Podcasts about kansas city fed

Every year the Kansas City Fed hosts the Jackson Hole symposium. All eyes are on the opening speech from Jerome Powell which was widely covered by the news media. To me, the more interesting talks are the invited speakers who give talks on various elements of the economy. The theme this year at Jackson Hole is demographics and the impact on the labor market. So this week we will be doing a mini series summarizing the most noteworthy talks from Jackson Hole this year. The paper we are examining is by Emi Nakamura from Berkeley University. In this paper the author is examing the Taylor Rule named after John Taylor who came up with the observation after six years at the Fed, specifically examining the Alan Greenspan years. Emi Nakamura shows convincingly that the Taylor Rule rarely if ever applies in the real world, except for those six years. -------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Former Kansas City Fed President Esther George discusses the Trump-Cook Saga with Bloomberg's Scarlet Fu and Bailey Lipschultz.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets have brushed off the Nvidia result and chosen to extend their risk appetite. The S&P500 is at another new record high. But bond markets aren't so sure this is justified.In the real world, US initial jobless claims were little-changed last week from the prior week, both in actual terms and from what seasonal factors would have suggested. There are now 1,945,000 people on these benefits, +101,500 more than at the same time last year.The American GDP Q2-2025 GDP was revised slightly higher in its second estimate than the first mainly due to a slightly smaller decline in investment.Pending home sales fell -0.4% in July from June, extending the -0.8% drop in the prior month to mark the first back-to-back contraction since January. They were down -0.7% from a year ago as the American housing market seems in a long-term slow decline having never really recovering from the pandemic period.The Kansas City Fed factory survey was stable overall but that was despite a fall in export orders and elevated cost pressures. survey. There was a modest rise in August from July, but most metrics are still lower than a year ago.Earlier today there was a much less supported US Treasury seven year bond auction (-11% less bid value) but the median yield fell to 3.87% from 4.06% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In Canada they reported that average weekly earnings were up +3.7% to C$1,302 in June, following a +3.3% increase in May.In India, industrial production rose in July and the pace picked up by more than expected. The expansion was +3.5% when +2.1% was anticipated, and more than double the pace of June's +1.5%.In Europe, despite their inflation pressures being modest and on target, settling it at 2.0%, the overnight release of the ECB minutes revealed a split among policy makers on how to assess future risk. They left their policy rate unchanged despite some thinking rates need to go lower to support growth and counter US tariffs, while others thinking the risk of future inflation is rising. Despite that split review, in the end the decision to hold rates unchanged was unanimous.Global container shipping freight rates fell -6% last week from the week before to be -60% lower than year-ago levels, although that year-ago base reflected unusual stress in the Red Sea shipping lanes. Once again, the recent falls are all to do with outbound trade from China. Interestingly, Chinese shippers are now targeting Australia and New Zealand, along with the Middle East because of the higher rates they can get in these alternative trades. Bulk cargo rates are little changed week-on-week but are up nearly +20% from a year ago.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.21%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,415/oz, up +US$20 from yesterday.American oil prices are little-changed at US$64/bbl with the international Brent price is still just under US$68/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.9 USc and up +30 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.4, and up a net +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,596 and up +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Every year the Kansas City Fed hosts the Jackson Hole symposium. All eyes are on the opening speech from Jerome Powell which was widely covered by the news media. To me, the more interesting talks are the invited speakers who give talks on various elements of the economy. The theme this year at Jackson Hole is demographics and the impact on the labor market. So this week we will be doing a mini series summarizing the most noteworthy talks from Jackson Hole this year. Some of these talks are considered boring by the news media and they don't get covered. But for those who seek to understand how the economy functions, these talks are very interesting.On today's show we are examining a paper called "Interstate Labor Mobility and the US Economy". It has four authors, two from the University of Michigan and two from Europe. Their paper discusses how Gross migration rates within the United States have undergone a subtle but significant transformation over the past five decades. While some sources, notably the Current Population Survey (CPS), paint a picture of a steep decline, plunging from over 3% to a mere 1.2% by the end of the sample period, a closer look at more robust data tells a different story. Using IRS data, the authors show that labor force mobility declined to 2.5% from 3% over that same time period. They further break down the components of why people move. One factor that I believe was not adequately addressed is the rise of remote work. People don't have to move for work in many instances. That virtual mobility may in fact be by choice rather than necessity. -------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Every year the Kansas City Fed hosts the Jackson Hole symposium. All eyes are on the opening speech from Jerome Powell which was widely covered by the news media. To me, the more interesting talks are the invited speakers who give talks on various elements of the economy. The theme this year at Jackson Hole is demographics and the impact on the labor market. So this week we will be doing a mini series summarizing the most noteworthy talks from Jackson Hole this year. Some of these talks are considered boring by the news media and they don't get covered. But for those who seek to understand how the economy functions, these talks are very interesting. Our first one is focused on a talk by Claudia Goldin from Harvard University.-----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Your mid-week commentary is a day early this week because I am putting out a special film tomorrow all about everyone's favourite metal. Watch your inboxes.There is a shift of enormously significant proportions taking place. In magnitude it will prove as significant as Bretton Woods in 1944, when the dollar became the de facto global reserve currency, and the Nixon Shock of 1971, when the US abandoned the last vestiges of its gold standard.This shift is going to shape the global financial landscape over the next few years. You need to understand what is happening, so that you can position yourself and your family.You may even be able to profit handsomely from the transition.Today we explain US dollar policy: what is going on and, more importantly, where it is all going.Ready? Here goes.The Manufacturing Imperative and The Curse of the Reserve CurrencyAmerica wants to bring manufacturing back on shore. We all know this. US President Donald Trump has said it repeatedly, his VP JD Vance has said it, and so has his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who keeps reminding us that it is now time to prioritise Main Street over Wall Street.Part of the reshoring of US manufacturing involves tariffs, as we know all too well. Part of it involves weakening the US dollar to make US exports more competitive. Again Trump, Vance and Bessent have all said it.However, there is a problem, and that problem has a name: Triffin's Dilemma.You might think it's an advantage to issue the global reserve currency. You can issue dollars. Everyone else has to work for them. The French called it "America's exorbitant privilege." But this was a status the US engineered for itself during the Bretton Woods Agreement that determined the monetary order at the end of World War Two.What has happened, however, is that it has made the US fat and lazy, especially since 1971 when the US abandoned the ties of the dollar to gold.To supply the world with dollars, the US must run trade deficits. That is to say it must buy more than it sells. Persistent trade deficits have, over time, eroded its industrial base. Factories and jobs have gone offshore. Foreign nations have used their profits to invest in US capital markets and its debt. Meanwhile financial markets - aka Wall Street - have grown and grown, as America financialized.The Trump administration gets it in a way its predecessors did not. Vance has actually called the dollar's reserve status a "tax" on American producers.What's more, as this process has continued, the credibility of the dollar itself is being called further into doubt.Trump wants to revitalise America's Rust Belt. But there is more to it than that. As the curtains pulled back with Covid, the extent to which the US has been operating with its trousers down was exposed: an excessive dependence on China and its supply chains for too many strategically essential products, especially related to health, tech and the military. Then, during the Ukraine conflict, NATO found itself unable to match Russian production. The US, in short, is struggling to produce critical goods. It's why Trump keeps harping on about rare earth metals. It is vulnerable.The answer is to engineer a "managed decline" of the dollar as global reserve asset.The Golden Exit StrategyThis was already happening organically. China, for example, has been reducing its holdings of US treasuries for ten years now - quite gradually - although its US dollar holdings remain above $3 trillion.Meanwhile, China - and many other countries along the Silk Road besides - have been increasing their gold holdings, and quite dramatically. (In my view China has at least four times as much gold as it says it does. You can read more on this in my book). The process is known as de-dollarisation. Just a few months ago gold overtook the euro to become the second most held asset by central banks, while the dollar itself fell beneath 50% for the first time this century.We are not seeing a move towards any other national currency as global reserve, but towards the neutral but universal asset that is gold, as analyst Luke Groman points out. That suits all the main players. Gold is neutral, and both the US (supposedly) and China have lots of it.Indeed, a gold revaluation would be a "win-win" for both. A higher gold price would strengthen US fiscal flexibility while boosting Chinese consumers' wealth, encouraging domestic consumption and reducing trade imbalances.There is the potential to leverage the US's 261 million ounces (8,133 tonnes) of gold reserves, currently marked to market at just $42/oz. There are two ways this might be done. Economist Judy Shelton has proposed issuing Treasuries that are in part backed by gold to offset the inflation/debasement risk to make them more attractive to buyers. The other possibility (which has gone from, as Bessent put it, "we are not doing this" to "we are not doing this yet") is to revalue the gold from $42 to the current price of $3,300/oz, which would create over $850 billion of reserves without having to incur any extra debt. That would help with the US's current fiscal challenges: true interest expenses (including entitlements and veterans' affairs) currently exceed 100% of Treasury receipts.If you buying gold or silver coins to protect yourself in these “interesting times” - and I urge you to - as always I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.In short, the US administration is leaning into a weaker dollar and neutral reserve assets like gold to rebalance trade and rebuild domestic industry, even at the cost of short-term economic pain.Your really should subscribe.Bitcoin's Digital Advantage and The Stablecoin BridgeBitcoin, as the world's best neutral digital currency, is going to have a role to play in all of this as well.The US is quite happy with that, as evidenced by its pro-bitcoin rhetoric. At the national, corporate and individual levels the US has a lot of bitcoin. The US itself has 198,000 coins, the most of any nation, Strategy (NYSE:MSTR) has 630,000 and many other companies besides also hold, and at least 15% of US citizens own bitcoin. Of the eventual 21 million supply, of which probably 15% has been lost and another 1.3 million are locked up by Satoshi Nakamoto and will likely never appear (he is almost certainly dead), the US has a hefty chunk.Which brings us to the recent Genius Act. This effectively nixed CBDCs just as the EU's Christine Lagarde was planning to phase them in (LOL). However, it supported stablecoins (that is coins backed by dollars). The more bitcoin grows the more the stablecoin market will grow. As the stable coin market grows so will its demand for treasuries. Today, roughly half the entire US dollar stablecoin market, estimated at $250 billion, is invested in US treasuries (maybe 2% of the overall treasuries market). Tether is the world's 7th largest buyer.The market is small, but growing rapidly. 2035 projections include $500 billion (J.P.Morgan's projection) to $2 trillion (Standard Chartered) and $4 trillion (Bernstein) by 2035."If the stablecoin market meets these growth projections," says the Kansas City Fed, "it could lead to a substantial redistribution of funds within the financial system."In other words the stablecoin market is going to help the US fund its debt, just as other nations move away from treasuries to gold and bitcoin.Gold might suit the US, but bitcoin suits it better, especially if there are complications surrounding the Fort Knox gold, which it seems there are. Why no audit yet?Tell people about this.Gold vs Bitcoin, Analogue vs Digital: The Coming ShowdownIt's likely a few years from now there is going to be some sort of showdown between gold and bitcoin in the battle for primary reserve asset status. It's unlikely to be both. Governments will favour gold, as they have lots of it. Tradition is on their side. Eternal gold has a track record that is unrivalled. But it is an analogue asset in a digital world. Bitcoin is much more practical. Which will win out? Practical digital or impractical analogue?This is a contest that is still a way off. For now all roads lead to gold and bitcoin as the world de-dollarizes.Own both is what I say.Needless to say the UK is absolutely clueless in all of this, having sold two-thirds of its gold in 1999, made it near impossible for UK citizens to buy bitcoin, now planning to sell its bitcoin holdings, now the largest holder of US treasuries in the world after Japan and making no attempt to buy any gold.With the threat of AI and automation to America's jobs - especially in driving where millions work - there is the risk of mass unemployment coming quite quickly, and with it plentiful defaults on mortgages and loans. This could force the U.S. to print money, driving inflation and providing yet another reason to own gold and bitcoin, which cannot be debased.From October 8th, UK citizens will finally be able to buy bitcoin ETNs.I was lucky enough over the weekend to find myself as a house guest under the same roof as Interactive Investor CEO Richard Wilson. We talked a lot. He knows how landmark the date October 8th is for UK investors and has made sure II are well positioned in a way that other brokerages are not. You might not be able to buy the US ETFs due to FCA nonsense, but anything listed in the UK will be available. So if you don't already have an account at II you might do well to open an account now. Click this link and the first year is free.In short, the dollar will weaken significantly over the next three years. The pound is a basket case. National currencies are not stores of wealth. Gold and bitcoin are. Own both as the Trump administration addresses Triffin's Dilemma through a managed dollar decline. They will use gold and potentially bitcoin to restore US industrial and military strength.You have been warned.Tell people about this post.Watch your inboxes. Tomorrow I'll be putting out a 15-minute film all about gold called The Eternal Metal. On which note, The Secret History of Gold is out now. Got yours yet?The Secret History of Gold is available at Amazon, Waterstones and all good bookshops.Amazon is currently offering 20% off. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Your mid-week commentary is a day early this week because I am putting out a special film tomorrow all about everyone's favourite metal. Watch your inboxes.There is a shift of enormously significant proportions taking place. In magnitude it will prove as significant as Bretton Woods in 1944, when the dollar became the de facto global reserve currency, and the Nixon Shock of 1971, when the US abandoned the last vestiges of its gold standard.This shift is going to shape the global financial landscape over the next few years. You need to understand what is happening, so that you can position yourself and your family.You may even be able to profit handsomely from the transition.Today we explain US dollar policy: what is going on and, more importantly, where it is all going.Ready? Here goes.The Manufacturing Imperative and The Curse of the Reserve CurrencyAmerica wants to bring manufacturing back on shore. We all know this. US President Donald Trump has said it repeatedly, his VP JD Vance has said it, and so has his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who keeps reminding us that it is now time to prioritise Main Street over Wall Street.Part of the reshoring of US manufacturing involves tariffs, as we know all too well. Part of it involves weakening the US dollar to make US exports more competitive. Again Trump, Vance and Bessent have all said it.However, there is a problem, and that problem has a name: Triffin's Dilemma.You might think it's an advantage to issue the global reserve currency. You can issue dollars. Everyone else has to work for them. The French called it "America's exorbitant privilege." But this was a status the US engineered for itself during the Bretton Woods Agreement that determined the monetary order at the end of World War Two.What has happened, however, is that it has made the US fat and lazy, especially since 1971 when the US abandoned the ties of the dollar to gold.To supply the world with dollars, the US must run trade deficits. That is to say it must buy more than it sells. Persistent trade deficits have, over time, eroded its industrial base. Factories and jobs have gone offshore. Foreign nations have used their profits to invest in US capital markets and its debt. Meanwhile financial markets - aka Wall Street - have grown and grown, as America financialized.The Trump administration gets it in a way its predecessors did not. Vance has actually called the dollar's reserve status a "tax" on American producers.What's more, as this process has continued, the credibility of the dollar itself is being called further into doubt.Trump wants to revitalise America's Rust Belt. But there is more to it than that. As the curtains pulled back with Covid, the extent to which the US has been operating with its trousers down was exposed: an excessive dependence on China and its supply chains for too many strategically essential products, especially related to health, tech and the military. Then, during the Ukraine conflict, NATO found itself unable to match Russian production. The US, in short, is struggling to produce critical goods. It's why Trump keeps harping on about rare earth metals. It is vulnerable.The answer is to engineer a "managed decline" of the dollar as global reserve asset.The Golden Exit StrategyThis was already happening organically. China, for example, has been reducing its holdings of US treasuries for ten years now - quite gradually - although its US dollar holdings remain above $3 trillion.Meanwhile, China - and many other countries along the Silk Road besides - have been increasing their gold holdings, and quite dramatically. (In my view China has at least four times as much gold as it says it does. You can read more on this in my book). The process is known as de-dollarisation. Just a few months ago gold overtook the euro to become the second most held asset by central banks, while the dollar itself fell beneath 50% for the first time this century.We are not seeing a move towards any other national currency as global reserve, but towards the neutral but universal asset that is gold, as analyst Luke Groman points out. That suits all the main players. Gold is neutral, and both the US (supposedly) and China have lots of it.Indeed, a gold revaluation would be a "win-win" for both. A higher gold price would strengthen US fiscal flexibility while boosting Chinese consumers' wealth, encouraging domestic consumption and reducing trade imbalances.There is the potential to leverage the US's 261 million ounces (8,133 tonnes) of gold reserves, currently marked to market at just $42/oz. There are two ways this might be done. Economist Judy Shelton has proposed issuing Treasuries that are in part backed by gold to offset the inflation/debasement risk to make them more attractive to buyers. The other possibility (which has gone from, as Bessent put it, "we are not doing this" to "we are not doing this yet") is to revalue the gold from $42 to the current price of $3,300/oz, which would create over $850 billion of reserves without having to incur any extra debt. That would help with the US's current fiscal challenges: true interest expenses (including entitlements and veterans' affairs) currently exceed 100% of Treasury receipts.If you buying gold or silver coins to protect yourself in these “interesting times” - and I urge you to - as always I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.In short, the US administration is leaning into a weaker dollar and neutral reserve assets like gold to rebalance trade and rebuild domestic industry, even at the cost of short-term economic pain.Your really should subscribe.Bitcoin's Digital Advantage and The Stablecoin BridgeBitcoin, as the world's best neutral digital currency, is going to have a role to play in all of this as well.The US is quite happy with that, as evidenced by its pro-bitcoin rhetoric. At the national, corporate and individual levels the US has a lot of bitcoin. The US itself has 198,000 coins, the most of any nation, Strategy (NYSE:MSTR) has 630,000 and many other companies besides also hold, and at least 15% of US citizens own bitcoin. Of the eventual 21 million supply, of which probably 15% has been lost and another 1.3 million are locked up by Satoshi Nakamoto and will likely never appear (he is almost certainly dead), the US has a hefty chunk.Which brings us to the recent Genius Act. This effectively nixed CBDCs just as the EU's Christine Lagarde was planning to phase them in (LOL). However, it supported stablecoins (that is coins backed by dollars). The more bitcoin grows the more the stablecoin market will grow. As the stable coin market grows so will its demand for treasuries. Today, roughly half the entire US dollar stablecoin market, estimated at $250 billion, is invested in US treasuries (maybe 2% of the overall treasuries market). Tether is the world's 7th largest buyer.The market is small, but growing rapidly. 2035 projections include $500 billion (J.P.Morgan's projection) to $2 trillion (Standard Chartered) and $4 trillion (Bernstein) by 2035."If the stablecoin market meets these growth projections," says the Kansas City Fed, "it could lead to a substantial redistribution of funds within the financial system."In other words the stablecoin market is going to help the US fund its debt, just as other nations move away from treasuries to gold and bitcoin.Gold might suit the US, but bitcoin suits it better, especially if there are complications surrounding the Fort Knox gold, which it seems there are. Why no audit yet?Tell people about this.Gold vs Bitcoin, Analogue vs Digital: The Coming ShowdownIt's likely a few years from now there is going to be some sort of showdown between gold and bitcoin in the battle for primary reserve asset status. It's unlikely to be both. Governments will favour gold, as they have lots of it. Tradition is on their side. Eternal gold has a track record that is unrivalled. But it is an analogue asset in a digital world. Bitcoin is much more practical. Which will win out? Practical digital or impractical analogue?This is a contest that is still a way off. For now all roads lead to gold and bitcoin as the world de-dollarizes.Own both is what I say.Needless to say the UK is absolutely clueless in all of this, having sold two-thirds of its gold in 1999, made it near impossible for UK citizens to buy bitcoin, now planning to sell its bitcoin holdings, now the largest holder of US treasuries in the world after Japan and making no attempt to buy any gold.With the threat of AI and automation to America's jobs - especially in driving where millions work - there is the risk of mass unemployment coming quite quickly, and with it plentiful defaults on mortgages and loans. This could force the U.S. to print money, driving inflation and providing yet another reason to own gold and bitcoin, which cannot be debased.From October 8th, UK citizens will finally be able to buy bitcoin ETNs.I was lucky enough over the weekend to find myself as a house guest under the same roof as Interactive Investor CEO Richard Wilson. We talked a lot. He knows how landmark the date October 8th is for UK investors and has made sure II are well positioned in a way that other brokerages are not. You might not be able to buy the US ETFs due to FCA nonsense, but anything listed in the UK will be available. So if you don't already have an account at II you might do well to open an account now. Click this link and the first year is free.In short, the dollar will weaken significantly over the next three years. The pound is a basket case. National currencies are not stores of wealth. Gold and bitcoin are. Own both as the Trump administration addresses Triffin's Dilemma through a managed dollar decline. They will use gold and potentially bitcoin to restore US industrial and military strength.You have been warned.Tell people about this post.Watch your inboxes. Tomorrow I'll be putting out a 15-minute film all about gold called The Eternal Metal. On which note, The Secret History of Gold is out now. Got yours yet?The Secret History of Gold is available at Amazon, Waterstones and all good bookshops.Amazon is currently offering 20% off. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

The focus is on Jackson Hole, WY., ahead of U.S. Federal reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's keynote speech. The summit is overshadowed by political pressure over interest rates with policy makers divided over the forecast. Kansas City Fed chair Jeffrey Schmid tells CNBC a September rate cut is not set in stone. Wall Street is in the red with the S&P 500 suffering its longest losing streak since the start of the year as investor jitters over the A.I. outlook affect the world's biggest tech firms. Nvidia is set to cease production of its China-focused H20 chip as authorities cite security concerns and urge local tech firms to stop all purchases. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there are more tariff-deals being done, of the free trade type, but just not with the US and their mutually punitive style.In the US, jobless claims dipped last week, mainly on seasonal factors. There are now 2,016,000 people on these benefits, +5.3% more than the 1,914,000 on them this time last year.Sales of new single-family homes rose marginally in June from May's seven-month low to be well below what market expected. The number of unsold homes on the market rose to 511,000, the highest since October 2007 and now almost ten months of supply at the current sales pace.The July US S&P Markit factory PMI fell back into contraction which was very unexpected because a rise in the expansion was expected. However, this was masked by a strong rise in their service economy in July.The Kansas City Fed factory survey slipped back into contraction in July after its rare expansion in June. They reported increased factory activity but new order growth was weak and order backlogs fell sharply.In Canada, their advance estimate of retail sales suggests that sales increased +1.6% in June. That more than makes up for the -1.1% fall in May and is much better than the -0.3% fall expected.Meanwhile in Japan, the same S&P Global/Markit factory PMI unexpectedly contracted in July from June's 13-month high but minimal expansion. A small rise was expected.In India, they are starting to see rising international demand in their factory sector, and this pushed up their July factory PMI to a strong expansion.And India has signed a free trade deal with the UK, one touted to bring NZ$10 bln in mutual benefits.Also expected soon is a China-EU trade deal.In Europe, the eurozone PMI for July reported a further increase in business activity during the month, with the pace of expansion quickening to the fastest for almost a year amid a stabilisation of new orders. Output growth was at an 11 month high for them. Cost inflation is easing.Meanwhile, as expected the ECB rate review decision delivered no change. This effectively marks the end of its current easing cycle after eight cuts over the past year that brought borrowing costs to their lowest levels since November 2022. And don't forget, they remain in a tightening phase because they no longer reinvest maturing bonds issued during the pandemic emergency.In Australia, the S&P Global/Markit factory PMI expanded slightly faster in July, on the back of the sharpest overall rise in new business in over three years. This was despite export orders still contracting. The same report shows price pressures intensified, hinting at higher inflation in Australia in the coming months.And staying in Australia, research by the RBA shows that international students play a significant role in the Australian economy. They contribute to demand through their spending on goods and services and are an important source of labour for some Australian businesses. When there are large swings in international student numbers or when the economy has little spare capacity, this means that changing international student numbers can affect macroeconomic outcomes, particularly in sectors of the economy where supply cannot respond quickly. The rapid growth in international student numbers post-pandemic likely contributed to high inflation over this period, but was not a major driver. But they do push up rents.Container freight rates dropped another -3% last week to be -57% lower than year-ago levels, although to be fair the year-ago levels were unusually high. Outbound rates from China to the US are the weakest routes at present. But bulk cargo rates rose another +11% over the past week to be +13% higher than year-ago levelsThe UST 10yr yield is now at 4.41%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,369/oz, down -US$18 from yesterday.American oil prices are marginally firmer at just under US$65.50/bbl but the international Brent price is still at just on US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.4 USc and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we have dipped -10 bps to 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.8, up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,232 and up +1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Hoover Institution fellow Jon Hartley and former FDIC Vice Chair Thomas Hoenig discuss Tom's career as an economist, as Vice Chair of the FDIC, President of the Kansas City Fed, topics including the global financial crisis, banking regulation, Glass-Steagall, Too Big To Fail, moral hazard, lender of last resort powers, Basel III, the Dodd-Frank Act, capital requirements, deposit insurance after the Silicon Valley Bank regional banking crisis, and quantitative easing. Recorded on June 10, 2025. ABOUT THE SERIES: Each episode of Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century, a video podcast series and the official podcast of the Hoover Economic Policy Working Group, focuses on getting into the weeds of economics, finance, and public policy on important current topics through one-on-one interviews. Host Jon Hartley asks guests about their main ideas and contributions to academic research and policy. The podcast is titled after Milton Friedman‘s famous 1962 bestselling book Capitalism and Freedom, which after 60 years, remains prescient from its focus on various topics which are now at the forefront of economic debates, such as monetary policy and inflation, fiscal policy, occupational licensing, education vouchers, income share agreements, the distribution of income, and negative income taxes, among many other topics. For more information about the podcast, visit: https://www.hoover.org/podcast/capitalism-and-freedom?utm_source=podbean&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=cf21_podcast

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news its all about the US and the sharp weakening of the greenback. It is now at its lowest level since early 2022. And a key part of the reason is worries about the Trump attack on the Fed's independence.Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims have stayed elevated although they fell from the prior week to +227,000 which is marginally above the same week a year ago. There are now 1.87 mln people on these benefits, +124,000 more than the 1.75 mln a year ago.US Q1-2025 PCE inflation was revised higher overnight to 3.7% in updated data - and that is up from 2.4% on Q4-2025. Early impacts of tariff-taxes are starting to show through here. Real consumer spending was revised down to just +0.5% growth from the initial estimate of +1.2% and well below the Q4-2024 rise of +4.0%. These revisions don't paint a very good picture about how American consumers fared in early 2025. Final GDP 'growth' fell -0.5% in the quarter, the first decline in three years.But there was a good rise in durable goods orders in May, up +17.5% from the same month a year ago. But non-defense capital goods orders rose only +2.4% suggesting board rooms remain hesitant, and see the tariff-related order rush as nothing more than temporary.Certainly the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index doesn't point to any upturn. Nor does the latest regional Fed survey, this one from the Kansas City Fed.The May US trade balance wasn't great either, coming in with a worse deficit than expected at -US$93.7 bln with exports dipping and imports rising from April. From a year ago the result was little-different.Globally, policy imbalances cause distortions as you would expect, and in the short term at least, they can juice up trade activity despite their intentions.Elsewhere in Singapore, industrial production slipped in May to be 'only' +3.9% higher than year-ago levels. In April the gain was +5.6% so a clear easing, even if it wasn't as much as was anticipated.More generally, we will need to be careful talking about commodity prices when the US dollar is on a downslide. Almost everything is quoted in USD so rising prices now largely reflect that depreciation.Freight rates are falling after the relatively brief 'Iran crisis' hot war. And they too are quoted in USD so the falls will be magnified in other currencies. Container freight rates were down -9% last week from the week before to be -38% lower than year-ago levels - but a year-ago they were in their own Suez crisis stress. Bulk cargo rates are falling too.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, and down -4 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,334/oz, and up +US$12 from yesterday.American oil prices are unchanged from yesterday at just on US$65.50/bbl while the international Brent price is still just on US$68/bbl. Meanwhile Shell confirmed it isn't currently bidding for the underperforming BP, and that it is required to wait six month under UK law to take another look.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.7 USc, up +40 bps from yesterday and that's an eight-month high. However, against the Aussie we are -20 bps softer at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.1 and +10 bps firmer than yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$107,338 and up +0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

In this May 2025 edition of Trends in 10, Andy Campbell breaks down what equipment dealers and ag professionals need to know right now. From tightening lending conditions and rising operating loan volumes to volatile corn market projections and policy developments affecting ethanol, this episode covers it all. Andy digs into updated data from the Kansas City Fed and Purdue, reviews shifts in used equipment values (especially in the HHP tractor and combine categories), and explores why 2025 might signal a return to a “new normal” in farm capital investment.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news risk premiums keep on rising.But first, the OECD is reporting that the global expansion is leaking away, and quite quickly now. Economic activity rose by just +0.1% in the first quarter of 2025, significantly down from an +0.5% rise in the previous quarter. The US and Japan were the main drags in their data. And they say this is a departure from the higher and relatively stable growth rates recorded in the OECD area over the past two years.US initial jobless claims eased lower marginally, all accounted for by seasonal factors. There are now 1.79 mln people on these benefits, +103,000 more than at the same time last year.Existing home sales in the US fell -0.5% in April 2025, to their lowest in seven months and notably below what was expected. High mortgage rates are getting the blame.The first of the US PMI survey is out for May, the S&P/Markit one, and that reported output growth improved in the month, but prices spiked higher from the tariff impacts. And this was true for both the factory category, and their services category. It is better than a decline but in a broader historical perspective this isn't very impressive.Supporting that was the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index which not only recorded a decline in April, but March was revised lower too.Meanwhile, the Kansas City Fed factory survey for May slipped more negative again, even if hopes for the future remain positive.We don't usually report results of the US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), but today's 10 year event reveals the rising risk premiums investors are demanding, even as background inflation rises. Today's event delivered a median yield of 2.14% plus inflation, compared to the prior equivalent event a month ago of 1.86% plus inflation. These premiums are on the move wider, and are likely to widen substantially if Trumps 2025 Budget gets through Congress.North of the border, and in a bit of a surprise, Canadian producer prices slipped in April to be just +2.0% higher than a year ago. It turns out that many components for Canadian factories are sourced from the US and the falling US dollar has made them cheaper. That is certainly true for energy products, but true for many other components as well. Cheaper input costs will help Canadian factories push back against the tariff taxes their US customers have to pay.In Japan, they booked record high machinery orders in March, up +8.4% from a year ago, and far above what was anticipated. The outlook for the next three months looks good too. But we should note these gains are built on fast-rising domestic orders. Export order contributions were weak.Meanwhile, the Japanese May PMIs both slipped lower to be essentially flat (a marginal contraction for factories, a marginal expansion for services).In China, and in a sign of how broken their real estate development sector has become, local authorities are using bond funds to buy back unused land from struggling developers as a way to stop them completely collapsing.Singapore reported its change in economic activity for March and that came in at +3.9%, lower than the 5.0% growth in the December quarter but better than the expected +3.6%. But officials there downgraded their full 2025 expectations saying they will be lucky to get +2.0% growth this full calendar year - for all the obvious reasons.The Indian PMI for May stayed little-changed with a robust expansion. But they too are now noting rising price pressures.The flash Australia PMIs for May report a growth stall, for both their factory sector and their services sector. That was because they had their slowest growth in new orders in 2025 so far.Global container freight rates stayed low last week, up +2% from the prior week to be -28% lower than year-ago levels. And bulk freight rates rose +5.0% from a week ago but remain in the general low range they have been since early April.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.55%, and down -5 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,294/oz, and down -US$18 from yesterday.Oil prices are -50 USc softer today at just under US$61/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is just under US$64.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59 USc, and down -½c from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 92 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 52.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just under 67.4 and down a net -20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$111,542 and up +5.0% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/-2.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news this week we may start to see some hard data from the US and how the Trump insurgency is affecting the world's largest economy. Already sentiment surveys seem pretty negative.For us, the week ahead will be dominated by the March quarter financial system data releases from the RBNZ on Wednesday.Internationally, we will remain trapped watching the chaotic policy changes from Washington and trying to assess how they may impact us. Wall Street's earning season releases will also be a big influence, especially results from Big Tech. And the Americans will release their Q1-2025 GDP results, PCE inflation data, and their ISM PMI survey results. And at the end of the week we will get the April non-farm payroll results for the US labour market.The Bank of Japan is scheduled to review its monetary policy, but they are unlikely to make any changes in the fog of uncertainty around trade policies. Australia will release its Q1-2025 CPI data (expect a dip to 2.2%). China will release its official PMI survey results.Over the weekend, China said its March industrial profits were better than expected, but private sector profits slipped again. However, overall profits rose +0.8% from a year ago. Also better were foreign company profits which were up +2.8% on the same basis.China said they are adding another ¥500 bln in medium-term lending facility funding. This is the second month they have pushed out substantial additional liquidity in this way.And China says more than 120 million people have benefited from their old-for-new consumer goods trade-in subsidy program, driving sales of more than ¥720 bln.And the BS meter is on high after Trump said that “we're meeting with China” on tariffs, comments aimed at soothing jittery financial markets. But Chinese officials say no talks have taken place.In fact, China cancelled some large pork and soybean orders to US suppliers. American farmers not only have to bear the brunt of trade policy gone rogue, they are also battling rouge weather.Singapore said its industrial production rose in March, a bounce-back from a weak February result. But the recovery wasn't as strong as analysts had expected.Across the Pacific, US initial jobless claims fell last week to +209,700 and to the level expected. But seasonal effects suggested this reduction should have been larger. There are now 1.89 mln people on these benefits, still higher than year ago levels. This is despite Federal pressure on States to deny long term undocumented workers access to benefits.New durable goods orders jumped in March by +10.9%, the largest rise in seven months. Capital goods orders rose +24.1%. But non-defense, non-aircraft capital goods orders were only up +1.8%. This is probably why the March or April PMIs didn't note a general rise in factory orders.US existing-home sales fell -5.9% in March from February to be -2.4% lower than one year ago.Meanwhile the Kansas City Fed factory survey reported lower activity, higher costs, and unchanged order levels.Nationally, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index reported a small slip in March. This is consistent with the overall Fed Beige Book monitoring.And finally for the US, the UofM sentiment survey for April was -8.4% lower than for March, -32% weaker than a year ago. These are big drops. Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 5.0% in March, an unusually high level, to 6.5% this month, the highest reading since 1981.North of the border, Canada reported February retail sales and they slipped from January to be +2.1% ahead of year ago levels. This data is volume data, so a real increase.And its election day in Canada (tonight NZ time). There has been a notable surge in early voting. Official data for this was released a week ago, and that showed 7.3 million electors had voted in advance at that stage. This is a +25% increase from the 5.8 million electors who voted in advance in the last federal general election in 2021. They have 27.6 mln eligible voters this time.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, up +1 bp from this time Saturday.The price of gold will start today at US$3318/oz, and up +US$88 from Saturday.Oil prices have held from Saturday be still just over US$63/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$67/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.6 USc, down -10 bps from Saturday at this time. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 93.2 AUc. Against the euro we unchanged at 52.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just on 68 and unchanged from Thursday, but up +40 bps from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,238 and down -0.8% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been low at +/- 0.7%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news behind the tariff headlines that shows impacts of recent policy changes are starting to show up in some places, but not everywhere yet.US jobless claims fell slightly last week and about at the level seasonal factors would have expected. There are now 2.08 mln people on these benefits, about the same level as a year ago.That was the first of some marginally better data out overnight. The US merchandise trade balance pulled back in February from its record January deficit but it still came in far higher than what was expected. US exports stagnated but imports were +19% higher than year-ago levels.US wholesale and retail inventories rose with wholesale inventories up +1.2% from a year ago, and retail inventories up +4.6% on the same basis. Supply chain inefficiencies from the new tariff policies are starting to show up nowUS pending home sales came in -3.6% lower in February than year-ago levels, although the industry emphasised the +2% rise from January.The Kansas City Fed factory survey was a touch more positive than expected and better than in some other regions. But they too had lower new order levels, so this positivity probably won't last.In the Washington swamp, overshadowed perhaps by obvious lying by their unqualified Defence Secretary, the Administration has hit carmakers with new 25% tariffs. This will likely have a significant global impact on manufacturing as well as destabilising local supply chains. It is a move that may not play out as they want and will almost certainly mean US-produced cars will cost a lot more. GM's share price is down -7% today which accounts for most of the YTD drop. Ford is down -3.2%. Stellantis is down -4.3% today. The big local producers are expected by investors to do well out of this change.And they are not the only ones being hit. The recoiling of international tourists going to the US has seen substantial drops in the values of major US airlines. Delta is down -21% so far this year, United is down -22%. And American Airlines is down -35%. The whole industry is down -16% since the start of the year with those with extensive international routes worst hit. And this is despite global air travel being up about +10%.The final review of the Q4-2024 economic growth rate came in at +2.4%, which means that for all of 2024 they recorded an economic expansion of +2.5%. Both outcomes were marginally better than expected. 2025 has gotten off to a rocky start for them.In China, after the January -3.3% retreat, industrial profits were expected to be reported up +4.0% in February. But in fact they came in -0.3% lower again, so a market surprise. The SOE group saw profits rise +2.1%, public listed companies saw their profits down -2.0%, Hong Kong/Macao companies reported a +4.9% rise, and other private enterprises suffered a -9.0% drop.In Europe, the Norwegian central bank kept its key policy rate unchanged at 4.5% for the tenth consecutive meeting in its overnight March review, as widely expected.In Australia, household wealth was up +0.9% or +AU$144 bln in the December quarter, the lowest growth since September quarter of 2022. Year-on-year this was up +6.6% at a time inflation accounted for +2.4%. On that annual before-inflation basis their dwelling values only rose +4.4%. Their Super was up +9.3% however, and the value of their bank accounts were up +8.5%.Post their 2025/26 Budget, the Australian Treasury (AOFM) said it has raised its target bond fundraising from AU$100 bln in the coming year to AU$150 bln. Swap spreads then dived, indicating that demand for this debt paper could be hard to find. Expect Aussie Govt bond yields to rise sharply. It is widely expected that there will be an election date announcement later this morning, and most are expecting May 3 to be when the Aussies next go to the polls. Their recent Budget seems to have gone down well with the electorate so they want to capitalise on that.Globally, container freight rates fell -4% last week and are now -31% lower than year ago levels but +53% above pre-pandemic levels. Freight rates for bulk cargoes were essentially unchanged last week from the prior one, to be -19% lower than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.36%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just on US$3049/oz and up a net +US$32 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -50 USc from yesterday at just over US$69.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just over US$73.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.3 USc and down -10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also down -10 bps at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 53.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.9, and down -10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,905 very little-changed (+US$39) from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at +/- 1.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news trade and tariffs are in the headlines, but their impact of higher inflation and slower economic activity are just starting to be seen.US initial jobless claims rose sharply last week in seasonally adjusted terms, the largest rise in five month. In actual terms they were basically unchanged when seasonal factors would have normally brought a good reduction in claims. These initial claim levels are +10% high that year ago levels and there are now 2.17 mln people on these jobless benefits, also much higher than a year ago.US durable goods orders rose +3.1% in January from December, but there was a sharpish revision lower in the December data. The January level is +4.3% higher than year-ago levels. Non-defense capital goods were up +2.2% from a year ago.The second estimate of Q4-2024 GDP came in unchanged from the first at +2.3% growth. It would have been more but they noticed higher inflation in the period which trimmed the rising nominal expansion in the period.Pending home sales in the United States fell -5.2% in January from a year ago, following a -5% drop in December.And today's downbeat American economic data releases extended to the Kansas City Fed factory survey which fell in February, contracting by its most in five months.The US Administration said China will be hit with a new 10% tariff, the latest salvo in the US president's steadily escalating trade fights. That is on top of the earlier 10% already in place. The President also said he intended to move forward with a threatened 25% tax on imports from Canada and Mexico, which is set to come into effect on 4 March.So it is little wonder that inflation expectations are rising among Americans. Tariffs are a tax on yourself, and higher prices either result from more expensive imported goods, or they allow local producers to face much less price competition so those prices rise too. It will be impossible for the US Fed to ignore, and bond markets aren't either.But north of the border, Canada said weekly earnings are rising faster there. They rose +5.8% in December from a year ago in data released overnight, the fastest pace since March 2021.And staying in Canada, the reaction to the endless Trump insults are generating a "Buy Canada, Bye America" surge, and now apps are sprouting up enabling such choices right in shop and supermarket aisles. Apparently there are export markets for such services, especially in Europe.The tracking of consumer and business sentiment in the EU shows it is either holding or moving up in January. Now almost as may are positive as negative, which is the best they have had in almost three years, and slightly better than expected.With all the US tariff news, it will be no surprise to learn that container freight rates fell another -6% last week, taking them -30% lower than year-ago levels, and now only +85% higher than pre-pandemic levels. Usage of the Suez Canal is normalising now too. But bulk cargo rates shot up +32% last week from the week before to be -40% lower than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.29%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just under US$2875/oz and down -US$35 from yesterday.Oil prices are up +US$1 at on US$70/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now under US$74/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.5 USc and down -60 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 54.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 66.5, and down a net -40 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$84,968 and -2.3% from this time yesterday. It is currently very much in a bear phase with prices only rising when there is minor volume, but falling sharply when there is high volume. Sellers are choosing their timing, and there are a lot of them. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.8%. You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Well, we have a new US Presidential Administration with a very different economic strategy than its predecessor. The president has already started vocally demanding the Federal Reserve be more aggressive in lowering interest rates. And he's appointed a new head, Scott Bessent, at the US Treasury, replacing Janet Yellen. What should we expect from the policies this Administration intends to pursue? Will Jerome Powell march to the President's demands? Or will he flex to assert the Fed's independence? And where does inflation figure into all of this? For a true expert's informed perspective on these very important questions, we have the great privilege today of speaking with Dr Thomas Hoenig, former CEO of the Kansas City Fed, former voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, a former director of the FDIC, and now a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center. BUY YOUR TICKET ATTHE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are living in a new world of imposed distortions. Ethical politics or business dealing is out the window. Trust is being replaced by force. It is hard to see how this will end well. After all, business relies on trust, honesty and integrity. Without it, why would you make a deal? The result can only be higher risk premiums.First, the annual Davos meetings are underway, and today they were dominated by US Presidential bluster where we claimed he would force interest rates down, force the oil price down, and force other countries to "put America First". He also threatened any country who challenged the American FANGs with taxes on their activities in their own countries. Billionaires don't see the need to pay taxes - their fair share, or any share - to anyone.US jobless claims fell back sharply from last week's big seasonal increase. But the fall was not as much as seasonal factors would have anticipated. On a seasonally-adjusted basis they rose. There are now 2.24 mln people on these benefits, which is actually the highest since the last Trump Administration. (Interestingly, the new US-DOL leadership 'hid' this data, shifting it to a 'new' location.)In the regions, the December factory survey from the Kansas City Fed revealed a further contraction. New order levels were low, and despite improved manager sentiment, they actually don't expect new order levels to rise much.In Canada, retail sales rose much more than expected in December, their best December rise since 2019, and the biggest any-month gain since May.Japan said its exports rose +2.8% in December from a year ago, meaning that eleven of the past twelve months recorded export growth. Only nine of the past twelve recorded import growth.And all eyes turn to the Bank of Japan and their expected +25 bps rate hike, later today.A rise in South Korean business sentiment in January comes after authorities there reported a quite soft Q4-2024 GDP growth outcome.Singapore's CPI inflation was up +1.6% in December, the same as November and slightly more than the +1.5% expected.Taiwanese retail sales rose +2.9% in December with a modest performance. But Taiwanese industrial production surged +20% in December from the same month a year ago which itself wasn't especially soft.In China, they are directing insurers to buy equities, a move designed to put a floor under the pressure on those markets.After 'peaking' in October at their long-run average, the EU consumer sentiment survey has slipped to be more net-negative since. But the latest January 2025 survey essentially held the December level to be almost 2 percentage points better than year-ago levels.In Turkey, their central bank claimed overnight that inflation there is under control at 44% and heading in the right direction. So it cut 2.5% from its policy interest rate taking that benchmark down to 45%.Driven by rates out of China, container shipping freight rates fell a sharpish -11% last week, although they are still 140% higher than pre-pandemic levels. The Baltic Dry index for bulk cargoes fell a sharp -16% in the past week, now at the very lower end of its long-run average level since 1969.The UST 10yr yield is up at 4.65% with a +4 bps rise from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$2757/oz and down -US$1 from yesterday.Oil prices are down down -US$1 at just over US$75.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now under US$78.50.The Kiwi dollar is now on 56.8 USc and up +20 bps from this time yesterday and more than a one month high. Against the Aussie we basically unchanged at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 54.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 67.2 and also essentially unchanged from yesterday. A fall against the Yen offset the USD rise.The bitcoin price starts today at US$106,275 and up +2.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.8%.Monday is the Auckland Anniversary holiday, and Australia Day, so the newsflow will be light. But we will have continuing regular service on Monday.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Tuesday – Monday is a public holiday in much of New Zealand.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of deliberate chaos being constructed in Washington DC with a much higher prospect of a US Federal Government shutdown likely. Authorised funding expires later today / Friday, US time. Financial risks are sharply elevated today, and markets are pricing these in.Elsewhere, US jobless claims fell sharply last week and by more than can be accounted for by seasonal factors. There are now a bit less than 1.9 mln people on these benefits.The PhillyFed survey of factories in America's traditional rust belt turned very negative, the worst result since April 2023. Soft demand was behind this shift. Optimism about the future took a hit too.The Kansas City Fed's equivalent survey in its region wasn't so negative, but it wasn't positive either. Optimism was a bit better there however.American existing home sales in November rose, but to be fair it is still stuck in the very low range it has had post-pandemic which is even lower than the post-GFC range, and back to levels first seen in 1995. So the November rise in that perspective is kind of irrelevant, no matter what the industry peak body says.The US Conference Board leading index tracking rose in November. Higher building permits, high equity prices, rising average hours worked in manufacturing, and fewer initial jobless claims boosted the November result. But the December result will no doubt take a hit from the current Washington shenanigans.The final estimate for US Q3-2024 GDP raised the expansion to +3.1% and extending the good run they have had since mid-2022. The US economy delivered US$29.4 tln of economic activity in the past year, with the expansion of +US$1.4 tln and the most ever. And that describes what is at risk from bad policy.Elsewhere there were many central bank rate reviews.In Japan, the Bank of Japan held its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, keeping it at the highest level since 2008. That was what financial markets expected. But the vote was split 8-1, with one board member wanting a +25 bps increase. Essentially they are waiting to see how destabilising the incoming American Administration will be. But the bank boss seems to have turned dovish in the circumstances, and that turn moved markets.In Taiwan, they kept their policy rate unchanged at 2%In the Philippines, they cut their rate by -25 bps to 5.75%.In Sweden, they cut by -25 bps to 2.5%.In Norway, they held at 4.5%.In England, they held unchanged at 4.75% with a split 6:3 vote with the dissenters wanting a cut. This is a pause as inflation starts to rise there again.In something of a surprise, Australian inflation expectations rose to 4.2% in December, ending their encouraging falls that started in September. It is not a result either the RBA or the Australian Treasury would have wanted.Container freight rates rose +8% last week but to be fair that was only because of a +26% rise in teh China-to-USWC route and a +17% rise in Chin-to-New York as traders raced to get ahead of the impending tariff threat. Other routes saw small declines. Bulk cargo rates fell another -7% last week to be less than half what they were a year ago and back to levels last seen in July 2023.Many mineral commodities are retreating in price in expectation 2025 will be tough, with copper down -2%.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.59%, up a very sharp +19 bps from this time yesterday as markets digested the Fed's move and the deliberate mess being created by the incoming President.The price of gold will start today at US$2592/oz and down -US$42 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -US$2.50 to be just on US$69.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$73.The Kiwi dollar starts today just on 56.5 USc and down -60 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps to 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps to 54.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.1 to be down another -25 bps from yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$100,994 and down -3.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at +/- 3.1%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news about separate corruption cases involving Gautam Adani, and Matt Gaetz.But first today, the US labour market is maintaining its strength, despite strikes and tropical hurricanes. Last week only +213,000 people filed for initial jobless claims, well below the prior week, below what seasonal factors would have brought, and below the same week last year. This was a seven month low. Continuing claims inched up the prior week to 1.67 mln but that was about the same level as last year.Those job gains are helping their housing market. Existing home sales rose in October by +3.5% from the previous month to an annualised rate of just under 4 mln. While this level is pretty tame for them, it is off the September low which had the distinction of being a q14 year low. Industry insiders are hoping October's rise signals a trend turnaround. But it is hard to see with mass layoffs in the US Federal workforce imminent, it might be a vain hope.In contrast to the big jump in the New York region, the Philly Fed's factory survey dipped in November, but new order levels remained positive, and sentiment ahead did too. It was similar in the same report by the Kansas City Fed, where firms expect increases in production, new orders, and employment in the next six months.In Canada, producer prices turned up in October after easing in the prior month, to continue a trend that started in April. But the rises are not inflationary.In India, the depth and pervasiveness of corruption is on display in a case that is gripping the country. The BSE fell -0.5% on the news. And PM Modi is annoyed by the revelations as Adani has been important in his rise. In New York, Indian billionaire Gautam Adani was indicted on bribery charges in a US federal court yesterday, with prosecutors alleging the 62-year-old tycoon and other Indian executives promised more than US$250 mln to Indian government officials to win contracts. Bribery is also at the heart of a Swiss case against the same people. And Indian steel makers have faced similar allegations. But given the pervasiveness of corruption in India at the top level, there is probably little that will change there, especially as the BJP controls their government. The Americans are prosecuting because Adani did not disclose the bribes in documentation for fundraising in US markets, and it was considered to be a material factor for the investments.Ending a long series of improvement, the EU consumer sentiment survey reported a fall to a more negative result in November. Despite this, data out for EU car sales was quite positive, putting the August and September say behind it and returning to levels that have been 'normal' since mid-2022.In Turkey, they reviewed their policy rate and held it at 50%. Turkey has inflation running at 48%.In South Africa, they also reviewed theirs and cut it by -25 bps to 7.75%. South Africa has inflation running at 2.8% and falling quickly now. It is back within its target range.Container shipping freight rates were little-changed last week. Bulk cargo rates spiked during the week, but ended up basically unchanged from last week.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.42% and up +1 bp from yesterday at this time. Wall Street started its Thursday little-changed, but then rose +0.7% on the S&P500 and rising when Matt Gaetz said he won't be the US Attorney General.The price of gold will start today at US$2649/oz and up another +US$26 from this time yesterday.China has found new gold reserves in central Hunan province, state outlet Xinhua News reported yesterday. China is the world's largest gold producer, accounting for around 10% of global outputOil prices are again little-changed, up just +50 USc to just over US$69.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$73.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.6 USc and down -10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are -40 bps lower at 90 AUc. Against the euro we unchanged at 55.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 68.3, and down -20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$97,247 and up +3.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.7%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Former Kansas City Fed President Esther George discusses how the US Presidential Election outcome will affect Fed policy going forward. She speaks with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news we need to get ready for a +3o future and start adapting for it.But first, initial jobless claims in the US came in at just 203,000 last week, much lower than expected. There are now 1.635 mln on these benefits. We are about a week away from getting the US non-farm payrolls report and current estimates are that it expanded just +140,000 in October. That may be conservative.But the Chicago Fed's monitoring of their National Activity Index reveals a slip in September.But in October that may have picked up, and substantially. The S&P/Markit US factory PMI contracted its least in three months, and their services PMI is still expanding at a good pace and has been for six months now. This helps explain why employment has been stronger than expected for some time.The other encouraging feature of these PMI reports is that inflation pressures seem absent now.The Kansas City Fed's regional factory survey showed these trends; factory activity barely contracting now which was a sharp improvement from September. And their services sector was expanding still.Although firms in both regional and national surveys are increasingly optimistic about the future, they seem to be ignoring - or looking past - the damage the extended Boeing strike will cause. More here.Also encouraging for them is that American new home sales were on the rise in September, rising to a 738,000 annual rate, its highest since the outlier May 2023 spike. The September level is +6.3% higher than a year ago. This time, new home sales seems to be on a rising trend.In Japan their flash October PMI report shows a contraction too in their factory sector, but also only a minor one. But output and new order levels slipped at a slightly faster rate. Their services sector isn't expanding either according to this same report, a slip from the prior month. Apparently Japanese businesses are struggling to adapt to their modest inflation pressures.Korea reported its Q3-2024 GDP yesterday, revealing a +1.5% growth rate, lower than the +2% expected at the +2.3% in Q2-2024.India's October PMIs stayed strongly expansionary. New order levels were high. But there are signs of serious overheating, and inflation in India is a building concernThere is no overheating in the EU with everything ticking lower in October. But at least their service sector is still expanding.In Australia, their October PMI survey reveals that their factory sector is at a 53 month low with a moderate contraction. Their services sector however is holding its own - just.An updated UN report shows that we have essentially run out of time to cut greenhouse gas emissions. We are on track for a +3% rise in global temperatures and that will radically change how the planet operates, most of it not good. The difference between rhetoric and action is stark. China (+5.2% rise in emissions) and India (+6.1%) are overwhelming the US (-1.4%) and EU (-7.5%) restraint. Together China and India released 20,140 MtCO2e of greenhouse gas, 38% of the global total. Together the US and the EU released 9,200 MtCO2e or 17%. Neither China nor India are likely to heed the evidence, and if Trump is elected, the US will likely switch sides - so it will now be all up to how we adapt. Fortunately, New Zealand is in a relatively good position (or less-bad position).Container freight rates fell another -4% last week but are still +118% higher than the 2019 pre-pandemic average. Again it was outbound China routes that fell but there was also a slip in rates from the US to China. Bulk cargo rates fell a sharper -12.5% last week, to be -28% lower than a year ago and back to pre-pandemic levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.19% and down -6 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$2732/oz and up +US$12 from yesterday.Oil prices are -50 USc softer at just on US$70/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$74/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 60.1 USc and up +10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also up +10 bps at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 55.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.9, and down -10 bps from yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$67,558 and up +2.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.1%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Former Kansas City Fed President Esther George weighed in on the labor market and Fed rate strategy. George spoke to Bloomberg Television's Sonali Basak, Matt Miller, and Katie Greifeld at the Citadel Securities Global Macro Conference in New York Wednesday.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead China is trying to get back on track to keep up with the US economically.First in the US, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell again last week and by more than expected to 181,000. In fact there has been a consistent reduction each week since the end of July. There are now only 1.63 mln people on these benefits.American durable goods orders came in better than expected too in August. After an unexpected jump in July, they were expected to fall back sharpish. They did but not by anything like what was expected. In actual terms they rose +7.5% from July to be level-pegging with a year ago. The embedded year-on-year negative has now been extinguished. Capital good orders rose in August to be +2.5% higher than a year ago. This too is a bright recovery.There were no surprises in the US Q2 final GDP result, with their economic activity growing +3.0% 'real' and almost double the +1.6% expansion in Q1. For the full year to June, there was US$29 tln in economic activity recorded, a fast pace of expansion for the world's largest economy. By some estimates, that +3% pace has continued into Q3.It is not all good, or even even. The Kansas City Fed's factory survey retreated in its September review, even if expectations for future activity stayed positive.Again, there was good support for today's US Treasury 7 year bond auction. It went for a median yield of 3.61%, down from 3.71% at the equivalent event a month ago. And that is despite secondary benchmark yields rising slightly today.And as expected, the Swiss National Bank cut its key policy rate by -25 bps to 1% at their overnight meeting, a third consecutive reduction and pushing borrowing costs to the lowest since early 2023.Aussie job vacancies continue to fall. There were 330,000 job vacancies in August, down by 18,000 from May, and well down from the peak of 473,000 in May 2022. Their labour market stats shows there were 623,200 unemployed people in the same month, of which 418,500 were supposedly looking for full-time work.The OECD said the global economy is turning the corner as growth remained resilient through the first half of 2024, with declining inflation, though significant risks remain, according to the OECD's latest Interim Economic Outlook. With robust growth in trade, improvements in real incomes and a more accommodative monetary policy in many economies, the Outlook projects global growth persevering at 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, after 3.1% in 2023. Global inflation is projected to be back to central bank targets in most G20 economies by the end of 2025. Headline inflation in the G20 economies is projected to ease to 5.4% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025, down from 6.1% in 2023, with core inflation in the G20 advanced economies easing to 2.7% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025.Container freight rates fell -7% last week from the prior week, to be +160% higher than the pre-pandemic levels and back to levels we last saw at the start of 2024. All the latest reductions were on routes outbound from China. Bulk cargo rates were up +6.6% last week to be +25% higher than a year ago.In China, Beijing has asked its four top state-owned banks to cover for it with lending that may not make a lot of commercial sense. Now Bloomberg is reporting that they are moving to bolster the capital in these key institutions. The amount of added capital required is enormous.And we are starting to see some movement in some commodity prices, responding to the Chinese stimulus program. For example the copper price is back above US$10,000/tonne which is approaching the upper limits of where it has been since its first rise in 2011. Iron ore or rebar steel aren't moving, but zinc is.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 3.79% and unchanged from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$2670/oz and up +US$9 from yesterday to yet another new all-time high.Oil prices have fallen another -US$2 to US$67.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just on US$71.50/bbl. The Saudis seem to have surrendered the idea that production cutbacks will juice the price in their favour. They are shifting to pump more and regain market share.The Kiwi dollar starts today in a yoyo pattern at 63.3 USc and back up +60 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at 56.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 70.6, and back up +30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$65,167 and up +3.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Last week in his much-anticipated speech at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced the "time has come for policy to adjust". World markets now have a 100% probability expectation that the Federal Funds Rate will be cut at the upcoming September meeting. In the words of Nick Timiraos, chief economist for the Wall Street Journal and suspected media mouthpiece for the Federal Reserve, "The Powell pivot is complete". Is that indeed the case? And if so, what should we expect from here from the speed and depth of rate cuts? What will the expected impacts be on the economy? And which ones will be felt soon, and which perhaps not for quarters from now? And lastly, is this the correct policy move the Fed should be pursuing? For a true expert's informed perspective on these very important questions, we have the great privilege today of speaking with Dr Thomas Hoenig, former CEO of the Kansas City Fed, former voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, a former director of the FDIC, and now a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center. Follow Dr Hoenig at https://www.discoursemagazine.com/ or https://www.finregrag.com/ WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news financial markets in the US have the jitters ahead of a key speech by Fed boss Powell tomorrow at the Jackson Hole central bank shindig. Equities fell, bond yields rose, and the USD firmed and expectations grew Powell will make the case for only a gradual pace of rate cuts.Meanwhile, US jobless claims actually fell last week and by about what was expected. But the seasonally-adjusted level rose and that wasn't expected and that grabbed the headlines in the absence of any other major economic news. There are now 1.86 mln people on these benefits, also a fall.The 'flash' US PMIs from S&P/Markit shows their factory sector contracting slightly but their services sector expanding faster. New order levels are problem for their manufacturing sector. But service sector activity grew at a solid and increased rate in August, and because that sector is far larger than the factory sector, that points to robust GDP growth in excess of 2% annualised in the third quarter, which should help allay near-term recession fears.The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index for July basically confirmed the manufacturing slowdown.But the Kansas City Fed factory survey held on with an improvement in August, showing there are some regions still improving in their manufacturing sector.Also improving were the July existing home sales which rose modestly at about the expected level and that ended a four month retreat. But despite that, the sales volume levels essentially remained at the low levels they have had since early 2023. And on a broader perspective, sales volumes at this level were first achieved in the mid-1970s, and were the levels in the GFC. So July's rise is a very low bar.In Canada (and the US), all eyes are on a stoppage in their key rail network due to industrial action. It is a lockout, and it will have many spillover impacts in both countries.In India, the expansion rolls on for both their factory and services sectors in an impressive way, with them shrugging off capacity issues in their factory sector with a notable rise in job creation. 'Growth' is creating many more employment opportunities.In Japan, although it rose, its August factory PMI is still contracting, slightly. On the other had Japan's service sector is expanding at a good rate. That is the seventh consecutive expansion in their services sector.In China, Reuters is reporting that regulators there will likely impose a six-month business suspension on a big part of PwC's auditing unit in the mainland as a penalty for its work on troubled property developer Evergrande.In Europe, business activity rose at faster pace in August, but the rate of new order intake continued to ease. The uptick in business activity is largely due to the Paris Olympics however, so that probably won't last.In Australia, their August PMI's sort of mirrors Japan but at a slightly lower level. The factory PMI is up but still contracting. Their services PMI is expanding although only at a modest rate.Global container freight rates slipped another -2% is a continuation of the minor moves down from the extreme July heights, with the basic pressures unresolved. These rates are still almost three times higher than pre-pandemic and pre-canal-pressure levels. There is no real sign of a proper normalising. Bulk freight rates rose slightly last week.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 3.86% and up +8 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today down -US$27 from yesterday at US$2482/oz.Oil prices are recovered yesterday's US$1.50 drop, now back at US$73/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$77/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today down -30 bps from yesterday at 61.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps too at 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 55.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69.4 and little-changed.The bitcoin price starts today at US$60,305 and up +0.7% from this time yesterday in its recent yoyo pattern. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.6%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

 Former Kansas City Fed Governor Esther George  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the rise of the US economy and the slowdown in China that Beijing can't seem to arrest is twisting a vast cast of supporting economies and their currencies. The NZD and AUD are devaluing faster now.First up today, the giant American economy grew much more than expected as reported by their 'advance' Q2-2024 release. It was up +2.8% when +2.0% rise was expected after the Q1-2024 +1.4% expansion. This was driven by strong consumer spending which broadly confirms the weekly retail impetus that we track. Consumers are acting 'positively'. Growth of +2.8% is 'moderate' in the grand scheme of things - until you realise that it is a +US$360 bln (nominal) expansion from Q1, almost +US1.6 tln from the same period a year ago. Nowhere else has expanded like that (and more than double China's +US$784 bln equivalent expansion). The American economy had economic activity of US$28.6 tln in the past year.Prices (PCE) were up +2.6% in Q2, a lesser rise than the +3.4% rise in Q1. Getting there, but not there yet.Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims fell more than expected last week at 225,000 from the 281,000 of the prior week. These levels are nearly back to where they were a year ago. There are now 1.9 mln workers on these benefits, a tiny slice of their 364 mln workforce.But new orders for durable goods slumped -6.6% in June from May, after four consecutive monthly increases and missing market expectations of a +0.3% rise. Transportation equipment drove the decrease. From a year ago, these durable goods orders were down a startling -11%. Orders for capital goods were worse, down -27% on the year-ago basis. (However, excluding aircraft, there was little change.)The next July regional factory survey is from the Kansas City Fed, and they reported little-change from June. Basically it mirrors the national durable goods order data.Earlier today there was a well-supported UST 7yr bond auction and that brought a 4.11% median yield. That is slightly lower than the 4.22% yield at the prior equivalent event a month ago.China's central bank unexpectedly cut the rate at which it lends to financial institutions, the first such cut in nearly a year. It lowered the one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate to 2.3%, from 2.5%. The bank issued ¥200 bln in loans to banks at this rate.This rate cut is part of Beijing's attempts to spur a sluggish economic growth. This was just a part of actions taken yesterday. It is also expanding a subsidy program to get more people buying cars and consumer electronics. This will cost them ¥300 bln, paid for out of their issue of ultralong special treasury bonds. The subsidies for those trading in their passenger cars for new energy vehicles will double to ¥20,000, compared to the ¥10,000 subsidy announced in April. Trade-ins for petrol vehicles will rise to ¥15,000 from ¥7,000 per vehicle.Global container shipping rates stayed very high last week, but they did slip a small -2% from the week before and are just off their peak. That makes them +268% higher than a year ago. There seems no relief in sight yet. Bulk cargo rates were little-changed last week to be +24% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.27% and down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down a very sharp -US$60 from yesterday at US$2352/oz. That is down -2.5% on the day.Oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just over US$78/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just on US$81.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today weaker, down another -40 bps at just under 59 USc. That is a -3.4% devaluation since the start of the month. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90 AUc. Against the euro we are down a full -½ at 54.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68 and down -40 bps from yesterday and that is near a two year low.The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,827 and down -2.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, also at +/- 2.6%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news China seems to be making a play to avoided as an investment destination.But first, initial US jobless claims fell to just +192,000 last week when a small increase was anticipated. Still no labour market stress signals here. The total number of people on these benefits fell below 1.7 mln, the lowest level of the year. The insured unemployment rate remains at a very low 1.1%.The globally benchmarked S&P Global/Markit factory PMI for the US rose (to 50.9) in May from its steady state in April although it did not get its boost from new orders this time. But new order growth was a feature of their May services PMI (54.8) with an impressive display and a two year high.This May strength is yet to show up in the Chicago Fed's National activity Index which slipped slightly in April. But it is showing up in the Kansas City Fed's factory survey which recorded a good recovery.It definitely did not show up in the April new home sales data, which in the month ran at almost -8% lower than the year-ago level. The retreat has been gradual each month in that period, but relentless.Perhaps we should note that there was another case reported where bird flu in US dairy cows has jumped to a human. Officials still say the risk is low.The internationally-benchmarked May S&P Global (Markit) PMI for Japan delivered its fastest expansion in nine months. Their previously shrinking factory sector rose to a minor expansion (50.5) while their service sector expansion slipped slightly (53.6).India's PMI data continued its strong run in May, for both the factory and services sector. A feature is the growing rise in exports, presumably benefiting from the China de-risking trend.Taiwanese industrial production was up more than +14% from a year ago in April. That is partly a reflection of weakness a year ago but for the past three months the month-on-month rises have been impressive and March was notably revised higher. Their retail sales growth was more modest however although its base was more solid. All this comes before the full-court pressure the PLA is currently applying to the island nation, a crude show of force in the Russian style.Beijing's claim that they are 'prioritising business reforms' rings hollow in light of the Taiwan pressure.In Europe, their economic recovery gained momentum in May, according to provisional PMI survey data. Faster increases in business activity, new orders and employment were all recorded in the month, while business confidence hit a 27-month high. This recovery is being led by Germany. Meanwhile, rates of inflation of both input costs and output prices softened from April, but remained above pre-pandemic averages in each case.Australian inflation expectations, as monitored in a respected Melbourne Institute survey, eased to 4.1% for the year ahead, down from 4.6% last month. The last time they measured actual inflation, it came in at 3.5% in March.The internationally-benchmarked May S&P Global (Markit) PMI for Australia delivered another small contraction in the factory sector (49.6) but a good expansion in the service sector (53.1). But both levels were lower than March and April. New orders retreated in both sectors, but to be fair the reductions were slight and the least in the past three months.The tighter global security situation has seen the container freight rates leap again, up +16% in the week to their highest in at least a year. The jump is all about outbound cargoes from China which emphasises the risks of trade from there. The Taiwan situation will make it even worse next week. So far, bulk cargo rates haven't moved much in the past week.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.48% and up +5 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today still in a sharp down-trend, down another -US$51 at US$2336/oz. That is now down -US$119 from its all-time high on May 20, 2024, a -4.8% retreat.Oil prices are down another -US$1 at US$76.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is down a bit less to under US$81/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today unchanged from yesterday at just on 61 USc. Against the Aussie we are firmer, up +¼c at 92.3 AUc and a two-month high. Against the euro we are firmish at 56.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 70.4, and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$67,776 and down -3.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just on +/- 1.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

The St. Louis Fed's Matuschka Lindo Briggs, senior vice president and regional executive of the Little Rock Branch, and Chad Wilkerson, senior vice president and Oklahoma City Branch executive for the Kansas City Fed, discuss their insights on the Arkansas and Oklahoma regional economies.

The Federal Reserve is one of, if not the most, significant institutions in the world given the global impact of its policy decisions. It influences the price of nearly everything, as well as the availability of jobs, the stability of our banking system, and the purchasing power of our money. When the Fed Chair speaks, the entire world stops to listen. But the average person has a poor understanding of how this colossally important entity operates or even why it exists. And after a series of asset price bubbles -- which some argue we're in another one now -- a chorus skeptical of the Fed's actions has emerged. So today we're doing our best to shine as bright a light as possible on the Fed: how & why it operates, the good & as well as the shortcomings of its actions to date, what direction its policies are likely to take from here, and how all of this impacts the households of regular people like you and me We have the great privilege of speaking today with Thomas Hoenig, former CEO of the Kansas City Fed, former voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, a former director of the FDIC, and now a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center. Follow Dr. Hoenig at https://substack.com/profile/131926993-thomas-hoenig WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #federalreserve #inflation #money

The former Kansas City Fed president talks about the persistence of inflation, when the central bank is likely to lower interest rates, how worried she is about office CRE, the lessons from the failures of three regional banks last year, whether she supports a central bank digital currency, and the future of community banks.

Agricultural credit conditions in the Kansas City Fed's Tenth District softened during the third quarter of 2023.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At Jackson Hole, the Kansas City Fed's annual gathering for economists and central bankers, there's a lot of focus on the short-term path of monetary policy. But, of course, the Economic Symposium is supposed to be about long-term policy frameworks. And central bankers aren't just responsible for changing benchmark interest rates — they are also financial regulators. On this episode, we speak with Hyun Song Shin, economic advisor and head of research at the Bank for International Settlements, about where he sees risks lurking in the financial system now. We discuss the shift from bank lending to bond-based borrowing, and what it means for inflation now. We talk about how even safe assets like US Treasuries can become sources of stress, such as in March 2020, the gilt crisis of last year, and most recently, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. We also talk about how higher interest rates are supposed to bring down inflation, but might not be doing that much currently, as well as the limits of central banking.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending August 26th, 2023… tough talk on inflation from the Fed Chief, when and why we might see a surge in home prices, and what Texas is doing to manage a booming economy north of Dallas.   We begin with economic news from this past week and comments from Fed Chief Jerome Powell. He delivered the keynote address at the Kansas City Fed's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. He reiterated previous sentiments about making progress on inflation, but says it's still too high and the central bank plans to “keep at it until the job is done.” He said: “We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective” – which is 2%...    ...The North Texas area is becoming a global technology hub as semiconductor companies move into the area. That's creating tens of thousands of jobs, and with all those jobs, a surge in housing demand. We are capitalizing on this opportunity at RealWealth with a North Dallas Rental Fund for accredited investors. You can find out more about this fund at growdevelopments.com.   That's it for today. You can listen to past episodes and check for links to our news sources at newsforinvestors.com. You can also sign up for a free RealWealth membership while you are there to learn more about how and where to invest in real estate. And please remember to subscribe to this podcast, and leave a review!   Thanks for listening! Kathy Fettke   Follow Kathy on Instagram at: https://www.instagram.com/kathyfettke/ Purchase Kathy's audiobook on Audible at: https://tinyurl.com/retirerichaudible   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-unsure-of-the-need-to-tighten-further-b43a9d18?mod=federal-reserve   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-drop-to-3-week-low-of-230-000-still-no-sign-of-rising-u-s-layoffs-1f1411f6?mod=economic-report   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-home-sales-fall-in-july-as-rates-rise-and-listings-fall-33b79a54?mod=economic-report   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-new-homes-sales-rise-4-4-in-july-533ab184?mod=economic-report   5 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   6 - https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/housing-market-outlook-recession-home-prices-mortgage-rates-fannie-mae-2023-8   7 - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/house-prices-wont-fall-ndash-195516944.html   8 - https://www.rentcafe.com/blog/rental-market/market-snapshots/new-apartment-construction/ 9 - https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2023/08/18/txdot-greg-abbott-115-billion.html

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave a very middle of the road speech last week at the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole symposium. The leader of the central bank acknowledged that tightening monetary policy has had its desired impact on inflation, but also warned that inflation may come back, thus warranting further interest rate increases. He neither suggested nor refuted that another interest rate hike would be needed, and the Fed will continue to monitor pertinent economic data before making their next policy decision in a few weeks. Two key data points they will be monitoring will be the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) and second quarter Gross Domestic Product, both of which will be released this week. The PCE index is the Fed's preferred inflation indicator and as of June measured 3.0% growth on an annual basis, just at the top end of the Fed's ideal range.Apartment performance continues to decline modestly at the national level. Rents are falling on a week-over-week basis, and leading indicators including traffic and leasing are either flat or negative from week to week. Interestingly occupancy has increased by the smallest of margins in each of the past two weeks, however the slight growth is not enough to indicate a longer-term trend in my opinion. With roughly four months remaining in 2023, key operating metrics will likely continue to soften, but the overall housing shortage and the increasing cost of home ownership will protect our industry from any major declines. Market-by-market weakness will be apparent as new supply is delivered and absorbed.Explore our Research webpage for more insights and resources: https://bit.ly/RadixResearch.

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.Economists will be focused more on the qualitative information coming out this week than the quantitative data being released. The Kansas City Fed hosts its annual symposium in Jackson Hole, and Chair Jerome Powell will be delivering the keynote address on Friday. Ahead of the meeting, three other Fed governors are expected to give speeches on Tuesday. While it is unlikely the leaders of the Fed will share explicit information regarding upcoming monetary policy changes, their tone and language should provide insight into additional rate hikes or the end of monetary tightening. The 10-year treasury rate, which typically follows the market's view of intermediate to long-term inflation, has been rising rapidly in the past few weeks. It currently sits at its highest yield since 2007. The multifamily market continued its moderation last week. Net effective rent fell 10 basis points last week, the second consecutive week of rent declines at the national level. This marks the first back-to-back NER drop since last December. Occupancy increased ever so slightly, rising one basis point last week. Nationwide occupancy remains almost a full percentage point below its level from this time last year. Traffic and leasing remain stable as the third quarter progresses.  Explore our Research webpage for more insights and resources: https://bit.ly/RadixResearch.

For the first time, credit card debt in the U.S. has hit $1 trillion. The record was hit thanks to a combination of inflation, high interest rates and Gen Z confidence. Plus, the Biden administration is expected to restrict U.S. firms from investing in certain kinds of China-based tech. We’ll also discuss diversity at a major upcoming economic conference. Update (8/9/23): The story about diversifying the Kansas City Fed's Economic Policy Symposium has been updated to accurately reflect Boston Fed President Susan Collins’ involvement. For more information, check out the story on marketplace.org.

For the first time, credit card debt in the U.S. has hit $1 trillion. The record was hit thanks to a combination of inflation, high interest rates and Gen Z confidence. Plus, the Biden administration is expected to restrict U.S. firms from investing in certain kinds of China-based tech. We’ll also discuss diversity at a major upcoming economic conference. Update (8/9/23): The story about diversifying the Kansas City Fed's Economic Policy Symposium has been updated to accurately reflect Boston Fed President Susan Collins’ involvement. For more information, check out the story on marketplace.org.

Farm lending activity at commercial banks in the Kansas City Fed's district slowed through the first half of 2023 as interest rates continued pushing higher.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Thomas Hoenig was the President of the Kansas City Fed for 10 years.  He tells Fox Business that the deep part of the recession is still in front of us.  What's your action plan heading into the new year? Hear how Steve can help protect and grow your income and create a market protection plan! Call Steve today for your complimentary Market Protection Plan! 

Amerikaanse bedrijven hebben in 2021 prijzen meer verhoogd dan de kosten zijn gestegen. Dat heeft de Kansas City Fed berekend. 'Daar komt meer dan de helft van de inflatie in dat jaar ook uit voort', zo weet econoom Edin Mujagic.  Volgens de regionale centrale bank hebben de bedrijven dat gedaan met de verwachting dat de kosten de aankomende jaren structureel zullen stijgen. En dat verklaart waarom de winstcijfers de afgelopen twee jaar zo goed bleven, denkt Mujagic. 'Ondanks de hoge inflatie, ondanks de lage economische groei, ze bleven winst maken.' Hij stelt zich dan ook hardop de vraag wanneer het bedrijven lukt om prijzen te hoog te maken. 'Ik denk dat het magische woord 'concurrentie' is', vervolgt hij. 'Als je weinig concurrentie hebt, kun je heel gemakkelijk de prijzen verhogen. En als we met die bril naar de Amerikaanse economie gaan kijken, dan wijst heel veel erop dat er in driekwart van de sectoren in de Amerikaanse economie sprake is van twee of drie bedrijven die het leeuwendeel van de markt in handen hebben. En dan begrijp je dat het ook in de Verenigde Staten redelijk gemakkelijk is om de prijzen wat verder te verhogen dan de stijging van de kosten. Die macht hebben ze nou eenmaal.'See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The S&P 500 was on its way to a fifth consecutive “decision day” gain this afternoon – until a unanimous Federal Open Market Committee confirmed the market's 100%-priced-in expectation of a 75-basis-point increase to the federal funds rate target range but firmly underscored its hawkish tone. Stocks turned red and yields surged at 2:00 p.m. ET, as the FOMC's “dot plot” suggested another 125 basis points of rate hikes over its last two meetings in 2022 and further tightening well into 2023. Reiterating that it's “highly attentive to inflation risks” and that it “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” the Fed also lowered its growth forecast for the year. Real Vision's Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Joseph “The Fed Guy” Wang for today's Daily Briefing to talk about Fed policy – looking back and going forward – and what it means for risk assets. We also hear from Thomas Hoenig, who led the Kansas City Fed for 20 years, about the risks “quantitative tightening” presents to the global financial system. Watch the full conversation featuring Thomas Hoenig and Harry Melandri here: https://f.io/fd0SmXxX. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Kansas City Fed says agricultural credit conditions remained strong in the second quarter, but slower improvement is expected during the months ahead. Those bankers who responded to the Federal Reserve Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions say farm income continued to increase.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Patrick Harker, Philadelphia Fed President, says the Fed should consider pausing rate hikes after hitting at least 3.4% by year end to see how the economy reacts. James Bullard, St. Louis Fed President, says the Fed's rate hikes are working at shorter lags than in the past. Raphael Bostic, Atlanta Fed President, says the Fed should keep interest rates higher “for a long time.” TD Securities Global Head of Rates Strategy Priya Misra and Citi Chief US Economist Andrew Hollenhorst react to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Kansas City Fed's annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The latest purchasing manager surveys (services, manufacturing, composite) and manufacturing index (Kansas City Fed) suggest the United States is heading towards a recession, soon (maybe already?).----EP. 254 REFERENCES----Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/3wh01G2RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7Epoch Times Columns: https://bit.ly/39ESkRf-------THE EPISODES-------YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLVurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MReason: https://bit.ly/3lt5NiHSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39XjrPodcastRepublic: https://bit.ly/3LH8JlV---------THE TEAM---------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments. Master of ceremonies, Emil Kalinowski. Illustrations by David Parkins. Audio and video editor, Terence. Episode intro/outro music is "Pretender" by Lazer Boomerang.------FIND THE TEAM-------Jeff: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPJeff: https://alhambrapartners.com/author/jsnider/Emil: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiEmil: https://www.EuroDollarEnterprises.comDavid: https://DavidParkins.com/Terence: https://www.VisualFocusMedia.comLazer Boomerang: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPnl9BuBDKx8_uQ2xNy-djg"Pretender": https://youtu.be/YBb3y6FHxgM

The 2022 Ag Symposium was held by the Kansas City Fed May 23rd and 24th, and the theme of the bank's annual event is help wanted in agriculture. Today, DTN Farm Business Editor Katie Dehlinger joins us to talk more about what she heard from President of the Kansas City Fed, Esther George, and from various Fed economists who have their attention trained on the ag sector as inflation climbs, global factors disrupt supply chains, and the resources farmers need to run their businesses get harder to find. From the bank's perspective– ag labor is at the top of the list, whether it's the need for hired hands on grain operations, cowboys or dairy workers, or picking and pruning teams, workers are becoming fewer and farther between. We'll discuss how the Fed understands this growing issue, what they can and can't do about it, and where they expect relief to come from.

Could you soon be feeling the squeeze in your pocketbook even more than you do now? Many economists, including former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, say the US could face stagflation. Dr. Thomas Hoenig from the Mercatus Institute, and former head of the Kansas City Fed, talks with Boyd about the likelihood of that and the real challenges our economy faces in the months ahead. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

My guest is Tim Todd, author, A GREAT MORAL AND SOCIAL FORCE: A History of Black Banks.  Tim is an executive writer and historian with the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. He is the author of eight books on the history of banking and financial services, including  A Great Moral and Social Force. Prior to joining the Federal Reserve, Tim was a journalist for 10 years and spent another five years as a writer focused on fixed income markets.A Great Moral and Social Force: A History of Black BanksA Great Moral and Social Force: A History of Black Banks is written as a historical reference on Black community banks, and serves as a guide to help all Americans think differently about our relationships with banks. The goal of the latest volume of the Kansas City Fed's historical book series is to move across eras and examine some of the communities where banks played a dual role in establishing both economic opportunity and social equality.  For more information and a free copy of the book go to https://www.kansascityfed.org/about-us/a-great-moral-and-social-force/.DIVERSE VOICES BOOK REVIEWSocial media:Facebook - @diversevoicesbookreviewInstagram - @diverse_voices_book_reviewTwitter - @diversebookshayEmail: hbh@diversevoicesbookreview.comWeb site: https://diversevoicesbookreview.wordpress.com/ 

After reviewing macro and markets for the week, Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau take a close look at the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of 10 indicators used to anticipate turns in the economic cycle (13:07). The podcast co-hosts assess the LEI's predictive track record since its inaugural print in January 1996, and they analyze its components. Those constituents have changed over time. The most recent such change was the substitution of the M2 money supply with the Leading Credit Index (20:47). The week of Aug. 16-20 was a relatively quiet one for U.S. stocks (slightly lower) and bonds (slightly higher). Jeff Mayberry, however, notes energy equities, a persistent frontrunner YTD, were the worst performer on the week (6:23), ceding leadership to real estate and financial stocks. Commodities ended the week mostly in the red (4:22). The week's $5 decline in West Texas Intermediate crude to $62 a barrel, Samuel Lau observes, reflected reduced travel and mobility, particularly in China, due to the spread of the Delta variant of the COVID-19 virus (4:45). The Aug. 18 release of the FOMC minutes (9:49), Jeff and Sam noted, raised the possibility, if the broad economic recovery continues, of a commencement of tapering by the Fed of asset purchases later in this year. That compares to market expectations of reduced QE starting in 2022. If the Fed does decide to taper this year, Mayberry notes, Fed Chair Jerome Powell doesn't have a lot of “runway” to prepare the markets. So perhaps, the cohosts speculate (30:17), Powell will signal how he's leaning in his next scheduled public appearance: 4 pm Eastern/1 pm Pacific Friday Aug. 27 on the Kansas City Fed's YouTube channel.