Podcasts about United States Studies Centre

Darren welcomes Dr John Kunkel for the first time to the podcast. John is Senior Economics Adviser at the United States Studies Centre. He has worked as an economist, speech writer, policy analyst, adviser to government and industry executive. John is most well-known for being Chief of Staff to Prime Minister Scott Morrison from August 2018 to May 2022. From 2004 to 2007, he was also speech writer to Prime Minister John Howard.  John has the ideal background to discuss the current geopolitical and geoeconomic moment Australia faces. He holds a PhD in economics from ANU and understands why markets and openness have been essential to Australia's success. But as a PM's Chief of Staff, including during the COVID outbreak, John is well aware of the complexity of Australia's national interests, the difficult of making policy, and the challenges posed by China and, lately, Donald Trump's America. The conversation starts with President Trump and the United States, moves to China, and finishes at home on how Australia needs new thinking, and new policy processes, to navigate this moment in history. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links John Kunkel (bio): https://www.ussc.edu.au/john-kunkel Adam Posen, “Trade wars are easy to lose”, Foreign Affairs, 9 April 2025: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/tariffs-trade-wars-are-easy-lose Yuval Levin Wikipedia page (author of “The Great Debate”, “The Fractured Republic” and “A Time to Build”): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuval_Levin Thomas Sowell, A Conflict of Visions (1987): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Conflict_of_Visions James Q Wilson, The Moral Sense (1993): https://www.simonandschuster.com.au/books/The-Moral-Sense/James-Q-Wilson/9780684833323 China Talk (podcast), “Ezra, Derek and Dan Wang”, 9 May 2025: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/abundance-and-antagonism

He dropped out of the presidential race last July, but the focus is now back on Joe Biden. The former US leader has not only been diagnosed with an aggressive form of prostate cancer, but a new book released this week has accused the White House of covering up a decline in his health before he stepped down to make way for Kamala Harris.  Today, Bruce Wolpe, a senior fellow from the United States Studies Centre on Biden's cancer diagnosis and why staying in the race for so long may have changed the course of history. Featured: Bruce Wolpe, a senior fellow from the United States Studies Centre

Donald Trump’s first 100 days back in the Oval Office have been anything but quiet, with sweeping immigration crackdowns, controversial executive orders, and a presidency that's reshaping both America and the world. To break it all down, we’re joined by Jared Mondschein from the United States Studies Centre. For more, head to news.com.auSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Data analyst Simon Jackman joins Democracy Sausage to chat about the polls, swing seats and how the global uncertainty is impacting this election. When did Labor's recovery start? How has uncertainty in the US influenced the framing of this election and left the Coalition vulnerable? And does this election cycle point to any changes in how the major parties operate? On this episode of Democracy Sausage, Professor Simon Jackman joins Professor Mark Kenny to talk about polling data and the AUS-US relationship. Join us Monday 28 April at Badger&Co on the ANU campus for a recording of Democracy Sausage in the pub. More information here: https://www.anu.edu.au/events/democracy-sausage-2025-live-election-special Simon Jackman is an independent data scientist and strategist. He is an Honorary Professor at the University of Sydney's United States Studies Centre and an elected fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia, and the Society for Political Methodology. Mark Kenny is the Director of the ANU Australian Studies Institute. He came to the University after a high-profile journalistic career including six years as chief political correspondent and national affairs editor for The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and The Canberra Times. Democracy Sausage with Mark Kenny is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts, Google Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. We'd love to hear your feedback on this series, so send in your questions, comments or suggestions for future episodes to democracysausage@anu.edu.au. This podcast is produced by The Australian National University. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Donald Trump hasn't even been in the White House for 100 days, but he's certainly made his mark. His tariffs have wreaked havoc on financial markets, and his administration has implemented a significant overhaul of government spending, DEI policies, and immigration (among other things).Bruce Wolpe is a Senior Fellow (non-resident) at the United States Studies Centre. He has worked with the Democrats in Congress during President Barack Obama’s first term. His latest book is called What Trump’s Second Term Means For Australia - and predicts that America’s democracy won’t survive a second Trump term, with the President potentially heading for a showdown with the Supreme Court.Find out more: https://fearandgreed.com.auSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

  Van and Macca are joined live on air, by Bruce Wolpe, commentator, Senior Fellow (non-resident) at the United States Studies Centre. Bruce is a regular contributor on US politics... LEARN MORE The post Saturday, 5th, April, 2025, Bruce Wolpe, USA Studies Centre-USA Politics Update: Is this the beginning of the end for Trump? appeared first on Saturday Magazine.

Welcome to an end-of-week update from Unmade.In today's audio-led post we share the panel discussion from the launch of the Edelman Trust Barometer. And further down on the Unmade Index, three minnows see price jumps while Enero slumps some more.Unmade's AI event for the media and marketing industry, HumAIn, is coming fast. Our annual paying members are entitled to a free ticket. It's just one of the benefits of a paying membership. Upgrade today.‘Is it fragmented? Absolutely. Is it going to improve? I can't see it.'In today's podcast we share the panel discussion that accompanied the launch of the Edelman Trust Barometer.In a key statistic, of the four key Australian public institutions surveyed, public trust in media is the worst, with just 37% now saying they trusted the media. That was behind government (47%), business (54%) and non-governmental organisations (56%).The podcast features the event's introduction from Tom Robinson, CEO of Edelman Australia, ahead of the panel led by Unmade's Tim Burrowes.The discussion featured:* Terry Flew, Professor of Digital Communication and Culture, The University of Sydney and Co-Director, Centre for AI, Trust and Governance;* Kim Portrate, previously CEO of industry body Think TV;* Gen Z strategist Milly Bannister, founder and CEO of the ALLKND charity focusing on mental health for young Australians;* Jared Mondschein, Director of Research at the United States Studies Centre. The questions tackled included the challenges to societal cohesion as trust in institutions fades, geopolitical headwinds, and why the next generation is losing trust so badly.Portrate, who departed Think TV at the end of the year amidst obvious divisions between her TV network stakeholders, told the room: “Is it fragmented? Absolutely. Is it going to improve? I can't see it. Not in the current environment and not when you've got the competitive pressure and don't abide by any of the legislation that protects the population at large.”Read more on the barometer:A good day for the little guys of the Unmade IndexThree of the smaller stocks on the Unmade Index enjoyed sources in their price yesterday, although none of them released new updates to the market.Out of home advertising company Motio saw its share price jump by 18.5%, taking it up to a market capitalisation of $8m. Boss Adam Cadwallader is due to give a trading update on Tuesday.Sports Entertainment Group, owner of radio network SEN, rose by 13.6% to a $70m market cap. And Pureprofile rose 9.1% to a $47m market cap.Enero Group, owner of agencies including BMF and Hotwire, continued to tank, with the price losing another 4.3% to what is its lowest point in almost a decade.The Unmade Index, which looks at the movements of all the locally listed media and marketing companies, ended the day in equilibrium, remaining on 526.2 points.Declaration of interest: My travel and accommodation to take part in the Trust Barometer event were covered by Edelman. Editing was courtesy of Abe's Audio, the people to talk to about voiceovers, sound design and podcast production.Time to leave you to your Friday. We'll be back with Best of the Week tomorrow. Have a great day.Toodlepip…Tim BurrowesPublisher - Unmade + Mumbrellatim@unmade.media This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unmade.media/subscribe

Very senior members of the Trump administration have this week been caught mistakenly sharing secret plans to bomb the Houthi rebel group in Yemen with a journalist.It happened when the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic was added to a group chat on the popular messaging app Signal, in what appears to be a spectacular breach of US national security.Today, David Smith, from the United States Studies Centre on the great ‘Signalgate' scandal. Featured: David Smith, associate professor of American Politics and Foreign Policy at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney

In this episode: Gaza's fragile ceasefire crumbles, while efforts ramp up to reach one in Ukraine, and a major new military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen. Plus, Bruce Wolpe from the United States Studies Centre joins us to discuss concerns over the US constitution, and a dramatic splashdown for NASA two astronauts after being stuck in space.

Emile Donovan speaks to Professor Brendon O'Connor from the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney about the dramatic altercation between Trump and Zelensky.

Donald Trump's election victory has far-reaching implications for the clean energy sector and climate finance as a whole.Today, we jump in the time machine and take a look at the next four years under Trump, with our guest Lachlan Carey.Lachlan is a Washington-based expert on clean energy investment and a non-resident fellow at the United States Studies Centre. Opinions expressed are solely Lachlan Carey's own and do not express the views or opinions of his employer.This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: OP3 - https://op3.dev/privacy

BONUS: Tailwinds and Tensions of Technology for OSINT (presented at Australian OSINT Symposium) In this bonus episode of the Technology & Security podcast, host Dr. Miah Hammond-Errey presents to the Australian OSINT Symposium. Called Tailwinds and Tensions of Technology for OSINT, this presentation identified three major shifts and explored their impacts. The first is how the digital landscape and emerging tech are transforming intelligence. The second is a decline in information environment. The third is the increased environment of competition and conflict, not just in our region but globally. It unpacks these more and offers insights into some of the tailwinds and tensions for open-source intelligence. Addressing questions from the audience, Dr. Hammond-Errey speaks candidly on the roles of universities, the power dynamics between governments and big tech, and potential social media bans as well as the desire to ‘analogue' life. This episode is a thought-provoking look at the tailwinds and tensions of new technologies for OSINT and includes consideration of how we can foster a tech ecosystem that aligns with democratic values, placing human needs and safety at the forefront. Resources mentioned in the recording: ·               Column:  Lowy Interpreter, 18 Jun 2024, Should Australia ban TikTok? Lowy Interpreter  ·               Book: 29 Jan 2024, Big Data, Emerging Technology & Intelligence: National Security Disrupted, Routledge (30% off discount code: ADC24) ·               Research Report: 9 Feb 2023, Secrecy, sovereignty and sharing: How data and emerging technologies are transforming intelligence. United States Studies Centre·               OSINT Combine https://www.osintcombine.com/·               To find out more about Australian OSINT Symposium (held annually): https://www.osintsymposium.com/  This podcast was recorded on the lands of the Gadigal people, and we pay our respects to their Elders past, present and emerging. We acknowledge their continuing connection to land, sea and community, and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. Thanks to the talents of those involved. Music by Dr Paul Mac and production by Elliott Brennan.  

US President-elect Donald Trump has wasted no time appointing his Cabinet with people to execute his “America First” policies. With less than 70 days to build out his team before Inauguration Day on January 20th, we examine those appointments with Dr Kathryn Robison, Lecturer in American Studies, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney.Image Credit: Shutterstock.com

Professor Brendon O'Connor is from the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. Originally from New Zealand, he is the author of seven books on anti-Americanism and an expert in US politics.

Who will be the next resident of the White House? We discuss expectations for the presidential elections, including the timeline of results and trends to watch with Samuel Garett, Research Associate at the United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney. Image Credit: shutterstock.com

Nevena and Macca talk to Bruce Wolpe-United States Studies Centre, Final Update on US Elections Bruce Wolpe is a Senior Fellow (non-resident) at the United States Studies Centre. Bruce is... LEARN MORE The post Saturday 2nd November, 2024: Bruce Wolpe-United States Studies Centre, Final Update on US Elections appeared first on Saturday Magazine.

To discuss the state of the contest and what comes next, we're joined by Bruce Wolpe, senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.

Dom Knight is joined by Dr Pepper himself, associate professor David Smith from USYD's United States Studies Centre, and PEP with Chas and Dr Dave. The two discuss Trump's bizarre McDonald's stunt, how close the polls are, and the current ploys from each candidate in the final two weeks of the race. You can lose the ads and get more content! Become a Chaser Report VIP member at http://apple.co/thechaser OR https://plus.acast.com/s/the-chaser-report. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

There's been a fair share of personal attacks and vitriol between US Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris as the US election nears. Many have become immune to vitriolic remarks in US politics, particularly from Trump, but why is this behaviour more common in US politics compared to Australia? SBS' Catriona Stirrat speaks to Associate Professor David Smith from the University of Sydney's United States Studies Centre for this edition of Weekend One on One.

What is the significance of rare earths and critical minerals for Australia and its partners? How does Australia's conception of critical minerals differ from its partners? How do critical minerals lists reflect how those states view resource supply chains and vulnerabilities? With China currently dominating the rare earths value chain, how can Australia protect its interests in this space?In this episode, Hayley Channer and John Mavrogenes join David Andrews to discuss critical minerals and rare earths and the geopolitical landscape surrounding them. Hayley Channer is Director, Economic Security at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. Professor John Mavrogenes is a Professor of Economic Geology at the ANU Research School of Earth Sciences. David Andrews is a Senior Policy Advisor at the ANU National Security College (NSC). TRANSCRIPTShow notes: NSC academic programs – find out more NSC's professional development program on rare earths and critical minerals Kim Beazley's call for a rare earths and critical minerals ‘Pillar 3' for AUKUS Jeff Wilson's paper on how the Quad could play a coordinating role in this space We'd love to hear from you! Send in your questions, comments, and suggestions to NatSecPod@anu.edu.au. You can tweet us @NSC_ANU and be sure to subscribe so you don't miss out on future episodes. The National Security Podcast is available on Acast, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bruce Wolpe joins us to talk about the US election, October surprises and the strategy and expectations shaping this month on the campaign trail. Can we expect a continuation of the ‘October surprise' tradition in the US election? How will foreign policy conditions, including rising tensions in the Middle East and ongoing war in Ukraine, influence votes? And which way will the swing states swing? On this episode of Democracy Sausage, Bruce Wolpe returns to give us the latest from the US election campaign. Bruce Wolpe is a Senior Fellow at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. He worked with the Democrats in the US Congress during President Barack Obama's first term, was a senior advisor for Prime Minister Julia Gillard, and the author of Trump's Australia. Mark Kenny is the Director of the ANU Australian Studies Institute. He came to the University after a high-profile journalistic career including six years as chief political correspondent and national affairs editor for The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and The Canberra Times. Democracy Sausage with Mark Kenny is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts, Google Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. We'd love to hear your feedback on this series, so send in your questions, comments or suggestions for future episodes to democracysausage@anu.edu.au. This podcast is produced by The Australian National University. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On September 15 2021 Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced the agreement of both the US and the UK to supply Australia with nuclear-powered submarines. Following its election in 2022 the government of Anthony Albanese made clear that that AUKUS was supported by Labor. Is there now any significant difference between the defence policies of the Coalition and Labor? What exactly are the motives of the three governments involved in the AUKUS agreement--the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia? Speakers: Emeritus Professor Hugh White AO (Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University) Professor Peter Dean (Foreign Policy and Defence, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney) Professor Bec Strating (Director, La Trobe Asia) (Chair) Professor Theo Farrell (Vice Chancellor, La Trobe University) Recorded on 16th July, 2024.

United States Vice President Kamala Harris has begun her campaign for the presidency after President Joe Biden decided to drop out of the race following pressure from his party to step aside. President Biden has endorsed Ms Harris and she appears to be the likely Democratic nominee, but who exactly is she and what are her chances of winning the election? Sam Dover spoke with Bruce Wolpe a Senior Fellow at the United States Studies Centre.

To discuss the fast-changing US election and Kamala Harris moving to the top of the ticket we're joined by Lester Munson, a fellow with the United States Studies Centre.

Senior Fellow at the United States Studies Centre, Bruce Wolpe, joined 3AW Mornings said the news regarding Joe Biden is a "shock, but not a surprise". See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Non-resident fellow at the United States Studies Centre, Victoria Cooper, who specialises in US domestic politics spoke about what the most "poignant" part of Donald Trump's speech at the Republican National Convention was.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bruce Wolpe joins us to discuss the Trump assassination attempt, questions about Biden's leadership and the state of democracy. How will this weekend's assassination attempt on Trump impact his popularity? Is it game over? With four weeks until the Democratic convention, who do party insiders think is best posed to stop Trump returning to the office, and is it still Biden? And what does this all mean for the health of democracy worldwide? On this episode of Democracy Sausage, Bruce Wolpe joins Professor Mark Kenny to go over the current state of the US election and what it means for democracy. Bruce Wolpe is a Senior Fellow at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. He worked with the Democrats in the US Congress during President Barack Obama's first term, was a senior advisor for Prime Minister Julia Gillard, and the author of Trump's Australia. Mark Kenny is the Director of the ANU Australian Studies Institute. He came to the University after a high-profile journalistic career including six years as chief political correspondent and national affairs editor for The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and The Canberra Times. Democracy Sausage with Mark Kenny is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts, Google Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. We'd love to hear your feedback on this series, so send in your questions, comments or suggestions for future episodes to democracysausage@anu.edu.au. This podcast is produced by The Australian National University. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Donald Trump is injured but has survived an assassination attempt while speaking at a rally in Pennsylvania. The shooting has shocked the United States, a country no stranger to political violence and gun crimes. Today, Associate Professor David Smith from the United States Studies Centre at Sydney University, on what has happened and what it means for November's presidential election.Featured: David Smith, Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy from the United States Studies Centre at Sydney University

Senior Fellow at the United States Studies Centre, Bruce Wolpe, has weighed in on the attempted assassination of Donald Trump which has sent shockwaves around the world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nightlife News Breakdown with Philip Clark, joined by Stephen Loosley, former Senator during the Hawke and Keating Governments and former Chair of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and former Senior Visiting Fellow of The United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.

This episode features a conversation between Gene Tunny and Stephen Kirchner about the US dollar's dominance in global finance. They examine the reasons behind the dollar's strong position, the effects of US fiscal policy and public debt, and the debate over its future role. Kirchner explains how the US's status as a net oil exporter influences currency dynamics and global trade.If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions, please email us at contact@economicsexplored.com  or send a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. About Stephen KirchnerStephen Kirchner is the Senior Economist at the Business Council of Australia, the former Program Director for Trade and Investment at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, and a Senior Fellow of the Fraser Institute. An expert in monetary and fiscal policy, financial markets, and trade economics, Mr. Kirchner was formerly a research fellow at Australia's Centre for Independent Studies, an economist with Action Economics, LLC and a former director of economic research with Standard & Poor's Institutional Market Services, based in Sydney and Singapore. He has also worked as an advisor to members of the Australian House of Representatives and Senate.Mr. Kirchner holds a BA (Hons) from the Australian National University, a Master of Economics (Hons) from Macquarie University, and a PhD in Economics from the University of New South Wales. He blogs at www.institutional-economics.com and is active on Twitter (@insteconomics).What's covered in EP246US dollar's global role as reserve currency, benefits, and potential challenges. (0:00)US fiscal policy and its impact on the US dollar's global role. (8:40)Monetary vs fiscal policy dominance in determining interest rates and exchange rates. (14:39)US dollar's role in global finance and its potential replacement by other currencies. (20:39)China's economy, currency, and trade agreements. (29:59)TakeawaysThe US dollar's dominant role in global finance is largely due to the unparalleled size, depth, and liquidity of US capital markets.Despite concerns about the US fiscal position, the demand for US assets remains strong, which supports the dollar's value.Other economies, like the Eurozone and China, face challenges in rivaling the US dollar due to less developed capital markets.The US becoming a net oil exporter has altered the traditional relationship between the US dollar and commodity prices.Fiscal policy in the US, while concerning, does not currently pose an immediate threat to the dollar's global dominance due to strong international demand for US assets.Links relevant to the conversationStephen's post on dollar dominance:https://stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/dollar-dominance-if-you-can-keepStephen's US Studies Centre article “The ‘reserve currency' myth: The US dollar's current and future role in the world economy”:https://www.ussc.edu.au/the-reserve-currency-myth-the-us-dollars-current-and-future-role-in-the-world-economyStephen's post on how the US dollar is now a commodity currencyhttps://stephenkirchner.substack.com/p/why-is-the-australian-dollar-so-weakLumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee's Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.

Visit us at Network2020.org. Australia sits in the South Pacific as a far East bastion of the West. As a strategic actor in this region, and since gaining independence, its relationship with the United States as a military ally and arms provider has placed it in a powerful position in the region. In the era of competition in the South China Sea and gradually increasing tensions over Taiwan, Australia has emerged as a powerful player with significant stakes in the game. Recently, Australia's military and economic relationship with the United States has taken considerable steps, with implications from Canberra to Beijing to Washington and beyond. How has Australia's international presence evolved since the Second World War? How does it prioritize its own interests against those of the United States? Who are its key partners? In what ways does Australia factor into the geopolitical dynamics of the South China Sea? Does Australia stand a chance to shoulder a considerable amount of burden from the U.S. in this theater?Today we're joined by  Dr. Michael Green, Professor and Chief Executive Officer at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney and Former Special Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs and Senior Director for Asia.

The former US president Donald Trump is a convicted criminal. A jury has found him guilty on all charges in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election through a hush money payment to a porn star who said the two had sex.  Will Donald Trump go to jail? Today, Bruce Wolpe, a senior fellow from the US Studies Centre and author of Trump's Australia on what it all means for the former president's campaign for the White House.Featured: Bruce Wolpe, senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre

Recent events in economic security (or, geoeconomics) have been dizzying, but exciting for Darren given this is his primary academic field. In Australia, the new budget delivered by the government plans over $20b of industry policy funding for a “Future Made in Australia”. Meanwhile in the US, the Biden Administration has sharply increased tariffs on Chinese goods focused on green energy. The US wants to cultivate domestic manufacturing, in part because it sees PRC dominance of green technology as a national security risk. This means there is a lot to discuss! In this episode Darren talks with Hayley Channer. who is the Director of the Economic Security Program with the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. Hayley has a diverse background having worked as an Australian Government official, Ministerial adviser, think tank analyst, and represented global non-profit organisations. Prior to her current role, Hayley was a Senior Policy Fellow with the Perth USAsia Centre and, amongst other accolades, was awarded a Fulbright Scholarship in 2022. This lengthy discussion covers the goals of economic security policy and the inherent trade-offs in this domain, particularly in the context of both Australia's and the US' emerging industrial policy efforts, as well as the problem of responding to economic coercion. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Hayley Channer (bio): https://www.ussc.edu.au/hayley-channer Anthony Albanese, “A future made in Australia”, Speech, 11 April 2024: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/future-made-australia Jim Chalmers, “Economic security and the Australian opportunity in a world of churn and change”, Speech at Lowy Institute, 1 May 2024: https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/speeches/address-lowy-institute-sydney Hayley Channer and Georgia Edmonstone, “What does ‘economic security' mean to Australia in 2024?”, US Studies Centre Brief, 30 January 2024: https://www.ussc.edu.au/what-does-economic-security-mean-to-australia-in-2024 Lim, D. (2019). Economic statecraft and the revenge of the state. East Asia Forum Quarterly, 11(4), 31–32: https://eastasiaforum.org/2019/12/04/economic-statecraft-and-the-revenge-of-the-state/ Ferguson, Victor A., Darren J. Lim, and Benjamin Herscovitch. “Between Market and State: The Evolution of Australia's Economic Statecraft.” The Pacific Review 36, no. 5 (September 3, 2023): 1148–80. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2023.2200026 Victor A. Ferguson, Scott Waldron and Darren J. Lim (2022), “Market Adjustments to Import Sanctions: Lessons from Chinese Restrictions on Australian Trade, 2020-21”, Review of International Political Economy”, http://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2022.2090019 Darren J. Lim, Benjamin Herscovitch, and Victor A. Ferguson, “Australia's Reassessment of Economic Interdependence with China”, in Strategic Asia (2023): https://www.nbr.org/publication/australias-reassessment-of-economic-interdependence-with-china/ Leading (podcast), “Speaking Truth to Trump | Former Head of Trump's Communications, Anthony Scaramucci”, 21 February 2024: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=juvfEZsZqUY&list=PL_6zDbB-zRef_M7eXuSLUlGnt7qk66hJq&index=9 Abhijit V. Banerjee, Esther Duflo, Good economics for hard times: Better answers to our biggest problems (2019): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/51014619-good-economics-for-hard-times (Goodreads page) Dani Rodrik, “Don't Fret About Green Subsidies”, Project Syndicate, 10 May 2024: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/green-subsidies-justified-on-economic-environmental-and-moral-grounds-by-dani-rodrik-2024-05

In this episode of Technology and Security, Dr Miah Hammond-Errey speaks with Sir David Omand. The interview is an exploration of the evolving landscape of intelligence, technology and security from the Cold War to the near real time intelligence in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They discuss adaptation in intelligence from high frequency radio to generative AI and from state threats to myriad threat actors. They explore the interpretative nature of data and the necessity for analytical skill in understanding multiple possible explanations in both intelligence work and political decision-making. They discuss the importance of intelligence in supporting diplomatic efforts and informing policy decisions, the unique trust as well as generational and cultural depth of the Five Eyes alliance and the risks of politicising intelligence.  Moving beyond the debate of comparative importance of specific collection mechanisms they discuss the real value of diversity of thought and experiences in analytical outcomes in intelligence work. They explore the need for security to be considered within the human rights framework, rather than as separate and potentially conflicting priorities. They cover why the resilience of information architectures is critical – and flows of information are akin to the principles of supply chain dependencies. They also discuss intelligence leadership during technological change, stressing motivation, mission and adaptability. Sir David Omand GCB is a RUSI Distinguished Fellow, KCL Visiting Professor; former UK Security and Intelligence Co-ordinator, Cabinet Office Resources mentioned in the recording: ·               Omand, D. (2010) Securing the state. New York, Columbia University Press.·               Omand, D. (2020) How Spies Think: Ten Lessons in Intelligence, Penguin Books Limited. ·               Omand, D. (2024) How to Survive a Crisis, Lessons in Resilience and Avoiding Disaster, Penguin Books Limited. ·               Miah Hammond-Errey, 2024, Big Data, Emerging Technologies and Intelligence: National Security Disrupted, Routledge (20% discount code for book AFL04)·               Miah Hammond-Errey, 9 Feb 2023, Secrecy, sovereignty and sharing: How data and emerging technologies are transforming intelligence, United States Studies Centre·               Miah Hammond-Errey (2023) Big data, emerging technologies and the characteristics of ‘good intelligence', Journal of Intelligence and National Security·               Cixin Liu (2008) Three Body Problem  This podcast was recorded on the lands of the Gadigal people, and we pay our respects to their Elders past, present and emerging. We acknowledge their continuing connection to land, sea and community, and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. Thanks to the talents of those involved. Music by Dr Paul Mac and production by Elliott Brennan.  Transcript check against delivery Dr Miah Hammond-Errey: Sir David Omand has had to date two rather remarkable careers. He had an extensive leadership career in British security, intelligence and defence, holding senior positions, including as director of GCHQ. He served on the UK Joint Intelligence Committee and was the first security and intelligence coordinator in the Cabinet Office. Subsequently, he became a non-executive director, has been awarded honorary doctorates and holds esteemed academic posts as well as publishes prolifically. He is currently a visiting professor in the War Studies Department at the King's College London. His books are Securing the State Principled Spying The Ethics of Secret Intelligence with professor Mark Pythian, and How Spies Think. His forthcoming book is called How to Survive a Crisis. I'm so thrilled to have you join me on the Technology and Security podcast, David.  Sir David Omand: I'm looking forward to this conversation. Dr Miah Hammond-Errey: We're coming to you today from the lands of the Gadigal people. We pay our respects to their elders, past, present and emerging both here and wherever you're listening. We acknowledge their continuing connection to land, seeing community, and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. Dr Miah Hammond-Errey: [00:01:27] What are the biggest changes you've seen throughout your distinguished career in intelligence? Sir David Omand: Well, two stand out. Obviously. One is the changes in the nature of the threats that intelligence is there to support government decision making. And the other is obviously in the technology. I joined GCHQ in 1969. So it was in the Cold War. It seems a very, very long time ago. But of course there was no internet, there were no emails. The interception of communications was of high frequency transmissions and even high frequency Morse was was still very much in use. And all of that has changed beyond recognition. The fundamental purposes haven't changed. I think of intelligence as the reason human beings evolved. Intelligence was to make better decisions by reducing the ignorance of the person trying to make the decision. Dr Miah Hammond-Errey: [00:02:34] So you've outlined a pretty major change in the threat landscape and of course, in technology. how ready do you think intelligence agencies are for the challenges that we face now? But those coming down the line as well. Sir David Omand: I think if I took the Five Eyes we've done well so far, uh, to keep up with some of the big technological changes, there are still obviously adaptations we need to make and the nature of the threat with the reappearance, if you like, of perceptions of major state threats. Uh, uh, that takes some time to adjust to. We've in Europe, we have a major war going on, but with following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But at the end of the Cold War, the British intelligence establishment, we ceased to maintain the number of Russian speakers and specialists in Russian weapons systems, Soviet weapons systems, which we used to have, and some of that has had to be rebuilt. So the intelligence world, it's always about adaptation, about trying to keep up. I think of it in terms of a dynamic interaction between demand and supply. You have demands for intelligence. And after 911, those demands were very different. They were about information on individuals, individual terrorists, for example. Where were they? Who were their associates, where were they traveling, what capabilities did they have? And those sort of demands for information coincided with a huge upheaval in supply, the ability of digital technology and the internet to supply answers t...

In 2021 a new alliance between the United States, Australia and the United Kingdom was announced. Dubbed the AUKUS agreement, the centrepiece of the plan was for the United States to build Australia new nuclear submarines, to replace its aging fleet. Now almost three years later, the plan has evolved, and with it, inevitably has the budget expectations and the criticisms. Guest: Professor Peter Dean (Director of Foreign Policy and Defence, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney) Recorded 28th March, 2024.

Donald Trump is known for being the loudest, most controversial and outburst-prone politician of our time.  Now, a judge has issued a gag order against him in an attempt to prevent further outbursts. Can Donald Trump really be told to be quiet? And will orders from the courts begin to hamper his chances of being re-elected as president? Today, senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre and author of Trump's Australia Bruce Wolpe, on whether Trump's legal battles are finally catching up with him. Socials: Stay in touch with us on Twitter and Instagram Guest: Senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre, and author of Trump's Australia, Bruce Wolpe

Many know it as the platform of choice for people who love to share videos of themselves dancing, or, say, combing the fur of their toy poodles. But, to hear politicians and late night talk show hosts discuss TikTok, lately, you'd think the app was a one-way ticket to political and social chaos.It all kicked off, last week, when the American House of Representatives passed a bill that - should it become law - would require the Chinese company that owns TikTok to sell it to an American interest. Otherwise, the app would face being banned in the United States.Today, Bruce Wolpe, a former American congressional staffer, and now a senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre, on what lit the fuse on this geopolitical explosion. And whether Australia is likely to follow suit, with its own TikTok banSubscribe to The Age & SMH: https://subscribe.smh.com.au/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Many know it as the platform of choice for people who love to share videos of themselves dancing, or, say, combing the fur of their toy poodles. But, to hear politicians and late night talk show hosts discuss TikTok, lately, you'd think the app was a one-way ticket to political and social chaos.It all kicked off, last week, when the American House of Representatives passed a bill that - should it become law - would require the Chinese company that owns TikTok to sell it to an American interest. Otherwise, the app would face being banned in the United States.Today, Bruce Wolpe, a former American congressional staffer, and now a senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre, on what lit the fuse on this geopolitical explosion. And whether Australia is likely to follow suit, with its own TikTok banSubscribe to The Age & SMH: https://subscribe.smh.com.au/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mike is joined by Dr. John Kunkel, Senior Economics Adviser at the United States Studies Centre. Dr. Kunkel has worked as an economist, speech writer, policy analyst, and adviser to government and industry executive and previously served as Chief of Staff to Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison. He has a PhD in Economics from the Australian National University and is the author of "America's Trade Policy Towards Japan: Demanding Results", a study of US-Japan trade relations from Reagan to Clinton.  The conversation begins by placing the Australian economy amid the shifting economic order of recent years. Mike and John note that the contemporary Australian debate has come late in adapting to these global economic changes, partially due to the country's large resource base and overall economic resilience and flexibility. They discuss the unique position of Australia's experience with globalization, which allowed it to avoid the worst of the domestic economic drawbacks that afflicted Europe and the United States. They then delve into the impact of ‘Bidenomics' and US industrial policy on the economic debate in Australia, assessing how Australia is looking at these more protectionist policies to understand both the wrinkles and opportunities they present. After a discussion of evolving global economic dynamics and what a new American trade agenda should look like, they conclude by discussing an upcoming economic security conference in Australia, which is targeted at interpreting different international economic security policies, and tracking how these are transitioning over time. 

What is open-source intelligence (OSINT)?How does big data influence our understanding of “good” intelligence? And does Australia need a dedicated OSINT agency in the National Intelligence Community? In this episode, Dr Miah Hammond-Errey and Ben Scott join Olivia Shen to discuss the increasing importance of open-source intelligence and big data in intelligence analysis, and the evolution required from intelligence agencies to keep up. Dr Miah Hammond-Errey is the Director of the Emerging Technology Program at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. Ben Scott is a Senior Advisor at the ANU National Security College, and has over 25 years of experience in diplomacy, intelligence and think tanks, including stints at the Lowy Institute and the Office of National Intelligence.Olivia Shen is a Director at NSC on secondment from the Department of Home Affairs. Show notes: Securing our Future – national security conference, 9-10 April, 2024: secure your tickets ‘Adapting Australian intelligence to the information age,' Big Data, Emerging Technologies and Intelligence: National Security Disrupted,Decoding good intelligence, Submission to the 2024 Independent Intelligence Review We'd love to hear from you! Send in your questions, comments, and suggestions to NatSecPod@anu.edu.au. You can tweet us @NSC_ANU and be sure to subscribe so you don't miss out on future episodes. The National Security Podcast is available on Acast, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Yesterday, Donald Trump won the Republican primary election in New Hampshire. He beat his only remaining rival, Nikki Haley, and with this victory, Trump declared that he is now his party's presidential nominee. This status won't actually be made official until the Republican National Convention in July. But one thing is for sure, Trump is now one giant step closer to returning to the White House. Today, Bruce Wolpe, senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre, on whether Nikki Haley could still be a threat to Trump. And whether the multiple charges Trump faces will stop his presidential bid.Subscribe to The Age & SMH: https://subscribe.smh.com.au/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Yesterday, Donald Trump won the Republican primary election in New Hampshire. He beat his only remaining rival, Nikki Haley, and with this victory, Trump declared that he is now his party's presidential nominee. This status won't actually be made official until the Republican National Convention in July. But one thing is for sure, Trump is now one giant step closer to returning to the White House. Today, Bruce Wolpe, senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre, on whether Nikki Haley could still be a threat to Trump. And whether the multiple charges Trump faces will stop his presidential bid.Subscribe to The Age & SMH: https://subscribe.smh.com.au/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome back to RadicalxChange(s), and happy 2024!In our first episode of the year, Matt speaks with Margaret Levi, distinguished political scientist, author, and professor at Stanford University. They delve into Margaret and her team's groundbreaking work of reimagining property rights. The captivating discussion revolves around their approach's key principles: emphasizing well-being, holistic sustainability encompassing culture and biodiversity, and striving for equality.RadicalxChange has been working with Margaret Levi and her team at Stanford, together with Dark Matter Labs, on exploring and reimagining the institutions of ownership.This episode is part of a short series exploring the theme of What and How We Own: Building a Politics of Change.Tune in as they explore these transformative ideas shaping our societal structures.Links & References: References:Desiderata: things desired as essential.Distributive justiceElizabeth Anderson - Relational equalityDebra Satz - SustainabilityWhat is wrong with inequality?Elinor "Lin" Ostrom - Common ownershipOstrom's Law: Property rights in the commonsIndigenous models of stewardshipIndigenous Peoples: Defending an Environment for AllColorado River situationA Breakthrough Deal to Keep the Colorado River From Going Dry, for NowHow did Aboriginal peoples manage their water resourcesFurther Reading Recommendations from Margaret:A Moral Political Economy: Present, Past and Future (2021) by Federica Carugati and Margaret LeviDædalus (Winter 2023): Creating a New Moral Political Economy | American Academy of Arts and Sciences (Edited by Margaret Levi and Henry Farrell)The works of Elizabeth Anderson, including Private Government (2017) and What Is the Point of Equality? (excerpt from Ethics (1999))Justice by Means of Democracy (2023) by Danielle AllenKatharina PistorBios:Margaret Levi is Professor of Political Science and Senior Fellow at the Center for Democracy, Development and Rule of Law (CDDRL) at the Freeman Spogli Institute (FSI) at Stanford University. She is the former Sara Miller McCune Director of the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences (CASBS) Levi is currently a faculty fellow at CASBS and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment, co-director of the Stanford Ethics, Society and Technology Hub, and the Jere L. Bacharach Professor Emerita of International Studies at the University of Washington. She is the winner of the 2019 Johan Skytte Prize and the 2020 Falling Walls Breakthrough. She is a member of the National Academy of Sciences, the British Academy, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the American Philosophical Society, and the American Association of Political and Social Sciences. She served as president of the American Political Science Association from 2004 to 2005. In 2014, she received the William H. Riker Prize in Political Science, in 2017 gave the Elinor Ostrom Memorial Lecture, and in 2018 received an honorary doctorate from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.She earned her BA from Bryn Mawr College in 1968 and her PhD from Harvard University in 1974, the year she joined the faculty of the University of Washington. She has been a Senior Fellow at the Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University. She held the Chair in Politics, United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, 2009-13. At the University of Washington she was director of the CHAOS (Comparative Historical Analysis of Organizations and States) Center and formerly the Harry Bridges Chair and Director of the Harry Bridges Center for Labor Studies.Levi is the author or coauthor of numerous articles and seven books, including Of Rule and Revenu_e (University of California Press, 1988); _Consent, Dissent, and Patriotism (Cambridge University Press, 1997); Analytic Narratives (Princeton University Press, 1998); and Cooperation Without Trust? (Russell Sage, 2005). In the Interest of Others (Princeton, 2013), co-authored with John Ahlquist, explores how organizations provoke member willingness to act beyond material interest. In other work, she investigates the conditions under which people come to believe their governments are legitimate and the consequences of those beliefs for compliance, consent, and the rule of law. Her research continues to focus on how to improve the quality of government. She is also committed to understanding and improving supply chains so that the goods we consume are produced in a manner that sustains both the workers and the environment. In 2015 she published the co-authored Labor Standards in International Supply Chains (Edward Elgar).She was general editor of Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics and is co-general editor of the Annual Review of Political Science. Levi serves on the boards of the: Carlos III-Juan March Institute in Madrid; Scholar and Research Group of the World Justice Project, the Berggruen Institute, and CORE Economics. Her fellowships include the Woodrow Wilson in 1968, German Marshall in 1988-9, and the Center for Advanced Study of the Behavioral Sciences in 1993-1994. She has lectured and been a visiting fellow at the Australian National University, the European University Institute, the Max Planck Institute in Cologne, the Juan March Institute, the Budapest Collegium, Cardiff University, Oxford University, Bergen University, and Peking University.Levi and her husband, Robert Kaplan, are avid collectors of Australian Aboriginal art and have gifted pieces to the Seattle Art Museum, Metropolitan Museum of Art, National Women's Museum of Art, and the Nevada Museum of Art.Margaret's Social Links:Margaret Levi | Website@margaretlevi | X (Twitter)Matt Prewitt (he/him) is a lawyer, technologist, and writer. He is President of the RadicalxChange Foundation.Matt's Social Links:@m_t_prewitt | XAdditional Credits:This episode was recorded by Matt Prewitt. Connect with RadicalxChange Foundation:RadicalxChange Website@RadxChange | TwitterRxC | YouTubeRxC | InstagramRxC | LinkedInJoin the conversation on Discord.Credits:Produced by G. Angela Corpus.Co-Produced, Edited, Narrated, and Audio Engineered by Aaron Benavides.Executive Produced by G. Angela Corpus and Matt Prewitt.Intro/Outro music by MagnusMoone, “Wind in the Willows,” is licensed under an Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 International License (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0)

Back in April, the Democrats officially chose Joe Biden to run for the American presidency next year, because he could beat Donald Trump. But that was then.Since then, Biden's approval has begun to tank. And voters of all stripes have reportedly been clutching their foreheads in despair. These are the candidates? An 81-year-old, and a would-be criminal with a fondness for quoting Hitler?Bruce Wolpe, who served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress during President Barack Obama's first term, has been analysing American presidential elections for decades.Today, Bruce, who's also a senior fellow at The United States Studies Centre, joins me to discuss what history can tell us about who might win. Subscribe to The Age & SMH: https://subscribe.smh.com.au/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Back in April, the Democrats officially chose Joe Biden to run for the American presidency next year, because he could beat Donald Trump. But that was then.Since then, Biden's approval has begun to tank. And voters of all stripes have reportedly been clutching their foreheads in despair. These are the candidates? An 81-year-old, and a would-be criminal with a fondness for quoting Hitler?Bruce Wolpe, who served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress during President Barack Obama's first term, has been analysing American presidential elections for decades.Today, Bruce, who's also a senior fellow at The United States Studies Centre, joins me to discuss what history can tell us about who might win. Subscribe to The Age & SMH: https://subscribe.smh.com.au/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Since its first formation in 2007, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or "Quad" of the Australia, India, Japan and the United States of America has continued to evolve in to something that isn't a fully formed alliance, but is a bit more than just a talking shop as well. Encouraged by the changing nature of the People's Republic of China, it is evolving in to something with great potential for enhancing security and international norms at sea to the benefit of not just the Quad, but the other nations in the area.For the full hour today to discuss the Quad will be returning guest Blake Herzinger.The foundation for our discussion will be via the Unites States Study Centre, Bolstering the Quad: The case for a collective approach to maritime security.Blake is a Research Fellow in the Foreign Policy and Defence Program at the United States Studies Centre. His work is broadly focused on Indo-Pacific defence policy and US security cooperation, with emphasis on maritime security and sea power. Previously a Non-resident Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, Blake also directed global security policy for Twitter, and was a Non-resident WSD-Handa Fellow and Young Leader at Pacific Forum. Prior to that, Blake was a civilian adviser to the US Pacific Fleet, focusing on maritime security cooperation in Southeast Asia, South Asia, and the South Pacific. During that time, he and his team developed the Indo-Pacific Maritime Security Initiative program, delivering assistance ranging from coursework to coast guard cutters to regional maritime law enforcement organisations. He is a serving US Navy Reserve foreign area officer and spent ten years in active service.His work can be found in Foreign Policy, War on the Rocks, The Diplomat, The Straits Times and Nikkei Asia, among other publications. His book, Carrier Killer, focuses on China's anti-ship ballistic missile program and its influence on the regional military balance. Blake holds an MSc in Strategic Studies from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) at Nanyang Technological University, and completed his BA in Political Science at Brigham Young University.This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/3270000/advertisement

What does success in the struggle against the People's Republic of China look like? Senior Fellow John Lee joins Arsenal of Democracy to deep dive on his report on the topic, co-authored with Lavina Lee, available here: https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/success-struggle-against-people-republic-china-john-lavina-leeJohn Lee is a senior fellow at Hudson Institute. He is also a senior fellow (non-resident) at the United States Studies Centre and adjunct professor at the University of Sydney.

The U.S. dollar's status as the global reserve currency is diminishing, which reduces the power that U.S. leaders have over the global economic system. In this episode, hear highlights from recent Congressional testimony during which financial elites examine the current status of the global financial system and what Congress is being told to do to address perceived threats to it (and to their own power). Please Support Congressional Dish – Quick Links Contribute monthly or a lump sum via PayPal Support Congressional Dish via Patreon (donations per episode) Send Zelle payments to: Donation@congressionaldish.com Send Venmo payments to: @Jennifer-Briney Send Cash App payments to: $CongressionalDish or Donation@congressionaldish.com Use your bank's online bill pay function to mail contributions to: 5753 Hwy 85 North, Number 4576, Crestview, FL 32536. Please make checks payable to Congressional Dish Thank you for supporting truly independent media! View the show notes on our website at https://congressionaldish.com/cd276-the-demise-of-dollar-dominance Background Sources Recommended Congressional Dish Episodes CD269: NDAA 2023/Plan Ecuador CD230: Pacific Deterrence Initiative CD195: Yemen CD187: Combating China CD102: The World Trade Organization: COOL? International Monetary Fund “IMF Financial Activities List 2023.” Updated June 21, 2023. International Monetary Fund. “Weekly Report on Key Financial Statistics.” June 9, 2023. International Monetary Fund. “IMF Lending.” Updated December 2022. International Monetary Fund. Argentina “Argentina: Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding” October 17, 2018. International Monetary Fund. “Argentina Policy Memorandum.” January 11, 1999. International Monetary Fund. Ecuador “Ecuador—Supplementary Letter of Intent.” March 13, 2003. International Monetary Fund. Smaller Banks within the World Trade System International Finance Corporation China “Members and Observers.” World Trade Organization. “ China and the WTO.” World Trade Organization. “From ‘China Shock' to deglobalisation shock: China's WTO accession and US economic engagement 20 years on.” Stephen Kirchner. January 24, 2022. United States Studies Centre. “The China Reckoning: How Beijing Defied American Expectations.” Kurt M. Campbell and Ely Ratner. February 13, 2018. Foreign Affairs. The World Bank “Who can borrow from the World Bank?” December 10, 2020. Bretton Woods Observer. “Domination of the United States on the World Bank.” Eric Toussaint. April 2, 2020. Committee for the Abolition of Illegitimate Debt. “Why Is the World Bank Still Lending to China?” Yukon Huang. January 15, 2020. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Congressional Stock Trade Tracking Quiver Quantitative Unusual Whales US Abuse of Sanctions “The Other Counteroffensive to Save Ukraine.” Lawrence Summers et. al. June 15, 2023. Foreign Affairs. Allies Pivoting “Europe must resist pressure to become ‘America's followers,' says Macron.” Jamil Anderlini and Clea Caulcutt. April 9, 2023. Politico. “US State Dept backs latest raft of Saudi, UAE, Jordan arms sales.” February 2, 2022. Al Jazeera. Witnesses Mark Rosen on Linkedin Daniel F. Runde on Linkedin “Membership Roster.” Accessed June 24, 2023. Council on Foreign Relations. Tyler Goodspeed on Linkedin Carla Norrlof - “Board of Directors.” Atlantic Council. Daniel McDowell bio Marshall Billingslea on Linkedin Audio Sources Dollar Dominance: Preserving the U.S. Dollar's Status as the Global Reserve Currency June 7, 2023 House Financial Services Committee Watch on YouTube Witnesses: Dr. Tyler Goodspeed, Kleinheinz Fellow, Hoover Institution at Stanford University Dr. Michael Faulkender, Dean's Professor of Finance, Robert H. Smith School of Business at University of Maryland Dr. Daniel McDowell, Associate Professor, Maxwell School of Citizenship & Public Affairs at Syracuse University Marshall Billingslea, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute Dr. Carla Norrlöf, Senior Fellow, The Atlantic Council and Professor, University of Toronto Clips 34:05 Dr. Tyler Goodspeed: In 2022, as the Ranking Member highlighted, 88% of all foreign exchange transactions by value involved the United States Dollar, a figure that has been roughly constant since 1989, which is testament to the substantial path dependence in international currency usage due to large positive network externalities. As the Ranking Member also highlighted, 59% of all official foreign exchange reserves were held in US dollars, which is down from a figure of 71.5% in 2001. By comparison 31% of all foreign exchange transactions by value involve the Euro, which is the second most commonly transacted currency, which accounted for 20% of official foreign exchange reserves. 34:50 Dr. Tyler Goodspeed: The fact that 90% of all foreign exchange transactions continue to involve the United States dollar, and that global central banks continue to hold almost 60% of their foreign exchange reserves in US dollars confers net economic benefits on the United States economy. First, foreign demand for reserves of US dollars raises demand for dollar denominated securities, in particular United States Treasury's. This effectively lowers the cost of borrowing for US households, US companies, and federal, state and local governments. It also means that on average, the United States earns more on its investments in foreign assets than we have to pay on foreign investments in the United States, which allows the United States to import more goods and services than we export. Second, foreign demand for large reserves of US dollars and dollar denominated assets raises the value of the dollar and a stronger dollar benefits us consumers and businesses that are net importers of goods and services from abroad. Third, large reserve holdings of US currency abroad in effect constitutes an interest free loan to the United States worth about $10 to $20 billion per year. Fourth, the denomination of the majority of international transactions in US dollars likely modestly lowers the exchange rate risks faced by US companies. Fifth, the given the volume of foreign US dollar holdings and dollar denominated debt, monetary policy actions by foreign central banks generally have a smaller impact on financial conditions in the United States than actions by the United States Central Bank have on financial conditions in other countries. 36:40 Dr. Tyler Goodspeed: However, the benefits of the US dollar's global reserve status are not without costs. The lower interest rates in the United States benefit US borrowers, especially the federal government. They also lower returns to US savers. In addition, though a stronger dollar benefits US consumers and businesses that net import goods and services from abroad, it does also disadvantage US firms that export goods and services abroad as well as firms that compete against imported goods and services. Furthermore, the perception of the US dollar as a safe haven asset means that demand for the dollar tends to increase in response to adverse macroeconomic events that are global in nature. As a result, the competitiveness of US exporters and US firms that compete against imported goods and services are likely to face an increased competitive disadvantage at times of elevated global macroeconomic stress. 37:35 Dr. Tyler Goodspeed: However, despite these costs, studies generally find that the economic benefits of the dollar's prominent global status outweigh the costs, providing a modest net benefit to the United States economy. This does not include the substantial benefit to which the chairman referred of the United States dollar's centrality in global transactions, allowing the United States to utilize financial sanction tools when appropriate in support of national security objectives. 44:50 Dr. Daniel McDowell: With little more than the stroke of the President's pen or through an Act of Congress, the US government can use financial sanctions to impose enormous economic costs on targeted foreign actors, be they individuals, firms, or state institutions, by freezing their dollar assets or cutting them off from access to the banks through which those dollars flow. The consequences for individual targets, known as specially designated nationals or SDNs, are severe, significantly impairing targets capacity to participate in international trade, investment, debt repayment, and depriving them of access to their wealth. Over the last two decades, the United States has used the tool of financial sanctions with increasing frequency. For example, in the year 2000, just four foreign governments were directly targeted under a US Treasury Country Program overseen by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). Today that number is greater than 20, and if we include penalties from secondary sanctions the list gets even longer. The more that the United States has reached for financial sanctions, the more it has made adversaries and foreign capitals aware of the strategic vulnerability that stems from dependence on the dollar. Some governments have responded by implementing anti-dollar policies measures that are designed to reduce an economy's reliance on the US currency for investment in cross-border transactions. But these measures sometimes fail to achieve their goals. Others have produced modest levels of de-dollarization. Notable examples here include Russian steps to cut its dollar reserves and reduce the use of the dollar and trade settlement in the years leading up to its full scale invasion of Ukraine, or China's ongoing efforts to build its own international payments network based on the Yuan, efforts that have taken on a new sense of urgency as Beijing has become more aware of its own strategic vulnerabilities from Dollar dependence. 47:05 Dr. Daniel McDowell: The United States should reconsider the use of so-called symbolic financial sanctions. That is, if the main objective of a tranche of sanctions is to signal to the world or to a domestic audience that Washington disapproves of a foreign government's policy choices, other measures that can send a similar signal but do not politicize the dollar system ought to be considered first. Second, the use of financial sanctions against issuers of potential rival currencies in particular, China and its Yuan should face a higher bar of scrutiny. Even a small targeted sanctions program provides information to our adversaries about their vulnerabilities, and gives them time to prepare for a future event when a broad US sanctions program may be called upon as part of a major security crisis, when such measures will be most needed. Finally, whenever possible, US financial sanctions should be coordinated with our allies in Europe and Asia, who should feel as if they are key stakeholders in the dollar system and not vassals to it. Such coordinated efforts will prevent our friends from seeking to conduct business with U.S. adversaries outside of the dollar system and send a message to the whole world that moving activities into secondary currencies, like the Euro or the Yen, is not a safe haven. 48:35 Marshall Billingslea: I'll say at the outset that I agree with you and others that to paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of the dollar's demise have been greatly exaggerated. That said, we need to remind ourselves that in the 16th century the Spanish silver dollar was the dominant currency, in the 17th century it was Dutch florins, in the 18th century it was the pound sterling. The link between a nation's currency and its role as the relatively dominant political actor on the world stage is pretty clear. And that is why people like Lula from Brazil, Putin and Xi all aspire to undercut the role of the dollar as the global reserve currency. 50:00 Marshall Billingslea: If we look at what Russia did in the run-up to its further invasion of Ukraine, they began dumping ownership of treasury bonds in 2018. In that year, they plummeted from $96 billion and holdings down to $15 billion and they also started buying large amounts of gold. China is now, as the Ranking Member has observed, embarking on its own its own gold buying spree. I haven't seen the data for May, but April marked the sixth straight month of Chinese expansion in its gold holdings, and I'm not sure I believe the official figures. We have to recall that China is the dominant gold mining player around the world and half of those gold mining companies are state-owned. So the actual size of China's war chest when it comes to gold reserves may be far higher. In fact, I suspect inevitably far higher than official numbers suggest. Last year China also started dumping its treasuries. 2022 marked the largest or second largest decrease on record, with a drop of about $174 billion, and China stood at the lowest level since 2010. In terms of its holdings, though, this past March they did reverse course. This bears close watching because a sell-off may be a strong indicator of planned aggression. 51:20 Marshall Billingslea: The sheer size of the Chinese economy dwarfs what we've been contending with in the form of Iran, Russia, and so on. And one of the first things that the Biden administration did in the wake of Russia's attack was start sanctioning Russian banks and de-SWIFTing them. That's one thing when you're going after an economy smaller than the size of Texas; it's quite another when you consider that out of the 100 largest banks in the world, China has 20, and all four of the top four are Chinese banks. And that is why many within the Treasury contended when I was there, and they will contend to this day, that these Chinese banks are simply too big to sanction. I don't agree that we can allow that to stand but I do believe we have to start taking very swift action to put us in a situation where we could take punitive measures on these banks if necessary. 54:10 Dr. Carla Norrlöf: I will note that the Dollar's dominance is not quite as strong amongst private actors and private markets as it is with governments. In private transactions, it averages about 45% of the world's total. That includes FX transactions, but also things like issuance of international debt, securities, and cross-border banking. 54:55 Dr. Carla Norrlöf: The Chinese Yuan poses no immediate threat to dollar dominance. It accounts for roughly 3% of overall reserves. So far China has been successful in promoting the Yuan with its trade partners, but the Yuan is scarcely used by countries outside trade with China. China is a potential long term challenger due to its active pursuit of trade and investment relationships. If the Yuan is increasingly used by third countries, it will pose a greater threat to the dollar. 55:30 Dr. Carla Norrlöf: And in addition to these external threats, there is also a domestic threat. Flirting with the possibility of a voluntary default puts dollar dominance at risk. What should the US do to maintain dominance, to curb the domestic threat? Congress should consider creating an alternative mechanism for resolving political differences on government spending and its consequences. 56:00 Dr. Carla Norrlöf: To rein in external threats the United States should, whenever possible, implement multilateral sanctions in support of broadly endorsed goals to shore up the liberal international order. This is likely to limit dollar backlash. 59:40 Marshall Billingslea: The thing I do worry -- I come back to this fact that they've been buying a lot of gold -- that one of the things that they could do, which would be very concerning, if they wind up having larger reserves of gold than we believe, is they could start issuing Yuan or gold denominated, gold-backed Yuan contracts and that would further their ambition for introducing the Yuan onto the world stage. 1:05:00 Marshall Billingslea: China considers the actual composition of its foreign exchange reserves to be a state secret. So they don't publish and they they view it as a criminal offense to try to obtain that information in terms of the balance of how much is gold, how much Dollar or Euro denominated. But the numbers I've seen suggest that still at this moment, about 50% to 60% of their Foreign Exchange reserves are still in Dollars or Euros, which means that they are at high risk of sanctions; we can affect them. The problem is that that war chest that they've built up is enormous. It's more than $3 trillion that they have in Foreign Exchange reserves. Compare that with what Russia had at the onset of its assault, which was around $680 billion, of which we managed to freeze overseas half of it, but Russia is still keeping its economy going despite the Biden administration sanctions. So imagine how they're going to be able to continue with that sizable war kitty in Beijing if they do decide to go after the Taiwanese. 1:09:00 Dr. Tyler Goodspeed: Short term I think the risk is that we continue to see diversification away from the dollar, PRC continuing to push other countries to use trade inverse invoicing and Renminbi, that they continue to promote the offshore Renminbi market, that they continue to promote or force bilateral clearing. Longer term, I think the bigger risk is that foreign investors no longer perceive the United States federal government debt to be as safe and risk free as it is today perceived. 1:41:20 Dr. Daniel McDowell: The demonstration of US control over the actual flow of dollars, of communication, absolutely provides information to adversaries to prepare for events where they may face similar circumstances. And so I think what we're seeing is China, we're seeing Russia, we're seeing other countries try to create alternative payments networks. Russia has its own SPFS payment messaging system. It's quite small. It was launched in 2014, not coincidentally, after the initial round of sanctions targeting Russia. In terms of CIPS, China's cross border payments network, Belarus announced it was having banks join immediately following the 2022 sanctions. So what I'm saying is there's a pattern between when the United States mobilizes control over the pipes and the messaging of cross-border payments and adversaries looking for alternatives. It doesn't mean they're using them, but they're getting plugged into the system as at least sort of a rainy day option in the event of a future targeting. 1:45:35 Dr. Daniel McDowell: I look at China not just as a typical country, because I think they're an alternative service provider. Most countries fall into alternative service users; they're looking for an alternative to the dollar. China, you could perhaps put Europe in this as well, are the only two sort of economic BLOCs capable, I think, of constructing an attractive enough cross-border payments network that could attract those alternative service users that are looking for that network. And so that's why I think again, with China, there should be a higher bar of scrutiny. 2:02:20 Dr. Tyler Goodspeed: As deficits mount and as the debt burden rises above 100%, I think the Congressional Budget Office has it ending the budget window at about 119% of our economy, then we will probably observe an acceleration of diversification away from the dollar as a hedge. Again, I don't see another single currency displacing the dollar as the major international currency or as the major reserve currency, but continued diversification. International Financial Institutions in an Era of Great Power Competition May 25, 2023 House Financial Services Committee Watch on YouTube Witnesses: Jesse M. Schreger, Associate Professor of Business, Columbia Business School Mark Rosen, Partner, Advection Growth Capital and former Acting Executive Director, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Daniel F. Runde, Senior Vice President, Center for Strategic & International Studies(CSIS) Rich Powell, Chief Executive Officer, ClearPath & ClearPath Action Daouda Sembene, Distinguished Nonresident Fellow, CGD and CEO, AfriCatalyst Clips 39:55 Mark Rosen: The IMF is the global lender of last resort to countries that are in economic distress. IMF borrowers usually have a balance of payments problem, are running out of foreign exchange reserves, and so cannot meet their obligations. The IMF negotiates a set of economic policies with the borrower in government to alleviate the crisis, and, conditional on the government implementing the agreed policies, provides a loan in tranches, normally over a three year period. 41:00 Mark Rosen: The biggest challenge the IMF faces today is China which, as we've heard, has lent vast sums to emerging market and low income countries in a non-transparent and irresponsible manner. Many IMF members are now struggling to repay China. 42:05 Mark Rosen: The United States is the largest shareholder in the IMF and has veto power over certain key decisions and it's critical that the US continues to maintain its ownership of more than 15% which enables it to have this veto power. 42:20 Mark Rosen: China for some time, has been pressing for an increased quota share at the IMF. However, given its irresponsible lending, and then willingness to provide debt relief to developing countries, this is not the time to reward China with increased ownership at the Fund. Two other issues I'd like to focus on are anti-corruption and the catalytic role of the private sector in the work of the IMF. Corruption is a severe problem for many emerging market countries, which do not have strong institutions that can confront and root out corruption. The IMF is certainly doing a much better job than it did historically on anti-corruption, but I believe it's critical that it continues to make anti corruption laws and policies front and center in the conditions of its lending programs, as well as a focus of its technical assistance. Only by reducing corruption will many of these countries be able to attract the vast amount of private sector investment which is potentially available and remains the ultimate key to reducing poverty. Establishing a rule of law, including laws to protect private property is key to unlocking this investment. And it should be a focus of the IMF and World Bank to encourage these countries to improve the rule of law and to fight corruption. If they do that, emerging market countries can attract private capital and grow rapidly as many countries that have followed that path have already done so successfully. 44:45 Daniel Runde: Multilateral development banks, MDBs, under US and Western leadership are one way that we can respond with something. The United States built and strengthened the MDB system. MDBs provide money, advice, data and convening power to help developing countries solve problems. If the US exerts its influence over these institutions, they are forced multipliers of a US-led global system. If we disregard our leadership role, then other actors, including China, can exert influence over them. The World Bank Group is a series of institutions: it lends money to national governments, it has a private sector arm, and has an insurance arm. There are a series of other regional development bank's including the InterAmerican Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank -- Taiwan is a member of the Asian Development Bank -- the African Development Bank and the EBRD, the European Bank for Reconstruction Development Bank, focused mainly on countries that used to be behind the Iron Curtain. The United States has been instrumental in creating the majority of these institutions and remains the largest, or one of the largest, shareholders of every afformentioned MDB. Since the founding of these institutions, the US has used its shareholding power to shape the policies and activities of MDBs in indirect support of American foreign policy. 47:10 Daniel Runde: What role does China play in the MDBs? They're a shareholder. China continues to borrow from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. That is crazy. That needs to stop. China is a shareholder. Also, Chinese firms can bid on MDB projects. China wins a lot of in terms of dollar value, a lot of the dollar value of World Bank contracts. Something to take a look at. 47:35 Daniel Runde: How does the Belt and Road figure into the MDBs? You all have heard of the Belt and Road. Infrastructure is now a strategic issue. China's Belt and Road Initiative is a combination of construction and financing projects for roads, airports, and energy around the world. Unfortunately for us, BRI is an ambitious project that speaks to the hopes of China's friends and potential friends. To counter the BRI, the US needs a positive alternative that says more than, "Don't work with China." Right? That's not a strategy. We've got to have an alternative. 1:12:50 Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY): How do we end China's eligibility to borrow from the World Bank? Daniel Runde: The Asian Development Bank has said they're going to end their eligibility by 2025. We should absolutely hold them to that. There is a temptation for the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank to continue to loan for a couple of reasons. One is they say, "Well, this is a window into how we can understand China better." There's lots of other ways to understand China better. And or this is a way for us to -- for a bunch of lending reasons that they do it. You all have the power of the purse, you have an ability, I think you should have blunted conversations with the administration about this. I suspect it's an open door, but it's going to require, I think, some pushing from Congress. I would encourage this committee to push the administration on ending lending to China. 1:14:30 Jesse Schreger: So fundamentally right now, the Renminbi is not yet positioned to compete with the US dollar for a number of reasons. First and foremost, the reason that the dollar plays the role it does in the international financial system is it provides the global safe asset. You're confident, except for the upcoming debt ceiling, that you will always be paid back if you own US dollars. That's fundamentally what you know. When you contemplate investing in China and holding Chinese Renminbi as reserves, you're not necessarily sure that you're gonna be able to turn that piece of paper into the goods and services that you need or intervening in FX markets. 1:21:15 Jesse Schreger: First and foremost, what China is trying to do is essentially convince countries around the world that the Renminbi is an alternative asset to invoice your trade and to invest in. And so on the investment side, they've been working very hard to actually allow in foreign capital, encouraging foreign central banks to hold Renminbi denominated bonds as their reserves. And on the trade side, they're encouraging firms to invoice, basically price their goods, in Renminbi. There's a few areas in which they've had challenges there. So first, we actually don't know who are holding most of these Renminbi denominated assets. What you can see is after the US sanctioned Russia back in 2014, it was the Russian Central Bank that effectively announced they were moving out of US dollar denominated assets and into Renminbi, so they did that publicly. And so China has effectively been trying to attract foreign capital of that form and a lot of the reasons for that is that China finds itself vulnerable in the dollar-based financial system. And so what I would say the fundamental area in which the United States can assure the dominance of the dollar is making everyone understand that US Treasuries are the world's safe asset that there is no state of the world in which the United States can or will default. 2:03:25 Jesse Schreger: I think the real way in which people start being able to issue and borrow in Renminbi is when people start thinking in terms of the goods that they need to buy and consume are in Renminbi. Fundamentally, most countries around the world, if they issue a bond in Renminbi, the calculation they have to do is then "okay, I'm going to take my renminbi and convert it into US dollars to buy the thing in which I need." And so while actions in the US financial system are certainly going to affect other countries decisions to borrow in Renminbi, the kind of underlying challenges in Chinese financial markets and fundamentally the lack of goods priced and sold in Renminbi are going to continue to hold back kind of a growth of this market for a while. And in particular, the fact that many countries are reluctant to try to raise money inside of China's liquid onshore capital markets for, effectively, fear of capital controls. If you've raised renminbi in China, you can't get that out and to your projects the way you can if you raise money in the US in dollars. 2:14:55 Daniel Runde: The business model of the World Bank is they lend money to richer countries with a pretty good credit rating and then they cross subsidize that by lending to poor countries with a poor credit rating. My view is, China can finance its own development, we should stop this practice. I think the Asian Development Bank has sort of gotten the memo, but the World Bank has not fully gotten the memo and they'll give you kind of World Bank-y answers to this sort of thing. We got to stop it. Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA): Mr. Runde, I could not agree with you more. And you highlighted earlier, you know, by 2025, China should graduate from this program. I'd offer that 25 is two years too late. We can start funneling them off that now. Daniel Runde: I agree, sir. Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA): I think you're in the right spot. Thank you. Music Tired of Being Lied To by David Ippolito (found on Music Alley by mevio) Editing Pro Podcast Solutions Production Assistance Clare Kuntz Balcer Cover photo Eric Prouzet on Unsplash

This week, Mike and Jude are joined by Professor Peter Dean, Director of Foreign Policy and Defense at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, and the principal drafter of the Australian government's recent Defence Strategic Review, to discuss developments in Australia's defense planning.   The conversation begins with a discussion of the Defence Strategic Review and the significant shift in Australia's strategic outlook that it represents. Next, Mike, Jude and Peter discuss how the perceived sustainability of U.S. engagement in the region factors into Australian defense planning. They examine developments in Chinese military capabilities that Canberra is watching closely, and what responses might be demanded. They then consider the complications of executing a cultural transformation in Australia's defense forces and building national resilience. After turning briefly to Australia's relationship with Taiwan and potential reactions to a contingency in and around the Taiwan Strait, they conclude with a discussion of the evolving U.S.-Australia alliance and how its further development can underpin stability in the Indo-Pacific region.