Podcasts about United States Studies Centre

Our next guest is  Bruce Wolpe, Senior Fellow, US Study Centre, Latest from Washington DC; as Bruce, Nevena and Paul discuss the latest news from Washington and Trump’s upto. Bruce Wolpe is a Senior Fellow (non-resident) at the United States Studies Centre. Bruce is a regular contributor on US politics across media platforms in Australia. In recent years, Bruce has worked with the Democrats in Congress during President Barack Obama’s first term, and on the staff of Prime Minister Julia Gillard. He has also served as the former PM’s chief of staff. The Sydney Morning Herald reports that across the United States, parties are choosing their candidates for the midterm elections in November, and there is a shift among Democrats towards more relatable, practical solutions to lure swinging voters turned off by the party's elitist image at the last general election. USSC Non-Resident Senior Fellow Bruce Wolpe was quoted in the article on the upcoming midterms and what it could look like for US Democrats. https://www.ussc.edu.au/the-democrats-taking-the-fight-to-the-republicans The post Sat, 6th June, 2026: Bruce Wolpe, Senior Fellow, US Study Centre, Latest from Washington DC. appeared first on Saturday Magazine.

This week on Breaking Battlegrounds, Sam Stone is joined by Jonathan Butcher, Scot Mussi, Lou Perez, and John Lee to discuss higher education, Arizona school choice, comedy, culture, and Canada's euthanasia controversy. The show is then turned over to Chuck Warren  who sits down with Dr. John Lee for a one on one talk on China, Iran, critical minerals, and U.S. foreign policy. The episode wraps with B's Crime Corner and a disturbing true crime case unravleing in Ohio. Jonathan Butcher, Acting Director of the Center for Education Policy and Will Skillman Senior Research Fellow in Education Policy at The Heritage Foundation, joins the show to discuss his book Higher Education in America: It's Worse than You Think. Butcher breaks down the rising cost of college, the unclear pricing behind tuition, the role of federal student loans in tuition inflation, and the ideological imbalance on many campuses. He also discusses threats facing Jewish students, the impact of campus culture on young men and women, declining birth rates, and why lawmakers need to enforce the law on college campuses. The conversation also looks at trade schools, career readiness, and why America needs to rethink the idea that every student must follow the traditional college path. Want a copy of Jonathan Butcher's book, Higher Education in America: It's Worse than You Think? The first five listeners to DM the Breaking Battlegrounds Facebook page with "Higher Education in America" will receive a copy. Make sure to include your mailing address so we know where to send it. Follow Jonathan Butcher on X: @JM_Butcher Scot Mussi, President of the Arizona Free Enterprise Club, joins Sam to discuss the fight over Arizona's school choice program and a ballot initiative backed by the Washington, D.C. Teachers Union that could impact more than 100,000 students. Mussi explains why school choice matters for families, including students with special needs, and why the fight over education funding is becoming one of the biggest political battles in Arizona. He also discusses Republican enthusiasm ahead of the November midterm elections, border security, cost of living, local spending, municipal budget increases, tax burdens, and what conservatives need to do to turn voter enthusiasm into turnout. Follow Scot Mussi on X: @ScotMussi Follow Arizona Free Enterprise Club on X: @azfec Website: azfree.org Comedian, producer, and author Lou Perez joins the program to discuss a troubling medical assistance in dying case out of Canada involving a 45-year-old man with inflammatory bowel disease and mental health struggles who was assessed for euthanasia outside a Tim Hortons before dying without his family being informed. Lou and Sam discuss the ethical questions surrounding Canada's MAID system, the consequences for the doctor involved, and the documentary Better Off Dead, which examines euthanasia practices in Canada.  Follow Lou Perez on X: @LouPerez                                                                                              The second to last segment, host Chuck Warren sits down with Dr. John Lee for a wide-ranging foreign policy conversation on China, Trump's strategy, critical minerals, Iran, and America's alliances. Dr. Lee is a senior fellow at Hudson Institute, a senior fellow nonresident at the United States Studies Centre, and an adjunct professor at the University of Sydney. Lee discusses his article in The Hill, "After the Trump-G Summit, China, Not America, is on the Back Foot," and argues that the Trump administration's reindustrialization and rearming agenda has strengthened America's strategic position rather than weakened it. He explains why Xi Jinping is now operating from a less favorable position, why America's allies may need pressure to take defense more seriously, and why critical minerals have become a major national security priority after years of warning signs from Beijing. Dr. Lee also breaks down the Iran situation, arguing that a successful outcome for the United States would mean setting back Iran's nuclear ambitions and reducing its conventional military threat. He explains why China is a more rational negotiating actor than Iran, how regime security shapes Tehran's decision-making, and why the U.S.-Australia alliance remains strategically strong despite political tensions over Trump. Guest: John Lee Article: "After the Trump-G Summit, China, Not America, is on the Back Foot" in The Hill In the final segment, B's Crime Corner returns with a disturbing true crime case out of Ohio, where two parents were convicted after their 11-year-old son, who had Hirschsprung's disease, died in a hotel room after being denied medical treatment. B breaks down the case, the 15-year prison sentences, the unanswered questions, and the psychology behind parents who harm their own children. Tune in to Breaking Battlegrounds, the radio show covering the latest news, politics, culture, crime, and the stories shaping America.  Catch Breaking Battlegrounds live on 960 AM in Phoenix every Saturday at 9:00 AM, with full episodes and exclusive podcast-only segments dropping every Friday wherever you get your podcasts or watch on Youtube.  Stay connected with Breaking Battlegrounds: • Substack: https://substack.com/@breakingbattlegrounds • Website: https://breakingbattlegrounds.vote • News: https://breakingbattlegrounds.news • X: https://x.com/breaking_battle • Instagram: @breakingbattlegrounds • Facebook: Breaking Battlegrounds If you enjoy the show, please leave us a 5-star review and share it with a friend. Your support helps keep the podcast growing.

Bruce's piece is essentially an argument that America has become dangerously desensitised to the behaviour of President Donald Trump.  He argues that Trump's public conduct, language and social media behaviour now reveal a president in what he calls a “troubled state”, but that Republicans, the White House and much of the media have normalised it rather than confronting it. Bruce's latest article essentially argues that America has become dangerously desensitised to the behaviour of President Donald Trump. He argues that Trump's public conduct, language and social media behaviour now reveal a president in what he calls a “troubled state”, but that Republicans, the White House and much of the media have normalised it rather than confronting it. Wolpe says Trump oscillates between moments of apparent discipline — like his recent summit with Xi Jinping — and then immediately reverts to erratic, grievance-filled behaviour once out of the diplomatic spotlight. Bruce Wolpe is a Senior Fellow (non-resident) at the United States Studies Centre. Bruce is a regular contributor on US politics across media platforms in Australia. In recent years, Bruce has worked with the Democrats in Congress during President Barack Obama's first term, and on the staff of Prime Minister Julia Gillard. He has also served as the former PM's chief of staff. Bruce is author of Trump's Australia, an examination of Donald Trump's possible return to the presidency and the issues presented to Australia (Allen & Unwin, 2023), The Committee, a study of President Obama's legislative agenda in Congress (University of Michigan Press, 2018, 2d Edition September 2021) and Lobbying Congress: How The System Works (Congressional Quarterly Books, 1990, 1996). https://www.theage.com.au/national/an-oyster-farmer-a-firefighter-a-kennedy-the-democrats-taking-the-fight-to-the-republicans-20260521-p5zzm3.html https://www.axios.com/2026/05/22/trump-iran-meeting-resume-war-deal The post Sat, 23rd May, 2026: Bruce Wolpe, Senior Fellow, US Study Centre, Has Trump finally lost it and why is nobody calling him out ? appeared first on Saturday Magazine.

Welcome to the second episode of Diplomacy in Motion, a series produced in collaboration between Women in International Security Australia (WIIS-A) and the Young Diplomats Society. This series is about the moments when work in international affairs leaves the page and enters practice. While the field is underpinned by deep policy analysis, research, and bureaucratic process, there are points when that groundwork is tested in real time. Through conversations with international affairs professionals, we examine how decisions are made when negotiations are live, events move quickly, or stakes are high.In this episode, Poppy sits down with Jane Hardy — Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the United States Studies Centre and former Australian senior career diplomat. Over three decades, Jane served in seven Australian embassies across the Indo-Pacific, the United States, and Europe, including four at ambassador level. Her expertise spans US-Asia relations, Indo-Pacific security, arms control, and the Australia-US alliance. (edited) 

Within hours of the shooting, right outside where US President Donald Trump was dining at the Hilton Hotel in Washington, the American president was venting his anger. Not, notably, about the gunman firing shots in the lobby of the hotel. But at a journalist who read out what the suspected shooter allegedly thinks about Trump. Today Bruce Wolpe, a senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre, on why this shooting differs - in such a crucial and dangerous way - from the two attempts on Trump's life during the 2024 election campaign, and the reckoning that is now spreading throughout Washington as a result. Further reading: Inside the pandemonium at the Washington Hilton ‘Friendly Federal Assassin’: Alleged shooter’s manifesto says he was targeting Trump officials And just a note, after recording this episode, Cole Tomas Allen, was charged - on Tuesday, Australian time - with an attempted assassination of Donald Trump. According to a note Allan reportedly sent family members minutes before the attack, he believed that it was his duty to target Trump administration officials. Jeanine Pirro, the top federal prosecutor in Washington, has said that additional charges would be brought against him.Subscribe to The Age & SMH: https://subscribe.smh.com.au/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Within hours of the shooting, right outside where US President Donald Trump was dining at the Hilton Hotel in Washington, the American president was venting his anger. Not, notably, about the gunman firing shots in the lobby of the hotel. But at a journalist who read out what the suspected shooter allegedly thinks about Trump. Today Bruce Wolpe, a senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre, on why this shooting differs - in such a crucial and dangerous way - from the two attempts on Trump's life during the 2024 election campaign, and the reckoning that is now spreading throughout Washington as a result. Further reading: Inside the pandemonium at the Washington Hilton ‘Friendly Federal Assassin’: Alleged shooter’s manifesto says he was targeting Trump officials And just a note, after recording this episode, Cole Tomas Allen, was charged - on Tuesday, Australian time - with an attempted assassination of Donald Trump. According to a note Allan reportedly sent family members minutes before the attack, he believed that it was his duty to target Trump administration officials. Jeanine Pirro, the top federal prosecutor in Washington, has said that additional charges would be brought against him.Subscribe to The Age & SMH: https://subscribe.smh.com.au/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It has been seven weeks since the war involving the US, Israel, and Iran began, and while a fragile two-week ceasefire is currently in place, the world is holding its breath. Earlier this week, President Donald Trump threw a spanner in the works by announcing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical energy corridor, after initial peace talks in Pakistan reached an impasse over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Today, we're unpacking what this escalation means for your bottom line. With global oil prices surging, Australian airlines have already begun hiking fares and cutting domestic flight capacity to manage soaring fuel bills. Plus, we examine a historic breakthrough as Israel and Lebanon agree to their first direct negotiations in over 30 years. Director of Research from the United States Studies Centre, Jared Mondschein, joins us to discuss whether these high-stakes diplomatic moves will lead to lasting stability or a global recession.

Our next guest is a regular contributor and guest on Saturday Magazine, Bruce Wolpe, Snr Fellow, US Studies Centre. Misha also remained in the studio to discuss issues in the US with Bruce. Bruce Wolpe is a Senior Fellow (non-resident) at the United States Studies Centre. Bruce is a regular contributor on US politics across media platforms in Australia. In recent years, Bruce has worked with the Democrats in Congress during President Barack Obama’s first term, and on the staff of Prime Minister Julia Gillard. He has also served as the former PM’s chief of staff. From 1998-2009, Bruce was a senior executive at Fairfax Media in Sydney. Bruce is author of Trump’s Australia, an examination of Donald Trump’s possible return to the presidency and the issues presented to Australia (Allen & Unwin, 2023), The Committee, a study of President Obama’s legislative agenda in Congress (University of Michigan Press, 2018, 2d Edition September 2021) and Lobbying Congress: How The System Works (Congressional Quarterly Books, 1990, 1996). The post Sat, 11th April, 2026: Bruce Wolpe, Snr Fellow, US Studies Centre, Latest from Washington, Is Trump in Trouble? Melania’s Press Conference. appeared first on Saturday Magazine.

We know that US President Donald Trump is the ultimate decision maker when it comes to the war in Iran, but who's in his ear?From Pete Hegseth to Marco Rubio and JD Vance, they're each playing a role in executing or trying to explain the rationale for the controversial action in Iran. If the war can't be sold as a success in the end, who in Trump's cabinet will end up paying the price?Today, David Smith from the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney on Trump's team and whether any of them know what they're doing. Featured: David Smith, Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney

"His future as President politically rests on what happens, really, in the next 48 hours." US President Donald Trump has issued an ultimatum that could end the war with Iran, but how likely is it to actually work? Today, Senior Fellow at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney walks us through what the next few days of this conflict could look like both in the region, and further abroad.

In the aftermath of the Bondi massacre, state and federal governments have passed hate speech laws to help build social cohesion. But does banning phrases promote cohesion? Can any law mandate unity? Also in this episode, Christian Democrats in the US are making a major pitch to win religious votes. Will they pose a significant threat to Donald Trump at upcoming midterm elections?GUESTS:Kieran Hardy, Associate Professor in Griffith University's School of Criminology and Criminal Justice. He is co-author of: We can't coerce our way to social cohesion. Here's what else governments should be doing David Smith, Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney

Christian Democrats in the US are making a major pitch to win religious votes. Even with growing secularism, the US still has a big Christian majority and, for 40 years, Democrats have struggled to win their trust. But ahead of congressional elections in November, several white protestant clergy have announced they're running for the Democrats. One state politician and seminarian, James Talarico, is now the party's candidate for a Texas senate seat. GUEST:David Smith, Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney.

Bruce Wolpe is a Senior Fellow (non-resident) at the United States Studies Centre. Bruce is a regular contributor on US politics across media platforms in Australia. In recent years, Bruce has worked with the Democrats in Congress during President Barack Obama’s first term, and on the staff of Prime Minister Julia Gillard. He has also served as the former PM’s chief of staff. Bruce Wolpe is a Senior Fellow (non-resident) at the United States Studies Centre. Bruce is a regular contributor on US politics across media platforms in Australia. In recent years, Bruce has worked with the Democrats in Congress during President Barack Obama’s first term, and on the staff of Prime Minister Julia Gillard. He has also served as the former PM’s chief of staff. From 1998-2009, Bruce was a senior executive at Fairfax Media in Sydney. Bruce is author of Trump’s Australia, an examination of Donald Trump’s possible return to the presidency and the issues presented to Australia (Allen & Unwin, 2023), The Committee, a study of President Obama’s legislative agenda in Congress (University of Michigan Press, 2018, 2d Edition September 2021) and Lobbying Congress: How The System Works (Congressional Quarterly Books, 1990, 1996. In a recent article. Wolpe was quoted as saying, “Trump has a few weeks to renew voter confidence in him — and that’s amid a risk of unintended consequences like friendly fire incidents and American casualties”. “They’re going into a war in which most people don’t want,” he told SBS News from the United States. “I think there’s a burden on Trump, and he has to do a lot to get a better outcome as far as the standing with the American people.” “Trump came into office with the promise of an end to America’s cycle of forever wars. Before his election, he promised in 2024 to “turn the page forever on those foolish, stupid days of never-ending wars”. Now he’s seeking to justify a broad, open-ended war on Iran, though he initially projected the war on Iran to last four to five weeks. https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/trump-approval-iran-war/ac8wk6g8r The post Saturday, 7th March, 2026: Bruce Wolpe, Senior Fellow, US Study Centre, Do most Americans support the Iran action? AG Pam Bondi to testify on Epstein + Trump fires Kristy Noem appeared first on Saturday Magazine.

They tried to stop it happening, but Bill and Hillary Clinton had no choice in the end but to testify or face jail time.  The political power couple is being hauled before a US congressional investigation into late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.Today, David Smith from the United States Studies Centre at Sydney University on what we can expect from their depositions.   Featured: David Smith, associate professor at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney

Nevena and Macca are joined live on air by Bruce Wolpe, Senior Fellow, US Study Centre,  as they discuss New Australian Ambassador  to the US; escalation of ICE activity in Minnesota: Where now with Epstein files? Bruce Wolpe is a Senior Fellow (non-resident) at the United States Studies Centre. Bruce is a regular contributor on US politics across media platforms in Australia. In recent years, Bruce has worked with the Democrats in Congress during President Barack Obama’s first term, and on the staff of Prime Minister Julia Gillard. He has also served as the former PM’s chief of staff. Bruce’s most recent article for the ABC can be found here: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-01/stephen-miller-donald-trumps-immigration-policy-architect/106272938 The post Sat, 7th, Feb, 2026: Bruce Wolpe, Senior Fellow, US Study Centre, New Australian Ambassador  to the US; escalation of ICE activity in Minnesota: Where now with Epstein files? appeared first on Saturday Magazine.

There are three million files and thousands of mentions of Donald Trump.  But the US president says the latest batch of the Epstein files clears him, while the US Department of Justice says there's no need for any further investigation. But is that really the end of it? Today, David Smith from the United States Studies Centre at Sydney University on what the latest files mean for Trump and others and why millions of documents are still hidden. Featured: David Smith, associate professor at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney

Bruce Wolpe, Senior Fellow at the United States Studies Centre and author of 'Trump's Australia' Diana Mislov, Port Lincoln Mayor Matt Coulter, Botanic Gardens Horticultural Curator David Leach, Labor candidate for Kavel Matthew Jones, Insurance Council of Australia General Manager of Public Affairs Peter Caldicott, 7News Reporter Tim Neumann, Kadina Football Club President Peter Malinauskas, Premier of South Australia FIVEAA's Stacey Lee See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the first day of the new year, Donald Trump wrote on his social platform Truth Social, what he wanted for 2026. And I quote, “Peace, peace on earth”. Two days later, Trump invaded Venezuela. And now, the American president is threatening to invade at least four other countries. Today, Bruce Wolpe, senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre, and a former congressional staffer, on whether Trump’s imperialist aggression, and a recent mutiny of more than a dozen top-ranking MAGA members, might break his hold on power.Subscribe to The Age & SMH: https://subscribe.smh.com.au/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the first day of the new year, Donald Trump wrote on his social platform Truth Social, what he wanted for 2026. And I quote, “Peace, peace on earth”. Two days later, Trump invaded Venezuela. And now, the American president is threatening to invade at least four other countries. Today, Bruce Wolpe, senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre, and a former congressional staffer, on whether Trump’s imperialist aggression, and a recent mutiny of more than a dozen top-ranking MAGA members, might break his hold on power.Subscribe to The Age & SMH: https://subscribe.smh.com.au/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nevena and Macca are joined live on air by Bruce Wolpe-Snr Fellow US Study Centre, Donald Trump takes Venezuela – is Colombia next? Why does he want Greenland so much and what is this doing to world order? https://www.ussc.edu.au/trump-takes-out-maduro-but-can-the-democrats-take-out-trump “Deposing Maduro is one thing. But Trump's assertion throughout his press conference on the attack that the United States would be running Venezuela, and that the United States would take over Venezuela's oil industry to benefit the United States, was another. Was Trump going back to Bush-Obama nation-building and the forever wars he decried? While there are Trump MAGA isolationists not happy with this adventure, the clear military success of the mission has subdued their voices – for now. Bruce Wolpe is a Senior Fellow (non-resident) at the United States Studies Centre. Bruce is a regular contributor on US politics across media platforms in Australia. In recent years, Bruce has worked with the Democrats in Congress during President Barack Obama's first term, and on the staff of Prime Minister Julia Gillard. He has also served as the former PM's chief of staff. Bruce is author of Trump's Australia, an examination of Donald Trump's possible return to the presidency and the issues presented to Australia (Allen & Unwin, 2023), The Committee, a study of President Obama's legislative agenda in Congress (University of Michigan Press, 2018, 2d Edition September 2021) and Lobbying Congress: How The System Works (Congressional Quarterly Books, 1990, 1996). Trump's framing opened another front: between the president and the Democrats in Congress. But just like so many other times over the last year, the Democrats have less impact when they fire in multiple directions” The post Sat, 10th, Jan, 2026: Bruce Wolpe-Snr Fellow US Study Centre, Donald Trump takes Venezuela – is Colombia next? appeared first on Saturday Magazine.

Robert Ward hosts Ogi Hirohito, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Geoeconomics; Ito Ayano, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of ITO Strategy Company; and Tom Corben, Research Fellow at the United States Studies Centre. They discuss the increasing cooperation between Japan and the US in the defence industry.Together, they explore:  · How Takaichi and Trump might cooperate on US-Japan defence-industrial issues· The Takaichi government's new policies in relation to the defence industry· How the defence industry in Japan and the US views recent defence-industrial policy changes· Defence-industrial cooperation with third countries, through initiatives such as GCAP· How the US views defence-industrial cooperation with Japan and the effect of the upcoming US National Security Strategy on this Recommended materials from our guests:  · Alan Booth, The Roads to Sata,(London: Penguin, 2020), 336pp.· Tobias S Harris, The Iconoclast, (London: Hurst, 2023), 504pp.· Anno Hideki and Higuchi Shinji, Shin Gozilla, (Toho Co, 2016).We hope you enjoy the episode. Please follow, rate, and subscribe to Japan Memo on your preferred podcast platform. If you have any comments or questions, please contact us at japanchair@iiss.org.Date recorded: 4 November 2025Japan Memo is recorded and produced at the IISS in London. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The much-anticipated face-to-face meeting between Prime Minister Albanese and President Trump has happened, not in the Oval Office but the Cabinet Room of the White House. The PM will be very pleased with how it went, with only one major casualty – embarrassment for Australia's US Ambassador Kevin Rudd, after past tweets critical of the president were brought up, creating some awkwardness. To discuss the dynamics and outcomes of the meeting Darren welcomes Dr. Charles Edel to the podcast, a long overdue guest, and the best-placed individual anywhere to provide insight into these events, and the broader alliance relationship. Why was the meeting needed? While widely agreed to have gone well, what exactly made the meeting a success? What is the status of AUKUS now, and what about critical minerals? And, while he did not have a good time at the meeting, how has Kevin Rudd been an essential part of the process and key to its success? Charles is a senior adviser and the inaugural Australia Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He previously taught at the University of Sydney, where he was also a senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre. Prior to that, Charles was a professor of strategy and policy at the U.S. Naval War College and served on the U.S. secretary of state's Policy Planning Staff. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Charles Edel (bio): https://www.csis.org/people/charles-edel Abraham Denmark and Charles Edel, “The AUKUS Inflection: Seizing the Opportunity to Deliver Deterrence”, CSIS Australia Chair Report, August 2025: https://www.csis.org/analysis/aukus-inflection-seizing-opportunity-deliver-deterrence Annabel Crabbe, “When Donald Trump was ready to take his pound of flesh, Kevin Rudd was here to help”, ABC News, 21 October: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-21/trump-albanese-meeting-rudd-pound-of-flesh/105916336 Australian Industry Group, “Developing industry capability and partnerships for AUKUS Pillar 2”, Report, August 2025: https://www.aigroup.com.au/globalassets/news/reports/2025/ai_group_spg_report_aukus_pillar-ii.pdf Trent Dalton, Gravity let me go, (4th estate, 2025): https://www.harpercollins.com.au/9781460713334/gravity-let-me-go/

Sally and Macca are joined live on air by Bruce Wolpe, a Senior Fellow (non-resident) at the United States Studies Centre. Bruce is a contributor on US politics to Sky... LEARN MORE The post Saturday, 4th, October, 2025: Bruce Wolpe, The Conversation, Kamala Harris' ‘ideal' Vice President – and Why She Thinks She Lost' appeared first on Saturday Magazine.

The U.S. federal government has entered a shutdown, a few hours after the U.S. Senate failed to pass a short-term spending bill on Tuesday night US East Coast time. It's the first government shutdown in nearly seven years. The last and also the longest federal government shutdown occurred from late 2018 to early 2019 during President Trump's first term when Democrats opposed funding the U.S.-Mexico border wall. The result was a shutdown lasting over five weeks, during which some 800,000 federal employees were forced to work without pay or take unpaid leave. Hundreds of thousands of federal employees will be forced to take unpaid leave this time too, with some public services potentially suspended or delayed, and the release of economic data possibly impacted as well. Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the University of Sydney's United States Studies Centre and has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress. He's been speaking to SBS's Virginia Langeberg about the impact of the shutdown.

In this episode of All Things Policy, Vanshika Saraf is joined by Rushali Saha, a Maitri Fellow at the United States Studies Centre in Sydney. Together, they examine whether the Quad is beginning to drift in the choppy waters of the Indo-Pacific. Recent developments, from stalled trade talks to a sudden spike in visa fees, have tested the foundations of the India-US partnership. As these challenges unfold, what is India's diplomatic strategy? And can the Quad survive domestic churn within its member states? Tune in for a conversation on trust, transitions, and the wishful transience of it all.All Things Policy is a daily podcast on public policy brought to you by the Takshashila Institution, Bengaluru.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Find out more on our research and other work here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://takshashila.org.in/research-areas⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our public policy courses here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://school.takshashila.org.in⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

John Lee examines the critical decision President Trump faces on Iran's nuclear program, underscoring its profound implications for global stability. He critiques Australia's passive foreign policy, urging a robust defense strategy to counter emerging threats.Building on this, Lee examines power shifts in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific, pressing Australia to strengthen alliances with the U.S. and Japan. He warns of China's rapid military buildup and calls for strategic resolve to secure national interests, advocating for bold action to restore Australia's influence an increasingly volatile world.Dr John Lee is a Professor and Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute. He is also a senior fellow (non-resident) at the United States Studies Centre and Adjunct Professor at the University of Sydney. John's articles have been published in leading policy and academic journals in the United States, Asia, and Australia. 

Donald Trump is demanding America's allies massively boost defence spending and US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could be ‘imminent'.At the same time, the United Kingdom, one of Australia's closest allies, is rushing to invest billions of dollars in its defence force to make sure it's ‘war ready'.Today, Peter Dean from the United States Studies Centre at Sydney University on what that all means for us and whether our defence force is fit for purpose. Featured: Peter Dean, Director of Foreign Policy and Defence at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney

Darren welcomes Dr John Kunkel for the first time to the podcast. John is Senior Economics Adviser at the United States Studies Centre. He has worked as an economist, speech writer, policy analyst, adviser to government and industry executive. John is most well-known for being Chief of Staff to Prime Minister Scott Morrison from August 2018 to May 2022. From 2004 to 2007, he was also speech writer to Prime Minister John Howard.  John has the ideal background to discuss the current geopolitical and geoeconomic moment Australia faces. He holds a PhD in economics from ANU and understands why markets and openness have been essential to Australia's success. But as a PM's Chief of Staff, including during the COVID outbreak, John is well aware of the complexity of Australia's national interests, the difficult of making policy, and the challenges posed by China and, lately, Donald Trump's America. The conversation starts with President Trump and the United States, moves to China, and finishes at home on how Australia needs new thinking, and new policy processes, to navigate this moment in history. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode Corbin Duncan and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links John Kunkel (bio): https://www.ussc.edu.au/john-kunkel Adam Posen, “Trade wars are easy to lose”, Foreign Affairs, 9 April 2025: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/tariffs-trade-wars-are-easy-lose Yuval Levin Wikipedia page (author of “The Great Debate”, “The Fractured Republic” and “A Time to Build”): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuval_Levin Thomas Sowell, A Conflict of Visions (1987): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Conflict_of_Visions James Q Wilson, The Moral Sense (1993): https://www.simonandschuster.com.au/books/The-Moral-Sense/James-Q-Wilson/9780684833323 China Talk (podcast), “Ezra, Derek and Dan Wang”, 9 May 2025: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/abundance-and-antagonism

He dropped out of the presidential race last July, but the focus is now back on Joe Biden. The former US leader has not only been diagnosed with an aggressive form of prostate cancer, but a new book released this week has accused the White House of covering up a decline in his health before he stepped down to make way for Kamala Harris.  Today, Bruce Wolpe, a senior fellow from the United States Studies Centre on Biden's cancer diagnosis and why staying in the race for so long may have changed the course of history. Featured: Bruce Wolpe, a senior fellow from the United States Studies Centre

Donald Trump’s first 100 days back in the Oval Office have been anything but quiet, with sweeping immigration crackdowns, controversial executive orders, and a presidency that's reshaping both America and the world. To break it all down, we’re joined by Jared Mondschein from the United States Studies Centre. For more, head to news.com.auSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Data analyst Simon Jackman joins Democracy Sausage to chat about the polls, swing seats and how the global uncertainty is impacting this election. When did Labor's recovery start? How has uncertainty in the US influenced the framing of this election and left the Coalition vulnerable? And does this election cycle point to any changes in how the major parties operate? On this episode of Democracy Sausage, Professor Simon Jackman joins Professor Mark Kenny to talk about polling data and the AUS-US relationship. Join us Monday 28 April at Badger&Co on the ANU campus for a recording of Democracy Sausage in the pub. More information here: https://www.anu.edu.au/events/democracy-sausage-2025-live-election-special Simon Jackman is an independent data scientist and strategist. He is an Honorary Professor at the University of Sydney's United States Studies Centre and an elected fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia, and the Society for Political Methodology. Mark Kenny is the Director of the ANU Australian Studies Institute. He came to the University after a high-profile journalistic career including six years as chief political correspondent and national affairs editor for The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and The Canberra Times. Democracy Sausage with Mark Kenny is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts, Google Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. We'd love to hear your feedback on this series, so send in your questions, comments or suggestions for future episodes to democracysausage@anu.edu.au. This podcast is produced by The Australian National University. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Very senior members of the Trump administration have this week been caught mistakenly sharing secret plans to bomb the Houthi rebel group in Yemen with a journalist.It happened when the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic was added to a group chat on the popular messaging app Signal, in what appears to be a spectacular breach of US national security.Today, David Smith, from the United States Studies Centre on the great ‘Signalgate' scandal. Featured: David Smith, associate professor of American Politics and Foreign Policy at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney

In this episode: Gaza's fragile ceasefire crumbles, while efforts ramp up to reach one in Ukraine, and a major new military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen. Plus, Bruce Wolpe from the United States Studies Centre joins us to discuss concerns over the US constitution, and a dramatic splashdown for NASA two astronauts after being stuck in space.

Emile Donovan speaks to Professor Brendon O'Connor from the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney about the dramatic altercation between Trump and Zelensky.

Donald Trump's election victory has far-reaching implications for the clean energy sector and climate finance as a whole.Today, we jump in the time machine and take a look at the next four years under Trump, with our guest Lachlan Carey.Lachlan is a Washington-based expert on clean energy investment and a non-resident fellow at the United States Studies Centre. Opinions expressed are solely Lachlan Carey's own and do not express the views or opinions of his employer.This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: OP3 - https://op3.dev/privacy

To discuss the state of the contest and what comes next, we're joined by Bruce Wolpe, senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.

Dom Knight is joined by Dr Pepper himself, associate professor David Smith from USYD's United States Studies Centre, and PEP with Chas and Dr Dave. The two discuss Trump's bizarre McDonald's stunt, how close the polls are, and the current ploys from each candidate in the final two weeks of the race. You can lose the ads and get more content! Become a Chaser Report VIP member at http://apple.co/thechaser OR https://plus.acast.com/s/the-chaser-report. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

There's been a fair share of personal attacks and vitriol between US Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris as the US election nears. Many have become immune to vitriolic remarks in US politics, particularly from Trump, but why is this behaviour more common in US politics compared to Australia? SBS' Catriona Stirrat speaks to Associate Professor David Smith from the University of Sydney's United States Studies Centre for this edition of Weekend One on One.

What is the significance of rare earths and critical minerals for Australia and its partners? How does Australia's conception of critical minerals differ from its partners? How do critical minerals lists reflect how those states view resource supply chains and vulnerabilities? With China currently dominating the rare earths value chain, how can Australia protect its interests in this space?In this episode, Hayley Channer and John Mavrogenes join David Andrews to discuss critical minerals and rare earths and the geopolitical landscape surrounding them. Hayley Channer is Director, Economic Security at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. Professor John Mavrogenes is a Professor of Economic Geology at the ANU Research School of Earth Sciences. David Andrews is a Senior Policy Advisor at the ANU National Security College (NSC). TRANSCRIPTShow notes: NSC academic programs – find out more NSC's professional development program on rare earths and critical minerals Kim Beazley's call for a rare earths and critical minerals ‘Pillar 3' for AUKUS Jeff Wilson's paper on how the Quad could play a coordinating role in this space We'd love to hear from you! Send in your questions, comments, and suggestions to NatSecPod@anu.edu.au. You can tweet us @NSC_ANU and be sure to subscribe so you don't miss out on future episodes. The National Security Podcast is available on Acast, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bruce Wolpe joins us to talk about the US election, October surprises and the strategy and expectations shaping this month on the campaign trail. Can we expect a continuation of the ‘October surprise' tradition in the US election? How will foreign policy conditions, including rising tensions in the Middle East and ongoing war in Ukraine, influence votes? And which way will the swing states swing? On this episode of Democracy Sausage, Bruce Wolpe returns to give us the latest from the US election campaign. Bruce Wolpe is a Senior Fellow at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. He worked with the Democrats in the US Congress during President Barack Obama's first term, was a senior advisor for Prime Minister Julia Gillard, and the author of Trump's Australia. Mark Kenny is the Director of the ANU Australian Studies Institute. He came to the University after a high-profile journalistic career including six years as chief political correspondent and national affairs editor for The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age and The Canberra Times. Democracy Sausage with Mark Kenny is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts, Google Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. We'd love to hear your feedback on this series, so send in your questions, comments or suggestions for future episodes to democracysausage@anu.edu.au. This podcast is produced by The Australian National University. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On September 15 2021 Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced the agreement of both the US and the UK to supply Australia with nuclear-powered submarines. Following its election in 2022 the government of Anthony Albanese made clear that that AUKUS was supported by Labor. Is there now any significant difference between the defence policies of the Coalition and Labor? What exactly are the motives of the three governments involved in the AUKUS agreement--the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia? Speakers: Emeritus Professor Hugh White AO (Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University) Professor Peter Dean (Foreign Policy and Defence, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney) Professor Bec Strating (Director, La Trobe Asia) (Chair) Professor Theo Farrell (Vice Chancellor, La Trobe University) Recorded on 16th July, 2024.

United States Vice President Kamala Harris has begun her campaign for the presidency after President Joe Biden decided to drop out of the race following pressure from his party to step aside. President Biden has endorsed Ms Harris and she appears to be the likely Democratic nominee, but who exactly is she and what are her chances of winning the election? Sam Dover spoke with Bruce Wolpe a Senior Fellow at the United States Studies Centre.

To discuss the fast-changing US election and Kamala Harris moving to the top of the ticket we're joined by Lester Munson, a fellow with the United States Studies Centre.

Donald Trump is injured but has survived an assassination attempt while speaking at a rally in Pennsylvania. The shooting has shocked the United States, a country no stranger to political violence and gun crimes. Today, Associate Professor David Smith from the United States Studies Centre at Sydney University, on what has happened and what it means for November's presidential election.Featured: David Smith, Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy from the United States Studies Centre at Sydney University

Nightlife News Breakdown with Philip Clark, joined by Stephen Loosley, former Senator during the Hawke and Keating Governments and former Chair of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and former Senior Visiting Fellow of The United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney.

The former US president Donald Trump is a convicted criminal. A jury has found him guilty on all charges in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election through a hush money payment to a porn star who said the two had sex.  Will Donald Trump go to jail? Today, Bruce Wolpe, a senior fellow from the US Studies Centre and author of Trump's Australia on what it all means for the former president's campaign for the White House.Featured: Bruce Wolpe, senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre

Recent events in economic security (or, geoeconomics) have been dizzying, but exciting for Darren given this is his primary academic field. In Australia, the new budget delivered by the government plans over $20b of industry policy funding for a “Future Made in Australia”. Meanwhile in the US, the Biden Administration has sharply increased tariffs on Chinese goods focused on green energy. The US wants to cultivate domestic manufacturing, in part because it sees PRC dominance of green technology as a national security risk. This means there is a lot to discuss! In this episode Darren talks with Hayley Channer. who is the Director of the Economic Security Program with the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. Hayley has a diverse background having worked as an Australian Government official, Ministerial adviser, think tank analyst, and represented global non-profit organisations. Prior to her current role, Hayley was a Senior Policy Fellow with the Perth USAsia Centre and, amongst other accolades, was awarded a Fulbright Scholarship in 2022. This lengthy discussion covers the goals of economic security policy and the inherent trade-offs in this domain, particularly in the context of both Australia's and the US' emerging industrial policy efforts, as well as the problem of responding to economic coercion. Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Walter Colnaghi and theme music composed by Rory Stenning. Relevant links Hayley Channer (bio): https://www.ussc.edu.au/hayley-channer Anthony Albanese, “A future made in Australia”, Speech, 11 April 2024: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/future-made-australia Jim Chalmers, “Economic security and the Australian opportunity in a world of churn and change”, Speech at Lowy Institute, 1 May 2024: https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/speeches/address-lowy-institute-sydney Hayley Channer and Georgia Edmonstone, “What does ‘economic security' mean to Australia in 2024?”, US Studies Centre Brief, 30 January 2024: https://www.ussc.edu.au/what-does-economic-security-mean-to-australia-in-2024 Lim, D. (2019). Economic statecraft and the revenge of the state. East Asia Forum Quarterly, 11(4), 31–32: https://eastasiaforum.org/2019/12/04/economic-statecraft-and-the-revenge-of-the-state/ Ferguson, Victor A., Darren J. Lim, and Benjamin Herscovitch. “Between Market and State: The Evolution of Australia's Economic Statecraft.” The Pacific Review 36, no. 5 (September 3, 2023): 1148–80. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2023.2200026 Victor A. Ferguson, Scott Waldron and Darren J. Lim (2022), “Market Adjustments to Import Sanctions: Lessons from Chinese Restrictions on Australian Trade, 2020-21”, Review of International Political Economy”, http://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2022.2090019 Darren J. Lim, Benjamin Herscovitch, and Victor A. Ferguson, “Australia's Reassessment of Economic Interdependence with China”, in Strategic Asia (2023): https://www.nbr.org/publication/australias-reassessment-of-economic-interdependence-with-china/ Leading (podcast), “Speaking Truth to Trump | Former Head of Trump's Communications, Anthony Scaramucci”, 21 February 2024: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=juvfEZsZqUY&list=PL_6zDbB-zRef_M7eXuSLUlGnt7qk66hJq&index=9 Abhijit V. Banerjee, Esther Duflo, Good economics for hard times: Better answers to our biggest problems (2019): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/51014619-good-economics-for-hard-times (Goodreads page) Dani Rodrik, “Don't Fret About Green Subsidies”, Project Syndicate, 10 May 2024: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/green-subsidies-justified-on-economic-environmental-and-moral-grounds-by-dani-rodrik-2024-05

Donald Trump is known for being the loudest, most controversial and outburst-prone politician of our time.  Now, a judge has issued a gag order against him in an attempt to prevent further outbursts. Can Donald Trump really be told to be quiet? And will orders from the courts begin to hamper his chances of being re-elected as president? Today, senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre and author of Trump's Australia Bruce Wolpe, on whether Trump's legal battles are finally catching up with him. Socials: Stay in touch with us on Twitter and Instagram Guest: Senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre, and author of Trump's Australia, Bruce Wolpe

Mike is joined by Dr. John Kunkel, Senior Economics Adviser at the United States Studies Centre. Dr. Kunkel has worked as an economist, speech writer, policy analyst, and adviser to government and industry executive and previously served as Chief of Staff to Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison. He has a PhD in Economics from the Australian National University and is the author of "America's Trade Policy Towards Japan: Demanding Results", a study of US-Japan trade relations from Reagan to Clinton.  The conversation begins by placing the Australian economy amid the shifting economic order of recent years. Mike and John note that the contemporary Australian debate has come late in adapting to these global economic changes, partially due to the country's large resource base and overall economic resilience and flexibility. They discuss the unique position of Australia's experience with globalization, which allowed it to avoid the worst of the domestic economic drawbacks that afflicted Europe and the United States. They then delve into the impact of ‘Bidenomics' and US industrial policy on the economic debate in Australia, assessing how Australia is looking at these more protectionist policies to understand both the wrinkles and opportunities they present. After a discussion of evolving global economic dynamics and what a new American trade agenda should look like, they conclude by discussing an upcoming economic security conference in Australia, which is targeted at interpreting different international economic security policies, and tracking how these are transitioning over time. 

The U.S. dollar's status as the global reserve currency is diminishing, which reduces the power that U.S. leaders have over the global economic system. In this episode, hear highlights from recent Congressional testimony during which financial elites examine the current status of the global financial system and what Congress is being told to do to address perceived threats to it (and to their own power). Please Support Congressional Dish – Quick Links Contribute monthly or a lump sum via PayPal Support Congressional Dish via Patreon (donations per episode) Send Zelle payments to: Donation@congressionaldish.com Send Venmo payments to: @Jennifer-Briney Send Cash App payments to: $CongressionalDish or Donation@congressionaldish.com Use your bank's online bill pay function to mail contributions to: 5753 Hwy 85 North, Number 4576, Crestview, FL 32536. Please make checks payable to Congressional Dish Thank you for supporting truly independent media! View the show notes on our website at https://congressionaldish.com/cd276-the-demise-of-dollar-dominance Background Sources Recommended Congressional Dish Episodes CD269: NDAA 2023/Plan Ecuador CD230: Pacific Deterrence Initiative CD195: Yemen CD187: Combating China CD102: The World Trade Organization: COOL? International Monetary Fund “IMF Financial Activities List 2023.” Updated June 21, 2023. International Monetary Fund. “Weekly Report on Key Financial Statistics.” June 9, 2023. International Monetary Fund. “IMF Lending.” Updated December 2022. International Monetary Fund. Argentina “Argentina: Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding” October 17, 2018. International Monetary Fund. “Argentina Policy Memorandum.” January 11, 1999. International Monetary Fund. Ecuador “Ecuador—Supplementary Letter of Intent.” March 13, 2003. International Monetary Fund. Smaller Banks within the World Trade System International Finance Corporation China “Members and Observers.” World Trade Organization. “ China and the WTO.” World Trade Organization. “From ‘China Shock' to deglobalisation shock: China's WTO accession and US economic engagement 20 years on.” Stephen Kirchner. January 24, 2022. United States Studies Centre. “The China Reckoning: How Beijing Defied American Expectations.” Kurt M. Campbell and Ely Ratner. February 13, 2018. Foreign Affairs. The World Bank “Who can borrow from the World Bank?” December 10, 2020. Bretton Woods Observer. “Domination of the United States on the World Bank.” Eric Toussaint. April 2, 2020. Committee for the Abolition of Illegitimate Debt. “Why Is the World Bank Still Lending to China?” Yukon Huang. January 15, 2020. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Congressional Stock Trade Tracking Quiver Quantitative Unusual Whales US Abuse of Sanctions “The Other Counteroffensive to Save Ukraine.” Lawrence Summers et. al. June 15, 2023. Foreign Affairs. Allies Pivoting “Europe must resist pressure to become ‘America's followers,' says Macron.” Jamil Anderlini and Clea Caulcutt. April 9, 2023. Politico. “US State Dept backs latest raft of Saudi, UAE, Jordan arms sales.” February 2, 2022. Al Jazeera. Witnesses Mark Rosen on Linkedin Daniel F. Runde on Linkedin “Membership Roster.” Accessed June 24, 2023. Council on Foreign Relations. Tyler Goodspeed on Linkedin Carla Norrlof - “Board of Directors.” Atlantic Council. Daniel McDowell bio Marshall Billingslea on Linkedin Audio Sources Dollar Dominance: Preserving the U.S. Dollar's Status as the Global Reserve Currency June 7, 2023 House Financial Services Committee Watch on YouTube Witnesses: Dr. Tyler Goodspeed, Kleinheinz Fellow, Hoover Institution at Stanford University Dr. Michael Faulkender, Dean's Professor of Finance, Robert H. Smith School of Business at University of Maryland Dr. Daniel McDowell, Associate Professor, Maxwell School of Citizenship & Public Affairs at Syracuse University Marshall Billingslea, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute Dr. Carla Norrlöf, Senior Fellow, The Atlantic Council and Professor, University of Toronto Clips 34:05 Dr. Tyler Goodspeed: In 2022, as the Ranking Member highlighted, 88% of all foreign exchange transactions by value involved the United States Dollar, a figure that has been roughly constant since 1989, which is testament to the substantial path dependence in international currency usage due to large positive network externalities. As the Ranking Member also highlighted, 59% of all official foreign exchange reserves were held in US dollars, which is down from a figure of 71.5% in 2001. By comparison 31% of all foreign exchange transactions by value involve the Euro, which is the second most commonly transacted currency, which accounted for 20% of official foreign exchange reserves. 34:50 Dr. Tyler Goodspeed: The fact that 90% of all foreign exchange transactions continue to involve the United States dollar, and that global central banks continue to hold almost 60% of their foreign exchange reserves in US dollars confers net economic benefits on the United States economy. First, foreign demand for reserves of US dollars raises demand for dollar denominated securities, in particular United States Treasury's. This effectively lowers the cost of borrowing for US households, US companies, and federal, state and local governments. It also means that on average, the United States earns more on its investments in foreign assets than we have to pay on foreign investments in the United States, which allows the United States to import more goods and services than we export. Second, foreign demand for large reserves of US dollars and dollar denominated assets raises the value of the dollar and a stronger dollar benefits us consumers and businesses that are net importers of goods and services from abroad. Third, large reserve holdings of US currency abroad in effect constitutes an interest free loan to the United States worth about $10 to $20 billion per year. Fourth, the denomination of the majority of international transactions in US dollars likely modestly lowers the exchange rate risks faced by US companies. Fifth, the given the volume of foreign US dollar holdings and dollar denominated debt, monetary policy actions by foreign central banks generally have a smaller impact on financial conditions in the United States than actions by the United States Central Bank have on financial conditions in other countries. 36:40 Dr. Tyler Goodspeed: However, the benefits of the US dollar's global reserve status are not without costs. The lower interest rates in the United States benefit US borrowers, especially the federal government. They also lower returns to US savers. In addition, though a stronger dollar benefits US consumers and businesses that net import goods and services from abroad, it does also disadvantage US firms that export goods and services abroad as well as firms that compete against imported goods and services. Furthermore, the perception of the US dollar as a safe haven asset means that demand for the dollar tends to increase in response to adverse macroeconomic events that are global in nature. As a result, the competitiveness of US exporters and US firms that compete against imported goods and services are likely to face an increased competitive disadvantage at times of elevated global macroeconomic stress. 37:35 Dr. Tyler Goodspeed: However, despite these costs, studies generally find that the economic benefits of the dollar's prominent global status outweigh the costs, providing a modest net benefit to the United States economy. This does not include the substantial benefit to which the chairman referred of the United States dollar's centrality in global transactions, allowing the United States to utilize financial sanction tools when appropriate in support of national security objectives. 44:50 Dr. Daniel McDowell: With little more than the stroke of the President's pen or through an Act of Congress, the US government can use financial sanctions to impose enormous economic costs on targeted foreign actors, be they individuals, firms, or state institutions, by freezing their dollar assets or cutting them off from access to the banks through which those dollars flow. The consequences for individual targets, known as specially designated nationals or SDNs, are severe, significantly impairing targets capacity to participate in international trade, investment, debt repayment, and depriving them of access to their wealth. Over the last two decades, the United States has used the tool of financial sanctions with increasing frequency. For example, in the year 2000, just four foreign governments were directly targeted under a US Treasury Country Program overseen by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). Today that number is greater than 20, and if we include penalties from secondary sanctions the list gets even longer. The more that the United States has reached for financial sanctions, the more it has made adversaries and foreign capitals aware of the strategic vulnerability that stems from dependence on the dollar. Some governments have responded by implementing anti-dollar policies measures that are designed to reduce an economy's reliance on the US currency for investment in cross-border transactions. But these measures sometimes fail to achieve their goals. Others have produced modest levels of de-dollarization. Notable examples here include Russian steps to cut its dollar reserves and reduce the use of the dollar and trade settlement in the years leading up to its full scale invasion of Ukraine, or China's ongoing efforts to build its own international payments network based on the Yuan, efforts that have taken on a new sense of urgency as Beijing has become more aware of its own strategic vulnerabilities from Dollar dependence. 47:05 Dr. Daniel McDowell: The United States should reconsider the use of so-called symbolic financial sanctions. That is, if the main objective of a tranche of sanctions is to signal to the world or to a domestic audience that Washington disapproves of a foreign government's policy choices, other measures that can send a similar signal but do not politicize the dollar system ought to be considered first. Second, the use of financial sanctions against issuers of potential rival currencies in particular, China and its Yuan should face a higher bar of scrutiny. Even a small targeted sanctions program provides information to our adversaries about their vulnerabilities, and gives them time to prepare for a future event when a broad US sanctions program may be called upon as part of a major security crisis, when such measures will be most needed. Finally, whenever possible, US financial sanctions should be coordinated with our allies in Europe and Asia, who should feel as if they are key stakeholders in the dollar system and not vassals to it. Such coordinated efforts will prevent our friends from seeking to conduct business with U.S. adversaries outside of the dollar system and send a message to the whole world that moving activities into secondary currencies, like the Euro or the Yen, is not a safe haven. 48:35 Marshall Billingslea: I'll say at the outset that I agree with you and others that to paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of the dollar's demise have been greatly exaggerated. That said, we need to remind ourselves that in the 16th century the Spanish silver dollar was the dominant currency, in the 17th century it was Dutch florins, in the 18th century it was the pound sterling. The link between a nation's currency and its role as the relatively dominant political actor on the world stage is pretty clear. And that is why people like Lula from Brazil, Putin and Xi all aspire to undercut the role of the dollar as the global reserve currency. 50:00 Marshall Billingslea: If we look at what Russia did in the run-up to its further invasion of Ukraine, they began dumping ownership of treasury bonds in 2018. In that year, they plummeted from $96 billion and holdings down to $15 billion and they also started buying large amounts of gold. China is now, as the Ranking Member has observed, embarking on its own its own gold buying spree. I haven't seen the data for May, but April marked the sixth straight month of Chinese expansion in its gold holdings, and I'm not sure I believe the official figures. We have to recall that China is the dominant gold mining player around the world and half of those gold mining companies are state-owned. So the actual size of China's war chest when it comes to gold reserves may be far higher. In fact, I suspect inevitably far higher than official numbers suggest. Last year China also started dumping its treasuries. 2022 marked the largest or second largest decrease on record, with a drop of about $174 billion, and China stood at the lowest level since 2010. In terms of its holdings, though, this past March they did reverse course. This bears close watching because a sell-off may be a strong indicator of planned aggression. 51:20 Marshall Billingslea: The sheer size of the Chinese economy dwarfs what we've been contending with in the form of Iran, Russia, and so on. And one of the first things that the Biden administration did in the wake of Russia's attack was start sanctioning Russian banks and de-SWIFTing them. That's one thing when you're going after an economy smaller than the size of Texas; it's quite another when you consider that out of the 100 largest banks in the world, China has 20, and all four of the top four are Chinese banks. And that is why many within the Treasury contended when I was there, and they will contend to this day, that these Chinese banks are simply too big to sanction. I don't agree that we can allow that to stand but I do believe we have to start taking very swift action to put us in a situation where we could take punitive measures on these banks if necessary. 54:10 Dr. Carla Norrlöf: I will note that the Dollar's dominance is not quite as strong amongst private actors and private markets as it is with governments. In private transactions, it averages about 45% of the world's total. That includes FX transactions, but also things like issuance of international debt, securities, and cross-border banking. 54:55 Dr. Carla Norrlöf: The Chinese Yuan poses no immediate threat to dollar dominance. It accounts for roughly 3% of overall reserves. So far China has been successful in promoting the Yuan with its trade partners, but the Yuan is scarcely used by countries outside trade with China. China is a potential long term challenger due to its active pursuit of trade and investment relationships. If the Yuan is increasingly used by third countries, it will pose a greater threat to the dollar. 55:30 Dr. Carla Norrlöf: And in addition to these external threats, there is also a domestic threat. Flirting with the possibility of a voluntary default puts dollar dominance at risk. What should the US do to maintain dominance, to curb the domestic threat? Congress should consider creating an alternative mechanism for resolving political differences on government spending and its consequences. 56:00 Dr. Carla Norrlöf: To rein in external threats the United States should, whenever possible, implement multilateral sanctions in support of broadly endorsed goals to shore up the liberal international order. This is likely to limit dollar backlash. 59:40 Marshall Billingslea: The thing I do worry -- I come back to this fact that they've been buying a lot of gold -- that one of the things that they could do, which would be very concerning, if they wind up having larger reserves of gold than we believe, is they could start issuing Yuan or gold denominated, gold-backed Yuan contracts and that would further their ambition for introducing the Yuan onto the world stage. 1:05:00 Marshall Billingslea: China considers the actual composition of its foreign exchange reserves to be a state secret. So they don't publish and they they view it as a criminal offense to try to obtain that information in terms of the balance of how much is gold, how much Dollar or Euro denominated. But the numbers I've seen suggest that still at this moment, about 50% to 60% of their Foreign Exchange reserves are still in Dollars or Euros, which means that they are at high risk of sanctions; we can affect them. The problem is that that war chest that they've built up is enormous. It's more than $3 trillion that they have in Foreign Exchange reserves. Compare that with what Russia had at the onset of its assault, which was around $680 billion, of which we managed to freeze overseas half of it, but Russia is still keeping its economy going despite the Biden administration sanctions. So imagine how they're going to be able to continue with that sizable war kitty in Beijing if they do decide to go after the Taiwanese. 1:09:00 Dr. Tyler Goodspeed: Short term I think the risk is that we continue to see diversification away from the dollar, PRC continuing to push other countries to use trade inverse invoicing and Renminbi, that they continue to promote the offshore Renminbi market, that they continue to promote or force bilateral clearing. Longer term, I think the bigger risk is that foreign investors no longer perceive the United States federal government debt to be as safe and risk free as it is today perceived. 1:41:20 Dr. Daniel McDowell: The demonstration of US control over the actual flow of dollars, of communication, absolutely provides information to adversaries to prepare for events where they may face similar circumstances. And so I think what we're seeing is China, we're seeing Russia, we're seeing other countries try to create alternative payments networks. Russia has its own SPFS payment messaging system. It's quite small. It was launched in 2014, not coincidentally, after the initial round of sanctions targeting Russia. In terms of CIPS, China's cross border payments network, Belarus announced it was having banks join immediately following the 2022 sanctions. So what I'm saying is there's a pattern between when the United States mobilizes control over the pipes and the messaging of cross-border payments and adversaries looking for alternatives. It doesn't mean they're using them, but they're getting plugged into the system as at least sort of a rainy day option in the event of a future targeting. 1:45:35 Dr. Daniel McDowell: I look at China not just as a typical country, because I think they're an alternative service provider. Most countries fall into alternative service users; they're looking for an alternative to the dollar. China, you could perhaps put Europe in this as well, are the only two sort of economic BLOCs capable, I think, of constructing an attractive enough cross-border payments network that could attract those alternative service users that are looking for that network. And so that's why I think again, with China, there should be a higher bar of scrutiny. 2:02:20 Dr. Tyler Goodspeed: As deficits mount and as the debt burden rises above 100%, I think the Congressional Budget Office has it ending the budget window at about 119% of our economy, then we will probably observe an acceleration of diversification away from the dollar as a hedge. Again, I don't see another single currency displacing the dollar as the major international currency or as the major reserve currency, but continued diversification. International Financial Institutions in an Era of Great Power Competition May 25, 2023 House Financial Services Committee Watch on YouTube Witnesses: Jesse M. Schreger, Associate Professor of Business, Columbia Business School Mark Rosen, Partner, Advection Growth Capital and former Acting Executive Director, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Daniel F. Runde, Senior Vice President, Center for Strategic & International Studies(CSIS) Rich Powell, Chief Executive Officer, ClearPath & ClearPath Action Daouda Sembene, Distinguished Nonresident Fellow, CGD and CEO, AfriCatalyst Clips 39:55 Mark Rosen: The IMF is the global lender of last resort to countries that are in economic distress. IMF borrowers usually have a balance of payments problem, are running out of foreign exchange reserves, and so cannot meet their obligations. The IMF negotiates a set of economic policies with the borrower in government to alleviate the crisis, and, conditional on the government implementing the agreed policies, provides a loan in tranches, normally over a three year period. 41:00 Mark Rosen: The biggest challenge the IMF faces today is China which, as we've heard, has lent vast sums to emerging market and low income countries in a non-transparent and irresponsible manner. Many IMF members are now struggling to repay China. 42:05 Mark Rosen: The United States is the largest shareholder in the IMF and has veto power over certain key decisions and it's critical that the US continues to maintain its ownership of more than 15% which enables it to have this veto power. 42:20 Mark Rosen: China for some time, has been pressing for an increased quota share at the IMF. However, given its irresponsible lending, and then willingness to provide debt relief to developing countries, this is not the time to reward China with increased ownership at the Fund. Two other issues I'd like to focus on are anti-corruption and the catalytic role of the private sector in the work of the IMF. Corruption is a severe problem for many emerging market countries, which do not have strong institutions that can confront and root out corruption. The IMF is certainly doing a much better job than it did historically on anti-corruption, but I believe it's critical that it continues to make anti corruption laws and policies front and center in the conditions of its lending programs, as well as a focus of its technical assistance. Only by reducing corruption will many of these countries be able to attract the vast amount of private sector investment which is potentially available and remains the ultimate key to reducing poverty. Establishing a rule of law, including laws to protect private property is key to unlocking this investment. And it should be a focus of the IMF and World Bank to encourage these countries to improve the rule of law and to fight corruption. If they do that, emerging market countries can attract private capital and grow rapidly as many countries that have followed that path have already done so successfully. 44:45 Daniel Runde: Multilateral development banks, MDBs, under US and Western leadership are one way that we can respond with something. The United States built and strengthened the MDB system. MDBs provide money, advice, data and convening power to help developing countries solve problems. If the US exerts its influence over these institutions, they are forced multipliers of a US-led global system. If we disregard our leadership role, then other actors, including China, can exert influence over them. The World Bank Group is a series of institutions: it lends money to national governments, it has a private sector arm, and has an insurance arm. There are a series of other regional development bank's including the InterAmerican Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank -- Taiwan is a member of the Asian Development Bank -- the African Development Bank and the EBRD, the European Bank for Reconstruction Development Bank, focused mainly on countries that used to be behind the Iron Curtain. The United States has been instrumental in creating the majority of these institutions and remains the largest, or one of the largest, shareholders of every afformentioned MDB. Since the founding of these institutions, the US has used its shareholding power to shape the policies and activities of MDBs in indirect support of American foreign policy. 47:10 Daniel Runde: What role does China play in the MDBs? They're a shareholder. China continues to borrow from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. That is crazy. That needs to stop. China is a shareholder. Also, Chinese firms can bid on MDB projects. China wins a lot of in terms of dollar value, a lot of the dollar value of World Bank contracts. Something to take a look at. 47:35 Daniel Runde: How does the Belt and Road figure into the MDBs? You all have heard of the Belt and Road. Infrastructure is now a strategic issue. China's Belt and Road Initiative is a combination of construction and financing projects for roads, airports, and energy around the world. Unfortunately for us, BRI is an ambitious project that speaks to the hopes of China's friends and potential friends. To counter the BRI, the US needs a positive alternative that says more than, "Don't work with China." Right? That's not a strategy. We've got to have an alternative. 1:12:50 Rep. Andy Barr (R-KY): How do we end China's eligibility to borrow from the World Bank? Daniel Runde: The Asian Development Bank has said they're going to end their eligibility by 2025. We should absolutely hold them to that. There is a temptation for the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank to continue to loan for a couple of reasons. One is they say, "Well, this is a window into how we can understand China better." There's lots of other ways to understand China better. And or this is a way for us to -- for a bunch of lending reasons that they do it. You all have the power of the purse, you have an ability, I think you should have blunted conversations with the administration about this. I suspect it's an open door, but it's going to require, I think, some pushing from Congress. I would encourage this committee to push the administration on ending lending to China. 1:14:30 Jesse Schreger: So fundamentally right now, the Renminbi is not yet positioned to compete with the US dollar for a number of reasons. First and foremost, the reason that the dollar plays the role it does in the international financial system is it provides the global safe asset. You're confident, except for the upcoming debt ceiling, that you will always be paid back if you own US dollars. That's fundamentally what you know. When you contemplate investing in China and holding Chinese Renminbi as reserves, you're not necessarily sure that you're gonna be able to turn that piece of paper into the goods and services that you need or intervening in FX markets. 1:21:15 Jesse Schreger: First and foremost, what China is trying to do is essentially convince countries around the world that the Renminbi is an alternative asset to invoice your trade and to invest in. And so on the investment side, they've been working very hard to actually allow in foreign capital, encouraging foreign central banks to hold Renminbi denominated bonds as their reserves. And on the trade side, they're encouraging firms to invoice, basically price their goods, in Renminbi. There's a few areas in which they've had challenges there. So first, we actually don't know who are holding most of these Renminbi denominated assets. What you can see is after the US sanctioned Russia back in 2014, it was the Russian Central Bank that effectively announced they were moving out of US dollar denominated assets and into Renminbi, so they did that publicly. And so China has effectively been trying to attract foreign capital of that form and a lot of the reasons for that is that China finds itself vulnerable in the dollar-based financial system. And so what I would say the fundamental area in which the United States can assure the dominance of the dollar is making everyone understand that US Treasuries are the world's safe asset that there is no state of the world in which the United States can or will default. 2:03:25 Jesse Schreger: I think the real way in which people start being able to issue and borrow in Renminbi is when people start thinking in terms of the goods that they need to buy and consume are in Renminbi. Fundamentally, most countries around the world, if they issue a bond in Renminbi, the calculation they have to do is then "okay, I'm going to take my renminbi and convert it into US dollars to buy the thing in which I need." And so while actions in the US financial system are certainly going to affect other countries decisions to borrow in Renminbi, the kind of underlying challenges in Chinese financial markets and fundamentally the lack of goods priced and sold in Renminbi are going to continue to hold back kind of a growth of this market for a while. And in particular, the fact that many countries are reluctant to try to raise money inside of China's liquid onshore capital markets for, effectively, fear of capital controls. If you've raised renminbi in China, you can't get that out and to your projects the way you can if you raise money in the US in dollars. 2:14:55 Daniel Runde: The business model of the World Bank is they lend money to richer countries with a pretty good credit rating and then they cross subsidize that by lending to poor countries with a poor credit rating. My view is, China can finance its own development, we should stop this practice. I think the Asian Development Bank has sort of gotten the memo, but the World Bank has not fully gotten the memo and they'll give you kind of World Bank-y answers to this sort of thing. We got to stop it. Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA): Mr. Runde, I could not agree with you more. And you highlighted earlier, you know, by 2025, China should graduate from this program. I'd offer that 25 is two years too late. We can start funneling them off that now. Daniel Runde: I agree, sir. Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA): I think you're in the right spot. Thank you. Music Tired of Being Lied To by David Ippolito (found on Music Alley by mevio) Editing Pro Podcast Solutions Production Assistance Clare Kuntz Balcer Cover photo Eric Prouzet on Unsplash