Podcast appearances and mentions of Dan McCarthy

On Sunday, the Senator Lindsay Graham died suddenly having just return from a trip to Ukraine. It is believed he suffered from a sudden heart problem. Spectator contributor Dan McCarthy reflects on Graham's political career which was heavily involved in foreign policy, his relationship with Trump and sense of humour, plus how Lindsay Graham represented the people of South Carolina, especially the army base which heavily influenced the area.Learn how to earn yield on gold, paid in gold, at Monetary-Metals.com/Americano Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On Sunday, the Senator Lindsay Graham died suddenly having just return from a trip to Ukraine. It is believed he suffered from a sudden heart problem. Spectator contributor Dan McCarthy reflects on Graham's political career which was heavily involved in foreign policy, his relationship with Trump and sense of humour, plus how Lindsay Graham represented the people of South Carolina, especially the army base which heavily influenced the area. Learn how to earn yield on gold, paid in gold, at Monetary-Metals.com/AmericanoBecome a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: podcast@spectator.co.uk Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode, Dan McCarthy shares his extensive experience in real estate and lending, discusses the integration of AI into his business, and offers insights on building relationships, managing challenges, and scaling in the real estate industry.   Professional Real Estate Investors - How we can help you: Investor Fuel Mastermind:  Learn more about the Investor Fuel Mastermind, including 100% deal financing, massive discounts from vendors and sponsors you're already using, our world class community of over 150 members, and SO much more here: http://www.investorfuel.com/apply   Investor Machine Marketing Partnership:  Are you looking for consistent, high quality lead generation? Investor Machine is America's #1 lead generation service professional investors. Investor Machine provides true 'white glove' support to help you build the perfect marketing plan, then we'll execute it for you…talking and working together on an ongoing basis to help you hit YOUR goals! Learn more here: http://www.investormachine.com   Coaching with Mike Hambright:  Interested in 1 on 1 coaching with Mike Hambright? Mike coaches entrepreneurs looking to level up, build coaching or service based businesses (Mike runs multiple 7 and 8 figure a year businesses), building a coaching program and more. Learn more here: https://investorfuel.com/coachingwithmike   Attend a Vacation/Mastermind Retreat with Mike Hambright: Interested in joining a "mini-mastermind" with Mike and his private clients on an upcoming "Retreat", either at locations like Cabo San Lucas, Napa, Park City ski trip, Yellowstone, or even at Mike's East Texas "Big H Ranch"? Learn more here: http://www.investorfuel.com/retreat   Property Insurance: Join the largest and most investor friendly property insurance provider in 2 minutes. Free to join, and insure all your flips and rentals within minutes! There is NO easier insurance provider on the planet (turn insurance on or off in 1 minute without talking to anyone!), and there's no 15-30% agent mark up through this platform!  Register here: https://myinvestorinsurance.com/   New Real Estate Investors - How we can work together: Investor Fuel Club (Coaching and Deal Partner Community): Looking to kickstart your real estate investing career? Join our one of a kind Coaching Community, Investor Fuel Club, where you'll get trained by some of the best real estate investors in America, and partner with them on deals! You don't need $ for deals…we'll partner with you and hold your hand along the way! Learn More here: http://www.investorfuel.com/club   —--------------------

Jerry spoke to Kenmare independent councillor Dan McCarthy after it emerged Kerry County Council had investigated almost 200 complaints relating to overgrown hedges. Cllr McCarthy is also seeking an update from Uisce Éireann regarding Kenmare’s new wastewater treatment plant and access to water for new housing developments.

Alex Moss and Burton DeWitt are back with a new episode of your go-to darts podcast after the Premier League Play-Offs.   The boys kick off the show with a look back at a memorable Premier League finals night at The O2, which saw Luke Littler average 111 in the final to beat Luke Humphries 11-10 and reclaim the title. Alex and Burton discuss whether the 2026 play-offs was the best ever in the tournament's history, as well as if the format will undergo any changes next year.   Devon Petersen (19:30) joins the show ahead of his big-stage return at the PDC World Cup of Darts next week. 'The African Warrior' chats about some of his ventures off the oche, including Dartboard Maths and the IDSL, the continued emergence of Africa on the darts scene, the historic Ally Pally debut for Kenya's David Munyua at the last PDC World Championship, teaming up again with Graham Filby for South Africa at this year's World Cup, and the chances of a World Series event coming to Africa in the near future.   The boys recap the latest action on the ProTour, including Luke Woodhouse winning his first European Tour title at the weekend, and Jeffrey de Graaf and Ross Smith picking up titles in the Players Championships this week.   Dan McCarthy (54:48) calls in ahead of making his World Series commentary debut at the Nordic Darts Masters this week. The darts commentator reflects on his career in broadcasting so far, from how he first got into sports commentary in football and then venturing into darts, his work with the PDC on the ProTour and the UK Open, his incredible run of commentating on consecutive matches at Lakeside, the long commute from Assen to Hildesheim covering the Dutch Open and the ProTour on consecutive days, and his goals for the future.   Alex and Burton wrap up the show with a dip into the mailbag to answer your listener questions.   Check out Dartboard Maths   Check out the International Darts School League   Join the Darts Strava King group on Strava *** Get your own Alex Moss replica shirt (as worn by our co-host at the Las Vegas Open 2026) from DJD here! A % of the profits will be donated to The Ethan King Fund for Ewing Sarcoma Research *** This podcast is brought to you in association with Darts Corner - the number one online darts retailer! Darts Corner offers the widest selection of darts products from over 30 different manufacturers.  This podcast is sponsored by Darts Atlas - the platform for darts players, venues, and organisations. Darts Atlas is the home of the Amateur Darts Circuit (ADC) with hundreds of tournaments held on the platform every week.  Have you used Darts Atlas before? Share your feedback and experiences with Darts Atlas with us by sending an email to weeklydartscast@gmail.com and be in with a chance of winning some new logo Weekly Dartscast stickers! Check out Condor Darts here: UK site *** Enjoy our podcast? Make a one-off donation on our new Ko-Fi page here: ko-fi.com/weeklydartscast Support us on Patreon from just $2(+VAT): patreon.com/WeeklyDartscast Thank you to our Patreon members: Phil Moss, Gordon Skinner, Connor Ellis

WAKE UP AMERICA WITH AUSTIN PETERSEN | MAY 4, 2026 CAN SPENCER PRATT SAVE LOS ANGELES? Early voting starts TODAY in the race to replace Karen Bass -- and the man from The Hills is polling in second place. We break down why the joke became a serious indictment of Democrat governance in America's second-largest city. THEN: Elizabeth Warren killed Spirit Airlines. Saturday morning at 3am, after 34 years and 17,000 jobs, Spirit shut off the lights. Warren's only response? Her 2024 tweet calling the merger block "a Biden win for flyers." Secretary Sean Duffy named names Saturday morning. We have everything. PLUS: The Supreme Court handed down a 6-3 ruling Wednesday that effectively rewrites the Voting Rights Act -- and Florida redrew its congressional map within the HOUR. Dan McCarthy from Heritage joins us to break it all down. AND: Jon Miltimore of AIER joins us live as well as Dan McCarthy from Heritage. JOIN THE PATRIOTS: $17.76/month at wakeupamericashow.com -- 20% off all merch + exclusive in-person events SHOP THE 250TH ANNIVERSARY COLLECTION: 4LibertyShop.com JOIN THE DISCORD: 4LibertyNetwork.com WATCH LIVE: rumble.com/ap4liberty SPONSOR: Expat Money with Mikkel Thorup -- expatmoney.com/austin BONUS CONTENT: $100 raised = 5-min American Revolution hero mini-documentary (plays instead of commercials) $150 = Great Grift Off Liberty Loot LIVE game show -- play on your phone for real prizes

Freddy Gray is in DC and is joined by Dan McCarthy from the Heritage Foundation to discuss why the Iran war is unpopular in America; the significance of China ahead of Trump's visit; plus NATO, Europe & 'Trumplash'.Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: podcast@spectator.co.uk Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

"The Unit Economics of AI - Can Large Language Models (LLMs) Actually Make Money?"A CMO Confidential Interview with Dr. Dan McCarthy, Professor at Maryland and leading practitioner of Customer Lifetime Value (CLV). Dan shares how the CLV lens can shed light on the LLM drive to acquire customers, spend billions to improve the models, ultimately pay back investors and the potential implications on both marketers and consumers. Key topics include: - Why Gemini has a built in pricing advantage which forces all freemium offerings to be very good- Why all companies should have a “diversity of providers”- The rationale for constantly evaluating each model- Why “AI foundational knowledge” is key to generating success from both employees and students. Tune in to hear about the "customer barbell" and why you should “talk to your phone.”This episode is sponsored by Typeface - the agentic AI marketing platform that turns one idea into thousands of on-brand assets. Learn more: typeface.ai/cmoSubscribe for weekly episodes featuring world-class marketing leaders, board members, and C-Suite executives.#AIEconomics #CustomerLifetimeValue #CLV #GenerativeAI #AIBusinessModels #OpenAIEconomics #ChatGPTMonetization #AIValuation #AIUnitEconomics #InferenceCosts #AITrainingCosts #FreemiumModels #SubscriptionEconomics #SaaSProfitability #MarketingStrategy #CMOInsights #MarketingLeadership #AIForMarketers #EnterpriseAI #AIRetention #AICustomerAcquisition #LargeLanguageModels #LLMEconomics #AIAdvertising #AIRandD #FutureOfAIBusinessSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Dan McCarthy of Just Harvest on how organized crime skims millions of dollars of EBT benefits from needy families

Jerry spoke to independent councillor Dan McCarthy who has a petrol and diesel forecourt and is the manager of Kenmare Mart. Kerry Fianna Fáil TD Michael Cahill and Cork East Sinn Féin deputy Pat Buckley gave their views. Protestor Michael Walsh from Castleisland and Sinn Féin councillor Deirdre Ferris also spoke on the crisis. Amber Galwey reported on the situation at forecourts in Tralee this morning. Jerry also spoke to Minister of State at the Department of Agriculture Michael Healy-Rae.

Treasa spoke to Kenmare independent councillor Dan McCarthy, who proposed the part 8 planning for the major development in Kenmare on the former St Clare’s Convent.

Dan McCarthy joins us to discuss the latest DEI revelations, and I also ask him: why exactly is the left drawn to the degenerate, the weird, the destructive? Sponsors: CrowdHealth: code: WOODS Monetary Metals   Persist SEO Guest's Podcast: Modern Age with Dan McCarthy Guest's Publication: Modern Age Guest's Twitter: @ToryAnarchist Show notes for Ep. 2721   The Tom Woods Show is produced by Podsworth Media. Check out the Podsworth App: Use code WOODS50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Tom Woods Show! My full Podsworth ad read BEFORE & AFTER processing: https://youtu.be/tIlZWkm8Syk

To figure out how much a company is worth, start with its customers. This episode explores customer-based corporate valuation and how individual buying behavior ultimately drives firm value. Join JMR Co-Editor Brett Gordon as he speaks with Dan McCarthy (University of Maryland) and Peter Fader (University of Pennsylvania) about their paper, “Customer-Based Corporate Valuation for Publicly Traded Noncontractual Firms,” and how they used publicly disclosed customer metrics to value companies like Wayfair—work that even caught the attention of Wall Street.

Syndicated columnist Dan McCarthy of the Intercollegiate Studies Institute joins us to talk Marjorie Taylor Greene and MAGA, the annual Columbus Day lunacy, the truth about Epstein (and, separately, about Watergate), and plenty more. Sponsors: Monetary Metals CrowdHealth: Code: WOODS Persist SEO Guest's Podcast: Modern Age with Dan McCarthy Guest's Publication: Modern Age Guest's Twitter: @ToryAnarchist Show notes for Ep. 2700

Oil and gas operations rely on heavy machinery and equipment that perform critical tasks, yet most of this equipment remains disconnected from the digital landscape of cloud computing, analytics, and autonomy. This lack of connectivity leaves operators with higher costs, inefficient maintenance, and limited visibility into how their assets are really performing. The traditional approach to equipment design is no longer enough. Operators face pressure to improve efficiency, reduce emissions, and cut costs, but without better data and smarter tools, these goals remain out of reach. The industry cannot afford to keep treating its infrastructure as “dumb metal.” You might think that only big equipment suppliers can make smart metal, but IJACK, a Canadian equipment manufacturer, is proving otherwise. By embedding remote monitoring, cloud connectivity, and AI-driven analytics into its products, the company enables operators to troubleshoot issues without rolling a truck, optimize performance across entire fleets, and gain valuable insight from real-time data. In this episode, I speak with Dan McCarthy, President of IJACK, about how his team transformed compressors and pumps into intelligent assets, why the industry needs to embrace innovation, and how a small-town company from Saskatchewan is now serving customers around the world.

A CMO Confidential Interview with Dr. Dan McCarthy, Professor of Marketing at Maryland and leading practitioner of Customer Lifetime Value. Dan shares insights from his privacy research based on Apple's "App Tracking Transparency" (ATT) initiative commonly known as "Ask App Not to Track" which include a significant impact on business results, a degradation of CAC, and a disproportionate hit to small companies. Key topics include: how the elimination of a Facebook customer ID negatively impacted revenue, why averaging marketing results can be a profit killer, and why analytical time frames matter. Tune in to hear updates on Dan's other research including Peloton, loyalty programs and "How everyone is cheating their way through college." CMO Confidential: The Disparate Impact of Privacy Policy — with Dr. Dan McCarthy (UMD) on ATT, CLV & CACWhat happens to your revenue when attribution breaks? In this episode, 5x CMO Mike Linton sits down with Dr. Dan McCarthy (Professor of Marketing, University of Maryland; leading practitioner of Customer Lifetime Value) to unpack Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) and its ripple effects on marketing performance. Dan shares new research showing how the loss of a Facebook customer ID degraded click-through, CAC, and revenue—with disproportionate pain for smaller, Facebook-heavy brands.We dig into why averages kill profit (stop using blended CAC/CLV!), how channel-specific, time-varying metrics drive smarter allocation, and the practical playbook for marketers in a post-IDFA world. Dan also updates us on his other research—Peloton, loyalty & subscription programs (DoorDash/Postmates), and the “everyone is cheating their way through college” debate and what it means for teaching and real-world readiness.What you'll learn • How ATT broke cross-site attribution and raised CAC while lowering revenue yield • Why small DTC brands took the biggest hit, and how (or if) they can recover • The danger of blended CAC/CLV vs. channel-specific, time-varying metrics • Subscription insights: novelty vs. maturity effects, and behavior after cancellation • Action items to protect growth when signal quality declinesAbout our guestDr. Dan McCarthy is a professor at the University of Maryland (formerly Emory) and one of the foremost experts on CLV and customer-based corporate valuation. His work spans privacy's impact on e-commerce, subscription economics, loyalty programs, and public-company customer metrics.Sponsor: TypefaceTypeface helps the world's biggest brands move from brief to fully personalized campaigns in hours, not months. With its agentic AI marketing platform, one campaign becomes thousands of on-brand experiences across ads, email, and video—with enterprise-grade security and seamless MarTech integrations. Learn more at typeface.ai/cmo.Subscribe for more C-suite-level conversations every Tuesday, and catch our Friday newsletter with the top insights.⸻00:00 – Intro & sponsor: Typeface AI01:35 – Meet Dr. Dan McCarthy & ATT explained05:00 – How ATT broke attribution and raised CAC09:15 – Why small brands took the biggest revenue hit13:30 – The danger of blended CAC & CLV averages17:20 – Practical advice: channel-specific, time-varying metrics21:00 – Updates on Peloton & subscription research25:00 – The “everyone is cheating in college” debate28:00 – Final advice: beware of irrational subscriptionsSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Is it time to finally admit that not all customers are created equal—and that treating them as if they are might be costing your business more than you realize? In this episode, I dig deep with Dan McCarthy, Associate Professor of Marketing at the University of Maryland and co-founder of Theta, to challenge one of the most hotly debated questions in customer experience: Should all customers be treated the same? Dan's expertise in customer lifetime value (CLV) exposes a stark reality—most companies are bleeding money on large swaths of their customer base and missing out on major growth opportunities by not prioritizing their highest value customers. The impact of understanding, modeling, and acting on CLV? Smarter resource allocation, optimized acquisition channels, and retention strategies that actually move the needle. Why should you listen to Dan? His work—frequently featured in The Wall Street Journal, Harvard Business Review, Fortune, and The Economist—sits at the intersection of advanced academic research and bottom-line business outcomes. Having sold a business to Nike and now a partner at Theta, Dan brings a rare combination of rigorous analytics and practical execution, helping both corporate leaders and investors see their customers (and their value) more clearly. If you want your business to thrive—not just survive—in a customer-driven market, this episode is essential listening. Here are three burning questions Dan answers during our conversation: How do you accurately calculate customer lifetime value, and why do so many businesses get it wrong? What are the most common missteps that leaders make when trying to identify and serve high-value customers? How can customer data be used to shift business strategy, improve profitability, and even recalibrate entire corporate valuations? Be sure to tune in and subscribe on your platform of choice: Listen & Subscribe on Apple Podcasts Listen & Subscribe on Spotify And remember, The Delighted Customers Podcast is available on all your favorite podcast platforms! Meet Dan McCarthy Dan McCarthy is an Associate Professor of Marketing at the University of Maryland's Robert H. Smith School of Business, and a co-founder of Theta, a leading business focused on customer lifetime value prediction and insights. Previously, Dan taught at Emory University's Goizueta Business School for seven years before moving to Maryland (my alma mater—Go Terps!). Dan's innovative research and commentary on customer lifetime value, corporate valuation, and unit economics have attracted national attention, appearing in media outlets such as Harvard Business Review, The Wall Street Journal, Fortune, Barron's, CBS, CNBC, and The Economist. He is also nationally recognized for his work partnering with Dr. Peter Fader, with whom he initially founded a business acquired by Nike before their current collaboration at Theta. Before his academic career, Dan earned both his undergraduate and PhD degrees from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. He spent several years on Wall Street at a hedge fund, bringing a financial and data-driven lens to marketing science. As a frequent speaker and consultant, Dan helps enterprise leaders, marketers, and investors leverage advanced modeling to answer high-stakes questions about profitability, resource allocation, and growth. To connect with Dan, reach out on LinkedIn. References and Show Notes Learn more about Theta Connect with Dan McCarthy: LinkedIn Past podcast guests mentioned: Fred Reichheld (on CX metrics), Dr. Peter Fader (Wharton School, on not treating all customers the same) Read Dan's and Peter Fader's research: Customer-Base Corporate Valuation Warby Parker (example discussed: CLV, growth, and valuation) Media coverage: Harvard Business Review, Wall Street Journal, Fortune, The Economist, USA Today, Barron's Delta Sky Club (loyalty programs and customer value example) Ready to rethink your approach to customers? Hit play and subscribe now!

Dan McCarthy -- syndicated columnist, editor of Modern Age, and vice president for publications at the Intercollegiate Studies Institute -- discusses what the Iran situation means and doesn't mean about the Trump White House. Sponsors: Federated Computer & Monetary Metals Guest's Podcast: Modern Age with Dan McCarthy History and the Israel-Iran Conflict (recent episode)   Guest's Publication: Modern Age   Guest's Twitter: @ToryAnarchist Show notes for Ep. 2660

Breda Lynch, who was aged in her 60s, sadly lost her life in a farm accident in Bonane, Kenmare, on Tuesday evening. Ms Lynch was a well-known shearer and won numerous All-Ireland titles over the years. Treasa spoke to Independent councillor Dan McCarthy.

Freddy Gray and Dan McCarthy discuss the LA riots, why they are different to the protests on Capitol Hill and how Trump will respond.

Dan McCarthy joins us to discuss this and other issues (like poor Mark Levin). Sponsors: Whether you're running a business, doing a side hustle, flipping real estate, or just sick of handing over half your paycheck to fund wars, debt, and nonsense, my friend Matthew Sercely can legally minimize your tax bill. If you joined me on the Tom Woods Cruise you remember how great his presentation was. Pick up a free copy of his Agorist Tax Toolkit at: AgoristTaxAdvice.com/woods CrowdHealth: Code: WOODS Guest's Website: Modern Age: https://ModernAgeJournal.com  Guest's Twitter: @ToryAnarchist Show notes for Ep. 2649

John Chernesky, the SVP of North American Sales at NCL, has spent more than three decades in travel, but only just celebrated his two-year anniversary with NCL. In this episode, Chernesky takes some time to talk to TMR's Dan McCarthy about raising twins, celebrating Prince, and grading NCL's partnership with the travel trade.

Today I'm joined by Dan McCarthy, Associate Professor of Marketing at the Robert H Smith School of Business, for a fascinating discussion on how customer-based corporate valuations can be used to predict the future.   Sponsored by https://www.b2bframeworks.com   Brought to you in partnership with https://awardsinternational.com

No matter how simple a metric's name makes it sound, the details are often downright devilish. What is a website visit? What is revenue? What is a customer? Go one level deeper with a metric like customer acquisition cost (CAC) or customer lifetime value (CLV or LTV, depending on how you acronym), and things can get messy in a hurry. In some cases, there are multiple "right" definitions, depending on how the metric is being used. In some cases, there are incentive structures to thumb the definitional scale one way or another. In some cases, a hastily made choice becomes a well-established, yet misguided, norm. In some cases, public companies simply throw their hands up and stop reporting a key metric! Dan McCarthy, Associate Professor of Marketing at the Robert H. Smith School of Business at the University of Maryland, spends a lot of time and thought culling through public filings and disclosures therein trying to make sense of metric definitions, so he was a great guest to have to dig into the topic! For complete show notes, including links to items mentioned in this episode and a transcript of the show, visit the show page.

Independent councillor Dan McCarthy has tabled a motion ahead of the monthly meeting of Kerry County Council. He’s calling for the council to consider putting together a fund from the dog licences fees to compensate sheep farmers who have lost sheep from dog attacks.

Dan McCarthy, Independent Councillor in Kerry and friend of Michael Gaine

Dan McCarthy joins us to discuss the recent trajectory of the Trump administration and what it portends for the future. Sponsors: Persist SEO & Woods Mastermind Guest's Website: Modern Age: https://ModernAgeJournal.com  Guest's Twitter: @ToryAnarchist Show notes for Ep. 2626

Today, we're talking with Dan McCarthy, VP of Product at Cyvl, an AI-powered mapping tool for transportation infrastructure. In this episode, Dan talks about: Using lessons from building digital products to improve the physical world around us Dan's repeatable playbook for launching into new industries—and the pitfalls to avoid. How a drop in data ingestion costs allowed Cyvl to open up a new, digitally enhanced way of looking at the world Why nailing the entire go-to-market strategy is just as critical as the product itself Links LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-mccarthy-24543436/ Cyvl: https://cyvl.com/ Resources Unlock revenue with the zone of benefit | Oji Udezue, CPO (Typeform, Twitter, Calendly): https://youtu.be/2WuAGcRwdv0 Build product like Linear | Nan Yu, Head of Product (Linear, Everlane, BOA): https://youtu.be/7ISWLoQtNOc Chapters 00:00 Intro 01:49 Understanding Digital Twin Architecture 02:40 Challenges and Opportunities in Infrastructure Management 04:27 The Role of AI and Machine Learning in Cyvl 08:24 Future Vision for Cyvl and Infrastructure Management 12:26 Navigating Vertical Markets and Go-to-Market Strategies 19:34 Learning from Industry Transitions 32:18 Outro Follow LaunchPod on YouTube We have a new YouTube page (https://www.youtube.com/@LaunchPod.byLogRocket)! Watch full episodes of our interviews with PM leaders and subscribe! What does LogRocket do? LogRocket combines frontend monitoring, product analytics, and session replay to help software teams deliver the ideal product experience. Try LogRocket for free today. (https://logrocket.com/signup/?pdr) Special Guest: Dan McCarthy.

Independent Councillor, Dan McCarthy is manager of Kenmare Co-operative and a close friend of Mike Gaine who was last seen in the town last Thursday.

Syndicated columnist and Modern Age editor Dan McCarthy joins us to discuss what the State of the Union said about Donald Trump, and about the Democrats. Sponsors: Factor: Coupon Code: woods50off & Persist SEO Guest's Website: Modern Age: ModernAgeJournal.com  Guest's Twitter: @ToryAnarchist Show notes for Ep. 2616

A CMO Confidential Interview with Dr. Dan McCarthy, Professor of Marketing at Maryland. Dan returns for the third time to share research on the food delivery business and how marketers can "bend the growth curve" by implementing a subscription model. He discusses the engineering behind various subscription models and why most marketers should "at least" consider these programs. Key topics include: the difference between "promiscuous" and "heavy" buyers; balancing the "give versus the get," and how AI may drive the implementation of more models. Tune in to hear why charging for membership is a good idea.Are subscription models the future of business growth?

Dan McCarthy of the Intercollegiate Studies Institute joins us to talk about what the next four years are likely to look like. Sponsors: Dave Loffredo lost 60 pounds and took eight inches off his waist thanks in large part to his fitness accountability group inside the Tom Woods School of Life. We're about much more than weight loss, of course. Give it a try at OneBuckTrial.com & Persist SEO Guest's Website: Modern Age: ModernAgeJournal.com  Guest's Twitter: @ToryAnarchist Show notes for Ep. 2596

Dan McCarthy joins us for a review of the philosophical and institutional changes that American conservatism has undergone just in the past 10 years. Sponsors: Bitcoin Mentor & CrowdHealth: Code: WOODS Guest's Website: Modern Age: ModernAgeJournal.com  Guest's Twitter: @ToryAnarchist Show notes for Ep. 2585

Dan McCarthy joins us to discuss the election and what the next 4 years might look like, as well as what happens to Liz Cheney now. Sponsors: : Code: WOODS & Guest's Website: Modern Age:   Guest's Twitter: @ToryAnarchist

Finding Purpose and Identity: A Conversation Between Brothers w/ Dan McCarthy:: Ep 216 MMTBPIn this episode, we talk to my brother, Dan McCarthy, who practices law and plays music.We talk about shared experiences and our divergent paths in life. Dan, reflects on his early musical aspirations, influenced by his piano instructor, and his admiration for artists like Bruce Hornsby and Jerry Lee Lewis. Dan also discusses his legal career, which was sparked by a landlord-tenant dispute and a real estate seminar by Alan M. Barry. Despite initial challenges, including being waitlisted for law school, Dan eventually pursued law, finding success and satisfaction in his career. The conversation delves into our family dynamics, the pressures of living up to expectations, and the importance of self-awareness and following one's passion.Highlights:Early Musical Influences and ChallengesChallenges with Music TeachersTransition to Law SchoolFamily Dynamics and Career Aspirations Find Dan:https://www.butzel.com/professionals-attorneys-daniel-mccarthy______________________________________________________________________****SUBSCRIBE/RATE/FOLLOW the Mostly Middle Tennessee Business Podcast:www.mmtbp.comwww.instagram.com/mostlymiddletnbusinespodcastwww.instagram.com/jimmccarthyvosTiktok: @jimmccarthyvos __________________________________________________________Shoutout to Matt Wilson for lending his voice to the new intro of MMTBPFollow him and his podcast from which I may have borrowed the *mostly* concept:https://linktr.ee/mamwmw___________________________________________________________If you like Jim's Boston Scallys, click here to shop and order yours!https://www.bostonscally.com/a/refer-a-friend/redeem/mqgpwi3u0zgm89vaxnv5crzvlolevo82rvcygsn5/1668 ___________________________________________________________***You hear Jim mention it on almost every episode, ME vs. WE and how 2023 will be 1943 all over again….order “PENDULUM:How Past Generations Shape Our Present and Predict Our Future”:https://a.co/d/7oKK7Ip_________________________________________________________________The co-author of Pendulum wrote a myriad of other books and started a non-profit 21st Century Non-Traditional Business School that you should really check out: Wizard Academy - www.wizardacademy.org______________________________________________________________________Curious about podcasting? This podcast (and many others) is produced by www.itsyourshow.co#billionaire #business #entrepreneurship #fashion #love #marketing #meme #middle #mindset #motivation #nashville #nashvilletennessee #nashvilletn #nature #podcast #podcasters #podcastersofinstagram #podcasting #podcastlife #podcasts #podcastshow #smallbusiness #tennessee #tennesseelife #law #lawyer #attorney #music

Following up major bump in the poles for Kamala Harris, Donald Trump has seen his own poll numbers rebound in recent weeks and he goes into election week with considerable momentum but still in a tight race. Dan McCarthy joins us to discuss. Sponsors: & Guest's Website: Guest's Twitter: @ToryAnarchist

Episode 239: What hidden insights can customer behavior data analysis reveal about how successful one food delivery app may be over another? Discover how analysis of externally sourced customer behavior data can fuel dramatic improvements in revenue forecasts and strategic decisions. See how competitor data analysis can help identify strengths and weaknesses that are otherwise hidden. In this episode of Customer Confidential, we're joined by Dan McCarthy, director and co-founder of Theta and Associate Professor of Marketing at the University of Maryland's Robert H. Smith School of Business. Dan shares findings from Theta and Bain & Company's jointly published consumer purchase data study, “Customer Lifetime Value across Food Delivery Competitors.” Together, Dan and Rob explore how they used a proprietary database of credit card transaction data from Pyxis to track customer behavior for subscription services over five years. They describe how accounting for corresponding economic factors like seasonality and the Covid-19 pandemic helped improve forecasts of transaction velocity, spending, and retention. Learn which food delivery app had the best customer loyalty, the most customers, and highest per-customer spending. Guest: Dan McCarthy, Director and Co-Founder of Theta, Associate Professor of Marketing at the University of Maryland, College Park Host: Rob Markey, Partner, Bain & Company Give Us Feedback: We'd love to hear from you. Help us enhance your podcast experience by providing feedback here in our listener survey. Want to get in touch? Send a note to host Rob Markey here. Time-Stamped List of Topics Covered: [02:00] Introduction to customer behavior analysis and business forecasting [05:15] How companies can use historical data to predict customer lifetime value [10:00] Insights from customer data and the role of subscription services [15:30] The impact of external factors like economic shifts and market changes on consumer behavior [20:00] How businesses can improve acquisition and retention strategies using data [25:00] Using customer lifetime value to forecast future revenue and business growth Time-Stamped Notable Quotes: [02:45] “The notion of having a consistent data set with multiple companies in it so you can compare … all these different food delivery companies [means] you can explicitly see them and you can see the same consumers buying across them.” [05:37] “It's primarily taking these different vintages of customers—where a vintage is defined by, ‘When did that customer make their very first purchase with your firm?'—and then within that vintage, what we want to explain is what these individual customers are going to do in the future.” [07:42] “[The data] is what allows us to say things like, is this company acquiring customers well? Are they retaining customers well? How frequently are they buying? And how does that compare across different companies?” Additional Resources: Customer Lifetime Value across Food Delivery Competitors Pyxis by Bain & Company

Dan McCarthy, syndicated columnist with Creators Syndicate and a vice president at the Intercollegiate Studies Institute, joins us for a general political discussion that includes thinking the unthinkable. Sponsors: & Guest's Website: Guest's Twitter: @ToryAnarchist

A CMO Confidential Interview with Dr. Dan McCarthy, Professor of Marketing at Maryland. Dan uses a customer lifetime value (CLTV) analysis to show how Peloton's pursuit of growth after a very successful launch negatively impacted its financials and cratered its stock price, leaving its future uncertain. Key decision points include: misreading Covid trends as a permanent demand shift; price decreases which backfired; the importance of cohort analysis and churn rates; and the unintended consequences of chasing growth through rowers and treadmills. Tune in to learn why "Valuation is a painkiller" and "Everything can be good, but it comes at a price."Dive into the dramatic journey of Peloton in our latest episode of CMO Confidential, "Peloton's Rise & Fall: What Marketers Must Learn." Hosted by Mike Linton, former CMO of Best Buy and eBay, this episode features Dr. Dan McCarthy, a tenured professor at the University of Maryland and a pioneer in customer lifetime value (CLTV) analytics. Key topics include Peloton's strategic missteps, the impact of aggressive growth strategies, and the essential lessons marketers can draw from this cautionary tale. Tune in to hear Dr. McCarthy's expert analysis on how Peloton's quest for rapid expansion led to a significant downturn, and what this means for marketers navigating similar challenges. Learn how to balance growth with profitability and the importance of understanding your total addressable market. This insightful discussion also explores the role of customer acquisition costs and retention strategies in sustaining business success. Subscribe to CMO Confidential for more invaluable marketing insights and stay ahead in the ever-evolving marketing landscape!CHAPTERS:00:00 - Intro00:40 - Dan McCarthy02:00 - Customer Lifetime Value05:20 - Peloton Story10:40 - Data Sources12:14 - Peloton's Evolving Strategy17:34 - Profitability Analysis: Peloton's Price Cut Impact19:30 - Overhead Expenses and CLV Impact21:35 - Peloton's Growth Strategy Insights25:27 - Communicating Growth Challenges to Management29:55 - Valuation as a Business Strategy32:50 - Peloton's Strategic Decisions33:29 - Practical Audience Advice33:30 - ClosingSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Kamala phenomenon has been something to behold: she gained no traction in the 2020 primaries, has radical-left positions she's running away from, won't talk to the press, and isn't all that bright, and yet the numbers with the betting sites suddenly went crazy in her favor. Can she sustain it, and even win? What does Trump need to do? Dan McCarthy joins us. Sponsors: & Guest's Website: Guest's Twitter:

David Gornoski, host of A Neighbor's Choice, rejoins Bob to explain how mimetic theorist Rene Girard influence Trump's running mate, via Peter Thiel.Mentioned in the Episode and Other Links of Interest:The YouTube version of this interview.The Monetary Metals 12% silver opportunity.JD Vance's essay on his conversion.David Gornoski's A Neighbor's Choice.Dan McCarthy on the Tom Woods Show is happy with JD Vance.David Gornoski explains Girard on the BMS.Help support the Bob Murphy Show.

Syndicated columnist and Modern Age editor Dan McCarthy joins us to discuss the JD Vance VP nomination and what it means for the Republican Party. Sponsors: & Guest's Website: Modern Age:   Guest's Twitter: @ToryAnarchist

The question had been asked: what if Trump is convicted? Will he be irreparably damaged among independents? Is there a Plan B? Syndicated columnist and Modern Age editor Dan McCarthy joins us to discuss where Trump stands now, along with many other topics in this potpourri episode. Sponsors: & Guest's Website: Modern Age:   Guest's Twitter: @ToryAnarchist

Donald Trump spoke at the Libertarian Party's convention last weekend (all three major candidates were invited). Jeff Deist and Dan McCarthy join me to discuss the meaning and significance of it all. Sponsors: & : This Father's Day don't get dad another pair of socks or a knick-knack that'll just clutter up the house. Get him steaks, with a gift package from Omaha Steaks. Get a special discount when you use code WOODS when shopping Father's Day gift packages at .

Dan McCarthy, editor of the venerable Modern Age, runs us through the most likely VP picks for Donald Trump, the motivations behind each, who the best one is, and who are most likely. Sponsors: & : Hillsdale is offering 40+ free self-paced courses on topics of great importance. I recommend "CS Lewis on Christianity," where you'll examine some of Lewis' classic works, including Mere Christianity, The Screwtape Letters, The Abolition of Man, to see what Lewis had to say about Scripture, prayer, suffering, joy, heaven, and hell. Link:

EP318 - Temu Deep Dive with Earnest Analytics  Episode Summary: In this episode, Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg and Scot Wingo dive deep Temu, the online marketplace operated by the Chinese e-commerce company PDD Holdings, that has become the fastest growing retailer in history. Joining us on the episode is Michael Maloof is the Head of Marketing for Earnest Analytics. Earnest works with world-class data partners to acquires, anonymize, and productize insight about the entire U.S. Economy. They have posted numerous insights about Temu in the US this year: Feb 28: Temu's 2024 Super Bowl ad blitz failed to accelerate growth March 5: Temu is growing fastest among high income earners March 12: Almost half of Wish, AliExpress customers shop at Temu In this episode we cover who Temu is, how big they have become, who their customers are and what retailers they are likely impacting, their go to market strategy (and especially their marketing spend), the controversy around their use of the Global Postal Treaty, and some of their potential risks. We also explore where they could go next. If you're in the commerce space, you'll want to make sure you are up to speed on Temu. Don't forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes. Episode 318 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Wednesday, March 13th, 2024. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:23] Welcome to the Jason and Scott show. This is episode 318 being recorded on Wednesday, March 13th, 2024. I'm your host, Jason “Retailgeek” Goldberg. And as usual, I'm here with your co-host, Scott Wingo. Scot: [0:39] Hey, Jason, and welcome back, Jason and Scott show listeners. Jason, one of the topics that is coming up a lot this year, we talked a lot at a lot in our recap and our preview is Temu. By many measures, people think they're one of the fastest growing e-commerce companies in history. If you watch the Super Bowl, I think they spent $8 trillion on ads there. So we want to do a deep dive into this and cover a number of topics. We want to talk about a little background around Temu. What's it mean for U.S. retailers? And, you know, it's a Chinese company. Does it even matter? If yes, why? Because Temu isn't public and they are a Chinese company, they don't really disclose any information. So we wanted to bring on a guest that is basically a Temu expert. So we looked around and we found Michael Maloof. He is the head of marketing at Ernest Analytics. Ernest works with world-class data partners to acquire, anonymize, and productize insights about the U.S. economy. They have posted lots of articles. This is how we found Michael. I think you know him as well from the trade show circuit. So he's going to help us do this deep dive into what's going on at Temu. Welcome to the show, Michael. Michael? Michael: [1:59] Yeah, thanks so much for having me on the show. Big fan of your annual predictions and the work you guys do. So I'm head of marketing at Earnest Analytics. We're the leading credit card retail pricing and healthcare claims data provider for investors and retailers. Before Earnest, I was actually a tech and telco analyst over at Goldman. The two credit card data sets we work with now, Orion and Vela, are probably the most pertinent to my conversations about the consumer economy and certainly this conversation today about TMU. They sourced respectively from a large account aggregator, like a budgeting app, and part of a POS system in the US. And Ernest essentially takes these massive and messy data sets, normalizes structures, and then puts them onto our platform so everyone from portfolio managers to marketers can see this third-party data. For example, you'd see market share, competitive benchmarking, customer behavior, revenue predictions, and macro trends for thousands of companies, including TMU. Scot: [3:03] Awesome. Thanks, Michael. And then, so which sector did you cover when you were an analyst at Goldman Sachs? Michael: [3:08] Tech and telco. So anything in the tech space, we had a few marketplaces in there, telecom companies. It's been a while though. Ernest has been my home now for seven years. Scot: [3:20] Okay. Was this in the Anthony Noto era you were there? Michael: [3:23] This was in the vera rossi era she was my my lead where we recovered uh latin american tech and telco. Scot: [3:30] Very cool awesome yeah they did goldman did the channelizer ipo so i get to know the team there pretty well awesome well before we jump into the data which we're excited to kind of hear what you have to share here jason i know this has become a very hot topic in your world you you You spoke on it at NRF. In your day job, you're getting tons of questions about this. I think you're booked out solid with Tmoo briefings. So those people pay big money for it, and our listeners don't pay. Give us the free version of your backgrounder on Tmoo. Jason: [4:05] Yeah, thanks, Scott. And I'm sure we'll spice in some other tidbits as we go, but I'll try to give a concise bullet. it. Temu is a subsidiary of a company that used to be called Pinduoduo in China. It's now called PDD Holdings, which is infinitely easier to spell, by the way. And PDD Holdings is one of the largest e-commerce companies in China. On a market cap basis, they keep flip-flopping with Alibaba. So they're super competitive. They're way north of like $400 billion in GMV in China and had a really interesting trajectory, but a couple of years ago, they launched Tmoo into first UK and then US, now 49 other markets as a new retail concept. And so a couple of things I'd want folks to know before we dive in with Michael, first of all, the name is a loose English acronym for team up price down. So I always pronounce Tmoo as in team. [5:08] There are multiple pronunciations out there, even from Tmoo employees. So I'm not sure there's an official pronunciation. In the United States, they launched in September of 2022. So they're about 18 months old now. And most folks were not familiar with them until, a surprise, three months after launching, they bought a Super Bowl ad. So they became familiar to millions of Americans with the Shop Like a Billionaire ad that ran in the Super Bowl in 2023. And then as Scott alluded to, they bought five ads in the Super Bowl this year. So they haven't disclosed what they paid. A normal 30-second spot in the Super Bowl costs about $7 million. They ran four ads during the Super Bowl and one during the postgame. So estimates are in the kind of $20 to $30 million that they spent just on that ad. There's a bunch of estimates for how big they are in the U.S. I'm eager to hear what Michael thinks, but his old rivals at Morgan Stanley have them at about $16 billion in GMV in the U.S. But more interesting, Morgan Stanley estimates they're going to be $32 billion by 2030. So you think about a retail company that launched in September of 2022, and then in the first year, business sold $16 billion worth of stuff. That's the fastest growing retailer of all times. We do know from other sources that they get more traffic every year than Target. [6:36] They've been the most downloaded shopping apps on the Android and Apple app stores since they were born. So they've kind of owned the top of that list. And a couple other little interesting things. They are a marketplace. They have invented a model they call next generation manufacturing. So they're a marketplace. It's all three-piece sellers that are selling goods on Temu. But unlike traditional Western-based marketplaces, Temu does a lot more of the work, of listing the products and fulfilling the products for the factory. So they may, if you're a factory, they say the only thing you need is a cellular internet connection, and they provide you all the infrastructure to become a successful seller on Temu. There's somewhere between 80 and 100,000 Chinese factories that are currently sellers on the marketplace. And then one big innovation is this week, they're turning on the ability for U.S. Marketplace sellers to sell and fulfill their goods from the U.S. as well. So one interesting question about a marketplace is, are they competing for sellers with Amazon and Walmart? And now they're bringing that fight to American soil. So that, I feel like, is enough to get us started. There's certainly an interesting company that's worth following. [7:52] The way I originally discovered Earnest is through this show. One of our most popular guests, Dan McCarthy, has been on a few times talking about his his CLV methodologies. And our listeners have really enjoyed his his commentary. He has partnered with Earnest Data several times to do some really interesting analytics. And you guys at Earnest have published a couple of those as thought leadership. And so that's how I first met you. And then, Michael, I noticed you published like three articles on Temu this year. Michael: [8:22] That's right. Right. Teamio has been one of the top client asked for themes. It's definitely something we're seeing a lot in the press. We work a lot with those thought leaders as well. And that's something that we're getting a lot of questions on from everyone from business to fashion to Dan McCarthy. So glad to answer any questions there. We are kind of in a unique spot, kind of have the dashboard on the consumer economy, if you will. Basically what's going on within the last few days we can see everything from customer acquisition they have to their gross market merchandise value. Scot: [8:56] Got it let's let's start at the basics and let's pretend you know so i see Temu and you know it looks like they've got and you know one of my theories is it feels a lot like wish.com so it's really kind of cheap stuff slower ship going to what i would call value-oriented and consumers, you know, in your data, what, what kind of customer are, is buying this and then how fast do you think they are really growing? Michael: [9:22] Yeah, let me answer the second one first. Timmy's growing very quickly. Like you said, from late 2022 onwards, our data is showing double digit month to month growth, which is just explosive, right as it became a household name. In the first three months, for context, it had roughly as many weekly active users in the US as the largest fast fashion brand, Shein, and within 10 months had surpassed Shein in sales. And it had taken Shein years to get to that point. So really, a much shorter timeline. For an idea of size, about 18% of US households have shopped at TeamView since its launch. And in terms of GMV, in February, we saw about 1% of Amazon's US GMV. If you look at that, if you just break that out over the whole year, I believe in 2023, their net sales were something like over $500 billion. You're looking at around $50 billion in gross merchandise value moving through the service. But nevertheless, it's kind of not made really meaningful inroads with the largest online brands. I mean, it's still 1% in a good month. And that's actually decelerated since 2023. In fact, February of 2023 had fewer sales than January, despite the really heavy advertising spend you mentioned. [10:47] So yeah, there's some signs that the growth is kind of changing there. Mainly that retention is increasing even while this like... [11:01] New customer acquisition-based sales growth model is slowing down. TeamU's average customer lifetime value tracks higher than Walmart. And we're seeing customers becoming much more loyal. So that's an interesting kind of plus for them while sales in total are kind of hitting a lull. But yeah, let's talk about who those customers are too. It's definitely been one of the more interesting finds from our data. Despite the really low price points and that kind of gamified discount system, TeamView's US customer base skews middle to high income, actually. Sales among customers earning that over $190K, which is obviously very high up there, they're the fastest growing income bracket. And that's from May to January, May of 23 to January 24. So those sales to customers earning under $55K, like less than the median U.S. household income, that's actually the slowest growing. So today, about 44% of TeamU sales come from earners making over $130K. Not only do high-income earners account for the largest share, they're outgrowing. We just think that TeamU resonates mostly with customers with more disposable income. income, people who can afford to take a gamble on an item that might not work out. [12:27] You buy a floor mat for $5, it doesn't work. A middle high income person might just say, hey, it was $5 wasted, but the poor people don't always look at that. They're looking for a little bit more bang for their buck, can't afford that type of gamble. Yeah, it's interesting. Scot: [12:46] Cool and then you've you know you mentioned that they're you know basically their ltv is going up do you have any insight into why are they getting better at like maybe predictive analytics or recommendation engine or you know they see jason bought some gadget and then they they know he's now a gadget geek and they kind of start targeting do you have any insight into what's driving that that bump in LTV? Michael: [13:09] That's a good question. So I don't really have much insight into that. I try not to get out over my skis in terms of the data that I have available to me. We're looking at retention. We're looking for what's called a smile. Dan McCarthy talks about it all the time, which is over time as a company starts to bring back more customers that stopped stopped spending with them. And that's been pretty rare to see in e-commerce history. That's something they've managed to do. How they're doing that, I'm not totally sure. So it's definitely going to be the key for them to continue growing as new customer growth slows down, though. Scot: [13:52] Yeah. Jason, do you know? Jason: [13:54] Yeah. Well, so I don't know. I just want to point out that while Michael is wisely trying to not get over his skis, I live over my skis. So I'll tumble down the ski slope once again. One of the things I maybe should have said up front or maybe apparent to a lot of people is T-Moves marketing spend isn't just that Super Bowl ad. They're spending a fortune on digital ads and almost certainly losing a lot of money on every sale. So there's a Wall Street Journal article that came out this week that said that Temu or PDD overall spent over $2 billion with Facebook and was Facebook's largest advertiser. They're also Google's largest advertiser in the U.S. And so they're buying a lot of customers. And the the Wall Street Journal estimates that they're losing $6 on every sale. They're spending so much on customer acquisition. And so in that first year, they're doing a ton of marketing. There's a ton of people that never heard of Temu. They're acquiring those customers. They're getting that first order. [14:54] And, you know, a mini version of this is what Wish did until they ran out of money. But though it doesn't seem like there was a lot of evidence that Wish ever got traction, right? Like they didn't get those repeat orders. And what I think we're seeing And what I've seen in some of the data that Michael shared with us is that Temu very much is growing that LTV, getting repeat orders, even as the flood of digital marketing they're spending is sort of losing some efficacy as the law of large numbers kick in. And then I would also say Pinduoduo in China and now Temu in the U.S. Is very well known for their gamification. So they have lots of clever gamification mechanics on their websites, group buying, contests, gifts, one-time deals that are all like very carefully crafted to entice you to make an incremental purchase and to make an unplanned purchase. So I think all of those things appear to be working and then they hit you on social media with, you know, a huge spend, you know, right when you're, you're doom scrolling and expressing some, some purchase intent through your clicks. Scot: [16:08] Very cool. How about you, Michael, you mentioned this, this, this slowdown, which is exactly opposite of what I would have thought given the Superbowl ads. What do you, does the data show you anything there? Is it? Normal or like what what's going on. Michael: [16:23] Yeah i mean i don't know i don't know what would be normal for this company that's still up hundreds of percent a year but when i'm looking at at month over month growth which is the kind of the best way i can think to to look at it it is pretty remarkable there was some sort of a step change in august of last year where it went from growing double double digits each month to growing just single digits or down. The holidays, December actually was smaller than November in terms of their sales. And January was smaller still, makes sense. But February, also very challenged in terms of sales. I'm wondering if they're in a sort of spiral in terms of the new customer's first time kind of buying frenzy is over, or if this is a shift towards very purposely trying to get people in the door and they're just actually tapping brakes a bit on advertising spending. I'm not totally sure what this signals just yet. Scot: [17:35] Got it. Okay. Jason: [17:36] Is it safe to say that there's no clear evidence that spending $30 million million dollars on the Super Bowl had a super observable impact on their sales. Michael: [17:46] Okay. Yeah. So the Super Bowl. Let's talk about that. The million dollar question or $30 million question, I guess. The answer is probably not. There are a lot of ways to measure advertising effectiveness, as you guys know better than most. Brand awareness and net promoter score. But yeah, for a young company like this facing slowing new customer growth, I'd imagine they're looking to move the needle with each of these like big marketing events and the data just suggests that their multiple ads on February 11th had no meaningful boost in sales actually TeamU saw a noticeable deceleration in sales growth following the event actually kind of, like sales were significantly slower in the next few days. So unless they're measuring this on a much longer timeline, I don't think this investment was worth it. I think they would be better just plowing dollars into digital, wherever that is. Jason: [18:42] Yeah, it's super interesting. You know, obviously for listeners that don't know, my salary gets paid by those Super Bowl ads. I work for a big ad agency for which I'm very grateful. But the lot of controversy around our water cooler the day after the show. That was a spin that you rarely see. And in one metric, it clearly had an impact. There was a lot more discussion about Temu than any other company on social media the day after the Super Bowl. So the Super Bowl ads triggered awareness and conversation. I think they were the second behind Verizon, which had Beyonce, right? And so there was a lot of talk on social media. It was not all positive. There was a lot of discussion on social media, but people that hated the team who had the first time they saw it because it was sort of by Super Bowl standards, not a very high production animated ad. I think they made it in-house and they, you know, ran it with much greater repetition than audiences are used to. So it generated a lot of conversation that didn't necessarily translate to sales, at least that we can measure in the short term. And so that that's going to be interesting long term case study about what what these kind of, you know, splashy big reach audiences can and can't can't do. Right. Michael: [20:00] You know, I don't, again, skis and getting over them. It just seems like the outcome for them at this point should be a little further down the funnel. And I don't see how advertising spend like that will marginally get someone, persuade someone to buy a team you that wasn't already going to. It seems, yeah, it was a lot and there was no really movement in our data, either in new signups or in sales. I think there's some other research out that downloads are trending downwards or slowing down as well. We don't have that data, but I was reading elsewhere. So I think, Scott, this is maybe more to your 2024 prediction that people are realizing this is wish and slowing. and becoming less enamored or falling out of it. Jason: [20:52] No, no, no, no. Scott's predictions cannot be right. Scot: [20:55] Wait, if I hear that, you're pre-anointing that I'm right. Is that you're here in March, you're saying I was right with my prediction. Man, I'm good. Michael: [21:04] I didn't want to pick a side here, but I think people might be falling out of love with it, although it's not because it's not wish, it's because they're out wishing wish. We can talk to it a little bit. But I think people just realize Teamio is managing to disrupt Wish. And we can talk to the brands that it's disrupting. That's just one of many. It's got higher retention, bigger scale than Wish. But it does have the same limits as Wish and that this deep discount model doesn't have the big household brands that people want when they're making those everyday purchases that are slightly bigger, like the Tides and Cloroxes or the recognizable alternatives. There are just some things you don't want to replace and you don't want to gamble on. I don't think anyone wants to spend a dollar on detergent and see what happens. It's just going to be tough for them to scale at some point. I think the question we should be asking is if they've reached that point yet. I'm not sure. The sales growth slowing suggests they could have. But in the meantime, they are actually taking a wrecking ball to several other brands. So just because total sales is slowing doesn't mean the disruptive effect is slowing. Scot: [22:22] Yeah, let's go, Jason. Jason: [22:51] Because Temu is buying so many ads and driving the price on all those auctions up. So don't know if it's moving the needle on consumer impact or not, but it for sure is having an impact on their competitors, at least in that regard. Michael: [23:04] So you're saying maybe their goal is to just suck all the oxygen out of the room? Jason: [23:08] I'm saying that's potentially an unintended positive benefit. Mm-hmm. Scot: [23:15] Yeah, and you've teed us up there. Who is, is it retailers or is it more brands? Who's getting impacted by this? And kind of embedded in this question is, do you have an idea of the categories? Like if we looked at that pie of the 50 billion GMV, is it largely electronics? Is it apparel? Like what are the big wedges inside of there? Michael: [23:35] Yeah, well, so the great part about transaction data, it's really good at looking at brand disruption, or I should say retail disruption by brand. Not great at looking at the categories. You know, I don't see what an individual breakout of a credit card receipt is. I'm just seeing where people are spending. So I think that's the question I'm more equipped to answer. In terms of impact, some of the folks you think of when you think of mass market and discount retailers like Five Below and Walmart, the ones that you immediately want to ask if they're being disrupted, they seem like they'd have the most overlap. They've been pretty untouched, actually. Part of its overlap, only 19% of Walmart and Amazon's customers have even tried TeamU. And that's about the same as the total percent of US households that have tried it. substantially the whole country has made a purchase at Walmart and Amazon. So they're just not as at risk, maybe on the margins. But what we're seeing, I guess, next step up with some risk is the dollar stores. Dollar General, they share about a quarter of their customers with TeamU. And if you look at Dollar General's customers spending at TeamU, it's up over 800% year to year from January 23 to 24. Obviously, a super small base and flat. at Dollar General itself. [24:54] And then those TeamU customers who aren't, or those Dollar General customers who aren't TeamU customers, they're spending slightly up at Dollar General. It suggests that there's some impact. Again, not the biggest that we've seen. So I'd say like dollar stores kind of marginally. [25:10] This is not as supported by data, but just putting the data point together that the TeamU customers are spending less and TeamU customers are richer, you could come to the conclusion that Dollar General role is losing out on richer customers looking for deals a little bit. Maybe they're popping in for something they really don't want to spend a lot of money on, like a party, something like that. That's where the sales that they're losing is. Which actually kind of takes us to the last and biggest impact. Wish and AliExpress, as well as all those hobby lobby party supplies, like Oriental Trading. So I'll start with Wish. Their customers are just fleeing. I think there's no better way to say it. 50% less spend on Wish in January 2024 than January 2023, and over 680% increase at TeamU. That's just astounding. The Wish customer, once they try I, TeamU, they're done. It's game over. It's similar for AliExpress. And I think that what TeamU has really done early on, we need to think of them less as like an Amazon killer, and more as a brand that just came in to consolidate the existing demand for this deep discount online spending that these two, AliExpress and Wish kind of got off the ground in the US. [26:35] In terms of the hobby space, Oriental Trading, Hobby Lobby, Party City, they all experienced double-digit declines year-on-year in February among the customers who also shopped at TMU. And these brands, they're catering to occasional and discount merchandise. I think they're really going to struggle adapting to TMU. It's like I said, the person who doesn't mind throwing away $5, $10, $15 on party supplies if they don't work out. But it's a one-time thing anyway. way you know it's it's things that they're somewhat disposable items to these customers and very interchangeable got. Scot: [27:12] It i noticed you didn't mention amazon on that list is there is it there been an amazon impact or has it been. Michael: [27:18] That's great good catch pretty negligible just just like walmart they're just brands on those platforms at this point that you can't find at at these places i think when i say on the margins that's what i mean there could be hey, I need this small thing for my kitchen that I could get for $1 or get for $3. And that might be the sale they lose out on, but they're doing a better job of being one-stop shops. And I think with what we've seen, it doesn't seem like the business model is set to take on Amazon yet. Scot: [27:57] Got it. Yeah. Jason: [28:00] You know, a couple of things that come to mind. A, I think the dollar store thing is super interesting because historically dollar stores haven't sold very much online. Like, and, and, you know, usually their excuse is that, that super low price point discounted items don't work online. Right. And I, I think like in some ways I look at Temu and I say, they're actually the digital dollar store that did figure it out. Now. [28:25] It remains to be seen whether they can make money doing it in the long run. But it doesn't surprise me that those are some of the categories that are being disproportionately impacted. And I think you really hit something interesting on some of these everyday essential retailers that sell the brands that consumers are looking for and trust. [28:46] That, to me, feels like a different shopping occasion than the shopping occasion I think Timo is winning. Branding there's this whole new trend on all the social media platforms called dupes and you know people think of like knockoffs and forgeries where you you try to pretend you're a brand that you're not but dupes is a something different dupes is this is a very similar product to a name brand product but it it overtly is not the name brand product and it's a way better value and they're now these big cohorts of consumers that talk about their dupes and brag about their dupe finds and, you know, proudly make these, these dupe decisions. And it feels like those are the kind of things where, where Teemu's playing really well, where, you know, you're into, you know, crafting and you've, you know, there's some expensive machine, a cricket machine for cutting vinyl. And you say, oh man, I found a dupe on Teemu for 20 bucks, right? Like those Those feel like the kinds of occasions they're winning when you're willing to trade down for that no-name product and take a gamble versus when you know you want the Tide dishwasher soap. Michael: [29:58] I think that's a great point. They're taking advantage of the trading down phenomenon in general right now that a lot of brands are seeing, a lot of retailers are seeing. This is the perfect spot. I'll just go ahead and see if Temu has it. Maybe they will, maybe they won't. Scot: [30:15] Cool. One topic, and this is kind of a jump ball for you guys, is the, you know, I read a lot about this shipping model, and this was always Wish's kind of secret sauce is there's this, there's this like loophole in the postal code where if you send this something small, you know, it doesn't have any tariffs, number one. And then number two, there's like this really cheap postal rate, or I can't remember if China subsidizes it or it's free or we subsidize it, but there's some, there's kind of like double loopholes. There's a tariff one and a shipping one. And I've seen some noise lately about people wanting to kind of shut this down. Do you guys, either of you more expert on that than I am and have an opinion on if it's going to be sustainable or not? Jason: [30:57] I could certainly jump in there. So what you're talking about is there's this thing called the Global Postal Treaty. And it's a prearranged agreement between like 95 countries, 94 countries for how they'll deliver each other's mail. When you try to ship a letter from the U.S. to Germany, the U.S. Post Office is going to hand it to the German Post, and they need to know in advance how much the German Post is going to charge the U.S. Post Office to deliver that so that the U.S. Post Office can charge a rate in advance to you to deliver those things. So this global postal treaty is super valuable, and it makes it possible to cost effectively and, you know, with predictable rates, mail stuff all across the world. [31:41] Unfortunately, there's a couple of problems with it. There was the developed nations agreed that for less economically developed nations, they would have a preferred rate. So they would charge even less to deliver. The U.S. post office would charge less to deliver mail from a developing economy than they would from an established economy. And until recently, China was characterized as a developing economy, which is probably not accurate. And then the Postal Treaty specifies a dollar limit that it only is in effect for packages under a certain value. And so this is called the de minimis clause of the Postal Treaty. In the United States, the threshold is $800. So when Temu ships something to a consumer in the U.S. that costs under $800, they get a predetermined rate from the U.S. Post office, which is often cheaper than the rate to mail something from one part of the U.S. to the other. And Scott, per your point, there is no tariffs charged on that item and there is no import inspection on that item. So, you know, normally when we, you know, if a U.S. Retailer imports a container of goods from China, there's all kinds of inspections to make sure that the factory in China met labor standards and, you know, met environmental standards, and then they pay tariffs on all that. [33:08] The team who hands one package to the U.S. post office, they they get to bypass all that, which, you know, is, of course, controversial. No one wants to get rid of the Global Postal Treaty or even de minimis. But what they're saying is that the U.S.'s 800 hour threshold is probably way too high. Like China's threshold for reciprocation is something like forty dollars or something. So you could you could put a big dent in Temu if you just lowered the the threshold. And so there's There's, you know, noise in Congress about trying to change that limit. I would say that, you know, it is an unfair advantage in many ways, and U.S. Companies are certainly right to complain about that. [33:51] I would say that Temu is different than Wish. Wish took advantage of this cause. Temu takes advantage of it way more effectively, right? So Wish sold, you know, was a marketplace, and they had a factory sell something to an American consumer. And then it was up to the factory to get it to the American consumer. So the factory had to have their own postal account. And then they, you know, had to trigger this postal treaty. And there was no shipping confirmation. And often Wish products took a very long time to ship and a very long time to arrive. As part of this next-gen manufacturing model that Temu has, they do all that for the seller. And it uses Temu's postal account. And they expedite all of these things. Most of these goods get air freighted to the U.S. and put into the U.S. postal system. So while Wish items would have averaged three or four weeks delivery time. [34:46] Temu normally averages like five to seven days, and they almost always outperform their shipping promises. And in fact, they even have a guarantee. They give you $5 back if the package arrives late. So, you know, part of the reason that I don't think they're just purely Wish 2.0 is they actually do have a better, more reliable shipping experience than Wish. And they actually more effectively take advantage of this postal loophole than Wish ever did. Scot: [35:18] Yeah. And Wish took the proceeds of their IPO and built out some fulfillment centers. And they almost did their own version of that Amazon dragon boat or whatever that was called. Has T-Mood signaled they're going to do something like that where they have, you know, even more? Jason: [35:32] Yeah, they already have in some. So they're in 49 countries now. So they do have D.C. fulfillment centers in some of those countries. They've actually talked about opening a fulfillment center in Mexico for delivering goods in the western U.S. And so so they are talking about that. But then this other big thing is starting this week that a U.S. Seller could list their goods that, you know, the goods are already in a warehouse in the U.S. that US seller could list their goods on Temu and then deliver those goods from a US fulfillment center. So that's a potential way to get much faster delivery times for Temu. And we've already seen some badging. Temu has items with a rapid ship badge that are guaranteed for two-day delivery. So it does seem like Temu recognizes that over time, their fulfillment model is going to have to be more nuanced than just the the individual parcels uh coming one at a time but but you know that still seems like the the sort of biggest foundation of how they're delivering all these goods got. Michael: [36:36] It um the minimus though i can't imagine that much they would change would really have an impact we're seeing average ticket prices at 38 last month for for timmy like are they thinking thinking of reducing it by that much or. Jason: [36:52] So, I mean, a just talking about way over our skis, like my, my political acumen is very poor, but yeah, I don't think Congress is gonna do anything. I think like at most they'll have a, a hearing and try to look like tough guys talking about how unfair it is and how they're gonna try to protect the American businessman and the American consumer. And then when push comes to shove, they won't, they won't do anything, which is my, my cynical nature. But you're right. Right. Nobody's talking about dropping the de minimis low enough to to, you know, really trigger the bulk of these these Temu shipments. So it's it's more likely if they made a change, it would be a gesture, not like, you know, some some game changing thing. Now, you know, there's another big Chinese company out there, ByteDance, which is TikTok. And like there there is a bill going through Congress right now to ban TikTok. And so, you know, if something like that were to happen with, with a PDD or Temu, you know, that, that would of course, you know, be a, a big threat of a disruption. Scot: [37:54] Yep. And then on that example you gave, Jason, of a U.S. seller in a fulfillment center, is that Temu's fulfillment center or the seller's fulfillment center? Jason: [38:04] The seller's fulfillment center. So potentially what would be one of the ironies of this is, of course, as Amazon has expanded their fulfillment services, you could be an Amazon seller, be using FBA, and sell something on Temu and have Amazon fulfill it for you. Scot: [38:20] Yeah, Wish did something like this. What we found was the U.S. Seller struggled to get things in the price point that consumer wanted, right? It's like it's such this low quality stuff that almost has to be offshore for even to the manufacturer. Jason: [38:36] Yeah, I think you are 100 percent right there. I don't think they're going to like we don't know what the uptake is going to be on these U.S. Sellers. It's an interesting talking point, but it doesn't seem like there's going to be a bunch of U.S. Sellers that are going to likely participate in this like low price dupes demand that they have today. Now, what would be interesting, Pinduoduo, I mentioned, which is a huge, huge entity in China. Pinduoduo started with this same stuff. They started with really inexpensive marketplace goods. And as Pinduoduo got bigger and more established and won the hearts and minds of Chinese consumers, they moved up market. They started selling brand name stuff. They started selling higher quality stuff. And today they're a hybrid seller. PennDuoDuo in China sells their own goods in addition to marketplace items, which I've never seen before. Usually it always goes the other way. And so there's at least a premise that like maybe the U.S. sellers don't like add to the current assortment, but maybe the U.S. Sellers help Temu round out their assortment with some higher price point, you know, more recognizable goods for the U.S. consumer that helps them win more wallet share. Scot: [39:49] Interesting. Cool. We're running up against time. Do you guys have any other topics you want to hit before we call it a show? Michael: [39:58] No, I think it's fair. You know, I already mentioned one of your predictions. I should talk about the other one. Just to pick on Jason for a second. I don't think we'll make it to the 75% of target USC comm this year for Temu, Jason. Sorry. It's like a stretch. Scot: [40:17] Man. How do we get Michael on the show more? Like, I'm really enjoying this. This was a really good guess. Jason: [40:24] I feel like you're calling the winner of the Super Bowl in the first quarter, man. Come on. Michael: [40:27] Okay, well, I'll just put it this way. At 18% of the US households, three months into the year, it seems unlikely at their current growth that they get there. My view basically though, writing this, is that they've done a great job in the first year of attracting folks with a lot of disposable income to buy things that they likely wouldn't have bought anywhere else, like party supplies, household goods. It's maybe a different model than they they have in China. The challenge for them now, you guys both definitely identified this, that it's basically to convince people to switch everyday spending from Amazon and Walmart on those bigger items. And they don't have the assortment right now for that. And that's what you're mentioning. They need to either move up market or figure out what that assortment looks like. But that's going to be a bigger hurdle. They're reaching critical mass. They just have some decisions to make internally at this point. Jason: [41:17] Yeah. Well, in general, I feel like that is going to be a great place to leave it for this show because we have run out of our allotted time. But Michael, we really appreciated your insight. We'll certainly have you back. I know your view of the U.S. economy is useful for a whole bunch of topics that come up frequently on the show. But as always, if listeners enjoyed this episode, I hope you will jump on iTunes and leave us that five-star review. Scot: [41:46] Thanks, Michael. And this has been really good for Jason's ego. So I feel like you've knocked him down a couple of pegs. I appreciate that. And then if folks want to read more about your writing or connect with you, is LinkedIn the best place or are you more active on TikTok? Where can people find you? Yeah. Michael: [42:04] Michael Maloof on LinkedIn. I'm always posting a lot of Ernest data on there. And then also on our company blog, ErnestAnalytics.com. Go to the Insights blog and subscribe. Jason: [42:17] Yep. And I will put links to both the team new articles you guys published and your LinkedIn in the show notes. Michael: [42:23] Thank you. Jason: [42:24] Until next time, happy commercing!

Third season launch! A new and improved TAC Right Now returns with a breakdown of the Super Tuesday primary results. Host Bradley Devlin walks Helen, Jude, and Sumantra through the exit polls, the surprises, and the presidential rematch ahead. Picks of the week: Helen: "DoxyPEP Is a Disaster in Waiting," Theodore Dalrymple Jude: "McConnell, Man of His Era," W. James Antle III Sumantra: "Ursula von der Leyen's Second Term," Adriel Kasonta Bradley: "Sunset for Mitch McConnell—and Joe Biden?" Dan McCarthy

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