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How much has the Trump tariff turmoil shaken up trust in America's financial levers? With US interest rates rising and the greenback's value falling against other currencies.
Global financial markets experienced a tumultuous week, with safe-haven assets surging, and the US dollar and Treasury bonds posting sharp declines, raising concerns about the future of US economic dominance and global trade stability. As the escalating trade war with China continues to unfold, investors are bracing for another volatile week, in which the European Central Bank meeting takes place and the corporate earnings season gets underway. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, also joins the show and shares his outlook for markets from a technical perspective.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:31 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)06:45 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)09:55 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Q&A from subscribers of phyle.co Doug answers about his major influences, experiences in the commodities market, and the best states to live in the U.S. Doug shares a unique perspective on hunting for good investments, the pros and cons of different measurement systems, and potential global economic shifts. He also provides insights into the Canadian banking system, the potential for geopolitical tensions with China, and investments in revenue-generating real estate. 00:00 Introduction and Mentors 06:54 Getting Started in Commodities 09:48 Best US States to Live In 12:12 US Bonds and Dollar Selloff 16:23 Gold as a Safe Haven 17:32 Housing Market Insights 21:04 Metric vs. American System 24:44 Canada's Banking and Economic Concerns 27:30 The Canadian Dilemma: Assets and Expatriation 29:01 Gold's Supercycle: Insights and Speculations 32:04 Debating Antitrust Laws and Market Dynamics 34:30 Investing in Royalty and Streaming Companies 35:47 Exploring Cambodia and Southeast Asia 38:27 Self-Sufficiency in Argentina 40:14 Starting a New Country: Challenges and Possibilities 42:51 Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Financial Debate 45:59 Guyana's Growth and Sociopolitical Landscape 49:40 Potential Hot War with China: Implications 52:24 Real Estate Investments: Doug's Perspective 53:22 Conclusion and Upcoming Projects
100 Jährige US-Bonds zu null Zinsen
„Der Kreditmarkt ist extrem gut gelaufen, je riskanter, umso besser", subsummiert Lewis Aubrey-Johnson, Fixed Income-Experte bei Invesco, den Bondmarkt 2024. Die Risikoaufschläge hätten sich in allen Anleiheklassen sehr stark reduziert, die Anleger seien sehr euphorisch, zu euphorisch. Mögliche Risiken seien zu wenig eingepreist. Deshalb ist er sich sicher dass die Risikoaufschläge auf riskantere Anleihen in diesem Jahr wieder auseinander gehen. Schlechtere Schuldner müssten also wieder mehr fürs Geld ausborgen bezahlen, das reduziert die Kurse der bereits emittierten Hochzinspapiere Deshalb konzentriert sich Lewis 2025 mehr auf Bonds besserer Bonitäten. Das Jahr 2025 werde für Bonds deutlich herausfordernder, meint Lewis, „wir sagen das jedes Jahr, diesmal wird es aber wirklich ein schwieriges Anleihejahr speziell in den USA, weil wir nicht wissen was Donald Trump politisch einfällt." Man wisse etwa nicht, wie Trumps-Zollabsichten die Inflation nach oben treiben werden, was auch wiederrum überraschend zu Zinserhöhungen führen könnten. In jedem Fall werde es am Bond-Markt deutlich volatiler. Weltweit würden die Investoren gerade noch versuchen, die höheren Zinsen einzulocken, bevor diese weiter sinken. Damit rechnet Lewis zumindest in Europa, wo die Inflation aufgrund der schwachen Konjunktur niedrig bleibe, nicht so in den USA. Deshalb ist er bei US-Bonds zurückhaltender. Was die Duration betrifft bevorzugt er aufgrund in den nächsten Monaten noch fallenden Zinsen in Europa längere Laufzeiten. Mit länger meint er aber nicht sieben bis acht Jahren, sondern bei Unternehmensanleihen „nur“ von 4,5 bis fünf Jahren. Dies, weil die Zinskurve momentan vergleichsweise flach ist – soll heißen für eine längere Bindung bekommt man kaum höhere Zinsen. Ich persönlich finde den Anleihenmarkt momentan mäßig attraktiv. Das sieht aber aus den Augen eines Bonds-Experten natürlich anders aus. Was im Anleihenmarkt zu holen ist verrät der Invesco-Kenner dieser Asset Klasse in der aktuellen Podcast-Folge der GELDMEISTERIN. Viel Hörvergnügen wünscht Julia Kistner Musik- & Soundrechte: https://www.geldmeisterin.com/index.php/musik-und-soundrechte/ Risikohinweis: Dies sind keine Anlageempfehlungen. Julia Kistner und ihr Podcast-Gast übernehmen keinerlei Haftung. #Investment #Geldanlage #Anleihen #Risiko #Volatilität #Bonds #Anleihen #podcast Foto: LinkedIn
‘We must put into perspective – however we like our South African Elon Musk – what he can do to government spending': Atilla Kadikoy, Levantine & Co.
Our friend Zach Abraham, chief investor for Bulwark Capital Management, came by. We chatted about the political circumstances in our nation and he had a question for me in relation to polling. I likewise had a question for Zach in regard to this really slimy debt swapping deal that we do with Japan and that Japan may be lining up to dump a bunch of US bonds. And Zach reminded me about something about the Federal Reserve. Remember, there was a time when the Federal Reserve had a kind of mission, they were the lender of last resort. What does God's Word say? Romans 8:28 28 And we know that in all things God works for the good of those who love him, who[a] have been called according to his purpose.Alan's Soapshttps://alanssoaps.com/TODDUse coupon code ‘TODD' to save an additional 10% off the bundle price.Bioptimizershttps://magbreakthrough.com/toddfreeVisit this website to get your 30-capsule bottle of Magnesium Breakthrough for FREE today! No promo code needed.Bonefroghttps://bonefrogcoffee.com/toddMake Bonefrog Cold Brew at home! Use code TODD at checkout to receive 10% off your first purchase and 15% on subscriptions.Bulwark Capital Bulwark Capital Management (bulwarkcapitalmgmt.com)Learn about Bulwark's strategies with their FREE Common Cents Investing Guide. Get yours by calling 866-779-RISK or go to KnowYourRiskRadio.com.EdenPUREhttps://edenpuredeals.comUse code TODD3 to save $200 on the Thunderstorm Air Purifier 3-pack.GreenHaven Interactivehttps://greenhaveninteractive.comNeed more customers? Give Dave a call to get customers online!Liver Healthhttps://getliverhelp.com/toddOrder today and get your FREE bottle of Blood Sugar Formula and free bonus gift.Native Pathhttps://getnativepath.com/toddStock up on NativePath Collagen for up to 45% off plus free shipping.Renue Healthcarehttps://renue.healthcare/toddYour journey to a better life starts at Renue Healthcare. Visit renue.healthcare/Todd
Alan's Soapshttps://alanssoaps.com/TODDUse coupon code ‘TODD' to save an additional 10% off the bundle price.Bioptimizershttps://magbreakthrough.com/toddfreeVisit this website to get your 30-capsule bottle of Magnesium Breakthrough for FREE today! No promo code needed.Bonefroghttps://bonefrogcoffee.com/toddMake Bonefrog Cold Brew at home! Use code TODD at checkout to receive 10% off your first purchase and 15% on subscriptions.Bulwark Capital Bulwark Capital Management (bulwarkcapitalmgmt.com)Learn about Bulwark's strategies with their FREE Common Cents Investing Guide. Get yours by calling 866-779-RISK or go to KnowYourRiskRadio.com.EdenPUREhttps://edenpuredeals.comUse code TODD3 to save $200 on the Thunderstorm Air Purifier 3-pack.GreenHaven Interactivehttps://greenhaveninteractive.comNeed more customers? Give Dave a call to get customers online!Liver Healthhttps://getliverhelp.com/toddOrder today and get your FREE bottle of Blood Sugar Formula and free bonus gift.Native Pathhttps://getnativepath.com/toddStock up on NativePath Collagen for up to 45% off plus free shipping.Renue Healthcarehttps://renue.healthcare/toddYour journey to a better life starts at Renue Healthcare. Visit renue.healthcare/Todd
Support the show: http://www.newcountry963.com/hawkeyeinthemorningSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
US Treasuries were volatile again overnight. The 10-year hit 5% and then slid in late New York trade, which dragged on the US dollar and boosted US stocks. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ's Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman looks at which currencies are winning and losing in the hunt for safe havens. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Auch in der neuen Woche bleiben die Themen die alten. Unsicherheit in Nahost, Unsicherheit an der Zinsfront, Unsicherheiten auf der Konjunkturseite. Dazu kommen überaus attraktive Renditen bei US-Bonds. Über 5 % bei überschaubarem Risiko sind eine interessante Alternative zum Aktienmarkt. Der DAX am Tagestief bei 14.600 Punkten. Aber dann kam mit Rückenwind aus den USA die Gegenbewegung. Und am Ende steht sogar ein Mini Plus auf der Anzeigentafel. 14.800 Punkte oder 0,02 %. MDAX dreht ebenfalls einen Hauch ins Plus mit bei 24.080 Punkten. Die Münchener Rück hebt ihr Gewinnziel für das laufende Jahr kräftig an, um eine halbe Milliarde Euro. Und rechnet nun mit einem Gewinn von 4,5 Mrd. Euro. VW hatte vor dem Wochenende die Ergebnisprognose für das Gesamtjahr heruntergenommen. VW sind im tief gefallen unter 100 Euro. Bestellt Apple jetzt doch endlich bei Varta seine Akkus? So verstehen Anleger Aussagen von Varta Chef Markus Hackstein und schicken Varta 6 % ins Plus, im Hoch auf 20 Euro. Allerdings: vor zwei Jahren standen Varta bei 150 Euro. Weiter Rückenwind bei Atoss auch in Q3. Erst im Juli hatte Atoss die Jahresziele erhöht. Die will man sogar leicht übertreffen.
Markets are pissed - and they have every right to be as Powell dumps markets. Seasonal patters playing out. Could strikes be the next market breaking catalyst? Listen in to what China is doing with US Bonds - not good PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - The Wait for the Fed is over - and the market is pissed - Starting t wonder if there is another banking scare coming (rate rocketing higher) - We still selling Rosh Hashana and Buying Yom Kippur? - Weight loss drugs worrying different market segments - Wondering - Next Catalyst for market - Unions Strike Trend? - PSA about COVID Season Market Update - 10Yr Yield approaching 4.5% - Oil taps $92 then comes in to $90 - Bad week for markets - we have some stats - Cisco M&A - Splunk - Oversold reading - switched the short small-caps today Market Commentary The major indices registered sizable declines last week. - Softness in mega caps had a disproportionate influence on index performance, but there was no effort to rotate anywhere else so many stocks came along for the downside ride. - All 11 S&P 500 sectors finished in the red last week. ----- - - - - - The consumer discretionary (-6.4%), real estate (-5.4%), and materials (-3.7%) were the top laggards while the health care sector (-1.2%) saw the slimmest loss. - The catalyst for the weakness was another big jump in Treasury yields. ----- - - - The 2-yr note yield climbed eight basis points last week to 5.12%. --- - -The 10-yr note yield climbed 12 basis points last week to 4.44%. - - - - - -Including lastweek's move, the 10-yr note yield is up 35 basis points this month. **** Those moves were largely in response to the Fed's hawkish pause on Wednesday. Fed Update Meeting (Briefing.com) - As expected, the FOMC voted unanimously to leave the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50%. - - - The median fed funds rate estimate for 2023 was unchanged at 5.6% - - - BUT the median estimate for 2024 was 5.1%, versus 4.6% in June. This suggests officials are still leaning in favor of one more rate hike this year it also tells us that there is an expectation that rates will come down by only 50 basis points in 2024, as opposed to 100 basis points when estimates were provided in June. - - - - -The longer-run fed funds rate estimate was maintained at 2.5%, leaving one to infer that the Fed is going to stay committed to its 2.0% inflation target. Other Central Banks - Japan's central bank maintained its ultra-loose policy and left rates unchanged last Friday, mindful of the "extremely high uncertainties" on the growth outlook domestically and globally. - Yen dropped hard on the news (weakening) - In a policy statement after its September policy meeting, the Bank of Japan said it would maintain short-term interest rates at -0.1%, and cap the 10-year Japanese government bond yield around zero. - Very dovish for Japanese rates (in a world that everything else is inflating) More Other Central Banks - The Bank of England halted its long run of interest rate increases on Thursday as the British economy slowed, but it said it was not taking a recent fall in inflation for granted. - A day after a surprise slowing in Britain's fast pace of price growth, the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted by a narrow margin of 5-4 to keep Bank Rate at 5.25%. - Are they really using data that is real-time? Stupid as economy moves slowly - they are nuts! China Dropping Treasury Holdings - China has been reducing its US Treasury holding for about 10 years now - China, presumably, drew some conclusions from the Russia invasion of Ukraine (freezing of assets) and recognized the same cou...
Dive deep into the intricate world of international finance as we explore the potential consequences if China decided to cash in all their US bonds. How would this decision impact global economies and financial systems? Plus, we'll delve into the recent issues surrounding Alibaba, drawing connections between China's economic strategies and its implications on global trade and relations. Stay tuned for a comprehensive analysis on the intertwining of these financial giants. #ChinaUSBonds #AlibabaIssues #GlobalEconomy Link to full episode: https://youtu.be/rcv-p9P26Qg?si=VA_DFJC2HIIwryiM (https://youtu.be/rcv-p9P26Qg?si=VA_DFJC2HIIwryiM)Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/marketmondays/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
Zinspause Ja, Zinswende Nein. Das ist die kurze Erkenntnis aus den Erläuterungen von Jerome Powell. Schweden und Norwegen haben wie erwartet leicht angehoben. Überraschungen dagegen in Großbritannien und in der Schweiz. Hier stehen die Zeichen auf Pause. Die Märkte haben ungehalten reagiert. DAX verliert 1,3 % Schlusskurs 15.579 Punkte. MDAX -2,2 % und 26.575 Punkte. Die Zinslandschaft macht Anleihen noch interessanter und eine echte Alternative zu Aktien: Die Rendite der zehnjährigen Bundesanleihe steigt auf 2,75 % und damit so hoch wie seit 2011 nicht mehr. Zweijährige Papiere kommen auch 3,3 %. Die zweijährigen US-Bonds liegen sogar bei 5,15 %, zehnjährige bei 4,5 %. Die deutschen Exporte sinken um knapp 2 %. Grund ist die schwache Nachfrage aus den USA und China. Fedex hat zwar weniger Umsatz gemacht, aber mehr verdient. 1,08 Mrd. Dollar nach 875 Mio. Dollar ein Jahr zuvor. Der Umsatz sank um rund sechs %. Konkurrent DHL dagegen verlegt sich aufs Lamentieren und kritisiert die Ablehnung der gewünschten Portoerhöhung für die Post. "Es stellt sich schon die Frage: Ist überhaupt gewünscht, dass wir das Brief-Geschäft weiter betreiben und hier investieren?" so DHL Chef Tobias Meyer.
(9/20/23) It's FOMC Day: Rate decision and economic forecasts + the Powell presser. Two questions remain: Is the Fed done, and when will the rate cuts begin? Are we doing Bonds wrong? A discussion based upon an article in MarketWatch: Why investors seeking stability always go for US Bonds vs international debt? FedEx reports = barometer on retail sales; General Mills & the Creal Index: the cost of feeding kids at breakfast; Danny pays his kid for fly balls & Christina Robets' money tree. The new Retirement Bill: take risk in taxable accounts. Can the Fed achieve a "soft-landing," what is that, anyway? Pandemic effect on employment & investing. The challenging year; who'll cave first in congressional budget talks? SEG-1: FOMC Day Preview SEG-2: Are We Doing Bonds Wrong? SEG-3: FedEx Barometer for Retail Sales, and Feeding Kids SEG-4: Can the Fed Achieve a "Soft Landing?" Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Are Markets Close to Trigger Point?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBV-ToNbB-E&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Waiting for the Fed" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEOlkyTLTAc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ "Bond Vigilantes And The Waiting For Godot" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-vigilantes-and-the-waiting-for-gadot/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #FOMC #interestRates #GovernmentShutdown #Bonds #ForeignDebt #FedExBarometer #CerealIndex #RetailSales #Markets #Money #Investing
(9/20/23) It's FOMC Day: Rate decision and economic forecasts + the Powell presser. Two questions remain: Is the Fed done, and when will the rate cuts begin? Are we doing Bonds wrong? A discussion based upon an article in MarketWatch: Why investors seeking stability always go for US Bonds vs international debt? FedEx reports = barometer on retail sales; General Mills & the Cereal Index: the cost of feeding kids at breakfast; Danny pays his kid for fly balls & Christina Roberts' money tree. The new Retirement Bill: take risk in taxable accounts. Can the Fed achieve a "soft-landing," what is that, anyway? Pandemic effect on employment & investing. The challenging year; who'll cave first in congressional budget talks? SEG-1: FOMC Day Preview SEG-2: Are We Doing Bonds Wrong? SEG-3: FedEx Barometer for Retail Sales, and Feeding Kids SEG-4: Can the Fed Achieve a "Soft Landing?" Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Are Markets Close to Trigger Point?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBV-ToNbB-E&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Waiting for the Fed" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEOlkyTLTAc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ "Bond Vigilantes And The Waiting For Godot" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-vigilantes-and-the-waiting-for-gadot/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #FOMC #interestRates #GovernmentShutdown #Bonds #ForeignDebt #FedExBarometer #CerealIndex #RetailSales #Markets #Money #Investing
We look at how US government bonds have become a good source of income for investors. We hear from one businessman in Canada as wildfires spread across his neighbourhood. and we discuss why some of the biggest hotel groups in the world are helping to boost all-inclusive holidays
We examine why US government bonds are becoming more lucrative for investors. We hear what impact a drought is having on maritime trade going through the Panama canal. AND We get reaction to news that the world's second biggest fashion retailer H&M is investigating 20 alleged instances of worker abuse at Myanmar garment factories that supply it.
Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Global Cross Asset Strategy Jay Barry, Co-Head of US Rates Strategy This podcast was recorded on 07 August 2023 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4479744-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
There's no end in sight for sovereign debt crises in developing economies. What started with Sri Lanka and Lebanon has now spread to other countries, including Bolivia, Kenya, and Pakistan. What's causing these crises? Are they likely to spread? And what can be done to tackle them? Anupam Manur joins Aditya Ramanathan to discuss some of the uncomfortable truths about sovereign debt crises and why they can be hard to solve. You can listen to our episode from last year on the Sri Lanka crisis here: All Things Policy Ep. 796 : What went wrong with the Sri Lankan economy? Do follow IVM Podcasts on social media. We are @IVMPodcasts on Facebook, Twitter, & Instagram. https://twitter.com/IVMPodcasts https://www.instagram.com/ivmpodcasts/?hl=en https://www.facebook.com/ivmpodcasts/ You can check out our website at https://shows.ivmpodcasts.com/featured Follow the show across platforms: Spotify, Google Podcasts, Apple Podcasts, JioSaavn, Gaana, Amazon Music Do share the word with your folks!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In this Episode: Market Summary: S&P, US Bonds, Oil Petrodollar vs Eurodollar framework of US reserve currency status Likelihood of De-dollarization Being prepared, whether or not USD stays the WRC Economic impacts - would this necessarily lead to rapid inflation? Growthpoint Properties (Johannesburg Stock Exchange) Get the charts: https://thelakestreetreview.com/chartbook Relevant LSR articles: Growthpoint Properties https://www.thelakestreetreview.com/post/growthpoint-properties-instills-investors-confidence Kenyan President Advises to Abandon US Dollar https://www.thelakestreetreview.com/post/kenyan-president-advise-africans-to-abandon-the-us-dollar Chinese Yuan Threatens Dollar Dominance https://www.thelakestreetreview.com/post/the-chinese-yuan-threatens-the-dominance-of-the-u-s-dollar Sources and Articles Mentioned in the Conversation: Correction on Oil price: 200 day moving average was not breached, the 50 and 100 day moving averages were. Zimbabwe land reform https://www.cato.org/commentary/why-mugabes-land-reforms-were-so-disastrous (Libertarian leaning) Largest African oil exporters https://www.statista.com/statistics/1178514/main-oil-producing-countries-in-africa/#:~:text=Nigeria%20was%20the%20leading%20oil,above%2050%20million%20metric%20tons. Obama Admin and Libya https://www.cato.org/commentary/obama-administration-wrecked-libya-generation Xi Jinping visit to Riyadh https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/07/saudi-arabia-readies-full-state-pageantry-for-xi-jinping-visit Javier Blas twitter https://twitter.com/JavierBlas Petrodollar - FDR and Ibn Saud Valentine's Day Meeting https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20220715-roosevelt-and-ibn-saud-built-groundwork-for-current-world-order-on-a-boat Petrodollar - 1970s https://greatpowerrelations.com/great-powers/status-of-great-powers/key-drivers-of-economic-capabilities/dollar-and-de-dollarization/birth-of-petrodollar/ Saudi Arabia agrees to use dollar oil revenues to buy US debt - "petrodollar recycling" in 1974 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-05-30/the-untold-story-behind-saudi-arabia-s-41-year-u-s-debt-secret Note: we cannot find a single primary source showing an agreement made in the 40s or the 70s whereby middle east oil exporters would exclusively sell oil in dollars. Every finance article on the subject pegs implementation of the system at 1974, when the "petrodollar recycling" agreement was made. However this agreement was not centered on what currency oil would be traded in, nor did it involve the rest of what is now OPEC. It was a bilateral agreement regarding the oil trade between the US and Saudi Arabia only. It governed what Saudi Arabia would do with the dollars received from oil sales to the US. Under the 1974 agreement, the Saudi government would invest excesses from oil sales in US Treasury bonds in exchange for military defense. Use of the dollar as the currency of exchange in international trade had already become commonplace in the two decades leading up to 1974. Brief history of the Eurodollar System https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2022/january/bretton-woods-growth-eurodollar-market Econtalk - How Argentinians deal with inflation https://www.econtalk.org/devon-zuegel-on-inflation-argentina-and-crypto/ Currency debasement in Egypt's Ptolemaic Dynasty (began under Ptolemy I circa 300 BC) Correction: Silver and bronze currencies were debased, copper was not used. https://www.worldhistory.org/article/1256/the-economy-of-ptolemaic-egypt/ Continental inflation (War of Independence) https://www.aier.org/article/not-worth-a-continental/ Fund manager Mark Mobius can't get capital out of China https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/06/business/mark-mobius-china-capital-controls/index.html#:~:text=Shanghai%20Mark%20Mobius%20has%20said,t%20take%20my%20money%20out. Investor relations - Growthpoint properties https://www.growthpoint.co.za/investor-relations/
It appears that a Japanese Fund is experiencing a margin call today as this is more than likely a reaction to the Bank Of Japan ( BOJ ) changing their Yield Curve Control Policy. This may keep the dollar low and the treat of Japan selling our US Bonds. Here is a link to my Real Estate channel please subscribe: https://youtu.be/QgMPGfM4yx0
In this episode of Inside the Path to Success, Ryan and Fran talk about how through Q3, this has historically been the worst start ever for US Bonds, and the fourth worst start ever for US Stocks. So what's next? Historically how have markets performed after years like these?Also - we dive into the performance of a diversified 60/40 portfolio over the last 20 years vs the S&P 500 index. Some of these results may surprise you!We hope you enjoy the show! Have a great week!
The US Market has started the new month and quarter on an upbeat note as weaker than expected manufacturing data prompted investors to rethink how aggressive the Fed's upcoming interest rate hikes will be as the economy is starting to show small signs of slowing. The Dow Jones industrial Index posted the biggest gain of 2.66% at the Closing Bell, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq closed 2.3% higher, and the S&P500 added 2.6%. US government bonds also rallied sharply on the first trading day of the fourth quarter with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note sliding 0.18 percentage points as it's price rose. Lawmakers in Russia's lower House of Parliament have unanimously approved moving forward with absorbing full Ukrainian territories captured into Russia despite battlefield setbacks and a lack of control over the four new areas. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has vowed to retake all land seized from his nation.Watch to watch today:The new month rally extended into Europe with Germany's DAX adding 0.8%, and the French CAC lifting 0.55% to start the new month.Over in The UK, the FTSE100 followed the global rally but investors were less confident, with the UK's key index closing Monday's session just 0.22% higher.The rally was fuelled by new UK Prime Minister Liz Truss saying the UK economy needs a reset and has pledged to prioritise ‘aspiration, enterprise and growth'. Ms Truss' government also scrapped plans to reduce taxes on the UK's higher earners.Taking a look at commodities, Brent crude settled 4.08% higher at US$88.61/barrel, gold is trading 2.43% higher at just under US$1700/ounce, but iron ore is down almost 3% at US$98/tonne.Ahead of the local trading day, ASX futures are expecting the Australian market to open sharply higher by 1.58% buoyed by the global rally overnight.On the economic data front, investors will be keeping a close eye on the RBA's interest rate decision for Australia's cash rate this month which is out at 1:30pm eastern daylight savings time today. New home loans and building permits data for August are also released today which will give an insight into the country's building and property market for August. Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has maintained a buy rating on Cogstate (ASX:CGS) and increased its price target on the neuroscience technology company from $1.95/share to $2.20/share driven by a modest decline in weighted average cost of capital due to decreased risk associated with future earnings, FDA regulatory approval and CMS imbursement and the evolving clinical trial execution of the Eisai strategy involving its ‘Dementia Ecosystem'.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Ridley Corp (ASX:RIC) following the formation of a pattern over a 33-day period, which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $1.99 to the range of $1.70-$1.76 according to standard principles of technical analysis.
Link zu unserer Discord Community https://discord.gg/TQrnHcnCFQ Unterstütze uns mit einer Mitgliedschaft www.promilleprozente.de Was ist überhaupt eine Anleihe und lohnt sich ein Investment in dieser Anlageklasse? In dieser Folge möchten wir euch festverzinsliche Wertpapiere (Anleihen) erklären. Wir sprechen über die möglichen Erträge, über das Verhältnis zwischen Aktien- und Anleihemarkt, über das Zusammenspiel von Primär- und Sekundärmarkt und das Verhältnis zwischen der Rendite und dem Wert einer Anleihe. Außerdem gehen wir auf die “inverse Zinskurve” ein, die nicht nur für den Anleihemarkt, sondern auch für den Aktienmarkt sehr relevant ist. Zu guter Letzt geben wir euch noch ein Bond-ETF mit auf den Weg, dass wir uns nun ins Depot legen werden. Themen in dieser Folge Intro: Überblick zur Folge (00:15) Basiswissen Anleihen (02:30) Erträge einer Anleihe (07:30) Anleihe- vs. Aktienmarkt (11:55) Handel von Anleihen (19:50) Zinsen vs. Wert einer Anleihe (23:12) Inverse Zinskurve (27:20) TLT ETF 20yr US-Bonds (31:48) Outro (35:45) Quellen, Links und Infos zu dieser Folge Anleihen leicht erklärt: https://www.mr-market.de/wie-funktionieren-eigentlich-anleihen/ Basiswissen und Geschichte zum Rentenmarkt: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rentenmarkt Inverse Zinskurve erklärt: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ayy2nRzaaN0 TLT 20y US Treasury Bond (WKN: A2JKTZ) So handeln wir Aktien und ETFs: Scalable Capital und Trade Republic https://financeads.net/tc.php?t=37121C142861264B * (Scalable Capital) https://financeads.net/tc.php?t=37121C274449894T * (Trade Republic) Kryptos: Kraken https://r.kraken.com/kmLEV * (*) Affiliate Link: Kostet dich nichts, wir bekommen eine Provision & können den Podcast finanzieren. Danke! Kontakt Mail: fanpost@promilleprozente.de Instagram: www.instagram.com/promilleprozente Twitter: https://twitter.com/Promille_Pod Web: www.promilleprozente.de Risikohinweis Die im Podcast geteilten Inhalte stellen keine Anlageberatung dar! Wir informieren in diesem Podcast lediglich über unsere persönlichen Interessen und Investitionsentscheidungen. Wir weisen ausdrücklich darauf hin, dass ein Kauf von Aktien oder anderen Finanzprodukten im schlimmsten Fall zu Verlusten bis hin zum Totalverlust des eingesetzten Vermögens führen kann. Wir übernehmen keine Haftung für entstandene Verluste. Foto: Moneyqanda --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/promilleprozente/message
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Japanese pension funds are scooping up a growing number of U S Treasury bonds, pushing them to the top of the list of foreign holders of U government debt foreign countries held a total of 7.55 trillion U.S. dollars in U.S. treasury securities as of September 2021. Japan held 1.3 trillion U.S. dollars. In 2021, the United States had a total public national debt of 28.43 trillion U.S. dollars https://www.statista.com/statistics/246420/major-foreign-holders-of-us-treasury-debt/ With the worlds largest public debts and a shrinking population, Japans pension funds have looked overseas for yield in recent years, and have been particularly attracted to U bonds, which pay higher returns than similarly rated debt While a small portion of the total, the purchases are a boon to the U Treasury, which has been looking to raise cash to finance record budget deficits, and analysts said they could also help the Federal Reserve as it tries to unwind its bond portfolio The Japanese have been buying U Treasuries for years and years, but it seems to be accelerating,a long-term trend that is going to continue Japanese investors have been particularly attracted to the high yields on U Treasury bonds, which are more attractive than similar-rated debt U Treasuries with a rating of Aaa yield around 4.5 percent, while Japanese bonds with a lower yield That is a big difference, considering the Japanese governments debt-to-GDP ratio is the highest in the world at over 200 percent, while the United States has a relatively low debt-to-GDP ratio of around 80 percent The Japanese government has also been buying U debt to help finance its own spending, as its domestic bond market has shrunk --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/david-nishimoto/message
In this week's podcast, we took a deep dive into the inverted yield curve for US Bonds, and gave our thoughts on when we could potentially be seeing the next recession using previous market trends. With the Ukraine war potentially ending (Putin held a phone call with Macron on Tuesday and discussed a peace talk) it could create a bullish environment for crypto, at least till the next FOMC meeting. If you're wondering how the FED impacts the market, this podcast is worth a listen! Visit https://www.performante.ca/ to join our Discord community, read the Modern Finance blog, or discover our alternative social media platforms. Thank you for your time, we truly appreciate it. We're forever thankful for the continued support of our amazing community.
Normally after Suspense aired at 8:00 over CBS stations on Thursdays, The FBI in Peace and War followed at 8:30. Thursday December 6th 1945's usually scheduled FBI in Peace and War was preempted for a special Victory Bond program, hosted by Bing Crosby and orchestra leader Paul Whiteman. ___________ Although In December of 1945 Bing Crosby was on strike with NBC, he had no problem donating his time and talent to CBS to help sell Victory Bonds. ___________ US Government Series E Bonds were first issued in 1941 to help pay for the US' Entry into World War II. Seven War bond drives had taken place throughout the war. The budgetary expenses for the years 1941–1945 amounted to $317 billion, of which $281 billion was directly related to the war effort. ___________ Expenditures had also fiscally climbed from $9.6 billion in 1940 to nearly $100 billion in 1945. The result of which was that in December of 1945, the U.S. War Debt was $240 Billion. ___________ The Victory bond effort was part of a renewed public service marketing campaign to help sell these US Bonds which accrued interest for 40 years. Print ads appeared in major newspapers and trade periodicals. Radio—long a patriotic organ—did its part of help. ___________ 407,316 American men and women had lost their lives in World War II. Another 671,278 were wounded. With these Victory Bonds, Americans could help make sure their wounded countrymen and women would be cared for. ___________ NBC dedicated its entire Saturday December 8th block of programming to the Victory Bond selling effort on the final day of the drive. Denominations were incrementally available between $25 and $10,000.
In this edition we look ahead to a key week of central bank meetings, explain what a more hawkish Fed outlook means for US Treasuries, consider whether the euro can depreciate further and look at what the latest economic data are telling us. Disclaimer. To stay connected and to access free to view reports and videos from HSBC Global Research click here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Today were going to talk about rebalancing. An investment portfolio is a group of assets you own. Ideally you have plan based on what you want that money for, when you need it, and how much risk you are willing to take in order to grow your investment. This investment plan typically includes asset allocation, which is the balance of different types investments you plan to use to achieve your goals. Invest according to your plan and you can think of your investment portfolio as “in balance”.There are two main things that can throw your investment allocation out of balance. First, your needs and goals may change and you realize your original allocation plan doesn’t fit your new situation. You may discover you need a different portfolio allocation than you have now. You are out of balance.One of the most common ways a good asset allocation gets out of balance is when one asset grows faster than another. Investment allocation is done by percentages. Let’s say based on your specific needs and tolerance for risk, you set your asset allocation at 50% of your investment dollars in a US Stocks, 25% in an International Stocks, and 25% in a US Bonds. Over time as your some investments grow faster than others, your allocation may drift to 55% invested US stocks, 25% International stocks, and 20% in bonds. To get back in balance, you would sell enough of your US stocks and using that to buy more bonds to bring your asset allocation back to your specific goal of 50/25/25. Keeping your risk at a level appropriate for you is the biggest benefit. Periodic rebalancing may also you earn a higher overall return. You’re selling relative winners to buy losers. And in this way you are following the mantra of successful investing – buy low and sell high. One of the easiest ways to is to invest in a target date fund, or if your in the Thrift Savings Plan, TSP Lifecycle Funds. Typically set up in retirement accounts, all you do is choose a fund that matches the year you plan to retire. Everyone’s investment in the fund will be allocated as part of a set plan, depending on how much time you have left to retirement. The fund will do the rebalancing for you to keep your asset allocation on target. The target date fund will also gradually shift you from a relatively risky allocation to less risky allocation percentages over time. Or you can rebalance yourself. With TSP you just is enter in your desired asset allocation percentages and TSP will do the rest. Outside TSP you may need to do some math to figure how much in dollars you need to buy and sell to get back to your target percentage. Some companies offer rebalancing tools to help you. Some offer mutual funds that maintain set asset allocations and rebalance automatically for you. Financial advisors can also help with this.Beware, there may be tax consequences. First, if you rebalance inside a retirement account like IRAs, TSP, and 401k you don’t pay any taxes on these trades until you pull the money out, usually in retirement. But if you are rebalancing a taxable investment account, you will owe capital gains tax on investments you sell. It’s a good time to go back and listen to Episode 44 of my podcast on Capital Gains Tax. And watch the Wash Sale tax rule. It’s a bit complicated, but in general if you buy and sell the same, or nearly identical, asset within 30 days, it is also not taxed favorably. Rebalancing less often will help you avoid this altogether. And epending on where you invest, you may have to pay fees when you buy and sell. The costs can mount up. How often? Setting time, like yearly is simplest. A second method is using tolerance bands. You do nothing when your investment allocation varies within a set range or band, like guardrails. If one asset gets out of bounds, it’s time to rebalance. This helps minimize unnecessary trading, but does require you to monitor your investments regularly.
It has been a strange an upsetting year in many ways. It has been particularly tough on folks trying to stock with an investment plan.Plus, a caller wonders what would happen if China sold all its US Bonds.
The Fed surprising investors with a half-point rate cut for the first time since the financial crisis. President Trump says it’s too little, too late...one economist tells us why he thinks it’s too much, too soon. The yield on the US 10-Year note falls below 1%, we’ll discuss the impact on mortgage-backed securities. And the Founder and CEO of Regeneron joins for an exclusive interview to shed light on the company’s quest to find a treatment for COVID-19. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Nearly a third of the bonds of the world are currently providing a negative yield. Does that fill anyone with confidence?
Kia ora and welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand. I'm Rebecca Caroe and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz. This podcast is supported by Hatch. With Hatch, Kiwis are accessing the most exciting initial public offerings. After years of sporadic IPOs, 2019 is set to be a banner year for well-known billion-dollar companies hitting the US share markets. In the first half of 2019, everyday investors welcomed the opportunity to buy shares in well-known companies like Uber, Slack, Zoom, Pinterest and Beyond Meat. Over 200 private companies worth over $1 billion are in the backlog, record highs that the market has never seen in history. With the impending Airbnb and WeWork listings, proceeds could make 2019 a record year for IPOs. To easily access newly listed companies on the US sharemarkets, visit hatchinvest.nz to learn more. Today this podcast leads with news recession warnings are piling up. This morning, Wall Street is flashing red lights. Equity markets are spooked by bond markets which say a US recession is coming. The S&P500 is down two point four percent, meaning the drop in August so far is four point three percent. The closely-watched 3 month - 10 year US Treasury bond curve is now remarkably inverted at -37 basis points. The two-ten curve is flat and about to invert too and that will be its first in 12 years. These are serious signals. Late in the European sessions, after Wall Street had opened, they too fell sharply, ending up down more than two percent. The triggers are weak data in both Germany and China. Both have been caused by capricious US tariff policy. This is a pure Trump recession. US import prices rose in July from June even if they are lower year-on-year. It was an uptick that wasn't expected. The recent US moves to "save Christmas" and the higher prices consumers will pay for the latest US tariffs, isn't bringing any similar concessions from China. If anything they are hardening their stance. As someone said, it's like Santa Claus stealing your bike and then giving it back as a present. China is not only dealing with the US trade war and unrest in Hong Kong, its economy is slowing faster now too. Industrial production data has posted its worst growth since 2002, up less than five percent in the year to July. Analysts had expected this to rise six percent and down from six point three percent in June. That is a fast decline. And that wasn't the only sharply negative data; retail sales rose 'only' seven point six percent in July from a year ago and way below the eight point six percent expected, and the June rise of nine point eight percent. At least the Chinese aren't gilding this data. But they are preventing the yuan from sliding too fast. German GDP actually fell in the second quarter of 2019 from the first quarter, and shows zero growth from the same quarter a year ago. EU GDP rose one point one percent in the second quarter of 2019, a slightly slower rate than in the first quarter and that's its slowest growth rate since 2014. [Advert] Did you know that we track the gold price in a bit of detail? We not only have the London Fix charted, but we also have buying prices for coins and bullion at local mints. You can find them at interest.co.nz/saving/gold-coins In the UK, speculation is growing that the new UK Prime Minister could suddenly declare Brexit now, taking the country out of Europe with an end-run around the Parliamentary process, and then call a general election. The UST 10yr yield has slumped nine basis points to be at just on one point five eight percent. Their 2-10 curve is now completely flat, and their negative one five curve is wider at 30 basis points. The widely-watched 3 month -10 year curve has ballooned out to negative 37 basis points. Gold has jumped 13 dollars today to 1,514 US dollars an ounce. US oil prices have dropped sharply today giving up yesterday's bump and more, and are now just on 55 US dollars a barrel and falling. The Brent benchmark is now at 59 dollars. The Kiwi dollar is weaker again today, at 64.3 US cents. On the cross rates we are up to 95.3 Australian cents. Against the euro we are unchanged at 57.7 euro cents. That puts the Trade Weighted Index at just on 69.7. You can find links to the articles mentioned today on our website. Get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz and subscribe to receive this podcast in your favourite podcast app - we're on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify or subscribe on our website. Tell your friends and leave us a review - we welcome feedback from listeners. Contact details admin@interest.co.nz I'm Rebecca Caroe. We'll do this again tomorrow.
Gary US Bonds was still just "US Bonds" on the record labels until shortly after this record came out. This week we look at the story behind this song, and how it influenced another hitmaker to write and produce Bonds' 1981 comeback hit.
Eddie takes a deep dive into the 2019 market direction with David Moadel, Chief Analyst and Opportunity Researcher for PortfolioWealthGlobal.com. In this wide-ranging discussion they cover everything from the likelihood of a near-term recession to a potential US-China trade deal, to retirement planning in the current market. [03:43] The likelihood of recession in 2019 [09:34] Drivers of inflation right now [11:52] Why there is so much talk about the markets crashing again [14:23] How a conventional trader should view algorithmic trading [18:06] Where growth and safety-minded investors can get consistent yield and persistent earnings [21:45] The importance of portfolio diversification and variety in this market environment [26:19] Other markets that would coincide with David’s direction on Gold [31:37] David’s report on the US Bonds being toxic [34:09] The potential US-China trade deal on the horizon, and what investors can expect [37:05] Topics discussed at Portfolio Wealth Global [44:00] Things to think about when nearing retirement [47:38] The Eddie Question: If Hollywood called and wanted you to make a movie, what kind of movie would it be and who would star in it? Editing & Post-Production by Dante32.
US Bonds have been in congestion. But are they now ready to resume their downtrend?
What is one of the most important stories of the last ten years? It's the one that major pop media outlets seem to have not been interested in telling: the government of China has dumped 97% of its US bonds. Why? We explain in this audio. It's extremely important that this move set off alarm bells for anyone willing to listen to this message. Get ready. Also, get ready for more and more "unconstitutional conditions" being placed on US citizens by the federal, state and local gubments. What do we mean? Listen to this audio as we make the connection between the TSA and Florida's welfare program... Important stuff. Be Seeing You!