Podcasts about btfp

Will the BTFP draining be the end of our economy? Get the most affordable gold—own spendable 24K GoldNotes today and secure your wealth! http://buygoldnotes.com Are we witnessing the Federal Reserve set the stage for another financial crisis? With liquidity withdrawals echoing patterns from early 2020, could history repeat itself? This video explores the Fed's current strategy, the projected impact on the U.S. economy, and the surprising timing just after Election Day 2024. Discover how these actions could lead to market volatility, strained banking systems, and a potential 'Great Reset.' ✅ Protect your future from market risks—visit ⁠https://www.colonialmetalsgroup.com/rtd⁠ or call 888-521-2448 to speak with the professionals about a Self-Directed IRA today. ✅ Get the 2024 Trump Silver Presidential Medal here: https://bit.ly/TrumpSilver ✅ The 5 Steps to Monetary Savviness (Unplug from the Matrix) - Begin your journey to financial independence now. https://www.rethinkingthedollar.com/ Keep Up with the Latest: Subscribe for the latest news and trends to never miss out!

In Episode 357 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with the CEO of CrossBorder Capital, Michael Howell, about the run-up in gold and bitcoin prices and whether this signals the return of "money printing" driven by overwhelming government debt and deficit payments. Michael Howell has had the most accurate economic and financial forecasts of any analyst Kofinas has spoken with in the last several years. Demetri asked him back on the podcast to help explain why risk assets continue to outperform despite higher interest rates and what new all-time highs in gold and Bitcoin signal about global liquidity and investor confidence in the integrity of fiat currencies as reliable stores of value amid skyrocketing government debt and deficits. In the first hour, Michael breaks down the indicators he relies on to make his forecasts and why he expects economic growth and inflation to reaccelerate this year and into 2025. In the second hour, Howell forecasts which assets and asset classes he thinks will outperform, the direction of interest rates, the steepening of the yield curve, and how the expiration of the bank-term funding program (BTFP), the draw-down in the reverse repo facility (RRP), and a temporary decline in liquidity from tax payments could create buying opportunities for investors over the next several months. You can subscribe to our premium content and access our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces, you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 03/13/2024

The Fed shut down the BTFP, but just before it closed billions in loans were made to banks over the repeated objections of policymakers. Officials have been pushing depositories toward the Discount Window to the point even the FHLB system is dissuading its members from using its own advances as emergency liquidity. Yet, the last-minute BTFP indicates banks just aren't doing it with some substantial implications. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreFHFA FHLBank System at 100: Focus On the Futurehttps://www.fhfa.gov/AboutUs/Reports/ReportDocuments/FHLBank-System-at-100-Report.pdfFHFA Fact Sheet https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/PublicAffairsDocuments/FHLBank-System-at-100-Fact-Sheet.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Today is the last day for new loans from the Fed's BTFP, and there is still $165 billion being borrowed from it. In fact, that balance increased just last week. What are the implications of the shutdown? We keep coming back to the same factor which was all over last March. And with CRE looming in the background, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Episode 225 - Blockzeit 833.621 - von und mit El Bitcoin Ambassador, Loddi und gmblr247 Bank Term Funding Program Gewerbeimmobilienmarkt Einbruch der New York Community Bank Consumer Price Index (CPI) CME FedWatch Tool Phänomen Invertierte Zinskurve Cashu Zahlungen mit eNuts DACH Bitcoin-Meetups Sponsoren und Freunde BitBox02 Bitcoin-only Edition - 5% Rabatt für die Einundzwanzig Community mit Code “einundzwanzig” — 10% für 10 BitBoxes mit Code “einundzwanzig10”. Stack Deine Sats mit Pocket Bitcoin. Einundzwanzig Merch bei Copiaro. Bei ShopinBit kannst du über 1.000.000 Produkte mit Bitcoin kaufen. Weitere Links Besuche unsere Website und diskutiere mit, in unserer Telegram-Community. Verfolge die neusten Schlagzeilen im Newsfeed. Die Community-Tutorials auf YouTube. Lass uns einen Shoutout da.

In this episode:FOMC decision (1:35)BTFP is officially ending (6:09)Discount Window proposal (7:55)Federal Reserve info on Discount Window collateral (Click here)Rates are changing, what should we do? (11:23)Upcoming investment strategy workshop (LEARN MORE)Two investment training opportunities (22:37)Bond Basics course (LEARN MORE)Community Bank Investments School (CBIS) (LEARN MORE)If you have questions about anything covered in this episode, please email me at Chris @ BondInvestmentMentor.com.Do you know someone who could benefit from this information? Please share this episode and podcast with them!You will find more articles, tips, and resources about fixed-income investing and portfolio management at BondInvestmentMentor.com. Check it out!Let's Connect via Social Media!LinkedIn: Christopher Nelson, CFAFacebook:  Bond Investment Mentor

#RafiFarber - China Housing Market is Finally Ripe for Collapse It's been over 15 years since the global housing bubble burst, shifting monetary policy into inflationary overdrive, familiarizing us with unwanted acronyms like QE, MBS, and BTFP, and kicking the world off into the late stages of fiat monetary implosion. China, however, was able to dodge the housing bullet back then, but at the cost of carrying 60 dead ghost cities, the result of prices the Chinese government refusing to let prices fall and the market consequently unable to clear. With the collapse of Evergrande and the imminent fall of many other firms of its ilk, It appears China is finally catching up to the West on a 15-year delay. Meanwhile, "doom spending" is becoming more and more common, which is when the younger generation gives up on savings entirely and just spends what little savings they have on luxury items in order to mollify their nihilism. This is just another step towards hyperinflation, which is just doom spending on steroids. We are on our way. To find out more, click to watch the video now! - Sign up for The End Game Investor! https://endgameinvestor.substack.com/ To find out more about Fortuna Silver go to: https://fortunasilver.com/ - To join our free email list and never miss a video click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - To get on the waiting list for your very own ´Silver Chopper Ben´ sterling silver figurine click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/get-a-chopper-ben/ - To get your paperback or audio copy of The Big Silver Short go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ Find Arcadia Economics content on these sites: YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/user/ArcadiaEconomics Rumble - https://rumble.com/c/ArcadiaEconomics Bitchute - https://www.bitchute.com/channel/kgpeiwO1dhxX/ LBRY/Odysee - https://odysee.com/@ArcadiaEconomics:5 Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 Google-https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9teXNvdW5kd2lzZS5jb20vcnNzLzE2MTg5NTk1MjMzNDVz Anchor - https://anchor.fm/arcadiaeconomics Amazon - https://podcasters.amazon.com/podcasts Follow Arcadia Economics on these social platforms Twitter - https://twitter.com/ArcadiaEconomic Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/arcadiaeconomics/ To see the evidence of manipulative behavior in the silver market (as well as how you can send it to your local regulators and Congressional representatives) click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/cftc-complaint/ - To sign the petition to ban JP Morgan from having any involvement in the silver industry click here: https://www.ipetitions.com/petition/ban-jp-morgan-from-trading-gold-and-silver #silver #silverprice And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD) This video was sponsored by Fortuna Silver, and Arcadia Economics does receive compensation. For our full disclaimer go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/disclaimer-fortuna-silver-mines/Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

#AndySchectman: Silver Premiums Stay Low Ahead Of BTFP Expiration With #gold and #silver prices trading slightly lower to start the year, the premiums on both metals continue to sink. This is of course ahead of the scheduled expiration of the Fed' Bank Term Funding Program in March, and the interest rate cuts which are set to occur at some point this year. With the markets pricing in a 50% chance that the cuts will occur in March. And in today's show, Andy Schectman checks in to share what he's seeing in terms of retail gold and silver order flow, as well as the latest news and developments affecting the precious metals markets. To find out more, click to watch the video now! - To get 100 ounce Asahi and Valcambi bars rounds for only $1.39 over spot, backdated silver maple leafs for $3.75 over spot, or $10 gold Liberties for $89 over melt and $20 Liberties for $139 over melt: email: Arcadia@MilesFranklin.com To find out more about First Majestic Silver go to: https://firstmajestic.com/investors/news-releases/ - To join our free email list and never miss a video click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - To get on the waiting list for your very own ´Silver Chopper Ben´ sterling silver figurine click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/get-a-chopper-ben/ - To get your paperback or audio copy of The Big Silver Short go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ Find Arcadia Economics content on these sites: YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/user/ArcadiaEconomics Rumble - https://rumble.com/c/ArcadiaEconomics Bitchute - https://www.bitchute.com/channel/kgpeiwO1dhxX/ LBRY/Odysee - https://odysee.com/@ArcadiaEconomics:5 Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 Google-https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9teXNvdW5kd2lzZS5jb20vcnNzLzE2MTg5NTk1MjMzNDVz Anchor - https://anchor.fm/arcadiaeconomics Amazon - https://podcasters.amazon.com/podcasts Follow Arcadia Economics on these social platforms Twitter - https://twitter.com/ArcadiaEconomic Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/arcadiaeconomics/ To see the evidence of manipulative behavior in the silver market (as well as how you can send it to your local regulators and Congressional representatives) click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/cftc-complaint/ - To sign the petition to ban JP Morgan from having any involvement in the silver industry click here: https://www.ipetitions.com/petition/ban-jp-morgan-from-trading-gold-and-silver #silver #silverprice And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD) We do receive compensation from Miles Franklin from orders placed through our show. For our full disclaimer go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/disclaimer-miles-franklin-precious-metals/ This video was sponsored by First Majestic Silver, and Arcadia Economics does receive compensation. For our full disclaimer go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/disclaimer-first-majestic-silver/Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

The Fed keeps having to screw around with what should be its primary job. The Fed is now trying to go back to the past with its Discount Window, hoping to fix it so the program might work this time. Officials are in a bind being forced to unwind the BTFP after unintentionally granting too generous terms. What are they missing? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

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#RafiFarber - Fed Panics on BTFP as 16.2M Ounces of Silver Flood SLV Effective immediately and in a move that smacks of panic, the Federal Reserve has shut down the arbitrage from the Bank Term Funding Program (the regional bank bailout) banks have been taking advantage of since November. Banks have been turning in underwater Treasurys for cash at 4.8% and stuffing that cash back into their reserves, earning 5.3%. if the Fed wasn't expecting this and had to shut it down "immediately", what else are they not expecting? Meanwhile, Texas is defying the Biden administration setting the stage for an imminent showdown, silver is flooding back in to SLV, and 4 major bank executives are warning of major monetary sewer problems sometime between March and May. The plot thickens. To find out more, click to watch the video now! - Sign up for The End Game Investor! https://endgameinvestor.substack.com/ To find out more about Fortuna Silver go to: https://fortunasilver.com/ - To join our free email list and never miss a video click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - To get on the waiting list for your very own ´Silver Chopper Ben´ sterling silver figurine click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/get-a-chopper-ben/ - To get your paperback or audio copy of The Big Silver Short go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ Find Arcadia Economics content on these sites: YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/user/ArcadiaEconomics Rumble - https://rumble.com/c/ArcadiaEconomics Bitchute - https://www.bitchute.com/channel/kgpeiwO1dhxX/ LBRY/Odysee - https://odysee.com/@ArcadiaEconomics:5 Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 Google-https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9teXNvdW5kd2lzZS5jb20vcnNzLzE2MTg5NTk1MjMzNDVz Anchor - https://anchor.fm/arcadiaeconomics Amazon - https://podcasters.amazon.com/podcasts Follow Arcadia Economics on these social platforms Twitter - https://twitter.com/ArcadiaEconomic Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/arcadiaeconomics/ To see the evidence of manipulative behavior in the silver market (as well as how you can send it to your local regulators and Congressional representatives) click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/cftc-complaint/ - To sign the petition to ban JP Morgan from having any involvement in the silver industry click here: https://www.ipetitions.com/petition/ban-jp-morgan-from-trading-gold-and-silver #silver #silverprice And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD)Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on when will Japan end its negative interest-rate? Does the BTFP mean the US banks are in trouble? How does the Bank of England operate its bond sales? Is the Gold market rigged?

Episode 111: On today's show I speak with the great Dr. EJ Antoni, Research Fellow at Heritage Foundation and public finance economist focusing on fiscal and monetary policies and TRUTH IN ECONOMICS beyond the headlines! Join us as we go deep under the hood and analyze the REAL economic numbers. We talk Debt, Massive Government Spending, Bidenomics, the TRUE Unemployment Rate and Labor Market Numbers, Inflation, and more. Where is all this liquidity coming from while FED is reducing its balance sheet? We discuss the BTFP details you need to know! Will the FED pivot? What is the Financial Market Outlook for 2024? An episode you cannot afford to miss! ➡️Follow Dr EJ Antoni on X: https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni ➡️Read Dr EJ Antoni's papers on Heritage: https://www.heritage.org/staff/ej-antoni   For Investment Inquiries and/or to speak to an Investment Advisor at HYDRA WEALTH ADVISORS, please visit: https://www.hydrawealthadvisors.com ✨SUBSCRIBE to The RO Show YT Channel✨ https://youtube.com/@theroshowpodcast https://rumble.com/c/c-5300605 ➡️CONNECT with ROSANNA PRESTIA⬅️ ✨ONE SITE ♾️ https://sociatap.com/RosannaPrestia/ ✨X ♾️ https://twitter.com/RosannaInvests ✨X ♾️ https://twitter.com/TheROShowPod ✨LinkedIn ♾️ https://www.linkedin.com/in/rosannaprestia/ ✨WEBSITE ♾️ https://www.rosannaprestia.com/ THINK Different with Rosanna ©️ 2022-2024

Weekly Update: Bank Term Funding Program: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/weekly-update-bank-term-funding-program-9a7?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web The Fed's Balance Sheet Reduction (QT) Update: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/the-feds-balance-sheet-reduction-cd4?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

FRIENDS AND ENEMIES Join us for some QUALITY Bitcoin and economics talk, with a Canadian focus, every Monday at 7 PM EST. This week: -CPI print to halt rate hike? -gaming the BTFP -porch pirates' rights -Ontario universities strapped for cash -CEBA loans -More GDP per capita -Rug pulling Toronto land owners And much more. From a couple of Canucks who like to talk about how Bitcoin will impact Canada. As always, none of the info is financial advice. Website: ⁠www.CanadianBitcoiners.com⁠ Discord:  ⁠ ⁠https://discord.gg/ESRCZWpb⁠ A part of the CBP Media Network: ⁠www.twitter.com/CBPMediaNetwork This show is sponsored by: easyDNS - ⁠⁠https://easydns.com/⁠⁠ EasyDNS is the best spot for Anycast DNS, domain name registrations, web and email services. They are fast, reliable and privacy focused. You can even pay for your services with Bitcoin! Apply coupon code 'CBPMEDIA' for 50% off initial purchase Bull Bitcoin - ⁠⁠https://mission.bullbitcoin.com/cbp⁠⁠ The CBP recommends Bull Bitcoin for all your BTC needs. With their new kyc-free options, there's never been a quicker, simpler, more private and (most importantly) cheaper way to acquire private Bitcoin. Use the link above for $20 bones, and take advantage of all Bull Bitcoin has to offer. --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/canadian-bitcoiners/message

Halving the next hype cycle 101 days and 14512 blocks left News ETF? SEC's bitcoin ETF tweet fiasco may end in fraud charges, lawyers say - Blockworks (https://blockworks.co/news/sec-x-hack-legal-action) Day 1 Trade data: Grayscale: $2.3 billion BlackRock: $1 billion Fidelity: $700 million ARK 21Shares: $288 million Bitwise: $125 million Coinbase did $7B in Bitcoin transfers OTC during the day. (https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1745565435758559460) Wally Street seems happy with the results (https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1745786738549612749) $200M of folks finally getting out (https://twitter.com/akibablade/status/1745814139820294352) Eric Balchunas on XX (https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1745869555660881999) James Seyffart on X (https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1745868782273245196) "UPDATE: We don't have to wait till tonight for $GBTC Flows. Just -$95 million. A fraction of what I and many were thinking. This means yesterday was a huge success in my opinion. Likely going to see an inflow number for $BRRR from Valkyrie too! Day 1 Net flows sit at $625 mln The FCA, Britain's consumer financial regulator, guidelines discriminate against certain customers (https://www.nobsbitcoin.com/fcas-consumer-protection-regulations-make-uk-centralized-exchanges-unusable-for-retail-investors/) as unsuitable to buy bitcoin Economics Arthur Hayes on the confluence of financial system, banking, and economic stress, which means bitcoin might dump (https://cryptohayes.medium.com/signposts-693ba565cd3e) This relates to the U.S. central bank's BTFP expiring in March (https://wolfstreet.com/2024/01/09/the-fed-will-let-the-btfp-expire-in-march-fed-vice-chair-for-supervision-michael-barr/) Shinobi on Bitcoin Magazine explains the economic rational for layered scaling in terms of Jevons Paradox (https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/jevons-paradox-what-it-actually-means-for-bitcoin), the observation that increasing efficency can also increase demand, which increases price Privacy GrapheneOS discloses vulnerabilities actively exploited by forensic companies stacker news ~security (https://stacker.news/items/385351) The team and users at GrapheneOS have uncovered a vulnerability in smartphones being actively used by digital forensics companies / exploit brokers to facilitate extractions in the after-first unlock (AFU) phase. Bitcoin Education Bitcoin Optech #238 covers lightning anchors and LN Symetry, as well as reviwing some bitcoin core review club (https://bitcoinops.org/en/newsletters/2024/01/10/) questions Feedback Remember to get in touch bitcoindadpod@protonmail.com or @bitcoindadpod (https://mobile.twitter.com/bitcoindadpod) on twitter Consider joining the matrix channel (https://matrix.to/#/#bitcoin:jupiterbroadcasting.com) using a matrix client like element (https://element.io/get-started), details here (https://www.jupiterbroadcasting.com/community/matrix/) Thank you Boosters If you get some value from this show, please consider sending a boost. Hearing from you means a lot to us! Send a Boost via the Podcast Index web page. No Podcast app upgrade required. Install Alby (https://getalby.com/) Find the Bitcoin Dad Pod on the Podcast Index (https://podcastindex.org/podcast/5049889) Boost right from the page! Send a re-ocurring or one-off lightning boost to the show with no message at bdadpod@getalby.com or directly to Chris at chrislas@getalby.com Value for Value Podcasting 2.0 to support an indepenent podcasting ecosystem (https://podcastindex.org/) Recomended Podcasting2.0 apps: Fountain (https://www.fountain.fm/) podcast app (Android) Podverse (https://podverse.fm/) (Cross platform and self hostable) + Alby (https://getalby.com/) for boosts Castamatic (https://apps.apple.com/us/app/castamatic-podcast-player/id966632553) (Apple) Sponsors and Acknowledgements Music by Lesfm from Pixabay Self Hosted Show (https://selfhosted.show/) courtesy of Jupiter Broadcasting (https://www.jupiterbroadcasting.com/)

Subscribe to our YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@TEK2day We cover recent TEK2day articles around CPI, the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) and stagflation. CPI: Prices Will Remain Stubbornly High Unless Unemployment Increases: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/cpi-prices-will-remain-stubbornly?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web The Fed Is Going To Reverse Course Quickly It Seems: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/the-fed-is-going-to-reverse-course?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web The Big Four Banks and The Fed: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/the-big-four-banks-and-the-fed?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web Our amazon kindle book: "Stagflation Is Imminent": https://www.amazon.com/Stagflation-Imminent-Jonathan-Maietta-ebook/dp/B091NB9V7M

EDU's Guide to What A Collateral Shortage Looks LikeLink Here: https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateralWhile everyone was looking into year-end SOFR, real money stuff went haywire. Repo fails absolutely surged and swap spreads collapsed more than they had already. Dealers are hoarding Treasuries at the same time where banks are hitting up the Fed's BTFP. What do all of these and others mean, including the BTFP? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIOSCO/CPSS Securities Lending Reporthttps://www.bis.org/press/p990712.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Could robust job growth actually spell trouble for investors? Unpack the paradox with us as we analyze the latest labor market data that's causing a stir on Wall Street and potentially reshaping the Federal Reserve's playbook on interest rates. In an insightful exchange, we break down the recent job creation stats, average hourly earnings, and unemployment rates, uncovering why these seemingly positive figures might not be the investor's cup of tea. With heavyweight perspectives from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs lining our discussion, we tackle the big question on everyone's minds: Is a recession lurking around the corner in 2024? This episode is more than just numbers—it's a strategic forecast, looking to steer a billion listeners toward financial savvy and independence.Then, let's navigate the complex waters of the Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) and its $150 billion lifeline to regional banks. I dissect the BTFP's mechanics, debating the pros and cons of the program as it approaches its expiration date in March. With the banking sector's stability at stake, we weigh the Fed's next moves and what they could mean for the market's confidence. And in a lighter twist, I even suggest a quirky, unconventional method to cool down the hot labor market—though our real aim is to equip you with knowledge to thrive financially, no matter the market's mood swings. Tune in for a unique blend of expertise, analysis, and a touch of humor, where learning about the economy has never been more engaging.Support the show

The Fed won't allow the BTFP to expire on March 11th without first re-inflating the bond market. The banking industry had $684 billion of unrealized losses on the books at the end of Q3. Bank of America alone had $132 billion of unrealized losses on held-to-maturity securities, $107 billion of which were mortgage-backed securities at a yield of 2.12%. At such a low yield, those securities will be underwater unless the Fed Funds rate moves close to the zero bound. Banks typically pull back on credit when a significant amount of unrealized losses are carried on their balance sheets. Banks have not pulled back on credit to the extent they would have if the Fed had not created its Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) back in March. The BTFP is attractive to qualifying banks as it allows them to borrow while valuing their underwater collateral at par. Further, in recent weeks the BTFP's borrowing rate has been below Fed Funds (4.83% as of 12/28), which creates a short-term arbitrage opportunity for the banks. Without the BTFP crutch, it is likely that banks would tighten credit. Banks would likely tighten credit in the absence of the BTFP given their concern about the unrealized losses they carry combined with a softening macro economic environment. That is, unless the Fed rapidly reduces interest rates close to the zero bound in order to fully reinflate the bond market. How else will Bank of America and other banks that gorged on debt when the Fed Funds rate was at zero percent ever get their heads above water? I say allow the banks to suffer realized losses, but that is not how the Fed operates. Separate from the Banking unrealized loss issue, the U.S. has the problem of $34 Trillion of Treasury debt, approximately one-third of which is financed short term. Treasury needs to bring the cost of servicing its debt down. Today, the Fed Funds rate is pushing the average cost of servicing the Treasury debt higher. Interest expense will account for approximately 20% of Federal tax receipts in fiscal 2024 - a suffocating amount. Therefore, between Treasury's debt mountain and the Banking industry's enormous unrealized loss position, the Fed has sufficient motivation to move interest rates significantly lower in 2024.

Today's episode is with Peter Dunworth of The Bitcoin Adviser, a professional service assisting people around the world to buy, secure and manage their own bitcoin. In this special end of year episode, we look back at 2023 and discuss some of the key themes in the world of macro and Bitcoin including: 0:04:43 – Big picture theme of 2023 0:07:23 – Macro themes in 2023: regional banking crises & BTFP program 0:15:50 – The 60/40 portfolio and the performance of bonds 0:23:26 – Volatility and risk 0:26:53 – Bitcoin news in 2023 - ordinals, soaring hashrate 38:05 – Bitcoin metrics, conviction growing & taking coins off exchange? 44:20 – Narratives and sentiment in the institutional market 50:46 – ESG / other FUD You can get in touch with Peter on X at @PeterBTCAdviser or you can learn more about his business at https://www.thebitcoinadviser.com/ Follow me at @Dale21M or @whybitcoinshow or visit www.thewhybitcoinshow.com Edited by Sean Lowe --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/whybitcoinshow/message

With such a massive run-up in stocks and bonds in November, should we still expect a Santa Claus rally in the markets this month? Or did it already happen? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks that may be the case, or if we do get one, it will be quite mild. Unless a pullback happens soon, which Lance thinks is quite possible. He's reducing his long exposure and waiting for a pullback at this point. In this week's market recap, Lance and I talk about the strong correlation between financial asset prices and net liquidity. For much of this year, "stealth" liquidity from sources like the BTFP, the Reverse Repo program, and fiscal deficit spending have helped buoy stocks to near record highs. Will that continue in 2024? We also talk about the odds for recession risk, which are becoming cloudier. Experts are now quite divided on the matter. With such uncertainty, how should an investor consider positioning their portfolio? Lance shares how he, as a capital manager clients, is doing so now. SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel #recession #bonds #liquidity

UBS seems to be in danger of bankruptcy, the BTFP lapses in March. 5 months to fireworks. Here is what to expect and why it is happening Pick up the best razor in the game, Nadeau Razor, use code LOCKDOWN for a special discount for my audience only: https://nadeaushaveco.com/ Need ammo? You bet your ass you do, buy from the best Fenix Ammo: https://fenixammo.com/ Appearance tickets for LP CT convention here: https://www.lpct.org/2023_speaker_event If you would like to join the LP, please click here to do so: https://my.lp.org/partner/liberty-lockdown-podcast/ Check out my show over on Fountain: https://www.fountain.fm/show/nUTYcMtl4yMuoKHljZWu Become a supporting member of Liberty Lockdown here!: https://libertylockdown.locals.com/ This is where I do monthly AMA's for supporting members only Super valuable stuff! Twitter: https://twitter.com/LibertyLockPod Pickup LL shirts over at https://www.toplobsta.com/collections/liberty-lockdown-23 NEW DESIGNS JUST DROPPED All links: https://www.libertylockdownpodcast.com/ Linktree: https://linktr.ee/libertylockdown As always, if you leave a five star review on Apple Podcasts with your social media handle I'll read it on next weeks show (audio version only)! Love you long time Liberty Lockdown presents a variety of opinions, sometimes opposing and controversial. They are not representative of the host of the podcast. Guests are encouraged to express their opinions in a safe and equitable environment.

Laura Stover, RFC® discusses the Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) today, a topic that is often overlooked but has significant implications for our economy.This program, which was introduced in response to the failures of banks earlier this year, has the potential to create new money and impact the value of long-term securities. Let's dive deeper into this issue and explore its implications. To understand the BTFP, we first need to differentiate it from quantitative easing (QE). QE is a Fed open market operation that involves buying bonds out of the market to ease monetary conditions. On the other hand, the BTFP is a credit facility that allows bondholders to use their bonds as collateral for a loan. While both tools aim to add liquidity to the system, the BTFP specifically targets bondholders with heavy capital losses. The BTFP is essentially a generous version of the old discount window, providing a direct loan from the Federal Reserve to banks. This program aims to prevent market panic and ensure that banks have the ability to meet the needs of depositors. However, if defaults occur, the BTFP could effectively become a form of quantitative easing. One of the key concerns with the BTFP is the potential for inflation and interest rate spikes. With inflation running at its highest levels since the 1980s, focusing on financial stability could risk creating further inflationary pressures. Additionally, the BTFP's valuation of collateral at par, regardless of the actual value, could lead to a significant deterioration in the value of long-term securities. Further, the BTFP raises questions about the need for such a massive backstop. While it was understandable during the financial crisis of 2008, the current economic climate doesn't seem to warrant such a program. The influx of liquidity through the BTFP, combined with the trillions of dollars printed during the pandemic, raises concerns about the long-term impact on the value of the dollar and the sustainability of our economy. The Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program is a significant development in our financial landscape. While it may not be as well-known as quantitative easing, it has the potential to create new money and impact the value of long-term securities. As we move forward, it's crucial to keep a close eye on the implications of this program and its potential impact on inflation, interest rates, and the overall economy. By staying informed and working with a qualified financial advisor, you can navigate these uncertain times and make informed decisions about your retirement. Remember to consider all aspects of your financial life and ensure that your retirement plan is well-rounded and aligned with your goals. With careful planning and strategic decision-making, you can achieve the retirement lifestyle you've always imagined. Rate, Review and Subscribe to the Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/retirement-talk-podcast-with-laura-stover/id571347188 How to Connect: redefiningwealth.info lswealthmanagement.com Schedule a Review: https://redefiningwealth.info/schedule/ Redefining Wealth® Custom Blueprint Income Plan: https://redefiningwealth.info/schedule/  

Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, breaks down today's core PCE price index which showed that both inflation and consumer spending rose in September. Isaac Boltansky, BTIG Policy Research Director, predicts that the chaos in the House will lead to a shutdown later this year. Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Chief Investment Officer of Wealth Management, says that we've entered within 50 basis points of a peak in rates. Poonam Goyal & Anurag Rana, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analysts, discuss a big week in Big Tech earnings. Chris Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott Analyst, expects banks to set aside reserves to build confidence going into 2024. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance      FULL TRANSCRIPT:     This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Lisa A. Bromoids, along with Tom Keen and Jonathan Ferrell. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. We're waiting for the PC data. We're joined by Mike Nicky Aron the Deak. So we're waiting for the personal spending, the deflator. Mike, will it be disinflationary? Roll of the dice, that's the question. We're waiting for the numbers to come down on the Bloomberg Terminal. Well, I got about four seconds until that happens. But the ideas we may get a little more disinflation. Let's find out from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and here come the numbers. And we'll start with the inflation numbers. They come in hotter than anticipated, up four tenths of a percent. I don't know month over a month basis. For the headline, the core comes in up a three tenths which is about what was expected, although there was some leaning towards maybe a little lower number year over year. Now we see the PCE headline number at three point four percent, that's down from three to five, and the core comes in at three seven, down from three to nine. Both of those expected. All the people who like to dive into all those numbers and figure out what actually changed will be with us in a few seconds. Personal income up three tenths. That's lower than the prior month of four tenths gain, but also lower than what was anticipated a four tenths gain. Spending up seven tenths, I mean not strong. On the back of that, on the back of that GDP and the connginut well, this number is in the GDP because this is a September number. It was the third month of the quarter, so he kind of sort of backed out the numbers and anticipated that this would be fairly strong. We were up four tenths the prior month. The question is now do we continue to see that spending happen, Because if incomes are falling behind and they have been the spending levels over the last couple of months, that would suggest that maybe there's a pullback ahead. Now I'm not the expert here. There's one more there is, indeed, La Rain chief economists out with us this morning. First take, I think that we continue to see inflation coming down, but it's still uncomfortably It's still unacceptably high from the point of view of the Fed, and I think the conversation as we go into next year continues to the options for the Fed continue to narrow because if inflation stays about where it is and it's going to take a long time for it to get closer to too, their room to maneuver should the economy slow at all, is going to be very narrow. And look by these numbers, it looks like the economy is just still incredibly strong. We know that from the GDP numbers that we already got, but I mean the spending has just by the households that has defied every expectation of it to slow, and it's accelerated so much in the third quarter. That's what's extraordinary. I think savings rate comes in a three point four percent. People have been watching that for some indication of whether or not they're going to run out of money in the American consumer. It's down from four percent and it's been a steady decline. But historically, before the pandemic, we used to say people spend what they make. They don't dip into savings the way people tend to think they do. And so if that's the case, then there's more of a case now for maybe a slow down. People don't have as much to dip into if they wanted to, but they're also not making as much as they were. Well, I had johnat Henry with me this morning from HSBC and she said, actually Americans are more likely to dip into their savings and spend, spend, spend right to the very end. But I want to bring you an idea from UBS, which is Paul Donovan, where he said, you know, when we go to write the history of twenty twenties, do not bet against the headonism of the US consumer. It's very rich. I love it. I mean, there's a there's a brilliant wine place in London called Hedonism Wines. Whole other story the hedonism. You can tell us that later. I could tell you that later, but I want to understand from you laya the hedonism of the US consumer. Is that real or do you think that runs out of mileage as well. Next sure, listen, he's got a point. That's a really colorful way to put it. But that's what the third quarter felt like. Between the headlines about the concerts, Yeah, all of that, and then and all everyone who followed. I think, you know, people seem to be looking for that next experience and looking to pay whatever is required to get it. You know, this issue of savings has gotten so complicated because we of course have the excess savings that accumulated during the shutdown. Is that more you know, bucketed with these you know sort of now the highest quintile of quartile of household that sort of maybe aren't going to spend them as much. We know that that access savings is run out for a lot of the lower you know sort of strata. The other seventy five percent of us, we're not in that upper quintal. I think as we think about it, people, the normal people, I think, and yet you know, we just see the strong job growth I think reinforces the foundation of the household, and we just see this reacceleration is really unexpected in terms of your hedonism. Example, here services spending went up eight tenths whereas goods spending went up seven tents. There was always a story about people switching away from goods, but they still seem to be spending a lot on goods. Services don't go into the retail sales numbers that we got earlier this month, except for bars and drinking places fitting your theme, but eight tenths of a percent to gain for services pretty strong. So it looks like people were spending money during the third quarter on all sorts of things. I do think there's an interesting dynamic here, which is that if you look at consumer confidence, it's still well below where it was before the pandemic, and that's, you know, despite strong growth. So can you tie those two together. You know that the consumer confidence is being a little bit battered, but the spending it remains unabated. To me, it really, I think inflation is something that is still really casting a long shadow over the household, because you know, when I'm not here, I'm the mom at the grocery store and I've got one bag of groceries and it still cost me ninety five dollars and I can't figure out what's in it, you know, So I think you know this idea that your over year inflation is coming down, but the sticker shock is still a very real and present pain point to household budgets. And Coca Cola are raising prices, and Netflix are raising prices, and there are a Whole and Apple TV they're raising prices as well, and we are moderately immune to those. Do you know that you'll still order a Coca Cola? You'll still order You'll still order your Netflix movie. Mike Well, I was looking here to see if we get super Core. I haven't got that number pulled out yet, but that's the one that the Chairman of the Fed says he likes the most. See if we have that number calculated yet, because you got to take out and then the CPI number that had risen the most since you know, about a year, so it had. I think that's going to be a key piece of today's report too. Well, just looking at the bond market, it's virtually flat. I mean four eighty five is where we are on tenure government bonds. So there's a sort of a flat, sort of unknown entity within the bond market. Let's just check in on equities up for tenenths of one percent again, you've got an Amazon recovery and nice kicker there. It was up six percent at one juncture, giving a little bit back. You're looking at ten year years, just still incrementally rising. This morning at four eighty five, we just had Bmo in Lingen here with us saying look, the next three weeks will define where the endpoint is for the bond spike. Use oil is up one point ninety three percent this morning. Again there's more geopolitical anks with military action in Syria from the US side, and that has brought again a geopolitical bid back to the oil markets. But personal income rises zero point three percent. The estimate was for plus point four percent, So Mike this the takeaway from this is the core price index rises to three point seven percent, pretty much in line with the estimates. We're seeing disinflation, I mean O creative inflation is slowing down. It's not slowing down as perhaps fast as people would like. And to Lar's point, especially about the being the moment at the grocery store, prices go up at a slower rate, but they don't come down. So you're paying more for a lot of staples and they're going to just stay at that price. And so people look at that and they're still experiencing inflation, even if inflation is not as bad as it was before. What what happens then to this view in the market that we're going to get right cuts into twenty twenty four does not debate change. It's got to continue. The FED, I think now has to just continue to ring rate cut expectations out of that future's curve. I feel like this is the deal with the devil right now, because if you had told me that we were going to have GDP growth of almost five percent and the FED was not going to cut rates again, I would have just not believed that was a possible outcome. But FED future's markets are not pricing in another rate cut. Markets seem very convinced the Fed is done. And I think the only way that works is if we continue to get this drift higher in long term yields. And there's a room for that because today markets have seventy five basis points of rate cuts priced in for next year, So if the FED is going to kind of stay on hold, there's room for that to continue to come out, for long term rates to continue to move higher. How do you think they look at this in the Fed? In the Fed might give you look at this the top line is pce is it a four month high consumer spending picks up. It doesn't leave them that huge optionality to be very very dubbish, does it. They can just sit on this at the moment because they forecast in September, the last time they did forecast that we would see PCEE core at three point seven percent at the end of the year. Well, I'm with there bang on where we are. So most economists think with a couple of months to go, we're going to come in below that. So the Fed could argue its targets are being hit. And you mentioned Ian Ling, and he had a great note this morning about how we're starting to see more impacts from higher FED rates and that is slowly getting into the economy and we should see more. So the Fed is probably going to sit there and say what we're doing is working. We're at a level where inflation is still coming down. We don't have to go up more right now with all this uncertainty out there about what's going to happen. Well, and unless inflation is a nine percent there really is no emergency reason to raise rates. That's usually you know, not a thing. So they you know, to your point, they have the time and yet. To me, this increase in long term interest rates is the reason that they can be patient, and that is going to continue to sort of pump the brakes on activity. You know, when I look ahead at next year, my forecast is for slower growth. I think these higher interest rates have actually increased the chance of a recession, not decreased. Is that slower growth? No landing, soft landing, not hard landing. I think it has to be as soft landing. I still feel like there is very real risk of recession next year, and we cannot discount that. But all the reasons why we've been saying it might be a mild recession could also mean that you just end up with some sluggish growth. So, Mike, as we go to the close of the year, what's the next piece that you're going to hang your hat on in terms of dead We've got Michigan at University of Michigan. Yeah, I don't think that's going to move the needle a whole lot. But I think what we are going to focus on is all the data next week, particularly the ISM numbers and then jobs at the end of the week. The Fed meets on Wednesday, so they won't have the jobs figures, but at this point to get an idea of where they're going to go, and nobody is less than a two percent chance they do anything on Wednesday, but nobody expects that. But the question is then what happens January December, January, and the jobs report will contribute to that. That's what will be joining us is Isaac Boltanski, director of policy research at BTIG. Can you give us a sense, to Isaac, of just what kind of leader Mike Johnson is going to be? Can he find some sort of consensus within a very fractured party. I think the simple answer to that is now. I think I think that there are lots of folks who are breathing this deep sigh of relief because now there's someone with a gavel and we can begin handling the people's business again. But when you take a step back, you've got to see that the House Republican caucus is still deeply fractured. It's not clear how well they're going to be able to govern going forward. There's no semblance of bipartisanship anywhere on Capitol Hill, and frankly, Lisa I think that people are downplaying the risk associated with a prolonged government shutdown. I still think that is distinctly possible because we are nowhere, and I mean this nowhere when it comes to figuring out a way to fund the government and deal with all the supplemental funding requests that have been sent from the White House. There's a lot to impact there, and a lot of people have pushed backed against that and said that actually, the fact that we have a speaker makes it less likely that we will have a government shutdown. Are you disagreeing with that? Are you saying that basically this is just a window dressing over a pretty big fracture fissure in the Congress. In Congress, though, the unknown right now is how much of a honeymoon speaker the new speaker is going to get. But my sense when you start to look at some of the specific issues here and really hone in on things like Ukraine funded, or you take a step back and you look at the fact that we haven't even agreed on overall spending levels, I think it's incredibly difficult to believe that that this group is going to be able to easily avert a shutdown. My base case is that we are going to see a shutdown later this year. I don't think that's going to be a massive market moving event, but I do think that the getting the gabble to Speaker Johnson has lessened fears in the market, and that that's unfounded at this point. So the President wants a total of what one hundred and sixty two billion dollars from Congress across Ukraine, Israel, supplemental spending, et cetera. How contentious is this going to be? How much of a flashpoint is this going to be? Will it all be cojoin? Will it just be a great dissipation of this request. So first and foremost, they haven't even agreed on basic funding levels yet, right, so we're not even at a point of agreement over the normal funding levels, and that's going to be the fight for the next few weeks when we then dig into the supplementals, where you do have over one hundred billion in different ass I think that there is clearly political support for things like funding Israel and supporting Israel and it's battle with Hamas. I think that fourteen billion dollars is very likely to get done. There's clearly support for more money at the US southern border. I think that that's bipartisan and by Camel on Ukraine, it's going to be a little bit tougher. And note that this is something that the News Speaker has actually fought against in the past. Last night he did suggest that there is a way to move forward on Ukraine funding, but that they're going to have to be conditions attached to that. No one knows what those conditions are yet. Put it all together, and I think that there is a way forward on this spending package. I just think that we're going to have to go through the same type of pain that we were seeing before when Speaker McCarthy lost the gap. How long do you think this speaker lasts or do you think he is there for the duration? So what of the first things he's going to have to do is try to get rid of that motion to vacate which pulled Kevin McCarthy out of the chair. I think that this speaker has a decent runway to get into first quarter of next year at a minimum. My conversation suggests that there's a real focus on at least getting to April of next year. As a reminder, that's when the one percent across the board. Budget cuts will go into effect if Congress does not pass the twelve appropriation spills. So I think that that's the date that a lot of people have circled on their calendar just trying to make it to that point. So, Isaac, how do you deal with the fact that you are in a situation where the interest that the government has to pay continues to go up? Where does that fall in these budgetary arguments? No one seems to talk about it, but it's on the rise. So if we can't cut the budget at all to do what we want to do, how are we dealing with spending that we now are compelled to do. That's one of the most frustrating parts of the past three weeks is that we weren't talking about the real issues. We weren't talking about the thirty three trillion in debt, we weren't talking about the two trillion deficit we're running this year. We weren't talking about the seven hundred billion dollars it costs US just this year to fund our deficits. And so I think that I remain deeply disheartened because we're not having those conversations, and more broadly, no one, no one, No one cares about the deficit when they're in the majority. They only care about the deficit when they're in the minority. And so until we see something that shocks DC tou to the point where it's forced to think about the debts and deficit differently, it's going to be status quo business as usual. How do you force someone to take a look at their own balance sheet and say, your payment next year is going to be double what your payment was this year, and you couldn't afford your payment this year. Why do we not? Why is that not part of the conversation. I know nobody wants to have it when they're in the majority. Nobody wants to not spend because everybody wants they get there, has a million things they want to spend on. But it's sort of like no one is dealing with the elephant in the room, no pun intended, which is the fact that we've got all this spending that still has to come through on this And I find that particularly frustrating in general. So I just how do we get to that conversation? You should run for office, come on down here and try to try to figure it out. But look, We're going to have a real, real fight over this with the Trump tax cuts expiring. You've got trillions of dollars in tax cuts that are coming due in twenty twenty five from the expiration of the Trump tax cuts, and I think that that could be a forcing mechanism for a broader conversation, but it's going to depend who's in power, right and sot. The next hurdle is to understand who's ahead in the elections. How much is Jennet Yellen's idea the mainstream that yields are going to go back down once we get past this blip, and that higher yields in the US is not a reflection of deficits but really just a reflection of how strong the US economy is. Is that the main idea and belief in Washington, DC. It's the hope of many on Capitol Hill. I don't think that there is anyone who has a firm feel for where yields are going, surely not on Capitol Hill. But it is definitely the hope at this point that everything will fix itself. Because our politics are so broken, they're unable to fix the problems, and so there is a hope that that's the direction that's going, Lisa. But I don't think anyone has a firm feeling one way or the other. Hope is not a strategy. I just keep thinking about that. Isaac Boltanski of BTIG, thank you so much for being with us. Joining us now is Lisa Shallatt CIO at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, And Lisa, I just want to start with have we sold off enough? Because I know you've been bearished, particularly on tech. Has this been a big enough sell off for you? Look, we're not interested in getting in here unless you're a trader. What we, you know, tend to point our clients to is being investors, being long term investors. And you know, our perspective is going has been that we're going to continue to trade in this bear market range, which is where we've been for two years. I mean, people have to pull out their telescope and look at where we've been. You look at the s and P five hundred. We were here in the summer spring of twenty twenty one, and so you know, this is a trader's market right now. We don't think we break out of this range of somewhere around forty two forty five hundred really until the middle of next year, and that's when the fog clears on whether or not we're really going to see growth reaccelerate or we're going to see us you know, probabilities of recession increase. And we've been in the camp that we're going to be in that second scenario where next year economic growth, particularly in the second half, disappoints. I mean, look at the third quarter GDP, we're doing nominal eight percent. What kind of a cop year over year is that going to be in the second half next year. It's a great point. You said that this is a trader's market when it comes to equities. Is it also a trader's market when it comes to bonds. You've been bullish on longer term bonds at a time where there's a feeling that maybe this selloff has legs and actually is fundamentally driven, including by how much the US has to finance. Yeah. I mean, look, our perspective is that we are probably within fifty basis points of a peak in rates, and that having clients begin to embrace this market lock in some of these coupons with the potential for rates on a cyclical basis to reset, creates a double digit return with a third of the volatility. So again, as as as UH you know investors, we think that that the buy and hold on some of these bonds UH is a good value proposition. But I think here too, there's a lot of volatility, and that means you've got to be a trader if you're going to be uh, you know, in this market looking for returns on the month or on the quarter. Lisa, good morning, it's manas. I think that's one of the most honest interpretations. You're not prepared to step and buy into this market in a trading market that we've heard in quite a while. But there is the other side, which is you either view that you've got to build some kind of defense, and I'm drawn to your view that you want real assets and you want gold. Gold is nearly a two thousand dollars and so are you actively adding more real assets than if you're not convinced on pure equity. We are adding and encouraging folks to add some real assets here. I mean, one of our themes has been that, you know, the equity markets in particular are just not pricing real risk premiums. And you know, one of the things that has, you know, given us has been heartening to us is the fact not only are we getting higher real rates in the bond market, but that there's a term premium that suddenly people realize that in a new inflation and in a new interest rate regime where the FED is going to be data dependent, there is lumpiness and there is uncertainty over time about how that data is going to come out. Add in all the geopolitical dimensions to what's going on right now, the dimensions of dysfunction in Washington, d C. The fact we're rolling into an election year in the US where I think that the headlines and the developments are going to be extraordinarily volatile. Our view is that real assets, things like commodities, things like real estates, things like energy, infrastructure assets could really, you know, be a source of protection here in stability in portfolios. We just had in Lincoln here from BMO. We talked about a number of different things that could drive the bond market, term premium being one, fiscal deficit's being another. He thinks that the peak, the peak spike in rates could be over the next couple of weeks. Would you agree with that, and if so, what part of the bond market. Would you like to take a portion off or add to if you're adding real commodities, what would you add in duration? Yeah, we're we're looking at Our perspective is that the best value right now is really intermediate, somewhere between four to six. We're finding some value in sevens in the treasury market in fact, but we're looking at investment and great corporate, so you know, we're taking the treasury yield and taking some of that spread. We do believe that there are quality balance sheets out there that can service you know, these coupons. So we're we're enthusiastic that the middle of the curve could produce double digit returns over the next you know, twelve to eighteen months. Lisa, I'm curious about this really different reaction when it's come to this geopolitical these devastating geopolitical events. Normally we would see US yields plunge in the face of this, and we had that reaction. But you know, you blinked and you missed it. We're right back up again. Does that represent a more fundamental reassessment of treasuries as a risk free asset? You know, you were going into this government shutdown again, an episode which historically has given us lower yields, and we sort of shrug it off. Is this time going to be different because people are fundamentally reassessing the dollar as a flight to quality and the result treasures. Yeah, I mean, I love that you're bringing up this issue. I mean, this is one of the issues that we talk about with our clients all the time because it is our sense that something fundamental is going on and that the appetite for US treasury debt is different this time. Clearly, you know, the market is readjusting to not having the FED as a price and sensitive buyer, right, we know that, and and QT is certainly a weight here. But you know, you look at what's going on among Japanese investors. They're facing the realities of a tough currency compare and really tough hedging costs in terms of their ability to buy treasuries in the size that they have been buying really over the last decade. The geopolitical dimensions of this, you know, historically, we know China has has been a big buyer given their you know, trade balances and foreign currency reserves and US dollars. Uh, there's a lot of complexity UH, and a lot I believe to question about why we haven't seen that flight to safety UH manifest as it historically has in US treasuries. I do think that this is something we need to watch and study and really think hard about about whether or not something is changing and whether the US treasury market is vulnerable to geopolitics for the first time, maybe since World War Two. Lisa Chalatte Morgan Stanley Wealth mentioned it is clear cut that when people are spending on clothes, Amazon does well. But that seems to be what we experienced yesterday in the Earth, straining us now to really pass through it. Anor A Karana and Punam Goyle of Bloomberg Intelligence covering the tech and the retail side of things. Anag, I want to start with you, are we basically just learning that Microsoft is taking the lead when it comes to cloud computing and Amazon and Google are falling behind. See I'm a big fan about Microsoft's down over the years, but I would not say that they are leading here. I would just say that in the Genai, you know, Frenzy, they just have a leg up because of their relationship with open Ai. But Amazon is still the biggest cloud out there. They have more, yeah, I would say revenue than anybody else. That's partially the reason why their relative growth rates are not as strong. But last night's comments on the conference call were so positive and I think that's what's driving the stock up here. Before that, the stock was flat, and you know, it was just the positive I would say body language of the management team that you know, the cloud bottom may be here for them. Okay, who's got the strongest who has the strongest cloud offering, and who will win the most market share? Well, Amazon's far bigger in terms of you know, revenue, the revenue boundard is closer to ninety billion dollars compared to Microsoft, which is closer to sixty billion, and with Google somewhere around twenty four to twenty five billion. So Amazon's clearly the leader with the biggest network and biggest footprint. But let's bring you into the conversation here. This has been a brutal week. At one junction, we lost two hundred billion dollars in market cap of some of these biggest and most loved, most owned stocks in the US. As you go to the close of the week, there was a brutalization of stocks that disappointed on Clyde, But the one thing that stood out to me is that there are these tech companies and they are raising prices. How does that play into your thinking? Yeah, I think on the retail side, Amazon actually has done a great job in maintaining its share and even growing it. You know, when you talk about raising crisis, do then in flee. I think it's quite the opposite at Amazon. You're actually seeing them push forward low crisis, especially on those deal days that they have, like Prime Days, and that's driving the consumer spend. We're expecting Amazon to use it scale and speed to really push the pedal on prices even more as we go through the holiday season, and that's going to drive consumers to their platform, allowing them to go gain share over competitors. Plunum advertising revenue has been growing at a double digit clip based on what two hundred million global Prime subscribers were able to get an early WED on that Prime Video ads edition. I think the ad edition is going to take time to build right now. The bulk of that advertising revenue is driven from the retail side, and I think that's really key here that's going to continue to climb. And remember that advertising is a much more profitable business than the retail business and even the cloud business. So as that business scales beyond fifty billion, which it's trending to right now, it's going to drive the bottom line for Amazon. And that edition of the ads that you're talking about, I think that's just icing on the cake. I mean, that's really going to also help build revenues for Amazon and allow customers to choose do they want the ads or do they want the content without the ads where they would have to pay attlefore that. And you're right, we've now digested earnings from Alphabet, Meta, Intel, IBM, you name it. You know, what are the primary takeaways from you from three third quarter performance? I think if we are not very close to the bottom, you know, we have probably a quarter or two away, and I think that really sets up well for a big rebound in twenty twenty four. And I think this was the biggest fear that we have that what's going to happen beginning of next year with geopolitical conditions getting worse. And I think last night's results and even Microsoft's comments give us some hope that things are not as bad as you know, you know, people are making out to be. It does raise a question though, about the differentiation on rog within the cloud space, within the AI space, and whether companies are being reward for investing in some of the AI intelligence AI programming that could make a lot of money. Did you get the sense that Amazon was rewarded more on that front than Google. See. One of the biggest thing I think it's the scale matters now, And you have to remember most enterprises around the world fortune two thousand companies are going to experiment with this technology over the next twelve to twenty four months. Who are they going to go to. All these companies have the building blocks for people to experiment, So I'm not saying one's going to win over the other. All three of them are going to get their fair share of revenue from the clients. The problem is on the other side, they actually don't have enough GPU capacity to go out and build some of that AI workloads or training models and other things. But I'm fairly confident that over the next twelve for twenty four months, all three of them are going to see some benefit from Jenai. Who's got the ability to deliver the best margins. You note that revenue grew by twelve percent of aws, but the margin jump by third thirty percent. Who else is at thirty percent or beating that? Or is that where the aspiration is to deliver stronger margins? Is that part of the buy thesis. So one of the things we have talked about, think about all the three companies in the long run. Now the long run could be five years or ten years. These businesses have potential to grow operating margins north of forty percent. Now that's the reason why we say that is if you look at you know, processing companies and other things, when they reach maturity stage, these are highly scalable business Once you you know, go through the cycle of capax, you don't really require that much money to maintain them. We are confident in the the long run all three of them will have great margins. The other two companies don't really disclose it at the cloud level, at that infrastructure level, but to that extent, I mean, I mean, frankly, alphabet is still losing money in their cloud portfolio. But there is a lot of different things that go into that. Put on what's the takeaway that we've gotten in terms of these earnings about how much retailers in the US continue their hedonistic tendencies. Yeah, I thank you for the retailers. It's going to be mixed. As we moved through holiday, there is going to be clear winners and losers. And we do think that the consumer is really focused on value and that trend isn't going away for the holiday season, so they're going to have to suction the pedal on price and inventories aren't as high as they were last year, so it's really going to depend on their ability to bring product in to drive demand and really keep prices well the holiday season. Un I'm Gail on our grounda both of you. Thank you so much for being with us. One aspect of the market that's kind of flown under the radar is the regional banks in particular, especially as we talk about the big banks and the successors and all of that, and we could see that so far you're to date the BKX, the KBX KBW index is down twenty five percent, close to the lows that we saw during the crisis back in March. Now is Chris Marinac, director of research at Jenny Montgomery Scott. And I know Chris that you've been really bullish on the banking sector and I want to get your take on what you make of the selloff that has persisted. Well. I think, Lisa, there's been some continued struggles about the fears of credit quality getting worse in twenty twenty four. I think that there's been some passive flows against the banks. I've heard of a lot of folks shorting the KRX and the KRE and then going along in the Nasdaq one hundred, So that has been a challenge in terms of incremental selling. I think to some extent, the banks are not sexy here and they're not doing anything from a growth perspective that causes investors to dive in. And I think most of the fun flows has been to other growth areas and other areas that are kind of avoiding anything that's economically sensitive and perhaps recession recession proNT So have you gotten less bullish on this area because we have seen a bit of underperformance versus expectations, particularly in the regional space, and there isn't a clear pathway to growth. Well, the stocks have an opportunity to trade back to forty five to forty seven on the KRE. I think the question is can we get investors to pay attention to what really matters, which is cash flow. The operating cash flow for most banks is only down about ten percent from the August estimate's pre third quarter earnings, and so I think the other ninety percent of PP and R is actually very strong to allow banks to earn through the cycle on credit issues and anything that comes their way. I think their capacity to absorb losses is extremely good, and that's one of the reasons I've thought the stocks have opportunities to do better. I don't think we'll go back to where we would have been on the KRE pre Silicon valley, but I do think we can be better than we are, and I think we have to get through this recession discounting that the market is doing at the moment. Yeah, we are pretty obsessed with the recession dis kind in it just hasn't come home Durus yet, Chris good Morning. Provisioning was something that stood out for me as being on the low side in this reporting season. Of course, if there is no dramatic slow dying and there is no hard landing, then that's all justified that The acinting reason, do you think twenty twenty four is going to be madred by an increase a material increase in provisioning, and if so, word does it hurt the most. So I think that the provisions will rise in twenty four primarily because I think charge offs will go up. We have a lot of companies who are writing off fifteen to twenty basis points of charge offs, which is very very low. So going back to thirty or forty basis points for most mid sized banks is normal. I think your large national companies probably right off between forty five and fifty, so that's a little higher than the forty range that they are today, So that will cause provision to rise. I think generally most banks are going to set aside reserves to kind of build confidence with themselves. Clearly, the accounting on SECOIL has led banks to actually limit their reserve growth this quarter, less than I would have fought. I think to some extent it is driven by unlimited balance sheet growth and also the Moody's forecast that a lot of banks use has actually pushed out the recession, and that is also tamped down the reserve calculations. I mean, you think the consensus is obviously JP Morgan just keeps getting bigger. It's just like this juggernaut that just swallows everything and moves everything out of its way. You've listened to the conference calls, You've listened to a couple of these CEOs. Who's under most pressure in the banking sphere? I know I have my target list, But who do you think is under the most pressure as the CEO at the moment? Well, I think there are regional banks who have capital ratios that are depressed when you take the mark to market for all securities, both for the available for sale and held the maturity, So that issue has to be resolved. I think to some extent, banks will work out of their issues on their own because securities are going to start maturing in four and twenty five and to some extent these marks start to flatten out. We don't have to see FED policy chains for the marks to get better. I think somebody think that some of the payoffs of securities coming due at maturity will help. I think the pressure is on the regional banks who are going to have these new FED accounting rules, which basically means who ratios are lower than they're reported, And even though it's phased in over a three year period, the market just perceives that they have to adopt those capital rules today, so to some extent, I think we have to fight through that. The good news is the banks are profitable, they can pay dividends. There's no changes happening on some of those major items like common and preferred dividends. So I think the attitude for the investors should be better than it is. But I think the pressure is really on the regional banks where the definition is changing on capital. I do think will work through it, but that continues to be the pressure point at the moment. So does that mean that we have to extend the BTFP and do you believe that they will extend that we don't have to extend it. It It would be nice to extend because it simply takes one issue off the table. The use of BTFP has been very limited. It's hovering around one hundred and nine billion for weeks and weeks, and so the banks who have used it have used it. Some may renew if given the opportunity, but if they don't, I don't think it's a big problem. It would be nice to do that. It would be nice to have some FDIC deposit insurance reform to be able to buy insurance on uninsured depositors. I'm not sure the FDIC is going to go there, so that would be my thought on that. So it sounds like the regional banks have a maturity profile that's not as dire as I think some of us were worried about. But I think about some of the assets that are sitting there. Are the regional banks kind of stuck like utilities where I'm in a flat yield curve, so I don't have a lot going on there. I have some things I may have to write off, but I just don't see a lot of growth ahead of me. And they don't have the diversification of some of the money center banks. Well, I actually think the diverse location is actually very good. I mean, you have office real estates very limited, even commercial real estates very limited. Within the C and I space, there's a lot of different mid size and small businesses that regional banks and even community banks do and provide a great service for that. The economy is healthier than I think folks realize. But even if it changes, the ability for companies to earn through is very good. What we see happening is actually less balance sheet growth but more turnover old loans that are at low yields, renewing at high yields. A new loan today is going on the books at eight percent, and that actually is very attractive, and it's going to cosset the mix to shift on netatrist margin. We think margins may actually bottom in the first quarter, if not sooner, and that will help the stocks. I think catch a little bit of a bid. Chris, just real quick here, final word on Ted Pick the idea of some of the succession at Morgan Stanley. Is it significant in terms of the direction of that bank or do you think that it's basically going to be a continuing of the guard. Well, the investment banking business is the highest margin business of these large international firms, so it didn't surprise me at all that he was the choice. I think that his leadership inside the company has been very well thought of for a long time, so it seemed to make sense. I think to some extent they want to put the best foot forward, not to be negative on the wealth management space, because it's certainly a huge driver. They picked up a lot of new customers from the First Republic failure in April and May, so there's a lot happening there. But it seemed to be kind of continuing on the investment banking Angela Chris Marrinac of Jenny Montgomery Scott. Thank you so much. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Lisa Abramowitz, and this is BloombergSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Wall St. veteran, Bitcoin advocate and CEO of Custodia Bank Caitlin Long returns to the podcast for another long talk about what's going on at the Fed, regulations regarding crypto legislation in the US and the state of changes occurring in the banking system that they most likely will not be able to avoid.Show Notes:Custodia BankCaitlin on Twitter

Don't let censorship and big tech keep you from the latest episode of Crashes & Taxes!   Join Rebecca as she discusses the hard topics and emerging news while giving you the crucial advice you need during these difficult times!   Join the Crashes & Taxes Telegram channel and follow us on Rumble to never miss a show!   https://t.me/crashesandtaxes https://rumble.com/c/RebeccaWalser     We're clearly in the midst of a severe, consistent lack of liquidity, but we keep seeing reports that the economy is strong. There's a reason why our economic indicators are so confusing and contradictory and it's currency manipulation.    Case in point: the Fed's BTFP initiative. It's a liquidity backstop to put funds in the hands of banks. The problem is: if we keep printing dollars at will, they just won't be worth anything.    In this episode, I explain what BTFP is and what it means for our economy.     Work With Us   If you're interested in working with us, use the link below to book a 15-minute intro call to see if we are a mutual fit.   Schedule a Call

An investigation of BTFP, the banking transcendental butterfly program

Crisis borrowing at the Fed's emergency BTFP surged this week to a new high as #bankingcrisis grows critical. We're seeing more and more signs of serious #creditcrunch which, if it continues like this, won't take long to imperil more markets and the general #economy. #recession  Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van MetreBloomberg: Ackman-Backed Builder Says 48 Lenders Rejected Apartment Projecthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-08/real-estate-builder-backed-by-ackman-says-lenders-rejecting-new-apartment-dealsTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityhttps://www.marketsinsiderpro.comhttps://www.PortfolioShield.netRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7THE EPISODESYouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLVurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MReason: https://bit.ly/3lt5NiHSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39XjrPodcastRepublic:https://bit.ly/3LH8JlVDISCLOSURESJeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter's activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA.

This week, Jack Farley host of the Forward Guidance podcast joins the show to discuss bank earnings a month on from the "March banking panic". We also discuss the Fed's weekly H.4.1 report which saw a slight uptick in the BTFP usage, and a slight reduction in the discount window borrowing. We then tie how all these factors will effect the economy and markets, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ — Lightspeed Podcast Opportunity Click here to learn more about Blockworks' upcoming Lightspeed podcast and submit an application to be one of our hosts! http://bit.ly/40J0jCx Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ — Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 — Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, I join Mike Ippolito on his weekly roundup edition of On The Margin to discuss bank earnings a month on from the "March banking panic". We also discuss the Fed's weekly H.4.1 report which saw a slight uptick in the BTFP usage, and a slight reduction in the discount window borrowing. We then tie how all these factors will effect the economy and markets, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Lightspeed Podcast Opportunity Click here to learn more about Blockworks' upcoming Lightspeed podcast and submit an application to be one of our hosts! http://bit.ly/40J0jCx -- Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 -- Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Welcome to Bond Investment Mentor! This is a podcast dedicated to helping community financial institutions master the art of fixed-income investments.In this episode:New Fed borrowing program and free guide (4:01) (DOWNLOAD HERE)Texas PSF update (8:29)Question: Managing information overload (11:06)Your "virtual Treasurer" (25:27)If you have questions about anything covered in this episode, please email me at Chris @ BondInvestmentMentor.com.Do you know someone who could benefit from this information? Please share this episode and podcast with them!You will find more articles, tips, and resources about fixed-income investing and portfolio management at BondInvestmentMentor.com. Check it out!Let's Connect via Social Media!LinkedIn: Christopher Nelson, CFAFacebook:  Bond Investment Mentor

(Aired March 30, 2023) Atlantico.com, BakersfieldDUILawyers.com, BTFP.com - Get into the minds of the Sherpas with this DomainSherpa Review! In this show, the Sherpas play The Domain Game (starting at the 23:58 mark), where they guess what certain domains were bought and sold for and discuss the reasons behind their evaluations. Today's domains are Atlantico.com, BakersfieldDUILawyers.com, and BTFP.com. They take a deep dive into recent Fed activity and current economic outlook. Josh gives us an update on his Pickleball exploits & the need for a focus and attention on domain investing;The Sherpas review a list of domains about to come up for auction on NameJet.com, including SleepingDisorders.com, SleepProblems.com, AshvilleHomes.com, and Crocodile.com. They also review a domain from a member of the domain community, Skylight.gg. Also, DomainSherpa is now integrating with Muse.ai for episode transcripts and an AI-driven video player to easily look for topics, words, phrases, etc., and jump to the points in the video where they occur. Let us know your feedback! Plus, all DomainSherpa podcasts are now up on our YouTube channel at DS.tv and much more! JT is joined by Drew, Braden & Josh - so be sure to tune in!!

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU'LL LEARN:Global perspectives and insightsTwitter debates: QE returns or not?Predicting the 10YR-2YR inversion's futureDispelling Bitcoiners' mistrust in the banking systemThe impact of immediate withdrawals on banks' cash reservesShadow banking and insurance companies under the microscopePiecing together the European inflation & bond yield puzzleDebating the debt spiral scenarioFrom problem talk to finding solutionsForecasting the oil market: 6 months & 1-year outlooksReal estate and REITs in times of high debt and interest ratesUnexplored insights: What's being overlooked?Examining inflation stickiness in today's economyBOOKS AND RESOURCESMacro Alf's Website and ContentMacro Alf's TwitterNEW TO THE SHOW?Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs.Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool.Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets.P.S The Investor's Podcast Network is excited to launch a subreddit devoted to our fans in discussing financial markets, stock picks, questions for our hosts, and much more! Join our subreddit r/TheInvestorsPodcast today!SPONSORSHave peace of mind knowing River holds Bitcoin in multi-sig cold storage with 100% full reserves.Easily diversify beyond stocks and bonds, and build wealth through streamlined CRE investing with EquityMultiple.Let an expert do your taxes from start to finish so you can relax with TurboTax.Have Commonwealth Private's Private Bankers take the time to understand your goals and tailor solutions that create less for you to do and more for you to enjoy.What does happen when money and big feelings mix? Tune in to find out on the new podcast, Open Money, presented by Servus Credit Union.Get the professional support you need to prepare for your future career with UBC Sauder School of Business.Make connections, gain knowledge, and uplift your governance CV by becoming a member of the AICD today.Get yourself a Blockstream Jade -- An all-in-one, bitcoin-only hardware wallet that makes protecting your bitcoin so easy. Use the coupon code Fundamentals to get 10% off.Set, track, and manage your financial goals as your life evolves with Scotia Smart Investor.Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Today Jack interviews Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James Financial, and Joseph Wang, author at https://fedguy.com/, for a conversation on how the recent banking turmoil has muddled the Federal Reserve's inflation-fighting mission. Woodward, a banking veteran with a rare understanding of the regional banks' investment portfolio, gives a glimpse into the interest-rate exposure (“duration”) of the mid-sized and community bank community that is unavailable by just looking at public filings.   Woodward argues that Silicon Valley Bank's (SVB) fall was not due to its interest rate risk management and that the Federal Reserve is to blame. Wang vehemently (but very politely) disagrees and what ensues is a masterclass on the most salient issues facing the U.S. banking industry. Filmed on Thursday, March 23, 2023, a day after the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.00% at the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. __ Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreak Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:59) Joseph's Take On March Federal Reserve Meeting (FOMC) (04:59) Is The Fed To Blame For The Fall Of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)? (12:35) Available-For-Sale (AFS) vs. Held-To-Maturity (HTM) Accounting Treatment (26:16) Public.com Ad (27:20) Was Silicon Valley Bank's Lack of Interest Rate Hedges Negligent? (34:30) There's No Way To Hedge Perfectly" (41:10) Uninsured Deposit Base As A New Vulnerability For U.S. Banks (53:01) The Psychological Aspect of Bank Runs (57:07) Bernanke on The Great Depression: Bad Visuals Are Self-Fulfilling Prophecies (01:00:06) Should The FDIC Deposit Guarantee Be Raised? (01:02:39) Will Bank Turmoil Cause Banks To Curb Lending? (01:06:41) How Many More Times Will The Fed Hike (If At All)? (01:08:39) BTFP is NOT Quantitative Easing, Says Joseph Wang (01:10:13) Central Banking 101 (01:14:22) Closing Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

These few weeks have been turbulent for the markets to say the least, with 3 of the largest banks that support crypto winding down, USDC stablecoin de-pegging and more developments happening in real time.   Is this the end for crypto, or are we on the cusp of another bull-run?   Today we have Hal Press, founder of North Rock Digital who is known on Twitter for his timely and accurate calls, such as  the ETH Merge trade and more recently, his thesis on why USDC will return to peg. In this episode, he shares with us: Thoughts & how to navigate the recent market situation Outlook for BTC vs ETH Thesis on Stacks How to identity and assess narratives like a pro   Host: Jason Choi @mrjasonchoi . Not financial advice.     Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Introduction to the US banking situation (00:09:13) – Is Bitcoin a credible Store-of-Value? (00:15:59) – Balaji's prophecy of $1M BTC in 90 days (00:20:25) – Thoughts on BTFP (00:23:49) – Will Bitcoin de-correlate from equities? (00:27:05) – Outlook for BTC vs ETH (00:31:17) – Impacts of upcoming BTC Halving (00:33:38) – Thesis on Stacks (00:44:19) – Tips on identifying narratives early Sponsor message: Filecoin is enabling open services for data, built on top of IPFS.   Today, Filecoin focuses primarily on storage as an open service, but looks to build the infrastructure to store, distribute and transform data.   Join the Space Warp program (Live until March 2023) to be among the first to build on the Filecoin Virtual Machine (FVM) https://spacewarp.fvm.dev/     More Resources: Guest Hal Press' Twitter: https://twitter.com/NorthRockLP North Rock Digital's Website: https://northrockdigital.com/   Blockcrunch Blockcrunch VIP: https://blockcrunch.substack.com/ Blockcrunch Twitter: https://twitter.com/theBlockcrunch Jason Choi's Twitter: https://twitter.com/mrjasonchoi     Disclaimer: The Blockcrunch Podcast (“Blockcrunch”) is an educational resource intended for informational purposes only. Blockcrunch produces a weekly podcast and newsletter that routinely covers projects in Web 3 and may discuss assets that the host or its guests have financial exposure to. Views held by Blockcrunch's guests are their own. None of Blockcrunch, its registered entity or any of its affiliated personnel are licensed to provide any type of financial advice, and nothing on Blockcrunch's podcast, newsletter, website and social media should be construed as financial advice. Blockcrunch also receives compensation from its sponsor; sponsorship messages do not constitute financial advice or endorsement.   Full disclaimer: https://blockcrunch.substack.com/about  

The debate over whether the Fed hikes by 25bp or decides to pause at tomorrow's meeting seems less important when you consider that an estimated $440B of its BTFP facility has already been utilized. Would you like to learn more about Jackson Square Capital or receive Inside Markets as a daily email? Join the Jackson Square Capital community by sending an email to hello@jacksonsquarecap.com.

This week, our institutional team discusses the news from UBS & CS and the continued weakness in certain regional banks despite significant support. They also explore the outperformance of crypto, the upcoming Fed meeting, and the differences between the new BTFP facility and QE. Additionally, they discuss the latest updates on DeFi including an update on the Euler hack, the Uniswap V4 delay, the Arbitrum airdrop and where that is trading. Lastly, they cover flows on the exchange and the recent increasing dominance of BTC. Tune in for an in-depth analysis on all of this and more and their potential impact on institutional investors.

The halcyon days of quantitative easing made us all forget one simple truth. That in the annals of financial history, bank runs are numerous and inveterate. Like the coming of spring or another movie from the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Except that the Great Financial Crisis did in practice, if not in law, change the game for all time. There are now 4 unimpeachable megabanks enameled with Too-Big-Too-Fail status and unlimited deposit insurance. And there are all the other banks, to which depositors are merely unsecured lenders. But even then, The Fed and the Treasury are clothed in immense power, and can intervene in any financial calamity if they deem it to be systemically important. Thus, in the wake of even Silicon Valley Bank's collapse, they created the Bank Term Funding Program or BTFP. Do I really know what its provisions are? Of course not. I'm on Twitter too much to know the details.But we must ask the question, is this just Quantitative Easing by another name? And in the end, do all crises lead to unlimited easing by one road or another? For there is one thing that the events of 2008 made impossible. The collapse of collateral anywhere in the West. 

欢迎收听雪球和喜马拉雅联合出品的财经有深度，雪球，国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台，聪明的投资者都在这里。听众朋友们大家好，我是主播匪石-34，今天分享的内容叫2023年第一只黑天鹅---来自大洋彼岸，来自天弘基金胡超。近期最为热门的事件就是美国硅谷银行（SVB）光速倒闭，以及其给欧美资本市场带来的冲击。称为光速并不过分，SVB于3月10日在与资本市场进行23年一季度业绩沟通中宣布了一系列的战略更新，包括出售210亿美元的债券资产，录得损失18亿美元；增加债券融资以锁定融资成本并提供流动性支持；以及，宣布再融资22.5亿美元应对亏损并提供流动性支持。市场对此决定表现出大幅恐慌，公司股价当天大幅下挫超60%，盘后续跌超20%。同时，大量储户要求取款，出现进一步挤兑。关于该事件及影响的解读已经非常充分了，导致硅谷银行陷入困境的主要原因包括：（1）业务集中于单一行业：硅谷银行主要从事科技创新企业业务；（2）期限错配：负债端期限较短，而资产端期限较长，美联储加息导致收益率曲线倒挂；（3）偏离主业：过去两年，硅谷银行吸收了大量存款，但是贷款投放缓慢，资产端以投资资产（国债及MBS）为主；（4）客户挤兑：由于持续加息，科技公司的IPO进展缓慢，初创企业提取存款满足日常支出需求。其实我们认为，最主要的原因还是集中在客户挤兑上。在出事之前，硅谷银行是华尔街新贵，自2020年3月疫情冲击的底部，股价约为130美元，到2021年11月顶部，股价到达760美元，累计上涨超500%，位列全美第16大商业银行。当时大部分分析师都认为，公司聚焦科技创新企业使其实现了低成本的情景获客，这是大量银行想而不可得的一种方式。关于期限错配，大部分银行都存在期限错配。以国内银行为例，我们经常能看到30年的房贷，但是有谁会存30年的定期呢？银行本身经营的就是融短贷长的业务。关于偏离主业，硅谷银行投资的都是美国国债和MBS，这些资产的质量较高，仅仅是因为利率上行导致估值下降，持有到期无法得到兑付的风险大大小于贷款。这也是BTFP的核心之一，银行用高质量的国债和MBS做抵押，获得现金满足储户提取需求。最主要的问题还是挤兑。银行最怕的就是挤兑，没有哪家银行能够承受一天之内50%的客户来取钱。SVB提出的战略更新，其实是管理层应对当前利率环境和经济环境的一种预判，没有推波助澜的挤兑，或不至于演绎至此。对于硅谷银行出现的问题，政府反映极其迅速：3月11日凌晨，加州监管机构宣布联邦存款保险公司对其进行接管，后者亦发布申明，所有受保护储户存款将获得保护。此外，美联储、财政部及联邦存款保险公司发表联合声明，从13日，储户可以支取所有现金不受影响，并且推出银行定期融资计划来预防未来银行可能出现的挤兑事件。因为硅谷银行资产质量较高，从技术上来看，国债及MBS到期正常兑付的概率较大，银行定期融资计划机制有助于缓解类似银行出现的短期流动性压力。硅谷银行规模在全美排名第16位，定位于区域性银行，在资产端尚未引起美国金融行业的系统性风险。但是在负债端，如果美国储户出于担忧，大量挤兑类似区域银行的存款，可能会导致风险进一步蔓延，届时就需要政府更强力的背书来稳定信心对于全球资本市场的影响1、欧洲市场银行业是欧洲市场的重要构成部分，所以13日，欧洲股市基本录得较大跌幅，主要还是反应对于硅谷银行事件扩散的担忧。消息面，汇丰银行拟以1英镑价格收购硅谷银行的英国子公司，算是得到了妥善解决；2、亚洲市场中国境内有一家浦发硅谷银行，是浦发银行与硅谷银行合资的银行，拥有规范的公司治理架构，有独立经营的资产负债表，且受中国相关法规监管，预计影响不大；香港市场在3月10日已经有所反应硅谷银行事件的影响，13日录得反弹。部分在香港上市的公司也陆续披露在硅谷银行存款的情况，大都占比很小，BTFP机制出来之后，理论上这些存款也都可以得到保护。但是，我们之前提到，港股市场经常会因为全球某些事件而受到拖累，这次也是一样。越南市场跟硅谷银行事件基本没关系，越南没有离岸上市公司、银行业也相对封闭、大部分银行都还在担忧境内房地产市场，而无暇顾及高科技企业。事件会不会改变美联储的货币政策路径？这是很多投资人关注的问题，实际上从联邦基金利率期货隐含的加息概率也能发现，市场确实预期美联储会稍微放缓加息节奏，以避免更多金融机构受过高利率的影响而出现类似硅谷银行一样的情况。我们倾向于认为，美联储货币政策具有其一致性，当前首要任务依然是控制通胀，一两家银行的倒闭尚不至于其改变货币政策路径，而且美联储有充足的手段应对这些风险，这是我们当前的基准假设情景。

On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Alfonso & Andreas discuss the continued fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, and what it means for markets. The Fed's H.4.1 report was released this past week, which saw the balance sheet increasing by roughly $300 Billion. The balance sheet increase consisted of a record $152.9 billion usage in the Fed's discount window, $11.9 billion in the Fed's new BTFP facility & a final $142.8bn to guarantee all deposits at SVB and Signature Bank. With a rally in risk asset's, many viewed this as the return of QE, similar to the 2019 repo crisis. In this episode, we discuss whether this is really the return of QE, or not and what it will mean for markets in 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.7% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to public.com/macrotradingfloor *26-week T-bill rate (as of 3/19/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees. **As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22). -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://www.themacrocompass.com/ Subscribe To Steno Research: https://stenoresearch.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Global Policy Watch: Bailout Pe Bailout Pe BailoutInsights on global policy issues relevant to India— RSJWhere do I start this week? Maybe with a spot of self-promotion. Pranay and I were guests on the popular Hindi podcast Puliyaabazi. I have been a long-time fan, so it was nice to be a guest there. Pranay usually co-hosts this with Saurabh and Khyati, but this time, he was on the other side. I felt a bit like Uday Chopra, who is only in the film because he is the producer's brother. Anyway, I think a good time was had by all as we covered a wide variety of topics - Enlightenment and why it didn't happen in India (short answer: there wasn't any need, really), why we write this newsletter (majboori) and the usual quota of Bastiat, Smith and Rorty (showing off). Do listen if you have time (of course, you do).Moving on. Here is a quick run-through of what's gone on since my last post. Another US regional bank, Signature Bank, stared into the abyss with depositors making a run to withdraw their money as analysts looked around for large unrealised losses sitting on banks' balance sheets. Fed officials spent their weekend hawking the other failed bank, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), to potential buyers. But who in their right mind will buy out a troubled bank in these times? More so after all the trouble that the likes of JP Morgan Chase had buying out such banks during the financial crisis of 2009. Running out of options, the Fed, the Treasury and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced an unprecedented bailout of all depositors of SVB and any other bank that will be in a similar hole in future. Simply put, FDIC will guarantee all deposits and not just those below $250,000 for which there's insurance. To be sure, the equity shareholders and those holding unsecured corporate bonds won't be bailed out. They will lose their shirts. So, this isn't a repeat of the 2009 bailouts. The Fed then went a step further to address the root cause of the problem. Banks are sitting on huge held-to-maturity (HTM) losses on the securities they hold because the interest rates have moved too far up too quickly. And they have a liquidity issue if there are continued withdrawals from the depositors. If they sell their securities today to meet their commitments to give depositors their money when they ask for it, they will have to sell them at a loss. This substantial loss will mean they will need to raise capital from shareholders to keep themselves solvent as per Fed requirements. But who will give them money in this market? Uninsured depositors who play out this game-theory scenario in their minds will therefore withdraw more of their money. Ideally, if they play the scenario right as a collective, they shouldn't. But as individuals, they will make a run on the bank. Soon, the bank will be in a death spiral, and this is what happened at SVB and Signature Banks. The last-minute solution devised by Fed was the creation of what's termed the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP). Here's how Fed sees BTFP:“The additional funding will be made available through the creation of a new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP), offering loans of up to one year in length to banks, savings associations, credit unions, and other eligible depository institutions pledging U.S. Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, and other qualifying assets as collateral. These assets will be valued at par. The BTFP will be an additional source of liquidity against high-quality securities, eliminating an institution's need to quickly sell those securities in times of stress.With approval of the Treasury Secretary, the Department of the Treasury will make available up to $25 billion from the Exchange Stabilization Fund as a backstop for the BTFP. The Federal Reserve does not anticipate that it will be necessary to draw on these backstop funds.”If you didn't have any background to this situation and just read the above note from the Fed, you'd be forgiven if you thought here was a central bank of a developing world economy figuring out a short-term jugaad to solve a crisis at hand. But the Fed didn't just stop here. After all, like the Queen in Through The Looking Glass, it can believe in six impossible things before breakfast. Leaving their struggles to find a buyer for Signature Bank behind, they put together a unique Barjatya style “hum saath saath hain” deal and nudged a number of banks to do their bit to shore up confidence in the banking system: (as CNBC reports)“A group of financial institutions has agreed to deposit $30 billion in First Republic in what's meant to be a sign of confidence in the banking system, the banks announced Thursday afternoon.Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase will contribute about $5 billion apiece, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will deposit around $2.5 billion, the banks said in a news release. Truist, PNC, U.S. Bancorp, State Street and Bank of New York Mellon will deposit about $1 billion each.“This action by America's largest banks reflects their confidence in First Republic and in banks of all sizes, and it demonstrates their overall commitment to helping banks serve their customers and communities,” the group said in a statement.“This show of support by a group of large banks is most welcome, and demonstrates the resilience of the banking system,” The Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said in a joint statement.”Remind me now, sometime in the past, I have accused Indian policymakers of what's called isomorphic mimicry. It is a concept developed by Lant Pritchett et al to explain the tendency of governments to mimic other governments' successes, replicating processes, systems, and even products of the “best practice” examples without actually developing the functionality of the institutions they are imitating. Policymaking in developing countries often falls prey to this. A good example of this is imitating the green energy policies implemented in Sweden (a $60,000 per capita economy) in India (a $2000 per capita economy) which has neither the state capacity to implement nor the public readiness to accept such policies. Why am I bringing up isomorphic mimicry here? Well, because I never imagined a day shall dawn when the US policymakers take a leaf out of what India did when faced with a crisis. What the Fed did to save Signature Bank is isomorphic mimicry flowing the other way. To refresh your memory, here's a Business Standard report (Mar 13, 2020) on what the Finance Ministry and RBI did to save Yes Bank in 2020:“Hours after the Cabinet approved reconstruction scheme for YES Bank, private lenders ICICI Bank, HDFC, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Axis Bank came to the cash-strapped bank's rescue. While the SBI had earlier announced its decision to purchase 49 per cent shares, both ICICI Bank and HDFC are set to invest Rs 1000 crore each with Axis Bank pouring Rs 600 crore to pick up 60 crore shares of the troubled lender and Kotak Mahindra infusing an equity capital of Rs 500 crore under the RBI's bailout plan.The developments took place soon after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that other investors were also being invited.”I guess one way to look at this is if you let fiscal dominance become the central canon of how you manage your economic policy, you will eventually reach the same place as other economies (mostly developing) that have indulged in the same for years. The monetary authorities in the U.S. have been accommodating the fiscal profligacy of the treasury for years. This was accentuated during the pandemic. Trillions of dollars were pumped in to save the economy. I'm not sure how much the economy needed saving then. But that bill has come now. First in the shape of inflation, followed by rapid, unprecedented rate hikes and the inevitable accidents that are showing up now. Almost certainly, a recession will follow. Isomorphic mimicry of Latin American monetary policy indeed. Anyway, that was not the only bailout of the week. We also had Credit Suisse almost going under in a bad case of deja vu to those who have seen 2009. Here's CNBC on this:“Credit Suisse announced it will be borrowing up to 50 billion Swiss francs ($53.68 billion) from the Swiss National Bank under a covered loan facility and a short-term liquidity facility.The decision comes shortly after shares of the lender fell sharply Wednesday, hitting an all-time low for a second consecutive day after its top investor Saudi National Bank was quoted as saying it won't be able to provide further assistance. The latest steps will “support Credit Suisse's core businesses and clients as Credit Suisse takes the necessary steps to create a simpler and more focused bank built around client needs,” the company said in an announcement.In addition, the bank is making a cash tender offer in relation to ten U.S. dollar denominated senior debt securities for an aggregate consideration of up to $2.5 billion – as well as a separate offer to four Euro denominated senior debt securities for up to an aggregate 500 million euros, the company said.”What's that word that starts with C and was used a lot during the pandemic? Well, that C word is knocking at the doors of global finance right now. It is not a contagion yet. But the odds of it happening have significantly gone up in the past week.I will close this by covering the two discussion themes emerging from these events. First, what happens to the hawkish stance the Fed had taken a couple of weeks back on more rapid rate hikes in the light of inflation being sticky and inflation expectations being anchored? This, as I have written earlier, is of real interest to India and its policymaking stance. The Fed is in an absolute bind now before its meeting on Wednesday to take a call on rates. A rate hike in the current environment will make the weak banks look even more vulnerable despite the deposit backstop and the additional liquidity available from BTFP. And who knows what other accidents are lurking that will show up as the rates go higher? Does the Fed want to risk financial instability? On the other hand, inflation is real, and it is an election year. Runaway inflation will mean the eventual taming of it, and the recession that will follow will be hard and long. Who wants to preside over that? I see almost zero chance of a rate hike in this cycle. The Fed might wait till May to resume raising rates after it has weathered this risk of banking contagion and waiting for the April inflation data. But even then, the core problem remains. Further rate hikes will expose weak players, and that will mean we will have accidents. So long as they are small and contained, it is worth the risk of raising rates. But who can predict the nature of the accidents?Second, there's some kind of war that's broken out on social media on who is responsible for the collapse of SVB and Signature. There are those who believe it is the Fed whose actions over the past three years are solely responsible for the situation we are in now. The crux of the argument is that the Fed forecasts the interest rate and then it sets the rate. Banks take bets on long-term securities based on these forecasts. This is called duration risk. If the Fed then sets the rate that's so far removed from their own forecasts, what do poor treasury folks in Banks do? Plus, it is the Fed that has been making the rules since the GFC to direct a whole lot of bank liquidity into the purchase of long-term government bonds. The whole system is rigged by the Fed, and when things go wrong, it cannot pontificate on the risk management practices of banks. The counter to this is that the Fed only puts out an interest forecast based on the data (esp on inflation) that's available. When the incoming data changes, its forecast changes. This deviation is in a narrow band in usual times. In unusual times like what we've been through in the past two years, you may have a bigger variance. Banks have multiple ways to hedge duration risks. Instead of looking at the Fed to apportion blame, one should look at how conveniently the depositors of SVB - the VCs, startups and other cool people - jumped ship at the first sign of trouble when they know such a collective deposit withdrawal will make the situation worse. It is incredibly stupid of this deposit base that prides itself on its ability to see further, take long-term bets and dimension risks better than others, that it could not have the patience to stand by a bank that has served them well. The problem of SVB bank, according to this lot, is they were over-reliant on a lopsided deposit base, and that deposit base acted most stupidly. I think both these debates are going to rage on for some time. The Fed has slipped down the path where it has allowed fiscal dominance to overrule prudent policymaking. It is quite difficult to retrieve ground from there unless you have a Fed Chair with the intellectual heft and drive to restore balance. Equally, asset liability matching (ALM) is a core responsibility of banks. They are supposed to diversify their base of customers, monitor duration risks, and stress-test their balance sheet. All the strutting around as a cool disruptive bank or hanging out with your clients should not distract you from that fundamental truth. You take your eye off it, you veer off the road.    Advertisement: Admissions to Takshashila's Post-graduate Programme in Public Policy (PGP) are now open. This is a fantastic opportunity if you want to dive deep into public policy while pursuing your work responsibilities.India Policy Watch: Milking Consumers and Producers, All at OnceInsights on burning policy issues in India— Pranay KotasthaneWe harp on Hayek's paper, The Use of Knowledge in Society, in this newsletter. Price is a vital signal, a decentralised coordination mechanism between producers and consumers. And so, when governments prohibit its functioning, bizarre things happen. Let's analyse the consequences of price distortion using an ongoing situation — the milk shortage in Karnataka. A bit of background to set things up. Milk is an ‘essential' commodity. Its essentiality is not just a matter of fact or reason but also a carte blanche for Indian governments to regulate the production, supply, and distribution of any commodity that is classified as essential under the Essential Commodities Act (ECA), 1955. In practical terms, it means that the government fixes procurement prices, caps consumer prices, and often owns and runs everything that lies between these the producer and the consumer.So is the case with milk in most states, including Karnataka. The Karnataka Milk Federation (KMF) is a dairy cooperative under the Department of Cooperation, Government of Karnataka. It procures nearly 50 per cent of all the milk that is produced in the state. It sells products under the brand name Nandini. Nearly 50 per cent of its consumption happens in the capital, Bengaluru. Government ownership complicates and comicalises the situation in a way that can only be equalled by a Priyadarshan comic flick. See, for instance, what has happened due to a milk supply chain disruption over the last few weeks. As the summer began early this year, the demand for milk rose sharply. A glass of majjige (buttermilk) or lassi is a wonderful refresher in the heat. Simultaneously, the supply drops in the summer months. Natural adaptation dictates that animals produce less milk than usual in the heat. A bout of lumpy skin disease has further exacerbated the gap between demand and supply this year. For an ordinary product, a rise in prices would iron out this demand-supply gap quickly. With an increase in prices, consumers will rationalise consumption, while the producers will work harder to increase the supply. But when governments own the supply chain, price rises are defenestrated, and a chain of bizarre events emerges.First, electoral concerns circle over pricing decisions like vultures. In this particular case, the government will not touch the price caps with a barge pole because the Karnataka elections are due in May. So the government tries to increase prices in a roundabout way: increase the maximum retail price (MRP) but offer a reduced quantity of milk for the same packet price.Second, shortages abound. Since the administered price rises have not done enough to make the demand-supply gap go away, milk shortages have emerged. The rich can well afford to buy premium milk at higher prices from other suppliers. But for the poor, the milk packets disappear. Instead of paying a slightly higher price until the supply rises again, the less-privileged consumers are left only with an empty glass.Third, the government resorts to blaming private businesses. Someone has to be blamed, and as so often happens in India, businesses get the flak. See this report in The Hindu, which casually places the blame on private players who are now willing to offer higher prices to the dairies and farmers. The report says:“Private players purchasing milk from the retail market to sustain their businesses in milk products is said to be causing a disruption…“He also said private dairies were procuring milk directly from farmers in rural areas by offering a higher price, thus reducing the union's procurement.”We should have been celebrating private players that are offering a better deal to farmers, given the scarcity. Instead, they have become villains. And fourth, a quotidian issue becomes a front for inter-state tensions. The Karnataka government blames dairies in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu for offering higher prices to farmers within Karnataka, while the Tamil Nadu government is blaming private companies from Andhra Pradesh!Funny, the kinds of things that happen when the government enters and obstructs a control system called “prices”.Even as this satire unfolds, the root cause of the milk shortages isn't even being talked about. The Bangalore Milk Union president admitted that “many small milk producers have given up on rearing cows as it has become unsustainable”. Though he doesn't mention the underlying reason for this change, the bans on cow slaughter and recent attacks on people transporting cattle surely have reduced the incentives for farmers from stepping into this minefield called milk production. HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters* [Newsletter] Economic Forces is a must-read newsletter for all public policy enthusiasts.* [Paper] This paper on the effect of a landmark policyWTF called the Freight Equalisation Scheme explains how good intentions can sometimes produce terrible policies. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

Welcome to The Bitcoin Layer, where we bring you research, analysis, and education for all things bitcoin and macro. In this episode, Joe walks through the Fed and Treasury Department's new BTFP facility to prop up bank liquidity, how it functions a a hybrid between repo and QE, and what impact it's likely to have on asset prices given the stimulative nature of valuing devalued collateral at par. New YouTube videos every Monday, Wednesday & Friday. New Substack posts every Tuesday, Thursday & Saturday. This video is brought to you by Passport, a Bitcoin hardware wallet by Foundation Devices. Use promo code BITCOINLAYER for $10 off your Passport at http://thebitcoinlayer.com/foundation. Subscribe to TBL on Substack: https://TheBitcoinLayer.substack.com Follow TBL on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer Follow TBL on LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/TheBitcoinLayer Follow TBL on Instagram: https://instagram.com/TheBitcoinLayer Follow TBL on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thebitcoinlayer Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch Sign up for the free Monetary History course on @SaylorAcademy : http://sylr.org/MonetaryHistory Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: thebitcoinlayer@zbd.gg Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc Research Associate Joe Consorti's Twitter: https://twitter.com/JoeConsorti Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball Block Height 781268 #TheBitcoinLayer #JoeConsorti #QE #Quantitative #Easing #FED #Bank #Reserve ##Crash #Market #Inflation #Hikes #Rates #Markets #Update #Bitcoin #BTC #Treasuries #Correlation #Market #Recession #Currency #Macro #Analysis #Investment #News #Finance #Economics #Education The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on Soundwise

This episode was recorded in two parts, with a special segment added on March 14 to address the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York. Premium subscribers gained access to this added segment the same day it was recorded. Here it has been merged into the same file to create a single episode. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast. Jake Schurmeier of Harbor Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his experience at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which overlapped with a full monetary policy cycle, and what this may tell us about future Fed policy -- especially in light of the events surrounding Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York. Content Highlights The guest spent several years at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's open markets trading desk, where he was responsible for implementing monetary policy and monitoring the treasury market (3:41); In this role he experienced the whole life cycle of quantitative tightening to quantitative easing, concluding with the liquidity injections that accompanied the Covid pandemic (5:13); Chances are "pretty high" that the Fed reins in quantitative tightening, or QT, in light of the events around Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) and Signature Bank of New York (SBNY). A lot of it depends on the uptake of the Bank Term Financing Program, or BTFP, the new lending facility (6:49); Can these measures save the business model of regional banks? (10:26); The possibility of moral hazard introduced by regulators (12:57); Where does this leave interest rate policy? Fifty basis points is probably off the table, but a 25bps raise is certainly in the offing... (14:10) In general, what kinds of catalysts will the Fed be looking for to shift from QT to QE? (16:20); Was there ever any talk of negative interest rates? Did the Fed ever have discussions about buying stocks (21:00); Background on the guest (25:33); The Fed's purchases of mortgage-backed securities was in retrospect unnecessary on the scale and duration with which it happened during Covid (28:24); For a quasi-government organization, the Fed acts quite quickly. Faster than corporations. A look inside the Fed's decision-making process (32:05); Yes, Fed officials and employees are required to disclose their stock transactions (37:29). Not investment advice. For more information on the guest, visit HarborCapital.com.

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