Podcast appearances and mentions of mickey drexler

Summary: Back in February, we were joined on the show by Stuart Haselden, CEO of outdoor apparel company, Arc'Teryx. Hearing about his retail philosophy and personal story was absolutely fascinating, so we decided to revisit the episode for listeners who may have missed it the first time around.   You've heard it before: "The customer is always right." For many businesses, that's sound advice. But for premium brands, the road to success often takes a different route. Rather than reacting to every shift in demand, it's about staying rooted in a philosophy: delivering quality, staying authentic, and fostering relationships that stand the test of time. Today's guest has fully embraced this approach, leveraging his brand's strengths to set a new standard of excellence in the technical apparel market. Stuart Haselden has been the CEO of Arc'teryx since 2021 and brings over 20 years of global experience in retail and premium brands to the company, having worked in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia for brands such as Away Travel, Lululemon, J.Crew, and Saks Fifth Avenue. His career began in the United States Army where he served as a Cavalry Officer—a defining experience for him that has shaped his views on leadership. It was also the beginning of a lifelong love of mountain and alpine sports, as Stuart learned to ski in the Austrian Alps while stationed in Germany.  In this episode, Stuart shares how Arc'teryx has expanded its direct-to-consumer model while preserving the brand's authenticity. He explains how a relentless focus on performance and innovation has fueled the company's growth and set it apart in the competitive technical apparel space. Stuart also talks about the leadership strategies that have guided Arc'teryx's evolution—and how they're shaping its future. Highlights:Background on Arc'teryx and the road to becoming a premium brand (2:43)Stuart's history in retail and how he was introduced to the opportunity at Arc'teryx (4:19)Stuart discusses Arc'teryx's position in the Amer Sports portfolio (7:18)Competition in the technical apparel field and what differentiates Arc'teryx (8:35)Stuart describes how Arc'teryx maintains its authenticity while it grows (10:17)How Arc'teryx evolved from a retail model to a direct-to-consumer approach (13:07)Current scale of the business (15:15)Stuart discusses future expansion opportunities (16:55)The senior team at Arc'teryx (18:43)Stuart's management style and the leadership techniques he learned from Mickey Drexler (20:37)Stuart's predictions for retail in 2025 (20:54)Arc'teryx's unique sustainability efforts (21:54)How Arc'teryx adapts its retail spaces when entering new communities (23:21) Links:Stuart Haselden on LinkedInArc'teryx on LinkedInArc'teryx WebsiteICR LinkedIn ICR Twitter ICR Website Feedback:If you have questions about the show, or have a topic in mind you'd like discussed in future episodes, email our producer, marion@lowerstreet.co.

Mickey Drexler, “the man who dressed America,” dominated American fashion as CEO of Gap and J. Crew, creating Old Navy and Madewell along the way. He’s also one of the business leaders Martha admires the most. Between the two of them, they have decades of experience in retail, and billions of dollars in sales. Today they talk about his successes and challenges, and creating a lasting brand in the age of fast fashion and convenience.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dan Levine is a long standing industry leader with an incredible backstory that brought him from the East Coast to the West as part of the strategic plan that he created… when he was 11. From his days at The Gap under the iconic Mickey Drexler to REI, Hurley, RVCA, Skullcandy, Stance and other iconic brands in the surf and outdoor markets; he now operates the premier lifeguard outfitter brand, Original Watermen. Dan's passion for business, the ocean and for those that work in and on it, is crystal clear, and how he came to this point in his career (and his life) is an extraordinary story.

My guest on the show today is Maggie Bullock, author of Kingdom of Prep, the Inside Story of The Rise and (Near) Fall of J Crew. Maggie's also the co-author of the Substack newsletter The Spread, which offers an insider's look and cultural commentary on the world of women's magazines.Maggie and I talk primarily about the subject of her book, J Crew, which holds a special place in my heart, brain and psyche. We talk about our own respective experiences of preppy culture, particularly in high school, and about how fashion relates to issues of politics, race, culture, weight, history, class, psychology, and more. We talk about the key figures in the creation of the two J Crew golden ages, first the founding visionaries, Arthur Cinader and his daughter Emily Cinader, and then the saviors of the brand after it was wrecked by private equity, retail wiz Mickey Drexler and chief designer Jenna Lyons.It's a really interesting conversation, I think, even if you're not interested in clothes in the way that Maggie and I are.The Rise, Fall, and Resurgence of J. Crew: An Insider's LookIn this episode of Eminent Americans, host Dan Oppenheimer interviews Maggie Bullock, author of 'Kingdom of Prep: The Inside Story of The Rise and Fall of J. Crew.' They explore the fascinating history of J. Crew, from its founding by Arthur and Emily Senatore, its evolution and perfectionism, to its tumultuous relationship with private equity and eventual decline. The discussion also delves into the cultural impact of the brand, its transformation under Mickey Drexler and Jenna Lyons, and the intersection of fashion with issues such as race, class, and gender. The episode is dedicated to Dan's late friend, Aaron Hess, and his iconic J. Crew role-neck sweater.00:39 Diving into J Crew: A Brand Close to Our Hearts00:50 Exploring Preppy Culture and Fashion's Broader Impact01:26 Dedication to a Friend01:55 Welcoming Maggie Bullock02:36 The Kingdom of Prep: J Crew's Story03:33 The Business and Cultural Evolution of J Crew06:31 Private Equity and Its Impact on Fashion08:52 The Origins and Growth of J Crew18:52 Personal Reflections on Preppy Culture23:59 The Iconic Role Neck Sweater30:44 Landing Supermodel Linda Evangelista34:06 The Fashion Moment That Elevated J Crew34:36 The Influence of Male Models36:05 J Crew's Cultural Impact in Schools39:45 The Perfectionism of J Crew's Founders43:52 Mickey Drexler's Turnaround Strategy57:03 Jenna Lyons' Creative Vision01:02:50 The Challenges of High Fashion01:06:17 The Resilience of Preppy Style01:08:53 Conclusion and Future Prospects Get full access to Eminent Americans at danieloppenheimer.substack.com/subscribe

Summary:  You've heard it before: "The customer is always right." For many businesses, that's sound advice. But for premium brands, the road to success often takes a different route. Rather than reacting to every shift in demand, it's about staying rooted in a philosophy: delivering quality, staying authentic, and fostering relationships that stand the test of time. Today's guest has fully embraced this approach, leveraging his brand's strengths to set a new standard of excellence in the technical apparel market. Stuart Haselden has been the CEO of Arc'teryx since 2021 and brings over 20 years of global experience in retail and premium brands to the company, having worked in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia for brands such as Away Travel, Lululemon, J.Crew, and Saks Fifth Avenue. His career began in the United States Army where he served as a Cavalry Officer—a defining experience for him that has shaped his views on leadership. It was also the beginning of a lifelong love of mountain and alpine sports, as Stuart learned to ski in the Austrian Alps while stationed in Germany.  In this episode, Stuart shares how Arc'teryx has expanded its direct-to-consumer model while preserving the brand's authenticity. He explains how a relentless focus on performance and innovation has fueled the company's growth and set it apart in the competitive technical apparel space. Stuart also talks about the leadership strategies that have guided Arc'teryx's evolution—and how they're shaping its future. Highlights:Background on Arc'teryx and the road to becoming a premium brand (2:43)Stuart's history in retail and how he was introduced to the opportunity at Arc'teryx (4:19)Stuart discusses Arc'teryx's position in the Amer Sports portfolio (7:18)Competition in the technical apparel field and what differentiates Arc'teryx (8:35)Stuart describes how Arc'teryx maintains its authenticity while it grows (10:17)How Arc'teryx evolved from a retail model to a direct-to-consumer approach (13:07)Current scale of the business (15:15)Stuart discusses future expansion opportunities (16:55)The senior team at Arc'teryx (18:43)Stuart's management style and the leadership techniques he learned from Mickey Drexler (20:37)Stuart's predictions for retail in 2025 (20:54)Arc'teryx's unique sustainability efforts (21:54)How Arc'teryx adapts its retail spaces when entering new communities (23:21) Links:Stuart Haselden on LinkedInArc'teryx on LinkedInArc'teryx WebsiteICR LinkedIn ICR Twitter ICR Website Feedback:If you have questions about the show, or have a topic in mind you'd like discussed in future episodes, email our producer, marion@lowerstreet.co.

Does the momentum portend a rough patch for stocks overall? We discuss with Strategas' Chris Verrone. Plus, JPMorgan Asset Management's Gabriela Santos and Invesco's Kristina Hooper weigh in on this time of uncertainty for investors. And, retailing legend Mickey Drexler weighs in on the health of the consumer and tells us where he is seeing pockets of opportunity in that sector. 

When asked the question “What is it that you do?” sometimes the answer isn't so simple, and it's best to let the work speak for itself. Such has been the case for Kristen Naiman, the chief creative officer at The RealReal, who's worn many hats over the course of her career, from writer to editor to stylist to fashion executive. In this week's episode, Kristen unpacks her fascinating journey, from her first industry gigs that had her styling at a short-lived Condé Nast title in its heyday (who remembers Condé Nast Sports for Women?), as well as for Hanson, who brought her along to style and creative direct them on a world tour when she was in her early 20s. Tune in to hear more of Kristen's incredible lore, as well as what it was like learning the fashion and media ropes in the thriving community of creative people in downtown New York and through her friends at PAPER; how a DIY jean jacket she embroidered for Taylor Hanson got the attention of the Gap, and helped her get a job in its concept department in the peak Mickey Drexler days; why the ability to take the cultural temperature is the key to a brand's success; how she wound up working with Isaac Mizrahi for a decade as a fashion director, and how he taught her the importance of being unapologetically yourself; lessons from her subsequent decade-long stint at Kate Spade at the dawn of the digital era; why working in fashion requires a spidey sense and gut instinct that data can't fully replace; why brands are dipping into long form content and why The RealReal just launched a Substack; how a cold DM helped her get her job at The RealReal; how she hopes to change the relationship with how we consume fashion; what it was like editing Kim Hastreiter's forthcoming book, Stuff: A New York Life of Cultural Chaos, and much more.This episode was recorded in the podcast studio at The SQ @ 205 Hudson. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thenewgarde.substack.com

This episode will transform how you think about style, aspiration, and the art of knowing what people want before they know it themselves. From working in department stores to advising Steve Jobs on Apple's retail strategy when it didn't have retail at all, Drexler's career traces the evolution of American retail itself: from local shops to mall dominance, from catalog to digital, from mass market to personalization. Whether you're an aspiring entrepreneur, a retail enthusiast, or someone looking to build a brand that stands the test of time, Mickey shares invaluable insights on what separates truly successful brands from the rest. Mickey Drexler is the chairman of Alex Mill. Before that, he was the CEO of J. Crew and sat on the Board of Directors of Apple. He founded Old Navy and Madewell, and served as the CEO of Gap from 1983–2002. Learn why gaining real-world insights—and not just reports or data—is crucial to staying ahead of the competition. Newsletter - The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it's completely free. Learn more and sign up at fs.blog/newsletter Upgrade — If you want to hear my thoughts and reflections at the end of the episode, join our membership: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/membership⁠⁠ and get your own private feed. Watch on YouTube: @tkppodcast (02:16) How Mickey Drexler became Mickey Drexler (07:04) Lessons from redefining Gap (12:47) Merchant, defined (15:17) How Drexler evaluates stores (19:20) Lessons from running Gap (21:19) On Old Navy (27:26) On Steve Jobs and Working with Apple (33:00) Re-making J. Crew (37:00) Drexler's superpower (43:40) Current-day retailers who are great (45:10) How Drexler got "Madewell" (47:15) What makes something a classic look? (50:20) On success Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jimmy addresses the latest news, like New York City experiencing its first drought in 20 years, before speaking with Keke Palmer, William Zabka and Mickey Drexler.

In today's episode of Big Shot, we're joined by retail legend Mickey Drexler, whose transformative leadership reshaped some of the biggest names in fashion. Over his 18-year tenure at The Gap, Mickey took the company from $400 million to $14 billion in revenue, revolutionizing casual wear and spotting a new retail opportunity that led to the creation of Old Navy. His influence extends far beyond The Gap—he also founded Madewell, served on Apple's board for over a decade, and now works alongside his son Alex on the growing success of Alex Mill. In our conversation today, we cover:  Mickey's humble beginnings in a one-bedroom apartment in The Bronx Mickey's heuristic for hiring and what draws him to people Mickey's friendship with Steve Jobs and what it was like serving on each other's boards The importance of urgency and why a bad decision is better than indecision How Mickey does market research, and his process behind both The Gap and Old Navy Mickey's thoughts on entrepreneurship, his family, and much more! — In This Episode We Cover: (02:53) Welcome Mickey Drexler (03:29) Mickey's childhood in the Bronx (12:40) The traits Mickey looks for in people he's hiring (14:56) Why Mickey values kindness and treating others fairly, regardless of their status  (16:40) Why the best training is doing the job (18:40) Mickey's high standards, obsession with data, and the importance of instinct  (28:39) How Steve Jobs persuaded Mickey to join Apple's board (32:33) What Mickey admired about Steve Jobs (34:20) Why a bad decision is better than indecision (36:34) What makes a great website (39:43) Mickey's process for helping The Gap standout (46:32) Why Mickey calls the fashion business a commodity business (47:20) How Dayton Hudson's Target stores inspired Mickey to build Old Navy (54:15) How Mickey got the name for Old Navy (57:42) The challenges Mickey faced opening Old Navy  (1:00:20) How the meaning of value depends on the individual customer (1:05:29) The call from Steve Jobs that marked an end to Mickey's time at The Gap (1:11:20) Mickey's wife, Peggy's background (1:13:22) Mickey's experience taking J. Crew private (1:18:17) How Mickey balances work and family  (1:20:03) Mickey's thoughts on Jewish entrepreneurship, especially in the fashion industry (1:21:52) Mickey's parting advice on learning entrepreneurship thoughts on school (1:23:37) What David learned at school, and Harley's learnings from Mickey Where To Find Mickey Drexler • X: https://twitter.com/millarddrexler • Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mickeydrexler • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/millard-mickey-drexler-1b00a9269/ Where To Find Big Shot:  • Website: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.bigshot.show/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ • YouTube: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@bigshotpodcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠   • TikTok: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.tiktok.com/@bigshotshow⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ • Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/bigshotshow/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠   • Harley Finkelstein: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/harleyf⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  • David Segal: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/tea_maverick⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ • Production and Marketing: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://penname.co⁠

In this episode of the Retail Pilot Podcast, Ken Pilot engages with retail legend Mickey Drexler, discussing the current state of retail, pricing trends, and the importance of customer experience. Drexler shares insights from his journey at Alex Mill, emphasizing the significance of quality, team dynamics, and the evolving landscape of retail. The conversation also features Ali Dillon, the President of Alex Mill, Alex Drexler, Founder, and Creative Director, Somsack Sikhounmuong, who discuss their roles and the brand's vision, highlighting the importance of community and innovative marketing strategies. Key Takeaways Include:Recent Success: Alex Mill has experienced strong sales performance attributed to changes in merchandising and management.Product Focus: Sweaters and denim are particularly successful categories for Alex Mill, with emphasis on fit and quality.Retail Strategy: Alex Mill follows a "less is more" approach, focusing on smaller store sizes and selective expansion.Marketing Channels: Instagram is a primary driver of brand awareness, with the company also exploring TikTok marketing.Expansion Plans: Alex Mill is planning to open a new store in Rockefeller Center, aiming for an early November launch.Customer Acquisition: Word-of-mouth marketing plays a crucial role in the brand's growth and recognition.Product Diversity: Mickey emphasizes the importance of offering multiple color options for key items to create visual impact and customer appeal. Sustainability and reworking products can also create new opportunities.Team Dynamics: A strong, diverse team is critical for successful product execution and business operations.

In this riveting business masterclass, the legendary “merchant prince” of retail reveals how he transformed the Gap and J. Crew into world-wide brands, built Old Navy from the ground up, and launched his latest venture, Alex Mill, with his son. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lisa and Michael Fine are some of the most colorful, creative and inspiring people I know! They the Co-Owners of Quiet Town, a sustainable elevatedbathroom decor brand including shower curtains, bath rugs, and bath towels. They are here to share all about starting a business, what keeps them excited, how they fell in love... and so much MAGIC! Lisa Fine began her career in magazines, assisting, writing and styling for YM, Vogue, In Styleetc...She went on to become the Director of Styling at Madewell for over a decade where shelearned the fundamentals of launching a brand from Mickey Drexler and Jenna Lyons.Lisa co-created Quiet Town after realizing there was a lack of thoughtfully-crafted bathroomaccessories. She serves as Creative Director and oversees all design, marketing and production.Michael Fine began his career selling advertising in magazines in 1998 and quickly realized hispassion was for photography. After assisting some of the biggest fashion photographers he wenton to shoot editorial and commercial work for manyhousehold-named clients and magazines...Michael generously offered to help Lisa out with Quiet Town and the rest is history.Michael shoots the majority of Quiet Town's imagery in addition to overseeing the growth anddevelopment of the brand.Lisa and Michael started Quiet Town in 2016 but dreams about the brand had begun years before when Lisa saw an opportunity in the market. Quiet Town is a lifestyle brand aimed at elevating the bathroom space through color, texture, quality and thoughtfulness. Quiet Town is devoted to making things we use every day like shower curtains and bath rugs fun. Most importantly, they create everything consciously, working with partners we trust who value their people and the environment. Thank you Lisa and Michael for bringing color and joy into our bathrooms! WE LOVE YOU!Please enjoy this amazing episode! Follow them @quiettownhome 

In a candid and mellifluous conversation, the legendary fashion executive and Alex Mill chairman shares his secrets of the trade, explains what he looks for in a restaurant, reveals his patented trend-o-meter, discusses his theories of taste, offers reflections on his journeys, and so much more! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Mickey Drexler is the former CEO of Ann Taylor, the Gap, J.Crew and creator of spin-off brands Old Navy and Madewell. Mickey is currently the Alex Mill chairman and chief investor. This episode is a unique opportunity to learn from this legendary fashion industry leader and mentor.

Solus Alternative Asset Management's Dan Greenhaus and BNY Mellon's Alicia Levine explain their forecasts and whether or not they believe in the broadening. Plus, Sara Naison-Tarajano from Goldman Sachs Private Wealth is revealing how she is advising her ultra high net worth clients. And, retailing legend Mickey Drexler weighs in on the state of the consumer, inflation and the latest NRF/CNBC retail data. 

The retail environment is moving at lightning speed, making C-suite succession planning more difficult. Case in point? Gap has had a revolving door of CEOs ever since trying to replace Mickey Drexler. Leading the retail industry in a digital marketplace and finding the right talent has become an exercise in art and science. Join Robin, Shelley, and Kevin Finnegan from Global Recruiters of Lowcountry as they discuss why understanding frontline workers and moving fast on the tech side are highly sought-after skills for today's leadership. Leading brands Under Armour, Footlocker, and Uniqlo top the list of delivering the right balance of high touch and high tech. For more strategic insights and compelling content, visit TheRobinReport.com, where you can read, watch, and listen to content from Robin Lewis and other retail industry experts, and be sure to follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter.

Welcome to Made in the Hamptons , I'm your host Jill Laurence and this week I have a wonderful conversation with the man regarded as the merchant prince, former gap and JCrew CEO, Mickey Drexler.Mickey opens up about his early days in the retail industry at big names such as Bloomingdales and Ann Taylor, where he would sharpen his skills to move onto a pivotal role at the Gap. During his tenure he created the mega brand Old Navy, which would soar to unimaginable popularity, turning the Gap brand from a failing jean shop to an $18billion retail giant.Things would take drastic turn though as Mickey would be ousted from the company and you'll never believe who delivered the startling news.He would soon rebound at JCrew, where he also created the Madewell brand, turning the struggling preppy retailer into a design darling and favorite among the budding influencer industry. Today, he is a partner at Alex Mill, a brand the embodies the timeless and attainable design that Mickey is long known for.We also chatted about Mickey's impressive real estate collection namely his love for renovating historical homes in the Hamptons, one of which was Montauk's Eothen, the former long time estate of Andy Warhol, which has entertained such famous names as Jackie Onassis, The Rolling Stones, John Lennon, Halston and many more.I found it to be a wonderful conversation about resiliency, determination and hard work and I think you will really enjoy it as well. So without further ado, my conversation with Mickey Drexler.

What do the GAP, Anne Taylor, Old Navy, and J.Crew have in common?   Well, aside from having a wide selection of stylish clothing, they were all run by the same guy, Millard "Mickey" S. Drexler.   In the 1980s when it appeared as though Anne Taylor would have to close its doors, Mickey was named CEO and victoriously revived the well-known fashion company, doubling its number of stores. He joins Liz to discuss how a kid from the Bronx managed to become one of the most successful retail clothing CEOs in history. Follow Liz on Twitter: @LizClaman Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta aren't just investing in AI internally; CNBC's Julia Boorstin reports, big tech is also playing a key role in the AI startup ecosystem. Aneesh Chopra, CareJourney president and former White House Chief Technology Officer, discusses whether big tech is playing too big a role in the AI stack, and whether regulators will soon crack down on the burgeoning sector. Retail visionary Mickey Drexler, former J.Crew Group chairman and CEO and current Alex Mill chairman, discusses retail's latest earnings, shrink, and the state of the consumer. Plus, Microsoft has submitted a new deal for the takeover of Activision Blizzard and chip designer Arm, which is owned by Japan's SoftBank, has filed to go public via a Nasdaq listing. Julia Boorstin - 12:42Aneesh Chopra - 16:03Courtney Reagan - 24:09Mickey Drexler - 25:05In this episode:Aneesh Chopra, @aneeshchopraJulia Boorstin, @JBoorstinCourtney Reagan, @courtreaganBecky Quick, @BeckyQuickJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkKatie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie

When Gap was failing, Mickey Drexler didn't just increase sales. He made it into a pop culture staple of the 80s and 90s. But that wasn't enough to keep him from getting fired. At his next job, he was not just the CEO. He bought stock with his own personal money to bolster J.Crew.

I love a good fashion episode, and this is definitely a good fashion episode! Today on the show I've got Maggie Bullock -- a writer for Vogue, Elle, Vanity Fair, The Cut, and more -- and we're talking about J. Crew, the original lifestyle brand. From its founding 40 years ago to now has seen the company go from the highest of highs to filing for bankruptcy in 2020. How did this happen? And how is J. Crew doing today? We dig into it all in a book Vogue calls one of its most anticipated books of 2023. The Kingdom of Prep: The Inside Story of the Rise and (Near) Fall of J. Crew by Maggie Bullock

Journalist Maggie Bullock began her career in the beauty department of Vogue before spending 13 years at Elle, where she oversaw the fashion and beauty pages and wrote her fair share of celebrity profiles. In her new book, The Kingdom of Prep: The Inside Story of the Rise and (Near) Fall of J.Crew, Bullock shares the definitive history of J.Crew, including all of its juicy internal politics and the backstories of larger-than-life characters Mickey Drexler and Jenna Lyons, plus the history of the subculture of prep and its place in the American psyche. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Journalist Maggie Bullock began her career in the beauty department of Vogue before spending 13 years at Elle, where she oversaw the fashion and beauty pages and wrote her fair share of celebrity profiles. In her new book, The Kingdom of Prep: The Inside Story of the Rise and (Near) Fall of J.Crew, Bullock shares the definitive history of J.Crew, including all of its juicy internal politics and the backstories of larger-than-life characters Mickey Drexler and Jenna Lyons, plus the history of the subculture of prep and its place in the American psyche. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

David Tepper was famously long on the Fed-driven market of the last decade. But now, he says he's “leaning short” on stocks because of it! We'll look at why, and whether he's right. Plus, we have more details on the FTX bankruptcy scandal, and its impact on the entire crypto space. We'll speak with one expert who remains bullish on the space, and will explain her case. And, from a ‘perfect storm' in the retail sector, to an actual storm that could derail your travel plans, we'll hear from retail legend Mickey Drexler about all of that.

E5: When does it make sense for you to bootstrap your business? And when should you raise funding? We're talking about the classic question of bootstrapping vs. fundraising. After making this important decision myself, these are the main considerations that you need to know and they may not be what you think. ***TOPICS:Stakeholders Deciding Your Company's Future (1:22)Who are the decision-makers in your business? If you want full control over the future direction of your company, bootstrapping is the way to go. Ty Haney & Outdoor Voices (2:46)Outdoor Voices, an athleisure apparel brand, was one of the hottest direct-to-consumer startups at one point. At one point, Outdoor Voices had 130 employees with 11 brick-and-mortar stores nationwide.  Outdoor Voices had raised more than $60 million in VC funding. Mickey Drexler, famous for building both the Gap and J. Crew into retail icons, invested in the company and served as chairman of its Board of Directors. Haney and Drexler had conflicting views on the company's future. Eventually, this divide drove Haney out of her own company.Lifestyle Business (5:05)If you're bootstrapped, you decide how you want to design your own life and how your business fits within it. As the primary decision maker, you choose how fast you want to grow.Type of Business You Are Building (7:03)If you are starting a company in a market that's already well-established, it's better to bootstrap. If your company is changing or completely reshaping an industry, you may need to raise VC funding so that you can deploy as much leverage as possible. Blitzscaling (8:42)According to Reid Hoffman, Co-Founder of LinkedIn and Partner at venture capital firm Greylock, blitzscaling is what you do when you need to grow quickly.Optimizing for Money vs. Time (9:05)A bootstrapped company needs to prioritize cash flow and preserve capital above everything else. A venture-backed company's top priority is growing as fast as possible at all costs in a race to become the industry leader.***LINKS:Episode 1 - How to Turn Your Passion Into a BusinessEpisode 3 -  Secrets of CompoundingJOIN: First Class Founders Premium MembershipDOWNLOAD: Hyper-Visuals For Our Episodes (Free)***FOLLOW / REVIEW:- Follow - Leave 5-star review***CONNECT W/ YONG-SOO:- X- Threads- LinkedIn- Newsletter***First Class Founders is a show for indie hackers, bootstrapped founders, CEOs, solopreneurs, content creators, startup entrepreneurs, and SaaS startups covering topics like build in public, audience growth, product marketing, scaling up, side hustles, holding company, etc. Past guests include Arvid Kahl, Tyler Denk, Noah Kagan, Clint Murphy, Jay Abraham, Andrew Gazdecki, Matt McGarry, Nick Huber, Khe Hy, and more. Episode you might like:Future of Newsletters with Tyler Denk, Founder & CEO at BeehiivFrom Zero to 100K Subscribers: How to Grow Your Newsletter like a Pro with Newsletter Growth Expert Matt McGarry...

BoF's Cathaleen Chen and Marc Bain join Lauren Sherman to talk about retailers' big hires, hopes and plans for bringing their brands back to life.   Background:      J.Crew and Gap defined how Americans dressed for much of the '90s and 2000s, until their clothes grew stale, malls emptied out and fast fashion took retail's reins. Then, during the pandemic, J.Crew filed for bankruptcy and Gap closed hundreds of stores. More recently, they've both orchestrated attempts to win back consumers: Gap, with its Yeezy-Gap collaboration, and J.Crew, with new mainline designers, including former Supreme creative director and Noah-founder Brendon Babenzien, whose menswear collection dropped a few weeks ago.    Though they share similar histories, the retailers' comeback plans couldn't be any more different.    “[Fashion] is a challenging business because people love it but to actually make money in it is not the easiest thing in the world… It takes a lot of ruthlessness and difficult decision making,” said Lauren Sherman, BoF chief correspondent.      Key Insights:      In the late-aughts, CEO Mickey Drexler and designer Jenna Lyons turned J.Crew  into a fashion powerhouse before insurmountable debt sent it into bankruptcy a few years later. Meanwhile, Gap struggled to define its design aesthetic after dominating 1990s mall fashion with its preppy basics.  With its 2020 appointment of the artist then known as Kanye West, Gap has been able to generate hype, but not sustained sales. Yeezy Gap and Gap are still mostly bifurcated: its retail rollout in Times Square featured clothes in black trash bags, in a blacked-out room separate from the rest of the Gap store. Gap has a mostly mass-market customer — begging the question of whether Yeezy Gap, even if better integrated into its model, is the right fit.  Under former Madewell chief Libby Wadle's leadership, J.Crew has restructured and tapped two sharp designers to home in on its heritage while edging it up and playing with trends. Babenzian released his first collection in late July, which generated a ton of buzz on social media.  Both retailers face significant headwinds, but J.Crew is best poised to win given its balanced merchandising strategy aimed at satisfying new and old customers, said retail correspondent Cathaleen Chen. Particularly tough, added technology correspondent Marc Bain, is the fact that Gap is so large, and beholden to shareholders.     Additional Resources:      J.Crew's and Gap's Comeback Playbooks Couldn't Be More Different. Only One Is Working: After the pandemic, the American retailers hired big fashion names to breathe life into their brands. But as the collections released this week show, the similarities end there. The J.Crew Comeback Starts Now: With its new menswear collection under creative director Brendon Babenzien, the retailer has its best shot in years at returning to the fashion zeitgeist. Yeezy Gap Brings a Dystopian Retail Experience to Stores: Clothes from the collaboration between Gap and Ye (formerly Kanye West) went on sale in a physical Gap store for the first time today, in a blacked out space where clothes were piled into plastic bags.     Follow The Debrief wherever you listen to podcasts. 

Dubbed by the New York Times as ‘the woman who dresses America', Jenna Lyons, is a fashion icon and the co-founder/CEO of the beauty brand, LoveSeen. Having kicked off her career as an intern at Donna Karan, Jenna went on to join the design team at J.Crew, eventually becoming its President. She is recognized as the main driver behind its incredible rise to success, and is a regular feature in print and online media, including having been recognized as one of Time Magazine's 100 most influential people.After 27 years at J.Crew, Jenna was finally ready to start her own empire. She launched her company LoveSeen, a direct-to-consumer beauty brand that is reinventing fake lashes, which was largely inspired by her genetic condition that impacts her lash growth. And she was most recently, the Executive Director and main star of her reality competition show, Stylish with Jenna Lyons on HBO Max. In this episode, you'll learn how Jenna's challenging childhood influenced her attitude toward finances and her love of fashion today. Living in New York in the 1980s, she discovered a new standard of beauty that was in stark contrast to what she had known as a child. Jenna reflects on working with Mickey Drexler, former CEO and Chairman of J.Crew Group, managing people, and navigating the public eye. You'll also hear why Jenna decided to reinvent herself later in her career, how she coped with leaving J.Crew, and what she loves about working in beauty over fashion.In this episode, we'll talk to Jenna about: * The impact of Jenna's mother's attitude towards financial independence on how she approaches money today. [3:10]* How knowing you can take care of yourself affects fear and trust in relationships. [4:30]* What it was like to grow up with a genetic disorder and how sewing a skirt led to a popular girl in school asking Jenna to make one for her too. [6:40]* What it was like to live in New York in the late 1980s. [9:04]* How Jenna didn't meet the standard of beauty in the beach town she grew up in. [10:30]* The discovery of Antonio Lopez as a pivotal point in discovering her own beauty. [11:38]* How she came to intern at Donna Karan and study at Parsons University in the 90s. [12:35]* The listing that led Jenna to take a job at J.Crew without asking about the salary. [13:35]* The dramatic change at J.Crew that completely turned things around [17:20]* What it was like working with Mickey Drexler (CEO of JCrew); his alchemy skills, attunement, and insight. [18:18]* How she needed to develop skills to manage people she worked with. [21:20]* Entering the public eye starting with Domino Magazine, then Vogue with Annie Leibovitz, and the internal struggle Jenna experienced. [25:01]* Find out how Jenna navigated different transition periods in her life. [28:29]* The nine-month period of silence that helped her regroup and see what's important. [29:10]* What Jenna loves about the beauty scene: she doesn't have to think about size. [36:05]* How Jenna realized the significance of eyelashes and decided to start her business. [37:00]* How admitting that you don't know things can open you up to learn new things. [42:00]Follow Jenna:* Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jennalyonsnyc/* Website: https://loveseen.com/ * LoveSeen Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/loveseen/* Stylist by Jenna HBO Max: https://www.stylishwithjennalyons.com/ This episode is brought to you by beeya: * Learn more about beeya's seed cycling bundle at https://beeyawellness.com/free to find out how to tackle hormonal imbalances. * Get $10 off your order by using promo code BEHINDHEREMPIRE10 See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Gap Inc. is on its fifth CEO, and success still seems elusive. Ever since Mickey Drexler left, it's been the same story: not so hot. The well-intentioned BODEQUALITY strategic initiative for inclusive sizing failed in execution with Old Navy taking a sales nosedive. Gap's peer, American Eagle Outfitter had a $32 million profit in Q1 2022. What's going on here? Join Robin Lewis and Shelley E. Kohan, TRR chief strategist, as they pull back the curtain on Gap's failed quest for infinite growth.For more strategic insights and compelling content, visit TheRobinReport.com where you can read, watch, and listen to content from Robin Lewis and other industry experts.Be sure to follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter for the latest from Robin Lewis and The Robin Report.

When Gap was failing, Mickey Drexler didn't just increase sales. He made it into a pop culture staple of the 80s and 90s. But that wasn't enough to keep him from getting fired. At his next job, he was not just the CEO. He bought stock with his own personal money to bolster J. Crew.

One of the most iconic brands in financial television returns for today's issues and today's world. On this edition of Wall Street Week, Catherine Keating, BNY Mellon Investor Solutions & Wealth Management CEO & JoAnne Feeney, Advisors Capital Management Partner wrap up the week in markets as stocks drop amid Russia angst. Mickey Drexler, Former J.Crew Group Chairman & CEO & Former Gap CEO talks about the the state of retail. Plus, Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers weighs in on whether labor shortages are a demand or supply issue.  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to episode 1 of The Nordy Pod! I'm Pete Nordstrom, president of Nordstrom and your host for this podcast, in which I take you up to the 6th floor of the Nordstrom corporate headquarters for an in-depth look into our company that has endured since 1901. In this episode, you'll hear from a customer having a really bad day in the kids' department of one of our stores. You'll hear the story of a homegrown hire, starting in the stockroom and becoming one of our very best salespeople. And for the main event, I sit down with my longtime friend and extremely successful business leader (and some might say competitor), Mickey Drexler. You might not know his name, but Mickey Drexler is a legend in the fashion business. I consider him the original disrupter for changing the way we think about fashion retailing forever. He has made a massive impact on today's culture, particularly from his days as CEO at The Gap, taking it from a fledgling company and transforming it into the multi-billion-dollar genre-defining corporation it is today. Mickey shares the story of his upbringing in a tiny ground-floor apartment in the Bronx to leading some of the most successful companies in retail. Mickey was so sought after that he was practically begged by Steve Jobs to join the Apple board. The cherry on top of this whole conversation is that Mickey even gives me some advice for running Nordstrom. Thanks for joining us for episode 1. Enjoy!

EP284 - 2022 Annual Predictions h 2021 Predictions Recap Jason: Made to Order apparel business > 9 figures Yes Retailer offers viable health alt insurance option to consumers No Grocery E-Com > 10%  someone deploys(not pilots) MFC Yes Amazon Shopify Competitor (shipping solution) No Retail Media > $20B Yes Bonus – More store closures in 2021 than 2020. No Jason Total Score: 3 of 5 Scot: Amazon move to same day prime by opening a huge wave of neighborhood DCs (near DSPs) Yes Shipping (Shopify) – launch own DSP No Shopify marketplace No ‘zero friction addiction' sticks – I've seen 30-40% repeated a lot, I think it's 60-80%. commerce penetration says at 16% or better in 2021. Yes spac/ipo? Dnvb wave Yes Bonus: post-covid anti-consumerism/materialism wave No Scot Total Score: 3 of 5 We have a tie, including the tie-breaker. Here are some relevent links: eMarketer recap of Retail Media Networks Bricks Meets Clicks analysis of digital grocery space 2022 Predictions Jason: NFTs, Web 3, Metaverse, and Ultrafast delivery services are all overhyped and don't deliver meaningful commerce revenue in 2022. Shein exceeds $30B in annual sales, disrupting apparel industry Adoption of BNPL services slows down to less than 15% CAGR in 2022. Amazon opens more than 100 Amazon Fresh grocery stores Last Mile evolves Veho, X-Delivery, shipium, or Instacart gets aquired Scot: Amazon launches a competitor to Shopify webstore, possibly via a headless solution on AWS Amazon wins ultra-fast delivery. Gopuff, Gorilla, or  Jokr goes out of business in 2022 Metaverse gets lots of buzz but no revenue Livestream commerce goes mainstream in the US  Fabric gets acquired Don't forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes. Episode 284 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday, January 6th, 2022. ttp://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:23] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 284 being recorded on Thursday January sixth 2022 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scott Wingo. Scot: [0:40] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott she listeners happy New Year Jason and listeners it's 2022 here we are we made it. Jason: [0:49] I know I feel like I'm already winning because the intern type 2021 in the show notes and when I read the intro I caught it in my head I feel like that I'm impressed with myself right now. Scot: [1:00] Boom yep and there that was bad timing because there is a performance review coming up so that in turn is going to be in some pretty pretty thin ice here so we'll see hopefully they make it through. Jason: [1:13] Might be another year probation before he gets to start taking a salary. Scot: [1:18] Yeah most important question are you watching the book of Boba Fett. Jason: [1:24] I am I am we have to be careful not to do any spoilers but. Scot: [1:29] Never spoilers never a million spoiler. Jason: [1:31] Spoiler free pass. Scot: [1:33] I believe he got eaten by that giant thing in the desert oh sorry those spoiler. Jason: [1:39] Yeah. Yeah there are I will let I'm not going to reveal anything but there is sand in the new episodes. Scot: [1:49] Yeah yeah he want he like Star Wars you get a lot of sand in some people hate sand but Boba doesn't seem to mind. Jason: [1:57] No I think he's had to adjust but yeah really well done show been enjoying it felt like there was a end of the year there was kind of a little role in television programming in our household so it's been exciting too Taz some of these series come back. Scot: [2:13] Let's jump into it cuz this is sometimes one of our longest episode so we're going to try to try to not go too crazy long. Jason: [2:20] I feel like we just lost half our listenership right there. Scot: [2:23] Like I don't believe that this is gonna be a three-hour I am happy that Joe Rogan is starting to do these like three-hour heh, episodes it makes me feel better about our one hour winds so this is every the first show of every year is been are many many year, tradition to go through our past years predictions and then formulate our predictions for the upcoming year, and that is this show it is the 2021 prediction review 2022 prediction Revelation show feel like we need a sound effect for that, but. Jason: [3:00] I have a sound effect but I feel like I'm going to leave yours in. Scot: [3:02] If you can beat that you know over override it there. [3:10] So the way we do this is we do have to show is kind of doing our predictions and kind of self scoring ourselves in Jason's it's kind of, banging your head against a book typically self-flagellation or whatever it's called and then and then we are back after the show is hopefully we learn from these predictions we made and we, cast them forward to see what's going to happen this year so I feel like Jason we should I think you actually won last year if I remember. Jason: [3:41] In a major upset I feel like I had been like over 45 the the previous app that seasons. Scot: [3:48] Yeah yeah so you get the dubious honor of getting to rate your 2021 predictions first so why don't you kick us off. Jason: [3:54] Awesome yeah and spoiler alert we do not learn from the previous years. Scot: [4:00] Well part of making predictions is you yeah yeah yeah you got to kind of put it out there and that's risky. Jason: [4:07] Sure so I'm always looking forward to this episode I'm super excited about it I get you know jazzed weeks in advance and then I like dust off last year's forecast and suddenly I'm a gloomy because I realize I'm not near as clever as I remembered myself so that'll just set the tone up front so my first prediction last year was that more personalized made to order products would be taking off this year and my specific prediction was made to order a parallel with grow to be a nine figure 9 digit, business in 2021 and so good news bad news that happened so, if you add up the revenue from Indochina oh and suit supply, proper cloth and not standard you actually get now about 250 million in Revenue which is, considerably higher than nine figures. [5:14] In hindsight it wasn't that good of a prediction like we are pretty close to nine figures before last year. And so it wasn't as stretchy as I had hoped and I had in mind a lot of more. Well we're in consumer products pivoting the made to order and I specifically had been watching some some Amazon Pilots around made to order and they didn't really grow this year at also, technically I guess it was it happened but I don't feel very good about my first one. Scot: [5:46] Okay yeah well it's a win just take the W dude. Jason: [5:53] Okay all right yeah well I'll try to be more more strict going forward or just make better predictions so my second one, there's been a lot of initiatives around retailers weaning in the healthcare and I propose that at least one retailer would, launch their own health insurance or offer some alternative solution to health insurance, and while there were a bunch of investments in health care and Amazon you know in particular has done a lot in the last year I don't think that really happened so I'm giving that a no. Scot: [6:29] Yeah and in fact that was like a huge loss because Amazon Unwound their big partnership that made it seem like they were going to do a lot more in this myth. Jason: [6:37] Yeah that there is some Nuance there they they were part of a Consortium and they bailed on the Consortium but then they invested a lot more money and did several acquisitions, and expanded the scope of their own internal initiatives and it almost look like the the internal stakeholders didn't like partnering with Goldman Sachs and Berkshire Hathaway but nevertheless. I'm I'm not taking that that win that that didn't happen so. Scot: [7:09] What attracted such a big L kind of swamps the W from the first one. Jason: [7:14] Yeah cleaner it correctly so the next one was interesting I said that e-commerce would grocery e-commerce penetration with grow above 10% and I said someone will deploy not just pilot these micro fulfillment centers for grocery in both of those things basically happen so bricks me clicks which is one of the more credible sources out there for tracking grocery penetration has us at about fourteen percent penetration right now. So we definitely passed that ten percent threshold obviously aided by, the pandemic and the various waves and then several retailers leaned into mfcs a couple small retailers did deploy them, across all of their stores so like a chibi for example is aggressively rolling out mfcs Walmart I want to say spent like 14 billion dollars on on MFC so real money is, is getting invested in there so I think generally I feel good about my my grocery production number three so so. Two yeses and a know so far. Scot: [8:29] Is this a bricks and clicks thing is that a can mere mortals get that or is that something you get. Jason: [8:35] Well there's a there's a paid version which is well worth it if you follow the industry but they do publish their monthly forecasts for free on their website at bricks me cliques.com. It's pretty interesting so there you know we get. Grocery sales data from the US Department of Commerce and e-commerce data but we don't get grocery e-commerce so there's the grocery e-commerce we only get from a couple of these third-party private. Data providers and they all do it primarily based on. Big panels of consumer surveys so that's what bricks me clicks does but they they have some like pretty interesting data like you can look at what percentage of those grocery e-commerce orders were home delivery versus curbside pickup and stuff like that. Scot: [9:26] Very cool there's a how do they get their data. Jason: [9:30] Panel so they're there. Yeah they're serving a bunch of consumers yeah. Scot: [9:38] All right I'm going to remember you you did that. Jason: [9:42] You make you make use with what is available. Um and directionally emarketer published some grocery data and they kind of roll together a bunch of people's forecast there's another company out there called mercado's that publish them data and it also aligns, directionally that there we are over 10% where they disagree more is where we started before the pandemic so some of them have us starting at like two-and-a-half or three percent some of them have as high as six percent before. Um over 10 now. And if you're super interested in the interest of prolonging the show frequent friend and guest of the show Professor Dan McCarthy they he and his students just published an interesting. Cohort analysis of, um how the pandemic impacted digital restaurant sales so closely related to digital grocery right and obviously a lot more people ordered restaurant food for delivery during the pandemic but his interesting question was, um [10:49] Was that you know a pandemic Spike and it's going to go down back down to pre-pandemic levels or is it a permanent shift and what can we suss out and the way they did it is they looked at cohorts that. They ordering from restaurants for home delivery before the pandemic and how their behavior change versus first time users and what they found is like most of the growth was. Households that were already using restaurant delivery increase their usage and it appears to be more sticky the smaller cohort of people that ordered from restaurants for the first time during the pandemic, that behavior did not stick and they're not continuing to order but still the sales are up higher. There's a nice long digression for you that wasn't one of my forecast. Scot: [11:33] Always appreciate the commentary. Jason: [11:36] Yeah I'm here for you man so forecast number four was. I predicted that Amazon's Shopify competitor would be revealed, in this is a thing that we had heard about called project Santos but no one really knew what it was I said hey we're going to find out what it is and I think it's going to be a shipping solution to compete with, to fulfill orders for Shopify and take take you know a piece of the Shopify gmv. And it was in fact revealed so that's the good news it was not a shipping solution so so project Santos turned out to be, a point-of-sale system for brick-and-mortar retailers that Amazon is developing, and has still not released but is purported to be small business POS system that's going to compete with Shopify and square and some other folks in that space so, I'm giving that a no. Scot: [12:42] All right I agree on the phone. Jason: [12:44] Cool cool. Interesting news and Evolutions there to talk about on one of our subsequent new shows is there some interesting patterns that Shopify and others of, have filed in that space so we get to my fifth prediction my fifth prediction was that retail media networks were going to take off in 2021 and that they would generate more than 20 billion dollars in ad revenues, and put things in perspective like the year before we had only seen about 10 billion and AD Revenue so that was a meaningful prediction and that. Totally happen so according to emarketer we did 24 billion, in calendar year 2021 in ads that were invested in retail media Networks, um Amazon is on a run rate right now to do about 30 billion dollars a year and everybody and their brother is launching a retail media Network so the Gap is launching a retail media Network which is. Interesting most of these, retail media networks are selling ads to what we would call endemic Advertiser so your Duracell batteries you sell batteries at Walmart you buy an ad from Walmart for Duracell batteries to help more people find them. [13:57] Gap doesn't sell other people's stuff so there are no endemic advertisers on the Gap right and so super interesting that even they are trying to monetize their traffic. You know you name it they watched a retail media Network this year and just today I want to say Best Buy which already had a retail media Network, launched a new rebranded retail media Network and they're now selling ads to non-endemic advertisers as well so so that when I feel like I hit pretty well. [14:28] So you add that up and that is three corrects and and to to mrs. and folks careful listeners will note we also made a bonus prediction and the case that we tied, in my. My bonus prediction was that we would have even more store closures in 2021 than we did in 2020 and I was wildly wrong, so caveat here are the data everyone uses when they quote store closures is this core site data and core site is kind of anecdotal data and it's totally tracking Big Chain, retailers but based on their data there is like 41 percent fewer store closures in 2021 than 20/20 so so we'll call that a huge mess, um I would argue that all the store closures that happen this year were small independent retailers that got wiped out by these big chains, and we really don't have a good data source for for those but nevertheless I'll accept that I lost the bonus round badly. Scot: [15:28] Yeah in fact isn't there a record number of stores opened. Jason: [15:33] Yeah so a separate issue from the store closings is hey where there are more openings and there, there there were so not a record number of openings but the but from that course I data set more store opens opened than closed last year which so we would have had a net increase in stores. That that's interesting I wouldn't encourage retailers to pay too much attention to that because it really matters. The nature of the closed and open stores I get almost rather follow, net gains or losses in retail square footage because if you have a bunch of Macy's stores closed and you have a bunch of Dollar General stores open your closing 100,000 square foot store and opening a 10,000 square foot store. Scot: [16:22] Awesome and then you had all right so then if we include your bonus you're even so three wins and three else. Jason: [16:35] Exactly I like to think of it as three wins and two L's and the bonus only comes up if you can tie me. Scot: [16:41] Okay alright let's see how I did so. Jason: [16:46] Yeah I'm excited to hear this. Scot: [16:48] Yeah so just to remind everyone this was done a year ago in January of 21 we were merely. Nine months months depends on when you start depending I guess nine months into two covid. Jason: [17:01] That's a calendar year ago but it was actually four years of Lifetime ago. Scot: [17:06] Yeah it feels like it for sure, all right so my first thing I always like to kick off with an Amazon prediction so my Amazon prediction last year was that we would move to same day Prime by opening a huge wave of neighborhood DC's. And they would be near dsps and I got that one right that one, don't feels obvious like I don't feel like I was making too much of a prediction but at the time I remember being worried about it because I think they they were still doing most of the dsps this is where time dilation happens during covid the four-year thing you mentioned. They've just built up an incredible amount of. They call him I called him neighborhood DC's they call him delivery stations now I think is the official name where they have built you know just tons of these these interesting new. Footprints where they house a bunch of these dsps Under One Roof and then they for deploy a lot of that days things to be delivered into that out of a fulfillment center and then the the dsps just line up and deliver that stuff so it's been really interesting to watch them build that, so I would count that one as a win. Jason: [18:18] Yeah no I totally agree I'm often surprised by how many people still have this outdated model of Amazon and they imagine the Amazon is primarily doing two day shipping. Scot: [18:29] Yeah no it is they have really cranked it up especially I'm out I'm in North Carolina you're in Chicago and you guys are probably getting stuff you know. Jason: [18:38] Yeah we we are we were in early market for same-day delivery and we're kind of an epicenter for a lot of of their delivery products and the vast majority of stuff I order, um my I get two offers for wind to have it delivered between 4 and 8 a.m. or between 8 a.m. and 10 a.m. the next day. So some stuff I get same day I would just tell you there were I was listening to an Amazon earnings call and someone asked them if they were were concerned about all these ultra-fast delivery services that were popping up all these VC funded, you know 15 minutes to 1 hour delivery services that are mostly sent in one one-block radius in New York and the Amazon CFO was like. You know those those Services deliver, an assortment of 4,000 skews to a five-block radius we're currently delivering about 400,000 skews Same Day to all of America we feel pretty good about our offering what's the. Scot: [19:42] Boom drops the mic walk. Haha okay sticking to Logistics which is interesting because I was poking around and Logistics a year ago and I you know in hindsight the perfect prediction would be there's going to be a supply chain problem but I did not I did not pick that one sadly instead I said you know Shopify, so my logic here was kind of looking at the chessboard at that point in time we all know Amazon's kind of, turning the guns toward Shopify if your Shopify you know those guns are turning towards you so one of the things you do is try to get into the delivery world. They have tried but they pretty publicly there was Toby was in, was it Bloomberg he did kind of a cover story on one of the Business magazines and in there he basically admitted that you know hey were. Pretty bad at this fulfillment stuff and I think they had a customer say that they're embarrassing really bad and you know it almost seemed like there are not going to go deeper into fulfillment so I missed on that one but Asterix. I think they should and I think it's going to be a pretty big strategic. Blind spot if you're an arm the rebels in e-commerce you're gonna need to help them get the products to consumers in that last mile that's going to be where the battle is and I feel like it's a bit of a soft underbelly for them right now. Jason: [21:11] Yeah generally agree. An interesting side note that the CEO of instacart just got named to the Shopify board and I inadvertently started a little bit of LinkedIn debate about like how soon it would be before that was a potential conflict of interest and a lot of people chimed in that they thought instacart was a potential acquisition Target of Shopify which might be one way for them to to get into the the Fulfillment business. Scot: [21:48] Yeah but even that's a conflict of interest rent mean proofs proves your point not you know. Jason: [21:53] Yeah I mean clearly I'm right but that's a separate issue. Scot: [22:07] You don't think this will ever happen and everyone else in the world thinks it will so you know, this one's tricky I could make some argument that they are doing more on this and then that same article they do start to talk about it being more of a central by it I'm talking about the shop app that they have, um doing more around that centralizing your your Shopify, you know whole experience in aggregate including some search functionality they have added some search haven't looked at lately but I've seen to Twitter traffic that they have added some stuff there, but I'll all I'll take the L on this one I but I still think. That it's going to be something they do more of down the road probably in a different flavor than a traditional Marketplace but I think it's an area that they have to explore it is more in their wheelhouse than the Fulfillment sign. Jason: [23:02] For sure I certainly agree with that and I would encourage you to double down on that prediction for Fort Wayne tonight but I will say like two things I was clearly wrong on the shop a. [23:17] Like is getting much broader adoption than I would have expected because I would argue it's mostly a shipping tracking app. It has some like Merchants search capabilities it doesn't really have product search capabilities at least in general release but it's. At various times it's been the most downloaded retail app and it's bouncing around in the top four so a lot of people are getting that app and so per your point, you know they have a bunch of merchants they have a bunch of users with this app which is really hard to do this app has some Marketplace of like features and then you know I don't know you I'm sure you saw but bradstone, got to go visit Shopify and do an interview with Toby and he in his article he kind of painted a picture that that. Internal stakeholders at Shopify were wildly divided and didn't agree about. If Shopify should do a Marketplace and what it would look like and so that that makes me think. They're you know having the same debate we are and Toby himself weighed in that he's like. You're not going to see us compete with our Merchants so if they do a Marketplace as probably going to have to look. You know considerably different than the kind of marketplace I think some people are thinking about but but it's an interesting space. Scot: [24:41] Yeah, yeah and then so we'll see if this comes up again in predictions and then I the super risky thing I did last year was made a covid prediction I've learned my lesson there remember to week two weeks and we're done anyway we my prediction was we will be shocked how much quote-unquote zero friction addiction sticks I've seen 30 to 40% repeated a lot and I think it's going to be much much higher and then so I think there is some good data that points to that we haven't seen a decrease in the growth of you know online even as we've gotten into a post covid World we're kind of getting back into one with with all the Quran right now but and to your point there's a lot of interesting data like like Dan and his group did that show that it's been pretty sticky. Jason: [25:37] Yeah no I think that's totally fair a lot of people are in correctly predicting that that it's going to revert but yeah I think I think all the tangible evidence points to it being sticky. Scot: [25:52] Okay and then my fifth prediction was given all the heat around these specs and IPOs that we would have 20:21 would be a banner year for digitally native vertical Brands either going pilot getting Acquired and doing IPOs, I want to made this one I felt like it was going to be much more around these facts but then the specs pivoted and started doing these really weird esoteric things that end up, not doing very well but where I kind of snuck the win out on this one is we did have three companies that we've tracked in our kind of the oh geez of digital native vertical Brands go public so we had War be Rent the Runway and I'll Birds now they haven't done great since they went public but they did get out and they had you know the kind of met their pricing and went public and are still out there and so so there you go so that was a yes. Jason: [26:51] Yeah yeah I will certainly give that one too. Scot: [26:54] All right so at this point I am let's see three yeses and to nose. Jason: [27:02] So we're tied so the bonus comes up what was your bonus. Scot: [27:07] My bonus was that there will be I was much more optimal another covid so I got lucky on the first one I felt like we're going we're going to in 21 we would be post covid and people would kind of stop buying stuff just generally and really focus on going out and doing things and seeing the world over the holiday I went down to Orlando for three or four days and it felt like, there's definitely a segment of the population that that's out there doing that they all seem to be in Florida right now and maybe some in Texas but I think if you look at the data there's nothing to really support that in fact the we've talked on this show about the e-commerce data and Retail data and it all seems quite robust so we have not hit a.n.t. consumer materialism wave that that I predicted. [28:03] Cough so it turns out that I think we're effectively tied is that I'm doing the math right on. Jason: [28:09] I think you are and and I think all our listeners will agree that a tie is basically a huge win for me. Scot: [28:15] Given our past history yes it's the first time we've had a feels like soccer or that we're in England where that is a possible outcome. Jason: [28:23] Exactly I think I think my high school soccer team just just tied your your Premier League team. Scot: [28:31] Yep cool so yeah that but you know it fun to do these things because I would say in a volatile world like we aren't getting half of these things right I think you would agree with me that we're pretty awesome you know we there's other people out there that make predictions and they throw so much junk against the wall they get like five percent right but and they do big Victory lap so I think if you look at our records pretty good pretty solid. Jason: [29:01] Yeah no I agree and I don't think we sandbag very much either I mean sometimes in hindsight they feel like sandbags but I feel like we stretch ourselves so, so I will definitely take them. So how are you going to like pay off that that self-congratulatory pat on the back Scott you're gonna have to come up with some Whoppers for this year. [29:32] I don't I don't what do you want to do I'm sure we lost all our listeners except for my mom so whichever she prefers. Scot: [29:39] I'll go first so so my predictions this year, so my Amazon prediction number one and this is for 2022 is I predict Jeff Bezos is going to have a midlife crisis and run around it was in Miami with hot chicks and other exotic locations and take a lot of selfies for Instagram. Jason: [30:05] If you had said in dubious fashion choices than I might give it to you. Scot I'm not sure but I think as of January 6 that's already happened. Scot: [30:16] Yeah yeah yeah okay you got me that ones are what they call retcon and in the world where it has already happened alright or series prediction is I'm gonna I'm gonna double down kind of on your prediction I'm going to steal your prediction from last year and say I guess this isn't exactly what you predicted but I do feel like, Amazon is very serious about Shopify in that same article I was talking about where, Toby was there a next Amazon you know an anonymous sex annum Amazon Source you have to take that with a grain of salt said these guys crushed us they came out of nowhere and destroyed us and where we were blindsided, that seems. [31:03] Pretty pretty Amplified but I do think they have their guns trained on them so I'm going to say we're going to see Amazon come out with a serious competitor this year, and I think it's gonna you know, I imagine it could even be like a web store offering even though they started this and got rid of it I think they're going to get pretty serious about it and now I could see them come out with a, you probably won't have a lot of Headway in the first year but they're gonna I think they're gonna go right out these guys the thing that's hard to predict, there's some interesting things they could do it with AWS and headless so I'm going to kind of give myself a little space there that it could be headless versus kind of a more monolithic type SAS kind of an offering but yeah, so I think they're going to get pretty serious about. Jason: [31:54] Okay yeah yeah I could I like that I can't I see that and you could imagine bundling like AWS Commerce platform with a bunch of the traditional merchant services from Amazon like fulfillment and payment and stuff like that. Scot: [32:08] Another Amazon one is and you kind of foreshadow this when you're talking about the Amazon thing there's there's hundreds of millions of dollars if not billions going into these do have a name for them fast. Jason: [32:23] Yeah well ultra-fast delivery is the. Scot: [32:25] Ultra-fast slurry okay these companies so there's like go puff and there's one that has like an animal name like. Gorilla yeah Joker yep yeah I've been I don't know how DC is letting them do that one but anyway you know so these guys have raised billions of dollars and it's a hot Market but I think Amazon is kind of going to train their guns on that and I think they're going to put a real hurting on them, I think we'll see I'll be pretty risky here and say one of them will close their doors one of those so I'll put it here in the notes so to keep me honest so, go puff gorilla and or Joker one of those three big ones probably doesn't make it out of 22. [33:19] Okay, so that's 1/2 so this is my third one I realize I'm actually short protection will have to do one on the flyer the Bezos wanted kind of counted in my head but that was early prediction you know the at the end of 21 we had Facebook changes name to metaverse and since they did that you can't throw a rock without reading a thousand articles about the maneuvers. In fact today on Twitter there was a big Walmart video you know kind of showing an metaverse shopping experience mock-up kind of thing that was kind of fun, the I think there's going to be I think there should be a lot of hype and 22 I'm actually kinda already burned out on it and a lot of you know what does metaverse shopping look like and there's going to be lots of excitement and smoke but no fire and no Ray. So I think it's going to be the flash in the pan when we look back on 22 so I think it's going to not a lot of activity there I think it'll be like, you know chat Commerce and social commerce and a lot of these things that had a lot of buzz in their era AI Commerce machine learning Commerce all these things that had huge amount of Buzz and then turned out to not really have substance. [34:37] Okay and then the inverse of that is I think one of the things that there's been a lot of talk about that is going to have substance is live streaming of kind of video live video e-commerce integration so I think that one is going to be more mainstream there's there's a little. Amazon has tried this and failed it's big and Ali Baba I'm I'll qualify this and say in the u.s. too so I'm not trying to be sneaky here and you know, there's not a lot of I've seen some startups trying to get traction here but they're in like supermicro verticals but that's how I things get adopted is you kind of build some habits in these small behaviors and then they can go mainstream so I think we'll look back on 22 when we do our 20:23 show and we will see live streaming has gone mainstream so that is one and then let's see, I may have to come back with another. Jason: [35:35] Yeah I'll let you you can make fun of mine and then you I'll let you cherry pick after hearing my. Scot: [35:41] Okay any reaction to my my for so far. Jason: [35:44] No I so a I should have come to rehearsal because I feel like we're gonna get off the right off the bat with some potential overlap but. I definitely. [36:00] I think we're going to see some way Amazon very seriously competes with Shopify I think it's not going to be the way most most people expect that your your description seems totally plausible is we're about to see I have a, an opinion on some of these ultra-fast delivery services and The Meta versed both of which you touched and then I got to be honest I am nervous about live streaming like I could I definitely am not bearish I could see it going either way a ton of Commerce happens via live stream in China and we're starting to get a lot of Commerce. Video content get consumed in the u.s. what's not working very well at the moment is the buy now button at the end of those videos and so you kind of have, indirect livestream commerce's is already starting to happen in pretty high volume here in the US and a bunch of people are investing in in. Trying to take it that that last click. And I have reasonable confidence that it could work so at the very least I know a lot of retailers and a lot of my clients are going to be trying it pretty pretty heavily this year so we shall see. Scot: [37:15] I came up with my fifth. Jason: [37:17] I knew if I just rambled that I would give you enough room for one. Scot: [37:20] Yeah this one is a risky one but you know our friend Faisal started Fabric and I'm going to predict that that company has so much Buzz they're going to get acquired in this year so that was risky because they're super early stage where is it it'll it'll it'll have to be a big number to take them off the table at this point but I think someone's going to going to, pay that number. Jason: [37:45] Yeah to fun ways that could go I feel like he's pretty – on Shopify so it would be awesome Shopify acquired them but you could also Imagine AWS acquiring them and and making two of your predictions come true. Scot: [37:59] Yeah or or adobe or you know IBM IBM's kind of on the sidelines lately they've got a whole. Jason: [38:07] Yeah yeah they kind of got out of the those software platforms I would be I mean but not to say they couldn't pivot and come back in for sure. Scot: [38:14] Yeah yeah and then let's see I said Adobe I've and Salesforce. Jason: [38:20] Interesting okay well I'm going to jump into mine and again we did not dedupe these I bundled several of yours and made them more negative, so my first prediction is what's not gonna happen and I lumped in a bunch of very trendy things that people are super hyped about and I said I don't think any of these are going to be economically meaningful in 2022 so it's in ft's which I know, are near to your heart than mine I I do believe there's some Niche use cases where in Ft is totally makes sense and I know you play in some of those, those Niche cases but there are so many people that just think crypto in general and nft is in particular are going to be, a huge part of Commerce I don't think they're going to be very economically meaningful and in 2022 even more so I don't think web 3 is going to have any impact I'm starting to get a lot of questions about, how Bigcommerce is going to change because of web three in my answer is it's not, I think the metaverse is going to fail pretty miserably as a Commerce, play and I'm also going to say all of these Venture funded ultra-fast delivery startups are going to fail so that's not to say that. [39:36] Amazon, instacart or even go puff couldn't win but like all these these Sand Hill Road back startups that are delivering in Manhattan I don't think any of them are gonna change consumer Behavior enough to really matter economically in, so that's my Chrome Legend hey all the cool things that talking has like to talk about aren't very important one. Scot: [40:02] Well I don't think that overlaps too much no no I I disagree but we'll see. Jason: [40:09] Knox awesome those are the. Scot: [40:11] What's your specific prediction like there will be less in ft's and 2022 and is in of T volume. Jason: [40:19] Yeah yeah. Scot: [40:20] Let's put that one down oh that's that's the prediction last in a $50 transacted. Jason: [40:26] Well so like I don't so full disclosure I can throw out a number but like I don't know of a credible source for tracking in Ft Revenue dollars. Scot: [40:40] Yeah there's some there's gmv trackers so open sea and is the biggest Market Place than there's like three or four others. Jason: [40:46] Okay I was mostly thinking like the there's there's not going to be meaningful revenue from the US Department of Commerce retail sales data that's enough. Scot: [40:57] Wow that's there it's going to take them 50 years before they can spell it. Jason: [41:02] Well I know they're not going to report it that's what I'm saying but I'm just saying like there's an Amazon Walmart the the top 10 eCommerce sites in the US are not going to have any meaningful revenue from in FTS. Yeah but nobody's going to do anything with webbed three in Commerce and nobody's going to buy anything with a virtual reality headset. Or from gorillas outside of one block. Scot: [41:40] Okay. Jason: [41:42] So I'll try to get less – now a company that we've talked about on the show a couple times that people don't talk about enough and I'm kind of using them as a surrogate for a whole new trend but is the the. Ultra fast fashion brand Chien which is a apparel brand the. The they're estimated to have sold about 10 to 15 billion dollars worth of Apparel in 2021 and I think they're going to exceed 30 billion dollars in apparel sales and 2022 which is going to make them. A top 3 apparel retailer in the US. [42:24] And I said they're kind of a surrogate for a trend this is democratized merchandising so this is, instead of Mickey Drexler deciding what the cool kids should wear in high school instead of easy deciding what the cool kids should wear in high school this is, algorithms watching what the cool kids post that they are wearing in high school on tick-tock, and then making it in two weeks and selling it to all the kids that want to be cool, and so it's kind of the perfect manifestation of what Amazon called hands off the wheel where they stopped having Merchants pick products and instead kind of use data to, to drive their catalog and I think she is gonna continue to have great success there and it's, it's disrupting the fashion industry more than a lot of people in the fashion industry realize but I think, it's going to become extremely evident in 2022 that it's disrupting the apparel business. Scot: [43:23] And then are you are you putting a specific number on it and if so how much is that over last year. Jason: [43:27] Sorry I thought I said it yeah so I think they're going to sell more than 30 billion dollars of Apparel in 2022. Scot: [43:34] What they do in 21. Jason: [43:36] The estimates they're not public but the estimates are between 10 and 15 billion so more than double. Scot: [43:42] Okay all right. Jason: [43:44] Again not trying to sandbag. So third one and I guess I'm going back to my my negative Nelly so one of the hottest trends of 2021 and the prediction I have seen the most people do and I fully expected you to do so I'm, totally bombed is that buy now pay later services are going to continue to explode, and in 2021 by some estimates they grew 30% in their you know wildly adopted, it's the fastest-growing payment type in in e-commerce in 2021 you're starting to see it expand from just e-commerce to in-store purchases as well, and it's moving down Market to you know from from expensive High consideration items to a lot of lower cost more impulse items so by all accounts the future of payments and credit is buy now pay later in my prediction is that it slows down and 2222 I'm not saying it's necessarily going to flop, but I think you're going to see only about 15 percent growth over 20. [44:52] One versus the 30% that they had this year so I think the rate of growth Cuts in half and I think there's a couple reasons behind that, I think the bill is going to come due for a lot of these products and a lot of these consumers are not going to be able to pay for the products they purchase, and I think you're going to start to see a ton of writedowns and the financial reality of renting money to subprime lenders without like significant collateral is going to kind of start to, catch up with some of these companies I think the Credit Agencies are going to start to lean into this more and that's going to take away one of the competitive advantages that they had and I think we might even see some some regulation because like there's some, some very financially responsible companies in the buy now pay later ecosystem but there's also some, some kind of rebranded payday loan players in that space and so I think there's just going to be a lot of erosion of trust and and some- stories that will slow down the rate of growth. Scot: [45:59] Gaap negative or positive on the next. Jason: [46:04] Yeah we're going positive again I'm yeah I'm alternating I'm and I'm going to throw an Amazon one to you I think Amazon opens more than 100 grocery stores in 2022. Not whole food so Amazon Fresh doors, um and that you know again that that would be about three times as many stores as they have ever opened Amazon book stores or five star store so. It's not the thousands of stores that some people have talked about but it's also a much faster pace of brick-and-mortar growth than we've ever seen from Amazon. Scot: [46:41] Yeah that I will be excited to see this one. Jason: [46:46] And you know most of them will be in Chicago so that'll be fun for me. Scot: [46:50] Of the 500 stores they'll be like 75. Jason: [46:54] Yeah exactly I'll be surrounded, yeah so I think that's a super interesting space I've talked about it a bunch it was you know the growth of digital commerce was one of my grocery commerce was one of my big ones and I think it's just the big category of consumer spending that Amazon. Doesn't play meaningfully and Whole Foods is very Niche and I just think it's a moonshot imperative for Amazon to win Grocery and I don't think you can win digital grocery without having brick-and-mortar grocery as well. [47:29] So that I think gives me 4 so my last one, is I think there's going to be a lot of interesting Activity one of the categories of e-commerce I'm most interested in watching in 2022 is Last Mile, there's going to be a lot all kinds of different Evolutions but the specific prediction I'll make is one of these new, um I'll call them FedEx UPS competitors is going to sort of get get acquired or have some meaningful liquidation event and so so there's a couple of startups that are kind of, Next Generation parcel delivery services like vejo index delivery ship IAM is a bunch of X Amazon guys and I'm going to say that, instacart original business model could even slow down and instacart could get acquired, primarily to be a last mile delivery service by someone so so one of those companies gets acquired, as part of the buzz around owning your own Last Mile in 2022. Scot: [48:38] Yep and does that include so there's all these like ship Bob Shapiro those kind of guys your that's not. Jason: [48:45] I think there's going to be a lot of I think they're an interesting space to in most cases they're not actually delivering products they're they're facilitating delivery of products or tracking delivery of products and so I tried to keep this pure to the, guys that have access to trucks and are driving products to people's houses but. Yeah so no I'm not I won't call it a win if it's if those are the only ones that get acquired. Scot: [49:13] And then any other bonus prediction so I kind of had to stretch to get my 5 but anything else you want. Jason: [49:20] So so yeah you know I do all my best thinking on dog walks and so I you know I might thinking about all these cool predictions and I came home with like 40 of them and so I struggled to narrow it down to these five and so then kind of the next class of predictions that just sounded. Too easy in a way but you know last year digital Commerce kind of slowed down a little bit compared to Brick and Mortar Commerce it was a huge year in brick-and-mortar growth. Because e-commerce had grown so fast the year before so I think that that. That Paradox gets inverted again this year so I think we see way faster e-commerce growth than we do brick-and-mortar growth, I think curbside which was a big thing in 2020 and 2021 becomes even bigger thing in 2022, I think you're gonna see a ton of stores redesign their parking lot I noticed H-E-B just opened a new store and as 26 Bays, for curbside pickup so I think those those are the big things in the you know the big macro story that we'll see in 2022. I recognize that less controversial than my official five predictions. Scot: [50:34] Yeah okay cool I think that's a good set of 10 predictions there any anything else you want to just let people marinate on that for little bit. Jason: [50:42] No I if folks strongly agree or disagree I'd love to hear about it on social media and if you have different predictions, throw them our way on Twitter Facebook and we'll be happy to debate them on our next show. Scot: [50:59] Yeah yeah maybe we could introduce some listener predictions as part of this going forward that would be kind of fun it also reminds me we need to we haven't done a deep dive in a while and maybe you know we touched on in ft's web 3 meta those are pretty good topics for deep Dives maybe even buy now pay later so usually we hit a new slow down in the e-commerce world, kind of in that March April May time frame after we get the q1 results so maybe we'll throw some deep Dives in there so that, if those topics are interesting we're happy to kind of go deep on those I guess looking back the live streaming when I don't think we've done a deep dive on that either so those are all areas where between the two of us we have a pretty good bit of domain knowledge that we could make sure that is out there and available if you want to go deeper on one of those topics so let us know think about your preferences on 20-22 content around that type of a topic as well. Jason: [51:56] Yeah I will look forward to all of that. And of course if you did find this show fun at all or you learned anything the best way you could reward us as jump on iTunes and leave us that 2022 five-star review all those reviews you wrote in 2021 don't count anymore so you need to get back on iTunes and leave us up fresh review and feel free to make fun of Scott in the review that's always appreciated. Scot: [52:22] Or Jason's title. Jason: [52:24] One of my many titles. Scot: [52:25] All right thanks everybody. Jason: [52:29] And until next time happy commercing.

EP283 - Year End Review  It's our final show of 2021! We recap the US Dept of Commerce November Advanced Retail Sales Data. We do a deep dive into the retail industries growth from 2019 through November 2021. In those 23 months, the retail industry grew 22%, historically fast growth. There were clear winners and losers. If you want to follow along on with all the data, here is a visual recap of retail growth 2020-2021. (PDF Download). We also highlight the six most important trends of 2021. Amazon fulfillment capacity growth (Amazon and Walmart become shipping companies) Social Media becomes the discovery channel for e-commerce (led by live-streaming) Ultrafast delivery services Amazon invents and starts to scale a grocery store (Amazon Fresh) with just walk out technology Retail Media Networks explode, led by Amazon's $30B in ad sales. Retailers now compete with social media networks for eyeballs Apparel has shifted from designer led to consumer led, as evidenced by the meteoric rise of Shein We're so very grateful to our audience, both for the time you have shared with us, and for generous opinions, feedback, and knowledge that many of you have shared. We wish you all the very best holidays and New Years, and look forward to seeing you in 2022! Episode 283 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:23] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 283 being recorded on Tuesday sept December twenty first twenty Twenty-One I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:39] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott show listeners Jason how are the holidays treating you so far. Jason: [0:46] They are treating me really well it's been super interesting what's going on in our industry and getting ready to take the family to California to see my mom and brother. Scot: [0:59] Very fun California versus Chicago seems like a smart smart choice this time. Jason: [1:04] Yes early and my relationship with my wife we agreed that we would visit her Michigan in-laws and Thanksgiving and my California relatives in December seems weather prudent if nothing else. Scot: [1:16] Yeah smart I like your like you're negotiating strategies so we are recording this here live on December 21st so we are in the very last tail end of holiday 21 and Jason you had some some interesting data that you had parse through that I thought we could start with it's going to be largely kind of the November data but it's kind of the best data we have, until we get into January and see how the holiday played out and then we'll do a quick checkpoint on what you're hearing from clients and then I think both of us wanted to kind of share our big stories for retail and e-commerce for 2021 so why don't you kick us off with some data. Jason: [1:57] That sounds amazing so yeah so the data we are talking about is the US Department of Commerce data we get a an update every month so you know last week we got the, the update that includes November and in general November sales were up sixteen percent from November of twenty twenty so I always coach people that we should look at year-over-year not month over month so pretty healthy growth in 2021 from 2020 if you look at year-to-date so January through November we are up about 18% from 2020 and if you look at e-commerce we were up about 12 percent from November of 2020 so I you know I always put this data out on social media and I got a ton of, interesting responses this year on that data everyone's like hey Jason why are you comparing to November of 2020 like we're in the middle of the pandemic everything was all topsy-turvy like it's like comparing, pandemic 2021 numbers to pain demick 2020 numbers isn't very helpful to me because everything is so confusing. [3:13] And so I kind of took that to heart like you know it is the best kind of comparison we have about how we're doing but I said oh you know the more interesting comparison is maybe we take. One step back and we compare the. The the last two years of data to two years ago so we kind of compare how much growth we've had during the pandemic with what girls look like before the pandemic and I hadn't hadn't really done that in a while and what I found was interesting and in a few cases it surprise me. Scot: [3:46] I feel like we should create a new word for this I'll work on it in the vein of a ship again yeah that's just boring I don't know. Jason: [3:54] Yeah yeah de or. Yeah every CEO in America has learned to say you're over two years ago by the way and for it's super funny for non-gaap metrics in the and in the 10-qs they. Like it's they kept they completely cherry-pick like if the number is good they take versus last year and if it's bad they take versus two years ago. Scot: [4:18] Yeah yeah that's the nice thing you need everything every number needs to be up into the right. Jason: [4:23] My takeaway there is you CEOs are oily. Scot: [4:25] We know we're strategic. Jason: [4:29] Got it potato potahto. Scot: [4:31] Cool what did this year over your year over year over last year review. Jason: [4:37] Yeah so if we say hey from how much has retailgeek grown in 2020 and 2021 as a two-year stack it has grown 22 percent, so you know people talk about like all the struggles and challenges we had during the pandemic but if I see if I got in a time machine and no pandemic just told every retail CEO how would you feel about growing 22% over the next two years, the vast majority of CEOs would have jumped at that and then if you said and our life is going to be totally disrupted by this pandemic. [5:14] I think every retail CEO in America would have said I'd be thrilled to get through the next two years with 22 percent growth so that was interesting and then I said I wonder how that compares historically so I got in the hot tub time machine and I pulled all the data from 1990 through today and I restated every year as its growth versus the previous two years to kind of come up with this standard metric to compare against the 22 percent and 22% is unprecedentedly high it's by far the biggest two-year growth we've had since 1990 there's only a few years that that just tickled 15% so I can 2000 we hit 15 percent and in 1994 we hit 15% but like, most of the. The this last decade we were kind of tickling in the kind of six to eight percent growth so 22 percent growth. On average for the whole retail industry is a huge win and unprecedentedly more growth than we would traditionally get does that surprise you at all. Scot: [6:26] It doesn't sort of make sure I understand it's all retail so it's offline and online in Aggregate and then you can't just divide it by 2 right because there's compounding in there so it's not really two years of 11 it's probably like I don't know 12 in an 8 or something. Jason: [6:41] Yes so you are correct now and. That 20 yes and all of this data it does include compounding the the compounding is an interesting point which will come up in a another piece of data in in just a minute but yeah so this is all like literally looking at the. Aggregate sales for 2019 and the aggregate sales for 2021 and saying how much bigger was 2021 than 2019. Scot: [7:08] Yeah did you run a kegger so in MBA school they would say well you can actually unpack the compounding by look at the compounded annual growth rate. Jason: [7:17] Yes yes I am familiar with the math I did not. Scot: [7:21] Okay it was two years it's not going to be that substantial yeah repeat. Jason: [7:24] No that's the yeah it's right typically like with like a five-year Horizon it makes a lot more sense but yeah it would have been interesting but it just I had to your data so I was just trying to come up with an Apples to Apples. Scot: [7:36] Not feels feels like a wind. Jason: [7:38] Yeah so then I said alright well that's interesting on average retail is a huge win. [7:44] Very obviously there are winners and losers so I said alright well let's look at all the categories that the US Department of Commerce gives us. Based on that 2-year stack and there were you know and who was at the industry average who wildly outperformed the industry average and who underperformed the industry average and there are some things that made total sense to me and we're not surprising and then there were some pretty big surprises in there so, the the category that out of the US Department of Commerce data that grew the fastest was, non store sales which is kind of our e-commerce proxy right and it grew 39 percent so almost twice as fast its total retail that's pretty intuitive you know again you're hearing a lot of. E-commerce growth is slowing. Wagon November as more people went back to stores you know compared to this like you know pandemic impacted 20/20 but when you look at onto your stack, e-commerce is still the fastest growing part of retail at group 39% from 2019 and that certainly didn't surprise me the next two categories sporting goods and building materials, also really didn't surprise me because we kind of talked about them being, the big pandemic winners that like you know people then go to the gym so they bought stuff from Dick's Sporting Goods people didn't go on vacation so they built a new patio with materials from Home Depot and so kind of all the that Services Revenue. [9:14] Shifted into retail and that gave sporting goods and building materials a big a big kiss. Motor Vehicles which at one point people were saying like oh my God that's going to be a horrible category in the pandemic Motor Vehicles actually outperformed the industry average so they grew at 24 percent versus 22 percent for total retail. And then here's where we start getting surprises. Slightly below the industry average was furniture and Home Furnishing so that grew at 21 percent versus the industry average of 22 and if you just asked me to bet I would have said in the same way that building materials and Home Improvement stores. Got extra spending from the pandemic I would have expected furniture stores to get extra spending from the pandemic as well and so it surprised me that they were only at the industry average and the only my only hypothesis is. Did they have more disruptions from supply chain like why. Was it just harder for them to scale up to make more sofas to meet the increased demand and so they, they grew healthy but they didn't grow as healthy as they might have because they they couldn't double their us Workforce to build more couches. Scot: [10:23] The feels right the furniture industry has been here in North Carolina that's our primary one and they're just destroyed by the supply chain they can't there was a series of events that couldn't get phone because of the fire and awesome remember that that seems like a year ago but it actually wasn't go to the summer and then with this quote-unquote Supply pain they haven't been able to get the other inputs like anything fabric while that stuff made in China and shipped over here and sitting on a boat somewhere. Jason: [10:50] Yeah and I feel like it's a double whammy for them because it's harder than ever to make stuff but there's actually they could sell more than ever before if they could make it so it's like, it almost feels worse than knowing there's demand that you can't meet. Scot: [11:01] Yeah it's painful. Jason: [11:03] Yeah so then general merchandise grew at 16 percent versus of retail 22 percent and then the one that surprised me most that I talk about a lot is grocery grew at 16 percent versus the industry average of 22 percent and I would have said man a ton of spending shifted from restaurants to grocery stores they were another pandemic winner and so I'll be honest I don't have a perfect hypothesis for why. Again sixteen percent is Healthy Growth and by historical standards it's better than any two-year period since 1990 so I don't want to say oh you know they had a rough time they had a good time but surprising that they were below the industry average to me a little bit. You have any great Insight that I didn't think of on why that would be. Scot: [11:52] I don't maybe it's like a mix thing underneath the hood like the e-commerce grew so much doesn't it like well I'll be in this category are rules so if. Jason: [12:02] Imperfect yes so you are right like one of the wrinkles in all of this is. The way the US Department of Commerce treats e-commerce as another category which is unfortunate right because you know when someone shifts from buying a exercise bike in a Dick Sporting Good to buying a dick exercise bike from Dick's Sporting Goods.com. The sale leaves the sporting good category in enters the non-store category and so that's. That's not really Apples to Apples and then of course this is all done with surveys that are in perfectly filled out by human beings and so how different retailers respond to that survey is also inconsistent so you got it. This data is super helpful directionally but you definitely don't want to get too wrapped around the axle of the minutiae of the data because it's just an imperfect methodology. [12:52] And so then the the categories they did the worst, do make sense with one outlier for a couple hours for me so gasoline only grew at 14%, you know again make sense to me that they you know underperformed when people aren't commuting to work surprising 14% sales are still pretty good growth clothing is near the bottom at 12% growth so again clothing over the last two years did not shrink they still grew at 12% which might have been their average rate of growth I should do that waiters pulled just the category growth over the last 30 years. But compared all these other categories obviously closing was was poor and the Very lowest category is restaurants and bars which still grew six percent so that all makes sense but then there were two two categories in the cellar that I would have expected to do better health and personal care grew at 11% and Electronics and Appliances grew at seven percent so those are both pretty far under the industry average and you know those are two categories. They had some complication they had pros and cons you know within that category but by and large I guess I was surprised to see them so well. Scot: [14:06] Yet Health and Beauty one because Aaron was zooming like the makeup sales shot way up so it's got to be a you know it was e-commerce. Jason: [14:15] Lipstick sales actually went way down because of the Mask but mascara and skincare went way up it's so funny bye. Um so, then I just did one other sanity check so you know people like a couple people a couple of Industry analysts even like responded to my data and said yeah just don't believe the numbers and I'm like just some understanding you you're saying you don't believe the US Department of Commerce numbers not like I didn't make any of these numbers upright bike. [14:45] And and the US Department of Commerce data is imperfect I would argue it's. The best we have access to and it's it's a bunch of you know PhD in statistics that have you know the force of law to you know to enforce compliance with their survey so I it's better than any other survey out there for whatever that's worth but so I thought how can I do a chance sanity check on this data and I'm like oh all the public retailers are required to report their growth every quarter so we could try to create a year over two year growth for all of these public retailers and compare it to the industry data and some of these public retailers are in a particular category so you can you know pretty safely assume all their sales are in that category so you could kind of use that as a sanity check so I pulled I don't know I guess it's about 25 companies and I converted their quarterly growth into a two-year stack and here I will confess I took a shortcut and if there's any mathematicians that want to help me solve this problem I will toy do it these. Draws numbers are not compounded growth so the problem is we don't have annual growth rates from the Retailer's we have quarterly growth rate so basically you have to. Aggregate for quarters of growth and then. [16:11] Calculate it over two years and so I took a lazy shortcut and I just added their. 20 growth to their 2021 growth so we have basically seven quarters of growth for most of these retailers and it's it's what they call a two-year stack which means growth from 2019 plus 2020 and while the math is not right there by the way right because of. Like the compounding problem of your 2020 growth include your you know growth over 2019. This is how most retailers reported in their earnings so when they talk about to your growth for these non-gaap measures where they try to put themselves in the best light and they report their two year growth they're almost never talking about a compounded number like if you read the footnote. They're they're adding the growth from those two years so this is how they're doing the math in most cases for whatever that's worth but so that's way more precursor than we need the retailer that grew the public retailer the grew the most over the last two years total shocker to me I would not have expected in a million years is Burlington Coat Factory. That Drew 85% and to put that in perspective, they sell apparel which did not do very well in the pandemic and they turned off their website their e-commerce site the month before the pandemic. So they didn't sell any a long line. Scot: [17:34] They're not really opening a lot of stores either. Jason: [17:36] No I mean they may have opened a couple stores over the whole two years but like this is mostly comp sales growth so it actually kind of, factors out new store. Scot: [17:46] Okay so it's cops okay. Jason: [17:47] Yeah this is these numbers that ye are based on currency adjusted comp sales just in the u.s. wherever possible so so Burlington's a total outliner congratulations to them surprising to me Amazon is was the second fastest grower and all public retail at 61 percent over two years which. Doesn't surprise me that super impressive but you'd expect to see them near the top of this list then you see Dick's Sporting Goods at 57 percent and again, like from from the industry data Sporting Goods was the second fastest growing category behind e-commerce so Amazon as a proxy for e-commerce and dicks is approximately for sporting goods makes total sense but then things start getting interesting the next fastest grower was Ulta which is personal care at 36 percent so they grew much better than did the. The personal care category now they're less than half the personal care category the slightly bigger version of them would be Sephora but Sephora is actually owned. Buy a house of Brands and so it's harder to get their data. [19:01] Bed Bath & Beyond group 35% which is impressive Target group 34 percent, Home Depot which again was in one of these these outperforming categories grew 33% was group 28% by comparison Best Buy grew 29% in this it doesn't surprise me the best bike route 29 percent but this is. Makes that the fact that Electronics was one of the slowest growing categories at 7% make even less percent make even less sense I guess it's it's hard to imagine how. Electronics only grew seven percent over the last two years when you know everyone bought all this extra equipment for homeschooling and home entertainment and then with Best Buy growing 29 percent it's even harder to imagine. Scot: [19:53] Yeah maybe in a perfect world you could then split like something like that into store non-store store / e-commerce and maybe that would tell the story. Jason: [20:00] Yeah yeah again that's like one of the few the, my few answers to to a number of these anomalies and then I know this is like all these numbers in a podcast sock but like then you start getting into like Abercrombie & Fitch 28% Costco 26 percent, Cole's Nordstrom's Walmart grew at 21% which again for you know a huge company, the fortune one company to grow at the industry average is pretty good Nike grew at 20%. T.j. Maxx at 15% and the the bottom three. A surprise into not surprises so the second worse and third two words were Dollar Tree in Dollar General at 10% growth which is kind of surprising. You know consumers were kind of flush with cash with all the extra economic stimulus they weren't really slowing down their spending and so like you know maybe it wasn't a great season for the value shoppers but a lot of the news was about how these dollar stores were opening tons of stores and we're really thriving so interesting that they both only Drew. 10% and then the the worst performing public company on this was Macy's which grew six percent over the two years not totally surprising. Scot: [21:18] Isn't that the one that Prophet G said was going to crush. Jason: [21:24] Be there be there the future of retailers Macy's not Amazon yeah this chart unfortunately yeah contradicts that prediction so we'll have to wait and see are you Scott Galloway fans you just hang on hang on to your stick to your guns. Scot: [21:38] Good luck with that. Jason: [21:41] Yeah so that's my the rabbit hole that the stupid November numbers took me down so as you can imagine none of my clients got any deliverables in November. Scot: [21:52] When people tell you they don't believe the data what are they reacting to. Jason: [21:57] I think there's a couple categories there are people that are like hey it's the the month-over-month is interesting but like. Who cares right because these are all anomalous months and that's why I went for this two-year stack and and so. My point was I think like when people are saying hey I don't I don't believe the data I actually don't think they meant they don't believe that this is the data that the US Department of Commerce reported I think they're both saying in some cases, I don't think the US Department of Commerce can count very well and what they mostly hang their hat on is is the non store sales not being right and that's fair right like when someone at Best Buy fills out a survey the US Department of Commerce would like them to put their e-commerce sales in one box and their store sales in another box. [22:47] And do they do that I don't know right and does every retailer do that. Properly and consistently I can tell you that the person assigned to fill out the surveys is generally not the most senior accountant at the it's usually not the CFO. Um so so that is imperfect and then what I think they're saying more is. Maybe don't make all your future plans based on like this snapshot of the world because you know we are looking at a unique set of circumstances that resulted in this data right so if you mistakenly thought my takeaway was retail is better than ever and you know everybody should double down because you know retailers is the most thriving industry in the world 22 percent growth is amazing and it's going to continue forever. [23:36] Yeah no that's not what I'm saying I'm just saying that like it's interesting there were positive and negative impacts on all these businesses as a result of the pandemic but on the aggregate. The impact was disproportionately positive and I don't think that that is sustainable right like I you know I think we will hope to drop down to the regular the sort of pre-pandemic growth levels and potentially. We pulled some growth forward and we might even see some more lean years because we you know absorb so much growth this time. Scot: [24:10] This a long way of you saying you now agree with the the Goldman Sachs chart that showed five years of acceleration. Jason: [24:15] No no I think that still is pretty clear and they were primarily talking about e-commerce which definitely didn't happen. Scot: [24:23] Checking. Jason: [24:25] So that's my my deep dive into data and if there's there can't be anything more fun than listening to a podcast about a bunch of dudes being a bunch of numbers so I will I'll do two things I'll try to put some of this data in the show notes but what I'll do is I'll put a link in the show notes to download some charts with this data in it. Scot: [24:46] Very cool I actually like you spewing data so maybe I'm just an audience of one. Jason: [24:53] You may be in a liar. Scot: [24:56] So what are you seeing so that kind of gets us through November what are you seeing here in December I poked around on the usual spots for the Adobe and the sales force and a couple others and it's really weird they've been kind of quiet since since kind of the Cyber week what what are you hearing from your clients. Jason: [25:17] Yeah so I don't know like there's not good data that's already reporting December sales for holiday but so anecdotally talking to a bunch of clients and talking to some of these companies that do have internal data. December is looking like a good month right and so the. My kind of aggregate estimate is holiday for 2021 is going to end up being about. Nine percent bigger than holiday 2020 and again you say well as nine percent good or bad by historical standards it's pretty darn good most most years we get about a holiday grows less than the rest of the year because there's so much extra volume in it so most years we get about five percent growth in holiday in 2019 we got four percent growth 9% is a big number and last year was a pretty big growth year and so. Um you know also around nine percent so nine percent on top of 9% is a. Pretty big deal I have seen some estimates that think it'll grow even more than nine percent this year to put that in perspective the last time before last year there grew nine percent would have been like 1999 so so not only do we have great growth over two years we do have great holiday growth one huge caveat. [26:43] The trend up until about a week ago was, that more people were returning to the store store traffic was going up we were seeing kind of pre-pandemic shopping behaviors and e-commerce was still a big deal bigger than ever before but the rate of growth was swelling because, there was so much pent-up demand and go to stores lots of people were planning on getting together with their family like there was a funny Walmart stat about you know how much bigger the turkeys were that got sold this year than last year because people were, we're entertaining a lot more so, unfortunately in kind of real-time chats with most of my clients in the last week we have seen foot traffic to stores dramatically curtail and it feels like. We're very quickly getting a lot of negative Media news around and I say media but I guess it's based on the data about Omicron and the hypothesis is there either, Omicron has people scared and so they're not going to stores or a second hypothesis is everyone desperately wants to have their family gathering so they're being extra cautious leading up to Christmas but in either case, we're seeing this last-minute pivot to e-commerce and that has some impacts like the shipping companies that actually been doing. [28:04] Much better job this year than last year on keeping up with ship again in but if suddenly everyone you know runs towards e-commerce these last two weeks that could really put. [28:15] Shipping in Jeopardy in a in a really vulnerable time when they have a lot of Labor challenges so yeah I don't know it's kind of a Debbie Downer bit of news in this whole thing. Scot: [28:26] Yeah yeah I'm a crime that has a it's going to put next year kind of up into a question mark of what happens is and then. The thing that's really frustrating trying to operate a business during this time frame is the bookmarks of good and bad are so wide that. Dirty you have no idea but you drive a truck through and right there 180 degrees so you read one new source it's like oh it's super mild and it's almost going to act like its own vaccine then you see another source and it's like we're all gonna die. Somewhere hopefully we're somewhere in the middle there. Jason: [28:58] Amen Ya Know It's Tricky yeah and kind of evaluating all these data sources that's like the new the new societal challenge right. Scot: [29:09] It really is. Jason: [29:12] So I'm wondering so that's that's kind of my holiday snapshot some good news and some bad news in there I wanted to take a couple minutes on this podcast because I think this is going to be our last show of the year to kind of zoom out from the minutiae and just kind of think about the year in totality and kind of, don't know you know highlight what we think are the big things that happened in our industry this year that might impact us going forward how do you feel about that. Scot: [29:39] Let's do it you want to go first. Jason: [29:41] I mostly wanted you to go first because I thought I would surprise you and make you get bet answers while I thought about it. Scot: [29:48] Okay I'll go first so so I'm going to try to limit it to three because we. Yeah we could go on for for a long time here so I think the highlights of this year for me, it would be a Jason and Scot show if we didn't think a little bit about Amazon the. Build out of Amazon's shipping infrastructure and I feel like we say this every year but it's accelerating and there's some really good data we want to have a guest on that's publishing some data on this just Amazon has built more capacity in the last two years than they had in the last 10 so they've used the pandemic as a you know the response to it and they've gotten kind of cover I guess you could say is to really. 10x down on fulfillment infrastructure where where you get the most feeling of that is that the last mile which is this DS p– program that they've just really scaled up massively. This touches my my day job because it's Biffy we'd service a lot of these folks and they're just they're everywhere and, you know it used to be they would kind of work out a fulfillment systems then they built these fulfillment centers now they've got these see the last word of station what are they call them. [31:02] Delivery stations that have a whole new nomenclature where they now are have these forward-deployed areas where the dsps are almost housed and Aggregates you'll go to these places and it's pretty well that I've seen several of them now and they'll be like 20 dsps operating out of there these little micro businesses and you know just. [31:22] Prime Vans as far as I can see. Where is the stat that I think is kind of the most interesting is the Amazon did disclose that they plan to ship more than then FedEx this year and then I think they said in the next couple of years they'll exceed the USPS as far as package delivery it doesn't surprise me just given the scale that they are throwing at this thing. For example you can't buy a van today because the Amazon is just pretty ordered all the vans so it's pretty fascinating the scale they've done there. The thing that in our will do our annual predictions but I've been annually predicting that they would compete more directly with FedEx and UPS by offering just package delivery to anybody I just feels like we're a lot closer to that but I say that every year so we'll see, the other surprise for me is the explosion of this 15-minute grocery delivery world the most people have probably their first experience this or the first company heard was go puff and it wasn't really a 15-minute thing it was just kind of faster it was almost hours then you had instacart really scale up and then what's happened is the service level on these things it's got lower to the point where they're all trying to get you something in 15 minutes. It's a smaller number of skus than you would get with like Amazon's 300 million skus available so it's typically going to be. [32:43] You know you probably have a cool word for it but it's like snacks and oh my gosh I'm out of a soda I need or ice cream things that you kind of have an urgent hankering for and are willing to pay to scratch that itch a little bit more. On the shipping and handling fees and those kinds of things these are kinds of things when I talk to people they're like yeah that little the economics will never work in the be no one will ever use it and then everyone's always surprised because you can never underestimate the convenience or any consumer that when you give them the choice to do something with convenience they will, they will do it and they will order things you would never have thought about. I remember when Amazon rolled out Prime now they were shocked that the toilet paper and personal products were such a high considered item and it's just you know. People people don't plan ahead and they run out of stuff and they want it right then and there willing to pay extra for it so that one's pretty interesting and you track this probably even better I do Amazon's going after this one and then there's like, 10 startups in there that are have all raised, billions of dollars go puff just announcer one and a half billion dollar extension of their last round by layering on some debt so there's one called like gorillas or gorillas and. [33:55] Tons of these things out there but Amazon scaling it up too so it's gonna be interesting to see if any of these guys can make Headway against Amazon or Famas on will just crush them. [34:05] And then the last one is live-streaming this one sputtering in the US, every data point outside the US indicates it's a thing and I do think this one's going to translate from I've seen it I've seen data that shows that as a has expanded out of China and that's kind of where maybe a year ago we were talking about it largely on Alibaba platform. But now I think it's there's European startups I'm starting to see some categories in the US where this is interesting I followed the collectible category and there's a couple of the hot companies are they do these live streams where they will do. Unboxings so they will they will buy a pack of cards from like the 80s and then they will open them live and and see what's in there and and you know, it's kind of riveting if you're if you're into that and you're like I wonder you know there's a one in 100 chance that this has a Michael Jordan rookie card or something and they pull that the column poles that can be fascinating so there's a lot of. Kind of very specific category activity going there that I think I think a lot of us thought okay Amazon's and do this Amazon is tried and it's been pretty terrible but I think it's going to come from these really niche of Articles at first and they're going to figure it out and then you'll see it get more more momentum up into the broader retailers so those are those are my three. Jason: [35:27] Wow those are three good ones I feel like you stole my three I'm just kidding um no but I totally agree with all those I do think like we've actually seen Amazon launch some. Selling of shipping services and I've seen Stan said they're going to deliver 90% of their own packages this holiday so like I think that definitely is a thing even Walmart is now, selling shipping services to other people including Home Depot so that's totally interesting Trend hundred percent agree on the live streaming like I kind of call it the D bundling of shopping and you know we have all these e-commerce sites that are good at buying things but we're not very good at product Discovery and it seems like social and video or where a lot of the, the new product discoveries coming from and then that that ultra-fast delivery for filling orders to give you all the words you are asking about the that that's a huge thing and if you think about you know how much retailers are struggling with with grocery profitability like it's a double whammy that wow they're trying to figure out how to solve for profitability the consumers moving to this even you know inherently less profitable order so it's going to be that that's going to be an interesting disruption of the industry so if I were to add 3 to that. I do think just the whole pandemic. [36:41] Acceleration of great digital grocery like is when I talk about a lot and I still think that that is a huge thing like all those predictions about how much the pandemic was accelerating e-commerce for probably wrong but grocery delivery Ecommerce probably did get accelerated five years and to me maybe you know what will ultimately end up being one of the most important things that happened during the pandemic is Amazon invented a new grocery store right this Amazon Fresh concept and it's starting to scale there's more than 30 of them now they have just walk out technology in them which I would have bet against them having this quickly and there are there are lots of investigative journalists that have found. Some interesting real estate footprints that would imply that it's going to scale their that there's a business plan footing out here that had like 300 of these in the UK which is a small island um I think we could look back five years from now and see Amazon is a very meaningful brick-and-mortar grocer and and I think 20:21 is the year it it happened without us totally acknowledging it so I think Jay W groceries an interesting Evolution one that I end up talking about a lot with my clients also driven by Amazon is retail media networks right so you know Amazon, is that a run right now of about 30 billion dollars in ads it's probably the most profitable business Amazon has I think this this. [38:08] Battle for eyeballs between retailers and traditional digital platforms is super interesting and I think you know you set the layer who is. One of the the. The key guys at Amazon media like we had him on the show when he moved to Fresh Direct and he's now running Walmart Connect Four for Walmart so you're seeing the Retailer's hire these like credible media sales people and I think that's a. [38:37] A going forward a significant part of every retailers plan is how to be their own media Network how to get eyeballs and how to monetize those eyeballs and that's a new new skill for a retailer so I think that's a big deal and then the last one I'm gonna throw out, is one that I am surprised doesn't get talked about more but it's the apparel retailer she in and I think they are super interesting they've had phenomenal success they're probably globally the largest apparel reseller on the planet right now and their their annual revenues are more than than H&M and Zara combined so so remarkable. [39:18] Story of fast acceleration but the bigger story here is, to me Sheehan is very representative of the democratization of apparel that like for the longest time we expected Mickey Drexler or Versace or Yeezy to tell us like what was cool to wear and then we waited until we can buy those clothes and we bought them and I just I think that model is totally dead now I think the apparel that sells best the stuff that she and sells the stuff that target cells the stuff that Stitch fix cells is frankly based on customer data it's watching customers finding out what they like and then making it really fast and so Sheehan isn't isn't fashion driven by a stylist It's Fashion driven by Tick-Tock right and an Instagram and I think that's a, a lot of apparel companies haven't gotten the memo yet that the consumer is now squarely in charge of these fashion trends. Scot: [40:18] Yeah saw an article about these guys were this this one lady she did this Argyle Sweater outfit and. It was on Instagram it got some viral love they took that and it created a hole the outfit they had copied it or I guess fast fashion and I don't know how the how the IP Works in this world but they had replicated it and they I think they even used her picture which I think was with articles about that she didn't really you know, realize that that effectively shows open sourcing this thing to the world and then it became a top seller for them like in 60 days it was insane how fast that they identified the trend and get the. The product out there it was like you know NASCAR fashion or something. Jason: [41:03] Yeah it's crazy if you think about like the fashion traditionally worked like. Dudes would show up in Paris at the Fashion Show and show these cool Styles and then everyone would steal those Styles and send them an effector he's and two years later those fact those Fashions would be available at Neiman Marcus. Two years later and in so the genius of Gap was that they got those Fashions to the mall, 18 months later instead of two years later and the the disruption of H&M and Zara was that they got them to the mall six months later instead of 18 months later right. She and sees that woman in the crop-top Argyle Sweater and they have they have that fashion available in a week and here's what super interesting they don't make a million of them and hope they sell which is what all those other retailers had to do, they make 12 of them and if those 12 sell in 8 seconds versus 20 seconds then they make thousands of them. Right and so it's really data-driven real-time a/b testing on apparel trans at a speed that that these kind of traditional apparel Brands can't even imagine. Scot: [42:13] That's because they have the factory right there that they're able to do that or like to have some. Jason: [42:17] Yeah and they. In Shane's case they don't own the factories they have a net like that it's a gig worker economy for factories right like so in the same way that boober recruits a bunch of Uber drivers she and recruits a bunch of factories that they then go to and say hey we've got some some ideas for some new models and find one of those factories that accepts the order and makes the the stuff and so in sometimes there's our Factory driven ideas sometimes there she and driven ideas but but yeah that's that's the model and you know there is a Dark Side to this I got you know a lot of its there's a lot of questions about the labor standards and practices at a bunch of these factories and of course there's. You know a lot of the stuff that gets bought on Shion is super cheap and gets worn once and so it's a ecological disaster I would argue the industry it's disrupting is also. Kind of a you know it has a lot of dark sides and and is not very sustainable so I like I'm not sure she and improves on on any of those problems but from a pure consumer demand standpoint, I don't think we're ever going back to you know these like anointed tastemakers that like decide what we're all going to wear for the next year. Scot: [43:32] Yet clearly clearly that model is sailed having. Jason: [43:36] Indeed well listen Scott I know we both have to run but that is probably a great place to wrap up our final show of 20:21 I need to take some downtime not to see my family or anything like that but in early January we always like to record the forecasts show and hit traditionally you crush me and so I feel like I need to spend a lot more time thinking about my forecast before the forecast show comes up. Scot: [44:07] Yeah challenge accepted I will also be thinking about this in a background processes I'm enjoying the holiday I think this is a good time to thank our listeners you know we've you know we've seen our listenership grow pretty steadily over the years and we really appreciate everyone giving us time to your day to talk about the topics we talk about and we get a lot of great feedback and really engaged set of listeners and we really appreciate you listening and if you want to share your appreciation one of the ways you can do that is through a five star rating so fire up your favorite podcast listening technology and if you would leave us a five starters we that would be the perfect holiday gift for us. Jason: [44:47] Yeah that's exact five stars is exactly my size to Scott. Scot: [44:50] How about that. Jason: [44:53] Awesome well most of can't appreciate enough the listeners for spending this time with us every week this is a lot of fun for us to do and I learned so much from the the chats I have with folks after they listen to the podcast so I'm that is one of the things I'm super grateful for. Scot: [45:10] Everyone have a great holiday Jason you how enjoy your trip to California. Jason: [45:14] Thank you you have a wonderful holiday as well and until next time happy commercing!  

A legend in the world of retail, Mickey Drexler is a former Fortune 500 CEO who led and founded several of America's best-known clothing companies. Mickey was the CEO of Gap and J. Crew and is the founder of Old Navy and Madewell. Now the CEO of Alex Mill, Mickey joins Adam to share his journey and best lessons learned along the way. Mickey and Adam cover a wide range of topics: personal and professional development; mentorship; leadership; intrapreneurship; branding; retailing; and much more.

In this episode, host Geoffrey Zakarian speaks with retail executive Mickey Drexler. The two longtime friends share reflections on what it takes to build an ambitious career from the ground up, as well as what makes for successful customer interactions and company leadership.  Learn more about Mickey Drexler's clothing company, Alex Mill, on its website: https://www.alexmill.com For more information on "Four Courses With Geoffrey Zakarian" follow Geoffrey on Instagram here: https://www.instagram.com/geoffreyzakarian" Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

EP275 - Mickey Drexler on DTC Mickey Drexler is the former CEO of Ann Taylor, The Gap, J. Crew, and is a former board member of Apple and Warby Parker. He is currently the CEO of Alex Mill, a digitally native vertical brand, founded by his son Alex Drexler. He has been dubbed the “Merchant Prince” for his successful turn around of Ann Taylor, and his dramatic transformation of The Gap. In this broad ranging interview, we cover his distinguished career, his opinion about the recent direct to consumer trends, and much more. The interview is full of juicy tidbits including: Getting kicked out of a Levi's meeting after turning The Gap into a vertical integrated brand with its' own label. His efforts to sell J. Crew to Amazon. He turned down Steve Jobs first request to serve on the Apple Board of Directors, and how he later helped Steve and Ron design the Apple retail store. Steve Jobs desire to be a direct to consumer brand. The pros and cons of intuition versus data to select merchandise. His cameo on Breaking Bad. How Old Navy was partially inspired by Targets early private label efforts. And much more Episode 275 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Wednesday September 8th, 2021. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 275 being recorded on Wednesday September 8th 2021 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:39] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason and Scot show listeners. Jason last week we did a deep dive into the Warby Parker and all boobs s-1 filings which was a lot of fun and we got a lot of really good conversation out there with listeners talking about digitally native vertical Brands and we thought you know who could we bring on that keep this conversation going who has experience with wholesale Brands retailers in a vertically integrated d2c brand I'm pretty sure there's only one person in our industry that checks all those boxes and it is industry luminary Mickey Drexler we are very excited to have Mickey on the show Welcome Mickey. Mickey: [1:19] Thank you for having me and I'm excited to be here. Jason: [1:23] Oh my gosh Mickey we are we are thrilled to chat with you I'm eager to get into all the juicy topics going on in the industry and kind of cover your background but we have to start with the most important thing first and you may not know this Mickey but Scott as very successful in the e-commerce industry and he's invested a lot of his earnings from that industry into the car wash industry and. The reason I bring this up is because you you have famously been on the TV Show Breaking Bad. And I think that Scott is basically the plot for Breaking Bad is that. Scot: [2:05] Yeah I'm sitting on pallets of cash right now. Mickey: [2:08] One of the highlights of my life nine takes but it was really a lot of fun and I love that show. Scot: [2:17] It is a it is a great one. Jason: [2:19] One of the best shows on TV. Yeah so yeah we could probably do a whole show about breaking bad which I'm going to resist the temptation so, Mickey normally we start up the show by letting the guest kind of tell us a little bit about their background that could be tricky in your case because a lot of us orders probably know some of the highlights of your background and your backgrounds amazing but like when you meet someone that doesn't know you like how do you describe your career. Mickey: [2:50] Well I say I'm a retailer and I leave it at that, no reason to go further sometimes people after the fact say gee I didn't know you are who you are and cetera but if they want to know then maybe answer some specific questions, but I don't give them my resume. Jason: [3:16] Nice well for the sake of our listeners I am going to break it down a little bit although I appreciate the the humility of it and you you tell me if I have a ride but like you grew up in the Northeast and and started your career in the apparel industry so you work for a bunch of storied apparel retailers Abrams and Strauss Macy's Bloomingdale's and if I ever write your first big job that I don't think that many people remember is you were the CEO at Ann Taylor. Mickey: [3:51] Yes by the way the Northeast means the Bronx to move is that was very special in my life so that's who I grew up. And my first after the three I had joined say Bloomingdale's then briefly Macy's, Then I then I decided I did not want to work in the department store business anymore and I was fortunate enough to, become CEO banjo which is a tiny company losing a lot of money owned by a larger company that happened on Brooks Brothers and probably never heard of the other companies who spoke to March around anymore, and I did that for four years and we were then taken over by big bureaucratic department store, and I decided I was never more disappointed at that point in my life I was a pretty young guy, and I wanted to leave because they didn't appreciate the business we were in it was all about bureaucracy was Alex Stewart. Who then eventually like to play towards I'm not sure who they bought but so I left I left a mess a mess I left it in Taylor. And moved to Gap in San Francisco. Jason: [5:14] Yep and then for other young kids listening to the podcast Gap is going to sound like this famous iconic brand but when you joined in the late 80s um they haven't may be achieved all of their success yet and so like, frankly you you are traded in for being that the CEO that led this, enormous expansion and growth both financially and in terms of popular awareness of the Gap and I want to say you, you watched a couple of the Gap Brands like Old Navy and Gap Kids and somewhat relevant to the conversations we have on this show a lot I think you made a pretty significant decision to take Gap from being a wholesaler that sold a fair amount of other people's Goods to a vertically integrated brand that primarily focused on making your own goods and selling them direct to Consumers through your stores do I have that right. Mickey: [6:09] Yeah yeah correct I joined Gap you don't mind if I correct details I join Gap, at the end of 1983, which is then it started as a hundred percent Levi's company they only bought from Levi's and then when I got there was about one-third of their business was Levi's, and long story short, I learned in my retail life than especially having worked alongside Brooks Brothers which was at the beginning of the decline Franklin, in the mid-80s but they were they own their label and they didn't sell wholesale them, and they did not have to worry about competitors etc etc and going on sale. [7:05] They also with the highest profit company in a relatively small conglomerate of retailers and the reason was their margins were very high. Because again they weren't dealing with competitive sales my department store experience was the opposite, if you're in buying wholesale someone else will put the goods on sale and of course today you know 30 years later plus it's the standard. [7:35] And so I decided when I got to Ann Taylor. [7:39] To own our own label over time I didn't want to deal with competitors who have the same Goods as we did and we did, to consumer or whatever you call it today and that was in 1980 1980, 1970 actually 74 5 trans legally 1980 exactly I joined them in 1980 so when I hear about direct-to-consumer today being the new heart area, it's been there has been a number of your few of us who did it, and through a profit point of view it was the only way I wanted to go not want to buy wholesale we, leave ours ironically after nearer to kick this out because they said we were copying them I'll never forget the lunch was a long boring lunch in San Francisco, and I said after I said they should have told us that right at the beginning so we didn't have to go through this long boring lunch when they when they then said would not sell you anymore well frankly I didn't really care and when you have news like that, you figure it out better than you don't have these like, so we stopped being buying wholesale from Levi's and great brand virus they were no hugely monstrous plan, and we did it on their own but that was fine and that's how it began. Jason: [9:08] That's amazing and I'm totally with you it's I talked to all these young entrepreneurs that just started a new direct to Consumer brand and many of them are under the misguided impression that it's a new business model that they just invented. Mickey: [9:21] I know well there's a few of us then and now there are many many of us, but it is what it was it was not where you could build a business and wake up in the morning and control, your inventory and your prices when I joined the apple board in, I think years later in 1999 Steve Jobs basically felt that's what he wanted to do with apple that was his first year there. And he wanted to go direct and of course she did continue doing business with Walmart and Target and all that but he became. Direct, probably the greatest retailer ever and but you know it's a standard today and there's nothing new about it in fact it's old and it is what it is. Jason: [10:18] Yeah no I tease people that the very first merchants of all times I you know made their own rugs and sold them direct to Consumer so that's that was the first Model like wholesale is the newer the newer model. And so I do so then the next chapter is going to be J.Crew and we're going to go back and talk about some of the interesting issues that you confronted in some of these places but I do want to just highlight, I assume you still follow the Gap the, I would check out because it seems like you took them predominantly Direct in a lot of their news lately I don't know you fought it but they have a partnership with Walmart for their home goods and I just saw something today that they announced that they're going to distribute Athleta which is there they're their work out a pair of brand on this doing really well through REI so it's almost like they're it's interesting that they're now adding some wholesale back to their mix. Mickey: [11:13] Yep well each company is entitled to you know they all have a point of view they have a vision and I think that's what there is is can argue with it. Jason: [11:24] Yeah no and obviously pros and cons to all of these so then you left the Gap was it around 2000 2002 something like that. Mickey: [11:33] Yes I think I left in I think 2001 yeah yeah they say I think I left in 2001, in fact September 26 to be exact. 2001 and I started at J.Crew who's counting January I think 25th or something in 2002. Jason: [11:58] Awesome and what was the circumstances that J.Crew when you started. Mickey: [12:03] Well it was a mess a complete mess by the way I know you mentioned this but I started Old Navy I do it you probably know that story right. Jason: [12:16] No no tell us. Mickey: [12:18] Well it's an interesting story there's an article in the New York Times page 4 5. In terms of some some things I never forgot that like that and I read about Target Corporation then known as they Hudson starting a company to copy the gap. And what do you do when someone wants to copy you get emotional you get crazy and then you fly to Minneapolis to the Mall of America and say okay I want to see what it looks like. And I walked in on you say probably four minutes and I said this is way way off so I was relieved, because to me everyone would sewing machine is your competitor potential, I walked out and said you know is a big research company you know they I know they do a lot of research very successful and today more than ever, stopping Chicago on the way back to San Francisco I visited. Two stores demographics would be a price point below where Gap trailer very few me we were very much. [13:29] Not expecting, and I spoke to the store managers which you have to do in this world today you speak to who deals with customers it's like I've always done that it's my rule in any case they taught me a lot of lessons, Gap was too expensive for this area things are always on sale and I knew that I pick those tubes that low-margin stores, long story short got flew to San Francisco thinking about that, check the jeans Business 80 percent of genes in America than was sold 25 years ago sold below $30 a hundred percent of our genes are above 30 dollars, so I say this is not this is not a stupid idea, for them because we are considered a little more expensive I gave 10 of our Associates, then two hundred dollars each I assign. Them to shop certain categories: Target Walmart then you came on versions and come back. [14:39] Let's discuss it in one week they all came back bottom line is, they care about product they carry about price they couldn't care less if it ended 99 Cents 87 cents as Walmart used to do, etcetera and and right after that meeting I just said we're going to do it we're going to open up, our version of it was called everyday hero, and a few people from Jenny mean who worked at Marvin's was running for the gap, Jeff Eiffel we moved over we started with a small group to do what was then had no name. [15:23] And Don Fisher was always you know he was always pretty open about entrepreneurial stuff and I said was starting his company we didn't have a name long story short, I couldn't come up with the name I was in Paris going to the airport and I see a bar on Rue Saint Germain called Old Navy. And I said to Maggie who was with me marketing I think what a great name for a company, registered the next day in America no one had it and that was the name now of course my board didn't really like name you know but to me your name your kids you're not going to have a negotiation over what you name them, we have a negotiation I hard to naming companies that have with horrible names and later on I'll tell you how we got the Old Navy from olden days, and that was the beginning first store open whole Gap Warehouse only had three names and I said, we do this and we have no gaps in five years so then the next door is called Old Navy and that's how we started today it's about probably 80 and 90% of the earnings of the Gap Corporation I'm guessing. But tremendously successful. Jason: [16:38] Yeah that has been the tide that has lifted all the the Gap boats for a while. And yeah that that is amazing you raise something that I have to ask though because it comes up a lot I work with a lot of Brands and these days I spend a lot of time cautioning them about how good the retailers are becoming it inventing their own Brands and and their first reaction is always the same is your trip to Minneapolis like you know targets not very good at this I'm not very worried right, and I think that was absolutely true back then and in many categories it still is true but I would argue that in some categories, and Target more so than most is getting darn good at this and you look today at like cat and Jack and they're very successfully competing with with Baby Gap and and you know sort of traditional brands. Mickey: [17:30] Hundred hundred percent I totally agree but you know what you're good at and the products right. And I think their inspiration I was told was the crew cuts I don't know if that's true or not I'm not the kids business anymore and I don't pay attention, but absolutely true look if it's a vision, and and the product is right and I always say the product has to be right and in their case you know the price is right well the past its product, quality of product value and that's by the way we did oh maybe that's the story in any business right product right value. Right marketing and emotional connection to it and then we had operated retail. And the style and taste is all for us it's very important. Jason: [18:23] So then we mentioned that you you started that that January a J.Crew which was a mess at the time, and I want to say one of the things you did for J.Crew kind of mirroring the Old Navy story is launched the Madewell brand there. Mickey: [18:41] Well I did that before I join J.Crew. I bought the name Madewell from a fellow named David Mullen who was it really nice company, hear that David used to work with me in wash it was a wash consult very talented guy showed me the name before I went to J.Crew, I love the longer it's very hard to name a company and the name immediately resonated with me, and I should Wanted You by Sly can't afford it, and so I paid $125,000 for the name which you know once you finish with those naming companies which I wouldn't want to do they'll charge you a million dollars will come up and bad names no offense the main companies. But but I thought the name 1937 already it had history it had a feeling it had emotion so I bought the name and tucked it away, and when we went public when we turn Jake you around, see I was there to about three or four years to you actually turn around always starts a year and a half later and that's three years later or whenever I thought it was time to start me. [20:04] So that's what we start the username and that was unlike every day unlike the everyday hero. Target this was a this was more complicated because the Old Navy was price point or two or three below gas. [20:25] This one and I might say was the first company to get to a billion dollars in sales as fast as they did until Apple get there. So it took off like a rocket at Old Navy like a rock it was really a very nice toy and maybe well was much more difficult, we took it we had a number of different people leading it, and we just couldn't get it going the right way I made a number of mistakes in opening up. Bedroom state which knows things it was real estate wasn't on Vine and that didn't work, we just didn't get our act together for at least four years in five years, and I was really upset because I said you know this is taking away from the value of our public company so we must 15 and 20 million dollars a year which I think we were maybe 15 million a year, you know you take the multiple of the stock and all the sudden you know the company's worth three hundred million dollars less because we're starting made well, so that kind of aggravated me couldn't get rid of that aggravation way things are but then some set. [21:43] I came back to the corporation he left for you or two and he was putting to be in charge of. Male and he did an incredible job and so he and I work very closely together. And I always merchandising Missouri involved. [22:06] And he did the design and he had a vision for design I had a vision well the storefront, it was kind of a I was always inspired by I think they're still around but I'm not sure a bread bread store in the village called the suvi oh maybe, I don't know if it's still there to be the bakery yes I always loved the way the storm was so we designed a store. I kind of felt like a see it was the studio I'm just actually look at a picture again we fun and we built a really I was really pleased with the store but I was not pleased with how the business was going, and some sack pinion looking at the storefront now online beautiful store and it's beautiful store goal, and emotion, and then when he came in the rest then this is starting to take off like a rocket plus woman named Mary. Who was jeans made merry new Mary knew more veggies. [23:19] And she joined us from Jay Vernon and Mary came in. Thanks Gary Pierson and she and some set and it takes people to do it we put together we became a major genes, that was our vision the best kind of jeans that not crazy designer prices and the company took off also at some point like a lock. And that was the story of Nemo. And you know all the retail to be all the over companies to Fashion they hit a wall at times and then they come back or they don't come back, and hitting a wall is part of what goes on every company I've been involved as hit a wall at some point it's a wall in any me to save it and bring it back or it or it continues to have a hard time. Jason: [24:17] For sure the side note another company hit a wall sadly was Vesuvio which is a hundred year old Bakery in SoHo I have some good news bad news they had a Hiatus and they reopened in like 20/20 so the last and I was is in SoHo they were they were open I had not heard what has happened since the pandemic and I can imagine it wasn't a great time for them so I hope they're doing well. Mickey: [24:43] We'll check it out and we'll let you know that's cool. Jason: [24:47] Awesome so then I do want to kind of just wrap up the clear stuff and then we're going to dive in a little deeper on a few of the things that we've already talked about but so today you are Alex Mill and do you want to tell us a little bit about Alex. Mickey: [25:01] Yeah sure Alex my son or Alex. Jason: [25:03] We're both I was waiting for you to tell that yes. Mickey: [25:08] Well my son started the business in 2005 13, and he just started I was very involved and I pretty much had nothing to do with it at all which he reminded me when I started here, he says you know you don't even wear our t-shirts which were famous for. And he was right I just didn't pay any attention and I probably should have but he didn't ask me really and he was a wholesale come. And we do business it was kind of cool we had a little bit of a cult following and and I'm allergic to high prices which really gets translated as too bad value, you know I don't mind high prices in certain categories or where you get what you pay for for a you know the prices are ridiculous but you might learn from his luggage or whatever from a mess, but we designer clothes in general so he went along I went along he. [26:18] When I left J.Crew I didn't think anything about his business but when some stack. Who is he quit he had a non-compete and I was his age. So we need help I hope to get jobs in the industry part-time jobs freelance because he walked away from a very very big job, and so the day his non-compete was up, I that was the day he was a beginning of a new Alex will be in some segments and do each other, and Alex was very happy that he would find some partner and some seconds considered the founder of the company he's a major shareholder long of Alex and myself, and he joined us. [27:16] And then I was very happy kind of had a job again because I was doing stuff but not doing what I love to do which is be involved in building a company Vision etcetera, so I joined I think it was about two and a half years ago I'm not even sure the day. And we had a little tiny office which I'm now we doubled the space instead, that we start to build a business and we had a vision and a woman's and Alex and I at the beginning or I would say it wasn't a marriage made in heaven, it's the it's the come one since when and it took a lot of work and a lot of a lot of help. And we finally listening I'm going to say that he's going to listening to his mother my wife about making certain that he and I get along and I did that with him, it was like another else conversation and it's been really really nice over the last number of months but it's hard. To be with your dad and I was trying to figure out is he. Someone I work with or is he my son and it's extremely difficult and he kept dealing with me as whatever I done. [28:40] And so now he's you know he's a partner along with some set and and Hussein. And we hired a team and it's very hard to start a company I had the bank of Gap in the Bank of J.Crew in my other two startups now I didn't have their back. And so we funded us elves which in a way is really good I also do want to have for the first time in my life. Too many opinions that weren't right and that was a blessing even though you know I'm doing this for a million years, if we're right we're right if we're wrong way wrong but my best board members were always people I knew anyway not necessarily on the board. But when you have a money partner which I certainly did they think about profits they think which is nothing wrong with it but, take its long-term to build a profitable company, and when you have hit a wall you succeed if you're good at it I always had a kind of ability to. Knock down and I just get right back up and I don't stop. [30:00] But some cases that doesn't happen but here we are independent Leo and not negotiating colors or Styles or what someone else thinks we should do. We're expanding in the business is starting to really kind of take off now so I'm really excited I've always been excited. It's about the taste quality I look at the landscape out there. And I think this is not a lot of things going on that I feel or what I would say are incredibly impressive there are those winners, and you all know who they are so what I'm hearing so I think we're all excited but small you know. But that's small anymore 20 people work there and we all have like multiple jobs which is good I've say snorts growing pretty rapidly, so and you know that's our mission. Jason: [31:03] My I have a some great empathy for your son Alex I'm a fourth-generation retailer and I think I can imagine poor Alex just wanted his famous dad to wear his t-shirts and he got an activist investor instead. Mickey: [31:15] What your fourth generation retailer. Jason: [31:19] Yeah yeah my family sort of started out in the in the grocery and then later jewelry business, I did want to highlight you've referenced it a couple times that you're also you had a long stint on the board at Apple and I want to say I've been, worked with Ron Johnson the number of times and I've seen some interviews with Steve Jobs and in both cases they reference you as the the retail Savvy board member and Apple. Mickey: [31:46] I met Steve in I loved Steve idolized ski and I still love him to this day, he was extraordinary and I give very slowly thinking about the way he died went through, and to excuse me per. Steve we met what he wants he gets when he doesn't stop at anything the most seductive human being I've ever met in my life, we met at a mutual friend's birthday party in Napa Valley came up to me and we start the shoes and, you don't say what's the job so long Steve you know a niche wasn't and we're talking and he. [32:32] Got in touch with me after that asked if I would join this board, and I said no I don't like public companies now I took my schmuck anti schmuck pills after the okay, because hello is that a bad word to say she's no and I realized holy shit, and I just you know I was yeah I was on a board you know bless them family board, in other words and items on a number of other boards and I get bored very quickly on boards because that's the way I am and I need to be action busy, and I'm not a technologist I don't know much about it but. So a year later he came to me after becoming come to me and said you join my board I will join Apples by Gap store, well Steve hate Sports also, but he and I said deal why because God will he be amazing on the board, just as a factor of not going along with everything already. [33:50] And he became a pain in the ass to the number of people who isn't always on Tiny going and what's up this kind of but he privately we had a really nice strong relationship. And she joined the board I would say made a few enemies on the board because he whatever he thinks he says that's it he says. And and sometimes he says it doesn't make people happy so so that's essentially what happened so in any case I join these board. And first thing he wanted me to do was to design a store. [34:31] And we had a really bad looking store and that he designed and then we got a warehouse which we used to do with my old company, and we got a warehouse you designed a brand new store in the warehouse p.m. for 5,000 square feet and. The store was really good-looking that's basically what happens students are today simple it showed off the price. And it wasn't a story that was czechia where the product was competing with the design and that was our first Apple Store, and then after that I just you know he asked me about color of iPods he always want to review the colors Etc. You know it's like you're 16 years and lives through extraordinary success and you know appreciate it I don't know you and appreciate it well he was alive and well. But just I just always you know he went to the meetings he started every single meeting for it spent most of his time on the. [35:46] And you don't find that many people and many companies they spend most of their time necessary not on product that was steamed on product, things tough he was titled in an infant in a good way in my mind you know Obama didn't call him back, one morning he wanted to President Obama to launch the first iPhone he was Furious Obama didn't get that I'll never forget that, he says how do you not call me back like this light in four hours Al Gore was on the boy houses Steve I'll get him to call you back whatever. [36:24] You know Obama told and back when you had a minute came back and says he's going to launch the iPhone pushing never did but that's what Steve wanted to believe anyway amazing amazing run, an amazing person he and Johnny I everyday had lunch and every day was you know what's the future going to hold. For apple and he the other thing he did, is he kind of made me for sure and numbers feel stupid at the end of a board meeting I wasn't in technology guys sometimes I'd say something that you look the righteousness gee how can I say that, and then you can bury yourself and say oh I don't want to disappoint Steve yeah but he was to me was a special unique gift to the world. And I miss him and I think the world misses in today. Scot: [37:18] Absolutely, because I'm the entrepreneur on the program Jason has a fancy corporate job and a title that has more words that I can keep track of the so you've been a successful entrepreneur for decades what advice would you give to an aspiring entrepreneur listening to the show like what are, distill down some of the things you've learned through there. Mickey: [37:36] I was explaining to him that every single day this we haven't really nice marketing business we do well but every day I come to work. And I reach for the sky. [37:52] And I'm trying to explain that no matter what we're doing oh he also time says I'm too critical of things or people or whatever and I said you know Alex everyday. I come to work I said every day you come to work I come to work and I look for what. Could be better not for what you write and I think a lot of people have a hard time with that vision is, where you going how you get there with the unknowns is critical, so people say well how do you do this that and the other thing and I said I had a photograph of what Gap should be I didn't in Maine. I didn't J.Crew and I actually I did yet in J.Crew and I didn't Old Navy and I didn't so I had a photograph in my mind we get sale in one Business book. Because it was actually misses you by I had to do with those. [38:56] That didn't work but yet not them to get up into the skill set whose huge toes. What you need to do and I can't speak about Instinct in other areas but I think Instinct judgment. Seeing around corners where they say skate to where the puck is going. Is extremely important in the fashion business and knowing when to go knowing when to stop when things slow down extremely. [39:30] Picking the right team is something rules that rules but got to pick the right partners and when you make a mistake in a partnership and so many of us don't do this for cleanup face up to you but. [39:46] And do something of that. You know and the bigger companies are no longer into the smaller company like this. About your all living together and it doesn't take long and when you're writing your own checks, that's a big difference when you're writing your own checks which I know most people probably don't have the ability to do, it's very different than the private Equity the joint venture etc etc but he country each business, as if you own it it's your money in and that's part of it and then you know we will passion, I say leadership curiosity I think anyone was not curious in my mind can't do well running a company, they have to be curious unless it's look like you speak about technology I just assumed the same rules. But building a retail company it's kind of like painting a very beautiful picture as to what we'll stick together you know I once went twice went to visit Ford motor. Design. [41:01] Headquarters and the first time I got was because Anna meaning with Jeff Sons yeah. Surrender they show the new Mustang this is probably seven. The co-host and I said he says what do you think of the car in front of all these people I said it's a very cool looking car. [41:26] The wheels are really big and I would never want to Market or sell a car for have one myself with a wheels are bad, I know it's kind of silly ish but it's not it's putting together a painting and there's nothing worse, there are worse things in wheels that stand out like a sore thumb so he invited me to, Detroit with designer factors Co didn't go with me which I thought says. He's no one not because of Nations and it was seven people designing the one car. Now you understand why the cars a lot of cases look like they look. Steve always wanted to talk he would have done now they were to get when I he was he was fascinated with Tesla very impressed night, from his point of view it wasn't I said I know if you remember the to see your test sports car. Scot: [42:28] Register yeah. Mickey: [42:29] I said Steve it's such an ugly looking Paris looks to me like you are pathetic it's not about the course looks you can always design a beautiful car it's about what's inside. Mechanics engineering but anyway I think. You know as for me I'm accused of being a micromanager you really better be, you better care about the wheels better care about this hear about that Medicare by recalling about he just you know we have a few new bad colors in Arabic in Arabic. The color is of opinion L and if you buy three good colors and then two bad ones you don't morejon out on the product because you have bad colors which I don't think people pay enough attention to. And I could know what I'm trying to think what else to go on. Scot: [43:23] You know I know we're running up on time but just quickly quickly so you you kind of were very early on what this kind of direct to Consumer now there's this whole digitally native vertical brand what what do you think's driving that Trend and where do you think it goes. Mickey: [43:39] Yeah I think it continues to go because if you're buying wholesale you know the pricing is all off. And I saw that when I was you know young guy you know like when I was at Bloomingdales I was 23. Alexander's department store maybe Fourth Generation member states they I was a swimsuit sweater and t-shirt. And everything else I wasn't I didn't do that for terribly wrong but for the year I was in there you are Alexander's cut their prices. In the middle of June and I'll never forget I had a couple my prices we had a policy to meet price. Young kid in the business and I was Furious Alexander's just here and now my my profits and margins. Then what to help. Because I hadn't worked out on my bathing suits that was a stupid rule but it wasn't a bad I kind of like the idea of Crisis competitors that was the beginning, what's happened to the last 30 or 40 years T.J.Maxx the most important department store. [44:58] And you know the word stimuli, we have all the discounts that and you go online and you we had a big discussion here yesterday you said well we sell this to Nordstrom Rack and he said well if it was an existing item, we want think if it isn't bad covers and they said you can't miss anything going to go online, given a look for this island yes my little bit Nordstrom Rack will whoever Valance T.J.Maxx before you see Alex Mill so the pricing. Is critical so white and a lot of what I did was also because who I always admired Ralph Lauren Bailey – pricing and I know all these things cost and so I said we can put together. A design team that will hopefully be as good as a design team ourselves if we do that I say I don't I don't want to have another problem. [45:59] So the prophets were always all the retailers are inflated in America in Goods that are wholesale purchases, because it is plant safety and cost, and here we might sell 250 you spend fifty yourself Bloomingdale's 425 and hundred twenty-five goes to 275 or $300 is the difference. In pricing so TJ Max knows that really long Ross stores. Everyone knows it and and I think that's why I don't think there's a future to be in that business. And I sit to the parks to excited family with a lot and probably not have to hear this but. Jason: [46:46] Yeah no department stores listen to our show I promise I'm. Mickey: [46:52] So I said I really don't want to see I said where you going to be in five years or ten years if everything you bought. Is available at a discount and that's the truth. So and I have friends in the business they do hello mrs. with teaching marks they do with most of the partner stories and what does that leave you and Caroline Woods is a great coach. And really smart nice person but what is forty fifty sixty billion dollars huge profits so, and really big believer must now this is where I'm standing in the luxury business is not. We have they probably can do it now via makes does. They do with brilliantly I guess the other one you know they have they can probably do it who's those customers probably like it exclusivity they like paying more money and so on and so forth but it works through that I think it does, so so I know if I knew the answer to that question with that pricing thing is huge. Jason: [48:06] No it's a it's a big issue for the industry to figure out and people that don't are going to. Have it have a challenging future I think as you've highlighted I did want to ask you a question so, if anyone Google's Mickey Drexler your you're gonna find all these business articles with your picture on the cover and some variation of this title that we've all given you the merchant Prince um and that the kind of just I hope you're okay with it seems like you get that title whether you want it or not. The gist of all those is that man, Mickey had a really good run of picking a lot more winners than losers of therefore it having the the products that that consumers wanted and you know they're there for achieving a bunch of financial success for your various businesses and I've always wanted to ask you, is in your mind is that success as a merchant is that we're you better than other people at, identifying the trends that were emerging in what people wanted or were you better at getting people to want what what you liked. Mickey: [49:19] I think it's a little box I think our industry is lacking. Merchants today as much as I've seen over the last many many decades. I don't know what it is but I think you have a sense of seeing around corners you must see around the corners, I believe except if you're a seller if you're a Discounter and you're good at it you don't have to see around the corners just have to Source right, and I have the right price and have a great way to view or but those businesses are out there I don't really know them well. But that's important in most business not enough you know, worthy I think mostly eyeglasses they sell what's true of all of us most of what we sell, are what we would call her oh it items iconic but you have to feel it you have to see it. You have to have an inch and in the instinct is incredibly. [50:39] I think I was talking to a friend yesterday and he said in his 15 year old is now color rather than know what need p is. The expanse was something I said you know it's interesting I said to Henry I said do, is there anyone in your family who is musical I always ask someone that question whoever I interview, and sure enough Henry's wife plays very good these though and Henry was a musician. [51:13] Growing up. And now here's their son they are very talented musician artist creative there's always some kind of. DNA is connection is fine and it always also depends on who works I was very lucky, I started working for a woman named King Marcin I didn't work for she's the best Fortune taste Isle and when I got to Bloomingdale's like this young. [51:42] And I was after the first day in the house was checking on what they gave me a department to run, Stand start that's it you're the buyer one department and Katie Mercy was my mentors go off to Europe together factories and I guess I learned from her, and she the best merchants in the company if she wasn't a woman she's Co she was fantastic but there is something you get. Fun styling taste that you were born with and I think that's true in stinking with anything in the world. Tonight and it's not a scientific illusion but I everyone I interview I kind of want to know what their parents did. [52:30] For what this family that might have been a grandfather and a lot of especially creative it. So so I think that's really important the other part of the question is mostly was what you're going with and then creating your maker, well there's a lot of things under the radar and if you go after it you create demand for the people just don't expose it so we have recording a items we bring in, old mr. white we doing that way of doing this and they take off like crazy because someone wanted. And understanding what someone might want and Steve Jobs has tasks. [53:17] Is all part of the skill set with meeting. I'm not too bad Commodities during this price I thought would worry Parker bids was absolutely brilliant at figuring. What's out there with the stylish kind of cool pumping where people are going to pay $95 for their eyeglasses the only thing I say that Neil and Davis I think we need to at times. Balance or if you read Tales they could probably leave me come to my newest company of record I said I think you can have one more fun and I prices and however Orange. But the most important so then just like friends but no I think you you kind of born I see, I see him every time you sit down and look at it woman and she gets it it's in her blood why she has. And she's had a chief Merchant and see something and feels it and knows it and you know and then you have to be go to the message you're not quitting. [54:23] You have to know numbers you have to get Four Kings you have to figure out how long it'll be around you know has has everything. To the end of the numbers of databases we've been doing data since with 23 years old, whatever you always needed you need to know how much to buy anything happens to the forecast and you need to know how many sizes you do but now they have another fancy name for it. Act like merchandising second you're not going to succeed in affection. Jason: [54:58] I think you just answered my next question but that's like so obviously the traditional merchandising you have this science part which is the math and the forecasting and open a by and all that good stuff and you have the intuition which like to a certain extent seems like a god-given talent the, what's interesting to me is lately some of these new companies that have been born and Amazon being a great example like they used to hire a lot of merchants in every category so that have a, pet food buyer and you know and apparel buyer and a battery by or whatever they've kind of gotten rid of the merchant title and they've gone all-in on the data so they call it hands off the wheel and they let the computer decide what to buy, instead of a merchant and I've told lesser extent I think Katrina it Stitch fix, has that model a little where she uses data to inform her product a lot more and then you think of like she in and the Uber fast fashion space is, is that a future Trend like do you see that mostly working for these discount categories is that. Mickey: [56:03] Well I think you can argue Amazon but you know I thought when when I was I thought Amazon should have purchased J.Crew. I thought it would be really smart purchase they get a culture fashion and style. I think they'd be dangerous if they could figure that out. [56:30] And so we had someone approached them and of course it was done yeah not the personally I won't be there. I think that. If you look you can't even Stitch fix success but you cannot argue with kind of goods they sell if you. I like what I do I love I love what I do and it's about taste and style and if you do that for. Many have a point of view you'll probably do well so I need you to it is really good at the Bronx Science I couldn't get arrested enhanced you G I was always really good, I think you have to be good so I guess I do all the stuff they do I do. We're just hiring people do single stitch. We haven't been there but then again we are you know my choices to be the style formation with fun and emotion I give credit to any company. Whatever they do is stand financially successful of your poems but I don't know enough about Stitch fix lots of opportunities and Stitch fix. Jason: [57:50] Chien have you follow them at all. Mickey: [57:52] Like they're wildly successful I don't follow them when it's but you know. Jason: [58:00] It seems like they're a lot more about like plugging into all the social media you know like picking up the latest trends on on Instagram and Tick-Tock and things like that and then like you know super fast supply chain 2, didn't get those Trends in. Mickey: [58:16] Yeah and then again I care about quality and I care about all the stuff maybe bit different but if they're really from Julia. Jason: [58:25] It is it's a Chinese company they don't love for people to know that. Mickey: [58:29] Yeah well you know I wanted but sourcing their secretary like giveaway Price is Right. Jason: [58:36] Yeah it's super inexpensive like some people call it disposable fashion which is probably a. Mickey: [58:41] Yeah this is not what we want to do it's a kid's business on young business. I don't know we'll see how I like you know my company's that well so we'll see. [59:01] But but no I think the maths we really need a good mind and and for me I'm a huge micro. I'm looking at. Right now jumpsuit made dead which is brand-new and we're going to sell a lot of it is you know we just put it it's kind of comes naturally if you have the big jumps in the cellar. And and so you know you always create but you're not creating months Salem I just looked at. [59:36] I'm just really upset I looked at it I see why did me five men were 87 and it's $295 I said that's important just came in yesterday to the bad mark. And usually they can get away with doing that as a rebuttal so when you got it. And right now syllables troops crossed because it's not being self so you kind of get something you kind of knowing side and sort of okay. It's just bad news and it's not us. And you have to have a sense like covers the same thing most of them look alike so that the finger it comes. I think it's an offender brand new bottle and it's made by making sure it's a really good looking car and. I looked at it I said I don't want to renew pop color something that's you know not everyone's driving it's a very good looking car and you can see it's going to be a big guy. Because it's really designed well you know part talking about it over. Jason: [1:00:48] No I'm trying to switch. Mickey: [1:00:50] It's called The Defender I like your car like this. Not to me but you work committee should whatever but you could see the second Network, Tina news needles and I think it is I see a lot of them and cars used to be a lot more interesting design, then they are too maybe it's because is definitely people decide on here maybe it's the vision see it's hard to find cars and is Towing it. You know you all have an interest in cars. No we talked to what good looking car and not a lot of them are right so and I used to collect isn't nice. But but I kind of collecting child fantasize you've been having some cool cars but they are all kind of well design. They were uniquely designed and today you know it's a different world. Marker 06 Jason: [1:01:52] Yeah no for sure and it's it, interesting there sort of both out there there's you know people that you know still go for that unique distinctive looking care about the Aesthetics and there's people that you know just want to take an Uber for, for transportation so seems like a parallel is going in the same direction as that there's you know strong stuff with a strong point of view and that's that's quality and unique and then you know there's some people that you know just want, affordable inexpensive sweatshirt. Mickey: [1:02:23] Sure was were those for sure but you know I like the integrity. And not expensive I personally don't like expensive too expensive you know I mean I know maybe this is for sure. Jason: [1:02:43] Yeah well is it Mickey we could go on for hours but it has happened again we have used up all of our allotted time and I actually think. Mickey: [1:02:53] I'm having so much fun here guys. Jason: [1:02:55] I know I know why we will record the Extended Cut and you and I can just keep chatting. Mickey: [1:03:02] Anytime seriously. Jason: [1:03:04] You're our new guest host you're in. Mickey: [1:03:08] All right listen thanks a lot I appreciate the time and the questions and the schmoozing you know I do like two shoes so this is a great shoes. [1:03:26] Never ever I was on that I was on Instagram for about a minute and I came off like I don't want to forget. Scot: [1:03:36] Okay well you if people want more you exclusively come to the Jason Scott show that's where you'll be going. Mickey: [1:03:41] Anytime. Jason: [1:03:42] We really appreciated the time and enjoyed chatting with you and until next time happy commercing.

Dubbed by the New York Times as ‘the woman who dresses America', Jenna Lyons, is a fashion icon and the co-founder/CEO of the beauty brand, LoveSeen. Having kicked off her career as an intern at Donna Karan, Jenna went on to join the design team at J.Crew, eventually becoming its President. She is recognized as the main driver behind its incredible rise to success, and is a regular feature in print and online media, including having been recognized as one of Time Magazine's 100 most influential people.After 27 years at J.Crew, Jenna was finally ready to start her own empire. She launched her company LoveSeen, a direct-to-consumer beauty brand that is reinventing fake lashes, which was largely inspired by her genetic condition that impacts her lash growth. And she was most recently, the Executive Director and main star of her reality competition show, Stylish with Jenna Lyons on HBO Max. On today's episode, you'll hear how Jenna's challenging childhood experiences shaped who she is and how she experiences the world today, including her attitude to finances and her love for fashion. She tells us what it was like to live in New York in the 1980s and discover a new standard of beauty which was largely different from the beach town she grew up in. Jenna reveals what it was like to work with Mickey Drexler, former CEO and Chairman of J.Crew Group, the skills she needed to develop to manage the people she worked with, and what it was like to enter the public eye. You'll also hear why Jenna decided to reinvent herself later in her career, how she overcame the most difficult transition in her life when she left J.Crew, what she loves about working in beauty when compared with fashion, and the biggest lessons she's learned on running her entrepreneurial ventures.In this episode, we'll talk to Jenna about: * The impact of Jenna's mother's attitude towards financial independence on how she approaches money today. [3:10]* How knowing you can take care of yourself affects fear and trust in relationships. [4:30]* The poignant experience of interest in her work and style when she began to make clothes after growing up feeling unattractive. [5:20]* What it was like to grow up with a genetic disorder and how sewing a skirt led to a popular girl in school asking Jenna to make one for her too. [6:40]* What it was like to live in New York in the late 1980s. [9:04]* How Jenna didn't meet the standard of beauty in the beach town she grew up in. [10:30]* The discovery of Antonio Lopez as a pivotal point in discovering her own beauty. [11:38]* How she came to intern at Donna Karan and study at Parsons University in the 90s. [12:35]* The listing that led Jenna to take a job at J.Crew without asking about the salary. [13:35]* Why she was so unhappy at the start of her career at J.Crew. [15:48]* The dramatic change at J.Crew that completely turned things around [17:20]* What it was like working with Mickey Drexler (CEO of JCrew); his alchemy skills, attunement, and insight. [18:18]* Jenna's lifelong drive to make beautiful things that she could be proud of. [18:43]* How she needed to develop skills to manage people she worked with. [21:20]* What she learned from Mickey's desire to hear from everyone. [22:18]* Entering the public eye starting with Domino Magazine, then Vogue with Annie Leibovitz, and the internal struggle Jenna experienced. [25:01]* Find out how Jenna navigated different transition periods in her life. [28:29]* The nine-month period of silence that helped her regroup and see what's important. [29:10]* Being approached to do television and what it was like to shoot the reality show. [31:43]* What Jenna loves about the beauty scene: she doesn't have to think about size. [36:05]* How Jenna realized the significance of eyelashes and decided to start her business. [37:00]* The areas of running her own business that are new to her and how she is learning new things along the way. [40:50]* How admitting that you don't know things can open you up to learn new things. [42:00]Follow Jenna:* Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jennalyonsnyc/* Website: https://loveseen.com/ * LoveSeen Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/loveseen/* Stylist by Jenna HBO Max: https://www.stylishwithjennalyons.com/ Follow Yasmin:* Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/yasminknouri/* Stay updated & subscribe to our newsletter: https://www.behindherempire.com/ See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Was The Gap's CEO Comments About Kanye West Racist? Kanye West is one of the most influential fashion designers of all time. Because of this, the Kanye West gap deal became a reality in 2020. Kanye decided to collaborate and make yeezy gap. This Yzy gap collaboration is exclusive only to gap stores. The first installment of gap yeezy was the yeezy gap round jacket release. It sold out in hours and made Yeezy X Gap $7M. Although this isn't Kanye West yeezy, numbers for Kanye first go with the gap. This is commendable. Ex-Gap CEO Mickey Drexler thought this collaboration was a bad idea and make some disparaging comments about Kanye West and his business dealings. Watch this entire clip to hear the comments that Mickey Drexler mad ►► Click Here and Subscribe to the #1 music marketing channel on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/Doriangroup82?sub_confirmation=1 Sell My Course and I'll Pay You $1,000 ►► Click link: https://www.group82university.com/affiliates Need more help developing the foundation for your brand so you can make $100,000 yourself? Click the link and buy my “How To Market Your Music On Social Media” Course: www.group82university.com Do you want to make $5000/month from YouTube? Download this free tool Dorian uses to optimize his YouTube Channel to get the most views and revenue. It's FREE: https://www.tubebuddy.com/doriangroup82 Get Your Free Ebook: “How To Get 1 Million Streams On Spotify” by clicking the link below. It's FREE. https://www.group82music.com/linkinbio Follow Dorian on Instagram - https://instagram.com/doriangroup82?igshid=ful32lx6msk4 Subscribe to Dorian's YouTube for free daily content - https://youtube.com/c/DorianGroup82 Follow Dorian on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@doriangroup82 Song: “Scroll” by Dorian Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/track/40shvmSnw0zsfgD3KqBq2n?si=iP-gI6q5QTGzWr3G70Nciw Apple Music - https://music.apple.com/us/album/scroll/1523054326?i=1523054333 Watch the full video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/w6yQHmkazxY --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/82pointsofview/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/82pointsofview/support

Former CEO of The Gap, Banana Republic and J.Crew, Mickey Drexler has always had a keen instinct for merchandising and a philosophical commitment to following his gut in business. Drexler's impact on pop culture is astounding as his fingerprint can be found on almost every fashion retail success over the last thirty years. Listen as Mickey and David discuss creative energy, landing on the name “Old Navy”, and designing the first Apple store with Steve Jobs.

I launched a Patreon! Patreon.com/thecuttingroomfloor  Mickey Drexler has been in the fashion industry otherise known as "the rag trade" for over 40 years. Best known for running The Gap for 18 years and later Old Navy, J.Crew, Madewell and now working alongside his son Alex Drexler who founded Alex Mill, Mickey has a unique approach to leadership, shopkeeping, and selling goods at great value.  INSTAGRAM: @OMNDI TWITTER: @OMONDIPRESENTS PATREON: PATREON.COM/THECUTTINGROOMFLOOR

I launched a Patreon! Patreon.com/thecuttingroomfloor  Mickey Drexler has been in the fashion industry otherise known as "the rag trade" for over 40 years. Best known for running The Gap for 18 years and later Old Navy, J.Crew, Madewell and now working alongside his son Alex Drexler who founded Alex Mill, Mickey has a unique approach to leadership, shopkeeping, and selling goods at great value.  INSTAGRAM: @OMNDI TWITTER: @OMONDIPRESENTS PATREON: PATREON.COM/THECUTTINGROOMFLOOR

Heading up a startup, as opposed to a large corporation, has its pros and cons, said Mickey Drexler, the former CEO and chairman of J.Crew Group and CEO of Gap Inc. Today, Drexler is the executive chairman of Alex Mill. The fashion brand was founded in 2012 by his son, Alex Drexler, and Somsack Sikhounmuong, who formerly led design at Madewell. "When I started Old Navy, I had the bank of Gap to fund it… Then I started Madewell, which I owned the name of and sold to J.Crew, and [it was] the same thing: I had the bank of J.Crew,” Drexler said on the latest Glossy Podcast. “But with this business, there are no big banks. There's my bank and my son's bank; we don't have any investors other than us. And it's much more difficult.” Still, he said, “I love it. Because you're involved in every decision. You're looking at everything in detail. And you're micromanaging like crazy, which I like to do.” Rather than investors, Alex Mill has an "unofficial" board of directors, largely made up of people who work in the industry. “Understanding the fashion business is a rarity if you're not in it,” he said. While Alex Mill is not yet profitable, Drexler said business is “seven times what it was two and a half years ago.” And, he said, the company is getting ready to “step on the gas,” in terms of accelerating its growth. That includes linking with a marketing agency; adding to the company's one store, in NYC's SoHo; getting inventory right and continuing to sell at full price. “If we weren't direct-to-consumer, the goods we sell would all be marked down somewhere,” he said. “The most successful department store today is TJ Maxx.”

Mickey Drexler is a master of retail. He’s the former Chairman and CEO of The Gap and J Crew, served on the board at Apple for 16 years with Steve Jobs, started Old Navy, and now runs Alex Mill with his son. He's an investor and advisor for many others. We chat about infrared saunas, walking across New York, keeping a short haircut, why a Hermes saddle makes the perfect gift, growing up in The Bronx, our favorite malls in America, buying clothes and keeping them forever, what it takes for a clothing store to turn him on, how Steve Jobs got him to join the board at Apple, his favorite cars through the years, and how Chris plans to follow Mickey in his footsteps. businessoffashion.com/MD twitter.com/donetodeath twitter.com/themjeans --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/howlonggone/support

After 27 years as the iconic mind behind J.Crew creative, Jenna Lyons is a few months into the launch of a brand new startup – Loveseen. Of course, her decades of creative and marketing success are invaluable to her new pursuit, but she admits that she still has a lot she has to learn.Visit the Lumi blog for links and images.

Jenna Lyons is joining us to help bring a little style and flair to your holidays. One of the most influential women in fashion in the 21st century, Jenna was the creative director and president of J. Crew, dressing everyone from Michelle Obama to movie stars. Today, she’s the star of a brand new HBO Max series, Stylish With Jenna Lyons, and she launched her own beauty line, Love Seen. Jenna and host Kerry Diamond talk Christmas trees, holiday movies and music, and Jenna shares her advice on pivoting, picking yourself up, and believing in yourself. Tune in to hear more!Thank you to @WinesOfSicily for supporting our miniseries. Ask for Sicilia DOC at your favorite local wine shop.

Talk about thrilling: We have a bonafide icon on today’s ep. We’re talking to Mickey Drexler—who spearheaded Gap and J.Crew in their heydays and is now helping make magic happen at Alex Mill—about how he works and just plain does his days. But first: sweet potatoes, which aren’t boring, ok?   The linkage:   Three recipes for exciting sweet potatoes! Ones loaded with lentils, citrus, and feta, ones topped with tahini butter, and ones baked into a (paleo) bread. And one non-recipe: almond butter and seasoned rice vinegar mixed into a sauce and topped with furikake.   Mickey Drexler’s latest retail undertaking (led by his son, Alex Drexler!) is Alex Mill. We love it. Erica wears these and this all the time, Claire can often be spotted in this and this, and just about everybody sweats these.   When it comes to meditating, Mickey is into Hamsa and Transcendental Meditation.   A home-goods business Mickey likes: Snowe.   Wow, do we get psyched about voicemails: 833-632-5463!   Yay!   Produced by Dear Media

Mickey Drexler is a product guy. He’s always feeling fabrics, talking about key items, and thinking about upcoming trends. He is obsessed with the details. Obviously he has excellent taste and is driven to keep pushing brands to new and better places. That’s why he is universally known as an incredible merchant. We sat down to record this podcast in February, just before the pandemic really took hold, and he was as curious as ever. He’s a high energy guy and seems to always be moving a mile a minute. His pace and demeanor are very much a source of inspiration for me. I’m also a sucker for product people, so I suppose it makes sense that Mickey is someone that I really respect and look up to in the business. The morning we recorded this in February Mickey and I met at the new Alex Mill store on Mercer. We were the first people to walk into the shop that morning. We went to the offices downstairs and we immediately start going through racks and looking at the clothes. Throughout most of my career meetings have involved looking at clothes and it felt normal to be going through racks with him. I’m not a merchant (and what do I really know?) but Mickey was asking me about sweaters and chore coats and overdyed wovens. He’s always probing and gathering intel on what’s cool. The Alex Mill collection seems to be a nice evolution of the stylish aesthetic that Mickey has championed for decades. What’s happening at Alex Mill seems to be the culmination of everything Mickey has learned over the years. The collection is built around a classic core but has subtle design and playfulness that designer Somsack Sikhounmuong does so well. Things feel fresh and the brand seems free from any sort of preconceived notions of what it should be. Alex Mill has a restrained approach to opening physical retail (right now the 70 Mercer flagship is the only shop) and it is smartly emphasizing its own e-commerce channel. It feels different to me than other DTC brands— it’s much more product-focused, which makes sense considering who is running it. We spoke about this in the podcast, but this emphasis on the direct business helps Alex Mill price and position itself correctly. I’ve been a fan since founder Alex Drexler started making woven shirts in 2012. The evolution of the Alex Mill from a tiny wholesale-focused business to more of what Mickey did with Madewell feels natural to me. I think the product is unique enough to differentiate the brand. The quality is good considering the price point and overall the spirit of the brand seems light. I get the sense that the people working on Alex Mill are making the clothes that they want to wear and doing things for the right reasons. Alex Mill 1.0 was great and the direction Mickey, Somsack, and Alex have collectively taken the brand in this evolution is impressive. It makes me happy to see a brand that makes good product and avoids falling into the hype and influencer pandemonium that has guided so many companies recently. There’s still a place for brands who make compelling product and Alex Mill is in the right place at the right time. This quote on the Alex Mill website says it all. “Nobody needs new clothes right now. But everyone needs the right clothes. So we make them.”Programming NoteMickey was the first person I thought of when I decided I wanted to record a few podcasts. He was the first email I sent, and he immediately replied with a yes. I was excited and a little bit nervous because I had no idea what I was doing, but I was on the hook with Mickey, so I had to just figure it out and move forward. My plan is to publish podcasts when there are opportunities to talk to interesting people who I like. I want to try and remove the publishing constraints that might produce more “content” but at a lower quality. My goal is not to launch a full-scale podcast, but to add depth to the newsletter. Going forward these podcasts will be reserved for the paid subscribers. Thank you as always for the opportunity to tell these stories. If you have feedback or ideas for a future conversation, please reply to this email or comment. A special thanks to Al James for allowing me to use his wonderful music. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at www.acl.news/subscribe

Here we are again, talking about stuff no one else is talking about (and we hope that’s a good thing?). Today, we’re digging into a surprisingly handy word and plenty o’ business insights from the bonafide retail legend Mickey Drexler, who’s lived through plenty of ups and downs.   The linkage:   Introducing a weirdly useful term: webonair.   Have you listened to the podcast Bad on Paper? ‘Cause ya should.   If you didn’t catch our first chat with Mickey Drexler, you can do that right over here.   Alex Mill is Mickey’s latest undertaking with his son...and we have been talking about too much on this podcast, we’re aware.   Here’s the Agnès B. cardigan Erica was wearing that you couldn’t see through your headphones. It got a nice send-up from The Cut recently, too.   Reminder that you can sign up for our newsletter, get coupon codes, etc., etc. on claireanderica.com.    Produced by Dear Media

Bobbi says she’s experienced love at first sight twice: once with her husband, and again with Mickey Drexler. Mickey was the CEO of J.Crew for more than 15 years. During that time, he launched Madewell, Baby Gap, Old Navy, and helped Steve Jobs design the first Apple Store. He was also Bobbi’s first call when she left Bobbi Brown Cosmetics. In their conversation, Bobbi and Mickey talk about reinvention, the true meaning of creativity, the state of retail today, and the real origin behind the name “Old Navy.” Learn more about Mickey’s son Alex and his co-founder Somsack’s clothing line Alex Mill on Instagram @alexmillny and visit www.alexmill.com Learn more about your ad-choices at https://news.iheart.com/podcast-advertisers

The New York-based ‘merchant prince’ speaks with BoF’s Lauren Sherman about discount culture and how tapping into the zeitgeist helped turn around brands like Gap and J.Crew. Sign up for BoF’s Daily Digest newsletter here: http://bit.ly/BoFnews. Ready to become a BoF Professional? For a limited time, enjoy 25% discount on an annual membership, exclusively for podcast listeners. Simply, click here: http://bit.ly/2xNP5Rs, select the Annual Package and use code PODCASTPRO at the checkout. For comments, questions, or speaker ideas, please e-mail: podcast@businessoffashion.com.For all sponsorship enquiries, it’s: advertising@businessoffashion.com.

Talk about thrilling: We have a bonafide icon on today’s ep. We’re talking to Mickey Drexler—who spearheaded Gap and J.Crew in their heydays and is now helping make magic happen at Alex Mill—about how he works and just plain does his days. But first: sweet potatoes, which aren’t boring, ok?   The linkage: Three recipes for exciting sweet potatoes! Ones loaded with lentils, citrus, and feta, ones topped with tahini butter, and ones baked into a (paleo) bread. And one non-recipe: almond butter and seasoned rice vinegar mixed into a sauce and topped with furikake Mickey Drexler’s latest retail undertaking (led by his son, Alex Drexler!) is Alex Mill. We love it. Erica wears these and this all the time, Claire can often be spotted in this and this, and just about everybody sweats these. When it comes to meditating, Mickey is into Hamsa and Transcendental Meditation. A home-goods business Mickey likes: Snowe. Wow, do we get psyched about voicemails: 833-632-5463!   Produced by Dear Media

Dave sits down with merchandising titan Mickey Drexler — known for his work stewarding the Gap, Abraham & Straus, Apple, J.Crew, and other successful businesses — to glean pearls of wisdom.

After 16 years at J. Crew, Somsack Sikhounmuong switched to a much smaller company to design clothes for Alex Mill. But he's remaining close to the Drexler family. "I always joke that he's my fairy god agent," said Sikhounmuong about Mickey Drexler, the former CEO of J. Crew Group. During a sabbatical after his work at J. Crew and Madewell, the J. Crew subsidiary that continues to outshine its parent company, Sikhounmuong got a phone call from Mickey Drexler: "I was in line at Whole Foods, because I wasn't working and I could be in line at Whole Foods in the afternoon," he said. Mickey asked him to meet with his son Alex Drexler about designing for Alex's company, Alex Mill, for which Mickey Drexler is both an investor and an advisor. On the Glossy Podcast, Sikhounmuong discussed his work for Alex Mill, which was founded in 2012 out of "a tiny store on Elizabeth Street." Sikhounmuong also talked about the difference between designing clothes for women versus men, the transition from a massive company to a startup, and the experience of interviewing with J. Crew's Jenna Lyons.

The Dow closed up 151 points and Jim Cramer is revealing 4 qualities to look for while stock picking in this market. Then, Cramer’s sitting down with Mickey Drexler, the former CEO & Chairman of J.Crew, to discuss the future of retail and his latest venture, Alex Mill. And, last night Bed Bath and Beyond announced a new CEO which caused the stock to rally over 21% today. Cramer’s making sense of the headlines and sharing whether this is the catalyst the company needed for change. Finally, could the maker of Spam be the secret to staying defensive in this market? Cramer’s chatting with Hormel’s Chairman, President & CEO, Jim Snee, to discuss where the company is headed next. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Omni Talk crew is back this week talking Apple Pay's breakout into Target, Taco Bell and Hy-Vee stores. We also cover Brandless moving away from their $3 price point, Walmart's "Stealth Project" CEO opening, and more!

Brandon Truaxe of Deciem has died, Lanvin has a new creative director, and we ask where in the world WAS Karl Lagerfeld? A bridal retailer is getting out of bankruptcy, a luxury brand is dealing with a discrimination lawsuit, and Mickey Drexler left J.Crew. Is an IPO on the way for a luxury reseller? Plus: Eco-friendly denim! Come hang out! Pop Fashion Links Website: www.popfashionpodcast.com Instagram: @popfashionpodcast Twitter: @JustPopFashion Lisa’s Links Twitter: www.twitter.com/lisatella Website: www.lisarowan.com Kaarin’s Links Twitter: www.twitter.com/truetostyle Website: www.truetostyle.com

EP159 - 2019 Predictions and 2018 Recap Our annual predictions episode for 2019 and a recap of our 2018 predictions. 2018 Recap - Predictions made on episode 112 Scot Mallageddon 2.0 - We saw 7000 stores close in 2017, I think this accelerates in 2018 as the 30-40% of weak malls fail  closures. YES Amazon will NOT buy another offline retailer, triples down on private label. YES Amazon will squarely get in the last mile business in 2018 and compete with FedEx and UPS. NO Amazon’s ad group will get so large that they have to break out details about it and everyone will be shocked at how large it has gotten so quickly YES Walmart will make a big M+A - top candidates would be Instacart, postmates and eBay. YES Somebody acquires Magento, or they go public. YES 5/6 Bonus - Amazon comes out with Alexa powered wireless earbuds - because I want them. NO Jason Grocery gets disrupted by digital (led by curbside pickup).  Digital grocery doubles in US, at least one delivery firm peters out.YES Drug gets disrupted by digital. NO AI Gap - biggest trend of 2018 NO Voice - Huge but not for commerce. YES Payments - Retail digital wallets die (except Starbucks/Walmart/Amazon).  Bitcoin tanks. YES 3/5 Bonus - Amazon launches a wearable. NO .  Scot crushes Jason! 2019 Predictions Scot At least 5k more store closures in 2019  Amazon - Prof Galloway is big on Amazon having to create a AWS spinoff and has moderated that to tracking stock. I’m going to predict Amazon doesn’t do either of those things. But this WILL be the year they break ads out. eBay/Alibaba - I think this is the year when the both need to do something big and the stars are aligning for a combination there.   Shopify gets acquired by one of the big ad-based companies (facebook/google most likely)  Walmart stumbles in e-commerce Jason Amazon store count exceeds 1000 stores Walmart buys a last mile firm  Another big  bankruptcy (going to be a tougher than expected year, JCP, category killers Office, BBBY, Neiman) Mobile commerce revenue passes Desktop - Aided by PWA’s, and payment API’s we see mobile gap narrow Fads (Voice Commerce, Customer facing AI, SocialCommerce, VR BlockChain) Bonus: Amazon breaks out Prime revenue.   Don't forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes. Episode 159 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Sunday, January 6th, 2019. www.jasonandscot.com Transcript Jason: [0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scott show this is episode 159 being recorded on Sunday January 6th 2019 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scott Wingo. Scot: [0:39] Hey Jason and welcome back and happy New Year Jason Scott show listeners Jason am I mistaken or is that some new music we have there at the beginning. Jason: [0:48] Yeah yeah due to overwhelming listener feedback that I finally updated the the intro to the show it is the same song and the the same announcer but you know you and I both both had some career accomplishments in that in the last year until now there are titles are updated and it's you know just kind of refreshed for the year. Scot: [1:13] Yeah and you how is the new gig going for anyone that missed for smashing on you if you missed any of our last couple episodes but Jason has a new gig will see if I can remember this Chief Grand Superior digital retail Commerce officer is that the right now. Jason: [1:31] The for the second time in a row you nailed it exactly right. Scot: [1:35] Awesome my dad sometimes I drop a word in there but I think I got them all. Jason: [1:38] Yep and impacted cuz you mark that title so much in the last episode I had a ton of a client with legitimately fancy titles all making fun of me for the for the entire break so thanks very much for that Scott. Scot: [1:52] Awesome it's maybe that will be everyone's New Year's resolution is to give Jason a hard time about his awesome new title. Jason: [1:58] For for sure. Scot: [2:00] Coldwell we're post holidays here I think everyone's probably on the edge of their seat did you get any cool new gadgets. Jason: [2:12] Ya always tough. Like in general there's an extremely narrow gap between my desires and fulfillment in so. Like if I got some new gadgets for Christmas it's most likely because a new Gadget came out right before Christmas so I will say I did some refresh is I finally got the. The iPad Pro the 10.5% sync you also have I haven't unbent version I've been pretty. Pretty happy with that and because because of the new job I had to trade out laptops and so now I have finally have a in all USB C. Ecosystem with the iPad and the the the laptop so I've getting those new gadgets of course cost me thousands of dollars in new adapters and cables in. And all angles but I guess the one minor little toy I got is a new. A video camera well I got a couple new vision cameras so I got the DJI osmo pocket. Scot: [3:24] Nice. Jason: [3:25] This is a tiny as in fits like in the palm of your hand you could you could hide it in your hand video camera with a a fully-functioning gimbal so it's, pretty cool to have some some. Funny pictures I'm looking forward to taking nap to the several upcoming trade shows that will probably talk about in a minute so that has been cool and I did a little earlier than Christmas get the new Nikon. Mirrorless camera system so a Nikon Zed 6 if you're from your upper or a Z6 if you're in the US. Scot: [4:01] Cool house that is the mirror listen can you tell the difference. Jason: [4:05] Yet yet so Nikon has always had a great reputation for digital still cameras and great image quality in low-light capability in the color rendering they've been extraordinary really horrible at video. And I'm assuming I actually need a camera that's. Okay it Stills and also very good at video so the fact that I've always own Nikon cameras and have Nikon lenses have been. A constant pain point for me because my car's been so far behind on video and so there's some the mirrorless cameras in general are much better at video and this this. Nikon's first mirrorless full-frame camera. Really does a pretty good weed frog for video capabilities in a lot of ways so it's it's definitely the best. Video stills camera I've ever owned. Scot: [5:01] Koba I know you're off to CES next week and we will have a lot more gadget news for us then you and I are both at the NRF Big Show so maybe we'll shoot some video do a live streaming or something fun like that. Jason: [5:12] I will bring all those gadgets why be using them to photograph any cool new gadgets that you got for the holiday stuff. Scot: [5:19] I I said William like you where I think I probably had caught up on my gadgets before the holiday suit so nothing new for me. Oh yeah yeah I do think did you get the keyboard case on your iPad I really enjoyed that. Jason: [5:35] Yeah I did I've enjoyed that it's been it's my first iPad with a pencil so that has been it's been cool yeah. Not permanently I I will concede to have misplaced it but it it does reemerged. Scot: [5:51] That an airpods have this weird like they want to get lots of gaple somehow his program them to is a margin enhancer to get lost as quickly as they possibly can. Jason: [6:02] I'm afraid to even talk about that because my my wife is so much more responsible than me and she's on like her her like 4th or 5th pair and I am still in my originals through some some like and Candy miracle. Scot: [6:15] Goodwill as is our tradition here on the Jason Scott show every year we kick off the new year with a recap of what happened in the last year and then we have our predictions so the predictions are twofold last year about 365 days ago we made a bunch of predictions couldn't remember so it's kind of fun to go back and look at those are super geeky and want to go back that was episode 112. It's a method that means we did 47 shows last year so that's 47 hours roughly of Jason Scott if you if you have a week to burn if you have mono or something like that that you want to recover from and you need something to put you to sleep for 47 hours a week we have your cure so we will be breaking the show into three pieces for going to do kind of a good bad ugly of 2018 and then we can go into recapping our predictions and squirm and then from 2018 and then we're going to put out some 2019 predictions so I think what you'll see from the 28th predictions is we're actually pretty good pretty good at this thing after how long you been at this 3 for years now I think we're getting pretty good on the prediction game. Jason: [7:34] That's easier for you to say than it is for me to say this year but sure. Scot: [7:39] Without further delay let's jump into The Good the Bad and the Ugly Jason what order a couple of your goods from 2018. Jason: [7:46] Yep so I was really excited to see some of the new physical store Concepts and the very end of the year you know Nike open at House of innovation we talked about that in the last show that's super exciting to me I think some of the Amazon Concepts like go and 4-star are are super interesting there's a lot of new physical Marketplace Concepts like we've had beta on the show I've mentioned show failed before and then a lot of these mobile-first stores like the Sam's Club now so I think, the you know we're really starting to see digital Impact Physical stores and drive new store Concepts which is awesome. [8:24] On the platform front I was excited to see Adobe make the big investment in Magento in an e-commerce platform. In many ways I feel like the the commercial platform space in the Enterprise platform space in particular that I play in is kind of. In the worst spot it's been in in 10 years in terms of. You don't really meeting the needs of retailers and clients and there's always been this this conflict between CMS systems that people like Adobe make and commerce platforms that people like. IBM sap in Oracle make in so I'm very optimistic that adobe who who is dominating the CMAs. Essbase then making a significant investment investment in e-commerce you know really could be the way forward for 4. A lot of new new retailers in in Commerce entities that need an enterprise-class system. And I say this with the one caveat Magento as it is is not the solution. [9:33] Adobe's willingness to invest in Magento 2 me is historically a Dobby is always been a. And aggressive acquire that acquired a bunch of stuff and you know it often takes them several years to really integrate the stuff so I'm not expecting Miracles this year per se but in the long run feels like. Adobe deciding that Commerce is an important part of the stack is super exciting and then my my last good for the year. Is kind of specific it was Walmart's investment in Flipkart in the reason I think that is good I think it is super smart for. From Walmart to be aggressively fighting for digital in in the super important Emerging Market in India. Some things happened late last year that make those Investments actually look a little softer is as a Indian regulation on foreign Commerce is has gotten more challenging but the reason I just think it's good overall is. I feel like that investment that huge investment in digital for Walmart you know his is the most. [10:38] Tangible physical manifestation of Walmart's absolute recognition that. Digital is the way forward in the day you know that they have to compete with the Amazon than alibaba's of the world and can't can't abdicate any of that Digital Ground And so seeing them them fight for for that that intellectual property you know I think is a encouraging sign for all of us in the future what about you what would it were you excited about last year Scott. Scot: [11:07] Well I'm always the guy that gets to say it wouldn't be the Jason Scott show without Amazon and Sonos surprised they're my good is crying it out with Amazon so I thought was really interesting than Amazon you mentioned a little bit but they really expanded their store footprint so they had acquired Whole Foods back and 17 which obviously is a big splash into offline and they never really expanded Whole Food stores I mean 2018 was a year of kind of adjusting that that acquisition they announce now they're going to start opening more here in 2019 so that's going to be interesting to see I think the surprise for me in an impossible one was done to go experiments and then just kind of really ramping that up pretty quickly you know I think they built another for 5 is that many more on the way there's rumors of wars and then you're the one thing as I travel around not nearly as much as you but going to various malls and things I would say pretty much every a mall in the US seems to have an Amazon pop-up store and I think about all those people I don't know how many that is it's how many of these are out there but I think if we looked at. [12:23] Your class A malls I think there be three or four hundred of them so I wouldn't be surprised if there was three or four hundred pretty substantial Amazon pop-ups out there so it's I think that's pretty interesting and really is a testament to the Amazon. [12:38] You're expanding into kind of omni-channel world and get their products in front of more people. [12:43] I'm done once asked on the front end of Amazon the back end of Amazon that was really interesting this year was what I would call it start a frenetic expansion of. Delivery capabilities some of this is last mile so they acquire twenty thousand of these Mercedes Sprinter vans I'd be surprised if any listener at least the United States hasn't seen one of these I see you to a date at this point in my area. [13:09] And they built a 1099 Network a very clever way kind of taking a page out of FedEx Grounds Playbook where they were actually kind of put you in the business guarantee you rub you and routes and then boom you're off and running so I think they got those 20,000 sprinters out there delivering packages and something like six months which is just pretty crazy about a lot of soccer capabilities so if you're a third-party now you can use Amazon soccer in your phone at Center and almost be like little extension of FBA Whole Foods we saw them can I ditch instacart and then layer and their their 1099 other 1099 network of Flex for that they've added a ton more jets that got to where are hubs coming and I attractive distribution centers pretty closely so in the USA in 2018 they added 46 more performance center assets and then another 23 in the rest of the world for a total of about 70 I am all in that's an additional 11 million square feet of space that came on line in 2018 and then that adds to the existing 850 or so globally and 250 million square feet so, so it's a lot of people that I always talk to you that the baby not in the industry but on the cusp there always surprise I'll say what how many how many from home as soon as you think Amazon has versus Walmart but they both have 10 and the number I think that's about right with Walmart but Amazon has. [14:34] Tremendous amount of assets they built so it matters it's Amazon a so far ahead of anyone it is going to be interesting to see there. My last surprise was becoming I think the economy did really well last year even the last reported as of December on the job side was really really strong so that we're seeing a strong economy you know as the Fed kind of Titans interest rates in the stock market with a lot of shakiness there but underlying economy. [15:09] Then let's put it in the battle I'll start those so I think the bad was I was so surprised about how kind of negative to Amazon hq2 process turned out, kind of ended in a in a thud you know it wasn't like this kind of I guess unless you're one of the two cities I think they're. Pretty excited but even then there's a lot of protesting going on in the DC New York area that Amazon's coming and then it got these really big incentives so yeah I think that's going to be interesting to watch and see what happens as Amazon is so large now that they can't just fly under the radar and I think they managed the back of that process kind of weirdly not where it seems like everyone that are decided and then and then it's kind of pain a conspiracy theory if you believe that they were just Gathering data from people what I'm concerned about a little bit you and I emailed about this just recently I kind of put it in the bad category in this is holiday 2018. I'm so Adobe came out a couple days ago what their final report they said the holiday came in at 14%. That's e-commerce so Little Debbie disappointing if that's true then you send me some data that showed MasterCard said all in 5.1 I guess you know this better than I do dinner or else was right around there and set right would that be kind of a win or a loss of your. Jason: [16:30] Yet so for all of retail that's that that's probably a win it's a little better than the recent historical averages but I think the. That does averages hide the fact that you know it just was not equal 4 for all retailers and inside I definitely think there are winners and losers. Scot: [16:54] Yeah unfortunately don't think we'll know until Amazon reports there they're kind of the Bellwether I look at and you know, Indus. Where they would have pre-announced if they had missed so they haven't said anything unfortunately Apple did pronounce look like they had a really rough calendar Q4 I believe it's there there theraphysical q1i which is always confusing what companies do it that way but that seems to be isolated to China with some of the tariffs and things in the Chinese economy that that I don't think we'll Amazon has as much exposure to just really interesting to see where holiday 18 and zup and I think we'll know what covered on the show as we always do I think we'll know by that first week in February however all the all the leaves fell and and what happened. Jason: [17:41] Yeah I'm looking forward to seeing how that all plays out so some of my bads. Didn't get a ton of Buzz last year but I've been pretty disappointed in the outcome of the Supreme Court ruling regarding a internet sales tax and so you know, basically the Supreme Court rule made a ruling in favor of a state that was suing to collect sales tax on. An internet sales in Oxy like I'm okay with. People having to pay sales tax for other online purchases I'm I actually think in general rather be Universal pricing and in. You know you buy from the same retail online or in the store you want to see the same price and and that's a lot to be taxed in a similar way the reason I say that the ruling was bad is. Because a bunch of the ramifications of the way this particular ruling plays out it just creates a lot of uncertainty in friction in the e-commerce space and so. Which states you actually need to collect sales tax in which they tax you definitely don't need to collect sales tax in and which states. You may or may not get sued by a state if you don't collect sales tax in right now is kind of. [19:02] Thrown up in the air and it creates a lot of inconsistency and just a lot of. A sort of effort and friction that isn't helping anyone and so I feel like there was opportunity for for Congress to solve this problem before dumping in the lap of the Supreme Court's and. You know maybe that was overly optimistic so didn't happen until we're going to have to let this play out for now a number of years and. Just like the unfortunate the other sort of bad one to me this year is we had some kind of ugly CEO exit so you know what we forgot about that this far end up but we had. You know the very ugly exit at Lululemon. [19:44] Early in the year I want to see February he was he was the CEO and chairman and got kind of forced out and he's now been. In an irritant for them on an ongoing basis you know Mickey Drexler was. Lasted less than a year of J.Crew and you know maybe not CEO of all but you know I see you judge executive term for some bad reasons it Nike. And so you know that certainly to me as one of the the the bad blemishes on on 2018 from a Commerce perspective. [20:19] And then my my ugly if we give it to the the really bad stuff for 2018 I just think it what I mean you're always going to have churning in retail stores are always going to have, bankruptcies Doug mcmillon famous what he carries around this west of the top 10. [20:36] Can retailers from my 1980 and there aren't a lot of those names that are that are still in business today so bankruptcies are in a shock but I feel like. 2018 hits is particularly hard with Toys R Us and Sears and then you know below them you had all these other guys David's Bridal Mattress Firm Brookstone Nine West Claire's Gymboree bonds. Etc and so you know as a lover of Commerce and Retail and sorry to see some of those stories brands. [21:07] You don't go away or get greatly diminished so that's only felt ugly and then right towards the end of the year, we had a IBM sell their big Enterprise e-commerce platform Webster Commerce to US service provider HCL, that to me is a probably super ugly for IBM clients that are relying on that platform and. You know now it's fragmented from the rest of the IBM stacked and there's going to be a bunch of challenges there there's a bunch of clients that own the or just moving to the. The cloud version of Webster Commerce which they didn't sell so that seems ugly I just feel like the the Enterprise Commerce platform space. In general is in a bad space and it's most manifested by by IBM which was you know one of the top three platforms are arguably the top platform getting kind of dumped by IBM this year. Scot: [22:08] Call yeah I'm going to plus one or as my kids would say retweet on the bankruptcies that tear you when was painfully know is that it is a kid that grew up Star Wars fan I spent many a midnight madness so you know. Jedi Friday or whatever the column hanging out in t r u so that was disappointing then you. Add insult to injury one of the shopping center if we go to a lot had a combined Tru Babies R Us like a huge one it just sitting there empty for the last last three or four months is kind of sad. Yeah I kind of say you know in this top of the mall Denton, so interesting stat here that came out towards the end of the year. I mentioned it, he did pretty well but malls were there emptiest in six years from a tenancy standpoint no foot traffic is also down at malls this company RI sorry is I had a report that said that they're at an 8.6% vacancy. [23:05] Again that's the highest it's been in 6 years and that represents 4 million square foot is the most available square footage in malls and then strip malls have been hit chick really bad because you know I think Toys R Us is really kind of one of those strip-mall type stores that it was an anchor for a lot of strip malls and and as we see in the enclosed malls when she loosened his anchors you get up into this death spiral kind of situation so I would also Echo that on the ugly side cool so so that was kind of the what was sawed in 2018 let's put it to our predictions in and see if how Clairvoyant we were on condos so I went back to Good Ol episode 112 and service predictions I'll go to mine and then you go to yours and then what kind of see how he did sue her quickly I had five predictions and a bonus so number one Mulligan 2.0 in 2017 we saw 7,000 stores closed and I said it's going to accelerate into 2018. [24:05] I ended up with 9,000 closures then my second prediction was that Amazon will not buy another retailer this doesn't seem like people may think well why would you say that it's kind of obvious but back then we were on the heels of the Whole Foods acquisition in a lot of Wall Street analyst for like issuing those reports you know Costco's Definitely Maybe the next company know it's Nordstrom's know its Target so that's that was kind of the backdrop. Predictions is really say these guys are off base I just don't think Amazon's could do anything big again in 2018, in the corollary to that was that they would instead of doing that they would triple down on private label. [24:44] Third prediction I ripped my prediction on Amazon Logistics they would be competing more squarely with FedEx ups and then number for this one turned out, pretty good I said Walmart will make big m&a instacart Postmates and eBay so, playing on Marketplace and last-mile their number 5 and said somebody would acquire magenta or they would go. And then my bonus was the Amazon would come out with Alexa powered, your butt's so I mentioned airpods the topless show I love my airpods but I am not a huge Siri fan and I everyday I wish Alexa what would hang out on my airpods instead of Siri so that was the Genesis of that production Warrior 2018 predictions. Jason: [25:30] Yep so I also had five in the bonus the first one was the grocery would get heavily disrupted by digital I think I called out specifically that would be wed by curbside pickup. Number two was the drug would get the heavily disrupted by digital, number three I said the biggest train would be talking about in 2018 was what I called that AI gap which was kind of, the difference between the big players that could take full advantage of AI in the smaller players that couldn't necessarily afford to do it as quickly, predictions for was voice I said it's going to continue to be huge and grow quickly but not for Commerce. And then my V prediction was mobile payments was digital wallets I said a bunch of them with. I said Starbucks Walmart and Amazon when continue to thrive but a bunch of the other ones women's and, snarky side note I mentioned that I expected Bitcoin to tank and then my bonus was. Close to the same as yours I I said that I thought the Amazon would come out with a wearable in 28. Scot: [26:42] What did you what you mean by Rebel. Jason: [26:45] Army night. Your paws were the most likely scenario but I just felt like they would find some way to get Alexa on on your body and especially because they lack the phone that seems like. You don't like it could be some kind of widget that you you clip to your clothing or or carry with you but but or I wear something like that but I guess my biggest expectation was that it would be your pot. And we will talk about the results of that moment early but I want to start off by breaking down how well you did so now that we reminded everyone what we thought 2018 would look like in the beginning of 2018 let's see how we actually did so your first prediction was the store Mulligan what do you think. Scot: [27:38] Yeah I'm going to because I put a specific number in there of 9,000 I I I missed that one turns out it took me a while to find the state looks like there was 6235 closures in hindsight what I should have done and there's no good data set for this is looked at the square footage of so you know when I don't know when a mattress firm closes that's different than a Sears or JCPenney are Toys R Us closing right is this really the square footage we care about so I would argue I would throw myself at the feet of the judges and say look at miss the number of stores but I think if you look at kind of what did clothes and yours juices rundown of store closures in 2018 Toys R Us 735, Walgreens 600 n Taylor Loft Dress Barn 500 Teavana 379 Best Buy 250 Mattress Firm 200 Gap 200 Children's Place 144 Footlocker 110 Kmart 109 Gymboree 102 and then let's goes It goes from there another kind of big square footage when Sam's Club 63 how big is a Sam's Club like two hundred thousand. Jason: [28:49] 100 weeks but yeah. Scot: [28:50] Honored yet so there's enough so it's all right I think if we looked as square footage I bet and I don't have a source for this unfortunately I have heard that the there was way more square footage in 2018 so. Who does if you want to hold it till I rely on the stop. Jason: [29:08] Yeah I'm actually giving you that one because I would, went out do I call the sources we do have the track store closures none of them claim or try to be comprehensive so they're they're tracking stores in a particular category or that made a particular criteria and saying they close that many but none of them for example are trying to keep track of. Potentially how many mom-and-pop closed or those sorts of things and even there are a couple of sources of square footage in your right the square footage is more dramatic because we had closure is it a lot of big stores but even the square footage tend to be like. People that are attacking mob a square footage in what the closures are so I just I don't think there is a definitive number but I think the spirit of your prediction came to pass and I think was the. The biggest shrinkage of a store for stores in in recent memory. Scot: [29:59] Colton so we'll call that one in the sky cam. Jason: [30:05] For sure so your second prediction Amazon will not buy another offline retailer and you said they'd triple down on private label so pretty with B, and I prediction but but I actually. I liked it so how do you think you did. Scot: [30:24] Predictions so obviously I didn't make another big acquisition of an offline retailer in it you know the trouble down on private label I think maybe they even quadruple down that it's hard to get data on the cell to does a good job and then we had some other data folks 10:10 to concentrate on the show and you know I think if you could attract our conversations on the show or the squeeze 7 episodes the second half of 18 we were spending a lot of time talking about Amazon 3rd party because it's probably the number one thing on retailers and Brands mines you know so so so I would call this definitely something that happened there. Jason: [31:12] That for sure, annoyingly totally giving it to you so 242 so far your third prediction which I touch you like is your annual protection, is the Amazon Logistics. Scot: [31:30] Yeah and this one's kind of squishy so I'm going to kind of say this was a zero so my mind we won't cross this one until I can ship a product on Amazon like I would FedEx from point A to point B. So I think it's become insanely cleared everyone that this is what they're building now so I think everyone is kind of, in fact if you if you go look at a FedEx stock chart and you'll see they had a number of issues with the terrorist it help them it would not, listen to their conference call their CEO and founder Fred Smith, you got a little agitated by a kind of the fifth or sixth Amazon question that he got so I think it's become pretty apparent everyone would Amazon's doing here and the the ball is no longer hidden the cards are on the table and who knows maybe 2019 will be that year when we can ship a product Coast to Coast for $3 on Amazon. Jason: [32:31] Yeah for sure so I'm sort of with you I feel like they made a lot of progress in that direction seems like you need to be something that will happen but but you don't get full credit for this year so if only because I need to keep the predictions competitive, so your fourth prediction was the Amazon the ad group we get so large that they would have to break out there the revenue separately and that people would be totally shocked how how big they got so quickly. Scot: [33:04] Yeah and so did this is a win they didn't have to break it out like they do AWS work so I could separate kind of reporting piano but they have had to break it out because it has been so large they created this they when they announced the quarter last year they said going forward they would change the way they recorded stuff. Unfortunately they stopped recording a lot of my favorite stuff which was kind of sad so they used to have this interesting breakdown between him and some things that have gone away now but when they did that they did start to break out category called other and everyone knows that that's like 99% and so and it has gotten quite large so you'll hear me talk a little bit more about that in 2019 president. Jason: [33:50] Yeah and you don't even though you're bad at reading predictions and you put that highly specific thing in there that didn't happen I'm totally giving this one to you like for people that haven't lived through the industry in last year people are not talking about Amazon's ad Revenue in January of last year in you don't even like the Scott Galloway's of the world that like make a living. Making predictions and then you know reminding everyone when they're right he wrote a book that you don't Amazon with 1/4 of the book and he barely mentioned advertising in that book in like, July and so for you back in January to have said hey there ads is going to be this big thing and it was going to be shocked when they find out how big it was and then you know last June and then again in October when they you know, showed how fast that was growing and everyone's exactly talking about that I feel like you you basically put the words right in there was a mouth so I'm totally giving you credit for that but you still ain't get one point for it so so you're three or four running into to your V prediction which was that. Annoying Walmart will make a big MMA and you mentioned some some last-mile candidates. Scot: [35:08] Yeah. Jason: [35:09] How you did Scott. Scot: [35:10] I'll give you sixteen Billy syneresis flag, Walmart acquired what card it was not one of the ones that predicted but. You know I probably should have so it was my my set up on this one going back then was, it's not like Walmart had all this pressure you know that they had to get in the game with with Amazon more and I was thinking Last Mile but it totally makes sense on their National side as well so that was, clearly a good call to kind of read the tea leaves on that one. Jason: [35:48] Yeah that was totally good and then annoyingly even though they were only supposed to be 5 predictions you did 1/6 prediction and you know to be annoyingly for me cuz I I'm I have this one-sided rivalry when I'm trying to compete with you I believe your 6 prediction was that a Dobby would acquire Magento for 1.6 billion dollars. Scot: [36:07] It wasn't that accept fake but it was that someone would acquire Majin to or they would go public so so there you know so having been on the other side of this when when you get to a certain scale as a startup in the magenta got through some complicated things but they're effectively a start up again right there an independent entity they had a private equity the clock starts ticking was what I was thinking and what that clock means is that investor wants their money back and he's private Equity guys BC's want a 10-year Horizon private equities like two or three that was kind of feeding into that prediction and then you know it's also on the other side it's. Musical chairs you know so so everyone every big cloud he's going to want to have a great platform and it just felt like there was. One chair left in and kind of two Cloud companies that wanted to sit in that chair so so that's what it said in the so happy that I read those tea leaves right as well. Jason: [37:07] What congratulations so recap five out of six right and then you did do the bonus one and that was the Amazon would have an airpod like headphones they and what it what do you want to say about that stuff. Scot: [37:23] So my strategy here is it's easy to call this when the wind because you had the same one so your Prime. So Amazon specifically didn't get released this but this is actually my son was looking for some new headphones so we went to, I would assume next to the derelict Toys'R'Us I mentioned earlier and I was surprised I'm a big I'm listening I'm on the show right now with some qc35 from Bose and I looked and it said now featuring Alexa and I was like what the heck, this is awesome now Alexa is in the Bose headphones then I went over to the job or display and it said now featuring Alexa then I went over to like two other kind of you know generic style things and literally as I backed up and looked at the row of headphones every single pair suddenly I had Alexa so what's happened is Amazon has issued an API or some kind of capability in a very strategically work with a lot of these manufacturers and unbeknownst to me until now literally like January 2nd when we were born in some. [38:29] Best Buy gift cards they are there are a lot of airpod like Technologies and and you have every configuration headphone you can imagine with Alexa now and I play with it it's actually exactly how I want it to be so on my Gadget which list is I am hoping that somehow these Bose headphones I have break and that I can. Get a new pair with Alexa or maybe I need to go check and see if I can retro them to have Alexa probably not try some kind of I'm sure there's some. Gizmo this to make me buy a new car. Jason: [39:02] Yea though I can certainly help you with the accidental breakage problem when I see you in in New York in a couple weeks but yeah yeah same boat I I'm not giving it either this credit for this cuz the Amazon didn't didn't actually, come out with an Amazon branded product but what did happen I can't remember the exact date like August or September they did finally release exactly as you suggested an API that made it totally possible for OEM to build Alexa into the headphones and you can imagine folks are doing it right then but then even a bigger deal one of the big chip manufacturers in November started shipping a new Bluetooth chipset the included that capability and access to that API in the chips at so you're already seeing a bunch of announcements that's before. Brands had the opportunity to build new products with this new Bluetooth chipset my expectation is I'm going to show up in Las Vegas tomorrow and there are going to be Bluetooth products with an Alexa embedded in them coming out of my ears with early. So I think we yeah we may have missed The Branding on that one but the floodgates are about to open up and not one of my predictions but sidenote like I think everyone's noticed that. [40:24] Airpods have been Apple's most successful product in The Last 5 Years and you know the. The Amazon Alexa family's been the most successful Consumer Electronic it in The Last 5 Years, I'll be shocked if we don't see apple Google and Amazon directly battling it out with smart smart earbuds this year. Scot: [40:44] Cool one of the one of the many Jason Scott show interns just handed me a note it looks like I can upgrade my headphones with firmware so we're going to stop a show right now. Jason: [40:58] We're not going to stop at but you may not hear Scott anymore cuz he's going to like drop by the audio. Scot: [41:03] I'm going to be upgrading my firmware while Jason finishes the wrestler show speaking of Jason let's go through your predictions so what was my score so was it 5 out of 7. Jason: [41:13] I forgot I forgot what it was I'm giving you five out of six we're not counting the bone. Scot: [41:18] Okay but I think that helps you but I'm okay with. Jason: [41:21] Well but we're also the setting it was the same bonus oh. Scot: [41:24] Okay so your first one was grocery gets disrupted by digital led by curbside pickup listeners will longtime listeners will know that is your favorite. Grocery solution digital grocery doubles in the US at least one delivery firm Peters out. Jason: [41:41] Yep so, I'm calling out a window side note I have come to realize that I hate my predictions from last year and because I just, put them badly like they're too subjective and in many cases like hard to measure so at one of my New Year's resolution is to write better predictions and we'll find out how very shortly. Scot: [42:05] It's easy to say you hate them in January of 2019. Jason: [42:08] Yeah for sure for sure but but I do think the sentiment of this when like was wildly true Walmart ruled after I pick up to 2,000 stores that over 40% e-commerce growth every quarter this year which is wildly faster than last year is faster than Amazon Kroger get a bunch of their own curbside pickup called quick list but a bigger deal they did an exclusive partnership with Arcado the biggest digital Grocer in UK Albertsons made a bunch of big Investments they both announced that they were going to watch the first digital grocery Marketplace and they also announced that they were going to build dedicated micro fulfillment centers out of the backs of a bunch of the Albertsons stores our friends at shoptalk launched a dedicated digital grocery show called grocery talk and it's sold out with 3,000 attendees in the first year you know you go internationally and the the Ali Baba concept hammer and the JD concept 7 fresh are going nuts I think it's it's a safe and fair to say digital grocery blew up even even though. You know I mean I have perfectly nailed the specifics and again there's no perfect metric but it does appear that digital grocery more than doubled in the US. Scot: [43:28] Wood shed delivery from Peter. Jason: [43:30] Yeah that's the part where I sort of depends on how you count right like you could argue that like one that got acquired like shipped for example. Scot: [43:42] Oh that's like tripled. Jason: [43:44] Not with any retailer besides Target. And I think I mean you know there's there's something there on the ropes a little bit but yeah that was a dumb part of the prediction so you can you're going to trust me anyway so don't you don't need a whole night. Scot: [44:00] Oh when writing predictions don't don't like a daisy chain hands together because. Jason: [44:06] When specifics yeah yeah. 2 + 1 is that is that I'm one-for-one right now feel free to stop listening to schoenauer. Scot: [44:17] Okay the judges give you that one okay because we're going to flip your aunt's to Anor and give you one there alright your second prediction was drugs get disrupted by digital. Jason: [44:30] Yeah and I mean a few things did happen that are interesting Amazon invested a billion dollars in pillpack they wash their first over-the-counter brand basic care they partnered to do that like at home medical devices under the choice brand of course there's this big joint health care venture between Amazon Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan but to me none of that adds up to a true disruption yet and I I mean I think there's some is there a lot of interesting tea leaves to read this year but I'm I'm not going to argue that I should get a point there. Scot: [45:12] All right and then your third prediction was the biggest trend of 2018 will be the AI Gap. Jason: [45:21] So once again a stupid prediction how do you argue something is or isn't the biggest Trend but I think it's safe to say this wasn't so I kind of miss this one like you know I do think. Aai was one of the hype things that got a lot of chatter in 2018 and there was one IPO that you could argue with sort of AI Commerce which is Stitch fix realistically like I didn't I don't think we saw a i dramatically transformed any retailers and so my my way more specific prediction that. Did the it would open a gap between the big retailers in the little retailers why I just don't think it's fair to say that happened so that was a dumb prediction and I'm I'm not one for 3. Scot: [46:06] Okay I'll see how you did a number for you said his voice is going to be huge but not for Commerce. Jason: [46:14] Yeah so again based on my fragile ego I feel like this one is climbing out of the hole a little bit I do think of voice was huge I think Amazon alone has said they sold over a hundred million devices now it's their best-selling device on all their big days that there's some by some metrics Google is actually. Selling more devices in the last couple quarters than Amazon I'm not sure I totally believe that but but I do believe they're selling a bunch of devices as well until for sure, voice over all was huge and I think even more clearly voice commerce was not there was some some data that came out in the third quarter that said that less than 2% of people that own smart speakers that ever tried to do Commerce with it feel like the only only even moderate volume, Commerce type applications were things like a Starbucks in the Uber for sure people are not ordering things with. Complicated attributes and in promo codes via there their voice devices self. Again I'm going to take the win there and which would put me at 2 for 4. Scot: [47:32] Does that hundred million devices suppression. Jason: [47:36] No because I mean some very low-cost devices we haven't talked that an issue I don't think that they now even have like and you can frequently get devices free and as part of bundles but they never liked him $19 device that you can plug into any speaker. And so they they just have all the price points in there you know there, is you highlighted there a huge advertising platform than one of that biggest biggest media platforms on the on the planet and they generally dedicate about half of all their pixels to selling this stuff so I mean. Today I am not shocked they sold that many devices if you if you ask me in a 3 years ago when they started this stuff if they would get there this past I probably would have said that shot. Scot: [48:21] So just like one way I think about this is probably 80% domestic 20% International I don't think they push the Alexa stuff is hard International so then to the pilot 89 us net, that article is totally undermined right is global High thing. Jason: [48:40] Yeah I think that was a global number. Scot: [48:42] There's three hundred and fifty people are in the US 250 households 200 million households. Jason: [48:51] Little north of 200. Scot: [48:52] Yes it was just going to round numbers 200 million households 80 million devices there's going to be some like your house that has 30 devices but that's like we on this Edge Neo so you know call it's approaching half us households have an Alexa device that's pretty amazing. Jason: [49:13] Yeah for sure but it is I feel like it is pres been on them like they're lots of devices that get to that. That 50% market share eventually and it depends on the technology took a long time but I do think one of the ramifications of the like modern digital era is. That all of this happens much faster so you know it. Adoption of new things just happens much more quickly than it did in the ear of radio or TV and so you know smart speakers, you know followed a similar trajectory to a lot of those other media technologies that they just did it in a way I can press time. Scot: [49:47] God I wish I could give you two on this one but it's been our custom to just give one point prediction so sorry. Jason: [49:53] Yeah totally totally fair. Scot: [49:56] Then your payments so you said retail die. And Bitcoin tanks so you didn't and in there. Jason: [50:11] So like you got him like me for my poor Boolean logic and again stupidly written like I call that some specific digital wallets that were the exceptions and those exceptions large we did really well Starbucks did very well on there some evidence that Walmart did well Amazon you know his continuing to thrive is a digital wallet I didn't spell out the digital wallets that wouldn't do well but in my mind there were two families of those there's Apple and Google which, like all indications are are pretty flat so there are people using them in liking them but it but it does not appear that they're growing particularly fast and it doesn't appear that they're getting as much reuse as, I'm sure they would hope so so our friends over it payments that that track this like it kind of found ample in Google to be flat and then there was this whole genre of digital wallets from financial institutions so specific Banks like Chase and Citibank and the card issuers like MasterCard and visa and. [51:13] Yeah none of those digital wallets are used by anyone that's not a family member of the company so I do feel like that that is fair and then stupidly put a hand in there 4 Bitcoin that had nothing to do with digital wallet so I have no idea why I did that but that is arguably, my best prediction of the entire thing because I think Bitcoin was at $16,000 a coin and in that is the beginning of January that you wanted me to prediction and today it's at about 3:36 hundred bucks so it's basically a quarter of its its former value so if you if you wanted to invest in any prediction in this entire, in N last year's entire show the most money you could have made was to take my advice and short bed. Scot: [51:59] Unless you were a Magento investor. Are Flipkart okay and then finally you said Amazon will come out in the wearable and I think you have already dismissed. Jason: [52:14] Yeah yeah thank you you are to cover that one so so I think you add all that up I'm I'm three out of five you're for it at 5 but with a like a much richer more impressive for. Scot: [52:26] Cool thank you I appreciate the kikuta sir I think you did a good job but hopefully you learned some some important lessons about writing your predictions and let's let's jump into that you want to go first you want me to go first. Jason: [52:39] I want to go first, before you jump in and in case we have any that overlap. Scot: [52:45] Are you good for. Jason: [52:46] So my first prediction is that Eddie Lampert is not going to launch a space exploration company. Wait wait that's all right so cheating just making fun of your negative predictions but I do like that one if anyone wants to keep it as my bonus my first one I guess I'm trying to have more measurable objective things I think continuing the the evolution of Amazon's brick-and-mortar I think Amazon is going to have more than a thousand brick-and-mortar stores by the end of this year, combination of goes Whole Foods in some other expansion of bookstore Concepts but a thousand stores is a very meaningful brick-and-mortar retailers so if you go to like the the NRF top list of retailers and you sort it by number of stores a thousand stores makes you about the the 67th, largest retailer in the US by number of stores and so in addition to all the other areas where Amazon's excelling in. And dominating I feel like eating that thousands door threshold like definitely makes you as usually credible brick-and-mortar retailer and I think they're going to get there this year. Scot: [54:04] Do you want to throw and and in there about. Jason: [54:07] And Eddie Lampert is not going to want to space exploration. Scot: [54:10] Okay alright I almost got that in here. Jason: [54:14] So then my new strategy is just to take your predictions that didn't happen from the year before and doubled down on them. So you last year said Walmart was going to make a big acquisition and you highlighted some of the last mile companies and you got credit for the making the big acquisition but it wasn't the last mile company, I think they're going to fulfill the other half of your prediction this year and actually buy a Last Mile company. And that's potentially potentially instacart Postmates taskrabbit but I also think something like that. Adda live wood would totally toy fit in there so I'm I'm sure we'll see Walmart both organically grow and acquire. Let more last-mile capability this year. [55:07] Number 3 I am sad to say based on our previous conversations but I I think we are going to see another big beloved brand go bankrupt this year so I actually think. In any way I do I told you I think that it was an unexpectedly good economy this year. I am not as confident that we're going to sustain that for all of 2019 and there are you know it again I think that the the booming economy hasn't been. Equally generous to all retailer so I do think there's some retards have had a tough going and I think as both get tightened a little bit that potential will be the last. The last straw so you know I certainly think the department stores. You know is a vulnerable category United by JCPenney certainly is vulnerable I think any of the category killers that used to win based on assortment you know aren't winning an assortment anymore do the online so you know that could be one of the. The Office Products companies are Bed Bath & Beyond or some of those guys and you know when we talk about department stores. You don't one super story brand in the US that you like I think is has a bunch of money a bunch of. Debt due in 2019 and seemed to be having some some substantial disagreements with her creditors at the moment is Neiman Marcus so I would be sad to see them go but it seems like. [56:35] Like they're going to have to do pretty well tough to forestall that so I'm afraid we'll see another another big bankruptcy this year. Scot: [56:43] How many demons are there are they only like four big cities room. Jason: [56:47] So it's not a huge footprint unless it's 40 spores and they own a couple other Concepts as well but yeah. Scot: [56:57] Predictions for 4. Jason: [56:59] I feel like I might have made a similar version of this before but the. I'm bringing it back so mobile the mobile Gap getting narrower is my is my official predictions I think aided by a progressive web apps and payment API we are going to see. Mobile really catch up to desktop in terms of conversion rate and also total sale so I guess I'll see you in my dreams specific prediction is. That we have more mobile Commerce than desktop Commerce in if you take out tablets in 29th. Scot: [57:40] And then last but not least. Jason: [57:42] Yeah I'm taking you or negative predictions to the extreme and I'm just saying there's a bunch of pads that I don't think will will. Be significant and in 2019 the first one is still going to be hyped this year and still going to be a fad. I actually don't think there's going to be a ton of like customer-facing AI experiences or are frankly even way better personalization experiences in 2019. I think we will see more more chatter around social commerce but it's still not going to catch on. I don't think going to see any meaningful Traction in in VR for Commerce. And I certainly don't think blockchain is going to be a very important element for most of Commerce so that you know there's the ones you you all of those Technologies are ones you hear people talk about a lot and. Like I frequently intended rough drafts of retail Trends decks with all these things in a minute I just don't think any of them are going to be very Signet. Scot: [58:44] Any any bonuses you want to put on there. Jason: [58:47] I do the you talk about Amazon being forced to break out their ad Revenue do I actually think they're going to get forced to break out the revenue related to Prime Membership. And I hope that happens cuz I think it would be super interesting to see what percentage of. Of their their sales come from Prime and and you don't total total Prime Revenue in those sorts of things would be fascinating to know. Scot: [59:15] Did you include, like a whole p&l there or just really Prime revenue and sales around Prime. Jason: [59:22] Yeah I don't know how specific I want to get on bonus I don't think I official purposes I won't say piano but I hope that they have to get as granny or as. Using Prime members as a segment for reporting Revenue. So that's what I got hopefully it's better than last year hopefully I am I'm not getting. I hope I am enjoying next year's version of the show more than I did this year's but the time we're finally to the part that I'm really looking forward to which is what Nostradamus thinks is going to happen for next year so Scott what do we got. Scot: [1:00:00] Yeah it's always hard to follow up on him set up pretty good predictions and if you like last year the, the chessboard was more clearly laid out for me than it is this year and and the the tilt of the board is really hard so you know we're coming off a year where the economy was smoking and wages are going up but then we have a lot of changes in the political scene there's lots of talk of impeachment there's like all kinds of craziness the garments closes record this really hard to know which way the economy is going. But you know whenever I'm on kind of the fence on these things I tend to be an optimist so it's my heart for real blood so I'm going to lean towards the positive side of things I think you know hopefully we navigate to all that I know, Tailwind of a good economy in 2019 as an industry which I think we all agree would be good so. My first prediction so following on that optimystix thing by first one's kind of negative so like you I agree we haven't seen you know. [1:01:06] The end of this kind of I think it's a Dominos that are falling and I don't think a lot of people even kind of put that together yet so like you seen Sears file Chapter 11 I don't think many stores come out of that I think we're down to a handful of Sears that's going to put pressure on malls I think that puts more pressure on JCPenney. If you look there stocks already down from for $2. The other two are heading into a delisting scenario below a dollar I don't know what's going on with their creditors but all these old-school guys Leverage. So you get into the stuff spiral it sure does feel like JCPenney's stuck into that. Spiral they have 860 stores. [1:01:45] Macy's is Macy's is doing really well today, but once you get stuck into this kind of swirling drain of mall-based retail it's really hard to get out of there and I do worry that they kind of there a domino that falls in there. [1:02:01] I've already closed some stores to trim their footprint and their 660 more so I don't think they would do bankruptcy everything but I think they may have to sell some of those stores are closing so I'm going to say at least 5,000 more stores and if we can ever find the square footage I think it'll be, about as bad as 2019 so I think 2017-18 was a huge step up 8 1617 and 17 18 wheeler big steps up I think we'll go sideways which is still going to be pretty bad though because that step up Rick kind of this 5000 larger stores whatever the equivalent Sopranos that I do believe was larger than 2017 just my first pregnancy second one is you know your your buddy Scott Galway also known as Professor go away he is really big on TV telling everyone that the government's Crackdown on Amazon and for some spin-off AWS he's backed off that a little bit and now he's talking about well maybe they'll have to have tracking stock I'm going to predict this is one of my anti production so you can Amazon doesn't do those things but this will be the year that they know that adds does get broken out and I'll be specific here as its own p&l kind of line out of the bath report because when I kind of build a spreadsheet and it got to take. Cloud stuff which is AWS and how I think adds is growing and I think. [1:03:30] Off the record I think you for ads will probably do as much as the rest of 2018 which is going to blow people's minds but it makes total sense, me and probably you cuz that's what you would do if you were brand new grass is so when I put in a spreadsheet and track them I believe it's going to be about the same size as AWS by like 20 22 or 23 1 and I've seen a couple of Reports say the same thing, that is my second prediction and just to recap it again they're going to have to break out they won't and I put an end in here in tribute to. To Jason they're not going to spin or tracking stock AWS but they will have to break out ads. What's your prediction is I think too kind of the companies out there and I've talked about Amazon and it's in the ones that are struggling on Mosside you have kind of eBay and Alibaba they had come like what I would call up computer in 2018 it is kind of you know it wasn't a great year it wasn't a bad year but they both had they have type beat up over the last year at least companies both have leaders that they want to grow and be aggressive, I feel like something's going to happen there and when I kind of think about it I've always thought this would be a perfect kind of combination so these these two companies just feel like they belong together to me so I'm going to call that there is going to be a combination there. [1:04:52] Number for and I know she didn't really make platform prediction the last platform that last chair kind of out there is Shopify now all the cloud and infection on this all all the cloud guys seem to have kind of bed on their platform rent and I will get them all but I think, so then you may be single who's left by like a Shopify and then another footnote is shopify's really expensive assets oh yeah honest AC it's like for 5 billion dollars but it has to be small revenue is going to use super high valuation so whoever buys this that really kind of limits the number of companies that buy it has to be super my prediction here is you have the ad platforms and specifically I'm thinking Google and Facebook, they're just getting pummeled right now on the ad side from data collection and and you know all the things about Russia hacking and all this in front of Congress just getting beat up I think if I had 100% of my revenue from ads and I was one of those two companies I would be willing to spend a very large sum to diversify That rumney Base because I do think that business model is going to be under external pressures for a while to mow predictions I think that last seat is taken by either fat Facebook or Google. [1:06:14] To be an ally bother someone so I'm not to be super specific there but I do think Shopify gets taken out this year and my sis production is kind of an opposite one of you so we're going to misaligned on this one I think Walmart has made a couple a lot of big bets over the last year and it's just really hard to get all this right so so spending that much on Flipkart I think Amazon shareholder base is in Amazon Walmart shoulder base isn't Amazon shareholder base and I think they look at that and they're kind of like scratching their head and thinking wow I could open a lot more stores I could then X Y and Z you could have written a dividend check so that they have a much different old school master bass been Amazon does and I think that's going to put pressure on them this year so it's a, prediction is that they're going to stumble so I think their growth rates going too slow I think they got a lot of early wins from Anna digitalizing the groceries I think a lot of those are one-time pops and, they are going to get stuck in that to keep that growth up at that and I'm north of what they said 30 40%. [1:07:18] They have to do some big m&a Flipkart has to go right zlata has to go right there and I don't think we have that flexibility to navigate to that I think they're going to have a run, I don't want that to happen so let me be clear I don't want that to happen I just think it's the natural progression of these things when you have a year where you put a bunch of bats on the table, your tab another year we're not all those bets are going to go well and truly they they're probably brace for that I think. [1:07:46] It's not going to be there nothing about a business or anything but it is going to be a tough year for them I think I'll do a cover set. Jason: [1:07:53] Interesting well I think that's a terrific sort of spectrum of predictions between the two of us and that is going to be a perfect place to leave it in the reason I say that is because we always right these show outline that we intend to be 30 45 minutes and I believe I predicted this show would be 70 minutes and right now we're at 67 minutes so I'm calling it I can be right about one thing it's how long the show is but if you are disappointed that we could have shortened you there was something you wanted to discuss that we didn't get to or you have any questions about the show or ideas for future shows feel free to keep the dialogue going on Facebook you can jump on their pop a question will be happy to chat with you as always we greatly appreciate those five star reviews on iTunes that's a wonderful belated Christmas present to Scott or I so feel free to the jump on there and we would greatly appreciate it. Scot: [1:08:52] Thanks everyone for joining so hope you enjoyed the first show 2019 happy New Year and we look forward to spending 2019 with you talking about what's going on in e-commerce retail and the rest of e-commerce insurance. Jason: [1:09:08] Absolutely and so until next time happy commercing.

On the debut episode of Long Story Short, Bobbi sits with retail and brand industry titan, Millard Drexler. Chances are at some point, you've worn a piece of clothing that was Millard's idea. He's responsible for the success of such iconic brands as J.Crew, Gap, Banana Republic, and Old Navy just to name a few.Millard's knowledge and industry savvy is so sought after, that Steve Jobs recruited him when he had a little idea for a brick and mortar store where you can shop for apple products. Together they designed what would later become the iconic Apple Store. The experience you have when walking through an Apple store, a Gap store, a J.Crew store or even an Old Navy store is largely due to the mind of Millard Drexler and how he designs the retail shopping experience.We're taking your questions! Ask Bobbi anything you like and send her an email at askbobbibrown@gmail.com. We'll be sure to answer in our upcoming shows!

Bobbi Brown will inspire you with conversations with some of the most amazing people that she's met through out her incredible career. Everyone has a story and Bobbi will delve deep with each one of her guests to hear all about them. Look for chats with Mickey Drexler, Elvis Duran, Bridget Moynahan, Jen Atkin, Connie Britton and more!We're taking your questions! Ask Bobbi anything you like and send her an email at askbobbibrown@gmail.com. We'll be sure to answer in our upcoming shows!

AYR CEO Maggie Winter learned retail basics from Mickey Drexler and started a brand with the backing of Bonobos founder Andy Dunn. Here's how she channeled that knowledge into a modern DTC brand.

Dan and Lauren are back (again) after an extended break to discuss the Mickey Drexler era at J.Crew, how its new CEO can save the brand, and Apple's brand new HomePod speaker.