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Looking back at some of the funnier and more memorable episodes. Focusing n a few specific topics from years ago. Thank you Ryan for putting this together. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along... Thanks again to the great Ryan Rediske for putting this episode together! This is a DH Unplugged chronicle of the rise and fall of the Facebook initial public offering; a cautionary tale of hubris and hype that ended with chaos, panic and scandal. Episode 139, February 7th, 2012, the Facebook IPO is announced with great expectations. John C Dvorak, our tech hero, makes two courageous and bold predictions. Andrew Horowitz, our financial wizard, combines his unmatched insight with his extensive analysis skills to summarize the fundamentals. April 11th, Facebook buys Instagram. John mentions a lost opportunity and Andrew questions the logic. May 3rd, The Instagram purchase is analyzed further. Begun, the patent wars have. May 10th, Facebook alters their S1. Pray they do not alter the deal further. John announces special Facebook Friday. Andrew foreshadows with concerns. May 16th, The price rises, the revenue falls. John is cheap faked for humorous effect. Andrew offers sage IPO purchase advice. May 23rd, John admires a Facebook hit piece. Andrew sheds light on some potentially shady underwriting. May 23rd, Andrew shorts Facebook. John lavishes him with praise. May 30th, John predicts law suits. Andrew senses foul play and greed. August 1st, Facebook stock plays limbo; how low can they go? Guess who they blame? September 5th, A major firm downgrades Facebook and Andrew predicts a short squeeze. October 10th, Facebook makes the cover of Barons. We join our heroes in the spring of 2011, discussing the potential for round three of the federal reserve's quantitative easing program to buy bonds and lower interest rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy. Episode 105, April 14th, Morgan Stanley estimates US GDP. John uses the words "bull crap". April 21st, The fed considers doubling down with a mediocre hand. Our dynamic duo sees this for what it really is. May 25th, Andrew displays an exercise in mental acuity. John lands an impressive judo chop. June 22nd, Bernanke to host an unprecedented "ask me anything" for his fans. Will it work? August 3rd, John shares his take. Andrew asks an important question about QE3. August 10th, Andrew analyzes an unexpected outcome. John says "interesting". September 21st, Our beloved hosts argue about the origin of twist and shout. John refrains from using the word scam. Episode 142, February 29th, 2012, Andrew finds a curious correlation. John offers a heartfelt apology. To himself. June 13th, Quantitative easing efficacy is questioned. September 5th, Andrew reaffirms Q E 3 still makes no sense. September 19th, John gets an idea. Andrew speculates that the federal reserve indulges in recreational drug use. December 12th, John tells a joke. Andrew says unlimited beer is stupid. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? The Closest to The Pin - Carvana (CVNA) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) - PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate.. FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Lyn Alden is a macroeconomist and investment strategist. In this interview, we discuss her latest article: How the Fed “Went Broke”. Lyn explains how for the first time in modern history the Federal Reserve is operating at a loss. We talk about the ramifications in terms of continuing high inflation, the bankruptcy of government agencies, and the impacts on the Fed's independence. - - - - Bitcoin was born when the global economic machine was showing signs of a terminal illness. Since then, governments around the world are trying to keep the system alive, using measures that will in fact hasten its demise. Due to misaligned political incentives, greed and ignorance, the world's economy is now entering an unprecedented period of serious economic trauma. Government bailouts are not new. Alexander Hamilton in 1792 used federal funds to prevent the collapse of the securities market. However, it was the use of Quantitative Easing (QE) to prop up the financial system during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) when the Rubicon was crossed. The Fed bought over $2 trillion of commercial bank assets in 2008/9, paid for through an increase in the monetary base. The main problem with the GFC was governments became tolerant of the new drug of choice: QE leading to an erosion of market discipline. QE3 started in late 2012, was nicknamed “QE infinity”. It result in $4.5 trillion of commercial bank assets being bought by the Fed. QE4, in response to the Covid pandemic, resulted in the Fed purchasing another $2 trillion of assets. Since 2008, the monetary base in the US has increased by 750%. The inevitable result is inflation. The response by central banks is to increase interest rates, a tool that doesn't apply to the problem at hand: unsustainable levels of debt. Higher interest affects the cost of their liabilities, such that they are now, for the first time ever, in negative equity. They are “broke”. What the markets know but politicians aren't willing to accept is that this is a new paradigm. The UK Prime Minister Liz Truss was ousted after only 49 days when markets decided unfunded tax cuts with debt to GDP over 100% were irresponsible. The growing realisation is that budget deficits need to be cut. Smaller governments are likely whether people want them or not.
“What they did back in 2008…they said, ‘Well, we're going to create a tonne of new base money, we're going to buy some of those assets to reliquefy the system.' And so, it's not an exaggeration to say it's essentially like a Ponzi scheme, it's something that has to keep growing in order to function.”— Lyn AldenLyn Alden is a macroeconomist and investment strategist. In this interview, we discuss her latest article: How the Fed “Went Broke”. Lyn explains how for the first time in modern history the Federal Reserve is operating at a loss. We talk about the ramifications in terms of continuing high inflation, the bankruptcy of government agencies, and the impacts on the Fed's independence.- - - - Bitcoin was born when the global economic machine was showing signs of a terminal illness. Since then, governments around the world are trying to keep the system alive, using measures that will in fact hasten its demise. Due to misaligned political incentives, greed and ignorance, the world's economy is now entering an unprecedented period of serious economic trauma. Government bailouts are not new. Alexander Hamilton in 1792 used federal funds to prevent the collapse of the securities market. However, it was the use of Quantitative Easing (QE) to prop up the financial system during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) when the Rubicon was crossed. The Fed bought over $2 trillion of commercial bank assets in 2008/9, paid for through an increase in the monetary base.The main problem with the GFC was governments became tolerant of the new drug of choice: QE leading to an erosion of market discipline. QE3 started in late 2012, was nicknamed “QE infinity”. It result in $4.5 trillion of commercial bank assets being bought by the Fed. QE4, in response to the Covid pandemic, resulted in the Fed purchasing another $2 trillion of assets. Since 2008, the monetary base in the US has increased by 750%. The inevitable result is inflation. The response by central banks is to increase interest rates, a tool that doesn't apply to the problem at hand: unsustainable levels of debt. Higher interest affects the cost of their liabilities, such that they are now, for the first time ever, in negative equity. They are “broke”. What the markets know but politicians aren't willing to accept is that this is a new paradigm. The UK Prime Minister Liz Truss was ousted after only 49 days when markets decided unfunded tax cuts with debt to GDP over 100% were irresponsible. The growing realisation is that budget deficits need to be cut. Smaller governments are likely whether people want them or not. - - - - This episode's sponsors:Gemini - Buy Bitcoin instantlyIris Energy - Bitcoin Mining. Done Sustainably Ledn - Financial services for Bitcoin hodlersBitcasino - The Future of Gaming is hereLedger - State of the art Bitcoin hardware walletFortris - Digital asset treasury operationsWasabi Wallet - Privacy by default-----WBD627 - Show Notes-----If you enjoy The What Bitcoin Did Podcast you can help support the show by doing the following:Become a Patron and get access to shows early or help contributeMake a tip:Bitcoin: 3FiC6w7eb3dkcaNHMAnj39ANTAkv8Ufi2SQR Codes: BitcoinIf you do send a tip then please email me so that I can say thank youSubscribe on iTunes | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | Deezer | TuneIn | RSS FeedLeave a review on iTunesShare the show and episodes with your friends and familySubscribe to the newsletter on my websiteFollow me on Twitter Personal | Twitter Podcast | Instagram | Medium | YouTubeIf you are interested in sponsoring the show, you can read more about that here or please feel free to drop me an email to discuss options.
Bill Nelson is the Chief Economist and an Executive Vice President at the Bank Policy Institute. Bill previously was a deputy director at the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board where his responsibilities included monetary policy analysis, discount window policy analysis, and financial institution supervision. He also worked closely with the BIS on the design of liquidity regulation. Bill joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the Fed's balance sheet, its reduction plans and how the Fed fell behind the curve. Specifically, David and Bill get into whether the Fed regretted its premature tightening period from 2015 to 2018, how the Fed's focus on the baseline outlook left it not resilient to alternative developments, how concerns over another taper tantrum impacted the Fed's decision-making, the Fed's handling of its FAIT framework, and much more. Take the Macro Musings listener survey here. Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings Bill's Bank Policy Institute profile: https://bpi.com/people/bill-nelson/ Bill's American Banker archive: https://www.americanbanker.com/author/william-nelson-ab3618 Related Links: “Plane Crashes and Falling Behind the Curve” by Bill Nelson https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/plane-crashes-falling-behind-curve-bill-nelson/?trk=articles_directory “Guest post: A former Fed insider explains the internal debate over QE3” by Bill Nelson https://www.ft.com/content/254befb7-10f8-3f2c-a9a8-bc6226a6f1db “Interpreting the Significance of the Lagged Interest Rate in Estimated Monetary Policy Rules” by William B. English, William R. Nelson, and Brian P. Sack https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=314425 David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David's blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/
PART 01: Fifty years ago the "Nixon Shock" closed the 'Gold Window' on "international speculators" and killed the Bretton Woods gold exchange era. That's what we're told. Actually, Bretton Woods died a decade (or more!) earlier; it's just that we only noticed in 1971.PART 02: The IMF will 'print' $650 billion -- BILLION! -- in SDR-money to help with global liquidity. BIG numbers! BIG Deal! But we've heard this before from the IMF, like in 2009, their last BIGGEST EVER allocation, which was as effective as QE1, QE2, QE3, QE4, QE5, QE6... PART 03: "This might be one of the biggest downward revisions I have ever observed," says Jeff Snider. The benchmark revision to Real Personal Income ERASED billions of dollars in presumed earnings from US workers since 2015, and especially in 2020 to 2021. "Truly stunning."-----SEE EPISODE 94-------Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL-----HEAR EPISODE 94-----Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----EP. 94a REFERENCES----No Matter What They Say, the Future Isn't Inflationary: https://bit.ly/3AjfK6NRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7----EP. 94b REFERENCES----Sophistry Dressed (as) Reallocation: https://bit.ly/3rZOhUMAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin----EP. 94c REFERENCES----Inflation Estimates (PCE) *Totally* Overshadowed By Benchmark Income Revisions, And The (Deflationary) Implications of Them: https://bit.ly/3yB5JkY-----------WHO-------------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Sweet Distraction" by Ealot from Epidemic Sound.
Ep65 OverviewIn Episode 65, Emma from Emma Cruises drops by to update us on her recent Celebrity Silhouette cruise and naming of Saga's Spirit of Adventure. Chris answers a listener question about Queen Elizabeth and we wrap up with a bumper edition of cruise news.Buy Me A CoffeeThis podcast is only possible thanks to our supporters, simply buying a coffee keeps us on air. It is just like shouting your mate a coffee, and we consider our listeners close mates. https://bit.ly/2T2FYGXEmma CruisesEmma joins the show this week, be sure to drop by her social pages and follow her on YouTube: Website: emmacruises.comFacebook: @EmmaCruises Instagram: @EmmaCruises YouTube: @EmmaCruises Maritime HistoryListener Ian, asks, Why is the current Cunard ship, Queen Elizabeth, not referred to as QE3?Image Credit: Queen Elizabeth, Cunard LineCruise NewsPrincess Cruises and Holland America Line Kick Off Return to Service in the U.S. from Port of SeattleTo kick off their return to service in the U.S., Princess Cruises and Holland America Line held a celebration at the Port of Seattle (23 July 2021). Jan Swartz, president of Princess Cruises, and Gus Antorcha, president of Holland America Line, spoke to what the positive multidimensional impact the resumption of cruising means to Seattle, the local community and Alaska.Holland America Line will kicked off its Alaska season with Nieuw Amsterdam setting sail, July 24, and Princess Cruises followed with Majestic Princess sailing on July 25. Each line will operate ten cruises sailing out of Seattle through September. This marks the return to cruising and Alaska for both lines, which combined have more than 125 years of experience bringing cruisers to The Great Land. Historically, one in two guests who cruise to Alaska sail on Princess or Holland America.Both cruise lines have been homeporting out of the Port of Seattle for more than 20 years. Operationally, each ship visit directly contributes more than $364,000 to the local economy in provisioning (fuel, food, flowers, piano tuning, supplies), port taxes, and spending during a full season.Princess Cruises is the world's leading international premium cruise line and tour company operating a fleet of 14 modern cruise ships to 380 destinations around the globe. Princess celebrates more than 50 years sailing to Alaska, bringing more guests to the Great Land than any other cruise line. Holland America Line has been exploring the world since 1873 and was the first cruise line to offer adventures to Alaska and the Yukon nearly 75 years ago. Its fleet of premium ships visits more than 400 ports in 98 countries around the world, offering an ideal mid-sized ship experience.Princess Cruises Celebrates 20th Anniversary of Shore Power in JuneauPrincess Cruises made history when the cruise line introduced its revolutionary shore power program and began operations in partnership with the City and Borough of Juneau and Alaska Electric Light and Power Company in the summer of 2001. Now, 20 years later when Princess Cruises vessels arrive at the Franklin Dock, ships continue to “plug in” to local surplus hydroelectric power and turn off the diesel engines, reducing the impact of visible air emissions and the cruise line's carbon footprint in an effort applauded by local government officials and the residents of the capital city.The 20th anniversary milestone was recognized as Majestic Princess made her maiden call to the port of Juneau and commissioned to connect to the Juneau electrical grid. Princess Cruises President Jan Swartz, Majestic Princess Captain Dino Sagani, Alaska Electric Light and Power Company President and General Manager Connie Hulbert and Juneau Mayor Beth Weldon and City Manager Rorie Watt were in attendance.“Shore power in Juneau has been a significant win-win situation, not only for Princess but also for the customers of Alaska Electric Light and Power Company and the residents of the City and Borough of Juneau who have been incredible partners over the last 20 years,” said Jan Swartz, Princess Cruises president. “Our beneficial collaboration has paved the way for the cruise industry to reduce air emissions and allow cruise ships to ‘plug in.'”In addition to this investment, for the past 20 years, every dollar spent by Princess for purchasing electrical energy in Juneau has been credited to a cost of power adjustment, or COPA account. This credit is used to offset any diesel expenses in the next quarter, and any extra funds go back to residents and businesses in Juneau in the form of a rebate on electric bills. To date, this has benefitted the Juneau community by $8.5 million dollars.Each year, Princess ships plug in more than 300 shore power connections. This ground-breaking technology has now grown and is used by various cruise lines in port cities including Seattle (2005), Vancouver (2009), San Diego (2010), San Francisco (2010), Los Angeles (2011), New York (2012) and Halifax (2014), as well as internationally in Shanghai and Kristiansand, Norway, with more and more port cities becoming shore power enabled.The length of time needed to connect a ship to shore power and shut down the vessel's diesel generator is approximately 40 minutes after the ship has been secured at the dock. Once connected, the ship's engines are powered down and the ships relies on the local power system for all ship's services while in port. Holland America Line Takes Delivery of Highly Anticipated New Ship Rotterdam from FincantieriHolland America Line took delivery of Rotterdam today, July 30, 2021, officially making it the 11th ship in the fleet. A handover ceremony took place at Fincantieri's Marghera shipyard in ItalyThe ceremony was attended by the ship's master, Captain Werner Timmers, and Cyril Tatar, Holland America Group's vice president of newbuilding services. Giuseppe Bono, CEO, Fincantieri, and several other executives also attended. Video congratulations were extended by Jan Swartz, president of Holland America Group, and Gus Antorcha, president of Holland America Line.Upon delivery, Rotterdam will remain in non-guest operations until its transatlantic crossing Oct. 20, 2021, from Amsterdam, Netherlands, to Fort Lauderdale, Florida, where it will then begin its maiden season in the Caribbean. Naming details have not been finalized and will be announced at a later date.The third vessel in the Pinnacle Class series and the seventh ship to bear the name for Holland America Line, Rotterdam will carry 2,668 guests and feature highly successful amenities and innovations introduced with her sister ships.Holland America Line's first ship was Rotterdam, which sailed its maiden voyage from the Netherlands to New York on Oct. 15, 1872, and led to the founding of the company on April 18, 1873. Rotterdam II was built in 1878 for British Ship Owners Co. and purchased by Holland America Line in 1886. Rotterdam III came along in 1897 and was with the company until 1906. The fourth Rotterdam joined the fleet in 1908 and also served as a troop carrier when World War I ended. Following the war it made regular cruises from New York to the Mediterranean.Rotterdam V, also known as “The Grande Dame,” set sail in 1959 and began sailing transatlantic crossings with two classes of service. It later converted to a one-class ship in 1969. She sailed with Holland America Line for 38 years until 1997, including several Grand World Voyages, and currently is a hotel and museum in the city of Rotterdam. Rotterdam VI, the most recent to cruise for Holland America Line, was introduced in 1997 as the first ship in the R Class.Rotterdam VII is the 17th ship constructed for the brand by Italian shipyard Fincantieri.Norwegian Cruise Line returns to cruiseNorwegian Cruise Line (NCL), officially commemorated its highly-anticipated cruise comeback on 25 July, 2021 with a double debut: Norwegian Jade was not only the first of its 17-ship fleet to welcome guests after 500 days, she also made NCL history as the first vessel to homeport in Athens (Piraeus).Until November 2021, guests sailing aboard Norwegian Jade's immersive Greek Isles itinerary will wake up in a new destination every day, able to spend eight-to-nine hours exploring some of Greece's most picturesque islands including luxurious Crete, bustling Mykonos, historical Rhodes and the iconic blue and white Santorini.Norwegian Jade is the first ship to recommence voyages as part NCL's larger restart efforts. On 7 August, 2021, Norwegian Encore will be the first ship to return to service from the U.S., when she debuts in Seattle for her inaugural season of Alaska cruises. The fleetwide redeployment will continue in partnership with local governments and are guided by the robust protocols of the Company's Sail Safe health and safety program, which at its cornerstone includes that all crew and guests must be fully vaccinated to embark for voyages through 31 October, 2021. Working with the leading experts of the Sail Safe Global Health and Wellness Council, the robust protocols will regularly be evaluated and modified as needed, making science-based decisions to protect guests, crew and the destinations it visits.MSC Seashore Delivered The Cruise Division of MSC Group has officially taken delivery of its new flagship MSC Seashore – the largest cruise ship to be built in Italy. Sister ship MSC Seascape is currently under construction at the Monfalcone shipyard and is due to come into service in winter 2022.An intimate ceremony was held to mark the occasion as tradition dictates at the Fincantieri shipyard in Monfalcone and was attended in person by MSC Cruises Executive Chairman Pierfrancesco Vago, other members of the Aponte and Aponte-Vago families, Giampiero Massolo and Giuseppe Bono, Chairman and CEO of Fincantieri, as well as representatives from MSC's new builds team along with executives and workers from the shipyard. During the ceremony, which pays tribute to centuries-old maritime traditions, Roberto Olivari, Fincantieri's shipyard director, presented to Giuseppe Galano, Master of MSC Seashore, an ampoule containing the water that first touched the hull when the ship was floated out earlier this year.MSC Seashore will commence her inaugural season in the Mediterranean offering the popular West Mediterranean itinerary calling the Italian ports of Genoa, Naples, for visits also to Pompeii, and Messina in Sicily; Valletta, Malta; Barcelona, Spain and Marseille, France.On 31 October, the ship will depart Genoa for an epic 18-night cruise as the ship repositions to North America. From 20 November the ship will then offer 7-night cruises in the Caribbean calling San Juan in Puerto Rico, Charlotte Amalie in St Thomas, Puerto Plata in the Dominican Republic and then Ocean Cay MSC Marine Reserve in The Bahamas – MSC Cruises' private island.MSC Seashore Key Specs:Length/beam/height: 339 /41m/76mGross tonnage: 170,400Guests: 5,877 (max capacity for short international voyage)Cabins: 2,270Crew: 1,648Maximum speed: about 22.4 knotsFlagship of MSC Cruises global fleet19th cruise ship to join MSC Cruises' fleeMSC, FINCANTIERI AND SNAM TO PARTNER FOR WORLD'S FIRST OCEANGOING HYDROGEN-POWERED CRUISE SHIPThe Cruise Division of MSC Group, Fincantieri and Snam announced the signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to jointly determine the conditions for the design and construction of what would become the world's first oceangoing hydrogen-powered cruise ship.The owner of the world's third largest cruise brand and part of the leading global shipping and logistics conglomerate MSC Group, one of the world's largest shipbuilding groups and a leading international energy infrastructure operator, have joined forces to initially carry out a study that will assess the feasibility of designing and building the world's first oceangoing cruise ship powered by hydrogen, which would allow zero-emissions operations in certain areas, and the development of the related hydrogen bunkering infrastructure.Green hydrogen can be produced without fossil fuels, using renewable energy to split water in a process called electrolysis and can therefore be emissions-free on a full lifecycle basis. It can be used to generate electrical power through a fuel cell, emitting only water vapor and heat. This type of ‘green' hydrogen holds great potential to contribute to the decarbonisation of the shipping industry, including cruising, whether in its pure form or as a hydrogen-derived fuel.Azamara Quest departs from Glasgow Ahead of the Brand's Return to ServiceAzamara, today announced that Azamara Quest® was the first of its ships to depart from Glasgow's Peel Port (King George V Dock), on the afternoon of July 26th, following thirteen months docked in the Scottish city.For over a year, Glasgow has been a safe haven for three of Azamara's fleet, Azamara Quest®, Azamara Journey® and Azamara Pursuit®, and in this time the ships and crew have enjoyed fantastic support from the local people and the authorities, businesses, including taxi companies, hotel owners and grocery stores.The ship sails for drydock in Cadiz, Spain to finalize preparations ahead of its return to service in August with five back-to-back Greece Country-Intensive® Voyages®; each seven-nights in length and a total of 18-late nights in port, including Santorini, Rhodes and Heraklion, Greece. Bringing the culture and heritage of destinations onboard, these sailings will debut a brand-new immersive onboard program for guests – Destination Celebration – the adaptation of AzAmazing Evenings®.Celebrity Cruises' return to service of Celebrity Equinox and Celebrity MillenniumCelebrity Equinox returned to the water yesterday on Sunday, 25 July, departing from Fort Lauderdale for the Caribbean. The recently ‘revolutionised' Celebrity Equinox's first sailing features a seven-night Western Caribbean itinerary visiting the beautiful ports of St. Maarten and St. Thomas, along with Nassau, Bahamas. This sailing marks eight of the 14 ships within the Celebrity Cruises' fleet returning to sailing in 2021Celebrity Millennium also set sail last week on Friday, 23 July, from Seattle, Washington on a seven-night itinerary exploring the renowned natural beauty of the Last Frontier. Guests will be treated to an experience that is as beautiful as the scenery they will encounter as they sail past Alaska's breath-taking glaciers and landscapes including Ketchikan and Endicott Arm and Dawes Glacier.AIDA Cruises restarts AIDAluna in September from KielAIDA Cruises today announced that on Sept. 5 AIDAluna will be the seventh ship in the AIDA fleet to restart guest operations in 2021.Up to and including Oct. 14, 2021, a variety of travel dates for three- and four-day cruises departing from Kiel are now available for booking.On the four-day voyage, AIDAluna will call at the Polish port of Gdynia after a relaxing sea day passing the island of Gotland, among others.“Scenic Cruising” is also the motto on the first day of the three-day cruise from Kiel, which leads to the Swedish metropolis of Gothenburg. Both voyages will be offered alternately.By the end of this year AIDA Cruises plans to have 10 ships sailing, offering travelers a broad range of vacation options — including its highly anticipated new ship, AIDAcosma, to be delivered in December 2021Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines unveils brand new 101-night Around the World Voyage aboard Borealis in 2024Fred. Olsen Cruise Lines has today unveiled the first sailing from its 2024 programme – an epic 101-night Around the World adventure taking in the USA, Australasia, Asia and Europe.The cruise, which is setting sail from Southampton in January 2024, offers a wealth of once-in-a-lifetime experiences, from calls into the historic cities of Jerusalem and Bethlehem, to visits to the Great Barrier Reef in Australia and the chance to step ashore in the rarely-visited Alotau in Papau New Guinea.Fred. Olsen's team of Journey Planners has hand-crafted this sailing to allow plenty of time ashore in each port of call, made possible by the faster sailing speeds, with extended overnight stays in Charleston, Aukland, Sydney, Australia and Dubai.Guests will also have the opportunity to venture to the famous Taj Mahal in an extended, three-day overland tour from Mumbai in India.Viking Welcomes Guests Back on Board for River Voyages in FranceViking celebrated this week, the official restart of its popular river itineraries in France, marking the latest milestone as the company resumes operations in Europe. Guests are now embarking journeys on the Seine and Rhône rivers for the Paris & the Heart of Normandy, Lyon & Provence and France's Finest itineraries.Viking's voyage in Bordeaux, Chateaux, Rivers and Wine, will resume in August.Along with restarting river operations in France, Viking has launched four new Viking Longships® that are purpose-built specifically to navigate the Seine River. Hosting 168 guests in 84 staterooms, Viking Kari, Viking Radgrid, Viking Skaga and Viking Fjorgyn dock at Viking's exclusive docking location in the center of Paris, just a short walking distance from the Eiffel Tower.Star Cruises Presented with the Special Award for Community Care at the Singapore Tourism Awards 2021Star Cruises was presented with the Special Award for Community Care, by the Guest of Honour, Minister of Trade and Industry, Mr Gan Kim Yong at this year's Singapore Tourism Awards 2021 for its pioneering and key role in providing temporary housing for over 8,000 recovered COVID-19 migrant workers aboard it ships, SuperStar Gemini and SuperStar Aquarius last year, from 29 Apr – 30 Sep 2020 (5 months). The only two vessels in the world to be successfully repurposed to provide temporary accommodations for recovered COVID-19 migrant workers, Star Cruises set a new milestone for Singapore and globally, as well as for the cruise industry in its joint-effort to fight against the pandemic.Meeting Singapore's strict requirements for this first-of-a-kind special initiative last year, Star Cruises was able to participate and effectively contribute towards creating an alternative accommodation option for Singapore to temporarily house its recovered COVID-19 migrant workers in a safe and comfortable environment on board the two ships. From this learning experience, Genting Cruise Lines had created a positive opportunity to implement enhanced safety and preventive measures across its fleet, which formed the initial foundation for many of its current protocolsDream Cruises Celebrates the Inaugural Cruise of Genting Dream in Hong Kong; First Cruise Ship to Restart Service in the CityDream Cruises officially re-started its cruise service in Hong Kong on 30 July with Genting Dream's maiden voyage of her first “Super Seacation” high seas itinerary. Genting Dream's new high seas cruises will provide Hong Kong residents with a new “staycation' option that will truly evoke the sense of a “vacation away” to enhance their holiday experience. Over 1,000 enShow NotesEthical Cruise T-Shirts Now available branded podcast t-shirts, cruise-tees and Christmas gifts or design your own in the studio. All using organic cotton, printed using green energy and plastic-free packaging! https://bit.ly/32G7RdhJoin the show:If you have a cruise tip, burning question or want to record a cruise review get in touch with us via the website https://thebigcruisepodcast.com/join-the-show/ Guests: Chris Frame: https://bit.ly/3a4aBCg Chris's Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/user/ChrisCunard Peter Kollar: https://www.cruising.org.au/Home Listen & Subscribe: Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2XvD7tF Castbox: https://bit.ly/2xkGBEI Google Podcasts: https://bit.ly/2RuY04u I heart Radio: https://ihr.fm/3mVIEUASpotify: https://spoti.fi/3caCwl8 Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2JWE8Tz Pocket casts: https://bit.ly/2JY4J2M Tune in: https://bit.ly/2V0Jrrs Podcast Addict: https://bit.ly/2BF6LnE Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts. In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including: The bond market recovery in March 2021; Our performance in the month; Complex issues with bank liquidity coverage ratios; The RBA’s QE3 program; Credit market performance; Upside surprises to Federal and State budget deficits; and Australia’s housing affordability non-crisis. This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.
Episode three of a 10 part series on the first ten years of bitcoin we first broadcast in 2019.In this episode of TO THE MOON, Max and Stacy remain in 2011, a year when bitcoin was still ‘magical internet money’. It is also the year when bitcoiners met in ‘meatspace’ at the first bitcoin conferences, including Prague, where Max Keiser spoke and Amir Taaki hosted. In terms of the ‘permissionless’ nature of bitcoin, TO THE MOON flashes back to archival footage of an interview with John Perry Barlow, author of ‘A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace’, in which Max asks him “what happened to the internet?”TO THE MOON then talks to Nozomi Hayase about ‘natural law’ and how that governs bitcoin, while Rodolfo Novak notes that Satoshi remained anonymous because it is important for a permissionless system to not have somebody who rules it or who has too much authority over it. The episode then takes us into 2012 when QE3 already began and markets were soaring on freshly printed money and yet central banks started to worry about bitcoin as Tuur Demeester notes from the Keiser Report archives.
This episode of Flashback Friday was initially published: 9/17/2012 Jason Hartman welcomes guest co-host/listener, Brandon, from Portland, Oregon, as they discuss several things. First, a discussion of some of Jason's recent book consumption, including; Abundance: The Future is Better Than You Think by Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler and Free: The Future of a Radical Price by Chris Anderson. Next, Jason and Brandon analyze Peter Schiff's most recent video criticizing Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and QE3 (Quantitative Easing). Peter has some things right and others wrong. As Jason has pointed out in so many prior episodes, gold and silver are mediocre asset classes and shouldn't be considered 'investments' but somewhat defensive ways to save money, store wealth and keep pace with inflation. An investment is an OFFENSIVE tool; gold and silver are only defensive tools. The real way to profit is to exploit the next housing bubble. Some of the questions covered in this episode are: Abundance - Peter H. Diamandis & Steven Kotler 1. In what ways is the world getting better? It sure seems like there is a lot of negativity out there. 2. How will technology provide "top-tier" education to everyone on the planet, as Diamandis & Kotler mention in the book? Free - Chris Anderson 1. Chris Anderson mentions that some things can be too cheap to meter. What sort of goods is he referencing, and what is the cause of this innovation? 2. How will the big companies like Microsoft compete with the free model? 3. Who wins with "free" - businesses or consumers? 4. Will we ever get to the point where almost everything in our lives is free? Peter Schiff on QE3 1. Is the goal of QE3 to drive up asset prices? It seems to me that asset price increase in housing will only cause the illusion of wealth. 2. Why would QE3 work this time if it didn't work before? Websites: www.JasonHartman.com www.JasonHartman.com/properties Jason Hartman PropertyCast (Libsyn) Jason Hartman PropertyCast (iTunes) 1-800-HARTMAN
https://youtu.be/qPnk57P2dhM Recorded on: January 9, 2020 Ben Hunt, the co-founder of Second Foundation Partners, joins the show. Topics: Bitcoin, central banks, boom bust cycles, and how they all relate to his small family farm Twitter @epsilontheory SHOW TRANSCRIPT (edited) Albert Lu: From the NXT Studios in Southern California, this is the Power & Market Report. I'm your host Albert Lu. My guest today is Ben Hunt. He's the co-founder of Second Foundation Partners, the publisher of Epsilon Theory, an online source for financial market commentary. Ben, this is your first time on the Power & Market Report. Thanks very much for joining me today. How are you? Ben Hunt: It's great to be here. Thanks for having me. AL: Ben we met, sort of briefly, a little over a year ago at the New Orleans conference, when I was moderating a panel that you participated in with Peter Schiff and Mike Larson. I thought your ideas were very interesting. Unfortunately, we were sharing the time, of course, with other people. I didn't get a chance to delve deeper, so I was hoping to take this opportunity to delve deeper into your thoughts and maybe how they've changed in the last year and a half for my own edification. I want to say, as we start, that I wasn't familiar with your work prior to New Orleans, so in preparation for that panel I did do a little homework and came across your interview with Grant Williams of Real Vision. I'm a big fan of Grant and what he and Raoul are doing over there, and I thought it was just a splendid interview, really nice. Maybe share with the viewers first what you do, but also your background as what you called, I think, a dilettante farmer. Get into that a little bit. BA: That's me. That's me. You know, I've done a lot of different things in my life. You know, my wife says I can't keep a job. So that’s what’s been the, I'll say, the strand that goes through all of them — trying to be … I'm a puzzle solver. I like to figure out puzzles. And, you know, I started as an academic. I got my PhD in political science, of all oxymorons. And because they're trying to figure out the puzzle of, you know — how do countries interact with each other, right, or how do voters, as in sort of the behavior of crowds, how does that work? And, for ten years I was in academia — I was a professor. And, you know, the issues I wrote on — the research I did was trying to figure out how are crowds, in this case, voting crowds, how are they impacted by the words we hear, the stories we are told, right, the narratives as I like to describe them? The problem, of course, with academia, is that the puzzles you're trying to solve, you’re locked in your little garret, and you're publishing it, maybe, to a very small audience. And so, I always was interested in a much larger puzzle, which is the puzzle of markets, the game of markets. So, I had the opportunity to leave academia, first with starting a software company. We did well with that — sold that. Then I got into the investment world, first from venture capital, some private equity, but finally into public markets, I say the biggest game of them all. And, trying to understand that puzzle, ran a hedge fund for seven or eight years. We got that up to about a billion dollars and never lost money for clients, and still very proud of that. Had a tremendous year in 2008. But from March of 2009 onwards, it was like you went to the switch on the wall and you flipped off the lights. Returns really flat-lined. They say we never lost money, but the investment world really changed. I can point to the date in March of 2009 when I'll say, not just, the Federal Reserve, but central banks all over the world, took this very interventionist policy, I think probably smartly, rightly in March of 2009. But what do you see both in our recent past, but also in every time when you have these emergency government actions, they always become permanent government policy. And, that's certainly what we've endured over the last decade in markets. It's what we endured in my hedge fund, where the fundamentals didn't seem to matter anymore. And, they say, didn't seem to matter — they really didn't matter anymore. So, you know, we gave all the money back to our clients and I decided I'd really take some time off to try to figure this out. You know, what does matter today, in either of managing other people's money or investing our own money? And, that's why I started writing Epsilon Theory. I'll get back to, and we tell what that means: Epsilon Theory. But, the whole idea of Epsilon Theory is that, it's not alpha and beta — it's not looking at the fundamentals of this or the, in terms of beta, the overall market of that. What is really driving both our political, but also our investment games today, I think, is that first research puzzle of mine, the use of narratives — the way that we, as a crowd of in this case investors, respond in systematic ways to what we are told, whether it's called forward guidance from central banks, whether it's Trump tweets, whether it's Cramer on CNBC, you know? We’re immersed in this ocean of messages and stories and narratives to a degree that, you know, I don't think has ever existed. And so, that's the puzzle I'm trying to figure out. That's the puzzle that I write about. It's to focus, not on the fundamentals, but actually on the narratives, because I really believe, more and more, that's the answer for figuring out the game of markets. That's what I do. That's what I do, Albert. AL: I think, and tell me whether or not you agree with this, Ben, but the reason that narratives have become so important, and I do agree with you on that point, is because the Federal Reserve and the federal government — you know, together controlling fiscal and monetary policy — wield so much power, and they are accountable in some sense to public opinion, and public opinion is swayed by narrative. So, you don't have independent investors — you have one big investor in the Federal Reserve that can buy trillions and trillions of securities. And then, you have a taxing authority that can tax and spend on things. And they just make too big of a splash, so you have to respect that. Do you agree with that? BH: Well, I do, Albert. But I would go even farther frankly, because it's not just, what I'll call, the mechanistic impact of, in the case, central banks buying securities — you know, adding to their balance sheet by buying financial assets. Yes, that has an impact right. It is the tide that lifts all boats. It is the avowed purpose of large-scale asset purchases. But, what I think is even more important today than the mechanistic impact of the actual purchasing of securities is, what I'll call, what we would call in game theory, the common knowledge game — the role of words, of forward guidance, of what they call in the Federal Reserve: communication policy. And, I say this not in some tinfoil hat conspiracy notion, but I often talk about how Ben Bernanke, in his last speech as Fed chair — it's interesting what people say in their last speech right? You know, George Washington talks about the dangers of entangling alliances. In his farewell speech, Dwight Eisenhower talked about beware the military-industrial complex — I mean Dwight Eisenhower for God's sake is warning about a military-industrial complex? Well, Ben Bernanke kind of had a similar moment in his very last speech as Fed chair. And, it’s a wonderful talk. He says, well you know I’ve been here for eight years. First four years, all right, seem to be steady she goes, right? Those last four years, because the last four-year term started and it’s been quite a doozy, right? And he said, well, the first thing we did in response to the great financial crisis, we used the toolkit that the central bankers have always had, right? We took interest rates, short-term interest rates, down to zero. We didn't know at the time we could have negative interest rates, we just took it down to zero. And, that's what we thought we could do. It wasn't working for us, so he came up with a second set of tools: the quantitative easing or the large-scale asset purchases. And, Bernanke says: look, I think QE1 was really successful. Yeah, speaking myself, Ben Hunt, I agree. I think you won, actually saved the world. I think that's what central banks are supposed to do, right? They are supposed to provide that emergency liquidity, that emergency shot of adrenaline when the heart of the global market economy stops beating. But, like I say, the problem is that emergency government action always becomes permanent government policy. And, that's certainly what’s happened. Today, we now have a permanent IV-drip of adrenaline in the form of these large-scale asset purchases. And, the crazy thing is Bernanke agrees with this. In his last speech he says, you know, frankly QE2 I thought was kind of a wash, you know had some puts and takes. I don't think it really did anything. I think he goes on to say QE3, what we did after that, you know the twist and QE-infinity whatever you want to call it, Ben Bernanke, the outgoing chair of the Federal Reserve, says I think these were counterproductive. Imagine that, right? Yeah, he says, I don't think it had a real-world impact. Certainly, it had the impact of inflating financial asset prices, but it wasn't accomplishing what we thought we could in the real economy. But then he goes on to say that, well in his words, fortunately, my view not so fortunately, he says they had a third toolkit, and this third toolkit was what they call, [what] the Federal Reserve calls, communication policy. It's expressed in this notion of forward guidance. And, it is, as Bernanke says, the intentional use of our words to try to change investor behavior — to use our words, not because we really believe the words but, because we think the words will have an impact, or an effect, in changing investor behavior — you know, what we might call lying in other circumstances. And, this is why we have a calendar, where we send out — every governor of the Fed goes out with its calendar of the interviews they're going to give and the talks they're going to make. It's all coordinated. It's all coordinated. This didn't exist before, but it is absolutely an intentional, and very effective way, at changing investor behavior. I'll tell you it's something that politicians have known forever. But now, everyone is in on the act. Everyone now uses their words and carefully constructs their messages, because they want to have an impact with their words alone. So, this [is] what you see from CEOs, whether it's Marc Benioff or Mark Zuckerberg right? This [is] what you see from central bankers, whether it's our own Fed leaders, whether it's Mario Draghi or whoever is running a central bank. Everyone knows now this [is] how it works — that you can use your words. And, there's a pattern for how the words are used. And, that's what we're trying to measure in the research company that I set up. How are these words used? How do they have an impact on us? Because, we're hardwired to respond to this stuff, and that's what I think has an impact, even more than what you correctly point out is, what I call, the mechanistic impact of buying stuff. AL: That's very interesting. I actually agree with you in the sense that they've just invented this new tool. It's related to the tools that existed before that, just translated through time. The forward guidance and the expectations actually become the policy, and then the follow through, or lack of follow through on that, becomes a backward revision. So, I agree with that. And, the markets are behaving the way they would if you did that with your children — if you promised a trip to Disneyland [and] then later you said you weren't going to do it. They would throw a tantrum. BH: Children and markets are very effective, and they're very effective at learning how to turn your words against you. AL: That's exactly right. I actually don't come down hard on my kids when they try to do that to me, because that's preparation for the real world — to manipulate situations like that. So, that's very interesting, and the way you write, because I have sort of dipped my foot in Epsilon Theory, I can see why it's so popular because it's very well written, it's very clever and, if you read carefully, it's a tad bit rebellious, which we love. You talk a lot about, at least on the interview with Grant Williams, you talked a lot about your farm and the animals. I really enjoyed that. I have a friend who is in a similar situation as you — has a career in engineering but has a farm which doesn't produce a lot, but is a legitimate, authentic working farm. He also has these analogies and I want to ask you if the links that you see — between the farm, ecosystems, animals, biology and markets — are you just seeing them because that's what you're immersed in? I mean, you know, human beings are programmed to recognize faces, we’re just sort of evolved and hardwired to recognize faces, so we see faces in the clouds, in food, in the dirt, the beach and the ocean. Have you become soft-wired to see analogies and connections to farms in markets? BH: Well it's the word you used just a second ago Albert. Used that word “authentic.” What I love about my dilettante farm, our animals are pets. I mean I like animals that pay the rent, like the bees, like the chickens. But our sheep, we shear them and we use the wool, but they're basically pets. This not a working farm. This, for me personally, is trying to get back to a world, of your word, authenticity, because there is a realness to the real world that is so distant. And, I think it's such a healthy corrective to the world of artifice that we live in today — playing the game of markets. I think that distance, that gulf, between the world of artifice — the world of words and stories and narratives — and the real world of fundamentals has grown so dramatically over the last decade, again, intentionally so, in every aspect of markets. So, for me, not just a respite, but the reconnecting with a world of cycles — the seasons, a world of Earth, a world of real life where, yes, you must eat, you must drink, [provide] fresh water for the animals. You can't tell them a story, right? No, they'll die. It is that authenticity, of even a dilettante playing at being a farmer, that I find is just enormously, intrinsically rewarding. So, you ask about the stories? My effort is to try to communicate to a broader audience these stories of the real, to bring into sharp contrast the stories of artifice — this world of artifice that I think we live in more and more in our market existence, our existence as investors. So yes, I intentionally look for, and identify, patterns in nature that I can then write at to draw contrast with our world and markets. I do that intentionally because I do find that these stories of the real of the farm and of animals are so powerful and evocative to people, like you and me who otherwise spend all their time in markets. I think we all know that something is wrong, right? I'll use this phrase or this great line from one of these spaghetti westerns of Clint Eastwood, Outlaw Josey Wales, where, pardon my language here, where his character says, “Don’t piss down my back and tell me it's raining." I feel like we live in that world, that world of people telling us stories in our market existence. And, that's why I find it so powerful to bring forward stories of the real — of animal behavior, of farm behavior — and it immediately throws our market world into such sharp contrast. It immediately gives a point of purchase for someone to read the article [and] say: What? This market world is not real. It is what I like to call fiat world, where opinions are presented as fact, where we're told the way the world works in sharp contrast to what we see with our own eyes. So, yes, Albert it's all that. I do intentionally look for these connections precisely because I find them so powerful in bringing into sharp relief this world of artifice that we're immersed in, and markets. AL: Ben, I want to try out an analogy of my own on you, and then we'll move on to some, maybe, practical discussions on the markets. When you're going through your farm, you say you talk about how each of the animals sort of pull their weight in a sense — they produce. My friend who has the farm is very proud of that fact as well. Everyone has a role, and if you don't, if you don't have a role, then you better watch out because an axe may be coming. You talk about the chickens, the sheep and so on and so forth. They all pay their way. They produce eggs, wool. In a sense they're producing earnings and dividends. And, when you talk about the suspension of reality that happens in the public markets, but it really happens in the private markets, when you talk about WeWork and Theranos and companies like that, these, to use the phrasing that you used on the farm, these are pet stocks. They're not working stocks, they're pets. And, your daughters may have had some role in classifying so many of those animals as pets. Why are we tolerant of that in investment markets? Why are we willing to put up with so many pet stocks? BH: You know, it's always the byproduct, Albert, of the hothouse environment that one lives in. At the end of a nine-year bull run, you are looking for stories, for entertainment, because your survival is not at stake. I mean, we've got a couple of goats on the farm all right. Goats do nothing. They are a pleasure. They're a joy. Goats are fun. They are, they're dancing around. I like to think of it like mobile art. They're a luxury. They're a luxury, right? And so, I love my goats. I can't imagine not having the goats, but they're absolute luxury. And this, what always happens in markets at, again, the end of a long bull market is that we find our pleasure, we find our art, in these crazy stories like WeWork. It's how humans are wired. Then again, you expect this. This is what I try to write about, and what’s really driven me, in all my, kind of, figuring out games and puzzles — whether it was in academia or software or markets. It's how we, as a human animal — forget about the farm animals let's talk about the human animal — how the human animal is hardwired, and, as you say, softwired, to respond to stories, whether it's the story of the gamboling goat or whether it's the story of WeWork. These are the stories that, I think, if we continue to bring them to our own attention — you know we're not immune to the any of this stuff, not all of us — we can be more resistant to that — by remembering these stories and remembering that what we think is only natural is, frankly, a creation by somebody who understands how we are wired as a human animal. AL: Ben, I don't know if it was the panel that we did together in 2018, but I distinctly remember asking for predictions as to when the bull market would end, and possibly end in a recession or a depression. And, before I received the responses, I joked that everyone always says two or three years away. And, sure enough, the answers were all two or three years away. I had the same folks on the same panel this year, and I was thinking, well I mean it's got to be one or two now, right? I mean, it's a year later. It's the same guys. And I thought, one? I count myself in that group as well. I've been concerned about this for a long time. I thought the hallmark would be something like WeWork getting shut out of public markets, and those valuations coming down. The closer you get to the end, the more ridiculous the story is that we're being asked to buy into. That was truly a ridiculous story, and it was shot down. Do you agree with me? I mean, is this sort of the first sign that this, at least this chapter of the story, is over? BH: So George Soros, you know whatever you think of George Soros, he's a great investor, right? And, he has this wonderful line. Somebody was asking him about, I don't think this was about when he and [Stanley] Druckenmiller were making one of their fortunes on shorting the pound, I think another currency. But somebody asked him to talk about what he was doing. And so, he started explaining what was going on and how he’s positioned. And, somebody (the reporter) said, “Why are you predicting that? Why do you think that's going to happen?” I’d duplicate the accent if I could, but I can't do my old Hungarian accent very well. Soros said, "Young man, you know I'm not predicting — I'm observing." I'm not predicting I'm observing. And, that's really stuck with me a lot. And, the way it's stuck with me is that, I think, when you think of things in terms of a game, and here I’m using game theory in that rigorous sense, it does not lend itself to a prediction. That's why I always hate this kind of exercise we feel like we're forced to go through: to predict something. What I can do, though, because I am focused on observing changes, and directions, the narrative, you know — I might want to try to pretend to predict when does this break, but what I can, I think, tell you is what we have to observe before it can break, before the story breaks. What I mean by the story breaking is basically an Emperor's New Clothes moment, which you're right we kind of did with WeWork, right? It was like: Wait, community adjusted EBITDA? What? Wait, you paid the guy ninety million dollars to get the name “We”? It was an Emperor's New Clothes moment. That is absolutely a hallmark of the story breaking. But, that WeWork story broke, but that was the company looking to go public. You didn't have public investors, and WeWork, who suffered the brunt. The brunt, was shouldered mostly by Masayoshi Son. You see, Son and SoftBank, you know I'm not going to cry for them and they're not, I think, suffering from this, right? The lessons of that, I don't think, are really realized in the form of SoftBank. They're going to keep on doing this, you know, forever. What we have to see is those sorts of Emperor’s New Clothes moments, not on a single company that's looking to go public like WeWork, we have to see that same sort of breaking of a story around one of our big institutions, like the Fed, like the ECB, like we saw in 2008 when the story broke about Wall Street banks. By the story breaking, I don't mean about being revealed. I mean about the confidence, the narrative that these guys were large and in charge, that story broke. It fell to pieces. We've got to see the same thing happen. It's kind of [an] Emperor's New Clothes moment, with a little girl and the crowd says: Hey wait, WeWork, that doesn't make any sense. But instead, it has to be that statement: Hey wait, Jerome [Powell], that doesn't make any sense what you're talking about, what the Fed is doing. That's when it changes, right? I can't predict when that's going to change, but that's what, when you observe that, that is when it will change. AL: That would be a serious development, though, right? Ben, you started this discussion by saying that you supported the Fed’s intervention with QE1. If the story would change and it were to be revealed that the Fed had no clothes, that they're no longer sufficient [as the] lender of last resort. That can't be something that you would want to see, is it? BH: Look, I very much believe that what the Fed did in March of 2009 was exactly what you want a central bank to do, because we really were on the verge of the entire system breaking down. What I think has developed in the decade since then is not a risk of the system breaking down again. Instead, I think it's the risk of the system overtaking — you know, use Star Trek, becoming the Borg and enveloping everything — so that there is no more market, so that capital markets have been transformed into a political utility. That's as much of a tragedy as the markets collapsing. I'd like to think there is something in between those two extremes. I'd like to think that we can have a functioning, break glass in case of emergency, central bank that, when that emergency occurs, as it did when Lehman was taken out in the street and shot, when the entire global financial system is on the verge of being ruined, you break that glass in case of emergency and you take those emergency actions. But I don't think that our choice has to be defined in either, well you've either got that or you've got this Borg-like central bank and Wall Street edifice that eliminates price discovery, eliminates the role of fundamentals and, again, transforms markets into this political utility. I think we can find something in the middle. And that's what I'm hoping for and, what I'm suggesting is happening, when you have that Emperor's New Clothes moment with what central banks are doing today. And, I think I know what that story might be. AL: I could argue that the banks were turned into utilities the minute Paulson said to Bank of America, you got to buy these guys, and Bernanke said to these other guys, you can't pay dividends unless we stress test you. I mean that essentially took the market forces out of banking. And, if we’re to go back [to a market system] you would have to concede that some of them would fail and other ones prosper and pay dividends and have rising stock prices. Correct? BH: I'm with you a thousand percent. What I'm saying, though, is this has been a process, right? It's a process that, look, I get it, if the choice is between Wall Street doesn't exist anymore and we're going to have this intervention, okay, I can get that trade off. What I can't get, again, is transforming emergency action into permanent government policy. And, that's what we've had. So, I’m hopeful enough to think that we can at least not exist at either extreme, because I do think that we have absolutely evolved into this extreme, where again Borg like you know, there is no more price discovery. There is no more role for fundamentals. It's all story. It's all story. And, I think that can be diminished, undermined. I hope, I think, I want to believe, right, without going back to collapse of asset prices and the end of the system as we know it. I think the longer we go on like this, the longer we go on without an Emperor's New Clothes moment, then the more painful the fall from these heights will be. Okay, none of this is going to happen organically, or on its own right. We saw that in December of 2018, or Q4 of 2018, where, oh my god, where we're raising interest rates to, checks notes, 2.5 percent. Oh my god, the world can't handle that. And so, we saw Powell and the rest totally turn on a dime and cave in to what are political pressures. And, you know, we saw what happened this past year, in 2019. So, it's not going to come from inside. It's going to have to come from the outside. And, the way it's going to happen is in a breaking of the story. And, I think what breaks that story, I really do, I think it's inflation, because I think it's coming. I think it's coming because of another thing you mentioned, Albert — which is not just what central banks are doing, in terms of their asset prices and what was happening in terms of the government in terms of its control over fiscal policy — I think that inflation is coming into the real economy, not just in the financial world as we've seen with central banks buying, and I think inflation is coming. Frankly, I think is already here, and I think that's what breaks the story of central bank control. AL: I want to shift the discussion now to an article you wrote about Facebook and Bitcoin. You titled it, The Spanish Prisoner. I thought that was very interesting and I’m actually again, I'm on the same page with you on that. I'll take it one step further, but basically, you're saying that Libra was designed to co-opt Bitcoin. Libra is the cryptocurrency currently being promoted by Facebook. Can you just go over the thinking behind that? BH: Sure, absolutely. I'm a fan of the, I'll call it, the positive energy that comes from Bitcoin true believers and the crypto-community more generally. I share so much of the sentiment, so much of the animus that directs that community, which is to say, look [at] our current monetary policy, it's being used against us, not for us. So, I understand the interest in finding and developing this alternative to fiat currencies, and in the form of Bitcoin, or crypto, or the like. I think there are real issues with that because I don't think the government, any government, will ever willingly give up its ability to control money. I think that's why governments exist — to control money, taxes that come from that, the seigniorage that comes from the printing of money, the control of taxation. So, it's the political risk around cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin that leads me not to be a big participant. But I get it and I share, again, the energy and the sentiment that underlies so much of crypto and Bitcoin. What I think Bitcoin, the real power of it, and much of crypto, is, if [it's] not censorship proof, it is censorship resistant. That's a phrase you hear a lot of times when you talk about Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies. What that means is that, because it has this underlying distributed ledger technology, Bitcoin being one of those powerful and elegant distributed ledger technologies, the record, the history of that Bitcoin, or that coin that is censorship resistant, [is] you can't, easily at least, a government can't, come in and control it. It's censorship resistant, if not censorship proof. What I thought we would see — I think Libra is just the first of these attempts to co-opt censorship resistant coins like Bitcoin. I think Libra is intentionally set up to be a censorship-embracing coin. The idea behind Libra is not that it is somehow in opposition to a government or separate from a governmental sphere of control and censorship. No, Libra embraces the idea that it is compliant with the government. So look, maybe it won't be Libra. Facebook's got its own public relations issues, but beyond Libra there will be others, other coins, other cryptocurrencies, that are promoted specifically by corporations, not in a resistant way to the government, but in a [collaborative], cooperative way. That's what I mean about how, in my view, Libra and these censorship-embracing coins are trying to co-opt the idea of Bitcoin in crypto, but do[ing it] in a way that's non-threatening to government. Hence my point of view — [it] loses all of its appeal. AL: Exactly. It seems to strip Bitcoin of its most desirable features and saddles us with some of the worst features of the cryptocurrency. BH: Absolutely. It becomes, it becomes an electronic fiat currency, which is where governments want to go. They don't want cash money. They don't want paper money floating around to be in existence. The whole effort is to continue to exercise control. I'll call it soft control using their words or, if we can't have that, well let's have currency being represented just as digital zeros and ones. It's all part and parcel, I think, but the same impetus. And again, I get it, right? But, [that] doesn't mean that I have to go along with it. I find by talking about it, relating it in stories that connect with people and their real-world experiences, I find that's the most effective way for me at least to try to ring the bell and bring people's attention. AL: I appreciate your conclusion — that is, that real, authentic, Bitcoin sort of becomes analogous to gold. It becomes gold, basically, which is what people said it was going to do, at least [what] proponents said it was going to do. But gold hasn't solved our problems. As much as I like gold, and advocate gold, and hold gold, it hasn't solved the world's monetary problems because it's just not in high enough circulation. And, your conclusion is that Bitcoin is going to become one of these commodity currencies over time. Is that true? BH: Yes, and frankly I like Bitcoin as a trade, in the same way that I like gold as a trade. I have, I'll say, real concerns with making it a core investment because of the political risk that I associate with Bitcoin. But, Igiven my view that I think inflation in the real economy is coming, frankly, I think it's already here. Right? But I think that the narrative around inflation is going to grow. I think that's extremely threatening to the prevailing central bank narrative: that we've got your back, market. We got this under control. I think that once the genie of inflation is out of the bottle in the real economy, it's very difficult to put back under control. You really think the Fed is going to raise interest rates from here, when in Q4 of 2018 they tried to raise interest rates 2.5% and they were basically taken out in the street and shot? The Fed says, oh we have all these tools to control inflation. Give me a break. They do not. They do not. Politically, they cannot. So, as a trade, I like gold a lot here. I like, God help me, I like Bitcoin a lot here, but it is — particularly when it comes to the political risk associated — a place where governments have enormous control, just enormous control. So, that political risk keeps me from having it as, I'll call it, a core, lifetime holding. But, it's absolutely something that I think is very attractive right here as a trade. AL: I understand almost everything you said there. I definitely understand Bitcoin as a trade. I understand gold as a trade in some circumstances. But, why not gold as a store of wealth? That’s sort of its traditional use. BH: Yeah, and I think gold can have use as a store of wealth. I think, I want to talk for me personally again, my store of wealth is in the land, in the farm. I find it, for me personally, that's where I want to try to store my wealth. I have a very broad conception of what real assets mean. Real assets can include intellectual property. I prefer real assets to have some sort of cash flows associated with them. I like that, but I'm not opposed, or I don't disagree, with any of these conceptions of real assets. What I am opposed to, to the degree that I cannot be immersed in it, is that world of artifice, that world of narratives and story. So, what I'm increasing, what I want in my investments, I'm just speaking for me, is I want to be closer to the real. In public markets, what does that mean? It means getting closer to real companies that still offer real fractional ownership share in real cash flows — harder to find in public markets today. That's the same thing I want in private markets. That's the same thing I want in my own life. So, I look for that notion of storing value and real assets. For me, it's tied up more with land. It's tied up more with knowledge — intellectual property. But I get it. I'm not opposed to [gold]. It's just, for me, that's how I like to express. AL: I’ve got two follow-up questions. Unfortunately, we have to get going because you're running out of time. One of your conclusions was that Bitcoin was going to become more like gold. And, one of the things that involves is, sort of, the stigma associated with gold, or the stigma we attach [to] the type of person that would invest in gold. That's the type of person that's going to invest in Bitcoin. Is the stigma part of the reason that you don't see gold the same way as you see other assets or is there some political risk associated with gold that you don't see associated with other assets? Why do you put gold in a different category? BH: Well I think gold has this, you call it, stigma. I would describe it as the intentional narrative that is created by government to stigmatize gold. And you saw the same thing around Bitcoin. When Bitcoin started to grow in popularity — oh Bitcoin, that's used by terrorists; you must be for the terrorists if you're engaged with Bitcoin. We all saw this stuff. And so, what I'm trying to do is, again trying to, observe rather than try to predict. What I'm observing is the government has a powerful vested interest in trying to control the adoption of gold as an alternative store of value, as an alternative currency, as a cryptocurrency. And, they certainly have an incentive to try to control digital cryptocurrency, like a bitcoin. I think of it as a trade in that, look their efforts to control that are limited, right? I think that, having seen with our own eyes its value in an inflationary environment, yeah, I think I'd like to own some right now, again as a trade, but for me to devote my wealth, my family's wealth, my children's well-being to something that I think is always going to be under this sort of assault — I'd rather find other ways I think are less risky of the government, through soft methods or hard methods, coming after me or that store of wealth. That's where I come out on this. AL: This all makes sense. I would expect to hear a former professor with a family, at a certain point in life, talking very conservatively like this. But you also ran a hedge fund, so there is a speculator in you. I want to close the interview just by asking you about some of the ideas you have for the next year on where people might look for returns. You talk about safer, cash-flowing types of assets. You know Netflix was the stock of the decade in the public markets. And, we know what it does with cash — it just burns it. But the return was phenomenal. So, if not those types of companies, where would you look for out-sized returns in 2020? BH: So look, I've been levered long personally because when the rules change it's going to be a political utility. That’s what you want to be, so we've had this past ten years. For me, personally, it’s levered long and to go with this flow. So, what I'm talking about in terms of narratives and the story breaking, it’s not because I want to fight the Fed, it's because I don't. I want to be able to observe and react to how the world is changing. I think we're on the cusp of a change from a 40-year deflationary cycle into the beginning of an inflationary cycle and everyone's investment playbook from the 1970s needs to be dusted off. Most people don't have that playbook. I wasn't a professional investor in the 1970s, but I can read and I could try to understand what works. That's what I think. That's the playbook I think we need to dust [it] off. I will say this: When you're talking about an inflationary environment, the worst place to be is in fixed income. We got to get that right. What you're looking for are companies that have pricing power. It's like they say, in fast food what are the three most important things? Location. In an inflationary environment, the three most important things are pricing power, pricing power, pricing power. I think that fundamentals will matter again in an inflationary environment because I don't think that the Federal Reserve has the tools really to combat that genie once that gets out of the bottle. And so, in the way that fundamentals matter again for looking at individual companies, you need to look at pricing power. Your multiples are going to suffer as interest rates go up. That's just a mechanistic issue — that high multiples mean that you're pulling forward growth from the future and into today. So, I think that high-flying profitless, cash burning unicorns are under a lot of threat and a lot of pressure in an inflationary environment. I think that the companies that [possess pricing power], whether they're commodity focused, or their story has some sort of percent perceived pricing power alongside it, I think that's where you want to be. I say I'm not predicting but I am observing. I think that's going to be the story of 2020. This inflation in the real world — which we've been told ad nauseam over the last decade, “oh there is no inflation, there's no inflation." That isn’t true. There absolutely is. And, once we get the spending, that's going to come out of whoever is elected in 2020, well that's when I think that inflation genie gets out of the bottle of the real economy. And, that's what I think changes everything in terms of the story for the game of markets. AL: You didn't say this, Ben, but it sounds like a good argument for gold, silver, commodity currencies and non-US dollar denominated assets. BH: It is actually, absolutely with the exception of the non-USD currencies, because what we're talking about here, this not just a US phenomenon — it's a global phenomenon. I think, in terms of currencies, the US is always going to be that best house in a bad neighborhood. So, I don't have a prediction on where the dollar goes, up or down, because I think that's the hardest thing to predict. What I can predict is that, in a global inflationary environment, everything you mentioned in terms of that traditional playbook, I think it's going to be a playbook worth holding on to in 2020 and beyond. AL: So, you are at EpsilonTheory.com and on Twitter @EpsilonTheory BH: The website, Twitter is free to read. We publish a lot and I appreciate you introducing me to your audience. AL: Thank you very much, Ben. Definitely go to his website and check out that Real Vision interview. It was very enjoyable. Ben, I’ve kept you on long, so thank you very much for joining us and I hope we can do it again sometime soon. BH: Be my pleasure. Thanks again.
Remember just a few months ago when repo rates went from 1 percent to 10 percent overnight. The Fed assured us that it was because of quarterly tax payments, or who knows may it was a YouTube video that caused the meltdown. Well, we speculated from the get go that it was one or more major banks going bust. We were close to the truth, at least according to the BIS (Bank for International Settlements) it was hedge funds hocking their treasuries to stay liquid. But the main funding big banks pulled the plug. Seems they were rattled by the sudden surge in demand and were trying to reign in their risk. But we're convinced this is only part of the story and the net result is still the same, QE3.5 or better is with us forever.
Remember just a few months ago when repo rates went from 1 percent to 10 percent overnight. The Fed assured us that it was because of quarterly tax payments, or who knows may it was a YouTube video that caused the meltdown. Well, we speculated from the get go that it was one or more major banks going bust. We were close to the truth, at least according to the BIS (Bank for International Settlements) it was hedge funds hocking their treasuries to stay liquid. But the main funding big banks pulled the plug. Seems they were rattled by the sudden surge in demand and were trying to reign in their risk. But we're convinced this is only part of the story and the net result is still the same, QE3.5 or better is with us forever.
Bill Nelson is a chief economist at the Bank Policy Institute and was previously a deputy director of the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board, where his responsibilities included monetary policy analysis, discount window policy analysis, and financial institution supervision. Bill has written widely on the Fed’s operating system, and he joins the show today to talk about it, as well as the recent turmoil in money markets. David and Bill also discuss the possibility of the Fed moving back to a corridor system, the stigma surrounding banks using the discount window, and the story of recent supply and demand dislocation in repo markets. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/10072019/bill-nelson-repo-market-stress-feds-operating-system-and-prospects-standing Related Links: Link to supply and demand curves mentioned in the episode: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/2019/09/the-repo-man-cometh.html *Two Little-Noticed and Self-Inflicted Causes of the Fed’s Current Monetary Policy Implementation Predicament* by Bill Nelson https://bpi.com/two-little-noticed-and-self-inflicted-causes-of-the-feds-current-monetary-policy-implementation-predicament/ *Fed at a Crossroads* by Bill Nelson https://bpi.com/fed-at-a-crossroad/ *Bank Regulations and Turmoil in Repo Markets* by Francisco Covas & Bill Nelson https://bpi.com/bank-regulations-and-turmoil-in-repo-markets/ *What Just Happened in Money Markets, and Why it Matters* by Bill Nelson https://bpi.com/what-just-happened-in-money-markets-and-why-it-matters/ *Impending Money Market Volatility Prompts Warning Light for LCR Tune-Up* by Bill Nelson & Brett Waxman https://bpi.com/impending-money-market-volatility-prompts-warning-light-for-lcr-tune-up/ *Design Challenges for a Standing Repo Facility* by Bill Nelson https://bpi.com/design-challenges-for-a-standing-repo-facility/ *A Former Fed Insider Explains the Internal Debate over QE3* by Bill Nelson https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/02/16/2198845/guest-post-a-former-fed-insider-explains-the-internal-debate-over-qe3/ *Get Up Off The Floor* By Bill Nelson https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/cochranepalermotaylor_currencies_ch9.pdf *FOMC Go Home* by Bill Nelson https://bpi.com/fomc-go-home/ *Understanding the Fed’s Implementation Framework Debate* by Bill Nelson https://bpi.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Understanding_the_Fed’s_implementation_framework_debate_Review05.pdf David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
It’s a big Queer Eye season finale tonight, so bring on the tears with hosts Charles Conoly (@charlesconoly), Christine Alexis (@christineialexis), Brendan Haley (@brendanhaley) and Anna-Kay Thomas (@annakaythomas). Buckle up for the Fab Five’s last make over of the season, and revlive the best QE3 moments! #QueerEye #AfterBuzzTV #Buzzyalater About The QUEER EYE AFTER SHOW: Let the make-over begin! On the QUEER EYE AFTER SHOW we discuss some of the best makeovers created by Netflix’s fab five, specializing in culture, food, grooming, fashion and interior design. Subscribe to the show for reviews, recaps and in-depth discussions of the latest episodes, as well as the insider scoop from cast and crew members from the show. ABOUT QUEER EYE: More than a decade after the original series went off the air, Netflix reboots the "Queer Eye" franchise with a new Fab Five and a new setting, trading in the concrete jungle of New York City for communities in and around Atlanta. The style experts forge relationships with men and women who often have different beliefs from them, leading to moments of social commentary interspersed with style advice. Advising people in need of lifestyle makeovers are food and wine specialist Antoni Porowski, interior designer Bobby Berk, grooming consultant Jonathan Van Ness, fashion designer Tan France and culture expert Karamo Brown, who reality TV fans may recognize as one of the housemates on "The Real World: Philadelphia." David Collins, who created the original show, is on board as an executive producer. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app
It’s a big Queer Eye season finale tonight, so bring on the tears with hosts Charles Conoly (@charlesconoly), Christine Alexis (@christineialexis), Brendan Haley (@brendanhaley) and Anna-Kay Thomas (@annakaythomas). Buckle up for the Fab Five’s last make over of the season, and revlive the best QE3 moments! #QueerEye #AfterBuzzTV #Buzzyalater About The QUEER EYE AFTER SHOW: Let the make-over begin! On the QUEER EYE AFTER SHOW we discuss some of the best makeovers created by Netflix’s fab five, specializing in culture, food, grooming, fashion and interior design. Subscribe to the show for reviews, recaps and in-depth discussions of the latest episodes, as well as the insider scoop from cast and crew members from the show. ABOUT QUEER EYE: More than a decade after the original series went off the air, Netflix reboots the "Queer Eye" franchise with a new Fab Five and a new setting, trading in the concrete jungle of New York City for communities in and around Atlanta. The style experts forge relationships with men and women who often have different beliefs from them, leading to moments of social commentary interspersed with style advice. Advising people in need of lifestyle makeovers are food and wine specialist Antoni Porowski, interior designer Bobby Berk, grooming consultant Jonathan Van Ness, fashion designer Tan France and culture expert Karamo Brown, who reality TV fans may recognize as one of the housemates on "The Real World: Philadelphia." David Collins, who created the original show, is on board as an executive producer. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app
Former Fannie Mae risk-assessor Ed Dodson (http://cooperative-individualism.org/) joins to discuss the transformations in finance he witnessed over 35 years. We progress to the unwinding of QE3 and the predicament monetarists face. Show notes - http://www.earthsharing.org.au/2017/09/an-economic-thriller/
Earlier this morning we got the first look at Q4 GDP As I suggested on the last podcast, in fact as I have been saying all along We did see a sharp decline from the Q3 3.5% GDP The consensus was for a 2.2% estimate for growth in Q4 And we came in at 1.9% Quite a way below estimates and psychologically below the 2% number Part of the reason was a big drop in exports I talked about this last quarter One of the reasons we got that 3.5% jump in Q3 GDP Was the big surge in soybean exports, because of a drought overseas Which created a temporary increase for U.S. beans The rest of it was an inventory build, which I still think needs to be worked off In fact, I think we're going to work off a lot of it in the first quarter of this year That's the first estimate, and, who knows, they may downward revise it the next time they give us the numbers If you now take the first 3 quarters of GDP growth, and use the first estimate for Q4 For the entire year of 2016 GDP grew at just 1.6% That is the lowest number since 2009, tied with 2011, at 1.6% also If you remember 2011 GDP growth was so weak that they launched QE3 for 2012 So they ended QE2, the economy started rolling over And when they got that 1.6% GDP for the entire year The Fed very quickly came out and launched QE3 the following year to goose the GDP back up What are they doing now? Not only is the Fed not preparing to launch another round of QE They are tightening monetary policy They're saying, "We're going to raise interest rates 3 times, even though GDP is as low as it has been for the entire "recovery' Even though the economy is decelerating, we are going to sedate it with rate hikes
Gold and silver prices continue to march higher Gold was up another $7 today; it closed at $1363.20 - that is the high for the year Silver was up .15 at $20.06 Silver is now going up relative to the price of gold which is very for the precious metals complex Gold stocks are on fire; the XAU index, a gold stock index was up 3.27% today It's now up better than 135% on the year and well over 150% from the lows on the third week in January But do you think that any major players on Wall Street have recommended gold stocks? Do any of the big hedge funds have positions in gold? No! They are clueless What is happening, as I have said before, is that there is a picture, that's kind of blurry, but it's coming into focus, still not clear, but it's a game changer The perception is that we had this great recovery and that the Fed was going to be able to unwind its balance sheet, normalize interest rates and everything was going to be great So the whole investment world was preparing for higher rates, a stronger dollar and a stronger U.S. economy But what is the actual picture? The actual picture is an economic recovery that is over, if it ever even happened, The Fed is finished tightening and they're about to start a new easing campaign We're not done with QE; we're just getting started - QE3 is closer to the beginning than the end Rather than shrinking the balance sheet, it's about to explode This picture is getting clearer and now you see the markets re-pricing Gold is going up every day Gold stocks are going up The banks are getting crushed The European banks hit new lows again today FOMC minutes came out for June and what did the minutes reveal? The members were concerned about weakening employment number and they wanted more data before raising rates They wanted to make sure the weakening numbers were an aberration rather than a new trend Who didn't see that coming? Also they wanted to see what happened with the Brexit vote We knew about the Brexit vote all year - why did the Fed ever pretend that they would raise rates in June? Because they wanted the market to believe that a rate hike was possible because it validates the phony recovery So now the instead of raising rates, they spoke about raising them and they are going to cut rates by just talking about reducing them They can do a lot by adjusting their rhetoric before they actually cut rates They are already cutting by backtracking their rhetoric, because that's all they've got Teddy Roosevelt said, "Walk softly but carry a big stick." The Fed has to speak loudly because it has no stick
I'm on vacation this week but I did take a little time out to little time out to listen to Janet Yellen's semi-annual "Humphrey-Hawkins" testimony - she testified first before the Senate, that was yesterday and today she was before the house It used to be a lot more interesting with Ron Paul was on the house banking committee and you could see Ron Paul asking questions to Ben Bernanke I really would like to hear Rand Paul questioning Janet Yellen but unfortunately, we don't have that opportunity Also, the big news, we are on the eve of the Brexit vote in the U.K.; it's going to be on Thursday Polls of investor sentiment show the remain camp is firmly in the lead Betting certainly shows that more money is on the remain, but more people are betting on leave Probably, though the remain camp will carry the day; the forces of big government are very hard to overcome Nowhere is big government better exemplified than in the case of the Federal Reserve, which is the combination of big government and central banking Janet Yellen's testimony, I thought, was relatively boring, but I'm going to go over some of the more important tidbits Yellen keeps referring to the recovery that appears to be on track and the rate hike is just around the corner All this is nonsense - if the Fed were going to raise rates, they would have already done so One senator or congressman asked Yellen about the box the Fed might be in because the rates are still so low, what tools does Yellen have to fight off the next recession Yellen confidently replied that we have all the tools we've always had, which is true They still have those tools; the problem is that these tools have never worked They can't cut rates, much, they can print all the money they want, they can do QE4, it can be bigger than QE3, and it probably will be Even though Janet Yellen, in response to a direct question about negative interest rates, said that she didn't think the Fed would go there, well we'll see When push comes to shove they may be more willing to go there than they are right now because they still want to pretend that the recovery is on track, so why even bring up negative rates when you're talking about raising rates So I think once the conversation turns then negative rates may be a more serious consideration One of the congressmen asked about Puerto Rico and Janet Yellen said, "No, there's nothing we can do, Puerto Rico is on it's own." I wish the Fed would have had the same attitude about the mortgage market The Federal Reserve has no problem buying up toxic mortgages but they wouldn't touch Puerto Rican sovereign debt with ta 10-foot pole Which leads you to believe how risky that debt much be I wish the Fed would do the same thing to the U.S. government - force the U.S. government to make those tough choices In fact, there was a House member, today, who talked to Janet Yellen about the independent central banks and Janet Yellen bluffed, that if interest rates, and that was a problem for Congress, that Congress would have to deal with the problem I don't believe her for a second I believe on of the reasons, specifically that Janet Yellen doesn't want to raise rates is that she knows that will complicate the budget situation in Washington because the Federal Government can't afford to pay higher interest rates If the Federal Reserve already bailed out the government by doing QE and buying all these bonds, why are they going to change course? I don't believe for a second Janet Yellen's tough talk about how independent the Federal Reserve is and how if the situation warranted it, they would raise interest rates and Congress would have to deal with the consequences There's no way the Fed is going to do that; she may have fooled some of the people on that sub-committee, but she didn't fool me Of course, she always gets these questions about jobs, and how are you going to create jobs,
Well the Dow Jones got clobbered again today, down 252 points at the close The NASDAQ down about 55 The transports continue to get clobbered down another 146 points, decisively in bear market territory CNBC blamed the entire decline on jitters over North Korea's hydrogen bomb test I admit that this prospect is not good, but I don't believe that announcement was the reason for the decline The real problem is the Fed removing the monetary herion from the addicts on Wall Street and this is the withdrawal Former President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, spoke on CNBC yesterday and he admitted that the Fed "engineered a stock market rally" They wanted all this phony wealth to cause us to make irrational decisions That's what happened during the dot com bubble and to a greater extent during the housing bubble Here you have it from the words of a former Fed president, a voting member who voted for QE 1 & 2 who is saying that the Fed did this to create a "wealth effect" He even said, don't be surprised if the market goes down 20% - it's still overvalued - he admits the Fed was propping it up Obviously if the Fed removes the props the market will go down After Simon Hobbs asked Fisher if he is going to apologize, he said," Don't blame me, I voted against QE3!" He is throwing his colleagues, including Janet Yellen, under the bus Now that he is no longer at the Fed, he refers to it as a "giant weapon that is out of ammunition" The Fed still has ammo: cut rates (in this case, even to negative) and QE4, their big bazooka There's plenty of ammo left and it will be fired a lot sooner than people think Korea is an excuse, but Richard Fisher is letting the cat out of the bag, but no one in the media is picking up on this Also in the markets today, while stocks were going down, gold was going up - gold hit a 2-month high today As fast as it is going up in dollars, it is going up even faster in other currencies, like the Canadian dollar, which hit a 9-year low, the Australian dollar The yen was up - the dollar/yen is breaking down - to me that is a very scary proposition for the markets to see this strength in the Japanese yen Oil prices continued to drop, down another $2 today - we're trading below $34 Gold stocks were up - you'd think they would be up a lot more because mining costs are plunging and revenue is going up, but Wall Street is oblivious to the bargains that exist in the mining stocks We got a lot of economic news today and most of it was, as is typically the case, bad Yesterday vehicle sales were at a 6-month low Last year was a record for auto sales, but December was a 6-month low despite all the Christmas giveaways Meanwhile the inventory to sales ratio continues to rise - a new high since the 2008-2009 great recession Also GM got clobbered today, down about 4% - already down 9% for the year and down more than 20% from its 52-wk high - that is a bear market This is telling me that the auto bubble has popped There are going to be a lot of layoffs in the auto sector - good, high-paying jobs I have said that starting in January 2016 we would start to see layoffs because the numbers have been horrible Sure enough, Macy's today announced a restructuring, laying off thousands of workers because of disappointing sales throughout the year We will see a huge blow-up in the securitized market for auto loans They layoffs are coming - the low unemployment number is the rear view mirror Looking at the actual economy in the windshield is a disaster for jobs This is deja vu - in 2008 the subprime market had already exploded - the housing market problems should have been obvious Yet everybody said, "don't worry, it's contained." and I said why can't anybody see that everything I have been warning about for years is happening People were still denying what I was saying even as the financial crisis had already begun
The price of gold was down another $15 today, a 6-year low Selling began early this morning following a better than expected jobs report from ADP This is private payrolls released a couple of days before the official government Non-Farm Payroll number, coming out on Friday Last month's ADP report was 182,000 jobs, which was below expectations But the government reported better than expected jobs numbers Today's number was not significant enough to have triggered a sell-off in gold within seconds of the release of the news So far, ADP has missed 8 of the 12 expectations this year By the way, hedge funds are the most short they've ever been in gold We'll see what happens between now and the end of the year if we get a lot of hedge funds that want to book those profits Paper profits may be difficult to realize if everyone needs to take them at the same time In the physical world, demand for gold continues to hit records 98-99% of the gold market is people selling gold they don't actually have to people who don't actually want it It's interesting to me the difference between the market reaction to positive economic news versus negative news The November PMI number, although slightly better than expected it is still a 2-year low Where the news went from bad to horrific was when we got the November ISM number. Manufacturing is considered insignificant now because it is a smaller part of our economy, but the last time it was almost as low as this, the Fed immediately launched QE3. Now with ISM number nearly as weak as it was when we launched QE1, the Fed is hinting at a rate hike, which is absurd if you believe that the Fed is data dependent. If the Fed does raise rates in December it proves conclusively that they were never data dependent and that they were using it as a delay tactic Had the Fed raised rates years ago, it would have pushed the economy into recession that much sooner, but they've now waited so long, that the economy is already going back into a recession on its own If the Fed now raises rates even slightly, we will go into recession that much more quickly, causing credibility loss. Also, yesterday we got motor vehicle sales numbers, and we did 18.2 million, beating the expected number of 18.1 million; however this is the second or third month in a row that domestic sales have declined This is all a product of the auto bubble. Contrary to comparisons to the housing bubble, where people bought homes for investments, the bubble exists in automobile financing Also contributing to the weakness in gold, were Janet Yellen's recent statements containing the strongest indications yet that interest rates may raise in December She did, however, go out of her way to insist that the Fed has not made a decision, based on data coming in prior to the December meeting Yellen admits to improvements in the labor market, but acknowledges that there is underemployment and low labor force participation She did say, however, that she is confident that over the next 1-2 years, the economy will show real improvement in full employment and labor force participation She also believes that the economy is indicating enough momentum that inflation will also reach or exceed the 2% benchmark Paradoxically, economic data over the last 6 months show no such momentum If the manufacturing sector is already in recession, as data indicates, what makes Yellen believe that the service sector, which has shown modest growth, can sustain any growth? The only problem Yellen does address is overseas markets Ironically the worst thing that can happen to the U.S. economy is for markets to have more confidence in overseas economies, which will cause the dollar to fall Another source of Yellen's optimism is her expectation that there will be more government hiring The last thing our economy needs is to support more government workers! The stock market sold off today; maybe the market is reacting t...
Self Directed Investor Talk: Alternative Asset Investing through Self-Directed IRA's & Solo 401k's
The CRUSH IS ON in the stock market. Yes, I’ll continue our analysis of the RISK of rental property investing… but with what’s happening in the stock market right now… well, America is crying out for leadership where the caving-in of the stock market is concerned, and I’m here to give it to you. I’m Bryan Ellis. This is episode #120.---------Hello, SDI Nation! Welcome to the podcast of record for savvy self-directed investors like you. Ever wonder why the topics I discuss so frequently find their way onto other financial shows? It’s simple: Self Directed Investor Radio is SHOW PREP for everyone else. We set the table… everyone else sits at it. And you, my friends, are welcomed guests!Back on August 5, I gave you a warning about the stock market. I focused on Apple computer, and suggested to you that as Apple goes, so goes the rest of the market. I told you the reason that I feared for Apple was because of the weakness of China’s economy, and the dependency Apple has on that market for future growth.On that day, I advised: Consider taking at least some of your profits out of Apple… and fast.And since that day? Well, it’s a big, fat, I told-you-so.Since then:Apple stock has dropped by 8.3%.The S&P 500 has dropped by over 6%.And, oh yeah… China devalued their currency in the wake of a crash in their stock market… confirming for all the world to see that the great economic power of the east is, at very best, on shaky ground after decades of misrepresenting the truth.And, oh, by the way, as of this moment – about 8am Eastern on Monday, August 24 – Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures were down by over 700 points at one point this morning. The Nasdaq is presently locked at what’s called “Limit Down”… meaning that traders are pushing the market lower, but the market circuit breakers are kicking in and forcing an artificial stop to the descent.Who knows what will actually happen. The whole thing could recover before the market opens. But I doubt it. There are some really negative indicators going on right now.Now, my friends, I want you to understand the gravity of what’s going on here.If you had $100,000 invested in Apple stock back on August 5 when I brought this up, you’ve now lost about $8,300 if you didn’t take action based on my analysis back then. Who’s to say that Apple won’t rally and achieve new all-time highs? Nobody, absolutely nobody. But here’s the thing: The chart doesn’t look good……Either for Apple, or for the broader market.Folks, there’s a time and place for everything. I respectfully submit to you that now is not the time, and this is not the place to be a retail stock investor.There are many companies out there that are very well run, and that represent fundamentally wise plays, if you’re analyzing the quality of those companies in a vacuum separate from the broader economy. But folks, you know that’s not wise.How do you feel about our economy? Do you feel like it’s really as strong as the media is telling you? I told you just a few days ago, in Episode 117, the hard evidence of how the government is very aggressively lying to all of us about the state of this economy. And as the insanely vicious and racially bigoted preacher Jeremiah Wright one said, “America’s chickens are coming home to roost!”My friends… in the middle of this chaos… in the middle of this concern… Things have been pretty boring around my house. Pleasantly so. We keep getting checks in the mail. It’s not sexy like the stock market. We know exactly what the amount of those checks will be every month. I mean… in one way – the profitability – it’s WAY sexier than the stock market. But it’s boring. Checks month after month. Month after month. Not volatile. Not exciting. Very boring.And PROFOUNDLY RELIABLE.My friends, listen up: This show is not for the faint of heart. If you want somebody to tell you some middle-of-the-road advice… if you want to hear ideas that are merely acceptable for everybody but truly great for nobody… this isn’t your show.But if you want the hard truth, people, here it is:The truth about the U.S. stock market has been manipulated so incredibly thoroughly, and it simply can’t go on. The media hasn’t even had to lie to you about the situation in stocks for several years, because it’s looked so positive. But it’s a LIE, my friends… and if we’re not on the precipice of the big reveal of that fact, we’re not far away.Folks, you’ve doubtlessly heard the phrase “Quantitative Easing”. You may have even heard it as QE1 or QE2 or QE3… because the government did it in 3 different distinct, massive rounds. I’ll not bother you with what they SAY quantitative easing was all about. But I will tell you what it actually was: It was a way for the federal reserve to print a HUGE amount of new money, dump it into the stock market in order to see the averages go higher, and thereby distract the entire country from the fact that the fundamentals of this economy are HORRIBLE.Folks… it’s been more than 40 years since our labor force participation was as awful as it is right now.The REAL unemployment rate – factoring in people who are working menial part time jobs or other obvious underemployment – is, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistic’s own admission – is over 10%... and much higher than that according to some very reputable sources, including the Gallup organization.My friends: The time for you to do as you’re told with your money is long since over.I’d like to remind you of something I said just a moment ago: In the midst of this financial chaos – and I fear that’s exactly what’s brewing, is real chaos – things have been pleasantly calm in the Ellis household. The stock market can fall apart, and, while it’s certainly not true that I don’t care about that, what I can say is… it doesn’t affect me. Those boring, consistent, predictable checks keep coming in… month after month… and the profits keep mounting.Folks, I’m not telling you it’s time to sell your portfolio. Though… who’s to say. What I am telling you is this: It’s time to consider a new CORE for your portfolio. An entirely new basis… something that’s strong, something based on real value, something that’s profitable, something you can predict and plan for.You need something that’s SIMPLE. You need something that’s SAFE. You need something that’s STRONG.It’s time for a return to SANITY.If you’re worried about what the current terror in the market will mean for your portfolio, let’s talk. You can set up an appointment by texting the word GUIDANCE to 33444 or visiting SDIRadio.com/guidance. Better yet, my friends, if you’d like to never, ever have to be worried again about what the terror in the market will mean for your portfolio, that’s an even better reason for us to talk, and to talk right away. It’s not too late. Again, you can set up an appointment by texting the word GUIDANCE to 33444 or visiting SDIRadio.com/guidance.My friends, remember that core value #1 of wise self-directed investors is this: We always RESPECT our own capital. Is it showing respect for your capital to leave it sitting in a market with a foundation as shaky as that of the U.S. stock market.Wouldn’t you like to have a firm foundation for your portfolio, folks? I love these words about building on a firm foundation: “The rain came down, the streams rose, and the winds blew and beat against that house, yet it did not fall, because it had its foundation on the rock.”Like I said, it’s entirely possible that the market will recover entirely today and it will turn out to be a “normal” day… at least as far as the history books are concerned. But what’s happening right now isn’t normal for a foundation built on solid rock.I’d love to help you build that foundation in your portfolio. My friends: Invest wisely today, and live well forever! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
Happy 4th of July to everyone Unfortunately, we have given up our independence to government tyranny I will be back on the radio again - I'll be on the Alex Jones Show every first and third Friday of every month when the Non-Farm Payroll numbers come out I will be doing tomorrow's show - the second hour of the show The Non-Farm Payroll Report came out early this week because of the 4th of July holiday The consensus forecast of 230,000 jobs was close to the actual number 223,000 The unemployment rate of 5.5% last month was expected to come in at 5$% - actually came in at 5.3%, the lowest unemployment rate in 7 years Great news, right? Not great news The devil is in the details The Labor Force Participation Rate - 62.9 last month - plunged down to 62.6% This is the lowest rate since 1977 432,000 people dropped out of the labor force in June - twice the number of people who got jobs in June Once again, these new jobs are low-paying service sector jobs During the Obama "recovery" we have lost 1.4 million manufacturing jobs and gained 1.4 million wait staff and bartender jobs According to the Household Survey 640,000 Americans left the labor force in June Now we have a record 93.6 million Americans no longer in the labor force The Household Survey reports 349,000 jobs were lost during the month The only net gain - 161,000 part time jobs - represent a net loss The Household Survey shows that we lost good jobs When asked about the Labor Force Participation Rate number, Secretary of Labor Perez commented, "One month does not a trend make." This trend has been going down every month of every year that President Obama has been in office Janet Yellen announced that the Fed would not start raising rates without "further improvement in the labor market" She specifically cited the Labor Force Participation Rate and proliferation of part-time jobs as troubling trends We are now further from that goal The demographic leaving the labor force are young people who cannot find jobs Average Hourly Earnings, to increase .2, actually came in flat, at zero Last month's .3 increase was revised down to .2, failing to beat the estimate Weekly Jobless Claims expected to come in at 270,000, actually came in at 281,000 and I think this number is going to go higher There have been fewer hires and fewer fires than expected because the estimates were based on the Birth/Death model, that is proving inaccurate Factory Orders are down for 9 of the last 10 months - this month we were looking for -.3% and we got -1% April was originally reported as -.4 but was revised down to -.7 Year over year Factory Orders are down 6.3% (adjusted) The only time we have seen numbers this weak is during a recession The economy is in worse shape now that when QE3 was launched Yet the markets did not react to these bad numbers They still cling to the narrative that the Fed is going to raise rates because the U.S. economy is in good shape Article on Motley Fool refers to me as someone who was "right for the wrong reason" The misquoted me on my prediction on (mortgage)interest rates going up After I made that statement, interest rates did go up for 2 years - they did not go down until after the bubble burst The Fed raised interest rates from 1% to 5-1/2 percent This quote was taken out of context - read my 2007 book, "Crash Proof" There are dozens of articles about the real estate bubble 2004-2007 The record shows that I was right for all the right reasons I did think the dollar would go down after the housing bubble burst, but by the time the bubble burst the dollar was at a record low The mainstream media would like to discredit my earlier predictions in order to discount my current predictions The higher interest rates I predicted have not happened yet because a dollar crisis will precede the rise in interest rates The fact that we have delayed the day of reckoning for so long means that...
Another week and another round of bad economic news Wall Street may be finally paying attention JOLT Report projected at 5.158 million; came in at 4.994 million April Retail Sales expected to rise .2%; came in flat X Automobiles expected an increase of .5, actual number was .1 Beneath the surface there was a collapse in retail sales in all areas except groceries Weakest year over year increase in retail sales since 2009 Department Store Sales experienced the biggest drop since January 2014 A look beneath the headlines of the jobs numbers reveals that the jobs are not good jobs The Birth/Death Model assumption added 175,000 jobs to the last jobs report These numbers came from a biased source The fact that there is no spending is evidence that the job market is not as robust as the numbers claim Jobs numbers can be made up but retail sales can't Wall Street is surprised that we have weak data because they believe we are experiencing job growth March Business Inventories up .1% versus expectation of .2% February Business Inventories was revised down from .3% to .2% I estimate that Q1 GDP will contract by greater than 1% The Atlanta Fed just revised down their Q2 GDP estimate to .7, which would indicate the U.S. economy contracted for the first half of the year The Fed is still looking for 3% rise in GDP for 2015, which would mean we would need growth of 6% for the last half of the year It is more likely that we will get a negative number again for Q2 Two consecutive contracting quarters will indicate an official recession If we are in a recession, the Fed will not raise rates and is more likely to respond with stimulus I predicted that a pause in QE3 would trigger another recession When the Fed is unable to raise rates to stimulate the economy, the only trick they will have up their sleeve will be QE4 When that happens, the moves we saw today in the FOREX and Precious Metals markets will look tame by comparison The dollar has already broken its uptrend Europe, with the exception of Greece is experiencing growth in GDP, and Great Britain is doing better than Europe, because they shrunk their government instead of applying stimulus What we are going to get next is old-fashioned Keynesian, pump-priming stimulus Will that give us economic growth? Not a chance. The last three rounds of QE didn't give us economic growth and neither will the next one It may blow more air into the stock market bubble, but the air is going to come out of the dollar bubble even faster Where is the Fed's balance sheet going to be at the end of QE4? It is 4.5 trillion right now. How can anyone possibly believe Janet Yellen when she says she is going to shrink the balance sheet? Are creditors are going to get wise and there is going to be a run on the dollar You can see the beginnings of it today The dollar was down across the board Gold was back to about $1,250; every time it gets to this level it gets knocked down by short-sellers, but eventually they are going to have to give up All this bad economic data is going to sink in It is not the weather The market still has to adjust for the reality that the economy is really weak The Fed will not admit that QE didn't work, so in the face of recession they will have to do it again
.embed-container { position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%; height: 0; overflow: hidden; max-width: 100%; height: auto; } .embed-container iframe, .embed-container object, .embed-container embed { position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; } There are many great Roseville area homes for sale. Click here to perform a full home search, or if you're thinking of selling your home, click here for a FREE Home Price Evaluation so you know what buyers will pay for your home in today's market. You may also call me at 916-788-8822 for a FREE home buying or selling consultation to answer any of your real estate questions.Today, our friend Marc Brinitzer from Big Valley Mortgage shares some lending tips with us. We asked him some questions to get a good idea of what's going on in the lending world. Here's what he shared with us:What are rates today and what can we expect in the future?If we're talking about conventional interest rates, they are hovering around 4.5%, give or take about .25%. However, a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage can be obtained for under 4%! Be aware that these rates are very sensitive to credit scores and down payments. FHA and VA loans, on the other hand, are around 4% and sometimes even lower.Are those rates as good as they were a few years ago?Almost. Last year, we saw interest rates rise when the Federal Reserve announced plans to stop the QE3 stimulus program. However, rates have slowly been coming back down, so they're slightly more favorable than they were after that initial increase.What are rates going to look like in 2015?What's going to happen next is an increase in short-term rates, but people are still waiting on the Fed to announce when that will be. The stimulus consisted of the Federal Reserve buying mortgage-backed securities and US treasuries in the secondary market. The plan was to stimulate the economy by flooding it with money. At some point, they will start to raise the short-term rates, which will then trigger a rise in long-term rates. Everyone is worried that will happen soon, but the Fed doesn't seem ready to let us know exactly when that will happen.When rates go up, how does that affect a buyer's monthly payments?When interest rates go up, monthly payments go up. People aren't always aware that lenders are qualifying people to buy at their absolute debt ratio. If rates go up from there, we don't have room to let the payment increase. In cases like that, we have to back the price down on the home. For example, for a $300,000 purchase with a 4% FHA rate, if rates go up .5%, the payment on that house will increase by $85 a month. If this happens, a buyer may no longer qualify for the loan they need to purchase the home they want. For that example, the buyer would only be eligible to purchase for $285,000.If you're waiting for home prices to decrease, but rates go up, are you doing yourself any good?Not really. If you decide not to buy a house today because you think it will be cheaper tomorrow, you may not be saving yourself any money if rates go up. In fact, you may end up spending more when home prices go down because the rise in rates have more than made up the difference. Our advice is, if you find the right home, buy it today while rates are low.It's nice to bring in an expert every once in awhile to give us a full picture of a sometimes confusing topic. If you would like more information on the lending side of real estate, you can reach Marc at (916) 761-3760 or MCBrinitzer@APMortgage.com. He would love to chat with you!As always, we're your best resource for real estate information in Roseville and the surrounding areas. We're always available to assist you, and would love to hear from you!
Ron Siegel of Anaheim Hills CA, Robert Mott of La Quinta CA and Joe Greenwald of Villa Park CA discuss current events, financial markets, politics, and even poking fun at the rest of the media in a live radio broadcast from Anaheim CA. Ron, Robert and Joe will discuss: How full should we fill a wine glass; What is Minerality in Wines;Top 10 US States for Chinese Investments; Five Costly Homeowner's Insurance Mistakes; QE3 and the Markets; Measure K for School Facilities; Mortgage Minute; Your Credit Matters; Real Time Real Estate; Word on Wealth; and so much more. Ron Siegel, consumer advocate and mortgage lender, discusses anything that affects the roof over your head, your bank account or other items that will benefit you / your family. Reach Ron at 800.306.1990 Ron@RonSiegelRadio.comwww.RonSiegelRadio.comwww.SiegelLendingTeam.comTwitter: @RonSiegelwww.Facebook.com/RonSiegelRadio
Hugh Anderson, co-Managing Partner of Hightower Las Vegas, fills us in on the expected reversal of Quantitative Easing by the Fed and what a Syria attack might mean for your pocket book.
In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss HFT and QE3 rat-bots chasing and bullying the world into a Great Depression. They also discuss the dangerous situation of France once again becoming a peripheral country to Germany. In the second half of the show, Max talks to Pierre Jovanovic, French radio talk show host and author of 'Blythe Masters,' about the smell of not napalm, but revolution in the air in France – unemployment is worsening, suicides by jumping in front of trains are up drastically, and Goldman Sachs says workers need to cut their pay by 30 percent. They also discuss history repeating itself as Germany once again finds itself looking for its gold, as in Wagner’s 'Das Rheingold.' Keiser Report 3-4-13
More shootings and killings at another grade school. War against Syria. The Fiscal Cliff. Gay Marriage. The federal deficit, declining economy and QE3. Are all these problems happening at the same time just by happenstance? No. The agenda is "Order out of Chaos". Join ABC to discuss current events, the new world order, and this illusion of a false reality that is, in fact, the Matrix. Freedomizer Radio Call in and join us - 347.324.3704 Join our live chat and listen at http://www.freedomizerradio.com
This week's episode of Discovering the Truth with Dan Duval will feature best selling author Jerry Robinson. Jerry is the author of the book Bankruptcy of Our Nation. He is an economist, serial entrepreneur, international speaker, and radio host of Follow the Money Weekly. Jerry's website can be found at www.ftmdaily.com. You can also find him featured on World Net Daily's popular website (www.wnd.com) on a weekly basis. He has appeared on numerous radio and TV programs including FOX News. He has been quoted by USA Today and other news agencies on the topic of the economy and has had columns appearing in publications such as Townhall and Financial Sense. This week Jerry will be joining us to address a broad spectrum of topics dealing with money, the US economy, the debt crisis, QE3, the petrodollar system, and the consumption trap. He will also be explaining to us his approach to financial security. This will include viable strategies for generating multiple streams of income. This is a timely and relevant show that will bless you with applicable insights. Don't miss this week's episode of Discovering the Truth with Dan Duval!
Following the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programme in September, there were predictions of a rise in appetite for emerging markets currencies, yet this has failed to materialise. Benoit Anne, head of emerging markets strategy at Soc Gen, joins FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross to talk about current sentiment towards EM currencies. Also under discussion is the rise of the Mexican peso, and whether its popularity is shortlived. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
Between 1980 and 2000, the wealth of our nation grew enormously. Interest rates dropped, dot com businesses grew, and then the housing market was rocketing. We then went into a tricky period where overall net worth grew a bit until the dot com crash; the middle class was sustained to some degree by the housing boom, and then dropped sharply with the housing crash. Dr. H. Woody Brock, President and Founder of Strategic Economic Decisions and author of American Gridlock, joins Jason Hartman for an in-depth explanation of the financial health of our nation across social classes. Dr. Brock discusses the nation overall and then breaks it down into the rich, the middle class, and the poor. The distribution of wealth have left the poor worse off and the rich very well off, as well as shrinking the middle class, but as Dr. Brock explains, looking at the distribution of consumption, the poor and middle classes are in a better position than when looking at the distribution of income. Dr. Brock also expounds on QE3, the Federal Reserve actions, bank reserves, de-leveraging, and more. He wraps up on the subject of his book, American Gridlock: Why the Right and Left are Both Wrong.Founder of Strategic Economic Decisions (SED), Inc., Dr. Horace “Woody” Brock specializes in applications of the modern Economics of Uncertainty (originally developed and championed by Kenneth J. Arrow of Stanford University) to forecasting and risk assessment in the international economy and its asset markets. Holder of five academic degrees, Dr. Brock earned his B.A., M.B.A., and M.S. (mathematics) from Harvard University, and his M.A. and Ph.D. from Princeton University (mathematical economics and political philosophy). He was elected an Andrew Mellon Foundation Bicentennial Fellow of the Aspen Institute in 1976. Dr. Brock studied under Kenneth J. Arrow, Professor of Economics, and John C. Harsanyi, Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, both winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics. Dr. Brock founded SED in 1985, and in doing so was sponsored by Fidelity, GE Capital, IBM Pension Fund, and twenty other institutions looking for a much deeper level of analysis of interest rates and the economy. In its research, SED has focused on apprehending ongoing structural changes in the economy and markets to help clients avoid the pitfalls of illegitimately extrapolating the past into the future. In this regard, Dr. Brock has worked closely with Professor Mordecai Kurz of Stanford University in developing the new theory of Rational Beliefs that is now replacing the classical theory of “Efficient Markets”. This new theory explains for the first time the way in which history rhymes but does not repeat itself.
Better than expected jobs data has kept markets supported, but it does feel as if some of the momentum from recent months has started to flag. The focus has now switched to the US earnings season, and so far the results have been encouraging.
There are only 23 Days left until the Election. Tonight on Bards Logic is the continuing discussion from the 2012 Election Season. We discussed how America has gotten to this point and where we are going. Some of the topics are the Presidential Candidates, the current duopolistic political system, QE3, the Pro-Life Issue, and the China Trade Deals around the World that will no longer use the U.S. Dollar as its trading currency, and more. Join us in this important Conversation.
There are only 24 Days left until the Election. Tonight on Bards Logic is a Politically Incorrect look at the 2012 Election Season, Current Events and the 24 days left until the Election.... and the days beyond. We will discuss how we and America got to this point and where we are going. Some of the topics are the Presidential Candidates, what was NOT said in the debates, the Middle East conflicts, QE3 and the China Trade Deals around the World that will no longer use the U.S. Dollar as its trading currency, and more. Join us in this important Conversation.
This broadcast, recorded 2 years ago gives shocking facts of what was predicted then, and what is happening now with the recent round of QE3 easing from the Fed. See how and listen to predictions of what we said along with others how the economy would be in 2012, and beyond. The economics of the current administration and the decisions of the middle east policies will push America into becoming a 3rd world country. We encourage you as Christians to get prepared to be involved in a recession that makes the GREAT Depression of the 20's and 30's look like a picnic. We will do a follow up broadcast of this episode in the near future giving additional information we have researched that points to the emergence of The Anti-Christ from the Middle East, and a growing knowledge of financial collapse coming to America soon....it is our hope and prayer that Christ will return soon to rapture the Church..but we must warn you, persecution is part of trials, and just how long the Lord will tarry we do not know. So we encourage you to get your house in order, to pray and to live a life that is holy and clean before the Lord...visit our website at http://propheciesoftheendtimes.com for more information....stay tuned
Legendary investor, David Dreman, says to buy stocks right now. He also discusses the implications of QE3, shares some of his favorite ideas, and explains why he feels bad for most investors.
- Dr. Alan Blinder, former Fed governor joins Moe to discuss the Fed and the economy - Please call 1-800-388-9700 for a free review of your financial portoflio
Ed Butowsky, wealth manager, financial advisor, and managing partner of Chapwood Investment Management, joins The Blaze TV with E.D. Hill to examine how the questionable jobs report and the recent announcement over QE3 are impacting how the American economy could be in more trouble than before.
September 21, 2012 Mike Barker, Investment & Retirement Management discusses the market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's QE3 announcement last week and the fluctuation in the market this past week. Barker looks at the upcoming earnings announcement and the investigation of high frequency trading.
Reid L Rosenthal On the Right Side Archives - WebTalkRadio.net
Think the Fed is some distant,, shadowy, financial beasty that has no impact on you and your family? And that ECB “over there in Europe”–that’s too far away to affect you? Wrong, Very wrong. And if you are middle class, doubly wrong. Reid explains in simple terms what QE3 is–and what it is about to […] The post Reid L Rosenthal On the Right Side – Do Your Eyes Glaze at “QE3”? Do You Pooh Pooh The Federal Reserve And The ECB (European Central Bank)? Don’t. Their “New” Policy Is A Bigger Theft From Your Pocket Than the $1+ Trillion Looming In Tax Increases 3 Months From Now…And 2 Disturbing Articles–Failure, Futility, and Revolution. appeared first on WebTalkRadio.net.
GLC's Steven Bell and Chris Pulman discuss Japan, QE3 and Europe. Recorded at midday on Monday 1st October 2012 at Soho Square Studios in London. This podcast is ... GLC's Managing Director Lawrence Staden and Chief Economist Steven Bell give their views on the markets.
Geoffrey Yu, foreign exchange strategist at UBS, joins FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross to discuss the fallout on the currencies markets from the Spanish budget – and whether a bailout is now more or less likely – as well as when the focus will swing back towards Greece. Also, what is the QE3 effect on the commodities currencies? See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
Dave a Robb discuss the country of Estonia that went against the grain of current policy theory and "took their medicine" to then grow and thrive years later. Additionally, we will discuss the creation and role of risk as it relates to insurance and how it applies to our world today
Weekly Radio Crux - Quick Updates on Financial Markets and the Economy
This week's episode covers some "must-hear" insight on QE3, why Obama is singling out one big Wall Street bank, what's happening on Occupy Wall Street's first anniversary, some incredible facts about the iPhone 5, and more.
We continue our series on Home Insect Management with our guest, George Haynes of Otis Pest Control. For nearly 40 years, the Otis Pest Control team has been providing the highest level of pest control service to Knoxville and the surrounding area. They've built their reputation around one thing: doing the job right the first time. Their staff of certified professional technicians are experts in pest control, and the company is built on the superior customer service they provide our clients. Locally-owned and operated, but spanning an area including more than 20 East Tennessee counties, Otis Pest Control is uniquely positioned to offer the service and smile of a local business with the top-notch professional service you expect. There's no risk to receive a free termite and pest control inspection. Join us for a fascinating look at household pests and the diseases they can cause. Our last segment, Kevin and Mark talk about QE3 and its historic and future impact on rates, housing and jobs.
Michael Hewson, senior market analyst at CMC markets, joins FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross to discuss the likelihood of a new outbreak of the currency wars and why Japan, not Brazil, has most to complain about from more quantitative easing in the US. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
Dave and Robb tackle the specter of student loan debt and ask the challenging questions of whether or not college is worth it. We discuss why college rates keep climbing and how “cheap” student loan money has created a bubble of pricing. We dive into different strategies to pay off college debt as well as parlay how government involved markets ultimately create significant damage. This parlays perfectly into QE3 and how it effects the stock market. Additionaly, we will discuss the genesis of the “Company” and stock market through chapter 3 of The Ascent of Money.
The Wall Street Geek is hosted by financial expert Michelle Price, Managing Pricipal of fee only financial advisor Price Capital LLC in NYC and the author of "How to Buy Stocks Online" (available at Amazon). In this week's show: Market Talk: QE3 and how it may affect your walletMoney Moves: Ideas and strategies for a low interest rate environmentEye on Washington: Decision 2012 and election talkWasn't That Some Bull? A presidential candidate had a few things to say about his oppenent's voters. Right or wrong? Don't forget to follow this show. Don't miss a thing! Friday's at 12:30 pm EST.
Sam and Ivan talk about: * Small Talk * Gaffes * More Gaffes / Middle East Blow Up / Management Styles * Electoral College Update / QE3 / iPhone 5
Capital Markets UpdateOriginal Air Date: September 20, 2012Capital markets experts share the latest on QE3, IPO, M&A, CMBS, OREO, LTV, DCR, REITs and BB&T.We Couldn't resist. Don't miss it. If you have any questions or comments you're invited to contact the show at Info@CREshow.com or 888-612-SHOW.
Topic for the Show: QE3 and the Gulf buildup for WWIII
Cutting Through the Matrix with Alan Watt Podcast (.xml Format)
--{ Societal Evolution is Planned Devolution: "For Every Aspect of Society and Behaviour There's a Government Agency Posing as Saviour, Nothing's Been Missed, Nor Left to Chance, From the Music You'll Hear to Latest Dance, Departments of Culture, Directing the Change, Legal Societies Manage Fallout, Rearrange New Normals, For Apparently Change is Good, Dress as Opposite Gender if in the Mood, Promiscuity is Healthy, The State You See Will Abort Nuisance Pregnancies, Treat S.T.D., Elite Call it Progress as You are Degraded, Generation by Generation Normalcy's Faded" © Alan Watt }-- British Empire, System of "Democracy" - Social Engineering and Degradation - World Wars and Creation of Global Government - Future of Europe Group Pushes for Stronger Executive Branch and Total Integration - Every Individual under Observation by Gov. - Federal Reserve, QE3, Foreclosed Property, Bailout of Banks - Whooping Cough Vaccination - Gender-Bending Chemicals in Fast-Food Wrappers - China Leases North Korean Port - Colorado School calls Rosary Beads Gang Symbol - Bad Pension Policy - Eugenics, National Health Service, 'Do Not Resuscitate' Orders - Hepatitis B Vaccine and Liver Damage - Scotland---Threat to World Stone-Skimming Championship from John Feigenbaum. (See http://www.cuttingthroughthematrix.com for article links.) *Title/Poem and Dialogue Copyrighted Alan Watt - Sept. 18, 2012 (Exempting Music, Literary Quotes, and Callers' Comments)
Option Block 183: Bernanke PutsTrading Block: Most of the major indices giving back some of the QE3 love, after an abnormally odd Friday. QE3: good, bad or ugly? A rundown from the options conference last week. Is Grigus still on the Groupon love train?Option Block: Shares of Linn Energy (LINE) are trading low; traders look for increased vol on Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS), and; LEAPS calls active on IAMGOLD (IAG).Xpress Block: John Grigus gets in OX hot seat to talk about what's been coming across the desk today. Crude oil had over 13,000 contracts go up in less than a minute. Grains also lighting up the tape.Around the Block: Post-QE3 and post-Apple malaise? When will the next shoe drop? Home sales on the 19th. Oracle and AutoZone earnings also on the 19th.
Option Block 183: Bernanke PutsTrading Block: Most of the major indices giving back some of the QE3 love, after an abnormally odd Friday. QE3: good, bad or ugly? A rundown from the options conference last week. Is Grigus still on the Groupon love train?Option Block: Shares of Linn Energy (LINE) are trading low; traders look for increased vol on Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS), and; LEAPS calls active on IAMGOLD (IAG).Xpress Block: John Grigus gets in OX hot seat to talk about what's been coming across the desk today. Crude oil had over 13,000 contracts go up in less than a minute. Grains also lighting up the tape.Around the Block: Post-QE3 and post-Apple malaise? When will the next shoe drop? Home sales on the 19th. Oracle and AutoZone earnings also on the 19th.
Ara Levonian joins Steven Bell in the studio this week to discuss Global Manufacturing Data, the German Constitutional Court, and QE3. Recorded at midday on Monday 17th September 2012 at Soho ... GLC's Managing Director Lawrence Staden and Chief Economist Steven Bell give their views on the markets.
An expose on public schools, a brief history of socialism in the 20th century, and a discussion of the brilliance of the average voter and the dangers of QE3 with John Tamny - the editor of RealClearMarkets and Forbes Opinions, a senior economic adviser to H.C. Wainwright Economics, and a senior economic adviser to Toreador Research and Trading (www.trtadvisors.com). He can be reached at jtamny@realclearmarkets.com. Freedomain Radio is the largest and most popular philosophy show on the web - http://www.freedomainradio.com
As widely expected, this week saw the US central bank do more to stimulate the economy and it ended up being quite a lot more than markets were expecting. The net result is that US stock markets are back to pre-financial-crisis levels; the euro recovery continues and even gold has woken up in recent weeks - but will it last?
Peter Kinsella, senior currency strategist at Commerzbank, joins FT currencies correspondent Alice Ross to assess the impact of more quantitative easing from the US federal reserve on the currency markets and is the worst now past for the euro? See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
Steven Bell and Lawrence Staden discuss Mario Draghi, QE3 and Corporate Earnings. Recorded at midday on Monday 10th September 2012 at Soho Square Studios in London. This ... GLC's Managing Director Lawrence Staden and Chief Economist Steven Bell give their views on the markets.
1. Why U.S. unemployment is a lie. 8.1% vs 11.7%. 2. Oil exports: China super power. 3. QE3 baby! 4. Construction workers non-constructive. 5. U.S. under-employed a farce. 6. Apple challenged by Asian patent suit. 7. 100% negative PMI. 8. NYSE is not reality. 9. CNBC: Your ass is mine. www.thefinancialreality.com
McAlvany Weekly Commentary About this week's show: Artificially low interest rates can't last forever Hopes for QE3 force hopes for bad news?! Gold breaks out of pennant to upside The McAlvany Weekly Commentary with David McAlvany and Kevin Orrick Kevin: David, one of the things that I know you watch on a pretty consistent basis is the psychology […] The post Bernanke in the Land of Oz appeared first on McAlvany Weekly Commentary.
Option Block 178: Apple: Cheap? Expensive? Cheap Expensive? Trading Block: A slow Friday. Looking at the spread between VIX cash and the VIX futures. What is causing the build-up in premium? Looking at the November elections. Xpress Block: Sean Fitzgerald gets the OX hot seat today and discusses the lack of volume this last month and the interesting orders from today on Salesforce.com. The Fed and QE3. Strategy Block: Today's strategy block is hosted by Mark Sebastian, who, using Apple as an example, discusses the idea of cheap and inexpensive and how to use realized volatility when you trade. Around the Block: A slow week predicted before Labor Day. Keeping an eye on the employment report.
Lawrence Staden and Steven Bell discuss the UK Economy, base rates, Europe, and prospects for QE3. Recorded at midday on Monday 20th August 2012 at Soho Square Studios in London. ... GLC's Managing Director Lawrence Staden and Chief Economist Steven Bell give their views on the markets.
Derek Halpenny, European head of global currency research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, talks to Alice Ross, FT currencies correspondent about why intervention from the Bank of Japan into the yen is unlikely despite the currency’s strength and why whilst the ECB’s bond buying programme is likely to restart, QE3 from the Fed is unlikely in August. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
Mansoor Mohi-Uddin, head of FX strategy at UBS, joins the FT's currencies correspondent Alice Ross to discuss how the euro might drive currency markets in the wake of the Greek elections, the likelihood of a new round of QE3 in the US in light of recent bad economic data and the case for further monetary easing in the UK See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
Ed Butowsky, wealth manager, financial advisor, and managing partner of Chapwood Investment Management, joins CNBC Closing Bell to examine if the Federal Reserve will act on its plans for QE3 given the weak economic data reported this past week.
Ed Butowsky, wealth manager, financial advisor, and managing partner of Chapwood Investment Management, joins CNBC Closing Bell to discuss the intervention of the Global Central Banks could this be a short term action plan or is there something else in the works?
1. QE3 rally to only last a couple hours, Morgan Stanley. 2. French cut retirement age from 62 to 60. 3. US labor market: statistic hell city. 4. Financials rally big time. 5. ECB, inflation. No easing thank you. 6. I don't trust the fed. 7. Spain to adopt reforms without embarrassment? LOL. www.thefinancialreality.com
Chris Mayer, editor of the Capital & Crisis newsletter, expects a bailout of the European banking system... Plus, China and the U.S. announcing their own stimulus plans in the months ahead. He says this may not have the "normal" positive reaction for stocks... But gold will soar.
Stansberry Radio - Edgy Source for Investing, Finance & Economics
Porter and Aaron welcome economic forecaster, newsletter publisher, and best-selling author Harry Dent to the program. Harry explains his views about generational economics and the prospects for the U.S. economy as the Baby Boomer generation enters retirement as well as the various scenarios facing Europe. Porter also wagers his usual amount with Harry Dent on what the price of gold will be by 2020.
Host Jerry Robinson discusses why now may be the best time to invest in natural gas. Other topics include: The timing of QE3, gold prices, and the record $369 billion March U.S. deficit.
1. Bridgewater: Hyperinflation study. 2. U.S. Retail sales: 2/3rd gasoline inflation. 3. Obama: Trade war. 4. FOMC: Sees inflation, no QE3. 5. ZH headlines. www.thefinancialreality.com
Bernanke spooked the market today talking about QE3 stimulus. Why are oil prices so high - Don't listen to the political parties. Is the SP500 going up 34% this year?
Although a little bit weaker on Friday, markets are ending the week overall on a bullish footing, after the US Federal Reserve's broad hint on Wednesday that interest rates will be remaining low for some time put a rocket under many asset classes. Even the euro managed to stage an impressive recovery, pushing out to fresh highs for 2012 against the US dollar. But will it last? This week's podcast looks at what got traders excited in recent days and what to look out for in the week ahead.
1. Fed to possibly print another $770 billion. 2. Bernanke says no QE3, continued ZIRP. LOL. 3. Gold up 9.4% YTD. 4. Obama to oust Geithener next if he wins next term. 5. Spain broke? Begs ECB. www.thefinancialreailty.com
Option Block 85: Apple's Jobs-lessness Trading Block: The news of Steve Jobs stepping down from Apple has dominated the headlines. What does this mean for future Apple plays? What's the outlook on Apple vol going forward? An outlook of the metals market. The CME raises the margin rate of gold, a little too late? What's driving an interest in copper? Also, has scalping negative gamma exacerbated the downward movements seen in the past few weeks? Xpress Block: Rob K discusses how Bank of America's order flow surged as bottom pickers got an early Christmas care of Warren Buffet. The newest OX iPad app is just around the corner! Around the Block: QE3 - Does it even have a prayer of happening? What is the positioning ahead of the Bernanke speech? Could we possibly take a hit going into the weekend?
Moe discusses the possibility of QE3 with Robert Heller, former Fed Governor. Please call 1-800-388-9700 to make a reservation to meet Moe in Denver with free breakfast and parking.
What is one of the most important stories of the last ten years? It's the one that major pop media outlets seem to have not been interested in telling: the government of China has dumped 97% of its US bonds. Why? We explain in this audio. It's extremely important that this move set off alarm bells for anyone willing to listen to this message. Get ready. Also, get ready for more and more "unconstitutional conditions" being placed on US citizens by the federal, state and local gubments. What do we mean? Listen to this audio as we make the connection between the TSA and Florida's welfare program... Important stuff. Be Seeing You!
McAlvany Weekly Commentary A Look At This Weeks Show: Treating the value of the dollar as a constant is a rookie mistake. Will QE2 end early only to be replaced later with “emergency” QE3? How inflation affects the four players of the economy: The Debtor, The Saver, The Creditor and The Consumer. Who wins, who loses and why. […] The post The Importance of Equal Weights and Measures appeared first on McAlvany Weekly Commentary.