus & Millichap's Hessam Nadji weighs in on the sector.
They say perception is reality. Based on the October CPI data, the perception is inflation has peaked. But what's the reality? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey digs into the CPI data along with the markets' reaction to it and wonders if the inflation victory dance is a little premature. He also talks about the big rally in gold and central bank gold buying. -An objective look at the CPI data -Market reaction to the CPI data -The trajectory of the dollar -The Fed's soft pivot -The gold rally -Central banks buying gold You can visit the show notes page here: https://bit.ly/3GdC9c5 Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week's economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit https://schiffgold.com/news.
US equities were higher this week, more than erasing the prior week's declines. A major factor in the upside was an outsized Thursday rally in the wake of a softer-than-expected report for October CPI that saw the S&P log its best session since April 2020. The dollar was weaker, particularly vs the yen, and notched its worst week since March 2020. Meanwhile, oil was weaker overall, trading with sensitivity to the evolving Covid situation in China.
Mike Armstrong and Marc Fandetti react to the stock market continuing to build gains after yesterdays release of the October CPI data.Susan Li, Fox Business, joins the show to discuss the stock market surge and what to expect moving forward towards the holiday season.Amazon has made some major changes with some of their properties. Amazon's cost-cutting measures could have big impacts on Alexa.China is easing some of its Covid restrictions that have been in place. Will this be enough to start turning around the Chinese economy?
Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, and Katie Greifeld, cross asset reporter with Bloomberg News, discuss FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried, crypto regulation, and where the bottom is for Bitcoin and other digital assets. Christian Chan, Chief Investment Officer at AssetMark, joins the show to talk about how the market is pricing in the October CPI reading and if we've reached a bottom. Hessam Nadji, CEO of Marcus & Millichap, talks about his company's Q3 performance, the real estate sector and rising mortgage interest rates. Amanda Rebello, Head of Passive Sales, US Onshore at DWS Group, joins the show to discuss DWS launching the listing of three new dividend, value and growth ETFs and investing strategies following today's CPI. Anna Wong, Chief US Economist with Bloomberg News, joins the show to discuss the CPI data and the chances of a recession. James Rasteh, Founding Partner at Coast Capital, LLC, joins the show to discuss activist investing. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Binance is walking away from its plans to acquire FTX just a day after Binance CEO Chapeng Zhao reached a deal that would rescue the crypto exchange from liquidity crisis. CoinDesk's Tracy Wang explains the latest updates. Plus, the fight for control of Congress rolls on, with contests in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia all remaining too close to call. Invesco's Andy Blocker discuss key takeaways from the midterms. And, the next major focal point for investors is likely today's October CPI print. Fernwood Investment Management's Cate Faddis and Gilman Hill Asset Management's Jenny Harrington weigh in on its impact on the markets.
US equities sharply higher, with the S&P 500 logging its best day since Apr of 2020 and the Nasdaq since Mar of 2020, while the S&P also posted its highest close since 12-Sep. The softer-than-expected October CPI report sparked both equities and treasuries to rally as markets pulled back on expectations for a 75 bp Fed hike in December.
Our anchors begin today's show with Wall Street Journal reporter Gunjan Banerji breaking down October's cooler-than-expected CPI data sending tech surging, and CNBC's Frank Holland breaks down the WisdomTree Cloud Computing ETF's best-ever trading day. Then, Satori Fund Founder Dan Niles weighs in on the broader market rally, and CNBC's Kate Rooney brings us the latest on FTX as CEO Sam Bankman-Fried faces potential bankruptcy. Next, crypto exchange Bitstamp's U.S. CEO Bobby Zagotta joins with his take on the fallout from the FTX saga. CNBC's Mike Santoli and Wilmington Trust Head of Investment Strategy Meghan Shue also take a closer look at the Nasdaq's gains to start the morning, and Unity CEO John Riccitiello discusses the video game software company's Q3 results. Later, Newcomer Substack author Eric Newcomer joins for more on the collapse of FTX, and our Julia Boorstin checks in on media stocks responding positively to cooling inflation.
Mike Armstrong and Marc Fandetti dive into the October CPI numbers and how the stock market surged even though the CPI numbers didn't meet expectations.Crypto giant FTX is on the brink of collapse after Binance pulls out of a potential investment. Mike and Marc don't normally dabble in crypto but have some strong thoughts about what may come next.
There is a lot of green on the screen today! The October CPI rose .4% headline and .3% core, both two tenths below expectations. The headline y/o/y increase was 7.7% vs 8.2% in September. The core rate was higher by 6.3% y/o/y after the 40 yr high print of 6.6% in the month before. This has investors thinking the Fed is close to being done with rate hikes and they are piling into to everything except the US Dollar. Joel Elconin, Co-Host of the Benzinga PreMarket Prep Show and Editor of the PreMarket Prep website joins me to share his thoughts on the CPI inflation data and related major moves higher in the markets. We discuss everything from US markets, gold, US dollar, yields and Bitcoin. Click here to visit Joel's PreMarket Prep website.
This week, I've got 3 major financial headlines for you First up, The stock market had its first down week in over a month, as inflation concerns became front and center again Next, inflation concerns were front and center again because October CPI numbers were reported indicating the highest inflation increase in over 30 year Finally, We also got an update on the demand side of labor – job openings – for September. There's still millions of them open. … after that, we will take a deep dive into a question from a new series I've been working on - Financial Fact or Fiction. Based on real questions I get from you. This week's question? Do the rich really pay less in taxes? For more on this week's headlines: https://familyfinancemom.com/monday-market-update/ For more on Do the Rich Really Pay Less in Taxes? https://familyfinancemom.com/how-much-do-the-rich-pay-in-taxes/ ___________________ Follow Family Finance Mom everywhere... Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/familyfinancemom/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/financemom1 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/familyfinancemom Get weekly newsletter here: http://eepurl.com/gblbY9 --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/familyfinancemom/message
In this week's episode, we kicked things off with an honest review of Solana's Breakpoint conference which I have been at for the past week. I had two big takeaways from the conference: 1. Solana is going to endure well beyond this market cycle 2. We are approaching a top in the current market cycle The folks at Solana absolutely hit it out of the park with this conference, and there were lots of great projects building on the ecosystem. In particular, I was most interested to hear from the developers building out financial primitives (banking interfaces, decentralized options, structured, projects, etc...). But there were plenty of signs of excess, which Mark and I get into in the episode. After the Solana recap, we got into the 6.2% October CPI print, and took a look at historical comparisons of the 1940s and 1970s. After that we moved onto signs of excess speculation in the market, with a particular focus on spot and option trading volumes. We also took a look at historical S&P earnings and valuation metrics, and finally ended with conflicting narratives on household debt. -- Ledger: This episode is brought to you by Ledger, your secure gateway to buy, exchange and grow your crypto. Combine a Ledger hardware wallet with the Ledger Live app to access all your favorite crypto services & DApps from one place. All that with the best security. Visit https://onthemargin.link/ledger and make your crypto journey easier and safer. -- Coinbase Prime: On The Margin is supported by Coinbase Prime, an integrated solution that provides advanced multi-venue trading, custody, and prime services for institutions. For more information go to https://onthemargin.link/coinbase --- On the Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like this, subscribe to Blockworks' free daily newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/
One of the most iconic brands in financial television returns for today's issues and today's world. On this edition of Wall Street Week, David Westin wraps up the week in markets and General Electric's break up with Causeway Capital's Sarah Ketterer and PGIM Fixed Income Co-CIO Greg Peters. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers reacts to October CPI data that signals inflation building in the U.S.; and, GMO's Jeremy Grantham warns the economy is over-heating. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
Equities rebounded on Thursday but the move was small and traders are cautioned not to read too much into the move. Price action remains bearish in the wake of the October CPI report and suggests a deeper decline is in store for the market. The broad market S&P 500 is already down a full percent from the recently set all-time high and could easily fall another 2.0% before hitting the first significant target for support. That target is at the short-term moving average, near 4,565, but there is no guarantee the market will halt its decline there. With inflation accelerating to new highs and no end in sight for the trend the market could correct a full 10% to 20%. Today?s action will be telling. If the market moves lower and ends the week at the low of the period next week?s action could bring even more selling.
Consumer price data for October were released this week and the CPI was much hotter than expected, especially for this point of the business cycle. Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan and Senior Economist Ben Ayers share their perspectives on if inflation is mostly the result of Covid's disruptions to supply chains and how the Fed might react to it. [NFM-20130AO.11]
Markets look to extend the gains made last week but earnings could be a hurdle. While the bulk of S&P 500 companies are beating their consensus estimates the impacts of inflation and supply chain disruptions continue to creep into the picture. Assuming this week?s onslaught of earnings reports continues to show the same trends the S&P 500 will likely move up to set another new all-time high. The risk this week is in inflation but not in the earnings reports. The PCE price index is due out on Friday and could spark another round of volatility. The October CPI data moderated a bit from the previous month so there is hope for the same with the PCE. The risk is that PCE prices will rise by an unexpectedly large amount and put additional pressure on the consumer. Worse, a hot read of PCE prices will bring the start of Fed tapering that much closer.
Market analyst, Jana van Deventer of ETM Analytics looks at SA markets with no argument that the SARB's final rate decision for 2016 will be the main event on the local calendar today, October CPI data, surprising to the topside at an 8-month high of 6.4% and expectations for the SARB rate decision