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terriblehappytalks.comInstagram: @terriblehappytalksLIVE FROM MAVS!Bima Moechyi is a skateboarder from East Borneo who is currently residing in Australia and studying Civil Engineering. This was a mellow conversation, in which Bima gives us an insight into the challenges of leaving the familiarity of his home country to study and create a life in Australia. Bima skates! On a skateboard, Bima's style is unparalleled. Smooth, with elements of unpredictable chaos, which make for engaging viewing. Always. In this week's episode, Bima is with my live and on location at soon to be demolished, DIY skate spot; Mavs, to share his journey, experiences and hopes for the future. This episode was filmed and can be found on the THT Youtube Channel so check it out!ShanPhotos and video edit by Ryan Grant @_granty_bvsCOMPANIES THAT SUPPORT THIS PODCAST:Use the THT code!!!INDOSOLE Code: THT(15% discount shipping is WORLDWIDE and fast).Sandals made from recycled Tyres. Timeless footwear for the conscious consumer.KingPin Skate ShopCode: THT(Get 15% Discount)Best Skateshop in Australia!Best shoe range ever: Vans, Nike, Adidas, Lakai, Fallen, Etnies (and more).Rad clothes (To many to mention)Best skateboard brands: Baker, Girl, Chocolate, FA, Hockey, Antihero, Passport (and way more).Australian owned and operated. Best dudes ever! Get on dat code.KRUSH ORGANICS - CBD oils and topicalsCode: THT(Get a HUGE 40% Discount...shipping is WORLDWIDE and fast).Purveyors of the finest CBD oils and topicals. I think long and hard about who I want to be affiliated with, and I'm stoked to embark on a new affiliation with Krush Organics and advocate for the use of CBD products for supplementary use. Do the research yourself, the health benefits are unquestionable. It's done so much for me, especially during times of stress and anxiety, it's improved the quality of my sleep and sped up my recovery time especially post workouts. And it's all natural.Write a review on Apple Podcasts and give a 5 star rating.Thanks for listening!Big love and respect,ShanSupport the show (https://terriblehappytalks.teemill.com)
One two...we're coming for you...Are you a 1980's teenager like us? We were only 10 years old when the Nightmare franchise began and didn't watch Wes Craven's film till 3 years later. It probably was on HBO or something our Grandma Gay had subscribed to on cable.Anyway, here we are discussing Freddy the monster icon that he is. 1980's horror and where Roni met Robert Englund out of character. Oh, and are you familiar with Josh Gates Tonight? T* is a new fan girl of his. We feel like we're connected in his pandemic show format. Coincidence? Nightmare on Elm Street continues to trend with Vans release of the Horror collection which includes a X Nightmare on Elm Street Sk8 High shoe. We're here for it. Although the pandemic kept us from traveling to new haunts, we've made the most of what is available to us. This season we are hyper focused on POP CULTURE, LOCAL SO CAL SPOTS and showing you what we're working on at home. We've had some fun and hope you will join us for all of SEASON 2.We also try 2 cocktails for this episode.This includes the start of our Tik Tok account to make some of our favorite Paranormal Cocktails for you to see, we're working on new You Tube content with extended content on our Patreon channel to. So please listen in, subscribe and rate us. TIAFuzzy Navel2 oz Peach Schnaaps6 oz Orange Juice Pour Peach Schnapps and add orange juice to taste.Garnish with an orange slice.Pumpkin Pie Layered Shot1/3 Kahlua 1/3 Bailey's1/3 White TequilaCinnamon Carefully layer liquors in a shot glass. Light on fire and sprinkle w/cinnamon for that extra spark. SAFETY FIRST please take caution when making this shot. Cheers!TikTok Paranormal CocktailsFrolick Inc You TubeFrolick Inc Patreon Josh Gates Tonight S3 E2Pumpkin Pie ShotNightmare on Elm StreetGoodHouseKeepingArticle
On October 10th we continue our series “Hitchhiker, Stories From The Road”.On this edition we pick up the fan we always notice at shows. Some reference him as the guy in the Hawaiian shirt and others as the nicest Pearl Jam fan.On October 10th at 9pm Est The Touring Fan Live sits down with Brad Laing, to hear all his stories from the road. Hear stories like:How Brad Feel in love with musicHow he met the Love of his life because of Pearl JamDigging through Vans for music& so much moreDont Forget to Like and Subscribeand places you get podcasts!
Website: https://terriblehappytalks.com/Instagram: @terriblehappytalksLachie Rombouts is by far the most stylish, underground, big wave charger in Australia. Aside from his poetic ability to navigate monster waves (and barrels) on giant surfboards, Lachie is a deep-thinker. Empathetic by nature. Dedicated to living his truth, fearless in his vulnerability, and someone who strives to spread positivity everywhere he goes. Lachie just scored the cover of the October 2021 issue of Surfing World Magazine, doing what he does best...being himself. It's so satisfying to see recognition of this kind, and especially in Lachie's case, because he is so much more than just an amazing surfer. In this very timely and serendipitous episode , Lachie is with me live from his home on the South Coast of NSW Australia to share his experiences, challenges, hopes for the future and much much more.Big love and respect,Shan*Photos by Peter Balmer ( @southofthebridge )Lachie supports and advocates for:Waves for WaterQUESTIONING THE STORY YOU TELL YOURSELF.COMPANIES THAT SUPPORT THIS PODCAST:Use the THT code!!!INDOSOLE Code: THT(15% discount shipping is WORLDWIDE and fast).Sandals made from recycled Tyres. Timeless footwear for the conscious consumer.KingPin Skate ShopCode: THT(Get 15% Discount)Best Skateshop in Australia!Best shoe range ever: Vans, Nike, Adidas, Lakai, Fallen, Etnies (and more).Rad clothes (To many to mention)Best skateboard brands: Baker, Girl, Chocolate, FA, Hockey, Antihero, Passport (and way more).Australian owned and operated. Best dudes ever! Get on dat code.KRUSH ORGANICS - CBD oils and topicalsCode: THT(Get a HUGE 40% Discount...shipping is WORLDWIDE and fast).Purveyors of the finest CBD oils and topicals. I think long and hard about who I want to be affiliated with, and I'm stoked to embark on a new affiliation with Krush Organics and advocate for the use of CBD products for supplementary use. Do the research yourself, the health benefits are unquestionable. It's done so much for me, especially during times of stress and anxiety, it's improved the quality of my sleep and sped up my recovery time especially post workouts. And it's all natural.Write a review on Apple Podcasts and give a 5 star rating.Thanks for listening!Big love and respect,ShanSupport the show (https://terriblehappytalks.teemill.com)
Justin and tank talk about Squid Same and some of the crazy stats that have come out since it's become so popular... they talk about Games they would win at and talk about the language barrier for this show... do you prefer voice-over or subtitles? Last they talk about how Jumpsuits, and Vans sales because of the game AND A Squid Game App is already out.
We're back, back in the New York groove! This week, Jimmy and Larry reconvene in Brooklyn to discuss reintegrating themselves back into American society, being a bad jawnz friend, ornithophobia, the proper way to eat wings, signature disrespectful tendencies, muslims having a crisis of faith and breaking bad in China, Swedish flow team miscommunication, living life on a train, a legendary night out in London, Madchester memories, chaperoning James on a date, finally unlocking industry event VIP status, getting profiled at the airport, Virgin Atlantic lounge fever dreams, TF's upcoming event at Mohawk General Store, expectations for a week in LA, Squid Game's effect on Vans slip-on sales, falling asleep during the character development of Venom, The Many Saints of Newark, the unsightly demise of the Bravo Boyz and much more. For more Throwing Fits, check us out on Patreon: www.patreon.com/throwingfits.
The federal government owns and operates about 645,000 vehicles. Among them are about 200,000 passenger vehicles, 78,000 heavy-duty trucks, 47,000 vans, 847 ambulances, and three limousines. About 225,000 vehicles are operated by the Postal Service. Each year, these vehicles are driven about 4.5 billion miles and use about 400 million gallons of gasoline, producing 3.5 […]
On the following episode of the Transition, I'm joined by Sarah Van Ells, A Military Spouse and Co-Owner of The Van Plan, a company that does custom van builds accessible for everyone. Sarah opens up about running the Van Plan alongside her husband and how they've expanded their offerings into a new line of business called Hustle Trucks. Subscribe to the Transition Newsletter on Substack here: https://bit.ly/37Bb8Ne I release a newsletter every Tuesday, and a podcast every Thursday. You can leave a comment about each episode on Substack, and if you have any questions about your own venture, post that as well. I'm always looking for content and would love to learn what you all are struggling with in your own ventures. Sarahs Ventures: The Van Plan: https://www.thevanplan.co/ Hustle Trucks: https://www.hustletrucks.co/ Tune into Office Hours In addition, we're also hosting Live-Weekly Office hours for you every Tuesday on Linkedin, Facebook, and Youtube at 11 AM EST. If you find yourself stuck, have questions about Bunker Labs programming, or just want to get some tips and advice for your venture, tune into Office Hours. It's hosted by yours truly, along with other members of the Bunker Labs Marketing Team, as well as guest SME's and other members from around the community. Get Connected with Bunker Labs If you want to get plugged into the Bunker Labs ecosystem, visit www.BunkerLabs.org, select a city nearest to you, sign up for the local newsletter, and attend one of our networking events. It's that simple. From there be sure to get connected in Bunker Online, where you can learn about our many different programs to support your entrepreneurial journey. We have programs that will take you from idea to invoice, incubate you, and position you to grow alongside other founders and CEOs. Register today by clicking connect at Bunkerlabs.org
Ok, vans clearly DON'T suck, but there are lot of annoyances, and I feel it would therapeutic to list 10 of them. Also, I review a vacuum cleaner that doesn't suck - or rather does… er… and we see some amazing birds in Vermont. FIND US: We're on Facebook (Built to Go Group), Instagram (@collegeofcuriosity), Twitter (@colofcuriosity), and we have a Discord server (invite at top of main page at builttogo.com.) A nice place for Breakfast or Lunch in Lincoln Park, Chicago! Le' Moon Cafe https://le-moon-coffee.business.site/ Those Foam Blocks They're there to meet Head Injury Criterion compliance. In an accident, they prevent your head from hitting that part of the van. For most builds, they're considered unnecessary. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Head_injury_criterion Product Review - ThisWorx 12v Car Vacuum Cleaner This thing is great for sucking up all the stuff you can't sweep away. Lots of attachments, and a great price too! https://amzn.to/3DcNvbk A Place to Visit: Birds of Vermont Museum A man made it his mission to carve every bird found in Vermont in exquisite detail. And he succeeded. Birds of Vermont Some links are affiliate links. If you purchase anything from these links, the show will receive a small fee. This will not impact your price in any way.
This week the Bloody Good Film Podcast is taking a trip into the Waniverse! Well not really, but we are covering James Wan's newest film, Malignant. We know the movie is still out in theaters so we make sure to give you plenty of spoiler warnings before we get into our review of the film. We break down the trailers and how much they differed from the actually movie. We discuss James Wan as a director, and talk about his mission to make a B horror movie with a AAA budget. To go along with the film we talk everything from the new Vans horror collection, to the Purge, to the Matrix, and end up "back" to talk about our favorite kills and surprises from the film. Most importantly we give you the answer to our weekly question...Is Malignant a bloody good film? We encourage everyone to watch along while you listen and make sure to comment and let us know what you think. If you haven't already please follow us on Facebook and Instagram @bloodygoodfilmpodcast and remember...Keep it bloody buddies!!!...#BloodyGoodFilm #BloodyGoodFilmPodcast #Podcast #FilmPodcast #MoviePodcast #Film #Movie #Movies #Action #Horror #ActionFilm #ActionMovie #ActionMovies #HorrorFilm #HorrorFilms #HorrorMovie #HorrorMovies #ActionPodcast #HorrorPodcast #Malignant #Horrortober #JamesWan #ThePurge #TheMatrix
EP277- Holiday 2021 Preview Holiday 2021 will be one of the most uncertain holiday events in modern retail history. Major disruptions to the supply chain, the last mille, and to consumer behavior as a result of covid, will make this year extremely hard to predict and manage for brands and retailers. Will shipageddon 2.0 play out again this year? Will the supply chain become the supply pain? With Amazon and Target starting holiday deals early in October, and consumer still looking for scarce inventory late into January or even February, Holiday 2021 is likely to be 5 months long. In this episode we break down all the potential issues, and make some prediction about how it might all play out. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Episode 277 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Sunday October 3rd, 2021. Transcript Jason: [0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 277 being recorded on Sunday October third 2021 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:40] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason and Scot show listeners, Jason this is a really good time for listeners to pause because we're going to do a deep dive here so that means it can be a little bit of a longer episode. And leave us that five-star review this episode is going to be so good you can go ahead and pre leave us the five star review so we'll wait for second for you to come back. All right thanks for doing that that really helps us out as we get the word out about the show, Jason last year at and I went back and had a one of our many interns look at this and it was exactly this time last year I think was actually October 2nd recording this in October 3rd so it's a pretty darn close. We coined and we were doing our annual holiday preview and we both coined and predicted ship again and that is where we saw pretty early on I think before a lot of the rest of the folks in the industry that there was going to be both a surge in digital adoption due to covid plus the normal holiday increase from e-commerce and that that was going to more than absorb all of the available last-mile demand and that's the why we coined ship again and it happened and it was bad but we all survived and made it through and hopefully the folks listening to this show got in front of that both on their business and personal side. [1:58] Well this year we want to use this episode and do a deep dive into what that's going to look like this year and it's a more complex situation last year was pretty easy to lie to read those tea leaves because you know we were already pretty close to capacity before covid and it was kind of pretty easy prediction to say that we're going to far exceed the ability to deliver the packages. This year we have a lot to unpack for you spoiler alert it's going to be worse than last year much worse because not only is it that last little piece of the whole digital retail chain of events The Last Mile that's going to be a problem but it's all the other pieces leading into it that are going to be a problem something we call the supply chain but this year we are going to call it the supply pain so we're going to peel the onion on this and first we're going to look at the economic setup heading into holiday 21 then we're going to look at the global state of supply chain then we're going to look at some of the holiday trims that are kind of factors we think that are going to tie into this last some of the pontificate errs are out with their forecasts and we're going to go through those and kind of see what we think about those. Jason want it could suck kick it off with the economic setup coming into holiday 21. Jason: [3:15] Yeah awesome Scott so first of all let me start by saying on the macroeconomic picture most of the professional analysts that look at this. Are pretty uniform in feeling like the consumer is generally in a good place that the economy is in a pretty good place and they are all very bullish on the consumers ability to spend this holiday. And I say that because my own personal feeling is that there's a little more uncertainty cooked in there there certainly are some encouraging favorable things. And there's a few worrisome things and I think. What's going to become the theme for all of these sections we talked about today is there's a significant amount of uncertainty there's a lot of things that could swing either way and have a dramatic impact on holiday so. It is what it is but. Sort of giving you how I look at the macroeconomic situation the first thing we'll talk about is inflation and there's a bunch of ways to look at inflation but a simple one is there's this thing called the Consumer Price Index which kind of. Factors in how much of each good consumers purchase and how much prices are raising for that, and the the CPI is it about 5.25% right now so that's pretty significant we more expensive Goods that consumers are having to pay. And ordinarily that inflation can be problematic for the economy a couple of things to know though. [4:43] If you kind of look at the shape of that CPI it actually is going down a little bit from a peak in July and so possible we've seen the. Peak of inflation and it's starting to come back down. Inflation is a mixed bag for retailers and holiday because they get more money for everything they sell they tend to sell less stuff but make more on each in certain circumstances it can be more profitable. Um but you know the goods are costing more we've got this 5.25 percent inflation. We also though have a pretty significant increase in wages so people are getting paid more for their work, particularly low-income people, are getting paid more for work retailers and warehouses and all kinds of companies are having to raise their wages to compete for the for this labor force that's been hard to find right now and so, wages are going up and in general the analysts would call those two things Awash that that consumers. Are getting bigger paychecks and they're having to spend more on their necessities and that at the moment that's about Break Even so two interesting things to know. [5:52] A kind of predictor of future spending is this this huge survey that University of Michigan does every month the consumer confidence index. And when when we were kind of in the peak of recovery from the first wave of covid-19, that index was a leading indicator that said consumers were starting to feel good about the economy and it hit like it's this index it over a hundred today it's sitting at 71, which is the lowest point since January of 2019 it's not, like a historic low or anything like that that you know you go like oh it's way below normal, but it does appear that consumers are in general feeling less good about the economy than they were, um you know just a month or two ago now there's a bunch of political news out right now and there was fear of government shutdown that we've already averted and those kinds of things have a big impact on the consumer index oh. [6:49] Um I that consumer index doesn't have a perfect correlation with spending so I don't spend too much time thinking about it but just to know, that's a number that had been favorable and is kind of shrinking down. A big one we talk about is unemployment because people don't have jobs it's hard for them to spend on Goods obviously at the beginning of the pandemic we had a huge spike in unemployment, unemployment is actually pretty good right now we're at five point two percent. The kind of pre-pandemic average was about four so we're not all the way back to pre-pandemic average but that pre-pandemic. [7:22] Point was a historic low so historically 5.2 percent is pretty decent for unemployment. Um so like most most analysts would say that's a favorable indicator the two things to know there is, that's based on the people that are seeking jobs and not getting it there actually is a ton of people that kind of took themselves out of the workforce we. Fully understand where all those people went but a big chunk of those people were second incomes for household so like a lot of women. That like maybe don't have as good a help childcare as they had before or more school challenges or things and so they haven't gone back to the workforce and many of them are seeking work so they don't show up in the unemployment number so. Just be aware like household incomes are somewhat stressed because of that factor and then as we've talked about before on this show like as of July. People that make over $60,000 a year the unemployment is actually ten percent better than it was before the pandemic so they're doing great. And the low-income people that are making less than $30,000 a year their unemployment is still 21 percent lower than it was. The beginning of the pandemic so so a little bit of a bifurcated recovery on the jobs thing. [8:38] One of the reasons that we historically have that we had high unemployment was because there's all these rich benefits this enhanced unemployment benefits that people got that all expired last week. So if people were staying at home because they could make more and unemployment that that justification probably ended. The bad news is that ended in 26 States over two months ago and in general the data shows that people did not rush back to work when it ended. So there's not necessarily a reason to think a ton more people are going to rush back to work now that that it's ended everywhere but we'll have to see. Um the other macroeconomic things all these natural disasters are negative to the economy so you know when hurricane Ida takes a hundred billion dollars out of the economy that's a bummer. Um [9:25] Another hugely favorable one in the one that most of us are hanging our hats on that are looking for a good holiday is the savings rate and this is the most unprecedented recession of all times. Unemployment you know went way up at the peak of the pandemic but so did savings which has never happened before, and part of that was because we had all this stimulus money we were pouring into the economy but the savings rate normally hovers around 8% it shot up to 32 percent during the peak of the pandemic, it's way off of that Peak it's a nine point six which is still a little higher than it was before the pandemic and that. All that extra money that a lot of household socked away because they got the stimulus and they spent less during the the peak of the pandemic. [10:18] Arguably puts consumers in a good place to spend for this holiday the counter-argument would be all that stimulus. Is mostly over there still are you know very lumpy employment situation and a lot of that savings has dwindled, um so we'll see how it goes, um but then the last fact I'm going to throw up before I go at Scott get a word in edgewise is that the stock market has done phenomenally right and, we're way up from the pre-pandemic level and so the investor class and people that have you know as a meaningful portion of their wealth. Tied to the market. Did terrific right and so if there is economic uncertainty and instability in this economy it's bifurcated and it's the lower-income people that like do not have equity in the stock market. Um there were her but roll all that up and the the professional analysts feel like. Macroeconomic situation all to all in is pretty good and of course when rich people do well that help certain sectors of the economy quite a bit right and at the moment luxury and jewelry are doing phenomenally well for example so. That's kind of my snapshot of the macroeconomy Scott anything you'd violently disagree with or anything you pay particular attention to. Scot: [11:45] I think I think that's right I think you know there's a lot of folks that feel the inflation the CPI isn't the right inflation number it's kind of this old metric. This basket of goods and doesn't capture a lot of things you know there's, I follow a lot of the crypto people and, so there's been a huge wealth creation through crypto and that whole world which is kind of interesting and then you know there's there's a feeling that the FED has pumped so much cash into the system that is just sloshing around and kind of crazy ways which is why you saw that savings rate kind of go up as high as it did and you know they're they're talk track goes that that's why we're not seeing as much employment where folks have taken so those free free dollars and and you know. Done something with it so that they don't need a job now or they're going to be less likely to enter the workforce but I think at all. Yeah I would say I agree with the analysts on that it's going to be a pretty good holiday. [12:51] But I think the problem we'll get into that as I just don't think there's going to be a thing to buy so I don't not sure if it matters. Jason: [12:56] So step one American families probably have some money to spend okay so now as we've already alluded to the next challenges what is the supply chain look like and what could they spend it on and Scott what's your kind of read there. Scot: [13:13] Yes Supply chains from those things we always talk about but then you know in in your mind you have this kind of linkage these things linked together I remember as a kid when you would cut out the little construction paper strips and make the little chain to go around. The holiday tree there II reminds me of that and we kind of vaguely talk about it as this big, big thing and we want to really unpack it on this episode so as a summary you know there's when you make a product let's say it's one time in a million familiar with right now is a vehicle that which is one of the more complex products or even a. You're relatively simple product like an electronic toy or an apparel item or almost anything it's going to have first of all it. It's going to have component parts right so there's going to be some form of pieces that go into that I kind of mentally think of them as the Lego blocks that make up that item so if it's a cool trendy trench coat there's going to be obviously fabric buttons may be a variety of fabrics and things like that so there's generally it's hard to make any product without there being at least 10 inputs and then many times, thousands if not tens or hundreds of thousands as you get into like iPhones and vehicles and stuff like that. [14:33] So that's important to remember is each one of those component parts has a supply chain right and you can't make a widget until its component pieces are all there so what happens is we're seeing this really interesting and it's hard to know the root cause or theirs some of the economic stuff you talked about is part of it we're we're just having labor shortages that cause things but then you know we'll talk about some of this there's we import a lot of our goods from China and they're having all kinds of issues of their own there's covid related things non-covered related things but generally let's think about the supply chain and kind of the broad sense of you have typically the bulk of goods are made offshore some of them are are made on Shore but let's kind of assume in this example A lot of these products are coming from offshore or at least income the many of the components maybe there's some assembly in the US but at least the the components for a any widget are made offshore so that's number one so that has to be made in a factory somewhere and then shipped here so there's the port of origin so it leaves a port in a foreign land and then needs to come on its way to the United States for a consumer to buy it. That Journey can go a variety of different ways will to it can go by boat or air, the standard way that products are moved is through containers so you by everyone seemed these containers there's all these cool. [15:57] We just opened up here a restaurant container Village kind of a thing so you have those containers their specialized boats that carry these and and or you can put them on airplanes. So then they get on a boat let's say the bulk of products do go by boat there is some by are then they have to go over the sea and then they get to a destination port so there's you know there's two ports involved with every product that comes across in a container then it has to be unloaded from that boat you've probably seen these giant cranes somewhere. [16:29] Fun Star Wars fact those are the that's where George Lucas got the idea for at-ats he saw some of the cranes and one of the ports on the west coast and thought of what if you had a giant walking robots that look like that so those have to be unloaded and then typically you're going to put them on either so then when they get to the United States in one of the ports they're going to be offloaded onto either a truck and then part of the truck that's really critical in this is called a chassis so if you've ever seen you've probably driven by a million of these container trucks but if you take the container off that's the chassis part as you've got the front part of the truck, then you've got the chassis which holds the container and then the container sits squarely on there it's pretty clever if you think about how it's all been designed or that same container can be put over on rail so there are specialized railroad cars for carrying containers and then and then the product goes on its way then it makes it to a warehouse and then it goes to from that fulfillment center it gets distributed many times do a couple maybe from a big kind of inbound fulfillment center to some regionals to some locals and maybe even one step closer to kind of hyper local and then it gets into the last mile delivery part of the world so it gets onto the virtual shelves and then is sold and goes into that last month so [17:52] There's there's a lot that has to happen right in there and we're going to go through some of the things that are not working right now and you know like any any chain any. There's at least common denominator problem so all that can work great and if you don't have Last Mile Vehicles then you've got a problem or, the factories aren't making things fast enough then the whole chain is compressed and you've got this other set of problems and you know where we are now is almost every single part of that chain I just walked through is is kind of you know sport or in a bad situation right now and we'll take you through some examples. Jason let's start with factories what's going on there. Jason: [18:34] Yeah well a couple challenges with factories so obviously the we have the most factories in China and the good news with China is. Covid is mostly under control they definitely have had a. A spike from from Delta they almost had had down a zero before Delta. [18:55] Because of their their concerns about the the virus they have China has what's called the zero covid policy and what that means is. If they have a single case of covid they will they will shut down an entire business or. Even a sector of business so while there's not huge outbreaks of covid and factories right now. There have been a bunch of examples where only a few cases of covid showed up and that caused a factory to be closed for two weeks so there there have been some disruptions with the Chinese factories. But the bigger problem has been that it, from before and in the very beginning of covid a lot of manufacturing got Diversified and moved out of China right and so the second biggest manufacturer of apparel behind China right now is Vietnam. Vietnam has had a lot of trouble with Delta and about a third of the factories in Vietnam are shut down right now so a lot of the factories that make goods are not making as many Goods either because. [19:56] They don't have very good access to vaccines and they're having covid problems or they have really rigid government policies like China. And then forecasting a future problem that's a huge Debbie Downer, is China is actually experiencing a real energy crisis right now and China always has to kind of, ration electricity and they give quotas at the beginning of every year to these factories and factories often have to shut down because they exceed their quotas. Well this year like they have less. [20:31] Energy capacity in China for a variety of reasons in the cost of coal has gone way up. Um there's there's fixed pricing for for energy in China and said the producers can't charge you more even though the cold cost more and so they have less incentive to make it which means there's less energy and so there's a lot of fear that there's going to be a ton more slowdowns of Chinese factories because of this looming energy crisis so all of those things. Our kind of conspiring to make like the amount of product available from the factories like. Significantly inconsistent and hard to. Scot: [21:12] And then say the call thing and because I have read a couple articles on this and I haven't under Center so they're in an attempt to be green they've lowered the price of coal so cold manufacturers have stopped making goals that. Jason: [21:26] So I think that's what the the green thing has a significant impact here but the the communist country they set the the. It's a. [21:37] The energy industry is a tightly regulated industry and so the prices are fixed so that so the government decides the beginning of the year what the price of electricity is going to be. [21:47] So then these factories are only allowed to charge that price or plus or minus 10% of that price, and coal is four hundred percent more expensive so a lot of factories don't want a lot of power plants don't want to make energy electricity from coal right now because they can't do it profitably, they don't have permission from the government to charge for hundred percent for their electricity but they're having to pay 400 percent for their coal so. There is less production because of that it is also absolutely true that China has some, zero emissions by wants a 2060 things and they have concrete milestones in place every year and so even before cover that constrain how much electricity they were going to be able to make this year with current production means. And it meant that factories had a quota, um and and often that means Factories do periodically shut down when they use up their quota factories are rushing to get more efficient so they're all its, it's like everything it creates all these Downstream effects whatever equipment you use to make your stuff there's probably a more energy efficient version of that equipment that you now want to buy. But it's hard to get your hands on so all the factories are competing for the more energy-efficient versions of all this this materials, but the it's likely that more factories are going to be shut down for longer this year than ever before because of energy shortages. Scot: [23:14] And I saw an interesting graphic I forget I think is there Bloomberg or Wall Street Journal where the government then said well if you're going to shut down energy they created these zones and they put like a lot of that Apple manufacturing plants in The Greener zones that we get more power but then they neglected a lot of the input parts so. But the factories that can make the iPhone 13 or operating but they're sitting there idle because the the red zones that aren't getting a lot of power or only able to run like half a shift are. Jason: [23:44] Per your point like even if the Lego factories allowed to make Lego castles if they're not allowed to make red blocks. It's tough to make a lot of weight so castles so that that is yeah. It's a mess and then to give you an idea how cute it is normally they only shut down the the industrial areas there's so much constrained energy now that they're starting to shut down residential areas so people are. Are like having their power in their residences turned off as well. Scot: [24:14] Interesting and then I've been tracking ports here in the US very closely but what are you seeing at ports of origin in other countries. Jason: [24:24] Well this is one we're very publicly this zero covid policy that China has instituted has come into play. So that that all the biggest ports in the world are in China the third largest port in the world is divided into four terminals one of the four terminals was just shut down for two weeks because of a single. Positive test of covid and so that again to the extent that the factories are making stuff and they need to load up all those containers, um if they have to stop loading for 2 weeks that that creates a real lumpiness in the in the supply chain and that is a particularly hard thing to predict right like if you're just saying like oh man of. Factory you know has a bunch of sick workers it's going to shut down you can kind of watch that and see it coming but what you can't see coming is, you know a very small number of cases having a very material impact on the supply chain like these these ports that are shutting down and so the. The those impacts are sort of outsized on the supply chain at the moment. Scot: [25:34] Yeah and then so so now we've got our products you know, if they can make it through this Gauntlet that we've already laid out they're going to get on a boat and they are going to go get packed into a container and there's a fun if you're a business you're trying to get as much of this product into a container as possible because it's pretty much all you can eat once you once you buy a container there's fractional containers whatnot and because of there's a shortage in containers and then the cost to send these containers has gone way up so right now as we record this the cost there's actually an index you can look at this so if you were will put a link to show notes but if you Google Freight Fredo's fre IG HT o s index there's an index that tracks this and we have hit a record of 20500 86 average dollars to send a container and that's twice what it was in July of this year and that was twice of what it was in January so we effectively you know in July it was about ten thousand dollars and in January as about five thousand dollars now another interesting Factor here is depending on how many units you put in a container you divide that that unit cost right so if you're putting I'll keep the math easy a thousand units in one of these containers which would be something relatively big you're going to you know you just added effectively another. Yeah. [26:57] Let's see I should have smelled your $15 to the product just in kind of Landing cost with this with this increase so whatever your cost is on a per unit it's gone up effectively 4X since January so that's a factor to consider. [27:15] And what I'm what I'm hearing from people on the ground is you'll go bid and you kind of get get in front of this number right now so you're actually out there bidding today 30,000 to get a container and then you think you'll have one and then they'll say oh you know we need to re-evaluate that because they can the shipping company I'm talking to is now saying is 33,000 so there's this like running auction to get. Space on these boats that are coming over because of some of the rest of the supply chain that will talk about so. [27:46] So how about are so that's that's what it looks like by boat what are you seeing on the air side. Jason: [27:51] Yeah and obviously the most cost-effective way to get all this stuff here is via boat so you'd prefer to do that but when the boats aren't available or if you you need stuff considerably faster like a, in Good Times it takes about about 40 days to move a container from China to the west coast of the US so. Some Goods do come via air and little known fact 50% of Air Freight that comes into the u.s. comes on the bottom of, passenger airplanes right so it's not it's not FedEx and UPS planes flying from China to the US cargo planes it's, it's the bottom of these passenger planes and guess what is not happening right now is. International so there's just way less flights and said there's way less capacity for this Air Freight and so both, because there's more demand for Air Freight because of all the problems with the ocean Freight and because there's less Supply that the air option has you know been dramatically diminished from where it would normally be. Scot: [28:56] Yep so then so then you decide okay well I've got to put on a boat you do that you wait your 40 days and then what you find out is your delayed for a very long time because the heart problem is the u.s. ports are all pretty much maxed out so we've kind of done this very big under-investing in our ports so one of our our biggest one is in Los Angeles at Long Beach and then we have Savannah New York New Jersey and then there's a lot of secondary and tertiary ports but those are the big ones and there's another index that Bloomberg, puts out which is effectively the number of boats that are anchored offshore and you know what you want to you never want to Anchor these things because effectively they're just sitting there all that product just sitting there you know. Doing nothing waiting and the reason the reason why they're sitting there is the ports are they can't unload the products fast enough. [29:55] There's a million reasons why we'll talk about that in a second but this just actually ticked up over there's over 40 boats, and this is interesting I've read a data point this has 74 Los Angeles and 40 I think there's 40 anchored in 30 actively kind of being done there's these Maps if you look at my Twitter feed I just tweeted one to just show you know the port and the congestion there's just all these boats just sitting there waiting to come on shore I have a friend that lives in LA and they can just as they drive around they can just see the boats out there just fact it's very unusual time frame. Jason: [30:30] One of the supply chain guys I work with suggested that we should start a new company Uber barge where we deliver like In and Out Burgers to all these boats that are stuck offshore. Scot: [30:39] Someone someone tried to actually get a helicopter to go out one to get their container often. You can't do that because if you've ever seen these things are stacked like 50 deeper someone is crazy you can't just say I really need that one right there so this this index just ticked over 70 for the first time ever since has been created which is just just crazy. [31:00] And so why is it taking so long to offload the boats well we have under invested in these things and then we have this discontinued problem with the supply chain. Number one there's not enough people to I think it's longshoreman there's a lot of these Union type jobs that you hear about that do this so there's a longshoreman or the ones that offload products for a long time due to covid they were only running like half the number of shifts that used to so they have actually spun that up, they're running more shifts but now there's a shortage of chassis and then because of that. [31:37] You know if you don't have chassis you can still off load the boat but now you have to put it into kind of medium term or short term storage and then all that is full so there's not enough chassis there's not enough truck drivers if there is chassis and then if there's not chassis all the storage is full and then, the one when a product comes off the boat at the Port it can either go by truck or rail the whole rail system is all jammed up as well the this is interesting I read this one article that. Near you in the Joliet train yard which is one of the biggest ones in middle of the country they're so jammed up they have over 8,000 containers stacked there waiting for more training capacity and then some some days the trains are backed up for 25 miles waiting as they're loading these containers on there to try to do this, normal turnaround for a chassis to go at a port to deliver something to where it's going and come back is three and a half days due to all these various shortages that is extended out to 17 days so that's pretty crazy. A big factor in this port jam up is also the shortage of drivers and I call them CDL Drivers which is a commercial driver's license. [32:49] To drive one of these 18-wheelers that's going to carry a container you have to have a you know a certification for a certain type of vehicle there's It's relatively, no time-consuming to go get the certification and the number of drivers that have this is actually decreasing over time as they age out and enough people are coming into the profession so I read one article and this was by one of the one of the professional groups of CDL drivers that there's about 240,000 shortfall of CDL Drivers compared, kind of where the demand is there's about you call it to and 50,000 fewer drivers than they need so we're seeing you know I think I can remember was you or someone but Amazon and Walmart are ineffectively gunfighter these people where they're charged their they're paying crazy signing bonuses and hourly rates and salaries for any kind of truck drivers and so because they're the biggest. Employers of these things they tend to have the better economics and its really starving out other parts of the market as they absorb all the available CDL drivers. Jason: [33:57] Yeah that Walmart's paying a hundred and for a new driver $160,000 a year and eight thousand dollar signing bonus. Scot: [34:04] Yeah yes it's not uncommon uncommon thing to see out there it's pretty crazy, so that's what's going on at the ports it is a hot mess on this side as well so even if you are fortunate enough to get your product here to the US then you know you're looking at probably an extra 40 days I think is kind of you know what everyone's saying right now and that's average it can take a lot longer the LA Port is so jammed up that people are are they're rerouting you know rerouting boats across the sand getting them to other other ports but there are no like there's one in Georgia and it's the Savannah one and it's getting backed up I just saw they authorized building this this kind of effectively opening up a big giant parking area to put containers and that's going to give them some more storage capacity but you know where if you add up those, here we are you know in October and you start adding these things together the the holidays pretty much baked at this point right there's you maybe have 15 to 20 days of window here for stuff you already ordered. 80 days ago to kind of get here but none of this stuff is going to get fixed fast that's going to be part of the problem. Jason: [35:17] Yeah yeah if you follow the earning calls like Nike for example like dramatically lowered their guidance and they said Hey look it's it's cost four times as much to get a container of shoes here and the container takes twice as long to get here, and so we're just not going to have the supply to hit our original guidance and and Nikes better this than a lot of other people so it's a. [35:41] Pretty prominent problem and then there's all these secondary impacts right so you mentioned the math of the container right like you'd like to fill up that 40-foot container with Goods if your goods only take up 90%. Ordinarily you'd put someone else's Goods in the last 10% to try to make it more. Cost effective and efficient and share those costs but when the unloading is so gummed up what you don't want to do is have a secondary process where that container comes off the boat has to get re packed your stuff goes One Way their stuff goes another way, so people are actually shipping containers less full than they normally would which is entirely counterintuitive for what you would expect. The boats are all slowing down because they can use less gas to come here and 80 days then to come here in 40 days because there's no place to unload them. Um and the the supply chain guys I'm like we've been helping a lot of retailers hire truckers lately and they kind of summarize it real simply like the average commercial truck driver was 55 years old with multiple comorbidities a bunch of them. Retired and all the trucking schools that can teach people to get these licenses shut down for covid so there were no new licenses being issued for like. [36:54] Year and so there's just this this huge acute problem. And then you know without those truck drivers with the train problems and Barge problems of your on the Mississippi there's just like no place to move all those goods. You mentioned people are moving the boats from from some ports to secondary ports. That helps somewhat but the biggest cargo ships can't even fit in these ports right so I Long Beach the one of the most advanced Sports we have certainly the most advanced on the West Coast, um [37:27] Can't take the two biggest class of ships it can only take the third biggest class of ships and then as soon as you divert that ship to Portland instead of Long Beach. The the that class of ships won't won't fit there and so like there's there's a limited option to just move the stuff around so we're just we're gummed up like never before and most scary of all Gap and their earnings call kind of said like Hey we're loading our guidance and we're going to very lumpy inventory and we don't see any alleviation of these inventory challenges until at least 2020 3. Scot: [38:06] Yeah in the Auto World we're having a huge problem here where there's a chip shortage and then. [38:14] Another problem is you spend down these factories they don't just get spun back up because all the component parts are you know they stop ordering them and then those factories and everything so so even as chips are starting to come in a lot of vehicles can't be made because there's some other component that now is stuck in one of these containers that that were talking about I read this other interesting article where Coca-Cola has several of their bottling facilities that are down waiting on replacement parts so they went and basically least 20 or 40 bulk ships they didn't even worry about getting containers and they just jumped onto those ships the pieces they need to make their factories work and and are bring him over in this kind of crazy never done before way for a big company. Jason: [38:58] Yeah and I guess that that's one last point on this supply chain thing. It definitely is favoring the biggest players in every industry right so if you're the you know the biggest receivers of goods in the US. You're still being impacted by all of this but you're first in line for what capacity does exist and you you mentioned the games that the Brokers are playing with the price of containers that's going to happen a lot more to the independent shipper than it is the you know number one or number two shipper for that port and so. Well this this is a pain for every retailer in America it's going to be less painful to Walmart and Amazon then it's going to be to the, the medium-sized specialty retailer for. [39:49] And I was just going to point out I think you saw this as well as got but like Salesforce kind of put together a holiday forecast and they looked at all these supply chain problems and they're estimating, that this is going to add about 233 billion dollars in extra supply chain cost to holiday sales for the US so that's. Going to come like straight out of margins basically or or drive more inflation. Scot: [40:13] Yeah that's for the products to get here there's this another side of that equation where which is the opportunity cost right because you know. There's not gonna be a lot of exciting merchandise on the Shelf so we're what's opportunity cost of that we'll have to kind of. We'll get to that I guess we talked about forecast so what what holiday behaviors are feeding into this. Jason: [40:34] Yeah so tricky this one is there wild swings both ways right so you think if you remember at the beginning of covid there. Fundamental changes that happen people spend a lot less on travel they spend a lot less on restaurants they spend a lot more on their homes and they spent a lot more grocery stores right and so then as, people got more comfortable as people start getting vaccinated as infection rates are going down we started seeing all those things swing back right and you started seeing, a lot more bookings that are being be you saw a lot more Airline reservations you saw a lot more traffic coming to stores and you certainly saw a lot more people going back to restaurants. Then Delta hit. And we saw a dip again and people started returning to the the the kind of earlier covid behaviors not as dramatically as the first wave. [41:25] You kind of had a second wave and so predicting which of those, behaviors are going to be at the at the peak for holiday is really hard right now so retailers are looking at consumer sentiment and Doug mcmillon in his investor call he's like hey. Our consumer has told a strongly they want to have a normal holiday that they want to sit down with their family and have a meal, they want to travel they want to do the normal things and there's a strong desire and that if it is remotely safe they will do it and Doug's I kind of under his breath comment was. [42:05] Even if it's not safe they're probably going to do it right so, his viewing is there's there's so much fatigue in all of these like covid change behaviors that were going to see a significant return, you know closer to pre covid behaviors but you know we are we are seeing some signs go the other way, in the u.s. store traffic never fully recovered we are still down about ten percent versus pretty covid levels in China store traffic totally recovered and then Delta hit and store traffic drop back down, 30% below pre-pandemic levels and so since China has historically been about 4 months ahead of us. That that would predict that we're going to see another drop in. Um store traffic which again doesn't mean people won't spend it means they're going to buy more online instead of in store and that exacerbates all of The Last Mile problems that we talked about last year and we're going to talk about it. [43:09] Again this year so it's really risky to predict. What's going to happen with the coded behaviors people were starting to buy a lot of clothes again after having not buying clothes in here and now the closed sales are slowing down and then we talked about. Apparel is one of the categories most impacted by all these supply chain issues so there just may not be close to buy and so really hard to predict that stuff. Um but what I can tell you is retailers now have a couple of reasons to desperately get you to shop earlier right one reason is they're not going to have very much stuff and they don't want to be the Grinch that caused you to miss Christmas so they desperately want you to come in early, and give yourself the best chance to get the stuff you want so, the every retailer is more loudly than ever before trying to incentivise and entice customers to shop early. [44:03] Also if this ends up being another digital Christmas where people shop a lot more online than they do in stores, we have a huge problem with the last mile we don't have enough capacity in FedEx ups and u.s. post office to deliver twice as many packages over holiday, and so we need to spread that those those orders out over more days and so for all of those reasons we're seeing retailers start their sales earlier than ever so. To kind of paint you a promotional picture Amazon Prime day normally is in summer it historically celebrated Amazon's birthday which is in July. So then the pandemic kids they can't have a July sale so they have an October sale and it went really well. So this year they went back to Summer but they went to earlier summer they had the sale in June and a lot of us think they did it earlier in June for one of two reasons either they hate their own C fo and wanted him to have to talk. On earnings calls about the sale being in a different quarter every year for the last three years or. They were having a sale earlier to make room for a second big sale they intend to have this year during holiday to kind of repeat the success of. [45:11] Of holiday Prime Day last year and we haven't seen any all the announcements yet but Amazon has already announced a 30 day. Beauty and personal care sale starting in October of this year Target match that and said hey we're going to start our deal days in October, and we're price-matching for the whole holiday so if if you don't believe us and you think we're just making a joke about these early sales and you think there's going to be better sales waiter know if you buy it early will guarantee you, that will match any lower prices that you see anywhere for the rest of holiday so targets leaning heavily into that. And we think most retailers are going to launch their sales. Earlier than ever before to try to pull in these these early Shoppers because of all the supply chain and inflation issues. The sales aren't going to be as good as they usually are like that what used to be 40 percent off is going to be 25% off but what deals they do have are going to be earlier in the year to try to drive those, those sales earlier. [46:21] And people aren't going to get everything they want they're going to be limited inventory and so what's going to happen people are going to get more gift cards people are going to celebrate the holiday later and we're going to sell more stuff in January January is always a good holiday month anyway but January is going to be disproportionately large this year because of the lumpy supply chain think so, if you think of holiday as generally like being a strong peak in October between that that the kind of turkey five, this holiday more than ever before that spending starting in October and is going to last all the way through January. Scot: [46:58] And then as we get to the last mile we're definitely have another ship again so we've got we haven't increased our capacity hardly any because you can't really buy Vans and the everyone's renting Vans and there's just this fixed number of biliary vehicles and if we're going to have this Less store traffic even more e-commerce than last year even if you throw you know maybe. [47:23] Low middle digit low single digits on there like five or 7% or something well we effectively had 98, we can only deliver like 97% of the packages last year so it's going to make it a now will only be a little deliver maybe 90% of the packages so it's going to be really tough delivery, set up coming into the holiday. Jason: [47:46] I think the like some data points I saw the that are alarming like so number one. All the Fulfillment centers have an average turnover rate of like four hundred percent a year right so they're having a hard time hiring people and keeping people. FedEx in their earnings call said that like we just can't staff some of our distribution hubs so we're having to reroute packages in a less efficient manner, because for example we only have sixty percent of our labor force in our Portland Hub right so ordinarily they would try to, be at a hundred and twenty percent of their labor in these hubs for holiday with all this seasonal labor and this year. [48:24] They can't even fulfill all the permanent jobs they have so there's not going to be a seasonal Flex. For the main carriers you know the Retailer's do a lot of seasonal hiring for stores but they're prioritizing the seasonal hiring for their fulfillment centers over the stores because they're so. Worried about enough labor to fulfill all these packages and then you know when when FedEx and UPS have less capacity. What do they do they smartly charge more for it so we've seen gas surcharges we've seen holiday surcharges and and they're now announcing their rate hikes for January and FedEx announced the largest rate hike they've had in the last ten years so on average, it's almost six percent as 5.9 percent rate hike it varies wildly depending on the class of service so some kinds of shippers are going to get hit much harder. Um and just like last year all of the the big shippers have a quota and they're not going to be allowed to ship more more packages. The maybe one silver lining in this is that. Because readers are likely to be more successful in spreading the demand out this year than last year that's going to help a little bit and. [49:37] As a as challenges everyone's going to be with the capacity last year there were political challenges that that particularly got the US Post Office sideways which is a big part of this whole chain. And they don't anticipate that that will be as bad this year and so there is absolutely going to be ship again in 2.0 this year with the, the The Last Mile but the most of the analysts I'm talking to are saying the first mile is going to be so disrupted this year that the last mile is going to seem. Less severe in comparison whereas last year the the holiday challenges were all about the last mile. Scot: [50:16] Yeah and you know the double-edged sword of there not being enough product is maybe there just won't be enough product and it won't you should be getting but if whatever there is is going to get jammed up I think. Jason: [50:29] Yeah so that's a great transition to so like that's a lot of Doom and Gloom what's going to happen for Holiday should we all be shorting the retail stocks like what's. What's going to happen. And spoiler alert I don't know well we'll talk a little bit about our educated guesses but maybe before we do we can walk through some of the the forecast from the the brave souls that have been willing to share their holiday forecast. Scot: [50:56] Yeah the one the one I saw was from Salesforce and they, they say that e-commerce is going to be up 7% versus kind of that huge surge last year which was like you know fifty percent so they're coming in kind of with a moderate 7% growth which which is done yeah I think that would be the probably the slowest e-commerce growth since 2008-2009 yeah. Jason: [51:24] 2008. Scot: [51:26] Yeah that's that's the one I was tracking and you know when I read through the bullet points it made sense they're definitely putting a pretty wet blanket on things due to the this kind of quote-unquote Supply pain. Jason: [51:38] Yeah and it is tricky so they were the only one I've seen that's done an e-commerce forecast right and I would say that's the most uncertain because. Of we just don't know whether people are going to go back to stores or whether they're going to be worried about health and ordering online when they start having constrained. Um supplies is that gonna. Push them to online more because they can hunt more places or is that going to entice them to go to the store because they can use their eyes to see the inventory for themselves like there's, there's a lot of variability in that e-commerce number but I would remind people even as low as 7 percent sounds its. 7% on top of the huge bases from last year right so it's it's that's not a decline in e-commerce by any means that's a slowing of the increase just as a reminder for. People. But then I did see several like of the other the kind of traditional Consultants put together an overall holiday forecast right so beIN predicted that they were going to they thought holiday was going to be up seven percent from last year. [52:45] Deloitte said that they thought holiday was going to be up between seven and nine percent from last year. And MasterCard said they think holidays going to be up 7.4 percent from last year so. To put all three of those numbers in context those are all huge numbers. Um last year was the best holiday year in 10 years and sales were up 10% but the average is about 6% so saying we're going to grow if. You know these three things kind of all averaged out to about seven percent growth if we're here we go. If all holiday store an e-commerce gross 7% on top of the ten percent from last year, that's a phenomenal holiday and so that says, that these guys are pretty confident that the consumer is going to spend even if they can't find exactly what they want right that the supply chain is going to be painful but that the all the macroeconomic stuff we talked about at the beginning is going to win out and consumers are going to spend a lot of money this holiday I. [53:49] I want to believe this I'm going to be pleasantly surprised if it plays out like that right and my um, the the one caveat I'll say is that us retail is incredibly Diversified right and so for every category that's going to get shellacked by the supply chain or by changes in covid behaviors. Some other category is going to benefit right and so. It is true that the holiday could absolutely hit these numbers like I'll remind people that cars are 25 percent of retail sales gas is another huge chunk of retail sales. Some of these forecasts have those things in some don't some of these forecasts are for November and December some are for November December and January like everybody has a different definition of retail and a different definition of holiday so, you can't really apples-to-apples any of these but I pulled all the US Department of Commerce data and again last year November through January 10 percent growth, average of the last ten 10 years is about 6% growth so 7% growth is a. A terrific number and. I don't know I could see it happening if it happens it's going to be because there was a we had the most Monster January ever because I just don't think there's going to be enough Goods on the Shelf in November and December to do. Scot: [55:17] Yeah I'll take a so I think the winners are going to be the companies that have the most power and smartest supply chain operators so I think Walmart and Amazon. Maybe Target I don't know them as well do they have a you think they feel like they have a pretty dialed in. Jason: [55:33] They Walmart and Target both in their earnings said like look our inventory isn't going to be isn't where we want it it's not going to be where we want it but we we in general are feeling good and neither one lowered its guidance for holiday in their last earnings call so they both felt that they were going to weather the storm but you know below that you go look at like a Bed Bath and Beyond and they're like look there's no way we can hit our numbers with the supply we're gonna get. Scot: [56:00] Will they miss this quarter and if you miss this quarter you're just going to get worse the next quarter Seth. Jason: [56:04] Exactly exactly. Scot: [56:06] It's a poop storm now and it's gonna be a bloodbath and in 90 days yes I think I think if I kind of do the calculus on that I think those three guys win I think everyone else is net negative and. You know I don't think those three are big enough let's say they represent Amazon's kind of half of e-commerce only think about e-commerce the rest of retail is. That's your bailiwick yeah Amazon's half, yeah I could see it being flat to down five percent because. Amazon Walmart and Target doing decent isn't it be enough for to make up for the whole that it's created there so yeah so that's kind of, where I see it it's going to be the big get bigger and stronger and because they you know they have Prime, they have more technologies that this has been on their radar longer they have more containers they have more trucks they have more dollars to spend on solving these problems they're going to be the winners so that's going to be you know it is going to be I think a bad year for the small medium sized business the incumbent brands that are just getting their legs under them and you know having to kind of have a Miss effectively miss a holiday because you couldn't get a bunch of product it's going to be be a rough rough year for everybody. Jason: [57:25] Yeah no I in a way it's going to be the exact opposite of last year when covid first hit nobody obviously had Advance warning or was prepared for this and so a secondary impact was a bunch of eCommerce sites that didn't traditionally get a lot of consumer visits, got a lot of Trials because Amazon constrained FBA in Amazon head supply chain problems right and so suddenly you were looking to get your instant pot from Bed Bath & Beyond suddenly a bunch of people are looking to see what eBay had, that hasn't shopped eBay in five or ten years right so a lot of those kind of second-tier eCommerce sites got extra visits as people were. Trying new address the supply chain shortages this year I think we're going to have exactly the opposite there's going to be a ton of supply chain shortages there's going to be a lot of, news stories every day about supply chain shortages and the big players with the best infrastructure in the most advanced supply chain planning, like the Amazons and Walmarts of the world and and targets, are going to be the winners and it's going to be a lot harder for those specialty retailers and Regional retailers to compete unfortunately. Scot: [58:41] Yeah I think that that is the setup and we will continue so that hopefully that gives everyone an idea of the big talk in the industry and you were just at an industry event is this what everyone was talking about Jason. Jason: [58:55] Yeah yeah slightly less than I would have expected I mean it was a huge topic everyone understands the supply chain thing. I do think it was the first conversation a lot of you know customer experience folks and people that you know we're kind of had their head down in their own in their own Silo you know we're suddenly getting their eyes open to the fact that like. Yeah your customer experience is going to stink at there's no products on the. Scot: [59:20] Mix the CX person's job a lot easier they just you know just take the holiday off. Jason: [59:26] Yeah and so you know it is interesting though again like. [59:31] You know we may we may hit the top line numbers and it may be from a lot less items that sold more expensively. The you know category there's going to be winning and losing categories by far and again because of the consumer health and the supply chain issues, the supply chain for diamonds is looking a lot better than the supply chain for Budget shoes and so you know you just may see what jury where you know you say you sell a few things for a while, do better you know where there's extra scarcity then you know some of these low-margin high-volume consumer goods and so I think. [1:00:08] My key takeaways for everyone is it's going to be a very lumpy like the averages will be interesting we should all follow them but but every. Um retailer and every category is going to experience a very different holiday and there just is more uncertainty than there has been in the last 30 years of retail so like for anyone, to definitively say this is how it is going to play out I think is super risky because there's so many things that could go either way at this point, will consumers you know by another toy when they can't get their first choice will consumers go to a restaurant you know or not will consumers take a vacation or not. You know all of these these will they pay 5% more for something or not like there's just so much uncertainty that you know this is going to be. Holiday that really rewards people that do good scenario planning and are prepared for any eventuality. Scot: [1:01:06] Absolutely and we will keep you posted here on the Jason Scott show but hopefully this gives everyone kind of a framework to work within and we'll be updating various components of the supply pain as we get closer to Holiday. Jason: [1:01:22] And until next week happy commercing!
https://terriblehappytalks.com/Instagram: @terriblehappytalks Sally is someone I regard as a close friend, confidant, inspiration, and generally a person I feel comfortable enough to go to for advice on all things life. Author, consultant and mentor at the Green School in Bali. Sally was a past guest on the show in which she went into detail about her 20 year battle with migraine headaches and severe food intolerance. In this week's episode, Sally is with me live from her home in Bali to check in, and as always, share her experiences, challenges and hopes for the future. Enjoy!ShanCOMPANIES THAT SUPPORT THIS PODCASTUse the THT code!!!INDOSOLE Code: THT(15% discount shipping is WORLDWIDE and fast).Sandals made from recycled Tyres. Timeless footwear for the conscious consumer.KingPin Skate ShopCode: THT(Get 15% Discount)Best Skateshop in Australia!Best shoe range ever: Vans, Nike, Adidas, Lakai, Fallen, Etnies (and more).Rad clothes (To many to mention)Best skateboard brands: Baker, Girl, Chocolate, FA, Hockey, Antihero, Passport (and way more).Australian owned and operated. Best dudes ever! Get on dat code.KRUSH ORGANICS - CBD oils and topicalsCode: THT(Get a HUGE 40% Discount...shipping is WORLDWIDE and fast).Purveyors of the finest CBD oils and topicals. I think long and hard about who I want to be affiliated with, and I'm stoked to embark on a new affiliation with Krush Organics and advocate for the use of CBD products for supplementary use. Do the research yourself, the health benefits are unquestionable. It's done so much for me, especially during times of stress and anxiety, it's improved the quality of my sleep and sped up my recovery time especially post workouts. And it's all natural.Write a review on Apple Podcasts and give a 5 star rating.Thanks for listening!Big love and respect,ShanSupport the show (https://terriblehappytalks.teemill.com)
ResourcesAmy Webb's 14th annual tech trends reportTakeawaysA little bit of everythingLast week, we launched a new podcast format and outlined our changes and why we made them. Missed the episode? You can catch up here.The podcast team shared a good laugh over the latest marketing spoof to go viral featuring Emily Zugay, a graphic designer who laughably redesigns logos for big brands like McDonald's, Doritos, and the NFL.That little health brand we like to call AppleDespite several roadblocks in Apple's initial entrance into the health industry, the tech giant continues to expand its presence with investments in health features and devices.Apple is reported to have cognitive decline and depression detection, insulin level detection, and walking steadiness detection features in development currently.Human bodies are becoming containers for data points monitored by devices. With these devices come enhanced insights and the ability for providers to treat more effectively. With so many health data points available, comes a new question of privacy – how comfortable will consumers be sharing this sort of data directly with providers?On the other hand, it's possible that these continual monitoring devices will remove the need for physician interaction altogether.Since the launch of its first health app seven years ago, Apple has a wealth of consumer health data already and will continue to build this database as it develops new health data-collection devices.If Apple is an immovable force in the health industry, where does it fit into the business plans of other health entities such as health systems? As a strategic question, systems must carefully consider where they compete, partner, and invest.While Apple's technology could make health systems' digital front door more accessible, a partnership would add a new level of dependency on Apple, giving Apple more control in the industry.Step into the metaverseMetaverse is the concept of a future iteration of the internet, made up of persistent, shared, 3D virtual spaces linked into a perceived virtual universe.Facebook is investing heavily in "responsibly" building the metaverse. For those who know Facebook's reputation for living up to civic duty, you'll understand why this gave our team a chuckle.In 2003, the first promise of a metaverse came out with the platform, Second Life. Initially, the concept created plenty of buzz in the healthcare industry, showing promise of enhanced patient engagement. But the buzz was just that – hype that quickly faded.Now, the big name in the metaverse is Roblox, a gaming creation community with 43 million active users. Brands like Vans, Nike, and Gucci have pioneered experiences in Roblox, setting the standard for brand usage of the platform.But where does Roblox and the Metaverse fit into the world of health? That remains the burning question. With no clear pathway yet defined, health brands may have an opportunity but should experiment with caution.I'm not a lawyer, but I play one on TVThis segment is our question of the day segment for the show. Today's question: how do you gain approval from legal and compliance teams to engage influencers in your marketing initiatives?By nature, good legal and compliance officers will lead you to the safest path. But as we all know, the safest path isn't what will drive results amidst heightened competition.Since influencer marketing is relatively new to healthcare, health brand marketers may need to answer questions that may sound intuitive, such as: Are we paying people to be patients? Are we disclosing that we have influencers? Can we rely on influencers to protect our brand and speak to our brand as agreed upon?
- Ford Asks Salaried Workers for Vaccination Status - Hyundai Launching EV Innovation Challenge - Lucid Kicks Off Production - GM Making 1st BrightDrop Vans - Jeep Reveals All-New Grand Cherokee - Citroen Has Wild Vision of Future Mobility - Mystery Car is An Old Toyota
- Ford Asks Salaried Workers for Vaccination Status- Hyundai Launching EV Innovation Challenge- Lucid Kicks Off Production- GM Making 1st BrightDrop Vans- Jeep Reveals All-New Grand Cherokee- Citroen Has Wild Vision of Future Mobility- Mystery Car is An Old Toyota
This week Bryan and Tony discuss life, gift card mystery, Toy Hall of Fame finalists, PBR merch, booze shortage, Vans horror series, pineapple reaper jelly, pumpkin pulled pork, Seafall game, Star Wars Visions, What If?, Sandman teaser, cartoon Funko Pops, our QoftheW, and more! Salty Merch: https://www.teepublic.com/user/saltylanguagepods Our Patreon: Patreon.com/saltylanguage Links: 1. 2021 Toy Hall of Fame Finalists https://www.toyhalloffame.org/finalists 2. Pabst in home advertising https://pbrinhomeadvertising.com/ 3. PBR merch https://store.pabstblueribbon.com/ 4. Liquor shortage https://www.npr.org/2021/09/22/1039600464/liquor-shortages-covid-19-pennsylvania-virginia-ration-alcohol#:~:text=Short%20Wave-,The%20U.S.%20Liquor%20Supply%20Chain%20Could%20Take%20Years%20To%20Recover,make%20some%20types%20of%20booze. 5. Netflix The Sandman teaser https://youtu.be/VBXqrBl6pEo 6. Pulled pork in a pumpkin https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugnlLymNWy0 7. Seafall game https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/148261/seafall SUATMM: Vans horror collection https://sneakerbardetroit.com/vans-horror-2021-collection-release-date/ SUATMM: Cartoon Classics series of Funko Pop figures https://comicbook.com/gear/news/cartoon-network-classics-and-more-celebrated-with-a-day-of-funko-pop-figures/#1 QoftheW: What would you put in a pie to feed to your enemy? Subscribe / rate / review us on Apple Podcasts! Visit us at: saltylanguage.com Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/salty-language/id454587072?mt=2 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3GnINOQglJq1jedh36ZjGC iHeart Radio: http://www.iheart.com/show/263-Salty-Language/ Google Play Music: https://play.google.com/music/listen#/ps/Ixozhhniffkdkgfp33brnqolvte facebook.com/saltylanguage @salty_language / email@example.com http://salty.libsyn.com/webpage / http://www.youtube.com/user/SaltyLanguagePod Instagram: SaltyLanguage Reddit: r/saltylanguage Stitcher: https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/salty-language tangentboundnetwork.com Share with your friends!
Website: https://terriblehappytalks.com/Instagram: @terriblehappytalksLoki Madireddi is a husband, father, passionate chef and food lover! Loki's infectious personality and kind nature won the hearts of Australians when he was a contestant on the very popular TV series MasterChef in 2018! Loki is a past guest on the THT podcast dating all the way back to episode 32 and this time around, Loki discusses his family's transition back to Australia from Bali at the start of the pandemic, his recent diagnosis of Dyslexia, why passion is paramount, and much more. Loki is with me live from his home in Melbourne Australia!ShanLoki supports and advocates for individual entrepreneurs and provides scholarship opportunities via his website:https://www.trusttheloki.com/fellowshipCOMPANIES THAT SUPPORT THIS PODCASTUse the THT code!!!INDOSOLE Code: THT(15% discount shipping is WORLDWIDE and fast).Sandals made from recycled Tyres. Timeless footwear for the conscious consumer.KingPin Skate ShopCode: THT(Get 15% Discount)Best Skateshop in Australia!Best shoe range ever: Vans, Nike, Adidas, Lakai, Fallen, Etnies (and more).Rad clothes (To many to mention)Best skateboard brands: Baker, Girl, Chocolate, FA, Hockey, Antihero, Passport (and way more).Australian owned and operated. Best dudes ever! Get on dat code.KRUSH ORGANICS - CBD oils and topicalsCode: THT(Get a HUGE 40% Discount...shipping is WORLDWIDE and fast).Purveyors of the finest CBD oils and topicals. I think long and hard about who I want to be affiliated with, and I'm stoked to embark on a new affiliation with Krush Organics and advocate for the use of CBD products for supplementary use. Do the research yourself, the health benefits are unquestionable. It's done so much for me, especially during times of stress and anxiety, it's improved the quality of my sleep and sped up my recovery time especially post workouts. And it's all natural.Write a review on Apple Podcasts and give a 5 star rating.Thanks for listening!Big love and respect,ShanSupport the show (https://terriblehappytalks.teemill.com)
SNL has announced a list of hosts for the new season with Kim Kardashian as one of them, Vans the shoe brand is launching horror-themed sneakers honoring ‘IT', and ‘The Shining', and Johnny Depp says ‘no one is safe' from cancel culture! See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
- GM Hires Former NHTSA Administrator- GM Invests in Chinese AV Startup- Volvo Dropping Leather from EV Interiors- Skoda Creates New Sustainable Material- Mahle Develops Portable Emission Tester- Time Anxiety the New Range Anxiety- ELMS Gets Big Order for EV Vans- Ford Helps Identify Unsafe Roads- Ford Teams Up for Battery Recycling and Materials
- GM Hires Former NHTSA Administrator - GM Invests in Chinese AV Startup - Volvo Dropping Leather from EV Interiors - Skoda Creates New Sustainable Material - Mahle Develops Portable Emission Tester - Time Anxiety the New Range Anxiety - ELMS Gets Big Order for EV Vans - Ford Helps Identify Unsafe Roads - Ford Teams Up for Battery Recycling and Materials
Randi went to war with an app for Covid tests, but she finally won. Vans and Nike are both coming out with shoes that have Halloween movie themes. We take a look at the setlist for tonight's Guns N Roses concert. Plus, Gabby Petito update, Huge Mail Sack, winter Olympics, Chevelle and more!
On today's 'ROR Morning Show, it's Morning Court: the case of Doug and the diner - should he buy it and finally live the dream? Plus, a vax for poison ivy, eat the butter and scary Vans. We walk Gabby Petito: is her boyfriend dead or on the run? In today's Dirty Laundry, botched plastic surgery and Netflix's got the Golden Ticket! We talk how stressful The Game of Life boardgame was and of course, Supah Smaht in 60 Seconds! All this and more on the ROR Morning Show with Bob Bronson, LBF, and Brian Podcast. Find more great podcasts at bPodStudios…The Place To Be For Podcast Discovery
Here are 3 Cool Stories for you! LBF has good news if you're super allergic to poison ivy! Horror movie fans! Brian has the shoes for you! ! https://twitter.com/VANS_66/status/1440415529836040212?s=20 Bob has some good news if you're a fan of milk, butter and cheese! All this and more on the ROR Morning Show with Bob Bronson, LBF, and Brian Podcast. Find more great podcasts at bPodStudios…The Place To Be For Podcast Discovery
1st BIRTHDAY LIVE SHOW!We love Green Guide Letters about Derryn Hinch (as written by Derryn Hinch!), free to air smut, Tom Waterhouse, week 6 of #StampleGate & THE RETURN OF ARTHUR COMER!Plus Derryn's Green Guide Letter Groupies, ankle bracelets, the Moon landing, hung over on Hey Hey and the origins of SHAME SHAME SHAME!"Taped in front of a live studio audience" at Rue Bebelons!HEAR EVERY EPISODE EVER, EXCLUSIVE LIVE EPS & BRAND NEW EPISODE PRESHOWS!SUPPORT OUR PATREON FOR $3 PER MONTH!https://www.patreon.com/iLoveGGLetters This episode is brought to you by The Sure Store.Take advantage of Sure's Lockdown Hook Up!Purchase over $99 and receive your choice of Sure clothing at HALF PRICE!New sneakers from Nike, Vans & New Balance just arrived!TheSureStore.com See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
https://terriblehappytalks.com/Instagram: @terriblehappytalksKai Paul is a close friend, long-time Bali expat, entrepreneur, environmentalist, activist, and co-founder of footwear brand Indosole. For those that listen to the show regularly, you will know that Kai is a past guest and in this week's episode he is with me live from his home in Canguu, Bali to check-in, gives us the low-down on Bali during the pandemic and much much more. This conversation really flowed well, and it is immediately obvious that Kai is more passionate than ever to continue to advocate for the environment and his island home...Bali. ShanKai supports and advocates for:Sungaiwatch Punk PanganCOMPANIES THAT SUPPORT THIS PODCASTUse the THT code!!!INDOSOLE Code: THT(15% discount shipping is WORLDWIDE and fast).Sandals made from recycled Tyres. Timeless footwear for the conscious consumer.KingPin Skate ShopCode: THT(Get 15% Discount)Best Skateshop in Australia!Best shoe range ever: Vans, Nike, Adidas, Lakai, Fallen, Etnies (and more).Rad clothes (To many to mention)Best skateboard brands: Baker, Girl, Chocolate, FA, Hockey, Antihero, Passport (and way more).Australian owned and operated. Best dudes ever! Get on dat code.KRUSH ORGANICS - CBD oils and topicalsCode: THT(Get a HUGE 40% Discount...shipping is WORLDWIDE and fast).Purveyors of the finest CBD oils and topicals. I think long and hard about who I want to be affiliated with, and I'm stoked to embark on a new affiliation with Krush Organics and advocate for the use of CBD products for supplementary use. Do the research yourself, the health benefits are unquestionable. It's done so much for me, especially during times of stress and anxiety, it's improved the quality of my sleep and sped up my recovery time especially post workouts. And it's all natural.Write a review on Apple Podcasts and give a 5 star rating.Thanks for listening!Big love and respect,ShanSupport the show (https://terriblehappytalks.teemill.com)
WELCOME BACK TO FINGER SPACE PODCAST! In honor of season 2, we are offering 15% discount for all listeners - use code Season2( www.fingerspace.co/ ) - the ultimate place for fingerboard and miniature gear - Want to connect with other fingerboarders?Join our Discord channel : (discord.gg/mnXSukDU5y) Don't forget to follow our host and guest on Instagram:GooLTD : (https://www.instagram.com/goo.ltd/)Fingerspace: ( https://www.instagram.com/fingerspace.co )Nostalgia : ( https://www.instagram.com/nostalgia_fb/ ) Follow Fingerspace on Social Media: Instagram: ( https://www.instagram.com/fingerspace.co )Subreddit (MiniHobbies) ( www.reddit.com/r/MiniHobbies )Facebook : ( https://www.facebook.com/Fingerspaceco )Youtube Channel : ( https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZAZr6H_Q16YIj3bWaClKnQ?view_as=subscriber ) Check out our website for more information : ( https://www.fingerspace.co )This podcast is hosted by NostalgiaFB and produced by Fingerspace.coCHECK OUT OUR NEW GEAR ( https://www.fingerspace.co/ ) Please consider subscribing and sharing this episode if you found it entertaining or informative. If you want to go the extra mile, you can leave us a rating or review which helps the show with rankings and algorithms on certain platforms. you can leave us a review on Podchaser or Apple Podcasts Make sure you're subscribed to the podcast so you get the latest episodes. Our Podcast Page : ( http://fingerspace.transistor.fm/subscribe )Subscribe with Apple Podcast ( https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fingerspace-a-fingerboarding-podcast/id1554810723 )Follow on Spotify ( https://open.spotify.com/show/4U4cZzP9SBPSDcE8Ww6vqI )Subscribe with Stitcher ( https://www.stitcher.com/show/fingerspace-podcast )Subscribe on IHeartRadio ( https://iheart.com/podcast/78023014/ )Listen on other streaming platforms ( https://link.chtbl.com/fingerspace ) DISCLAIMERAny and all opinions expressed are solely the hosts and guest(s) and do not represent or express the views or opinions of Fingerspace.co
Adam and Daniel are back again with the white Vans! And much like the relevance of the opening sentence of this description, the things they talk about are behind the times. Something about a house-warming party and snacks? Did they talk about snacks or I am just hungry while I am writing this? A snack does sound delicious. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org Voice: http://voicemail.mixminuspodcast.com
Dave Ramsay, half of the duo behind Dave & Matt Vans, started his van journey five and a half years ago in an effort to reduce his expenses and free up some resources so he could start his own business - NOT the same one as the van build company he has today. He had so much success with this that his entrepreneurial endeavors grew and he started many new enterprises along the way.Shownotes for THIS episode: https://hollycpriestley.com/dave-ramsay-uses-van-life-to-facilitate-his-entrepreneurial-dreams--dave--matt-vans/Support the Podcast:Venmo: https://venmo.com/Holly-PriestleyPaypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/hollycpriestleyPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/hollycpriestleyFollow Me:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hollycpriestley/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HollyCPriestley/Website: http://hollycpriestley.com/The Tools I Use to Produce This Podcast:Buzzsprout (Get $20 by using this link to set up your own Buzzsprout account: https://www.buzzsprout.com/?referrer_id=844573 )iMovieZoomAn old, refurbished MacBook Air I've owned for....at least 5 yearsCanva (Earn a Canva Credit by using this link to set up your own Canva account: https://www.canva.com/join/lsk-vdb-msf )--Basically, nothing special. I started creating this with the tools that were available to me and they're largely free to use. Intro & Outro Music: Wallpaper by Kevin MacLeodLink: https://incompetech.filmmusic.io/song/4604-wallpaper/License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This description contains affiliate links. If you decide to make a purchase, I may receive a small kickback which helps to support the channel and bring you more content like this. Thanks!
Welcome to episode #792 of Six Pixels of Separation. Here it is: Six Pixels of Separation - Episode #792 - Host: Mitch Joel. She's known as a "tough-love" advisor to Fortune 500 companies. Juliet Funt is a keynote speaker and Founder of the efficiency training firm, Juliet Funt Group. Juliet is also the author of the newly-published book, A Minute to Think - Reclaim Creativity, Conquer Busyness, And Do Your Best Work. She is an evangelist for freeing the potential of companies by unburdening their talent from busywork, and she has brought her powerful concepts to brands like Spotify, National Geographic, Vans, Sephora, and beyond. According to Juliet: "The global workforce today is so fried that it belongs in a food booth of a county fair. We're relentlessly behind the curve, dousing fires everywhere, and our 3 a.m. insomnia provides the only unscheduled thinking time of the day." This pandemic hasn't helped. Want to rethink your productivity and workflow? Enjoy the conversation... Running time: 50:50. Hello from beautiful Montreal. Subscribe over at Apple Podcasts. Please visit and leave comments on the blog - Six Pixels of Separation. Feel free to connect to me directly on Facebook here: Mitch Joel on Facebook. or you can connect on LinkedIn. ...or on Twitter. Here is my conversation with Juliet Funt. A Minute to Think - Reclaim Creativity, Conquer Busyness, And Do Your Best Work. Juliet Funt Group. Follow Juliet on LinkedIn. Follow Juliet on Twitter. This week's music: David Usher 'St. Lawrence River'.
Website: https://terriblehappytalks.com/Instagram: @terriblehappytalksLouisa Hawton is a mother, skateboarder, 2 x boxing world champion and Australia's only current WBC world champion! Louisa lives with passion, an open heart, and an innate desire to inspire others to be the best version of themselves! In 2019, Louisa was awarded the Supreme Boxing Female Fighter of the year, and in this week's episode, she is with me live from Perth Australia, to share her journey, experiences, challenges and hopes for the future. Louisa advocates for:TAKING CARE OF YOUR MENTAL HEALTH.Beyond BlueCOMPANIES THAT SUPPORT THIS PODCASTUse the THT code!!!INDOSOLE Code: THT(15% discount shipping is WORLDWIDE and fast).Sandals made from recycled Tyres. Timeless footwear for the conscious consumer.KingPin Skate ShopCode: THT(Get 15% Discount)Best Skateshop in Australia!Best shoe range ever: Vans, Nike, Adidas, Lakai, Fallen, Etnies (and more).Rad clothes (To many to mention)Best skateboard brands: Baker, Girl, Chocolate, FA, Hockey, Antihero, Passport (and way more).Australian owned and operated. Best dudes ever! Get on dat code.KRUSH ORGANICS - CBD oils and topicalsCode: THT(Get a HUGE 40% Discount...shipping is WORLDWIDE and fast).Purveyors of the finest CBD oils and topicals. I think long and hard about who I want to be affiliated with, and I'm stoked to embark on a new affiliation with Krush Organics and advocate for the use of CBD products for supplementary use. Do the research yourself, the health benefits are unquestionable. It's done so much for me, especially during times of stress and anxiety, it's improved the quality of my sleep and sped up my recovery time especially post workouts. And it's all natural.Write a review on Apple Podcasts and give a 5 star rating.Thanks for listening!Big love and respect,ShanSupport the show (https://terriblehappytalks.teemill.com)
CHECK IT OUT: John Brannon is here! Today on the show, one of the most important vocalists of all time stops by to discuss punk. Listen in as Damian sits down with his biggest musical influence to talk: Static vs. Detroit Punk, the Minor Threat shows that bookend Detroit Hardcore, turning Nirvana on to Lead Belly, scaring the shit out of Ryan Gosling and so much more! THIS IS NOT TO BE MISSED!!!! And don't miss the first ever release of one of the most storied lost recordings in punk history: Static's "Toothpaste And Pills"! Out on Thirdman Records now! Also touched on: A dream episode punk before punk Alice Cooper Static: Class Of '78 A faster Mott The Hoople: Sex Pistols at midnight on the radio Reading about it in Creem Being at the Kiss “Alive” gig The first smell of weed: Rocking out to Judy Collins in '69 Hearing the Stooges “Kick Out The Jams” on CKLW Destroy All Monsters at the Red Carpet “It was horrible”: Detroit first wave punk Fallout: John's first band Terrorizing Grosse Point Thurston and the tape “Everything I'm doing is wrong”: Discovering Hardcore Ben Blackwell is the reason Toothpaste and Pills: the stage show “They all sucked” The Coronation Tavern in Windsor “Minor Threat is going to kill Negative Approach” The Allied OP and Graham join The death of a scene Violence overtakes the scene metalheads becoming Oi Boys The Birthday Party changes everything “We aren't ready”: opening for Black Flag for the first Hyenas show “Fake NA”: The third line-up Laura Lee “I wanted more violence” where the NA sound would have gone Hating Evacuate… still Hangin' with Belushi going to Fear on SNL “New York SUUUUUUCCCCCKKKKKKS” Detroit: the Sweden of punk “We don't come from the Beach Boys and the Beatles. We like the Stooges” AND SO MUCH MORE!!!! Brought to you by Vans
Welcome Walljangers to another Lugnutz Podcast with Big Brother and Mattman, talking about all the latest in automotive news. Tonight Mazda's more powerful software, Toyota's already producing hydrogen kits, Audi's fighter land jet, Boston tech company and a Hyundai, , Polestar wants to build a climate neutral car, Volkswagen's urban EV on Molly, Nissan's electric van, and so much more. As always thanks for listening and until next week Drive On!
This week, in Gresham, Oregon, horrified bystanders watch as a dead & naked body is tossed off a 75 foot cliff, and into the river below. This starts a mystery that travels across several states, and brings us to some of the most troublesome, awful people that can be imagined. In the end, the question is, was this a premeditated act of extreme violence, or a case of a swinging night & wild threesome gone wrong? Along the way, we find out that Italians are everywhere, that you should look for witnesses before dumping a body, and that finding your soul mate, may not always the best thing for the world!! Hosted by James Pietragallo & Jimmie Whisman New episodes every Thursday! Donate at: patreon.com/crimeinsports or go to paypal.com & use our email: email@example.com Go to shutupandgivememurder.com for all things Small Town Murder & Crime In Sports! Follow us on... twitter.com/@murdersmall facebook.com/smalltownpod instagram.com/smalltownmurder Also, check out James & Jimmie's other show, Crime In Sports! On iTunes, Stitcher, or wherever you listen to podcasts
How hard is it to take a step forward? Sometimes it's easy, and sometimes we just need that one person to help encourage us to take that step! My guest today is Leticia Blaquerose, a mindset coach and business foundation strategist. Leticia is passionate about helping people work on their mindset so they can take that step into finding their fulfillment. She also shares her story of how she found the courage to take the steps she needed to find her purpose. Join me today as I try on Leticia's Vans tennis shoes. •To learn more about Leticia Blaquerose click here•Remember when you walk in Other People's Shoes you get a different perspective!•Other People's Shoes would love your financial gift to help support the show click here•Have questions or want to give feedback call or text: 203-548-SHOE•If you enjoy the show consider subscribe on your favorite podcast platforms, so you don't miss an episode. We would also love it if you could leave us a review click here!•To hear other episodes go to:www.opspodcast.com•Social Media:**Facebook: Instagram: Twitter: ** @opspodcashow
WELCOME BACK TO FINGER SPACE PODCAST! In honor of season 2, we are offering 15% discount for all listeners - use code Season2( www.fingerspace.co/ ) - the ultimate place for fingerboard and miniature gear - Want to connect with other fingerboarders?Join our Discord channel : (discord.gg/mnXSukDU5y) Don't forget to follow our host and guest on Instagram:Sid/Vicious274 : (https://www.instagram.com/vicious274/)Fingerspace: ( https://www.instagram.com/fingerspace.co )Nostalgia : ( https://www.instagram.com/nostalgia_fb/ ) Follow Fingerspace on Social Media: Instagram: ( https://www.instagram.com/fingerspace.co )Subreddit (MiniHobbies) ( www.reddit.com/r/MiniHobbies )Facebook : ( https://www.facebook.com/Fingerspaceco )Youtube Channel : ( https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZAZr6H_Q16YIj3bWaClKnQ?view_as=subscriber ) Check out our website for more information : ( https://www.fingerspace.co )This podcast is hosted by NostalgiaFB and produced by Fingerspace.coCHECK OUT OUR NEW GEAR ( https://www.fingerspace.co/ ) Please consider subscribing and sharing this episode if you found it entertaining or informative. If you want to go the extra mile, you can leave us a rating or review which helps the show with rankings and algorithms on certain platforms. you can leave us a review on Podchaser or Apple Podcasts Make sure you're subscribed to the podcast so you get the latest episodes. Our Podcast Page : ( http://fingerspace.transistor.fm/subscribe )Subscribe with Apple Podcast ( https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fingerspace-a-fingerboarding-podcast/id1554810723 )Follow on Spotify ( https://open.spotify.com/show/4U4cZzP9SBPSDcE8Ww6vqI )Subscribe with Stitcher ( https://www.stitcher.com/show/fingerspace-podcast )Subscribe on IHeartRadio ( https://iheart.com/podcast/78023014/ )Listen on other streaming platforms ( https://link.chtbl.com/fingerspace ) DISCLAIMERAny and all opinions expressed are solely the hosts and guest(s) and do not represent or express the views or opinions of Fingerspace.co
Oakland 5 Patron Shaun Bernstein hosts this week's excellent episode! Savage Superstars Jason Kuntz and Taylor Jordan take on Ken and Neal. The guys are Naked and Afraid as they discuss lesser known uses for the Las Vegas sign while veering off course, joining the right hand drive countries. Which team will rise to the top? Supporters: https://www.trivialitypodcast.com/the-cream-of-the-crop/ Support us Directly: www.Patreon.com/TrivialityPodcast The long awaited crop tops and muscle tees! https://www.customizedgirl.com/s/Triviality?fbclid=IwAR3ybGL2NHeGkez4OL_sxbczpYOIFbvcveMjY4JOTy6HHqyUfW3v6CUBYuQ Please RATE, REVIEW, and SUBSCRIBE on iTunes or your preferred podcast app! Follow us on social media, and support the show on Patreon for great perks! www.TrivialityPodcast.com www.Facebook.com/TrivialityPod www.Twitter.com/TrivialityPod Want to hear your trivia question during an episode? Send us question to the email: TrivialityPodcast@Gmail.com with the subject QUESTION 5 and a host's name (Ken, Matt, Neal, or Jeff). We will read one listener submitted question per round. [New Episodes Every Tuesday] © Triviality – 2021
Welcome, Junior Wizards! This week, we create one of the most important lore details in the history of AMFC... what is a wizard van in Fantasy? Lets meet Zal Lonesomeroad and get to the history behind the greatest idea we have ever had.
Episode 130 has been delayed one day from September 4th to September 5th. As a result, the weekly roundup has been moved from September 5th to September 6th.Songs used- Tuff Data by Vans in Japan & Desert Brawl by Vans in Japan
Website: https://terriblehappytalks.com/Instagram @terriblehappytalks***Father's Day Special***Glenn is a husband, father, skateboarder, musician, founder of the legendary skateboard brand; Criminal skateboards, former team manager of clothing brand SMP, founder of the epic swing band “the Louisville Sluggers”, founder of The Rad Dads Club, and founder of the the TILT channel on Youtube. Born and raised in the north western suburb of Sydney Australia Baulkham Hills, Glenn is a larger than life character who is deeply significant in the history of Australian Skateboarding. In this week's episode, Glenn is with me live from his home in Melbourne to share his journey, experiences, challenges and hopes for the future. Happy Father's Day!ShanGlenn supports and advocates for:Prostate Cancer ResearchR U OK DayBeyond BlueCheckout Glenn's work:Rad Dad's Club websiteTilt Channel TVCOMPANIES THAT SUPPORT THIS PODCASTUse the THT code!!!INDOSOLE Code: THT(15% discount shipping is WORLDWIDE and fast).Sandals made from recycled Tyres. Timeless footwear for the conscious consumer.KingPin Skate ShopCode: THT(Get 15% Discount)Best Skateshop in Australia!Best shoe range ever: Vans, Nike, Adidas, Lakai, Fallen, Etnies (and more).Rad clothes (To many to mention)Best skateboard brands: Baker, Girl, Chocolate, FA, Hockey, Antihero, Passport (and way more).Australian owned and operated. Best dudes ever! Get on dat code.KRUSH ORGANICS - CBD oils and topicalsCode: THT(Get a HUGE 40% Discount...shipping is WORLDWIDE and fast).Purveyors of the finest CBD oils and topicals. I think long and hard about who I want to be affiliated with, and I'm stoked to embark on a new affiliation with Krush Organics and advocate for the use of CBD products for supplementary use. Do the research yourself, the health benefits are unquestionable. It's done so much for me, especially during times of stress and anxiety, it's improved the quality of my sleep and sped up my recovery time especially post workouts. And it's all natural.Write a review on Apple Podcasts and give a 5 star rating.Thanks for listening!Big love and respect,ShanSupport the show (https://terriblehappytalks.teemill.com)
EP274 - Warby Parker and AllBirds IPOs Warby Parker and AllBirds filed their S-1 registrations with the SEC in preparation of making an initial public offering. In this episode we deep dive into all the information revealed in the fillings. Surprising Learnings From Warby Parker And AllBirds IPO Filings (forbes.com) Episode 274 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Wednesday September 1st, 2021. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 274 being recorded on Wednesday September first 2021 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scott Wingo. Scot: [0:40] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason and Scot show listeners Jason we have a lot of favorite things on this podcast but you know it's even cooler than some fresh Amazon quarterly results hot new Gadget. Even some exciting Star Wars news. Jason: [0:55] No what's God. Scot: [0:57] A fresh delicious hot out of the oven S1 and you know it's better than S1. Jason: [1:02] I'm guessing to S ones. Scot: [1:04] You are right that is right we have we're very excited this week because not only do we have one s one but we have two s ones so I don't know if that's an S 1 squared or S2 or how we talked about that I guess 2's ones, and what's really exciting is one of our favorite topics on the show is digitally native vertical brands also called dnv B's and we have two of them that filed within a week of each other so that's pretty exciting so the two are Warby Parker and allbirds and before we do a deep dive into those S ones and highlight some of the things that we found that were interesting for listeners I wanted to give everyone just kind of a reminder of a great way to read an s-1, so an s-1 is. [1:52] Haven't haven't done a gone public before it's kind of like a sandwich so you have three parts you have this kind of first part where there's all this introductory stuff and you're kind of like CIA in that part and then you get into the delicious sandwich part of the the meat and potatoes of this one which is commonly called management discussion and Analysis they called em DNA and that's the best part because really management actually writes that now they have a lot of guidance from lawyers and investment bankers and PR firm in all this Jazz but it's really most of the times it is the founders you know putting pen to paper and describing the business and their words then after that you have the lawyers kick in and then you have a pretty good chunk of risk factors and then the accountants kick in and you've got your your your Gap financials and all that stuff and all that's interesting but if you're going to I always start a nest one from the middle out so I like to read that mdna first because it's the best way to hear about the company from the founders. [2:54] Now Warren Buffett and his Charlie Munger they always kind of famously start at the back of this one and they like to start at the audited financials and that's kind of how they look at a business and that's important but especially for these I think it's pretty interesting because you know it tells us why the founders do this dnv be thing how's it going how do they think about their business what are the key metrics they're looking at inside of there and I think that's particularly relevant for listeners of this show because you can learn a lot you know these businesses may be there ahead of you or behind you and your scale but it I always learned a ton about. [3:34] You know what other operators are doing and thinking about their business and you pick up a lot of interesting new tidbits there may be things you like and don't like that you can add to your repertoire. Jason how do you how do you peel into a delicious yummy new S1. Jason: [3:49] Yeah well I mostly take your advice that I guess to two alternative views is just skip the s-1 entirely and wait for the retail Roadshow and so you can kind of watch a movie instead of have to do all this math and read. Scot: [4:02] Yeah I like the retail Roadshow too but sadly it comes weeks after this one so this one is like an appetizer before you get to the movie. Jason: [4:10] Yeah and II may be uniquely odd in this regard but I do find it amusing and humorous to read the risk factors. I know they have nothing to do with the business and weren't written by anyone that has anything to do with the business but I feel like. They're increasingly more creative in the voluminous wig west of apocalypses that could. Could strike the Earth and I want to say like of the hundred seventy one page Warby Parker S1 about a hundred pages of it is the risk factors. Scot: [4:42] Yeah, yeah and I mean it is fun to read but you're taking the right approach at it what drives me crazy is actually went through and looked at a bunch of the headlines for both these companies and I would say about 1/3 to 25 percent of the. Press that covers you things you know to be and I don't know if this is just lack of understanding or clickbait or some combination of those things but they always pull out the risk factors so you'll see you know allbirds is worried about Nike as a competitor and you know and then you're like what did they read about that and they've just pulled out a the competitor list of the risk factors well the lawyers are saying you know if anyone has ever sold a shoe put them in the risk factors you know it's not like it's not like the founders in their own words are staying up late at night worried about Nike but maybe they are but. Most of that stuff is not the founders words it's lawyers kind of saying you know here's a checklist list everyone that you've ever think you thought you've competed with now that's their guidance. Jason: [5:42] Yeah I mean the list of competitors isn't remotely shocking it's more of the zombie apocalypse that makes me chuckle. Scot: [5:48] Yeah and now there's all these, yes every time new legislation comes out you have to add a risk factors know it's like you know GDP our cyber security we use cloud computing that could go down we it's kind of like you have to think of everything that's ever happened and you want to cover it so that if you do get sued you can say well it was a risk factor you should have known we warned you. Cool so we flipped a coin and you are going to kick us off with a deep dive into or be. Jason: [6:21] Yeah yeah so we'll jump right into it and we'll start with some of the financial metrics per your point is pretty interesting because these are. Private companies they don't necessarily disclose a lot of this and so you kind of go from like a pretty vague view of these companies to a pretty detailed View and if you're some other DMV be that still private like there's great benchmarking data in here so Warby Parker. [6:48] 20/20 in this is all complicated because of course 2020 was an anomalous year 2020 revenue for Warby Parker was just under 400 million in sales so 393 million and kind of to give you a progression they were 272 million in 2018 then they jumped up, 370 million in 2019 and then you know a much smaller jump up to three hundred and ninety-three million in 2020. The more eye-popping number is they have six months of data from 20 21 and they're already at 270 million in 2021 so if you kind of compare first six months of this year to first six months of last year. Last year there were 176 million this year there are 270 so they're definitely seeing a nice clip of growth. And obviously as you grow bigger you would hope that that scale would help you with profitability when you're you know small and still you know in growth mode it's sometimes hard to make a profit, and in this case. It doesn't appear like they've achieved that escape velocity where they're starting to turn a profit yet like the gross margins are. [8:00] Are in a reasonable ballpark they're pretty consistent in the kind of 658 to 60% range and so they are generating. Net positive ebit has but they basically have had a net loss every year except 2019 when they broke even. So what's a little worrisome about that is. [8:26] You know you like if you look at 2018 you said hey they sold 270 million and they lost 22 million on it in 2019 they sold 370 million and they broke even. Like that's looking like a pretty good Trend that scale starting to help them with their profitability but then in 2020 where they had a lot of extra costs from covid and as we'll talk about in a bit they're somewhat store. They were even bigger 393 and they had their biggest loss ever 55 million, and they're doing better this year but they're not on a path to profitability this year either so they're the on the 270 million they've sold this year they've lost 7.3 million. Um before I jump further does any of that financial news sort of surprise you at all Scott or does that. Scot: [9:17] Now I have a different opinion but well we're going to do a little kind of analysis again. Jason: [9:22] I like it cliffhanger. Scot: [9:23] Yeah yeah. Jason: [9:24] So one of the interesting things well a all these digital native Brands you start off by like generating some buzz and selling some stuff to people that are already friendly to you and it's super easy sales and and cost to get those sales is very low but then pretty quickly all these companies go into digital advertising mode and they buy ads on Google and buy ads on. [9:47] To grow quickly and the first ads they buy a relatively cheap because, that they can you know Target a very specific audience and there aren't a lot of other people buying that exact same audience so the, the cost per ad is low and so the the customer acquisition cost can be pretty reasonable but as you get bigger. [10:06] You have to buy a bigger chunk of audience from Facebook and more people are competing for that same audience and it's a reverse auction so you have to pay the most to get the ad and so growing purely on this digital ad business. Pretty challenging particularly when Google and Facebook are so good at optimizing the the the maximum cost per ad and so. For almost every DMV be we've ever talked about they they have trouble scaling and they almost always Implement some new tactics later in their evolution to kind of scale beyond the digital ad phase and so in war Beast Partners case they were one of the first retailers to say, the MVPs to say hey we need to open a bunch of stores and stores can be really profitable billboard to help dramatically improve our customer acquisition costs so by 2018 they already had 88 stores, and right now they have a hundred and twenty-six or a hundred forty five stores so so they have a reasonable Fleet of stores that has grown pretty pretty quickly. Obviously there's a lot of extra costs for running those stores and obviously those stores didn't do particularly well in covid. [11:21] So some of the interesting things about the stores is that like in 2018 sixty percent of the revenue came from e-commerce forty percent of the revenue came from retail about the same in 2019 but as they jumped up there store counts and 2020 that. So in 2020 sixty percent of the revenue came from these retail stores 40 percent came from ecom's so the store is really are becoming the primary acquisition Channel. It's super interesting to look at the. [11:54] The unit economics of a customer how expensive it is to acquire a customer how much money they make on each customer has sticky each customer is and different s ones you know give, different granularity in case of Ori Parker they reported a customer acquisition cost so they said that in 2018 they spent $26 per customer to acquire customers. In 2019 they said they spent $27 to acquire customers and in 2020 and the pandemic influenced year they had to spend more they spent $40 per customer to acquire customers now put a big Asterix on that there's some controversy will get to in a minute but. If you take those numbers on face value those are pretty darn good customer acquisition cost for this kind of business other. [12:42] Kind of did you a native vertical brands that have have done it s one have disclosed some kind of eye-watering Lee expensive customer acquisition costs and so famously like Blue Apron was paying $400 a customer to acquire customers so so even $40 a customer it's pretty reasonable to kind of put that in perspective in 2020 they were getting about 218 dollars in sales per customer which is a little over two orders, um so the the the unit economics are potentially viable. Except for that sgna line and all the expensive advertising that they're having to do which is ultimately driving that those those net losses. So those were kind of my big. [13:31] Takeaways and I alluded to a controversy friend of the show and former guests Dan McCarthy who's a assistant professor Emery and one of the true gurus and in clv um he looked at this as one and at first he was like wow that's a really good customer acquisition cost they should be commended and then he like started reading the fine print and they've used a novel definition of customer acquisition costs they've divided all of their expenses by all of their customers and. About sixty percent of their customers are returning customers so in theory. You shouldn't be dividing all of your digital marketing by your total number of active customers you should be dividing it by the new active customers and that's kind of the traditional definition that Dan and most of the rest of the world use we don't know what that number is for Warby but it's probably a lot higher than the. Forty dollars that would be disclosed based on this kind of unique definition of customer acquisition costs. Scot: [14:39] They did they kind of elaborate on that or. Jason: [14:44] No they didn't at all. Scot: [14:45] And easier he just kind of picked it apart and like there was no. Jason: [14:48] Yeah like they like there's not enough data in the s-1 to try to estimate a. Revised customer acquisition cost now what Dan has done in the past is he's gone a hold of credit card panel data. And kind of backed into like customer acquisition cost by looking at the the. The spend from you know the from customers I haven't you know I don't know that he's done that analysis yet for these guys are the even has access to the data to try but. Yeah so at the moment we don't know what their khakis I have to be honest you like even if. You you kind of like double it because you say like oh they should have only been chart you know counting all these costs against the 40% new customers and not against the hundred percent active customers. You're still at like 80 dollars which is expensive you you can't make money spending $80 for a customer that you only sell $180 to. It's still better than a lot of these other companies that we've looked at. Scot: [15:58] The worse is Casper were the cactus a good couple hundred dollars higher than the mattress. Jason: [16:04] Yeah and I would say. Like these guys have about the most mature store model of any of these companies like Casper's up there too but the next company will talk about allbirds has a lot less stores so, you know if the opening your own stores is the way to lower kak then you would expect to see it in Warby Parker's S1. And my my takeaway from this is. Either you have to get to a much bigger and you're going to say something in a minute that potentially disagrees but either where we Partners hypothesis is you have to get to a much bigger number to get profitable. And so maybe you know instead of one or million run rate I need a billion dollar run rate. Or you need an alternative customer acquisition strategy beyond your own stores and digital ads which are the two tools warble uses and I would also argue where B is. About as good as it gets at sort of organic demand generation and they do they do great like social they do gritty like they do all the other guerrilla marketing tactics so like. [17:15] Um I would you know if they're not profitable on 390 million with their type of product it seems hard to imagine that someone else with the same type of product. Is going to do much better because they seem like a externally they seem like a darn good execute. Scot: [17:37] Yeah isn't in the die where category is dominated by the luxacore Oslo Exotica and they own like everything right so they do they have you know they have a licensed almost every frame like. Jason: [17:50] Yeah almost every designer brand you've ever heard of is a is actually like license to Exotica. Scot: [17:58] Yeah then they own the. Jason: [18:00] And they own a bunch of the chains of retail stores. But they also do wholesale so Exotica like both sell all those license frames to the third parties. And they sell through their own stores, and they sell at a way higher price point than Warby Parker so they have way more margin like you know part of the premise of Warby Parker is the eyewear should be affordable so their average per glasses is $95 whereas. Like that the aov firm exotic is going to be much higher. Scot: [18:33] Yeah I do I'm not a customer but I knew I do know people that are and they do tend to buy more I've heard him say is anecdotal but I've heard him say especially women they'll say you know the prices are low enough I can buy a two or three different pairs that kind of they almost become accessories at that just kind of interesting. Jason: [18:48] So that's what I was hoping to see right like you go man I've been part of a frame cost $500 I can't own that many frames but if they cost a hundred dollars I might have different ones for different outfits right or. Right and so yeah like. Could their average order value be much higher but on average they're only selling 2.14 pair of frames per customer. So they're like again frame is $95 their average revenue per orders $184. Um so they're not necessarily like seeing a huge kit I'm sure their customers like you describe but they're not there are apparently are not enough of those customers that that's. [19:28] Change dramatically changing the economics also where we park our his kind of expanded to be a vision care company rather than just eyeglasses so they launched contacts they have optometrist services in all the stores and you might go oh wow I wonder how those things are contributing and at the moment / this one they're not, like the the all the non glasses products cumulatively are about one percent of Revenue and all the Professional Services are one percent of Revenue so these the the eyeglasses are 98% of their business now maybe that means there's a lot more growth there. [20:05] But like my so my overall take away. These numbers did not surprise me in terms of Revenue it was about exactly where I would have expected I wasn't sure they would be profitable by now it wouldn't have surprised me if they were so it's a little concerning to me. That they're that they're not. Again if a ton of this loss in 2020 is because of the pandemic and they really did break even on 370 and if they find a way to end up profitable in 2021. Um I'm their biggest Revenue year ever then you know that that probably looks pretty good but I can tell you a ton of people were shocked by these numbers a ton of people thought Warby Parker was much bigger a lot of people were speculating that they were near or over a billion dollars in annual sales which I did not view is very likely and so I think this is kind of a. [21:01] Glass of cold water in the face of a lot of the DMV be Fanboys and d2c Fanboys that like these guys are, are basically the poster child for that whole segment and they're better than most of the other ones and you know even they do not have. Home run financials and so you know frankly like this this bodes poorly for the financials of a lot of other like apparel DMV bees that we haven't seen yet. Scot: [21:33] Well I guess my seemingly controversial take is when. You know when you talk to these investment bankers there's all of this data that indicates that you should really focus on growth and not profitability if you're if you're if you're in a category like this which you know the pitch is there's this new way to build a brand it's direct-to-consumer it's digitally native yeah we're having some stores so by focusing on ibadah you're essentially saying we were making profit and we, need this we don't have anything to spend it in essentially because it's just going to kind of move over to your balance sheet especially when do an IPO you're in a load of the balance sheet with presumably at least a hundred million maybe more so. When you when you look at the data especially at this scale it's much better to lose money or to not get profitable for years because. You want to pump all that into growth so every dollar you can drive into growth gets a much bigger multiple than a dollar that goes to the bottom line. [22:42] So yeah so that's that's why and then the other challenges once you're profitable. It's kind of hard to undo it the classic example is Amazon in our retail world you know how many times have you and I heard retailers complained that Amazon is a profitable this is when they weren't profitable today they are only say they're not profitable, eventually Amazon got to the point where they just couldn't not be profitable so but you know for a good kind of like, I don't know 20-year run their they weren't profitable so they were the extreme example of this and it gave them much more leverage over like a Walmart who had been printing ibadah never got used to it and got valued off eBay doc then you can't go in and say, there's a new disruptor and hey everyone we're going to we're going to stop being ibadah positive and growing even on we're going to focus on the top line to you know our spend. 500 billion on some fulfillment centers so it yeah I think it's appropriate and I'm sure you know the risk factors that's going to be probably one of the first ones is we. I don't plan to make money and we may never make money so yeah so I think it's actually. I would almost expecting to be losing more you know if I look at kind of 21 so a lot of these. [24:04] S ones they do a six-month view because they don't want to update it every quarter its kind of pain wdesk one while you're in process so they'll do it like a six-month you and I believe their six-month view was 270 million Revenue so that put them in a 540 anyone's is that what it was the okay. Yeah and then loss is 20 that's even a lost that loss of seven so losing 14 on that that's. Jason: [24:31] The well the even has our positive by the way the it's only the net loss that like so like they have they made 20 20 million ibadah on 270 million in sales in the first six months of this year so that's. Scot: [24:43] That must be the way you're some accounting the other thing that's really frustrating is a. Jason: [24:48] They have all sgna below that you badal line which is weird to me at least I don't like. Scot: [24:54] Yeah that is weird. Jason: [24:56] That's that's why you got from this yeah that's why you got get from this positive ebitda to this negative net loss. Scot: [25:06] Yeah this is one of the ways Amazon lost money for so long is they would capitalize the leases on now it's become an SEC rule I think this gets kind of the edge of my accounting knowledge. Jason: [25:16] Yeah and they didn't there was not like detailed disclosure about the real estate so I that is an interesting question how they finance these stores and do they own them and all that stuff but. Scot: [25:25] So I would almost say. As in a potential investor I'd rather get to a billion dollars faster and have a negative ebitda a light you know at a 500 million they had like a hundred million ebitda law side. I actually kind of think that's okay especially if they could grow faster. Jason: [25:44] Yeah and so I'll just say I generally agree with you and I certainly get the argument about profitability the the bigger concern for me is there an 11 year old company that's executed about as well as you can execute done all the things that the talking headset are smart to do and they only got two with a super compelling value proposition and very high MPS scores and they still only got to 390 million so I like my biggest cautionary take away from this whole thing is it's way harder to get to a billion dollars then people realize and none of these companies have done it not one have them have gotten to a billion dollars in run rate unless you call like white cloth digitally native vertical brand. So I do think scaling is hard and if it's hard for these guys it's going to be a heck of a lot harder for these why you know companies that want to be super Capital light and not have stores and and all of those things and I well I. Don't over worry about the profitability I will tell you the unit economics are mildly concerning their making a custom product like they have to you know make those lenses for each customer and if they're having to spend $80 to acquire a customer that only half their customers are buying a second time they're only getting a hundred and or 218 dollars in revenue from each customer and they have to make a custom product in that it just like. [27:13] I'm not saying they can't get to profitability at a billion dollars but it's. It doesn't look like a home run business I could it still could be a good investment right and I mean as long as there's someone that's willing to pay more for your stock after you own it not saying the stock won't do well at all but it doesn't look like. A company that's likely to just you know generate like obscene free cash flow like Amazon does. Scot: [27:40] Yeah I bet if you looked at a kind of store cohort you'd be happier with the profitability and maybe that was something. Jason: [27:49] Yeah I would have loved to see that in this one and obviously they didn't put it in there. Scot: [27:53] Yeah you know and and yes so they must have been advised that the institutional investors aren't going to be that concerned that I think. I think they're actually close enough with the lines are the lines are converging so you know you can kind of see if you just kind of. Plot them out you can see they'll cross no get profitable because they're already been up positive So eventually they'll get to that net loss off when the lines are diverging like Lyft and Uber when they went public they had to spend a lot of time in there s one talking about well we know our lines are diverging but it's because we're if you take our cities that are over a year old they're very profitable and the reason our losses are growing faster than revenue is because we're opening city so fast and that's how investors got comfort in that example. Jason: [28:37] Yeah and their lines are diverging from 19 to 20 now they're going to say well but that's covid-19. Scot: [28:43] Yeah yeah that's project I could see that. Jason: [28:44] No I'm sure does yeah and especially again because stores. So Scott what did you learn from the allbirds S1. Scot: [28:56] Yeah allbirds was it was a good read I enjoyed it it was different you know so I kind of appreciate that having read a lot of these it was less dry of any S1 especially the mdna section was felt like the founders had definitely put their heart and soul into it I don't know if you do you listen to the podcast how I built this they. A really good episode on there and you know the thing another thing I appreciate about allbirds is there's consistency there every time you every time I hear one of the founders I go in a store have an online experience Packaging. They're very purposeful and brand message is very very tight in and until you try to do that it's hard to appreciate how hard it is to execute on that so, so I just really felt like that was interesting that even this one kind of landed on me as if you know the same vibe that I got from the store and the product and everything so that was really cool and kudos to them on that probably the most interesting thing about the allbirds S1 is they try to kind of tilt it and they say look we're not going to do an IPO we're going to do an S peo and what they're essentially doing is saying we want to elevate the discussion and talk a lot about sustainability and so they call it a sustainable public Equity offering and spe now I'll get into more of that but I wanted to go into some of the numbers first. [30:26] So on the number side there 2019 Revenue was a hundred ninety-three million and then in 2020 they did 219 million so so that's 13 percent year-over-year growth. [30:38] So that was interesting to me and then they it has accelerated from 20 22 21 looking at the six month period to 27 percent, they unfortunately there they've got a fair amount of international business you've got this kind of no Financial impact of currency conversion the FX is what they call it so do their 25 or 27 depend on depending on the currency situation but let's call it mid-20s and. So that's interesting so they've got accelerating Revenue growth which Wall Street loves to call that ARG ARG and then they broke out digital and said that it was 89 percent of their business and in 2020 that was a hundred ninety-four did you see that going down because part of their use of proceeds is opening a lot more stores they have 27 stores as of the IPO so June. [31:33] June 20 and then I've been 21 and then they have the pretty much say you know one of the we're going to open a lot more stores and it's gonna be a big push for us they also are losing money they're losing about 40 million a year so kind of twenty percent of Revenue is being lost which kind of feels you're going to lose money you might as well lose you know twenty Thirty forty percent of of Revenue to accelerate so that felt more in line with kind of what I've seen is public-private kind of vc-backed company coming into the public markets couple highlights on the other metrics they talk a lot about how their nudging gross margins up they in 2018 gross margins were at 47% and then moving up to 51% and a good expansion there on the margin side that's pretty typical as you scale and you start to nail down with any kind of manufactured product there's definitely margin benefits of scale right because you're buying more pallets of wool I don't know what we'll comes in sheep's of wool and you're getting more you know your. Paying off your fulfillment centers and you're taking a lot of these fixed costs you just putting more stuff through them so on a unit basis it drives in Crete drives down your unit cost just driving up your gross margins. [33:00] They were they were much more silent on cackle TV than what you saw with Laura B and so some of the data they had was they try to repeat customers and that number has gone up and. 2019 it was 46 percent of their revenues from repeat customers and then that was up in twenty twenty two fifty three percent they last raised a hundred million on 1.7 billion and I'll come back to that and then let's see the biggest thing about their IPO I hinted at the top with this spe oh is there all about sustainability and it's pretty interesting because some people they just kind of throw that in there in the hopes that there's the public markets there are increasingly large number of either, purposely built vehicles for investors that want to focus on this area or. [33:55] There's a big investors that are moving this way one of the biggest public investors is called Black Rock and they run out, huge massive amount of capital most of it in mutual funds but I think they have some hedge funds and whatnot and their CEO is basically put a Line in the Sand and said by can't remember the year but let's call it 20 30 or something like that they are going to shed any investment it doesn't really have kind of a framework around sustainability and you know. What people uses This Acronym ESG so environmental social and governance in essentially everyone wants companies to to self report what they want to do across those three dimensions and even the SEC is started kind of hinting and recommending that companies that they're going to start doing some things here and requiring them in things like us ones and then, the thing that's really interesting in a public company that I didn't learn until I was kind of deep inside of one a lot of these mutual funds so you go public and you have this new set of shareholders that are largely got mutual funds you've got index funds and you've got hedge funds and then retail which would be individual people like buying to their Charles Schwab well the mutual funds in the index funds when you. [35:17] When every year you put out these different things that you want your shareholders to vote on well they they don't like to vote on those things they like to defer that to a third party and there's several of these third parties once called ISS and the other ones called, glass Lewis or something like that and these third parties therefore become very powerful because they aggregate a lot of the, you know because these decisions are referred to them they thus aggregate a lot of power from your shareholders and they are really starting to get where they are they're saying you know even that's going to be kind of the first Domino to fall I think where they're going to say hey the recommendations we make on your board and comp and all these things that they have to opine on to the, to to the shareholders that have Outsource that to them they're going to really focus in on ESG so so it's a big movement and there's a lot of even CNBC runs like a every other day segment on this topic because it's become such a big big deal and you know I actually think it's good I think you know you would as a as you know. [36:24] Public means transparency and I think companies should be transparent about this stuff and if if they say you know I don't know where we're a liquor company and we're not really focused on this that's fine or if they say we're all birds and this is going to be a huge differentiator for us that's fine too it just you know at least let potential shareholders know where you are on the spectrum of things okay so that's the background the. [36:51] So these guys say look we we think this is so important we want to put a stake in the ground and we've come up with 19 criteria that we hope we're going to be the first we're going to kind of self rate ourselves against these criteria and they fall against, cross effectively two categories for each of the es and the D environmental societal and governance so it's things like you know they want to be carbon neutral they're going to like an environmental they're going to favor vendors that that kind of have a similar carbon neutrality and sustainability mindset to them and on the governance side they're going to have more diversity on their board and those kinds of things. [37:31] One of the interesting things they do explicitly State and this caused a lot of noise on Wall Street is they when you go public you get all these people there's kind of this this literal they call it the book so let's say you're going to sell a hundred million worth of shares you do your Roadshow and then you typically end up with maybe a more orders than you have shares she'll get 300 million so one way to you have an allocation problem so one thing you can do is you can just cut everyone back to a third and you can say well you want to 10 million now we're give you three that's how you could Jam 300 million of demand into a hundred million dollar opportunity well these guys have said is we're actually going to your allocation is going to depend on where you are as an investor as it relates to ESG so essentially they're saying if you're like one of these companies like BlackRock that that is really kind of pushing the foundation there we may give you your full allocation but if you're this kind of hedge fund that doesn't really even have a website and no statement on this then you may get no allocation or a smaller size allocation so that was pretty interesting that's the first time that's been done and that that was kind of. [38:37] Pretty interesting on that so encountered an actually mentioned sustainability in the s-1 over 200 times which is it just shows how important it is to them and you know a lot of companies. Tried this out but allbirds was founded with this right the whole idea of allbirds was could you find sustainable products to make a shoe with and they started with the wool even the soul is made from a plant-based material, if it was obvious like she shows her something to remember what it is. Jason: [39:07] I Scot: [39:09] But it's not rubber it you know it's not a you know there's two types of rubber there is a plant-based rubber from a rubber tree but most rubber is obviously from a petroleum-based so the other thing I thought was interesting is the essentially layout they have five pillars essentially and they basically say hey here's our five pillars we're going to be product Innovative platform Purpose Driven brand with an inspired voice. [39:38] Connections with our repeat customers around the globe so so Global and repeat customers are important to them vertical retail distribution strategy robust infrastructure creating a platform for scale the sequence of those is pretty interesting because again the first one is product Innovation and then second one is purpose-driven and that's where they capture a lot of the ESG stuff. [40:00] The I thought for listeners this would be the most interesting one is vertical retail distribution strategies I just wanted to add one will highlight here are digitally LED vertical retail distribution strategy combines our digital offerings with our stores so we can meet customers where they are delivering value and convenience with our store serving as brand begins our company was born online from the outset we developed a direct convenient digital platform for our customers we opened our first store and 2017 have since been expanding yada yada so and then they wrap up and say in 20 as of June 30 we 20:21 we had the ability to reach up to 2.5 billion consumers in 35 countries across our digital and Retail platforms so I thought that was pretty interesting where they're basically saying this D and B, be thing even though we're at a relatively small scale we think it's still important part of our future and stores are really more of a brand, front face to the digital back and so I thought that was interesting, let's see that some data on repeat analysis but you know the. [41:10] Those are the highlights they that is really confusing table where people bought more than their repeat purchase rate went up. [41:19] I kind of get wrapped up in a chicken and egg thing there because like just by buying more haven't you already made your repeat purchase go up like I couldn't unpack that in my head but I need and up figure that one out for me look at a secret credit card data my analysis on this one so that those are the kind of highlights my analysis was this one was shockingly smaller than I would have thought you know I. I kind of backed in this because I had heard that valuation of 1.6 on their last they're kind of in this unicorn status here 1.6 billion in your like okay a lot of these Brands you look at kind of public comps you get 325 x as an e-commerce company so let's give them a generous valuation of 5x so they must be three or four hundred million and then. Turns out they're kind of in this lower 200 or 300 million scale so that was like well they must be growing at a crazy Pace because if you're going at a hundred percent then you can still get a really nice vault. A super-sized multiple like they must be that makes them hopefully even higher right so there like a times multiple but they're really not they were going 25% so it's kind of a bit of a head-scratcher for me and I'm really curious to see how the IPO does because I kind of assumed I'm not smarter than than all these investors have looked at this and put this price tag on it so I must be missing something so you know the things I think I may be missing. [42:43] You know there's there's a lot of talk they've partnered with Adidas and they're definitely going after the running category and so taking on Nike if you can build anything that's, no one 20th of a Nike that's a big brand so that could be people could be looking at this and seeing the optionality of that is this could be you know counter to Nike this ESG piece it could be that there is an supply-demand imbalance I think. [43:15] I think this is definitely the case where there's a lot more ESG aware dollars looking for places to invest than there are places to put them, so that could be a factor maybe there's some bullish bullishness on the store business where people have done models they say well if they're at, 25 stores and they go to 250 that's going to the growth is going to accelerate a tremendous base so you know I kind of swirl all those around and you know it is interesting so I then I kind of put myself and say well if I was going to be with Nike how would you go about them and Nike doesn't have a lot of weaknesses and yeah they're ten years ago you and I would have said while their weaknesses are not going direct to Consumers but they've largely fixed that right and you've got a lot of you've got a whole deck on that that's excellent so that's not a weakness anymore and but you know Nikes weakness is could be there is a, you know and I don't know any facts on this it's just there's a lot of noise out there right that there's these Chinese labor camps that their products are made in and these sweatshops and children making the shoes and then certainly so there's there's kind of that that they're kind of unclean sourcing if you will. [44:32] People claiming it I have no idea what's going on there and then you know there is an argument to be made that Nike to my knowledge hasn't done a lot to say wow our products are sustainable in these ways is just really isn't their thing so so it is a clever way to attack Nike and maybe it's actually a combination of all these things that investors see and they say we think this is a pretty clever way to attack Nike they're going to get some market share because we think it's important to Consumers it's important to us and they kind of scroll all that together and that's why it gets the bigger multiple so I may be curious to see how the IPO does to see if, that multiple holds up or in a there's definitely something going on there or maybe it was just an anomaly in the private Market. Jason: [45:20] Yeah and in both cases like the. The economics of the IPO aren't really revealed yet right like we're a ways away from from like Target prices and like understanding what the valuation is going to be for the IPO. Scot: [45:37] Yeah yeah you know these guys that could have effectively a Down Round where they essentially say hey we want. Jason: [45:42] Both have raised a lot of money at some like reasonably High valuations. Scot: [45:48] Yeah and you know they probably wouldn't be going public if the bankers weren't telling them they're going to get. Yeah I really nice mark up unless there was some desperation reason and I just don't they're not burning enough Capital that I don't think the existing investors couldn't sustain them for years so so mi bat is the bankers think that they're going to do really well and we'll see a big pop so it will say. Jason: [46:18] Yeah well if you think so a I would say like one of the things that encouraging so a one thing a few things to remember that are different between these two companies is allbirds is much younger than Warby Parker so I want to say Orbeez like 11 years old allbirds is like 5 years old so there earlier in their evolution that 27 stores versus a hundred forty five stores and that's a. A huge difference because a big expense in having stores is advertising to get people to your stores and you know. Beyond the digital advertising which is very expensive per customer like traditional advertising is much less expensive but you have to buy traditional advertising. Based on a metro area and when you only have 27 stores it means basically you're buying an ad to that getting amortized for a single store whereas when you have a hundred and forty-five stores you can have six stores in a a big Metro and that same ad is driving customers to six doors so my first thing I would say is. It seems like they're committed to a store strategy but they're early in the face like they could get an ice pop as they open more stores because all of the marketing and advertising that they're already doing spending money on, will work much harder when they get to a little bigger feet of stores and the. There are economies and scale of running a fleet of stores versus at 27 stores they're probably pretty inefficient. Scot: [47:48] Yeah they talked about how they've had they've invested in some distribution centers into the store so they're probably over distribution Centered for you know 25 stores. Jason: [47:58] So I do think the stores thing is encouraging, um I always am uncomfortable on the whole Purpose Driven thing so because I guess I'm going to mines and you didn't mention it but I think one of the novel things about them is they're one of the first companies to go public that's a certified B Corporation. Scot: [48:16] There's several others so there's that brand for girls nothing to you. Jason: [48:28] Okay well it's I mean regardless a hundred percent think as a marketing tactic that you're a hundred percent right like there is a cohort of customers that really care about a variety of these different missions and Nike doesn't particularly appeal to a lot of them right and so. Kind of providing a viable alternative you know is certainly a way to win a segment I do think. They're very credible like they've been talking about this this sustainability purpose since the very beginning they've invested in it the shoe is more expensive to make because of some of the sustainability choices that they've made so it's not just kind of. [49:12] Ecology washing on top of a you know a greedy brand and like I think their claim in their in their last one is that the the shoe has a like 30% less. Less ecological footprint than a traditional shoe and I think traditional she was code named for Nike by the way. So so I do think they are they are credible in their Purpose Driven thing and there's a. At the moment there are all these surveys of consumers that o gen Z is way more purpose-driven and and way more so than older cohorts they say that you know they really care about a brand that aligns with their goals and they care about the ecological issues and ethical issues in all of these different things and it feels like Auburn's is well positioned to cater to those customers so superficially you go oh nice it's a. It's a growing favorable Trend in there a strong executor at it and I think some of that is legitimate. [50:16] But in the back of my head there's this this famous academic paper from like 8 years ago called the myth of the ethical consumer and basically all young consumers have always said in surveys that they care about these various missions but when you look at their spending habits, there their convictions are a lot less strong than their stated preferences are and so I do I worry. [50:43] About completely hanging my hat on consumers doing the right thing when they're there. [50:50] Happily buying a lot of Nikes obviously I did also think it's interesting. Obviously the unit economics are wildly different than Warby Parker because of the nature of the product but they have 3.3 million us consumers worry Parker has two million consumers despite the fact where we Partners got this way bigger Fleet of stores and has been marketing for six more years so, so they are getting decent reach, both companies disclose their MPS scores their net promoter score and and they're both astronomically high and allbirds is even higher than Warby Parker so they. They're making their customers happy. They're doing well the one thing that jumped out at me as a opportunity is for allbirds that would be harder for worry Parker is. Okay you start out purely online and you're growing through digital ads and then you start opening stores and you invest a bunch in opening your own stores what other levers could you pull if you need to get your customer acquisition cost down. And it's not obvious to me what the big ones are for for Warby Parker, a play that some similar companies to allbirds have run is expanding in a wholesale once once they sort of reach a plateau and allbirds absolutely could do that as well and so it again my takeaway from both of these companies is. [52:17] Scaling is way harder than the the Twitter DTC Universe realizes they all want to imagine these companies are much bigger than they are because they've raised a bunch of money. It turns out raising a bunch of money doesn't equal winning a bunch of customers not saying these two companies can't be wildly successful in win a bunch of customers, I'm just saying it's really hard it's a huge competitive advantage to be a big company that already has a bunch of customers. And it's hard to start a new brand from scratch and catch up and these both of these are examples of that and it's going to be really interesting as they keep trying to grow to see what. What new things they try to accelerate that growth. Scot: [52:59] Yeah absolutely and I was curious I just looked it up allbirds is an 86 net promoter score and War B's latest measure is 83. Jason: [53:08] And those are both astronomical and side note there's some controversy about how people measure it in the inventors of the metric. Our kind of annoyed with how everyone's misusing it so it's not guaranteed that that's perfectly Apples to Apples but. That those numbers kind of fit with the consumer sentiment that I've experienced for both brands. Scot: [53:32] Yeah yeah we do a whole show on the purity of net promoter score. Jason: [53:37] That would be awesome. Scot: [53:40] But that in with some attribution man that's a party right there. Go well it wouldn't be a Jason and Scot show if we didn't have a little bit of. Jason: [53:52] Amazon news new your margin is there opportunity. Scot: [54:04] That's right we got a couple in lausanne news items the one I wanted to chat with you Jason is, Amazon announced they are partnering with buy now pay later firm a firm so that was an interesting one did that take you by surprise. Jason: [54:21] It did it totally did not it didn't surprise me at all that they're getting into buy now pay later it's a huge trend. In a way like I knew they didn't have one but it kind of when I heard it read it and I said it to myself out loud I was cut it's kind of shocking. That they're just now adding it now they have dabbled in the past. With with much earlier iterations of these sort of installment plans but what totally took me by surprise is that they chose a firm like a a firm is working with a lot of. Direct Amazon competitors that aren't going to be happy about this I'm thinking of for example Walmart. And so I'll be curious to see how that flushes out and have a firm can successfully keep both of those clients happy that would be impressive and frankly there's just so much money to be made in this space and an Amazon scale I'm somewhat surprised that they didn't do it themselves. Scot: [55:14] Yeah that shocked me to the thing is I've been digging into these being the combi and pills and it's really interesting so if you look at a firm karna and a bunch of these, you know what they're finding is the under 30 year old consumer, doesn't like the way credit card debt Works where you have this pool of you know that you can pull down and then it accumulates they much prefer to match it with a purchase and pay off the purchase and it's really interesting to read about that and then the the both the firms in there s ones they have a lot of data around us and increasingly even after they've gone public there's more data coming out about this trend so I was I was thinking. You know why Amazon has they if you're a seller though and you money you know they've got their own credit card there's got to be like. What is the larger Banks kind of effectively inside of Amazon that doesn't really Market itself as a bank because it doesn't want to be regulated like a bank maybe that's part of what. Triggers them not doing it. Jason: [56:16] Dress fear about yeah Fair. Scot: [56:18] Yeah there's any trust thing but it is funny you know we've been at this long enough I remember. I'm old enough to remember there was this startup called bill me later and they came on the scene and Amazon used it and you know loved it and was actually giving them quotes that conversions were up 20 percent and then eBay bot eBay / PayPal but Bill Me Later and Amazon ripped them off the site the next night it was controversial and we're all like holy cow I can't you know I think we're all shocked how quickly Amazon turned that off after seeing his praises so it is kind of funny to watch now Amazon jump back into it you know probably been 15 years at this point back into it and partner up with the firm so I almost kind of wondered if. Maybe there was an investment phase but also doesn't Shopify own a chunk of a firm like there's an alliance there too which is another it's unlike Amazon to lay down you kind of have connections into. Competitors even one degree away with a firm in the Middle With both Walmart and Shopify it all. Jason: [57:22] And there is Juicy data at play in this service so it is it is interesting. Scot: [57:28] Yeah days was famously he wouldn't ever he really didn't want to buy any Google ads because he didn't want them to see what they're up to. Jason: [57:36] No I mean part of me would almost suspect that Amazon is like trying to learn on a firm and that it wouldn't be a long-term deal but I entirely speculation. Scot: [57:46] I think both of our Spidey senses are tingling on this one and we'll keep an eye on it then there was a battle of press releases where Amazon Walmart said we're hiring 20,000 people and then Amazon du ha ha we're hiring 50,000 so that was that was the other Amazon news I saw. Jason: [58:02] Yeah I saw that too I got to be honest to me those were nothing Burgers it's super complicated both of those companies hire a ton of seasonal Labour way more than that right and. Sidenote like targets hiring a hundred and thirty thousand people for Christmas so those numbers just didn't seem that impressive and if I was if I was Walmart my press release would have said hey we've hired 500,000 people since covid-19 like that seems that's true and that seems a lot more impressive than than the 20,000 I guess what is interesting in both cases is, this is not seasonal labor these are full-time jobs just dedicated to fulfilling e-commerce orders so that's kind of interesting. [58:42] And two other tiny pieces of Walmart news in the the time that we don't have left Walmart did announce. An enhancement to their advertising echo system so they have a thing called the Amazon or Walmart connect and they launched a DSP for that. Demand-side platform it's a way to use Walmart data to Target segments and by ads both. On Walmart so walmart.com and in Walmart stores but also um across the the interweb using Walmart's first-party data and as we talked about in our privacy show as it's harder to use Google and Facebook targeting because of all these privacy concerns. It makes sense that that retailers are trying to maximize The Leverage they have with their 1p data Walmart has the most customers so they have the most wimpy data and so that that's kind of an interesting evolution of their ad platform and a potential competitive Advantage for Walmart. [59:47] And then another one that's just kind of interesting that I didn't necessarily expect Walmart launched a new delivery platform. Which is delivering goods for other retailers. So they call it Walmart Go Local and essentially you can be independent owner operator you know, in a town and sell stuff for home delivery and Walmart will use their network of owned delivery. People in vehicles to pick stuff up from your bakery and drive them to a customer for a fee. Scot: [1:00:19] Yeah we'll see how that goes I don't know if I want my bakery to be delivered by Walmart. Jason: [1:00:27] Yeah I mean there's a number of issues it just to me it's interesting because obviously Walmart used to be a pure retailer you know you're seeing them lean into a lot of services they it was a few weeks ago but they announced this deal with. With Adobe whether they're they're selling software to Adobe and now they're selling delivery services to you know Main Street when you know used to be the narrative was that Walmart was putting Main Street out of business so it just it's interesting to see the evolution of Walmart. Scot: [1:00:57] I've whenever Walmart talks about some of the services they show kind of a low WalMart delivery vehicle that looks a lot like an Amazon Prime van. Jason: [1:01:06] Yeah they have a lot of different they have kind of a patchwork Fleet of delivery services and some of them use different vehicles but you you maybe more expert in the Walmart delivery Fleet than I am. Scot: [1:01:20] I just see this picture and it I think a lot about Vans everyday and it resonates with me. [1:01:32] I appreciate it thanks for looking out for me well we are out of time and one of the topics we wanted to cover but what with all the juicy IPO news didn't get to this time but will dedicate neck so to it is there is a lot coming up we're kind of coming in to wear it the past the halfway point of Q3 and all eyes will turn to Q4 with the holiday season it's going to be really unique this year because we cut the covid thing we've got the Delta variant we've got all kinds of crazy weather going on with hurricanes so as a retailer it's a really wacky time and one of the things we want to talk about next show is ship again so we coined that here on the show last year and turned out to be probably bigger than even we anticipated what's going on with that and 2021 I see a lot of time thinking about Vanagon there's also chip again so which which caused Vanagon so with want to talk about all the geddens that we're seeing out there. And then also you know there's a lot of interesting things going on the supply chain we've been you know the team here at the Jason Scott show and our many analysts have been listening in to the quarterly results and and talking to retailers about this and we have a lot of information to share on that kind of T up what we think the holiday is going to look like from from those angles. Jason: [1:02:55] Wow that sounds like an awesome show I can't wait to hear it. Scot: [1:02:58] I know I cannot wait for us to make it. Jason: [1:03:01] Will Scott it's happen again we've totally used up our allotted time as always if this was valuable we sure would appreciate that five star review on iTunes and only takes a second it's easier than ever before to leave it jump over there give us a review and make sure you're subscribed to get that next podcast Scot teas. Scot: [1:03:21] Absolutely thanks everyone and until next time… Jason: [1:03:24] Happy commercing.
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Kenny Beats is a music producer living in Los Angeles. We chat about MLK on Fortnite, the resurgence of the flat earth movement, peeing in bottles, Mark Ronson admiring a chair made by Vans shoes, how Kenny ended up in Burbank, taking over Ron Artest's studio space, the future of recording music, Rick Rubin taking him under his wing, building an ecosystem during quarantine, moving from EDC to BET, Kenny meeting a fellow listener of the pod at Halsey's victorian film premiere, and on the heels of Donda we get some legendary Mike Dean stories. https://twitter.com/kennybeats https://twitter.com/donetodeath https://twitter.com/themjeans --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/howlonggone/support
We had the pleasure of interviewing Urethane over Zoom video! Pop-punk outfit URETHANE featuring legendary Hall of Fame professional skateboarder and guitarist Steve Caballero has signed to Cyber Tracks. Their debut album Chasing Horizons was produced, engineered, and mixed by Cameron Webb (Motörhead, Megadeth, Alkaline Trio, NOFX, Pennywise) and is due out on September 24, 2021. The band will be touring as well including some festival appearances.The album title was derived from the song “Wyoming” – a song about giving up, running away, and starting over. “There is a line where the character is on an open road chasing the horizon and it just made sense,” explains bassist Chad Ruiz. “During the short life of this band we have been chasing horizons non-stop. It's that kind of fun feeling you get when you're just out on the road going for it. We are very blessed to be chasing horizons.”Chasing Horizons is jam-packed with catchy choruses and melodic hooks that range from mid-tempo sing-a-longs to aggressive fist-pumping screamers. Also, it was written during quarantine so the lyrical theme leans a bit dark. From depression (“Gravity”) to narcissism (“Avalanches” feat. Toby Morse of H2O) to the bad traits and genetics we inherit and are forced to live with (“Inheritance” feat. Jim Lindberg of Pennywise) to being your own worst enemy (“Love Letter Bombs”) to contentious relationships (“What You Get”) to love conquering even the darkest times (“What Becomes Of Us”) – lead vocalist and guitarist Tim Fennelly examines the challenges of everyday life.URETHANE formed during the infectious pandemic in 2020. The lineup consists of vocalist/guitarist Tim Fennelly (War Fever), guitarist Steve Caballero (The Faction, Odd Man Out, Soda), bassist Chad Ruiz (Skipjack), and drummer Dylan Wade (The Bombpops). Their musical roots are undeniably influenced by punk rock, pop-punk, and melodic hardcore. Chasing Horizons is set for a September 24, 2021 release via Cyber Tracks.URETHANETim Fennelly – Vocals/GuitarSteve Caballero – GuitarChad Ruiz – BassDylan Wade – DrumsWe want to hear from you! Please email Tera@BringinitBackwards.com.www.BringinitBackwards.com#podcast #interview #bringinbackpod #foryou #foryoupage #stayhome #togetherathome #zoom #aspn #americansongwriter #americansongwriterpodcastnetworkListen & Subscribe to BiBFollow our podcast on Instagram and Twitter!
Class is in session! This week on the show Damian is joined by the author of the amazing memoir "I'm Not Holding Your Coat" and celebrated teacher: Nancy Barile! Listen in as the two discuss the formation of the American East Coast hardcore scene. From early Philly New Wave, to the economic realities behind what gets canonized in punk, to why Jackal is the coolest punk and so much more! NOT TO BE MISSED! And, don't miss Nancy's fantastic "I'm Not Holding Your Coat" on Bazillion Points! Available at your favourite bookstore now! also touched on: Kenn Kweder The Ramones and Blondie “Philly never gets its due” The class differences in the early hardcore scenes having to sell a school ring to pay for the Sadistic Exploits 7” The 1981 explosion Punkfest SSD The Stick Men Headcheese the art/punk divide Pure Hell are gods When Jackal hits the scene Going to New York… somehow The NY before the HC Hating DC The board daylight Boston scene Bad Brains “Kill anyone with a beer in their hand” AND SO MUCH MORE!!!! Brought to you by VANS