Podcast appearances and mentions of Robert Merton

Sociologin blev viktig för att förstå samhället under de snabba samhällsomvandlingarna i Norden på 1960-talet. Sociologin bröt med den tidigare dominerande elitens konservatism och nationalromantik.Erik Allardt (1925–2020) var en av Nordens mest inflytelserika sociologer. Genom sina empiriska studier om klass, språk och social integration formade han sociologin i Norden. Han intresserade sig bland annat för varför småbrukare i vissa områden blev kommunister.I podden Historia Nu samtalar programledaren Urban Lindstedt med Jan Sundberg, professor emeritus i allmän statslära vid Helsingfors universitet, om Erik Allardts betydelse för nordisk sociologi, hans forskning om finlandssvenskar och kommunismen i Finland. Jan Sundberg medverkar i antologin Erik Allardt och den moderna sociologins genombrott.Erik Allardt föddes i Helsingfors i en bildad borgerlig familj och doktorerade 1952 vid Helsingfors universitet med en avhandling om skilsmässofrekvenser och deras socioekonomiska orsaker. Som professor i sociologi (1958–1990) utbildade han generationer av finländska sociologer och hade nära kontakter med internationella forskare som Seymour Martin Lipset och Robert Merton.Allardt studerade kommunistiska rörelser i Finland, särskilt "ödemarkskommunism" i glesbefolkade områden. I Social struktur och politisk aktivitet (1956) använde han empiriska metoder för att analysera varför vissa grupper drogs till kommunismen. Hans forskning om kommunism undersökte hur klass, utbildning och ekonomi påverkade politiska preferenser och utgjorde en viktig grund för senare studier om politiska rörelser i Norden.Hans studier av finlandssvenskar, ofta i samarbete med andra forskare, belyste språkminoritetens sociala och ekonomiska position. I Språkgränser och samhällsstruktur (1981) analyserade han den finlandssvenska befolkningen ur ett jämförande europeiskt perspektiv, vilket blev en milstolpe inom minoritetsforskningen. Han undersökte hur språklig och kulturell tillhörighet påverkade finlandssvenskarnas sociala och ekonomiska situation och visade att gruppen var heterogen samt att språkets status förändrades över tid.Hans studier om minoriteter och politiska rörelser är fortsatt aktuella i diskussioner om identitet, nationalism och social sammanhållning. Genom sitt arbete bidrog han både till akademisk forskning och samhällsdebatten i Finland och Norden.Allardts arbete har haft en bestående påverkan på sociologin och samhällsvetenskapen i Finland och Norden. Hans kombination av empiriska data och teoretisk analys inspirerade flera generationer av forskare. Hans teori om välfärd används fortfarande för att förstå livskvalitet och social hållbarhet.Bild: Valaffisch från kommunvalet i Finland från Demokratiska Förbundet för Finlands Folk (DFFF) 1945. Kommunisterna var mycket starka i Finland efter kriget med tvåsiffriga röstandelar. Sociologen Erik Allardt intresserade sig för varför kommunisterna hade så stort folkligt stöd i Finland. Källa: Finlands Riksarkiv, Finna.fi. Public Domain.Musik: Internationalen med Aage Nielsens orkster; 1934, Internet Archive, Public Domain.Lyssna också på Dödslägren efter finska inbördeskriget.Klippare: Emanuel Lehtonen Vill du stödja podden och samtidigt höra ännu mer av Historia Nu? Gå med i vårt gille genom att klicka här: https://plus.acast.com/s/historianu-med-urban-lindstedt. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode, Paul Tyler and Bruno Caron welcome back Arun Muralidhar, co-founder of Alpha Engine Global Investment Solutions, to explore "SeLFIES" (Standard of Living Indexed, Forward-starting, Income-only Securities), an innovative retirement solution he developed with Nobel laureate Robert Merton. Arun delves into Brazil's successful implementation of “SeLFIES”, which has attracted 105,000 investors and raised $2.8 billion since January 2023. The conversation highlights an approach to retirement planning that focuses on guaranteed monthly income rather than wealth accumulation, addresses the potential shortcomings of current retirement statements and target date funds, and explores potential implementations in other countries like India and the UK. Arun also discusses complementary innovations such as education bonds and using QR codes for retirement contributions, while emphasizing how these instruments could help address gender equity in retirement savings. For those interested in learning more about this groundbreaking approach to retirement security, Arun can be followed on LinkedIn:  Listen to the full episode: thatannuityshow.com

In today's episode, Cameron sits down with Mark McGrath to talk about his trip to Trondheim, Norway, the event he attended there, and his presentation in which he shared top lessons from prestigious Rational Reminder Podcast guests. Tuning in, you'll hear Cameron's top takeaways from conversations with Nobel laureate Eugene Fama and his collaborator Kenneth French, as well as Robert Merton, Antti Ilmanen, Professor Ludovic Phalippou, and more. We also delve into the changing industry trends regarding index investing and the many benefits that come with embracing it, including how it helps financial advisors better serve their clients. Stay tuned for our after-show section, where we discuss advice for new advisors, from developing a robust investment philosophy to building a network, along with insights to help consumers navigate the industry and much more. To learn all about Cameron's trip to Norway, top guest takeaways, and industry trends around index investing, be sure to tune in!   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:01:13) An overview of today's episode and a discussion on industry trends. (0:03:56) Our conversation with Håkon Kavli on managing Reitan Kapital. (0:04:38) What it was like for Cameron to meet Håkon Kavli and Magnus Reitan in Norway. (0:05:42) The excellent event in Trondheim, Norway, and their impressive lineup of speakers. (0:08:56) Unpacking industry trends in index investing and why more people are embracing it. (0:09:42) The light bulb moment for Mark and Cameron regarding index investing. (0:19:07) Highlights from our interviews with Eugene Fama, Ken French, and Robert Merton. (0:25:28) Dr. Annamaria Lusardi's insights and takeaways from our John Cochrane interview. (0:29:05) Top lessons from our conversation with Antti Ilmanen on low-expected returns. (0:30:58) Insights from talking with Professor Ludovic Phalippou about private equity. (0:32:22) Closing thoughts on Cameron's presentation in Norway and index investing trends. (0:39:44) Our aftershow segment: advice for new advisors, ways the industry has changed, tips for consumers, technology insights, personal updates, and more.   Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://x.com/RationalRemindRational Reminder on TikTok — www.tiktok.com/@rationalreminder Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://x.com/MarkMcGrathCFP Episode 321: Evidence in Practice with Håkon Kavli – https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/321 Professor Marcos López de Prado — https://www.orie.cornell.edu/faculty-directory/marcos-lopez-de-prado Erik Hilde — https://www.linkedin.com/in/erik-hilde-9570a785/?originalSubdomain=no Dan Bortolotti — https://www.canadianmoneysaver.ca/authors/dan-bortolotti Canadian Couch Potato Blog — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/ Canadian Couch Potato Podcast — https://canadiancouchpotato.com/podcast/ Justin Bender — https://www.linkedin.com/in/justin-bender-cfa-cfp%C2%AE-tep-195b8b27/?originalSubdomain=ca Episode 200: Prof. Eugene Fama — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/200 Tune Out the Noise — https://www.dimensional.com/film Episode 100: Prof. Kenneth French — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/100 Episode 234: Prof. Robert C. Merton — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/234 Episode 232: Dr. Annamaria Lusardi — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/232 Episode 169: Prof. John Cochrane — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/169 Episode 202: Antti Ilmanen – https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/202 Episode 210: Prof. Ludovic Phalippou — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/210 Fama and French Three Factor Model — https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/famaandfrenchthreefactormodel.asp Books From Today's Episode: Investing Amid Low Expected Returns — http://www.aqr.com/serenity The Empowered Investor — https://www.amazon.ca/Empowered-Investor-Canadian-Investment-Experience/dp/0991978307  

En este episodio del podcast Mi Yo Futuro, Diego Valero entrevista al laureado con el Premio Nobel de Economía, Robert Merton. Durante la conversación, Merton aborda varios aspectos clave de los sistemas de pensiones y la jubilación. Merton comienza explicando los desafíos principales que enfrentan los sistemas de jubilación, como la necesidad de garantizar un flujo de ingresos adecuado durante los años de retiro en un contexto de longevidad creciente. Señala que el problema radica en que las personas viven más tiempo, lo cual es positivo, pero genera incertidumbre sobre cómo sostener su seguridad financiera. Ofrece cuatro estrategias para mejorar los ingresos en la jubilación: ahorrar más, trabajar por más tiempo, asumir más riesgos en la inversión (aunque advierte sobre las consecuencias reales del riesgo) y maximizar los ingresos mediante productos financieros como las anualidades y las hipotecas inversas. Merton también introduce su concepto de "bonos de seguridad de jubilación" (RSB), diseñados específicamente para proporcionar un flujo estable de ingresos durante la jubilación, con protección contra la inflación y cambios en el nivel de vida. Discute cómo estos bonos difieren de los tradicionales, ya que no generan pagos hasta que comienzan a producir una renta regular en la fecha de retiro estipulada. Un tema central en la entrevista es su propuesta de redefinir el riesgo en términos de estabilidad de ingresos en lugar de valor de los activos. A lo largo de la conversación, Merton enfatiza la importancia de enfoques más precisos y personalizados en las finanzas, lo que él llama "finanzas de precisión", similar a la medicina personalizada. Este enfoque se centra en adaptar soluciones financieras a las necesidades individuales, optimizando así los recursos disponibles. Además, Merton señala la importancia de las políticas públicas en el fortalecimiento de los sistemas de pensiones, abogando por un enfoque integrado que combine diversos componentes como la seguridad social efectiva, planes de contribución definidos, incentivos al ahorro y productos innovadores como los RSB. También menciona la importancia de políticas que permitan a las personas mayores trabajar más tiempo de manera productiva. Finalmente, Merton reflexiona sobre su futuro, destacando que seguirá trabajando en la resolución de problemas globales a través de la ingeniería financiera, ya que su trabajo es para él un placer y no una obligación. Este diálogo ofrece una visión profunda sobre los retos actuales y futuros de los sistemas de jubilación y las soluciones innovadoras que se están explorando para afrontarlos.

Designing a robust portfolio requires considerable expertise, data, and experience. And while there are plenty of published articles that can guide how you build your portfolio, they are not investment solutions by themselves. Wei Dai is the Head of Investment Research and Vice President at Dimensional Fund Advisors, and she joins us today for a comprehensive and informative conversation on portfolio design for higher returns. Her background includes a Doctor of Philosophy degree in Statistics, Operations research, and Financial Engineering from Princeton. She has also earned a bachelor's degree in mathematics and applied mathematics from Zhejiang University. Her work has been published in multiple journals, including The Financial Analysts Journal. She has also collaborated on articles with esteemed figures such as Professor Robert C. Merton and Robert Novy-Marx. In our conversation with Wei, we explore the contents of these articles, key findings from research conducted by Dimensional Fund Advisors, and how they are implementing this knowledge in their portfolios. We discuss the fundamental aspects of portfolio design, like expected return, risk, and costs, with Wei providing a detailed breakdown of each subject. There's a lot to be learned from today's conversation, and while things get pretty technical, you are in very capable hands! Tune in for a fascinating dive into the latest research on portfolio design and much more.   Key Points From This Episode:   (0:03:37) The main risk premiums that Dimensional Fund Advisors target in their portfolios. (0:05:42) How long-term drivers of returns vary across different regions: an overview of the tests and outcomes they've seen at Dimensional Fund Advisors. (0:07:15) Unpacking whether the value premium differs from the profitability premium across regions; why it makes sense to be globally diversified. (0:08:57) Typical approaches to a multi-premium strategy in a portfolio: a rundown of the three approaches they take at Dimensional and the trade-offs between each. (0:13:44) How they evaluate portfolios at Dimenstional: the benefits of taking a holistic, integrated approach, and instances where that doesn't make sense. (0:17:24) Weighting schemes: Dimensional's approach to assigning individual security weights to achieve the desired level of exposure and how investments factor into weights. (0:26:46) Advice on how investors should decide whether to currency hedge their foreign asset exposures, and insights on how to approach currency hedging. (0:30:42) Premium timing: Why timing exposure to premiums is so tempting; parameters that must be defined to implement timing strategies; and which strategies worked in their research. (0:39:21) Valuation ratios: why it theoretically makes sense that they would be related to differences in expected returns and why they aren't useful in timing premiums. (0:42:11) An overview of the main implications for pursuing premiums that arise from Dimensional's research. (0:44:10) Diversification and how to improve your odds of capturing return premiums. (0:46:38) The tradeoff between concentration and expected returns, and defining the optimal balance. (0:49:06) What investors should look for when choosing a systematic investment manager, why not all systematic strategies are created equal, and Dimemsional's approach. (0:52:52) The downsides of performance fees, specifically for systematic managers and what it was like writing a paper with Robert Merton. (0:57:41) How short-term reversals differ from momentum, ways that reversals are related to liquidity, and how reversals vary across different stocks. (01:03:12) The ways that Dimensional is implementing this knowledge in their portfolios; how their ideas go from research to publication to implementation. (01:08:18) What sets Dimensional apart, and the value that they add, despite their research being available online.   Links From Today's Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/  Benjamin on X — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on X — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Wei Dai on Linkedin — https://www.linkedin.com/in/wei-dai-64a3071a/ Wei Dai's Academic Papers — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=2888456 Dimensional Fund Advisors — https://www.dimensional.com/ Episode 234: Prof. Robert C. Merton — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/234   Papers From Today's Episode:  Assessing the Relative Magnitude of Premiums — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3981766 Pursuing Multiple Premiums: Combination vs. Integration — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3793594 Weighting for the Right One: Weighting Scheme Design for Systematic Equity Portfolios — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4016481 To Hedge or Not to Hedge: A Framework for Currency Hedging Decisions in Global Equity & Fixed Income Portfolios — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3703333 Another Look at Timing the Equity Premiums — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4586684 Premium Timing with Valuation Ratios How Diversification Impacts Investment Outcomes: A Case Study on Global Large Caps How Diversification Impacts the Reliability of Outcomes — https://carlsoncap.com/wp-content/uploads/DFA_-How-Diversification-Impacts-the-Reliability-of-Outcomes.pdf  On the Valuation of Performance Fees and Their Impact on Asset Managers' Incentives — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3686987 Reversals and the returns to liquidity provision — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4339591

Comment expliquer qu'on ne voit pas de femmes scientifiques dans les manuels d'histoires, ni dans les palmarès ? Elles étaient pourtant nombreuses. Ce phénomène s'appelle l'effet Matilda. Il est attribué à l'historienne américaine Margaret Rossiter, qui l'a théorisé dans les années 80 et officiellement proposé en 1993 dans la revue Social Studies of Science.  Rossiter observe que les femmes scientifiques, malgré leurs découvertes majeures, sont souvent ignorées et que le mérite revient systématiquement aux hommes. À l'origine, Rossiter s'est inspirée de la théorie de Robert Merton, un sociologue américain des années 60, qui a conceptualisé l'"effet Mathieu". Ce dernier décrit les mécanismes par lesquels les scientifiques et les institutions les plus éminents maintiennent leur domination, reléguant souvent les contributions des femmes à l'arrière-plan, malgré leur implication significative dans la recherche. Pourquoi avoir choisi le nom Matilda ? A-t-on des exemples de femmes oubliées pour leurs découvertes scientifiques ? Comment les reconnaître ? Un podcast Bababam Originals, écrit et réalisé par Pauline Weiss. À écouter aussi : Qu'est-ce que l'effet Matthieu, qui explique les inégalités de richesse ? Les femmes sont-elles vraiment plus émotives que les hommes ? Pourquoi les droits des femmes reculent-ils dans le monde ? Retrouvez tous les épisodes de "Maintenant vous savez". Suivez Bababam sur Instagram. Date de première publication : 8 mars 2021 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's hard to believe, but today's episode marks our fifth annual year-in-review episode — where we look back at some of our favourite conversations and takeaways from the past year! If there's one overarching theme that stood out amongst our guests in 2023 it would be the power of purposeful decision-making to impact our future selves. Tuning in, you'll hear our guests' remarkable views on the topic, from the power of regret when it comes to long-term decisions to the ‘hidden partner' that accompanies us in all our decision-making. Another key theme that emerged is how the role of financial advisors is evolving. Key insights include why your financial advisor should collaborate with other advisors, why trust is essential, and how to prepare your children for wealth. We wrap things up with reflective tips on how to identify what your true goals are with a profound lesson on why setting your own scoreboard is essential. Tune in as we share some of our favourite moments from the past year and look back at the incredible guests we've had on the show in 2023!   Key Points From This Episode:   Our year with the Rational Reminder community: 23 in 23 reading challenge, memorable meetups, live recordings, a shoutout to our community moderators, and more. (0:00:19) Looking back at our conversation with Charles Ellis and Burton Malkiel on why money management is a loser's game and navigating market efficiency. (0:08:42) Pim Van Vliet's insights on the evidence supporting higher expected returns related to certain stock characteristics. (0:16:19) Discussing the relevance (and irrelevance) of dividends and why people tend to view dividends as particularly special, with Professor Samuel Hartzmark. (0:19:42) Our conversation with Will Goetzmann on the value of very long-term data and why historical data is still relevant today. (0:24:58) Nobel laureate, Robert Merton's insights on putting together a long-term asset mix and taking into account your time horizon. (0:32:35) Highlights from our conversation with Professor Francisco Gomes on how asset allocation should (and should not) change over the lifecycle. (0:39:14) Our second interview with David Blanchett on how regret informs our long-term decisions and Daniel Pink's insights on optimizing for future regret. (0:43:58) Hear from Charles Ellis on the most under-appreciated action that every investor should take to be more successful. (0:50:50) Making decisions on personal finance and John Cambell's insights on how household beliefs tend to differ. (0:51:53) Professor Ralph Keeney on why decision-making is the only purposeful way you can influence anything in your life. (0:54:54) Input from Cass Sunstein on the extensive research he's done on decision-making and how acquiring more information can help your decisions. (0:59:25) We hear from Professor Eric Johnson about the ‘hidden partner' that accompanies us when we make decisions and Cass Sunstein explains when we should update our beliefs. (01:03:09) Professor James Choi shares his profound insights on why financial decisions are not always explained by economic theory. (01:10:26) Unpacking the effect of overconfidence on our decision-making with Itzhak Ben-David, along with his key ideas on miscalibration. (01:12:53) Answering the question “How good are we at understanding our future selves?” with Hal Hershfield. (01:17:20) Our conversation with Meir Statman on the third generation of behavioural finance and what that means for decision-making and advice. (01:21:13) Dr. Preet Banerjee's research and insight on the value of having a financial plan. (01:23:48) Talking with YouTuber, Darin Soat, about the struggle to find high-quality financial information online and understanding YouTube as an entertainment-first platform. (01:25:02) Harold Geller on how to determine whether your advisor is properly understanding you and Robert Merton's thoughts on how he views the role of financial advisors. (01:28:27) We hear from Dr. Preet Banerjee on the business of financial advice and how it has changed over time. (01:35:02) Victor Haghani and James White on the topic of intergenerational billionaires and why there are fewer than you might expect. (01:39:21) An update from Rob Carrick on the state of financial planning for the average Canadian in 2023. (01:44:09) Juhani Linnainmaa unpacks the impact of financial advisors on decision-making and the challenges of choosing a financial advisor. (01:48:48) Dr. James Grubman on identifying a financial advisor who understands the importance of Wealth 3.0, why collaboration is key, and how to prepare children for wealth. (01:51:21) A final takeaway from Shane Parrish on taking stock of your year and how to determine what your true goals are. (02:02:28)   Links From Today's Episode:   Episode 234: Prof. Robert C. Merton — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/234 Episode 236: Harold Geller — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/236 Episode 238: Prof. Ralph Keeney — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/238 Episode 240: Prof. Eric J. Johnson — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/240 Episode 244: Charles D. Ellis — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/244 Episode 246: Daniel H. Pink — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/246 Episode 248: Prof. William Goetzmann — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/248 Episode 250: Prof. John Y. Campbell — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/250 Episode 252: Prof. Burton Malkiel — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/252 Episode 254: David Blanchett — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/254 Episode 256: Prof. Hal Hershfield — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/256 Episode 258: Prof. Meir Statman — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/258 Episode 260: Prof. James Choi — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/260 Episode 262: Prof. Francisco Gomes — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/262 Episode 264: Pim van Vliet — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/264 Episode 266: Prof. Cass Sunstein — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/266 Episode 268: Itzhak Ben-David — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/268 Episode 269: Preet Banerjee — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/269 Episode 270: Victor Haghani and James White — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/270 Episode 272: Rob Carrick — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/272 Episode 273: Professor Samuel Hartzmark — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/273 Episode 275: Live from Future Proof 2023 with Hal Hershfield — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/275 Episode 276: Darin Soat — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/276 Episode 278: Juhani Linnainmaa — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/278 Episode 280: Shane Parrish — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/280 Episode 282: James Grubman —  Episode 224: Scott Cederberg — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/224 Winning the Loser's Game: Timeless Strategies for Successful Investing — https://www.amazon.com/Winning-Losers-Game-Strategies-Successful/dp/1264258461 A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing — https://www.amazon.com/Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Street/dp/0393358380 Your Future Self: How to Make Tomorrow Better Today — https://www.halhershfield.com/yourfutureself A Wealth of Well-Being: A Holistic Approach to Behavioral Finance — https://www.amazon.com/Wealth-Well-Being-Holistic-Approach-Behavioral/dp/1394249675 Strangers in Paradise: How Families Adapt to Wealth Across Generations — https://www.amazon.com/Strangers-Paradise-Families-Wealth-Generations/dp/0615894356 Wealth 3.0: The Future of Family Wealth Advising — https://www.amazon.com/Wealth-3-0-Future-Family-Advising/dp/B0C9SHFSGM Clear Thinking: Turning Ordinary Moments into Extraordinary Results — https://www.amazon.com/Clear-Thinking-Turning-Ordinary-Extraordinary/dp/0593086112 30 Lessons for Living — https://www.karlpillemer.com/books/30-lessons-for-living/ Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on X — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — info@rationalreminder.caBenjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/  Benjamin on X — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on X — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/ Mark McGrath on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/markmcgrathcfp/ Mark McGrath on X — https://twitter.com/MarkMcGrathCFP

An die Episode #83 über Robert Merton und die wissenschaftlichen "Normen" anschließend, möchte ich in der heutigen Episode eine weitere grundlegende Überlegung anstellen. Mertons Normen scheinen mir wichtige Eckpfeiler zu sein, wenn man moderne Wissenschaft verstehen möchte, aber es gibt noch eine Reihe weiterer Aspekte, die man bedenken sollte. Einer davon ist die Idee des Naturalismus und auch dessen Beschränkungen. Dies ist insofern auch für die Einschätzung von Wissenschaft und wissenschaftlicher Erkenntnis für die großen Fragen der Zukunft von großer Bedeutung, weil es uns den Rahmen vorgibt, zu welchen Aspekten der Welt Wissenschaft im Allgemeinen und Naturwissenschaft im Besonderen Aussagen tätigen kann. Und zu welchen nicht. Die Frage des Naturalismus ist also: was ist überhaupt der Gegenstand unserer Betrachtung, und wo sind die Grenzen der Wissenschaft? Und damit verbunden sind Materialismus, Universalismus (wie bereits erwähnt), die Frage, was Wahrheit und Objektivität bedeuten, methodische Zugänge wie Reduktionismus (Experiment) und systemisches Denken und Emergenz, wie sich das Zusammenspiel zwischen Beobachtung und Theorie verhält, was ein Naturgesetz konstituiert und ob es nun gelingen kann, scharf zwischen Wissenschaft und Pseudowissenschaft zu unterscheiden. In dieser Episode werde ich mich auf die Themen: Reduktionismus, Materialismus und wie diese mit dem Naturalismus in Zusammenhang stehen, beschränken. Die anderen Themen vielleicht mal in einer zukünftigen Episode. »Es gehört zu den methodischen Grundsätzen der Wissenschaft, dass man gewisse fundamentale Fragen nicht stellt. Es ist charakteristisch für die Physik, so wie sie neuzeitlich betrieben wird, dass sie nicht wirklich fragt, was Materie ist, für die Biologie, dass sie nicht wirklich fragt, was Leben ist, für die Psychologie, dass sie nicht wirklich fragt, was Seele ist. Wollten wir nämlich diese schwersten Fragen gleichzeitig stellen, während wir Naturwissenschaft betreiben, so würden wir alle Zeit und alle Kraft verlieren, sie lösbaren Fragen zu lösen. Auf der anderen Seite darf man sich nicht täuschen, dass das methodische Verfahren der Wissenschaft [...] wenn es sich über seine eigene Fragwürdigkeit nicht mehr klar ist, etwas Mörderisches an sich hat.«, Carl Friedrich von Weizsäcker Referenzen Andere Episoden Episode 83: Robert Merton — Was ist Wissenschaft? Episode 80: Wissen, Expertise und Prognose, eine Reflexion Episode 55: Strukturen der Welt Episode 14: (Pseudo)wissenschaft? Welcher Aussage können wir trauen? Teil 2   Episode 13: (Pseudo)wissenschaft? Welcher Aussage können wir trauen? Teil 1 Episode 11: Ethik, oder: Warum wir Wissenschaft nicht den Wissenschaftern überlassen sollten! Episode 9: Abstraktion: Platos Idee, Kommunismus und die Zukunft Episode 6: Messen, was messbar ist? Episode 2: Was wissen wir? Fachliche Referenzen Julien Offray de La Mettrie, L'Homme Machine / Der Mensch eine Maschine, erste Ausgabe 1747 Ulrich Kühne, Der Mensch als Industriepalast, Telepolis (2010) Fritz Kahn, Gallerie (Der Mensch als Industriepalast) Naturalism / Philosophy Naturalism, Stanford Encyclopaedia of Philosophy Klaus Kornwachs, Philosophie der Technik (C.H.Beck Wissen) (2013)

Was, schon wieder eine Anomietheorie? Yessss! In der achten KrimShort geht es um Robert Merton's Erklärungsversuch für kriminelles Verhalten von Menschen. Mit seiner Theorie versucht er zu erklären, welche strukturellen Faktoren Menschen dazu verleiten, abweichend oder aber gesellschafts- und regelkonform zu handeln. Eine spannende Theorie, die zu jedem Kriminologie-Studium gehört - also absolut hörenswert für alle KrimNerds unter euch!

Diesmal gibt es eine kurze Episode, in der ich Ihnen am Ende zwei konkrete Fragen stellen möchte. Es gibt ein Online-Formular, wo ich Sie ersuche, Ihre Gedanken stichwortartig einzutragen, natürlich anonym. Wenn ich antworten soll, nennen Sie mir bitte optional eine E-Mail Adresse. Es um zwei eng verwandte Fragen: Was ist Wissenschaft — was sind wesentliche Merkmale und Kriterien wissenschaftlicher Aussagen und Praktiken und Folgende der Gedanken, die ich in Episode 80 entwickelt habe: haben Sie für sich selbst Faustregeln oder Heuristiken entwickelt, die Ihnen helfen, zu entscheiden, ob Sie einem Experten vertrauen? Sind Aussagen glaubwürdig, für Sie von Relevanz? Als Einstieg in die erste Frage, stelle ich die Normen oder Prinzipien vor, die Robert Merton im Jahr 1942 vorgeschlagen hat: Gemeinschaftlichkeit (Communism/Communality) Universalismus (Universalism) Uneigennützigkeit (Disinterestedness) Organisierte Skepsis (Organized skepticism). Stimmen Sie diesen Prinzipien zu? Was fehlt? In welche Richtung sollte man weiterdenken? Bitte senden Sie mir Ihre Gedanken in diesem Formular! Referenzen Andere Episoden Episode 80: Wissen, Expertise und Prognose, eine Reflexion Episode 67: Wissenschaft, Hype und Realität — ein Gespräch mit Stephan Schleim Episode 47: Große Worte Episode 39: Follow the Science? Episode 13: (Pseudo)wissenschaft? Welcher Aussage können wir trauen? Teil 1 Episode 14: (Pseudo)wissenschaft? Welcher Aussage können wir trauen? Teil 2 Episode 2: Was wissen wir? Fachliche Referenzen Science and Pseudo-Science, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (2021) Robert K. Merton, Science and Technology in a Democratic Order, Journal of Legal and Political Sociology, 1: 115–126, 1942 Lactose Intolerance (Britannica) Andrew Curry, Die Milch-Revolution, Spektrum der Wissenschaft (2013) Johan Norberg, Open: The Story of Human Progress, Atlantic Books (2021) Anna I. Krylov, The Peril of Politicizing Science, J. Phys. Chem. Lett. 2021, 12, 5371-5376 Konrad Lorenz, Die acht Todsünden der zivilisierten Menschheit, Piper (1996)

In this episode of "15 Minutes with Paul Ward," get ready to dive deep into the world of homebuying as renowned real estate expert Paul Ward sits down with the brilliant John Mallett of Mainstreet Mortgage. Using his “Out of the box thinking,” John focuses on the “Three DON'TS of Homebuying." From steering clear of media traps to changing your thoughts on Reverse Mortgages, this episode is your essential guide to a successful home purchase. Don't miss this eye-opening conversation that promises to empower you with the knowledge needed when it comes to home buying. Join us for an enlightening 15 minutes that might just save you from costly mistakes and set you on the path to homeownership success. So, buckle up and get ready to transform your home buying journey with expert insights, exclusively on "15 Minutes with Paul Ward"!   Watch the full episode on Paul's YouTube Channel   0:00  Intro music 0:04  Welcome to the show and introduction of John Mallett of Mainstreet Mortgage 0:24  Today we will discuss the 3 big DON'TS when buying a house 0:50  What is the 1st big DON'T when buying a house? 0:58  John tell us to NOT listen to the media 1:30  John gives us an example of why buying is better than renting in the long run 2:27  John confirms that interests rates are higher right now, but share a HUGE benefit to this when it come to taxes 3:13  We get an example of tax itemization 4:43  A few examples of the benefit of homeownership no one talks about 5:45  If you can buy responsibly, John tell us to buy now and explains why 8:25 The 2nd big DON'T is given to us by John 8:42 The issue with staying in a home just because you currently have a good interest rate 10:20 Low inventory causes home prices to stay high 11:03 Paul asks John what the 3rd big DON'T to homebuying is 11:40 What is a Reverse Mortgage? 12:07 Who is Robert Merton and what does he think of Reverse Mortgages? 12:33 Are Reverse Mortgages for everybody? 13:20 John tells us why Reverse Mortgages are leaving individuals in a positive equity position in most cases 14:20 A couple basic guidelines for getting a Reverse Mortgage 15:06 Get a signed FREE copy of John Mallett's book: Buy Your First Home Today 15:56 “You don't find the house, but the house finds you.” 16:20 John explains his philosophy on homeownership and legacy 18:10 John Mallett's contact information 19:25 Paul Ward's contact information 19:33 Thank you to our Sponsor: Opus Escrow   Get your FREE copy of John Mallett's book by emailing your name and address to: paul@homeandranchteam.com   Related Episodes: Where Are Real Estate Prices Headed in Ventura County? Zoning Laws and Permits in Ventura County, CA Building Dreams or Buying History?   How to reach John Mallett: johnmallett@mainstreetloans.com 805-432-2382   How to reach Paul: paul@homeandranchteam.com 805-479-5004   Check out our featured listings as well as other properties for sale in the area: Homeandranchteam.com   Have ideas for future episodes? We'd love to answer your questions - leave a comment! For any home buying or home selling needs in the Ventura County area of California, please reach out to Paul@HomeAndRanchTeam.com or visit www.HomeAndRanchTeam.com   A special THANK YOU to our sponsors! 15 Minutes with Paul Ward would not be possible without the support of our sponsors, Opus Escrow and Community West Bank. Supporting our sponsors ensures 15 Minutes with Paul Ward can provide listeners with the best possible episodes.

“En el marco de la celebración de los XV años del Día del Inversionista , la Superintendencia de Mercado de Valores (SMV) contó con la participación de panelistas de talla internacional. Entre ellos, el Dr. Robert Merton, Premio Nóbel de economía. Israel Reyes, mexicano, especialista en ciberseguridad y el reconocido analista financiero Xavier Serbiá, quien habló sobre el futuro de las inversiones”.Conversamos con Julio Javier Justiniani, Superintendente Mercado de Valores Panamá. Pauta en Radio, 11 de octubre de 2023.

Evident că știința e minunată, dar aduce ea progres moral? Jean-Jacques Rousseau este unii din primii critici ai iluminismului care a îndrăznit să pună la îndoială asumpția că plutim cu toții într-un univers moral mai bun datorită științei. Ca mai tot ce a scris Rousseau, eseul de care ne ocupăm e crash-boom-bang! Dar are dreptate? Invitați speciali: Robert Merton, Jerry Kravitz pardon Ravetz, cinci copii, Autan, John Cena și Diderot.  Dacă vreți să susțineți acest podcast, puteți dona pe episod aici: https://www.patreon.com/octavpopa Support the show

25 years post the chaotic unwind of Long Term Capital Management, there are lessons a plenty to be gleaned from this event. With this in mind, it was a pleasure to welcome acclaimed writer Roger Lowenstein, author of the famous book “When Genius Failed”, to the Alpha Exchange. His work is a compelling chronical of the vast success but ultimate failure of this storied hedge fund.We discuss some of the philosophical underpinnings of the firm's risk management framework, focusing on the influence of Nobel Prize winners Myron Scholes and Robert Merton. We review some of LTCMs favorite trades and how in reality they were far less diversified than they appeared. And we discuss the rescue, a messy episode involving banks, the Fed and Warren Buffet, kind of.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Roger Lowenstein.

Nuno Barbosa Morais é um biólogo computacional. É licenciado em Engenharia Física Tecnológica pelo Instituto Superior Técnico e doutorado em Ciências Biomédicas pela Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de Lisboa, tendo feito investigação internacional durante uma década nas universidades de Cambridge e de Toronto. Lidera, desde 2015, o laboratório de Transcritómica de Doença no Instituto de Medicina Molecular e lecciona cursos de Biologia Computacional a vários mestrados da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de Lisboa.  -> Apoie este projecto e faça parte da comunidade de mecenas do 45 Graus em: 45grauspodcast.com _______________ Índice (com timestamps): (6:50) INÍCIO DA CONVERSA: Crise da Replicação | Vieses cognitivos e as limitações das técnicas de inferência estatística. P-value | Karl Popper | Gregor Mendel | Ronald Fisher (história do chá) | Jacob Bernoulli (23:08) De onde surgiu esta a Crise na Ciência? | Artigo  Why Most Published Research Findings Are False (John Ioannidis) | Artigo de Florian Markowetz 1,500 scientists lift the lid on reproducibility | Five selfish reasons to work reproducibly | Fraude em Alzheimer: Blots on a field? | Artigos de investigadores japoneses na Nature (um, dois) | HARKing  (42:05) Big data e complexificação das metodologias. | Artigo João P. Magalhães «Every gene can (and possibly will) be associated with cancer» | Overfitting | As bombas alemãs em Londres e a ‘clustering illusion' | Riscos de usar programas bioinformáticos como caixas negras |  Inteligência artificial (1:06:16) Será que a ciência já esgotou o “low hanging fruit” das descobertas? Estudo: Rate of scientific breakthroughs slowing over time | Perigos da hiperespecialização. | C. P. Snow (1:17:00) Incentivos perversos do sistema de publicação | Robert Merton e o Matthew effect | Luc Montagnier e as teorias da conspiração Covid (1:29:26) Outras ideias para melhorar a Ciência. | Talent Identification at the limits of Peer Review: an analysis of the EMBO Postdoctoral Fellowships Selection Process | Revisão por pares prévia à publicação |  Algoritmos de revisão com AI: statcheck e grim Livros recomendados: The Drunkard's Walk, de Leonard Mlodinow | Pensar, Depressa e Devagar. de Daniel Kahneman | Science Fictions, de Stuart Ritchie | Calling Bullshit, de Carl Bergstrom e Jevin D. West _______________ Na conversa que vão ouvir, o Nuno identifica uma série de desafios / obstáculos à boa ciência, que eu diria que se podem dividir em dois tipos: os de sempre e aqueles que se tornaram mais agudos nas últimas décadas, devido a algumas mudanças, quer nas técnicas, quer institucionais que afectam o modo como se faz hoje ciência Os primeiros desafios (os de sempre) têm que ver com a grande dificuldade da Ciência enquanto actividade: conseguir compreender o mundo (identificar “leis” na natureza) sendo os dados de que dispomos sempre parcelares e imperfeitos,e contando apenas com a mente dos cientistas -- humana e, por isso, cheia de limitações e vieses.  Para contrariar as nossas limitações cognitivas (e os nossos próprios defeitos morais) criou-se ao longo do tempo uma arquitectura institucional com uma série de válvulas de segurança. Por exemplo, os trabalhos só são publicados depois de serem revistos por outros cientistas, e a ciência é feita de forma aberta, de modo a que estejamos sempre sujeitos à que as nossas conclusões sejam invalidadas por outros investigadores.  E para decidir o que conta e o que não conta como descoberta científica a partir dos tais dados limitados, foi preciso criar um método e um referencial de significância aceite por todos. Instituíram-se, então, testes de inferência estatística, os chamados testes de hipóteses, o mais conhecido dos quais o célebre p value (de que falamos na conversa).  Só que estes testes são apenas uma via indirecta de inferir conclusões (como não é possível nunca ter a certeza em relação à nossa hipótese para explicar determinado fenómeno, o máximo que estes testes fazem é… rejeitar a hipótese de não haver fenómeno nenhum nos dados…). E depois há outro problema, mais grave. É que uma vez estabelecendo-se um referencial para determinar o que conta e não conta como descoberta científica, criam-se incentivos, como o Nuno explica, para que ele seja aldrabado (intencionalmente ou não) pelos cientistas.  Pelas limitações da nossa mente e destes métodos estatísticos, a Ciência foi sempre  uma actividade…complexa. E nas últimas décadas algumas mudanças vieram tornar estes obstáculos ainda maiores. Por um lado, o sistema de publicação de artigos científicos tornou-se cada vez mais competitivo, gerando incentivos para publicar resultados vistosos, mesmo que para isso seja necessário ser menos rigoroso. Por outro lado, a ciência (em particular na área do convidado, as ciências biomédicas) tornou-se mais complexa e informatizada devido à ascensão do chamado big data e o aumento  da utilização de programas “bioinformáticos”. Isto criou desafios adicionais a quem utiliza estas ferramentas sem por vezes as compreender bem.  Estes obstáculos (e outros, de que falamos durante a conversa) desembocaram naquilo que se tem chamado a Crise da Replicação, em que várias conclusões aparentemente sólidas, sobretudo na biomedicina e na psicologia, têm sido invalidadas por estudos posteriores. Esta crise tem feito correr muita tinta nos últimos anos, com já vários livros publicados sobre o assunto.  E foi precisamente por aí que começámos a nossa conversa -- na qual percorremos as causas e consequências deste estado de coisas. No final, pedi ao Nuno para apontar soluções para resolver estes desafios (os antigos e os novos). Como vão ver, ele tem muitas ideias.  _______________ Obrigado aos mecenas do podcast: Francisco Hermenegildo, Ricardo Evangelista, Henrique Pais João Baltazar, Salvador Cunha, Abilio Silva, Tiago Leite, Carlos Martins, Galaró family, Corto Lemos, Miguel Marques, Nuno Costa, Nuno e Ana, João Ribeiro, Helder Miranda, Pedro Lima Ferreira, Cesar Carpinteiro, Luis Fernambuco, Fernando Nunes, Manuel Canelas, Tiago Gonçalves, Carlos Pires, João Domingues, Hélio Bragança da Silva, Sandra Ferreira , Paulo Encarnação , BFDC, António Mexia Santos, Luís Guido, Bruno Heleno Tomás Costa, João Saro, Daniel Correia, Rita Mateus, António Padilha, Tiago Queiroz, Carmen Camacho, João Nelas, Francisco Fonseca, Rafael Santos, Andreia Esteves, Ana Teresa Mota, ARUNE BHURALAL, Mário Lourenço, RB, Maria Pimentel, Luis, Geoffrey Marcelino, Alberto Alcalde, António Rocha Pinto, Ruben de Bragança, João Vieira dos Santos, David Teixeira Alves, Armindo Martins , Carlos Nobre, Bernardo Vidal Pimentel, António Oliveira, Paulo Barros, Nuno Brites, Lígia Violas, Tiago Sequeira, Zé da Radio, João Morais, André Gamito, Diogo Costa, Pedro Ribeiro, Bernardo Cortez Vasco Sá Pinto, David , Tiago Pires, Mafalda Pratas, Joana Margarida Alves Martins, Luis Marques, João Raimundo, Francisco Arantes, Mariana Barosa, Nuno Gonçalves, Pedro Rebelo, Miguel Palhas, Ricardo Duarte, Duarte , Tomás Félix, Vasco Lima, Francisco Vasconcelos, Telmo , José Oliveira Pratas, Jose Pedroso, João Diogo Silva, Joao Diogo, José Proença, João Crispim, João Pinho , Afonso Martins, Robertt Valente, João Barbosa, Renato Mendes, Maria Francisca Couto, Antonio Albuquerque, Ana Sousa Amorim, Francisco Santos, Lara Luís, Manuel Martins, Macaco Quitado, Paulo Ferreira, Diogo Rombo, Francisco Manuel Reis, Bruno Lamas, Daniel Almeida, Patrícia Esquível , Diogo Silva, Luis Gomes, Cesar Correia, Cristiano Tavares, Pedro Gaspar, Gil Batista Marinho, Maria Oliveira, João Pereira, Rui Vilao, João Ferreira, Wedge, José Losa, Hélder Moreira, André Abrantes, Henrique Vieira, João Farinha, Manuel Botelho da Silva, João Diamantino, Ana Rita Laureano, Pedro L, Nuno Malvar, Joel, Rui Antunes7, Tomás Saraiva, Cloé Leal de Magalhães, Joao Barbosa, paulo matos, Fábio Monteiro, Tiago Stock, Beatriz Bagulho, Pedro Bravo, Antonio Loureiro, Hugo Ramos, Inês Inocêncio, Telmo Gomes, Sérgio Nunes, Tiago Pedroso, Teresa Pimentel, Rita Noronha, miguel farracho, José Fangueiro, Zé, Margarida Correia-Neves, Bruno Pinto Vitorino, João Lopes, Joana Pereirinha, Gonçalo Baptista, Dario Rodrigues, tati lima, Pedro On The Road, Catarina Fonseca, JC Pacheco, Sofia Ferreira, Inês Ribeiro, Miguel Jacinto, Tiago Agostinho, Margarida Costa Almeida, Helena Pinheiro, Rui Martins, Fábio Videira Santos, Tomás Lucena, João Freitas, Ricardo Sousa, RJ, Francisco Seabra Guimarães, Carlos Branco, David Palhota, Carlos Castro, Alexandre Alves, Cláudia Gomes Batista, Ana Leal, Ricardo Trindade, Luís Machado, Andrzej Stuart-Thompson, Diego Goulart, Filipa Portela, Paulo Rafael, Paloma Nunes, Marta Mendonca, Teresa Painho, Duarte Cameirão, Rodrigo Silva, José Alberto Gomes, Joao Gama, Cristina Loureiro, Tiago Gama, Tiago Rodrigues, Miguel Duarte, Ana Cantanhede, Artur Castro Freire, Rui Passos Rocha, Pedro Costa Antunes, Sofia Almeida, Ricardo Andrade Guimarães, Daniel Pais, Miguel Bastos, Luís Santos _______________ Esta conversa foi editada por: Hugo Oliveira _______________ Bio: Nuno Barbosa Morais é um biólogo computacional. É licenciado em Engenharia Física Tecnológica pelo Instituto Superior Técnico e doutorado em Ciências Biomédicas pela Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de Lisboa, tendo feito investigação internacional durante uma década nas universidades de Cambridge e de Toronto. Lidera, desde 2015, o laboratório de Transcritómica de Doença no Instituto de Medicina Molecular e lecciona cursos de Biologia Computacional a vários mestrados da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de Lisboa. A sua investigação recorre a análises de grandes dados moleculares no estudo das alterações na regulação da actividade dos genes em tecidos humanos que os tornam mais susceptíveis a doenças, nomeadamente as associadas ao envelhecimento. No processo, a equipa desenvolve ferramentas bioinformáticas que visam tornar acessíveis e inteligíveis aquelas análises a colegas sem formação informática. Procura contribuir para uma maior reprodutibilidade da prática científica, através da promoção da investigação inter-disciplinar, da formação quantitativa de biólogos e do uso de ferramentas de análises de grandes dados como sistemas de apoio à decisão, por oposição a “caixas negras”.

Strain Theory explains criminal behavior as an illegal response to stress from society. The theorist Robert Merton originally designed the theory to describe crimes with financial motives, but as you will hear in our discussion, we believe it is applicable to many other forms of crime including torture and homicide. 

Ambition, gender roles, deviance... what does it all mean? Join me for a brief overview of my research into the pain many of my guests and listeners face as they express and exercise their ambition. Why is it so hard? What is that sense of disapproval we get from society? What can we do about it? This this first episode of season 4 I explain what sociologists and scientists have to say  (and what they neglect!) in studying ambition. I explain part of Robert Merton's Strain Theory, Alice Eagly's Social Role Theory and how I am fitting new parts together to answer your questions about ambition. This is a high level overview fit for anyone who wants a functional understanding of their experience of being "too much" for other people. You aren't alone! 

You don't need to be a rocket scientist to work at Dimensional Fund Advisors, but Gerard O'Reilly sees it as an asset, particularly when it comes to problem-solving. Now the Co-CEO and Chief Investment Officer of one of the fastest-growing US investment businesses, Gerard received a Ph.D. in aeronautics before entering fund management, attracted to Dimensional because of the opportunity it afforded him to learn from the world-leading economists at the company; including Eugene Fama, Myron Scholes, Merton Miller, Robert Merton, and Ken French. We recently sat down with Gerard to discuss the firm's research-based culture and rules-based approach to investing. In this episode, we get into the nitty-gritty regarding Dimensional's distinctive portfolio management decisions and the data sources they draw from and Gerard answers some technical questions regarding risk assessment, factor tilted portfolios, operating profitability, goodwill, and more. We also touch on the value of combining multiple metrics, why small-cap stocks deserve a place in your portfolio, and some of the biggest changes that Gerard has witnessed in Dimensional portfolios over the past decade, as well as how he applies his scientific learnings to make unique portfolio adjustments and some of the various benefits of Dimensional's integrated approach. Make sure not to miss this informative, insightful, and in-depth conversation with Dimensional CIO and Co-CEO, Gerard O'Reilly!   Key Points From This Episode: Market-cap-weighted passive strategies versus Dimensional's rules-based higher expected return strategy. [0:03:45] Assessing risk based on the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM). [0:07:07] Diversification in a factor tilted portfolio versus a cap-weighted market portfolio. [0:10:57] What criteria the variables that Dimensional uses need to meet before they're considered dimensions of expected returns. [0:13:00] Sources Dimensional draws from regarding portfolio decisions and implementation. [0:16:09] How Gerard decides between underweighting or excluding securities in portfolios. [0:19:59] Why Dimensional uses operating profitability rather than cash-based profitability. [0:22:38] Gerard's view on intangible assets, goodwill, and Dimensional's investment strategy. [0:29:31] The value of including internally developed intangibles in value and profitability metrics. [0:37:49] Gerard reflects on the opinion that Fama and French's findings are no longer valid. [0:42:58] Whether or not it's better to combine multiple metrics to measure relative price. [0:46:41] How Dimensional targets value and profitability together (for large and small caps). [0:50:39] How Gerard thinks about capacity for investment strategies in small and micro-cap stocks as Dimensional continues to grow. [0:54:03] Understanding how entering into the ETF market has impacted his thinking. [0:57:24] Expected premiums for owning smaller stocks over larger ones. [0:58:50] The importance of security lending revenue for expected returns on Dimensional funds; improving the investor experience. [1:00:12] How Dimensional deals with sector weights and the role that diversification plays. [1:04:12] Why they decided to implement credit, despite research to suggest that it doesn't add an independent source of expected returns. [1:06:08] Some of the biggest changes in Dimensional portfolios over the past 10 years. [1:10:23] How Gerard applies his scientific learnings to make unique portfolio adjustments. [1:12:52] Comparing Dimensional's core and vector strategies with a combined cap-weighted portfolio; from fees to the benefits of hindsight and more. [1:15:15] Papers that seemed compelling but were deemed ineffective by their research team. [1:19:11] Insight into Dimensional's decision to make their internal research public. [1:21:42] Why their rules-based approach is the hardest part of Dimensional to replicate. [1:25:55] What to be aware of when comparing backtests: how data can be manipulated. [1:30:06] Valuable lessons and perspectives Gerard has learned from their competitors. [1:32:22] Commonalities between aeronautics and asset management, like problem-solving. [1:35:20] Why Gerard believes that having his own financial advisor is invaluable. [1:36:55] Gerard explains why we might expect factor premiums to persist in equilibrium. [1:38:28]

Sign up to our newsletter for more in-depth insights | Follow us on LinkedIn   The world of quantitative investing is a varied one, ranging from “statistical arbitrage” funds that seek to exploit miniscule and often fleeting market mispricings, to systematically exploiting timeless return patterns.   Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) is in the latter camp. Founded by Rex Sinquefield and David Booth - two pioneers of index funds - DFA primarily harnesses “factors” that drive market returns in the long run. Here, Savina Rizova, Global Head of Research at DFA, explores the world of multi-factor investing with the FT's Robin Wigglesworth.    Savina was recently named as one of 100 Most Influential Women in U.S. Finance by the magazine Barron's, and was nominated by none other than Robert Merton, a Nobel laureate in economics. Merton described the Bulgarian-born quantitative researcher as a standout in his more than 50 years of working with some of the best quantitative analysts and investors in the field of financial and economic research applied to real-world solutions.   In this conversation, Savina helps clarify the often muddied terms surrounding factor investing, and reveals the uncomfortable truth that many of these market-beating signals are nothing more than an artifice of data mining.    Savina also explains why DFA is excited about the opportunities in systematic fixed income investing, and covers the firm's decision to jump into the ETF industry and build its own in-house “direct indexing” business (it now competes head-to-head with investment giants like Vanguard, BlackRock and Morgan Stanley on this front).    The avid petrol-head also explains why Formula One is an entirely natural interest for any quant, given its combination of technology, data and human skill!   The Money Maze Podcast is sponsored by Schroders and Bremont Watches.   Schroders is a global investment and wealth manager, with a purpose to provide excellent investment performance to clients, through active investment management. Bremont is an award-winning British company that produces beautifully engineered chronometers, designed to appeal to those who share the appreciation of a beautiful mechanical wristwatch.  

In Episode 4 of Series 7 of The Rights Track, Todd is in conversation with Sam Gilbert, an entrepreneur and affiliated researcher at the Bennett Institute for Public Policy at the University of Cambridge. Sam works on the intersection of politics and technology. His recent book – Good Data: An Optimist's Guide to Our Future – explores the different ways data helps us, suggesting that “the data revolution could be the best thing that ever happened to us”.  Transcript Todd Landman  0:01  Welcome to The Rights Track podcast which gets the hard facts about the human rights challenges facing us today. In Series 7, we're discussing human rights in a digital world. I'm Todd Landman, in the fourth episode of this series, I'm delighted to be joined by Sam Gilbert. Sam is an entrepreneur and affiliated researcher at the Bennett Institute for Public Policy at the University of Cambridge, working on the intersection of politics and technology. His recent book, Good Data: An Optimist's Guide to Our Future explores the different ways data helps us suggesting the data revolution could be the best thing that ever happened to us. And today, we're asking him, what makes data good? So Sam, welcome to this episode of The Rights Track. Sam Gilbert  0:41  Todd thanks so much for having me on.  Todd Landman  0:44  So I want to start really with the book around Good Data. And I'm going to start I suppose, with the negative perception first, and then you can make the argument for a more optimistic assessment. And this is this opening set of passages you have in the book around surveillance capitalism. Could you explain to us what surveillance capitalism is and what it means?  Sam Gilbert  1:01  Sure. So surveillance capitalism is a concept that's been popularised by the Harvard Business School Professor, Shoshana Zuboff. And essentially, it's a critique of the power that big tech companies like Google and Facebook have. And what it says is that, that power is based on data about us that they accumulate, as we live our lives online. And by doing that produce data, which they collect, and analyse, and then sell to advertisers. And for proponents of surveillance capitalism theory, there's something sort of fundamentally illegitimate about that. In terms of the way that it, as they would see it, appropriates data from individuals for private gain on the path of tech companies. I think they would also say that it infringes individual's rights in a more fundamental way by subjecting them to surveillance. So that I would say is surveillance capitalism in a nutshell.  Todd Landman  2:07  Okay. So to give you a concrete example, if I'm searching for a flannel shirt from Cotton Trader, on Google, the next day, I open up my Facebook and I start to see ads for Cotton Trader, on my Facebook feed, or if I go on to CNN, suddenly I see an ad for another product that I might have been searching for on Google. Is that the sort of thing that he's talking about in this concept? Sam Gilbert  2:29  Yes, that's certainly one dimension to it. So that example that you just gave is an example of something that's called behaviour or retargeting. So this is when data about things you've searched for, or places you've visited on the internet, are used to remind you about products or services that you've browsed. So I guess this is probably the most straightforward type of what surveillance capitalists would call surveillance advertising.  Todd Landman  2:57  Yeah, I understand that, Sam, but you know when I'm internally in Amazon searching for things. And they say you bought this other people who bought this might like this, have you thought about, you know, getting this as well. But this is actually between platforms. This is, you know, might do a Google search one day. And then on Facebook or another platform, I see that same product being suggested to me. So how did, how did the data cross platforms? Are they selling data to each other? Is that how that works?  Sam Gilbert  3:22  So there's a variety of different technical mechanisms. So without wanting to get too much into the jargon of the ad tech world, there are all kinds of platforms, which put together data from different sources. And then in a programmatic or automated way, allow advertisers the opportunity to bid in an auction for the right to target people who the data suggests are interested in particular products. So it's quite a kind of complex ecosystem. I think maybe one of the things that gets lost a little bit in the discussion is some of the differences between the ways in which big tech companies like Facebook and Google and Amazon use data inside their own platforms, and the ways in which data flows out from those platforms and into the wider digital ecosystem. I guess maybe just to add one more thing about that. I think, probably many people would have a hard time thinking of something as straightforward as being retargeted with a product that they've already browsed for, they wouldn't necessarily see that as surveillance, or see that as being particularly problematic. I think what gets a bit more controversial, is where this enormous volume of data can have machine learning algorithms applied to it, in order to make predictions about products or services that people might be interested in as consumers that they themselves haven't even really considered. I think that's where critics of what they would call surveillance capitalism have a bigger problem with what's going on. Todd Landman  4:58  No I understand that's, that's a great great explanation. Thank you. And I guess just to round out this set of questions, really then it sounds to me like there's a tendency for accumulated value and expenditure here, that is really creating monopolies and cartels. To what degree is the language of monopoly and cartel being used? Because these are, you know, we rattle off the main platforms we use, but we use those because they have become so very big. And, you know, being a new platform, how does a new platform cut into that ecosystem? Because it feels like it's dominated by some really big players. Sam Gilbert  5:32  Yes. So I think this is a very important and quite complicated area. So it is certainly the case that a lot of Silicon Valley tech companies have deliberately pursued a strategy of trying to gain a monopoly. In fact, it might even be said that that's sort of inherent to the venture capital driven start-up business model to try and dominate particular market space. But I suppose the sense in which some of these companies, let's take Facebook as an example, are monopolies is really not so related to the way in which they monetize data or to their business model. So Facebook might reasonably be said to be a monopolist of encrypted messaging, because literally billions of people use Facebook's platform to communicate with each other. But it isn't really a monopolist of advertising space, because there are so many other alternatives available to advertisers who want to promote their products. I guess another dimension to this is the fact that although there are unquestionably concentrations of power with the big tech companies, they also provide somewhat of a useful service to the wider market, in that they allow smaller businesses to acquire customers much more effectively. So that actually militates against monopoly. Because now in the current digital advertising powered world, not every business has to be so big and so rich in terms of capital, that it can afford to do things like TV advertising. The platform's that Facebook and Google provides are also really helpful to small businesses that want to grow and compete with bigger players.  Todd Landman  7:15  Yeah, now I hear you shifting into the positive turn here. So I'm going to push you on this. So what is good data? And why are you an optimist about the good data elements to the work you've been doing? Sam Gilbert  7:27  Well, for me, when I talk about good data, what I'm really talking about is the positive public and social potential of data. And that really comes from my own professional experience. Because although at the moment, I spend most of my time researching and writing about these issues of data and digital technology, actually, my background is in the commercial sector. So I spent 18 years working in product and strategy and marketing roles, and particularly financial services. Also at the data company, Experian, also in a venture backed FinTech business called Bought By Many. And I learnt a lot about the ways in which data can be used to make businesses successful. And I learned a lot of techniques that, in general, at the moment, are only really put to use to achieve quite banal goals. So for example, to sell people more trainers, or to encourage them to buy more insurance products. And so one of the things that I'm really interested in is how some of those techniques and technologies can move across from the commercial sector, into the public sector, the third sector, and be put to work in ways that are more socially beneficial. So maybe just to give one example of that type of data that I think contains huge potential for public goods is search data. So this is the data set that is produced by all of us using Google and Bing and other search engines on a daily basis. Now, ordinarily, when this data is used, it is to do banal things like, target shoes more effectively. But there is also this emerging discipline called Infodemiology, where academic researchers use search data in response to public health challenges. So one great example of that, at the moment has been work by Bill Lampos at University College London and his team, where they've built a predictive model around COVID symptoms using search data. And that model actually predicts new outbreaks 17 days faster than conventional modes of epidemiological surveillance. So that's just one example of the sort of good I believe data can bring. Todd Landman  9:50  So it's like a really interesting example of an early early warning system and it could work not only for public health emergencies, but other emerging emergencies whether they be conflict, or natural disasters or any topic that people are searching for, is that correct? Sam Gilbert  10:05  Yes, that's right. I mean, it's not just in the public health field that researchers have used this, you just put me in mind actually Todd of a really interesting paper written by some scholars in Japan who are looking at citizens decision making in response to natural disaster warnings. So floods and earthquakes that that migration patterns I guess, would be the way of summarising it. Those are things that can also be detected using search data.  Todd Landman  10:31  Well, that's absolutely fascinating. So if we go back to public health then. I was just reading a new book, out called Pandemocracy in Europe: Power, Parliaments and People in Times of COVID. And it's edited by Matthias Kettemann and Konrad Lachmayer. And there's a really fascinating chapter in this book that transcends the nation state, if you will. And it talks about platforms and pandemics. And one section of the chapter starts to analyse Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and telegram on the degree to which they were able to control and or filter information versus disinformation or misinformation. And just the scale of some of this stuff is quite fascinating. So you know, Facebook has 2.7 billion daily users, it's probably a bigger number now. And you know, 22.3% of their investigated Facebook posts contain misinformation about COVID-19. And they found that the scale of misinformation was so large that they had to move to AI solutions, some human supervision of those AI solutions. But what's your take on the role of these big companies like we've been talking about Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Telegram, and their ability to control the narrative and at least provide safe sources of information, let's say in times of COVID, but there may be other issues of public interest where they have a role to play?  Sam Gilbert  11:57  Yes, I think this is such an important question. It's very interesting that you use the phrase, control the narrative, because of course, that is something that big tech companies have traditionally been extremely reluctant to do. And one of the things I explore a bit in my book is the extent to which this can really be traced back to some unexamined normative assumptions on the part of tech company executives, where they think that American norms of free speech and the free speech protections of the First Amendment that's sort of universal laws that are applicable everywhere, rather than things which are culturally and historically contingent. And for that reason, they have been extremely reluctant to do any controlling of the narrative and have tended to champion free speech over the alternative course of action that they might take, which is to be much more proactive in combating harms, including but not limited to misinformation. I think this probably also speaks to another problem that I'm very interested in, in the book, which is what we are concerned about when we say we're concerned about big tech companies' power, because I think ordinarily, the discussion about big tech companies power tends to focus on their concentrations of market power. Or in the case of surveillance capitalism theory, it concentrates on the theoretical power that algorithms have over individuals and their decision making. And what gets lost a bit in that is the extent to which tech companies by providing these platforms and these technologies actually empower other people to do things that weren't possible before. So in some work I've been doing with Amanda Greene, who's a philosopher at University College London, we've been thinking about that concept of empowering power, as we call it. And as far as we're concerned, that's actually a much more morally concerning aspect of the power of big tech, big tech companies than their market position.  Todd Landman  14:11  Yeah. So I like it that you cite the First Amendment of the American Constitution, but interestingly, the international framework for the protection and promotion of human rights also, you know, has very strong articles around protection of free speech, free assembly, free association, which of course, the tech companies will be interested in looking at and and reviewing. But what it raises to I believe really is is a question around the kind of public regulation of private actors, because these are private actors. They're not subjected to international human rights law in the way that states are. And yet they're having an impact on mass publics. They're having an impact on politics. They're having an impact on debate. So perhaps I misspoke by saying control the narrative. What I'm really interested in is we seem to have lost mediation. We have unmediated access to information. And it seems to me that these it's incumbent upon these organisations to provide some kind of mediation of content, because not all things are true just because they're said. So it gets back to that question, what where's the boundary for them? When will they step in and say this is actually causing harm if there's some sort of a big tech Hippocratic oath about do no harm that needs to be developed? So that, so there is at least some kind of attempt to draw a boundary around what is shared and what is not shared? Sam Gilbert  15:34  Yes, so the idea of a Hippocratic oath for tech workers is definitely out there, the writer who has explored it more than I have is James Williams in his book Stand Out Of Our Light. I think that that is certainly something that would help. I also think that it is beneficial that at the moment, we're having more discussion about data ethics and the ethics of artificial intelligence, and that that is permeating some of the tech companies. So I think more ethical reflection on the part of tech executives and tech workers is to be welcomed. I don't think that's sufficient. And I do think that it's important that we have stronger regulation of the tech sector. And I suppose from my perspective, the thing that needs to be regulated, much more than anything to do with how data is collected or how data is used in advertising. Is this what sometimes referred to as online safety, or other times it's referred to as online harms. So that is anything that gives rise to individuals being at risk of being harmed as they live their lives online. There's actually legislation that is coming through in the UK at the moment called online safety bill, which is far from perfect legislation, but in my opinion, it's directionally right. Because it is more concerned with preventing harm and giving tech companies a responsibility for playing their part in it, then it is concerned with trying to regulate data or advertising. Todd Landman  17:13  Yeah, so it's really the result of activity that is trying to address rather than that the data that drives the the activity, if I could put it that way. So if we think about this, do no harm element, the mediating function that's required at least to get trusted information available to users. I, I wonder if we could pivot a little bit to the current crisis in Ukraine, because I've noticed on social media platforms, a number of sites have popped up saying we're a trusted source for reporting on on the current conflict, and they get a sort of kite mark or a tick for that. I've also seen users saying, don't believe everything you see being tweeted out from Ukraine. So where does this take us and not only COVID, but to something as real time active and horrific as conflict in a country, we can talk about Ukraine or other conflicts about the sharing of information on social media platforms? Sam Gilbert  18:08  Yes, well, this is a very difficult question. And unfortunately, I don't have the answer for you today. I guess what I would point to is something you touched on there Todd, which is the idea of mediation. And we have been through this period with social media, where the organizations, the institutions that we traditionally relied on to tell us what was true and what was false and sort fact from fiction, those organisations have been disintermediated. Or in some cases, they have found themselves trying to compete in this very different information environment that is much more dynamic in a way that actually ends up undermining the journalistic quality that we would otherwise expect from them. So this is not a very satisfactory answer, because I don't know what can be done about it, except that it is a very serious problem. I suppose just to make one final point that I've been reminded I've been reading stories on this topic in relation to the Ukraine crisis, is that the duality of this power that tech companies and that technology has given to ordinary users in the era of social media over the last 15 years or so. So if we were to rewind the clock to 2010, or 2011, the role of Twitter and Facebook and other technology platforms in enabling protest and resistance against repressive regimes that was being celebrated. If we then roll forwards a few years and look at a terrible case like the ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya people in Myanmar, we are at the complete opposite end of the spectrum where the empowerment of users with technology has disastrous consequences, and I guess if we then roll forward again to the Ukraine crisis, it's still not really clear whether the technology is having a beneficial or detrimental effect. So this is really just to say, once again, when we think about the power of tech companies, these are the questions I think we need to be grappling with, rather than questions to do with data. Todd Landman  20:31  Sure, there was there was a great book years ago called the Logic of Connective Action. And it was really looking at the way in which these emerging platforms because the book was published some years ago about lowering collective action costs, whether it was, you know, for protest movements, or, you know, anti-authoritarian movements, etc, we did a piece of work years ago with someone from the German Development Institute on the role of Facebook, in, in opposition to the Ben Ali regime in Tunisia, and Facebook allowed people to make a judgement as to whether they should go to a protest or not based on number of people who said they were going and and so it lowered the cost of participation, or at least the calculated costs of participating in those things. But as you say, we're now seeing this technology being used on a daily basis, I watch drone footage every day of tanks being blown up, of buildings being destroyed. And you know, part of my mind thinks it's this real, what I'm watching. And then also part of my mind thinks about, what's the impact of this? Does this have an impact on morale of the people involved in the conflict? Does it change the narrative, if you will, about the progress and or, you know, lack of progress in in the conflict, and then, of course, the multiple reporting of whether they're going to be peace talks, humanitarian corridors and all this other stuff. So it does raise very serious questions about the authenticity, veracity and ways in which technology could verify what we're seeing. And of course, you have time date stamps, metadata and other things that tell you that that was definitely a geolocated thing. So are these companies doing that kind of work? Are they going in and digging into the metadata, I noticed that Maxar Technologies, for example, is being used for its satellite data extensively, and looking at the build-up of forces and the movement of troops and that sort of thing. But again, that's a private company making things available in the public sphere for people to then reach judgments, media companies to use, it's an incredible ecosystem of information, and that it seems like a bit like a wild west to me, in terms of what we believe what we don't believe and the uses that can be made of this imagery and commentary. Sam Gilbert  22:32  Yes, so there is this as an all things, this super proliferation of data. And what is still missing is the intermediation layer to both make sense of that. And also tell stories around it that have some kind of journalistic integrity. I mean what you put me in mind of there Todd was the open source intelligence community, and some of the work that including human rights organisations do to leverage these different data data sources to validate and investigate human rights abuses taking place in different parts of the world. So to me, this seems like very important work, but also work that is rather underfunded. I might make the same comment about fact checking organisations, which seem to do very important work in the context of disinformation, but don't seem to be resourced in the way that perhaps they should be. Maybe just one final comment on this topic would relate to the media, the social media literacy of individuals. And I wonder whether that is something that is maybe going to help us in trying to get out of this impasse, because I think over time, people are becoming more aware that information that they see on the internet may not be reliable. And while I think there's still a tendency for people to get caught up in the moment, and retweets or otherwise amplify these types of messages, I think that some of the small changes the technology companies have made to encourage people to be more mindful when they're engaging with and amplifying content might just help build on top of that increase in media literacy, and take us to a slightly better place in the future. Todd Landman  24:26  Yeah, I mean, the whole thing around media literacy is really important. And I I also want to make a small plea for data literacy, just understanding and appreciating what data and statistics can tell us without having to be you know, an absolute epidemiologist, statistician or quantitative analyst. But I wanted to hark back to your idea around human rights investigations, we will have a future episode with a with a group that does just that and it's about maintaining the chain of evidence, corroborating evidence and using you know, digital evidence as you, you know in ways that help human rights investigations and, you know, if and when this conflict in Ukraine finishes, there will be some sort of human rights investigatory process. We're not sure which bodies going to do that yet, because we've been called for, you know, like a Nuremberg style trial, there have been calls for the ICC to be involved as been many other stakeholders involved, but that digital evidence is going to be very much part of the record. But I wonder just to, yeah go ahead Sam.  Sam Gilbert  25:26  Sorry I am just going to add one thing on that, which I touched on this a little bit, and my book, but I think there's a real risk, actually, that open-source intelligence investigations become collateral damage in the tech companies pivot towards privacy. So what some investigators are finding is that material that they rely on to be able to do their investigations is being unilaterally removed by tech companies, either because it's YouTube, and they don't want to be accused of promoting terrorist content, or because it's Google or Facebook, and they don't want to being accused of infringing individual's privacy. So while this is not straightforward, I just think it's worth bearing in mind that sometimes pushing very hard for values like data privacy can have these unintended consequences in terms of open source intelligence. Todd Landman  26:24  Yes, it's an age old chestnut about the unintended consequences of purposive social action. I think that was a Robert Merton who said that at one point, but I guess in closing that I have a final question for you because you are an optimist. You're a data optimist, and you've written a book called good data. So what is there to be optimistic about for the future?  Sam Gilbert  26:42  Well, I suppose I should say something about what type of optimist I am first, so to do that, I'll probably reach for Paul Romer's distinction between blind optimism and conditional optimism. So blind optimism is the optimism of a child hoping that her parents are going to build her a tree house. Conditional optimism is the optimism of a child who thinks, well, if I can get the tools and if I can get a few friends together, and if we can find the right tree, I think we can build a really incredible tree house together. So I'm very much in the second camp, the camp of conditional optimism. And I guess the basis for that probably goes to some of the things we've touched on already, where I just see enormous amounts of untapped potential in using data in ways that are socially useful. So perhaps just to bring in one more example of that. Opportunity Insights, the group at Harvard run by Raj Chetty has had some incredibly useful insights into social mobility and economic inequality in America, by using de-identified tax record data to understand over a long period of time, the differences in people's incomes. And I really think that that type of work is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to this enormous proliferation of data that is out there. So I think if the data can be made available to researchers, also to private organisations in a way that, as far as possible, mitigates the risks that do exist to people's privacy. There's no knowing quite how many scientific breakthroughs or advances in terms of human and social understanding that we might be able to get to. Todd Landman  28:52  Amazing and I guess, to your conditional optimism, I would add my own category, which is a cautious optimist, and that's what I am. But talking to you today does really provide deep insight to us to understand the many, many different and complex issues here and that last point you made about, you know, the de-identified data used for for good purposes - shining a light on things that that are characterising our society, it with a view to be able to do something about it, you see things that you wouldn't see before and that's one of the virtues of good data analysis is that you end up revealing macro patterns and inconsistencies and inequalities and other things that then can feed into the policymaking process to try to make the world a better place and human rights are no exception to that agenda. So for now, Sam, I just want to thank you so much for coming on to this episode and sharing all these incredible insights and, and and the work that you've done. So thank you. Chris Garrington 29:49 Thanks for listening to this episode of The Rights Track, which was presented by Todd Landman and produced by Chris Garrington of Research Podcasts with funding from 3DI. You can find a detailed transcript on the website at www.RightsTrack.org. And don't forget to subscribe wherever you listen to your podcasts to access future and earlier episodes. Further reading and resources: Sam Gilbert (2021) Good Data: An Optimist's Guide to Our Digital Future. Bill Lampos' covid infodemiology: Lampos, V., Majumder, M.S., Yom-Tov, E. et al. (2021) “Tracking COVID-19 using online search”. Infodemiology Japan/natural disasters paper: [1906.07770] Predicting Evacuation Decisions using Representations of Individuals' Pre-Disaster Web Search Behavior (arxiv.org) On “empowering power”:  Greene, Amanda and Gilbert, Samuel J., (2021) “More Data, More Power? Towards a Theory of Digital Legitimacy”. On the Hippocratic oath for tech workers: James Williams (2018) Stand out of our Light: Freedom and Resistance in the Attention Economy. Matthias C. Kettemann and Konrad Lachmayer (eds.) (2022) Pandemocracy in Europe: Power, Parliaments and People in Times of COVID-19. W. Lance Bennett and Alexandra  Segerberg (2013) The Logic of Connective Action; Digital Media and the Personalization of Contentious Politics.

Capire l'economia è una serie di 23 dvd coordinata da Odifreddi per Repubblica e L'Espresso, e pubblicata tra il 28 dicembre 2012 e il 31 maggio 2013. Al piano dell'opera hanno partecipato Alberto Alesina, Giuliano Amato (ex presidente del Consiglio), Robert Aumann (premio Nobel 2005), Giorgio Barba Navaretti, Alberto Bisin, Tito Boeri, Valerio Castronovo, Noam Chomsky, Marco Dardi, Alessandro De Nicola, Giorgio Lunghini, Robert Merton (premio Nobel 1997), Robert Mundell (premo Nobel 1999), Alessandro Penati, Romano Prodi (ex presidente del Consiglio e della Comunità Europea), Fabio Ranchetti, Alessandro Roncaglia, Fabiano Schivardi, Amartya Sen (premio Nobel 1998), Michael Spence (premio Nobel 2001), Gianni Toniolo e Luigi Zingales. Oltre allo stesso Odifreddi, che ha effettuato l'intervento di questo episodio. --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/vito-rodolfo-albano7/message

Hello Interactors,Our family hit a snag in the transportation department last week. Our routine was disrupted making us scramble for remedies — including possibly needing a new car. It all came at a time when the state of Washington released its 2021 figures on automobile related deaths. It made me wonder and reflect on car dependency, the Covid funk, and the psychology of cars. As interactors, you’re special individuals self-selected to be a part of an evolutionary journey. You’re also members of an attentive community so I welcome your participation.Please leave your comments below or email me directly.Now let’s go…CHITTY CHITTY BANG BANG“It’s making a strange noise, shifts awkwardly, and smells funny,” my son and daughter exclaimed. There had been similar reports previously, but things had worsened. “It seems ok on the straights, but sounds and feels worse going down hill,” they added. Then, as my daughter got in the car to go to swim practice, she soon came back inside and said, “I’m taking the other car. Uno is making an awful noise and smells even worse than before.”Our kids call our 2006 Audi A3, Uno. The Washington State Licensing authority named it when it was born. They even sent us two rectangular plates with its name stamped into it, along with a few appended random numbers. We mounted one on its nose and the other on its rear-end. Our kids use Uno to commute to school 12 miles away as well as other errands, appointments, and events. They both have a bit of an emotional attachment to this aging little black hatchback. Uno even becomes Dracula during Halloween when they affix dangling white fangs on each side of the license plate frame.I’ve had an emotional attachment to Audi’s since I was a kid. I saw my first Audi in the mid-70s. It was Audi’s first car sold in the United States – The Audi Fox. A guy down the street owned one. His name was Delbert Woody. I was drawn to Delbert. He was a World War II veteran who personified the post-war male mystique. He rode a dirt bike in the open field behind his house, was an avid hunter and fisherman, drove construction trucks for a living, was a life long Teamster Union member, and loved pecan pie and Pepsi. He, like so many other war veterans, got married after the war and settled in the suburbs. They were the first to move into one of Norwalk, Iowa’s first subdivisions in 1960. Their single story ranch house, nestled neatly in a line of others just like it, sat on a hill below the water tower at the edge of town on a street aptly named: Edgemont.Also in keeping with post-war tradition, he had a fascination with cars. I remember him owning more than one and this was during the 1970s gas crisis and recession. Audi entered the U.S. market selling the Fox as a ‘solution to the gas problem.’ The Fox was marketed as a sports sedan with a sporty suspicion, front-wheel drive, and an engine that could get 25 miles to the gallon. All for $3400. That’s roughly $20,000 today. I can see how a masculine blue collar gearhead like Delbert was attracted to this car, despite it being German.I’m not sure what I liked about it. Maybe it was the novelty of a foreign car in small Iowa town, the European styling, or maybe it was the cool fox emblem on the back. Probably all the above. The truth is, Delbert and I, and all auto-dependent motorists, share something in common. We all have brains that contain two separate modules that combine to form relationships with automobiles.One of these cranial circuits uses cool calculating rational thought that views a car as a utility – an appliance. It’s sensitive to numbers: miles per gallon, range, price, 0-60, reliance ratings, and a myriad of other self-justifying statistics. The other side of the brain tugs on our heart strings. Emotional affections warm our heart in the comfort of a climate controlled cocoon. It makes our heart go pitter patter with the status cars provide, or cause our pulse to quicken at the sudden and effortless acceleration through space.Both of these neuro-negotiators conspire to construct our comforting and sometimes conniving relationships with cars. And automakers have learned how to manipulate both of these brainy battles through design and marketing.Uno got its name from a random license plate generator, but automakers are less random. For Delbert Woody’s Audi Fox, Audi wanted to associate that car with a fox. A fox is agile, strong, fast…and cunning. Many animals are. Which is why it’s not hard to find cars named after animals. Here are just a few: Plymouth Barracuda, Mercury Sable, Buick Skylark, Corvette Stingray, Pontiac Sunbird, Ford Thunderbird, Dodge Viper, AMC Eagle, Chevrolet Impala, and who can forget the Ford Pinto.As you can see all of these are American made cars. U.S. automakers also like aggressive macho sounding names. Especially Dodge, with names like Challenger, Ram, and Avenger. Europe and Japan have a few examples like the Fiat Spider or Suzuki Samurai, but nothing like the U.S. You may be thinking to yourself, what about the iconic Volkswagen Beetle? Sorry, but that’s a nickname. It’s official name in Germany was Volkswagen Type 1. What about the Volkswagen Rabbit? It was the Volkswagen Golf in Europe. And Delbert’s Audi Fox would have been called the Audi 80 anywhere else but America.The design of vehicles are also expressive. When Uno dawns his fangs at Halloween, the gimmick only works because the headlights make the eyes and the grill its mouth. Different cars take on different personalities when viewed from the front, or more commonly, when viewed in your rear view mirror. There’s speculation by some psychologists that these personalities may even be reflected in the owners and their driving behavior. There is certainly evidence that some car design and some drivers have become more aggressive over time. But it’s equally true that some aggressive looking cars are sometimes driven by passive people. Or maybe they’re using the design of their vehicle to hide or express some other hidden or deep seeded emotion or personality trait.RAGE DISPENSED THE MACHINEStefan Gössling is a professor of social science at Lund University in Sweden. He researches and writes extensively on transportation. In 2017 he released a book called The Psychology of the Car. He says there are a wide range of emotions that relate to the power and dominance that play a central role in car culture. He cites research affirming “that driving powerful cars is generally understood as a means of expressing macho personalities.” Driving a powerful car exudes superiority and control.He lists different aspects and levels of control we have driving cars:Agency: To be able to decide when to leave at any point in time, and for any given destinationSemiotics: Being in charge: control of inside (music, temperature) and outside environment (navigation system, speed), and car physics (fuel levels, revolutions per minute)Haptics: Holding the steering wheel, pushing pedals, shifting gearsSmells and soundscapes: Choice of smell or music, interiorPhysics of movement: Being able to drive fast, to accelerateBut he also quotes the sociologist, John Urry. He too wrote extensively on the sociology of mobility, especially regarding the loss of control that can come with controlling a fast moving machine. The automobile, while offering us much control, can also rob us of critical experiences. He writes,“Dwelling at speed, car-drivers lose the ability to perceive local detail, to talk to strangers, to learn of local ways of life, to stop and sense each different place. Sights, sounds, tastes, temperatures and smells get reduced to the two-dimensional view through the car windscreen and through the rear mirror, the sensing of the world through the screen being the dominant mode of contemporary dwelling. The environment beyond that windscreen is an alien other, kept at bay through the diverse privatizing technologies incorporated within the car. These technologies ensure a consistent supply of information, a relatively protected environment, high quality sounds and increasingly sophisticated systems of monitoring. They enable the hybrid of the car-driver to negotiate conditions of intense riskiness on high-speed roads.”Our roads are designed to drive at high speeds. They even include optical illusions to put you at ease. For example, the length and distance between dashed lines on highways are designed to trick your brain into believing your body is moving slower than it really is. And while there have been many amazing safety advancements in the engineering of roads and cars for those inside the vehicle, they’ve inadvertently made them increasingly dangerous for those outside of the vehicle.Washington state ended 2021 with the highest number of road fatalities in 15 years. There were more than 540 fatal crashes killing over 600 people. One hundred and eighteen of whom were walking or riding their bike. An additional 2,411 crashes were estimated to have caused serious injury – a 16% rise over 2020. Thirty one people were killed in Seattle alone in 2021.While the design of our infrastructure and vehicles encourages speed, other factors are at play as well. Alcohol and drug related crashes have continued to climb 25% since 2019. Speed also was a major factor climbing 18% since 2020.There are a multitude of interrelated factors that lead to increasing numbers of motorists killing and injuring people – especially cyclists and pedestrians. But given the social malaise that has overcome us all over the last few years, anger and aggression are likely key factors. Whether it’s lockdown lunacy, income inequity insanity, racial reality, gender gut checks, or fights between the lefts and the rights there are ample reasons for us all to be disturbed.There are also threats to the status quo. Increasingly cities are seeing bike and bus lanes squeezing out car lanes, rising gas prices, and talk of congestion fees. Meanwhile, automakers are ditching the traditional internal combustion engine for progressive green machines. These are levels of social change that many welcome, while others reject – especially those adverse to change or who feel their individualism is threatened.So they take it out on others on the road. We’ve all witnessed, or are guilty of perpetrating, acts of aggression on the road: dodging and weaving through traffic, tailgating, flashing lights, running red lights, honking, flipping the bird, or yelling out the window. Worse yet, extreme forms of road rage where people take chase in a fit of anger to inflict harm or intimidation. There are more passive aggressive examples too, like parking in a bike lane, stopping in a cross walk, or failing to yield to a blinkering merging bus.In 1994, Jerry Deffenbacher, a Colorado State psychology professor who studies correlations of anger and anxiety with behavior, created a Driving Anger Scale that scientists have been using since. Results as recent as 2016 suggest personality traits like “impulsiveness, narcissism, and normlessness” confirm studies from 2013 that link narcissism to aggressive driving. One researcher concluded: “driving anger of narcissistic individuals may result out of threats to perceived power, control, and position rather than to image and attention seeking.”Results also vary by age, gender, driver experience, and culture. In a country who’s culture flaunts and breeds narcissism, individualism, and macho maleness – possibly even overly tolerant of outward expressions of anger as an acceptable emotional response – we should not be surprised to see increased aggression on the part of some motorists.Sometimes anger directed at strangers can take the form of contempt. The car then becomes a way to separate one’s self from others deemed inferior or from an anxiety inducing changing environment. Here’s how one geography researcher, Jason Henderson of San Francisco State University, described an SUV driver in a 2006 study looking at the politics of automobility in Atlanta, Georgia.  “After spitting into a toll collection device on the highway, the angry white male described his disdain at the possible alternatives to his SUV — a compact urban form with intensive transit infrastructure containing pedestrian and transit spaces where people would have physical proximity to ‘others’ of different racial, class, gender or sexual orientation. Seen in this context, his SUV was more than just an instrument for traveling through the city. It was an instrument of secession from what he scorned in contemporary American urban space.”WITH URBAN FRICTION COMES CAR ADDICTIONWe took Uno to the doctor. We had a sneaking suspicion it may be done for. When my wife pulled into the shop they said, “You best turn that off, it doesn’t sound good. You probably should have had it towed.” But after waiting a few days for the prognosis, it turned out to be a couple bad spark plugs, failing coils, and noise inducing broken catalytic converter.When my son heard this news, he said, “Let’s straight-pipe it!” Straight-piping is when you remove emission reducing mechanisms so that the sound, and pollution, from the engine goes straight out the tailpipe. Both my son and my daughter have an affinity for loud cars. My son can tell you the make and model of a car just from the sound of the exhaust. He’s a combusting carbon connoisseur. And lucky for him, there seems to be an increasing number of loud tailpipes these days.I’m more aghast at the uproarious racket. I grumble and mutter under my own exhaust as these cars rumble by, “There goes another UAS. Urban Attention Seeker.” And it seems I’m right. Overly loud modified exhausts, or even some motorcycles (I’m looking at you Harley Davidson), are symbols of rebellion. They signal to anyone in ear shot opposition to authority and social norms. They scream, “NOTICE ME!”In Gössling’s book he cites the research of Robert Merton who is regarded by many as the founder of modern sociology. He also studied criminology where he developed strain theory which says strain in an individual can come about in a society that pressures people to attain more than they can possibly achieve. So they seek forms of rebellion. More recent advances in this theory by the criminologist and social psychologist Robert Agnew point to three factors that lead to criminal acts of rebellion. They largely stem from childhood stress, trauma, victimization, and neglect:The inability to achieve positively valued stimuli (e.g., money, status, autonomy)The loss of positively valued stimuli (e.g., loss of romantic partners, property)The presentation of negatively valued or aversive stimuli (e.g., verbal and physical abuse)But loud cars, or motorcycles, can just as easily be driven by financially successful people at the top of the social status hierarchy. These are the cars my son most admires. They’re hyper or super cars made by companies like Lamborghini, Ferrari, or Mercedes Benz. One of his favorites is the throaty land yacht by Mercedes Benz – The G Wagon. These are less emblems of rebellion and more signals of status. Both are forms of attracting attention.And so is an Audi A3. Even though it was the cheapest car Audi sold at the time, it is still a luxury German automobile. And while it is a brand I dreamed of owning since childhood, I can’t deny my purchase also helped to signal my status. If my rational brain had one out, and I viewed the purchase of the car as an appliance for mobility, I could have easily put myself into a more affordable hatchback. As one friend put it, the A3 is really just a Volkswagen Golf for grown ups. Works for me.We decided to keep Uno in the family. And sorry, son, Uno won’t be straight-piped. It’s getting a new catalytic converter…even though replacing it will cost more than the car is worth. This is the last year our kids will be driving Uno to school together and they want that little car to be a part of it.Our kids could ride a public bus to school, but it takes an hour to go 12 miles and they have afterschool activities at locations far and wide. My son took the bus for a year and it left him exhausted with little time for homework. We chose to put them in this school, but we didn’t chose the car dependent design of our surrounding cities.When it comes to car dependency, it turns out there really are two sides of the brain at work; one rational and one emotional. Gössling breaks them down into ‘real’ and ‘perceived’ dependencies. ‘Real’ dependencies are like what I just described. There are aspects of urban planning and design that intentionally require people to have a car to live a modern, happy, healthy, and productive life. The car is an appliance that gets you to the doctor, practice facility, grocery store, or school on time – places that require a car and are practically inaccessible by anyone who cannot or choses not to drive a car.‘Perceived’ dependencies are rooted in fears and emotions where, as Gössling says, “alternative transport is considered ‘dysfunctional,’ i.e., creating anxieties related to complexity (buying tickets, finding ways), claustrophobic spaces, monitoring in ‘militarized’ environments (control, security), encounters with marginalized people (homeless, alcoholics, drug addicts), or specific smells and noises. Car use may also be related to status, fright-flight-fight responses, or other fears and phobias. In such situations, car reliance may be considered an addiction.”Automakers feed this addiction through advertising, marketing, and design. As Gössling summarizes in his list of car industry appeal strategies. I can imagine these being whispered seductively to the emotional side of our brain:The car will be good: The car is increasingly less polluting and safer in trafficThe car is your home: Home and car melt into one spaceThe car is your partner: You are a more capable person in cooperation with your carThe car will protect you: It is a dangerous worldYou need the car: Appeals directed at subconsciousBe aware of government: Someone is trying to take away your carI for one am ready to break the addiction. Who knows, once our kids leave the house for college, maybe it will be time for Uno to graduate too. That someone trying to take away the car may just be me. Unless, of course, Audi releases an electric retro Audi Fox!Thank you for reading Interplace. This post is public so feel free to share it. Subscribe at interplace.io

Hello, my name is Ryan Rutherford and welcome to this short introduction for a new podcast, Skeptically Curious. So why this particular name? Let's first start with the adjective, curious. Like many people, I have an insatiable curiosity about many subjects, and in my case, this includes politics, philosophy, history, literature, psychology, religion, economics, and different branches of science such as neuroscience, evolutionary biology, climate science, and physics. The main reason for deciding to launch this new podcast venture is because I would love to further indulge my curiosity and, in the process, hopefully continue to inform and educate myself, as well as any potential listeners. Now for the adverb. The term skeptic is often bandied about, but as with the way theory has a different meaning when employed by scientists than it does in everyday usage, I have a rather more specific definition in mind. The skepticism I hope to bring to bear in my interviews and to promote through this podcast is the kind associated with the scientific method. In fact, skepticism is crucial to assessing the validity of claims and being guided by empiricism. The word scepticism is derived from a Greek term, skeptomai, which means to “consider carefully.” Paul Kurtz, the secular humanist and philosopher, described a sceptic as someone “who is willing to question any claim to truth, asking for clarity in definition, consistency in logic and adequacy in evidence. The use of scepticism is thus an essential part of objective scientific inquiry and the search for reliable knowledge.” Here my interest in science should become clearer in that I consider the scientific method to be the supreme epistemological framework ever devised by human beings to apprehend the natural world, a point I will make repeatedly in the episodes that follow. There is simply no other game in town, as it were, to reliably discover the nature of reality. This is an ever-ongoing process, however, because even though the scientific revolution has expanded our knowledge further than ever before, much yet remains to be deciphered in the grand book of nature. Other elements integral to scientifically-informed skepticism include critical thinking, rationality, and logic, all essential tools necessary to think more clearly and understand more fully. The last major theme worth noting and related to the kind of skepticism I just hinted at, is that of universality. This is a cornerstone value of the Enlightenment project that emerged in Europe in the 18th century, but which is still unfolding into the present, and probably always will so long as any society has room for improvement. The universal values associated with the Enlightenment, and which still carry immense relevance, include democracy, secularism, free speech, individual liberty, legal equality of the sexes, freedom of the press, and, crucially, the scientific method. If anyone can make a coherent argument about why any culture or country anywhere would not be better applying Enlightenment principles, enshrined perhaps most vividly in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights first promulgated in 1948, I would love to hear it. Furthermore, there is a link between universalism and science, as renowned sociologist Robert Merton identified this aspect as one of the essential characteristics of the scientific method in ‘The Normative Structure of Science.' The others were communalism, disinterestedness, and organised skepticism. Taken together, I can think of few better values to strive towards than those. Lastly, if this podcast were to have a tagline, which many seem to have, it would be my hope for everyone listening, including yours truly, to “know more and think better.” So please join me on this new journey as we engage and broaden our skeptical curiosity.

Ever wonder why when you focus on trying NOT to make a mistake, you end up making that same EXACT mistake? I certainly have.  And then you see success stories like how inventor Henry Ford created one of the most successful auto-businesses in the world, AND coined the important saying: “Whether you think you can, or you think you can't — you're right.”   Does our perception precede our reality? Or vice versa? Do we become what we THINK we are? Today, we're deconstructing the work and approaches of best-selling author and Holocaust survivor Viktor Frankl and sociologist Robert Merton among others to deconstruct how: To become an adversity whisperer, even when all things fail.  Ways to deal with disappointment so that you get out of a rut quickly. Who exactly you should or shouldn't listen to for life and work advice.  Top techniques to deal with high-pressure situations, imposter syndrome, and anxiety, especially if you feel small and invisible.  Join others in 60+ countries, Follow, Add, Collect, Save, & Download this episode. Or, listen to it now.     

Mark Schaefer, Chief Operating Officer of B Squared Media, joins the Social Pros Podcast to discuss his latest book, Cumulative Advantage, and why it’s important to try new things and seek new opportunities. Huge thanks to our amazing sponsors for helping us make this happen. Please support them; we couldn't do it without their help! This week: Salesforce Marketing Cloud Upfluence accessiBe Full Episode Details What makes someone successful? Is it money, education, connections? Sometimes it’s hard to pinpoint the turning point in someone’s life. Mark Schaefer, Chief Operating Officer of B Squared Media, says that it’s not necessarily one thing that acts as an advantage. The initial advantage that people experience can be as simple as a singular conversation. He says that whatever this one initial advantage is can lead you down an entirely different path in your life. “If you have this original advantage…you can build unstoppable momentum.” Mark’s book, Cumulative Advantage, is based on the work of sociologist Dr. Robert Merton. It follows the idea that those who have some advantage can continue to benefit from it at a much faster rate than those who don’t. Mark talks about his own experiences and advantages and how they led him to where he is today. He shares why it’s so important to try new things and find your “seam” in the status quo. In This Episode: 6:00 – What is cumulative advantage? 13:45 – How internal narratives can hold people back 16:50 – Why it’s so important to try new things 18:05 – Mark reveals why loving your own ideas too much can be a problem 19:51 – How sometimes our marketing strategy is dictated to us 20:31 – Why marketing strategy is about finding a fracture in the status quo 22:53 – Mark shares why great marketing is about nonconformity 25:34 – Why following your passion isn’t the only thing you should do 28:45 – Mark shares the idea behind a “sonic boom” 31:15 – How to build your own brand with a sonic boom 34:31 – The important balance between maintaining consistency and excellence 40:28 – How Mark defines mentorship 44:40 – Mark’s top tip for social pros Resources Get the new State of Marketing report for free from Salesforce Find out more about the community at SocialMedia.org with a special form for Social Pros listeners Download Upfluence’s Brand Influence Ranking Report Find out if your website is ADA & WCAG compliant with help from accessiBe Cumulative Advantage by Mark Schaefer Marketing Companion podcast Visit SocialPros.com for more insights from your favorite social media marketers.

Stephen M. Stigler's Law of Eponymy states that no scientific discovery is named after its original discoverer. Professor Stigler, a statistician at Chicago University, defined his own law in a tributary paper to his friend, the sociologist Robert Merton, in 1980. Merton had been famous in sociology for writing about the "self-fulfilling prophecy", amongst other things, and also for a long treatise about how often the same law or principle in science has been discovered multiple times by different people. Merton also wrote about how Isaac Newton's famous phrase "Standing on the Shoulders of Giants" was not itself even his own metaphor. Stigler's amusing and humble paper was thus, despite including some new statistical insights into the phenomenon (and even a reasoned suggestion as to its cause), more of a jovial tribute to his friend's earlier insights than an aggressive assertion of nominative priority. It self-fulfilled its own eponymous point. But the joke, and the law, stuck. And it continues to ask important questions about the nature of knowledge, the sociology - and the popular history - of science itself. Presenter: Robin Ince Produced by Alex Mansfield-Sella. First broadcast on Thursday 3 September 2020.

Our guest this week is Gerard O'Reilly. Gerard is co-CEO and chief investment officer of Dimensional Fund Advisors, an asset manager headquartered in Austin, Texas, that manages more than $600 billion using a systematic investing approach. In his role, Gerard works with his co-CEO, Dave Butler, to set the firm's vision and strategy while also overseeing its investment processes. Prior to assuming his current post, Gerard was Dimensional's head of research. In addition to serving as a Dimensional director, Gerard co-chairs the firm's Investment Research Committee and is a member of its Investment Committee. Gerard obtained his doctorate in aeronautics from the California Institute of Technology and his master's degree in high-performance computing from Trinity College, Dublin.BackgroundBio“Dimensional Eyes the Fund Sector’s Trillion-Dollar Club,” by Owen Walker, thefinancialtimes, March 31, 2019.ETF Launch “Dimensional Fund Advisors Significantly Expands ETF Offering,” dimensional.com, Nov. 17, 2020.“Dimensional Investing in an Active ETF Structure,” dimensional.com, Nov. 17, 2020.“Dimensional Funds ETFs Launch as Quant Plans to Convert Mutual Funds,” by Claire Ballentine, Bloombergquint, Nov. 19, 2020.“Why Dimensional Fund Advisors Is Converting Six of its Mutual Funds to the ETF Format,” by Lizzy Gurdus, cnbc.com, Dec. 1, 2020. Innovation, Value, and Return“Market Beaters: A Different Dimension,” by Beverly Goodman, barrons.com, Jan. 6, 2014.“3 Shades of Value,” by Daniel Sotiroff, Morningstar.com, Sept. 26, 2018.“Robert Merton on Financial Innovation,” by Robert C. Merton, dimensional.com, June 24, 2019.“The Real Reason Value Has Been Lagging Growth,” by Julie Segal, institutionalinvestor.com, Oct. 24, 2019.“Tesla’s Charge Reveals Weak Points of Indexing,” dimensional.com, Jan. 15, 2020.“Untangling Intangibles,” by Savina Rizova and Namiko Saito, dimensional.com, Sept. 28, 2020.“An Exceptional Value Premium,” dimensional.com, Oct. 5, 2020. “Securities Lending Fees as a Short-Term Driver of Stock Returns,” by Kaitlin Simpson Hendrix and Gavin Crabb, dimensional.com, Nov. 11, 2020.ESG“Sustainability Report,” dimensional.com, Dec. 31, 2020.“Burton Malkiel: ‘I Am Not a Big Fan of ESG Investing,’ ” The Long View podcast with Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak, Morningstar.com, Aug. 5, 2020.“Dimensional Finds ‘Little Evidence’ Emissions Are Linked to Expected Returns,” by Christine Idzelis, institutionalinvestor.com, Oct. 22, 2020.

Encore's 13th Annual Holiday Concert last year at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, D.C.This is the last newsletter and podcast of the year, and with the holidays upon us, I thought it would be fun to wrap up with something a little different and uplifting, after the awful year that was 2020. So - how about a little holiday music from the country’s largest choral group for singers over age 55?Encore Creativity is the nation's largest choral organization for older adults. Based in Maryland, Encore has 15 chorales and six rock and roll choruses in the metropolitan Baltimore-Washington area, as well as a chorale in New York City. The organization is led by Jeanne Kelly, a professional vocalist, performer, teacher, conductor and music administrator who started the group in 2001. Encore got its start when Jeanne was approached by Dr. Gene Cohen, the well-known pioneer researcher on creativity and older adults. Cohen, who died in 2009, was a founder of the national movement around positive aging, and he argued against the old stereotypes that aging leads to an inevitable decline in physical and mental capacity. Jeanne KellyCohen wanted Jeanne to start a choral group for older people as part of a landmark research project he was conducting. It would examine how older adults would be affected if they had the chance to study choral music under a professional conductor. So Jeane agreed to start a group. The study found a wide array of positive effects - better physical health, fewer doctor visits, less use of medication and fewer falls. And the singers reported better morale and less loneliness.One thing led to another, and Jeanne Kelly is still at it today. Encore Creativity has grown tremendously over the years, with around 800 singers participating in more than 20 programs. Most of them are up and down the east coast, but there are some affiliated programs elsewhere. These are no-audition groups - everyone is welcome - which is amazing considering the quality you will hear in the music on the podcast.This year, of course, the pandemic forced Encore to adapt - all of its programs went  virtual, which presented some challenges. But their work is coming to fruition with the group’s first virtual holiday concert, which Encore produced along with AARP. That debuts this evening - December 17th at Encore’s website. But it will be available on demand throughout the holidays at that web address.On the podcast, you’ll hear excerpts from Encore’s 2019 Kennedy Center performance. I hope you’ll give it a listen - and tune in to the entire program tonight or during the holidays.Listen to the podcast by clicking the player icon above; the podcast also can be found on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Stitcher.Not a subscriber yet? Here’s a special yearend offer!Subscribers receive the full edition of the newsletter (this free version is abridged), and they have access to my series of retirement guides at any time.Sign up now and you’ll receive the newsletter for a year at half off the normal price. Click here to sign up, or use the little green button below.Six Social Security fixes that should be on Biden’s agenda President-elect Joe Biden will be plenty busy battling the pandemic when he takes office next month, and Social Security will likely not be on top of his agenda. But nudging higher reforms for Social Security, our most important retirement program, would be a very smart move.The role of this safety net program has never been more important as the country attempts to dig out from the COVID-19 disaster. In my new Reuters column, I list six Social Security moves the new president and Congress should make.The vaccinesMedicare will cover the cost of all FDA-approved vaccines. All Americans — whether they get their health care from Medicare, Medicaid or private insurance, or they do not have coverage — will be able to get a COVID-19 vaccine at no cost, under federal rules. Vaccine rollout in nursing homes faces obstacles and confusion. Walgreens and CVS staff will soon begin vaccinations at tens of thousands of long-term care facilities. Some staff and residents are wary, and there are thorny issues of consent.Trials went well, but reassuring older adults remains a challenge. The two leading coronavirus vaccines seemed to work well in elderly trial volunteers. “I just can’t understand why people are afraid,” one 95-year-old said.Should you be worried about allergy problems? British health officials recommended that people with severe allergy reactions not be given the vaccine. Such reactions to vaccines are rare, even in people who have allergies to food or bee stings.Facebook has overhauled its approach to harmful Covid-19 health misinformation, announcing major changes that would send a much stronger message to users who have interacted with harmful falsehoods about the virus.Retirement security, women and COVIDResearching my recent story for The New York Times on how retirement security for women is impacted by COVID, I discovered MomsTown, a very interesting network for women that has launched a series of daily podcasts. The latest episode features RISE, a scholarship program committed to accelerating equity for moms of color. Check it out here. Recommended readingThe Labor Department completed the Trump administration’s fiduciary rule for retirement accounts, but it likely will be revised by the new administration . . . Trump’s $200 Medicare discount card may soon be in the mail . . . How Biden could help older workers . . . Nobel laureate Robert Merton on annuities, reverse mortgages and the key design principles of good retirement . . . Scientists reassess the need for routine medical care . . . 2020 was especially deadly, and COVID wasn’t the only culprit . . . Pandemic delays regulations regarding cheaper hearing aids . . . Improving your balance to prevent falls . . . To get a good night’s sleep, you may need to make different dietary choices . . . Six predictions for retirement planning in 2021 . . . Who is to blame for the 100,000 COVID deaths in nursing homes?Next newsletter on January 7thThe newsletter heads off now for some winter quarrantined R&R. I’ll be back with you on January 7th. Until then, I hope you have peaceful, COVID-safe holidays. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at retirementrevised.substack.com/subscribe

A brand new documentary gathering Nobel Perspectives from some of the brilliant laureates in economic sciences with whom UBS works to offer solutions to the complexities and challenges of a fast-changing world. Robert Merton is in Taipei to discuss innovation as a driver for growth.

A new documentary from The Bulletin with UBS brings together three Nobel laureates working with UBS to offer solutions to the challenges of a fast-changing world. Bengt Holmström, Robert Merton and Michael Spence discuss sustainable growth for emerging economies and the future of the millennial generation.

Scientists have to follow a lot of rules. We have IRB rules, journal submission rules, university rules - lots of rules. But some of the most important rules in science aren't rules at all - they are norms. Guiding principles that shape the work we do. In this episode, we discuss a classic paper by the sociologist Robert Merton on 4 norms that govern scientific work. Are these norms an expression of scientific values, or just a means to an end? How well do scientists follow them, individually or collectively? Is science doing as well today as Merton thought it was back in 1942 - and is following these norms really the way to make science work right? Plus: We answer a letter about question to ask a prospective PhD advisor. Links: Sanjay's muse, Mr. Autumn Man The normative structure of science by Robert Merton Normative dissonance in science: Results from a national survey of U.S. scientists by Melissa S. Anderson, Brian C. Martinson, and Raymond De Vries The Black Goat is hosted by Sanjay Srivastava, Alexa Tullett, and Simine Vazire. Find us on the web at www.theblackgoatpodcast.com, on Twitter at @blackgoatpod, on Facebook at facebook.com/blackgoatpod/, and on instagram at @blackgoatpod. You can email us at letters@theblackgoatpodcast.com. You can subscribe to us on iTunes or Stitcher. Our theme music is Peak Beak by Doctor Turtle, available on freemusicarchive.org under a Creative Commons noncommercial attribution license. Our logo was created by Jude Weaver. This is episode 67. It was recorded on October 8, 2019.

Robert Merton published a seminal paper that laid the foundation for the development of structural credit risk models. We’re going to provide an example of how it can be used for managing credit risks. We are going to present a case study based on the Merton credit risk model. http://tech.harbourfronts.com/risk-management/merton-credit-risk-model-case-study/

Summary   The self-fulfilling prophecy describes how our expectations of others can lead them to act in a way that confirms those expectations. As leaders it’s time to reset our expectations so we can get the best out of our people and stop holding them back.     Transcript   Hello and welcome to episode 26 of the Leadership Today Podcast where each week we tackle one of today’s biggest leadership challenges. This week we’re looking at self-fulfilling prophecies, and why we get what we expect. It’s a sunny Wednesday in 1932 as the CEO of Last National Bank walks towards his desk. The bank is thriving and financially strong, and Cartright Millingville is rightly proud of the business he oversees. But as he continues past the tellers, he notices the queue of people lining up is much longer than usual - nothing to worry about at this point, but certainly different to most Wednesday mornings. As he takes a seat at this desk the noise and activity in the bank gradually grows, with people becoming increasingly unruly. And that’s because this is no ordinary day - hundreds of people are lining up to withdraw all of their funds from the bank, having heard a rumour of the bank’s imminent collapse. Despite the bank’s strong financial position, it could not survive the initially false, but ultimately true, perception that it might be at risk. The bank collapsed and closed its doors permanently the same day. The false perception became fact. The sociologist Robert Merton shares this example in his classic 1948 paper - The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy. In the paper he describes how our expectations can influence the world around us. Thinking that a financial institution is at risk of collapse can ultimately lead to its collapse. In the same way, our expectations of others can lead them to behave in line with these expectations. Merton defines the self-fulfilling prophecy as “a false definition of the situation evoking a new behaviour which makes the originally false conception come true.” And, of course, this outcome strengthens the original perception of the situation, as Merton continues “for the prophet will cite the actual course of events as proof that he was right from the very beginning”. A common example of a self-fulfilling prophecy is the placebo effect. In drug trials, prospective new medications are put up against placebo pills. These placebo pills have no direct physical impact on the individual. But believing that a placebo tablet will have an impact is often enough for it to actually have that impact. For that reason, finding drugs that work better than placebos can be difficult. It’s not that a placebo is neutral - the expectation the person has of the placebo tablet actually makes that outcome more likely. More recent research demonstrates that the placebo effect is so strong, it can still work even when the person knows that they’re taking a placebo. By way of example, Dr Ted Kaptchuk treated patients with irritable bowel syndrome by giving them a tablet openly identified to the patient as a placebo. This group demonstrated significant improvement in their symptoms compared to a group that didn’t receive a placebo. As Dr Kaptchuck notes, this clearly can’t work for all medical issues. However he sees the greatest potential for so called ‘open-label’ placebo treatments in conditions that are largely measured through self-observation - conditions including pain, nausea and fatigue. Placebo tablets and treatments are a great example of the self-fulfilling prophecy. Classic experiments in schools have also shown the impact of the self-fulfilling prophecy. In the 1960s, Rosenthal and Jacobsen undertook a series of experiments with teachers and students. In one experiment, they chose a group of students at random and told teachers that those children had taken a test which showed they were “growth spurters” - that they had high potential and were likely to experience great progress in the year to come. The children weren’t aware of this finding - only the teachers knew. But the group was actually not special - they hadn’t taken a test and had no reason to advance more quickly than their peers. At the end of the year the evidence was in - the students identified as “growth spurters” to the teachers demonstrated significantly greater improvement across the year than their peers. Believing a student had greater potential led them to demonstrate greater potential. This research has been replicated many times and while some more recent research has questioned the size of the effect, the effect is still there. So how does this work? It’s believed teachers’ expectations impact the way they treat their students and this, in turn, changes the behaviour of the students, helping them to reach those expectations. If I think a student has high potential, I’ll treat them differently, by giving them more opportunities to develop and demonstrate this potential. Research has found this same effect alive and well in our organisations too, where supervisor expectations can modify performance. Which raises another point - having low expectations can also lead people to reduced performance. As a leader, findings like these should make us pause and think: What expectations do I have of my people? What evidence do I have for these expectations? Are my expectations limiting the performance and potential of my people? What if we wiped the slate clean as leaders and expected more out of our people? What impact might that have? What if we expect that people turn up to work wanting to do a good job. That people can and want to develop and improve. That if the conditions are right, people can deliver even more than what we expect of them. While we’re at it, what expectations do we have of ourselves? Are there limiting beliefs you have about yourself that lead people to treat you differently? Perhaps you don’t expect to get a promotion, and this leads others to see you as less worthy of a promotion. Perhaps you joke about being lazy, which leads others to see you as lazy. You might take some time this week to consider your strengths. One way to do this is to take a survey like the VIA Character Strengths which can help identify your unique strengths. Embracing your strengths will help you to present more confidently to others, and change the way they view you in line with the expectations you place on yourself. Let me know how you go, and have a great week.     References   The Self-Fulfilling ProphecyAuthor(s): Robert K. MertonSource: The Antioch Review, Vol. 8, No. 2 (Summer, 1948), pp. 193-210 https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/placebo-can-work-even-know-placebo-201607079926 Eden, D. (1984). Self-fulfilling prophecy as a management tool: Harnessing Pygmalion. The Academy of Management Review, 9(1), 64-73. VIA Character Strengths Survey - available free - www.viacharacter.org/www/Character-Strengths-Survey

A bona fide living legend, Dr. Robert C. Merton was one of the first true scientists to enter - and revolutionize - the world of finance. A distinguished professor at both MIT and Harvard, Merton was awarded the 1997 Nobel Prize in Economics. Merton breaks down what he sees as a looming potential financial crisis, just over the horizon: the underfunding of the baby boom generation's retirement savings.

Recensione del libro "La Profezia che si Autorealizza" di Davide Lo PrestiCome può una semplice pillola di zucchero, produrre effetti realmente benefici? In che modo, l'idea di non essere all'altezza di un compito può finire col sabotarci? Attraverso quali sottili meccanismi i nostri pregiudizi tendono a creare delle conferme esterne? Dall’Effetto Placebo all’Effetto Nocebo, dall’Effetto Pigmalione all’Effetto Lucifero, dagli studi di Paul Watzlawick e Giorgio Nardone ai pioneristici contributi di Robert Merton e William Thomas, nel mondo scientifico è ormai ampiamente riconosciuto il potere delle aspettative di costruire la realtà.-------Vuoi migliorare il tuo benessere e scoprire i 4 pilastri della crescita personale?Iscriviti gratis a "HAPPINESS", il video percorso per coltivare la tua Felicità . Clicca qui https://www.psylife.it/happiness Ti piace la Psicologia Pratica e vuoi vivere alla grande?Iscriviti gratis a PSYLIFE, la grande community di Psicologia e Crescita Personale che mette il turbo al tuo benessere. Clicca qui: https://www.psylife.it/iscrizioneVisita il sito http://www.robertoausilio.it Metti Like alla Pagina Facebook https://www.facebook.com/robertoausiliopsicologo/

Recensione del libro "La Profezia che si Autorealizza" di Davide Lo PrestiCome può una semplice pillola di zucchero, produrre effetti realmente benefici? In che modo, l'idea di non essere all'altezza di un compito può finire col sabotarci? Attraverso quali sottili meccanismi i nostri pregiudizi tendono a creare delle conferme esterne? Dall’Effetto Placebo all’Effetto Nocebo, dall’Effetto Pigmalione all’Effetto Lucifero, dagli studi di Paul Watzlawick e Giorgio Nardone ai pioneristici contributi di Robert Merton e William Thomas, nel mondo scientifico è ormai ampiamente riconosciuto il potere delle aspettative di costruire la realtà.-------Vuoi migliorare il tuo benessere e scoprire i 4 pilastri della crescita personale?Iscriviti gratis a "HAPPINESS", il video percorso per coltivare la tua Felicità . Clicca qui https://www.psylife.it/happiness Ti piace la Psicologia Pratica e vuoi vivere alla grande?Iscriviti gratis a PSYLIFE, la grande community di Psicologia e Crescita Personale che mette il turbo al tuo benessere. Clicca qui: https://www.psylife.it/iscrizioneVisita il sito http://www.robertoausilio.it Metti Like alla Pagina Facebook https://www.facebook.com/robertoausiliopsicologo/

The eleventh NewRetirement podcast. This time, Steve Chen is joined by guest professor Bob Merton — Nobel laureate and professor at MIT — and discusses Professor Merton's thoughts on what's wrong with retirement today. They address how the focus of the entire retirement industry is askew, how target day funds are allegedly detrimental to an investment portfolio, Professor Merton's half-century with FinTech, and much more. Recording, editing done by Davorin Robison. © 2018 NewRetirement Inc.

Strain Theory, by Robert Merton, provides a way to understand how society adds in the construction of motives for individuals to commit crime. The movie "Going In Style" provides the backdrop to which this theory will be applied.

Strain Theory, by Robert Merton, provides a way to understand how society adds in the construction of motives for individuals to commit crime. The movie "Going In Style" provides the backdrop to which this theory will be applied.

This intimate discussion between investment journalist Amanda White and the MIT Sloan School of Management distinguished professor of finance and Nobel Laureate, Robert C Merton, traverses much ground; from financial innovation and the use of technology, to the future of active management and the looming global retirement crisis. The discussion leaves listeners with an insight into Merton’s 50 years in academia and their profound effect on the finance industry.

In this episode, we ask: Why the buzz on the 401(k)? Who is Nobel Prize winner, Harvard University Professor Emeritus, Robert Merton and what is he saying about retirement plans? What happened to good, old-fashioned pensions? What is a 401(k) plan, exactly? When was the first 401(k) started? What did Katrina find when she googled the...

The Matthew Effect, by Robert Merton, exists all around us in our capitalist society. To overcome the Matthew Effect's impact, we must break out of our cycles and surround ourselves with better people.

James Rickards is an American lawyer and a regular commentator on finance. He is the author of The New York Times bestseller Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis, published in 2011, The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Monetary System, published in 2014, and The New Case for Gold, published in 2016.  WATCH THE FREE FULL EPISODE: https://londonreal.tv/james-rickards-the-road-to-ruin/ Chapters: 00:00 Trailer. 02:20 Brian’s thoughts on the episode. 05:28 Brian’s Introduction. 06:01 Emergence of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM), the hottest thing out there. 08:37 Insider account of when it all went wrong. 09:30 Myron Scholes, Fischer Black and Robert Merton. 11:17 Notional derivative swaps, a monster completely out of control. 13:02 Who is going to bail out the central banks in the next financial crisis, hypothetically in 2018? 18:53 Magnitude of financial consequences in1998 and 2008 financial crises. 26:59 Social unrest in financial crises. 30:39 How James forecasts terrorism attack, election results and next apocalyptical financial crisis. 41:34 “The Global Elites’ Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis.” 49:00 Break up big banks: get rid of derivatives: re-instate Glass-Steagall. 56:24 What we can do to save our families. 1:01:17 Where Trump election forecasts went wrong and the financial prospect for Trump’s policies. 1:08:05 Where James Rickards puts his money. 1:11:40 What James has learnt about an emotional, physical and financial setback. 1:16:51 How James writes and produces consistently great books. 1:20:35 Phone call to the 20 year old James Rickards 1:22:41 Best advice ever received. 1:24:01 Brian’s summing up. FULL SHOW NOTES: https://londonreal.tv/james-rickards-the-road-to-ruin/

Nobel Prize for Economics laureate Robert Merton shares his insights into the secrets of successful investing in this very special interview.