Podcasts about Aumann

Ich dachte lange, ich wäre ein guter Chef – weil ich mit meinen Jungs zur Baustelle gefahren bin, mittags die Stulle geteilt habe und abends noch ein Bier mit ihnen getrunken habe. Doch dann kam der Wendepunkt: Drei meiner Mitarbeiter kündigten gleichzeitig – und ich merkte, dass Nähe keine Führung ist. ► Mission Mittelstand das Unternehmer-Event! Jetzt Ticket sichern:https://mission-mittelstand.com/ticket25-pdc► Buche jetzt dein unverbindliches Geschäftsführergespräch unter:https://matthias-aumann.de/podcast

In dieser Folge spreche ich darüber, warum du als Unternehmer im Jahr 2025 nicht mehr abwarten darfst, wenn es um Künstliche Intelligenz (KI) und Digitalisierung geht.Ich zeige dir, warum Fleiß allein nicht mehr reicht, um wirklich voranzukommen – und wie du stattdessen mit cleveren digitalen Systemen Zeit, Geld und Nerven sparst. Dabei teile ich nicht nur meine eigenen Erfahrungen als Unternehmer, sondern auch echte Praxisbeispiele von Partnerbetrieben aus dem Mittelstand.Ich sage dir ganz ehrlich: Wenn du die Chancen nicht nutzt, wird es dein Wettbewerb tun – gegen dich.► Mission Mittelstand das Unternehmer-Event! Jetzt Ticket sichern:https://mission-mittelstand.com/ticket25-pdc► Buche jetzt dein unverbindliches Geschäftsführergespräch unter:https://matthias-aumann.de/podcast

In dieser Folge spreche ich darüber, warum genau jetzt der richtige Zeitpunkt ist, ein neues Wirtschaftswunder zu entfachen. Ich erkläre, warum Stillstand keine Option ist, wie du in Krisenzeiten Chancen nutzt und was erfolgreiche Unternehmer anders machen. Bist du bereit, dein eigenes Wirtschaftswunder zu starten? Dann hör jetzt rein! ► Melde dich jetzt kostenlos zum Workshop an:https://mission-mittelstand.com/ws-30-03-25-pdc► Mission Mittelstand das Unternehmer-Event! Jetzt Ticket sichern:https://mission-mittelstand.com/ticket25-pdc► Buche jetzt dein unverbindliches Geschäftsführergespräch unter:https://matthias-aumann.de/podcast

Viele Unternehmer verzetteln sich jeden Tag aufs Neue: Sie probieren tausend Dinge gleichzeitig aus, wechseln ständig die Strategie und wundern sich, warum sie keinen nachhaltigen Erfolg haben. In dieser Folge spreche ich Klartext!Ich zeige dir die drei elementaren Dinge, die du 2025 meistern musst, um dein Unternehmen krisensicher und profitabel zu führen:✅ Klarheit – Wo stehst du, wo willst du hin, und warum?✅ Langfristige Kundenbeziehungen – Warum die meisten Unternehmer hier massives Potenzial verschenken.✅ Strukturen & Digitalisierung – Wie du endlich aufhörst, Geld zu verbrennen.► Buche jetzt dein unverbindliches Geschäftsführergespräch unter:https://matthias-aumann.de/podcast► Weitere Infos zu Mission Mittelstand: https://mission-mittelstand.de

Wie schafft man es, als Unternehmer Familie und Business unter einen Hut zu bringen, ohne sich selbst oder die Beziehung zu verlieren? In dieser Folge sprechen Anastasia und ich offen darüber, wie wir Grenzen setzen, Schuldgefühle vermeiden und trotzdem als Unternehmerpaar erfolgreich bleiben.Wir teilen unsere persönlichen Erfahrungen, sprechen über Erwartungen, Pausen, Rollenverteilung und warum Reflexion so wichtig ist. Wenn du wissen willst, wie du dein Unternehmen führen kannst, ohne dass deine Familie darunter leidet, dann hör unbedingt rein!► Buche jetzt dein unverbindliches Geschäftsführergespräch unter:https://matthias-aumann.de/podcast► Weitere Infos zu Mission Mittelstand: https://mission-mittelstand.de

Hallo und herzlich willkommen zu einer neuen Episode von Mission Mittelstand – der Unternehmer-Podcast!Der Mittelstand ist das Rückgrat Deutschlands, doch wir werden von Steuern, Bürokratie und explodierenden Abgaben erdrückt. Während die Politik verwaltet, statt zu führen, kämpfen wir jeden Tag für die Zukunft unseres Landes.In dieser Episode zeige ich dir, warum der Mittelstand das nächste Wirtschaftswunder einleiten wird, was wir dafür brauchen und warum die Bundestagswahl 2025 ein Wendepunkt für Deutschland werden muss.Erfahre, warum der Wirtschaftswahntag unser Weckruf ist – für mehr Mut, Zusammenhalt und Verantwortung. Denn Deutschland ist zu groß für kleine Ziele!► Buche jetzt dein unverbindliches Geschäftsführergespräch unter:https://matthias-aumann.de/podcast► Weitere Infos zu Mission Mittelstand: https://mission-mittelstand.de

Joined by Joe Aumann, we discuss his passion for Deutsch-Drahthaars and the Verein Deutsch-Drahthaar Group North America, dog training, testing and more. Show Highlights: Quail hunting the southwest Javelina's, snakes and porcupines! Snake breaking with Don Lietzau - Tundramoor Kennel A shotgun fitting with Del Whitman The International Armbruster Judging and testing with Verein Deutsch-Drahthaar | Group North America Ruffed grouse hunting Vom Seymour Kennel SUPPORT | patreon.com/birdshot Follow us | @birdshot.podcast Use Promo Code | BSP20 to save 20% with onX Hunt Use Promo Code | BP15 to save 15% on Marshwear Clothing Use Promo Code | BS10 to save 10% on Trulock Chokes The Birdshot Podcast is Presented By: onX Hunt, Final Rise and Upland Gun Company Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Yisrael (Robert) Aumann is an Israeli-American mathematician and Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences. Renowned for his groundbreaking contributions to game theory, Aumann's work has influenced fields ranging from economics to political science. His research on repeated games and conflict resolution offers deep insights into cooperation and strategic decision-making. A dedicated professor emeritus at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Aumann remains active in the academic community, sharing his wisdom on mathematics, philosophy, and human behavior. Chapters: • Childhood and early influences • Making Aliyah and losing his son Shlomo HY"D • Career Joureny • Winning the Nobel prize Don't miss out on exclusive bonus content, as well as special offers and initiatives. Join the Shtark Tank Quiet Whatsapp Group today. Has Shtark Tank made even a small impact on your life? Email me at yaakovwolff@gmail.com with feedback, questions, comments. Click Here to check out Sichot on the Parsha from Rav Moshe Stav

In der heutigen Episode interviewe ich 17x Ironman Slatco Sterzenbach in unserem Mission Mittelstand Headquarter. Er gibt euch 5 Tipps, um euer Unternehmen erfolgreich zu machen. Interessiert? Dann hör rein! ► Jetzt kostenloses Erstgespräch für den AUMANN GRÜN ACADEMY DAY sichern:https://mission-mittelstand.com/ad-pdc► Sichere dir jetzt dein Ticket für die Geschäftsführer LATE NIGHT:https://mission-mittelstand.com/gfln-clp-12-09-24-pdc ► Mission Mittelstand das Unternehmer-Event! Jetzt Ticket sichern:https://mission-mittelstand.com/ticket24-pdc► Mein neues Buch "Unternehmertum ist eine Haltung - Warum dich Widerstände zum Erfolg führen"Jetzt bestellen: https://mission-mittelstand.com/buch-uh-pdc► Buche jetzt dein unverbindliches Geschäftsführergespräch unter:https://matthias-aumann.de/podcast ► Sichere dir jetzt 'How to Marktführer' und setze ein Zeichen für die Zukunft:https://mission-mittelstand.com/marktfuehrer-pdc► Der Mission Mittelstand Montageservice ist jetzt erhältlich:https://mission-mittelstand.com/montageservice-pdc► Deutschlands erstes digitales Leadership-Training für einen hochprofitablen Betriebsablauf: https://mission-mittelstand.com/lst-pdc► Melde dich jetzt zum Führungskräftetraining an:https://mission-mittelstand.com/fkt-pdc

In der heutigen Episode interviewe ich Philip Hopf live auf unserem Mission Mittelstand Seminar. Philip Hopf ist der Mitgründer und Geschäftsführer von HKC Management und der Host des erfolgreichen Podcasts „Hoss & Hopf“. Er gibt uns exklusive Einblicke und spricht über seine Glaubenssätze und, wie diesen den Mittelstand erfolgreich machen. Interessiert? Dann hör rein! ► Jetzt kostenloses Erstgespräch für den AUMANN GRÜN ACADEMY DAY sichern:https://mission-mittelstand.com/ad-pdc► Sichere dir jetzt dein Ticket für die Geschäftsführer LATE NIGHT:https://mission-mittelstand.com/gfln-clp-12-09-24-pdc ► Mission Mittelstand das Unternehmer-Event! Jetzt Ticket sichern:https://mission-mittelstand.com/ticket24-pdc► Mein neues Buch "Unternehmertum ist eine Haltung - Warum dich Widerstände zum Erfolg führen"Jetzt bestellen: https://mission-mittelstand.com/buch-uh-pdc► Buche jetzt dein unverbindliches Geschäftsführergespräch unter:https://matthias-aumann.de/podcast ► Sichere dir jetzt 'How to Marktführer' und setze ein Zeichen für die Zukunft:https://mission-mittelstand.com/marktfuehrer-pdc► Der Mission Mittelstand Montageservice ist jetzt erhältlich:https://mission-mittelstand.com/montageservice-pdc► Deutschlands erstes digitales Leadership-Training für einen hochprofitablen Betriebsablauf: https://mission-mittelstand.com/lst-pdc► Melde dich jetzt zum Führungskräftetraining an:https://mission-mittelstand.com/fkt-pdc

In der heutigen Episode erkläre ich, warum wir bei Mission Mittelstand das Homeoffice abgeschafft haben. Der Grund? Produktivität, Zusammenhalt und Innovationskraft. Die besten Ideen entstehen nicht im Homeoffice, sondern wenn Menschen zusammen an einem Ort arbeiten. Erfolg ist Teamarbeit, und das funktioniert am besten, wenn man sich begegnet und an einem Strang zieht.Wenn dich das Thema interessiert und du wissen willst, wie du diese Umstellung erfolgreich umsetzt – hör rein!► Jetzt kostenloses Erstgespräch für den AUMANN GRÜN ACADEMY DAY sichern:https://mission-mittelstand.com/ad-pdc► Sichere dir jetzt dein Ticket für die Geschäftsführer LATE NIGHT:https://mission-mittelstand.com/gfln-clp-12-09-24-pdc ► Mission Mittelstand das Unternehmer-Event! Jetzt Ticket sichern:https://mission-mittelstand.com/ticket24-pdc► Mein neues Buch "Unternehmertum ist eine Haltung - Warum dich Widerstände zum Erfolg führen"Jetzt bestellen: https://mission-mittelstand.com/buch-uh-pdc► Buche jetzt dein unverbindliches Geschäftsführergespräch unter:https://matthias-aumann.de/podcast ► Sichere dir jetzt 'How to Marktführer' und setze ein Zeichen für die Zukunft:https://mission-mittelstand.com/marktfuehrer-pdc► Der Mission Mittelstand Montageservice ist jetzt erhältlich:https://mission-mittelstand.com/montageservice-pdc► Deutschlands erstes digitales Leadership-Training für einen hochprofitablen Betriebsablauf: https://mission-mittelstand.com/lst-pdc► Melde dich jetzt zum Führungskräftetraining an:https://mission-mittelstand.com/fkt-pdc

Episode: 3109 Mathematics says that we should never disagree, but we still do.  Today, let's talk about what I know that you know.

Aumann, Georg www.deutschlandfunkkultur.de, Studio 9

Erfahre in dieser Episode, was KI wirklich ist, warum sie kein Hexenwerk ist und wie du sie sofort in deinem Geschäftsalltag nutzen kannst. Ich teile meine Erfahrungen und Tools, die ich selbst erfolgreich einsetze, um Prozesse zu optimieren und den Umsatz zu steigern. Verpasse nicht unsere "Geschäftsführer Late Night" am 08.08.2024, wo du noch tiefer in die Materie einsteigen kannst und praktische Tipps für dein Unternehmen erhältst. Die Veranstaltung widmet sich genau diesem Thema: Künstliche Intelligenz.► Sichere dir jetzt dein Ticket für die Geschäftsführer LATE NIGHT: https://mission-mittelstand.com/gfln-clp-08-08-24-pdc► Mission Mittelstand das Unternehmer-Event! Jetzt Ticket sichern:https://mission-mittelstand.com/ticket24-pdc► Mein neues Buch "Unternehmertum ist eine Haltung - Warum dich Widerstände zum Erfolg führen"Jetzt bestellen: https://mission-mittelstand.com/buch-uh-pdc► Buche jetzt dein unverbindliches Geschäftsführergespräch unter:https://matthias-aumann.de/podcast ► Sichere dir jetzt 'How to Marktführer' und setze ein Zeichen für die Zukunft:https://mission-mittelstand.com/marktfuehrer-pdc► Der Mission Mittelstand Montageservice ist jetzt erhältlich:https://mission-mittelstand.com/montageservice-pdc► Deutschlands erstes digitales Leadership-Training für einen hochprofitablen Betriebsablauf: https://mission-mittelstand.com/lst-pdc► Melde dich jetzt zum Führungskräftetraining an:https://mission-mittelstand.com/fkt-pdc

The taming of the shrewd: how do we rationally agree to disagree? In this podcast, Nick, Peter, Chris, and Fraser discuss the finer details of polite polemics, courteous clashes, and respectful repartees. Whether a code of conduct or dangerous hand-washing, they delve into the fundamentals of agreeing to disagree: from group identity and global significance to cultural pressure and mutual benefit. A few things we mentioned in this podcast: - Aumann's Agreement Theorem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aumann%27s_agreement_theorem For more information on Aleph Insights visit our website https://alephinsights.com or to get in touch about our podcast email podcast@alephinsights.com

In dieser Episode zeige ich dir, wie ich als Unternehmer sechs Wochen Sommerferien genießen kann, ohne dass meine Unternehmen darunter leiden. Erfahre, wie ich mit effizienten Systemen, klaren Prozessen und regelmäßigen Schulungen mein Business auch in meiner Abwesenheit am Laufen halte. Perfekt für alle, die nach mehr Freiheit im Unternehmertum streben!► Sichere dir jetzt dein Ticket für die Geschäftsführer LATE NIGHT: https://mission-mittelstand.com/gfln-clp-08-08-24-pdc► Mission Mittelstand das Unternehmer-Event! Jetzt Ticket sichern: https://mission-mittelstand.com/ticket24-pdc► Mein neues Buch "Unternehmertum ist eine Haltung - Warum dich Widerstände zum Erfolg führen" Jetzt bestellen: https://mission-mittelstand.com/buch-uh-pdc► Buche jetzt dein unverbindliches Geschäftsführergespräch unter: https://matthias-aumann.de/podcast ► Sichere dir jetzt 'How to Marktführer' und setze ein Zeichen für die Zukunft:https://mission-mittelstand.com/marktfuehrer-pdc► Der Mission Mittelstand Montageservice ist jetzt erhältlich:https://mission-mittelstand.com/montageservice-pdc► Deutschlands erstes digitales Leadership-Training für einen hochprofitablen Betriebsablauf: https://mission-mittelstand.com/lst-pdc► Melde dich jetzt zum Führungskräftetraining an:https://mission-mittelstand.com/fkt-pdc

Sick of hearing us shouting about Bayesianism? Well today you're in luck, because this time, someone shouts at us about Bayesianism! Richard Meadows, finance journalist, author, and Ben's secretive podcast paramour, takes us to task. Are we being unfair to the Bayesians? Is Bayesian rationality optimal in theory, and the rest of us are just coping with an uncertain world? Is this why the Bayesian rationalists have so much cultural influence (and money, and fame, and media attention, and ...), and we, ahem, uhhh, don't? Check out Rich's website (https://thedeepdish.org/start), his book Optionality: How to Survive and Thrive in a Volatile World (https://www.amazon.ca/Optionality-Survive-Thrive-Volatile-World/dp/0473545500), and his podcast (https://doyouevenlit.podbean.com/). We discuss The pros of the rationality and EA communities Whether Bayesian epistemology contributes to open-mindedness The fact that evidence doesn't speak for itself The fact that the world doesn't come bundled as discrete chunks of evidence Whether Bayesian epistemology would be "optimal" for Laplace's demon The difference between truth and certainty Vaden's tone issues and why he gets animated about this subject. References Scott's original piece: In continued defense of non-frequentist probabilities (https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-continued-defense-of-non-frequentist) Scott Alexander's post about rootclaim (https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/practically-a-book-review-rootclaim/comments) Our previous episode on Scott's piece: #69 - Contra Scott Alexander on Probability (https://www.incrementspodcast.com/69) Rootclaim (https://www.rootclaim.com/) Ben's blogpost You need a theory for that theory (https://benchugg.com/writing/you-need-a-theory/) Cox's theorem (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cox%27s_theorem) Aumann's agreement theorem (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aumann%27s_agreement_theorem) Vaden's blogposts mentioned in the episode: Critical Rationalism and Bayesian Epistemology (https://vmasrani.github.io/blog/2020/vaden_second_response/) Proving Too Much (https://vmasrani.github.io/blog/2021/proving_too_much/) Socials Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani Follow Rich at @MeadowsRichard Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link Help us calibrate our credences and get exclusive bonus content by becoming a patreon subscriber here (https://www.patreon.com/Increments). Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here (https://ko-fi.com/increments). Click dem like buttons on youtube (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_4wZzQyoW4s4ZuE4FY9DQQ) What's your favorite theory that is neither true nor useful? Tell us over at incrementspodcast@gmail.com. Special Guest: Richard Meadows.

One of our best mates has just gotten engaged, so, as all good mates should, we milked it for a podcast episode, discussing it through the lens of meta-knowledge, common knowledge, and Aumann's Agreement Theorem. If you're enjoying Recreational Overthinking, be sure to follow us. New episodes are released every second Tuesday morning. For enquiries, send us an email at: hjcusack@hotmail.com

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: My PhD thesis: Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology, published by Eric Neyman on March 17, 2024 on LessWrong. In January, I defended my PhD thesis, which I called Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology. From the preface: For me as for most students, college was a time of exploration. I took many classes, read many academic and non-academic works, and tried my hand at a few research projects. Early in graduate school, I noticed a strong commonality among the questions that I had found particularly fascinating: most of them involved reasoning about knowledge, information, or uncertainty under constraints. I decided that this cluster of problems would be my primary academic focus. I settled on calling the cluster algorithmic Bayesian epistemology: all of the questions I was thinking about involved applying the "algorithmic lens" of theoretical computer science to problems of Bayesian epistemology. Although my interest in mathematical reasoning about uncertainty dates back to before I had heard of the rationalist community, the community has no doubt influenced and strengthened this interest. The most striking example of this influence is Scott Aaronson's blog post Common Knowledge and Aumann's Agreement Theorem, which I ran into during my freshman year of college.[1] The post made things click together for me in a way that made me more intellectually honest and humble, and generally a better person. I also found the post incredibly intellectually interesting -- and indeed, Chapter 8 of my thesis is a follow-up to Scott Aaronson's academic paper on Aumann's agreement theorem. My interest in forecast elicitation and aggregation, while pre-existing, was no doubt influenced by the EA/rationalist-adjacent forecasting community. And Chapter 9 of the thesis (work I did at the Alignment Research Center) is no doubt causally downstream of the rationalist community. Which is all to say: thank you! Y'all have had a substantial positive impact on my intellectual journey. Chapter descriptions The thesis contains two background chapters followed by seven technical chapters (Chapters 3-9). In Chapter 1 (Introduction), I try to convey what exactly I mean by "algorithmic Bayesian epistemology" and why I'm excited about it. In Chapter 2 (Preliminaries), I give some technical background that's necessary for understanding the subsequent technical chapters. It's intended to be accessible to readers with a general college-level math background. While the nominal purpose of Chapter 2 is to introduce the mathematical tools used in later chapters, the topics covered there are interesting in their own right. Different readers will of course have different opinions about which technical chapters are the most interesting. Naturally, I have my own opinions: I think the most interesting chapters are Chapters 5, 7, and 9, so if you are looking for direction, you may want to tiebreak toward reading those. Here are some brief summaries: Chapter 3: Incentivizing precise forecasts. You might be familiar with proper scoring rules, which are mechanisms for paying experts for forecasts in a way that incentivizes the experts to report their true beliefs. But there are many proper scoring rules (most famously, the quadratic score and the log score), so which one should you use? There are many perspectives on this question, but the one I take in this chapter is: which proper scoring rule most incentivizes experts to do the most research before reporting their forecast? (See also this blog post I wrote explaining the research.) Chapter 4: Arbitrage-free contract functions. Now, what if you're trying to elicit forecasts from multiple experts? If you're worried about the experts colluding, your problem is now harder. It turns out that if you use the same proper scoring rule to pay every expert, then the experts can collu...

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: My PhD thesis: Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology, published by Eric Neyman on March 17, 2024 on LessWrong. In January, I defended my PhD thesis, which I called Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology. From the preface: For me as for most students, college was a time of exploration. I took many classes, read many academic and non-academic works, and tried my hand at a few research projects. Early in graduate school, I noticed a strong commonality among the questions that I had found particularly fascinating: most of them involved reasoning about knowledge, information, or uncertainty under constraints. I decided that this cluster of problems would be my primary academic focus. I settled on calling the cluster algorithmic Bayesian epistemology: all of the questions I was thinking about involved applying the "algorithmic lens" of theoretical computer science to problems of Bayesian epistemology. Although my interest in mathematical reasoning about uncertainty dates back to before I had heard of the rationalist community, the community has no doubt influenced and strengthened this interest. The most striking example of this influence is Scott Aaronson's blog post Common Knowledge and Aumann's Agreement Theorem, which I ran into during my freshman year of college.[1] The post made things click together for me in a way that made me more intellectually honest and humble, and generally a better person. I also found the post incredibly intellectually interesting -- and indeed, Chapter 8 of my thesis is a follow-up to Scott Aaronson's academic paper on Aumann's agreement theorem. My interest in forecast elicitation and aggregation, while pre-existing, was no doubt influenced by the EA/rationalist-adjacent forecasting community. And Chapter 9 of the thesis (work I did at the Alignment Research Center) is no doubt causally downstream of the rationalist community. Which is all to say: thank you! Y'all have had a substantial positive impact on my intellectual journey. Chapter descriptions The thesis contains two background chapters followed by seven technical chapters (Chapters 3-9). In Chapter 1 (Introduction), I try to convey what exactly I mean by "algorithmic Bayesian epistemology" and why I'm excited about it. In Chapter 2 (Preliminaries), I give some technical background that's necessary for understanding the subsequent technical chapters. It's intended to be accessible to readers with a general college-level math background. While the nominal purpose of Chapter 2 is to introduce the mathematical tools used in later chapters, the topics covered there are interesting in their own right. Different readers will of course have different opinions about which technical chapters are the most interesting. Naturally, I have my own opinions: I think the most interesting chapters are Chapters 5, 7, and 9, so if you are looking for direction, you may want to tiebreak toward reading those. Here are some brief summaries: Chapter 3: Incentivizing precise forecasts. You might be familiar with proper scoring rules, which are mechanisms for paying experts for forecasts in a way that incentivizes the experts to report their true beliefs. But there are many proper scoring rules (most famously, the quadratic score and the log score), so which one should you use? There are many perspectives on this question, but the one I take in this chapter is: which proper scoring rule most incentivizes experts to do the most research before reporting their forecast? (See also this blog post I wrote explaining the research.) Chapter 4: Arbitrage-free contract functions. Now, what if you're trying to elicit forecasts from multiple experts? If you're worried about the experts colluding, your problem is now harder. It turns out that if you use the same proper scoring rule to pay every expert, then the experts can collu...

Ob die deutsche Wirtschaft noch zu retten ist, kläre ich mit Wolfgang Bosbach in einem aufschlussreichen Interview. In unserem Gespräch beleuchten wir die aktuellen Herausforderungen und diskutieren potenzielle Lösungsansätze, um den Wirtschaftsstandort Deutschland zukunftsfähig zu gestalten.► Bald erscheint mein neues Buch. Passend dazu veranstalte ich am 27.02 einen Live Online Workshop. Jetzt dein kostenloses Ticket sichern:https://mission-mittelstand.com/ws-27-02-24-pd► Sichere dir jetzt 'How to Marktführer' und setze ein Zeichen für die Zukunft:https://mission-mittelstand.com/marktfuehrer-pdc► Der Mission Mittelstand Montageservice ist jetzt erhältlich:https://mission-mittelstand.com/montageservice-pdc► Deutschlands erstes digitales Leadership-Training für einen hochprofitablen Betriebsablauf:https://mission-mittelstand.com/lst-pdc► Melde dich jetzt zum Führungskräftetraining an:https://mission-mittelstand.com/fkt-pdc► Buche jetzt dein unverbindliches Geschäftsführer Gespräch unter:https://matthias-aumann.de/podcast

In der aktuellen Podcastfolge freue ich mich darauf, mit dir ein weiteres Kapitel aus meinem bevorstehenden Buch "How to Marktführer - Neues denken. Neues Handeln." zu teilen. Viel Spaß beim Hören, dein Matthias.► Bald erscheint mein neues Buch. Passend dazu veranstalte ich am 27.02 einen Live Online Workshop. Jetzt dein kostenloses Ticket sichern:https://mission-mittelstand.com/ws-27-02-24-pd► Sichere dir jetzt 'How to Marktführer' und setze ein Zeichen für die Zukunft:https://mission-mittelstand.com/marktfuehrer-pdc► Der Mission Mittelstand Montageservice ist jetzt erhältlich:https://mission-mittelstand.com/montageservice-pdc► Deutschlands erstes digitales Leadership-Training für einen hochprofitablen Betriebsablauf:https://mission-mittelstand.com/lst-pdc► Melde dich jetzt zum Führungskräftetraining an:https://mission-mittelstand.com/fkt-pdc► Buche jetzt dein unverbindliches Geschäftsführer Gespräch unter:https://matthias-aumann.de/podcast

In der aktuellen Podcastfolge freue ich mich darauf, mit dir ein Kapitel aus meinem bevorstehenden Buch "How to Marktführer - Neues denken. Neues Handeln." zu teilen. Viel Spaß beim Hören, dein Matthias.► Bald erscheint mein neues Buch. Passend dazu veranstalte ich am 27.02 einen Live Online Workshop. Jetzt dein kostenloses Ticket sichern: https://mission-mittelstand.com/ws-27-02-24-ythttps://mission-mittelstand.com/ws-27-02-24-pd► Sichere dir jetzt 'How to Marktführer' und setze ein Zeichen für die Zukunft:https://mission-mittelstand.com/marktfuehrer-pdc► Der Mission Mittelstand Montageservice ist jetzt erhältlich:https://mission-mittelstand.com/montageservice-pdc► Deutschlands erstes digitales Leadership-Training für einen hochprofitablen Betriebsablauf:https://mission-mittelstand.com/lst-pdc► Melde dich jetzt zum Führungskräftetraining an:https://mission-mittelstand.com/fkt-pdc► Buche jetzt dein unverbindliches Geschäftsführer Gespräch unter:https://matthias-aumann.de/podcast

In dieser Podcastfolge spreche ich darüber, wieso du als Unternehmer unangenehme Gespräche führen musst. ► Sichere dir jetzt 'How to Marktführer' und setze ein Zeichen für die Zukunft:https://mission-mittelstand.com/marktfuehrer-pdc► Der Mission Mittelstand Montageservice ist jetzt erhältlich:https://mission-mittelstand.com/montageservice-pdc► Deutschlands erstes digitales Leadership-Training für einen hochprofitablen Betriebsablauf:https://mission-mittelstand.com/lst-pdc► Melde dich jetzt zum Führungskräftetraining an:https://mission-mittelstand.com/fkt-pdc► Buche jetzt dein unverbindliches Geschäftsführer Gespräch unter:https://matthias-aumann.de/podcast

In dieser Podcastfolge spreche ich darüber, wie du Schritt für Schritt eine starke Unternehmenskultur schaffen und magische Momente in deinem Unternehmen kreieren kannst.► Sichere dir jetzt 'How to Marktführer' und setze ein Zeichen für die Zukunft:https://mission-mittelstand.com/marktfuehrer-pdc► Der Mission Mittelstand Montageservice ist jetzt erhältlich:https://mission-mittelstand.com/montageservice-pdc► Deutschlands erstes digitales Leadership-Training für einen hochprofitablen Betriebsablauf:https://mission-mittelstand.com/lst-pdc► Melde dich jetzt zum Führungskräftetraining an:https://mission-mittelstand.com/fkt-pdc► Buche jetzt dein unverbindliches Geschäftsführer Gespräch unter:https://matthias-aumann.de/podcast

Alle Infos zu ausgewählten Werbepartnern findest du hier.  Das Buch zum Podcast? JETZT BESTELLEN.  Lieber als Newsletter? Geht auch.  Allzeithoch beim DAX. Pelabresib-Hoch bei Morphosys. Absage-Hoch bei Cigna. Außerdem wird Macy's wohl gekauft und Occidental Petroleum hat wohl gekauft. Aumann (WKN: A2DAM0) sollte eigentlich was vom E-Auto-Hype abkriegen. Stattdessen hat die Firma viel von der Corona-Krise abgekriegt. Aber was passiert jetzt? Costco (WKN: 888351) ist sehr teuer. Doch die Rentabilität ist sehr hoch, Charlie Munger hat die Firma geliebt und Diebe haben Costco schon immer gehasst. Diesen Podcast vom 12.12.2023, 3:00 Uhr stellt dir die Podstars GmbH (Noah Leidinger) zur Verfügung. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Raimond Aumann solide portier du championnat allemand il est le portier du Bayen qui domine tout le championnat locale dans les année 80 et 90 en coupe d'Europe il c'est avéré privé son club d'une final de C1 en 1991 il n'a pas pue remporté la coupe au grande oreille avec la sections la c'est pas très glorieux même si on peux noté le titre de champions du monde en 1990 en Italie sans avoir fait un seul match de cette compétitions il est pas le nom le plus ronflant de la planète foot mais il a marqué se sport a sa manière voici sont histoire dans ce nouveaux numéros de grand joueurs.

Caroline Glick sat down with Prof. Yisrael Aumman, winner of the Nobel Prize for economics and a pioneer to discuss the hostage deal with Hamas. Prof. Aumann and Caroline also discussed the nature of Hamas's war doctrine and what Israel must accomplish to be recognized as the winner in the war.

Machinery Pete catches up with Kurt Aumann, owner of Aumann Vintage Power in Nokomis, IL. Kurt has been one of the foremost auctioneers in the vintage tractor, farm memorabilia, pedal tractors, toy tractors and farm signs space for decades. Kurt and Pete talk about Aumann Vintage Power 5-Day Annual Fall Auction Oct. 22-26 plus the 14 collector auctions they have coming up Oct. 27 – Dec. 3, 2023. [:40] - Machinery Pete's intro, latest market update [5:48] - Interview with Kurt Aumann begins [10:00] - About the items in the sale [14:56] - Connecting with people and adapting to online-only auctions  [19:09] - What is the rarest tractor Kurt has seen? [29:35] - State of collector market [38:00] - Connection between farmer & tractor [50:34] - Final words from Machinery Pete Machinery Pete was founded in 1989 and has grown from its humble beginnings to a full-fledged marketplace for farming equipment. Greg Peterson, founder and host, has also released Machinery Pete content across platforms including YouTube with his long-running Machinery Pete TV show.If you'd like to receive new episodes as they're published, please subscribe to the Machinery Pete Podcast in Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. If you enjoyed this episode, please consider leaving a review in Apple Podcasts. It really helps others find the show. 

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Aumann-agreement is common, published by tailcalled on August 27, 2023 on LessWrong. Thank you to Justis Mills for proofreading and feedback. This post is also available on my substack. Aumann's agreement theorem is a family of theorems which say that if people trust each other and know each other's opinions, then they agree with each other. Or phrased another way, if people maintain trust with each other, then they can reach agreement. (And some variants of the theorem, which take computational factors into consideration, suggest they can do so quite rapidly.) The original proof is pretty formal and confusing, but a simpler heuristic argument is that for an honest, rational agent, the mere fact of them professing an opinion can be strong evidence to another rational agent, because if the speaker's probabilities are higher than the speaker's prior, then they must have seen corresponding evidence to justify that opinion. Some people find this confusing, and feel like it must be wrong because it doesn't apply to most disagreements. I think these people are wrong because they are not sufficiently expansive in what they think of as a disagreement. The notion of disagreement that Aumann's agreement theorem applies to is when the people assign different probabilities to events; this is a quite inclusive notion which covers many things that we don't typically think of as disagreements, including cases where one party has information about a topic and the other party has no information. My vacation in Norway relied tons on Aumann agreements Recently, I had a vacation in Norway with my wife. In order to get there, and to get around, we needed transport. At first we disagreed with people who provided transport there, as we didn't know of many specific means of transport, only vaguely that there would be some planes and ships, without knowing which ones. But my wife had heard that there was something called the "Oslo ferry", so we Aumann-agreed that this was an option, and decided to investigate further. We disagreed with the company that provided the Oslo ferry, as we didn't know what their website is, so we asked Google, and it provided some options for what the ferry might be, and we Aumann-agreed with Google and then went investigating from there. One website we found claimed to sell tickets to the ferry; at first we disagreed with the website about when we could travel as we didn't know the times of the ferry, but then we read which times it claimed was available, and Aumann-updated to that. We also had to find some things to do in Norway. Luckily for us, some people at OpenAI had noticed that everyone had huge disagreements with the internet as nobody had really memorized the internet, and they thought that they could gain some value by resolving that disagreement, so they Aumann-agreed with the internet by stuffing it into a neural network called ChatGPT. At first, ChatGPT disagreed with us about what to visit in Norway and suggested some things we were not really interested in, but we informed it about our interests, and then it quickly Aumann-agreed with us and proposed some other things that were more interesting. One of the things we visited was a museum for an adventurer who built a raft and sailed in the ocean. Prior to visiting the museum, we had numerous disagreements with it, as e.g. we didn't know that one of the people on the raft had fallen in the ocean and had to be rescued. But the museum told us this was the case, so we Aumann-agreed to believe it. Presumably, the museum learnt about it through Aumann-agreeing with the people on the raft. One example of an erroneous Aumann agreement was with the train company Vy. They had said that they could get us a train ticket on the Bergen train, and we had Aumann-agreed with that. However, due to a storm, their train...

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: What problems do African-Americans face? An initial investigation using Standpoint Epistemology and Surveys, published by tailcalled on March 12, 2023 on LessWrong. This post is also available at my substack. This post started from a bit of a weird place. I was in a Discord chatroom, and someone started complaining that Standpoint Epistemology had been “taken way past its carrying weight”. I didn't know much about Standpoint Epistemology, so I asked for various examples and resources about it. The resources she gave me that were written by Standpoint Epistemologists seemed relatively reasonable, and the resources that criticized it seemed to me to either be misrepresenting what Standpoint Epistemologists were saying, or to be criticizing people for something other than excessive Standpoint Epistemology. At some point I got to the conclusion that in order to evaluate these things, it would really be useful for me to apply some Standpoint Epistemology myself. Specifically, since a lot of the discussion in the Discord server was about black people's experiences with racism, I thought I should apply Standpoint Epistemology to this. In this post, I want to detail how I went about this, and what my results were, so that others can learn from it, and maybe usefully apply Standpoint Epistemology themselves. Disclaimer: As you will see, this is not a thorough investigation into what African-Americans want. Rather, it is a brief initial investigation, which suggests places for further investigation and further learning. This is probably more a practical tutorial into how I would apply Standpoint Epistemology than an article on race issues per se. What is Standpoint Epistemology? It may be good to think of Standpoint Epistemology as an erisology, i.e. a theory of disagreement. If you observe a disagreement, Standpoint Epistemology provides one possible answer for what that disagreement means and how to handle it. According to Standpoint Epistemology, people get their opinions and beliefs about the world through their experiences (also called their standpoint). However, a single experience will only reveal part of the world, and so in order to get a more comprehensive perspective, one must combine multiple experiences. In this way the ontology of Standpoint Epistemology heavily resembles rationalist-empiricist epistemologies such as Bayesian Epistemology, which also assert that people get their opinions by accumulating experiences that contain partial information. One important difference is that whereas rationalists often focus on individual epistemology, such as overcoming biased heuristics or learning to build evidence into theories, Standpoint Epistemology instead focuses on what one can learn from other people's experiences. There is only one underlying reality, but different people observe different aspects of it. As such, Standpoint Epistemology emphasizes that if someone tells you about something that you haven't had experience with, you should take this as a learning opportunity, rather than concluding that they must be irrational, biased, or crazy. This notion that one should listen to and believe what others say does not contradict the mathematical underpinnings of traditional rationalist epistemology such as Bayesian Epistemology. Instead, it can be mathematically proven from the assumptions of Bayesian Epistemology, in a theorem known as Aumann's Agreement Theorem. However, while Standpoint Epistemology follows from Bayesian Epistemology, I feel like we don't necessarily see rationalists being as positive towards it as they could be. In the specific case of racism, one article that the person in the Discord server shared with me as an example of Standpoint Epistemology was The Part about Black Lives Mattering Where White People Shut Up and Listen. This article, take...

Professor Antony Aumann - The Mitch Albom Show - January 18, 2023

Back in 1953, at MIT, two young mathematicians crossed paths. Professor Yisrael Aumann was a young brilliant doctoral student when he met John Nash, one of the fathers of game theory and the subject of the biography and Oscar-winning film A Beautiful Mind. Nash shared his ideas on game theory with Aumann who later said "I didn't give the field much thought at the time because I was busy with pure mathematics". Years later when Aumann was hired by Bell to work on antiaircraft missiles, he realized that Nash's ideas were a game changer. Pun intended. Later both men would receive Nobel prizes for their contributions to the field of economics. Recently, Aumann expressed criticism about assertions by prominent behavioral economists such as Daniel Kahneman and Dan Ariely that humans are fundamentally irrational. Aumann urges a return to Rationality. Professor Yisrael Aumann is himself a legend of Game Theory. He's a founding member of the Stony Brook Center for Game Theory and is a Professor at the Center for the Study of Rationality at the Hebrew University. We're thrilled to be joined today on the show for the second time by Professor Yisrael Aumann.

Stanley Kubrick parodia en Dr. Strangelove la crisis de los misiles de Cuba de 1962. Peter Sellers interpreta en ella al matemático que asesora a los americanos en un potencial conflicto nuclear con los rusos. El personaje está inspirado en el profesor John von Neumann, padre de la teoría de juegos. Dicen los manuales que la bomba atómica debería reducir la probabilidad de guerra, ahora que el coste es inasumible. Aunque los modelos no siempre se cumplen con humanos no siempre racionales.Este podcast está patrocinado por Equito App.Muchos españoles no pueden invertir en inmuebles porque los bancos exigen un capital alto antes de conceder un préstamo. Equito App llega para cambiar esto. Nuestra aplicación te permite invertir en inmuebles desde tan solo 100 euros, en menos de 2 minutos y con tu móvil, para recibir rentas cada mes. Equito tokeniza los activos inmobiliarios para hacerlos accesibles a todos. Es muy simple darte de alta: te descargas la app, le sacas una foto a tu DNI, eliges el tipo de inversión que quieres, firmas tu contrato desde el teléfono móvil y mandas el dinero. La inversión se realiza por transferencia bancaria, tarjeta de crédito o incluso criptomoneda. Con el código NB543, obtén 10 euros por una primera inversión de 200 y 30 euros por una de 500. Entra en Equito.app para conocer todos los detalles del proyecto.Índice:1.26. Un bonito consejo de José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero.11.26. Los buenos estudiantes mantienen la curiosidad.26.01. ¿Qué es la teoría de juegos?39.40. El dilema del prisionero.49.32. La tragedia de los comunes.1.13.17. 12 hombres sin piedad.1.17.30. El juego de la gallina con Puigdemont y Tsipras.1.40.56. ¿Teléfono rojo? Volamos hacia Moscú.1.54.15. El equilibrio de Nash en el lanzamiento de penaltis.Apuntes:Game theory: an applied introduction. José Luis Ferreira.La historia más lúdica jamás contada: Von Neumann. José Luis Ferreira.La historia más lúdica jamás contada: Schelling. José Luis Ferreira.La historia más lúdica jamás contada: Aumann. José Luis Ferreira.The strategy of conflict. Thomas Schelling.Theory of games and economic behavior. John von Neumann.How the mind works. Steven Pinker.The logic of life. Tim Harford.

This week on Pop Queers we're joined by Gemma Brett and Peter Auman from Better Than The Wizards! Stick around until the end to hear their latest single Naked and check... LEARN MORE The post Pop Queers: Ep 98: Gemma Brett vs Peter Aumann (Better Than The Wizards) appeared first on Pop Queers.

Katie Aumann says Jesus' parable in Luke 14 reminds us that the ushering in of the kingdom of heaven begins at ordinary places like the dinner tables we gather around every day. At his table, none are worthy, but all are welcome.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Credence Calibration Icebreaker Game, published by Ruby on August 14, 2022 on LessWrong. The Aussie mega-meetup took place this past weekend. For it, a new kind of icebreaker was needed: one which is was not merely fun and sociable, but also instilled with the Way. Thus was the Credence Calibration Icebreaker forged. A marriage of the credence game and the classic icebreaker, ‘Say three things about yourself, one of them a lie', the game allows players to learn about each other, test their ability to deceive and detect deception, and discover just how calibrated they are. How to play Playing instructions here: docx pdf. Scoring spreadsheet. Each turn a player makes three statements about themselves. One and only one the statement must be intentionally untrue. All others players assign probabilities of being false to each statement. These probability sum to 1: P(A') + P(B') + P(C' ) = 1. The game is scored in the same manner as the credence game, but with reference to 33% rather than 50%. The way we played it, a player would reveal which was the lie immediately after everyone else had assigned probabilities. The immediate feedback is more fun and allows players to recalibrate as they learn about their performance. Revealing which statements were lies at the end would require reminding everyone what the other statements were. Many meetup groups have played the Aumann agree game where groups collectively assign credences to a collection of statements, however that game requires a collection of statements to be collected in advance. Once played, new statements must be collected for a new game. The credence calibration icebreaker has the advantage that players generate the statements allowing for easy replay. Improvements Restrictions should be placed on the nature of the lies in order to control which skills are tested. We played without restrictions and most players generated a lie by altering a minor detail of a true statement which didn't affect its plausibility, e.g. ‘My father's brain is frozen'1 vs. ‘My uncle's brain is frozen'. This resulted in the game being less about appraising the plausibility of statements and more about detecting deception by tells and other clues. Following the original icebreaker game, three statements were used. Reducing the number of statements to two would have the following benefits: The game is currently data entry intensive, requiring two numbers per question per player to be entered. Two statements would halve this number. Assigning probabilities of falsehood is counter-intuitive to many, using two statements would allow for the typical direct assignment of truth. People find generating three statements difficult, two statements would reduce the effort. Statistics Various statistics are computed in the scoring spreadsheet. Results from our game showed a high correlation between number correct and score, 0.72, and that players improved over the course of the game thanks to diminishing overconfidence. 1. True statement. As was 'I have three kidneys'. Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org.

Episode: 3109 Mathematics says that we should never disagree, but we still do.  Today, let's talk about what I know that you know.

In this PREMIERE EPISODE of the Caroline Glick Middle East News Show on JNS TV, she hosts renowned mathemetician Prof. Israel Aumann for a riveting discussion. In the context of Israel's Yom HaZikaron and Yom Haatzmaut, they explore the rationality of Zionism and of sending children to serve in the Israel Defense Forces. From the sublime and existential they move to the strategic and political. Is Israel occupying Judea and Samaria, and if not, what must be done? Are Israel's children going to be taught their heritage and if not, what will become of the country? And who is responsible for the cleavages on the political right? Former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or those who hate him? Tune in and take the journey.

In this premiere episode on Jewish News Syndicate (JNS), Caroline hosts renowned mathemetician Prof. Israel Aumann for a riveting discussion. They ask: Is it rational to send your child to serve in the Israel Defense Forces when you know that he might die? Is Israel occupying Judea and Samaria?Is former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to blame for the deep divisions among Israel's Right?

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-sadly I. The Duality Of Man Kalimac: If you write more stuff like this, I think I will just gradually stop reading this blog. Logan Strohl: For the record this is my favorite Scott essay in years. Leo Yankovic: Reading this for the first time in a long time of reading [ACX] felt like a giant waste of time. John Slow: For what it's worth, this was my favorite ACX post. Meh: You read through an ENTIRE BOOK of that kind of pompous, long-winded drivel? Paul: Just this review injected a strong acid into my mind and it's burning through everything. I'm questioning my behaviors and thought patterns and then questioning the questioning. I realized how a lot of my thoughts are geared towards looking good in front of an imaginary audience . . . I'm definitely going to read this book. ophis_uk: It feels like this whole review, and to a large extent the comments, are carefully tiptoeing around an obvious conclusion, occasionally glancing sideways to look at it edge-on, but carefully avoiding confronting it directly. That conclusion is: Teach/TLP is a bad writer, and has therefore written a shit book. AL: Okay, maybe you're just reading the bones, but holy moley there are some crackling-good insights here! Alex Power: The review has successfully convinced me to not read this book. FiveHourMarathon: I got about halfway through and wrote in my notebook to call my local bookstore and see if they planned to stock it/could order one for me. I am genuinely fascinated by how divergent all of your responses are. I wonder if anyone will Aumann update towards “there might really be something here” or “it might all be obscurantist drivel” after knowing that other people think so. If not, why not? II. Reviews From Other People Who Have Read The Book

"The reason people disagree is because they're striving toward a different goal," says mathematician and Nobel Prize winner Robert Aumann. In this episode of All Else Equal, Aumann sits down with finance professors and podcast hosts Jonathan Berk and Jules van Binsbergen to discuss why when leaders disagree, it means one party holds more information than the other."If there's a disagreement in the room at the end of a discussion, someone in the room is making a mistake," says Berk.Follow and provide feedback for the All Else Equal Podcast on LinkedInFor more information and episodes, visit AllElseEqualPodcast.comAll Else Equal is a podcast produced by Stanford Graduate School of Business. It is hosted by Jonathan Berk, professor of finance at Stanford GSB, and Jules van Binsbergen, professor of finance, at The Wharton School. Each episode provides insight into how to make better decisions.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Late last year, Vanessa Kosoy and Alexander Appel published some research under the heading of "Infra-Bayesian physicalism". But wait - what was infra-Bayesianism again? Why should we care? And what does any of this have to do with physicalism? In this episode, I talk with Vanessa Kosoy about these questions, and get a technical overview of how infra-Bayesian physicalism works and what its implications are. Topics we discuss, and timestamps: 00:00:48 - The basics of infra-Bayes 00:08:32 - An invitation to infra-Bayes 00:11:23 - What is naturalized induction? 00:19:53 - How infra-Bayesian physicalism helps with naturalized induction 00:19:53 - Bridge rules 00:22:22 - Logical uncertainty 00:23:36 - Open source game theory 00:28:27 - Logical counterfactuals 00:30:55 - Self-improvement 00:32:40 - How infra-Bayesian physicalism works 00:32:47 - World models 00:39-20 - Priors 00:42:53 - Counterfactuals 00:50:34 - Anthropics 00:54:40 - Loss functions 00:56:44 - The monotonicity principle 01:01:57 - How to care about various things 01:08:47 - Decision theory 01:19:53 - Follow-up research 01:20:06 - Infra-Bayesian physicalist quantum mechanics 01:26:42 - Infra-Bayesian physicalist agreement theorems 01:29:00 - The production of infra-Bayesianism research 01:35:14 - Bridge rules and malign priors 01:45:27 - Following Vanessa's work The transcript Vanessa on the Alignment Forum Research that we discuss: Infra-Bayesian physicalism: a formal theory of naturalized induction Updating ambiguous beliefs (contains the infra-Bayesian update rule) Functional Decision Theory: A New Theory of Instrumental Rationality Space-time embedded intelligence Attacking the grain of truth problem using Bayes-Savage agents (generating a simplicity prior with Knightian uncertainty using oracle machines) Quantity of experience: brain-duplication and degrees of consciousness (the thick wires argument) Online learning in unknown Markov games Agreeing to disagree (contains the Aumann agreement theorem) What does the universal prior actually look like? (aka "the Solomonoff prior is malign") The Solomonoff prior is malign Eliciting Latent Knowledge ELK Thought Dump, by Abram Demski

Prof. Aumann talks about the Paradox of Nuclear Bombs causing World Peace.

Prof. Aumann recalls his cited works in The '05 Economics Nobel Prize, and sings us a song describing the future of the field.

We made it, everybody! We survived three waterfalls and eighteen minutes of mayhem. Wait, did our guests Mark Campbell and Jason Aumann survive? Somebody check. www.indianajonesminute.com Join us at Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/indianajonesminute Facebook: @indianajonesminute Twitter: @indianajonesmin Instagram: @indiana_jones_minute

Three times it drops. That applies to so many things, doesn't it? Our guests Mark Campbell and Jason Aumann return for the first one. www.indianajonesminute.com Join us at Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/indianajonesminute Facebook: @indianajonesminute Twitter: @indianajonesmin Instagram: @indiana_jones_minute

The only way to deal with ants is to drive off a cliff with our guests Mark Campbell and Jason Aumann! www.indianajonesminute.com Join us at Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/indianajonesminute Facebook: @indianajonesminute Twitter: @indianajonesmin Instagram: @indiana_jones_minute