Podcast appearances and mentions of Eddie Lampert

Chris breaks down Wall Street's dirty tricks with a hilarious cow analogy. From leveraged buyouts (think Henry Kravis and Eddie Lampert draining Kmart) to hedge funds promising filet mignon while leaving you with sour milk, learn how financial “vampires” and “Masters of the Universe” profit off your losses. www.watchdogonwallstreet.com

Join us for an exciting conversation with Rebel's Chief Strategy Officer BJ Kito and Bernt Ullmann, who is often referred to as “The Man Behind the Brands.” Mr. Ullmann has been the trusted business acceleration expert by top fashion moguls and CEOs such as Daymond John, Eddie Lampert, and Tommy Hilfiger.You'll hear first-hand how Bernt went from a pizza entrepreneur to one of the world's leading experts in celebrity brand development, brand management, licensing and distribution, and monetization having contributed to the successful launches of brands for clients including Jennifer Lopez, Adam Levine, Nicki Minaj and many others. The brands he has worked with have generated over $6 billion in global sales.  This episode gets at the heart of understanding what a "brand" really is, why you should think BIG, and how seeing through the noise is the best pathway to reaching your vision.

Welcome back to the show, Brian Hirschman, Managing Partner of Hirschmann Partnership, also known as the “World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund.” Brian explains how many investors are unaware of how to value gold in comparison to other assets. He details a methodology for analyzing the gold price over long periods and notes that it is currently below the fifty year average, which could cause gold to skyrocket in the coming years. Brian outlines why gold did so well during the inflationary period of the 1970s, as it is the only asset with no counterparty risk. The lack of appreciation for gold may be due to bond investors remaining confident in their inflation expectations, but if that changes, gold will rise. High inflation can be caused by excessive debt, which is a problem for the United States and other Western nations, and Brian references the British Empire's debt to GDP ratio and eventual default. Japan's approach is different, but their situation is precarious as well, with Japanese depositors now getting negative returns when adjusted for inflation. This could lead to depositors investing elsewhere to seek returns, which could be a big problem for the Bank of Japan. Brian also discusses how global bubbles are worsening, and why we could see multiple collapses all at once. He gives some targets for where gold and the miners could head as a result, and explains why the Mining ETFs and equities have largely not kept up with the gold price. He notes that A.I. will likely not be the panacea to get us out of the coming crisis, and that demographics are contributing to entitlement problems and a general decline in the labor force, which is not good for GDP. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:30 - Perspectives & Time5:40 - Golds Recent Performance8:10 - Inflation Causes & Effects12:30 - Debt & Avoiding Default20:10 - Capital Control Contagion25:00 - Cures & Causation28:00 - Growing Global Bubbles37:30 - Gold Price Target39:30 - Resource Valuations41:20 - GDXJ Performance43:10 - A.I. & Inevitable Crisis45:30 - Demographic Issues46:55 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Gold is currently trading below its fifty year average, making it a potential investment opportunity. High inflation caused by excessive debt could lead to a gold surge. Global bubbles, demographics, and A.I. could all contribute to a coming crisis. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/HCapitalLLCWebsite: https://www.hcapital.llc Brian Hirschmann, CFA, is the Managing Partner at Hirschmann Partnership (HP) launched in 2014. Since its inception, HP has outperformed its benchmarks by a substantial margin despite being the "World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund," according to ValueWalk. Previously he was an associate at Goldman Sachs Principal Strategies (GSPS), a multi-billion dollar hedge fund whose alumni include Robert Rubin, Tom Steyer, Daniel Och, and Eddie Lampert. After GSPS, Brian returned to Los Angeles to join Hotchkis and Wiley Capital Management where he was an equity-owner and made over $1 billion in long-term investments. Brian graduated with distinction from Yale, where Professor Robert Shiller strongly influenced his investment philosophy. Robert is one of the few to predict both the dot-com and housing bubbles. Robert was also influenced by Professor David Swensen, Yale's legendary endowment manager.

You might be wondering what happened to the once-mighty Sears, and the answer is one weird libertarian CEO, Eddie Lampert, who almost single-handedly brought down one of the biggest American retail companies with the power of Randian objectivism. We also delve into the past glory days of Sears, when they sold mopeds, cars, and entire houses. But first: project car updates.Main topic at 32:00Email us with tips, stories, and unhinged rants: carsandcomrades@gmail.com //Our social media links etc: www.linktr.ee/CarsAndComrades //Music by King Gizzard & the Lizard Wizard: www.kinggizzardandthelizardwizard.com/polygondwanaland //Links/Sources:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sears //https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sears_Modern_Homes //https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allstate_(automobile) //https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allstate_(vehicle_brand) //https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eddie_Lampert //https://web.archive.org/web/20160826045037/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-07-11/at-sears-eddie-lamperts-warring-divisions-model-adds-to-the-troubles //

Old Dominion Freight Line, a transport company facing a federal lawsuit over alleged violations of the Illinois Biometric Information Privacy Act (BIPA), distributed a one-page waiver to its employees to sign voluntarily, releasing the company from the statute's obligations. This move follows the state Supreme Court's Cothron v. White Castle decision, which expanded the potential for huge damages awards under BIPA, leaving companies increasingly exposed to BIPA liability risks in Illinois. The release offers employees $500 if they voluntarily agree not to sue the company and its affiliates from all claims under BIPA. The strategy is seen as a legal attempt to mitigate exposure to BIPA liability risks. While Illinois law allows the validity of releases, the exception to the rule is willful or wanton conduct. No case law currently exists on retroactive BIPA exemption waivers, and whether the strategy succeeds is an open question. Privacy lawyers said releases such as the one used by Old Dominion aren't uncommon and could help reduce BIPA litigation exposure, but some lawyers said the releases may not prevent employees from joining class actions.Old Dominion's Biometric Waiver Offers Creative Legal TacticDominion Voting Systems' defamation lawsuit against Fox Corp has ended with a $787.5 million settlement, marking the end of a lucrative two-year legal battle for the large teams of highly-paid lawyers on both sides. At least 31 lawyers from nine different law firms worked on the case. Dominion accused Fox News of broadcasting false claims that the company's voting machines were involved in a conspiracy to rig the 2020 U.S. presidential election, and won one of the biggest settlements paid in a defamation lawsuit. Law firm Susman Godfrey, one of two firms that represented Dominion in the case, was hired on a contingency, or success-fee, basis. Partners at large corporate law firms like those representing Fox sometimes bill more than $2,000 per hour. Dominion's lead lawyers at Susman Godfrey included partners Justin Nelson, Stephen Shackelford and Davida Brook. Staple Street Capital Group LLC, the small buyout firm that owns Dominion, is also set to receive a major windfall from the settlement.Lawyers win big in $787.5 million Fox defamation case | ReutersThe US Supreme Court has ruled in favor of the Mall of America outside Minneapolis, allowing it to challenge an inexpensive lease signed with Sears Holdings Corp in 1991, which it claims it should no longer be bound to. The lease provided Sears with a three-story, 120,000-square foot location at the mall for a rent of just $10 a year. The Mall of America has argued that it should be allowed to charge more to rent the space Sears had occupied since it was subsequently sold to a new owner during the department store chain's bankruptcy. The ruling means that MOAC Mall Holdings can proceed with its challenge to the lease in a lower court. Sears filed for bankruptcy in 2018 and its assets were sold for $5.2bn to former chairman Eddie Lampert and his hedge fund ESL Investments.US Supreme Court allows Mall of America to fight cheap Sears lease | ReutersAI companies Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt are asking a San Francisco federal court to dismiss a lawsuit filed by artists Sarah Andersen, Kelly McKernan, and Karla Ortiz in January. The artists accused the companies of committing mass copyright infringement by using their work in generative AI systems without authorization. The companies argue that the AI-generated images are not similar to the artists' work and that the lawsuit did not identify any specific images that were allegedly misused. They also argue that the lawsuit does not identify any work by the plaintiffs that the companies supposedly used as training data.The legal battle between artists and AI companies highlights the challenges of prosecuting copyright infringement cases involving generative AI systems. As AI algorithms are designed to create new works by training on large data sets, it is difficult to prove that any one image was used to create a specific output. The companies have thus asked a San Francisco federal court to dismiss the proposed class action lawsuit, arguing that the AI-generated images are not substantially similar to the artists' work and that the lawsuit did not identify any specific images that were allegedly misused – but if the underlying technology requires the use of the images, or images like them, in order to create the model that generates the output, is that not infringement? It is unclear. The case underscores the need for greater clarity on the legal implications of AI-generated works and the importance of developing new standards to protect the rights of artists and other content creators in the digital age.AI companies ask U.S. court to dismiss artists' copyright lawsuit | Reuters Get full access to Minimum Competence - Daily Legal News Podcast at www.minimumcomp.com/subscribe

Frank Brosens is a co-founder of Taconic Capital, an $8 billion event-driven, multi-strategy hedge fund founded in 1999. Frank started his career at Goldman Sachs, where he joined and later ran Bob Rubin's legendary risk arbitrage desk. That group became one of the top breeding grounds for hedge fund founders, including among its ranks Tom Steyer at Farallon, Richard Perry at Perry Partners, Danny Och at Och-Ziff Capital, Eddie Lampert at ESL, Eric Mindich at Eton Park, and Dinakar Singh at TPG-Axon. Our conversation covers Frank's path to the Goldman risk arb desk, the culture that made it a success, and his eventual decision to leave the firm. We then discuss the founding of Taconic, its partnership and investment philosophy, and its approach to risk management, capital allocation, and the pursuit of opportunities. Along the way, Frank highlights examples that demonstrate the benefits of a carefully aligned culture for teammates and clients across organizational structure, portfolio management, and compensation. Access Stream by AlphaSense Free Trial Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership

Our special guest this week is Ron Thurston, fellow Rethink Retail top influencer, best-selling author of Retail Pride: The Guide to Celebrating Your Accidental Career, and deeply experienced retail executive, having done stings at Intermix, YSL, Bonobos, Tory Burch, Apple and more.Ron joins us from his Airsteam just a couple of months into his "Retail In America" tour, which will literally take him from sea to shining sea. He's on a journey to discover everyday retail heroes and we find him just outside of Memphis eager to talk about all that he is learning. It's a wide-ranging discussion of what it's really like on the ground, away from the often narrow views from the fashion hubs of New York and LA. But just to keep it a wee bit glam, we also learn about Ron's recent chat with none other than Sarah Jessica Parker.But first we we dive into the big retail news of the week, which starts of with how recent earnings highlight the continuing bifurcation of retail that is being exacerbated by inflation and rebalancing to pre-COVID spending patterns. We also discuss, JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon's revised weather forecast, get additional proof that everything Eddie Lampert touches dies. We then conclude with Missguided's "named to fail" strategy and former Neiman Marcus CEO Karen Katz's move to become the new CEO of Intermix.  About RonRon Thurston is a highly accomplished retail leadership Executive, Board Advisor, and Amazon Bestselling Author with extensive experience leading retail operations for America's most prominent brands. He is adept at turning around underperforming businesses, developing and implementing innovative growth strategies, architecting improved training programs, building high-performing and dedicated teams, launching new brands, expanding brands into new markets, and ensuring customer growth and satisfaction. In 2021 and 2022, Ron was named one of the top 100 Retail Influencers globally, is a board member of GOODWILL NY/NJ, and currently sits on the advisory boards of several emerging retail technology brands, including Reflex Careers, Job Pixel, and IMMERSS. In 2022 Ron is launching his audio and video platforms for a year-long tour called “Retail In America,” live from an Airstream trailer to discover the real retail heroes all across the country. About UsSteve Dennis is an advisor, keynote speaker and author on strategic growth and business innovation. You can learn more about Steve on his       website.    The expanded and revised edition of his bestselling book  Remarkable Retail: How To Win & Keep Customers in the Age of Disruption is now available at  Amazon or just about anywhere else books are sold. Steve regularly shares his insights in his role as a      Forbes senior contributor and on       Twitter and       LinkedIn. You can also check out his speaker "sizzle" reel      here.Michael LeBlanc  is the Founder & President of M.E. LeBlanc & Company Inc and a Senior Advisor to Retail Council of Canada as part of his advisory and consulting practice.   He brings 25+ years of brand/retail/marketing & eCommerce leadership experience, and has been on the front lines of retail industry change for his entire career.  Michael is the producer and host of a network of leading podcasts including Canada's top retail industry podcast,       The Voice of Retail, plus  Global E-Commerce Tech Talks  ,      The Food Professor  with Dr. Sylvain Charlebois and now in its second season, Conversations with CommerceNext!  You can learn more about Michael   here  or on     LinkedIn. Be sure and check out Michael's latest venture for fun and influencer riches - Last Request Barbecue,  his YouTube BBQ cooking channel!

Tom welcomes Brian Hirschman back to the show. Brian is Managing Partner of Hirschmann Partnership which is occasionally referred to as the "World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund." Brian expects inflation to persist for longer than most investors expect due to massive government debt. Inevitably, the U.S. government will default which will send miners and gold far higher. We could expect some benefits from labor and supply chains improving but inflation has many causes. At some point, government debt will matter, and much higher inflation will result. Investors shouldn't be too concerned about interest rates as the bigger driver of gold will be risks of default and inflation. Markets are different today due to the enormous size of the global asset bubbles. Gold will move higher when investors realize that inflation will be here to stay. Crypto remains a much smaller asset class than gold and therefore the impact of crypto is likely not that significant. Many crypto investors are more speculative and most aren't that interested in metals. Gold is the ultimate low-risk asset whereas cryptocurrencies remain risky speculative assets. Over the long term, the gold price will drive the mining equities much higher and we're starting to see this occurring. Gold miners should go up much higher than the returns on gold when the bubbles start to burst. All governments have too much debt and are trying to keep rates low thru regulations. Banks now own four trillion in debt securities issued by the Fed. Should foreign debt holders realize the risks then they will start selling their treasuries. This could easily trigger a crisis since we can't control other countries with regulations. Marginally higher interest rates today will likely not have much impact on inflation but could impact default risks. Brian compares the status of the U.S. with that of the last European debt crisis. China's real estate bubble is even worse than that of the United States. When it pops we will see severe impacts on global markets. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Inflation Continues4:06 - Gold, Inflation & Rates7:15 - Crypto Impacts9:56 - Mining Stocks11:40 - Rates & Regulations15:09 - Fed Trapped?18:04 - Rates Vs. Inflation19:00 - Yield Curve Control20:58 - Demographics & Savings23:59 - China Bubbles26:57 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Continued inflation expectations and risks of government debt default.Global asset bubbles, interest rates, and investor risk.The outlook for gold and the miners. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/HCapitalLLCWebsite: https://www.hcapital.llc Brian Hirschmann, CFA, is the Managing Partner at Hirschmann Partnership (HP) launched in 2014. Since its inception, HP has outperformed its benchmarks by a substantial margin despite being the "World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund," according to ValueWalk. Previously he was an associate at Goldman Sachs Principal Strategies (GSPS), a multi-billion dollar hedge fund whose alumni include Robert Rubin, Tom Steyer, Daniel Och, and Eddie Lampert. After GSPS, Brian returned to Los Angeles to join Hotchkis and Wiley Capital Management where he was an equity-owner and made over $1 billion in long-term investments. Brian graduated with distinction from Yale, where Professor Robert Shiller strongly influenced his investment philosophy. Robert is one of the few to predict both the dot-com and housing bubbles. Robert was also influenced by Professor David Swensen, Yale's legendary endowment manager.

For over a century, Sears was one of this nation's leading retailers. In the 1920s, you could literally buy a house from Sears. The postwar years saw Sears moving into malls across the land. KMart started in 1962, the same year that saw a number of other discount retailers like Target and Walmart open for business. Throughout the 1970s and 80s, KMart became the go-to place for finding things at a good price. Shoppers were on the lookout for their famous blue light specials. Over the last decade, hundreds of stores were closed and the two chains are now basically defunct. The common story is that Sears and Kmart didn't keep up with the times and they pin the blame on the rise on Amazon. Now the online retail behemoth does have a role in the demise of Sears, but it's only a small role. Actually, the reason Sears and Kmart have vanished from American retail is because of one man- the one-time CEO of Sears Holdings, Eddie Lampert. In this bonus episode, we hear from retail journalist Warren Shoulberg who has followed Lampert and what he did to Sears. Shoulberg is a long-time expert in all things retail and the right person to talk about what really happened to Sears. This part of a larger interview I did with Shoulberg on retail will show up in a few days, but it's important to hear this story about one retailer and what its downfall says about American society in general. So let's hear from Warren Shoulberg. Warren Shoulberg's Column in Forbes Eddie Lampert and BS The Sears Saga No One Knows Transcript to Part One Support this Podcast: https://ko-fi.com/dennislsandersBe sure to rate us and leave a review. Share the podcast with others! Questions? Send an email: denminn@gmail.com.website: enroutepodcast.orgTwitterFacebook PageYouTube: https://bit.ly/enrouteyt

This episode features an interview with Warren Shoulberg, award-winning journalist and consultant for the retailing and home furnishings industries. He is a regular contributor to The Robin Report, Forbes.com, The Business of Home, and his own blog, Stupidbusiness.com.On this episode, Warren gives us his take on a wide range of contemporary retail issues, including technological innovation and supply-chain backlog, and shares why he dislikes the terms “brick-and-mortar,” “omnichannel,” and “upholstery.”3 Takeaways:Get out there. Talk to your customers, go into your stores to ensure they are executing on a local level, and keep your nose to the grindstone.On the supply side, technology is not going to save the day in industries that are labor-intensive. Retailers must understand where their competitive levers lie and the distinctiveness of their businesses.While some retail buzzwords get low marks from Warren, here is one that doesn't: “retail-as-campus.” The immersive, experiential concept is presenting a different way to engage shoppers. Multiple structures offer retail, dining, and even lodging in an experience that cannot be replicated online.Key Quotes:“That's why I like the retail business: because you can just see with your own eyes what's going on, and they can't fool you.”“Any time I run into an independent retailer who says, ‘I can't do E-commerce,' I say, ‘You're crazy, because you're willing to write off 30% of the potential market.'”“You've got to go out and see the stores. If you don't - if you're just sitting on your computer or your phone all day - you're going to miss a lot of stuff.”--This podcast is presented by Dell Technologies and Intel. Together they help you realize digital transformation across retail by driving IT innovation to better engage with today's connected consumer. Learn more at DellTechnologies.com/retail and Intel.com/retail.

What an amazing episode we have for you. We are blessed to be joined by a legend in the fashion industry. Often referred to as “The Man Behind the Brands”, Mr. Ullmann has been the trusted business acceleration expert by top fashion moguls and CEOs such as Daymond John, Eddie Lampert, and Tommy Hilfiger.Mr. Ullmann is arguably the world’s leading expert in celebrity brand development, brand management, licensing and distribution, and monetization having contributed to the successful launches of brands for clients including Jennifer Lopez, Adam Levine, Nicki Minaj and many others. The brands he has worked with have generated over $6 billion dollars in global sales.One of Bernt's businesses, Celebrity Lifestyle Brands, Inc. is a holding and management company that partners with celebrities & Influencers to monetize their social media following primarily through e-Commerce and building brands.The CLB team combines e-Commerce technology, digital marketing strategies, and over 30 years of experience in the global fashion licensing, manufacturing, and distribution industry.By leveraging proprietary technology, an extensive network of distribution partners, and a unique corporate acquisition business model, CLB seeks to become the premier trusted partner to celebrities & influencers who desire to turn their celebrity into a profitable business empire.Bernt and a previous Side Hustle City Goes, Greg Writer, have teamed up on Launchcart as well. If you missed that episode go back and have a listen. They offer a built-in catalog of print-on-demand products, you'll have over 300 products to customize and sell instantly, with no inventory costs, no upfront costs and you pay AFTER you sell an item.With his experience in fashion this will be a valuable listening experience for anyone considering launching their own brand.If you would like to learn more then take advantage of this free book that Bernt is offering our listeners.Other ways to connect and learn more from his amazing experience:https://berntullmann.com/https://www.facebook.com/BerntUllmannCBA/  Support the show (https://paypal.me/sidehustlecity)

Tom welcomes Brian Hirschman, Managing Partner of Hirschmann Partnership, also also considered by ValueWalk to be the "World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund." Brian discusses how all the bubbles have only grown in recent months, but their gold investments continue to perform very well. Brian discusses how the US has crossed the 130% GDP to Debt level and last year, and they reviewed past outcomes of countries at these debt levels. The conclusion from the study was that default would be all but inevitable. Warren Buffet said recently, "If governments could always borrow at negative interest rates, it would have been discovered 2000 years ago." People today have too much faith in the government's ability to borrow. He explains how equities are overvalued when measured by CAPE metrics. Today we are at levels twice the norm, which means that a pullback of 60% would be required to return to normal. Bond markets are also likely to burst, which would likely mean a drop of 80%. We seem to have another housing bubble, along with the price to rent and price to income levels, all being back nearly at 2006 levels. China produced and used in one month more cement than the US utilizes in a year. If China bursts, it would almost certainly cripple global growth. The next crisis could easily be the worst crisis since the great depression. At this point, nearly anything could trigger such an event. Brian remains a gold bull and believes any crisis should be a significant windfall for investors with mining equities. Since the market cap of gold equities is relatively small, he expects a lot of new capital could come flooding in looking for a new home. He discusses how they measure and compare the value of mining equities. He argues that physical gold's nominal returns are going to underperform most other investments. This is why funds like Berkshire Hathaway chose to invest in Barrick Gold rather than physical metal. He explains how they adjust and rebalance their portfolio depending on expected future returns and why this is important for mining equities. Lastly, he touches on two markets that he feels are in bubbles, bitcoin, and global housing markets. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Intro0:37 - Bonds & Collapse8:33 - Yield Curve Control11:49 - Gold Expectations13:50 - Foreign Investment14:32 - Silver Investing?15:29 - Gold Value Investing16:25 - Valuing Equities18:10 - Physical Gold Investing23:23 - Factoring Risk27:47 - Portfolio Rebalancing30:17 - Gold and Oil32:34 - Bitcoin & Bubbles37:23 - Global Real Estate38:38 - CPI & Inflation39:52 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Debt, GDP, interest rates, and collapse.Measuring equity valuations.China's bubbles and risk to global markets.Physical metal vs. Mining Equities Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/HCapitalLLCWebsite: https://www.hcapital.llcHirschmann Capital Letter (pdf): https://tinyurl.com/6eccw962 Brian Hirschmann, CFA, is the Managing Partner at Hirschmann Partnership (HP) launched in 2014. Since its inception, HP has outperformed its benchmarks by a substantial margin despite being the "World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund," according to ValueWalk. Previously he was an associate at Goldman Sachs Principal Strategies (GSPS), a multi-billion dollar hedge fund whose alumni include Robert Rubin, Tom Steyer, Daniel Och, and Eddie Lampert. After GSPS, Brian returned to Los Angeles to join Hotchkis and Wiley Capital Management and where he was an equity-owner and made over $1 billion in long-term investments. Brian graduated with distinction from Yale, where Professor Robert Shiller strongly influenced his investment philosophy. Robert is one of the few to predict both the dot-com and housing bubbles. Robert was also influenced by Professor David Swensen, Yale's legendary endowment manager.

Often referred to as “The Man Behind the Brands”, Mr. Ullmann has been the trusted business acceleration expert by top fashion moguls and CEOs such as Daymond John, Eddie Lampert, and Tommy Hilfiger. Mr. Ullmann is arguably the world’s leading expert in celebrity brand development, brand management, licensing and distribution, and monetization having contributed to the successful launches of brands for clients including Jennifer Lopez, Adam Levine, Nicki Minaj, Bethenny Frankel, Catherine Zeta-Jones and many others. The brands he has worked with have generated over $6 billion dollars in global sales. Connect with Bernt on social media here: Instagram, Facebook, LinkedIn, and his website. Find Me On Social: Instagram, Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook  www.mattlebris.com   Rate, Subscribe and Share!

Tom welcomes Brian Hirschman, Managing Partner of Hirschmann Partnership. They are known as the "World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund." Brian says there is some truth to that statement because they are bearish on many sectors. Brian is concerned about US government debt levels as they will soon reach 144%. Those levels are hazardous as almost all countries tend to default around 130%. The only modern example of a country that hasn't defaulted is present-day Japan, but even then, it's only a matter of time. Today, both bonds and stocks are ignoring the risks of default. He discusses how the Fed conducts it's bond purchases and why they are "the world's greatest hedge fund." If the US government has a debt crisis, he believes that could lead to hyperinflation. Not only is the United States having massive debt problems, but so are most countries around the world, including other central banks. On top of all that, China has significant imbalances, overcapacity, and mal-investment. We could have a situation where a crisis spreads from country to country and region to region simultaneously. This period could make the first half of 2020 look uneventful. He compares the global economic policy of suppressing financial crises to putting out small fires whenever they occur in a forest. Eventually, fuel (debt) builds up, and the fires become uncontrollable. Keep in mind the next debt crisis could occur at a government level, and then they won't be able to bail out the banks and private sector. Instead, you might see austerity measures. He believes the next inflation crisis will be worse than the 1970s. He discusses how high gold could go in a crisis and the best ways for investors to protect themselves. Brian talks about the advantages of smaller mining companies in terms of valuations than those bundled into ETFs. Time Stamp References:0:40 - Why they are called bearish.1:30 - Country Debt to GDP and defaults.5:20 - Fed printing vs. borrowing.10:40 - Treasury yields and bonds.12:00 - Banks, the Fed, and lending standards.13:50 - Pro Fed/Dollar arguments.17:10 - China, debt issuance and systemic risk.22:00 - Government debt reaching a breaking point.25:00 - Gold mining ETF and valuations.27:45 - Determining value with miners.29:10 - Warren Buffett discusses debt risk. Talking Points From This Episode US and Global GDP to Debt LevelsWhy the next debt crisis could be government debt.Risk of a global systemic debt crisis.Gold and miners. Brian Hirschmann, CFA, is the Managing Partner at Hirschmann Partnership (HP) launched in 2014. Since its inception, HP has outperformed its benchmarks by an extremely large margin despite being the "World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund," according to ValueWalk. Previously he was an associate at Goldman Sachs Principal Strategies (GSPS), a multi-billion dollar hedge fund whose alumni include Robert Rubin, Tom Steyer, Daniel Och, and Eddie Lampert. After GSPS, Brian returned to Los Angeles to join Hotchkis and Wiley Capital Management and where he was an equity-owner and made over $1 billion in long-term investments. Brian graduated with distinction from Yale, where his investment philosophy was strongly influenced by Professor Robert Shiller, one of the few to predict both the dot-com and housing bubbles, and by his senior essay advisor, Professor David Swensen, Yale's legendary endowment manager. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/HCapitalLLCWebsite: https://www.hcapital.llc

"It wasn't only real estate that Lampert signed over to himself. In 2014, Sears sold Land's End, a clothing brand, to a consortium that was two-thirds controlled by ESL. Today, the brand has a rough market value of $314 million. In 2016, Sears sold Craftsman brand tools to Black & Decker for $900 million. The profits were used to pay off debt, including to Lampert. In 2017, Die Hard batteries were put up for sale. And this year, Lampert has made a $400 million bid for Kenmore appliances, the crown jewel of what remains at Sears, along with an $80 million bid for Sears Home Improvement stores. So the leadership of the Sears empire—Lampert—is gradually selling off bits and pieces of it, mostly to Lampert. The cash generated from those deals in large part serviced Sears's debt, the payments on which also went to Lampert. And now, having put Sears into bankruptcy, the top creditor—Lampert—stands to gain from the final fire sale." https://prospect.org/economy/sears-gutted-ceo/

The Power Of Brand Consistency The concept of branding is thrown around a lot these days but there’s few with a better handle on what that means than Bernt Ullman. Bernt has a weighty and impressive trail of success in fashion and branding with the likes of Donna Karan whom he took from 40m to 250m in international revenue. Roland and Bernt talk today and garner some great takeaways for you, our listeners. Mr. Ullmann has been the trusted business acceleration expert by CEOs such as Daymond John, Eddie Lampert, and Tommy Hilfiger. He’s arguably the world’s leading expert in celebrity brand development, brand management, licensing and distribution, and monetization - having contributed to the successful launches of brands for clients including Jennifer Lopez, Adam Levine, Nicki Minaj, and many others. The brands he has worked with have generated over $6 billion dollars in global sales, and as such, some call him the “6 Billion Dollar Man”. But Bernt didn’t start out in high fashion, he had a more down-to-earth start with his launch of Scandinavia's first home delivery pizza service, Pizza Pronto, in Copenhagen. All that to say, we think you’ll enjoy his story and will benefit from his experience! If you want to dive deeper, check out his website and his book, the Billion Dollar Branding Blueprint. "You cannot be 'best in class' within every single product category. It's just not even credible... I believe in concentrate and dominate. Be really, really good at what you're good at. If you want to be a global lifestyle brand, you need to have a number of different product verticals, but it's not logical that you're the best operator for every single vertical."- Bernt Ullman Listen For The 'Good, Better, Best' pricing strategy that Bernt learned at Donna Karan that caters to people who can’t afford higher-end products and pricing, but still protects the feeling of exclusivity at the higher end. 'Halo Products' and Brand Essence. Consider the emotion you want your brand to evoke and make sure that feeling is consistent across all your product lines and everything you do as a company. This is Brand Consistency.  How licensing can help you expand your brand and ensure better quality - without tapping out your resources The three ingredients that make up all great brands: Authenticity, Aspiration, and Credibility. Find out what you can do when you have all these under your belt! What Bernt learned from his first entrepreneurial venture, Pizza Pronto. How he moved to LA and managed to get a foot in the door at Barneys, Nordstrom, and Nieman Marcus. How he and his partner worked with a ‘factoring company’ to fund the orders (listen for Roland’s explanation of what a factoring company is/does). How he took Donna Karan from $40 million to $250 million in international revenue. The Price Anchoring tactics FUBU used to sell ‘boatloads’ of high-end jeans. How to put your brand ‘on steroids’. “At the end of the day, brands are about trust". - Bernt Ullmann   Click to visit our website or find us on your preferred podcast player. References and Links Mentioned: The Power of Broke by Daymond John The Billion Dollar Branding Blueprint.    Contact & Follow Roland On Facebook  On Instagram  Through his Website. Contact & Follow Bernt Ullmann At his Website On Facebook On LinkedIn   Subscribe & Review Business Lunch With Roland Frasier Podcast! Thanks so much for joining us this week. Want to subscribe to Business Lunch with Roland Frasier? Have some feedback you’d like to share? Connect with us on ApplePodcasts and leave us an honest review! Your feedback will not only help us improve the show, but it will help us connect with more high flyers like you.     Follow @BizLunchPodcast on Twitter and Instagram

Today's episode is a tragedy in three acts, bringing together three seemingly-unrelated stories: (1) understanding the looming crisis at the Pension Benefits ordonuarantee Corporation; (2) figuring out who Gordon Hartogensis is and why he's about to gain control over potentially hundreds of billions of dollars in assets; and finally, (3) putting together all the pieces to see how President Trump has acted to protect his crony, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, from potential criminal and civil liability in connection with his management of Sears. Strap in; it's going to be a bumpy ride! We begin in Act I, in which the guys break down the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA), its creation, the Pension Benefits Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), and the developments over the last 45 years that have pushed the PBGC to the brink of collapse. Act II, then, takes over with the recently-appointed International Man of Mystery, Gordon Hartogensis, to lead the PBGC. Who is this guy, and what has he done to inspire confidence that he can right the ship? Listen and find out! Act III weaves these stories together with the ongoing civil lawsuit by Sears against Steven Mnuchin and his buddy Eddie Lampert, who are alleged to have looted Sears's assets, driving it into bankruptcy. You'll never guess who bought those assets in bankruptcy... or, perhaps you'll instantly guess who did. After all that, it's time for the answer to Thomas Takes the Bar Exam #128 involving a crazy fast-food heist involving an imaginary sniper and the drive-thru lane. Did you get it right?? Appearances None! If you'd like to have either of us as a guest on your show, drop us an email at openarguments@gmail.com. Show Notes & Links Check out ERISA, 29 U.S.C. §§ 1001 et seq. You can also read the text and a breakdown of the key provisions of the PPA, which passed the Senate 93-5. For a sad laugh, check out the PBGC's own scant "Who the hell is Gordon Hartogensis?" page. The first person to break this story was Politico's Ian Kullgren, who wrote this article. We first covered the Sears/Lampert/Mnuchin story back in Episode 273, and you can read the Warren/Ocasio-Cortez letter here. -Support us on Patreon at:  patreon.com/law -Follow us on Twitter:  @Openargs -Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/openargs/, and don't forget the OA Facebook Community! -For show-related questions, check out the Opening Arguments Wiki, which now has its own Twitter feed!  @oawiki -And finally, remember that you can email us at openarguments@gmail.com!

Today's episode breaks down the statement made this week by Robert Mueller in connection with his report and investigation. Is it a good sign? Is it a bad sign? Is it both? Listen and find out! We begin, however, with a bit of housekeeping, including a recommendation that you check out Episode 194 of Serious Inquiries Only (featuring Eli Bosnick!) for the official OA answer to all things milkshaking. We also preview a bit of next week's show, which involves revisiting Eddie Lampert, Steve Mnuchin, and the alleged looting of Sears. Is it worse than you think? (It's always worse than you think.) Next, we check in on four Supreme Court orders that relate to gerrymandering. Is that worse than you think? (It's always worse than you think.) After all that, we're not even halfway done! Our main segment breaks down the Supreme Court's brief, two-page per curiam order in Box v. Planned Parenthood... and the sprawling, nonsensical 20-page concurrence written by Clarence Thomas that literally repeats David Barton-level falsehoods. You'll be angry, but you won't want to miss it. Then, it's time to Yodel! We carefully break down Robert Mueller's statement regarding his investigation and what it means for the future. In so doing, we also analyze Mueller's claims regarding the now-infamous 2000 OLC memo as to whether a sitting president can be indicted. After all that, it's time for an all-new Thomas Takes The Bar Exam #128 involving a crazy criminal effort to steal money from a fast-food drive-through by pretending to have a sniper... look, you'll just have to listen and play along, okay?!? Appearances None! If you'd like to have either of us as a guest on your show, drop us an email at openarguments@gmail.com. Show Notes & Links For the correct take on milkshaking, check out Serious Inquiries Only Episode 194 with Eli Bosnick. We first covered the alleged looting of Sears by Eddie Lampert and Steve Mnuchin in Episode 273 and that was picked up by our friends Elizabeth Warren and AOC. These are the four orders the Supreme Court granted in gerrymandering cases: A. HOUSEHOLDER, LARRY, ET AL. V. A. PHILIP RANDOLPH INST., ET AL. B. CHABOT, STEVE, ET AL. V. A. PHILIP RANDOLPH INST., ET AL C. MICHIGAN SENATE, ET AL. V. LEAGUE OF WOMEN VOTERS, ET AL. D. CHATFIELD, LEE, ET AL. V. LEAGUE OF WOMEN VOTERS, ET AL. Click here to read the Supreme Court’s Opinion in Box v. Planned Parenthood Click here for the peer-reviewed research showing that Sanger was not a eugenicist; and here for the article showing she wasn’t a racist. This is a transcript of Robert Mueller’s testimony and this is the 2000 OLC Memo. Support us on Patreon at:  patreon.com/law -Follow us on Twitter:  @Openargs -Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/openargs/, and don't forget the OA Facebook Community! -For show-related questions, check out the Opening Arguments Wiki, which now has its own Twitter feed!  @oawiki -And finally, remember that you can email us at openarguments@gmail.com!

Today on Crain's Daily Gist, host Amy Guth discusses the latest moves in Illinois' recreational marijuana bill with Crain's reporter John Pletz. Plus: The Boeing crisis takes a toll on airlines as the 737 Max is expected to stay grounded for months, Chicago-based United ranks last in a satisfaction survey, Eddie Lampert sues Sears, the South Loop could get two new residential projects, and the Government Accountability Office says manufacturing institutes need benchmarks for progress. Continue the conversation with #CrainsDailyGist.

Today's episode features a deep dive into a just-filed lawsuit by Sears against its CEO, Eddie Lampert, and certain directors, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. The lawsuit alleges that Eddie & Steve managed to wreck not one but two long-standing American institutions. How? Why? And what does any of this have to do with one of the best comedies of all time, The Producers? Listen and find out! We begin, however, with a very brief Andrew Was Wrong malapropism in which he confused a journalist with a philosopher. (There's a comedy setup in there somewhere.) Then, it's time for the main segment, which breaks down the background on Mnuchin, especially how he teamed up with billionaire Eddie Lampert, and then how the two of them managed to turn less than a billion dollars into full ownership of both Kmart and Sears, each of which had eight-figure valuations at the time. And, as if that wasn't enough, you can find out how Lampert (allegedly) ripped off the public on Mnuchin's watch, all while enriching himself. Drain the Swamp! You'll also learn all about The Producers-style fraud. You can make more money with a flop than with a hit! After all that, it's time for the glorious return of Thomas Takes the Bar Exam -- this time, featuring guest Monica Miller, who will be joining us for a full-length interview next episode.   TTTBE question #123, however, is a dreaded real property question...will anyone be able to get it right??  Appearances None! If you'd like to have either of us as a guest on your show, drop us an email at openarguments@gmail.com. Show Notes & Links Click here to read the Sears lawsuit, and here to check out Mnuchin's Wikipedia page. This page contains a good explanation of Delaware corporate law regarding duty of loyalty. Support us on Patreon at:  patreon.com/law Follow us on Twitter:  @Openargs Facebook:  https://www.facebook.com/openargs/ Don't forget the OA Facebook Community! For show-related questions, check out the Opening Arguments Wiki, which now has its own Twitter feed!  @oawiki And email us at openarguments@gmail.com

Today on Crain's Daily Gist, host Amy Guth talks with Crain's Chicago Business tech reporter John Pletz about why the Chicago area's population declined for the fourth year in a row. Plus: Sears sues former CEO Eddie Lampert, activists file a lawsuit seeking to block a $1.3 billion subsidy for Lincoln Yards, Chicago police investigate Car2go vehicle thefts, an appellate court panel sides with Westlake Hospital and reverses an earlier order to stay open and in-flight Wi-Fi provider Gogo looks to unload space at its downtown headquarters. Follow host Amy Guth on Twitter at @AmyGuth, or continue the conversation with #CrainsDailyGist.

The boys talk about Social Learning, Amazon gives NY the finger, Jack Dorsey will censor your Twitter speech, and Eddie Lampert is EXPOSED for fraud against SEARS. Beer Belly Reviews focuses on a strange American German Vienna Virginia strange beer... Devils Backbone - Vienna Lager

Sears was on its way to the graveyard of American icons when its former CEO, a reclusive billionaire named Eddie Lampert, stepped in to buy it. Unfortunately, he’s the same CEO who led the company into bankruptcy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jack Devine, former chief of CIA’s worldwide operations, and founding partner and President of The Arkin Group, discusses North Korea, Venezuela and the mid-east. Burt Flickinger, Managing Director at Strategic Resource Group, on what Eddie Lampert is doing with Sears, and winners and losers in bricks-and-mortar retail. Mike McDonough, Chief Economist: Financial Products for Bloomberg LP, on the outlook for a China trade deal after Trump calls off his meeting with Xi. Mike McGlone, commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, on iron ore powering to its highest level since 2014, as the Vale mine crisis intensifies.

It's been a huge week for the auto industry, with developments rippling beyond Volkswagen's $50 billion push into Tesla's territory of electronic vehicles. Dan unpacks the decision by Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Volvo, jaguar, Land Rover, and Mini to boycott the Detroit Auto Show, and concludes it marks a permanent shift in the industry. “The way we buy everything is changing.” And on the heels of a podcast episode that examined why Tesla is truly vulnerable to competitors, Dan breaks down Volkswagen's decision to build an $800 million electric vehicle factory in Tennessee, part of its plan to pour $50 billion into electric vehicle production by 2023.  Then, with Eddie Lampert's eleventh hour deal to save Sears finally on the books, Dan muses on the wave of creative destruction hitting retail right now – and the sector's latest victim, poised to close 900 stores nationwide. He then introduces this week's podcast guest, Aaron Edelheit. Aaron is the CEO and Founder of Mindset Capital, a private investment firm. After being of their first investors, Aaron was also the Chief Strategy Officer of FLO Technologies and helped the company grow from a pre-revenue startup to raising $28 million and launching in over 500 Home Depot stores.  Aaron also founded and ran a successful money management firm, Sabre Value Management from 1998 to 2011. Released last year, his first book, The Hard Break: The Case for a 24/6 Lifestyle makes the case for taking one day a week off from work, email and smartphones for a more productive, healthier and more creative life.

It’s been a huge week for the auto industry, with developments rippling beyond Volkswagen’s $50 billion push into Tesla’s territory of electronic vehicles. Dan unpacks the decision by Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Volvo, jaguar, Land Rover, and Mini to boycott the Detroit Auto Show, and concludes it marks a permanent shift in the industry. “The way we buy everything is changing.” And on the heels of a podcast episode that examined why Tesla is truly vulnerable to competitors, Dan breaks down Volkswagen’s decision to build an $800 million electric vehicle factory in Tennessee, part of its plan to pour $50 billion into electric vehicle production by 2023.  Then, with Eddie Lampert’s eleventh hour deal to save Sears finally on the books, Dan muses on the wave of creative destruction hitting retail right now – and the sector’s latest victim, poised to close 900 stores nationwide. He then introduces this week’s podcast guest, Aaron Edelheit. Aaron is the CEO and Founder of Mindset Capital, a private investment firm. After being of their first investors, Aaron was also the Chief Strategy Officer of FLO Technologies and helped the company grow from a pre-revenue startup to raising $28 million and launching in over 500 Home Depot stores.  Aaron also founded and ran a successful money management firm, Sabre Value Management from 1998 to 2011. Released last year, his first book, The Hard Break: The Case for a 24/6 Lifestyle makes the case for taking one day a week off from work, email and smartphones for a more productive, healthier and more creative life.

EP159 - 2019 Predictions and 2018 Recap Our annual predictions episode for 2019 and a recap of our 2018 predictions. 2018 Recap - Predictions made on episode 112 Scot Mallageddon 2.0 - We saw 7000 stores close in 2017, I think this accelerates in 2018 as the 30-40% of weak malls fail  closures. YES Amazon will NOT buy another offline retailer, triples down on private label. YES Amazon will squarely get in the last mile business in 2018 and compete with FedEx and UPS. NO Amazon’s ad group will get so large that they have to break out details about it and everyone will be shocked at how large it has gotten so quickly YES Walmart will make a big M+A - top candidates would be Instacart, postmates and eBay. YES Somebody acquires Magento, or they go public. YES 5/6 Bonus - Amazon comes out with Alexa powered wireless earbuds - because I want them. NO Jason Grocery gets disrupted by digital (led by curbside pickup).  Digital grocery doubles in US, at least one delivery firm peters out.YES Drug gets disrupted by digital. NO AI Gap - biggest trend of 2018 NO Voice - Huge but not for commerce. YES Payments - Retail digital wallets die (except Starbucks/Walmart/Amazon).  Bitcoin tanks. YES 3/5 Bonus - Amazon launches a wearable. NO .  Scot crushes Jason! 2019 Predictions Scot At least 5k more store closures in 2019  Amazon - Prof Galloway is big on Amazon having to create a AWS spinoff and has moderated that to tracking stock. I’m going to predict Amazon doesn’t do either of those things. But this WILL be the year they break ads out. eBay/Alibaba - I think this is the year when the both need to do something big and the stars are aligning for a combination there.   Shopify gets acquired by one of the big ad-based companies (facebook/google most likely)  Walmart stumbles in e-commerce Jason Amazon store count exceeds 1000 stores Walmart buys a last mile firm  Another big  bankruptcy (going to be a tougher than expected year, JCP, category killers Office, BBBY, Neiman) Mobile commerce revenue passes Desktop - Aided by PWA’s, and payment API’s we see mobile gap narrow Fads (Voice Commerce, Customer facing AI, SocialCommerce, VR BlockChain) Bonus: Amazon breaks out Prime revenue.   Don't forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes. Episode 159 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Sunday, January 6th, 2019. www.jasonandscot.com Transcript Jason: [0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scott show this is episode 159 being recorded on Sunday January 6th 2019 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scott Wingo. Scot: [0:39] Hey Jason and welcome back and happy New Year Jason Scott show listeners Jason am I mistaken or is that some new music we have there at the beginning. Jason: [0:48] Yeah yeah due to overwhelming listener feedback that I finally updated the the intro to the show it is the same song and the the same announcer but you know you and I both both had some career accomplishments in that in the last year until now there are titles are updated and it's you know just kind of refreshed for the year. Scot: [1:13] Yeah and you how is the new gig going for anyone that missed for smashing on you if you missed any of our last couple episodes but Jason has a new gig will see if I can remember this Chief Grand Superior digital retail Commerce officer is that the right now. Jason: [1:31] The for the second time in a row you nailed it exactly right. Scot: [1:35] Awesome my dad sometimes I drop a word in there but I think I got them all. Jason: [1:38] Yep and impacted cuz you mark that title so much in the last episode I had a ton of a client with legitimately fancy titles all making fun of me for the for the entire break so thanks very much for that Scott. Scot: [1:52] Awesome it's maybe that will be everyone's New Year's resolution is to give Jason a hard time about his awesome new title. Jason: [1:58] For for sure. Scot: [2:00] Coldwell we're post holidays here I think everyone's probably on the edge of their seat did you get any cool new gadgets. Jason: [2:12] Ya always tough. Like in general there's an extremely narrow gap between my desires and fulfillment in so. Like if I got some new gadgets for Christmas it's most likely because a new Gadget came out right before Christmas so I will say I did some refresh is I finally got the. The iPad Pro the 10.5% sync you also have I haven't unbent version I've been pretty. Pretty happy with that and because because of the new job I had to trade out laptops and so now I have finally have a in all USB C. Ecosystem with the iPad and the the the laptop so I've getting those new gadgets of course cost me thousands of dollars in new adapters and cables in. And all angles but I guess the one minor little toy I got is a new. A video camera well I got a couple new vision cameras so I got the DJI osmo pocket. Scot: [3:24] Nice. Jason: [3:25] This is a tiny as in fits like in the palm of your hand you could you could hide it in your hand video camera with a a fully-functioning gimbal so it's, pretty cool to have some some. Funny pictures I'm looking forward to taking nap to the several upcoming trade shows that will probably talk about in a minute so that has been cool and I did a little earlier than Christmas get the new Nikon. Mirrorless camera system so a Nikon Zed 6 if you're from your upper or a Z6 if you're in the US. Scot: [4:01] Cool house that is the mirror listen can you tell the difference. Jason: [4:05] Yet yet so Nikon has always had a great reputation for digital still cameras and great image quality in low-light capability in the color rendering they've been extraordinary really horrible at video. And I'm assuming I actually need a camera that's. Okay it Stills and also very good at video so the fact that I've always own Nikon cameras and have Nikon lenses have been. A constant pain point for me because my car's been so far behind on video and so there's some the mirrorless cameras in general are much better at video and this this. Nikon's first mirrorless full-frame camera. Really does a pretty good weed frog for video capabilities in a lot of ways so it's it's definitely the best. Video stills camera I've ever owned. Scot: [5:01] Koba I know you're off to CES next week and we will have a lot more gadget news for us then you and I are both at the NRF Big Show so maybe we'll shoot some video do a live streaming or something fun like that. Jason: [5:12] I will bring all those gadgets why be using them to photograph any cool new gadgets that you got for the holiday stuff. Scot: [5:19] I I said William like you where I think I probably had caught up on my gadgets before the holiday suit so nothing new for me. Oh yeah yeah I do think did you get the keyboard case on your iPad I really enjoyed that. Jason: [5:35] Yeah I did I've enjoyed that it's been it's my first iPad with a pencil so that has been it's been cool yeah. Not permanently I I will concede to have misplaced it but it it does reemerged. Scot: [5:51] That an airpods have this weird like they want to get lots of gaple somehow his program them to is a margin enhancer to get lost as quickly as they possibly can. Jason: [6:02] I'm afraid to even talk about that because my my wife is so much more responsible than me and she's on like her her like 4th or 5th pair and I am still in my originals through some some like and Candy miracle. Scot: [6:15] Goodwill as is our tradition here on the Jason Scott show every year we kick off the new year with a recap of what happened in the last year and then we have our predictions so the predictions are twofold last year about 365 days ago we made a bunch of predictions couldn't remember so it's kind of fun to go back and look at those are super geeky and want to go back that was episode 112. It's a method that means we did 47 shows last year so that's 47 hours roughly of Jason Scott if you if you have a week to burn if you have mono or something like that that you want to recover from and you need something to put you to sleep for 47 hours a week we have your cure so we will be breaking the show into three pieces for going to do kind of a good bad ugly of 2018 and then we can go into recapping our predictions and squirm and then from 2018 and then we're going to put out some 2019 predictions so I think what you'll see from the 28th predictions is we're actually pretty good pretty good at this thing after how long you been at this 3 for years now I think we're getting pretty good on the prediction game. Jason: [7:34] That's easier for you to say than it is for me to say this year but sure. Scot: [7:39] Without further delay let's jump into The Good the Bad and the Ugly Jason what order a couple of your goods from 2018. Jason: [7:46] Yep so I was really excited to see some of the new physical store Concepts and the very end of the year you know Nike open at House of innovation we talked about that in the last show that's super exciting to me I think some of the Amazon Concepts like go and 4-star are are super interesting there's a lot of new physical Marketplace Concepts like we've had beta on the show I've mentioned show failed before and then a lot of these mobile-first stores like the Sam's Club now so I think, the you know we're really starting to see digital Impact Physical stores and drive new store Concepts which is awesome. [8:24] On the platform front I was excited to see Adobe make the big investment in Magento in an e-commerce platform. In many ways I feel like the the commercial platform space in the Enterprise platform space in particular that I play in is kind of. In the worst spot it's been in in 10 years in terms of. You don't really meeting the needs of retailers and clients and there's always been this this conflict between CMS systems that people like Adobe make and commerce platforms that people like. IBM sap in Oracle make in so I'm very optimistic that adobe who who is dominating the CMAs. Essbase then making a significant investment investment in e-commerce you know really could be the way forward for 4. A lot of new new retailers in in Commerce entities that need an enterprise-class system. And I say this with the one caveat Magento as it is is not the solution. [9:33] Adobe's willingness to invest in Magento 2 me is historically a Dobby is always been a. And aggressive acquire that acquired a bunch of stuff and you know it often takes them several years to really integrate the stuff so I'm not expecting Miracles this year per se but in the long run feels like. Adobe deciding that Commerce is an important part of the stack is super exciting and then my my last good for the year. Is kind of specific it was Walmart's investment in Flipkart in the reason I think that is good I think it is super smart for. From Walmart to be aggressively fighting for digital in in the super important Emerging Market in India. Some things happened late last year that make those Investments actually look a little softer is as a Indian regulation on foreign Commerce is has gotten more challenging but the reason I just think it's good overall is. I feel like that investment that huge investment in digital for Walmart you know his is the most. [10:38] Tangible physical manifestation of Walmart's absolute recognition that. Digital is the way forward in the day you know that they have to compete with the Amazon than alibaba's of the world and can't can't abdicate any of that Digital Ground And so seeing them them fight for for that that intellectual property you know I think is a encouraging sign for all of us in the future what about you what would it were you excited about last year Scott. Scot: [11:07] Well I'm always the guy that gets to say it wouldn't be the Jason Scott show without Amazon and Sonos surprised they're my good is crying it out with Amazon so I thought was really interesting than Amazon you mentioned a little bit but they really expanded their store footprint so they had acquired Whole Foods back and 17 which obviously is a big splash into offline and they never really expanded Whole Food stores I mean 2018 was a year of kind of adjusting that that acquisition they announce now they're going to start opening more here in 2019 so that's going to be interesting to see I think the surprise for me in an impossible one was done to go experiments and then just kind of really ramping that up pretty quickly you know I think they built another for 5 is that many more on the way there's rumors of wars and then you're the one thing as I travel around not nearly as much as you but going to various malls and things I would say pretty much every a mall in the US seems to have an Amazon pop-up store and I think about all those people I don't know how many that is it's how many of these are out there but I think if we looked at. [12:23] Your class A malls I think there be three or four hundred of them so I wouldn't be surprised if there was three or four hundred pretty substantial Amazon pop-ups out there so it's I think that's pretty interesting and really is a testament to the Amazon. [12:38] You're expanding into kind of omni-channel world and get their products in front of more people. [12:43] I'm done once asked on the front end of Amazon the back end of Amazon that was really interesting this year was what I would call it start a frenetic expansion of. Delivery capabilities some of this is last mile so they acquire twenty thousand of these Mercedes Sprinter vans I'd be surprised if any listener at least the United States hasn't seen one of these I see you to a date at this point in my area. [13:09] And they built a 1099 Network a very clever way kind of taking a page out of FedEx Grounds Playbook where they were actually kind of put you in the business guarantee you rub you and routes and then boom you're off and running so I think they got those 20,000 sprinters out there delivering packages and something like six months which is just pretty crazy about a lot of soccer capabilities so if you're a third-party now you can use Amazon soccer in your phone at Center and almost be like little extension of FBA Whole Foods we saw them can I ditch instacart and then layer and their their 1099 other 1099 network of Flex for that they've added a ton more jets that got to where are hubs coming and I attractive distribution centers pretty closely so in the USA in 2018 they added 46 more performance center assets and then another 23 in the rest of the world for a total of about 70 I am all in that's an additional 11 million square feet of space that came on line in 2018 and then that adds to the existing 850 or so globally and 250 million square feet so, so it's a lot of people that I always talk to you that the baby not in the industry but on the cusp there always surprise I'll say what how many how many from home as soon as you think Amazon has versus Walmart but they both have 10 and the number I think that's about right with Walmart but Amazon has. [14:34] Tremendous amount of assets they built so it matters it's Amazon a so far ahead of anyone it is going to be interesting to see there. My last surprise was becoming I think the economy did really well last year even the last reported as of December on the job side was really really strong so that we're seeing a strong economy you know as the Fed kind of Titans interest rates in the stock market with a lot of shakiness there but underlying economy. [15:09] Then let's put it in the battle I'll start those so I think the bad was I was so surprised about how kind of negative to Amazon hq2 process turned out, kind of ended in a in a thud you know it wasn't like this kind of I guess unless you're one of the two cities I think they're. Pretty excited but even then there's a lot of protesting going on in the DC New York area that Amazon's coming and then it got these really big incentives so yeah I think that's going to be interesting to watch and see what happens as Amazon is so large now that they can't just fly under the radar and I think they managed the back of that process kind of weirdly not where it seems like everyone that are decided and then and then it's kind of pain a conspiracy theory if you believe that they were just Gathering data from people what I'm concerned about a little bit you and I emailed about this just recently I kind of put it in the bad category in this is holiday 2018. I'm so Adobe came out a couple days ago what their final report they said the holiday came in at 14%. That's e-commerce so Little Debbie disappointing if that's true then you send me some data that showed MasterCard said all in 5.1 I guess you know this better than I do dinner or else was right around there and set right would that be kind of a win or a loss of your. Jason: [16:30] Yet so for all of retail that's that that's probably a win it's a little better than the recent historical averages but I think the. That does averages hide the fact that you know it just was not equal 4 for all retailers and inside I definitely think there are winners and losers. Scot: [16:54] Yeah unfortunately don't think we'll know until Amazon reports there they're kind of the Bellwether I look at and you know, Indus. Where they would have pre-announced if they had missed so they haven't said anything unfortunately Apple did pronounce look like they had a really rough calendar Q4 I believe it's there there theraphysical q1i which is always confusing what companies do it that way but that seems to be isolated to China with some of the tariffs and things in the Chinese economy that that I don't think we'll Amazon has as much exposure to just really interesting to see where holiday 18 and zup and I think we'll know what covered on the show as we always do I think we'll know by that first week in February however all the all the leaves fell and and what happened. Jason: [17:41] Yeah I'm looking forward to seeing how that all plays out so some of my bads. Didn't get a ton of Buzz last year but I've been pretty disappointed in the outcome of the Supreme Court ruling regarding a internet sales tax and so you know, basically the Supreme Court rule made a ruling in favor of a state that was suing to collect sales tax on. An internet sales in Oxy like I'm okay with. People having to pay sales tax for other online purchases I'm I actually think in general rather be Universal pricing and in. You know you buy from the same retail online or in the store you want to see the same price and and that's a lot to be taxed in a similar way the reason I say that the ruling was bad is. Because a bunch of the ramifications of the way this particular ruling plays out it just creates a lot of uncertainty in friction in the e-commerce space and so. Which states you actually need to collect sales tax in which they tax you definitely don't need to collect sales tax in and which states. You may or may not get sued by a state if you don't collect sales tax in right now is kind of. [19:02] Thrown up in the air and it creates a lot of inconsistency and just a lot of. A sort of effort and friction that isn't helping anyone and so I feel like there was opportunity for for Congress to solve this problem before dumping in the lap of the Supreme Court's and. You know maybe that was overly optimistic so didn't happen until we're going to have to let this play out for now a number of years and. Just like the unfortunate the other sort of bad one to me this year is we had some kind of ugly CEO exit so you know what we forgot about that this far end up but we had. You know the very ugly exit at Lululemon. [19:44] Early in the year I want to see February he was he was the CEO and chairman and got kind of forced out and he's now been. In an irritant for them on an ongoing basis you know Mickey Drexler was. Lasted less than a year of J.Crew and you know maybe not CEO of all but you know I see you judge executive term for some bad reasons it Nike. And so you know that certainly to me as one of the the the bad blemishes on on 2018 from a Commerce perspective. [20:19] And then my my ugly if we give it to the the really bad stuff for 2018 I just think it what I mean you're always going to have churning in retail stores are always going to have, bankruptcies Doug mcmillon famous what he carries around this west of the top 10. [20:36] Can retailers from my 1980 and there aren't a lot of those names that are that are still in business today so bankruptcies are in a shock but I feel like. 2018 hits is particularly hard with Toys R Us and Sears and then you know below them you had all these other guys David's Bridal Mattress Firm Brookstone Nine West Claire's Gymboree bonds. Etc and so you know as a lover of Commerce and Retail and sorry to see some of those stories brands. [21:07] You don't go away or get greatly diminished so that's only felt ugly and then right towards the end of the year, we had a IBM sell their big Enterprise e-commerce platform Webster Commerce to US service provider HCL, that to me is a probably super ugly for IBM clients that are relying on that platform and. You know now it's fragmented from the rest of the IBM stacked and there's going to be a bunch of challenges there there's a bunch of clients that own the or just moving to the. The cloud version of Webster Commerce which they didn't sell so that seems ugly I just feel like the the Enterprise Commerce platform space. In general is in a bad space and it's most manifested by by IBM which was you know one of the top three platforms are arguably the top platform getting kind of dumped by IBM this year. Scot: [22:08] Call yeah I'm going to plus one or as my kids would say retweet on the bankruptcies that tear you when was painfully know is that it is a kid that grew up Star Wars fan I spent many a midnight madness so you know. Jedi Friday or whatever the column hanging out in t r u so that was disappointing then you. Add insult to injury one of the shopping center if we go to a lot had a combined Tru Babies R Us like a huge one it just sitting there empty for the last last three or four months is kind of sad. Yeah I kind of say you know in this top of the mall Denton, so interesting stat here that came out towards the end of the year. I mentioned it, he did pretty well but malls were there emptiest in six years from a tenancy standpoint no foot traffic is also down at malls this company RI sorry is I had a report that said that they're at an 8.6% vacancy. [23:05] Again that's the highest it's been in 6 years and that represents 4 million square foot is the most available square footage in malls and then strip malls have been hit chick really bad because you know I think Toys R Us is really kind of one of those strip-mall type stores that it was an anchor for a lot of strip malls and and as we see in the enclosed malls when she loosened his anchors you get up into this death spiral kind of situation so I would also Echo that on the ugly side cool so so that was kind of the what was sawed in 2018 let's put it to our predictions in and see if how Clairvoyant we were on condos so I went back to Good Ol episode 112 and service predictions I'll go to mine and then you go to yours and then what kind of see how he did sue her quickly I had five predictions and a bonus so number one Mulligan 2.0 in 2017 we saw 7,000 stores closed and I said it's going to accelerate into 2018. [24:05] I ended up with 9,000 closures then my second prediction was that Amazon will not buy another retailer this doesn't seem like people may think well why would you say that it's kind of obvious but back then we were on the heels of the Whole Foods acquisition in a lot of Wall Street analyst for like issuing those reports you know Costco's Definitely Maybe the next company know it's Nordstrom's know its Target so that's that was kind of the backdrop. Predictions is really say these guys are off base I just don't think Amazon's could do anything big again in 2018, in the corollary to that was that they would instead of doing that they would triple down on private label. [24:44] Third prediction I ripped my prediction on Amazon Logistics they would be competing more squarely with FedEx ups and then number for this one turned out, pretty good I said Walmart will make big m&a instacart Postmates and eBay so, playing on Marketplace and last-mile their number 5 and said somebody would acquire magenta or they would go. And then my bonus was the Amazon would come out with Alexa powered, your butt's so I mentioned airpods the topless show I love my airpods but I am not a huge Siri fan and I everyday I wish Alexa what would hang out on my airpods instead of Siri so that was the Genesis of that production Warrior 2018 predictions. Jason: [25:30] Yep so I also had five in the bonus the first one was the grocery would get heavily disrupted by digital I think I called out specifically that would be wed by curbside pickup. Number two was the drug would get the heavily disrupted by digital, number three I said the biggest train would be talking about in 2018 was what I called that AI gap which was kind of, the difference between the big players that could take full advantage of AI in the smaller players that couldn't necessarily afford to do it as quickly, predictions for was voice I said it's going to continue to be huge and grow quickly but not for Commerce. And then my V prediction was mobile payments was digital wallets I said a bunch of them with. I said Starbucks Walmart and Amazon when continue to thrive but a bunch of the other ones women's and, snarky side note I mentioned that I expected Bitcoin to tank and then my bonus was. Close to the same as yours I I said that I thought the Amazon would come out with a wearable in 28. Scot: [26:42] What did you what you mean by Rebel. Jason: [26:45] Army night. Your paws were the most likely scenario but I just felt like they would find some way to get Alexa on on your body and especially because they lack the phone that seems like. You don't like it could be some kind of widget that you you clip to your clothing or or carry with you but but or I wear something like that but I guess my biggest expectation was that it would be your pot. And we will talk about the results of that moment early but I want to start off by breaking down how well you did so now that we reminded everyone what we thought 2018 would look like in the beginning of 2018 let's see how we actually did so your first prediction was the store Mulligan what do you think. Scot: [27:38] Yeah I'm going to because I put a specific number in there of 9,000 I I I missed that one turns out it took me a while to find the state looks like there was 6235 closures in hindsight what I should have done and there's no good data set for this is looked at the square footage of so you know when I don't know when a mattress firm closes that's different than a Sears or JCPenney are Toys R Us closing right is this really the square footage we care about so I would argue I would throw myself at the feet of the judges and say look at miss the number of stores but I think if you look at kind of what did clothes and yours juices rundown of store closures in 2018 Toys R Us 735, Walgreens 600 n Taylor Loft Dress Barn 500 Teavana 379 Best Buy 250 Mattress Firm 200 Gap 200 Children's Place 144 Footlocker 110 Kmart 109 Gymboree 102 and then let's goes It goes from there another kind of big square footage when Sam's Club 63 how big is a Sam's Club like two hundred thousand. Jason: [28:49] 100 weeks but yeah. Scot: [28:50] Honored yet so there's enough so it's all right I think if we looked as square footage I bet and I don't have a source for this unfortunately I have heard that the there was way more square footage in 2018 so. Who does if you want to hold it till I rely on the stop. Jason: [29:08] Yeah I'm actually giving you that one because I would, went out do I call the sources we do have the track store closures none of them claim or try to be comprehensive so they're they're tracking stores in a particular category or that made a particular criteria and saying they close that many but none of them for example are trying to keep track of. Potentially how many mom-and-pop closed or those sorts of things and even there are a couple of sources of square footage in your right the square footage is more dramatic because we had closure is it a lot of big stores but even the square footage tend to be like. People that are attacking mob a square footage in what the closures are so I just I don't think there is a definitive number but I think the spirit of your prediction came to pass and I think was the. The biggest shrinkage of a store for stores in in recent memory. Scot: [29:59] Colton so we'll call that one in the sky cam. Jason: [30:05] For sure so your second prediction Amazon will not buy another offline retailer and you said they'd triple down on private label so pretty with B, and I prediction but but I actually. I liked it so how do you think you did. Scot: [30:24] Predictions so obviously I didn't make another big acquisition of an offline retailer in it you know the trouble down on private label I think maybe they even quadruple down that it's hard to get data on the cell to does a good job and then we had some other data folks 10:10 to concentrate on the show and you know I think if you could attract our conversations on the show or the squeeze 7 episodes the second half of 18 we were spending a lot of time talking about Amazon 3rd party because it's probably the number one thing on retailers and Brands mines you know so so so I would call this definitely something that happened there. Jason: [31:12] That for sure, annoyingly totally giving it to you so 242 so far your third prediction which I touch you like is your annual protection, is the Amazon Logistics. Scot: [31:30] Yeah and this one's kind of squishy so I'm going to kind of say this was a zero so my mind we won't cross this one until I can ship a product on Amazon like I would FedEx from point A to point B. So I think it's become insanely cleared everyone that this is what they're building now so I think everyone is kind of, in fact if you if you go look at a FedEx stock chart and you'll see they had a number of issues with the terrorist it help them it would not, listen to their conference call their CEO and founder Fred Smith, you got a little agitated by a kind of the fifth or sixth Amazon question that he got so I think it's become pretty apparent everyone would Amazon's doing here and the the ball is no longer hidden the cards are on the table and who knows maybe 2019 will be that year when we can ship a product Coast to Coast for $3 on Amazon. Jason: [32:31] Yeah for sure so I'm sort of with you I feel like they made a lot of progress in that direction seems like you need to be something that will happen but but you don't get full credit for this year so if only because I need to keep the predictions competitive, so your fourth prediction was the Amazon the ad group we get so large that they would have to break out there the revenue separately and that people would be totally shocked how how big they got so quickly. Scot: [33:04] Yeah and so did this is a win they didn't have to break it out like they do AWS work so I could separate kind of reporting piano but they have had to break it out because it has been so large they created this they when they announced the quarter last year they said going forward they would change the way they recorded stuff. Unfortunately they stopped recording a lot of my favorite stuff which was kind of sad so they used to have this interesting breakdown between him and some things that have gone away now but when they did that they did start to break out category called other and everyone knows that that's like 99% and so and it has gotten quite large so you'll hear me talk a little bit more about that in 2019 president. Jason: [33:50] Yeah and you don't even though you're bad at reading predictions and you put that highly specific thing in there that didn't happen I'm totally giving this one to you like for people that haven't lived through the industry in last year people are not talking about Amazon's ad Revenue in January of last year in you don't even like the Scott Galloway's of the world that like make a living. Making predictions and then you know reminding everyone when they're right he wrote a book that you don't Amazon with 1/4 of the book and he barely mentioned advertising in that book in like, July and so for you back in January to have said hey there ads is going to be this big thing and it was going to be shocked when they find out how big it was and then you know last June and then again in October when they you know, showed how fast that was growing and everyone's exactly talking about that I feel like you you basically put the words right in there was a mouth so I'm totally giving you credit for that but you still ain't get one point for it so so you're three or four running into to your V prediction which was that. Annoying Walmart will make a big MMA and you mentioned some some last-mile candidates. Scot: [35:08] Yeah. Jason: [35:09] How you did Scott. Scot: [35:10] I'll give you sixteen Billy syneresis flag, Walmart acquired what card it was not one of the ones that predicted but. You know I probably should have so it was my my set up on this one going back then was, it's not like Walmart had all this pressure you know that they had to get in the game with with Amazon more and I was thinking Last Mile but it totally makes sense on their National side as well so that was, clearly a good call to kind of read the tea leaves on that one. Jason: [35:48] Yeah that was totally good and then annoyingly even though they were only supposed to be 5 predictions you did 1/6 prediction and you know to be annoyingly for me cuz I I'm I have this one-sided rivalry when I'm trying to compete with you I believe your 6 prediction was that a Dobby would acquire Magento for 1.6 billion dollars. Scot: [36:07] It wasn't that accept fake but it was that someone would acquire Majin to or they would go public so so there you know so having been on the other side of this when when you get to a certain scale as a startup in the magenta got through some complicated things but they're effectively a start up again right there an independent entity they had a private equity the clock starts ticking was what I was thinking and what that clock means is that investor wants their money back and he's private Equity guys BC's want a 10-year Horizon private equities like two or three that was kind of feeding into that prediction and then you know it's also on the other side it's. Musical chairs you know so so everyone every big cloud he's going to want to have a great platform and it just felt like there was. One chair left in and kind of two Cloud companies that wanted to sit in that chair so so that's what it said in the so happy that I read those tea leaves right as well. Jason: [37:07] What congratulations so recap five out of six right and then you did do the bonus one and that was the Amazon would have an airpod like headphones they and what it what do you want to say about that stuff. Scot: [37:23] So my strategy here is it's easy to call this when the wind because you had the same one so your Prime. So Amazon specifically didn't get released this but this is actually my son was looking for some new headphones so we went to, I would assume next to the derelict Toys'R'Us I mentioned earlier and I was surprised I'm a big I'm listening I'm on the show right now with some qc35 from Bose and I looked and it said now featuring Alexa and I was like what the heck, this is awesome now Alexa is in the Bose headphones then I went over to the job or display and it said now featuring Alexa then I went over to like two other kind of you know generic style things and literally as I backed up and looked at the row of headphones every single pair suddenly I had Alexa so what's happened is Amazon has issued an API or some kind of capability in a very strategically work with a lot of these manufacturers and unbeknownst to me until now literally like January 2nd when we were born in some. [38:29] Best Buy gift cards they are there are a lot of airpod like Technologies and and you have every configuration headphone you can imagine with Alexa now and I play with it it's actually exactly how I want it to be so on my Gadget which list is I am hoping that somehow these Bose headphones I have break and that I can. Get a new pair with Alexa or maybe I need to go check and see if I can retro them to have Alexa probably not try some kind of I'm sure there's some. Gizmo this to make me buy a new car. Jason: [39:02] Yea though I can certainly help you with the accidental breakage problem when I see you in in New York in a couple weeks but yeah yeah same boat I I'm not giving it either this credit for this cuz the Amazon didn't didn't actually, come out with an Amazon branded product but what did happen I can't remember the exact date like August or September they did finally release exactly as you suggested an API that made it totally possible for OEM to build Alexa into the headphones and you can imagine folks are doing it right then but then even a bigger deal one of the big chip manufacturers in November started shipping a new Bluetooth chipset the included that capability and access to that API in the chips at so you're already seeing a bunch of announcements that's before. Brands had the opportunity to build new products with this new Bluetooth chipset my expectation is I'm going to show up in Las Vegas tomorrow and there are going to be Bluetooth products with an Alexa embedded in them coming out of my ears with early. So I think we yeah we may have missed The Branding on that one but the floodgates are about to open up and not one of my predictions but sidenote like I think everyone's noticed that. [40:24] Airpods have been Apple's most successful product in The Last 5 Years and you know the. The Amazon Alexa family's been the most successful Consumer Electronic it in The Last 5 Years, I'll be shocked if we don't see apple Google and Amazon directly battling it out with smart smart earbuds this year. Scot: [40:44] Cool one of the one of the many Jason Scott show interns just handed me a note it looks like I can upgrade my headphones with firmware so we're going to stop a show right now. Jason: [40:58] We're not going to stop at but you may not hear Scott anymore cuz he's going to like drop by the audio. Scot: [41:03] I'm going to be upgrading my firmware while Jason finishes the wrestler show speaking of Jason let's go through your predictions so what was my score so was it 5 out of 7. Jason: [41:13] I forgot I forgot what it was I'm giving you five out of six we're not counting the bone. Scot: [41:18] Okay but I think that helps you but I'm okay with. Jason: [41:21] Well but we're also the setting it was the same bonus oh. Scot: [41:24] Okay so your first one was grocery gets disrupted by digital led by curbside pickup listeners will longtime listeners will know that is your favorite. Grocery solution digital grocery doubles in the US at least one delivery firm Peters out. Jason: [41:41] Yep so, I'm calling out a window side note I have come to realize that I hate my predictions from last year and because I just, put them badly like they're too subjective and in many cases like hard to measure so at one of my New Year's resolution is to write better predictions and we'll find out how very shortly. Scot: [42:05] It's easy to say you hate them in January of 2019. Jason: [42:08] Yeah for sure for sure but but I do think the sentiment of this when like was wildly true Walmart ruled after I pick up to 2,000 stores that over 40% e-commerce growth every quarter this year which is wildly faster than last year is faster than Amazon Kroger get a bunch of their own curbside pickup called quick list but a bigger deal they did an exclusive partnership with Arcado the biggest digital Grocer in UK Albertsons made a bunch of big Investments they both announced that they were going to watch the first digital grocery Marketplace and they also announced that they were going to build dedicated micro fulfillment centers out of the backs of a bunch of the Albertsons stores our friends at shoptalk launched a dedicated digital grocery show called grocery talk and it's sold out with 3,000 attendees in the first year you know you go internationally and the the Ali Baba concept hammer and the JD concept 7 fresh are going nuts I think it's it's a safe and fair to say digital grocery blew up even even though. You know I mean I have perfectly nailed the specifics and again there's no perfect metric but it does appear that digital grocery more than doubled in the US. Scot: [43:28] Wood shed delivery from Peter. Jason: [43:30] Yeah that's the part where I sort of depends on how you count right like you could argue that like one that got acquired like shipped for example. Scot: [43:42] Oh that's like tripled. Jason: [43:44] Not with any retailer besides Target. And I think I mean you know there's there's something there on the ropes a little bit but yeah that was a dumb part of the prediction so you can you're going to trust me anyway so don't you don't need a whole night. Scot: [44:00] Oh when writing predictions don't don't like a daisy chain hands together because. Jason: [44:06] When specifics yeah yeah. 2 + 1 is that is that I'm one-for-one right now feel free to stop listening to schoenauer. Scot: [44:17] Okay the judges give you that one okay because we're going to flip your aunt's to Anor and give you one there alright your second prediction was drugs get disrupted by digital. Jason: [44:30] Yeah and I mean a few things did happen that are interesting Amazon invested a billion dollars in pillpack they wash their first over-the-counter brand basic care they partnered to do that like at home medical devices under the choice brand of course there's this big joint health care venture between Amazon Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan but to me none of that adds up to a true disruption yet and I I mean I think there's some is there a lot of interesting tea leaves to read this year but I'm I'm not going to argue that I should get a point there. Scot: [45:12] All right and then your third prediction was the biggest trend of 2018 will be the AI Gap. Jason: [45:21] So once again a stupid prediction how do you argue something is or isn't the biggest Trend but I think it's safe to say this wasn't so I kind of miss this one like you know I do think. Aai was one of the hype things that got a lot of chatter in 2018 and there was one IPO that you could argue with sort of AI Commerce which is Stitch fix realistically like I didn't I don't think we saw a i dramatically transformed any retailers and so my my way more specific prediction that. Did the it would open a gap between the big retailers in the little retailers why I just don't think it's fair to say that happened so that was a dumb prediction and I'm I'm not one for 3. Scot: [46:06] Okay I'll see how you did a number for you said his voice is going to be huge but not for Commerce. Jason: [46:14] Yeah so again based on my fragile ego I feel like this one is climbing out of the hole a little bit I do think of voice was huge I think Amazon alone has said they sold over a hundred million devices now it's their best-selling device on all their big days that there's some by some metrics Google is actually. Selling more devices in the last couple quarters than Amazon I'm not sure I totally believe that but but I do believe they're selling a bunch of devices as well until for sure, voice over all was huge and I think even more clearly voice commerce was not there was some some data that came out in the third quarter that said that less than 2% of people that own smart speakers that ever tried to do Commerce with it feel like the only only even moderate volume, Commerce type applications were things like a Starbucks in the Uber for sure people are not ordering things with. Complicated attributes and in promo codes via there their voice devices self. Again I'm going to take the win there and which would put me at 2 for 4. Scot: [47:32] Does that hundred million devices suppression. Jason: [47:36] No because I mean some very low-cost devices we haven't talked that an issue I don't think that they now even have like and you can frequently get devices free and as part of bundles but they never liked him $19 device that you can plug into any speaker. And so they they just have all the price points in there you know there, is you highlighted there a huge advertising platform than one of that biggest biggest media platforms on the on the planet and they generally dedicate about half of all their pixels to selling this stuff so I mean. Today I am not shocked they sold that many devices if you if you ask me in a 3 years ago when they started this stuff if they would get there this past I probably would have said that shot. Scot: [48:21] So just like one way I think about this is probably 80% domestic 20% International I don't think they push the Alexa stuff is hard International so then to the pilot 89 us net, that article is totally undermined right is global High thing. Jason: [48:40] Yeah I think that was a global number. Scot: [48:42] There's three hundred and fifty people are in the US 250 households 200 million households. Jason: [48:51] Little north of 200. Scot: [48:52] Yes it was just going to round numbers 200 million households 80 million devices there's going to be some like your house that has 30 devices but that's like we on this Edge Neo so you know call it's approaching half us households have an Alexa device that's pretty amazing. Jason: [49:13] Yeah for sure but it is I feel like it is pres been on them like they're lots of devices that get to that. That 50% market share eventually and it depends on the technology took a long time but I do think one of the ramifications of the like modern digital era is. That all of this happens much faster so you know it. Adoption of new things just happens much more quickly than it did in the ear of radio or TV and so you know smart speakers, you know followed a similar trajectory to a lot of those other media technologies that they just did it in a way I can press time. Scot: [49:47] God I wish I could give you two on this one but it's been our custom to just give one point prediction so sorry. Jason: [49:53] Yeah totally totally fair. Scot: [49:56] Then your payments so you said retail die. And Bitcoin tanks so you didn't and in there. Jason: [50:11] So like you got him like me for my poor Boolean logic and again stupidly written like I call that some specific digital wallets that were the exceptions and those exceptions large we did really well Starbucks did very well on there some evidence that Walmart did well Amazon you know his continuing to thrive is a digital wallet I didn't spell out the digital wallets that wouldn't do well but in my mind there were two families of those there's Apple and Google which, like all indications are are pretty flat so there are people using them in liking them but it but it does not appear that they're growing particularly fast and it doesn't appear that they're getting as much reuse as, I'm sure they would hope so so our friends over it payments that that track this like it kind of found ample in Google to be flat and then there was this whole genre of digital wallets from financial institutions so specific Banks like Chase and Citibank and the card issuers like MasterCard and visa and. [51:13] Yeah none of those digital wallets are used by anyone that's not a family member of the company so I do feel like that that is fair and then stupidly put a hand in there 4 Bitcoin that had nothing to do with digital wallet so I have no idea why I did that but that is arguably, my best prediction of the entire thing because I think Bitcoin was at $16,000 a coin and in that is the beginning of January that you wanted me to prediction and today it's at about 3:36 hundred bucks so it's basically a quarter of its its former value so if you if you wanted to invest in any prediction in this entire, in N last year's entire show the most money you could have made was to take my advice and short bed. Scot: [51:59] Unless you were a Magento investor. Are Flipkart okay and then finally you said Amazon will come out in the wearable and I think you have already dismissed. Jason: [52:14] Yeah yeah thank you you are to cover that one so so I think you add all that up I'm I'm three out of five you're for it at 5 but with a like a much richer more impressive for. Scot: [52:26] Cool thank you I appreciate the kikuta sir I think you did a good job but hopefully you learned some some important lessons about writing your predictions and let's let's jump into that you want to go first you want me to go first. Jason: [52:39] I want to go first, before you jump in and in case we have any that overlap. Scot: [52:45] Are you good for. Jason: [52:46] So my first prediction is that Eddie Lampert is not going to launch a space exploration company. Wait wait that's all right so cheating just making fun of your negative predictions but I do like that one if anyone wants to keep it as my bonus my first one I guess I'm trying to have more measurable objective things I think continuing the the evolution of Amazon's brick-and-mortar I think Amazon is going to have more than a thousand brick-and-mortar stores by the end of this year, combination of goes Whole Foods in some other expansion of bookstore Concepts but a thousand stores is a very meaningful brick-and-mortar retailers so if you go to like the the NRF top list of retailers and you sort it by number of stores a thousand stores makes you about the the 67th, largest retailer in the US by number of stores and so in addition to all the other areas where Amazon's excelling in. And dominating I feel like eating that thousands door threshold like definitely makes you as usually credible brick-and-mortar retailer and I think they're going to get there this year. Scot: [54:04] Do you want to throw and and in there about. Jason: [54:07] And Eddie Lampert is not going to want to space exploration. Scot: [54:10] Okay alright I almost got that in here. Jason: [54:14] So then my new strategy is just to take your predictions that didn't happen from the year before and doubled down on them. So you last year said Walmart was going to make a big acquisition and you highlighted some of the last mile companies and you got credit for the making the big acquisition but it wasn't the last mile company, I think they're going to fulfill the other half of your prediction this year and actually buy a Last Mile company. And that's potentially potentially instacart Postmates taskrabbit but I also think something like that. Adda live wood would totally toy fit in there so I'm I'm sure we'll see Walmart both organically grow and acquire. Let more last-mile capability this year. [55:07] Number 3 I am sad to say based on our previous conversations but I I think we are going to see another big beloved brand go bankrupt this year so I actually think. In any way I do I told you I think that it was an unexpectedly good economy this year. I am not as confident that we're going to sustain that for all of 2019 and there are you know it again I think that the the booming economy hasn't been. Equally generous to all retailer so I do think there's some retards have had a tough going and I think as both get tightened a little bit that potential will be the last. The last straw so you know I certainly think the department stores. You know is a vulnerable category United by JCPenney certainly is vulnerable I think any of the category killers that used to win based on assortment you know aren't winning an assortment anymore do the online so you know that could be one of the. The Office Products companies are Bed Bath & Beyond or some of those guys and you know when we talk about department stores. You don't one super story brand in the US that you like I think is has a bunch of money a bunch of. Debt due in 2019 and seemed to be having some some substantial disagreements with her creditors at the moment is Neiman Marcus so I would be sad to see them go but it seems like. [56:35] Like they're going to have to do pretty well tough to forestall that so I'm afraid we'll see another another big bankruptcy this year. Scot: [56:43] How many demons are there are they only like four big cities room. Jason: [56:47] So it's not a huge footprint unless it's 40 spores and they own a couple other Concepts as well but yeah. Scot: [56:57] Predictions for 4. Jason: [56:59] I feel like I might have made a similar version of this before but the. I'm bringing it back so mobile the mobile Gap getting narrower is my is my official predictions I think aided by a progressive web apps and payment API we are going to see. Mobile really catch up to desktop in terms of conversion rate and also total sale so I guess I'll see you in my dreams specific prediction is. That we have more mobile Commerce than desktop Commerce in if you take out tablets in 29th. Scot: [57:40] And then last but not least. Jason: [57:42] Yeah I'm taking you or negative predictions to the extreme and I'm just saying there's a bunch of pads that I don't think will will. Be significant and in 2019 the first one is still going to be hyped this year and still going to be a fad. I actually don't think there's going to be a ton of like customer-facing AI experiences or are frankly even way better personalization experiences in 2019. I think we will see more more chatter around social commerce but it's still not going to catch on. I don't think going to see any meaningful Traction in in VR for Commerce. And I certainly don't think blockchain is going to be a very important element for most of Commerce so that you know there's the ones you you all of those Technologies are ones you hear people talk about a lot and. Like I frequently intended rough drafts of retail Trends decks with all these things in a minute I just don't think any of them are going to be very Signet. Scot: [58:44] Any any bonuses you want to put on there. Jason: [58:47] I do the you talk about Amazon being forced to break out their ad Revenue do I actually think they're going to get forced to break out the revenue related to Prime Membership. And I hope that happens cuz I think it would be super interesting to see what percentage of. Of their their sales come from Prime and and you don't total total Prime Revenue in those sorts of things would be fascinating to know. Scot: [59:15] Did you include, like a whole p&l there or just really Prime revenue and sales around Prime. Jason: [59:22] Yeah I don't know how specific I want to get on bonus I don't think I official purposes I won't say piano but I hope that they have to get as granny or as. Using Prime members as a segment for reporting Revenue. So that's what I got hopefully it's better than last year hopefully I am I'm not getting. I hope I am enjoying next year's version of the show more than I did this year's but the time we're finally to the part that I'm really looking forward to which is what Nostradamus thinks is going to happen for next year so Scott what do we got. Scot: [1:00:00] Yeah it's always hard to follow up on him set up pretty good predictions and if you like last year the, the chessboard was more clearly laid out for me than it is this year and and the the tilt of the board is really hard so you know we're coming off a year where the economy was smoking and wages are going up but then we have a lot of changes in the political scene there's lots of talk of impeachment there's like all kinds of craziness the garments closes record this really hard to know which way the economy is going. But you know whenever I'm on kind of the fence on these things I tend to be an optimist so it's my heart for real blood so I'm going to lean towards the positive side of things I think you know hopefully we navigate to all that I know, Tailwind of a good economy in 2019 as an industry which I think we all agree would be good so. My first prediction so following on that optimystix thing by first one's kind of negative so like you I agree we haven't seen you know. [1:01:06] The end of this kind of I think it's a Dominos that are falling and I don't think a lot of people even kind of put that together yet so like you seen Sears file Chapter 11 I don't think many stores come out of that I think we're down to a handful of Sears that's going to put pressure on malls I think that puts more pressure on JCPenney. If you look there stocks already down from for $2. The other two are heading into a delisting scenario below a dollar I don't know what's going on with their creditors but all these old-school guys Leverage. So you get into the stuff spiral it sure does feel like JCPenney's stuck into that. Spiral they have 860 stores. [1:01:45] Macy's is Macy's is doing really well today, but once you get stuck into this kind of swirling drain of mall-based retail it's really hard to get out of there and I do worry that they kind of there a domino that falls in there. [1:02:01] I've already closed some stores to trim their footprint and their 660 more so I don't think they would do bankruptcy everything but I think they may have to sell some of those stores are closing so I'm going to say at least 5,000 more stores and if we can ever find the square footage I think it'll be, about as bad as 2019 so I think 2017-18 was a huge step up 8 1617 and 17 18 wheeler big steps up I think we'll go sideways which is still going to be pretty bad though because that step up Rick kind of this 5000 larger stores whatever the equivalent Sopranos that I do believe was larger than 2017 just my first pregnancy second one is you know your your buddy Scott Galway also known as Professor go away he is really big on TV telling everyone that the government's Crackdown on Amazon and for some spin-off AWS he's backed off that a little bit and now he's talking about well maybe they'll have to have tracking stock I'm going to predict this is one of my anti production so you can Amazon doesn't do those things but this will be the year that they know that adds does get broken out and I'll be specific here as its own p&l kind of line out of the bath report because when I kind of build a spreadsheet and it got to take. Cloud stuff which is AWS and how I think adds is growing and I think. [1:03:30] Off the record I think you for ads will probably do as much as the rest of 2018 which is going to blow people's minds but it makes total sense, me and probably you cuz that's what you would do if you were brand new grass is so when I put in a spreadsheet and track them I believe it's going to be about the same size as AWS by like 20 22 or 23 1 and I've seen a couple of Reports say the same thing, that is my second prediction and just to recap it again they're going to have to break out they won't and I put an end in here in tribute to. To Jason they're not going to spin or tracking stock AWS but they will have to break out ads. What's your prediction is I think too kind of the companies out there and I've talked about Amazon and it's in the ones that are struggling on Mosside you have kind of eBay and Alibaba they had come like what I would call up computer in 2018 it is kind of you know it wasn't a great year it wasn't a bad year but they both had they have type beat up over the last year at least companies both have leaders that they want to grow and be aggressive, I feel like something's going to happen there and when I kind of think about it I've always thought this would be a perfect kind of combination so these these two companies just feel like they belong together to me so I'm going to call that there is going to be a combination there. [1:04:52] Number for and I know she didn't really make platform prediction the last platform that last chair kind of out there is Shopify now all the cloud and infection on this all all the cloud guys seem to have kind of bed on their platform rent and I will get them all but I think, so then you may be single who's left by like a Shopify and then another footnote is shopify's really expensive assets oh yeah honest AC it's like for 5 billion dollars but it has to be small revenue is going to use super high valuation so whoever buys this that really kind of limits the number of companies that buy it has to be super my prediction here is you have the ad platforms and specifically I'm thinking Google and Facebook, they're just getting pummeled right now on the ad side from data collection and and you know all the things about Russia hacking and all this in front of Congress just getting beat up I think if I had 100% of my revenue from ads and I was one of those two companies I would be willing to spend a very large sum to diversify That rumney Base because I do think that business model is going to be under external pressures for a while to mow predictions I think that last seat is taken by either fat Facebook or Google. [1:06:14] To be an ally bother someone so I'm not to be super specific there but I do think Shopify gets taken out this year and my sis production is kind of an opposite one of you so we're going to misaligned on this one I think Walmart has made a couple a lot of big bets over the last year and it's just really hard to get all this right so so spending that much on Flipkart I think Amazon shareholder base is in Amazon Walmart shoulder base isn't Amazon shareholder base and I think they look at that and they're kind of like scratching their head and thinking wow I could open a lot more stores I could then X Y and Z you could have written a dividend check so that they have a much different old school master bass been Amazon does and I think that's going to put pressure on them this year so it's a, prediction is that they're going to stumble so I think their growth rates going too slow I think they got a lot of early wins from Anna digitalizing the groceries I think a lot of those are one-time pops and, they are going to get stuck in that to keep that growth up at that and I'm north of what they said 30 40%. [1:07:18] They have to do some big m&a Flipkart has to go right zlata has to go right there and I don't think we have that flexibility to navigate to that I think they're going to have a run, I don't want that to happen so let me be clear I don't want that to happen I just think it's the natural progression of these things when you have a year where you put a bunch of bats on the table, your tab another year we're not all those bets are going to go well and truly they they're probably brace for that I think. [1:07:46] It's not going to be there nothing about a business or anything but it is going to be a tough year for them I think I'll do a cover set. Jason: [1:07:53] Interesting well I think that's a terrific sort of spectrum of predictions between the two of us and that is going to be a perfect place to leave it in the reason I say that is because we always right these show outline that we intend to be 30 45 minutes and I believe I predicted this show would be 70 minutes and right now we're at 67 minutes so I'm calling it I can be right about one thing it's how long the show is but if you are disappointed that we could have shortened you there was something you wanted to discuss that we didn't get to or you have any questions about the show or ideas for future shows feel free to keep the dialogue going on Facebook you can jump on their pop a question will be happy to chat with you as always we greatly appreciate those five star reviews on iTunes that's a wonderful belated Christmas present to Scott or I so feel free to the jump on there and we would greatly appreciate it. Scot: [1:08:52] Thanks everyone for joining so hope you enjoyed the first show 2019 happy New Year and we look forward to spending 2019 with you talking about what's going on in e-commerce retail and the rest of e-commerce insurance. Jason: [1:09:08] Absolutely and so until next time happy commercing.

Bloomberg TV's Emily Chang speaks to IBM CEO Ginni Rometty about artificial intelligence and the impact of trade tariffs, followed by a recap from Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Software Analyst Anurag Rana. Eliza Ronalds-Hannon, Bloomberg News Distressed Credit Reporter, and Lauren Coleman-Lochner, Bloomberg News Corporate Finance Reporter, explain how Eddie Lampert will get another shot at keeping Sears Holdings from liquidation. David Mastrangelo, Managing Director at KeyBanc Capital Markets, discusses investing in SPAAM stocks which include Salesforce, PayPal, Amazon, Adobe and Microsoft. And We Drive to the Close of Markets with Scott Clemons, Chief Investment Strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.  Hosts: Carol Massar and Jason Kelly. Producer: Paul Brennan  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Bloomberg TV's Emily Chang speaks to IBM CEO Ginni Rometty about artificial intelligence and the impact of trade tariffs, followed by a recap from Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Software Analyst Anurag Rana. Eliza Ronalds-Hannon, Bloomberg News Distressed Credit Reporter, and Lauren Coleman-Lochner, Bloomberg News Corporate Finance Reporter, explain how Eddie Lampert will get another shot at keeping Sears Holdings from liquidation. David Mastrangelo, Managing Director at KeyBanc Capital Markets, discusses investing in SPAAM stocks which include Salesforce, PayPal, Amazon, Adobe and Microsoft. And We Drive to the Close of Markets with Scott Clemons, Chief Investment Strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.  Hosts: Carol Massar and Jason Kelly. Producer: Paul Brennan 

Al Hunt, Bloomberg Opinion columnist, discusses the key races to watch in the midterm elections. Schwark Satyavolu, Trinity Ventures General Partner, on investment opportunities in fintech. Brian Rye, Senior Government analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, on the impact the midterm elections could have on major policies, ranging from healthcare to energy. Noel Hebert, Director of Credit Research for Bloomberg Intelligence, on Sears creditors asking a court to probe Eddie Lampert’s transactions that they say may have bilked them of $2.6 billion. 

Before Sears filed for bankruptcy, it was run by a reclusive billionaire who'd call into meetings from his mansion on a Florida island. It was one of the unusual ways Eddie Lampert ran the department store chain. He also stopped investing in the stores. The CEO had outwitted kidnappers, and many thought he was defying skeptics on Wall Street, too. This is the story of how Sears stayed alive so long, and how it all fell apart.

On today’s show Seth talks to Bernt Ullmann of Celebrity Lifestyle Brands about the importance of creating brand equity, and how the principles of brand marketing for celebrities can translate to non-celebrity brands and entrepreneurs. Disclaimer: Please note that the audio quality is not the best, but the content is and it comes across. Bernt Ullmann is arguably the world’s leading expert in celebrity brand development, brand management, licensing and distribution, and monetization having contributed to the successful launches of brands for clients including Jennifer Lopez, Adam Levine, Nicki Minaj and many others. The brands he has worked with have generated over $6 billion dollars in global sales, which include FUBU International and Phat Fashions. He has negotiated highly lucrative brand deals including the largest celebrity brand deal in history at $3.5 billion. Often referred to as “The Man Behind the Brands”, Mr. Ullmann has been the trusted business acceleration expert by top fashion moguls and CEOs such as Daymond John, Eddie Lampert, and Tommy Hilfiger. Mr. Ullmann is the CEO of Celebrity Lifestyle Brands, a brand development company that leverages the social media followings of celebrities and influencers to launch product and apparel brands in the digital marketplace. For more about Bernt Ullmann, visit https://berntullmann.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Eddie Lampert, the chairman and CEO of Sears Holdings, is Professor Finkelstein's fourth worst CEO of 2013. A hedge fund genius intent on realizing his vision of restoring the mega department store model, Lampert doesn't seem to realize that this model is sadly out of date.