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In this episode of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast, Bryghtpath Principal & Chief Executive Bryan Strawser along with Consultant Bray Wheeler, discuss roles and responsibilities in a business continuity program. Topics discussed include ISO 22301, Business Continuity Governance, roles and responsibilities, executive sponsors, program managers, program management, business continuity leadership, boards of directors, and many more. Related Episodes & Blog Posts Blog Post:  8 Things to consider when choosing a business continuity consultant Blog Post:  Using ISO 22301 to evaluate your business continuity program Blog Post:  Why invest in business continuity? Blog Post:  A look at the new ISO 22317 Standard for Business Impact Analysis (BIA) Blog Post:  Rethinking Business Continuity - Applying ISO 22301 to improve resiliency, managing risk, and drive profitability in your organization Blog Post:  Presentation - A program management approach for business continuity management Episode Transcript Bryan Strawser: Hello and welcome to the Managing Uncertainty Podcast. This is Bryan Strawser, principal and chief executive here at Bryghtpath. Bray Wheeler: And this is Bray Wheeler consultant here at Bryghtpath. Bryan Strawser: And for today's episode we're going to talk a little bit about the roles and responsibilities within a business continuity program. Or if you want to use the ISO 22301 specific definition. We're going to talk about roles and responsibilities in a business continuity management system. Bray Wheeler: Fancy. Bryan Strawser: Very fancy. A BCMs. But business continuity program, like what are the roles inside of a business continuity program? Bray Wheeler: Well if we want to probably start at the kind of the very top, because we'll probably spend the least amount of time there is that kind of steering committee, kind of the overall kind of governance structure of the program and the process within the organization. Bryan Strawser: And I think we're going to dive more specifically into governance and a steering committee in a future episode. But when we're talking about a steering committee, we're really talking about an interdisciplinary group of leaders probably just below the executive level. But it depends on how your company's size and structure come into play. But it's a group of folks who, if you read the Standards definition right, their role is to make sure that the program is aligned to the strategic objectives of the organization and that the program is achieving its goals and objectives that had been outlined and approved through this governance process. So they're almost at the top. They're not at the executive level, but they could be in your organization, but they're really up here. You can't see me. I've got my hands up in the air. Bray Wheeler: They're taking the proverbial 50,000-foot view of- Bryan Strawser: That's right. Bray Wheeler: ... the program within the organization to make sure that it's not just some kind of sideshow or it's not minimized or that there is that connectivity throughout the organization. Bryan Strawser: And although we'll get into this in another episode as a deep dive. I think it is important to think about this is not just a proforma body that you're going to get in front of and give updates. It needs to be an actual governance body where there's good give and take. Where they're holding the program accountable to the goals and objectives of the program and ensuring that they're aligned against the direction of the company is going. What are the strategic objectives of your organization? Bray Wheeler: So it's not quite like the capital funds committee that you have to go present in front of that we've talked about in past podcasts where it's a thumbs up, thumbs down, Caesar kind of moment. It really is that, does this make sense? Tell me a little bit more about it. Giving that kind of different perspectives on ways that the program could evolve or change or meet. Bryan Strawser: I also think it's a place that takes your kind of intractable challenges that we've talked about related to business continuity and disaster recovery. Crisis management, perhaps if that's the way your governance structure is set up. But we often have this resource competition between, hey, I've got all these things the business says I need to have and then I've got all of these recovery strategies that sit in continuity or DR. I don't have the money to do all of them. So what is the prioritization of strategy here? Or another just more tactical example is the business impact analysis. Not everybody's going to have a high availability under one-hour recovery. There has to be some balancing of this across the organization and this might be the final arbiter of that based upon the various arguments put up by the business teams or the BC program. So we're going to get, we're going to get more into this in a future episode. But I think that's important to consider with this is if you really want to have an effective steering committee and not some kind of rubber stamp, a not challenge kind of situation. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. The next role kind of one layer down from that, that's probably a little bit more tactical within kind of the BC process. And I say tactical, very reserved, but it's more around kind of overseeing the day to day management kind of of the program itself. But it's also that kind of program sponsor has some decision making authority. Has some weight and some clout, within the organization in that role, in order to kind of be that person that can say you have to get this done. It's like it's not an option. Or to be able to describe that value. Or for the program kind of team to be able to go up to say, "Hey, we're, we're having challenges here. How do we need to address it?" And so kind of be that advocate for the program within the organization. Bryan Strawser: Yeah, you might call this the executive sponsor in your organization or the program sponsor, the Standard calls for it is the program sponsor. This is usually a senior executive or someone who reports into the C-suite. For example, in our former employer, this role was held jointly between the general counsel, which is where I reported into and the chief information officer, which is where the DR or technology continuity team reported into. They were the co-sponsors of this. They had equal responsibility from the CEO in terms of being the program sponsor and ensuring that the program was out to achieve its objectives and ensuring proper supervision of the two teams. Two teams, one dream, as we kind of refer to it. Bryan Strawser: But like there was one programmatic approach across two very different organizations and the program sponsors were the ones that not only just made sure that was aligned properly, but they also, I mean they were the connectivity to the executive committee and the board in that environment. But I also made sure that the right level of talent was in the leadership roles that actually oversaw and managed the program both in IT and in the legal department where we reported into. Bray Wheeler: What challenges have you seen or did you experience kind of observing that between kind of a co-sponsor rather than a single sponsor in there? Were there any? Bryan Strawser: I don't, well- Bray Wheeler: Or was it just culturally? Bryan Strawser: I think culturally that was just accepted in that environment. That actually is not what I inherited going into that role 10 years ago, well, 11 years ago now. What I inherited was a single sponsor and there was no connectivity at all on paper to the technology disaster recovery elements of the program. We had to bring that into a programmatic approach and then start to put more onus on the information technology team to accept responsibility for delivering, like, this is your box. Right. Continuity is our box. Bray Wheeler: Sure. Bryan Strawser: Program management is our box. Your job is to deliver these technology components. And so it took a few years to get that to be kind of accepted. And honestly, it did require a change in the level of talent that was leading my peer organization over in the technology environment. I don't think that's unusual though. I think we've seen even last year, you and I, on some consulting engagements where there wasn't a great relationship. Not only was there not a good relationship between leaders, business, and IT around continuity and disaster recovery. But also not good programmatic material in terms of framework, standards, policies, that at least put some governance authority or some expectations in play that these two functions needed to work together. Bray Wheeler: Yeah, it was almost, and not to pick on the organization, but it was, you get into situations where just because it's one line in a document or something like that somewhere, it's not enough. It's enough to cause trouble is what it ends up being is because all it does is kind of force a relationship that doesn't have anything else substantial behind it. So to your point, there is no policies or program documents or process components to this. There's nothing culturally or kind of organically set up for those things that kind of coexist and talk to each other. Except for a line or two somewhere in a document or two that says, "Hey, you do have connectivity. Make it work." Bryan Strawser: Yeah. I think where we see challenges with this beyond what we've talked about, is when just the program sponsor's just not engaged. Or the team, the business continuity program team, the BCMS team according to the Standard, wasn't engaging with the sponsor in a way that made for a very productive and healthy relationship like the Standard calls for, and what an organization will want. So I think that's where you see the breakdown here. Bryan Strawser: I do feel pretty strongly, it needs to be a member of top management, the way the Standard calls. You know, the senior leaders, executive-level leaders of an organization, it needs to be sponsored from there because it's that important. Otherwise, it gets lost in everything else. The program manager could be two or three levels down from that executive sponsor. But you need that executive sponsor's oomph, so to speak, to help make this important in your organization. Bray Wheeler: Because when it's important, it's very important. And everybody starts taking it seriously. But before the boom, as we call it or the- Bryan Strawser: Preboom. Bray Wheeler: ... leak or flu or whatever it is. Bryan Strawser: Whatever the bang is. Bray Wheeler: Nobody finds it inherently interesting necessarily. Because everybody's often running on their areas of the business. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. When you're left of the boom, sometimes there's just not a lot of interest in some of this. So, executive sponsor, I think you've outlined that. The next position we talk about is the program manager. And there are all kinds of titles for this. I mean you could be the manager, senior manager, director, VP of business continuity, or resilience or resiliency or I've seen all kinds of titles involving the word resilience lately. But what the Standard defines is a program manager who is responsible. They are the person responsible for the management, the day to day operations of a business continuity management program. And it's that simple. They own all of the operational responsibilities for making the program go round. Bryan Strawser: It doesn't mean they're doing all of the business continuity work. Bray Wheeler: No. Bryan Strawser: Their job is to manage and set programmatic expectations. And then manage to those expectations that they've established with their executive sponsor and with the steering committee. Not to write everyone's plan. Bray Wheeler: No. And I don't think we can emphasize that point enough. You especially having been in that role, a similar role. You're not writing a plan. Bryan Strawser: I didn't write anybody's plan. Bray Wheeler: No. And nor should that position because they're not best suited. And the reason is they're not best suited to be able to speak on behalf of that process or that teams or that function's kind of responsibilities and what needs to happen in order for them to from normal state to kind of secondary continuity state, to what's important. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. They're running the program. They're setting the programmatic expectations. Like it is this person's job to work with other stakeholders and say, "Here's the required content of a business continuity plan according to our program." But it's the business owners, it's the plan owners, which we'll talk about a moment, it's their job to take that guidance. They might be walked through it by the program manager or someone on the team. Bray Wheeler: They're a wise resource. Bryan Strawser: They're a wise resource, and they're accountable for the program. But the plan owner, the business owner is responsible for the plan. And so I think in new programs, this is something that gets struggled with a lot over, who's doing this, who's writing in the plan? Well, you are, but you're going to write it to the format using that I specify, the template that we've specified for the program and I'm going to help you get there. You're going to do it. Bray Wheeler: But you're going to do it. Bryan Strawser: Right. Bray Wheeler: So kind of those three positions that we outlined the kind of from steering committee to executive sponsor to kind of program manager, insert your business continuity slash resiliency, words of choice- Bryan Strawser: Insert your title here. Bray Wheeler: ... position. Those all have an organizational kind of programmatic view on the strategy of business continuity and the program of business continuity within the organization. Kind of this next role, I think we can even kind of parse it out just a little bit with some different nuances we've seen it play out in some different roles. But this is really, these are the people that are responsible for drafting, writing, reviewing- Bryan Strawser: Approving. Bray Wheeler: ... approving- Bryan Strawser: Attesting. Bray Wheeler: ... kind of, it's on the other half of the plan. It's the plan kind of creative team that has accountability and responsibility to that business process that needs to resume activity. Bryan Strawser: Right. So here we're talking about, well Standard just describes a business continuity planner as being a person who's responsible for using their knowledge of the business to create and maintain and exercise a business continuity plan. But when we work with clients, we like to break this into two roles. One is that you're dealing with a critical business process or a set of processes that are part of a team. That business leader, whatever level that team's organized at, that you're writing the plan to, they're the plan owner. They own the business, they, therefore, own the business continuity plan that supports and helps them work through disruption to that business. They're the one who ultimately approves the plan. We do require next level approval when we're creating systems. But in the end, they're the one that's directly responsible for the business continuity plan. Bryan Strawser: So we want to capture it in that way that they're the owner of the plan. And then if they have other folks involved, we might call them planners or plan designees. But they're the hands-on experts. At usually the lower level, their managers or some position like that. Coordinators. Where they're writing the plan and they're working with their boss, the plan owner, to make sure that this plan is right. But they likely do a lot of the day to day work on creating the plan. Bray Wheeler: They're likely the ones that are engaging with kind of the business continuity team or function to kind of get questions answered, to kind of walkthrough and review the details to make sure they're aligning within the broader organization. But yeah, to your point, they're the doers of- Bryan Strawser: They are the doers. Bray Wheeler: ... creating the plan and making sure that it's workable. Bryan Strawser: And as we said before, the program manager, again, they're doing this to a template and a process and a set of expectations that you have established as the program manager for the overall program. You're looking for that level of consistency in what they're doing. You're not the one going in and creating their plan for them. They're following this direction that you have hopefully put it in writing. And kind of going through with them what needs to be done. So those are the roles as I think we think about them, just programmatically. The steering committee, the program sponsor or executive sponsor. A business candidate program manager overseeing the day to day operations of the program. And then plan owners and planners or plan designees, whatever you want to call that. Bryan Strawser: I would point out too that although we were not going to go much into this, the ISO Standard also defines a role for what it calls top management. The senior-most management in an organization. And that role that they defined for them is essentially about being an example for the rest of the organization by demonstrating a visible commitment to the success and the goals and objectives of the business continuity management program, business continuity management system in the Standard. Bray Wheeler: Interesting. Bryan Strawser: Set the example. Bray Wheeler: Set the example. Bryan Strawser: Set the example. Yeah. When we do the maturity assessments that we do here at Bryghtpath, one of the factors that we're looking at in scoring is demonstration of that visible. Can you visibly see that there has been commitment from senior leaders to participate? It could be as simple as they're on their team call and the minutes of the team call reflect that they talked about the importance of business continuity. Or like next week the business continuity update cycle begins and I expect all of you to do X, Y, Z. Those are the kinds of things that the Standard looks for them to do. Bray Wheeler: Which is good because again, like we've talked about the kind of earlier in this podcast and we've talked on other podcasts. And not to minimize, because business continuity obviously is very important and can be very interesting and can be kind of fun mental problems to try and kind of work through how different things work. At the same time, it is not an everyday task within the organization. And so to have that reinforcement of it is important to do these things. It is important to talk about these things. It is important to have these things in place. And that's my expectation as a top leader is that these things are in place, that should boom happen we're not guessing. I want business back running as quickly as possible. And that should be everybody's expectation is let's get this thing back going. Bryan Strawser: So that's our take on the top roles or the, I'm sorry, that's our take on the roles and responsibilities in a business continuity management program. I think briefly it would be important to point out, some of these roles they're held by the fact that you're leading something else. Like if you're the leader of a critical business function or team, then you're going to be the plan owner for that plan. You're not raising your hand and volunteering. But there might be a choice involved in picking your steering committee members, your program sponsor. Or if you're managing that team, you might be picking your planners that are going to work on this for you. Bryan Strawser: And I think there's a couple of factors to keep in mind as you're choosing those folks. And the first one is you want to make sure that you're choosing people who understand that this is important. That they grasp that this is not a check the box kind of thing, that they need to be committed to doing this right and doing it effectively because it matters. It might not matter today, but at some point, the boom will happen and you're going to be right of that and now you're going to have to act and man, if your plan is not ready, that's a bad place to be. Bray Wheeler: A very bad place to be. Bryan Strawser: It's a very bad place to be because you may not have time to think about alternative solutions to what you're going to do because your plan's inadequate. It's also important, I think just to get folks that have the capacity to be able to do this work. It does require, I'm not going to pretend it's always the sexiest thing in the world to write a business continuity plan. But it does require someone who has some good critical thinking skills to think about how do I mitigate the risk of something happening? How do I respond when something happens? How do I innovate a solution at the moment when the main elements of my plan aren't working? Bray Wheeler: How are things connected? Bryan Strawser: And how are things connected? Bray Wheeler: Because that's usually a pretty common trip point. It's pretty easy to say, "Okay, let's draft a contact list and this is how we're going to do it." But what are those kinds of secondary and tertiary things that are happening if we make this choice or we enact this option in our business continuity plan? What ripple effects does that have? Or what partners do we need to make sure that that happens? So good visibility, a good kind of organizational awareness is always a nice bonus. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. Good strategic understanding of how your company works and the interdependencies of processes and people are a really important part to making this world go round. So for reference, if you want to learn more about the roles and responsibilities that are in the ISO Standard, I'm going to encourage you to get a copy of the ISO 22301 Standard. I think they do a pretty good job of breaking down roles and responsibilities into some simple bullet points. You do kind of have to read between the lines sometimes to understand what's the strategic intent of the role that you're getting at. But it doesn't get much simpler than the way that they're outlined within the Standard. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. That's it for this episode of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast. We'll be back next week with another new episode. Thanks for listening.

In this week’s edition of the BryghtCast Weekly Podcast, Bray Wheeler, Consultant, and Bryan Strawser, Principal and Chief Executive discuss three recent events and their potential impact on private sector organizations. Topics Discussed Axios:  The China challenge stumps the 2020 candidates Axios: BlackRock's new climate strategy NPR: In the Philippines, Volcano is quieter, but officials renew warnings for people to leave //static.leadpages.net/leadboxes/current/embed.js Episode Transcript Bray Wheeler: Hi and welcome to BryghtCast Weekly or the week of January 13th, 2020. This is our first one for 2020. Bryan Strawser: It's our first one for a little bit. Bray Wheeler: It has, we've taken a little break during the holidays and such as well as just kind of- Bryan Strawser: There really wasn't a whole lot of significant stuff that was going on. Bray Wheeler: Yeah, there's only probably so much you people want to hear about either impeachment or sports or all sorts of different things. You had put out an episode on Iran as well. Bryan Strawser: So we did an episode of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast yesterday, where I talked a little about Iran and some of the things happen there and what companies should consider and do. Bray Wheeler: Yeah, so this is Bray Wheeler. I'm a consultant here at Bryghtpath. Bryan Strawser: And this is Bryan Strawser, principal and chief executive here at Bryghtpath. Bray Wheeler: We like to do, our intro is a little delayed here on BryghtCast. So this week we're going to try, and keep it just a little bit short and sweet and focus on a couple of different things. One kind the major kind of global conversation or global moment that's happened here in the last few days is the volcano eruption in the Philippines. That started occurring on Sunday. The volcano erupted Sunday sending ash about nine miles into the sky. Prompted warnings from Philippine officials in terms of hey, this could be a lot worse. This could really be a catastrophic explosion. So far that hasn't necessarily been the case. It's certainly kind of continued to rumble and spew ash and lava. Bray Wheeler: However, kind of the major impact from this so far has been kind of an ash cloud that was initially sent, that initial one that disrupted flights and operations within Manila. So this volcano is located about 37 miles south of Manila, the Philippines Capitol. And so this ash cloud on Sunday really started to kind of disrupt air operations and that's usually the kind of real critical thing with a lot of the volcanic eruptions. There's not a whole lot of major technology bases or industry things kind of at the foothills of a volcano for probably obvious reasons. But certainly is having an impact on the folks that do live near there. There are thousands of people who have been evacuated around the volcano, but that disruption to Manila and major cities kind of around that area is certainly the big thing for travelers. Bray Wheeler: So flights were disrupted Sunday. That continued into really today when operations kind of resumed normally. So for right now for companies, it sounds like Manila is ... The airport is open, Manila is available, it is not under lava, it is not at risk for some kind of awful- Bryan Strawser: This is not Pompeii. Bray Wheeler: Yeah, awful, awful, awful kind of situation. However, there is a major backlog from those flights being delayed here in the last couple of days. There's a lot of people that are just trying to leave the area in addition to that. So there is a lot of travel disruption at the airport in general, but for businesses in Manila, it is important to make sure that you're accounting for your folks you're looking at your business continuity plans. You're monitoring, kind of the air quality, the travel ability within the area. Just kind of really your basics for monitoring those different things. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. I think yesterday when we had a couple of clients that were impacted by this, I think it was kind of a known how long of a problem this was going to be. Of course, the Philippines government doesn't do the best job of kind of communicating what's happening with these things either. But yeah, I think Bray's got it right. I would monitor carefully what's going on. Travel disruption is probably the biggest risk and that would become reality before there was any real disruption in ... I started to say Hong Kong. Many real disruptions in Manila in terms of regular business operations. It's air quality and transportation, particularly air travel issues I think are the biggest issues to keep an eye on, for right now. Bray Wheeler: Yep. So moving on. The next topic we have for this week is BlackRock. The kind of major investments group made an announcement this week that they're going to be holding companies to higher environmental standards. And really the implications here are, this is kind of a conversation long time kind coming and BlackRock has kind of made similar statements in similar positions on some different issues. But really, they've issued an overt threat as we get into the kind of proxy season and board meeting season and shareholder meeting season. Bray Wheeler: They're threatening to vote against management boards that aren't disclosing kind of climate change risks in the fashion that they would like to see them or having those plans kind of associated with those be in line to key industry standards. So standards like CAFE standards, which are really around car emissions or the gold standard for carbon or the IS 14,000 kind of family of standards around kind of climate environmental policies. Those are kind of some of the kind of the major ones that are out there. But really for companies, BlackRock is a huge, huge player in the game. As probably most companies know, but to have a position on climate change risks, climate change plans, that narrative is becoming a bigger and bigger topic just in general. Bray Wheeler: And when some of these bigger players like BlackRock or if Vanguard steps into it or some of these others, companies are going to have to do something about them and start implementing some of those things and having those conversations if they aren't already taking place. And if they are already taking place, making sure that they are aligned to something substantial because these players will not back off of that. And they control big votes. Bryan Strawser: Yeah, I mean I've been down this road, I mean in the previous employer, dealing with activists, investors at various levels of aggression and influence. And then we've had consulting clients that have been the subject of activist investor campaigns including large private equity firms of which BlackRock is pretty much, I think the largest PE firm and portfolio management company that's out there. It's tough to ... I don't want to overemphasize the importance of this play that BlackRock is making. It's going to make some publicly traded companies very uncomfortable to have to address some of these issues. At the same time in less BlackRock is willing to go in and attempt a proxy fight for majority control over this issue. It's not going to have a huge amount of influence on companies that choose to resist them. Bray Wheeler: No, I think though the one-piece with a BlackRock versus kind of more the kind of activist hedge fund managers is oftentimes groups like BlackRock or Vanguard or things like that are seen as active investors. This means they're actively having a dialogue with those corporations and they're actively engaged. There's more of a kind of a partnership kind of approach there. And so I think to your point, BlackRock isn't going to probably issue too many proxy fights against it, but their influence and their vote in the general conversation and with other investors to say, "You know what, you didn't do enough there. And we're choosing to make company X an example here, And we're going to vote against management proposals on whatever or we're going to vote against these board members because they're members of the committee that's charged with overseeing some of these things." That could have an impact in terms of the dialogue and the ability for companies to kind of adjust. Bray Wheeler: And I don't think that they're looking for every company to kind of save the world, but I think they are looking for companies to start being a little bit more frontal. And a little bit more strategic in kind of ... Trying to think of the right word. A little bit more overt in terms of how they're playing within kind of this sphere and what influence they do have kind of on the overall kind of issue itself. Bryan Strawser: I would agree with that. Bray Wheeler: So with that kind of our last topic, and it should be a relatively quick one because of course, they'll probably be more to play out here, but because it has to do with China. Which has been one of our favorite frequent topics here over the last few months? But ironically doesn't have a whole lot to do with Hong Kong, fortunately, but does have to do with Taiwan. Another kind of satellite geographic location within a kind of China's sphere of influence or in this case not influence. Bray Wheeler: So China has always viewed Taiwan as part of China. Taiwan has always in the rest of the world, has always viewed Taiwan as generally independent of China for the most part. There's probably a few kinds of geopolitical exceptions with different countries, but everybody's seen Taiwan as a separate independent country. China very much wants to bring it back to China. They recently had an election over the weekend. It was- Bryan Strawser: It didn't go the way that China thought it was going to. Bray Wheeler: It did not. And actually it surprised quite a few people in terms of how decisive it was against China. So the pro kind of independent President Tsai, and I apologize if I get this wrong. Tsai Ing-wen won decisively. It wasn't too close. Of course, China then responded with their typical bluster of there were hands in the pot, it was rigged. The United States may have had some influence. We don't believe it kind of conversation and narrative that China typically puts out, but in the face of what they're dealing with, Hong Kong and the decisiveness of this Taiwan election. China's kind of in a weird kind of awkward spot for the moment of trying to figure out is this policy and this plan that Xi Jinping has put forth, is that actually bearing fruit? Bray Wheeler: And this was kind of a direct challenge back to the Chinese premier of yeah, we're not falling in line. Your influence has clearly waned, at least in this election of what's going on. So on the heels of continued unrest in Hong Kong, which China has much more control over that situation along with Taiwan. China is kind of in a weird spot right now. Just in kind of in their home area. Bryan Strawser: Yeah, there's a pretty good article coming out of the election in Axios yesterday. I think Axios, China is their smaller magazine, smaller online product that looks at just trying to ... That said that they think that China has been overestimating and over-communicating their influence and wealth and economic growth and military capacity for some time. And then you start to look at ... They were kind of building this off of a couple of different things, but one of the biggest was the Taiwan elections, just not going the way that China was expecting that to go. And really being rebuffed at the polls. And I don't know, I mean maybe I have an American point of view on this, but I've been to Taiwan a couple of times and you walk and talk to folks who live there and folks in Taipei City, I haven't been outside of Taipei. But around Taipei City and none of them want to be part of China. Bray Wheeler: No. Bryan Strawser: They might be interested in a peaceful reconciliation that allows for some easier border movement and some things. But I don't get the sense that the average Taiwanese man or woman wants to live in China. Bray Wheeler: No. Bryan Strawser: Their version of China, Taiwan. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: Not the communist China version of China. Bray Wheeler: Correct. Yeah. I think that's kind of a good read because not only in addition to these elections, there's also the kind of the international and domestic challenges of their kind of their relations with the Muslim minorities within China. And the fallout from some of their policies and things that they've been doing. Reeducation or whatever you want to call it. With some of the children and things like that within these Muslim minority populations and in Western China. Really kind of China's influence over the last few months. It's kind of just taken some weird kind of hits. And I think that Axios article is probably pretty, pretty interestingly kind of accurate in terms of what China is projecting is not necessarily what is reality or what even people have ... Because I think a lot of people kind of internationally probably have some skepticism around China's bluster, but they don't overtly kind of challenge a lot of it because there's a lot of interdependency of where China is interconnected. Whether it's economically or politically or things like that. Bray Wheeler: But to kind of see some of these things start to play out in their kind of their rebuffs just in general within the international community. The trade war, things like that, that they've kind of just taken some weird kind of hits over the last ... Nothing that's going to destabilize or kind of throw them off orbit. But definitely their influence and their kind of reputation or their brand perception to put it in kind of business terms is definitely not what it was six months ago or a year ago. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. I mean I think you're dead on. And we both looked at the article. I thought it was a pretty good summation that China's perhaps not at the peak of their game in some areas that are commonly thought that they were. That article covered the economy and military and might and projection. I think it was really focused on China's Naval fleet and some of the challenges China's had with operating a fleet at the capacity and expertise that the United States and the United Kingdom have. But also just where their foreign policy has perhaps not been as astute in dealing with President Trump and dealing with Taiwan and others in there. And I don't think this takes away anything from China's rise to be a pure competitor of the United States in the long haul, but certainly indicates that perhaps not all as well inside the bubble as the Chinese government might portray itself to be. Bray Wheeler: No, especially post kind of president Xi Jinping election and kind of the expectations that were to come from really kind of that like the lifetime election of him in this role, it's not really what you want to see right out of the gate. Kind of after an election like that to have kind of these types of hits. China probably wanted to see some of this stuff go a little bit more their way to kind of justify what was going on, and especially after everything that he's done internally. Bryan Strawser: Right. That's it for this edition of BryghtCast. We'll be back next week or thereafter with another new episode. Be well.  

In this episode of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast, Bryghtpath Principal & Chief Executive Bryan Strawser, along with Consultant Bray Wheeler, discuss the need to "over-respond", in a manner of speaking, but not overreacting - when it comes to establishing your crisis management framework and your own importance as a leader within your organization.   Related Episodes & Blog Posts Episode #1:  Shouldn't we have a plan for alien invasion? Episode #23: Crisis Management is not a pickup game Episode #47: A crisis team is not an academic debating society //static.leadpages.net/leadboxes/current/embed.js Episode Transcript Bryan Strawser: Welcome to the Managing Uncertainty podcast. This is Bryan Strawser, Principal and Chief Executive here at Bryghtpath. Bray Wheeler: This is Barry Wheeler consultant here at Bryghtpath. Bryan Strawser: You know, I like to think that everybody belongs to a couple of different tribes in their lives. And I don't mean like real tribes but like the tribe of career or community that you've joined. And I've got the whole crisis management and business continuity communities and global security. And I'm Catholic, so I've got my Catholic tribe kind of thing. But I've- Bray Wheeler: Red Sox Nation. Bryan Strawser: Red Sox Nation, absolutely. And the Patriots and the Bruins. The Celtics. But you know, one of my tribes is a... I was never a firefighter, but I worked in law enforcement. So I kind of think of that as a tribe. And I'm an EMT, and I wasn't EMT in the past and I am again now. And I think of that as my tribe. And when we were thinking about this podcast today, What we were going to talk about, over-responding but not overreacting, I was reminded of what very little I know about the fire service. And that is when there's a fire of some type, there's a set response. Bryan Strawser: So a residential fire in Roseville, Minnesota is going to result in two engine companies, a ladder company and a BLS unit and a chief, the battalion chief, going to that. And what that first engine in, the officer on that engine or the chief, if they get there before the apparatus, which is unlikely, the first thing they do is a size up where they walk around the incident. They take a look at it and they're making an instantaneous decision on calling for more resources, or I have what I need to handle this. Bryan Strawser: And that call for resources is usually a little ahead of the actual need. They look at it and they're like, well, I've got like two houses nearby. I'm going to have to mitigate against those homes catching on fire. And I know that has a term in the fire service. I don't remember what it is. But they're going to try to protect these two houses and he's going to need another two engine companies to do that. They're going to make that decision. So they're not... They're responding, but they're also kind of over-responding a bit because they're looking at, well, I might need this and might need this. I'm going to call for these units now. Bray Wheeler: Well, and typically EMS may be en route. Police may be en route. So you have a lot of different emergency services kind of collapsing on that location to- Bryan Strawser: Power and gas. Bray Wheeler: Power and gas. ... to make sure that the right amount of resources had been applied to that situation or are on standby, to your point. Kind of waiting or starting to get into the trucks and ready to go. Bray Wheeler: So, yeah. It's really, I think, where kind of his mantra comes from is really off of that metaphor. And when we think about crises or incidents, things like that, you really want... There's kind of a fine line that organizations typically walk between that kind of over-respond and overreact. And where you, where you definitely want to be is on that kind of over-respond side of the house, rather than the overreacted thing for a lot of different reasons. Bray Wheeler: Because I think what ends up happening is if you tend to drift towards that overreact, or you have people that kind of get worked up easily, they're a little bit more apt to kind of stress the environment out. Kind of overplay what's actually happening. All probably with good intentions, well-intentioned kind of reactions, but still complicating the response. You're creating stress. You're damaging the reputation of kind of the people and the process and those teams, cross-functional teams that you stood up, your plans, all that kind of stuff. Bray Wheeler: Seems like, I don't know if that's really the right approach because everybody gets worked up and stressed out and it's... I don't really like it. You know, I don't feel comfortable. I don't want to play in that space. So I think where you want to be very conscious of making that distinction is in that over-respond, and it's almost a cultural thing, and it's almost something that you tell your leadership, you tell the cross-functional team, you tell key leaders and resources within the company that says, Hey, our default is going to be to over-respond to something. We're not going to overreact, but we're going to over-respond. This means you might get pulled into conversations, you may get asked to do some things kind of at the outset, but we're going to assess this situation and determine do we still need that amount of resources? Do we still need the full cross-functional teams? Do we only need three teams? You know, what is going on and let's apply the right amount of resources. Bray Wheeler: Because I think that's part of the value that you get about over-responding is you're applying that right amount of resources to the situation. But you're also building that muscle memory and that confidence within the cross-functional team that says, Hey, we're getting used to seeing these incidents. We're getting used to identifying what is severe, what's not severe, what's developing, what's not developing. And especially for a young, or kind of fresh cross-functional team, it's super important that there's as much exposure to some of that stuff as possible so that people get a feel for what's important and what's not. Bray Wheeler: But it also kind of demonstrates the value proposition that these plans and cross-functional teams have in an organization. That, within the broader organization, they see it as, Hey, they're stood up to react to the fire that's happening in the organization and they're consistently doing that. It's not, Oh, they picked this one but not this one and what are they really doing? I think this one's important. Why aren't they doing anything? That there is that, Hey, we're going to search and response each time and we're going to assess it based on what we know at the outset and as more people get in the room and say, Hey, I also have this. I have this. Nope, I don't have any impact. I don't have any impact. I don't have any impact. You can really kind of surge response to that and you get a better picture of what's going on. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. I think that the kind of the impetus for the idea behind this episode was something Bray and I had experienced a couple of months back and that was we had a client who has a crisis management process. A very well defined one I think. But they rarely use it. I think they've really kind of put themselves in a place where they don't want to activate that except in the worst-case scenario. As opposed to what we were seeing, which was they had your best-case scenario for a crisis in that you have a weather system coming in that you can see and predict and react to. And they were asking a lot of questions of a bunch of different people, like what's this going to do and are you looking at your plans? Bryan Strawser: And we were just chatting casually with our client and I said, well, why don't you just activate your crisis process? Just use your crisis process. Convene your crisis management team and let's have an open conversation with you leading it, facilitating it, about this situation that you find yourself in. With this severe weather system coming in. Actually it was two severe weather systems coming into two different geographical locations that could potentially have really disrupted some operations just because of the weather. Winter weather in one case and hurricane typhoon like the weather in another case. Bryan Strawser: So let's talk about that openly and let's put you in the middle of that as the crisis leader. As we said in the previous episode, let's make yourself important in the middle of this and use your crisis process to have this conversation. Because now you've activated it so you're getting the benefit of that muscle memory of having worked through it. And two, you're having this open broad conversation amongst a group of middle to senior leaders about what's going on and you're in the middle of it. I thought it was just a great positioning for them. And out of this conversation about having this happen is Bray looks at me and goes, well we want to over-respond, not overreact. And that's where we kind of find ourselves in this conversation on the podcast. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Because even in that conversation there was some apprehension of wow, you know, it doesn't really... Kind of hemming and hawing. It doesn't really meet the criteria or you know, ah, that seems like it's too much. It's not too much. If you've communicated that out to this team, which should be pretty close or developing those close bonds is a kind of a cross-functional team in those relationships, if you say at the outset, Hey, we're going to get together more often than not, and we're going to do it in a kind of organized manner, and we're going to appropriate appropriately react. Bray Wheeler: You know, if we have an active shooter, well that's probably something that we're going to jump into relatively quickly. Stress is going to be relatively up. But if it's a weather system, why aren't we getting together and evaluating that kind of in the same way, but without the kind of natural stress that's happening with that situation. Because it, to your point, it positions the function. It positions that incident leader, that capability, in front of people and lets them see how this process works so that you're developing that muscle memory and that practice and that comfortability with the process in some of these things that might be a little bit more low stress. So when you do get into the higher stress situations, when you jump into that... Hopefully not, but if you should happen to jump into an active shooter situation, you understand what the... You're not fighting the process or the understanding of the process. You're able to kind of jump in and kind of understand what's going on and just start working the problem rather than trying to understand how you should go about working the problem. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. I mean I think it's a chance to use your process the way your process was intended to be used. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: Right? I mean you're using those things that you've outlined as a part of your plan, your framework, to bring that team together and evaluate the situation the way that your process was intended for that to work. Bray Wheeler: And it can be one of those things to where it can be kind of the standard way that you operate is that you're going to react to... Say you have four levels of severity. You probably shouldn't be reacting to the lowest level. Say that's level four. Level one's the highest. You probably shouldn't be convening at a level four. Probably shouldn't be convening at a level three. But, say, for every level two, we are going to convene, and we're going to evaluate to see does is this serious enough that we need to apply resources? Is there anybody in the room that can help? Or do we feel like it's trending still upward and it may reach that one, and we need to prepare ourselves? Bray Wheeler: You may also be in a situation where for a while because you're new, say, you know what, for the first year we're going to convene for every level three and up so that we can get comfortable, we can talk through, we can start to mature ourselves. And maybe halfway through the year you say, you know what, every level two. Or you know, at a certain point you're, you're mature enough and say, Hey, we don't need to convene all the time. We have enough institutional knowledge, enough practice, enough kind of relationship credibility with each other that we don't need to convene as much anymore. We can back that off just a little bit and say we're going to send out some communications around a level two. That's going to be the expectation, is everybody's going to get awareness to level two, and we're going to convene kind of when the incident leader thinks of that business leader thinks. Bray Wheeler: So there are different degrees in which you can kind of over-respond, overreact, and some of that is a maturity thing and some of it's kind of how culturally you should work. But at the very least, especially if you're a new kind of cross-functional team or you've had high turnover or something like that, over-responding is more beneficial than not enough response because, again, we get back into the issues of I don't know what's going on. I don't know who people are. What's happening? On top of, Hey, I need to solve this problem. And that's where you probably tend to get more people going rogue or doing their own thing. But if you're over-responding, you're forcing people into the process and that framework that you've designed. Bryan Strawser: The way you want things to be done. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: Yes. I remember early in my career leading crisis management that I was faced with kind of a similar situation and I wasn't thinking of it in this way, but there were a number of protests going on across the country because of some political issue. And this crisis, so to speak, was being handled primarily by communications because it was viewed as a reputational problem. But these protests were disruptive and the comps team wasn't communicated in the way that we did. There wasn't clear direction being given to teams. And I was in my boss's office complaining about this, like what do we do? And he just looks at me and goes, what do you mean what did we do? You have a crisis management process. You can activate and take... You're not really taking control, but you can at least coordinate this response across the company to a growing disruption and send communication out through your defined communication processes that that is not happening today. Bryan Strawser: So just activate it. And I'm like, why? Why would we do that? It's a protest. He goes, it's a disruption. Activate it. So I went grumbling down the hall and I'm like, wait a minute, if I do this then we're going to have calls to coordinate what's going on. Everyone's going to speak openly and we're going to get good cross-functional collaboration. We're going to be sending out a communication to everyone about what's happening on a regular cadence and stores are going to get direction. Why did I think of us? So by the time I got to my office, I was like, okay, let's activate. Bray Wheeler: The wise mind had kicked in? Bryan Strawser: The wise mind had kicked in. But like this is a... The example of that was entirely an... It was definitely an... It was not an overreaction, but it was definitely an over-response in that this was a minor disruption to the organization, but it cleaned up our response in 24 hours. Like all of a sudden everyone knew what was going on. The action communication to the field organization was clear, and all of the stakeholders and partners that needed to know had clear communication of what was happening. Bray Wheeler: And that's a great example of the benefits of that over response is hopefully what it does is well, kind of a byproduct, is it cleans up those secondary incidents that may occur. So if you watch response to something that's relatively inconsequential, but the way you handle the response becomes the crisis, people are upset about how you went about it, well, that's not the initial crisis, but it's definitely the new secondary emerging crisis out of that. And so hopefully what that over response does is it cleans it up. It, to your example, forces everybody into the room and organizes that response so that it's clear and you don't have folks doing their own thing, creating other issues. Bray Wheeler: All those gaps and issues are known kind of within this organization and can be either addressed immediately or say, you know what, we're parking lighting that. We'll come back to it. We're not- Bryan Strawser: Sticking in the parking lot. Bray Wheeler: Yeah, we're not super worried about that at the moment. We'll come back. Bryan Strawser: And I think there's a lot of connectivity on this topic to our previous episode, episode 86 about making yourself important. And this is episode 87 now. But there's a lot of connectivity because I think that this kind of the similar thought process that we were talking about last week, that you have to make your function important and you have to be willing to put yourself out there as a leader to drive the results that your team is looking for and to make sure your team has the tools and resources and authority to do the things that you want them to do. Bryan Strawser: I think it's closely connected to this. Your willingness to use your processes or maybe bend your processes a little bit to get the outcome that you're trying to achieve for your organization. I think it is about this. I'm going to leverage this process as best I can. I'm going to... And I'm making myself important by making this process stick in this situation. Bray Wheeler: When I think where it comes back to kind of callback to other episodes too, is when we've talked about kind of characteristics of crisis leaders and things like that. This is where these characteristics and that right person or persons in that incident leader role come into play so critically on kind of walking this line. Because if you have somebody who's not very good at it, can get a little bit too emotional, again, with all the positive intent in the world, but if they come across as overreacting to the situation, now you've essentially done harm to the process and the capability that you're trying to build. Bray Wheeler: So it's really important that you find that right person or persons that walk that line of, Hey, I want to be clear. We're over-responding, not overreacting. We are applying this process to see if we need to do more if everybody has what they need if there's any coordination we can help assist with. Great. Do we feel like the severity is appropriate? You know, our thresholds, do they match kind of where we think this is at? Great. They do? Does nobody need anything? Great. Then we will stand this process back up should we need it? Do you know? Bray Wheeler: So it's really walking that line and that's where some of those characteristics we talked about in that previous episode come into play of why you really need to walk that line of and being clear around, we're over-responding, not overreacting. Overreacting gets us in trouble. Over responding may inconvenience a few people from some meetings, but probably isn't going to do any harm to the organization. Bryan Strawser: Right. So I think we've covered the topic here pretty well. Again, if you haven't listened to our previous episode about making yourself important, there's a lot of core correlation between the two. Definitely worth your time to hear episode 85. But with that, let's wrap up episode 86. We'll have a new episode next week. Thanks for listening.  

In this episode of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast, Bryghtpath Principal & Chief Executive Bryan Strawser, along with Consultant Bray Wheeler, discuss making yourself important as your organization's security, continuity, resilience, or disaster recovery leader. //static.leadpages.net/leadboxes/current/embed.js Related Episodes & Blog Posts Episode #21: I hope you dance Episode #46: Interacting with the C-Suite Episode #84: Making the case to Leadership Episode Transcript Bryan Strawser: Hello and welcome to the Managing Uncertainty Podcast. This is Bryan Strawser, Principal and Chief Executive here at Bryghtpath. Bray Wheeler: This is Bray Wheeler, Consultant here at Bryghtpath. Bryan Strawser: In today's episode we're going to talk about the idea of making yourself important as leaders in these fields around resilience that we focus on here. Security, crisis management, business continuity, intelligence, crisis communications. I'll start off by saying I had a friend in my previous company, we grew up together in the organization. We were close friends, kind of fell out a little bit and got back, came back into each other's circles when he was fighting cancer. Unfortunately the person I'm talking about, Josh Harden died in 2011. Josh had a couple of different sayings and one of them was that as a leader in the security world, and that's what we were doing at the time, that you have to find ways to make yourself important, that you have to be willing to make yourself important. He always illustrated that through a story about you can't wait for your ticket to the dance. Bryan Strawser: You just have to show up which would be a very Josh way of saying that you need to make yourself important, that you need to be willing to go out and proactively engage. I would say, as you know, I've spent almost 30 years now in this field, I would say that there's a lot of times I see leaders who, yes, we're all in support functions but we're also in very important support functions. In a lot of cases that we're not willing to dance, we're not willing to go out there and put ourselves out and be aggressive in an appropriate way about advocating for what we need in terms of resources and personnel and doing the right thing by your team. I mean, those kinds of things are hard. I think sometimes we think, well, I'm a support function so I'm just going to hide here in my corner and no one will bother me. That's no way to move forward, move your company forward or to advance the careers of your team or do the right thing by your organization. Bray Wheeler: Sure. Well, I mean, it's hard enough when you're a profit center for an organization to go make requests for resources and capital and all that other stuff. It's really hard when it's a support function because you almost feel guilty walking into those conversations going, I need resources, I need this, I need this to help. I think part of that complexity there is a lot of the stuff it's not organic business type things that people in the organization intrinsically get. It's real hard. It's kind of its niche kind of specialty things that once you get it aren't hard, but on the surface kind of looking in, it can be a little intimidating on their part and thereby, do we really need it or how important is it? You know, that kind of stuff. We don't know who's probably listening to this podcast. This stuff is real important. You should make it real important. Bryan Strawser: In doing so you should make yourself important. I feel like I see this a lot in two specific disciplines. I see this in what I would think of as general security, corporate security endeavors. I see this just as much in business continuity where leaders simultaneously complain about not having the things that they want or need or not getting the respect they think they deserve in the organization. Then at the same time not being willing to engage in the things you need to do in order to obtain those resources. I feel like that comes up a lot. Often, I think rather that we've just made some of this too complicated. I think one of my common sayings that I got from my wife's friend, Fred Klapetzky, who she used to work with it at Ernst & Young. Fred would say, business continuity is not rocket science. As a leader in business continuity, your challenge is not deciphering the rocket science, but it's really about how do you market this internally to your organization to make it important, and in doing so you're making yourself important. Bray Wheeler: To demonstrate the value of what it brings to that business process, that function of the company, to the company itself. Bryan Strawser: I remember early in my career with our previous organization where, man, I couldn't have been with the company for a year yet. I was in a retail store and I was in a security function, plainclothes security function. My job was to catch shoplifters and deter other kinds of incidents. Morning huddle before the store opened, the leader on duty was like, hey, we're having a visit today from, I want to say the guy's name was Fred something. He was like the ops specialist for the region and he's going to be looking at some things. I walked up to her later and I go, I'll do my best to be out of the way. She goes, no, you should meet Fred. Fred is a good leader. Fred will take an interest in you and how else are you going to learn how this company works if you're hiding because you think that he's not interested because you work in security, you would both be wrong and that would not be the right thing for your career. You need to know this guy. Sure. You know what? She was right. Fred was actually was interested, had advice and there were a number of other things I've learned in that interaction. My initial response was, well, I should just go hide in the office. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bray Wheeler: I'll stay out of the way. Bryan Strawser: I'm the security guy. Bray Wheeler: I'll stay out of the way. Bryan Strawser: No, I made myself important because Theresa told me I should make myself important. Bray Wheeler: It really is. In order to advance the things that, the work that you're doing, people have to know who you are. They need to know you're a resource. They need to know you're not only you but your team as well, and stressing kind of the importance of your team within the organization. If you're fortunate to have a couple people helping support some of these functions, in a lot of cases it's a one-person shop. If you do have other components even if it's down to the hourly person in the app center, you're putting a face, you're putting some known entities, people are more likely to gravitate towards that. Putting yourself out there is huge to start drawing that interest in that business and really it's not about you, it's about what your function can do for the organization and do for other people rather than waiting until they're coming to find you because they need something. Because most of the time they're only going to do that. They're only going to come find you when it benefits them or they need something. Bryan Strawser: Right. I mean, I see this a lot. I think earlier in my career, I took me a while to really understand this and have the confidence to be willing to do the things that I think you need to do to make yourself important. I remember this kind of pivotal moment watching something happen in front of my eyes that I wouldn't have done because I just didn't think of the business in this way. We were at a regional meeting in Nashville, Tennessee and we were at a mixer. One of those mixers you don't really have anymore where there's alcohol and that kind of thing. I don't know, there's a couple of hundred of us in this courtyard area at the hotel the event was at. I was talking with my boss and he watched his boss walk over who is from a different part of the company had never really worked in our area. Bryan Strawser: He went over and started talking with the senior vice president for our region and then went over and sat in the corner and they had a drink together privately and were chatting for quite a while. You could tell that it was just this interesting interaction between somebody that run the whole business for a fourth of the organization, and somebody who is new at the director level but had never worked in that region before talking. I was fascinated by this interaction because he was two levels above me but I was like, I'm never going to have that kind of confidence to walk over and have that conversation. But what that individual was doing was he was making himself important. He was seeking advice from a senior leader. He was trying to understand the region and what was going on. I only know this because I later asked him about this interaction in a mentoring conversation we're having. That guy that did that, by the way, is now the CEO of Lowe's. It was Marvin Ellison, CEO of J. C. Penney, President at Home Depot, previous VP of Security in Home Depot, prior to that was at Target. Bray Wheeler: I don't know Marvin personally, but I know a lot of people who knew him and kind of came up through the ranks in this organization and yeah, it very much sounds like his MO to go out there and share that story... I think if you follow him on social media and things like that, he's still doing that kind of stuff even at that top level of putting himself out there and sharing his story and understanding what other people's stories are to make the organization better and to understand what's going on. I think that's the flip side of that too, is if you're a leader of one of these functions, make sure that you're making those functions important, but also advocating as well back within the organization as, hey, these are people you guys should go meet. Bray Wheeler: My team is working out some stuff and here's what they can do for you. If you're not doing that, you're probably not the best leader in the organization. It's important to remember to share that. Just share that story rather than waiting for a problem to arise to demonstrate the value or sharing those things like waiting until you have to have these conversations. The more proactive you are I think is really kind of where we're getting to is the more proactive you are, the better off your organization's going to be in that function is going to be to support the broader org. Bryan Strawser: As consultants, I feel like, you know, when we're working inside of an organization, we have a little bit of immunity to the corporate political game at that company that goes on because we're really getting paid to be very straight forward with our advice and observations and recommendations. I mean I think there's been the countless number of times even this year where we've been working with different clients, and at the heart of some of the challenges, we would hear something like, well, I can't drive that. I can't push that person because they're a business leader and they're not going to want to listen to [inaudible] me. We're like, but you need to push that team, that person, this initiative because it is important because it is as you've defined the right thing to do to advance your strategies and your strategies are tied to the strategic objectives of the organization, and they are therefore important. In a lot of cases, they'll have the senior leadership support to do the things that they need to put in place, but they can't knock down the barriers that are in the way and in the middle, middle management kind of challenges and be willing to push. Bray Wheeler: That becomes the part of the art to the science of all of it is trying to figure out who those key partners are and making sure that they are your partners and that they're not seeing you and you're trying to not see them as the obstacle. It's one of those things kind of your point a second ago is in the most professional business-appropriate kind of way, you almost need to stay in their face. You need to stay in their face until you've come to some sort of resolution of where that value is or where the issue is or where that problem that needs to be solved is. Really, it's about solving the problem rather than, again, back to making yourself important. It really is how do you solve the problems for the organization. Bray Wheeler: If you're not trying to knock those walls down, if you're not trying to build those bridges after you've knocked the wall down, you're not doing your job and it's not going to be as effective in terms of the benefits and the outcomes that you're seeking with some of the stuff. Again, this is support, critical support functions to the organization that needs to take place but aren't going to be seen probably as such and just reality because they're not typically profit centers. Bryan Strawser: Right. I mean we talked before I think in a couple of episodes ago about how do you get support for things that you want to do and we talked a little bit about quantitative and qualitative benefits of doing some things. These areas are almost never profit centers to an organization, but we should not let that be the barrier to seeking the kind of resources and tools, software, capital, et cetera to do the job the way that your company has hired you to do the job and advance those things for your team. I remember arguing once for business continuity software, and the way it worked is that you went into a big capital prioritization meeting for technology projects and there were representatives from all the business and support teams. They were like, my boss was a person that sat at the table. I don't know, there were probably 16, 17 people in the room in addition to everyone else that was presenting. Bryan Strawser: Then a bunch of IT leaders who Strava was supposed to put obstacles in front of pretty much everything. I presented for business continuity software. The financial return on implementing the software was exactly zero. I mean, it was a money-losing proposition but we were manually managing more than 200 business continuity plans and close to 150 plus disaster recovery plans using a home-baked SharePoint tool. We went in and asked for this money. The first year I asked for it, I didn't get it. It was not an insignificant spend, but it wasn't a huge spend. I went and met with our VP over IT stuff that supported our organization later and said, "Why didn't we get that?" "Well, the reason Bryan is that we prioritized getting new price range software that was going to make the company 40 million dollars in profit versus your money-losing BC tool," but come back. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: The next fiscal year there I was, I got it at that time. Again, it was the example of, I think this is a good example of the business case was stacked against it in terms of financial return but it was the right thing to do that align with our strategic objectives. I wasn't going to be afraid of going in and presenting and representing my function and asking for the tools we need to do the job the way the company wanted me to do the job. Bray Wheeler: Wait. Bryan Strawser: I just had to wait a year, which by the way, I complained about that for a year. Bray Wheeler: I'm sure. Well, it's making yourself important again, making sure you remain important. Yeah, I mean sometimes it's to your point, it's just the competition that's almost stacked against you internally in terms of what big dogs are coming to play at the table. It may not just be for capital, it might be for a strategy or a process or prioritization of, hey, we got to get this initiative done before we can get to this one. I think the message that came through in that kind of after meeting is really like, there's still is value to what's happening. When we see everything on paper and we're looking strategically at what's going on, we can't make that decision today because there is a workaround that's in place right now, but come back and eventually, you'll be able to click. I think that's another piece of this is not getting discouraged when somebody doesn't see your value or you bump up against bigger competition for those resources at that point that it's just not your day. You come back and you wait and you try it again and make sure that the story remains at the forefront to say, hey, this is still a thing. It's still a thing. It's still a thing. Bryan Strawser: I was making a snide comment that I complained about this for the better part of the year before I went back and argued, but really what I did is I met with every leader that had a say in this thing in the time between one year and the next and I made my case for why we needed this probably to the point of annoyance. Bray Wheeler: Sometimes that works. Bryan Strawser: Sometimes that works. The squeaky wheel gets the grease. I also did, and I tried to do this not in a snide manner, but sometimes my sarcasm comes out. Every time that something happened that we needed information that would've been in a tool like this, I pointed that out, particularly when we happened to have a data center problem and the CIO goes, well, what about what's here versus there and blah, blah blah. We all looked at each other. I'm like, well, we would know the answer to that but we didn't get our tool so we're going to have to go do some manual analysis to figure out the answer to that question, which was we didn't really have time for that. We had some decisions to make. I tried to do that. Again, I tried to do that not in a sarcastic or snide manner but I think important to point out like we made some priorities and decisions and that's what you're getting paid to do. I'm here to tell you that if you had decided differently then we would have this. Bray Wheeler: Right. On the surface, the request for, in this example, the software, it's a zero return in that proposal but when you're able to start demonstrating in real life- Bryan Strawser: Yeah, the qualitative value. Bray Wheeler: Hey, I would know this and you'd be saving money right now. There is financial value somewhere in there, but you can't say, well, three months from now we're going to have a data center issue and it's going to save you this amount of money. When it happens, you can start totaling that up and saying, hey, between last presentation and this presentation where we're asking for this, we could have potentially saved this amount of money during that time on top of, yeah, it's a zero return but we could have saved this much. Bryan Strawser: I think another thing that we haven't really talked about in this discussion about making yourself important is the more than the teams that you interact with come to believe that you understand their business and that you understand the principal business of the organization, the more important I think you become as a partner in their eyes. Particularly if you start to value the same kind of thing like you have a shared value system. I think the best place I can illustrate this is the first 12 years of my career I was in the field. I was in a retail organization. I was a security manager and district and group manager, so I'm running increasingly larger security teams but I am directly supporting the retail stores. That's where my team is at. That's where I'm at every day. I'm partnering with a business leader over the stores just like there was an HR partner there with us as well. The three of us were kind of the leadership team. Bryan Strawser: I feel like particularly after a couple of years under my belt, I could look at a store the same way that my partner did. I understood what was important to him or her. I reinforce our shared expectations with the stores' organization. The stores looked at me in the same way as, hey, this is a district or group level leader coming to visit. I'm going to shape up and I'm going to take this visit seriously. I'm going to give Bryan the same respect that I'm going to give to my boss. I feel like I earned that because part of elevating my role was understanding what was important to the business and looking at things through their eyes and being able to reinforce that when I was out and about in a store. I'm here to visit. I wasn't going there to visit my team. I was going there to visit the store and my team was a part of that visit. Bray Wheeler: Yeah, your focus happened to be a specific area of it, but it didn't take away from a broader view. I think that's hugely important in terms of those partnerships and related things to that is and a key piece of that is being authentic about it. It can't just be superficial, oh yeah, tell me, okay, you cover X, Y, Z, great and go regurgitate it to somebody else. You have to authentically care about what that is and start to get into the weeds, to your point, knowing what your partner leader would be looking for, what they're interested in so that you can articulate that and reinforce that. Bray Wheeler: It almost becomes a united front. A lot of times in some of these areas were like a BC in a DR where they might be organizationally different in different locations, there's got to be that shared connectivity of what that is. It's almost a united front that you can speak to the other's business because at the end of the day there's an intrinsic connection there that has to happen for the organization regardless. You might as well be a united front in that and be able to make your cases in different places. Bryan Strawser: Well, I think it works to your advantage too because then your business partner is looking at your function, security in this case, as an integral part of making his or her business operations successful and allows you to drive your own priorities by essentially teaching them what you want them to look at when they're in a store. Like, here are the three or four questions that I want you to ask, or here are the three or four things I want you to look at when you're in. I didn't have to worry about basic physical security stuff after a while because everybody understood that no matter who was coming, they were looking at like, are the doors locked, is the truck dock secure, is the back door secure, what's in your storage trailers, what's the security team up to. Bryan Strawser: There were questions that went along with that. I think it's a force multiplier if you're able to establish that. The selfish part of it was it elevated my role as a security leader. It elevated the importance of my team's role in the stores because we were viewed as a partner. Our job was to enable the business. It wasn't to obstruct. It wasn't to obstruct. Right? There's a reason we lock these things, here's why and why that's important, why that's part of our value system here of what we do. Yeah, but that's part of enabling and protecting your business, not, I'm trying to get you in trouble because you didn't padlock a dock door or whatever. Bray Wheeler: Well, I think your force multiplier point, when you have multiple leaders advocating for the same thing, whatever that thing is, the gap or the opportunity that needs to be addressed, it's a lot easier to make the case or to get those resources when multiple people are saying, this is a thing, this is a thing we need to address. Hey, have you guys addressed the thing over in this other area? That speaks volumes. It makes people pay attention to the fact that they're hearing it from different people even though you're kind of like-minded and situationally, you know, positionally the same within the organization or as a functional capability. Bray Wheeler: If you have multiple people saying it, somebody may have credibility with another leader that you don't necessarily have because you haven't had as much interaction or there's, you know, be real, there could be history there or something like that. When somebody else says it, going, oh, okay. Yeah, I'll take an interest in that. That force multiplier piece I think is a great point in terms of that's why you share your story. That's why you put yourself out there. That's why you make friends like we've talked about before when you need a friend- Bryan Strawser: It's too late to make one. Bray Wheeler: It's too late to make one. Bryan Strawser: I'm reminded too of another, well, I ended up from my time in the stores that I think is illustrative of something that you just brought, that you just mentioned. I remember having had a high potential leader one time working for me in Boston who was running the hell out of a super difficult store that was a mess when he got there. We'd changed the store manager and some other things had happened. He was doing great and my boss and I wanted to send him through initial interviews to promote to run a district of his own, so run eight to 10, 12 stores. We're in a talent planning meeting, and talent planning meetings were conducted as a big team so your partners from HR and the stores were all there. Bryan Strawser: We're just as openly talking about store managers as we are, you know, the managers under them including the security manager and HR manager in the store, which of course had independent reporting relationships. These guys were part of my team. I'm walking through like next-level talent, here's what I think I want to do. I remember my group vice president goes, hey, you know, I've met this guy that you're talking about, but I've never had a real conversation with him so I'm going to trust you on this but I'm part of the interview process. The next time I'm in the store, we need to make sure he's more visible. It was an interesting conversation I had with my manager in the store because what I wanted him to do was make himself important. I wanted him to step up in a visit from essentially the store managers, bosses, bosses' boss, and have an interaction with them not because we're trying to get him in trouble, right. Bryan Strawser: I want to put him in front of somebody who's going to interview him and let him have a chance to have a more normal interaction. He was terrified. Now, to be fair, when I was his age, I was kind of terrified to this too. He was terrified. It was like, well, he doesn't want to hear from me. I'm like, actually he's asking to get to know you better. Right? We're going to do two things. You're going to prep two, three, four things that you want to say to him, talk with him about. You're going to run them past me so I can help you get the right things. Then second, you're going to lunch with us, with just us. It's going to be like four of us. You're coming. He said, "I don't want to do that." We can go over to you, but you need to. Bray Wheeler: You're right. Bryan Strawser: You need to because he wants to get to know you. This will make the interview process easier. You've got to make yourself important. He's not just coming to the store to visit with the store manager and that team, you are part of that team. He's coming to see the whole business and you're an important part of the business. Trust me. I mean, okay, so there were a few social missteps along the way, but you did a great job. He's gone on to have an incredible career, probably not due to me, due to others that he's working with but it was that interaction. It was making himself important, getting him that visibility. I don't think he would have done that on his own. Bray Wheeler: No. I think that for me too personally that it's a real challenge to try and get over that hump of talking about yourself, talking about your function, making yourself important, doing those things. It can be really intimidating and scary, but now with the wisdom of age and experience and just looking at it from just this... You know, even just looking at it from a business standpoint, not even personal pieces of it, putting yourself out there and sharing that story and making these things important to other people, I think we've talked about it quite a bit now, is critical. Even if you viewed it less about yourself and more about trying to take a view of, hey, this is about my function and our role or our capabilities or our importance within the organization. You should be able to speak to that regardless of the personal components of it. I mean, it can be intimidating. It can be scary. Bray Wheeler: I think if that is the case, it is going to your leader and having those conversations of saying, hey, this is the story I want to share. Did I craft this right? This is what I'm thinking. Hey, I want to go talk to these people because I feel like they have the keys to the doors to be able to get to these other people or to get to these other functions. Part of that is being a little bit strategic about who you're talking to and who you're sharing your story and potentially in what order, because sometimes that matters too. I think it's important. Bryan Strawser: That's it for this episode of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast. We hope you tune in next week. In the meantime, don't wait for your ticket to the dance. Just show up.

In this edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast, Bryghtpath Principal & Chief Executive Bryan Strawser submits himself to questioning from Bryghtpath Consultant Bray Wheeler on the topic of how to make the case to leadership to gain new resources, headcount, finances, or approval for a project. Related Episodes & Blog Posts Episode #21: I hope you dance Episode #81: When to bring in a consultant and use them effectively Blog Post: How to sell your business continuity program to senior executives //static.leadpages.net/leadboxes/current/embed.js Episode Transcript Bryan Strawser: Hello and welcome to the Managing Uncertainty podcast. This is Brian Strawser, principal and chief executive here at Bryghtpath. Bray Wheeler: This is Bray Wheeler, consultant here at Bryghtpath. Bryan Strawser: We're going to do something a little different today. We're going to... Well, I think to frame this up, Bray is essentially going to interview me about making the case to leadership, a topic that we've explored elsewhere but we haven't really talked about too much, you know, here on the podcast. Bryan Strawser: We've had this idea for this episode sitting around in the hopper for quite some time, for a year, but it really comes from my experience growing into being a senior leader at my previous employer and getting to that place where I was the subject matter expert and the leader of the team, and having to go to leadership and often going to business leadership above my direct boss in order to make the case for things you wanted to do in the process of obtaining everything from budgets, expense, and travel, and resources, to headcount, to capital dollars for software or for facilities and emergency operation centers and that kind of thing. Bryan Strawser: So I don't know the questions. Bray Wheeler: It's a mystery. Bryan Strawser: Bray has got some role written here that I can see, and we're just going to have an open conversation around these. I'll attempt to answer, and I'm sure Bray will have some color commentary along the way. Bray Wheeler: Let's do it. Bryan Strawser: Let's do it. Bray Wheeler: So yeah, I just have kind of some basic questions and they're a little bit open-ended, and kind of let you riff, and I can ask some follow-ups here. But really in terms of making the case to leadership, how is that something that's... You know, just at the start here, how do you prepare yourself for that? Bray Wheeler: You've been asked to go present on X topic. Does it make a difference in terms of what the topic is and how you prepare, or just generally how are you thinking about it? How are you preparing to go have that conversation, that presentation? Bryan Strawser: I think the context matters a little bit. I mean certainly at our last employer where we worked together prior to Bryghtpath there were formal processes in presenting to leadership about things. There was a capital expenditure committee that if you were going to ask for money over X dollars out of capital, even though your budget had already been approved you had to go in and present the request, and they were very formal. Bryan Strawser: It had to be in a certain format. They were originally on big display boards and they eventually went to PowerPoint, but you literally had like three minutes typically to make this case. Now what that meant was the real meetings were the meetings before the meeting with all the members of the expenditure committee to make sure that they had a chance to weigh in, so you're kind of time lining this stuff out, 30, 60, 45 days to get there. Bryan Strawser: So setting the formal thing aside, the real decisions were made in small group meetings or one-on-one meetings. It would be my boss and I, but it was my meeting. Like he was there... He or she was there to deal with certain things, but like it was my presentation to that senior leader. Bryan Strawser: I always kind of thought of this... And I learned this from Rob [Borsch 00:03:22], who I worked for several years. I tried to figure out like what was the catch in there that went along with whatever it was that I was about to do, the thing that would stick with them, right? Bryan Strawser: So, you know, one of the projects I led in my former life was this just massive, and I mean massive, retrofit of video surveillance equipment from VCRs in the original DVR state. I'm not kidding, VCRs in some stages to IP based video that used, you know, [inaudible] parts, commercial off the shelf systems cobbled together, so to speak, into this video surveillance system. Bryan Strawser: We definitely had to have a narrative that went along with that, because this was a big spend. This was board-level spend to get the project approved and then the year-over-year spend. Bryan Strawser: So we really spent a lot of time thinking about like what's the narrative that we want to tell around this and how do we do our due diligence around... Like what are the questions that we were going to... We started to anticipate the questions we were going to get and how do we make sure we have a good, logical, detail around how we were going to deal with those questions. Bryan Strawser: There were always questions about the business case. There were always questions about why did you pick these stores versus all stores, and we had to deal with... In some cases, you know, in a corporate leadership team, an executive team that reports to the CEO, there's usually a pretty good divergence of opinions on not necessarily the vision, but about how to do things and how do you get there. Bryan Strawser: In some cases, we had folks who were like well you should just retrofit everything to the new system. We were like yeah, I mean but you're not going to give us $450 million, or whatever. I mean it was some absurd amount of money, but like here's the logic we got to this. Bryan Strawser: You tried to present the material in a way that you got questions that you expected versus like well I don't understand why you picked these stores versus these stores. We could answer that by explaining the methodology, but when somebody started nitpicking, I mean that would be bad. You're off the topic of like I need the money to do this. Here's the business case. Bryan Strawser: I think the other thing related to this that's important to consider is it's rare to have a profit generating project out of the support function like corporate security, which was our team, global security at the time. Bryan Strawser: It's hard to bring a project forward and say hey, we're going to make money on this, so you really had to think about the qualitative business case and make sure that those things were tied to the company's strategic objectives. Like keeping people safe and having a retail environment where women were comfortable shopping at night were core parts of what our mission was because it tied directly to the guest base, the customer base of the company. Bryan Strawser: So we could emphasize those things because we knew that they would resonate as opposed to don't look over here where this project loses $40 million in net present value because it doesn't generate any cash flow. It's just a spend. Bryan Strawser: That's a pretty broad answer to your question, but that's what we went after, like what's the narrative, what questions did we think we were going to get, how do we make sure the drafts are crafted material to head off those questions or address head-on, what was the business case, quantitative and qualitative. Bray Wheeler: So kind of around that, kind of drilling into kind of those components of that, what would you say... What's the most effected elements kind of within that? So taking like the narrative itself, kind of as you're laying it out what are those kind of like key pieces in that narrative portion, or like the key moments of your presentation? What do you typically kind of default to as you're kind of setting it up or you're making the case? Bryan Strawser: I mean I tried to craft the narrative in a way that it was fricking obvious as possible that we needed to do this thing. If that meant we had to have... Sometimes we had data that backed up the position, sometimes we didn't. I really aimed to have like what's an interesting narrative to address here. That narrative needs to connect to the company's strategic objectives, and then that we made the case just in a very strong manner to get us the things that we needed. Bryan Strawser: I think for example... I was trying to think of public-facing things I could talk about. For example, one of the things at our former employer that rolled out about, well more than 10 years ago now, were vehicles for parking lot patrol. I think it was initially Segway and then later the T3 motion vehicles. Bryan Strawser: You could go... I mean I'm not telling you any trade secret here. They're out there. There was press when the company did it. The segue project was actually... It got a lot of criticism at first because people were like you're just buying some toys. Yeah, we're not. Like, look at the data. Let me show you data behind this because honestly, I didn't believe it at first, that this was going to work. It was another one of my boss' crazy ideas that had come up. But you know what? It did work. So here's the structured analysis that we did and here's the drop in parking lot crime that occurred because of this. Bryan Strawser: Now the narrative was about here's the issue with parking lot crime. Here's the perception of customers based upon a survey from a team... There was a research team that did that kind of thing. Here's what our customers tell us is important to them. Safety was like the number two thing on choosing where to shop. Here's what we're going to do to drive down the parking lot crime rate. Bryan Strawser: Essentially it wasn't crime that occurred in the stores. Crime was occurring in the parking lots. So here's how we were going to address this. And look, we piloted this in 40 some stores and here are the results we had, which the results were awesome. Actually, after the first year, our results in the actual deployment were better than our pilot. Bryan Strawser: So it kind of... I mean it led them to a place that just... It was obvious that we should do this. The other thing too is I would say just where it's possible just take advantage of the fact if you're working on something cool that you find some cool ways to share that. Honestly, part of what sold this, we took executives for a segue ride. Bray Wheeler: Really? Bryan Strawser: Yeah. I mean we took them on a... We brought the segue up to one of the floors where the execs were at and we let them ride it around. So here's the CEO riding a segue going, "That's like the coolest thing I've ever done." Great. I'm about to ask you for $1.4 million to buy more, or whatever. I don't remember what the numbers were. So look for ways to do that. Bray Wheeler: Almost make it interactive? Bryan Strawser: Make it interactive. Make it fun. But again, you got to tailor this to your- Bray Wheeler: The audience? Bryan Strawser: The audience. Right. Some folks are not into that kind of thing. Bray Wheeler: So in terms of... So say you're... You talked a little bit about kind of the pre-meetings, but then going into the kind of official meeting where say the case you're making doesn't allow for kind of the pre-meetings. How do you condense, or what are kind of the steps in terms of kind of taking that allotted time that you have... Say you have three minutes to make your case. What are you kind of shooting for in those three minutes? Bray Wheeler: Sitting around kind of that narrative in the scripting of how you're making that case, but that becomes a factor for folks in terms of I have this really great story to tell. I can't possibly tell you that in three minutes. Like how do you get it down to that three minutes to five minutes, whatever it is? Bryan Strawser: One of my former mentors who still works in the field at a different organization told me once that when you're talking to folks at this level there are just three things to remember, be good, be brief, be gone. Bryan Strawser: So three to five minutes I think to ask for capital was pretty much in the amount... Is what I recall from my time there. There's a little bit of formality at the beginning. We're requesting blah, blah, blah, blah for whatever, fully funded within our capital budget. Bryan Strawser: Then I would just switch from there to my narrative. My narrative is I'm going to say about a minute, 45 to 60 seconds on the narrative, like I've got a story to tell. I want to paint a vision or paint the problem very clearly. Here's the solution. Here's what we've seen from the tests or the pilot, or here's what it's going to look like, or whatever the answer is to that, and then here are the benefits. Bryan Strawser: Of course they're going to have a financial analysis in front of them which might paint an ugly picture. Walkthrough that briefly, or in some cases, Finance came with us and they addressed the finance questions on like on our big stuff. If you had brought the analyst along that was better in trying to explain why was the cash flow low. Well, I don't know. I'm not- Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Let the money guy talk money. Bryan Strawser: This was before I went to business school, so I was a little better at this after getting through accounting and finance classes at the grad level. Bryan Strawser: Then just the wrap-up, I would try to just end early and have questions, and there are always... There were almost always questions. Bray Wheeler: What kind of questions did you typically see? What was kind of the most frequent flyer, and then what was kind of the craziest questions? Bryan Strawser: Yeah. I mean sometimes there were some clarifying questions like so this is for 300 stores? Yes, and the 300 stores are on page four of this tab or whatever. There was always a list of the stores that were impacted or other facilities. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. Sometimes they would ask if so-and-so had seen this, like have you worked through... Yes. Have you done this? Yes. I led the design team for a while and we did a lot of stuff with the folks that built and designed, the architects and the planners. They're in the room because most of what goes on here were new store approval and remodel approval. Bryan Strawser: When they were like have you spoken with... Or what is the planning team say, I would just turn to them because they're in the room. Like your the SVP for architecture, and he would... I mean clearly if he supported it is why we were there. If he didn't, we never would have made it this far. So yeah, he would get up and [crosstalk] blah, blah, blah, blah. Bryan Strawser: A good example was security cameras on the outside of stores, right? This company was very particular about the prototype and the look and feel of a facility, and that was one of the things that architecture and planning SVP asked me to fix when I came into that role 13 years ago. It's like we built these beautiful buildings and then you hang these damn cameras on there. Bryan Strawser: So we found a way to do this better, right, and then we took it forward for retrofits or whatever. That question came up and I just gave it to him and he goes, "Well, yeah, architecturally we didn't like it, so we've worked with the [inaudible] team to come up with a better solution and this is it, and we fully support it." It doesn't get any better than that. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: I have seen... I mean, unfortunately, you know, feedback at that level, it's just very direct. Sometimes we took things in there and we had to bring them back because somebody didn't like something, and they don't like to have conflict amongst each other in the room. Bryan Strawser: Usually the conflict was financial related, so we'd have to go back and then go back to the CFO and... Mind you, we've done that once. Bray Wheeler: Sure. Bryan Strawser: But we'd always come out with a better effort I think in the end because the questions were almost always like... They were pretty valid about what to do. Bryan Strawser: This never happened to me, but I was witness to a number of individuals who just got destroyed in there, I would say because they either didn't anticipate the questions that they were going to get and therefore didn't have very good answers, or at least didn't anticipate some of the themes of the questioning, and then just sometimes stuff comes in that's just not... It's just a bad idea and it doesn't fit with the corporate objectives, but somehow it gets up to we're going to go to this meeting and just get... It was ugly. Bryan Strawser: My biggest effort that I ever took in there, the person in front of us... Because you're in the room for the two presentations in front of you, like in the next at-bat circle, in the on-deck or whatever, and you would... You'd watch the two in front of you, and the person in front of us just got pummeled over something and it just... It was a bad idea and I'm not sure why they got that far, but it got tore up, and then like, "Okay, Bryan Strawser you're up," and I'm like oh boy, don't hang any curveballs. Bray Wheeler: Right. That was actually... My next question here was just around... You started to touch on this but in terms of making a case what should be avoided? What are the bad elements? What are bad prep ideas that influence or impact the way that these presentations go? Were there common factors in there? Bryan Strawser: Yeah. I mean there's a couple. One is like what I mentioned earlier. It's don't bring bad ideas forward. You need to have some ways to be able to vet that information. You need to have some ways to vet this information upfront with the trusted partners so that you're not taking anything that's just a bad idea, that's kind of dumb, forward to the group. Bryan Strawser: You can't rely upon... I saw someone once make an argument that we needed to do something because they were professionally certified in the field and this is what we should do. I was sitting in the room as somebody who also had the same professional certification and thought that was the dumbest thing I'd ever heard. Bryan Strawser: So just because... Don't make that argument to executives. It will not resonate. You need to do this because I have my certified business professional certification. No, they will not care one iota. To me, those were table stakes to play in this field anyway. That doesn't make you necessarily better than another person or have better ideas. Bryan Strawser: So those are things I think you want to avoid. You really have to be able to just get to the point and show that you've done your homework, you understand the issue, that you're putting forward the best possible solution, that you've anticipated these questions about scope, scale, severity, spend. Can you narrow it down? Can you do more? All these things have come up to me in the approval conversation about let's do all stores, let's do no stores, let's cut this by half. You need to be able to have that discussion, but you also need to know when you've lost the point and just back off and go somewhere else. Bryan Strawser: I think good practice for this honestly is listening to US Supreme Court arguments because attorneys before the Supreme Court get 15 to 30 minutes to make their case, and they get about a minute into that before the Justices just start in. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: Right? And the questions are like... And the questions are hard. I think that's good practice for the kind of thinking about what you're going to have to do in these conversations. Bray Wheeler: How that narrative works? Bryan Strawser: Right. Bray Wheeler: How do you know... So going back to your kind of the bad idea point, how do you know what's a bad idea, given that if I'm presenting a case to you as leaders and I think this is the greatest thing I've ever thought of, how am I warning myself that it's a bad idea? What are those steps in there that should be taken for sure kind of practically for faults? Bryan Strawser: I think it is where you need good feedback partners. You need to make sure that you're working with a good leader that can guide you on these things, serve as a partner who's been down this road before. I think having peers or others that have had to do this and have them give you thoughts and ideas about what has and has not worked for them. You need someone that is willing to look at and talk through your idea and give you insight and input on where should you go with this. I think that's helpful. Bryan Strawser: I had a mixed bag there. I always had leaders who were very good at this particular topic. When I was a manager, my directors were really good at this. When I was the director, my chief security officer and the VPE was really good at this, although he would never go and do it himself. We always had to go and ask for capital, and that's fine. Sometimes he was in the room and sometimes he was like, "Have fun. Let me know how it goes." Bryan Strawser: But I think you need those folks just for your general professional development, but I think those are good folks to bounce things off of to make sure you're not just coming forward with a really dumb idea. Bray Wheeler: Do you have to go seek out like a really tough critic in some cases, or not always, or not necessarily? Bryan Strawser: I think you should have... I don't know if you necessarily need a tough critic, but I think you need to find somebody that's willing, to be honest with you about feedback. I had a former boss that I loved working for, but he was very challenging. Bryan Strawser: I like that from the standpoint that he thought I wasn't so good at things I thought I was good at, so it made me better, right? Bray Wheeler: Sure. Bryan Strawser: He would shy away from... I always went to him for advice when I wasn't working for him anymore. I never really went to him for advice when I was reporting to him. But I would go to him and we'd laugh and we'd kind of talk through something and he would be like, "Okay, well since you asked for my advice let me be honest with you," and then I would just kind of pucker. Then, "I think you're wrong and here's how I think you should think about doing this." So I found that helpful. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Kind of the last question, if you were giving the advice to somebody walking in the room with you're being that kind of honest feedback partner, what... I know you've mentioned kind of be good, be quick, be out. What advice would you give somebody walking into that room or setting up that presentation to go forward, just kind of baseline advice? Bryan Strawser: Well, one is I would repeat that advice, in this conversation you need to be good, be brief, be gone. If they're going to ask questions, they're going to ask. Give them some time to process and do so. Bryan Strawser: The second... Okay, some of this is cultural to your organization too, so take this with the appropriate grain of salt, but if you bring material, the material is an appendix to what you're going to have to say. If the material just reflects what you're saying there's no need for the meeting, you just give it to them. Bryan Strawser: I hated meeting where somebody handed me something and if I read that I knew the whole story and then there was no point in the conversation happening. I know that sounds kind of dickish, but I think it's true. If you don't have a lot of time in your day to do stuff, then that's going to come up like that. Bryan Strawser: I think you really want to think about how you're going to use the time. If you've got 30 minutes you should plan on talking for 10 or 15, and get through the one or two big things that you need to get out of that conversation. Have a leave behind in order to explain that. Bryan Strawser: But really think about the material that you're bringing. If it's a widget, bring a picture of the widget, or bring the widget for them to play with, right, and talk through the what and the why and how is this important. I would think of it in that way. Bryan Strawser: Otherwise, I think we've covered some of the other preparations, right? I mean think about your narrative and the questions you're going to get and that kind of thing. Bray Wheeler: So last question... You know, I promise- Bryan Strawser: The last, last question. Bray Wheeler: ... the last, last question. Does it make a difference in terms of what the topic of the presentation is in terms of how you're setting that up? We've talked a lot about kind of capital and business expense and kind of making the business case, but what if it's something issue related, incident related, reputationally related like it's an actual event or incident that's gone on or something that is going on or set to occur? Bray Wheeler: Does it make a difference in terms of how you're kind of teeing up that conversation or is it really kind of the same principles as making the other case, you just have to... You're customizing that narrative in a different fashion? Bryan Strawser: I think it does change the conversation a little bit in terms of what becomes important. I had a lot of discussions with senior leaders about things that have happened. A lesson that I learned early on is that you should assume they don't know anything about the incident in the context around the incident and the situation around the incident, so you need to be prepared to share what's pertinent and then let them ask questions about that. Bray Wheeler: Is that even if they've been included on communication or- Bryan Strawser: I never trusted anyone else's... To be clear, since you've worked for me, I trusted people's communication on my team because I knew what the command center was publishing. I didn't trust any other person's conversation, because I don't know if they've given them the context that as the crisis leader I thought they needed to know. Bray Wheeler: Sure. Bryan Strawser: So I would want to make sure that they knew and had the context that I thought was important. And you know what? If they know it, they're just going to cut me off, then that's fine. I can deal with that. I'll set my ego aside and take that for what it is and go on, but I think it's tough to put them in a position where they need to make decisions if they don't have what you think is the strategic context of what's going on. Bryan Strawser: A good example of this is... This is the first time that he had done this, but the CEO called me in the morning Hurricane Sandy made landfall. I was in an off-site leadership meeting and he hadn't gotten the update that he was expecting, which was kind of miscommunication on our part, but he started asking some questions about Sandy and the impact and what we didn't know. Bryan Strawser: We didn't know the answer to any of his questions because the thing had just made landfall in the early morning hours and we weren't going to get access to the locations for several more hours, like till after lunchtime or so in Minnesota. Bryan Strawser: So I was just very clear with him about here's where the storm is at and here's kind of the stage we're at and here's when we're going to know something, which is later today, and we may not have a very good picture until tomorrow because there's going to be some areas like... Which it turned out to be true, New York City, New Jersey, and Long Island, where we're probably not going to get access to the stores until tomorrow. Bryan Strawser: We might have done... I think we did an overflight, we did some [inaudible] coverage to get some ideas, but you don't know until you get in and start looking around. Bryan Strawser: I was just very clear with him about like here's the context that I think you need to know right now. Here's where it's at. Here's who we're working with. You made it clear that you want to know more, so we'll communicate with you more frequently about what's going on and you can call me at any time. If he had talked to any other leader in the organization, I don't think he would have gotten that context, but because I was the crisis leader I was able to kind of explain that. Bryan Strawser: So that context in the course of an incident, that's important to know, and I would start off with the assumption that they don't know anything about that. Bray Wheeler: Is there anything in terms of, thinking about the incident, that you want... You kind of talked about offering up kind of call me anytime, here's the next update. Is there anything else that you always like to leave that leader or leaders with kind of in those conversations as you're making the case, like kind of your final thought or offering off that conversation? Is there anything additional that is important to kind of leave with them? Bryan Strawser: I think it depends on the context. The closure I always left leaders with on a crisis was if you have questions that our normal communication isn't answering please call me or call the command center or call my boss to get that context. It's important to me that you have a few views on what's going on. Bryan Strawser: But if I was wrapping up a conversation about something I was asking for, I would probably... I would wrap that up with an additional ask around here's... You know, again I want to reiterate here's why I think this is the right thing to do, and if you have questions then I would love the opportunity to answer those or something like that. Bray Wheeler: Kind of a final summary? Bryan Strawser: Kind of your final summary, your final ask. The sales language is you're supposed to ask three times for the thing, so ask for the sale. That's kind of where I always got to at the end of those. Bray Wheeler: Awesome. Those are all the questions I had. That covered it. Thank you. Bryan Strawser: That was fun, except for not knowing the questions. Bray Wheeler: Yeah, and my final three questions. Bryan Strawser: That's it for this edition of the Managing Uncertainty podcast. Tune in next week for another new episode. Thanks for listening.

In this edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast, Bryghtpath Principal & Chief Executive Bryan Strawser and Consultant Bray Wheeler, take on the new report by the United States Secret Service on targeted school violence. Just published in November 2019, this report analyzes more the forty targeted school violence attacks in the United States and provides a detailed base of facts about school violence, as well as an updated methodology and practical guidelines for prevention. The full report can be downloaded from the Secret Service's National Threat Assessment Center (NTAC) through this link. Related Episodes & Blog Posts Blog Post:  Diving into the Secret Service's Report on School Threat Assessment Teams Episode #30: Threat Management in Educational Institutions Episode #51:  School Threat Assessment Teams Bryghtpath:  Education Industry - Services & Results //static.leadpages.net/leadboxes/current/embed.js Episode Transcript Bryan Strawser: Hello and welcome to the managing uncertainty podcast. This is Bryan Strawser, principal and chief executive here at Bryghtpath. Bray Wheeler: This is Bray Wheeler, consultant here at Bryghtpath. Bryan Strawser: And on this week's episode we're discussing the Secret Services recent report published in November 2019, titled Protecting America's Schools, a United States Secret Service Analysis of Targeted School Violence. This report is available online and we will link it in the show notes. It's a fascinating report that goes deep into 41 incidents of targeted school violence that occurred in K through 12 schools in the United States from 2008 to 2017. And they cite that these findings will help prevention efforts for schools and law enforcement across the country as communities work to develop threat assessment protocols that are geared towards preventing school violence tragedies. Some basic info that I think was shared or some basic info that kind of kicked the report off, and then I want to get to the meat of this, which is really about the warning signs of potential targeted school violence. Bryan Strawser: But of the 41 attacks that are profiled in the report, all but two occurred in public schools. So only two occurred in charter or private schools. 73% of these attacks were carried out in grades nine through 12, so in high schools. Most of those schools that had a targeted violent attack had implemented some type of physical security measure and 66% of them had either full or part-time school resource officers on the campus. So, police officers on the campus. The most commonly used physical security measure was a school walk down procedure, followed by security cameras, followed by alert systems that notified community members via text or phone calls. 61% of the attacks used firearms, 39% use knives. Shocking. The attackers were predominantly male, 83%, and white, 63%. And by shocking, I mean not shocking, because most violent perpetrators are male. 17% of the attackers were female. Their ages range from 12 to 18. The average age was 15 years old. Bray, any initial reaction to that information? Bray Wheeler: Unfortunately that sounds a lot like what we've seen and heard, both in the news and just historically, sort of sense. This kind of came on the national radar via Columbine, Parkland and others in between. The MO holds pretty strong to that kind of description of what's happened and who committed it. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. I would point out the sample size is pretty small. 41 attacks over a nine year time period. I believe, I don't have the report in front of me at the moment, but I believe that the report is inclusive of all targeted school violence attacks and they have a definition for what that means in the report. I don't think these were cherry-picked. I was a little surprised. I expected the number of male offenders to be higher than 83% because it's almost... You look at violent crime, it's almost all male that occurs. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Yeah. That is a little bit kind of noticeable in terms of the number there that it is as low as it. Bryan Strawser: It's a little lower, yeah. So in the reports there were 10 warning signs that were highlighted of things that can be observed prior to a school attack that I think are worth speaking to. The first one is that there is no single profile of a student attacker or a profile for the type of school targeted. Attackers varied in age, gender, race, grade level, academic performance and social characteristics, and the schools varied in size, location and teacher to pupil ratio. The Secret Service's conclusion here is that rather than focusing on a set of traits of characteristics, threat assessment processes should focus instead on gathering information about a student's relevant behaviors, situational factors and circumstances in order to assess risk. Bryan Strawser: I think we knew this. This lines up by the way with the FBI's recent publication of their mass shooting, Active Shooter reports, where the Behavioral Science Unit went into like what are the warning signs, what are the pre attack indicators? And the Bureau's conclusion is essentially there was no single profile that said, "Yes, this is a person who was going to commit targeted violence." It was a combination of things. [crosstalk 00:05:11]. Bray Wheeler: And I think to their point, it's really about the behaviors and noticing people that are around these potential actors, differences in their behaviors and their- Bryan Strawser: It was about their [crosstalk] it was about their behavior. Bray Wheeler: What are they doing? There's a difference, and what is that difference? And does that difference raise any sort of red flag for you? And if it does, being able to communicate that. Bryan Strawser: Take action on that. Number two, on the warning signs, attackers usually had multiple motivations for their attack. The most common, however, involve a grievance with classmates, faculty or staff. Bray Wheeler: Yeah, I mean it's the different motivations and oftentimes that tends to be kind of the thing in their life that starts to set off some of that. I don't want to call it the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back because there's probably a multitude of factors there, but it typically manifests there that they want to take action and that feels probably like the path of least resistance to be able to take an action when they've gone kind of that far in the mindset. Bryan Strawser: Number three is that most attackers used firearms and those firearms were most often acquired from the home. That many attackers were able to gain access to unsecured firearms in their place of residence. Others were also able to gain access to firearms that were in a secured safe. For example, in the Sandy Hook shooting, that individual actually killed his mother in order to gain access to the firearms that were in a safe. I don't know if there was a combination or key or certainly how that worked, but his homicide of her enabled him to gain access to the firearms that were secured in a safe. Bryan Strawser: Knives were used in lesser number of attacks. 39% I believe was the number recited earlier. Threat assessment teams should explore if a student has access to any weapons, particularly weapons that are stored at home. Bray Wheeler: That's almost one of those, you can get into the merits of it and kind of the political conversation of it, but reality is reality. People have those firearms in their homes and that again, that's the path of least resistance to acquire something. High school students aren't probably- Bryan Strawser: They're not walking into a gun shop to buy a gun because they can't. Bray Wheeler: Or is likely to try and get one off the street, based on the profile of these individuals that we're talking about in here. Certainly, gang-related violence and things like that tend to be kind of classified and talked about a little bit different and very much a threat nonetheless. But in terms of these school shootings, that's the path of least resistance to get that. And that's typically where those people have gone. Bryan Strawser: Number four, most attackers had experienced psychological, behavioral or developmental symptoms prior to their act of targeted violence. Bray Wheeler: Yeah, I mean that gets to be it... Again, it's back to some of that's just reality. It's also a sensitive discussion topic. Well, because what constitutes... What, how severe, who's doing the classification? Has there been- Bryan Strawser: What's the actual behavior that's been observed? Bray Wheeler: Right. Has there been anything in terms of action by the state government, the federal government, local government around said behavior? Has the school done anything around different behaviors that the student has exhibited in the past? I mean, it becomes a very key factor, but it's also a piece that can vary slightly and is open to interpretation. It's a little bit subjective in terms of how other people interpret. Bryan Strawser: Totally agree. Yeah, you can't see me nodding, but I've been nodding while Bray's been talking. I think this reinforces the need to make sure that students and parents are aware of what resources are available to them for mental health assistance, social services counseling, substance abuse treatment. To your point, if we do get into a dicey situation here, like what kind of behavior are we really seeing? Is it psychological, is it behavioral, is it developmental, is it an addiction? There's a lot of possibilities for what causes some of these. The point is, how do we make sure that they have access to resources that can help them in this situation. Bryan Strawser: Number five is that half of the attackers had an interest in topics related to violence or as the report says, they displayed unusual or concerning interest in violence and weapons. Bryan Strawser: That feels like a little bit of a stereotype. It made me think about the Columbine, it was the Trench Coat Mafia and dark stories and Dungeons and Dragons or whatever. Forgive me, because I don't remember the particulars now, it's been 20 years. But you had what I thought was kind of this irrational stereotyping of that. I wrote some violent things when I was in is cool because I mean, what did I watch? I liked Star Wars and Star Trek and we were shooting people with phasers and cut them in half of the lightsabers. It's kind of violent. Bray Wheeler: Well, again, it gets back to the little bit of the subjective nature of it. The open to interpretation, the fact that some of these things can be pretty obvious in that segment, but that doesn't necessarily... There's to your point, there's lots of kids participating in those different activities and to varying degrees and what degree is- Bryan Strawser: What's concerning? Bray Wheeler: Concerning- Bryan Strawser: And what's not? Bray Wheeler: ... to what person. Bryan Strawser: Right. Bray Wheeler: So, mom and dad's level of concern may be very different than teacher's concern may be very different than coaches concern may be very different than employer's concerns. Bryan Strawser: So again, we see, for a threat assessment team, it's important to be holistic and look at the various dimensions of this and where does this fit in light of other factors for risk that should be considered as a part of that? Bryan Strawser: Number six. All of the attackers experienced social stressors involving their relationships with their peers and/or romantic partners. That every attacker in this study experienced at least one social stressor most frequently related to bullying. Other stressors include family, academic, or school discipline. Bray Wheeler: Yeah, I don't know what my reaction to this one is necessarily in particular because it, I don't want to make light of those pieces, but we're also talking, if we're talking the average age is 15, which means more likely we're in that middle school, high school range. Bryan Strawser: There's a lot of social stressors. Bray Wheeler: There is a lot of social stressors, and so I think part of, kind of back to the theme that you're touching on, Bryan is, there's a lot of factors at play. We can't just extrapolate one of these things that we've talked about as a case in point for, you're going to be an attacker, we need to watch you. Because I mean, to be fair across the board here, that one in particular for this age range, that's just reality. Bryan Strawser: I agree. Bray Wheeler: They're trying to learn their way in the world and especially in that middle school range where your hormones and your physiological and mental development is all over the place and emotional development. So I think the key piece there is where do those things lie? To what degree are those things being put to the forefront in terms of their behavior or their conversations or their actions, what they're displaying in relation to some of these other things that we talked about? Bryan Strawser: Number seven. Nearly every attacker experienced negative home life factors. That negative home-like factors included parental divorce or separation, drug use or criminal charges amongst family members, or domestic abuse. There's probably more, I think those were some of the major factors. Absence of one parent or the other because of divorce, imprisonment or separation was also a factor here. And I don't know, I mean, I think lots of folks have a negative home life factor to some extent. I was fortunate to have both of my parents growing up and we had a pretty stable nuclear family, but my aunts and uncles were alcoholics and drug addicts and that was all something I was exposed to. So definitely there was some negative... If I personalize this, there was some home negative influence in my broader family. I don't think that's necessarily unusual. Bray Wheeler: No and I think, I mean again, not trying to minimize, but it definitely speaks to, I think the last four that we've talked about are all very related. They're not necessarily unique in terms of grievance with a classmate or something like that. That's a pretty common thing. These all speak to kind of the mental, emotional, environmental factors that a student, the child is kind of surrounded in, whether by their choice or by other people's choosing. And I think that certainly these four definitely play a role, but they're not common, so you have to take them as kind of the collective, which has been a theme we've been beating on here, but... Bryan Strawser: Number eight. Most attackers, so more than a simple majority, were victims of bullying, which was often observed by others. The study found that in many cases the school was aware that the attacker experienced bullying, but the responses to bullying varied. In some cases the school did little to intervene or intervened in a way that increased the bullying of a student. And I think just like the others, this is another one where either you have to take this in light of the whole holistic view of what's going on with this individual, and the combination of those risk factors. It's not just that they were bullied, but it's going to be a combination of this and other factors that will raise the risk in that case. Bray Wheeler: When I think for schools and communities and things like that, getting clear on what bullying is and is not, and not throwing it around loosely, but also taking it seriously in terms of putting in different intervention programs, making sure that kids have access to other resources within the school, making sure that there are programs, processes, things like that, that are in place, that you're not caught off guard. Because I think one of the things that is kind of in here that's not necessarily explicitly stated in the schools and the communities that these are happening in aren't a particular type of school or community that it's happening in it. It varies from very suburban to little bit more rural to- Bryan Strawser: Right. There was no profile [crosstalk] That's right. Bray Wheeler: And that community. So it happens everywhere. So you have to assume this can happen here. One of the cool programs at my kid's school that I thought was kind of cool is, so they have a couple of counselors, and they have different things for different needs of different students. Whether that's kind of anxiety, or they've got some personal stuff going on at home in terms of a sick parent or sibling or something like that. But one of the groups they have is just geared around kids who may need a forum to make some friends or to engage in more friendly kind of interactions with students, regardless of whether or not they're aggressive or things like that. Bray Wheeler: Sometimes those kids are just in a kind of in a funky spot. And so that's an opportunity for them to get together and just talk and hang out and play different games and stuff like that. And fortunately one of my kids is able to experience that and has been having an awesome time, and he's not one that doesn't make friends easy. He's pretty personable, he makes a lot of friends. But in terms of some of the stuff that he's in, it's a good forum for him to get together with different kids and not only help them through, but talk through it. So I mean it's programs like that, that really can help shape and build a community and build a culture within the school too of no tolerance. Bryan Strawser: Right. Bray Wheeler: That other kids are starting to stand up for other kids and kind of self-policing a little bit. Not to put the responsibility on the students, but that is part of it. I mean, if that's the world we want to live in, then got to start somewhere. Bryan Strawser: Number nine. Most attackers had a history of school disciplinary actions, and many shooters had prior contact with law enforcement. I should say, attackers, not shooters. Many attackers had prior contact with law enforcement. Most attackers had a history of receiving a school disciplinary action resulting from a range of inappropriate behavior. And those actions included being suspended, being expelled, or having interactions with law enforcement. Bryan Strawser: I think after Parkland, this doesn't surprise us. In the Parkland incident, that individual had, I believe he had been expelled from school, but he wasn't permitted back on school property, whatever the result was. But law enforcement had 35, 36 interactions with him prior to his attack at the Parkland school. Bray Wheeler: If like we've talked about you're taking these other kind of key findings and the consideration around that, it's probably not surprising that there is disciplinary action within the school. Whether or not that's prompted by that person or as a result of conflicts with people who are bullying that individual or there was grievances between classmates, things like that, the interactions with law enforcement, those can come in any manner of ways in terms of, as we talked about, interest in violent topics or firearms and weapons or just home life interactions with different things that are going on. So, not surprising given some of the other key findings we've talked about that would be a thing that's a finding as well. Bryan Strawser: Right. Number 10, and the last one, all attackers exhibited concerning behavior prior to the attack. Most elicited concern from others and most communicated their intent to attack. Bray Wheeler: And that is probably the biggest one in there. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. It states that the initial indicators of a student in distress or exhibiting concerning behavior were most often observed by peers, school staff, family members or others in the community, some of whom took action and reported, and some did not. And those that did report action, was not always taken on their reports. And I think we know this to be true. We've seen this in coverage of other targeted violence in schools and out of schools, that a lot of times people aren't willing to call and report behavior. And also that when their behavior is reported, law enforcement or other services don't always take the actions that we expect them to take, or sometimes don't even follow through on the report at all. Or in a lot of cases. Bray Wheeler: Or even other organizations. So if a student goes to school and the school blows it off, doesn't take action, thinks a different approach is preferred, I mean, that is the biggest probably piece in here, the biggest lesson learned or takeaway for everybody, is when you do see those things and it does raise those red flags and you're serious enough about it to report it, follow up. Make sure that those things are getting communicated and if you don't feel like it's sufficient, communicate it again to a different audience. Escalate those things. Don't let these things get lost in the shuffle because ultimately, the intent here hopefully for people is to help that individual, intercede before things continue to escalate down a road. Most of the time these are people that are close to the individual, whether that's friends or family members or things like that. They're the ones that are going to probably notice that behavior first and be most concerned about it and probably want to help. Bryan Strawser: Well, I think the first indication right, I mean, or the first motivating factor, I should say, for when something is reported to you that you want to help the individual that's in need. I've never worked in a school, but if I worked in a school and someone came to me with a report of concerning behavior, I don't know that my first reaction would be, my God, we needed to deter the attack. I'd think it's, how do I help this student or someone else that needs help in this case and the deterring and the attack isn't necessarily something conscious that I'm doing. I'm taking action to help somebody that I have this connection to you as a staff or faculty member of a school. Bray Wheeler: Or if it's the organic prevention of that attack, to your point, that you're not first going there, although probably some people do go immediately there. That's probably not the most helpful either, but also speaks to some of the seriousness that people can take with some of these reports. But I think to your point, the need to help that individual in whatever way, whatever shape or form, that's really the initial intent there. And so that should be taken seriously across the board and escalated and pieced together in terms of some of these other factors around that behavior, putting that right context in place so that the appropriate escalation is happening as well. Bryan Strawser: And I think this goes back to kind of to a twofold thing we've been emphasizing throughout the podcast and that is that we believe that school threat assessment teams, this interdisciplinary group that's been trained to evaluate risk and threats and be able to take a coordinated response to help the student and protect the school, are a really effective way of managing these situations. Particularly you're looking at the holistic view of what's going on with that student and all of the possible risk factors that are at play. And the Secret Service recommends this in the report. In fact, last year, I think it was late 2018, they had a report from their National Threat Assessment Center just about how to use threat assessment teams effectively in the K through 12 education environment to mitigate the risk of an attack and to help the student that's in need. Bryan Strawser: But second, I think this also just goes back to the point we had earlier that when suspicious or concerning behavior is reported to the school or to another body entity that's out there, that you have to take these seriously, that you really have to follow up on that report in order to understand what's going on with that student. And having a threat assessment team helps you kind of formalize that process and get multiple folks looking at the situation and providing their own trained view, but also the view from their discipline. You should have folks that have a security and law enforcement background, a counseling background, teachers and faculty that are a part of this, so that you get that well rounded view, holistic view of what's going on with the student. Bray Wheeler: Well, I think it speaks to the other kind of sub team we've been talking through is no one person in that student's life can necessarily see all of these different factors that have been outlined here. Nobody's got that view. Parents can say if they're really on top of it that they absolutely know. I know my son or daughter. Not doubting that, but it's also, you're not walking in their shoes with them all day every day. You've allowed them to go out into the world. They're in the classroom. Bryan Strawser: How they are in the classroom might not be what you see at home? Bray Wheeler: Yep. Because I've gone to plenty of teacher's conferences where my kids are all well behaved and I go, "I want some of that at home." I just signed my daughter's report cards this morning. They're six and eight, so there's not a lot of serious academic stuff going on there yet. They're learning how to read and write and spell and all the basic stuff. But they both had comments about that, like that they're such a sweet, caring kind girl who helps others. And I'm like, "Where is this person?" Because that's not what I have around the house. Bryan Strawser: But, it's right. I mean, we might laugh at that, but the truth is your child might act differently at school than what you're used to seeing in home, good or bad. Bray Wheeler: Or bad. And I think that's the important pieces. As a parent, you should be your child's biggest advocate, but again, recognize that you don't see them everywhere. And so there might be factors, that's not to say that they have the poor discipline or poor behavior or things like that, but things might be happening to them that they're not sharing or they're blowing off or that are building, that they don't know how to communicate. So having that team at school, having engaged parents, or an engaged village, that community of people surrounding that student, when those things surface in terms of some of these findings that the Secret Service has laid out here, kind of bubble up or people report to say, "This is really different. I don't feel good about this with John or Jane." That hose things are, like we've said, addressed and addressed in a way that is holistic and reasonable and escalates as appropriate, to make sure that that student is getting what they need. And by hopefully by consequence, organically solves the problem of really violent behavior later. Bryan Strawser: So we'll link the report in the show notes so you can take a look at that. And I believe we have an episode a few months back on another Secret Service report that's kind of related to this. We'll link that as well. I think that was the one about threat assessment teams and their recommendations. We'll link that up so you can go back and take a look at that episode. Bryan Strawser: That's it for this edition of the Managing Uncertainty podcast. We'll be back next week with another new episode. Thanks for listening.

In this week's edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast, Bryghtpath Principal & Chief Executive Bryan Strawser, along with Consultant Bray Wheeler, discuss when to bring a consultant into your organization to help solve the challenges in front of you - and how to best make use of that time and engagement together. Related Blogs & Episodes Blog Post:  8 things to consider when choosing a business continuity consultant Episode Transcript Speaker 1: Welcome to Managing Uncertainty, a podcast series from the experts at BryghtPath discussing global risk, business continuity, and crisis management. Will you be ready to lead your organization through its critical moment? Bryan Strawser: Hello and welcome to the Managing Uncertainty podcast. It's Bryan Strawser, Principal and Chief Executive here at Bryghtpath. Bray Wheeler: This is Bray Wheeler, consultant here at BryghtPath. Bryan Strawser: And I want to start off today with a story, a story that was relatively pivotal in my thought process in my career, and so we have to go back to about 2009. Bray Wheeler: Way, way back. Bryan Strawser: Way, way back, a decade ago, more than a decade ago when this happened and the story was this. I was brand new in a position at a Fortune 30 organization as the head of global crisis management and business continuity. These two teams had never been under the same leader. They, in fact, a year prior had been in completely different parts of the organization and now they're consolidated and under the global security team, under one leader. I've got new managers leading the teams and we had a relatively good crisis management process that I inherited that Bray was a part of. Bray Wheeler: Thank you. Bryan Strawser: But I had this business continuity function under brand new leadership under me that really wasn't very visible in the organization, but the company was willing to invest in. And my boss goes, my new boss goes, "Bryan, I think the best place for you to start is to bring in a consultant and have them look at the business continuity program here and tell us what we need to do." Bryan Strawser: And then I looked at him and I'm like, "Did you not just hire me, promote me into this job from my old job to do exactly that?" And he goes, "Fair point. Tell me who on the executive team or the board in your first week on the job, having never worked in any detailed level in this field, is going to listen to you on your evaluation of a program you've just been appointed to lead, and tell them with credibility that you're going to be able to move this forward. How's that going to work?" I'm like, "I don't know. I'll figure it out." He's like, "No, you will go hire a consultant." And I walked out of the meeting and I was kind of pissed off. Bray Wheeler: Right. Yeah. Bryan Strawser: I'm like, "You put me in this role. This is what I'm supposed to do." And so I go talk to my girlfriend at the time now, my wife, and I tell her about this conversation and she looks at me, and she's like, "I consulted for 10 years at E&Y. You hired these people to come in and tell them what you already know, right? You're going to bring them in and they're going to look at the whole thing, they're going to use some methodology and they're going to look at the whole thing. And they're going to tell you some things to work on. You're going to embrace all that and you're going to have them present and you're just going to ride those coattails and you're going to get all the money and all the resources and all this stuff that you need." Bryan Strawser: And man, I was just flabbergasted, and that's exactly what I did. I hired one of the big four firms. They came in and did an evaluation, they interviewed a bunch of people, they laid in their experience. They said, "Here are your strengths, here are the opportunities, here are the things you need to do. Here's the roadmap." And we took it to the executive team and the board and I got everything I ever wanted, and I was just totally amazed by that. Bray Wheeler: It worked. Bryan Strawser: It worked. It worked. They did great work. I don't want to disparage that. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: And that's not what this conversation's about it all, but this conversation, what we want to talk about on the podcast today is when do you bring in a consultant? And I don't mean bring somebody in for staff augmentation to help you do something. Bray Wheeler: Right or to just, hey, here's my plan. Just read it back to them. There's more to- Bryan Strawser: Right. Bray Wheeler: To that. Bryan Strawser: So I want to talk about when you bring in a consultant and I would love, just as you listen to this episode, or read the transcript online, I would love to hear from you about when this has worked for you. Like how have you been able to leverage this? The topic that we're talking about. When do you bring somebody in to help you like this? Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Bryan Strawser: Help you solve a problem, help you build a strategy, help you benchmark what's going on. Not somebody to just fill a hole on the team because you can't hire somebody. Bray Wheeler: Or to just assess. Bryan Strawser: Or just assess. Bray Wheeler: What you've already been doing. Bryan Strawser: One thing that we do a lot, we're in the middle of doing this now for a client, is we do spend a lot of time looking at ... we do spend a number of engagements where we're brought in to look at what a company has and tell them, "Here's where your strengths and opportunities are. Here are our recommendations to improve." We're doing this right now for a client where we've evaluated the state of their program three times every two years. Bryan Strawser: We've done this to really help them understand where they're maturing and where they're not, and where their opportunities lie. But I think a lot of the times we're brought in as our first foot in the door to help a company understand where they're at and what they need to do because they don't know. They don't have the internal leadership to be able to pull that off. Bray Wheeler: Or expertise yet. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. I said leadership, that's what I mean. They don't have the leadership and expertise to be able to do that yet. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Bryan Strawser: They need that kind of guidance. We've done this ... the story that I think comes to mind is we've clients here in the Twin Cities that we did this for them in late 2015 where there are things they did really well from a crisis perspective, but they realized they didn't really have a business continuity program, and some things had come to their attention that they did need to have such a program. Bryan Strawser: And that was our work, that we came in and evaluated the state of affairs. We interviewed the executives, we interviewed stakeholders, we looked over tons of documentation, and we helped them understand what they had, and what they didn't, and where the points of confusion or opportunity were. And then here's a number of recommendations for you to look at in terms of implementing. And not only that, but here's where you stand in relation to other companies in your industry. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Bryan Strawser: To our knowledge. Bray Wheeler: That's huge, about where you're at. Bryan Strawser: And I think the fair discussion about do you really want to be at the very top of this list or is it okay to be in the top third or in the middle? What's the right investment based upon your business model, your risks and threats? Bray Wheeler: We, even thinking just from a maturity standpoint, where's an acceptable level to get to, to fulfill the immediate needs? That more than a stop-gap, but knowing you can't ... you're not going to go from zero to 60. You're going to go from having nothing to industry benchmark overnight. That's ... unless you threw all the company resources at that, that's probably not realistic. So what does that maturity model look like? Bray Wheeler: I think the other piece too is, with bringing in consultants, not just to affirm, or assess, or things like that, really there's an opportunity, and I think you touched on it a little bit as that fresh set of eyes to identify any blind spots that are in there. So there might be things that these functions, and these capabilities, and these teams are doing incredibly well, and they're incredibly popular, and they're gaining momentum, and everybody knows who they are, and how to engage them. But there might be little things in terms of, hey, we're missing how to appropriately escalate this up, or we stumble when we need to connect to another kind of response function within the organization, or we have competing response functions for different areas of expertise. How do we engage and blend those? What don't we know from our partners? Bray Wheeler: People are a little bit more forthcoming with an independent person than they are with sharing that directly with the team in some cases. And so it's nice to be able to get ... address blind spots, address those gaps, opportunities like you talked about, but also reinforce here's what you're doing well, here's what people are really excited about as well. You're doing really well. Bryan Strawser: Because I think most companies just like ... I always am wired to, this is how I was trained, is all that stuff I do well is fine, but can we talk about the things that we're doing well? Bray Wheeler: We're going to fix the problem. Bryan Strawser: But we need to understand both, right? Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: You need to understand that these 25 things that you're doing today, these are awesome, keep doing these things, but here are areas where you're not so good, and here's areas where just, they're bad, or they're nonexistent and how do we continue to push those things forward I think really matters. Bray Wheeler: Bryan, what would you say when organizations are thinking about bringing a consultant in? What are the top two, three, four things that they should be thinking about or considering as they're exploring bringing in somebody from the outside? Is there anything ... key things to do? Bryan Strawser: Well, I think there's a couple of things to consider. I do think that, and I think most senior executives get this because they've been down the consulting road before, but I do believe that one of the advantages of bringing somebody in to look at a problem or an area of opportunity for you, is particularly when you get into more niche consulting, like the work that we do here at Bryghtpath. There are very few situations that you're going to throw at us even if you're calling us in the middle of a critical moment, that we haven't already seen, that we haven't already dealt with and dealt with that numerous times. And I don't want to be, in the particular field we're in, that can sound a little callous sometimes. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: But we've led personally through active shooter situations, we've dealt with numerous fatalities with our clients and there's a lot of things that are really rare in people's experiences, but we do this work all the time. Bray Wheeler: Well even just awareness to incidents that are occurring that we're not even a part of, just right kind of totally- Bryan Strawser: Right. Industry knowledge within the niche space. That's what we're supposed to be looking at. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: That's part of our DNA of what we're doing is to look at that stuff. So even if it's not direct. Bray Wheeler: Right. Right. Agreed. Bryan Strawser: There's at least probably indirect connectivity that we have. Bray Wheeler: Right. But I think beyond that, when you're considering who to bring in, I think there's a number of questions to consider and we have a blog post about eight things to consider when choosing a business continuity consultant we'll link in the show notes so you can read the full article. But I think you want to look at the organizational capability of the company, of the consulting firm that you're looking at. I think you want to look at their previous experience. I think if anything you're doing is regulated, I think you want to make sure you have a consultant that has experience in the industry and regulations in question. We have a certain amount of depth in healthcare and in energy, in financial services, all of which are regulated here in the United States that if you don't have experience in those areas then they're going to have to play catch up to understand what those requirements are that are in place for them to dig through. I think those are important things to consider. A couple of important things to consider. Bray Wheeler: And I think the capability thing, I think an honest consulting firm is going to be upfront about this when talking about their capabilities and whether or not they can handle the work, and I think it's fair if you're dealing with a smaller niche organization like ours and you're a Fortune 10 organization, you should ask about can we handle the work, the scope, and scale of what's there. I know we were approached by a company this year. One of the Fortune 10 was on my mind. It was a member of the Fortune 10 and it was a little bit ... it was certainly an area that we had knowledge in. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bray Wheeler: But it was something they needed to move really quickly on. It was something that had international attention. It was something that had happened and they wanted to go back and look at all of the circumstances around what happened and give them quickly to their board. Here's what went well, here's what didn't go well, here's the areas of opportunity. Bray Wheeler: And I listened. They called us, which I was flattered by. It was somebody there that I knew and had a many year-long relationships with and I heard him out and, and my answer was, "Look, we could do this work, but I think you're better suited going to who I think are the industry leaders for this particular niche that have the capabilities and the stature to deal with what you're dealing with." And I made two recommendations to him and they ultimately went with one of those, and it was a better fit for them. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bray Wheeler: I would have loved the work. Right? Bryan Strawser: Right. Bray Wheeler: It was going to be ... it was interesting. It was going to pay well. It was a high profile. It would have been great for us. We were not the best fit for that. And so I think you want a consultant that's going, to be honest with you about their ability to manage the work. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. And you should expect that too because if, back to the original premise that we started with, if you're looking for somebody to walk in and credibly say to your leadership and your board that this is the right approach that you want to take, or you're on the right track, here's some recommendations to improve that, if there's anything suspicious about that, that firm, or their ability to complete the work, you were better off probably making the case yourself. Because at the end of the day you're going to be held accountable to it. Bryan Strawser: And I think to that point, hearing out those consultants especially, we tend to do it quite a bit to refer to where the expertise lies in some cases, hear those consultants out because they're affirming to you where you should go. Bray Wheeler: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bryan Strawser: And also increases hopefully their credibility with you too for other issues that fit well for them that they've kind of helped make that case too. Bray Wheeler: No, I think those are all great points and certainly do your due diligence into a potential consultant to understand the pros and cons and- Bryan Strawser: Because bigger is not always better either. Bray Wheeler: Bigger's not always better. Bryan Strawser: Not that they don't do good work, but bigger's not, it's just not always better. Yeah? Bray Wheeler: Yeah. I think you want to look around. There's a certain cachet involved in, I think hiring Deloitte, or E&Y, or PWC, or McKinsey, or Bain, or Boston Consulting around something. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bray Wheeler: I'm not convinced in areas that they do better work than we do, for example, but if you need 25 people thrown at something, that's not going to be us. You're going to want to go to one of them to pull that off. But not many people are calling me, calling us, looking to throw 25 people. Bryan Strawser: Right. Bray Wheeler: At a problem either. But I think these are all good things to think about when looking to hire a consultant. When you're evaluating who to go with. I really think the harder decision, to go back to my original story, is when to bring someone in. When do you need that kind of help? I think we mentioned we get a lot of assessment work as our initial points of helping somebody through something, and that usually leads to some work to implement those recommendations. But if you really want a self sustaining process, you've got to build side by side with this capability within the business to run those capabilities. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Capability to run capabilities, capabilities. That's our favorite word. Bray Wheeler: An area we didn't touch on, we've talked about assessments and getting things started, but I think another reason we get brought into situations, is a company is in the critical moment. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bray Wheeler: They've had something happen. This just happened last week. We had, fortunately, a client that we had an existing relationship with, so we understood the organization. They called and said, "Hey, we had a traffic fatality with our business." It wasn't one of their individuals, but one of their drivers had a hit and killed someone in a traffic accident. There was no fault. It was a traffic accident, but there were a number of factors around that where they needed help and we were able to work through that with them. I think that doesn't happen all that often. Maybe it's 10% of what we deal within the course of the year, but companies that haven't thought through that, haven't thought about how do we react in the critical moment. What do we say? Who do we say it to? How do we manage the human resources aspects of that? Bray Wheeler: We get a number of calls in the door around that. Bryan Strawser: One, and that engagement might vary on level of maturity, but I think there still is value in bringing somebody from the outside in, because one, if you're a smaller capability within the organization, bringing somebody like us in surges that ability to support, and coordinate, and help facilitate, or help you facilitate what's going on. If you're a bigger organization, that may also be true. It may provide guidance, may provide a different perspective on the approach that the organization is taking, what we've seen work well, what hasn't worked well, things like that. Bryan Strawser: I think the other piece to that is often a little bit overlooked, and I think we've talked about this in past podcasts a little bit too, is thinking about that situation and the nature of this client's business with the traffic accident and the driver that's ... it's central, there's an emotional impact that takes place. Bryan Strawser: There's an emotional kind of response, a human response to what's going on. I want to say everybody's sitting around the office crying and not doing anything or breaking things or whatever the case is. But there are certain instances, especially ones that are ingrained in your operations, or the core of your business, when something happens, not everybody's thinking straight. And that's real, that's human, that's a real thing that happens. And so to be able to bring in a consultant to help facilitate through that doesn't necessarily have the emotional attachment. Bray Wheeler: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bryan Strawser: The lack of a better word, and not sound callous again, but the human known factor between what's going on helps steer, guide that process through while the company and the people are personally dealing with it and trying to move the operation forward. That consultant can really be beneficial to just helping guide that. Bray Wheeler: And I see that happening in two ways. One is what you described, it's ... you're coming in and you're looking at a problem, or a reorganization, or whatever the underlying question is and, you have no emotion as a consultant you have no emotional or political attachment to what this is. So I think you're able to provide more direct feedback about what's going on. Bray Wheeler: I know I certainly have felt unleashed on my opinions as a consultant. Whereas when I was in-house at a company for 21 years, I brought all of the restrictions, and political thoughts, and crap that went through my head and now I don't have as much of that. I can really look at the problem and give my best advice based on my experience. But also think the emotional piece comes in a second way, and that is when you're in the critical moment, you're not emotionally attached to what's going on. Bray Wheeler: And I'm not saying that you're not impacted because we're all impacted when other individuals, whether we know them or not, are hurt, or killed, or have had some tragedy that they've had to experience. But we've dealt with this before, so we come in with a different mindset, I think about working through this. Bryan Strawser: We're not in the basement. Bray Wheeler: We're not in the basement as the Harvard NPLI folks say. We're really talking, helping the company work through this. I know there was a fatality, we helped a business with an about a year, well almost a year and a half ago now, that was one of those 7:00 AM I'm walking in the door to the office phone calls from a former colleague and they had an industrial accident that had taken the life of one of their employees. And I have known him for two decades. He's imminently capable of managing the situation. He didn't need us for that. He said, "I need you to get on my crisis calls with the execs and I need you to help them understand how to manage this because they're just hearing this from me and everybody else is a little bit of a hot mess." And it was like 7 in the morning. By noon they were cool. They didn't need us anymore. They got through the ... but they weren't thinking through the situation. Bryan Strawser: Right. Bray Wheeler: They were just reacting once. Bryan Strawser: Well, and sometimes it's ... you almost need that other voice in the room so that you can play good cop, you can play bad cop. Bray Wheeler: That's right. Bryan Strawser: You can play an independent voice. So you're not ... that crisis leader isn't the one on the hook for any fallout from, "Hey I got to say something that might be pretty callous," and get the response and then be discredited from any of the other incidents going forward, or in that role, or things like that. Bringing in a consultant sometimes helps. We can be the ones to say it. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Bryan Strawser: And- Bray Wheeler: We'll take the hit. Bryan Strawser: We'll take the hit. Bray Wheeler: That's okay. Bryan Strawser: That's- Bray Wheeler: I think too, and this, I think this is along the same lines is what you just described. Sometimes they know what the right thing is to do. Actually I would say often they know what the right thing is to do. They need the reassurance that what ... the thing that they want to do is the right thing to do. Bryan Strawser: It's hard to get there. Bray Wheeler: Yeah I remember on that particular call, the situation we're just talking about with the industrial accident, I think everybody knew that the right thing to do was to close the place down. Close down, it was a warehouse, industrial warehouse. Close the thing down. Because for one, the loading dock was a scene that was being managed by law enforcement, and the medical examiner, and OSHA, and all of that kind of thing. Bray Wheeler: But you know, I think getting folks together, and debriefing them, and giving them a chance to talk, and then sending them home for the day, paying them for the shift, send them home, come back tomorrow, have counselors on-site, do the normal, the right response. Bryan Strawser: Right. Bray Wheeler: But I think ... and I think they all knew that, but they needed the reinforcement to say- Bryan Strawser: That is the right- Bray Wheeler: What do you want to do about the workers that are there today? Do we all agree the right thing to do is to send them home? Pay them for the time. I'm not sure what your policies are, but let's pretend we can do what we want. Can we send them home for the day and pay them for the shift? And if they want to hang out in the lounge, and grieve, and talk to each other, I would accommodate that. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. Bray Wheeler: But I think ... do we all think that's the right thing to do? And they were all like, "Yeah, we just didn't ... we just weren't sure." I think the right thing to do is let folks go home. Bryan Strawser: Right? Bray Wheeler: Let them hang out. If they want to hang out for a while, which some of them did I'm sure, cool. If that's what they want. But I would let them go home and let's deal with ... let's manage ... we've got stuff to do here at the warehouse, and tomorrow we can reopen, and they can have a chance to do some group debriefing with a professional or meet one on one with someone, and take advantage of their benefits under their EAP plan. And let's move forward. Bryan Strawser: It buys you, some of us, I don't want to make this inconsiderate, but it gives you that time as leaders, as response functions, to collect your own thoughts, get yourself a little bit squared away, making sure that the next steps you're doing for the team are the right steps to do as well. Bryan Strawser: To your point, the next day bringing in counselors, going to that next step and making sure that "Hey, have we done everything that we can possibly do for them coming in the door tomorrow?" What is our expectation of them tomorrow? That's a whole nother set of questions that you have to be able to get to that you're not going to get to if you still have people working and doing those kinds of things. So not to do down the rabbit hole on that. But that's really the value that bringing in a third party or having a third party readily available for your organization, allows you to affirm what it is that you think is the right thing to do, gives you that support in order to make sure that your response is on par with what's going on, is aligned with what it is that you want as values or objectives within your organization. Bryan Strawser: There's just a lot of different things and a lot of different benefits that can come about when you bring in a consultant. Bray Wheeler: Mm-hmm (affirmative). There's a lot of expertise I think to summarize. The time to do this is when you have a problem to solve or you're in the critical moment and you need someone or an organization that can help you get through the situation because you need assistance. Because you need expert assistance from folks that have done this before and have likely experienced close to the various circumstances that you're confronted with. Bryan Strawser: And if you don't ... if you haven't had that thought or that conversation internally, having it right now isn't the worst thing either to say, "Hey, is this a step we're going to take should we get into a situation like this? One of the levers we can pull as an organization and that we've decided to pull is we're bringing a consultant in." Bray Wheeler: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bryan Strawser: Now, whether you line up that consultant in advance, or have conversations, or whatever, just even having that conversation of, "Hey, this is the lever we have the option to pull and is it something we're going to make the decision pull right away or in the moment?" Bray Wheeler: That's it for this edition of the Managing Uncertainty podcast. We'll be back next week with another episode. Thanks for listening.

In this week's edition of the BryghtCast Weekly Podcast, Bray Wheeler, Consultant, and Bryan Strawser, Principal and Chief Executive at Bryghtpath discuss three recent events and their potential impact on private sector organizations.   Topics discussed include: NY Times:  Leaders death will damage ISIS but not destroy it War on the Rocks:  Don't kill the Caliph! The Islamic State and the pitfalls of leadership decapitation BBC:  Johnson/EU agree to Brexit extension NBC News:  California wildfires force nearly 200,000 to evacuate NY Times:  Live update on California wildfires CalFire:  Live incident map Episode Transcript Bray Wheeler: Hello, and welcome to this week's episode of BryghtCast for the week of October 28th, 2019. I'm Bray Wheeler, consultant here at Bryghtpath. Bryan Strawser: And it's Bryan Strawser, principal and chief executive here at Bryghtpath. Bray Wheeler: So, this week, we have a few topics to talk about, the one being probably the most dominance in the news is the death of ISIS leader Al Baghdadi. Bryan Strawser: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. [crosstalk 00:00:46]. Bray Wheeler: Abu Bakr. He is no longer with us, according to the US government. Over the weekend, the US conducted a raid on the compound that they located him at and he was... According to reports, self-detonated a suicide vest after he was cornered by US special forces. Bryan Strawser: In a tunnel. In a dead-end tunnel. Bray Wheeler: In a dead-end tunnel, apparently. Unfortunately, it sounds like he took three of his children with him. However, the US was able to capture a lot of Intel out of that rate, it sounds like, according to the president who gave kind of an at-length kind of update on what had transpired over the weekend, revealing probably a little bit too much information. But needless to say, kind of around the death of ISIS's leader, there is no clear replacement. Sounds like we've also struck a couple of other targets, one being the heir apparent and the other being their primary spokesperson. Bryan Strawser: Both of whom were apparently killed this morning, US time. Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bryan Strawser: In separate actions. I think one of those I saw was perhaps done by Kurdish forces with US special operations' assistance. Definitely wound appears to have been a special operation by US military forces. I mean, this is a huge deal. I know there's been some that have been equating this to the Bin Laden raid, and I would not put it on that level because Bin Laden was someone who everyone knew in the world and was responsible for thousands of deaths here in the United States. And I don't want to downplay the role of the ISIS leader, but I don't think most people outside of this particular world that we live in knew who al-Baghdadi was. They probably just knew that there was a leader for ISIS. Bryan Strawser: I remember when this Saturday evening, not long before I was going to bed in the 9:00, 10:00 range, I was looking at Twitter and I saw the first tweet from someone claiming that we had captured al-Baghdadi, which would have been a fascinating intelligence grab, but I don't think this mission was aimed at capturing al-Baghdadi any more than the Neptune Spear operation was aimed to capture Osama bin Laden. The intent was to kill him as a legitimate target of the United States government, but it quickly broke out to, within a few hours, I think even credible folks who have been studying ISIS and the Syria issues for quite some time were coming around to it appears that we have killed al-Baghdadi. of course, there was no official confirmation until the president spoke at about 9:15 Eastern on Sunday morning from that. Bryan Strawser: There's a number of interesting things here we should unpack related to this, I think, briefly. The president stated that we had obtained information and intelligence from a number of sources and that we had the cooperation of a number of countries, and he specifically mentions Syria, Turkey, the Russians, and the Kurds as cooperating or not interfering with the operation during his press conference, then he answered several questions around that as well. Bray Wheeler: Yep. And I think some of the big reveals that kind of caused some consternation with security intelligence folks was, one, the question of airspace and our use of Russian airspace, Syrian airspace, Turkish airspace, which causes some apprehension in terms of revealing probably a little bit too much around how we're able to kind of get in, get out a little bit of how that process works. Bray Wheeler: I think that unfortunately... His press conference's announcement, unfortunately, revealed kind of too much in terms of operational details that potentially could pose some real significant challenges for kind of future operations, engagements. Certainly, part of that is to kind of protect publicly some of our cooperating partners here in the international community to have them save face a little bit. I think the president took a different approach of just trying to praise those people and kind of thank them for their cooperation, but unfortunately, that's not always very helpful. And so right now, I think it's kind of a mixed bag. Certainly, Bryan, to your point, his death is pretty prominent in terms of ISIS and kind of their future direction. Does it kind of 100% solve the ISIS problem? No, but it certainly leaves them kind of without a captain at the moment, without somewhat of a direction. And kind of to your point, the intent of probably not capturing him is to the benefit of kind of ripple effects of additional attacks and things like that. Certainly, if you know we had apprehended them and were holding him, there probably would've been- Bryan Strawser: Reprisals. Bray Wheeler: Reprisals pretty immediately. Bryan Strawser: There's going to be reprisals anyway, of course. No, I think you're right. I think it's important to look at this in the context of the broader fight on counter-terrorism. One of the things about this particular organization, ISIS as opposed to Al-Qaida is Al-Qaida was a little more decentralized than the way ISIS has operated. Al-Baghdadi has led ISIS since about 2010 or so if I remember correctly. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Bryan Strawser: There was no real clear successor, although there was a potential heir apparent, a number three, I believe it was, that is who we're claiming was killed this morning. And they had a public spokesperson who was also killed this morning. I think it's likely, although we'll probably never know, that these raids today were driven by intelligence that was captured yesterday. That's kind of a hallmark of modern-day US special forces operations in terms of immediately exploiting intelligence captured from the scene and then just increasing the OPTEMPO of raids that go on from there. Bryan Strawser: I do think it's worth mentioning briefly that there has been some counter-argument around targeting al-Baghdadi. There's an article that we'll link in the show notes from War on the Rocks, the War on the Rocks blog and website, where pretty strong argument not to decapitate ISIS because al-Baghdadi, although clearly involved in the deaths of many US citizens and others, didn't appear to be an overly competent leader for ISIS. They lost all of their territories during the last two years, two and a half years. Bray Wheeler: After pretty strong aggressive gains that were very impressive by kind of any modern standard for a non-governmental military force. Bryan Strawser: Right. I think also worth pointing out here that one other thing that ISIS had going forward it as a terrorist movements, there's a significant amount of ISIS propaganda in teaching that is available on sites like YouTube and other more Jihadi-focused social media channels that would censor that kind of content, and you've had a number of attackers, even here in the United States, who have executed the lone actor attacks and then credited ISIS or credited al-Baghdadi or credited "I learned the tactics and techniques and tools through the ISIS magazine, online magazine" or through these online lectures. Bryan Strawser: So, even without a leader in place, the propaganda lives on, and these attacks, even the ones here in the US, have been... They haven't been centrally commanded and controlled. ISIS just takes credit for it after the details come out that this person who was motivated by ISIS or was trained through ISIS online material. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. ISIS has been pretty quick to kind of claim responsibilities for a lot of different things. Certainly, if the attacker or kind of intelligence or investigative kind of evidence after the fact suggests that they were on ISIS' websites or kind of any mention of them, they're quick to say, "Hey. Yep, we're responsible for that." ISIS is certainly much more tech and social media, and their presence online is much stronger than Al-Qaida's ever was and still is. ISIS, that's kind of one of their hallmarks is how savvy they are on that front. Bray Wheeler: And so certainly losing a couple of their head guys plus spokesman certainly, organizationally, paints a different kind of picture for them, directionally. But in terms of their presence online, it doesn't necessarily change much. I think the one thing too that is kind of significant here too and around that is the... And you kind of touched on this earlier, kind of the difference in kind of recognition of al-Baghdadi compared to Osama bin Laden is his... al-Baghdadi's death is much more significant for the Middle East region than it is, say, in the US or in Europe. He was responsible for several atrocities in that region. And so, most famously, the Jordan fighter pilot who was burned alive in a steel cage and then plastered kind of across the world, awful, awful video. Awful, awful event. But those are the kinds of things that he's been responsible for. Bray Wheeler: So, in terms of kind of a... The first kind of a sigh of relief for the breadth of... I don't want to say joy, but appreciation for what's happening is really in the Middle East region, and the US and Europe are kind of secondary. Now, doesn't mean that that's not going to change or we haven't experienced some of that stuff, San Bernardino kind of being the most probably famous one for folks with an ISIS affiliation to it, but- [ Bryan Strawser: I remember that one well. Bray Wheeler: For the region, his death certainly is appreciated, I think, from several different fronts kind of across that area. Bryan Strawser: So, I think there's a couple of geopolitical implications here. One is that Bray's right. I mean, this is going to have a big impact on the Middle East. There's probably going to be a period of time here where ISIS is going to be in some disarray, at least in terms of their ability to capture land and hold land or hold cities or towns. That was really kind of driven by al-Baghdadi. I think that will be seriously degraded, but I think we should keep in mind that we're probably going to see another day or two of decapitation strikes as the United States and its allies who exploit intel that was gained during the raid. Bryan Strawser: And so I think we'll see more impacts in the days to come or maybe we won't hear about them, but they will happen. But even in doing so, it's not going to stop the lone actor or the decentralized group that's affiliated with ISIS from carrying out attacks. I saw the French National Police went on alert today about potential reprisal attacks in France. That might just be precautionary. That might be because they know something or something was gained. Bray Wheeler: Yeah, or they've been fought... They'd been tracking several cases where they have known cells that are there that they're just preparing for those to activate. Paris and Belgium have also kind of been hit pretty hard from an ISIS standpoint. So, it's not surprising that those, in particular, are kind of standing up their precautionary measures and their alertness levels. Bray Wheeler: So, on that front, so transitioning a little bit too... I don't know if it's happier news or different news is the EU has agreed to extend the Brexit deadline for the United Kingdom moving it to January 31st of 2020. So, they reached that deal here kind of in the last 24 hours. It certainly is a good thing in terms of allowing for a little bit more time to hopefully negotiate an exit that is a little bit cleaner for the United Kingdom and the EU. It throws a little bit of a wrench into Prime Minister Boris Johnson's plans for trying to get the deadline hard and fast and kind of force some of the deals, but really kind of, one, it extends the conversation and kind of the negotiation longer, but at the same time opens up more room for potential kind of exit with a plan. Bray Wheeler: So, as we've talked about last week, the UK kind of approved kind of initially the deal that was struck, but didn't approve kind of the pace at which that was going to be negotiated. So, this certainly gives that buffer of, hey, there's kind of an agreement around the deal. Now, there's a little bit of time to kind of work through that. The other piece of it is the kind of election that Prime Minister Johnson has called for in December will more than likely take place, and the results of that will probably impact the way that the negotiations go. So, there'll probably be a little bit of talk over the next month and a half, but those will probably be more aggressive after the results of that election are kind of held. And right now- Bryan Strawser: Who knows how it's going to go? Bray Wheeler: Who knows how that's going to go? Bryan Strawser: This kind of reminds me of being involved in Minnesota politics and watching the every other year biennium where we try to negotiate a state budget in a divided government because we've had divided government here for almost seven years where, currently, the Republicans control one house, the Democrats control another, and the governor is a Democrat. And you can set whatever deadlines you want. The real action is when the session ends, and now you're screwed because the government's going to shut down if you don't pass a budget. And they tried that this year with all kinds of budget dates and it just didn't... It didn't get anywhere. There was a deal at the end after the session ended. Bryan Strawser: So, I think the extension is probably helpful for the UK. I don't know if that necessarily helps Boris Johnson in the planned December general election, but at least now they're not leaving without a framework in place, which I don't know would have gone well in a number of categories. So, I don't know. I suspect this will be the last extension that the EU is going to be willing to work on, or maybe the EU is kind of like that parable of the guy that's got the death sentence over his head and he tells the King that he's going to teach his horse to talk and the King gives him two years to do it or whatever. And someone's like, "Why did you do that?" And the horse can't talk. And he goes, "Yeah, but a lot can happen in two years. There could be a new King. The horse could talk." Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: Things can happen. There might be a revolution. So, I don't... I mean, I think ultimately, this is probably good. A negotiated exit is a better path. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Bryan Strawser: They got a long way to go. Bray Wheeler: Well, I think that's always been the EU's preferences is to... As long as the UK is giving some semblance of, "Hey, we're clearly going down this road, but we're trying to do it in a somewhat reasonable fashion," the EU is probably going to go along with that to the point where if this election turns back towards Johnson and there's a bunch of hard-line stances, to your point, this will be the EU's last kind of extension of that deadline. I think it's a little... It's not necessarily that Johnson is removed from office, but I think the manner in which that kind of election goes will give the EU a little bit of a greater sense of what the UK kind of public wants to happen because right now, there's a little bit of mixed message there too. And so I think once that becomes a little bit clearer and kind of a statement, the EU will probably flex or not kind of one way or the other depending on the outcome of that. Bray Wheeler: The final topic that we have this week that's also been kind of breaking over the weekend and has been occurring here for the last several weeks has been the wildfires in California. Those are kind of continuing to kind of spread and move kind of throughout the states in different areas. Wine Country has been impacted. Los Angeles is now somewhat under threat from all these wildfires. PG&E and other utility companies have been kind of rationing power with rolling blackouts and shutting off power to kind of help prevent the spread of wildfire and damage to infrastructure and things like that. But right now, it's kind of a little bit of a mess in California with the different wildfires and kind of the high winds. There's been reported gusts of 80 miles per hour. Certainly not... Weather is not helping at the moment. So, it's kind of a little bit of a chaotic situation in California just from a "Are we evacuating? Are we not evacuating? Is it moving towards us? Is it now moving away from us?" Things like that. So, throughout the kind of significant portions of the state. Bryan Strawser: We know from wildfire experience and we've been involved in several in multiple states. High wind complicates the issue because it moves the fire faster, sometimes faster than you can build real firebreaks to contain this fire. I mean, California has got a number of challenges kind of intersecting here. California's been resistant to clearing brush that leads to strong fire conditions. PG&E has a lot of outdated infrastructure. They have tried stopping, cutting the power to broad swaths of the state in order to prevent wildfires. That's proven unsuccessful so far. Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bryan Strawser: At least unsuccessful in that we throw are having wildfires. It may have prevented additional wildfires. I guess I'm not close enough to know that, but that raised a challenge for citizens in the state because hundreds of thousands of people were losing power in some of these shutoffs, including major urban areas. So, there's... California's got a number of challenges around this right now, but on the ground right now, it's a massive firefighting operation being led by the Cal Fire folks with a lot of mutual aid from lots of different places. Bray Wheeler: And I think kind of impact-wise two organizations, certainly in California and certainly in those impacted regions, it's having likely devastating consequences to operations just from losing facilities and infrastructure and roadways and things like that. But if you are kind of in a periphery of these wildfires or working with partner organizations or you have satellite offices or other facilities, HQ facilities, etc. kind of in those regions, it's very much a time to start preparing for kind of closure of those facilities, evacuation, employee assistance funds, things like that for those areas. So, if those are things that you're not doing right now, those should be things that you are considering. If you're not in an impacted zone in California, probably best to dust off whatever those plans are and at least look at them and start thinking about what those are in addition to just monitoring kind of heavily what's going on there. Bray Wheeler: If you have... You're a big retailer and you have different stores there or you're a financial institution with different branches, you should be watching. And if you're a smaller organization, it's definitely... Especially with kind of partner organizations, starting to think about what your alternatives are to the source material or things like that in the interim. Bryan Strawser: Yeah, I think... And don't forget... I mean, Bray's got great advice on the wildfire. Don't forget that in the wildfire, one of your biggest impacts as a business is going to be to your team, and really just think about how to communicate what's going on. Make sure they have information. Make sure as the employer, you're giving them time to prepare and evacuate and that you're cognizant of the fact that when the fire's over, your team and their family and friends could be heavily impacted. And be sympathetic as an employer as you head into that in terms of time off and helping them kind of work through these situations. Bray Wheeler: Yep. Well, that is it for this week's edition of BryghtCast. Again, join us next week for our next weekly edition. Have a great week. Thank you.  

Welcome to the first episode of BryghtCast Weekly, our new podcast, for the week of October 21st, 2019. Prior to today, this podcast had been published as a part of our long-running Managing Uncertainty Podcast, but now we're spinning this off into its own podcast. We explain our thinking a little more deeply in the episode, so have a listen. Topics discussed on today's podcast include: WSJ: NBA Arenas prepare for Hong Kong protests WSJ: US troops withdrawing from Syria draw scorn International Elections:  Canada, Israel The Conversation: Chile protests escalate as widespread dissatisfaction shakes foundations of country's economic success story Leadership vacancies at the US Department of Homeland Security Episode Transcript Bray Wheeler: Hi. Welcome to this week's episode of BryghtCast for the week of October 21st, 2019. Before we get started, I mean everyone may have noticed there was some new music. There is some potentially new graphics up for this podcast. We have elected to spin this off a little bit from the Managing Uncertainty podcast where it has lived since we've started doing this into its own podcast. We've gotten some overwhelming support from folks and listeners, so we've decided to break that apart. So over the next few weeks, you'll see the new graphic, you'll see this split off. There may be some additional things that we're kicking around to include with this podcast. So before we jump in... Bryan Strawser: So this is Bryan Strawser here at Bryghtpath. I think one of the important things to point out here is really two fold. This is now going to be its own podcast. So if you're listening to this on the Managing Uncertainty podcast, this is the last episode we'll be posting to this channel, this subscription of the BryghtCast. We'll continue with what you're used to on Managing Uncertainty, which is this deeper 15 to 30 minute dive into a particular topic related to crisis management, business continuity risk, organizational resilience. Bryan Strawser: You'll want to subscribe to BryghtCast Weekly, which will be the new podcast name in order to continue to receive BryghtCast, and that should be up in the next day or so, should be available on iTunes and Stitcher and Google play and all the wonderful places where you can find podcasts. We'll remind you of this a few times in the coming weeks as well. But with that... Bray Wheeler: Yeah, we're super excited. Bryan Strawser: Welcome to BryghtCast Weekly. We've got a handful of topics I think that Bray's going to kick us off on. Bray Wheeler: Again, this is Bray Wheeler consultant here at Bryghtpath and so for the week of October 21st, we're going to just kick right into it. The big topic that we've been talking about for weeks and weeks and weeks, Hong Kong. What's unique about the situation that we're going to delve into here real briefly is the fact that not much has changed, status quo. Hong Kong continues to be filled with unrest, but what's unique is the NBA is now prepping for protests at games in the US and Canada, in particular the opening night games in both Toronto and Los Angeles. Bray Wheeler: So it'll get very interesting for the National Basketball Association here over the next couple of weeks in terms of their fallout from their back and forth with China around support for Hong Kong, freedom of speech. It's been just a mixed conversation, even within the NBA and with fans of the NBA as well as just the public at large, but really for this demonstrates the NBA as organization wading into the waters of Hong Kong and the results of how they've handled themselves, probably not so well. Bryan Strawser: Not so well. The NBA's in a really difficult situation, right? I mean they are organization that was founded in the United States and has a market. Their largest market is still the United States, although that may change in the future. Their teams are in the US and Canada, but there are attempting to turn themselves into a global league, and they're playing games in International locations and they have a huge deal, huge contract in China that will likely become their largest market over time. The Chinese citizens are huge into basketball. That's been a trend that's been going on for some time. If I take off, my I'm an American hat, for a minute, the NBA is in a horrible bind. Bryan Strawser: From a purely business perspective, there is no easy decisions for them here. I think they're going to try to thread the needle. I don't know. It really never works to do that. But they are faced with a really difficult decision and that is do they cater to their existing market, which will piss off their likely future larger market, or do they cater to the future larger market and piss off their current market, or do they find some way to thread the needle in the middle? I'm not sure how they do that. But the complicating factor to all of that is that activists have figured out that the NBA is sensitive to this, and it's making a lot of play and therefore the activists, are going to lean into this issue with the NBA and provoke responses that will likely benefit the activists over anything else, so that's the bind they're in. Bryan Strawser: If I put my American hat back on, I think the message that they're receiving here in the United States is you should... I mean, why would you not back democracy? Why would you not eject these people, or why would you not welcome these kinds of protests? Why would you not make statements in support of that? Why are you censoring people who are? Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: And then I think I've mentioned in all of this too is the NBA has changed their rules of conduct for fans and taunts and basically even if you don't bring in a sign or wear a shirt, if you chant things that are not related to the game, you can be ejected. Bray Wheeler: Correct. Over the past few weeks in these pre-season games they've kicked out a number of fans for holding up simple Pro-Hong Kong signs, Chance, T-shirts, the whole nine yards and they've booted them right out. They're in a really, really tough spot. In the sport of basketball, just in comparison to the other major sports in the US, that's the one that's really gotten international foothold and really taken off that the other sports leagues don't necessarily have to combat with. Certainly baseball is an International sport. Certainly hockey is very popular in North America and Europe. But in terms of actual leagues, actual connectivity with the Pro League, the NBA is really the only one that has to deal with this. Bryan Strawser: Right. Baseball and football have just stepped there. They've just dip their tippy-toes in- Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: With all of this. Bray Wheeler: It's all localized in a way that the NBA certainly has capitalized on the big market and popularity in China and globally. But it definitely is for organizations, just a good case study and a good reminder of engagement, and even engaging for the right reasons has potential consequences and opens you to reputational crises, operational crises around these different policy issues and political issues that are going on now globally. It's not just State by State. It really is international flares to these issues. Bryan Strawser: One of the challenges, I mean we've talked about this in various ways in the past on the podcast and on Managing Uncertainty around globalization and deciding to take your business outside of where it started, and doing so usually requires that you find ways to adapt to the norms of the countries in which you're operating in. Bryan Strawser: I know from my own experience in doing this in India and in Asia, my operating model there was different. My leadership approach was different. In some cases, more reserved than what my brash American in your face leadership style is, in some cases more aggressive because that's what the local situation demanded and that's just adapting my own leadership style. Your business has to adapt to the local cultural and norms. Bryan Strawser: That's the real challenge here I think is as we've talked about previously, the Chinese do not expect to be challenged by a business that they've granted permission to operate, particularly an American business. And so the NBA is going to have to really think about, any company that's going to do this, is going to have to really think about the reputational aspects of this. I don't know that the NBA or any company could have predicted what's going on in Hong Kong this year. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: But this kind of disruption is going to continue and the challenge will not be contained as we're seeing here to just businesses operating in Hong Kong. Bray Wheeler: I mean this is certainly headline grabbing type stuff. Things like regulatory and safety in factories and things like that in Country State you're operating in aren't the same as the US and that's made some headlines here in the past few years. But, even things as simple as that, just how you operate your business even behind the scenes, there is an adaptation factor that has to take place. Bray Wheeler: So moving on from Hong Kong until next week, the next topic is Syria. And so there is a few different things that are going on with the Syria Kurd issue, post US withdrawal or as we're seeing active US withdrawal. Over the last 24, 48 hours, there's been a lot of international media attention around Kurdish forces, Kurdish population's reaction to the US leaving. Bray Wheeler: There has been pictures of them throwing stones at different military vehicles. There has been pictures of US soldiers with patches of Kurdish forces to try and show the symbol of unity that, we're still with you even though we've been ordered to leave, so there is just a lot of tension with the US-Kurd position now that the final US troops are moving out of that Kurdish region. Bray Wheeler: President Trump has indicated that some troops may stay in Syria in order to protect oil fields, oil facilities in order to prevent ISIS who has capitalized on those facilities in the past from regaining control of those to sell oil on the black market, which was very lucrative for them for a while. So that's the last force. Otherwise, the rest of them are moving into Iraq. Bray Wheeler: As a result of piling on to that, ISIS has been posting a lot of propaganda material, particularly on the newer social media site that's gaining popularity Tik Tok, which has meant to largely be funny. Their stuff is not so funny that they're posting on there. So ISIS is really capitalizing here in the last week around this attacking prisons, attacking Kurdish forces to try and free up some of that land, facilities, captured members of ISIS, things like that, so ISIS has really been on a little bit of an upswing here the last week in terms of from where they have been at least relatively speaking. Bray Wheeler: Finally, the unique piece that's we're recording this on Tuesday, October 22nd, but what has broken here today within the last couple of hours is, Turkey and Russia have reached an agreement on patrolling that Syrian border between Turkey and Syria. The US vacating that role as influencer in that area, Russia has stepped into that, and so they're the power broker for moving the Kurdish forces out of that buffer area that Turkey is seeking to establish on the Syrian border. So a lot going on in Syria, a lot of different implications that will continue to play out, but really for organizations watching that, staying on top of all the different tentacles of what's going on there is going to be very important, particularly on the US engagement front. Bray Wheeler: If you have business with Turkey, that kind of relationship is a little bit unsettled. On the terrorism front, there is certainly the ISIS factor in that popularity. You may get some, not necessarily copycats, but sympathizers that may take action as, Oh, ISIS is back, I'm going to do something to affirm my spot. So there is just a lot going on that front. Bryan Strawser: There's a lot to keep an eye on, I think because you may not be doing business in... Well, you're probably not doing business in Syria if you're listening to this podcast. Bray Wheeler: Hopefully not. Bryan Strawser: Right. Hopefully not, but you're probably doing business. If you're international, you probably have some connectivity to Turkey and you're more than likely have some connectivity to the Middle East region as a whole. This is definitely something to monitor. When we've talked about this on a previous episode, there's a lot going on in terms of military conflict there that can expand. Bryan Strawser: There's obviously other countries that are bordering Syria have concerns about what's going on and then the regional terrorism concern with ISIS and even their global reach. As this continues that they continue to gain foothold, a chance to reconstitute. There's a lot to keep an eye on here and I'm sure we'll be talking about this much in the future. Bray Wheeler: I have a feeling it's going to be another Hong Kong here over the next few weeks. Bryan Strawser: It's going to come out of nowhere and... Bray Wheeler: We're just going to keep talking about that, which transitioning into another topic we've talked to a lot a bit about is Brexit. So over the last 24, 48 hours here, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has moved to have the House of Commons vote on the agreements with the European Union that he reached with them over the last week. That got nixed yesterday by the House Speaker. He shut that down as a breach of protocol, but today they're actually reviewing that agreement and hopefully voting on that. That's the expectation. Bryan Strawser: So they have voted. While we've been here- Bray Wheeler: They voted. Bryan Strawser: Recording this episode and we're recording this episode. Bray Wheeler: Look at that. Bryan Strawser: A little afternoon on a Tuesday the 22nd, you'll be hearing this likely on the 23rd- Bray Wheeler: Real time. Yes. Bryan Strawser: Update from just about 10 minutes ago while we were recording the podcast, UK Lawmakers, and I'm reading from the Wall Street journal here, UK Lawmakers on Tuesday endorsed Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Brexit deal, giving it critical momentum in Britain's factual parliaments and raising the prospect that the country's protracted divorce from the European Union is finally reaching the end game. The fight's not over. Johnson will face further votes in the House of Commons that could delay or frustrate the deal, and he's even threatened to pull the deal if they refuse to fast track the legislation. Bryan Strawser: But in principle, this vote marks a remarkable turnaround for the Prime Minister who in three months has managed to both renegotiate an agreement with the EU and persuade the deeply divided house of commons of its merits. Earlier today, he was telling lawmakers that he would pull the deal and call for a General Election if they did not push this through in the calendar year 2019. Where was the vote? Here we go. Bryan Strawser: Mr. Johnson negotiated a deal last week with the EU that covers payments to the EU, citizens' rights and arrangement to avoid a hard border, a physical border from being built in Ireland. Despite running a minority government, Mr. Johnson in the last 48 hours has managed to win over to his course, a group of opposition labor lawmakers who backed Brexit and also persuaded almost all of the conservatives that he threw out of the party last month for defying him on a Brexit vote to rally behind his deal. Bryan Strawser: Whether this alliance will hold is unclear. Lawmakers have already begun publishing proposed amendments to the now approved divorce deal. So there's a lot here left to do, but in principle this is pretty remarkable turn around from even say Friday where things were at. Bray Wheeler: Bryan correct me if I'm wrong, essentially the vote today was just to advance the conversation and movement to make the conversation official that yes, we are actually talking about it because for the longest time it's been talking around the agreement or the process of getting to the agreement. Not necessarily the agreement itself, particularly in the last couple of months. But you're right, I mean this is a huge move to even just open up that conversation channel implications if this does go through- Bryan Strawser: They're huge. Bray Wheeler: Or a lot, they're huge. I mean even down to, Scotland potentially thinking about breaking away from the United Kingdom to go back to the EU. I know there's some tensions or uncertainty around what that lack of hard border in Ireland really the means, and whether or not that will play out how people say it will play out. Bryan Strawser: What happens to Balmoral or Scotland succeeds? I'm sorry, I just went to the Queen's favorite palace, but no, I mean you're right. I mean there's a ton of concerns around where things could go from here that are- Bray Wheeler: Beyond the just [inaudible] economy. Bryan Strawser: And I think, and I've mentioned this before and I like to just make this real for the impact on individuals. I'm a Grad student at a UK College and most of my classmates are not... I would say most of my classmates aren't British. They're from mostly from Commonwealth countries and a lot and then there's a bunch of Americans in there. They don't even know what this means. There was an email from the Principal of Kings college, which is the President of an American college, Dr. Byrne yesterday morning that said, we know many of you are concerned about this and the fact of the matter is we don't know what's going to happen, but here's what we do understand today. And I thought that that was extraordinary that you'd have to send out a message about what your country's immigration policy might be because you don't know. Bray Wheeler: Well in real time. Bryan Strawser: In real time. Bray Wheeler: And it's not. Sadly- Bryan Strawser: I mean I should let- Bray Wheeler: You probably get an update. Bryan Strawser: Maybe I'll got an update from Dr. Byrne here on a... Bray Wheeler: Perhaps by the time you've completed your coursework, it will be settled and finalized and you'll be able to just- Bryan Strawser: You'll be able to figure it out. Bray Wheeler: Float in for graduation. So for organizations around Brexit, I mean really between now and the 31st the deadline, things should become clearer or become muddier, one of the two. But now is the time to really pay attention. Now is the time to make sure that travelers are aware of what's going on and the potential implications, both short-term and in the near term until things settle out or there. Organizationally, you're having those discussions around what does this mean for our organization, whether we have operations in the EU and the UK or one of the other. Bray Wheeler: Really now is the time if you... And we've stressed this over the last couple of months, but really watch what's going on here and really start having real conversations around what this means for your organization. Because if you're not, you're going to be unprepared and you're going to be in some trouble no matter how this shakes out, even if it's orderly and everything else. The complexity here is pretty high and so to not have a good sense and feeling of what's going on and understanding of some of the implications, you're going to be behind the ball. Bryan Strawser: Brexit's a big one, most large organizations I think are studying this carefully and it's tough as fast as this moving to understand the various provisions that are going on. I do think though, if you're a US based company and you're doing business in the UK, the US has individual agreements with the UK that will likely protect your business, but it will depend on where you're coming from, where your folks are citizens of. There's a lot of moving parts here to keep track of. Bray Wheeler: Keeping with elections and votes and things like that, a couple of notable international elections have taken place here and we won't go too deep because the actual impacts of these are still a little bit unknown, but Canada here today, last night in the last 24 hours, finalized their elections. Prime minister Trudeau was re-elected, however his party lost the popular vote. So there's some political tensions going on within Canada itself. It's been a little bit of an abnormally contentious election for them. Bray Wheeler: I would probably argue they're a little bit more civilized than the US elections typically, but this one was pretty contentious. Kind of a split votes. He was able to get his majority coalition. However, there's a lot of uncertainty that has to play out on that front. Bryan Strawser: Who did the liberals ally themselves with in their conservative government or I'm sorry, in their Coalition government. Do you know? Is it the new Democrats? Bray Wheeler: I believe so. I have two of- Bryan Strawser: The most ideologically aligned. It was interesting. I think everybody expected this to be closer between the liberals and the conservatives and it wasn't. The liberals, that's Trudeau's party took a 157 seats losing 20. The conservatives gained 24, I think the surprise of the night was the Quebec Bloc, the [inaudible] names and one of the names they picked up their 32 they picked up a bunch of seats. Bryan Strawser: They picked up 22 seats, almost as many as the Conservatives dead. And so I think somewhere in there lies the coalition that went on. But yeah, it's interesting. Everybody expected this to be closer, I think, and it wasn't. The liberals primarily relied upon Ontario for their votes in the popular vote, but there's a lot of seats there. The conservatives could sort of vote was heavily concentrated in Alberta and Saskatchewan, but there's not a lot of seats there, so that shows big in the popular vote, but just like our electoral college, it didn't translate to seats. Bray Wheeler: And then the other election, which has already taken place, but this is the aftermath is in Israel. So there was a very close vote with no majority, no rival at a coalition between Prime Minister Netanyahu and his counterparts... I'm going to probably, what's his name? Gantz, former Israeli military general. Really Gantz took a little bit of a gamble and allowed Netanyahu to try and form his coalition first. Bray Wheeler: Netanyahu had the majority of seats but really Gantz challenged that Netanyahu's ability to try and form a coalition first. Unfortunately here Netanyahu's coalition did not happen. He was not able to do it and it has now moved over to Gantz to try and form that coalition and if he is able to do that, that will be a shift in Israel's coalition that they've seen for quite awhile. Bray Wheeler: It has real political and personal implications for Netanyahu who is trying to stay in power in order to be exempt from some of some legal challenges he's facing. If he is not Prime Minister, he is open to those legal challenges. So there's a lot playing out there. Nothing is settled, but it is an interesting turn of events that Netanyahu was not able to get a coalition formed. Bryan Strawser: And is likely the end of Benjamin Netanyahu's political career. I mean there's a criminal investigation that's going on that I think was pending the outcome of this election to some extent? Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Bryan Strawser: I don't know if you had more context on that. Bray Wheeler: No, I think that's... I mean that's the piece that everybody's playing up a little bit, but I think from implication to Israel standpoint that has less implication to operations and to the public of Israel other than removing somebody who's faced a lot of controversy, especially over the last few years. Bray Wheeler: So more to come there. Chile topic we haven't talked about in quite a while. I want to just briefly touch on that. There has been protests here over the last four days in Chile, particularly in the major cities. The protests really started over a small increase in transportation costs, but that was really the straw that broke the camel's back for the public in Chile who's seen in spite of economic growth that Chile has experienced, wages have stagnated, the quality of living has not improved. Bray Wheeler: So there's just a lot of tension going on in Chile. And so this transportation increase on top of the fact that people aren't making more wages has set off a lot of protests that's taken place across the country with the military being deployed, political implications for the Presidents and some of the other politicians that are in an office. Bray Wheeler: So if you have operations in Chile, you're probably likely aware that some of that's going on. But really this has the potential to turn into a Hong Kong situation where it could play out over a long period of time. Chile has a history of being a little bit more forceful on some of those things. So there's more a physical security threat potentially with some of these protests here in Chile. Bray Wheeler: So just another area to keep an eye on and we'll likely be talking about that here in the next couple of weeks as well. Last topic we have of course, our first BryghtCast Weekly edition is a nice long one. We have lots of topics, but really this one is a little bit of an interesting one. I'm going to turn it over to Bryan, but it's really around DHS, Department of Homeland Security here in the US. Leadership vacancies and the implications of that inability to fill some of those key spots. Bryan Strawser: So there's a really... So I think everyone's aware at the start of this administration, John Kelly was the Secretary of Homeland Security. He resigned that position to become White House Chief of Staff, and then Kirstjen Nielsen came in as the Secretary of Homeland Security and was confirmed by the Senate. She served in that role until she was asked to resign by the president, and then the President named the Commissioner of Border Protection, I believe this is a McLaren as the Secretary of Homeland security, the acting DHS Secretary. And he resigned, was it last week? I think that took effect last week was his last week. Bryan Strawser: And so now the President has to fill the role... The president never has a nominated a secretary. There's no one pending. It's been open for months. The acting Secretary has resigned. There is no Deputy Secretary. So the challenge becomes filling the role of a Cabinet Secretary means invoking part of a law called the Federal Vacancy Reform Act, which gives the President power to appoint individuals in roles within the Federal government in an acting capacity, except that there's restrictions on this. Bryan Strawser: And to appoint someone to the Secretary role, you have to have someone who has been either confirmed by the United States Senate in a previous role that's currently serving for 90 days under the previous Secretary who was [inaudible] confirmed. That means it can't be in a... It's not service under an acting Secretary, it's got to be serviced under a Senate confirmed secretary. Bryan Strawser: Well, the last Senate confirmed Secretary was Nielsen, and since then we've had months without a Secretary in place. So my understanding from an article yesterday was that the President was looking to appoint Ken Cuccinelli, who was previously the Virginia Attorney General, or another individual who I believe was the acting Head of Customs and Border Protection. Bryan Strawser: Cuccinelli is the acting Head of Citizenship and Immigration services. Neither of them served under Secretary Neilsen. So they're not eligible and they're not Senate confirmed. So they're not eligible, and I believe most of the Assistant Secretary roles in DHS are either open or unsuitable in terms of the President's mind. This is information that leaked out of the White House personnel office yesterday. Bryan Strawser: So we're in a really interesting bind here because there needs to be an acting DHS Secretary. There's a number of statutory issues associated with that role. The department as a whole, one of the largest departments in the Federal government needs leadership, and we can't even name an Assistant Secretary, Oh I'm sorry, an acting Secretary because we don't have these roles. So the president's really in a bind on this right now until he appoints a secretary. I'm not sure that we see any other way out of that. Bray Wheeler: No, I mean it's going to force his hand a little bit in terms of this acting leader position that he's trying to put into place across several agencies. He's likely going to have to nominate somebody in likely going to have to play the political game with those nominees that he's successfully avoided here over this year in particular, he's going to have to probably play ball again in that capacity. What would be, Bryan and your take and your expertise, what would be some of the implications just for from that lack of leadership with the organization's thinking like FEMA and immigration and all those different pieces that DHS potentially overseas not even counting. Bryan Strawser: Well, I think there's a couple of key things that come to mind and I'm not an expert in all things that DHS does as a whole, and I want to make this nonpolitical in terms of content, but I think just there's a number of issues in the public sphere right now related to DHS as work that I think are important to have a secretary or release an acting secretary in place in order to represent these issues before the American people and drive some of these policy questions to resolution. Bryan Strawser: I mean, honestly I think the biggest one in the public policy spirit now is just immigration. The president's made that a key part of his administration, as a key part of his campaign in 16 and will be again in 2020 and if you don't have a public face of that, a policy face to that, that's really the role of the Cabinet Secretary's play as in implementing and speaking to the President's policy and defending the President's policy and bringing those policies to life. Bryan Strawser: And whether you agree with the President's view on immigration or not, we need to have that debate with that position filled in. There needs to be somebody that's overseeing that work. I also think there's been a number of things that don't look good that have happened around immigration and detention and deportation of people and I think you need somebody there to mind the ship so to speak. Bryan Strawser: That's a civilian appointed at the Cabinet Secretary level to do that. And then I think there's the contingency issue of we're confronted with natural disasters all the time and FEMA, I think does a very good job of managing those in the role of the Federal Government to provide logistics and support and funding to the States who are really the ones in charge of response and the FEMA administrator as pending Senate confirmation. Bryan Strawser: But there's an acting Head who came from within FEMA and I'm sure they'll do just fine, but they need top cover and it don't mean to hide or conceal something. Bray Wheeler: No. Bryan Strawser: They needed somebody to help take the political issues off of their backs so that acting administrator, Pete Gaynor and the team can manage the situation. And I don't think this any different from the other big agencies within DHS. I think that's true for the US Coast guard. The Coast guards part of DHS and the Commandant who I met in Aspen in July is extremely capable leader and so as his team, but again, you need the civilian leadership to help you navigate situations, particularly political one. Bryan Strawser: And let's face it that the Federal budget is something that is a constant debate in Washington. And although the Commandant and the few minutes later to go and testify and make their own arguments, they worked for the DHS Secretary and they need to be able to be there as a part of that as well. So that's probably a long winded answer, but I think those are the challenges we're faced with. Bray Wheeler: Yeah, no, I think to your point, it's less the political implications and more the operational challenges for businesses around with these vacancies and acting leadership and a lot of these key posts within DHS and those implications on business, because you're talking about travel and work visas, you're talking about FEMA response to different things. You're talking about coast guard implications to supply chain and logistics, all those different things. Bray Wheeler: And to your point, that lack of not necessarily top cover but support to take the other issues off the plate so those Department Heads can actually do the things that they're tasked with doing and that their agencies are required to do and should be doing. That's really the main focus of that secretary is to act on their behalf and to support and redirect and direct as appropriate and triage for them, and that lack of stables leadership, consistent leadership in the agency has some very potentially real implications with this. Bray Wheeler: And so hopefully it is going down that path of assigning a Permanent Secretary that being forced in that position while probably not what President Trump necessarily wants to have happen might actually be a silver lining for him in that agency and thereby the public in business operations in different organizations. So with that, that concludes the first of official separates BryghtCast Weekly Edition. We will be back next week with more topics, so look for this as a separate podcast subscription again, and we'll chat next week. Bryan Strawser: Thanks for listening.

In this episode of our BryghtCast edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast, Bryghtpath Principal & CEO Bryan Strawser and Consultant Bray Wheeler take a look at three current risks and upcoming events: Hong Kong's protests evolve into a general strike on Monday India revokes the special status of Kashmir Iran seizes yet another oil tanker in Gulf, warns of increase in nuclear tech, and the US & UK team up on maritime task force //static.leadpages.net/leadboxes/current/embed.js Episode Transcript Bryan Strawser: Hello, and welcome to the Managing Uncertainty Podcast. This is Brian Strawser, principal and CEO here at Bryghtpath. Bray Wheeler: Hi, this is Bray Wheeler, Consultant at Bryghtpath. Bryan Strawser: This is our BryghtCast edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast, where we break down two or three interesting developments around the world and talk about what that may or could mean for the private sector and other organizations. This week we're going to start off by talking yet again about developments in the city of Hong Kong. Bray Wheeler: Again. Bryan Strawser: Hong Kong, the special administrative region of China, continues to have disruption. We've now evolved, today, we're recording this podcast on Monday, August 5th, today there was a general strike in Hong Kong that paralyzed transportation networks during rush hour, forced the cancellation of hundreds of flights, and shut down scores of business and restaurants after another chaotic weekend of protest across several parts of the city. Bryan Strawser: It's interesting now that this is evolving from protest to a general strike, which I think portends a much more difficult path for the Hong Kong government, and the Chinese government for that matter, and the demonstrators are getting more savvy. They're using tactics deliberately to outsmart the police. They're using lasers and lights in order to disrupt facial recognition. That was one example. Bray Wheeler: That was a big concern here kind of over the last week that they were afraid they weren't going to be able to make much more progress in terms of the protest based on the fact that China was going to use this facial recognition to start rounding folks up. Bryan Strawser: Identify people. Yeah. Yeah. It looks like tens of thousands of people participated in the protest including airline pilots, airline crews, baggage handlers, bus drivers, financial planners and others who declined to show up to work. In fact, transportation networks, the train system, primarily, train and bus system across Hong Kong, which is normally quite efficient in the financial hub, were suspended or delayed, including the airport express train that links downtown Hong Kong to the airport. More than 200 flights were delayed or canceled at Hong Kong's International Airport. Bryan Strawser: The protests have now been going on since June, and I think they've solidified now on kind of what their demands are. Of course, they're demanding the complete withdrawal of the current suspended bill that started this, the bill that allowed extradition to mainland China for trial of individuals that were arrested in Hong Kong. They want the resignation of Hong Kong's chief executive, they want an independent investigation of the police, and they want the protestors that have been arrested and charged with crimes, fake crimes, as they're describing them, to be freed or the charges dropped, I think. I'm not sure they're still in jail. Bray Wheeler: Just a couple of demands. Bryan Strawser: Just a few demands, which I think are probably going to get ignored by the mainland Chinese government. So, does our recommendation change? I mean, our recommendation has really been about monitoring what's going on. What do you think companies should be looking at now, Bray? Bray Wheeler: Well, I think right now we're starting to see that these protesters are making a much more impactful impact on life in Hong Kong. Being able to shut down transportation, being able to shut down the markets within Hong Kong, are some pretty major steps in terms of disruption. The fact that they are escalating and not deescalating as many thought probably may happen over the last week or two, just from a sustainment standpoint, that's not taking place. If anything, they're escalating this pretty substantially in terms of disruptions to businesses. Bray Wheeler: Again, not much is changing in terms of probably our recommendations for businesses, other than they continue to monitor. But I think if you haven't had discussions around continuity planning, around [crosstalk 00:04:27]- Bryan Strawser: Travel, safety- Bray Wheeler: Safety- Bryan Strawser: Travel safety. Bray Wheeler: Travel safety. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. Bray Wheeler: Those conversations need to start taking place, probably sooner rather than later. Bryan Strawser: I mean, there's a potentially a very disruptive situation that could happen here, and you and I have experienced this in other countries where there has been political strife. We saw general strikes in parts of India. We saw significant strikes and protests of different type, both peaceful and violent, during the Arab Spring of 2011. I mean, we've seen this before, where, literally, the city or state can shut down. Given the number of financial institutions and businesses that use Hong Kong as their Asia headquarters, Asia base, in a lot of cases, this may change the calculus of what that's going to look like in the future. Bray Wheeler: Even as a transportation hub for the region and being able to get in and out of that airport, I mean, that's going to have impacts, even if you don't have business based directly in Hong Kong, you can't really use that as a hub anymore. Bryan Strawser: I know that the Chinese military commander for Hong Kong said that the ... Where was his quote? The top military official, China's top military official in Hong Kong, according to this Reuters report, called the protests "absolutely intolerable" and made that statement alongside releasing video of the Chinese army conducting anti-riot drills in downtown Hong Kong. Bray Wheeler: Those protesters thought the police were a problem. The PLA is involved. Bryan Strawser: The PLA is a significant problem. Bray Wheeler: That's correct. Bryan Strawser: For those of you that haven't been to Hong Kong, they literally are in a garrison, right downtown, on the water, in the financial district. It is impossible to miss, because there are gigantic Chinese flags. It's the only place you really see that, and it's right there. It's been there since they took over from the British that the PLA was going to ... I believe it was the old British garrison that they're in. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Bryan Strawser: British army garrison. Bray Wheeler: What we need to expect here, more than likely, is that given the complications of all sorts of other things that are happening, and not trying to make kind of direct connections, but given the fact that Hong Kong is in an uprising over democracy, really, their position on it, the trade war with the U.S., those contentions, a lot of this kind of atmosphere and dynamic that's going on right now compounds kind of China's ability in some of their calculus in terms of what they're going to do next. They're probably not too worried about other countries getting involved, necessarily, if we've escalated this up with trade wars and other things. There's a little bit of that dynamic at play, too, that just the environment of what's happening here, it's not, it's less in control than it has been, even when these first started, that the calculus has changed a little bit. There's a little bit more uncertainty out there. Bryan Strawser: And I'm not sure what the answer is. I mean, where will this go in the long run? As we've talked previously, China's history for dealing with internal disruption is not pretty. Bray Wheeler: No. Bryan Strawser: These protests are on the scale or bigger than what happened in Tiananmen Square. I think that was 1989, if I remember right. These are beyond that in terms of scale, and they're happening in this city where press censorship is much more difficult than what they did in Beijing in '89 when they decided to act on the student protests. Bray Wheeler: Well, and even in some of their more remote regions that they've kind of asserted their control over different rebellions and uprisings that they've seen, Hong Kong, to your point, it's a very different animal in terms of that freedom of press, that exposure to the international scene. People are seeing it. You can't get away from it from a global standpoint, and so China, they have to assert themselves, probably, at some point, how they're going to choose to do that given that exposure. I think to your point, we just don't know yet. Bryan Strawser: I mean, I'm not sure what the path is going to be. I think there might be a middle ground here if China picks a new chief executive, and the new chief executive comes in and just withdrawals the law, the previous law, and calls it a day, and does it end or does it continue? I can see that being a move that China makes, because they could brush it off as ineffective leadership by Carrie Lam, and so, "We're going to dump her, and we're going to pick a new chief executive." And then make that play. That's not ... China's done this before in the aftermath of Tiananmen, where they made major changes to the successors of the regime at the time, because they were opposed to that action, so they deposed them. Bray Wheeler: Yep. The party will always survive. Bryan Strawser: The party will survive. Bray Wheeler: It's just a matter of who's going to take the blame for it. Yeah. I mean, that scenario is entirely possible given they're kind of demonstrating some of their strong arm tactics and kind of their rhetoric, that to be able to back off and find a happy medium, in terms of making those leadership changes and kind of, hopefully, settling it out and then addressing their issues later on a few years from now, a year from now, something like that, through new legislation or new politics. Bray Wheeler: The second item we have this week just kind of happened also today. On Monday, India revoked Kashmir's special status. Why that's important here ... Kashmir is kind of a long-contested region between India and Pakistan, primarily. China also has a little bit of an involvement there, but it's India's only Muslim kind of majority state. And so there's some difficulties from that standpoint, as well. But Kashmir, once India and Pakistan won kind of their independence from Britain in 1947, they ended up dividing Kashmir kind of as an independent area, kind of between the nations. India has since kind of asserted some more direct control through constitutional and different deals. But given that ... And which kind of forms the basis for that special status. The fact that they've revoked that special status is a pretty big deal, and it's a little bit unprecedented. They've kind of toyed with it in the past. They've suggested some different things in the past that were kind of around that, but never made this direct move. Bray Wheeler: And why this is important is a couplefold. Probably from the international community, Kashmir doesn't have a whole lot of kind of impact on global economics, excuse me. But from their relationship with Pakistan and probably a little bit with China, this is a big deal. Pakistan has already made indications that they're pretty outraged about it. This is a pretty direct kind of move by India in that region. There's often been skirmishes, there's been battles, there's been troop movements, things like that in Kashmir. It's a very contested zone. But for India to take this kind of dramatic step and contest control of that area, directly, is probably not only incites kind of internal politics within India, but also kind of outrages Pakistan. The fact that they're so close to each other, and just their given their history, we don't know where this leads. Bryan Strawser: For those who don't know the history, of course, when India became independent, Pakistan also became independent. It was part of India for forever. But it really spun off because Pakistan was made up, for the most part, the Muslim majority provinces or states of India, with the exception of Kashmir. Kashmir is India's only Muslim majority state, and its proximity to Pakistan has always been in dispute since their separation in 1947. The fight over Kashmir, which has always been more of a cold fight with a few hot spots, on a monthly basis thrown in there, as in they like to lob artillery at each other regularly. Bray Wheeler: Suicide attacks. Bryan Strawser: Suicide attacks- Bray Wheeler: Troop movements- Bryan Strawser: Some troop movement. Look, India has committed aggressive acts against Pakistan. Pakistan has committed aggressive acts against India. It all happens in and around Kashmir, for the most part. It's nothing unusual. But yeah, I mean, it's kind of like, all of a sudden, they just looked at this tinder box and said, "Well, let's throw a match in it and see what happens." Bryan Strawser: I mean, this is really controversial. It's controversial within India's parliament, where the representatives from the two impacted states, in one case, they're taking the state's actual government away and making it an arm of the central government. Right? And the other one, they're telling them that they've lost their autonomy, their special autonomy status that they had. It's just, it's an interesting one. And I don't know, would this have happened under a different prime minister? Bray Wheeler: Maybe, maybe not. I think probably what we're seeing here is ... This is, again, I think we've talked about this a few podcasts ago. India's kind of assertion of their power in the region kind of leads here a little bit. This is kind of another move by India to kind of make some noise, make some hay, assert their kind of control and their power. They're kind of flexing their muscles a little bit with this, because Pakistan can't directly stop this decision. Bryan Strawser: Right. Bray Wheeler: The fact that Pakistan and the U.S. met within the last week or so, India's kind of reasserting themselves. That, because Pakistan had asked the U.S. to kind of help mediate between the two countries regarding Kashmir, U.S. and China have, obviously, had some stuff over the last couple of weeks, India is now making a little bit of a kind of a power move to just get in the game and kind of assert themselves is really kind of my view on this move, is really to kind of take a step and say, "Yeah, we're not forgotten here. We're making a move." Bryan Strawser: How much of this ... The reason I asked the question about would this have happened under the previous prime minister, this move kind of fits with Modi's approach as a Hindu nationalist. He has been unafraid to making decisions based upon India's Hindu majority population. Bray Wheeler: Correct. Bryan Strawser: This kind of fits in that mold from the standpoint that he's stripping this autonomy from a region that is not a Hindu majority. In fact, it's a Muslim majority population. A lot of the Hindus, because of ancient ... I shouldn't say "ancient", because the history of India, the India-Pakistan independence movement, the two religions and its adherence don't necessarily trust each other inside of India. The central government hasn't always done a good job of respecting that difference of religious view, either. Bray Wheeler: No, and that leads a little bit to the, some of what they've given as explanations for this move, in terms of terrorism and kind of Muslim attacks within Kashmir and kind of the contested area. I mean, that aligns with kind of Modi's M.O. around that, and kind of taking some direct stances against that. That's kind of one of the reasons they've given for this. Bray Wheeler: But I mean, really, for companies right now, this is a thing to watch, especially if you have business within India, especially if you have business within some of those areas along the coast in between Pakistan and India. We've seen terrorism attacks in the past within India. It's not out of the question for groups within Pakistan, not necessarily affiliated directly with Pakistan. Some are. But it is possible for this to get out of control pretty quick, depending on kind of where this goes over the next 48 to 72 hours, and kind of Pakistan's response. Bray Wheeler: Now, Pakistan has, obviously, appealed to the UN, because it's in violation of some of the UN resolutions and kind of deals that have been struck. Pakistan has been kind of making all the right moves politically to set themselves up as aggrieved. Bray Wheeler: But that's not going to stop some of these groups from potentially kind of exercising their more aggressive tendencies. That's not to say it's doom and gloom, that it's going to happen, but companies definitely need to start kind of paying attention to this and preparing for the fact that this could go sideways pretty quick. Because this is, as we've talked about, this as a pretty unprecedented step for India. Bryan Strawser: I would go as far as to say that unless your company specifically has business operations in Kashmir, to your travelers or expatriates that are in India, I would make Kashmir off limits to them. There's too much risk of conflict, and you're suddenly going to find yourselves in a situation where you've got a couple of travelers who wanted to see Kashmir, because it's beautiful, and they're out there, and an artillery barrage starts. There's not a lot you're going to be able to do at that point in time to guarantee their safety, to ensure their safety. Bray Wheeler: Yep. That's one of those regions in the world where it's beautiful- Bryan Strawser: It's best just not to be there. Bray Wheeler: It's beautiful for a reason. Because it's- Bryan Strawser: Because it's best not to be there. Bray Wheeler: It's like the Korean demilitarized zone. It's beautiful for a reason. You know? Because there's guns pointed on both sides. Bryan Strawser: I think our last story for this episode is about a Iran's seizure of yet another tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. Bray, what's the story there? Bray Wheeler: Iran has taken a couple of steps here in the last kind of few days. They've claimed they've seized another oil tanker, which they say is smuggling oil through the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. They're kind of elevating their presence as a security force to guarantee kind of tanker safety and maritime safety within the region. All of which is a little bit fuzzy, because they're the ones taking tankers. However, this kind of demonstrates that they really haven't backed off, and they're not backing off. If anything, they're continuing to kind of elevate their posture with some of that. Bray Wheeler: They've also made some pretty kind of direct comments kind of at European powers here today, as well, in terms of the kind of nuclear deal, and their kind of escalation of, "Unless we can work something out ... " Excuse me. "Unless we can work something out between Iran and Europe for the U.S. kind of backing out of the agreement," they're going to start kind of elevating their production of nuclear materials, heavy water, uranium, plutonium, et cetera. There's really not much Europe can do about that, because the U.S. has kind of led the charge on that, so there's only so much Europe can do. It kind of fits in the mold of what kind of Iran's been doing of kind of escalating tensions there in the area. Bryan Strawser: There's been a lot of discussion about some type of maritime security alliance in the Gulf, through the Strait of Hormuz, where I believe, initially, this was kind of, this was bounced around a little bit in the last two weeks. But, initially, when the United States talked about it, no one wanted to play with us. Primarily, because of the current administration's foreign policy approach, the president's foreign policy approach. Then it became, "Well, the UK can lead a maritime security alliance in the Strait of Hormuz." The Brits approached the French and the Germans who said, "No." Now this appears to be coming back or headed back towards a UK-U.S., which means probably Canada, New Zealand and Australia will come along and play for this. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: There was an interesting piece related to this whole issue on the U.S. Naval Institute blog, kind of the think tank that looks at maritime issues from a U.S. perspective, where a retired U.S. naval officer made a long argument why the data shows that the Brits, the Royal Navy, can, essentially, not project enough power to do this on their own. They have one destroyer, as I understand, or a cruiser, in the Persian Gulf- Bray Wheeler: It's limited. Bryan Strawser: ... and that's what they can do. And he really kind of took to task the Brits for some of their defense decisions when it comes to the navy. I'm just going to read the end, because I thought it was an interesting and insightful view that "Alliances at sea are tender devices. Everyone's relearning today a lesson that will be eternal for any nation's naval forces. Friends are nice to have, but they're often fleeting, and you need to be prepared to fight alone or just go home. Design your nation's navy accordingly." I think the Brits are in a situation where they simply can't project enough power to protect their shipping- Bray Wheeler: They can't. Bryan Strawser: ... in that area. They have other ships who are committed elsewhere. I think in the end, this is going to come down to can the Brits, and the U.S., and perhaps some of the Commonwealth countries, the Five Eyes, figure out how we can do this together. Of course, we have the challenges of our president's current lack of relationships on the international front probably complicate this, because there is no personal diplomacy to be had to build that alliance. Bray Wheeler: Well, and this all stems somewhat back to the nuclear deal and our, the U.S.'s decision to- Bryan Strawser: To blow it up. Bray Wheeler: ... to pull out of it. It's kind of forced Europe into a box, particularly the UK, because they're one of the kind of the major parties of that. The UK, again, doesn't have the force projection in the Strait of Hormuz. They continue to do it. The U.S. has indicated that, "Well, it's British tankers, it's kind of your problem." There's a reluctance to, necessarily, probably on our end, to get super-involved from a U.S. standpoint, just based on everything else that's going on. Unless there's some kind of direct confrontation that would kind of force our hand in a different way. It's just this situation in particular is, again, like we've seen with Hong Kong, isn't going away anytime soon. There's not- Bryan Strawser: No. Bray Wheeler: There's not a magic answer here. Bryan Strawser: No, there's not. There's a very deliberate effort. I mean, you have to kind of take a step back and look at who benefits from all of this. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: There's a very deliberate effort underway with Iran's approach having the JPOA pulled by the United States. What Iran is trying to do is, they see the personality split in the NATO alliance, in the [inaudible] Atlantic alliances, between the U.S. and others in Europe. They see the split between President Trump and the European leaders, and they're trying to drive a wedge through that by continuing to separate the United States from its traditional allies. Because in the end, that just benefits to them. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: They know they can't win. They don't want a war, a shooting war. They know they can't win in a head on conflict between themselves and the NATO powers. No one's going to back their play, so they're trying to divide us. They're trying to separate these traditional alliances through this irregular warfare. Iran is the expert, the modern day expert, in irregular warfare. They've been doing it with Hamas and Hezbollah, with Israel and Lebanon, all along. Bray Wheeler: Yep. Right. Bryan Strawser: They know how to play that game better than anybody on that end of the spectrum. So, that's the challenge. The foreign policy, national security challenge, anyway. The corporate challenge is, it's just a very unsafe situation. Bray Wheeler: Well, I think that's kind of the general theme, in particular, with these three topics this week, is it's just an indication of the changing dynamic of the U.S. foreign policy influence kind of in the global community, and what's happening, and people's desire or courage to take some different steps that they may not have taken in the past. Would Iran have done this five years ago, 10 years ago? Maybe, maybe not, depending on the situation. But there's definitely an environment out there that they feel pretty willing to try and take some pretty overt moves in terms of, to your point, driving the wedge and finding those cracks in the policies, and just pushing enough that they continue to kind of get away with what they want to get away with. Bryan Strawser: To me, this poses the bigger national security and private sector challenge is that, certainly, there's the potential for great power conflict between the United States and China or Russia. And we are dealing with that in some different ways that we've talked about here before with Taiwan, and Hong Kong, and elsewhere. I still think it's the irregular warfare situation that's driven by, really, Iran is the last big player in this area. Bryan Strawser: But, certainly, the terrorist groups fit in here. I mean, this was Isis' and Al-Qaeda's approach, and AQAP's approach in Yemen, and Somalia, and Ethiopia, Djibouti. You know? And things that we still see happening. But I think that this is the threat. It's not going to be the great naval and air war between the U.S. and China. It's going to be, how do we continue to deal with the irregular warfare set in the Middle East and elsewhere, Horn of Africa, that cause these issues? Bray Wheeler: Well, and just the unstable environments that arise, that pop up, that are stoked by different nations trying to unsettle things. And so, private sector, certainly, from the U.S. and from other kind of western European kind of origins, you're having to change. You're starting to see a change in the writing on the wall, or whatever cliche you want to insert there, that your business as usual is evolving, and probably in a way that is going to be kind of a slow burn, until all of a sudden in a spot you were pretty comfortable in, is no longer comfortable. It's popped up, not because of kind of armed conflict, even. It could just be what we're seeing in Hong Kong, or kind of heightened tensions with Kashmir, or kind of disruption with economic trade like we're seeing in the Strait of Hormuz. I mean, all these things are kind of little slow burns that all of a sudden change the dynamic, and you're operating in a different way. And if you're not thinking about that, and you're not paying attention to those things, you're going to get caught. Bryan Strawser: This kind of takes us to another pivot that's going on, and I don't think we've recognized it for what it is yet. But if you think about the last 20 years, starting with September 10th and what we thought was the challenge from a national security and private sector perspective, and how the next day changed all of that. Right? We woke up on September 12th, 2001, and we spent the next couple of years figuring out the new rule sets. Right? Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bryan Strawser: Everything had changed. Business resiliency suddenly became a real thing, because 9/11 made it much more real to a lot of people and companies than before. Then you saw the pivot in the kind of counterinsurgency and the rise of irregular warfare in the Middle East, driven by our, the United States efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq, what that meant for surrounding areas. Bryan Strawser: Now I think we're on the next pivot, and the pivot is, now it's Iran spinning much more publicly, much more visibly, this web of issues that it's creating, and we still have those other irregular warfare things going on to disrupt our world. Not to mention the active shooter incidents of this past weekend that changed the security posture of companies, and mass gatherings, and things along those lines. But that's a conversation for another day. Bray Wheeler: It is. It is. We're not jumping in that one today. Bryan Strawser: That's it for this edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast, the BryghtCast edition for the week of August 5th, 2019. We'll have more episodes coming soon. Hope to see you then. Thanks for listening.

With this episode of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast, we're joined by all members of our consulting team at Bryghtpath, including the return of the previous co-host Jennifer Otremba, who has returned to us safely after a year of military leave. Moving forward, we plan to release two episodes weekly. A news/current events focused episode, dubbed "BryghtCast" covering challenges to the business community from current risks or upcoming events - and how companies should be thinking about these events from a physical security, crisis management, and business continuity perspective. A deep dive episode into a specific topic related to business continuity, crisis management, intelligence, crisis communications, or a related field. This is the type of podcast episode that we've typically done in the past. Look for a new episode next Monday covering the current situation in Hong Kong and steps companies should consider over the coming days and months. In this episode of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast, we're covering recent developments with Wal-Mart's Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) settlement with the US Government, the recent Mayoral elections in Istanbul, Turkey and its impact on national politics there, and the recent escalation in conflict and tension between the United States and Iran in the Persian Gulf. //static.leadpages.net/leadboxes/current/embed.js Episode Transcript Bryan Strawser: Welcome back to the Managing Uncertainty Podcast. This is Bryan Strawser, principal and CEO at Bryghtpath. I want to talk a little bit about some changes that we're going to make to the podcast starting with this episode. We have decided now to release two episodes each week, and they're going to have a little different focus.   Bryan Strawser: The first episode each week, the one that you're listening to right now is going to be more of a news and current events-focused discussion. We're going to look at somewhere between three and five things that are happening in the news or are planned to happen in the coming days that are relevant to your preparedness capabilities around the world.   Bryan Strawser: So joining me for this discussion will be the rest of the Bryghtpath consulting team, Jennifer Otremba and Bray Wheeler. I'm going to have Jenn and Bray introduce themselves, and then we'll come back to me and talk a little bit about what this is going to look like. Jenn?   Jenn Otremba: Hi, I'm Jenn Otremba. I'm a senior consultant here at Bryghtpath.   Bray Wheeler: Hi, this is Bray Wheeler. I'm a consultant here at Bryghtpath.   Bryan Strawser: Why don't each of you talk just a little bit about your backgrounds for a little bit?   Jenn Otremba: Sure. I'll start if you want.   Bray Wheeler: Sure.   Jenn Otremba: So I started at Bryghtpath a few years ago now, but I took a little bit of a leave of absence. I'm also in the National Guard. I've got over 20 years experience with the military. I've been gone for about almost a year, right guys?   Bryan Strawser: Yeah.   Jenn Otremba: Over in the Middle East working.   Bryan Strawser: I like how you said you kind of took a sabbatical, but it's not this was by choice.   Jenn Otremba: Yeah. No, no a little bit of a break from Bryghtpath for my other career path there.   Jenn Otremba: I know that I have introduced myself before on the podcast, but as a reminder, I worked with Bryan for quite a long time, and Bray as well, when we were all at Target together.   Bryan Strawser: Mr. Wheeler?   Bray Wheeler: Yeah, I've been with Bryghtpath just about a year now. So before that, I worked, like Jenn mentioned, with Bryan and Jenn at Target doing a lot of different stuff. I'm brand new to the podcast. My background is everything from crisis managements in an operation center to enterprise crisis management to intelligence to corporate security. I touched just about everything [crosstalk]   Bryan Strawser: This is Bray's first episode on the podcast despite almost a year of trying to get him to do a podcast.   Jenn Otremba: So I show up, and Bray's all in.   Bryan Strawser: Yeah, exactly.   Bray Wheeler: Yep. Got to lighten the load a little bit. I got to deflect it just a little bit. Take the pressure off.   Jenn Otremba: Yeah.   Bryan Strawser: So this change in our format came from discussions that the three of us were having at the tail end of last week. But we've kind of been thinking about this for a while. I think there's a place in the market to have discussion about more current events as they happen without going into kind of the deep dive process discussion, which is what our typical episode has been. So we hope you find this valuable. We think this is going to be an interesting conversation.   Bray Wheeler: Yeah. No, I think it brings a little bit of something different than just kind of, to your point, deep diving into something. It's a little bit more of, hey, what just happened in the last week, and what do we kind of expect?   Bryan Strawser: A little bit of interpretation   Bray Wheeler: Yeah.   Bryan Strawser: Yeah, what does that mean?   Jenn Otremba: Plus, let's face it. We're all sitting around talking about what's going on in the world-   Bryan Strawser: That's right.   Jenn Otremba: ... every day anyway, so we might as well talk about it with everyone.   Bryan Strawser: That's right.   Bray Wheeler: Right.   Bryan Strawser: And I think we may bring some things to the forefront that maybe you're not thinking about. I know this is going to happen with one of the topics we're going to discuss today. Maybe it's something you should be thinking about, because it will have future impact on what we do.   Bryan Strawser: So let's move right into the topics we have for today. The first one, which I'll kind of tee up the discussion is from a Wall Street Journal article the tail end of last week. This is the announcement from the U.S. Department of Justice that Walmart has agreed to plead guilty and pay $282 million in a Foreign Corrupt Practices Act case involving facilitation payments that Walmart made in Brazil, China, India, and Mexico. This is at the tail end of a six-year discussion and investigation that's gone on between Walmart and the United States government to get to this settlement. It requires Walmart to pay $144 million in ill-begotten gains to the Securities and Exchange Commission and $138 million FCPA penalty to the U.S. Justice Department. It's one of the largest cases, if not the largest cases, ever.   Bray Wheeler: It's a big number.   Bryan Strawser: Huge number. This investigation started, according to this article, in 2012, which had an investigation from the New York Times about payments that Walmart had made in Mexico in order to obtain permits to build stores there. Then it expanded to Brazil, China, and India. Reactions?   Jenn Otremba: I mean, I'm shaking my head. From a business perspective, this is a huge deal, right, of crisis management. I can't imagine what they're doing in their ops center as this is starting to hit the news.   Bryan Strawser: There's certainly a reputational issue here. I mean, Walmart already has had over the years some challenges reputationally with its compliance with various aspects of law, but not necessarily recognized as a place where workers are treated fairly and a lot of various exploitation of communities and stuff that have been alleged along the way. Then here comes this massive bribery case.   Bray Wheeler: I think for Walmart, too, the amount of money probably isn't the issue for them. It's the having the largest fine ever and the reputational fallout of it is ... I mean, for companies that hurts more so than the fines, especially for a company the size of Walmart.   Jenn Otremba: And what do you guys think as far as Walmart goes? Do you think it's going to have a huge reputational impact? I mean, do you think that Walmart shoppers care about this?   Bryan Strawser: No, I don't.   Jenn Otremba: Because I don't know that I do either. I think other companies, this would be a bigger hit, but I don't know that Walmart would be as affected.   Bryan Strawser: I think we were discussing this on Friday with one of our clients just on our regular status call, that this news had just come out. This is a company that operates internationally and particularly in Asia. They're in India. I think it immediately kind of raised his hackle from the standpoint of, "Well, I wonder what we're going to do about this." Because obviously, there was heightened intensity that led to kind of this issue.   Bryan Strawser: I mean, it's kind of interesting that if you get into the article, Walmart has spent $900 million investigating this over the last seven years internally. That doesn't count the fine and the SEC payment. But at the core of the issue, in terms of what was alleged by the SEC and the DOJ is that Walmart grew significantly in the 1990s, and they didn't ramp up their systems to account for corruption risk. There's kind of a systematic accusation here that they weren't prepared to deal with the possibility that this might happen.   Bray Wheeler: Well, it's one of those, ignorance is not an excuse at that point. You're so heavily focused on expanding the business that you're not accounting for those people you're hiring on the other end, the partners you have on the other ends just awareness to that process, that it's not the same old, same old environment you're used to.   Jenn Otremba: I guess I would argue what other large corporations are also not prepared for this type of thing that have had huge growth in a short period of time, just like Walmart.   Bryan Strawser: A lot probably.   Jenn Otremba: A lot, right?   Bryan Strawser: I would think.   Jenn Otremba: Walmart's just the one that's hit the news and is getting caught right now.   Bryan Strawser: Right.   Jenn Otremba: Do you think that this is going have a long effect on other corporations as this has come out?   Bryan Strawser: I mean, I think the wake-up call here is probably around, as global expansion ramps up, your compliance capability needs to ramp up with it. We have other clients that have had some FCPA challenges related to bribery in foreign countries, where the same thing happened. They grew rapidly, they spun up global operations, but they didn't spin up a compliance capability to make sure that folks were educated and that they were looking for these issues, right? I mean, that's really what the SEC is accusing Walmart of, is they didn't ramp up their capabilities as they grew so much internationally. We've been through this.   Jenn Otremba: Right.   Bryan Strawser: Both as employees and as a consulting firm. I did find the Brazilian accusations kind of interesting, because when I was in business school, our international residency was in Brazil. We were divided into groups after the two-week trip to Brazil. Each of our groups had to get up and talk about a specific aspect of what we learned in Brazil. My team got tax, which was really not that interesting. But another team had business ethics and compliance, and the subject of their presentation was ... When they got up, they put up a slide in Brazilian colors and it said, "Corruption and business ethics in Brazil, this shit is corrupt." That was the presentation. Mind you, it was our last presentation before graduation, so we may have been a little punchy.   Bryan Strawser: We all heard this in different aspects of our own careers, that you'd go to India, go to Brazil, or go to Mexico, and facilitation payments, AKA bribery, are the norm.   Jenn Otremba: Yeah.   Bray Wheeler: Yeah. [crosstalk]   Jenn Otremba: They're part of business.   Bryan Strawser: Yeah.   Bray Wheeler: Yeah, it's part of the culture. That's what they're used to. So if you go into those places relying on kind of the experts on the ground, they're going to go with what they know, and that's how they do business.   Bryan Strawser: Right.   Jenn Otremba: Right.   Bryan Strawser: We had a criminal case in India once that we were dealing with in our prior life where we attempted to get some prosecution on a case. The local police commander was like, "I also would really like a bike like that one." "But we're filing a prosecution." "Yeah, but I would like a bike, like that bike, that motorbike, motorcycle." So needless to say, the person didn't get prosecuted. We didn't buy him a motorcycle.   Bryan Strawser: Jenn, what's our next topic?   Jenn Otremba: Okay, so everyone's favorite discussion, the Middle East, and Iran is basically the update. I think it's important to continue kind of keeping an eye on what's happening in the Middle East, and specifically what's happening with Iran, because some of the latest things that have come out are ... Obviously, we saw that a drone was shot down. Everyone's seen that on news now. We've seen how the United States has responded to that, or not responded depending on what your opinion is on what should be done or what shouldn't be done.   Bryan Strawser: Or who you want to believe.   Jenn Otremba: Yeah, and I've seen some discussions around cyber attacks. I've seen new sanctions that are going to be put in place for Iran. Then the reaction for what Iran's going to think about that or what their reaction's going to be towards the United States. And through not just the United States, but other coalition forces around the world.   Bryan Strawser: So two things have happened, right? There was a tanker attack now two weeks ago.   Jenn Otremba: Yeah.   Bray Wheeler: Multiple tankers.   Bryan Strawser: Yeah, two tankers. There is some dispute about exactly what happened and who's behind it. But the attack was limpet mines, which are magnetic mines that are usually placed by a diver. It's the Navy Seals' preferred way to sabotage a ship. One of the ship's crew on one of the tankers said they saw a torpedo, so maybe it wasn't a limpet mine. There's dispute, debate. I don't know, disinformation.   Bray Wheeler: There's even reports that crew members were reporting a shell somebody actually fired over the waterline.   Bryan Strawser: Like artillery.   Bray Wheeler: Like artillery shell.   Bryan Strawser: Not artillery, but like a ship to ship.   Bray Wheeler: Yeah.   Bryan Strawser: Yeah. It's fascinating.   Jenn Otremba: Yeah, it is.   Bray Wheeler: Lots of accounts.   Jenn Otremba: Yeah, rumors.   Bryan Strawser: The U.S. State Department has said it was Iran that was behind it, but other countries are disputing this, I believe.   Jenn Otremba: Of course, yeah.   Bryan Strawser: Yeah. So we have that. That's two weeks ago. That ramped up some tension. Then last week, what happens? You get the drone shot down. Iran claims it was over their territorial water. We said it was in international air- I'm sorry, it was the international airspace. They claimed it was in their airspace.   Jenn Otremba: Yeah. That's common though, right? The argument of where it was exactly when it was shot down. Was it legal to shoot it down? Or was it an act of war really?   Bryan Strawser: Right.   Bray Wheeler: Well, and that's not an uncommon conversation, to your point.   Jenn Otremba: No.   Bray Wheeler: I mean, Russia and the U.S. do that all the time around-   Jenn Otremba: All the time.   Bray Wheeler: ... whether or not we're in each other's airspace or not.   Jenn Otremba: Yes. Yeah.   Bryan Strawser: Right.   Jenn Otremba: Exactly.   Bryan Strawser: Apparently we were going to attack Iran or retaliate by hitting some missile capabilities. I guess, it's not really clear what we were allegedly going after.   Jenn Otremba: Right.   Bryan Strawser: Then if you follow the common narrative, the president canceled the attack 10 minutes before it was supposed to go off. But he disputes that. The New York Times and the Washington Post have a tick-tock story from the weekend about kind of the play-by-play of what happened. But again, it's tough to know who to believe when there's multiple versions of what's going on.   Jenn Otremba: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I'm sure there's some truth somewhere in between, but we're not going to have all of the information.   Bryan Strawser: Right.   Jenn Otremba: And we're not going to have all of the information that the executive branch has in front of them either as we're kind of making our opinions on the topic.   Jenn Otremba: But I think that this'll be interesting to continue to watch and to see how this is going to affect really all of us in the United States. But for me, it hits really close to home, understanding I still have friends right now working and operating in the Middle East. So I have a lot of concerns with how this is all going to play out.   Bryan Strawser: So the FAA has banned overflights of Iran for international flights involving American-flagged aircraft. It won't stop the Europeans and others from doing so, but it will apply to U.S. carriers anyway.   Bryan Strawser: Certainly American companies don't really operate in Iran because of decades-old sanctions. But we're everywhere else. I mean, Dubai is one of the world's big financial centers. It's right across the Strait of Hormuz from where all of this was going on. That's a common travel hub for folks going to Asia or elsewhere in the Middle East, to be fair. I mean, Emirates has pretty significant service from the U.S. to there, and then on to other locales like India.   Bryan Strawser: There's a lot of risk in disrupting the market. I think there's less issue with oil disruption because of the growth in U.S. oil production over the last decade in North Dakota and elsewhere. But there's still a lot of risk to the global economy that comes into play here.   Jenn Otremba: Well, and it's obviously a very volatile situation. So we're having this conversation of what airspace is what. You know, "We shot your passenger airplane down, because it was in our airspace." Was it? I mean, that's pretty scary.   Bray Wheeler: Well, I think to the oil price discussion too, a lot of times historically, this would have been 10 years, global oil prices have shot up. Nobody's really seeing that at the pump in the U.S. right now,-   Bryan Strawser: Yeah, right.   Bray Wheeler: ... because we've kind of buffered ourselves a little bit.   Bryan Strawser: Right.   Bray Wheeler: But I think from just the global economy piece. And then somebody did a breakdown, one of the talking heads on one of the cable networks, kind of broke down kind of the impacts of if they went to full-scale escalation and how pretty much the U.S. and its allies pretty much could beat Iran pretty easily based on just U.S.'s power.   Bray Wheeler: But they did kind of an interesting take on kind of playing out how if Iran was to really succeed in this, they would rely on their proxies. Those proxies then carry into Saudi Arabia, they carry into UAE, they carry into Afghanistan,-   Bryan Strawser: Lebanon.   Bray Wheeler: ... Iraq, Lebanon, into Israel, the Straits of Hormuz. They're pretty much going to disrupt that entire region just using their proxy network at pretty much on one order.   Bryan Strawser: That's been their game plan for the last four decades since the revolution, has been to engage in a proxy campaign against the United States and the Western allies through the ways that you just described. Direct military action has rarely been their forte. I shouldn't say forte, has been their approach against the United States.   Bray Wheeler: Yeah, because I think it's-   Jenn Otremba: For a reason.   Bryan Strawser: Well, right.   Bray Wheeler: Yeah.   Bryan Strawser: Yeah.   Bray Wheeler: Because it's the only way.   Bryan Strawser: Why fight the leviathan head on if you can use proxies to do that?   Jenn Otremba: Yeah, absolutely.   Bray Wheeler: But I think it's interesting from kind of that business mindset. It's not just U.S.-Iran or Iran-Iraq kind of tensions, and all of this won't have anything or maybe it's just oil or the commodities coming through the Strait. It's, if you're doing business anywhere in the Middle East for any reason, you're at risk and should be thinking about that proxy fight and that ability for those governments and those institutions to hold up against some of that without cracking down or having to pick a side or a lot of other-   Bryan Strawser: Right.   Jenn Otremba: And not just economy for the United States, but really this is a world economy issue.   Bryan Strawser: So definitely an area that businesses should be monitoring and looking, I think, for multiple sources of truth about what's going on. Because there is certainly a dispute here about what has happened; and of course, both countries will have their own version of what's going on. So I think look for multiple sources of truth from the news and get a holistic perspective of what's going on.   Jenn Otremba: Right.   Bryan Strawser: Bray, you want to take us to our last current event for the episode?   Bray Wheeler: Yeah. So this is a little bit of one to watch, because it's a little bit kind of new breaking story. But it's out of Turkey. So over the last four or five months, for sure, there's been some discrepancy in the mayors race in Istanbul. President Erdogan of Turkey, his kind of chosen candidate lost in the election in March. So he called for a recount, which was highly controversial. Then they just did the recount, or they just did a re-vote, and his candidate lost even worse.   Bray Wheeler: So now, he's having to deal with the fallout of kind of the economic pressure that he's facing in his country; but then also, his political pressure that's now amping up, because Istanbul is his home turf. His party's controlled it for pretty much like the last 25 years or something. So now, he's having to face kind of this increased pressure against his administration and against his kind of administrative policies.   Bryan Strawser: The Wall Street Journal has a pretty good dive into this from a few days ago. Well, I guess from yesterday, now that I look at the article. I mean, historically, the president of Turkey has gotten what he wants, right?   Bray Wheeler: Mm-hmm (affirmative).   Bryan Strawser: He might get challenged, but usually the various government agencies line up behind what he wants, even though these elections are supposed to be independent, or be not impacting on a national level. Will he accept the mayoral results? If he does, what political powers and authorities will he allow the mayor of Istanbul to keep compared to stripping them?   Bray Wheeler: Well and particularly him, getting what he wants. I mean, that's kind of has been his MO is, he's gotten what he wants.   Bryan Strawser: To your point for 25 years.   Bray Wheeler: For over 25 years he's gotten what he wanted. Now he's facing some real serious challenges to his ability to control that power.   Bryan Strawser: And I should point out, I mean, his margin of victory in this second race here was 54 to 45. It wasn't close-   Jenn Otremba: No.   Bryan Strawser: ... at all.   Bray Wheeler: No. That's way outside the margin of error.   Jenn Otremba: Right.   Bryan Strawser: Yeah.   Bray Wheeler: Even for-   Bryan Strawser: Even for what happens there.   Bray Wheeler: ... non-U.S. countries-   Jenn Otremba: Yeah.   Bray Wheeler: ... who probably don't poll as much as we do. But I think from kind of that impact and kind of why we're kind of highlighting that and something to watch is Turkey's kind of a pretty good bellwether in terms of just stability and kind of the source of truth on the ground for how everything's feeling both from that connection to Europe and the Middle East. So if there's some grumbling there, that typically kind of there's some fallout politically anyway kind of across that region, and makes everybody a little bit more uncertain as that kind of goes along.   Bray Wheeler: Turkey's also kind of a player for a lot of different U.S.-based companies, global companies. Just its proximity and its geography and its capabilities as a country, it's definitely something to watch and keep aware of as this kind of plays out. Because they're afraid to protest either there. They're not afraid to have this amp up a little bit.   Bryan Strawser: Should point out that the current president, who's been president for 25 years and will be president until at least 2023, he got into this office having previously been the mayor of Istanbul.   Bray Wheeler: Yes.   Bryan Strawser: That was his launching pad to the presidency and a national scale [inaudible 00:22:04]. Yet now he's saying that the mayor is just like a piece of shop window decoration. That was his statement yesterday.   Jenn Otremba: Well, I mean of course he is.   Bryan Strawser: Yeah, he's minimizing-   Jenn Otremba: Right.   Bryan Strawser: ... the role of mayor of Istanbul.   Jenn Otremba: Absolutely, yeah.   Bryan Strawser: He did congratulate him on Twitter though.   Bray Wheeler: Well, that's generous. While he may undercut him.   Jenn Otremba: Yeah.   Bryan Strawser: From a business standpoint, lots of American businesses, lots of global businesses operate in Istanbul. I mean, our previous employer did. We dealt with a number of issues in Istanbul that went on over the years, mostly related to protests and disruption. Can't think of any instance involving violence or ...   Bray Wheeler: No, there was some terrorism stuff. That's some years back, kind of as Syria was really ramping up,-   Jenn Otremba: Right.   Bray Wheeler: ... and kind of some of those connections.   Jenn Otremba: Well, we certainly have extensive experience dealing with world protests and what happens to corporations-   Bryan Strawser: Right.   Jenn Otremba: ... in those events.   Bryan Strawser: So Turkey, we view that this is one we need to watch. This is the longterm piece here to watch. Because at some point, there's going to be some kind of transition, right?   Bray Wheeler: Yeah.   Bryan Strawser: I mean, the current president isn't going to live or serve for forever.   Jenn Otremba: No.   Bray Wheeler: No, and definitely he's facing some pretty tough challenges with his economy, and things like that too. This is the most pressure, kind of non-violence, non-full-out protest, pressure that he's felt. That really throughout the country, people are feeling a little bit uncertain as to the direction he's taking them in. So he's going to have to make some choices.   Bryan Strawser: Headwinds are significant.   Bray Wheeler: Yes.   Jenn Otremba: Yes, they are.   Bryan Strawser: Well, that's it for this newsy edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast. Catch our other episode in a few days, where we'll be talking more in-depth about the protest movement in Hong Kong and what that means for global and U.S. businesses that are operating in Hong Kong and what those longterm impacts might be.   Bryan Strawser: Look forward to having you on the next episode. Thanks.  

Over the past several weeks, Hong Kong has been the site of some of the largest protests we've seen in history - by some accounts, over two million people took to the streets to protest Hong Kong's proposed new extradition statutes. Following the protests, the current Chief Executive of Hong Kong temporarily suspended the bills but has not yet withdrawn them from consideration. In this episode of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast, Bryghtpath Principal & CEO Bryan Strawser, Senior Consultant Jennifer Otremba, and Consultant Bray Wheeler discuss the current situation in Hong Kong. What should companies do in response to the current situation? What might the future hold? How did we wind up in this situation, to begin with, anyway? Topics discussed include crisis management, business continuity, alternate workspaces, geographical shifting of work, physical security, global intelligence, and preparedness measures organizations should continue that operate in Hong Kong. //static.leadpages.net/leadboxes/current/embed.js Episode Transcript Bryan Strawser: Hello and welcome back to the Managing Uncertainty Podcast. This is Bryan Strawser, principal and CEO at Bryghtpath, and joining me for today's episode about Hong Kong and what's going on in the special administrative region of Hong Kong is...   Jenn Otremba: Hi, this is Jenn Otremba, senior consultant at Bryghtpath.   Bray Wheeler: Hi, this is Bray Wheeler, consultant at Bryghtpath.   Bryan Strawser: So this is our deep dive episode where we're going to get into a topic and talk about kind of its impact on business, and some processes and things that you should be thinking about. And we're going to focus on the current situation in Hong Kong where if you've been paying attention, there have been protests like they have not seen protest before going on in Hong Kong.   Bryan Strawser: These protests are targeted against a proposed bill which has now been suspended, but not withdrawn. This bill would have allowed the extradition of Hong Kong citizens to countries that Hong Kong does not have an extradition treaty with. That's a really fancy way of saying that China would be able to charge Hong Kong citizens with a crime under Chinese law, and then have Hong Kong export Hong Kong citizens to mainland China for trial. Why is that a problem?   Bray Wheeler: Well I think the big thing for Hong Kong is the fact that they enjoy some pretty good autonomy from China in terms of their control. And Hong Kong citizens are pretty passionate about that fact and-   Bryan Strawser: They like their independence.   Bray Wheeler: They like their independence. They like being different. And I think for them it's a little bit of a easy backdoor for China to be able to get in there and grab protest leaders, political opponents, folks who speak ill of China. Citizens of Hong Kong, that's their fear, is that it's not just as simple as it's made out to be, that it really gives China a lot of opportunity to go in and nab people and bring them out.   Bryan Strawser: So I think we should probably talk just a little bit about Hong Kong's unique status in the the world of China. Hong Kong was a British colony, but under treaty signed many, many, many years ago, it was given up in 1997 to China. So the British flag was lowered, the last governor general left, and Hong Kong became the special administrative region of China along with Macau, which did this I believe two years later. It's a former Portuguese colony, now also it's own zone in China.   Bryan Strawser: But as a part of the treaty, China promised to respect the Hong Kong Basic Law, the Constitution and statutes that control Hong Kong. And they didn't really meddle too much in Hong Kong except for an attempt, I think it was 2003 or 2004, where they tried to extend through statute their national security apparatus. And the Hong Kong citizens were like, no. And they voted it down. Or maybe it was withdrawn. I don't know the specifics. But this has really been their first direct attempt in quite a while to interfere with the internal operations of Hong Kong. Despite the fact the Chinese have a military base right on the harbor, but they don't really do much other than fly flags and drive tanks around and stuff.   Jenn Otremba: They don't do much yet.   Bryan Strawser: Yet. So the law. As the law's proposed, and they head towards debate, these protests were quite significant. I mean Bray, hundreds of thousands and millions of people, right?   Bray Wheeler: It is two million, were some of the estimates.   Bryan Strawser: I think the last protest, yeah, north of two million. Which by the way, that's a quarter, 20 or 25%, of the total population of Hong Kong. It's just massive.   Bray Wheeler: Yeah, they were saying this was the biggest percentage of protesters to a population that has ever occurred, that they think on-   Bryan Strawser: It's nuts.   Jenn Otremba: And so far nonviolent for the most part, right?   Bryan Strawser: Yes.   Bray Wheeler: Yeah. There was-   Jenn Otremba: Certainly disruptive, but-   Bray Wheeler: ... some skirmishes. I believe there reports of tear gas and some confrontation with Hong Kong police as kind of in the early stages of the protest. But the last few days or last kind of segments of the protest has been fairly peaceful considering you have millions of people out on the streets.   Bryan Strawser: So one interesting aspect of all this was the business community plays a pretty significant role in the governance of Hong Kong. Their legislature in Hong Kong has a really unique relationship with the business community in two ways. The business community controls about a third of the legislature directly just through the way that representation is gained in Hong Kong.   Bryan Strawser: But also there's a couple large individuals and companies that control a significant portion of Hong Kong infrastructure like water, and sewer, and things that have been privatized that are just very different than how we think of them in the US. So they kind of have a very strong influence on the government that isn't the way we think of business influence on government in the West.   Bray Wheeler: I think one controls grocery stores, like all the grocery stores in Hong Kong.   Bryan Strawser: I believe that's correct. Yeah.   Jenn Otremba: Really? I didn't know that.   Bray Wheeler: Yeah, there's kind of a titan of industry for each segment of Hong Kong, so to speak. And so they have some influence.   Bryan Strawser: So there's a pretty insightful article in the New York Times from June 20th, so about four days ago, that says that the Chinese Government's headquarter in Hong Kong was the home of a meeting about six weeks ago where the Chinese government summoned the 200 most powerful business leaders and told them that if you have worries about this bill, keep them to yourself.   Bray Wheeler: Which they would.   Jenn Otremba: It would be in their best interest, I think.   Bryan Strawser: So I think they're a little scared, right? I mean they-   Jenn Otremba: It's a threat is what it is.   Bryan Strawser: It seems like a not veiled threat.   Bray Wheeler: Well, based on everything that China's been doing over the last few years at least of corruption hunting within China among their business community and their political leaders. Yeah. That's not such a subtle threat, that's a, this is happening and keep quiet and you'll enjoy your position of power in Hong Kong.   Jenn Otremba: Right.   Bryan Strawser: The business community's concern began back in March as this bill was initially being discussed when the US Chamber of Commerce said that it had serious concerns about the bill that would reduce the appeal of Hong Kong to international companies considering Hong Kong as a base for regional and international operations.   Bryan Strawser: By May 17th, is when this 200 person-ish meeting was held at the Chinese government headquarters in Hong Kong. And then, two of the senior officials in the Chinese Communist Party, Han Zheng and Wang Yang spoke publicly in Hong Kong in support of the bill which was considered highly unusual for that kind of direct influence on internal Hong Kong legislation.   Bray Wheeler: But I think that's part of the Hong Kong protestors big worry here too is not only is this bill allows China to just come in and, they think, snatch folks right out of the country and extradite them, and then charge them, it's also the influence that China is overtly having with this bill. And that's always been part of their worry is that direct open advocacy by China in Hong Kong.   Bryan Strawser: And we might use the term snatch, but really we're talking here, this would all be done through the veil of-   Bray Wheeler: Right.   Bryan Strawser: ... legitimacy through the courts, right? They would charge somebody. China has very broad police power inside of China in terms of what their criminal law code defines. I mean political corruption, for example, is a death penalty offense in China. Whereas, we don't even arrest people for that here in the US, I think.   Jenn Otremba: No.   Bryan Strawser: But what this would allow, what the bill would allow the Chinese government to do is indict through their process, charge somebody with a crime in mainland China, and then using the Hong Kong courts, force Hong Kong to extradite them to China for trial. Because it would just be an extradition, right? So that's where the fear comes from. If you're not going to follow our direction, we'll just charge you and bring you to China where you might wind up with a bullet in the back of your head.   Jenn Otremba: Yeah.   Bryan Strawser: Or however they're executing people nowadays.   Jenn Otremba: Which is certainly concerning for the citizens. But, what about the expats that are United States citizens working in Hong Kong?   Bryan Strawser: Right. And they're obviously subject to Hong Kong law-   Jenn Otremba: Right. Of course.   Bryan Strawser: ... that's the way wait works, but could China charge them and extradite them because they were in Hong Kong?   Jenn Otremba: I think according to this new law they could. Right?   Bray Wheeler: Right, right.   Bryan Strawser: So the business impact. So it looks like the first major protest was on June 9th. There were hundreds of thousands of people that filled the streets in Hong Kong, and that's when the business impact started coming. The next day, June 10th, and again I'm referring to the New York Times article from June 20th, a pro-Beijing lawmaker, Abraham Shek, who also is a director of a company called Goldin Financial. They're a major real estate developer in Hong Kong.   Bryan Strawser: They convened a board meeting. And Goldin Financial was on the verge of completing and closing a property deal worth $1.4 billion where they were going to buy and develop a portion of the old airport in Hong Kong, which has been replaced by the new airport. And their board walked away from the deal. They broke the deal. They gave up a $3.2 million penalty. And their public statement was the social contradiction and economic instability in Hong Kong makes it impossible for us to move forward with this real estate deal.   Bray Wheeler: That's the real time implications of not only this deal, but the pressure that they're starting to see in the manifestation of Hong Kong citizens kind of opposing us.   Jenn Otremba: That's a pretty significant financial impact for the community.   Bryan Strawser: So that was kind of the first brick that came out of the wall in the business community. The bigger move happened a few days later when they had protesters that surrounded the Legislative Council buildings. So that's the legislature for Hong Kong. And the protesters kept lawmakers from debating the bill. Because of their presence, there was tear gas and rubber bullets fired by law enforcement. That's rare in Hong Kong.   Bryan Strawser: And this is right in the business district. So the business folks were watching this happen through their skyscraper windows down below. And that's when the squirming started in the business world. There was another billion dollar property deal that was canceled, or I guess I should say postponed. The company refused to comment on that. And, there there seemed to be money movement out of Hong Kong by panicked investors. Which Hong Kong being the finance center it is, that's never what they want to see happen there. And then on June 15th is when the bill was postponed by the Chief Executive, Carrie Lam.   Bray Wheeler: Well, for the business community to delay an investment, they're facing some competition in Asia Pacific, especially from Singapore, I think the article referenced that too. But Singapore is becoming a pretty significant hub for global business and global investing.   Bryan Strawser: Correct.   Bray Wheeler: And to watch that stuff walk out of Hong Kong and into Singapore, that's super concerning for the business community.   Jenn Otremba: Right. I mean if it becomes both easier legally and financially better for corporations, that's...   Bryan Strawser: There was also some noise around the, I mean there's a lot of noise about this in the United States, but one interesting move that the Democrats in the United States House considered... Speaker Pelosi commented that perhaps it's time to revisit our statutory relationship with Hong Kong. Because if China is going to exert influence like this, perhaps we should treat Hong Kong not as a separate legal entity, international entity, but we should treat it as part of China if that's the way that they're going to approach...   Bryan Strawser: And what that really means, just if you take in the context of the trade war, we have tariffs currently on Chinese manufactured goods that are shipped out of China. That tariff is 25%. So it's pretty significant. There's no tariff on Hong Kong goods coming in. If we were to treat Hong Kong like China, then we would require tariffs on Hong Kong shipments the way that we do on China shipments, and that would have a pretty significant impact on the Hong Kong economy, and our relationship with businesses.   Bryan Strawser: And let's face it, most American companies, when they enter Asia, they start with Hong Kong. That's their base of operations. That's what we did at our previous employer, right? We ran stuff out of Hong Kong for all of Asia, even though where our bodies were and where the work was being done was in mainland China.   Bryan Strawser: So I think it for businesses this, depending upon the directions that this goes, and like most things China does, it will probably take decades for them to get to where they're going. But when they get to where they're going, it's not going to look like what it does today.   Jenn Otremba: Yeah. I'm not going to be as surprised if we start seeing businesses finding a new home for their expats. Maybe Singapore is the answer, but certainly not for the headquarters like a lot of companies have.   Bryan Strawser: Right. Singapore's not that far away by air.   Bray Wheeler: No.   Bryan Strawser: It's just not as convenient as Hong Kong.   Jenn Otremba: Right.   Bray Wheeler: It's not as close to China where stuff was getting produced. And adding, just from a global standpoint, even if the US was to walk away or reconsider how they view them, other countries are going to do the same. Especially those that are close kind of partners, United Kingdom, Australia, those other partners because it's been that kind of easy entry point, that easy British entry point into Asia. We reevaluate and we find a different one. Or stuff gets shifted.   Bryan Strawser: For a lot of companies, particularly US companies, their large presence manufacturing, or sourcing, inspection for [inaudible] goods and stuff is really managed out of Shenzhen because it's a special economic zone. There's some tax benefits to that. There's a large and available labor supply that's skilled and talented and speaks English in a lot of cases. The expats though, all live in Hong Kong, and they commute to Shenzhen which is a 30 to 45 minute drive depending upon where in Shenzhen that you're going from Hong Kong.   Bryan Strawser: And if you go there and sit the border crossing and watch, there's a ton of people going north in the morning and a ton of people coming back south at the end of the day. So yeah, I think this is, as you say, about expats, I think this would have an impact over time on what that starts to look like. So what should companies do now that we've talked a little bit about the context of what's happened.   Jenn Otremba: Yeah, the proactive right now, right? We talked a little bit earlier before we started the podcast on business continuity plans, right Bray?   Bray Wheeler: Really re-evaluating what you have in place right now for both BC, and even into that crisis management kind of communication piece. Just being able to know what's going on, what is the business feeling, what are your employees feeling, your expats. All those pieces and understanding kind of where you're at right now so that you can start reevaluating what might we need to shift, what do we need to update, are their contact lists? I mean, as granular as that. Do we need to shift our processes just enough that we can respond appropriately to help? Then shifting into that protection and that security for employees and expats and things like that, facilities.   Jenn Otremba: Yeah. That proactive approach to how do we prepare for if this happens, if it doesn't happen, and all the time in between. I think you kind of nailed on it with communicating. This is everywhere, at least in the United States right now. All over the news. So how are we communicating to our employees here in the United States, and our expats that are working in countries throughout the world? And what that does that look like?   Bray Wheeler: One, I think it gets back to the kind of mantra that we've used with some of our clients, and I certainly like, I probably say way too much, but it's the overrespond, don't overreact. So this isn't an overreaction point because Hong Kong will likely continue to operate as Hong Kong for quite a while.   Jenn Otremba: Right. It's going to be awhile I think.   Bray Wheeler: But, it's worth taking this as an opportunity to say, you know what, what are our business processes, what are our continuity plans, what are our security policies for Hong Kong. Or even internationally, just looking at it from a broad scale of if this were to happen somewhere else, or have we updated those in the last six months or a year?   Jenn Otremba: Yeah. Well, and then response to some of the protests. We've certainly seen protests around the world that had a serious effect on how our businesses are able to operate, and what that looks like. So I think it's a good time, like you said, to really evaluate the things like what do your protests protocols look like? What are you telling your employees to do if this happens? Not just in China, but anywhere.   Bray Wheeler: Because you can't assume it's going to be as peaceful as it has been. You never know. It only takes, and we saw that play out, Arab Spring.   Jenn Otremba: That's what I was thinking.   Bray Wheeler: It only takes little moments. The shop cart vendor to get killed, whether purposely or accidentally, those little moments for this to kind of go boom. And Hong Kong's not very big.   Jenn Otremba: Right.   Bryan Strawser: Well then what happens, I mean if your back is up against the wall, which I think a lot of folks in Hong Kong might be thinking that that's what this is really going to be like, what's there to lose in the escalating the conflict? And so what does that mean for businesses that are there? I mean in terms of, we've talked about security posture a little bit, and we've talked about the continuity planning of what if you can't use your main facility, what if you can't get to work because of the protests? What if your technology capabilities are severed and you lose network or internet connectivity? I think those are real risks that companies in Hong Kong should be thinking about. And then on top of that, I would throw just the, we've talked about expats, but I think just business travel.   Jenn Otremba: Absolutely.   Bryan Strawser: Folks who go to Hong Kong for a lot of reasons. Hong Kong is a intersection point for a lot of folks going to other places nearby on short haul flights because it's easy to get in and out of the new airport. I say new, it's been there almost 25 years. But, to the airport to get to China and elsewhere for your travel. So we got a lot of folks transiting the airport, and although the airport's not downtown, I mean who knows where some of the risk goes with all of this. I think those are all challenges the companies should be thinking about.   Bryan Strawser: And then where do you go to get info? I think we talked about this on our Facebook Live last week, we were talking about Iran, but where do you go to get information so that you understand what's really happening? The good news about Hong Kong, I think there's good mainstream media reporting, right? We've used a Wall Street Journal article and a New York Times article for this particular podcast episode in terms of prep. But Bray, where else could folks go to learn more?   Bray Wheeler: Yeah. I think for Hong Kong, to your point, they enjoy some freedoms of the press that press in China don't necessarily have. So there's a lot of visibility there that you can't find with other conflicts that Hong Kong, and because of its stature and its history, there's a lot of connection there back to United Kingdom media, US media, other international kind of news outlets.   Bray Wheeler: I think the other places, we certainly have used a lot of different vendors and things like that in the past. [IS WES 00:21:48] and their partnership with Control Risks. A lot of companies use them for different travel and security and things like that. They're going to have a bead on stuff. There's other companies. Who else? Worldcue also has some. So there's a lot of different vendors out there that will give you some of that. You're going to pay for the customization for some of that, but there's a lot of open source.   Bray Wheeler: I think the other piece to the advantage of Hong Kong is to be able to talk to your employees, and your expats, and your offices in Hong Kong and have those conversations with them. What are they hearing? What's being talked about there? What are they seeing on the ground? Because that's going to be more valuable to you as a business than potentially what a vendor or the news is going to say. Because they're able to spell out, hey, this is impacting the street that our stuff goes down, or this is the main road that everybody takes to get to the office, and the protesters are camped out on it right now. And that arms you with some better decision making. So I think it's not only looking at outside sources, but really having those internal conversations and using your folks on the ground.   Jenn Otremba: That, and I think developing partnerships with other companies in the area. I think once things really start happening, if they do, that's not the time to be figuring this out. Developing those partnerships now is really important. Joe up the street's going to know something that you don't know, and continuing having those conversations.   Bryan Strawser: They're the best sources of information-   Jenn Otremba: Absolutely.   Bryan Strawser: ... from my perspective. And even if you're competitors, I think you're not talking about competitive information, you're talking about protecting your people and protecting your assets. And I think you're going to find that most companies are open to sharing information about what they know in exchange for what you know about what's happening on the ground.   Jenn Otremba: Particularly around safety, security.   Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Well, we saw that with, I know we keep referencing Arab Spring, and I don't think we're calling this the next Arab Spring, but the size of those protests, and then kind of the complexities of those protests in Hong Kong can very well get there if it continues. We saw that with trying to get folks out and joining with other companies to say, "Hey, we got a flight out. We got rum. Get your folks there."   Bryan Strawser: Bill me.   Jenn Otremba: Well, I think-   Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bill me later.   Jenn Otremba: ... hitting on it because that's the situation when I think all three of us were working at the same organization at the time dealing with that specific situation. So that was scary for everyone involved. And like you said, it's not that yet, but doesn't mean that that couldn't become that.   Bryan Strawser: I think this protest is, at least the big two over the weekends, a few weeks back when the bill got pulled, and they protested the next day as well, the one that had two million, they estimated it as two million folks, I think that's much larger than anything we saw during Arab Spring. I mean even the strongest days of protest at Tahrir square in Cairo, I think there was a few hundred thousand people, if that. I guess I don't remember. It was 2011, right?   Jenn Otremba: Yeah.   Bryan Strawser: 2012.   Jenn Otremba: But you remember we had to make some very, very quick decisions, and we had to hold our executives to the point where we needed them to help us make those decisions so that we could execute.   Bray Wheeler: Yeah. I think that the characteristics of the Arab Spring protests necessitated quick decisive action on some things, and we had to make some fast choices, and we had to take what could be considered some extreme steps to protect the offices and the employees and things like that. I think with Hong Kong, we have the benefit of a little bit of the size and scale of it has been described unlike the protest size we've seen in the past. So there is certainly complexities there. I think the advantage is nobody's trying to topple anything yet.   Jenn Otremba: Yet.   Bray Wheeler: So that it's a maintaining of the status quo, or maintaining of their sense of independence, and so they have something to be gained by not taking extreme steps in terms of kind of burning the place down.   Jenn Otremba: Right. And I think from a business perspective, we had a lot of lessons learned out of previous incidents so we can take those lessons, and really, we have time here to talk through plans to develop radar screens so that we can monitor the situation-   Bryan Strawser: And see what's coming.   Jenn Otremba: Absolutely.   Bryan Strawser: I mean I think this is a little different from Arab Spring in terms of kind of Bray's point. I don't think the end game here is going to look like it did in Morocco, and Egypt, and Bahrain, and some of the places we were dealing with back during Arab Spring.   Jenn Otremba: I hope not.   Bryan Strawser: Yeah, I mean I don't think it's going to be the it's going to get so violent that you got to get everybody out of there. I mean that would just be like civil war in Hong Kong-   Jenn Otremba: It would.   Bryan Strawser: ... for you to get to that compared to what I think we're going to see is just peaceful democratic protest. It's just going to be disruptive, and we don't know the end game of what this means. Does it topple the Chief Executive in Hong Kong?Does she resign over time? This was her bill. Does the head of the security bureau leave? Because he's the one that wrote the bill and brought the bill to the Council. But I don't think we're going to see the collapse of government like we did in Egypt, for example, where the whole thing went down with Mubarak, and the military engaged in a coup in order to take control. I don't think we're going to see that in Hong Kong.   Bryan Strawser: Because I mean one of the biggest lessons learned for me out of Arab Spring was just how fast it moved Cairo, or Egypt I should say, to where the US Embassy staff couldn't even get back to the embassy. Right. They were managing their own crisis situation from a security perspective from their condos a few miles from the embassy. I mean it was [inaudible] from the State Department on this was just nuts. But nobody saw it moving that fast. And we encountered the same thing as we were dealing with our former employer and the things we needed to do there.   Jenn Otremba: I think that one big lesson learned, I think that I kind of took away from that experience too is that because it happens so quickly, I think you couldn't expect help from the United States Government in those situations. We had to act much quicker. And again, I don't think that the protests are going to be as violent here. And I don't think that the end game is going to be the same. But some similarities as far as the disruption could be that that we can no longer have offices in a certain area of the city or things like that. And we can't expect help from external sources. We may have to do it ourselves. So what does that look like if it were to come to that?   Bray Wheeler: Hopefully touch one last time on kind of the differences here, is that even law enforcement here, and those partnerships that companies and businesses kind of appreciate, I think in Hong Kong with police and law enforcement, they're not defending an individual. As we were seeing in Arab Spring, we often see in some of these other kind of unrest situations, they're really trying to control the state. It's a police action similar to what we see in the United States with protests and things like that.   Bryan Strawser: They're following the rule of law.   Bray Wheeler: They're trying to enforce the law and that's all. As opposed-   Bryan Strawser: Yeah, it's a great comparison because what we saw in Cairo was that the police were defending Mubarak until the coup.   Bray Wheeler: Till the tide turned.   Bryan Strawser: Until the tide turned.   Jenn Otremba: Yeah.   Bray Wheeler: And I think that's Hong Kong citizens' greatest fear eventually is that that independence that the police-   Bryan Strawser: That's a great point.   Bray Wheeler: ... present will shift at some point.   Bryan Strawser: And they've already expressed this fear because I think a lot of the protesters were unhappy with the police response to the protests over the prior weekend. They thought there were challenges in how the police responded.   Bray Wheeler: Well they're even starting to get nervous, the citizens are, of those elected officials and people that are in charge of the government, and how much influence and connection they have back to China. And I think that's just Hong Kong citizens are used to that degree of autonomy, and they're kind of begrudging acceptance of China's influence, or connection to China, that there they're really trying to hold the line. They're trying to hold the line against Chinese influence, and they're starting to see some of that deteriorate with the business community not speaking up early, or the heads of state and the political officials not kind of going to bat for them, that they're really taking it upon themselves.   Bray Wheeler: And I think that's, the long game here for them is to try to hold off China. And so that's where the uncertainty and that's where the complexity really kind of manifests. Is it going to turn tomorrow? Probably not. But eventually, it's going to get there. And so I think the business community and their employees and their expats have to start thinking about what does this look like? What does this look like 10 years from now? Does this change? But what can we do today to make sure that our operations continue? But what does this business look like going forward?   Bryan Strawser: Let's wrap this up by just talking about some particular triggers that might happen that would cause alarm. And I think one is that this bill comes back to life. Right now, it's suspended. It hasn't been withdrawn. Protesters asked that it be withdrawn. That didn't happen. Carrie Lam, the Chief Executive of Hong Kong suspended, meaning it's not going to be heard. But, she can just bring it back, it's my understanding, anytime she wants. And a future Chief Executive can do the same thing because the bill has not been withdrawn. So, in my mind, that's definitely a trigger that's going to mean more protest, more disruption, more unrest. What are some others that can happen?   Bray Wheeler: I think one of the things, kind of positive triggers perhaps, is the business community becoming a little bit more overt in their disagreement with the bill, and talking about it as such. And being a little bit, I say courageous, but more willing to speak out against it, or to detail out what the implications are, more so than they've already done. And especially in the future, if they do it kind of in advance of any protests, I think their voice carries a lot of weight as we've discussed.   Jenn Otremba: I think furthermore the citizens I really speaking up as well. So they're not going to sit back and just wait and see what happens. They're going to speak up and voice their concerns as well. And I think that's a very positive thing that's coming out of this.   Bryan Strawser: I think another trigger to watch forward to, it'll be a negative trigger, but it would be more direct action by China to interfere in the internal operations of Hong Kong. And I actually think that's going to happen. I think that's probably the longterm plan of some of this. But I think the more that you see more direct interaction by authorities in mainland China inside of Hong Kong. And the more challenging the security situation, the disruption on the ground is going to be.   Bray Wheeler: Well I think if they end up charging any of these kind of big business players from Hong Kong in China with corruption similar to what they've been doing with Chinese business leaders, if they somehow get to the point where we're going to charge somebody in Hong Kong for this to help justify, that's going to be a little bit of a bellwether and a trigger point.   Bray Wheeler: I also think just watching the protests, I don't think, to your point Jenn, I don't think the protests are going to go away. But how the protesters are protesting. If there's a change from kind of the peaceful kind of just mass collection of folks to make their point, because that seems to be enough for them right now, is to just show up in mass. If they start changing their tactics, this could take several different routes.   Bryan Strawser: So that's it for this edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast. Join us next week for two editions, our news and current events edition at the beginning of the week, and a deep dive into an interesting topic later in the week. Thanks for listening. We'll see you next week.  

In this episode of our BryghtCast edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast, Bryghtpath Principal & CEO Bryan Strawser, Senior Consultant Jenn Otremba, and Consultant Bray Wheeler take a look at three current risks and upcoming events: The continuing protests in Hong Kong - where, at the time of our recording of this episode, protestors had taken over Hong Kong's Legislative Assembly Building. They were later dispersed by police - but not before more than 500,000 protestors had taken to the streets. Recent aviation incidents in Minnesota and Texas - heightening the importance of ensuring your organization has an effective Aviation Response Plan. The wrongful death lawsuit filed by the parents of a homicide victim in Utah who made multiple reports with University Police and other officials about a man who ultimately was charged with her homicide. The incident highlights the importance of taking threats of violence seriously and the need for a robust, documented threat management process for companies and educational institutions. //static.leadpages.net/leadboxes/current/embed.js Episode Transcript Bryan Strawser: Hello, and welcome to the Managing Uncertainty Podcast. This is Bryan Strawser, Principal and CEO at Bryghtpath. And with me today is ... Jenn Otremba: Hi there, this is Jenn Otremba, Senior Consultant Bryghtpath. Bray Wheeler: Hi, this is Bray Wheeler, Consultant at Bryghtpath. Bryan Strawser: And this is our BryghtCast news episode for the week of July 1st, 2019. We're recording this on the morning of July 1st, though you won't hear it until a bit later this week. Bryan Strawser: So, what do we got to start off with on our three major events for the week? Bray Wheeler: This morning we're going to kick it off unfortunately with some aviation events that happened, book-ending the weekend here. Bray Wheeler: On Friday, here locally in Minnesota, a medevac helicopter crashed early in the morning on Friday on the Brainerd area of Minnesota, which is about two hours north of the Twin Cities. In that crash, both the pilots and the medevac nurse were killed. The medic on board sustained injuries and is expected to make a full recovery. That occurred over the weekend. Fortunate no patients were on board, but there was foggy weather. It was late in the morning. Bray Wheeler: Jenn, you have expertise on that one here as kind of an expert. But then the other incident that happened over the weekend was a plane crash in Dallas that killed all 10 on board. It sounded like it occurred on takeoff, veered into a hangar, and then unfortunately that caused the loss of life. Bray Wheeler: I think really where our focus is this morning is just on that aviation safety, companies having a plan, even if it's just, you're a small company and you travel via commercial flight, but those things are real and they're happening. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Jenn Otremba: Yeah. Jenn Otremba: So first of all, I mean this is heartbreaking for the aviation community. Specifically, rotary wing, because this really hits close to home here since it was one of our own here in North Memorial. And we don't know the cause of either of these accidents. And generally, we won't know until it could be a year from now before accident investigations come out. So it's absolutely heartbreaking. And I always think of, "Well, I wonder what happened? What would I have done in ... ?" Jenn Otremba: For those that don't know, I'm also a helicopter pilot for the Army National Guard, and I always think, "What happened?" What the pilot could have done or couldn't have done, or what they were going through, especially in those last moments before the crash. Like Bray said, in that particular instance, I know that the weather was really bad and it was early in the morning, and all of those things lead to, in my mind, a potentially bad situation. Jenn Otremba: Really, really heartbreaking for everyone involved with that. And the Dallas incident, of course that's not as local for us, but also obviously very heartbreaking. And as Bray said, the biggest thing for us here at Bryghtpath is what kind of plans are in place for these companies that own these aircraft? And what that looks like now, moving forward, and what it looked like beforehand. Bryan Strawser: There were a couple of things that came to mind for me about the North Memorial crash, the medical transport helicopter that crashed here in Minnesota, is that North Memorial had a previous crash, fortunately not fatal, three years ago in Alexandria, Minnesota. The pilots and the paramedic, and I believe there was a nurse on board, all survived. The medic though, in particular, had significant injuries in his ... I think he considers himself very lucky to have survived the accident. I think that came back as pilot error in the NTSB investigation, but it'll be months before we know anything about what happened in the north, or in this Bemidji ... Oh, I'm sorry, it wasn't Bemidji. It was Brainerd. Jenn Otremba: Brainerd. Bray Wheeler: Brainerd. Bryan Strawser: Brainerd accident that occurred. Bryan Strawser: The other thing that came to mind, and this applies to both, it's just, the three of us have been in roles where we've had some responsibility for aviation and response in the private sector. And we had to write some pretty extensive plans around how we would respond to an aviation incident, because our previous employer-owned and operated and leased aircraft. Sometimes with their own pilots and sometimes with contracted pilots, or contracted service to do that. But we still own responsibility for that, and I think as consultants we've seen companies with a lack of aviation planning, or have some really poor plans. Bryan Strawser: So maybe we talk just briefly about what we're really looking for here when we talk about aviation planning for a company. Bray Wheeler: When I think it's even one of those things where depending on the size of the company and what kind of flight operations you have, because of even smaller companies, we have a client that's not giant, but they still have pretty extensive air travel capabilities within their company. Bray Wheeler: I think it's really about, no matter the size of that, it's really having something in place or using existing plans. You have a place for loss of life, for a tragic situation, how are you communicating with families? How are you communicating with employees? Things like that are already in place, and then you just add on depending on what the size of your company is and what your capabilities are. What other plans do you need to put into place around decision making and notification? And just being able to kind of manage through it. Bryan Strawser: Yeah, family support is a big part of this, particularly if you're operating your own aircraft, I think. Bryan Strawser: Having a process in place to be able to notify family members of your employees or others that were on board the aircraft, that there had been an incident and that there were injuries or fatalities that occurred, I think is a critically important part of the plan. And understanding how you're going to maintain contact and support the family members through this. Bryan Strawser: I think there's a reputational aspect, too. And I thought about this with the North Memorial incident just being the second crash that they've had. And certainly there's going to be an investigation, and that investigation will take time to get to an answer. But the questions from the press are not going to stop. Jenn Otremba: And they're not going to wait for an answer that's clear cut either. Bryan Strawser: No, they're not. Why did this happen a second time? Jenn Otremba: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bryan Strawser: So, anything else on ... ? Jenn Otremba: I guess I would go one step further, and aside from having plans for our own or leased aircraft, we also have some experience with travel monitoring. Jenn Otremba: So, even if they're flying a commercial aircraft or another aircraft ... Bryan Strawser: Or traveling on a commercial aircraft. Jenn Otremba: Exactly. Yup. We have all experienced, specifically around executive monitoring and knowing where they're flying to, and where they're going. So we always knew where they were at. So if something were to happen, we could keep track of that as well. Bray Wheeler: When I think you mean to your point, just having the awareness to where your employees are going so that you're not just running your day-to-day operations, and all of a sudden there's a crash and it's like, "Oh, that's too bad." Bray Wheeler: We had two employees on that plane. And you're not reacting in real time to the knowledge that you're supposed to have and be able to make those decisions and jump on it early. Bray Wheeler: I mean, reputation aside, just doing right by the employees and their families. And having that available. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. Bryan Strawser: There's just a whole circle of communication around having things happen to your employees. Not only the communication to the family, which needs to be the paramount thing that happens, but there's also communication to coworkers and perhaps to the company at large. Because if you don't tell that story the way you want the story told, or the way that your employee wants the story told, they're going to get it from the press. Or they're going to get it from the rumor mill. And neither of those is a good look for your organization when you're in a crisis. Bryan Strawser: It needs to come from leadership and be communicated that way. Jenn Otremba: Right. Bryan Strawser: So, the second item of news that we're touching on today actually started early this morning, and that is more protests and disruption in Hong Kong over the extradition bill that has been under consideration there now for several weeks. Bryan Strawser: We didn't plan it this way, but today, July 1st, we released our podcast episode on what was going on in Hong Kong, and it's already out of date because of events that occurred early this morning. But the protestors, and I saw numbers 500 to 600,000, is that? Yeah. Bryan Strawser: So, up to 600,000 protesters, but they've gone a little farther this time. They have surrounded the legislative building, this is where Hong Kong's legislature meets. They got inside the building, they took over the legislative chamber. The last update we saw is that they were standing on top of lawmakers' desks and they were spray painting symbols and art inside the hall. And that's where things stand as of about 30 minutes ago. So it's quite a scene. Bryan Strawser: I mean, there's no way that law enforcement, even modern law enforcement in Hong Kong can contain 600,000 people. Jenn Otremba: Yeah. I was going to say, first of all ... Bryan Strawser: I mean, we couldn't do that here in the U.S. Jenn Otremba: Just think of that amount of ... Five to 600,000 people. I mean, what does that look like? That is unbelievable. Bryan Strawser: Right? Bray Wheeler: Well, I would actually argue that they probably weren't as prepared as they probably should have been for this one. Because what's unique about this protest today, too, is it's July 1st, which is the anniversary of the transition from Britain to China. Bryan Strawser: Oh, you're right. Jenn Otremba: Yes. Bray Wheeler: And so typically there's always peaceful protests that are going on. And for the most part it sounds like these continue to be peaceful, but with all of the protests over the last couple of weeks, probably should've been a little bit more prepared or amped up to know, because it's pretty predictable in terms of what they're doing. The size is pretty unique. Bray Wheeler: I think there was a graphic somebody had that had different estimates from whether you're an organizer, or government official, or media on site. There's only been a couple of other instances where the numbers have reached somewhere in this realm. Otherwise, they've been pretty smaller, but they happen every year. But it's probably one of those things where certain locations, certainly parliament, probably should've been a little bit more isolated than it was. Jenn Otremba: And I think too, thinking of some of the different organizations that we've worked with throughout the years and what that looks like when protesters get into the building and what ... How do you manage through that once they're already in the building? Jenn Otremba: I know for us it's always better to make sure security is doing their job and keeping the protestors peacefully outside of the premises of the building. But what happens when they get into that building? And how do you peacefully remove them from the building? And what that can look like, because that can go south very, very quickly as we've seen in the past, too. Bryan Strawser: So I think the protesters are demanding the resignation of Hong Kong's Chief Executive, right? Carrie ... Bray Wheeler: Carrie Lam. Bryan Strawser: Carrie Lam. They're demanding her resignation. She's been in office for some time, and she spent her whole career in the Hong Kong Civil Service, but no one arises to be the Chief Executive of Hong Kong without the blessing of China. So clearly she has China's support at least going into the position. I'm not sure how confident they're feeling in her leadership at this point. It's hard to say. That's a black box in terms of what we know, or at least from what we understand. Bray Wheeler: She was at least an acceptable choice. Bryan Strawser: At the time. Bray Wheeler: At the time. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. I'm really kind of curious where that goes. Bryan Strawser: So, the questions here for business are kind of the same as what we talk about in our long-form podcast today, which is, if you're in Hong Kong or you travel through Hong Kong and you're not monitoring what's going on, you're behind. They're a pretty significant set of disruption going on there, and I don't see it going away. Bryan Strawser: And if the Chinese government response, it's going to be the fascinating part of this because they've really not meddled in Hong Kong in this way before. I mean we've talked a little bit about that before, that pushing this kind of legislation is a new move for them, but they've never meddled in Hong Kong in terms of using force. Bray Wheeler: Correct. Yeah. I think it's one of those things where this is starting to probably become a little bit more real. And certainly this is, we're saying that in the context of the current situation. Who knows, this might calm down in a couple of months and resolve itself a little bit, but I think there is that simmering tension. And especially with broader relationship discussions between the international community in China and democracy at large, and where that's going globally, the protesters are making a stand and they're using timing of both the legislation and the anniversary of the date to really gain some momentum and push the issue, and push it more international than just the local, "Oh, they're protesting again. It's on July 1st." Bray Wheeler: It's a little bit more this time. Jenn Otremba: Seems to be fairly effective so far, I think. Bray Wheeler: They seem to be getting their point across. Jenn Otremba: Yeah. Bryan Strawser: Definitely have gotten their point across. Jenn Otremba: Yeah. Now what happens with that is going to be the interesting part of it, I think. Bryan Strawser: I suspect we'll see developments later this week. Bray Wheeler: It'll be interesting to see how the international community responds back into this, too. They've been relatively quiet- Bryan Strawser: And when did they start speaking out? Bray Wheeler: ... in the conversation. When do they start speaking out? When do they start pushing some different narratives that hold China back, or perhaps even embolden China with what they're doing? I think it's just a matter of time, and see where that angle takes the conversation. Jenn Otremba: I think we'll be talking about this again next week. Bryan Strawser: No doubt. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. So it appears that it was a smaller group that came into the legislative assembly building, but they broke glass doors, removed metal bars, defaced portraits of previous Chief Executives and Presidents of the chamber. So, interesting. Bryan Strawser: Let's move on then to our last story of the day. Jenn Otremba: Yeah, let's talk about that. Jenn Otremba: The last story of the day, just wanted to bring this up because last week some additional news has come out about university student in Utah who was involved with her ex-boyfriend who had killed her and himself, and why this is extremely tragic and a big deal. The biggest part of the news lately is that the parents have come out and sued the university. Jenn Otremba: Now in the past, many of these things have come out. There have been reputational issues. There are some demands for if something happened to a student that the school would take some kind of responsibility for that. Jenn Otremba: But it's becoming more and more common that that responsibility is turning into a monetary responsibility for universities, for businesses, for corporations, for states to have some major responsibility here with these violent cases. Jenn Otremba: And so I think the latest I saw was this, parents were suing the school for $56 million lawsuits against the school. Bray Wheeler: That's a big chunk of money. Bryan Strawser: So in the lawsuit, the thing that stood out to me, I didn't read the lawsuit, but the news coverage surrounding the lawsuit, she had reported to the university police multiple times about this guy's threatening actions. Was like 20 some times? Jenn Otremba: Yeah, allegedly. I've seen a few different reports as to what they're saying, but allegedly there has been several reports prior to the incident occurring itself where she has brought forth some concerning behavior. Leakage, we call it. And workplace violence. Bryan Strawser: There's always leakage. Jenn Otremba: There's always leakage. Of very threatening behavior, controlling behavior, possessive behavior, manipulative. Very, very concerning behavior that definitely pointed towards some kind of violent behavior that would come out of this. Jenn Otremba: And unfortunately, I don't know specifics around what the school had done or what actions the school had done, but the parents feel that wasn't enough, clearly. And we'll see I guess, where this one goes. When the facts come out. Bryan Strawser: I mean from having read the news coverage, I don't think the university did much at all around this. Jenn Otremba: It does not sound like it. Bryan Strawser: But of course we're getting one side of the story. The university will certainly have its chance in court or elsewhere to explain the case. Suspect this never gets to trial. Jenn Otremba: Yeah. They're saying no investigation at all occurred. No plans developed or implemented for her sake, or her safety, or those around her either, which is also concerning. Bryan Strawser: I'm a little flabbergasted by this one. Bryan Strawser: If we take the parents' story at face value, and I'm not saying that that is the hundred percent of the facts here, but universities have pretty clear regulatory and legal requirements to take action when there is a credible threat, to communicate to the broader campus community. And here I'm speaking about the requirements under the Clery Act, where they have to send this communication, either an imminent, I forget the specific term, but there's the imminent notice, emergency notification that has to go out if there's a credible threat. And then there's a duty to warn requirement that can be done in a less serious situation. But it doesn't appear that either of those were done. Bryan Strawser: Of course we don't know for sure what was communicated. Jenn Otremba: I mean, there's also the general duty clause under OSHA as well. Bryan Strawser: Under OSHA guidelines. Right. Jenn Otremba: So, even if those other things didn't exist, OSHA is always going to be in existence there with that. Bryan Strawser: Right. Bryan Strawser: I mean, I was Chief Security Officer for a university system that operated throughout North America, and in several states. Our internal requirements around this would have dictated that the action be taken and an investigation be conducted and a, if appropriate, a mitigation plan be put into place to ensure her safety and the safety of those around her. And I think that's the lesson here for a business or a university is, you have to take this stuff seriously. You need to believe the alleged victim here in this case and take action. Bray Wheeler: Is it enough to do just a threat assessment? Jenn Otremba: Well, I think it's all going to be dependent on what the facts are that come out of any kind of investigation. But from what I can see, at least what the initial reporting is, that there was no investigation conducted at all. So, in the event of nothing, I mean, I can't tell you if it's going to be enough, because we don't know what would have come out in that investigation. Jenn Otremba: I think you were doing, Bray, a little bit further digging, and didn't you find some concerning information that when they were dating and she found out he was actually lying to her about some pretty significant things? Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Well, according to a couple of the reports, really what precipitated the fall out between the two of them was, she allegedly broke up with him in October of last year after she found out that he had lied about his name, his age, and his status as a sex offender. So it turns out he's, according to some of these reports, he's actually 37 and she was 21 at the time that she was killed. So, it's pretty big. That's a pretty big age gap. Jenn Otremba: Now, I didn't see. Was he a student with her? Bray Wheeler: That I didn't see. Jenn Otremba: I haven't seen that on anywhere either. Bryan Strawser: I don't believe so. Jenn Otremba: And that could be why the university chose to not do any further action, because if he wasn't a student there, they may have been limited what they could have done, but they could have done some information sharing with local law enforcement as well. Jenn Otremba: So, there's always something that can be done, but they may have not taken the action that the parents felt that they should have because he wasn't in fact a student there. If that is the case, I don't know. Bryan Strawser: My understanding is that the university had a university police department. So I think they probably had more jurisdiction than we would typically see. Jenn Otremba: Sure. Bryan Strawser: Right? States treats this differently. Here in Minnesota, private schools don't have law enforcement and really only the University of Minnesota has campus police. But in Massachusetts, where I lived for a decade, everybody's got cops. Bryan Strawser: Private, public. Everyone's got their own department. And I think this was Utah? Jenn Otremba: Yes. Yup. Bray Wheeler: Utah. Bray Wheeler: One, it sounds like, not only did she go to university police, she also went to housing. The university housing- Bryan Strawser: Oh, interesting. Jenn Otremba: Sure. Bray Wheeler: ... and said, "I have this going on." Bryan Strawser: "I don't feel safe here in the dorm." Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bryan Strawser: Her housing unit. Jenn Otremba: I mean, certainly regardless of the investigation, there could've been some actions put in place to help her and those around her feel safe with some safety planning for her. And, or classrooms that she is going in and out of, and the housing area that she's living in. There certainly could have been some safety precautions taken. I don't know if those were taken or not. They obviously didn't meet the standard of what the parents were expecting. Jenn Otremba: I don't know beyond that what was done, but I think like you said Bryan, this is definitely a lesson for all organizations to really take these things seriously and understand. Even if the university police didn't help, there are other information sharing jurisdictions out there that could probably step in, and keep owning your safety. Keep pushing that till you get the help that you need as well. Bryan Strawser: I mean, I feel like this is something we always keep coming back to, and that is that in the moment making the right decision. That when this threat was brought up and her safety concerns were brought up, we should believe her in the things that she's saying, pending investigation. And we should take the right action. Bryan Strawser: I mean, it kind of reminds me of the Leslie Moonves situation at CBS, where people came forward and credibly accused him of all kinds of sexual harassment and some violent-ish behavior. And the board, in the first accusation, the board of CBS just brush it off. They don't conduct a thorough investigation. They kind of half-ass it. And then when more allegations came out, they hired a different law firm to investigate it. And lo and behold, 25 years of crap comes out about the guy, right? Bryan Strawser: So again, I think from a leadership standpoint, it's about making the right decision in the moment when it's happening. And that doesn't appear to have happened here, but we'll find out. Jenn Otremba: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Yup, we will. Bray Wheeler: One, and I think, to that point, in your earlier point too, it's not just about the victim, or the accuser, or the student herself. It's about the university. It's about those other students in the classroom. It's about the campus at large and these situations, that it's not just that person. Jenn Otremba: The other residents at the housing. Yeah. Bray Wheeler: Right? It's everybody else around her. And if you're getting accusations like some of these things and you don't know what people's capabilities are, if you're not taking it seriously upfront, you're exposing everybody to it instead of keeping it under control and mitigating it as much as you can. Jenn Otremba: Especially what sounds like here is a very highly volatile situation. I was just reading through some of them, what things were being reported. So, multiple concerning reports of stalking, physical abuse, emotional abuse, intimidation, dating violence, domestic violence, sexual harassment, gender-based discrimination, and other abusive behaviors. Jenn Otremba: So this isn't a one time, "He's being mean to me," kind of situation. These were repeated reports of concerning behavior. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. What was going on at the university that they didn't act? I know, we don't know. And we'll learn. Jenn Otremba: Yeah. It's hard to say. It is really hard to say. Bryan Strawser: So the lesson here is to take action when these issues come up and don't walk away from it until you've investigated what's really going on with that. Jenn Otremba: Yeah. Bryan Strawser: That's it for this episode of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast. Tune in later this week for a deep dive, round table discussion between the three of us on crisis leadership. Bryan Strawser: We'll see you then.

What does strong crisis leadership look like? What makes a strong crisis leader?  How do you develop a strong crisis management team? What role does emotional intelligence play in crisis leadership? In this episode of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast, Bryghtpath Principal & CEO Bryan Strawser, along with Sr. Consultant Jenn Otremba and Consultant Bray Wheeler talk about crisis leadership and their experiences coming up in this field. Topics discussed include emotional intelligence, crisis leadership skill sets, how to train & develop new crisis leaders, the Harvard National Preparedness Leadership Initiative (NPLI) program, educational and learning opportunities for crisis leaders, and more. Some relevant previous episodes and blog posts include: Top Business Continuity & Crisis Management Executive Programs Managing Uncertainty Episode #5:  Leading during an Active Shooter Situation   //static.leadpages.net/leadboxes/current/embed.js Episode Transcript Bryan Strawser: Hello and welcome to the Managing Uncertainty Podcast this is Bryan Strawser, Principal and CEO at Bryghtpath. Joining me today are - Jenn Otremba: Hi, this is Jenn Otremba, Consult at Bryghtpath. Bray Wheeler: Hi, I'm Bray Wheeler, Consultant at Bryghtpath. Bryan Strawser: So this is our long form episode for the week and we're going to be diving into a round-table discussion about Crisis Leadership. Since the three of us are here, a few weeks back I had done a solo episode on our podcast about characteristics of strong Crisis Leaders, and we'll link that in the show notes but I think we want to talk just more openly and with a couple of different opinions about what we see as strong and not strong Crisis Leaders, and some of the things we've learned along the way. I think between the three of us we've got a good thirty-plus years of experience in Crisis Management, and we may have learned a few things along the way. Jenn Otremba: One or two. Bryan Strawser: One or two things along the way. So what makes a good crisis leader? What are good examples of crisis leadership? We start there. Bray Wheeler: What makes a good crisis leader? What demonstrates crisis leadership? I think it's a lot of things. I think some of it comes a little more naturally to people. Some of it's learned for folks, but I think some of the key things are really having that ability to kind of see the incident for what it is, and not get too ... not overact to it, not get too flustered by it, kind of see it as an opportunity to kind of jump in and manage the situation for what it is, and make sure that you're trying to do the right things. And make sure that you're bringing the other people along with you, because it's not a solo sport by any means. Jenn Otremba: That's a good point, it's not a solo sport at all so I think it's developing that team around you to work through a situation. It's being careful to not get too emotionally involved with what is going on. I think it's like you said it's really keeping a level head as you're managing through the situation. And then I think also recognizing when you're beginning to escalate or when the people around you are beginning to escalate and get stressed and separate yourself or separate others as necessary. So it's really being able to read the room and understand kind of where everybody is at - that's crisis leadership to me. Bray Wheeler: That self-awareness is a huge piece of it. To your point I think it's being able to read the room, being able to read yourself, knowing when you're tired, knowing when you're stressed, knowing when you need a break, knowing when somebody else needs on too, to be able to take those intentional pauses because that's how you're going to be able to get through that stuff, is to be able to recognize- Jenn Otremba: Especially a long term, on-going situation, right? Bryan Strawser: I kind of start with just the thought about the person of the crisis leader, and I think you've both kind of hinted at this, and I'm just going to go back to the kind of elements of Mettle Leadership that the Harvard National Preparedness Leadership Institute folks have researched and talked about and that's that Crisis Leadership starts with the person of the leader. It starts with that understanding of your strengths and weaknesses, or opportunities, as we like to used to say. But what do you do well? And then how do you build a team around you to compensate for the things that you don't do well? Like I'm not the ... I'm well aware that I'm not the most empathetic person in the world, but I could build a team around me to do those things. To add that to the tool box in a crisis. Bryan Strawser: But I think it is understanding kind of what are the things that you do and don't understand. I think the second is just, the situational leadership aspect that comes with being the leader of a crisis that somebody's got to have their head above the clouds looking around and understanding kind of where you're at and what you know and what you don't know and "What you don't know you don't know", to quote Donald Rumsfeld, and understanding how you need to fill those gaps to really understand the impact of what's going on. It's that need to be able to see the big picture. Bray Wheeler: It's easy to go down a rabbit hole really fast. Jenn Otremba: Really fast. Bray Wheeler: In a crisis. Bryan Strawser: I mean look at ... we always use that example of Japan with the 2011 tsunami- Bray Wheeler: Yes. Oh my gosh, yes. Bryan Strawser: Earthquake, nuclear issue where Japan was really really good at all of those things taken as individual crisis situations. Give them all three at the same time, on a scale that the world had never seen, and they didn't see it. They didn't see the issue for what it was and it cost them. It was really a failure of crisis leadership. Bray Wheeler: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bryan Strawser: And it practically brought the government down. From there I think it's the crisis leadership aspect of the leader understanding that they've got a couple of constituencies that they have to communicate and work with. And that's ... they've got to lead and communicate up within their organization, or if they are the top person in the organization that now they're interfacing with executives or political leaders, elected leaders, who look to you to know the subject matter, but they're dealing with all of these other things and you've got to ... how do you communicate the right message? Bryan Strawser: There's leading the Silo, leading the team through the crisis and then the ability to lead across and I think that's the most important it's the connectivity of effort, leading across multiple Silos and some people just don't see that. Jenn Otremba: I think it even comes before that with the ... I think that you had mentioned earlier about developing the team and picking the right team around you, and I think training the team as well so that they're prepared to respond to incidents and it's not shooting at the hip for every situation. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative).. Jenn Otremba: I also find it interesting that you pointed out that you were not the empathy in the room - Bryan Strawser: Oh hell no. Jenn Otremba: Which, we're not either Bray, so who plays the empathy here? Bryan Strawser: Marie. Jenn Otremba: Marie, [laughs] Bryan Strawser: I think you're really empathetic. Bray Wheeler: Not really. Jenn Otremba: Can you? Bryan Strawser: Yeah, I can try. If you've ever taken ... but I knew this because our previous employer put me in a situation to take an assessment tool, the Herman Brain Dominance Instrument, and it told me that I didn't have any empathy. I mean I literally have no empathy on that scale. But it was interesting to me as a leader to see that, and this is long before I worked in Crisis Management, but to look at that and go, "Well I'm going to have to find some ways to compensate for that. I'm going to have to have some people around me that have this". Jenn Otremba: Yeah, I think it's huge to know yourself, and know how you may not know how you're going to react in a crisis situation, we see this all the time especially in the military, you don't know how you're going to react in those overly stressful situations that are unheard of to the normal population but you may know yourself to know at least those types of things. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Jenn Otremba: That you're not the person to go to for that but you know the people on your team that are. Bray Wheeler: Well I think it's one of those things to where ... excuse me ... I don't think that ... Bryan to your point ... I don't think that that you're not an empathetic person, but it's probably not your natural inclination to go the - Bryan Strawser: No, you're right. I have to think about it. Bray Wheeler: And that's those traits in a Crisis Leader that they need to be aware of, I am that person and I could be that person outside of work or outside of this situation but my natural instinct is not to go there it's to go here. Which isn't wrong, but to know those things and to know those things about ... to your guys' point to build that team around you ... where they go there. And then that kind of- Bryan Strawser: That helps me go there. Bray Wheeler: - And that kind of support. Bryan Strawser: Yeah I mean, to your point, I had to train myself that when things happen, that my first questions were, what is the impact on the team? And how are we doing, how is the team doing? Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Bryan Strawser: And that team question is two-fold. How are the folks at the sight or the sights that are impacted, like how are they doing, but, and I think both of you have brought this up, it's also how the crisis team is doing, right? Bryan Strawser: My team and the other folks that came there to work on the crisis, how are they doing? Because you get into four or five days of 16-hour a day, 24-hour day response, and you're dealing with ... you've got employees that have been killed or injured and families impacted, homes lost - Jenn Otremba: Or you don't even know where everyone is at. Bryan Strawser: Right, yeah. Jenn Otremba: I think of like the Boston shooter situation. Trying to account for people and trying to get creative on how we could find out who was where. And that lasted for days. That was stressful for everyone. Bryan Strawser: That was a week. Jenn Otremba: Yes. Bryan Strawser: Almost a week. Although really only about a 48 hour period that was crazy. Bray Wheeler: And I think, back to your point, that a Crisis Leader kind of sitting in the middle of all those different tiers, the across, the up, the down, it's their disposition that probably matters most. Especially in the probably first 24, 48 hours of ... they set the tone. Bryan Strawser: They do. Bray Wheeler: Their disposition of how they react, how they're kind of constructing, how they're seeing the scope of the incident matters to how people are reacting to it. Because if you're frazzled, you're overcharged, certainly the people underneath you are going to act that way, people next to you are going to maybe be asking questions, and the people above you are going to be asking questions too of, are you the right person or do I need to be doing more? Or, is this a bigger deal, or ah it's not that big of a deal, you're overreacting. So I think it's ... to your earlier point, Jenn, that level-headedness, that disposition, that calm in the storm. Bryan Strawser: Yeah, you can't be otherwise. You've got to find ... I mean, first of all, this isn't for everybody. Crisis leadership isn't for everybody. Bray Wheeler: No. Bryan Strawser: But it's ... you have got... there is some of the ability here to kind of train somebody to do some of this, but you've got to ... you have to portray a calm, in-control persona even if it's not ... even if you're not at the time. I mean you might have a thousand things going on in your head, you better be talking about one. Jenn Otremba: Yeah. Bray Wheeler: Right. Jenn Otremba: I think, and some of the things that we've done in the past and our different experiences, is we've had teams that were large enough to where we didn't have to be that direct leader each time. We could take turns as to who, okay you got this one, all right then I will step back and play the other role of taking care of everyone while you're managing through that. So I think for us, we were lucky enough in a lot of different situations that we've worked into where we had other leaders that we could lean on to, you know this time isn't my turn, this time is my turn to be the follower. So I think being a good leader, demonstrating crisis leadership, is a big part of that is also being a good follower when it's not your turn to be the leader. Bray Wheeler: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bryan Strawser: A friend of mine was the Police Incident Commander during the 35W bridge collapse here in Minneapolis back in 2007. Jenn Otremba: Yeah, I think so. Bray Wheeler: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bryan Strawser: I was not in Crisis Management at the time, I was on my little hiatus doing other things within Corporate Security at our previous employer. But he was the ... I mean the fire department and the Sheriff's department had Incident Command because this was on the river. But the Minneapolis Police were a significant part of the response. They had hundreds of people down there and they get their Command Post set up in the Red Cross parking lot there, overlooking the Mississippi. Bryan Strawser: And they had trained this particular Lieutenant for a couple of years to be like one of the top, he was going to be the next guy to run this kind of stuff when my friend retired. And they had a couple of incidents where he had kind of been frazzled and had kind of yelled and snapped at some people but apparently just went off on somebody a couple of hours into the response and my friend relieved him and sent him home. And that was the end of his time in, kind of large scale incident management in the public sector. Went on to a great law enforcement career, I don't want to impugn the guy's reputation, but this was not for him. He did not have the mindset to do this because you can't act like that. You've got to be calm and controlled and in control of the situation - you have to demonstrate crisis leadership. Bray Wheeler: Oh yeah. It doesn't make you a bad person or a bad professional it just ... it's almost a calling. You have to naturally kind of be inclined to put yourself in those situations, want to be put in those situations, know yourself well enough to know that that is what you're going to do ... you're going to kind of go into the fire so to speak. Jenn Otremba: I think sometimes it can be important to acknowledge to that, while you may portray good traits as a good Crisis Leader one day, another day you may have a lot of personal things goin on- Bray Wheeler: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Jenn Otremba: - Or your mind isn't there and that's not your day. So even though today may not be the best day for you when the 35W Bridge collapsed, they may be a great leader in another situation. Bray Wheeler: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Jenn Otremba: When their mind was in a different place. Bryan Strawser: Or they're more comfortable with that kind of an incident. Jenn Otremba: Exactly. Bray Wheeler: That's true. Bryan Strawser: You know, put me in a cyber incident and I'm probably not as calm as, you know, a natural disaster or something else but I think it's that comfortability factor too is huge too. But it's also, to your point, having a bad day. Jenn Otremba: Yeah. Bryan Strawser: You've got to be able to recognize, I'm having a bad day. Jenn Otremba: You really do. And then I think- Bryan Strawser: It's not my day. Or, I have to know enough to set that aside if I'm the only one that's on the docket. So, I kind of stepped in. Jenn Otremba: I think you may also have to recognize as a, maybe a secondary leader, that your primary leader is having a bad day and they may have to be removed like you said Bryan. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative) Jenn Otremba: And as a good leader you have to recognize, somebody is telling you that it's probably true. So step down and move aside and let somebody else take over at least for a while. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative). And certainly, I mean lots of responses are a 24/7 thing. Bray Wheeler: Mm-hmm (affirmative) Bryan Strawser: Your own fatigue is a big issue, the fatigue of your team I think, to your point about rotating and shifting people in and out. It's necessary. I mean I remember when I first got into Crisis Management full-time in 2005, come around Labor Day Hurricane Katrina hits, followed by Hurricane Wilma, and Hurricane Rita, or that's out of order. Hurricane Rita, and then Hurricane Wilma and I don't think I had a day off for 60 days, 58, 59 days. Because we didn't have, at the time we didn't have the resources and we didn't have the structure that we would have later on. Bray Wheeler: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bryan Strawser: When we built those capabilities out. That was not a healthy environment for the four or five of us that was carrying the load for this, but we didn't have anything else. That was it. Jenn Otremba: Well I think of... to your point there... working in consulting I've learned a lot about working with smaller organizations that don't have built out teams quite like we did and we've had a lot of different organizations reach out to us for specific needs, you know maybe it's just to understand or be better at Crisis Communications in that moment because you don't have that expertise. And I think there's no shame in asking for help outside of your organization as well. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Jenn Otremba: Whether that be a consultant or even just people you know. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative).. Bray Wheeler: Well I think it gets back to one of the mantra's we use too when you need a friend- Bryan Strawser: It's too late to make one. Jenn Otremba: Yeah. Bray Wheeler: And that goes ... it's not just external partners and law enforcement or EMS, it's the internal partners. It's having those teams, it's having that buy in, it's having those relationships in place that ... if you are a one, two person Crisis Management shop you need those other players in the organization to know that, yeah my other hat is Crisis. When something happens, I am shifting it to that. I am helping. And the organization knows that too. It's not just ... you know that HR person wanting to. HR knows that that's ... yep something happened and I'm shifting into that because that's what the company needs, or that's what the organization needs. Bryan Strawser: Well, I think the partnership thing is ... if you think about partnerships with other organizations, I think it's important to look at .... there's a two-way street there that develops over time in that relationship or that partnership. It's not just about transactional nature of needing something in a crisis. I remember during ... there were tornadoes that came through Minneapolis ... gosh I don't remember when, 2009, 2010. Bray Wheeler: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bryan Strawser: They went into north Minneapolis- Jenn Otremba: Yes. Bryan Strawser: Caused a lot of damage, right? Jenn Otremba: Yes. Bryan Strawser: Remember this? Jenn Otremba: Yes. Bryan Strawser: It was a big deal. So, I wasn't impacted, I was in charge of Crisis Management at the time for a Fortune 50 Company, we were not impacted, but on my own accord I picked up the phone and called Minneapolis' Deputy of Chief of Police, and said "Hey," ... and it was like eight o'clock at night I think when this thing happened. I'm like "Hey, Chief, just calling to see if you need anything. Do you need anything?" And he goes, "Hold on." He was in the Command Center. "Does anybody want anything?". But they were okay, they had a great response. Bryan Strawser: Fast forward to 2012, we had an active shooter situation that we were all three involved in, that was across the street from our offices, and for three or four hours we didn't really know what was really going on. And it turned out to be a construction noise that occurred. This guy, at this point, is retired from Minneapolis PD. Calls me, just to see, one do you need anything, two, do you want to talk? And this was that night. Do you want to talk about, kind of what went down that day? Knowing that like, we thought people were in harm's way and it turned out to be a false alarm. But we were all concerned about that. That's the kind of partnership I think you develop over time, it's not just about Big Company helping Big Police Department and vice-versa. Bray Wheeler: It's that community piece of it, too. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bray Wheeler: That communal, not only broad scale but just that Crisis Community of people who are in that .... kind of in the weeds all the time with it. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative). I do ... and then I want to shift and talk about how do you kind of train, or get educated on some this but, during the 2017 Hurricane Season, which was such a monumental event for you know, four months. Between Harvey and Irma and Maria, I was at Bryghtpath but we were supporting ... I was serving as Interim Chief Security Officer for a University that was impacted in all three of those. And it was a pretty stressful time because they didn't have the resources that we had had previously. We've since, you know, they built some things after this. But I went to the Harvard NPLI program, and it ... you know I got an email in the middle of the Hurricane Season from Dr. Lenny Marcus, the Co-Director of the Program, who said, "Hey, I'm down here with the Red Cross today in Virginia, but I've been all over talking to people, and I see a lot of you as alumni making huge impact, but here are some things to remember." And kind of took us back to the things we would talk about in the program. Bryan Strawser: And I thought that was such a meaningful email to send, knowing that, God he probably had 200-250 alumni on the ground, in leadership roles, doing different things, private sector, public sector. That connectivity I think really helps as you think about how you're dealing with and working through these situations. Bryan Strawser: So how do you learn this, beyond doing it? Bray Wheeler: Practice, unfortunately. Real-life experience. Jenn Otremba: Yeah, you don't really know how you're going to react, because I know I said this before but nobody knows how they're going to react in the situation unfortunately until you're put into the situation. Jenn Otremba: I think, if you want to get into this line of work, the best place you could be is in an organization that has multiple Crisis Leaders that you can learn from. Being thrown into it where you're the only one and you've never done it before I don't think is the best place for you, that's not what I would recommend. I think it would be best to be somewhere where you can learn from other people, see different styles so that you can develop your own style. And experience those things where you're not the only point person. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Jenn Otremba: There are obviously school programs you can go to that Academia has all kinds of options out there but that's not going to be how you learn how to actually be in the nit and gritty. Bray Wheeler: Right. Jenn Otremba: You're going to learn some basics there but- Bray Wheeler: Yeah some of the structure and fundamentals and the background - Jenn Otremba: Exactly, which is important. Bray Wheeler: And the context of all of it, but to your point, it is one of those things where you ... you have to put yourself in situations where you experience it. Whether it's, you're just kind of one of the minions, you know to help execute it. Or you're a partner, or you have some sort of an assistant role or something like that. But you almost have to be in it, watch it, observe it. Bray Wheeler: I know from my early days I was brand-new into the concept and hired in but it wasn't until the wildfires in California, '08, that it was really like, "Okay, now my feet have been wet for a little bit, for nine months or something like that, but now I understand what's going on, now I see what's happening." Bray Wheeler: And that was really eye-opening for me to be able to step into that and get a taste for ... this is full-on. And watching it play out and being able to jump in and kind of my instincts kicking into kind of know what to do, what to expect. Jenn Otremba: Yeah. One benefit too, I think for me having a pretty long career military-wise is, we in the military like to train, over train, exercise, train, exercise, exercise, train, train. And there's something to be said ...I mean, when we do it, man it is awful. But there's something to be said about having so much training behind you, so that when you're in a situation you at least have an idea, a little bit of an idea about how you can react and have some of the automatics happen right away because you don't have to go back and read again a protocol because you have memorized, "what am I going to do in this situation?". Jenn Otremba: And you work together with other members of your military unit as well so that when you're in those situations together you've worked together. Jenn Otremba: In the Civilian Sector we do the same thing where we run exercise, after exercise, after exercise. We don't do it as often, I think in the Civilian Sector as we do in the Military, but doing those over and over help to develop those sort of skills and those checklists in your mind as well. Bray Wheeler: Especially if your organization is brand-new, or the people that kind of comprise your team, however big however small, if they're new to it as well, it's the more you do it, the better relationship you have with each other, which makes whatever response you end up doing, easier. Because otherwise, you're ... everybody's flying blind or everybody's inexperienced or nobody knows and then it becomes ... you're just complicating it for yourself, you're throwing up other obstacles in your way because of you ... nobody has that experience or nobody knows how to interact with each other. Bryan Strawser: I mean I think it's fair to say, everybody's got their own learning style. Jenn Otremba: Yes. Bryan Strawser: And we should accommodate that as we think about this but I don't think there's any substitute for experiencing this in real life. In an organization where there are people senior to you that can teach you and mentor you and kind of bring you through this, that's how all three of us kind of learned - Bray Wheeler: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bryan Strawser: - this. At least when we started. I think exercise are great if they're realistic, and we do exercises as a company for clients and we are getting ... we've gone to the very realistic stage I think at this point in our consulting careers. Where we want it to be under pressure, we want people to feel time constraint, we want them to have to make the tough decisions. And where there is limited time and information and you've got to decide what you're going to do. I also think there's a place for the academic aspect of this which is ... there are programs you can go to and learn this. I am biased, I think the Harvard NPLI Program, because it is focused on leadership versus like, how do you structure an exercise? None of that happens there. Bray Wheeler: The nuts and bolts? Bryan Strawser: There's none of the nuts and bolts. This program is about, how do you lead in a crisis? And when you're talking about ... there's a lot of discussion of cases where ... that I think is even beyond what I saw in business school, on my M.B.A., in my M.B.A. program you read a case and then you discuss the case, and you might take action on the case in terms of talking through or writing something. Bryan Strawser: But at NPLI, when you talk about a case you bring the Principal that was involved in the case to the class and they tell the story. And you talk to them about what happened. And I think that there is no substitute for that kind of experience in terms of learning about what happened, right? They would explain how they led - what crisis leadership looked like to them. Bryan Strawser: So when we talked about managing an organization through reputational challenge we had the Director of the Secret Service, the Incumbent Director of the Secret Service come in, off the record conversation, no press contact, no sharing, and he walked us through what happened in their scandal in Cartagena, where they had agents that were hiring prostitutes and other things that went on down there, and military personnel, and others. And they got caught. So he's the Secret Service Director, how does he manage through that? Okay, so that ... I thought that was a great example of Crisis Leadership. And I agreed with many of the things he talked about doing. Right or wrong. About how they dealt with this. Bryan Strawser: But I think programs like that are great, there are other good programs in Crisis Management and Business Continuity but they're not focused on leadership. And I think what I got out of Harvard was about, here's how you should think as a leader dealing with these situations and what are the things you should look for in yourself, good or bad, and how to compensate for that as you're building the team around you. Bray Wheeler: Yeah, I think it's ... I mean, to build onto that it's that self-assessment piece that's critical. To know yourself, we talked about this earlier but just, it is important. To know those things and to know where your limits are. I think the other piece too is, there's a lot of good companies that have gone through different situations whether it's reputational, whether it's right or wrong, or tragic or not, finding those stories, finding those breakdowns, finding those reports from Harvard, from other places where they've deep dived into it and they're talking to people and reading those articles or those papers or books. You know, to at least get a sense of, how did they respond, what were they thinking about? What did they learn? What, you know, at the very minimum, I mean it's, it's that preparation. It's that. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative) Jenn Otremba: That's a good point. I love that actually because we spend a lot of time talking about things ...at Bryghtpath especially we talk about a lot of things that go wrong and how they manage ... and we break it down to, well how did they manage through it, what did they do, what could they have done better? So I think, to your point, that sort of, even if it's your own incident, making sure that you're running through that after action with your team so that you can get better for the next time. I think that says a lot about a leader when you're able to not only assess yourself but have your team assess you. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative). And we've seen this, we've seen good and bad leaders in our experience from a crisis standpoint. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Bryan Strawser: We've seen incredibly intelligent folks who are great leaders within their organization, could not lead through a basic crisis situation because of a number of different reasons. It could be they have low kind of emotional intelligence and so they panic and they get frustrated. We've seen the "Let's debate the decision for four hours" - Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bryan Strawser: - situation. Meanwhile, you've got people in harm's way, looking to you to make a call. There's a lot of different things that we've seen but what we've run through is a pretty good example of, here's what a good Crisis Leader looks like, here's what good Crisis Leadership looks like, here's some ways to grow it within the Org. Closing thoughts? Bray? Bray Wheeler: I would say, one thing that we kind of talked about off here too is, I think it's important to remember is this isn't an opportunity for promotion. It's not an opportunity that a Crisis Leader should look to take advantage of. It's an opportunity that needs to happen for the company. You need to step into that role with some clarity and that's not about you at that point. No matter what's going on, and if does involve you or it is part of you or it is you, you should probably step aside. You know, because there is that bias coming into play, but it really isn't about you at that point it's about the organization it's about the people impact - Bryan Strawser: It's about the team. Bray Wheeler: That's where your head's got to be at. Bryan Strawser: There's my lack of empathy speaking. Bray Wheeler: It's about the team. Jenn? Jenn Otremba: I don't think I could put it any better than that, honestly. I completely agree with what you're saying. Bryan Strawser: Yeah I mean I think we've hit everything that was on my mind. I'd just end with this, that if you're the Crisis Leader in the critical moment, your team and your organization is looking for you to lead them. Lead them. Take them through the situation. Show crisis leadership. Jenn Otremba: Be the leader. Bryan Strawser: Be the leader. And if you're not the right person, find somebody that can and bring them in and put them under you. And let them lead it. Bray Wheeler: I would say too, so my final FINAL thought. Jenn Otremba: As it turns out, Bray has a lot to say. Bray Wheeler: I have a lot to say on the subject of crisis leadership. No, I think it's, to your point, if you're the designated Crisis Leader that's your opportunity to kind of step into that and lead them. That's why you're in that role. But I think if you're not in that role if you're one of the key partners, you're on the Crisis ... you know, their cross-functional team, if you're underneath that person, you're still a Crisis Leader. You still have a job to do you still have to lead your respective area, you still have to be that player. So it's also about being a Crisis Follower too where you're in it. And you're self-aware enough to know, "I'm tired, I've got to take a step back", or "I know about this, let me see what I can do to help." I think there's that designated Crisis Leader but everybody else has got to have a little bit of that too to be able to get through it. Jenn Otremba: Right, there's some responsibility for everyone on the team. But yeah, be the leader or be the follower, you know, right? Bray Wheeler: Because the culture of the team is probably what makes or breaks that response. Jenn Otremba: Mm-hmm (affirmative) Bryan Strawser: That's it for this edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast, join us next week for our update on Current Events and News from around the World. Hope to see you then.

In this episode of our BryghtCast edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast, Bryghtpath Principal & CEO Bryan Strawser and Consultant Bray Wheeler take a look at three current risks and upcoming events: China's plan to conduct military exercises off the coast of Taiwan China's rare public statement on Hong Kong The shooting at the Gilroy Garlic Festival and what it means for major event planning & physical security strategy //static.leadpages.net/leadboxes/current/embed.js Episode Transcript Bryan Strawser: Hello and welcome to the Managing Uncertainty podcast. This is our BryghtCast edition for the week of July 29th, 2019. Bryan Strawser: This is Bryan Strawser, Principal and CEO here at Bryghtpath. With me is- Bray Wheeler: Bray Wheeler, Consultant with Bryghtpath. Bryan Strawser: As a reminder, the Bryghtcast episode is where we take a few recent events in the news and talk about their connectivity to the private sector and issues that organizations may want to be prepared with. Bryan Strawser: We're going to start with an announcement this morning that China's military is holding exercises this week in waters off the coast of Taiwan. This was announced by China's Maritime Safety Agency and came just days after the government in Beijing reiterated that it was ready to fight if there was any move towards independence for the self-ruled island of Taiwan. Of course, to the Chinese, they often refer to it as the wayward province of Chinese Taipei, which is how Taiwan is referred to in international terms at conferences and such, where both countries are present. Bryan Strawser: China claims that it is stepping up military drills in recent years, including even flying what Beijing calls Island Encirclement Exercises, and sending warships into surround international waters. Bryan Strawser: Bray, what does this mean for companies that operate in Taiwan? Bray Wheeler: Well, it certainly means that Taiwan is back in the news. Bryan Strawser: Yeah, it's been a while. Bray Wheeler: For China, it's been a bit quiet. Hong Kong has dominated a lot of the discussion as it relates to China, as well as some of the trade stuff, so Taiwan has been a bit under the radar here, at least for the last month or two. Bray Wheeler: Really, for companies that are in Taiwan, probably not anything direct or immediate, however, the fact those exercises are going on, [South] China Sea is still a thing that's important. We have other activity in other important straits within the Maritime world. The fact that these are happening definitely could impact, could disrupt, could delay Maritime shipping, commerce in those areas should these escalate, be prolonged, or something happens, an accident or whatnot. Bryan Strawser: Taiwan had its own military exercises in May, both air, land, and sea. Or, I guess that's all three, not both. They vowed to defend themselves against China's growing threat to their independence. Bryan Strawser: China also has reiterated that it would be ready to go to war against those who try to split Taiwan from the country, and accused the United States of undermining global stability and denouncing our arms sales to the island. Bryan Strawser: Taiwan primarily uses US equipment. Bray Wheeler: It does. Bryan Strawser: That's purchased from us. Bray Wheeler: It does. Bryan Strawser: Or, purchased from our companies. Bryan Strawser: I was at the Aspen Security Forum two weeks ago, out in Colorado. The second night of the conference, the keynote interview before the crowd was Admiral Phil Davidson, who is the Commander for US Indo-Pacific Command. This is the joint command that's responsible for all US interests in the Pacific ocean, including China and Taiwan. Bryan Strawser: He got a question about Taiwan, and Admiral Davidson pointed out that Taiwan is a US ally. We have treaty obligations as a country to Taiwan, but he mostly focused on the fact that a big part of what the United States Navy does in the South China Sea, maybe to be more clear about it, in international waters of the South China Sea, is to continue to reinforce the freedom of navigation that is guaranteed by the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. That's the big story in the South China Sea, just in general. This activity, whether it's Vietnam, whether it's the Philippines, whether it's Taiwan, whether it's Bradley Islands. That South China Sea is a major route. Bryan Strawser: Right. Bray Wheeler: Coming out from that area. Especially as companies are looking to shift into Vietnam, into other areas of Asia, it's going to become more important. It's going to more of an issue as some of these countries start either to defend themselves, or they run exercises, and China's trying to assert its dominance on the area. Bryan Strawser: So, the key take away here for organizations, if you operate in this area or have travelers that go through Taipei, or your source from countries bordering the South China Sea, is to just continue to monitor the situation between China and Taiwan. This probably never ends, as long as they are separate countries, or a country and its wayward province. Bryan Strawser: What's next? Bray Wheeler: Next up, staying in China, but shifting back to Hong Kong in just a quick update. I don't know that we want to spend too much time since we've talked quite a bit about Hong Kong here lately. Bray Wheeler: Recently, China has actually officially commented on the protests that are happening in Hong Kong. So, Hong Kong protests have been going on for about eight weeks now. China has been reluctant to say anything, or seemingly so. Bray Wheeler: They've since come out and made ... I'm trying to find the official spokesmen for Hong Kong and Macao Affairs commented as the first Chinese statement on it, calling the situation in Hong Kong grave, that the protesters were committing evil and criminal acts, and has damaged the city's reputation and stability. Bray Wheeler: It's the first time that China has said this, which probably isn't going to be helpful in terms of calming the situation. Bryan Strawser: I don't think it's going to be helpful at all. Bray Wheeler: No. Bray Wheeler: They also used the language of “Hong Kong is China's Hong Kong. Hong Kong affairs are Chinese domestic affairs. It's one country, two system model.” Bray Wheeler: Just reinforcing that position, that outlook, or view of how they see Hong Kong is in direct contrast to what the protesters are actually protesting of. They see themselves as, yes, they are a part of China, but they are independent and fiercely independent. They're China's reinforcement of their assertion of control, their support. For the Hong Kong leader Carrie Lamb, all those things are only going to exacerbate, only going to continue this protest activity that's going on. Bryan Strawser: Yeah, it seems, I don't know, this almost feels like an escalation on the part of China, in that they rarely make direct commentary on Hong Kong. Bray Wheeler: They do. Bryan Strawser: This, to me, is almost an escalation of the situation. That's some really bluntly strong language. I don't see that making protesters go home. Bray Wheeler: No. If anything, it's just going to keep it going, which probably to China's view, helps make their case. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bray Wheeler: Hong Kong is out of control, Hong Kong needs more governance from China. The fact that they've made that direct language of Hong Kong's affairs from China's affairs are domestic affairs, is pretty, pretty blatant in terms of where they stand on it, and pretty escalatory. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bray Wheeler: From a protester's standpoint. Bryan Strawser: The bottom line here for organizations is to continue to monitor what's going on in Hong Kong, and keep an eye on what that might mean for travelers and for your business operations in the city. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. The fact that it's been eight weeks now, it's come off the radar in terms of other things that have popped up, new topics. The fact that this is still going on, China is taking these kinds of positions, means that this is probably going to continue and could only become more complicated. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bryan Strawser: So, the other issue we want to talk about ... We're recording this on Monday the 29th. You may not hear this for a few days, but the other breaking issue over the weekend into today was the mass shooting at the Gilroy Garlic Festival in Gilroy, California, which, for perspective, is outside of San Jose, I believe about 45 to 60 miles. Definitely not in a city, it's in a small town. Bryan Strawser: This festival, which gets about 100 thousand visitors each year, there was a shooting last night involving a 19-year-old, which is just now being identified having used a rifle for this homicide. I believe that there were 12 wounded and five killed. Is that correct? Bray Wheeler: Yeah. I've seen mixed numbers. It's probably slightly too early. I've seen three, but if you're saying five, that's entirely possible with injuries and stuff like that. Bryan Strawser: As we're recording this press conference, there's a ... As we're recording the podcast, rather, there's a press conference going on with the Gilroy police and other agencies. There's some new information being released that may be different than what we're telling you. Bryan Strawser: Part of what we wanted to talk about here, was, this festival poses an interesting physical security issue that we want to highlight. This festival is fenced in, from our understanding. There was weapon screening occurring at the entrances to the festival, but what the shooter did is come around the backside of the festival, crossed a creek, and then cut the chain-link fence and gained access with his weapon by those means. Then, came into the festival and began shooting. Bray Wheeler: Which, you know, to these festivals and to gatherings credit, these organizations, these events are starting to think through physical security safety, think through processes, think through mechanisms to help control some of the violence or the safety. It's not just mass shooting and things like that, it could be anything. From theft to riots, to protests, all these kinds of things, to help control what's happening at some of these events. Bray Wheeler: The only caveat to that is, the physical security mechanism itself isn't enough. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bray Wheeler: You have to still layer yourself on, and I think that's, unfortunately, some of these organizations and events have to catch up a bit. Bray Wheeler: They're doing the right things, but if you're not screening the backline of the fence, then the fence doesn't do too much other than probably keep some wildlife out. Bryan Strawser: Right. Bryan Strawser: The FBI and the Department of Homeland Security have put out some planning guidance for mass gatherings, I think is how they worded it. For large scale events, and this was an output of the 2017 shooting in Las Vegas at the country music festival that was going on. There were a number of issues that came out of the after-action discussion that happened around that festival. Bryan Strawser: Part of this is, if you decide to do as they did at this Garlic Festival, and you're doing weapon screening, you need to look at the rest of your security perimeter and then take the right actions to ensure that you're adequately protection your patrons. That's your goal, I assume, by doing weapons screening and other screening to keep prohibited items out, food. It's probably just as much about food as it was about weapons. Bryan Strawser: You've got to look at the whole perimeter, right? You've got to really think about defense in-depth, and can't just trust that the chain link fence is going to keep the bad guy out, or keep another unwanted individual with prohibited items out. You've got to look at the whole story. Bryan Strawser: I think the FBI DHS Guidance really gets to that issue, in terms of how they talk about planning. Bray Wheeler: There are definitely issues of resource constraints and things like that, too, with some of these events. Security can be super expensive, and it can suck up a large chunk of some of these things' budget. They don't have to. Bray Wheeler: As I said, they're doing the right things and they're thinking about it the right way, but it's one of those, you have to make sure that some of these areas that you're just throwing up a fence to make sure you have something there, you have to layer on a human element to it or something else. Bray Wheeler: There was some talk about adding cameras and things like that. Certainly, that'll probably become easier and easier as technology evolves, but camera systems are pretty expensive. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bray Wheeler: And you have to have somebody monitoring it. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bray Wheeler: And you have to have people watching for it. If you're switching between cameras, a guy cuts a fence, he can do that in a couple of minutes and be in and through and you don't see it, either. Bryan Strawser: Right. Bray Wheeler: Depending on how you placed it. Bray Wheeler: It's making sure you're having perimeter walks, and things like that, to at least know and identify opportunities of, hey, that wasn't there before. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bray Wheeler: Hey, there's a hole in the fence. Hey, this is going on, so that you can control some of that, or at least be able to react. Bryan Strawser: I would say, just to be clear, we're not passing judgment on the Garlic Festival. Not all the details are out. Bryan Strawser: As we were talking this morning, it did stand out to us that you've really got to think about physical security holistically, and it can't just be about screening weapons at your points of entry. If you've got a secure area, then you've got to look at your other boundaries, as well. Bray Wheeler: I think that's absolutely fair. As you said, we don't know everything that was in place. I think just generally, as organizations, as companies are thinking about these events, they're definitely softer targets. They're definitely an opportunity. Bray Wheeler: Again, not just for violence, it could be for protest, it could be for theft, all sorts of different things, nefarious activity that you don't want a part of. It gets back to you have to think about it holistically, and you have to make some decisions around the risks that are posed to you as part of that festival. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bray Wheeler: Where you're having it when you're having it, the crowd. Is it open to the public, a closed group? All those things play a factor in how you layer on your security. Bryan Strawser: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bryan Strawser: Bottom line, for businesses, if you're holding large events, or you're securing large events, think about physical security holistically and use the tools that are given to you. There's the DHS FBI guidance on planning for large scale events and mitigating the after shooter threat of large scale events. Use that documentation, it's available on the FBI and DHS websites. Bryan Strawser: That's it for this edition of Managing Uncertainty BryghtCast edition. We'll be back later in the week with an additional episode, focused on a single topic. Bryan Strawser: Thanks for listening.

In this episode of our BryghtCast edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast for the week of September 16th, 2019,  Bryghtpath Principal & CEO Bryan Strawser and Consultant Bray Wheeler take a look at two current risks and upcoming events: WSJ: US, Saudi Military Forces Failed to Detect Attack on Oil Facilities NY Post: Satellite photos of Saudi oil strikes show surgical precision National Hurricane Center: Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook //static.leadpages.net/leadboxes/current/embed.js Episode Transcript Bryan Strawser: Hello, and welcome to the Managing Uncertainty Podcast, BryghtCast Edition for the week of September 16th, 2019. This is Bryan Strawser, principal and CEO here at Bryghtpath. Bray Wheeler: This is Bray Wheeler, consultant at Bryghtpath. Bryan Strawser: So we've had a couple of weeks without a BryghtCast episode just due to some business travel, and vacation, and other events that went on. But we're back. Bray Wheeler: We're back. Bryan Strawser: And we're back just in time for one of the more interesting dynamic events that have happened over the course of the year. Just about 36 hours ago, there was an attack on Saudi Arabia's oil production and refining facilities inside Saudi Arabia. Boy, are there rumors flying about this particular situation? Bray Wheeler: Oh, yeah. Bryan Strawser: It appears that the story, at least from Saudi Arabia and the United States, is that this was an attack executed by Iran on Saudi's oil production and refinery capabilities. It was initially reported as drone strikes, and then there was new reporting last night, Sunday evening, that indicated that this was a combination of drone strikes and cruise missiles fired from Iran. The Saudi has come out today, Monday the 16th, saying that these attacks were not originated inside of Yemen. So I think all signs indicate that these came across the Gulf from Iran. Is that what your understanding is? Bray Wheeler: Yeah, that's my understanding as well based on the news reports and then looking at the map, it's well within... These facilities that were attacked and infrastructure that was attacked is well within kind of the zone for Iran to be able to launch a cruise missile, certainly. Bryan Strawser: As we're recording this episode here on Monday morning the 16th, you're going to hear it on Tuesday the 17th, the United States just in the last few minutes has released satellite imagery showing what they're claiming is evidence backing the allegation that Iran was behind the attacks on major oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia. Bray Wheeler: Yeah, they had kind of hinted at that yesterday hoping to be able to get it declassified enough that they could release it. So I'm not surprised that they've been able to push that through here this morning. Bryan Strawser: So there's some impact here, obviously, that's going to happen. Some of which has happened, I think we should point out. The first is just the oil market. Let's talk a little bit about that. The oil price this morning has seen the biggest one-day rise since the 1991 invasion of Kuwait. Oil prices rose 20% this morning in early market trading, and they have since fallen back. The international benchmark used in oil trading is the Brent crude price, which went up to 71.95 a barrel earlier today before dropping back. It was at about $50 a barrel before the attacks, before the markets opened today, the first day of trading since the attacks have occurred. Traders are saying that the prices eased primarily because President Trump has authorized the release of oil from the United States Strategic oil reserve in order to balance out the impact of the attack on the market. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. I mean, what's happening really is kind of based on the infrastructure that if whatever was attacked, whomever... I shouldn't say whatever was attacked. Whoever attacked the infrastructure in Saudi Arabia that produces this stuff, they weren't taking out just pieces here or there that's kind of easily repairable, replace a pipe, divert to a different facility. They hit kind of a jugular as was described by the senior fellow for energy at the Council on Foreign Relations, Amy Myers Jaffe. Hope I'm pronouncing that right. She had posted on Twitter yesterday kind of a long explanation of kind of what all this means, and essentially the strike that was made was the type of strike that you would make at the outset of a conflict. Bray Wheeler: Hit a jugular facility, which was their gas-oil separation plant. There's not a whole lot of those in Saudi Arabia. So taking that out has a very big impact on Saudi Arabia's ability to be able to send through crude oil, send through natural gas, send through gas because really that facility is responsible for taking all of the crude oil that Saudi Arabia is posting with all of its imperfections, and impurities, and different things that are mixed in with it and being able to separate all those things out into the distinct kind of consumables that they'd be able to send out. So by hitting that and some of the other infrastructure, they really significantly damaged Saudi Arabia's ability. It wasn't just a kind of a tit for tat attack. This was a direct strike, whoever it was, on a pretty key piece of infrastructure within Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure. Bryan Strawser: The BBC reports this as the largest oil processing plant in the world. It is run by Saudi's state oil company, which the Saudis this morning that they made delay the IPO of their state-owned oil company, which I'm sure was going to be a boon for them in terms of capital investment in the country and thus to the royal family. To your point about this being the jugular, so to speak, as Amy was describing it from the Council on Foreign Relations, this is the largest oil processing plant in the world. Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bryan Strawser: If you look at the satellite imagery the United States released this morning, I mean the attack, pretty significant damage that occurred. The stuff's not that stable either in terms of it's not overly resistant to attacks, and fire, and bombing, and that kind of thing. Bray Wheeler: Just not naturally. I mean, you could have the best set up probably system in the world and it's still going to be kind of susceptible to that kind of stuff. It's just, I mean, you're dealing with highly flammable- Bryan Strawser: Material. Yeah. Bray Wheeler: ... material. Bryan Strawser: So the core of this conflict is a regional power competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran. They've been bitter rivals going back for decades. Bray Wheeler: Mm-hmm (affirmative). Bryan Strawser: It's exasperated by significant differences in interpretations of religion between the two. We often talk, at least in the counter-terrorism discussions, about the influence of more radical elements of Islam. But this is literally one sect of Islam against another sect of Islam, both of whom happened to be the two regional dominant powers, for the most part, militarily and economically in the Middle East between the two. Bray Wheeler: And responsible for a lot of the smaller proxy factions that operate around the globe. They really kind of fund and/or administer [crosstalk] else. Bryan Strawser: Iran is largely a Shia Muslim country. Saudi is primarily a Sunni Muslim country, and thus the core of the conflict, which of course goes back to the founding of Islam and original differences of opinions that led to the two principles sects of the religion. To your point, the two countries, they've been engaged in a variety of proxy conflicts for decades throughout the region. You saw some of that play out in the United States' time in Iraq. There were very much elements of Iranian proxy war going on that led to the rise of ISIS as elements of that. Bray Wheeler: Well, kind of funny enough, some of that was embraced by the U.S., some of the Iran interference because they were taking on ISIS. Bryan Strawser: Yes, correct. Bray Wheeler: They were combating some of the more extreme elements of kind of the Sunni side of that religion, those extremes. But then also, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia have been very close regional allies for quite some time too, even- Bryan Strawser: Many decades. Bray Wheeler: ... the countering force to Iran. Bryan Strawser: Well, and the whole conflict in Yemen that's going on between the two sides is, again, this is a proxy war between Saudi and Iran. The reasons Saudi entered the conflict was to counter Iranian influence in Yemen that had been going on for some time. Bray Wheeler: Well, originally, they thought this attack kind of originated from Yemen as part of the Iranian-backed rebels so it wasn't- Bryan Strawser: Now they're saying it's not- Bray Wheeler: ... kind of an overt attack from Iran, that it was through the rebels. And now, they are saying that's not the case that they have evidence to suggest that it was directly from Iran. Bryan Strawser: So the danger here for businesses, as we kind of explain what's going on, Saudi's a place that lots of U.S. businesses do business, have facilities, particularly in oil, and gas, defense, and aerospace, intelligence, and other sectors of the United States' economy. And there are lots of other businesses from other countries that operate there too. So the challenge here is now we have military conflict done on a smaller scale between two regional powers. So the disruption we've talked about previously in the Middle East, this just exasperates that situation. Apparently, we have cruise missiles flying over the Gulf from one country to the other. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. I mean, as I mentioned before, taking this step... I mean, this attack is the type of attack you conduct during a direct military engagement. On the onset of war, this is a first-strike target within Saudi Arabia. That would be what opposing forces target. So to have that escalation to have that direct hit. Now, probably not super populated, so there's not a tremendous loss of life, but the economic impact is globally pretty substantial at least for the time being. I think just the region, and you alluded to a lot of the U.S. business going on in Saudi Arabia, there's a lot of even regional business that's going on. This is now a full-out regional concern. You're talking UAE, you're talking Israel, you're talking Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey. Bryan Strawser: The United States has been drug into this. I mean, right? Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Bryan Strawser: I mean, we're not in direct competition here in this particular conflict. Right? Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: But we've taken some sides on this before. We've long been opposed to the Iranian influence in the Middle East, and we've sided with the Saudis and we've been allies with the Saudis for 50 years. Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bryan Strawser: I mean, we have a massive defense installation and capability in Saudi Arabia. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Bryan Strawser: I mean, it couldn't be clearer. Then, the president this morning, of course, made a comment about being locked and loaded, which has now been walked back by the White House staff that he wasn't speaking militarily but he was speaking militarily. Bray Wheeler: Right. Locked and loaded isn't quite a term you mince words with it. It's not a, "Hey, we're going out to the garden party" type of term. Bryan Strawser: Right. Exactly. Bray Wheeler: It's pretty aggressive rhetoric. Yeah. I think regionally, there is a substantial concern. For the U.S., there's a concern. I mean, politically or not, it's forced us to access our strategic oil reserve, which put us there so that degree of kind of uncertainty or nervousness has at least caused us to engage kind of that option for us. So, yeah. This will be interesting to watch throughout the week and into next week. So hopefully, we have kind of a better update for it next week. Bryan Strawser: So businesses need to continue to monitor the situation and take appropriate preparation steps, if you operate in Saudi or nearby countries, and just continue to monitor that situation. What's our other topic for today's episode? Bray Wheeler: Yeah. This one probably won't take too much time because fortunately, Hurricane Humberto has kind of redirected itself out towards the Atlantic, but really just want to give a quick touch base on the Atlantic tropical weather outlook. It's been a fairly quiet start to the season. But however, in the last couple of months here, it's been pretty active in terms of the storms. We've all seen the devastation that The Bahamas has had with Hurricane Dorian and some of the impact that the U.S. has experienced because of that. Bray Wheeler: Really what we want to make sure that companies are staying connected to is, yeah, we're coming up on kind of the end of hurricane season in November. But right now, it's very active. There's a number of storms both in the Pacific and the Atlantic. But in the Atlantic in particular, there's a couple out there. So in the five-day forecast, kind of in the short-term, it's looking okay. Kind of South Texas, that Gulf of Texas will probably see a little bit more of an increase in kind of just tropical weather. But there is a storm that's brewing out there that has a greater than 60% chance of developing into a hurricane. Still kind of midway between the Atlantic coast and kind of The Bahamas area. Bray Wheeler: But then Humberto was also turning out, but there are also some other weather systems that are kind of just sitting out there. So key thing for businesses, just because Humberto has kind of turned the corner and it may be pretty quiet, keep an eye on that radar here for the next few months especially and just stay posted. Because not only have we seen the devastation some of these hurricanes have wrought so far, now to just compound that with hurricanes over the top or a direct landfall. It's certainly in the possibility. Especially, as we're entering the third quarter and a lot of different supply chains are kind of in heavy hit mode, just want to make sure that you're monitoring those and staying ahead of what's going on. Bryan Strawser: Yeah, I mean it's not over- Bray Wheeler: No. Bryan Strawser: ... the hurricane season. I mean, I think we think when we get to November 1st that it's going to stop. But I mean, we've had major cat 3, cat 4, cat 5 hurricanes after November 1st, many times in the last 10 to 15 years. So it's certainly something to continue to monitor. And you're right, both the Atlantic and Pacific are very active right now. Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bryan Strawser: And hurricanes are getting stronger. We're seeing more major hurricanes than before, whether that's due to climate change or it's just a random issue statistically. But it's not over, and I think companies need to continue to monitor what's going on and be prepared for that. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. I mean, the Atlantic basin, kind of in that Gulf area, it's super unstable right now and it's just kind of a breeding ground storms right now. Bryan Strawser: That's it for this edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast, BryghtCast Edition. We'll be back later this week with new episodes. Hope to hear from you then.

In this episode of our BryghtCast edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast for the week of August 12, 2019,  Bryghtpath Principal & CEO Bryan Strawser and Consultant Bray Wheeler take a look at three current risks and upcoming events: Hong Kong protesters offer apologies, China doubles down after airport clash One-China T-Shirt row engulfs Coach and Disney, a day after Versace apology Donald Trump to delay extra tariffs on Chinese imports US designates China as a currency manipulator for the first time in decades //static.leadpages.net/leadboxes/current/embed.js Episode Transcript Bryan Strawser: Hello, and welcome to the Managing Uncertainty podcast. This is Bryan Strawser, principal and CEO at Bryghtpath. And with me today is Bray Wheeler, consultant at Bryghtpath. This is our weekly BryghtCast edition where we talk about recent news and upcoming events and what they might mean for businesses in the private sector. And we're just doing it a little different this episode. As we looked through the news this morning, and we're recording this on Monday, August 12th, as we looked through the news this morning, really one topic was really dominating the news that we thought had private-sector impact, and that is China. Bryan Strawser: So we're going to start by, again, talking about protests in Hong Kong. I awoke early this morning, of course, early afternoon Hong Kong time, but I awoke early this morning to learn that the Hong Kong Airport was completely shut down because thousands of protesters were occupying what looks from the photos I've seen to be essentially every square inch of real estate in the Hong Kong Airport. So inbound flights were canceled, outbound flights were canceled. And really the, again, we can protest led to airport closure. Bray, what do you see going on here? Bray Wheeler: Yeah, it's just that, it's the next evolution of what they've been able to do. They've targeted a lot of these more disruptive major logistical and transportation features, government locations, things like that where they're going to get the most bang for their buck in terms of attention and disruption really without direct violence. Now, certainly, there's back and forth on how much violence there is actually taking place. But in terms of just the disruption and the attention, this has been the protestors' MO. Bryan Strawser: There were a couple of pieces of related news feeding into the airport shutdown this morning that came out over the weekend. One was there were a number of protests throughout Hong Kong over the last couple of days. I think it's the 10th weekend in a row that there were major protests. There was tear gas fired, which is becoming also more of a norm to see that level of force from the police. There was also an interesting article, I want to say it was in Foreign Affairs Magazine, on their blog over the weekend, but it may have been elsewhere, about protest technology and false news and how both sides were using that in the Hong Kong protest through social media in order to put out their version of a narrative. I think the protesters have been very effective in using video to show their side of the story and what has gone on. Bryan Strawser: And now law enforcement clandestinely appears to be doing something very similar planting stories in social media from the other side to counter the narrative. And that's before we get to the point in our lives where this is being done by AI and machine intelligence and these deep fakes that we keep hearing about. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. It's not that it's unheard of that certainly opposition sides are putting videos or posting pictures that certainly depict a certain way, but just the level of engagement and use of those things is a little bit unique with the Hong Kong protests. It seems like everything that has historically been a tool or a method on either side has come into play, but also some of this new stuff or bordering up, as you said, bordering up to some of this new stuff with the fake images and fake video and fake sounds and all that stuff. It's not overt, but they're encroaching on that directly being used. Bryan Strawser: Right. It's almost like there's a different level of sophistication here that we haven't seen, which makes sense. We're talking about democratic protestors in Hong Kong and all the sense of innovation and freedom that comes with that. And China, the rising great power, who has made a name for themselves in some ways because of their technological capability really only rivaled by the United States in the great power conflict. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. I think, to your point, the level of technology use in everyday life, the level of education, the level of all those things are definitely coming into play here in a different way than we've seen in some of these other countries where they're upset about lack of access to those things and lack of access to be able to grow and to use technology and to have that accessibility, that's not the case between China and Hong Kong. They have it. Bray Wheeler: So it's almost like a protest on a different front, a 21st-century protest almost with just every technological piece coming into play, and we're seeing it and we're hearing it everywhere, it's being covered everywhere. Bryan Strawser: There were two other omnibus bits of news that came about with the protest today, things that happened this morning U.S. time. The first is that China made a statement about the protests that these were actions of terrorists. Bray Wheeler: Sprouts of terrorists. Bryan Strawser: Sprouts of terror. Okay, that's very Chinese. Sprouts of terrorism erupting in Hong Kong. Is this an escalation, do you think, in terms of rhetoric? Bray Wheeler: I certainly think it definitely is an escalation on China's part to use that kind of language, to throw that out, to not directly say it is terrorism, as you said, the Chinese language version of that or communication version of that, was sprouts of terrorism masking it as, "Hey, this is starting to evolve into this and we're starting to become concerned," becomes what will likely be a justification should they escalate this from use of military or force martial law that they declare. They're laying the seeds to be able to do that kind of stuff. Bryan Strawser: The other bit of news relates to what you just said, and that's could the military be used? Could there be more physical escalation? And there were almost what I would say some tinfoil hat wearers on social media this morning talking about, "Hey, there are convoys of military trucks making their way through Shinjin towards the Hong Kong border." And I think a lot of people went, "Yeah, okay. You look like somebody that might wear a tinfoil hat from time to time.". Bryan Strawser: But then China came out and admitted that, yes, we have placed 12,000... They described it as riot police, but the vehicles are clearly military. But of course there's not much differentiation in China between the two sometimes. So they're at the border, this appears not to be a conspiracy. They really are there. So this is a physical warning to the protesters that we may decide to assert ourselves. Bray Wheeler: Yeah, I think China is very much preparing for that possibility or at least playing the leverage that they have to be able to take control of the situation in a way that maybe doesn't even escalate to the use of it. But they're definitely starting to demonstrate and starting to position that use of force and those cards that they have available that certainly Hong Kong protesters do not have because the police are certainly not going to take their side necessarily in this situation. So they're at a disadvantage in that sense. So China's playing every advantage that they have without going full escalation, because it is a little bit of a game-changer, like we've talked in weeks past, where should China escalate to that moment, this becomes more likely a global situation rather than just a Hong Kong, China with some global awareness and monitoring because of Hong Kong's position in the global economy and its relationship with certain Western countries, it definitely takes a different face, should China use force in mass within Hong Kong. Bryan Strawser: And I would expect, and I'm speculating here if China decides to directly intervene with mainland China military or police that's going to happen extremely quickly and without warning. Right? It'll be like if I draw a parallel to what we saw in Cairo in 2011 with the Arab spring, we went from relatively easy to get around the city and safe to get around the city to people not being able to leave their condo or home because they couldn't cross town to get to work or to visit family. It's going to happen at that scale and speed and it's going to be very difficult to get people out. And I don't remember, there are 90,000 Americans there. The number is really high. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. It's a really, really high percentage of Americans and other Western country, citizens from other Western countries. And I think the interesting piece that comes into play that, I don't know how much impact it has, but it's a little bit of an interesting thought is should China elect, to your point, go in in mass and do it relatively quickly? Typically, that's something that would take place overnight. And then in the nighttime hours that they would just show up, take control, and when people wake up in the morning- Bryan Strawser: It's over. Bray Wheeler: It's over. It's a game-changer. What's happening though with these protests is a lot of them are happening afternoon, into the evening, in the overnight. So it's almost a 24/7 operation on the protester front. But there is no good moment for China to just sneak in, take control of Hong Kong and have it be done. They're going to be seen, it's going to be felt, it's not going to be quite the clandestine operation that I think China would like it to be. Bryan Strawser: So when it comes to Hong Kong, and then we can move onto the next two topics that we outlined for today, our message to businesses really remains the same. This is something that you need to continue to monitor. I think you've got to be cognizant of the fact that this may move so quickly you won't have an opportunity to respond or to put other plans in play. So now is the time to plan for those various contingencies. Do you want your expatriates there if the stuff goes down between Hong Kong citizens and the mainland? Do you want to move in advance of that? What continuity implications could this have for your business? And I think any way you slice this, you're running the risk of getting caught in the middle of this and then being unable to react until it's truly over. Bray Wheeler: And I think even just in probably to somewhat of a lesser degree, just as we've seen the airport being disrupted, and we've talked about this in weeks past too, just that Hong Kong is a travel hub. So even if you don't have an operation in Hong Kong but you use Hong Kong as a transit point to hit other countries, you may want to start evaluating whether or not in the short term, near term, that continues to be the spot that you want to transition folks through, or does Tokyo or Seoul or somewhere else become more of [crosstalk] the right spot for you? What's the risk-reward of doing that? Is it cost-effective to start making those switches now? Bryan Strawser: Yep. What's our second China topic? Bray Wheeler: Second China topic, still somewhat related to the Hong Kong issue, and an interesting nexus there too that I think not only plays in the line with China's message on Hong Kong, so it definitely has some global implications to it. But I think more to the point of what we're discussing here from a private-sector standpoint, from a corporate standpoint, is some branding issues with some different products. So over the weekend, several companies have gotten embroiled with some China controversy, Versace, Coach, and Disney, in terms of some t-shirts that these companies have put together in which they've listed Hong Kong, Macao, and Taipei or Taiwan as separate from China. Bray Wheeler: So Beijing, Shenzhen has been listed as the city with the country, so Shenzhen, China. But with Hong Kong and Macao, they're listed separately as just Hong Kong, Hong Kong or Macao, Macao. And then Taipei is Taipei, Taiwan, which in China's view is highly offensive to a one-China policy that they have and one China vision that they take issue with, but also feeds that narrative that's going on in Hong Kong and some of those sensitivities. Bray Wheeler: But I think just from a corporate branding standpoint, not only is it an issue itself just from that market and those Chinese customers looking at that and being offended by it and impacting market space, but also it leads to the need for corporations to really have somewhat of a review process with some of their products to highlight some of those sensitivities that may come into play and may impact you. We've seen it certainly with Israel and Palestine through products, cultural appropriation, use of different icons and symbols. The U.S. flag is always one. But just those things, when companies are using products or branding or things like that, these things pop up. They have an impact and they become a distraction. Bryan Strawser: From an international relations standpoint, this is one of the greatest sins you can commit in a playing field where China is present, is to refer to Hong Kong or Macao as separate than China. But the biggest sin of all in international relations where China's there is to refer to what they think of as Chinese Taipei, the wayward province of Taiwan, as Taiwan as an independent power. Right or wrong, that's the way diplomacy is conducted when you're talking about these things. And Disney and Versace and Coach are well respected international companies, particularly Disney who operates in China and really stepped in it with this approach. So China really had some words for them over the weekend and it's caused all three companies to apologize. Bray Wheeler: Yes. And like I was saying before, too, these types of situations are easily catchable, easily mitigated, but if they're not, they become front-page news. And to your point, particularly with China and the volume, and like we've talked about just right before, the circumstance of what's going on in Hong Kong and that narrative of Hong Kong being a part of China, when you step into it and then step in it in the middle of something else, becomes a serious brand component. And China's a big market and their a big player in the global economy. Bryan Strawser: Absolutely. So I'm not sure there's a thing here to monitor. Certainly, companies should be culturally sensitive on this particular topic. Make the right decision by your company. Bray Wheeler: When I think if you're fortunate enough to have or you've invested the resources into it from a reputation monitoring, from a crisis response monitoring, there's opportunities, we've seen it with other companies, company I used to work for became a cross-functional group that got put into place to review some of these things that, as a point for different merchandising or branding or communications or whatever it might be to be able to go and use it as a resource to look and say, "Hey, this looks all great, but if you do this we're going to have an issue because this thing, Hong Kong is separate from China, is going to be an issue." Or used before, Israel Palestine, is a common one, putting Palestine on things causes issues. Bray Wheeler: So there's really having a mechanism or having a thought process or starting to think about, from a rep management standpoint, from a incident response standpoint, starting to have some of those reviews or those conversations, highlighting those as potential issues at the very least could become effective in mitigating some of those, or at least getting ahead or being prepared to respond. Bryan Strawser: Yeah, I completely agree. I think that those are very important things to have in place. If you're going to do business on a global scale, then you need to understand the sensitivities involved in such. Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bryan Strawser: So our last topic for this week's edition is just in general about some current news around tariff and currency issues between China and the United States. There were two big announcements around this last week, both done by the president. The first is that he was adding a 10% tariff to products that were not currently seeing a tariff from China to the United States. China retaliated following that tariff announcement by saying that they were going to stop buying grain from the United States. Bryan Strawser: That's a pretty significant impact on the Midwest where most of the grain used in the world is grown, and China is the biggest market for grain in the world and buys a significant amount of grain from the United States. So hard to know where that's going. Interestingly enough, on NBC News this morning I saw that there was a poll of farmers in Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, I believe were the states, about the tariffs. And 57% said they supported the president's action. Bryan Strawser: The other thing that happened between the U.S. and China last week is that the United States for the first time declared China to be an international currency manipulator, that they were deliberately manipulating the yuan, the Chinese national currency, which then after an initial very negative response, China came back and said that they would not devalue the yuan in the international markets. Their initial response, by the way, is that this was a ridiculous accusation by the United States, but then within 12 hours they said, "Well, we won't be downgrading or otherwise manipulating the yuan." Bray Wheeler: And I think they were trying to combat the perception, at the very least, the perception that they were doing it in response to the tariffs as a weapon to counteract the tariffs that were put into place. And that it was reactionary rather than they did it because it was the right economical thing for China to do, independent of tariffs, was the narrative they were trying to re-put out after stepping in it. Bryan Strawser: So these are definitely two issues to watch, the tariff situation when it comes to grain, and the Chinese deciding not to buy U.S. grain. I'm not actually sure how sustainable that is. I think the grain in the world typically comes from the United States, although Russia grows a significant amount of grain as well. But I'm not sure if that throw will actually turn out to be true or not. But certainly the trade war continues to heat up, and that's definitely an issue that businesses should continue to monitor. Bray Wheeler: Yeah, I think especially going into the fall and winter, when typically the Midwest, the big producers of it are going to go into the winter season and having a lot of that stored up, and how long has that been stored and whether or not that can be sent over. So even though we've grown it and we're holding it, how does that play? I think it's, to your point, the sustainability of some of that is in question, but timing is certainly another piece to it too, the fact that this is taking place right now in comparison to that fall/winter time period where there's a little bit lower risk or pressure from it. We'll have to see. Bryan Strawser: That's it for this edition of the Managing Uncertainty podcast. We'll be back with our regular topical episode next Monday. Thanks for listening. Hope to hear from you again soon.

Once you've created your initial crisis management framework, how do you go about prioritizing your top risks for additional situation-based planning? That's the topic that we dive into today in this week's edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast. Bryghtpath Principal & CEO Bryan Strawser along with Consultant Bray Wheeler talk about how to shift from your established crisis management framework and plan to situational based planning for your top prioritized risks. Related episodes of our Managing Uncertainty Podcast and articles from our blog include: Managing Uncertainty Episode #1: Shouldn't we have a plan for alien invasion? Managing Uncertainty Episode #12: When the world falls down around you Managing Uncertainty Episode #55: Crisis Leadership Roundtable Managing Uncertainty Episode #59: All roads lead to one What the CEO needs to understand about planning for a crisis Crisis Communications 201: Crisis Protocols //static.leadpages.net/leadboxes/current/embed.js Episode Transcript Bryan Strawser: Hello and welcome to the Managing Uncertainty podcast. I'm Bryan Strawser, principal and CEO at Bryghtpath. Bray Wheeler: I'm Bray Wheeler, a consultant at Bryghtpath. Bryan Strawser: One that we've talked about, at least, in a couple of previous episodes is this really common call or email that we get from prospective clients. It usually starts with, "I don't have any kind of crisis plan or structure, but my executives have told me I need an active shooter plan." Bray Wheeler: Yup. Bryan Strawser: We always immediately steer them towards, "You might need an active shooter plan, but if you don't have anything else, what you first need to establish is a crisis management framework. You need a plan on you're going to deal with any major disruption that establishes, here's the team, here's the process, here's how you're going to communicate, here's how you're going to make decisions, here's how you're going to escalate things." When we talk about a crisis framework, that's what we're talking about. Bryan Strawser: So, we've talked about this several times. What we want to talk about today is, what happens when you have that in place, and now it's time to take a look around the company and say, "There's probably some specific things I need to write a plan for, but what are those things? So, what do we do next?" Bray Wheeler: I think, people can get hung up on evaluating different things and scoring different things, and talking to different people. All of those things are important, and all of it needs to come into play, but you really just need to start somewhere. And some obvious places that you can start to have those conversations that kind of whittle yourself in are, "Do we have something recent that we were not prepared for that did not go well?" Say, you're a bank or financial institution, "We had an armed robbery. We didn't have anything in place." Probably need a plan for that. You know, "Something that can help guide us through that kind of situation." That's kind of an obvious starting point, but it's also looking at, what are your top enterprise risks? And start the conversation there. What's have other functions of the company, done any kind of impact, or likelihood analysis that you can borrow from. You can get way down a rabbit hole on a lot of that stuff. Bryan Strawser: You can totally turn this into rocket science. I think that's a bad route to go. You can do all this analysis of frequency, impact, whatever. Bray Wheeler: Vulnerability. Bryan Strawser: Vulnerability. You could spend months making heat maps of your risk. Bray Wheeler: That's not helpful. Bryan Strawser: It's not helpful. I remember a project once, internal to an organization many years ago, where a division came to our crisis team and said, "We wanted this detailed threat analysis of our organization so that we can plan around the biggest risk to the organization," and we all looked at them and said, "The number one phone call that we get from your division is the power is out. Can we start by having a process to deal with when the power is out?" They said, "No. That can't be the answer, it's got to be much more complicated than that." Bryan Strawser: They spent weeks doing analysis and they came back and said, "Hey, our top risk is the fact the power goes out and we don't have generators at these particular facilities." Bray Wheeler: Yup. Bryan Strawser: So, you can turn this into rocket science. Don't do that. Bray Wheeler: No. Bryan Strawser: I think Bray's got it right. What are the obvious things that you need to plan for, or what are the things that are driven by regulatory requirements that you have to do? Start there. For example, if you're a financial institution, you mentioned armed robbery, but let's go to a regulatorily driven issue. If you're a financial institution that's subject to the FDIC's and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currencies audit process, then the FFIEC guidelines say, fourteen years after H1N1, that you... I'm sorry, nine years after H1N1, you have to have a pandemic plan. So, one of the scenarios that you need to plan for, is you need to have a pandemic scenario because, from a regulatory standpoint, you're required to have it. So, that's an obvious one. Start there, because you have to have it. Bray Wheeler: Well, exactly. There's a lot of work being done, whether it's large or small organization and no matter the type of organization, there's a lot of work that's already done that's, people have prioritized these things. Business initiatives, common things that call centers to get called about, or security is getting called about, regulated information that says you need to have these different things. Those are all easy places to start. You just kind of flop them on the table and say, "Okay. What are the ones for sure we have to have? Let's start there." Then as you tick through, or other things bubble up, then you start to address them. Bray Wheeler: Say you're a mid-sized company, you have an office in the Midwest, and one smaller branch in Florida, probably don't need a hurricane plan. You just need a plan to give shelter to that office, a close-up plan, something for those employees. You don't need a full-fledged organizational plan if you don't have anything that's critical down in Florida. If most of your organization is in Minnesota, a hurricane plan probably isn't the place to start. Bryan Strawser: Right. Right. I like to tell people, we like to tell people, I should say, we want to look at the obvious risks first. The things that you know are going to happen to you. The things that you're regulatorily required to have planned around. Then I think you can start to get into the outer rings of, "Well, I've covered the things I know are going to happen. I've covered the things I have to have for regulatory purposes. Here are some things that I think are the next circle of risk here." I think you kind of keep going in circles from there as you need to have scenario specific plans. Bray Wheeler: Well, I think even as you get... As you start to build those things out and you couple years in and you have a dozen, let's say you're really doing a really good job, and you have like two dozen plans of different scenarios, it's important to go back to those plans you've already created and reassess, or "Hey, we've moved in a different direction as a company, this risk that the company is talking about generally, is becoming a bigger deal. Hey, we did a plan for that two years ago. Let's pull that back out and make sure it aligns to what it is that we're talking about, or the direction that we're going." Bryan Strawser: Update. Bray Wheeler: I just think that it's, to kind of beat on the point that we're making, it's real, real easy to go down a rabbit hole and it's real, real easy to make, even these plans, more complicated than they need to be. We've seen a lot of different organizations try to account for every little nuance of a situation. That's probably not helpful. When you get into that situation, nobody's pulling that plan out to address it. Really what you're trying to accomplish with these top risks, these more specific plans or annexes, or whatever you want to call them on top of your crisis plan to address the situation is, what are those key unique things in that situation that we need to make sure that we hit right away, or that we need to act right way, or we need to make decisions on right away? Then what are those other nuances that we start accounting for as we move through the situation? It's not another 14 pages on how to do something. That's not helpful. Bryan Strawser: We could probably do a whole episode just about how to construct plans in an intelligent and effective manner. A couple of things that you brought up that I think are worth elaborating on here, is when are talking about developing these scenario-specific plans, these really should be structured as annexes to your crisis management plan, or crisis management framework, whatever you're calling it, because essentially what you're saying is, "I'm going to take the framework by which I always manage a crisis, I'm going to add this plan content for this specific scenario or situation or type of scenario, I'm going to use that on top of my framework." Bryan Strawser: Maybe you've got specific checklists by role. Maybe you've got some specific assessment questions, you got some specific strategies you're going to follow, but all of that has to be built, that annex has to be constructed in a flexible way, because to your point, you can over-structure this, where it's too rigid, and you find yourself in the situation where the real-life scenario is slightly off of how you thought it was going to be, and now your annex is shit, because the underlying scenario is different. Or you didn't foresee the combination of factors that got you into the place that you're in. Bray Wheeler: Or you've positioned it in a way that the people that are responsible for working through those checklists, or kind of working through the process, or helping facilitate that conversation, get stuck up on what order they're supposed to be doing things in, and, "Oh. We didn't call this person, or this thing didn't get done, we can't possibly move on to the next thing." You have to keep adapting and you have to keep moving against whatever the situation is. Those plans should really be there to guide you and make sure that you're accounting for the nuances of those situations. Bryan Strawser: Part of what I think you have to account for, as well, in all of this, is that you may have developed plans for a number of different scenarios, planning annexes, for a number of different scenarios, your situation that you find yourself in now, is a combination of scenarios. Right? Bray Wheeler: Yup. Bryan Strawser: So, you're pulling two or three plan annexes out, that you got to execute. How do you make that interact? Did you plan it in that way? Do even know, the situational question, which is, do you know that there are really three things going on? You may only see two of them at the time. You may not have the awareness to know there's a third. Bryan Strawser: So, anyway, the point is, that the annex needs to be able to interoperate. Part of what you want to think about when we started getting into this complex crisis management situation, is what do you do when you have the multiple, simultaneous incidents, or you have the incident, the crisis situation, that has multiple impacts that fit your scenario? Like you've had cyber-attack, and you're under cyber-attack, and now you have a physical attack in your lobby. Okay, those are two same, might be the same crisis, you don't know it yet, but now you've got simultaneous issues going on that you've got to deal with. Bray Wheeler: As you're working through and trying to identify because I think that's an important point when you're thinking about what risks to prepare for, what's your top risk, it really going back through the annexes that you have, and, or, thinking about, "Okay. Our top risk is a data breach". Great. Okay. "So, let's start there." It's important to have that exercise too, kind of once you're done, a little bit of an after-action, or a little bit of a debrief off of it, going, "Okay. What are those other things," to your point, "That might manifest out of this or may have caused this? Is it a physical security thing? Does that need to be the next thing that we go into a little bit more detail on?" Bray Wheeler: One I always enjoy that our previous... Bryan Strawser: Our previous life. Bray Wheeler: Our previous life. Was the having an annex for a terrorist attack and an annex for a mass-casualty event? Does it really matter, as that organization, the nature of the situation? Is really what you're doing is managing a mass-casualty attack, and later on, it turns into something else. So, as you're thinking about those top risks, it's important to be clear about what it is you're trying to address, because in that case, that organization, there's no responsibility there from a terrorist standpoint. Really, you're treating it as a mass-casualty event. You don't really care what the motivation of the attacker is at that point. Bray Wheeler: So, it's being really clear as you're laying out what that annex is, what that top risk is, that you're dialing into the right thing that's going to have the impact to your organization that you're accounting for, and not something that's kind of sexy, or high profile, or gives it a different cool spin on something. It's really getting down to the nuts and bolts of what that situation is. Bryan Strawser: Yeah, I think you make an important point. This could be overdone. We've seen this. We have often seen plan annexes that we're being asked to edit, coming in as a consultant, I think we read a 170 page one back at the first of the year on a... To be fair, it was on a complex topic, and don't want to minimize that the underlying issue was a serious one, but that it was about three times as long as it really needed to be. Bryan Strawser: You've got to allow flexibility in these plans. You have to make sure they connect to the underlying incident or crisis management process, and they need to able to interoperate with other annexes when you have these multi-impact, complex, crisis situations, that we hope you never have to face, but the reality is if you're in a big company, big organization, sooner or later, you're going to run into that scenario. So, you want to make sure that your annexes and your plans all fit what those unseen possibilities are because we know it will be the combination of events that you never imagined would happen. Bryan Strawser: The whole time we've been sitting here in this podcast talking, thinking about these multi-impact events, I just keep going back to Japan and the 2011 earthquake off the coast of Natori Province, and that was one of the largest earthquakes in world history, followed by this massive tsunami, and then this rising nuclear issue at Fukushima that came after. It all interconnected, and the Japanese government just didn't have situational awareness to see the big picture, and really struggled in the response that should have been much easier for a company, or for a country rather, that was that prepared. Bray Wheeler: Well, yeah, because individually- Bryan Strawser: They nailed it. They had it. Bray Wheeler: They could execute each one of those situations, probably, brilliantly. Bryan Strawser: But not all three at the same time. Bray Wheeler: But all three at the same time, there wasn't that awareness. Bryan Strawser: So, as you think about how to plan for your top risks, as you build that crisis framework and you're moving forward, our advice, go for the obvious and regulatorily driven risks, and then start to look out from there. Whatever you do, don't turn this into rocket science. Bray Wheeler: Keep it simple. Bryan Strawser: Keep it simple. Keep your planning simple. Make your annexes interoperate. We wish you luck. Thanks for listening to this episode of the Managing Uncertainty podcast. We'll be back with you with a new episode next week. Thanks for listening.

In this episode of our BryghtCast edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast for the week of September 23rd, 2019,  Bryghtpath Principal & CEO Bryan Strawser and Consultant Bray Wheeler take a look at three current risks and upcoming events: National Hurricane Center: Tropical Storm Karen Al-Jazeera: UN General Assembly 2019: All the latest updates NY Times:  Protesting Climate Change, Young People Take to Streets in a Global Strike Episode Transcript Bryan Strawser: Hello and welcome to the Managing Uncertainty Podcast BryghtCast edition for the week of September 23rd, 2019. I'm Bryan Strawser, principal and CEO here at Bryghtpath. Bray Wheeler: I'm Bray Wheeler, consultant at Bryghtpath. Bryan Strawser: And we're going to get started with our three topics for the week. I'm going to let Bray start off with tropical storm Karen. Bray Wheeler: Tropical storm Karen, another one that's brewing out there in the Atlantic. Over the weekend and into this morning, the national hurricane center gave some updated tracking, as well as updates on what they expect that storm to do. I know we talked about last week that it's pretty active in the Atlantic, pretty active in the Pacific. That trend continues. But Karen, in particular, which is now a tropical storm, they expect to grow into hurricane strength. Unfortunately, it's tracking over a lot of the areas in the Caribbean that have already been well hit, in particular, Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Bray Wheeler: They do expect that to reach hurricane status here pretty shortly, in the next day or two. That track has the potential to hit the U.S. coast. It's another storm that's out there, could certainly cross over the Bahamas again. That tracking doesn't look likely at the moment, but we all know those things can change. But this one is, they do think, strong enough that it could- Bryan Strawser: Might sustain its way through? Bray Wheeler: ... sustain its way all the way up to the U.S. mainland. So. Bryan Strawser: And where is this, potentially, if it does come to the mainland, are there any landfall prediction areas yet? Bray Wheeler: Nothing yet. The closest it'll get, it won't even reach the U.S. by Friday. I imagine as we get later on into this week- Bryan Strawser: We'll get a better view. Bray Wheeler: ... we'll get a better picture. But right now, it could be anywhere from Florida, up through Virginia, is what it looks like. So Carolinas are probably dead center, at least, if current course- Bryan Strawser: It's pretty far out though, for that kind of forecast. Bray Wheeler: Pretty far out. Bryan Strawser: What companies should be doing right now is monitoring the storm, watching updates from the National Hurricane Center. I would not go in for crazy projections from local news. Go to the source. Look at the National Hurricane Center maps, read their forecasts. They do a Facebook live now, and I believe they have an audio podcast you can listen to, if you want to hear their forecasters talk and provide more context than the written forecast. Bray Wheeler: Yeah, because really all they have right now is a confidence that these tropical-storm-force winds, rainfall, flooding, mudslides, is really only Puerto Rico and the US and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday. So, that's really all they're confident in. But as Bryan said, pay attention to the National Hurricane Center. Just take some time to review your plans, review your processes, if you haven't already done so as we've been talking. Just arm yourself because we're still in hurricane season. It doesn't officially end for another month and a half, but we all know that that can go longer, so- Bryan Strawser: That's right. Might as well be ready. Bryan Strawser: So the next item of discussion is if you're a new Yorker, everyone's favorite event to deal with in New York, which is the United Nations General Assembly meeting. This is the meeting, the kickoff of the General Assembly session every year where something like three-quarters of the world's heads of state or heads of government come to New York to make major speeches as principals in front of the United Nations General Assembly. It's a tradition that the President of the United States is almost always a speaker along with almost, I think about three-quarters of the world's leaders speak in front of the General Assembly. Bryan Strawser: It is a security nightmare because all of them come with their own security details and motorcades and the U.S. Secret Service in the United States Diplomatic Protection Service, part of the state department, are really helping to manage all of this with NYPD and the UN police who actually control what's going on inside the United Nations complex there on the river in New York City. Bray, what's going on in New York? Bray Wheeler: Traffic. Bryan Strawser: Yee-haw to all of that. Bray Wheeler: Your traffic report for New York is congested. No, really for New York right now, I mean there's a lot of... for businesses that are in there and they're probably grown accustomed to this because it happens every year and so probably the amount of impact is pretty minimal. But some of the topical issues that are kind of coming out there that companies and organizations should be kind of keyed into is one, and today they kind of kicked it and had a kind of a pre-meeting around climate, and that's gotten a lot of media coverage, globally, around what that is. A lot of the- Bryan Strawser: Yeah, there was the climate strike protests over the weekend here in Minnesota. It's several thousand people turn out for the one that was at the Minnesota state capital. Bray Wheeler: There's one in DC today that's already prompted several arrests and a lot of congestion and disruption there just from a logistical and transportation standpoint, but really that topic, in particular, you know, comes with all sorts of kind of baggage here domestically in the US but just from a topical standpoint, it's a lot of the global countries are looking to kind of reposition that as kind of a Paris Accord kind of part two conversation. And the US has largely been kind of sidelined a little bit in that conversation probably both on purpose and on both sides. So that just, in particular, that's going to get a lot of media coverage. There's a lot of different topics they're talking through that will probably carry over into a lot of the speeches. Bray Wheeler: Brazil's president is typically kind of traditionally the first speaker at the UN and so there's an expectation that the Amazon topic, Amazon rainforest burning topic will come into play there. But that will just, there'll be a lot of discussions and a lot that seems to be the big theme for them. The other kind of major theme at the moment is around Iran in the Middle East. I'm certainly off the kind of Saudi attack as well as the British oil tankers that Iran has seized and kind of an update on that front. So Iran today has actually released that British oil tanker, said it's free to leave whenever it would like. Bryan Strawser: Finally. Bray Wheeler: Funny enough, kind of right before the UN General Assembly. So it's free to leave whenever it would like. Bryan Strawser: Finally. Bray Wheeler: Funny enough, kind of right before the UN General Assembly. So what's interesting about that is the US has greatly restricted Iran's foreign minister's movement within New York, which isn't, we kind of... We have some control over a lot of that in terms of their movement around New York and where they can go and how they can come in. Bray Wheeler: But once we get kind of on UN grounds, they're free to kind of go where they want, but we've greatly restricted them, which puts them in a position to be confronted by a lot of different countries, representatives, things like that to kind of force the issue in the kind of the conversation there. So that kind of Iran topic, which bleeds into kind of a broader conversation around that Middle East conflict that's going on seems to be the other kind of key elements that'll play out there. So. Bryan Strawser: So it's always kind of the... At the UN General Assembly when the heads of state are there, it's always kind of the... There's a little bit of proxy combat by speech that goes on, on stage. Right? I mean we saw many years ago during George W. Bush's presidency he was on... He spoke before the UN General Assembly and then I believe the next speaker was the then-dictator from Venezuela who got up and immediately talked about the smell of sulfur and the fact that devil had just been on the stage and there's just a lot of interesting back and forth and in proxy conflict. Bryan Strawser: Will we see something like that between Iran and Iran in Saudi Arabia or are either speaking? Bray Wheeler: Probably, it does sound like they're speaking. The notable ones that aren't speaking, that seem to be garnering the most attention is Russian President Vladimir Putin is not attending, he typically doesn't attend. Xi Jinping from China is not attending this year, typically doesn't attend but has in the past. But then Benjamin Netanyahu, who's also kind of a lightning rod for these kinds of conversations to make sure that, you know, he's getting his jabs or his points across in his speeches is not attending kind of based on his of domestic- Bryan Strawser: Election situation- Bray Wheeler: Domestic politics. So he is always kind of one to kind of spur some conversation he won't be attending. So I think it leaves a lot of room for some of those less outspoken voices or less notable voices to get some air time. Bray Wheeler: So I think certainly people are, are kind of keyed up for Brazil's president to kind of talk about the Amazon. Donald Trump is speaking next and then after that, it'll go down the list. So there definitely probably will be some conversation around that and certainly in the security council meetings and things like that that both these issues, as well as others, will kind of come to the forefront. Bryan Strawser: And then, I believe our last issue for discussion on this week's episode is the climate change crisis, so to speak, and the climate change protest that happened over the weekend. Bray Wheeler: Yes, we touched on some of that, but yeah, really that the climate change forum and conversation are getting a lot of attention right now as the UN is convening. The kind of teenage- Bryan Strawser: Greta? Bray Wheeler: Poster girl, Greta Thunberg, I believe is how you pronounce her name. Apologies if that's a mistake, but she has garnered quite a bit of attention today. She actually spoke- Bryan Strawser: She spoke with the General Assembly, right? At the forum? Bray Wheeler: Yeah, at this climate forum today. There have also been some memes of her as President Trump walks into the room and things like that. So she's definitely getting a lot of attention. She spurred a lot of support across the globe. Certainly here domestically we're seeing a lot of things in the US in terms of protest that's happening, as Bryan mentioned in Minneapolis this past weekend, in DC today or on the country, but also internationally. In particular in Europe where she's from. But there's just a lot of... There's is going to be a lot of conversation around that and a lot of, I think greater pressure for companies to start kind of reevaluating some of their stances where they're at, if kind of this conversation trend continues that there's going to be a bigger conversation likely coming that companies and organizations are probably going to have to start keying up for, more so than probably they have in the past. Bryan Strawser: Well I think you hit upon something that we don't always think about in these situations and that is that the protests and events this past weekend going into the rest of the week had been primarily aimed at government about them taking action and, you know, passing regulation and moving towards a more renewable energy focus future. But like other activist causes that we've seen, I would predict that this also shifts towards how do we apply pressure to organizations bomb to reform their own policies and approaches to move towards renewable energy and other factors because they can get there faster and they are more respondent to pressure than the government is. The government's usually the lagging organization here. Right? Bray Wheeler: Wait until the next vote. Bryan Strawser: Well, wait until the next vote. Yeah. I mean by all predictions, the youth vote in 2020 the United States is going to be epic in terms of the size of the vote, the number of voters that will be coming out and particularly in comparison to to Gen X and Gen Y, which are relatively small in terms of the generation compared to the Baby Boomers and the the Z-ers, or whatever. There are multiple names for Gen Z, but I think that as we're seeing in other elements and as I think we've seen come out in some polling data more recently, the Z-ers want companies to be involved in social change. Bryan Strawser: They see companies as agents of that. They make pie decisions based upon social involvements and that we could see them put pressure on companies to act on climate change, gun control. I mean there's a whole host of topics that I think have come up more recently around this. They're not afraid to act on that. Whereas opposed, you know, people... I'm an X-er. People of my generation are much less likely to make a decision about where to shop based on politics. Bray Wheeler: Right. One, I just think that their... It makes sense, too, because that generation, that population, is growing up seeing and hearing and things like that, you know, there, there are big issues in terms of the climate, the environment, the way that businesses kind of package and process and build and manufacture and grow and expand and cities and how people's, you know, habits and things like that... They're very aware of what's happening there, and they are a big enough block that they can start to raise their voice and start to put some pretty good pressure on companies. Maybe not right away. They obviously don't have kind of the economic boost, to kind of challenge the... They don't have the buying power to sustain that right now. Bryan Strawser: Not yet. Bray Wheeler: They're coming. And I think there's a lot of Gen Y, Gen X, things like that, that would kind of go along for the ride a little bit. You know, certainly there are ones that would oppose it, too. But you know, I just think it's that topic of conversation and not just because it's kind of at the forefront of the General Assembly, but it's kind of prompted that issue for discussion, as companies and organizations in general really need to start thinking about their habits, the way that they operate, things like that. Bray Wheeler: It's probably not an immediate change. That's not realistic, but you know that pressure is coming and however you feel about the topic, we all like cleaner air, we all like cleaner water, you know? So it's one of those things where it's not the worst thing to start thinking about that and preparing yourself to kind of be at the forefront. Probably not a space you want to be too much of a fast follower in, as we've said before. But you know, it's definitely a conversation that's not going away in comparison to kind of all the other distractions that are happening and all the other topics that are garnering attention, too. Bryan Strawser: Right. Bray Wheeler: It's a major topic now. Bryan Strawser: Well and I think what I would add to that is just I think the practicality for companies is if you're not taking a stance today, that as you think about managing your organization's reputation and the kind of monitoring and intelligence monitoring you might be doing, these kinds of social issues, climate change, gun control, others, it's time to start considering that as a part of your reputation strategy. I'm not advocating for taking a position either way on any of these issues, but I think companies want... Companies should be monitoring what's being said about them in relation to these... Think about the top 15, 20 social issues that are going on. Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bryan Strawser: Where pressure's starting to come to businesses. Companies should start monitoring around those specific issues when it comes to reputational intelligence. Bray Wheeler: And if it's not on your kind of top 10, top 15 list, you should probably start putting it on there or at least having that conversation to explore getting it on there. Because, as Bryan said, there's a lot of things you can do without even having to be public about what it is that you're doing. And there's, you know, there's nothing you have to do today other than start having a conversation and start thinking about how your organization fits into that narrative. Bryan Strawser: That's it for this edition, the BryghtCast edition of the Managing Uncertainty podcast. We'll be back with another episode next week.

In this episode of our BryghtCast edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast for the week of September 30th, 2019,  Bryghtpath Principal & CEO Bryan Strawser and Consultant Bray Wheeler take a look at three current risks and upcoming events: South China Morning Post:  As it happened - Hong Kong protester shot in chest, six live rounds fired on National Day. New York Times: In Pictures - China's National Day Parade Features Pomp and Artillery South China Morning Post: China's National Day parade, as it happened FBI: 2018 Crime Statistics Released FBI: Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program //static.leadpages.net/leadboxes/current/embed.js Episode Transcript Bryan Strawser: Hello, and welcome to the Managing Uncertainty Podcast. This is Bryan Strawser, principal and CEO at Bryghtpath. Bray Wheeler: This is Bray Wheeler, consultant at Bryghtpath. Bryan Strawser: This is our BryghtCast edition for the week of September 30th, 2019 where we take apart two or three events, stories, announcements, and talk about what it means for companies and nonprofit organizations in the private sector. Bray, what do we got today? Bray Wheeler: We have today just a couple of items today, everybody's favorite topic that we've been talking about all probably be for quite some time, Hong Kong. What is new? We've avoided talking about this just a little bit to avoid fatigue and the fact that the situation remains as is until over the last few days, particularly Monday here this week where Hong Kong police for the first time in all these months of protests actually fired a live round or more at protesters, but actually hit a protester with the live round. Bray Wheeler: This is the first time that violent force has been used by Hong Kong police against the protesters. The protesters reignited some pretty heavy protest and different actions over the last few days, including setting fires, shutting down the subway, blocking traffic, kind of all of their MOs, but very much picked up the intensity of what they had been doing over the last couple of weeks anyway. The reports are that this police officer fell threatened, he was being attacked according to him and so ended up firing off shots. Bray Wheeler: In addition to that, Hong Kong police have also fired live rounds into the air over the past 24 to 48 hours, so more live ammunition being used, not necessarily directed at people, but definitely being discharged. That's all to say in the context. This is all happening in the context of China's National Day or the 70th anniversary of communist party rule. There are a big celebration and parade here on Tuesday this week in which all the pomp and circumstance that China does with these different national days. This being the 70th anniversary, it was a little bit bigger, unveiled some new weapons, but kind of the unique piece to Hong Kong was a couple of things. Bray Wheeler: One, Carrie Lam was an honored guest, which isn't out of the norm, however, was highlighted as kind of a guest. Then the president of China Xi Jinping actually made comments in his speech almost from the get-go around "no force can shake the status of our great motherland, no force can obstruct the advance of the Chinese people and Chinese nation." He also went on to say that they would maintain the lasting prosperity and stability of Hong Kong and Macau, so- Bryan Strawser: Specifically called them out. Bray Wheeler: Specifically called them out, so it was definitely left no mistake, as the New York Times reporter points out left, no mistake that Hong Kong is on the minds of Chinese leaders right now. Bryan Strawser: There's a couple of things to unpack here around all of this. I think the first is this appears to be an escalation on the part of the governments in Hong Kong. They arrested over a hundred protesters, I believe it was, during this weekend's protest. They shot at the one individual and wounded him, I believe. I don't know what... what was the size of the protest this weekend? I don't know that I caught that in the news, but how did this compare to some of the protests we'd seen previously? Bray Wheeler: I think in terms of the... so there were two simultaneous protests going on. I... trying to see if I can find the numbers right in front of me. The more violent actions I think are just within the norm of what they have been over the last couple of weeks, but their intensity of what they were doing increased, which was notable, but there was also a peaceful protest March in Hong Kong as well, kind of an anti-Chinese day parade, which was much better attended in terms of protest side, or protest size rather. Bray Wheeler: But I think it's all within the average norm of what we've seen. I don't think it's surged to the millions like it was at the height of it, but it was definitely enough to get attention of security forces as well as, kind of notable in terms of counter parade to China. Bryan Strawser: The second part of this was just the other part here to unpack I think is the 70th-anniversary celebration that kicked off today, October 1st as we're recording this. These are some pretty strong statements from the president, not just about Chinese dominance and expected Chinese growth as a great power in the years to come, but these specific commentaries around Macau and Hong Kong, Hong Kong in particular. I think it just goes back to the New York Times' take on this, that we're going to see the change in Hong Kong now. Maybe not at a more glacial pace as we were expecting for a long time, but a more aggressive and deliberate manner to bring Hong Kong more in line with Chinese norms. Is that your perception from this as well? Bray Wheeler: Yeah, and I think it was also pointed out in some of the opinion and commentary pieces, which I also agree with, maybe not as on the same timeline as it was suggested, but kind of Hong Kong's diminishing importance due to the trade war battles, skirmish, whatever you want to call it between the US and China. The fact that Hong Kong's importance is diminishing as a part of that right now coupled with these democratic protests. It was suggested that we could see a definitive change in Hong Kong eventually, and sooner rather than later just based on the fact that China feels like they can get away with a little bit more now that it's not as important, they will face less international pressure, there's less domestic pressure, there's more violence going on, kind of asserting their needs to get the situation under control. Bray Wheeler: It also flies, this was suggested in some of the reporting, around China National Day that the president of China has been working to kind of homogenize China rather than expanding on the diversity that China has touted a little bit for several decades as a part of what they're trying to accomplish, that they're actually going in the opposite direction, which is probably going to cause him more problems in the future, but there's that part of it too where they're trying to assert the one-China homogenous idea what's going on. Bray Wheeler: There's a lot of contexts. There's a lot of factors at play with Hong Kong right now that probably doesn't bode well for what we were used to as Hong Kong a year ago, two years ago, six months ago to what we're going to see in six months, a year from now, two years from now. I think it's potentially at a tipping point, and it certainly has continued to escalate. Bray Wheeler: For companies, we've been talking about this in different ways of do you have a BC plan, do you have an EVAC plan, are you thinking about how your operations work in Hong Kong, those kinds of things. I think if you haven't already, not to sound too alarmist here, but if you haven't already, now really is the time because as we've seen since the beginning of this, 115 days I think it is of protest activity, there's been no de-escalation of what has gone on. There have been no real signs of getting back to what was considered normal. It's only increasing now, and the fact that there are some violent tactics being used both by protestors and by security forces, it's probably going to continue. There's no way, kind of- Bryan Strawser: Right. Bray Wheeler: You can't put the lid back on that. Bryan Strawser: Can't put the toothpaste back in the tube. Bray Wheeler: Yes. Bryan Strawser: As we were talking to this morning in my office prior to recording the podcast, this is also probably the beginning of the time when companies need to think about is Hong Kong in the longterm where we want to operate? Is... For a lot of companies, Hong Kong is their base of operations for Asia. That's where their headquarters or regional headquarters is. That's where a lot of American expats, for example, base themselves. Same for the Commonwealth countries, Hong Kong, of course, being part of the United Kingdom for so long. Bryan Strawser: But a lot of these companies, many of these companies are starting to consider is Hong Kong the place we want to be 20 years from now if we're going to see more movement towards Hong Kong looking more like the rest of China? Do we stay there, or do we decamp to another westernized country that plays by a western ruleset here, and for a lot of countries, that Singapore where, again, we have a former British, mostly British base of operations that's an independent city-country, city-state, now and operates in that way and typically follows western norms, leaving out the caning and things like that that goes on. Bryan Strawser: But this isn't a today thing, but as you pointed out if you haven't already looked at your BC plans now, it's really the last chance we're going to get to take a solid look at this. It's also I think the beginning of the time in which you need to evaluate is Hong Kong where you want to be in the longterm or is there another location that is going to be better suited for you 5, 7, 10 years down the road? Bray Wheeler: Yeah, and we don't get a cut from Singapore for saying it. I think all preference would be to be able to have those of basis of, or entry points into Asia both through Hong Kong, through Singapore, through other locations in that region, but the viability of Hong Kong right now going forward as of now, if the current trajectory stays in place- Bryan Strawser: Yeah, the longterm thought process, where does it take us? Bray Wheeler: ... you have to really look, you have to really look at that. Bryan Strawser: Back in... when was the handover, in 1997? Bray Wheeler: Yes. Bryan Strawser: Right? I was 23 in 1997. I remember watching this, and I had no clue what this would mean in the longterm, but here we are almost 22 years, we're 22 years past the handover, or close to. I think that it's the end of the year is the anniversary, and you're starting to see those first big steps towards significant change there. Definitely, one that you need to keep an eye on, and our recommendations are to look at your BC planning and start to think longterm. Is this where you want to be? Bray Wheeler: EVAC plans as well, travel itineraries- Bryan Strawser: If you need to get out of there quickly. Bray Wheeler: ... just kind of taking a holistic look and assuming that, "Hey, this gets shut down, this goes martial law, this goes in a direction where we're kind of isolated," what is it that you're going to need to do in order to keep your people safe, continue your operations, things like that, so holistic look right now is, as you mentioned, kind of your last opportunity while it's still relatively... there's some stability left. Now is the time. Bryan Strawser: Our last story for this episode is from the New York Times, but the release is really the FBI releasing the 2018 Uniform Crime Reporter, UCR, which was released yesterday, Monday, September 30th. The big headline here is that violent crime in the United States including homicides declined in 2018 for the second straight year according to FBI data that was released on Monday. Overall, the nation's crime rate dropped by 6.5%, which was led by us 6.9% decline in the property crime rate that 16 years in a row in which property crime dropped. The homicide rate dropped by 6%, primarily driven by significant declines and homicides in both Baltimore and Chicago. On the other side of the equation, rape, sexual assault, as the FBI calls it, and aggravated sexual assault climbed in 2018. Bray Wheeler: Now, they're suggesting it's a... they're wondering if that's a little bit as a result of the Me Too Movement where there's been greater reporting, greater documentation of those crimes, excuse me, that that's a part of the reason that that kicks in. There's also been a lot of work around that particular crime type in terms of the crime reports over the last 10 to 15 years, better documentation of that because it's a little bit inconsistent in terms of how states and counties report those in, so I think there's been an improvement on defining and accounting for those as well. Bryan Strawser: The New York Times says that the number of rapes reported in 2018 increased by 2.7%, and it was the only category of violent crime that rose last year, according to the Uniform Crime Report. Criminologists said that it was not clear whether more sexual assaults were occurring or whether more people were reporting assaults amid the Me Too Movement. The FBI also complicates the results because they revised the way they classified rape to include both males as victims and expanding the definition of rape to include types of attacks that were not previously counted. Bryan Strawser: By the way, those guidelines were changed in 2013, and since those guidelines have changed, the number of reported rapes to law enforcement has grown more than 18%. We should point out the Uniform Crime Report, although this is usually the crime stats that folks use, it only includes crimes that have been reported to law enforcement. Bray Wheeler: Correct. Bryan Strawser: There's another survey that's conducted by the Department of Justice called the National Crime Victimization Survey, which is also done every year, and that is a sampling of individuals to determine if they have been victims of crime, and it reports that data. Those numbers are always higher because some folks are involved, or I'm sorry, some folks who are victims of crime, and they never report it to law enforcement, but you can look at the increases between the two and draw some correlation. Bryan Strawser: For companies, some ways that you can use this data, it can be a key source of objectable, objectable, objective data that you can use in policy discussions. You can use it as a source of data to assess your security posture and actions that you may want to take or not take. We consider this of the key annual reports to read and understand for the security profession, particularly looking at actions around your major site locations, cities, states, et cetera, counties. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. It's a good reference document. It's kind of a good, I want to say the source of truth because to your point, it's only reported, and it's only those cities and counties and law enforcement entities that report in. Not all do or do in the same way, but it really is a good bellwether, especially as you're looking across the nation. If you operate in different cities and different locations, understanding what the trends are there to make sure that your posture's, depending on your industry, are appropriate to what's happening in those areas and where you should add resources or potentially subtract. Now, of course, this data is from 2018, so it's almost a year old, which is always the case because they take a lot of time to scrub through it, but it definitely the, in terms of the trends and things that they see, you can take a look at those and use those as you're planning out your security posture. Bryan Strawser: I was always like to see this data. I mean, I'm a data guy by nature. I like things to be... I like to have things proven to me using data. But I think of the things that always helps me with as a security professional is, although I think the world is more uncertain and riskier today than it has ever been in my lifetime, and it never, to me, the world never really gets safer, I do think that most people in the United States, in particular, think that there's this enormous amount of violent crime and homicide. Bryan Strawser: In fact, we're at a near 50-year low of violent crime and homicide rate in this country. It's down by more than half from the 1990s when I was coming out of high school on my own into a college, so I like to see the data, but most folks are totally shocked by that when they see a graph of this and how far it's dropped, and particularly when we look at news coming out of Baltimore in Chicago and Washington, D.C., which I will note that D.C. is way up 2018 into 2019. Bray Wheeler: D.C. and Philadelphia- Bryan Strawser: Philadelphia. Bray Wheeler: ... I think were the two high risers. Bryan Strawser: Washington, D.C. was up 36% for homicide rates, and Philadelphia was up 10%. I should point out here that the important data because we're looking at crime data, although they do report whole numbers, the important data is the crime rates because you need to control crime, you need to control crime data by population. A rise in population doesn't necessarily mean an increase in crime. Bray Wheeler: Well, and I think to your point, I think it's an important point to reiterate that you made in terms of it's a good reality check to what we're seeing, how we're feeling, how we're perceiving things, to be able to go back and just gut-check ourselves against some of the data to go, "Okay, let's put this in the appropriate context." It's a focus in on the areas that we are seeing increases in, but also understanding in totality what's going on to make sure that we're not making big assumptions, we're able to explain and weigh decisions in terms of security strategy or other operational decisions to leadership who may read this in the paper going, "What are you talking about? Crime's down. Why are we investing in that?" Well, here's why, and understand that this is the context, so yes, you are correct. It's down nationwide; however, in Washington, D.C.- Bryan Strawser: It's up. Bray Wheeler: ... it's up, and we need to account for that, and we're seeing this impact here. Bryan Strawser: We're experiencing this locally right now here in the Twin Cities. Minneapolis has had an increase in violent crime, particularly homicide involving firearms this year, but St. Paul is, on the other side of the Mississippi River here, is having a huge spike. They've got some gang conflict that's driving the bulk of this, and it's not been a good summer for the city of St. Paul in this area. But this kind of data helps kind of see that in context and put it in reality over time. There was a spike in '16, '17, and '18. We saw some uptick in violent crime, and now we're seeing it come back down. Bray Wheeler: Yeah, I think it was 2015, 2016. There was definitely a spike, and so that's part of it too is to understand that we'll go through these ebbs and flows of a lot of increase, and then some decrease to figure out where at in the norm. Although it's a 6% decrease, it's obviously an improvement, but compared, it's still dropping those increases from 2015, 2016 potentially. It's all good context. It's good information. It's kind of vetted. Like I said, they take months and months to scrub this and organize it and make sure that they feel confident with the data that they have before releasing it and making it official because a lot of law enforcement and other agencies use this to account for budgetary things and their strategies as well, so they want to make sure it's accurate. Bryan Strawser: You can find the... we'll put the link to the FBI data in the show notes, but you can also find it and other contexts that fbi.gov. They've got some court reporting tools you can use to slice and dice and extract this data of the way that you want. That's it for this edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast. We'll be back with a new episode next week.

In this week's edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast, Bryghtpath Principal & CEO Bryan Strawser, along with Consultant Bray Wheeler, talk about some of the common mistakes we've seen during a critical moment during our consulting and professional careers. Related Episodes & Blog Posts Episode #4:  The Crisis Team Episode #17:  Lessons Learned from the 2017 Hurricane Season Episode #23:  Crisis Management is not a Pickup Game Blog Post:  Looking back at the 2017 Hurricane Season Blog Post:  Making Decisions in the Midst of a Crisis //static.leadpages.net/leadboxes/current/embed.js Episode Transcript Bryan Strawser: Hello, and welcome to the Managing Uncertainty podcast. This is Bryan Strawser, principal and CEO here at Bryghtpath. Bray Wheeler: This is Bray Wheeler, consultant at Bryghtpath. Bryan Strawser: And today we're going to talk about some common mistakes we've seen in the critical moment in a crisis during our consulting and professional careers and we both been at crisis management for quite some time, almost 30 years for me. Bray Wheeler: Not quite that long for me. Bryan Strawser: I have more gray hair. Bray Wheeler: I'm getting there. I also have more hair. Bryan Strawser: But what we want to talk about is just we've been inside of a lot of companies, and we've been in a lot of situations on our own with a lot of different teams across really around the world. And we want to talk about six or seven common mistakes that we've seen, and a little bit about what leads to those mistakes. And I'm just going to start off with the first one for me, a big one, and that is just the overreacting that happens. Bryan Strawser: The emotional response in a crisis, particularly a crisis that has personal implications for an individual or for a team. Usually where someone's been hurt, or you have this just really the extreme reputational situation, like a data breach. Things are going to have material consequences for your organization or for an individual, and just this emotional response. And this one's particularly near and dear to my heart because I so value emotional intelligence when it comes to folks that work in crisis management. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Bryan Strawser: That individuals are able to work through these situations in the moment. And to some extent, keep your emotions under control while you're managing the crisis, and then you bring that out and experience it in its full when the crisis is over. And it's such an important thing to me. Bryan Strawser: And I think that we also get there not just through folks who have high EQ, high quotients in this area. But I think we also get there by practicing and having exercises. Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bryan Strawser: And having exercises that are realistic to where people understand their roles and responsibilities, and how the team is going to collaborate to make these very difficult decisions. Bray Wheeler: Right. Well, I mean, it gets back to kind of the tried and true methods of fire drills and shelter-in-place drills. Bryan Strawser: And why do we practice these things? Bray Wheeler: You practice those things so that you feel at least somewhat comfortable or knowledgeable, or kind of confident in the next two things you're supposed to be doing. And I think a lot of times when we get into these situations, especially kind of as you were describing, what are the really novel type situations? Situations that are uncommon, we've never experienced before, have high impact, have a high consequence to them. Bray Wheeler: It's easy to get sucked into the, "I just need to react. We just need to do something. I need to do something." And the train kind of just leaves the station without any rhyme or reason other than that sense of, "We got to do something." And it's especially complicated when you have an existing process and you have something in place, and either have leaders or other teams kind of feeling the need to go address it rather than go to the mechanism that you've put in place to really kind of counter that emotional response. You have an emotional process put in place to escalate to, to be able to start working through to gather the right folks, to start putting the pieces in place to manage it in a way that the organization can feel confident about. And those individuals who are having that kind of reaction, or who are highly involved, can feel confident in. Bryan Strawser: And I think it's particularly frustrating I think for teams where you have a relatively mature crisis process in place. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Bryan Strawser: Now you're confronted with a crisis that's maybe a little bit of outside of the box, or it has such material impact on the organization that the executives, instead of valuing the process that you built, skip it and put their own process in place. And now you're outside of all the process safeguards and checklists and muscle memory of roles and responsibility and having the right players at the table and more and more and more. Bray Wheeler: Or putting players who are involved in the established process into the ad hoc process. Bryan Strawser: But the process isn't working. Bray Wheeler: But the process isn't working. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. Bray Wheeler: And so it creates confusion or it creates difficulty. And for them trying to work through it or to understand what their expectation and what their role is, because they've been hopefully trained and have, to your point, a muscle memory to that. And then all of a sudden that's gone, and they have to operate in a completely different way. At least not in a way where they have a frame of reference from. Bryan Strawser: I think this happens too in a slightly different way that's just as frustrating, and we've talked about this on the podcast before, around an active shooter incident that several of us were involved in at a previous employer long before Bryghtpath existed. But we had an industry-leading crisis process, and we were involved in a pretty significant active shooter situation. Turned out to be a false alarm, and we had some leaders show up and then try to inject themselves into the process. But they weren't part of the process. Right? Their organization was actually represented by two other people who were already involved and were already doing the right thing, and understood the process. And these two folks tried to interject themselves, and I had to spend some time getting them out of the process because they weren't part of it. Their organization, and getting them redirected to the right people in their org. Bryan Strawser: So this can happen either way. You may have a situation where executives throw your process out the window, and that's frustrating. Or you might have a situation where people show up and they're like, "Well, I want to be involved in this." And that's fine, you can be, but you have to work through your organization's rep, which are these two folks over here. The ones who have been trained and have participated in crisis management for years, work with them. Bray Wheeler: They have that ... And I think that the piece that often gets lost when people try and interject themselves in is there are norms established within these crisis response teams that your representatives know the culture and know the norms of that group and how it operates. And for someone new to step in to just insert themselves breaks norms, rubs people the wrong way, becomes a distraction to the process. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. The folks that have been involved know how to escalate. They know how to work with the peer group. They know who to talk to, they know how to surface things without wrecking the process. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: We kind of went in some different directions, but the point is that kind of emotional overreaction and not following the defined process here because you've got folks who just don't know the norms. Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bryan Strawser: What's the next one? Bray Wheeler: Lack of transparency in communication. And that kind of gets into the siloing effect of different things, or containment of information that might be important for the broader response team to know the leadership impacted business operations. Really, it just gets down to kind of a communications breakdown, but really it's not being transparent. And that could happen right at the beginning when folks know something's going wrong but they haven't escalated it, or they're only talking about certain pieces of it because of either embarrassments or other components of that. Or it's during, and you're trying to mitigate or split off or be the hero. Or it's at the end, when we're not sharing back what we've learned or what happened, or the nature and the results of what transpired. Bryan Strawser: One area where this really frustrates me that I know we're careful about how when we teach crisis communications or we talk about communicating externally from an organization in a crisis, and that is when the internal team at the company having the crisis finds out what's going on from the media. Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bryan Strawser: Because again, there's not transparency about what's happening, and the company not valuing communicating internally to their employees, to their team before they communicate externally to the community, to clients, to the investment community and other stakeholders. You've got to do both. The messages are a little different, and they very clearly need to do one before the other. It can be 10 minutes before the other. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: But you've got to let the team hear from leaders directly, and not hear from leaders through the local news anchor. That's not a good process to get into. Bray Wheeler: Well, I mean, it comes down to trust and respect. And the way that a crisis is communicated and addressed really dictates to some extent the success of how that organization recovers from that. Because if you have, to your point, the internal team going, "We found out about this from the media, this is all being hidden from us. I can't trust people. They don't trust us. What's going on?" Bray Wheeler: There's conflicting stories. They're not able to go to their family and friends who are asking like, "Hey, what's going on with that?" And being able to say, "You know what? Here's kind of what I can share and what I know, and there's some things I know I can't share." But it just comes down to they're a part of your organization for a reason, and you should be able to trust them in these situations. I don't want to liken it to a family, but it's a little bit of a ... You get into those family crisis, you got to be able to kind of trust that grouping of individuals. Bryan Strawser: So another mistake that we see a lot of is just in the response, particularly in a reputational crisis or negative news story of some type, is when the response becomes a tax on that organization or the individual instead of being about the issue. And I think this is common in today's world when it comes to political communication, where we're going to attack the other party as opposed to just talking about what the issue is. But I also have seen this in reputational conflict, where a company gets attacked over something and instead of dealing with the issue, they attack the individual in the veracity of the claim. And et cetera. And there's certainly a time and place for this, but I see more often than not, this is the response as opposed to, "Let's address the issue at hand." Bray Wheeler: Yep. It comes down to, again, how you portray yourself, how the organization portrays itself, dictates a lot of how people view it and what it is that you stand for and what your values are. That all gets lost if you go on the offensive against an entity rather than that issue. To be able to attack the issue isn't ... There's a time and place for that as part of reputation management. That's a key tool of the tool belt there. But to make it about the entity comes across as personal, and the situation becomes lost on that conversation stream rather than addressing and coming out the other side of that situation stronger than when you went into it. And that's the ultimate goal on some of this stuff, is to be able to do those things, and that gets lost immediately as soon as you go after an individual. Bryan Strawser: What's the next one you got on the list? Bray Wheeler: Escalation breakdown. Common one, and there's a certain level of ... I think it's important to remember with this one, there's a certain level of ambiguity to it. Or what's the word I'm looking for? Discretion that individuals can use and whether or not to escalate. But oftentimes we see ... And it isn't just from the person on the frontline, the security guard at the front, tech and your operations center, manager in a store, manager in a bank or something like that. Not escalating it up and trying to handle it themselves. It also comes down from the top down, that there's not a, "Hey, we have a situation and we're not appropriately putting it back to our original one, back into the process." Bray Wheeler: But that escalation breakdown really is a symptom of having folks not train lack of clarity in how those things should be communicated. A culture that we've kind of shared is over-responding, not overreacting. So making it okay for folks to communicate that stuff out without fear of punishment or being called stupid or something like that, that they made a mistake doing it. Bryan Strawser: Right. Bray Wheeler: That it all becomes a coaching and a teachable moment, rather than punishment and creating that environment. Because the more you know, the more effectively you're able to triage what's going on. And to give that person either the tips to go address it themselves or to say, "Yep, you're right. Here we go, we're going to kick the process in." Bryan Strawser: I took escalation calls for a Fortune 300 organization for six years. Almost six and a half years, and I tried really hard not to kill the messenger. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: Right? I was always cognizant. Bray Wheeler: Thank you. Bryan Strawser: Yeah, I was going to say Bray was one of the people I had to call sometimes. Bray Wheeler: Every once in a while. Bryan Strawser: But I always tried to remind myself that on the other end of the phone is somebody that really could be in their first real job, and they didn't really want to be the one that called me at 3:00 in the morning, but they had to be the one that called me at 3:00 in the morning. And so I always try to be polite in those situations because I know what it felt like when I was in the other end of that, calling my boss at 3:00 AM about a homicide. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: Whatever had gone on in one of my retail locations. But definitely I think there's a message there for leaders, that when this stuff gets escalated to you, you need to deal with it rationally and appropriately, and not sweep it under the rug and not kill the messenger and take that seriously. I think that the message at the other end of this is also you have to escalate the stuff that your company calls for to be escalated. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: You have some clear criteria so folks understand this. I went into a client a couple of years ago as a interim chief security officer and I asked the general counsel, "Hey, what do you want to know about when it happens?" And he literally had two responses. The first one was, "No one's ever asked me that question. I'm not sure." Followed by, "Well, you'll know what to call and tell me." And I'm like, "No, actually I don't." Like, I want you to tell me what's the stuff that happens that's going to be important to you? He goes, "Oh. Well, here are some things." And he goes, "Well, what would you add to that list?" Bryan Strawser: I'm like, "Well, I think you should know about these things." But this raises a question about what do you think other people want to know that you need to know before they ask you about it that has happened, and that led to some fun kind of ... Like what are your peers going to ask about things? Bray Wheeler: For sure. Bryan Strawser: That I need to make sure you know before they ask because they're going to find out through other means. Anyway, you kind of get the idea there. Bray Wheeler: Don't want them to be the last one to know. Bryan Strawser: Yeah, you don't want them to be the last one to know off of there. One of the other mistakes that we see a lot, and I can think of some recent examples of this, is just a lack of organization on action items in a crisis. I think if you're the crisis leader and you're facilitating this crisis team meeting, and I can't remember how many times we've seen this one happen, there's a lot of stuff happening. Okay? And they're facilitating, and they need a note-taker. Somebody needs to take notes for them- Bray Wheeler: You need a scribe. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. Somebody's got to scribe, you can't do that and run the thing at the same time. I know I couldn't, and I take pretty good notes. But you also need to delineate, this is some stuff that we have to do, and who's going to do it? Which org here at the table does this task belong to because it fits in your area? And if it doesn't fit in somebody's area, then decide as a group where it's going to go. That's why you have this cross-functional in a crisis organization, but you've got to track this stuff. Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bryan Strawser: And then you got to stay on top of it. And this is where I think particularly if your crisis organization is set up correctly, you're not doing everything. But the stuff that can get solved is coming to you to deal with. Like here's the obstacle or whatever. There's got to be clear paths to resolve this. I remember a specific example of this in Hurricane Sandy, where FEMA wanted to bring gas and distribute it in retail store parking lots. And I'm like, "I can tell you I don't like this idea, but I can also tell you this is not my decision. I will take it to the person whose decision it is." Bryan Strawser: And then kind of chase down the answer to that question. But that was a problem that the local retail stores weren't going to be able to solve. We had to answer this question for them because it was really a policy question. So you've got to have the mechanisms to escalate those decisions and make those decisions quickly. Bray Wheeler: We've seen organizations take different approaches with this too, where they have online virtual tools that they're tracking these things in real time. We have people who have sheets, paper sheets that they're tracking this information on. The most probably effective one, at least in the moment ... Bray Wheeler: Excuse me. Is a whiteboard, and just using the whiteboard to track as the conversation goes. That scribe is writing down key pieces of information, kind of situational components from the different groups at the table. But then those action items, and listing those out and then being able to recap at the end of that conversation or that call of, "What's next? What off this list are we going to do?" Bryan Strawser: Yeah. And there's always just a lot to keep track of in these situations. So I think that's a good one. Another example of things that we see pretty commonly, mistakes we see pretty commonly, and this one just kills me. Role ambiguity, uncertainty with roles and expectations within the crisis organization. Bryan Strawser: I attribute this sometimes to just poor planning or poor training, or more likely, you haven't really done an exercise. A good exercise, where you work a lot of these details out because you've practiced, and you've had some lessons learned out of that practicing so folks are clear on what this is. If I walk into a real crisis and people aren't sure who's in charge and who's taken notes, and who's running the meetings and who's communicating the results of those meetings, I'm usually looking at a team that hasn't had an exercise. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Bryan Strawser: A real exercise. Bray Wheeler: Safe bet. Bryan Strawser: Safe bet. And that's a really bad place to be, because you exercise in order to build that muscle memory and understanding of how you're going to collaborate so that you can do this in a crisis, and now you're in a crisis and [inaudible 00:20:21], as we say in Minnesota. Bray Wheeler: Well, and it gets to the different kinds of functional pieces of the crisis team too, that if they don't ... Team member accountability, for example. It's an important piece. Sometimes in these situations, if nobody knows who's responsible for it or teams that are responsible for it, it gets left open. Bryan Strawser: And by team member accountability, we're talking about actually accounting for your team in some type of life-threatening injury possible situation. Who's doing that, and what is your process? Is that local team, is it corporate HR? Is it the field HR group? Who does it? And by the way, and if you think this is just an HR responsibility, you're nuts. Bray Wheeler: You are sadly incorrect. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. It's a shared responsibility, but someone's got to be in charge of the darn thing. Team member accountability. Obviously, if you're listening, you're picking up on some sarcasm related to this. But part of that is just simply we see this a lot, this team member accountability as a challenge. Bray Wheeler: So the next item we have on our list, kind of the penultimate one here, but it's really about remembering to not overemphasize the kind of operational and financial impacts of the situation versus the people impacts. A lot of times I think people always know people's impacts are the right thing to address first, and the important thing to care about there doesn't always translate as you get into the conversations about what's going on with the situation. Bray Wheeler: Whatever kind of feels like the hot fire or the passion point of the thing tends to dominate the conversation. In some situations, that is for sure people impact, and that's very clear. For some other situations, that's not always the case. And especially for ones where they may happen in off-hours or it's kind of a known thing like a hurricane or severe weather where people may not be at the facility. They're at home, but there's still impacts to people. And so it's easy to kind of default into the operational or financial piece- Bryan Strawser: Too focused on the business and not enough focus on the team. I really think that the crisis has to start with, "Is the team okay?" Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bryan Strawser: "What is the impact on the team, and what do we need to do to help them?" And then you can get to the other implications of this. Really just like it does in the public sector, emergency management starts with lifesaving rescue operations. Here, we start by thinking about life safety, and then what's the impact on the team and what do we need to do to help them through this. I think a lot of companies, and I think back to Hurricane Harvey and Maria and Irma where fortunately none of our clients had any loss of life or anything like that. But a lot of companies, they knew their team was impacted, right? But their questions were about when can I reopen the office, when can I reopen the store, when can I get the campus reopened? Bryan Strawser: We were working with a university that was impacted at a time, and I kept steering them back to, "Those are important questions, but you can't do any of that if you don't take care of the team." And the team has evacuated and they have an impact. They've lost homes, they've had an impact to their homes, they've lost pets. In one case, we got to talk about how to deal with that first, and then we'll get to the how do we get these things reopened. Because honestly, your first big impact to address is this stuff with the team. We saw companies at the time that didn't have disaster pay in mind for these situations. It was one of the questions I asked before we started some of their crisis calls was, "Are you going to continue to pay the employees who were out of work?" Bryan Strawser: Because it sounds like we're not going to get into some of these buildings for a couple of weeks because they're flooded. Are we going to pay these folks? "Well, we have an interruption policy, but that only works for three days." Okay, well, let's work on solving that issue. Do you want to do this, and then how are you going to do it? Because honestly, we need to solve that before we get to these other problems. Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bryan Strawser: And companies just don't ... I don't think they're naturally wired to think that way. Bray Wheeler: No. You want to get the storefront open as soon as possible. You know, for lack of a better analogy, you can't really get it open if you don't have anybody working in there, or shopping there or interacting with it like they're supposed to. Because a lot of times, people impact it either from a customer base or your client base or partner base too, that, "Yeah. Great. You're up and running, but nobody else is." Bryan Strawser: Right. Nobody else has set up. You haven't set up your part of the system to get everybody back online, back on their feet, back able to return to as much of normalcy as they can get to. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: So our last area, our last mistake that we see, and this was kind of funny because we had just asked my wife who works here at Bryghtpath about what's the big mistake that she's seen companies do. She's been at this her whole life, longer than I have. And she brought up as she put it, "Not having enough coffee available for the team." Well, what she was really getting at was just not taking care of the team. And by the team here, we're talking about the crisis team, the folks that are dealing with work, leading your company through this situation. And I think we've said on multiple podcasts that one of the first things that we always did when activating is to order food. Right? So coffee, coffee maker, pizza, Bray Wheeler: Candy and the candy- Bryan Strawser: Have some healthier options available, of course. But, have food available for the team. The team's going to work a lot. They're going to have some odd hours. They're going to want water and caffeine of choice. I know I had somebody that only drank Diet Mountain Dew on the team, and so we always had that in there. I'm a coffee drinker, I will drink coffee any hour of the day in a crisis. So those are the kinds of things that ... Bryan Strawser: But also I think is just being aware, and we've talked about this, too. Being aware of the mental health of your team, and particularly when you're in these ... like Hurricane Harvey, Irma, Maria, that was like 35-40 days of a lot of nonstop action for a lot of folks. And we needed to have situations where we were rotating people in and out. Like, "Hey, you know what? You're going to take the next two days off, and you're not going to read your email and you're not going to answer the phone, and you're not going to participate in the calls. You're going to hand those over to me." I remember having this discussion with one of our folks and they were like, "No, I can't. We're in the middle of a hurricane." And I'm like, "Yes. And you're burnt out." Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bryan Strawser: Right? You're headed there and you need to go home. You got little kids, you got a wife. Go be a dad and be a husband, and come back on Monday because it'll still be here. Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bryan Strawser: It's not going anywhere. I'll work this weekend. Bray Wheeler: This one in particularly, this one is one where not for ... Well, I shouldn't make the generalization, but typically I would say organizations don't really want to take advantage of their folks that are responding to these things. But these folks often get taken for granted, because the situation is so focused on the incident itself that those responders, the people who are working the issue are often ... You know, that's what they do. So they're in it. They're not necessarily going to raise their hand and bow out. They're going to keep working and keep working and go home, sleep, come back and work and work and work. Rather than take that disconnect, bump up their effectiveness. Bray Wheeler: There's only so long you can operate in one of these situations before you just are burnt out, or you're on overload. And yes, oftentimes people want to keep working, but to your point earlier, you lose your effectiveness by doing that. You lose the rhythms, the procedures, the thought process, the creative thinking, the personal interactions with people. That all suffer, and it doesn't help the situation the way that these people desperately want it to by being dedicated to what they're doing. Bryan Strawser: You lose your ability for the kind of cognitive thought that I think is required to lead in these situations, particularly where you are the leader. And a lot is incumbent upon you to see the strategic picture, the full understanding of the situation and not just the tactical understanding of the situation. And I don't think you can do that when you're fully exhausted. Bray Wheeler: No. Bryan Strawser: Mentally and physically, you need rest in order to do that. And the rest is different for different people. I require less sleep than most, but I'm even finding that difficult as I get older. But those are the kinds of things that I think when we talk about taking care of the team is watching for these things. And if you want to learn more about that, I think we'll put it in the show notes. But you can look at our podcast about the Harvard National Preparedness Leadership Program, and the ideas of metal leadership and about thinking critically in a crisis I think are very applicable here. Because we are trying to keep you out of the basement, as they like to say. Kind of falling prey to that fight or flight syndrome. Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bryan Strawser: But your long term multi-day crisis situations, it's just critical to make sure the team is taken care of and that folks are getting breaks, and that gets you away from a situation. Bray Wheeler: And that you're giving them permission- Bryan Strawser: To do so. Bray Wheeler: Because a lot of times they go home, go to sleep. It sounds like go home, go to sleep, come back. Instead of go home, go to sleep, don't turn on the news. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. Bray Wheeler: Don't show up here again until Monday. You're giving them that order to stay away, find something else to do for 24 to 48 hours. Bryan Strawser: And as a leader, you need to model that behavior. Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bryan Strawser: Right? You need to be taking your own breaks, doing your own kind of thing. And when you have the right processes and you have the right people, this is easy to do. But also when you have the right people, they're highly motivated to make a difference, and you have to create that environment where, to you say, it's to give permission. You got to create that environment where they can go and do these things. That's it for this edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast. I hope you enjoyed our recitation of some of the bigger mistakes we see in the critical moment during a crisis that we've learned throughout our careers. We'll be back later this week with another episode of our BryghtCast edition of the podcast. Thanks for listening.

In this episode of our BryghtCast edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast for the week of October 7th, 2019,  Bryghtpath Principal & CEO Bryan Strawser and Consultant Bray Wheeler take a look at current risks and upcoming events: BBC News:  Brexit: Deal essentially impossible, No 10 source says after PM-Merkel call BBC News:  Turkey boosts troops on Syrian border after operation warning BBC News:  NBA boss Adam Silver defends freedom of speech amid China row Washington Post: Republicans deliver rare rebuke of Trump, slamming his Syria withdrawal decision //static.leadpages.net/leadboxes/current/embed.js Episode Transcript Bryan Strawser: Hello. Welcome to the Managing Uncertainty Podcast. This is our BryghtCast edition for the week of October 7th, 2019. I'm Bryan Strawser, Principal and CEO here at Bryghtpath. Bray Wheeler: This is Bray Wheeler. I'm a consultant here at Bryghtpath. Bryan Strawser: As everyone knows during this edition we take a look at some hot topics and things that are going on or that we think are going to happen around the world and talk about their impact on the business and nonprofit community. I think we're going to start today with some discussion about the European Union and the United Kingdom. Bray? Bray Wheeler: Everybody's favorite topic, Brexit. The reason we're mentioning this week and to kind of be brief, but some developments that have happened here at the beginning of this week the United Kingdom is kind of active in discussions with the EU and some of those partners to try and negotiate their way out of Brexit. They're hoping that the EU will give some kind of latitude or make some concessions in the debate, and the EU is holding pretty firm. Bray Wheeler: The notable event that happened this week was a call between German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and prime minister Boris Johnson of the UK. They had a pretty frank discussion by all accounts. Boris was trying to lay out his plans. Chancellor Merkel was having- Bryan Strawser: None of it. Bray Wheeler: ... none of it. They really didn't end up with any kind of an agreement between the two of them. To kind of pile onto that the European Council President, Donald Tusk, also today, we're recording this on Tuesday, mentioned... had some pretty stark words for Mr. Johnson over what the UK is planning to do. His quote in I believe his tweet was, "What's at stake isn't winning some stupid blame game, at stake is the future of Europe and the UK as well as the security and interests of our people." You don't want a deal. You don't want an extension. You don't want to revoke. Bryan Strawser: They're just going to leave. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Bryan Strawser: Right? Bray Wheeler: Essentially my impression is Boris is putting on a show. Prime Minister Johnson is putting on a show with no real intent to reach a deal. The U just isn't going to play the game, and they're going to let kind of UK internal politics play themselves out, and they're going to leave without a deal. Bryan Strawser: There are three weeks to go, right? Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bryan Strawser: I think at this point this is what the prime minister wants. I think he wants to leave without a deal. The deal was they're going to leave. That's the deal. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: I think it was over the weekend he essentially told the press... I don't think this was in parliament. I think he told the press discussion that he was basically daring the queen to remove him, that he wasn't going to resign. He wasn't going to give up the fight. If the queen wanted to, she could just remove him, which that hasn't happened in over 200 years I believe. I don't see that happening- Bray Wheeler: No. Bryan Strawser: ... in their current constitutional structure. Bray Wheeler: Not based on the nature of this topic. I think if this was some kind of extreme personal kind of moral-ethical dilemma, he's committed serious crimes or something like that, she may get involved, but the queen's been pretty hands-off and pretty kind of ceremonious with her role in a lot of this stuff and kind of letting the politics play politics. Bryan Strawser: It's going to leave a lot of things unsettled on the table around borders and immigration and trade and travel and a lot of stuff. Even in my own personal case, I'm a grad student at a school in London, distance learning student, but I do have to go over there for some things in the coming years. When we had our call a few weeks ago for new students with their staff about visas and immigration and stuff, almost every question about short-term study visas, which as a US citizen I can just show up with some documentation and be given that on the spot as long as I'm leaving within six months. Bryan Strawser: But for students coming from other countries that are in my program that's not true. They have to have a visa before they can travel. The answer to almost every question was we don't know, and we probably won't know until after this happens. So it's very unsettling. And that's just students. That's not even trade. Bray Wheeler: Didn't you mention that they were even saying it for you too that you asked- Bryan Strawser: Well, yeah, I did. Bray Wheeler: You could've asked the question as a US citizen, and they were like, "Yeah, we don't know either." Bryan Strawser: Yeah, I did. I don't think they anticipated anything is going to be any different. We have our own... The United States and the UK have their own immigration agreement about visas and visa-free travel as the United States does with the EU and individually with EU countries. But, yes, it's kind of... I will need to go there I think in January for some things. I think that the current state is true. I can just show up with the documentation that's required. But, yeah, I'll have to figure all this out. None of us are going to know anything until November. Bray Wheeler: Yep. I mean, that's really why we're mentioning it today is just kind of conversation, kind of formal... Some of these more formal talks between the UK and Europe are starting to happen, and they're not going well. By all accounts as an organization, really start kind of thinking through what your plans are. Travel doesn't sound like there's going to be any disruption kind of before then, but you'll need to be prepared for potentially some really significant changes or there may not be any changes. Bray Wheeler: Over the next three weeks it's going to be a topic to definitely watch, and I'm sure we're going to talk more about it. Bryan Strawser: Undoubtedly. Bray Wheeler: Moving on to our next topic it's really the withdrawal of US troops from Syria. This one will be pretty quick because there's not much kind of unfurled with this yet. Really why we're mentioning this is twofold. The US is pulling out their troops and essentially kind of told Turkey to handle the situation. That's caused some real kind of, to use a big word, consternation with the Syrian Kurds who have been long-time US allies in this area of the world. We're kind of leaving them on their own, and they don't get along with Turkey. Bray Wheeler: Turkey historically has not treated some of its minority populations all that well. So there's real concern kind of both within the US, in Europe, with the Kurdish population in the Middle East around what this withdrawal will mean for them. There's also kind of insinuations from the Kurds that says, "Hey, you know all the help that we've given you with ISIS and some of these terror organizations in the region? Yeah, we might be done because we're going to have to go handle our business and protect ourselves." Bray Wheeler: Kind of looking at this in a longer-term potential of this situation, this withdrawal really kind of invokes a lot of different things. Turkey is probably prime for some situations that aren't going to go over well, which if you have businesses or operations in Turkey that's definitely a real thing in terms of terrorist threats, operational disruptions, different internal politics that will happen within Turkey around this situation, but also the terror threat kind of at large globally could be reopening wide up especially if the Kurds aren't able to continue to put the pressure that they've been able to put on ISIS and some of those other fractions. Bray Wheeler: So not a whole lot, but there are definitely some significant repercussions. This is kind of agnostic of political party in the US right now in terms of our withdrawal kind of from the Syria conflict. Republicans are upset. Democrats are upset. Bryan Strawser: I mean the feedback to the President yesterday when this was announced, which was announced late in the evening the night before, I mean the feedback has been universally negative. Now, I have been entertained by I would say some Trump activists' comments about unnecessary endless war and some of that kind of stuff. I expected that. A lot of the folks, this is one of the reasons that they backed the president in the 2016 elections is he said he was going to get us out of these foreign entanglements and some of this. Bryan Strawser: At the same time, I feel like the country owes a debt of honor to the Kurds for the role that they played in combating ISIS and others. They took terrific casualties, a horrendous number of casualties in doing so. This is I think a really bad spot for the country to be in. To your point, I think the broader security issue is what does this raise in terms of terrorism and the impact on that. Does this give ISIS a potential new stronghold to reinvigorate themselves? I guess we'll find out. Bray Wheeler: There are also advantages to Russia, to Iran to other players. It feeds into the broader kind of... It's one more kind of swirl within the chaos that's going on in the Middle East right now with all the different topics. Not that it's ever clean cut region to discuss, but it's definitely a step that gives some advantages to some other players that are causing disruptions on other issues and other things. Bray Wheeler: Moving right along to another one of our favorite topics, Hong Kong, so a couple of developments. We're going to tie into kind of more broad China and kind of corporate aspects of that, but we'll just start out with Hong Kong right now. Kind of some of the developments that have come out of there, Carrie Lam, their chief executive has essentially kind of indicated that if this situation doesn't get under control soon, China will probably have to intercede in what's going on there. China has for the most part been formally out of kind of security control in there, but this is the first time that Carrie Lam has ever kind of insinuated that China might get directly involved in security operations. Bray Wheeler: The statement kind of comes on the heels of her using her executive power to ban mass and some other security things. Over the weekend they had shut down the subways, they had shut down shops, shopping malls, and things like that, so there was kind of a lot of executive control exercises over the last few days, some of which again kind of like the violence that we saw last time with direct kind of ballistic action with security forces. Now they're saying China might be involved. That's another kind of step in the escalation of what's going on there that that's the first insinuation that, hey, if you guys don't stop, China might actually take control. Bray Wheeler: Which kind of ties into the other component of Hong Kong that kind of broke over the weekend that's probably much more interesting now to corporations and their interactions with China was the Houston Rockets national basketball association team- Bryan Strawser: So their GM, right? The general manager. Bray Wheeler: The GM put out a tweet that essentially said stand by. Let's see, I have the quote here somewhere. Fight for freedom. Stand with Hong Kong. That did not go over well in China. Bryan Strawser: Yes. Bray Wheeler: China is a huge market for the NBA. China has since said, "Hey, we're not going to show any preseason games. We're going to cancel some other stuff. We're kind of reevaluating our whole partnership with you." The GM kind of summarily deleted his tweets didn't really say too much more. Commissioner Adam Silver came out and said, "Hey, we can't value dollars over our kind of moral and ethics around some of this stuff, but we're still not going to talk about Hong Kong anymore." Bray Wheeler: So kind of in the same breath as I've directed everybody not to talk about Hong Kong to bring it up as a subject, but at the same time we stand for something that's counter to that kind of narrative. There's kind of this contrast there, kind of an addition to that Blizzard the video game interactive company- Bryan Strawser: Manufacturer of World of Warcraft. Bray Wheeler: Manufacturer of World of Warcraft. Bryan Strawser: A division of Activision. Bray Wheeler: Also removed a player from a tournament that was part of what they were sponsoring or one of their tournaments. They removed him for comments that he made in support of Hong Kong. So there's a lot of companies facing a lot of different criticism from China right now that they are kind of actively saying, yeah, we're choosing our business over democracy. That's the message that's playing out. That's not necessarily our stance on it. Bryan Strawser: Right. Bray Wheeler: But that's the conversation that's coming out that these companies are facing reputational kind of crunches against them for these stances or for people within their organization making pro-Hong Kong stances. Bryan Strawser: I recall that we talked about this a few weeks ago on a previous edition of the podcast where we were talking about Marriott Hotels and was it the Gap? Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bryan Strawser: Someone else, another fashion company, had kind of stepped in it because they had T-shirts, and they listed Macau and Hong Kong and Taiwan as separate entities. Marriott's issue is that in their country dropdown they didn't put- Bray Wheeler: China behind it? Bryan Strawser: China as the ... You'd go to China and you'd see the various Chinese cities, and they didn't have Macau and Hong Kong and Taiwan listed on there. They had them listed as separate sovereign countries or sovereign cities like Singapore. This is interesting because this is China flexing its economic muscle. I mean, the NBA thing got the NBA's attention really quickly because China has a deal... The NBA has a contract with the state-run media in China that opens up the market of about 500 million people to watch the NBA and professional basketball being one of the top sports for TV watching in China. Bryan Strawser: The NBA is experimenting with global expansion. They're playing games in India. This season they played a game... Did they play a game in China? I think they did. Bray Wheeler: Yep. Bryan Strawser: I think they were looking at some other countries. Bray Wheeler: Mexico. Bryan Strawser: In Mexico. Baseball has done London and Mexico and Japan. I think we're going to continue to see this. Eventually, I would expect we may have some true global leagues here. I mean the NBA is already running leagues in other parts of the country, but I expect that we might see true globalization of some of the professional sports leagues, which would be cool. But China is going to have their own take on this that is going to make this very difficult. This was purely China flexing economic power, enforcing the NBA to make a change, and then the NBA they whiplashed. I'm surprised they didn't get hurt in how radically they got yanked in two different directions because first, they followed China's wish, and then they reversed, mostly reversed themselves, because they got so much pressure from the US market from their current largest market. Bryan Strawser: They're in a weird spot. From a pure business perspective, leave the politics, they're in a very difficult situation because their future largest market ever is on the line with this. But they're alienating. They could also alienate their current largest market. What a difficult place to be in let alone of the politics of what's the right thing to do here. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: As I think many people reminded them, they are our company based in the United States who started in the United States. Bray Wheeler: Today the New York Times had an article for companies in China political hazards are getting harder to see. The first line I think is very, very apropos for kind of what you just described to and you probably should've led with it, but the quote is, "For international companies looking to do business in China, the rules were once simple. Don't talk about the three T's, Tibet, Taiwan, and Tiananmen Square crackdown." Bryan Strawser: Ouch. Bray Wheeler: "No longer fast-changing geopolitical tensions, growing nationalisms, and rise of social media in China have made it increasingly difficult for multinationals to navigate commerce in the communist country." Bryan Strawser: Yowza. Bray Wheeler: That's pretty much what we've seen kind of play out especially with Hong Kong on the heels of trade wars and other things like that. China means a little bit of business right now. Bryan Strawser: It's a huge economy to participate in. I don't know if we have advice here on how to make the right decision. Certainly, organizations should be thinking about this. If you work in China, you operate in China, you desire to operate in China, know that strings come with the deal. You'll have to find a way to balance the competing interests here around that. We always argue that you should do the right thing whatever the right thing is. I think in this case when it comes to democracy on the line, the answer is pretty clear, but you got to make your own decisions. Bray Wheeler: Right. Bryan Strawser: That's it for this edition of The Managing Uncertainty Podcast. We'll be back next week on Monday with a new edition of the podcast. Hope to hear from you then. Thanks

Continuing our three-part series on Communication - Episode #36 of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast focuses on the new product launch -- what do you do when you're ready to launch your new initiative, system, project, or product inside of a company? In this episode of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast, Bryghtpath Principal & CEO Bryan Strawser and Senior Consultant Jennifer Otremba discuss launching new initiatives and the importance of communications planning. Topics discussed include communications planning, creative collateral, building a communications plan, and related topics. Episode Transcript Jen Otremba: Communication.   Bryan Strawser: I like to communicate.   Jen Otremba: I do too. I think it's important. This is actually part three in a three-part series of communication discussions, if you will, that we've started. We started talking a little bit about kind of an overview of communication with regards to crisis and things like that. Then we went into some of the challenges, holding statements, and things like that. Now we want to talk about the launch. At some point in time, you're going to want to launch some kind of new product or a new team.   Bryan Strawser: A new application.   Jen Otremba: A new application or something along those lines. You're going to need to know how to kind of launch that, how to get that out there to people.   Bryan Strawser: We talked in part one about the fact that we've heard from many leaders in security crisis management business continuity that they think their team are doing all of these really cool things, but nobody knows about them. The launch is really an opportunity to make sure that whatever the big splash is that you're going to make, that people are going to see it. You need this one chance to kind of message this thing the way that you really want it to be. This is your opportunity to do that, and to really think about in advance of that launch what are the different ways that you can that message out?   Jen Otremba: Very much like anything else. How do you want that to be perceived? How do you want to get it out? How do you want people to know about it? That type of thing. Without any [inaudible 00:01:48] doing that, like you said, people don't know that you have these great things going on unless you're properly communicating them. In this podcast episode I guess we want to talk a little bit about planning that launch and then socializing it, and then the launch itself.   Bryan Strawser: I think first you have to start with realizing that you have a launch. I think that often leaders look at all the different things their team is doing and you see this new initiative coming in and you're like, "It's not going to be really be that big of a deal, so why pull up a big campaign about it?" But then you also have things that are so huge that it becomes obvious that you want to communicate that.   I think realizing that really any change that you're driving can be a launch to a certain extent, and how do you really take advantage of that? But I think it really starts with understanding you've got something new that you're bringing into the environment. The new strategy, the new team, the new command center or whatever. Or something boring, new access control software. Yeah.   Jen Otremba: No matter what, in all of those cases it's going to affect people, right?   Bryan Strawser: That's right.   Jen Otremba: Whether it's affecting your internal team or your external team. It's going to have an effect somehow on people, and usually we're creatures of habit and we don't like change. This can soften that messaging a little bit.   Bryan Strawser: Once you've decided that you understand that you're going to have a launch, I think what we really want you to do before you do anything else is sit down.   Jen Otremba: Like we're doing now.   Bryan Strawser: Like we're doing right now and plan. Before you send a single message, plan. A blank piece of paper. Think like we talked about in the first episode of this series, it's an editorial calendar, but you're outlining what it is that you want to message, and what are the different vehicles available to you in order to drive that message. I think we've talked before that there are some commonly used things. There are digital content.   You might have display screens or a corporate intranet where you can post things. There's posters, there's articles, newsletters, maybe you have internal blogs. Maybe there's email newsletters and announcements that you can take advantage of. I think I mentioned posters. You can think about posters in a different way. You can do stickers on columns, you can do Badge Buddies that go on an access control badge, and then you can start thinking about Swag.   Jen Otremba: Yap. People love swag.   Bryan Strawser: If it's a big campaign Swag can just be a pretty awesome source.   Jen Otremba: People love that. I think also bringing in speakers that are experts in certain areas can definitely help with a launch or get that communication across. It gets people excited kind of like the Swag. We've seen everything from very minor things to a full blown concert to launch or announce something which can be kind of neat too, but it doesn't always have to be that extensive.   Bryan Strawser: I think an important part of just thinking about this in the planning phase is you want to start this far enough out where you've got some time to kind of build, you want to build some buzz about what's going on. I think Swag is a good way to do that. But thinking about what's the right tagline or logo, or kind of creative element that helps you push this forward can become an important part of kind building up to that big moment if it's the kind of campaign that really needs that kind of a build.   Jen Otremba: I like the idea of going through and kind of thinking through all of the absolute possible things you can do whether they're realistic or not. And then once you have a budget or some kind of other restrictions, time restrictions and things like that, then you can pick through that list of things that you think would be great and fit it in into those other restrictions. First, I usually make the massive, "Here's all of the possibilities," and then I fit it into whatever that restraint may be.   Bryan Strawser: I think another avenue to consider, I think we talked about this in episode one. You might have an internal Twitter or Slack, or some variation of that. Yammer is a commonly used internal chat capability. But, there might be something out there that should also be a part of your campaign. That kind of internal social media is a good way to build buzz, because you can use some of the more guerilla marketing tactics that you see happen in your life. Or you can have different people that are advocates for your project throughout the organization, or advocates for your launch that's coming that can use hashtags and kind of build drops of messaging. It all looks kind of organic, but in reality you've planned elements of this out.   Jen Otremba: And it can be very effective too. It gets a lot of people involved.   Bryan Strawser: So, leading up to your launch you start to build that buzz, and you start to have some of these kind of initial communication elements that are going out. You brought up some events. Concerts. No, that's kind of a big splash, but-   Jen Otremba: It is. I mean, that's obviously extreme.   Bryan Strawser: You can come up with some events. Maybe you do an open house around the project, or you do a Q&A. Some of this comes down to what is the project that you're really launching. It's interesting sometimes to have, "Hey, you're launching this new application, this new product within your company," than, "Gosh, everybody else wants to know how this thing got built and what were the elements of it and what did you learn?" Have that launch and learn. Do the brown-bag lunch, whatever the right term is that your company-   Jen Otremba: Teach-outs.   Bryan Strawser: Your teach-outs. Teach-outs were a thing.   Jen Otremba: I think also it's a good time to take partnerships. We've talked about that a lot is to partner with other areas of the company. That may be everything from you may need a communications folks to take a look at your content, to approve your content, depending on your organization and what that looks like. But also you may want council to look at it. There may be some other partnerships you might want to take into consideration as you're putting together your content.   Bryan Strawser: If what you're launching is some type of center or facility, there's really obvious things you can do around having a grand opening event, doing an open house, inviting people for tours. You can do a cookout.   Jen Otremba: People love food.   Bryan Strawser: I was involved in opening an operation center in India. That was one of the projects in my responsibility when I was working for a company. The grand opening was a big deal, not just because culturally. It was very important to the team in India that this be perceived as a big deal, because we were entrusting them with this capability that they hadn't had. But the project was championed by that. The president for that entity, this was personally important to him, and this whole idea of dedication and the ceremony and a ribbon cutting is just very important. And so playing that grand opening event and ribbon cutting in the hallway, and the unveiling of a plaque that was on the wall about the dedication. Culturally, those were huge deals in India that were very important to the team and to the leaders there, and were a really important part of our planning.   Jen Otremba: An important part of the discussion too is understanding what the culture is at not just the organization, but maybe it's the internal culture for different organizations. You might have a big company but within that company this team over here works a certain way, and this team over here works a certain way. Just kind of understanding that may play a role in how this is launched as well. An infosec team is going to definitely work differently than a marketing design team.   Bryan Strawser: Totally.   Jen Otremba: Culturally, it's going to be very different I think. I would also say that when you're thinking about these launches and your organization is based in more than one country, don't forget to think about the different methods in which you need to communicate. If you're doing launch events, how do you schedule them so that your teams can participate, or at a minimum they're recorded so that they're able to watch them. It's really easy to have your global teams feel left out over the important moment in your organization's history because they're not there. The same applies for other teams in the same country too, but I think it's particularly difficult for folks that are based elsewhere.   Bryan Strawser: I agree. Or even hourly employees that may not be able to step away to go to some of the events. I want to think about how you can bring them into the excitement as well. That's sort of the content and the vehicles. Socializing events. I think that it's a good idea to have some sort of ahead of time as you're planning through this. Things like teasers of something big is coming can really help to drive that participation when the event is actually launched. Socializing it not just with other employees and people in your organization and leadership, but kind of getting that out there with emails or calendar invites. Even the teaser posters can be helpful.   Jen Otremba: We talked a little bit about the need to socialize some aspects of this. I think socializing the communications plan is pretty difficult, because depending on how your company works, there's pretty a lot of folks that had to be involved in that conversation. If you have a communications team then certainly there should be a part of this [inaudible 00:11:24], or likely to have some great ideas if you didn't think about it in terms of the communications plan overall.   But certainly you also want to involve leaders who are going to want to be involved in some aspect of this, and how can you best leverage them? Whether that's a pull quote that goes into some of your material, a post from them or a blog post from them on your internal kind of social media or websites. And then of course their general buy off in leadership up front, so that they're a part of the process and buy in to what your overall plan is.   Bryan Strawser: Right. Or even having leadership available for the launch itself, so having them introduce it even can often be helpful.   Jen Otremba: Prepare for them to ask you to write their speech for them, but that's the way it works.   Bryan Strawser: That's true. Exactly. They're going to want to know exactly what you want them to say. Usually, they're more than willing to participate, but they need some bullet points. You're going to want to give them something.   Jen Otremba: Correct.   Bryan Strawser: And then we come down to the launch itself. So, we've done all of this work-   Jen Otremba: Now it's execution time.   Bryan Strawser: Now it's execution time. I think one thing to remember for the launch itself is usually things don't go as planned, or there are some aspects of it that don't go as planned. There's the planning for the unplanned I guess which always comes [crosstalk 00:12:48]   Jen Otremba: Prepare for the unexpected.   Bryan Strawser: Or just be prepared so that you can react to things like that. Because you come up with multiple vehicles, so if one vehicle doesn't work it shouldn't be as big of a deal, right? You've all these other means of pushing this information out. I think additionally I would be prepared for massive amounts of questions. Anytime you launch something new it's usually going to create a lot of buzz and a lot of questions as to how it's going to affect me, which is mostly what people care about is the me.   Jen Otremba: I think certainly.   Bryan Strawser: How does this matter to me?   Jen Otremba: I think you're right. It gives you a whole episode just about change management and the big need that we see to communicate better when we're talking about driving change in an organization. Maybe that's part of your launch certainly. If changing something is part of your launch, you're going to want to make sure that the context for that is explained and the differences are clearly explained, and you get down to the brass tacks at what does this really mean for me?   But as you think about that final launch event or communication, really making sure that you're communicating the context as to why and what is happening. Think about this from the perspective of your most junior employee who has the least amount of strategic context of what's going on in most cases, because they're new or not as experienced. But I think really explaining that and making sure that your messaging is clear enough that people from the most senior to the most junior can really understand what you're putting in front of them for your launch.   Bryan Strawser: Especially if it's a big, big change.   Jen Otremba: Especially for a big change. Those are some thoughts we had on how to effectively kind of wrap up your communications plan going into the big launch. We hope that your launches are successful.  

What happens when you find yourself in the middle of a crisis, some of your facilities are impacted, and suddenly you need to relocate several critical teams to an alternate workplace for an indeterminate period of time. If you have planned well, then you're ready to execute your plan. But if you haven't.... In this episode of the Managing Uncertainty podcast, Bryghtpath Principal & CEO Bryan Strawser along with Senior Consultant Jennifer Otremba discuss alternate workplace strategies for business continuity situations. Topics discussed by the experts from Bryghtpath include the business impact analysis (BIA), effective business continuity planning, trends in alternate workplace strategies, and their own practical experience with managing large-scale business continuity situations that required the use of alternate workplace strategies. //static.leadpages.net/leadboxes/current/embed.js Episode Transcript Bryan Strawser: A bad thing has happened. The boom has happened.   Jen Otremba: What do we do now?   Bryan Strawser: We're on the right side of the boom.   Jen Otremba: Yeah.   Bryan Strawser: We're responding. We've activated our crisis process. We've realized that we've got a facility or two that has impact.   Jen Otremba: For whatever reason.   Bryan Strawser: For whatever reason and now we're activating business continuity plans for critical teams that are in those facilities and we run into the problem of alternate workspace.   Jen Otremba: Yeah. We may have planned for this or we may not have planned for this.   Bryan Strawser: We hope that we have a plan for this.   Jen Otremba: I always like it when you discussed your story about what had happened with the flooding where individuals lost their workspace because of flooding. Because oftentimes, we think about this like the tornado blew the building the over, but it's not always like that.   Bryan Strawser: Yeah. We always seem to think of the catastrophic situation, but I think we relayed it previously on the podcast many years ago. An employer of mine at the time, 50 story skyscraper building in Minneapolis where we occupied 40-ish floors of the building, there was a flood inside the building. The flood was caused by a one inch water line that ran into an ice maker that had a filter change on a Friday or a Thursday and by Saturday night it was leaking and by Sunday afternoon had proceeded to flood. I believe it was three and a half floors of the building. Now, we had 600-ish, 800-ish employees that we need to work and couldn't work because there was three to four inches of standing water in their offices and cubicles and common workspace.   Jen Otremba: They couldn't work in that space.   Bryan Strawser: Couldn't work in that space. That's correct. Important distinction. This is where this whole idea of alternate workspace comes up is if they can't work there then where can the work?   Jen Otremba: Right.   Bryan Strawser: How do we solve that problem?   Jen Otremba: Yeah.   Bryan Strawser: We build a second building that just sits empty and when you have disruption, you just move people to your other $250 million skyscraper. That's how this works.   Jen Otremba: I think we've seen this come up in even less drastic situations like that and it's become more and more common to work elsewhere when there is a snowstorm and I can't get work or the transportation that the company has provided for me to get to work is not running because there's a massive snowstorm, things like that. I have to come up with an alternate plan as to where I can work.   Bryan Strawser: I made a joke earlier about the secondary $250 million skyscraper, so that was just to be clear, that was a joke since we just moved on quickly from there.   Jen Otremba: We did. Yes.   Bryan Strawser: This really starts with when we're talking about alternate workspace, what we're really talking about here is if your primary workplace is not usable, where can you go and work? We very rapidly come to another fork in the discussion, which is well, is there anything special about your workspace that really has to be there for you to be able to do your job? I don't mean do your job in comfort and luxury that you might've had in your previous, your normal workspace probably. What do you really need to do your job? I was always in jobs that I could really work from anywhere. What I needed was I need a phone, I need a computer, I need internet connectivity, I need my computer's basic set of apps, Microsoft Office and access to web and Slack and instant messenger and whatever.   I didn't really need anything special to be able to do my job.   Jen Otremba: Right. There certainly are positions that require specific tools, specific locations, specific things in order to do your job there.   Bryan Strawser: Right. If you work in a contact center ...   Jen Otremba: For instance.   Bryan Strawser: ... For any of the contact center disciplines, collection, customer service, outbound sales calls, etc., well there's some pretty specialized stuff going on there. You've got a computer with certain software. You probably have a soft phone or a VoIP phone that connects to the computer and gets information from it. You probably have a dialing system and the calls are recorded. Some of this, some of this you could probably live without. Some of this required by regulation in your [inaudible 00:04:29]. You're going to have to have it in order to continue that operation, but in almost every case, you're not going to be able to do this from home. Although, we are finally starting to see some cloud solutions come out for this sort of thing.   Jen Otremba: Yeah. We're of course not talking about things like doctors and nurses in a hospital setting that clearly need to be there in order to do their job.   Bryan Strawser: Right.   Jen Otremba: We're talking about other positions that can be done elsewhere. Right?   Bryan Strawser: As we start to dig into this, there's certainly as you start to devise an alternate workspace strategy, this really starts off with data. In what's likely your business continuity life cycle, your planning process, you're asking questions about facilities, applications, technology requirements, specific workspace needs, like dolly software exam tables for a doctor.   Jen Otremba: Sure. Even those in some cases can be moved elsewhere for a temporary period of time.   Bryan Strawser: That's right. There's a lot you could do with a wireless laptop and a stethoscope and some basic medical equipment.   Jen Otremba: Sure.   Bryan Strawser: You probably don't want to be doing that out in the middle of a parking lot.   Jen Otremba: Right. You came up with a plan for that, but yes, you're right. You start with the data.   Bryan Strawser: You're capturing a lot of this data.   Jen Otremba: Right. I think this is an interesting point about the story that you told in introducing this is that that BIA data should point towards specific individuals that need a specific workspace. In that case, that was not the case. Many of those individuals were not on the BIA as critical employees in a certain location, that kind of thing, but there were still displaced.   Bryan Strawser: Right. In the example we were talking about, the flooding in the skyscraper, very few of those 800 individuals and the four or five teams they were a part of were really critical, were performing critical roles because through our process in the business impact analysis and understanding criticality, they didn't meet our criteria so they therefore did not have allocated alternate workspace, which was a defined strategy that we had. In fact, they didn't plan at all because they were not considered to be critical processes until the Monday following the ... Until Monday when we had a discussion with our leaders and we were quickly corrected of I don't really care what the BIA says, maybe we filled it out wrong or whatever, but now they're critical so they need a space to work.   Jen Otremba: Yeah.   Bryan Strawser: Okay. Fine.   Jen Otremba: Being prepared for that as well [inaudible 00:06:53].   Bryan Strawser: Right.   Jen Otremba: Or being prepared to have that discussion with your leadership.   Bryan Strawser: Right.   Jen Otremba: On the spot.   Bryan Strawser: As you're thinking about devising alternate workspace strategies, I think we talked about dealing with the data. I think really analyzing this data and being a little challenging about why people need alternate workspace because most companies in today's day and age don't keep a spare building around and probably don't have a whole lot of space to be able to consolidate folks. First, I think you want to start with let's get this list down to what actually needs alternate workspace, who has to a physical place to work. If they can work remotely then have them work remotely, until you get through that first two, three, four, weeks of response and you and your facilities partners come up with the what's the long term answer going to be for how we deal with the loss of this, loss or damage to this facility.   Jen Otremba: Or if those positions aren't immediately critical, they can be put on hold for a period of time, too.   Bryan Strawser: Right.   Jen Otremba: Really coming up with clear data on exactly what that looks like for how many people and what the workspaces may look like and having all of that information to be able to discuss with the people writing the checks. Right? Who's paying the bills here?   Bryan Strawser: Not going to be me.   Jen Otremba: Not going to be me. That's going to be a tough discussion though, I think.   Bryan Strawser: It is. I think this is actually a really difficult ... This is a really difficult thing to work through because if you've not done this before and your company is of any size whatsoever, this can be a pretty expensive proposition. I know as we've worked with clients, we've done a number of things around alternate workspace. We've seen conference rooms wired with additional ethernet jacks and a space for people to work. We've seen common areas furniture removed, tables and chairs and stuff so that folks can work. We've seen cafeterias where it's pre-wired with network and phone power so that you bring it down from the ceiling or you pull up tiles in the floor and there's the connectivity you need to relocate contact centers and critical pieces like that.   There's a lot of ways that you can approach this. We have a client that is literally building a compound where they're able to bring in vendor provided trailers for a temporary workspace and they're wiring it with fiber and power and a bathroom setup and everything that they feel like is necessary in order to provide even in the alternate situation the workspace environment that they seek to have for employees.   Jen Otremba: They have the real estate to do that.   Bryan Strawser: Correct.   Jen Otremba: [inaudible 00:09:36].   Bryan Strawser: Even this is still a ... This is a significant project for them to undertake.   Jen Otremba: Yeah.   Bryan Strawser: In all of these efforts, we've seen success where companies have taken the time to really do us a thorough analysis of let's get down to who really has to have space, let's make a good analysis of what we're going to need to fulfill those issues if these are disrupted and then what are the different options that we can go through in order to get to the best possible answer and then bring those options to your executives or your governance structure or what have you in order to talk through those.   Jen Otremba: Yeah. I think that's really the best way to be prepared for those discussions with your senior leaders is to having all of the data and also having the financial information upfront, so it's going to be very costly.   Bryan Strawser: Right.   Jen Otremba: But, having all of that information and being able to provide the financial considerations around that and also what the financial considerations could potentially look like without that if something were to happen.   Bryan Strawser: Right. It's important to look at other options too, like hotels, hotel conference rooms. If you have people that can work using a laptop and VPN and all they need is wifi, you can do a lot in a 600 person banquet room. I'm not going to pretend it's going to be cozy and that you're all going to be singing kumbaya together, but you got a place to go, there's bathrooms that's dry or it's warm or chilled depending upon what climate you're in.   Jen Otremba: Right.   Bryan Strawser: That might be a better option than having people outside in trailers for two weeks.   Jen Otremba: Yeah. Absolutely. Additionally in this, we can't really have this discussion without going back to the remote work discussion or the working from home discussion or however you want to look at that. Because in some cultures, it's absolutely normal. For instance, at Bryghtpath here, we work elsewhere all the time.   Bryan Strawser: Can't remember the last time I saw Jen in person.   Jen Otremba: I'm here now. Even you, Bryan, we work from all over the place, really.   Bryan Strawser: We do. We work from all around the world.   Jen Otremba: We travel a lot. We work from all over the world and we don't need any special equipment to do that, but we do need our laptop, our internet, our VPN, our access to our applications, and things like that. It's normal in our culture to operate this way.   Bryan Strawser: But, we work with companies who remote work is foreign to them.   Jen Otremba: Right. Introducing or potentially introducing that as a normal way to operate.   Bryan Strawser: Definitely an area of challenge.   Jen Otremba: It can be an area of challenge, yes.   Bryan Strawser: It's definitely worth talking through. If remote work is not part of your organization's culture and you're going to use remote work as an alternate workspace strategy or most of the time you're going to go to remote work before you go to alternate workspace because it is cheaper, it's faster to execute, and in many ways, it works just as well. If that's not part or your culture, that's going to be a real adjustment for folks. If the only way that your team for example knows how to collaborate is to do it in person across the table or by talking across cubicles or offices or whatever and all of a sudden they're all working from their own homes, that collaboration is not going to come easy to them. You're going to have to really work at it to make that work.   Jen Otremba: That said, it would be as part of your strategy, that's something you want to start testing and working on. Whether that be testing your VPN limits or working occasionally on a remote basis to practice that collaborative work from elsewhere.   Bryan Strawser: Right. We do think that remote work is something that's overlooked a lot in alternate workspace strategies. Certainly, something that you want to look at and dig into as you're devising own strategy and certainly not be afraid to challenge the current status quo because we think it's better to take on the remote work challenge and challenge the culture if your company really doesn't support such a thing than to go invest hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars in an alternate workspace strategy that could really be replaced by letting 70, 80 people work from home during a disruption.   Jen Otremba: Yeah. I think another important part to think about through that if you're going to use remote work is understanding that, like you said earlier, it's cheaper and faster. If your employees can't get to an office for whatever reason being a natural disaster or something like that, but they're already at home, it's safer for them to stay at home and continue working.   Bryan Strawser: That's right.   Jen Otremba: There's really some advantages of allowing that remote work culture.   Bryan Strawser: To recap then on the alternate workspace discussion for today, understand the situation, understand the data, particularly from your BIA or business continuity lifecycle. Give it a thorough analysis. Be challenging on departments and teams and their thoughts on alternate workspace and get them down to what they truly need to have in the event of a major disruption. Pull together some options to discuss with your governance committee or your senior executives to work through the problem and then put a solid plan in place and think about the different options, including remote work, as a successful way to manage these kind of situations as opposed to setting up alternate facilities.  

Continuing our three part series on Communication - Episode #34 of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast is focused on what happens after the "BOOM!"... or in other words, we're going to focus on crisis communications. In this episode of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast, Bryghtpath Principal & CEO Bryan Strawser and Senior Consultant Jennifer Otremba talk candidly about crisis communications. Topics discussed include crisis communications planning, holding statements, developing key messages, managing social media, and more! //static.leadpages.net/leadboxes/current/embed.js Episode Transcript Jen Otremba: Hi, we're back. Managing Uncertainty podcast. Today, this is actually part two of the communication series we talked about last week. Today we are going to talk a little bit about crisis communication. What happens in a crisis, and why do you need to communicate, and for how long, and for when and to who, and all of that. Crisis communication. Let's talk about that.   Bryan Strawser: When we're talking about crisis communication, we're really talking about kind of the left and right of the boom. As we've said before, the boom is the bad thing. To the left boom which is before the boom, you're thinking about how do you prepare for the boom. Then the boom happens and everything after that is right of boom. You're reacting. You're responding. And then you're into short and long-term recovery. Communication differs as you kind of move throughout this.   Jen Otremba: I think let's start with the before the boom. The planning process.   Bryan Strawser: Wait, you want to plan?   Jen Otremba: Yes.   Bryan Strawser: Oh my gosh.   Jen Otremba: Yes. You know, I do like to plan.   Bryan Strawser: I think there are planners here. One of the biggest challenges we see when we talk about crisis communications with clients and with others is that I can't count high enough to count the number of times that we've sat down with a corporate communications team or a PR and social media team, and said, "Tell us about your crisis communications planning." And they say, "We don't plan for crises because every situation is different, and you can't build messaging for that.   Jen Otremba: While I'll agree that every situation is different, and you should understand that going in. There's the need to be a little bit nimble. You still need to have a plan. Some kind of templates or something created beforehand, because let me tell you when the boom happens-   Bryan Strawser: There is no time to figure this out.   Jen Otremba: And as you're editing through it, it is so easy to make a mistake during the boom. Having those holding statements can definitely set you up for success when that happens.   Bryan Strawser: What we're talking about here is that we believe you should take the handful situations that you think you [inaudible 00:02:22] highest risk for is a place to start. Just like we encourage folks to build specific plans to deal with those situations, and what we would also encourage you to build communications plans for those particular situations. You can leave large gaping blanks in those plans in the messaging on how you're going to fill in details as you learn them in the event because it is true the events are going to be different.   But, the holding statement for an active shooter that you're going to use on the initial press appearance is not any different today than it's going to be three days from now when you have the event. It's probably going to be word for word exactly the same.   Jen Otremba: Right. Exactly. I think it's important to know that during the boom, you're not going to have all the information right away. That holding statement like you said is not going to change much depending on what day it happens because you're not going to have all the information. It's going to be fairly simple.   Bryan Strawser: Correct. We can talk about what a specific holding statement looks like in a minute, but I think part of what you have to plan for it helps you in the moment of the boom is gosh there's probably 10, 12, 15 things that I need to know about an active shooter's situation. And so what I'm going to do in my planning phase is I'm going to write these questions down, so that when it happens I can open up my plan and go, "Okay, so we have an active shooter. There's 10 things I need to know. Here's what they are."   And those questions might be what is it? What specifically has happened? Who is or was a suspect? Are people hurt? Have people been killed? Are the police on site? Which police agency is it? Do we know who their public information officer is? And you kind of see how the questions would build from there in terms of understanding what it is that we need to do.   Jen Otremba: I think Bryan you can speak to this even when you have an event that happens, you're going to have people calling you looking for information. You need to be prepared to respond if that's to media or whomever. Whatever that looks like. You need to be prepared to either give them a holding statement. Provide them directions as to who to actually call because you're probably not the right person they should be talking to. All of those things are really important to plan through, so that it's not a shock when it happens.   Bryan Strawser: When we're talking about a holding statement what we're talking about is a brief statement that it kind of does a couple of things. It allows them to know that you are indeed aware and responding to the incident. It allows you to get at least a little bit of messaging out as a part of this. It is better than a no comment because no comment always comes across as callous or that you're hiding something. Like in an active shooter situation since this is what we've started talking about. An appropriate holding statement might be, "Right now our focus is on our team." And you should include customers or others that might be impacted based on your business.   But, let's assume that this is a manufacturing plant. "Right now our focus is on our team while law enforcement does our job. We do not have any additional information at this time. We will update you when we do." That's enough for an initial holding statement. Remember that you might be contacted by the press before you even know that this is going on. In which case I will encourage you to look at your internal communications processes, but that's a different story for a different episode.   Jen Otremba: Yes. This other thing to keep in consideration in your planning process also is to whom you're going to communicate to. We just briefly talked about the media, but I think it's important to understand you may need to communicate to your employees, your leadership, your executives, your shareholders, all of the people that we sort of talked about in the last podcast episode. And how that's going to change from different group to different group.   Bryan Strawser: The audience piece is going to be very important here, just as it is when we talk about communication awareness in the last episode. Understanding the different audiences that you will need to communicate with in the middle of a crisis will help you understand how to do it right. For example, you're going to say things to the media and these things will be very important. They will be criticized. They will be examined. But, if you say them to the public through the media before you have said them to your employees, your board, your executives. You're asking for a massive amount of trouble.   Jen Otremba: Yeah. A world of hurt.   Bryan Strawser: A world of hurt. Maybe it's a good way to put it. But, you really have to think through what the sequence is going to look like which again is why we encourage companies to plan doing these things. And have thought through how you're going to approach it even if you don't know what the message is going to be for the particular situation. You've planned through how you're going to do that.   Jen Otremba: Right. We talked about an active shooter because I think that's probably one of the more extreme examples of things that can happen. But, this can be as simple as you have one of your headquarters buildings is flooding and you need to provide some kind of communication to either your employees, your leadership and to the media as to what's going on. It's not necessarily always going to be as extreme as an active shooter situation, but it's very important to have these planned out.   Bryan Strawser: The other challenge to think through in your planning process, and then I think we can talk about the boom, is just how will your communications be vetted and approved before they go out. This is not a situation where you can wait 45 minutes to an hour for somebody to review and vet a message in a fast breaking situation. You need a way to either have pre-approval or to quickly gain approval of the people that need to approve such things in your company based on your processes and culture, so that you can move forward with mitigating the reputation damage to your organization. Speed is of the essence.   Jen Otremba: You do not have time to wait around to be vetted by six different people before it sends, which is why having those previous holding statements can definitely help you in that aspect.   Bryan Strawser: It will buy you some time. A lot of time.   Jen Otremba: Yes. Also, I would recommend having someone edit before you send it out, so that it improves the process. Even though you have a holding statement that's ready to go, it's still a good idea to have at least one other person to look at something before you send it out to masses.   Bryan Strawser: So, now you're in the boom.   Jen Otremba: Before we should talk about the boom. Real quick, let's talk a little bit about the tools though.   Bryan Strawser: Oh, good point.   Jen Otremba: As we go through this we can review those tools as well. As far as tools for communicating. We talked a little bit about getting a phone call from the media, but how are you communicating to your employees? Are you an email culture? Do you have tools such as Everbridge or things like that where you can get-   Bryan Strawser: [inaudible 00:08:52], some type of mass notifications.   Jen Otremba: Having information to be able to send out, or is your plan to bring everyone together, for instance, with leadership or executives maybe having them in a conference call to give them that information. We're not going to give them any information until we bring them together and, we're going to have a call and talk about it. Kind of understanding what tools that you have available to you as you're in the planning process is very important. Now, the bang.   Bryan Strawser: Now, we're at the bang. The boom. The bang.   Jen Otremba: The boom.   Bryan Strawser: The things happened. We're going to stick with the active shooter example I think since we kind of began with that.   Jen Otremba: Sounds good.   Bryan Strawser: But, from a communications standpoint, suddenly you have a number of audiences that you need to communicate to. You have people that might still be executing run, hide, fight or whatever your strategy is. We think of these are your impacted employers. You have your non-impacted employers, which is really everyone else at the organization that isn't involved in this. But trust me no matter how far away they are, and even if they've never met anyone at the location where this is happening, they're going to care. They're going to care. You have to think about them as a distinct audience that requires communication. There is your employee base for at large, which is really kind of everybody.   There are leaders of both impacted and non-impacted locations. There's your senior executives. There's the board if you have a board. And then there's this where we loosely say is this outside group of influencers and people who both support you, but also have a stake in the game. They have skin in the game with you like institutional investors and others. All of those are different audiences that will need to be communicated with. None of which involve just communicating to the public, which you also will need to do. Very complicated.   Jen Otremba: It can be. Yes. Which then we always go back to the planning process, and if you have a plan for this it makes it a lot less complicated. But, understanding the level of detail of who's getting what information, and how you're going to get that information across. You may have a notification tool for instance. We mentioned a few earlier. That may be your plan to get it out to all employees. You may set conference calls to have a greater level of detail that you're going to have to get to certain parties, executives, top leaders. You may have to bring together your crisis team, and have a whole separate level of detail provided to the crisis team.   Bryan Strawser: Correct.   Jen Otremba: You might want to think though those kinds of things in your planning process. But, when it happens, this is all going to happen potentially very, very quickly.   Bryan Strawser: This is going to move in a blink of an eye.   Jen Otremba: It is.   Bryan Strawser: Internal social media channels are also something to consider. If you use Yammer, or the new Facebook at work.   Jen Otremba: Slack   Bryan Strawser: Slack. Maybe your internet has such a thing built in. Maybe you've got the social sites and things like that. Whatever it is that you have, that needs to be one of the channels in which you think about communicating because people will turn to that. And if you're not there, it's not factored in your communication, definitely you're going to have a hubbub of activity there.   Jen Otremba: Which is actually a good point because if your plan is to communicate through your internet, but you have all off this people that are around hiding, fighting, and they're not on the internet. Do you have a back up plan for how you're communicating to people knowing that they may not be on their computers looking at this right now.   Bryan Strawser: In addition to this there's some tactical things to do even before you get into the statement mode, but we recommend in a big situation like an active shooter that you send a senior executive who has the gravitas and authority to speak for the leadership to the scene along with appropriate support. That's probably some [inaudible 00:12:38] folks and perhaps the security expert that can run interference with law enforcement and others that are at the scene. But, there's no substitute for a senior leader or the local senior leader to be able to interact with the media at the right point in time, which might be now that you're going to want to have that kind of communication going on.   Jen Otremba: It's going to be important that you're able to maintain contact with that leader that you're sending out there, so that you can provide them timely updates on what's going on. If your crisis team is able to provide them a timely update via phone, radio, or however that looks like. Just make sure to think through that, so you're not sending them off and then they don't have the updated information.   Bryan Strawser: Right. It's also important that you delegate to someone to co-locate themselves with the PIO from law enforcement since we're sticking with the active shooter discussion here. That can be a communications person. It can be the spokesperson that you've sent there, a senior executive from the company. But, those messages need to be synchronized. If it looks like you're not on the same page as the police, you're going to be in a lot of trouble. You will want to coordinate on messaging prior to talking to the press, so that you're not revealing things that they don't want revealed. And so that you're clear on any hand offs or references that you're going to make during the course of the discussion.   But, here's a decent statement for active shooter. Can we think about this being at the scene. It's still ongoing, and so you can share some information. "We're concerned about our team, and we're doing everything that we can to ensure their safety and well-being. We can confirm that a 911 call was received from our office building, and those on the premises have been instructed to run, hide or fight as per the training that we've provided to them. Law enforcement is currently in the building and we're working closely with them to learn more information and take appropriate action. As this is part of an ongoing criminal investigation, I will have to defer all questions to law enforcement. We will share more information as soon as we can."   You're expressing the company's desires to make sure that you're concerned and you want to know. You're doing everything you can to make sure people are safe. You're confirming some information, so you're giving a story here. What you're doing and sharing is factual. We're not speculating. We're not sharing any names or deaths that might have occurred. Let the police deal with that.   You make it clear that this is an ongoing situation, and that you're not going to answer questions. You're going to defer to the police. And if you can do this with law enforcement standing by your side, and you can make the first statement and then they can move on and kind of carry the story it's even better. It re-focuses the questions on them. You do need to be prepared for Q&A, but you did tell them the questions should be directed to law enforcement. In this particular appearance you can just re-direct them back to that.   Jen Otremba: As you're thinking through the in the moment communication. You have effectively communicated to the media with your holding statement with your leadership, and your crisis teams and your general employee population. Once you're in this situation and you have gotten a little bit more information. You provide updates as you go and now it's done. Law enforcement has done their part, and the situation is done and it's mass chaos, right? Hopefully not. Hopefully because you have prepared for communicating before, during and after. Now, we're looking at what happens after this is all done. What do you do? Who do you talk to?   Bryan Strawser: We're sticking with the active shooter communication. Again, I think your audiences come into play. In my mind your most important audiences are going to be what you say to the public. What you say to impacted teams. What you say to teams that were not impacted. And probably the broader recap communication that you tell executives across the organization. Your senior leaders across the organization. I think the hardest conversation you're going to have is if you've had fatalities and you have to communicate to the team.   Law enforcement will probably handle communication to the family, but maybe not. We just supported a client a few weeks ago that had an industrial accident fatality and the company made the notification in that particular case. These are things that I think you will have to talk about how do you do this in your organization. We would encourage you if you've had impact. If you've had people killed or hurt in this kind of a violent incident. The best way to communicate is to get the team together and have their leader or somebody from their leadership team communicate this. It's an extraordinary difficult conversation. Jen and I have both been there when this has happened, and I've done this more than once. But, it should come from the team. It should come from that team's leader. That's who they trust. That's who they want to hear this from. It should not come from some communication leader.   Jen Otremba: I think the fact it comes at all is extremely important. I think instance like that happen and then now what, nobody has heard any kind of recap and there's nothing more infuriating than not understanding what has happened. What happens where we're at? Who is infected? Who was affected? Not infected.   Bryan Strawser: We'll give you a statement to use in this situation as an example, but again you need to make this fit your company's culture. One example would be, "Today we've experienced a terrible tragedy that we cannot begin to understand yet. We're all grieving deeply for our fellow employee who was a victim of this unthinkable act of violence from this morning. As we all start to process and cope with the experience, I want you to know that we will have grief counselors on site by noon today and through tomorrow for support if needed.   I want to acknowledge that this is going to impact everyone a little differently, and I encourage you to take the time that you need to grieve and heal in your own way. More information will be available from HR later today about how we're going to handle this in the days and weeks ahead. But, for today I welcome you to go home or you can stay here and speak with the grief counselors, or you can sit in the café with your fellow co-workers or go off site as a group if you wish to do that. You will be paid for the entire working day.   I'm grateful every day to have all of you on my team and have the opportunity for us to work together, and today I'm especially thankful that all of you are safe and knowing that we will find a way to get through this together." Again, this needs to be done in the leader's own words, but it's important to provide them with some things they can use as a starting point. Most folks would really struggle I think to write something like this without some idea about what it should look like. But, this is just one example of that.   Jen Otremba: And then I think thinking through what this looks like in the long-term and how we're communicating with people in the long-term. Not just during the after actions sort of review, but also just in general as you're working through what happened and understanding the details. I think it's important to communicate that as well.   Bryan Strawser: Yeah. In the coming days I think those after action discussions will really be important certainly in an active shooter situation. For a second I want to know why this happened. There may not ever be an answer to that, I mean we've done group counseling sessions in the past. We have had law enforcement come in and talk. Police chiefs, the lead investigator. I mean, sometimes folks just need to hear, "But we don't know why this happened, but this is what we do know." At least let them understand what we know and don't.   Sometimes the police are good at explaining that in a way that folks will try and understand. The may have a easier time to understand rather. But, also I think in these situations folks are going to want to know what you're going to do to protect them. It's not a bad idea to have, we talked about this before, but have law enforcement or security present for a while to help folks feel okay. But, the communication of that after action process is going to be important. It's not a bad idea to talk with people who were there, who were witnesses or heard what was going on, and be able to kind of incorporate that into your communications plan.   Jen Otremba: Yeah. As we talk about the after action review process. This process may go on for quite a while, but I think what's really important or at least in our experience, we've seen that it's important that the population of your organization understands that you are reviewing what you did good, bad in this whole situation and what you're going to do about it. Your employees may not be happy with how you managed through it, so, therefore it would be behoove of you to give them the opportunity to understand what you did, why you did it, and what you're doing to make it better in the future.   Bryan Strawser: So to recap kind of that crisis communication part of our series here in part two. Have a plan, draft some statements, leave holes to fill in as you learn the circumstances. Deploy people to the scene where appropriate. Make sure your execs are trained to be able to deal with those situations. Have holding statements available to use, and then craft your statements using your planning templates and your communication vehicles and your interaction with media in order to help get you through this situation. And don't forget to communicate during the recovery about what you've learned and what the company is going to do about it. Best of luck.  

Following a major incident or crisis, it's time to take stock of your plans, processes, and efforts through a thorough after-action process. In this episode, Bryghtpath Principal & CEO Bryan Strawser and Senior Consultant Jen Otremba talk about the need for after-action processes, the immediate "hot wash" discussion after the end of an incident, and then transitioning into a thoughtful after-action approach that will serve to help mature and enhance your crisis management program. //static.leadpages.net/leadboxes/current/embed.js Episode Transcript Bryan Strawser: The boom is over. Jen Otremba:      The event happened. Bryan Strawser: The event happened. Remember, we had this bad thing, whatever it was. We activated our crisis process. We responded, a crisis team came together and interacted and collaborated and schemed and work through a difficult situation. Jen Otremba:      Outside parties came in. Bryan Strawser: Outside parties were involved. Jen Otremba:      Law enforcement maybe was involved. Bryan Strawser: Now it's over and we've started the process of recovery, which can take years. What do we do? Jen Otremba:      Now what happens? Bryan Strawser: Now what happens? How do we learn? How do we know things worked or didn't work? Jen Otremba:      I think the first step in this process would be to have an immediate hot wash. Bryan Strawser: Also, we're talking about after action processes. Jen Otremba:      After action. Bryan Strawser: We start with a hot wash, what the heck is a hot wash? Because I know the first time I heard this, I was like, "What are you talking about? This is a foreign language." Jen Otremba:      Yeah. This is something to be honest I feel like we do fairly well in the military, because we do ... I learned this from a very young age, that after a big incident, after something occurred, you do some kind of an after action. Sometimes it's involved, sometimes it's not as involved, but usually we start with a hot wash. An immediate discussion of what just happened and what went right and what went wrong. Sometimes there's emotions involved in that discussion as well. Bryan Strawser: Because it just happened, and particularly if it was a violent event or it was a traumatic event there's a lot of emotion involved. I think particularly for me, as we've talked before, my emotional and adrenaline dump happened when the disaster was over, when I knew that people were safe. It was the hardest time for me, and I think everybody's going to be different with this but I think most people that do crisis things for a living, that emotional lease comes when the incident's over. So the hot wash was always a difficult time for me, I had to really collect myself and then focus into this discussion that we were going to have. It's dependent on the incident of course. Jen Otremba:      I think we've seen over time that that's the fact for a lot of people, a lot of people go through that. Now their emotions are at an all time high during the hot wash and sometimes fingers get pointed and it's not helpful, but sometimes it's really important. Bryan Strawser: We try to keep that out of ... Jen Otremba:      Try to, yeah. Bryan Strawser: Hot wash is really more of an informal immediate after action discussion about what just happened. Are we clear on the facts of what just happened? You get into the conversation of evaluating the response from your team. It's not about individuals, it's about what worked, what didn't work. Did we do what we were supposed to do? Did we follow our processes? Or were those processes not adequate and we through them aside along the way? Which happens sometimes. It's really that question of, in the hot wash what worked that we just saw? And what didn't work? Jen Otremba:      Yeah, and then in that initial conversation, who should lead that and how long should that last? Bryan Strawser: Right. I think about the ... I think the most difficult hot wash situation that you and I were involved in when we worked together ... Jen Otremba:      In a corporate setting. Bryan Strawser: In a corporate setting, was we had an active shooter incident at a headquarters location. It was literally across the street. We've talked about this since then on a previous episode of the podcast. We did a hot wash with the incident commander from the law enforcement agency that led the response. His staff, several of our leaders and the entire SWAT, two SWAT teams actually, that responded ... Jen Otremba:      Very crowded discussion. Bryan Strawser: It was a very crowded discussion and we were fortunate to have a room that could accommodate everybody. It was a 30-ish minute, 45 minute discussion that in retrospect I think we said probably wasn't really well led because we thought the police were going to drive it and the police actually had no idea how they were going to drive this particular conversation, so we took over as it went on. That said, there were some valuable lessons that we captured from that conversation, but we also realized that in a hot wash you're looking for the immediate info of what worked and didn't, you don't get the reflective, "Hey, I've had some time to think about this and now I think this and I think this and I think this." Jen Otremba:      Hindsight, right. Yeah, or the hindsight of, "Oh, I can see why they were reacting that way, because big picture this is what they were dealing with but we were over here dealing with this and we weren't coming together." Those types of things can come out in a after action, a more organized one, a short period of time after the hot wash but enough time for people to get some rest and to think about what just happened. Bryan Strawser: Think and converse and process what went on. Jen Otremba:      Yes, and come from that high, that sort of fight or flight high that they were just on. Bryan Strawser: We always encourage the hot wash immediately at the end of the response but brief, 30 to 45 minutes. It doesn't need to be strongly led. We prefer to lead these as someone, a leader within your crisis organization or a leader from the organization that your crisis team reports to. Jen Otremba:      If available. Bryan Strawser: If available. Jen Otremba:      The incident lead is probably a good option. Bryan Strawser: Right, but it's kind of a conversation with the team and perhaps other leaders that were involved in that response or recovery, about what worked and what didn't. You need to have a scribe, you need to take those notes. That's kind of the immediate after action, is that hot wash discussion. Jen Otremba:      It's like an immediate brain dump. Bryan Strawser: Right, and then a pause. Jen Otremba:      How long? Bryan Strawser: Three days, five days, a week, 10 days. You have to judge based on what went on and when is the right time to have this discussion. Jen Otremba:      Right, because you might be having people requiring to take some time off in between the discussion. You don't want it to be so long that people are forgetting but it's a good idea if you're involved in a crisis to take some notes throughout that time. That break time between the incident and the after action, the formal after actions, to start taking some notes and jotting down some things so you can remember that during the discussion. Bryan Strawser: One thing that I learned when I went through the NPLI program at Harvard was the value in journaling during an event. We had a requirement to journal daily during the program, but something that I got immense value out of was hearing these guys who have made their life's work talking about the decisions that are made in national scale emergencies, who would go to the command centers of the Deep Water Horizon incident, and sit there with the incident commander and watch a meeting or a conference or a video conference. And then, in the lull that followed to say, "Why did you just make that decision? What drove you to do that versus the other four options that you were given? Why did you decide to pick that person to lead this effort? Why did you say this instead of perhaps these other things that you could have said?" It's the immediacy of that information that you don't remember later, but you remember it in the moment because you've just made it. Jen Otremba:      These formal after actions, let's talk about that for a second. This formal after action, who should lead it? What should we talk about? Who should be involved? Those types of questions seem to always come up. It's a little bit more formal, so there's some time to set a calendar invite to get people to start thinking about what they want to say. I usually start when I'm doing an after action is what went well. I like to start with a positive note, what went well in the situation? Bryan Strawser: What worked? Jen Otremba:      What worked? What are we going to keep for the next time? Then, once we get through that process, usually people are a little bit on a high of all the good things that they did then and sort of [inaudible 00:08:33] into the, "So now what? What can we do better? How can we fix this for next time?" Bryan Strawser: Again, these conversations are not about blame. Jen Otremba:      Not at all. Bryan Strawser: It's about, how do we be better? Jen Otremba:      But I think it's natural to feel maybe a sense of being attacked or something like that, but it's not the intent at all. It shouldn't be used against people either. [crosstalk 00:08:52] Bryan Strawser: No, no, no. Not at all. This is not a performance review or audit. It's, how do we be better at the things that we're trying to accomplish here? Jen Otremba:      As a team. Bryan Strawser: Right. Jen Otremba:      How do we grow from this and how do we fix some of the things? What are the shortcomings that we didn't see before that we now see because we experienced it? How do we fix those? Bryan Strawser: We often encourage after actions to happen in some groups? Like-minded ... Not like-minded, like-roled groups might be the best way to explain it. I always encourage them, we always did them, as the crisis team together, without other leaders or stakeholders or impacted locations. We did just the crisis team because that was a team that had been through many things together and were very candid with each other. Jen Otremba:      Very. Bryan Strawser: Very candid with each other, but that's what you want. We would do an after action meeting with that group. We did one with just our internal team that worked on crisis stuff full time. That was often about our internal processes for supporting a crisis, but it was also about the incident leader asking for feedback in a non-blameful way. Jen Otremba:      Constructive. Bryan Strawser: But, how do I be better at what I just did? Where did I do well? What did I not do well from a leadership standpoint I need to do better? I always thought those were really healthy conversations but they were held in a safe environment. Jen Otremba:      Absolutely. Bryan Strawser: Then we would do a call with the impacted leaders from the locations in that particular case that were involved in this crisis. We were able to glean, how could we better support you? Do you have adequate training for the roles that we expect you to have in a crisis? All of this flows into an after action report but they're separate conversations. In a large scale incident we often did, like the active shooter incident we've referenced before, I think we did some focus group conversations with impacted team members, employees. We met with some leaders who had people in that building based on what they had heard. We did a lot of things a little differently to capture as much feedback as possible, but also to make sure that people felt that their input was included in this very serious situation. Jen Otremba:      That's because we worked for a large scale organization where there was a lot of players. But a small organization, same concept. Maybe would be a few less conversations. You probably wouldn't need to have as many but same thing you're capturing. You have to adjust that for the size of organization that you're running. Bryan Strawser: Right. At the end of this you're writing a report of some type, a brief report we always try to get to. But we encourage and we coach our clients on a simple summary of the incident. What are the facts of what happened? The timeline that went with that? And then, here are the things that worked. Here's what went well. Here's what we saw as opportunities, things that didn't go well. Here's what we can do about it. Here's the actions that we've agreed to take as a part of this after action, and those actions should be specific, actionable to a person or a team. They should have dates associated with when they're expected to be done and a priority, like are they high? Is it medium? Is it low? Jen Otremba:      Yeah, I think there's also value to sharing that information. Bryan Strawser: Yes. Jen Otremba:      Especially in a incident like we're talking about where there were a lot of people involved, not just in the incident but were involved because their friends were over there or maybe they were in one of those rooms and they want to know what the company's going to do about it because they were unhappy about certain things. Getting their input is also valuable, and then to let them know, "Hey, this isn't just going to sleep, we have all of these processes we're improving." Bryan Strawser: Yeah. You bring up a great point about there should be a way to share this information with stakeholders, with impacted locations. There has to be some overall accountability and tracking of the action items. If you have a crisis team, that's probably the place that that should be owned but if you don't, and many of you that listen to our podcast we know don't really have teams, somebody needs to own that follow up process. Jen Otremba:      Yeah, it makes everyone feel better when they know that the place that they're working or going to school or the hospital that they're in, they know that they're working towards better things. I think that's a good thing. I have a question, after you do the working group and all of this, all of this sounds like really good stuff, right? So why isn't there one done sometimes? Why wouldn't you do an after action report? I don't understand why you wouldn't do that. I know there's a lot of times when things don't get done, and for a lot of reasons. For instance, no one maybe wants to initiate the discussion. Bryan Strawser: Right, and it can be a hard discussion to initiate. Jen Otremba:      Super hard. Bryan Strawser: You're questioning how I performed. Jen Otremba:      Yeah. Bryan Strawser: Even though I'm not. Jen Otremba:      No. Bryan Strawser: That's not the attempt, but some people will take it that way. Jen Otremba:      Yeah, and some people will mean it that way but that shouldn't be the case at all. That's hard, to point out your mistakes and other people's mistakes. That's one reason that maybe they don't get done, so you just power through that. You've got to work through that and put your emotions on the table and just say, "Okay, let's put this aside and let's have this discussion." An other reason I know that maybe this doesn't get done is there isn't someone that's assigned to initiate that conversation. I think before an incident happens it's a good idea to have somebody, whether like we talked about is the incident lead that their responsibility is to hold this after action so that it actually gets accomplished. Bryan Strawser: I think in a lot of cases this doesn't happen out of ... It's not because of malice that after actions don't occur, it's that we just get busy. Where we've had the event and now we're post-response and we're in recovery and we're thinking ahead to what's next and we probably don't do this full time. We're already thinking about, "I've got to go back to my regular job and do this other stuff." Yeah, but you need to also talk about what ... You will never get better if you don't engage in some type of after action process with some accountability. Jen Otremba:      Sometimes there's the idea that you just want to move on. Let's just put that behind us, let's just move on, let's just move on. Bryan Strawser: What was it? Who was it that said that if we don't learn from history then we're doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past, we may as well lie down on the railroad tracks so the train of history can run over us? Jen Otremba:      Right, and everyone's been in an organization that just repeats the same mistakes. The after action is a way to correct that. Bryan Strawser: It's a way to make sure you only commit original new mistakes. Jen Otremba:      Yeah. Bryan Strawser: Which are better. Jen Otremba:      Yeah, better new mistakes that you're making, because we all make them. There's always getting better. Bryan Strawser: I think that's always ... Yeah, I was trying to think about the other discussions that I've had in my career on this. I think that particularly if you have a well oiled crisis process, the after action stuff can seem like kind of a drag. Because I remember coming out of Hurricane Sandy, where we had performed at our old employer really, really well. The CEO was thrilled and the board was thrilled. Local communities were thrilled. We had really come off of pretty phenomenal management of the situation. And then we had to sit there and go, "Yeah, but God, there's like 40 things that didn't go great." Jen Otremba:      I was going to say, and I eventually guessed, that during an after action [crosstalk 00:16:26] Bryan Strawser: Yeah, we had a whole list of stuff, good and bad and ugly, that were like, we've got to figure these things out so that we can be better. I'm not sure how we could have been better. Jen Otremba:      Except for those 40 things. Bryan Strawser: There was a list of things. There was a list of things we thought we could do better but our results ... Jen Otremba:      We needed to order the pizza earlier. Bryan Strawser: We need to order pizza early. There were so many problems, so many problems. I think that's worth bringing up, that I think a good crisis team is going to identify lots of opportunity for improvement. There's also opportunities for improvement that are big and that take time to result. I know one of the issues I recall coming out of Hurricane Sandy is we thought that we had licked this, how do we get access to a site, how do we get credentialed to gain access to get our people in and get our equipment in in order to recover a location that was critical infrastructure, and that worked. Except in one state. In that one state, the state was like, "Well yes, you can get in." So here we go, convoy of trucks and stuff going in, and then you get township officials going, "No, we're not open for business here." We're like, "Wait, but the state told us ... " We had to find a way to fix that. That took forever to figure out. You had to move some political mountains to make that happen. Jen Otremba:      Yeah. I also think too, from the outside looking in it may seem that everything went really well and everyone's giving you kudos and a slap on the back and all this. You're doing really good things. Like you said, we did all these great things during Hurricane Sandy. But you internally, your team internally knows that there are things that could be made better. Bryan Strawser: Yeah. To me, I think that that's just part of being a good crisis leader, is the ability to see that there's things that you can always be better. You're always enhancing those and figuring out how to prioritize that through a good process. Jen Otremba:      I think it should be implemented into your process, so you go through the crisis, after action is documented right in there as the next step. Bryan Strawser: Right. So have an after action process and have those difficult conversations about how to do better. Be transparent and share the information. You'll be better for it over time and so will your response.

In this episode of our BryghtCast edition of the Managing Uncertainty Podcast for the week of October 7th, 2019,  Bryghtpath Principal & CEO Bryan Strawser and Consultant Bray Wheeler take a look at current risks and upcoming events: BBC News:  Brexit: Deal essentially impossible, No 10 source says after PM-Merkel call BBC News:  Turkey boosts troops on Syrian border after operation warning BBC News:  NBA boss Adam Silver defends freedom of speech amid China row Washington Post: Republicans deliver rare rebuke of Trump, slamming his Syria withdrawal decision Episode Transcript Bryan Strawser: Hello. Welcome to the Managing Uncertainty Podcast. This is our BryghtCast edition for the week of October 7th, 2019. I’m Bryan Strawser, Principal and CEO here at Bryghtpath. Bray Wheeler: This is Bray Wheeler. I’m a consultant here at Bryghtpath. Bryan Strawser: As everyone knows during this edition we take a look at some hot topics and things that are going on or that we think are going to happen around the world and talk about their impact on the business and nonprofit community. I think we’re going to start today with some discussion about the European Union and the United Kingdom. Bray? Bray Wheeler: Everybody’s favorite topic, Brexit. The reason we’re mentioning this week and to kind of be brief, but some developments that have happened here at the beginning of this week the United Kingdom is kind of active in discussions with the EU and some of those partners to try and negotiate their way out of Brexit. They’re hoping that the EU will give some kind of latitude or make some concessions in the debate, and the EU is holding pretty firm. Bray Wheeler: The notable event that happened this week was a call between German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and prime minister Boris Johnson of the UK. They had a pretty frank discussion by all accounts. Boris was trying to lay out his plans. Chancellor Merkel was having- Bryan Strawser: None of it. Bray Wheeler: … none of it. They really didn’t end up with any kind of an agreement between the two of them. To kind of pile onto that the European Council President, Donald Tusk, also today, we’re recording this on Tuesday, mentioned… had some pretty stark words for Mr. Johnson over what the UK is planning to do. His quote in I believe his tweet was, “What’s at stake isn’t winning some stupid blame game, at stake is the future of Europe and the UK as well as the security and interests of our people.” You don’t want a deal. You don’t want an extension. You don’t want to revoke. Bryan Strawser: They’re just going to leave. Bray Wheeler: Yeah. Bryan Strawser: Right? Bray Wheeler: Essentially my impression is Boris is putting on a show. Prime Minister Johnson is putting on a show with no real intent to re