Podcasts about kansas city fed

We bring you the details on why shares of Oracle are tumbling today despite a strong earnings report from the company. Then, Former Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig joins to break down this morning's wholesale inflation data. Plus, we look ahead to the SpaceX IPO tomorrow and discuss why there could be outsized volatility for both the stock and the indexes it's in. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this podcast, Jeremy Hill, assistant vice president and regional executive at the Kansas City Fed, joins St. Louis Fed economist and Assistant Vice President Charles Gascon and Little Rock Regional Executive Matuschka Lindo Briggs to discuss economic insights in the Beige Book released on June 3.

More than any single institution, the US Federal Reserve drives global financial markets with its decisions and communications. While its interest rates are set by the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), for almost a century, the Fed's underlying philosophy and operations approach have been moulded by one person: the Chair of the Board of Governors. Over The Chair's eight episodes, Tim Jones talked to authors of books about the Fed's most consequential chiefs – Marriner Eccles, Bill Martin, Arthur Burns, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell. The Powell podcast was meant to be the last. But, after Kevin Warsh took over from Powell on 22 May 2026 and started preparing for his first FOMC meeting as chairman in mid-June, a ninth episode became irresistible. Who is this Republican hawk-turned-dove? As one policymaker among 12, has he over-promised to a volatile president? To discuss Warsh, Tim is joined by three "Fed watchers" – Claire Jones, Michael Redmond and Catarina Saraiva. Claire, who used to “watch” the European Central Bank for the Financial Times, is now the FT's US economics editor and has transferred her monitoring skills to the Fed. Catarina is a 17-year veteran at Bloomberg News, reporting exclusively on the Fed and US economics since 2019. Michael has been Medley Advisors' Fed analyst since 2022, having worked as an economist at the US Treasury and the Kansas City Fed. "I think [Warsh] has upset a lot of people with the criticisms that he's had of the Fed," says Claire Jones. "I think there's just this sense where people are worried because they're thinking: 'What did you have to say in order to get this job? What have you promised to the administration in order to get this job?' So, there's those issues of trust ... However, he is very charming; he's been at the Fed before; he knows how the game is played. So, I don't think that's necessarily entirely insurmountable". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

More than any single institution, the US Federal Reserve drives global financial markets with its decisions and communications. While its interest rates are set by the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), for almost a century, the Fed's underlying philosophy and operations approach have been moulded by one person: the Chair of the Board of Governors. Over The Chair's eight episodes, Tim Jones talked to authors of books about the Fed's most consequential chiefs – Marriner Eccles, Bill Martin, Arthur Burns, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell. The Powell podcast was meant to be the last. But, after Kevin Warsh took over from Powell on 22 May 2026 and started preparing for his first FOMC meeting as chairman in mid-June, a ninth episode became irresistible. Who is this Republican hawk-turned-dove? As one policymaker among 12, has he over-promised to a volatile president? To discuss Warsh, Tim is joined by three "Fed watchers" – Claire Jones, Michael Redmond and Catarina Saraiva. Claire, who used to “watch” the European Central Bank for the Financial Times, is now the FT's US economics editor and has transferred her monitoring skills to the Fed. Catarina is a 17-year veteran at Bloomberg News, reporting exclusively on the Fed and US economics since 2019. Michael has been Medley Advisors' Fed analyst since 2022, having worked as an economist at the US Treasury and the Kansas City Fed. "I think [Warsh] has upset a lot of people with the criticisms that he's had of the Fed," says Claire Jones. "I think there's just this sense where people are worried because they're thinking: 'What did you have to say in order to get this job? What have you promised to the administration in order to get this job?' So, there's those issues of trust ... However, he is very charming; he's been at the Fed before; he knows how the game is played. So, I don't think that's necessarily entirely insurmountable". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/economics

More than any single institution, the US Federal Reserve drives global financial markets with its decisions and communications. While its interest rates are set by the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), for almost a century, the Fed's underlying philosophy and operations approach have been moulded by one person: the Chair of the Board of Governors. Over The Chair's eight episodes, Tim Jones talked to authors of books about the Fed's most consequential chiefs – Marriner Eccles, Bill Martin, Arthur Burns, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell. The Powell podcast was meant to be the last. But, after Kevin Warsh took over from Powell on 22 May 2026 and started preparing for his first FOMC meeting as chairman in mid-June, a ninth episode became irresistible. Who is this Republican hawk-turned-dove? As one policymaker among 12, has he over-promised to a volatile president? To discuss Warsh, Tim is joined by three "Fed watchers" – Claire Jones, Michael Redmond and Catarina Saraiva. Claire, who used to “watch” the European Central Bank for the Financial Times, is now the FT's US economics editor and has transferred her monitoring skills to the Fed. Catarina is a 17-year veteran at Bloomberg News, reporting exclusively on the Fed and US economics since 2019. Michael has been Medley Advisors' Fed analyst since 2022, having worked as an economist at the US Treasury and the Kansas City Fed. "I think [Warsh] has upset a lot of people with the criticisms that he's had of the Fed," says Claire Jones. "I think there's just this sense where people are worried because they're thinking: 'What did you have to say in order to get this job? What have you promised to the administration in order to get this job?' So, there's those issues of trust ... However, he is very charming; he's been at the Fed before; he knows how the game is played. So, I don't think that's necessarily entirely insurmountable". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

More than any single institution, the US Federal Reserve drives global financial markets with its decisions and communications. While its interest rates are set by the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), for almost a century, the Fed's underlying philosophy and operations approach have been moulded by one person: the Chair of the Board of Governors. Over The Chair's eight episodes, Tim Jones talked to authors of books about the Fed's most consequential chiefs – Marriner Eccles, Bill Martin, Arthur Burns, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell. The Powell podcast was meant to be the last. But, after Kevin Warsh took over from Powell on 22 May 2026 and started preparing for his first FOMC meeting as chairman in mid-June, a ninth episode became irresistible. Who is this Republican hawk-turned-dove? As one policymaker among 12, has he over-promised to a volatile president? To discuss Warsh, Tim is joined by three "Fed watchers" – Claire Jones, Michael Redmond and Catarina Saraiva. Claire, who used to “watch” the European Central Bank for the Financial Times, is now the FT's US economics editor and has transferred her monitoring skills to the Fed. Catarina is a 17-year veteran at Bloomberg News, reporting exclusively on the Fed and US economics since 2019. Michael has been Medley Advisors' Fed analyst since 2022, having worked as an economist at the US Treasury and the Kansas City Fed. "I think [Warsh] has upset a lot of people with the criticisms that he's had of the Fed," says Claire Jones. "I think there's just this sense where people are worried because they're thinking: 'What did you have to say in order to get this job? What have you promised to the administration in order to get this job?' So, there's those issues of trust ... However, he is very charming; he's been at the Fed before; he knows how the game is played. So, I don't think that's necessarily entirely insurmountable". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

More than any single institution, the US Federal Reserve drives global financial markets with its decisions and communications. While its interest rates are set by the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), for almost a century, the Fed's underlying philosophy and operations approach have been moulded by one person: the Chair of the Board of Governors. Over The Chair's eight episodes, Tim Jones talked to authors of books about the Fed's most consequential chiefs – Marriner Eccles, Bill Martin, Arthur Burns, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell. The Powell podcast was meant to be the last. But, after Kevin Warsh took over from Powell on 22 May 2026 and started preparing for his first FOMC meeting as chairman in mid-June, a ninth episode became irresistible. Who is this Republican hawk-turned-dove? As one policymaker among 12, has he over-promised to a volatile president? To discuss Warsh, Tim is joined by three "Fed watchers" – Claire Jones, Michael Redmond and Catarina Saraiva. Claire, who used to “watch” the European Central Bank for the Financial Times, is now the FT's US economics editor and has transferred her monitoring skills to the Fed. Catarina is a 17-year veteran at Bloomberg News, reporting exclusively on the Fed and US economics since 2019. Michael has been Medley Advisors' Fed analyst since 2022, having worked as an economist at the US Treasury and the Kansas City Fed. "I think [Warsh] has upset a lot of people with the criticisms that he's had of the Fed," says Claire Jones. "I think there's just this sense where people are worried because they're thinking: 'What did you have to say in order to get this job? What have you promised to the administration in order to get this job?' So, there's those issues of trust ... However, he is very charming; he's been at the Fed before; he knows how the game is played. So, I don't think that's necessarily entirely insurmountable". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/finance

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news no-one knows what is going on in the Iran-US 'negotiations' - least of all Trump. Ships are transiting at trickle-pace, but they tend to be large Chinese tankers. The bottom line is essentially 'no progress'. And although the benchmark 10 year bond yields are basically holding, yields for shorter terms are catching up, so a rate flattening is underway. US jobless claims dipped last week, and by marginally more than seasonal factors would have expected. Precautionary stockpiling by manufacturers is currently driving the US factory sector. New order growth slowed slightly but is still higher than normal in May, according to the latest S&P Global PMI for the US. But factory activity has taken a step up so output is rising at its fastest pace in four years. Driving all this is the need to get ahead of surging input costs, which are spiking in dramatic fashion. But the activity surge isn't everywhere. The Philly Fed's factory survey unexpectedly contracted in May. The Kansas City Fed's survey was little-changed from a modest expansion. Both saw very little respite from elevated input costs. US housing starts dipped in April from the good March levels. They are being held up on the same drive to get ahead of expected large cost increases. Across the Pacific in Korea, they are feeling producer price inflation at disarmingly high levels. They rose +2.5% in April to be 6.9% higher than year ago levels. But factory input costs rose an average of +11.3% mainly for fuel and other oil-based inputs. And this is very interesting. After a strong rise in February, Japanese machinery orders were expected to ease back in March, and they did, and by about the expected level. However, export orders remained very strong. They are expecting the April-June quarter to just be level-pegging with the same period a year ago. But this whole machinery manufacturing sector is in an upswing phase that started in 2023 and one that gathered some real impetus from mid-2025. That Japanese factory order data is confirmed in April export data out yesterday. Japan's exports jumped almost +15% to a near-record high of ¥10.5 tln in April, accelerating from an +11.5% gain in March, the fastest pace in three months and topping market forecasts. Exports grew to China (+15.5%), the US (+9.5%), ASEAN (+19.9%), the EU (+26.9%), and India (+8.9%). The May Japanese factory PMI is still expanding quite quickly but cost pressures are surging. In India, their PMI is little changed at a healthy expansion, but they report that further expansion is being capped by this rising cost pressure. EU consumer sentiment has stayed very low in May, even if it did bounce back from the ugly April level. The EU economy is being forecasted to slow down amid rising inflation following the energy shock. The Eurozone factory PMI is still expanding, but less so, and under heavy input cost pressure too. The Australian labour market is weakening with a turn lower in April. The number of employed people fell by -19,000 in April, while the number of unemployed people rose by +33,000. Markets had expected employment to rise by +10,000. Their jobless rate is now 4.5%, the highest in seven months. (The New Zealand jobless rate was 5.3% in March 2026.) The April PMIs are out for Australia, and they show weakening business conditions. The S&P Global factory PMI slowed to a stall with the private sector getting its steepest fall in new business in over four-and-a-half years. The service sector is now in contraction after March's stall. And staying in Australia, there has been an outpouring of voices, a veritable cacophony, claiming the loss of low tax capital gains is an affront, "punishing aspiration". "stifling innovation". Since when did 'aspiration' and 'innovation' rely so heavily on discounted taxes on the gains made from this activity? Inequitable taxes on this activity is just distorting behaviour and it helps misrepresent what is being achieved. It also loads more tax on those that can't avail themselves of these distortions. They all want a "level playing field" - unless the playing field is unlevel in their favour. What we are seeing is a classic lesson for anyone designing a tax system. Make it neutral and fair to start with. Global container freight rates rose +6% last week to be +10% above year-ago levels, driven largely by outbound rates from China to the EU. Bulk freight rates fell -5.7% in the past week, easing after the prior six week run-up reaction to Trump's Gulf War. But that still leaves them +125% higher than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.58%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today up +US$20 at US$4553/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at just under US$77/oz. Oil prices have dipped -50 USc to just over US$97/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now at just on US$103.50/bbl The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 which is up +10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,759 and up +0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 1%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Glen chats with Lee Wetherington about Jack Henry's newly minted survey of nearly 200 credit union and bank CEOs, exploring how strategic priorities and top concerns differ by group and how they've shifted over time. Also, a treasure trove of new industry data- on consumer payment choice, household economics, crypto/stablecoin usage, and a breezy 269-page NCUA stroke of GENIUS for your holiday reading pleasure.      Links related to this episode: Jack Henry's 2026 Strategy Benchmark Study: https://discover.jackhenry.com/strategy-benchmark-study-2026 FRB Services' Diary of Consumer Payment Choice: https://www.frbservices.org/news/research/2026-findings-diary-consumer-payment-choice The Kansas City Fed's paper on stablecoin use: https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/15703/PaymentsSystemResearchBriefing26Noll0410.pdf The Federal Reserve Board's 2025 Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED): https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2025-report-economic-well-being-us-households-202605.pdf   CU Today on the NCUA's proposed approach to implementing the GENIUS Act: https://www.cutoday.info/THE-feature/NCUA-s-New-Stablecoin-Framework-Sparks-Debate-Over-CUs-Best-Digital-Dollar-Strategy  Join us for our next CU Town Hall- Wednesday May 20 at 3pm ET/Noon PT- a live and lively interactive conversation tackling the major issues facing credit unions today. In this session, John will dissect OpenAI's new personal finance offering. The Town Hall is free to attend, but advance registration is required:  https://www.cutownhall.com/   Follow us on LinkedIn:  https://www.linkedin.com/company/best-innovation-group/   https://www.linkedin.com/in/jbfintech/  https://www.linkedin.com/n/glensarvady/

What should we expect from the Fed as Kevin Warsh takes over as Chairman this week?Given the inflationary oil price shock from the US-Iran war, are rate cuts now off the table?Are rate *hikes* possible ahead?For answers, we're incredibloy fortunate to welcome back to the program Dr Thomas Hoenig, former CEO of the Kansas City Fed, former voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, a former director of the FDIC, and now a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#dollar #federalreserve #fiatcurrency _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Thoughtful-Money-Disclosure-Document-12.6.23.pdf?pid=227Thoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Thoughtful-Money-Agreement-Agreement.docx?pid=227IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the breakdown of free passage in the Strait of Hormuz seems to have others considering the possibilities. Even if it isn't a formal idea, an Indonesian minister has wondered out loud about tolling the Malacca Strait. And there is no indication of progress on re-opening the Strait of Hormuz. It is still a deadly no-go zone with no end in sight. Only bad news from the Persian Gulf. In the US, actual initial jobless claims fell last week by -9,700 from the prior week. But this was less than the -16,000 seasonal factors would have expected. There are now 1,863,000 people on these benefits, less than the 1,880,000 a year ago but more than the 1,780,000 two years ago. There was positive news from the US 'flash' PMIs for April. The factory version is expanding faster and is at a four year high. Their services sector is expanding again in a modest way after the March contraction. But the April factory survey by the Kansas City Fed reported no improvement from the modest expansion in March. However, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index was notably lower in its latest update, reporting its biggest drop of the year. And if you are working for the "Magnificent7" you may struggle to hold on to your job in the face of some severe downsizing. Meta has announced -10% or 8000 job cuts and said its 6000 open positions would be cancelled. And Microsoft is starting to shrink its large workforce by -7%. "AI productivity" is behind these moves. Canada said its PPI rose sharply in March, up +7.8% from the same month in 2025, driven by very high metals price increases which were up an eye-watering +23.6% on that same annual basis. In India, their April 'flash' PMIs reported a fast expansion that actually accelerated in the month, both for services and factories. In Taiwan, and given earlier data on new orders, it will probably be no surprise to know that their industrial production was up +29% from a year ago, the fastest jump on record there. Their retail sales grew too, a turnaround from prior flat results, but nothing like in their factory sector. There were 'flash' April PMIs out in Japan yesterday and their factory sector is strengthening (54.9 and a four year high) while their services sector's expansion cooled somewhat (51.2). This report also noted intensified cost pressures. South Korea reported its Q1-2025 GDP rise at +3.6% from the equivalent 2025 quarter. This was the fastest growth since the fourth quarter of 2021 and exceeded forecasts of +2.7%. In Europe, their factory sector is doing it tough in April. Eurozone output fell for first time in 16 months as prices surged higher. In Australia, their S&P Global PMI tracking shows their economy expanding again in April after the surprise March contraction. Their factory PMI is back expanding at a modest pace (51.0) while their services sector is back at a steady state (50.3) after the notable March contraction. They noted rising cost pressures however. Global container freight rates were essentially flat over the past week, with trans-Pacific rates rising but China-EU rates falling. These are now little-changed from a year ago too, up a minor +3% on that annual basis. But bulk cargo rates rose a sharpish +11% over the past week to be +110 higher than year ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.33%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$54 at US$4682/oz. Silver is down -US$2 at just under US$76/oz. American oil prices are up +US$34at just on US$96.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is also up +US$4, and now at US$105.50/bbl and back in the range it was during the second half of March. The Kiwi dollar is down a sharpish -60 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at just on 50.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -50 bps from yesterday at just on 62 and a two week low. The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,590 and down -1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Tuesday – because Monday is a public holiday in New Zealand, ANZAC Day.

What were the most important legal and regulatory developments in crypto this month? In this episode, we review developments from stablecoin rulemaking and DeFi liability cases to the ongoing fight over prediction markets. Jonathan Schmalfeld is Director of Policy at The Digital Chamber, where he focuses on crypto policy, digital asset legislation, and regulatory developments in Washington.Timestamps➡️ 1:07 — SEC guidance allowing broker-dealers to apply a 2% capital haircut to payment stablecoins➡️ 4:37 — OCC's GENIUS Act implementation proposal and the debate over stablecoin yield restrictions➡️ 11:14 — The Promoting Innovation and Blockchain Development Act and developer liability protections➡️ 17:27 — Federal court dismissal of claims against Uniswap and what it means for DeFi developers➡️ 22:55 — How Kalshi enforced insider trading rules in its CFTC-regulated prediction markets➡️ 27:37 — Kalshi's preliminary injunction against Tennessee regulators and the federal preemption fight➡️ 31:15 — Why prediction market litigation could eventually reach the U.S. Supreme Court➡️ 36:25 — Institutional adoption: Morgan Stanley custody plans, Kraken's Fed master account, and crypto banking licenses➡️ 40:24 — Operation Chokepoint 2.0 and proposed rules eliminating “reputational risk” in bank supervision➡️ 43:23 — Why competition between crypto and traditional finance is acceleratingSponsor: Day One Law, a boutique corporate law firm founded by Nick Pullman. Nick and his team at Day One provide strategic legal counsel to startups, crypto projects, and Web3 innovators. ⁠You can get in contact with them via this link⁠: ⁠⁠https://www.dayonelaw.xyz/#contactResources:

Tid er penger har gleden av å invitere tidligere sentralbanksjef i Kansas City Fed og stemmende medlem av rentestyret i USA, Thomas Hoenig som gjest i podcasten igjen. Hoenig har dyp innsikt om tilstanden i økonomien i USA og hva sentralbanken bør gjøre fremover. Men han er også i en unik situasjon nå, med å både kjenne den kommende sentralbanksjefen Kevin Warsh godt og ha jobbet med han nettopp i FOMC i mange år. Her får vi alle sjansen til å kanskje få litt innsyn i hvordan han vil håndtere denne viktige rollen. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Crypto News: Kraken exchange wins Kansas City Fed approval for limited master account. Morgan Stanley taps Coinbase and BNY Mellon for custody in proposed Bitcoin ETF. Western Union teams with Crossmint to support USDPT stablecoin on Solana. Brought to you by

Top Stories of the DayBitcoin's Consolidation Phase: Bitcoin has retreated toward the $71,000 mark after failing to sustain its breakout above $74,000. While market conviction is currently thin, long-term allocators have reportedly been quietly adding to their positions during recent dips.Link: Bitcoin pulls back to near $71,000NYSE Owner Backs OKX: In a landmark deal, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has invested in the OKX exchange at a $25 billion valuation. The partnership plans to bring tokenized stocks and new derivatives to the market later this year.Link: NYSE Parent Invests in OKX at $25B ValuationMorgan Stanley Funds AI-Crypto Pivot: Bitcoin miner Core Scientific secured a massive $1 billion loan facility from Morgan Stanley to expand its data centers for high-performance computing and AI workloads.Link: Core Scientific secures up to $1B credit from Morgan StanleyRevolut's Second U.S. Banking Push: Fintech giant Revolut has officially filed for a U.S. banking license for the second time, aiming for direct access to the Fedwire and ACH payment networks.Link: UK Fintech Revolut Applies for US Banking LicenseThe "Seized Crypto" Heist: Authorities in France have arrested the son of a U.S. government contractor, John Daghita, for allegedly stealing $46 million in crypto from seizure wallets managed by his father's company.Link: Authorities nab suspect accused of stealing $46m in cryptoFederal Charter for Stablecoins: Infrastructure provider ZeroHash has applied to the OCC for a national trust bank charter to streamline its regulated stablecoin operations under a single federal framework.Link: ZeroHash Applies to OCC for National Trust Bank CharterGlobal Adoption Milestones: Cardano's ADA is now a payment option at 137 Spar supermarkets in Switzerland, while Kraken has secured limited master account access from the Kansas City Fed.Link: Cardano's ADA Token Now Accepted at Spar Supermarkets Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Despite high beef prices, the U.S. cattle herd remains at record low numbers. Nate Kauffman, the senior vice president and Omaha branch executive for the Kansas City Fed, said the numbers show there should be some rebuilding underway. NAFB News ServiceSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the US dollar is being marked down as demand for precious metal hedges rises.But first in the US there were 260,000 initial jobless claims last week, down -71,000 from the prior week and a marginally smaller change that the -73,000 change seasonal factors would have expected. There are now 2.21 mln people on these benefits, marginally less than the 2.24 mln a year ago. Two years ago, pre-Trump, there were 1.75 mln people on these benefits.US real personal income rose +1.0% in November from the same month a year ago. On this inflation-adjusted basis it has been flat since April 2025. But real personal consumption expenditures rose +2.6%. On an inflation-adjusted basis this is the same pace of rise that started in April 2021. It has been driven recently by services and non-durable goods. While the PCE data is still within the Fed's inflation band, the income drag will be worrying policymakers. The spending rise can't be maintained.The latest regional Fed factory survey, this one from the Kansas City Fed, shows no improvement from its dour base. It is still negative.Malaysia's central bank reviewed its monetary policy and related policy rate overnight and made no change to its 2.75% level. They have a strong economic expansion underway, and inflation is low.Japan's exports rose +5.1% in December from the same month a year ago, the fourth monthly increase and reaching a record value. As good as that was, analysts had expected a rise of +6.1%. Imports climbed +5.3% on the same basis, the fastest pace in 11 months and much faster than November's +1.3% rise.The EU's consumer sentiment survey for January was marginally better (less worse) than for December - again. This continues the slow grinding improvement from its depths in September 2022 and halving that negative level. But it is still negative at double the negative pre-pandemic. Still it is on an improved trajectory and that is in sharp contrast to the US where the similar UofM survey is now deeply negative with a recent deterioration and half the level it was pre-pandemicIn Australia, their labour market performed well in December. Employment increased by +65,000 in the month to 14.65 mln, with full time employment up +54,800 and part-time employment up +10,400. Hours worked rose. As a consequence their jobless rate fell to 4.1%, well below the prior 4.3% and the expected 4.4%. This probably ends any chance of a rate cut early February and brings forward the chance of a rate hike in 2026. Everything now depends on next week's CPI outcome where there is upside risk to November's 3.4% CPI rate now.Staying in Australia, job ad portal Seek is saying their platform shows job ads dropped -1.2% in December from November, and are down -3.5% from the same month a year ago. Applications per job ad fell -0.3% in December, "demonstrating a slightly sharper year-end decline in candidate activity than usual".And Australian unicorn Airwallex is to be investigated by the money laundering regulator AUSTRAC. They suspect "serious non-compliance" by the global payments platform, specialising in moving money internationally for dodgy clients.And we should probably note that the Trump Administration has advanced its role in granting licenses to mine the seabed in international waters. It is currently mapping resources off Samoa, and it has granted its first license to mine in international water to a US miner. The US only recognises a 12 mile country claim, so vast areas are now open to grant permits for their firms to mine. There is potential trouble ahead on jurisdictional issues.Global container freight rates fell -10% last week from the prior week to be -43% below year-ago levels. Bulk cargo freight rates rose +16% in the past week to be double year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.25%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4909/oz, and up another +US$66 from yesterday and a new record again. Silver is up +US$2.50/oz at US$96/oz and also a record high.American oil prices are down -US$1 from yesterday at just on US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$64/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is firmer from yesterday, up +50 bps to 59 USc as the USD is devalued in financial markets. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 86.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 62.9, and up +40 bps from yesterday and its highest since late September.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,026 and up +1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.Join us later this morning when we will report the New Zealand Q4-2025 CPI result, which could set the scene for the RBNZ decisions in 2026, the next one on February 18, 2026. Markets expect a 3.0% CPI rate, right at the top end of the central bank's policy comfort level.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news there were many central banks reviewing their settings overnight and most stayed unchanged.But first up today we can report a considerable surprise in the November CPI result. Markets had expected a 3.1% rate. But there was no October reading due to shutdown problems and this may have affected the collecting of November data. In any case the official November result was published as a rise of 2.7%, a sharply lower level no analyst saw coming. Apparently, falling rents were a big part of the retreat. (And don't forget, the last US BLS boss who delivered unwelcome results was fired by the Administration.). In any event, financial markets have taken it at face value, accepting there is no affordability problem, Just as the President has claimed.And official US initial jobless claims came in at the expected +255,000, so there are now 1.882 mln people on these benefits, fractionally more than the 1.864 mln in the same week a year ago.In non-Administration controlled data, the news isn't so bright. The Philly Fed's December factory survey fell sharply again, retreating as it has done in the past two months. And this came as new orders actually rose, although from a low level. It is a survey that has reported 'future conditions' very positive for more than a year now, but also reporting 'current conditions languishing.The similar Kansas City Fed factory survey fell into a mild contraction in December, a sharpish fall from November. Again, those surveyed were still upbeat probably because new orders ticked higher. But more companies are reporting higher prices paid for supplies.In Canada, they are reporting rising SME business optimism, and the highest since May 2022.The Taiwan central bank held its policy rate unchanged at 2% overnight. The ECB held their unchanged too at 2.15%.Sweden held their 1.75% rate unchanged as well at their overnight meeting. Norway held their at 4.0%. But the English central bank had a need to cut theirs, by -25 bps to 3.75%, in a split 5-4 decision (the four dissenters wanted no cut.) Japan will review its policy rate later today and is widely expected to raise it by +25 bps.In Australia, inflation expectations rose to 4.7% in December from 4.5% in November, and have now been at or above 4.5% for six of the past seven months.Global freight rates for containerised cargoes rose +12% last week to be -43% lower than year-ago levels. The latest rise was driven by very much stronger demand in the outbound China to the US rates. Separately, bulk cargo freight rates fell -13% last week but are now +50% higher than year ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.13%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4367/oz, and up another +US$35 from yesterday, and which we make as a new record high. Silver is at US$65/oz and sharply back off its record high.American oil prices are slightly firmish from yesterday at just under US$56.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is still just under US$60/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday, still at just on 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are -20 bps softer at 87.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 62, and again little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$88,092 and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, at just on +/- 2.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates when it meets again in two weeks?Wall Street has been whipsawing the odds back & forth over the past few weeks.To address that question, plus the even larger one of who is likely to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his tenure ends in the Spring, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program Dr Thomas Hoenig, former CEO of the Kansas City Fed, former voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, a former director of the FDIC, and now a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center.Follow Dr Hoenig at https://www.finregrag.com/ and https://www.mercatus.org/WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#federalreserve #QE #moneyprinting _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with markets investors are looking sceptically at restarted US data and the outstanding Nvidia result.First, the American initial jobless claims reporting has restarted, and they say 216,700 new people filed for these benefits last week, up from 214,000 in the same week a year ago. There are now 1.727 mln people on these benefits, up from 1.66 mln a year ago and the highest since 2021.And for the record, they released their September non-farm payrolls report overnight too, claiming +119,000 new jobs created in the month. The non-seasonally adjusted data records a rise from the same month a year earlier of +1.2 mln, the least year-on-year rise since the pandemic. The related wage growth data was weak. And they also announced that they will not be releasing an October report.Meanwhile, the Philly Fed factory survey for October weakened again, including for factory orders. Inflation pressures were reported as higher. Despite all this extended depressed state, these firms say they are optimistic about the future.It was the inverse story for the same report from the Kansas City Fed. Current conditions were mildly positive and stable, cost pressures eased, but future prospects are less enthusiastic. New order levels dipped here too, but only slightly.In Canada, their October PPI came in +6.0% higher than year-ago levels, a rise. They may be surviving the trade war punishment from the US, but it is coming with higher costs.In Taiwan, their October export orders rose +25% from the same month a year ago. As high as that is, it just continues the stellar expansion they have reported all year.In China, they say they are going to extend their trade-in subsidy program, to keep their modest consumer spending levels underpinned.And as widely anticipated, the People's Bank of China kept its key lending rates at record lows for a sixth consecutive month in November. But there is increasing talk that they will be [pressured into reducing them at some stage to weigh against below-target growth.In Europe, German producer prices fell in October, down -1.8% from the same month a year ago.In Australia, the IMF told them that they should hike their GST, abandon their tax cuts, and spend more carefully if it wants to keep a fiscally sustainable economy.And Australia released its GDP by State (they call it GSP). On a real basis for the year to June 2025, NSW expanded +0.9%, Victoria by +1.1%, Queensland by +2.2%, South Australia by +1.0% and Western Australia by +1.3% from the equivalent 2023/24 year. The national rise was +1.4%. But on a per capita basis, only Queensland and Tasmania recorded gains. Nationally it was a -0.3% decline per capita.Global freight rates for container cargoes were unchanged over the past week, to sit -46% lower than year ago levels. But the weekly change masks rising outbound China to Europe rates, while outbound China to the US rates are falling. Meanwhile, bulk cargo freight rates rose +11% over the past week and are now +39% higher than a year ago.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.11%, unchanged from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4055/oz, and down -US$16 from this time yesterday.American oil prices have softened another -50 USc from yesterday to be just under US$59/bbl, with the international Brent price little-changed and still under US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56 USc, and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 86.8 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 48.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.7, and little-changed from yesterday, and still its lowest since July 2009.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,411 and down another -2.4% from yesterday and -11% below year-ago levels. In fact, it is falling as we publish. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Former Kansas City Fed President Esther George is joined by Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz to discuss the lack of consensus from within the Federal Reserve in recent days.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Even with the federal data slowdown, there are still alternative indicators that give us a view into what's happening in the US economy and commercial real estate. In this episode, our hosts, Omar Eltorai and Cole Perry, lean on data from private providers and trade organizations to uncover what's happening across consumers, small businesses, labor, and financial markets and what it all means for CRE. They're joined by Andrew Pabon from Altus Group's Valuation Advisory team to share insights on the CRE debt space. Key Moments:01:31 Labor market indicators05:35 Consumer data insights13:21 Financial market conditions and business data17:01 Small business economic trends20:51 CRE credit trends and debt market insights28:41 Interview with Andrew Pabon on the US CRE debt landscape41:24 Upcoming economic data releases Resources Mentioned:Andrew Pabon - https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-pabon-15a6976/Altus Group CRE Debt Capital Markets Survey - https://www.altusgroup.com/featured-insights/cre-debt-capital-markets-survey-registration/Alternative version of Kansas City Fed's Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) - https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/economic-bulletin/an-alternative-version-of-the-kc-fed-lmci-suggests-little-change-in-the-labor-market-in-september/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/Federal Reserve G.19 Consumer Credit Report - https://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/g19/current/New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations - https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index - https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/nfci/current-dataNFIB Small Business Economic Trends report - https://www.nfib-sbet.org/MainPage.htmlEmail us: altusresearch@altusgroup.comThanks for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that currency markets, bond markets and equity markets all react to unexpectedly 'strong' US data releases overnight, much of it sceptical. In fact we are getting rising risk aversion questioning its believability.US initial jobless claims came in last week at just over 180,000, and less than expected, and less than seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.728 mln people on these benefits, but still +100,000 more than at the same time last year.And new orders for manufactured durable goods rose marginally in August from July, following two consecutive monthly decreases. That puts them a good +5.4% higher than year-ago levels. But non-defence, non-aircraft capital goods orders were low in the month, up just +1.6% from a year ago and it seems clear boardrooms are not enthusiastic investors at this point.This data is far more positive than the regional Fed factory survey are picking up, so we will need to wait before we conclude reshoring is actually happening.The September factory survey from the Kansas City Fed described only very modest changes in factories in their region. Order backlogs reduced as did new orders for export.In fact, US exports fell -1.4% in August in updated trade data, while imports fell -5.6%. That narrowed their trade deficit but only to the level it was in June, and not materially different to August a year ago. So it is hard to see much 'progress' here in shrinking this.But, the final US GDP result for the June quarter came in with a huge revision higher, up +3.8% from a year ago. This was apparently driven by a decrease in imports, and an increase in consumer spending, offset by decreases in investment and exports. There was a one-off revision to the consumer spending data in this release which twisted things somewhat. Again, this data is hard to reconcile with the real-time high-frequency data that we saw in the second quarter, but this is what they are reporting.If the Fed accepts this GDP data, rate cuts there are likely pushed further away.Meanwhile, August data on existing home sales dipped in August.In Canada, they reported average weekly earnings for July and they were up +3.3% to C$1,308 from a year ago, following a +3.6% increase in June.And staying in Canada, their federal government has instructed Canada Post to end door-to-door postal delivery.In China, the yuan has appreciated to the highest level in nearly 10 months against the American dollar as concerns over frictions between the world's two largest economies subside and China's economic growth prospects remain steady.In Taiwan, after four consecutive months of decreases, their reported retail sales that rose in August from a year ago. This data is modest compared to their booming industrial sector as we noted yesterday.And perhaps we should note that the Swiss central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0% in an overnight review. Switzerland has inflation running at just +0.2% pa.Container freight rates fell faster last week, down -8% for the week to be a massive -55% lower than year-ago levels. And it was again outbound rates from China that is driving this retreat. But bulk freight rates actually rose again last week by +2.9% to be +10.5% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3739/oz, up just +US$6 from yesterday. Silver is on the mover however, up approaching US$45/oz.American oil prices are little-changed at just under US$65/bbl, with the international Brent price still just over US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.6 USc and down another -50 bps from yesterday and that is its lowest level since mid-April. Against the Aussie we are down just -10 bps at 88.2 AUc and near a three-year low. Against the euro we are actually unchanged at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 65.2, and down another -30 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,928 and down -4.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at just over +/- 2.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Every year the Kansas City Fed hosts the Jackson Hole symposium. All eyes are on the opening speech from Jerome Powell which was widely covered by the news media. To me, the more interesting talks are the invited speakers who give talks on various elements of the economy. The theme this year at Jackson Hole is demographics and the impact on the labor market. So this week we will be doing a mini series summarizing the most noteworthy talks from Jackson Hole this year. The paper we are examining is by Emi Nakamura from Berkeley University. In this paper the author is examing the Taylor Rule named after John Taylor who came up with the observation after six years at the Fed, specifically examining the Alan Greenspan years. Emi Nakamura shows convincingly that the Taylor Rule rarely if ever applies in the real world, except for those six years. -------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Former Kansas City Fed President Esther George discusses the Trump-Cook Saga with Bloomberg's Scarlet Fu and Bailey Lipschultz.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets have brushed off the Nvidia result and chosen to extend their risk appetite. The S&P500 is at another new record high. But bond markets aren't so sure this is justified.In the real world, US initial jobless claims were little-changed last week from the prior week, both in actual terms and from what seasonal factors would have suggested. There are now 1,945,000 people on these benefits, +101,500 more than at the same time last year.The American GDP Q2-2025 GDP was revised slightly higher in its second estimate than the first mainly due to a slightly smaller decline in investment.Pending home sales fell -0.4% in July from June, extending the -0.8% drop in the prior month to mark the first back-to-back contraction since January. They were down -0.7% from a year ago as the American housing market seems in a long-term slow decline having never really recovering from the pandemic period.The Kansas City Fed factory survey was stable overall but that was despite a fall in export orders and elevated cost pressures. survey. There was a modest rise in August from July, but most metrics are still lower than a year ago.Earlier today there was a much less supported US Treasury seven year bond auction (-11% less bid value) but the median yield fell to 3.87% from 4.06% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In Canada they reported that average weekly earnings were up +3.7% to C$1,302 in June, following a +3.3% increase in May.In India, industrial production rose in July and the pace picked up by more than expected. The expansion was +3.5% when +2.1% was anticipated, and more than double the pace of June's +1.5%.In Europe, despite their inflation pressures being modest and on target, settling it at 2.0%, the overnight release of the ECB minutes revealed a split among policy makers on how to assess future risk. They left their policy rate unchanged despite some thinking rates need to go lower to support growth and counter US tariffs, while others thinking the risk of future inflation is rising. Despite that split review, in the end the decision to hold rates unchanged was unanimous.Global container shipping freight rates fell -6% last week from the week before to be -60% lower than year-ago levels, although that year-ago base reflected unusual stress in the Red Sea shipping lanes. Once again, the recent falls are all to do with outbound trade from China. Interestingly, Chinese shippers are now targeting Australia and New Zealand, along with the Middle East because of the higher rates they can get in these alternative trades. Bulk cargo rates are little changed week-on-week but are up nearly +20% from a year ago.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.21%, down -3 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,415/oz, up +US$20 from yesterday.American oil prices are little-changed at US$64/bbl with the international Brent price is still just under US$68/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.9 USc and up +30 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.4, and up a net +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,596 and up +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Every year the Kansas City Fed hosts the Jackson Hole symposium. All eyes are on the opening speech from Jerome Powell which was widely covered by the news media. To me, the more interesting talks are the invited speakers who give talks on various elements of the economy. The theme this year at Jackson Hole is demographics and the impact on the labor market. So this week we will be doing a mini series summarizing the most noteworthy talks from Jackson Hole this year. Some of these talks are considered boring by the news media and they don't get covered. But for those who seek to understand how the economy functions, these talks are very interesting.On today's show we are examining a paper called "Interstate Labor Mobility and the US Economy". It has four authors, two from the University of Michigan and two from Europe. Their paper discusses how Gross migration rates within the United States have undergone a subtle but significant transformation over the past five decades. While some sources, notably the Current Population Survey (CPS), paint a picture of a steep decline, plunging from over 3% to a mere 1.2% by the end of the sample period, a closer look at more robust data tells a different story. Using IRS data, the authors show that labor force mobility declined to 2.5% from 3% over that same time period. They further break down the components of why people move. One factor that I believe was not adequately addressed is the rise of remote work. People don't have to move for work in many instances. That virtual mobility may in fact be by choice rather than necessity. -------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Every year the Kansas City Fed hosts the Jackson Hole symposium. All eyes are on the opening speech from Jerome Powell which was widely covered by the news media. To me, the more interesting talks are the invited speakers who give talks on various elements of the economy. The theme this year at Jackson Hole is demographics and the impact on the labor market. So this week we will be doing a mini series summarizing the most noteworthy talks from Jackson Hole this year. Some of these talks are considered boring by the news media and they don't get covered. But for those who seek to understand how the economy functions, these talks are very interesting. Our first one is focused on a talk by Claudia Goldin from Harvard University.-----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Your mid-week commentary is a day early this week because I am putting out a special film tomorrow all about everyone's favourite metal. Watch your inboxes.There is a shift of enormously significant proportions taking place. In magnitude it will prove as significant as Bretton Woods in 1944, when the dollar became the de facto global reserve currency, and the Nixon Shock of 1971, when the US abandoned the last vestiges of its gold standard.This shift is going to shape the global financial landscape over the next few years. You need to understand what is happening, so that you can position yourself and your family.You may even be able to profit handsomely from the transition.Today we explain US dollar policy: what is going on and, more importantly, where it is all going.Ready? Here goes.The Manufacturing Imperative and The Curse of the Reserve CurrencyAmerica wants to bring manufacturing back on shore. We all know this. US President Donald Trump has said it repeatedly, his VP JD Vance has said it, and so has his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who keeps reminding us that it is now time to prioritise Main Street over Wall Street.Part of the reshoring of US manufacturing involves tariffs, as we know all too well. Part of it involves weakening the US dollar to make US exports more competitive. Again Trump, Vance and Bessent have all said it.However, there is a problem, and that problem has a name: Triffin's Dilemma.You might think it's an advantage to issue the global reserve currency. You can issue dollars. Everyone else has to work for them. The French called it "America's exorbitant privilege." But this was a status the US engineered for itself during the Bretton Woods Agreement that determined the monetary order at the end of World War Two.What has happened, however, is that it has made the US fat and lazy, especially since 1971 when the US abandoned the ties of the dollar to gold.To supply the world with dollars, the US must run trade deficits. That is to say it must buy more than it sells. Persistent trade deficits have, over time, eroded its industrial base. Factories and jobs have gone offshore. Foreign nations have used their profits to invest in US capital markets and its debt. Meanwhile financial markets - aka Wall Street - have grown and grown, as America financialized.The Trump administration gets it in a way its predecessors did not. Vance has actually called the dollar's reserve status a "tax" on American producers.What's more, as this process has continued, the credibility of the dollar itself is being called further into doubt.Trump wants to revitalise America's Rust Belt. But there is more to it than that. As the curtains pulled back with Covid, the extent to which the US has been operating with its trousers down was exposed: an excessive dependence on China and its supply chains for too many strategically essential products, especially related to health, tech and the military. Then, during the Ukraine conflict, NATO found itself unable to match Russian production. The US, in short, is struggling to produce critical goods. It's why Trump keeps harping on about rare earth metals. It is vulnerable.The answer is to engineer a "managed decline" of the dollar as global reserve asset.The Golden Exit StrategyThis was already happening organically. China, for example, has been reducing its holdings of US treasuries for ten years now - quite gradually - although its US dollar holdings remain above $3 trillion.Meanwhile, China - and many other countries along the Silk Road besides - have been increasing their gold holdings, and quite dramatically. (In my view China has at least four times as much gold as it says it does. You can read more on this in my book). The process is known as de-dollarisation. Just a few months ago gold overtook the euro to become the second most held asset by central banks, while the dollar itself fell beneath 50% for the first time this century.We are not seeing a move towards any other national currency as global reserve, but towards the neutral but universal asset that is gold, as analyst Luke Groman points out. That suits all the main players. Gold is neutral, and both the US (supposedly) and China have lots of it.Indeed, a gold revaluation would be a "win-win" for both. A higher gold price would strengthen US fiscal flexibility while boosting Chinese consumers' wealth, encouraging domestic consumption and reducing trade imbalances.There is the potential to leverage the US's 261 million ounces (8,133 tonnes) of gold reserves, currently marked to market at just $42/oz. There are two ways this might be done. Economist Judy Shelton has proposed issuing Treasuries that are in part backed by gold to offset the inflation/debasement risk to make them more attractive to buyers. The other possibility (which has gone from, as Bessent put it, "we are not doing this" to "we are not doing this yet") is to revalue the gold from $42 to the current price of $3,300/oz, which would create over $850 billion of reserves without having to incur any extra debt. That would help with the US's current fiscal challenges: true interest expenses (including entitlements and veterans' affairs) currently exceed 100% of Treasury receipts.If you buying gold or silver coins to protect yourself in these “interesting times” - and I urge you to - as always I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.In short, the US administration is leaning into a weaker dollar and neutral reserve assets like gold to rebalance trade and rebuild domestic industry, even at the cost of short-term economic pain.Your really should subscribe.Bitcoin's Digital Advantage and The Stablecoin BridgeBitcoin, as the world's best neutral digital currency, is going to have a role to play in all of this as well.The US is quite happy with that, as evidenced by its pro-bitcoin rhetoric. At the national, corporate and individual levels the US has a lot of bitcoin. The US itself has 198,000 coins, the most of any nation, Strategy (NYSE:MSTR) has 630,000 and many other companies besides also hold, and at least 15% of US citizens own bitcoin. Of the eventual 21 million supply, of which probably 15% has been lost and another 1.3 million are locked up by Satoshi Nakamoto and will likely never appear (he is almost certainly dead), the US has a hefty chunk.Which brings us to the recent Genius Act. This effectively nixed CBDCs just as the EU's Christine Lagarde was planning to phase them in (LOL). However, it supported stablecoins (that is coins backed by dollars). The more bitcoin grows the more the stablecoin market will grow. As the stable coin market grows so will its demand for treasuries. Today, roughly half the entire US dollar stablecoin market, estimated at $250 billion, is invested in US treasuries (maybe 2% of the overall treasuries market). Tether is the world's 7th largest buyer.The market is small, but growing rapidly. 2035 projections include $500 billion (J.P.Morgan's projection) to $2 trillion (Standard Chartered) and $4 trillion (Bernstein) by 2035."If the stablecoin market meets these growth projections," says the Kansas City Fed, "it could lead to a substantial redistribution of funds within the financial system."In other words the stablecoin market is going to help the US fund its debt, just as other nations move away from treasuries to gold and bitcoin.Gold might suit the US, but bitcoin suits it better, especially if there are complications surrounding the Fort Knox gold, which it seems there are. Why no audit yet?Tell people about this.Gold vs Bitcoin, Analogue vs Digital: The Coming ShowdownIt's likely a few years from now there is going to be some sort of showdown between gold and bitcoin in the battle for primary reserve asset status. It's unlikely to be both. Governments will favour gold, as they have lots of it. Tradition is on their side. Eternal gold has a track record that is unrivalled. But it is an analogue asset in a digital world. Bitcoin is much more practical. Which will win out? Practical digital or impractical analogue?This is a contest that is still a way off. For now all roads lead to gold and bitcoin as the world de-dollarizes.Own both is what I say.Needless to say the UK is absolutely clueless in all of this, having sold two-thirds of its gold in 1999, made it near impossible for UK citizens to buy bitcoin, now planning to sell its bitcoin holdings, now the largest holder of US treasuries in the world after Japan and making no attempt to buy any gold.With the threat of AI and automation to America's jobs - especially in driving where millions work - there is the risk of mass unemployment coming quite quickly, and with it plentiful defaults on mortgages and loans. This could force the U.S. to print money, driving inflation and providing yet another reason to own gold and bitcoin, which cannot be debased.From October 8th, UK citizens will finally be able to buy bitcoin ETNs.I was lucky enough over the weekend to find myself as a house guest under the same roof as Interactive Investor CEO Richard Wilson. We talked a lot. He knows how landmark the date October 8th is for UK investors and has made sure II are well positioned in a way that other brokerages are not. You might not be able to buy the US ETFs due to FCA nonsense, but anything listed in the UK will be available. So if you don't already have an account at II you might do well to open an account now. Click this link and the first year is free.In short, the dollar will weaken significantly over the next three years. The pound is a basket case. National currencies are not stores of wealth. Gold and bitcoin are. Own both as the Trump administration addresses Triffin's Dilemma through a managed dollar decline. They will use gold and potentially bitcoin to restore US industrial and military strength.You have been warned.Tell people about this post.Watch your inboxes. Tomorrow I'll be putting out a 15-minute film all about gold called The Eternal Metal. On which note, The Secret History of Gold is out now. Got yours yet?The Secret History of Gold is available at Amazon, Waterstones and all good bookshops.Amazon is currently offering 20% off. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Your mid-week commentary is a day early this week because I am putting out a special film tomorrow all about everyone's favourite metal. Watch your inboxes.There is a shift of enormously significant proportions taking place. In magnitude it will prove as significant as Bretton Woods in 1944, when the dollar became the de facto global reserve currency, and the Nixon Shock of 1971, when the US abandoned the last vestiges of its gold standard.This shift is going to shape the global financial landscape over the next few years. You need to understand what is happening, so that you can position yourself and your family.You may even be able to profit handsomely from the transition.Today we explain US dollar policy: what is going on and, more importantly, where it is all going.Ready? Here goes.The Manufacturing Imperative and The Curse of the Reserve CurrencyAmerica wants to bring manufacturing back on shore. We all know this. US President Donald Trump has said it repeatedly, his VP JD Vance has said it, and so has his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who keeps reminding us that it is now time to prioritise Main Street over Wall Street.Part of the reshoring of US manufacturing involves tariffs, as we know all too well. Part of it involves weakening the US dollar to make US exports more competitive. Again Trump, Vance and Bessent have all said it.However, there is a problem, and that problem has a name: Triffin's Dilemma.You might think it's an advantage to issue the global reserve currency. You can issue dollars. Everyone else has to work for them. The French called it "America's exorbitant privilege." But this was a status the US engineered for itself during the Bretton Woods Agreement that determined the monetary order at the end of World War Two.What has happened, however, is that it has made the US fat and lazy, especially since 1971 when the US abandoned the ties of the dollar to gold.To supply the world with dollars, the US must run trade deficits. That is to say it must buy more than it sells. Persistent trade deficits have, over time, eroded its industrial base. Factories and jobs have gone offshore. Foreign nations have used their profits to invest in US capital markets and its debt. Meanwhile financial markets - aka Wall Street - have grown and grown, as America financialized.The Trump administration gets it in a way its predecessors did not. Vance has actually called the dollar's reserve status a "tax" on American producers.What's more, as this process has continued, the credibility of the dollar itself is being called further into doubt.Trump wants to revitalise America's Rust Belt. But there is more to it than that. As the curtains pulled back with Covid, the extent to which the US has been operating with its trousers down was exposed: an excessive dependence on China and its supply chains for too many strategically essential products, especially related to health, tech and the military. Then, during the Ukraine conflict, NATO found itself unable to match Russian production. The US, in short, is struggling to produce critical goods. It's why Trump keeps harping on about rare earth metals. It is vulnerable.The answer is to engineer a "managed decline" of the dollar as global reserve asset.The Golden Exit StrategyThis was already happening organically. China, for example, has been reducing its holdings of US treasuries for ten years now - quite gradually - although its US dollar holdings remain above $3 trillion.Meanwhile, China - and many other countries along the Silk Road besides - have been increasing their gold holdings, and quite dramatically. (In my view China has at least four times as much gold as it says it does. You can read more on this in my book). The process is known as de-dollarisation. Just a few months ago gold overtook the euro to become the second most held asset by central banks, while the dollar itself fell beneath 50% for the first time this century.We are not seeing a move towards any other national currency as global reserve, but towards the neutral but universal asset that is gold, as analyst Luke Groman points out. That suits all the main players. Gold is neutral, and both the US (supposedly) and China have lots of it.Indeed, a gold revaluation would be a "win-win" for both. A higher gold price would strengthen US fiscal flexibility while boosting Chinese consumers' wealth, encouraging domestic consumption and reducing trade imbalances.There is the potential to leverage the US's 261 million ounces (8,133 tonnes) of gold reserves, currently marked to market at just $42/oz. There are two ways this might be done. Economist Judy Shelton has proposed issuing Treasuries that are in part backed by gold to offset the inflation/debasement risk to make them more attractive to buyers. The other possibility (which has gone from, as Bessent put it, "we are not doing this" to "we are not doing this yet") is to revalue the gold from $42 to the current price of $3,300/oz, which would create over $850 billion of reserves without having to incur any extra debt. That would help with the US's current fiscal challenges: true interest expenses (including entitlements and veterans' affairs) currently exceed 100% of Treasury receipts.If you buying gold or silver coins to protect yourself in these “interesting times” - and I urge you to - as always I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.In short, the US administration is leaning into a weaker dollar and neutral reserve assets like gold to rebalance trade and rebuild domestic industry, even at the cost of short-term economic pain.Your really should subscribe.Bitcoin's Digital Advantage and The Stablecoin BridgeBitcoin, as the world's best neutral digital currency, is going to have a role to play in all of this as well.The US is quite happy with that, as evidenced by its pro-bitcoin rhetoric. At the national, corporate and individual levels the US has a lot of bitcoin. The US itself has 198,000 coins, the most of any nation, Strategy (NYSE:MSTR) has 630,000 and many other companies besides also hold, and at least 15% of US citizens own bitcoin. Of the eventual 21 million supply, of which probably 15% has been lost and another 1.3 million are locked up by Satoshi Nakamoto and will likely never appear (he is almost certainly dead), the US has a hefty chunk.Which brings us to the recent Genius Act. This effectively nixed CBDCs just as the EU's Christine Lagarde was planning to phase them in (LOL). However, it supported stablecoins (that is coins backed by dollars). The more bitcoin grows the more the stablecoin market will grow. As the stable coin market grows so will its demand for treasuries. Today, roughly half the entire US dollar stablecoin market, estimated at $250 billion, is invested in US treasuries (maybe 2% of the overall treasuries market). Tether is the world's 7th largest buyer.The market is small, but growing rapidly. 2035 projections include $500 billion (J.P.Morgan's projection) to $2 trillion (Standard Chartered) and $4 trillion (Bernstein) by 2035."If the stablecoin market meets these growth projections," says the Kansas City Fed, "it could lead to a substantial redistribution of funds within the financial system."In other words the stablecoin market is going to help the US fund its debt, just as other nations move away from treasuries to gold and bitcoin.Gold might suit the US, but bitcoin suits it better, especially if there are complications surrounding the Fort Knox gold, which it seems there are. Why no audit yet?Tell people about this.Gold vs Bitcoin, Analogue vs Digital: The Coming ShowdownIt's likely a few years from now there is going to be some sort of showdown between gold and bitcoin in the battle for primary reserve asset status. It's unlikely to be both. Governments will favour gold, as they have lots of it. Tradition is on their side. Eternal gold has a track record that is unrivalled. But it is an analogue asset in a digital world. Bitcoin is much more practical. Which will win out? Practical digital or impractical analogue?This is a contest that is still a way off. For now all roads lead to gold and bitcoin as the world de-dollarizes.Own both is what I say.Needless to say the UK is absolutely clueless in all of this, having sold two-thirds of its gold in 1999, made it near impossible for UK citizens to buy bitcoin, now planning to sell its bitcoin holdings, now the largest holder of US treasuries in the world after Japan and making no attempt to buy any gold.With the threat of AI and automation to America's jobs - especially in driving where millions work - there is the risk of mass unemployment coming quite quickly, and with it plentiful defaults on mortgages and loans. This could force the U.S. to print money, driving inflation and providing yet another reason to own gold and bitcoin, which cannot be debased.From October 8th, UK citizens will finally be able to buy bitcoin ETNs.I was lucky enough over the weekend to find myself as a house guest under the same roof as Interactive Investor CEO Richard Wilson. We talked a lot. He knows how landmark the date October 8th is for UK investors and has made sure II are well positioned in a way that other brokerages are not. You might not be able to buy the US ETFs due to FCA nonsense, but anything listed in the UK will be available. So if you don't already have an account at II you might do well to open an account now. Click this link and the first year is free.In short, the dollar will weaken significantly over the next three years. The pound is a basket case. National currencies are not stores of wealth. Gold and bitcoin are. Own both as the Trump administration addresses Triffin's Dilemma through a managed dollar decline. They will use gold and potentially bitcoin to restore US industrial and military strength.You have been warned.Tell people about this post.Watch your inboxes. Tomorrow I'll be putting out a 15-minute film all about gold called The Eternal Metal. On which note, The Secret History of Gold is out now. Got yours yet?The Secret History of Gold is available at Amazon, Waterstones and all good bookshops.Amazon is currently offering 20% off. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

The focus is on Jackson Hole, WY., ahead of U.S. Federal reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's keynote speech. The summit is overshadowed by political pressure over interest rates with policy makers divided over the forecast. Kansas City Fed chair Jeffrey Schmid tells CNBC a September rate cut is not set in stone. Wall Street is in the red with the S&P 500 suffering its longest losing streak since the start of the year as investor jitters over the A.I. outlook affect the world's biggest tech firms. Nvidia is set to cease production of its China-focused H20 chip as authorities cite security concerns and urge local tech firms to stop all purchases. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there are more tariff-deals being done, of the free trade type, but just not with the US and their mutually punitive style.In the US, jobless claims dipped last week, mainly on seasonal factors. There are now 2,016,000 people on these benefits, +5.3% more than the 1,914,000 on them this time last year.Sales of new single-family homes rose marginally in June from May's seven-month low to be well below what market expected. The number of unsold homes on the market rose to 511,000, the highest since October 2007 and now almost ten months of supply at the current sales pace.The July US S&P Markit factory PMI fell back into contraction which was very unexpected because a rise in the expansion was expected. However, this was masked by a strong rise in their service economy in July.The Kansas City Fed factory survey slipped back into contraction in July after its rare expansion in June. They reported increased factory activity but new order growth was weak and order backlogs fell sharply.In Canada, their advance estimate of retail sales suggests that sales increased +1.6% in June. That more than makes up for the -1.1% fall in May and is much better than the -0.3% fall expected.Meanwhile in Japan, the same S&P Global/Markit factory PMI unexpectedly contracted in July from June's 13-month high but minimal expansion. A small rise was expected.In India, they are starting to see rising international demand in their factory sector, and this pushed up their July factory PMI to a strong expansion.And India has signed a free trade deal with the UK, one touted to bring NZ$10 bln in mutual benefits.Also expected soon is a China-EU trade deal.In Europe, the eurozone PMI for July reported a further increase in business activity during the month, with the pace of expansion quickening to the fastest for almost a year amid a stabilisation of new orders. Output growth was at an 11 month high for them. Cost inflation is easing.Meanwhile, as expected the ECB rate review decision delivered no change. This effectively marks the end of its current easing cycle after eight cuts over the past year that brought borrowing costs to their lowest levels since November 2022. And don't forget, they remain in a tightening phase because they no longer reinvest maturing bonds issued during the pandemic emergency.In Australia, the S&P Global/Markit factory PMI expanded slightly faster in July, on the back of the sharpest overall rise in new business in over three years. This was despite export orders still contracting. The same report shows price pressures intensified, hinting at higher inflation in Australia in the coming months.And staying in Australia, research by the RBA shows that international students play a significant role in the Australian economy. They contribute to demand through their spending on goods and services and are an important source of labour for some Australian businesses. When there are large swings in international student numbers or when the economy has little spare capacity, this means that changing international student numbers can affect macroeconomic outcomes, particularly in sectors of the economy where supply cannot respond quickly. The rapid growth in international student numbers post-pandemic likely contributed to high inflation over this period, but was not a major driver. But they do push up rents.Container freight rates dropped another -3% last week to be -57% lower than year-ago levels, although to be fair the year-ago levels were unusually high. Outbound rates from China to the US are the weakest routes at present. But bulk cargo rates rose another +11% over the past week to be +13% higher than year-ago levelsThe UST 10yr yield is now at 4.41%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,369/oz, down -US$18 from yesterday.American oil prices are marginally firmer at just under US$65.50/bbl but the international Brent price is still at just on US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.4 USc and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we have dipped -10 bps to 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 51.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.8, up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,232 and up +1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Hoover Institution fellow Jon Hartley and former FDIC Vice Chair Thomas Hoenig discuss Tom's career as an economist, as Vice Chair of the FDIC, President of the Kansas City Fed, topics including the global financial crisis, banking regulation, Glass-Steagall, Too Big To Fail, moral hazard, lender of last resort powers, Basel III, the Dodd-Frank Act, capital requirements, deposit insurance after the Silicon Valley Bank regional banking crisis, and quantitative easing. Recorded on June 10, 2025. ABOUT THE SERIES: Each episode of Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century, a video podcast series and the official podcast of the Hoover Economic Policy Working Group, focuses on getting into the weeds of economics, finance, and public policy on important current topics through one-on-one interviews. Host Jon Hartley asks guests about their main ideas and contributions to academic research and policy. The podcast is titled after Milton Friedman‘s famous 1962 bestselling book Capitalism and Freedom, which after 60 years, remains prescient from its focus on various topics which are now at the forefront of economic debates, such as monetary policy and inflation, fiscal policy, occupational licensing, education vouchers, income share agreements, the distribution of income, and negative income taxes, among many other topics. For more information about the podcast, visit: https://www.hoover.org/podcast/capitalism-and-freedom?utm_source=podbean&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=cf21_podcast

In this May 2025 edition of Trends in 10, Andy Campbell breaks down what equipment dealers and ag professionals need to know right now. From tightening lending conditions and rising operating loan volumes to volatile corn market projections and policy developments affecting ethanol, this episode covers it all. Andy digs into updated data from the Kansas City Fed and Purdue, reviews shifts in used equipment values (especially in the HHP tractor and combine categories), and explores why 2025 might signal a return to a “new normal” in farm capital investment.

Well, we have a new US Presidential Administration with a very different economic strategy than its predecessor. The president has already started vocally demanding the Federal Reserve be more aggressive in lowering interest rates. And he's appointed a new head, Scott Bessent, at the US Treasury, replacing Janet Yellen. What should we expect from the policies this Administration intends to pursue? Will Jerome Powell march to the President's demands? Or will he flex to assert the Fed's independence? And where does inflation figure into all of this? For a true expert's informed perspective on these very important questions, we have the great privilege today of speaking with Dr Thomas Hoenig, former CEO of the Kansas City Fed, former voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, a former director of the FDIC, and now a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center. BUY YOUR TICKET ATTHE EARLY BIRD PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

Former Kansas City Fed President Esther George discusses how the US Presidential Election outcome will affect Fed policy going forward. She speaks with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former Kansas City Fed President Esther George weighed in on the labor market and Fed rate strategy. George spoke to Bloomberg Television's Sonali Basak, Matt Miller, and Katie Greifeld at the Citadel Securities Global Macro Conference in New York Wednesday.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Last week in his much-anticipated speech at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced the "time has come for policy to adjust". World markets now have a 100% probability expectation that the Federal Funds Rate will be cut at the upcoming September meeting. In the words of Nick Timiraos, chief economist for the Wall Street Journal and suspected media mouthpiece for the Federal Reserve, "The Powell pivot is complete". Is that indeed the case? And if so, what should we expect from here from the speed and depth of rate cuts? What will the expected impacts be on the economy? And which ones will be felt soon, and which perhaps not for quarters from now? And lastly, is this the correct policy move the Fed should be pursuing? For a true expert's informed perspective on these very important questions, we have the great privilege today of speaking with Dr Thomas Hoenig, former CEO of the Kansas City Fed, former voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, a former director of the FDIC, and now a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center. Follow Dr Hoenig at https://www.discoursemagazine.com/ or https://www.finregrag.com/ WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

 Former Kansas City Fed Governor Esther George  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The St. Louis Fed's Matuschka Lindo Briggs, senior vice president and regional executive of the Little Rock Branch, and Chad Wilkerson, senior vice president and Oklahoma City Branch executive for the Kansas City Fed, discuss their insights on the Arkansas and Oklahoma regional economies.

The Federal Reserve is one of, if not the most, significant institutions in the world given the global impact of its policy decisions. It influences the price of nearly everything, as well as the availability of jobs, the stability of our banking system, and the purchasing power of our money. When the Fed Chair speaks, the entire world stops to listen. But the average person has a poor understanding of how this colossally important entity operates or even why it exists. And after a series of asset price bubbles -- which some argue we're in another one now -- a chorus skeptical of the Fed's actions has emerged. So today we're doing our best to shine as bright a light as possible on the Fed: how & why it operates, the good & as well as the shortcomings of its actions to date, what direction its policies are likely to take from here, and how all of this impacts the households of regular people like you and me We have the great privilege of speaking today with Thomas Hoenig, former CEO of the Kansas City Fed, former voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, a former director of the FDIC, and now a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center. Follow Dr. Hoenig at https://substack.com/profile/131926993-thomas-hoenig WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #federalreserve #inflation #money

The former Kansas City Fed president talks about the persistence of inflation, when the central bank is likely to lower interest rates, how worried she is about office CRE, the lessons from the failures of three regional banks last year, whether she supports a central bank digital currency, and the future of community banks.

Agricultural credit conditions in the Kansas City Fed's Tenth District softened during the third quarter of 2023.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At Jackson Hole, the Kansas City Fed's annual gathering for economists and central bankers, there's a lot of focus on the short-term path of monetary policy. But, of course, the Economic Symposium is supposed to be about long-term policy frameworks. And central bankers aren't just responsible for changing benchmark interest rates — they are also financial regulators. On this episode, we speak with Hyun Song Shin, economic advisor and head of research at the Bank for International Settlements, about where he sees risks lurking in the financial system now. We discuss the shift from bank lending to bond-based borrowing, and what it means for inflation now. We talk about how even safe assets like US Treasuries can become sources of stress, such as in March 2020, the gilt crisis of last year, and most recently, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. We also talk about how higher interest rates are supposed to bring down inflation, but might not be doing that much currently, as well as the limits of central banking.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending August 26th, 2023… tough talk on inflation from the Fed Chief, when and why we might see a surge in home prices, and what Texas is doing to manage a booming economy north of Dallas.   We begin with economic news from this past week and comments from Fed Chief Jerome Powell. He delivered the keynote address at the Kansas City Fed's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. He reiterated previous sentiments about making progress on inflation, but says it's still too high and the central bank plans to “keep at it until the job is done.” He said: “We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective” – which is 2%...    ...The North Texas area is becoming a global technology hub as semiconductor companies move into the area. That's creating tens of thousands of jobs, and with all those jobs, a surge in housing demand. We are capitalizing on this opportunity at RealWealth with a North Dallas Rental Fund for accredited investors. You can find out more about this fund at growdevelopments.com.   That's it for today. You can listen to past episodes and check for links to our news sources at newsforinvestors.com. You can also sign up for a free RealWealth membership while you are there to learn more about how and where to invest in real estate. And please remember to subscribe to this podcast, and leave a review!   Thanks for listening! Kathy Fettke   Follow Kathy on Instagram at: https://www.instagram.com/kathyfettke/ Purchase Kathy's audiobook on Audible at: https://tinyurl.com/retirerichaudible   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-unsure-of-the-need-to-tighten-further-b43a9d18?mod=federal-reserve   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-drop-to-3-week-low-of-230-000-still-no-sign-of-rising-u-s-layoffs-1f1411f6?mod=economic-report   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-home-sales-fall-in-july-as-rates-rise-and-listings-fall-33b79a54?mod=economic-report   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-new-homes-sales-rise-4-4-in-july-533ab184?mod=economic-report   5 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   6 - https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/housing-market-outlook-recession-home-prices-mortgage-rates-fannie-mae-2023-8   7 - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/house-prices-wont-fall-ndash-195516944.html   8 - https://www.rentcafe.com/blog/rental-market/market-snapshots/new-apartment-construction/ 9 - https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2023/08/18/txdot-greg-abbott-115-billion.html

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave a very middle of the road speech last week at the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole symposium. The leader of the central bank acknowledged that tightening monetary policy has had its desired impact on inflation, but also warned that inflation may come back, thus warranting further interest rate increases. He neither suggested nor refuted that another interest rate hike would be needed, and the Fed will continue to monitor pertinent economic data before making their next policy decision in a few weeks. Two key data points they will be monitoring will be the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) and second quarter Gross Domestic Product, both of which will be released this week. The PCE index is the Fed's preferred inflation indicator and as of June measured 3.0% growth on an annual basis, just at the top end of the Fed's ideal range.Apartment performance continues to decline modestly at the national level. Rents are falling on a week-over-week basis, and leading indicators including traffic and leasing are either flat or negative from week to week. Interestingly occupancy has increased by the smallest of margins in each of the past two weeks, however the slight growth is not enough to indicate a longer-term trend in my opinion. With roughly four months remaining in 2023, key operating metrics will likely continue to soften, but the overall housing shortage and the increasing cost of home ownership will protect our industry from any major declines. Market-by-market weakness will be apparent as new supply is delivered and absorbed.Explore our Research webpage for more insights and resources: https://bit.ly/RadixResearch.

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.Economists will be focused more on the qualitative information coming out this week than the quantitative data being released. The Kansas City Fed hosts its annual symposium in Jackson Hole, and Chair Jerome Powell will be delivering the keynote address on Friday. Ahead of the meeting, three other Fed governors are expected to give speeches on Tuesday. While it is unlikely the leaders of the Fed will share explicit information regarding upcoming monetary policy changes, their tone and language should provide insight into additional rate hikes or the end of monetary tightening. The 10-year treasury rate, which typically follows the market's view of intermediate to long-term inflation, has been rising rapidly in the past few weeks. It currently sits at its highest yield since 2007. The multifamily market continued its moderation last week. Net effective rent fell 10 basis points last week, the second consecutive week of rent declines at the national level. This marks the first back-to-back NER drop since last December. Occupancy increased ever so slightly, rising one basis point last week. Nationwide occupancy remains almost a full percentage point below its level from this time last year. Traffic and leasing remain stable as the third quarter progresses.  Explore our Research webpage for more insights and resources: https://bit.ly/RadixResearch.

For the first time, credit card debt in the U.S. has hit $1 trillion. The record was hit thanks to a combination of inflation, high interest rates and Gen Z confidence. Plus, the Biden administration is expected to restrict U.S. firms from investing in certain kinds of China-based tech. We’ll also discuss diversity at a major upcoming economic conference. Update (8/9/23): The story about diversifying the Kansas City Fed's Economic Policy Symposium has been updated to accurately reflect Boston Fed President Susan Collins’ involvement. For more information, check out the story on marketplace.org.

For the first time, credit card debt in the U.S. has hit $1 trillion. The record was hit thanks to a combination of inflation, high interest rates and Gen Z confidence. Plus, the Biden administration is expected to restrict U.S. firms from investing in certain kinds of China-based tech. We’ll also discuss diversity at a major upcoming economic conference. Update (8/9/23): The story about diversifying the Kansas City Fed's Economic Policy Symposium has been updated to accurately reflect Boston Fed President Susan Collins’ involvement. For more information, check out the story on marketplace.org.

The S&P 500 was on its way to a fifth consecutive “decision day” gain this afternoon – until a unanimous Federal Open Market Committee confirmed the market's 100%-priced-in expectation of a 75-basis-point increase to the federal funds rate target range but firmly underscored its hawkish tone. Stocks turned red and yields surged at 2:00 p.m. ET, as the FOMC's “dot plot” suggested another 125 basis points of rate hikes over its last two meetings in 2022 and further tightening well into 2023. Reiterating that it's “highly attentive to inflation risks” and that it “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” the Fed also lowered its growth forecast for the year. Real Vision's Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Joseph “The Fed Guy” Wang for today's Daily Briefing to talk about Fed policy – looking back and going forward – and what it means for risk assets. We also hear from Thomas Hoenig, who led the Kansas City Fed for 20 years, about the risks “quantitative tightening” presents to the global financial system. Watch the full conversation featuring Thomas Hoenig and Harry Melandri here: https://f.io/fd0SmXxX. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices