Podcasts about shiller p e

What are the investment implications of Bitcoin's past performance? How should investors think about market efficiency in places with high corruption and low transparency? Is return stacking a game changer for individual investors? In this AMA episode, Ben Felix, Dan Bortolotti, and Mark McGrath tackle some of the most pressing financial and investment questions from listeners. They explore the efficiency of markets, the role of leverage in portfolios, and whether valuation metrics like the Shiller PE are still relevant today. Join us for insights on modern investing, behavioral finance, and the principles guiding long-term wealth building.   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:00) Introduction and AMA format discussion (3:32) Bitcoin as an investment and its role in a portfolio (14:29) The debate on factor investing in markets where factor ETFs are unavailable (19:40) The role of ETFs and whether a single all-equity fund is optimal (22:22) The risks and opportunities of buffered ETFs (26:25) Investing in markets with high corruption and low transparency (29:42) Emerging market investing and its place in a diversified portfolio (30:06) The concept of "Return Stacking" and its viability for investors (38:55) Should individual investors use leverage for higher returns? (40:51) Balancing Benjamin Graham's philosophy with modern portfolio theory (47:51) The role of valuation metrics like the Shiller PE ratio in predicting returns (50:16) The impact of AI and tech stocks on market performance (56:12) The psychology of investing and resisting market noise   Links From Today's Episode:   Rational Reminder on Apple Podcasts — https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582 Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemind Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/@rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.ca Benjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/  Benjamin Felix on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin Felix on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Dan Bortolotti — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Dan Borltolotti — https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-bortolotti-8a482310/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP

Great earnings push Netflix to new all-time highs. With the leading streamer and the market at high valuations, what should investors expect over the next few years? (00:14) Jim Gillies and Dylan Lewis discuss: - Netflix's record subscriber additions, new all-time highs, and how price increases feed into its advertising plans. - The market's Shiller PE ratio as the Trump Administration takes over, and how high valuations affect expectations around returns. - What updates from Interactive Brokers and Schwab say about where investor minds are at. (17:17) What would it take to live a hundred healthy years? Fool analyst Sanmeet Deo talks with Jonathan Swerdlin, co-founder of Function Health, about the overlapping future of artificial intelligence and human health. Companies discussed: NFLX, TKO, GOOG, GOOGL, AMZN Premium Motley Fool members can catch the full AI Summit replay here: https://www.fool.com/premium/4056/coverage/2025/01/15/ai-summit-replay You can become a premium Motley Fool member at: www.fool.com/sigup Host: Dylan Lewis Guests: Jim Gillies, Sanmeet Deo, Jonathan Swerdlin Producer: Mary Long Engineers: Rick Engdahl Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Wild ride for markets - election movers and groovers. Fed dousing the fire a bit. Inflation is still a thing. Nuke talk again.... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along... Warm-Up - Up and Down - Election Confusing Markets - What a wild ride - more to come - CTP for Carvana will be closing out this coming Friday and that is it for 2024 - CTP Cup comes in December - More hacks that no one cares about - Another big bankruptcy - Nuke talks again Markets - Up and down - shine off that penny? - Every pick / comment brings on new move - Fed pours some cold water on markets - Inflation - still a thing - Something happening - only happened a few times in history ANNOUNCEMENT : AH - Chili Competition Results - 3rd Place Netflix - Jake Paul (27) and Mike Tyson (58) - 60 million people "tried" to watch - Glitches - system overload - Jake Paul took it in a 8 round decision. - Can you imagine if Netflix starts doing these live events with a $1 charge? - Jake Paul got $40M and Tyson got $20M Follow Up - Palantir - Jumps after earnings and then announcing move to NASDAQ (Nov 26) - As of last Friday - #1 performer in S&P 500 this year - Up 48% MTD and 250% YTD - Big move Friday was because it will qualify for NAZ 100 (QQQ) and lots of buying will need to be done - Good for Peter: Thiel's Palantir holdings have increased in value by about $3.2 billion since the earnings report and $2 billion since the election. Once Hot -Now Not - Here is company that we had for clients -bought low, sold higher, bought some more higher, sold on way down - Super Micro - SMCI - was a darling for some time - then a few short sellers attacked - stock sold off - Company decided to follow the other guys with 10-1 stock spilts - stock was as high as $1,200 per share pre split- now??? $21.75 ($217.50 comparable) - Could be kicked out of NASDAQ - Short -Sellers couldbe right - Super Micro is late in filing its 2024 year-end report with the SEC, and has yet to replace its accounting firm. --- UPDATE - Super Micro Computer secures BDO USA as lead auditor, targets key filings by early 2025 amid NASDAQ approval process (Stock up 25%) Markets - Not Often Seen - The stock market has done this only three times since January 1871 - The Shiller P/E ratio has reached a reading of 38 only three times during a bull market rally in 153 years. In December 1999, during the dot-com boom, the Shiller P/E peaked at a reading of 44.19. Meanwhile, in the first week of 2022, it very briefly lifted above 40. - On most occasions, this heat needs to be cooled... It could take time as this is a slow moving ratio/indicator - Another point - only a few times in history have we seen a market up 20% - 2 consecutive years. --- Will it continue? History shows that this needs to cool off too - but that does not mean a crash is imminent. More Cooling - Russell 2000 was HOT right after the election. - Day after it was up like 5%+++ - Last week, down 4% Hack'd - Hackers linked to a Chinese intelligence agency were able to breach T-Mobile as part of a months-long campaign to spy on the cellphone communications of high-value intelligence targets - Last Wednesday, The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the U.S. cyber watchdog agency CISA said China-linked hackers have intercepted surveillance data intended for American law enforcement agencies after breaking into an unspecified number of telecom companies. - Earlier in October, the Journal reported that Chinese hackers accessed the networks of U.S. broadband providers, including Verizon Communications, AT&T and Lumen Technologies,

Unlock the secrets of stock market success and challenge the status quo with our pre-market live stream. Contrary to mainstream media's grim predictions, we're unraveling the misleading narrative about the market's overvaluation using insights from the Shiller PE ratio and small-cap rally data. Discover why historical patterns, such as the Russell 2000's behavior post-election, indicate a bright future for market gains. We'll also reveal how semiconductor stocks and gradual interest rate reductions are poised to catalyze growth, potentially igniting a significant market rise. Equip yourself with the knowledge to navigate these promising growth opportunities and become a savvy investor in the weeks ahead.But that's not all—take your trading strategies to the next level as we dissect Tesla's recent stock movements and the critical resistance point of $340. Gain a deeper understanding of how market makers influence these movements and the pivotal breakout moments that can lead to substantial profits. By examining detailed chart patterns, you'll learn how to recognize opportunities even in volatile market conditions. Join us for a masterclass in trading acumen, where you'll discover how to capitalize on shifts in market dynamics and potentially break through barriers for financial success.Support the show

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial review some interesting VIX option trades around the election and around inauguration day in 2025 compared to the next few months options action. When young people say home ownership dreams are dead is that true? Surprising numbers to compare inflation adjusted costs. Plus, on Friday the market swung from down over 1% to up almost 1% as we continue to be in a buy the dip regime. Later discussing the evolving Fed rate cut expectations and why it shouldn't be a surprise. Finally, they go bring up container shipping costs rising again and what that means for inflation, the Presidential election market cycle, history of interest rates, and more.   Looking at VIX trades far out of the money around election and inauguration day Are retail investors making bets on a rise in volatility due to the election? Why trading VIX options can be frustrating and may be misused by retail traders Home ownership dreams dead for young people? Comparing a monthly mortgage payment today on an inflation adjusted basis to historical Home prices compared on an inflation adjusted basis History of interest rates over 5000 years Container shipping costs on the rise Share buybacks at highest level over the last couple years and what that means for earnings Friday's huge market reversal going from down to up in the last hour Fed rate cut expectations through the end of 2024 down from 7 cuts to 1 cut 4th year of the Presidential cycle and the S&P 500 Index What Shiller Cape ratio means for returns over the next 10 years Cape PE ration and Price to Free Cash Flow   Mentioned in this Episode   History of Interest Rates book by Sidney Homer and Richard Sylla https://amzn.to/3V3TNEJ   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag     Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com

In this week's episode, Matt Robison and I delve into the essential lesson from renowned economist Robert Shiller: don't get swept away by stock market hype. Join us as we explore the implications of the Shiller PE ratio, currently standing at a lofty "34," we unpack Shiller's groundbreaking research and its practical applications for investors.With a focus on the importance of valuation and maintaining a well-diversified portfolio, we emphasize the need for specificity in financial planning, particularly as you approach retirement or set specific financial goals. Shiller's insights remind us to steer clear of short-term hype and instead prioritize long-term fundamentals, ensuring confidence and resilience in navigating market volatility. So, whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, remember to stay focused, stay diversified, and stay the course for long-term success.Are you ready to create your ideal lifestyle? Let's Connect.Learn more about Mike and my services at https://www.mortonfinancialadvice.com and connect at https://www.linkedin.com/in/mwsmorton/

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, discuss the Fed and Powell press conference market reaction. Plus, they look at META and Apple option's implied volatilities did or didn't predict the post earnings moves. 1994-95 experience in Fed rates and bond yields compared to today. Later, they set the record straight on what NAV erosion is, why the Shiller PE may not be predictive of markets, low response rates to economic surveys, and correlation between CPI and shipping container rates.   Fed Meeting Powell press conference roiled markets for all of 1 day Who is right, the bond market or the stock market on rates? Typical moves in bond yields around fed meetings and outside of fed meetings The Fed Funds rate and the 10-year treasury bond yield aren't as related as you think Looking back at the 1994-95 Fed rate hiking and easing cycle META blows out earnings and adds the most market cap ever in one day Looking at META options implied volatility pre-earnings to see if it got it right Reviewing Apple's ATM straddle, implied volatility, and post earnings move Confusion around what the meaning of NAV erosion is Total return which includes dividends vs price return. Correlation between CPI year over year change and container shipping rates JOLTS Job Openings Less Turnover Survey response rates drop How economic surveys sample small amounts to gauge total economy Shiller PE CAPE Ratio and predictive power     Mentioned in this Episode:   1994-95 All Over Again in Markets? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/1994-95-all-over-again-in-markets/id1432836154?i=1000590865306   BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics January 2024 employment report https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf     Previous Week's Podcast:   What Option Volatility Means for Markets | Is the Market Too Dovish on Interest Rate Expectations? | Does the Fed Need an Economics Lesson? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/what-option-volatility-means-for-markets-is-the/id1432836154?i=1000642385904   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com   www.zegafinancial.com

Over de regen aan nieuwe all-time highs, de ‘beste beleggingscategorie' als we het over records hebben, de Shiller PE meets rente en de historie van Amerikaanse aandelen.Reageren op deze podcast? Mail naar: vraag.daalder@blackrock.com.

Over permaberen en de rol die de Shiller PE hierin speelt, de ‘comeback' van obligatiemarkten en de reële verliezen die nog resteren, podcasttips en meer.Reageren op deze podcast? Mail naar: vraag.daalder@blackrock.com.

In this week's show: A look at market valuations with the Shiller PE! Our take on Atlas Engineered Products (AEP:TSX)! What is the difference between Net Income and EBITDA? The short case that wiped out BILLIONSin value overnight! and MORE...

Kerry Craig is the Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan. Based in Melbourne, Kerry and Owen sat down in the Rask studio to talk about everything that's happening in the economy, stock market, bond market and everything that fits in between. Topics covered with Kerry Craig from J.P. Morgan: What does your day job entail, Kerry? Can you provide an overview of what we've seen from global markets over the past 2-3 years? Let's zoom into the UK for a few minutes and what we've seen there over the past 12 months and 12 days. Few people outside of a commerce degree or CFA would have heard of a gilt. How do you make sense of what we've seen? The US stock market has entered a bear market, why is that? Have US earnings come back to such an extent to warrant the sell-off? Shiller PE? Versus the US market, Aussie equities (down 10%) haven't been hit as hard as the US (down 17%) in 2022. What's been driving our performance relative to the US market? Has the Aussie earnings outlook been as impacted? This month the RBA bumped interest rates by 0.25% — and the stock market jumped 3.5%. Was it unexpected? What did you make of the call? Recession. There is talk — and lots of it — saying we're headed to a recession here in Australia. What's your view? Do you think we'll enter a recession? What would be the signal to prove your viewpoint wrong? Over the ultra-long term, the Australian share market has been one of the best performers. Have you ever considered what makes Australia so special? What 2-3 key signals you are watching for the remainder of the year to gauge how we'll enter 2023? If you were a student of macroeconomics today, who are 3 people you would follow or read to make sense of markets? Podcast resources ASK A QUESTION Kerry on LinkedIn JP Morgan Say thanks to our tremendous sponsors Join Selfwealth and get 5 free ASX trades! The Australian Investors Podcast's official broker is SelfWealth. Over 125,000 smart investors use SelfWealth to invest and trade ASX shares, ETFs and global stocks. Rask's Investors Podcast listeners can join today and get $9.50 trades! Join Selfwealth and get free trades Join inside The Intelligent Investor & save This podcast is brought to you by The Intelligent Investor, Australia's premier investment research membership service. Use the code “RASK”, to get $100 off your annual membership or get a free 15-day trial (no credit card details required):  Click here for a free 15-day trial  Click here to join Intelligent Investor today ($100 off) The information on this website and in our podcasts is general financial advice only. That means, the advice does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of that, you should consider if the advice is appropriate to you and your needs, before acting on the information. In addition, you should obtain and read the product disclosure statement (PDS) before making a decision to acquire a financial product. If you don't know what your needs are, you should consult a trusted and licensed financial adviser who can provide you with personal financial product advice. Please read our Terms & Conditions and Financial Services Guide before using this website.

The National Energy Market failed this week, so we invited Western Australian energy expert Katharine McKenzie on to get her thoughts. Katherine runs an energy consultancy after years working for the West Australian government on energy policy, including decisions not to join the National Energy Market.View the presentation slides here:https://nucleuswealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Australian-electricity-meltdown.pptx.pdfThere are effectively 3 energy markets in Australia:* Western Australia where wholesale prices averaged $68/MWh over the last week.* Northern Territory where wholesale prices are around $70/MWh* The rest of Australia where wholesale prices were fixed at $300/MWh because they were spiking into the thousands and then the AEMO had to step in to force productionTo listen in podcast form click here: https://nucleuswealth.com/podcasts/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=podcastGet an obligation-free portfolio recommendation to see how we would invest for you: https://portal.nucleuswealth.com/register/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=podcastLearn more about the hosts: https://nucleuswealth.com/people/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=podcastFind us on social media: https://www.facebook.com/NucleusWealthhttps://twitter.com/NucleusWealthhttps://www.linkedin.com/company/nucleuswealth/Nucleus Wealth is an Australian Investment & Superannuation fund that can help you reach your financial goals through transparent, low cost, ethically tailored portfolios. To find out more head to https://nucleuswealth.com/The information on this podcast contains general information and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Damien Klassen is an authorised representative of Nucleus Wealth Management. Nucleus Wealth is a business name of Nucleus Wealth Management Pty Ltd (ABN 54 614 386 266 ) and is a Corporate Authorised Representative of Nucleus Advice Pty Ltd - AFSL 515796

In this investment podcast, Nucleus Wealth Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, Financial Crime Intelligence, Nathan Lynch, and Senior Financial Adviser, Samuel Kerr, delved deep into the world of money laundering. Nathan Lynch explained how dark money has infected the lives of ordinary people – and tainted Australian democracy.Australia is awash with dirty money. It flows through our economy, keeps banks running, powers big business, puts coffee on restaurant tables, seeps into clubs, pubs, sport, the art world and anywhere that value is moved. It infiltrates real estate, costs billions in policing, and takes a terrible toll on Australian lives.Agenda:Australia's failure to sign onto global anti-money laundering rulesMoney laundering into Australian propertyInternational perceptions of AustraliaWill a new government finally lead to reform?View the presentation slides here:https://nucleuswealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/The-Lucky-Laundry.pdfTo listen in podcast form click here: https://nucleuswealth.com/podcasts/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=podcastGet an obligation-free portfolio recommendation to see how we would invest for you: https://portal.nucleuswealth.com/register/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=podcastLearn more about the hosts: https://nucleuswealth.com/people/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=podcastFind us on social media:https://www.facebook.com/NucleusWealthhttps://twitter.com/NucleusWealthhttps://www.linkedin.com/company/nucleuswealth/Nucleus Wealth is an Australian Investment & Superannuation fund that can help you reach your financial goals through transparent, low cost, ethically tailored portfolios. To find out more head to https://nucleuswealth.com/The information on this podcast contains general information and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Damien Klassen is an authorised representative of Nucleus Wealth Management. Nucleus Wealth is a business name of Nucleus Wealth Management Pty Ltd (ABN 54 614 386 266 ) and is a Corporate Authorised Representative of Nucleus Advice Pty Ltd - AFSL 515796

In this investment podcast, Nucleus Wealth Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, Buyers Advocate, Media Commentator and Economist, Catherine Cashmore, Chief Economist, Leith van Onselen and Senior Financial Adviser, Samuel Kerr, will discuss whether a crash is in the future for Australian property.View the presentation slides here:https://nucleuswealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Is-there-a-property-crash-brewing.pdfAgenda: * Current Affordability* Interest rate forecasts* Impact on Aussie households and economy* Is there a property crash brewing?* Investment implicationsTo listen in podcast form click here: https://nucleuswealth.com/podcasts/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=podcastGet an obligation-free portfolio recommendation to see how we would invest for you: https://portal.nucleuswealth.com/register/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=podcastLearn more about the hosts: https://nucleuswealth.com/people/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=podcastFind us on social media: https://www.facebook.com/NucleusWealthhttps://twitter.com/NucleusWealthhttps://www.linkedin.com/company/nucleuswealth/Nucleus Wealth is an Australian Investment & Superannuation fund that can help you reach your financial goals through transparent, low cost, ethically tailored portfolios. To find out more head to https://nucleuswealth.com/The information on this podcast contains general information and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Damien Klassen is an authorised representative of Nucleus Wealth Management. Nucleus Wealth is a business name of Nucleus Wealth Management Pty Ltd (ABN 54 614 386 266 ) and is a Corporate Authorised Representative of Nucleus Advice Pty Ltd - AFSL 515796

In this investment podcast, Nucleus Wealth Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, Chief Strategist, David Lewellyn Smith, and Senior Financial Adviser, Samuel Kerr, look at the impending shock to electricity prices in Australia and the implications of that. View the presentation slides here:https://nucleuswealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Australia-electricity-shock.pdfAgenda: The Preposterous Australian Energy Shock* Global prices for key energy inputs hit home* A brief history of gas markets* Why Australia is different* What to do about it* Investment implicationsTo listen in podcast form click here: https://nucleuswealth.com/podcasts/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=podcastGet an obligation-free portfolio recommendation to see how we would invest for you: https://portal.nucleuswealth.com/register/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=podcastLearn more about the hosts: https://nucleuswealth.com/people/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=podcastFind us on social media: https://www.facebook.com/NucleusWealthhttps://twitter.com/NucleusWealthhttps://www.linkedin.com/company/nucleuswealth/Nucleus Wealth is an Australian Investment & Superannuation fund that can help you reach your financial goals through transparent, low cost, ethically tailored portfolios. To find out more head to https://nucleuswealth.com/The information on this podcast contains general information and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Damien Klassen is an authorised representative of Nucleus Wealth Management. Nucleus Wealth is a business name of Nucleus Wealth Management Pty Ltd (ABN 54 614 386 266 ) and is a Corporate Authorised Representative of Nucleus Advice Pty Ltd - AFSL 515796

In this investment podcast, Nucleus Senior Financial Adviser Samuel Kerr, Chief Economist Leith van Onselen, and Chief Strategist David Llewellyn-Smith gave an update on the state of the Australian economy that the new government is receiving.View the presentation slides here:https://nucleuswealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Podcast_slides.pdfAgenda:Current economic conditions superficially good.Outlook poor due to rising inflation and interest rates.Cost of living pressure biting.Lots of factors out of Labor's control.Economy set to deteriorate sharply as household consumption dives.Labor likely to be blamed when proverbial hits the fan.Risks Labor once again being tagged as “poor economic managers”.To listen in podcast form click here: https://nucleuswealth.com/podcasts/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=podcastGet an obligation-free portfolio recommendation to see how we would invest for you: https://portal.nucleuswealth.com/register/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=podcastLearn more about the hosts: https://nucleuswealth.com/people/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=podcastFind us on social media:https://www.facebook.com/NucleusWealthhttps://twitter.com/NucleusWealthhttps://www.linkedin.com/company/nucleuswealth/Nucleus Wealth is an Australian Investment & Superannuation fund that can help you reach your financial goals through transparent, low cost, ethically tailored portfolios. To find out more head to https://nucleuswealth.com/The information on this podcast contains general information and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Damien Klassen is an authorised representative of Nucleus Wealth Management. Nucleus Wealth is a business name of Nucleus Wealth Management Pty Ltd (ABN 54 614 386 266 ) and is a Corporate Authorised Representative of Nucleus Advice Pty Ltd - AFSL 515796

In this investment podcast, Nucleus Wealth Chief Investment Officer Damien Klassen, Senior Financial Adviser Samuel Kerr, and Chief Strategist David Llewellyn-Smith will discuss whether markets are correctly pricing in a large stimulus package from China and what the consequences will be if it is not forthcoming.View the presentation slides here:https://nucleuswealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/China-Blind-Spot.pdfAgenda: Is the great China reckoning upon us?China's property crashCan China beat OMICRON?Monetary and fiscal policy pushing on a stringThe impossible trinityThe next shoe to dropYuan, yuan, yuan!Implications for marketsTo listen in podcast form click here: https://nucleuswealth.com/podcasts/?u...Get an obligation-free portfolio recommendation to see how we would invest for you: https://portal.nucleuswealth.com/regi...Learn more about the hosts: https://nucleuswealth.com/people/?utm...Find us on social media: https://www.facebook.com/NucleusWealthhttps://twitter.com/NucleusWealthhttps://www.linkedin.com/company/nucl...Nucleus Wealth is an Australian Investment & Superannuation fund that can help you reach your financial goals through transparent, low cost, ethically tailored portfolios. To find out more head to https://nucleuswealth.com/The information on this podcast contains general information and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Damien Klassen is an authorised representative of Nucleus Wealth Management. Nucleus Wealth is a business name of Nucleus Wealth Management Pty Ltd (ABN 54 614 386 266 ) and is a Corporate Authorised Representative of Nucleus Advice Pty Ltd - AFSL 515796

Today, my friend Nick Maggiulli (COO of Ritholtz Wealth Management & former data scientist, as well as author of Of Dollars & Data and his new book, Just Keep Buying) joined me to talk about something that's been (justifiably) freaking me out a little bit lately. To boil it down to its most layman's terms is the government's money printing the reason why stocks and homes are worth so much more now, and does that mean we're headed for a crash?  More to the point: What the hell do we do about it? I think you'll enjoy the little history lesson throwback (Kansas farmland in the 1970s, anyone?), the explanation of quantitative easing and expansionary monetary policy (I wish my Econ 101 professor could see my B+ self now), and—most importantly—the conversation I had with Nick about what we're supposed to make of all this. Here's the Politico article referenced. Point of clarification: We reference the S&P 500's PE ratio (25 as of this recording) and Shiller PE ratio, or CAPE ratio (36 as of this recording), in this episode, and (somewhat confusingly) switch between the two in the conversation. Nick originally describes the CAPE ratio, and then I ask him his opinion of the current PE ratio. FOLLOW ALONG Money with Katie Blog Money with Katie Instagram Money with Katie Twitter Sign up for the Newsletter! FULL EPISODE TRANSCRIPTS AT HTTPS://PODCAST.MONEYWITHKATIE.COM

In today's investment webinar, Nucleus Wealth's Head of Investments Damien Klassen, Head of Operations Shelley George, and Senior Financial Advisor Mark Monteiro shed light on how Trump broke the Shiller P/E ratio, and how we'd suggest fixing itFor many value investors, the Shiller Price/Earnings ratio is the holy grail. There are a number of problems with the ratio which are making it look way more expensive than it is. If we fix just some of the least contentious issues, the Shiller P/E looks almost 25% cheaper.View the presentation slides: https://nucleuswealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Shiller-pe.pdfOn the agenda:Background on the Shiller P/E and why it's been distortedThe simple changesThe complex changesInvestment outlookRead our articles on the topic: https://nucleuswealth.com/articles/trump-broke-the-shiller-pe-here-is-a-simple-fix/ https://nucleuswealth.com/articles/cape-crusader-advanced-version/To listen in podcast form click here: https://nucleuswealth.com/podcasts/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=podcastGet an obligation-free portfolio recommendation to see how we would invest for you: https://portal.nucleuswealth.com/register/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=podcastLearn more about the hosts: https://nucleuswealth.com/people/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=podcastFind us on social media:https://www.facebook.com/NucleusWealth/​https://twitter.com/NucleusWealth​https://linkedin.com/company/nucleusw...​Nucleus Wealth is an Australian Investment & Superannuation fund that can help you reach your financial goals through transparent, low cost, ethically tailored portfolios. To find out more head to https://nucleuswealth.com/?utm_source...​.The information on this podcast contains general information and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Damien Klassen and Tim Fuller are an authorised representative of Nucleus Wealth Management. Nucleus Wealth is a business name of Nucleus Wealth Management Pty Ltd (ABN 54 614 386 266 ) and is a Corporate Authorised Representative of Nucleus Advice Pty Ltd - AFSL 515796

QuickFS Link: https://quickfs.net/?via=focused​ Twitter: @Focusedcompound Email: info@focusedcompounding.com Focused Compounding is an exclusive, members-only site for buy and hold value investors. Inside, you will find research writeups written by hedge fund manager, Geoff Gannon. Experience all this in the company of investors who follow the principles of Buffett, Munger, and Fisher instead of the whims of the crowd. Please read our Disclaimer: https://focusedcompounding.com/discla

At a time where several asset classes are at all-time highs, there's a lot of talk about whether we're in a bubble. That, coupled with crypto assets falling to ~half of their highs, prompted Cal and Steph to dive in to try to answer this question.In this episode, they discuss the markings of past bubbles, the innovation hype cycle, the difficulty in profiting from nascent innovations, the importance of educating yourself and building your own conviction behind your decisions, managing your psychology (offense vs defense),  the cyclical nature of market cycles, and of course... the burning question of whether they think we're in a bubble today.They also share how they've fared in crypto and how they're thinking about investing moving forward (including Cal's foray into de-fi)Recommended resources include the books "The Simple Path to Wealth" and "A Random Walk Down Wallstreet", as well as economic indicators like the Shiller PE ratio: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe*** NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE *** :)

Warren Buffett is currently sitting on about $150 billion in cash. Could this mean that doomsday — or a major market correction — is coming? Most of the time, successful investing is a waiting game. Just as there are poor times to sell your stocks, there are poor times to buy them as well. And sitting on cash while you wait for a better opportunity is often one of the best investing decisions that you can make. As Rule #1 investors, we try to invest in companies that have at least a 50% margin of safety, meaning that there is at least a 50% upside between the company’s stock price and its true value. When valuations are as high as they currently are, though, it becomes difficult to find any quality companies that exhibit this margin of safety. Looking at the Shiller PE ratio, prices have only been this high twice in the past 140 years. The first time they got this high was in 1929. The second time was in 1999. But we might not be here for much longer.  Following the smart money — defined as money from big-time investors who know the market better than anyone — is rarely a bad idea, and right now, these investing gurus aren’t putting a lot of money into the market. Instead, the majority of the money flowing into the market right now is coming from retail investors. While these retail investors are buying stocks faster than ever before, the big investing gurus are sitting on their cash. This alone is a pretty good indication that right now might not be the best time to buy into the market. As Rule #1 investors, we like to find companies that are solid enough to survive and thrive no matter what the market does. When a major market correction, as the one that is very likely on the horizon drives the price of these companies down, the opportunity for great returns is higher than ever. Will the stock market crash? What are you going to do if it does? Today, Phil and Danielle discuss what investors should look out for in the stock market, and how to prepare for a potential doomsday. This Stock Market Crash Survival Guide will help you prepare for the next market crash and help you cash in when the market drops: https://bit.ly/3dDUfnF Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, the coaches discuss whether the markets are currently in a 'bubble' or not.  The Shiller P/E ratio is the second-highest it's ever been, valuations are extreme for many companies and the technical charts are at all-time highs.  But, that alone doesn't determine whether the market is indeed in a bubble. We examine 5 different areas and discuss them including valuation, a plausible future, irrational exuberance, the Fed Put backdrop, and the easy money that has been made by some recently to determine the answer to this question.  Before that, we analyze the markets during our skyline. Netflix reported earnings on Tuesday and gapped up towards all-time price highs breaking out of a long term channel. That news alone gave the stock market a boost, and prices broke out across many indices. We discuss the news, price action, and more during this weekly segment. Lastly, Coach Mark asks Matt and Tim to guess the greatest quarterbacks of all-time. This weekend, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady go head to head in the NFC championship game, and they are two of the greats. Where do they and others fall on the list of top 10 greats? Listen in to find out in this fun segment. 1:40 Market Skyline 33:30 Bubble 1:24:10 Top 10 QB

In today’s episode of the Cambria Fund Profile Series, Meb discusses the Cambria Global Value ETF (GVAL). Meb walks through why it’s important for investors to consider valuations in their process, and how investors can be thinking about portfolio positioning given stock market valuations around the world. He offers a historical perspective on market valuations through the lens of the Shiller PE ratio, often referred to as the Shiller CAPE ratio. He covers the home bias phenomenon, which shows that investors tend to invest more heavily in their home countries. He talks about why this bias should be avoided, and that going back to 1980, US and foreign stocks have traded at similar valuations. He goes on to point out that, from a valuation perspective, no specific market is any more special and deserving of a long-term valuation premium than any other. As the episode winds down, Meb walks through the portfolio construction process of the ETF. All this and more in this Cambria Fund Profile Series episode, featuring the Cambria Global Value ETF (GVAL).

What To Do With Valuations Near All Time Highs Out of everything I do, I love helping people learn and improve their skills and knowledge the most. But talking to students and clients, and being with them when they finally “get it”, and when concepts, terminology and techniques begin clicking into place, is absolutely amazing to be a part of. Learn The Top 7 Tips I've Developed Over The Last 12+ Years That Will Help You Find Great Stocks Faster for FREE by clicking the link below.. https://valueinvestingjourney.clickfunnels.com/optin-26253949 Because I’m a huge believer that once you have the proper value investing foundation down – or any skills basic foundations – it will make things much easier to learn down the road for you. Get your 5 Free Gifts that will help you become a better value investor faster by going here - https://riveraholdings.activehosted.com/f/1 If you’re learning about value investing, Value Investing Journey is dedicated to developing your knowledge, skills, and confidence as a value investor. Download A Free Copy of My Acclaimed Value Investing Education Book How To Value Invest By clicking the link below… https://mastermind.valueinvestingjourney.com/vijfreebook To get more updated videos like this make sure to subcribe to my youtube channel in the link below… https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPU_d18Co-t8Bhmuey33W-w?sub_confirmation=1 Here are three of our most popular playlists with viewers… • Basic Value Investing, Finance, And Investing Education Playlist go here - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLfmorMVSKq1c5QRIMjccoVBOuGkeKzKCY • Value Investing Case Study Videos Playlist go here - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLfmorMVSKq1edLBLeG2-ESJkgc_q589aR • Value Investing In Your Car Episodes - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLfmorMVSKq1djyTsL0LSmPbGr9385MANE To listen to our podcasts, use the following links… • Value Investing In Your Car - https://anchor.fm/jason-rivera • I Love Value Investing - https://anchor.fm/jason-rivera2/ Also, make sure to check out our website – https://www.valueinvestingjourney.com/– which has twice been named a Top 50 Value Investing Blog In The World. If you want more great info now make sure to go here to sign up to our mailing list and get my first book How To Value Invest for free - https://mastermind.valueinvestingjourney.com/vijfreebook Here are the additional resources related to this topic: Shiller P/E - https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe S&P 500 Has Never Been More Expensive - https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-median-s-p-stock-has-never-been-more-expensive-11598202000 Buffett Indicator - https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php Masterclass - https://www.valueinvestingjourney.com/value-investing-masterclass-lifetime-access/ Five Free Gifts - https://riveraholdings.activehosted.com/f/1 What’d you think of the topic above? Do you have any tips of your own you think I missed? Let me know in the comments below. #investing #business #finance --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/jason-rivera/support

If you listen to CNBC or Bloomberg you probably hear analysts talking about how the Forward PE Ratio is higher than historical averages on the stock market. But how are they figuring these numbers? How does the drop in earnings in the S&P 500 in 2020 due to Covid19 compare with earnings drops in 2008 and 2009? How long did it take them to recover?   What is a Forward PE Ratio? How is the Forward PE Ratio calculated? What is the Earnings Yield? How is Earnings Yield calculated? Drop in earnings 2008 vs 2020 and years to recover Are Forward PE Ratios a good predicter of future returns? Cape Ratio or Shiller PE   Mentioned  in  this  Episode:     Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr   Contact Derek www.razorwealth.com

ถามอีก กับดร.จิติพล พฤกษาเมธานันท์ Investment Strategy Director บล.ไทยพาณิชย์ คุยอะไรกันบ้าง? - ตอนนี้หุ้นไทยแพงหรือถูก? - ทำไม Shiller P/E ถึงใช้วัดความถูกแพงได้? - บริษัทที่มีผลการดำเนินงานยาวไม่เพียงพอ cycle ทำยังไง? - เมื่อไหร่ที่ควรใช้ Trailing (P/E ย้อนหลัง)? - ภาวะเศรษฐกิจ มีผลต่อค่า PE ยังไง? - ทำไมต่างชาติเทขายมาตลอด ทั้ง ๆ ที่ Shiller P/E ตลาดไทยยังไม่แพง? - การดูพวกค่า P/E ต่าง ๆ จะสามารถนี้ช่วยลด bias ในมุมไหนได้บ้าง? - Shiller P/E หาดูได้จากที่ไหน หรือต้องคำนวณเอง? ข้อเสียคืออะไร? - Adjusted P/E ในเมื่อที่เป็นข้อมูลในอดีต จะทำกำไรได้ยังไง? - ตลาดประเทศไหนที่ตอนนี้ถือว่าแพง? - สามารถเอา P/E หุ้นรายตัว เทียบกับ P/E sector ได้หรือไม่? - บ้านเราไม่มีหุ้นเทคโนโลยี แสดงว่า P/B ก็น่าจะใ้ช้ได้ใช่หรือไม่? - อีก 20 ปีข้างหน้า ค่า P/E จะประมาณเท่าไร? - ถ้าต่างชาติจะเข้ามาลงทุนบ้านเรา เค้ามองอะไรอยู่? - Earning Yield Gap คืออะไร ในภาวะแบบนี้ยังใช้ได้หรือไม่? โดย อิก บรรพต ธนาเพิ่มสุข, AFPT

Hi everyone….. Seems a day hasn’t gone by this path month where someone doesn’t ask me, think its a good time to buy into the stock market now? I mean a market that dropped 30% seems like it’s a good bargain, right? Well….let’s do a little homework on that and see what you think.   I like to start with a couple of indicators. I’ve shown these before in previus vidos cause they do a good job of looking at the market from a 30,000 foot view.   One is Shiller PE ratio.   I like this because it’s an inflation adjusted S&P 500 index.   Price earnings ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years, known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio)   I won’t go too deep there, but what we want to do is look at the overall index and have a quick look to see if it’s over or under valued.   The PE ratio as of today is sitting at 26.14.       To understand what that is telling us we need to know a couple of things.   What is the median for this ratio – in other words over the past century, what has the average?   The Mean is 16.7 – just for clarification, the MEAN is what we’d typically call the average, it’s adding up all the numbers and divide by how many numbers you added up.   If you added up 10 random numbers, 5, 12, 17, 2 etc, then added all those numbers together, then divided by 10, you’d get an average of those numbers. That gives us a MEAN. So 16.7 is the mean. Then there is the Median which is 15.77 – The "median" is the "middle" value in the list of numbers in numerical order, finding the middle number. So taking those same 10 numbers as an example, put them in numerical order, 2,5,9,12,18 etc…then you find the middle number between them all to get the MEDIAN. Then you can see that lowest the indicator has ever been was in 1920, at 4.78 And the maximum ratio was hit in 1999 at the peak of the dot com boom and bust at 44.19 So, looking at the current graph again, we see we are still significantly above the mean or the average. For some perspective, we were about 29 on this indicator before the recent Corona Virus crash.   We dropped 30%, it came back up a bit, and now we’re down about 20% from the highs, and that dropped the indicator about 3 points to its current level of 26.         Another chart to quickly take look at is the GDP to Market Indicator.   There is a lot of story to this chart and we’ll have to get into one day, but the basic idea here is to see if the market is overvalued or undervalued based on GDP.     GDP is gross domestic product which is basically the entire economy. It’s all the production of the whole country.   Since the stock market is essentially based on the economy, we want to see if the market is high or low in value as it relates to GDP.   Bottom line is – This graph suggests we are still paying more for stocks than they will produce.   Our total output is just over 20 trillion, and we are paying over 30 trillion for that output if you were to buy the Total Market Wilshire Index.     This means we are paying 129% of GDP when buying into the Wilshire index.   That quickly tells us that at the current price, even after the 20% drop, still may not be a good value.   As it stands now the rate of return on stocks would be about 0.1% and this includes the 2.7% projected dividends.   When looking at both of these graphs what seem apparent is that even though we had a 30% drop and now hovering at a 20% loss for the year.   And our rate of return of a 10th of 1% is hardly worth the risk.    We seem to still be overvalued.   You know, I noticed this when we hit that 30% mark.   I had read a bunch of FB posts and saw some YT videos saying, wow this is a good time to get in, a 30% drop!   You can see from this 5-year chart how we pretty much jumped off a cliff.       The low for this mini-crash hit on March 20th when the Dow went from over 29,000 down to 19,173.   A 30% whack in just a few weeks.           You might ask, when was the last time the DOW was at this level?   You have to go back to Dec 2, 2016.       In other words, if you bought at the low of the crash, and assuming you bought into the DOW, you would be buying at 2016 prices.   Seem like a good deal, right?   Well might be, who knows, depends on when or if we get back to where we were, and how long it takes to get there.   If we look at the Shiller p/e back then, we were right at about 22 - 24 on the indicator, still high valuation of the mean of 16 and higher than today’s indicator at 20.   In other words, back in 2016 to get 1.00 of earrings people were paying 22-24 dollars.   If there was no growth and you got the 1.00 every year per share, it would take you 22 years to get your money back.   Today, after the market drop its still indicating it would take 20 years to get your money back.   Most investors who are willing to take the risk of the stock market like to get their money back or payback in 7 years or less.   That’s about a 10% rate of return. Now not all return comes just from the revenues or dividends. It can come from growth too.   Both play an important factor in determining what price a stock is worth paying.       So, one could say that even buying in 2016, wasn’t that great of a bargain either.   In fact, I found it hard back then to find really good values in companies I’m interested in owning.   If you did not buy back then, for the last 4 years you might think how dumb you were for not buying in 2016 as the market continued to rise.   Then in one fell swoop of a germ nearly 4 years of growth was wiped out.   4 years wasted, back to where you were.   We call those compounding periods, and missing out on even one of them can be a huge difference in your wealth.   Well, with a little recovery, we will see where we go from here…..   Today, is April 22nd, the DOW is at 23,445.         The last time we were at these levels was, Oct 27 or 2017.     So, if you had invested back in Oct of 2017, you would have rode a wave of growth up for just over 2 years or about 27 months, and again, you’re right back to where you started.   Now let me get get to the original question.   Is the market a good buy right now?   Based on everything we’ve looked at, and with a projected growth rate of 0.1% it doesn’t seem to poised for great returns.   We were due for some sort of correction anyway, but maybe this virus hasn’t pushed a correction far enough.   Now look, I love a good economy, that last thing I want to do is see a market crash and a depression.   I’m merely pointing out that the market as a whole, as an index, isn’t necessarily a good buy right now.   That doesn’t mean individual stock companies that have suffered a great deal more, might not be good buys.   The question is the recovery time for some of these companies and all the unknows.   For Instance, travel, you’ve got airlines, hotels, and cruise ships all really taking a beating.   Airlines are off 50% or more.   Delta last year at this time was trading at 58 and now it’s at 22 and a half   Is that a good value, a bargain?   It’s all about recovery time.   What we don’t know is how much travel will be affected.   What about the possibly of fewer flights, empty seats, not being able to fill planes to capacity for social distancing?   I mean we have a lot of unknowns.   Royal Caribbean a year ago was 122, now it’s just above 34.     Seems like a bargain.   Until we see the revenues coming in, we have no idea if this is a bargain or if it needs to go down another 30% or more.   What you can’t assume is just because a stock was 122, that it’s a bargain at 34.   It may have been way overpriced at 122, and still could be at 34. We really don’t know until the cruise ships start cruising again.   We are pretty certain that their revenue, earnings, and profit will be down significantly, and likely their debt up.   Will it be months, days, or years, or will they ever recover?   Great question, and until you have the answer, there is no way to evaluate what a good price for this company is.   As a whole if you’re looking at the index, it’s still not a very good value.   With that said, there may be some companies within the index that are looking good, have a clear path to growth and profitability, while others may not rebound as quickly or at all.   If you think you want in, then please, do your homework! We’re seeing a lot chatter out there and guys trying do some day trading.   But if you’re looking for value, Buffet style, as I like to call it, it’s still not easy.   Buffet’s partner Charlie Munger did a recent interview and he basically said they aren’t doing much of anything right now.   He said, “I think there are lots of troubles coming,   One thing about Buffet and Munger is they like bargains.   They like to buy wonderful companies on sale.   Buffet was a buyer in Airlines a couple of years ago.   Obviously, no one, not even the guru of investing, could have predicted this virus,   However, he’s not selling them, and interestingly enough he’s not buying them either.   If he’s going to hold a position, normally he would add more shares when the price hits his valuation mark.   So, either he may not hold them, or they haven’t hit what he thinks is a good value right now.   Again, they are hard to evaluate until we get going again can see revenue, and profit, the amount debt they will be carrying from this debacle and the kind of numbers that tell us if a company is going to make us any money or not.   I think Buffet will keep them, until or unless the story changes, in other words, if why he bought them is still the story, then he’ll likely keep them and add to them at some point, when there is a way to make money on them again.   Think about this, he has enough money sitting in cash that he could buy the four major airlines right now, but he’s not.   I think he’s waiting this out. Munger said there is still trouble ahead.   The other side to this, is they still might not be a bargain.   Some have calculated that we need another 30-40% drop before we get into bargain territory.   This is what I want to talk about on my next video – becaue just because something is cheap, compared to what it was last month, does not mean it’s a bargain.   So….that’s it for this week….   Subscribe   Questions   Comments   Take care                            

Jason Hartman makes his way to Medellin, Colombia to chat with George Gammon about creative real estate investing linked to the Colombian Peso and oil. The two discuss the CAPE ratio and what is cheap in the United States. In our second segment today, Jason is joined by in house economist Thomas Young, to discuss our Presidential Candidates Capital Gains Tax Plans. Do these new Capital Tax Gains Tax Proposals make sense? Key Takeaways:  [3:15] George Gammon, what took you to Medellin, Colombia? Pesos and Oil? [7:05] Real Estate Investor turned reality tv star [9:25] Colombian house flipping [13:30] What is the CAPE ratio or Shiller P/E ratio? [17:15] What is cheap in the United States? [20:35] In house economist, Thomas Young, and capital gains taxation  [23:36] Zero Sum Gain [28:30] The government's tax code currently encourages investors to take the risk, and that risk is sometimes successful and grows the economy Websites: www.JasonHartman.com www.GeorgeGammon.com

Jason Hartman makes his way to Medellin, Colombia to chat with George Gammon about creative real estate investing linked to the Colombian Peso and oil. The two discuss the CAPE ratio and what is cheap in the United States. In our second segment today, Jason is joined by in house economist Thomas Young, to discuss our Presidential Candidates Capital Gains Tax Plans. Do these new Capital Tax Gains Tax Proposals make sense? Key Takeaways:  [3:15] George Gammon, what took you to Medellin, Colombia? Pesos and Oil? [7:05] Real Estate Investor turned reality tv star
 [9:25] Colombian house flipping [13:30] What is the CAPE ratio or Shiller P/E ratio? [17:15] What is cheap in the United States? [20:35] In house economist, Thomas Young, and capital gains taxation 
 [23:36] Zero Sum Gain [28:30] The government's tax code currently encourages investors to take the risk, and that risk is sometimes successful and grows the economy Websites: www.JasonHartman.com www.GeorgeGammon.com

Jason Hartman makes his way to Medellin, Colombia to chat with George Gammon about creative real estate investing linked to the Colombian Peso and oil. The two discuss the CAPE ratio and what is cheap in the United States. In our second segment today, Jason is joined by in house economist Thomas Young, to discuss our Presidential Candidates Capital Gains Tax Plans. Do these new Capital Tax Gains Tax Proposals make sense? Key Takeaways:  [3:15] George Gammon, what took you to Medellin, Colombia? Pesos and Oil? [7:05] Real Estate Investor turned reality tv star
 [9:25] Colombian house flipping [13:30] What is the CAPE ratio or Shiller P/E ratio? [17:15] What is cheap in the United States? [20:35] In house economist, Thomas Young, and capital gains taxation 
 [23:36] Zero Sum Gain [28:30] The government’s tax code currently encourages investors to take the risk, and that risk is sometimes successful and grows the economy Websites: www.JasonHartman.com www.GeorgeGammon.com

In episode 193 we welcome our guest, Chris Brightman. Meb and Chris start the conversation with an evolution of economic and monetary theory over the past decades, and some detail behind Modern Monetary Theory. Chris then expands on inflation, the idea that high inflation is associated with volatile inflation, as well as some ways to protect from high inflation. The pair then get into Research Affiliates’ forward looking asset class return expectations, including, the expectation of a 3.5% real return for the US stock market before any adjustments to valuations and the reality of low and even negative return prospects from fixed income. Chris talks about emerging markets as a potential bright spot. As the conversation winds down, Chris reveals some ways investors can think about implementing the ideas he discusses in the episode, including the literature that shows investors engage in performance chasing, and they’d be far better off taking a buy-and-hold approach to a diversified set of passive instruments. All this and more in episode 193, including a couple of Chris’s  most memorable investments.

McAlvany Weekly Commentary Does shifting interest rates to lowest possible levels tempt us to cheat time? Shiller P/E at nosebleed height of 30.28 – Could it go higher? Alan Newman: Stock market is now the most dangerous in history   The McAlvany Weekly Commentary with David McAlvany and Kevin Orrick Negative rates, Immortality, & Frodo’s Ring November 6, […] The post Negative rates, Immortality, & Frodo’s Ring appeared first on McAlvany Weekly Commentary.

Our guest on this week’s episode of The Long View podcast is nationally renowned retirement researcher Dr. Michael Finke. Michael is Professor of Wealth Management and Frank M. Engle Distinguished Chair in Economic Security at The American College of Financial Services. He joined the College in June 2016 having served since 2006 as a professor and PhD coordinator in the department of personal financial planning at Texas Tech University. From 1999 through 2006, he served as the Director of Graduate Studies at the University of Missouri. Michael has published more than 50 peer review articles with a focus on the value of financial advice, financial planning regulation, investments and individual investor behavior. He was named to the 2012 Investment Advisor IA 25 list and the 2013 and 2014 Investment News Power 20. His research conducted with Wade Pfau, questioning the 4% rule was published in the Journal of Financial Planning and won the 2014 Montgomery-Warschauer award for the most influential article in the publication. He had previously won the award with Thomas Langdon in 2013. He was also selected to present his research on financial literacy and aging at the 2015 MIT Center for Finance and Policy Conference.BackgroundMichael Finke, PhD, CFP bio Finke CV 2013 Investment Advisor IA 25 profile 2013 Investment news Power 20 profileMontgomery-Warshauer AwardWithdrawal Rates“The 4% Rule is Not Safe in a Low-Yield World” by Michael Finke, Ph.D., CFP; Wade D. Pfau Ph.D., CFP; David M. Blanchett CFP, CFA; Journal of Financial Planning; June 2013“Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data” by William ​Bengen; Journal of Financial Planning; October 1994 “Low Bond Yields and Safe Portfolio Withdrawal Rates” by David Blanchett, CFP, CFA; Michael Finke, Ph.D., CFP, and Wade Pfau, Ph.D., CFP; Morningstar Investment Management; January 2013“Reduce Retirement Costs with Deferred Income Annuities Purchased before Retirement” by Michael Finke, Ph.D., CFP and Wade Pfau, Ph.D., CFP; Journal of Financial Planning; July 2015 “Why Advisors Should Use Deferred-Income Annuities” by Michael Finke, Ph.D., CFP; Advisor Perspectives; November 2015“Retirement Income for Life; Here’s a New Way to Get It” by Michael Finke, Ph.D., CFP; Bottom-line Personal; July 2016“Lifetime Income Solutions as a Qualified Default Investment Alternative (QDIA) Focus on Decumulation and Rollover”; Written Testimony of Michael Finke, Chief Academic Officer, The American College of Financial Services; 2018 ERISA Advisory Council, August 2018 Health and Cognitive Decline“Old Age and the Decline in Financial Literacy” presented by Michael Finke at the MIT Center for Finance & Policy; September 2015 “Health and Retirement Study”; National Institute on Aging, Social Security Administration; University of Michigan’s Institute for Social Research “Managing Long-term Care Spending Risks in Retirement” by Michael Finke Ph.D., CFP and Wade Pfau Ph.D., CFP; 2017 “Old Age and the Decline in Financial Literacy” by Michael Finke, Ph.D., CFP, John Howe, Sandra Huston; Management Science; August 2011 “Wealth Shocks and Health Outcomes: Evidence from Stock Market Fluctuations” by Hannes Schwandt; American Economic Journal; October 2018>Retiree Spending“Spending, Relationship Quality, and Life Satisfaction in Retirement” by Michael Finke, Nhat Ho, Sandra J. Huston; 2018 Academic Research Colloquium for Financial Planning & Related Disciplines; September 2017 “Spending in Retirement: Determining the Consumption Gap” by Chris Browning, Ph.D., Tao Guo, Ph.D., Yuanshan Cheng, and Michael Finke, Ph.D., CFP; Journal of Financial Planning “Estimating the True Cost of Retirement” by David Blanchett, CFP, CFA; Morningstar Investment Management; 2013Asset Allocation in Retirement“An Old Friend: The Stock Market's Shiller P/E” by Cliff Asness; AQR; November 2012 Daily Treasury U.S. Real Yield Curve Rates; U.S. Department of the Treasury “Reducing Retirement Income Risk with a Rising Equity Glide-Path” by Wade Pfau and Michael Kitces; SSRN; September 2013 “The Effect of Advanced Age and Equity Value on Risk Preferences” by David Blanchett, Michael Finke, and Michael Guillemette; Journal of Behavioral Finance; January 2018 Equity risk premium data; website of professor Aswath Damodaran; Stern School of Business at New York University Other“The Impact of the Broker-Dealer Fiduciary Standard on Financial Advice” by Michael Finke, Ph.D., CFP, and Thomas P. Langdon, J.D., LL.M., CFP, CFA; Journal of Financial Planning; July 2012

Hi everybody, welcome to another wise money tools video. Glad to have you with me today. So I had a really interesting conversation the other day was, and it may fit some of your situations. You know, I know a couple of you still have some teenagers at home, maybe you're in your, I don't know, early 40s, late 40s, who knows. But this couple very similar situation had a couple teenagers at home. He's got a really good job pays well has a 401k. And he's funding it to the max. So that's pretty common for a lot of people. They have a fairly good size home, and along with it a really good size mortgages. And this is kind of where our conversation started. They're worried about retirement, and having that mortgage payment hanging over their heads for years and years into retirement. So we were just kind of casually asked me, you know, should I take the money out of my 401k and pay off my house? And I got to thinking about that, you know, there's so many variables in answering this question that I thought might be a good conversation for us to have. Because some of you might have a very similar, you know, Outlook or trying to figure some things out like that. So let's look at each of these assets, if you will individually. Let's first take a look at the 401k. Now, there's a couple things to note about the 401k. As you know, it's most likely invested in the stock market. And we've had a really good 10 years in the stock market. In fact, I was thinking the other day I was thinking Man if somebody was in their, you know, mid 20s, got their first job started funding their 401k. They really have no idea what it's like to have some kind of a recession or a bear market. In fact about the worst year we had was right at the end of last year in 2018. The market tumbled and basically lost all the earnings throughout the year kind of turned out to be a breakeven year but still nothing all that devastating. So for a good decade, we've seen this market pretty much be on a decent projector. Okay, so one of the question was, you know, how long is that gonna last I mean is are we gonna be in this situation where the market is just gonna keep on going keep on going for years and years to come? Well, who knows, we may have another year to we may be coming to the end, I don't know. But recessions you know, and bear markets are really a normal part of the economy, we have to expect them at some point. And they're actually kind of good, we're gonna see a typical recession hit at some point. It's probably gonna take a decent chunk of returns and earnings from a lot of people's 401ks. It's possible when a recession hits that somewhere between two and five years, sometimes even more of all the growth that you had over those years can be wiped out. When that market finally takes a breather and falls back into we'll call it normal territory. And what I mean by normal territory, I kind of look at that Shiller P/E ratio as a good overview, kind of a 30,000 foot overview of where we're at. And currently that Shiller P/E is still over 29, which means investors right now are paying $29 for every dollar of earnings. So as an example, let's just pick a company, let's say Walmart, as our example, let's say they make $1 on a share stock well invested right now are paying $29 for that $1. Now to again, for perspective the median P/E the median price earnings ratio is closer to 14 or 16 times earnings. So in other words, dollar earned investors pay somewhere between 14 and 16 times as a median. Now let's contrast that to Amazon. Amazon's price earnings ratio is 93 times earnings. Okay, and apples is right around 8. So you can see there's a lot of variance in the different companies out there. But as a whole, the market is looking at a P/E ratio about 29. And that again, is much higher than it's probably gonna be at some point. So when this market does take a fall, it's gonna be who knows, it could be a year or two might even be just a short time. But what often happens is a market over corrects and drives these P/E ratio is even lower than they should be. That's when buying opportunities are plentiful. And that's when we like to become investors. Okay, so now we look at this 401k. It's probably done very well over the last, you know, 10 years, like we said. When the market finally resets, he's probably gonna take a who knows 15, 20, 30, 50% hit on his account value? How much will that be hard to say. But it wouldn't be far fetched to think that it's gonna have at least a 20 to 30% hit. So let's just say he's got half a million dollars in his 401k. Over these years. He might expect to lose $100,000 or more. Now in 2008, a $500,000 401k dropped to 250,000, or even less, we affectionately called the 401k a 201k because they were literally cut in half for so many people. Okay, so that's the 401k dilemma and what we're looking at, and you know, what's our best move there. Now let's look at the house, he says that they are kind of house poor, in that the mortgage takes up a significant part of their income. Now, let's not beat up on them too much. But as they probably realize, now they would have been much better off getting into a home that wasn't so burdensome as far as the mortgage payments. Now on the flip side, they live in an area where real estate's been doing well and their home value is growing the promise someday, when they retire, unless they have other investment income, they're probably gonna need to access the equity in their home, just to get through retirement. This might require them to either sell the home to get the equity out, or maybe even do a reverse mortgage to supplement their income. Who knows. Now they may have looked out, and they've got more house and they should have bought but the equity appreciation is building capital and again cash that someday they may be able to use. Now on the downside, if we go back to 2008, this type of home little higher end home is are the types of homes that fell dramatically some lost 50% of their value. So that could potentially wipe out a lot of their equity that they've had over the years. Now have to understand one concept about equity. If I were to ask you what rate of return is equity get? So many of you would likely answer that it grows about the rate of home values in your area. And that would make sense, right? But if you live in an area, let's just say where home prices are rising by 3% a year, you might say that equity grows at 3% a year. However, it's really wrong. Okay. Equity gets a 0% rate of return every year, every week, every day forever. You say hi, well, how can that'd be my house goes up? Well, let me prove it to you this way. Let's suppose we have two families, they both buy a home for $300,000 on the same day, same neighborhood, same values, okay. One pays cash. So he has no mortgage, he put the entire purchase price $300,000 into his home. He technically has $300,000 in equity right? Now the other one finances his home 100%. And I know you really can't do that these days. But it's this is just kind of a show my point. So this family technically has no equity as they put no money into the home. Now, in this case, on a $300,000 home this fame, this family's gonna have about a 1500 dollar a month house payment. And then as include taxes insurance, but both families have to pay those costs no matter what. So let's just say that in five years, both homes grow at a average rate of 3% per year. And so now there were $350,000. So both families have increased their net worth, if you will by $50,000. More than obviously they paid for the home. But here's what I want you to see, the equity in their homes actually grew at 0%. You see the family that paid cash for their home, has a home where $350,000 they grew by $50,000. The family who had no equity in their home also grew by $50,000. You see the amount of equity in their home, or the amount of money they put into it had no bearing on the growth of the home's value, the market price of the home is what drove the equity. The point is own your home free and clear or have a mortgage is really not going to have a bearing on the price or the value of your home. Now, you could say that this family that put $300,000 cash into their home had a rate of return over those five years of 16% total, or about 3% a year. The exact Return of the homes market appreciation, the other families paid 1500 dollars per month for five years. That's a total of $90,000 that they've put into payments. Now it's difficult to come up with the exact return because the $90,000 was put in over 60 months, not just from day one at 1500 dollars per month. However, the return on investment would be close to 55% or about 11% a year. So the leverage of using OPM, that's other people's money. In other words, having a mortgage actually enhance the return for this family. Now, here's one thing that I'm adamant about. When it comes to paying off your mortgage, I will never tell someone not to pay off their home, no matter how much better it could be by carrying a mortgage. I'm simply pointing out that there are two sides to the story and you have to do what's best for you and your family. Now, going back to our family in this situation, what they did is they might be regretting having such a stifling mortgage payment. What they may find at the other end, though, is that they've built much more equity and a better return on investment by having a mortgage. So there's always trade offs. I'd prefer to have a low to moderate mortgage, be able to save more money and use your capital to increase your net worth by investing in other opportunities. Which is why we love our banking system, it's a place you can save tax free gives you access to that capital for their investments along the way, when assets or investments go on sale. Okay, so now we have to separate the two assets, we get the 401k, we've got the home, the question comes to me again from this family. Should we take the money out of the 401k to pay off the home and free up the monthly income that they then could save? I think the only way we'll know the perfect answer to this question is to have a crystal ball and see the future. See if the market is going to tank and his 401k is going to lose $100,000 then of course, it'd be really good idea to take that money out now at the peak right? Even after paying taxes, you'd be better off to have his home paid for with money that he pulled out of this 401k. On the flip side, if he pays off his home, and dumps all that money into his home and then his home value drops. He may never be able to sell it and recover his investment. It's also possible that he's been living in the home long enough that even if it dropped by 20% in market price. His mortgage payoff would be low enough that he could recover what he's put in. For instance, maybe bought his home for $500,000 homes now worth 800. He owes $100,000 on a mortgage, he pulls it out of his 401k and pays it off. So he pays off his home. And then let's say his home dropped to $600,000. Well, he can still recover that hundred thousand dollars that he put in to pay off his mortgage. Ultimately, he has to determine which scenario poses the most risk for them. If he pays off his mortgage, have a mortgage payment to save each month. That is if he will, sadly, many people soak up that extra money now that they don't have a house payment and put it into their lifestyle. They end up spending more and buying more stuff, which would make the situation even worse. Now, if the market keeps going up, and the home values keep increasing, he's probably better off doing what he's doing. Now, remember, equity gets a 0% return every single year. If the market tanks, they may wish they had pulled money out at the peak and paid off their house. And now they have a mortgage payment that they were making each month freed up again so that they could invest it and hopefully buy things at lower prices. He and his wife may have this deep down desire to pay off their home no matter what the calculation say. And again, that's a matter of principle and a lifetime goal. There's really nothing wrong with that many people to that even if it's better financially, to have a mortgage. Again, I'll never tell somebody not to do that. The alternative, like I said, is to have a banking system where you can build up your capital thing, you've got options, you have the option to pay off your house, you have the option to be the bank, you have the option to sit on the sidelines when markets are high, then get involved and buy when they go on sell. You have safety liquidity tax advantages, which can add up to more peace of mind and the investing principles that work. Ok. So now see what was posed to me. By the way, this was at a wedding reception, and we had about 10 minutes to talk, which is why I don't know all the details and specifics. But I wanted to throw this out to you and get your take on it. What would you do? What are your values when it comes to your home and retirement savings? It's a great discussion to have because thousands of families are probably facing a similar circumstance, maybe even you. I think we could come up with a good plan with more if we had more specifics. But the best plan of all is to buy a home with a moderate mortgage, save, save, save, build capital and become an educated investor. Then wait for opportunities to come along. And when you can buy $10 bills for $5. But you have to have a process to build your capital, which again, is why the banking system can work for so many people. Okay, so that's it. I'm anxious to hear your comments and your question. If you have direct questions, send them to questions at wise money tools.com. I'll try to answer them just as quick as I can. If you want to just get into the conversation, feel free to leave a comment as well and give an idea of what you would do. If you would like a strategy session where we could talk about your specific situation. You can sign up at the time trade link below. Always subscribe and we love to hear from you. That's it till next time. Thanks for joining me. Take care.

Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of the board of Research Affiliates, LLC, calls in to assess conditions and opportunities around the world. 3:47 “There’s no such thing as a bargain  in the absence of fear” 8:53 Shiller P/E and central banks 13:06 Bubbles in a negative-rate era 20:13 Deficit spending: Does it matter? 24:36 The nature of indexation Subscribe to Grant’s Podcast on iTunes, Stitcher, iHeart Radio and Google Play Music. Grant’s Interest Rate Observer is available at http://www.grantspub.com

For show notes and more info visit www.investedpodcast.com. “The advice, buy and hold, is very good advice, as long as hold means 40 to 60 years.” - Phil Town This week, Phil and Danielle talk about parents buying stocks for children. She has a couple of choices. The first choice is to do what Buffett says to do and buy the US stock index, SPY. Or you can buy individual companies. What would you do for your child? They also talk about the differences between indexes like the S&P 500 or the Russel 2000. The S&P 500 tend to be a little more steady than other indexes. Phil also discusses the Shiller PE ratio and what it means when the ratio is 25 and above for your returns. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

“When we value a company we want to look at a company that has a track record of 10 years. Especially, the last 10 years. IPOs are in the risky biz portfolio for lack of a long track record. ” - Phil Town This week we discuss why we’re in such a wild stock market. The market dropped 15% and is working its way back up. We've got the “Trump Effect” going on and we're in our 10th year of no recession. That's the longest in American history. We’re also at a Shiller PE that hasn’t been this 140 years it's only been where it is now 4 other times. Although Phil is pretty reluctant to talk about it, we do talk about upcoming IPOs and if an IPO is mature enough to do a Rule #1 analysis on them. For show notes and more information visit investedpodcast.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

https://youtu.be/Eo6eiRdwtbQ CAPE-STOCK INVESTMENT STRATEGY This podcast/video/blog is for informational use only.  We are not making investment recommendations.  This is not an appropriate investment for everyone.  As with any investment, please read the prospectus and discuss it with your financial planner. This strategy does not consider your age, risk tolerance, cash needs, RMD distributions or tax consequences.  I am looking not as a total portfolio strategy but a plan for an IRA or Roth IRA account as part of a comprehensive plan. We do monthly trading with this strategy, which can generate considerable capital gains, that's why I recommend using an IRA or Roth IRA account. The purpose is to give some direction to the amount of stocks vs bonds in an account based on the relative value of the market at any given time.  With this, we hope to take advantage of ups and downs in the market by rebalancing and selling stocks when the market is high and buying them when it's relatively low. Some of the best gains are made by buying stocks when the markets are low. The equity (stock) portion of the portfolio could be invested using ETFs but for the large-cap US stock portion of the portfolio we are trying to outperform an index by using 10 undervalued stocks in various industries. As with the rest of the portfolio we are rebalancing monthly. Unlike the remainder of the portfolio we are changing the 10 stock holdings. Our general strategy is to generate an investment policy based on the investor's time horizon and risk tolerance. We use individual bonds, treasuries, or CDs to cover the investor's cash flow needs for up to 10 years out. The cash flow needs are covered so that the investor does not need to worry about market conditions to meet their needs. STOCK-BOND RATIO The Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings (CAPE) ratio of a stock market is one of the standard metrics used to evaluate whether a market is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly-valued. This metric was developed by Robert Shiller and popularized during the Dotcom Bubble when he argued (correctly) that equities were highly overvalued. For that reason, it's also casually referred to as the “Shiller PE”, meaning the Shiller variant of the typical price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of stock. It's most commonly applied to the S&P 500, but can be and is applied to any stock index. The main benefit is that it is one of several broad valuation metrics that can help you determine how much of your portfolio should reasonably be invested into equities based on the current relationship between the price you pay for them and the value you get in return in the form of earnings. The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio is defined as the ratio the S&P 500's current price divided by the 10-year moving average of inflation-adjusted earnings. CAPE Ratio 10 year average           26.9 100 year average         17.6 10 year minimum        13.4 10 year maximum        44.0 10 year median            26.0 Standard deviation     6.3 Currently, in December, 2019, the CAPE Ratio is 33.6. Which is high compared to the 100 year and 10 year averages.  However, it is not near the all-time maximum of 44.0. The CAPE has trended higher over time We are using the CAPE Ratio to determine the bond to stock balance.  Each month we look at the CAPE index and adjust the stock to bond distribution accordingly.  When the CAPE Ratio is low, stocks are undervalued. When the CAPE Ratio is relatively high, the stock market is overvalued. CAPE Ratio    stocks  bonds under 15          90%     10% 15 to 20           80%     20% 20 to 25           70%     30% 25 to 30           60%     40% 30 to 35           50%     50% 35 to 40           40%     60% 30 to 35           30%     70% 40 to 45           20%     80% over 45            10%     90% INDEX PORTFOLIO Most of the portfolio is handled using Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).

Episode 118 has a radio show format. In this one, we cover numerous Tweets of the Week from Meb, as well as some write-in questions. We start by discussing articles Meb posted in his Tweets of the Week. These include a piece by Jason Zweig about how your broker might be making 10-times more money off your cash balance than you could make on it. Then there’s discussion of valuations – a chart by Leuthold shows how one measure of US market valuation has matched its 2000 level, and another has doubled it. At the same time, Longboard released a chart referencing a Goldman market outlook that claims “in 99% of the time at current valuation levels, equity returns have been single digit or negative”. We talk about US valuations and when “selling” might trump buy-and-hold. Then we jump to foreign valuations. GMO believes emerging markets are the biggest opportunity relative to other assets in the past 20+ years. Meb clarifies what this really means. Then there’s discussion of home country geographic sector bias, whether the VC market is in a bubble (Meb tells us about some bad behavior he’s beginning to see in the space), and how the American savings rate is pretty grim. We then get into listener Q&A. Some that you’ll hear Meb address include: Are momentum funds just camouflaging another factor? For instance, if Value became the “in” factor, wouldn’t Momentum pick it up, so Momentum would then just look like a Value fund? Assuming the U.S. economy does not enter a recession in the near future, the Shiller PE’s 10-year earnings average will soon consist of all economic boom and no bust as the depressed earnings of 2008 and 2009 roll out of its calculation. How useful is a CAPE that only includes a period of profit expansion? Regarding your global value strategy, have you ever tested the strategy using relative CAPE ratios versus absolute to determine country allocations in order to avoid countries with structurally low CAPE ratios? I've never heard of a 401k plan offering ETF options. Is there a reason logistically, legally, etc. that prevents 401k plans from offering ETF options? How do I structure my portfolio for a 4% yield, after tax? I like your shareholder yield strategy, but if I get capital returned through buybacks and share appreciation, how do I get monthly income without selling shares and triggering taxes? I just don't see how I can implement a monthly income plan with this strategy. All this and more in Episode 118.

In Episode 107 we welcome the great James Montier. The chat starts on the topic of James’ questionable sartorial choices. He tells us he’s “always been a fan of dressing badly.” But the guys quickly jump in with Meb noting how James has generally been seeing the world as expensive over the last few years. Has anything changed today? James tells us no; by in large, we’re still trapped in this world where, frankly, you’re reduced to this game of “picking the tallest dwarf.” In general, every asset is expensive compared to normal. He summarizes, telling us “there really is a serious challenge to try to put together an investment portfolio that’s going to generate half-decent returns on a forward-looking basis.” Meb digs into, focusing on James’ framework for thinking about valuation, specifically, as a process. James starts from accounting identities. There are essentially four ways you get paid for owning an equity: a change in valuation, a change in profitability, some growth, and some yield.  James fleshes out the details for us, discussing time-horizons of these identities. One of the takeaways is that we’re looking at pretty miserable returns for U.S. equities. James notes that we now have the second highest CAPE reading ever. Or you could look at the median price of the average stock – the price-to-sales ratio has never been higher. Overall, the point is to look at many valuation metrics and triangulate, so to speak. When you do, they’re all pretty much saying the same thing. James finishes by telling us that from his perspective, U.S. equities appear obscenely expensive.  Meb takes the counter position, asking if there’s any good argument for this elevated market. Is there any explanation that would justify the high values and continued investment? James spends much time performing this exact exercise, looking for holes. He tells us that most people point toward “low interest rates” as a reason why this valuation is justified. But James takes issue with this. From a dividend discount model perspective, James doesn’t think the discount rate and the growth rate are independent. He suggests growth will be lower along with lower rates. He goes on to discuss various permutations of PE and other models, noting that there’s no historical relationship between the Shiller PE and interest rates. Meb comments how so many famous investors echo “low rates allow valuations to be high.” But this wasn’t the case in Japan. Meb then steers the conversation toward advisors who agree that U.S. stocks are expensive yet remain invested. Why? What follows is a great discussion about what James calls the “Cynical Bubble.” People know they shouldn’t be investing because U.S. stocks are expensive, but investors feel they must invest. If you believe you can stay in this market and sell out before it turns, you’re playing the greater fool game. James tells us about a game involving expectations – it’s a fun part of the show you’ll want to listen to, with the takeaway being how hard it is to be one step ahead of everyone else. The conversation bounces around a bit before Meb steers it toward how we respond to this challenging market. What’s the answer? James tells us there are really four options, yet not all have equal merit: 1) Concentrate. In essence, you own the market about which you’re most optimistic. For him, that would be emerging market value stocks. Of course, buying and holding here will be hard to do. 2) Use leverage. Just lever up the portfolio to reach your target return. The problem here is this is incompatible with a valuation-based approach. Using leverage implies you know something about the path that the asset will take back to fair value – yet it may not go that route. You may end up needing very deep pockets – perhaps deeper than you have. 3) Seek alternatives like private equity and private debt. The problem here is most are not genuinely alternative. They’re not uncorrelated sources of return. James tell us that alternatives are actually just different ways of owning standard risk. 4) The last option is James’ preferred choice. Quoting Winnie the Pooh: “Never underestimate the power of doing nothing.” Next, Meb brings up “process” as James has written much about it. James tells us that process is key. Professional athletes don’t focus on winning – they focus on process, which is the only thing they can control. This is a great part of the interview which delves into process details, behavioral biases, how to challenge your own views, and far more. James concludes saying “Process is vitally important because it’s the one thing an investor can control, and really help them admit that their own worst enemy might be themselves.” There’s plenty more in this great episode: James’s answer to whether we’re in a bubble, and if so, what type… market myths that people get wrong involving government debt… and of course, James’ most memorable trade. This one was a loser that got halved…then halved again…then again…then again… How did James get it so wrong? Find out in Episode 107.

McAlvany Weekly Commentary About this week’s show: Volatility (worry) Index sets new record for complacency. VIX this month is most complacent in history! Are stocks too high? The same question was asked 30 years ago before the October 19th, 1987 crash Pre-Crash indicator: Shiller P/E at second highest level EVER! The McAlvany Weekly Commentary with David McAlvany and […] The post Sing the Asset Bubble Song: “Don't Worry… Buy Happy!” appeared first on McAlvany Weekly Commentary.

Amerikanske aktier tog tirsdag det største fald i 109 handelsdage, da de faldt 1,2 pct. Men det mest bemærkelsesværdige er, at der skulle gå så lang tid, før vi så den slags fald. Det siger Nykredits chefstrateg Frederik Engholm i denne uges Nykredit Podcast. Her tager vi også temperaturen på det franske valg, hvor sandsynligheden for den EU-kritiske Marine Le Pen som præsident er faldet efter mandagens store tv-debat. Og så kårer vi til sidst ugens tweet, der handler om en 183 år gammel gældspost, der nu er slettet. -- Følg Frederik Engholm på Twitter på twitter.com/FrederikEngholm Læs mere om Shiller P/E-nøgletallet: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclically_adjusted_price-to-earnings_ratio

My guests today are Frank Curzio of Stansberry & Associates and Robin Griffiths, the Chief Technical Strategist at ECU and formerly at HSBC. The topic is markets. In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: Covel and Curzio discuss how the fundamental guys justify all time highs in the equity market; the Shiller PE ratio; the importance of analyzing interest rates; Warren Buffett recent investments; what the Fed would do if we went down 30% today; why having a low interest rate environment creates a good situation for stocks; being prepared from a risk management perspective; Zero Interest Rate Policy, its effect on equities and bonds, and tail risk; comparing the environment today to the 1987 crash; hypothetical situations surrounding the S&P 500; exit strategies; and the 24-hour news cycle. Covel and Griffiths discuss how to use fundamentals in an age when interest rates are artificially controlled; Griffiths' history as a mechanical engineer and how he found his way into trading and technical analysis; regression analysis; Elliott Wave and cycles; the idea of whipsaws; geopolitical risks; China, India, and the rise of Asia; not trading off of geopolitical fundamental information; how Griffiths came to the conclusion that the efficient market hypothesis and much of what the mutual fund industry depends on doesn't hold water; spikes and why people in 2014 think that all spikes are gone; Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay and the cyclical nature of booms and busts; and virtual currencies. Jump in! --- I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show. To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/ You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/ Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel interviews Frank Curzio and Robin Griffiths. First, Covel speaks with Frank Curzio of Stansberry & Associates. Covel and Curzio discuss how the fundamental guys justify all time highs in the equity market; the Shiller PE ratio; the importance of analyzing interest rates; Warren Buffett recent investments; what the Fed would do if we went down 30% today; why having a low interest rate environment creates a good situation for stocks; being prepared from a risk management perspective; Zero Interest Rate Policy, its effect on equities and bonds, and tail risk; comparing the environment today to the 1987 crash; hypothetical situations surrounding the S&P 500; exit strategies; and the 24-hour news cycle. Next, Covel interviews Robin Griffiths, Chief Technical Strategist at ECU and formerly at HSBC. Griffiths comes at it from a technical perspective. Covel and Griffiths discuss how to use fundamentals in an age when interest rates are artificially controlled; Griffiths’ history as a mechanical engineer and how he found his way into trading and technical analysis; regression analysis; Elliott Wave and cycles; the idea of whipsaws; geopolitical risks; China, India, and the rise of Asia; not trading off of geopolitical fundamental information; how Griffiths came to the conclusion that the efficient market hypothesis and much of what the mutual fund industry depends on doesn’t hold water; spikes and why people in 2014 think that all spikes are gone; Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay and the cyclical nature of booms and busts; and virtual currencies. Want a free trend following DVD? Go to trendfollowing.com/win.

This is a weekly market situation report and summary for markets around the world. For more information please visit: http://www.onlinefinancialadvisor.net Sign up for our FREE weekly newsletter, and also receive our Free eBook "The Top 5 Greatest Fears All Retirees Have, Explained!" In the "decades" timeframe, we have been in a Secular Bear Market which began in 2000 when the P/E ratio peaked at about 44. The job of Secular Bear markets is to burn off outrageously high P/E ratios over one or two decades, until finally the P/E ratio arrives back at a single-digit level, from which another Secular Bull Market can emerge. If history is a guide, we may not yet be done with this Secular Bear Market. The Shiller P/E is at 26.4, barely changed from the prior week’s 26.3, and approximately at the level reached at the pre-crash high in October, 2007. Even though P/E's are substantially lower than their crazy peak in 2000, they are nonetheless at the high end of the normal historical range and leave little if any room for expansion. This means that the stock market is unlikely to make gains greater than corporate profit growth percentage, if that. In fact, since 1881, the average annual returns for all ten year periods that began with a CAPE at this level have been just 3%/yr This further means that above-average returns will be much more likely to come from the active management of portfolios than from passive buy-and-hold. Although a mania could come along and cause P/E’s to shoot upward from current levels , in the absence of such a mania, buy-and-hold investors will likely have a long wait until the arrival of returns typical of a Secular Bull Market. The “big picture” is the months-to-years timeframe – the timeframe in which Cyclical Bulls and Bears operate. The US Bull-Bear Indicator (see Fig. 3) is at 64.7, little changed from the prior week’s 64.6, and continues in cyclical Bull territory. The current Cyclical Bull has taken the US and some of Europe to new all-time highs, but many of the world’s major indices have yet to top 2007’s levels. The most widely followed international indexes, the Morgan Stanley EAFE Developed International index and the Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Index, are both still below their 2007 peaks. The intermediate indicator ended the week at 25, unchanged from the prior week. Separately, the quarter-by-quarter indicator - based on domestic and international stock trend status at the start of each quarter - gave a positive indication on the first day of July for the prospects for the third quarter of 2014. LargeCap US equities gained for the week, and pretty much everything else around the world dropped. On the plus side, the S&P 500 gained +1.3%, and the Dow Industrials rose +1.7%. But US MidCap and SmallCap indices lost -0.2% and -1.2% respectively for the week. Likewise, Canada’s TSX gave up -1.7%, Developed International pulled back a slight -0.1%, and Emerging International lost -0.8%. It is a saying among Wall Streeters that when the market is running out of steam, “large caps are the last to go.” If the market is indeed running out of steam, the market is following this script. In US economic news, initial jobless claims fell to 280,000, the lowest number in 7 years. The National Association of Home Builders (“NAHB”) reported its housing market index rose to 59 from 55 a month ago, and matched its highest reading since 2005. Canada's annual inflation rate was reported at 2.1%, the fourth month in a row that it was above the Bank of Canada’s 2.0% target. The Bank of Canada is now in a quandary: it is on record as intending to maintain low interest rates to boost a soft economy, yet also on record as being more than willing to raise rates to keep a lid on inflation. The central bank said earlier in September that higher inflation recently seen has been attributable to “temporary effects.” The Organization for Economic Development issued revised (and mostly lower) estimates of Eurozone GDP for 2014. The Eurozone as a whole estimate was revised down to +0.8%. Some individual country examples are: U.K. (+3.1%); Germany (+1.5%); France (+0.4%); Italy (-0.4%). More information in the podcast.... For more information please visit: http://www.onlinefinancialadvisor.net Sign up for our FREE weekly newsletter, and also receive our Free eBook "The Top 5 Greatest Fears All Retirees Have, Explained!" Disclaimer: Nothing in this video or free report can be or should be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. This is purely educational and there is not enough information in here or the report to make educated investment decisions. Always consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

This week, Mebane Faber, portfolio manager at Cambria Investment Management and one of the smartest quantitative analysts, joins S&A Investor Radio to break down the markets.You'll hear Meb talk about diversification and how high yielding stocks almost always outperform the market.People tend to invest in what they know and what they are comfortable with... does that mean they are missing out on this top-down investment strategy?Meb breaks down exactly what you need to know about tactical global asset allocation.And you won't want to miss Meb and Frank's friendly debate regarding the Shiller P/E ratio ... Meb believes it is one of the best tools to value stocks. Find out why Frank strongly disagrees... And in Frank's educational segment, he shows you a safe back door way to play the shale boom in the U.S.