Podcasts about molotov ribbentrop pact

Hey guys, what you are about to listen to is basically a “what if” Japan performed Hokushin-ron instead of Nanshin-ron, ie: What if Japan invaded the USSR during WW2? Before I jump into it I just want to thank all of you that signed up for the patreon, you guys are awesome. Please leave a comment on this episode to let me know what more you want to hear about in the future. With all of that said and done lets jump right into it.   Part 1 The Geopolitical context   Ok so, one of the questions I get the most is, what if Japan invaded the USSR. I've actually already tackled this subject, albeit lightly with Cody from AlternatehistoryHub and once with my friend Eric. Its too complicated to give a real answer, a lot of this is guess work, though I really will try to provide hard numbers. I think off the bat something needs to be made clear since we are dealing with alternate history. I am not doing a “what if Japan developed completely different, or what if the IJA got their way in the early 1930's” no no, this is going to be as realistic as possible…even though this is batshit crazy.    Japan faced the decision of whether to go to war with the USSR in 1941 during Operation Barbarossa. They held meetings, made plans, and ultimately it was decided they would not engage the Soviets. Our scenario will follow exactly what they did to a T, but when the made the decision not to go to war, we will see them go to war.    Now before I jump into our this timeline, I think its very important to explain the actual situation Japan faced in 1941. There were two major strategies that emerged during the 1930's within the Japanese military. Many junior officers in the IJA favored the Hokushin-ron “northern strike” strategy against the USSR. Many officers in the IJN with some in the IJA favored the Nanshin-ron “southern strike” strategy, to seize the resource rich dutch east indies by invading Southeast Asia and the Pacific. The idea of Hokushin-ron was to perform an invasion into Southern Siberia and outer mongolia ending around Lake Baikal where they would set up defenses. They had already tried to establish this during the Russian civil war as part of the Siberian Intervention, but failed to create a buffer state. From 1935-1939 there were 108 border clashes between the USSR and Japan. In 1938 one of these border clashes turned into quite a catastrophe, it was called the battle of Lake Khasan.  The Soviets suffered nearly 800 deaths, more than 3000 wounded, perhaps nearly 50 tanks were destroyed with another 100 damaged. The Japanese suffered about 600 deaths with 2500 wounded. The result ultimately was a ceasefire, but for the Kwantung army it seemed to them like a victory. In May of 1939 they had a much larger and more famous battle known as the battle of Khalkhin Gol.  During the early part of the battle the IJA sent 80 tanks crossing over Khalkhin Gol, driving the Soviets back towards Baintsagan Hill. Zhukov was waiting for the attack and sent 450 tanks and armored cars unsupported by infantry to attack the IJA from three sides. The IJA were practically encircled and lost half their armored units as they struggled to fight back as it withdrew. The two armies spared for the next 2 weeks along the east bank of the Khalkhin Gol. Problem was the Japanese were having issues getting their supplies to the area as they lacked motor transport while Zhukov whose army was over 460 miles away from its base of supply had 2600 trucks supplying them. On july 23rd the Japanese launched attacks supported by artillery and within two days they had consumed half their ammunition stores. The situation was terrible, they suffered 5000 casualties and made little progress breaking the Soviet lines. Zhukov then unleashed an offensive on august 20th using over 4000 trucks to transport supplies from Chita base. He assembled around 500 tanks, 550 fighters and bombers and his 50,000 infantry supported by armored cars. This mechanized force attacked the Japanese first using artillery and the aircraft as his armor and infantry crossed the river. The IJA were quickly flanked by the fast moving Soviet armor and encircled by August 25th. The IJA made attempts to break out of the encirclement but failed. They refused to surrender despite overwhelming artillery and aerial bombardment; by the 31st the Japanese forces on the Mongolian side of the border were destroyed. The Japanese suffered nearly 20,000 casualties, the lost 162 aircraft, 29 tanks, 7 tankettes, 72 artillery pieces a large number of vehicles. The Soviets took a heavy hit also suffering almost 25,000 casualties, 250 aircraft, 250 tanks, 133 armored cars, almost 100 artillery pieces, hundreds of vehicles. While these numbers make it seem the Japanese did a great job, you need to consider what each party was bringing to this fight. The Japanese brought roughly 30,000 men, 80 tanks and tankettes, 400 aircraft, 300 artillery pieces, 1000 trucks. The Soviets brought nearly 75,000 men, 550 tanks, 900 aircraft, 634 artillery pieces, 4000 trucks. There are some sources that indicate the IJA brought as many artillery rounds as they could muster from Japan, Manchuria and Korea, roughly 100,000 rounds for the operation. The Soviets fired 100,000 rounds per day. A quick look at wikipedia numbers, yes I know its a no no, but sometimes its good for quick perspectives show: USSR: Bomber sorties 2,015, fighter sorties 18,509; 7.62 mm machine gun rounds fired 1,065,323; 20 mm (0.80 in) cannon rounds expended 57,979; bombs dropped 78,360 (1,200 tons). Japan: Fighter/bomber sorties 10,000 (estimated); 7.7 mm (0.30 in) machine gun rounds fired 1.6 million; bombs dropped 970 tons. What I am trying to say is there was an enormous disparity in military production. And this is not just limited to numbers but quality. After the battle the Japanese made significant reforms. They increased tank production from 500 annually to 1200. The Japanese funded research into new anti-tank guns, such as the Type 1 47 mm. They mounted this gun to their Type 97 Chi-Ha tanks, the new standard medium tank of the IJA. Because of the tremendous defeat to Soviet armor they send General Yamashita to Germany to learn everything he could about tank tactics. But they simply could not produce enough tanks to ever hope to match 10% of the USSR. The Soviets had mostly been using T-26's, BT-5's and BT-7's who were crudely made, but made en masse. The Japanese would find most of their tank models with less effective range, less armor and some with less penetration power. It took the Japanese a hell of a lot more time to produce tanks, they were simply not on par with the Soviets in quantity or quality. Their tank tactics, albeit improved via Yamashita after 1939, were still nothing compared to the Soviets.  The major outcome of the battle of Lake Khasan and Khalkhin Gol was the abandonment of the hokushin-ron strategy and adoption of the nanshin-ron strategy. But, that didnt mean Japan did not have a plan in case they had to go to war with the USSR. Part 2 Kantōgun Tokushu Enshū Kantōgun Tokushu Enshū or the Kwantung Army Special Maneuvers was an operational plan created by the General Staff of the IJA for an invasion of the Russian Far East to capitalize on Operation Barbarossa. Here our story truly begin. Between 1938-1939 the IJA General Staff and Kwantung Army formed two “Hachi-Go” plans. Variants A and B examined the possibility of an all out war with the USSR beginning in 1943. In both plans they expected to be facing 60 Soviet divisions, while they could deliver 50 divisions, delivered incrementally from China and Japan. Plan A called for attacks across the eastern and northern borders of Manchuria while maintaining a defensive stance in the west. Plan B, much more ambitious, called for striking into the vast steppe between the Great Khingan Mountains and Lake Baikal, hoping to cut off the trans-siberian railway. If this was done successfully it was believed the whole of European Russia would be doomed to be defeated in detail. Defeated in detail means to divide and conquer. This battle would take place over 5000 kilometers with Japan's final objective being to advance 1200 km into the USSR. That dwarves Operation Barbarossa in distance, let that sink in. Both plans faced impossible odds. First of all the railway networks in Manchuria were not sufficiently expanded for such far reaching offensives, especially for plan B. Furthermore the 50 divisions required for them would be impossible to come by, since 1937 Japan was bogged down in a war with China. When Japan went to war with the west in 1941 she had 51 divisions. She left the base minimum in China, 35 divisions and tossed nearly 20 into southeast asia and the pacific. On top of not having the men, the IJA estimated a fleet of 200,000 vehicles would be necessary to sustain an offensive to Lake Baikal. That was twice the number of military vehicles Japan had at any given time. After the battle of Khalkhin Gol, plan B was completely abandoned. Planning henceforth focused solely on the northern and eastern fronts with any western advance being limited in scope. Now Japan formed a neutrality pact with the USSR because of her defeat at Khalkhin Gol and Molotov Ribbentrop pact between Germany and the USSR. The Molotov Ribbentrop Pact came as a bitter and complete surprise to Japan. It pushed Japan to fully adopt the Nanshin-ron strategy and this began with her invasion of French IndoChina, which led the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and United States to embargo her. The Netherlands Dutch East Indies refused to sell oil to Japan, the UK refused to sell oil from Burma and the US gradually cut off selling oil to Japan, with her oil exports alone being 80% of Japans supply, the rest from the Dutch east indies. The United States also placed an embargo on scrap-metal shipments to Japan and closed the Panama Canal to Japanese shipping. 74.1% of Japan's scrap iron came from the United States in 1938, and 93% of Japan's copper in 1939. Other things like Rubber and tin were also off the table, as this was mostly acquired from British held Malaya and the Dutch East Indies.    Now the crux of everything is the China War. Japan was stuck, she needed to win, in order to win she needed the resources she was being denied. The only logical decision was to attack the places with these resources. Thus until 1941, Japan prepared to do just that, investing in the Navy primarily. Then in June of 1941, Hitler suddenly informs the Japanese that he is going to invade the USSR. The Japanese were shocked and extremely angry, they nearly left the Tripartite Pact over the issue. This unprecedented situation that ushered in the question, what should Japan do? There were those like Foreign Minister Yosuke Matsuoka who argued they must abandon the neutrality pact and launch a simultaneous offensive with the Germans against the USSR. The IJA favored this idea….because obviously it would see them receiving more funding as the IJN was currently taking more and more of it for the Nanshin-ron plans. But this is not a game of hearts of Iron IV, the Japanese government had to discuss and plan if they would invade the USSR….and boy it took awhile. I think a lot of you will be very disappointed going forward, but there is no grand unleashing of a million Japanese across the borders into the Soviet Far East, in the real world there is something called logistics and politics.    The Japanese military abided by a flexible response policy, like many nations do today. Theres was specifically called the Junbi Jin Taisei or “preparatory formation setup”. Japan would only go to war with the USSR if favorable conditions were met. So in our timeline the Junbi Jin encountered its first test on June 24th when the IJA/IJN helped a conference in the wake of operation barbarossa. A compromise was made allowing the IJA to prepare an invasion plan if it did not impede on the nanshin-ron plans. There was those in the IJA who argued they should invade the USSR whether conditions were favorable or not, there were those who only wanted to invade if it looked like the USSR was on the verge of collapse. One thing agreed upon was if Japan unleashed a war with the USSR, the hostilities needed to be over by mid-October because the Siberian climate would hit winter and it would simply be impossible to continue. The IJA needed 60-7 days to complete operational preparations and 6-8 weeks to defeat the Soviets within the first phase of the offensive. Here is a breakdown of what they were thinking: 28 June: Decide on mobilization 5 July: Issue mobilization orders 20 July: Begin troop concentration 10 August: Decide on hostilities 24 August: Complete readiness stance 29 August: Concentrate two divisions from North China in Manchuria, bringing the total to 16 5 September: Concentrate four further divisions from the homeland, bringing the total to 22; complete combat stance 10 September (at latest): Commence combat operations 15 October: Complete first phase of war   The plan called for 22 divisions (might I add my own calculations of 20 divisions were pretty spot on), with roughly 850,000 men, including Manchukuo allies, supported by 800,000 tons of shipping. The Japanese hoped the Soviets would toss at least half their forces in the Far East, perhaps 2/3rd of their armor and aircraft against the Germans giving them a 2-1 superiority. Even the 22 divisions was questionable, many in the war ministry thought only 16 divisions could be spared for such a venture, something only suitable for mop up operations in the aftermath of a German victory along the eastern front. It was clear to all, Japan needed perfect conditions to even think about performing such a thing.    The War hawks who still sought to perform Hokushin-ron tried to persaude Hideki Tojo on july 5th to go through with a new plan using a total of 25 divisions. This plan designated “Kantogun Tokushu Enshu or Kantokuen” would involve 2 phases, a buildup and readiness phase and an offensive phase. On July 7th they went to Hirohito for his official sanction for the build up. Hirohito questioned everything, but gradually relented to it. The plan was nearly identical to the former plans, banking on the Soviets being unable to reinforce the Far East because of Germany's progress. The level of commitment was scaled down somewhat, but still enormous. Again a major looming issue was the Manchurian railways that would need to be expanded to accomodate the movement of men and supplies. This meant the construction of port facilities, military barracks, hospitals and such. Kantokuen would begin with a initial blow against the Ussuri front, targeting Primorye and would be followed up by a northern attack against Blagoveshchensk and Kuibyshevka. The 1st area army, 3rd and 20 armies with the 19th division of the Korean army would penetrade the border south of Lake Khanka to breach the main soviet defensive lines, thus threatening Vladivostok. The 5th army would strike south of Dalnerechensk to complete the isolation of the maritime province, sever the trans-sierian railway and block Soviet reinforcements. The 4th army would attack along the Amur river before helping out against Blagoveshchensk. Two reinofrced divisions would invade Sakhalin from land and sea. The second phase would see the capture of Khabarovsk, Komsomolsk, Skovorodino, Sovetskaya Gavan, and Nikolayevsk. Additionally, amphibious operations against Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and other parts of the Kamchatka Peninsula were contemplated.   It was agreed the operation could only afford 24 divisions, with 1,200,000 men, 35,000 vehicles, 500 tanks, 400,000 horses and 300,000 coolies. The deployment of thse forces would mean the western front facing Mongolia and the Trans-baikal region would be pretty much open, so delaying actions would have to be fought if the soviets performed a counter offensive there. Air forces were critical to the plan. They sought to dispatch up to roughly 2000 aircraft cooperating with 350 naval aircraft to launch a sudden strike against the Soviet Far East Air Force to knock them out early.    The Soviet Far East had two prominent weaknesses to be exploited. Number 1 was Mongolia's 4500 km long horeshoe shaped border. Number 2 was its 100% dependency on European Russia to deliver men, food and war materials via the trans-siberian railway. Any disruption of the trans-siberian railway would prove fatal to the Soviet Far East.    Now as for the Soviets. The 1930's and early 1940's saw the USSR take up a defensive policy, but retained offensive elecments as well. Even with the German invasion and well into 1942, the Soviets held a strategy of tossing back the IJA into Manchuria if attacked. The primary forces defending the Far east in 1941 were the Far Eastern and Trans-Baikal Fronts, under the command of Generals Iosif Apanasenko and Mikhail Kovalyov. The Trans-Baikal front held 9 divisions, including 2 armored, a mechanized brigade and a heavily fortified region west of the Oldoy River near Skovorodino had a garrison. The Far Eastern Front had 23 divisions including 3 armored, 4 brigades and 11 heavily fortified regions with garrisons including Vladivostok. Altogether they had 650,000 men, 5400 tanks, 3000 aircraft, 57,000 vehicles, 15,000 artillery pieces and nearly 100,000 horses. By 1942 the Vladivostok sector had 150 artillery pieces with 75 -356 mm calibers organized into 50 batteries. As you can imagine after Operation Barbarrosa was unleashed, things changed. From June to December, roughly 160,000 men, 3000 tanks, 2670 artillery pieces, 12,000 vehicles and perhaps 1800 aircraft were sent to deal with the Germans. Despite this, the Soviets also greatly expanded a buildup to match the apparent Japanese buildup in Manchuria. By July 22nd 1941 the Far Eastern and Trans-Baikal Fronts were to be raised by 1 million men for august. By December it was nearly 1.2 million. Even the Soviet Far East Navy saw an increase from 100,000 men to 170,000 led by Admiral Yumashev. The Soviet Mongolian allies were capable of manning about 80,000, though they lacked heavy equipment.    Thus if this war broke out in September the Soviets and Mongolians would have just over a million men, with 2/3rds of them manning the Amur-Ussuri-Sakhalin front, the rest would defend Mongolia and the Trans-Baikal region. Even though the war against the Germans was dire, the Soviets never really gave up their prewar planning for how to deal with the Japanese. There would be an all-out defense over the border to prevent any breach of Soviet territory. The main effort would see the 1st and 25th armies holding a north-south axis between the Pacific ocean and Lake Khanka; the 35th army would defend Iman; the 15th and 2nd Red Banner armies would repel the Japanese over the Amur River; and other forces would try to hold out on Sakhalin, Kamchatka and the Pacific coast. The Soviets had constructed hundreds of fortified positions known as Tochkas along the border. Most of these were hexagonal concrete bunkers contained machine gun nests and 76 mm guns. The fortified regions I mentioned were strategically placed forcing the Japanese to overcome them via frontal attacks. This would require heavy artillery to overcome. Despite the great defensive lines, the Soviets did not intend to be passive and would launch counteroffensives. The Soviet air force and Navy would play an active role in defeating a Japanese invasion as well. The air force's objetice would be to destroy the Japanese air force in the air and on the ground, requiring tactical ground attack mission. They would also destroy key railways, bridges and airfields within Manchuria and Korea alongside intercepting IJN shipping. Strategic bombing against the home islands would be limited to under 30 DB-3's who could attack Tokyo, Yokosuka, Maizuru and Ominato. The Soviet Navy would help around the mouth of the Amur River, mine the Tatar Strait and try to hit any IJN ships landing men or materials across the Pacific Coasts.    Japan would not be able to continue a land war with the USSR for very long. According to Japanese military records, in 1942 while at war they were required to produce 50 Kaisenbun. A Kaisenbun is a unit of measurement for ammunition needed for a single division to operate for 4 months. Annual production never surpassed 25 kaisenbun with 100 in reserve. General Shinichi Tanaka estimated for an operation against the USSR 3 Kaisenbun would be needed per divisions, thus a total of 72 would be assigned to 24 divisions. This effectively meant 2/3rds of Japans ammunition stockpile would be used on the initial strike against the USSR. Japan would have been extremely hard pressed to survive such a war cost for 2 years.    Now in terms of equipment Japan had a lot of problems. During the border battles, Japanese artillery often found itself outranged and grossly under supplied compared to the Soviet heavier guns. Despite moving a lot of men and equipment to face the Germans, the Red Army maintained a gross superiority in armor. The best tank the Kwantung Army had in late 1941 was the Type 97 Chi-Ha, holding 33mm armor with a low velocity 57 mm gun. There was also Ha-Go and Te-Ke's with 37 mm guns but they had an effective range less than 1 km.   The Soviet T-26, BT-5 and BT-7's had 45 mm guns more than capable of taking out the Japanese armor and the insult to injury was they were crudely made and very expendable. Every Japanese tank knocked out was far greater a loss, as Japan's production simply could not remotely match the USSR. For aircraft the Japanese were a lot better off. The Polikarpov I-16 was the best Soviet fighter in the Far East and performed alright against the Nakajima Ki-27 at Khalkhin Gol. The rest of the Soviet air arsenal were much older and would struggle. The Soviets would have no answer to the IJN's Zero fighter or the IJA's high speed KI-21 bomber that outraced the Soviet SB-2. Japanese pilots were battle hardened by China and vastly experienced.   Another thing the Japanese would have going for them was quality of troops. The Soviets drained their best men to fight the Germans, so the combat effectiveness in the far east would be less. Without the Pacific War breaking out, some of Japan's best Generals would be brought into this war, of course the first one that comes to mind for me is General Yamashita, probably the most armor competent Japanese general of ww2.    Come August of 1941 those who still sought the invasion of the USSR were facing major crunch time. The IJA planners had assumed the Soviets would transfer 50% or more of their power west to face the Germans, but this was not the case. By August 9th of 1941, facing impossible odds and with the western embargos in full motion, in our timeline the Japanese Hokushin-Ron backers gave up. But for the sake of our story, for some batshit insane reason, the Japanese military leadership and Hirohito give the greenlight for an invasion on August 10th.   Part 3 the catastrophe   So to reiterate the actual world plan had    10 August: Decide on hostilities 24 August: Complete readiness stance 29 August: Concentrate two divisions from North China in Manchuria, bringing the total to 16 5 September: Concentrate four further divisions from the homeland, bringing the total to 22; complete combat stance 10 September (at latest): Commence combat operations 15 October: Complete first phase of war   So what is key to think about here is the events of September. The Battle for Moscow is at the forefront, how does a Japanese invasion in the first week or two of September change things? This is going to probably piss off some of you, but Operation Typhoon would still fail for Germany.  In our time line the legendary spy Richard Sorge sent back information on Japan's decision to invade the USSR between August 25th to September 14th. On the 25th he informed Stalin the Japanese high command were still discussing whether to go to war or not with the USSR. On September 6th Stalin was informed the Japanese were beginning preparations for a war against the west. Then on September 14th, the most important message was relayed to Stalin "In the careful judgment of all of us here... the possibility of [Japan] launching an attack, which existed until recently, has disappeared...."[15]    With this information on hand from 23 June to 31 December 1941, Stalin transferred a total of 28 divisions west. This included 18 rifle divisions, 1 mountain rifle division, 3 tank divisions, 3 mechanized divisions and 3 mountain cavalry divisions. The transfers occurred mainly in June (11 divisions) and October (9 divisions).    Here we come to a crossroads and I am going to have to do some blunt predictions. Let's go from the most optimistic to the most pessimistic. Scenario 1) for some insane reason, Stalin abandons Moscow and moves his industry further east, something the Soviets were actively preparing during Operation Typhoon. This is not a defeat of the USSR, it certainly would prolong the war, but not a defeat. Now that seems rather silly. Scenario 2) Stalin attempts transferring half of what he did in our time line back to Moscow and the Germans fail to take it. The repercussions of course is a limited counteroffensive, it wont be as grand as in our timeline, but Moscow is saved. Scenario 3) and the most likely in my opinion, why would Stalin risk moscow for the Far East? Stalin might not transfer as many troops, but certainly he would have rather placed his chips in Moscow rather than an enemy literally 6000 km's away who have to cross a frozen desert to get to anything he cares about.  Even stating these scenarios, the idea the German army would have taken Moscow if some of the very first units from the far east arrived, because remember a lot of these units did not make it in time to defend moscow, rather they contributed to the grand counteroffensive after the Germans stalled. The German armies in front of Moscow were depleted, exhausted, unsupplied and freezing. Yes many of the Soviet armies at Moscow were hastily thrown together, inexperienced, poorly led and still struggling to regain their balance from the German onslaught. Yet from most sources, and by sources I mean armchair historian types argue, the Germans taking Moscow is pretty unlikely. And moscow was not even that important. What a real impact might have been was the loss of the Caucasus oil fields in early 1942, now that could have brought the USSR down, Moscow, not so much, again the Soviets had already pulled their industry further east, they could do it again.   So within the context of this Second Russo-Japanese War, figure the German's still grind to a halt, they don't take Moscow, perhaps Soviets dont push them back as hard, but the USSR is not collapsing by any means. Ok now before we talk about Japans invasion we actually need to look at some external players. The UK/US/Netherlands already began massive embargoes against Japan for oil, iron, rubber, tin, everything she needed to continue her war, not just against the USSR, but with over 35 divisions fighting in China. President Roosevelt was looking for any excuse to enter WW2 and was gradually increasing ways to aid Britain and the Soviets.  Now American's lend-lease program seriously aided the USSR during WW2, particularly the initial stages of the war. The delivery of lend-lease to the USSR came through three major routes: the Arctic Convoys, the Persian Corridor, and the Pacific Route. The Arctic route was the shortest and most direct route for lend-lease aid to the USSR, though it was also the most dangerous as it involved sailing past German-occupied Norway. Some 3,964,000 tons of goods were shipped by the Arctic route; 7% was lost, while 93% arrived safely. The Persian Corridor was the longest route, and was not fully operational until mid-1942. Thereafter it saw the passage of 4,160,000 tons of goods, 27% of the total. The most important was the Pacific Route which opened up in August of 1941, but became affected when Japan went to war with America. The major port was Vladivostok, where only Soviet ships could transport non-military goods some 8,244,000 tons of goods went by this route, 50% of the total. Vladivostok would almost certainly be captured by the Japanese in our scenario so it won't be viable after its capture. Here is the sticky part, Japan is not at war with the US, so the US is pretty much free to find different Pacific paths to get lend-lease to the Soviets, and to be honest there's always the Arctic or Persian corridors. Hell in this scenario America will be able to get supplies easily into China as there will be no war in Burma, hong kong, Malaya and such. America alone is going to really ruin Japans day by increasing lend-lease to the UK, China and the USSR. America wont be joining the war in 1941, but I would strongly wager by hook or by crook, FDR would pull them into a war against Germany, probably using the same tactic Woodrow Wilson did with WW1. This would only worsen things for Japan. Another player of course is China. Late 1941, China was absolutely battered by Japan. With Japan pulling perhaps even more troops than she did for the Pacific war to fight the USSR, Chiang Kai-Shek would do everything possible to aid his new found close ally Stalin. How this would work out is anyone's guess, but it would be significant as I believe America would be providing a lot more goodies.    Ok you've all been patient, what happens with the war? Japan has to deliver a decisive knock out blow in under 4-6 months, anything after this is simply comical as Japan's production has no resources. The oil in siberia is not even remotely on the table. The Japanese can't find it, would not be able to exploit it, let alone quick enough to use it for the war. Hell the Italians were sitting on oil in Libya and they never figured that out during WW2.   So Kantokuen is unleashed with an initial blow against the Primorye in the Ussuri Front followed by an assault against Blagoveshchensk and Kiubyshevka. The main soviet lines south of Lake Khanka are attacked by the Japanese 1st area army, 3rd and 20th armies and the 19th Korean division. This inturn threatens Vladivostok who is also being bombarded by IJA/IJN aircraft. The 5th Ija army attacks south of Dalnerechensk in an attempt to sever the trans-siberian railway, to block Soviet reinforcements and supplies. The 4th IJA army fords the Amur river to help with the assault of Blagoveshchensk. Meanwhile Sakhalin is being attacked from land and sea by two IJA divisions.  Despite the Soviets being undermanned the western front facing Mongolia and the Trans-Baikal region is wide up to an attack as its only defended by the 23rd IJA division, so a limited counteroffensive begins there. The Japanese quickly win air superiority, however the heavily fortified Tochkas are not being swept aside as the Japanese might have hoped. A major problem the Japanese are facing is Soviet artillery. The Japanese artillery already placed along the borders, initially performed well, crushing Tochkas in range, but when the Japanese begin advancing and deploying their artillery units they are outgunned perhaps 3-1, much of the Soviet artillery outranges them and the Soviets have a much larger stockpile of shells. Airpower is failing to knock out soviet artillery which is placed within Tochkas and other fortified positions with anti-aircraft guns. Without achieving proper neutralization or counter battery fire, the Japanese advance against the fortified Soviet positions. The Soviets respond shockingly with counterattacks. The 15th and 35th Soviet armies with the Amur Red Banner Military Flotilla toss limited counterattacks against both sides of the Sungari River, harassing the Japanese. While much of the soviet armor had been sent west, their light tanks which would be useless against the Germans have been retained in the far east and prove capable of countering the IJA tanks. The Soviets inflict tremendous casualties, however General Yamashita, obsessed with blitzkrieg style warfare he saw first hand in the west, eventually exploits a weak area in the line.Gradually a blitzkrieg punches through and begins to circle around hitting Soviet fortified positions from the rear. The Soviets knew this would be the outcome and had prepared to fight a defense in depth, somewhat managing the onslaught.  The trans-siberian railway has been severed in multiple locations close to the border area, however this is not as effective as it could be, the Japanese need to hook deeper to cut the line further away. In the course of weeks the Soviets are gradually dislodged from their fortified positions, fighting a defense in depth over great stretches of land. Vladivostok holds out surprisingly long until the IJN/IJA seize the city. Alongside this Sakhalin is taken with relative ease. The Soviet surface fleet is annihilated, but their large submarine force takes a heavy toll of the IJN who are attempting Pacific landings. Kantokuen phase 1 is meeting its objectives, but far later than expected with much more casualties than expected. The Japanese are shocked by the fuel consumption as they advance further inland. Each truck bearing fuel is using 50% of said fuel to get to the troops, something reminiscent of the north african campaign situation for Rommel. The terrain is terrible for their vehicles full of valleys, hills, forests and mountains. Infrastructure in the region is extremely underdeveloped and the Soviets are burning and destroying everything before the Japanese arrive. All key roads and cities are defended until the Japanese can encircle the Soviets, upon which they depart, similar to situations the Japanese face in China. It is tremendously slow progress. The IJA are finding it difficult to encircle and capture Soviet forces who have prepared a series of rear lines to keep falling back to while performing counterattacks against Japanese columns. As the Japanese advance further into the interior, the IJN are unable to continue supporting them with aircraft and much of the IJA aircraft are limited in operations because of the range. The second phase of Kantokuen calls for the capture of Khabarovsk, Komsomolsk, Skovorodino, Sovetskaya Gavan, and Nikolayevsk. Additionally, amphibious operations against Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and other parts of the Kamchatka Peninsula are on standby as the IJN fears risking shipping as a result of Soviet submarine operations. The sheer scope of the operation was seeing the tide sides stretching their forces over a front nearly 5000 km in length. At some points the Japanese were attempting to advance more than 1000 km's inland, wasting ungodly amounts of fuel and losing vehicles from wear and tear.  So what does Japan gain? Within the span of 4 months, max 6 months Japan could perhaps seized: Sakhalin, the Primorsye krai including Vladivostok, segments of the trans siberian railway, Blagoveshchensk, Kuibyshevka. If they are really lucky Khabarovsk, Komsomolsk, Skovorodino, Sovetskaya Gavan, Nikolayevsk. Additionally, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and other parts of the Kamchatka Peninsula. What does this mean? Really nothing. Pull out a map of manchuria during WW2, take a pencil and expand the manchurian border perhaps 1000 km if you really want to be generous, that's the new extent of the empire of the rising sun. The real purpose of attacking the USSR is not to perform some ludicrous dash across 6000 km's of frozen wasteland to whittle down and defeat the Soviets alongside the rest of the Axis. It was only to break them, in late 1941 at Moscow there was perhaps a fools chance, but it was a fool's chance for Japan.  Japan has run out of its stockpiles of Kaisenbun, oil, iron, rubber, tin, all types of resources necessary for making war. Unlike in our timeline where Japan began exporting resources from its conquests in southeast asia and the pacific, here Japan spent everything and now is relying on the trickles it has within its empire. The China war will be much more difficult to manage. The lend-lease will increase every day to China. The US/UK/Netherlands will only increase pressure upon Japan to stop being a nuisance, Japan can't do anything about this as the US Pacific Fleet is operating around the Philippines always a looming threat. The Japanese are holding for a lack of better words, useless ground in the far east. They will build a buffer area to defend against what can only be described as a Soviet Invasion of Manchuria x1000. The Allies will be directing all of their effort against Germany and Italy, providing a interesting alternate history concept in its own right. After Germany has been dealt with, Japan would face a existential threat against a very angry Stalin. Cody from Alternate History Hub actually made an episode on this scenario, he believed the Soviets would conquer most of Japan occupied Asia and even invade the home islands. It would certainly be something on the table, taking many years, but the US/UK would most likely interfere in some way. The outcome would be so much worse for Japan. Perhaps she is occupied and a communist government is installed. Perhaps like in our timeline the Americans come in to bolster Japan up for the looming coldwar.  But the question I sought to answer here was, Japan invading the USSR was a dumb idea. The few Japanese commanders who pushed it all the way until August 9th of 1941 simply had to give up because of how illogical it was. I honestly should not have even talked about military matters, this all came down to logistics and resources. You want to know how Japan could have secured itself a better deal in WW2? 1941, the China War is the number one problem Japan can't solve so they look north or south to acquire the means to solve the China problem? Negotiate a peace with China. That is the lackluster best deal right there.    Sorry if this episode did not match your wildest dreams. But if you want me to do some batshit crazy alternate history stuff, I am more than happy to jump into it and have fun. Again thank all of you guys who joined the patreon, you guys are awesome. Until next time this is the Pacific War channel over and out. 

Send us a textToday, we cover the non-aggression treaty between the USSR and Nazi Germany signed in 1939, that shocked the world. It also was the trigger that started World War IISupport the show

James Holland is a historian specializing in World War II. He hosts a podcast called WW2 Pod: We Have Ways of Making You Talk. Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep470-sc See below for timestamps, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc. CONTACT LEX: Feedback - give feedback to Lex: https://lexfridman.com/survey AMA - submit questions, videos or call-in: https://lexfridman.com/ama Hiring - join our team: https://lexfridman.com/hiring Other - other ways to get in touch: https://lexfridman.com/contact EPISODE LINKS: James's Books: https://amzn.to/4caapmt James's X: https://x.com/James1940 James's Instagram: https://instagram.com/jamesholland1940 James's Substack: https://james1940.substack.com WW2 Pod (Podcast - Apple): https://apple.co/4l93Dl3 WW2 Pod (Podcast - YouTube): https://www.youtube.com/@wehaveways WW2 Pod (Podcast - Spotify): https://open.spotify.com/show/34VlAepHmeloDD76RX4jtc WW2 Pod (Podcast - X): https://x.com/WeHaveWaysPod SPONSORS: To support this podcast, check out our sponsors & get discounts: Shopify: Sell stuff online. Go to https://shopify.com/lex LMNT: Zero-sugar electrolyte drink mix. Go to https://drinkLMNT.com/lex AG1: All-in-one daily nutrition drink. Go to https://drinkag1.com/lex Notion: Note-taking and team collaboration. Go to https://notion.com/lex OUTLINE: (00:00) - Introduction (00:34) - Sponsors, Comments, and Reflections (07:25) - World War II (17:23) - Lebensraum and Hitler ideology (24:36) - Operation Barbarossa (40:49) - Hitler vs Europe (1:02:35) - Joseph Goebbels (1:12:29) - Hitler before WW2 (1:17:25) - Hitler vs Chamberlain (1:39:31) - Invasion of Poland (1:44:07) - Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact (1:52:09) - Winston Churchill (2:16:09) - Most powerful military in WW2 (2:38:31) - Tanks (2:48:30) - Battle of Stalingrad (3:01:21) - Concentration camps (3:10:53) - Battle of Normandy (3:24:45) - Lessons from WW2 PODCAST LINKS: - Podcast Website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast - Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr - Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 - RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ - Podcast Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOdP_8GztsuKi9nrraNbKKp4 - Clips Channel: https://www.youtube.com/lexclips

Due to the complete betrayal of Ukraine by the US, the security situation for the western world – including Australia – is worsening. However, you wouldn't know that here with complete political and media indifference with people preferring to focus on the weather situation in Queensland. This is appalling parochialism and is ignoring the reality that the cherished “special relationship” with Washington is over. It's finished. The US is no longer a reliable ally because the President is acting as if he is a Russian asset. What we are witnessing is a modern-day version of the infamous Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of 1939, which divided Eastern Europe up between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union – except this time it's Russia and the US deciding the future of Ukraine and other countries. It's disgusting – and now Canada is also receiving treatment from the US that their Prime Minister believes is part of an attempt to turn it into the 51st US state. This isn't a joke, and Australians need to wake up. Our government needs to overcome its terror of upsetting the US and show some backbone on behalf of our friends and allies. We have leverage and should not be afraid to use it. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Edition No99 | 20-02-2025 - Bad information. Bad preparation. Bad intent. Not grounded or limited by values.o We have been deceived and swindled. Trade imbalance. Bad deals. o Everything that is the US's is by extension mine. All the slights mine too. o Relationships are all transactional, monetary in nature, and short-term. o See alliances through the lens of immediate quid pro quo.o ‘Bad deals made by Biden' need to be repaid and allies squeezed for money. - Two points of view on the war: o Principled defense of democracy and sovereignty, selfless and values ledo Ukraine is guilty of not capitulating and resisting absorption by Russia World - Geopolitical points of view:o West: struggle of authoritarianism against democracy against Axis of Evil. o US: If you can't beat them, collude with them. Peel Russia away from China. o Russia: divide US from West. Make complicit in criminality. Betray and destroy.o China: let West and Russia attrit themselves, then define new global order. - The path of least resistance – Trump sees the fall of Ukraine as the fastest solution. o The Afghan strategy part 2 – but this time own defeat via lies and gaslightingo Assumptions behind this strategy – Russian disinformation narratives injected. o Russia is strong and Ukraine is weak; Europe is decadent and will do nothing. o Hear words “Ukraine shouldn't have started the war / refused to negotiate.”o It's the failure to submit to force – to violence to see the world transaction-ally. o What are you dying for, when you could make money? No values. No empathy. o No mention of holding elections in Russia, run by same dictator 25 years.o No mentioned of Russian crimes, violence, illegality and interference. ----------SILICON CURTAIN FILM FUNDRAISERA project to make a documentary film in Ukraine, to raise awareness of Ukraine's struggle and in supporting a team running aid convoys to Ukraine's front-line towns.https://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extras----------LINKS:https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/trump-and-putin-aligning-over-ukrainian ----------SILICON CURTAIN LIVE EVENTS - FUNDRAISER CAMPAIGN 10 Events in 10 months - Advocacy for a Ukrainian victory with Silicon Curtainhttps://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extrasOur first live events this year in Lviv and Kyiv were a huge success. Now we need to maintain this momentum, and change the tide towards a Ukrainian victory. The Silicon Curtain Roadshow is an ambitious campaign to run 10 events in 10 months (at a minimum). We may add more venues to the program, depending on the success of the fundraising campaign. https://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extrasWe need to scale up our support for Ukraine, and these events are designed to have a major impact. Your support in making it happen is greatly appreciated. All events will be recorded professionally and published for free on the Silicon Curtain channel. Where possible, we will also live-stream events.https://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extras----------SUPPORT THE CHANNEL:https://www.buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.patreon.com/siliconcurtain----------

As war breaks out across the continent, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Belgium fall in quick succession, while France—once confident—stumbles due to its military's outdated doctrine, strategic blunders, and insufficient materiel and communications equipment. The victorious left of the late 1930s disintegrates after the Soviet Union orders the French Communist Party (PCF) to oppose the war, following the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact between Hitler and Stalin.As the war rages on, some on the right grow eager to surrender, realizing their beliefs were not so different from Hitler's. Meanwhile, Churchill, despite failing to sufficiently support the French war effort, urges the French to resort to urban warfare—a strategy that would likely reduce Paris to rubble. As the government flees Paris, moving southward to Orléans, then Tours, and eventually Bordeaux, the newly appointed right-wing Prime Minister, Marshal Philippe Pétain, announces to the French people that an agreement has been reached with Nazi Germany.This marks the beginning of what would become known as Vichy France—a collaborationist, authoritarian regime. In October 1940, Vichy France codifies anti-Semitism into law, under the so-called "Decree-law on the status of Jews". Stay tuned for our eventual series on Vichy France.We would like to thank Sam for joining us these past few episodes and encourage you to check out his Substack: Political Risk Dispatches (turnbaugh.substack.com).If you like the show, please share it with your friends and collegues!

About the lecture: In December 1989, in officially recognizing the authenticity of the 1939 Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact's secret protocol, the USSR Congress of People's Deputies evinced the hope that the globally divided historical consciousness of the Cold War would be replaced with a new conception of the past, reflecting “a whole and mutually interdependent world and increasing mutual understanding.” While there was cause for hope in the immediate post-Soviet years that such a “flat earth” of shared accounts of history—the foundation for a world of shared political values—would emerge, subsequent decades led to renewed, often weaponized fragmentation of historical vision across political borders, and especially at the border separating Europe from the Russian Federation. However, in distinction from the Cold War opposition of ideologically differentiated accounts of history, current standoffs relate to the application of the most basic terms—empire, nation, fascist, genocide, socialist, liberal—which are applied on both sides of borders and conflict zones, yet with opposed significance. Rather than a confrontation of historical ideologies, this is a standoff of historical ontologies. In this presentation of his recently published book "Border Conditions: Russian-Speaking Latvians Between World Orders", Platt will examine the etiology of this ontological conflict, as it emerges from the experience of a population that has been located since the end of the Cold War in the interstitial zone at the borders of Europe: Russian-speaking Latvians. Their world, riven by contradiction, offers a vantage, as through a keyhole, toward globally shared conditions of historical and political incoherence and conflict at the start of the twenty-first century. About the speaker: Kevin M. F. Platt is Professor of Russian and East European Studies at the University of Pennsylvania. His scholarly work focuses on Russian and East European culture, history, poetry, and fiction. He is author or editor of a number of scholarly books, among them "Terror and Greatness: Ivan and Peter as Russian Myths" (Cornell, 2011), "Global Russian Cultures" (Wisconsin, 2019), and, most recently, "Border Conditions: Russian-Speaking Latvians Between World Orders" (Cornell/NIUP, 2024). His translations of Russian and Latvian poetry have appeared in "World Literature Today:, "Jacket2", "Fence", and other journals. He is the founder and organizer of the poetry translation symposium Your Language My Ear. His current project is entitled “Cultural Arbitrage in the Age of Three Worlds.”

This episode of “The Loins of History” podcast delves into the intricate history and political dynamics leading to the fall of the French Third Republic and the onset of World War II, with a particular focus on the pivotal Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. Hosts Colin and Jay expertly connect historical events with contemporary issues, exploring themes of national identity, the importance of alliances, and the impact of political divisions within countries. Through engaging discussion, they offer insights into why nations collapse and what lessons can be learned to prevent such downfalls, drawing parallels between past and present to enhance historical and political literacy among listeners. This thought-provoking episode not only sheds light on a critical period of 20th-century history but also prompts reflection on current global dynamics and the significance of unity and strategic foresight in maintaining national and global security. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/theloinsofhistory/support

In this episode, the hosts continue their series on the fall of the French Third Republic and discuss the Munich Conference. They start by giving shoutouts to new subscribers and positive comments on YouTube. They then provide background information on the French Third Republic and the remilitarization of the Rhineland. The hosts discuss the weak leadership in France and the role of Neville Chamberlain in Great Britain. They explain the events leading up to the Munich Conference and the negotiations that took place. The episode ends with a discussion on the May and September crises and the leverage Hitler had over the Allies. The conversation explores the events leading up to the Munich Conference and the themes of leadership, appeasement, and the consequences of speaking from a position of weakness. It highlights the lack of confidence in Western leaders and the importance of inspiring courage and strength. The Munich Agreement, signed by the Allies and Hitler, is discussed, along with the impact of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact on the invasion of Poland. The main takeaway is that preventing war requires a strong and assertive stance, rather than appeasement.TakeawaysWeak leadership and a lack of strong alliances contributed to the fall of the French Third Republic.Neville Chamberlain's policy of appeasement and belief in Hitler's good intentions proved to be a grave mistake.Hitler's leverage and willingness to go to war gave him the upper hand in negotiations.The Munich Conference highlighted the failure of the Allies to effectively address Hitler's aggression. Leadership plays a crucial role in international affairs, and weak leaders can lead to disastrous consequences.Speaking and negotiating from a position of weakness and appeasement does not work in preventing war.Preventing war requires a strong and assertive stance, backed by a willingness to use force if necessary.The Munich Agreement and the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact are examples of failed attempts at appeasement.Chapters00:00 Background and Weak Leadership07:48 The Munich Conference40:40 The September Crisis and Negotiations44:16 French Foreign Minister and Avoiding War46:04 Blaming Czechoslovakia for Germany's Resort to Force51:19 Leadership and Courage55:06 Lack of Confidence in Western Leaders56:33 Leadership and Inspiring Courage58:42 Leadership and Defeatism01:00:56 The Munich Conference01:04:28 Italian Proposal and Munich Agreement01:09:49 Chamberlain's Concerns and Hitler's Response01:11:21 Reaction to the Munich Agreement01:17:36 Speaking from a Position of Weakness and Appeasement01:21:00 The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and the Invasion of Poland01:24:45 Preventing War with a Bigger Stick --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/theloinsofhistory/support

First Hitler, then Stalin. For the people of Poland 1939 is a terrible year. The effects of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact are becoming evident, as the world war is starting.

The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact sealed the fate of millions and kick started World War II. Join in as we are diving into one of the most cynical deals ever made, discovering how the most unlikely of partners; Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union, united in unholy matramony. 

When most people think of World War II, they think of the Allied powers of the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union, versus the Axis powers of Germany, Italy, and Japan.  However, this wasn't always the case. At the start of the war in Europe, Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union actually coordinated with each other to invade their neighbors. Learn more about the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact and how the Nazis and Soviets were allies before they were enemies on this episode of Everything Everywhere Daily. Sponsors BetterHelp Visit BetterHelp.com/everywhere today to get 10% off your first month ButcherBox Sign up today at butcherbox.com/daily and use code daily to choose your free steak for a year and get $20 off."  Subscribe to the podcast!  https://link.chtbl.com/EverythingEverywhere?sid=ShowNotes -------------------------------- Executive Producer: Charles Daniel Associate Producers: Peter Bennett & Cameron Kieffer   Become a supporter on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/everythingeverywhere Update your podcast app at newpodcastapps.com Discord Server: https://discord.gg/UkRUJFh Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/everythingeverywhere/ Facebook Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/everythingeverywheredaily Twitter: https://twitter.com/everywheretrip Website: https://everything-everywhere.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

YellowLantern19 is a Poster, Writer, and Proprietor of the Memory Eternalness Substack. Today he joins me to discuss Section 2: Chapter 5 of Sean McMeekin's Stalin's War, "Courting Hitler."  YellowLatern19's Links: Twitter: https://twitter.com/YellowLantern19  Substack: https://memoryeternalness.substack.com/ Find The Prudentialist Support the Channel: https://www.subscribestar.com/the-prudentialist Substack: https://theprudentialist.substack.com/ Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/prudentialist Merch: https://mr-prudes-wares.creator-spring.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/MrPrudentialist All other links: https://findmyfrens.net/theprudentialist/

A colossal human chain, stretching 430 miles, spanned across Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania on 23rd August, 1989 - the anniversary of the Molotov Ribbentrop Pact that covertly carved up the region fifty years earlier. Around two million people held hands for 15 minutes, synchronised at 7pm and photographed from helicopters above. Organised by Rahvarinne of Estonia, the Tautas fronte of Latvia, and Sąjūdis of Lithuania, the event drew global attention to the three nations' desire for independence.  In this episode, Arion, Rebecca and Olly consider the Soviet authorities' response to this pacifist protest; explain how the participants were placed across the route; and reveal just how to make your own miracle in Vilnius' Cathedral Square Plaza… Further Reading: • ‘30 Years Ago: How A Photographer Captured The 'Baltic Chain' From Above' (Radio Free Europe, 2019): https://www.rferl.org/a/how-a-photographer-captured-the-1989-baltic-way-protest-from-above/30119472.html • ‘BALTIC STATES LINK IN PROTEST 'SO OUR CHILDREN CAN BE FREE'' (The Washington Post, 1989): https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1989/08/24/baltic-states-link-in-protest-so-our-children-can-be-free/5a016f3d-35d0-4a7e-ab75-916c8c05eb0d/ • ‘Baltic Way: 30 years since the 600-km human chain that helped trigger the collapse of communism' (EuroNews, 2019): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVg6S6KEHDE #80s #Protest #Russia #Politics #WW2 Love the show? Join 

In the fall of 1939, Germany and the Soviet Union signed the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, a peace treaty in which the two nations also agreed to divide Poland. Soon afterward, the German army invaded Poland, unveiling a new type of warfare that became known as “Blitzkrieg.” After the fall of Poland, Europe settled into an uneasy calm. Meanwhile, Soviet soldiers invaded Finland but met with fierce resistance. In this episode, Sean and James tell the story of Blitzkrieg, Sitzkrieg, and the Winter War between the USSR and Finland.

Episode Summary Brooke, Casandra, and Margaret talk about the war in Ukraine and how Russia is not doing great, the train derailment in East Palestine, anti trans bills, Adderall shortages and meth, the return of Big Chicken, long covid as potential auto immune disease, further bans on abortion drugs, drought, floods, earthquakes and the US's top priority: shooting million dollar missiles at balloons. Host Info Margaret can be found on twitter @magpiekilljoy or instagram at @margaretkilljoy. Casandra is just great and can be found at Strangers doing awesome layouts, and Brooke can be found on Twitter or Mastodon @ogemakweBrooke. Publisher Info This show is published by Strangers in A Tangled Wilderness. We can be found at www.tangledwilderness.org, or on Twitter @TangledWild and Instagram @Tangled_Wilderness. You can support the show on Patreon at www.patreon.com/strangersinatangledwilderness. Next Episode A special episode will come out next week on March 17th on Surviving the Justice System. Transcript This Month in the Apocalypse: Feb. 2023 Brooke 00:15 Hello and welcome to Live Like the World is Dying, your podcast for what feels like the end times. This is the February-March installment of our segment, This Month in the Apocalypse and I'm calling it the February-March episode because we're recording in February and we're talking about February but you're going to be listening to it in March, most likely. I'm Brooke Jackson, and with me today, as usual are the quick thinking Casandra and the fast acting Margaret Killjoy. Casandra 00:38 I don't know if that's accurate. Margaret 00:42 Or at least fast talking sometimes, especially when I'm hyper. And today I'm hyper Casandra 00:46 half of what I'm going to talk about today is brain fog and how it impacts me. Brooke 00:51 Nice. Well, before we get into today's episode, we'd like to share a little something something from another one of the swiftly streaming podcasts on the Channel Zero network of anarchist podcasts. Casandra 01:17 And we're back. Cas, Margaret, how are you feeling today? Casandra 01:51 I just had my first sip of tea. Margaret 01:55 I have been doom scrolling so hard that I didn't sleep last night because of all the anti trans legislation. So I didn't sleep enough and then I ate a protein cookie and pretended like it was food. So I'm great. Casandra 02:07 And you don't do caffeine at all. Not even tea. Margaret 02:09 No, yeah, a bunch of sugar and protein in a cookie form is my equivalent of like making me immediately hyper. Casandra 02:18 Alright. Margaret 02:19 Because I don't fuck with caffeine. I'm straight edge, except for alcohol. Brooke 02:24 Well good, you should take all that energy and tell us some things. Margaret 02:29 Oh, okay, right. I'm first. Okay, February has been a big month for the apocalypse. The Apocalypse is coming in hard with a bunch of mostly really bad shit. I think that the biggest story, or whatever, the earthquake that happened in Turkey and Syria was really fucking bad. Everyone probably already knows this. As of when I'm recording it, the death toll stands at about 50,000 people in Turkey and Syria. Those numbers are still expected to go up. And a lot of it has to do with poverty and with buildings that are not built to withstand earthquakes. This is happening in a poor region. And that is absolutely affecting everything. I don't have as much information about that to relay, but I just feel like it's like the single most...like now I'm going to talk about the fucking balloons and I hate the fucking balloons. And I want people to know that like the earthquake is more important. But on February 14th, I think, I don't remember, I wrote on February 14, but you think I'd remember that was Valentine's Day. A surveillance balloon, there's a Chinese balloon and the US shot it down. It was a really actually big balloon and it probably included some surveillance equipment. China was like, "It's civilian." The US is like, "No, it was military." I'm not stressed about it because I expect the US government is surveilling me and I don't really give a shit if some other country...whatever, I don't fucking care. It may have been capturing cell transmissions and shit over the US. But then, of course, this sets off this like massive paranoia, where everyone's like, "Balloons are trying to get us. Those Chinese balloons." And the US like scrambled.... Brooke 04:20 I always knew it was going to be balloons. I've always said it, the balloons are coming for us. Casandra 04:22 Doomsday mechanism. Margaret 04:26 I mean... Brooke 04:27 it's the balloons. Clearly. Margaret 04:30 They are creepy. Actually. This is funny, my my dad is phobic of hot air balloons. I'm sorry to reveal this about you, dad. And because he was always like, "No, they're just there. They're on the horizon. They're creepy." Like he's not afraid of being in that. He's afraid of them like on the horizon. Casandra 04:46 One of my most traumatizing childhood moments was this hot air balloon show was like going over the neighborhood and I was spinning in circles staring upward watching them as one does and forgot that my mom had a whole like row of rose bushes. And then spent the whole afternoon having like rose thorns picked out of my ass. So, that's all to say that I don't think your dad's insane. Margaret 05:10 Yeah, so the US government scrambled a bunch of fighter jets to shoot down a whole bunch of other balloons, all of which, like the government is like, "We do not believe that they are surveillance balloons, but we don't know." And the reason that they're saying we don't know is because, well one they obliterated tiny balloons with missiles. So there's like, not a lot left. There's like like half a million dollar missiles being shot at these fucking things, one of which missed. They missed a fucking balloon over Lake Huron, and then it like, fell into the lake. And they're like, "No one was harmed." And I'm like, great, I feel so fucking good that the government is shooting missiles at the US. That makes sense. And so probably those balloons are like amateur weather balloons, like people like do this, where you're like, I'm gonna get a balloon and like, put a bunch of equipment on it and send it up into the sky. And it's cool, right? And because you can like see the stuff. And so fortunately, the US government is there to protect us against amateur weather and radio fans. Brooke 06:11 You know, you know, our friends over that other podcast have been saying we should nuke the Great Lakes. So I think this was just a trial run to... Margaret 06:20 Fuck, Robert Evans is like actually the one that got them to shoot missiles. Casandra 06:24 Cancel Robert Evans. Margaret 06:25 Yep. All right. Yeah. Or he's a prophet. Brooke 06:32 That's what I was gonna say, Margaret 06:34 Speaking of Prophets, but actually, in both mench versions of that word, there was a massive disaster on February 3, in East Palestine [rhymes with Springsteen], Ohio, because it's not pronounced Palestine [rhymes with Stein], in which a train carrying a bunch of toxic shit had overheated wheel bearings, and derailed. It passed like a bunch of sensors that were like, detect overheated stuff. And then like on the last one, it was like, "Hey, you're overheating," and then it crashed. This overturned 11 Toxic cars at a...a bunch of more cars overturned, but 11 of them were full of toxic chemicals, including vinyl chloride, but also a bunch of other shit. 115,000 gallons of vinyl chloride, were let loose. And then they were like, "Slright, well, we better set the shutter on fire," I'm not actually even going to like talk shit on the fact that they set on fire. It might have been the best thing that they could do in that circumstances. There is a lot of stuff that is implying that the government and you know, Norfolk Southern and all that are like downplaying the degree to this disaster. It is a massive disaster, it is a big fucking deal. And the people involved should be held accountable. And there's like, all kinds of stuff about how a lot of the deregulation and of course, you know, the fact doesn't help that Biden like stopped a railroad strike for better safety conditions, because that's mostly huge part of what people are striking for. And they absolutely are like, the numbers are trending upwards. They're like, "It's not a big deal." And they were like, "Hey, there's a bunch of dead fish." And people were like, "There are 4000 dead fish." And they had a very specific number. It might not have been that number was like 300, 800, 3,850, or something. As of this morning, when I double checked, they're up to 43,000 dead aquatic animals. That's 10 times the previous claim. I understand why people are skeptical of these claims. They're probably not forever chemicals. These are the sorts of chemicals that will break down. However, no one knows the long term effects of the exposure that people have already had to these chemicals. And it's fucked up. Norfolk Southern stock has dropped, but not as precipitously as you would might like. It's not even as low as it was last October, just like took a dip. So buy the dip, everyone go out and buy....don't do this. Don't go out and buy stock. Okay, that's what I know about that. Other people might know more about it. Casandra 08:56 Oh, I was just gonna say that.... Margaret 08:57 Next. Okay go ahead. Casandra 08:58 I was just gonan say that the EPA seemed pretty like, firm with them, which I appreciated. It wasn't the response I expected. Oh, were you wagging your finger at me? Or like...they were like. Brooke 09:12 I was being the EPA. Yeah. Because we're in a point of visual medium here, right with a podcast. So, everyone can see me doing that. Casandra 09:19 I watched the recording and the guy was like, "If y'all don't do this up to our standards, we will do it and then bill you and not just like, you'll get the bill, but we'll bill you a certain number of times the amount that it actually cost us as a penalty." Yeah, it's something I don't know. Margaret 09:37 I mean, that's good. Yeah. Oh and then the other thing, when I when I lead with the transition of Prophets in both sense of the word. About a week before this disaster, I watched the Netflix movie "White Noise" based on the 1980s novel called "White Noise," in which a toxic chemical train spill it In East Palestine, Ohio happens and fucks everything up. And it fucks with my head, just straight up. It fucks with my head that I watched a movie about a natural disaster and then... not a natural disaster, a manmade disaster. And then a week later, it happened in the same town of 5000 Fucking people. Or 4000 people. Casandra 10:20 Maybe, you're not a prophet, maybe actually. Your brain just determines all of reality. Margaret 10:29 Oh, no, I'm not a prophet. No, no, no, no, I don't think this is me. Casandra 10:31 I think that what happens in your head is then what happens in the outside world. That's more plausible. Brooke 10:39 Yeah, that seems right. Casandra 10:40 So, don't think anything.... Margaret 10:42 This is a really good thing to tell someone who lives alone. Brooke 10:46 I mean, it clearly anyone who reaches a certain level of podcasting, fame then develops a power to cause things to happen. Yeah, that's what we're saying here. Margaret 10:57 Good to know. And then everyone lived in a happy anarchist society for all times in which everyone was equal, except Margaret was a little bit more equal and got like twice as much tea in the morning. Casandra 11:06 You don't like tea. We just went over this. Margaret 11:10 Yeah, well, I shouldn't have more of something I want. That would be fucked up. Casandra 11:14 This is the like weirdest Catholic version of anarchist Utopia I've ever heard of. Margaret 11:23 Hi, I'm Margaret Killjoy. Alright, so it's speaking of other bad shit that happened this year, or actually, well, okay. The thing that happened in February is is the one year anniversary of the Ukraine war. As currently stands, it's fallen out of the news, which means that no one is dying anymore, and everything is fine. Except that... Brooke 11:47 PBS still does it. So to just throw a tiny amount of credit over there. But yeah... Margaret 11:54 Yeah, well actually it's funny because people will talk mad shit about mainstream news and for good reason. But like, overall, I think mainstream news is a little bit better of a job than like Twitter at like, staying attached to stories over time, rather than just like chasing the clicks, which is fucking saying something because that is what mainstream news was notoriously bad at. I just think social media is even worse at it. On the other hand, it's not the job of the random Twitter person to....Okay, so, the Ukraine war is largely out of stalemate. As stands Russia holds 17% of Ukraine, an area twice the size of Italy. It's less than they controlled at the beginning of the war by a decent amount, and specifically, almost all their holdings are in the east. And it's been like slowly being chipped away at overall is kind of the general thing. Most foreign fighters left after a few months, it went down, there's 20,000 foreign fighters, mostly like vets of various other countries who are like, "Well fuck an invasion." And a lot of people were like, I think actually a lot of people were like, "Well, I fought in all of these like evil US wars, because they have like worked for the US government. Here's a just war," and people went like chasing a just war, right. It's down from about 20,000 foreign fighters to 2000 foreign fighters as the war drags on. China is calling for peace talks right now. And more might have happened by the time you hear this, like this is like news from yesterday and today, and their position is...like I mean overall they're trying to present themselves as neutral, but like overall they're like, "This is a war of Western aggression." You know? "This is a war of you know a Ukraine shouldn't dress like that if it didn't want to get attacked." They've four times abstained....Thank you for laughing at my off color joke. And yeah, I mean, because that is what it comes down to this idea of like, we had to invade you because you are getting too close to our borders with your power or whatever. Like, you can't fucking justify invading another country for that reason. Casandra 14:03 They're opposing US imperialism, Margaret. Margaret 14:06 Yeah, they do. Casandra 14:07 NATO! Margaret 14:10 Yeah. Yeah. And that's China's position. They're with the US tankies. Or rather US tankies are with them. They have four times abstained from voting in the UN votes to ask Russia to withdraw its troops it's possible also that China's like trying to get in....and this is like everyone. This is the actual imperialism from my point of view about all this is everyone calling for these peace talks a lot of it is that they're like they want in on the economic reconstruction aka they want like their economic interest in the capitalism to to do their thing just to China it's slightly more state capitalism in the US it's slightly more.. Casandra 14:46 China's not capitalist Margaret What are you talking about? Margaret 14:48 Oh, right. Sorry. I Forgot. They want to bring their peoples army... and I Love that It's like the tankies pretending that Russia is fucking commie...anyway. The number of Russian soldiers Ukraine is killing is going up, which, you know, whatever, fuck them. 824 Such Russian soldiers a day are dying in Ukraine in February, which is the highest rate since the invasion started. Between 180,000 and 270,000 Russians have died in the war in the past year. And for comparison, Russia is this huge place. And we think about like how Russia just like, bled people during World War II, you know. Russia is only half the population of the United States. And so this is...so when you think about percentage wise, if you think about, it's like, you know, the equivalent of half a million people dying in one year in a dumb fucking war. About 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died. They claim that 13,000 of their soldiers have died. Vaguely neutral observers from the outside of claims that 100,000 have died, which is like, their, their like, kill rate, oh, God, I'm not even going to pretend to put this in video game terms. That's fucked up. And also another 30,000 or so civilians, Ukrainian civilians have died. Like directly, tons more displace. Everything's fucked up. It's war. I haven't been able to get a recent number for the total number of arrests in Russia. But, it's like worth really understanding how much a lot of Russians do fucking not want this to happen. There were 15,000 people arrested protesting against the war and like the first month of the war alone, and there's thousands more at various other times, but I wasn't able to find a total count. And, you know, in case anyone needs any reminding that nationalism is garbage. between half a million and a million Russians have fled, rather than be conscripted and fight in this stupid fucking bullshit. And 200 or so Russians are actively fighting for Ukraine. There is no out good outside guests. That is a guess from one of these Russian fighters. And they all have different reasons. I am aware of their being Russian anarchists. I was not able to find more information about that. Most of the anarchists that I know from other countries I think are more involved in directing solidarity goods, except for Belarus.. A lot of anarchists fighters in Ukraine. Anyway, of the 200 or so fighters, the the one I was able to find the specific motive for he's is doing as his Christian duty to stop invasions. And let's see, okay, almost done with the Russian war thing. Dutch intelligence reports that Russia is mapping power and gas infrastructure in the North Sea for potential attack. This came out like yesterday. So who knows what will happen with that. And then it's also kind of worth knowing there's like all of these, like anti war rallies happening around the war around the world. And most of them are like about trying to stop the Russian invasion of Ukraine, right? They're like, "Hey, this war is fucked up, aka Russia is fucked up." But in the US, we get a different kind of anti war movement, we get an anti war movement that's a weird collection of tankies and Nazis... Casandra 18:20 Margaret, that never happened! Margaret 18:21 ...coming together like a Molotov-Ribbontrop Pact to say stop the war machine. Casandra 18:28 Stalin is the whole reason..... Margaret 18:34 Yeah, no, I know. Casandra 18:38 The reason the Nazis were defeated soley was because of Stalin, therefore, you know, the Soviet Union never never ever could have allied with the Nazis, even though we have historical records that it did blah, blah. Margaret 18:53 Yeah, like at the beginning, Russia was like, "Hey, allies, can we hang out with you, Germany's looking real weird." And the allies were like, "I'm not sure." And so then Russia was like or USSR was like, "Hey, Nazis, can we hang out with you? We know bad shits about to happen," and they were like, "Yeah, but totally," and the USSR sent them tons of aid, just literal material, tons of aid. And collectively, they mapped out which countries they were going to invade together and they invaded Poland together...It's Poland. Am I getting that right? And then, Germany was like "JK, surprise attack." And then the USSR was like, "Okay, we're against you." And then fucking millions of Russians died to defeat the Nazis and that needs to be understood and respected. But like Stalin was like making them...there's like, reports from survivors...This is totally what this episode is about. There's like reports from survivors who were like forced to charge Nazi tanks bare handed. And so like, the high numbers of Russian dead wasn't because Stalin ruled. The high numbers is because Stalin fucking sucks. Anyway. Casandra 20:08 And there's also the whole like, the line that like the USSR saved with the Jews or whatever, when, which was just like totally. Anyway, we won't talk about how Jews were treated in the USSR. Margaret 20:23 When they signed the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact....Yeah. Anyway, USSR is not modern Russia, but there's an anti war movement. So that's okay. That's Ukraine. Now, the trans laws, the thing that has me up all night. Yesterday, I believe the Tennessee House passed a bill. And now this was misrepresented. And I accidentally misrepresented this too, because I trusted a Twitterer who trusted a news article from a mainstream source that, okay, a Tennessee House did pass this bill. And by the time you're listening to this, probably their fucking Senate and Governor have signed off on it. But the article was like, "And now it goes up to the governor." It doesn't it goes to the Senate first. And a lot of really shitty laws passed the House, but not the Senate in like, any given place. So there's like, still hope. But I'm not full of fucking hope because a lot of these types of laws are passing right now. The type of law I'm talking about, this is an anti drag law. And these anti drag laws are similar ones proposed around the country and all the details are a little bit different. But the overall idea is that if anyone who is a male or female impersonator, AKA a crossdresser, aka, me living my fucking life, or a drag performer, if they perform, and if it's like, in any way, like...some places it's just like literally if they perform, or exist in public, and another one's the Tennessee laws a little bit like, and they perform in a way that has any kind of like, sexual titillation, or whatever then that has to be the venue that is now a strip club legally, or like, needs to be a like 18+ adult entertainment, cabaret or whatever the fuck Casandra 22:15 Like who's deciding if something's sexual? Margaret 22:19 Uh huh. And it is. First cops, then judges, Two groups I trust to the bottom of my....nothing. Margaret 22:35 Or the parents who call the cops. Brooke 22:41 Don't forget about he mob. Margaret 22:42 Yeah, no, totally. They're the first step in it. So that is the literal criminal criminalization of being trans in public. Casandra 22:45 Yeah, there are nine anti trans laws on the books right now in Oregon. Yeah. Margaret 22:52 Yeah. There's 14 other states with similar anti drag laws in the works, including Oklahoma, Texas, Arizona, and Idaho. And I just didn't find the full list, I found people like a couple different places giving like short versions of the list. South Dakota did just pass a law like not just the house or whatever, but like it's fucking signed, that forces trans youth to detransition. And Utah passed a law against trans youth also, very recently, or against allowing trans youth to transition. But, I don't believe it forcibly detransitioned. I believe that this one in South Dakota is the first one to force detransition, which from my point of view, pretty much means that trans...families with trans children who can't afford to move are going to have their trans kids run away or kill themselves. Just like, frankly, I am not recommending. I am recommending if you're a trans youth to in a place that is affected by this to get in touch with community to try and help you and your family get out of that situation. That is what I'm directly recommending. But, the the reason that doctors believe in gender affirming care for trans youth is that it lowers the rates of death substantially. Oklahoma is currently considering a bill to ban gender affirming care to adults, anyone under the age of 26. Brooke 24:22 Fucking Oklahoma. Casandra 24:22 I can't remember which bill i was reading, but I was reading about one that was worded in such a way where gender affirming care also ended up including things like hormones for ciswomen dealing with menopause, like it was so broad sweeping that like, I just don't think people consider the broader implications. You know what I mean? Margaret 24:41 I don't know whether this one was that one, but I...it wouldn't surprise me and I feel like people pass laws like that all the time. And then just like, no one's going to actually stop cis women from accessing hormones from menopause, you know, or like, you know, people dealing with prostate cancer often take hormones and you know, testosterone blockers and things like that, and like...All the shit is overbroad, like crazy, but not in a way where I feel like oh, it's overbroad, and it gets struck down like no, it's gonna get targetedly used against trans people against, the Left. And 5% of US people in the US who are under the age of 25 identify as trans or like nonbinary in some way, compared to point .5% of the rest of the population as a whole. And I would like to...don't make me tap of the sign of the that graph of chart of left handedness as a chart of left handedness. Like once they stopeed. Once they started letting people be left handed, it goes up and caps itself, you know. And every major medical association in America recognizes that gender affirming care for youth saves lives. That is not a...I assume everyone listening to this already knows the shit, but it's like worth fucking knowing. This is not a like, medically contested issue. You know, this is like, and I'm not like, "Man, you know, who I trust immediately, the medical institution, they always have our backs." But, they do in this case, because they're not fucking... Oh, God. That's what I've got to talk about this week. Brooke 26:20 Jon Stewart did a good piece that was on gender affirming care that maybe everyone's already seen, because it was a little while ago, but was, you know, citing those...Just what you're exactly what you're saying, Margaret about every every major medical organization in the US. Margaret 26:38 And honestly has been one of the only cispeople I've seen talking about it in public. The silence from cispeople has been deafening. And if your cis and listening to this, I'm hoping that if you've been silent about it, I'm hoping that the reason you've been silent about it, is because you're afraid of taking up too much of the conversation. Because we do have this way of talking about social issues right now, where people are afraid to talk about issues that don't directly affect them. And I think that that is a misstep. And that it will take cis people talking about this angrily, before anything will change. Because, when it's just trans people, and sometimes their immediate families who are showing up to protest, everyone's going to be like, "Well, fuck those pedo whatever," fuck, whatever. Fucking bullshit, you know. So from my point of view, part of the reason this keeps me up at night is not because the Nazis want to kill me, they've wanted to kill me for a long time, they've sent me letters to this effect, with like, my parents address in it, you know, it's that when I don't feel supported, is when I feel the most lost about all of this stuff, just frankly. And so sometimes like that support is like, like, "Margaret's guide to being supportive to your trans friends," is like, like, sometimes, like random people messaging me to be like, "I see you, you're valid." I'm like, that's great. I don't I don't need that from strangers. What I need from strangers is for people to talk to the people, they're around and say shit about this, you know, I have a, I know I'm valid. I have a supportive family. And I have a supportive network of friends and all of that, you know? Yeah, sorry, this is...I mean, all of these things that we're going to talk about are big deals. But you know, this one affects me very directly. Brooke 28:45 Oh, no, I appreciate you saying more about it, because I was gonna ask follow up questions about like, you know, showing support and good ways to do that. So thanks for talking about that. Margaret 28:55 Be fucking angry. Like, you know, and it's like, and this stuff like, it's also all part of misogyny. Like, because people want to control people's bodies. And so transmen are affected by this because they're, like, leaving womanhood behind and that's bad or whatever. And then of course, transwomen are like, the reason that people don't want us to exist is a weird protect the women thing, right? And so like, when cis women are loudly like, "No, I would rather have this transwoman in the bathroom with me then like I don't know someone who's like peeking under stalls to make sure no one has a penis." Like people being loud about that kind of support. There's this brilliant video of thus person who I believe is a cis woman who's like getting gender policed by a Karen in a bathroom. Casandra 29:47 I saw that Margaret 29:48 And refuses to answer whether or not she has a dick. Yeah, it fucking...that gives me hope. So, I like. Casandra 30:00 That's like reverse Karen. Brooke 30:02 I just bookmarked that so I can watch it after Casandra 30:05 We should start a Nazis know our parents' address club. Margaret 30:17 And then like...it's funny I try not to talk too much about my family on this podcast, I guess, but then again the Nazis already know where they live. Like my dad's fucking ex marine with anger management issue who loves this trans daughter? How's do they think this is gonnna go? Casandra 30:35 I mean, my situation, my parent's would've been like "Whatever." Margaret 30:41 Yeah, okay, fair. I'm sorry. Casandra 30:43 Okay, who's next? Brooke 30:48 Okay. Can we talk about happier things? Margaret 30:54 What podcast are on? Casandra 30:57 I genuinely can't remember who's next. Is it you, Brooke? Brooke 31:03 Allegedly. Although, if it's something you have segues better for, I'm all for it. I had a good segue from the war thing. But then we then we start talking about the trans issue and I don't know where to go from there. Casandra 31:13 I think the world is shit. There are lots of them. They're diverse, shitty things to talk about, you know? Margaret 31:18 Well, and even the war thing, it's like, you know, what, Ukraine is fucking holding on a year later. That is a fucking positive story. It is a terrible, horrible story. But they're still fucking there. You know, like people thought Ukraine wasn't going to be a country by last summer. Brooke 31:36 That's a really good point. Well, speaking of war, wars, the war on drugs. Drugs. Adderall. I did it you're welcome. We did a, I think our August episode or something like that we did a roundup on like shortages, things that were in shortages. And I know we talked about Adderall at one point and being in shortage and why. And that started like last summer sometime I think August or so it was when people started talking about it. The FDA or DEA, I can't remember which one it was that came out with the announcement. I think the the FDA came out like late October and said, "Hey, we have an Adderall shortage." And everyone said, "We fucking know we've been dealing with with this for two or three months now." And it's gotten worse than it's been in the news again, recently, because of just how much worse it has gotten. We talked about it previously, we talked about some of the reasons why the shortage was happening. And part of it is a production issue. It's a very controlled substance. So, it's not like manufacturers can just start pumping out a whole bunch more. And not just like the creation of the Adderall. But the ingredients that go into it are controlled substances as well, so they can only make so much of that. Allegedly, there's enough supply of the base ingredients that we shouldn't have this shortage. So.... Casandra 33:10 Sorry, I'm stupid about Adderall, is it it because meth. Is that the....? Okay, sorry. Brooke 33:18 That's where I'm going with this, but yeah, that's that is that. That is part of the reason it's such a controlled substance, because Amphetamine is, you know, main ingredient, it's it's people often refer to Adderall as being, you know, legal meth, or prescribed meth. Casandra 33:33 I know nothing. Wow. That's wild. Brooke 33:42 So, there have been some reports of folks that haven't been able to get their Adderall and have, in fact, turned to meth in order to get the substance they need, and there's not a good sense of how like widespread this is, versus, you know, a couple of instances that hit the news, you know, there's at least one story of somebody who died in an ER, because of meth. And they said they were taking the math because they couldn't get their Adderall prescription. And, you know, meth, you know, historically causes no problems to the brain and doesn't make people say things that are wacky and untrue. So we can trust that story. But, that's what's happening. But, the fun conspiracy theorh where I'm going with this that's floating around is that the government is purposely restricting the manufacture of Adderall to force people to turn to meth to perpetuate the war on drugs. So there you go. Conspiracy theories are fun. Margaret 34:43 Wait, So this is a new conspiracy. Okay. How the balloons tie in? Casandra 34:48 Yeah. Margaret 34:49 Is that where moving it? They're getting the Adderall out of the country? Casandra 34:52 They're delivering it. If we would have let them come in farther, they would have just released it because everyone wants Adderall. Margaret 34:58 Oh, yeah. That's sort of true...the part where everyone wants Adderal. Casandra 35:03 I do not. Margaret 35:06 Yeah. No, I don't want Adderall. I'm hyper off a cookie. Brooke 35:12 That's part of the issue is that the prescriptions for Adderall increased 27%. From 2019 to 2022. There were like 35 million prescriptions in the US, which is a fuck ton, in 2019. And then it went up to like 45 million by 2021 or 22. And I mean, shocker. Everybody's stuck inside with a pandemic. Like we overprescribed, that are all for sure. And I and that is not to say there's not people who genuinely need it out there. And I don't mean to bash anybody's use of of that prescription. But you know, one of the articles that I was reading they, you know how news reports like to pick a human interest story to tell their story, they were talking about this 16 year old female in Utah, who's like in all of the AP classes, honors classes is getting ready for college and how stressed out she was and obsessed with perfection, and she couldn't get all her stuff done. And then she got an Adderall prescription. And, and now she's able to get all her homework done, and she's acing all their classes, and it's ready for college and blah, blah, blah. And it's like, well, yeah, I mean, you just gave her gave her amphetamines. Casandra 36:36 I feel like there's a misuse potential. Like, the people I know, who have ADHD and take Adderall, it doesn't impact their system that way, you know. And I also think there's a certain, I see this with autism as well, there's a certain amount of like, like the left handed thing that Margaret brought up, you know? Like, it might seem like, it might seem like an undue spike, but I'm sure a large percentage of that is people who are finally getting care they need. Margaret 37:12 And then also, like, I think about it because I came closer to seeking medication for ADHD than I ever have. And what it was for me is that I built my entire life around the fact that I have ADHD, there's a reason that I'm a freelancer, there's a reason that I, you know, I travel, there's a reason I work for myself. Like, there's all these things that I've done, that have made ADHD not a problem in my life, right. But actually, the beginning of the pandemic, it made it more of a problem. It made it harder for me because like, I had to sit in my cabin and work on a computer in order to eat food, and stuff, you know, and so like, and I don't thrive in certain environments, and so I was like, "Man, if I had something that helped me thrive in this environment." So. Casandra 37:56 Which then makes me wonder, like, how much of that need is attached to Capitalism, you know, lthe ike productivity. So? Yeah. Margaret 38:04 Oh, yeah. No, totally. I mean. Totally. I had a day job for a minute. Casandra 38:10 Sitting in a cabin alone with....That sounds like my dream. Margaret 38:16 I know. Well, I was fine until the day job. Awesome. Margaret 38:24 Okay, so, Brooke 38:25 Again, I don't want to like bash anybody that's taking it. I don't know. I don't want to say that there aren't legitimate reasons that some of those people didn't need it. But, we we do know that it's overprescribed, that you take you know, young people who are high achieving, and we've got them overscheduled and fucking Capitalism. Casandra 38:41 Oh, everyone, I knew in college was....Adderall all the time. Brooke 38:46 Yeah, just give them drugs. So, that's part of the problem. Anyway, the DEA is trying to get you addicted to meth. x Casandra 38:59 I thought it was the FDA. Margaret 39:02 And that's why they're shooting down balloons. Brooke 39:06 No, it's the DEA because that's the Drug Enforcement Agency. They're the ones trying to perpetuate the war on drugs and they have something to do. Casandra 39:14 I hope people know when we are and aren't being sarcastic. Margaret 39:22 I hope so too. But I'm not optimistic. Brooke 39:27 Never take me seriously. That's my answer. I have one other fun conspiracy theory thing. Okay, it actually came up right after the end of our last recording and it was kind of a bummer. We didn't get it in there. But, it's about chicken feed. Casandra 39:46 Big Chicken! Brooke 39:47 And chicken feed conspiracy, that something is....Yep, Big Chicken. Not and not Tyson. Not that evil chicken, but it's actually a big big fooder you may have heard of this brand called Purina? Casandra 40:01 Dog food. Brooke 40:02 Are pretty well known for creating pet food. Yeah. Margaret 40:05 They feed cats. Brooke 40:06 But they also make more industrial feeds like chicken feed and guinea pigs and goats and I don't even know the full extent of their thing, but they make feed for a lot of different kinds of animals. And people started reporting in July last year that their chickens and this is industrial level and you know, household people chicken in the backyard kind of people, crazies like me that their their egg laying productions seem to be going down. And then going through the winter, a lot of a lot of people have talked about their eggs production from their chickens being at or very near zero, which I also have been in this boat for a while my my four girls were not laying any eggs. And it wasn't an old chicken issue, like they're, they're young, and they just started laying this last summer. And yes, production goes down in the winter, that's normal, but doesn't usually just completely drop off. So, people were posting about it on social medias and talking about it and started forming this conspiracy that there's something wrong with chicken feed, Purina mainly because they're one of the biggest suppliers not just under their name brand, but their sub brands as well. And that something is missing in the chicken feed that's causing them not to lay as well. And then lots people saying "I switched to another brand, I started mixing my own," blah, blah, blah. "And suddenly my my chickens are laying again." And as much as I hate conspiracy theories and don't want to feed into it, I have to say that I also was having the same issue of zero egg production. And then I grabbed a protein blend from a different brand and started mixing that into their feed and getting eggs. Margaret 41:49 That doesn't have to be a conspiracy. They could have just fucked up. Casandra 41:51 Honestly, people have reported that they've had their feet tested. They've had their Purina tested and it contains the appropriate amount of protein. So there's like, at this point a month later....I'm sorry, I was the one who brought this up because I was I raise quail. And so I'm on, I don't know, poultry, social media. Yeah. Anyway. But yeah, so apparently people have gotten their feed tested, and it has the appropriate components, so now they're like, "Is there something added to it?" That's the new conspiracy. Margaret 42:27 Well, I know what, I know what the problem is. Brooke 42:29 Morgaret has the answer. Casandra 42:32 Okay, good. Margaret 42:32 Yeah, I watched this....No, it's not gonna be the answer. No, I watched this documentary called All Quiet on the Western Front on Netflix last night. And in it, the Imperial German soldiers, while they're occupied France during World War One, there's they're breaking into farmers yards and stealing the eggs. And so it's actually. It's actually Imperial German soldiers are breaking into everyone's yards and stealing quail eggs and chicken eggs. Brooke 43:10 Oh, okay. Casandra 43:12 Obvious. Brooke 43:12 There are a lot of other factors that genuinely influence chicken, like production, like the amount of light and the temperature. And, you know, our light levels are not particularly off. They're low this time of year, like always, but it definitely has been a little bit colder on average this winter here for us, though. My mother...Hi, Mom, I love you was like you need to put a heating light on your chickens and they'll lay more which I did for a month and it didn't affect anything. Although that was also after one of those snows that we had too. Casandra 43:44 Can I telll you one of the more wingnut versions of this I've heard? Brooke 43:47 Yes, please. Casandra 43:48 And who knows. But, the most like, you know, puppet master version of all of this I've heard is that Purina partnered with some giant egg company that I can't remember the name of right now, who just opened a whole bunch of, starting last fall open several massive like egg production facilities. So, it's in Purina's best interest to add something to the feed so that our chickens can't lay eggs. And that's why egg prices are through the roof. And now you have to buy the eggs and it's just ohhhh. Yeah. Brooke 44:26 Yeah, that's the other thing that's feeding into the conspiracy theories I was gonna wrap this up with. Brooke 44:29 Sorry. I'm taking... Brooke 44:30 No, you're fine. It's perfect. Perfect segue. Excellent. Yeah. Is the prices going up on eggs is all feeding into conspiracy and you know, people not thinking about food prices in general have gone up and we feed chickens food things. And yeah, anyway, what Margaret? Margaret 44:48 Oh, just there's some, I was reading today, that there's some guesses that we might have hit peak food inflation, specifically around eggs and meat. Because basically, no one can get enough money...because you can't sell eggs at a certain...the way cap, the market works, you know, you can't sell it at a certain amount, so fewer sell or whatever. And so wholesale egg prices have started dropping. And as of when the article I read came out this had not yet hit retail egg prices. Because people probably are like, Well, alright, I can buy them for cheap and sell them for just as much Fuck yeah. But wholesale egg prices are starting to drop and meat prices are also starting to drop on a wholesale level, because inflation reduced the profit. Brooke 45:39 Okay. Well, the one upside, so that's sorry..... Casandra 45:48 I think there's something about Purina feed, and we don't know what and that's fine. And that people seem to be switching feeds or making their own and it's fine. I mean, there might be but like, I don't really care personally, I'm like, I just want my quails to lay eggs. Margaret 46:07 And it's just not a conspiracy. They're just fucked up their food. Brooke 46:09 Right. Yeah, there's other complicating factors. It's not maybe not just this one thing. Like, yeah, you know, we hear where Cas and I live have had a colder little bit colder winter than average and that'll slow down production. I don't know for the US as an entirety but you know, just an example. Margaret 46:25 Well, there's there's that saying "Never never attribute to incompetence. What can be understood..." No, wait. I know something isn't...It's Goddamnit "It's not malice. It's incompetence." It's more likely that it is incompetence than malice at any given thing that's happening. Casandra 46:49 I mean, yeah, it's like very experienced people who are having this issue, like there's something, there's something wrong, right? Margaret 47:05 Oh, that's what I mean about...sorry, I don't mean incompetence of the chicken keepers. The chicken lords. Brooke 47:10 That is what we call ourselves, Margaret, chicken lords. Margaret 47:12 I mean, the incompetence of Purina. The...like Purina fucking up the feed is probably because they fucked up the feed, not cause they're like, "hahaha." Brooke 47:25 I mean, it's entirely possible Purina switched to cheaper, lower quality components to create their feeds because of inflation. Casandra 47:31 It's not incompetence if it's a giant company. Yeah. Brooke 47:35 There's something in that. The one upside of.... Casandra 47:40 Root cause. Okay. Yeah. Brooke 47:42 There you go. Nice. Margaret 47:44 Yeah, it might be greed instead of malice. Brooke 47:45 Let me just say the happy thing. Margaret 47:46 What's the happy thing? What's the happy thing? Brooke 47:50 Is that people have turned to other feed sources. So, instead of supporting the big giant mega Corp, they're supporting smaller ones, like I reached out to a local person who's making their own blends. And I'm going to start using some of that. People have learned how to create their own blends and feed their things, which I think it's always great to get away from the industrial manufacturers. So... Casandra 48:11 I don't know how to jump from chickens to this.... Brooke 48:17 Chickens. Avian Flu. Flu. Sickness. Bad. Long COVID. Casandra 48:24 I raised quail because I'm allergic to chicken eggs, cause autoimmune disease. Did you know long COVID is kind of like an autoimmune disease? Brooke 48:32 Nice. Casandra 48:35 Do either of you know anyone with long covid? Brooke 48:37 Yes. Margaret 48:39 Yeah, part of the reason I don't leave the house, not because I have it, but because I'm terrified. I mean, I'm making rational decisions around safety. Brooke 48:48 I'm worried I'm having it. Casandra 48:52 Oh, well, maybe maybe this will be easier. When I when I first heard about it. So, some of the symptoms I've heard include fatigue, brain fog, difficulty breathing, joint pain, chest pain, general like lower quality of life, gut issues. When I hear that list, I'm like, oh, that's, that sounds like my autoimmune disease. And sure enough, they're realizing that long COVID does have a lot in common with an autoimmune disease. I don't think they're classifying it that way. At this point, like the research is ongoing, but it's just really interesting to me. So apparently, something like 11% of people who get COVID-19 will have long COVID, which lets you one study in "Nature," I read said up to 65 million people are suffering from on COVID, which is apparently a 10th of the number of people worldwide who have had COVID. So , 1 in 10 people is kind of a lot. Yeah. And suddenly, you know, folks at the beginning of COVID, who were calling it, a mass disabling event make a lot more sense. Brooke 50:01 Yeah. Casandra 50:05 This is terrible and funny. I read a tweet where someone said "People went on about herd immunity. But now we have heard autoimmunity." Brooke 50:12 Oh, it's funny and awful Casandra 50:17 It is. Sorry, I'm laughing at that because I have an autoimmune disease. I think I should offer that context. So, populations impacted: Apparently 4% of folks with long COVID are under 12. Aside from that about a third are people under 50. Another third are 50 to 60. And then another third are people above 65. So it is impacting people who are our age. Brooke 50:44 You can't have three thirds and four percent. Casandra 50:47 I said, in addition to that. Or after that. Brooke 50:51 Okay, sorry. Math. Just slap me. Casandra 50:53 I read so many studies to cobble this all together. Don't judge my numbers. It's more...I say that to bookkeeper. It's more predominant in transgender folks and women, which is also true of autoimmune diseases. 75% of people with long COVID where never hospitalized. 75% of those people have not sought medical help for long COVID. And there's also an assumption that a lot of these numbers are actually higher, because we all know how reporting has gone down in and how healthcare is expensive. And if people don't have to go to a hospital or a doctor, they won't, you know. Brooke 51:35 Is there anyone out there that still saying long COVID doesn't exist? Not like the you know, extremists but like, mainstream for a while was like long COVID is made up? It's not actually happening. Is that still a common thought? Or is that finally going away? Casandra 51:50 I don't know how common it...so this is all really curious to me because I have an autoimmune disease and because last month, January 2023, two different studies came out about Ehlers Danlos Syndrome, which I also have, and how it increases the likelihood of long COVID. And when that study came out, I started to see a bunch of people talking about long COVID and low dose Naltrexone being a useful approach, which is a medication I take, which I cannot get prescribed by a regular doctor. Because they deny that it's a useful immunomodulator. Like remedy. And that's all to say that like, I think I'm hypersensitive to the disbelief around these things. And one of the reasons this if fascinating to me. Yeah, one of the reasons this is fascinating to me, is because it's opening up these conversations about these diseases that patients have been talking about for years, and have not historically been believed. Margaret 52:56 Often as a symptom of misogyny, right? Casandra 53:01 Yeah, Totally. I don't know anyone who has, you know, something in the spectrum of chronic illness who hasn't gone through, like literally years of doctor saying it "Doesn't exist," or "You don't have it." Or "It's not that bad." Like, I had to call my doctor and inform her of what I had, like, based on my labs, because she didn't tell me. And so now there's this like, sped up process around long COVID, right, where like, so many people are getting sick all at once that like, there was the disbelief and other people downplaying it. But like, research is catching up at a faster rate, it seems like, which has implications for the broader community, which could be positive. Even though it sucks that how many, how many millions. 65 million people.... Margaret 53:52 Well, it's like mRNA caccines, like, it's fucking cool, that we're suddenly able to get vaccinated for so many more things than we used to. And it is absolutely fucked that it took this...It took so many people getting this before people were like, "Oh, maybe it's just not like the modern version of hysteria," the whiny woman disease or whatever, you know. Casandra 54:20 Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I think there's....up until very recently, if you walked into a doctor and were like, even if you had a what's the word I'm looking for, not a prescription when they tell you what your... a diagnosis, from a previous doctor saying "I have chronic fatigue," or whatever. It's highly likely that your new doctor will say that doesn't exist. But now, suddenly, the only word...it's like the only words that they have to describe long COVID are these words like chronic fatigue and autoimmune disease? So, suddenly they have to like view them as legitimate. But studies are coming out in these like, major scientific journals like "Nature." "JANA," what's the other one? I was reading? Whatever, science. So people are taking it seriously. And that's, not exciting because I wish it didn't exist at all, but is good. Brooke 55:27 Yeah, the friend that I have. Casandra 55:28 I have a whole. Oh, go ahead. Brooke 55:30 Oh, just the friend that I have that has long COVID he has faced a lot of that struggle with this belief. I think he got COVID earlier on, or at least not recently. And yeah, definitely has faced a lot of like disbelief and extra hurdles and trying to advocate for himself and get the kind of care that he needs. Casandra 55:54 Yeah. And it's, it's I think maybe people need to understand how severe it can be. Because the umbrella of long COVID, my understanding, like, you know, they're still actively defining this term, but my understanding is that it's people who have at least two symptoms, at least, I think it's two months after the acute infection goes away. But for some people that can be so debilitating that like, they need walkers, or they need you know, it's life altering. Yeah. And I read one study that said that, as many as 4 million people are unemployed, because of long covid, which is a whole other conversation around, like, what counts as a disability in this country? And what doesn't? Like I remember when I was first diagnosed with my autoimmune disease, and was way less functional than I am now. I was like, "Why? Why would I not qualify for disability?" And the answer is that there are a lot of bureaucratic reasons, apparently. But yeah, who knows, maybe that will change too. Brooke 57:04 Part of it's because...part of the bureaucracy is that they can't take away the designation once they've given it. So, they don't want to make it too easy to label you disabled, because then you don't, you don't get to go back from being disabled. Margaret 57:22 Or we could just not means test care. And anyone who needs care, could just have care. Casandra 57:31 We don't think you're sick enough. Do you want to hear some more interesting statistics? Brooke 57:39 Always. Give me numbers. Casandra 57:42 Yeah, I know Brooks excited. So, a study in Germany recently found that people who get COVID have a 30% or had a 30% increase in risk of autoimmune diseases up to a year after their acute infection. So, there's active comorbidity there. And the people who go into COVID having an autoimmune disease, have a 25% increase in their chance of contracting additional autoimmune diseases. But that's all significantly lowered if patients are vaccinated. There's a like crunchy version of autoimmune communities where people are antivax. Margaret 58:26 Oh, that's why you're making angry eyes as soon as you.... Casandra 58:30 Well, so these statistics are particularly important, right? Margaret 58:35 I'm mad that there's been a Lyme vaccine that they just didn't finish studying. I could be wrong about this. I don't remember all the details. I read a pop science article about it. But there's like a...there's been a Lyme disease [vaccine] that they can give to dogs, but they just didn't finish studying it and people. And it's been around for like 20 years. Brooke 58:54 That's infuriating. Casandra 58:55 I don't live in Lyme country. So it's not like as big an issue here. But that's wild. Margaret 59:00 I got Lyme in Oregon. Like, where you live. But, and I and I live in fucking Lyme country and I've never gotten Lyme over here. Brooke 59:11 Wow. Yeah. Got some anyway, family in Idaho that, about 15 years ago, were battling Lyme and one of them had it since he was a teenager. Margaret 59:23 I want to fucking Lyme vaccine. It's like, I think people who play D&D are going to be smarter around risk analysis, because anyone who's played D&D knows that 5% chance of something happens means it's gonna happen. Like... Casandra 59:37 Yeah, eventually. Margaret 59:39 Yeah, exactly. And because you've had that happen over and over again, when you play this, and you also realize that anything that you get, that's like, a plus 5% safer, you always take it, right, like, and the vaccine is like a 90% safer, and people are like, "Ah, people still get sick, so therefore it's bullshit," but Like, if the vaccine made you 5% safer, and you play Dungeons and Dragons, you'll take it. Casandra 1:00:05 It's actually, it's 10%. It's 10% safer. Margaret 1:00:09 Wait, what is? Casandra 1:00:11 If you're vaccinated.... Margaret 1:00:13 Oh, about the autoimmune stuff. Okay. Casandra 1:00:15 Yeah. Margaret 1:00:15 I was thinking about like COVID itself, but yeah. Yeah. Casandra 1:00:21 I just like kind of fantasy of my high school stats class actually being taught through D&D and like, maybe I would have understood math. Margaret 1:00:27 Yeah, it like, it's, yeah, you understand probability a lot better if you like, regularly.... Casandra 1:00:33 You're actively practicing. Yeah. Yeah. Um, what else do you want to know? Margaret 1:00:43 About long COVID? Casandra 1:00:45 Yeah. Margaret 1:00:46 I was hearing that....It...For most people does taper off. Is that being understood? Or is that like, like not to be like, therefore it's fine, but just like, less of a like, "Oh, God, my life is over. This thing has happened," or whatever. Like, I was under the impression that people....not that it should...people should feel like their life is over, even if they get it bad. But like, not that it's... Casandra 1:01:17 It's not debilitating? Brooke 1:01:18 It's not permanent. Margaret 1:01:19 It's not necessarily...it's not necessarily permanently debilitating to everyone who gets it and that it like a lot of people it's about a way slower getting better, but not everyone some people it's about a permanent effect. But that other people are like recovering just very slowly. Is that? Am I completely off? I've no idea. Casandra 1:01:40 I've heard that empirically. But I didn't find a study that like....I found studies acknowledging that for some people after a few months, they get better. Like even if they started out with long COVID, symptoms will get better, but I didn't actually see numbers about...and I think part of that is that it hasn't been long enough. Margaret 1:01:57 Yeah, totally. Casandra 1:01:58 And even if...so, so I keep comparing this to an autoimmune disease, but they haven't actually said like "This is in fact an autoimmune disease," you know, there are people who say it's because of mast cell activation there are people who say it's actually a neurological issue, like they're still figuring it out. But if in fact it it does function like an autoimmune disease you would need years to see how it actually impacts people because people might have a slower recovery and feel better and then you know, their immune system could be triggered by something and they'll get sick again. So yeah, we just don't know. Casandra 1:02:33 That makes sense. Brooke 1:02:36 So I might not be fatigued and coughing forever is what you're saying? Maybe. Casandra 1:02:42 Yeah. Brooke 1:02:45 Okay, that's good. Casandra 1:02:46 But if you are people are researching the efficacy of low dose Naltrexone Brooke 1:02:51 And I'll get my brain back. Maybe. Casandra 1:02:54 I'd say some percentage of it. Margaret 1:02:57 Have you tried yoga? Casandra 1:03:02 You're actually not supposed to do stretching flexibility things with Ehlers Danlos, that's the antithesis of what you're supposed to do. So, no. Margaret 1:03:14 I hope that as we talked about, people not being able to tell when people are being sarcastic, I hope that I manage that tone. Brooke 1:03:22 Okay, but I need yoga for my PTSD. Now I'm lost. Casandra 1:03:27 You could just try the breathing exercises. Brooke 1:03:30 Okay. Meditation that's the one universal good. Casandra 1:03:32 Yeah. Brooke 1:03:33 Maybe. We'll see the sleep disorder. Casandra 1:03:38 I feel I feel like what we're doing right now is like a small encapsulated version of what these like, chronic illness communities do on a larger scale. And at a certain point, I just, like, have to detach myself because I'm like, everything will harm you. Casandra 1:03:52 How about we talk about other headlines. Casandra 1:03:58 Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Um, I found some fun ones. So, I don't remember exactly what she said. I'm sure anyone on Twitter saw, but Marjorie Taylor Greene was basically like "The country should get a divorce." Like, in my mind is civil war. That's a fun one. Margaret 1:04:19 Yeah, and I, I like that one also, because it's like people talk about like, red states, blue states, and people are like, "Oh, well, you know, Oklahoma is banning trans people. Fortunately, no trans people live there." Like, that's not fucking true. And like, and even from a like, Democrat--Republican binary, the difference between a red state and a blue state is usually about 60/40 one way or the other. Yeah, you know, and like, and that's what people aren't acknowledging. Well, there's a million things people aren't acknowledging. Casandra 1:04:50 Sort of what she wanted, she wanted to...part of that comment she made was about proposing that if people move to a red state from a blue state, they should have a period where they can't vote. which would in fact make it so that they were purely red states. Margaret 1:05:05 That's true. As a....I am not a Democrat, but I live in a red state and I am far worse than what they're afraid of with the Democrats. Yeah. Okay, my fun headline. Are we just doing like one headline back and forth for a moment? Casandra 1:05:23 Yeah. Margaret 1:05:25 Massive floods and mudslides in Brazil killed 36 people leaving 800 people homeless, displacing thousands of people, hitting multiple cities. Just massive fuck off disaster that didn't even make it to my social media headlines. Casandra 1:05:41 That makes me want to message Mena. Margaret 1:05:43 Yeah, not a bad idea to check in with her. Friends. I mean, sometimes it's like, Brazil is a very large country, right, and so like, you know, like, if someone something happens in the Pacific Northwest, and someone, my friend from another country is like, "Are you okay?" Then again, I wouldn't actually be sad at someone for checking in, even if something...whatever, anyway. Casandra 1:06:09 Federal Emergency SNAP benefits are ending March 1. Thanks, Biden. Yeah, for some people, that means the difference between like, $270 a month and $20 a month. It's like, a huge amount of money. Brooke 1:06:24 Yeah, for me, it's the difference between like, being able to just buy the foods I need and knowing there's gonna be enough versus like, having to really pay attention and budget of things to make sure I don't run out by the end of the month. Like it's not it's not even a huge amount of difference for me, but it's enough of like the difference between having to pay close attention and just being able to just buy food like normal. Casandra 1:06:49 Yeah. I've seen a few different posts by food pantry volunteers who are like, "It's already like wild in food pantries. And it's not even March 1 yet." Margaret 1:07:01 Floods in New Zealand killed for at least four people and displace 9000 people. All these headlines, it's like things show up in the head in the news when it happens. And then like this one in New Zealand, it's like, killed at least four people and there's 1300 people unaccounted for. And that article is from a while ago and so I didn't find an updated article. The fact that I didn't find it updated article probably means that 1000 More people didn't die, but was really fucking bad. Brooke 1:07:32 And then there's 9000 people that got displaced and you probably don't know what happened to them and where they went. Margaret 1:07:41 Are we still ping-ponging or should I just go with the rest of mine. Casandra 1:07:45 Oh no, I'll go Walgreens recently caved to Conservative pressure and agreed to stop selling Mifo...I get the full names of miso and mife confused but it's one of them. Margaret 1:07:59 One of the main abortion drugs. Casandra 1:08:01 Yeah, in a pro choice state. Margaret 1:08:06 Wow, in a pro choice? I didn't. Casandra 1:08:08 Oh, yes, it's Kansas, which is a pro choice state, and the you know, in case you needed the added kicker, Mifo is also used for completing miscarriages, so people will not be able to access that drug if they have a miscarriage. At least not in Walgreens. So, you know, change pharmacies if you want. Margaret 1:08:31 Legally Walgreens. Brooke 1:08:34 In Minecraft. Margaret 1:08:35 Ah, in Czarist Russia, that's what I'm pushing for is the new 'In Minecraft'. They cracked Minecraft. Now it's all about Czarist Russia. Warming oceans are cutting into the world's widest glacier. They're cutting like big trenches from the bottom into the world's widest glacier, the Thwaites, ultimately these melting glaciers over the next couple 100 years will likely raise global sea level by 10 feet. Brooke 1:09:04 Is that an Antarctic glacier? Margaret 1:09:07 I don't know. Casandra 1:09:12 I'm assured by a friend who's like a right wing researcher, who isn't right wing but does research into right wing hate groups, that this is probably going to be a non issue, but apparently and Idaho hate group on Telegram has been calling for an 'Antisemitic Day of Hate,' this Shabbat and I have friends in the areas where this is happening who have said that their synagogues are canceling services. Margaret 1:09:37 That fucking bums me out. Economic Research firm Moody's looked at US cities most at risk for combined heat, drought and sea level rise over the next 30 years,, basically like what US cities are going to be most impacted by climate change over the next couple of decades. And the losers are the Bay Area, a whole bunch of Florida, N

As the war in Ukraine continues, Russian disinformation is becoming somewhat unhinged. Joining me to explore that further is Elise Thomas, freelance journalist and OSINT analyst with the Institute for Strategic Dialogue.In this episode we also talk about Russian disinformation operations in Africa, the future of open-source intelligence, the Russian bureaucracy in occupied Ukraine, and why the French are Nazis. We even touch upon the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact. And how could we not talk about Elon Musk and all the changes at Twitter?Full podcast details and credits at:https://the9pmedict.com/edict/00194/Please support this podcast by throwing a few dollars into the tip jar at:https://the9pmedict.com/tip/https://skank.com.au/subscribe/

Donald, Christian, and Connor return to the subject of Stalin and Stalinism. Picking up from the Great Purge, the episode covers the Second World War through the death of Stalin, or the High Stalinist period. Among other things they take up the questions of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, the Gulag system, and the rise of technocracy in the postwar years. The episode ends by exploring the lessons to be learned from studying Stalin and Soviet history, and what a lot of the Left gets wrong in their orientation toward the past. References: M. J. Carley - 1939: The Alliance That Never Was and the Coming of World War II S. Davies, J. Harris - Stalin's World: Dictating the Soviet Order M. Djilas - Conversations with Stalin J. E. Duskin - Stalinist Reconstruction and the Confirmation of the New Elite, 1945-1953 D. Filtzer - Soviet Workers and Late Stalinism: Labor and the Restoration of the Stalinist System after World War II B. Kagarlitsky - The Thinking Reed: Intellectuals and the Soviet State from 1917 to the Present N. Khrushchev - Memoirs of Nikita Khrushchev: Volume 2 M. P. Leffler- A Preponderance of Power: National Security, the Truman Administration, and the Cold War M. Lewin - The Soviet Century N. Naimark - Stalin and the Fate of Europe: The Postwar Struggle for Sovereignty R. C. Raack - Stalin's Drive to the West: 1938-1945 The Origins of the Cold War G. Roberts - Stalin's Wars: From World War to Cold 1939-1953 A. Weiner - Making Sense of War: The Second World War and the Fate of the Bolshevik Revolution

(Bonus) The causes of World War II, a global war from 1939 to 1945 that was the deadliest conflict in human history, have been given considerable attention by historians from many countries who studied and understood them. The immediate precipitating event was the invasion of Poland by Nazi Germany on September 1, 1939, and the subsequent declarations of war on Germany made by Britain and France, but many other prior events have been suggested as ultimate causes. Primary themes in the historical analysis of the war's origins include the political takeover of Germany in 1933 by Adolf Hitler and the Nazi Party; Japanese militarism against China, which led to the Second Sino-Japanese War; Italian aggression against Ethiopia, which led to the Second Italo Ethiopian War and Germany's initial success in negotiating the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact with the Soviet Union to divide the territorial control of Eastern Europe between them.

Just like back in 2003 and the invasion of Iraq, once again MSNBC is beating the war drum. Today's show exposes MSNBC's Joy Reid and her shameful history of homophobia. We call out MSNBC, CNN and other leading members of the main street media as they keep priming the pump for yet another war. We also cover Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson and explain why the dumbing down of the American electorate will bring the end to our democracy. Topics: Joe Biden tells Amazon, "Here We Come"; MSNBC's Joy Reid bangs the war drum; Nancy Pelosi tests positive for Covid; Fauci says Covid will surge; Why Biden will be impeached by Republicans a year from now; Jen Psaki cashes out and heads for MSNBC; Ukraine did NOT side with the Nazis during World War 2; Putin conveniently forgets the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact; Guests With Time Codes: (1:14) David Does the News (1:15:03) Grace Jackson, co-host of the Literary Hangover podcast, and China expert explains why war between America and China is not inevitable. (1:35:16) Dave Sirus talks about Lauren Pazienza and sitting shiva (2:34:57) Donald Trump (1:57:46) The Herschenfelds: Dr. Philip Herschenfeld and Ethan Herschenfeld on grief, melancholia and how some Americans die death while other Americans embrace it Dr. Philip Herschenfeld is a Freudian psychoanalyst. Ethan Herschenfeld is a comedian and actor, and his new comedy special "Thug, Thug Jew" is streaming on YouTube. (2:36:52) Emil Guillermo on the difficult and racist road towards Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson's confirmation. Emil Guillermo is host of the PETA Podcast, and a columnist for The Asian American Legal Defense And Education Fund. (3:09:17) "I'm Traveling Light" written and performed by Professor Mike Steinel (3:14:04) The Rev. Barry W. Lynn on Judge Jackson's confirmation and why Senator Tom Cotton is now one of "Deeze Religious Nuts." © The Rev. Barry W. Lynn ran Americans United for Separation of Church and State for nearly a quarter of a century. He is a lawyer, a barrister, a counselor, and attorney, as well as a member of the Supreme Court Bar. He's also an ordained minister in the United Church of Christ. (4:06:44) Joe In Norway bakes bread (4:19:24) The Professors And Mary Anne: Professors Mary Anne Cummings, Ann Li, Jonathan Bick (5:16:08) Harvey J Kaye and Alan Minsky Professor Harvey J Kaye is the author of countless books, including “Take Hold of Our History”, “FDR on Democracy”, “Fight for the Four Freedoms”, and “Thomas Paine and the Promise of America”. (6:04:11) Donald Trump (6:08:06) Dave In PA and his trusty sidekick Chad prepare some bowls. (6:08:06) Comedian Liam McEneaney  

Eight days after Hitler's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Joachim von Ribbentrop, signed the infamous pact that bears his name along with his Soviet counterpart, Vyacheslav Molotov, Germany invaded Poland, starting World War Two. Twenty days after Russian President Vladimir Putin issued, along with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, a Joint Statement declaring a new era of international relations, he invaded Ukraine. The new era promised by Putin and Xi does not bode well for free people around the world. In this podcast, the Edifice of Trust host, Victor Bolles, looks at the implications and challenges raised by this new version of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.

Subscribe to the podcast!  https://podfollow.com/everythingeverywhere/ When most people think of World War II, they think of the Allied power of the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union, versus the Axis power of Germany, Italy, and Japan.  However, this wasn't always the case. At the start of the war in Europe, Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union actually coordinated with each other to invade their neighbors. Learn more about the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact and how the Nazis and Soviets were allies before they were enemies, on this episode of Everything Everywhere Daily.   http://www.audibletrial.com/EverythingEverywhere   -------------------------------- Associate Producers: Peter Bennett & Thor Thomsen   Become a supporter on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/everythingeverywhere   Discord Server: https://discord.gg/UkRUJFh   Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/everythingeverywhere/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/everywheretrip Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/EEDailyPodcast/ Website: https://everything-everywhere.com/everything-everywhere-daily-podcast/

In this episode we learn what happened after the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and how the Soviet Union brought Estonia into the Union through deception and force of arms.

Presented by 3Chi. With co-host Barstool Chief. Operation Barbarossa, Leningrad, Cats, The Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, Battle of Kiev, Stalingrad, Dnieper, Berlin, and more ...research by Saint Anne!

In last episode we covered the Molotov Ribbentrop Pact. In this episode we find out what the implications were of the Molotov Ribbentrop Pact and the terrible choices the Estonian government were offered. Option 1: was to agree to the Treaty on Bases, Option 2: face an overwhelming invasion from the Soviet Union. No choice at all really.

The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact is known as one of the most well known and impactful treaties to be signed in modern times. It kicked off the beginning of World War 2 and millions in Europe have had to suffer its consequences ever since.

The "AI and COVID-19 Digital Disinformation Initiative" is carried out in partnership with the OSCE's Office of the Representative on Freedom of the Media's #SAIFE project. Marcus Kolga is an international award winning documentary filmmaker, journalist, digital communications strategist, and a leading Canadian expert on Russian and Central and Eastern European issues. Marcus has a focus on communications and media strategies as tools of foreign policy and defence, and continues to write commentary for national and international media including the Globe and Mail and Toronto Star. He is the co-founder and publisher of UpNorth.eu, an online magazine that features analysis and political and cultural news from the Nordic and Baltic region. He frequently comments on Russian, Eastern and Central European issues on North American radio and television and at foreign policy conferences. Marcus is involved with international human rights organizations and national political organizations. In 2008 he spearheaded an effort to make August 23rd, the anniversary of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, a Canadian national day of remembrance for the European victims of Nazism and communism - Black Ribbon Day - by drafting a parliamentary resolution that was introduced and passed by Hon. Bob Rae. In 2015, Marcus was awarded the Estonian Order of the White Star by President Toomas Hendrik Ilves.

On August 23rd, 1939, Nazi Germany and the USSR signed the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact (aka. Nazi-Soviet Pact), which was a non-aggression pact. This came as a huge shock to the world as they had completely opposite political ideologies. If you want some more revision material, you can use the link below to access much more revision information on my website: https://sites.google.com/view/igcse-history-revision/home If you have any suggestions or questions, please fill in this Google Form: https://forms.gle/caEki6L8SzS6wwui7 THANKS FOR YOUR INTEREST IN MY PODCAST! --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/from1student2another-hist/message

This week I'll cover the initial phase of Operation Barbarossa. Remember last week we heard how the tension between Russia and Germany had been growing despite the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact which was a rather flimsy agreement based on mutual dislike rather than a proper peace document. And on June 22nd 1941 it became redundant because Germany invaded Russia as part of the massive Operation Barbarossa which Hitler had been planning since December. There is a great truth in Carl von Clausewitz's observation that the greater part of information obtained in war is contradictory, a still greater part is false, and by far the greatest part is of a doubtful character. InBetween the Wars German intelligence had been directed Westwards as Hitler built up his plans to attack Poland, then western Europe. He regarded the USSR as so backward that his intelligence gathering was erratic and largely incompetent. In consequence by 1941, German military intelligence on the Soviet Union compared rather unfavourably with the intelligence the Russians had on Germany. The arrogance is breathtaking. For example, the head of German Foreign Armies East Intelligence Lieutenant Colonel Liss could not speak Russian and appeared to have no real interest in the territory. Worse, Liss had no particular knowledge of the Soviet Union nor the Red Army and he was not even trained as an intelligence officer. This was worsened by the fact that intelligence gathering in the USSR was difficult. The Soviet system of the registration of the civilians who were forced to carry documents and labour books made it difficult to introduce agents into the country. Foreigners were frowned upon in the Soviet Union and all travel was tracked closely when permission was eventually granted. The Germans relied for their order of battle intelligence on information obtained from Finland, Hungary, Rumania and Japan. Inside Russia, the German Military attache was General Kostring who was a Russophile and unlike Liss, he was fluent in Russian. He correctly warned Berlin that the Red Army's best allies were time and space, a lack of roads, and bad weather. Hitler ignored his warnings to some extent. Kostring also stipulated in a report to Hitler that Moscow was not an important target because the most strategic heavy industry lay eastwards. To win – they had to destroy Russia's production capability which was mostly out of reach of both German planes, and saboteurs. German intelligence made a number of fatal guesses when it came to the Red Army. The first was that it was not fit for modern war and could not match a boldly led Wehrmacht. Kostring completely miscalculated the Soviet industry's capacity to provide weapons, clothing and vehicles for a long war. He also completely miscalculated the Russian fighting spirit. To give you an idea just how poor German intelligence was, when Operation Barbarossa began that Sunday in June 1941 Hitler and his Generals had no idea that both the Russian 9th Army and 26th Army were based in the Ukraine. They only discovered this almost a month later in July 17th yet both armies had been fighting the Germans since almost day one of the campaign

Brace yourselves, this is something to get really stuck into. Sławomir Debski, Director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs, joins Alex and Alina to discuss Poland's relationship with Russia, Munich and the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. A rare chance to hear a total powerhouse on the subject.

8 March 2020 Second Sunday of Lent Matthew 17:1-9 + Homily 19 Minutes 12 Seconds Link to the Readings: http://www.usccb.org/bible/readings/030820.cfm (New American Bible, Revised Edition) From the parish bulletin:    Materialism, fantasy and false worship were the temptations Satan thrust at Christ, and he is tempting our nation the same way. These seductions are a formula for Socialism, which Winston Churchill in 1948 defined as “The philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy.”    A poorly educated generation succumbs to adolescent idealism, bereft of history, unaware that a cult of the state has been a consistent failure, costing countless millions of lives in modern times.    State worship was resisted by the earliest Christians, who refused to offer incense to Caesar. Socialism is simply Communism not yet in power, and its smiling face in the guise of “Democratic Socialism” quickly scowls once it has control. As the economist Ludwig von Mises showed in various ways, the essence of Socialism is coercion and manipulation. Pope John XXIII, quoting Pope Pius XI, taught in 1961: “No Catholic could subscribe even to moderate Socialism.”    Socialism in the guise of benevolence exploits the naïve. As a corollary, Yeats said: “The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.” Lack of conviction moved appeasers to sign the Munich Agreement, and in present times it has ceded the Church’s integrity to the Chinese government. Naïve people were scandalized by the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, but Stalin and Hitler were simply Socialists in different uniforms. Just as the National Socialist manifesto of 1920 tried to replace the Church with a pastiche of “Positive Christianity,” which was Christianity without Christ, so has the Chinese government ordered that images of Christ be replaced with images of Party leader Xi Jinping.    In 1931, Pope Pius XI denounced the exaltation of the state as “Idolatry.” He insisted that “Religious socialism, Christian socialism, are contradictory terms; no one can be at the same time a good Catholic and a true socialist.” From a conviction born of suffering under National Socialism and Soviet Socialism, Pope John Paul II maintained that “the fundamental error of Socialism is anthropological . . . [because it] considers the individual person simply as an element, a molecule within the social organism… .”    As the Catholic Church is the largest charitable organization in the world, Catholics should note what a present candidate for his party’s presidential nomination, who calls himself a Democratic Socialist, said years ago: “I don’t believe in charities . . .government, rather than charity organizations, should take over responsibility for social programs.” But Pope Benedict VI has said: “We do not need a State which regulates and controls everything, but a State which, in accordance with the principle of subsidiarity, generously acknowledges and supports initiatives arising from the different social forces . . .”    The prophet Samuel warned the Israelites who wanted a king in charge of everything: “He will take the tenth of your flocks, and you shall be his slaves” (1 Samuel 8:17). That voice is louder now. 

On the 80th anniversary of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, Victor Davis Hanson reflects on how the short-lived German-Soviet treaty shaped the course of World War II — and what it revealed about the leadership styles of both Hitler and Stalin.

The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact could only keep the peace for so long. Both the Nazi and the Soviet dictators knew that a bloody confrontation between them would likely determine the future fate of Europe. But when the moment came, on 22nd June 1941, and the Nazis invaded with the largest force ever mobilised in the history of warfare... Stalin wasn't ready.  You can follow the show on www.autocracynow.libsyn.com and subscribe to us on iTunes or wherever you listen to podcasts. The back episodes are all available for free, and will be for as long as possible. You can contact us via our sister podcast, www.physicspodcast.com, where you'll find a contact form and donate button if you want to help keep the show afloat. 

Did you miss part one? Listen to part one of the episode here. Recorded on January 25, 2018. “If you're interested in power, [if] you're interested in how power is accumulated and exercised, and what the consequences are, the subject of Stalin is just unbelievably deep, it's bottomless.” – Stephen Kotkin In part two, Stephen Kotkin, author of Stalin: Waiting for Hitler, 1929–1941, discusses the relationship between Joseph Stalin and Adolf Hitler leading up to and throughout World War II. Kotkin describes what motivated Stalin to make the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact with Hitler and the consequences of his decision. Kotkin dives into the history of the USSR and its relationship with Germany during WWII, analyzing the two leaders' decisions, strategies, and thought processes. He explains Stalin's and Hitler’s motivations to enter into the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact even without the support of their respective regimes. Stalin’s goal was to defeat the West and he saw the pact as an opportunity to do so by driving a wedge between Germany and the capitalist West. Kotkin analyzes Stalin’s decisions leading up to the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union and the disinformation Germany was feeding soviet spies to prevent Stalin from moving against Hitler first. Additional resources: Why Does Joseph Stalin Matter? Stalin: Waiting For Hitler, 1929–1941 The Past Isn’t Even Past Communism’s Bloody Century When Stalin Faced Hitler

Although the Holocaust inflicted extreme brutality wherever it occurred, the specific events associated with the violence differed from one place to another. In Tasa’s Song (She Writes Press, 2016), Linda Kass weaves stories of her own mother’s life in eastern Poland under Soviet and Nazi occupation to create a universal story of suffering and survival. Tasa Rosinski is a violinist, a child prodigy living in the Polish village of Podkamien, when Adolf Hitler is elected chancellor of Germany in 1933. At ten, her world revolves around school, music, and play–secure amid a loving family, friendly neighbors, and a teasing older cousin who has become her best friend. But as Tasa matures into adolescence and moves to the nearby town of Brody for schooling, the influence of antisemitism on her native Poland grows steadily. Life becomes increasingly unsafe for a Jewish girl, however gifted. In 1939, just before the outbreak of war, the signing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact transfers Tasa’s region to Soviet control. The USSR invades: demands for socialist realism eliminate the study of Polish literature, Marxist-Leninist ideology replaces religion, and students with questionable political connections disappear from the school. The Soviets deport several of Tasa’s relatives to Siberia. Yet Tasa and those close to her will soon recast their oppressors as liberators. Because in June 1941, Hitler orders his forces to attack the USSR, turning Tasa’s home into a battleground. C. P. Lesley is the author of six novels, including Legends of the Five Directions (The Golden Lynx, The Winged Horse, and The Swan Princess), a historical fiction series set in 1530s Russia, during the childhood of Ivan the Terrible. Find out more about her at http://www.cplesley.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Although the Holocaust inflicted extreme brutality wherever it occurred, the specific events associated with the violence differed from one place to another. In Tasa’s Song (She Writes Press, 2016), Linda Kass weaves stories of her own mother’s life in eastern Poland under Soviet and Nazi occupation to create a universal story of suffering and survival. Tasa Rosinski is a violinist, a child prodigy living in the Polish village of Podkamien, when Adolf Hitler is elected chancellor of Germany in 1933. At ten, her world revolves around school, music, and play–secure amid a loving family, friendly neighbors, and a teasing older cousin who has become her best friend. But as Tasa matures into adolescence and moves to the nearby town of Brody for schooling, the influence of antisemitism on her native Poland grows steadily. Life becomes increasingly unsafe for a Jewish girl, however gifted. In 1939, just before the outbreak of war, the signing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact transfers Tasa’s region to Soviet control. The USSR invades: demands for socialist realism eliminate the study of Polish literature, Marxist-Leninist ideology replaces religion, and students with questionable political connections disappear from the school. The Soviets deport several of Tasa’s relatives to Siberia. Yet Tasa and those close to her will soon recast their oppressors as liberators. Because in June 1941, Hitler orders his forces to attack the USSR, turning Tasa’s home into a battleground. C. P. Lesley is the author of six novels, including Legends of the Five Directions (The Golden Lynx, The Winged Horse, and The Swan Princess), a historical fiction series set in 1530s Russia, during the childhood of Ivan the Terrible. Find out more about her at http://www.cplesley.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this podcast Professor Timothy Snyder (Yale) considers the politicized history and the historicised politics related to Russia's war in Ukraine, with special attention to the the enduring legacy of the Holocaust and the Kremlin's rehabilitation of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. He also previews his forthcoming book Black Earth, which will be published by Bodley Head in September 2015. His presentation, entitled 'The Fog of History: From the Great Fatherland War to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine', was delivered in King's College, Cambridge on 27 February 2015. Professor Snyder is introduced by Dr Rory Finnin, Head of the Department of Slavonic Studies, University of Cambridge.