Podcast appearances and mentions of august cpi

Nora Szentivanyi and Greg Fuzesi discuss their takeaways from the August CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for global inflation and monetary policy. Global headline inflation stepped down to 2.9%oya, helped by lower energy prices, while core inflation moved sideways at 3.1%. The monthly pace of core CPI gains firmed marginally to 0.3%, but remains on track to ease in line with our forecasts for a moderation to 2.8%ar this quarter from a 3.4%ar pace in the first half of the year. While the recent slide in US core inflation stands out, there has been some encouraging progress with respect to services disinflation in a number of other countries too. In this episode we discuss the Euro area's inflation dynamics in more detail and what it means for the ECB. This podcast was recorded on Sept 24, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4801321-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4799070-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4794311-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US equities ended higher this week with big tech leading the way on the heels of some positive AI momentum and amid oversold conditions, after the S&P 500 posted its worst performance last week since March of 2023, and the Nasdaq since January of 2022. The August CPI report was a big highlight of the week ahead of Wednesday's September FOMC meeting. August headline CPI was largely in line while monthly core was hotter, with shelter prices the significant component of the core rise, and airline fares higher after five months of declines.

Singapore shares began trading in positive territory today, tracking overnight gains in global markets.  In early trade, the Straits Times Index (STI) advanced 0.6 per cent to 3,553.59 points after 55.7 million securities changed hands in the broader market.   In terms of companies to watch, we have Dyna-Mac. That's after South Korean company Hanwha has launched a voluntary conditional cash offer through a special-purpose company to take management control of Dyna-Mac at S$0.60 a share.  Elsewhere, from a deep dive into comments by a hawkish Bank of Japan policy maker to Chinese carmakers setting up factories overseas to avoid tariffs on Chinese exports, more international and corporate headlines remain in focus.  Also on deck – one last look at expectations before the European Central Bank's latest interest rate decision, and how Adobe is set to unveil a new generative artificial intelligence powered video creation and editing tool in a limited release this year. On Market View, The Evening Runway's finance presenter Chua Tian Tian dived into the details with Terence Wong, CEO, Azure Capital.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today we had the pleasure of hosting the team from Cornerstone Government Affairs for an engaging discussion on energy policy and the upcoming US Presidential Election with Jack Belcher, Principal, John Sandell, Principal, and Sarah Venuto, Principal and Counsel. Cornerstone is an independent bipartisan consulting firm specializing in federal and state government relations, public affairs, political and grant consulting, and business advisory services. Jack, John and Sarah are seasoned experts in navigating the complexities of Washington DC. Jack has over 30 years of experience in energy and energy policy and previously held roles as Manager of Regulatory Affairs and Policy at Shell and Staff Director for the US House Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources. John is an expert in tax policy and formerly served the members of the US House Committee on Ways and Means. Sarah previously served as Director of the Office of External Affairs at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Senior Advisor and Chief Counsel to Senator Joe Manchin, and Democratic Staff Director for the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. We were thrilled to connect with the Cornerstone team to explore this timely and important topic. Our conversation centered on a report Cornerstone published entitled “A Guide to Forecasting Energy Policy In The Next White House: Trump V. Harris” (linked here). Jack first provides background on Cornerstone's history and growth into the largest independent government relations firm in DC. We touch on the implications of the Chevron Deference case on regulatory agencies, its significance for future energy policy and regulation, and how it will impact Congress and the need for additional technical expertise there. We cover the complexities of Presidential Administration changes and challenges of transitioning political appointments, the future of the Inflation Reduction Act under different administrations, and efforts to streamline permitting and infrastructure development. Jack, John and Sarah offer their insights on how a Trump or Harris administration might approach energy policy and rising energy prices for businesses and consumers. We discuss areas of bipartisan support including nuclear energy, tariffs, alternative fuels, and competition with China, how the next administration might balance state-level initiatives with national policy, the upcoming 2025 Tax Debate led by the Ways and Means Committee, and much more. It was an insightful discussion and we want to thank Jack, John and Sarah for sharing their perspectives and time with us on a busy day in DC. Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that broader equity markets were down Tuesday driven by JPMorgan Chase's cautious comments. In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. bond yield traded at ~3.65, down 20-30bps in recent weeks. The U.S. 2yr/10yr yield bond spread flipped back to positive after two years of inversion, this type of flip after a lengthy period of backwardation tends to precede recessions. He noted the importance of this week's economic reports with August CPI & PPI and Initial Jobless Claims reporting over the next couple of days. On crude oil, he also shared a chart of the WTI crude oil curve and noted that the curve structure had flattened out through 2035, primarily due to concerns over global/China oil demand after being in steep backwardation over the prior 3mo, 6mo & 12mo periods. He concluded by mentioning that crude oil prices were technically oversold, with traders remaining bearish but waiting for significant changes in global oil demand to unwind net short bets. Jeff Tillery built on Mike's comments and noted the demand concerns and OPEC's spare capacity reducing upside optionality for long-term investors. Brett Rampal highlighted a significant

Wall Street is three for three this week, gaining today despite a sharp early decline following a mixed August CPI report. Chip stocks led, helped by positive Nvidia comments.Important DisclosuresInformation on this site is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered individualized recommendations or personalized investment advice. The type of securities and investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review a security transaction for his or her own particular situation. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic and geo-political conditions.Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.

US equities were mostly higher in Tuesday trading, though ended near best levels after reversing midday weakness. Today also saw rotation back into tech/semis/AI trade following well received Oracle earnings. Some underwhelming banking sector updates, weak auto guidance out of Europe and softness in commodities. Next big catalysts are tonight's presidential debate and tomorrow's release of August CPI.

Last June, inflation hit a 40-year high of 9.1%. Since then, it's been falling month over month, hitting 3.2% in July of this year. The Fed's aggressive rate hikes seemed to be doing their job, and their 2% inflation target appeared to be in sight. But then, the August CPI report came out a few weeks ago... ...and we saw inflation spike, jumping up to 3.7%. What happened? Where does inflation go from here? And should we be worried about this recent uptick? --- WANT MORE RETIREMENT PLANNING TIPS? Join thousands of listeners and subscribe to the Stay Wealthy Retirement Newsletter. As a thank you, you'll receive a copy of my 2023 Tax Planning Cheatsheet.

ASX 200 fell 8 points today to 7030 (0.1%) as a late rally saved the day after early losses. The market managed a rally post the monthly CPI number coming in as forecast at 5.2% and kicked in the matchout. Banks were once again a pillar of strength with the Big Bank Basket up to $175.96. CBA up 0.5%, and WBC up 0.7%. Higher yields seem to be helping the big four. Other financials sagged. MQG down 0.7%, and insurers fell too with QBE down 1.0% and SUN off 2.0%. Healthcare was mixed. RMD bounced slightly 4.8% on broker upgrades after its recent falls. CSL is still under pressure, down 1.4%. Tech stocks also down in the dumps, XRO fell 1.3% and WTC off 1.6%, with the All-Tech Index down 0.6%. Industrials mixed, WES fell 0.2%, BXB off 0.8%, and EDV picked up slightly. Resources were mixed, BHP up 0.4% with cheques for the 70c div dropping into accounts tomorrow. Gold stocks fell again, EVN down 3.5%, NCM off 2.1%. Oil and gas stocks eased, WDS off 1.1% and STO up 0.1%. Lithium stocks fell, MIN down 1.2% and AKE falling 0.7%. In corporate news, SGR cratered 9.1% as it completed its capital raising without new funds from Bruce Mathieson. On the economic front, August CPI came in at 5.2% (as forecast), driven by surging fuel prices. Core inflation fell to 5.5% down from 5.8%.  Asian markets are biased to the upside, China up 0.3%, HK up 0.6%, and Japan up 0.3%.10Y yields 4.38%. Dow futures up 85 points. NASDAQ futures up 42 points. Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.Make life simple. Invest with Marcus Today.

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss the main takeaways from the August CPI reports and the inflation outlook for the coming quarter.    This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4520743-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The Federal Reserve's desire to pause rate hikes is driven by a belief that recent disinflation would proceed unabated, and could "turn on a dime" if progress appears to stall as it did in the August CPI report, former Fed board economist Steven Kamin tells MNI.

US equities were mostly lower in up and down trading this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq finishing back below their 50-day moving averages. The August CPI report garnered the most attention, with the headline coming in largely in line with expectations (though driven higher by recent strength in energy prices) but the core printing was a little hotter than consensus. Nevertheless, analysts had little sense the release would change the Fed's thinking about a likely hold at next week's FOMC meeting.

DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeffery Mayberry and Samuel Lau kick off the episode with a nod to the 15th anniversary of Lehmann Brothers' bankruptcy filing (Sept. 15, 2008) before running down the market week of Sept. 11-15. For their Topic of the Week* (16:48), Jeff and Sam break down the just-released August CPI print, with a look at headline, core and supercore readings; a discussion of the BEA publishing a supercore PCE price index, its current favorite metric (22:06); and a rundown of various Fed bank CPI prints (24:15): median, trimmed mean, flexible and sticky. On the market week, the S&P 500 (1:21) was slightly down, with utilities up and tech down. On the fixed income side (2:33), the Agg was down for the week while bank loans continued their strong year. Commodities (4:45) continued their second-half surge, and WTI crude's sticky $90 handle is spotlighted as well as the factors boosting oil. Over in Macro Land (10:11), topics include retail sales numbers goosed by gas; jobless claims; and the Producer Price Index, which had its lowest year-over-year core print since January 2021. No Fedspeak this week heading into next week's FOMC meeting, but there were some interesting shifts in rate hike expectations (15:26) for the remainder of the year. Next week will also bring jobless claims, the August LEI numbers and global PMI prints (28:05). This episode was recorded after market close on Sept. 15, 2023. *For more discussion of the CPI, check out Episode 13 on the owners' equivalent rent component, Episode 19 on Fed banks' sticky and flexible readings, Episode 30 on the impact of housing prices, Episode 102 on weighting mechanisms and Episode 104 on supercore inflation.

One spending category that is seeing inflated costs compared to last year, according to the August CPI, is motor vehicle repairs. We’ll visit a mechanic to find out why. Hint: New car parts are a lot more expensive than they used to be. Plus, congressional leaders are working on AI regulations and some C-suite execs see climate change disruptions as, frankly, not their problem.

One spending category that is seeing inflated costs compared to last year, according to the August CPI, is motor vehicle repairs. We’ll visit a mechanic to find out why. Hint: New car parts are a lot more expensive than they used to be. Plus, tech giants met with congressional leaders to talk AI regulations and some C-suite execs see climate change disruptions as, frankly, not their problem.

Ben Rains digs into the market after the August CPI release and ahead of the Fed's big September meeting next week. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 climbed on Thursday to inch back above their 50-day moving averages, while market volatility slipped back near its June lows. With this backdrop, investors might decide it is time to take a chance on some home run-style stocks from the renewable energy and electric vehicle industries. The three stocks we break down today are Rivian Automotive (RIVN), Altus Power (AMPS), and Livent (LTHM), looking into why each stock trading for under $25 a share has the potential for substantial upside. (0:20) - Stock Market Update Ahead of The Fed Meeting: Everything You Need To Know Right Now (3:45) - Is Rivian A Strong Alternative EV Investment To Tesla? (12:00) - Is This A Good Entry Point To Add Altus Power To Your Portfolio? (15:45) - Does Livent Stand To Benefit From The Growing Electric Vehicle Industry? Podcast@Zacks.com

Equity markets were able to claw their way higher on Wednesday despite a hot read on inflation. The August CPI came in hotter than expected at the headline and core levels due to the rise of oil prices and threatens to push the Fed into another interest rate hike. The S&P 500 moved up less than 0.25% on the news, but the fact gains were made shows the market still does not believe inflation remains a problem. The market seems to be heading into a bull trap. The S&P 500 is in rally mode despite the rising chance for additional interest rate hikes, and it is seriously mispricing the odds. As it is, the market has yet to price in another hike, and there could be more than 1 on the way. The price of WTI is up another 2.5% so far in September, the cause of hot inflation, and it is likely to continue rising. The next FOMC policy announcement is 1 week away and poses a significant threat to bullish traders.

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44MsGRn Today was a heavily anticipated news day for markets, with August CPI coming largely in line with expectations at .6% on headline inflation for the month and 3.7% year-over-year. As we had expected, higher energy prices moved that headline number, with gasoline specifically up 10.5%, which accounted for almost half of the total move higher in CPI. The Fed pays more attention to core CPI (ex food and energy), which was up .3% on the month and stands now at 4.3% y/y. All said, we got about what we had expected today: decreasing shelter costs offset a rise in energy prices to some degree, and Fed futures didn't budge much. Yields were up a few basis points across most of the curve, and stocks held in. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The big market story of the morning is the August CPI print. Van Lanschot Kempen's Anneka Treon and Decatur Capital's Degas Wright discuss. Plus, Apple has unveiled a lineup of new products, including the iPhone 15 and a new Apple Watch. D.A. Davidson's Tom Forte breaks down the impact on the stock. And, despite dwindling recession expectations, investors have been forced to re-evaluate their finances. Leavell Investment Management's Andrew Grinstead explains.

This morning's August CPI print did little to shift the inflation narrative in either direction.   Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

As you know, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in prices of consumer goods and services over time. The August CPI reading of 0.6% was in line with economist expectations, but it was higher than the 0.2% increase in July. On a year-over-year basis, CPI inflation rose to 3.7%, which was higher than the 3.6% forecast and the 3.2% increase in July.This higher inflation reading is a bit concerning, as it could put pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more aggressively in order to cool the economy and bring inflation under control. This could have a negative impact on both crypto and tech stocks.Cryptocurrencies are often seen as a hedge against inflation, but they can also be volatile assets. If interest rates rise, it could make cryptocurrencies less attractive to investors, as they would be looking for assets that offer a higher yield.Tech stocks are also sensitive to interest rate hikes, as they can make it more expensive for companies to borrow money and invest in growth. Additionally, higher interest rates could lead to a slowdown in economic growth, which could hurt demand for tech products and services.So, what does this mean for investors?Well, it's important to stay informed about the latest inflation data and how it could affect the markets. If you're invested in crypto or tech stocks, you may want to consider taking some profits off the table or moving your money into safer assets, such as bonds.It's also important to remember that the impact of inflation data on crypto and tech stocks is not always clear-cut. There are a number of factors that can influence the market, and the reaction to the data could vary depending on the specific circumstances.So, stay calm, stay informed, and don't make any rash decisions. We'll be keeping an eye on the markets and will keep you updated on any developments.

Chuck Zodda and Marc Fandetti react to the release of the August CPI report which showed inflation accelerating over the month. The guys wonder how the Fed will respond at their next meeting. Morgan Stanley says 'Fed has done enough' and can lean into duration. Todd Lutsky stops by for 'Ask Todd'. Who is a revocable trust designed for? Will Massachusetts raise the estate tax exemption? What are the tax implications of being gifted a house?

Your morning briefing. The news you need in just 15 minutes. On today's podcast: 1) Talks stall in Detroit as an autoworkers strike threatens the US economy 2) House Speaker Kevin McCarthy bypasses a House floor vote to move to an impeachment inquiry 3) Traders get ready for the August CPI before the Fed's next meeting See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of Market Minutes, Shailaja Mohapatra talks about oil prices spiking 2%, August CPI inflation number, global market setup and a slew of stocks in news. Catch Radhika Rao of DBS Research Group in Voice of the Day segment. Market Minutes is a morning podcast that puts the spotlight on hot stocks, keys data points and developing trends.

Equity markets pulled back ahead of the August CPI report due to a rising fear of inflation. The CPI report is expected to show an acceleration at the headline level driven by oil prices. Oil prices continue to trend upward and suggest the acceleration of inflation will persist into the following month, increasing pressure on the economy. In this scenario, the FOMC is set to hike rates again this year, and they could do it more than once. The question today is, what will the CPI show? If the data is cooler than expected, the market may continue to rally, although it's heading straight into a bull trap. Even with a cooler-than-expected CPI now, the oil price has risen more than 10% in the last 4 weeks and will impact September data. If the data is hotter than expected, the FOMC may be more hawkish than expected at the meeting next week and hike rates unexpectedly.

Singapore stocks opened higher today, even as global markets dipped overnight. In early trade, the Straits Times Index (STI) was up 0.1 per cent at 3,217.57 points after 50.3 million securities changed hands in the broader market. In terms of companies to watch for today, we have Thomson Medical, after the group's public float dipped to 9.98 per cent.  Meanwhile from shares of Olam Group taking a nosedive to what the markets are expecting ahead of the latest US inflation data, more international headlines remain in focus.  On Market View, the Drive Time team unpacked these developments with Oriano Lizza, Sales Trader, CMC Markets.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

European bourses/US futures are generally struggling for direction though Tech lags post-ORCL -9.1% pre-marketUSD at the top-end of parameters but still sub-105.00; GBP stumbles on caveats to UK wage dataGilts outperform post-data but are off highs as BoE's appointee Breeden says she agrees that August CPI risks are skewed to the upsideCrude benchmarks choppy with specifics light while TTF continues to benefit from strike action, metals softer after Monday's strengthLooking ahead, highlights include BoE's Mann, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Overview: Tune into this week's episode of Launch Financial as we discuss the big upcoming week of economic data, including August CPI data, PPI data, Retail Sales, and Prelim Consumer Sentiment. As we head into this monster week of data and await future Fed interest rate policy outlook, make sure you are maximizing your financial suituation and understanding how to navigate this interest rate environment.  Show Notes:  https://shermanwealth.com/your-financial-checklist-for-september/ 

Jim Cramer attends the Dreamforce Conference and talks with Jeff Marks about the future of AI. Plus, Jim previews the August CPI report set to come out this Wednesday. Become a CNBC Investing Club member to go behind the scenes with Jim Cramer and Jeff Marks as they talk candidly about the market's biggest headlines. Signup here: cnbc.com/morningtake  CNBC Investing Club Disclaimer

Oracle reports earnings after the close today, with investors expecting double-digit cloud revenue growth. Bernstein's Mark Moerdler previews the results. Plus, President Biden is wrapping up a visit to Vietnam today after attending the G20 Summit in India this weekend. Center for Strategic and International Studies' Erin Murphy discusses. And, it's a busy week on Wall Street ahead of the August CPI print on Wednesday. Howard Capital Management's Vance Howard and Gabelli Funds' Chris Marangi explain.

Vietnam's Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen by 0.88% in August versus July, with year-to-date data indicating a 3.1% increase, according to the General Statistics Office's report on August 29.

Inflation is surging throughout the nation. The August CPI was 8.3 percent higher than one year ago, exhausting the purchasing power of all people. But a modicum of relief is on the horizon. The strong U.S. dollar relative to other currencies will help mitigate domestic inflation. As this is written, the dollar is 17.7 percent higher than one year ago. For the first time in 20 years, it has gained parity with the Euro. And it is strongest against the English pound since 1985. The strong dollar is beneficial to American consumers. It helps to tamp down domestic inflation. It...Article Link

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news all laser-focused on the US Fed today.In the waiting period before the US Fed policy announcement on Thursday (NZT), the US dollar is edging higher, and hovering at a 20-year high. This is a distortion that is having global impacts. The UST bond yield benchmarks are also pushing higher, at 11 year highs. But equities are little-changed, waiting nervously to see if they have priced in the Fed's expected rise properly. At this point, the expectation is for a +75 bps hike taking the US Fed funds rate up to 3.25%. Markets have priced in +80 bps now, and expect their benchmark rate to max out at 4.5% in mid-2023. That means they expect another +125 bps over the next nine months, indicating they think most of the work has been done and after this week's rise it will be mopping up operations from the Fed. Still, the last time the US Fed funds rate was at 4.5% was in 2008.There was a small fall in homebuilder sentiment in the US in September, but it is the ninth in a row for this sector. This is a sector on the front lines of any looming recession.Canada has reported that its August producer prices fell, making it three consecutive month-on-month falls in a row and taking the annual rise back to +10.6%. Recall the annual rise was over +18% in March so the recent declines are gathering pace. The falling cost of raw materials is a feature of this reversal.But from the Fed's point of view, inflation is still stalking their economy. US retail petrol prices might be -6.2% lower now than a month ago, but they are still +15% higher than year-ago levels. That's a big improvement, but probably not enough.Of more concern for policymakers is that inflation is embedding itself in wider sections of their economy, and the risk of wage-push inflation remains high.China has reported a good inflow of foreign direct investment in August, +US$14.5 bln and +11% more than the same month a year ago. In a longer perspective however, this level is only equivalent to a +5% rise pa from 2018. Good but not special.It has now been two months since many Chinese homebuyers stopped repaying mortgages to protest stalled construction on their properties. A lack of progress at more sites now threatens to intensify the boycott, despite assurances from authorities.Later today Japan will reveal its August CPI rate. It was 2.6% in July, 2.4% for its 'core rate'. Markets expect that core rate to rise to 2.7% in August. The Bank of Japan has maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy for a very long time now, and eyes are on whether these sort of rates will be enough to induce any sort of change.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.49% and up +3 bps from this time yesterday. That is touching an 11-year high. The price of gold will open today at US$1671/oz. This is -US$5 below where it was this time yesterday.And oil prices start today little-changed from yesterday at just over US$85/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still just under US$91/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today at just on 59.6 USc and almost -½c lower than this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are also -½c lower at 88.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down likewise to 59.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69.2, down -40 bps and a two year low.The bitcoin price is now at US$18,987 and -3.5% lower than this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high at just on +/- 4.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

The August CPI report that came out last Tuesday was the catalyst for a sharp market reversal. The headline number was a benign 0.1%, helped by falling gasoline prices. But the “core” number (ex food and energy) came in at 0.6%. There were several factors, but chief among them because of its high weighting was […]

Greetings everyone. On this week's Green Marbles, G3 has Jordi Visser on the other side of the mic to talk about a topic near and dear to his heart. Have you guessed it? The topic is Crypto.In the wake of the recently reported August CPI number, you may be wondering how the crypto bulls like Jordi are feeling. And G3 was certainly interested in getting Jordi's viewpoint, especially because of the widely anticipated Ethereum merge and all the implications that could follow.They get into that as well as many other crypto-related topics on this week's podcast. So please check the disclosures at the end of the episode and stick around for this one. And with that, welcome.Resources:The Outlook Post Today's Inflation Print [VIDEO]Why the Ethereum merge is important3 big things the merge will change about EthereumDisclosures: This podcast and associated content (collectively, the “Post”) are provided to you by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC (“Weiss”). The views expressed in the Post are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information in this Post has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the recording from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing in this Post should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You should consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked in this Post. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement, investigation, verification, or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any information in any hyperlinked site. In no event shall Weiss be responsible for your use of a hyperlinked site. This is not intended to be an offer or solicitation of any security. Please visit www.gweiss.com to review related disclosures and learn more about Weiss.

Greetings everyone. On this week's Green Marbles, G3 has Jordi Visser on the other side of the mic to talk about a topic near and dear to his heart. Have you guessed it? The topic is Crypto. In the wake of the recently reported August CPI number, you may be wondering how the crypto bulls like Jordi are feeling. And G3 was certainly interested in getting Jordi's viewpoint, especially because of the widely anticipated Ethereum merge and all the implications that could follow. They get into that as well as many other crypto-related topics on this week's podcast. So please check the disclosures at the end of the episode and stick around for this one. And with that, welcome. Disclosures: This podcast and associated content (collectively, the “Post”) are provided to you by Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC (“Weiss”). The views expressed in the Post are for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Information in this Post has been developed internally and is based on market conditions as of the date of the recording from sources believed to be reliable. Nothing in this Post should be construed as investment, legal, tax, or other advice and should not be viewed as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security or adopt any investment strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You should consult your own advisers regarding business, legal, tax, or other matters concerning investments. Weiss has no control over information at any external site hyperlinked in this Post. Weiss makes no representation concerning and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any hyperlinked site and has included hyperlinks only as a convenience. The inclusion of any external hyperlink does not imply any endorsement, investigation, verification, or ongoing monitoring by Weiss of any information in any hyperlinked site. In no event shall Weiss be responsible for your use of a hyperlinked site. This is not intended to be an offer or solicitation of any security. Please visit www.gweiss.com to review related disclosures and learn more about Weiss.

Shares of FedEx are tumbling after the company missed forecasts and pulled its guidance for the fiscal year. Deutsche Bank's Amit Mehrotra gives his thoughts on the company's outlook. Plus, the real estate sector is off more than 22% from its most recent 52-week high back in December. Piper Sandler's Alexander Goldfarb breaks down which names have been hit the hardest. And, the new iPhone 14 hits stores today, just days after the hotter-than-expected August CPI print. Big Technology's Alex Kantrowitz weighs in on the consumer backdrop.

We got the August CPI data this week and it came in hotter than expected. Stocks suffered a big selloff. Everybody is betting on the Fed to get even more aggressive in its inflation fight. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey breaks down the data and exposes a dirty little secret that the mainstream still hasn't come to grips with. You can visit the show notes here: https://bit.ly/3eYOJ3n Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week's economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit https://schiffgold.com/news.

US equity indices were notably lower this week, with the S&P logging its fourth weekly decline in the last five weeks. The S&P is now down ~10% from its recent 12-Aug peak. A hotter-than-expected August CPI report on Tuesday sparked a big selloff and raised fears of a more-aggressive Fed and a longer wait before any dovish pivot, while also somewhat undercutting economic "soft landing" hopes.

Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles Listen To This Episode:  Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble  Slide deck  Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin's rebel nature. Each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies. In this episode, CK and I get down and dirty in the August CPI data, and some shocking Chinese economic data, and we talk about bitcoin and Ethereum prices.  Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.

(9/15/22) The Markets' big 4% drop in markets on news August CPI was 8.3% was the follow up to Monday's 90% upside day and the "bullish upthrust" in the market. The resulting 90% down day completely reversed markets' gains, but markets were able to hold on to the rising trendline of higher lows. Futures are weak this morning, so a test of support at last week's lows will be important today. Add to the mix next week's FOMC meeting, and the small possibility of a 1% rate hike. More important will be what the Fed says about inflation, and whether or not the rate hikes may continue. Volatility remains compressed, but there does not seem to be much concern about a potential market crash. Much of the Energy over-bought condition has been worked off, and oil prices now have the potential to rally up into the $90-$95/bbl range, especially if President Biden decides to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, pulling product off the market. The Ten-year Treasury rate has also been on the rise, thanks to inflation concerns and what the Fed has been saying. Bonds are now over-bought by three standard deviations. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CsTiQCB9-E&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Inflation #CrudeOil #MarketVolatility #FederalReserve #InterestRateHike #Markets #Money #Investing

Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles Listen To This Episode:  Apple / Spotify / Google / Libsyn / Overcast / RSS Watch this Episode: YouTube / Rumble  Slide deck  Fed Watch is a macro podcast, true to bitcoin's rebel nature. In each episode we question mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events in macro from across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies. In this episode, CK and I get down and dirty in the August CPI data, some shocking Chinese economic data, and we talk about bitcoin and Ethereum prices.  Join the Bitcoin and Markets telegram for constant updates on bitcoin and macro, and go to bitcoinandmarkets.com to sign up for my free weekly newsletter the Bitcoin Fundamentals Report.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3BioWdI   - Click here to open an account with Saxo  -  Today we discuss the August US CPI shocker yesterday, as the core inflation reading on the month rose at twice the expected pace, taking even headline inflation into positive territory month-on-month despite the huge drop in energy prices. The market tanked and the USD soared as investors are forced to consider whether the FOMC meeting next week will bring a 100 basis point hike. Crude oil, metals, stocks to watch and a preview of Adobe and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US futures are indicating a higher open. Trading in both Asian and European markets has been significantly weaker, following Tuesday's weak US session. Reverberations have been felt in global markets following the weak Tuesday US trading session as a result of the hotter-than-expected August CPI data. We've also seen signals of intervention from the Bank of Japan, with an announcement that it would increase outright JGB purchases, and also reports that it has conducted a so-called rate check, a move interpreted as a precursor to direct currency intervention. Companies mentioned: Citigroup, Bed Bath & Beyond, Tencent Music Entertainment Group

(9/14/22) August CPI clocks-in at a hotter-than-expected 8.3%, and the financial media goes nuts, claiming yesterday's sell-off as "markets in turmoil." The reality was, yes, a big 4% sell-off, but a one-day drop that can only be compared to pre-pandemic market action in June of 2020. But more importantly, markets were able to uphold the bullish, rising trend line that has been building for the past few months. That trend will be tested today. The MACD buy-signal was not triggered yesterday, however, keeping downward pressure on the markets. And, despite the sharp sell-off, market volatility remains very muted. There really is no panic or fear in the markets, nor are there outflows of funds; this was not a big catalyst. There certainly are concerns for the future, including the Fed's next rate increase, and the fear the Fed will go too far and break something in the economy. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qW7paPBP1g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Inflation #MarketVolatility #FederalReserve #InterestRateHike #Markets #Money #Investing

US equities were mostly higher in fairly choppy Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq rising 10 basis points, 34 basis points, and 74 basis points respectively. Treasuries were mixed with the curve flattening after a big bearish flattening move in prior session; The 2Y yield reached its highest level since October of 2007. The Market struggled for direction after yesterday's big selloff. The Hotter than expected August CPI print continued to dominate the narrative. US headline PPI declined for a second straight month, though the core reading was a bit firmer following the hot CPI reading on Tuesday. Lots of discussion in press about growth, supply chain, and inflation risks from the potential rail strike in the US. In terms of company news, a Busy day of antitrust headlines.

Senior Economic Analyst for Bankrate Mark Hamrick steps through the August CPI report, which showed energy prices came down a bit while food prices increased at the highest level since 1979.

Higher than expected August CPI (consumer price index) inflation results punishes Investors Dallas Trading Floor No 619 - Sep 13, 2022 --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/dallastradingfloor/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/dallastradingfloor/support

August CPI numbers show inflation hotter than expected, yet again. The White House throws a party to celebrate the Inflation Reduction Act. Tim Ryan says Democrats need to “confront and kill” the extreme Republican movement. The Pentagon tells service members to apply for food stamps. A Texas school district asks parents to submit how they are safely storing their firearms. The border is seeing more drownings than ever before.Please visit our great sponsors:American Hartford Gold https://offers.americanhartfordgold.com/dana/Call 1-866-887-1188 or text DANA to 998899 for up to $1500 in free Silver with qualifying first purchase. Black Rifle Coffee Companyhttps://blackriflecoffee.com/danaSave 20% off with code DANAHumanN- Tart Cherryhttps://buytartcherry.com/danaGet up to 35% off Tart Cherry Gummies plus Free Shipping.Kel Techttps://KelTecWeapons.comKelTec: Creating Innovative, Quality Firearms to help secure your world.MantisXhttps://mantisx.comBe competent and confident in your shooting ability with MantisX.Moinkhttps://moinkbox.com/danaGet free Filet Mignon for a year with promo code Dana.Patriot Mobile https://PatriotMobile.com/DanaFree Activation with promo code DANA. Patriotmobile.com/dana or call 972-PATRIOT.

LPL Research fixed income strategist Lawrence Gillum and chief economist Dr. Jeffrey Roach discuss what the higher than expected August CPI report means for the Fed, the markets, and if a soft landing is still in the cards. Tracking # 1-05325781

RNC Rapid Response Director Tommy Pigott joins the Hammer & Nigel Show to talk about President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, the August CPI soaring to 8.3%, and more.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Augsburg economics professor Dr. Jeanne Boeh joined Jason to talk about why the markets tanked after the release of the August CPI numbers. What's going to turn inflation around?

Twitter shareholders are reportedly voting in favor of Elon Musk's $44 billion takeover bid today. Former SEC commissioner Sarah Unger discusses what's to come. Plus, economists are expecting price gains to slow to 8% year-on-year in the August CPI report out this morning. Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson gives his thoughts. And, traders are pricing in a 92% chance that the Fed will hike rates by 75 basis points for a third straight meeting next week. Potomac Wealth Advisors President Mark Avallone and Truist Advisory Services Co-CIO Keith Lerner kick off the trading day.

US equities were sharply lower in Tuesday trading, ending just off their worst levels in the wake of today's hotter-than-expected August CPI data, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq falling 394 basis points, 432 basis points, and 516 basis points respectively. The S&P and Nasdaq posted their worst day since Jun-20th. Growth was an underperformer versus value by ~170 basis points, but both factors were down. Treasuries were mostly weaker with yields at the front-end of the curve sharply higher. August's CPI release showed headline inflation rising 10 basis points m/m against expectations for a slight monthly pullback. The release put market under significant pressure, with some press commentary helping push odds of a 100bp September hike over 30%.

Futures sell-off following the August CPI print. Scott Bauer discusses the effect of the CPI print on futures products including the U.S. dollar (/DX), gold (/GC), crude oil (/CL), and VIX (/VX). He then goes over what to expect from this week's economic data. Tune in to find out more about futures.

Core CPI M/M needs to decelerate to flat for a series of months for the Fed to soften its stance, says Jeffrey Cleveland. He and Erik Lundh discuss the reasons why core CPI rose in August. They also talk about how the markets sell-off following the August CPI report. They then go over how the Fed will react to today's CPI report. Erik notes that he continues to expect another 75BPS hike. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

Our anchors begin today's show with CNBC's Mike Santoli and Wells Fargo Investment Institute Head of Global Market Strategy Paul Christopher covering the major indices plunging on the heels of this morning's CPI data. Then, our Julia Boorstin shares highlights from today's testimony on Capitol Hill from whistleblower and former Twitter head of security Peiter Zatko. Next, Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora offers his outlook for the broader cybersecurity space, and CNBC's Dom Chu analyzes the sectors hit hardest by today's inflation report. Wilmington Trust Head of Investment Strategy Meghan Shue also shares her take on the sell-off, and CNBC's Frank Holland breaks down the weakness affecting cloud stocks. Later, Pinterest CEO Bill Ready discusses his growth strategies for the social media platform.

(0:59) - Beginning the show covering the CPI reading for August, which was higher than expected after being flat in July.(13:06) - Peter Earle from The American Institute of Economic Research called into the show to dive deeper into the disappointing CPI number, and explain what it means for the economy.(24:17) - Touching on how U.S. gasoline prices continue to fall and have declined for 13 straight weeks.(31:59) - Talking about how U.S. banks lost a record $370 billion last quarter, which was the first decline since 2018.

Bets that U.S. inflation has peaked is pushing the dollar lower and stocks into their fifth consecutive day of gains heading into the August CPI reading.

Investors bet that August CPI data will confirm inflation has peaked in the US. Wall Street rallies for a fourth day, dollar selloff accelerates. Euro and pound maintain positive momentum despite doubts over energy plans.Risk Warning: 74.89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlook In-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq is up 4%, breaking its 3-week losing streak. But is this enough to call it a rebound? Laffer Tengler Investments CEO Nancy Tengler weighs in. Plus, oil prices are falling, with global demand overshadowed by COVID restrictions in China and the prospect of more rate hikes in the U.S. and Europe. Warwick Investment Group CEO Kate Richard explains what this means for the energy outlook. And, futures are pointing to a higher open ahead of tomorrow's August CPI report. Medley Global Advisors Managing Director Ben Emons and Horizon Investments Head of Portfolio Management Zach Hill preview the trading week ahead.

US equities were higher in uneventful Monday afternoon trading, though ended somewhat off best levels. The S&P and Nasdaq both up for the fourth-straight day, extending last week's rally that broke a streak of three-straight weekly declines. Treasuries were mostly weaker, off some earlier strength, with the curve steepening. Fairly quiet from a headline perspective, with focus tightly on tomorrow's August CPI report and expectations for a m/m headline decline. NY Fed survey showed consumer inflation expectations continued to decline in August across all time horizons with respondents increasingly optimistic about their finances.

In today's Breakfast Brief, we discuss one of the major talking points in the week ahead, the US CPI inflation report for August. The report will drop with Federal Reserve Board members in a blackout period, ahead of the next FOMC meeting.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, find out about Adani's plan to overhaul the board of ACC, Ambuja Cements and also find out about Reliance Petroleum Retail's plan to acquire Shubhalakshmi Polyesters Business Term of the Day: Personal Guarantee

This week was the calm before the storm that will begin next week with the August CPI data and continue with the September FOMC meeting the following week. Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey takes advantage of the lull to cover some interesting topics including some more tough talk on inflation from Jerome Powell, the prospect of the Fed recording its first operating loss since 2023, and silver on sale. You can visit the show notes page here: https://bit.ly/3qoqUnS Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week's economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit https://schiffgold.com/news.

This week was the calm before the storm that will begin next week with the August CPI data and continue with the September FOMC meeting the following week. Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey takes advantage of the lull to cover some interesting topics including some more tough talk on inflation from Jerome Powell, the prospect of the Fed recording its first operating loss since 2023, and silver on sale. Visit the show notes page here: https://bit.ly/3qoqUnS Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week's economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit https://schiffgold.com/news.

US equities rallied this week to break three-straight weekly declines, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing the week up 266 basis points, 365 basis points, and 414 basis points respectively. Growth outperformed value, breaking a four-week streak of underperformance. Treasuries sold off fairly sharply with the curve flattening. Gains this week were driven by factors including oversold conditions, some more traction in the peak-inflation narrative, and firmer labor market data. Expectations for a 75 bp hike in September continued to ramp up this week, with market odds up to ~85% by Friday. Next week's August CPI report will be the last key datapoint ahead of the September FOMC meeting.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news energy stress is spreading everywhere now.Remember in the US it is their Labor Day long weekend holiday, essentially signaling the end of their summer holiday season. Markets will return to regular mode tomorrow when volumes traded will be more regular.But even though they are on holiday, the heat wave in the West is unrelenting, spiking electricity demand and pushing their grid systems to the limit. The California grid operator has declared an emergency today, pleading for users to turn off appliances to avoid uncontrolled blackouts.In China, their central bank cut its FX reserve ratio by -200 bps from 8% to 6% to try and stem the losses of their plunging currency which hit a 2 year low overnight. But these move to protect the yuan are unlikely to stop its slide. Even their huge FX reserves can't do that. China's financial institutions held US$954 bln of foreign-currency deposits as of July, down from a record US$1.1 tln in February, a -13% fall.The lockdown in Chengdu is tightening. Now that region has been hit with an big earthquake, compounding the misery. And another large city in the west, Guiyang is under lockdown orders too.The Caixin China Services PMI fell to 55.0 in August from July's 15-month high of 55.5 amid the recent pandemic wave and the impact of adverse weather. Still, the latest result was the third straight month of growth in services activity, as new orders grew solidly with the rate of increase the second-steepest since October 2021 while broadly in line with the series average. Meantime, new export orders fell for the eighth straight month, down at a steeper rate than that in July; while employment declined for the second month running.The sagging demand, especially from China, has seen OPEC agree to a small oil output cut of about -100,000 bbls/day. This reverses their increase of the same size a month ago. Even though the practical impact is tiny - less than -0.1% - it is intended to show OPEC will defend a price level of about US$100/bbl. Prices rose after the news.In Europe there is plenty of planning, and an equal amount of angst after Russia has blocked energy supplies from flowing their way. The price of coal hit a new all-time record high. Oil and gas prices rose too. But overall, Europeans seem stoic in the face of the threats, pushing back against the Russian actions. When this whole crisis calms down, Europe will unlikely ever be a buyer of Russian energy again.Turkey released its August CPI inflation rate and it ticked up over 80%, a 40 year high for them. It does seem to have topped out however.In Australia, corporate profits rose by +7.6% in Q2 from Q1, easily beating market expectations of a 4% gain. But this follows a downward revision of the Q1 gain from 9.8%. Listed company results are very transparent, so I suppose the downward drift is because unlisted companies aren't doing so well.Aussie job ads data came in stronger than expected, rising +2%. Given other recent weakish Aussie data, it was expected this job ad metric will have fallen - but not yet, at least.All eyes are now on the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate review which will come at 4:30pm this afternoon (NZT). They are widely expected to raise their 1.85% cash rate target by +50 bps to 2.35%. (The next RBNZ OCR review doesn't come for another 4 weeks, on October 5, 2022.)The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.20% and unchanged. The price of gold will open today at US$1711/oz and down -US$2 from this time yesterday.And oil prices start today +US$1.50 firmer at just on US$88.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$95/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today just under 61 USc and little-changed. Against the Australian dollar we are softish at 89.6 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 61.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 70.6 and very little different to this time yesterday.The bitcoin price is now at US$19,826 and very little-changed from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

In their review of the Aug. 8-12 market week, Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau observe broad rallies across all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 (2:39); most sectors of the fixed income universe (3:56), with the exception of the U.S. Treasury segment of the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index; and most parts of the commodities complex (7:12). Turning to the week's macro news (9:25), the hosts take note of hawkish Fedspeak by regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis), Mary Daly (San Francisco) and Charles Evans (Chicago). Jeff Mayberry cautions (11:03) Fed watchers not to put too much weight on tamer-than-expected month-to-month changes in the headline and core Consumer Price Index for July. The August CPI, he points out, will come out before the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting (Sept. 20-21). Looking ahead to the week of Aug. 15 (18:37), Samuel Lau is not expecting much from retail sales, publication of the July 27 FOMC minutes or jobless claims. However, he notes that the Leading Economic Index, which prints Thursday Aug. 18, could decline on a year-over-year basis, which would be “another checked box” for recession watchers.

The Long Term Inflation TrendIn the first episode of The Long Run Show, Mike and Austin discuss inflation, what causes it, how it's measured and what tools the FED uses to control it.Austin and Mike also look at long term inflation and how hourly wages, job numbers and tapering will affect it. They discuss methods of investing that help hedge against inflation.They also share some tips on how to get rich quickly by "pulling a Rockefeller".Hosted By:Austin WillsonMichael O'ConnorNOT FINANCIAL ADVICEThe Information Contained on this Podcast is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, financial adviceUnedited Transcript:Welcome to to the inaugural episode of the long run show with Michael O'Connor and Austin Wilson. I'm Austin. And he is Michael O'Connor.Yes, that is correct. Today. We are going to be talking about inflation and kind of taking a zooming out and taking a macro look at it. What we are our opinions on, on the future of inflation and what we might do to position our portfolios, um, in accordance with that, uh, we, we may have different opinions.We may have similar opinions, but we're going to flush that all out and we'll also do a little. Kind of a deep dive on, on inflation itself, how it's measured. Um, and then some of the levers that Mr. Jerome Powell and the federal reserve are pulling to kind of, uh, either dampen, inflation or respond to what we're seeing, I guess, is a better way to put it.Um, what we're seeing with the CPI reports, we just got one out today. As of the recording of this podcast, uh, new, new report. Uh, CPI for August and that measured, um, a little bit of a slight decrease. I believe it was 0.3%, uh, decrease. Um, so basically you could say a softening or a flattening in the uptake and inflation we've seen over the period of, uh, of a few months here last six months or so of 2021.Um, we knew some of this was coming. Based on last year since no one in the beginning of 2020, if you forgot what happened, there was a little pandemic lockdown thing. Um, no one back then was going out at all and buying things. So obviously there was a lot less money floating around Jason. Hardly any goods or services.Um, so that, that makes sense that we didn't see a whole lot at the beginning of this year, as far as inflation goes. But, um, now that we are into the latter part of 2021, and we're seeing a little bit of an uptick in a lot, a bit of an uptick in, in, uh, economic demand and consumer spending, um, we're going to see more inflation.That seemed to be the narrative of, oh, it's transitory. Um, We had had a conversation Mike, about August, September, October, November, that timeframe that we're in right now and looking to those, those time periods, um, to see what's going to happen with inflation and how that might indicate the longer term trend we're looking at here.And, and just to kind of go high level for a hot second here as well that, uh, Kind of inspired this whole podcast. Cause you know, we're, we, this is the first episode of the long run show. So our goal is to kind of provide a expanded view and just a top-down view, try and step back a bit from a lot of the short-term stuff, fluctuations whatever's going on.Um, and to be able to take a real bird's eye view. What our thoughts, our opinions are for things that are happening and, you know, not just a intra month or intern month period, you know, I would say let's not give ourselves a minimum time span for the long run show, but we're not gonna, we're not gonna put ourselves in a box.Um, It is for the long run. So the long run. Exactly. So with the, with that in mind, inflation, I'm interested to just kind of hear your take on the long run, uh, trend of inflation and, and where you think it's headed from here. Obviously we've got the CPI data, um, inflation rate of over 5% for a couple of months in a row here.We saw a huge uptick, you know, obviously end of spring, beginning of summer. Where do you think it's headed? Where do you think the ball's going here? Yeah, for me, I think the, the, the two immediate takeaways, um, from the last, even just the last month have been number one, you know, the, the whole idea of transitory inflation and how the, the fed has.Trying to pacify. It seems like, you know, a lot of concerns, which at the end of the day is their job. You know, they're trying to make sure the economy is as stable as possible. So, you know, there's definitely some voices out there I would say criticizing them, but you gotta remember that's their job to just exactly things, uh, very calm.Uh, so the, the whole transitory factor, I mean, it, I mean, if you look at it, just looking at the numbers. It makes total sense to have this kind of inflation after such a period of like, like you were saying, like decreased consumer spending, everyone got government, most people got government checks and everything is more, there's a lot more money in the ma in the overall monetary supply.Right. It just, it makes sense to have inflation. So it's, it shouldn't be a surprise. Um, and in some ways, you know, It depends a lot on the economy and factors. You know, it's probably not a, not a blanket statement for every economy in history, but sometimes it is good to have, um, certain levels of inflation, you know, keeps kind of keeps the, uh, the economy turning and moving.And it's interesting, it's it, it seems like consumer prices for products and you're going from cars to milk, whatever, um, have gone up the fastest. Cause that's kind of the easiest thing for. You know, the companies to directly increase the prices on, but the, the upshot of that is we'll probably see a real salary growth occurring because, you know, on the one hand, if it really is transient, The pressures that are, have already been put on.I at least I think this opinion. Um, but I think that we'll see real real salary increase just from the number of job openings. You know, the job it's, that's a whole nother topic of the job data, but it's interesting because there's less jobs being filled than forecasted, but this. So many openings, right?And it seems like there's just a lot of people leaving the labor supply, which is a prime indicator for increased real salary. A couple that with inflationary pressures on the consumer side, you get a, an economic, uh, a real economic system. Probably going to move in that direction, which, I mean, we haven't seen him in a while.There has been relatively slow growth in terms of real salary. Right. We've seen uptick in real productivity, so that's kind of do, but at the same time, you know, back to the first point of transitory ness of the transitoriness level, uh, of the inflationary pressure, it definitely seems. Because at the end of the day, inflation, what, what creates inflation is the psychological anticipation of inflation.So when consumers think inflation is going to sack and what creates exactly. So, I mean, by as, I mean, in reality, it, inflation is always transitory because the federal, the fed the central bank of whatever country we're talking about here is, is designed to. Control inflation. So any rise or decrease in inflation is going to be transitory because ultimately the central bank of that country is going to try and get it back to the target rate.So I think it's pretty disingenuous. Th the fed to just say transitory without maybe trying to, to put some more meat or contexts around that, except I know that they can't because as soon as they're wrong, everyone's going to freak out. Cause we look for we, we try and read the tea leaves whenever the fed says something.Um, but you know, you bring up the, the kind of parallel discussion of the jobs, data and wage growth. I mean, even in my small town where I grew up in Northern Michigan, I saw a bill. Advertising a job at Culver's for 1850 an hour. I mean, that's, that's pretty, that's pretty high for a fast food job. Yeah. And I'm not, I'm not, you know, I'm not trying to knock fast food workers.I'm appreciative every time I go get a big Mac, but for 1850, I mean that we've never seen that before. Right. So, um, there is something to be said for that. However, I, I. Almost as a, it sounded like maybe you were thinking that that's a good correction thing. Uh, that's a good, a good thing for the, the labor side.The way I see it as that could be a. A catalyst for a negative feedback loop where salaries rise precipitously, not in a healthy, measured manner, uh, but salaries keep rising precipitously just to fill the jobs that are needed. But then again, as margins, get crunched more. On the, on the production side of things, you know, companies are gonna have to be charging more to justify the increase in salaries.And then of course, people are going to be willing to buy at those increased prices. And then you get this cycle of inflation. So I could see it playing out that way. Um, I think. Far more time to really tell how that is going to play in how the labor data is going to play into the inflation data. What I thought was interesting in this recent report here, the one that came up today for August, uh, August CPI, um, data was that.Inflation minus food and energy actually, um, decreased a bit over the last two months over July and August, there was actually a downtrend from June, um, in, in that part of the index. So it looks like. Food and energy, which are to that that's pretty inelastic essential. You're going to need a food and you're going to need energy to heat your home and drive right.And commute and all that. So those things are, are increasing. Um, they inflation and inflation rate seems to be pretty steady on those but other, um, consumer discretionary items or. Non staples and food and energy seem to be decreasing a bit, which again, maybe that has to do with concerns over the Delta variant or, or maybe it just is, you know, kind of as a cyclical thing as summer was winding down.But I mean, that was both July and August. So we can't read too much into that. It's not, this is backwards looking data. It's not forward looking data. So yeah, it's um, that, that was really what stood out to me. I guess the, the estimate definitely. Um, I think everyone was expecting a higher number, a higher headline number for inflation.Um, but it, it seems to me that whether it was a higher number or stayed the same like this, I think at least for the short term, meaning six to 12 months, we're going to see inflation, um, B play a role and, and. Main, uh, reason underpinning that opinion is that we haven't seen the fed start tapering yet. Um, which for just a quick definition of tapering, essentially, the fed is buying.Large amounts of treasury securities and mortgage backed securities, um, in their open market operations, which in turn puts more money into the system. They're buying about $120 billion worth of securities every month. Um, and they have been since, uh, mid last year, actually, since. Let's see here July, or excuse me, June of last year, they've been buying, um, 120 billion a month.So that's not a small number, obviously, and that's adding a lot of liquidity and therefore more dollars chasing the same amount of goods. At this point, we're seeing an uptick in, in production, obviously post, post pandemic and into 2022. Hopefully post pandemic here. Um, so, but with the fed, not tapering in September, which is clear at this point, My, my assumption is that until we see the fed start to taper off their, their purchases of $120 billion worth of securities, we're going to see inflation, uh, continue, uh, until, until that time.And probably after that, I mean, I don't know. What do you think the lever is that there that we're, we're going to need to see for inflation to, to, uh, be transitory? Yes. Sure. I think it's a, it's a really funky conundrum that they're in, because I think on the one hand, the fed was really hoping that, um, I think every, I mean, everyone was hoping that the Delta variant wouldn't be as, as according to the numbers as prevalent as it is.Um, I think a lot of people are expecting a much bigger, broader overall recovery at about this time. So I think that the fed is very, very cautious of. Pulling back that tapering. I honestly, it seems almost that they're more cautious of pulling back the tapering to prevent investors and traders and the whole financial sector from freaking out than what the actual effect of tapering would be.I think that the, the perception of tapering is more scary to the fed in the financial sector, then the actual tapering itself. Right. Because it's single signals, but the interesting thing. Will I be interested to hear your, your opinion on this as well. And I, to be honest, I forgot what the question in the beginning, but, um, but I think that it'll be interesting to, to think, you know, do, do you think that the reaction is going to be as bad as.There's a lot of people are saying a lot of people thinking as I think the fed thinks it will be. Uh, it'd be interesting to hear that, but on tapering. Yeah. But what was your question? Well, I mean, my question was I'll, I'll answer that really quick. I don't think the reaction to tapering is going to be that bad only because honestly the financial news has.Very dismissive of tapering. So every, every thing I've heard and watched and read on tapering, everyone, this time around is very dismissive and has said, oh, it's not going to, it doesn't matter. We're going to be fine. We're not going to see a taper tantrum like we did in 2013. Um, because. That we know what the Fed's doing this time.The fed is going to signal it far, far in advance. So it's been very dismissive. I don't think that's going to be a, um, uh, an issue like the fed actually might be assuming it will be, um, which is an odd conundrum in and of itself. But, uh, what, what will. Show investors and the whole financial sector that the fed is tightening its monetary policy is when we see rates rise, which is kind of, I was leading you almost to that, that, uh, that point of my question, because.Um, w what I asked was originally, what do you think the, the lever is going to be for us to see, and this increase in inflation, you know, kind of, kind of stabilize or reduce, um, and obviously rates rising is the answer. But before that, what's going to be an indicator that we'll see. That's a good question.I mean, obviously they're going to have to tape her out the whole 120 billion and bond purchasing before the rates. Right. So that'll be, uh, but I'm sure that'll be a long road. Like you're saying that the fed is definitely taking a very strategic approach, very slow approach, which not, not, not necessarily a bad thing.Um, yeah, I think, well, once, once we see a very clear action plan to taper out all those bond purchases, I think that'll be a signal. You know, at some point, uh, time horizon after that, you know, maybe one to three years, I don't know. It could be, it could be a long time before we see rate increases or, I mean, here's the thing too, is I think a lot of how the fed is reacting to things right now is very focused on, um, COVID and I think if, you know, if we have some, some sort of breakthroughs or, you know, this signif.Um, reduction in cases in the United States and around the globe. I think, I think the fed is watching world cases a lot more than people think they are. I think that's something that they're keeping a close eye on. Interesting. Okay. Um, I think, you know, if you see, if we see that kind of improvement around the globe, I think that would be a good indicator of just general financial health and not the entire world.And I think that would probably signal a faster move towards, um, a range. I think that that's probably at least that's my opinion. I think, I think that if we see global, global case numbers and global, um, infections and deaths going down, I think that would be a solid indicator of just global financial health.I think the fed is watching that, um, closer than it seems. Right. That makes sense. And, and they do seem to be, well, they obviously have to. Do some, some coordination with the EU and the European block with the, the, uh, ECB. Um, so that, that makes sense that, that they would need to take a more international approach.Um, it is interesting, you know, I, I did say we brought up the 120 billion of purchases that they're making every single month. Um, Have though Ben using their reverse repurchase market, uh, or reverse repos to actually take some cash out of the system. And that has been, I think, severely under reported.This, you know, it kind of goes against my argument that while we're not going to see much change in this inflation, um, until we see tapering, it goes against my argument a little bit because the tapering might've already started right underneath our noses. Um, just because they're taking they're, they're taking a lot of money out of the system at this point, they've taken away.Uh, trillion dollars. Um, well, yeah, out of the system, just using reverse repos, which is there, um, overnight operation with, with banks where they will sell, uh, secured treasury securities to a bank, the bank will purchase. And deposit the money at the fed to make sure that they get an overnight interest rate on that money.So essentially it's a, it's a way for the fed to take money out of the system, um, in just, you know, gives them another, another lever to do, to do so, but they've taken out quite a bit of money, um, from, from, you know, what they've put in, which is quite a, quite a large sum over the last 12 months. Um, so that, that might.Put a little bit of a damper on, on inflation, um, as we keep moving forward, because it seems that they've committed to this a large amount of reverse repo activity. They actually set up a permanent facility in July of this year, July of 2021. Um, to facilitate that the, all of, all of these, um, agreements and, and re repos, or excuse me, reverse repos and repose happen at the New York fed.Um, Mm, branch of the federal reserve. And so they set up a permanent facility, which is interesting because in 2015, they said reverse repos were a temporary solution to decrease the money, supply a transitory reverse repost situation. I didn't wrap your head around that one. Um, so they've already started a little bit of that.So that might be an indication as well, that they. We might be running a little hot with, uh, with inflation already. Interesting. Um, it, it's kind of an underhanded way to do it and maybe they like it not being publicized that much, but it is something to keep an eye on, um, as, as we move forward, because if, if they continue to kick the can down the road, when it comes to officially tapering, they may continue to use this as a, as a way to offset those, those purchases.Here's a question for it. Could they just increase the reverse repos? To the same amount there to just do a net zero and kind of, I, I, I don't believe that they, I don't believe that they could do that. At least not with. Completely shifting the paradigm because the, the, what happens with reverse repos is the, um, bank that they have, the, the reverse repo agreement with who's depositing the money, or essentially buying the securities.The fed is paying them a very small interest rate on that money. So what you would do is if you were to put, um, to put. $120 billion of reverse repos, um, each month into the fed or through the, through that, uh, New York fed facility, um, it would very much, um, disrupt the short-term money market, uh, part of the financial system.So I think if they were to do that, it would be. Almost too much of a good thing. And they would ruin the short term, um, debt system that's already in place, uh, in the financial sector. So that wouldn't be a wise thing to do. It would be like, you know, trying to run a race on sugar. Um, it it's, it might work for a little bit, but it's not the long-term solution and not the responsible thing to do.Um, yeah. Obviously, they're trying to be the responsible one in the room, um, as always, but it is interesting to see them Rob Peter to pay Paul essentially with this whole tapering and repurchasing. Very funny. Yeah. And is that been, has that been increasing over time or is that kind of been very much okay.Yeah, we, we were, we were, I've got the data in front of me here. Um, April of this year. Um, they only had 35, uh, yeah, around around 35 billion of repurchase agreements. And by, um, August of this year, we were at a trillion, so, wow. It's very, very much increased just over the last. Wow. Five months. Uh, so it's, it's definitely something.I think that's been underreported, Forbes reported a little bit on Briggs, been reporting it a small amount, but again, something that you would want to keep an eye on and might be a good leading indicator as to what their stance on inflation, what the fed stance on inflation. That's interesting. Now, do you think it could be even a leading indicator if they start pulling back on that, that they're going to do.It could be, I, I would not want to read too much into that just because I don't, again, I, my, my view is that tapering is not going to matter that much. I think really rate hikes are what's going to matter, which, like you said, it's not going to be for a while. That's going to be in a few years. So that the reading too much into when they might taper, I think could be.A little bit of a misnomer. I might give you a, you might be reading into it too much and trying to make, uh, make something out of nothing at that point. So it's always important to it to make sure you're, you're not reading into it too much. Um, but with both of us seeming to think that inflation. Here to stay, at least in the short term, what do you think, uh, what are, what are you going to be doing, you know, for your own own portfolio, if you want to share, um, to, to really hedge against that, is, is there a way you're positioning your own portfolio or how would someone, you know, who, who assumes or, or has the opinion and shares our opinion that if inflation is not going to be a month transitory, it might be a, maybe a year transitory.What is the person doing that in that, uh, circumstance? Sure. Yeah. I mean, there's, there's a whole, uh, myriad of ways to hedge against inflation to be sure, but at least for myself, and I'm a pretty, pretty risk happy person. Uh, I'm very, very okay with taking high risk things, but geez, I'm, I'm, I'm in a gold ETFs at this point after, after the last couple of weeks, um, after kind of digging into the figures and everything, I was like, you know, It looks to be a pretty solid upside, um, for gold and other precious metals and commodities.Um, especially, especially as a hedge, uh, it's not, it's not the majority of my portfolio, but at the same time, you know, you do want to be able to have those, those different kinds of levers, those different kinds of areas, um, that will hopefully counterbalance each other in different situations. So, yeah, uh, personally I'm in a gold and a gold mining ETF.Just because it's funny on most of my stock purchases, I'm very technical, very research oriented person. Who's looking for innovation, kind of the value growth. Um, but this was, this was one sector. I was like, you know what, I'm just going to get the bundles. I'm not going to dive to Depot, concentrate energy on just trying to find, uh, innovative companies.Cause I feel like gold mining is gold mining. Right? I mean, unless you're going after somebody is looking for new gold. Exactly. That's a good point. I mean, yeah. Jeez. If you can find the people who are digging and they haven't found the gold yet, if you can find them, you're going to have some pretty, pretty incredible returns, but that's, but again, it doesn't sound like you're using that as a, let's hit the ball out of the park here.This is just a, let's preserve some value in the portfolio. Uh, yeah. And that's actually a really good point because I think that kind of boils to the ethos of what works. I think what we're trying to do with the long run show as a show here is. We're probably not going to give you the stock tip that makes you a hundred percent turn.Definitely not. Mike Mike on accident, Mike, Mike, I'm going to drop a ticker and it might pop, but yeah, no, that's not. I don't think that's the, I mean, you have to, you have to transition at a certain point from making your gains to preserving your games. I mean, it's just as hard, I think, maybe even harder to preserve your game.Over a long period of time, uh, then than it is to pick the next hundred X 200 X like muscles, muscle gains. Keep doing, you gotta keep lifting. I mean, you can shoot up the gains with some steroids, but that's not going to work long term, but fair point. But yeah, I mean, I, I think, um, having a portion of your portfolio allocated to something that's.Preserve, what you've been building in another section is a really smart way to do it. Then, then you kind of, um, well obviously diversify, but you have your, your own, your own sleeves within your portfolio that have their own tasks and their own marching orders. Yeah. I think that's very smart. Yeah. For me personally, I, I have bought some of the, the gold mining ETFs, I think.We're a little bit counterbalanced in, in our investing approach. I traditionally have been more of a ETF, give me the bundle and, uh, I'll, I'll be okay with that. Um, and I think that's maybe my downfall. So I have added, I have edited a few individual positions, but those are more of a, um, More like, like we just talked about kind of the let's hit the ball at the park.Let's take a few swings. Sure. Um, what I'm using for, you know, an inflation hedge is an, uh, commodities ETF actually. Um, and I, I was actually kind of choosy and looking for an ETF with commodities. You can get, um, a few different, a few different types. You can get. And an ETF that is built on derivatives of commodities.You get an ETF that actually is built on the commodities themselves. Um, so there's a few different, few different things you can do there. I tried to stick to the commodities themselves, or as much as possible, um, and less of the derivatives and derivatives because that market is full of it. So well, I wanted it to be as close as I could to, to the actual, you know, hard product, but Hmm.That's a, that was one piece of the portfolio that I just added, um, was, was, uh, I was a commodity ETF along with the gold mining, uh, ETFs. I think those are two good pieces. Some things also to look at would be possibly real estate. I know it seems like we might be in a quote unquote bubble as far as real estate values, but, um, It's one thing that they're not going to make more of.Yeah. There's no way you can produce more land. Yeah. That's all we got. So in a, I don't know, Elan's, we're going to Mars soon. Get some while it might be. Yeah. Yeah. You can be a land developer on Mars. Um, so, but, but you know, maybe, uh, maybe a REIT or fun dries, those are some good options. Um, again, not going to hit it out of the park, probably if you're going for a eat at a REIT.But something with exposure to real estate is good. Again, commodities, hard goods, gold. Those are also great. Um, you had a, you had a thought on an uncorrelated asset as well, you know, uncorrelated kind of alternatives being a good hedge as well. Yeah. Yeah. And that's actually something that I've gotten into in the last.She's only the last six months is a fine wine investing, which is something I'd never thought about investing in before. And just kind of heard about it from the grapevine. Oh boy. You're in for those folks. You're in for some bands around here and I let it ferment in my head for a little while. Yeah. Um, but I think the hunt for uncorrelated assets like real alternatives, uh, it just kind of led me in that direction because that was at the same time I was getting more and more into crypto.And crypto is a significant part of my portfolio as well, because I legitimately believe that there is a lot of innovation going on there. I'm actually not a big Bitcoin. I don't not a big digital gold guy. All right. I was going to ask you, I was going to ask you about that. I mean, the, the supplies locked, right?So wouldn't that be a good inflation hedge? Sure. But I think at least for me, and this is just personal and this is personal opinion, none of this here's the disclosure, none of this constitutes official investment advice, your licensed advisor, um, and all that. But for me, I, what attracted me to cryptocurrency originally was.The projects that have a legitimate, like real use cases. And sure we have, you know, the, the forks coming out for Bitcoin that are kind of adding onto it and creating more use cases. But I think at the end of the day, if, if the, if the blockchain itself is built to be used for, for. Um, you know, creative purposes, I think it's going to be able to do better in the long run than things that are kind of tacked on.So for me, the things that got me into cryptocurrency were coins, like a theory from Al grand, uh, stellar lumens, like things that had a specific direction to them where they're using blockchain technology, not to just store value. Like it's great. Uh, it's a great way to use. And I mean, gosh, yeah. Bitcoin is incredible innovation.It obviously works. It worked very well and continues to work. Yeah. Yeah. But I, I'm not, not as, as bullish on Bitcoin as I am on other coins and chains that have kind of more broad, innovative uses. Uh, I think if you're looking for just a value, if you're looking for just kind of keeping that. You know, I think that you're probably better off with a gold miner ETF or something like that, rather than investing in Bitcoin to try and lock in value.If you really believe that Bitcoin is going to the moon, then you know? Sure. Um, but I think at least for me, and this is kind of a more, a broad statement as a whole, but as an investor, I look for things. Legitimately believe in, um, unless it's super short term, but we don't talk about that in the long-term.This is the long run, the long run show, the long run. We talk about that. So, so yeah, so fine wine. You're getting back to the point, fine wine kind of came up and started getting more and more into it. And it's a really interesting, a really interesting hedge, especially against something like inflation, where it's this unique alternative asset that.You know, it's physical. You can take shipment of it. If I want, I can actually get my huddles shipped to me and it's kind of oil and a drink. Um, if I really want to let me know when you're doing that, I'll come over. Yeah, yeah, yeah, definitely. Um, but it's, it's a unique kind of alternative asset that, you know, it's not, it's not.It's not fine art, you know, I don't have to shell out 30 million to buy a Monet or something like that. You can buy a case of a case of like very high quality wine for a thousand dollars or something like that. And let that sit and let that mature and, uh, you know, collect returns on the, the, the value of the wine going up over time, which usually it seems like they trend upwards as they get better with age or whatever, but then you also, it's one of those products that is naturally.Pretty decent hedge against inflation, at least from, from what I've seen, what I've experienced. So that's, that's something that is, I never would've thought I'd be investing in. And I don't think has been really accessible to invest in for, you know, not in a liquid way or an easy way for normal people.Yeah. We're not Somalia, you know? Yeah. But yeah. And, and yeah, something less. Sexy than wine investing that just get just crossed my mind, I think is important to, to broach the topic here is just large mega cap stocks. Those may be one of the, one of the better, um, almost. Low risk. I, again, obviously they're an equity, right?So you've got inherent risk there, but, um, those mega cap stocks in, in the, in the U S market are going to fare pretty well in an inflation, deflationary period. Um, they're, they're set up perfectly. They've got their war chest full of cash to do whatever they need to, um, to, to be nimble enough. You know, very good solid revenues coming in and they have most of them being tech companies obviously have room to grow margins even during inflationary time.So I think those are also a good, a good thing to look at. Even owning an ETF, you know, me and my ETFs, even owning an ETF on the S and P 500, still bet on the, on the. Five or six companies. Right. So, yeah, that's a good point. That's, that's also not a bad, uh, inflation hedge either. And, and something that might be overlooked, um, when you're thinking about inflation, because obviously you're going to think gold commodities, hard assets.That's true. Uh, but in, in these sort of crazy times, maybe the safest bet might be a few stocks. And that's a, that's a fun, a fun thought too, because it's, it's been interesting to watch the, the prices of Fang and the other kind of mega caps. Like you're talking about, um, go up quite a bit in the last year and.You know, it's, it's interesting too. I mean, talk about parabolic, just look at alphabet. Yeah. Just look at their chart. Yeah. Yeah. Wish you'd bought it in 2019, but now here, here's the question that I, at least from what I've been seeing and reading and hearing about, it does seem like there's kind of this movement.This seems more and more, um, Uh, leverage behind, I don't know, not leverage, but it seems to be a cascade momentum. That's a good word. Uh, more and more momentum around kind of government actions, both in the United States, in the Europe, especially in and around the world. I mean, have bigger and bigger fines.Um, more kind of, you know, not quite antitrust yet, but we're edging in that direction. There's a lot of talks to those kinds of. And I don't know. What are your thoughts on that? Do you think that, and then we're getting, we're getting very far up the inflation that's okay. I mean, I, I think, um, I think that's definitely, I mean, you're talking about regulation risk there, right?Yeah. And so that plays into it's a stock. So if you're using it as an inflation hedge, obviously there's more than just. Inflation that you need to think about when you're owning a stock. It's a business that operates in the real world deals with real people, real governments there, obviously with a mega cap stock, it's in the name, it's a giant.So there's going to be, you know, antitrust. You know, opportunities for regulators to come in and apply antitrust law to it. Um, or even privacy restrictions with, with these tech companies. That's a huge, a huge concern in Europe as well. So yes, there's, there's regulation risk. Um, I think that's probably a healthy thing.We don't want five companies buying up all the startups, uh, because the competition is what drives innovation. Right. And so you need to maintain that. Um, but I, at this at the same token, I think. From a valuation perspective, um, antitrust is not going to be, I'm not going to be the, the straw that breaks the camel's back when it comes to will, will their valuations will these big, you know, the Fang stocks will, will their valuation stick around.I think they have so much. Uh, internal growth possible just because they have ample resources at their disposal. I don't believe that that antitrust is going to be the straw that breaks the camel's back there. And so that's what I that's, maybe my. Uh, to bullish perspective on them Roman and from a, from a longer-term view.But I think that's why, um, I would look to them possibly, uh, as a piece of the portfolio to think about, you know, giving them the inflation, hedge, um, task, along with the other, the other things we talked about, the other vehicles we talked about, and that's actually a really good point, the valuation perspective.I didn't realize this until recent. But the, the classic antitrust of standard oil and John Johnny Rockefeller, apparently he didn't really, I mean, he grew fabulously wealthy because of standard oil, but he actually became the wealthiest man in the world after it was broken up. And he had interests in all of the subsidiaries that were kind of shattered into and all of them started doing well.And so as an aggregate, the pieces of standard oil actually did better and made him. That's standard oil as a, as a near monopoly. So maybe the best, uh, the best way to get rich in the long run. As soon as you see a company about to be broken up, go buy, get a little ownership, stakes and all the subsidies pull a Rockefeller.That's going to be deemed pulling a rock. You heard it here first? Yeah. Yeah. Well, yeah, I think that's going to do it for us here today on the long run show. Um, it's been great talking about inflation. Like we, uh, like we mentioned, there's a few different ways you can hedge against it. Obviously there's a myriad of different indicators that you might want to look at.Keep in mind that CPI and the data that comes out on a monthly basis. That's, that's backwards leaning. I mean, we're in, we're in September talking about August data. So you want to find your, your leading indicators, if you're trying to position yourself for the future. Um, and, and. You know, give, give different sections.I think the theme here at the end was give different sections of your portfolio, different tasks, give them different marching orders. Yeah, that sounded good. And one thing that we didn't get to touch about, which I think would be a whole other episode is things like the infrastructure bill, you know, what happens if a three, three and a half trillion dollar bill gets passed?That's, you know, that's, that's a whole other ball game. You're going to be watching that stuff as well. Just keep the eyes open across. Across the sectors of government and financial sector and everything. Yeah. There's a lot to keep your eyes on and you have to have them. Yeah. So true. Anyways, that's going to do it for us today, like subscribe and we'll see you next time on the long run show with Michael O'Connor and Austin.See you next time. Bye.Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/the-long-run-show/donations

This week, I've got 3 major financial headlines for you… First, August 2021 Consumer Price Index released last week showed inflation still at levels far beyond Fed's long-term target Next, House Democrats put forward are pushing forward with their proposed tax increases to fund their massive spending bill... and the market didn't like it too much And third, another factor weighing on the market, the potential default of the most indebebted property developer in the world (and the second largest developer in China), Evergrande … after that, this week's Deep Dive is digs into the 2020 Consumer Expenditure Survey, just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. What does it tell us about how the recession and pandemic impacted consumer spending and incomes last year? And what does the average family budget actually look like. ___________________ This week's episode is brought to you by - Honest History Magazine: https://honesthistorymag.com/?ref=financemom ___________________ For more on this week's headlines: https://familyfinancemom.com/monday-market-update-9-20-2021/ For more on the 2020 Average Family Budget: https://familyfinancemom.com/average-family-budget/ Follow Family Finance Mom everywhere... Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/familyfinancemom/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/financemom1 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/familyfinancemom Get weekly newsletter here: http://eepurl.com/gblbY9 --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/familyfinancemom/message

Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan discuss inflation — and whether the recent uptick will persist. [NFM-20130AO.3]

Sarah House, Wells Fargo Securities Senior Economist, says the August CPI report gives a lot of credence to the transitory debate. Barry Ritholtz, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist and Ritholtz Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer, discusses the real returns of real estate investing. Chris Grisanti, MAI Capital Equity Strategist and Senior Portfolio Manager, says he doesn't own Apple right now, he likes the future of Amazon and he thinks Boeing is priced at a very attractive level. Dr. Amesh Adalja, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security Senior Scholar, discusses lockdown measures in New Zealand and debate over Covid-19 vaccine booster shots. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3tCYjMi   - Today we look at a rocky session in the US, even if the session managed to stabilize into the close, cast a nervous eye on the China Evergrande story, break down where to focus on the US CPI release today, especially for the impact on the treasury market, look at a massive squeeze on uranium and what is driving it, look at next steps for UK Gilts and EU sovereigns, the outcome of the Norway election, the latest for EURUSD and Aussie crosses and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US equities lower, with growth reversing yesterday's underperformance vs. value, but all sectors in the red. The big story of the day was August CPI coming in below expectations, though this likely doesn't have any Fed implications. Quiet elsewhere, with Apple hosting a ho-hum product launch event.

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In this episode our Week Ahead series we'll be looking at the main themes that will drive Global markets next week. In the US our focus will be on the August CPI and retail sales, as well as debt limit talks. In the UK it's a big week for data with the labor market report, inflation figures, producer price index all due, and in the Euro area there's discussion on ECB inflation forecast changes.  Finally, a focus on the data and the key events in Asia, and an update on Covid-19 and vaccines.