Podcast appearances and mentions of lori calvasina

Dan Nathan hosts Lori Calvasina, Managing Director and Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC. They discuss market trends, economic indicators, and the impact of geopolitical events and tariffs on market performance. Lori shares her insights on equity targets, valuation concerns, and the influence of passive investing and institutional behavior. The conversation also covers the significant role of AI in corporate strategy, fluctuations in the 10-year yield, and investor reactions to recent market movements. Lori emphasizes the importance of adaptability and a data-driven approach in forecast and strategy amidst market uncertainties. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge and Lori Calvasina, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, break down the market action after the Fed left rates unchanged and a fresh wave of earnings. ARM and Skyworks report as semis stay in focus. Fed deep-dive with BNY Investments' Vincent Reinhart and Jefferies' David Zervos after fresh commentary from Fed Chair Powell. Jon Breaking down ARM's quarter with Benchmark analyst Cody Acree. Our Sara Eisen has an exclusive interview with Citadel CEO Ken Griffin on the markets, monetary policy, and Trump vs. Harvard. 

Solus Alternative Asset Management and RBC Capital Markets' Lori Calvasina weigh in on the trade tug of war. Plus, top tech investor Jeff Richards of Notable Capital weighs in on the volatility in that sector. And, BofA's Jill Carey Hall tells us where she sees small caps heading from here. 

Lori Calvasina of RBC Capital Markets and Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge discussing the ongoing equity pullback and Calvasina digs into why her S&P 500 bear case is now the base case. Our Megan Cassella reports on the White House's tariff plans targeting China, while Pippa Stevens breaks down the sharp decline in oil prices. Ralph Schlosstein, Evercore Chairman Emeritus and BlackRock Co-Founder, shares his market outlook during the ongoing market volatility. Rebecca Patterson, former Bridgewater Chief Investment Strategist, joins to offer her view on the macro, as well as gold and the dollar. FIS CEO Stephanie Ferris, in her first broadcast interview, on how the pipes of the financial system are handling the current trading volume surge.

Lori Calvasina, Chief US Equity Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, discusses her note this morning on why full recession pricing could send the S&P to 4,200. She speaks with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When will the selling stop? We discuss with Solus' Dan Greenahus and Lori Calvasina from RBC Capital Markets. Plus, we hear from Malcolm Ethridge from Capital Area Planning Group after he bought one big name at the center of the recent market turmoil.  Meantime, we discuss if Apple is at a crossroads as that tech name gets hit with yet another bearish analyst call. Big Technology's Alex Kantrowitz and CNBC's tech reporter Steve Kovach both weigh in. And, top analyst Mark Mahaney tells us how he is navigating the volatility in the tech space. 

RBC's Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market. This week, we bring you a special edition of the podcast, recorded live at the RBC Financial institutions conference on March 5th, 2025. Ben Fisher (US Equity Sales, Midwest & Macro Sales Specialist) moderates a discussion with Lori Calvasina (Head of US Equity Strategy) and Amy Wu Silverman (Derivatives Strategist) on their latest views on the US equity market outlook and what they've been hearing from investors.

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan are joined by Lori Calvasina, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, to discuss various market trends. The episode delves into the current state of the stock market, major economic indicators, and the impact of geopolitical events and tariffs on market performance. Lori shares insights on the financial and energy sectors, the role of AI in corporate earnings, and the challenges of forecasting in an uncertain economic climate. The discussion also touches on interest rates, market valuations, and the potential for a rocky path ahead. Lori emphasizes the importance of a disciplined, data-driven approach to market analysis, while Guy and Dan underscore the significance of staying informed amidst market volatility. — FOLLOW US YouTube: @RiskReversalMedia Instagram: @riskreversalmedia X: @RiskReversal LinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

A packed show covering the latest in markets, earnings, and tech policy. Adam Kobeissi, Editor-in-Chief of The Kobeissi Letter, and Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, break down key market trends and positioning. A deep dive into Palantir's earnings with a head-to-head debate between Dan Ives of Wedbush and Jefferies analyst Brent Thill. Plus, Booz Allen Hamilton CEO Horacio Rozanski joins exclusively to discuss the ripple effects tariffs and Trump 2.0. Our Eunice Yoon has fresh reporting on the ground in China taking a look at how the economy there is handling tariffs. 

In this Christmas Day special edition of Bloomberg Daybreak with Nathan Hager: Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist at PGIM Fixed Income, discusses what the Fed will do in 2025. Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets and Cameron Dawson, the Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, break down what we can expect in equities Burt Flickinger, the Managing Director at Strategic Resource Group, brings us the winners and losers of the 2024 holiday retail season. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this Christmas Day special edition of Bloomberg Daybreak with Nathan Hager: Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist at PGIM Fixed Income, discusses what the Fed will do in 2025. Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets and Cameron Dawson, the Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, break down what we can expect in equities Burt Flickinger, the Managing Director at Strategic Resource Group, brings us the winners and losers of the 2024 holiday retail season. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The format of this special edition of RBC's Markets in Motion is a little bit different from what we usually do, and runs a little bit longer than usual. In this episode, Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy, is joined by two of her macro partners at RBC Capital Markets, Head of US Rates Strategy, Blake Gwinn, and Equity Derivative Strategist Amy Wu Silverman. With 2024 winding down, all of their outlook reports out, and too many December investor meetings behind them to even count, these three thought leaders at RBC Capital Markets came together to discuss their thoughts on the equity market, the bond market, and volatility in the year ahead. The conversation took place on December 19th, 2024. We hope you enjoy the discussion and wish all of our regular listeners a very happy New Year.

In this episode, Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy, is joined by two of her macro partners at RBC Capital Markets, Head of US Rates Strategy, Blake Gwinn, and Equity Derivative Strategist Amy Wu Silverman. With 2024 winding down, all of their outlook reports out, and too many December investor meetings behind them to even count, these three thought leaders at RBC Capital Markets came together to discuss their thoughts on the equity market, the bond market, and volatility in the year ahead. The conversation took place on December 19th, 2024.

In this Christmas Day special edition of Bloomberg Daybreak with Nathan Hager: Tom Porcelli, Chief US Economist at PGIM Fixed Income, discusses what the Fed will do in 2025. Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets and Cameron Dawson, the Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, break down what we can expect in equities Burt Flickinger, the Managing Director at Strategic Resource Group, brings us the winners and losers of the 2024 holiday retail season. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stocks closed out a down week with declines across the major averages on Friday, led to the downside by tech. Morgan Stanley Global Head of Thematic and Macro Investing Ellen Zentner on what she is telling clients and RBC's Lori Calvasina on what you need to know for the weeks ahead. Netflix is airing Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson and promotor of the fight, Nakisa Bidarian, discusses what the event means for Netflix, Paul and the future of streaming sports. Jefferies' Sheila Kahyaoglu on why defense stocks got hit this week—and what Elon Musk might have to do with it. Plus, FICO CEO William Lansing on the stock's rip higher and how the consumer looks from his vantage point. 

With an already-strong bull market getting an extra kick from anticipated policy help and loosening Fed policy into a sturdy economy … what's not to like? NewEdge's Cameron Dawson, Truist's Keith Lerner and Pointwealth Capital weigh in on where they see the markets – and your money – headed from here. Plus, Former Fed Governor Mishkin maps out what he is expecting from next week's CPI print. And, RBC's Lori Calvasina reveals her post-election playbook. 

At RBC's Global Industrials conference in Las Vegas, Vito Sperduto, Head of RBC Capital Markets U.S., and Lori Calvasina, Head of U.S. equity strategy talk about the key themes shaping equity markets right now, and how investors are thinking about and factoring in the potential impact of the US election.

Ford CFO John Lawler joins in an exclusive interview to discuss Q3 earnings, the company's guidance and what's ahead in the EV market. Lux Capital co-founder John Wolfe on launching Lux Labs to invest in the next American breakthrough and the rise in defense tech investing. Plus, RBC's Lori Calvasina on what she's watching for Big Tech earnings.

Equities just notched their fifth straight week of gains as optimism persists and the bull run enters its second year. Fundstrat's Tom Lee, NB Private Wealth's Shannon Saccocia, and RBC Capital Markets' Lori Calvasina share their expectations for Q4 and beyond. Plus, Wedbush Securities' Dan Ives defends his Tesla bull case on a difficult day for that stock. And, former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester reveals her expectations for rate cuts as inflation cools.

The S&P 500 touched an intraday record the day before the Fed decision, where Wall Street is split on whether to expect a 25 or 50-basis-point cut. RBC's Lori Calvasina, Vital Knowledge's Adam Crisafulli, and Neuberger Berman's Joe Amato all weigh in on their expectations and how the Fed could change the narrative. Shake Shack's CEO Rob Lynch joins for his first interview since taking the helm at the company in May, with his read on consumer spending and Shake Shack's place in the value menu wars. Plus Intuit's CEO on the company's new enterprise tools, Coursera's CEO on the parts of the world benefitting from AI, and an update on Elliott's activist battle with Southwest.

Welcome to RBC's Markets in Motion podcast, recorded September 9th, 2024. I'm Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Please listen to the end of this podcast for important disclaimers. Three big things you need to know: First, Friday's jobs report added to investors' uncertainty regarding the labor market, but the data point that concerned us from last week was the spike in Tech layoffs in the Challenger report. Second, election uncertainty has persisted with policy getting greater attention from both sides. We run through our US equity market read throughs from Trump's economic speech last week. Third, in our discussion of other updates from our high frequency indicators, we review what we're watching in terms of potential near-term downside levels for the S&P 500, sentiment, and the Semis trade. If you'd like to hear more, here's another 6 minutes. Now, let's jump into the details. Starting with Takeaway #1: Employment Uncertainty Has Grown After Friday's Jobs Report, But The Spike In Tech Layoffs In The Challenger Report Spooked Us The Most Regarding StocksRBC's economics team noted that while the report “doesn't point to a sharp contraction in the labor market, it also gave no indications that the broader cooling trend – which is not welcomed by the Federal Reserve – has in any way run its course.” From our seat in US equity strategy, we generally agree with the idea that the jobs report is still consistent with cooling and normalization as opposed to an economy on the cusp of recession. That being said, we were a little spooked by some of the details in the Challenger layoff report that came out earlier in the week. The overall level of layoffs moved up in August, but remained well below the spikes associated with past recessions, and was even a bit below the moves higher seen in 2023-2024 and 2015. What caught our attention was the spike in layoffs for Technology companies which wasn't as bad as those seen in late 2022 and early 2023, but otherwise rivals some of the worst spikes this industry has seen over time. This primarily worries us in regards to the Tech sector itself and the broader market by way of the rotation trade. Though layoff announcements moved up slightly in a few other industries, those were generally mild relative to history. Moving on to Takeaway #2: Election Uncertainty Persists, With Policy Getting Greater AttentionWe continue to see the US election as a key challenge that the US equity market will need to work through in coming months, due to the uncertainty that the event has injected into the outlook. We do usually see a pullback in the S&P 500 in September and October of Presidential election years, with a rebound afterwards. Thinking about today specifically, a number of companies referred to this idea that the election has injected some uncertainty into the outlook in their recent earnings calls. Meanwhile, Harris has pulled ahead of Trump in the PredictIt betting market and RCP polling average, but the race still looks quite close on these data sets, as well as in the polling for the swing states. We do believe the stock market has been paying attention to the event given the alignment we've continued to see between S&P 500 performance and expectations that Trump will win in betting markets. One of the primary things the stock market cares about regarding the election is domestic policy, and investors have been getting new information on the policy leanings of both Harris and Trump over the past few weeks. In our latest report, we've recapped our early thoughts on the stock market read throughs of Trump's domestic policy agenda as described in his speech to the Economic Club of New York last week. We think it's premature to put on any significant sector or industry trades...

RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy Lori Calvasina puts the past few trading days in context coming off of disappointing jobs numbers with Bloomberg's Paul Sweeney and Alix Steele.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Guy Adami, Danny Moses, and Dan Nathan delve into recent economic trends, including potential Fed rate cuts, inflation, and CPI updates. They analyze key sectors like consumer goods, airlines, and tech stocks while discussing current valuations and earnings reports. The gang also discusses their favorite car manufacturer/future robotaxi company Tesla. Special guest Lori Calvasina, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, shares her insights on the equity market landscape, the Russell 2000 index performance, and her revised S&P 500 price target of 5,700. The conversation also covers labor market trends, the impact of presidential election years, and the transformative potential of generative AI. The episode blends deep analytical insights with light-hearted pop culture references. Further Reading Home Insurance Premiums Are Surging—and States Are Allowing It (WSJ) Citadel Securities Crafts Plan to Shake Up Banks' Trading Desks (Bloomberg) Subscribe to our newsletter: https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe — About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money's Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They're offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we're here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. — Check out our show notes here See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. — Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod on Twitter or @riskreversalmedia on Threads — We're on social: Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Thomas @LizThomasStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

On this episode of Strategic Alternatives, we share a rebroadcast of the Meb Faber Show podcast episode, featuring Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in which she explains why the US market has become more sentiment driven in the post COVID era. She shares her thoughts on the valuations of the top 10 stocks and the broad market. She also touches on small cap stocks, takeaways from earnings season, and her early thoughts on 2025.

Is this slow grind more a show of the bull market's resilience or evidence of short-term fatigue? Adam Parker from Trivariate, UBS' David Lefkowitz and Ayako Yoshioka of Wealth Enhancement Group break down their point of view. Plus, RBC's Lori Calvasina revised her S&P outlook. She explains the reasoning behind that and where she thinks the market is headed in the second half. And, Amazon hit another record high – gaining more than 7% in one week. We tell you what is behind that rally.

Former PIMCO Chief Economist Paul McCulley gets you set for the next big data points the Fed is watching and what it means for the market. RBC's Lori Calvasina and BNY's Jake Jolly on market positioning. Plus, our Sara Eisen breaks down Nike's numbers before Barclays analyst Adrienne Yih dives deep on the stock reaction. Plus, Hunterbrook publisher and co-founder Sam Koppelman on their new report investigating Hims & Hers and why Hunterbrook Capital shorted the stock. 

On episode 147 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, to discuss: small cap stocks, Nvidia's valuation, waning short interest, potential upside surprises, mortgage rates, and much more! This episode is sponsored by Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Learn more about Goldman Sachs Asset Management Premium Income ETFs at: https://www.gsam.com Instagram: https://instagram.com/thecompoundnews Twitter: https://twitter.com/thecompoundnews LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/ Check out the latest in financial blogger fashion at The Compound shop: https://www.idontshop.com Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

RBC's Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market. This week, we are excited to have Chris Louney, Commodity Strategist on RBC's Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research team, guest hosting this week's episode while Lori is out.Three big things you need to know: First, while gold prices have had a strong rally this year, having hit record highs last month, we remain cautious. We think that gold is overvalued from the perspective of a number of key macro drivers and that there are some unrealized vulnerabilities to the pillars of gold's rally. While we are cautious, it's more because we do not think gold should be at such high levels just yet. Second, while May and June have seen a less weak and more rangebound trend for gold-backed ETPs, we are not convinced that investors are beginning to follow through just yet. Investors sold their gold holdings as prices rallied, and we've yet to see a sustained return to buying. Third, central bank demand has been a key pillar to the gold rally but as China's pause in purchasing showed, there are vulnerabilities. To be clear, we still think that central bank demand will continue to be strong, but there are reasons to be cautious on the volume at record prices and after such a sustained period of strength.

Today's guest is Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. She was recently named to Barron's 100 Most Influential Women in U.S. Finance. In today's episode, Lori explains why the US market has become more sentiment driven in the post COVID era. She shares her thoughts on the valuations of the top 10 stocks and the broad market. She also touches on small cap stocks, takeaways from earnings season, and her early thoughts on 2025. (1:11) Welcome to our guest, Lori Calvasina (3:50) Indicators and gauging market sentiment today (10:37) Current market valuations (13:08) Impact of upcoming election on financial markets (17:05) US small cap stocks setup (20:24) Value versus growth discussion (36:56) Lori's favorite indicators (42:37) Lori's most memorable investment ----- Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: 10 East is a membership-based investment firm founded by Michael Leffell, former Deputy Executive Managing Member of Davidson Kempner, focused on providing targeted exposure to private markets. Members invest at their discretion in single-investment and niche fund vehicles across private credit, real estate, private equity, and venture capital. Sponsor: Today's episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world's largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here. Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Stocks surge into the close but major averages ended May lower. RBC's Lori Calvasina on the path forward for the markets. Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen on shipping costs surging and how transports are impacting inflation. Siemens CEO Roland Busch on automation in manufacturing and how the European giant is positioning its portfolio mix.  

The Dow topped 40,000 for the first time ever before turning lower at the close. Cummins CEO Jennifer Rumsey on raising the company's long-term financial targets, plus the demand picture for its power generators amid the AI boom. The Bahnsen Group's David Bahnsen and RBC's Lori Calvasina break down where markets go from here. Earnings from Applied Materials and Take-Two. Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon on where we are in the semiconductor cycle. Our Melissa Repko on what Walmart's earnings mean about the state of the consumer. 

-Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets-Mark McCormick, Global Head of FX Strategy, TD Securities-Sonal Desai, Fixed Income CIO, Franklin TempletonLori Calvasina of RBC Capital Markets reacts to big swings in mega-cap tech stock prices, saying "growth investors get angsty." Mark McCormick of TD Securities discusses the historic moves in the Japanese Yen, saying the BOJ will be forced to tighten policy more than what's currently priced-in. Sonal Desai of Franklin Templeton previews Wednesday's Fed decision and shares her outlook on the bond market, saying the long end of the yield curve will move higher over time. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Is the stock market's indecisive start to the second quarter another pause on the way higher… or the stirrings of the first proper pullback in five months? RBC's Lori Calvasina gives her take. Plus, Disney won its proxy fight against Trian's Nelson Peltz. Top analyst Laura Martin from Needham breaks down what this might mean for the stock in the long run. And, Ford shares popped on some strong sales numbers. Phil Lebeau explains what this report means for the rest of the autos space and Ford's EV competitors. 

In Lori Calvasina's role as Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, assessing the interaction between macro variables like rates with top-down factors like the equity market multiple is critical. But important as well is an evaluation of markets from the bottoms up. And here, she not only seeks to pull together the views of colleagues doing strategy work in sector verticals, but also to actually read earning transcripts during reporting season to get a sense of what companies are saying. Her broad assessment of the outlook for corporate America is generally optimistic as she sees companies having come out of multiple stress exercises - trade wars, the Covid shock, and the inflation and monetary policy response in the Pandemic's aftermath among them - with a stronger defensive plan. Companies are harnessing technology and managing costs more effectively, leaving them less likely to be forced to reduce headcount. The result is a consumer holding up quite well.Our discussion touches on the Mag7 and how today's top-heavy portion of the market is similar and different to the highfliers of the tech bubble. For Lori, the valuation premium for names like NVDA and other mega cap tech stocks is justified by the premium of earnings growth they've been able to consistently deliver. We explore the impact of higher rates on the market's multiple and the relative performance of sectors as rates rise or fall. She likes energy, both for its high dividend yield, its strong relative performance as rates rise and the potential for a geopolitical tailwind. On this last front, asked about the market risks that she worries about, it is uncertainty on the global political front along with the US election. She also cites sentiment that may be too bullish and positioning that appears stretched. Lastly, we touch on Lori's recent recognition as one of Barron's Top 100 Most Influential Women in US Finance. Asked about industry efforts to empower female careers in finance, she's optimistic, arguing that it's critical to have not just a mentor but a sponsor as well to push you to the next level.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Lori Calvasina.

After a four month rally based on a Goldilocks economy, AI excitement and the prospect of an easier Fed – is the playbook changing as the first quarter winds down? Adam Parker from Trivariate Research and Jordan Jackson of JP Morgan Asset Management break down their forecasts. Plus, RBC's Lori Calvasina explains why she is bullish on the energy space. And, Goldman Sachs' Elizabeth Burton tells us her approach to diversifying your portfolio and the two “I's” she is excited about right now. 

The S&P 500 closes at a record high after hitting an intraday all-time high. The Nasdaq also notching an intraday record. RBC's Lori Calvasina and Bespoke's Paul Hickey break down the market action, plus earnings from Broadcom, Marvell, Costco, Gap, Docusign, MongoDB and Samsara. Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon dives deep into the Broadcom numbers and its AI exposure. CFRA's Arun Sundaram on Costco's quarterly results. Neiman Marcus CEO talks the luxury consumer and bringing tech to high-end shopping.  

RBC's Markets in Motion is the weekly podcast from Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighting her latest views on the US equity market. This week, we are excited to have Chris Louney, Commodity Strategist on RBC's Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research team, guest hosting this week's episode while Lori is on vacation.Three big things you need to know: First, in our most recent analysis of global commodity investor flows, we have observed that total commodity investor AUM has started off the year on a weak note. Commodity-linked exchange traded products have continued to decline, led by gold, and commodity index AUM also weakened last month. This has set 2024 up for quite the balancing act, but we remain hopeful.Second, with gold playing such an outsized role in the weakness dominating commodity AUM, it may be surprising that gold prices have actually held up quite well. We have continued to call out gold's price resilience, especially in the context of investors having remained on the sidelines. This compared to the gold-positive narrative of eventual rate cuts has left gold itself facing quite the balancing act.Third, a balancing act that has for the most part not played out in a commodity's favor so far this year is US natural gas. It has touched lows recently amid weak weather-linked demand, buoyant supplies to date, and general bearish sentiment. We have described it as a commodity that has fallen a bit too far, seemingly waiting for a catalyst, but are recent headlines enough?

Helane Becker, TD Cowen Sr. Research Analyst, remains confident in the airline industry despite the recent Boeing in-flight safety incident. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says sentiments around the equity market got carried away at the end of 2023. Claudia Sahm, Sahm Consulting Founder & Bloomberg Opinion Writer, says December's jobs data points to a healthy labor market. Isaac Boltansky, BTIG Director of Policy Research, discusses Congress' agreement on a spending-cap deal as well as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's unannounced stay in the hospital. Barton Crockett, Rosenblatt Securities Managing Director, details the reasons behind his firm's neutral outlook on Apple this year. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. 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Transcript:This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Helene Becker joins now senior research analyst at TD Cowen, and we're thrilled that she could be with us today. Helene, January twenty second. I guess we get an earnings report from United, the others will lined up. What is their urgency to act, not so much off the Boeing accident, but their urgency to act because of the topsy turvy markets they're in now. I think that we have a situation where we're expecting, or we saw fourth quarter traffic was pretty good. The further we get away from twenty twenty, the more we'll see managed corporate travel come back. I think the trip where you have maybe a one day trip isn't coming back anytime soon. I feel like it's a lot like after nine to eleven tom when the really short haul trips went away, and we expect that to continue really now. But the longer haul trips. People need to get out, they need to see their clients. We've been talking about this for about a year now and we're seeing that. We're seeing that increase in managed travel, and we think that we'll continue into the rest of this year. With the Boeing accident, with the rivets, the fasteners, whatever, we're going to see in the coming weeks of that analysis, even months, I should say, of that analysis, what does it mean for the dynamic of refleeting A word I discovered last week. I think Helene Becker, you know, refleeting is going out and buying the bright, shiny new thing accelerated. Yeah, well yes, and no American did their refleeting in the last decade, so they're on the downside of that. United is doing it now and into twenty thirty two. Delta is in the middle of it. But Delta has a different and Southwest actually have different viewpoints on the way they refleet. They kind of spend about ten percent revenue on capex, somewhere between eight and ten percent every year, so they're continually refleeting, so we view that fairly favorably. I don't think anything changes. There's a lot of pressure on the industry to lower their carbon footprint. I know aviation only makes up two percent of total transportation carbon, but others are doing the whole reduction carbon faster, so aviation over time will become a bigger percentage of it. So there's a lot of pressure to fly young are more fully efficient aircraft oleane. I can't get past this comment from George ferguson words you never want to hear, when he basically came out and said it's not as safe as it was before the pandemic, talking about the safety of flying at a time when we did just have this incident with Alaska Airlines, also the incident that we saw in Japan, Questions around the competency and staffing levels at some of the agencies. Are you concerned? Do you feel like that is an accurate statement that it is not as safe to fly today as pre pandemic. No, no, no, I disagree with that completely. The fact that there were no casualties on the japan Air A three thirty is hugely significant. They were able to evacuate that entire aircraft without any incident, with half the doors being half the emergency doors being unusable because of fire. So I think that's one thing to consider. I think from an aviation perspective and a safety perspect that every time there's an incident, there's an investigation. There is no cover up. You never see that as you would in some as you may in some other industries. There have it. I mean, not to cha the industry, but there really haven't been any major accidents. The fact that Alaska air pilots were able to declare any emergency turnaround land safely with no injuries is hugely significant. And I think aviation is still the sepest form of transportation. No other industry does the deep dive into accidents that aviation does, and then aviation trains for every accident, and I think I think it's I think aviation is still very safe. I think that a lot of people will point to what happened in Japan and point out that that plane that everyone did manage to get out of I believe was an air bus and not a poet. But nevertheless, Yeah, So going forward, though, I'm curious what about some of the air traffic control issues and some of these other things. How important is it for airlines to do some sort of pr job, if nothing else, to assuage some of the concerns of neurotic people like myself. Where you're looking at this and thinking like, I don't know, well, I think you have to think aviation is safe number one. Number two, Yes, we do need to address the air traffic control situation, and the fact that we now have a permanent administrator is hugely important. That's another, you know, another thing that we view favorably. The FAA is certified to March eighth, so the government needs to really step up its efforts and get it certified permanently. My views are different than some of my peer group. I personally think the government should be responsible for safety and security, and I think your traffic control should be a separate corporation that's public that's paid for everybody. Right now, General Aviation, TOLUM and least in John don't pay for using air traffic control system. Helen, this is I wish we had another hour to cover this because I think each and every listener and viewer want to know about Back to the Reagan uproar and unions of years ago. How different is our transportation safety structure versus other major developing countries. Yeah, so euro Control runs Europe and that's a public company and Canada's public company and Canada it's just run differently. And I'm not saying it's better. I'm not saying it's worse. I'm just saying it's different, and you don't have the puts and starts that you have here. I've been talking about next gen since I started covering the industry four decades ago, and we're still talking about it. It's years behind schedule, it's over budget. Air traffic control, to your point, Tom, the Reagan administration fired all the air traffic controllers. They retrained them NAT because the union that represents them. They're they're well trained, but they're overworked, they're fatigued. We don't have enough of them to handle what we're doing right now, and so the aviation system will slow down. You won't be able to We'll see growth through replacing smaller aircraft with larger aircraft. We don't think we'll see the same level of pilot hiring in twenty four and twenty five that we saw in twenty one, two and three. That from that perspective. As we move further into the decade and people have more experience, that will be beneficial. But we're not going to grow as fast as we grow in prior decades because we just don't have the experience, and we can push the air traffic controllers to too much over time because it's a very taxing job to begin with, and we don't want any accidents to occur in the US because we want to continue to be able to say it's the safest form of transportation. Helen, I've got sixty seconds left on a clock top pic if ivor trade this year? What is it? Oh? Yeah, our favorite trade this year is Delta after United was our face for trade for the past two years. Why the change? The difference in capex, frankly is the biggest difference. I think United will continue to do well, but they're going to borrow a lot of money, sick. They have a sixty billion dollar capex program between now and twenty thirty two, and Deltas is not nearly as big, so you won't see the stress and the balance sheet that you may see at United. Interesting, Helene, thank you, thanks for the up date and lane backing there of td count, Thank you very much. Starting in the conversation this morning with Lori Cavassino, the head of US screty strategy at RBC Capital Markets, Loury, Good morning to you. This line jumped down from your most recent note, the week's start in January is just the beginning of a phase of turbulence. How concerned are you about that? Well, well, Johnny, I was talking to one of my traders last week and we were discussing the CFTC data. We're starting to see it's really just looking very very stretched, and I said, this looks scary, and I think we need to keep in mind that sentiment has been oscillating very very quickly over the last six months, so this isn't necessarily something that has to derail a call for the year. Maybe damp an enthusiasm just a little bit, but really what we've started to see the CFTC data on institutional investor positioning line up with what we're seeing on the retail survey for aaii, and both are looking very very stretched right now. I think there are a number of things that could come in and trip this market up a bit, but usually it's something the market doesn't see coming, So I think we need to focus here on the idea that sentiment itself just got carried away at the end of last year. Laurie Mike Wilson has been cautious on the markets. Over at Morgan Stanley has a brilliant paragraph parketing to nominal growth could be the surprise this year. It's one of his more optimistic constructions of where we're heading in the mystery of twenty twenty four, what do mid caps and small caps do? If we get legitimate animal spirit, we get legitimate nominal GDP. So what we've done typically seen is that when GDP and we tend to look at it in real terms as opposed to nominal terms. But if you're looking at real GDP above two point six percent, and two point six percent has been the long term average since the late seventies, we typically see that small caps and value stocks outperform in that environment. When GDP is running cool below trend, that's when large caps and growth tend to outperform. So it goes back to this question of leadership and rotation in the market. We've got GDP forecasts sitting at about one point three percent this year. That's up from about one percent back in November, so they're moving in the right direction. But if we really want to get a lasting, sustainable, durable leadership rotation away from the megacap growth stocks and into basically everything else in the market, you need to see GDP expectations move up quite a bit more from where they are right now. I mean, okay, well, the GDP's got to come up. I get that, But what do we do right now? I mean, you're deploying cash to small you know they've pulled back. You deploying cash this morning to small caps and mid caps. So I still like them, I don't like them quite as much as I did, you know, say four or five weeks ago when we last spoke. One of the things we've seen is that, in addition to sentiment getting a little frothy at the broader market, if you look at small cap positioning on the CFTC data, we're at important crossroads. We're basically at the three year highs, but we're not at all time highs. So we're going to know pretty soon whether or not small caps are really able to power through and take things up another leg of we's also still seeing that small caps look very cheap relative to large But if you look at a Russell two thousand and forward pe, it's back to average. Now that's not usually where things top out at, but it is telling us that maybe we have made a lot of the easy money in small caps already. So do I like them? Yes? Do I like them as much as I did a month ago? Not quite? This sounds all kind of negative, and yet you just upgraded your forecast for year end twenty twenty four to a fifty one fifty. That's a ten percent upside from here. If it's not small caps what leads. So I think that the value stocks in particular are something to keep an eye on. From here. We've seen the financials act quite well now I'm actually a little bit nervous about that heading into reporting season, but we've started to see some more favorable views emerge on the industrials as well. So I think we're going to get some interesting clues in this reporting season. But I do think sector composition is very, very tough right now. I do think, Lisa, if you kind of go back to our target, we were anticipating about a ten percent return, and we put that target out in early our mid November we were on sort of the earlier side of putting targets out. We trued up all of our you know, sort of models for year end. We did have this big, ferocious run in December, and now where we're sitting today, even with this upgrade on the fifty one to fifty, it's only about an eight percent return on the year, So it's not necessarily getting more bullish. It's just kind of truing up our model for the year ahead based on the moves that we had in December. You mentioned banks, and I find this interesting. How important is Friday going to be as JP Morgan kicks off earnings to give a sense of what the landscape is for banks? Or is it just JP Morgan's world and everybody else is living in it? So I think they all matter, Lisa. You know, I don't think it's just any one particular bank. I know some get more attention than others, especially the one that come at the beginning. But I tell you what I think is important for the banks is one, are those sort of strong numbers that we've seen in terms of performance going to hold up. Sometimes we do see, you know, sort of the banks give back when they've had a strong lead into reporting season, So are the numbers going to be good enough to really justify sustaining some of the better trends we've seen recently. I think that's one thing. But also I think for someone like me who's not a specialist in the financials, we really go in and look at the financials for clues on the plumbing of the economy, on the health of the consumer. And I think that's probably going to be the most important thing coming out of the next kind of week or so with those banks earnings, the real headline over the weekend coming into this morning a positive surprise in Washington, d C. Laurie this story congressional leaders announcing a deal on top line spending for the current fiscal year. Laurie, I was speaking to Wemy with Silverman in the last week and we talked about your line that talking about politics the election this year specifically is like staring at the sun. Is it that bad this year for you and the team? Yeah, it's pretty awful, John. I mean it's interesting that line comes from my conversations with US based investors who are like, Okay, it's time to write our outlooks. You know, this is kind of thinking back the last month or so, you know, what do we say about this? And we kind of walk people through data, We get through it quickly, and then we move on European and Canadian investors. I mean, you could easily spend a whole meeting on this. It's like it's like a spectator sport for them at this point. But I do think it's a major source of uncertainty. And I'll tell you what it was interesting to me last week when I was working through some of the data we saw at the end of the year in the beginning of this year, is that you are starting to see money flows improve or turn positive to Japan, to emerging markets, to China, and to Europe. US flows are still holding up, but we are starting to see non US geographies really attract, you know, some better flows. And I think part of that has to do with the election. Based on what I'm hearing from the non US investors, Laurie answer a question for OURBC clients watching listening, which is, jeez, we started the year week and that signals a terrible year ahead. Is there any valid to that emotion? So I tend to be very skeptical of you know, these seasonal, you know kind of studies. Whenever we do this on this day, we do this for the rest of the week. I think that those kinds of studies can be massaged frankly, you know, change your starting point to show whatever you want to show. I've been actually looking at seasonality over the last ten years. We've had some good ones, we've had some stinkers, but we have seen that January has been pretty much a mixed bag. There have been some difficult ones if you especially look over the last five years. So it would be sort of keeping with a recent seasonality to have a rough start to the year. Does that necessarily tell you that you have to run away for the rest of the year. I don't think so. And I go back to what we talked about at the top of the show. Sentiment has been oscillating so quickly. We were basically overbought in August, oversold in November, overbought in December again, and that all round tripped off of oversold conditions last October and post SVB. So I think that sentiment helps you tactically. I don't think you can use it that much to make a really kind of longer term view. At this point, Laurie. Wonderful to get your views this morning. Thanks Obama. This lor Convasaye of the vampy seat capital market. Claudia sam will be up all night watching a football game as well. Claudia for the Department of Economics at Michigan, all that heritage. What does blue football actually mean? Do you completely ignore it? Or are you at the fifty yard line for every game? Well, they don't. Let the grad students have very good seats. But we went. You know, it's it's Michigan, Go Blue, Go Blue. We'll see tonight. Thank you so much for joining Claudia. Barry rid Oldson. You had a great idea out there that in our hysteria right now of single statistics, we have denominator blindness. Let's take the national debt the interest expense of that, and we forget how large our economy is or how large our labor force is. How is hysterical are we right now? And do we need to calm down? Well, we've needed to calm down for decades. This is not a new conversation. The debt has to be put in context, not just of our GDP. That's a flow that we get that every year. We need to think about in terms of their wealth, which is multiples of what that debt is. And I also a firm believer, and we need to look under the hood and what are we spending our money on. There's good ways to do it investment R and D, and there's ways that aren't as good, maybe really high income tax cuts. So that's where we need to have a conversation, not just throwing around big numbers. Is the FED throwing around big numbers? Are they having a conversation as they move out into twenty twenty four that you would consider appropriate and rational in terms of the debt or in terms of what they're doing in terms of what they're going to do with their monetary policy? Excuse me? Yeah, no, I mean the FED is trying to do the impossible. Well, right now, my heart goes out to them, and we will play a parlor game for the next year or two and what their next move is. And yeah, they've got the eye on the prize, right. They work through financial markets, but they really don't care about financial markets. It's about getting inflation down, it's about keeping people with jobs. And we're well on our way, but it's going to be tough. To know when they're there and can say, okay, we can back off. Let's do an anatomy of what happened on Friday, because it was some confusing data that I tried to parse through and continue to and read more reports, and I'm just as confused. Which data screams the truest to you at a time where we got stronger than expected headline number, some real shows of strength, and then real signs of weakness, particularly in services. Employment. Big picture of Friday's payrolls was a good day. We had unemployments staying at three point seven percent. We're averaging a little under two hundred thousand jobs in recent months. If you think about what the labor market is buffering, we have a five percentage point more than that increase in the federal funds rate. This is a labor market. Now. You can go under the hood. You can do this in almost any month and say, ugh, that doesn't look so good now. Granted, there were some real science things to keep an eye on, you know, and we always need to, but this was not a flashing red We're going over the cliff. I mean, come on, we've been under the one employer it's been under four percent for the longest stretch since the nineteen sixties. Well, it's good. What about the services ISM data. That's fact that hiring fell the most, the sort of sub index for that particular data point came in the most going back to twenty twenty at the height of the pandemic. Does this make you feel like we're at a tipping point? Even if no, we're not heading into the abyss that we are cooling off in a much more material way. It's been like case last year. We needed to rebounce. We needed to get to a place that was expansionary but not red hot. I mean, we were coming out of a really bad labor market with COVID. So we do need to see things normalizing slowing, not just this pace that's been so strong, because we want to get to a sustainable place and there are going to be all signs. Frankly, I take a lot more out of the payrolls data than I do the ISM and we need to look at everything. And yet we've gotten a lot of mixed signals from the data you know so far. So we adres a Samrell for us right now? How many states are in a miserable situation, doctor Son? So I haven't looked at every state recently. One that has stood out, and I imagine is still in the same place as California. That's a really good example of how you can have an industry that's having a tough time. I mean, tech in the Bay Area is legitimately having some tough times, and yet we have seen no signs of its spreading because it's an industry issue, it's not like a broad based contraction. And I will say at the national level, the samrull went back down to two tenths of a percentage point, So looking good so far. Coldly, I just want to weigh in on some of the politics, and I don't want to beg you too much, but whenever I listen to you talk about the labor market, you offer clarity where clarity can be found, and why there isn't any It leaves the question open. It's ready digestible, very very intuitive. Why do you think this administration is struggling with the messaging so much around what's happening with this economy? For a long time, Democrats have really put an emphasis on being the adult in the room. When I saw the jobs number, I had a gift that I use as like boom. You know, it's like, come on, let's get excited about this. Yes, there's more to do, and yet when I look at all it has been accomplished in the last four years and even during the Trump administration, the big push with CARES Act we really help people. Is not perfect, but like, don't hide behind what you've done, like go out and say we did agree. Job Okay, Then why can't they do that? I mean, John brings up an incredibly important point. Claudie sim You've been in the trenches. Why can't somebody just come out not say, you know, Rosie Morning in America and all that, but say, look, we understand the agonies out there, but boy has this worked out from COVID versus many other countries and continents. I really don't know. I mean, I have come across the fact that across the democratic spectrum there's just so much anger at each other. I mean, I've gotten the worst feedback from far left, and you know center isn't exactly happy with me either. So it's just it's so strange, right, But you know, I don't know. I hate politics. I really don't understand it. I just keep doing my work and trying to explain and trying to learn from what people are going through, and we value your work. Clodia, thank you as always, just fantastic to hear from you. Todi Samda of some consulting right now on your Washington. Isaac Multanski joints Director of Policy Research at BTIG. Isaac, I got to go with the lead a headline, which is, I guess all clear in Congress we've actually passed a budget. Is that true? Absolutely not. That couldn't be farther from the truth. We now have top line agreement on what we can spend for the fiscal year. That's great, it's wonderful, and that just means that the hard work gets to begin now. You know, I think you're two points to highlight. Number one is you've got to notice how angry the far right flank of the House GOP is this morning. We need to understand that the speaker, Speaker Johnson is operating with no room for error and he will almost certainly need democratic support to pass his bill. That's something that former Speaker McCarthy didn't want to do, ended up doing and then got thrown out from the speakership. And the number two is there are so many points of departure between Democrats and Republicans when it comes to the specifics of the spending agreement. There are upwards of forty different poison pills some groups have counted that could shut down the talks around this. So look, I think the temperature has been taken down. The risk of a shutdown is slightly lower this morning. But there's still a lot of work that needs to be done over the next eleven days. So what's the primary to do list arking over the next eleven days. Yeah, So what I'm looking looking at is I can get movement on the other issues around the spending bill. So it's good that we've got this, and now I think the appropriators will slink back into their offices and you'll see some backroom negotiation and maybe not much on that. I'm interested in the border deal, Tom, because we've got to keep in mind, the spending agreement is just part of this three D chess game that we have going on. The other part is the supplemental spending measures, and here I'm talking about border security, and then of course funding for Taiwan, Ukraine and Israel. That's the other part of it. And we'll Lynch. All of that is the border security deal that we're now expecting to come later this week. You mentioned the international security concerns, big foreign policy issues. We've got to talk about the curious case of the missing Defense Secretary now Isaac. First of all, we wish him all a speedy recovery from what none of us sink to know the detail. According to our reporting, Lloyd Austin underwent an elective procedure in late December, didn't tell his staff they should notify others when he was admitted to Walter Reed Medical Center on New Year's Day after experiencing severe pain at the same time as chief of staff was ill with the flu, and failed to notify anyone, the person said that we've been speaking to. According to our source, that Austin's military aid quickly put Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks in charge of running the Pentagon, although she wasn't informed of the reason for this decision, and the President seemingly for days didn't have a clue. I say, what was going on? What is going on? This is one of the weirder stories you're going to come across in the Biden administration, which by and large has been pretty tame when it comes to these personnel stories, especially compared to the previous four years. But it's deeply unsettling, right, I know that the secretary is an incredibly personal excuse me, an incredibly private person, and that this is something that all the staff have highlighted about him. Don't get to be this private when you're sixth in line in the presidential line of succession, and so, Look, this is deeply unsettling, especially given that transparency is one of the pillars of our political system. But ultimately, this too shall pass, and I think it just reminds you of some of the stories of personnel volatility that we saw during the Trump administration, which is going to be one of the campaign trail considerations as well. You said volatility. Do you expect him to step down? No, Look, I think that, depending on health, of course, that he is going to be fine. I mean, the President has not made any comment that suggests that the Defense Secretary won't will leave here, so I think he will stay. I wouldn't be surprised if he's replaced if the President Biden does win reelection, though, I think this is the type of thing that doesn't get you reappointed. Well, this raises a question though, in general about foreign policy and also the platform for President Biden going forward. There were a list of asks that people are talking about his new platform, all of which you're going to get red and are dead in the water. Is he going to basically be running on the anti Trump candidacy once again at a time when Trump is consolidating a lot of popular support. Yeah. Look, I mean there's obviously you've heard that line a thousand times that you campaign in poetry, but you govern in pros I don't think anyone's going to like the poetry we see from a campaign trail this time around. It is truly going to be a fear driven campaign. It is fear of the other side. It is fear of reversal, is fear of retribution. I don't seem to think that we're going to see much hope and excitement coming from the campaign trail over the next few months. Isaac, you know the polarity of the states with Ohio and Ohio Wesleyan, I'm absolutely fascinating of the polarity in the Iowa caucuses. What is the distinctive tension as we begin the political season in Iowa. I mean, looking, presidential primaries are about retail politics, and they're about and they're about personal preference more so than any national old pole could ever understand. And then when we think about Iowa, we've got to think about President Trump having a thirty two point leaked and we've got to think about also, and I think this is important. Tom DeSantis went all in on Iowa. This is it for him. And if he comes in second and loses by thirty points, which the polls are suggesting, pretty hard to imagine him being considered a serious contender going to New Hampshire where he's clearly third at far behind Haley. And so really this is to me, Iowa is a little assess for the DeSantis campaign. If he loses as badly as it looks, I think that his campaign, which already been floundering, will effectively be over. And it's really a question then of how strongly Nikki Haley can look in New Hampshire a week later. But to that point, Isaac, if he loses and he has to drop out, who does he back? Where do those votes go? Look? I think it will be incredibly difficult for him to back anyone. I think that he will remain in the background. My bet though, is that those bets, those vote's actually split somewhat to Haley and the rest stay home from the primary. But my point to clients say is Trump is going to be the nominee. That is very clear right now. He is the likely nominee. Those votes weren't trying to figure out where they're going. They're going to him in the general election. And so that's the important point here. There's still so many clients and so many people in DC who don't want it to be Trump v. Biden, and I understand that. But all indications are it's Trump vi Bide, and that's what the market and DC folks need to start wrapping their heads around when we think about the politics and the policy of it all. Isaac, thank you, sir, isa Boltanski then of b tch bot, a Crockett senior research analyst that rusn't black securities join just not for more. But and let's talk about that the prospective. Say I was picking up for the iPhone and what's been holding them back over the last year. Well, look, I think that you know, we downgraded Apple in August early August. We currently have one hundred and eighty nine dollars price target neutral rating, And you know, our concern at that time is that you had a combination of a muted growth trajectory really across much of the company, including the iPhone, certainly factoring prominently into that, and a high valuation. So that combination, in our mind was not compelling, not something you needed to be overweight on. I think the issue with the iPhone is the feature set, innovation and the consumer pocketbook and some question about China, and I think all of those things have you know, given us data points that are very supportive of the notion that you're in a very muted place right now for iPhone. And I think given that that's something like fifty percent of sales, very difficult for that stock to have a lot of excitement. I think if there's not a lot of excitement in the iPhone marton, the basic idea here I guess for the bulls is they're running it for profit. If you look at the Evada margin from COVID twenty nineteen, they've moved from twenty nine cents on the dollar up to thirty three cents in the dollar. Even if they get a Barton krack at sales lassitude. Can they maintain margins? You know? The company I think can maintain margins, you know, but I don't know that that's type of story, you know, nickel and diming margins, muted growth is something that's going to be really compelling at currently about twenty ape thirty PE when we downgrade it, I think the certainly, it's a great company. It's a good company that you could want to own at the appropriate price. But I think you've got to be price sensitive. I think it's a maturing company, and you can't buy it at any multiple, and you can't sit back and predict blue sky multiple expansion and perpetuity with this type of business as we see it right now. I look at the center tendency of a long term chart when you say a pullback, how much would that be if you do get some negative news out of China, et cetera. Is this from one to eighty down to one sixty, which is a center distribution? You know, certainly we would feel more comfortable with a healthy double digit return to our price target. You know, I do have some comfort with our estimates and with the street consensus. I do believe that you know, people have baked in the idea of a very muted iPhone. You know, this is a company you can own at the right price, but it's a mature company price. It's not a growth multiple. I think, Martin, is this an Apple problem or is this a big tech problem? More broadly, you know, I think this is much more Apple. I mean, we look at some other big tech companies in our coverage and we see a really great confluence of things developing lower interest rates, certainly supporting multiples, expansion, certainly favoring scarce growth, which you don't have it Apple, but you do have it things like Amazon, And I think there's been a reset in the Internet model. People have understood that you can run these businesses with much better margins, much more efficiently. You know. So while you're nickel and diming some mar improvement at Apple, you're seeing explosive margin improvement at Amazon, at Meta, Pinterest, at Spotify. You know, those that I think are much more interesting opportunities in this environment. I've never thought that people would say Pinterest in Spotify would trump Apple when it came to potential opportunities. Is it negative enough in your view for them to really drop out of the mag seven for this to be defined by a very different narrative that Apple is just not included in in twenty twenty four. Well, you know, I mean max seven certainly, that's kind of, you know, a term of art. I guess the thing with Apple is, I think it's a CpG company. I think that, you know, it's a company that you'd like to own at the right price, you know, in a certain macro environment where perhaps it's defensive, if the economy is slowing, maybe it's more interesting. But you don't need to be overweight Apple in every environment. You should pick and choose your places. I always wonder what the appropriate multiple on that name actually is. You've got the core good, the iPhone going ex grow, You've got a multiple that still looks pretty growthy as the revenue mix starts to shift towards services. I'm ordering from your perspective, what most part did you put on that business? Well, look, I mean I think that it's trading at about one point four times or so the market multiple. You know, I think a lesser premium is appropriate. You know, you can give it some premium given the strength of its franchise, the strength of its brand, the durability you know, the iPhone's not going away, and they've got good cash flow and good share repurchase. So to think that this could be a load image twenties multiple makes more sense to me than a thirty multiple. Bana, Thank you, sir for your insight. The update to a new year. Bona Crockett there of Rosenblat Securities. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern. Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app you can watch us live. I'm Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen and this is BloombergSee 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On this episode of On The Tape, Guy Adami and Dan Nathan sit down with Lori Calvasina of RBC for her stock market outlook. Plus, Guy and Danny Moses run through a handful of single stocks and topics on D-MO's radar. Key Insights from the Pod: Stock market seasonality changes since Lori's last appearance (2:15) Rate cut impacts on stocks (4:20) Small caps vs. mega-cap growth stocks (8:40) Lori's 2024 forecast (14:45) Crude oil (21:30) China (23:25) What U.S investors are discounting (24:30) The path to Lori's S&P 500 target of 5,000 (26:00)  The gold market (38:15) The Bank of Japan/Yen (42:25) The equity market whistling past a graveyard (46:30) Energy stocks (48:00) Unemployment (51:30) Bank CEOs in DC (53:45) Cerevel options trading surge before AbbVie deal news raises eyebrows (56:00) Tesla (57:10) Danny's tirade on GameStop (58:50) NFL picks of the week (1:02:15) — About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money's Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They're offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we're here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. — Check out our show notes here Learn more about Ro body: ro.co/tape See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. — Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod on Twitter or @riskreversalmedia on Threads — We're on social: Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Young @LizYoungStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy,  says the path for equities is higher in 2024. Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group CEO, breaks down record-high Black Friday sales. Aaron David Miller, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Senior Fellow, discusses the latest on the Israel-Hamas war. Torsten Slok, Chief Economist, Apollo Global Management, says the Fed's rate policy is leading to a gradual slowdown.  Steve Schwarzman, Chairman & CEO of Blackstone Inc., says his firm has seen a bevy of buying opportunities in real estate across Europe. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance    Full transcript:  This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Farrell and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. We begin the program with Lori Cavasina, head of US ecority Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Lori, good morning. We hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving. I want to kick off with your call fifty one hundred for five thousand rather year rent on the s and P five hundred for next year Deutsche Bank going one further, a fifty one hundred, Lurie talk to us about the path to five k. Well, thanks for having me as always, and look, you know we purposefully did not put out you know, we see a near term pullback and a resurgence. I think a lot of people got caught in that trap in twenty twenty three calling for a near term pullback in the first quarter that didn't end up happening. I do think we'll be watching our sentiment indicator very closely. It's been the best star in the sky to navigate the equity market this year, but it's also round tripped a couple of times. It started out giving you a screaming by signal because of deep pessimism. Return to that post. SBB gave a sales signal in August and then gave a by signal again in November. So I think we're going to have to just be very tactical in that. You know, I have been telling people November is very consistently a strong month, but December is a little bit more hit or miss. So we'll see if we end up getting the Santa or Grinch in December. But I do think the path for equities is higher next year, and if we do have a bit of a short term pullback either in December to start the year, I expect it to be temporary. Llurie Goldman Sachs had a note thanks zero Edge for this on sales girls looking out two years twenty three, twenty four to twenty five and the difference between them magnificent seven with eleven percent sales grows versus the SPX four ninety three of three percent sales growth. Why would anybody sell the magnificent seven right now? I think it's a great question, Tom. When we look at our indicators and we look at the megacap growth trade broadly, it looks crowded. If you look at the weekly CFTC data on Nasdaq one hundred futures positioning, we're basically close to peak valuation and growth relative to value. If you look at the rustle one thousand on a weighted PE multiple, which is going to be very heavily influenced by that magnificent seven. And if you look at earning's momentum, we're still seeing better earnings revision trends and growth and value, but value is starting to catch up a little bit, so we are seeing that leadership on the earning side fade a little bit. All of that tells me that there should be a pause in growth leadership at some point. But I think one of the reasons people can't really permanently quit these growth stocks is kind of hitting on exactly what you said, the idea that there will be superior growth there over the intermediate term. And if you look at GDP forecasts for next year one percent in real terms anticipated by the street one point eighty percent in twenty twenty five. When we're in a sub two percent GDP environment, growth stocks usually do outperform because economic growth is perceived to be scarce. So I do think there is a real tension. You know, we still like the tech sector even though we have these shorter term tactical concerns on growth, had those tactical concerns on growth frankly for a while, and they've yet to really materialize in a big way. And I do feel like you may need to see a real ratcheting up of GDP expectations before you can really see growth loose some of that leadership dominance. When you talk about sentiment and how really that's been the loadstone for you, it's figuring out where is investor sentiment em betting against it? Am I correct? Basically? You know, one of the things I've learned over my career, Lisa, is that when everybody is really really pessimistic, that's usually a fantastic time to buy. If you look at when the AAII net bullishness indicator is, you know, sort of one standard deviation or two standard deviations below the long term average. I forget the exact stat, but it's in the eighties in terms of the percent of time that you're up twelve months later. And you see similar stats if you look on the flip side when people are overly enthusiastic. Now, if you're above one standard deviation on extreme optimism, you still tend to see like a five percent gain over the next twelve months. So it's not necessarily a washout, but it does tell you that you tend to see consolidation. You do tend to see some choppier markets, And I think that's why it's so important, Lisa to really prioritize data over narratives. I know a lot of strategists like to tell a great story and then they go out and put together their charts to try to fit whatever narrative they're pushing out there. But I really think that you have to stick to the data, and things like that centiment indicator will keep you into falling into consensus traps. Again, everybody just sort of gloms onto the same narrative and things get too extreme. Well, the narrative that we've been hearing again and again is five thousand on the SMP going into next year at least, if not more, And there has been a sort of boom and optimism that we've seen. Does that mean it's time to start taking some chips off the table and to be a little bit less optimistic or does this mean that finally you might see some of that cash at record levels going into the equity market. Well, it's interestingly so you know, everybody wants to sort of talk about this idea, and this is maybe on the more barish side of the table that bonds look more attractive than stocks and the earning shield has collapsed relative to the bond yield, and all that is true, But if you actually go back, there have been periods in history when equity investors or investors in general have taken up both their equity allocations and their bond allocations at the same time. So I don't think it's unheard of for both to do. Well, you know, five thousand, it's starting to be a number we're hearing a lot. I think we were maybe the second person on the cell side that had it when we put ours out, but you are starting to hear about it. And I think ten percent is usually a reasonable place that a lot of strategists start, we do have one model that can take us up to fifty three hundred, and that's looking at our valuation work and earning's work. And I will tell you, Lisa, like and as I was putting the report together, you always think about kind of where did you go wrong in the past year. I was more optimistic than most, but not optimistic in the end. And that valuation model was the one thing that was telling me all year to look for forty seven hundred, forty eight hundred on the S and P it's pointing to forty seven hundred on the end of the year. Now twenty twenty three one point it was saying forty eight forty nine. So I do think you have to have a little bit of humility when you look at these forecasts. We look at a bunch of different models. We take the median. Some are more constructive, some are less. But I do think we do have to pay attention to that bowl case setting into next year, because so it's really what works this year? Does that mean a banner? Kelvistin says fifty three hundred. I'd like we could go there quite I think we stick with five K. I just wanted to jump in when you were putting this together. Surely five K was something like twenty percent upside of the time. So you know, John, I started back in October pricing the models, and we actually published a report in October where we said we're not going to do our target yet, but here's what all the models are showing. And back then we were getting, you know, more a little bit of a more subdued number because we had a lower starting point, so we did price everything. As of mid November, I think a lot of our models we froze as November fifteenth, November sixteenth, so we really are kind of getting sort of a true ten percent from current conditions as of mid November. Basically, when I do this, John, I go into a black hole for a few days, don't answer my phone, don't answer email, and don't talk to anybody, and update all at once. So well, welcome Bocasta the black hole, Laurie. We're happy to see you, Lori Cavasena. Obviously, Capital Markets, there's no one better to speak to on this. As if you stand at the four corners of fifty seventh Street and Fifth Avenue, the Dana Telsea is a child gazing upon Berg Dorth Goodman and across the street to Tiffany's and where Louis Vuton is now when there's some other unpronounceable I can't afford store on the other corner. Telsea joins us now CEO, chief Research officer of her Telsey Advisory Group. You got this right. A lot of people got this wrong. How did you expect this optimism that we come out of the season. Well, thank you very much for having me, and hope you guys had a great holiday. Here's I think overall, keep in mind we did have a barrage of earnings reports all talking about the cautious consumer inventory levels are lean. Promotions were in place thirty to forty That isn't outstanding, that isn't going off the rails. In terms of level of promotions, they were definitely clean. What you saw in terms of traffic, look at the Lululemons, the bathroom, body works. Macy's had more traffic than what you had at Nordstrom, and off prices like TJX had a ton of traffic. And the teen retailers picked up the reason why, value and innovation. If you add value and you had innovation, the consumer was coming So look at Uggs and Hoka where there was innovation. You look at the value on the pricing. It meant something. But we have a long season coming up now. Christmas is on a Monday. Watch that weekend before Christmas. Because procrastinators, it's their choice of when they want to spend. Just let's build them that this idea of watch what happens later in the season. Are you saying that you suspect people brought forward their shopping much more than they had in the past because they are being cautious. So the numbers are inflated to represent that more than just excessive spending altogether. Yes, I think. You look at the savings rate which has come down, You take a look at delinquencies which have gone up, and you look at what's happened with the pattern of promotions. It began in October, So with Amazon Prime Day in October their second Prime Day, you had a pull forward of what the promos were, and of course online is going to be strong. Stores are no longer open on Thanksgiving Day? So what did people do? They shop with their phone? Mobile mattered? Well, this really raises this question. Is it the modality of shopping that matters? Right now or is it the type of product mix that matters right now? And I'm curious, can you parse that up? Is it just online shopping or is it the products that people are getting online. It's the products that people are getting, and don't throw out the stores. The stores matter, the engagement that people have, the social interaction. So many companies in twenty twenty three came out with new store formats. You look at on mall and off mall, they both won and even outlets are strong. And that measure for value, where's the best total return of twelve months? You and Joe Feldman they're not on speaking terms on this, but the basic idea of which kind of retail and which individual stock is the best possibility off price I think is going to win over the next twelve months. TJ Max, would you off price? Off price? Not luxury, different world, it's off price. It's the TJ max Is of the world, the Burlington's and the Ross stores. Why they're getting the benefit of a trade down. Look at what you just saw in their results last week when they each delivered same store sales of at least five percent, when you typically these are three percent same store sales increases. They're getting the benefit of the trade down. There's been a heritage of Tjmax executing what's the secret sauce that makes them do that? The experience of their buyers. They know how to buy, They have their relationships with brands. Brands like being in their stores and they sell through and don't forget their locations. The description that you're painting of the American consumer is not that positive. It's one that is trading down. As you said, it's one that has caution that might not show up in force before that Monday Christmas. So where are we in this cycle, right? I mean, is this a matter of people running out of money or is it just them saying, well, we've been spending a lot recently. We probably should be a little more prudent. They had more money two years ago with the stimulus package during the pandemic. The load to middle income consumer is battered right now by higher interest rates. Even though inflation's moderating, it's still a higher price than it was in the past. And even you take a look at the luxury consumer, you need the feel good factor. With the geopolitical issues going on, the macro headwinds out there and the volatility the stock market, it makes it more challenging. So that's why experience. Look at the tailor swift concerts over the summer, what people are willing to spend on. Give them something innovative, they'll be there. So what does it say about the trajectory of the consumer and how people are going to be spending. Is it the beginning of more pain or is this basically the bulk of it. I think this is in the middle of the pain that we're I think the focus on essentials is right there. I think you need newness in order to drive demand. And even though the labor market continues to remain very good, the watchwords are out there and saying what's it going to look like? And inventory is cleaner, so you don't need to promote as deeply as you had in the past. Look at what's happening with the department stores. They're ordering more cautiously, and why are they ordering cautiously if they don't feel the demand is going to be there. They'd rather sell at full price than markdowns. And your most profitable markdown is your lowest markdown, not your greatest markdown. Toughest job in retail this year is a guy named Sabata Dico at Gucci absolute toughest, toughest job. Dana Telsey on what Gucci's going to do right off that corner of Fifth Avenue and fifty seventh. I think they're going more basic than they've ever been before. Absolutely, they're going away from what the idiocy was for three years. Yeah, the mismatching of the three years is all about matching now and it's about safe. They're going back back to their archives and seeing what can they reinvent and updated proof that we want that. Is there a proof that will sell to the Chinese? I think there's some proof it will sell to the Chinese, But we're not seeing the Chinese travel yet. We need them traveling to really drive demand. And don't forget you're seeing the local Europeans slow down. Also, what do you make of the buy now, Pay Later and we were hearing that it's actually picking up. Do you buy that? Do you think that this is a positive sign for the retail world or is it a negative sign that people are just basically turning to leverage. People are turning towards leverage. When buy Now, Pay Later first came out, it was a huge event. A huge development because it got younger people and frankly the millennials to spend. I think now that it's been around for a few years, if they can't pay on time, they're willing to delay and frankly be able to extend what their payment terms are. Is it changing charge cards? I mean, is buy now, pay later changing the charge card business? Not what we've seen. It didn't take off tremendously. It took off with a certain graphic and those are the millennials single best buke go. I think that it's going to be TJX. I think TJX is going to be the winner for Holiday in twenty twenty four. Dana, thank you for the brief. Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group. Here we have seen far too much of him. He is an expert on turmoil, war and terrorism. Aaron David Miller with a continued brief, Senior Fellow Carnegie Endowment for International Piece. Aaron, just let me just cut to the chase. If we get out to a point of negotiation from where you sit, is there a hamas to negotiate with? Now there is, and the cutteries and the Americans are validating Hamas's effectiveness. The three of you are better analysts than I am, because you've i think, identified the core questions. There's growing daylight. The world is mad at Joe Biden, even though I think frank his own party's mad at him. There's a degree twenty five years at Department of State, I've never seen, never the degree of dissension and vocal opposition to an administration's policy from inside the foreign policy and national security space. On one resignation, but an extraordinary amount of noise. I think the President Frankly handled this pretty effectively. The Israeli Lebanese border is relatively quiet. The fears of escalation into a regional war which could produce plunging financial markets and rising up prices. So far that's been avoided, And you're right to focus on ostages, but I think the deal is very clear. I'd be stunned, frankly, if this humanitarian past collapsed. Hamas is trading hostages for time. They're hoping that the hostage families inside of Israel will continue to pressure the government in order to redeem all of the hostages that have not been The Arabs are angry, and THEWS earliers are going to face probably in the next week. If the ten hostages for a day of quiet, which is the offer on the table, If Amas accepts that doesn't add requests for more Palestinian prisoners, you could get another week out of this. But at some point the Israelis are going to want to resume in their ground campaign, and at that point, I think you're going to see growing awkwardness and uncomfortableness, maybe even tension in the US Israeli relationship. There's daylight between President Biden and some of his own members within his party, within his team that he has surrounding him. But he also reportedly has expressed concern about the collateral damage, about the civilians who have gotten killed, the incredible number, more than people had originally expected. How much is that going to lead to pressure in a new way that Benjamin not to Yahoo, who is not exactly popular at home, we'll have to listen to. I think that's the core question. President persona alone among modern presidents, he considers himself part of the Israeli story and is preternaturally his emotional support for Israel literally is impressed on his DNA. The politics. As you point out, he has to be concerned about rising the rising type opposition the Democratic Party, but the Republicans, who have emerged as the sort of Israel right or wrong party, are also waiting for him to pressure the Israelis so that they can pressure Joe Biden. And finally, there's I think the president's realization that he doesn't have many good answers to the two or three critical questions that the Israelis are facing with. How do you prosecute a ward to eradicate Hamas without an exponential rise in Palestinian desks? How do you surge humanitarian assistance into a war zone? And finally, what do you do about the proverbial day after its weeks and months after? So I think part of the reason he's reluctant to press the Israeli's hard so far is because he doesn't have better answers for them these core questions. Aaron David Miller a student of this, with your books back thirty years, don't go out thirty years for but I'm going to give you five years or ten years forward. Is our relationship with Israel irrevocably changed? A fascinating question. The headline would suggest that generational changes in voter constituency in Congress. The growing divergence between United States and the values proposition that Israel is a liberal democracy more or less seeking the same things that we do, and growing policy differences suggest that, yeah, there is a lot of fraud tension in this relationship. Whether it's a headline or a trend line, that's the key issue. I suspect that the operating system that has kept the US's a Reeli relationship pretty much very close together is going to continue for quite some time. But again, we support Israel because it's an American interest to do so, and because it reflects American values to do so. When those things change in the face of our right wing Israeli government that's pursuing opposite policies both at home and with respect to diplomacy on the Israeli Polish Ennian issue, then I think the US is really relationship will begin to change. That tension is continuing to build. And thank you so fantastic to hear from you, Aaron David Miller. There of the kind of endowment for international pain. Torsten Sluck He's chief economist at Appalled Global Management and writes a piercing short note each morning and here he hearkens back to the skeletons in the closet, the worries that those older have about is this time like well, try nineteen seventy two, Is this time like a nifty to fifty or the point where Polaroid and Xerox were one of the five Magnificent five that we're out there, Doctor Slock joins us this morning, I loved the equal multiples. Now with nineteen seventy two, I believe that ended ugly. Do you take that over to an analog that this will end ugly? Well, we still, of course have to wait and see exactly how AI will be used, and no one really knows how it'll be implemented, and how much productivity we'll get out of it, how much more consumption or welfare overall. But the bottom line really is what we can track is the valuations, And what I did right in the note today is exactly that the valuations and the trajectory is beginning to look quite similar, including the levels we're at with the pe for AI stocks or the Magnificent seven. Now at above fifty on a trailing basis, it does make you wonder a little bit whether this is indeed going to have a different story compared to what we've seen before, or whether this is actually going to be similard some I mentioned Tom Galvin years ago at Donald sim Lufkin Generator was very top line sales specific. Are we going to have the nominal GDP to support the magnificent seven even if they level out, or to bring the breadth up in a good market. Well, the problem is that the SMP four ninety three has basically been flat for the last year. So the conclusion is that so far all the market gains have been driven by this handful of stocks. So that of course also should bring us all to the discussion, Okay, is this sustainable? To what degree? Is this something that is a good representation of the oral index? If you really end up just buying into one simple story, namely AI, which is the reason why a lot of people are focused on the consumer to understand exactly where we are in this spending picture. And I want to go back to what we really began with this idea of are we seeing sustained sales and a sustained strong consumer or are we just seeing these shifts underway regardless of who ends up benefiting the most. But shifts underway. That represents strength in pockets in the overall picture. Yeah, and absolutely, I do think that it's clear that the shifts have been towards services. So that's why goods have generally been slowing down. Another strength point, as you're pointing out, is that we've also seen strengthen online. But if you really back up and look at the data for how is the consumer doing. Well, we just heard your previous guests talk about trading down. If you look at the language rates for all the loans have been going up, the language rates for credit cards have been going up. We're seeing across the board the level of interest rates are beginning to bite harder and harder and harder on consumers. So the conclusion, of course, is that the FED is actually achieving exactly what the textbook would have predicted. Namely, the slowdown might not have been as fast as we all thought just a few quarters ago, but it is still playing out. The slowdown is here and it will continue. We still have the worst ahead of us. It is the case that monetary policy is biting continuously also going forward, what's the distance between goldilocks and a full blown recession. Well, the runway that we are on here for slowing the economy down. From a FED perspective, certainly is that inflation is coming down. The labor market is also gradually coming down, and we got to get a soft landing not only in invasion but also the labor market. But we begin to see that on a plant rate has gone up from three point falls now at three point nine. That's create a lot of discussion about the PSAM rule and to what degree that's an indicator of a recession or not. But the conclusion to your question, Lisa is I do think that we should view this in the broader context of what is it the FIT is trying to do? And the FIT is trying to slow the economy down. That's why they raise interest rates, they raise interust rates because they want us to buy fewer costs fuel wash us fuel refrigerators, let's furniture, let fewer iPhones, and because of that we should over time continue to see that process play out. There is a real tension right now, and I see this under the notes underpinning the notes calling for five thousand or fifty one hundred on the S and P by the end of next year, which is how the federal respond to the slowdown that they wrought that they wanted to see. Will they cut rates aggressively just simply because they're tightening the screws at a faster pace as growth slows. Do you buy that they will do that even if it keeps perhaps the economy flow and prolongs this period of disinflation. This is a really important discussion in teams. In M language, we are looking at the tailor rule. How much weight do they put on inflation? How much weight do they put on the labor market. So far, all the weight has almost entirely been on inflation. And the question is next year, once inflation does get closer to two, will they begin to shift their attention over towards the label market? In other words, are the coefficients changing so that we put more weight on the label market. Now that the labor market is beginning to show some signs of weakening, I appreciate that jobless claims are not slowing, but the work week is coming down. If you look at job openings is coming down. A number of indicators are suggesting that label demand is weakening. So I do think that they will begin to shift away from focusing purely on inflation to begin to focus. Also more on the label a slock rule. It's like the tailor. I'm inventing it right now. Focus the slock rule. Look for this. The slock rules is three months moving average and non farm payrolls. What statistic do we need on a three months moving average of non farm payrolls? Where we make the great tailor to slock shift. See if you look at your latest number for a non found it was one hundred and fifty thousand. If idays one eighty eight two, and if I type Ecoco on Bloomberg, I will see that by second quarter of next year, non found paybrows will on average fall April, May and June be thirty five thousand. So now goes not wondering, thirty five thousand, So that is not wondering. That's the average, So that can have some fluctuation. I was not wondering. I always say this and p going to trade. If we get thirty five thousand and non fund payrose, what if it even goes below zero? The risk is here that we may have a runway and the lack of effects of Martins hear pology essentially beginning to be a big a trag on growth. Adobe just out Amy, Thank you so much for this. This is Bramo spending this weekend. Adobe a twelve billion to twelve point four billion Cyber Monday spend last year was eleven point three billion. But to your distinction, that's cyber that's just we're parsing out how all of us are glued to Amazon and it's cyber Monday today, let alone all the other spending that we've seen over this period of time. Really, I mean, honestly, the distortions have been incredibly difficult to really pick up on, which is the reason why I'm listening to what you're saying toward Sten, this idea of the labor market weakening and the FED maybe responding to that, and I'm thinking about, well, people still have money to spend, Their real wages are actually going up, and oh yeah, this is a job full recession that people are accepting. This is what they say, right, that people are hoarding labor, this is a new world. Do you push back against that? Well, there is in your weekend reading from the Fed the working papers that write about this. There is some debate between the Boston Fed, the San Francisco Fed, the New York Fed, has also written about this. The Board of Prominence has also written about this. The key issue still is it's very clear that we are ultimately running out of savings, excess savings in the household sex. So the question is some people view that has already happened, other view that's about now, other view that may only happen in the next few quarters. But the trend is very clear. The fit is getting what they want. They want a slowdown, and that's why you will also madly get excess savings running out. And let's not forget student dont payment started on the first of Octoba. That's why retail sales for Octoba was readtivy week. If we put all these things together, I still think that the slowdown continues. Deutsche Bank put out a forecast for one hundred and seventy five basis points of FED rate cuts next year. Is that feasible with the recipe that you just put out there. Well, that does require, of course quite a hot slowdown in the economy. That certainly requires a recession and a hot landing. The question is that's not what the contentious is expecting at the moment. But it's clear that if we do get a shop all slow down, and that is also what the contentious is expecting. It's just above ceral DP is expecting it below zero. Both scenarios make sense on their own, but the conclusion still is we still have more downside risk from where we are at the moment. I got to go back to your day job a couple of years ago before you got this easy slog with Apollo, and that was a Deutsche Bank Rischie Senak, the Prime Minister told our Francine Lacroix adamantly he is not prescribing austerity. You and folk arts Landau live this at Deutsche Bank, of the continent of Europe and of the United Kingdom. Is there a risk they slip into an incorrect austere policy. Well, the problem is that both the UK and EU have some same list of problems at the US broadly speaking, and then have some addition. We stimulus. We did a lock in New world stimulus. They're stuck in the old world. Isn't that simple? Well, in some sense, fiscal policy is certainly very different. In the US. It was much more aggressive than what it was in the UK and Europe, and in that sense, all the rules that in particular the growth constability plaque in Europe but also in the UK have certainly played a very critical role in why fiscal policy has been very different in the UK relative to the US. The fiscal policy will be more expensive than perhaps some people would say given where rates are. That's what we saw from Germany and the recent prognostications over there. Do you think auctions matter? I do think auctions matter a lot. And as you know, as you just talked about two year, three year, a five years and seven year this week is very important. And if you go also and look at the auction sizes over the last several months, they have gone up and as they continue to go up. The risk really here is that short rates may eventually come down, but we may have a steepener because long rates may potentially not come down as much because now we are dealing with this supply issue that potentially to put up what pressure and limit how much of a time we can get in loong rates. Let's revisit a banner from two hours ago. Outnumbered again, Pharaoh gone slock here. Auctions matter two, No one cares one. I think we were at two before. Now I think we're at three. Yeah, you know, it's just so it's like three to one is how we're going to take that matter. It depends if you care. I care auction a few weeks ago with a matter quite alone, Yes, exactly. Thank you doctor, Please of the tursen go away at least till next week by Steve Schwartzman of course Blackstone. Steve, thank you. You were just on stage with the Prime Ministeryunak. How much are you putting in the UK? What are you most excited about when it comes to the UK growth. Well, we've been putting a lot of money into the UK. First of all, we're doing our headquarters building here, which is very significant size building. It will be the largest built in the Mayfair area in the last several decades. We bought two companies in the last two weeks in the United States in the UK, and you know we have a total of seventy billion pounds that's close to ninety billion dollars of investments in the UK with thirty seven thousand people working in these companies in real estate. See what stands out as the biggest strength actually for the UK. So there are many questions. There was an autumn statement we're not sure how they're going to fund some of the tax cuts if they continue down the road, and we don't know if the Conservatives are in power in twelve months. Well, the big advantages of the UK are the English language, the rule of law. They have a terrific university system, they have a great life science areas. They're the number one tourist area in Europe, which actually I found surprising, and so they have a lot of pockets of strength. They've been through a complex time politically, but if you look longer term, the rule of law in the UK is very strong. Their regulatory posture has been quite consistent over time. But we forget that these are good things and not all places in the world have them, and so I think I'm not an expert on the UK, you know, sort of laws in the sense of what they're doing politically. I think their autumn statement on balance, which was stimulative, is and necessary thing for their economy. And they have a much more open approach to immigration at the top levels of education, which is good for helping to power an economy. So I think there's some interesting things going on here. Steve, what can you tell us about private market valuations at Pe firms? So in general. Do you see LPs actually demanding more information on marks and more reporting requirements and evaluation. Is that something that's shifting. I don't see a big set of enormous concerns on that. What always happens at this stage and the cycle, you know, when you go to very high interest rates and the world sort of starts slowing down, is that deals slow down. So for l P is their biggest concern is they're not getting capital flows back that they normally were depending on. Just people aren't selling assets. These types of cycles always end and things returns to normal. It's quite interesting that, you know, we just did two deals in the UK in the last two weeks, one in the affordable in what they call social housing area, one in computer software. Both are million billion dollar, two billion dollar type deals. We're doing a number of things in the US now, some of which have been announced, some of which haven't. We just were involved with a situation in Norway that's twelve billion dollars. So the deal business is not totally in mothballs, and these things start again, and I think we're more on that side of the cycle. Although it has been you know, somewhat dreary for a year in terms, for example of real estate, I think you're raising an opportunity to stake funds ten billion. How's that going, Well, we're raising money for a European fund. Actually, we're always raising money for a lot of funds for ran scene, and you know, we're gone through a big fund raising cycle. So we have over two hundred billion dollars. It's one of the biggest pools of uninvested capital in the world and that will be deployed in due course. Interestingly, in real estate, which you just asked about, we're seeing a good deal of volume of buying things in Europe because European real estate is under pressure in large parts because interest rates were so low here for so long. Sometimes in countries they were negative, so the barring costs to own real estate were next to nothing, and now it's closer to six percent. So if you have to carry a whole portfolio that used to cost you next to nothing at six percent, they need to sell things, you know, it's necessary to just hold their other properties. And so we're seeing some very very good buys in that kind of environment because unlike most people, we have enormous capital and can buy the types of real estate that we like, whether they're data centers, whether they're warehouses, whether they're student housing, where those sectors have done very well. See what can you tell us about great? So, have you seen any redemptions in that? How's that going? It breaks greats? How do you say b r e it t you say b reat Yeah, Well, those those redemptions have gone down. You know, they're I think forty or something like that of what they were a year ago. And so that that pool of capital is actually doing quite well compared to almost all of the real estate, and so you know, we look forward to that sort of ultimately going back to a very normal kind of world. Overall. Does UK politics seem benign compared to the US, but also what we saw in the Netherlands, well, you know, commenting on politics of other countries, let alone our own, which has a sense of drama and you know sort of incredulity is outside of my remit fair Steve Schwartz with a thank you so much. As always, Steve also has to get to another meeting right here, because people are coming and going in all the corridors of course of Hampton Court Palace. John subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday, starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is BloombergSee 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Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says confidence across all sectors in the equity market remains fragile. Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley Chief Cross Asset Strategist, says that fiscal support at the federal and state levels is reducing the odds of a recession. Elliot Ackerman, Former White House Fellow, US Marine Corps Veteran & Co-Author of 2034: A Novel of the Next World War, says the urban warfare environment in Gaza poses major challenges to both sides. Terry Haines, Pangaea Policy founder, expects Congress to pass spending bills on Ukraine, Israel, and the Southern border before the end of the year. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO Economist, North America, says the Fed may opt for future rate hikes.  Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. 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Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Lisa Abramoids along with Tom Keane and Jonathan Ferrow, joining us each day for insight from the best in economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Lori Kelvacina joining head of US Equity Strategy to RBC Capital Markets. Do you agree with that that when you look under the hood, you're seeing massive breakdowns that are reflective of a great deal of pain that people really gloss over. I think that's fair, Lisa. I mean, I think Jana hit the nail on the head when she talked about small caps making a new low. I always tell people about small caps, even if you can't buy them, they tell you a lot about what's going on in the broader market. And I think what's going on is that they're really taking the brunt of the pain as regards to the big increase in tenure yields that we've seen now. Of course, the tech stocks and the cap part of the market are getting knocked around by that as well. But small caps, it doesn't matter to how many charts I can show people suggesting that the balance sheets are not that bad. People simply don't want to hear it. And there's a view that small caps are simply not going to be able to weather the storm that's created by the surge and interest rates, whether it's ten year yields or fed funds. And again, I have so many charts, Lisa that I've been showing people for the last six months saying, hey, small caps have done a good job of shifting towards long term debt, the variable rates down, the weighted average maturities are really not that bad on average about four and a half years. People simply don't want to hear it, Lisa. There's just been a long adage that small caps don't weather higher interest rates very well, and I think that's one of the big reasons why they're getting punished right now. Laurie, can you talk about sector performance within the small caps sectors, because I do think that the sectors are telling an interesting tale in small caps that maybe we're not picking up in large cups. So if you think about you know, think about it. From evaluation perspective, I will say that most sectors in small cap look cheap relative to their low large cap counterparts. But where it gets really interesting is on some of the cyclical sectors. So it's not just small cap financials that are dragging down the rustle two thousand from evaluation perspective. Healthy sectors from a fundamental perspective, like industrials, also look pretty cheap relative to large cap. In the small cap space, consumer discretionary stocks really look kind of left for dead if you look at valuations there. They're deeply, deeply cheap, and they were actually really down around recession type flows last summer. So we're really seeing that pain very very widespread. And given we are in the midst of earning season, is there anything that you're getting out of earnings that maybe is not getting picked up by the markets, considering the markets are so captivatd like what's happening in these macro indicators, So I think people are really misunderstanding what's going on with inflation moderating and what that does to companies. One of the things that we've seen when we compare our numbers versus the street consensus and we actually, you know, we use the Bloomberg data to monitor the street consensus and it does a really good job of articulating how margin expansion is baked into a number of different sectors next year. Well, in my modeling, we actually don't have margin expansion. We kind of have margins going back to twenty twenty two type levels. And one of the reasons why is that we don't give margins a big benefit from sliding inflation. We simply haven't seen a justification to do that in our back test. And when you go through all the transcripts, what we're really noticing is that companies are picking up on this. So the pricing discussion has simply gotten much much swishier, and companies are saying it's going to be a softer pricing environment. Of course, there are a couple that are out there saying they're going to raise prices to infinity and beyond. That's not really the norm here, And what we're really seeing is that companies are acknowledging that they're not going to have an excuse to push these prices through as the cost environment moderates, and so we're not going to necessarily see this big boon to margin expansion simply from cost coming down and prices staying high. And I think that's really what's embedded in a lot of street assumptions for next year. The Laurie I'd like to build on what Gina was referring to about sectors and specifically sector dispersion amongst large cap names, right. I mean it's usually out of ties sturn periods of distressed I'm thinking two thousand and two thousand and eight. Yet sector dispersion has been very high since the pandemic started. I mean, I wonder what you take from that. I mean, certainly we look at some of the interest rate sensitive sectors and how they've underperformed. I mean, is that going to continue? I mean, what's it going to take to kind of get these correlations the right way? So I'll tell you Damian what I feel like I've noticed in the sector data over the last couple of months. And this is looking at the S and P five hundred specifically, But it feels like anytime there's a part of the market that gets a little bit of leadership, it can't sustain it for that long. And I've described it as you know, sort of this sniper that goes out. Anything good we have just gets taken away. And we saw you know, utilities, you know, for example, was having a really nice moment late in the summer and then all of a sudden, just the bottom fell out. We've also seen energy just really kind of lose that luster, and I think the problem is that the market is losing confidence in any one narrative. We really can't get a rotation going because, on the one hand, tech stocks look expensive, they look crowded, they're earning stam it is starting to fade, and hey, interest rates are not usually a good thing for those stocks, so that's starting to take a toll. But anything the market wants to rotate into just can't seem to maintain its footing for all that long from a fundamental perspective either. So it's just been a real struggle, I think, both to find something to generate intercremental excitement in the market and to really allow that rotation to play out. Well, Laurie, I'm so happy you managed you mentioned utilities, because it's been utilities and consumer staples, those traditionally low beated, defensive sectors that have underperformed. I'm wondering, you know, how do you position defensively in today's market, so I think it's very tough. I've actually got an underweight on consumer staples. I'm neutral on utilities. I'm overweight healthcare. That one's had a tough time getting going as well. But to me, it's got the nicest combination of decent valuations. At least until recently, it's had strong earnings revision trends. We've seen the medtech space sort of take a little bit of a hit, and there's been a concern about the weight loss drugs that emerged. I've been trying to tell people that happened at a time when the medtech stocks looked like they were kind of over their skis from earning revision perspective anyway. But if you look in other areas like pharm a biotech, if you look at the providers in services space, you have a really nice kind of ramp up in earning provision trends that feels like it has more room to run. It's not a perfect story by any stretch, but other than the weight loss drugs, it does feel like it has less macro hair than say, utilities and staples. With staples, I will tell you my analyst is starting to feel a little bit better there, just based on the fact that we did have this big sell loss from the weight loss drugs and valuations, I will admit to you are pretty compelling, but I do continue to worry about that sector from just a pricing perspective. I think it's right at the sort of center of the storm I mentioned in terms of not being able to pass through higher prices for much longer. We're seeing those companies actually really talk about how consumers are pushing back. Laurie, What does it tell you that you can have the right idea in terms of the solidness of a corporate balance seat, that you can have the right idea about historical valuation, and that investors just won't bite that it doesn't actually work in trading practice. I think it tells you that, you know, so, whether it's the Middle East, whether it's interest rates, we're in a sentiment driven market at this point in time, and confidence is just very, very fragile. One of the things we've talked about, Lisa a lot this year is how twenty twenty two, twenty twenty three has felt a lot like twenty ten, twenty eleven, and two thousand and two two thousand and three, which were kind of messy extended post crisis normalization periods. I lived through both of those as a strategist, and what we saw was that confidence was just very fragile. There was a constant fear of the next skeleton coming out of the closet and blowing things up, constant fear of tipping into another economic downturn. And I think that's the environment we've been in recently, and so anytime we have issues that come up, there's just not a lot of confidence that either companies or management teams, or the market as a whole, or the economy is going to be able to weather the storm. And that kind of felt like it was easing over the summer, but I feel like we're getting sucked right back into that messy normalization period again where confidence is low. Laurie Kevesy, No of RBC Capital Markets, thank you so much for being with us. Andrew Sheets, global head of credit research at Morgan Stanley, is going to be on tender hooks parsing through all of this. What's most important for you this week? Thanks? So. I think several things are important. I think that confirming that the FED is pausing, and we do think that the FED will not raise rates, and that that can kind of further reinforce the idea that they are done raising rates for this rate cycle, which we think is important for generating and stabilizing bonds. And I think the earning season remains very important. I mean, again, you had this kind of interesting dynamic where so far the underlying reported earnings are pretty decent, but the guidance has been disappointing. The market's reaction to that has generally been to punish misses pretty severely, and we've seen quite a bit of idiosyncratic risk coming out of earnings single stock risk, which also matters. So those are two things that are at the top of our list. You also mentioned at the top of your list that fiscal policy is key across the US, across Europe, across China. Fiscal policy is playing an elevated role in market dynamics this year. Tell us about your views on fiscal policy. So, I do think the fiscal story is really interesting one that affects the US, it affects Europe, it affects China, and so you know, we focus on it in a couple of ways. I mean, my colleague Chetanaya, who's are head of Asia Economics. Yous just some great charts that show just how much fiscal policy in China and the US have diverged, where China's been tightening fiscal policy while the US has been loosening it. We do think that in order to get more bullish on China, we do need to see a larger response, a larger fiscal response than what we've seen so far in the US. I think the real key is how much can the States pick up the slack on the fiscal response side. I think there's a lot of focus, a lot of right focus on you know, we have these large deficits, these unusually large deficits in the US relative the strength of the economy. But if you go below the surface, the state and municipality spending actually holds up pretty well on our four pass over the next twelve months, and that keeps we think, the US economy out of recession and stable, even as federal spending pulls back a bit. But I think that's also really important and really important of how you can get a soft landing even with so much fiscal support from the federal government. In the rearview, mirror, and then how does this fiscal landscape actually impact your corporate credit strategy. I mean, obviously, as an equity investor, we're sort of engaged in this conversation somewhat, and there is a concern in the equity universe that some crowding out may occur as a result of these extraordinary deficits in high yields. Are you seeing any evidence of that? Is the fiscal landscape impacting your corporate strategy at this point? So? I think so far, ironically, you know what's been happening on the fiscal side, as I think been helping credit, and I think that's an absolute and a relative case. And in absolute terms, the fiscal support at both the federal and state level, I think as reducing the odds of a recession, is supported the economy and that's kind of obviously helpful for credit. But I think also in a relatives I think something that's been weighing on treasury markets has been the income. The carry is low because the curves inverted, you get paid more to hold T bills than extending out the curve. And then supply has been very heavy, or expectations of supply are high. And then if you look at the corporate credit market, it's kind of the other way around that the carry on corporate credit is positive, the credit curve is positively sloped, and issuance has been really undershooting expectations as companies, which I think have more flexibility than the federal government to issue or not are looking at these yields and we think are saying this is expensive borrowing. We're going to try not to do it to the extent we can. So you've seen less supply on the corporate market, especially the investment grade market, which we think is a relatively positive technical supporting that market. Andrew, if you go back to call it late June early July, I think you'd be hard pressed to find one fixed income asse class that was down on the year. But now we look at it and it's a completely opposite pit story. Here. The one asset class that stands out to me that is still up on the air as US high Yield. I'm curious to hear your thoughts on that, what's keeping it up and whether or not to consistain its current performance. So that's that's a great point. I mean, I think US Highield has been pretty remarkable in terms of how well it's hold up on a relative and absolute basis anything. I think with hindsight, it's been helped by the fact that yield's been rising, and generally investors, you know, look to high yield is actually a better performing historical sector and in rising yields at somewhat shorter duration. And then you've seen relatively little supply out of that market, especially because it's been so expensive for these more levered issuers, and so that's also helped technicals. But you know, going forward, and I think this has been a really key part you mentioned earlier on the show. You know, you look at what's happening at breadth in the equity market, you look at the underperformance of small caps relative to large caps, and I think that's still actually a relatively troubling signal for the future performance of high yield. I think if the equity market is saying, look, we're we're getting incrementally more cautious on smaller, more levered, more cyclical stocks, as long as that's happening, I think it's much it's hard to see the catalyst to drive further compression or more compression on spreads. So we think spreads decompressed from here. We think that there's already a lot in the price of high yields relative performance, even if we avoid a recession in the US, which remains our base case. Just quickly, Andrew, how concerned are you the Japanese buyers, in particular big corporate debt buyers in the US are going to pull back, especially with some of the adjustments we're expecting from the Bank of Japan. So we think that risk so far is moderate, but we do have to watch it. Again that the return on a hedged basis for a Japanese investor in the US corporate credit is not good, so we do need to watch that. We do need to see still if the flows on an unheedged basis continue. Our base cases that they do, but I think that's something subject to what we might see this week. Andrew Sheets of Morgan Stanley, thank you. There hasn't necessarily been the hardline escalation that some people were expecting with the ground invasion. Joining us to understand all of this is Elliot Akerman, someone with on the ground moots on the ground experience in Fallujah, US Marine Corps veteran, former White House fellow and co author of the twenty thirty four a novel of the Next World War. I hope we are not entering into another World War, Elliott Akerman. I want to get your sense of what you make around the fact that we have not seen a greater escalation and what the chances are for that at this point based on the measures taken. Well, I think what we've seen is very deliberate military movements on the part of the Israelis. I mean, pretty soon, we're going to be a month since the October seventh attacks and we haven't seen them rush headlong into Gaza. And then we've also seen the United States take measures by moving two carrier battle groups and other forces into the Mediterranean to dissuade the Iranians or Hezbolah from coming in from Lebanon and to the north of Israel. So this counter offensive is playing out in a really deliberative manner, and I think that so far we're seeing that that is stopping this war from turning into a regional contagion. Yet it does seem that most of the rhetoric or statements coming out of the region, Elliott, are about the war really continuing or at least get getting started. The ground troops really getting busy now, which would suggest that there's not a lot of endgame in sight. It seems that we're getting going and the assumption is that this is going to take some time to play out. Is there any resolution in your mind in the near term or is this another war that we're going to contend with for an extended period of time and very similar fashion to what's going on in the Ukraine. I think there's a tendency when we look at wars is we focus a lot on the movements of ground troops in the real specific and that that's important, of course, but it's also important to hold in your mind at the same time, you know, the idea that war is politics. It's politics by other means, What are the politic politics of this situation? And this attack on October seventh was, you know, by all accounts, launched as a counter to the Saudis and the Israelis signing a peace deal, a peace deal that would disempower Hamas and put Aroan in a very difficult position in the region, and so by basically forcing an atrocity on the Israelis, Hamas forces an Israeli response that causes that peace deal to collapse. So that's what we're seeing right now. So this kind of poses an obvious question, which is who is the party that actually has the leverage at this point. You know, Israel doesn't have a ton of leverage because they have to respond Hamas is waiting for that response. I would say the people who have the most leverage right now are the Saudis. You know, if the Saudis were to turn around and start renegotiating this peace deal at any point, it takes away all of the leverage that Hamas and Iran have created. And I think we have to as much as where you know, there's a lot of discussion about the fatigue that the world is going to have when we start seeing the Israeli military operating in Gaza and the civilian death toll. I think there's also some fatigue that the Arab world probably has with the Palestinian question, particularly in the context in which Hamas is inflaming tensions and could we see possibly a peace resumed out of the Arab world on this question, Elliott, your former marine five tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan. The one question I have for you is these tunnels underneath Gaza. How do you infiltrate these tunnels? I mean, what does that look like? I mean, I'm just curious, like, is there any precedent for that? Well, I mean there is historical precedents for that, But I can't emphasize enough just how challenging that operating environment is. You know, a major urban center is the worst place that you want to be fighting. The closest analogy I can come up with based off of my experiences in Fallujahs, it's like being in a knife fight in the phone booth. Everything happens at very close quarters and very very quickly, and many of the high tech weapons systems that armies like ours and like the Israelis Army are invested in they become much less effective because of the close quarters natures of the fighting. And these tunnels make it extremely complicated for the Israelis because they have to go in, they have to map out these tunnels, figure out where they are, and you also have hostages that are being held with these tunnels. So at the tactical level, you couldn't have posed a more challenging problem to the Israeli military. I don't believe it's insurmountable, but it's going to make it very, very slow going, and it forces them to act extremely deliberatively, which I think we've seen so far. Well, you said that it's not insurmountable, and I want to really develop that point a little bit because there are a lot of people saying, what does it mean to beat Hamas ken Israel win this war? What does winning look like? From your vantage point? What does winning look like? Again? I think winning at least is the Israelis have defined it is the destruction of Hamas and then some normalization or stasis in security in the region so Israelis can continue to live in all parts of Israel and southern Israel in particular. Now, when it comes to destroying Hamas, you know that is you know it's going to take some work, but that is tactically viable. I think the question is now, what do you do in Gaza? And do you face a protracted insurgency in Gaza? And I think when it comes to this idea of normalizing relations in the region, that's when we start to get into questions of diplomacy. You can Israel and can Arab partners negotiate with whatever the inheritors are of Hamas. Whatever that palaestin and the authority is to create stability in the region. We haven't gotten there yet. But again, you know what I'm seeing is we shouldn't underestimate the fatigue that also exists in the Arab world with this conflict, because it seems that the war was predicated on Hamas blowing up the best chance for peace that it ever existed. You talked about how Saudi Arabia arguably has the most leverage in all of this. We do have a Saudi official coming to Washington, I believe this week Axios was reporting. I'm wondering what the goal is among some of the Arab nations that have the leverage, have the power. I'm thinking, yes, Saudi Arabia, but also maybe to a lesser extent cutter and also the United Arab Emirates. What do they want? I think they want to live in a region that isn't played by this systemic war in Israel between the Israelis and the Palestinians, to allow peace to finally break out in the Middle East, and to live in a region in the world that isn't When it's spoken the Middle East, we don't immediately think conflict war in a place where security isn't assured, that maybe the Middle East can start to look a little bit more like Western Europe. I think that is probably what they want. I think that's what everybody wants. And again, I think we shouldn't underestimate the fatigue that exists on all sides of this conflict. Just twenty seconds. Do you think that their goal is for Israel to survive or not to survive? I think their goal is for Israel to survive, Elliott. I think it's I think it's difficult for them to say that, but yes I do. Elliot Ackerman, thank you so much for taking the time joining us now. Terry Haynes, founder of Pangea Policy, I want to start with Mike Johnson what we heard out of him over the weekend. How surprised were you to hear some of his points that sound very much like a playbook that comes for another time. Well, I wasn't a bit surprised. Acshually, I've been writing for markets for weeks that the strategy that would get pursued is, you know, breaking all these pieces apart instead of have you know, instead of Biden's idea that they should all be rolled up together. I think what markets ought to notice too, though, is what Johnson doesn't say. What Johnson doesn't say is he's four square against Ukraine Aid. Ukraine Aid shouldn't happen. That it won't happen, none of those things. You know. What we've got here. What I was always fearful about, and I think is coming true, is that this is going to become a fight about how all these things get done, these things being Israeli Ukraine aid, border security enhancements, and that's going to take up most of the rest of the year. But I do think they all get done in the end. So they get done. We continue to fund or support these two wars. Where do we cut spending in order to accommodate them, Well, we don't. Bottom line, we don't. You know. The good news and the bad news is really is that on book spending has really been consistent for the last decade plus, off book spending in our commitments, you know, whether it be to housing or to you A variety of other things that are kind of under the under the line continue to balloon. And that's a big problem. Washington has not yet gotten the memo from the markets that that that the markets, for the first time in forty years, are very concerned about rising debt, rising deficit, and rising US fiscal spending. There isn't a politician in Washington other than Biden himself that's ever heard markets be concerned about that. And you know, Biden's not in a position to care or do anything about it because he's beholden to his left wing who think that endless spending it is the right idea. Okay, so we keep spending. What about with China. There's a lot happening with China this week, which is interesting considering so much happening geopolitically around the world, and yet China Taiwan is lingering in the background. Tell us your views on what's happening with China? Is their meaning behind the meetings this week that we should be reading into, well, Gina, as you know very well, the you know, every time the markets here anything good from a US China perspective, and the a one is the prospect that Biden and President Ju Chiming might might meet on the sidelines of the APEC meeting next month. Uh. You know, the markets think this is a good thing, you know, but in reality, what they've been very China has been very blunt about is really through the National Security Law, through kicking a lot of Western accountants out, UH, now through UH providing through a conference this week more evidence of state control in a variety of areas in financial services. UH is a world that you know, as you all talked about in the last hour or so, where China looks increasingly uninvestable, and so I think the UH, you know, they've kind of the cats out of the bag on China, and even markets are starting to figure out that that there's not going to be any kind of long term rapprochmont between the US and China. The best we're going to get is a situation where the where the competitor and the clashers understand each other well enough not to take the next step into a rising yet again geopolitical risk. Terry former Vice President Penance pulled out of the twenty twenty four election this past weekend. You know, Trump leads the polling in some of these early states. I mean, it's still early days, obviously, but I mean I'm curious, do you believe we're past peak Trump? Is there anyone else in the GOP who can even make a run at him. Well, you know, I'll stick to my earlier views that I think we're a little past peakd Trump. What you've got in the early primary states, Damien, is a situation where you know, the polls right now are basically fifty percent or in favor of Trump, which means fifty percenter against him. You probe into the Trump support a little bit more, and you've got another quarter to a half who can be convinced otherwise. And as you point out, it is very early days. We've got, you know, basically two and a half months before the first almost a quarter of a year before the first primary season. So you know, my advice to markets is really twofold one, stay cool on this till after the first of the year when you have some idea of what's going on. Number one, number two. I think what you do see as a continued winnowing down of the competitors. We're already basically down to three. We're down to Hayley, DeSantis and Tim Scott as the leading challengers. Pence understood he wasn't part of that, so he's very honorably bowing out early. But what you're going to get, I think is a consolidation that happens earlier and provides a much more unexpected from markets perspective challenge to Trump than is now thought. Terry Mike Johnson is Speaker of the House, but is he the leading voice for House Republicans? And you know where I'm going with this, right, I mean, you've got Scalise emor Jordan. I mean, what happens to these to these gentlemen after their unsuccessful runs for Speaker of the House. You know, people people tend to view position new people in positions based on the people that were already there, So Mark, they're very used to that this strong speaker model, this kind of super majority leader position, whether it be Nancy Pelosi or McCarthy or you know, John Bayne or somebody else. In reality, what you've got with Johnson as a situation where the party regulars Scalise Emmer Jordan are more empowered now than they were before and they're really going to be leading the party much more than Johnson. That said, you know, one of the things Johnson also said on the Sunday shows, which bears underscoring, is that you know, they're looking much more seriously at extending government funding beyond November seventeenth than they would have been, say a month ago. So you know, so I have accordingly put my own odds back down to about forty percent. But I think the political situation's volt and I'll be ready to put him back up again, you know, if and when the Republicans fall apart, just quickly. Here we're talking about the Republican side and the nominees for the election. Why was Gavin Newsom in China ostensibly to talk about economic ties and all the rest. Really what he's doing is trying to do what he can to burnish his foreign policy chops. You know, there's a lot of sharks in the water now, and wouldn't surprise me if Biden's feeling like a ramorra a little bit and should they falter. And you saw evidence of that even with Vice President Harris' sixty minutes interview last night. But you know, Newsom wants to put him out out there as the alternative, himself out there was the alternative. Republicans would love that, because Newsom wouldn't get a vote outside the solidly blue states. Terry Haynes and PANGEA Policy, thank you so much. Joining us now is Tiffany Wilding, economist and managing director at PIMCO. So glad to have you on the show. We were talking earlier and Gina made this great point about how she thinks the pain trade is actually to the upside in equity markets. Things go better than expected, earning's coming stronger than expected. Is it the same with economic projections that the economy, if it reaccelerates, that's almost the pain trade right now, given more people are situated. Yeah, I mean, I think some of that has been quote priced into the economics, communities forecasts. I mean, you saw many economists that were penciling in a recession earlier in the year, you know, and obviously if you look at the consensus numbers, those have come up. I mean, certainly that can continue. And it's definitely been a risk that we've been highlighting as well, you know, in particular the consumer. You know, it's certainly possible the consumer remains strong. The consumer did basically re accelerate their you know, their consumption and their purchases into the back half of this year. You know, it's a question of how interest rate sensitive the consumer is, and it's proving to be not that interest rate sensitive right now, which raises a question also, Tiffany, what's the connection between growth and inflation. Is there a sense that if growth accelerates, you can still see the disinflation continue that we've seen so far this year. Yeah, I mean, so this has been a point that we've been trying to really hammer home, which is that it really, you know, there'll be some continued disinflation as a result of you know, the fact that you're still getting you know, the product market side of the economy, so the side of the economy that was impacted by some of these supply chain snags. You're still getting some normalization there, but labor markets are incredibly tight, and you are still seeing a pretty decent amount of nominal income growth as a result of that labor market improvement. And so, you know, we think you probably still need some labor market softening in order to just get inflation, you know, kind of more truly back down to target. Yeah. So if you have an economy that's reaccelerating in a labor market that's strong, you know you should this services X shelter kinds of metrics that the FED is looking at, those probably will start to re accelerate. Tiffany, what is the most important economic indicator you're watching this week. You know, obviously the jobs number, you know, is going to be incredibly important. You know. Now there's going to be some noise around that because there is some strike activity. But I think you know, everybody's trying to figure out what the underlying trend in the labor market is. You know, and as I mentioned, you know, if growth, so the FED or Reserve needs to target growth that's under potential. So that call it like around one percent is what the FED is opening to target in order to cool the labor market off. You know, growth right now looks like it's running at two and a half three, so it is well above that, which suggests the labor market is going to remain strong, you know, so well, you know, obviously we'll be looking at that. The wage number within the labor market report is obviously going to be very important as well. But overall, you know, we've said, if the data flow continues to be as strong as it was in September, you know, certainly the FED is probably going to want to keep its options open to hike more. We think the SEP could maybe even take out cuts for twenty twenty four just to try to keep those financial conditions tight. And where do you think this? What is the impact on financial prices? Then, so you've got the Fed likely to pause, You've got data still coming in reasonably strong. What are financial markets to do with this kind of data? Well, you know, I think, you know, obviously, kind of good news should be bad news in some sense, right, because the Federal Reserve is trying to cool off the economy, and ultimately the way they do that is through tighter financial conditions, and whether that's you know, higher interest rates or you know, a decline in equities, you know, maybe wider credit spreads, all of those things. You know, that's how you cool off the economy. And so if the economy remains strong, you know, then that's what we need more pricing like that in order to cool things off. Tiffany, there's been a lot of focus on the quarterly refinancing announcement. You know, my question for you is a simple one. Is the supply story in US treasuries already reflected in the price? Yeah? I mean I think this is a key question, you know. Now, I think it's actually broader than the refunding. I mean, clearly Treasury has had a big refunding need. You know, they've been trying to increase coupons, you know, as a result of the fact that you know, they have this bigger need and they were really ramping up bills. Now they're moving into coupons. I think the bigger issue here is that good growth, better growth expectations, is actually increasing people's expectations for supply. And that's that's not that's counterintuitive relative to usual experience because usually you have higher tax revenues and you know that reduces financing need. But right now with you have central banks that can just continue to you know, reduce their balance sheet for longer, or you know, the Bank of Japan, which you know really pulls away from you know, from buying jgbs. That results in more expectations for supply globally, and that's increasing term premium. Yeah, you know, so I think that is going to continue with the refunding. I mean, Tiffany or you're right in the wheelhouse here talking about the crowding out effect from Japan to the US, I mean foreign buying of treasuries. Where does the demand come from the Feds no longer backstopping things, you know, talk to about demand for US treasuries on a forward basis, you know, who is that marginal buyer, who's that marginal risk taker? Yeah, I mean that's that's what everybody's trying to figure out, right And the problem, I think, well, one of the issues is is that, you know, you kind of go back to twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen, where you had a good amount of bond yields that were negative and really the US was the only game in town. Well, now with interest rates just across the world much higher, it's possible to you know, to get you know, positive yielding assets outside of the United States right now. You know, some diversification of portfolios as a result of that is probably reasonable, you know. So I think it is the question of who's the marginal buyer, But not only who's the marginal buyer, but what price are they willing to pay and what yield do they need to get in order to come back into the bond market. Tiffany Wilding of PIMCO, thank you so much for being with us. Subscribe the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Blueberk dot com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Lisa Abramowitz, and this is BloombergSee 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 Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says she saw concern, not fear, in markets as the US faced a potential government shutdown. Jordan Rochester, Nomura G-10 FX Strategist, says EUR-USD towards parity is possible. Mike Darda, Roth MKM Chief Economist & Macro Strategist, says yield trades can be unwound over the course of the year if we see softer data. Rep. French Hill (R) Arkansas, discusses congress averting a US government shutdown. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says the US is staring down the barrel of a sluggish economy. Nela Richardson, ADP Chief Economist, says the Fed's job is more complicated now. Kevin Book, Clearview Energy Partners Co-Founder, says there is still room to run for oil. Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, says a Fed cut could cause a weaker dollar and potentially ease some China pressures. David Lebovitz, JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist, expects airlines to continue to raise prices to defend their margins. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this edition of Wall Street Week, Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Head of US Equity Strategy and Scott Chronert, Citi US Equity Strategist tell us about the paradigm shift we can expect to see in a higher-rates environment. Afsaneh Beschloss, RockCreek Founder & CEO says new entrants to BRICS don't have much in common with one other, and Eric Cantor, Moelis & Company Vice Chairman tells us how higher interest rates affect dealmaking.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Guy and Danny discuss investors not paying enough attention to Japan (4:00), treasuries trading like biotech stocks (11:30), Upstart (15:30), Icahn Enterprises (19:30), and the shift from passive to active investing (24:30). Later, they are joined by Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC, to discuss the market reaction to inflation data (38:00), 2023 earnings estimates (41:00), interest rates (45:00), growth vs. value (47:30), energy (49:00), China/geopolitical risks (51:00), small caps (57:00), the yield curve (1:02:00), the AI craze (1:03:00) About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money's Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They're offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we're here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. Check out our show notes here Learn more about Ro body: ro.co/tape See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod. We're on social: Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Young @LizYoungStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page

Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says the markets need to stop, pause and have a moment of digestion. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist & Chief Investment Officer and Morgan Stanley Global Investment Committee Chair, says be 'very selective' with stocks. Daniel Ives, Wedbush Senior Equity Analyst, discusses why he's bullish on Apple despite weak earnings. Michelle Meyer, Mastercard Economics Institute Chief Economist for North America, says the consumer and economy are shifting. Sri Natarajan, Bloomberg News, discusses Goldman Sachs commodities research chief Jeff Currie set to leave the bank. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says if we do have a recession, the market will be able to focus on the bigger picture and it may not be as damaging as some assume. Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chief Economist & Head of Global Economic Research, says we'll need a recession in order to get inflation to 3% or below. Alifia Doriwala, RockCreek Group Managing Director, says diversification is key, "especially in this type of uncertain environment." Gennadiy Goldberg, TD Securities Head of US Rates Strategy, sees the first Fed cut in March of 2024.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stocks saw a major rally in early trading following weaker-than-expected inflation data and key retail earnings. But reports of Russian missiles hitting Poland put a pause on the rally. Fred Kempe from The Atlantic Council discusses the geopolitical implications of the reports. Lori Calvasina from RBC shares her outlook for the market in this uncertain environment. Chipotle's CEO gives his read on food inflation, along with thoughts on advertising on Twitter after Musk's takeover. Plus, the CEO of Planet Fitness talks growth, and the latest on FTX, Tesla, and the pop for Chinese tech stocks.

On this episode of MKT Call Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Carter Worth discuss: Mike Wilson's call for a bear market rally Will the S&P 500 take out the 200-day moving average? Lori Calvasina pounding the table on small caps Big earnings this week from Netflix, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, Schlumberger, Snap ---- Watch MKT Call at 1pm M-TH on YouTube Sign up for our emails ---- MKT Call is brought to you by our presenting sponsors FactSet and OpenExchange. ---- Follow us on Twitter @MKTCall Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow @CarterBWorth on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Like us on Facebook  @RiskReversal Watch all of our videos on YouTube

Guy, Dan and Danny discuss Thursday's massive one-day turnaround in the markets (4:05), growing strength in the energy sector (8:00), the wild moves in interest rates and if the latest hot inflation data will force a recalibration by the Fed (12:00), why no one wants the Elon Musk-Twitter deal to happen except Twitter shareholders (21:50), and Danny's best NFL bets for the weekend (24:15).   Then, Guy and Danny talk with Lori Calvasina, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, about why she thinks the market will get back on track late next year (32:16), the challenge of building forecasts and models amid inflation and high interest rates (35:00), the value of embracing contrarian thoughts (44:34), if there are significant cracks yet in the credit markets (48:01), and why she thinks it's become a stock picker's market (50:18). And later, CNBC's Julia Boorstin joins Guy and Dan on what inspired her to write her new book “When Women Lead” (54:00), the value of investing in female founders and female-led startups (61:00), mentoring the next generation of female leaders (1:07:40), and what characteristics help female-led companies succeed (1:11:20). Check out our show notes and transcript here ---- See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape.  ---- Shoot us an email at OnTheTape@riskreversal.com with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod. We're on social: Follow Dan Nathan @RiskReversal on Twitter Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page