Podcasts about increasing returns

My guest today is Eric Beinhocker, Professor of Practice in Public Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford, and the founder and Executive Director of the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the University's Oxford Martin School. Eric is the author of numerous academic articles and books, including The Origin of Wealth: Evolution, Complexity, and the Radical Remaking of Economics (2007). In our conversation, Eric and I contrast traditional economics (neoclassical theory) with new economics (complexity economics). We also explore the policy implications of these differing economic theories, discussing topics ranging from aggressive growth strategies to complexity catastrophes in digital economies. I hope you enjoy our conversation. References: The origin of wealth: Evolution, complexity, and the radical remaking of economics (2007) ⁠https://moldham74.github.io/AussieCAS/papers/Origins⁠ of Wealth.pdf Getting Big Too Fast: Strategic Dynamics with Increasing Returns and Bounded Rationality (2007) ⁠https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/pdf/10.1287/mnsc.1060.0673⁠ Fair Social Contracts and the Foundations of Large-Scale Collaboration (2022) ⁠https://oms-inet.files.svdcdn.com/staging/files/Fair-Social-Contracts-Beinhocker-v8-22-22.pdf⁠ Reflexivity, complexity, and the nature of social science (2013) ⁠https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1350178X.2013.859403⁠

In today's episode, I share a strategy to supercharge depreciation in your deals by introducing a senior class of shares. We discuss how structuring Class A shares can create more depreciation for other investors while boosting returns for LPs and GPs alike. Tune in now to learn how to make your deals more attractive and pencil out in today's lending environment. Interested in investing with Asym Capital? Check out our webinar.   Please note that investing in private placement securities entails a high degree of risk, including illiquidity of the investment and loss of principal. Please refer to the subscription agreement for a discussion of risk factors. Tired of scrambling for capital?  Check out our new FREE webinar -  How to Ensure You Never Scramble for Capital Again (The 3 Capital-Raising Secrets). Click Here to register.   CFC Podcast Facebook Group

My guest today is Michael Mauboussin (@mjmauboussin), one of the world's leading experts in finance. Michael serves as Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley. He has authored three books and regularly appears in the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, New York Times, and other publications. Since 1993, Michael has been an adjunct professor of finance at Columbia Business School and is also the chairman emeritus of the board of trustees at the Santa Fe Institute. In our conversation, we delve into the dynamics of markets, discuss all sorts of increasing returns, and explore topics such as Charles Darwin, policymaking, AI and Web3, and the Santa Fe Institute. I hope you enjoy our discussion. Find me on X at @⁠ProfSchrepel⁠⁠⁠⁠. Also, be sure to subscribe to the Scaling Theory podcast. ** References: Michael J. Mauboussin & Dan Callahan, "Increasing Returns: Identifying Forms of Increasing Returns and What Drives Them" (2024) https://perma.cc/Y3DN-LNMY Michael J. Mauboussin & Dan Callahan, "Stock Market Concentration: How Much Is Too Much?" (2024) https://perma.cc/7EEX-ZY9T Charles Darwin, The Autobiography of Charles Darwin: 1809-1882 https://www.amazon.com/Autobiography-Charles-Darwin-1809-1882/dp/0393310698  David Warsh, Knowledge and the Wealth of Nations: A Story of Economic Discovery (2007) https://www.amazon.com/Knowledge-Wealth-Nations-Economic-Discovery/dp/0393329887 James Bessen, The New Goliaths: How Corporations Use Software to Dominate Industries, Kill Innovation, and Undermine Regulation (2022) https://www.amazon.nl/-/en/James-Bessen/dp/0300255047 Chris Dixon, Read Write Own: Building the Next Era of the Internet (2023) https://readwriteown.com Anu Bradford, Digital Empires: The Global Battle to Regulate Technology (2023) https://global.oup.com/academic/product/digital-empires-9780197649268 Kenneth J. Arrow, "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing" (1962) https://www.jstor.org/stable/2295952 J. Doyne Farmer, Making Sense of Chaos (2024) https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/284357/making-sense-of-chaos-by-farmer-j-doyne/9780241201978

Invest Like the Best Key Takeaways  The question to consider: Does AI help the strong get stronger, or does AI allow for new businesses to emerge and disrupt the incumbents? The top five technology companies are spending 2x on capital expenditure than the top five energy companies Companies should strive to increase the consumer's willingness to pay“Regulation is the friend of the incumbent.” – Bill Gurley Venture capital is one of the few asset classes that has high persistence: the past winners tend to be future winnersDevelop a framework that allows you to benefit from the group dynamics of pattern recognition, but that does not tie you to one specific type of pattern Instead of nit-picking how an investment may fail, make the primary focus of the discussion: “How big could this be?” Investors must capture the extreme events if they wish to outperform The sharpest minds desire to know where they are wrong about something Read the full notes @ podcastnotes.orgMy guests today are Bill Gurley and Michael Mauboussin. Bill is a General Partner at Benchmark, and Michael is the Head of Consilient Research for Counterpoint Global. While they are longtime friends with one another, I'd never heard them appear somewhere together so it was a real treat to be able to do this with the two of them. They are two of the leading minds in their fields, and we combined their decades of expertise into one wide-ranging conversation. We discuss the different kinds of increasing returns to scale, the issue of regulatory capture, AI, and hardware. Please enjoy this great conversation with Bill Gurley and Michael Mauboussin. Listen to Founders Podcast For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the only investment research platform built for the investor. With traditional research vendors, the diligence process is slow, fragmented, and expensive. That leaves investors competing on how well they can aggregate data — not on their unique ability to analyze insights and make great investment decisions. Tegus offers an end-to-end platform with all the data you need to get up to speed on a company or market: up-to-the-minute financials, customizable models, management and culture checks, and, of course, our vast and growing library of expert call transcripts. Tegus is changing the world of expert research. Learn more and get your free trial at tegus.com/patrick. ----- Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.  Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes: (00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best (00:03:38) Dissecting the Dynamics of AI, LLMs, and Market Disruption (00:05:06) The World of AI Investments and Market Trends (00:08:13) Integration of New Technologies in Business (00:15:27) The Power of Increasing Returns and Strategic Investments (00:22:26) Unpacking the Role of Intangibles in Scaling and Innovation (00:28:54) Transformative Potential of Open Source and Idea Recombination (00:34:42) The Complex Landscape of Regulation and Innovation (00:43:17) Today's Venture Capital Ecosystem (00:47:08) Impact of Fewer IPOs and Private Market Dynamics (00:50:38) Capital Allocation in Zero Interest Rate Environments (00:54:44) The Evolution of Venture Capital and High-Stakes Investment Games (00:57:21) Exploring New Frontiers: AI, Energy, and Physical World Innovations (01:01:14) The Power of Learning by Doing (01:17:49) Working with Genius (01:26:47) The Value of Teaching, Writing, and Sharing Knowledge

Invest Like the Best Key Takeaways  The question to consider: Does AI help the strong get stronger, or does AI allow for new businesses to emerge and disrupt the incumbents? The top five technology companies are spending 2x on capital expenditure than the top five energy companies Companies should strive to increase the consumer's willingness to pay“Regulation is the friend of the incumbent.” – Bill Gurley Venture capital is one of the few asset classes that has high persistence: the past winners tend to be future winnersDevelop a framework that allows you to benefit from the group dynamics of pattern recognition, but that does not tie you to one specific type of pattern Instead of nit-picking how an investment may fail, make the primary focus of the discussion: “How big could this be?” Investors must capture the extreme events if they wish to outperform The sharpest minds desire to know where they are wrong about something Read the full notes @ podcastnotes.orgMy guests today are Bill Gurley and Michael Mauboussin. Bill is a General Partner at Benchmark, and Michael is the Head of Consilient Research for Counterpoint Global. While they are longtime friends with one another, I'd never heard them appear somewhere together so it was a real treat to be able to do this with the two of them. They are two of the leading minds in their fields, and we combined their decades of expertise into one wide-ranging conversation. We discuss the different kinds of increasing returns to scale, the issue of regulatory capture, AI, and hardware. Please enjoy this great conversation with Bill Gurley and Michael Mauboussin. Listen to Founders Podcast For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the only investment research platform built for the investor. With traditional research vendors, the diligence process is slow, fragmented, and expensive. That leaves investors competing on how well they can aggregate data — not on their unique ability to analyze insights and make great investment decisions. Tegus offers an end-to-end platform with all the data you need to get up to speed on a company or market: up-to-the-minute financials, customizable models, management and culture checks, and, of course, our vast and growing library of expert call transcripts. Tegus is changing the world of expert research. Learn more and get your free trial at tegus.com/patrick. ----- Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.  Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes: (00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best (00:03:38) Dissecting the Dynamics of AI, LLMs, and Market Disruption (00:05:06) The World of AI Investments and Market Trends (00:08:13) Integration of New Technologies in Business (00:15:27) The Power of Increasing Returns and Strategic Investments (00:22:26) Unpacking the Role of Intangibles in Scaling and Innovation (00:28:54) Transformative Potential of Open Source and Idea Recombination (00:34:42) The Complex Landscape of Regulation and Innovation (00:43:17) Today's Venture Capital Ecosystem (00:47:08) Impact of Fewer IPOs and Private Market Dynamics (00:50:38) Capital Allocation in Zero Interest Rate Environments (00:54:44) The Evolution of Venture Capital and High-Stakes Investment Games (00:57:21) Exploring New Frontiers: AI, Energy, and Physical World Innovations (01:01:14) The Power of Learning by Doing (01:17:49) Working with Genius (01:26:47) The Value of Teaching, Writing, and Sharing Knowledge

Invest Like the Best Key Takeaways  The question to consider: Does AI help the strong get stronger, or does AI allow for new businesses to emerge and disrupt the incumbents? The top five technology companies are spending 2x on capital expenditure than the top five energy companies Companies should strive to increase the consumer's willingness to pay“Regulation is the friend of the incumbent.” – Bill Gurley Venture capital is one of the few asset classes that has high persistence: the past winners tend to be future winnersDevelop a framework that allows you to benefit from the group dynamics of pattern recognition, but that does not tie you to one specific type of pattern Instead of nit-picking how an investment may fail, make the primary focus of the discussion: “How big could this be?” Investors must capture the extreme events if they wish to outperform The sharpest minds desire to know where they are wrong about something Read the full notes @ podcastnotes.orgMy guests today are Bill Gurley and Michael Mauboussin. Bill is a General Partner at Benchmark, and Michael is the Head of Consilient Research for Counterpoint Global. While they are longtime friends with one another, I'd never heard them appear somewhere together so it was a real treat to be able to do this with the two of them. They are two of the leading minds in their fields, and we combined their decades of expertise into one wide-ranging conversation. We discuss the different kinds of increasing returns to scale, the issue of regulatory capture, AI, and hardware. Please enjoy this great conversation with Bill Gurley and Michael Mauboussin. Listen to Founders Podcast For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the only investment research platform built for the investor. With traditional research vendors, the diligence process is slow, fragmented, and expensive. That leaves investors competing on how well they can aggregate data — not on their unique ability to analyze insights and make great investment decisions. Tegus offers an end-to-end platform with all the data you need to get up to speed on a company or market: up-to-the-minute financials, customizable models, management and culture checks, and, of course, our vast and growing library of expert call transcripts. Tegus is changing the world of expert research. Learn more and get your free trial at tegus.com/patrick. ----- Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.  Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes: (00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best (00:03:38) Dissecting the Dynamics of AI, LLMs, and Market Disruption (00:05:06) The World of AI Investments and Market Trends (00:08:13) Integration of New Technologies in Business (00:15:27) The Power of Increasing Returns and Strategic Investments (00:22:26) Unpacking the Role of Intangibles in Scaling and Innovation (00:28:54) Transformative Potential of Open Source and Idea Recombination (00:34:42) The Complex Landscape of Regulation and Innovation (00:43:17) Today's Venture Capital Ecosystem (00:47:08) Impact of Fewer IPOs and Private Market Dynamics (00:50:38) Capital Allocation in Zero Interest Rate Environments (00:54:44) The Evolution of Venture Capital and High-Stakes Investment Games (00:57:21) Exploring New Frontiers: AI, Energy, and Physical World Innovations (01:01:14) The Power of Learning by Doing (01:17:49) Working with Genius (01:26:47) The Value of Teaching, Writing, and Sharing Knowledge

My guests today are Bill Gurley and Michael Mauboussin. Bill is a General Partner at Benchmark, and Michael is the Head of Consilient Research for Counterpoint Global. While they are longtime friends with one another, I'd never heard them appear somewhere together so it was a real treat to be able to do this with the two of them. They are two of the leading minds in their fields, and we combined their decades of expertise into one wide-ranging conversation. We discuss the different kinds of increasing returns to scale, the issue of regulatory capture, AI, and hardware. Please enjoy this great conversation with Bill Gurley and Michael Mauboussin. Listen to Founders Podcast For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the only investment research platform built for the investor. With traditional research vendors, the diligence process is slow, fragmented, and expensive. That leaves investors competing on how well they can aggregate data — not on their unique ability to analyze insights and make great investment decisions. Tegus offers an end-to-end platform with all the data you need to get up to speed on a company or market: up-to-the-minute financials, customizable models, management and culture checks, and, of course, our vast and growing library of expert call transcripts. Tegus is changing the world of expert research. Learn more and get your free trial at tegus.com/patrick. ----- Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.  Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes: (00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best (00:03:38) Dissecting the Dynamics of AI, LLMs, and Market Disruption (00:05:06) The World of AI Investments and Market Trends (00:08:13) Integration of New Technologies in Business (00:15:27) The Power of Increasing Returns and Strategic Investments (00:22:26) Unpacking the Role of Intangibles in Scaling and Innovation (00:28:54) Transformative Potential of Open Source and Idea Recombination (00:34:42) The Complex Landscape of Regulation and Innovation (00:43:17) Today's Venture Capital Ecosystem (00:47:08) Impact of Fewer IPOs and Private Market Dynamics (00:50:38) Capital Allocation in Zero Interest Rate Environments (00:54:44) The Evolution of Venture Capital and High-Stakes Investment Games (00:57:21) Exploring New Frontiers: AI, Energy, and Physical World Innovations (01:01:14) The Power of Learning by Doing (01:17:49) Working with Genius (01:26:47) The Value of Teaching, Writing, and Sharing Knowledge

In this episode Tom Bernthal and Marco Kozlowski shared insights on wealth creation through entrepreneurship and investing. Tom detailed his transition from programming to creating a successful computer game, while Marco stressed the value of risk-taking, learning from failures, and pursuing passion. They discussed investment strategies like understanding market cycles and investing in dividend-paying stocks. Marco introduced the concept of 'investor DNA' and advocated for modeling investment approaches after an eagle's hunting strategy. CONNECT WITH US Email: marco@marcokozlowski.com Website: https://marcokozlowski.com Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/realmarcokozlowski/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marco.kozlow  

Geoffrey West is a physicist, former president and distinguished professor of the Santa Fe Institute. His book, “Scale: The Universal Laws of Life, Growth, and Death in Organisms, Cities, and Businesses” (2017), is a masterpiece. In this episode, we talk about the power laws behind living organisms, cities, businesses, and technologies. By the end of this episode, you will know more about the power law behind the heartbeat of all mammals, the number of patents and crime in big cities compared to small cities, innovation, the way technology scales, and more. I hope you enjoy the conversation. Find me on X at @ProfSchrepel. Also, be sure to subscribe to the Scaling Theory podcast; it helps its growth. *** References Geoffrey West, ⁠Scale: The Universal Laws of Life, Growth, and Death in Organisms, Cities, and Businesses⁠ (Penguin Books, 2017) George J. Stigler, “The Economies of Scale”, The Journal of Law & Economics 1 (1958): 54–71 Michael HR Stanley, et al. “⁠Scaling Behaviour in the Growth of Companies”, Nature 379.6568 (1996): 804-806.APA W. Brian. Arthur, “⁠Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events”, The Economic Journal 99.394 (1989): 116-131. Madeleine IG Daepp, et al. “⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Mortality of Companies⁠”, Journal of the Royal Society Interface 12.106 (2015): 20150120.APA Jiang Zhang, et al. “⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Scaling Laws and a General Theory for the Growth of Public Companies⁠⁠”, arXiv preprint arXiv:2109.10379 (2021)

Much less known than the economic law of decreasing returns is the spiritual law of increasing returns. Working and waiting are worth the blessings. Click here to access the speech page. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, Russ discusses several scenarios for waiting to add the protection leg to your trading strategy.  In other words, when you have strong directional conviction in how an underlying stock or ETF will move, Russ shows how you can wait (delay) legging into the trading strategy.  You can wait to add the second leg (or protection leg) to the trade.  This delay, when you are directionally correct, can increase your returns and improve your outcomes.  Russ shows examples for three strategies: The Bull Call Debit Spread, The Collar trade and The Long Straddle. Don't forget to subscribe to the show!

We're very excited for this one. Part of our mission with Making Media is to highlight great content across the internet. Today, we're starting with business essays and to bring some wisdom to the conversation, we enlisted one of our favorite writers, Packy McCormick. Hear us break down our most influential business essays, read them through the links in the shownotes, and let us know what you think on Twitter or hello@joincolossus.com. Enjoy!   For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page here.    -----   Scribe is the presenting sponsor of this episode of Making Media and the magic behind the Colossus transcripts. One of the best decisions we made at Colossus was transcribing all of our audio into a searchable transcript library. We had been using another provider up until the summer of 2022 but we were constantly having issues with accuracy if our audio was just the slightest bit impaired. Whether it's training sessions, internal Q&As, or for media purposes, the value of transcripts is huge. And we are not alone. Scribe is the transcription service that powers all of S&P Global - like CapIQ - and the client list includes our friends at Tegus. Go to joincolossus.com/scribe to unlock 150 minutes of free transcription and test their capabilities.   -----   Making Media is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Making Media, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.   Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter: @ReustleMatt | @domcooke | @JoinColossus    Show Notes (00:02:59) - [First question] - The Not Boring back story and what he learned from his time at Breather (00:05:06) - Aggregation Theory by Ben Thompson (00:09:42) - The Bus Ticket Theory of Genius by Paul Graham (00:13:45) - Letter to a friend who may start a new investment platform by Graham Duncan (00:17:05) - Positional Scarcity by Alex Danco (00:22:23] - The Three Sides of Risk by Morgan Housel (00:26:56) - Salary Negotiation by Patrick McKenzie (00:31:47) - Sam Hinkie's resignation letter (00:37:10) - Increasing Returns and the New World of Business by W. Brian Arthur (00:41:54) - 10 Tips on Writing by David Ogilvy (00:44:46) - The next big thing will start out looking like a toy by Chris Dixon (00:49:08) - The Tail End by Tim Urban (00:53:41) - 1,000 True Fans by Kevin Kelly (00:59:07) - Honorable mention: The Great Online Game by Packy McCormick (01:03:26) - Honorable mention: Excel Never Dies by Packy McCormick  (01:05:58) - Packy's closing thoughts and why he thinks people should read more Sci-Fi (01:08:37) - Honorable mention: Snow Crash by Neal Stephenson Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We all have moments when we feel stuck. When we feel like we are not getting the answers, blessings, and direction we desire from heaven. In these moments, or even seasons of longing, relying on the Lord for peace and patience while drawing strength from our covenants can help us through. Waiting on the Lord is always worth His promised blessings, so how do we find strength through seasons of waiting? "Waiting is not a result of anything you've done wrong" Morgan Jones Pearson took to Instagram with this idea. She shares, “I know what [waiting for God] feels like. I'm a believer that we're all waiting for something but I'm also a believer that God's promises are always fulfilled and always worth the wait.” Today's podcast discusses how we can all be strengthened in those waiting periods by relying on the covenants and promises we've made, and look for the blessings immediately surrounding us.   Top takeaways from this episode Our covenants and promises we make to God will strengthen us, especially in times of waiting for answers to our prayers. Everyone is waiting on some promised blessing from the Lord, and in our waiting, we can learn how to draw closer to heaven. A waiting period can become a sacred, sweet, and tender moment when the Lord is brought into that season. There is no timeline or restraint for us to receive blessings. God will always follow through with his promises. While we are waiting for promised blessings, we should focus on actively exercising our faith to get through the difficult times.   Something to think about It can be easy to get down on yourself and think that you have done something wrong if you're not seeing an answer to your prayers. God never wants you to feel like you are doing something wrong, and if you've felt like an outsider to God's blessings, you are not alone. Take the time to look around at the "early harvests" or blessings that are more immediate around you.   Small and simple challenge Turn to the scriptures with a sincere question in your heart and pray for divine inspiration. It's important to really get into the scriptures when you're in your waiting period.   Links Blessings: A Law of Increasing Returns by Henry B. EyringSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Brian Arthur is a storied economist and complexity thinker. He is a pioneer in a number of disciplines including increasing […]

Atlassian's latest investor day showed growing ambition from this 20-year old cloud pioneer.A transcript with additional links can be found here: https://www.hellerhs.com/post/atlassian-growing-ambition— Increasing Returns is a podcast by Heller House. We apply the principles of value investing to the industries of the future.Learn more about Heller House https://www.hellerhs.comFollow Marcelo on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarceloPLimaSubscribe to our email list https://www.hellerhs.com/subscribe 

This is Matt Reustle, and today we're breaking down Europe's leading low-cost gym operator, Basic-Fit. Netherlands based Basic-Fit is a story of rapid expansion. Today, they operate over a 1000 clubs across 5 countries, and have 2 million combined members in their system.   To break down the business, I'm joined by Jonathan Abenaim from Arlen House Capital, who is an investor in Basic-Fit. We cover a history of fitness clubs dating back to the late 70's and early 80's, how low-cost gym models have emerged as winners and created a large addressable market, and we talk about how Basic-Fit is putting its own spin on a successful playbook from the US. Please enjoy this breakdown of Basic-Fit.   For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page here.   -----   This episode is brought to you by Visible Alpha. The team at Visible Alpha built a platform to analyze consensus data and financial metrics on over 6,000 public traded companies. Rather than having to dig through models one by one, Visible Alpha extracts data from every line item across sell-side models so you can better understand expectations on metrics beyond just revenue and earnings. Try Visible Alpha for free by visiting visiblealpha.com/breakdowns   -----   This episode is brought to you by Quartr. With Quartr, you can access conference calls, investor presentations, transcripts, and earnings reports – straight from your pocket. Quartr is 100% free and includes companies from 12 markets including the US, the UK, Canada, India, and all the Scandanavian countries. Quartr is available for both iOS and Android, so check out the app today.   -----   Business Breakdowns is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Business Breakdowns, visit joincolossus.com/episodes.   Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter: @JoinColossus | @patrick_oshag | @jspujji | @zbfuss Show Notes [00:02:47] - [First question] - What it's like to walk into a Basic-Fit gym [00:03:50] - Their footprint today in terms of geography, members and locations  [00:04:41] - The history of gyms in the US and differences between them and European ones [00:08:33] - Why US gym models lack influence and penetration in Europe [00:10:58] - The key insight that led to founding Basic-Fit  [00:13:40] - Economics of building and operating a gym in general and for Basic-Fit [00:16:47] - Typical churn for more established locations and their member demographic [00:20:33] - When Basic-Fit breaks even on a membership and how they battle churn [00:23:28] - Their cancellation policy and why they don't leave for typical reasons [00:25:10] - Basic-Fit's fortressing strategy and clustering philosophy [00:28:51] - Whether or not there's data to support members using multiple gyms  [00:33:11] - The competitive landscape and whether other gyms adopt Basic-Fit's strategy [00:35:21] - What drives country localizations for a particular gym chain [00:38:22] - Basic-Fit's digital offering and at-home disruption from US brands  [00:42:31] - How they navigated the pandemic and if there's any lasting changes [00:44:31] - The biggest threats to Basic-Fit over the next five years [00:46:23] - Major takeaways from studying Basic-Fit's story

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU'LL LEARN:01:52 - Michael's early career working under the tutelage of Bill Miller.06:08 - His introduction to the Santa Fe Institute and how it shaped his investing style.15:49 - The 3 steps of what Michael calls Expectations Investing.19:37 - The concept of reflexivity.25:26 - The problem with investing is based simply on multiples.30:35 - The rise of intangibles, what are they, and how to look through them.39:40 - The golden rule of share buybacks and why they are controversial to some.55:00 - How to calculate a company's competitive moat.58:09 - How Michael has updated the Security Analysis course at Columbia.1:04:33 - How to determine your own cost of capital.And much, much more!*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.BOOKS AND RESOURCESMichael Mauboussin's website.Michael Mauboussin's Twitter.Measuring the Moat paper. Expectations Investing book.Increasing Returns by Brian Arthur book.Scale by Geoffrey West book. Understanding Michael Porter by Joan Magretta book.Against the Gods by Peter Bernstein book.Valuation by McKinsey book. A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton Malkiel book. Trey Lockerbie Twitter.Preston, Trey & Stig's tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool.New to the show? Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs.See the all-new 2022 Lexus NX and discover everything it was designed to do for you. Welcome to the next level.Yieldstreet allows you to invest beyond the stock market with an evolving marketplace of alternative investments. Create your account today.Get access to some of the most sought-after real estate in the U.S. with Crowdstreet.Find Pros & Fair Pricing for Any Home Project for Free with Angi.Join Commonstock's community of engaged investors to access exclusive financial data, follow and chat with fellow investors, get alerts when friends buy or sell, and make trades directly through the platform.Send, spend and receive money around the world easily with Wise.Provide future financial protection to the people who matter most to you with the help of TD Term Life Insurance.Learn more about how you can get started investing in some of the best cash flow markets today with Rent to Retirement.Updating your wardrobe or just simply looking for a new fall flannel? Head to Mizzen+Main and use promo code WSB to receive $35 off an order of $125 or more!Be part of the solution by investing in companies that are actively engaged in integrating ESG practices with Desjardins.Eat clean 24/7, with fresh—never frozen—prepared meals that are so delicious with Factor. Use code wsb120 to get $120 off over your first 5 weeks of meals.Canada's #1 employee benefits plan for small businesses! The Chambers Plan evolves with the way you work and live while keeping the rates stable. Opt for the simple, stable, and smart choice for your business.Every 28 seconds an entrepreneur makes their first sale on Shopify. Access powerful tools to help you find customers, drive sales, and manage your day-to-day. Start a FREE fourteen-day trial right now!Reclaim your health and arm your immune system with convenient, daily nutrition. Athletic Greens is going to give you a FREE 1 year supply of immune-supporting Vitamin D AND 5 FREE travel packs with your first purchase.Let TurboTax Live Experts help you however you need, and if you need an extra hand, hand your taxes off to them and they'll do it all for you!Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors.HELP US OUT!Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Our guest this week is Michael Mauboussin. Michael is the head of consilient research at Counterpoint Global. Before joining Counterpoint Global in January 2020, Michael was director of research at BlueMountain Capital Management and prior to that held research leadership roles at Credit Suisse and Legg Mason Capital Management. Michael is the author of three books including The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing and is also coauthor with Alfred Rappaport of Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns. He has been an adjunct professor of finance at Columbia Business School since 1993 and is on the faculty of the Heilbrunn Center for Graham & Dodd Investing. Michael is also chairman emeritus of the board of trustees of the Santa Fe Institute. He received his bachelor's degree from Georgetown University.BackgroundBioThe Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing, by Michael MauboussinExpectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns, by Michael Mauboussin and Alfred RappaportMore Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places, by Michael MauboussinConsilienceConsilience: The Unity of Knowledge, by Edward O. Wilson“Charlie Munger's System of Mental Models: How to Think Your Way to Success,” by Andrew McVagh, mymentalmodels.info.com, Aug. 7, 2018.“Increasing Returns and the New World of Business,” by W. Brian Arthur, harvardbusinessreview.com, July-August 1996.Santa Fe Institute“Why Foxes Make Better Decisions Than Hedgehogs,” by Kevin Sookocheff, sookocheff.com, July 15, 2021.Jonathan Baron, Professor, University of PennsylvaniaActive Fund Success“Turn and Face the Strange: Overcoming Barriers to Change in Sports and Investing,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanley.com, Sept. 8, 2021.“Dispersion and Alpha Conversion: How Dispersion Creates the Opportunity to Express Skill,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanley.com, April 14, 2020.Fundamental Law of Active Management“The ‘Paradox of Skill' Adds to Active Management Woes,” by Christine Idzelis, institutionalinvestor.com, Sept. 17, 2020.Triumph and Tragedy in Mudville: A Lifelong Passion for Baseball, by Stephen Jay Gould“Looking for Easy Games in Bonds,” by Michael Mauboussin, bluemountaincapital.com, April 16, 2019.“Do Individual Day Traders Make Money? Evidence From Taiwan,” by Brad Barber, Yi-Tsung Lee, Yu-Jane Liu, and Terrance Odean, Berkeley.edu, May 2004.Expectations InvestingCreating Shareholder Value: A Guide for Managers and Investors, by Alfred Rappaport“Market-Expected Return on Investment: Bridging Accounting and Valuation,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanely.com, April 14, 2021.Security Analysis course taught by Michael Mauboussin at Columbia Business School“The Math of Value and Growth: Growth, Return on Capital, and the Discount Rate,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanely.com, June 9, 2020.“Public to Private Equity in the United States: A Long-Term Look,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanley.com, Aug. 4, 2020.“How the Parting of Two Market Forces Helped Spur the Equity Rally,” by Michael Mauboussin, ft.com, Feb. 8, 2021.Business Quality and Capital Allocation“Thoughts on Cost of Capital and Buffet's $1 Test--Part 1,” by John Huber, sabercapitalmgt.com, Oct. 30, 2017.“Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)--Michael Mauboussin on Investment Concepts,” anthenarium.com.“Michael Mauboussin on Capital Allocation and Value Creation,” anthenarium.com, Nov. 29, 2019.“Chancellor: Tech Growth Comes at Irrational Price,” by Edward Chancellor, reuters.com, Sept. 9, 2021.“Categorizing for Clarity: Cash Flow Statement Adjustments to Improve Insight,” by Michael Mauboussin and Dan Callahan, morganstanley.com, Oct. 6, 2021.Other and Recommended ReadingAswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance, Stern School of BusinessThe Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness, by Morgan HouselThe Warren Buffett Way, by Robert HagstromWarren Buffett: Inside the Ultimate Money Mind, by Robert HagstromRicher, Wiser, Happier: How the World's Greatest Inventors Win in Markets and Life, by William Green

“In the next three to five years, every brand will have a Roblox strategy.”Quite an interesting statement from Roblox's VP of Brand Partnerships, Christina Wootton!In this episode we explore the opportunity for Roblox to build an advertising business and dramatically increase its monetization.The images and video segments referenced in this episode are at:https://www.hellerhs.com/post/roblox-the-coming-ad-titanCheck out our Episode 10, Investing in the Metaverse, for a primer on Roblox.Increasing Returns is a podcast by Heller House. We apply the principles of value investing to the industries of the future.Learn more about Heller House https://www.hellerhs.comFollow Marcelo on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarceloPLimaSubscribe to our email list https://www.hellerhs.com/subscribe 

Of our 65+ sources for the TSMC episode, one stood above the rest: a wonderful Knowledge Project episode with Brinton Johns and Jon Bathgate of NZS Capital laying out the state of the semiconductor market. When coincidentally we met Brinton a week later, we knew fate was telling us we had to dig deeper. It turns out NZS has a lot more to teach Acquired than just about semis! Here we dive into their fascinating philosophy of "complexity investing", which was born out of their interactions with the world-famous Santa Fe Institute (of W. Brian Arthur and Increasing Returns fame!)... and of course we also throw in some semiconductor shop-talk for good measure. :) If you love Acquired and want more, join our LP Community for access to over 50 LP-only episodes, monthly Zoom calls, and live access for big events like emergency pods and book club discussions with authors. We can't wait to see you there. Join here at: https://acquired.fm/lp/ Sponsors: Thanks to SoftBank Latin America for being our presenting sponsor for this special episode. If you are an entrepreneur, employee, other investor or simply someone who's interested in learning about the best young companies in LatAm right now, get in touch with them at: https://bit.ly/acquiredsoftbanklatam , and tell them that Ben and David sent you! You can get in touch with their portfolio company Banco Inter and their CEO João Vitor Menin at https://www.linkedin.com/in/joãovitormenin/ Thank you as well to Modern Treasury and to Fundrise. You can learn more about them at: https://bit.ly/acquiredmoderntreasury (and you can find our reverse interview with them at https://www.moderntreasury.com/acquired ) https://bit.ly/acquiredfundrise Links: NZS Capital: https://www.nzscapital.com The Santa Fe Institute: https://www.santafe.edu NZS's white paper on Complexity Investing: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5ca38f3216b6405d11e3d4b4/t/60131df6a8d27d63432ea5ff/1611865607574/Complexity_2021update-v9pt2.pdf Brinton & Jon on The Knowledge Project: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6NUO_bymuA Twitter: Brinton: https://twitter.com/bjohns3 Jon: https://twitter.com/jbathgate Brad: https://twitter.com/bradsling ‍Note: Acquired hosts and guests may hold assets discussed in this episode. This podcast is not investment advice, and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. You should do your own research and make your own independent decisions when considering any financial transactions.

Today's episode is called GEICOs of the 21st century. The big idea I was trying to communicate to my investors at the time was that I was evolving from pursuing investments in “cheap” securities, to instead pursuing investments similar to GEICO when Ben Graham invested in it in 1948. Using Graham as an example was important, since my investor base was more traditional, value investor-minded. It's also kind of ironic, of course, since Graham made more money from a “growth” investment than anything else he did put together. I dislike the labels “growth” and “value” because I think it's a false dichotomy. To me, “value” just means buying something for less than it's worth. The growth moniker just means that I'm willing to believe in the company's future growth, and that growth is what allows me to buy it today for less than what it'll be worth in the future.The second reason why using Graham as an example is ironic is that Irving Kahn famously made a study of Graham's returns and found out he would have underperformed the market if he hadn't invested in Geico.When I first published this letter—it came out in August 2018—it made the rounds on twitter, and was even quoted in a book. I think today—three years later—not only does it hold up well, but the framework set forth here remains as relevant as ever, as we look towards the next technology adoption curves: the metaverse, the entire universe of crypto assets, enterprise software, and more. I hope you enjoy it.A transcript of this episode is available here:https://www.hellerhs.com/post/geicos-of-the-21st-centuryIncreasing Returns is a podcast by Heller House. We apply the principles of value investing to the industries of the future.Increasing Returns is a podcast by Heller House. We apply the principles of value investing to the industries of the future.Learn more about Heller House https://www.hellerhs.comFollow Marcelo on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarceloPLimaSubscribe to our email list https://www.hellerhs.com/subscribe 

In this interview with John Rotonti of The Motley Fool, we really cover the waterfront. We talk about portfolio construction, valuation, and discuss the following companies: Shopify, Wix, Slack, PayPal, Square, Twilio, Roku, Spotify, and Zoom. We also talk about the ecological approach we use, where we think of companies as organisms competing in a Darwinian jungle.A transcript of this interview is on our website, at https://www.hellerhs.com/post/valuation-portfolio-construction-and-lots-of-companiesEven though this interview originally aired in October of 2020, I think it remains incredibly relevant, and I hope you enjoy it.Increasing Returns is a podcast by Heller House. We apply the principles of value investing to the industries of the future.Links:Heller HouseMarcelo P. Lima on TwitterSubscribe to our email listYou can watch a video of our chat here. 

This week we are back with another conversation with my friend Ryan Reeves, this time on Lemonade ($LMND). We talk about the bull and bear cases for the company, the financial model, the importance of using imagination when thinking about the future, and what I think is the most interesting part of the conversation, competitive advantages or moats. A transcript of this conversation, with links and photos, is at https://www.hellerhs.com/post/more-lemonadeThis episode aired early last month on July 6, 2021. I hope you enjoy it.Increasing Returns is a podcast by Heller House. We apply the principles of value investing to the industries of the future.Links:Heller HouseMarcelo P. Lima on TwitterSubscribe to our email list————————————-You can find Ryan Reeves's excellent podcast here.

Increasing Returns is a podcast by Heller House. We apply the principles of value investing to the industries of the future.Links:Heller HouseMarcelo P. Lima on TwitterSubscribe to our email list————————————————On Avoiding Technologyhttps://www.hellerhs.com/post/on-avoiding-technology

Increasing Returns is a podcast by Heller House. We apply the principles of value investing to the industries of the future.Links:Heller HouseMarcelo P. Lima on TwitterSubscribe to our email list————————————————Buffett's World War II Debuthttps://www.hellerhs.com/post/buffett-s-world-war-ii-debut

Hello, my name is Marcelo Lima and I'm an investment manager at Heller House. This is our podcast, Increasing Returns.The name Increasing Returns is inspired by W. Brian Arthur's essay called Increasing Returns and the New World of Business, from 1996. That essay explains why the internet has completely upended the world of business and changed the rules for investors. I'll have a lot more to say about this in a future episode, but for now, welcome to the show. I hope you enjoy it.

6.15.2021 - Tues PM - Pastor Bradford - "The Law of Increasing Returns" by GBFPC

How do you move forward with faith and hope when your righteous desires go unmet? How do you find belonging and meaning when your life path doesn’t fit “the mold” or what you anticipated or expected? In this episode, we talk with Mindy Booth Baxter, a member of the Relief Society Advisory Council, about the “revelation-led leaps of faith” that led her away from a successful career in New York City to culinary school, new opportunities to serve, and marriage in her 40s. Sister Baxter courageously shares her personal journey with infertility, and how she has found healing through turning to God and Jesus Christ in her suffering. She offers hope and understanding to others struggling with infertility and provides helpful suggestions on how we all can better minister to and comfort those we love. Resources: Mindy Booth Baxter Bio https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/callings/relief-society-organization/this-is-your-relief-society/general-leaders/mindy-booth-baxter?lang=eng Elder Neil L. Andersen BYU Devotional Speech, "A Compensatory Spiritual Power for the Righteous" https://speeches.byu.edu/talks/neil-l-andersen/a-compensatory-spiritual-power-for-the-righteous/ President Henry B. Eyring BYU Devotional Speech, "A Law of Increasing Returns" https://speeches.byu.edu/talks/henry-b-eyring/law-increasing-returns/?fbclid=IwAR0gpMJ3EPSHUH_Y1qcGXGCaDgtw0Ay6Q2_bXV9Nzzj2-m8um17o_ZcQISc Elder Richard G. Scott General Conference Address, "Finding Joy in Life" https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/study/general-conference/1996/04/finding-joy-in-life?lang=eng Ministering Resources https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/ministering?lang=eng&cid=rdb_ministering_eng_ministering_churchofjesuschrist-org

People are always amazed when they hear about the power of compound interest for the first time. They are even more amazed when you can show them that compound interest can be supercharged with the reinvesting of dividends. Dividends have long been a great investment income source, but they are far more powerful when put right back to work from the asset that produced them in the first place. I am no hard core dividend investor, but the stocks/mutual funds/ETFs that I own that pay dividends ALL have them reinvested. Today, we will discuss: 1. How dividends work 2. The difference in returns with reinvested dividends 3. How share repurchases differ from dividend reinvestment   Begin your path to financial freedom today: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjyCApAbHBN0Jtw5bAehbRg?sub_confirmation=1   Don't forget to like, subscribe, and leave comments below as I would love your feedback. Be sure to check out my website (www.mnowithdylan.com) where you can get more information on my financial coaching services and more, the podcast of these shows if you are more of a listener than a watcher, and follow the show on any social media outlet (FB, Twitter, & Instagram) @mnowithdylan (Money's No Object with Dylan Howell) [All links in description]. Tune in tomorrow to discuss the efficacy of the different types of educational investment accounts available to parents. Don't forget to check-in every weekday (Monday-Friday) for new videos which will be uploaded each day at 6 a.m. CDT. Thank you, guys, for tuning into this episode of Money's No Object. I'm Dylan Howell. God Bless!   Website: https://www.mnowithdylan.com/   Financial Coaching Information: https://www.mnowithdylan.com/workwithdylan/   Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/mnowithdylan/   Instagram Page: https://www.instagram.com/mnowithdylan/   Twitter: https://twitter.com/mnowithdylan   (Please keep in mind that I am not a financial advisor. I create these videos for educational purposes only. You and only you are responsible for the investment decisions that you make.)

Breakout trading specialist and Hedge Fund manager Tomas Nesnidal joins us to discuss how to increase the returns of trading strategies using "Performance Qualifiers" while also managing risk, including: What is Dynamic Position Sizing (DPS) and how can it improve risk-adjusted returns, How Dynamic Position Sizing is different to classical position sizing (and why DPS is better), Why it’s important for traders to connect position size with what’s going on in the markets, instead of just their equity curve, The 5 groups of Performance Qualifiers and how to use them to identify the probabilities of future trades, Why using filters to improve trading strategies can be dangerous (and DPS is a much better option instead), Plus, Dynamic Position Sizing and risk management, Optimal-f and older position sizing techniques, Dynamic Position Sizing for stocks, forex and other markets, why it’s important for traders to try new concepts, and much more. ► Download the free DPS ebook at https://dpstradingtechnique.com  or discover more from Tomas at https://systemsontheroad.com

For 200 years—from 1800 to 2000—first the Industrial Revolution Age and next the Modern Economic Growth Age rolled forward, bringing previously unimaginable wealth to the global north. And the global south fell further and further behind. Don’t get us wrong—life expectancy, nutrition standards, and material well-being in 2000 were all much higher in the global south in 2000 than in 1800. But the proportional gap vis-a-vis the global north had grown to staggering and awful proportions that were a scandal, a disgrace, and a crime. But since 2000 the worm may have turned: now it looks as though the global south—virtually the entire global south—is now “converging” and catching up to the global north.References:William Baumol (1986): Productivity, Convergence, & Welfare: What the Long-Run Data Show J. Bradford DeLong (1988): Productivity, Convergence, & Welfare: Comment Paul Krugman (1991): _ Increasing Returns and Economic Geography_ Lant Pritchett (1997): Divergence, Big Time Masahisa Fujita, Paul Krugman, & Anthony J. Venables (1999): The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, & International TradeAlberto Alesina, William Easterly, & Janina Matuszeski (2009): Artificial States Joe Studwell (2013): How Asia Works: Success and Failure In the World's Most Dynamic Region Noah Smith (2021): _All Futurism is Afrofuturism Dev Patel, Justin Sandefur, & Arvind Subramanian (2021): The New Era of Unconditional Convergence Michael Kremer, Jack Willis, & Yang You (2021): Converging to Convergence Noah Smith: Checking in on the Global South: ‘Developing countries are catching up, but not evenly… LINK: Twirlip of the Mists: Hexapodia as the Key InsightVernor Vinge: A Fire Upon the Deep Vernor Vinge: A Deepness in the Sky Get full access to Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality at braddelong.substack.com/subscribe

Jo Guldi is a scholar of Britain's history and empire who is especially involved in questions of state expansion, the contestation of property under capitalism, and how state and property concepts are recorded in the built environment's landscape. These themes informed her first book, Roads to Power, which examined Britain's interkingdom highway and its users from 1740 to 1848. They also inform her current research into rent disputes and land reform for my next monograph, The Long Land War, which profiles three moments in the history of property: the Irish Land Court of 1881 and its invention of rent control, the ideology of “squatting” in post-1940 Britain, and the creation of the “participatory map” for contesting legal boundaries in Britain and India in the 1970s and 80s.This conversation between Jo and Matt Prewitt from RadicalxChange Foundation focuses on infrastructure and its role in economies and history.Credits:Production by Jennifer Morone, Leon Erichsen and Matt PrewittEditing and Sound Engineering by Jennifer MoroneIntro/Outro music by MagnusMoone “Wind in the Willows” is licensed under a Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 International License (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0)Interlude music by Podington Bear “Floating in Space” | LICENSE: Podcast Sync License (includes streaming and downloadable content.) | Single Use | Term: In perpetuity | Territory: Worldwide

This week’s podcast is on Airbnb and what I think people are getting wrong about its business model and future in Asia. Which has some effect on how you would value it going forward.You can listen to this podcast here or at iTunes, Google Podcasts and Himalaya.Advantages of first mover in tech can include:Bigger advantages:Temporary supply-demand imbalanceIncreasing returns to scaleSwitching costsNetwork effectsLearning effectsSmaller advantages:Brand loyaltyTechnological leadershipScarce assets in techDisadvantages of first mover in tech can include:High failure rateR&D expenses on successful and unsuccessful tech.Cost of building production processes and complementary goods not available in the marketCost and difficulty of developing suppliers and distribution channels.Cost and difficulty of building consumer awareness and educationAvailability of enabling technologies and infrastructureUncertainty of customer requirementsRelated podcasts and articles:Introduction to Innovation, Elon and Android’s Dominant Design. (Jeff’s Asia Tech Class – Podcast 58)Concepts for this class.Increasing Returns to Tech AdoptionFirst Mover Advantages and Disadvantages.Path DependencyResource Based CompetitionCore CompetencySupply-Demand ImbalanceCompanies for this class:TeslaNioThis is part of Learning Goals: Level 7, with a focus on:#32: Innovation, Adaptation and Resilience as Competitive Strategy——–I write and speak about digital China and Asia’s latest tech trends.I also run Jeff’s Asia Tech Class, a podcast and subscription newsletter for investors in China / Asia tech companies.This content (articles, podcasts, website info) is not investment advice. The information and opinions from me and any guests may be incorrect. The numbers and information may be wrong. The views expressed may no longer be relevant or accurate. Investing is risky. Do your own research.Support the show (https://jefftowson.com)

Much less known than the economic law of decreasing returns is the spiritual law of increasing returns. Working and waiting are worth the blessings. Support the show: https://ldsp-pay.ldschurch.org/donations/byu/byu-speeches.html See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Much less known than the economic law of decreasing returns is the spiritual law of increasing returns. Working and waiting are worth the blessings. Support the show: https://ldsp-pay.ldschurch.org/donations/byu/byu-speeches.html See omnystudio.com/policies/listener for privacy information.

Daniel Simpson, asset manager at Nighthawk Equity, shares insights from over 25 years of asset management experience. Daniel holds an exceptional record of acquiring and repositioning value-add properties in as little as 18 months. Nighthawk Equity currently has over 1700 units under management and a portfolio valued at over $70 Million.

Linked Content The Law of Increasing Returns! "Let us begin our analysis by showing how Nature employs this law in behalf of the tillers of the soil. The farmer carefully prepares the ground, then sows his wheat and waits while the Law of Increasing Returns brings back the seed he has sown, plus a many-fold increase. But for this Law of Increasing Returns, man would perish, because he could not make the soil produce sufficient food for his existence. There would be no advantage to be gained by sowing a field of wheat if the harvest yield did not return more than was sown." - Napoleon Hill --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/keybravo/message

Find opportunities for humor. Laughter persists as people create memes and musical parodies amid the coronavirus crisis. There are humor and lessons in these moments of challenge. We agree with the sentiment of Abraham Lincoln who said, “With the fearful strain that is upon me day and night, if I did not laugh, I should die.’ And follow the admonition of Henry B. Eyring in the 1982 BYU talk A Law of Increasing Returns, when he asked us to ‘Keep your eyes open for humor in the present.” Boyd Matheson,Opinion Editor at Deseret News, takes you inside the latest political news and current events, providing higher ground for today's discussions. Listen weekdays 11 am to noon at 1160 AM and 102.7 FM, online at KSLNewsradio.com, or on the app.

W. Brian Arthur is an economist and complexity thinker. He is best known for his work on network effects locking markets in to the domination of a single player. He is also one of the pioneers of the science of complexity—the science of how patterns and structures self-organize. He is a member of the Founders Society of the Santa Fe Institute and in 1988 ran its first research program. He has served on SFI's Science Board for 18 years and its Board of Trustees for 10 years, and is currently External Professor at SFI. Arthur held the Morrison Chair of Economics and Population Studies at Stanford from 1983 to 1996. He has degrees in operations research, economics, mathematics, and electrical engineering. Arthur is a well-known keynote speaker.   Research Brian Arthur is known for 3 main sets of ideas: Increasing returns. In the 1980s Arthur developed a way for economics to understand how increasing returns or positive feedbacks (e.g. network effects) operate in the economy — in particular how they can magnify small, random events and act to lock in dominant players. This work has gone on to become important to our understanding of the high-tech economy. Complexity economics. In the late 1980s, Arthur led a group at the Santa Fe Institute to develop an alternative approach to economics—"complexity economics." Standard economics is based on the idea of super-rational actors operating in a static equilibrium world; complexity economics assumes actors in the economy do not necessarily face well-defined problems or use super-rationality. They explore, try to make sense, react and re-react to the outcomes they together create. The economy is not in stasis but always forming, always "discovering" fresh novelty. In this non-equilibrium view of the economy, bubbles and crashes can happen, markets can be "gamed" or exploited, and history and institutions matter. How technology evolves. In 2009, Arthur published The Nature of Technology: What it Is and How it Evolves. The book argues that technology, like biological life, evolves from earlier forms. But the main mechanism isn't Darwin's, it is the combining of earlier technologies—earlier forms. The book explores in detail how innovation works. And it argues that economy isn't just a container for its technologies; the economy emerges from its technologies. Awards Arthur was awarded the inaugural Lagrange Prize in Complexity Science in 2008, and the Schumpeter Prize in Economics in 1990. He is a Guggenheim Fellow, 1987-88, Fellow of the Econometric Society, and IBM Faculty Fellow. He holds honorary doctorates from the National Univ. of Ireland (Galway) 2000, and Lancaster University (UK) 2009. Checkout my Newsletter Connect with us! Whatgotyouthere Exclusive opportunities: http://whatgotyouthere.com/sponsors/ MCTco Collagen Protein Bars www.mctco.com 20% off with code “WGYT” Brian's Books  The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves  Complexity and the Economy  Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy   

  This episode is sponsored by Shug The Dug Productions   Hello and welcome to Film Pro Productivity, the podcast that helps film professionals and other creatives to live a more focused, effective and HAPPY life. My name is Carter Ferguson and this is EPISODE 42 – THE LAW OF SUCCESS IN 16 LESSONS: PART 3   This is the third part of my breakdown of Napoleon Hill’s powerful book THE LAW OF SUCCESS IN 16 LESSONS but if you’ve not yet heard the previous episodes in this particular series then I’d strongly advise you to go back and check out episodes 40 and 41 before listening to this one.   My aim here is to give you a fleeting glimpse of the power that lies within the pages of the book. In the show notes for this episode I will give a link to A FREE DOWNLOAD OF A PUBLIC DOMAIN .MOBI VERSION OF THE COMPLETE TEXT which will play in many free e-readers. In the show notes of the last episode I gave a similar link to a KINDLE VERSION and in episode 39 a PDF VERSION. These can all be accessed via the official website filmproproductivity.com   TEXT DOWNLOAD LINK .EPUB   Now I quote with such regularity from the book that I won’t always identify sections of the text purely for streamlining purposes. Suffice to say that much of the content is my interpretation or direct quotation of NAPOLEON HILL. The only regular change I make is in making it gender-neutral every now and again, not for reasons of political correctness, but because I want to make what he says as accessible and relevant for today’s audience as he intended it to be in 1928. Imagination is more important that knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world. – Albert Einstein UNQUOTE WHATEVER THE MIND CAN CONCEIVE AND BELIEVE THE MIND CAN ACHIEVE   LESSON 6 IMAGINATION: Hill explains that there are two forms of imagination: · First there is what he refers to as SYNTHETIC IMAGINATION which consists of organizing and putting together of RECOGNIZED IDEAS, CONCEPTS AND FACTS arranged in a new combination. Very seldom, he explains, does anyone create an idea or anything else absolutely new. Nearly everything known to civilization is but a combination of something that is old. · Secondly there is what he refers to as CREATIVE IMAGINATION which operates through a kind of sixth sense and has its base in the SUBCONSCIOUS. It serves as the exclusive medium through which basically new ideas or facts are revealed. That’s kinda his take on it and it’s an interesting angle which I admit I had never before considered, but absolutely recognise. He goes on to say that “If you have mastered and thoroughly understood the preceding lessons you know that the materials out of which we have built our DEFINITE CHIEF AIM were assembled and combined in your imagination. You also know that SELF-CONFIDENCE, INITIATIVE and LEADERSHIP must be created in your imagination before they can become a reality, for it is in the workshop of your imagination that you will put the principle of AUTO-SUGGESTION into operation in creating these necessary qualities.”   Before I go any further I must give you the definition of autosuggestion: It is the hypnotic or subconscious adoption of an idea which one has originated oneself. It is like REPROGRAMMING YOUR SUBCONSCIOUS MIND to believe what you want it to believe – Hill uses it to replace your old beliefs with new ones that will serve you better.   He describes IMAGINATION, in fact, as the hub of this course as ”You will never have a definite purpose in life, you will never have self-confidence, you will never have initiative and leadership unless you first create these qualities in your imagination and see yourself in possession of them.”   He states too that the “imagination can receive impressions or ideas and out of these it can form new combinations.” And he gives a multitude of real-life examples of how this manifests.   In one example Hill drives home that his friend and employer ANDREW CARNEGIE was a man of great IMAGINATION as he first created a definite purpose and then surrounded himself with men who had the training and the vision and the capacity necessary for the transformation of that purpose into reality. He did not always create his own plans for the attainment of his definite purpose. He just made it his business to know what he wanted, then he found men who could create the plans to get it.   Hill believed that this was not only imagination but genius of the highest order.   In this lesson Hill also leans heavily on TRAINING the IMAGINATION to weave new combinations out of old ideas. This is kinda interesting to me as many current authors of new productivity books are simply weaving the old ideas and research of Hill and those who came before him into new works. I’m doing that here in fact, now that I think on it. Al too often do I buy a new productivity book, only to discover that it’s a rehashing of ideas and principles which I am already aware of.   Hill takes the time too, to list in his examples, several great failures that came about as their instigators had NO IMAGINATION. Hill adds an interesting point too - THAT THE POWER OF DECISION GROWS WITH USE. If you’ve been suffering at all from Choice Paralysis that may give you a bit of hope for the future.   He gives more examples in this lesson than in any other chapter of the book but his point is far easier for us to understand these days than it was for the populace in 1928 – He is effectively saying DREAM, AND USE YOUR IMAGINATION TO HELP LEAD YOU TO THE ATTAINMENT OF YOUR GOALS and that DREAMS and ACTIONS, he states time and again, are closely related.   If you feel that all the new ideas have been used up, you are incorrect. The best ideas, he predicts, are yet to be revealed and put into the service of mankind. No, he won’t let a negative thought pass on this subject, and he was right. Can you imagine someone from 1928 seeing all that has been achieved in the years that have followed? Listen to Napoleon Hill folks, for the best is yet to come. “A man can succeed at almost anything for which he has unlimited enthusiasm.” Charles Schwab UNQUOTE WHATEVER THE MIND CAN CONCEIVE AND BELIEVE THE MIND CAN ACHIEVE   LESSON 7: ENTHUSIASM: Hill describes enthusiasm as A STATE OF MIND THAT INSPIRES AND AROUSES US TO PUT ACTION INTO THE TASK AT HAND and that it does more than this - it is CONTAGIOUS, and VITALLY AFFECTS not only THE ENTHUSIAST, but ALL WITH WHOM THEY COMES INTO CONTACT.   That latter part is especially relevant when thinking back to the lesson on INITIATIVE AND LEADERSHIP as spoken words and instructions without enthusiasm are often ineffective. “I’ve learned that people will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.” – Maya Angelou UNQUOTE Enthusiasm bears the same relationship to a human being that steam does to the locomotive - it is the vital moving force that impels action. Simply mix enthusiasm with your work and it will not seem hard or monotonous.   Enthusiasm is one of the more powerful means by which we may put into action our education, experience and knowledge. Hill points out that the, idiom, KNOWLEDGE IS POWER is only a half-truth - for KNOWLEDGE BECOMES POWER ONLY WHEN IT IS PUT INTO ACTION FOR THE ATTAINMENT OF A DEFINITE OBJECTIVE.   Yes – I think that we all recognise these days that being enthusiastic about what you are doing makes it all more engaging and interesting and Hill explains that Enthusiasm is a vital force that you can harness and use with profit. Without it we would resemble an electric battery without electricity, he says, and he’s not alone in being enthusiastic about us harnessing enthusiasm. Aldous Huxley said “The secret of genius is to carry the spirit of the child into old age, which means never losing your enthusiasm.” And Dale Carnegie said “Flaming enthusiasm, backed up by horse sense and persistence, is the quality that most frequently makes for success.” Throughout Lesson 7 Hill gives immense detail and multiple examples of how enthusiasm compels us to act, and how it is contagious to those you act with. Mix enthusiasm with your work - do something you are enthusiastic about- and you will not get tired nearly as quickly.   Hill has a simple mechanical explanation of how enthusiasm spreads. He sees our brains as both an BROADCASTING STATION and a RECEIVING STATION for enthusiasm. It both sends out and picks up vibrations.   Just one example of this is taken from Andrew Carnegie. He believed that, if you were to turn loose someone with intense enthusiasm in an industrial plant employing thousands of people, this person's enthusiasm would very quickly reach and influence every person in the plant. What’s even more fascinating to me is that this is also true in reverse. Carnegie had realised that it makes not the slightest difference whether the enthusiasm was NEGATIVE or POSITIVE, CONSTRUCTIVE or DESTRUCTIVE. I’ve certainly felt ill will spread around a production like a cold wind as well as been on shows, Guilt for example, which I was on earlier in the year, where there was a general air of goodwill and enthusiasm for the work.   Carnegie said too that IN HIS SELECTION OF EMPLOYEES FOR PROMOTION the first thing he looked for was a person’s capacity to express themselves in terms of intense enthusiasm. To Carnegie ENTHUSIASM was one of the most important traits necessary for leadership.   Hills pragmatic approach in these lessons raises yet another point that some would be careful to avoid. That enthusiasm does not come naturally to some people. I’ll attest to that one too, as I’ve met some terrific bores in my lifetime. But all is not lost if you feel that he is perhaps talking about you. He suggests that “You adopt the HABIT of PRACTICING ENTHUSIASM in your conversations with your family and your business associates and he also points out that this habit will make you more popular with those who are close to you. He suggests when practising that you read for 10 minutes daily on subjects of your choosing as the means of acquiring the habit of enthusiasm. Soon you will have no difficulty in reading in a tone of enthusiasm in connection with the things that you like best and that will transfer into your day to day voice.   I need to move on but yes – Lesson 7: ENTHUSIASM is yet another powerful ally on your path towards success.   WHATEVER THE MIND CAN CONCEIVE AND BELIEVE THE MIND CAN ACHIEVE   LESSON 8: SELF CONTROL: Aristotle wrote, “What lies in our power to do, it lies in our power not to do.” On this subject Hill begins “Enthusiasm is the vital quality that arouses you to action, while SELF-CONTROL is the balance wheel that directs your action.” So to be a person who is well "balanced," you must be a person in whom enthusiasm and self-control are equalized.   Hill examines in this lesson the scope and meaning of the term self-control saying that a person with well-developed self-control does not indulge in hatred, envy, jealousy, fear, revenge, or any similar destructive emotions. A person with well-developed self-control does not go into ecstasies or become ungovernably enthusiastic over anything or anybody.   SELF-CONFIDENCE is one of the important essentials of success, but when this faculty is developed BEYOND THE POINT OF REASON it becomes very dangerous. I think we’ve probably all met at least one self-important egotistic nut job in our lives. I think that you will agree that they are quite unpleasant to be around.   In exploring this further he identifies a few traits of a person with great self-control.   · They will not permit themselves to be influenced by the cynic or the pessimist; nor will they permit another person to do their thinking for them. They will have taken possession of their own mind and directed it to whatever ends they may desire – specifically in achieving their DEFINITE CHIEF AIM in life. · They will stimulate their imagination and enthusiasm until they have produced action, but will then control that action and not permit it to control them. · They will not hate those who do not agree with him; instead, they will endeavour to understand the reason for their disagreement, and profit by it. · They will maintain their health through exercise and diet. In Hill’s 1954 film on the Laws of success he goes a little further. He says as a person with great self control: · You will have to gain mastery over your tongue by acquiring the habit of thinking first and then speaking after you are sure that what you save will benefit you and not injure others. A loose tongue often is one's greatest liability. · You will have to exercise self-discipline and master the common tendency to strike back at those at whom you have a cause REAL OR IMAGINARY for a grievance because your every thought and every act which benefits or injures another person comes back to you in kind GREATLY MULTIPLIED. If you feel that you must slander another person do not speak it but write it write it in the stands near the water's edge then move away from it until the tides have flown. · You will have to exercise self-discipline over all of your emotions particularly your emotions of love, hate, fear and sex. These are the BIG FOUR of your emotions and they can make you or break you according to the extent of discipline you exercise over them. Someone with poor self-control may have these traits. · They will have a habit of forming opinions before studying the facts. · They will have the habit of spending beyond their needs and he adds too that this habit will be passed on to their children. Finally your MENTAL ATTITUDE needs discipline and control at all times. Lacking in this particular discipline will drive away friends, destroy opportunities to get ahead, bring on physical and mental illness and make peace of mind impossible.   I could go on. Hill has a terrific rant about people with no self control MORTGAGING THEIR FUTURE LIVES TO BUY AUTOMOBILES which is still fairly relevant today I must add. “He who reigns within himself, and rules passions, desires, and fears, is more than a king.” John Milton UNQUOTE This is a TRULY VAST CHAPTER in which Hill again gives multitudes of real-life examples, but let me move to the end this sampler that I’m building for you. Hill puts forward that SELF-DISCIPLINE IS THE MOST ESSENTIAL FACTOR IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PERSONAL POWER, because LACK OF IT works hardships on those who become its victims, and THOSE WHO DO NOT EXERCISE IT suffer the loss of a great power which they could use in the achievement of their DEFINITE CHIEF AIM.   WHATEVER THE MIND CAN CONCEIVE AND BELIEVE THE MIND CAN ACHIEVE   LESSON 9 – THE HABIT OF DOING MORE THAN PAID FOR. This entire lesson is devoted to the offering of evidence that it really pays to render more and better service than one is paid to render. Later in life Hill was still pushing this particular lesson and so it pays to listen up and see how you can utilise it. The habit of going the extra mile is the habit of rendering more service and better service than one is expected to render and doing it with a positive mental attitude. He refers to it to as THE MAGIC PRINCIPLE OF SELF ADVANCEMENT, and I just love that. “When You Do More Than You're Paid to Do, You Will Eventually Be Paid More For What You Do.” Zig Ziglar UNQUOTE There are many sound reasons why you should develop the habit of performing more and better service than that for which you are paid, despite the fact that a large majority of the people are not rendering such service.   By performing more and better service than that for which you are paid, you not only exercise your service-rendering qualities, and thereby develop skill and ability of an extraordinary sort, but you build a reputation that is valuable.   If you form the habit of rendering such service you will become so adept in your work that you can command greater remuneration than those who do not perform such service. You will eventually develop sufficient strength to enable you to remove yourself from any undesirable station in life, and no one can or will desire to stop you.   This, some of you may notice, is Hill invoking LAW OF INCREASING RETURNS and he helps us to understand it with this analogy - The farmer carefully prepares the ground, then sows his wheat and waits while the LAW OF INCREASING RETURNS brings back the seed he has sown, plus a many-fold increase.   He goes on to give examples of how it has worked well for so many and proves how it is applicable to our life and work… Henry Ford, he says, received more and better service than the average by paying more wages than the average.   At a single stroke, through the inauguration of that minimum wage policy, Ford attracted the best labour on the market and placed a premium upon the privilege of working in his plant and he gives further examples in plenty - stores taking back returns without argument, in order to keep their customer for the long term would be a good example. He goes on to say that you owe it to yourself to find out just how you can apply this law to best advantage.   To help you apply this rule to your life and work, Hill developed what he called the “QQ & A” formula which is a short form way of remembering, that the QUALITY of service render. plus the QUANTITY of service you render, plus the mental attitude in which you render service, determine the space you occupy in your chosen calling and the compensation you get from your services. That’s QQ&A.   Hill lists these specific benefits to help to convince you that this is not some hocus pocus but a powerful tactic which will benefit you greatly.   1. This habit will bring you to the favourable attention of those who can and will provide you with opportunities to promote yourself into a better circumstance. 2. This the great natural law of increasing returns will bring back greater than average compensation. 3. Following this habit will make you indispensable in your chosen occupation or calling therefore it will place you in a position to write your own ticket. 4. This habit will help you to excel in your line of work because each time you render service you endeavour to do a better job than you did previously. 5. If you work for a salary or wages this habit will give you preference when work is slack and others are laid off. 6. It will help you to benefit by the law of contrast because the others around you will not be going the first mile let alone the second mile. 7. Following this habit of doing your very best in all of your efforts and doing it in a pleasing mental attitude will improve your personality and make you liked by others/ 8. It will also help you to develop a keen and alert imagination because you will be continuously seeking new and better ways of rendering useful service. 9. It will inspire you to move on your own personal initiative instead of waiting to be told what to do a habit which is the first step in leadership. 10. Develop greater self-reliance and more courage to move ahead without the fear of criticism from others. 11. The one thing it does which if it benefited you in no other way would justify you in adopting it. It helps you to master the one habit which heads the list of causes of failure THE DESTRUCTIVE HABIT OF PROCRASTINATION. 12. Going the extra mile influences other people to respect your integrity and inspires them to go out of their way to cooperate with you in a friendly spirit. 13. This habit helps you to develop definiteness of purpose which is the starting point of all personal success and it stops you from drifting through life without knowing what you want or where you are going. 14. And here is the grand payoff which this habit gives you it provides you with the one and only excuse for asking for a promotion to a better station in life or a higher pay obviously if you are doing no more than you are being paid for then you are receiving payment for all to which you are entitled and you have not a single excuse for asking for more pay or a better position. If you understand this point and appreciate its significance to you… and 15. Last but not least the habit of going the extra mile conditions your mind to maintain a mastermind alliance with others. This is important, remember, as ORGANIZED EFFORT IS THE SOURCE OF ALL POWER. “Render more service than that which you are paid and you will soon be paid for more than you render. The law of increasing returns takes care of this.” – Napoleon Hill UNQUOTE Summing Up   So to recap on today’s lessons…   LESSON 6 - IMAGINATION: You will never have a definite purpose in life, you will never have self-confidence, you will never have initiative and leadership - unless you first create these qualities in your imagination and see yourself in possession of them. LESSON 7 - ENTHUSIASM: A state of mind that inspires and arouses one to put action into the task at hand - it is contagious, and vitally affects not only the enthusiast, but all with whom they come into contact. LESSON 8 – SELF CONTROL: When you take control over the thoughts you are thinking, then you can take control of your success. SELF-DISCIPLINE IS THE MOST ESSENTIAL FACTOR IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PERSONAL POWER because LACK OF IT works hardships on those who become its victims, and THOSE WHO DO NOT EXERCISE IT suffer the loss of a great power which they could use in the achievement of their DEFINITE CHIEF AIM. LESSON 9 – THE HABIT OF DOING MORE THAN PAID FOR: If you are going to whine about your work, then you are not going anywhere. Do the work you have in front of you, then ask what else you may do. By doing this, you make yourself valuable, and you will surely reach a point where you are being paid handsomely. Valuable employees are... valuable. This is also and especially true when you are working for yourself. The Law of Increasing Returns states that by doing more or giving more service than you are paid to do, the universe will reward you with greater compensation than the money you gave up doing the extra work.   Call To Action   I am committed to delivering you this 6 part series within the series and I hope that you are finding it as enlightening as I did. I realise very much that there’s some big ideas being introduced here in rapid succession but to quote Napoleon Hill on this “Don’t be afraid of a little opposition. Remember that the kite of success generally rises against the wind of adversity – not with it.”   Your call to action today is to take a few minutes to simply consider all that has been said. If you have to then go back and listen again with a notepad and pen then do so, and I’ve got links to various downloads of the full text on the official website so go there and grab one if this series on the Law of Success is hitting the mark with you.   Ending Confucius says The man who moves a mountain begins by carrying away small stones. We’ve got three more shows to go in this book series so I want you to stay with me. This is valuable stuff I hope you’ll agree – and with it you can change your life. I’ll end with the words of self-help author Karen Salmansohn who said - What if I told you that 10 years from now, your life would be exactly the same? I doubt you'd be happy. So, why are you so afraid of change?   Now - take control of your own destiny, keep on shootin’, join me next time on Film Pro Productivity. • The music you can hear right now is Adventures by A Himitsu • You can view the show notes for this episode on the official website filmproproductivity.com • You can follow my personal account on Twitter and Instagram @fight_director or follow the show on Twitter @filmproprodpod or on Facebook @Filmproproductivity • Please support the show by subscribing, spreading the word and leaving an AWESOME review.     References: https://owlcation.com/humanities/The-Law-of-Success-by-Napoleon-Hill-A-Quick-Overview   https://www.yourfriend4life.com/law-of-increasing-returns/ Thanks: A Himitsu Music: Adventures by A Himitsu https://www.soundcloud.com/a-himitsuCreative Commons — Attribution 3.0 Unported— CC BY 3.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/b... Music released by Argofox https://www.youtu.be/8BXNwnxaVQE Music provided by Audio Library https://www.youtu.be/MkNeIUgNPQ8 ––– • Contact the artist: x.jonaz@gmail.com https://www.facebook.com/ahimitsuhttps://www.twitter.com/ahimitsu1 https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgFwu-j5-xNJml2FtTrrB3A

Henry B. Eyring

My guest this week is Bill Gurley, a general partner at Benchmark Capital and one my favorite investment thinkers. As you’ll hear, despite enormous success through his career, Bill is clearly still in love with business and investing. Where many might discuss past glories, I’ve been incredibly impressed with how both Bill and his partners emphasize the current portfolio and market landscape. I’m thankful to have had the chance to speak with him in this format. I hope you enjoy our conversation. For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast. Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub. Follow Patrick on Twitter at @patrick_oshag   Show Notes 1:13 - (First Question) – The idea of increasing returns             1:21 – Competiting Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-in By Historical Events             2:07 – Complex Systems Theory – Santa Fe Institute 4:35 – Markers that could be a sign of network effect in a company 6:27 – The opportunities for companies to capture network effect 8:46 – Are there certain teams/leaders that are more conducive to leading a network effect company 11:55 – Liquidity quality 13:35 – How important is the revenue model at the beginning 15:59 – Fascination with Nextdoor             17:56 – Paradox of Choice 18:39 – Finding opportunities 20:17 – Potential marketplaces and assets that could be commoditized             20:20 – All Markets Are Not Created Equal: 10 Factors To Consider When Evaluating Digital Marketplaces 21:39 – Usage yield on the world’s assets 23:50 – Has technology changed the world of value investing 26:28 – Hyper niche marketplaces 27:52 – Challenges of labor marketplaces 30:12 – User generated content businesses 32:44 – People who are capable of building UGC businesses 33:16 – His interest in Discord 34:31 – Factors of a healthy marketplace 37:57 – Fools’ gold in marketplace businesses 39:04 – How influx of cash is impacting the marketplace business landscape             40:43 – All Revenue is Not Created Equal: The Keys to the 10X Revenue Club 43:20 – How does the influx of money into the space impact him 46:44 – Spending money to attack top brands 50:32 – Regulatory capture 53:36 – His thoughts on the IPO market 57:49 – How did he realize this was his passion 1:00:42 – Qualifying his passion 1:01:52 – Favorite thing about working with entrepreneurs 102:48 – Honing your craft 1:04:33 – Making yourself a good mentor 1:05:56 – Kindest thing anyone has done for him   Learn More For more episodes go to InvestorFieldGuide.com/podcast.  Sign up for the book club, where you’ll get a full investor curriculum and then 3-4 suggestions every month at InvestorFieldGuide.com/bookclub Follow Patrick on twitter at @patrick_oshag  

Not-for-profit organisations approach the treatment of cash in different ways. In this podcast episode, you’ll hear Andrew Gillon, Senior Investment Advisor – Pitcher Partners Investment Services, discuss whether cash can be considered a short, medium or long-term asset or investment, whether it is a secure investment, and whether cash should be considered part of any strategic asset allocation for a not-for-profit organisation. Andrew is in conversation with Murray Wyatt FCPA, Group Chairman, Director – Morrows. This is the fourth podcast in a five-part series with Pitcher Partners on key issues in the not-for-profit sector.

Chris Chetland is a musician, mastering engineer, & theoretical biologist. He co-founded Kog Transmissions & continues to run award-winning Kog Studio. Chris’ early decision to include a CD with a gig ticket was inspired by Brian Arthur’s Theory of Increasing Returns. Please subscribe to the podcast & check www.verbalhighs.com

Join the Acquired Limited Partner program! https://kimberlite.fm/acquired/ (works best on mobile)   Ben & David welcome very special guest Tom Alberg, board member and first lead investor in Amazon.com, to cover the IPO of "earth’s most customer-centric company". From longterm thinking to flywheels to riding big waves, this episode is chock full of lessons and stories from the journey of building one of tech’s most iconic franchises. We hope you enjoy listening as much as we did recording it!    Topics covered include: Tom’s “prolific” bio from the Amazon S-1 Jeff Bezos’s journey from a Vice President at the New York hedge fund D. E. Shaw to founding Amazon in a Bellevue, WA garage in the summer of 1994 Jeff’s longterm thinking as evident in the early days of Amazon, and his approach that "failure is ok, but not trying things is not ok”  Raising the seed money for Amazon before product launch, how Tom met Jeff and decided to invest despite the “high” valuation Tom's (and Jeff’s) focus on the power of targeting large and growing markets  Amazon’s actual overnight success after launching the website: according to Tom at the time, "By the second or third week… It was clear there was a trend here.” How Amazon’s venture round, led by John Doerr of Kleiner Perkins, came together in the spring of 1996  Amazon’s torrid growth through 1996, Jeff’s mantra of “get big fast” to win the land grab of online book selling, and the board’s decision to prepare for a public offering in the spring of 1997  How Frank Quattrone and Bill Gurley, then of Deutsche Bank, won the lead position for the Amazon IPO, beating out more storied firms such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley  Development of the flywheel concept within Amazon, as an outgrowth of maniacal focus on creating superior customer experience Amazon's public offering on May 15, 1997 at $18 per share (effectively $1.50 relative to today’s stock price after splits), raising $54M at a market capitalization of $438M — and subsequently trading down during the first few months following the IPO   Amazon and Jeff’s management of investor perceptions of the company, and ability to sell the longterm vision over short term profits — “you get the investors you ask for”  The creation of the first annual letter to Amazon shareholders included in the company’s 1997 annual report (and republished every year since), and then-CFO Joy Covey’s role and contributions to it  Raising convertible debt just before the peak of the dotcom bubble and subsequent ability to survive the burst, and the impact of the downturn on Amazon culture   The Carve Out: Ben: the band The Album Leaf David: Cormac McCarthy (author of All the Pretty Horses, No Country for Old Men, etc)’s contribution to W. Brian Arthur’s landmark paper about the economics of the internet, “Increasing Returns and the New World of Business” Tom: Michael Lewis’s latest book The Undoing Project, chronicling the Nobel Prize winning partnership between Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky in developing the field of behavioral economics

Pour écouter cette chronique donnée sur AligreFMApple et les ouvriers chinoisSteve Jobs est mort il y a tout juste quatre mois entouré de l’admiration générale. Le cours d’Apple, l’entreprise qu’il a fondée, a depuis sa mort, explosé, passant de 410€ à  450$, ses bénéfices n’ont jamais été aussi élevés, 13 milliards de $ pour le seul quatrième trimestre de 20011, soit deux fois plus que pour la même période de 2010, et ses réserves de trésorerie sont considérables. Inutile de donner un chiffre qui à ces niveaux ne veut plus dire grand chose. Il suffit pour donner leur mesure d’indiquer qu’elles sont plus importantes que celles du gouvernement américain. Apple a plus de liquidités que le gouvernement de la plus grande puissance mondiale. Tout cela grâce à ces iphones, ipods et ipads, tout cela grâce à nous en somme.Tout devrait donc aller pour le mieux à Cupertino, au siège social d’Apple et tout irait effectivement pour le mieux si quelques journalistes du New-York-Times n’étaient allés enquêter sur les conditions de travail des ouvriers chinois qui fabriquent ses produits. Car, bien sur, tout est fabriqué en Asie, en Chine. Et le résultat de leur enquête jette une ombre très vilaine sur l’entreprise préférée de tous les amateurs de technologie.On savait depuis longtemps que les conditions de travail sont dans les usines chinoises particulièrement pénibles, mais cette enquête en donne de nouvelles illustrations. Ouvriers qui travaillent de très longues heures, que l’on réveille en pleine nuit pour satisfaire les exigences du client, qui opèrent dans des milieux dangereux… On est plus du coté du servage que des relations industrielles acceptées dans les pays démocratiques.Véritable réquisitoire, cette série d’articles met en évidence la responsabilité d’Apple alors même que ses responsables disent tout faire pour assurer des conditions de travail satisfaisantes aux ouvriers de ses sous-traitants (voir, notamment, ici). Et il est vrai qu’il fait signer des chartes et envoie des inspecteurs mais ses exigences sont si grandes que les entreprises sont amenées à « tourner les coins ronds » pour les satisfaire.Mais tout cela est déjà connu et j’ai évoqué ici même, il y a deux ans, la répression brutale de manifestations d’ouvriers de Wintec, un des sous-traitants chinois d’Apple et de Nokia dont on ne payait pas les heures supplémentaires. Et si je vous parle ce matin de cette enquête, c’est qu’elle nous donne, au delà de ces informations sur les conditions de travail, un éclairage très intéressant sur les méthodes de l’industrie chinoise et sur ce qui fait aujourd’hui son succès. Méthodes qu’il est intéressant de connaître alors que l’on s’interroge sur le meilleur moyen de réindustrialiser la France.Au delà des salairesLorsque l’on parle de la concurrence des pays émergents et, notamment, de la Chine, on pense au coût du travail et on explique leur succès par ce seul avantage. Il existe, naturellement, mais il n’y a pas que lui. Le premier article de cette série donne un exemple éclairant de ces autres avantages. En 2007, à quelques mois de la sortie de l’iphone, Steve Jobs découvre que le revêtement de plexiglass prévu par les ingénieurs d’Apple pour l’écran se raie facilement. Il demande qu’on le remplace par du verre, ce qui est techniquement compliqué. Apple lance un appel d’offre. Une entreprise chinoise répond. Lorsque les ingénieurs du constructeur informatique se rendent sur place, l’entreprise a déjà acheté du verre pour faire des essais de coupe et mis à la disposition de son client potentiel des ingénieurs pour faire presque gratuitement les essais. Un mois plus tard, la solution est trouvée, la production peut commencer, mais les milliers de salariés nécessaires pour  la réaliser ont été recrutés, les dortoirs dans lequel ils vont dormir construits. Incapable de tenir ce rythme l’entreprise américaine qui avait été initialement retenue a perdu le marché.Première caractéristique donc de l’industrie chinoise : son aptitude à anticiper les demandes et à faire gagner à son client quelques semaines, voire quelques mois. C’est au moins aussi important pour Apple qui avait mis en place toute sa politique commerciale que des salaires faibles. Et cela n’est possible que parce que ces entreprises, qui veulent avoir le marché d’Apple, sont disposées à investir massivement pour l’obtenir.Seconde caractéristique : sa capacité à lancer rapidement des productions de masse. Le marché des produits électroniques grand public est mondial. Dès la première année de la commercialisation de son Iphone, Apple en a vendu près d’1,4 millions, l’année suivante, il en a vendu plus de 11 millions et 40 millions en 2010. Les démarrages des produits qui ont du succès sont foudroyants. Et ils ne sont possibles que parce que les industriels chargés de les fabriquer peuvent  quasi instantanément ou, du moins, très rapidement, mobiliser des capacités de production considérables. Et ceci grâce aux conditions de travail de ses salariés, serviables et corvéables à merci, mais aussi grâce à un marché du travail très profond qui lui permet de recruter rapidement , lorsque nécessaire, des milliers d’ouvriers, de techniciens ou d’ingénieurs et de les mettre immédiatement au travail.Lorsque l’on demande aux responsables d’Apple pourquoi ils ne fabriquent plus leurs produits aux Etats-Unis, ils répondent, toujours d’après l’article du New-York-Times : « parce qu’il n’y a tout simplement plus assez d’ouvriers avec les compétences nécessaires aux Etats-Unis, plus assez d’usines avec la réactivité et la flexibilité nécessaire. »Les vertus de l’agglomérationL’article met en avant un autre aspect capital qui explique le succès de l’industrie chinoise : les vertus de l’agglomération. Car, faut-il le rappeler ? les salaires chinois sont depuis longtemps très faibles et ce n’est que depuis quelques années que ce pays est devenu l’usine du monde.L’entreprise américaine qui avait perdu l’appel d’offres d’Apple sur l’écran de verre, Corning Glass, n’a pas abandonné la partie. Bien au contraire, elle a continué de proposer son offre aux concurrents d’Apple, la plupart installés en Asie. Et elle a construit des usines dans cette partie du monde. L’article donne deux chiffres qui expliquent : pour transporter les écrans de l’usine qui les fabrique en Chine à celles qui montent l’iphone, il faut 8 heures de transport. Pour les transporter des Etats-Unis en bateau, il aurait fallu 35 jours. Avec l’avion cela aurait été plus rapide, mais à des coûts extravagants. La puissance industrielle de la Chine tient à sa géographie industrielle. Plutôt que de disperser ses activités industrielles sur tout le territoire elle a su créer des agglomérations industrielles qui mettent au service de ses clients tout ce dont ils ont besoin. Un des responsables d’Apple interrogé par les journalistes du NYT l’explique ainsi : « toute la chaine de production est aujourd’hui en Chine. Vous avez besoin de joints en caoutchouc ? Vous les trouverez dans l’usine à coté ? Vous avez besoin d’un millions de vis ? L’usine est en face. Vous avez besoin d’un tournevis un peu différent ? cela prendra trois heures pour le trouver. »Ce n’est pas une nouveauté. En 2009, Paul Krugman, économiste célèbre qui se trouve être aussi un spécialiste de la géographie économique, publiait un article (Increasing Returns in a Comparative Advantage World) dans lequel il mettait en évidence le rôle de ces effets d’agglomération.Cet effet d’agglomération tient à la géographie, on trouve tout à proximité, ce qui réduit les coûts logistiques, mais aussi à la structure de l’économie chinoise. A l’inverse de la notre, dominée par quelques grands groupes, elle comprend des milliers d’entreprises spécialisées sur un créneau étroit, les vis par exemple, qui sont en concurrence, qui sont à proximité et qui offrent donc à l’industriel à la recherche d’un produit particulier toutes chances de trouver rapidement ce qu’il souhaite et dans les meilleures conditions puisque, concurrence aidant, toutes sont intéressées à répondre au plus vite à la demande. Si j’osais une image et pour en rester aux vis, l’économie chinoise ressemble au sous-sol du BHV où l’on trouve à peu près tout, en matière de vis, sous la main, alors que nos économies ressemblent beaucoup plus à ces grandes surfaces qui n’offrent à leurs clients qu’un nombre limité de références et imposent à celui qui cherche un modèle de vis particulier une longue recherche. On comprend que des industriels soient séduits par ce modèle qui allège considérablement les coûts de développement d’un produit. Une grande flexibilitéL’autre grande caractéristique est la flexibilité. Ces usines savent répondre très rapidement à la demande, elles savent s’adapter à ce que souhaitent leurs clients. Et ceci parce qu’elles utilisent beaucoup de main d’œuvre. Nos industries ont mis l’accent sur l’automatisation pour réduire les coûts du travail humain. Les Chinois ont aussi des usines très automatisées, mais ils en ont d’autres qui utilisent beaucoup de main d’œuvre, tout simplement parce que celle-ci est bon marché. De manière générale, il semble, d’ailleurs, que les Chinois utilisent infiniment plus de main d’œuvre ouvrière que nous dans leurs usines. L’avantage est qu’il est plus facile de reprogrammer une fabrication avec des hommes auxquels on peut demander de modifier quasi instantanément leur production, qu’à des machines dont la programmation est toujours longue et difficile. On peut confier à des hommes des tâches qu’il est très difficile d’automatiser ou qui demanderaient, pour pouvoir l’être de très longs développements que les les fabricants de machines-outils ne pourraient engager que s’ils étaient assurés d’avoir un débouché important. Les clients n’ont évidemment pas le temps d’attendre.Résumons donc : la Chine a un coût du travail bien plus faible que le notre, elle offre à ses salariés des conditions de travail souvent inadmissibles, mais son succès ne tient pas seulement à cela. Il tient aussi, et peut-être surtout pour l’avenir, à sa réactivité, à sa flexibilité, à sa structure et à son organisation géographique qui lui donnent les moyens de mobiliser rapidement les ressources considérables dont ont besoin les industriels aujourd’hui. Et dont ils auront plus encore besoin demain.La concentration des industries capables de travailler ensemble dans la même région est sans doute le trait le plus remarquable de cette organisation industrielle. Je disais tout à l’heure que Paul Krugman en avait fait la théorie dans un article en 2009. Un autre économiste, Richard Baldwin est rentré plus dans le détail (Trade and industrialisation after globalisation’s 2’nd unbundling). Il montre que la fragmentation de la chaine de production, caractéristique de l’industrie moderne, est allée avec une concentration de cette industrie dans des régions géographiques étroites. Les coûts du transport n’ont pas disparu. Je parle aujourd’hui de la Chine, mais ne même phénomène explique sans doute le succès de l’Allemagne dont les industriels ont su nouer des liens étroits avec les industries des ex-pays socialistes qui sont à ses frontières et dont les coûts de main d’œuvre sont plus faibles.Un modèle industriel adaptée à la demande…Au delà des critiques sur la gestion des hommes qui confine, je l’ai dit, à un quasi-servage, c’est la modernité et l’efficacité de l’appareil chinois qui frappe. Il s’est adapté à la demande des industriels occidentaux. Non pas en jouant exclusivement sur le coût du travail comme d’autres pays en voie de développement mais en construisant une économie qui répond exactement aux attentes de l’économie contemporaine. Sa capacité à mobiliser rapidement ressources humaines et techniques lui permet de répondre aux attentes de ces entreprises qui travaillent pour un marché mondial. J’ai donné l’exemple d’Apple et de son iphone, mais plein d’autres industriels sont dans la même logique. Une logique qui suppose que l’on puisse rapidement produire en quantités considérables pour fournir simultanément des clients aux quatre coins du monde mais qui suppose aussi une grande flexibilité : ces produits se renouvellent très vite. Nous en sommes déjà à la troisième ou quatrième génération d’iphone.Sa flexibilité lui permet également de répondre aux exigences du commerce électronique, sur internet, qui demande que l’on se rapproche de la fabrication à la demande. On ne peut pas dans l’univers du commerce sur internet stocker tous les produits que l’on vend, puisque l’on ne sait pas combien on en vendra dans quelques semaines ou quelques mois. Il faut donc trouver une solution industrielle qui permette de les fabriquer pratiquement à la demande. Ce modèle existe, c’est celui qu’avait imaginé le constructeur informatique Dell. L’industrie chinoise, avec son coté BHV dont je parlais tout à l’heure s’y prête particulièrement bien. Le sous-traitant stocke les composants des différents modèles d’un même produit, un téléphone, une tablette électronique… et les assemble à la demande. Et en quelques heures, le produit peut être expédié au client qui l’a commandé. Ce modèle ne peut évidemment fonctionner de manière satisfaisante que si le marché est très vaste, c’est-à-dire global.Cette modernité profonde du modèle chinois de production industrielle est trop rarement soulignée. Or, elle est capitale. Elle veut tout simplement dire que l’industrie chinoise pourra résister à une hausse du coût du travail à laquelle elle ne saurait échapper. Ces salariés que l’on traite si mal vont se rebeller, ils ont commencé de le faire et les pays occidentaux qui voient leurs emplois ouvriers disparaître vont exercer une pression forte sur la Chine pour qu’elle respecte mieux les règles sociales. Mais ces hausses du coût du travail que l’on peut anticiper ne ramèneront pas du travail chez nous. Et les emplois ?Pour se défendre, Apple indique que l’essentiel de la valeur ajoutée de ses produits est restée aux Etats-Unis. Dans un article publié dans le New-York Times en 2007, son économiste en chef, Hal Varian, indiquait, en s’appuyant sur les travaux de jeunes chercheurs, que plus de 54% de la valeur ajoutée d’un ipod fabriqué en Chine restait aux Etats-Unis, dont 46% pour la distribution et près de 50% pour Apple, ses ingénieurs… C’était en 2007, mais on peut penser que les chiffres pour l’iphone sont à peu près du même ordre. Cette ligne de défense n’est évidemment pas complètement satisfaisante : la valeur ajoutée et les emplois sont deux choses différentes. Si plus de la moitié de la valeur ajoutée reste aux Etats-Unis, le plus gros des emplois est en Chine, ce qui ne convient pas évidemment pas aux salariés américains au chômage. Voici, pour finir, quelques chiffres que je tire de cette série d’articles qui a servi de support à cette chronique. Apple emploie 40 000 personnes aux Etats-Unis et 20 000 ailleurs dans le monde tandis que 700 000, oui 700 000, personnes fabriquent et assemblent ses produits en Chine et ailleurs en Asie. Apple crée donc bien des emplois, mais pas là où on les imagine…Face à ces évolutions, on peut être tenté par le protectionnisme, il serait plus sage d’approfondir ce modèle chinois et de voir s’il ne serait pas possible de s’en inspirer.Le 31/01/2012