Podcasts about Core business

Open Forum: Pastor Amos and the group explored the intersection of entrepreneurship, ministry, and spiritual journeys, emphasizing that success in both business and calling requires patience, clarity, and focus. They discussed how visions from God often take time to manifest and encouraged viewing entrepreneurship as a marathon rather than a sprint. Doyin shared her journey of leaving a 9-to-5 to grow her business, while Stephanie received guidance on narrowing her focus to one core income-generating project aligned with her purpose. Pastor Amos advised against spreading energy across too many ventures and stressed the importance of mentors who actively practice what they teach. The group also engaged in theological discussions, with Pastor Amos explaining the historical context of tithing and church evolution, helping Rosalind and Arlene navigate shifts in tradition and doctrine. Partner with Us: https://churchforentrepreneurs.com/partner Connect with Us: https://churchforentrepreneurs.com                  

Se správnou podporou technologií budou firmy schopny efektivněji využít hodnotu svých lidských zdrojů. Kdo do tohoto vlaku včas nenaskočí, bude velmi rychle někým předběhnutý. To v dnešní epizodě Buduj značku shrnuje Martin Maštalír, generální ředitel Dell Technologies Slovakia a současně Sales Lead pro český trh. Martin Maštalír je rovněž prezidentem American Chamber of Commerce Slovakia. V dnešním rozhovoru probíráme právě umělou inteligenci a její výrazný vliv na digitalizaci a efektivitu řízení společností napříč všemi segmenty trhu. 

Imagine stepping into the role of CEO at just 19 years old, navigating the whirlwind of business growth while wrestling with the weight of immense responsibility. That's precisely what our guest, Wil Schroter, founder of startups.com, experienced. Through candid reflections, he shares personal milestones that marked both triumphs and tribulations, revealing how the relentless pursuit of stability shaped his entrepreneurial path. Despite achieving financial success, Wil opens up about the physical and mental toll of overworking, emphasizing the crucial lessons in self-care and health he gained later in life. We tackle the nuances of ageism and leadership through Wil's experiences as a young CEO in the 1990s. His natural curiosity and passion for understanding people became his guiding force, allowing him to see beyond the surface and embrace empathy in business. Discover the origins of startups.com and how a period of managing multiple ventures led Wil to reevaluate his priorities, thanks to insights from his wife. This journey underscores the importance of aligning actions with values and reassessing what truly matters, especially in the ever-evolving startup landscape. Balancing work, health, and family emerges as a central theme, with a focus on maintaining personal connections within growing companies. Wil shares his insights on setting boundaries and preventing work from consuming every waking moment, a challenge many founders face. From the necessity-driven roles in early-stage companies to the adaptability required for scaling, his story offers valuable lessons for entrepreneurs aiming to harmonize business aspirations with personal well-being. Join us as we explore these compelling themes and gain a deeper understanding of the motivations and priorities that define a successful entrepreneurial journey. Timestamps 00:00 - Introduction and Welcome to the Legacy Podcast 00:37 - Reflecting on Wil's Journey from Young CEO at 19 01:20 - The Immense Pressure and Responsibility of Rapid Business Growth 02:15 - Personal Costs of Success: Physical and Mental Toll 03:05 - The Fear of Instability Rooted in Challenging Upbringing 04:00 - Insights on Health and Self-Care Learned Later in Life 04:55 - Navigating Ageism and Seniority as a Young CEO in the 1990s 06:00 - The Power of Curiosity and Asking Questions in Leadership 08:05 - Realization of What One Can Do vs. What One Should Do 11:07 - Exploring Startup Evolution and Learning from Mistakes 12:00 - Aligning Business Ventures with Personal Values and Passion 13:00 - Pivot from Fundable.com to Startups.com as Core Business 14:00 - The Necessity of Adaptability in Staffing and Leadership 16:00 - Maintaining Close Personal Connections Within Organizations 17:00 - Setting Boundaries to Prevent Work from Encroaching on Personal Life 19:00 - Insights into Creating Longevity and Sustainability in Entrepreneurship 21:00 - Encouragement to Teach and Inspire Future Entrepreneurs 22:00 - Wil's Commitment to Helping Others Build Their Own Destiny 24:00 - Where to Find More Information About Startups.com and Wil's Work 25:00 - Closing Remarks and Gratitude from the Podcast Host   Episode Resources: Find out what Wil is up to here: https://www.startups.com/ Legacy Podcast: For more information about the Legacy Podcast and its co-hosts, visit businesslegacypodcast.com. Leave a Review: If you enjoyed the episode, leave a review and rating on your preferred podcast platform. For more information: Visit businesslegacypodcast.com to access the shownotes and additional resources on the episode.

“We need to get better, better, better at core. Not newer, bigger, different.”   Chief, today we cover something that is absolutely dominating everyone's thoughts in a hyper-distracted world, and that is cutting out the noise and getting back to strategic intent and focus. Executive teams are under relentless pressure; from technological change, shifting workforce expectations, and increasing compliance, to the ever-present noise of geopolitics and market urgency, it's easy to get pulled in a hundred directions and lose sight of what actually drives value. When leadership spreads itself too thin, focus disappears, risk increases, and performance suffers. Chief, getting back to your core business is more important now than ever. I share the framework I use with Chiefs and boards across the globe to help them identify their true strategic priorities, cut through distraction, and optimise their systems to deliver real impact. Because when leaders waste energy on the wrong things, the business pays the price: in culture, in profit, and in reputation.

Welcome to this solo episode where I'm trying something a little different by going solo and focusing on key business principles that I find to be really important. What I wanted to do differently was explain these ideas through relatable stories and analogies, something I picked up from my teaching days. I share several personal experiences and then break down the business lessons we can take away from them. We talk about the significance of a solid foundation versus just outward appearances, the value we assign to things based on effort, and even those hidden problems we might not see. Ultimately, it's about understanding different aspects of business and life through these everyday comparisons.Timestamps below. Enjoy!---Watch this on YouTube instead here: tkopod.co/p-ytAsk me a question on or off the show here: http://tkopod.co/p-askLearn more about me: http://tkopod.co/p-cjkLearn about my company: http://tkopod.co/p-cofFollow me on Twitter here: http://tkopod.co/p-xFree weekly business ideas newsletter: http://tkopod.co/p-nlShare this podcast: http://tkopod.co/p-allScrape small business data: http://tkopod.co/p-os---00:00 Exploring Business Principles Through Analogies04:49 Lessons from the Vasa: Stability vs. Appearance10:06 The Value of Hard Work: Basketball and Business14:53 Hidden Challenges: The Treadmill Analogy20:13 Cleaning Up Messes: Life Lessons in Business

Coffee with Samso Episode 204 is all about Lupins and Lupin Protein Isolate. Coupled with the favourable growing climate in Western Australia, Wide Open Agriculture Limited (ASX:WOA) could become a major player in a billion-dollar market. The Wide Open Agriculture came across my screen about two weeks ago, and it caught my attention because I was doing content on superfoods and came across the benefits of lupins in 2019. While I was doing research over time, the share price of the company started to move, and in fact, on the day I was talking to Yazi Zhan, the Non Executive Chair of WOA, about making an appearance on Coffee with Samso, she was in the middle of dealing with her company's share price going for a run to a high of AUD $0.029, from the previous trade of AUD $0.016. In today's episode of Coffee with Samso, we are talking to Yazi Zhan, who knows this business intimately and will give us a good insight into firstly the benefits of Lupin and Lupin Protein Isolate, followed by what I think could make WOA a global player in the highly sought-after plant-based nutrition business. The Business of Wide Open Agriculture Limited. Wide Open Agriculture Limited (ASX: WOA) is planning to be in the global plant-based protein sector, thanks to its proprietary technology that unlocks the full potential of lupins—a high-protein, regenerative legume native to Australia. As the exclusive holder of intellectual property for extracting lupin protein isolate, the company is positioning itself at the forefront of the clean-label, sustainable food movement. At the heart of this innovation is BUTINE PROTEIN, Wide Open Agriculture's signature lupin protein isolate. Clean, allergen-friendly, and remarkably versatile, BUTINE PROTEIN offers a powerful alternative to soy and pea proteins, catering to the fast-growing demand for ethical and environmentally responsible nutrition. With this cutting-edge IP and a focus on regenerative farming, Wide Open Agriculture is not just producing protein—it's pioneering a smarter, greener way to feed the world. Chapters: 00:00 Start 00:09 Introduction 03:30 Who is Yaxi Zhan? 05:18 History of WOA? 08:28 Discussion about Lupin 15:06 Lupin Isolate 17:20 Importance of the China Market Approval 20:47 How does WOA protect its Core Business? 25:36 Limitations of Growing Lupin Gives Australia a Natural Advantage. 26:42 Types of Lupin 28:30 Competitors? 30:52 Market size for Lupin 36:50 What are the business triggers for WOA? 38:50 Funding strategy 40:05 Takeaway 40:43 News flow 41:37 Conclusion About Yaxi Zhan Yaxi is Mongolian Chinese and has called Perth home since 2004. In under 12 years, she transformed her career from a finance professional into a mining executive. With a strong background in business development, mergers and acquisitions, and cross-border transactions, Yaxi founded Accelerate Resources—an ASX-listed resource company—and served as its Managing Director from 2017 to 2024. Most recently, she has taken on an exciting new challenge as Chairman of Wide Open Agriculture, where she is leading the company's growth strategy. About Wide Open Agriculture Limited At Wide Open Agriculture, our mission is to create a range of great-tasting and high-performing plant protein ingredients. We are focused on developing high-performance lupin proteins that improve outcomes for: Customers Food Manufacturers Farmers We see a global movement for greater inclusion of plant proteins in daily diets. We also see compromises in existing offerings and believe that there are better alternatives. By developing better end markets, we see plant proteins as a positive force for change in the agriculture industry, where lupins can play a key part in reducing emissions and improving agricultural systems.

In this episode of The Quality Hub, host Xavier Francis dives into LRQA's recent acquisition of Core Business Solutions (CBS) with guests Ian Spaulding, CEO of LRQA, and Scott Dawson, President of CBS. They explore the history of both companies, the strategic reasons behind the partnership, and how it will enhance compliance solutions for businesses—especially small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs). With CBS's expertise in helping small businesses navigate compliance and LRQA's global reach, the two companies aim to expand technology-driven solutions for certification, cybersecurity, and supply chain risk management. Tune in to hear how this collaboration is set to reshape the future of compliance support worldwide. Helpful Resources: Contact us at 866.354.0300 or email us at info@thecoresolution.com A Plethora of Articles: https://www.thecoresolution.com/free-learning-resources ISO 9001 Consulting: https://www.thecoresolution.com/iso-consulting

“You've got to have the wherewithal and the EQ to know when to stick your nose in and ask the questions, and other times to trust and let people get on with it. Noses in, fingers out.”   In this episode of The Inner Chief podcast, I speak to Angela Tsoukatos, CEO and 20 years executive team member, on pivotal career moments, how to focus on core business, and the most effective ways the Board and C-Suite can work together.  

As the year comes to a close, I want to take a moment with you to reflect, celebrate, and plan for what's ahead. In this episode, I share the five key areas to review before stepping into the new year: vision and goals, marketing performance, sales and customer engagement, operational excellence, and self-mastery.I've laid out reflection questions, action steps, and a framework to help you not only celebrate your wins but also create a clear plan for your next chapter. Whether you're crushing it or navigating challenges, this episode is your roadmap to intentional growth.Your Year-End Blueprint: Reflect, Refocus, and RechargeReflect to gain clarity—it's the key to intentional progress.Set specific, actionable goals to stay aligned with your vision.Adapt your marketing strategies to meet your audience's evolving needs.Focus on customer engagement to drive meaningful sales growth.Streamline processes for efficiency and operational success.Prioritize self-mastery—it's the foundation of effective leadership.Celebrate small and big wins to fuel your momentum.Commit to self-care to achieve work-life harmony and sustained energy.Let's make this your most intentional year yet. DM me on Instagram @itsgeorgebryant or share your reflections with your audience and tag me. Let's grow together and make 2025 unforgettable!–We weren't meant to do this alone… Whether it be business, relationships, or life. This is why this is an invitation for you…to join us inside the Relationships Beat Algorithms Alliance!!!Click here for a summary of the Alliance because if you're coming here into the show notes, there's a good chance you already know! ;)—We've made it easy to see George's top 10 book recommendations! Click here to find George's top 10 recommended books for mindset, customer journey, and relationships. —Questions or comments about the episode? I'd love to hear from you! Send me a DM over on Instagram @itsgeorgebryant or pop on over to our free Facebook community, Relationship Beat Algorithms. —Links not showing? Hop on over to our podcast blog, mindofgeorge.com/podcast for all the links from the show notes.—What do we talk about in this episode?00:13 The Power of Reflection00:51 Understanding Iterations01:00 Creating the Questionnaire01:10 Episode Breakdown01:24 Importance of Reflection01:36 Continuous Improvement02:26 Setting the Stage for Reflection02:51 Gratitude and Community03:15 Core Needle Movers03:24 Vision and Goals03:39 Using Notes and Questions04:14 Celebrating Wins06:14 Reflecting on Vision and Goals14:12 Marketing Performance14:31 Effective Marketing Strategies16:04 Audience Engagement19:53 Sales and Customer Engagement22:14 Effective Follow-Up23:30 Customer Feedback25:05 Operational Excellence27:03 Team and Resources30:58 Self Mastery and Leadership

In this webinar-turned-podcast, Scott Becker delves into 15 essential concepts for business growth and management. From carving out a niche to scaling with clarity, fostering customer-centric strategies, building strong teams, and evolving as a leader, this episode provides actionable insights for entrepreneurs and executives aiming to create thriving, sustainable businesses.

In this webinar-turned-podcast, Scott Becker delves into 15 essential concepts for business growth and management. From carving out a niche to scaling with clarity, fostering customer-centric strategies, building strong teams, and evolving as a leader, this episode provides actionable insights for entrepreneurs and executives aiming to create thriving, sustainable businesses.

In this episode, Scott Becker explores six essential business concepts, including the importance of persistent effort to build momentum, the interplay of culture, strategy, and talent, and the value of outsourcing non-core functions. He also shares insights on sticking to financial goals, avoiding constant goalpost shifts, and crafting effective medium-sized business plans for success.

In this episode, Scott Becker explores six essential business concepts, including the importance of persistent effort to build momentum, the interplay of culture, strategy, and talent, and the value of outsourcing non-core functions. He also shares insights on sticking to financial goals, avoiding constant goalpost shifts, and crafting effective medium-sized business plans for success.

The US DOJ is proposing a breakup of Google's Browser and potentially its OS business as well. How likely is that? Plus Facebook Messenger has added support for HD video calls, audio and video voice messages, generative backgrounds, and support for Apple's Siri. Tubi has introduced a new short-form video feature called “Scenes” that lets users explore short clips from over 250,000 popular television programs and films.Starring Sarah Lane, Robb Dunewood, Justin Robert Young, Roger Chang, Joe.Link to the Show Notes.

The US DOJ is proposing a breakup of Google's Browser and potentially its OS business as well. How likely is that? Plus Facebook Messenger has added support for HD video calls, audio and video voice messages, generative backgrounds, and support for Apple's Siri. Tubi has introduced a new short-form video feature called “Scenes” that lets users explore short clips from over 250,000 popular television programs and films. Starring Sarah Lane, Robb Dunewood, Justin Robert Young, Roger Chang, Joe. To read the show notes in a separate page click here! Support the show on Patreon by becoming a supporter!

In this episode, Nolan and Kelli talks with Silicon Valley prodigy turned seasoned operator and former Google director Jared Fliesler.From revolutionizing feedback systems to challenging the "founder mode" hype, Jared shares raw insights from his journey as Silicon Valley's youngest executive. But that's just the beginning – he also unveils the psychological trap keeping high achievers perpetually unfulfilled (hint: it's not what you think), and shares the counterintuitive secret to genuine satisfaction. Whether you're a startup founder, HR leader, or ambitious professional, this episode will fundamentally change how you think about performance, leadership, and success. Warning: your perspective on workplace traditions will never be the same.*Email us your questions or topics for Kelli & Nolan: hrheretics@turpentine.coHR Heretics is a podcast from Turpentine.

Marika Püspök is the Chief Climate Officer of the Wiener Stadtwerke Group, since February 1, 2024. This is Viennas main infrastructure service provider for mobility and energy. It handles over 16.000 employees and several minicipal players like the Vienna energy provider, the Vienna public transportation services, the Vienna garage operators and many more. In short: It is one of the biggest employers in Austria.Her task is to set up the strategy of the self proclaimed climate protection corporation. That includes implementing ESG and sustainability in the Group. And because of all of that I have been looking forward to this chat now for a long time.About the FutureStrategist podcast and Florian:Hi, my name is Florian Schleicher I am a marketing strategist focussed on sustainability. Having worked with big corporates, NGOs, start-ups and agencies for over 15 years, I know my way around a lot of challenges. Let me help solve your challenges with my know-how and my Marketing Studio FUTURES.Also: If you enjoy reading, be sure to check out my FutureStrategies newsletter. I write about marketing, strategies and sustainability available every three weeks and I am sure you will find a lot of exciting and helpful insights there.And if you have a challenge that keeps you and your company from doing your best work and this challenge is about marketing, strategies or sustainability, then I'd love to get to know you and your projects!

Integrating well-being into your core business strategy is essential for fostering a productive and engaged workforce. Ana Smith, Chief Learning & Wellbeing Officer and author of "Change Your Mindset, Change Your Life," emphasises that well-being extends beyond perks—it's fundamental for long-term productivity and employee satisfaction. Embracing feedback, overcoming resistance to change, and embedding well-being into the organisational fabric are crucial steps. Discover how adopting these strategies can enhance employee engagement, reduce turnover, and drive overall success. [00:39] - About Ana Smith   Ana is a Chief Learning and Well-Being Officer.  She is the author of a book titled, “Change Your Mindset, Change Your Life.”  Suzie has recently launched her innovative human systems practitioner program. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/tbcy/support

Today, I'm joined by Colin Watts, CEO of Thorne. Enhancing well-being with personalized health solutions, Watts leads an integrative approach combining rigorously crafted nutritional supplements and biometric testing. In this episode, we discuss Thorne's evolution from supplements to science-backed wellness. We also cover: Thorne's emphasis on quality and innovation Expanding into diagnostics and personalized nutrition Colin's insights from a 30-year career in consumer healthcare   Subscribe to the podcast → insider.fitt.co/podcast Subscribe to our newsletter → insider.fitt.co/subscribe Follow us on LinkedIn → linkedin.com/company/fittinsider   Thorne's Website: https://www.thorne.com/ Thorne's IG: https://www.instagram.com/thornehealth   -   The Fitt Insider Podcast is brought to you by EGYM. Visit EGYM.com to learn more about its smart workout solutions for fitness and health facilities.    Fitt Talent: https://talent.fitt.co/ Consulting: https://consulting.fitt.co/ Investments: https://capital.fitt.co/   Chapters: (00:00) Introduction (01:44) Colin's and Thorne's Background  (06:34) Thorne's Core Business and Evolution (11:07) Innovation and Consumer Focus (13:58) Health Kits and Diagnostic Testing (19:03) Challenges and Opportunities in Wellness (23:19) Thorne's Partnerships (28:52) Colin's Vision (37:20) Future Roadmap (39:26) Conclusion  

In this episode, Scott Becker shares 12 key stories, covering the impact of a robust September jobs report on the market, year-to-date performance of NASDAQ and S&P 500, and the evolving Harris-Trump race. He also touches on major stock movements from Tesla to Microsoft, the resurgence of Abercrombie & Fitch, and the importance of core […]

In this episode, Scott Becker shares 12 key stories, covering the impact of a robust September jobs report on the market, year-to-date performance of NASDAQ and S&P 500, and the evolving Harris-Trump race. He also touches on major stock movements from Tesla to Microsoft, the resurgence of Abercrombie & Fitch, and the importance of core […]

Is your company's existing growth formula finally reaching its limit?Bain & Company partner Chris Zook says you may need to redefine your core business if you want to power new growth. Zook was co-head of Bain's Global Strategy practice for 20 years. He's also a best-selling business author.In this episode, he shares three warning signs that indicate your core business needs to be redefined, and he explains how to approach that transformation. In particular, he focuses on how to uncover what he calls “hidden assets” within your company that can offer future sources of growth.Key episode topics include: strategy, competitive strategy, growth strategy, transformation. HBR On Strategy curates the best case studies and conversations with the world's top business and management experts, to help you unlock new ways of doing business. New episodes every week. · Listen to the full HBR IdeaCast episode: Unleash Your Hidden Assets (2007)· Find more episodes of HBR IdeaCast· Discover 100 years of Harvard Business Review articles, case studies, podcasts, and more at HBR.org]]>

The last nine years have been quite a wild ride for Cars24. It has gone from being a consumer-to-business auction platform for dealers to buy used cars, to becoming a consumer-to-consumer marketplace for used cars. It has seen its fair share of highs and lows along the way. Off late, once again, the business has been floundering. But Cars24 is dealing with it by undergoing its most intense and unexpected makeover yet. It seems to be transforming into a full-blown fintech. The startup got a non-bank license  to finance used cars half a decade ago. Back then, its financing arm was meant to be a lever to sell more cars. But now it is much more than that. Tune in. 

What's going on in Global Trade this Week? Today Trade Geek Pete Mento & Doug Draper of Inland Star Distribution cover: 1:30 -Focusing on Core Business 4:25 -Lineage Logistics $4.8 billion IPO 10:02 -Halftime 20:38 -WHO Agrees to Ecommerce Standards, Except for US 21:52 -UPS Peak Season Surcharges https://www.capwwide.com/international-insights/7/31/24/gttw-podcast-episode-158  

In today's episode of Tactical Business, host Wade Skalsky sits down with Nathaniel Boos from Southern Defense. Discover how Nathaniel's business journey in the ammo industry began and thrived! From starting with high-demand ammo to growing into a comprehensive outdoor store, Nathaniel shares insights on building a foundation, securing recurring customers, and navigating challenges in the industry. Learn about their focus on retail and wholesale operations, the importance of supporting mom-and-pop shops, and their strategic approach to scaling and providing value. Join us for an in-depth look at the strategies and passion behind their success. 

Sarosh Waghmar, the founder of Spotnana, shares his origin story and the journey of building a travel as a service platform. He started as a consultant and became obsessed with frequent flyer miles, which led him to launch a Yahoo News group called Spotna. He then started Spotnana as a business class discounted travel agency and eventually pivoted to building a platform for the travel industry. The goal is to provide trust, transparency, and a seamless travel experience by rebuilding the legacy infrastructure of the industry. The platform is open to corporations, travel management companies, and other technology companies to use and build upon. Spotnana is focused on building a platform that enhances the travel experience through AI and cloud technologies. They prioritize improving service and support for business travelers, providing a companion throughout their journey. The goal is to create a seamless and proactive user experience, offering real-time information and options to travelers. Spotnana aims to be a platform company, connecting all stakeholders in the travel industry and revolutionizing the distribution of prices and content. They believe in the importance of trust and putting customers first. Scaling challenges are managed through ruthless prioritization and staying true to values and principles. The future of travel includes AI-driven support, enhanced user experiences, and a focus on creating trust and value for customers. Takeaways Sarosh Waghmar started in the travel industry by launching a Yahoo News group called Spotna to share tips on maximizing frequent flyer miles. He then founded Spotnana as a business class discounted travel agency and later pivoted to building a platform for the travel industry. The platform aims to provide trust, transparency, and a seamless travel experience by rebuilding the legacy infrastructure of the industry. Spotnana's platform is open to corporations, travel management companies, and other technology companies to use and build upon. Spotnana is focused on enhancing the travel experience through AI and cloud technologies. They prioritize improving service and support for business travelers, providing a seamless and proactive user experience. Spotnana aims to be a platform company, revolutionizing the distribution of prices and content in the travel industry. Scaling challenges are managed through ruthless prioritization and staying true to values and principles. The future of travel includes AI-driven support, enhanced user experiences, and a focus on creating trust and value for customers. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Sarosh Waghmar and Spotnana 01:05 Sarosh's Journey and Obsession with Frequent Flyer Miles 05:02 Transitioning from a Service-Driven Company to a Technology Company 07:43 Challenges in the Travel Industry and the Need for Trust and Transparency 09:46 Spotnana's Platform and its Users 12:10 Travel as a Service and Spotnana's Vision 15:25 Building a Platform and Enabling Innovation in the Travel Industry 20:15 Spotnana's Role as a Travel Agency and Technology Company 22:33 Balancing Innovation and Jeopardizing the Core Business 24:11 Leveraging AI and Cloud Technologies to Enhance the Travel Experience 26:37 The Importance of Being Proactive in Travel Support 29:22 Managing Scaling Challenges and Staying True to Values 31:53 Fostering a Culture of Innovation and Balancing Immediate Priorities 33:05 Spotnana's Vision and Focus on Building the Platform 34:39 Challenges of Hiring and Building a Team during Industry Shutdown 37:05 The Future of Travel: AI, Enhanced User Experiences, and Trust 40:02 Lessons Learned and the Journey Ahead Guest's Website: https://www.spotnana.com/ Guest's Social Media Links: https://www.linkedin.com/in/swaghmar/ Resources and Links: https://www.hireclout.com https://www.podcast.hireclout.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/hirefasthireright/ 

Welcome to MakingTime, the podcast that takes you behind the scenes of the watch industry. In this episode, we have Edward (Eddie) Kozaczek  from Wisla Narrow Fabrics who will be sharing their insights on the inner workings of their business.Join us this week as we sit down with Eddie from Wisla Narrow Fabrics, a long-term partner of ours based in Manchester. In this episode, Eddie shares the fascinating journey of Wisla, from its early days to the present, detailing the technical advancements in the narrow fabrics industry. We explore the significance of custom webbing and the company's evolution, including its role in the safety, defense, and personal protection sectors. Eddie also discusses sustainable practices, the impact of new fiber technologies, and future plans for the company. Don't miss this insightful conversation about craftsmanship, innovation, and growth.Follow Wisla Narrow Fabrics:▶︎ Instagram - [https://www.instagram.com/wislanarrowfabricslimited]▶︎ Web - [https://www.wisla-webbings.co.uk/]Chapters00:00 Introduction to Eddie and Wisla02:04 Eddie's Background and Early Career04:40 Founding of Wisla Narrow Fabrics06:18 Collaboration with ZA and Product Development11:40 Core Business and Technical Advancements13:44 Innovations in Textile Industry17:57 Special Projects and Future Prospects21:31 Exploring Polyester and Antimicrobial Finishes22:38 Sustainability Initiatives and Recycling Efforts25:07 Journey of Building a Business26:24 Challenges and Innovations in Webbing Production28:16 Adapting to Market Changes and New Opportunities31:10 Technical Advancements and Social Media Presence34:44 Documenting the Production Process39:25 Conclusion and Future ProspectsTune in to MakingTime to gain a deeper understanding of the watch industry and to hear from the experts themselves. Don't miss this insightful episode that will leave you with a newfound appreciation for the craftsmanship and artistry that goes into creating every timepiece. Subscribe to our YouTube channel to stay updated on all our episodes.Thank you for joining us on this journey into the heart of the watch industry. Stay tuned for more behind the scenes insights on MakingTime.▶︎ Watch the podcast on YouTube.Follow Z.A Strap Company for more:▶︎ Website▶︎ Instagram#makingtime #zulualphastraps #watchpodcast Recorded and Produced by Liverpool Podcast Studios ▶︎ Web ▶︎ Instagram ▶︎ LinkedIn

Today I have the great pleasure of sharing a conversation that I recently had with Andrew Oberthur. He is an author and principal. In this conversation, we talked about his recent book The School Leadership Juggle - practical tips for educators to juggle the expectations of the work with the reality of the job. In this episode we talk about many things including the challenges of leadership, remembering your core business and having a life outside of school. I hope you get as much out of this discussion as I did.

Sean Riley, CEO and co-founder of Dude Wipes, shares the story of how he and his friends started the company from their apartment with the goal of creating a better way to wipe. He discusses the challenges of bootstrapping the business, building the bold and irreverent Dude Wipes brand, and scaling the company to over $150 million in revenue. Sean dives into topics like viral marketing, focus and saying no, hiring, company culture, and his long-term vision for Dude Wipes. An insightful and entertaining look at building an iconic CPG brand.[00:00:00] - Intro and Origin Story[00:04:21] - Starting Dude Wipes[00:08:12] - Bootstrapping Out of Necessity[00:11:10] - Founder Dynamics and Goals[00:13:00] - Developing the Dude Wipes Brand[00:18:25] - Hiring Consultants vs Employees[00:23:15] - Dude Wipes Company Culture[00:25:11] - Word of Mouth Marketing[00:28:46] - Making Butt Wipes Fun[00:31:13] - Brand Positioning and Moats[00:33:00] - Evolving Brand and Gender Dynamics[00:36:56] - Defining the Dude Wipes Enemy[00:39:30] - Personal Branding Benefits[00:42:51] - Building to Sell vs Cash Flow[00:48:00] - Acquisition Interest and Market Trends[00:52:06] - Focusing on the Core Business[00:57:45] - Rapid Fire Questions[01:04:56] - Wrap UpABOUT THE HOSTS:Will Nitze is the Founder & CEO at IQBAR - America's leading "brain + body" nutrition startup. With minimal funding, Will has taken IQBAR from zero locations and zero in revenue in 2018 to 10,000+ doors and a projected $50 million in sales in 2024.Joe Lemay founded Rocketbook with business partner Jake Epstein. After being featured on “Shark Tank”, where the sharks passed on a chance to invest – Joe would go on to grow Rocketbook and sell it to BIC for 40 million dollars just three years later.Connect with Sean Riley:DUDE Wipes: https://dudewipes.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/spriles/

Today's episode of The Future of Teamwork podcast features fellow Aussie and disruptive innovator, Luke Williams. Luke, along with show host and HUDDL3 CEO Dane Groeneveld, tackles the concepts of idea generation and building specialized teams that can disrupt habits and roadblocks that prevent success in business. Topics the two discuss include a scarcity mindset and the value of sharing ideas, how to break apart existing recipes and organizational modes of thinking, and the surprising leadership lessons one can learn from the television show Bluey.Key Takeaways- Introduction to the show, a fellow Aussie and Bluey- Luke's background in industrial design and how it contributed to his career, travels, and his role in disruptive innovation- Sharing of knowledge and resources vs. a scarcity mindset- A recipe for moving away from the scarcity mindset- People are cooking from a traditional recipe book, without new and better recipes, new growth theory- Running the core business, not giving employees time to think about ideas that don't support the core business- The myths of disruption, how to be the disruptive change- Rethinking disruptive innovation and creating teams that can evolve the core business- Attack the vulnerabilities, understanding strengths and weaknesses of the product and industry- Breaking apart existing recipes, denying existing cliches, removing the critical success factors to think about value- Taking teams out of the core rigidities and using artificial frameworks and tools- Bluey, Bandit the dad, and a framework of fun that lends to disruptive thinking- The cult of personality is holding teams and individuals back- Hiring and thinking about what ingredients are needed, diversity, and working with the employees you have now- Execution is the commodity, ideas are the most valuable assets; Luke's platform Idea Skills- Ideas are the new oil, and how difficult it is to escape old ideas by not criticizing- A call to action, finding Luke in the world

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (00:37) Banking Net Interest Income Is "Flat To Down" (04:26) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) (13:26) VanEck Ad (14:26) (17:31) Consumer Deposits Have Become "Toxic" (20:07) Schwab (22:15) Chris Expects Mid-Size Banks To "Do Better Than The Big Guys" Next Year (24:43) If There's No Recession, Are Bank Stocks Still Cheap? (27:41) Higher For Longer Will Continue To Be Bad For Banks' Core Business of Taking Deposits And Making Loans (30:19) Bank of America Should Be "Spanked" (32:59) Only A Few Fed Cuts Are Needed To Improve Banks' Position (35:13) Consumer Credit Continues To Be Fine ("Not Even At 2019 Levels") (37:10) Credit Risk Issues For Banks Are Primarily In CRE (38:12) New York Community Bank

View the YouTube version of this episode here: https://youtu.be/vXVAWgm8Ghs?feature=shared Read the related TEK2day article here: https://open.substack.com/pub/tek2day/p/adobe-creative-cloud-is-not-growing?r=1rp1p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

In this week's episode, we dive deep into the strategic decisions surrounding outsourcing in businesses, particularly when it falls outside of the core operations. Join us as we explore the balance between cost savings and maintaining quality, through real-world experiences and lessons learned. We'll discuss the tempting economics of outsourcing technical support and other functions, the unforeseen impacts on customer satisfaction and company reputation, and the crucial calculations that guide whether to outsource or keep functions in-house.Hear firsthand the journey of a tech firm's venture into outsourcing support services, the challenges faced, and the pivotal moment leading back to a focus on core competencies. Plus, get valuable insights on navigating new ventures and the timing of expanding business operations as you approach a planned exit event.Tune in to gain practical strategies for evaluating outsourcing opportunities, ensuring your business remains focused, efficient, and poised for success.CONNECT WITH TOMFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/masterypartnersLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-bronson/Website: https://www.masterypartners.com/Please be sure to like and follow for more great content to help YOU maximize YOUR business value!Tom Bronson is a serial entrepreneur and business owner. He is currently the founder and President of Mastery Partners, Mastery Mergers & Acquisitions, and the Business Transition Summit. All three companies empower business owners to maximize business value and serve business owners in different capacities to help them achieve their dream exit. As a business owner, Tom has been in your situation a hundred times and knows what it takes to craft the right strategy. Bronson is passionate about helping business owners and has the experience to do it. Tom has two books to help business owners on their journey to a dream exit: "Maximize Business Value Playbook," (2023), and "Maximize Business Value, Begin with the EXIT in Mind," (2020). Both are available on Amazon. ...

This week I'm chatting with the queen of business operations, Leanne Woff the founder of Audacious Empires.   Leanne Woff is an Online Business Manager and Integrator, an OBM Coach and the driving force behind the powerhouse operations, systems & growth agency – Audacious Empires. Leanne and her team have quickly become known as the empire builder's secret weapon, delivering and implementing advanced & cutting edge business strategies and systems for their clients to achieve next-level growth & operations excellence. Leanne is on a mission to, not only, transform the way online businesses are run but she's here to support the growth, skills upgrade and earning potential of OBMs and the industry as a whole.   In this episode, we're talking about: the 3 core elements of building next-level operational excellence in your business. How having a cohesive operational process is helping you reach your big goals and helps you have the impact you want. How people, technology and processes can determine your success and your ability to grow and scale Managing your operations, which is usually one of the biggest overheads any business has, so how do we flip this from being a cost to a revenue-generating asset?   We do this by applying systems thinking. Looking at every component in isolation AND in conjunction with everything that surrounds it.   People levers When you're looking at the right people levers, it's about thinking about and asking the questions: The right people, in the right seat, at the right time. Are your people crystal clear on their role and how it ties into the impact you want to make? Do they have ownership of how they accomplish their outcomes and know the resources they can draw from? Do they know the expectations? The dependencies and flow on effects? Do they have room for creativity and innovation?   Technology levers Does every tool have a clear purpose? Does your tech stack connect and operate as its own digital ecosystem? Is it doing what it needs to? Can it do more than it needs to? What tools can we utilise more? What tools double up?   Process levers How do we track and measure? How do we communicate what needs to be done, when and by whom? How do we create SOPs that aren't out of date the second we publish them? Do our processes consider experience? Touchpoints and human interactions? Are some processes using ample brain space and human resources when they could be automated without negative impact?   You can listen to Leanne's first episode here, taking all about creating a killer launch plan - https://suzchadwick.com/podcast/creating-a-killer-launch-plan/   HOW TO WORK WITH LEANNE If you're a multi 6-7-8 figure business owner looking for a team to support or take over your operations then be sure to connect with Leanne - https://audaciousempires.com/ If you're an OBM wanting to upskill then check out Leanne's - https://audaciousempires.com/obm-academy/   CONNECT WITH LEANNE Website - https://audaciousempires.com/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/audaciousempires  LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/audacious-empires/?originalSubdomain=au  *************************************** NEXT STEPS: BOLD BUSINESS ACADEMY - Click here to Join now (foundational) APPLY FOR THE AMPLIFY MASTERMIND - Click here to apply (scale) **** FREE: Simple Business Buckets training - Understand what to focus on in your business https://suzchadwick.com/simple-biz-buckets-sign-up  Masterclass - 5 powerful strategies to grow your business, brand & revenue https://suzchadwick.com/bba-masterclass-registration  **** LINKS: Website: www.suzchadwick.com  Instagram: www.instagram.com/suzchadwick  TikTok: www.tiktok.com/suzchadwick   

In this episode, Adam Jablin and I delve into a dynamic conversation with Morgan J Ingram, CEO of AMP, Paul Bramson, CEO of Bramson Companies, and Rich Horwath, author of STRATEGIC, about mastering the art of sales and the critical elements of connection and emotional intelligence in effective leadership. You'll discover valuable insights for both personal and professional growth in the business realm. To join future Free Friday Training sessions, register at: https://free.dmeltzer.com/friday-training-1 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

How much variety is really within the Director of Operations (DOO) skillset? Today we are going to tell you about what it looks like to be a DOO in a variety of different business models. If you are interested in what it looks like to be a DOO this is going to be a phenomenal episode for you. You will hear from four women who have come through our certification program, and they are all using their certifications in a different way. If you are ready to jump into our 21st cohort, we are open for enrollment right now! Head on over for more information, and to get your application in!   Other Ways to Connect: Private Facebook Community Facebook Page Instagram   Brought to you by the HubSpot Podcast Network

In this episode, Scott shares advice for business leaders.

In this episode, Scott shares advice for business leaders.

In this episode Eran Mizrahi discusses the work he is doing with Ingredient Brothers to make the ingredient search and procurement process easier for customers. Listen in as Deborah and Eran also talk about the importance of building a global team and the challenges that come with it. Eran emphasizes the need for a clear focus on building a global team, while Deb adds that it's essential to have a long-term strategy and find team members who align with the company's values and goals. They also discuss the milestones and challenges of entrepreneurship and the importance of networking.   Eran grew up watching his father grow a successful import business that was built on integrity and customer service. A South African transplant, Eran started his career at Deloitte. From there, he came to New York to pursue his MBA at Columbia '14.Eran was an early employee at Plated, where he focused on building planning and sourcing programs. The team's collective efforts led to a $300M sale to Albertsons.He then went to join Nuts.com, one of the world's largest nuts and specialty ingredient e-commerce companies. He was quickly elevated to COO and quadrupled capacity to support growth in 2020.Fun Fact: Eran took a gap during college to attend culinary school, where he solidified his love of food.   You can connect with Eran in the following ways: Website: ingredientbrothers.com Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/74524657/admin/feed/posts/   Whether you are a C-Suite Leader of today or tomorrow, take charge of your career with confidence and leverage the insights of The CEO's Compass: Your Guide to Get Back on Track.  To learn more about The CEO's Compass, you can get your copy here: https://amzn.to/3AKiflR    Other episodes you'll enjoy: C-Suite Goal Setting: How To Create A Roadmap For Your Career Success - http://bit.ly/3XwI55n Natalya Berdikyan: Investing in Yourself to Serve Others on Apple Podcasts -http://bit.ly/3ZMx8yw Questions to Guarantee You Accomplish Your Goals - http://bit.ly/3QASvymSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's Motivational Monday is all about core business values. Do you have them? If so, what are they, and why did you decide on those particular ones? If you don't, what's preventing you from defining them for your business?

The 7 Money Models PDF Download In this series, Cale goes through a document called The 7 Money Models We Use To Scale Gyms To $100,000/MO Like Clockwork and breaks it down in order to provide value to you, the gym owner, and hopefully help you implement proven strategies for making more money and helping more people reach their fitness goals. This episode shows you the 5 things to grow your business that you should be focusing on, regardless of the level you are at. → The 7 Money Models YouTube Playlist ______________ Grab Our FREE ADS COURSE Run Profitable Fitness Ads & Get More Members In Your Gym Gym Launch Secrets FREE Book (Just Pay Shipping) Become A Prestige Labs Affiliate (Up To 40% Commissions!) Join Us And 10,000+ Gym Owners & Fitness Professionals On Facebook Follow Us On Other Platforms : Facebook Instagram TikTok Twitter

In our final discussion on the 5 Core Business Principles, Mo Ismail returns to talk to Chris about Attraction Marketing. In todays world, few people are looking at your social profiles by random chance. They're looking to see who you are, and what you've done. One of the strongest way you can attract potential clients is to use those profiles to demonstrate your skills and knowledge in your area of expertise. That way you're not just building an audience, you're building trust. In this episode, Mo and Chris talk about a couple of different approaches to creating content and building value to attract the perfect person into your ecosystem. While you may start your career working in a more transactional way, using your time to create trust and expertise through content creation will help establish your personal brand and create an environment where, as Seth Godin say's, you can “turn strangers into friends, and friends into customers”. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Rapid Response with Bob Safian: Should you begin incorporating AI now or wait to see how it shakes-out for early adopters? AI pioneer Rana el Kaliouby urges business leaders to embrace their exploration mindset in order to accelerate faster. El Kaliouby takes us inside her own AI shop, Smart Eye, where she serves as deputy CEO, to share their process for adapting to the latest technology. An expert on emotional AI and its ethical boundaries, El Kaliouby argues that to succeed in the AI era, we need to focus on what makes us human. She offers key lessons about AI's role on your core product and functions as well as the risks of overreaching. Read a transcript of this episode: https://mastersofscale.com/Subscribe to the Masters of Scale weekly newsletter: https://mastersofscale.com/subscribeSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In the second part of Chris's discussion with Mo Ismail on the 5 Core Business Principles, he'll be talking about The Irresistible Offer, and how to create it. It's natural to feel like “the work should sell itself”, but competition has risen to a level where you have to start creating a product, or service, that is SO attractive to a potential customer or client, that they want to buy from YOU. So how do you do create The Irresistible Offer? Two ways - Either lower the price, or create more value. Since we all know that none of us wants to lower our price, and doing so comes with its own perils, Chris and Mo are going to spend their time talking about how to raise the value of what you do, so the client will utter those magic words - “Take my money!” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

For much of human history, mankind didn't have very much in the way of resources. If there was food to eat, we ate it, and we would eat as much as we could, because we didn't know when our next meal was going to come. Fast forward to the 21st century, and we have an abundance of food and mass produced goods which gives us choice. With this multitude of options, we start to ask ourselves “Why do we choose one over the other?”. Why do people buy? What are the core, psychological elements that get people to choose one brand over the other? In the first episode of a multi part series, Chris is joined by Mo Ismail for a masterclass in the 5 Core Essentials of Business. They're going to talk about what it means to “decrease the pain, and increase the gain” for a client, so you, as a seller, can provide them a bridge from their current reality to their desired reality.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

SHOW NOTES:NOTE: Episode 47 will be followed by a guest episode, Tylan Bailey, who made a career move from school custodian to . . . teacher. You won't want to miss it.Thereafter, guest, book, guest, book, guest… will serve as the pattern for our epidsodes until the book selections are completed.Today' s episode includes:Lead purposeful changeWhere are We Now? Where are You?Change the Story!We learn best from others, and PAGE has learned more from teachers than from any other source.What has truly changed as a result or your learning, your leadership, and your work?Work on relationshipsThe Narnia PrincipleSuccess is linked to beliefs, imagination, relationships, and focus.PAGE Break – Shared commitmentAll educators deserve access to quality learning experiences.Words to Live By (Mark Cuban, Albert Einstein, Constance Baker Motley, Allene Magill)Lead. Learn. Change.  the bookMusic for Lead. Learn. Change. is Sweet Adrenaline by Delicate BeatsPodcast cover art is a view from Brunnkogel (mountaintop) over the mountains of the Salzkammergut in Austria, courtesy of photographer Simon Berger, published on www.unsplash.com.Professional Association of Georgia EducatorsDavid's LinkedIn pageMeasuring What We Do in Schools: How to Know if What We are Doing is Making a Difference, by Victoria BerhnardtLearning Forward's standards for professional learning

How do you keep innovating while also making sure your core business stays on point? How do you turn your employees into impassioned storytellers? And how do you get even the most risk-averse stakeholders to get on board with your trailblazing new approach? Reid Hoffman and Bob Safian answer these questions and more, all posed live by entrepreneurs across many industries and stages of scale. Plus Reid reminds us the importance of staying grounded in our humanity amid the spate of big tech layoffs in our Need to Know segment.Read a transcript of this episode: https://mastersofscale.comSubscribe to the Masters of Scale weekly newsletter at http://eepurl.com/dlirtXSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In a world that can get far too complicated, there's nothing quite like simple wisdom handed down. With all that's new in business, there are also core principles that were true in the past, are still true today, and will likely be true tomorrow. That's what we're exploring today with my guest, Bryan Eisenberg: tried and true core business principles. In our conversation, we discuss how to be a “Rice and Beans Millionaire” – how to stop complicating everything and go back to business basics. Whether you are just starting out in your self-employed life, or have been in the business for years, the timelessness of these core principles will always be relevant in today's rapidly changing world. Bryan Eisenberg and his brother Jeffrey are the co-founders of Buyer Legends. Jeffrey was a former investment banker and Bryan a former social worker. They have been entrepreneurs for nearly three decades and have consulted, advised and mentored hundreds of entrepreneurs and businesses over the years, including Google, Overstock, and Disney. They are the co-authors of bestselling books "Call to Action," "Waiting for Your Cat to Bark?," "Always Be Testing," "Buyer Legends," and "Be Like Amazon: Even a Lemonade Stand Can Do It." Bryan and Jeffrey are recognized internationally as pioneers in online marketing, improving conversion rates, persuasive content and persona marketing, and helping organizations improve their customer experiences. And be sure to subscribe to The Self-Employed Life in Apple Podcasts or follow us on Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts so you don't miss an episode. Everything you need can all be found at jeffreyshaw.com. Bryan Eisenberg, thank you so much for being here! Remember, you might be in business FOR yourself but you are not in business BY yourself. Be your best self. Be proud and keep changing the world. Guest Contact – BryanEisenberg.com Bryan Eisenberg on LinkedIn (in/bryaneisenberg/) Bryan Eisenberg on Facebook (/bryan.eisenberg) Bryan Eisenberg on Twitter (@TheGrok) The Rice and Beans Millionaire by Bryan & Jeffrey Eisenberg BuyerLegends.com Contact Jeffrey – SelfEmployedNewsletter.com JeffreyShaw.com Books by Jeffrey Shaw Business Coaching for Entrepreneurs The Self-Employed Summit Watch my TEDx LincolnSquare video and please share! Valuable complimentary resources to help you – The Self-Employed Business Institute — You know you're really good at what you do. You're talented, you have a skill set. The problem is you're probably in a field where there is no business education. This is common amongst self-employed people! And, there's no business education out there for us! You also know that being self-employed is unique and you need better strategies, coaching, support, and accountability. The Self-Employed Business Institute, a five-month online education is exactly what you need. Check it out! Have Your Website Brand Message Reviewed! — Is your website speaking the right LINGO of your ideal customers? Having reviewed hundreds of websites, I can tell you 98% of websites are not. Fill out the simple LINGO Review application and I'll take a look at your website. I'll email you a few suggestions to improve your brand message to attract more of your ideal customers. Fill out the application today and let's get your business speaking the right LINGO!   Host Jeffrey Shaw is a Small Business Consultant, Brand Management Consultant, Business Coach for Entrepreneurs, Keynote Speaker, TEDx Speaker and author of LINGO and The Self Employed Life (May 2021). Supporting self-employed business owners with business and personal development strategies they need to create sustainable success.

EP301 - Annual Predictions, NRF Big Show, Year End Recap This ended up being a slightly longer than usual episode, sorry! If we had more time, we'd make a shorter podcast (to paraphrase Mark Twain). So here are some timecodes if you want to jump ahead: Recap of the NRF Big Show 1:27 Recap of 2022 Holiday and Full Year Results 22:43 2022 Predictions Scoring 30:34 2023 Predictions 54:51 2022 Predictions Recap Jason: NFTs, Web 3, Metaverse, and Ultrafast delivery services are all overhyped and don't deliver meaningful commerce revenue in 2022. Yes Shein exceeds $30B in annual sales, disrupting apparel industry Yes Adoption of BNPL services slows down to less than 15% CAGR in 2022. Yes Amazon opens more than 100 Amazon Fresh grocery stores No Last Mile evolves Veho, X-Delivery, shipium, or Instacart gets aquired No Jason Total Score: 3 of 5 Scot: Amazon launches a competitor to Shopify webstore, possibly via a headless solution on AWS No Amazon wins ultra-fast delivery. Gopuff, Gorilla, or  Jokr goes out of business in 2022 Yes Metaverse gets lots of buzz but no revenue Yes Livestream commerce goes mainstream in the US No Fabric gets acquired No Scot Total Score: 2 of 5 Jason pulls out the rare win! 2023 Predictions Jason: At least 2 retail bankruptcies (besides Party City) BNPL Consolidation (Klarna, Affirm, Afterpay. Sezzle) – at least one merges/exits US or BNPL. Shopify launches an ad product such as a retail media network Meta/Google/TikTok lose ad share to new social media platforms and retail media networks. Live Streaming Commerce Still not meaningful in US in 2023 (less than 5% of social commerce in US) Scot: Amazon uses this 2022 setback/slowdown/reversion to the mean for a public resetting of expectations, but behind the scenes they take share and raise the bar on shipping Shopify is acquired An innovation in e-commerce powered by ai (gpt4) surprises us by how fast it's adopted and how cool it is E-commerce accelerates back to the mean in 2H after a mean regression in 1H. E-com returns 10-15% growth rates. Sephora and/or Ulta move to a subscription model for new product discovery ChatGPT “based on trends and current developments in e-commerce, it is likely that we will see continued growth and expansion in the industry, with an emphasis on mobile commerce, personalize shopping experiences, and increased use of technologies such as artificial intelligence and virtual reality. Additionally, there may be an increased focus on issues such as sustainability and social responsibility in e-commerce” Don't forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes. Episode 301 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday, January 19th, 2023. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:23] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 301 being recorded on Thursday January 19th I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scott Wingo. Scot: [0:38] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason and Scott showed listeners Jason I was looking in our in my podcast app I'm an iPhone user says looking in the Apple podcast app, we had a review in six months so I thought of the top of the show here we would ask folks if you enjoy the show we sure would appreciate a review if you are in that player you go into the app you find our podcast scroll down a fair amount because we have so many episodes about four Scrolls I would estimate and then right there you'll see the Low Five Stars we would love a five star review or any review that you'd like to leave that would be most appreciated, we do this for the reviews so we appreciate it. Jason: [1:21] Yeah I would just add that makes a great New Year's resolution because you can literally accomplish it 5 minutes after you met. Scot: [1:27] Yeah and you get a dopamine hit and feel feel better about yourself sand Jason and I will be very happy, Jason today we are going to talk about two of my favorite topics so number one you just got back from the NRF Big Show and then we are belated with our predictions and recap for last year's predictions so we're going to sneak that in here we're still in January so I still think we're kind of in the new year a little little close here recording on the 19th but I think we're still in that window, so how I was not able to make it at in our F this year but you did and I look forward to hearing what you saw there. Jason: [2:07] Yeah yeah it was a good time obviously the biggest efficiency was your absence. But for any newer listeners that haven't been there before National Retail federation's in Trade Organization represents the retail industry and and this is their big event every year this is a hundred year old show, that is always at the Jacobs Javits Center in Manhattan in mid-January usually in the middle of a blizzard. Um so so a bunch of things worked in our favor this year during the last couple covid years the Javits Center got remodeled and so. The main areas where they do Keynotes and a lot of the big presentations and content are now like a new very nice facility that's very comfortable. And it was unseasonable e nice weather so it was kind of like 30s and 40s and clear no no snow no no blizzard to have to fly home in. Scot: [3:05] That's good. Jason: [3:07] So that got things kicked off on the right foot and then to me the most exciting thing was just the vibrancy, I don't think they've published the final attendance number but I'm pretty confident it's going to be just a smidge north of their 2020 attendance so, that you know given all the things that went on in the last couple of years being positive against your last pre coded year seems pretty good definitely felt like there was a lot of energy people were really happy to be there, and I was particularly pleased because. Last year was not a great year they tried to have the show last year there was just a big pain demick spike in New York right before the show so a lot of exhibitors. Publicly pulled out other exhibitors quietly pulled out and just didn't show and so you know it was kind of this weird thing where they had. Um you know a somewhat empty Spartan giant trade Joe for where they you know they frankly made a bunch of exhibitors still come in spite of the fact that there weren't very many, attendees for them to talk to, several of the Keynotes didn't show up and came via Zoom so it was it was not a good event last year and I was a little worried that that you know people that were forced to participate last year would be resentful and less interested in coming back. But it appears like we're back to normal. Scot: [4:33] This retail thing is catching on. Jason: [4:35] Yeah yeah it's not going away. So a couple of the big trends and we won't go into depth in any of these but you know maybe some of these will come up as topics in subsequent podcast. [4:49] They're the last couple shows there's there there have always been what I'll call digital shelves like electronic fact tags everybody knows I always like to talk about video displays on shelf Edge smart shelf so that know, um what inventory they have on them and. They get incrementally better every year so there were a lot more of them this year they were all better and cheaper. For a variety of reasons I still don't think 20:23 is going to be the year that they become. Super common in the wild but the tech is getting better a related Tech that seems like it has a lot of new vendors in this space is what I call in-store analytics so that's using cameras and computer vision too, measure Shoppers in the store and kind of like Google analytics for your your store again I'm not expecting huge deployments this year but it's, the computer vision technology is just getting more and more amazing and so that the insights that these things can get from relatively few cheap cameras keeps getting better. Um there's a lot of automation at this show so you know there's the usual. Auto store and perfect pick which are two of the big automated Warehouse Systems but there are a lot of other. [6:08] Startup automation things that could bring automated picking to store fulfillment or small fulfillment centers or. Pick to light systems and gloves like a lot of. Get more efficient about fulfilling omni-channel order stuff so automation was a big theme. Another thing that got a lot of space and signage at the show was what all broadly call headless Commerce, so Shopify made a big announcement right before the show that they were releasing a new offering called Shopify Commerce components and so this is kind of a. Upmarket headless version of Shopify Shopify has always been kind of a monolithic web app that you know was a super good fit for very small start-up companies, um and you know some of which have grown to be quite large on the platform, and they've always had a second offering called Shopify plus which was. Intended to be more Enterprise features but the plus mostly meant more Enterprise sales features not necessarily a lot more Enterprise, features in the in the platform and so this new offering seems like. [7:27] You know a pretty evolved set of apis and as a we've talked about in a previous episode of this show, fine but they sometimes called the mock principles, so they had a big booth that was mostly focused on this Shopify Commerce components, Salesforce has a very similar offering they already are kind of more enterprise-e and so they were there and then there's a, I want to call my startup they've been around for a while now so I'm not sure it's fair to call it a start-up but newer more modern Commerce platform. It's called Commerce tools in the chief strategy officer, from from from Commerce tools Kelly has been on our show before they had a huge presence a big booth and sponsored a bunch of stuff so there were between Shopify Salesforce and commerce tools, you definitely got a strong headless vibe in the show and then for old timers, the trade show floor is divided into three sections there's an innovation Center which is all new startups there we had a great Innovation Center this year was mostly International companies so I companies from Israel companies from France, there were very small startup showing some pretty cool Tech there's the upstairs trade show for which is all the. [8:56] Kind of incumbent Legacy vendors the Microsoft's the oracles the ncr's, all the big players with a really big boost and then the more digital players that you know they might exhibit it shop talk or would have exhibited it at shop dot org in the past, they're in the downstairs exhibit hall and it all this is not true but it felt like this year one of the rules that was in place to exhibit at the downstairs exhibit hall is you had to rename your url to end in dot AI. [9:30] Every every single vendor downstairs. Was you know some some execution of AI and some of them were super interesting and, I think we'll talk about this later but I'm very optimistic will be a big part of the Commerce ecosystem this year and some of them are, you know pretty speculative and far-fetched so so you know a good breath of everything and then I'll sum all that up that's what the floor look like the content you know is mostly, some some decent key notes from from Big retailers and the problem with key notes from the CEOs of big retards is they're not necessarily going to share anything. [10:14] Proprietary or new insightful like it's kind of interesting to hear their their philosophies but like I don't tend to learn a lot that I'm going to use, um in my day-to-day gig from the content sessions and in our f, um but what I do love is talking to all the people in the halls and aisles and by far you know kind of trying to take everyone's temperature that I could I could get time with the overwhelming consensus was, this is 2023 is going to be a really uncertain year for retail that there's a lot of, economic challenges that people are going to be really focused on profitability and a lot of the Retailer's talked about how, um their budgets are getting reduced significantly that the focus is really going to be deploying that Capital against things that can have a short term. Benefit to their cost structure and help them get their profitability up and so I kind of interpret that as. We're going to see a lot more a lot fewer investments in customer acquisition and front end systems and a lot more investment in back-end systems and optimizations. Scot: [11:23] Pickle I got a million questions on Automation in you know kind of the state of Art and my mind is still the key the system is there something out there you think at least on the you kind of mentioned in store but I'm thinking more Warehouse side anything there that's kind of. Jason: [11:41] Yeah so there's two big vendor like so Kiva is Amazon's proprietary system and to my knowledge they don't sell it to others yet do they. Scot: [11:49] No but it's still kind of the state of Missouri. Jason: [11:52] Yeah yeah they certainly could have some point so so you know there's kind of two philosophies of these like big fulfillment center automation. [12:02] Go go get bring the goods to a picker or you know you know so you actually move Isles which is what the key this system does it moves bins, um to a human picker that then pulls them out so the picture gets to stand still or these fully automated systems that like you don't bring things in on conveyor belts and so there's two big vendors, um there's a store a vendor called Auto store which is like a, very dense set of bins that are stacked quite high and they're shuttled around on conveyor belts so it's a 3D delivery system of these these bins, and there's a bunch of big retailers if you've highly automated your your fulfillment center in the u.s. like you're probably using Auto store or their competitor perfect, and so both of those had full live demos at the show that where you know are super mesmerizing to watch because they have all these. [13:01] These bins flying around but then went there were was a lot of startups that were more Kevo like, so instead of like a conveyor belt that ends with your exact products you know in a bin ready to package, um these are things that are like lifting shelves and moving the Shelf to a to a picker so even in that Innovation Center there were several Israeli companies that you know we're in a tiny little 10 by 10 booth, with the little robot that could you know lift up a gondola full of products and bring and move it around a warehouse. Scot: [13:34] Merkel and then from afar I saw Shopify really hitting the we're headless to kind of train which I thought was interesting because they kind of have, you just kind of dip their toe in that water I read it as they must be hitting some headwinds maybe at Shopify plus maybe some churn and realize they had to go into that market pretty hard so I wonder if our friends at Fabric and some of these other places were starting to take some share from. Jason: [14:02] Yeah so I don't know if it's as explicit as taking share I think there's this notion new companies are highly likely to start life on Shopify and it's a. If a family member calls me and says I want to start a business and sell something online I'm sending him to Shopify it's the easiest safest best best way to do it, so there's a notion that those companies ought to grow up and you know either by something else or spend a lot more money with Shopify, and so I think a lot of people looked at Shopify plus and they said oh yeah that's that's for the startup companies to evolve into, and then I think a lot of people are looking at the these Shopify Commerce components in that same way I actually suspect that's not the case, the overwhelming majority of startups that start on Shopify are are going to go out of business, right I just the attrition rate is super high and so most companies aren't getting bigger and need a bigger platform, um the I think what they're trying to do by having a mid-tier kind of mid-market offering is not so much help their existing customer base to grow its to acquire, um a new customer base that you know frankly has a little more proven business model and a little more stability to kind of help them with their Journey a little bit right and so, um I think that was the intent but far behind Shopify Plus. [15:23] Shopify plus never got a ton of traction and they actually had a pretty big staff reduction in Shopify plus earlier last year so. E-commerce components does feel like a restart like they're tackling I think the right problem this time like before they were tackling, the Professional Services that they thought you know an Enterprise client would want in order to use Shopify this time they're there they're tackling the. The functionality and the flexibility that a mid-market or Enterprise client might want so I think this is going to be, an interesting play but I don't think it's so much that Bigcommerce or Fabric or Commerce tools, um stoled customers from Shopify I think it's more Shopify want some of those customers in its ecosystem as well and obviously they have a lot of resources to go after them so that's kind of how. How I interpreted it. Scot: [16:20] We will agree to disagree on the a. Jason: [16:26] As we're about to find out from the predictions I am occasionally wrong. Scot: [16:29] Yeah we all are this is the The Humbling part of this program is trying to make predictions and this current world we live in AI everything was one of the things you have to have a DOT AI anything that blew your mind, you and I had chatted about you know we're starting to see a eyes for example that'll create product detail Pages where you anything getting some traction or is it all just. Jason: [16:54] Yeah so so I so a I think there's a trend that's super annoying to me I'm old and curmudgeonly is everyone knows but like, there are a bunch of companies that are decided to AI is cool and then they're just desperately looking for a problem to solve with AI and so and sometimes they don't understand the space very well or the problems or the economics of the problem very well and so there are a bunch of, AI companies, the I don't find particularly interesting right like there's probably 30 AI companies that are like we're personalization engine to do better product recommendations with a i. [17:29] And personalized product recommendations is super important there are, 15 Enterprise products that have been using AI for 15 years and are the is the AI getting much better. [17:43] Yes but. Like the you're not necessarily like bringing anything new to the party when you're you know a small start-up in that space, um so there are you know some things I don't get super excited about. The AI for inventory management is super interesting like these models that are doing demand forecasting that are doing kind of. You know most retailers kind of have a pretty simplistic model for for inventory balancing like you know what what inventory do I put in what fulfillment center how much extra inventory do put in a store for store fulfillment, things like that and now they're using AI to make that much more robust, um AI promotion engines so you know instead of kind of a one-size-fits-all promotion where hey we're going to do 30% off this product across the whole country, um we're going to you know throw some business rules to an AI engine that's going to decide like when and where to offer a promotion and it's going to, factor in a lot more localized factors and personalization factors and so you know there might be deeper discounts and, in some stores and other some circumstances and others are even in someday Parts than others so so I think all of. AI to improve these existing business processes is super interesting and then the the new use cases. [19:12] I'm very convinced that the majority of e-commerce content the majority of product descriptions we read attributes we read are going to be written by AI in the future like it's gotten really good there's a bunch of benefits to having it read it. I'm about in the old days Channel advisor at a bunch of clients they created product content for and then they syndicated that content to a bunch of different retailers and one problem was that content was the same at all those retailers so from an SEO standpoint it didn't look very unique, and one of the things that a I can do trivially is take your master product content and make 10 variants that are. [19:48] Equally human readable but are unique so that you could Syndicate different content to eBay Amazon and Walmart for example which is. Pretty cool and as we talked with mad about last week, you know Goodwill finds is using AI to onboard all their new skews pretty efficiently so I think it's really good for that and then the last thing I'll say is there's a lot of super interesting stuff around computer vision so both, pulling product attributes out of pictures, um using the security cameras in the store to to do inventory checks and to do merchandise and compliance checks and pricing checks, um and stuff like that and using that that inventory to understand customer using those security cameras to understand customer Behavior better even using computer vision to do better loss prevention which loss prevention, is a really big issue with this show and there's an explosion in organized crime this year and so that you know kind of, predicting crime events is kind of an interesting thing the days a eyes doing so like plugging a i into a camera is yielding I think a lot of pretty interesting use cases for retailgeek. Scot: [20:57] Yeah very cool did you get to see some of our favorite folks. Jason: [21:04] I did I did I saw a lot of past guests I think I made a joke on Twitter which we're going to have to do a separate show about how sad I am about everything that's happening on Twitter, but the. The most common thing that happens to me now is I have a loud obnoxious voice that everyone at this trade show can recognize yrg from this podcast and so everyone is super excited and I get tons of compliments I feel bad that you weren't there because it's kind of, it feels nice to have all these people recognized us and talk about how we're you know an important part of their, there we can help them in their job so I really appreciate that and I want to say hi to everyone I, I did cross paths with at NRF it was awesome to meet you and thanks for for stopping and saying hello but then the next word out of their mouth is where is Scott because I'm way more interested in meeting Scott than I was in meeting you. And I have to say that you're you're too much of a big deal the coming in or out. Scot: [22:04] No just I'm allergic to the cold and had a little bit of work to do on my side the auto industry's on a different cycle than the retail industry sadly. Jason: [22:15] Yeah but they are they are colliding have you like Auto Commerce is going to be a big thing. Scot: [22:19] Yes yes was almost all Automotive companies which is kind of out of never did not have that on my bingo card. Jason: [22:27] Yeah they're going to have to rename it AES or something Auto Electronics Show. [22:43] Yeah as everyone knows my pandemic hobby is trenching US Department of Commerce retail data in Tableau and kind of annoying that in our F ended on Tuesday night, so try to get up Wednesday morning and fly home but I had to wait to leave my hotel room because the 8:30 in the morning Eastern Time on Wednesday the US Department of Commerce published, their monthly retail sales data and this month is particularly exciting to me because it's the December data so that lets us do two things. Look at November and December together and kind of understand what happened in holiday and then it also obviously lets us Wicked January through December and start talking about, 20:22 as a whole year which lets me retire all my 2021 talking points so so that was exciting. Scot: [23:36] Recap of what what did we learn. Jason: [23:37] Yeah so that's about a four-hour show but I'm gonna recap the two top lines in under 30 seconds so we'll start with a holiday so if you add November and December sales which I would argue the best view of holiday is November December January, generate data is not available in a lot of people think of holidays November and December so if we just talked about November and December, and I'm going to take a narrow definition of retail for purposes of holiday I'm going to pull cars out, I'm going to pull restaurants out and I'm going to put gas stations out because it's a super volatile thing that's not very tied to Holiday behaviors so November and December sales were up, 5.2% versus last year so from 2021 which was a monster year we went up another 5.2%, now most people were disappointed when they saw that number, big for a couple reasons last year we were up 13.4 percent using the same definition of retail so. [24:38] You know a much lower rate of growth in last year and most people you know are having to comp against last year and they set their financial goals based on last year, and also in the middle of holiday like especially around Black Friday a lot of, third-party analyst publish a prediction they say we have Secret inside data we have credit card data and we think retail sales are going to be 9% or 12% or you know there were all these estimates, there were optimistic, all the digital guys came out and said digital sales are up significantly from the previous year and the inner F came out with these vague statements and said like more people are going to be shopping on Black Friday than ever before so you heard all this good news around Black Friday which made you think. [25:20] This is going to be a big holiday season and then and so you 5.2 sounds like a huge disappointment compared to some of that over exuberant, but to put that in perspective. [25:34] The historical average growth is four point four percent so 5.2% is meaningfully above the historical average, and I don't want to say I told you so but all of you that attended my webinars about holiday performance, I heard that that I was predicting in that five to five and a half percent even even back then so so there's a rare occasion of me getting it right. Here's the piece of bad news about that whole thing that 5.2% was all inflation so if if you adjust those two months for inflation we were actually down 1.8% from last, so the big takeaway from holiday is. [26:12] It was disappointing it was much more difficult to make a profit on this holiday than it has the last several Prophets, so a lot of retailers came in a holiday with pretty robust inventory levels they didn't sell through their inventory what they sold they didn't sell it particular High margins, um and so that's setting us up for a uneasy first half of 2023, retailers have too much inventory and and not enough recent profit so we're likely going to see a lot of discounting and you know more pressure on on income as they kind of work through all that in. [26:47] So that's the holiday Debbie Downer the full year is I think a better story the full year we sold seven point one trillion dollars worth of stuff which that's the first time we passed the seven trillion dollar mark, that's up 8.2 percent from last year again last year was a monster year, the best year in my my career of retail so, being up 8.2% versus that you know again is a really good story it's a bad news is you pull inflation out of that and we were basically flat we were up 0.2. Um so through that lens 2022 was not a fabulous year but the one thing I would say is, what's really interesting is where is retail compared to before the pandemic and cumulatively, retails up 31% from 2019 so so the full year of 2022 is 31 percent higher than 20, um an average year over the last 20 years in retail for a full year would be up 4.7% so. 31% is still almost twice what we would expect over a three-year kakkar so you know not a, knock it out of the park year but still you know very healthy industry on the backside of this pandemic. Scot: [28:09] So if we kind of you know there's that famous chart you hate and then we reverted to the mean does this mean we're kind of back on the meat. Jason: [28:19] Because it's wrong and I get to make fun of it. Scot: [28:21] Do you love to hate how about that are you hate to love I don't know and the so we reverted kind of back to the mean do you think that this kind of resets and we get back to that kind of traditional growth. Jason: [28:35] I still think there's some factors yet to play out so I'm not sure we're going to get completely back to normal for 2023 I think we're going to, we are still seeing some residual pandemic effects and the main residual pandemic effect we're seeing is. The spending is still skewing to experiences more than Goods so there was pent up demand for experiences, so we're you know we're we're possible we're seeing people invest more in experiences and less than Goods, but we're also starting to see a lot more economic uncertainty especially in the bottom two quartiles and so you know you're starting to see even kind of lower middle class people, change their purchase Behavior you know you're hearing in Macy's earnings that they're saying their consumers start starting to make some, you know economic trades in their purchase behaviors and so a lot of that's going to be. Kind of cooked into this 2023 so I don't think we're quite back to kind of perfectly the mean but I do think the, the ratio of store sales to e-commerce is likely to look a lot more normal this year than it has the last couple of years. Scot: [29:47] Pretty cool and this is the one that doesn't really give us e-commerce data. Jason: [29:51] Yeah there's some loose e-commerce data in there which is why I didn't quote it but next month they will publish the queue for e-commerce data so that will give us. A full year of e-commerce, you know we're starting to use these T numbers instead of B numbers in e-commerce. Scot: [30:21] Got it cool we'll have to do a big show on that one and you can just have a two hours a day spewing data. Jason: [30:28] Why I can describe my charts it's soup there's no more fascinating podcast than listening to a dude drone on about a chart. Scot: [30:34] Yeah that he can't see alright world will put a put a pin in that one and come back to it, on the all right so let's talk about predictions so I had to go back and one of our many interns research this it was back on episode 284 where we did our predictions and as is our custom we like to rate and review the prior Year's predictions and then lay down a stake for the next year so if we go I guess you'll kick it off so you'll go through my predictions and I'll say how I did and you'll kind of chimed in and then we'll flip. Jason: [31:10] Awesome and are we going to do off of yours and then all five of mine is that the easiest way to do okay. So we'll start with your first prediction Amazon is going to start getting serious about a Shopify competitor in potentially double down on headless. Scot: [31:27] Yet this was a Miss as far as I know you know what I didn't see coming was Amazon has had a bit of a rough year in and especially the back half of 22 you know they've done some layoffs they've, shuddered a lot of their physical stores they stopped their plans for big grocery expansion. I'll get that get that out on the record here early and yeah they've even started shedding warehouses so I think you know what what's happened is in this post there's been some really fascinating articles where, turns out they had this automated inventory system and its name is Scott ironically with one t and it. They trusted this thing so wholesale lie that it just went kind of Rogue and did not see the downturn you know this. Track attacking back to the mean and it kind of went Bonkers and so it's a little bit of an interesting case study of AI gone wrong and that has them having their hands very busy with their Core Business and they have not had a chance to punch Shopify in the nose and in some ways they may not have to because Shopify also had a lot of wind come out of it sales. Jason: [32:41] Yeah yeah I agree and I'm inclined to give you a note that too but if I were making an argument that you got it partially right the argument would be that they rolled out a really interesting feature called by with. And we talked about on the show we had a beta tester on the show that was super bullish on it and it's kind of a trojan horse that creates them interesting. Problems for Shopify that like frankly I'm still not sure shopify's figured out what they're going to do about but that went from a pilot program to full deployment. The week before in our F and it was a major feature of Amazon's booth and it's weird they branded the booth AWS but like. The booth was talking more about by with prime than it was a WS and and you know they're not they're not in the same divisions Within. [33:31] Um so you could argue by with prime is partly a Shopify competitor, but in the interest of me staying competitive in the predictions I'm not gonna not giving it to you and I will say, of your Amazon commentary is certainly true, but be a little careful like you know people tend to look at some of that and go oh man Amazon's really flailing like they're really feeling you know it's a huge thing for them to cut back on their fulfillment capacity and you know cancel some leases and just remember, they bought more fulfillment capacity than anyone else in the world has in a single year. The year before so it's it's not like they're getting out of retail. Scot: [34:15] You're spoiling one of my. Jason: [34:16] Find that people over over read into the you know that accurate – news but they think it's it's a more material part of Amazon's business than it is. Scot: [34:27] Yeah I integrated that into one of my future predictions. Jason: [34:31] All right so so we're going over one I like it so far I'm winning that your second prediction is Amazon puts a hurting on go puff and others go puff gorilla and Joker. Don't get out of 2022. Scot: [34:48] Yeah I'm going to score this one a win I don't I think somebody's out our business and I think go Puffs on its last legs if it's did it do a Down Round and layoffs and I don't. I certainly haven't even used it I don't know if it's I'm sure it's still around but I feel like it is on its last legs and I'm increasingly here in North Carolina like in Chicago you've had this for a while I'm increasingly getting offers that say Hey if you if you throw a little bit more in the cart you can get this thing overnight which has been kind of you know I feel like Amazon is really starting to shorten that delivery window in this post covid world. Jason: [35:26] Yeah so I'll give you a yes for that I do think a lot of the instant delivery companies like pulled out of markets or flat went out of business or left the US in 2020 so I think that's fair. I'm not sure go puff is publicly position themselves as quite as dire, as you did I could be wrong but they you know they're the biggest player left standing and and I think they have some some positive and negative indicators. The one thing I would quibble with is it's not clear to me if they are if all this instant Commerce not working is because Amazon put a hurt on them or whether, it just wasn't a good business model than enough customers were willing to pay for. Anyway right so I'm not sure if Amazon was the direct cause of all that pain or not but I do secretly think, Amazon has much better service levels than a lot of people realize you live in a wonderful place but it's. It's probably not a tier-one market for Amazon I talk to a lot of people in cities that The the vast majority of their orders are delivered same day and certainly the vast majority of stuff I ordered from Amazon, I get that order in by noon and it's it my doorstep before 10:00 that night and so that still is different than this instant delivery but. [36:49] I think Amazon's service level is darn impressive and I think you know that certainly you didn't want to be an investor in instant delivery in 2022. So I'll give you a yes. Scot: [37:01] Yes Pooh okay. Jason: [37:06] So your third one is metaverse lots of demo videos no Revenue. Scot: [37:13] Yeah think I nailed this one the Facebook has had a lot of Pi interface for spending an inordinate billions and billions of dollars on the Oculus the sales have dramatically underperformed even you know even moderate to light expectations there's no real use case that's popped out of here and then just generally and then certainly if we look at our e-commerce world there's really not much going on here so this one's been kind of a dud I'm a little bummed because I love AR and VR I just don't think we've kind of come up with the use case I think the wild card on this technology is there's increasingly detailed rumors of Apple having a device and if anyone can figure this out I think applicant but until they do, I think we're not going to see a lot of metaverse updates. Jason: [38:01] Yeah yeah I think this is a category that to me like if people are familiar with the Gartner hype cycle it fits it perfectly like. There definitely is a chance that there will be a version of The Meta verse that's very meaningful at some point but right now it's wildly overhyped. One could quibble with your in precise language like you say no revenue and of course there are some, some novel examples where there's a little bit of Revenue and the one that has meaningful revenue is for the kids is real box where you know it's. Game Revenue it gets its you know ingame credit it's not like you know people are shopping for real world of goods in the environment so there's a few things but I certainly think the spirit of your things exactly right that it's, it's wildly over-hyped and not. A financial driver in the in the near future and I would even argue nobody can even agree on a definition of what the metaverse is a it sounds singular to fight this pack that it's it's quite poor rural. You know a lot of people think the metaverse has to be on web 3 which means it's open and, Roblox is the example most people use the meta verse which is not on web three and you know a lot everybody thinks of the metaverse is VR and a lot of definitions of metaverse so Ike. Do not require VR so I don't know I'm cynical in the short term for sure so I'll give you a yes. Scot: [39:27] Okay. Jason: [39:29] For live streaming goes mainstream in 2022. Scot: [39:36] Yeah, here I was hoping to kind of weasel out with the mainstream so I will point to some successes so what not is a very collectible oriented Marketplace that is all live stream and I think they're gnd is north of a billion it may be closing in on two or three so that's pretty mainstream and then I've read probably 20 articles in the last 10 days about Tick Tock e-commerce and every time I dig into it there's no data it sounds like it's just new so I was hoping to take credit for that in some way but don't think I can so I'm going to probably score myself a no on this one. Jason: [40:18] Yeah so tricky like I think there's some use cases where a live streaming has become a thing and collectibles, is certainly one and it does I guess toy depend on what you meant by mainstream here's the thing the most generous definition of social commerce all social commerce in the US last year was about. 60 billion in total sales and live streaming was likely less than 1% of that 60 billion so I. [40:48] Social commerce isn't that big a piece of Commerce and live streaming is in a very big piece of social commerce so I through that lens, I feel like it's not a big thing and fun fact none of the Commerce on Tick Tock is wives. It's so people do I think confused short form video with live streaming, um and so I tend to think live streaming is overhyped in the US it does work in China but what people don't understand is, that live streaming in China is, flash deal-sales like all of them come with a significant price offer and the reason that you you want to watch that stream when it's alive is because, that offer has scarcity attached to it and that offer is not going to be available two hours after the video plays so you have to watch it while it's being broadcast in order to get that deal, um and you know none of the u.s. versions have really been that that deal oriented and without that deal why have live streaming when you could just record a short form video and, you know 100 times more people watch it over the subsequent two weeks or three weeks or whatever so so for all those reasons, I feel like live streaming has been a little overhyped in the US and I agree with you why I probably didn't go mainstream this year. Scot: [42:09] Yeah I don't know Tick Tock could be live stream it's kind of there's a stream. Jason: [42:16] But it's yep are you watching it when the person talks I mean that's what it boils down to or is it recorded on a server and you watched it days later. Scot: [42:23] I don't Tick Tock I don't want I don't want my get brainwashed. Jason: [42:26] Yeah spoiler alert it's not last. Scot: [42:29] Okay. Jason: [42:33] There is a live flavor on Tik-Tok but it's been quite small. Scot: [42:37] Yeah I'm two for two so I'm Batman 50. Jason: [42:40] So you're to noes to yeses and then your final prediction, is that fabric which is a an e-commerce platform / Marketplace and and the CEO Fazal has been on a show a couple times and you were predicting that they would. What says fabric acquisition so that could mean either that they made a big acquisition or they got acquired. Scot: [43:04] Yeah it was being acquired. Jason: [43:07] Yeah that's what I said. Yes and I met him at the show and I can confirm that he's still at fabric. Scot: [43:14] How are they doing. Jason: [43:15] Really well well I think they feel like, there are well positioned and benefiting from some of these headless trends that we talked about and we had a good chat Faso as a longtime veteran of the industry and ran e-commerce at Staples and and some other places so he's always fun to talk to. Scot: [43:33] Here's a head-scratcher so facile likes to be called Faisal and then we have a guy at 50 that wants to be Fazal so so and you know you know how it is like I know it's I cannot get it right because I always it's 50/50 coin toss but it always lands the wrong way so it's. Jason: [43:52] Yes I'm familiar with those dilemmas I also really struggle with fabric because his company is called Fabric and then there's another company called fabric that make micro fulfillment centers for grocery e-commerce. If you like you can have two companies with the same name in roughly the same space. Scot: [44:08] I give him. Entrepreneur credit because he raised a boatload of money when valuations were super high which was smart if it's enough to get through to the from the peak through the valley to the next week so we'll see how it goes for. Jason: [44:25] I'm knocking on wood you just can't hear it because I'm such a good audio editor. [44:39] It's kind of your historical average right now I don't know I'm. Scot: [44:42] Usually do better than half yeah it. Jason: [44:43] You've done better actually I think that's a down year for you I think it's up here for me and a down here for you. Scot: [44:48] Post covid it's hard to predict what the what's going on in the world. Jason: [44:53] And and as we have learned doing five years of these as hard as it is to predict something happens it's also timing is so tricky like very often we predicted something just in the wrong year. Scot: [45:04] Yeah I gave up on Amazon competes with the other shippers and that one still I still think it's coming. Jason: [45:10] Hundred percent there's a weird cognitive bias where like after you've been wrong once or twice you hate to predict it again even though it probably would be smart the. Scot: [45:18] Yeah yep. Jason: [45:20] I'm with you all right well let's see if I can hang with you at all. Scot: [45:21] Alright let's see how you did yeah so your first prediction was you love web 3 you're going to mortgage your house put all your money in FTS and this token that you were super excited about that was going to the mood called FTX how'd that work out for you. Jason: [45:40] It worked out better for Michael investor Tom Brady than it did for me. Scot: [45:44] Well I don't know he's in pretty rough rough time right now. Jason: [45:49] Neither of us are having our best years. Scot: [45:50] Butts. Jason: [45:53] I'll be different reasons but I feel like you might have slightly misstated the spirit of my prediction. Scot: [45:59] Oh yeah I misread this so it says in FTS web 3 meta 15-minute delivery will be Duds less and ft dollar transactions will happen in 21 verses 22. Jason: [46:12] Yeah so I was down I didn't think any of those things would be a big deal this year I guess one of those kind of overlap with you because you also didn't think instant delivery would be a big deal. And I don't think any of them were a big deal we've covered them pretty exhausted lie but in order to make this a fair prediction I tried to put something that was more measurable and so I said in Ft transactions will be down in 2022 from 2021 and. I got to be honest I looked it up before the show and so the good news is I'm right. In Ft transactions gmv for an ftes and in the u.s. in 2021 was 25 billion 25 Point 1 billion and this year it was twenty four point seven billion so just barely down and I have to be honest, I feel like I dodged a bullet because. The way you buy an mft is with a cryptocurrency and the two main cryptocurrencies are each less than half their value. From the beginning of the year and so you would think like, in Ft transaction should be way down just because the value of the underlying currencies is way down but you know apparently like despite the fact that it's not a mainstream thing it grew enough that I was I almost ended up being. Wrong on my on my number but that's a long-winded way of saying I feel like that's a yes. Scot: [47:32] Got it cool so we'll give you a yes prediction to here in North Carolina we call it Sheen you fancy City people call it she in your prediction was that they would do over 30 billion more than double the previous year so since we're a year off so you predicted in 2022 they would double a guest from 2020 1.15 billion you check this close and I do so I'm gonna have you self-regulate this one. Jason: [48:00] Yes I nailed it like almost to the penny except that you know they're not a public company so we don't we don't really know the revenue but that estimates for for 20 21 where 15 billion so I predicted 30 billion in 2022 they did a raise in March or may of May of 2022 and they disclosed during that raised that halfway less than halfway through the year they were already at 16 billion in Revenue, year to date, so I was tracking really well and they're doing another raised right now as we speak and their side note taking a ginormous haircut on that race so the, the May raise was that a hundred billion dollar valuation the razor trying to do right now is it 64 billion, um but they disclosed in the in the deal docks for this raise that they finished the year at 30 billion which is, means that their sales significantly decelerated in the second half of the year but it means my prediction was exactly right. Scot: [49:04] Very good congrats on that one. Jason: [49:06] Yeah and we could be out of time and not do the other other predictions if you want. Scot: [49:10] Well there's one country showing let's jump into this one so your third prediction was buy now pay later which we call B and P L is going to lose momentum it had 29 percent growth and 21 and you said it would slow to sub 15 and 22. Jason: [49:28] Yeah and so it depends on exactly what math you're using but the actual growth rate in 2022 is 48.6% so is that is that more or less than 15. Scot: [49:39] I find that hard to believe. Jason: [49:41] I do too I was surprised. Scot: [49:44] Yeah no I think I'm gonna give you this one because you know the stocks on all these are down clar NE is on life support and I don't know I feel like these guys the the largest, kind of tie up was Peloton and buy now pay later and you know Peloton is had a really rough go of that in 22 and took all you know down the biggest buy now pay later operator with a firm so I feel like he just was a yes. Jason: [50:17] Okay well I'm not gonna argue with you I feel like they got a lot of, negative momentum for a variety of reasons in in 2022 and right now we're seeing their valuations go way down because their default rates are starting to go up and what I'm noticing is, they're all trying to Pivot out of buy now pay later into other, other retail services but like depending on how much of a stickler you might be like they still apparently sold a lot of stuff on buy now pay later last. I'll take the yes or at least I'll take a half a yes. Scot: [50:48] I'll give you the win but I'll scold you for bad predicting like never get specific with percentages. Jason: [50:53] I know I know well I was I feel like so many people make these like lame predictions that I was trying to be super specific but I agree that was that was dumb alright thanks man you should great all my stuff. Scot: [51:02] Now this next one is kind of a Whopper so this is this is kind of my favorite so you predicted Amazon would open 100 grocery stores how's that one going. Jason: [51:15] It's great they opened one store and that store opened 365 times. But if you're doing store count. I missed it pretty substantially that I think they have 44 stores in the US and 17 stores in the UK so well short of 100, the end and I'm way less optimistic that they're going to invest in that that concept, now than I was a year ago when I made this prediction so that's definitely a no the only fun fact is compared to any other retail Concept in Amazon this one did pretty well because they literally closed every other one, and they're they're laying off a ton of the retail people like right now as we speak unfortunately so. So I think that's a clear no it does not seem like the immediate future for Amazon is in brick and mortar. Scot: [52:07] Yeah yeah they've really pulled in the horns on that one. Jason: [52:11] Fun fact then this means nothing no one should interpret this but Amazon close their bookstores in 2022 and Barnes and Noble was opening new book store some joint too so I think there was a time when we would have said that could never happen. Scot: [52:25] Yeah one of these is not going to be going well okay your last prediction was that last you there would be a last mile delivery acquisition of some kind you mentioned instacart v0x delivery and ship iam. Jason: [52:41] Yeah and none of them were acquiring so I think, I miss this I mean if you go deep cut enough I found there's a couple like four million dollar transactions that happen but none of the name ones did anything there they did some fundraising the the premise behind this, this prediction last year was, that one of the ways that a lot of e-commerce sites deliver packages is not exclusively through FedEx UPS in u.s. post office, that increasingly they're using a Federation of a bunch of small last-mile companies and that often there's a middle man that's helping aggregate all those small a smile companies that make it easier to ship with them, and so my thought was that's becoming a more important. [53:27] Part of the e-commerce echo system that somebody's going to try to make a big play there and kind of roll some of them up or acquire some of them and and you know kind of add them together and make something more valuable, um and it didn't happen last year and what's interesting is, Fedex rates and UPS rates are going way up this year like one of the conversations I had with a lot of e-commerce sites, last year was that their last mile costs are going up at an untenable rate so this. This methodology is becoming more important and more popular so this is a classic example, if I were smart I should probably take this this prediction and double down again on it for this year but spoiler alert I did not do that I just took the no and I moved on. Scot: [54:12] All right so out of your five you had sixty percent so you had three correct and to wrong so you you win the year so congratulations you get the virtual trophy you get an mft, ironically you get the nft the Jason Scott exclusive one of one in Ft. Jason: [54:38] I'm super excited about that for all our listeners I only accept in ft's that are minted on proof of stake blockchains I don't accept proof-of-work blockchains because they're an ecologically. Scot: [54:51] So it's Solana for you all right I know we're Up Against Time the shows always go a little long so I'm going to kind of lightning round my predictions for 2023. [55:15] All right so number one Amazon uses the this 2022, perceived setback that I think's way overblown you kind of mentioned it at the top and, I think what's going to happen is sure e-commerce is going to revert to the mean but under the hood I feel like they're going to be taking share at a really aggressive clip, the reason to borrow on shipping the selection of things that are near you is going up, I have through my day job I can see that they are making a lot of good changes with last mile delivery they're still putting a lot of effort into that and improving it and making it better all the time so so basically I think they're going to you know if I have to, get a little more specific I think they're going to take a fair amount of share in 2023 from the rest of e-commerce so they already are like more than half of e-commerce and I think they grab a chunk so that's kind of how I would measure this is what percentage of e-commerce Amazon has and I think they're going to take, pretty good chunk. Jason: [56:19] I like it cool. Scot: [56:20] That's my first one number two is I think Shopify is going to be acquired you know so I think they're doing this headless thing the first party piece hurts them and a lot of you know Facebook so that's a natural Binding Together they're there we're going to talk about it in a future show but they're kind of they have never really executed on this idea of a Marketplace they've had a lot of weird cultural things where they talked about getting rid of meanings and then like their hole. Admin interface was down for days it feels like something's going on they've had a lot of people a lot of turnover they've gone totally virtual I'm not a fan of that I think it's hard to be super Innovative and have to whatever the world changes have to hop on a DSM calls to figure out what everyone's thinking so I think I think they're they definitely we've hit Peak Shopify probably you know in 2021 and this is when it starts to be time maybe some people say hey this wouldn't be a bad time to to tap out here, we'll see. Jason: [57:24] Wow that's awesome one just quick curiosity one problem is the valuation like while it's gone down a lot is still pretty high like so the pool of acquirers is pretty small or are you thinking the valuations going to keep going down low enough that there's. That more people might take a shot at it. Scot: [57:42] Yeah I think I think even at this valuation there's probably three or four acquirers and I think the valuation could go down further. Jason: [57:48] All right cool I like I love the big bold ones. Scot: [57:51] Yeah you're going to hate this next one so this one is where everyone thinks AI is hype I'm thinking there's going to be a big innovation we don't see it from these new AI engines specifically right now the state of the artist G PT 3, I know people have seen GPT for and they all can't express enough how game-changing it's going to be so I think there's going to be something in the e-commerce world not this is like so it has to be kind of a big idea so I can't be just like a chatbot or like another recommendation engine but I think there's gonna be something kind of, big here that's hard, it's so different that it could be hard to I can't tell what it's going to be but I think something big is going to happen here that kind of makes our heads explode so that's my prediction that we actually see a really, disruptive piece of technology kind of AI that impacts the e-commerce world. Jason: [58:47] Okay I like it I don't have a other than it's going to be higher so you hard to measure but I guess we'll know it when we see it. Scot: [58:56] Yeah. Yeah and then since we've got great each other gives you a lot of fodder to push against ich number for e-commerce is going to accelerate back so I think and the first half will have these recessionary wins I'm a eternal optimist you're typically on the pessimist I think we'll have a soft Landing maybe we don't have much of a recession and then in the back half will be kind of through this post covid Hayes hopefully I think part of this prediction in Furs that inflation will will kind of get under control and we'll see e-commerce go back to kind of its average growth rate which has been historically 15 percentage so that's my prediction there. Jason: [59:38] Okay yeah I think they're a bunch of people that are like kind of e-commerce growth is tapped out which is I think they're wildly wrong so I certainly take the bullish side of that one for you. Scot: [59:50] Yeah and then this one I have to give props to my daughter I was she was looking over my shoulder and I was doing these and she said I have one and I said you don't understand the stakes I've got to be Jason because I did bad this year and she said I don't care I'm 16 and I spend a lot of time at Sephora and Ulta this is her speaking not me I also do because I'm with her but now she can drive so I'm spending less time there and I think they're going to come out with some kind of a subscription model so, there you go I don't know any specifics but that is her hot take. Jason: [1:00:21] Okay and and by that you don't mean they're going to transition their whole business to a subscription you mean they're going to add some kind of subscription offering okay. Scot: [1:00:28] Yeah yeah and you know I was thinking you know what was that one there was a box that was Beauty used Beauty Box every over the name of that. Jason: [1:00:38] Yeah there. Scot: [1:00:39] I don't think I made it yeah and I said you mean like that. Jason: [1:00:43] Box is that what. Scot: [1:00:44] Birchbox well very good man yeah old school way to pull that one out and she said no it'll be more like I can go to the store and they'll I can I can pick up kind of like they'll pull stuff for me that comes in and I could just go to the store and it'll be already there for you. To understand. Jason: [1:01:05] Clarifying question because far be it for me like I want to learn to like and your daughter certainly have the future behavior that neither of us understand yet. Is she thinking like that in the same way that Birchbox was kind of a discovery thing she's thinking this is some kind of. Discovery thing of new products because I actually think Sephora already has a like you know if you use this amount of moisturizer will automatically send you a new thing a moisturizer every three months. Scot: [1:01:35] This was tied more to influence your site so I think there's these influencers and they each have kind of staked out you know there each store has a set of influencers and I think she's starting to see them come out with seasonal products kind of like a yeah and I think that it'll be a subscription to that kind of thing. Jason: [1:01:52] That makes total sense that would be new and I. Could seem cool a lot of the traditional subscriptions lately have not done as well as some of us might have expected but so yeah this this will be interesting kind of like the next gen of those Discovery boxes. Scot: [1:02:09] One thing I did notice in my last six I think this is for they have a end cap that says inspired by Tick-Tock and it's always empty. And as estimate I was like are they she's like oh every time they put something there so I was up and I was like wow that's pretty amazing. Jason: [1:02:28] The Tik Tok made me buy it in cap. [1:02:38] I'm 100% with you social commerce is a thing and it's mostly not about people ordering stuff on Tick Tock it's about people discovering stuff on Tick Tock and then buying it from Sephora. Scot: [1:02:47] I know I was trying to get some partial credit. Jason: [1:02:51] Yeah I like it though all right I think those are great. Scot: [1:02:54] And then in the spirit of my third prediction which was a I will change the world I actually asked chatgpt to make a prediction and it said. Chatgpt: [1:03:04] Based on Trends and current developments in e-commerce it is likely that we will see continued growth and expansion in the industry with an emphasis on mobile Commerce. Personalized shopping experiences and increased use of Technologies such as artificial intelligence and virtual reality. Additionally there may be an increased focus on issues such as sustainability and social responsibility in e-commerce. Scot: [1:03:30] And when it said that I was thought I thought you were punking me I thought you were on the other side of the chat because I was like that's exactly what someone at publicist would say. Someone with a really long title like eight words that's the exact kind of synergistic linguistic word salad that they would they would throw out. Jason: [1:03:52] Yeah there's nothing super tangible in there but it sounds really good That's a classic chatgpt answer. Scot: [1:03:58] So one way my my one prediction could come true as if you're replaced by an AI so I'll just I'm not that's not a prediction is just one way I could cheat my prediction. Jason: [1:04:08] So fun fact is some people know I have a Forbes column and my my most recent Forbes article was about the demise of e-commerce being overhyped. Often I read those articles from scratch myself sometimes I write an outline or a first draft and I send it to a pupusas copywriter and they send me back a first draft and then I edit it and. When I do that I have to do a lot of work because of the copywriters are really talented writers and use proper English and I'm really. Less sophisticated so to put it in my. In my voice I have to change it a lot so this most recent Forbes article I had chatgpt writer and I said write a Forbes article in the voice of Jason Goldberg that has this title and makes these Five Points. Um and so it didn't really do any research for me it didn't like pick any of the answers because I gave it all the answers in my prompt and the data I wanted to support it. It was kind of like I handed it my outline and had it right the first draft in my voice and it was way closer to exactly what I wanted then the ones I get from the copywriter so I probably will never write a first draft from scratch again. Scot: [1:05:25] Does that mean that copywriters going to lose their job. Jason: [1:05:28] No she's gonna move to higher value stuff from now the actual smart people to do some good with proper English. Scot: [1:05:36] Unrelated we going to have a new new podcast host. Jason: [1:05:42] The yeah that we're way over on time but like the the really scary one is these awesome avatars that can make, I can learn your voice and then sound perfectly like your voice are now out in the wild from several companies including Adobe and, and I conveniently have 3:00 of my own voice and your voice on wreck so I think I can make the two of us say anything we. Scot: [1:06:07] Yep I think again. Jason: [1:06:09] Awesome all right well those all seem like good predictions that seems like you have a very viable chance of coming back and getting your nft trophy back for me, I will whip through mine, I suffered greatly because we are recording this late I wrote my predictions of the beginning of the year and I said Party City and Bed Bath and Beyond are going to declare bankruptcy, and unfortunately pretty soon declared bankruptcy yesterday in Bed Bath and Beyond hasn't cleared yet but they've announced publicly that there, they're likely to so I can't really use that prediction but I'm going to say that there are going to be at least two other retail bankruptcies besides Party City in the in the space this year, um you know I think Bed Bath and Beyond is likely to declare bankruptcy but I also think we might see some of the kind of model-based apparel retailers or. There's a few other other retards I have my eye on so I do think we're