Podcasts about reuters u

Gabriella Borter, a reporter on the Reuters U.S. National Affairs team, and talks to Anna and Raven on the security measures that will take place for the Presidential Inauguration today and what Washington D.C. will look like, and expectations for spectators and local businesses!

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe [DS][CB] know their plan has failed, the narrative of climate change is done. Ice in the Antartic is 17% higher now. The [CB] move to lower rates is having the opposite effect. The [D]s and the [CB] tried to trap Trump in the debt ceiling, he will turn it all around and have them remove the debt ceiling.  The [DS] is out of options, they only have two plan they can use to stop Trump. Try to make sure that he doesn't get into office and the other is when he gets into office bring the economy, and the world down around him. They will use cyber warfare to kick it off. The [DS] loves to project what they are about to do, Netflix just launched Zero Day Cyber attack. Countermeasures in place, this time its different.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy https://twitter.com/TonyClimate/status/1871939764922028465 Cold Weather-Related Deaths Soar Despite ‘Global Warming' — Doubled Over Past 20 Years Despite the supposedly catastrophic threat of global warming, cold weather-related deaths across the United States are on the rise. According to a study published in The Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), the number of Americans who have died from the cold has doubled between the period of 1999 to 2022. Dr. Rishi Wadhera, an associate professor of health policy and management at Harvard University, and his team conducted a study revealing the need for “public health interventions to improve access to warming centers and indoor heating for vulnerable populations.” The research analyzed U.S. death certificates for over 63.5 million Americans who died between 1999 and 2022. During that time, exposure to cold temperatures was identified as a direct or contributing factor in 0.06% of deaths. The study found that the rate of cold-related deaths more than doubled over the 23-year period, increasing from 0.44 deaths per 100,000 people in 1999 to 0.92 deaths per 100,000 in 2022. This amounts to an annual rise of 3.4% in cold-related mortality. Source: thegatewaypundit.com US holiday retail sales come in above forecast, Mastercard says (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales rose 3.8% between Nov. 1 and Dec. 24, as customers turned to last minute shopping due to intense holiday season promotions, a Mastercard report showed on Thursday. The jump in sales was higher than a 3.2% rise forecast by Mastercard in September and well above a 3.1% increase from a year earlier, with the last five days of the season accounting for 10% of all holiday spending. Mastercard SpendingPulse measures in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment. It excludes automotive sales. source: marketscreeners.com   https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1872274428098408878   https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1872274432460534031 Milei Unveils Ambitious Nuclear Plan To Position Argentina As Global Energy Player In a bold move to transform Argentina into a global energy powerhouse, President Javier Milei introduced the "Argentine Nuclear Plan" on Friday, with the goal of harnessing nuclear energy as a core component of the nation's future. The plan outlines the construction of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), compact nuclear units designed to provide power to commercial sectors and other large-scale operations. "After years of stagnation, nuclear energy is making a powerful comeback, and we are determined to lead, not follow,"   “I have more good news, and that is that the lowering of taxes will continue,

TV/Radio Host Tyler Jones (@TylerJonesLive) is joined by Reuters U.S. Motorsports Writer Lewis Franck (@LewisFranck).(0:30-2:40) Ryan Blaney wins at Iowa.(2:40-9:00) Introducing Lewis Franck.(9:00-34:20) Lewis Franck on Kyle Larson's attempt at the double, Josef Newgarden's chances to run the double, Ryan Blaney's chances to defend his title, Stewart-Haas Racing shutdown and New Hampshire Race Preview.(34:20-52:30) News and Notes: Martin Truex Jr. announces retirement, Kyle Busch speculates about future with Hendrick or JGR, Mario Andretti on bringing the Andretti's to NASCAR and New Hampshire Odds.(52:30-1:06:00) Ask David with Lewis.Hear it all on "Let's Go Racing with David Starr!" and make sure to follow/subscribe on Apple, Spotify, etc.!

In this episode of the Energy News Beat Daily Standup, the host, Stuart Turley discussing the significant climate damage caused by Russia's war in Ukraine, unexpected Republican benefits from Biden's green policies, a rare earth discovery in Norway challenging China's dominance, Tesla's partnership with Baidu for self-driving cars, and the declining U.S. oil and gas rig count. He also highlights China's increased crude stockpiling amidst weak refining output, reflecting geopolitical and market dynamics.Highlights of the Podcast00:00 - Intro01:29 - Russia's War in Ukraine Has Produced $32 Billion in Climate Damage03:42 - The biggest winners of Biden's green climate policies? Republicans.07:01 - Rare Earth Discovery Could Topple China's Dominance08:44 - Tesla and Baidu Partner for Full Self-Driving Test10:25 - US drillers cut oil and gas rig count to lowest since January 2022 -Baker Hughes11:37 - China Accelerates Crude Stockpiling Amid Weak Refining Output12:50 - OutroPlease see the links below or articles that we discuss in the podcast.Russia's War in Ukraine Has Produced $32 Billion in Climate DamageJune 17, 2024 Mariel AlumitCLIMATEWIRE | In November 2022, the United Nations resolved that Russia should pay reparations for the losses, damages and injuries caused by its invasion of Ukraine. Now, some scientists say those payments should include compensation for […]The biggest winners of Biden's green climate policies? Republicans.June 17, 2024 Mariel AlumitWhen President Joe Biden's massive climate bill passed Congress in 2022, Republican Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina complained it was boondoggle. The Inflation Reduction Act, which contained the largest climate investment in US history, […]Rare Earth Discovery Could Topple China's DominanceJune 17, 2024 Mariel AlumitAmining company's discovery of continental Europe's largest deposit of rare earth elements (REEs) could chip away at China's global dominance over the materials, which are used to make a range of critical technological and military […]Tesla and Baidu Partner for Full Self-Driving TestJune 17, 2024 Mariel AlumitTesla is testing its Full Self-Driving system in China, ahead of a planned rollout later this year. The company has partnered with Baidu for mapping and navigation software to support FSD in China. The expansion […]US drillers cut oil and gas rig count to lowest since January 2022 -Baker HughesJune 17, 2024 Mariel AlumitJune 14 (Reuters) – U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating to the lowest since January 2022, energy services firm Baker Hughes (BKR.O), said in its closely followed report […]China Accelerates Crude Stockpiling Amid Weak Refining OutputJune 17, 2024 Mariel AlumitChina accelerated the pace of stockpiling crude oil inventories in May amid lower refining throughput and weaker crude imports compared to last year, in further bearish signs about China's apparent oil demand so far this […]Follow Stuart On LinkedIn and TwitterFollow Michael On LinkedIn and TwitterENB TopEnergy DashboardENB PodcastENB Substack– Get in Contact With The Show –

Okay, look, we admit it. We are a tiny bit older than 20 years-old and sure, that makes us the "old guys." But, it does mean we have lived through some good and bad decisions. Particularly when it comes to investing. Chris, Saied and Haroon open the show by breaking down their most important lessons in investing. Some have lead to big wins and some have lead to big losses. We hope they help you decide whether or not you are will to take the risk and invest on your own. ➡️ After a prolongated trip down memory lane, the boys dive right in to the week's important data and what yo should watch out for, Neel Kashkari is doing Neel Kashkari things again and rental vacancy for apartments is at its highest level in 4 years. Then, just after the hour mark, they pivot to Haroon's pop culture segment which includes all the things you should know from the past week. We got rap beefs, met galas and artificial intelligence.

In this episode of the Energy News Beat Daily Standup, the hosts, Michael Tanner and Stuart Turley discuss several key issues affecting the energy market. They begin by examining the impact of China's EV market oversupply and its potential repercussions on global automakers like Tesla. The conversation then shifts to criticisms of President Biden's energy policies, which are purportedly harming American automakers and boosting reliance on foreign oil, potentially undermining national interests. Further discussed are the falling diesel prices signaling a global economic slowdown, the complexities of managing excessive solar energy production in California's power grid, and geopolitical dynamics influencing oil exports, particularly involving OPEC, the U.S., and Saudi Arabia's economic strategies. They conclude with insights into corporate maneuvers in the energy sector, highlighting a proxy battle involving Silver Bow and Cambridge, and the broader implications of these corporate strategies on the market and geopolitical landscape.Highlights of the Podcast00:00 - Intro01:36 - China's state planner warns intensified EV price war on oversupply03:55 - Biden's damaging war against American energy production06:16 - Weak Diesel Prices Reflect Global Economic Slowdown08:22 - Kurdish Media Allege OPEC Request for Resumption of Oil Exports to Turkey11:03 - Rooftop solar panels are flooding California's grid. That's a problem.15:19 - US crude futures climb back into positive territory21:14 - Outro Please see the links below or articles that we discuss in the podcast.China's state planner warns intensified EV price war on oversupplyApril 22, 2024 Mariel AlumitSHANGHAI, April 22 (Reuters) – China's state planner expects an intensified price war among automakers of electric cars and plug-in hybrids this year because of overhanging supply, among other issues, the government body said in […]Biden's damaging war against American energy productionApril 22, 2024 Mariel AlumitThe United States is the largest oil producer in the world. In 2023, we pumped out a record 12.9 million barrels every day. This is a significant milestone for the American economy — but not one you will hear […]Weak Diesel Prices Reflect Global Economic SlowdownApril 22, 2024 Mariel AlumitBack in September last year, Bloomberg reported that refineries around the world were struggling to keep up with demand for diesel fuel. That imbalance led to soaring diesel prices, with the fuel gaining 60% in Europe and […] Kurdish Media Allege OPEC Request for Resumption of Oil Exports to TurkeyApril 22, 2024 Mariel AlumitJust a week after the Iraqi federal government announced it was repairing its own oil pipeline to Turkey, which would override a Kurdish oil pipeline that has been offline amidst a three-way diplomatic dispute between […]Rooftop solar panels are flooding California's grid. That's a problem.April 22, 2024 Mariel AlumitIn sunny California, solar panels are everywhere. They sit in dry, desert landscapes in the Central Valley and are scattered over rooftops in Los Angeles's urban center. By last count, the state had nearly 47 gigawatts of […]US crude futures climb back into positive territoryApril 22, 2024 Mariel AlumitHOUSTON, April 22 (Reuters) – U.S. crude futures returned to positive territory on Monday after falling on easing fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 1 […]Follow Stuart On LinkedIn and TwitterFollow Michael On LinkedIn and TwitterENB Top NewsEnergy DashboardENB PodcastENB Substack– Get in Contact With The Show –

In this episode of the Energy News Beat Daily Standup, the host, Stuart Turley, several significant energy-related stories were covered. Colorado lawmakers are grappling with a $170 million budget shortfall, exacerbated by potential bans on oil and gas drilling, raising concerns about long-term energy affordability and impacts on lower-income individuals. Meanwhile, Texas is considering the adoption of small nuclear reactors, supported by Governor Abbott, as a means to bolster energy generation while minimizing land use and environmental impact. In international waters, Russia's shadow fleet is endangering Danish waters by evading sanctions and operating self-insured tankers, posing potential ecological risks. Additionally, Oman is facilitating ship-to-ship transfers of Russian oil bound for India, highlighting the lengths countries go to circumvent sanctions. In the UK, a lack of stable energy policies threatens to cost the nation billions in missed offshore oil and gas opportunities, emphasizing the importance of responsible energy development to achieve net-zero goals while supporting economic growth. Turley encourages dialogue among energy experts and policymakers to navigate these complex challenges effectively.Highlights of the Podcast00:00 - Intro02:04 - Colorado lawmakers adopt cuts, hard choices as state faces $170 million budget shortfall04:34 - Small nuclear reactors may be coming to Texas, boosted by interest from Gov. Abbott07:38 - Russia's Shadow Fleet Is Putting Danish Waters in Danger10:12 - Oman Sees Increasing Ship-to-Ship Transfers of Russian Oil Bound for India12:11 - UK to miss out on $487 billion generated from offshore oil and gas market without stable energy policy15:55 - OutroPlease see the links below or articles that we discuss in the podcast.Colorado lawmakers adopt cuts, hard choices as state faces $170 million budget shortfallMarch 27, 2024 Mariel AlumitBetween March 15 and March 21, the six members of the Joint Budget Committee — the group of lawmakers in charge of drafting Colorado's spending plan — found themselves with a problem. With just over a […]Small nuclear reactors may be coming to Texas, boosted by interest from Gov. AbbottMarch 27, 2024 Mariel AlumitThis is the last of a three-part series on emerging energy sources and Texas' role in developing them. You can read part one, on hydrogen fuel, here, and part two, on geothermal energy, here. Gov. Greg Abbott took the stage at the […]Russia's Shadow Fleet Is Putting Danish Waters in DangerMarch 27, 2024 Mariel AlumitThe maritime order is falling apart under geopolitical pressure. It was only a matter of time before Russia's fast-growing shadow fleet, a group of vessels whose owners do their utmost to conceal their identity while […]Oman Sees Increasing Ship-to-Ship Transfers of Russian Oil Bound for IndiaMarch 27, 2024 Mariel AlumitThe waters off Oman are emerging as a hot spot for ship-to-ship transfers of Russian oil heading to India, as the US steps up scrutiny of the flows. New Discovery is the latest tanker to […]UK to miss out on $487 billion generated from offshore oil and gas market without stable energy policyMarch 27, 2024 Mariel Alumit(WO) – Without stable energy policy and a globally competitive tax regime, the UK will miss out on the lion's share of the benefits from a domestic offshore energy market that could grow to £450 […]Phillips 66 explores sale of pipeline stake worth over $1 billion, sources sayMarch 27, 2024 Mariel AlumitMarch 26 (Reuters) – U.S. oil refiner Phillips 66 (PSX.N), is exploring a sale of its 25% stake in the Rockies Express Pipeline that it hopes could be worth more than $1 billion, including debt, people […]Follow StuartOn LinkedIn and TwitterFollow Michael On LinkedIn and TwitterENB Top NewsEnergy DashboardENB PodcastENB Substack– Get in Contact With The Show –

Welcome to The Daily Wrap Up, a concise show dedicated to bringing you the most relevant independent news, as we see it, from the last 24 hours (2/21/24). As always, take the information discussed in the video below and research it for yourself, and come to your own conclusions. Anyone telling you what the truth is, or claiming they have the answer, is likely leading you astray, for one reason or another. Stay Vigilant. !function(r,u,m,b,l,e){r._Rumble=b,r[b]||(r[b]=function(){(r[b]._=r[b]._||[]).push(arguments);if(r[b]._.length==1){l=u.createElement(m),e=u.getElementsByTagName(m)[0],l.async=1,l.src="https://rumble.com/embedJS/u2q643"+(arguments[1].video?'.'+arguments[1].video:'')+"/?url="+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+"&args="+encodeURIComponent(JSON.stringify([].slice.apply(arguments))),e.parentNode.insertBefore(l,e)}})}(window, document, "script", "Rumble");   Rumble("play", {"video":"v4cbdxf","div":"rumble_v4cbdxf"}); Video Source Links (In Chronological Order): The Fluoride Lawsuit Comes to an End: Federal Judge to Decide the Future of Water Fluoridation (27) The Last American Vagabond on X: "Link: https://t.co/beEU1SQXJF" / X (27) The Last American Vagabond on X: "Two investigative journalists from The Last American Vagabond will be joining Redacted tonight. @DBrozeLiveFree to discuss the #FluorideLawsuit and @_taylorhudak to discuss #JulianAssange. Be sure to tune in!" / X (27) Caitlin Johnstone on X: "Keep in mind when you read that the US is attempting to jail a journalist for exposing "war crimes" that because of Gaza you actually now know what war crimes look like in real life. War crimes are the absolute worst of crimes where the most powerful prey on the most vulnerable.…" / X Israel Continues Attacks Against Iran In A Bid To Escalate Regional Conflict (11) The Cannabis Deception: How Your Government Stole Your Future Jay Couey PhD Interview - The COVID-19 Illusion, The Deadly Injection & The Consensus Coercion (27) Glenn Greenwald on X: "No, "American journalism" is not headed for an "extinction-level event." Corporate journalism is, and deservedly so: including the @Atlantic is: not even Steve Jobs' inherited fortune can save them. Independent journalism is thriving. This is the reality they can't accept. https://t.co/wXLWE5KzQQ" / X (21) X New Tab (27) X lyndsey on X: "I'll never forget this from 1995. The Israelis never wanted peace with the Palestinians and now they say there was a ceasefire before October 7. If a zionist wants to debate, send them this! https://t.co/yjhcHD0FFL" / X New Tab (27) UN News on X: "#BREAKING US vetoes Algerian-led draft resolution that would have, inter alia, demanded an immediate humanitarian ceasefire that must be respected by all parties IN FAVOR: 13 AGAINST: 1 (US) ABSTAIN: 1 (UK) Live coverage https://t.co/fLIqiQv9A4 https://t.co/5lqhlix7RV" / X (27) Decensored News on X: "WATCH: The US vetoes Algeria's ceasefire resolution at the UN Security Council, despite impassioned appeal from Algerian ambassador Amar Bendjama “Today, every Palestinian is a target for death, extermination, and genocide...” “A vote in favor of this draft resolution is a… https://t.co/PqEBRfIjpg" / X (27) Noura Erakat on X: "The US just issued its 3rd veto in 137 days of genocide to continue it. Against the will of 153 states which invoked Uniting for Peace twice. Against the extraordinary invocation of Art 99 by the UNSG. Against the ICJ ruling finding plausible genocide & a duty to prevent it" / X (21) Saul Staniforth on X: "At the ICJ Brazil reminds the court that in 1967 the UN Security Council directed Israel to withdraw from the Palestinian territory it had recently occupied. 56 Years later Israel is still occupying the land. https://t.co/C3tTOpxxgB" / X US pushes for UN to support temporary Gaza ceasefire, oppose Rafah assault | Reuters U.S. vetoes U.N. proposal for immediate cease fire,

Scattered Spider prompts warnings from CISA and the FBI. Phobos ransomware is an affiliate crimeware-as-a-service program. A "hack-for-hire" contractor. “Scama” in the C2C market. Our guest is Lee Clark from the RH-ISAC with a look at Holiday Season Cyber Threat Trends. Tim Eades from Cyber Mentor Fund shares recent trends in cyber venture capital, with tips on finding a good match. And the tempo of cyber operations in Russia's hybrid war. For links to all of today's stories check out our CyberWire daily news briefing: https://thecyberwire.com/newsletters/daily-briefing/12/220 Selected reading. FBI and CISA Release Advisory on Scattered Spider Group (Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency | CISA)  FBI warns on Scattered Spider hackers, urges victims to come forward (Reuters)  U.S. officials urge more information sharing on prolific cybercrime group (CyberScoop)  A deep dive into Phobos ransomware, recently deployed by 8Base group (Cisco Talos Blog)  Understanding the Phobos affiliate structure and activity (Cisco Talos Blog) Elephant Hunting | Inside an Indian Hack-For-Hire Group (SentinelOne)  How an Indian startup hacked the world (Reuters)  Scama: Uncovering the Dark Marketplace for Phishing Kits (Vade Secure) Ukraine Tracks a Record Number of Cyber Incidents During War (Bank Info Security)  Russia will target other countries for web attacks, Ukraine cyber defence chief warns (The Irish Times)  Sandworm Linked to Attack on Danish Critical Infrastructure (Infosecurity Magazine)  Why cyber war readiness is critical for democracies (Help Net Security)  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It was bad enough that Michael Burry - the investor who profited from the subprime mortgage crisis by shorting the 2007 mortgage bond market - just took a $1.6 billion dollar short on the market again. Now, the man, the myth, the legend is that the great investor in world history - Warren Buffett - has just dumped $8 billion dollars of stock and is moving to a cash position. The boy think these are very telling signs of an impending recessionary economy by two men who know what they are doing. At the same time, a new report out states that 61% of Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck and US department stores are seeing higher credit delinquencies amid strained spending. It's a wild episode that is capped by a special collaboration between Mitch McConnell and Jay-Z.Resources:Warren Buffett just dumped $8 billion of stocks (here's why economists are worried) (The Street)61% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck — inflation is still squeezing budgets (CNBC)US department stores see higher credit delinquencies amid strained spending (Reuters)US labor market loses steam as job openings, resignations decline (Reuters)U.S. job growth slowed sharply to 177,000 in August, below expectations, ADP says (CNBC)US consumer spending in July surges; weekly jobless claims fall (Yahoo! Finance)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

In New York and London, owners of office towers are walking away from their debt rather than pouring good money after bad. The landlords of downtown San Francisco's largest mall have abandoned it. A new Hong Kong skyscraper is only a quarter leased. The rot inside commercial real estate is like a dark seam running through the global economy. Even as stock markets rally and investors are hopeful that the fastest interest-rate increases in a generation will ebb, the trouble in property is set to play out for years.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a prediction from Chapman University economists, calling for a mild national recession in the second half of the year, driving down the coastal community's year-end local median sales price to $885,000 — an 11 percent drop from $993,000 in June and 19 percent off the $1.1 million high of spring 2022.Chris and Saied look at announcements from several big companies, including Apple, JPMorgan Chase, and Amazon, who are attempting new pushes to “return to office” after previous attempts foundered. However, the pandemic has showed that many jobs can be done remotely, while a tight labor market and successful pandemic policy has given employees the confidence to push for better working conditions.They also offer some thoughts on data from Moody's Investors Service, which indicates that corporate defaults rose last month, with 41 in the U.S. so far this year. That's more than double the same period last year.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You'll Learn in this Show:Why office real estate values are heading for a sharp crash and likely won't recover by 2040.Why average US office vacancies currently sit around 50%. The Case-Shiller index shows the first year-over-year decline in 11 years.And so much more...Resources:"Cinemark closing theater complex at Westfield" (NBC via Instagram)"OC home prices expected to fall by 11% as recession looms" (TheRealDeal via Instagram)"Silicon Valley vacancy jumps to 17% as tech firms shed floors" (TheRealDeal via Instagram)"Return to office? How COVID-19 and remote work reshaped the economy" (Princeton University Press)"Corporate bankruptcies and defaults are surging – here's why" (CNBC)"The World's Empty Office Buildings Have Become a Debt Time Bomb" (Bloomberg)"U.S. new home sales jump in May; median house price falls" (Reuters)"U.S. Home Prices Posted First Annual Decline Since 2012 in April"...

Released Federal Reserve documents seem to indicate that fallout from the U.S. banking crisis is likely to tilt the economy into recession later this year. Minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) included a presentation from staff members on potential repercussions from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and other tumult in the financial sector that began in early March.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a report from the Labor Department indicating that US producer prices unexpectedly fell in March as the cost of gasoline declined, along with signs that underlying producer inflation was subsiding.Chris and Saied look at analyst's estimates, suggesting that deposits at JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Bank of America will tumble $521 billion from a year earlier, the biggest drop in a decade.They also offer some thoughts on criminal fraud charges brought by the Department of Justice against Charlie Javice, founder and former CEO of Frank, a startup college financial planning company for students, in which they allege that she "engaged in a brazen scheme" when she sold her company to JPMorgan Chase in 2021.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You'll Learn in this Show:The statistics that can be found behind the CPI report.The two main problems with the shelter component of the CPI report.Why the Fed expects a banking crisis to cause a recession this year.The ins and outs of the Charlie Javice fraud case.And so much more...Resources:"US consumer prices rise moderately; underlying inflation too hot" (Reuters)"US labor market gradually losing steam; producer inflation cooling" (Reuters)"U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fall in March" (Reuters)"Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show" (CNBC)"Top US banks to reveal $521 billion deposit drop, the most in a decade” (Bloomberg Business)"Deposit Crisis Sets Up a Tough First Quarter for All but the Biggest Banks" (The Wall Street Journal)"Charlie Javice, the founder accused of fraud by JPMorgan, is arrested as DOJ files criminal charges" (Fortune)"The Fed's efforts to fight housing inflation by hiking interest rates has backfired, Cramer says" (CNBC)

India Policy Watch: Passing the BurdenInsights on burning policy issues in India— Pranay KotasthaneAs Wilson's Matrix tells us, concentrated benefits (costs) trump diffused costs (benefits) on most occasions. Organising people around diffuse interests is difficult. As a political articulation of these voices is difficult, they are consigned to being a background hum in the cacophony of politics. One such diffused interest group is the future generation. Apart from the common difficulty that all diffuse interest groups face, they face a small, little additional problem — they aren't even in this world to be able to speak for themselves.Hence, it shouldn't come as a surprise that governments and societies shortchange future generations by borrowing more than their means for current consumption and passing this burden to the future generation. India is no exception. Even today, the biggest expenditure item in the union budget is neither defence nor home affairs, but the interest paid by the union government to borrowers on past loans. We are paying for the profligacy of past and current governments. The chart below from this year's budget tells us that roughly a fifth of the government's total expenditure is being spent on interest payments.As we keep living beyond our means, the portion of the future generation's spending on interest payments keeps growing. This is what a real debt trap looks like. Most governments run deficits, and so does India. But the quality of deficits matters. If governments borrow to finance physical and social infrastructure, the burden on future generations is mitigated to the extent that the outputs continue to be available to them. But that's not the case in India. The union government still runs a sizable revenue deficit, meaning that a portion of the borrowing is being used merely to keep the government running today. In other words, we snatch money from future generations to meet the demands of the current generation's citizens. In Studies in Indian Public Finance, Govinda Rao points out that while children in the age group of 0-14 constitute over 35 per cent of the population, investment in the two items that matter most for their capabilities—health and education—continues to be low. This idea of sharing resources across generations is known as intergenerational equity. I prefer to call it intergenerational balance. A $2500 per capita income country with 20 per cent poverty must accord higher priority to improving the life chances of today's citizens. Nevertheless, we must push governments to seek a balance between today's consumption and tomorrow's choices.It is for this reason that state governments reshifting to the Old Pension Scheme is a wilful crime against future Indians. At a time when government employees already have better payscales than the median Indian, committing to an ever-growing pension liability is to rob money from the future for the benefit of a select few. But then, matters of fiscal prudence are not politically savvy. No one ever voted for a government for its fiscal marksmanship. No politician ventures there unless specifically asked. For this reason, it was encouraging that the Prime Minister—at least rhetorically—made a case for intergenerational balance in the Parliament:“You should not put burden on your children.  Borrowing for present day needs leaving the debt burden on future generations is a matter of serious concern...For the economic well being of the nation, states also have to take the path of discipline... Only then states will be able to benefit from development.”There's a lot more the union government could've done and can still do. Criticising state governments on the floor of the parliament won't make the problem disappear. It's important for the union government to explain to state governments the fiscal impact of such profligacy. Aligning their cognitive maps is important. Back in 2003, a coalition government was able to get states to commit to fiscal consolidation. There's no reason why it can't be done now. But it would require collaboration rather than confrontation between the union and the states. There's another area of public policy where thinking about intergenerational balance is crucial: governing the use of natural resources. What rules should govern the rate of extraction or utilisation of a limited natural resource is a question that all governments and societies must resolve. Many States, including the Indian Republic, own forests, rivers, beaches, oceans, and minerals as a trustee, i.e. on behalf of current and future generations. This idea, known as the Public Trust Doctrine (PTD), requires that extraction of the natural resource should go hand in hand with investment in productive assets that can be used by future generations (Hartwick's Rule). Norway's Oil Fund is an oft-cited example of the Public Trust Doctrine in action. Factoring in the opportunity cost incurred by future generations into the current price is a sound mechanism for the sustainable use of natural resources. The main obstacle is often that people might not agree to put any price tag on the natural resource. The resulting logjam harms the intergenerational balance.Global Policy Watch: US Inflation and its DiscontentsGlobal policy issues and their implication for India— RSJOne of the predictions, part of my usual beginning of the year edition, was that in 2023, US inflation would be stickier than most people have forecast, the growth would be stronger in the first half of the year, and employment would remain fairly high - and all of these would mean that Fed would continue to raise rates this year to fight inflation. The slowdown would come later, perhaps in 2024, and it would hurt more than most people imagine. Well, here's the latest inflation news from Reuters:U.S. consumer spending increased by the most in nearly two years in January amid a surge in wage gains, while inflation accelerated, adding to financial market fears that the Federal Reserve could continue raising interest rates into summer.The report from the Commerce Department on Friday was the latest indication that the economy was nowhere near a much-dreaded recession. It joined data earlier this month showing robust job growth in January and the lowest unemployment rate in more than 53 years.“Clearly, tighter monetary policy has yet to fully impact consumers and shows that the Fed has more work to do in slowing down aggregate demand," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. "This report all but insures the Fed will continue on its rate hiking campaign for a lot longer than markets anticipated just a few weeks ago.”The Fed is expected to deliver two additional rate hikes of 25 basis points in March and May. Traders on Friday raised their bets for another increase in June. The U.S. central bank has raised its policy rate by 450 basis points since last March from near zero to a 4.50%-4.75% range.This brings me back to a more specific prediction I have which might currently seem bizarre but isn't outside of the realm of possibility. I suspect we might have the Fed hiking rates all the way to the 6.50%-7.00% range before they declare a win in the war against inflation. Inflation hurts the poor, and no political party likes it. An increase in prices takes wealth away from savers, and it erodes trust in the future for consumers. Price stability, therefore, is the primary role of a central bank. Given that growth hasn't come off despite a 450 bps rise in rates and the blockbuster US employment numbers that came in last month, I don't see what will stop the Fed from turning more hawkish in the coming months.So, what does all of this mean for India? I will suggest the following.Firstly, we can no longer work under the assumption that the Fed rate hike cycle is nearing its end, and we can therefore expect the rates to stabilise in India, too, after one more round of hikes. We must work out a scenario of what it means to live in a world where the US rates are at 7 per cent or more. The impact of it on the Rupee, our forex reserves and our growth if we continue to retain a differential between the two rates are all important factors to bear in mind. At this moment, we seem to have an uneasy and overwhelming consensus on how the macro will pan out. This recent inflation data from the US should make us pause and relook at our premises.Secondly, the two variables that can mar India's decade story are the fiscal deficit - among the highest in the world when you add the union and state numbers - and the current account deficit. It will be useful to stress test scenarios if we have US rates touching 7 per cent. Most global institutional investors have a fine disregard for these two metrics so far as they have built their models with US rates in the 5 per cent range. Lastly, if there's going to be an ‘accident' because of this 7 per cent scenario coming to pass, it won't be in the public market or a particular currency or sector. The banking sector is at the strongest it has ever been worldwide, and there are few asset bubbles in the conventional sectors. Of course, there are pockets of overvalued assets, especially in real estate sectors in Germany (and Western Europe in general), Canada and Australia. But it isn't so large that it will create a domino. The likely accident could be in the private market, like the private equity space or in assets like crypto and private tech valuations. Thankfully, these won't lead to contagion in the usual sense. My sense is it will be useful for most macro models in India to recalibrate their assumptions to higher interest rates for 2023 and stress test the scenarios at 7 per cent and beyond levels. We might be lulled by the growth and employment numbers in the US, but the real pain could unfurl only in 2024 and beyond.PolicyWTF: The Tyranny of Import DutiesThis section looks at egregious public policies. Policies that make you go: WTF, Did that really happen?— Pranay KotasthaneExhibit 1Apple phones are costly. But they are beyond costly in India, not because Tim Cook has it in for India, but because our government wants us to buy “Made in India” phones instead. Imported smartphones attract a 20 per cent basic customs duty. In addition, there's a social welfare surcharge of 10 per cent of the duty rate. Besides this 22 per cent customs duties, all phones attract a GST of 18 per cent (up from 12 per cent). This 18 per cent rate is applied to the phone cost inclusive of the customs duty. The cascading involved in this tax regime would make public finance specialists hopping mad, but then all is fair in love and atmanirbharta.As you would anticipate, these high import duties have opened up a new market for smuggled smartphones, estimated to be in the range of ₹15,000 crores. Apple phones made in India are also not spared. Under the Phased Manufacturing Programme (PMP), the government applies import duties on sub-components as well. The idea is to magically create a local supply chain. But what it ends up doing is increasing the cost of manufacturing in India, making products uncompetitive globally. We have written about this topic on many occasions before. I'll just link them below for now. But hey, not all's lost. Realising that the PMP might be self-destructive, the latest budget has removed the customs duty on the import of certain parts, such as the camera lens. Small mercies. More on this subject:* #185 - No Exports without Imports* #155 - The Problem with Protectionism* #86 - Production Linked IncentivesExhibit 2The Podfather Amit Varma told me (he'd heard it from a friend) the reason behind most DSLR and action cameras' 30-minute video recording limit is…. import duties! Not a work of the Indian government, though. Apparently, the EU passed a rule in the nineties that imported video cameras would be subject to a customs duty, while still-cameras would not. A video camera was defined as one that could capture a continuous video of a length greater than 30 minutes at a high quality. And so, even as still cameras became more powerful, they continue to retain the 30-minute limit. Given that the EU was a big market, camera makers found it convenient to follow this restriction in all geographies. This Hacker News conversation has more information. Apparently, the EU disbanded this import duty in 2018. But the 30-minute restriction seems to have a hysteresis. HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters* [Podcast] In this Puliyabaazi episode, we explore the reasons behind China's technological upgradation. * [Paper] Rahul Basu of the Goa Foundation explains the Public Trust Doctrine in the context of mining in Goa. * [Paper] To understand the evolution of the Public Trust Doctrine, read this paper. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com

TV/Radio Host Tyler Jones (@TylerJonesLive) and The Racing Experts Editor-In-Chief (@DominicAragon) are joined by Reuters U.S. Motorsports Writer Lewis Franck (@LewisFranck).(0:30-4:45) Recap of Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s Daytona 500 win.(4:45-29:45) Lewis Franck on Ricky Stenhouse Jr. winning the Daytona 500, Jimmie Johnson and Travis Pastrana's return to NASCAR and Frankie Muniz's ARCA debut.(29:45-47:00) News and Notes: Tony Stewart and Danica Patrick in the FOX booth, Connor Daly to run at COTA and NASCAR to New York?(47:00-1:04:00) Ask David with Lewis on NASCAR going to EV.Hear it all on "Let's Go Racing with David Starr!!" on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google, etc. and as part of the Last Word on Sports Podcast Network of shows!

The job cuts in the tech industry continue to pile up. Google announced plans to lay off 12,000 people from its workforce, while Microsoft said that it's letting go of 10,000 employees. Amazon also began a fresh round of job cuts that are expected to eliminate more than 18,000 employees and become the largest workforce reduction in the e-retailer's 28-year history. The layoffs come in a period of slowing growth, higher interest rates to battle inflation, and fears of a possible recession next year.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and as always, attempt to determine how it affects the economy as a whole.They discuss a report from the Commercial Observer, based on data from Cushman and Wakefield, which shows that the vacancy rate in the fourth quarter for shopping centers was 5.7 percent, the lowest level in 15 years.Chris and Saied look at an item from CNN stating that the US hit the debt ceiling set by Congress on Thursday, forcing the Treasury Department to start taking extraordinary measures to keep the government paying its bills and escalating pressure on Capitol Hill to avoid a catastrophic default.They also offer some thoughts on the unexpected drop in unemployment benefits claims that occurred last week, suggesting a tight labor market, despite higher interest rates.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You'll Learn in this Show:The debt ceiling: What it is and why it matters.Why home sales have slumped to a 12-year low.How much of the return to offices is because of executive level productivity vs. morale.The problem with ego and the distorted reality it can create.And so much more...Resources:"US hits debt ceiling, prompting Treasury to take extraordinary measures" (article from CNN Politics)"Google, Microsoft, Amazon and other tech companies have laid off more than 70,000 employees in the last year" (article from CNBC)"US shopping center vacancy hits 15-year low" (The Real Deal via Instagram)"The curtain is closing on these Regal theaters in SoCal" (NBCLA via Instagram)"U.S. home sales slump to 12-year low; glimmers of hope emerging" (article from Reuters)"U.S. will hit its debt limit Thursday, start taking steps to avoid default, Yellen warns Congress" (article from CNBC)"Tamer CPI Inflation Rate Should Keep S&P 500 Rallying Until The Fed Meeting" (article from Investor's Business Daily)"Economists in WSJ Survey Still See Recession This Year Despite Easing Inflation" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

Scientists have conducted an ant census. Or at least that's what I'm calling it. And the total number they came up with is out of this world. Plus, the return of the Shortage Report. This time? Craft beer. Its cause? An extinct volcano.Sponsors:Indeed, Get a free $75 credit PLUS earn up to $500 extra in sponsored job credits with Indeed's Virtual Interviews at Indeed.com/goodnewsShopify, Get a 14-day free trial at shopify.com/coolLinks:Scientists have calculated how many ants are on Earth. The number is so big it's 'unimaginable.' (Washington Post)The ants go marching one by one - 20 quadrillion of them (Reuters)U.S. beer shortage looms with gap in carbon dioxide supply (Axios)US CO2 shortage worsened by contaminated gas from an extinct volcano (New Scientist) Craft breweries shutting down due to U.S. carbon dioxide shortage (NBC News)What you really need to know about the CO2 shortages (Washington Beer Blog)The Pez Outlaw Trailer Reveals the Incredible Story of a Candy Criminal (Collider) Jackson Bird on TwitterSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Password manager software maker LastPass suffered a data breach last week, which understandably made their customers very nervous - and caused some people to question the decision to put all their passwords in one digital basket. In today's show, I'll explain why this particular breach was not a threat to anyone's passwords and why you should still use a high quality password manager. In other news: Former security chief blows the whistle on Twitter; major VPN providers are pulling out of India over surveillance law issues; a set of popular Chrome extensions caught committing click fraud; Google's new Chrome extension restrictions threaten to hobble ad blockers; a father's Google accounts are deleted over false AI-flagged CSAM; US Federal Trade Commission sues a data broker over lax protection of location data; EFF finds another data broker selling location data to law enforcement; Google launches bug bounty program for open source software projects; DuckDuckGo's email privacy protection feature now available to all; Ohio judge rules that scanning students' rooms before tests is illegal; a flight to Cabo is nearly grounded thanks to a passenger sending dick pics to other passengers, including one of the pilots. Article Links [The Washington Post] Former security chief claims Twitter buried ‘egregious deficiencies' https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/interactive/2022/twitter-whistleblower-sec-spam/[9to5mac.com] Major VPN services shut down in India over anti-privacy law; Apple hasn't yet commented https://9to5mac.com/2022/09/01/major-vpn-services/[BleepingComputer] Chrome extensions with 1.4 million installs steal browsing data https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/chrome-extensions-with-14-million-installs-steal-browsing-data/[BleepingComputer] AdGuard's new ad blocker struggles with Google's Manifest v3 rules https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/adguard-s-new-ad-blocker-struggles-with-google-s-manifest-v3-rules/[The New York Times] A Dad Took Photos of His Naked Toddler for the Doctor. Google Flagged Him as a Criminal. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/21/technology/google-surveillance-toddler-photo.html[Reuters] U.S. FTC sues data broker Kochava for alleged sale of sensitive data https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-ftc-sues-data-broker-kochava-alleged-sale-sensitive-data-2022-08-29/[Electronic Frontier Foundation] Data Broker Helps Police See Everywhere You've Been with the Click of a Mouse: EFF Investigation https://www.eff.org/press/releases/data-broker-helps-police-see-everywhere-youve-been-click-mouse-eff-investigation[Naked Security] LastPass source code breach – do we still recommend password managers? https://nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2022/08/29/lastpass-source-code-breach-do-we-still-recommend-password-managers/[Decipher] Google Launches Bug Bounty Program For Open Source Projects https://duo.com/decipher/google-launches-bug-bounty-program-for-its-open-source-projects[Spread Privacy] Protect Your Inbox: DuckDuckGo Email Protection Beta Now Open to All! https://spreadprivacy.com/protect-your-inbox-with-duckduckgo-email-protection/[The Verge] University can't scan students' rooms during remote tests, judge rules https://www.theverge.com/2022/8/23/23318067/cleveland-state-university-online-proctoring-decision-room-scan[VICE] Creeps Airdropping Dick Pics Just Made Flying Even Worse https://www.vice.com/en/article/3adag9/southwest-tiktok-video-pilot-airdropped-nudesTip of the Week: How to Prevent Cyberflashing https://firewallsdontstopdragons.com/how-to-prevent-cyberflashing/  Further Info Peppering Your Passwords: https://firewallsdontstopdragons.com/password-manager-paranoia/ Subscribe to the newsletter: https://firewallsdontstopdragons.com/newsletter/new-newsletter/Check out my book, Firewalls Don't Stop Dragons: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1484261887 Become a Patron! https://www.patreon.com/FirewallsDontStopDragons Donate directly with Monero!

I joke its Groundhog Day, but if you're a crypto billionaire, you probably want the repetition to end as much as anyone. Wait, is TikTok suddenly in trouble with the US government again? A new line of chips from Arm. Sony wants to play to PC gamers. And why Netflix doling out Stranger Things in portions is one of the biggest experiments being run in Hollywood right now.Links:Crypto Crash Widens a Divide: ‘Those With Money Will End Up Being Fine' (NYTimes)Crypto crash threatens North Korea's stolen funds as it ramps up weapons tests (Reuters)U.S. FCC commissioner wants Apple and Google to remove TikTok from their app stores (CNBC)Ray tracing and 64-bit only: What you should know about Arm's 2023 CPUs and GPUs (Android Authority)Sony targets PC gamers with new hardware brand, Inzone (Washington Post)Here's why Netflix made you wait a month to watch the rest of Stranger Things (Recode)See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Today, we start with congress somehow passing the most comprehensive gun legislation in decades, while the government is managing to ban juul e-cigarettes. Finally, stories from the fourth day of the January 6th committee hearings. Resources/Articles mentioned this episode: Reuters: U.S. Senate passes gun safety bill as Supreme Court knocks down handgun limits Bloomberg: Juul's Vaping Products Are Ordered Off the Market in the US Axios: Here's who's testifying at the fifth Jan. 6 committee hearing NY Times: Federal Authorities Search Home of Trump Justice Dept. Official CNN: January 6 committee showed particular interest in Ivanka Trump footage, filmmaker says

After Monday night's federal court ruling on the mask mandate for travel, TSA lifted its mask mandate. ​​Then, Russia announced that the “next phase” of the war is underway. Meanwhile, a federal judge ruled that legal efforts to disqualify Marjorie Taylor Greene from running for re-election can proceed. The White House announced it has restored key protections to an important environmental law. Finally, The Intercept claims that Jared Kushner's new investment fund has been publicly touting in their marketing deck to investors that Kushner has a relationship with Saudi Arabia. Resources/Articles mentioned this episode: Reuters: U.S. will no longer enforce mask mandate on airplanes, trains after court ruling WaPo: Russia begins 'battle for Donbas' in what U.S. calls 'prelude' to larger offensive NY Times: Effort to Remove Majorie Taylor From Ballot Can Proceed, Judge Says WaPo: Biden restores climate safeguards in key environmental law, reversing Trump Intercept: JARED KUSHNER FLAUNTED HIS INFLUENCE WITH SAUDI ARABIA, RUSSIA IN PITCH TO INVESTORS

US National Security Advisor says atrocities were part of Russia's plan. Russian commanders seek to keep troops away from dangerous sections of the Internet. Cyberattacks in Finland may be a shot across Helsinki's bow. CERT-UA warns of a phishing campaign. Hacktivists hit Russian organizations. Mixed reviews for US preemptive measures against GRU botnets. Sharkbot-infested apps ejected from Google Play. Johannes Ullrich from SANS on malicious ISO files embedded in HTML. Our guest is Neal Dennis from Cyware on threat intel sharing with members of Auto-ISAC. What you should do when your Shields are Up. For links to all of today's stories check out our CyberWire daily news briefing: https://thecyberwire.com/newsletters/daily-briefing/11/69 Selected reading. Russia Shuffles Command in Ukraine as Thousands Flee the East (New York Times)  Sullivan: Intel indicates plan from ‘highest levels' of Russian government to target civilians (The Hill)  Russian soldiers banned from social media as ‘uncomfortable truths' drain their morale (The Telegraph)  West Seeks to Pierce Russia's Digital Iron Curtain (Foreign Policy) YouTube blocks Russian parliament channel, drawing ire from officials (Reuters)  U.S. quietly paying millions to send Starlink terminals to Ukraine, contrary to SpaceX claims (Washington Post) Hackers use Conti's leaked ransomware to attack Russian companies (BleepingComputer)  Державна служба спеціального зв'язку та захисту інформації України (GUR) How Russia's Invasion Triggered a US Crackdown on Its Hackers (Wired) The U.S. Opens a Risky New Front in Cyberdefense (Bloomberg)  Meet the 1,300 librarians racing to back up Ukraine's digital archives (Washington Post)  The Race to Save Posts That May Prove Russian War Crimes (Wired)  Exclusive: Senior EU officials were targeted with Israeli spyware (Reuters)  SharkBot Android Malware Continues Popping Up on Google Play (SecurityWeek)  SharkBot Banking Trojan spreads through fake AV apps on Google Play (Security Affairs)  Sharing Cyber Event Information: Observe, Act, Report (CISA)

An update on US cyber defensive operations and the war in Ukraine. You can't tell your oligarchs without a scorecard. Google ejects data-harvesting apps from Play. China preps the cyber battlespace against India's power grid. More moves against Hydra Market. Bearded Barbie's catphishing. Betsy Carmelite from BAH on a blueprint for achieving a secure and resilient dot gov. Our guest is Padraic O'Reilly from CyberSaint with a fresh look at ransomware. And your majesty, meet this here dissident, who also needs to move money for the best of reasons…. For links to all of today's stories check out our CyberWire daily news briefing: https://thecyberwire.com/newsletters/daily-briefing/11/67 Selected reading. Pentagon: Russia has fully withdrawn from Kyiv, Chernihiv (Washington Post)  Zelenskyy tells UN: Act now on Russia or dissolve yourself altogether (Atlantic Council)  DoJ takes down Russian botnet that targeted WatchGuard and Asus routers (ZDNet)  FBI Disables "Cyclops Blink" Botnet Controlled by Russian Intelligence Agency (SecurityWeek)  Justice Department Announces Court-Authorized Disruption of Botnet Controlled by the Russian Federation's Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) (US Department of Justice)  Adversarial Threat Report (Meta) Facebook cracks down on covert influence networks targeting Ukraine (Washington Post) Russian-backed hackers broke into Facebook accounts of Ukrainian military officials (CBS News)  Britain slaps sanctions on Russia's biggest bank  (The Telegraph)  Russia hit with new round of U.S. sanctions as Biden decries 'major war crimes' (Reuters)  U.S. to Sanction Putin Children, Banks Over Bucha Atrocities (Bloomberg) The Forbes Ultimate Guide To Russian Oligarchs (Forbes)  Suspected Chinese Hackers Collect Intelligence From India's Grid (Bloomberg)  Continued Targeting of Indian Power Grid Assets by Chinese State-Sponsored Activity Group (Recorded Future)  Operation Bearded Barbie: APT-C-23 Campaign Targeting Israeli Officials (Cybereason)  Google Bans Apps With Hidden Data-Harvesting Software (Wall Street Journal) The Nigerian Prince Scam, with a Russian Twist (Avanan)

On this episode of The Decaf Recap I and Tre' Bell discuss what we know about the situation happening in the Ukraine. As we compare notes on the media we've ingested and try and figure out what it all means to us. sources for this episode: The Atlantic: How Far Will Biden Go to Stop Putin? The Atlantic: Ukrainians Prepare for war (photos) The Atlantic: How should the U.S. Respond to Putin's Nuclear Provocation? The Reuters: U.S. banks prepare for cyber attacks after latest Russia sanctions Guest Tre' Bell follow him on Youtube channel Arcane Frequencies Music made by Chevy Kalpin follow him on Instagram @wyomingnaturephotography and support his music at eatingnapkins.bandcamp.com All Editing and artwork for The Decaf Recap is made by Lukii-G follow me on Instgram @lukii_g_arts and check out my website lukiigarts.com

一週財經聚焦 一、美國公佈了拜登任內第一份區域戰略報告。報告指出，中國大陸的脅迫與侵略遍及全球，且在印太地區最為嚴峻，美國決定儘快拿出具體對策。 國際媒體相關報導 ●Reuters路透社：〈U.S. vows stepped-up Indo-Pacific effort in push back against China〉(美國誓言加強印太地區反擊中國的力量) ●NIKKEI Asia日本經濟新聞：〈U.S. to host APEC in 2023 in push for Indo-Pacific economic pact〉(美國將於2023年主辦亞太經合組織，以推動印太經濟協定) ●Bloomberg彭博新聞社：〈Biden Team Unveils Indo-Pacific Plan to Counter China's Clout〉(拜登團隊公佈印度洋-太平洋反華計劃，以抵禦中國) 分析解讀 美國日益關注印太地區的部分原因，在於區域面臨越來越嚴峻的挑戰，尤其是來自中國大陸的挑戰。比較特別的是，這份報告提到，未來將與區域內外夥伴維護台海和平穩定，包括支持台灣自衛，以確保台灣人民能有一個依循其意志與最大利益，和平決定未來的環境，並威嚇台海軍事侵略。 報告特別指出，未來10年透過集體努力，將決定中國大陸是否能成功改變有利於印太地區和全球的規則與規範。 美國印太戰略報告設定5大目標，包括：推進自由開放印太地區、在區域內外建立聯繫、推動區域繁榮、加強印太安全；最重要的一點是，如何建立共識，共同抵抗包括氣候變遷、COVID-19等超越國界威脅的能力。 拜登政府特別強調，將在未來一到兩年內展開10項核心工作，其中最重要的是供應鏈的韌性和數位安全。其他包括在印太地區投注新資源、推動印太經濟架構、支持印度的持續崛起與區域領導力、強化四方安全對話（Quad）、擴大美日韓合作，以及支持開放、具韌性、安全和值得信賴的科技等等。 預計這份備受矚目的美國「印太經濟架構」將在數周內公佈細節，我相信很多人會對美國的表態支持台灣防衛能力沾沾自喜。但以目前所知的方向來看，我個人認為，極可能不利於台灣未來的經貿發展。雖然我們看到政府積極表態，希望爭取參與印太經濟架構，但卻不能沒有經貿角度的思考。 以戰略觀點看，台灣位於中國外緣，運輸距離最近，依國際貿易「重力理論」（Gravity Theory）來看，我們很難擺脫中國。也就是說，若其他情況相同，台灣和中國自然會產生最大的貿易量。就如同英國最大的貿易對像是歐盟，墨西哥和加拿大最主要的貿易夥伴都是美國一樣。若要改變這種貿易趨勢，需有其他利益來補償，否則就會付出昂貴代價。 如今，美國在經貿、科技和軍事上要圍堵中國，企圖將台灣拉進其包圍架構，除非另外提供足以彌補未來可能遭對岸報復的損失，否則台灣就要謹慎，不必完全配合，甚至要設法左右逢源，才能趨吉避凶，避免不必要的成本。 另外，有人會說在1990年代以前，在兩岸政治對峙、經濟互不往來之時，台灣經濟仍然快速發展，難道現在就非依賴對岸不可嗎？ 的確，當年台灣不需要依賴中國市場卻能穩定發展，那是因為當年有個推動全球貿易自由化的「世界貿易組織」（WTO的前身，當時稱「關稅暨貿易總協定」GATT），讓貿易自由化程度大幅提高，且有助於台灣參與全球化。 但現在地貿易環境已完全不同，包括全球興起的「新保護主義」、台灣和對岸因政治對立，難以簽署區域貿易協定。且中國已非當年的吳下阿蒙，它已成為全球第二大經濟體，成長動能超越美國，除少數尖端半導體之外，台灣其他對陸出口都可能被替代；服務業貿易方興未艾，只不過在中國大陸極易受官方幹預或控制。 在這樣狀況下，台灣的經濟會不會被影響？ 若全面配合美國圍堵對岸，除非願意犧牲出口帶動的成長，否則台灣經濟可能停滯甚至負成長，我想，沒有人願意承擔這種後果。因此，應該如何應對美國即將公佈的「印太經濟架構」內容，對台灣而言就極為重要。 在如此嚴峻的狀況下，首先我們必須先瞭解地緣政治和經濟的關係。很多人會認為，台灣擁有不可或缺的半導體護國神山，可以老神在在。是的，以2020年全球半導體供應市佔率來說，美國位居第一，約為42.9％，台灣位居第二，約為19.7％。如果加上美國掌握的尖端技術和資本，日本掌握的關鍵材料，台灣當然會是供應鏈韌性中不可或缺的要角。 但看懂美國的這個新佈局更為重要。 首先，重返CPTPP已經不再是美國的選項；第二，印太經濟架構(IPEF)這個新的戰略結盟不會只有對話，而是以「協定」（Agreement）的方式呈現；第三，它將以如供應鏈韌性等新興區域性經貿議題為主，並且以美國為中心。 說實話，這個模式能不能讓美國拿回主導權尚待觀察，但美國重返亞太的運作方式絕對會脫離關稅及貿易規則等台灣熟悉的領域，台灣準備好了嗎？ 我確實看見印太經濟架構一下子成了台灣眼中的希望浮木，連蔡總統都立刻表態加入，我當然樂觀其成。但IPEF真的是萬靈丹嗎？那可得看臺灣自己有沒有與時俱進。 首先我們要知道，印太經濟架構無助提升台灣貿易自由化。台灣經貿發展最大的障礙在於FTA覆蓋率約僅有一成，但印太經濟架構並沒有包含貿易政策，無法化解台灣邊緣化的危機。 其次，印太經濟架構著眼於美國利益，「美國優先」仍然會是最重要的運作邏輯。雖然台灣仍有護國神山半導體的護身，但明眼人都知道，各國對它的虎視眈眈，早就讓台積電分身乏術踏上征途。 所以，印太經濟架構的重點不會是貿易規則，而是一連串涉及資料跨境傳輸、資料保護、平臺互通及加密技術等國際標準的制訂。 我認為，台灣當下最重要的是，台灣最不需要口號，而是劍及履及的戰略。在標準化制定方面怎麼培養跨國談判人才？此外，印太經濟架構與CPTPP並不衝突，如何在印太經濟架構與RCEP、CPTPP彼此競爭的情況下，規劃可以讓台灣產業持續保持競爭力的平衡之術？這才是最重要的。 二、拜登政府發出警告：俄羅斯、烏克蘭隨時可能開戰。這個利空消息嚇壞了金融市場，油價暴漲、恐慌指數 VIX 飆升，美股四大指數全收黑。 國際媒體相關報導 ●Reuters路透社：〈U.S. investors expect more volatility as Ukraine concerns spook markets〉(美國投資者預計，隨著「烏克蘭擔憂」驚嚇，市場將更加動蕩) ●CNBC：〈Oil jumps amid escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine〉(俄羅斯和烏克蘭之間的緊張局勢升級，石油價格飆升) ●The Wall Street Journal華爾街日報：〈Behind the Stock Market Turmoil: A High-Speed Investor U-Turn〉(股市動蕩背後：投資者的高速掉頭) 分析解讀 俄羅斯與烏克蘭之間的劍拔弩張，使科技股再度淪為殺盤重心，尤其費半指數下跌近5%。因為半導體關鍵材料鈀和氖氣來自俄、烏，供應鏈恐會中斷，重創美晶片股，台積電與聯電ADR也因此重挫近3%。 根據CNN報導，白宮官員警告，滯留烏克蘭的美國公民盡快撤離，由此看來，俄羅斯隨時可能入侵烏克蘭。 除此之外，美國2月密西根大學消費者信心指數，創下2011年以來新低，而1月消費者物價指數（CPI）年增率突破7.5%，改寫40年新高；通膨升幅高於預期，聯準會（Fed）官員呼籲加快升息，多家投行均預測Fed將於3月例會一口氣升息2碼。 以上這些都是負面因素。更重要的是，芝加哥期權交易所（Chicago Board Options Exchange）的波動率指數（VIX）也突破30。VIX是專業人士用來衡量未來30天穩定性的指標。波動率指數追蹤S&P 500指數的一籃子股票，並衡量期權交易的趨勢，以估計未來波動交易的可能性。波動率越高，投資經理們就越能應對高波動性，可能會推遲大型交易，或是埋頭等待一段艱難的旅程；波動率指數較低，則表示交易將相對符合正常情況。 整個金融市場劇烈震盪的原因，雖然是俄羅斯和烏克蘭緊張局勢升級造成的，但2022年以來，全球經濟確實有放慢的跡象，包括美國、德國、義大利、西班牙、奧地利等多國製造業數據也表現慘淡，這更給全球經濟前景蒙上陰影。 更重要的是，我們看到避險的情緒越來越濃。黃金、美元、油價、日元同時上漲，布倫特原油的交易量攀升至兩個多月來的最高，黃金價格也跳升至近兩個月高點。 2月9日，根據瑞銀集團發表《投資者情緒調查》顯示，通膨與升息是全球高淨值投資者的主要憂慮。 這項調查的對象是全球3,000名投資者與1,200名企業雇主，他們可投資資產或是年收入，至少為100萬美元。調查發現，受訪者對於食品、汽油與能源價格上漲感到憂心，多數並相信通膨升溫將會持續逾12個月，顯示全球市場的避險情緒再次捲土重來。 不過特別的是，近半數受訪者聲稱正等待投資的合適機會，如果他們選擇投資，有6成投資者認為科技(63％)與醫療保健(59％)是最具吸引力的領域。 另外，美國財經評論部落格Zero Hedge發文指出，由高盛最新報告來看，他們開始擔心聯準會激進的緊縮措施，可能導致「硬著陸」（Hard Landing）。 事實上，過去兩年的金融市場的確有點匪夷所思。 CavId-19在全球爆發之後，市場雖然從短暫但眩暈的下滑中恢復過來，投資變成了一樁又一樁令人尖叫的金融市場驚奇。例如汽車租賃公司赫茲（Hertz），從破產道起死回生、例如視頻遊戲零售商GameStop的小蝦米扳倒大鯨魚、例如加密貨幣的橫空出世、例如電動車的飆漲……以上種種，都令人匪夷所思。 在市場如此活躍的情況下，挑選贏家就像是在水桶裡打魚一樣簡單。美國聯準會在2020年3月宣佈將利率降到了零，並開始購買美國公債和其他的各類資產，這令股票，尤其是科技類股價格瘋狂大漲。S&P 500指數在2021年開始交易的前70個交易日，就達到歷史新高，這在人類歷史上只有1995年可以比擬。 但現在的笑聲不那麼響亮了。1月27日，S&P 500指數在跌至修正區域後收盤，比年初的高點低了10%。 以科技股為主的那史達克指數下跌，代表了波動性和避險需求越來越強。耶魯大學（Yale University）的羅伯特·希勒（Robert Shiller）因研究金融泡沫而獲得諾貝爾獎，他認為，這與1929年經濟崩潰前的繁榮時期有相似之處。這番言論，也讓人們開始緊張。 估值激增的直接原因，是十多年來的大量免費資金。金融危機後，各國央行大幅降息，加上疫後的紓困刺激，這些資金如果在今年退位，或是資本價值、成本升高之後，對全球經濟的確會造成負面影響。 現在的金融市場兩個風險顯而易見，首先，某些槓桿其實隱藏在影子銀行和投資的基金中。例如，對沖基金、房地產信託基金和貨幣市場基金的借款和存款類負債總額佔GDP的比例，已從十年前的32%上升到了43%。企業可以在不被注意的情況下，積累著巨額的債務。 第二個風險是，儘管新的金融系統看起來更加分散，但它仍然必須依賴幾個節點來傳遞交易，而這些節點仍然可能被波動性壓垮，因為銀行在退位。 對全球央行來說，最難的是，萬一金融穩定的目標和穩定通貨膨脹的要求方向完全不同，怎麼辦？因為現實狀況就是，目前許多的發達經濟體的通貨膨脹率早就超過了既定目標。這就是為什麼英格蘭銀行副行長Sir Jon Cunliffe會說「整個情況可能會變成好像一方面踩著剎車，還得讓另外一隻腳踩在油門上的兩難境地。」這不是無法解決，但真的非常困難。 總而言之，現在的金融市場已經與過去那個以銀行為主的金融市場完全不一樣，現在經濟的震盪、避險情緒的上升，若是崩潰會發生甚麼變化？沒人知道，也無法想像。 《經濟學人》封面導讀 這期的《經濟學人》封面設計寓意頗深。在藍天白雲的背景前，我們看見一座高聳入雲的雲霄飛車軌道，上面有一列載著振臂歡呼的遊客，正要到達頂點的雲霄飛車，但前面正等著他們的是一個俯衝而下的大轉折。果然，上面兩排白色字體，大字寫的是：「When the ride ends.」(當旅程結束時)；小字則是：「What would happen if markets crashed ?」( 假如市場崩潰怎麼辦？) 而緒論第一篇的標題是：〈The next crisis〉(下一個危機)。文章也特別提醒我們：你可以從歷史中尋找答案，但必須知道這次會不一樣 是的，《經濟學人》在這期的封面故事提出了一個疑問：假如金融市場崩潰，會怎麼樣？ 美國今天的金融體系，看起來確實和2001年或2008年的崩盤前長相不同，但華爾街最近確實開始出現一些令人眼熟的泡沫和恐懼跡象：譬如一個沒有重大新聞就展開的瘋狂交易、譬如一個沒有緣由就發生的價格劇烈波動，或是一個漫延在投資人心中，來自於對科技過度樂觀所夾雜的不安情緒。 在歷經2021的股市飆升之後，華爾街股市一開春就迎來了自2009以來最差的一月份表現，單月跌幅超過5.3%，科技股、加密貨幣和電動汽車等曾經受散戶投資人愛戴的股票紛紛暴跌，曾經被瘋狂追捧的數位元交易平臺，則是充滿了悲傷的言論。 《經濟學人》認為，美國那個模樣完全不同的金融體系，現在正充滿著風險。金融資產價格也高的嚇人，而各國央行正在想方設法提高利率來抑制通貨膨脹。 一個天價估值和上升利率的組合，很容易隨時點燃巨大的損失。一旦巨額損失成為現實，那麼對投資人、全球央行和世界經濟來說，最重要的問題都將變成「現在的金融體系是有能力安全吸收這些震盪？」 《經濟學人》的結論強調，今天的金融體系也許看起來比2008年那個被Bear Stearns (貝爾斯登公司)和Lehman Brother (雷曼兄弟)搞得陷入危機時要好，但請不要弄錯了：它正準備面臨一個嚴峻的考驗，我們一定要繫緊安全帶。 Powered by Firstory Hosting

As the Prime Minister apologises for a failure of leadership, accepting Sue Gray's report, and promises to overhaul Number 10 - his place of work and home - what of Carrie Johnson? And concerns about the blurring of lines... The pandemic has changed the way some women work and has blurred the boundaries between home and work for many. A new book by Professor Laura Gowing of King's College London called 'Ingenious Trade' unearths the stories of women at work in 17th Century London and shows how crucial to their identity paid employment was. For those who remember the late 90s and early noughties, thongs were a defining emblem of popular fashion, often poking out of denim and low-rise trousers. Today, clothes retailers are seeing a surge in their thong sales since 2019, and with the resurgence of ‘y2k' style among young people, it seems that thongs are back. Joe Biden announced last week that he'd fulfil his campaign promise of the first black female justice just as Justice Stephen Breyer said he would retire. Biden said that it was long overdue in his opinion and that he will reveal his choice of a younger, liberal judge by the end of February. While many Americans welcome diversity in the Supreme Court, Biden has also faced criticism for playing identity politics. Emma discusses this with Kimberly Peeler-Allen who is the co-founder of Higher Heights, an organisation that builds the collective political power of Black women and Lawrence Hurley, Reuters U.S. Supreme Court Correspondent. Latest data from the UK Health Security Agency shows that more than one in ten children starting school in England are at risk of measles because they haven't had their jabs. Vaccine rates for the MMR, which helps protect five-year-olds against measles, mumps and rubella, have fallen to their lowest level in a decade. Since the Covid-19 pandemic, there's been a concerning drop in the number of children receiving these vaccinations on time, with some parents perhaps not wanting to burden the NHS or unaware doctors were still offering appointments. Presenter: Emma Barnett Producer: Kirsty Starkey Interviewed Guest: Caroline Slocock Interviewed Guest: Caroline Wheeler Interviewed Guest: Professor Laura Gowing Interviewed Guest: Alizé Demange Interviewed Guest: Letty Cole Interviewed Guest: Kimberly Peeler-Allen Interviewed Guest: Lawrence Hurley Interviewed Guest: Professor Helen Bedford

as we move closer to war with the USSR due to UKRAINE here is what WASHINGTON has to say, Jan 26 (Reuters) - U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said on Wednesday the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany will not move forward if Russia invades Ukraine. so why is that happening now? you may ask well look at the other side of the coin and fallow the real interest of this so-called interest to help out our fellow UKRAINIANS. are we really doing this to be good samaritans or what is it behind this so-called aid to Ukraine also, let us touch on what is happening in Canada truckers are making a stand check this episode --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/hugo-alvarez/message

As tensions continue to rise in Ukraine, this week we turn our attention to statements by U.S. President Biden which some believe may have just given Russia a green light for invasion.  What is a "tech foam", and why does it have some economists and tech analysts concerned? As we wade into the fray this week, we look at economic issues affecting the tech industry, as well as why the leader of the WHO says that the conditions are right for more COVID variants... but that 2022 still might be the year our concerns about the pandemic finally change. However, the concerning situation going on in Ukraine remains at the forefront of our analysis, as some worry that statements by U.S. President Biden could have just signaled to Russia a green light for invasion. Then, we look at the recent courtroom win by Julian Assange, and what that may mean for the U.S.'s continued attempts to extradite the WikiLeaks founder to America... all this and more on this edition of Middle Theory. Coronavirus Charities: If you are able, please consider supporting the following charities that are offering relief for those affected by the coronavirus pandemic. Visit our Coronavirus Charities Page to learn more. DOLLARS FOR DONUTS A special thank you to those who donated to the podcast this week: Rick Dale Robert Cramer Jessica Riley Jennie Vongvith Ali Buchan Jennifer Garland If you like Middle Theory and want to help support the show, you can donate to the program here:   We also offer SUBSCRIPTION accounts for those who would like to make recurring monthly payments to Middle Theory. If you would prefer to SUBSCRIBE to the program, click here to visit our DONATES page, and scroll down below the primary DONATE button.  SHOW NOTES STAY CALM: CNBC's Jim Cramer Advises Calm as Market Craters ​It's not a tech bubble. It's tech foam. - Protocol — The people, power and politics of tech   SITUATION CRITICAL: Covid pandemic at a 'critical juncture,' WHO's Tedros says  Do not assume COVID pandemic reaching 'end game', warns WHO | Reuters  UKRAINE CALLING: Biden Could Deploy 50,000 Troops if Putin Overruns Ukraine: Report Biden admin identifying troops for possible deployment to Eastern Europe amid Russia tensions AUDIO: Ukrainian official: Biden's answer gives Putin ‘green light' to invade  Ukraine: Boris Johnson warns Russian invasion would be disastrous - BBC News  NATO strengthens east European flank as Russia denounces 'hysteria' | Reuters  U.S. discussing military deployment near Ukraine with NATO allies OPINIONS: Russia-Ukraine tensions need a unified NATO response. Biden shook the alliance. Op-ed: Biden needs to channel Harry Truman to counter Putin's designs on Ukraine and beyond ASSANGE: Wikileaks founder Julian Assange wins right to take extradition case to UK's top court  JOIN US: REACH OUT TO MIDDLE THEORY To send us feedback, you can email us here. Also, follow Middle Theory on Twitter too... this is highly recommended, and may even be vital for some of you. Finally, as mentioned earlier, some may be further compelled to donate to the program, which helps keep ads for survival gear, water filters, male enhancement supplements, and do-it-yourself earthworm farming kits off the program.

一週財經聚焦 一、就在拜習視訊峰會之後，美國商務部長Gina Raimondo立刻訪問了日本、新加坡與馬來西亞。她說美國沒有考慮重返《跨太平洋夥伴全面進步協定》（CPTPP），而是會另起爐灶，在印太地區創設一個全新經濟架構。這個構想意味著什麼？背後有什麼深層含義嗎？ 國際媒體相關報導 ●Barrons巴倫週刊：〈China Is Racing Ahead to Lock in Asian Trade. Time to Worry.〉(中國搶先鎖定亞洲貿易。是時候擔心了。) ●Bloomberg彭博新聞社：〈U.S. Needs More Substantive Asia Economic Plan, Singapore Says〉(新加坡稱，美國需要更實質性的亞洲經濟計劃。) ●Reuters路透社：〈U.S. commerce chief sees Indo-Pacific economic framework early next year〉(美國商務部長表示，將在明年初看到新印太經濟框架。) 分析解讀 中國大陸在9月16日突然宣佈加入跨太平洋夥伴全面進步協定(CPTPP)之後，引起各國高度關注。美國政府立即聲明，中國大陸欲加入CPTPP，應由CPTPP成員所決定，美國現階段並沒有洽簽自由貿易協定(FTA)的意向。 中國大陸確實藉著FTA到處插旗，包括區域全面經濟夥伴協定(RCEP)、跨太平洋夥伴全面進步協定(CPTPP)。此外，中國也與不少一帶一路軸線國家，廣簽雙邊FTA。 反觀美國在亞太地區幾無進展，特別是CPTPP，前身是美國一手打造的跨太平洋夥伴協定(TPP)，目的是在增加美國在亞太地區影響力，以制衡中國。到底美國近期有何打算？ 不過美國商務部長Raimondo最近宣稱美國不加入CPTPP，這是美國對CPTPP有史以來最明確表態，也是最直接的否定，顯示拜登仍沿襲川普不參加FTA的策略。 美國當然更不可能申請在2022年生效，但規定生效一年半才吸納新會員的RCEP。所以直到2024年拜登總統第一任期結束前，美國在大型FTA進展將成真空狀態。 但這不是代表美國缺席，它在籌組成立一個超越CPTPP，比傳統FTA更穩固的新經濟聯盟。 最近拜登總統宣佈，美國將建構印太經濟架構。目前雖然尚未公佈內容，輪廓仍未確定，不過重點將不在傳統FTA市場開放部分，而是聚焦在新興項目諸如數位科技、供應鏈領域，建立成員更緊密的合作關係，以強化對中國大陸的制衡。 Indo-Pacific economic framework（印太經濟架構）也可視為FTA的升級版。雖然目前FTA大部分都包含產業合作專章，只不過大多只是聊具一格，重點仍在市場開放。即使在高品質的CPTPP下，產業合作內容也相當簡單。 而在美中貿易戰及新冠肺炎衝擊下，建構韌性供應鏈，確保經濟安全的重要性大増。美國認為必需超越FTA架構，打造以美國為主軸的經濟體系，才符合美國的需求，此也可以視為美國推動的印太戰略重要的一環。 未來印太經濟聯盟涵蓋成員廣，包括先前因顧慮對中國開放市場衝擊太大，因而退出RCEP的印度，印太經濟聯盟若能具體到位，影響力不容忽視。 美國在WTO第12次部長會議前夕宣佈建立印太經濟架構，多少也顯示美國未來將跳過世界貿易組織(WTO)，來重新架構全球經濟結構。因為中國沒有履行當初2001年加入世界貿易組織（WTO）時的承諾--推動結構性改變，轉型成市場經濟體，所以，美國發現透過貿易談判，簽署所謂的第一階段貿易協議，根本不能解決問題。因為中共無意認真執行協議，也因此美國一直以來都有把中國踢出世界貿易組織的想法。 但是真正要解決問題，恐怕還是要成立新的國際經濟組織，訂好條件，讓中國無法加進來。例如構想中的印太經濟架構，可以設定必須是市場經濟議題，而且資訊透明，才可加入，如此正好可將中國排除在外。 很明顯的，這次美國的一連串動作還是針對中國。印太經濟聯盟將會是美國制衡中國的重要平臺，未來發展值得關注。 Raimondo描繪美國想要成立的「印太經濟架構」，說這不同於像CPTPP這類以自由貿易協定為基礎的傳統經貿組織，而是會進一步包括供應鏈韌性、半導體、基礎設施、網路安全、隱私權，以及技術標準制定等領域，特別強調是以戰略方式，協調區域內的供應鏈合作與管理。 我認為，美國這個構想結合了地緣政治與地緣經濟，恰好又對台灣有重要意義，值得進一步推敲。 現在推出印太經濟架構，強調供應鏈安全與半導體，等於是在為台灣量身訂做一樣，有把台灣正式納入的意味。與此同時，這個架構將會強調網路安全、隱私權與技術標準，顯然是針對中國而來。 以2020年全球半導體供應國的市占率來看，美國位居第一，為42.9％；臺灣位居第二，為19.7％。臺灣半導體業中的晶圓代工、半導體封測市占率則分別已超過七成、五成以上，確實在全球半導體供應鏈中扮演舉足輕重的地位。 此外，美國掌握了半導體的關鍵技術專利及資本，日本掌握了關鍵材料，而臺灣理所當然，就是美日印太區域經濟架構及「供應鏈韌性」不可或缺的要角。所以臺灣必須要發揮其在美日印太戰略中的科技、地緣、民主等三大價值，以及足以對中國造成重大政經影響力的優勢，與美日相互緊密鏈結。 美國拜登政府這一年來積極推動印太戰略，在政治、外交甚至軍事方面成果豐碩，唯獨經貿領域乏善可陳，一直被質疑。最近終於提出明年將啟動「印太經濟架構」（Indo-Pacific Economic Framework）協定的構想，想藉此重返領導地位，對台灣、對亞太都是值得注意的發展。 從川普任期後半段到拜登上任，美國在印太地區動作頻繁。過去一年，跟日本、澳洲、印度領袖舉行了二次的四方安全會談（QUAD）；跟韓國、日本及東協都有簽署FTA，並舉行峰會互相拜訪；甚至建立了引發爭議的美英澳防衛協定（AUKUS）。但在經貿領域卻缺乏實質的進展。拜登總統於10月拋出將推動「印太經濟架構」，而商務部長Raimondo再度於11月有更具體的說明，終於對美國印太戰略的經濟面提出較為清晰的政策輪廓。 我們該如何解讀美國的這個新佈局？我認為有以下幾個重點： 首先，看來重返CPTPP不再是美國的選項，未來將以印太經濟架構為主軸。 第二，美國預計於明年2月開始啟動，而且印太經濟架構不是只有對話，將會以「協定」（agreement）的方式呈現。 第三，印太經濟架構不是傳統經貿協定，而將以如供應鏈韌性等新興區域性經貿議題為主。 這樣充滿創意的協定，是否能做為美國重返駕駛座的支援，尚待觀察；但可以預見的是，未來美國與印太盟友將會進入更有組織、更有方向的經貿問題討論，而且所談的問題以及解決方案，可能會脫離關稅、投資自由化以及貿易規則等我們熟悉的領域，進入一個全新模式。 面對這個新領域，臺灣必須注意： 1，必須熟悉新機制的影響與因應 無論物流之亂還是供應鏈韌性，在診斷問題時，不可避免的會以資訊蒐集與交換為基礎，以具體掌握瓶頸所在、研商可能的處理方式。也就是，近期台積電被要求「自願」提供產能資料的情況，有可能會成為印太經濟架構之下常態性、制度性的機制。 物流之亂的解決對台灣當然有益，而提高供應鏈韌性也有助於維持我國參與，但在過程中對於這些不熟悉新機制的影響及因應，也是台灣需有所準備之事。 2，盡早準備，以參與數位經濟與標準化制定 印太經濟架構的重點似乎不再是數位貿易規則，而是涉及資料跨境傳輸、資料保護、平臺互通及加密技術等國際標準的制訂。標準化是數位經貿規則的重要基礎，也是目前國際間進展較為不足的領域，台灣在標準化方面過去參與較少，也需提早準備。 3，面對已申請加入的CPTPP及未來的印太經濟架構，台灣要更靈活有彈性 印太經濟架構與CPTPP並不衝突，甚至有互補性。不過對於如供應鏈韌性、數位貿易標準化等面向上，在美中進入戰略競爭關係的局面下，美國主導的印太經濟架構可能形成與沒有美國參與的RCEP及CPTPP的競爭態勢。我國目前已正式申請加入CPTPP，對於印太經濟架構更有積極參與的重要性；同步準備積極爭取，是台灣應有態度。 二、歐洲商會近日向政府提出年度建議書，要求政府針對170項議題改善，其中118項是曾經提出的問題，52項則是新提出的議題。台灣有什麼啓發？ 國際媒體相關報導 ●Focus Taiwan中央社：〈EU business group urges Taiwan government to ease border controls〉(歐盟工商團體敦促台灣政府，放寬邊境管制) ●南華早報：〈EU shelves Taiwan trade upgrade amid high-wire balancing act on China〉(歐盟擱置台灣貿易升級，以應對中國採取高線平衡措施) ●聯合報：〈歐洲商會期盼提升能源 蔡其昌：努力中〉 分析解讀 台灣政府其實應高度重視這些建議，除了這是外資的客觀建議之外，也代表台灣過去習慣的海島思維自嗨心態，是時候該改變了。 歐洲商會的建議之所以如此重要，因它是台灣最大的外僑商會，包含400家企業和860位個人會員、30個產業和倡議委員會。歐洲雖和美、日同列為台灣三大外資（直接外來投資）來源，但台灣外來投資的首要來源，並非許多人想當然耳的美國或日本，而是歐洲。 以經濟部投資統計觀察，歐洲來台投資，在最新一年累積共有607億美元，遠超過美國的240億美元和日本的232億美元。若只看過去五年（2016-2020）的年平均投資，歐洲也以51億美元遠勝日本的9.4億美元和美國的2.5億美元。美國對台友好的「口惠」，並未像歐洲國家一樣落實在投資「行動」上。 而歐洲國家對台灣的巨額投資，也出乎許多人意料地，不是以德、英、法這些大國領先，而是由荷蘭領軍。荷蘭在台投資了近800件，金額達363億美元，佔全歐來台投資過半。這當然和荷蘭是歐洲電子業相對最盛的國家有密切關係，如荷蘭飛利浦就是台積電設立時的最大民間原始股東，迄今仍是台灣外資的領頭羊。 而台積電關鍵設備供應商－荷蘭的艾斯摩爾（ASML）去年也在台灣擴大投資，已僱用超過3,000名員工。 歐洲居次的德國雖有近千件投資，但總金額不過44億美元，只是荷蘭的12%；法國的700案只帶來13億美元投資， 反而是盧森堡（30億）和丹麥（33億）超前，這應和它們在金融和風電的全球化有關。這也意味著對德、英、法等大國的引資尚有極大潛力，有待政府和企業界共同努力。 雖然歐洲這幾年經濟表現看起來老態龍鍾，但以今年前十月的歐洲來台投資而言，主要分佈在電子零件業的2.7億美元、金融保險業的2.5億美元，以及批發零售業的2.4億美元，充分顯示歐洲一般企業對台灣的瞭解非常不夠，值得政府加大力道，促進歐商對台灣的瞭解，以發展針對歐洲的招商引資。 說到歐洲，很多人不知道歐洲佔全球GDP的份額高過了四分之一，本來歐洲企業在全球所有的創業投資 (VC) 的份額中只佔據不到十分之一，但現在情況正在發生改變。 數據提供商Dealroom表示，今年許多歐洲地區的創投交易都在猛增，歐洲今年成功吸引了全球18%的創業投資，這創下了歐洲的歷史新高，也為歐洲新創公司創造了更大的價值。歐洲現在已經出現了65個城市擁有獨角獸，這比全球任何地區都要來得多。 針對歐洲商會的建議，媒體的關注焦點，只放在其建議台灣防疫邊境管制應逐步廢止，為關鍵業務職位提供入境管道，讓企業得以維持業務營運和人才流通。我覺得這樣的觀點太過偏頗。 的確，台灣的疫情管制目前有點嚴苛，對大多數的外商來說很不友善。因管制機構不必承擔任何管製成本，導致企業付出了額外代價；特別是台灣今年高科技製造業的景氣特好，這種成本不會反映在成長率上，但從許許多多倒閉的服務業案例，卻可以看出這種額外代價。 歐洲商會的2022年建議書，主題為「台灣揚名全球的契機」，今天是由歐洲商會理事長張瀚書將建議書交給代表政府出席的國發會主委龔明鑫。這份建議書合計提出170項議題，議題範圍則廣泛包含了台灣沒有和國際接軌的規範或執行、外商進出臺灣的方便性和居留面對的困難、外商在台生活面對的困擾或阻礙等等。 在這170項議題中，很多人討論的是放寬邊境，但我認為最重要的其實是第一條--台灣應該更努力和國際接軌。因為若沒有高度的國際接軌，台灣就無法因引更多的國際投資和資金。這一點，我一直覺得台灣的努力還不夠。 例如在邊境管制方面，歐洲商會指出，台灣的成功得益於獨特的地理及經濟環境，因此置身於疫情最惡劣影響之外。如今疫情威脅程度已逐步趨緩，台灣不能再僅憑恃此優勢以維繫經濟運轉。台灣與國際間密切合作十分成功，但目前策略應配合局勢隨機應變，邊境限制應逐步廢止；而首要之務，是為關鍵業務職位提供進入管道。比起逐案審查，政府應制定明確的入境標準，讓企業得以維持業務營運和人才流通。 歐洲商會理事長張瀚書則說，希望政府針對整體規劃有比較有明確標準，畢竟企業需要的人才必須有方式讓他們入境，他們也會遵守相關控管。他舉了一個例子：有個總經理離開台灣被調去新加坡，但從國外派過來的接替人選卻進不來，公司陷入尷尬處境。後來用專案方式，才獲得批准入境。 另外，報告中還提到台灣的能源問題，並提出多項建議，例如，台灣2050淨零碳排的路徑草案到底是什麼？台灣未來的能源政策主軸又是什麼？這些問題，都值得台灣政府重視。 《經濟學人》總評 細看這一期的封面設計，你會看到在黑漆漆的封底前，是縱橫交錯的六條黃色封鎖線，封鎖線上用病毒圖案區開來的三個英文字，分別是OMICRON變種病毒、INFLATION通貨膨脹，以及CHINA SLUMP中國衰退。 經濟學人認為，這三個是現今全球最大的不確定因素。果不其然，中間幾個字說明了這次的封面故事焦點：「The threats to the world economy」(全球經濟面臨的威脅)。 在Covid-19疫苗問世以及取得臨床試驗成功不過剛剛滿一年，不料恐懼感又再次席捲了全球大部分的地區。11月24日首度在南非發現的Omicron變種病毒，似乎能夠成功繞過新冠疫苗所建立的防禦系統。世界衛生組織WHO已經宣稱Omicron 構成了「Very High非常高」的全球風險，默德納的老闆甚至警告說，現有的疫苗都很難成功抵禦這個深度變種的新冠病毒。 面對著更多的封鎖、邊境關閉和消費者焦慮的可怕前景，投資者能夠做的，就是拋售航空公司和連鎖旅館的股票。石油價格更是已經下跌了約每桶10美元，這種跌法，通常顯示的未來有可能會經濟衰退。 確實，現在要去判斷Omicron的變種突變是不是真的比Delta 變種病毒更具傳染性或致死率，目前還為時過早，隨著科學家未來幾周的分析數據出爐，流行病學界的看法將更加清確。但迫在眉睫的問題是，疫情蔓延的威脅將再次籠罩全球經濟，並放大原本就存在的這三個威脅。 首先，是富裕國家更嚴格的封鎖隔離，肯定將傷害經濟成長。在變種病毒的消息傳出後，各國已經開始阻止來自南非的旅客—這是最早發現Omicron的國家。 其次，不平衡的經濟復甦，可能加劇第二個危險，也就是這個變種病毒很可能會加劇已經很高的通貨膨脹，而且美國面臨的壓力將會最大。 最後一個危險最容易被人輕忽，那就是全球第二大經濟體中國的經濟放緩。如果事實證明 Omicron比Delta變種病毒更具傳染性，那將使中國目前的清零策略難以繼續，正在進行的各種管制政策，更會讓經濟增長雪上加霜。 總而言之，經濟學人這期的封面議題給了我們一個非常嚴肅的呼籲--全球經濟體系正在面臨著一系列接踵而至的新威脅。 Powered by Firstory Hosting

Yesterday the FDA finally approved both the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson booster shots. On Tuesday night, the January 6th bipartisan House committee voted unanimously in favor of contempt-of-Congress charges against Steve Bannon. Moving to our next story, Republicans in the Senate unanimously blocked yet another piece of voting rights legislation called the Freedom to Vote Act. Meanwhile, Manchin has reportedly told associates that he is considering leaving the Democratic Party if they don't agree to his demands to cut the infrastructure bill. Then, we cover some murder stories before closing with the Netflix employee walkout over Dave Chapelle's transgender comments in his comedy special. Resources/Articles mentioned in this episode: Washington Post: "FDA authorizes Moderna and Johnson & Johnson boosters and says people can get a shot different from their original dose" Reuters: "U.S. House committee backs contempt charge against Trump aide Bannon" NY Times: "Senate Republicans Block Voting Rights Bill, Leaving Its Fate in Doubt" Mother Jones: "Manchin Tells Associates He's Considering Leaving the Democratic Party and Has an Exit Plan" CBS News: "Manslaughter conviction of 21-year-old Oklahoma woman who suffered miscarriage sparks outcry" Washington Post: "Gunman in Parkland school shooting pleads guilty to murdering 17 people" NPR: "Potential human remains and items belonging to Brian Laundrie are found in Florida" AP News: "Chapelle special spurs Netflix walkout; ‘Trans lives matter'"

一週財經聚焦 一、9月27日，參議院共和黨議員阻止了民主黨提出的一項既要為美國政府提供運作資金，又要提高國家舉債上限的提案。在距離政府資金耗盡僅剩幾天之際，這個局面意味著，關於財政問題的政治較量逐漸升級，全球金融市場一下子陷入了恐慌情緒，怎麼解讀？ 國際媒體相關報導 ●Financial Times倫敦金融時報：〈Treasury bill market jolted as US debt ceiling fight drags on〉(隨著美國債務上限鬥爭的拖延，美國國債市場正在震盪) ●USA Today今日美國：〈Why does the federal debt limit matter? Here's what America's debt actually looks like〉(為什麼聯邦債務限額很重要？因為這就是美國債務的實際情況) ●REUTERS路透社：〈U.S. default would cause 'irreparable' harm, Yellen warns again〉(葉倫再次警告：美國違約將造成「無法彌補」的傷害) 分析解讀 其實，10年期美債殖利率本來就已經衝上3個月高點，外加美國聯邦參議院的這項避免政府「關門」、提高舉債上限的預算案，竟遭共和黨拒絕，一下子導致金融市場震盪。28日美股3大指數收黑，拖累29日台股大跌325.98點，失守半年線和「萬七」關卡。 美國財政部長葉倫（Janet Yellen）已公開示警，若國會無法取得共識，在10月18日前提高舉債上限，屆時聯邦政府手頭資金將用罄，恐導致美國發生史上首次債務違約，引發經濟衰退與金融危機等「災難性後果」（catastrophic consequences）。 針對葉倫的說法，我想透過5個Q&A，讓大家瞭解美國政府債務違約危機，以及可能對經濟情勢、金融市場造成的衝擊。 1. 何謂舉債上限？ 舉債上限（debt ceiling），亦稱「債務限額」（debt limit），是美國財政部為了支付各式「帳單」，被允許借貸的金額。 換言之，在光靠稅收不足以因應政府支出的情況下，美國政府可透過借錢的方式，支付包括社會福利、醫療保障、軍人工資，以及國債等諸多「帳單」，藉以維持國家運作。 據估算，目前美國國債現在已攀升至28.8兆美元以上，超過現行規範的28.4兆美元上限，這也是財政部希望提高舉債上限的原因。 2. 共和黨為什麼不支持提高舉債上限？ 共和黨認為，總統拜登所屬的民主黨，通過包括新冠肺炎疫情紓困、規模達3.5兆美元的社會安全網與氣候政策預算案，使美國處於「失控的支出狂潮」（out-of-control spending spree），恐導致國家債務持續膨脹。 共和黨強調，政府債務已超過國內生產毛額（GDP），在此情況下，民主黨政府應削減支出，而非提高舉債上限，繼續亂花錢。 3. 如果不提高舉債上限，會發生什麼事？ 若此狀況成真，美國將發生史上首次債務違約，結果難料，可能就如同葉倫投書《華爾街日報》所寫的，「會造成廣泛的經濟災難（widespread economic catastrophe）」。 4. 若美國政府債務違約，會對經濟造成哪些影響？ 假如美國政府債務違約，將使數百萬的美國人無法獲得社會保障、醫療保險等福利，聯邦政府恐發不出軍人、公務員薪資。 根據穆迪分析（Moody's Analytics）報告推估，若美國政府發生債務違約，勢必會造成GDP下滑，失去約600萬個工作機會，失業率將急劇攀升。 5. 假如美國政府債務違約，會對股市帶來多大衝擊？ 穆迪分析首席經濟學家贊迪（Mark Zandi）研判，美國政府債務違約，將對疫後初萌芽的經濟情勢帶來災難性打擊，金融市場自然難逃影響，「在拋售最嚴重的情況下，股市恐崩跌近3分之1。」 若情況真如贊迪預估，屆時將有高達15兆美元的家庭財富瞬間被抹除，且在舉債上限問題解決、恢復支付國債前，美債殖利率、抵押貸款利率，以及消費者、企業借貸利率，都會攀升。即使問題解決，利率也難回到先前水準，因為美國國債，已不再是無風險資產。 贊迪預期，若舉債上限僵局延續到11月，財政部將被迫刪減政府支出，藉以抵銷約2000億美元的現金赤字，按年化計算，規模相當於10%以上的GDP，可謂毀滅性的經濟衝擊。 債務限額，規定了美國最多可以借多少錢來支付政府的賬單，這其中也囊括了從社會福利項目到軍隊的工資。根據美國財政部的數據，自1960年以來，該限額已經被提高、暫停或者推遲了78次，其中29次是在民主黨政府時期，49次是在共和黨政府時期。 這非常有趣。 中國房產帝國「恆大集團」日前爆發債務危機，眾所周知，恆大之所以爆發財務危機，就是因為高槓桿經營、借錢太多。 恆大的經營理念，與當今美國政府，多少有些相似。 自柯林頓總統執政之後，美國財政赤字不斷走高；新冠疫情更是讓政府開支陡然增加，只能靠發行更多的國債，解決赤字問題。 高槓桿負債經營一向如此，債務暴雷前，外表永遠是光鮮；恆大「昨天」的狀況，與「今天」的美國何其相似；恆大的「今天」，也有可能成為美國的「明天」。 誠然，美國政府這一次，也可以如同過去無數次的做法，在期限截止之前共和黨讓步，讓美債再次突破上限。依靠美國強大的政治、軍事與經濟地位，讓全球投資者願意繼續借錢。正所謂小國無節制發國債，只會徒增國內通貨膨脹；美國發國債，流動性會被全球吸收。 不過借錢是有上限的。美國的上限，今天雖然暫時還看不到，但別忘記上述恆大的案例，誰能想到這間風光一時的企業，會面臨今日之困局。當再有新冠這樣的「黑天鵝」或其他「灰犀牛」事件到來，可能會發生你我都不願看到的情況。希望恆大前車之鑑，不要是美國的明天。 大部分華盛頓的觀察家認為，兩黨其實都不希望出現國家違約的情況，認為他們會以某種方式達成協議，而這很可能是在最後一刻。 這種情況以前也發生過，但並非沒有代價。2011年在共和黨人阻止提高債務限額後，直到距離美債違約僅剩幾天時間，共和黨終於讓步，因為他們擔心若繼續對峙，會讓中國坐收漁翁之利。 兩黨政策中心的經濟政策主管阿卡巴斯（Shai Akabas）警告稱，「這樣下去後果不堪設想，隨著我們不斷出現這種險象環生的情況，要求改變世界儲備貨幣的呼聲會越來越高。這不利於美元，但可能有利於人民幣。」 二、9月27日，福特汽車公司(Ford Motor Company)宣佈將與南韓電池生產商SK創新(SK Innovation Co Ltd)攜手投資114億美元，打造電動車電池工廠。這項消息帶動福特股價在盤後走高。 國際媒體相關報導 ●Bloomberg彭博新聞網：〈Another Big EV Battery Fantasy, Another Letdown for investors〉(另一個大型電動汽車電池幻想，投資人的另一個失望) ●CNBC：〈Ford CEO Farley says automaker's stock has 'tremendous upside' even after doubling in his first year〉(福特CEO表示，即使在第一年翻倍之後，汽車製造商的股票仍有「巨大的上漲空間」) ●The Wall Street Journal華爾街日報：〈EV Battery Investments Are Getting More Political〉(電動汽車電池投資越來越政治化) 分析解讀 9月30日，福特營運長Lisa Drake說明，預計到2030年時，福特在美國市場會有40%比例 (約150萬輛)車輛產品轉向電動車發展，而在全球市場則預期增加至50%，藉此擴大電動化發展目標。 福特接著宣佈，將在美國田納西州啟動藍瓦城 (Blue Oval City)計畫，將以超過56億美元，建造6平方英哩 (約1554平方公尺)的巨型電動車生產園區，不僅成為福特有史以來最大製造投資，更是福特計畫以114億美元擴大發展的其中一個項目。 同時，藍瓦城計畫也是福特與南韓電池供應商SK Innovation合作項目之一。在藍瓦城計畫以垂直整合形式運作中，更包含福特與SK Innovation共同建造的BlueOvalSK電池產線，藉此生產對應福特與林肯品牌電動車使用電池。 除了在藍瓦城之外，福特也計畫在美國肯塔基州與SK Innovation合作兩座電池工廠，分別將在2025及2026年投入運作。若加上藍瓦城計畫，約可在美國境內創造11000個工作機會。 回到整體的電動車市場，大家可能不知道，今年全球電動車(EV)銷售量可望達到預期的500萬輛，在晶片供應持續吃緊的狀況下，這也會帶來對半導體元件的更高需求。 有鑑於電池動力車輛的晶片內容加倍，市場研究機構IDTechEx預測，車輛電氣化趨勢，會在2021年帶來每輛車額外增加74美元的半導體需求。 面臨晶片缺貨的窘境，電動車業者的財報則是喜憂參半。福特(Ford)不久前宣佈將在電動車與電池生產上投入114億美元資金；而該公司於4月時曾表示，因為晶片供應鏈中斷，今年汽車銷售量會減少110萬輛。 日本車廠豐田(Toyota)在疫情爆發初期，強化了供應鏈渡過難關，之後儘管試圖從混合動力車輛轉向全電動車款，仍然減少了汽車產量。 於此同時，電動車領導業者特斯拉(Tesla)則聲稱，已經在很大程度上解決了晶片缺貨的問題，因此今年也計畫增加電動車產能。 也有越來越多的新興電動車廠鎖定利基市場，從中國的小型「城市車」，到豪華房車與休旅車(SUV)。小型城市車的數量規模有加大趨勢，因此也可能加劇目前晶片短缺的問題。 在這些新興電動車廠中，美國業者Lucid Group不久前宣佈，其位於亞歷桑納州的「先進量產工廠」將生產Lucid Air房車。該公司號稱已經取得超過1萬3,000張訂單，預計在10月就開始出貨。 電動車的競爭，看起來日趨白熱化。 這些車廠因應供應鏈變化挑戰的案例，讓市場研究機構預測電動車未來將會持續成長。DTechEx指出，Ford認為2021年第二季晶片供應鏈中斷的狀況已經「觸底」。不過也有市場分析師指出，2022年晶片短缺情況是否會逐步改善，主要得看居家辦公應用領域的晶片需求是否減少，而非晶圓代工業者是否增加產能。 雖然部分專家依然看好特斯拉，預估其目標價為每股3000美元，但券商TD Ameritrade首席市場策略家基納漢（JJ Kinahan）卻指出，近期部分投資人已開始賣出特斯拉股票。基納漢說：「他們賣股有幾個原因，第一是因為特斯拉重回700美元之上，大家逢高賣出；第二個原因，則與特斯拉在電動車領域面對愈來愈多競爭有關。儘管通用等新對手的電動車之路並非一帆風順，但競爭愈來愈激烈，也造成部分投資人擔憂。」 基納漢說：「去年競爭明顯白熱化，我們的客戶通常賣掉特斯拉後，會換股操作福特和通用。」今年福特和通用股價分別上漲48%和18%，特斯拉則大約是7%。 基納漢也表示：「福特和通用都還沒證明可以在電動車領域與特斯拉分庭抗禮，目前特斯拉優越的電池技術與製造能力，還是有護城河。但我想我們客戶真正期待的，是福特和通用能持續改善策略，隨著時間過去大幅增加競爭力。」 KPMG安侯建業日前發布了一項報告，工業產業主持會計師張字信表示，過去一個世紀以來，石油驅動內燃機（ICE），這樣的單一燃料動力組合，主導了全球汽車工業體系。然而，在全球環保意識抬頭趨勢下，電動車產業逆勢成長，許多先進國家陸續提出燃油車輛退場時間表，先行啟動的國家為挪威與荷蘭，他們宣佈將於2025年禁止銷售燃油新車。在此政策推動之下，將有利電動車的發展，預估未來十年，全球電動車銷量將速度增長。 根據本次調查報告內容，KPMG特別彙整四大重點，「後燃油車時代，汽車產業的下一步」，供汽車產業參考。 1. 10億美元以上的融資，證明電動車方興未艾 雖然我們仍然不知道電池支援的電動汽車（BEV）什麼時候會達到轉捩點，並受到廣大消費者的青睞，但隨著拜登的基礎建設計畫，以及特斯拉的生產銷量和利潤看來，證明汽車產業此起彼落的投資，超過10億美元的開發電動車項目，正在蓄勢待發。 2. 汽車產業不轉型就淘汰 分析師預估，2030年電動車的普及率，將從24%提升到40%，讓傳統車廠備感壓力。如果2030年電動車市佔率達到30%，屆時全球每年將近4,000萬輛燃油車將產能過剩，相當於200家組裝工廠的產量。傳統車廠若不能夠適當地轉型，很可能將面臨倒閉。 3. 多元動力加速研發，以滿足不同需求 目前車廠正面臨轉型的關鍵時期，將捨棄燃油車，主攻電動車。未來將不僅只有電動車，而是會有多種燃料／動力組合，包括內燃機混合車及氫電混和車等，將會是百花齊放的局面，以滿足不同市場的需求。 4. 電動樁、智慧電網的佈局將成為發展關鍵 電動車的佈局，不僅僅是生產製造，要讓電動車普及，充電樁是最關鍵角色。即使在像美國這樣富裕的國家，電動車的基礎設施也尚未完全到位，除了電動樁的建立，電力的供給也存在著不確定性。 全球近40億人們生活在電動車基礎設施不完善的國家，即使在富裕經濟體下，電網也很微弱，許多國家尚未做好電動汽車普及化的準備。台灣也應該去思考城市如何普及電動樁？電動樁是否該成為買房新標配？以及老舊住宅如何透過法令與設計設置充電樁……等問題。 全球汽車產業因新冠肺炎疫情，遇上前所未有的衝擊，並加速了電動車的發展，傳統汽車大廠若無法順利轉型，將面臨倒閉或被收購。十年後，汽車產業將面臨全面的「結構性變化」，汽車產業的排名順序可能會大洗牌，未來幾年將是汽車產業關鍵時刻。新的競爭者拓展其市佔率，舊秩序可能會被打亂而價值鏈將被打破，供應鏈也將重新配置，企業將需要重新調整其業務組合，發展新的商業模式，才能帶動產業變革。 《經濟學人》總評 這期的經濟學人雜誌，我要推薦的是英國版本。在英國版本的封面設計上，經濟學人以一個勘著英國國徽，自高空墜地的火箭筒，諷刺著今非昔比的倫敦金融城。上面兩排字體，黑字寫的是「From Big Bang to a whimper」(從金融大改革到一個獨自低鳴)；小紅字寫的則是「The state of London's stock market」(倫敦股票市場的現況)。 Big Bang，意指金融大改革，或「金融大爆炸」。金融大改革是指英國在1986年由柴契爾政府領導的倫敦金融業政策變革。該變革旨在大幅度減少監管。改革後，外國財團被允許購買英國上市企業，倫敦金融城投資銀行和經紀公司的構成和所有權，發生了翻天覆地的變化。金融城引入更國際化管理作風，使用電腦和電話等電子交易方式，取代了過去傳統的面對面談價，使競爭激烈程度劇增。 在英國版本的封面故事裡，探討的是倫敦股市的糟糕狀態。 2006年時，在倫敦上市的企業全體市值還佔全球股票市場的10.4%，但今天，這個份額只剩下了3.6%。倫敦落後的情況，甚至遠遠不如那些原來就處於落後群體的股票市場。同時期，它在歐洲股票市場總市值中的份額，也從36%下降到了22%。FTSE 100指數中，只有不到2%的價值是來自科技企業，而美國的S&P 500指數中，則有著近40%來自科技公司。 股票市場是任何聲稱自己是金融中心的一個重要組成部分，上市企業對上市地區的金融活動，以及迎合這些活動的會計和法律服務，都會產生影響。金融服務業一直是英國最成功的產業之一，更貢獻了高達6%的GDP和約10%的英國稅收。 倫敦股市迫切需要一個拯救方案，經濟學人提出了一些建議，包括改革公司治理規則、減少上市的繁文縟節、改革資產管理公司發展，以及鼓勵新創企業上市等等。 我個人覺得，英國的經驗非常值得台灣參考，因為台灣的金融市場也是動作太慢！ Powered by Firstory Hosting

Show Notes: 0:00 Big week for the besties: Friedberg's new raise, Sacks' new fund & more 16:30 Innovative venture strategies: internal mark ups, venture studios, deployment strategies 30:44 Zymergen's implosion: role of diligence, how to make deep tech sustainable, finding frauds 43:26 How personal risk impacts decision making on a grand scale, narratives and fundraising 59:12 Chamath & Jason share Theranos stories, Jason calling out frauds 1:07:36 Financial deplatforming, Square acquires Afterpay, Square's savvy move, fintech's future, Jack Dorsey's unique position of power 1:28:05 New Yung Spielburg banger: "Friedberg Index" Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: CNBC - Early Google exec got Larry Page's backing to build a start-up factory focused on saving the planet https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/david-friedbergs-alphabet-backed-production-board-raised-300-million.html Medium - Announcing Craft III: $1.1 Billion for SaaS and Marketplaces https://medium.com/craft-ventures/announcing-craft-iii-1-1-billion-for-saas-and-marketplaces-c3c34448db17 CNBC - Synthetic biology company Zymergen plunges 68% after saying product revenue will be ‘immaterial' in 2022, removing CEO https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/03/zymergen-zy-plunges-68percent-on-forecast-for-immaterial-revenue-in-2022.html Zymergen - Zymergen Provides Business Update https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/08/03/2274125/0/en/Zymergen-Provides-Business-Update.html Reuters - U.S. charges Nikola founder Trevor Milton with lying to investors https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-charges-nikola-founder-trevor-milton-with-lying-investors-2021-07-29 CNBC - Square to buy Australia's Afterpay in $29 billion deal as ‘buy now, pay later' trend takes off https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/02/square-to-buy-australia-fintech-afterpay-amid-buy-now-pay-later-trend.html

一週財經聚焦 一、6月8日，美國參議院高票通過《美國創新與競爭法》（USICA），將投入2500億美元加速美國的人工智慧、半導體晶片和量子運算等新興技術產業的發展，除了希望維持美國科技技術強國的地位，更希望能與中國的科技相抗衡。 我們要怎麼看待這個全球產業的地緣新政治？ 國際媒體相關報導 ●CNBC：〈Senate passes $250 billion bipartisan tech and manufacturing bill aimed at countering China〉(參議院通過旨在對抗中國的2500億美元的兩黨科技和製造業法案) ●Reuters路透社：〈U.S. Senate advances sweeping tech bill taking aim at China〉(美國參議院推動針對中國的全面科技法案) ●Economist經濟學人：〈Doves become hawks〉(鴿派變鷹派)；小標：〈A big shift among China-watchers〉(中國觀察家間的一個大轉變) 分析解讀 仔細去看《美國創新與競爭法》的內容，我們可以發現它建立在一項名為《EFA無盡邊疆法》（Endless Frontier Act）的提案之上，是拜登政府上台以來的重大法案之一，更是延續了4月21日國會山莊裡一項名為SCA《Strategic Competition Act 戰略競爭法》的法案。這是共和、民主兩黨難得有共識通過的法案，希望能讓美國在激烈的技術競爭中，仍能領導產業超越創新、超越生產，並在競爭中超越世界。 贊同《美國創新與競爭法》的議員多半認為，如果不能擴大美國的半導體生產或改變稀土供應鏈，將可能使美國在未來幾年處於戰略劣勢。因此將根據法案，不僅將協助晶片製造商與各州各地方政府協調建廠所需的土地資金，更將提供520億美元，推動美國半導體的研發製造。 《美國創新與競爭法》也將提供1900億美元，支持美國國家科學基金會等學術機構的研究發展，同時也向美國各地區撥款100億美元，建立新的技術中心，並鼓勵科技公司在矽谷和東西兩岸以外的地方設立據點，創造更多高科技產業的就業機會。 雖然有人認為，這項法案在一定程度上被當作就業計劃來推銷，但圍繞著法案表決的辯論，卻有不少帶有冷戰色彩的語言，並且發出警告：如果不採取行動，美國將會危險地依賴其最大的地緣政治對手。 紐約州民主黨參議員、參議院多數黨領袖Chuck Schumer，最近在參議院全體會議上就警告：世界各地的威權主義政府嗅到了進攻機會。他們認為，像美國這樣的爭吵不休的民主政府，在投資國家優先事項上，不可能像自上而下、中央集權和威權政府那樣團結。由此可見，美國現階段的憂慮感是前所未有的。 我也注意到，這項法案裡避免使用「產業政策」這個詞，因為他們知道，該詞會重新引發一場30年之久的辯論：「是否由政府來挑選贏家和輸家，或是否要支持某些行業而非其他行業。」 這場辯論可追溯到雷根(Reagan)政府時期。當時，美國半導體和汽車行業面臨的最大威脅是日本，當時聯邦政府開始了一些小規模的計劃，包括為重振半導體行業制定的，名為「Sematech」的計劃。 「這項法案意味著我們將對量子計算、人工智慧、生物醫學研究，或存儲技術進行投資，然後由私營部門將知識轉化、創造就業，這些都是我們需要做研究的主導領域，有工業增長潛力的領域。它們將帶來巨大的就業增長。」Chuck Schumer說到。 這次與20世紀80年代那場辯論的差異是，當年日本既是工業競爭對手，也是軍事盟友，而現在，中國是正在崛起的地緣政治對手，這就改變了對峙的性質。在20世紀80年代，沒有人會擔心日本會將自己最大的企業作為監控工具或潛在的戰爭武器來使用，但對中國來說，所有的擔心都有可能。 這項法案最引人注目的地方，是其資助的項目與中國的《中國製造2025》非常類似。中國政府六年前宣佈的《中國製造2025》計劃，將巨額政府開支投入到尋求不依賴外部供應商的技術行業。 對於這項法案，川普當時是大力反對的。這項立法可能會加快全球第一大(美國)和第二大經濟體(中國)之間的脫鉤。北京擔心，中國將在未來幾年裡，在最先進的晶片和尖端軟體上依賴外國技術；華盛頓也有類似的擔憂，擔心中國在5G技術上的主導地位，將賦予北京切斷美國電信技術的能力。 事實上，拜登在政策上鮮少沿襲前任總統川普，而對中貿易是少數意見一致的領域。他保留川普對北京制訂的關稅、擴大中國企業黑名單後，為維持美國競爭優勢，現在還要國會通過研發投資計畫。 美國創新及競爭法已獲參院通過，我認為觀察重點在下列幾項： 一、 關乎哪些領域？ 拜登和川普都主張把製造業工作從海外帶回美國，尤其是半導體與醫療器材等具戰略性的產業，但北京似已贏得這場製造戰。隨著6年前展開的「中國製造2025」計畫，北京甚至還想主掌明日的科技。因此，美國現在改弦易轍，追求的是一個範圍較局限的目標：捍衛美國產業與科技公司的領導地位。 民主與共和兩黨都擔心北京在5G方面的進展，可能危及國安，對貿易機密與個資帶來威脅，或是讓惡意行為者得以破壞網路。 二、黑名單 川普以國安為由，禁止電訊商購買被認為有風險企業的零件。川普的命令特別針對中國科技巨擘華為，而上週，拜登不僅擴大了禁止與美國做生意的企業名單，並修訂川普原本的行政命令，將涉及監控技術的公司納入其中。 三、關稅 在川普任內，美國對中國進口商品課徵數以千億美元的懲罰性關稅，拜登並未解除這些關稅，其貿易代表戴琪甚至不諱言，這些做法都是為了施壓北京。 四、和中國的類似之處 中國補貼企業並大幅挹注投資，美國今天通過的創新及競爭法作法如出一轍，是以提振國內就業為目標。未來5年間，美國政府將投資520億美元，鼓勵半導體製造與科技研發，另15億美元則作為開發5G技術之用。「利用國家資本主義」這一點，美中皆然。 五、未來會如何發展？ 在川普任內，美中關係日益惡化，但經濟仍密切連結。在疫情與貿易戰雙重因素之下，兩國商務往來已受影響，下一個問題，將是世界前兩大經濟體要如何開始真正脫鉤。 我覺得比較值得注意的是，川普一直希望一個美中商業世界的脫離，所以川普就任期間，經常在做著抨擊中國的事情，只有偶爾會稱贊一下習近平。 這種口是心非的兩手做法已經是他執政的一個特徵。 但由他的貿易代表Robert Lighthizer和國務卿Mike Pompeo為代表的對華鷹派更已經把鴿派的影響力壓制了下去。 回想尼克森（Richard Nixon）於1972年2月對北京進行著歷史性的訪問時，他曾經向毛澤東保證，中美兩國都沒有制定全球的霸權計劃，這意味著儘管彼此之間存在分歧，他們仍可以共同努力去找到共同點。 尼克森之行不僅標誌著美國與中國的關係發生了轉變，而且標誌著美國解析中國的重心也發生了變化。 中國觀察家抱著一種鴿派的假設，那就是中國對美國沒有威脅，並希望彼此的約定意味著它會變得越來越像美國。 經過半個世紀，這種平衡已經轉而向著鷹派看法轉移，就像在冷戰時那樣，它變成一種意識形態的競爭。現在的中美關係是自尼克森進入中國以來五十年間最彼此尖銳對峙的一刻。 一位曾對幾個美國總統提供中國意見的前政府官員這樣說道：今天，想成為對中國態度的鷹派不需要勇氣，但不想成為對中國鷹派的一員反而需要勇氣。許多人在華盛頓看見了一個期待新冷戰的氣氛，像川普一樣，拜登現在的官員談論的是與中國的「戰略競爭」，而不再是合作。 在美國及其全球的民主盟友之間，針對中國的鷹派情緒也越來越高漲，對中國強硬將越來越受到歡迎。美國看待中國的看法已經截然不同，再也沒有人認為中國是一個貧窮而需要幫助的可憐國家，越來越多的人一口咬定中國就是一個有錢而且窮凶惡極的壞人。但讓溫和派甚至一些鷹派擔心的是，如果中國認定了拜登政府其實和川普一樣會處處壓制中國，那它將如何因應？尼克森對華開放的戰略意義在於當時他們有一個共同的敵人，那就是蘇維埃聯盟。 但現在的美國和中國只剩下彼此了。 二、6月9日，中國公佈了5月份消費者物價指數（CPI）年增1.3%，是近8個月高點；受原物料價格高漲影響，工業生產者物價指數（PPI）則年增了9%，更創下了逾12年半高點。通貨膨脹真的像美國官員認為的無關痛癢？還是其實灰犀牛已經慢慢成型？ 國際媒體相關報導 ●FT：〈China's producer prices rise at fastest pace in 13 years〉(中國生產者價格以13年來最快速度上漲)；小標：〈Soaring commodity prices drive PPI up 9% in May, stoking global inflation concerns〉(大宗商品價格飆升推動 5 月份 PPI 上漲 9%，引發全球通脹擔憂) ●CNBC：〈Chinese factories worried about profits face a record gap between rising production costs and〉(selling prices擔心利潤不佳的中國工廠面臨生產成本與銷售價格之間的創紀錄差距) ●WSJ：〈China's Surging Manufacturing Prices Put Pressure on Beijing to Do Something About Them〉(中國不斷上漲的製造業價格讓北京不得不採取一些行動) 分析解讀 中國國家統計局在官網公佈，5月份工業生產者物價指數（PPI）年增9%，超出市場預期的8.5%，創2008年10月以來最大升幅。月增1.6%，升幅也比4月擴大0.7個百分點，大宗商品加價帶動工業品價格繼續上升。 中國統計局城市司高級統計師董莉娟表示，國際原油、鐵礦石、有色金屬等大宗商品價格大幅上升，國內需求穩定恢復，工業品價格繼續上升。 生產物價指數（Producer Price Index，簡稱PPI）是一個用來衡量製造商出廠價格的平均變化的指數，它是統計部門收集和整理的若干個物價指數中的一個。如果生產物價指數比預期數值高時，表明有通貨膨脹的風險。如果生產物價指數比預期數值低時，則表明有通貨緊縮的風險。 通貨膨脹指某個經濟體中商品和服務的成本上漲。這轉而意味著該經濟體每一單位貨幣值得的商品或服務減少，通貨膨脹亦可視為貨幣貶值，也有人說「錢不值錢」。而我對通貨膨脹的定義就是：當你感覺東西不趕緊買會越來越貴的時候就是Inflation；而當你感覺價格會下跌幹嘛急著買，那就是deflation，所以預期扮演非常重要的角色。 無獨有偶，六月10日，美國勞工部今（10）報告稱，由於美國通膨壓力持續增加，5月份的CPI（消費者物價指數）年增率達5%，創近 13 年以來最快增幅。 所以也在六月10日，我們看見德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）發表了警告，世界正在經歷 40 年來經濟最大的方向轉變，未來幾年全球經濟將出現毀滅性通膨上升，將波及地球每個角落，對人們生活造成嚴重破壞。德銀擔心通脹捲土重來的時間點在 2023 年，不斷上漲的價格會觸動每個人，尤其對社會最弱勢的群體帶來毀滅性影響。報告指出，低／穩定通膨和歷史低利率是過去三年宏觀政策的黏合劑，這種情況未來一兩年內會開始瓦解，政策制定者將面臨自 1980 年代以來最具挑戰性的年代。 接著，WSJ華爾街日報也來湊熱鬧，報導認為中國大陸南部繁忙的港口，爆發一波碼頭工人感染潮，已耽擱全球海運作業；染疫風暴也籠罩台灣和馬來西亞的半導體供應鏈，加劇全球汽車和科技產業遭遇的晶片缺貨情況。若是問題遲遲無法化解，不僅大陸、美國等地的通膨氣焰將愈發熾熱，也可能打擊全球經濟成長。 前國際貨幣基金學院（IMF Institute）院長Leslie Lipschitz最近撰文，從以下幾個層面，詳細剖析各種可能的通膨情境對經濟有何意義： 良性的通膨展望 第一個問題是，通膨會升到什麼地步？未來幾年通膨年增率是會升到4%左右，然後就降下來？或者，有理由擔心聯準會（Fed）可能控制不了工資上漲螺旋，類似1970年代和1980年代初期的情況，導致通膨率竄升到二位數？ 如果是第一種結果，沒什麼理由驚慌。通膨率溫和、短暫地攀升，可能促進相對價格和工資的調整，反映供應稀缺性和需求的結構性轉變。 再者，通膨也是解決政府債務過多問題的一種方法——形同對債權人徵稅。債務的名目利率通常是固定的，通膨率升高有助於壓低實質利率，償債壓力將隨之減輕。 這顯然是Fed所預見的通膨情況，背後依據的看法是：工資溫和調漲令人樂觀其成，而工資和通膨預期仍會受數十年來始終低迷不振的低通膨抑制，李普希茲認為，這是良性的通膨展望，看似言之成理。 惡性的通膨展望 但最近的數據令人吃驚。主要經濟指標顯示，物價顯然急遽上揚。在截至2021年4月的12個月期間，美國消費者物價指數（CPI）勁升4.2%，生產者物價指數（PPI）更躍升6.2%。 供應瓶頸普遍見於林林總總的投入品：金屬、木材、食品、半導體和包裝材料。船運成本也飆升，波羅的海乾散貨指數（Baltic Dry Index）一年來飆漲逾450%，漲到十年多來最高價位。 儘管就業人數仍遠低於新冠肺炎疫情爆發前的水準，已有證據顯示許多部門遭遇勞工短缺問題。某些投入品供應受限的情況很可能揮之不去。 此外，如果這世界真的開始朝「綠能」轉型，稀土金屬以及像鋰、鎳、石墨等礦物短缺情況勢必惡化，導致價格大幅上漲。 面對近來供應吃緊和價格暴漲，通膨預期仍舊會不動如山嗎？假如通膨預期失控，造成價格-工資螺旋，Fed有能力控制住那種局面嗎？ 1970年代的歷史教訓 回顧1970年代到1980年代初投入價格震撼和後續引發通膨的情況，有助於瞭解通膨走高可能引發什麼糟糕的後果。 在1973-1974與1979-1980期間，美國蒙受重大的貿易條件損失，與那段時期的石油價格震撼有關。這種貿易條件損失有如在海外被課稅。貿易條件損失推升消費者物價，相對物價變化對政府財政形成問題，也向受薪階級和企業主管傳達矛盾的訊息。但當時的工會力量很大，才造成了惡性通貨膨脹，今天大企業的議價權更強，應該不至於造成物價與工資循環上漲的惡性通貨膨脹。 防止令人憂心的情境發生 現在比較令人擔心的是目前美國私部門的財務槓桿率非常高，這是在多年來低利率鼓勵和Fed默許下的結果。2020年美國非金融企業的債務逼近GDP的85%，遠遠超越1970年代高峰時的53%，以及2008年金融海嘯爆發前的72%。 因此，利率若是大幅調升，可能在各行各業之間掀起一波企業債務違約潮，重創銀行和其他債權人。 美國股市目前本益比已高，對利率和獲利展望十分敏感。假如獲利展望惡化，預期收益折合成現值的折讓率又擴大，美股將承受雙重打擊，不動產市場也會遭殃。 而且政府用來抗景氣循環的政策彈藥也將用罄。貨幣政策將不得不轉向提高利率以抑制通膨。財政政策則可能更捉襟見肘，礙於政府債務佔GDP比率升到歷來非戰時最高紀錄、並隨實質利率走高而擴增，甚至風險溢價升高終會降低全球對美國公債的需求。 另外一個最大的問題在於中國會不會成為通貨膨脹輸出的最大來源？ Bloomberg今日則引述未具名消息人士報導，有鑑於夏季用電需求高漲、能源成本居高不下，北京當局考慮設限燃料煤（thermal coal）價格。當局內部討論方案之一，是設限採礦商的煤炭售價。山西省重要產煤地榆林市已開始測試售價限制的規定。另一方法是對秦皇島港的標竿售價設定每噸900~930元人民幣上限，這能對全國市場造成影響。不過消息透露，是否真要管制價格還無定論。 CNBC 今日報導，長江商學院金融教授Gan Jie表示，她的團隊上週調查超過2,000家中國工業企業查，結果發現與3月底、4月調查時相比，業者較悲觀，因成本大幅上升，預料趨勢恐延續至今年底。調查並顯示，營益率低於15%的業者佔比上升至七成。 Gan表示，企業毛利遭到壓縮，數家業者甚至拒絕接單，因為生產愈多，虧損愈大，淨利已轉負。 很容易看明白為什麼人們會擔心。 6 月 9 日中國的5 月份出廠價格正以年均 9% 的速度上漲，已經是過去十多年來的最高水平。如果再加上運輸成本的飆升和人民幣的走強，可能會整個推高從手機到床墊等所有中國製造商品的價格。 美國 在4 月份從中國進口商品的成本已經比一年前增加了 2.1%，這已經是自 2012 年以來的最快增長速度。 然而，中國出口通貨膨脹的風險可能被誇大了。中國生產者價格的上漲只有一部分反映了中國境內的因素。 其強勁的經濟復蘇是由住宅和基礎設施的投資帶動的，這才推高了鋼鐵的價格。 為了實現綠色轉型的目標，中國政府已經控制了煤炭和鋼鐵的生產能力。 官員們還誓言要打擊中國國內商品期貨的「過度投機」，並公開暗示因為期貨價格具備助漲價格的潛在風險。 相反的，大多數價格壓力反映的其實是新冠病毒籠罩的世界特殊性。 全球對消費品的需求——你可以在家中上網購買的東西——都在飆升。 中國的出口量比疫情爆發前的趨勢高出了大約 20%，工廠一直在努力跟上訂單。 全球大宗商品供應的中斷，例如限制智利和秘魯銅礦開採的封鎖措施，同步推高了價格。 相較於傳遞這個疫情衝擊，中國企業其實吸收了其中的大部分影響力。 與 2019 年底相比，在 Covid-19 襲擊全世界之前，中國的出廠價格就上漲了近 6%。 但衡量中國製成品消費者物價指數僅上漲了 0.6%。 企業不得不以更薄的利潤想方設法度日。 這是朱先生想與客戶分擔痛苦的主要原因。 而且，中美兩國的政策環境也大不相同。 美國聯准會FED大幅放鬆了貨幣政策，而中國人民銀行則相對保守了許多，甚至開始謹慎地收縮了貨幣政策。 這可能有助於解釋兩國通貨膨脹軌跡的差異。 在美國，美國聯准會FED首選的「核心」消費者價格指標（不包括食品和能源）在 4 月份同比上漲 了3.1%，這是1992 年以來的最大漲幅。在中國，核心物價指數在今年五月份僅同比上漲了0.9% 。 從長遠來看，一些分析人士認為，中國人口老齡化將轉化為通貨膨脹的力量。 在2000 年代初期，中國的低工資才讓全球各地的消費品變得更加便宜。所以他們認為勞動力供應的減少和工資的上漲應該會產生相反的通貨膨脹助漲效果。 但這其實不是一個明確的判斷邏輯。 低端製造業已經轉移到了像越南和孟加拉國等更便宜的區域，而中國本身自動化的快速增長也有幫忙抑制了成本價格的上漲。 不過，現在最急迫的問題還是中國的投入要素價格通貨膨脹到底只是暫時的還是有可能更加持久？經濟學人認為答案其實在中國以外。 隨著疫苗的推出越來越受到了歡迎，加上美國和歐洲慢慢恢復了更接近正常的生活，人們可能會在旅遊和外出就餐等服務上花費的更多，而不會繼續靠著在網上購買商品過生活，這將緩解大宗商品的上漲壓力，然後慢慢緩解掉中國工廠面臨的壓力。 所以問題很可能爆發在中國以外，美國Wells Fargo經濟學家也表示，「現在每個人都在試圖提高價格，危機之前很少出現這種情況。」但特殊情況是，現在消費者對更高通膨的容忍度比其他時候要高，原因是有很多額外儲蓄，但如果消費者和企業繼續預期更高通膨，那麼真正的通膨可能會到來。 因為接下來勞工可能會要求加薪，企業會提高價格，造成通膨長期超過美聯儲 2% 的年度目標，並可能迫使央行提前加息，但富國銀行認為這個故事還需至少一年醞釀。 但目前全球面臨的共同問題就是供應鏈難題，或許美國國際金融協會（Institute of International Finance）首席經濟學家Robin Brooks的話最適合作為總結： 越來越多國家都苦惱於供應中斷、運輸問題、交貨延遲的問題，這早晚將導致各公司不得不提高價格以補償。 《經濟學人》總評 封面故事 經濟學人在這期的封面上讓我們看見的是一個向下傾斜的綠色玻璃瓶，瓶里塞著的是一堆亂七八糟糾纏在一起的太陽能板和風力發電機組。封面上方兩排黑色字體，大字寫的是：Bunged up 堵住了。小字則是：How the green boom could get stuck 綠色繁榮是如何陷入困境的？ 緒論第一篇第11頁

The news to know for Tuesday, May 18th, 2021! We have updates about the U.S. Supreme Court taking up a case that could allow justices to revisit Roe v. Wade. We'll also explain the new plan to donate some of America's COVID-19 vaccines to other countries. Plus, a major media merger, a new warning about some cryptocurrency scams, and the new products Google might unveil today. Those stories and more in just 10 minutes! Head to www.theNewsWorthy.com or see sources below to read more about any of the stories mentioned today. This episode is brought to you by Rothys.com/newsworthy and Ritual.com/newsworthy  Thanks to The NewsWorthy INSIDERS for your support! Become one here: www.theNewsWorthy.com/insider              Sources: SCOTUS Taking up Major Abortion Case: Politico, NY Times, Axios, AP, WSJ, SCOTUS Gaetz Associate Pleads Guilty: WaPo, Politico, Reuters, AP Cyclone Tauktae Hits India: BBC, CNN, WaPo, Reuters U.S. Exporting More Vaccines: Bloomberg, USA Today, WSJ, NPR, White House Covid Deaths, Cases Decline: Reuters, NY Daily News, WaPo, CDC WarnerMedia and Discovery Merger: Axios, WSJ, The Verge, Mashable, CNN, AT&T Crypto Investment Scams: CNBC, The Hill, Business Insider, FTC Google Developer Conference Starts: Engadget, PC Mag, ARS Technica, Yahoo Finance, Wear OS Watch the Conference: YouTube Microsoft Teams Launches Personal Version: The Verge, Cnet, Engadget, Microsoft Teams Travelers Booking Flights in Record Numbers: Motley Fool, Forbes, Simple Flying, TSA

一週財經聚焦 一、4月16日，台股再度大漲站穩了一萬七大關，台灣也幸運的沒有被列入匯率的操縱國。 隨著新台幣兌美元匯價創 1 個月的新高，國際美元卻持續走弱，我們要怎麼看待美國的基本面？美元還會走強嗎？為什麼？ 國際媒體相關報導 ●CNBC：〈Gold heads for best week in 4 months on subdued dollar, yields〉(隨著美元下跌，金價達到四個月來的新高) ●Reuters路透社：〈U.S. dollar net shorts fall to lowest since June 2018〉(美元跌至2018年6月以來最低) ●FT倫敦金融時報：〈What a stronger dollar means for the world〉(強勢美元對全世界的意義)；小標：〈The currency's turnround should boost US imports but have a negative impact on emerging markets〉(美元貨幣回升，應會增加美國的進口量，但會對新興市場產生負面的影響) 分析解讀 美國公債殖利率與美元近來連袂大跌。由於買盤重回美債，帶動價格上漲，美國10年公債殖利率週四急落至1.531％，大跌逾10個基本點，創逾六個月以來單日最大跌點。美元指數近期仍在近一個月低檔整理，本週來跌幅約0.6％，很可能寫下周線連二貶的低潮。 投資人今年稍早拋售美債，是因為看好疫苗接種計畫與政府紓困方案可望刺激經濟復甦，並催高通膨，接下來就會迫使聯準會（Fed）升息。但投資人現在開始懷疑，這些預期是否會真的發生。 美元走貶主因，是Fed官員一再重申超寬鬆貨幣政策仍將持續很長一段時間，舊金山聯準銀行總裁Mary Daly甚至指出，美國經濟距離明顯邁向Fed的2％通膨率與充份就業目標仍有一大段距離，呼應主席鮑爾「短時間內都不會升息」的說法。 無論如何，對市場而言，如何看待未來一段時間的外匯市場，美元是絕對一個關鍵。我們是否要拋售美元資產？ 從市場的角度而言，美元不應該、也不會太弱。伴隨著美債收益率的不斷上升，美元指數從今年初開始逐步走強。而如果美元不斷走強，新興市場也會在某個時點上面臨較大的壓力。 在這樣的十字路口，我們應該如何判斷美元？我想分兩個層面--經濟面與政治面來看。 經濟面 如何判斷基本面？ 從一個較為直觀的感受來說，支撐美元的最重要因素，是美國公債殖利率的上揚。其背後的因素就是美國經濟的復甦，以及拜登政府即將推出的一系列刺激計劃。從這個角度而言，支撐美元走強的因素，是經濟基本面的走強。 然而，美國大規模的刺激計劃，將必然帶來大規模的財政赤字，這會加劇了未來美國政府融資的壓力。兩者的角力，讓市場觀點相對的雜亂，但認真說起來，只要美國經濟前景能夠好轉，那麼美元至少沒有太明顯的貶值風險。 如果以上的這些分析可以成立，我們可以判斷，美元的走強並非偶然事件，美元繼續走強的機率也很高。 「跛腳鴨」走勢合理麼？ 另外，外匯的走強是一個相對概念。就美元指數而言，如果市場預測其將出現崩塌式的下跌，那麼其對應籃子中最重要的兩個貨幣—歐元和英鎊，將需要大幅度走強。但現在希望歐元大幅度走強，簡直就是緣木求魚，很難。 資本流入助推新興市場 表面看來，新興市場貨幣的升值似乎有可能，其背後有兩個因素，第一是貿易流，因為歐美經濟的「停擺」，導致大量的需求轉向新興市場；第二個因素，則是因為經濟基本面好轉，新興市場收益率現在較高。 但新興市場的經濟狀況並非一致，其間有貿易順差擴大的經濟體，也同樣存在經常項目惡化的經濟體。總體而言，貿易是否帶來外匯淨流入，仍然存在較大的疑問。而且理論上，外資在進入新興市場時，通常會通過衍生品市場進行對衝，所以影響不可能太大。 事實上，正因為外資在去年大規模進入新興市場，投資者更需要擔心未來可能出現的反向操作，以及可能帶來的踩踏效應。 避險偏好和美元的關係 另一個讓市場困擾的因素是避險偏好。 因為迄今為止，美國仍然是全球金融市場的遊戲規則主導者，在實際的市場表現中，我們卻往往看到這樣的場景：即便美元會伴隨風險出現而走弱，但卻經常因為危機出現的避險需求，而突然大幅走強，最後美元的總體波動依舊不會太大。但從2008年的金融危機以來，美元的走勢仍然是上升的。 總而言之，短期內利差攀升支持美元反彈，未來3個月我還是看漲美元。不過，這種情況不會持續太久，預期之後隨各地疫苗接種速度加快，美國經濟復甦也帶動其它地區復甦，美國與其他國家利差應不會擴大，資金可能再度流向美國以外地區，尋求報酬收益機會。所以中期可能美元會走軟，但長期肯定還是走強。 為什麼美元長期仍然是走強？這就牽涉到政治面。 政治面 總體來看，現今的「美元體系」主要靠以下三個機制來運行： 商品機制 中國、日本、德國等以貿易為主的國家，向美國出口、賺取美元以後，再將其中相當大部分收益借給美國，所以美元是世界清算貨幣、結算貨幣和主要的資本市場交易貨幣。如果不借錢給它，美國需要自己滿足基礎貨幣發行的話，它就會印鈔，反而會讓美元貶值，這表示我們本身擁有的美元外匯存底會縮水，這是我們不願意看到的。 另一方面，美元貶值意味著我們本國貨幣會升值，對出口非常不利。所以，作為貿易國家的悲劇就在於，我們需要被動地維持美元匯率的穩定，儘量不讓美元貶值。這就是我們必須購買美國國債、公司債的原因。 石油交易的美元計價機制 1971年，尼克森關閉「黃金視窗」、美元與黃金脫鉤之後，美元面臨的最大問題，是如何確保自身的儲備貨幣地位。為此，美國迅速找到了「石油」這項工具，與沙烏地阿拉伯等國建立了石油交易的美元計價機制。這意味著，其他國家若要進口石油，必須用美元支付，因而就必須儲備美元。 美國對外債務的本幣計價機制 美國80%以上的對外債務，都是可以自己印刷美元去計價的。在理論上和實務上來講，針對自己的對外負債，美國可以通過印刷美元解決。事實上，美國在2008年危機之後，已經搞了四次量化寬鬆(QE)，釋放出大量流動性。 無論經濟面或政治面，在我看來，「美國衰落」有一個重要的觀察指標，就當美國對外發債的時候，如果大部分國家不用美元，而是改用歐元、英鎊、日元或者人民幣，那就意味這個國家真的是衰落了。 如果這件事情沒發生，請不要輕言「美國衰落」，美元會貶值。 二、4月16日，花旗集團宣佈，將退出包含台灣在內的13個消費金融業務市場，改而聚焦在更有利可圖的亞洲富豪業務上，計劃在香港、新加坡增聘2300名員工。 背後的原因是什麼？站在台灣的角度怎麼解讀？ 國際媒體相關報導 ●New York Times紐約時報：〈Citigroup to exit 13 global consumer banking markets, including India, China〉(花旗集團將退出包括印度與中國在內的13個全球消費金融市場) ●FT倫敦金融時報：〈Citigroup to exit most of its Asian consumer businesses〉(花旗集團退出大部分亞洲消費業務)；小標：〈Jane Fraser moves to cut costs in retail network soon after taking over as chief executive〉(Jane Fraser接任CEO後，不久就著手削減零售網絡的成本) ●WSJ華爾街日報：〈Citigroup Refocuses Asia Strategy as It Pulls Back From Consumer Banking〉(花旗集團調整了亞洲戰略的步伐，退出了消費金融業務)；小標：〈The New York-based bank is planning to hire 2,300 people and expand assets under management to $450 billion in Asia〉(這家總部位於紐約的銀行，計劃增增聘2300名員工，並將管理的資產擴大到4500億美元) 分析解讀 花旗銀行宣佈，要退出亞洲、歐洲、中東及非洲地區等13個市場零售銀行事業，台灣赫然在列。最對熟悉台灣金融市場發展的人來說確實難以想像，也有著曾經滄海難為水的複雜心情。 這很有趣，花旗銀行新任CEO Jane Fraser在剛宣佈上任時，倫敦金融時報曾寫過這樣一段話： 花旗集團現在不是美國大型銀行中最強的，這是最有趣的一件事。下一任CEO（也就是Jane Fraser）的最重要任務，是讓花旗銀行變得更加乏味。花旗銀行的歷史，正是讓它如此迷人，但新任CEO任務又如此艱钜的主要原因。 在20世紀大部分時間裡，花旗一直是美國企業全球化的一個金融標誌，也是美國國務院的一個私營部門。它仍然是一家出色的全球企業金融和投資銀行，是全球現金管理和外匯交易的領導者。 在美國國內，它在1960年代和70年代，曾經是信用卡業務的創新者，即使今天它仍然是美國主要的發卡機構。但2008年的危機表明，這種「金融超級市場」的結構，不能提供穩定的作用，反而提供了金融恐慌擴大的最可能管道。 而改善資產負債表，最好的方式就是「減法」，想以投資銀行為首，零售銀行為主體的銀行也是可以很好地運作，JPMorgan Chase和Bank of America是最好的例子。但要注意的是，這些銀行的零售業務全是在美國國內的，相比之下，花旗則令人費解，因為它的三個零售部門彼此之間，或對全球機構運營幾乎沒有益處。外國零售業務被認為有風險，尤其墨西哥，而花旗在美國國內零售部門，相對之下規模又較小。 這種結構的最終結果是什麼？就是2019年有形股東回報率為12％，分別落後於摩根大通和美國銀行的17％和15％。 擁有劍橋經濟和哈佛企管雙碩士的Jane Fraser，從進入Goldman Sachs高盛集團開啟她的事業，一路高昇成為McKinsey & Company麥肯錫顧問公司合夥人。她在2004年加入花旗集團，歷經投資、併購及拉丁美洲等部門多項磨練，現在正式接棒成為花旗集團執行長。 大部分與她共事過的人所說，她做決定很迅速，是位能夠一邊著手眼前的事、一邊思考長期策略的領導者。對於如何讓花旗再次強大，這個女性的CEO曾說過「我相信透過簡化，反而能解鎖企業未被發掘的價值。」 花旗最主要獲利來源之一是企業金融，在全球96個國家，為政府和企業提供金融流通服務，並為企業提供貸款，再透過售出債權等方式獲利。相較之下，消費金融則需耗費較多設點成本，藉由開立更多分行，才能接觸更多客戶。因此儘管Fraser尚未公佈簡化計畫的內容，各界專家都認為花旗應更聚焦在企業金融，花旗放棄部分在亞洲的消費金融事業，理所當然。 倫敦金融時報分析，Fraser接棒後得面臨兩個挑戰，一是像摩根大通和美國銀行一樣，將銀行龐大的規模，轉換成較高的股東回報。 另一個挑戰，則是花旗業務結構性的問題。雖然花旗的業務遍佈全球，但多半是以信用卡為主，而信用卡的獲利越來越低。 其實外商銀行過去十年，在亞洲經營都很辛苦，尤其在最大的兩個經濟體--中國大陸和印度， 中國大陸的挑戰來自國有銀行的競爭，而印度對外商銀行有更嚴格的資本要求，重重的挑戰已讓許多外資銀行陷入困頓。 不過，仍有一些大型的外商機構看好亞洲市場成長潛力，並願意繼續押注，瞄準財富管理等領域。滙豐銀行（HSBC）正打算進一步深耕大陸市場，也已選定南亞作為拓展重點，尤其是財管業務。DBS則正在接管印度的Lakshmi Vilas Bank，這項交易是由印度央行負責協調，也是印度央行首度尋求外商銀行紓困經營困難的當地銀行。三菱UFJ金融集團等日本銀行，則已表達拓展印度市場的興趣。 許多人對花旗銀行都有一些建議，例如麥肯錫的分析師Joydeep Sengupta說，或許數位銀行是能夠扭轉印度市場結構的機會，一些業者可能願意賭一把，但這會場豪賭。 另外很多人知道，花旗開始向加密貨幣比特幣（Bitcoin）靠攏，更於3月發表一份比特幣的研究報告，力挺比特幣有機會成為國際貿易間的首選貨幣，不過這份報告之後卻出現數據上的瑕疵。這也顯示花旗在跨出新步伐的同時，必須要更加謹慎，才能獲得更長遠的益處。 從以上的分析來說，花旗銀行退出亞洲消費金融市場是情有可原的。 對台灣來說，很多人已經在猜它目前估值500億，但首先、花旗台灣的財富管理業務，會不會保留部分高端理財不賣，目前還不得而知；其次，台灣市場可否單獨出售，目前也不清楚。我想各金控最關心的，還是花旗台灣的財富管理業務賣不賣？最新財報顯示，財富管理才是花旗在台灣最賺錢的個人金融業務。但截至目前為止，這些細節仍猶未可知。 《經濟學人》總評 封面故事 這期經濟學人有三個封面故事，亞太版本談的是緬甸，歐洲版本談的是大英帝國未來的命運，而我選擇的是北美版本的封面故事。 在封面設計上，我們在黑色的封底前，看見一個西裝筆挺的企業家被修圖成了一個大聲公，上面諷刺的寫上了「The political CEO」(充滿政治味道的CEO)。 經濟學人早在2014年就曾直言，美國的自由主義者擔心精英分子早晚會操控美國的經濟，普羅大眾更認為，美國政府與聯準會關心的是華爾街，而不是一般人民；很多待過中國大陸的人，喜歡批評中國就是一個為權貴分子搭建的紙牌屋。 事實上，沒有人會喜歡「裙帶關係」，但沒有人會否認「有關係就沒關係，沒關係就有關係」。在台灣，甚至是號稱民主燈塔的美國，也無法擺脫「裙帶關係」的糾纏。政商關係、裙帶關係的合流共生其來有自，它只是隨著時代的演進，以各種不同的形態出現在你我的身邊。 《經濟學人》在這次的三篇文章中報導的是一個政商關係糾纏的時代。今天，政治與商業的糾纏在美國變得越來越難以劃清界線。企業家有時會為了追求表面的面子與尊嚴拋頭露面，例如在喬治亞州和其他州的選舉改革法案頒布時，我們看見的那些CEO大聲抗議。我們更常看見那些政商不明的CEO批評時政，JPMorgan Chase的CEO Jamie Dimon就在許多重大的問題，諸如軍事採購、刑事司法議題上，不時發表他的看法。 《經濟學人》認為，這所有一切都反映了在公關遊說圈裡，這些企業人士是如何積極的在想方設法，擴大自身企業的經營利益。當然，裡面更包括了為各種既得利益者提供的籠絡服務，最終目的就是為了讓他們的企業獲得對大的利益。 《經濟學人》相信，企業在競爭激烈的市場中運營，可以促進社會的進步。但身為古典自由主義的一份子，《經濟學人》更認為權力過度集中在政商關係是危險的。商人總是為了自己的利益而進行交陪、應酬、打球與遊說，他們離政府圈子越近，對經濟和政治的威脅就會越大。政官關係自古以來就有，但對整個社會來說，是不利的。 Powered by Firstory Hosting

The news to know for Thursday, June 25th, 2020! What to know today about: a new record peak in daily COVID-19 cases the travel advisory trying to slow the spread of the virus President Trump sending protection to certain statues historic changes coming to this year's DNC a warning about one particular brand of bottled water big boom in fireworks sales ...and more in less than 10 minutes! Then, hang out after the news for the Thing to Know Thursday bonus interview. Our guest explains what to consider if you plan to travel anytime soon... Head to www.theNewsWorthy.com/shownotes to read more about our guest or any of the stories mentioned. This episode is brought to you by www.Skillshare.com/newsworthy and www.Blinkist.com/news  Thanks to The NewsWorthy Insiders! Become one here: www.theNewsWorthy.com/insider       Sources: New COVID-19 Records: NBC News, CNN, WaPo, WSJ, Johns Hopkins States Impose Quarantine on Travelers: CNBC, USA Today, AP, Reuters U.S. Marshals, National Guard Deployed: WaPo, FOX News, AP, USA Today, WaPo, Tweet Seattle Protesters Leaving: CNN, Seattle Times, KOMO Congress Stalled on Policing Bills: Axios, Reuters, Politico, WSJ, FOX News Nearly All-Virtual Democratic Convention: Axios, AP, Reuters, WSJ Amazon Fraud Crackdown: CNBC, The Verge, Amazon Whole Foods Bottled Water Warning: CNN, USA Today, FOX Business, Consumer Reports Fireworks Sales Boom: CNN, The Atlantic, NBC News, Business Insider NASA Names Headquarters after “Hidden Figure:” NASA, CBS News, Engadget