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Recently, the United States Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 50 basis points, citing signs of economic slowdown and lowering inflation rates. This decision, although overseas, is heavily connected to New Zealand as almost all state economies are tied to the United States. Following this decision, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may choose to follow in the same footsteps. This decision may reduce or slow the current recession, which New Zealand is already in the midst of, worse than the two-thousand and eight financial crisis. However, the odds of igniting consumer price may also increase leading to asset inflation additionally increasing. Sasha spoke to professor of Business and Economics Robert MacCulloch from the University of Auckland about a deeply complicated issue, which affects all New Zealanders.
Recently, the United States Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 50 basis points, citing signs of economic slowdown and lowering inflation rates. This decision, although overseas, is heavily connected to New Zealand as almost all state economies are tied to the United States. Following this decision, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may choose to follow in the same footsteps. This decision may reduce or slow the current recession, which New Zealand is already in the midst of, worse than the two-thousand and eight financial crisis. However, the odds of igniting consumer price may also increase leading to asset inflation additionally increasing. Sasha spoke to professor of Business and Economics Robert MacCulloch from the University of Auckland about a deeply complicated issue, which affects all New Zealanders.
In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by IIF's Andrés Portilla, Managing Director of Regulatory Affairs and Richard Gray, Director of Prudential Policy, to revisit the topic of Basel III implementation. The podcast covers how the United States Federal Reserve may look to repropose implementing Basel III, what metrics are being suggested in the reproposal process, the shifting implementation timeline, thinking of how other jurisdictions may monitor the Federal Reserve's process, the impact of the 2024 U.S. Presidential elections on impending steps and more. For more information on Basel III, tune in to Episode 55: "Can We Make a Discussion about Basel Capital Accords Interesting?" where Clay, Andrés and Richard analyze the Basel III Endgame.
This week's KVMR News Magazine brings you coverage of an alleged stolen vehicle chase in Grass Valley along State Route 174 and into Placer county. And what does it mean that the United States Federal Reserve follows a data-driven policy? Well, unless you're a Fed-head, you may need former Fed Economist Gary Zimmerman to help spell things out. Gary discusses this question and more with KVMR's Paul Emery. Nevada County Climate Action Now member, Shirley Freriks brings us a commentary surrounding the questions: Is zero waste possible? And Molly Fisk tackles two difficult subjects in her weekly essay.
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This audio is brought to you by Wearcheck, your condition monitoring specialist. The convergence in platinum and palladium prices is likely to go further. Fundamentals point more positively for platinum into 2025 on a better autocatalyst demand trend. This will be so even as global internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle production declines, Deutsche Bank Research metals & mining analysts note in a commodities outlook published on January 10. Within the platinum group metals (PGMs) market, the supply and demand trends favour platinum over palladium, the analysts state. Since November, it has been the view of the Deutsche Bank Research team that PGMs would remain under the shadow of a United States recession and a consumer perception of poor vehicle buying conditions for the early part of the year. This continues to be the case, with the forecast for a United States recession for the first half of the year suggesting that PGM prices will remain under pressure for at least the first quarter. A weaker performance in palladium versus platinum is consistent with the autocatalyst industry's substitution process underway between 2023 and 2025, which is seen as unlikely to reverse course. History would suggest, the analysts state, that the PGMs are likely to see scope for recovery, on account of a United States Federal Reserve pivot and easier credit conditions, which would improve vehicle buying conditions. Testing the S&P 500 over the course of previous recessions, the trough tends is found to be somewhat after the halfway point. From spot levels, the research team's revised quarter-four forecasts of $1 350/oz in both platinum and palladium imply a 38% gain in palladium and a 44% gain in platinum. PGM basket costs are the closest to producer cash costs since 2018, stress that has been evident most recently through Anglo American Platinum's reduction in production guidance for 2024 and 2025. Anglo Platinum's 300 000 oz of lower PGM guidance in 2024 is a result of lower own-mine production, while the 300 000 oz of lower PGM guidance in 2025 is a result of lower purchase of concentrate. Based on Anglo Platinum's historical ratios over 2020 and 2022, this would imply a greater reduction in platinum output than palladium (134 000 oz vs 95 000 oz) in each year. However, the possibility that the third party concentrate not purchased by Anglo Platinum finds its way to another refiner means that for the industry as a whole, the 2024 production cut is more certain. On autocatalyst demand drivers, global ICE production, including nonplugin hybrids, is poised to decline by -3.1% in 2024 and by -3.7% in 2025, owing to the gradual adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Through 2025, its assumptions are consistent with the shallower BEV adoption curve indicated by Deutsche's global autos team in December, but significantly less optimistic between 2025 and 2030. Even with this less optimistic projection for BEV adoption, global ICE sales are set to decline more rapidly after 2025, accelerating to an annualised -5.1% between 2025 and 2030. Only partially offsetting this is the tendency for manufacturers to use higher loadings to meet more stringent emissions standards, which amounts to a trend growth of 1.9% since 2006. The tightening trend in emissions regulation is not set to relax any time soon. These drivers suggest, the analysts state, that palladium autocatalyst demand may fall by -270 000 oz to -300 000 oz in 2024 and 2025, and platinum autocatalyst demand by only -40 000 oz and -60 000 oz in 2024 and 2025, with substitution effects plausibly translating into a rise in platinum autocatalyst demand. The upshot is that while 2024 supply-demand may still be close to balanced, a view incorporating 2025 would point to further deterioration in palladium balance relative to platinum, suggesting a potential for platinum to trade at a premium to palladium in 2025. SUPPLY DECLINE In a 25-page review for Auctus Metal Portfolios of Singapore, ...
The House Financial Services Committee has been investigating the possibility of the Federal Reserve creating a Central Bank Digital Currency. In this episode, hear experts unpack the nuances and implications of this idea during three hearings, and discover how you can play a part in shaping the future of American currency. Please Support Congressional Dish – Quick Links Contribute monthly or a lump sum via Support Congressional Dish via (donations per episode) Send Zelle payments to: Donation@congressionaldish.com Send Venmo payments to: @Jennifer-Briney Send Cash App payments to: $CongressionalDish or Donation@congressionaldish.com Use your bank's online bill pay function to mail contributions to: Please make checks payable to Congressional Dish Thank you for supporting truly independent media! Background Sources Recommended Congressional Dish Episodes Operation Choke Point Frank Keating. November 7, 2018. The Hill. House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform Staff. May 29, 2014. U.S. House of Representatives. Digital Asset Glass-Steagall James Rickards. August 27, 2012. U.S. News & World Report. Audio Sources September 14, 2023 Committee on Financial Services, Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology and Inclusion Witnesses: Yuval Rooz, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Digital Asset Paige Paridon, Senior Vice President and Senior Associate General Counsel, Bank Policy Institute Christina Parajon Skinner, Assistant Professor, The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania Dr. Norbert Michel, Vice President and Director, Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives, Cato Institute Raúl Carrillo, Academic Fellow, Lecturer in Law, Columbia Law School Clips 27:35 Rep. French Hill (R-AK): Look, the Constitution is clear. Only Congress has the authority to coin money and regulate the value of such money. And we've heard the same from Fed officials, right before this committee, and most recently from Vice Chair for Supervision, Michael Barr, who last week told an audience in Philadelphia and I quote, "The Federal Reserve would only proceed with the issuance of a CBDC with clear support from the executive branch and authorizing legislation from Congress." The Biden Department of Justice agrees, saying, quote, "there would be substantial legal risks to issuing a CBDC without such legislation." 32:05 Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA): CBDC is just one type of publicly issued digital dollar and would be issued, backed, and regulated by the Federal Reserve and have the full faith and backing of the US government. This could serve as an alternative to existing forms of payments and have a benefit, including instant payment settlement, provide a medium for cross border transactions, and foster greater financial inclusion. More than 130 countries have begun to explore their own government backed digital currencies. China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and India have already commenced pilot programs, and a digital Euro pilot could be launched as early as 2028. Meanwhile, the US remains far behind amid increasing and blatant information about features of digital currency. While concerns about data privacy and government surveillance are real, especially in countries that do not respect human rights and privacy, a CBDC does not have to be designed that way. We could employ an architecture that would protect personal data while including anti-money laundering and terrorist financing features. 33:15 Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA): It is counterintuitive that my colleagues should be raising concerns about data privacy while thousands of private companies, domestic and foreign, are surveilling, aggregating, and selling consumer data each and every day. 33:45 Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA): I'm announcing and inviting my colleagues to join the Congressional Digital Dollar Caucus. This forum will educate members on critical issues relating to the development, design, and potential implementation of a government issued digital dollar. I plan to invite innovators, technologists, academics, and other experts to share their findings and development. I hope my colleagues will join me in this exploration. 34:15 Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA): The use of anonymous cash has plummeted and more of our transactions are occurring online and under surveillance, tracked and aggregated by financial services companies. Indeed China has turned that fact into a tool of full spectrum surveillance of its citizens. This is why I've introduced the Ecash Act. This bill directs the Treasury to design and pilot a digital version of cash and would complement the Fed-issued CBDC. It would allow individuals to make instant peer to peer payments with no consumer data or transaction tracking and without the use of a bank account. 36:10 Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN): The need to protect Americans' right to financial product privacy is at an all time high. That's why I introduced the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act with over 50 of my colleagues. This bill prevents unelected bureaucrats from creating a tool for financial surveillance if not open, permissionless, and private, like cash, a CBDC is nothing more than a CCP-style surveillance tool that will oppress the American way of life and we're not going to allow that to happen. 38:20 Dr. Norbert Michel: In my testimony, I argue that the United States should not launch a Central Bank Digital Currency, a CBDC. Advocates for a CBDC tout many potential benefits, but there's nothing unique about the technology that would provide those supposed benefits. 39:00 Dr. Norbert Michel: A CBDC in any form would be a direct liability of the central government, a digital tether to its citizens such that it would radically alter the existing public-private relationship that already exists in our monetary arrangement. 39:25 Dr. Norbert Michel: First, issuing a CBDC would not help preserve the status of the United States dollar, it would likely damage it. Proponents argue that because China has launched a CBDC, the United States must keep up by launching its own. Others make the narrower claim that the US must launch a CBDC to keep up with broader technological changes in the payment sector. But anyone who chooses to do so can transact digitally in U.S. dollars right now. The CBDC does not take us from a world with zero or a few digital transactions to one filled with digital transactions. Moreover, the dollar's renowned status is owed to the strength of the American economy and its legal protections for private citizens relative to many other countries. Unlike in many other places, Americans do not have to live in constant fear that the government will take their money. However, if the US creates a CBDC, anyone who wants to use the dollar would lose a layer of protection from that type of government abuse. 40:30 Dr. Norbert Michel: The second myth is that a CBDC would expand financial inclusion by providing a new source of financial services for America's unbanked and underbanked populations. Again, though, this is not a technological problem. In other words, the CBDC itself does not accomplish this goal. The private sector already enables us to transact digitally, and it has been steadily shrinking the number of Americans without financial services for years. We also know, because the FDIC asked them, that unbanked and underbanked Americans primarily are in that situation because either they don't have enough money to have an account, or they don't want to give their personal information to a bank or the government. And what should be obvious is that a lack of sufficient income is a much broader economic problem than a CBDC or financial service technology. While some proponents argue that a CBDC lowers the cost of providing financial services, that's true only if the government subsidizes those costs or chooses to waive the same level of regulatory scrutiny it requires of private firms. And that level of scrutiny, it turns out is more than just a costly mandate that the government has placed on private firms. It's also the one that causes those unbanked Americans to say they don't trust banks. It's also the same one that requires people to hand over their personal information to private companies, and as a result potentially to the government. If the government removes that mandate for all financial service providers, there would be no cost advantage to a CBDC. 42:05 Dr. Norbert Michel: That brings me to my last myth, the idea that a CBDC could somehow enhance financial privacy. Currently, Americans are forced to hand over personal information to financial institutions. Those institutions are required to track transactions, and the government can access that information without a warrant. The fourth amendment is supposed to protect Americans from the government gaining access to this kind of information, unless they show probable cause and obtain a warrant. But it no longer protects Americans when it comes to financial information. And the only buffer left is that the government must go through the financial institution to obtain that information. Introducing a CBDC would remove this last layer of protection. It would place all financial transactions either in a government database or leave them a keystroke away. 44:15 Paige Paridon: We believe that at this point there is little evidence that a CBDC would bring measurable benefits to the US economy or consumers. Furthermore, a CBDC could upend the commercial banking system and create financial instability. 44:30 Paige Paridon: CBDC can take one of two general forms: a wholesale CBDC, which would be used only by financial intermediaries, and a retail CBDC, which could be used by consumers and businesses. To date, most research and attention has been focused on a retail, intermediated, account-based model in which consumer's CBDCs would be held in an account at a bank or another financial intermediary, like an asset held in custody. The CBDC could not be used by the bank to make loans in the way that dollar deposits are used today. Any transfer of $1 deposit from a bank to a CBDC is $1 unavailable for lending to businesses or consumers. By attracting deposits away from banks, a CBDC likely would undermine the commercial banking system in the United States and severely constrict the availability and increase the cost of credit to the economy. 46:30 Paige Paridon: With respect to financial inclusion, a review of the reasons why certain individuals are unbanked makes it clear that a CBDC would be unlikely to meaningfully increase financial inclusion. For example, FDIC data reveals that many respondents are unbanked because of privacy concerns, and intermediated CBDC is unlikely to mitigate those concerns, given that it would presumably come with the same know-your-customer requirements that currently apply to banks. 54:35 Christina Parajon Skinner: So privacy rights are the clearest place to start. Today, individuals can enjoy comprehensive privacy in their payments transactions by using cash. Now, although most central banks have suggested that CBDC is not going to replace cash, that near-term promise can't be guaranteed over the longer term, and the insinuation that CBDC is necessary or inevitable seems motivated by a view that cash will eventually become obsolete. But because central banks don't have the technology presently to offer cash-like privacy, a digital currency -- unless it's radically redesigned -- will bring with it the ability for the state to monitor or surveil its citizens' payments activity. 55:20 Christina Parajon Skinner: I'd like to focus on the impact of a CBDC on the Federal Reserve. Certainly since 2010, the power and authority of the Fed has grown considerably, and Congress's responsibility to oversee the Fed requires it to understand how a CBDC could further empower the central bank but also how it might weaken it. On the one hand, CBDC could result in a larger central bank balance sheet. Issuing CBDC would increase the liability side of the Fed's balance sheet if the total of bank reserves, repos, and cash balances largely remained unchanged. So if the liabilities with CBDC increase, so too much the Fed's assets. The Fed could buy more Treasury securities to match CBDC, but that could possibly invite pressure on the Fed to issue more CBDCs to in turn absorb more government debt. And overall, that dynamic could further erode the limited fiscal discipline that we have remaining. A CBDC could also affect the Fed's independence in the way that it would establish a direct relationship between the central bank and the real economy for the first time in history. One result of that relationship would almost certainly be the further erosion of the line between monetary and fiscal policy. When central banks begin to issue liabilities directly to the people, it will become much more difficult for the central bank to justify their provision of liquidity to banks and the financial system, as opposed to households, especially during a crisis. And effectively this could open the door to political pressure on the Fed to provide liquidity assistance to households during turbulent economic times. But these sorts of household level interventions would radically transform the central bank and its purpose and role within society. 57:40 Christina Parajon Skinner: So it does not inherently improve financial inclusion unless it's paired with accounts for all citizens, which the central bank itself has already recognized as infeasible. 59:15 Raúl Carrillo: Today, I support the call for a digital dollar system, including CBDC, Fed accounts, and Ecash. 1:02:15 Raúl Carrillo: Indeed, the only way to evolve beyond the surveillance status quo is to establish a direct digital dollar interface with consumers where the Fourth Amendment and other protections may actually apply. If we truly care about privacy, we should treat the banking and blockchain industries' appeals to partnership as suspect, based on legal and technological grounds alone. We can build a retail CBDC and Fed account system with superior protections compared to what exists now and superior protections to the systems that are being built around the world currently. 1:02:50 Raúl Carrillo: So today I also advocate for the inclusion of digital cash, as detailed in the Electronic Cash and Hardware Security and Secured Hardware Act, the Ecash Act, re-introduced by Representative Lynch. Today, Ecash devices available on a smart card or a phone card would serve as digital counterparts to cold hard American cash. These devices would not make payments over the internet. Instead, they would store Treasury issued digital dollars on card hardware to enable everyday small dollar transactions for everyday people. These transactions would be subject to the BSA/AML regime, and as a boon to law enforcement, we can set privacy-sensitive security controls and caps on transactions and usage. However, the cards would in no instance be capable of generating data that companies and agencies can abuse. We preserve a place for privacy within public infrastructure. The Ecash Act harkens back to the past to the days when President Lincoln established the banking and cash system that we still use today. And it also harkens to an exciting, inclusive, safe digital future. 1:08:05 Paige Paridon: CBDC, because it would be a direct liability of the central bank, it would be perceived as the ultimate safe asset. So from that perspective, particularly during times of economic stress, it could attract depositors to pull their money out of the banking system to flee or run to a CBDC if there was perceived concern about the banking system or the financial system overall. So every dollar that currently resides in a bank account can be deployed for useful purposes in the economy, primarily through lending. Every dollar that is pulled out from the banking system and put into a CBDC is one less dollar that could be put to good economic use. And that is why we have a fundamental concern with a retail CBDC, given the flight-to-quality risks. 1:09:35 Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA): 130 countries, representing 98% of the global economy, are now exploring digital versions of their currencies, including the United States. Almost half of these countries are in advanced development pilot or launch stages of their CBDCs. Can you discuss how CBDCs may shape the future global financial landscape? What would it mean for the United States if we instead chose to stay on the sidelines of this race? Raúl Carrillo: Thank you very much for the question, Representative Waters. My opinion is that it is incumbent upon the United States to provide leadership with respect to an inevitable process that is going to occur across the world. It is clear that we're all moving to digital fiat currency. The question is what sort of protections are going to attend digital fiat currency? 1:12:35 Raúl Carrillo: I hear a lot of concern across the political spectrum in this committee about the power of Silicon Valley. And if you do not create an alternative to the corporate systems that collect data, or promise to protect it and then collect it en mass, which is even worse and common in the blockchain industry, then what is going to happen is that Silicon Valley is going to win. And frankly, I don't think anybody here wants that. But in order to preserve the space that we have for public money and not make it a big tech enterprise, we, in fact, have to move forward with digital fiat currency. 1:13:50 Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH): One of the key characteristics of sound money is that it facilitates permissionless, peer-to-peer transactions like cash. Currently, of the 100+ countries developing a central bank digital currency, none of them are developing a permissionless system. Every one of them is developing a permission system, including the United States Federal Reserve. So when we talk about permissions, we can kind of get something from the Federal Reserve's own report of that. They said in their report that it should be privacy-protected, intermediated, widely transferable, and identity-verified. Mr. Michel, Professor Skinner, in your view, is it possible to be both privacy-protected and identity-verified? Dr. Norbert Michel: No, in my view, it's not. Once the information is in a system, it's in a system and somebody is going to get it and it's going to get out. And I just quickly really want to say I'm very happy to hear everybody here on the panel is pro-Fourth Amendment. The problem, of course, as you know, is that the Bank Secrecy Act, and the anti money laundering regime runs right over the Fourth Amendment. So that's what needs to be fixed. Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH): It's already a problem in third party hands, but this wouldn't even be in third party hands. But, you know, Professor Skinner, what's your view? Christina Parajon Skinner: My view is no, that that's not possible right now, and central banks have essentially admitted as much. And to the extent such technology is or could be under development, it's extremely immature. And I think the point to emphasize here is that inherently there will be a tradeoff to the extent central banks create CBDC, between identity verification and privacy. And more than likely central banks will always choose identity verification because they will never feel comfortable sacrificing the national security goals that they see as accompanying robust identity verification. 1:24:35 Rep. John Rose (R-TN): Decisions in United States v. Miller and Maryland v. Smith gave us the third party doctrine. Under that doctrine. if you voluntarily provide information to a third party, the Fourth Amendment does not preclude the government from accessing it without a warrant. Dr. Michelle, can you explain how the third party doctrine has impacted Americans' financial privacy? Dr. Norbert Michel: Yes, they practically have none at the moment partly because of this. But I also want to clarify, because of something that was just said on the panel. The Fourth Amendment is the one that amends the Constitution to the United States, which protects American citizens from the government. So this is exactly the issue and it was brought up in the cases in the 70s, when the Bank Secrecy Act was challenged. If the Bank Secrecy Act were not there, the banks and financial institutions that we have would not be required by the government to collect the data that they are, that is a requirement in the Bank Secrecy Act. And everybody can go back and look at those cases, that was always an issue as to whether this was constitutional and in violation of possibly the Fourth Amendment. So between the combination of the Bank Secrecy Act, the Fourth Amendment issues, and the third party doctrine, Americans, although many of them don't realize it, have very little financial privacy at the moment. 1:26:05 Rep. John Rose (R-TN): How would the adoption of a CBDC further erode Americans' reasonable expectation of financial privacy? Dr. Norbert Michel: I believe it would remove the last layer that we have, quite simply, instead of having to go through the financial institution, the government would have that information either in a central database or a keystroke away. 1:31:05 Raúl Carrillo: We envision hardware devices. So those can be cards, similar in size to an existing debit or credit card, or they can be secured SIM cards, or something like it, on a phone that would enable hardware based transactions and for people to make payments as they do today with paper cash for everyday things without fear of government or corporate surveillance, which occurs in tandem when we use digital payments today. 1:32:20 Raúl Carrillo: I would clarify that the point of Ecash is that it does not operate online. It is actually open, permissionless, and private, in the sense that you don't need a blockchain or a banking intermediary. 1:35:45 Rep. Bryan Steil (R-WI): In your testimony you wrote, "any transfer of $1 deposit from a commercial bank or credit union to a CBDC is $1 unavailable for lending to businesses or consumers." Can you expand a little bit on that statement about how an adoption of an intermediated CBDC would impact credit availability and the cost of banking services? Paige Paridon: Sure. Happy to, thank you. So I think there's a misconception generally, that $1 transferred from a deposit account to a CBDC would mean that CBDC would still be able to be used for lending and investment in the economy the way that dollar deposits currently are now. And that is not the case of CBDC, even if intermediated. In other words, even if the services including onboarding and other services that commercial banks currently provide, even if those services were provided by banks with respect to a consumer's CBDC, the fact is the bank would really only hold that CBDC in the same manner it holds an asset in custody. So it would have to essentially keep that CBDC under the proverbial mattress and it would not be able to be redeployed in the form of loans. 1:41:20 Paige Paridon: If it was an intermediated CBDC, banks would essentially hold CBDC as a custodian. That's right, they wouldn't be able to lend out some portion of the CBDC as they do deposits. 1:42:10 Rep. Sean Casten (D-IL): If you had 100%, CBDCs was all the money supply, you'd have no lending, right? So doesn't any proportional increase in the amount of a CBDC in an economy shrink the economy? Paige Paridon: Well, there could be shifts to other forms of ways to fund lending. Banks could borrow in the wholesale markets, they could potentially borrow from the Federal Reserve. So I'm not necessarily sure it's a one-to-one relationship. 1:46:25 Rep. Mike Flood (R-NE): Ms. Skinner, in your testimony, you mentioned how a CBDC could lead to the Federal Reserve's independence being threatened. Can you speak more on that? Christina Parajon Skinner: Yes, certainly. Thank you for the question. So in the first instance, to the extent the Federal Reserve doesn't change the composition of its balance sheet otherwise, issuing a CBDC will increase its liabilities, which means that it has to match that increase in liabilities by purchasing more assets. So the first thing that we would think about when the Fed would purchase more assets would be buying more Treasury securities. That being said, with the potential for the Fed to issue more CBDC, thereby giving it more headroom to buy more Treasury securities, would be likely to put some pressure on the Fed at some point down the line from the Treasury to issue that CBDC to absorb more government debt, which we call monetary finance or monetizing the deficit. Before World War Two, the Fed essentially operated under the thumb of the Treasury so that during wartime and otherwise, the Fed could effectively monetize the deficit. And really today, that's anathema to an independent central bank. There were other things that the Fed could also be pressured to buy to match an increase in CBDC, like corporate bonds. Now our recent experimentation in corporate bonds has put some question around whether this too could politicize a central bank because inevitably if central banks buy corporate bonds, they are picking winners and losers in the economy. Now, the Fed has been pretty neutral in its approach, but there has been a lot of pressure on the central bank to, for example, buy green bonds in order to facilitate a transition to a low carbon economy and certainly other central banks do actively green their corporate bond portfolios. 2:23:05 Dr. Norbert Michel: I believe this is a question of centralization versus decentralization. And if you have a CBDC, you ultimately have one major point of failure. One way of doing this would be to have the Fed have a database. Well, we know the Fed's been hacked. Even if the Fed has multiple databases, it's the Fed being hacked, as opposed to having multiple private companies all across the country. If Capital One, for example, has a hack or a cybersecurity problem, everybody in the country is not immediately at risk, only their customers, and that's a problem for them. 2:25:25 Rep. William Timmons (R-SC): Based on your research, can you explain what, if any, technological advantage a CBDC has over the private sector? Dr. Norbert Michel: None. And this should be this is properly viewed as a government reaction to a private innovation. We can call it Bitcoin or you could just call it distributed ledger technology in general. That's what this is about. This is about the government seeing an innovation that possibly threatens their control over the payment system and it is a movement to come up with something that takes that back and it just so happens that what they're coming up with here is something that goes even further than where we are without the CBDC. 2:26:45 Christina Parajon Skinner: The status of the dollar is undergirded by our commitment to the rule of law, democratic institutions, having a judiciary that enforces property rights, and perhaps most importantly, maintaining the dollar as a stable store of value. So for there, it's important that the Fed maintain its fight against inflation and with the issuance of the CBDC, there will absolutely be a propensity to over-issue, to for example, monetize the deficit and if that were to happen that would undermine the status of the dollar. 2:29:45 Paige Paridon: A so-called flight to quality is something that we fear would be almost inevitable. Were a retail CBDC to be issued by the Federal Reserve, in times particularly of financial stress or instability, a CBDC would be viewed likely as the ultimate safe asset and depositors would likely be incentivized to pull the deposits out of the banking system and put them into CBDCs as a safe asset, which would reduce the availability of deposits available to lend out, and moreover, increase the cost of credit. 2:31:10 Raúl Carrillo: President Lincoln created cash after the Civil War in order to help everybody have day to day transactions throughout our economy. Today we have cutting edge technology in various other sectors in the government, including in the US military where they use stored value cards known as Eagle Cash in order to make offline payments. 2:33:15 Yuval Rooz: If the US government were to decide to issue a retail CBDC, unlike wholesaled CBDC, I think that it is going to be critical for the government to show an evidence that there is no ability for the government to see transactions of citizens. I personally would be against such an act. 2:35:05 Yuval Rooz: If we wanted to have privacy included in the smart contract of the money, it would state that any movement of money would only be visible to the sender of money and the receiver of money for example, and the issuer of money would be blinded. So all that the issuer would see is the overall balance, but would not see any underlying movements of the money, for example. March 8, 2023 House Financial Services Committee Witnesses: Jerome Powell, Chair, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Clips 53:50 Rep. French Hill (R-AK): Turning to a topic that's been a subject here for nearly four years: Central Bank Digital Currencies. Article One of the Constitution, reserves coins and money issuance to the Congress and we've in turn delegated that to the US Treasury, which has since 1912 engaged the Federal Reserve as their fiscal agent. You've testified here many times before that to issue a Central Bank Digital Currency that would be have to be authorized by statute by Congress. Is that still your testimony? Jerome Powell: So that is absolutely the case as it relates to a retail CBDC. There are potential forms of a wholesale CBDC that you would need to look at, it's less clear. But we've always been talking about retail CBDC and that's something we would certainly need Congressional approval for. Rep. French Hill (R-AK): What would be a parameter on something that's not a retail CBDC where you think that could be issued in some form or fashion without Congress's direct statutory authorization? Jerome Powell: It would be, for example, something between banks, so it would look an awful lot like a bank reserve. And you might ask, Well, why would we need it? And that's a really good question, too. But just something that's literally within a wholesale market. Rep. French Hill (R-AK): But that speaks that you might have a blockchain between banks and the Fed using a Central Bank Digital Currency token to settle transactions institutionally inside the US. 1:15:40 Jerome Powell: We did go out for comment in general on a CBDC a year or so ago and I do expect that we'll go out, I can't give you a date, but we'll certainly go out and we engage with the public on an ongoing basis. We're also doing research on policy and also on technology. That's what we're up to. Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA): The Boston Fed has a partnership over there with the folks from MIT Media Lab, they're doing a great job, but it says here that the discussions would include technical experimentation. I was just wondering, at what level are you talking about making decisions on architecture for a retail CBDC? Jerome Powell: We're not at the stage of making any real decisions. What we're doing is experimenting, in kind of early stage experimentation. How would this work? Does it work? What's the best technology? What's the most efficient? We're really at an early stage but we're making progress on sort of technological issues. The policy issues are equally important though. You know, we haven't decided that this is something that the financial systems in the country want or need. So that's going to be very important. 1:18:15 Jerome Powell: A CBDC is going to be years in evaluation. 1:18:30 Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA): You know, before the greenback, everybody had their own currency. You know, you had rail rail companies, you had coal companies, you had, you know, state banks that were authorized to issue their own currency. But when the greenback came out, all of those various currencies went to zero, because the greenback had the full faith and credit of the United States behind it. I'm worried about a lot of these Stablecoins and other cryptocurrencies. Do they go to zero when we come up with a CBDC that has the full faith and credit of the United States behind it? We've got 1000s of these out there, and you've got people investing millions and millions of dollars, well trillions right now. And I'm just thinking if we had those advantages built into a CBDC? Wouldn't those alternatives go to zero, if they did not have the transparency and the full faith and credit that we enjoy? Jerome Powell: So certainly, unbacked cryptocurrencies that don't have any intrinsic value, but nonetheless, trade for a positive number, I've never understood the valuation of those. Stablecoins, many of them are really drawing on the credibility of the dollar. They're dollar denominated mainly, dollar-based reserves, although we don't know what's in the reserves because there's no regulation. 2:16:05 Jerome Powell: What we say about permissionless blockchains is that they have been vehicles for fraud -- Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH): 0.24% if you follow your own report on fraud. It's a fraction of what it is with the US dollar. May 26, 2022 House Financial Services Committee Witness: Lael Brainard, Vice Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Clips 2:08:30 Rep. John Rose (R-TN): Vice Chair Brainard, we saw how dangerous it can be when the government weaponizes the financial system for political purposes under the Obama administration's Operation Choke Point. More recently, the Canadian government instructed banks to freeze accounts linked to the trucker protests over vaccine mandates. Vice Chair Brainard, without appropriate safeguards, would a CBDC make it easier for the federal government to block individuals it disagrees with from accessing the financial system? Lael Brainard: So I really don't see CBDC as raising questions that are different from deposits and bank accounts, for instance. And the paper that was released in January, in particular, talks about an intermediary model, akin to what we see with commercial bank deposits, where the central bank doesn't have any direct interaction with consumers, doesn't see transactions by consumers, but there are intermediaries and, very importantly, including banks that would be responsible for both identity verification and for keeping that transaction data private. So in that sense, I don't see it it's as really any different than the issues that are raised with commercial bank deposits. June 16, 2021 Committee on Financial Services, Subcommittee on National Security, International Development, and Monetary Policy Witnesses: Eric B. Lorber, Senior Director, Foundation for Defense of Democracies Clips 43:33 Eric Lorber: The number of transactions which are elicit that use Bitcoin or blockchain technology is actually fairly low percentage wise it's in I believe, below 1% or somewhere around there. So it's fairly small. Music by Editing Production Assistance
While the Fed navigates a soft landing for the U.S. economy and stock valuations remain high, how can investors navigate the risks and rewards of a surprisingly strong equity market? Lisa Shalett is Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's Chief Investment Officer. She is not a member of Morgan Stanley Research.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts in the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Fixed Income Strategist at Morgan Stanley. Lisa Shalett: And I'm Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, we'll be discussing what's been happening year to date in markets and what might lie ahead. It's Friday, August 11th at 1 p.m. in London. Lisa Shalett: And it's 8am here in New York City. Andrew Sheets: So, Lisa, it's great to have you here. I think it's safe to say that as a strategy group, we at Morgan Stanley have been cautious on this year. But I also think this is a pretty remarkable year. As you look back at your experience with investing, can you kind of help put 2023 in context of just how unusual and maybe surprising this year has been? Lisa Shalett: You know, I think one of the the key attributes of 2023 is, quite frankly, not only the extraordinarily low odds that history would put on the United States Federal Reserve being able to, quote unquote, thread the needle and deliver what appears to be an economic soft landing where the vast and most rapid increase in rates alongside quantitative tightening has exacted essentially no toll on the unemployment rate in the United States or, quite frankly, average economic vigor. United States GDP in the second quarter of this year looked to accelerate from the first quarter and came in at a real rate of 2.4%, which most folks would probably describe as average to slightly above average in terms of the long run real growth of the US economy over the last decade. So, you know, in many ways this was such a low odds event just from the jump. I think the second thing that has been perplexing is for folks that are deeply steeped in, kind of, traditional analytic frameworks and long run correlative and predictive variables, the degree to which the number of models have failed is, quite frankly, the most profound in my career. So we've seen some real differences between how the S&P 500 has been valued, the multiple expansion that we have seen and things like real rates, real rates have traditionally pushed overall valuation multiples down. And that has not been the case. And, you know, I think markets always do, quote unquote climb the wall of worry. But I think as we, you know, get some distance from this period, I think we're also going to understand the unique backdrop against which this cycle is playing out and, you know, perhaps gaining a little bit more of an understanding around how did the crisis and the economic shocks of COVID change the labor markets perhaps permanently. How did the degree to which stimulus came into the system create a sequencing, if you will, between the manufacturing side of the economy and the services side of the economy that has created what we might call rolling slowdowns or rolling recessions, that when mathematically summed together obscure some of those trends and absorb them and kind of create a flat, flattish, or soft landing as we've experienced. Andrew Sheets: How are you thinking about the valuation picture in the market right now? And then I kind of want to get your thoughts about how you think valuations should determine strategy going forward. Lisa Shalett: So this is a fantastic question because, you know, very often I'm sitting in front of clients who are, you know, very anxious about the next quarter, the next year. And while I think you and I can agree that there certainly are these anomalous periods where valuations do appear to be disconnecting from both interest rates and even earnings trends, they don't tend to be persistent states. And so when we look at current valuations just in the United States, if you said you're looking at a market that is trading at 20x earnings the implication is that the earnings yield or your earnings return from that investment is estimated at roughly 5%. In a world where fixed income instruments and credit instruments are delivering that plus at historic volatilities that are potentially half or even a third of what equities are, you can kind of make the argument that on a sharp ratio basis, stocks don't look great. Now, that's not all stocks. Clearly, all stocks are not selling at 20x forward multiples. But the point is we do have to think about valuation because in the long run, it does matter. Andrew Sheets: I guess looking ahead, as you think about the more highly valued parts of the market, where do you think that thinking might most likely apply, as in the current valuation, even if it looks expensive, might be more defendable? And where would you be most concerned? Lisa Shalett: I think we have to, you know, take a step back and think about where some of the richest valuations are sitting. And they're sitting in, you know, some of the megacap consumer tech companies that have really dominated the cycle over the last, you know, 14, 15 years. So we have to think about a couple of things. The first is we have to think about, you know, the law of large numbers and how hard it is, as companies get bigger and bigger, for them to sustain the growth rates that they have. There will never be companies as dominant as, you know, certain banks. There will never be companies that are as dominant as the industrials. There will never be companies that are as dominant as health care. I mean, there's always this view that winners who achieve this kind of incumbent status are incumbent forever. And yet history radically dispels that notion, right? I think the second thing that we need to understand is very often when you get these type of valuations on megacap companies, they become, you know, the increased subject of government and regulatory scrutiny, not only for their market power and their dominance, but quite frankly for things around their pricing power, etc. The last thing that I would say is that, you know, what's unique about some of the megacap consumer tech companies today that I don't hear anyone talking about, is this idea that increasingly they're bumping up against each other. It's one thing when, you know, you are an e-commerce innovator who is rolling up retail against smaller, fragmented operators. It's quite another when it's, you know, three companies own the cloud, seven companies own streaming. And I don't hear anyone really talking about it head on. It's as if these markets grow inexorably and there's, you know, room for everyone to gain share. And I push back on some of those notions.Andrew Sheets: So, Lisa, I'd like to ask you in closing about what we think investors should do going forward. And to start, within one's equity portfolio, where do you currently see the better risk reward? Lisa Shalett: So we're looking at where are the areas where earnings have the potential to surprise on the upside, and where perhaps the multiples are a little bit more forgiving. So where are we finding some of that? Number one, we're finding it in energy right now. I think while there's been a lot of high fiving and enthusiasm around the degree to which headline inflation has been tamed, I think that if you, you know, kind of look underneath the surface, dynamics for supply and demand in the energy complex are beginning to stabilize and may in fact be showing some strength, especially if the global economy is stronger in 2024. A second area is in some of the large cap financials. I think that some of the large cap financials are underestimated for not only their diversity, but their ability to actually have some leverage if in fact global growth is somewhat stronger. We also think that there may be opportunities in things like residential REITs. There's been, you know, concern about that area, but we also know that the supply demand dynamics in US housing are in fact quite different this cycle. And last but certainly not least, I think that there are a series of themes around fiscal spending, around infrastructure, around decarbonization, around some of the the reconfiguration of supply chains that involves some of the less glamorous parts of the market, like utilities, like, you know, some of the industrials companies that have some very interesting potential growth attributes to them that that may not be fully priced as well. Andrew Sheets: Lisa, thanks for taking the time to talk. Lisa Shalett: Absolutely, Andrew. Always a pleasure. Andrew Sheets: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on Apple Podcasts. It helps more people find the show.
Indian benchmark indices — Sensex and Nifty 50 — are set to open marginally higher on July 27 after the US Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25 basis points as expected and reiterated its data-dependent approach to further policy tightening. India's GIFT Nifty on the NSE International Exchange was up 0.10 percent at 20,004 as of 8:12 am. Asian markets are holding up in the green despite the flat close on Wall Street in the overnight session. The United States Federal Reserve has hiked rates by 25 basis points and unexpectedly, it has kept the door open for future rate hikes as well. The next one will likely be in September. Meanwhile, back home in the Indian market, after three days of consolidation, yesterdayNifty 50 went very close to the 19,800 mark. There was some activity on the front line aided by stocks like Reliance Industries, L&T, ITC, and Tata Motors. The third cue is that the July expiry is today which the market participants will closely watch. Today's session is likely going to be all about individual stocks. Axis Bank's bottom line looked ahead of what the Street was anticipating, but the core operating profit came in lower than projections and worse compared to other peers like ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank. Dr. Reddys reported a pretty decent set of numbers, so the stock is likely to witness a stock reaction. Tech Mahindra was a big miss with revenue falling by more than 4 percent on a quarter on quarter basis, EBIT margin down to 6.8 percent, which is the lowest amongst the peers. Colgate saw a good set of numbers with an all round beat. Market watchers must also keep an eye out on RBL Bank because Mahindra and Mahindra says it has acquired a 3.53 percent stake in the company and is open to acquiring more but under no circumstances will it cross 9.9 percent. Tune in to Marketbuzz Podcast for more cues ahead of today's trading session
The boss of SVB has criticised the Federal Reserve, saying the Fed's messaging on interest rates and inflation being transitory sent out wrong ideas. We ask Gary Dugan of Dalma Capital, what he makes of this. Plus, Corporate tax registration is open - we find out how to do it properly with tax expert Shiv Mahalingham. And, 80% recruiters say they prefer hiring people with a gaming background. Abdulrahman Al Hazimi, Partner Manager at YouTube, who carried out the survey joined us to explain the results. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
We discuss how the Federal Reserve is responsible in controlling the economic outcome for the U.S. The mechanics of Inflation and interest rate adjustments and how this affects the economy. Is the banking collapse of recent days a coordinated ploy by the United States Federal Reserve to slow down the economy in order to regulate inflationary pressures? Also, how is China's positioning in the global economy impacting their decisions to launch their own CBDC and is the anti-China narrative proliferating in media intended to lead the U.S. into a future conflict with China? Also, how will technology and innovation fix the impending problems a financial system collapse, and A.I. and automation poses to the economy of the future. Will humanity escape to the metaverse to find its new purpose. Topics: First up, we dive into the history of bank collapses and why it happened in the past and why it might be happening right now. Next, Iman and I question if the US government will lose it's title as the world's most powerful country. Then, we examine how technology represents society throughout each generation and acknowledge that ego pauses progress Finally, we discuss why Iman and I continue to search the next big thing, will it be the metaverse? Please like and subscribe on your favorite podcasting app! Website: www.theblockrunner.com Follow us on: Youtube: https://bit.ly/TBlkRnnrYouTube Twitter: bit.ly/TBR-Twitter Telegram: bit.ly/TBR-Telegram Discord: bit.ly/TBR-Discord LBRY: http://bit.ly/LBRYTBR Music by OfDream - Thelema
The Federal Reserve's just-announced rate hike of 25 BPS puts more strain on an economy under increasing pressure, and commercial real estate markets are among the many areas of the economy that are vulnerable to these rising rates. At the same time, the the growing chasm between expensive mortgage payments and more-affordable rental prices will continue to bolster multifamily demand and drive would-be homebuyers into the rental market. Sources discussed in this episode: Federal Reserve Bank of the United States: “Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement” - https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230322a.htm Federal Reserve Bank of the United States: "Summary of Economic Projections" - https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20230322.pdf RealPage: “The Best and Worst Performing Submarkets Since the Pandemic” - https://www.realpage.com/analytics/the-best-and-worst-performing-submarkets-since-the-pandemic/ Realtor.com: “Looking for a Deal? Too Bad. Rents Are Rising the Fastest in the Cheapest Real Estate Markets” - https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/rents-are-rising-the-fastest-in-the-cheapest-real-estate-markets/ Institutional Property Advisors: “Multifamily Population Trends” - https://www.institutionalpropertyadvisors.com/research/special-report/2023/03/special-report-march-multifamily-population-trends For the latest multifamily news from across the internet, visit the Gray Report website: https://www.grayreport.com/ Sign up for our free multifamily newsletter here: https://www.graycapitalllc.com/newsletter DISCLAIMERS: This video does not constitute professional financial advice and is for educational/entertainment purposes only. This video is not an offer to invest.
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Sebastian Martorana is an artist living and working in Baltimore, Maryland. For over fifteen years, Sebastian has focused on the art of carving. Much of the material used for his sculptures was salvaged from Baltimore's historic, though often discarded, architecture. He received his BFA in illustration from Syracuse University, after which he became a full-time apprentice in a stone shop outside Washington, DC. He earned his MFA at the Maryland Institute College of Art's Rinehart School of Sculpture.Sebastian works on private commissions and commercial projects from his studio in the Hilgartner Natural Stone Company. His body work includes projects for the United States Senate, St. Patrick's Cathedral in New York City, the National Basilica in Baltimore, the Eisenhower Memorial in Washington, DC and the United States Federal Reserve. He is an adjunct faculty member at the Maryland Institute College of Art and a repeat presenter for the American Craft Council. Sebastian's work is included in the permanent collections of museums including the Smithsonian American Art museum's Renwick Gallery, which acquired his sculpture featured in their 40 under 40: Craft Futures exhibition.The Truth In This ArtThe Truth In This Art is a podcast interview series supporting vibrancy and development of Baltimore & beyond's arts and culture.Mentioned in this episode:Sebastian MartoranaTo find more amazing stories from the artist and entrepreneurial scenes in & around Baltimore, check out my episode directory.Stay in TouchNewsletter sign-upSupport my podcastShareable link to episode ★ Support this podcast ★
CPI Report The market rallied this morning on news inflation was not as bad as feared. The headline CPI number for October came in at 7.7% compared to last year, which was lower than the estimate of 7.9% and below last month's reading of 8.2%. Back in June the CPI hit 9.1%. I believe some investors believe this number could help lead to a Fed pivot, but I'm still not optimistic given their stance of being strong to fight inflation. With that being said, I believe they should slow down and let these rate hikes and Quantitative Tightening work through the economy. One major factor that I find interesting in the report is that rising shelter costs contributed more than half the monthly gain as it increased 0.8% compared to last month and was up 6.9% compared to last year. This was the highest annual increase since 1982, but one thing to take into consideration is that rising shelter costs don't necessarily have a large impact on the entire population. In fact, with more than 65% of the population owning their home, the monthly expense is much more fixed and shouldn't be subject to the current inflation we are seeing. I hope the Fed takes that into consideration as the report needs to be analyzed in its entirety. Job Market I continue to believe that the feared recession will be mild. I have talked about how the strong job market has continued but one other aspect that is continuing is a lot of liquidity in the economy through what is known as the M2. M2 is a measure of the amount of money that includes currency, deposits, and shares in retail money market mutual funds. Like the job market this is holding strong at just under $22 trillion. Compare that to about three years ago when it was well under $16 trillion. So not only do consumers have a job to provide cash flow but savings accounts are flush with cash to continue to consume. CBDC's (Central Bank Digital Currency) I have talked in the past about CBDC's which are known as Central Bank Digital Currency and said that countries are moving in that direction. No surprise that governments move slowly, but as of today more than 100 countries and monetary authorities which include the European Central Bank, and the United States Federal Reserve are looking into how to digitize their currencies. But the direction they are going is not what you would think. They are not turning to the popular cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum for advice, they are turning to the big tech companies like Microsoft, Alphabet and even Amazon. The reason they are turning to these big tech companies is because of their development of digital wallets and smart phone apps. I still say if the world goes in this direction of Central Bank Digital Currencies the use of crypto currencies would be worthless. Cryptocurrency Balance Sheets Balance sheets matter! I did a post on these crypto exchanges a few months ago questioning the assets for many of these crypto exchanges and now we are seeing the repercussions for weak balance sheets and overleverage as FTX announced solvency issues. FTX and its CEO Sam Bankman-Fried were seen as leaders in the crypto space and now it is collapsing. Bitcoin fell to under $17,000 this morning and many other cryptos are faring even worse. As a reminder, Bitcoin's all time high was close to $70,000. There is nothing in the world of crypto at this point in time that entices me, and this only adds to my concerns for the "investment" category.
The Creature from Jeykll Island is the United States Federal Reserve, created in a planning session amongst the United States' top financial representatives on Jekyll Island, Georgia. The title comes from G. Edward Griffin's "The Creature from Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve" and a similarly-themed Tuttle Twins book, "The Creature from Jekyll Island."In this session, Brian Balfour will examine a history of the U.S. Federal Reserve, its directives in maintaining employment and cofntrolling inflation, and the unintended and often very negative consequences of monetary policy and the role of central banks. Brian Balfour is Senior Vice President of Research for the John Locke Foundation, where he oversees the organization's research and analysis on a variety of issues. He previously worked for the Civitas Institute for 13 years, and has a master's degree in economics from Wayne State University in Detroit, MI.This lecture was delivered live at the Fall Classical Summit, a regional classical conference held at Thales Academy Apex Junior High-High School on October 7, 2022.
"How can you short the U.S. Dollar in this currency and economical environment today? We will have the Bank of Canada's decision as they are talking about 50 BPS to 75 BPS interest rate hike. What will the ECB do? The United States Federal Reserve has to be the most aggressive internationally. This brings about the long-term bullish move in the Dollar price. I don't have a position in any currency except being short the Euro, which will likely go lower," says Bob Iaccino.
In this episode, we take a look at all of the events that took place since March 2020 that led to today's bear market. What kind of impact did the United States Federal Reserve have on the global financial markets? And did the Fed's decisions cause the biggest bubble of all time?
The US Federal Reserve has just announced it's hiking its core interest rate by 75 basis points and it won't stop there, with further increases expected. This figure has been speculated for days, leaving the global markets in tumoil while investors waited for the decision. The United States Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell says it's crucial inflation is brought under control. He says the Fed is likely to push the key rate up to 3.4 percent by year end. Financial Times journalist Alexandra Scaggs spoke to Susie Ferguson from New York.
The United States Federal Reserve has just delivered its biggest rate hike in more than 20 years. The central bank has raised its short-term rate by 75 basis point, to a range of 1.5 to 1.75%.
We caught up with Gordon Liao, Head of Research for Uniswap Labs, to talk about his transition from traditional finance to the nascent ecosystem of decentralized finance (DeFi). Most recently, Gordon worked as a senior economist for the United States Federal Reserve and co-authored a report on stablecoins that was published in January 2022.00:00 - Introduction01:15 - Gordon's career trajectory and how he was first introduced to cryptocurrency03:30 - Can you have blockchains without tokens?05:45 - Problems Gordon noticed while working for the Fed 07:35 - Will traditional finance use open-source infrastructure? 10:00 - Why Gordon left the Fed to work in decentralized finance14:30 - Can KYC apply to DeFi?17:15 - Where do policymakers get hung-up when it comes to crypto regulation? 18:30 - Gordon's view on stablecoins23:40 - Why should governments lean into stablecoins? 25:00 - Gordon's role at Uniswap Labs29:00 - Long-term vision for the DeFi industry 31:15 - What needs to happen for traditional finance and decentralized finance to coexist33:40 - What excites Gordon the most about the industry
Members Of The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria will head into their meeting Monday and Tuesday knowing that for the first time in a long while Nigeria's April inflation number served them à la carte ahead of their gathering. Inflation is the new kid on the block. It is the talk of the town across many serious capital cities, across many central banks, not least the United States Federal Reserve, the United Kingdom's Bank of England, the European Central Bank (ECB); and since inflation began to show signs that it would go rogue on the world, every serious central banker has been digging in, especially those who truly take their inflation targeting mandate and price stability remit seriously.
There is one entity that controls the pricing of nearly every asset in the world--the United States Federal Reserve. While the entity may not be completely federal, and it might not hold much in reserve, the Fed is the foundation for how we determine interest rates and the price of our assets. We aren't experts on the topic, but it's an important subject to be informed of!Do you have any questions you'd like for us to answer on the show, or a success story you'd like to share? Shoot us an email to info@TheRealFI.com and we'd be happy to connect with you. And If you haven't done so already, please leave us a glowing 5 start review on your podcasting platform–it would really help us out!You can connect with you hosts on instagram:James on Instagram: @James_RippeonPatrick on Instagram: @RentalPropertyCouple Let's kick the 9 to 5!
The United States Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time since 2018, as it tries to cool inflation, which is running at the highest level in 40 years. The Chair of the central bank, Jerome Powell, said the implications of the Russian invasion were "highly uncertain", pointing to the risk of disruption to supply chains. Also today, we look at details of the French government's plan to ease the economic impact of the war in Ukraine.
The Federal Reserve has broken our American economy and I sit down with Chris Leonard to discuss his new book that details how our monetary system ended up here teetering on ruin. Chris is a New York Times best selling author and his new book The Lords of Easy Money: How the Federal Reserve Broke the American Economy is a "fascinating and propulsive story about the Federal Reserve" and how quantitative easing and political posturing have put America's monetary system in peril. I talked to Chris about how the United States Federal Reserve has printed an astronomical amount of money under FED Chairs Ben S. Bernanke, Janet Yellen, and Jerome Powell. We dig into why the Federal Reserve was originally created and how the institution has changed over the years to become, as meme lords would put it, the folks who make the "money printer go brrr". Chris offers his insights into why a crash is all but imminent for the American economy and what role inflation plays in accelerating this in 2022. See more
English for Economists | English Lessons for Economics and Finance
Well, it has been all over the news this past month. From Brazil to Russia to the United Kingdom, central banks all over the world are raising their interest rates, and analysts expect that the United States Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to begin raising their rates later this year. Learn some useful vocabulary to discuss this global trend. Our highlighted vocabulary in this lesson includes Soaring Inflation Surging prices Tightening monetary policy Economic rebound Hawkish stance Dove Upward shift
The disconnect between Americans and elected officials continues, as the United States Federal Reserve is taking steps to digitize the American dollar. America is changing very quickly. Are you ready? Footage is now available that shows buses with illegal aliens being dropped off around the U.S. The director-general of the World Health Organization has tweeted support for musician Neil Young as the Joe Rogan vs. Spotify debacle continues. Parents, did you know a teachers' union president is calling you “racist” for attending school board meetings? And a New York City actress was fired after posting a video rant about the inconvenience of road closures in Manhattan as the police department was honoring slain officer Jason Rivera. Amie Wohrer rejoins the program and discusses social media and President Joe Biden's Pittsburgh infrastructure speech. Today's Sponsors: Annie's Kit Clubs makes it easy to give your kids fun and interactive projects to keep their minds working and their hands off devices. And their newest club, Genius Box is a great way to encourage their curiosity and introduce them to different STEM fields. Go to http://annieskitclubs.com/chad and save 50% of your first box! All KEEPS treatment plans are delivered straight to your door—at about half the cost of a traditional pharmacy. Your plan comes with a full year of unlimited messaging so you can connect with your doctor about anything -- anytime. With KEEPS, you get quality, expert care without visiting a doctor's office or pharmacy. To get 50% off your first order go to http://KEEPS.com/LOSS. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Fidelity's Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, starts off today's show touching upon equities, the United States Federal Reserve, and emerging markets. Jurrien remarked that there is always a concern about corrections in bull markets and notes that the market is now up 110% from its bottom in March 2020. He also notes that he is seeing strong earnings especially with the S&P 500 profit margin which is now at an all-time high of 14%, which he believes demonstrates a much faster recovery than anticipated. In terms of the United States Federal Reserve tapering, Jurrien shares that the bond market tapering is starting this month, but the market is not reflecting an expectation of a neutral policy, which he expects may lead us into a period similar to the 1940s with the Fed accepting higher structural inflation as collateral for a healthy economy. When asked about his response to fears of a market crash if the Fed stops being so accommodative, Jurrien indicates that market internals are improving quite a bit, and instead of fretting about slight downturns, he said to remember that even though markets go down 40% of the time, we still see compounded annual growth at 11%, and that's where he believes staying invested carries a prize. Lastly, Jurrien believes that we are not going to see outperformance in emerging markets (EM) or Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) without a relative earnings story to back it up, also noting that these regions are now showing negative earnings momentum. Recorded on November 8, 2021.
Fidelity's Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer, speaks about central banks, global growth, and wages with respect to job vacancy and unemployment rates in his global macro view episode. With regards to central banks across the globe and their policy responses, Jurrien shares that the responses of central banks he is seeing are different due to the different mandates the banks have. An example he emphasized was the European Central Bank choosing to focus on price stability whereas the United States Federal Reserve chose to have a dual mandate of full employment and price stability. Jurrien also noted that, in his opinion, the Bank of Japan is acting differently compared to the other central banks as they have very large debt stocks to monetize. In terms of global growth, Jurrien believes it will be slowing as China is becoming a drag on the global economy whereas in the past it would be China that would lift the global economy out of a slump. He believes this is because China would increase infrastructure spending and buy up copper & oil, creating a new global capital expenditure cycle. Lastly, Jurrien shares his thoughts on wages and if they can solve the conflicting signals between job vacancy and unemployment. He believes that it is not just a case of wages, but thinks wages are what clears the supply and demand imbalance while noting there are other things going on as well. Follow along with Jurrien's charts on Twitter: @TimmerFidelity Recorded on October 25, 2021.
The United States Federal Reserve is reviewing the ethics policies that govern the financial holdings and activities of its senior officials in the wake of recent disclosures that two regional Fed presidents engaged in extensive trading last year.Financial disclosure forms show that Robert Kaplan, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, in 2020 traded millions of dollars of stock in companies such as Apple, Amazon, and Google, while Eric Rosengren, president of the Boston Fed, traded in stocks and real estate investment trusts.Both Kaplan and Rosengren said last week that their trades were permitted under the Fed's ethics rules. They however said they would sell their holdings at the end of this month and place the money in index funds, which track a wide range of securities, or in cash.
The United States Federal Reserve is reviewing the ethics policies that govern the financial holdings and activities of its senior officials in the wake of recent disclosures that two regional Fed presidents engaged in extensive trading last year.Financial disclosure forms show that Robert Kaplan, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, in 2020 traded millions of dollars of stock in companies such as Apple, Amazon, and Google, while Eric Rosengren, president of the Boston Fed, traded in stocks and real estate investment trusts.Both Kaplan and Rosengren said last week that their trades were permitted under the Fed's ethics rules. They however said they would sell their holdings at the end of this month and place the money in index funds, which track a wide range of securities, or in cash.
The United States Federal Reserve is reviewing the ethics policies that govern the financial holdings and activities of its senior officials in the wake of recent disclosures that two regional Fed presidents engaged in extensive trading last year.Financial disclosure forms show that Robert Kaplan, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, in 2020 traded millions of dollars of stock in companies such as Apple, Amazon, and Google, while Eric Rosengren, president of the Boston Fed, traded in stocks and real estate investment trusts.Both Kaplan and Rosengren said last week that their trades were permitted under the Fed's ethics rules. They however said they would sell their holdings at the end of this month and place the money in index funds, which track a wide range of securities, or in cash.
Inflation just hit its worst level in 13 years. The United States Federal Reserve is printing 120 Billion Dollars per week. Printing money has been happening for a long time but Covid has made the long-term consequences of this ‘getting something for nothing' approach much more apparent. Examples include but are not limited to stimulus cheques, student loan relief, and rent relief. While these things seem good and may be to some extent necessary, they are symptoms of a broader issue. Central banks print and manipulate money to the point that economies are not sustained on their own wholistic health. Long-term systems form around this short-term, artificial abundance creating a fragile economy. Printing money may have short term benefits to individuals, corporations, and governments, but when money is produced from thin air and society makes use of it, nothing is built from the ground up so there's no foundation and no sustainability. Join Raymond as he clarifies what all this means and where it's heading. Included is a discussion of Bitcoin and crypto and how they compare in terms of sustainability. Raymond Aaron has shared his vision and wisdom on radio and television programs for over 40 years. He is the author of over 100 books, including Branding Small Business For Dummies, Double Your Income Doing What You Love, Canadian best-seller Chicken Soup for the Canadian Soul, and he co-authored the New York Times best-seller Chicken Soup for the Parent's Soul. For more information on Weiss Crypto Investor and crypto currencies, visit https://weisscrypto.com/. www.Aaron.com
The Private Western Central Bank that most people know as the United States Federal Reserve bank has now made very clear what is their plan. You are certainly in it, but not for the benefit of you as an American citizen. They are trying to steer you away from anything that is not their fiat currency. They are panicking because it's not working. Dont be fooled by them lest you are to become their digital slave. The American people will take back the power stolen from us!
The Digital Dollar Project — a private sector initiative by the Digital Dollar Foundation and Accenture — recently became a late entrant to the central bank digital currency (CBDC) testing grounds, announcing at least five pilots within the next year. But the United States Federal Reserve has yet to commit to the launch of a digital dollar, widening the gap between the US and other central banks — including China — in CBDC developments. Beijing, having already launched numerous pilot projects in various forms for its CBDC, now officially known as the e-CNY, has a seven-year lead against the US in the global CBDC race. “I would push aside the race analogy, but I would say there's a contest,” former Commodities Futures Trading Commission chair and founder of the Digital Dollar Foundation, J. Christopher Giancarlo, told Forkast.News in a video interview. “The winner of the contest is the nation that successfully incorporates into a digital currency their societal values.” Fed chair Jerome Powell also brushes aside the race analogy, voicing the importance of getting a digital dollar “right” rather than “first.” But U.S. dollar dominance is dwindling. A recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) report found that global reserves of the U.S. dollar sunk to a 25-year low of 59%, numbers not seen since 1995. But Giancarlo says that a digital dollar carrying the values of a democratic society could strengthen the dollar's position as world reserve currency. “We may see a world in which you've got a digital dollar, hopefully — and if we get it right carrying those [democratic] values — competing against currencies of non-democracies that carry different values with them, values of state, surveillance of government, control of financial markets [and] of social credit systems,” Giancarlo said. “The dollar could reemerge once again as — well, it is today, the reserve currency — but even more so because of those democratic values built-in compared to the alternatives.” Accenture's senior managing director David Treat discussed some aspects of how the Digital Dollar Project will explore some of these democratic values including benefits distribution. This being a controversial topic in the current U.S. financial structure, highlighted by a perceived lag in issuance of stimulus checks during the Covid-19 pandemic. “Part of what we're going to explore [are] the various options against a backdrop of not having a national ID system, which is also part of our core societal values,” Treat said. “That ability to actually pair a stablecoin that can embed that business logic into it and to be able to guide what is spent and what is not spent on, paired with a central bank digital currency, we see as a powerful combination and one that's certainly worth exploring.” As for the current state of the Digital Dollar Project and its five pilots in the coming year, Treat revealed the project is currently selecting appropriate players in the industry to lead the initiatives. “We're in the midst of picking the captains for each one of the pilots,” Treat said. “Very intentionally, when you think about the financial inclusion, the unbanked and underbanked, there may be some maybe some really, really important small local players that we announce.”
The Digital Dollar Project — a private sector initiative by the Digital Dollar Foundation and Accenture — recently became a late entrant to the central bank digital currency (CBDC) testing grounds, announcing at least five pilots within the next year. But the United States Federal Reserve has yet to commit to the launch of a digital dollar, widening the gap between the US and other central banks — including China — in CBDC developments. Beijing, having already launched numerous pilot projects in various forms for its CBDC, now officially known as the e-CNY, has a seven-year lead against the US in the global CBDC race. “I would push aside the race analogy, but I would say there’s a contest,” former Commodities Futures Trading Commission chair and founder of the Digital Dollar Foundation, J. Christopher Giancarlo, told Forkast.News in a video interview. “The winner of the contest is the nation that successfully incorporates into a digital currency their societal values.” Fed chair Jerome Powell also brushes aside the race analogy, voicing the importance of getting a digital dollar “right” rather than “first.” But U.S. dollar dominance is dwindling. A recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) report found that global reserves of the U.S. dollar sunk to a 25-year low of 59%, numbers not seen since 1995. But Giancarlo says that a digital dollar carrying the values of a democratic society could strengthen the dollar’s position as world reserve currency. “We may see a world in which you’ve got a digital dollar, hopefully — and if we get it right carrying those [democratic] values — competing against currencies of non-democracies that carry different values with them, values of state, surveillance of government, control of financial markets [and] of social credit systems,” Giancarlo said. “The dollar could reemerge once again as — well, it is today, the reserve currency — but even more so because of those democratic values built-in compared to the alternatives.” Accenture’s senior managing director David Treat discussed some aspects of how the Digital Dollar Project will explore some of these democratic values including benefits distribution. This being a controversial topic in the current U.S. financial structure, highlighted by a perceived lag in issuance of stimulus checks during the Covid-19 pandemic. “Part of what we’re going to explore [are] the various options against a backdrop of not having a national ID system, which is also part of our core societal values,” Treat said. “That ability to actually pair a stablecoin that can embed that business logic into it and to be able to guide what is spent and what is not spent on, paired with a central bank digital currency, we see as a powerful combination and one that's certainly worth exploring.” As for the current state of the Digital Dollar Project and its five pilots in the coming year, Treat revealed the project is currently selecting appropriate players in the industry to lead the initiatives. “We’re in the midst of picking the captains for each one of the pilots,” Treat said. “Very intentionally, when you think about the financial inclusion, the unbanked and underbanked, there may be some maybe some really, really important small local players that we announce.”
If you enjoy making money, you may want to open this email….Have you ever held a beach ball underwater?What happens when you let go of it?It EXPLODES upwards, right?But before that moment, it’s energy is suppressed…Just waiting under the surface…I caged beast….It takes a lot of effort and force and manipulation to hold that beach ball under there, right?THAT is EXACTLY what is happening right now, at a global scale, and the reason you need to read this letter and share it with 999 of your closest friends. (fair warning, I’m not going to get into the nitty gritty details, I’ve done that previously in this letter -> LINK , going to try to stick to an analogy that will actually make sense for you!)The beach ball = the bond market. The bond market is a $200 Trillion (Conservatively) beach ball, which is being held underwater primarily by the United States Federal Reserve, and their amazing invention, the money printer.Now, in order to get this analogy right, we need to RETHINK the BEACH BALL. Picture this….A giant swimming pool, in an arena, half full of water. There’s a giant beach ball inside the pool, massive. On the side of the pool is a robot.It has a HUGE robot arm. And its only job is to force that beach ball underneath the water. So that’s what it does!!But this is key… as it does this, what happens to the height of the WATER????It goes up, right?The beach ball takes up SPACE in the water, so the water RISES.Let’s say that the water = ASSET PRICES.Assets = Stocks, Bitcoin, Housing, Small Businesses, etc.Still with me? That’s exactly what happened this year and last year during Covid. The government PRINTED MONEY. They suppressed the bond market (remember it’s worth $200 Trillion and is represented by the beach ball).And the WATER (asset prices) rose in conjunction with it.That’s why we hadA stock market at all time highs during a pandemicBitcoin at all time highs during a pandemicHousing prices at all time highs during a pandemic(For those who want to get technical with it, SUPPRESSING the bond market just means that the INTEREST YIELDS on things like the 10Y note have been going down down down down…)Now here’s the thing.Here’s where it gets crazy.I believe we’ve reached a breaking point.The water has gone all the way up to the top of the pool….It is lapping over the sides, leaking into the stadium…..Naturally, the beach ball is RISING slightly (because there isn’t as much water in the pool).STICK WITH THE ANALOGY I SWEAR IT MAKES SENSE.If you have been watching the markets the past few weeks you’ve seen the exact same headlines over and over and OVER again….“Explainer: Why rising rates are unsettling Wall Street” - AP News“Stocks waver as bond yields rise…” The Wall Street Journal“Powell needs a stock selloff to act on bond yields” - BloombergIt’s everywhere. Anytime you hear the words “Bond Yield” or “Rising Rates” or “10Y Treasury Yield” just think of this beachball analogy. The reason rates are RISING right now (the Beach Ball) is because the Bond Market has been held underwater for too long.It is fighting back.That money WANTS to go somewhere else.I mean, honestly why shouldn’t it?Would YOU want to earn 1% interest on your money when inflation is closer to 10-20%?Of course you wouldn’t. And neither would any of these people in the bond market.So, they are selling them. And when they sell them, the rates HAVE to go up to try to encourage people to stay.That’s why the market is barely up today EVEN when we passed a $1.9 TRILLION DOLLAR STIMULUS!It’s crazy!Typically if that had happened over the weekend markets would be ROARING right now. Absolutely BONKERS that they are not. What that tells me is simple. The market is literally SCREAMING that it wants YIELD CURVE CONTROL.It’s saying, in no uncertain terms, “if you don’t shove this beach ball back underwater we are NOT going to cooperate.”And that’s the thing, the only way to shove it back underwater is to go crazy. The first robot isn’t enough.They need another, much larger robot. This robot is gigantic, and made of Teflon.It comes in and on the side of it is a “guarantee”.It says, “I will NEVER, ever, EVER, EVER let the beach ball rise.”That’s what Yield Curve Control is. It is the government stepping in and saying, “We will NEVER let interest rates go up. We are CAPPING them at x %.”By doing that they are COMMITTING to printing READ: AS MUCH MONEY AS NECESSARY to make sure that assets are pumped up, stocks and everything else GOES UP.It really is as simple as that.In a country and World where the economy is judged by ONE FACTOR, and ONE FACTOR ONLY (the stock market) the Gov simply can’t afford to let it slip.(They also LITERALLY can’t afford to let the interest rate rise or else they won’t be able to pay the INTEREST on their own DEBT, lol)So, what I’m telling you is that they LITERALLY have no choice.Yield curve control is incoming, and Yield Curve Control = ROCKET FUEL FOR ALL ASSETS.I know I just talked about Beachballs and Robots and you may be thinking “WTF is Yield Curve Control” but honestly you don’t need to know all the details because it gets really really hairy and technical….YOU CAN JUST FEEL IT IN THE AIR.$1,900,000,000,000.000 YES THAT’S 1.9 TRILLION barely affected the markets today…That’s absolutely ridiculous. That’s because there’s a $200 trillion dollar beach ball being shoved down into a pool, starting to rise, and breaking everything. The only way to fix it is to bring in the other robot and shove that water up, over the edge, up over the walls of the stadium, and out the freaking top. REMINDER: THE WATER = ASSETS.The rich will get richer. Those that hold assets will see those assets explode in value. And the bottom 90% will get screwed. I’m sending this email as a warning shot. If you don’t know what YCC is, you should do your research, or read my other letters. If you do, or you can FEEL the beach ball analogy simply like I can, you need to get your money OUT OF CASH and into ASSETS.Honestly anything ELSE is better than holding cash in a bank account right now.This year is going to be WILD, and one of the biggest WEALTH TRANSFERS in the HISTORY OF THE WORLD.I simply want you to be on the right side of that transfer. I hope this made sense. Let me know in the comments. Subscribe, for heavens sake. I gave out my asset PRICE PREDICTIONS to SUBSCRIBERS ONLY on FRIDAY, and you may have missed it….You can read it for free for 30 days…Kale Get on the email list at thekaleletter.substack.com
Kevin Greene is a retired special agent with the Internal Revenue Service, Criminal Investigation. After 27 years of experience in federal criminal investigations, he and another retired federal agent started Eagle Intel Services LLC, a private investigation firm.www.eagleintelservices.comkgreene@eagleintelservices.comIn this episode we discuss:Using technical equipment to gather evidence in an investigationHow an investigation shut down the trading between the United States Federal Reserve and SwitzerlandThe value of a mentor in investigationsThe most valuable skills needed to be a successful investigator
#Biden2020 #MindfulSkeptics #BoyceLittlefield Janet Yellen - Secretary of Treasury On November 23, 2020, multiple news outlets reported that President-elect Joe Biden will nominate Yellen to serve in the Biden cabinet as the United States Secretary of the Treasury. American economist at the Brookings Institution and a professor emeritus at the University of California, Berkeley, Haas School of Business, having taught economics as a professor for over 20 years from 1985 to 2006. She served as the Chair of the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2018, and as Vice Chair from 2010 to 2014. She was the first woman to head the Federal Reserve. In 2014, Yellen was nominated by President Barack Obama to succeed Ben Bernanke as chair of the United States Federal Reserve. She served one four-year term as Federal Reserve Chair from 2014 to 2018 and was not reappointed by President Donald Trump. #YangGang #Trump2020 #JanetYellen
Today's episode will cover events happening the week ending August 28th, 2020. This week, the federal reserve did something very predictable, the SEC has made it somewhat easier to become an accredited investor…maybe. More Info @ Talk.Bitcoin.Tax Full Show Notes: (00:28) One of the big financial pieces of news this week has to do with the United States Federal Reserve. On Thursday, the chairman of the federal reserve, Jerome Powell, gave a speech at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. In his speech, he announced a major policy shift related to inflation. According to The Economist, “He emphasized that the central bank's existing target for inflation, of 2%, should henceforth be an average: in the face of persistently low inflation, the Fed may pursue efforts to push inflation above the target. And perhaps most important, Mr. Powell noted that the Fed would no longer attempt to prevent employment from rising above its best estimate of the maximum sustainable level.” A more traditional financial analysis of this shift was provided by CNBC's Jim Cramer, who mused that it is “a signal from the central bank that it won't play any part in moderating growth and will continue to provide liquidity until the U.S. economy is outperforming expectations.” And that is “is incredible”. The crypto community has a slightly different opinion on the matter though. Within the community of crypto advocates, one of the primary criticisms of traditional fiat currency, especially USD, is that the federal government can and will print money whenever they feel the need. Of course, this is not possible with any cryptocurrency is a finite supply. Decrypt, a cryptocurrency news outlet, has this to say about the unprecedented move: “Here's what's troubling about the statement: It's a reminder that a small group of people has absolute power over the direction of fiat currency, in this case, the world's reserve currency. The Federal Reserve has the dual mandate to protect the labor market and to keep consumer prices at bay. The problem is that two goals are often opposed and in a world that's increasingly leaning towards populism, central banks will choose to privilege the job market over keeping inflation targets. This means the currency loses.” This isn't necessarily bad news for Bitcoin and crypto though – Decrypt points out that Bitcoin saw a slight price hike after the announcement, although the gains were quickly diminished. More importantly though, they say that Powell's statements “may prompt people to hold the largest cryptocurrency after realizing… Bitcoin has a predictable issuance schedule and a cap on the coins that will ever be issued… Any changes are made by broad consensus…[and] the price of bitcoin will be volatile because of free-market forces, but it won't be devalued because a centralized entity decided more coins will start to flood the market.” So, is the federal government playing directly into the criticisms that crypto enthusiasts regularly lob at them? Seemingly, yes. And it is very likely that crypto enthusiasts will use this event as another one of many rallying cries to get behind cryptocurrency adoption. — (02:55) In other federal government news, the SEC released some seemingly good news for aspiring accredited investors. On Wednesday, a press released was put out titled “SEC Modernizes the Accredited Investor Definition”. This press release expanded the definition of “accredited investor”, and according to the law firm Troutman Pepper, “The new definition moves beyond the long-standing reference to wealth and income to determine whether individuals may be deemed accredited investors. In addition, the definition adds several new categories of entities that now qualify as institutional accredited investors”. The press release implies that the new definition will “effectively identify institutional and individual investors that have the knowledge and expertise to participate in those markets.” Generally, legal experts stated that this was a good thing for traders, as it would make it less difficult for them to become an accredited investor, and gain the benefits that come along with that status. According to Investor Junkie, the previous requirements for being considered an accredited investor were “[having] an annual income of at least $200,000 (or $300,000 for joint income with a spouse) for the last two years with the expectation of earning the same or higher income in the current year; or [having] a net worth exceeding $1 million, either individually or jointly with their spouse.” So, fairly lofty requirements which would leave a lot of average joe cryptocurrency traders in the dust. On paper, it seems like easing the requirements to be considered an accredited investor would be an overall good thing for anyone that is interested in the world of trading. Drew Hinkes, an attorney at Carlton Fields, friend of the podcast, and overall knowledgeable professional in the crypto and legal spaces, had a slightly different reaction to the news on Twitter: “Hot Take: Not meaningful at least not yet. Most investment bankers are probably accredited investors already, so this might add to a few people who sell private placements for a living to the list of people who can buy private placements. BUT the flexibility to add certifications, designations, or credentials in the future opens the doors to new, more meaningful additions. If you want more people to have access to private placements, VOTE for members of Congress who support that policy. Note that the formal rule agrees with my take- these new inclusions are not expected to materially increase the number of accredited investors or amount of capital available.” Does this mean that every trader will soon be considered an accredited investor? Unlikely. However, with some times, these changes could very well play a role in the crypto space. According to Coindesk, “The SEC oversees regulated token offerings in the U.S., and has cracked down on unregulated offerings as illegal securities sales. Wednesday's move helps grow the pool of Americans who can compliantly invest in token sales.” Cointelegraph illustrates a couple of other advocating stances in the crypto space: “Zcoin founder Poramin Insom said the change would positively affect future security token offerings by potentially offering greater inclusion. Uphold chief revenue officer Robin O'Connell said: It's great to see that the regulators are adapting. It allows for increased opportunity and access to investments that were previously just offered to the privileged few.” So, the reactions are a mixed bag, skewing somewhat more positive than negative. However, an overall lower bar for a qualification with a ridiculously high bar, shouldn't be a bad thing – especially when the new bar being set focuses more on qualifications and less on income. — That's it for this week's episode of The Cryptocurrency Informer. Don't forget – if you want to read more about each of these stories, go to talk.bitcoin.tax and click on The Cryptocurrency Informer link. Every episode is accompanied by a number of relevant links for each story, so you can do your own in-depth research on the topics that interest you. Also, check out the interview we released this week with CRYPTY! I speak with her about how cryptocurrency interacts with Generation Z, and she shares her story of starting a cryptocurrency apparel shop featuring unique designs that she creates herself. Plus, Crypty shares why she is so passionate about DigiByte (DGB) and the DGB community. Make sure you subscribe on Apple Music, Spotify, and Google Play Music so you can catch every new episode we release. Have a great weekend everyone – stay informed and stay safe!
Welcome to episode 42 of Activist #MMT. Today is part two in another of my ongoing conversation with PhD. political scientist, author, and MMTer, Joe Firestone. Today, Joe gives a basic introduction to how the United States Federal Reserve "defends its interest rate." This episode was recorded on March 24th, only two days after Joe and I recorded episodes 22 and 24. At the time, despite having just entered my third year of studying MMT, I’d always found the concept to be distant and opaque. Yet I’d often hear, "They’re just defending their interest-rate. They’re just defending their interest-rate." After speaking with Joe, although I struggled to understand the details, I could tell that this seemingly mundane concept was hiding real world problems. In fact, I now believe a major lesson of MMT itself to be that many man-made concepts are used to obscure real world problems – too often immorality, criminality, and mass suffering. The whole MMT journey to date has been to caution readers about the actual nature of constraints on government spending rather than the false constraints taught in economics courses around the world and wheeled out continually by self-serving politicians and lobbyists. Bill Mitchell, August, 2019, On money printing and bond issuance – Part 1 Now nearly three months later, as I record these words, I just (last night) finished reading Stephanie Kelton‘s new book, The Deficit Myth. I also re-read Warren Mosler and Mat Forstater's 2005 paper, "The Natural Rate Of Interest Is Zero." So I definitely understand more of the details. More importantly, however, it’s now clear that for a fully sovereign fiat currency issuer such as the United States, the very act of choosing a target rate above zero can only result in inequality being continually and consistently exacerbated. As I understand it, this is because a higher interest rate means banks must pay more for reserves when transacting in the interbank lending market (also called the banking reserve system). This causes banks to charge more for loans, which means companies take out fewer loans. This in turn increases the chance that the companies will shed workers, and who are the most likely to be shed but the disadvantaged and newly hired? This means that the already unemployed and desperate for work will definitely not be hired, especially since they now have to compete with the ones who were just let go – those obviously with more, and more recent experience. What it all means, is that when the Federal Reserve increases its interest-rate target, it always results in the disadvantaged being ejected from or further shut out of the job market. In other words, it keeps the poor, poor. The Federal Reserve could defend its target rate by paying interest directly on reserves but they choose not to do that. As described in the Mosler-Forstater paper, the only other way to do it is to offer to sell bonds to the public. United States treasury bonds are interest bearing financial instruments that are, without exaggeration, 100% risk-free. As Warren calls them, bonds are "UBI for the rich." In other words, a positive interest rate further enriches the rich. Unfortunately, mainstream economics has asserted for decades that the primary cause of runaway, out-of-control inflation, is unemployment becoming too low. Because of this, the concept of full employment was long ago replaced with "maximum employment," the latter of which means "as low as possible unemployment, as long as it does not trigger runaway inflation." Therefore, according to this theory, it is paramount that the rate of unemployment not be allowed to drop below this threshold. That threshold is considered to be the "natural" rate of unemployment – and conversely, it is also the so-called maximum safe level of employment. But the thing is, the runaway, out-of-control inflation they fear has never happened. So the rate of unemployment required in order to avoid it is anything but natural. In fact, according to a 2017 study by the London School of Economics and Paris School of International Affairs, those who vote to decide on the Federal Reserve’s target rate make their decisions primarily based on personal ideology. In 1977, during the Carter administration, the Federal Reserve was mandated by Congress to maintain both price stability and maximum employment. As Stephanie Kelton points out in her book (chapter 2, footnote 15), the United States Federal Reserve is unique in that it is one of the only major central banks that is mandated to not just maintain price stability. Unfortunately, the Fed has decided that avoiding inflation is more important than keeping the employed employed, and finding jobs for those who are desperate for a job. These lives, especially those with no money and no power, are sacrificed in the name of avoiding the never-before-seen boogeyman of runaway inflation. The late Columbia University economics professor William Vickery calls the natural rate of unemployment ”one of the most vicious euphemisms ever coined.” Most unfortunately, however, even if they wanted to, it’s impossible for the Federal Reserve to achieve truly full employment. Only Congress has the ability to do it. As MMT makes clear, the only way truly full employment can be achieved is by implementing a federal jobs guarantee. Under a job guarantee, everyone who wants a job can have a job (and as long as they show up and work hard, they can keep it). I want to make a final point about the numbers themselves. In December of 2018, the Fed raised its target rate by .25%, which is less than 1%. According to an analysis by Bill Mitchell, of the Fed’s own press release and data, the increase was a conscious choice by the Fed to disemploy at least 1.2 million more Americans. .25 is almost 0! How can a number that small ever be harmful? By the same token, MMT shows that the inequality of the national debt is always a problem but, in and of itself, the raw size never is. But the national debt is currently $26 trillion. That’s a twenty six followed by twelve zeros. How can a number that big not be harmful? The truth is that .25 is such a small number, it’s used as a tool to hide the fact that the Federal Reserve will do whatever it takes to ensure that 1.2 million additional, actual human beings lose their jobs. The scaremongering regarding the massive raw size of the national debt is a signal to the public that they will not be given anything they need to survive, because doing so would make that big scary number even bigger. In 1983, UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher informed the world, "The state has no source of money other than the money people earn themselves.... There is no such thing as public money. There is only taxpayers money." What she really meant was that "there is no such thing as public money because we have decided to no longer create it for you." In other words, it was a signal to average people to brace for crushing and ongoing austerity, which so many all around the world have now endured for almost forty years. Thatcher and her neoliberal descendants have been so successful, it‘s increasingly possible that we face worldwide societal collapse in the not so distant future. We can certainly change that path, but the window for doing so appears to be quickly closing. Here’s one more quote from Stephanie’s book: "MMT fights involuntary unemployment by eliminating it." What this means is that the goal of price stability can be achieved, and with much greater and longer lasting success, by stopping real-world human suffering with truly full employment. I still have so much to learn, but this interview with Joe was my first step in the journey. Enjoy. (The insight regarding Margaret Thatcher comes from episodes 25 and 26 with James feal-Martinez. Links to the episodes with James and much more can be found in the show notes.)
The Sean Lowery Show- Ep 52- Economics & Global Currency with Jake Sandberg I was contacted by my good friend & fraternity brother Jake Sandberg who was passionate about getting his message out about the Federal Reserve & Elites are fucking all of us. He believes not enough people are concerned about this issue! We discuss how America became the Global reserve currency in the 1930's and has screwed it up in so many ways. He believes the United States Federal Reserve is both using this pandemic to cover that all up, and inflate away their debts and kill the dollar. I ask about the solution... Is it Gold? Is it Bitcoin? We get deep into this issue! ✏️Please Subscribe on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe9zJOLgxCH4rRFcP0oZ6Rw
Will the United States Federal Reserve ever return to the gold standard? Token Metrics Media LLC is a regular publication of information, analysis and commentary focused especially on blockchain technology and business, cryptocurrency, blockchain-based tokens, market trends, and trading strategies. Be sure to subscribe and like the stream to let us know you like the content! Sign up for Token Metrics at https://tokenmetrics.com ✔ Follow us on social media below: ► Telegram Alerts Channel: https://t.me/TokenMetricsAlerts ► Telegram Discussion Group: https://t.me/TokenMetricsDiscussion ► Twitter: https://twitter.com/tokenmetricsinc ► Instagram: https://instagram.com/tokenmetrics ► Facebook: https://facebook.com/tokenmetrics
Australia, New Zealand and South Korea on Monday were the latest countries to see their central banks taking measures to help their economies fight the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. The moves follow a shock rate cut by the United States Federal Reserve on Sunday, which lowered interest rates to near zero in another emergency move to help shore up the US economy as the outbreak derails trade, tourism and domestic production. Australia's central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia, poured $3.6bn in liquidity into Australia's financial system and said it was prepared to buy government bonds, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) slashed interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point to a record low on Monday following an emergency meeting. --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/newscast-africa/support Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Bitcoin proponents are voicing alarm after the United States Federal Reserve printed more than its entire market cap in new money this month.
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Nervous Habits host Ricky Rosen is joined by long-time friend and aerospace engineer, Stefanos Axios. They have a spirited and comprehensive discussion, spanning issues including: --Why life seems to go by more quickly as you get older... --How "free radicals" and "anti-oxidants" can protect you from aging.. --Why we should stop treating people when they're sick and start treating them when they're healthy... --How you can predict someone's age just by looking at their hand... --Why we should continue investing trillions of dollars in exploring the observable universe... --Whether we should be worried about Earth becoming uninhabitable within our lifetimes... --What exactly is keeping us from sending people to colonize Mars today... --What makes the United States Federal Reserve arguably the most powerful body in the world... --Why Americans should care about our country's insurmountable national debt... --Whether middle-class Americans should be concerned about a recession or depression in their lifetimes, and finally... --How you are losing money by keeping all of your savings squared away in a bank account. Segments: Aging: 3:45 Space Exploration: 29:21 Money: 1:03:43 Where to Go to Get More Information: 1. Life Expectancy Trends Over Time https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy 2. Leading Causes of Death in the U.S. in 2019 https://www.healthline.com/health/leading-causes-of-death 3. Free Radicals and Anti-Oxidants https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3249911/ 4. Resveratrol in Wine https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/0540/525760cf05d3a245d0b8468fc49f8a3e7bce.pdf 5. The Human Longevity Project (Peter Diamandis) https://www.humanlongevity.com/ 6. Homo Deus, by Yuval Noah Harari 7. Nano-Tech in Our Bloodstreams https://interestingengineering.com/nanobots-will-flowing-body-2030 8. Intermittent Fasting and Aging https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/321690.php 9. NASA's Annual Budget https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_NASA 10. "The Uninhabitable Earth," by David Wallace Wells http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html?gtm=bottom 11. Mars Colonization Timeline https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-mars-plan-timeline-2018-10 12. Elon Musk: SpaceX, Tesla, and the Quest for A Fantastic Future, by Ashlee Vance 13. About Mars One https://www.mars-one.com/ 14. NASA Study Comparing Astronaut to His Twin on Earth (Mark and Scott Kelly) https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/11/science/scott-mark-kelly-twins-space-nasa.html 15. Hyperinflation in Germany, 1922-1923 https://mashable.com/2016/07/27/german-hyperinflation/ 16. Different Forms of Currency Worldwide (World Atlas) https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/how-many-currencies-are-in-the-world.html 17. About The Federal Reserve https://www.federalreserve.gov/ 18. U.S. National Debt in Real-Time https://www.usdebtclock.org/
Janet Yellen is President Obama's choice to replace Ben Bernanke as Chairman of the United States Federal Reserve when his term ends later this month, making her the most powerful central banker in the world and, arguably, the most powerful woman in the world. But who is she? Mary Ann Sieghart finds out - discovering, among other things, how Janet Yellen reacted when an earthquake shook her office. Producer: David Edmonds.