Podcast appearances and mentions of lori calvasina

RBC's Lori Calvasina joins to talk about what's in store for US stocks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this special MLK Holiday edition of Bloomberg Daybreak, host Nathan Hager discusses: Stocks are coming off three straight years of double digit gains..What will 2026 hold? We hear from Cameron Dawson, the Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth and Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy, RBC Capital Markets Lost in the recent controversy over the investigation into Jay Powell and the Fed...Is monetary policy. Next week the central bank makes its first rate decision of the year. For more, we speak with Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent Michael McKee and Anna Wong, Chief US Economist for Bloomberg Economics We also look at the current status of Diversity Equity and Inclusion initiatives. For that we speak wit Bloomberg's Equality Reporter Jeff Green and Bloomberg reporter Heather Landy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This episode is sponsored by Fidelity Investments and the all-new Fidelity Trader+ platform. Try Fidelity's most powerful trading experience yet: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.fidelity.com/trading/trading-platforms?immid=100734&imm_pid=430504639&imm_aid=a&dfid=&buf=99999999⁠⁠⁠ Views, opinions, products, services, and strategies discussed are not endorsed or promoted by Fidelity Investments. Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital. They discuss a range of topics including market volatility, AI investment trends, consumer spending patterns, and economic forecasts. Calvasina highlights the increasing nervousness among investors regarding high valuations and the potential impact of delayed Fed rate cuts. She notes the importance of monitoring CapEx and regulatory changes, especially as they pertain to AI and tech sectors. The conversation touches on geopolitical dynamics with China and the upcoming US midterm elections, emphasizing their potential market implications. The session is rich with insights into the current market climate, investor sentiment, and future economic expectations. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

President Donald Trump is rolling back tariffs on more than 200 food products, from coffee and beef to bananas and orange juice, as the White House faces rising frustration from Americans over grocery prices. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett explains the administration's push for affordability and the persistence of inflation. Then, Legendary Filmmaker Ken Burns walks through his newest project, The American Revolution, and the stories that shaped the nation. Plus, RBC Capital Markets' Lori Calvasina breaks down market sentiment and Alphabet rallies after Berkshire Hathaway takes a new stake. Lori Calvasina - 09:13Kevin Hassett - 23:19Ken Burns - 35:11 In this episode:Ken Burns, @KenBurnsBecky Quick, @BeckyQuickJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkAndrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinKatie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

RBC's Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market.The big things you need to know:First, we see Friday's weaker-than-expected jobs report as having added some additional uncertainty to the US equity market outlook at a time when we've been on guard for choppiness for other reasons.Second, we reiterate our overweight stance on the S&P 500 Materials sector.Third, other things that jump out to us include the weakness in bitcoin and the deterioration in US equity flows and retail flows specifically, which add to our near-term concerns.

On this special Labor Day edition of Bloomberg Daybreak US, host Nathan Hager speaks with:1) Sarah House, Wells Fargo senior economist and Jennifer Lee, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Market on the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve and Fed independence. 2) Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy, RBC Capital Markets and Brian Levit, Global Market Strategist at Invesco on what to expect out of markets in the fall 3) Burt Flickinger, Managing Director at Strategic Resource Group, on the outlook for the retail sector. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Is it time to prepare for a bigger pullback in the AI trade? We discuss with Trivariate's Adam Parker, RBC Capital Markets' Lori Calvasina and Invesco's Brian Levitt. Plus, Bill Miller IV from Miller Value Partners weighs in crypto's wild ride. And, Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian tells us what he's expecting from Jackson Hole. 

Nvidia becomes the first company ever to hit a $4T valuation and the Nasdaq notched a record close. But is the rebound starting to feel stretched? Lori Calvasina of RBC joins with her take on positioning. Former USTR official Wendy Cutler on the latest trade headlines. Oppenheimer's Brian Schwartz on why he upgraded Microsoft and Jefferies' Sheila Kahyaoglu previews Delta's earnings.

The first half of the year is in the books, and stocks closed it out touching fresh record highs. But can the climb continue in the back half? Where RBC's Lori Calvasina sees the market heading next. Plus Oracle's next move after the company announces some cloud deals, and a check on the China trade after the country's manufacturing data shrinks for a 3rd straight month.Fast Money Disclaimer

RBC's Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market. In this special edition, Lori is joined by her colleagues Amy Wu Silverman (RBC Derivatives Strategist) and Ben Fisher (RBC Midwest Sales, who works closely with the firm's macro strategists). They discuss the current, messy state of the US equity market and the pickles investors are finding themselves in. Ben moderates the discussion, which was recorded live at the RBC EPIC Conference in NYC on June 4th, 2025.The four big topics covered:First, where Lori and Amy see US equity markets and volatility headed. Lori describes herself as neutral and reviews her new YE 2025 S&P 500 target of 5,730, which is driven by her valuation and earnings work and a macro backdrop that looks a bit better than it did in early April, but not as strong as it was in January. Amy highlights how both the right and left tails have gotten fatter recently, and runs through what she sees as the potential catalysts for a pick-up in volatility.Second, Amy and Lori's latest thoughts on investor sentiment and positioning. Amy highlights differences in recent behavior from retail investors (who were buying the dip) and institutional investors (who were more cautious and engaged in derisking and degrossing). She points out that hedging on the institutional side has not been short term in nature, due to uncertainty about when the hard data will deteriorate. Meanwhile, Lori notes that many of the investors she speaks with are in a holding pattern, waiting to see what happens next, and walks through a number of key questions that investors will be looking for the answers to in the next reporting season. She also highlights the messiness of recent investor sentiment and positioning data, which fell but never completely collapsed for institutional investors and has been rebounding rapidly after collapsing for retail investors.Third, Lori and Amy's thoughts on some of the biggest positioning trades in equities of late. Lori highlights why she sees the tug of war between mega cap Growth and Value continuing, the intersection of the mega cap Growth trade and US exceptionalism, and how tariffs opened a door to curiosity about regions outside the US that will be difficult to close. Meanwhile, Amy highlights increased activity regarding trades on China and Emerging Markets and how she believes that her clients are the most Euro curious she's seen in quite some time.Fourth, thoughts regarding the impact of the bond market on US equities. Lori runs through why 5% on 10-year yields would be a stumbling block for US equity market performance, while Amy highlights the potential for the inverse correlation between bonds and equities to break down as a key risk to monitor.

Dan Nathan hosts Lori Calvasina, Managing Director and Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC. They discuss market trends, economic indicators, and the impact of geopolitical events and tariffs on market performance. Lori shares her insights on equity targets, valuation concerns, and the influence of passive investing and institutional behavior. The conversation also covers the significant role of AI in corporate strategy, fluctuations in the 10-year yield, and investor reactions to recent market movements. Lori emphasizes the importance of adaptability and a data-driven approach in forecast and strategy amidst market uncertainties. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge and Lori Calvasina, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, break down the market action after the Fed left rates unchanged and a fresh wave of earnings. ARM and Skyworks report as semis stay in focus. Fed deep-dive with BNY Investments' Vincent Reinhart and Jefferies' David Zervos after fresh commentary from Fed Chair Powell. Jon Breaking down ARM's quarter with Benchmark analyst Cody Acree. Our Sara Eisen has an exclusive interview with Citadel CEO Ken Griffin on the markets, monetary policy, and Trump vs. Harvard. 

Solus Alternative Asset Management and RBC Capital Markets' Lori Calvasina weigh in on the trade tug of war. Plus, top tech investor Jeff Richards of Notable Capital weighs in on the volatility in that sector. And, BofA's Jill Carey Hall tells us where she sees small caps heading from here. 

Lori Calvasina of RBC Capital Markets and Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge discussing the ongoing equity pullback and Calvasina digs into why her S&P 500 bear case is now the base case. Our Megan Cassella reports on the White House's tariff plans targeting China, while Pippa Stevens breaks down the sharp decline in oil prices. Ralph Schlosstein, Evercore Chairman Emeritus and BlackRock Co-Founder, shares his market outlook during the ongoing market volatility. Rebecca Patterson, former Bridgewater Chief Investment Strategist, joins to offer her view on the macro, as well as gold and the dollar. FIS CEO Stephanie Ferris, in her first broadcast interview, on how the pipes of the financial system are handling the current trading volume surge.

Lori Calvasina, Chief US Equity Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, discusses her note this morning on why full recession pricing could send the S&P to 4,200. She speaks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When will the selling stop? We discuss with Solus' Dan Greenahus and Lori Calvasina from RBC Capital Markets. Plus, we hear from Malcolm Ethridge from Capital Area Planning Group after he bought one big name at the center of the recent market turmoil.  Meantime, we discuss if Apple is at a crossroads as that tech name gets hit with yet another bearish analyst call. Big Technology's Alex Kantrowitz and CNBC's tech reporter Steve Kovach both weigh in. And, top analyst Mark Mahaney tells us how he is navigating the volatility in the tech space. 

RBC's Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market. This week, we bring you a special edition of the podcast, recorded live at the RBC Financial institutions conference on March 5th, 2025. Ben Fisher (US Equity Sales, Midwest & Macro Sales Specialist) moderates a discussion with Lori Calvasina (Head of US Equity Strategy) and Amy Wu Silverman (Derivatives Strategist) on their latest views on the US equity market outlook and what they've been hearing from investors.

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan are joined by Lori Calvasina, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, to discuss various market trends. The episode delves into the current state of the stock market, major economic indicators, and the impact of geopolitical events and tariffs on market performance. Lori shares insights on the financial and energy sectors, the role of AI in corporate earnings, and the challenges of forecasting in an uncertain economic climate. The discussion also touches on interest rates, market valuations, and the potential for a rocky path ahead. Lori emphasizes the importance of a disciplined, data-driven approach to market analysis, while Guy and Dan underscore the significance of staying informed amidst market volatility. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia X: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

A packed show covering the latest in markets, earnings, and tech policy. Adam Kobeissi, Editor-in-Chief of The Kobeissi Letter, and Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, break down key market trends and positioning. A deep dive into Palantir's earnings with a head-to-head debate between Dan Ives of Wedbush and Jefferies analyst Brent Thill. Plus, Booz Allen Hamilton CEO Horacio Rozanski joins exclusively to discuss the ripple effects tariffs and Trump 2.0. Our Eunice Yoon has fresh reporting on the ground in China taking a look at how the economy there is handling tariffs. 

In this Christmas Day special edition of Bloomberg Daybreak with Nathan Hager: Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist at PGIM Fixed Income, discusses what the Fed will do in 2025. Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets and Cameron Dawson, the Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, break down what we can expect in equities Burt Flickinger, the Managing Director at Strategic Resource Group, brings us the winners and losers of the 2024 holiday retail season. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The format of this special edition of RBC's Markets in Motion is a little bit different from what we usually do, and runs a little bit longer than usual. In this episode, Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy, is joined by two of her macro partners at RBC Capital Markets, Head of US Rates Strategy, Blake Gwinn, and Equity Derivative Strategist Amy Wu Silverman. With 2024 winding down, all of their outlook reports out, and too many December investor meetings behind them to even count, these three thought leaders at RBC Capital Markets came together to discuss their thoughts on the equity market, the bond market, and volatility in the year ahead. The conversation took place on December 19th, 2024. We hope you enjoy the discussion and wish all of our regular listeners a very happy New Year.

In this episode, Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy, is joined by two of her macro partners at RBC Capital Markets, Head of US Rates Strategy, Blake Gwinn, and Equity Derivative Strategist Amy Wu Silverman. With 2024 winding down, all of their outlook reports out, and too many December investor meetings behind them to even count, these three thought leaders at RBC Capital Markets came together to discuss their thoughts on the equity market, the bond market, and volatility in the year ahead. The conversation took place on December 19th, 2024.

In this Christmas Day special edition of Bloomberg Daybreak with Nathan Hager: Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist at PGIM Fixed Income, discusses what the Fed will do in 2025. Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets and Cameron Dawson, the Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, break down what we can expect in equities Burt Flickinger, the Managing Director at Strategic Resource Group, brings us the winners and losers of the 2024 holiday retail season. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stocks closed out a down week with declines across the major averages on Friday, led to the downside by tech. Morgan Stanley Global Head of Thematic and Macro Investing Ellen Zentner on what she is telling clients and RBC's Lori Calvasina on what you need to know for the weeks ahead. Netflix is airing Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson and promotor of the fight, Nakisa Bidarian, discusses what the event means for Netflix, Paul and the future of streaming sports. Jefferies' Sheila Kahyaoglu on why defense stocks got hit this week—and what Elon Musk might have to do with it. Plus, FICO CEO William Lansing on the stock's rip higher and how the consumer looks from his vantage point. 

With an already-strong bull market getting an extra kick from anticipated policy help and loosening Fed policy into a sturdy economy … what's not to like? NewEdge's Cameron Dawson, Truist's Keith Lerner and Pointwealth Capital weigh in on where they see the markets – and your money – headed from here. Plus, Former Fed Governor Mishkin maps out what he is expecting from next week's CPI print. And, RBC's Lori Calvasina reveals her post-election playbook. 

At RBC's Global Industrials conference in Las Vegas, Vito Sperduto, Head of RBC Capital Markets U.S., and Lori Calvasina, Head of U.S. equity strategy talk about the key themes shaping equity markets right now, and how investors are thinking about and factoring in the potential impact of the US election.

Ford CFO John Lawler joins in an exclusive interview to discuss Q3 earnings, the company's guidance and what's ahead in the EV market. Lux Capital co-founder John Wolfe on launching Lux Labs to invest in the next American breakthrough and the rise in defense tech investing. Plus, RBC's Lori Calvasina on what she's watching for Big Tech earnings.

Equities just notched their fifth straight week of gains as optimism persists and the bull run enters its second year. Fundstrat's Tom Lee, NB Private Wealth's Shannon Saccocia, and RBC Capital Markets' Lori Calvasina share their expectations for Q4 and beyond. Plus, Wedbush Securities' Dan Ives defends his Tesla bull case on a difficult day for that stock. And, former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester reveals her expectations for rate cuts as inflation cools.

The S&P 500 touched an intraday record the day before the Fed decision, where Wall Street is split on whether to expect a 25 or 50-basis-point cut. RBC's Lori Calvasina, Vital Knowledge's Adam Crisafulli, and Neuberger Berman's Joe Amato all weigh in on their expectations and how the Fed could change the narrative. Shake Shack's CEO Rob Lynch joins for his first interview since taking the helm at the company in May, with his read on consumer spending and Shake Shack's place in the value menu wars. Plus Intuit's CEO on the company's new enterprise tools, Coursera's CEO on the parts of the world benefitting from AI, and an update on Elliott's activist battle with Southwest.

Welcome to RBC's Markets in Motion podcast, recorded September 9th, 2024. I'm Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Please listen to the end of this podcast for important disclaimers. Three big things you need to know: First, Friday's jobs report added to investors' uncertainty regarding the labor market, but the data point that concerned us from last week was the spike in Tech layoffs in the Challenger report. Second, election uncertainty has persisted with policy getting greater attention from both sides. We run through our US equity market read throughs from Trump's economic speech last week. Third, in our discussion of other updates from our high frequency indicators, we review what we're watching in terms of potential near-term downside levels for the S&P 500, sentiment, and the Semis trade. If you'd like to hear more, here's another 6 minutes. Now, let's jump into the details. Starting with Takeaway #1: Employment Uncertainty Has Grown After Friday's Jobs Report, But The Spike In Tech Layoffs In The Challenger Report Spooked Us The Most Regarding StocksRBC's economics team noted that while the report “doesn't point to a sharp contraction in the labor market, it also gave no indications that the broader cooling trend – which is not welcomed by the Federal Reserve – has in any way run its course.” From our seat in US equity strategy, we generally agree with the idea that the jobs report is still consistent with cooling and normalization as opposed to an economy on the cusp of recession. That being said, we were a little spooked by some of the details in the Challenger layoff report that came out earlier in the week. The overall level of layoffs moved up in August, but remained well below the spikes associated with past recessions, and was even a bit below the moves higher seen in 2023-2024 and 2015. What caught our attention was the spike in layoffs for Technology companies which wasn't as bad as those seen in late 2022 and early 2023, but otherwise rivals some of the worst spikes this industry has seen over time. This primarily worries us in regards to the Tech sector itself and the broader market by way of the rotation trade. Though layoff announcements moved up slightly in a few other industries, those were generally mild relative to history. Moving on to Takeaway #2: Election Uncertainty Persists, With Policy Getting Greater AttentionWe continue to see the US election as a key challenge that the US equity market will need to work through in coming months, due to the uncertainty that the event has injected into the outlook. We do usually see a pullback in the S&P 500 in September and October of Presidential election years, with a rebound afterwards. Thinking about today specifically, a number of companies referred to this idea that the election has injected some uncertainty into the outlook in their recent earnings calls. Meanwhile, Harris has pulled ahead of Trump in the PredictIt betting market and RCP polling average, but the race still looks quite close on these data sets, as well as in the polling for the swing states. We do believe the stock market has been paying attention to the event given the alignment we've continued to see between S&P 500 performance and expectations that Trump will win in betting markets. One of the primary things the stock market cares about regarding the election is domestic policy, and investors have been getting new information on the policy leanings of both Harris and Trump over the past few weeks. In our latest report, we've recapped our early thoughts on the stock market read throughs of Trump's domestic policy agenda as described in his speech to the Economic Club of New York last week. We think it's premature to put on any significant sector or industry trades...

RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy Lori Calvasina puts the past few trading days in context coming off of disappointing jobs numbers with Bloomberg's Paul Sweeney and Alix Steele.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Guy Adami, Danny Moses, and Dan Nathan delve into recent economic trends, including potential Fed rate cuts, inflation, and CPI updates. They analyze key sectors like consumer goods, airlines, and tech stocks while discussing current valuations and earnings reports. The gang also discusses their favorite car manufacturer/future robotaxi company Tesla. Special guest Lori Calvasina, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, shares her insights on the equity market landscape, the Russell 2000 index performance, and her revised S&P 500 price target of 5,700. The conversation also covers labor market trends, the impact of presidential election years, and the transformative potential of generative AI. The episode blends deep analytical insights with light-hearted pop culture references. Further Reading Home Insurance Premiums Are Surging—and States Are Allowing It (WSJ) Citadel Securities Crafts Plan to Shake Up Banks' Trading Desks (Bloomberg) Subscribe to our newsletter: https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe — About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money's Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They're offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we're here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. — Check out our show notes here See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. — Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod on Twitter or @riskreversalmedia on Threads — We're on social: Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Thomas @LizThomasStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

On this episode of Strategic Alternatives, we share a rebroadcast of the Meb Faber Show podcast episode, featuring Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in which she explains why the US market has become more sentiment driven in the post COVID era. She shares her thoughts on the valuations of the top 10 stocks and the broad market. She also touches on small cap stocks, takeaways from earnings season, and her early thoughts on 2025.

Is this slow grind more a show of the bull market's resilience or evidence of short-term fatigue? Adam Parker from Trivariate, UBS' David Lefkowitz and Ayako Yoshioka of Wealth Enhancement Group break down their point of view. Plus, RBC's Lori Calvasina revised her S&P outlook. She explains the reasoning behind that and where she thinks the market is headed in the second half. And, Amazon hit another record high – gaining more than 7% in one week. We tell you what is behind that rally.

Former PIMCO Chief Economist Paul McCulley gets you set for the next big data points the Fed is watching and what it means for the market. RBC's Lori Calvasina and BNY's Jake Jolly on market positioning. Plus, our Sara Eisen breaks down Nike's numbers before Barclays analyst Adrienne Yih dives deep on the stock reaction. Plus, Hunterbrook publisher and co-founder Sam Koppelman on their new report investigating Hims & Hers and why Hunterbrook Capital shorted the stock. 

On episode 147 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, to discuss: small cap stocks, Nvidia's valuation, waning short interest, potential upside surprises, mortgage rates, and much more! This episode is sponsored by Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Learn more about Goldman Sachs Asset Management Premium Income ETFs at: https://www.gsam.com Instagram: https://instagram.com/thecompoundnews Twitter: https://twitter.com/thecompoundnews LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/ Check out the latest in financial blogger fashion at The Compound shop: https://www.idontshop.com Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

RBC's Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market. This week, we are excited to have Chris Louney, Commodity Strategist on RBC's Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research team, guest hosting this week's episode while Lori is out.Three big things you need to know: First, while gold prices have had a strong rally this year, having hit record highs last month, we remain cautious. We think that gold is overvalued from the perspective of a number of key macro drivers and that there are some unrealized vulnerabilities to the pillars of gold's rally. While we are cautious, it's more because we do not think gold should be at such high levels just yet. Second, while May and June have seen a less weak and more rangebound trend for gold-backed ETPs, we are not convinced that investors are beginning to follow through just yet. Investors sold their gold holdings as prices rallied, and we've yet to see a sustained return to buying. Third, central bank demand has been a key pillar to the gold rally but as China's pause in purchasing showed, there are vulnerabilities. To be clear, we still think that central bank demand will continue to be strong, but there are reasons to be cautious on the volume at record prices and after such a sustained period of strength.

Today's guest is Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. She was recently named to Barron's 100 Most Influential Women in U.S. Finance. In today's episode, Lori explains why the US market has become more sentiment driven in the post COVID era. She shares her thoughts on the valuations of the top 10 stocks and the broad market. She also touches on small cap stocks, takeaways from earnings season, and her early thoughts on 2025. (1:11) Welcome to our guest, Lori Calvasina (3:50) Indicators and gauging market sentiment today (10:37) Current market valuations (13:08) Impact of upcoming election on financial markets (17:05) US small cap stocks setup (20:24) Value versus growth discussion (36:56) Lori's favorite indicators (42:37) Lori's most memorable investment ----- Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: 10 East is a membership-based investment firm founded by Michael Leffell, former Deputy Executive Managing Member of Davidson Kempner, focused on providing targeted exposure to private markets. Members invest at their discretion in single-investment and niche fund vehicles across private credit, real estate, private equity, and venture capital. Sponsor: Today's episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world's largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here. Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Stocks surge into the close but major averages ended May lower. RBC's Lori Calvasina on the path forward for the markets. Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen on shipping costs surging and how transports are impacting inflation. Siemens CEO Roland Busch on automation in manufacturing and how the European giant is positioning its portfolio mix.  

The Dow topped 40,000 for the first time ever before turning lower at the close. Cummins CEO Jennifer Rumsey on raising the company's long-term financial targets, plus the demand picture for its power generators amid the AI boom. The Bahnsen Group's David Bahnsen and RBC's Lori Calvasina break down where markets go from here. Earnings from Applied Materials and Take-Two. Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon on where we are in the semiconductor cycle. Our Melissa Repko on what Walmart's earnings mean about the state of the consumer. 

-Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets-Mark McCormick, Global Head of FX Strategy, TD Securities-Sonal Desai, Fixed Income CIO, Franklin TempletonLori Calvasina of RBC Capital Markets reacts to big swings in mega-cap tech stock prices, saying "growth investors get angsty." Mark McCormick of TD Securities discusses the historic moves in the Japanese Yen, saying the BOJ will be forced to tighten policy more than what's currently priced-in. Sonal Desai of Franklin Templeton previews Wednesday's Fed decision and shares her outlook on the bond market, saying the long end of the yield curve will move higher over time. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Is the stock market's indecisive start to the second quarter another pause on the way higher… or the stirrings of the first proper pullback in five months? RBC's Lori Calvasina gives her take. Plus, Disney won its proxy fight against Trian's Nelson Peltz. Top analyst Laura Martin from Needham breaks down what this might mean for the stock in the long run. And, Ford shares popped on some strong sales numbers. Phil Lebeau explains what this report means for the rest of the autos space and Ford's EV competitors. 

In Lori Calvasina's role as Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, assessing the interaction between macro variables like rates with top-down factors like the equity market multiple is critical. But important as well is an evaluation of markets from the bottoms up. And here, she not only seeks to pull together the views of colleagues doing strategy work in sector verticals, but also to actually read earning transcripts during reporting season to get a sense of what companies are saying. Her broad assessment of the outlook for corporate America is generally optimistic as she sees companies having come out of multiple stress exercises - trade wars, the Covid shock, and the inflation and monetary policy response in the Pandemic's aftermath among them - with a stronger defensive plan. Companies are harnessing technology and managing costs more effectively, leaving them less likely to be forced to reduce headcount. The result is a consumer holding up quite well.Our discussion touches on the Mag7 and how today's top-heavy portion of the market is similar and different to the highfliers of the tech bubble. For Lori, the valuation premium for names like NVDA and other mega cap tech stocks is justified by the premium of earnings growth they've been able to consistently deliver. We explore the impact of higher rates on the market's multiple and the relative performance of sectors as rates rise or fall. She likes energy, both for its high dividend yield, its strong relative performance as rates rise and the potential for a geopolitical tailwind. On this last front, asked about the market risks that she worries about, it is uncertainty on the global political front along with the US election. She also cites sentiment that may be too bullish and positioning that appears stretched. Lastly, we touch on Lori's recent recognition as one of Barron's Top 100 Most Influential Women in US Finance. Asked about industry efforts to empower female careers in finance, she's optimistic, arguing that it's critical to have not just a mentor but a sponsor as well to push you to the next level.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Lori Calvasina.

After a four month rally based on a Goldilocks economy, AI excitement and the prospect of an easier Fed – is the playbook changing as the first quarter winds down? Adam Parker from Trivariate Research and Jordan Jackson of JP Morgan Asset Management break down their forecasts. Plus, RBC's Lori Calvasina explains why she is bullish on the energy space. And, Goldman Sachs' Elizabeth Burton tells us her approach to diversifying your portfolio and the two “I's” she is excited about right now. 

The S&P 500 closes at a record high after hitting an intraday all-time high. The Nasdaq also notching an intraday record. RBC's Lori Calvasina and Bespoke's Paul Hickey break down the market action, plus earnings from Broadcom, Marvell, Costco, Gap, Docusign, MongoDB and Samsara. Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon dives deep into the Broadcom numbers and its AI exposure. CFRA's Arun Sundaram on Costco's quarterly results. Neiman Marcus CEO talks the luxury consumer and bringing tech to high-end shopping.  

RBC's Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market. This week, we are excited to have Chris Louney, Commodity Strategist on RBC's Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research team, guest hosting this week's episode while Lori is on vacation.Three big things you need to know: First, in our most recent analysis of global commodity investor flows, we have observed that total commodity investor AUM has started off the year on a weak note. Commodity-linked exchange traded products have continued to decline, led by gold, and commodity index AUM also weakened last month. This has set 2024 up for quite the balancing act, but we remain hopeful.Second, with gold playing such an outsized role in the weakness dominating commodity AUM, it may be surprising that gold prices have actually held up quite well. We have continued to call out gold's price resilience, especially in the context of investors having remained on the sidelines. This compared to the gold-positive narrative of eventual rate cuts has left gold itself facing quite the balancing act.Third, a balancing act that has for the most part not played out in a commodity's favor so far this year is US natural gas. It has touched lows recently amid weak weather-linked demand, buoyant supplies to date, and general bearish sentiment. We have described it as a commodity that has fallen a bit too far, seemingly waiting for a catalyst, but are recent headlines enough?

Helane Becker, TD Cowen Sr. Research Analyst, remains confident in the airline industry despite the recent Boeing in-flight safety incident. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says sentiments around the equity market got carried away at the end of 2023. Claudia Sahm, Sahm Consulting Founder & Bloomberg Opinion Writer, says December's jobs data points to a healthy labor market. Isaac Boltansky, BTIG Director of Policy Research, discusses Congress' agreement on a spending-cap deal as well as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's unannounced stay in the hospital. Barton Crockett, Rosenblatt Securities Managing Director, details the reasons behind his firm's neutral outlook on Apple this year. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance  Full Transcript:This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Helene Becker joins now senior research analyst at TD Cowen, and we're thrilled that she could be with us today. Helene, January twenty second. I guess we get an earnings report from United, the others will lined up. What is their urgency to act, not so much off the Boeing accident, but their urgency to act because of the topsy turvy markets they're in now. I think that we have a situation where we're expecting, or we saw fourth quarter traffic was pretty good. The further we get away from twenty twenty, the more we'll see managed corporate travel come back. I think the trip where you have maybe a one day trip isn't coming back anytime soon. I feel like it's a lot like after nine to eleven tom when the really short haul trips went away, and we expect that to continue really now. But the longer haul trips. People need to get out, they need to see their clients. We've been talking about this for about a year now and we're seeing that. We're seeing that increase in managed travel, and we think that we'll continue into the rest of this year. With the Boeing accident, with the rivets, the fasteners, whatever, we're going to see in the coming weeks of that analysis, even months, I should say, of that analysis, what does it mean for the dynamic of refleeting A word I discovered last week. I think Helene Becker, you know, refleeting is going out and buying the bright, shiny new thing accelerated. Yeah, well yes, and no American did their refleeting in the last decade, so they're on the downside of that. United is doing it now and into twenty thirty two. Delta is in the middle of it. But Delta has a different and Southwest actually have different viewpoints on the way they refleet. They kind of spend about ten percent revenue on capex, somewhere between eight and ten percent every year, so they're continually refleeting, so we view that fairly favorably. I don't think anything changes. There's a lot of pressure on the industry to lower their carbon footprint. I know aviation only makes up two percent of total transportation carbon, but others are doing the whole reduction carbon faster, so aviation over time will become a bigger percentage of it. So there's a lot of pressure to fly young are more fully efficient aircraft oleane. I can't get past this comment from George ferguson words you never want to hear, when he basically came out and said it's not as safe as it was before the pandemic, talking about the safety of flying at a time when we did just have this incident with Alaska Airlines, also the incident that we saw in Japan, Questions around the competency and staffing levels at some of the agencies. Are you concerned? Do you feel like that is an accurate statement that it is not as safe to fly today as pre pandemic. No, no, no, I disagree with that completely. The fact that there were no casualties on the japan Air A three thirty is hugely significant. They were able to evacuate that entire aircraft without any incident, with half the doors being half the emergency doors being unusable because of fire. So I think that's one thing to consider. I think from an aviation perspective and a safety perspect that every time there's an incident, there's an investigation. There is no cover up. You never see that as you would in some as you may in some other industries. There have it. I mean, not to cha the industry, but there really haven't been any major accidents. The fact that Alaska air pilots were able to declare any emergency turnaround land safely with no injuries is hugely significant. And I think aviation is still the sepest form of transportation. No other industry does the deep dive into accidents that aviation does, and then aviation trains for every accident, and I think I think it's I think aviation is still very safe. I think that a lot of people will point to what happened in Japan and point out that that plane that everyone did manage to get out of I believe was an air bus and not a poet. But nevertheless, Yeah, So going forward, though, I'm curious what about some of the air traffic control issues and some of these other things. How important is it for airlines to do some sort of pr job, if nothing else, to assuage some of the concerns of neurotic people like myself. Where you're looking at this and thinking like, I don't know, well, I think you have to think aviation is safe number one. Number two, Yes, we do need to address the air traffic control situation, and the fact that we now have a permanent administrator is hugely important. That's another, you know, another thing that we view favorably. The FAA is certified to March eighth, so the government needs to really step up its efforts and get it certified permanently. My views are different than some of my peer group. I personally think the government should be responsible for safety and security, and I think your traffic control should be a separate corporation that's public that's paid for everybody. Right now, General Aviation, TOLUM and least in John don't pay for using air traffic control system. Helen, this is I wish we had another hour to cover this because I think each and every listener and viewer want to know about Back to the Reagan uproar and unions of years ago. How different is our transportation safety structure versus other major developing countries. Yeah, so euro Control runs Europe and that's a public company and Canada's public company and Canada it's just run differently. And I'm not saying it's better. I'm not saying it's worse. I'm just saying it's different, and you don't have the puts and starts that you have here. I've been talking about next gen since I started covering the industry four decades ago, and we're still talking about it. It's years behind schedule, it's over budget. Air traffic control, to your point, Tom, the Reagan administration fired all the air traffic controllers. They retrained them NAT because the union that represents them. They're they're well trained, but they're overworked, they're fatigued. We don't have enough of them to handle what we're doing right now, and so the aviation system will slow down. You won't be able to We'll see growth through replacing smaller aircraft with larger aircraft. We don't think we'll see the same level of pilot hiring in twenty four and twenty five that we saw in twenty one, two and three. That from that perspective. As we move further into the decade and people have more experience, that will be beneficial. But we're not going to grow as fast as we grow in prior decades because we just don't have the experience, and we can push the air traffic controllers to too much over time because it's a very taxing job to begin with, and we don't want any accidents to occur in the US because we want to continue to be able to say it's the safest form of transportation. Helen, I've got sixty seconds left on a clock top pic if ivor trade this year? What is it? Oh? Yeah, our favorite trade this year is Delta after United was our face for trade for the past two years. Why the change? The difference in capex, frankly is the biggest difference. I think United will continue to do well, but they're going to borrow a lot of money, sick. They have a sixty billion dollar capex program between now and twenty thirty two, and Deltas is not nearly as big, so you won't see the stress and the balance sheet that you may see at United. Interesting, Helene, thank you, thanks for the up date and lane backing there of td count, Thank you very much. Starting in the conversation this morning with Lori Cavassino, the head of US screty strategy at RBC Capital Markets, Loury, Good morning to you. This line jumped down from your most recent note, the week's start in January is just the beginning of a phase of turbulence. How concerned are you about that? Well, well, Johnny, I was talking to one of my traders last week and we were discussing the CFTC data. We're starting to see it's really just looking very very stretched, and I said, this looks scary, and I think we need to keep in mind that sentiment has been oscillating very very quickly over the last six months, so this isn't necessarily something that has to derail a call for the year. Maybe damp an enthusiasm just a little bit, but really what we've started to see the CFTC data on institutional investor positioning line up with what we're seeing on the retail survey for aaii, and both are looking very very stretched right now. I think there are a number of things that could come in and trip this market up a bit, but usually it's something the market doesn't see coming, So I think we need to focus here on the idea that sentiment itself just got carried away at the end of last year. Laurie Mike Wilson has been cautious on the markets. Over at Morgan Stanley has a brilliant paragraph parketing to nominal growth could be the surprise this year. It's one of his more optimistic constructions of where we're heading in the mystery of twenty twenty four, what do mid caps and small caps do? If we get legitimate animal spirit, we get legitimate nominal GDP. So what we've done typically seen is that when GDP and we tend to look at it in real terms as opposed to nominal terms. But if you're looking at real GDP above two point six percent, and two point six percent has been the long term average since the late seventies, we typically see that small caps and value stocks outperform in that environment. When GDP is running cool below trend, that's when large caps and growth tend to outperform. So it goes back to this question of leadership and rotation in the market. We've got GDP forecasts sitting at about one point three percent this year. That's up from about one percent back in November, so they're moving in the right direction. But if we really want to get a lasting, sustainable, durable leadership rotation away from the megacap growth stocks and into basically everything else in the market, you need to see GDP expectations move up quite a bit more from where they are right now. I mean, okay, well, the GDP's got to come up. I get that, But what do we do right now? I mean, you're deploying cash to small you know they've pulled back. You deploying cash this morning to small caps and mid caps. So I still like them, I don't like them quite as much as I did, you know, say four or five weeks ago when we last spoke. One of the things we've seen is that, in addition to sentiment getting a little frothy at the broader market, if you look at small cap positioning on the CFTC data, we're at important crossroads. We're basically at the three year highs, but we're not at all time highs. So we're going to know pretty soon whether or not small caps are really able to power through and take things up another leg of we's also still seeing that small caps look very cheap relative to large But if you look at a Russell two thousand and forward pe, it's back to average. Now that's not usually where things top out at, but it is telling us that maybe we have made a lot of the easy money in small caps already. So do I like them? Yes? Do I like them as much as I did a month ago? Not quite? This sounds all kind of negative, and yet you just upgraded your forecast for year end twenty twenty four to a fifty one fifty. That's a ten percent upside from here. If it's not small caps what leads. So I think that the value stocks in particular are something to keep an eye on. From here. We've seen the financials act quite well now I'm actually a little bit nervous about that heading into reporting season, but we've started to see some more favorable views emerge on the industrials as well. So I think we're going to get some interesting clues in this reporting season. But I do think sector composition is very, very tough right now. I do think, Lisa, if you kind of go back to our target, we were anticipating about a ten percent return, and we put that target out in early our mid November we were on sort of the earlier side of putting targets out. We trued up all of our you know, sort of models for year end. We did have this big, ferocious run in December, and now where we're sitting today, even with this upgrade on the fifty one to fifty, it's only about an eight percent return on the year, So it's not necessarily getting more bullish. It's just kind of truing up our model for the year ahead based on the moves that we had in December. You mentioned banks, and I find this interesting. How important is Friday going to be as JP Morgan kicks off earnings to give a sense of what the landscape is for banks? Or is it just JP Morgan's world and everybody else is living in it? So I think they all matter, Lisa. You know, I don't think it's just any one particular bank. I know some get more attention than others, especially the one that come at the beginning. But I tell you what I think is important for the banks is one, are those sort of strong numbers that we've seen in terms of performance going to hold up. Sometimes we do see, you know, sort of the banks give back when they've had a strong lead into reporting season, So are the numbers going to be good enough to really justify sustaining some of the better trends we've seen recently. I think that's one thing. But also I think for someone like me who's not a specialist in the financials, we really go in and look at the financials for clues on the plumbing of the economy, on the health of the consumer. And I think that's probably going to be the most important thing coming out of the next kind of week or so with those banks earnings, the real headline over the weekend coming into this morning a positive surprise in Washington, d C. Laurie this story congressional leaders announcing a deal on top line spending for the current fiscal year. Laurie, I was speaking to Wemy with Silverman in the last week and we talked about your line that talking about politics the election this year specifically is like staring at the sun. Is it that bad this year for you and the team? Yeah, it's pretty awful, John. I mean it's interesting that line comes from my conversations with US based investors who are like, Okay, it's time to write our outlooks. You know, this is kind of thinking back the last month or so, you know, what do we say about this? And we kind of walk people through data, We get through it quickly, and then we move on European and Canadian investors. I mean, you could easily spend a whole meeting on this. It's like it's like a spectator sport for them at this point. But I do think it's a major source of uncertainty. And I'll tell you what it was interesting to me last week when I was working through some of the data we saw at the end of the year in the beginning of this year, is that you are starting to see money flows improve or turn positive to Japan, to emerging markets, to China, and to Europe. US flows are still holding up, but we are starting to see non US geographies really attract, you know, some better flows. And I think part of that has to do with the election. Based on what I'm hearing from the non US investors, Laurie answer a question for OURBC clients watching listening, which is, jeez, we started the year week and that signals a terrible year ahead. Is there any valid to that emotion? So I tend to be very skeptical of you know, these seasonal, you know kind of studies. Whenever we do this on this day, we do this for the rest of the week. I think that those kinds of studies can be massaged frankly, you know, change your starting point to show whatever you want to show. I've been actually looking at seasonality over the last ten years. We've had some good ones, we've had some stinkers, but we have seen that January has been pretty much a mixed bag. There have been some difficult ones if you especially look over the last five years. So it would be sort of keeping with a recent seasonality to have a rough start to the year. Does that necessarily tell you that you have to run away for the rest of the year. I don't think so. And I go back to what we talked about at the top of the show. Sentiment has been oscillating so quickly. We were basically overbought in August, oversold in November, overbought in December again, and that all round tripped off of oversold conditions last October and post SVB. So I think that sentiment helps you tactically. I don't think you can use it that much to make a really kind of longer term view. At this point, Laurie. Wonderful to get your views this morning. Thanks Obama. This lor Convasaye of the vampy seat capital market. Claudia sam will be up all night watching a football game as well. Claudia for the Department of Economics at Michigan, all that heritage. What does blue football actually mean? Do you completely ignore it? Or are you at the fifty yard line for every game? Well, they don't. Let the grad students have very good seats. But we went. You know, it's it's Michigan, Go Blue, Go Blue. We'll see tonight. Thank you so much for joining Claudia. Barry rid Oldson. You had a great idea out there that in our hysteria right now of single statistics, we have denominator blindness. Let's take the national debt the interest expense of that, and we forget how large our economy is or how large our labor force is. How is hysterical are we right now? And do we need to calm down? Well, we've needed to calm down for decades. This is not a new conversation. The debt has to be put in context, not just of our GDP. That's a flow that we get that every year. We need to think about in terms of their wealth, which is multiples of what that debt is. And I also a firm believer, and we need to look under the hood and what are we spending our money on. There's good ways to do it investment R and D, and there's ways that aren't as good, maybe really high income tax cuts. So that's where we need to have a conversation, not just throwing around big numbers. Is the FED throwing around big numbers? Are they having a conversation as they move out into twenty twenty four that you would consider appropriate and rational in terms of the debt or in terms of what they're doing in terms of what they're going to do with their monetary policy? Excuse me? Yeah, no, I mean the FED is trying to do the impossible. Well, right now, my heart goes out to them, and we will play a parlor game for the next year or two and what their next move is. And yeah, they've got the eye on the prize, right. They work through financial markets, but they really don't care about financial markets. It's about getting inflation down, it's about keeping people with jobs. And we're well on our way, but it's going to be tough. To know when they're there and can say, okay, we can back off. Let's do an anatomy of what happened on Friday, because it was some confusing data that I tried to parse through and continue to and read more reports, and I'm just as confused. Which data screams the truest to you at a time where we got stronger than expected headline number, some real shows of strength, and then real signs of weakness, particularly in services. Employment. Big picture of Friday's payrolls was a good day. We had unemployments staying at three point seven percent. We're averaging a little under two hundred thousand jobs in recent months. If you think about what the labor market is buffering, we have a five percentage point more than that increase in the federal funds rate. This is a labor market. Now. You can go under the hood. You can do this in almost any month and say, ugh, that doesn't look so good now. Granted, there were some real science things to keep an eye on, you know, and we always need to, but this was not a flashing red We're going over the cliff. I mean, come on, we've been under the one employer it's been under four percent for the longest stretch since the nineteen sixties. Well, it's good. What about the services ISM data. That's fact that hiring fell the most, the sort of sub index for that particular data point came in the most going back to twenty twenty at the height of the pandemic. Does this make you feel like we're at a tipping point? Even if no, we're not heading into the abyss that we are cooling off in a much more material way. It's been like case last year. We needed to rebounce. We needed to get to a place that was expansionary but not red hot. I mean, we were coming out of a really bad labor market with COVID. So we do need to see things normalizing slowing, not just this pace that's been so strong, because we want to get to a sustainable place and there are going to be all signs. Frankly, I take a lot more out of the payrolls data than I do the ISM and we need to look at everything. And yet we've gotten a lot of mixed signals from the data you know so far. So we adres a Samrell for us right now? How many states are in a miserable situation, doctor Son? So I haven't looked at every state recently. One that has stood out, and I imagine is still in the same place as California. That's a really good example of how you can have an industry that's having a tough time. I mean, tech in the Bay Area is legitimately having some tough times, and yet we have seen no signs of its spreading because it's an industry issue, it's not like a broad based contraction. And I will say at the national level, the samrull went back down to two tenths of a percentage point, So looking good so far. Coldly, I just want to weigh in on some of the politics, and I don't want to beg you too much, but whenever I listen to you talk about the labor market, you offer clarity where clarity can be found, and why there isn't any It leaves the question open. It's ready digestible, very very intuitive. Why do you think this administration is struggling with the messaging so much around what's happening with this economy? For a long time, Democrats have really put an emphasis on being the adult in the room. When I saw the jobs number, I had a gift that I use as like boom. You know, it's like, come on, let's get excited about this. Yes, there's more to do, and yet when I look at all it has been accomplished in the last four years and even during the Trump administration, the big push with CARES Act we really help people. Is not perfect, but like, don't hide behind what you've done, like go out and say we did agree. Job Okay, Then why can't they do that? I mean, John brings up an incredibly important point. Claudie sim You've been in the trenches. Why can't somebody just come out not say, you know, Rosie Morning in America and all that, but say, look, we understand the agonies out there, but boy has this worked out from COVID versus many other countries and continents. I really don't know. I mean, I have come across the fact that across the democratic spectrum there's just so much anger at each other. I mean, I've gotten the worst feedback from far left, and you know center isn't exactly happy with me either. So it's just it's so strange, right, But you know, I don't know. I hate politics. I really don't understand it. I just keep doing my work and trying to explain and trying to learn from what people are going through, and we value your work. Clodia, thank you as always, just fantastic to hear from you. Todi Samda of some consulting right now on your Washington. Isaac Multanski joints Director of Policy Research at BTIG. Isaac, I got to go with the lead a headline, which is, I guess all clear in Congress we've actually passed a budget. Is that true? Absolutely not. That couldn't be farther from the truth. We now have top line agreement on what we can spend for the fiscal year. That's great, it's wonderful, and that just means that the hard work gets to begin now. You know, I think you're two points to highlight. Number one is you've got to notice how angry the far right flank of the House GOP is this morning. We need to understand that the speaker, Speaker Johnson is operating with no room for error and he will almost certainly need democratic support to pass his bill. That's something that former Speaker McCarthy didn't want to do, ended up doing and then got thrown out from the speakership. And the number two is there are so many points of departure between Democrats and Republicans when it comes to the specifics of the spending agreement. There are upwards of forty different poison pills some groups have counted that could shut down the talks around this. So look, I think the temperature has been taken down. The risk of a shutdown is slightly lower this morning. But there's still a lot of work that needs to be done over the next eleven days. So what's the primary to do list arking over the next eleven days. Yeah, So what I'm looking looking at is I can get movement on the other issues around the spending bill. So it's good that we've got this, and now I think the appropriators will slink back into their offices and you'll see some backroom negotiation and maybe not much on that. I'm interested in the border deal, Tom, because we've got to keep in mind, the spending agreement is just part of this three D chess game that we have going on. The other part is the supplemental spending measures, and here I'm talking about border security, and then of course funding for Taiwan, Ukraine and Israel. That's the other part of it. And we'll Lynch. All of that is the border security deal that we're now expecting to come later this week. You mentioned the international security concerns, big foreign policy issues. We've got to talk about the curious case of the missing Defense Secretary now Isaac. First of all, we wish him all a speedy recovery from what none of us sink to know the detail. According to our reporting, Lloyd Austin underwent an elective procedure in late December, didn't tell his staff they should notify others when he was admitted to Walter Reed Medical Center on New Year's Day after experiencing severe pain at the same time as chief of staff was ill with the flu, and failed to notify anyone, the person said that we've been speaking to. According to our source, that Austin's military aid quickly put Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks in charge of running the Pentagon, although she wasn't informed of the reason for this decision, and the President seemingly for days didn't have a clue. I say, what was going on? What is going on? This is one of the weirder stories you're going to come across in the Biden administration, which by and large has been pretty tame when it comes to these personnel stories, especially compared to the previous four years. But it's deeply unsettling, right, I know that the secretary is an incredibly personal excuse me, an incredibly private person, and that this is something that all the staff have highlighted about him. Don't get to be this private when you're sixth in line in the presidential line of succession, and so, Look, this is deeply unsettling, especially given that transparency is one of the pillars of our political system. But ultimately, this too shall pass, and I think it just reminds you of some of the stories of personnel volatility that we saw during the Trump administration, which is going to be one of the campaign trail considerations as well. You said volatility. Do you expect him to step down? No, Look, I think that, depending on health, of course, that he is going to be fine. I mean, the President has not made any comment that suggests that the Defense Secretary won't will leave here, so I think he will stay. I wouldn't be surprised if he's replaced if the President Biden does win reelection, though, I think this is the type of thing that doesn't get you reappointed. Well, this raises a question though, in general about foreign policy and also the platform for President Biden going forward. There were a list of asks that people are talking about his new platform, all of which you're going to get red and are dead in the water. Is he going to basically be running on the anti Trump candidacy once again at a time when Trump is consolidating a lot of popular support. Yeah. Look, I mean there's obviously you've heard that line a thousand times that you campaign in poetry, but you govern in pros I don't think anyone's going to like the poetry we see from a campaign trail this time around. It is truly going to be a fear driven campaign. It is fear of the other side. It is fear of reversal, is fear of retribution. I don't seem to think that we're going to see much hope and excitement coming from the campaign trail over the next few months. Isaac, you know the polarity of the states with Ohio and Ohio Wesleyan, I'm absolutely fascinating of the polarity in the Iowa caucuses. What is the distinctive tension as we begin the political season in Iowa. I mean, looking, presidential primaries are about retail politics, and they're about and they're about personal preference more so than any national old pole could ever understand. And then when we think about Iowa, we've got to think about President Trump having a thirty two point leaked and we've got to think about also, and I think this is important. Tom DeSantis went all in on Iowa. This is it for him. And if he comes in second and loses by thirty points, which the polls are suggesting, pretty hard to imagine him being considered a serious contender going to New Hampshire where he's clearly third at far behind Haley. And so really this is to me, Iowa is a little assess for the DeSantis campaign. If he loses as badly as it looks, I think that his campaign, which already been floundering, will effectively be over. And it's really a question then of how strongly Nikki Haley can look in New Hampshire a week later. But to that point, Isaac, if he loses and he has to drop out, who does he back? Where do those votes go? Look? I think it will be incredibly difficult for him to back anyone. I think that he will remain in the background. My bet though, is that those bets, those vote's actually split somewhat to Haley and the rest stay home from the primary. But my point to clients say is Trump is going to be the nominee. That is very clear right now. He is the likely nominee. Those votes weren't trying to figure out where they're going. They're going to him in the general election. And so that's the important point here. There's still so many clients and so many people in DC who don't want it to be Trump v. Biden, and I understand that. But all indications are it's Trump vi Bide, and that's what the market and DC folks need to start wrapping their heads around when we think about the politics and the policy of it all. Isaac, thank you, sir, isa Boltanski then of b tch bot, a Crockett senior research analyst that rusn't black securities join just not for more. But and let's talk about that the prospective. Say I was picking up for the iPhone and what's been holding them back over the last year. Well, look, I think that you know, we downgraded Apple in August early August. We currently have one hundred and eighty nine dollars price target neutral rating, And you know, our concern at that time is that you had a combination of a muted growth trajectory really across much of the company, including the iPhone, certainly factoring prominently into that, and a high valuation. So that combination, in our mind was not compelling, not something you needed to be overweight on. I think the issue with the iPhone is the feature set, innovation and the consumer pocketbook and some question about China, and I think all of those things have you know, given us data points that are very supportive of the notion that you're in a very muted place right now for iPhone. And I think given that that's something like fifty percent of sales, very difficult for that stock to have a lot of excitement. I think if there's not a lot of excitement in the iPhone marton, the basic idea here I guess for the bulls is they're running it for profit. If you look at the Evada margin from COVID twenty nineteen, they've moved from twenty nine cents on the dollar up to thirty three cents in the dollar. Even if they get a Barton krack at sales lassitude. Can they maintain margins? You know? The company I think can maintain margins, you know, but I don't know that that's type of story, you know, nickel and diming margins, muted growth is something that's going to be really compelling at currently about twenty ape thirty PE when we downgrade it, I think the certainly, it's a great company. It's a good company that you could want to own at the appropriate price. But I think you've got to be price sensitive. I think it's a maturing company, and you can't buy it at any multiple, and you can't sit back and predict blue sky multiple expansion and perpetuity with this type of business as we see it right now. I look at the center tendency of a long term chart when you say a pullback, how much would that be if you do get some negative news out of China, et cetera. Is this from one to eighty down to one sixty, which is a center distribution? You know, certainly we would feel more comfortable with a healthy double digit return to our price target. You know, I do have some comfort with our estimates and with the street consensus. I do believe that you know, people have baked in the idea of a very muted iPhone. You know, this is a company you can own at the right price, but it's a mature company price. It's not a growth multiple. I think, Martin, is this an Apple problem or is this a big tech problem? More broadly, you know, I think this is much more Apple. I mean, we look at some other big tech companies in our coverage and we see a really great confluence of things developing lower interest rates, certainly supporting multiples, expansion, certainly favoring scarce growth, which you don't have it Apple, but you do have it things like Amazon, And I think there's been a reset in the Internet model. People have understood that you can run these businesses with much better margins, much more efficiently. You know. So while you're nickel and diming some mar improvement at Apple, you're seeing explosive margin improvement at Amazon, at Meta, Pinterest, at Spotify. You know, those that I think are much more interesting opportunities in this environment. I've never thought that people would say Pinterest in Spotify would trump Apple when it came to potential opportunities. Is it negative enough in your view for them to really drop out of the mag seven for this to be defined by a very different narrative that Apple is just not included in in twenty twenty four. Well, you know, I mean max seven certainly, that's kind of, you know, a term of art. I guess the thing with Apple is, I think it's a CpG company. I think that, you know, it's a company that you'd like to own at the right price, you know, in a certain macro environment where perhaps it's defensive, if the economy is slowing, maybe it's more interesting. But you don't need to be overweight Apple in every environment. You should pick and choose your places. I always wonder what the appropriate multiple on that name actually is. You've got the core good, the iPhone going ex grow, You've got a multiple that still looks pretty growthy as the revenue mix starts to shift towards services. I'm ordering from your perspective, what most part did you put on that business? Well, look, I mean I think that it's trading at about one point four times or so the market multiple. You know, I think a lesser premium is appropriate. You know, you can give it some premium given the strength of its franchise, the strength of its brand, the durability you know, the iPhone's not going away, and they've got good cash flow and good share repurchase. So to think that this could be a load image twenties multiple makes more sense to me than a thirty multiple. Bana, Thank you, sir for your insight. The update to a new year. Bona Crockett there of Rosenblat Securities. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern. Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app you can watch us live. I'm Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen and this is BloombergSee 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On this episode of On The Tape, Guy Adami and Dan Nathan sit down with Lori Calvasina of RBC for her stock market outlook. Plus, Guy and Danny Moses run through a handful of single stocks and topics on D-MO's radar. Key Insights from the Pod: Stock market seasonality changes since Lori's last appearance (2:15) Rate cut impacts on stocks (4:20) Small caps vs. mega-cap growth stocks (8:40) Lori's 2024 forecast (14:45) Crude oil (21:30) China (23:25) What U.S investors are discounting (24:30) The path to Lori's S&P 500 target of 5,000 (26:00)  The gold market (38:15) The Bank of Japan/Yen (42:25) The equity market whistling past a graveyard (46:30) Energy stocks (48:00) Unemployment (51:30) Bank CEOs in DC (53:45) Cerevel options trading surge before AbbVie deal news raises eyebrows (56:00) Tesla (57:10) Danny's tirade on GameStop (58:50) NFL picks of the week (1:02:15) — About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money's Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They're offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we're here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. — Check out our show notes here Learn more about Ro body: ro.co/tape See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. — Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod on Twitter or @riskreversalmedia on Threads — We're on social: Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Young @LizYoungStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Guy and Danny discuss investors not paying enough attention to Japan (4:00), treasuries trading like biotech stocks (11:30), Upstart (15:30), Icahn Enterprises (19:30), and the shift from passive to active investing (24:30). Later, they are joined by Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC, to discuss the market reaction to inflation data (38:00), 2023 earnings estimates (41:00), interest rates (45:00), growth vs. value (47:30), energy (49:00), China/geopolitical risks (51:00), small caps (57:00), the yield curve (1:02:00), the AI craze (1:03:00) About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money's Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They're offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we're here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. Check out our show notes here Learn more about Ro body: ro.co/tape See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod. We're on social: Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Young @LizYoungStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page

Guy, Dan and Danny discuss Thursday's massive one-day turnaround in the markets (4:05), growing strength in the energy sector (8:00), the wild moves in interest rates and if the latest hot inflation data will force a recalibration by the Fed (12:00), why no one wants the Elon Musk-Twitter deal to happen except Twitter shareholders (21:50), and Danny's best NFL bets for the weekend (24:15).   Then, Guy and Danny talk with Lori Calvasina, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, about why she thinks the market will get back on track late next year (32:16), the challenge of building forecasts and models amid inflation and high interest rates (35:00), the value of embracing contrarian thoughts (44:34), if there are significant cracks yet in the credit markets (48:01), and why she thinks it's become a stock picker's market (50:18). And later, CNBC's Julia Boorstin joins Guy and Dan on what inspired her to write her new book “When Women Lead” (54:00), the value of investing in female founders and female-led startups (61:00), mentoring the next generation of female leaders (1:07:40), and what characteristics help female-led companies succeed (1:11:20). Check out our show notes and transcript here ---- See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape.  ---- Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod. We're on social: Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page