Podcasts about Bond market

This week, Collin Martin sits in for Liz Ann Sonders. Kathy Jones and Collin discuss the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut. They analyze the current state of the credit markets, particularly focusing on recent defaults and the implications for high-yield bonds. The discussion also covers the demand dynamics in private-versus-public credit markets and the potential risks associated with high-yield investments. Finally, they look ahead to upcoming economic indicators and the challenges posed by a lack of data.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned are not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.High-yield securities and unrated securities of similar credit quality (junk bonds) are subject to greater levels of credit and liquidity risks and may be more volatile than higher-rated securities. High-yield securities are considered predominately speculative with respect to the issuer's continuing ability to make principal and interest payments.Investing in alternative investments is speculative, not suitable for all clients, and generally intended for experienced and sophisticated investors who are willing and able to bear the high economic risks of the investment. Investors should obtain and carefully read the related prospectus or offering memorandum, which will contain the information needed to help evaluate the potential investment and provide important disclosures regarding risks, fees and expenses.Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. Bloomberg US Corporate High-Yield Bond Index- Measures the performance of the US Dollar-Denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high-yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Bloomberg EM country definition, are excluded. It is a market-value weighted index.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.(1025-02S5) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The A.M. Update delivers a Friday five-pack of stories, including John Bolton's indictment for mishandling classified documents and Mitch McConnell's concerning fall in the Capitol. Jay Jones apologizes for vile texts in Virginia's AG race, while Zohran Mamdani shames Andrew Cuomo in NYC's mayoral debate.   John Bolton, classified documents, Mitch McConnell, Jay Jones, Virginia AG race, Zohran Mamdani, Andrew Cuomo, NYC mayoral race, AOC, Chuck Schumer, economy, bond markets, Apple podcast issues, Kamala Harris book tour, Mark Driscoll, Adam Steen

What makes capitalism the most successful wealth-building system in history?  Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explore how economic freedom, private ownership, and innovation incentives have lifted billions out of poverty and created unmatched prosperity. Why do societies that embrace free markets and entrepreneurship tend to enjoy higher standards of living, longer lifespans, and greater personal happiness? Lance & Michael examine the misconceptions surrounding capitalism—why critics often overlook the power of voluntary exchange and how wealth creation benefits everyone over time. 0:19 - Earnings Season is Underway w 75% Beat Rates 4:49 - Markets Maintain Bullish Trend w Lackluster Conviction 8:23 - The Itch to Twitch w Royalty-free Music 10:04 - The Fed Moves Forward - Net Impact to Bond Market 13:58 - There is No More Liquidity - Effects in Crypto Realm 17:03 - The Danger of Buying Crypto on Margin 19:57 - Leverage Works Worse in Reverse 24:04 - When the Markets Break 29:59 - Capitalism vs Socialism - the path to prosperity 31:49 - Quantifying Capitalism - The Economic Freedom Index 35:22 - Capitalism is Not an Equalization System 38:23 - The Global Decline of Economic Freedom 39:32 - Does Wealth Buy Happiness? 40:58 - Defining the "American Dream" 43:16 - Why Businesses Fail 44:51 - The Savanna Bananas 46:57 - Capitalism Is Not Fair

In this compilation program, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero field a variety of finance and investment questions from callers across the United States and around the World.Today's Stocks & Topics: Strategy for a Potential Recession, Silver, I-R-A Rollover, Sitting on Cash, Earnings Forecast, Pros and Cons of 351 Exchange, Short-Term Rental Market, Cash Balance Plan, Retirement Saving Plans, How to Invest in the Bond Market, Dividend Reinvestment Plan, Retirement Accounts, Gains and Taxes, Financial Ratios.Our Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic: https://claude.ai/INVEST* Check out Gusto: https://gusto.com/investtalk* Check out Progressive: https://www.progressive.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code INVEST for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

Simone Bruno, Associate Director, Data Analyst, Market Practice and Regulatory Policy, summarises the recenty released ICMA European Secondary Bond Market Data Report, covering sovereign bonds

Andy Hill, Co-Head of Market Practice and Regulatory Policy, discusses bond market axe distribution standards.

Natalie Westerbarkey, Co-Head of Market Practice and Regulatory Policy, explores lessons from the EU consultation on building integrated bond markets and summarises ICMA's vision.

Natalie Westerbarkey, Co-Head of Market Practice and Regulatory Policy, talks through ICMA's bond market policy mind map & ecosystem.

Eric and Matt break down a strong third quarter that saw the S&P 500 climb 10%, leaving Liberation Day's tariff chaos behind. They explore the growing divide between wealthy asset owners feeling great and everyone else struggling with inflation, while examining why bonds are pricing in Fed rate cuts even as stocks surge. The conversation turns to the private markets boom and whether opening up private equity to retail 401(k) investors is a good idea or a disaster waiting to happen. Eric shares why AI companies are burning massive amounts of capital with unclear returns, yet may be impossible to bet against if they build a cult-like following. They note that credit markets still look healthy despite late-cycle warning signs, making this moment particularly unusual. A straightforward look at where we are in this cycle and what actually matters as we head into year-end. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page HERE. ----- Making Markets is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Making Markets, visit joincolossus.com/episodes. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @makingmkts | @ericgoldenx Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes (00:00:00) Welcome to Making Markets (00:01:30) Economic Structures and Consumer Demand (00:04:34) Tariffs and Their Impact on the Economy (00:05:10) Travel and Leisure Sector Post-COVID (00:07:44) Bond Market and Federal Reserve Actions (00:16:34) Private Equity and Market Trends (00:22:24) Retirement Funds and 401(k) Investments (00:25:04) Concerns Over New Investment Vehicles (00:26:51) Debates on Private and Public Assets (00:30:14) Religious Investor Bases and Market Dynamics (00:31:54) AI and Its Impact on Markets (00:41:46) Social Media and Market Sentiment (00:44:04) Concluding Thoughts on Markets and Society Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Investors' exuberance is fueling this year's stock rally, but will key economic risks dampen the market's mood? The current bull run has lifted stocks from their springtime lows to higher levels in autumn. The artificial intelligence boom is one of the big factors driving it. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is dealing with the challenging situation of balancing the weakening job market and stubborn inflation. The Fed cut interest rates for the first time in 2025 in the third quarter, but the path forward from here is less certain. Morningstar Inc Senior Markets Reporter Sarah Hansen discusses seven key market factors you should watch in Q4 2025.Nvidia's investment of up to $100 billion in ChatGPT creator OpenAI could shatter records. The big bet is helping feed two simple narratives about the AI era, according to Dan Kemp, chief research and investment officer at Morningstar Investment Management Europe. First, there's too much investment in the technology, and booms tend to lead to busts. Second, AI has changed the rules of investing and returns. Kemp cautions investors to remember that there are a wide range of possible outcomes than these easy stories.  On this episode:You examine the highs and lows during each quarter and write about it. What do you think are the biggest takeaways from Q3? Stocks are climbing higher despite a lot of risks. What signals is the market ignoring, and could it be at its own peril? The AI boom is driving what's going on in the market. Mega-cap tech companies are making huge investments. Where's the money going, and how long is this level of spending expected to continue? The hot IPO market has benefited from AI. Some of the most successful IPOs this year involved the industry. Can you describe this revival? The first interest rate cut of 2025 is in the books. The Federal Reserve pointed to the softening job market as one reason for the move. What are strategists telling you as the markets await the Fed's next move? Inflation is still not tamed and hovering above the Fed's 2% target. There are expectations that tariffs could raise prices for a while. What are the outlooks from Morningstar and other strategists? As the Fed cuts rates, short-term yields will come down. What about the rest of the bond market? Where do people see the risks? The federal funding fight is continuing in Washington, D.C. Let's timestamp this moment. It's Tuesday, Sept. 30. The US government would shut down on Oct. 1 if there's not an agreement. How does uncertainty like this affect the markets, and what should investors think? Earnings season is coming up in a couple weeks. What is your team watching for? What's the takeaway for investors as we enter Q4?We talked on last week's Investing Insights about inflation. The Federal Reserve's preferred tracker showed inflation slightly ticked up in August as forecasters expected. It also revealed consumer spending rose. What do you think that's signaling about the US economy? In this week's Markets Brief column, you highlighted Nvidia's potentially record-breaking investment. The chipmaker announced it would invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI. How should investors think about this deal?New economic data is due out this week. What are you tracking for next week's Markets Brief? Read about topics from this episode.  13 Charts on Q3's Tech-Driven Stock Rally Will the AI Boom in Semiconductor Stocks Continue? What Investors Need to Know About the Steepening Yield Curve The Fed's ‘Difficult Situation': Reading Between the Lines of the September Dot Plot Forecasts for August PCE Report Shows Some Cooling, but Tariff Impacts Persist What Investors Need to Know About a US Government Shutdown Markets Brief: Nvidia's AI Spending Spree Raises Boom and Bust Fears  What to watch from Morningstar. Is Your Dividend Income at Risk? Here's How to Spot Dividend Traps Should You Hold Cash Investments After the Fed Cuts Interest Rates?What You Need to Know Before Choosing a Stock ETFInvesting in AI? Here Are 6 Undervalued Stocks for Buy-and-Hold Investors Read what our team is writing.Sarah HansenDan KempIvanna Hampton Follow us on social media.Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/X: https://x.com/MorningstarIncInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar... LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/5161/

It might be tempting to buy dividend stocks with the highest yields, but not all dividend payers are safe. Those big payouts could be signaling that a company's fundamentals are cracking. Looming financial risks could wreak havoc on income-focused investors' portfolios. But there are ways to spot dividend traps. Morningstar Indexes strategist and columnist Dan Lefkovitz explains how to avoid the risks.Both healthcare and consumer defensive sectors are lagging the broader stock market this year, but for different reasons.Dan Kemp, chief research and investment officer at Morningstar Investment Management Europe, explored what's behind it in this week's Markets Brief column. He says consumer defensive stocks are falling from high valuations, while healthcare stocks are facing significant headwinds like politics and earnings growth. He reminds investors that's why it's important to understand not only what you own in your portfolio, but why you own it as well. On this episode:What is a dividend trap, and under what conditions do they tend to develop? You and your team published research on dividend traps just before Dow Chemical DOW cut its dividend in half over the summer. How does your research explain what happened with Dow? Other well-known brands have also slashed their dividend payouts since 2020. The list includes Shell, Walgreens, and Intel. What warning signs were these companies flashing before their cuts? You have written about how income-focused investors can avoid dividend traps. Let's start with step number one on how to spot them. What is the payout ratio, and what does it tell us about a company's health?The second step focuses on a company's durable competitive advantage or economic moat. Can you describe what that reveals?Your team weeds out dividend payers using a third step that relies on Distance to Default. How does that work, and what did you all find out? How can investors protect their dividend income from risks? Would portfolio diversification help? What's the key takeaway to spot dividend traps?We discussed on last week's Investing Insights that you would focus on the market moves following the Fed's quarter-point cut. How have the US dollar and bond prices reacted?  In this week's Markets Brief column, you zoomed in on the lagging performance of healthcare and consumer defensive stocks. What's important for investors to know?  New data on inflation from the Fed's preferred tracker is set to come out Friday, September 26th. Inflation is hovering above the Fed's 2% target. What are the markets' expectations, and what would a surprise in the data mean for the near future? Read about topics from this episode.  Not All Dividend Stocks Are Safe. Here's How to Avoid Dividend Traps What Investors Can Learn from Dow's 50% Dividend Cut 7 Things You May Not Know About Dividends The 10 Best Dividend Stocks Does Dividend Investing Still Work? Construction Rules for the Morningstar Indexes Distance to Default Markets Brief: AI Investment is Massive in a Cyclical Industry. Will This Time Be Different? What to watch from Morningstar. Should You Hold Cash Investments After the Fed Cuts Interest Rates? What You Need to Know Before Choosing a Stock ETFInvesting in AI? Here Are 6 Undervalued Stocks for Buy-and-Hold InvestorsDo Dividend Stocks Benefit From Non-US Revenue? Read what our team is writing.Dan Lefkovitz Dan KempIvanna Hampton Follow us on social media.Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/X: https://x.com/MorningstarIncInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar... LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/5161/

It's three years since the Truss/Kwarteng mini-budget which sent the bond market into meltdown. In this Deep Dive we'll be looking into the nitty gritty of bonds while also discussing the big picture and asking why UK bond yields are so high, and what effect that may have on the budget in November. (02:10) Laith and Danni are joined by Ian Aylward, head of investment partnerships at AJ Bell, to discuss what bonds are and what factors affect prices. (17:39) Laith talks to Rupert Harrison, senior adviser at PIMCO and formerly Chief of Staff to George Osborne when he was Chancellor. Rupert gives his views on what is driving higher UK government borrowing costs and what the bond market wants from Rachel Reeves in the forthcoming budget.   (41:52) Ian, Laith and Danni talk about why people invest in bonds, and discuss the bond funds that are available to investors.   (53:13) Laith talks to Alex Ralph, fund manager of the Nedgroup Global Strategic Bond fund, about how she picks bonds and how she sees the market right now.

Gene Tunny and John Humphreys unpack the economic troubles brewing in the UK, France, and the US—rising debt, social unrest, inflation, and faltering productivity. They explore why bond markets are sounding alarms, why governments are struggling to respond, and what this all means for Australia. The episode draws urgent lessons from these fiscal failures, with stark warnings for what lies ahead if policy inertia continues. Among other issues, they discuss Gary Stevenson's proposal for a wealth tax in the UK. Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com.This episode was recorded on Thursday, 18 September 2025.  TimestampsEconomic Challenges in Major Western Economies (0:00)Discussion on UK Economic Turmoil (2:31)Impact of Bond Market on UK Government (7:35)Comparison with France and the US (16:43)Lessons for Australia (35:29)Impact of Political Polarisation (43:55)Potential Solutions and Challenges (44:15)Global Economic Repercussions (44:49)Conclusion and Final Thoughts (46:24)TakeawaysThe UK's fiscal crisis is deepening with stalled per capita GDP, rising debt, and bond markets losing confidence.France is politically paralysed amid fiscal deficits and bond yields now surpassing Italy's—an unprecedented shift.The US faces stagflation risks, with inflation ticking back up and concerns about economic growth.Productivity stagnation is the root problem across Western economies, fueling deficits and weakening growth.Australia must learn from others' mistakes, avoiding unsustainable spending and instead boosting productivity.Links relevant to the conversationSlides with charts referred to this episode:https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZMkunGxYj57TnCajOxvMcTEh0fQj0y5L/view?usp=sharingAustralian Taxpayers' Alliance Livestream of 18 September 2025:https://www.youtube.com/live/8YxnRT_YD50?si=_A1udQmCag3dMtyCLumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee's Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED 

Keith McCullough, Founder & CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, joins Soar Financially just hours before a critical Fed decision to break down the macro forces driving today's markets.From the inverse correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar to stagflation, bond yields, and political pressure on the Fed, Keith explains why inflation is re-accelerating and what investors should do heading into Q4. He also shares insights on China-U.S. trade tensions, AI disruption, and where gold, silver, and stocks could go next.#gold #inflation #ai ------------Thank you to our #sponsor MONEY METALS. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://bit.ly/BUYGoldSilver------------

China's yield curve is being reshaped in a way that has created confusion across the spectrum. Even policymakers at the PBOC are talking about the need to do something. However, market behavior is consistent with what we're seeing around the rest of the world and how it all relates to China finding a way out of its mess and hitting upon a real recovery. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------If you want to see what you've been missing - and it's A LOT - then join us at Eurodollar University. Our memberships have got you covered where it comes to mastering monetary mechanics. You won't find this anywhere else. https://www.eurodollar.university/memberships---------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg China Bond Slump Fuels Speculation PBOC Will Resume Debt Buyinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-14/china-bond-slump-fuels-speculation-pboc-will-resume-debt-buyingReuters Chinese money flows into bonds even as central bank warns of riskshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinese-money-flows-into-bonds-even-central-bank-warns-risks-2024-06-27/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Discord Channel: https://discord.gg/pqKsMKp6SA The Federal Reserve has just cut rates, and the bond market is buzzing. On today's show, I'm joined by Bill Addiss — a veteran with 40+ years in the bond markets — to break down exactly what this decision means for Treasuries, yields, and fixed-income investors. We'll discuss:

This week on Inside the Economy, we take a closer look at employment trends, the pending rate cut, stock valuations, and the U.S. bond market. Jobless claims are rising and the unemployment rate has ticked up. Could fewer hours worked per employee be part of the story? Equity valuations are reaching levels not seen in decades. With the S&P 500 trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.4, we explore whether a correction could occur or if there might be room for further growth. Meanwhile, in the bond market, commercial paper issuance has surged back to levels last seen in 2006. What could be driving this renewed activity after nearly two decades? Tune in to learn more. Key Takeaways: • U.S. Core Consumer Price Index at 3.1% (YOY) • ISM Service Survey reached 52.0 % • 10-year bond yield at 4.01%

This week on Inside the Economy, we take a closer look at employment trends, the pending rate cut, stock valuations, and the U.S. bond market. Jobless claims are rising and the unemployment rate has ticked up. Could fewer hours worked per employee be part of the story? Equity valuations are reaching levels not seen in decades. With the S&P 500 trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.4, we explore whether a correction could occur or if there might be room for further growth. Meanwhile, in the bond market, commercial paper issuance has surged back to levels last seen in 2006. What could be driving this renewed activity after nearly two decades? Tune in to learn more.   Key Takeaways: S. Core Consumer Price Index at 3.1% (YOY) ISM Service Survey reached 52.0 % 10-year bond yield at 4.01%

For the first time ever, French bond spreads are higher than those seen in Italy (both compared to Germany). This isn't just about "fiscal consolidation" worries and France's government budget, the real issue behind everything is economic differentials. Those need to be turned around and soon else France risks being the new, well, Italy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------NYT French Government Collapses, Again, Deepening Paralysishttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/08/world/europe/france-vote-government-collapse.htmlCNBC France's Macron names loyalist Lecornu as new prime ministerhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/09/france-macron-names-lecornu-new-prime-minister.htmlCNBC France's borrowing costs rise after Fitch downgrade — and there could be more bad news aheadhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/15/frances-borrowing-costs-rise-after-fitch-downgrade-.htmlBloomberg French Borrowing Costs Top Italy's in Historic Market Shifthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-09/french-borrowing-costs-top-italy-s-in-historic-market-shifthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Macro analyst Luke Gromen (FFTT) returns to Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell to explain why markets keep rising while Main Street struggles and why the “rules-based global order” is already over. We dig into: Whether the Fed will cut rates and the market reaction BRICS and the push toward gold settlement Is U.S. strategy to use stablecoins/Bitcoin to pay U.S. debt?  Rare-earth mineral chokepoints and China's leverage Fourth turning and political assassinations What it all means for Bitcoin, gold, bonds, and stocks ---- Coin Stories is powered by Gemini. Invest as you spend with the Gemini Credit Card. Sign up today to earn a $200 intro Bitcoin bonus. The Gemini Credit Card is issued by WebBank. See website for rates & fees. 10% back at golf courses is available until 9/30/2025 on up to $250 in spend per month. Learn more at https://www.gemini.com/natalie  ---- Coin Stories is powered by Bitwise. Bitwise has over $10B in client assets, 32 investment products, and a team of 100+ employees across the U.S. and Europe, all solely focused on Bitcoin and digital assets since 2017. Learn more at https://www.bitwiseinvestments.com  ---- Bitdeer Technologies Group ($BTDR) is a global leader in Bitcoin mining and high-performance computing for AI, with operations spanning four continents. Learn more at https://www.bitdeer.com ---- Natalie's Bitcoin Product and Event Links: For easy, low-cost, instant Bitcoin payments, I use Speed Lightning Wallet. Play Bitcoin trivia and win up to 1 million sats! Download and use promo code COINSTORIES10 for 5,000 free sats: https://www.speed.app/coinstories  Block's Bitkey Cold Storage Wallet was named to TIME's prestigious Best Inventions of 2024 in the category of Privacy & Security. Get 20% off using code STORIES at https://bitkey.world   Master your Bitcoin self-custody with 1-on-1 help and gain peace of mind with the help of The Bitcoin Way: https://www.thebitcoinway.com/natalie  Genius Group (NYSE: $GNS) is building a 10,000 BTC treasury and educating the world through the Genius Academy. Check out *free* courses from Saifedean Ammous and myself at https://www.geniusacademy.ai.  Earn passive Bitcoin income with industry-leading uptime, renewable energy, ideal climate, expert support, and one month of free hosting when you join Abundant Mines at https://www.abundantmines.com/natalie  Bitcoin 2026 will be here before you know it. Get 10% off Early Bird passes using the code HODL: https://tickets.b.tc/event/bitcoin-2026?promoCodeTask=apply&promoCodeInput=  Protect yourself from SIM Swaps that can hack your accounts and steal your Bitcoin. Join America's most secure mobile service, trusted by CEOs, VIPs and top corporations: https://www.efani.com/natalie   Your Bitcoin oasis awaits at Camp Nakamoto: A retreat for Bitcoiners, by Bitcoiners. Code HODL for discounted passes: https://massadoptionbtc.ticketspice.com/camp-nakamoto      ---- This podcast is for educational purposes and should not be construed as official investment advice. ---- VALUE FOR VALUE — SUPPORT NATALIE'S SHOWS Strike ID https://strike.me/coinstoriesnat/ Cash App $CoinStories #money #Bitcoin #investing

In the latest Market Signals podcast, LPL Research's Chief Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder and Head of Macro Strategy Kristian Kerr recap another strong week for the stock market, discuss the implications of rising global bond yields, and preview this week's much-anticipated Federal Reserve meeting. Tracking: #797148

Trader Masaya Okoshi and host Amar Reganti talk about the evolution and mechanics of bond market trading.2:55 – Bond trading, then and now5:40 – Price transparency vs ability to move risk7:30 – What is portfolio trading?9:35 – Hedging with credit ETFs11:05 – Technology: Does the limit exist?15:10 – Long-only vs long-short worlds Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this week's episode of the Coin Stories News Block powered exclusively by Ledn, we cover these major headlines related to Bitcoin, macroeconomics, and global finance: Fed under fire: Markets see a 96% chance of a .25% rate cut as Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pile pressure on Powell. Housing fragility exposed: FHA quietly props up 1.2M mortgages -- echoes of the 2008 crisis? Tether's U.S. play: The world's largest stablecoin launches a fully regulated dollar-backed token under the new GENIUS Act. Crypto IPO boom: Gemini and Figure soar in debut, while Nasdaq itself backs the Winklevoss twins. A personal note: Reflections on the tragic assassination of Charlie Kirk,and why money corruption drives deeper social division. --- The News Block is powered exclusively by Ledn – the global leader in Bitcoin-backed loans, issuing over $9 billion in loans since 2018, and they were the first to offer proof of reserves. With Ledn, you get custody loans, no credit checks, no monthly payments, and more. My followers get .25% off their first loan. Learn more at www.ledn.io/natalie  ---- Read every story in the News Block with visuals and charts! Join our mailing list and subscribe to our free Bitcoin newsletter: https://thenewsblock.substack.com  ---- References mentioned in the episode: Wall Street Journal Article on Mortgage Borrowers Payrolls Negative Revision Largest on Record Bessent's Tweet on Fed Driving Wealth Inequality Scott Bessent Op-Ed on Fed Independence Figure Technologies Enjoys Successful IPO Figure IPO Boosts Valuation to $7.6 Billion Gemini Soars in Latest IPO Market Win Nasdaq Invests $50 Million in Gemini Winklevoss-led Gemini Raises $425 Million in IPO Tether Slides on Company's Massive Growth  Bo Hines Appointed Head of Tether's U.S. Arm Tether Unveils New U.S.-Regulated USD Stablecoin Tether Announces the Launch of USAT Russian Advisor Talks About Gold & Crypto Putin's Advisor Warns of Crypto & Gold Conspiracy Bitwise CEO Tweets on $7.3T Money Market Funds $7.3 Trillion Cash Pile Could Fuel Bitcoin Rally  ---- Upcoming Events: Bitcoin 2026 will be here before you know it. Get 10% off Early Bird passes using the code HODL: https://tickets.b.tc/event/bitcoin-2026?promoCodeTask=apply&promoCodeInput=  Your Bitcoin oasis awaits at Camp Nakamoto: A retreat for Bitcoiners, by Bitcoiners. Code HODL for discounted passes: https://massadoptionbtc.ticketspice.com/camp-nakamoto      ---- This podcast is for educational purposes and should not be construed as official investment advice. ---- VALUE FOR VALUE — SUPPORT NATALIE'S SHOWS Strike ID https://strike.me/coinstoriesnat/ Cash App $CoinStories #money #Bitcoin #investing

In this compilation program, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero field a variety of finance and investment questions from callers across the United States and around the World.Today's Stocks & Topics: Strategy for a Potential Recession, Silver, I-R-A Rollover, Sitting on Cash, Earnings Forecast, Pros and Cons of 351 Exchange, Short-Term Rental Market, Cash Balance Plan, Retirement Saving Plans, How to Invest in the Bond Market, Dividend Reinvestment Plan, Retirement Accounts, Gains and Taxes, Financial Ratios.Our Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic: https://claude.ai/INVEST* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code INVEST for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.com* Check out Upwork: https://upwork.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

This week - what is rumbling in the bond market? Why have the prices of some government bonds been falling? What does it mean politically here in the UK and the US? What does it mean for stock markets and why does one group of individuals stand to gain from it? Host Ed Monk is joined by Tom Stevenson to a provide a well-balanced take on the latest financial developments together with expert insights to help you grow your capital, manage your investment portfolio and make the most of the money markets. Popular for its jargon-free approach, clear analysis and fresh perspective, The Personal Investor podcast helps shine a light on the latest market developments for the savvy UK investor.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Daily Market Update: Record Closes and Economic Revisions In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the record-high closes on the DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq, noting a significant boost in the last 30 minutes of trading. He reviews year-to-date market performance and the recent revision in non-farm payroll numbers, which saw a considerable downward adjustment. The episode also covers the unusual yield curve movements, expectations for potential Fed rate cuts, and upcoming economic indicators such as the PPI and CPI numbers. Additionally, small business optimism has ticked up, reflecting a more confident outlook. The bond market's reaction, particularly the decline in 10-year yields, is analyzed, indicating potential continued strength in long-duration investments. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 01:02 Employment Data and Revisions 02:24 Yield Curve and Interest Rates 03:20 Economic Indicators and Small Business Sentiment 03:59 Bond Market and Long Duration Investments 04:40 Conclusion and Upcoming Events Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In the latest Market Signals podcast, LPL Research's Chief Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder and Chief Fixed Income Strategist Lawrence Gillum share their updated thoughts on the bond market following Friday's soft jobs report, make a case that the current bull market still has legs, and preview the week ahead that includes key inflation data. Tracking: #793939

Global bond markets are under siege and CRE is caught in the crossfire.UK 30-year gilt yields surged to their highest level since 1998, and volatility in U.S. Treasuries has repeatedly brushed them against 5%.For commercial real estate, that means more expensive debt, climbing cap rates and global investors second-guessing allocations.Christopher Stanley, banking industry practice lead at Moody's Analytics, said the tightness of the spread shows increased competition in the market, but the entire yield curve has moved up considerably.That's going to hit net operating income, and Stanley said staying on top of liquidity and forecasting out volatility all the way through the life cycle of the project have become crucial.“When we're in a nervous economy like we're in right now, everyone immediately jumps to what kind of credit problems are there going to be,” Stanley said on the show. “Credit is a part of it, but we're really playing a balance sheet management game.”

Manpreet and Ray discuss the impact of bond market volatility on risk assets. They share their perspectives on why they believe there is limited upside to long-term bond yields from current levels, as well as the yield levels at which they would consider adding to bonds. Additionally, they discuss how investors should position themselves in equities, particularly in Chinese equities during pullbacks, and conclude with insights on gold. Find out more from our latest Weekly Market Outlook report here. Speakers:  - Manpreet Gill, CIO of Africa, Middle East & Europe (AME/E) and Head of Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) Strategy, Standard Chartered Bank - Ray Heung, Senior Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank 

John Batchelor 09-03 segment 9.mp3 Guest: Brett Arends of Market Watch (Return on Investment). Bond Market Anxiety and Federal Reserve Pressures Brett Arends explains the bond market's current unhappiness stems from unsustainable national debt and uncertainty surrounding President Trump's tariffs. He clarifies that the Fedcontrols short-term rates, while the bond market sets long-term rates. Arends warns that Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut short-term rates could paradoxically cause long-term rates, including mortgage rates, to rise, hurting the economy and exacerbating market nervousness. He emphasizes the need for fiscal sustainability. 1947 DEMOCRACY SQUARE

John Batchelor 09-03 segment 10.mp3 Guest: Brett Arends of Market Watch. Addressing Bond Market Turmoil Brett Arends explains that the troubled bond market stems from unsustainable national debt and recent court rulings questioning President Trump's tariffs. He advises Donald Trump to support Federal Reserve independence, abandon attacks on Jerome Powell and Lisa Cook, and work with Congress on tariffs to ensure fiscal sustainability and calm market anxieties. Arends notes that gold's all-time high reflects a lack of market confidence. PEKING UNIVERSITY

Thierry Wizman sees a “generally lackluster labor market,” reacting to the ADP report this morning and previewing tomorrow's jobs report. He argues that the Fed will probably still cut rates this month, anticipating the unemployment rate ticking higher as hiring slows. “There's an underlying tone of inflation” that hasn't been reflected in CPI data yet, Thierry adds. He thinks the Fed will approach with caution, cutting only 25 basis points rather than the 50 some hope for. If tariffs are reversed, Thierry expects unease in the bond market.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

► If you enjoyed the episode, please leave us a good review!► More from PIF: https://linktr.ee/practicalislamicfinanceMarket Opportunities AboundIn this episode, we will cover:Market Recap: Indices Drop, Crypto RisesWhy Risk-Off May Be an OpportunitySolana's Setup: ETFs & Treasury FlowsComparing Ethereum's Rise to Solana's OutlookSolana's Alpenglow Upgrade Boosts SpeedInstitutions Favor ETH, Small Players Favor SOLIOS Energy: First Profitable YearPivot to AI Cloud Services ExplainedFinancials Breakdown: Revenue & MarginsIron's Valuation & Entry ConcernsQ&A: Solar Sector, Bond Market, Gold & BitcoinLithium & PLL Merger OutlookCONTACT USsalam@practicalislamicfinace.comABOUT OUR PODCASTOur podcast is about helping people ethically build wealth. We cover a broad range of topics, including stock and crypto investing, product reviews, and general financial well-being.

The United States Federal Reserve will hold a conference next month on "payments innovation," which will include discussions around stablecoin business models and the tokenization of financial products and services. The conference will take place on Tuesday, Oct. 21, and bring together a range of interested parties to discuss how to innovate and improve the payments system.~This Episode is sponsored by SALT & iTrust Capital~Borrow on SALT Now! ➜https://bit.ly/pbnsaltiTrustCapital | Get $100 Funding Reward + No Monthly Fees when you sign up using our custom link! ➜ https://bit.ly/iTrustPaul00:00 Intro00:10 Sponsor: SALT00:50 October 2101:45 PayPal crypto unlock03:00 Fear and greed reset03:50 Gold is telling the future05:30 CNBC: Bad September?08:30 Tariff revenue09:00 Bond Market crushed09:15 Trump heads to Supreme Court for tariffs10:40 Fed. Gov. Waller on rate cuts12:20 Unemployment vs job openings13:20 Polymarket15:00 Sponsor: iTrust Capital15:30 ONDO tokenized stocks16:30 Tom Lee: ETH $60K17:45 Shorts will get wrecked18:45 Joe Rogan Rumors19:50 Why you need crypto20:30 Outro#Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum~Federal Reserve Crypto Conference Coming

Stocks returned to steadier ground.

Stocks move away from record levels.

Markets are trying to regain recent record breaking momentum.

In this compilation program, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero field a variety of finance and investment questions from callers across the United States and around the World.Today's Stocks & Topics: Strategy for a Potential Recession, Silver, I-R-A Rollover, Sitting on Cash, Earnings Forecast, Pros and Cons of 351 Exchange, Short-Term Rental Market, Cash Balance Plan, Retirement Saving Plans, How to Invest in the Bond Market, Dividend Reinvestment Plan, Retirement Accounts, Gains and Taxes, Financial Ratios.Our Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://www.avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code INVEST for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.com* Check out Upwork: https://upwork.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

Two-year Treasury yields set a new almost-year low, falling below their prior April chaos lows. The yield curve is undergoing a profound reshaping that explains a lot more than Jay Powell's Jackson Hole performance. It also perfectly indicates what long-run interest rates are also doing as well as likely to do moving forward.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Goldman Sachs Says US Yield-Curve Shape Looks Like Zero-Rate Erahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-06/goldman-sachs-says-us-yield-curve-shape-looks-like-zero-rate-erahttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

In this episode, founder of The Macro Compass Alfonso Peccatiello breaks down the clash between Trump's political influence on the Fed, the reality of U.S. fiscal policy, and how to think about global markets at this moment in time. We also dig into forward rate pricing, the TGA rebuild, and the role of commodities and crypto in a world of loose monetary and fiscal policy. Enjoy! __ Follow Alf: https://x.com/MacroAlf  Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance  Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx  Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance  __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london  __ This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):  http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):  vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:42) What's Happening with Monetary Policy? (07:46) What Fed Risk is the Market Pricing? (10:55) Bond Market & Fiscal Tightening (13:54) Understanding Changing Fiscal Impulse (14:51) VanEck Ad (15:34) Understanding Changing Fiscal Impulse (19:46) QE vs Fiscal Deficits (24:41) Impact of TGA Rebuild (29:27) Signal for Average Macro Traders (30:04) VanEck Ad (35:05) Investing in High Inflation & Growth (36:59) European Markets (40:31) US Dollar & Emerging Markets (43:54) Commodities Outlook (47:03) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week's show covers the evolving landscape in fixed income, international developed market stocks, delaying Social Security, and over 50 catch-up secrets for saving.

Continuing the summer series, The Bid brings back some of the best episodes from the last year. Oscar's final pick is unpacking the meaning and the power of capital markets.Capital markets are a powerful force in the global financial landscape. These markets connect long-term savings with productive uses of capital. Driving innovation, growth and job creation. But what are capital markets and how will they contribute to long-term global economic development?Samara Cohen, chief Investment Officer of ETF and Index Investments at BlackRock joins host Oscar Pulido to explore the key differences in capital market growth strategies between mature and emerging markets, how capital markets help in mobilizing investment, and the role of regulatory frameworks and market innovation in ensuring their effective functioning.Sources: “The Virtuous Cycle: The Global Potential Of Capital Markets” BlackRock, 2025Original episode aired May 9th 2025

Is the 60/40 portfolio living up to its reputation of resilience this year? The merit of a classic portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds has been a matter of debate in recent years. A diversified 60/40 strategy failed to protect investors in 2022's broad market crash—in fact, an all-stock portfolio would have held up better. However, a historical deep dive from Morningstar concluded that the tried-and-true approach lessened the pain in almost all of the worst market crashes in 150 years better than an all-stock portfolio. Morningstar Inc Portfolio Strategist Amy Arnott discusses the 60/40 portfolio's ups and downs and its performance in 2025.On this episode:What is a 60/40 portfolio, and why is it popular? We often hear claims that the 60/40 portfolio is “dead” or obsolete. Why does it get criticized so much? Some of that criticism flared up in 2022. Why was the performance so bad for the 60/40 portfolio that year? Volatility has rocked the markets in 2025. How has the classic investment strategy done so far this year? Are there any asset classes that have performed better so far in 2025? Why? And which ones have struggled? Interest rates are sitting above 4%, but market watchers are anticipating the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September. What could that mean for the fixed-income part of the 60/40 portfolio? How do you think the 60/40 portfolio will perform over the next few years? Should people still rely on the 60/40 portfolio, or is another strategy better like the 70/30 or 50/30/20, which can be a mix of stocks, bonds, and alternatives? The tried-and-true strategy has proved its worth. So, what's the final takeaway for current retirees, future retirees, or anyone seeking less risk?Read about topics from this episode.  The 60/40 Portfolio: A 150-Year Markets Stress TestIs the 60/40 Portfolio Feeling '22?What We've Learned From 150 Years of Stock Market CrashesHow Does Your 60/40 Portfolio Allocation Compare With the Pros?Why 2025 Is the Year to Invest in International StocksWhy It's Not Too Late to Add International ExposureWhy Holding Assets Outside the US Dollar Has Paid Off in 2025How to Use Gold in Your PortfolioPortfolio Diversification Is Winning in 2025 What to watch from Morningstar. These 16 Standout Funds Are Making Big Bets. Do They Fit in Your Investment Portfolio?Market Volatility: Investors Are Seeking Safety in Gold ETFs. Is It Working?Why Bonds Belong in Your Diversified Portfolio (Even Now)Covered-Call ETFs Are Booming. But Not All Yield Is Good Read what our team is writing.Amy ArnottIvanna Hampton Follow us on social media.Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/X: https://x.com/MorningstarIncInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar... LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/5161/

Liz Ann Sonders and Kathy Jones discuss the implications of the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole meeting, focusing on monetary policy, labor market dynamics, housing market challenges, and the impact of tariffs on inflation. They explore how these factors influence economic indicators and the Fed's decision-making process moving forward. Then, Cooper Howard, director and fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, joins the show to discuss the state of the muni bond market and where there might be opportunities for investors. He and Kathy cover why munis have underperformed other parts of the fixed income market this year; the attractiveness of high-yield, or "junk," muni bonds; investing in individual bonds versus mutual funds or ETFs; and much more.Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann discuss the data and economic indicators they will be watching in the coming week.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Tax-exempt bonds are not necessarily a suitable investment for all persons. Information related to a security's tax-exempt status (federal and in-state) is obtained from third parties, and Schwab does not guarantee its accuracy. Tax-exempt income may be subject to the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). Capital appreciation from bond funds and discounted bonds may be subject to state or local taxes. Capital gains are not exempt from federal income tax.Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.This information is not a specific recommendation, individualized tax, legal, or investment advice. Tax laws are subject to change, either prospectively or retroactively. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, individuals should contact their own professional tax and investment advisors or other professionals (CPA, Financial Planner, Investment Manager, Estate Attorney) to help answer questions about specific situations or needs prior to taking any action based upon this information.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.(0825-1W97)

Today, we look at an unremarkable US equity market session while we continue to watch for signs of trouble after recent divergences and shifts in the internals. A key focus today on very long bond yields rising to cycle highs, especially dangerous for the UK with its external deficits - when does the penny drop for the pound? Meanwhile, the very low volatility across asset markets belies the spring loaded risks from the next policy choices should bonds come under additional pressure. Some great links today on Meta, the US mid-terms, and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market Update and PPI Data Insights - Dividend Cafe Daily Recap Host David Bahnsen fills in for Brian Szytel to deliver a daily market update. Despite some intraday movements, the market indices closed flat, with the DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ showing negligible changes. The 10-year yield rose to 4.28%, driven by a surprising 0.9% increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the month. Goods prices remained low, while services saw more significant movement. The episode teases a deeper analysis on inflation and related data points, set to be discussed in the weekly Dividend Cafe commentary. Additional updates include a 2% rise in oil prices and stable initial jobless claims at 224,000. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:17 Market Indices Performance 00:40 Bond Market and PPI Impact 01:58 Upcoming Dividend Cafe Insights 02:41 Additional Data Points 03:18 Conclusion and Sign-Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Although tariff negotiations continue, deals are being made, shifting investor focus on assessing the fallout. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen consider the ripple effects on inflation and the bond market. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist. Michael Zezas: Today, how are tariffs impacting the economy and what it means for bond markets? It's Wednesday, August 13th at 10:30am in New York. Michael, we've been talking about how the near-term uncertainty around tariff levels has come down. Tariff deals are, of course, still pending with some major U.S. trading partners like China; but agreements are starting to come together. And though there's lots of ways they could break over time, in the near-term, deals like the one with Europe signal that the U.S. might be happy for several months with what's been arranged. And so, the range of outcomes has shrunk. The U.S.' current effective tariff rate of 16 percent is about where we thought we'd be at year end. But that's substantially higher than the roughly 3 percent we started the year with. So, not as bad as it looked like it could have been after tariffs were announced on April 2nd, but still substantially higher. Now's the time when investors should stay away from chasing tariff headlines and guessing what the President might do next; and instead focus on assessing the impact of what's been done. With that as the backdrop, we got some relevant data yesterday, the Consumer Price Index for July. You were expecting that this would show some clear signs of tariffs pushing prices higher. Why was that? Michael Gapen: Well, we did analysis on the 2018-2019 tariff episode. So, in looking at the input-output tables, which give you an idea of how prices move through certain sectors of the economy, and applying that to the 2018 episode of tariffs – we got the result that you should see some tariff inflation in June, and then sequentially more as we move into the late summer and the early fall. So, the short answer, Mike, is a model based plus history-based exercise – that said yes, we should start seeing the effects of tariffs on those categories, where the direct effect is high. So that'd be most of your goods categories. Over time, as we move into later this year or early next year, it'll be more important to think about indirect effects, if any. Michael Zezas: Got it. So, the July CPI data that came out yesterday, then did it corroborate this view? Michael Gapen: Yes and no. So, I'm an economist, so I have to do a two-handed view on this. So yes… Michael Zezas: Always fair. Michael Gapen: Always, yes. So, yes, core goods prices rose by two-tenths on the month, in June they also rose by two-tenths. Prior to this goods' prices were largely flat with some of the big durables, items like autos being negative, right? So, we had all the give back following COVID. So, the prior trend was flat to negative. The last two months, they've shown two-tenths increases. And we've seen upward pressure on things like household furnishings, apparel. We saw a strong used car print this month, motor vehicle and repairs. So, all of that suggests that tariffs are starting to flow through. Now, we didn't – on the other hand – is we didn't get as much as we thought. New car prices were flat and maybe those price increases will be delayed until models – the 2026 models start hitting the lot. That would be September or later. And we didn't actually; I said apparel. Apparel was up stronger last month. It really wasn't up all that much this month. So, the CPI data for July corroborated the view that the inflation pass through is happening. Where I think it didn't answer the question is how much of it are we going to get and should we expect a lot of it to be front loaded? Or is this going to be a longer process? Michael Zezas: Got it. And then, does that mean that tariffs aren't having the sort of aggregate impact on the economy that many thought they would? Or is maybe the composition of that impact different? So, maybe prices aren't going up so much, but companies are managing those costs in other ways. How would you break that down? Michael Gapen: We would say, and our view is that, yes, you know, we have written down a forecast. And we used our modeling in the 2018-20 19 episode to tell us what's a reasonable forecast for how quickly and to what degree these tariffs should show up in inflation. But obviously, this has been a substantial move in tariffs. They didn't start all at once. They've come in different phases and there's a lot of lags here. So, I just think there's a wide range of potential outcomes here. So, I wouldn't conclude that tariffs are not having the effect we thought they would. I think it's way too early and would be incorrect to conclude, just [be]cause we've had relatively modest tariff pressures in June and July, inflation that we can be sanguine and say it's not a big deal and we should just move on.Michael Zezas: And even so, is it fair to say that there's still plenty of evidence that this is weighing on growth in the way you anticipated? Michael Gapen: I think so. I mean, it's clear the economy has moderated. If we kind of strip out the volatility and trade and inventories, final sales to domestic purchasers 1.5 in the first quarter. It was 1.1 in the second quarter, and a lot of that slowdown was related to spending by the consumer. And a slowdown in business spending. So that that could be a little more, maybe about policy uncertainty and not knowing exactly what to do and how to plan. But it also we think is reflected in a slowdown, in the pace of hiring. So, I would say, you got the policy uncertainty shock first. That also came through the effect of the April 2nd Liberation Day tariffs, which probably caused a freeze in hiring and spending activity for a bit. And now I would say we're moving into the part of the world where the actual increase in tariffs are going to happen. So, we'll know whether or not firms can pass these prices along or not. If they can't, we'll probably get a weaker labor market. If they can, we'll continue to see it in inflation.But Mike, let me ask you a question now. You've had all the fun. Let me turn the table. Michael Zezas: Fair enough. Michael Gapen: How much does it matter for you or your team, whether or not these tariffs are pushing prices higher? And/or delaying cuts from the Fed. How do you think about that on your side? Michael Zezas: Yeah, so this question of composition and lags is really interesting. I think though that if the end state here is as you forecast – that we'll end up with weaker growth, and as a consequence, the Fed will embark on a substantial rate cutting program. Then the direction of travel for bond yields from here is still lower. So, if that's the case, then obviously this would be a favorable backdrop for owners of U.S. treasury bonds. It's probably also good news for owners of corporate credit, but the story's a bit trickier here. If yields move lower on weaker growth, but we ultimately avoid a recession, this might be the sweet spot for corporate credit. You've got fundamental strength holding that limits credit risk, and so you get performance from all in yields declining – both the yield expressed by the risk-free rate, as well as the credit spread. But if we tipped into recession, then naturally we'd expect there to be a repricing of all risk in the market. You'd expect there to be some expression of fundamental weakness and credit spreads would widen. So, government bonds would've been a better product to own in that environment.But, of course, Michael, we have to consider alternative outcomes where yields go higher, and this would turn into a bad environment for bond returns that would appear to be most likely in the scenario where U.S. growth actually ticks higher, resetting expectations for monetary policy in a more hawkish direction.So, what do you think investors should watch for that would lead to that outcome? Is it something like an AI productivity boom or maybe something else that's not on our radar? Michael Gapen: Yeah, so I think that is something investors do have to think about; and let me frame one way to think about that – where ex-post any easing by the Fed as early as September might be retroactively viewed as a policy mistake, right? So, we can say, yes, tariffs should slow down growth and maybe that happens in the second half of this year. The Fed maybe eases rates as a pre-emptive measure or risk management approach to avoid too much weakness in the labor market. So even though the Fed is seeing firming inflation now, which it is. It could ease in September, maybe again in December [be]cause it's worried about the labor market. So maybe that's what dominates 2025. And, and like you said, perhaps in the very near term, continues to pull bond prices lower. But what if we get into 2026 and the tariff effect or the tariff drag on growth fades, and the consumer begins to accelerate. So, we don't have a recession, we just get a bit of a divot in growth and then the economy recovers. Then fiscal policy kicks in, right? We don't think the One Big, Beautiful Bill act will provide a lot of stimulus, but we could be wrong. It could kickstart animal spirits and bring forward a lot of business spending. And then maybe AI, as you said; that could be a combining factor and financial conditions would be very easy in that world, in part – given that the Fed has eased, right? So that that could be a world where, you know, growth is modest, but it's firming. Inflation that's moved up to about 3 percent or maybe a little bit higher later this year kind of stays there. And then retroactively, the problem is the Fed eased financial conditions into that and inflation's kind of stuck around 3 percent. Bond yields – at least the long end – would probably react negatively in that world. Michael Zezas: Yeah, that makes perfect sense to us. Well, Michael, thanks for taking the time to talk with me. Michael Gapen: Thanks for having me on, Mike. Michael Zezas: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

Learn how ex-dividend dates determine which shareholders receive dividend payments by explaining the relationship between the record date, ex-dividend date, and how ownership timing affects dividend entitlement in stock investing. Today's Stocks & Topics: MO - Altria Group Inc., Market Wrap, MET - Metlife Inc., FIX - Comfort Systems USA Inc., How to Invest in the Bond Market, Understanding Ex-Dividend Dates: When Are You Entitled to Stock and Cash Dividends?, ASPI - ASP Isotopes Inc., BTC - Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF, CORT - Corcept Therapeutics Inc., SKX - Skechers U S A Inc., BKE - Buckle Inc., EMN - Eastman Chemical Co.Our Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://www.avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out Ka'Chava and use my code INVEST for a great deal: https://www.kachava.com* Check out Mint Mobile: https://mintmobile.com/INVESTTALK* Check out Progressive: https://www.progressive.com* Check out Upwork: https://upwork.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

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