Podcasts about shanghai composite index

China's new financial stimulus package reflects policymakers' strong resolve to stabilize the domestic economy and financial markets amid ongoing tariff-related pressures, paving the way for greater monetary and fiscal actions to shore up domestic demand and confidence, economists and analysts said.经济学家和分析人士指出，中国新推出的一揽子经济刺激计划彰显了决策层在关税压力持续的背景下稳定国内经济与金融市场的坚定决心，这为后续出台更多货币和财政政策举措，提振内需、巩固市场信心铺平了道路。The package, unveiled on Wednesday, includes interest rate cuts, liquidity injection and targeted funding for consumption and technological innovation, and is aimed at strengthening credit expansion, anchoring investor expectations and boosting capital market resilience.周三推出的一揽子政策包含降息、流动性注入及针对消费与科技创新的定向资金支持，旨在强化信贷扩张力度、稳定投资者预期并提升资本市场抗风险能力。With the measures indicating that policymakers are taking a proactive stance to brace for worst-case scenarios, additional tools are likely to be in the pipeline, including bolder cuts to interest rates, stepped-up fiscal support for consumption and trade-affected businesses, and the potential launch of a formal stock market stabilization fund.这些措施表明，决策层正以积极主动的姿态未雨绸缪、防范最坏情况，后续可能出台更多政策工具组合，包括更大幅度的降息、针对消费和受贸易冲击行业加大财政支持力度，以及可能正式推出股市平准基金。The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, announced on Wednesday that it will cut the seven-day reverse repos—a key policy benchmark for interest rates—by 10 basis points to 1.4 percent from 1.5 percent, effective on Thursday.中国人民银行周三宣布，自周四起将作为关键政策利率指标的7天期逆回购操作利率下调10个基点，由1.5%降至1.4%。Pan Gongsheng, governor of the PBOC, said the reserve requirement ratio, or RRR—the proportion of deposits that banks must keep as reserves—will be reduced by 0.5 percentage point, unleashing liquidity of around 1 trillion yuan ($138.5 billion). The cut will take effect on May 15.中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示，自5月15日起存款准备金率（RRR）——即商业银行需持有的存款准备金比例，将下调0.5个百分点，此次降准预计释放长期流动性约1万亿元人民币（约合1385亿美元）。Speaking at a news conference, Pan announced a raft of targeted monetary support, including lowering the RRR for auto financing and financial leasing companies to zero from 5 percent and reducing interest rates by 25 basis points on housing provident fund mortgages and various structural monetary instruments.潘功胜在新闻发布会上宣布了一系列定向货币政策支持措施，包括将汽车金融公司和金融租赁公司的法定存款准备金率从5%全面下调至零，并将住房公积金贷款及各类结构性货币政策工具利率统一下调25个基点。The central bank will launch two new tools to provide funding for services consumption and eldercare, as well as tech innovation bond investments, Pan added.潘功胜补充道，中国人民银行将创设两项新工具，分别为服务消费与养老产业、以及科技创新债券投资领域提供专项融资支持。David Chao, global market strategist for the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) at investment management company Invesco, said, "The rate cuts are likely to reduce borrowing costs in the real economy and give credit growth the boost it needs."景顺投资管理公司亚太区（除日本外）全球市场策略师赵大卫（David Chao）表示：“此次降息有望降低实体经济融资成本，为信贷增长注入必要动能。”"The combined package of measures—similar to those in September—demonstrates that policymakers remain committed to prioritizing (economic) growth," Chao said.“与去年9月类似的一揽子政策表明，决策层仍致力于将经济稳增长置于优先位置。”赵大卫指出。With the policies coming before the planned China-US trade talks later this week, Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Golden Credit Rating International, said the PBOC is likely to continue with interest rate cuts and RRR reductions in the second half, as negotiations may go through a complex process while inflation remains subdued at home.随着政策即将出台，中美两国计划于本周晚些时候进行贸易谈判，东方金诚国际首席宏观分析师王青表示，由于谈判进程可能面临波折且国内通胀持续低迷，中国人民银行很可能在下半年继续降息和下调存款准备金率。China's A-share market reacted positively to the measures, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.8 percent to close at 3,342.67 points on Wednesday.中国A股市场对此作出积极反应，周三上证综合指数上涨0.8%，收报3,342.67点。Pan added that the central bank will provide sufficient funding support to Central Huijin Investment, an arm of China's sovereign wealth fund that functions as a quasi-stock market stabilization fund, in increasing share holdings when necessary.潘功胜补充称，央行将为中央汇金投资有限公司（中国主权财富基金旗下机构，承担准股市平准基金职能）提供充足的资金支持，以便其必要时进一步增持股票。Zhang Jun, chief economist at China Galaxy Securities, said it is also necessary for China to launch a formal stock market stabilization fund via legislative procedures, especially amid rising global financial market volatility, to further anchor market expectations.银河证券首席经济学家张军表示，在全球金融市场波动加剧的背景下，中国还需通过立法程序正式设立股市平准基金，以进一步稳定市场预期。Zhang added that as the RRR for some institutions will be cut to zero—breaking through the previously assumed implicit floor of 5 percent—there is now greater room for reducing the RRR of commercial banks, with a 50-basis-point cut likely in the third quarter to coordinate with incremental fiscal stimulus.张军进一步指出，由于部分机构存款准备金率将降至零（突破了此前市场普遍认为的5%隐性下限），商业银行存款准备金率下调空间进一步扩大，第三季度可能再降准50个基点，与增量财政刺激政策形成协同效应。Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura, said China needs to take bolder steps—especially on the fiscal front—to clean up debt in the property sector and support consumption by reforming the pension system.野村证券中国首席经济学家陆挺表示，中国需采取更大胆举措——尤其是在财政政策方面——通过改革养老金制度来化解房地产行业债务问题并提振消费。Li Yunze, head of the National Financial Regulatory Administration, said that China will accelerate the rollout of financing mechanisms aligned with its new development model of real estate.国家金融监督管理总局局长李云泽表示，中国将加快推出与房地产发展新模式相匹配的融资机制。stimulus package一揽子刺激计划; 经济刺激政策the reserve requirement ratio (RRR)存款准备金率reverse repos反向回购; 逆回购benchmark/ˈbentʃmɑ:k/n. 基准PBOC中国人民银行stock market stabilization fund股市平准基金

With rising strategic importance in terms of improving expectations and boosting confidence, China's capital market now provides opportunities for both Chinese and foreign investors as global economic growth stagnates due to Sino-US trade frictions, experts said.专家表示，在中美贸易摩擦导致全球经济增长停滞的背景下，中国资本市场在改善预期、提振信心方面的战略意义日益凸显，为中外投资者提供了投资机会。Their comments followed messages delivered during a State Council executive meeting on Friday, which included making continuous efforts to stabilize the stock market and advance the sound and stable development of the property sector. Once related measures are introduced, they should affect targeted companies and individuals directly. The implementation efficiency of the measures should be improved and their effect ensured, according to the meeting.此前，国务院常务会议于上周五发布消息，强调要持续稳定股市，促进房地产市场健康稳定发展。会议指出，相关措施一旦出台，要直接惠及相关企业和个人。会议强调，要提高措施的执行效率，确保其效果。The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.45 percent on Monday while the Shenzhen Component Index closed up 1.27 percent. The tech-heavy ChiNext in Shenzhen jumped 1.59 percent.周一，上证综指上涨0.45%，深证成指上涨1.27%，以科技股为主的深圳创业板上涨1.59%。The A-share market is crucial for lifting market confidence during trade tensions. Investors should be confident in China's dedication to safeguarding the stability of its capital markets, said Qiu Xiang, chief A-share market strategist at CITIC Securities.中信证券首席A股策略师裘翔表示，A股市场对于在贸易摩擦期间提振市场信心至关重要。投资者应该对中国维护资本市场稳定的决心充满信心。Economic resilience is crucial during the ongoing stalemate. China has more choices and room for more policies, helping it to last longer during the tensions. But the huge amount of government debt that will mature or need refinancing before July will serve as the first turning point for US tariff policies, said Qiu.在持续的僵局中，经济韧性至关重要。中国拥有更多选择和政策空间，有助于其在紧张局势中维持更长时间。但裘翔表示，7月前即将到期或需要再融资的巨额国债将成为美国关税政策的第一个转折点。Against such a backdrop, self-reliant technology companies, sectors benefiting from Europe's increasing capital expenditure, consumer staple providers and companies generating stable dividends are worth looking at in the A-share market, he added.在这样的背景下，他建议A股市场关注自主科技企业、受益于欧洲资本支出增加的行业、消费必需品提供商，以及能够提供稳定分红的公司。Market turmoil and volatility continued in overseas markets last week, indicating continued external pressure. But the Chinese market is stable, thanks to its recovering economic fundamentals and quick responses to recent uncertainties, said Zhang Qiyao, chief strategy analyst at Industrial Securities.上周，海外市场动荡和波动持续，表明外部压力仍在。但中国市场保持稳定，得益于经济基本面持续恢复，以及对近期不确定性作出的迅速反应，兴业证券首席策略分析师张启尧指出。Meanwhile, China's dual circulation development pattern and the country's strategic focus will help to anchor market stability, said Zhang.同时，张启尧表示，中国的双循环发展格局和国家战略重点将有助于巩固市场稳定。Experts from Huaxi Securities wrote in a recent report that the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong stock markets may serve as havens for foreign investors, while other markets are undergoing more drastic fluctuations in the short term and global economic growth faces more uncertainties.华西证券专家在近期报告中指出，在其他市场短期内出现更剧烈波动、全球经济增长面临更多不确定性的背景下，中国内地和香港股市或将成为海外投资者的避风港。The Chinese government has been dedicated to advancing supply side reform and deeper restructuring. Combined with its continued efforts in expanding domestic demand, Chinese firms are provided with a better environment, which means new investment opportunities, Huaxi said.华西证券表示，中国政府致力于推进供给侧结构性改革，深化结构调整，加之持续扩大内需，为中国企业提供了更有利的环境，意味着新的投资机会。In addition, Chinese equity assets now enjoy more valuation advantages compared to their foreign peers. The former's investment value over the mid to long term is especially noticeable. The market should not underestimate policymakers' resolution to stabilize market performance and investor expectations, they added.此外，与境外同类资产相比，中国股票资产目前享有更大的估值优势，其中长期投资价值尤为突出。他们补充道，市场不应低估政策制定者稳定市场表现和投资者预期的决心。During a forum on Sunday, Liu Yuhui, a council member of the China Chief Economist Forum, said that now is a good time to invest in the A-share market, as it is projected to enjoy longer-term prosperity. Investors are especially advised to look for opportunities in core China assets, whose investment value has been manifested during the China-US trade frictions, he said.在周日举行的论坛上，中国首席经济学家论坛理事刘煜辉表示，目前是投资A股市场的好时机，预计A股将迎来长期繁荣。他建议投资者重点关注“核心中国资产”，在中美贸易摩擦中其投资价值已显现。Fu Si, China portfolio strategist at Goldman Sachs, said that global actively managed funds and overseas hedge funds have increased their exposure to A shares since the beginning of the year, mainly driven by the rapid development of Chinese artificial intelligence technology. But their current exposure is still lower than historic levels, while selling room is limited. Therefore, global capital will flow back to the A-share market in the mid to long term, Fu said.高盛中国股票策略分析师付思表示，自年初以来，全球主动管理型基金和海外对冲基金已增加了对A股的配置，主要受到中国人工智能技术快速发展的推动。但目前其配置仍低于历史水平，进一步减仓的空间有限，因此预计全球资本将在中长期回流A股市场。As of the end of March, qualified foreign institutional investors have increased their holdings in A shares—both in terms of volume and market value—on a quarterly basis, according to market tracker Wind Info. QFII held at least 500 million yuan ($68.6 million) worth of shares in Zijin Mining, Centre Testing International Group and China XD Group each, with the latter—a transmission and distribution equipment maker—seeing the most rapid increase of QFII holdings in the past three months.据万得资讯的数据，截至3月底，合格境外机构投资者（QFII）在A股的持股数量和市值均环比上升。QFII在紫金矿业、华测检测和中国西电等公司的持股市值均超过5亿元人民币（约合6860万美元）。其中，作为输配电设备制造商的中国西电，是近三个月QFII持仓增长最快的企业。resilience/rɪˈzɪliəns/n.韧性；应变能力volatility/ˌvɒləˈtɪləti/n.波动性；不稳定性implementation/ˌɪmplɪmenˈteɪʃn/n.执行turmoil/ˈtɜːmɔɪl/n.混乱；骚动

Pedestrians walk past a board showing the numbers of the Nikkei Stock Average on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Japan on Monday. Tokyo stocks plunged on Monday, with the benchmark Nikkei index suffering its third-largest point drop on record, as global sell-offs continued amid intensifying fears of an all-out trade war and a global economic recession triggered by the United States' tariff hikes.周一，在日本东京证券交易所，行人从显示日经平均指数的电子屏前走过。由于对全面贸易战和由美国加征关税引发的全球经济衰退的担忧不断加剧，全球市场持续抛售，东京股市周一大幅下跌，基准日经指数录得史上第三大点数跌幅。While the Chinese stock market was not immune from Monday's global stock market meltdown after the United States announced wide-ranging tariffs, the A-share market will likely gain continued favor from investors, as China has plenty of policy room in the midterm to long run and its economy is resilient enough to offset the impact of the sweeping tariffs, said experts.专家表示，尽管中国股市未能免受周一美国宣布大范围关税后全球股市崩盘的影响，A股市场仍有望继续受到投资者青睐，因为从中长期看，中国政策空间充足，且经济韧性足以抵御广泛关税带来的冲击。Although the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index were down by 7.34 percent and 9.66 percent respectively on Monday, action was taken immediately. Central Huijin Investment, an arm of China's sovereign wealth fund, said during the late trading hours on Monday that it had increased its holdings in exchange-traded funds.尽管基准指数上证综指和深证成指周一分别下跌7.34%和9.66%，但相关应对举措也已迅速出台。中国主权财富基金下属的中央汇金投资公司周一晚间交易时段表示，它已增持交易所交易基金。Fully acknowledging the A-share market's current investment value, Central Huijin said it would increase its exposure and firmly safeguard the stable operation of the capital market.中央汇金充分认识到A股市场当前的投资价值，表示将加大投资力度，坚决维护资本市场的稳定运行。A sell-off swept the global market after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Wednesday to impose a 10 percent baseline tariff on all imports to the United States. The policy includes tariffs as high as 34 percent on imports from China and 20 percent from the European Union.美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周三签署行政令，对所有进口到美国的产品征收10%的基准关税。该政策包括对从中国进口的产品征收高达34%的关税，对从欧盟进口的产品征收高达20%的关税。该措施引发全球市场大规模抛售潮。Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 7.83 percent lower on Monday, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index slumped 13.22 percent. The pan-European STOXX 600 was 6 percent lower shortly after the opening bell, and Germany's DAX index was more than 9.5 percent lower during early deals.日本日经225指数周一收盘下跌7.83%，香港恒生指数下跌13.22%。泛欧斯托克600指数开盘后不久下跌6%，德国DAX指数早盘跌幅超过9.5%。The US stock market also fell victim to the country's tariff regime. The Nasdaq plunged 5.8 percent on Friday to end the week by losing over 10 percent, signaling the entry of a bear market for the first time since 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500 nosedived 9.08 percent over the past week, while the Dow Jones slumped 7.86 percent, with both reporting their biggest weekly losses since March 2020.美国股市也成为中国关税政策的牺牲品。道琼斯市场数据显示，纳斯达克指数周五暴跌5.8%，本周收盘跌幅超过10%，标志着美国股市自2022年以来首次进入熊市。标普500指数过去一周暴跌9.08%，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌7.86%，均创下2020年3月以来的最大单周跌幅。Zhang Bin, deputy director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the latest US tariff policies are "unprecedented" for this generation. Bringing harm both to the US and other economies, the chain effects are hard to predict. Under such circumstances, it is also difficult to foresee the bottom of the US economy and its capital market.中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌表示，美国最新的关税政策对这一代人来说是“史无前例的”。对美国和其他经济体都造成了伤害，其连锁效应难以预测。在这种情况下，也很难预见美国经济和资本市场的底部。But most domestic and international investors still have a relatively optimistic outlook with regard to China's economic growth and its capital market. China's development of new technologies and the upgrading of its traditional industries have buoyed economic activity and facilitated the recovery of the capital market, he said.但大多数国内外投资者对中国经济增长和资本市场仍持相对乐观的态度。他说，中国新技术的发展和传统产业的升级刺激了经济活动，促进了资本市场的复苏。China has much room for more policies to expand domestic demand, facilitate industrial growth and stabilize exports. The current valuation of Chinese stocks is quite low when compared with historic levels. This indicates the greater appeal of the Chinese capital market, added Zhang.张斌补充表示，中国在扩大内需、促进工业增长和稳定出口方面还有很大的政策空间。与历史水平相比，中国股市目前的估值相当低。这表明中国资本市场的吸引力更大。In the near term, investors across the globe will lower their risk appetite and adopt a wait-and-see stance in anticipation of a recession due to the US tariffs, said Qiu Xiang, chief strategist of CITIC Securities. But A shares will show higher resilience than Hong Kong stocks or those listed on the US stock market, mainly due to the investor structure.中信证券首席策略师邱翔表示，短期内，全球投资者将降低风险偏好，采取观望态度，以应对美国关税导致的经济衰退。但由于投资者结构不同，A股市场的韧性将高于香港股市和在美上市股票。China's policies to offset the aggravated external impact may be implemented earlier or to a greater extent, he said.他表示，中国抵消外部影响加剧的政策可能会会更早出台，或力度更大。Yi Huan, chief macroeconomist at Huatai Securities, agreed that China may come up with stronger countercyclical policies, including boosting consumption and increasing government investment, as well as further energizing the capital market and the property sector.华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易欢也认为，中国可能会出台更有力的逆周期政策，包括促进消费和增加政府投资，以及进一步激发资本市场和房地产行业的活力。In a report released on Sunday, Goldman Sachs, a US investment bank, expected Chinese policymakers to accelerate fiscal easing measures to offset the drag on growth from the higher tariffs announced by the US.美国投行高盛周日发布的一份报告预计，中国决策者将加快财政宽松措施，以抵消美国宣布提高关税对经济增长的拖累。Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management, said on Monday that it holds a "neutral" rating on A shares, given the negative impact of the US tariff policies and the potential retaliatory measures. Investors are advised to look for opportunities in certain State-owned enterprises and high-dividend stocks from the finance, telecommunications, public utility and energy sectors, as these can provide stable returns amid market fluctuations, he said.瑞银全球财富管理首席投资官马克·海费尔周一表示，鉴于美国关税政策和潜在报复措施的负面影响，该行对A股维持“中性”评级。他表示，建议投资者在金融、电信、公用事业和能源等行业寻找某些国有企业和高股息股票的机会，因为这些股票可以在市场波动中提供稳定的回报。In a survey released on Monday, HSBC said that 34 percent of respondents had a positive outlook on the Chinese stock market, higher than the emerging market average and 15 percentage points higher than the last survey conducted in December. The A-share market is thus rated as the top choice among all emerging markets.汇丰银行周一发布的一项调查显示，34%的受访者对中国股市持乐观态度，高于新兴市场平均水平，比去年12月进行的上一次调查高出15个百分点。A股市场因此被评为所有新兴市场中的首选。Meanwhile, these investors, mostly from financial institutions, believed that China's economic stimulus packages will help it to achieve its growth targets both in the short and long term.同时，这些多数来自金融机构的投资者认为，中国的经济刺激计划将有助于其实现短期和长期的增长目标。Murat Ulgen, HSBC's global head of emerging markets research, said that such optimism has reflected investors' confidence in a rebound in China's economic activity, expectations of further stimulus and upbeat sentiment toward the technology sector.汇丰新兴市场研究全球主管穆拉特·乌尔根表示，这种乐观情绪反映了投资者对中国经济活动反弹的信心、对进一步刺激措施的预期以及对科技行业的乐观情绪。tariff hiken.加征关税plungev. / n.骤跌，暴跌risk appetite风险偏好sell-offn.抛售（尤指因恐慌）bear market熊市（股价普遍下跌的市场）retaliatoryadj.报复性的countercyclical policies逆周期政策capital market资本市场baseline tariff基准关税emerging markets新兴市场upbeat sentiment乐观情绪market volatility市场波动wait-and-see stance观望态度

As there have been more signs recently of a bull run in the A-share market, including soaring indexes and the stratospheric level of the trading volume, more economic stimulus policies as well as investors' patience are equally important to further consolidate the upward trend of Chinese equities, said experts.专家表示，由于近期A股市场已出现诸多牛市到来的迹象，比如指数飙升、交易量达到历史最高水平，要进一步巩固中国股市的上升趋势，十分需要更多的经济刺激政策和投资者的耐心。Resuming after the National Day holiday, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gained 4.59 percent to close at 3489.78 points on Tuesday, while the Shenzhen Component Index surged 9.17 percent. The technology-focused ChiNext in Shenzhen spiked 17.25 percent. Semiconductor, software development and securities companies led Tuesday's rally.国庆长假后复盘，上证综指10月8日涨4.59%、报3489.78点，深证成指涨9.17%，创业板指涨17.25%，半导体、软件开发和证券公司引领了该日涨势。The combined trading value at the Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses stood at 3.45 trillion yuan ($490 billion) on Tuesday, surpassing the previous record of 2.6 trillion yuan on Sept 30, the last trading day before the holiday.10月8日，沪深两市成交额达3.45万亿元（约4900亿美元），刷新了节前最后一个交易日9月30日创下的2.6万亿元成交金额历史纪录。The A-share market's rally on Tuesday came as officials of the National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic regulator, said on the same day that the country will launch a batch of incremental policies to promote the sustained economic recovery and development.10月8日，中国最高经济监管机构——国家发展改革委表示，将加力推出一揽子增量政策，推动经济持续回升向好。同日，A股市场反弹。"China is confident of maintaining steady and healthy economic growth and achieve the full-year growth target," said Zheng Shanjie, head of the NDRC, at a news conference on Tuesday, adding that more efforts will be made to strengthen the countercyclical adjustments for macroeconomic policies.“我们对实现全年经济社会发展目标任务充满信心，对保持经济社会持续平稳健康发展充满信心。”国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁10月8日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，将加大宏观政策逆周期调节。The incremental policies released in late September attached greater importance to improving the quality of economic growth, supporting the real economy, facilitating the sound development of market entities, and coordinating high-quality development and high-level security, he said.郑栅洁介绍，9月下旬起发布的一揽子增量政策更加注重提高经济发展质量，更加注重支持实体经济和经营主体健康发展，更加注重统筹高质量发展和高水平安全。Since Sept 24, the country's top regulators have come up with supportive measures covering the financial sector, the property market, and support to the real economy, among others.自9月24日以来，国家最高监管机构已陆续出台了涵盖金融业、房地产市场和支持实体经济等方面的支持措施。The measures will be better used to spur more development potential and better achieve this year's growth target, said Zheng.郑栅洁表示，这些措施将更好地激发更多发展潜力，推动实现今年的增长目标。Meanwhile, continued efforts will be made to boost the capital market, according to Zheng. More effective and comprehensive measures will be introduced to vigorously guide the inflow of long-term capital. Blockages preventing the smoother entry of social security funds, as well as insurance and wealth management funds into the capital market should be removed.与此同时，郑栅洁强调，将继续努力提振资本市场。有关部门将采取有力有效的综合措施，大力引导中长期资金入市，打通社保、保险、理财等资金入市堵点。Public companies will be supported in mergers and acquisitions as well as restructuring. The reform of mutual funds should be advanced steadily, and efforts will be made to promulgate measures to protect individual investors, said Zheng, noting that these policies will be released at a faster pace.支持上市公司并购重组，稳步推进公募基金改革，研究出台保护中小投资者的政策措施。郑栅洁指出，目前各项政策正在加快推出。Liu Gang, managing director of China International Capital Corp, said the measures announced in September had exceeded market expectations and rekindled investors' passion, emphasizing the financial measures' support for the stock market.中金公司研究部董事总经理刘刚强调了金融措施对股市的支持。9月份公布的各项政策超出市场预期，重新点燃了投资者的热情。These have served as a driver for the recent bullish performance of the A-share market. But the market's future performance will be determined by the pace and scale of successive policies, especially fiscal policies, Liu said.刘刚表示，这些都是近期A股市场“走牛”的驱动力。但市场未来的表现将取决于后续政策的步伐和规模，尤其是财政政策。Luo Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, said that fiscal and property market policies should better coordinate with the recently released monetary policies to stabilize investors' confidence and expectations. Increasing the scale of this year's budget deficit, accelerating the issuance of special bonds, granting subsidies to special groups of people and the issuance of additional treasury bonds can be possible options in terms of supportive fiscal measures, he said.粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒表示，财政政策和楼市政策应更好地配合近期发布的货币政策，以稳定投资者的信心和预期。在支持性财政措施方面，增加今年的预算赤字规模、加快发行专项债券、对特殊人群发放补贴、增发国债等都是可能的选择。China may adopt moderate fiscal stimulus of about 1.5 to 2 trillion yuan in the short term, which is also a reasonable level, said Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS Investment Bank.瑞银亚洲经济研究主管及首席中国经济学家汪涛表示，更为合理的预期是短期内政府出台1.5-2万亿元较为温和的财政刺激政策。Chen Guo, chief strategist at China Securities, said that the Chinese stock market's recent bullish performance is supported by the revaluation of Chinese assets and recovered confidence. But a well-grounded overall bull run still needs time, especially the further improvement of economic fundamentals. Investors should have patience for the medium term, he said.中信建投证券首席策略官陈果表示，中国股市近期的牛市迹象得益于中国资产价值重估和信心的恢复。但全面牛市启动仍需要时间，特别是经济发展基本面的进一步改善，投资者应葆有耐心。Noting that the A-share market will enter a period of sustainable growth in the medium term, during which fluctuations cannot be avoided, Zhang Qiyao, chief strategist at Industrial Securities, said there is still room for a rise in the short run. Investors should watch for how long the bullish trend will last rather than focus on short-term peaks, he said.兴业证券首席策略分析师张启尧表示，A股市场将进入中期持续增长期，期间难免出现波动，但短期内仍有上涨空间。相较于关注短期高峰，投资者更应关注牛市趋势将持续多久。In a report released on Monday, analysts from Goldman Sachs raised 10 reasons to increase exposure to A-shares, including strong economic stimulus, upbeat investors' mood, undervalued Chinese equities, companies' improving earnings and a relaxed external environment.在10月7日发布的研报中，高盛分析师提出了看涨中国股市的十大理由，其中包括强劲的经济刺激、上升的投资者情绪、中国股票估值仍有折价、企业盈利前景改善以及宽松的外部环境。consolidatev. 巩固；加强；合并spikev. 飙升，上涨stratosphericadj. 平流层的；高层次的incrementaladj. 增加的，增量的bullishadj. 股票行情看涨的；乐观的

Following the A-share market's recent robust recovery buoyed by a number of stronger-than-expected stimulative policies, increasingly confident investors are attaching more attention to the stock market, whose upward momentum can be further consolidated by more supportive measures and the ongoing optimization of China's economic growth, said industry experts.Preparations were made during the National Day holiday, which ended on Monday. The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced on Sunday that it will add an extra five minutes, from 9:25 to 9:30 on each trading day, fordesignatedtransactions. The new policy will take effect on Tuesday, the first trading day after the holiday.As explained by industry experts, a designated transaction is a step that an investor must take between opening a new stock account and commencing trading on the SSE.The latest adjustment at the SSE has been made to address the surging number of newly registered retail investors over the past few days and to facilitate trading efficiency once the market resumes, they said.The market's upbeat sentiment can be felt at securities brokerages. Leading brokerages provided round-the-clock online account opening and consulting services during the recent holiday. Sinolink Securities said the account opening appointments they received during the holiday jumped 150 percent from a month earlier. Minsheng Securities said the number of daily requests for opening stock accounts over the past seven days was four times the amount before the holiday.To meet such surging demand, the securities account platform and identification information checking system at China Securities Depository and Clearing Co resumed operation on Sunday and Monday.Investor confidence has been supported by the A-share market's recent strong rebound. Ever since the batch of incremental policies was introduced on Sept 24, the Shanghai Composite Index gained 20 percent by the end of September, with the Shenzhen Component Index up 29 percent. The combined trading value at the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges hit a new single-day record of 2.6 trillion yuan ($370 billion) on Sept 30.Laura Wang, chief China equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, said on Oct 3 that Chinese equities will gain another 10 to 15 percent on average if a new round of fiscal expenditure measures can be released in the following weeks.At a news conference scheduled for Tuesday, officials from the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic regulator, will explain their measures to better implement the range of supportive policies released in late September, in order to further advance economic growth and optimize China's economic structure.Yang Delong, chief economist at First Seafront Fund, said the 140-trillion-yuan Chinese household savings will provide more capital for the A-share market after the National Day holiday, providing more upward impetus for the indexes.The increase in the Hong Kong stock market has already overtaken that of the A-share market as the latter took more days off for the holiday, said experts at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities. Therefore, a continued rally can be expected from the A-share market in the short run to narrow the price gap with Hong Kong, they added.Dai Kang, managing director of the development research center at GF Securities, said private equity investment funds have increased their exposure to the A-share market, which has just seen the strongest rebound in months. Chinese policymakers have smartly used the time window of interest rate cuts made by the US Federal Reserve to introduce stronger-than-expected supportive measures, he said.Goldman Sachs upgraded its call on Chinese stocks to overweight, saying that recent stimulus measures have bolstered confidence, and Chinese equities' valuations are below historical averages while their earnings could further improve.Qiu Xiang, joint chief strategist at CITIC Securities, said that the current A-share market rally is mainly supported by reversed market expectations, as a result of the innovative monetary policies and a relaxed grip on the property market announced in late September. A further market recovery can be expected, with companies showing improving earnings and those benefiting from a recovery in domestic demand offering more opportunities to investors, he added.Analysts from Huafu Securities also warned investors of the possibility of adjustments and fluctuations in the A-share market after it experienced a drastic increase. But the recent bull run is far from its end. The overall rise will last longer, they said.Reporter: Shi Jing

Our Chief China Economist Robin Xing and Chief China Equity Strategist Laura Wang discuss how markets have responded to rate cuts and commitments to government spending, and what they could mean over the long term.----- Transcript -----Laura Wang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Laura Wang, Morgan Stanley's Chief China Equity Strategist. Robin Xing: And I'm Robin Xing, Morgan Stanley's Chief China Economist.Laura Wang: All eyes have been on China this past week, and today we'll discuss why recent news from China's policymakers have commanded the attention of global markets.It's Thursday, October the 3rd, at 4pm in Hong Kong.So, Robin, China has been wrestling with the triple macro challenge of debt deflation and demographics -- what we call the three Ds -- for some time now. Last week, China's central bank, PBOC, announced a stimulus package that exceeded market expectations. And then later in the week, top China Communist Party officials, known as the Politburo, focused their monthly meeting on economics, which is not their usual practice.This meeting was a positive surprise to both us and the market. Let's start with the PBOCs easing package. For listeners who haven't been following China's economy closely, what's our current view on China's economy and can you walk us through the policy measures that the central bank introduced?Robin Xing: China's economy has been struggling lately and that's pushed the Beijing to pivot approach. Over the last 18 months, they have tried smaller, reactive measures. But now, they are doing something much bigger. On September 24, the People's Bank of China, PBOC, made a bold move, cutting interest rates and introducing new tools to support the stock market.Now, these cuts might sound small, just 20 basis points, but they are pretty rare in China. They also cut the reserve requirement ratio, which is a fancy way of saying banks can lend more money by 50 basis points. And for the first time, the central bank gave forward guidance, signaling even more cuts could come by year end.On top of that, the PBOC launched two big programs, a 500 billion yuan fund to help investors buy stocks, and a 300 billion yuan program to help companies buy back their own shares. These moves gave a much-needed boost to both the markets and consumer confidence.Laura Wang: And how about the Politburo meeting that came on the heels of the PBOC announcement? What exactly did it focus on?Robin Xing: The Politburo meeting was a rather critical moment. Normally, they don't even talk about the economy in September. But this year was different. It really signaled how urgent things have become.They made it clear they are ready to spend more. The government is pledging to increase public spending because other parts of the economy, like corporates and consumers, are holding back. There is also a big focus on the housing market, which has been in decline since 2021. They are promising to stop that slide, and it's the strongest commitment we have seen so far.Laura Wang: So, given everything we've seen from the PBOC and the Politburo, do you think this is a ‘whatever it takes moment' to address the macro challenges facing China's economy?Robin Xing: Not quite, but it's close. We are seeing the start of what's going to be a bumpy recovery. The deflation problem, where prices are falling and people are not spending, is complicated.Beijing seems open to trying different approaches, but fixing the deeper issues -- like the struggling housing market and the local government debt -- it's going to take a lot. In fact, we think China might need to spend about 1-1.5 trillion dollars over the next two years to really turn things around.Right now, the measures they have announced are smaller than that. That's because these are new policies. And they still need to build consensus and work out the details. So, while this isn't a ‘whatever it takes moment' yet the mindset has definitely shifted in that direction.Laura Wang: In this case, what are the next steps you are monitoring for China's policymaker and how long will the various measures take to implement?Robin Xing: We expect to see a supplementary budget of 1-2 trillion yuan announced at the upcoming NPC Standing Committee meeting in late October. This budget should focus on boosting consumer spending, increasing social welfare, and helping local governments managing their debt. We will likely see more monetary easing too.As well as tweaks to the Housing Inventory Buy Back program. These steps should help the economy grow slightly faster, possibly hitting a 5 per cent quarter on quarter growth over the next two quarters, compared to the 3 per cent we have seen recently.Looking ahead, we will get more clues at the December Central Economic Work Conference. That's when we might see the first signs of plans to use central government funds to tackle housing and local government debt issues. The full details could come in March 2025. If things don't improve quickly, and especially if social unrest starts to rise, Beijing may have to act even more aggressively.We are keeping an eye on our social dynamics indicator, which tracks how people feel about jobs, welfare and income. If that dips further, it could push the government to ramp up stimulus measures.Laura, turning it over to you. How are stock markets reacting to all this policy signaling from China?Laura Wang: I would say to say that the market has responded very enthusiastically is an understatement. I'll give you some numbers.On the first day of the PBOC announcement, the Shanghai Composite Index, as well as the Hong Kong Market Hang Seng Index, were both up by more than 4 per cent in one single day. Then with the further boost from the surprise Politburo meeting -- by now, both the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index have already been up by more than 21 per cent in just one week's time.Robin Xing: Within the China stock market, which sectors and industries do you think will most benefit from the shift in policy?Laura Wang: There are a few ways to position to benefit from this major market condition change. We have a list of companies that we believe will directly benefit from the PBOC market stabilization funding, given the funding's low cost compared to these companies implied re-rating opportunity, just by tapping into the funding and enhancing their shareholder returns.For the potential reflationary fiscal efforts suggested by the Politburo meeting, as more details come out, I think sectors with good exposure to reflation, particularly the private consumption, will benefit the most -- given their still relatively low valuation, large market cap and high liquidity.Robin Xing: Finally, Laura, what are your expectations for the markets in China and outside of China for the next few weeks and months?Laura Wang: Clearly this rally so far is reflecting significant sentiment improvement and capitals that are willing to take a leap of faith and preposition for physical reflationary efforts ramp up. If the government can deliver these measures in a timely fashion, and more importantly, on top of that, communicate their commitment to winning this uphill battle against deflation, I think further valuation re-rating is quite possible for both the Asia market and the Hong Kong market by another 10 to 20 per cent.To go beyond that level, we need to see clear signs of a corporate earnings growth reacceleration, which would require incrementally more easing to come along in the next few months. We should also monitor the housing market inventory level very closely because any earlier completion of this inventory digestion could suggest less drag on demand investment.Obviously, there are still a lot of moving parts and it's still a very much evolving story from here. Robin, thanks for taking the time to talk.Robin Xing: Great speaking with you, Laura.Laura Wang: And thanks for listening. 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Analysts say decisive policy stance bodes well for investment inflow分析人士称，果断的政策立场是投资流入的好兆头The renminbi rallied to its strongest level in more than a year and Chinese equities continued their rebound on Wednesday, after a potent policy package lifted investors' confidence in the Chinese economy, which is expected to sail through headwinds.25日，人民币汇率升至一年多来的最高水平，中国股市继续反弹。此前，强有力的一揽子政策提振了投资者对中国经济的信心，预计中国经济将逆风前行。Economists, investment banks and asset managers said that policymakers' more decisive stance to shore up the economy, a global interest rate cut cycle, and low asset valuations have combined to make it a potentially good time to invest in Chinese financial assets, which are expected to attract more foreign inflow in the months ahead.经济学者、投资银行和资产管理公司表示，决策者在支撑经济方面采取的更为果断的立场、全球降息周期以及低资产估值等因素结合在一起，使得现在可能成为投资中国金融资产的好时机，预计未来几个月中国金融资产将吸引更多外资流入。However, they cautioned that the forecast may be contingent upon the implementation of further policy support to address economic challenges, with the most urgent priorities being additional fiscal spending to bolster domestic demand and direct funding to alleviate property sector woes.然而，他们提醒，这一预测可能取决于为应对经济挑战而实施的进一步政策支持，目前最紧迫的是增加财政支出以促进国内需求，并提供直接资金以缓解房地产行业的困境。On Wednesday, the renminbi, or Chinese yuan, rose to 6.9951 against the US dollar in the offshore market, up 158 basis points from the previous close and past the 7-per-dollar milestone for the first time in 16 months.25日，离岸人民币对美元汇率升至 6.9951，较前一交易日收盘价涨158个基点，16 个月来首次升破7.0元关口。Guan Tao, global chief economist at BOCI China, said that the renminbi's rally is attributable to both Tuesday's policy release, which strengthened investors' confidence in China's economy, and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut last week, which narrowed the yield spreads between US and Chinese bonds.中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛表示，人民币汇率上涨的原因在于24日发布的政策提振了投资者对中国经济的信心，以及美联储上周降息缩小了中美两国国债收益率利差。Looking ahead, Guan said the renminbi is likely to register two-way fluctuations against the dollar, with limited possibility of one-sided, drastic appreciation because uncertainties remain surrounding the Fed's pace of rate cuts, including that the Fed might even reconsider rate hikes if the US economy turns out to be overheated.展望未来，管涛认为，人民币对美元汇率可能会出现双向波动，单边大幅升值的可能性有限，因为美联储的降息步伐仍存在不确定性，如果美国经济过热，美联储甚至可能重新考虑加息。Moreover, the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, is expected to take measures to prevent any renminbi exchange rate overshooting if needed, and has accumulated rich experience in this regard, said Guan, who had served as head of the Balance of Payments Department at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.此外，曾任国家外汇管理局国际收支司司长的管涛表示，中国人民银行作为中国的中央银行，在这方面积累了丰富的经验，预计会在必要时采取措施防止人民币汇率超调。Guan added that in the base case scenario, in which the United States achieves a soft landing while the Fed continues rate cuts, foreign institutions may continue to boost holdings in renminbi-denominated bonds, especially treasury bonds.管涛补充，在美国实现软着陆而美联储继续降息的基本情况下，境外机构可能会继续增持人民币债券，尤其是国债。As of August, overseas institutions' holdings in China's interbank bond market had risen for 12 consecutive months, an increase in foreign holdings of as much as 1.34 trillion yuan ($190.7 billion), according to the PBOC's Shanghai head office.中国人民银行上海总部的数据显示，截至8月份，境外机构已连续12个月增持境内银行间市场债券，累计增持规模高达1.34万亿元人民币（1907亿美元）。Upbeat sentiment乐观的情绪The upbeat sentiment was seen in the A-share market as well. The Shanghai Composite Index went up 1.16 percent to Wednesday's close of 2,896.31 points, extending a jump of 4.15 percent on Tuesday, the biggest rise in about four years.A股市场也出现乐观情绪。上证综指25日收盘涨1.16%，报2896.31点，延续了24日4.15%的涨幅，创下约四年来的最大涨幅。"I believe that this may be a good time to revisit Chinese stocks," said David Chao, global market strategist for the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) at Invesco, a global investment management company.景顺亚太区（日本除外）全球市场策略师赵耀庭表示：“我认为现在可能是重新审视中国股票的好时机。”Chao said China has fired off a meaningful monetary stimulus salvo, which may potentially usher trillions of renminbi in liquidity if fully implemented, sending a strong signal that the government is responding to economic headwinds.赵耀庭认为，中国已经打响了有意义的货币刺激战，如果政策全面实施，可能会释放万亿元流动性，表明政府正在应对经济逆风的强烈信号。Major package一揽子政策On Tuesday, China's top financial regulators unveiled a set of measures that some analysts said might be the country's biggest monetary stimulus package following the pandemic.24日，中国最高金融监管机构公布了一系列措施，一些分析人士认为，这可能是疫情之后中国最大的货币刺激计划。This includes a 20 basis point reduction in the seven-day reverse repo rate, a key policy benchmark of interest rates, as well as a 50 basis point cut to rates on existing mortgages and another 50 basis point cut to the reserve requirement ratio, apart from other steps supportive of the property and stock markets.除了其他支持房地产和股票市场的措施外，该计划还包括将作为主要政策利率的7天期逆回购操作利率下调20个基点，将存量房贷利率下调50个基点，将存款准备金率再下调50个基点。The PBOC started to put the package into action by lowering the one-year medium-term lending facility rate, a policy rate, by 30 basis points to 2 percent on Wednesday.25日，中国人民银行将中期借贷便利利率下调30个基点至2%，开始推动一揽子政策落地实施。A Goldman Sachs report said on Wednesday that the latest stimulus package would be strong enough to catalyze a policy-induced rally in shares listed in Hong Kong and on the Chinese mainland, though it would be unlikely to "turn things around fundamentally".高盛25日的一份报告表示，最新的经济刺激计划足以催化中国香港和中国大陆上市股票的政策性反弹，但不太可能“从根本上扭转局面”。The report said a relending program unveiled on Tuesday will allow listed companies to borrow inexpensive money to shore up stock prices and boost investor sentiment, while the stock stabilization fund that is under policy study, if launched, might help fend off systemic risks in the stock market, as indicated by experiences in other markets.报告称，24日公布的再贷款政策将允许上市公司借入低成本资金，以支撑股价和提振投资者情绪，而正在进行政策研究的股票平准基金如果启动，将有助于抵御股市的系统性风险，其他市场的经验也表明了这一点。While the PBOC introduced two new policy tools aimed at boosting stock market liquidity, the China Securities Regulatory Commission released a guideline on Tuesday to encourage mergers and acquisitions and a draft rule to strengthen listed companies' market capitalization management.在央行推出两项旨在提高股市流动性的新政策工具的同时，中国证监会24日发布了鼓励并购的指导意见和加强上市公司市值管理的规定草案。Yet more could be done, with Goldman Sachs saying that "we would turn more aggressive on A shares when signs of property market stabilization emerge or policy momentum further strengthens".然而，还有更多事情可以做，高盛表示：“当房地产市场出现稳定迹象或政策势头进一步加强时，我们将对A股采取更积极的态度。”Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Bank, underlined the importance of beefing up fiscal support, as "monetary easing would be less effective without proactive fiscal policy".渣打银行大中华及北亚区首席经济师丁爽强调了加强财政支持的重要性，因为“如果没有积极的财政政策，宽松货币政策的效果将大打折扣”。It is likely that the government will increase bond issuance to accelerate government spending, Ding said, adding that investor sentiment could improve if policymakers decide to broaden the use of bond proceeds, especially to reduce home inventory.丁爽认为，政府很可能会增加债券发行以加速政府支出。如果决策者决定扩大债券收益的用途，特别是用于房地产去库存，那么投资者的情绪将会有所改善。Ding said that Standard Chartered Bank analysts retain the base case forecast that the renminbi will stay within the range of between 7 and 7.1 against the dollar by the end of the year.丁爽表示，渣打银行分析师维持基本预测，即人民币对美元汇率到今年年底将保持在7至7.1的区间内。bodev．预示；预言rallyv. 反弹，振作；重整；团结fluctuationn. 波动，涨落soft landing软着陆fiscal policy财政政策

Rate cuts set to boost market confidence|降准降息提振市场信心Policy package expected to put economy on‘more favorable growth trajectory'一揽子政策将有力支持经济步入‘更有利的增长轨道'China's top financial regulators, in a move that went beyond market expectations, unveiled a potent combination of monetary easing measures on Tuesday, aimed at anchoring market confidence and underpinning economic recovery amid domestic and global headwinds, analysts said.24日，中国最高金融监管机构推出了一系列强有力的增量货币政策，力度超出市场预期。分析人士称，此举旨在稳定市场信心，在国内和全球经济逆风中支撑经济复苏。The forceful one-two punch, including cutting the reserve requirement ratio, key policy interest rates and existing mortgage loan interest rates, will foster a more enabling climate for the world's second-largest economy to hit this year's growth target, they added.分析人士补充，降低存款准备金率和政策利率、降低存量房贷利率等“双管齐下”的强有力措施，将为世界第二大经济体实现今年的增长目标创造更有利的环境。"Recent macroeconomic data pointing to a tepid recovery in domestic consumption and weak inflationary pressures have created space for policymakers to ramp up efforts to bolster the economy," said Ming Ming, chief economist at CITIC Securities.中信证券首席经济学家明明表示：“近期宏观经济数据显示，国内消费复苏乏力，通胀压力疲软，这为决策者加大力度刺激经济创造了空间。”"The gradual release of the policy package will help shore up market sentiment, unleash pent-up consumer demand, and drive a pickup in prices, putting the economy on a more favorable growth trajectory," he added.明明补充道：“逐步发布一揽子政策将有助于支撑市场情绪，释放被压抑的消费需求，推动物价回升，使经济走上更有利的增长轨道。”Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, the nation's central bank, said at a news conference on Tuesday that the reserve requirement ratio — the amount of cash that banks are required to have on hand — will be reduced by 0.5 percentage point in the near term, which will free up about 1 trillion yuan ($142.2 billion) for new lending.中国人民银行行长潘功胜在24日的新闻发布会上表示，近期将下调存款准备金率0.5个百分点，向金融市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元（约1,422亿美元）。This marks the second time that the central bank has lowered the RRR this year, after implementing a 0.5 percentage point reduction in February, indicating that Chinese policymakers are proactively tapping into the policy space provided by the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut last week, experts said.专家分析，继今年2月份下调存款准备金率（银行被要求持有的资金数量）0.5个百分点后，央行第二次下调存款准备金率，这表明中国决策者正在积极利用美联储上周降息所提供的政策空间。Following the latest reduction, the average reserve ratio for the banking sector will drop to around 6.6 percent. This level still leaves considerable flexibility to further lower the RRR if needed, when compared with other major global economies, Pan said.潘功胜表示，降准政策实施后，银行业平均存款准备金率将降至6.6% 左右。与全球其他主要经济体相比，这一水平仍有相当大的灵活性，可在必要时进一步降低存款准备金率。China's central bank will not shy away from further RRR cuts of 0.25 to 0.5 percentage point this year, depending on the prevailing market liquidity conditions, Pan added.潘功胜补充，根绝当前的市场流动性状况，央行今年有可能进一步下调存款准备金率0.25-0.5个百分点。The central bank also announced a reduction in its seven-day reverse repo rate — the short-term policy benchmark of interest rates — by 0.2 percentage point from the current 1.7 percent to 1.5 percent.央行还宣布，将7天期逆回购操作利率（短期政策利率）下调0.2个百分点，从目前的1.7%降至1.5%。This move is expected to drive down the medium-term lending facility rate by around 0.3 percentage point, with the loan prime rates also projected to follow suit, declining by 0.2 to 0.25 percentage point, Pan added.潘功胜表示，预计本次政策利率调整之后，将会带动中期借贷便利利率下调约0.3个百分点，预期贷款市场报价利率也将随之下行0.2-0.25个百分点。A new set of policies aimed at further stabilizing the real estate market was also unveiled at the news conference, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in average existing mortgage rates and lowering the minimum down payment ratio from the current 25 percent to 15 percent on second homes, among others.新闻发布会上还公布了一系列旨在进一步稳定房地产市场的新政策，其中包括将存量房贷利率下调0.5个百分点，将二套房贷款最低首付比例由当前的25%下调到15%等。Guan Tao, global chief economist at BOCI China, said that Tuesday's policy package was more proactive and comprehensive than expectations and indicated policymakers' intention to deliver timely policy support, helping strengthen society's confidence in achieving the economic growth target of about 5 percent for the year.中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛认为，24日发布的一揽子政策比预期更加积极和全面，表明决策者及时提供政策支持的意图，有助于增强社会对实现全年约5%的经济增长目标的信心。Guan said fiscal policy should synergize with accommodative monetary measures. Measures such as expanding this year's government deficit to boost fiscal spending and optimizing the fiscal spending structure to improve people's livelihoods are worth consideration, especially in light of households' reluctance to consume and invest due to debt burdens.管涛表示，财政政策应与宽松的货币政策协调配合。扩大今年的政府赤字以增加财政支出、优化财政支出结构从而改善民生等措施值得考虑，尤其是在家庭因债务负担而不愿消费和投资的情况下。China's stock and foreign exchange markets reacted positively to the policy release, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index jumping 4.15 percent to Tuesday's close at 2,863.13 points, the biggest rise in about four years.政策发布后，中国股市和外汇市场反应积极，上海证券综合指数大涨4.15%，24日报2,863.13点，创四年多最大日涨幅。Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Golden Credit Rating International, said the policies will provide much-needed support to homeowners by alleviating their debt burden and boosting consumer spending.东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，这些政策将减轻房主的债务负担，促进消费支出，从而为房主提供急需的支持。Wang said the higher level of existing mortgage interest rates compared with new mortgages has triggered a notable wave of early loan repayments, posing a drag on household consumption.王青认为，存量房贷利率高于新发放房贷利率引发了显著的提前还贷潮，拖累了家庭消费。According to a central bank report released in July, the average monthly early repayment volume reached 387 billion yuan from September to December last year, which translates to an annualized early mortgage repayment of around 4.6 trillion yuan.央行7月发布的报告显示，去年9月至12月，月均提前还贷规模达3870亿元，对应年化提前偿还房贷金额约为4.6万亿元。While the mortgage rate cuts, on the other side, will have a tangible impact on bank earnings, the authorities are likely to take a balanced approach, such as orderly adjustments to deposit rates to ensure the banking sector's resilience, Wang said.王青表示，虽然存量房贷利率下调会对银行利润产生实际影响，但当局可能会采取平衡的做法，比如有序下调存款利率，以确保银行业的抗风险能力。policypackage一揽子政策reserve requirement ratio存款准备金率trajectoryn. 轨道market liquidity市场流动性mortgagen. 房贷，抵押借款

Welcome to this week's AHR market review, for the week ending 9th August 2024The global stock markets saw a week of heightened volatility, driven by a mix of economic data releases, central bank actions, and sector-specific developments. In the United States, the three major indices — the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite — showed mixed performances, with only slight changes by the end of the week. European markets were similarly unstable. In Asia, the Japanese stock market was notably volatile, with the Nikkei 225 fluctuating throughout the week. In China, the Shanghai Composite Index ended the week slightly lower as concerns over the country's economic growth continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Indian markets also faced challenges during the week. Commodities markets mirrored the unease in equities, with gold prices inching higher as investors sought safe-haven assets, with gold futures trading around $2,470 per ounce by the end of the week. Overall, the week was characterized by cautious trading as investors grappled with mixed economic signals, central bank actions, and sector-specific developments. That's all for this week's AHR Weekly Podcast. Thank you for listening and for further investment insights head over to ahrprivatewealth.com

China's new round of financial reform is expected to focus on improving the financial system's ability to better support the country's modernization drive, with a priority on bolstering technological innovation and the broader real economy, said financial experts and executives.Also expected to be high on the agenda of the unfolding reform are intensifying financial regulation and strengthening the crackdown on violations to fend off financial risks, as well as deepening financial opening-up to improve resource allocation efficiency, they said.Their comments come at a juncture when the market eagerly waits to see how China will set the tone for the road map for future financial reform and opening-up at an upcoming vital reform meeting — the third plenary session of the 20th Communist Party of China Central Committee, which is scheduled to be held in Beijing from Monday to Thursday.Early this year, President Xi Jinping urged efforts to accelerate the building of a modern financial system with Chinese characteristics at the opening of a study session at the Party School of the CPC Central Committee (National Academy of Governance).Xi, who is also general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, emphasized that the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics adheres to the fundamental purpose of serving the real economy and takes preventing and controlling risks as the eternal theme of financial work.Tian Xuan, associate dean of Tsinghua University's PBC School of Finance, said that one of the core objectives of China's financial reform should be building a modern financial system that efficiently serves the real economy, especially when it comes to financing innovative emerging sectors at lower costs, in order to support technological innovations and nurture new quality productive forces.He said the country's financial reform is expected to feature strengthened regulation to fend off any systemic risks, with the focus being on financial fraud crackdown in the capital market as well as on deficiencies in the supervision and governance of small and medium-sized financial institutions."Our financial markets are still developing and not yet mature. We need the government to play its role well to correct market failures," said Tian, who is also a deputy to the National People's Congress, the country's top legislature.Tian said he expects the upcoming plenary session to introduce reform measures aimed at further developing venture capital — investment funds that invest in startups for long-term growth and are among key accelerators of technological innovation.A meeting on April 30 of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, which was presided over by Xi, called for efforts to actively develop venture capital and strengthen "patient capital", or investment that generates healthy returns in the long run.The emphasis on venture capital has reflected China's broader efforts in capital market reform. China's financial system is now dominated by the banking industry, yet the capital market is seen as more capable of supporting innovation activity. This makes further capital market development an integral step for China, in order to ensure that the financial system becomes more capable of serving its modernization pursuit, experts said.In April, the State Council, China's Cabinet, released a guideline that rolled out nine measures to promote high-quality development of the capital market, drawing up a blueprint for the market and featuring an intensified crackdown on securities violations and strengthened investor protection.Wu Xiaoqiu, dean of Renmin University of China's National Academy of Financial Research, said the guideline has set the right tone for future capital market reform, urging "tough laws and harsh punishments" to stem violations and address the prominent issues of fraudulent listings and false disclosures.The compensation system for small investors affected by those malpractices and induced delistings should also be improved on both the civil and judicial fronts, Wu said.China's A-share market rallied on Thursday, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.06 percent on Thursday to close at 2,970.39 points, following a policy measure issued on Wednesday to restrict short-selling.At the Central Financial Work Conference in November, Xi called for giving full play to the pivotal role of the capital market, advancing the registration-based initial public offering system and steadily expanding institutional opening-up in the financial sector.Experts also underlined the need for China to widen opening-up to strengthen the financial system's ability for resource allocation, expecting the upcoming reform meeting to call for ensuring a transparent, predictable regulatory environment for foreign investors and reinforcing the role of Hong Kong as an international financial hub.Zhang Xiaoyan, a chair professor of finance at Tsinghua University's PBC School of Finance, said she expects the country to further drive financial opening-up to attract more foreign institutional investors, whose global perspective and investment expertise will help channel more resources to technological companies with real strength.Thierry Leger, CEO of Paris-based global reinsurer SCOR, said that China's step-by-step financial opening-up has helped shape a high level of confidence, and it is important for the country to continue to build a stable regulatory environment for foreign investors.Eugene Qian, China country head of UBS and chairman of UBS Securities, said the Swiss financial giant, having benefited from China's capital market reform and opening-up, will continue to leverage its international experience and local expertise to support China's further reform in the capital market.Reporter: Zhou Lanxu, Liu Zhihua, Ouyang Shijiaresource allocation efficiency资源配置效率the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics中国特色金融发展之路market failures市场失灵

With the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite Index rallying in the past few sessions, we ask Carlos Casanova, Senior Economist, UBP if this means that the concerns over a slowing economy in China are unwarranted. We also ask if the Fed has managed to pull off the amazing feat of getting the economy to achieve a Goldilock's moment.Image Credit: Shutterstock.com

Recent data points point to a recovery in the Chinese economy with the equity markets taking note as the Shanghai Composite Index is up 3% on a year to date basis. Jack Kouzi, Director for Strategy at VFS Group tells us where are the opportunities in the market whilst weighing in on the potential headwinds.Image Credit: Shutterstock.com

The global artificial intelligence surge, both technologically and investment-wise, combined with China's emphasis on new quality productive forces, will boost AI-related A-share performance, which in turn will drive up associated indexes this year, said experts.专家表示，全球人工智能在技术和投资方面的激增，加上中国对新质生产力的重视，将推动人工智能相关的A股表现，这反过来将推动今年相关指数的上涨。While the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index shed 0.41 percent on Tuesday, A-share AI companies registered an average share price increase of 1.15 percent. With this, share prices of these AI companies have jumped nearly 19 percent since Feb 19, when trading resumed after the Spring Festival holiday.2024年3月12日，当基准上证综合指数下跌0.41%时，A股人工智能公司的平均股价上涨了1.15%。受此影响，自2月19日春节假期后复牌以来，这些人工智能公司的股价上涨了近19%。The global AI boom serves as one major impetus, especially after ChatGPT's creator Open AI released text-to-video generator Sora on Feb 16. Nvidia, the major supplier for Open AI's graphics chips, saw its shares hit record highs, overtaking Amazon and Google's parent company Alphabet in terms of market value.全球人工智能的繁荣是一个主要的推动力，尤其是在ChatGPT的创造者Open AI于2月16日发布了文本到视频生成器Sora之后。Open AI图形芯片的主要供应商英伟达(Nvidia)股价创下历史新高，市值超过了亚马逊(Amazon)和谷歌母公司Alphabet。Zhang Yidong, chief global strategist at Industrial Securities, said the global AI phenomenon will not only buoy the US bourse, but also drive up the value of A-share tech companies, thus helping boost A-share performance in general.兴业证券首席全球策略师张忆东表示，全球人工智能现象不仅会提振美国股市，还会推高A股科技公司的价值，从而有助于提振A股的整体表现。More importantly, China promised in this year's Government Work Report to launch an "AI plus" initiative to accelerate the technology's commercial applications. Meanwhile, new quality productive forces, which have been emphasized in the report, also include emerging industries such as AI, computing and humanoid robots. All these suggest an increasing focus on industrial investment, said analysts from Guotai Junan Securities.更重要的是，中国在今年的政府工作报告中承诺，将启动“人工智能+”计划，加快该技术的商业应用。与此同时，报告中强调的新型优质生产力还包括人工智能、计算和人形机器人等新兴产业。国泰君安证券的分析师表示，所有这些都表明，中国越来越关注工业投资。Liu Chenming, chief strategist at GF Securities, said AI will serve as a major force empowering industries' intelligent digitalization in China. The application of AI technologies will help improve total factor productivity and the country's structural transformation and upgrading. This is also in line with this year's Government Work Report which calls for high-quality development, he said.广发证券首席策略师刘晨明表示，人工智能将成为推动中国工业智能数字化的主要力量。人工智能技术的应用将有助于提高全要素生产率，促进国家结构转型升级。他说，这也符合今年政府工作报告提出的高质量发展的要求。Ethan Wang, head of investment strategy for wealth management at Standard Chartered China, said A-share investors should pay particular attention to AI applications in China given the country's advantages in application scenarios in internet and big data modalities, as well as the commercialization of innovative technologies. Specifically, device makers integrating AI services and the commercial use of AI in business scenarios will churn out the most investment opportunities in China, Wang said.渣打银行中国财富管理投资策略主管王昕杰表示，鉴于中国在互联网和大数据模式的应用场景以及创新技术的商业化方面的优势，A股投资者应该特别关注中国的人工智能应用。具体来说，整合人工智能服务和人工智能在商业场景中的商业用途的设备制造商将在中国产生最多的投资机会。Analysts from Kaiyuan Securities suggested A-share investors search for opportunities related to animation along with film and television companies, especially those possessing well-established intellectual property, as the application of multimodal AI will significantly improve their efficiency and reduce costs.开元证券的分析师建议A股投资者寻找与动画和影视公司相关的机会，特别是那些拥有成熟知识产权的公司，因为多模式人工智能的应用将显著提高它们的效率并降低成本。Opportunities can also be found among semiconductor firms as iteration in AI foundation models will drive up computing demand, said experts from China International Capital Corp Ltd.中国国际金融有限公司的专家表示，随着人工智能基础模型的迭代将推高计算需求，半导体公司也可以找到机会。Li Zhan, chief economist at China Merchants Fund, said that technological innovation will be the major investment theme in China for many years to come. Industries which are supported by favorable industrial policies and the country's resources will generate the most investment opportunities, among which AI is included.招商局基金首席经济学家李湛表示，技术创新将是未来许多年中国的主要投资主题。受到有利的产业政策和国家资源支持的行业将产生最多的投资机会，其中包括人工智能。Experts from UBS Global Wealth Management's Chief Investment Office believe that AI will be the fastest growing tech sector globally over the next decade, with the possibility of it growing into the largest tech sector in 10 years' time.瑞银全球财富管理首席投资办公室的专家认为，未来十年，人工智能将成为全球增长最快的科技领域，并有可能在10年内成长为最大的科技领域。UBS瑞士联合银行（United Bank of Switzerland）Ltd.股份有限公司（Limited）

¡Descubre la cruda realidad del mercado chino! China, la segunda economía más grande del mundo, enfrenta una crisis económica post-pandémica que está dejando a todos boquiabiertos. A pesar de un modesto crecimiento del 5.2% en su PIB en 2023, la sombra del desempleo juvenil y la debacle del sector inmobiliario siguen oscureciendo el panorama. Imagina esto: desarrolladores gigantes como Evergrande caen en deudas impagables, dejando un exceso de oferta de viviendas que el mercado simplemente no puede absorber debido a los precios estratosféricos. ¡Se estima que tomaría una década vender el inventario actual! Pero espera, hay más. La Bolsa de Valores china está en picada mientras que el S&P 500 de Estados Unidos se dispara hacia las nubes. ¡Las acciones chinas han perdido un asombroso valor de US$6 trillones en solo tres años! Pero no todo está perdido. El gobierno chino ha lanzado medidas para salvar la situación, incluyendo la reducción de las reservas de las entidades financieras para inyectar liquidez en la economía. ¿El resultado? Un modesto aumento del 3.03% en el Shanghai Composite Index. Pero, cuidado, las aguas siguen turbulentas. La volatilidad en torno a las acciones chinas parece estar lejos de desaparecer, con tensiones geopolíticas y una posible confrontación bélica en el horizonte. ¡Es hora de ser astuto! Antes de aventurarte en el mercado chino, considera todos los riesgos posibles. La volatilidad histórica y los rendimientos fluctuantes son solo el comienzo. ¿Te atreves a adentrarte en el torbellino financiero chino?

Major stories developing on the global economic front, including:Financial FrontiersChina's Economic JittersTech Giants Move to SaudiPower Surge for NorthvoltCEO Greed Reaches Stunning New HeightsChile's Spicy Rate Cut ExpectationsEuro-Zone Wealth Inequality Gap NarrowsBudget Breakthrough: US Congress Strikes Bipartisan DealBitCoin Surges to 21 Month HighBig Pharma's Spending SpreeOn this episode of FinWeekly: We're unpacking the U.S. Consumer Inflation Report and its impact on market sentiment and policy decisions. We also explore economic jitters in China, and how struggling stimulus efforts and geopolitical tensions are affecting the Shanghai Composite Index. Find out what's behind tech giants' strategic move to Saudi Arabia and the Middle East's paradigm shift. Plus, delve into Northvolt's EU-approved billion-euro plant, and the staggering CEO pay increase at Bet365 Group. Then, we'll uncover Chile's unexpected economic downturn and the Euro-Zone's evolving wealth inequality. At home in the US, a groundbreaking bipartisan budget deal in the U.S. Congress and the recent surge of Bitcoin have people feeling optimistic. And finally we'll recap Big Pharma's $6.4 billion spending spree in San Francisco. Join us for a comprehensive analysis of these financial topics and gain insights into their potential impacts on global markets.  Disclaimer:BYFIQ, LLC is a wholly owned entity of Coltivar Group, LLC. The views expressed here are those of the individual Coltivar Group, LLC (“Coltivar”) personnel quoted and are not the views of Coltivar or its affiliates. Certain information contained in here has been obtained from third-party sources. While taken from sources believed to be reliable, Coltivar has not independently verified such information and makes no representations about the enduring accuracy of the information or its appropriateness for a given situation.This content is provided for informational purposes only, and should not be relied upon as legal, business, investment, or tax advice. You should consult your own advisers as to those matters. References to any securities or digital assets are for illustrative purposes only, and do not constitute an investment recommendation or offer to provide investment advisory services. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendations. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. Please see https://www.byfiq.com/terms-and-privacy-policy for additional important information.Support the show

Chinese equities soared on Monday morning following the announcement of a stamp duty cut, but most of these gains were lost by the time the market closed, indicating that more substantial stimulus to shore up economic growth may still be integral for the rally to become sustained and full-blown, experts said.专家表示，在宣布下调印花税后，中国股市于28日上午飙升，但到收盘时，大部分涨幅已经消失，这表明出台更多支撑经济增长的实质性刺激措施仍然是使股市持续反弹的关键。The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index jumped 5.06 percent when the market opened on Monday as investors were cheered by a significant policy package delivered on Sunday to revitalize the capital market, including slashing the stamp duty levied on stock trading from 0.1 percent to 0.05 percent, starting from Monday.近日，财政部、国家税务总局、证监会发布多项活跃资本市场的政策，其中包括从8月28日起，将证券交易印花税从0.1%下调至0.05%，受此影响，28日上证指数开盘涨5.06%。Nevertheless, the index lost most of its early gains when the market closed, ending 1.13 percent higher at 3,098.64 points. The ChiNext Index, tracking China's Nasdaq-style board of growth enterprises, gained 6.96 percent at the market opening but closed only 0.96 percent higher at 2,060.04 points.不过，截至当天收盘，该指数涨1.13%，报3,098.64点，回吐早盘大部分涨幅。当天开盘时，创业板指数涨6.96%，收盘时指数涨0.96%，报2060.04点。An index tracking securities firms, which led the morning rally, went up by 2.35 percent to close at 9,408.82 points, versus 10.75 percent at the market opening, according to market tracker Wind Info.根据市场追踪机构万得资讯的数据，证券板指数上涨2.35%，收于9,408.82点，而市场开盘时为10.75%，领涨早盘。Charlie Zheng, chief economist at Samoyed Cloud Technology Group Holdings, said the market might have overreacted in the morning session to the announcement and triggered a sell-off later, with investors' expectations of future market movements diverging.萨摩耶云科技集团首席经济学家郑磊表示，由于投资者对未来市场走势的预期出现分歧，在早盘时市场可能对这一消息反应过度，但随后引发了抛售。The A-share market may stabilize in the coming weeks as the pace of IPOs and refinancing slows while additional capital is ushered into the market。收紧IPO和再融资以及更多资本进入市场，有助于在未来几周稳定A股市场。The China Securities Regulatory Commission pledged on Sunday to temporarily slow the pace of IPOs, relax the margin financing requirement and implement more stringent regulation on major shareholder selling. This came after the commission encouraged mid- and long-term funds, such as those managed by pension managers and insurance companies, to beef up equity investments, on Thursday.中国证监会27日表示，阶段性收紧IPO节奏，适当放宽融资保证金比例，严格监管上市公司大股东减持行为。此前，中国证监会于24日鼓励中长期基金(如养老金、保险资金)加快发展权益投资。"But, to kick-start an upward market trend, merely relying on these policies aimed at supporting the market won't be enough," said Zheng, who urged more efforts to improve economic fundamentals, such as restoring the confidence of private enterprises and approving more central government debt to boost aggregate demand.郑磊表示，仅依靠支持性市场政策来提振市场是不够的，因此，他呼吁采取更多的措施改善经济基本面，比如恢复私营企业的信心，批准更多中央政府债务以刺激总需求等。David Scutt, a market analyst at GAIN Capital, also cautioned that it's "debatable" whether the latest measures can lead to anything more than a short-term bounce if meaningful measures to spur activity in the real economy are not delivered.嘉盛资本市场分析师戴维•斯卡特提醒，如果没有出台有效的刺激实体经济的措施，那么最新的措施不一定能带来短期反弹。On Monday, northbound trading of stock connects between mainland and Hong Kong exchanges saw a net 8.25 billion yuan ($1.13 billion) outflow of A shares, after Bloomberg reported on Friday that Morgan Stanley had cut its price targets of Chinese equities indexes due to earnings pressures.28日，在中国内地和香港交易所之间的股票交易中，A股净流出82.5亿元人民币(11.3亿美元)，彭博社曾于25日表示，摩根士丹利因盈利压力下调了中国大陆和香港股指目标。Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said both China's economic fundamentals and the A-shares earnings cycle are in the process of bottoming out and will likely gradually improve, citing that more policies to stabilize the economy are in the offing, including those to address the real estate downturn and local government debt risks.中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，经济基本面和A股盈利周期均处于磨底状态，未来两者均有望逐步改善，并将出台更多稳定经济的政策，包括解决房地产低迷和地方政府债务风险的政策。Chris Liu, a senior portfolio manager at Invesco, a global investment management company, said there could also be further policy support to the market if needed, such as extending trading hours and expanding mutual fund investment scope.全球投资管理公司景顺投资管理公司高级投资组合经理刘徽表示，如有必要，还可能进一步出台政策以支持市场，如延长交易时间和扩大共同基金投资范围。This is because the stamp duty cut — which could save investors annual trading costs of roughly 138 billion yuan — has signaled that the authorities are paying a great deal of attention to revitalizing investors' sentiment, Liu said.刘徽说，印花税下调不仅将为投资者每年节省大约1380亿元的交易成本，这更向市场释放信号，表明政府非常关注中国股市，以提振投资者情绪。Stampduty英[ˈstæmp djuːti] 美[ˈstæmp duːti]n.印花税;Boost英[buːst] 美[buːst]vt.促进;使增长;使兴旺;偷窃;n.提高;增长;帮助;激励Stock英[stɒk] 美[stɑːk]n.股票;

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44d1yL0 One of the things I used to get most frustrated by in the 2000-2007 period of artificially low interest rates, or 2010-2016, or 2020-2022, is how people assumed a central bank reducing rates was a good thing, when the only reason the Fed was doing it was because they believed things were bad. In other words, yes, a rate cut or low rates may (in many cases but not all) boost asset prices, but if the rate cut is coming because of fears of economic weakness (or actual economic weakness) there is ample reason to believe the celebration should be delayed. Now, I believe the Fed has rates way too tight right now and I further believe it is for all the wrong reasons. Yet if the Fed were cutting, not because they realize they over-did it, but rather because we were seeing screaming, severe recessionary conditions, does anyone believe that would be a positive thing? The People's Bank of China unexpectedly cut rates last night because things there are terrible. The Shanghai Composite Index was down -0.49% and the CSI 300 was down -0.31%. U.S. futures dropped -250 points and as I type the market is down -300 points (the final closing numbers are below). The reason risk assets responded negatively to what people intuitively (and naively) think is a good thing (i.e. unexpected rate cuts)? Because the rate cuts are due to things being, ummmm, bad. China's situation now is case in point. This was the PBOC's second rate cut this summer. Consumer spending, industrial production, and business investment were all less than expected. And everything happening there is teeing up this Friday's Dividend Cafe on what I see as pending Chinafication – not the economic softening itself, but the response to the softening and what that creates. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Shanghai Composite Index is down 15% year-to-date but has bounced off its October lows following the China Party Congress meeting that month. Since then, there were a slew of changes with regards to Covid-19 restrictions which were fast and abrupt. More recently China said it will remove quarantine requirements for inbound travellers from January 8. Has the Chinese economy passed its most challenging period and what sectors and stocks should investors be keeping their eyes on in 2023?Image credit: Shutterstock

Inflation rate in the US hit its fastest pace in nearly four decades last year at 7% as pandemic-related supply and demand imbalances, along with stimulus intended to shore up the economy pushed prices higher. This accelerating inflation, analysts believe, could cause the US Federal Reserve to get even more aggressive than economists expect in the way it raises interest rates this year. Credit Suisse says, "We are a bit concerned about the inflation rate that is running very high in the US, which could prompt the US Fed to increase interest rates much faster in the future. Nevertheless, the market has already priced in faster tapering and one rate hike by March 2022." In this backdrop, global equity markets have remained on the edge ahead of the US central bank's two-day meeting that started Tuesday. While they expect no action regarding interest rates just yet, they feel the Committee will look to hike rates in March 2022. If that happens, it will be the first increase in the central bank's benchmark rate since December 2018. Those at Rabobank International, too, agree and expect the US Fed to start hiking rates as we head deeper into 2022 with the first rate hike in March 2022. "Recent testimony, speeches and interviews have made it clear that the FOMC is gung ho and ready to start hiking in March. Unless we see a setback in the real economy, we expect the Fed to hike each quarter this year," says Philip Marey, Senior US Strategist, Rabobank International.  And even as the markets have discounted the possible hike in rates by the US central bank, experts say the volatility is here to stay and investors should remain cautious. "Excessive volatility is likely to continue for a few more days until clarity emerges out of the crucial Fed meet. The market is discounting a hawkish Fed. If the US central bank does sound very hawkish and indicates four rate hikes in 2022, the market will again turn weak," says VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services. That said, the Indian markets, which saw a stellar run for most part of 2021, have underperformed in the past few months. The benchmark Nifty50 has declined 7% from its October high of 18,339, as against around 4% decline each in the United States' Dow Jones Industrial Average and MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The MSCI World Index, meanwhile, has declined around 5 per cent. China's Shanghai Composite Index, seems to have  Will this underperformance continue? Let's go to Deepak Jasani, head of retail research at HDFC Securities for his views on the road ahead for the markets in the short-term. The markets will remain closed on Wednesday on account of Republic Day and will react to the outcome of the US Fed meeting when it resumes business on Thursday, January 27.   Watch video

Macroeconomic data, upcoming Q1 earnings and global trends are likely to dictate market direction this week, say analysts. Any disappointment on the earnings front amid expensive valuations, they say, can weaken the overall positive sentiments. The benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty shed 0.8 per cent each last week. Going into trade, investors will continue to track cues from global markets in order to gain direction in movement. Rising vaccination and reducing Covid cases are likely to provide optimism in the market. So far, India has recorded 3.05 crore cases and over 4 lakh fatalities. Meanwhile, the cumulative number of Covid-19 vaccine doses administered in India has crossed 34.46 crore, according to the Union Health Ministry. Furthermore, large and mid-cap IT companies will remain in focus this week as Q1 FY22 result season commences in India, with Tata Consultancy Services slated to post its results on July 8. Avenue Supermarts, Delta Corp, Shyam Metalics and Energy and PTC Industries are among other companies slated to post their quarterly numbers this week. On the macro front, investors will track the Services and Composite PMI data that is slated to be out today. According to the monthly IHS Markit India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), the services PMI stood at 46.4 in May, signalling contraction. Meanwhile, Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index fell to 48.1 in May from 55.4 in April, suggesting a slowdown in private sector output growth. Action in the primary market will return after a week's hiatus as two initial public offers (IPOs) will open this week. Clean Science and Technology and GR Infraprojects' IPOs will run between July 7-9 and cumulatively look to raise a little over Rs 2,500 crore.  That said, shares of recently concluded India Pesticides IPO will commence trading on the exchanges today. The issue price has been fixed at Rs 296 per share and according to analysts, the scrip can list at a premium of over 15 per cent. Lastly, oil price movement, rupee's trajectory and FII flows can also influence market mood. And now, let's take a look at the trade setup for today. Asian stocks were steady after US shares extended a rally on speculation the Federal Reserve has scope to continue providing substantial stimulus support. Japan's Topix index fell 0.3%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.2%, South Korea's Kospi and China's Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.4% each. Meanwhile, SGX Nifty hinted at a near gap-up start for the benchmark indices today as it was trading 97 points higher at 15,844 around 7.40 am. Now, a look at the stock-specific triggers that are likely to guide the market today. Avenue Supermarts said its standalone revenue from operations rose 31.27 per cent YoY to Rs 5,031.75 crore for the quarter ended June 30. IndoStar Capital Finance has acquired a 25 crore share in its home finance subsidiary for Rs 250 crore, the company said on Friday. HCL Technologies has announced a multi-year agreement with Fiskars Group to help them with digital transformation. HDFC said it earned Rs 263 crore as profit on sale of investments during the first quarter of the current financial year. Vodafone Idea can raise funds through equity sale or promoters can infuse capital which can be used for clearing dues, non-profit entity Telecom Watchdog said in a letter to telecom minister while demanding rejection of the debt-ridden company's request seeking more time to pay dues of Rs 8,292 crore.

A surprisingly hawkish tone by the US Federal Reserve -- where it guided for two potential rate hikes in 2023 -- crushed equities across the globe on Thursday as investors feared global central banks may hike rates sooner than expected. US Treasury yields gained overnight and the dollar strengthened against the rupee today to its highest level in six weeks, hammering equity prices on Dalal Street. This comes on the day of the weekly F&O expiry, adding to the overall volatility. What could have further dented the sentiment is a report by Swiss brokerage UBS, which says that the Indian economy is unlikely to see a V-shaped recovery in Q1FY22 as consumer sentiment remains very weak this time and people are more worried about the pandemic than last year. The frontline S&P BSE Sensex declined 484 points from the day's high and hit a low of 52,040. It, however, ended at 52,323 levels, down 179 points or 0.34 per cent. On the NSE, the Nifty50 index breached below its immediate support of 15,650 and hit a low of 15,616. It recovered marginally to end at 15,691 levels, down 76 points or 0.48 per cent. In the broader markets, the BSE MidCap index cracked 1.3 per cent while the BSE SmallCap index slipped 0.58 per cent. Individually, shares of Gujarat Gas hit a new high of Rs 674.80 after they advanced 6 per cent on the BSE in intra-day trade on Thursday. In the past four weeks, the stock of the integrated oil and gas firm has rallied 32 per cent after it reported a strong set of numbers for the quarter ended March (Q4FY21). In comparison, the S&P BSE Sensex is up 5.6 per cent during the same period. Furthermore, shares of cement companies surged up to 7 per cent on the BSE in intra-day trade in an otherwise subdued market on expectation of demand recovery in the coming quarters. Ambuja Cements and JK Lakshmi Cement hit their respective record highs in intra-day trade today while Saurashtra Cement, Andhra Cements, KCP, JK Lakshmi Cement and Gujarat Sidhee Cement gained between 4 per cent and 7 per cent. Besides, Orient Cement, JK Cement, and UltraTech Cement advanced in the range of 2 per cent to 3 per cent. Shares of breweries and distilleries were also on a roll, with Globus Spirits, Radico Khaitan and Associated Alcohols & Breweries hitting their respective highs. The stocks rallied up to 20 per cent on the BSE in intra-day trade on Thursday, in an otherwise weak market, on the back of strong earnings and expectation of rising demand for premium and high-price alcohol. United Breweries, United Spirits, Pioneer Distilleries and Som Distilleries & Breweries, meanwhile, gained in the range of 1 per cent to 3 per cent. Sectorally, the Nifty Metal index slipped 2 per cent, followed by the Nifty Realty index (1.6 per cent) and the Nifty PSB and Auto indices (around 1.5 per cent each). The Nifty FMCG and IT indices, on the other hand, gained 0.14 per cent and 0.57 per cent, respectively. In the primary market, the Rs 520-crore IPO of Dodla Dairy has been subscribed 3.2 times while that of KIMS was subscribed 54 per cent till about 4:30 PM on the second day of the issue. Global markets   Global stock markets were mostly lower Thursday after the Federal Reserve indicated it might ease off economic stimulus earlier than previously thought. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo lost 0.9 per cent, South Korea's Kospi and Australia's S&P-ASX 200 shed 0.4 per cent each. China's Shanghai Composite Index, on the contrary, rose 0.2 per cent while Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.4 per cent. In Europe, too, the pan-European STOXX 600 index was down 0.3 per cent, the UK's FTSE 100 lost 0.3 per cent, and Frankfurt's DAX was off less than 0.1 per cent. The CAC 40 in Paris also retreated 0.1 per cent. On Wall Street, futures for the benchmark S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 0.3 per cent. In the commodities market, Gold and Silver futures tanked 2 per cent each while Brent Cr

The market traded on an upbeat note last week, with Nifty making a new record high after spending nearly three months in a corrective phase. Analysts expect this momentum to sustain as fresh Covid cases continue to decline, and amid hopes of unlocking of the economy.   Going into the trade this week, the MPC's interest rate decision, a host of macroeconomic data announcements, Covid-19 trends and global factors would be key market driving forces. The consistent fall in fresh coronavirus cases in the country is boosting investor sentiment as the risk arising from Covid is steadily subsiding. In the last 24 hours, India reported 1.53 lakh cases. On Sunday, the fresh cases stood at 1.65 lakh and on Saturday at 1.73 lakh. Amid the declining trend in fresh cases, investors would await announcements on how the state governments plan to unlock, which would further decide the market trend. A lot of important macroeconomic data and events are lined up this week. On the macroeconomic front, GDP data for the March quarter is slated to be out on Monday along with the core sector data for April. The Markit Manufacturing PMI and Markit Services PMI data will be released on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. Besides, monthly auto sales numbers will also start pouring in from June 1. Analysts expect sales volumes to be hit by the second Covid-19 wave and lockdowns across states. Importantly, the RBI monetary policy committee (MPC) review meeting outcome is scheduled to be out on Friday, June 4. While the expectations are ripe that RBI MPC will maintain its accommodative stance, investors will look out for the central bank's assessment of the impact of the Covid wave on GDP growth. That apart, we are now in the last leg of earnings season and companies like ITC, Aurobindo Pharma, Bharat Forge, PVR and Motherson Sumi will announce their quarterly numbers along with several others during the week. And lastly, oil price movement, FII flows and the rupee's trajectory versus the dollar are also likely to influence market sentiments. And now, let's take a look at the trade setup for today. Most Asian stocks retreated and US equity futures were steady as investors continue to weigh inflation risks and the strength of the economic recovery. Equities slipped in Japan, Hong Kong and China, where a gauge of the manufacturing industry suggested the economy's recovery momentum might have peaked. Japan's Topix index fell 0.6%, Hang Seng Index fell 0.4% and Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.3%. Tracking weakness in Asian peers, Indian markets too eyed a tepid start. SGX Nifty was ruling 48 points down at 15,444 around 7.35 am. A look at the stock-specific triggers that are likely to guide the market today. Aurobindo Pharma, Chemcon Speciality Chemicals, Astron Paper & Board Mill, Jamna Auto Industries and Uttam Galva Steels are among 79 companies slated to post their quarterly numbers today. Bank of Baroda reported a standalone net loss of Rs 1,047 crore in the quarter ended March 2021, as it shifted to a new tax regime. The lender had reported a standalone profit-after-tax of Rs 507 crore in the year-ago period. Mobile advertising firm Affle (India) posted a nearly three-fold jump in consolidated profit at Rs 58.7 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2021. The company had posted a net profit of Rs 20 crore in the same quarter a year ago. Drug firm Divi's Laboratories reported a 29.30 per cent YoY rise in its consolidated net profit to Rs 502.02 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2021, on account of robust sales. Suzlon Energy on Saturday said Himanshu Mody is appointed as its new Chief Financial Officer from August 1, 2021.

Unfavourable global market cues, unabated rise in Covid cases and hiccups in vaccination drive are among factors that are likely to drive Indian markets lower on Friday after four straight sessions of gains this week. Furthermore, stock-specific action is expected to influence market trajectory on an earnings heavy day. At 7.20 am, SGX Nifty was ruling 141 points lower at 14,790, indicating a gap-down start to the May F&O series. India for the ninth day in a row recorded fresh Covid infections over 3 lakh with the caseload inching closer to the 4 lakh mark as India reported 3,86,693 fresh cases in the last 24 hours. Amid this backdrop, the pace of vaccination assumes importance, however, several states are flagging shortages of the same.  Mumbai for instance announced halting vaccination programme for three days due to the non-availability of vaccine stock. Such instances might unsettle market bulls who are banking on the vaccination drive to pull India out of the Covid crisis. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will chair a meeting of the Union Council of Ministers on Friday to discuss the prevailing Covid situation in the country. The meeting, to be held virtually on Friday morning, could also be attended by some top government officials besides Union ministers, according to the report. On the global market front, US stocks rose to a record as investors digested the latest batch of corporate earnings and data that showed the American economy gained steam in the first three months of the year. The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, the Nasdaq 100 added 0.5% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7%. However, Asian markets failed to mirror the sentiment and started on a weak note as China’s crackdown on technology firms dented sentiment. While Japan's Nikkei index was steady, Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.6%, Hang Seng Index slid 1.2%  and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 0.6%. S&P futures also declined 0.2%. Apart from news on the Covid front and global cues, exit poll outcome may also hold sway over market mood. Pollsters have given an edge to the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal, a clean sweep for the DMK-led alliance and CPI(M)-led LDF in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, respectively. BJP is likely to retain Assam and Puducherry. Votes will be counted on 2 May. Now, a look at the stock-specific triggers that are likely to guide the market today A total of 27 companies are slated to post their March quarter numbers including Reliance Industries, IndusInd Bank, YES Bank, Marico and Can Fin Homes. Mukesh Ambani-led RIL is expected to witness an increase of 8 per cent (on average) in its consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) in the March quarter (Q4), led by a strong improvement in the profit of Jio, its telecom business. The Street is expecting a solid bottom-line growth, with up to 261 per cent year-on-year gain in net profit for IndusInd Bank. The operating metrics may weaken and remain subdued due to lower other income. Titan reported a 66% year-on-year (YoY) rise in consolidated net profit at Rs 568 crore for the March quarter of FY21. Its margins, however, contracted to 10.9% from 13% posted in the same quarter last year. Ambuja Cement's profit jumped 71% YoY to Rs 947.21 as against Rs 554.25 crore posted in the corresponding quarter a year ago. The revenue climbed 23% YoY to Rs 7,714.81 crore. A special resolution to appoint Samit Ghosh as CEO of Ujjivan Financial Services Ltd. was defeated as it didn’t get the requisite share of votes. Lastly, an update on the primary market. The IPO by PowerGrid InvIT received a 10% subscription on the first day of the share sale. The issue closed on May 3.

Stock-specific action following the Q4 earnings announcement by top Indian companies along with global cues and Covid-19 related developments are likely to guide the market action in Wednesday's session. At 7.40 am, SGX Nifty was ruling 23 points higher at 14,682, indicating a positive start for the benchmark indices. Some caution ahead of the US Fed policy outcome, however, cannot be ruled out.   Meanwhile, India in the last 24 hours reported 3,62,770 fresh Covid cases, with deaths over 3,000 - both being the highest so far. It is for the seventh straight day that India has reported over 3 lakh Covid cases. With the pandemic showing no signs of abating and strict restrictions imposed by states in place to curb the pandemic, findings by brokerage Nomura that India’s business activity likely suffered its steepest weekly fall in over a year in the seven days ended April 25, might not sit well with investors. On the global market front, tepid results from Tesla and 3M weighed on Wall Street on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow ending near flat as investors focused on the wave of earnings reports from Microsoft, Alphabet and other corporate heavyweights. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.01% while the S&P 500 lost 0.02% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.34%. Asian stocks were steady in early trade following a renewed rise in Treasury yields to above 1.6% and a jump in commodity prices, with investors also cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Japan’s Topix Index rose 0.2%, South Korea’s Kospi Index was down 0.9% and China’s Shanghai Composite Index was steady. That apart, OPEC, Russia and their allies agreed to stick to plans to raise output slightly from May 1, suggesting they don't see a lasting impact on demand from India's coronavirus crisis. Brent crude ended the session up 1.2% at $66.42 a barrel after climbing to a session high of $66.51. In early trade, Brent was trading 0.3% lower at $66.17. Now, a look at the stock-specific triggers that are likely to guide the market today A total of 21 companies are slated to post their March quarter results today including Bajaj Finserv, Biocon, Mastek and Bombay Dyeing & Manufacturing. Axis Bank reported a return to profit at Rs 2,677 crore in the quarter ended March 2021 due to a sharp fall in provisions. The lender had reported a standalone net loss of Rs 1,388 crore in the year-ago period. FMCG major Britannia Industries reported a 3 per cent YoY decline in consolidated net profit at Rs 360.07 crore in the fourth quarter ended March 31, impacted by rising in commodity prices. It was after 6 quarters that Britannia reported a decline in profit. Bajaj Finance's consolidated profit jumped 42 per cent YoY to Rs 1,347 crore for the fourth quarter of the fiscal ended March 2021. The company's net profit stood at Rs 948 crore in the January-March period of the preceding fiscal year 2019-20. Info Edge said it will sell stake worth Rs 750 crore in the initial public offering (IPO) of its investee company Zomato.

The domestic market ended in the red for the week-ended April 23, amid concerns over record jump in Covid cases, increasing lockdown-like restrictions across states and the sombre global market mood. Both Sensex and Nifty declined nearly 2% for the week. Going into the trade this week, analysts expect the nervousness among traders may continue and do not see the volatility easing out. March quarterly earnings, Covid-19 related updates and global trends are among key factors that are likely to guide the market this week, while the monthly expiry of April derivatives contracts will keep the traders on their toes. Besides, movement in rupee, crude and FII flows could also have a bearing on the market trajectory. As D-Street enters the thick of the earnings season, nearly 130 companies are slated to post their March quarter numbers this week, including some big names like Reliance Industries, HUL, Tech Mahindra, Axis Bank, Maruti, Bajaj Auto, Titan and IndusInd Bank. Besides earnings, Covid-related developments will remain on the market participants’ radar. The pandemic is worsening in the country while a lack of oxygen is adding to the mounting death toll. India is reporting 3 lakh Covid cases almost every day, a record seen by no country in the world. If the trend persists, it could further dent market sentiment. That apart, the pace of vaccination will also be eyed. Amid rising Covid cases, the pace of FPI outflows has also gathered steam. So far in the month of April, they have been net sellers to the tune of over Rs 7,600 crore, after having a robust buying in the previous six months. The selling by FPIs could lead to further caution and volatility in the market. Meanwhile, on the data front, investors will track the core sector data that will be unveiled on April 30 which may result in some stock-specific movement. Auto stocks are likely to be in focus on Friday ahead of the release of April auto sales figures on May 1. US GDP data for Q1 is also slated to be out this week. Lastly, the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting, slated for April 27-28, is one of the key factors globally to watch out for this week. Experts largely expect Fed Chair Jerome Powell to keep its interest rates near zero levels and continue with the bond purchases plan. However, a change in rates can have a bearing on emerging markets like India. And now, let's take a look at the trade setup for today. Stocks in Asia drifted higher as investors look for clues on the economic recovery in a big earnings week and a Federal Reserve meeting. Japan's Topix index was flat, South Korea's Kospi index rose 0.5% and Shanghai Composite Index added 0.3%. U.S. futures were little changed after most major groups in the S&P 500 advanced Friday. Tracking positive Asian cues, Indian markets looked set to open on a firm footing with SGX Nifty ruling 57 points higher at 14,397, around 7.30 am. On the stock-specific front, a total of 15 companies are slated to post their quarterly earnings today such as Tech Mahindra, SBI Card, HDFC Life. Tech Mahindra is likely to post modest revenue growth in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2020-21, believe analysts, led by seasonal strength in Comviva, an entity acquired by the firm in 2012, and improving traction in the manufacturing, BFSI and technology segments. ICICI Bank reported a nearly four-fold jump in its March quarter consolidated profit to Rs 4,886 crore as against Rs 1,251 crore in the year-ago period, and spoke of “calibrating” growth in the near term given the second wave of COVID-19 infections. HCL Technologies on Friday posted a 6.1 per cent decline in consolidated net profit in March quarter to Rs 2,962 crore but said it is confident of logging double-digit growth in FY22 revenue on the back of a strong deal pipeline. Srei Equipment Finance, a subsidiary of Srei Infrastructure Finance, has received an expression of interest for equity infusion of an undisclosed am

In today's episode of compounding lifestyle, Oil slips as Suez Canal ship re-floated, The Market Recovery, and Joe Biden's Unveiling Infrastructure Program. The stranded ship is holding up an estimated $9.6bn of trade along the waterway each day. That equates to $400m and 3.3 million tonnes of cargo an hour, or $6.7m a minute. The true damage and cost are difficult to evaluate until the ship is freed and trade resumes, but many firms will have to make critical decisions if the blockage continues for another week. On Friday, all three major benchmarks rallied to their session highs into the close with the blue-chip Dow closing about 450 points higher. The S&P 500 eventually climbed 1.7% to hit a record closing high. The Nasdaq Composite wiped out a 0.8% loss and ended Friday 1.2% higher. Traders are bracing for heightened volatility during this holiday-shortened week with quarter-end rebalancing among pension funds and other big investors. The recent swift advance in bond yields could set up money managers for big adjustments in their portfolios. Investors are awaiting updates from President Joe Biden about his infrastructure plan which could cost north of $3 trillion. The president is expected to unveil his plan when he travels to Pittsburgh on Wednesday. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Sunday Biden plans to roll out two packages in the coming months, the first covering infrastructure and the second covering health and family care. Some key events to watch this week: President Biden is expected to unveil his infrastructure program Wednesday. EIA crude inventory report Wednesday. OPEC+ meets to discuss production levels for May on Thursday. China Caixin PMI due Thursday. U.S. employment report for March on Friday. Good Friday starts the Easter weekend in countries including the U.S., U.K., France, Germany, Australia, and Canada. These are some of the main moves in financial markets: Stocks S&P 500 futures slipped 0.7% as of 7:02 a.m. in London. The S&P 500 Index climbed 1.7% Friday. Japan's Topix Index added 0.5%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.4%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index lost 0.3%. China's Shanghai Composite Index added 0.4%. Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.1%. Currencies The yen was at 109.48 per dollar, up 0.1%. The offshore yuan was at 6.5591 per dollar, down 0.3%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged up 0.2%. The euro traded at $1.1775, down 0.2%. Bonds The yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped about four basis points 1.64%. Australia's 10-year bond yield climbed about three basis points to 1.69%. Commodities West Texas Intermediate crude shed 2.3% to reach $59.60 a barrel. Gold was at $1,727.40 an ounce, down 0.3%. $XOM $TSLA $AAL $BNGO $MARA $O $CRWD $FB $AAPL $FCEL $MGM $GOOGL $EZGO $SHOP $MTCH $DIS $PDD $ $TWTR $MVIS $PLTR $BFLY $ENZC $GM $ABNB $BUZZ $PTON $TDOC $DDD $U check for Coin Base IPO share prices are $200 estimated release date is late February or early April 2021 Control the Cash balance today and position yourself accordingly. Let's GO!!!!! Research Links: www.Finviz.com www.Nasdaq.com Learn more about options: https://tinyurl.com/Compounding-Lifestyle Music-Bob Ross goes to Hollywood- Boratic Voice Mail link, show us some love, call in to ask questions: https://anchor.fm/compounding-lifestyle/message (copy/paste the URL) Robinhood link: https://join.robinhood.com/arristw DISCLAIMER: These Podcasts are for educational purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be construed as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any sort of security or investment. Consult with a professional financial advisor before making any financial decisions. Do your research and due diligence. --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/compounding-lifestyle/message Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/compounding-lifestyle/support

Breaking away from two-straight sessions of bear hammering, bulls were back in action on Dalal Street. Parked near the day's high, the benchmark indices ended Friday's session with over one per cent gains amid healthy buying in metal, financial, and auto stocks. The Nifty Metal index ended nearly 4 per cent higher, while the Nifty Financial Services, FMCG, and Auto indices ended with around 2 per cent gains. Realty, bank, pharma and IT indices, meanwhile, advanced up to 1.5 per cent. Among the benchmark indices, the frontline S&P BSE Sensex closed with gains of 568 points, or 1.17 per cent, at 49,008 level. The broader Nifty, on the other hand, reclaimed the 14,500-mark on a closing basis and settled at 14,507 level, up 182.4 points or 1.27 per cent. Bajaj Finserv, Asian Paints, HUL, Titan Company, Bajaj Auto, and HDFC were leading the list of gainers on the Sensex, up between 2.7 per cent and 4.4 per cent. Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, and Adani Ports were the additional gainers on the Nifty with up to 6 per cent returns today. On the downside, PowerGrid, IndusInd Bank, ITC, Maruti Suzuki, UPL, and TCS declined the most on the benchmark indices, down up to 2 per cent. Debuting at the bourses, shares of Kalyan Jewellers listed at at Rs 73.90, 15 per cent below its issue price of Rs 87 per share on the BSE today. The stock, however, reversed losses and hit a high of Rs 81 in the intra-day trade before closing at Rs 75.3. Those of Suryoday Small Finance Bank listed at a 4 per cent discount, at Rs 292 on the BSE, as against an issue price of Rs 305. The stock hit an intra-day low of Rs 271 but ended at Rs 276. Recently listed Laxmi Organic, however, jumped 18 per cent to Rs 194 in intra-day trade after foreign portfolio investors bought over three million equity shares worth about Rs 50 crore of the company via the open market. On Thursday, Goldman Sachs India Fund Limited and Plutus Wealth Management LLP purchased a combined 3.17 million equity shares of Laxmi Organic Industries for Rs 49 crore. The FPIs purchased these shares at an average price of Rs 155.60 per share on the NSE. That apart, shares of Tata Group companies rallied up to 6 per cent on the BSE today after the Supreme Court pronounced its verdict in favour of Tata Sons in the high-profile Tata vs Mistry case. The top court ruled in favour of Tata Sons, allowing its appeals and dismissing the Pallonji Group's plea. Among individual stocks, Tata Steel rallied 6 per cent on the BSE while Tata Steel Bsl, Indian Hotels, Tata Motors, Tata Power, Titan Company, Tata Coffee, Tata Investment Corporation and Tata Communications ended higher in the range of 3 per cent to 5 per cent. In another corporate development, shares of M&M ended 1 per cent higher at Rs 801, after hitting a low of Rs 792 on the BSE, as Mahindra and Mahindra's board of directors appointed Anish Shah as the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the company, effective April 2, 2021. Pawan Goenka will retire as the MD and CEO, and Member of the Board of Directors of M&M. Overall, the S&P BSE MidCap index ended 1.66 per cent higher, while the SmallCap counterpart closed with a per cent gain. In the primary market, Barbeque Nation Hospitality's IPO was subscribed by nearly 6 times till about 4 PM on the last day of the issue. Global markets   Asian stocks recovered from a three-month low on Friday, as investors focused more on optimism about the global economic recovery than rising tensions between the West and China. MSCI’s ex-Japan Asia index rose 1.43 per cent, as the Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.53 per cent, snapping a three-day losing streak. Japan’s Nikkei also rose 1.47 per cent. In Europe, the pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.8 per cent. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures, meanwhile, were trading with 0.25 per cent gain each. Note: Markets shall remain closed on Monday, March 29, on account of Holi.

Experienced audiences would know that since the launch of this channel , I have been firmly optimistic about the prospects of China's rise, and firmly believe that it would create tremendous opportunities for the world.In the stock market, the Shanghai Composite Index has exceeded 3,600 points; in the foreign exchange market, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has appreciated to 6.48. In terms of global capital investment orientation, China surpassed the United States in 2020 and became the world's largest destination of foreign direct investment. The international investment to Mainland China alone was 163 billion U.S. dollars, while the U.S. was 134 billion U.S. dollars. Just a year ago, the U.S. received foreign investment as high as 251 billion U.S. dollars, while China ranked second with 140 billion U.S. dollars.Although this change in foreign investment is due to the epidemic, in the long run, the epidemic has accelerated the rise of China and the decline of the United States. In a sense, it can be said that the current positive outlook on China is similar to that on  Britain in the early 18th century, and on America in the early 20th century.I felt the unstoppable trend of the times. This not only can alleviate the anxiety caused by short-term fluctuations in different industries, but it also gives us a sense of historical participation to witness the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Look farther and broaden your mind, and you will find that the present is the best era!Tesla's Shanghai plant was put into production, Exxon Mobil and BASF's 10 billion-dollar projects started, Starbucks and Wal-Mart accelerated the opening of stores in China, BlackRock and JPMorgan Chase continued to increase their holdings of Chinese assets... In the turmoil world, global entrepreneurs and investors are determined to invest more in China.China Explained will show you that because of China's continued success in industrial upgrading, technological innovation and realizing its huge potential, it is an unstoppable process. The inevitable rise of China may feel intimidating and some simply reject it. Don't be. China's rise is part of the new global trend unlike what we have seen in the past one hundred years. Embrace the change and seize the opportunity.Creating original content is hard work, your support is what keeps me going. Please donate to this channel: paypal.me/ChinaExplained

The Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 36 points or 1.1% to 3,242 on Monday at around 02:15 PM Shanghai time, amid mounting fears over the development of COVID-19. China reported 20 new confirmed and 161 new asymptomatic virus cases Sunday following a surge in symptomless infections in the northwestern Xinjiang region. In the US, White House chief of staff Mark Meadows suggested that the country could not get control of the pandemic.--- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/newscast-africa/support

The Shanghai Composite Index surged over 2% Monday, after the People Bank of China tweaked foreign exchange policy. The central bank announced Saturday that financial institutions now no longer need to set aside cash when conducting some forex forwards trading. Stocks also jumped in Hong Kong while rose modestly in Australia. The Nikkei 225 fell, however, on concerns about upcoming earnings reports.--- This episode is sponsored by · Afrolit Podcast: Hosted by Ekua PM, Afrolit shares the stories of multi-faceted Africans one episode at a time. https://open.spotify.com/show/2nJxiiYRyfMQlDEXXpzlZS?si=mmgODX3NQ-yfQvR0JRH-WASupport this podcast: https://anchor.fm/newscast-africa/support

The Shanghai Composite Index was down 9 points or 0.3% to 3,286 on Wednesday at around 01:00 PM Shanghai time, ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision later and quarterly economic updates later in the day, with the healthcare sector falling the most after the Chinese health authority reported 12 new COVID-19 cases today, up from eight a day earlier. --- This episode is sponsored by · Afrolit Podcast: Hosted by Ekua PM, Afrolit shares the stories of multi-faceted Africans one episode at a time. https://open.spotify.com/show/2nJxiiYRyfMQlDEXXpzlZS?si=mmgODX3NQ-yfQvR0JRH-WA Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/newscast-africa/support

The benchmark indices ended over half a per cent higher on Tuesday, led by buying in financial counters.  The S&P BSE Sensex ended 288 points, or 0.74 per cent higher at 39,044 levels, with IndusInd Bank (up nearly 5 per cent) being the top gainer and Titan (down around 1.5 per cent) the biggest loser.  HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries (RIL), ICICI Bank, HDFC, and Axis Bank were the major contributors to the Sensex's gain. Of 30 constituents, 21 advanced and the rest 9 declined.  NSE's Nifty50 ended at 11,522, up 82 points, or 0.71 per cent. India VIX dropped nearly 4 per cent to 20.39 levels.  Meanwhile, the broader market continued to outperform the frontline indices. The S&P BSE SmallCap index settled nearly 1.5 per cent higher at 15,363.57 levels while the S&P BSE MidCap index ended at 15,015, up 127 points, or 0.85 per cent. On the sectoral front, pharma stocks rallied the most. The Nifty Pharma index ended nearly 2 per cent higher at 11,450.50 levels. Nifty Private Bank index gained 1.85 per cent to 12,431.90 levels while Nifty Bank added 1.65 per cent to 22,466 points. On the other hand, Nifty Realty slipped the most - down over 0.7 per cent to 221 levels.  Buzzing stocks Shares of Adani Green Energy (AGEL) hit a fresh record high of Rs 670.65 on the BSE, thereby entering the elite club of firms with Rs 1 trillion market-capitalisation (m-cap). The firm joins the ranks of Titan Company, UltraTech Cement, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Larsen & Toubro (L&T), and Avenue Supermarts. READ MORE  Hexaware Technologies advanced over 6 per cent to Rs 451 on the BSE, extending its previous day's 2 per cent gain, ahead of the closure of its delisting offer today. READ MORE   Shares of Tata Motors Differential Voting Rights (DVRs) continued their northward movement, hitting an over six-month high of Rs 63.95, up 5 per cent in intra-day trade on the BSE. In the past six-weeks, it has rallied 63 per cent, as against 3 per cent rise in the S&P BSE Sensex. The stock settled at Rs 63.65.  Global markets World stocks rose on Tuesday on the back of upbeat Chinese data and optimism about novel coronavirus vaccines, as a struggling dollar kept the hot streaks for the euro and some of the biggest emerging market currencies sizzling. In Asia, China stocks ended higher. The blue-chip CSI300 index rose 0.8 per cent to 4,688.48, while the Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.5 per cent to 3,295.68. China’s industrial output accelerated the most in eight months in August, while retail sales grew for the first time this year, suggesting the economic recovery is gathering pace. In commodities, oil prices edged slightly higher but forecasts of a slower than expected recovery in global fuel demand due to the coronavirus pandemic weighed.

The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 16 points or 0.5% to 3,341 on Monday at around 01:30 PM Shanghai time. Investors were nervous over growing tensions on technology matter between Beijing and Washington as US President Donald Trump is considering adding China's top chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International in blacklist. --- This episode is sponsored by · Afrolit Podcast: Hosted by Ekua PM, Afrolit shares the stories of multi-faceted Africans one episode at a time. https://open.spotify.com/show/2nJxiiYRyfMQlDEXXpzlZS?si=mmgODX3NQ-yfQvR0JRH-WA Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/newscast-africa/support

The Shanghai Composite Index gave up its early gains and fell 14 points or 0.4% to 3,398 on Wednesday at around 01:30 PM Shanghai time, dragged by basic material stocks and energy. The financial sector was also under pressure, as the first-half profit fall in some of the Chinese biggest lenders weighed. Sentiment was hurt by reports that the US extended China tariff exclusions for some goods, including medical masks and smartwatches, --- This episode is sponsored by · Afrolit Podcast: Hosted by Ekua PM, Afrolit shares the stories of multi-faceted Africans one episode at a time. https://open.spotify.com/show/2nJxiiYRyfMQlDEXXpzlZS?si=mmgODX3NQ-yfQvR0JRH-WA Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/newscast-africa/support

Market futures never did point down last evening, and I woke up very early eastern time to futures pointing up 450 points. After a cup of coffee I realized that China's market was up a stunning 5.7% today alone. Consider this for those mystified by the actions of the U.S. stock market: the Shanghai Composite Index is now the highest it has been since early 2018. We live in crazy times. Anyways, the Dow opened up big, and traded between +300 and +400 most of the day, and closed right near the high of the day, up +460 points. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

CHAPTER 1

The Chinese stock market recorded their worst trading day since 2015 when the Shanghai Composite Index opened this morning and gave investors the opportunity to react to the coronavirus outbreak.  Markets plunged 8% this morning, prompting concerns about how the novel coronavirus outbreak is affecting the economy.    Chinese officials have confirmed there are now over 17,000 cases of the coronavirus in China, and the Philippines have now recorded the first death of the novel coronavirus outside of China.    How will this decline in the Chinese stock market affect other markets? Jeffrey Sandler is a Portfolio Strategist with Linton Wealth Management for Raymond James, and he joins us with the details…     Guest: Jeffrey Sandler Portfolio Strategist, Linton Wealth Management

>> Market recovers after 2% slide in the previous session, Sensex climbs 162 points; >> Auto major Maruti to stop production at Gurugram, Manesar plants for two days; and  >> Silver opens above Rs 50,000 a kg in Mumbai, gold at Rs 39,000-plus Buying in select blue-chip counters such as HDFC twins, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India (SBI) and Infosys helped benchmark indices to settle in the positive territory on Wednesday. The broader market sentiment, however, remained subdued amid disappointing macro data, continuous decline in auto sales and weak global cues. The S&P BSE Sensex gained 162 points or 0.44 per cent to settle at 36,725, with Bharti Airtel (up 3 per cent) being the top gainer and Maruti (down 4 per cent) the biggest loser.  On NSE, the benchmark Nifty50 index closed at 10,845, up 47 points or 0.43 per cent. Out of 50 constituents, 30 advanced while 20 declined. India VIX, the volatility gauge, slipped around 5 per cent to 17.22-mark. In the broader market, the S&P BSE MidCap index added 18 points, or 0.14 per cent, to end at 13,264 levels, while the S&P BSE SmallCap index closed at 12,406, up 36 points or 0.29 per cent.  Among individual stocks, Sun Pharma ended over 3 per cent down at Rs 426.40 apiece on the BSE after reports suggested that Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has ordered a forensic audit against the company to look into allegations of financial irregularities and lapses in corporate governance standards. And, now let's take a look at the global markets -  Stocks followed a firmer Chinese lead on Wednesday after a report showed growth in the country’s service sector accelerating despite broader economic headwinds, while the pound halted its decline on hopes a no-deal Brexit may yet be averted. The Shanghai Composite Index added 0.3 per cent while the blue-chip CSI300 index gained 0.25 per cent. MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan snapped two days of losses and gained 0.6 per cent.

Adviser Investments Chief Investment Officer Jim Lowell has the market analysis for Friday, May 10. All major U.S. indexes closed the day with slight gains to reverse a five-day losing streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 rose 0.4% and the and NASDAQ Composite gained 0.1%. Similarly, the Shanghai Composite Index advanced 3% as investors in both the U.S. and China expressed optimism that trade negotiations are continuing—despite the 12:01 a.m. tariff increase on $200 billion of Chinese goods. Meanwhile, Uber launched its much-anticipated I.P.O. as its stock fell more than 7% in intra-day trading, with the company’s valuation falling from $75.5 billion to $69.7 billion.

Overnight, the Shanghai Composite Index in China fell by nearly 7% in a single trading session, triggering circuit breakers and a domino effect that spread all over Europe. And now, 1 hour before the open of US financial markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is set for a triple-digit decline at the open. Who knows what will actually happen. Are you ready for carnage in stocks? Here’s how to protect yourself RIGHT AWAY… and banish these concerns permanently. I’m Bryan Ellis. This is Episode #180.----Hello, SDI Nation! Welcome to the podcast of record for savvy self-directed investors like you!It’s not a new thing, people… market upheaval in China spreads to Europe, dooming U.S. markets to a substantially lower open and substantially higher prospect of a bloody day on Wall Street.Now we don’t know what is actually going to happen. Could be one of those yoyo days on Wall Street where the averages bounce all over the place and end up higher. Or, it could do something very, very different… much worse… something that many people think this market is overdue for……and that’s a scary prospect.This brings to mind a text I got from a client 3 weeks ago, on December 18. That day, the Dow had fallen by over 4% in a single day. Around 4:30, I got a text from one of my favorite clients, Paul, who said “Yet another day I am glad I have a self directed 401k that is not reliant on the stock market. Thank you for all your hard work.”I really, really appreciated that text… thank you, Paul!... and it lends some context to this day.Why?Because right now, Dow Jones futures are set to open down by about 300 points. Again, things change rapidly and that could be resolved by the time the open rolls around in about an hour, but… probably not.Why is that relevant? Well, the Dow has, so far, failed to recover the losses it made on December 18 when Paul sent that very kind text to me. And with an open of 300 points to the down side, the Dow is going to fall even farther than it fell on that awful day 3 weeks ago.And still, Paul is sitting pretty. Why? He gets a very solid rate of return every single month. In fact, Paul doesn’t know this yet – unless he’s listening… and I’ll bet he is… Hi Paul! – but Paul’s ROI numbers are going to go up even more soon… and there’s simply no stress involved in making the strong returns he’s making.How?It’s like this: Paul is getting paid EVERY SINGLE MONTH… reliably… and safely. He’s doing that by lending his investment capital at very attractive rates of return… and he’s made his money safe by getting great collateral.In fact, he’s OVER-collateralized. That means that every dollar he has invested is protected by $1.50 in collateral. Paul’s collateral is real estate in very strong markets and because of his collateral position, those markets would have to be slashed by 1/3 of it’s value before Paul’s collateral was at risk.So let’s be clear, it absolutely IS possible for real estate to fall by that much. It happened in several markets during the real estate collapse of 07 and 08. But you know what? Even in that case… in the worst of the worst scenario… which, by the way, was Las Vegas, Nevada… even in that case it took a whopping 2 YEARS from the market’s high point before it fell by one third… and that was in one of the very the worst real estate market routes in history.And you know what? Had Paul been involved in that situation… he could have seen what was coming and gotten out. Heck, he could have dilly-dallied for 6 months, even a year, and THEN sold his collateral, and could have still gotten exactly the ROI he was planning on from the beginning. That is powerful, my friends.How about your stock portfolio? What’s your collateral? You guessed it: It’s NOTHING. Nothing at all, not a single penny of anything.But Paul? Paul is solid. The kind of investments Paul makes yields from 7 or 8 to a high of 10-13%... and is still incredibly well collateralized. And it’s TOTALLY stress free. It’s simple. It’s safe. It’s strong. That’s all there is to it.Oh, by the way… the U.S. Stock Market has opened since I started working on this episode. As of right now, the Dow is down about 400 points. What does that mean for your portfolio?Paul probably doesn’t even know this has happened. It’s not that he’s not informed. It’s just that that volatility you’re feeling… it’s not relevant to Paul. He doesn’t care, because he doesn’t have to.What about you, my friends? Would you like to make really, really solid returns – and do so in a way where you are PROTECTED from market volatility using a PREDICTABLY PROFITABLE strategy?If so, I’d love to tell you more about it. In fact, this Thursday, I’m offering a free webinar training that is 100% LIVE… I’ll be on there personally to provide some great info to you, and to answer your questions... and to show you how – just by adjusting your strategy a bit – you can go from simply hoping for the best to being PREDICTABLY PROFITABLE.This webinar training is FREE to you as a listener to Self Directed Investor Radio. To reserve your spot, just go over to SDIRadio.com/predictable. Again, that’s SDIRadio.com/predictable.My friends, tomorrow is the inaugural episode of Self Directed Investor Success Stories… and you’re going to hear about a deal that closed for a client of mine in just the last couple of weeks… the results were… well let’s just say, this one deal – which was this client’s first experience with us – beat the VERY BEST annual return that the S&P 500 has ever had all throughout history… Yep. It was that good.So be sure to join us on this show tomorrow for this incredible success story and in the mean time, go over to SDIRadio.com/predictable to register for an EXTRAORDINARY training opportunity to learn to become PREDICTABLY PROFITABLE!My friends, invest wisely today, and live well forever! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Daily #Podcast: BBVA Bancomer Mexico and Gemalto announce first rollout of Dynamic Code Verification Solution, Bank of England challenges students to create a blockchain solution, Wechat launches mobile wallet in South Africa, China’s Shanghai Composite Index sinks 5.5 percent, Will Britain spend over 1 Billion Pounds on Black Friday?

Warning sirens are sounding as a result of an ominous indicator in the stock market and the devaluation of the Chinese currency.  But what does that mean practically for the self-directed investor?  I’m Bryan Ellis.  I’ll tell you what it means for you RIGHT NOW in Episode #114.---------Hello, my friends.  You’re listening to the podcast of record for savvy self-directed investors like you.  I’m truly grateful that you’re listening right now.  It’s so gratifying to see how you folks are helping us grow.  For the last week or so, I’ve been waking up to see that this podcast has already been downloaded as many times by 8:00am as was happening in an entire day as recently as 2 weeks ago.  The growth is just amazing… thank you, my friends.I’ll get to the information about the stock market and the Chinese currency in just a moment.  But I’d like to take a minute or two and make sure we’re all keeping our “eye on the ball” and are investing on PURPOSE rather than by default.Folks, a very positive consequence of the fact that this show is growing and succeeding is that I’m slowly honing the message that I want to drive home to you every single day.And one piece of that message is that the CORE VALUE of self-directed investors is this:  To respect your own capital.  Nobody else will do it for you.  That capital cost you time, energy and effort… or maybe it’s the result of the blood, sweat and tears of someone who cares about you.  Either way, the time, the energy, the effort it took for you to acquire it – the very LIFE it required for you to acquire it – makes that capital profoundly worthy of respect.And NOBODY will ever respect that capital more than you will.  Not your financial advisor.  Not the government.  Not anyone else.  That’s why we have to require… we have to DEMAND… that every investment choice we make stringently complies with the S3 Investing Standard of:  SIMPLE and SAFE and STRONG.But that’s not where the core values of self-directed investors end.  You see, there’s a core value #2 that I’d like to share with you right now, and it is this:Profit has purpose beyond build wealth.  It’s a means to an, not an end unto itself.Do you have clarity about YOUR purpose for the profit you’re making?  Certainly, part of your purpose is to create financial security for yourself and your loved ones, and that’s a central responsibility for you as a responsible adult.  But what about beyond that?  What about a broader, bigger purpose… maybe even a purpose that transcends just yourself and engages your entire family, maybe even for multiple generations?I’m not going to delve deeply into that topic today, but can I encourage you to think about that in the coming days.  I’ll address it more fully in coming episodes… but my friends, I will say this:  When there’s clear purpose for your profit beyond mere wealth building, the clarity with which you operate when making investment and financial decisions steps up another level.  Your perspective becomes greater, your point of view is more enlightened.  Basically, you become wiser.  And wisdom is among the highest objectives to which any of us can aspire.So, let this question simmer in your mind a bit:  What is the greater purpose for your profit?Now, let’s focus on building that profit a bit more, shall we?Folks, two very ominous events have occurred in recent days, and you need to understand them.First:  China has devalued their currency.And Second:  The death cross signal in U.S. stocks.Both of those things sound a bit wonky, so here’s what those things mean in plain language:About China’s currency:  The net effect of China’s currency being devalued is that Chinese goods will be less expensive, thus boosting sales and exports of Chinese goods, and in turn, the Chinese economy as a whole.  Currency devaluation is an artificial way to spur economic growth.  In effect, this is an acknowledgement from Beijing that trouble is brewing in China.You are aware, aren’t you, that the Chinese stock market experienced a major crash last month?  Over $3 TRILLION in value was wiped away in a single month.  About a third of the Shanghai Composite Index vanished in just a few weeks.  And if all of the comparisons of the Chinese market crash to the great crash of 1929 prove accurate, then the Chinese market has a lot farther to fall.Is this relevant to you?  Yes… particularly if you’re relying on Wall Street investments to grow your wealth.  To understand why, you have to look no farther than the long-time darling of Wall Street and the business world, Apple.Apple’s stock has been very weak this year, in large part due to the realization that the Chinese economy is weak.  Since China is Apple’s primary growth market, Apple’s future looks far less predictable than it’s past.  Thus, Apple’s stock has been very weak, plunging about 14% from its high of the year.So, follow the chain of events:  Weakness in China’s economy leads to stock market crash and currency devaluation, leading to lowered profit expectations from American companies (like Apple), leading to pressure on stock prices and declining markets overall, which leads to the second ominous issue of the day:The DEATH CROSS signal in the U.S. stock market.I won’t bore you with the details of the death cross, other than to say it’s one of those kinds of indicators that propeller-head types use to analyze and predict stock market movements.  The basic idea is that the long-term trend of the market is flattening out while the nearer-term trend has turned distinctly negative.  On a practical level, all it means is that more capital is flowing OUT of stocks than into them.This signal is certainly a negative indicator, no doubt about it.  But it’s not necessarily a kiss of death.  While there have been some times that this signal has materialized and the stock market continued upward, there have been a few times when it materialized and the stock market took a real bloodbath.But when considering the death cross in concert with the fact that China is finally beginning to admit to the weakness that all informed analysts already knew was there, well… it’s an ominous signal.Wow… all of that is complicated.  Very.The real point is this, my friends:  The stock market is not truly predictable… but the signals it’s giving aren’t positive.And remember this, my friends:  if you look back at the past 80 years – the average lifespan of an American – what you’ll see is that the average annual stock market increase during that time is in the 6 percent range.All of this volatility, unpredictability, and overwhelming risk… for a 6% average?My friends… you have better information… better knowledge… better opportunity.I want something better for you.Let me ask you something, my friends, and I ask this with utmost sincerity:Do you truly BUY IN to being a self-directed investor?  Remember – that means some… it means something specific.It means that you RESPECT your own capital.It means that your profit has purpose beyond wealth.So ask yourself, my friend… is it showing respect to your capital to accept that risk… that unpredictability… that volatility… for something that, in the long run, will equal to 6%?Will accepting such meager returns enable you to have enough profit for your purpose beyond mere wealth?There’s a better way, my friends.  Many better ways.If the time has come for you to think about transitioning OUT of the stock market – maybe even with just a portion of your portfolio – and into some options that are truly SIMPLE and SAFE and STRONG, I’d be delighted to talk with you.Just go to SDIRadio.com/guidance and pick a time.  Or if you’re not in front of a computer, just text the word GUIDANCE to 33444.  Again, go to SDIRadio.com/guidance or text the word GUIDANCE to 33444.My friends…  I appreciate you.  Would you do me a favor?  It’s this: Invest wisely today, and live well forever! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

The Shanghai Composite Index has closed below the 2-thousand-point mark for the first time in five-and-a-half months. The decline came after authorities① brought in a trading halt② brought on by an initial③ public offering. An industrial valve manufacturer, Neway Valve's shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange opened around 20 percent over the offering price. Its price then continued upward④ by as much as 32 percent in the morning session, prompting a temporary halt to trading. The Shanghai benchmark eventually⑤ ended down 0.7 percent to close at 1991 points on Monday. Eight companies are due to debut in Shenzhen when the market opens this morning. For more on this, we are joined live on the line by Gao Shang, analyst⑥ with Guantong Futures. 1. authorities 当局 2. halt 停止 3. initial 最初的 4. upward 向上的 5. eventually 最终 6. analyst 分析师

October_10th_2012.mp3 Economy Shanghaied    Global economic activity is the key to shift pessimistic forecasts to a more optimistic outlook. Shanghai Composite Index (Click For Larger Picture) The European crisis has toned down but is a long way from producing impressive economic results for some time. The U.S. economy is stuck in a political shoot out that will drag out to the last second of the Presidential election and whoever wins is still likely to have little improvement for the balance of 2012. The wild card is China, the International Monetary Fund predicted China's economy, the World's second-biggest, will "soft land" by growing 7.8 percent this year and 8.2 percent next year, boosted by interest rate cuts in June and July. China has targeted growth of 7.5 percent this year. Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index moved above its 20 and 50 day moving averages and showed early signs of outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index. Strength follows news that the Chinese government added $40 billion of monetary stimulus just prior to the Golden Week celebrated last week. GDP growth will likely be between 7% and the official target of 7.5% a long way from a recession. There are many opportunities to make money but it requires action on your part, each stock selected must show risk/reward of at least 2:1. Make the call - let me provide you with a unique perspective on your investments through a no-obligation consultation. Contact me by filling out the 'Unique Perspective' form on the Contact page, or by calling at 1-204-982-0633. Before trading, please contact an investment professional. Some information contained in this blog may no longer be time relevant, please use your own due diligence when investing.