Podcast appearances and mentions of john chang

  • 29PODCASTS
  • 102EPISODES
  • 38mAVG DURATION
  • 1WEEKLY EPISODE
  • Nov 9, 2025LATEST

POPULARITY

20172018201920202021202220232024


Best podcasts about john chang

Latest podcast episodes about john chang

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 4084: Data Centers, AI Disruption and The Case For Small Bay Industrial with John Chang

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 9, 2025 37:14


John Chang breaks down the Urban Land Institute and PwC 2026 Emerging Trends report and what it means for commercial real estate investors. He walks through ULI's top ten markets to watch, including Dallas, Miami, Houston, Northern New Jersey, Tampa, and Phoenix, highlighting where overdevelopment, insurance costs, and local policy risks could pressure performance versus where solid job and demographic trends still support growth. John also explores why he favors sectors like seniors housing, medical office, workforce apartments, necessity-based neighborhood retail, and small bay industrial over buzzy data centers, especially given AI's long runway and the heavy power demands of server facilities. He wraps up by explaining why today's combination of compressed lending spreads, elevated cap rates, and a coming construction slowdown could set investors up for strong risk-adjusted returns over the next three to five years if they position carefully now. Alternative Fund IV is closing soon and SMK is giving Best Ever listeners exclusive access to their Founders' Shares, typically offered only to early investors. Visit smkcap.com/bec to learn more and download the full fund summary. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Podcast production done by ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 4077: Rent Growth, Reality Checks and Regional Myths

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 2, 2025 34:24


John Chang analyzes how perception and data often diverge in real estate investing. Drawing from fresh insights after speaking with investors in Dallas, he contrasts Texas Sunbelt markets with the Upper Midwest to reveal surprising five-year trends in rent growth, vacancies, and pricing. John breaks down why overdevelopment has dampened returns in high-growth metros like Austin and Dallas, while steady markets like Chicago and Cincinnati quietly outperformed. He closes by encouraging investors to look beyond the headlines, challenge herd mentality, and explore under-the-radar markets where fundamentals—not hype—drive performance. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Podcast production done by ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 4070: Recession Risks, Market Signals and CRE Outlook with John Chang

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 26, 2025 35:52


On this week's episode of The Horizon Podcast, John Chang explores whether the U.S. economy is heading toward a mild recession, a period of slow growth, or a stronger-than-expected expansion in 2026. Drawing on conversations with top investors, economists, and market data, John weighs the indicators pointing both ways—such as unemployment, inflation, consumer sentiment, and the yield curve—and examines how the stock market's performance has been propping up overall growth. He also breaks down key commercial real estate insights, from updated absorption and vacancy rates to rising cap rate opportunities, and shares why now may be the window for institutional capital to reenter the market. The episode concludes with John's measured optimism about CRE's long-term performance despite near-term volatility. Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Podcast production done by ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 4063: Market Stability, Investor Sentiment and Growth Ahead ft. John Chang

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 19, 2025 35:06


On this week's episode of The Horizon Podcast, John Chang shares insights from his recent presentations and meetings with top investors across the country. He covers economic trends, inflation expectations, and the outlook for interest rates, noting general optimism and stability ahead. John dives into the state of key commercial real estate sectors—including industrial, office, multifamily, retail, and self-storage—highlighting where investors are seeing opportunity and where caution is warranted. He closes by explaining why he believes commercial real estate will outperform other investment classes over the next several years and why now may be the time to stay active in the market. Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Podcast production done by ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 4056: AI Integration, Data Quality and Smarter Investing with John Chang

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 12, 2025 31:23


On this week's episode of The Horizon Podcast, John Chang explores how artificial intelligence is beginning to reshape commercial real estate investing. After meeting with top institutional investors, John dives into how firms are using AI to identify high-performing trade areas, prune underperforming assets, and accelerate decision-making. He examines the strengths and pitfalls of data quality, from census and CoStar metrics to migration tracking through Placer AI, and discusses how automation could fundamentally transform investment strategy by filtering deals with higher accuracy and efficiency. John closes by connecting this evolution to his core theme—anticipating where the market will be five to ten years down the road. This is a limited time offer, so head over to aspenfunds.us/bestever to download the investor deck—or grab their quick-start guide if you're brand new to oil and gas investing. Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Podcast production done by ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 4049: Construction Costs, Sector Shifts and Stagflation Odds ft. John Chang

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 5, 2025 38:08


On this week's episode of The Horizon, John Chang unpacks how shifting government policies around tariffs, immigration, and a potential shutdown could shape commercial real estate over the next several years. He explains why rolling tariffs are inflationary rather than transitory, how tighter immigration reduces labor supply and pushes wages higher, and why delayed government data complicates the Fed's rate-cut path. John also maps sector-level ripple effects, from construction and value-add cost pressures to hospitality and retail demand, while noting strong household balance sheets and tactical opportunities for investors who position near policy beneficiaries like domestic steel. He closes with a pragmatic takeaway: uncertainty raises risk, but it also creates investable dislocations for informed operators. This is a limited time offer, so head over to aspenfunds.us/bestever to download the investor deck—or grab their quick-start guide if you're brand new to oil and gas investing. Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Podcast production done by ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 4042: Employment Revisions, Migration Slowdown and Multifamily Absorption with John Chang

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 28, 2025 38:05


On this week's episode of Horizon, John Chang unpacks where multifamily demand is heading amid conflicting data and shifting migration trends. He explains how the August employment revisions, slower domestic and international migration, and a still-wide rent-to-own payment gap could cool absorption in the near term, especially across high-construction Sun Belt markets. John contrasts those headwinds with steadier fundamentals in supply-constrained “snow belt” metros, notes the growing importance of lease renewals over new leases, and makes the case that cap rates are stabilizing near equilibrium. He closes with a near-term “slow and steady” outlook and a longer-term rebound thesis for select Sun Belt markets once excess supply burns off. This is a limited time offer, so head over to aspenfunds.us/bestever to download the investor deck—or grab their quick-start guide if you're brand new to oil and gas investing. Visit investwithsunrise.com to learn more about investment opportunities.  Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 4035: Rate Cuts, Retail Resilience and Recession-Ready Markets with John Chang

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 21, 2025 40:02


On this week's episode of Horizon Podcast, John Chang breaks down the Fed's latest rate cut, why he thinks it's driven more by confidence and political pressure than liquidity, and what the dot plot implies for the next few years. He explains how lower rates could briefly unjam CRE deal flow, then pivots to retail where inflation-adjusted sales are still rising and household leverage looks manageable relative to income. John also maps out how a mild, tariff- and labor-constraint-driven slowdown could create winners and losers by market, highlighting durability, policy orientation, industry mix, and overdevelopment risk as key filters. He closes with a demographic tailwind for consumption as millennials move deeper into peak earning years. This is a limited time offer, so head over to aspenfunds.us/bestever to download the investor deck—or grab their quick-start guide if you're brand new to oil and gas investing. Visit investwithsunrise.com to learn more about investment opportunities.  Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Podcast production done by ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 4028: Cap Rates Elevated, Construction Pullback and Positive Leverage Returns with John Chang

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 14, 2025 35:55


On this week's episode of The Horizon, John discusses why inflation is rising in a slow “trickle,” with food prices leading the gains, and how this feeds into rising odds of Fed rate cuts and a ~4% 10-year treasury. He explains why today's financing window—around 5% for agency multifamily—creates rare positive leverage and is already sparking activity. With construction starts falling and labor/material costs high, John outlines a favorable long-term setup: tighter future supply, elevated cap rates, and improving fundamentals. He also maps the risks (recession, weaker jobs data) and where to focus: Class A/B multifamily, necessity retail, medical office, and storage—while flagging trade-exposed West Coast industrial and some discretionary retail, and noting office as a potential “dark horse” on rising RTO pressure. This is a limited time offer, so head over to aspenfunds.us/bestever to download the investor deck—or grab their quick-start guide if you're brand new to oil and gas investing. Visit investwithsunrise.com to learn more about investment opportunities.  Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 4023: Fireside Chat - Rent Ceilings, Supply Shocks and Class Shifts with John Chang and Matt Faircloth

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 9, 2025 35:37


On this week's episode of Best Ever CRE Show, Matt Faircloth and John Chang are bringing you another fireside chat. They go back and forth on multifamily's next five years, debating rent ceilings versus demand tailwinds, class-by-class dynamics, and why construction tariffs and replacement costs could freeze new supply even as Gen Z household formation builds pressure. John explains how treasury issuance and the 10-year may keep long rates sticky, why office could be a dark-horse recovery play, and how hotels trading below replacement cost create near-term opportunity. They wrap with recession risk, practical stress tests, and when it's smarter to build reserves or sell before the cycle turns. This is a limited time offer, so head over to aspenfunds.us/bestever to download the investor deck—or grab their quick-start guide if you're brand new to oil and gas investing. Visit investwithsunrise.com to learn more about investment opportunities.  Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 4021: Weak Jobs Data, Fed Cuts and A Rare Debt Window with John Chang

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 7, 2025 41:58


On this week's episode of Horizon Podcast, John Chang breaks down the newest jobs report, why the Fed is poised to cut, and how a sub-4 percent 10-year Treasury creates a short window to lock attractive debt for acquisitions and refis. He explains why policy uncertainty and tariffs could stoke stagflation, then maps the likely impacts by asset class, from steady necessity retail and mixed industrial outlooks to a nascent office recovery fueled by rising return-to-office pressure. John also outlines why supply pipelines are tapering faster than demand in many markets, how absorption could remain positive even through a mild recession, and why real estate may still outperform stocks and bonds if inflation lingers. This is a limited time offer, so head over to aspenfunds.us/bestever to download the investor deck—or grab their quick-start guide if you're brand new to oil and gas investing. Visit investwithsunrise.com to learn more about investment opportunities.  Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 4016: Fireside Chats - Cash Flow, Positive Leverage and Scalability with Matt Faircloth and John Chang

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 2, 2025 35:37


On this week's episode of Best Ever CRE, John Chang and Matt Faircloth interview each other in a fireside chat style. They unpack the three market drivers John watches most — jobs, demographics and local supply — and why rates matter mainly when the deal hits underwriting rather than for predicting operating performance. Matt explains his pivot toward day-one cash flow, positive leverage and scalability while moving away from C class value add plays. They debate hospitality with Matt favoring flagged limited-service hotels tied to business travel as John flags labor and construction headwinds, then trade war stories on COVID and Lehman that forced forecasts to flip overnight. This is a limited time offer, so head over to aspenfunds.us/bestever to download the investor deck—or grab their quick-start guide if you're brand new to oil and gas investing. Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 4014: Seniors Housing Shortage, Aging Boomers and Rising Rents with John Chang

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2025 38:14


On this episode of The Horizon, John discusses two big themes: a looming seniors housing supply gap and why multifamily still looks durable. He explains that the 80+ population is set to surge while construction lags far behind NIC MAP's estimated needs, pushing occupancies up and rents higher—though labor shortages remain a risk. He then pivots to apartments, noting record absorption, a historically wide cost gap between owning and renting, and a steep drop in new starts—all of which should keep vacancies trending down even if growth cools in a recession. Net-net, he argues CRE—especially seniors housing and multifamily—remains compelling for long-term investors. Visit investwithsunrise.com to learn more about investment opportunities.  Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 4007: Consumer Debt vs. Income, Savings Tailwinds and Q4 Retail Risk with John Chang

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 24, 2025 37:35


On this episode of The Horizon, John discusses the July retail sales print—strong nominally but essentially flat after inflation—and why consumer capacity to spend (healthier debt-to-income ratios and rising savings) is at odds with willingness to spend as sentiment softens. He explains how tariffs are likely to shift more costs from businesses to consumers in coming months, potentially weighing on Q4 sales and nudging inflation higher. Translating this to CRE, John expects more pressure on West Coast industrial (trade-exposed) while retail vacancies drift up from record lows, with grocery/necessity retail holding steadier than restaurants. Longer-term, he sees structural demand supported by millennial spending power, sizable boomer wealth, and improving transaction activity into late-2025/2026. Visit investwithsunrise.com to learn more about investment opportunities.  Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 4000: Inflation Watch, Fed Dilemma, and Recession Risk with John Chang

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 17, 2025 33:08


On this episode of The Horizon, John discusses June inflation data, why tariff impacts haven't fully appeared in CPI yet, and how companies signal they'll pass more costs to consumers. He breaks down a weakening labor market, the Fed's dual mandate, and Wall Street's high odds of near‑term rate cuts—while warning that cutting into oncoming tariff-driven inflation could force a policy U‑turn. John explores CRE implications across property types (apartments, retail, industrial, office), the role of the 10‑year Treasury, and how uncertainty—not just rates—is throttling hiring and investment. He closes with a medium‑term outlook: transaction velocity likely rises into 2025–26 as dry powder deploys, with localized cap rate compression despite policy opacity. Visit investwithsunrise.com to learn more about investment opportunities.  Get 50% Off Monarch Money, the all-in-one financial tool at www.monarchmoney.com with code BESTEVER Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 3993: Jobs Report Shock, Inflation Outlook, Recession Risk Ahead with John Chang

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 10, 2025 35:31


On this episode of The Horizon, John discusses the August 1st jobs report, highlighting major downward revisions that reveal a sharp decline in job creation since April. He analyzes related economic indicators like labor force participation, ISM indices, and inflation trends, all pointing to growing recession risks. John also explores the tension the Federal Reserve faces between rising inflation and weakening employment, casting doubt on the likelihood of rate cuts despite market expectations. Wrapping up, he shares how these economic dynamics could affect commercial real estate—especially apartments, retail, and industrial—over the next 12 months and beyond. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF: 3986: Sales Trends, Cap Rate Nuance, and Why 2025 May Be the Time to Buy with John Chang

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 3, 2025 37:14


On this episode of The Horizon, John discusses second quarter commercial real estate sales trends, with a deep dive into multifamily and retail activity. He explains why transaction velocity—rather than dollar volume—is a more reliable market indicator, especially in a period with large portfolio deals like Blackstone's Air Communities acquisition. John also breaks down cap rate trends using both average and hedonic metrics, noting that while some asset classes show downward cap rate pressure, much of it may stem from deal quality shifts. He wraps with a forward-looking view, expressing optimism for 2025 as a strong entry point for investors, citing steady interest rates, more deal flow, and favorable long-term tax policies. Visit investwithsunrise.com to learn more about investment opportunities. Post your job for free at https://www.linkedin.com/BRE. Terms and conditions apply. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 3979: CRE Capital Flows, DSCR Constraints, and the Lending Pivot in 2025 ft. John Manning

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 27, 2025 41:16


On this episode of The Horizon, John Chang interviews John Manning, Executive Managing Director at Marcus & Millichap Capital Corporation, to unpack the current lending environment across commercial real estate. Manning outlines why CMBS lending has surged in 2025, citing borrower acceptance of current interest rates, availability of non-recourse loans, and the appeal of full-term interest-only financing. He compares CMBS to banks, life insurance companies, GSEs, and debt funds, highlighting how each fits into the market and why debt funds are becoming dominant for bridge and construction loans. They also look ahead to the next five years, predicting a recovery in transaction volume and capital flows, especially if proposed legislation allows more retirement money to flow into real estate. John Manning Current role: Executive Managing Director, Marcus & Millichap Capital Corporation Based in: Seattle, Washington Say hi to them at: https://www.marcusmillichap.com/advisors/john-manning Visit investwithsunrise.com to learn more about investment opportunities. Post your job for free at https://www.linkedin.com/BRE. Terms and conditions apply. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 3972: Cap Rates, Market Opportunities, and the $120B Shift That Could Change Everything with John Chang

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2025 25:25


On this episode of The Horizon, John discusses a potential game-changing executive order from President Trump that could allow U.S. retirement accounts like 401(k)s to invest in private market assets, including commercial real estate. He explores how this influx of capital could significantly reshape cap rates—not because of interest rates, but due to shifts in capital flows. Using historical data, John challenges the commonly held belief that cap rates track closely with interest rates, demonstrating instead that transaction volume and investor demand play a much stronger role. He concludes by urging investors to consider positioning themselves ahead of a possible capital wave that could drive property values higher. Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Post your job for free at https://www.linkedin.com/BRE. Terms and conditions apply. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 3965: Permanent Tax Rules, Inflation Risks, and Market Strategy with John Chang

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 13, 2025 32:44


On this episode of The Horizon, John discusses the long-term implications of the newly passed U.S. tax law and its impact on commercial real estate. He highlights the permanence of key provisions like accelerated depreciation, Opportunity Zones, and LIHTC expansions, explaining how they open the door for long-term investment strategies and development models. John also breaks down the potential inflationary effects of tariffs—particularly on construction materials—and how that could influence interest rates and Federal Reserve policy. He closes with insights on job market data, noting mixed signals beneath the headline unemployment rate and suggesting caution ahead. Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Post your job for free at https://www.linkedin.com/BRE. Terms and conditions apply. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 3958: Layoffs, Tariff Uncertainty, and Treasury Pressure with John Chang

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 6, 2025 33:48


On this episode of The Horizon, John Chang discusses the current trajectory of interest rates, the outlook on inflation, and the uncertain effects of tariffs and political influence on the Federal Reserve. He explores how treasury issuance and trade policies are shaping rate expectations, especially amid political pressure and global economic shifts. John also evaluates the U.S. job market's softening signals, growing layoffs, and how uncertainty is likely to rise again depending on post-July 9 tariff decisions. He ends by offering a forward-looking perspective on commercial real estate sectors—favoring demographic-driven investments like medical office, multifamily, and self-storage—while noting potential opportunities and risks in office, retail, and industrial assets. Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Post your job for free at https://www.linkedin.com/BRE. Terms and conditions apply. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 3951: The Hidden Efficiency Gap in CRE, Apartment Trends, and Capital Flow Illusions with John Chang

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 29, 2025 32:58


On this episode of The Horizon, John discusses the surprising inefficiencies in commercial real estate investing, specifically focusing on the apartment sector. He unpacks why markets like Chicago—despite strong rent growth and solid fundamentals—have higher cap rates and attract less capital than high-growth but lower-performing markets like Dallas-Fort Worth. John explores how investor behavior, herd mentality, and institutional capital flows influence asset values more than actual property performance. He concludes by highlighting overlooked cashflow markets like Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Milwaukee that offer strong yields in today's high-interest-rate environment. Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Post your job for free at https://www.linkedin.com/BRE. Terms and conditions apply. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 3944: Trump Policies, Rising Costs, and Real Estate Growth

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 22, 2025 29:04


On this episode of The Horizon, John Chang discusses why commercial real estate is likely to outperform over the next five years. He attributes this to two major Trump-era policies: increased tariffs and tightening immigration. Tariffs on materials like steel, aluminum, and Canadian softwood lumber are significantly raising construction costs, while stricter immigration policies are reducing the labor pool, further driving up labor expenses. These structural pressures are expected to constrain new development, shift supply-demand dynamics, and ultimately push up both rents and property values across sectors including multifamily, retail, office, and industrial. Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Post your job for free at https://www.linkedin.com/BRE. Terms and conditions apply. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 3937: Interest Rates on Pause, CRE on the Move, and Immigration's Economic Role

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 15, 2025 29:59


On this episode of The Horizon, John Chang discusses the delayed impact of new tariffs on inflation and how businesses stockpiling inventory may temporarily mask those effects. He outlines the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rates, noting likely rate stability through Q3, with potential movement in Q4 depending on economic indicators. John also explores how immigration policy and labor shortages—especially in construction and healthcare—pose challenges for commercial real estate. Finally, he unpacks how the proposed tax bill, including accelerated depreciation and expanded deductions, could benefit CRE investors, particularly those pursuing value-add strategies, and why he believes real estate may outperform other assets under a second Trump administration. Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Post your job for free at https://www.linkedin.com/BRE. Terms and conditions apply. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Real Estate Crowdfunding Show - DEAL TIME!
Real Estate's Margin for Error is Gone

The Real Estate Crowdfunding Show - DEAL TIME!

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 4, 2025 59:07


The Margin of Error Has Vanished: What CRE Investors Should Be Watching Now Commentary on a conversation with John Chang, Senior Vice President and National Director, Research and Advisory Services, Marcus & Millichap   The New CRE Investment Mandate: Survive First, Then Thrive “The margin of error has narrowed to virtually zero.” This was John Chang's stark assessment of today's commercial real estate environment – an era marked by fragile capital markets, rising Treasury yields, policy instability, and speculative hangovers from a decade of cheap money. According to Chang, the headline playbook hasn't changed: keep leverage low, maintain reserves, underwrite for downside. But the stakes have changed. What used to be prudent is now required. Those who forget that, particularly those lulled by the long post-GFC bull run, risk extinction.   Cap Rates, Treasury Yields, and the Compressed Spread A central theme of our conversation is the vanishing spread between borrowing costs and asset yields. Cap rates have risen 100–200 bps depending on asset class and geography, but Treasury rates have risen more. That's compressed spreads, rendering most acquisitions reliant on a value-creation story or an eventual rate reversal.   Investors are still transacting, says Chang, but only if they believe they can bridge the spread gap through operational improvements i.e. leasing, renovation, management upgrades. Passive cap-rate arbitrage is no longer viable. “The potential for something to go wrong is high,” Chang warns, especially in a policy environment that remains erratic.   The Treasury Market's Imminent Supply Shock Chang outlines why he expects upward pressure on Treasury yields for the balance of the year – contrary to the market's general expectations of rate cuts. Key reasons: Federal Deficits: With a delayed budget, Treasury issuance has been running below historical norms. That's about to reverse, with $1–1.5 trillion in supply expected by October. Shrinking Buyer Base: The Fed is reducing its balance sheet. Foreign holders, especially China and Japan, are net sellers. Even traditional allies are showing less appetite, driven partly by frictions over U.S. trade policy. Trade Tensions: Tariffs of up to 145% on imports from China, EU saber-rattling, and a broad retreat from globalization are alienating the very buyers of U.S. debt. “People don't want to do us any favors right now,” Chang says. “That uncertainty alone elevates risk premiums.”   Normalcy Bias and the Myth of the Perpetual Up Cycle Chang pulls no punches on the market psychology underpinning risky underwriting in recent years. He describes a bifurcated investor landscape: Those who entered post-GFC and think 2–3% interest rates and infinite rent growth are normal. Veterans of the 1990s S&L crisis, the dot-com bust, or the GFC, who know better. What's striking is the lack of long-term data. Even Marcus & Millichap, he notes, only has robust CRE data going back to 2000. Without context, many have mistaken the tailwind-fueled 2010s as a standard baseline.   “We're back to old-world real estate,” Chang says. “Where you have to actually understand the property, the tenant mix, the microeconomics of location. The era of pure financial engineering is over.”   Lessons from the Pandemic and GFC: Underwrite for Downside, Not for Hype Chang recounts closing on an investment in April 2020 at the very onset of pandemic uncertainty. “What if we rent at breakeven?” he asked. If the answer was yes, he proceeded. That conservative approach worked then and still applies today.   The biggest blow-ups, he says, came from sponsors who: Modeled double-digit rent growth. Over-leveraged. Used floating-rate debt without hedges. Ignored capex and reserves. By contrast, Chang praises sponsors who locked in fixed debt, kept leverage under 65%, and stayed humble. “They're embarrassed to be earning 7% IRRs,” he jokes, “but in this climate, that's a win.”   Washout in the Syndication Space: Good Riddance? Perhaps most damning is Chang's commentary on the wave of underqualified syndicators who entered during the boom years.   “Thousands came in with no operating experience,” he says, pointing to the proliferation of coaching programs offering checklists instead of expertise. These new entrants mimicked industry language – AUM figures, fund manager titles – but often had no institutional track record or risk management skills.   Many of them, Chang believes, are now out or on their way out. And while some may return with hard-earned wisdom, he expects the flow of “tourists” into the syndication world to dry up for the foreseeable future.   Tailwinds Still Exist: But Only for the Well-Prepared Despite the short-term risks, Chang sees multiple long-term tailwinds: Demographics: Millennials are delaying homeownership, renting into their 40s and fueling demand for multifamily. Inflation Resistance: Assets like multifamily, self-storage, and even select retail have pricing power in inflationary environments. Constrained Supply: Rising costs (e.g., lumber, steel tariffs) are slowing new construction, which will support existing asset values over time. He also flags tax policy as a positive surprise: The “BBB” tax bill, now working its way through the House, offers accelerated depreciation and expansion of Opportunity Zones particularly in rural areas. This could buoy returns in an otherwise challenging environment.   On the Aging of America: A Selective Case for Healthcare-Adjacent Assets Chang views medical office and senior housing through a bifurcated lens: Medical office: Attractive if tenants are stable, young, or anchored by heavy equipment. Long leases. Minimal turnover. Durable income. Assisted living: Demographic tailwinds are real, but operators matter more than ever. The Achilles heel? Labor. “About 30% of healthcare workers in the U.S. are foreign-born,” he warns. “And immigration policy, especially under restrictive regimes, will constrain the labor supply.” No staff, no NOI.   Final Signals: What He's Watching Closely If you want to forecast CRE performance, Chang suggests watching: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: A leading indicator of retail sales and housing trends. Currently falling. Inflation-adjusted Retail Sales: Shows how real consumption is holding up. Trade Policy & Supreme Court Rulings: The potential invalidation of Trump-era tariffs could reset inflation and Treasury outlooks but introduces a new kind of uncertainty. “We're not facing one black swan,” he concludes. “We're facing a whole flock. Pick your bird.”   Bottom Line This is not a time for heroic assumptions. It's a time for competence, humility, and discipline. If you must deploy capital, do so with sponsors who have been through a major downturn GFC style, and focus on those who didn't make capital calls, who still generate yield, and who underwrite to reality, not to hope.   The next 2–3 years may be rocky. But the long term still belongs to those who survive the short term.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 3916: Foreign Capital, Value Creation, and EPC's Long Game ft. Marcelo Margain

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later May 25, 2025 35:37


On this episode of The Horizon, John Chang interviews Marcelo Margain, managing partner at Eagle Property Capital (EPC), to explore how Mexican capital is fueling U.S. multifamily investments. Marcelo shares how EPC sources 85% of its capital from Mexico, leveraging investor interest in dollar-denominated assets and U.S. economic stability. He emphasizes the value of EPC's conservative investment strategy, fixed-rate financing, and their in-house management platform, which drives tenant satisfaction and high retention rates. Marcelo also highlights the firm's unique community-focused value-add approach and discusses their upcoming $300M Fund VI, targeting Sunbelt markets like Dallas, Houston, Orlando, and Tampa. Marcelo Margain Current role: Managing Partner at Eagle Property Capital Based in: Mexico Say hi to them at: LinkedIn profile or eaglepropertycapital.com Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Post your job for free at https://www.linkedin.com/BRE. Terms and conditions apply. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 3881: Tariffs, Tech, and Retail Resilience Ft. Greg Katz

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 20, 2025 37:21


On this episode of The Horizon, John Chang interviews Gregg Katz to unpack the ripple effects of tariffs, the paralysis caused by economic uncertainty, and shifts in consumer behavior. The two dive into how fluctuating tariffs on Chinese goods are impacting retailers differently—especially discount chains like Five Below and Dollar General—and explore how supply chain volatility is reshaping strategic decisions in real estate and retail. They also discuss the experiential shift in retail environments, highlighted by a tour of One Wall Street and its luxury French department store, and forecast a potential "back to basics" retail resurgence driven by Gen Z's unexpected preference for in-person shopping. Ultimately, both agree that despite short-term turbulence, retail real estate remains resilient and ripe with long-term opportunity. Greg Katz Director, Business Industry Solutions Based in: Atlanta, Georgia Say hi to them at https://www.linkedin.com/in/gregg-katz/ vikingcapllc.com Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at www.bestevercommunity.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF3860: Economic Uncertainty, Inflation Risks, and the Real Estate Outlook ft. John Silvia

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 30, 2025 34:03


On this episode of The Horizon, John Chang interviews economist John Silvia to discuss economic uncertainty, inflation risks, and their implications for real estate investors. Silvia highlights concerning trends, including slowing consumer spending, falling consumer sentiment, and the potential for a negative GDP print in the first quarter. He also analyzes the impact of new tariffs, which could raise inflation and weaken economic growth, leading to a higher risk of recession. The discussion turns to the Federal Reserve's response, with Silvia predicting potential rate cuts despite inflation pressures. The episode closes with a look at investment opportunities in commercial real estate and a cautiously optimistic outlook for the next three years. Sponsors: Capital Gains Tax Solutions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF 3855: Rents, Risks, and Real Estate Resilience: John Chang Explains Market Shifts Since 2020

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 25, 2025 33:23


On this episode of The Horizon, John discusses the origins of his signature phrase “keep your eyes on the horizon” and uses commercial real estate data to show the importance of long-term thinking in uncertain times. Reflecting on the five years since the COVID-19 outbreak, John breaks down the performance of office, retail, industrial, and apartment sectors, highlighting which property types have thrived and which have struggled. He emphasizes that despite current economic uncertainty—driven by tariffs, immigration policies, and inflation risks—demographics and market fundamentals point to strong future demand. John urges investors to look past short-term turbulence and focus on long-term opportunity. Sponsors: Vintage Capital Capital Gains Tax Solutions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF3848: Tariff Impact Analysis, Institutional Capital Return, & Market Cycle Positioning in Commercial Real Estate

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 18, 2025 32:42


On this episode of The Horizon, John Chang of Marcus & Millichap and Ben Leybovich discuss how recent economic shifts are creating unique investment opportunities in commercial real estate. They analyze how stock market volatility and new tariff policies are alienating international investors while prompting wealthy Americans to seek alternative investment vehicles. John shares insights from institutional players who are beginning to deploy capital into multifamily properties despite negative leverage, betting on future rent growth rather than immediate interest rate cuts. The conversation highlights why periods of elevated cap rates have historically proven to be excellent entry points for investors, and why commercial real estate remains attractive in uncertain times. Ben also discusses his innovative garage condo development project that's already 60% pre-sold, demonstrating how targeting affluent consumers with specialized real estate products can yield substantial returns even in challenging economic climates. Sponsors: Vintage Capital Capital Gains Tax Solutions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF3841: Retail Investing Advantages, Office Market Opportunities, & Commercial Tenant Selection Strategies ft. Ash Patel

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 11, 2025 28:31


On this episode of The Horizon, John Chang interviews Ash Patel from the Best Ever Conference 2026. They talk about his contrarian investment approach focusing on retail, office, and medical properties while avoiding residential tenants. Ash shares insights on why he prefers commercial tenants who treat properties professionally, explains how suburban office spaces in walkable areas are outperforming urban core locations, and reveals strategies for finding value-add retail opportunities with limited competition. The conversation explores recent market trends showing increased office absorption nationally, the surprising demand from national retail tenants actively seeking space, and why medical office remains a reliable investment with strong tenant stability. Ash also offers practical advice on evaluating markets, avoiding overhyped locations, and why buying properties at significant discounts in challenging asset classes can lead to substantial long-term returns despite current economic headwinds. Sponsors: Vintage Capital Capital Gains Tax Solutions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF3834: Economic Uncertainty Analysis, Multifamily Supply-Demand Forecast, & Commercial Real Estate Investment Timing Strategy ft. John Chang

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 4, 2025 32:19


On this episode of The Horizon, host John Chang shares key insights from his recent workshop at the Best Ever Conference about critical market trends impacting real estate investment in 2025. Chang analyzes how the new Trump administration's potential policies on tariffs and immigration could impact economic growth, construction costs, and labor markets. He explains why multifamily fundamentals are strengthening as construction pipelines drop dramatically (with starts down 75% from peak) while demographic demand drivers remain strong. Drawing parallels to previous market cycles, Chang notes that the current cap rate expansion represents only the fourth significant instance since 1992, and historically, investments made during these periods have delivered superior returns. The episode provides a comprehensive outlook for commercial real estate investors navigating political uncertainty while positioning for long-term growth. Sponsors: Vintage Capital Capital Gains Tax Solutions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF3827: Capital Market Opportunities, Multifamily Absorption Trends, & Lender Relationship Strategy for Market Distress ft. Joe Fairless

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 25, 2025 29:36


On this episode of The Horizon, host John Chang interviews Joe Fairless, co-founder of Ashcroft Capital, about navigating today's complex commercial real estate landscape. Fairless, who manages over $2.8 billion in assets across 14,000 apartment units, shares insights on finding opportunities amid market distress by cultivating relationships with lenders seeking capable operators for distressed properties. They discuss the record-breaking apartment absorption in late 2023, the decreasing construction pipeline, and how these fundamentals create buying opportunities despite challenging capital raising conditions. Fairless also candidly addresses lessons learned from previous deals and emphasizes the importance of "extreme ownership" when communicating with investors during difficult market periods. Sponsors: Crystal View Capital Capital Gains Tax Solutions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Gabfocus Self Storage Podcast
2025 State of the Industry with John Chang

Gabfocus Self Storage Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 20, 2025 70:04


In this rebroadcast of our February 20, 2025 webinar, John Chang from Marcus & Millichap provides an in-depth analysis of the self-storage industry's economic landscape in 2025. With inflation stabilizing, interest rates remaining high, and occupancy trends shifting, John breaks down key market forces shaping the industry and what operators should be prepared for. Topics covered include: The impact of economic uncertainty on self-storage Pricing strategies, rate wars, and competitive pressures Market saturation, construction slowdowns, and regional trends How younger tenants are changing length-of-stay patterns The growing role of technology and AI in operations and marketing Investment insights: Is now a good time to buy, sell, or expand? If you're a self-storage owner, investor, or operator looking for expert insights into what's ahead, this episode is packed with valuable takeaways. Guests: John Chang, Marcus & Millichap Hosts: Tommy Nguyen & Melissa Huff Brought to you by the teams at StoragePug and Lighthouse Storage Solutions

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF3820: Market Recovery Insights, Investment Timing Strategy, & Total Return Expectations ft. Brian Murray

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 18, 2025 33:12


On this episode of The Horizon with John Chang, Brian Murray draws from over 40 years of commercial real estate experience to analyze current market dynamics and future opportunities. With multiple market cycles under his belt since Black Monday in 1987, Murray explains why the bid-ask spread is finally narrowing and why private capital has advantages over institutional investors in today's market. He shares his bullish outlook on multifamily, predicting an 11% unlevered IRR over the next five years, while noting that markets historically rebound faster than experts predict. The conversation provides valuable perspective on why real estate fundamentals remain strong despite current interest rate headwinds, especially given the widening gap between home ownership costs and apartment rents. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF3813: Policy Impact Analysis: Tariffs, Immigration & Real Estate Market Forecasts in 2025 ft. John Chang

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 11, 2025 30:51


On this episode of the Best Ever CRE Show, Marcus & Millichap's John Chang delivers a timely solo analysis of how recent policy changes could impact commercial real estate markets in 2025. Chang examines the potential effects of new tariffs with Canada, Mexico, and China, forecasting reduced GDP growth and increased inflation. He provides detailed insights into how these policies might affect various commercial real estate sectors, with particular focus on multifamily where construction costs could rise significantly due to tariffs on building materials. Chang also addresses how stricter immigration policies could exacerbate labor shortages in construction, potentially leading to reduced housing supply amid strong rental demand. The episode offers a comprehensive look at the intersection of policy changes, economic indicators, and commercial real estate market dynamics. Sponsors: Crystal View Capital Capital Gains Tax Solutions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF3806: Commercial Real Estate Lending Landscape, Multi-Family Capital Markets, & Property Type Financing Outlook in 2025 ft. John Manning

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 4, 2025 37:21


On this episode of The Horizon with John Chang, John interviews John Manning. They discuss the current state of the multifamily real estate market, highlighting optimism despite challenges such as high interest rates and limited transactional activity. He explores the role of debt funds, compares various property types, and addresses the difficulties in office financing. John also shares predictions for 2025, emphasizing the potential for increased transaction volume and the importance of strategic financing decisions. Sponsors: Crystal View Capital Capital Gains Tax Solutions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ask Me How I Know: Multifamily Investor Stories of Struggle to Success
The 2025 Real Estate Investment Outlook: Insights You Can't Miss! | Episode 563

Ask Me How I Know: Multifamily Investor Stories of Struggle to Success

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 30, 2025 45:54


Conscious Investor, are you ready to step into 2025 with clarity and confidence in your real estate investing journey? In this episode, I break down the key market trends shaping the real estate landscape for the upcoming year. Drawing from historical patterns and the latest data, I help you understand where opportunities are and how you can capitalize on them, whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out.We explore essential topics such as the current housing shortage, the future of multifamily investments, and the potential policy shifts that could impact the real estate market. Plus, I share actionable strategies to help you stay ahead in a shifting economic landscape. By the end of this episode, you'll have a clearer vision of how to navigate 2025's market with wisdom and precision.Marcus & Millichap 2025 Multifamily Investment Outlook:https://event.on24.com/wcc/r/4775601/FC67F9A14ED824F4C932EDD91BB3EDF6?partnerref=13Connect With John:https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnchang/The Horizon with John Chang:https://www.bestevercre.com/podcast/2025-cre-outlook-why-the-next-12-months-might-be-a-once-in-a-decade-buying-opportunity Marcus & Millichap:https://www.marcusmillichap.com/Conscious Investor Growth Summit details:https://www.consciousinvestorgrowthsummit.com/Newsletter:https://link.iamaconsciousinvestor.com/widget/form/DPbUpgmqXlu3jrMUELN9Future Coaching/Experience Opportunities Form:https://link.iamaconsciousinvestor.com/widget/form/aaXwrHvnQvMBC1i1agRM1:1 Coaching Interest Form:https://link.iamaconsciousinvestor.com/widget/form/Ur85N0AIC3cahrcXt4oMPodcast Feedback:https://say.iamaconsciousinvestor.com/podcast-home-001777045Schedule a 30-min call to learn about investing with Three Keys Investments:bit.ly/3yteWhxIf you're looking for an affordable healthcare solution, check out Christian Healthcare Ministries.https://bit.ly/3JTRm1IEach week I send out a newsletter that's designed to take thinking deeper. Join the thousands of other newsletter subscribers here: https://link.iamaconsciousinvestor.com/widget/form/DPbUpgmqXlu3jrMUELN9

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF3799: Interest Rate Outlook, US Property Fundamentals, & Capital Market Dynamics in 2025 ft. Sean Bannon

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 28, 2025 32:06


On this episode of The Horizon with John Chang, Sean Bannon discusses the current state of commercial real estate, focusing on the impact of interest rates, the role of private capital versus institutional investors, and insights into the apartment market. He emphasizes the resilience of the US economy and the potential for growth in real estate investments despite challenges posed by high rates. The discussion also touches on the future of office spaces and the evolving dynamics of the real estate market. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF3785: Commercial Real Estate Auctions, Due Diligence Process, & Setting Reserve Prices ft. Jim Palmer

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 14, 2025 37:51


On this episode of The Horizon with John Chang, Jim Palmer explains the intricacies of real estate auctions, emphasizing the importance of due diligence, the role of independent brokers, and the advantages of auctioning properties over traditional sales. He discusses the auction process, including the marketing period, bidding dynamics, and the significance of setting appropriate reserve prices. Jim also shares success stories that highlight the effectiveness of auctions in achieving favorable outcomes for sellers and buyers alike. Sponsors: Crystal View Capital Altra Running Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF3771: 2025 CRE Outlook: Why The Next 12 Months Might Be a Once-in-a-Decade Buying Opportunity ft. John Chang

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 31, 2024 32:01


In this episode, John Chang discusses the commercial real estate investment outlook for 2025, highlighting the potential impacts of political changes, economic challenges, and demographic trends. He emphasizes the opportunities that may arise amidst uncertainty, particularly in the context of labor shortages and shifting market dynamics across various regions. Sponsors: Altra Running Sunrise Capital Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF3764: Housing's New Reality: Empty Nesters Stay Put, First-Time Buyers Locked Out, and Build-to-Rent's Big Moment ft. John E Silvia

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 24, 2024 30:03


In this episode of The Horizon with John Chang, John interviews economist John E. Silvia to discuss economic outlook and housing market trends. Silvia shares insights on consumer sentiment improvement and housing affordability challenges, particularly in coastal markets. They explore how high interest rates, construction costs, and labor shortages are impacting housing supply, with Silvia noting significant regional disparities in affordability. The conversation covers rental housing trends, with particular focus on Sun Belt markets experiencing high supply growth but strong absorption. They discuss the emergence of build-to-rent models and alternative housing options like townhouses and condos as solutions to housing shortages. Silvia predicts continued strong housing demand over the next 5-10 years but expects construction to remain in "second gear" relative to historical levels, maintaining the current housing shortage of 3-5 million units. John E Silvia | Real Estate Background CEO and Founder of Dynamic Economic Strategy Based in: Captiva, Florida Say hi to them at: LinkedIn www.johnesilvia.com Sponsors: Altra Running Sunrise Capital Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF3757: Why Smart Money is Betting on Strip Malls Despite Construction Freeze ft. Gregg Katz

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 17, 2024 29:03


In this episode of Horizon with John Chang, Gregg Katz discusses retail trends and consumer spending. Katz shares insights on holiday retail sales, consumer debt levels, and the evolving retail landscape. They analyze department store performance, with Nordstrom emerging as a strong performer while others like Macy's and Kohl's show concerning signs. The conversation also covers mall transformations, the success of open-air retail centers, and investment opportunities in retail real estate given limited new construction pipelines. Katz emphasizes the growing importance of catering to aging populations and sees significant runway left in retail investment despite current market caution. Sponsors: Altra Running Sunrise Capital Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF3743: Lifestyle Flex, Data Centers, and Emerging Niche Plays in CRE ft. Ben Lapidus

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 3, 2024 32:38


John Chang and Ben Lapidus delve into the world of niche real estate investments, focusing on unique concepts like flex space and data centers. They discuss the challenges of selling these unconventional properties, the potential for growth in niche asset classes, and the opportunities available for small to mid-size investors. The conversation highlights the evolving landscape of commercial real estate and the importance of understanding market demands. Sponsors: Altra Running Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever
JF3736: The Secret Life of Interest Rates — Inflation, the Election, and What Comes Next ft. Ben Lapidus

Best Real Estate Investing Advice Ever

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 26, 2024 29:26


John Chang and Ben Lapidus explore the current state of the real estate market in John's debut episode of "The Horizon with John Chang". They focus on the impact of interest rates, differing regional perspectives, and the long-term outlook for real estate investments. They discuss the importance of understanding market dynamics, the potential for investment opportunities, and the need for investors to keep a forward-looking perspective. The dialogue emphasizes the value of real estate as a consistent and reliable investment vehicle, even amidst fluctuating economic conditions. Sponsors: Altra Running Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Gambling With an Edge
Blackjack Ball 2024

Gambling With an Edge

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 16, 2024 47:35


Bob and I are back after a long hiatus to talk about this years blackjack ball. We are joined by John Chang, former head of the MIT team, Max Rubin, the host and creator of the blackjack ball, and Rick "Night Train" Blaine who was this year's inductee into the blackjack hall of fame.

Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast
Solar Surge, Data Centers & Texas!

Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 27, 2024 8:05


Solar electricity is now expanding faster than any other kind of power source in the U.S. New solar installations are surging ahead of natural gas expansion as demand grows for the transition to clean energy for homes, businesses, data centers, and artificial intelligence. It's still a small percentage of the electricity we use, but industry experts say we are at a turning point in our decarbonization goals.   I'd like to mention that anyone who missed my 2024 Mid-Year Economic Update can see a replay of the webinar at our website. I had one of my favorite economists as co-host – the very knowledgeable and engaging John Chang of Marcus & Millichap. You will find the webinar replay at www.newsforinvestors.com. We welcome ideas and comments at podcasts@realwealth.com.   -Kathy   References:   https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/19/solar-is-growing-faster-than-any-energy-source-as-clean-power-for-data-centers.html   https://www.govtech.com/computing/cheap-power-high-demand-drive-texas-data-center-growth   https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/solar/epa-community-solar-7-billion   /https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/2024-04/Queued%20Up%202024%20Edition_R2.pdf   https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/a-decade-of-us-solar-growth-2024   Links: ~~~~ JOIN RealWealth® FOR FREE

Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast
New Migration Trends for Smarter Investing Decisions

Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 24, 2024 5:41


Migration trends are a crucial part of the real estate industry. Population growth equals more demand for nearly all asset classes of real estate. But demand changes over time, so it's also vital to be on top of what's trending in order to make smart decisions. In this episode, we'll take a look at what's happening in 2024 according to one of my favorite demographic experts. And I also just recorded a show on this on my other podcast with another expert demographer. You can check that out on the Real Wealth Show.  Hi I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. And if you love economic trends, it's not too late to sign up for my Mid-Year Economic Update webinar, scheduled for July 25th. John Chang of Marcus and Millichap will join me, with lots of data on hand. It's free to attend with a Q&A at the end to answer your questions. Look for a link to sign up in the show notes below. ~~~~ REFERENCES: https://jbrec.com/insights/3-migration-shifts-shaping-housing-markets-in-2024/?utm_campaign=BMI&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8VDpBLTaDkm2X8cF61hQelAmr-HfRgS8DYsW1h_l-7qoolUxg6Dr0ay1k4x4YAWnsFvan40ky35Mr5Lnd4Rxr8PRWUHH4MaLiUJ8Spx6DEl5-pQoo&_hsmi=315538342&utm_content=315538342&utm_source=hs_email ~~~~ LINKS: Mid-Year Economic Update Webinar: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/489691033155567445   ~~~~ JOIN RealWealth® FOR FREE

Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast
The Real Estate News Brief: Pressure Building for Rate Cut, Top Cities for Renters, Values Rise Size Falls… for Lots!

Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 18, 2024 7:11


In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending July 13th, 2024… what the Fed is saying about a rate cut, where renters are finding the best deals, and new trends for lot size and values! Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. I'd like to take a moment to invite you to a free fun mid-year update on today's economy. You'll hear from both me and one of my favorite economists, John Chang, on what we think of the current economic conditions and the housing market. You'll also have a chance to ask us questions so don't come empty-handed! It's happening on July 25th. Look for a link to sign up in the show notes below. Links: Register for Mid-Year Economic Update with Kathy Fettke & John Chang Webinar: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/489691033155567445 ~~~~ JOIN RealWealth® FOR FREE

Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast
Is the Government Getting It All Wrong on Jobs?

Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 16, 2024 4:55


The monthly jobs report on hiring is a critical piece of economic data, but it is almost always overstated, and lately, significantly overstated. Out of the last 17 months, the government posted substantial revisions for 15 months. So why is this happening and how does it impact our view of the economy and the Federal Reserve's decision on rate cuts? Hi I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. I'd like to take a moment to invite you to my 2024 Mid-Year Economic Update with economist John Chang. We'll be sharing our thoughts on the economy and the housing market during a free webinar on July 25th. You'll find a link to register below. We'll have a Q&A at the end so remember to bring your questions! References: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobs-report-is-exaggerating-u-s-employment-gains-what-is-going-on-6efcd6b7   Links: ~~~~ Register for the webinar: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/489691033155567445 ~~~~ JOIN RealWealth® FOR FREE