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Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news incoherent trade policies have driven the US dollar to its lowest level since 2022 as markets don't see any easing of geopolitical risks driven out of Washington. The US said it will set unilateral tariff rates on most trading partners at the end of the month.Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims came in at 245,000 last week, little-changed from the prior week. This embeds the recent higher level and extends the 2025 rising trend. We haven't seen two consecutive high-claims weeks since mid 2023. There are now 1.8 mln people on these benefits, +7.1 more than year-ago levels.The immigration crackdown on undocumented farm and hospitality workers is having ripple impacts on corporate America, with some major brands reporting stuttering sales.And the Congressional Budget Office has set out how the Trump Budget Bill will hurt middle and poor Americans, and enrich wealthy ones. It is a report sure to annoy the President.And he is already annoyed by the Fed not cutting interest rates.Separately, as analysts expected, US producer prices came in +2.6% higher in May than a year ago.The UST 30yr bond auction today saw a -7.5% fall in investor demand, mirroring the -10% drop in support we noted yesterday in the UST 10yr auction. The median yield came in at 4.80%, up from the 4.75% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.Elsewhere, India's CPI inflation fell to 2.8% in May from 3.2% in April and dipping below analyst expectations of 3%. This is their lowest reading since February 2019, so a six year low. It is also getting closer to the bottom of their central bank's inflation target range of 2%-6%. Food price rises fell to the lowest level since October 2021, and drove the easing.In Australia, the Melbourne Institute survey for June shows inflation expectations there rising to 5.0%, the highest level since July 2023 and up sharply from the 4.1% in May.International container freight rates were unchanged last week from the prior week to now be -26% lower than year-ago levels. A year ago rates were in a strong rising trend which lasted until July, then they eased steadily until May 2025. Bulk freight rates rose +6.8% last week from the week before to their highest level since early November. They are now -5.2% lower than year ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.36%, and down -6 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,383/oz, and up +US$60 from yesterday.American oil prices are up another +US$1.50 at just over US$68.50/bbl while the international Brent price is now just over US$69.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just over 60.6 USc, up +20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also up +20 bps at 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 52.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at under 68.3 and essentially unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,419 and down -0.6% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

In heterosexual partnerships, women contribute more to housework and childcare than their male partners, even if both work full time. This was the result of the annual Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey. An interesting result is that men probably don't even notice the difference. We talk about this with the co-author of the study, Dr. Inga Lass from the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research. - In heterosexuellen Partnerschaften tragen Frauen mehr zu Hausarbeit und Kinderbetreuung bei als ihre männlichen Partner, selbst wenn beide Vollzeit arbeiten. Dies hat die jährlich durchgeführte Studie Household Income and Labor Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) ergeben. Ein interessantes Ergebnis dabei ist, dass Männer den Unterschied wohl gar nicht so mitbekommen. Darüber sprechen wir mit der Co-Autorin der Studie, Dr. Inga Laß vom Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the week has started tentatively. But there was an eye-catching housing affordability proposal in Spain,But first, there were no real surprises in the latest survey of American inflation expectations. Consumers still see a 3% rate for the year ahead, more for food (+4.0%), less for petrol (+2.0%), but still high for rent (+5.5%). For three years ahead, expectations are for no relief, up from +2.6% to +3.0% per year.But more than expected, Chinese exports surged +10.7% in December from year-ago levels, much more than the market forecasts of +7.3% and accelerating from a +6.7% rise in November. Traders are clearly front-loading orders in anticipation of new aggressive tariffs from the incoming US administration. But Chinese exports to New Zealand were down -1.8% in the month, their imports from us down -7.9%.Chinese imports only rose +1.0%.China's new vehicle sales rose to 3.5 mln units in December, spurred by those taxpayer discounts to encourage spending. They were more than +10% higher in the month than the same month a year earlier. NEVs took a record 45% share of these latest sales. Traditionally, December is their peak sales month of the calendar year.India's CPI inflation rate eased from +5.5% in November to +5.2% in December. Food prices, which account for nearly half on their survey, rose +8.4%. If there is good news among this data it is that prices fell in December from November.Meanwhile, the Indian currency fell to more than 86.7 rupee to the USD. At the start of the year it was 'only' 85.5 so that is -1.4% in two weeks. At the start of 2024 it was at 83 so -4.3% since then. (Still, that is nothing like the -10.4% fall by the NZD against the USD since the start of 2024.)In Australia, the Melbourne Institute's Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by +0.6% in December 2024, sharply accelerating from a +0.2% increase in November and marking the highest level since December 2023. It was also the fourth consecutive month of gain.The ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads survey rose by +0.3% in December from November, swinging from a revised -1.8% drop in the prior month. The latest level suggests their labour market is still resilient on a short-term basis despite elevated interest rates. On an annual basis however, job ads dropped -12.5% from December 2023. They have dropped almost -28% from their peak in 2022.In Europe, Spain like many others is facing a housing crisis. They fear a "rich owner / poor tenant" split that is developing elsewhere. Their government has twelve measures proposed to deal with the issue, one of which is a 100% tax on non-EU house buyers.And for the record, the coal price fell further overnight. Oddly, demand is up in China, but so is output - more so - and they have fast-building inventories.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.77%, and up just +1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$2665/oz and down -US$25 from yesterday.Oil prices are up +US$2 from yesterday at just over US$78.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$81.The Kiwi dollar starts today just on 55.5 USc and down -10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 54.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.6 and down less than -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,068 and down -3.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at +/- 3.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

In this "Giants in Plastic Surgery" episode of the PRS Global Open Deep Cuts Podcast, Marc Pacifico, a top plastic surgeon and previous president of BAAPS, discusses his journey through the highs and hurdles of establishing his own practice. Mr. Pacifico opens up about his formative training experiences in prestigious hospitals, the challenges he faced setting up Purity Bridge, and the lessons he learned from working across various countries. From practical advice for aspiring surgeons to candid reflections on mistakes made, Mr. Pacifico offers valuable guidance for anyone looking to build a successful career in aesthetic surgery.   Mr. Marc Pacifico, a renowned plastic surgeon and previous president of the British Association of Aesthetic Plastic Surgeons (BAAPS), is celebrated for his expertise in breast and facial plastic surgery. Certified by the Royal College of Surgeons of England, he specializes in facial rejuvenation procedures, including deep plane facelifts, neck lifts, and eyelid surgery. His breast surgery practice includes augmentations, reductions, and lifts, often combined with body contouring in “mummy makeovers.” Known for his skill in revision breast surgery, Mr. Pacifico frequently receives referrals from colleagues to correct issues arising from previous surgeries. Committed to high standards, he prioritizes patient safety and offers honest assessments regarding surgical suitability.   Mr Marc Pacifico graduated from St. Bartholomew's Hospital Medical College and trained at prominent hospitals in London, culminating in specialist plastic surgery training at Charing Cross and Mount Vernon hospitals, where he also completed a doctorate on melanoma outcomes. His advanced training includes an aesthetic fellowship at the Melbourne Institute of Plastic Surgery, and he is a recipient of the prestigious Ian McGregor gold medal in the FRCS (Plast.) exam. In 2013, Marc founded Purity Bridge, a private clinic in Tunbridge Wells, where he emphasizes natural, refined results and a thorough pre- and post-operative care approach for optimal recovery. As an accredited member of BAAPS, BAPRAS, ISAPS, and an editor for Aesthetic Surgery Journal, he remains actively involved in advancing the field of aesthetic surgery.   Your host, Dr. Vimal Gokani, is a senior Specialty Registrar in plastic surgery in London, England. Your producer & editor, Charlene Kok, is a Year 3 Medical Student in Imperial College London, England, with a keen interest in Plastic Surgery.   #PRSGlobalOpen #DeepCutsPodcast #PlasticSurgery #GiantsPlasticSurgery

Dr Maxim Ananyev from Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, on the definition of 'poverty line', when it was introduced and why it has not been adopted at the state level in Australia. - Доктор Максим Ананьев из Мельбурнского института прикладных экономических и социальных исследований в разговоре с SBS Russian объясняет, в какой момент было введено само понятие черты бедности и почему в Австралии оно не принято на государственном уровне.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news China seems to be making a play to avoided as an investment destination.But first, initial US jobless claims fell to just +192,000 last week when a small increase was anticipated. Still no labour market stress signals here. The total number of people on these benefits fell below 1.7 mln, the lowest level of the year. The insured unemployment rate remains at a very low 1.1%.The globally benchmarked S&P Global/Markit factory PMI for the US rose (to 50.9) in May from its steady state in April although it did not get its boost from new orders this time. But new order growth was a feature of their May services PMI (54.8) with an impressive display and a two year high.This May strength is yet to show up in the Chicago Fed's National activity Index which slipped slightly in April. But it is showing up in the Kansas City Fed's factory survey which recorded a good recovery.It definitely did not show up in the April new home sales data, which in the month ran at almost -8% lower than the year-ago level. The retreat has been gradual each month in that period, but relentless.Perhaps we should note that there was another case reported where bird flu in US dairy cows has jumped to a human. Officials still say the risk is low.The internationally-benchmarked May S&P Global (Markit) PMI for Japan delivered its fastest expansion in nine months. Their previously shrinking factory sector rose to a minor expansion (50.5) while their service sector expansion slipped slightly (53.6).India's PMI data continued its strong run in May, for both the factory and services sector. A feature is the growing rise in exports, presumably benefiting from the China de-risking trend.Taiwanese industrial production was up more than +14% from a year ago in April. That is partly a reflection of weakness a year ago but for the past three months the month-on-month rises have been impressive and March was notably revised higher. Their retail sales growth was more modest however although its base was more solid. All this comes before the full-court pressure the PLA is currently applying to the island nation, a crude show of force in the Russian style.Beijing's claim that they are 'prioritising business reforms' rings hollow in light of the Taiwan pressure.In Europe, their economic recovery gained momentum in May, according to provisional PMI survey data. Faster increases in business activity, new orders and employment were all recorded in the month, while business confidence hit a 27-month high. This recovery is being led by Germany. Meanwhile, rates of inflation of both input costs and output prices softened from April, but remained above pre-pandemic averages in each case.Australian inflation expectations, as monitored in a respected Melbourne Institute survey, eased to 4.1% for the year ahead, down from 4.6% last month. The last time they measured actual inflation, it came in at 3.5% in March.The internationally-benchmarked May S&P Global (Markit) PMI for Australia delivered another small contraction in the factory sector (49.6) but a good expansion in the service sector (53.1). But both levels were lower than March and April. New orders retreated in both sectors, but to be fair the reductions were slight and the least in the past three months.The tighter global security situation has seen the container freight rates leap again, up +16% in the week to their highest in at least a year. The jump is all about outbound cargoes from China which emphasises the risks of trade from there. The Taiwan situation will make it even worse next week. So far, bulk cargo rates haven't moved much in the past week.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.48% and up +5 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today still in a sharp down-trend, down another -US$51 at US$2336/oz. That is now down -US$119 from its all-time high on May 20, 2024, a -4.8% retreat.Oil prices are down another -US$1 at US$76.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is down a bit less to under US$81/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today unchanged from yesterday at just on 61 USc. Against the Aussie we are firmer, up +¼c at 92.3 AUc and a two-month high. Against the euro we are firmish at 56.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 70.4, and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$67,776 and down -3.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just on +/- 1.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the global service sector is in reasonable shape, helping generate new impetus to the world's economy. Equity markets are rising the wave.In China, their private Caixin services PMI brought some good solid news. It was little-changed in April from the expansion in March, but now the 16th straight month of expansion of services their services sector. This private survey reports a faster expansion than the official version. Of special note is that new business grew the most in nearly a year and the fastest since May 2023. Foreign sales rising the most in ten months.According to the combined factory and services PMIs, the Eurozone expanded its fastest in a year in April. In fact their services expansion was faster than either China, Japan or the US. Their new business volumes rose for a second successive month and at the quickest pace since May last year.Only India is expanding faster among the major global economies.In Australia, the Melbourne Institute monthly inflation monitor for April found an increase in monthly inflation, although annual inflation continues to decline. Annual changes in the cost of living also fell for most household types.And Aussie job ads rose in April somewhat unexpectedly and halting a longish retreat. In fact they were almost +3% higher in the month from March. Better, the rise was broad-based, except for healthcare. However these levels are still -6.6% lower than a year ago, and as good as the recent rise was, in fact it is trending at a flat level.All eyes will be on the RBA at 4:30pm today (NZT) and their monetary policy review. They have a history of occasionally acting differently to what markets expect so there is some market pricing tension about what they will come up with. The main 'risk' is that they will be more hawkish than expected, given their sticky inflation levels.It is very noticeable that some key mineral prices are on the rise again. That includes zinc, nickel, tin, lead, aluminium, and copper. A rise in global demand is behind the broad recent increases. There are some tighter supply points too, as is usual in the transition.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.49% and down -2 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$24 from yesterday at US$2325/oz.Oil prices have stayed down at just under US$78/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$83/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today unchanged from yesterday at just over 60.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are softer at 90.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 55.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 69.3 and and unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,094 and down -1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Research shows loneliness costs the Australian economy $2.7 billion per year or $1565 per person.The World Health Organisation has also declared loneliness to be a global health concern. And it's estimated loneliness has an equivalent health impact on the body to smoking 15 cigarettes a day.Before the pandemic older Australians were found to be the loneliest in the nation. But now the data now shows this has shifted and younger Australians are the feeling the effects of being alone and isolated.Technology has allowed us to be more connected than before, but has all this left us lonelier than ever?Guests:Andrew Dempster, Principal Director & Leader of the National Mental Health Advisory Business, KPMGRoger Wilkins, Professorial Fellow at Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, and Co-Director of the HILDA SurveyLiesel Sharabi, from the Hugh Downs School of Human Communication at Arizona State University.Lixia Qu, Senior Research Fellow at the Australian Institute of Family Studies.

Daniel Kahneman, the psychologist who changed the science of economics, passed away on March 27, 2024. SBS Russian talked to Dr Maxim Ananyev, researcher at the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, the significance of Kahneman's work. - Ушел из жизни Даниэль Канеман — психолог, изменивший экономическую науку. О Канемане и его неизменном коллеге Амосе Тверски и значимости их работ SBS Russian поговорили с доктором Максимом Ананьевым, научным сотрудником Мельбурнского института прикладных экономических и социальных исследований.

According to the latest HILDA (Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia) report, young Australians are more likely to experience loneliness and psychological distress than any other age group. For twenty years, HILDA has been interviewing the same network of 17,000 Australians, every year, to compile results that give us comprehensive insight into the lives of Australians. To help us understand more about what is causing this loneliness epidemic, we speak to one of the experts behind the data on today's podcast. Credits:Hosts: Zara Seidler and Emma GillespieGuest: Professor Roger Wilkins, Co-Director of the HILDA Survey Project and Deputy Director of the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social ResearchAudio Producer: Emmeline PetersonGive your thoughts via our podcast surveySubscribe to The Daily Aus newsletterBuy our book No Silly Questions See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with the giant US economy is putting most other major economies in its shadow, expanding while others stumble.But first, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the US fell by -12,500 from the prior week to 222,000, firmly below market estimates. It was the lowest reading in nearly one month, adding to the latest jobs report that indicated historical tightness in the US labour market, and so maintaining the leeway for the Federal Reserve to remain hawkish.But American retail sales fell -0.8% in January from December, reversing December's rise, and worse than market forecasts of a -0.1% fall. It is the biggest decrease in retail sales since March last year, primarily driven by the aftermath of the holiday shopping season and cold weather. Car sales were notably weaker.Business inventories rose, but in relation to sales they remain stable and slightly below historical averages.But they need to be cautious; industrial production edged slightly lower in January from December, missing market expectations of an expansion after recording no change in December. And that meant there was zero change from a year ago. Frigid weather got some of the blame for the January result.But things may be on the improve. Both the Philly Fed's factory survey, and a similar one in New York both recorded sharp improvements in their February surveys.Canadian housing starts came in lower than expected in January, and by quite a bit.Official data in Japan suggests their economy was in recession in the second half of 2023. Japan's GDP unexpectedly shrank -0.1% in Q4 from Q3, missing market forecasts of a +0.3% growth and following a revised -0.8% fall in Q3, flash data showed. That is a big miss for the world's third largest economy. That is their first recession in five years, as private consumption, which accounts for more than half of the economy, declined for the third successive quarter. What is off about this is that the granular data that makes up the result was relatively positive in the period.This Japan retreat was enough to sink it from the world's third largest economy, to #4 behind Germany. But while Japan's nominal economic activity slipped below Germany, the country's growth rate has surpassed that of China for the first time in almost half a century (on a nominal basis).India reported very strong growth in car sales in January, driven in large part by sales in rural communities. In fact, they "smashed" the previous record, up almost +14% year-on-year.The British economy contracted -0.3% in Q4 from Q3-2023, following a -0.1% decline the previous period. That was worse than market forecasts of a -0.1% fall. Their economy entered recession (if you use the two-quarter rule) amid a broad-based decline in output, including in services. This is election year in the UK.The euro zone economy will grow slower than expected in 2024 according to updated forecasts from the European Commission. But they also expect to face reduced inflation pressure.For the first time in two years, the Australian jobless rate has risen above 4%. The actual 4.5% rate means they now have 654,000 people without jobs, the highest level since October 2021. (The headline rate is the 4.1% seasonally adjusted rate.)Australian inflation expectations held unchanged in February at 4.5% in this Melbourne Institute survey. Their central bank would have been disappointed in that.Globally, container shipping freight rates slipped slightly last week but are still unusually high. The risks keeping them high are basically unchanged. Bulk cargo rates are again little-changed, and low.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 4.24% and little-changed from yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$10/oz from yesterday at US$2001/oz.Oil prices are back up +US$1.50 at just over US$78/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is up a bit less to US$82.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at just on 61 USc and little-changed from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are still at 93.8 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 57.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 70.6 and little-changed.The bitcoin price starts today at US$52,232 and another +1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with generally positive news in the US, but extended worries about China's property sector.After quite a jump in the prior week, American mortgage application levels slipped last week and for the first time in six weeks, despite a hefty retreat in benchmark 30 year mortgage interest rates. Those came in at 6.83% plus points, down from 7.07% the prior week, the first time they have been below 7% since early August.All that was despite an impressive rise in American consumer sentiment and optimism in December, as tracked by the respected Conference Board survey. It hasn't been this high since mid-year. This rise mirrors the recent parallel University of Michigan survey. To be fair, both are back in the range from 2021, but there is a rising optimism about future expectations.Perhaps reflecting that, US existing home sales rose in November, and for the first time in five months.Also positive, the American current account deficit shrank to -US$200 bln in Q3-2023, 'only' -2.9% of GDP. That's its lowest level since Q2-2021 in dollar terms and its lowest since pre-GFC. For comparison, the New Zealand current account deficit is -7.6% of our GDP.Australia and New Zealand are not the only countries facing record high immigration; Canada is as well. The post-pandemic surge seems to have caught many countries by surprise.Japan's exports shrank in November when a small gain was expected. Data released today shows they fell -0.2% from the same month a year earlier mainly because China-bound chip shipments dived, underscoring worries that slowing overseas economies may deal another blow to the trade-reliant economy just as their domestic demand slows. At the same time imports dived significantly and that meant their trade deficit shrank rather quickly.Taiwan's export orders didn't bounce back in November as expected, rising just +1% from a year ago and well short of the +4.3% rise expected. But that was their first rise in more than a year.Another large Chinese property developer has filed for bankruptcy in the US, using its protections while it "restructures". (Evergrande was the last major Chinese property developer to try that manoeuver.) Interestingly, it didn't notify investors in stock exchange filings, of the move. This may be behind the chunky drop on the Shanghai stock exchange yesterday. But they aren't the only listed company facing existential pressures.In the EU they are 'reforming' their fiscal rules which have become a straightjacket for some countries. EU finance ministers have bowed to German pressure for tough debt-reduction rules, as part of a deal to phase in a sweeping overhaul of their budget framework. After months of haggling, the new rules gives member states greater independence on debt and deficit plans, but only within tight spending limits demanded by fiscal hawks.German inflation is likely to return to target ranges if their producer prices are any indication. Those remain in deflationary mode, falling -7.9% from a year ago driven primarily by much cheaper energy costs. The sizable retreat is essentially a base effect.British consumer inflation is falling from the same energy cost retreat, now down to +3.9% in the year to November. But without those energy effects, their core inflation is still running at +5.1% - a small retreat but far above its neighbours and far above their central bank's target still. (Locally, they fudge the international standards of reporting inflation, but it is still high on their local basis.)In Australia, the Melbourne Institute leading index has stopped falling which is a good way for them to end their year.The UST 10yr yield has slipped -3 bps today, now at 3.89%.The price of gold will start today down -US$9 at just on US$2034/oz.Oil prices are +50 USc higher at just on US$74.50/bbl in the US although they have been higher in between. The international Brent price is now at US$80/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 62.8 USc and marginally firmer than yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also firmer at 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 57.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 71, up +20 bps from yesterday and the highest since May 23, 2023 - just before the RBNZ's MPS signaled that its rate-hiking cycle was over.The bitcoin price starts today at US$43,770 and up another +3.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate-to-high at just under +/- 3.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.We will be taking a short break from these podcasts. Enjoy your summer holiday break.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again starting on Wednesday after the New Year.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news global interest rates are on the move.The big news is the sharp dive in wholesale benchmark interest rates. And American benchmark mortgage interest rates have fallen below 7% for the first time since August.But first, American jobless claims fell last week and by more than expected, and back to the low end of the range over the past year. There are now less than 1.8 mln people on this support, also a drop from last week but less than expected, but not enough to change the shallow rising trend.As earlier indicators had suggested, the US holiday season retail impulse was good. Now the official retail sales data for November is out and that confirms the earlier data. Value levels were up +4.1% from a year ago, so there has likely been an expanding retail volume too.And you can see the impact of that demand on business inventories, which fell - a small slip from October, true, but one that wasn't expected. From a year ago they were up +0.5% in value terms, so clearly falling in volume terms.In Canada, their housing market sales are retreating, even if the shrinkage is still small.Taiwan's central bank kept its policy rate at 1.875%.In Hong Kong, 38% of people polled said they want to quit the City, mainly because of oppressive 'freedom' restrictions. That was up from a 29% in the same poll a year ago.Overnight the ECB was clear that it will keep its rates at multi-year highs for a long time yet in its battle to get on top of inflation. In contrast to the US Fed signals that softenings are coming in 2024, the ECB was staunch. However Norway's central bank raised its policy rate by +25 bps to 4.5%. But the Swiss National Bank held its rates unchanged, as did the Bank of England which also conveyed a tough line against price pressures. The ECB and English pushbacks had the effect of bolstering their currencies.And staying in Europe, the EU has "unanimously" agreed to open talks with Ukraine to join the bloc.Australian inflation expectations fell from 4.9% in November to 4.5% in December, according to the latest update of the Melbourne Institute survey. At these levels, the RBA will also likely remain staunch in its monetary policy positions, even it it is at its lowest level since early 2022.Although the Aussie jobless rate rose to 3.9% in November, the number of new jobs rose more than expected and most of them were full-time positions. The number of unemployed increased by +18,800 to 572,000. But the labour force rose +61.500 to 14.3 mln of which +57,000 were full-time. Their participation rate edged up.Global container shipping freight rates rose another +4% last week as the world adjusts to the two big canal pressures, mainly on routes out of China. Meanwhile bulk cargo rates remain high but are coming off their early December peak.The UST 10yr yield has fallen sharply in the wake of the Fed meeting, now at 3.93% and down -23 bps from yesterday. And the last time we were at this level was in July. The price of gold will start today just on US$2037/oz and up a very sharp +US$55/oz from this time yesterday.Oil prices are up +US$3/bbl from yesterday at just over US$72.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now up at just on US$77/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 62.2 USc and up a full +1c from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are -¼c lower at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 56.6 euro cents. With falls against the Yen and Pound, that all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 70.3, just +10 bps firmer than yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$42,617 and up +1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

An alarming 60 per cent of eligible Aussies are missing out on valuable energy rebates, new research shows. And the majority are seniors and veterans, according to a survey by Energy Charter and Melbourne University's Melbourne Institute. Today, Compare Club head of research Kate Browne outlines the findings, explains the problem and tells how you can be sure you're taking advantage of all government subsidies.

Dr Jan Kabátek (pictured) from the Melbourne Institute at the University of Melbourne happily climbs on his soapbox to talk about how we could enjoy massive, and important energy savings by making just the smallest of changes to computer systems. Dr Kabátek was among the guests at the recent 2023 Economic and Social Outlook Conference held at Melbourne's Crown Casino. You can learn more about Dr Kabátek from his website. --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/robert-mclean/message

The Reserve Bank to decide on interest rates tomorrow; Melbourne Institute's inflation data goes backwards in October; Anthony Albanese sets the future for Australian trade in Chinese meetings; Jim Chalmers acknowledges infrastructure spending problems; medtech harnesses AI to help patients; The Block winners post a record profit; and Elio D'Amato joins us for the Market Wrap.   Host: Scott Haywood Executive Producer: Tom Storey Technical Producer: Michael Robertson Publisher: Nine RadioSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news mostly about Australia today.The Australian prime minister is in Beijing meeting with President Xi. Trade is the main topic, and that needs improved relations after a period of bilateral tension. These latest meetings bring a notable thaw, ahead of the US-China meetings at the upcoming APEC conference. Xi said China's relationship with Australia is now on "the right path". Albanese pointed out that an improvement will be beneficial for both countries. But Australia is negotiating trade restriction rollbacks that should never have been imposed in the first place. However, Albanese invited Xi to Australia.Back in Australia, ASIC data for October shows company bankruptcies were -16% lower in October 2023 than the same month a year ago. But this is a rare bit of good news on this front because year on year these bankruptcies are running +38% higher.The Melbourne Institute's Monthly Inflation Gauge fell -0.1% in October 2023 after a flat reading in September, showing declining prices for the first time in fourteen months and clouding the outlook for the RBA monetary policy. The annual growth rate also eased to 5.1% in October from 5.7% in September.Later today the Reserve Bank of Australia delivers its monthly monetary policy review and increasing numbers of observers are expecting them to raise its policy rate from the current 4.10% to 4.35%. If they do, parts of Australia will be 'shocked' but they shouldn't be because inflation is rising and their housing markets are becoming sharply less affordable. A rise could give blowback on the NZD and our interest rates, although to be fair some of that will already be priced in. Oh, and there is a horse race in Australia today too.Germany factory orders rose unexpectedly in September. While it wasn't a large rise, a correcting fall was expected after the rather large jump in August. Foreign orders were the driver here, up +4.2%, with new orders from the EU rising +6.2% and orders from the rest of the world rising +2.9%. It is an impressive signal, especially as it is more than just for one month.Also later today, the winner of the 2023 Earthshot prize will be announced in Singapore. So far, more show than substance, but the five winners do take away more than $2 mln as seed money for a major environmental project. So far none of the ten prior winners have gone on to make a global impact, but it is early days yet. Hopefully this initiative isn't an irrelevancy, and more than just grandstanding.The UST 10yr yield is up today from yesterday in a small recovery to 4.65%, a gain of +7 bps. The price of gold will start the week at US$1982/oz and down -US$10/oz from this time yesterday.Oil prices have risen overnight, up about +US$1 to be just over US$81.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now just under US$86/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 59.8 USc and down almost -¼c from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are similarly softer at 92 AUc. Against the euro we are a bit more softer at 55.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on at 69.2, down about -20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$34,946 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday, down a mere -0.1%. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Asia Pacific 'Academy Awards' here II Australian filmmaker Robert Connolly talks to us about the Asia Pacific Screen Awards (APSA), his film Blueback, and a few other things film related.Two pieces of information that came directly from the Economic and Social Outlook Conference on Thursday. This is a conference that is run by the Melbourne Institute in partnership with the Australian. It was held in the Palladian at Crown.First a small morsel about the litigation against Qantas for the ghost flights scandal. Ms Gina Cass-Gottlieb, Chair, Australian Competition and Consumer Commission gave a speech about the ACCC and as she was leaving the stage the MC asked her about the litigation against Qantas this is the exchange:The ACCC & Qantas here II The second was the PM Anthony Albanese talking about the Gaza 'pause' meme and his trip to China:Albanese's Gaza 'Pause' here IIYou Can't Escape an Aussie Boy here II Writer/ actor Shane Palmer and Directo Riley Longworth join us to tell us about their up-coming satire show at The Butterfly Club on 13 - 18 Nov, 7pm. They pose the question 'How do the least qualified persuade others that they are the best to lead?'ticketsColes AGM Under Attack here II Striking Victoiran workers, members of RAFFWU, and community members picketed the Coles AGM calling out sub par working conditions & wages as well as price gouging. Join the RAFFWU campaign at Coles at https://raffwu.org.au/workplaces/supermarkets/coles/This is the week here II Kevin Healy is back on form with a rapier to the week.De-privatising NSW Prisons here II Nicola Jess, President of the Public Service Association NSW, outlines the win that is seeing the NSW Government de-privatising prisons in NSW.

Labor hardens its position on the Israel-Hamas war, warning Israel risks losing the world's support.  Find out more about The Front podcast here. You can read about this story and more on The Australian's website or on The Australian's app. This episode of The Front is presented and produced by Kristen Amiet, and edited by Tiffany Dimmack. Our regular host is Claire Harvey. The multimedia editor is Lia Tsamoglou, and original music is composed by Jasper Leak.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

ASX 200 closed up 7 points to 7410 (-0.1%) in a narrow day of trading, boosted by a lower US inflation rate. Resources mixed after China's manufacturing activity shrank for a fourth month this year. Iron ore miners slightly higher S32 up 0.8%, BHP up 0.5% and RIO up 0.4%. Energy continuing its bull run as Crude Oil has its best month in more than a year. STO up 0.3% and ALD up 1.2% Gold lower again as the USD climbs, NST -0.5% and SLR -20.2%. Banks mostly flat, with the Big Bank Basket up to $182.22 (-0.2%). MQG down 1%. REITS rose slightly. Tech mixed today, The All-Tech Index up 0.3%. SQ2 up 2%, and XRO up 0.1%. In corporate news, LYC gained 2.6% after record quarterly production of neodymium and praseodymium. ORG dropped 0.6% after reporting an 11% drop in revenue. SLR down 20.2% on reports of idling its Sugar zone mining and processing activities in 2024. Quiet on the economic front, the Melbourne Institute's Monthly Inflation Gauge indicated that prices accelerated to 0.8%, rebounding from June's 10-month low of a 0.1% rise. Asian markets gaining as China promises further measures to help out the economy and boost the property sector. Japan up 1.4%, HK up 1.2%, China up 0.3%. Australian bond yields mixed, 10Y yield up 0.4bps to 4.06% and 2Y yield down 0.7bps. Dow Jones futures down 31 points and Nasdaq futures down 20 points.Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.Make life simple. Invest with Marcus Today.

Prof Guay Lim from the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research at the University of Melbourne speaks with Matthew Pantelis about the ‘misery index' and Simon Schrapel, CEO, Uniting Communities says South Australians are struggling.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In December 2020, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research released an in-depth report on poverty in Australia. Based on data from three censuses, the researchers examined the underlying correlations and fluctuations in poverty rates over time. Dr. Maxim Ananyev, one of the co-authors of the report, spoke to SBS Russian about the report and the parameters for defining poverty. - В конце 2020 года сотрудники Мельбурнского института прикладных экономических и социальных исследований выпустили развернутый отчет о бедности в Австралии. На основании данных из трех переписей населения ученые изучили основные корреляции и колебания показателей бедности во времени. Доктор Максим Ананьев, один из соавторов доклада, рассказал SBS Russian об отчете и о параметрах определения бедности.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the long-anticipated weaknesses in the American labour market may now be starting to show. But the signals are still faint.US jobless claims rose last week by +235,000 which a notably higher than we have seen in a while. There are now 1.8 mln people on these benefits, and while that is little-changed, it is the 'shift on' that we should track because these benefits only last a limited amount of time and there are always claimants who max out and are no longer qualified.American producer prices rose +2.7% in the year to March, a sharpish drop from the February +4.9% on the same basis. It was also lower than the +3% expected. More interestingly, the annualised rate of change between February and March was a deflationary -6.0%, a twist no-one saw coming. Core PPI didn't shift as sharply, but it did still record a small deflation of about -1%. These were the biggest month-on-month falls since the pandemic. Maybe somewhat surprisingly, it was services that recorded the biggest shift lower, not goods.In China, overwhelming debt problems have caught up with one southern province. Things are so tight they have had to appeal to Beijing for help - in now-deleted online post. Researchers in landlocked Guizhou province (population 40 mln, so much larger than Australia) surveyed some of the province's most indebted cities and found it ‘impossible' to solve their debt problems at local levels. The relief valve of land sales have dried up completely leaving no revenue to service the legacy debt load. Things are unlikely to work out well for the Party boss and governor of the province.But that might be an extreme isolated issue. China's exports unexpectedly surged in March, driven by solar products, new-energy vehicles and lithium batteries and as supply chain conditions continued to improve from their pandemic paralysis. Exports rose almost +15% year-on-year when a -7% fall was anticipated like in February. It isn't clear why analysts got this so wrong.China's imports however did fall. And with New Zealand they are down -18.7%. Our imports from them (and that includes Teslas from the Shanghai factory and other EVs) are also down in March, but by less. The same data shows that Australian exports to China, and its imports from there, are each up more than +10% in March from a year ago. So perhaps 'being friends' with China isn't a great benefit because being in their bad books, like Australia, isn't hurting them in overall trade.In Australia, the Melbourne Institute's inflation expectations survey shows it dipping from 5.0% in March to 4.6% in their April survey.And Australia added +53,000 new jobs in March, with full-time roles rising +72,000 and the number of part-time roles falling -19,000 in the month. Their jobless rate stayed unchanged at 3.5%. Their participation rate was also unchanged at 66.7%. The continuing strength of their labour market puts more RBA rate rises back on the table as they may have turned dovish too soon.International container freight rates were virtually unchanged this week, maintaining their below-average levels as world trade remains weak, especially out of China. Bulk cargo rates were little-changed as well.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.45%, and up +4 bps. The price of gold is at US$2044/oz and up +US$31 from this time yesterday. That puts it at its highest since August 2020.And oil prices are down -US$1 at just on US$82/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is up to just on US$86/bbl. And perhaps we should also note that natural gas prices are back to very low levels, levels we had prior in the 1990s. Suppression of Russian energy prices may have a lot to do with this.The Kiwi dollar is almost +1c firmer against the USD and now at 63.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are have firmed slightly to 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we have risen more than +½c, now at 57.1 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is at 70.5 and up +60 bps from this time yesterday.The bitcoin price is again little-changed, still at US$30,452 and up a mere +0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained low at +/- 1.4%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Ahead of 2023 NSW state eleciton, SBS Russian spoke to Dr Maxim Ananyev from Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social research. In the podcast, Dr Ananyev explains key differences in state and federal elections. - На этой неделе в штате Новый Южный Уэльс пройдут выборы. Экономист Максим Ананьев объясняет, чем выборы на уровне штата отличаются от федеральных. За какие вопросы отвечает правительство штата? Что важно помнить при выборе своих предпочтений кандидатов? А также — что такое pork barrelling и как партии пользуются уловкой перераспределения ресурсов, чтобы привлекать больше голосов?

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news all eyes today are on the signals to be sent by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Inflation seems to be easing there but the central bank is widely expected to keep its foot firmly on the throat of inflation with another rate rise.But first, American factory orders fell in January, mainly because of weak aircraft orders. This was as expected. But without that category, they rose and by a bit more than the advance reports suggested.In Canada, the Ivey PMI series which is the most widely-watched set there fell back to only a modest expansion in February and this was not expected. It is a far steeper drop than anyone saw coming.South Korea is making progress on the inflation front - probably at the cost of growth. Their February CPI rate fell below an annualised 4% rate and the year on year rate slipped to 4.8%. We get their Q4 GDP growth data later today.China has released its budget and most of the focus has been on the big increase in defense spending. But it also raises its spending to increase its grain reserves in a clear self-sufficiency push amid ongoing concerns over food security.China is also quickly expanding is 5G base station network. It currently has 2.3 mln in place and will add another 600,000 in 2023. The country currently has more than 575 million 5G mobile phone users.EU retail sales were expected to rise +1.0% in January, recovering from a chunky December drop. But in the end the rise was only +0.3% which disappointed market analysts. However, the softness is all about lower levels of fuel and energy sales, which for them may be a good thing.In Australia, the Melbourne Institute's Monthly Inflation Gauge showed prices eased sharply to under 5% at an annualised rate in February from January from almost 11% annualised rate in January from December. This was the sixth straight month of increase in the index, bringing the year-on-year rate to 6.3%, which was the second highest since the series began. For sure, the RBA will have noticed this data ahead of their cash rate target review later today. But another +25 bps rise is baked in now and that will be their tenth in a row and taking their cash rate target to 3.60%.Separately, the Aussie agricultural sector is in for a banner year this year on the back of very favourable La Nina growing conditions. They will produce product worth AU$90 bln in the 2022/23 year, also aided by high global prices. But forecasters expect drier conditions to return soon, so this may be a high mark for some time. Although late this year, their fire season is returning now on the back of some very hot weather.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.98% and a net +2 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will open today at US$1851/oz and down -US$6 since yesterday.And oil prices start today up +50 USc at just under US$80.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now just over US$86/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down -½c at 61.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down marginally at 91.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -½c at 57.9 euro cents. That all takes the TWI-5 down to 70.1 and a retreat of -40 bps.The bitcoin price is little-changed again from this time yesterday, at US$22,523. And volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/-0.7%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the Australian labour market is now shedding jobs in an unexpected development.But first, US jobless claims came in almost exactly as expected at +255,000 last week so there are now 1.95 mln people currently on these benefits. This 'canary' metric isn't yet showing the expected labour market shift to tougher conditions.However, American producer prices rose in January by +6.0% from a year ago, which was a lesser rate than in December but not the pullback markets were expecting. The annualised rate between December and January was at a more than +8% rate however and the most in seven months, so inflation isn't beaten in this data and it maintains pressure on the Fed. Equity markets fell after this data. Bond yields rose.And that is despite a very weak factory survey from the Philly Fed's heartland manufacturing area. It was an unexpectedly sharp and deep retreat with weaker new order levels.American housing starts fell in January from year ago levels and from prior month levels to a 31 month low, but new building consent levels were unchanged from the prior month even if they too are down steeply from a year ago. Both metrics were pretty much in line with what was expected however.Officially, prices for new houses in China fell -1.5% in January from a year ago. But given this market is in the doldrums with few sales (and low demand), it is doubtful this tells the real story. Re-sales are probably harder hit, with official data showing only six of 70 large cities recording prices the same as or higher than the same month last year. This is unusually low for them. A private survey showed that these sales volumes fell -14%.In Hong Kong, their population decline is easing. The city's 7.3 mln population fell by a net -12,900 people in the second half of 2022, down from a decrease of -55,400 in the first six months. The total 2022 decline is less than originally feared, but it is unusual.Australian consumer inflation expectations are proving sticky. The latest Melbourne Institute survey shows them at 5.1% and while this is down from 5.6% in January, it has now been a year where it has oscillated between 5% and 6%.In Australia, their labour market is wavering. It shed workers for the second month in a row in January, in a sign the nine consecutive official rate rises are starting to bite. They were expected to record +20,000 new jobs added but in fact they lost -11,500 jobs. Their unemployment rate rose to 3.7% (from 3.5%), adding 21,900 to the jobless rolls.Aussie tourism has also recovered strongly, quickly. It is now back to 75% of its pre-pandemic levels, and back to full 2015 levels. Kiwis are the largest group visiting. New Zealand is also their largest destination, but that was from where only 17% of all Aussies returned.Global container shipping freight rates edged down again last week to take them -27% lower than the ten year average. Bulk freight rates are in the doldrums too and now threatening all-time lows.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.84% and up +4 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will open today at US$1841/oz and up +US$3 from this time yesterday.And oil prices start today back up +US$1.50 at just on US$79/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now just under US$85.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is unchanged at 62.8 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are softish at 91 AUc. Against the euro we are also softish at 58.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today back at 70.5 and marginally.The bitcoin price is now at US$24,969 and up a very strong +9.6% from this time yesterday. It is pushing towards the US$25,000 / NZ$40,000 levels quickly now which we last had eight months ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been extreme at +/- 5.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and I'll be back again on Wednesday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news markets are pricing much lower yields for NZ Government bonds, partly in response to international market shifts.But first, the turn in US economic fortunes still hasn't shown up in their weekly jobless claims data. They came in low last week and lower than expected. There are now 1.9 mln people on these benefits.But weaker conditions are showing up in more factory data. However the Fed's monthly Beige Book surveys came in less negative than expected, noting "moderate to modest" expansions across the country, in their labour markets, and for prices.The Philadelphia Fed's updated survey stayed slightly negative in January, although less so than for the prior month.American building consent and housing start data were both slightly lower in December, but not significantly so. Essentially they are both settling out at pre-pandemic levels.The latest data on long term investment flows in and out of the US shows larger inflows than were expected in December, and for the year.It is tough being a bear on the US economy.But you are being helped by Republicans in Congress who are refusing to pass a budget resolution. The US Treasury has started its 'extraordinary measures' to keep the US Federal Government from defaulting on its payments. Those are likely to drag on for many months yet in response to their pathetic game of chicken.In Japan, exports rose more than expected in December, and imports rose less than expected. But they still ran a record high trade deficit, which is an historically unusual position for them.The ECB says inflation in Europe is still way too high. They signaled they are determined to push rates into restrictive territory “for long enough” to return inflation to their 2% target.In Australia, consumer inflation expectations in rose to 5.6% this month from 5.2% in December, though a general moderation in expectations has been evident in recent months as consumers appear to be responding to higher interest rates, according to the Melbourne Institute who do this survey.And staying in Australia, the December labour market data was a minor disappointment - mainly because November data was revised lower. Full time employment rose +17,000 when +34,000 was expected. Part-time positions retreated -32,000 when they were expected to expand +25,000. Most analysts seem to think the December hesitation is a 'one-off'.Container shipping costs were virtually unchanged last week, although bulk cargo freight rates continued they sharp falls and are back at or below their long term averages, which given inflation, makes them very cheap again.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.42%, and up +3 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will open today at US$1921/oz and up +US$15.And oil prices start today little-changed at just over US$81/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$86.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar has softened overnight, now at 63.9 USc and down -½c. Against the Australian dollar we are little-changed at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -¾c at 59 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 71, and down -50 bps since this time yesterday.The bitcoin price is stable now at US$20,939 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 0.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news Australia is opening its doors wider to immigrants to address sharp skills demand.But first, a reminder that the US is on a long holiday weekend, MLK Day, and financial markets are closed there today.In Canada, the final data for 2022 shows house prices there fell the most on record for any year, down -12%. Their average dwelling price is now C$626,400 (NZ$732,300). Sales volumes there fell -39%. The New Zealand REINZ December data will be released here tomorrow morning.And staying in Canada, business sentiment continued to weaken in the fourth quarter and sales grew slower as their downturn bites according to a central bank survey. But firms there still only expect a mild retreat with inflation staying higher for longer.In Japan, the inflation pressure is still building. Their producer prices surged +10.2% year-on-year in December, exceeding market expectations for a +9.5% rise as high global commodity prices and a historically weak yen continued to inflate costs for imported raw materials. December's producer inflation also accelerated from an upwardly revised +9.7% price growth in November to the highest in three months. The November to December rate was at an annualised pace of +6.0%, so that suggests a possible easing is at hand.Japanese machine tool orders rose unexpectedly in December. They slumped -7.7% in November from a year ago and were expected to be -4% lower in December. But in the end they rose +1.0% from a year ago, and were up +4.8% from November.In China, new home prices in their 70 major cities dropped by -1.5% year-on-year in December according to official data, after a -1.6% drop in the previous month which was the steepest pace since August 2015. All this comes amid a property downturn due to a mounting debt problems among developers as well as the impact of a surge in pandemic cases. 55 of the 70 large cities monitored posted month-on-month declines, and those that didn't recorded just tiny rises in this official survey. There are reasons to believe the actual retreats in home resales are much larger; 63 of these 70 cities reported decreases in December.China is finding it very tough to restart its property development industry. Almost 80% of residential developments remain idle or have only partially restarted despite multiple government initiatives supporting the sector. "More debt" can't overcome buyer reluctance.In Europe, retail commissions are banned in both the Netherlands and the UK where they are regarded as a serious conflict of interest by "independent agents" who sell financial products from insurers and banks. Those bans have enabled consumers to realise cost reductions about one third. But insurers and banks are fighting back. They have won the support of the German finance minister who is worried it might hurt German insurers. He is concerned because the EU has suggested the benefits to consumers should probably apply EU wide.In Australia, the Melbourne Institute's Monthly Inflation Gauge showed prices eased to a four-month low of just +0.2% in December from November, slowing sharply from a +1.0% rise in the previous month while marking the fourth straight month of increase. On a year-on-year basis, this measure is still recording a +7.3% rate, but the lower month-on-month result should give the RBA some comfort.And the Australian Treasurer said they now expect 2023 immigration to be much higher than the +235,000 they originally forecast for the year. They are moving decisively to address their skill shortage. At the same ratio, that would be equivalent to New Zealand welcoming +60,000 new migrants, which is double what we actually expect here this year.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.50%, and unchanged from yesterday. The price of gold will open today at US$1921/oz and little-changed.And oil prices start today down -US$1 at just under US$79/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$84/bbl. Natural gas prices are falling now, down to levels last seen in September 2021. Full stocks in China are forcing importers to divert February and March shipments to Europe. Gas storage across Europe is about 82% capacity, up from 50% a year ago and well above the five-year seasonal norm of 70%.The Kiwi dollar has changed little, now at 63.9 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are firmish at 91.8 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 59 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 70.9, and up +20 bps since this time yesterday.The bitcoin price is on the move higher, now at US$20,997 and up +0.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just +/- 1.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we will do this tomorrow.

Professor Mark Wooden from the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research and Burgernomics host, Ross MacDowell discuss working from home, hybrid working and the Great Resignation. Does productivity increase or decrease when working from home? Is hybrid working a temporary post COVID phenomenon? Will employees be forced back to offices when unemployment rises back to average levels and employees loose their current bargaining power? Have we seen the irreversible decline of central business districts? What are the advantages and disadvantages for both employees and employers of working from home? As social animals, do humans need the socialisation the workplace offers? What are the mental health issues resulting from hybrid working? Is the Great Resignation a myth as the statistics suggest? Want To Dig Deeper? 2022 HILDA Statistical Report. How Australian households changed as we managed the emerging pandemic. https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/hilda/publications/hilda-statistical-reports Read Professor Mark Wooden's article in The Conversation on why home working boosts women's job satisfaction more than men. https://theconversation.com/hilda-finds-working-from-home-boosts-womens-job-satisfaction-more-than-mens-and-that-has-a-downside-195641

In the latest Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia poll, 33.1% of Melburnians said they feel "much worse off" after the pandemic. But Deputy Director of the Melbourne Institute and of the HILDA Survey program, Roger Wilkins, says there was an unexpected benefit to come from the pandemic.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Andrea Demuru, sta conseguendo una laurea in Major Networking al Melbourne Institute of Technology, grazie alla quale spera di poter fare domanda per uno Skilled Nominated Visa.

Australia's Treasurer, Dr Jim Chalmers (pictured), had little to say about the climate crisis during a presentation he gave to the annual Outlook Conference in Melbourne on November 2. But of course, his address was tailored to his audience, with many of the 200 or so people there being either economists or academics whose prevailing interest focused on money matters. The Treasurer's address covered all the expected "motherhood" statements about his recent Budget being fair, giving everyone a go, responsive to the prevailing world conditions and, of course, responsible. The Melbourne conference, which was celebrating its 20th year, is the work of The Australian Newspaper and The Melbourne Institute from the University of Melbourne. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/robert-mclean/message

28.10.22“What Happens Next?”Can We Save Endangered Languages? | 71 Soon after the first British ships arrived in Australia, Indigenous people were removed from their traditional lands and families, and were discouraged – often violently – from dancing, singing, or even speaking in their own languages. In a new episode of Monash University's podcast, “What Happens Next?”, Dr Susan Carland's guests discuss how the languages of the most ancient continual civilisation on Earth are being preserved or revived in the face of tremendous odds. Inala Cooper, Director of Murrup Barak, the Melbourne Institute for Indigenous Development at the University of Melbourne, discusses the importance of language for young First Nations activists, and the ways new technologies are reintroducing local languages back to Australia. Associate Professor Dr John Bradley, Acting Director of the Monash Indigenous Studies Centre, is a co-creator of Wunungu Awara, an interdisciplinary effort to preserve First Nations stories, songs and cultures. He talks about ownership of languages, and what it means to “grow ears”. Finally, Karen Yin, creator of “Conscious Style Guide”, helps listeners understand how we can create a more inclusive society by listening to the preferences of and boundaries set by marginalised communities. Grow ears and settle in for a new episode of “What Happens Next?”. A full transcript of this episode is available on Monash Lens. Learn more: Wunungu Awara: Celebrating and saving Indigenous Australian stories through film Preserving Indigenous languages Mental health and wellbeing: Listening to young Indigenous people in Narrm  A Voice to Parliament 50 Words Project The free Conscious Language newsletter “What Happens Next?” will be back next week with a new topic. If you're enjoying the show, don't forget to subscribe, or rate or review “What Happens Next?”  to help listeners like yourself discover it.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

21.10.22What Happens Next?What Do We Lose When Languages Die? | 70 When we travel through Europe, we expect to experience a wide array of culture and customs – in each country, different foods, different views, and different languages. That's not the expectation visitors to Australia have, but perhaps they should. Before British colonisation, this land was home to nearly 300 distinct Indigenous languages. But frontier violence, years of harmful policies, and entrenched, systemic racism against the Traditional Owners of the land stamped many of those languages out entirely, and those remaining have struggled to survive, spoken in secret or kept alive only in the memories of Elders. Today, just 10 Indigenous Australian languages are considered strong. In a new episode of Monash University's podcast, “What Happens Next?”, linguists and Indigenous human rights advocates discuss how we lost these languages, what it means when a language is sleeping, and the lengths communities are going to to wake them up again. Host Dr Susan Carland is joined this week by Associate Professor John Bradley, Acting Deputy Director of Monash University's Indigenous Studies Centre; Associate Professor Alice Gaby, Deputy Chair of the Board of Living Languages; and Monash alumna Inala Cooper, Director of Murrup Barak, the Melbourne Institute for Indigenous Development at the University of Melbourne. A full transcript of this episode is available on Monash Lens. Learn more: Saving language: The power of ancient Indigenous oral traditions Our history, our nation: Why the National Archives must be preserved The Uluru Statement from the Heart Directory of language apps “What Happens Next?” will be back next week with part two of this series, “Can We Save Endangered Languages?”. If you're enjoying the show, don't forget to subscribe, or rate or review “What Happens Next?”  to help listeners like yourself discover it.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news of China stumbling and central banks fiercely focused on controlling high inflation, the chances of a global recession in 2023 seem to be building.But last week only +156,000 Americans made jobless claims, taking the total number on these benefits to just 1.275 mln, an historic low. Whatever else might be going on, the Americans have a very tight labour market still.And American retail sales rose more than expected in August from July, and bouncing back from the disappointing prior month. These sales are now +10.4% higher than year-ago levels, so more than keeping up with inflation.However there were two regional Fed surveys out overnight and neither were especially positive. The Philly Fed one for September was the weakest, with new order levels no longer driving an expansion. The New York Empire State one came back from a deep August retreat with a small rise in new orders. Neither noted that businesses see a positive outlook.In fact the Fed's national monitoring of industrial production reported a small retreat in August, one that wasn't expected. This activity is up +3.7% for the year, but to be fair the main weakness is in mining activity. Consumer goods production is lackluster. But production of business goods remains quite strong, except perhaps for construction activity.It looks like a deal has been reached in the nationwide rail labour dispute, one that should avoid strike action. That has been a big threat hovering over near-term economic activity.In China, their seven largest banks dropped term deposit rates in coordination. It was their first decrease in seven years and strongly hints at fast-weakening loan demand, probably led by mortgage demand. But with many economists now forecasting 2022 Chinese growth to be only about +3%, business loan demand is likely much lower too.And China has again deferred tax payments for SMEs, the third time in 12 months they have taken this emergency action.Japan ran its biggest single-month trade deficit on record in August as imports surged on high energy costs and a slump in the yen, exposing the economy's vulnerability to external price pressures. Imports rose +50% in a year driven almost exclusively by energy imports. Their cost in yen ballooned because the value of the yen fell. Exports rose +22%.In Australia, the Melbourne Institute survey of year-ahead consumer inflation expectations fell to 5.4% in August from 5.9% in July.Australia reported its August labour market data yesterday and that showed a good +59,000 expansion in full-time jobs, and a fall in part-time jobs. The AUD firmed. It also showed a small rise in their jobless rate to 3.5%. A new study by the World Bank says a recession is possible next year if monetary tightening and the focus on beating inflation remains the goal of central banks.Container shipping costs are falling even faster now, down -8% from last week alone to be now -50% lower than year-ago levels, which were admittedly high. The key Shanghai-Los Angeles rates are collapsing, down -11% last week alone and are down by two thirds from year-ago levels. Against the grain, shipping rates for bulk cargoes are rising recently, although they are only back to pre-pandemic levels.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.46% and up +5 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will open today at US$1665/oz and dropping -US$32 from this time yesterday. That is a 2 year low.And oil prices start today -US$4 lower at just on US$85/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just on US$90.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today at just on 59.8 USc and nearly -½c lower than this time yesterday. For the week it has been a -1.2% devaluation. Since the start of the month a -2½% devaluation. And since the start of 2022 the devaluation has been -12½%. Against the Australian dollar we are marginally lower than yesterday at 89 AUc. Against the euro we are lower at 59.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69.5 and a new two year low.The bitcoin price is now at US$19,833 and another -1.4% fall from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news bond curves are steepening again as progress in the fight against inflation shows some promise.American producer prices actually fell in July from June, an unexpected dip. There are now +9.8% higher than the same month a year ago, and that is much less than the +11.3% rise recorded in June. This is more evidence the current inflationary surge has topped out. The July dip in their PPI is their first in more than 2 years.American petrol prices have fallen again, now below US$4/gallon on a national basis for the first time since March. It follows effective action from the federal administration. These falls are now showing up in both consumer price monitoring as well as today's producer price data.US jobless claims rose to +204,000 last week (actual) and there are still only 1.454 mln people on these benefits, unchanged in a week and still near a record low. But note that the seasonally-adjusted rise was to +262,000 last week, so other media are reporting this is a nine-month high.In a sign that recession fears may be waning, American high-yield bond funds are attracting heavy investments, a turnaround from the selloffs of the first half of this year. Investors are essentially betting that the Fed will limit future interest rate hikes to try to avert an economic slowdown. But one prominent Fed voter, Mary Daly, is saying it is too early to declare victory against inflation's pressures.The Mexican central bank has pushed through a +75 bps official interest rate increase to 8.5% in the face of 8.2% inflation. Their new policy rate is their highest ever.But it is conservative compared with Argentina's new rate, up +950 bps to 69.5% where they are battling inflation running at over +5.3% per month, 64% per year.Turkey is also battling very high inflation with theirs running at +80% still, in their case partly cause by running an excessively low policy interest rate of just 14%.In China, passenger car sales surged 30% in July from a year earlier to 2.42 million units in the month, extending a recovery that began in June with the help of eased COVID curbs and government incentives. Sales of new energy vehicles, which include pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles, accounted for much of the recovery. China's car market is the world's largest.Reflecting an uptick in Chinese industry, the price of copper is back rising again and is at a six week high.The Singapore economy grew by +4.4% on a year-on-year basis in the second quarter, faster than the +3.8% growth recorded in the first quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted basis however, their economy contracted slightly by -0.2%, a reversal from the +0.8% expansion in the March quarter.Inflation expectations in Australia are slipping. The respected Melbourne Institute's August survey pegs the one year expectation at 5.9% now, down from 6.3% in July and 6.7% in June (which was a 14 year high).And staying in Australia, regulator ASIC says "there are limited protections for crypto-asset investments given they have become increasingly mainstream and are heavily advertised and promoted. There is a strong case for regulation of crypto-assets to better protect investors." ASIC is Australia's integrated corporate, markets, financial services and consumer credit regulator.Global container shipping freight rates fell faster last week, down -3% in a week, and the 24th consecutive weekly decrease. These freight rates have now dropped by -32% when compared with the same week last year. The rates to and from China are falling the fastest. Bulk cargo rates are lowish and stable. Tanker rates are rising.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 2.88% and +10 bps higher than this time yesterday. The price of gold will open today at US$1789/oz which is down -US$7/oz from this time yesterday.And oil prices start up +US$2.50bbl from this time yesterday at just under US$94/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$99/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today at 64.3 USc which is holding yesterday's jump. Against the Australian dollar we are holding higher at 90.5 AUc. Against the euro we still up at 62.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just on 72.3, our highest in more than three months. A higher exchange rate will help in our fight against imported inflation.The bitcoin price is essentially unchanged from this time yesterday at US$24,332. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/-3.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

On this episode of The Grapevine, Kulja and Dylan get on the line with Inala Cooper, director of Murrup Barak, The Melbourne Institute for Indigenous Development at Melbourne Uni, to talk about her essay for the National Interest Marrul: Aboriginal Identity and The Fight For Rights.And executive director at Refugee Legal, David Manne, steps into the studio to talk about the new Federal Government's refugee policy which could mean reforms to the Administrative Appeals Tribunal. Legal representatives for refugees and asylum seekers have identified the tribunal as a deeply problematic system, with appeals to protection visa refusals blowing out to up to three years.

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the United States and European countries have imposed harsh sanctions against Russia in an attempt to force the country to halt its attacks and withdraw its troops. Russian citizens are already experiencing economic difficulties, including losing their jobs and businesses. Supporters of the sanctions contend that President Vladimir Putin is to blame for this. Could economic losses impact Russian politics and compel the government to reconsider its course? Research Fellow Maxim Ananyev from the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research explains. Original Article: https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/03/24/a-crisis-of-trust

Insurance premiums are increasing with the frequency of climate induced natural disasters. The government is planning a reinsurance pool of $10 billion in the hope of making premiums cheaper. But this may not work as Antonia Settle from the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economics and Social Research explains.

Insurance premiums are increasing with the frequency of climate induced natural disasters. The government is planning a reinsurance pool of $10 billion in the hope of making premiums cheaper. But this may not work as Antonia Settle from the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economics and Social Research explains.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news Russia's invasion of Ukraine deepens, as does the resistance. The IMF is bolstering Ukraine's finances. The US is proving substantial aide too. Talk is surfacing on how Russia will be expected to make reparations when the conflict is over. Damage tops US$100 bln so far. Peace talks are non-starters so far.Elsewhere, US jobless claims rose last week to 218,000 claiming these benefits. That was marginally above what was expected even if these are back to pre-pandemic levels. There are now just over 1.9 mln people on jobless benefits and still close to 40 year lows.Going the other way, American consumer inflation is at a 40 year high. In February, the headline rate rose to 7.9% which was what analysts were anticipating. Core inflation, without food or energy, was up to 6.4%, also as expected, but showing how embedded inflation has become in the US. Rents were up +4.7% in the February year, clothing up +6.6%. Food was up 7.9%. But of course the main driver is fuel costs. Again, it is medical costs that lag, up only 2.5%. Despite all this, the flow-though of the Ukraine war came after this data release. March data will be shocking, no doubt. Equity markets fell on this data, which is a bit surprising given it was what was expected. The ECB announcement might have also contributed. But all this cements in a substantial Fed response next week, which markets assume they won't like.Later this morning we will get the US Federal Government budget out-turn for February and a small -$50 bln deficit is expected and at that level one of the smallest post-pandemic results. And perhaps an all-time low deficit for a February. The very much better management of the US economy is also showing up in their household balance sheets. Household net worth rose to more than US$150 tln in Q4-2021 with one of their biggest quarterly rises ever outside the pandemic recovery.Better, American home ownership rates are rising according to a new report, especially for middle-class families. Housing assets now exceeds US$50 tln , but it is American households exposure to the equity and bond markets that dominate, now at US$118 tln.Meanwhile in Japan, producer prices rose +9.3% year-on-year through to February 2022, the highest rise there in nearly 40 years.China's economy might be in the doldrums, but that is not because they aren't shoveling out more bank debt. In fact new yuan loans rose at an astonishing rate in January, almost ¥4 tln in January alone and well higher than what was expected. It was an all-time record and three times the December rise. It is a pity for them that it isn't having more of an effect on economic activity - or perhaps it is, helping them to just tread water. You wouldn't think that they could just keep doing this however, just to stop going backwards. Beijing is in meeting mode at present, so bravado is high. But they seem in some trouble economically.South Korea as a new president, a conservative who says he will be less conciliatory to China and North Korea (and presumably Japan with whom South Korea has many grievances).At the overnight ECB policy review they surprisingly speed up their asset purchase schedule for the coming months and signaling their APP could end in Q3-2022 if the medium-term inflation outlook doesn't weaken. Monthly net purchases will now scale back to €20 bln in June, a sharpish and unexpected pace. Equity markets dived on this news.The Turkish currency is falling again, weakened not only by the Ukraine war but by no change in their dopey monetary policies. And there is no respite for the Russian ruble still worth less than 1 NZc.Globally, there have been widespread moves to ease up on border controls, and that is expected to benefit passenger air travel. Prior to this trend, there were 'good' signs that this industry was moving out of its extreme hibernation with January passenger activity rising strongly on a year-on-year basis. Domestic markets in China and India are the only ones anywhere that now show no sharp recovery.The Ukraine war is making shipping costs more expensive, especially for bulk cargoes. But although is remains unusually expensive, at least the wheat price is off its highs. A pullback from unusual highs for rice, soybean and corn is underway too, even if it is small at this stage. The implications of these high grain prices on animal feed costs for non-pasture farmers is extreme.RBA's Governor Lowe may be the only one thinking he can be 'patient' and not move against inflation yet. The latest Melbourne Institute survey of inflation expectations has them up to 4.9% in one year, the highest for this survey since 2013, a survey that goes back to 1995. The UST 10yr yield opens today at 2.01% and another +9 bps rise from this time yesterday. It last touched 2.0% in July 2019 - on the way down. The price of gold starts today at US$1997/oz and down -US$4/oz from this time yesterday.And oil prices are sharply lower again today and down by -US$7.50/bbl. In the US they are now just under US$106.50/bbl. The international price is just under US$110.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today a little firmer at just over 68.6 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are at 93.4 AUc which is slightly lower. Against the euro we +½c higher at 62.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 73.7 and +40 bps higher than this time yesterday.The bitcoin price is down sharply today, down -7.8% from this time yesterday to US$38,981. Yesterday's relief rally didn't last long. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high at +/- 4.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Interview with Dr Maxim Ananyev, a Research Fellow, Data Science/Data Analyst of Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research. - В третий пакет санкций с начала вторжения российской армии в Украину вошли парализация активов Центробанка и отключение от платежной системы SWIFT ряда финансовых организаций. О последствиях этого раунда санкций мы поговорили с Максимом Ананьевым, научным сотрудником Мельбурнского института прикладных экономических и социальных исследований Мельбурнского университета.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news Wall Street is rallying today as the bond sell-off hits a pause.But first, the Omicron wave is biting into American jobs now. Last week should have seen a large seasonal fall in jobless claims but the actual fall was less than expected. It decreased by an actual -83,000 when -139,000 fall in jobless claims was expected. Now just over 2 mln people are on these benefits. Most other news reports will focus on a rise in the seasonally adjusted number, but there isn't in fact any rise, only a lesser than-expected fall. To say jobless claims 'rose' misrepresents what actually happened.But there was a real fall in existing home sales in December, driven by a record low availability of houses for sale - just 910,000 in the whole country and an unprecedented level. As a consequence, prices rose to a median of US$358,000 (NZ$526,000) a record, and completing ten straight years of year-on-year price increases. But the expectation is growing that sharpish mortgage rate rises will quell some of this. 30% of their home sales are to first home buyers.Meanwhile, new housing starts rose more than expected to an annualised rate of just over 1.7 mln in December, the highest since March and beating market forecast of 1.65 mln Housing demand remains strong although high prices for building materials, (especially timber) supply constraints and labour shortages persist and are weighing on construction times. But that is not stopping a very high level of building permit applications.And the closely-watched Philly Fed factory survey covering an important manufacturing heartland, came in very positive, and up in January from December. Cost and price pressure remains very elevated however.All this data is emphasising the fact that American public policy settings are supporting a very broad-based expansion now, and are very much more professional than compared to the previous Administration. They seem on to it in their first year.Japan's exports rose to a record high in December, up more than forecast. Import growth remain high but is declining. As a consequence their trade deficit shrank in December. Japan runs a big trade surplus with New Zealand and big trade deficit with Australia.Taiwan's export orders remained very strong in December, beating estimates and capping an impressive year.But the cost of shipping all this trade in containers isn't declining, rather staying at very high levels and actually rose again last week. That said, the cost of shipping bulk cargoes continues to slide and is back to year-ago levels - in fact back to 'normal' levels we have seen over the past 35 years.China's central bank has stepped in to support a slowing economy that has been weighed down by a slump in the property market during a politically important year for leader Xi Jinping. It has trimmed its housing loan prime rates by -5 bps from the one year, and -10 bps from the official five year benchmark rate. (See charts at the bottom of this page.) But this latest timid cut is more about cushioning impacts of the slowdown than turning anything around. Economic sights are being set lower.In Australia, the world's first ship carrier of liquefied hydrogen has arrived at Victoria's Port of Hastings to pick up its inaugural cargo and transport it to Japan, marking a major milestone for the emerging industry.Meanwhile, the Australian jobless rate fell in December to 4.2% from 4.6%, aided by +65,000 more employed, +42,000 of them full time. But they didn't get their expected improvement in their participation rate.And in what might be seen as an odd outcome, the Melbourne Institute is reporting their survey of consumer inflation expectations fell from +4.8% in December 2021 to +4.4% in January 2022.The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.84% and unchanged from this time yesterday. The price of gold starts today at US$1841/oz and a mere +US$1 higher.And oil prices start unchanged at just under US$86.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$88.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today little-changed at 67.9 USc. But against the Australian dollar we are -½c lower at 93.5 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 59.9 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts the today at 72.2 and despite the Aussie move, little-changed since this time yesterday.The bitcoin price has moved up today, this time by +3.2% to US$43,285. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at +/- 2.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

The Motherhood Penalty in Australia is staggering, but it's not beyond our imagination to change this. Georgie Dent co-hosts the podcast this week, to explain more on the more than $800,000 penalty working mothers face in Australia, why childcare and parental leave could transform Australia, and the campaign pushing to change that through The Parenthood. In more research, we look into the latest HILDA data just released, highlighting all the additional unpaid hours of work women are putting in, as well as some curious other trends including why young women are staying home longer, and how men and women are having less children than they thought they would. Plus, we highlight the rise of (mostly female) independents who look set to change everything we know about politics, and how Mackenzie Scott became the world's most powerful woman, according to Forbes. Our guest is Dr Esperanza Vera-Toscano, economist and senior research fellow at the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, and an author of the latest Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) report. Esperanza is interviewed by Women's Agenda journalist Madeline Hislop. Thanks to our podcast supporter Superhero, we also share the FINHACK that will save Christmas and teach you a few things about those individuals you've spent years buying gifts for Stories discussed in this episode include: Former journalist Zoe Daniel to run as an independent against Liberal MP Tim WilsonMacKenzie Scott tops Forbes' 2021 most powerful women listThe motherhood penalty costs the average working woman in Australia $876K: New reportHILDA survey reveals women still do almost double the unpaid work of menHILDA shows the changing face of 21st century AustraliaThe Women's Agenda podcast is produced by Agenda Media, the 100% female-run and owned publisher of Women's Agenda. You can check out our other podcast, The Leadership Lessons and the Women's Health Project. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

In a post-pandemic recovery, we might expect financial stress to lessen. But the highest level of financial stress, beyond just making ends meet, has been increasing in recent months for families with young children. The Money explores new research from the Melbourne Institute. Plus, the effects of the pandemic on financial equality - Gen Z women are falling behind. And, are tighter lending restrictions cooling Australia's housing market?Guests:Abigail Payne, Director and Ronald Henderson Professor, Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, University of MelbourneBianca Hartge-Hazelman, founder, Financy Women's IndexEliza Owen, Head of Residential Research Australia, CoreLogic

In a post-pandemic recovery, we might expect financial stress to lessen. But the highest level of financial stress, beyond just making ends meet, has been increasing in recent months for families with young children. The Money explores new research from the Melbourne Institute. Plus, the effects of the pandemic on financial equality - Gen Z women are falling behind. And, are tighter lending restrictions cooling Australia's housing market? Guests: Abigail Payne, Director and Ronald Henderson Professor, Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, University of Melbourne Bianca Hartge-Hazelman, founder, Financy Women's Index Eliza Owen, Head of Residential Research Australia, CoreLogic

Concerns about the safety and efficiency of the COVID-19 vaccine remain the top reason for Australian adults not getting ‘the jab', according to the Melbourne Institute's Taking the Pulse of the Nation survey. Results show 14 per cent are still unwilling to get vaccinated and 10 per cent are undecided. This is despite NSW grappling with a rising number of cases, Victoria going into its sixth lockdown, and the rest of Australia undergoing various restrictions to contain the spread of the virus. The post One in four remain hesitant about the COVID-19 vaccine appeared first on Mitchell's Front Page.

Vol 215, Issue 1: 5 July 2021. Professor Jennifer May is Director of the Department of Rural Health at the University of Newcastle. Professor Anthony Scott is a health economist at the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research. They discuss the many layers and stakeholders involved in solving the problems of Australia's maldistributed rural medical workforce. With MJA news and online editor, Cate Swannell.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news of more indications price rises are spreading.But first in the US, they reported a good reduction in the number of jobless claims for last week, even less than the decline expected. There are now 3.7 mln people on these benefits and back to a similar level a year ago, just as the pandemic was threatening to bite. But it is still twice as high as the pre-pandemic levels.And staying in the US, producer prices are up +6.2% in April from a year ago, a sharp rise from the already-high +4.2% gain they reported for March. Prices are rising fast, in ways that seem temporary, yet this could change expectations in ways that are self-reinforcing.Consumer prices are getting no respite in the US following the oil pipeline hack there. Temporary sure, but it is feeding rising price expectations. Still, Fed officials don't see the pressures embedding.There was another big US Treasury bond issue today, this time for US$44 bln for their 30 year maturity. US$14 bln was allocated to the US Fed. The median yield was 2.315% compared to the same issue a month ago at 2.23% pa. This one wasn't quite as popular with 'only' US$74 bln being bidIn Canada, they reported their producer price data for April as well, and it was up an eye-watering +14% from a year ago. That leap is their largest in more than 40 years and was driven primarily by lumber prices, itself driven by housebuilding demand in the US. Dairy, meat and fish prices also rose sharply but nothing like the timber prices.In China, foreign direct investment rose +39% in the year to April, but that is a leveling off of the +44% rate in the year to March.The iron ore price is taking a breather, falling from US$230/tonne yesterday to US$218/tonne today. Obviously it can't keep rising at the vertical rate track it has been on. Copper is showing the same sign.In Australia, the expectations for inflation are quite different, and no-one sees it on the horizon. The RBA survey of economists see it at +1.7% in a year. The same survey of union officials pegs it at just +1.5%. The Melbourne Institute consumer survey has it up at +3.2% but that is unchanged from a year ago. Current CPI inflation in Australia is +1.1% pa.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 1.67% and down -1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold starts today virtually unchanged at US$1823/oz.Oil prices start today up almost giving up all of yesterday's rise, and more, down -US$3 at just over US$63.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is just under US$67/bbl.The Kiwi dollar opens today stable at 71.7 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are back up to 93 AUc. Against the euro we are marginally firmer at 59.4 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at 73.6.The bitcoin price is now at US$48,183 and a huge -12.3% lower than this time yesterday. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been a extreme +/- 9.6%. You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday.

We constantly receive mixed messages about the housing market in Australia... one day everything is booming, and the next we're supposedly headed for bust. But no matter where you live in this country one thing is for sure, buying your first home can feel virtually impossible amid a minefield of dodgy agents, underquoting, and an astonishing amount of paperwork and expense. The Quicky speaks to a couple of experts and two current buyers to find out what is really going on, and how you might be able to finally secure the keys to your own place. Subscribe to The Quicky at... https://mamamia.com.au/the-quicky/ CREDITS  Host/Producer: Claire Murphy Executive Producer: Siobhán Moran-McFarlane Audio Producer: Ian Camilleri Guests: Associate Professor Sam Tsiaplias - Principal Research Fellow in the Macroeconomics Research Program, at the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Tony Bice - Director of First Choice Mortgage Brokers Bridgette Bathgate - Digital Marketing Specialist at Mamamia who is currently looking to purchase her first home Gemma Bath - Senior News Writer at Mamamia who has just purchased her first home CONTACT US Got a topic you'd like us to cover? Send us an email at thequicky@mamamia.com.au Mamamia acknowledges the Traditional Owners of the Land we have recorded this podcast on, the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation. We pay our respects to their Elders past and present and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cultures. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's been a quite year. At the end of it, Australia, through a combination of geography, our health system, and massive injections of cash from the government isn't going too badly. There has even been surprising growth in some sectors like electronics manufacturing, as companies bring production back home. Plus, there's new research showing high levels of financial stress amongst full time workers especially workers in poorer areas – is the pandemic recession making poverty worse?Guests:Serena Ross, CEO, CircuitwiseProfessor Abigail Payne, Director, Melbourne Institute, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social ResearchRichard Yetsenga, Chief Economist, ANZ ResearchKelly Fawcett, Research and Policy Lead, Foundation for Young Australians Martinique, university graduate

New research just out from the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research finds that the employment rate of young people dropped by 20% since the pandemic hit. That's a four times greater drop than the rest of the workforce.

Income inequity across Australia has reduced as an unexpected outcome of government stimulus measures in response to COVID-19. Plus, as more and more people continue to dump private health insurance – what can be done to improve the sector and the overall efficiency of the health system?Guests:Professor Brenton Prosser, Director of the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM)Professor Yuting Zhang, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic & Social Research, University of MelbourneJennifer Doggert, Editor at Croakey, health policy analyst, Centre for Policy Development Alison, on attitudes to private health insurance

In Episode 33 on The Millionaire Student Show, Sashin Govender dissects the Pain (Past), Price (Journey) and Prize (Result) of Dr John Demartini who travels 360 days a year to countries all over the globe where he shares his research and findings in all markets and sectors. He has presented programs at 30+ education institutions such as Harvard, New York University, University of Venezuela, Melbourne Institute of Technology to name a few. He is the founder of The Demartini Institute.   ABOUT DR JOHN DEMARTINI : Dr John Demartini was born in Houston, Texas. From an early age he wore hand and leg braces to correct a birth defect. At school he had difficulty reading, writing and speaking which was later diagnosed as dyslexia and a speech impediment. In first grade, his teacher announced to his parents that he would never read, write, communicate, never amount to anything, nor go very far in life. At 17 he had a near death experience. These early challenges set the scene for a remarkable transformation in his late teens. He made a commitment to dedicate his life to the understanding of universal laws as they relate to maximizing human awareness and potential. With focus and determined effort, he broke through his dyslexia and mastered reading and writing. He is considered one of the world's leading authorities on human Behavioral Specialist and personal development due to his extensive studies in theology and sociology allows him a unique adaptability across all cultures. He has studied over 30,000 books across all the defined academic disciplines and has synthesized the wisdom of the ages which he shares on stage in over 100 countries. He has studied over 299 academic disciplines throughout the past 47 years. Revolving around maximizing human awareness, potential and leadership. He has then synthesised these teachings and interwoven them with his work on human values. His trademarked methodologies in human development, the Demartini Method and the Demartini Value Determination are culminations of over 47 years of cross-disciplinary research and study and utilized in all human development industries across the world. He is also the author of 40 books published in 29 different languages, and has produced over 60 CDs and DVDs. His work has been referenced in over 170 books. Globally he has been interviewed on over 2,500 radio and television talk shows and he has been featured in various national and international film documentaries and movies including The Secret and The Opus.   CLAIM YOUR FREE GIFT FROM DR JOHN Free $50 gift of an inspired presentation by Dr Demartini with profound insights and a deep sense of life purpose and inspiration ▶︎ www.Demartini.Ink/Soul   CLAIM YOUR FREE COPY OF SASHIN'S 97 STEPS TO EARNING YOUR NEXT MILLION E-BOOK (P.S I Wish They Taught Us This In School) ▶︎ www.67Steps.com   ORDER YOUR COPY OF SASHIN'S BECOMING THE MILLIONAIRE STUDENT E-BOOK ▶︎ https://www.WinWithSashin.com/EBook   ABOUT SASHIN GOVENDER & THE MILLIONAIRE STUDENT ▶︎ www.WinWithSashin.com/About   CLAIM YOUR FREE GIFT FROM SASHIN 4 PILLARS TO MASTERY AUDIO SERIES (VALUED AT $555) ▶︎ www.WinWithSashin.com   SUBSCRIBE FOR DAILY VIDEOS ▶︎ www.WinWithSashin.com/YouTube   CONNECT WITH SASHIN ON : ▶︎ INSTAGRAM → www.WinWithSashin.com/Instagram ▶︎ FACEBOOK → www.WinWithSashin.com/Facebook ▶︎ TWITTER → www.WinWithSashin.com/Twitter ▶︎ TIK TOK → www.WinWithSashin.com/TikTok

Does Noel Pearson's argument that ‘the Voice' is based on indigeneity and not race stand up? (01:30-17:00) What are the options for conservatives seeking to combat internet mobs and academic packs bent on defaming (or downright destroying) an individual, as happened recently to Nigel Biggar and Roger Scruton? (17:00-35:00)  And does the Melbourne Institute's latest HILDA survey really show a rise in inequality? (90:35-0:45) Dr Chris Berg and Scott Hargreaves are joined by Dr Bella D'Abrera and Andrew Bushnell to discuss these questions and share their culture picks, including a book on the unresolved legacy of the Vietnam War by Pulitzer Price-winning author Viet Thanh Nguyen (0:45-0:49), the final cut of the classic 1979 film ‘Apocalypse Now'(0:49-0:54), a Latin American soap opera on the Liberator, Simón Bolívar (0:54-:59) and Geoffrey Blainey's autobiography, ‘Before I Forget' (0:59-01:03:22). Quillette podcast with Toby Young and Nigel Biggar on how to deal with online outrage mobs https://player.fm/series/quillette-podcast/quillettes-toby-young-talks-to-professor-nigel-biggar-about-academic-outrage-mobs-and-how-to-defeat-them Nothing Ever Dies: Vietnam and the Memory of War by Viet Thanh Nguyen https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674660342 Before I Forget by Geoffrey Blainey https://www.penguin.com.au/books/before-i-forget-9781760890339 Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Statistical Report 2019 https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/3127664/HILDA-Statistical-Report-2019.pdf Noel Pearson's remarks to the Key Forum, Cape York Institute, 3 August 2019 https://capeyorkpartnership.org.au/all-updates/all-we-seek-is-our-rightful-place-thank-you/ Bolivar on Netflix https://www.netflix.com/au/title/80220422 Apocalypse Now: The Final Cut https://apocalypsenowfinalcut.com/

If we want men and women to have equal footing both at work and at home, we need to embrace flexible work. Dr Inga Lass is a research fellow at the Melbourne Institute at the University of Melbourne, and co-author of the HILDA report. She discusses the issues with Troy Roderick, an independent consultant on diversity, and director of strategic initiatives and insights with Male Champions of Change. And fathers Andrew Hislop and Patrick Gardner share their stories on the changes they have made in their own lives to achieve a better balance. We also hear from "Catherine" from ManelWatchAU about calling out 'manels'- all male panels or events- and giving women an equal stage.

Dr Andrew Greensmith, Specialist Plastic Surgeon at Melbourne Institute of Plastic Surgery does more augmentations with Motiva implants than anyone else in the Southern Hemisphere! We wanted to chat to him about why he chooses to use Motiva implants and what makes them stand out from the others. Motiva Implants are said to achieve a more natural looking breast and are leading the way when it comes to implant safety. Not only that they cater to the rise of more active women - Motiva Implants are able to work with a woman's body when they are at the gym or doing any activity they love to do. It's all explained here ....

You may have heard something recently about HILDA - the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey. You can see the most recent results on our Unimelb news site, Pursuit. But how exactly does HILDA work? And what are the implications of such a report? Silvi Vann-Wall chats with Professor Roger Wilkins, the Melbourne Institute Deputy Director and co-report author, who gets philosophical about HILDA.This episode was recorded on 26 July 2018. Production by Silvi Vann-Wall.Editing by Silvi Vann-Wall & Audio Engineering by Chris Hatzis.Five Things About is a training podcast created by Dr Andi Horvath at the University of Melbourne.

Unemployment figures don't always tell the full story when it comes to the state of jobs in Australia. Joel Carrett/AAPBoth the government and opposition are campaigning hard on their abilities as economic managers and jobs and growth have been the Coalition’s election cry. But is creating jobs really all that simple and what kind are needed in the Australian economy? Principal Research Fellow and Deputy Director at the Melbourne Institute, Roger Wilkins explains what a healthy level of unemployment is in our economy. He also has some bad news for all those depending on election cash splashes to create jobs.

Australia’s youngest person to ever be appointed Director of a branding agency, 24-year-old Emelye Lovell talks on breaking into an agency, the branding industry, working with an all-male team, and her struggle with Trigeminal Neuralgia (also called 'the suicide disease'). Emelye is based in Australia but has also worked in remore locations like Jakarta, Indonesia, where she was previously Marketing Manager of the Melbourne Institute. Along with being a Branding superstar, Emelye is also a hilarious blogger. You can read her work at BellmanAgency.com.au

Prof Samson spoke to the BBC about the Economic and Social Outlook Conference hosted by the Melbourne Institute and The Australian this week.

The Vice Chancellor of The University of Melbourne speaks about the contribution of the Melbourne Institute to Australia over the past 50 years.

Melbourne Institute research looks at what educational penalty's there are for smoking cannabis

Roger Wilkins, Associate Professor at the Melbourne Institute speaks about the research on Australia's disability payment scheme that is contained in the September edition of the Australian Economic Review

Professor Pagan outlines his opinion of the Intergen reports and budget forecasts, an opinion that is strongly rejected by the Treasury's head of macro economomics David Gruen