Podcast appearances and mentions of john chang

Keith digs into what's really going on with apartments now that values in many markets have dropped 20–40%. You'll hear why larger multifamily properties have been hit so much harder than one-to-four unit rentals, and what that means for both current owners and new buyers. "The Apartment King," Brad Sumrok, joins the conversation to share how recent economic shifts, financing structures, and market forces have reshaped the apartment landscape—and why he believes we may be near a key turning point in the cycle. You'll also learn how investors are approaching deals differently today, what makes certain markets and property types more attractive right now.  Resources: Learn more about Brad here. Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/594 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text  1-937-795-8989 to speak with a freedom coach Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com  Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold  0:01   welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold us. Apartment Building values have fallen 2030, even, 40% over the past few years. Investors lost millions. What are all the reasons that it happened? And when will apartments turn around? I'm joined by the apartment king today on get rich education.   Corey Coates  0:26   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold, writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Keith Weinhold  1:09   the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com you   Corey Coates  1:40   you're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:59   Welcome to GRE from Monterrey, California to Monterrey, Mexico and across 188 nations worldwide. America's favorite shaved mammal on a microphone has got his slack. John, act back on track for another wealth building week with you. I'm Keith Weinhold. This is get rich education, and I'm still not wearing a pair of Dockers. We all know that the one to four unit space single family homes, up to four plexes have held under their values despite soured affordability, but five plus unit apartment buildings are a drastically different story. We're going to talk about just how much value they've lost recently, and the reasons why it's about more than just the interest rates doubling and tripling that began in 2022 Today's guest is an apartment educator. His students have had both losses and wins over time. I'll ask about both, because adversity is where you get the lessons now today, you might buy an apartment building at a steep discount compared to what it sold for five years ago. And who might you buy an apartment from today, it might not be the type of seller that you're thinking about because of owners defaulting you might now be buying it from a bank that had to basically repossess it. Yeah, you might try to buy it from a lender at 60% of the loan amount. Well, a lender doesn't want to do a 40% write down, so they're going to try to get more and see. That's how this could practically look today for an apartment owner that survived the crisis and is still standing today. They're asking themselves, now, why would I sell at a discount if I don't have to? So they're probably going to try to hold on. And then, of course, the tenants in these apartments don't know that any of this is going on now. I own a lot of single family rental homes myself, also apartment buildings in the one to one and a half million dollar range is where I've played, and often that ends up being eight to 12 units, because in that space, I don't need partners to invest in assets of that size. One to $2 million is also small enough so that you're not competing with institutional money and other players. Today, I'll tell you what I did with some of those buildings myself when interest rates reset about four years ago, and before you and I wrap up the show today, I've got something to tell you about what's coming in future. GRE episodes here stuff that's really unexpected as the apartment King waits in the wings. One last thing to tell you about, like I mentioned to you recently, investors say that they want an opportunity, but what they really want is certainty. Once certainty arrives, the opportunity. Is gone.    Keith Weinhold  5:01   Our GRE live event last Thursday was a success. It is about how central Florida is the most compelling housing market right now, with the builder offering rate buy downs as low as 3.75% and, you know, I just ran the numbers on something, and I can hardly believe this. All right, right. Now owner occupied mortgage rates are near 6% this means investment property rates are almost 7% with the rate by down to 4% here's how your cash flow looks with a 30 year fixed rate mortgage on a 300k loan with a 7% rate, your p and i payment is 1996 at a 4% rate. It's just 1432, this is a reduction of $564 per month, a whopping payment difference. That's really the difference between treading water and stacking cash flow on these brand new build properties that we're talking about here in Central Florida. So talking about opportunity and certainty, that is a big measure of both. Yeah, before I ran the numbers, I didn't realize that the spread was this wide. With high demand for these properties, the builder does have some more available, a long term fixed rate of around 4% it should be up for you now you can see the limited time replay of GRE, freshest live event at grewebinars.com, in case you want to look into This again, grewebinars.com let's discuss the apartment market. Foreign apartment building values have fallen at 20% 30% even 40% over the past few years, depending on the market that they're in today, we're going to learn how bad it is, why it happened, and if that actually creates an opportunity here in the late 2020s, decade, our guest is known as the apartment king. He is the number one nationally known educator and mentor for apartment investing. He started with a bang in 2002 by making his first ever real estate investment, not a four Plex like I did, but a 32 unit apartment building, and he's now owned and invested in over 11,000 units and over 1 billion in assets under management. He's received awards like the naa independent owner of the year, and he's the star of the massively popular in person events that he puts on, which you'll learn about soon. Hey, it's been several years. Welcome back to the show. Brad sumrock,   Brad Sumrok  7:46   hey, Keith. It's really good to be on again. Nice to be here.   Keith Weinhold  7:50   Brad and I were together in person last month, and we also talked physical fitness. Then Brad is one of the fittest guys you'll ever meet in person. He just looks fantastic. We want to hear about your apartment forecast shortly. Brad, let's talk about the hard stuff. First, you've endured adversity since we last had you here several years ago. Tell us about that.   Brad Sumrok  8:14    Well, look, I mean, I think anyone that's been serious about investing in apartments over the last five years. And I'll also say it this way, anyone who did a deal and say 21 the middle of 21 till probably the end of 2022 it's very likely that that property is worth less today than than it was when we bought it. So that, in itself, has created, you know, adversity, because I got into the business in 2002 and the market went up until 2008 and we went through a downturn in 2008 nine and 10, as is, I'm sure you're aware. And then the market went up again until around 2021, mid year. And then, due to so many reasons, and I could go into those reasons, but let me just just cut to the chase. That you alluded to is we had another downturn, and so the downturn, you know, impacts property values, it impacts confidence, it impacts investor appetite to do deals. It impacts just about everything related to the business, on the investment side, and the other business that I'm in, which is the seminars, the events and the mentoring. So it's been a big downturn, and we could go into those, you know, into the reasons why, and I'm sure you'd like to know my take on that. But now is a great time, because things are recovering, and one of the things Tony Robbins teaches Keith is pattern recognition. It's like I've been through two downturns, and I could see the patterns, and it occurs to me that we're at or near the bottom of a cycle. So like it's also a good time to be gearing up.   Keith Weinhold  9:50   Now, many realize but for those uninitiated on this, the one to four unit space really didn't feel much pain starting in 2022 so much of that is time. Two people get long term fixed interest rate debt on the one to four unit property, but it's shorter term debt on five plus unit apartment buildings. So when interest rates went up, people soon had to pay those higher rates. They were underwater. That's really the genesis of so much of the apartment building pain.   Brad Sumrok  10:19   Well, and I would say, look, it was, I'm going to throw a bunch of things at you here. So we had the pandemic, right? And during the pandemic, people got paid to stay home from work, right? The government printed, what, $5 trillion worth of money, right? And so that kicked off what became a period of, like, very high inflation. And you know, the published number was 9% but I think a lot of people experience certain items that were a lot more than 9% like, for example, for sure, in 2022 when we bought a 286 unit property, you know, we were able to replace all the appliances inside of a unit in The kitchen, you know, for $1,800 and even today it's like $3,200 so that's a little bit more than 9% and so we had that. So we had the printing of money, we had inflation, we had variable rate debt. Why did people do variable rate debt? The first thing I'll say is there is a place for variable rate debt. But what happened in 2021 and 2022 is the fixed rate lenders, which are typically the government sponsored agencies Fannie and Freddie. They were still lending money, but because of their criteria for lending, if you would go with one of those loans, you would get like 50% leverage the shorter term lenders that would give you the three year loans, you can still get like 75 to 80% leverage. So the vast amount of people that were buying anything in 2021 and 2022 I mean, I'm not just talking about myself. I'm talking about people with 2030, 4050, 70,000 doors all over the country, they were buying with short term debt. And historically, short term debt performs at or better than long term debt. I mean, think about it, when you get a long term, 10 year fixed rate loan and multifamily you have prepayment penalties. You know, when the market's constantly going up like it did, from 2012 to 2022 you could get that fixed term loan. You could pay it off early, you could pay the seven figure prepayment penalty, and you could still make lots and lots of money, and that's what people were doing. So when you bake in the prepayment penalties on long term debt, you know short term debt is oftentimes the better option. Well, nobody saw the Fed raising rate 16 times in 12 months. And look, I don't care what anybody says, Nobody predicted it. If they had predicted it, they would be probably the richest person in the world right now, right nobody saw a comment like, there may have been some people that said, hey, yeah, this is going to happen, or this is going to happen. But what actually happened with the Fed rates over a very short period of time was unprecedented. Unprecedented means it never happened before. So it's not something you could anticipate or something anyone can model. Okay? And so what that did is most of us had what's called an interest rate cap, which is an insurance policy that if the rates go up too much, that yours is capped. But the problem with those rate caps is they're only good for like, two years, right? So we're buying these deals in 2021 and we're getting short term debt, which is a three year debt. And in two years, in 2023 the rate cap expires, and now the rates are 9% instead of 3% and when we bought the deal, the rate cap insurance was $40,000 and now it's a million dollars. And so you're in a very awkward, unfriendly financial situation. And it wasn't just that. So it wasn't just inflation, it wasn't just interest rates. And many of us sung belt markets, specifically Texas and Florida, which historically have been some of the best markets to invest in, because of migration and no taxes, and then landlord and business friendly environments. Well, these states also suffered a lot of named storms, with, you know, hurricanes and wind storms and hail storms and so in these markets, at the same time, we had rising rates. At the same time, we had massive inflation. Now we also have insurance rates doubling or even tripling in some occasions. And then the final thing was, during the pandemic, a lot of the multifamily projects that were in the middle of being built, these development projects, they all slowed down. People couldn't work. And so back in 2020, or after we're fully recovered from the pandemic, some of these markets, like Nashville and Austin and Dallas and Houston and Phoenix, they got deluged Keith with new supply coming on, like a disproportionate amount of new supply. So there's like five. Five things that contributed to multifamily being really tough in the last few years. And so it wasn't just people with short term debt that had challenges. It was probably just about anybody that bought a deal within an 18 month timeframe that I outlined before that just really experienced challenges, and some of those people are still in deals, right? And so let's just take a deal that's, you know, a $10 million deal with a $7 million loan. Well, that deal right now might be only worth 7 million, yeah, and that's the opportunity. So the owner that has that deal may get punched in the face, so to speak, you know, by the market, and they may lose their equity in that deal, but the borrower coming in, or the buyer coming in, like one of my mentees right now, had a deal that was listed at 11 million, and he's picking it up for seven, which is, like, at or below the current loan value. So one buyer group's loss is the new buyer group's opportunity, if that makes sense   Keith Weinhold  16:03    right? 100% there's nothing unusual at all about the mortgage rate levels that began to go higher about four years ago. The unusual part, and Brad has touched on it, is the rate of increase, with mortgage rates doubling or tripling in a short period of time, within about a year or so, but yeah, it's a great point. It's about more than the mortgage rates. It's about increasing insurance costs and increasing expenses of all types, like you talked about with the appliances there, and then, even if you were able to weather all that as an apartment building owner, with all of the supply coming on to the market, when supply exceeds demand, we know what happens to price, and we also know that you can't raise rents very much with all of this supply coming on the market, but the supply of new apartment buildings, that inflow, that wave, is beginning to die down, because builders got the memo quite a while ago that they need to stop building at such a fast pace in places like Florida and Texas and you know, Brad, there are a lot of asset classes that have been beaten up lately. We can always point to a few. You can look at Bitcoin or nfts or even commercial office space. Now those assets might bounce back, but they don't have to, because no human needs those things. But I expect apartments to bounce back because having a place to live is a primordial Maslow and human need. It's almost inevitable. In fact, shelter is at the base of Maslow's hierarchy of needs. So a bounce back has almost got to happen. Yeah.   Brad Sumrok  17:46   Look, it's becoming the big word right now in politics. Right is affordability. And so when you look at affordability, if you take a median priced home in this country of say, $400,000 I don't know if that's the actual median, but maybe it's around 400 420,000 100, $420,000 yes, to buy that home. And who's going to buy a $420,000 home? It's going to be a working class family making 60 to 70,000 a year, right? They could rent a median priced apartment unit for $1,800 a month, or they could pay a 20% or a 10% down payment on a $400,000 homes, and they need 40 to 80,000 down right, or maybe less, but they still need a down payment and that p i, t i, the principal, interest, tax and insurance is going to be around $3,100 okay, so there's a $1,300 per month gap, and that's a big, big gap for that working class family. And so where are they going to live? Like we're becoming more and more of a renter nation? Keith, and the statistics that I read say that only 27% of American families can even qualify to get a mortgage, yeah, on a $400,000 home. So we're becoming more and more and more of a nation of renters by necessity. And so the demographics like look, all markets are not equal. You got to know what's going on in your market. But there are markets, ie locations, geographies that have even a higher affordability gap. You know, some markets have a 2000 a month or a $2,500 a month affordability gap. So you're going to find more and more people renting in these markets.   Keith Weinhold  19:37   Yes, there is a premium to ownership opening up that gap, and that's why we have this wave of renters that's really already begun. In about the last year, the American homeownership rate has fallen from 66% to 65% 1% doesn't sound like much, but that already means that we have 1.3 million new renters. We're going to talk to Brad some more, including about. His apartment market forecast you're listening to get rich education. Our guest is apartment King. Brad sumrock, more when we come back, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold,    Keith Weinhold  20:09   flock homes helps you retire from real estate and landlording, whether it's one problem property or your whole portfolio through a 721 exchange, deferring your capital gains tax and depreciation recapture. It's a strategy long used by the ultra wealthy. Now Mom and Pop landlords can 721, the residential real estate request your initial valuation, see if your properties qualify@flockhomes.com slash GRE. That's f, l, O, C, K, homes.com/gre,   Keith Weinhold  20:45   you know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth. Every single year, I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why? Fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program when you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products. They've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest. Start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom family investments.com/gre, or send a text. Now it's 1-937-795-8989, yep. Text their freedom. Coach, directly. Again. 1-937-795-8989,   Hal Elrod  21:58   this is Hal Elrod, author of The Miracle Morning, and listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  22:13   Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. We're talking about a sector we have not talked about very much lately because it's been in rather moribund condition, but we are beginning to turn the corner where there are more opportunities in apartment building investing, because it's been beaten down an awful lot. And Brad, that plays right in to your apartment forecast. So tell us about some of the highlights of your apartment forecast.   Brad Sumrok  22:38   Yeah, sure. And one of the things that I want to share with you, Keith, is that, you know, back in the peak of the market, the market peaked, say, at the end of 21 early 22 there were so many investors that were in multifamily or that wanted to be in multifamily. And the other thing that caused this so called, you know, downturn that I didn't mention before is, let's take this $10 million deal. If a property was listed at $10 million you'd literally have 30 to 40 buyer groups pursuing that deal, bidding up the price. Yeah. And so a $10 million Listing would sell for 11 and a half million Okay, now what I'm seeing is that same $10 million deal might sell for a seven to 8 million and you might be the only buyer going after the deal. Wow. And how do I know? Because you said, like, I run a an investor community and and I have active multifamily buyers, and I coach them, and I look at their deals, and this is what's happening. And the other reason I know is I sold two of my deals personally in 2025 and both of the deals that I sold, I bought in 2015 where we had 10 year fixed rate debt. So we didn't sell because we had a three year loan. We needed to sell because we had a 10 year loan due. And look, first thing I'll say is I made money, because over that 10 year period, values did go up. They peaked in 2022 and they came back down that because I bought it so long ago. That's the one lesson that I think people also want to understand, is over the long term, the values always tend to go up, but there are short term ups and downs that one would need to be aware of. But when I sold these two deals like I didn't have many buyers one deal in particular. I mean, I had eight buyers going after the deal, but only one was anywhere close to what I wanted. So I was negotiating with myself, you know, telling the buyer and his broker, hey, you know the other guys are here, and you got to come up on price and you got to come up on terms. But truthfully, I was bluffing, because I didn't have anybody that was coming up on price or coming up on terms. And so part of why I'm answering this way is when you look at the forecast, one thing that that I want people to know is that those. Of us that are in the business now and that have our pencils up, and we're underwriting deals, and we're making offers, like I used to teach Keith, don't make lowball offers, because you'll develop a reputation of being that guy or that borrower or that buyer that submits lowball offers, right? And word will get around in that market? Well, right now, like low ball offers are expected, and I would encourage people, let's just say you make an offer that whatever the deal pencils out to. So if you know how to underwrite deals correctly, and they're offering 10 million as a listing price, and you're coming up at seven or 7.5 don't be bashful to make the offer, and you may be the only buyer in the game. So that's one thing is like the competition that I'm seeing right now on the buyer side is not a lot of competition, and that's definitely shifted to a buyer's market. So people need to know that. The other thing I would say, on the macro level, is there's still a lot of uncertainty out there, and the uncertainty is kind of becoming like what I would call a new normal. You know? I'll speak for myself. When Trump was elected and at the end of 2024 I thought it was going to be amazingly well for all of us real estate investors, right? And there are some things that have been like the big, beautiful bill that restores 100% bonus depreciation like this is a really good thing, but you know, the tariffs, the immigration policies, some of the things that he's doing, you know, they have mixed impact for us and our in the economy and in real estate and in multifamily. And the thing is, when he first started doing that again, like lenders, they didn't know how to price debt, like, what's going to happen with tariffs, what's going to happen with ice what's going to happen with immigration, you know? But now that we're a year in to his second term, I can tell you a couple things. Debt is back. Lenders are lending. They're confident. Lenders are issuing debt like you can get 70 to 75% of your acquisition funded by a commercial lender. The government agencies are lending. Freddie Mac is lending. Fannie Mae is lending, and they have a mandate to lend 20% more money in 2026 than they did in 2025 so that bodes well for people that want to get, you know, affordable workforce housing, which is my specialty, also known as Class B and Class C housing. So the lenders are lending like, there's a lot of debt out there. One of the challenges is the equity. There's a lot of institutional equity. But if you're going to the retail investor who got into the business three to five years ago. They don't want to hear about your next deal right now, they're wondering about, hey, what about the deals that I'm in? Right? So one of the things that I'm doing, Keith is, and I think, you know, this is like, you know, I build up a huge investor community from 2012 to 2022 and I did it by traveling the country, speaking at conferences, sponsoring trade shows, talking about the benefits of investing in apartment buildings, how it changed my life, how it enabled me to retire from a six figure income in just three years, and how I've helped many, many other people Do the same, and also just sharing experience today, every asset class, every 10 to 15 years is going to go through a correction. And so where we're at now. And I wasn't the only one on the forecast. I brought in John Chang who is the senior intelligence officer at Marcus and millichep, one of the biggest commercial real estate firms in the country, and he presented about 20 or 30 slides that by and large were very bullish on where we're at in the market cycle. Why now is a great time to be looking at apartment buildings, a lot of the same things that I've been talking about. Prices are down. It's a buyer's market. We have a huge affordability issue. More and more people are becoming renters, and so what I'm committed to do, Keith and I don't know if I shared with you my travel schedule, like when we met each other last month, but I'm on the road every single week going to another city, talking about where I see us right now in the market, and why people should be looking at deals and making offers right now. Because to me, you know, Warren Buffett said it best. He's like, you want to be fearful when everybody else is being greedy, and you want to be greedy when everybody's being fearful. And right now, people are on the sidelines. They're waiting for some green light, like for the Wall Street Journal to come out and say, Hey, now's a good time, you know? I mean, look, Trump, just the point of the new Fed chair, right? And so we know interest rates are going to go down like that's one of his goals, and the guy that he appointed is going to lower rates. So we're looking at a future, a very near future, where we have lower rates, and lower rates is going to create more demand, again, for people that want to buy. I invest in apartments now, look, if you wait another year, I still think it's going to be a good time, but I think we have a better time right now.   Keith Weinhold  30:10   I sold one apartment building in 2022 for about $1 million and I sold another one of my apartment buildings in 2023 for about $1 million I had bought those in 2013 with 10 year balloon loans, so I was enjoying that nice fixed rate as late and as long as I could, until 2022, nine years and 2023, 10 years before the rate went up on me. But of course, my new buyer had to pay that rate, so it limited the amount that they could offer for it. However, to your point about investing for a long time horizon, I still had profits on those nine and 10 year holds, but yeah, to your point, Brad about the looser lending, this is huge. I read a summary of the latest national Multifamily Housing Council meeting, and one of the biggest takeaways that came out of that meeting is that there is abundant debt available. It's in increasingly attractive terms. And a lot of people think about mortgages, and they just think about the rates, and you should that's certainly important, but they don't think as much about the propensity for others to lend. How loose, or how tight are those standards? They're loose, yeah.   Brad Sumrok  31:25   And, I mean, look, the first deal I did in 2002 the interest rate was 6.35% the rates right now are less than that, you know, as of the date of this recording. So, you know, I always talk about a base case of a $10 million deal. It may seem large to you or to people listening, but like in my world of syndication, where we're not just looking at the real estate piece, but learning how to raise money to buy real estate so we could have a bigger property that's professionally managed and become a true business owner like Robert Kiyosaki talks about, do you want to be self employed? I tell my students, buy a six Plex. Do you want to own an apartment business by 60 units and hire a management company? So when I'm talking about this $10 million deal, you know, you can get a $7 million loan right now for probably in the mid 5% and it would be non recourse, and you could probably get three years of interest only, meaning for the first three years, you're going to have a higher cash flow. So like, this is a really good loan compared to 2021 when we could get 3% debt. It's not but remember that 3% loan was a short term loan. You know, it wasn't a 10 year fixed rate loan, it was a short term loan, and we all saw what happened with that when they raised rates so many times in such a short period. So the fixed rate debt is very competitive based on, like, the long term, 20 year average, and it's lower than it was when I started.   Keith Weinhold  32:55   Well, we've been talking about elements of your apartment market forecast, and of course, that's going to inform your Buy Box. Brad, you mentor students constantly and oftentimes we think about a Buy Box. We think about then in terms of geographic market, but as we look for an opportunity, we also might think about some other things in your Buy Box, for example, new build versus vintage build. So with all of this traveling you do, and you're in the markets, and you're informing students, and you're looking at students prospective deals as well. But tell us more about what a good buy box is for the near term in apartment buildings.   Brad Sumrok  33:36   Yeah. So look like what is in the buy box, right? So one is going to be your location. And so, you know, how do I select a good location? Just some tips and strategies around that is, I look for landlord and business friendly environments. In other words, if the tenant doesn't pay, do they get to stay or not, you know, so I like to be in market so that they don't pay, that we could legally, you know, not have them consume our product for a long period of time. So I also look at things like job growth and population growth, affordability gap. New supply is a percentage of inventory, you know, the new supply coming online in a diversified economy. So, like, you want to get your geographies nailed down. Like, where you buy matters, like, there's no substitute to I would rather pay more for a property in a location that meets that criteria than less for a property that doesn't. Yeah. So geography is important. You want to pick your property size, like, how many units, or what's the price point. Okay? And this is huge, because if you're gonna buy your own deal with your own money, which is another reason I prefer syndication. Let's say you have pick a number, 100,000 to invest. Like you can only buy a $300,000 property, two units somewhere, three units somewhere, you know. Or zero units somewhere, right, right? So if you have expanded your you know, your mind and your skill set to do a syndication 100,000 doesn't limit you to your own money, you know. And then I would say, Well, what is a great size for a first time syndicator is I would target somewhere around 60 to 80 units, and at 100,000 a unit, which is a ballpark price for maybe a nice B class property or high C Class property, and a market that meets the criteria that I outlined earlier. You know, you're looking at, say, a six to $8 million property. And so what you could do from there, Keith is, you could say, Okay, well, you know, this is why, like in my educational course, I use a $10 million property, because the numbers are easy. But even just say, Well, I'm going to do an $8 million property, you'd say, Okay, I need two to 3 million down, depending on the debt, right? And then I'm going to get a the balance in a loan, you know, because you could get a 70 to 75% loan. So then you ask, Well, where am I going to get to 2 million, right? If I have 100 I need $1.9 million and so then you got to start thinking about like, do I have access to people or work or in the neighborhood or at the community or at the church, you know, or do I go to masterminds and conferences and meetup groups like, where I saw you Keith last month, like, there's a lot of investors there with a lot of money, right? And some of them are looking to be passive investors. And so, you know, there's a whole nother conversation around, you know, raising capital. And if you can't raise capital, then you may want to bring in some people on your GP team that could help you raise capital, as long as you're following, like the SEC compliance and again, that's another discussion. That's the importance of having the buy box so you have your geography, your property size, your property class. You know, again, if you just want the new construction stuff. There's some people out there, like big name, famous people, that are highlighting their 800 unit a class deals that they're buying. And of course, like you or I that are just getting started, can't go buy that deal. And so why? You know the institutions are going after the large A class properties in the best areas. And so where I've made my niche Keith, and what I would recommend most people start is start with the older vintage properties, start with the 1970s properties, and then maybe work your way up to the 1980s and 1990s properties. And why is this is because the institutions don't want those properties, and they're still able to be professionally managed. Like, if you go and buy 100 unit C Class property, as long as it's not in a bad neighborhood with, like, high crime or whatever like that. Like, these are very honest, hard working, working class people that need a clean, safe and functional place to live, and you'll be able to get better returns on a C or A B class, also known as like the cap rate. And again, that's another discussion, but you'll be able to get a better return on an older vintage property than you would on a vintage property. And you're not competing with the institutions, but you're also not competing with the mom and pops, because the mom and pops are going to take that 100,000 they have and go buy a duplex. You know, they're not going to want to syndicate a deal. They're not going to want to have partners. They're not going to want to deal with the so called complexities of buying a company. And that's what buying an apartment community is, Keith, it's buying a company. You're buying a business that has an income stream already being generated those customers, they're called residents. They're called tenants, you know, but if you just go upstream from buying real estate or buying an apartment building, we're buying a cash flow producing business that's existing, that's in place, and then our job is to figure out how to run it better and more efficiently. You the   Keith Weinhold  39:04   You the listener, you might have access to, say, 500k in equity that's sitting in your existing properties. And some of these numbers that Brad and I are throwing around are rather large, $10 billion but one of the biggest epiphanies that I think your students have is that doesn't need to be much of your own money. We're talking about what's called the capital stack to take down a $10 million apartment building. Maybe you borrow seven and a half million of that. Maybe you raise 2 million of that from your other investors in the syndication, and then you put your 500k into the deal, and there you have $10 million in order to make that purchase. But yes, that does involve a learning curve and the SEC rules and all that. But the big takeaway here is you don't need much of your own money. You can leverage other people's money, even for the down payment. And Brad, you're also an expert at showing people how to pay almost. Zero tax, which is another discussion unto itself, but some of your students start with zero experience, and within a few short years, I mean, you've had hundreds of people that have either retired early or increased their net worth by over a million dollars. A lot of success stories,   Brad Sumrok  40:17   yeah, look, I mean, I started with no previous real estate investing experience. My experience was going to college, studying hard, getting decent grades, becoming an engineer, you know, being fired once, being laid off once, and reading Robert Kiyosaki books that motivated me to to go out and seek specialized education. And I think it was Jim Rohn that said formal education, like degree could get you a job, and specialized education like you can get in a conference or a mastermind or a mentorship program. And that's also how I started. I went to a weekend workshop back in 2001 and I bought the mentorship program. And boy, I'm glad I did, because, you know, that's how I got into my first 62 units. So you don't need to have experience. What you need to have is a powerful reason, a powerful why? Why do I want to be financially free? Like apartments is just a vehicle. I didn't choose apartments because I love departments. I choose departments because they cash flow, they go up in value, and you have amazing depreciation benefits.   Keith Weinhold  41:23   Yeah, I'm the same. I don't love apartments in a way. I don't love real estate. I love what these things do for me    Brad Sumrok  41:30   exactly. Yeah? So, like, you don't have to have experience. In the other category, of people that have come into my community that don't have apartment experience, a lot of them have real estate experience, Keith, that are doing, like, single family homes, short term rentals, or maybe smaller, multi unit deals. And they listen to a show like this, and they're like, huh, I want to transition from doing these smaller types of assets with my own money and self managing to scaling into a syndication.   Keith Weinhold  42:03   Brad has taken countless people from get rich education to got rich education. His core values are faith, finance, fitness, family and fulfillment. He is committed to helping people experience not just financial success, but personal fulfillment, purpose, contribution, freedom and Brad and his investor community have contributed over $1 million to charity. Is really the person you want to learn from if you want to think about going bigger with multifamily apartment buildings. This has been great, Brad. Let our audience know how they can connect with you and learn more?   Brad Sumrok  42:42   Yeah, sure. So I would say this is where I should just be very clear here, okay, but I'm gonna give a couple options, because that's what I'm so of course, there's a website which is my first and last name.com, B, R, A, D, S, U, M, R, O, k, for those of you on social media, I respond to my own social so you'll find me again. B, R, A, D, S, U, M, R, O, K, on LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook.   Keith Weinhold  43:13   Brad, it's been so valuable. It seems like American apartment buildings are in for redemption story here. It's been great having you back on the show.   Keith Weinhold  43:29   Brad and I both emphasize physical fitness, and we chatted about that a good bit when we were together last month. I think he looks better than me. To summarize, the reasons for this historic collapse in apartment building values. It was the combination of soaring interest rates, massive inflation, spiking insurance costs, construction soared, and it created an oversupply, and that oversupply still is not absorbed. In fact, according to the outlet apartment list, the National multifamily vacancy rate recently hit 7.2% that's the highest in the history of the index, which dates back to 2017 and that's chiefly due to apartment oversupply. Have apartments really hit the bottom? Brad just said, we're at or near the bottom, and it's a good time to be gearing up as far as what's coming. To give you an idea of new apartment supply, what takes about two years from construction start to completion. And now you can't just have all US apartment construction come to a complete stop. You have to keep people working. And there are almost 400 MSAs in the United States, so you couldn't coordinate a complete ceasing of construction across every area. So how about the level of new construction starts in apartment units today, and the way that HUD counts it is the number of units started in buildings of five plus units the recent peak. Was about 600,000 annually in 2023 and today it's closer to 400,000 there it is that slowing pace of new apartment construction. If you jump into multifam, be careful of properties with deferred maintenance, because understand that you have a lot of underfunded owners Now Brad can tell you specifically what to look out for his rat race to retirement event is March 28 and 29th in Dallas. It's a two day hands on workshop. You'll learn how to find apartment deals, how to underwrite deals, how to raise capital management and your exit. Discover how you can retire in five years or less by owning apartments again. His website is Brad sumrock.com    Keith Weinhold  45:49   coming up on future episodes here on the get rich education podcast. We're about to go on a run. The next stretch of GRE is loaded. We've got fresh topics with some game changing monolog content that I'm going to share with you new guests, distinguished experts, we're going to break down an innovative way to sell properties that could completely change how you think about your exit strategy of the 50 US states. I'm going to discuss some awful states to invest in, including ones with population loss. On another episode, a distinguished subject matter expert and I are going to dive deep on does America really have a housing shortage, not in apartments which are oversupplied, but is there a shortage in the one to four unit space? That's our topic, because you probably heard contradictory information in the media about whether there's a shortage or not, and then some outlets say there's a housing shortage of 2 million units. Others, 10 million. They're all over the place. We're going to sort it out on an upcoming episode. Does America really have a housing shortage? Then the youngest guest to ever appear on the show will be with us. He's a 19 year old college student that has a real estate investing related major, and since last year, he and I have befriended each other. He was born in about 2006 so it'll be interesting to see how he views the investing world and what they teach him about real estate investing in college today, he is probably the most impressive teenager that I've ever met in my life. Then six weeks from now, we will have an epic get rich education podcast episode 600 on a subject as paradoxical and complete with a GRE contrarianism That builds real wealth, debt is the American dream will be episode 600 if you're serious about building wealth, be sure to follow or subscribe to the show. We are going on a run. If you know someone in your life who needs to think differently. If you know one investor who's still waiting for perfect conditions. This will help them tap the Share button and tell them about the show until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your daydream.   Unknown Speaker  48:14   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  48:42   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get richeducation.com  

Bob and Ben recap the biggest insights from our 2026 Economic Outlook and Macro Forecast presentations, featuring perspectives from Belinda Román, John Chang, and Jay Parsons. They cover GDP growth expectations, potential Fed rate cuts, housing market trends, and real estate investment signals — plus why investor sentiment may matter more than the data in the near term.A fast, data-driven snapshot of the 2026 economy, rates, and real estate outlook.Have more questions, or want more resources like a tax calculator? Go to ⁠⁠⁠https://investlikeabillionaire.org/⁠⁠⁠  to learn more about our community. Check out Ben & Bob's company and invest along at ⁠⁠⁠https://aspenfunds.us/

John Chang unpacks massive downward revisions to U.S. job growth and what they signal for commercial real estate. He explains how nearly 900,000 jobs were wiped out through revisions, why government data models are struggling in a post-pandemic economy, and how policy uncertainty and tariffs are weighing on hiring. John also addresses the recent AI-driven Wall Street selloff in brokerage stocks, arguing that fears of automation disrupting CRE brokerage and office demand are overstated. Throughout, he connects labor trends, wage growth, healthcare hiring, and consumer sentiment directly to property performance across sectors. Book your free demo today at bill.com/bestever and get a $100 Amazon gift card. Visit ⁠www.tribevestisc.com⁠ for more info. Try QUO for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months when you go to quo.com/BESTEVER  Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at⁠ ⁠⁠⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠⁠ Podcast production done by⁠ ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

John Chang breaks down the economic trends set to define 2026 from tepid job growth, declining population growth, and geopolitical uncertainty to the surprising resilience of certain real estate sectors. Discover why AI investments, despite fueling GDP growth, aren't creating jobs, and what that means for commercial real estate demand. Book your free demo today at bill.com/bestever and get a $100 Amazon gift card. Visit ⁠www.tribevestisc.com⁠ for more info. Try QUO for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months when you go to quo.com/BESTEVER  Join us at Best Ever Conference 2026! Find more info at: https://www.besteverconference.com/  Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at⁠ ⁠⁠⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠⁠ Podcast production done by⁠ ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the streets of 1980s Java, a man named John Chang, otherwise known as Dynamo Jack, demonstrated supposed paranormal mastery over energy, chi, and even fire. Was it ancient spiritual discipline or something far stranger?The BOOKBY US A COFFEESubscribe to our PATREONEMAIL us your storiesJoin us on INSTAGRAMJoin us on TWITTERJoin us on FACEBOOKVisit our WEBSITEResearch:https://www.mopaineikung.com/https://www.dingtwist.com/dynamo-jack/Sarah xx"Spacial Winds," Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licenced under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licencehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/SURVEY Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

John Chang interviews Josh Jacobs about why the long-anticipated wave of multifamily distress is finally showing up across select Sun Belt markets. Josh explains how aggressive bridge financing, rising interest rates, slower rent growth, and new supply have converged to force lender-driven sales, receiverships, and recapitalizations—particularly in Gulf Coast states. He breaks down how debt funds, banks, LPs, and preferred equity are navigating defaults, why many sponsors are being wiped out, and what actually happens when lenders step in. The conversation closes with a clear-eyed look at where disciplined investors may find opportunity as pricing resets heading into 2026. Josh JacobsCurrent role: Senior Managing Director, Marcus & MillichapBased in: Birmingham, AlabamaSay hi to them at:  josh.jacobs@marcusmillichap.com | https://www.linkedin.com/in/josh-jacobs-b142461b2/?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=android_app Visit ⁠www.tribevestisc.com⁠ for more info. Try QUO for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months when you go to quo.com/BESTEVER  Join us at Best Ever Conference 2026! Find more info at: https://www.besteverconference.com/  Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at⁠ ⁠⁠⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠⁠ Podcast production done by⁠ ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

John Chang gives listeners a wide-ranging outlook on the 2026 commercial real estate landscape, drawing from recent industry webcasts, capital market data, and his upcoming conversations with investors at NMHC. He explains why rising cap rates and falling borrowing costs have reset real estate returns to some of the most attractive levels seen in over a decade, even as broader economic uncertainty grows. John breaks down how slowing job creation, shifting migration patterns, and heavy Sunbelt development are creating near-term pressure for multifamily—especially Class B and C assets—while lower-development markets continue to show resilience. He also explores why institutional capital is quietly flowing back into commercial real estate, what gold prices may be signaling about investor sentiment, and where he sees risks and opportunities across multifamily, retail, office, industrial, and self-storage heading into 2026. Visit ⁠www.tribevestisc.com⁠ for more info. Try QUO for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months when you go to quo.com/BESTEVER  Join us at Best Ever Conference 2026! Find more info at: https://www.besteverconference.com/  Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at⁠ ⁠⁠⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠⁠ Podcast production done by⁠ ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

John Chang interviews Ben Lapidus, host of the Best Ever Conference, to discuss how commercial real estate investors are repositioning after several challenging years. Ben explains that sentiment has shifted from survival to selective action, with opportunity emerging outside traditional Sun Belt multifamily and into niche strategies like industrial, neighborhood retail, and specialized development plays. They explore why many LPs are consolidating capital with a smaller group of trusted operators, how scale and platform size can now suppress returns, and why unique investment theses are outperforming generic value-add strategies. Ben also shares why his long-term bias favors real estate over equities, emphasizing tangible value, basis plays, and adaptability as markets reset heading into the next cycle. Ben LapidusCurrent role: Host, Best Ever Conference; Commercial Real Estate InvestorBased in: ColoradoSay hi to them at: https://www.besteverconference.com/ Visit ⁠www.tribevestisc.com⁠ for more info. Visit bestevercrypto.com today to get started and earn up to $2,500 in bonus crypto. Try QUO for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months when you go to quo.com/BESTEVER  Join us at Best Ever Conference 2026! Find more info at: https://www.besteverconference.com/  Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at⁠ ⁠⁠⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠⁠ Podcast production done by⁠ ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

John Chang delivers a solo episode breaking down why housing affordability is being widely misunderstood and why institutional investors are not the real problem. He explains how demographic pressure from millennials, elevated mortgage rates, and years of underbuilding have frozen housing inventory and limited entry-level supply. John digs into job growth versus apartment completions across major U.S. metros, showing why rent growth has slowed in some high-growth markets while others remain better positioned heading into 2026. He closes by framing economic uncertainty as both a challenge and an opportunity for long-term real estate investors willing to act with discipline. Visit ⁠www.tribevestisc.com⁠ for more info. Visit bestevercrypto.com today to get started and earn up to $2,500 in bonus crypto. Try QUO for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months when you go to quo.com/BESTEVER  Join us at Best Ever Conference 2026! Find more info at: https://www.besteverconference.com/  Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at⁠ ⁠⁠⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠⁠ Podcast production done by⁠ ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

John Chang shares a deep-dive outlook on the major forces shaping commercial real estate investing in 2026. He explains why job growth is expected to slow significantly, how policy uncertainty and AI-driven productivity are restraining hiring, and what that means for absorption and vacancies across property types. Chang also breaks down interest rate expectations, inflation risks, and why pricing is likely to remain relatively flat despite improving liquidity. He closes with a detailed look at institutional capital returning to the market, where that money is likely to flow, and how private investors can position themselves for stronger relative returns in 2026. Visit bestevercrypto.com today to get started and earn up to $2,500 in bonus crypto. Try QUO for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months when you go to quo.com/BESTEVER Join us at Best Ever Conference 2026! Find more info at: https://www.besteverconference.com/  Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at⁠ ⁠⁠⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠⁠ Podcast production done by⁠ ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

*Previously aired episode* John Chang interviews Joe Fairless, co-founder of Ashcroft Capital, about navigating today's complex commercial real estate landscape. Fairless, who manages over $2.8 billion in assets across 14,000 apartment units, shares insights on finding opportunities amid market distress by cultivating relationships with lenders seeking capable operators for distressed properties. They discuss the record-breaking apartment absorption in late 2023, the decreasing construction pipeline, and how these fundamentals create buying opportunities despite challenging capital raising conditions. Fairless also candidly addresses lessons learned from previous deals and emphasizes the importance of "extreme ownership" when communicating with investors during difficult market periods. Join us at Best Ever Conference 2026! Find more info at: https://www.besteverconference.com/  Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at⁠ ⁠⁠⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠⁠ Podcast production done by⁠ ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

John Chang shares a year-end perspective on where commercial real estate stands after 2025 and what he's watching heading into 2026. He breaks down the sharp slowdown in job creation following tariff uncertainty, rising unemployment among young adults, and how those trends are already impacting household formation, apartment absorption, and overall CRE demand. John also explains why institutional capital is quietly coming back off the sidelines, why retail may be the most resilient sector near-term, and how pent-up demand could drive a powerful rebound once economic clarity returns. Despite near-term choppiness, he makes the case that 2025–2026 entry points could set investors up well for the long-term cycle ahead. Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Visit bestevercrypto.com today to get started and earn up to $2,500 in bonus crypto. Join us at Best Ever Conference 2026! Find more info at: https://www.besteverconference.com/  Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at⁠ ⁠⁠⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠⁠ Podcast production done by⁠ ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

John Chang shares a solo market update from ICSC New York City, outlining what he's hearing from top researchers and brokers across the retail real estate world. He breaks down why uncertainty and slower job growth are stretching decision-making, while consumer debt headlines look less alarming when viewed against income levels, savings/money market balances, and delinquency trends. He also highlights tailwinds from millennials moving into prime earning/spending years and notes retail's leadership in the NCREIF total return index. Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Visit bestevercrypto.com today to get started and earn up to $2,500 in bonus crypto. Join us at Best Ever Conference 2026! Find more info at: https://www.besteverconference.com/  Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at⁠ ⁠⁠⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠⁠ Podcast production done by⁠ ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

John Chang interviews the commercial real estate market itself as he breaks down how healthcare hiring is propping up national job growth while most other sectors soften, and why that makes medical office one of the strongest asset classes going forward. He explains how an aging population and persistent healthcare labor shortages are driving durable demand, limited new supply, stable vacancies around 9%, and long-term leases with built-in rent bumps that support medical office performance. John then shifts to the multifamily outlook, highlighting Sun Belt oversupply and concessions versus tighter conditions in the Midwest and coastal markets, along with delayed household formation among young adults that is creating pent-up demand. He closes by outlining why institutional capital is ramping back into CRE—NACREIF total returns turning positive, higher fund-raising volumes, and rising target allocations—which should lead to more competition for deals and eventual cap rate compression in 2026, assuming policy and geopolitical risks stay contained Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Start earning passive income today at gsprei.com/bestever Alternative Fund IV is closing soon and SMK is giving Best Ever listeners exclusive access to their Founders' Shares, typically offered only to early investors. Visit smkcap.com/bec to learn more and download the full fund summary. Join us at Best Ever Conference 2026! Find more info at: https://www.besteverconference.com/  Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at⁠ ⁠⁠⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠⁠ Podcast production done by⁠ ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

John Chang shares why commercial real estate data has become less reliable following the DOJ's settlement with RealPage, and how losing access to more precise rent and vacancy feeds weakens investor decision-making. He walks through the market's wildly shifting expectations for a potential December 10 Fed rate cut and argues that political pressure and policy uncertainty—not the cost of capital—are what's really slowing hiring and expansion. John then looks at how tariffs, tight immigration policies, and a softer job market could temporarily dampen household formation and apartment absorption in 2026 across apartments, retail, and industrial, while creating pent-up demand that returns later in the cycle. Finally, he explains why investors who can secure positive leverage today—higher cap rates against moderating debt costs—may be better positioned for the next upswing if they buy before sentiment and competition turn. Start earning passive income today at gsprei.com/bestever Alternative Fund IV is closing soon and SMK is giving Best Ever listeners exclusive access to their Founders' Shares, typically offered only to early investors. Visit smkcap.com/bec to learn more and download the full fund summary. Join us at Best Ever Conference 2026! Find more info at: https://www.besteverconference.com/  Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at⁠ ⁠⁠⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠⁠ Podcast production done by⁠ ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

John Chang breaks down the September jobs report, the ripple effects of tariffs, and what current economic uncertainty means for commercial real estate investors. He explains how healthcare employment is propping up national job growth, why stalled hiring across most industries is signaling caution, and how policy unpredictability is weighing on business decisions. John also outlines the markets most resilient to recessionary pressures and highlights why today's cap rate environment may offer strong long-term entry points for CRE investors. Alternative Fund IV is closing soon and SMK is giving Best Ever listeners exclusive access to their Founders' Shares, typically offered only to early investors. Visit smkcap.com/bec to learn more and download the full fund summary. Join us at Best Ever Conference 2026! Find more info at: https://www.besteverconference.com/  Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at⁠ ⁠⁠⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠⁠ Podcast production done by⁠ ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What if a stock market crash actually sparks the next real estate boom? That's exactly what John Chang, Head of Research at Marcus & Millichap, and I dive into on this episode of Cash Flow Connections. In a time of record-high uncertainty, John breaks down: Why multifamily is uniquely positioned for resilience even during a recession How a flight to safety could actually lower cap rates The #1 indicator that capital is about to pour back into real estate The real reason some Sunbelt markets are struggling (and why that's about to change) What rising tariffs, construction slowdowns, and shifting Fed leadership mean for investors If you're trying to time the next market cycle, or wondering when to jump back in, this episode is a must-listen. Take Control, Hunter Thompson Resources mentioned in the episode: John Chang Website LinkedIn Podcast Interested in learning how to take your capital raising game to the next level? Meet us at Capital Raiser's Edge. Learn more here: https://raisingcapital.com/cre

John Chang breaks down the latest economic and market signals after a week of meetings in New York City. He explains how the temporary government funding deal both alleviates short-term pressures and extends broader uncertainty—impacting GDP, consumer spending, and investor sentiment. John also unpacks capital flows, interest-rate volatility tied to upcoming Federal Reserve changes, and why debt availability is improving even as risk factors persist. He contrasts Sun Belt oversupply with strong performance in low-construction markets, and ultimately argues that today's elevated cap rates and stable debt costs may represent a rare “sweet spot” for long-term investors. Alternative Fund IV is closing soon and SMK is giving Best Ever listeners exclusive access to their Founders' Shares, typically offered only to early investors. Visit smkcap.com/bec to learn more and download the full fund summary. Join us at Best Ever Conference 2026! Find more info at: https://www.besteverconference.com/  Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at⁠ ⁠⁠⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠⁠ Podcast production done by⁠ ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

John Chang breaks down the Urban Land Institute and PwC 2026 Emerging Trends report and what it means for commercial real estate investors. He walks through ULI's top ten markets to watch, including Dallas, Miami, Houston, Northern New Jersey, Tampa, and Phoenix, highlighting where overdevelopment, insurance costs, and local policy risks could pressure performance versus where solid job and demographic trends still support growth. John also explores why he favors sectors like seniors housing, medical office, workforce apartments, necessity-based neighborhood retail, and small bay industrial over buzzy data centers, especially given AI's long runway and the heavy power demands of server facilities. He wraps up by explaining why today's combination of compressed lending spreads, elevated cap rates, and a coming construction slowdown could set investors up for strong risk-adjusted returns over the next three to five years if they position carefully now. Alternative Fund IV is closing soon and SMK is giving Best Ever listeners exclusive access to their Founders' Shares, typically offered only to early investors. Visit smkcap.com/bec to learn more and download the full fund summary. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Podcast production done by ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

John Chang analyzes how perception and data often diverge in real estate investing. Drawing from fresh insights after speaking with investors in Dallas, he contrasts Texas Sunbelt markets with the Upper Midwest to reveal surprising five-year trends in rent growth, vacancies, and pricing. John breaks down why overdevelopment has dampened returns in high-growth metros like Austin and Dallas, while steady markets like Chicago and Cincinnati quietly outperformed. He closes by encouraging investors to look beyond the headlines, challenge herd mentality, and explore under-the-radar markets where fundamentals—not hype—drive performance. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Podcast production done by ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this week's episode of The Horizon Podcast, John Chang explores whether the U.S. economy is heading toward a mild recession, a period of slow growth, or a stronger-than-expected expansion in 2026. Drawing on conversations with top investors, economists, and market data, John weighs the indicators pointing both ways—such as unemployment, inflation, consumer sentiment, and the yield curve—and examines how the stock market's performance has been propping up overall growth. He also breaks down key commercial real estate insights, from updated absorption and vacancy rates to rising cap rate opportunities, and shares why now may be the window for institutional capital to reenter the market. The episode concludes with John's measured optimism about CRE's long-term performance despite near-term volatility. Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Podcast production done by ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this week's episode of The Horizon Podcast, John Chang shares insights from his recent presentations and meetings with top investors across the country. He covers economic trends, inflation expectations, and the outlook for interest rates, noting general optimism and stability ahead. John dives into the state of key commercial real estate sectors—including industrial, office, multifamily, retail, and self-storage—highlighting where investors are seeing opportunity and where caution is warranted. He closes by explaining why he believes commercial real estate will outperform other investment classes over the next several years and why now may be the time to stay active in the market. Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Podcast production done by ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this week's episode of The Horizon Podcast, John Chang explores how artificial intelligence is beginning to reshape commercial real estate investing. After meeting with top institutional investors, John dives into how firms are using AI to identify high-performing trade areas, prune underperforming assets, and accelerate decision-making. He examines the strengths and pitfalls of data quality, from census and CoStar metrics to migration tracking through Placer AI, and discusses how automation could fundamentally transform investment strategy by filtering deals with higher accuracy and efficiency. John closes by connecting this evolution to his core theme—anticipating where the market will be five to ten years down the road. This is a limited time offer, so head over to aspenfunds.us/bestever to download the investor deck—or grab their quick-start guide if you're brand new to oil and gas investing. Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Podcast production done by ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this week's episode of The Horizon, John Chang unpacks how shifting government policies around tariffs, immigration, and a potential shutdown could shape commercial real estate over the next several years. He explains why rolling tariffs are inflationary rather than transitory, how tighter immigration reduces labor supply and pushes wages higher, and why delayed government data complicates the Fed's rate-cut path. John also maps sector-level ripple effects, from construction and value-add cost pressures to hospitality and retail demand, while noting strong household balance sheets and tactical opportunities for investors who position near policy beneficiaries like domestic steel. He closes with a pragmatic takeaway: uncertainty raises risk, but it also creates investable dislocations for informed operators. This is a limited time offer, so head over to aspenfunds.us/bestever to download the investor deck—or grab their quick-start guide if you're brand new to oil and gas investing. Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Podcast production done by ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this week's episode of Horizon, John Chang unpacks where multifamily demand is heading amid conflicting data and shifting migration trends. He explains how the August employment revisions, slower domestic and international migration, and a still-wide rent-to-own payment gap could cool absorption in the near term, especially across high-construction Sun Belt markets. John contrasts those headwinds with steadier fundamentals in supply-constrained “snow belt” metros, notes the growing importance of lease renewals over new leases, and makes the case that cap rates are stabilizing near equilibrium. He closes with a near-term “slow and steady” outlook and a longer-term rebound thesis for select Sun Belt markets once excess supply burns off. This is a limited time offer, so head over to aspenfunds.us/bestever to download the investor deck—or grab their quick-start guide if you're brand new to oil and gas investing. Visit investwithsunrise.com to learn more about investment opportunities.  Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this week's episode of Horizon Podcast, John Chang breaks down the Fed's latest rate cut, why he thinks it's driven more by confidence and political pressure than liquidity, and what the dot plot implies for the next few years. He explains how lower rates could briefly unjam CRE deal flow, then pivots to retail where inflation-adjusted sales are still rising and household leverage looks manageable relative to income. John also maps out how a mild, tariff- and labor-constraint-driven slowdown could create winners and losers by market, highlighting durability, policy orientation, industry mix, and overdevelopment risk as key filters. He closes with a demographic tailwind for consumption as millennials move deeper into peak earning years. This is a limited time offer, so head over to aspenfunds.us/bestever to download the investor deck—or grab their quick-start guide if you're brand new to oil and gas investing. Visit investwithsunrise.com to learn more about investment opportunities.  Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Podcast production done by ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this week's episode of The Horizon, John discusses why inflation is rising in a slow “trickle,” with food prices leading the gains, and how this feeds into rising odds of Fed rate cuts and a ~4% 10-year treasury. He explains why today's financing window—around 5% for agency multifamily—creates rare positive leverage and is already sparking activity. With construction starts falling and labor/material costs high, John outlines a favorable long-term setup: tighter future supply, elevated cap rates, and improving fundamentals. He also maps the risks (recession, weaker jobs data) and where to focus: Class A/B multifamily, necessity retail, medical office, and storage—while flagging trade-exposed West Coast industrial and some discretionary retail, and noting office as a potential “dark horse” on rising RTO pressure. This is a limited time offer, so head over to aspenfunds.us/bestever to download the investor deck—or grab their quick-start guide if you're brand new to oil and gas investing. Visit investwithsunrise.com to learn more about investment opportunities.  Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this week's episode of Best Ever CRE Show, Matt Faircloth and John Chang are bringing you another fireside chat. They go back and forth on multifamily's next five years, debating rent ceilings versus demand tailwinds, class-by-class dynamics, and why construction tariffs and replacement costs could freeze new supply even as Gen Z household formation builds pressure. John explains how treasury issuance and the 10-year may keep long rates sticky, why office could be a dark-horse recovery play, and how hotels trading below replacement cost create near-term opportunity. They wrap with recession risk, practical stress tests, and when it's smarter to build reserves or sell before the cycle turns. This is a limited time offer, so head over to aspenfunds.us/bestever to download the investor deck—or grab their quick-start guide if you're brand new to oil and gas investing. Visit investwithsunrise.com to learn more about investment opportunities.  Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this week's episode of Horizon Podcast, John Chang breaks down the newest jobs report, why the Fed is poised to cut, and how a sub-4 percent 10-year Treasury creates a short window to lock attractive debt for acquisitions and refis. He explains why policy uncertainty and tariffs could stoke stagflation, then maps the likely impacts by asset class, from steady necessity retail and mixed industrial outlooks to a nascent office recovery fueled by rising return-to-office pressure. John also outlines why supply pipelines are tapering faster than demand in many markets, how absorption could remain positive even through a mild recession, and why real estate may still outperform stocks and bonds if inflation lingers. This is a limited time offer, so head over to aspenfunds.us/bestever to download the investor deck—or grab their quick-start guide if you're brand new to oil and gas investing. Visit investwithsunrise.com to learn more about investment opportunities.  Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this week's episode of Best Ever CRE, John Chang and Matt Faircloth interview each other in a fireside chat style. They unpack the three market drivers John watches most — jobs, demographics and local supply — and why rates matter mainly when the deal hits underwriting rather than for predicting operating performance. Matt explains his pivot toward day-one cash flow, positive leverage and scalability while moving away from C class value add plays. They debate hospitality with Matt favoring flagged limited-service hotels tied to business travel as John flags labor and construction headwinds, then trade war stories on COVID and Lehman that forced forecasts to flip overnight. This is a limited time offer, so head over to aspenfunds.us/bestever to download the investor deck—or grab their quick-start guide if you're brand new to oil and gas investing. Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this episode of The Horizon, John discusses two big themes: a looming seniors housing supply gap and why multifamily still looks durable. He explains that the 80+ population is set to surge while construction lags far behind NIC MAP's estimated needs, pushing occupancies up and rents higher—though labor shortages remain a risk. He then pivots to apartments, noting record absorption, a historically wide cost gap between owning and renting, and a steep drop in new starts—all of which should keep vacancies trending down even if growth cools in a recession. Net-net, he argues CRE—especially seniors housing and multifamily—remains compelling for long-term investors. Visit investwithsunrise.com to learn more about investment opportunities.  Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this episode of The Horizon, John discusses the July retail sales print—strong nominally but essentially flat after inflation—and why consumer capacity to spend (healthier debt-to-income ratios and rising savings) is at odds with willingness to spend as sentiment softens. He explains how tariffs are likely to shift more costs from businesses to consumers in coming months, potentially weighing on Q4 sales and nudging inflation higher. Translating this to CRE, John expects more pressure on West Coast industrial (trade-exposed) while retail vacancies drift up from record lows, with grocery/necessity retail holding steadier than restaurants. Longer-term, he sees structural demand supported by millennial spending power, sizable boomer wealth, and improving transaction activity into late-2025/2026. Visit investwithsunrise.com to learn more about investment opportunities.  Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this episode of The Horizon, John discusses June inflation data, why tariff impacts haven't fully appeared in CPI yet, and how companies signal they'll pass more costs to consumers. He breaks down a weakening labor market, the Fed's dual mandate, and Wall Street's high odds of near‑term rate cuts—while warning that cutting into oncoming tariff-driven inflation could force a policy U‑turn. John explores CRE implications across property types (apartments, retail, industrial, office), the role of the 10‑year Treasury, and how uncertainty—not just rates—is throttling hiring and investment. He closes with a medium‑term outlook: transaction velocity likely rises into 2025–26 as dry powder deploys, with localized cap rate compression despite policy opacity. Visit investwithsunrise.com to learn more about investment opportunities.  Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this episode of The Horizon, John discusses the August 1st jobs report, highlighting major downward revisions that reveal a sharp decline in job creation since April. He analyzes related economic indicators like labor force participation, ISM indices, and inflation trends, all pointing to growing recession risks. John also explores the tension the Federal Reserve faces between rising inflation and weakening employment, casting doubt on the likelihood of rate cuts despite market expectations. Wrapping up, he shares how these economic dynamics could affect commercial real estate—especially apartments, retail, and industrial—over the next 12 months and beyond. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this episode of The Horizon, John discusses second quarter commercial real estate sales trends, with a deep dive into multifamily and retail activity. He explains why transaction velocity—rather than dollar volume—is a more reliable market indicator, especially in a period with large portfolio deals like Blackstone's Air Communities acquisition. John also breaks down cap rate trends using both average and hedonic metrics, noting that while some asset classes show downward cap rate pressure, much of it may stem from deal quality shifts. He wraps with a forward-looking view, expressing optimism for 2025 as a strong entry point for investors, citing steady interest rates, more deal flow, and favorable long-term tax policies. Visit investwithsunrise.com to learn more about investment opportunities. Post your job for free at https://www.linkedin.com/BRE. Terms and conditions apply. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this episode of The Horizon, John Chang interviews John Manning, Executive Managing Director at Marcus & Millichap Capital Corporation, to unpack the current lending environment across commercial real estate. Manning outlines why CMBS lending has surged in 2025, citing borrower acceptance of current interest rates, availability of non-recourse loans, and the appeal of full-term interest-only financing. He compares CMBS to banks, life insurance companies, GSEs, and debt funds, highlighting how each fits into the market and why debt funds are becoming dominant for bridge and construction loans. They also look ahead to the next five years, predicting a recovery in transaction volume and capital flows, especially if proposed legislation allows more retirement money to flow into real estate. John Manning Current role: Executive Managing Director, Marcus & Millichap Capital Corporation Based in: Seattle, Washington Say hi to them at: https://www.marcusmillichap.com/advisors/john-manning Visit investwithsunrise.com to learn more about investment opportunities. Post your job for free at https://www.linkedin.com/BRE. Terms and conditions apply. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this episode of The Horizon, John discusses a potential game-changing executive order from President Trump that could allow U.S. retirement accounts like 401(k)s to invest in private market assets, including commercial real estate. He explores how this influx of capital could significantly reshape cap rates—not because of interest rates, but due to shifts in capital flows. Using historical data, John challenges the commonly held belief that cap rates track closely with interest rates, demonstrating instead that transaction volume and investor demand play a much stronger role. He concludes by urging investors to consider positioning themselves ahead of a possible capital wave that could drive property values higher. Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Post your job for free at https://www.linkedin.com/BRE. Terms and conditions apply. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this episode of The Horizon, John discusses the long-term implications of the newly passed U.S. tax law and its impact on commercial real estate. He highlights the permanence of key provisions like accelerated depreciation, Opportunity Zones, and LIHTC expansions, explaining how they open the door for long-term investment strategies and development models. John also breaks down the potential inflationary effects of tariffs—particularly on construction materials—and how that could influence interest rates and Federal Reserve policy. He closes with insights on job market data, noting mixed signals beneath the headline unemployment rate and suggesting caution ahead. Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Post your job for free at https://www.linkedin.com/BRE. Terms and conditions apply. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this episode of The Horizon, John Chang discusses the current trajectory of interest rates, the outlook on inflation, and the uncertain effects of tariffs and political influence on the Federal Reserve. He explores how treasury issuance and trade policies are shaping rate expectations, especially amid political pressure and global economic shifts. John also evaluates the U.S. job market's softening signals, growing layoffs, and how uncertainty is likely to rise again depending on post-July 9 tariff decisions. He ends by offering a forward-looking perspective on commercial real estate sectors—favoring demographic-driven investments like medical office, multifamily, and self-storage—while noting potential opportunities and risks in office, retail, and industrial assets. Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Post your job for free at https://www.linkedin.com/BRE. Terms and conditions apply. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this episode of The Horizon, John discusses the surprising inefficiencies in commercial real estate investing, specifically focusing on the apartment sector. He unpacks why markets like Chicago—despite strong rent growth and solid fundamentals—have higher cap rates and attract less capital than high-growth but lower-performing markets like Dallas-Fort Worth. John explores how investor behavior, herd mentality, and institutional capital flows influence asset values more than actual property performance. He concludes by highlighting overlooked cashflow markets like Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Milwaukee that offer strong yields in today's high-interest-rate environment. Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Post your job for free at https://www.linkedin.com/BRE. Terms and conditions apply. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this episode of The Horizon, John Chang discusses why commercial real estate is likely to outperform over the next five years. He attributes this to two major Trump-era policies: increased tariffs and tightening immigration. Tariffs on materials like steel, aluminum, and Canadian softwood lumber are significantly raising construction costs, while stricter immigration policies are reducing the labor pool, further driving up labor expenses. These structural pressures are expected to constrain new development, shift supply-demand dynamics, and ultimately push up both rents and property values across sectors including multifamily, retail, office, and industrial. Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Post your job for free at https://www.linkedin.com/BRE. Terms and conditions apply. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this episode of The Horizon, John Chang discusses the delayed impact of new tariffs on inflation and how businesses stockpiling inventory may temporarily mask those effects. He outlines the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rates, noting likely rate stability through Q3, with potential movement in Q4 depending on economic indicators. John also explores how immigration policy and labor shortages—especially in construction and healthcare—pose challenges for commercial real estate. Finally, he unpacks how the proposed tax bill, including accelerated depreciation and expanded deductions, could benefit CRE investors, particularly those pursuing value-add strategies, and why he believes real estate may outperform other assets under a second Trump administration. Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Post your job for free at https://www.linkedin.com/BRE. Terms and conditions apply. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Margin of Error Has Vanished: What CRE Investors Should Be Watching Now Commentary on a conversation with John Chang, Senior Vice President and National Director, Research and Advisory Services, Marcus & Millichap   The New CRE Investment Mandate: Survive First, Then Thrive “The margin of error has narrowed to virtually zero.” This was John Chang's stark assessment of today's commercial real estate environment – an era marked by fragile capital markets, rising Treasury yields, policy instability, and speculative hangovers from a decade of cheap money. According to Chang, the headline playbook hasn't changed: keep leverage low, maintain reserves, underwrite for downside. But the stakes have changed. What used to be prudent is now required. Those who forget that, particularly those lulled by the long post-GFC bull run, risk extinction.   Cap Rates, Treasury Yields, and the Compressed Spread A central theme of our conversation is the vanishing spread between borrowing costs and asset yields. Cap rates have risen 100–200 bps depending on asset class and geography, but Treasury rates have risen more. That's compressed spreads, rendering most acquisitions reliant on a value-creation story or an eventual rate reversal.   Investors are still transacting, says Chang, but only if they believe they can bridge the spread gap through operational improvements i.e. leasing, renovation, management upgrades. Passive cap-rate arbitrage is no longer viable. “The potential for something to go wrong is high,” Chang warns, especially in a policy environment that remains erratic.   The Treasury Market's Imminent Supply Shock Chang outlines why he expects upward pressure on Treasury yields for the balance of the year – contrary to the market's general expectations of rate cuts. Key reasons: Federal Deficits: With a delayed budget, Treasury issuance has been running below historical norms. That's about to reverse, with $1–1.5 trillion in supply expected by October. Shrinking Buyer Base: The Fed is reducing its balance sheet. Foreign holders, especially China and Japan, are net sellers. Even traditional allies are showing less appetite, driven partly by frictions over U.S. trade policy. Trade Tensions: Tariffs of up to 145% on imports from China, EU saber-rattling, and a broad retreat from globalization are alienating the very buyers of U.S. debt. “People don't want to do us any favors right now,” Chang says. “That uncertainty alone elevates risk premiums.”   Normalcy Bias and the Myth of the Perpetual Up Cycle Chang pulls no punches on the market psychology underpinning risky underwriting in recent years. He describes a bifurcated investor landscape: Those who entered post-GFC and think 2–3% interest rates and infinite rent growth are normal. Veterans of the 1990s S&L crisis, the dot-com bust, or the GFC, who know better. What's striking is the lack of long-term data. Even Marcus & Millichap, he notes, only has robust CRE data going back to 2000. Without context, many have mistaken the tailwind-fueled 2010s as a standard baseline.   “We're back to old-world real estate,” Chang says. “Where you have to actually understand the property, the tenant mix, the microeconomics of location. The era of pure financial engineering is over.”   Lessons from the Pandemic and GFC: Underwrite for Downside, Not for Hype Chang recounts closing on an investment in April 2020 at the very onset of pandemic uncertainty. “What if we rent at breakeven?” he asked. If the answer was yes, he proceeded. That conservative approach worked then and still applies today.   The biggest blow-ups, he says, came from sponsors who: Modeled double-digit rent growth. Over-leveraged. Used floating-rate debt without hedges. Ignored capex and reserves. By contrast, Chang praises sponsors who locked in fixed debt, kept leverage under 65%, and stayed humble. “They're embarrassed to be earning 7% IRRs,” he jokes, “but in this climate, that's a win.”   Washout in the Syndication Space: Good Riddance? Perhaps most damning is Chang's commentary on the wave of underqualified syndicators who entered during the boom years.   “Thousands came in with no operating experience,” he says, pointing to the proliferation of coaching programs offering checklists instead of expertise. These new entrants mimicked industry language – AUM figures, fund manager titles – but often had no institutional track record or risk management skills.   Many of them, Chang believes, are now out or on their way out. And while some may return with hard-earned wisdom, he expects the flow of “tourists” into the syndication world to dry up for the foreseeable future.   Tailwinds Still Exist: But Only for the Well-Prepared Despite the short-term risks, Chang sees multiple long-term tailwinds: Demographics: Millennials are delaying homeownership, renting into their 40s and fueling demand for multifamily. Inflation Resistance: Assets like multifamily, self-storage, and even select retail have pricing power in inflationary environments. Constrained Supply: Rising costs (e.g., lumber, steel tariffs) are slowing new construction, which will support existing asset values over time. He also flags tax policy as a positive surprise: The “BBB” tax bill, now working its way through the House, offers accelerated depreciation and expansion of Opportunity Zones particularly in rural areas. This could buoy returns in an otherwise challenging environment.   On the Aging of America: A Selective Case for Healthcare-Adjacent Assets Chang views medical office and senior housing through a bifurcated lens: Medical office: Attractive if tenants are stable, young, or anchored by heavy equipment. Long leases. Minimal turnover. Durable income. Assisted living: Demographic tailwinds are real, but operators matter more than ever. The Achilles heel? Labor. “About 30% of healthcare workers in the U.S. are foreign-born,” he warns. “And immigration policy, especially under restrictive regimes, will constrain the labor supply.” No staff, no NOI.   Final Signals: What He's Watching Closely If you want to forecast CRE performance, Chang suggests watching: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: A leading indicator of retail sales and housing trends. Currently falling. Inflation-adjusted Retail Sales: Shows how real consumption is holding up. Trade Policy & Supreme Court Rulings: The potential invalidation of Trump-era tariffs could reset inflation and Treasury outlooks but introduces a new kind of uncertainty. “We're not facing one black swan,” he concludes. “We're facing a whole flock. Pick your bird.”   Bottom Line This is not a time for heroic assumptions. It's a time for competence, humility, and discipline. If you must deploy capital, do so with sponsors who have been through a major downturn GFC style, and focus on those who didn't make capital calls, who still generate yield, and who underwrite to reality, not to hope.   The next 2–3 years may be rocky. But the long term still belongs to those who survive the short term.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

On this episode of The Horizon, John Chang interviews Marcelo Margain, managing partner at Eagle Property Capital (EPC), to explore how Mexican capital is fueling U.S. multifamily investments. Marcelo shares how EPC sources 85% of its capital from Mexico, leveraging investor interest in dollar-denominated assets and U.S. economic stability. He emphasizes the value of EPC's conservative investment strategy, fixed-rate financing, and their in-house management platform, which drives tenant satisfaction and high retention rates. Marcelo also highlights the firm's unique community-focused value-add approach and discusses their upcoming $300M Fund VI, targeting Sunbelt markets like Dallas, Houston, Orlando, and Tampa. Marcelo Margain Current role: Managing Partner at Eagle Property Capital Based in: Mexico Say hi to them at: LinkedIn profile or eaglepropertycapital.com Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Post your job for free at https://www.linkedin.com/BRE. Terms and conditions apply. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this episode of The Horizon, John Chang interviews Gregg Katz to unpack the ripple effects of tariffs, the paralysis caused by economic uncertainty, and shifts in consumer behavior. The two dive into how fluctuating tariffs on Chinese goods are impacting retailers differently—especially discount chains like Five Below and Dollar General—and explore how supply chain volatility is reshaping strategic decisions in real estate and retail. They also discuss the experiential shift in retail environments, highlighted by a tour of One Wall Street and its luxury French department store, and forecast a potential "back to basics" retail resurgence driven by Gen Z's unexpected preference for in-person shopping. Ultimately, both agree that despite short-term turbulence, retail real estate remains resilient and ripe with long-term opportunity. Greg Katz Director, Business Industry Solutions Based in: Atlanta, Georgia Say hi to them at https://www.linkedin.com/in/gregg-katz/ vikingcapllc.com Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at www.bestevercommunity.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this episode of The Horizon, John Chang interviews economist John Silvia to discuss economic uncertainty, inflation risks, and their implications for real estate investors. Silvia highlights concerning trends, including slowing consumer spending, falling consumer sentiment, and the potential for a negative GDP print in the first quarter. He also analyzes the impact of new tariffs, which could raise inflation and weaken economic growth, leading to a higher risk of recession. The discussion turns to the Federal Reserve's response, with Silvia predicting potential rate cuts despite inflation pressures. The episode closes with a look at investment opportunities in commercial real estate and a cautiously optimistic outlook for the next three years. Sponsors: Capital Gains Tax Solutions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this episode of The Horizon, John discusses the origins of his signature phrase “keep your eyes on the horizon” and uses commercial real estate data to show the importance of long-term thinking in uncertain times. Reflecting on the five years since the COVID-19 outbreak, John breaks down the performance of office, retail, industrial, and apartment sectors, highlighting which property types have thrived and which have struggled. He emphasizes that despite current economic uncertainty—driven by tariffs, immigration policies, and inflation risks—demographics and market fundamentals point to strong future demand. John urges investors to look past short-term turbulence and focus on long-term opportunity. Sponsors: Vintage Capital Capital Gains Tax Solutions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this episode of The Horizon, John Chang of Marcus & Millichap and Ben Leybovich discuss how recent economic shifts are creating unique investment opportunities in commercial real estate. They analyze how stock market volatility and new tariff policies are alienating international investors while prompting wealthy Americans to seek alternative investment vehicles. John shares insights from institutional players who are beginning to deploy capital into multifamily properties despite negative leverage, betting on future rent growth rather than immediate interest rate cuts. The conversation highlights why periods of elevated cap rates have historically proven to be excellent entry points for investors, and why commercial real estate remains attractive in uncertain times. Ben also discusses his innovative garage condo development project that's already 60% pre-sold, demonstrating how targeting affluent consumers with specialized real estate products can yield substantial returns even in challenging economic climates. Sponsors: Vintage Capital Capital Gains Tax Solutions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this episode of The Horizon, John Chang interviews Ash Patel from the Best Ever Conference 2026. They talk about his contrarian investment approach focusing on retail, office, and medical properties while avoiding residential tenants. Ash shares insights on why he prefers commercial tenants who treat properties professionally, explains how suburban office spaces in walkable areas are outperforming urban core locations, and reveals strategies for finding value-add retail opportunities with limited competition. The conversation explores recent market trends showing increased office absorption nationally, the surprising demand from national retail tenants actively seeking space, and why medical office remains a reliable investment with strong tenant stability. Ash also offers practical advice on evaluating markets, avoiding overhyped locations, and why buying properties at significant discounts in challenging asset classes can lead to substantial long-term returns despite current economic headwinds. Sponsors: Vintage Capital Capital Gains Tax Solutions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this episode of The Horizon, host John Chang shares key insights from his recent workshop at the Best Ever Conference about critical market trends impacting real estate investment in 2025. Chang analyzes how the new Trump administration's potential policies on tariffs and immigration could impact economic growth, construction costs, and labor markets. He explains why multifamily fundamentals are strengthening as construction pipelines drop dramatically (with starts down 75% from peak) while demographic demand drivers remain strong. Drawing parallels to previous market cycles, Chang notes that the current cap rate expansion represents only the fourth significant instance since 1992, and historically, investments made during these periods have delivered superior returns. The episode provides a comprehensive outlook for commercial real estate investors navigating political uncertainty while positioning for long-term growth. Sponsors: Vintage Capital Capital Gains Tax Solutions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices