Podcasts about australian treasury

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of deliberate chaos being constructed in Washington DC with a much higher prospect of a US Federal Government shutdown likely. Authorised funding expires later today / Friday, US time. Financial risks are sharply elevated today, and markets are pricing these in.Elsewhere, US jobless claims fell sharply last week and by more than can be accounted for by seasonal factors. There are now a bit less than 1.9 mln people on these benefits.The PhillyFed survey of factories in America's traditional rust belt turned very negative, the worst result since April 2023. Soft demand was behind this shift. Optimism about the future took a hit too.The Kansas City Fed's equivalent survey in its region wasn't so negative, but it wasn't positive either. Optimism was a bit better there however.American existing home sales in November rose, but to be fair it is still stuck in the very low range it has had post-pandemic which is even lower than the post-GFC range, and back to levels first seen in 1995. So the November rise in that perspective is kind of irrelevant, no matter what the industry peak body says.The US Conference Board leading index tracking rose in November. Higher building permits, high equity prices, rising average hours worked in manufacturing, and fewer initial jobless claims boosted the November result. But the December result will no doubt take a hit from the current Washington shenanigans.The final estimate for US Q3-2024 GDP raised the expansion to +3.1% and extending the good run they have had since mid-2022. The US economy delivered US$29.4 tln of economic activity in the past year, with the expansion of +US$1.4 tln and the most ever. And that describes what is at risk from bad policy.Elsewhere there were many central bank rate reviews.In Japan, the Bank of Japan held its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, keeping it at the highest level since 2008. That was what financial markets expected. But the vote was split 8-1, with one board member wanting a +25 bps increase. Essentially they are waiting to see how destabilising the incoming American Administration will be. But the bank boss seems to have turned dovish in the circumstances, and that turn moved markets.In Taiwan, they kept their policy rate unchanged at 2%In the Philippines, they cut their rate by -25 bps to 5.75%.In Sweden, they cut by -25 bps to 2.5%.In Norway, they held at 4.5%.In England, they held unchanged at 4.75% with a split 6:3 vote with the dissenters wanting a cut. This is a pause as inflation starts to rise there again.In something of a surprise, Australian inflation expectations rose to 4.2% in December, ending their encouraging falls that started in September. It is not a result either the RBA or the Australian Treasury would have wanted.Container freight rates rose +8% last week but to be fair that was only because of a +26% rise in teh China-to-USWC route and a +17% rise in Chin-to-New York as traders raced to get ahead of the impending tariff threat. Other routes saw small declines. Bulk cargo rates fell another -7% last week to be less than half what they were a year ago and back to levels last seen in July 2023.Many mineral commodities are retreating in price in expectation 2025 will be tough, with copper down -2%.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.59%, up a very sharp +19 bps from this time yesterday as markets digested the Fed's move and the deliberate mess being created by the incoming President.The price of gold will start today at US$2592/oz and down -US$42 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -US$2.50 to be just on US$69.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$73.The Kiwi dollar starts today just on 56.5 USc and down -60 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps to 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps to 54.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.1 to be down another -25 bps from yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$100,994 and down -3.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at +/- 3.1%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

In this episode, Richard Temlett welcomes Brendan Coates, Housing and Economic Security Program Director at the Grattan Institute, to discuss Australia's ongoing housing crisis. Brendan shares his insights into the root causes of the crisis, its history, and how long it might take to resolve. We explore key topics like the role of politics in shaping property policies, the Henry Tax Review of 2009, and why many of its recommendations were not implemented. Brendan also explains potential tools and levers that could address the crisis, including reforms to stamp duty, land tax, and negative gearing. Additionally, he shares his thoughts on capital gains tax (CGT) reform, the impact of land use planning, and the ongoing debate over rental freezes.In his role, Brendan leads research on housing, retirement incomes, tax reform, and macroeconomic issues. With a background in macro-financial economics, Brendan has previously worked with the World Bank in Indonesia and consulted for the Bank in Latin America. He also served as an official in the Australian Treasury. Brendan is a leading voice on Australia's housing challenges, and his extensive research covers everything from taxation and land use planning to social housing and rent assistance.Tune in to this episode for a comprehensive analysis of the housing crisis and potential policy solutions from one of Australia's top housing experts.EPISODE LINKSBrendan Coates LinkedInGrattan Institute We'd love your feedback, send us a message today.LET'S CONNECT Instagram > https://www.instagram.com/preciselyproperty/ Website > https://charterkc.com.au/precisely-property-podcast/ LinkedIn > https://www.linkedin.com/company/charter-keck-cramer/ Email > podcast@charterkc.com.au This podcast is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment or financial advice. This podcast is not intended to replace or supplement professional investment, financial or legal advice. Please seek professional advice based upon your personal circumstances. The views expressed by our podcast guests may not represent those of Charter Keck Cramer. This podcast may not be copied, reproduced, republished or posted in whole or in part without the prior written consent of Charter Keck Cramer.

Irene Sim joins us to discuss some topics I think you'll find interesting like the power of emotions, new thinking habits, systemic bias and racism, and emotions and ego. Such good stuff!   Irene is the Managing Director of Coaching Alliance Group, an accredited Executive Leadership Coach, Mentor and Facilitator. Her career is amazing. She was the inaugural Chief of Staff at APEC and first Asian woman to be promoted to the Senior Executive Service of the Australian Treasury and the Australian Taxation Office. AND she was the first Asian woman that the Australian Treasury posted overseas diplomatically as the Minister-Counsellor to China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.   Here are the topics we covered in the episode: 3:12 Power of emotions & leadership 7:33 New thinking habits 11:52 Bringing cultures together by removing systemic bias/racism 21:44 The effect of emotions and ego Here are the three takeaways: 1.   Let's look at emotions look at comfortable or uncomfortable not good or bad. They can be our “north star” guiding us to act in alignment with our deepest values and to be more resilient. Accept them, allow them and then do something constructive with them. 2.   Having an inclusive mindset is about being curious and move away from the assumption that the way I see the world is the only way to see the world. 3.   One habit to break up the “all about me” and the disconnection from the other. We can look at an issue together, rather than making it personal by blaming judging or defending against the other. This allows alignment.    More About Irene:  Irene coaches women at all stages of their journey to break free from societal biases to set their own terms and to thrive as powerful and authentic leaders on their own terms. Irene also coaches entire organizations on how to provide allyship support to one another, to remove systemic biases.   How to Reach Irene: www.coachingalliance group.com www.linkedin.com/in/irene-sim-acc-1491a774   Emerging Women Leaders Program (https://coachingalliancegroup.com/women-leaders-coaching/)   How to Reach Yo Canny:  Our website: www.girltaketheleadpod.com  You can send a message or voicemail there. We'd love to hear from you!   email: yo@yocanny.com   FB group: Girl, Take the Lead https://www.facebook.com/groups/272025931481748/?ref=share   IG: yocanny (Yo)   YouTube   LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/yocanny/

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news about how hard it is to get the 'last mile' of above-policy inflation accomplished.American consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead remained stuck and sticky at 3% in February, the same as in the previous two months, and holding at three-year lows. But is it enough for the Fed? Of some concern is that inflation expectations for 3 and 5 years ahead are rising, but only toward that same 3% mark. Clearly there is work to do to quell these expectations. The next big watch is on the actual February inflation and that comes tomorrow. Markets expect 3.1% with a core at 3.7% - in other words, no progress lower.There was a UST 3yr bond auction today and that was very well supported. The median yield came in at 4.15% and only marginally higher than the 4.09% at the equivalent auction a month ago. There seems no sign investors are either pulling back, or demanding sharply higher yields. Demand remains high, yields are as you would expect.The earlier official reports that Japan had slipped in to recession have proven incorrect. Their revised and updated data shows in fact it expanded at a healthy rate, driven by strong capital expenditure in the business sector. Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japan's GDP, remained weak at -1.0%, slightly worse than the preliminary -0.9% decline.All eyes are now turning to the next Bank of Japan meeting this time next week. Markets are increasingly expecting them to signal the end of their ultra-low (negative) interest rate policy, one they have had in place for eight years now.China's vehicle sales slumped in February, down -20% from the same month a year ago. But that comes after an exceptionally strong January. Combining the two months, overall vehicle sales in the world's largest market rose +11% to 4 mln units when you look at them both, with the NEV segment rising +29%.Indian vehicle sales for February are now awaited. They too come off very strong gains in January (+14%).In Australia, the peak body representing financial regulators, The Council of Financial Regulators, (The RBA, APRA, ASIC and the Australian Treasury) released the points they are talking about in a quarterly statement. The main issue seems to be the rise of hardship among borrowers, and the increase in the share of households who had fallen behind on loan payments (although from historically low levels).And since the start of 2024, the iron ore price has fallen almost -20% - largely because of falling expectations China will deploy its traditional infrastructure stimulus as a way to reinvigorate its stuttering economy. It's new focus on "high quality development" won't be minerals-intense.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 4.10% and up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today little-changed from yesterday at US$2178/oz.Oil prices have stayed at just over US$77.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$82/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at just on 61.7 USc and little-changed from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are firmish at 93.4 AUc. Against the euro we have held at 56.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 70.5 and now unchanged over the past five days.The bitcoin price starts today at US$72,448 and up +4.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high at just under +/- 4.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

In Principle of Charity on the Couch, Lloyd has an unfiltered conversation with the guests, throws them curveballs, and gets into the personal side of Principle of Charity.BIOSTyson Yunkaporta is an Aboriginal scholar, founder of the Indigenous Knowledge Systems Lab at Deakin University in Melbourne, and author of Sand Talk. His work focuses on applying Indigenous methods of inquiry to resolve complex issues and explore global crises.John Humphreys is the Chief Economist at The Australian Taxpayers' Alliance. He has worked previously as a policy analyst for the Australian Treasury. John was the founder of the Australian Libertarian Society, the Liberal Democratic Party (now called "Libertarian Party"), and the Friedman Conference. He also ran a research centre and education charity in Cambodia for many years, for which he was awarded a knighthood in 2016. CREDITSYour hosts are Lloyd Vogelman and Emile Sherman This podcast is proud to partner with The Ethics CentreFind Lloyd @LloydVogelman on Linked inFind Emile @EmileSherman on Linked In and XThis podcast is produced by Jonah Primo and Danielle HarveyFind Jonah at jonahprimo.com or @JonahPrimo on Instagram Find Danielle at danielleharvey.com.au Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode we contrast two very different ways of seeing the world — Libertarianism and Indigenous Ways, to consider which model is better for society. Libertarianism, with a focus on the version of this political philosophy that came about in the second half of the 20th century, usually associated with the centre right, does in fact cut across traditional left /right lines. It sees our individual liberty, our freedom as the most important political value. It's a political philosophy that values civil liberties, competitive markets, private property and free speech. It sees the government as a poor substitute for voluntary community and dislikes government intervention. Not just because governments may be corrupt or inefficient, but because of the real threat of force that lies at the base of all laws to coerce us to do what we may not want to do. Libertarianism sits on the extreme, but still well within a general Western enlightenment worldview with other pillars like capitalism and free functioning markets. One could say that the purpose that sits behind this entire worldview is the flourishing of the individual. In contrast to libertarianism we consider Indigenous Australian knowledge systems, which echo many First Nations' ways of seeing the world. Here the individual is just one node in a hugely complex system of relationships that extend to the family, to community, to ancestors, to future generations, to animals and to the land — which is also seen to be alive and sentient — and to the creation stories themselves. While this system recognises we have individual desires and we should honour our individuality, it is driven by prioritising our relationships and obligations to all those groups mentioned above with an overarching sense of custodianship for a story that started in creation and will continue long after we are gone. There are some interesting crossovers between the two worldviews, such as a distrust of centralised top-down systems of control and a belief in the power of emergent systems that come from the web of human interactions, however these are two very different ways of seeing the role of the individual and their relationships and responsibilities in and to society. This episode contains some coarse language.BIOSTyson Yunkaporta is an Aboriginal scholar, founder of the Indigenous Knowledge Systems Lab at Deakin University in Melbourne, and author of Sand Talk. His work focuses on applying Indigenous methods of inquiry to resolve complex issues and explore global crises.John Humphreys is the Chief Economist at The Australian Taxpayers' Alliance. He has worked previously as a policy analyst for the Australian Treasury. John was the founder of the Australian Libertarian Society, the Liberal Democratic Party (now called "Libertarian Party"), and the Friedman Conference. He also ran a research centre and education charity in Cambodia for many years, for which he was awarded a knighthood in 2016. CREDITSYour hosts are Lloyd Vogelman and Emile Sherman This podcast is proud to partner with The Ethics CentreFind Lloyd @LloydVogelman on Linked inFind Emile @EmileSherman on Linked In and XThis podcast is produced by Jonah Primo and Danielle HarveyFind Jonah at jonahprimo.com or @JonahPrimo on Instagram Find Danielle at danielleharvey.com.au Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the ninety first episode of the #Expatchat podcast where we discuss the latest tax and financial issues affecting an #Australianexpat. In today's Expat Chat we provide an update on the latest developments with respect to the proposed changes to the tax residency rules affecting Australian expats. After there was no mention of the proposed changes to the tax residency rules in the recent Federal Budget the market intepreted this as the changes were to be put on the back burner especially after the Australian Taxation Office released their updated Tax Ruling on non-residency rules for Australian expats. Fast forward a month and the Australian Treasury department has released a Consultation paper asking for feedback on the Board of Taxations proposed changes. What does this mean for Australian expats? In this episode we run through the following topics:  • What are the proposed changes to tax residency? • What is the purpose of the consultation paper and how does this work with the expat tax residency changes? • What is the timeframe for the implementation of the proposed changes? Links that we discussed in this episode include: • Proposed Changes to Expat Tax Residency Rules - https://atlaswealth.com/news/changes-to-the-australian-tax-residency-rules-affecting-expats/ • Treasury Consultation Paper - https://treasury.gov.au/consultation/c2023-205344 • Facebook Group - Don't forget to join our Australian Expat Financial Forum Facebook Group - https://www.facebook.com/groups/Australianexpatfinancialforum • Ask Atlas - Have your questions answered on the podcast by clicking this link - https://atlaswealth.com/news-media/australian-expat-podcasts/questions-or-feedback-for-the-expat-podcast/ • Expat Mortgage Podcast - https://atlaswealth.com/news-media/australian-expat-podcasts/expat-mortgage-podcast/ If you like the content make sure you let us know by hitting the thumbs up and subscribing as well as providing some feedback in the comments below. Atlas Wealth Management is a specialist in providing tax financial planning advice to every Australian #expat. Whether you are based in Asia, the Middle East, Europe or the Americas, we have the experience in providing wealth management and planning services to the expatriate community. Atlas Wealth Management was born out of the demand from expats who wanted a financial adviser to help them navigate the tax and financial maze of living abroad as well as assisting them make the most out of their time overseas. To find out more about Atlas Wealth Management and how we can help Australian expats please go to https://www.atlaswealth.com. Make sure you connect with us on our respective social media channels: Facebook: www.facebook.com/atlaswealthmgmt LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/atlas-wealth-management Twitter: www.twitter.com/atlaswealthmgmt Instagram: www.instagram.com/atlaswealthmgmt

Kate is Co-founder, Chair, and previous CEO of Applied, the essential platform for de-biased recruiting. Applied uses behavioral and data science to help organizations find the best person for the job regardless of their background. Through this platform, Kate aims to make hiring smart, fair, and easy. It also cares about being able to prove impact, so it publishes the results of its experiments and research that inform its product design. Prior to founding Applied, Kate was Principal Advisor and Head of Growth and Equality at the Behavioural Insights Team and has previously worked for UNESCO in South East Asia, and for the Australian Treasury. She is also a former member of the World Economic Forum's Global Action Committee on Behavioural Science. Kate holds a Master in Public Policy degree from the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, and a Bachelor in Economic and Social Sciences from the University of Sydney. She is a Trustee at the Blueprint for Better Business.

In 2002, the Australian Federal Treasurer, Peter Costello, commissioned the Australian Treasury to look at the long-term issues facing the nation and how adequately current generations were preparing for future ones. The message was bleak; “Australia's ageing population would put immense stress on public finances, especially on health and aged care spending, over the next four decades”.   To help address this, the Future Fund was created, and it now looks after six public asset funds (totalling AUD $243.5bn of AUM, as of 31/12/22).   So in the second episode of our Super Allocator Miniseries, Ben Samild, Deputy CIO of Future Fund, explains its mission and strategy, including Future Fund's mandate to achieve CPI + 4-5% returns per annum.   He explains the “total portfolio approach”, why they locate portfolio managers close to another, their approach to external manager selection, and why in the words of their former CEO that “too many institutional investors arbitrarily filled pre-determined asset class buckets with too many average quality assets in the name of diversification…risk management at its worst!“   From commodities to FX, from concentration to ESG issues, this is a compelling conversation that crosses borders and asset classes, challenging some conventional thinking. Sign up to our newsletter for more in-depth insights | Follow us on LinkedIn   The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, Bremont Watches, LiveTrade and Mintus.  

After passing record levels of investment in infrastructure, research and science, and climate the United States is on a clear pathway to a clean energy transition. Such historic legislation coincides with United States Studies Centre polling indicating that significant majorities of Americans and Australians want to see their nations collaborate with each other on fighting climate change. Yet the midterm elections could see President Biden's Democratic party lose one, if not both Houses of Congress, and experts expect minimal progress at this month's international climate negotiations (COP27) in Egypt. What sort of collaboration on climate change can we expect from the United States and Australia for the next two years and beyond? Can the alliance pivot to work on climate policy that touches on industrial policy and economic development? Should Australia be as concerned about the recent US climate legislation as the Europeans are? To discuss these issues, USSC hosted an event featuring Meg McDonald, a former senior diplomat now a board member of the NSW Net Zero Emissions and Clean Economy Board, the Foreign Investment Review Board and Environment Commissioner, Greater Cities Commission and Lachlan Carey, a former Australian Treasury official and senior associate at the Colorado-based RMI, where he leads work on US regional economic development through clean energy investment for a conversation with USSC CEO Dr Michael Green.

The governments of many countries have structural budget deficits, so even as their economies recover from the COVID-recession they are still running deficits. In many countries, the fundamental structure of the budget is bad. There is too much spending relative to revenue, even in normal or good times, not just in recession. In this episode we explore how economists can calculate structural budget balances. We look specifically at what the Australian Treasury does, given that a new Australian Budget came out last week.Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. Links relevant to the conversationAustralian structural budget balance indicators available here:https://budget.gov.au/2022-23-october/content/bp1/download/bp1_bs-3.pdfAustralian Treasury methodology for estimating structural budget balances:https://treasury.gov.au/publication/economic-roundup-issue-3-2010/economic-roundup-issue-3-2010/estimating-the-structural-budget-balance-of-the-australian-governmentIMF Fiscal Monitor which contains cyclically-adjusted budget balances (Tables A3 and A4):https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FMMedia coverage of Australian budget:https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/jim-chalmers-takes-forensic-approach-to-tax-concessions/news-story/25c4e1be826abb87f27c918532a69614https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/bill-shorten-admits-push-to-curb-ndis-cost-growth/news-story/8a15cb3daabd55961e35df957f206bcfIFS analysis of UK mini budget:https://ifs.org.uk/articles/mini-budget-responseCreditsThanks to Josh Crotts for mixing the episode and to the show's sponsor, Gene's consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Please consider signing up to receive our email updates and to access our e-book Top Ten Insights from Economics at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Amazon Prime's millions of members are getting access to a full music and podcast library.   The Australian Treasury department is looking at buy now pay later again with an eye to require credit checks for ALL customers.   Elon Musk has officially been Twitter's owner for just under a week and he's already making waves with sackings, hirings and reboots.   ---   Build the financial wellbeing of your team with Flux at Work: https://bit.ly/fluxatwork Download the free app (App Store): http://bit.ly/FluxAppStore Download the free app (Google Play): http://bit.ly/FluxappGooglePlay Daily newsletter: https://bit.ly/fluxnewsletter Flux on Instagram: http://bit.ly/fluxinsta Flux on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@flux.finance   ---   The content in this podcast reflects the views and opinions of the hosts, and is intended for personal and not commercial use. We do not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any opinion, statement or other information provided or distributed in these episodes.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Regardless of whether we think of carrots or sticks, incentives influence and shape our behaviours. But what are incentives? Why are some incentives more important than others? And how can leaders and organisations make better use of incentives in their day-to-day work? Jason Murphy is an economist who has worked at the Australian Treasury, the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Nauru, and has written for the Australian Financial Review. He writes regularly for News.com.au and Crikey, blogs and has a passion for bringing economics into the everyday world. Jason's 2019 book Incentivology explored the mechanisms behind many spectacular failures and successes in our history, culture and everyday lives, and shows us how to use (or lose) incentives in our world at large. Mathew Dunckley, writing in Australia's premier newspaper, the Sydney Morning Herald, asserted that 'Jason Murphy possesses that rare gift of originality of thought and, rarer still, the ability to write about it with clarity, wit and insight.' Jason blogs regularly at https://thomasthethinkengine.com/ And can be followed on Twitter @jasemurphy

This is an edited version of my live discussion about the current state of the economy and what may lay ahead with Leith van Onselen who writes as the Unconventional Economist at MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked as an economist at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs. He has a strong background in … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay Economic Shock Ahead: With Leith van Onselen [Podcast]"

With US inflation at a 40-year high, who wins and who loses? Are greedy corporations to blame as some pundits are suggesting? A wide-ranging conversation with Darren Brady Nelson, Chief Economist of LibertyWorks, an Australian libertarian think tank, which also considers so-called Woke Capitalism and what's going on with China. In the second part of the show, the Grattan Institute's Economic Policy Program Director Brendan Coates explains the franking credits controversy, related to some peculiar Australian tax rules, to show host Gene Tunny.   About this episode's guestsDarren Brady Nelson is an Austrian School economist and liberty evangelion as well as a C.S. Lewis and G.K. Chesterton style Christian. He is currently the Chief Economist at LibertyWorks of Brisbane Australia and a long-time policy advisor to The Heartland Institute of Chicago USA. He is also a regular commentator in traditional and online Australian and American media. Check out his full profile at Regular guests – Economics Explored.Brendan Coates is the Economic Policy Program Director at Grattan Institute, where he leads Grattan's work on tax and transfer system reform, retirement incomes and superannuation, housing, macroeconomics, and migration. He is a former macro-financial economist with the World Bank in Indonesia and consulted to the Bank in Latin America. Prior to that, he worked in the Australian Treasury in areas such as tax-transfer system reform and macro-economic forecasting, with a strong focus on the Chinese economy.Links relevant to the conversationAmericans Return to Work as Biden Administration Work Disincentives Expire, but Jobs Remain Over 7 million Below Trend | Latest | America First Policy Institute (article referring to inflation tax of $855/year for an American family associated with a 7% yearly inflation rate)Summers stumbles – John QuigginWoke Capitalism Is a Monopoly Game | Mises WireJoe Biden appears to insult Fox News reporter over inflation questionThe implications of removing refundable franking credits - Grattan InstituteChartsUS CPI inflation rate, through-the-yearUS Producer Prices inflation rate, through-the-yearUS inflation expectations - University of Michigan estimatesClarifications“Average hourly earnings for all employees on US private nonfarm payrolls increased by 5.7% year-on-year in January of 2022” (see United States Average Hourly Earnings YoY - January 2022 Data - 2007-2021 Historical) This compares with inflation running at 7.5% through-the-year. Amazon hikes average US starting pay to $18, hires for 125,000 jobs | ReutersAbbreviationsCPI Consumer Price IndexPPI Producer Price IndexCreditsThanks to Darren and Brendan for great insights and conversation, and to the show's audio engineer Josh Crotts for his assistance in producing the episode. Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the Omicron surge in Australia is decapitating their workforce. It is about to do the same in China.But first, US jobless claims rose last week and by more than was expected seasonally. There are now more than 2 mln people on these benefits - although on a seasonal and population adjusted basis this is the lowest level in almost 50 years (1973). And below pre-pandemic levels.US producer prices didn't rise in December quite as much as feared, and the big +9.7% year-on-year was lower than the November level. Both results suggest that there is some topping out in the wholesale price pressure.Meanwhile, a top Fed official confirmed they are fully engaged in fighting the inflation threat, confirming they have abandoned the 'transitory' view. And that may mean three rather than two rate hikes in 2022, with the first in March when their bond buying will probably end. One Fed member sees four increases in 2022.China's foreign direct investment inflows are starting to slip, according to the December data released late yesterday. Meanwhile, Omicron is spreading in China and another port city is now in lockdown. The global impacts on supply-chains won't be helped by this as congestion is growing at the world's biggest port as shippers try to re-route goods. The threat to global trade from this is actually enormous.And it is not just Chinese ports that are getting more snarled. The giant US West Coast ports, especially in Los Angeles are still struggling to clear long-embedded backlogs.Outbound freight rates for containerised cargoes from China are rising again, which is not a good sign. Freight rates for bulk cargoes however are falling again, now down to year-ago levels.Japan's machine tool orders stayed high in December, up +40% from year ago levels to just under ¥140 bln (NZ$1.8 bln) in the month. This is a historically high level even if it is slightly lower than for the prior two months and is +16% higher than for December 2019. This data is important because it confirm that global manufacturers are investing heavily in productivity again.In the meantime, we can note that the copper price has risen above US$10,000 per tonne again, tin is now above US$40,000/tonne for the first time ever, and nickel is back over US$22,000 and a decade high. Lithium carbonate is now over US$48,000 and rising fast. The leap in non-ferrous metal prices is a long-term signal that price pressures will remain tough to mitigateIn a similar vein, we should note that the local price of carbon (NZUs) has jumped to NZ$71/tonne in the past few days. (That compares with the EU's carbon permit price at NZ$133/tonne and flatlining in 2022.) More than 10% of the Australian workforce may be off the job due to Omicron isolations now the Australian Treasury is estimating and that is having a serious impact on basic services, including supplying supermarket shelves. Some say their entire food chain is "out of whack".The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.72% and unchanged. The price of gold starts today at US$1819/oz and down -US$6 since this time yesterday.And oil prices start today back firmer, up +US$1.50 to just on US$82/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$84.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar opens today firmer again at 68.8 USc and a further +¼c rise. Against the Australian dollar we are firmer at 94.3 AUc. Against the euro we are firm at 60 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts the today up at 72.8.The bitcoin price has essentially moved sideways since this time yesterday, down a bit less than -1% to US$43,179. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Dr Audrey Lobo-Pulo currently works at LinkedIn and holds a PhD in Physics and a Masters in Economic Policy. She is also accredited by the International Bateson Institute to host and conduct Warm data labs. A member of the World Economic Forum Expert Network for the Future of Digital Economy and Society, Civic Participation and the Future of Government, Audrey is passionate about how technology may be designed for better government and societal outcomes. Previously a Senior Policy Advisor for the Australian Treasury, Audrey has worked for over a decade in areas relating to Australia's labour market, taxation and social policy. A long-standing advocate of Open Source Models in Government, Audrey is deeply interested in how information evolves and flows within society. She is also a Cybernetics enthusiast and a student of human sense-making. In our conversation, we talk about context and resilience, and how we approach living systems. Show notes and connect with us at (steampoweredshow.com)

This is an edited version of our latest live show as I discuss the risk of another lost decade with regard to the Australian economy with Leith van Onselen who writes as the Unconventional Economist at MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked as an economist at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs. He has … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A: HD Replay Leith Van Onselen: Another Lost Decade Ahead?"

Our panel event to mark the release of the 2021 Asia Power Index. Launched by the Lowy Institute in 2018, this annual project measures resources and influence to rank the relative power of states in Asia. The 2021 edition, which covers four years of data, is the most comprehensive assessment so far of the changing distribution of power in the Indo-Pacific region. The principal researchers behind the project, Hervé Lemahieu and Alyssa Leng, was joined by Roland Rajah, the Lowy Institute's Lead Economist, to discuss the Index's key findings: Why the United States has registered the most substantial — albeit still modest — upswing in power of any country in the region. What China's losses across half of the Index's measures of power in 2021 will mean for its trajectory to 2030 and beyond. How the region is becoming more bipolar and less multipolar, and the difficulties this poses for Southeast Asian middle powers in particular. Hervé Lemahieu is the Director of Research at the Lowy Institute, where he is responsible for the Institute's team of experts and oversees its research output. Hervé leads the research for the annual Asia Power Index and authored the methodology to map the changing distribution of power in the region. Alyssa Leng is a Research Fellow and Economist in the Power and Diplomacy Program and one of the principal researchers behind the Asia Power Index. Prior to joining the Institute, Alyssa worked on Australia's economic policy response to the Covid-19 pandemic at the Australian Treasury. Roland Rajah is Lead Economist and Director of the International Economics Program at the Lowy Institute. Before joining the Institute, Roland was a Senior Economist and Country Manager at the Asian Development Bank. The event was chaired by Sam Roggeveen, Director of the Lowy Institute's International Security Program.

Leith van Onselen writes for MacroBusiness as the Unconventional Economist. Leith has previously worked as an economist at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs. He has a strong background in economic policy and financial sector regulation. Leith holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Honours) degree from Melbourne University and a Graduate Diploma of Applied … Continue reading "The Inter-generational Property Meat Grinder: With Leith van Onselen"

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news some investors are focusing on the positive, others on the negative today.Firstly the bond market is tanking today, even though the equity markets are holding high. Investors may be sensing that the best of the recovery is behind them and the rapid spread of the delta variant is a reminder that we're going to have to learn to live with the virus for years to come. But despite this, there are still reasons to be optimistic. Firstly, most of the Q2 GDP reports have been quite good and when ours are released next month, it will likely be too.Secondly, the US is going to get its big infrastructure deal.And thirdly the US PMIs for July were really very strong - but not quite as strong as markets expected, which is why some investors are pulling back. However that doesn't alter the real expansions in manufacturing.European factories are expanding fast too.It is true that China is in a slowdown, and approaching a stall. But they are the weak one, the outlier. Beijing is eyeing a recovery that is "not solid" and "uneven", blaming global forces, with promises of more stimulus support on the way. It is an admission that is getting almost zero press attention inside China.Japan, Taiwan and South Korea are all expanding at good rates. Even India is too.It is Russia and ASEAN countries that are the laggards reporting shrinking factory output, mainly because the delta virus strain has them in a very unfriendly grip.In Australian factories, there are signs the top is being taken off their factory expansions by the recent lockdowns, but both report good expansions in July.But the new rolling lockdowns are taking a toll and quite quickly. The Aussie press may be enamored by the Afterpay deal, but in fact behind the scenes the RBA and the Australian Treasury are dusting off their crisis stimulus playbooks. Everything about the pandemic economic effects has happened fast; the approaching crisis, the official responses, and the V-shaped recovery. Not the impact of the delta strain is happening fast too so the regulatory response needs equal quickness.The UST 10yr yield starts today sharply lower again at 1.17% and down another -6 bps overnight. The price of gold is now just under US$1816/oz and up another +US$2 from where we were yesterday.Oil prices are sharply lower today and by about -US$2.50/bbl and in the US they are now just under US$71/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -US$3 at just over US$72.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar opens today just on 69.7 USc and unchanged since this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are back lower at 94.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 58.8 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at 72.5 and marginally lower.The bitcoin price is now at US$39,766 and down -3.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been high at +/- 3.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

What does Australia's economic future look like? How will the pandemic, China and other global issues impact Australian investors?  Joining us to talk about these issues and many more from the intersection of politics and economics is Professor Mark Crosby. Mark is an applied international macroeconomist and celebrated academic. He's currently Professor at Monash Business School where he is part of the University's leadership and executive education team, and the Director of International Business.  He's also a Hibberd Lecturer at Melbourne Business School, where he spent 19 years before joining Monash in 2016, and has also worked as an academic at the University of New South Wales and University of Toronto, as well as a Research Officer at the Australian Treasury in Canberra. His academic interests are in international macroeconomics, with particular interest in policy issues in the Australian and Asian regions, including a lot of work on China given its major impact on our local economy. His research has focused on topics such as  the role of exchange rates in affecting macroeconomic fluctuations, the impact of macroeconomic factors on election outcomes, and the properties of business cycles.  He also consults widely to business and government both in Australia and overseas, including the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Monetary Authority of Singapore.  His most recent consultancies have examined policies for diversifying Brunei's economy, and policy issues related to South Africa's increasing current account deficit. Mark is also a regular contributor to the Australian Financial Review and The Age newspapers, and he is a sought after public speaker on matters relating to the macroeconomy. I was recently privileged to enjoy a presentation by Mark on the future of the Australian economy and its impact on housing and financial markets, which has proved to be very insightful and our discussion today will give you all of the key trends that you need to be aware of in order to make fully informed decisions in the interesting times ahead. In this very enlightening conversation today, Mark shares: What international macroeconomic policy issues are likely to have the most impact on Australia moving forward. What impact China's policy changes are likely to have on our economy. He talks about whether the current strength in the economy will last. He outlines the biggest economic risks that need to be considered that are likely to impact on property and investment markets. He outlines the economic drivers of our property market cycles.  He runs through What have we learned from the pandemic and what we should be doing about it. We discuss the impact of immigration on property prices and what's likely to happen with property when international borders are reopened.  He gives us his read on central banks approaches to asset prices and potential interventions moving forward. And given current booming conditions for good properties across the country, he outlines what he believes is likely to happen with property in the short to medium term, and where are the opportunities (and risks). This is a great conversation that will improve your understanding of complex global interdependencies and will help you to make good sound investment decisions moving forward. And if  you want to hear more juicy insights on all things property, tune in to Australia's longest running property investment and real estate show Real Estate Talk, which has just rebranded as Realty Talk, where you can join me at www.realty.com.au as the new host of the show, where I interview a number of industry leaders every week to discuss all things property. And if you're ready to find out how investment can support your growth goals, join me live on our unique KnowHow Property Freedom Flight program, where I'll personally guide you through my proven process for property investment success.  To book your ticket or find out more, click the link in the show notes or just go to https://knowhowproperty.com.au/freedom-fighters. Mark's book recommendation: Crime and Punishment by Fyodor Dostoevsky Get Invested is the leading weekly podcast for Australians who want to learn how to unlock their full ‘self, health and wealth' potential. Hosted by Bushy Martin, an award winning property investor, founder, author and media commentator who is recognised as one of Australia's most trusted experts in property, investment and lifestyle, Get Invested reveals the secrets of the high performers who invest for success in every aspect of their lives and the world around them. Remember to subscribe on your favourite podcast player, and if you're enjoying the show please leave us a review. Find out more about Get Invested here https://bushymartin.com.au/get-invested-podcast/  Want to connect with Bushy? Get in touch here https://bushymartin.com.au/contact/  This show is produced by Apiro Media - http://apiropodcasts.com

How to have a secure and comfortable life in retirement for all? The answer to this lies in our superannuation and aged pension schemes. Last year there was a review of Australia’s retirement income by Michael Callaghan, a former chief of staff to the Australian Treasury. The review found that generally Australia was in a pretty good position with what’s in place. But there are still many controversial areas that have also lately become politicized, namely the superannuation guarantee rate and how to assist younger Australians in owning a home. Former public service commissioner Andrew Podger gives his review of Australia's retirement schemes and what needs to be improved, including greater rental assistance, something he says wasn't tackled in the Review.

A conversation on the importance of the Treasury department to government and economic management. Economics Explored host Gene Tunny speaks with Paul Tilley about his 2019 book Changing Fortunes: A History of the Australian Treasury.Paul Tilley was an economic adviser to governments for 32 years, working at senior levels in all parts of Treasury, as well as other key agencies such as the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, the Treasurer’s office and the OECD. He is now a Senior Fellow at the Melbourne Law School, a Visiting Fellow at the Australian National University Tax and Transfer Policy Institute and works with a number of non-government organisations.Here's Paul's Melbourne Law School profile and here's Paul's ANU profile.Finally, here's a link to the Wikipedia article on the trillion-dollar coin Gene alludes to in the conversation.Get in touchGet in touch with Economics Explored host Gene Tunny with any comments, suggestions, or questions by emailing him via: contact@economicsexplored.com

Ross Garnaut is in conversation on his new book, Reset: Restoring Australia after the Pandemic Recession, in which Garnaut shows how the COVID-19 crisis offers Australia the opportunity to reset its economy and build a successful future - and why the old approaches will not work. Garnaut develops the idea of a renewable superpower, calls for a basic income and explores what the 'decoupling' of China and America will mean for Australia. In the wake of COVID-19, the world has entered its deepest recession since the 1930s. Shocks of this magnitude throw history from its established course - either for good or evil. In 1942 - in the depths of war - the Australian government established a Department of Post-War Reconstruction to plan a future that not only restored existing strengths but also rebuilt the country for a new and better future. As we strive to overcome the coronavirus challenge, we need new, practical ideas to restore Australia. This book has them. Ross Garnaut AC is Professorial Research Fellow in Economics at the University of Melbourne. He is a Fellow of the Australian Academy of Sciences and a Distinguished Fellow of the Economic Society of Australia. He was principal economic adviser to Australian Prime Minister Bob Hawke and Australian Ambassador to China (1985-88). In 2008, he produced the Garnaut Climate Change Review for the Australian government and a follow-up review in 2011. He is the author of many books, including the bestselling Dog Days and Superpower. Dr Steven Kennedy, Secretary to the Australian Treasury since 2 September 2019, has held numerous senior positions in the public service in a 30 year career. He was the Head of Secretariat of the Garnaut Climate Change Review - Update 2011 and was awarded a Public Service Medal in 2016 for outstanding public service in the area of climate change policy. Dr Kennedy holds a PhD and a Masters in Economics from the Australian National University, and a Bachelor of Economics (First Class Honours) from the University of Sydney. Welcome and introduction delivered by Professor Brian P. Schmidt, ANU Vice-Chancellor. Vote of thanks given by Professor Helen Sullivan, Director of the Crawford School of Public Policy ANU.

Gene Tunny is a former official at the Australian Treasury. As an economist and director of Adept Economics, Gene is frequently sought for his views on economics and policy. In this interview Gene canvases a number of economic and tax issues ultimately settling on recommendations for a return to a cabinet-led, consensus approach to sound policy that is built on a multitude of counsel. -------------------------------------- Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/vZjkWOLiDbc Listen to this episode: Follow Gene: linkedin.com/in/genetunny Gene's book ‘Beautiful One Day, Broke The Next': https://www.connorcourtpublishing.com.au/BEAUTIFUL-ONE-DAY-BROKE-THE-NEXT-Queensland%E2%80%99s-Public-Finances-since-Sir-Joh-and-Sir-Leo--Gene-Tunny_p_233.html -------------------------------------- 3:44 Ken Henry Tax Review: fundamental reform 4:44 Concept of buying reform 6:07 Resource rent tax vs royalties 8:36 Triumph and Demise: The broken promise of a Labor Generation 10:16 The difficulty of tax reform: States vs Federal 11:14 Stamp duty on properties 13:07 How do you get political reform through? 18:09 Marketing would help sell reforms 19:59 Are people interested in economics? 22:26 No limit to debt levels 23:40 Where is Aus going with its economic policy? 25:56 Inflation not spilling over into consumer prices 30:10 The difficulty to predict inflationary consequences 31:23 Can you create money for needs that arise? Modern Monetary theory is voodoo economics. 37:26 US health system vs Aus Medicare 39:31 What are views inside Treasury 43:39 Jobkeeper and the pitfalls of designing and implementing things quickly 45:07 Vaccine needed to reopen Australia 47:58 Fear helped Anna P win the elections 50:00 The cost of a QLD lockdown vs order closures 51:50 Justifications and evidence haven't been published for lockdowns and border closures 53:43 Anna Palaszczuk's 1st term and economic handling 1:00:24 Palasczuk just dominating MSM re: covid and her keeping Qld safe 1:03:37 Stockholm Syndrome supporting Dan Andrews and Palasczuk 1:06:53 ‘Beautiful one day, broke the next' Book about Qld debt 1:17:01 How would an economist run the states or Australia? 1:21:43 Predictions for the future

Australian Treasury forecasts are indicating a slowdown in population growth post COVID. It's predicted to be the lowest since 1917. CoreLogic's Head of Research Tim Lawless unpacks the meaning of this with me. See omnystudio.com/policies/listener for privacy information.

In Episode 49, “The Big Challenge”, Blenheim Partners’ Gregory Robinson speaks to Dr Martin Parkinson AC, the Chancellor of Macquarie University. Martin served in the Commonwealth Government for almost 40 years, most recently as the Secretary of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet from 2016 to 2019 and Secretary of the Australian Treasury from 2011 to 2014. He was also Secretary of Australia’s inaugural Department of Climate Change between 2007 and 2011.Martin is currently a Non-Executive Director of Worley Ltd, North Queensland Airports and Male Champions of Change, and is a member of the Northern Territory Economic Reconstruction Commission. He previously served on the Boards of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Orica Ltd and the German Australian Chamber of Industry and Commerce and was Chair of the Australian Office of Financial Management.In this insightful conversation, Martin shares with us his views on a myriad of topics, from the inner workings of Government, the difficult task of bringing everyone together on climate policy, the impact of the pandemic on our third largest export, education, and the current dynamics in play in foreign policy. Martin and Greg address the big issues – what do we want as a society, what is important, where we are headed and the big challenge ahead.

Jason leads PwC Australia’s behavioral economics practice. He specializes in economics, evolution, and behavioral science. Previously, he was data science lead with Australia's corporate, markets, and financial services regulator, and has also worked as a lawyer and an economic policy adviser with the Australian Treasury. He has a Ph.D. from the University of Western Australia.

In Episode 41, “Open for Debate”, Blenheim Partners’ Gregory Robinson speaks to John Fraser, Chairman of AMP Capital Holdings Ltd, Director of AMP Ltd, Judo Bank, the Future Fund and Advance. John served as the Secretary to the Australian Treasury from 2015 to 2018 and before that was the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of UBS Global Asset Management based in London. He was previously a Member of the Board of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian Council of Financial Regulators, as well as the Chair of the G20 Global Infrastructure Hub and the Victorian Funds Management Corporation.In this insightful conversation, John shares with us his unique perspective on the path to recovery as we deal with the economic and social consequences of the pandemic, the incoming shifts in global markets, particularly China and the United States, as well as Australia’s vital role in addressing key geopolitical matters. Greg and John discuss the importance of open and constructive debate, which in times has been marred by unhealthy, zealous political correctness.John gives us a rare glimpse into the corridors of power, spanning from Canberra to Washington, D.C., where he had postings at the International Monetary Fund and the Australian Embassy, from London to the Middle East, in his roles with UBS Global Asset Management and UBS Saudi Arabia, and from Presidents to Prime Ministers.

Welcome to Finance and Fury, The Say What Wednesday edition This week the question from Jayden – Are CBA and other bank shares a good investment for dividends at the moment? Based around current price and un-updated yields – Based around prices and assuming dividends will continue to be the same – might say yes – end of the episode – thanks for listening – but wait - is there something else going on? Start with Some Banks are close to their post GFC prices – ex CBA – does this mean they are a good time to buy? Few things happening – The Council of Financial Regulation - (the Council) is the coordinating body for Australia's main financial regulatory agencies. There are four members: the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), the Australian Treasury and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) RBA – Governor chairs the Council and the RBA provides secretariat support. It is a non-statutory body, without regulatory or policy decision-making powers Objectives are to promote stability of the Australian financial system and support effective and efficient regulation by Australia's financial regulatory agencies. But they all have their part to play in controlling the financial system – in particular, APRA, RBA, and Treasury Recent developments – QE - RBA is ready to purchase Aus Government bonds in the secondary market Between three entities – Super funds controlled by APRA, RBA who is doing the buying, and Treasury who is doing the selling of the bonds to the super funds on the primary markets Repo Market – RBA also conducting one month and three month repo operations in the daily market – until further notice Additional Repo market – conduct repo operations of six-months maturity or longer at least weekly, as long as market conditions warrant Statement - APRA is ensuring banking institutions pre-position themselves to take advantage of the RBA's supportive measures Forcing banks to enter the repo agreements of exchanging their treasury notes for the injection of liquidity Why? They say they are wanting to support the smooth functioning of that market, which is a key pricing benchmark for the Australian financial system. The Reserve Bank and the AOFM - The Australian Office of Financial Management is a part of the Department of the Treasury. It manages the Australian Government's net debt portfolio - are in close liaison in monitoring market conditions and supporting the continued functioning of the market. Statements - Australia's financial system is resilient and it is well placed to deal with the effects of COVID-19. The banking system is well capitalised and is in a strong liquidity position. Substantial financial buffers are available to be drawn down if required to support the economy. The RBA is trying to support the liquidity of the system – this is where repos come into it – giving the banks and financial system enough cash to survive As part of this support it will be conducting one-month and three-month repurchase (repo) operations until further notice. In addition, it will. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. But the Government are the ones creating disruption to the whole economy – When they shut everything down and nothing happens – they will turn around and pat themselves on the back saying ‘good job’ we saved lives – whilst destroying livelihoods and further enshrining an autocratic financial system Interesting statements – “APRA and ASIC will take account of the circumstances in which lenders, acting reasonably, are currently operating during the prevailing circumstances when administering their respective laws and regulations. Both agencies also stand ready to deal with problems firms may encounter in complying with the law due to the impact of COVID-19 through a facilitative and constructive approach. In particular, each agency will, where warranted, provide relief or waivers from regulatory requirements. This includes requirements on listed companies associated with secondary capital raisings, annual general meetings, and audits. ASIC will also work with financial institutions to further accelerate the payment of outstanding remediation to customers as soon as possible. Second Capital Raisings – The ability of companies to raise equity capital in the virtual absence of alternative debt issuance or bank funding Is seen as an important safety valve that enables companies to reduce debt exposure and shore up balance sheets Something deeper is going on – A shortage of Dollars and funding mechanisms for the financial system – requiring the liquidity injections – all because the World has been hit with Margin Calls - $12 trillion – banking system is fragile Go back to 2009 - Fed's emergency response during the GFC - which included credit facilities backed by corporate bonds and even shares - all the way to unlimited FX swap lines with foreign central banks – all of this was in response to a massive margin call that resulted in the aftermath of the Lehman and AIG collapse – as the conventional cross-border funding pathways froze up Therefore – this forced Central banks like the Fed to step in and flood the world with dollars to avoid a catastrophic surge in the dollar as the entire world scrambled to obtain the world's reserve currency. Post GFC - the BIS published a paper titled "The US dollar shortage in global banking and the international policy response" – explains how the then Chair Ben Bernanke bailed out the entire developed world’s financial system – due to facing the dollar shortage crisis due to the sudden deflationary shockwave unleashed by the GFC – At the same time - ground the global economy, and conventional dollar funding pathways to a halt While at the same time reached all-time highs in the counterparty risk after Lehman's collapse and liquidity concerns compromised short-term interbank funding – short term loans to each of the banks – as banks didn’t trust each other – no longer would provide the contracts – why the repo market is so fragile at the moment – needing central banks to provide the funding instead of other commercial banks Wasn’t just USA – Aus and EU as well - the major European banks’ US dollar funding gap had reached $1.0–1.2 trillion by mid-2007 – but all liabilities to non-banks were estimated to be $6.5 trillion Essentially - an unprecedented crisis as a result of a global dollar margin call Had the Fed not stepped in with a barrage of liquidity-providing instruments and facilities, the rest of the world would have simply collapsed as the $6.5 trillion dollar funding gap closed in on itself - this triggered the first-ever launch of virtually unlimited dollar swap lines between the Fed and all other central banks – therefore the severity of the US dollar shortage among banks outside the United States, like Aus banks, called for an international policy response. Remember – central banks can provide their own currency – but they could not provide sufficient US dollar liquidity – which acts as the global currency reserve Requires reciprocal currency arrangements (swap lines) with the Federal Reserve in order to channel US dollars to banks in their respective jurisdictions – therefore as the funding disruptions spread to banks around the world, swap arrangements were extended across continents to central banks in Australia and New Zealand, Scandinavia, and several countries in Asia and Latin America, forming a global network The swap lines between the US Fed and RBA are there – along with the Reserve bank of NZ and every other major banks Remember – ever since the financial crisis nothing has been actually fixed in the structural issues of the financial system - instead, the Fed and now other central banks inject more liquidity every time the system gets stressed – like now But all done through the issuance of even more debt, and kicking the can down the road whilst masking the symptoms of the crisis This liquidity upon liquidity has only made the system much more reliant on the Fed's constant bailouts and liquidity injections. This can be seen by the events over the last few week - the dollar shortage is back with a vengeance, as confirmed by last week's concurrent surge in both the Bloomberg Dollar index and the FRA/OIS spread – used as an indicator of interbank dollar funding availability. As it stands - there is now - in JPMorgan's calculations - a global dollar short that has doubled since the financial crisis and was $12 trillion as of this moment, some 60% of US GDP Enter the Government responses to the novel coronavirus and subsequent oil crisis - has led to a historic run on the dollar – so the supply chains is a payment chain in reverse - an abrupt halt in production and economic output created by Governments extreme overreaction can quickly lead to missed payments elsewhere – multiplier effect – this is why we are seeing the combine rate cuts with open liquidity lines through Repo and QE and a pledge to use the swap lines   So the financial system is fragile – and the flow on effects from Governments are unknown at this stage – so Looking directly at Big 4 ASX listed banks– Fundamentals at this stage and Capital raisings – shares listed   Looking at the bank shares – their prices and Shares issued -   Price Pre GFC Post GFC Price 1 month ago Price Today Yields PE Outstanding shares growth CBA $60.00 $26.79 $88.80 $67.87 6.37% 12.28 14.16% ANZ $30.39 $12.06 $27.24 $18.39 8.70% 8.63 10.76% WBC $29.00 $14.52 $25.21 $17.54 9.97% 9.21 15.32% NAB $40.52 $17.67 $27.41 $17.45 9.51% 10.03 32.91% Revenues - Might be further rate cuts – Banks businesses rely on lending – and as lending rates drop – so does their ability to generate a return Though many in the markets spent much of last year focusing on how lower interest rates would impact bank profitability, that problem seems somewhat less pronounced in the current environment of panic and future default potentials The Net interest margins – (interest income to interest paid out, as there isn't anything paid out) – therefore this pressure may be overstated – the real threat to banks comes from the asset quality (loans) from a slowing global economy - bad debt charge forecasts for each of the major banks have been increased by $300M p.a. Real issues comes from bad debts For example- WBC - increased their bad debt charge forecasts to $1,200 million – across FY20 and FY21. ANZ - increased by $300M to be $1150M for FY20 and $1200M for FY21 Why you are seeing the Banks with Hold ratings on NAB, WBC and ANZ – CBA has Buy across a few brokers CBA is better positioned than the other big four to mitigate the impact of lower interest rates (even if its impact is overstated), a fact that potentially explains why the biggest of the big four has traded at a premium to the other banks in the last 14 months   Summary – Assumptions around buying Long term – If the central banks can provide enough liquidity and that defaults on loans don’t become prevalent – yes – banks should recover in prices Dividends – may have to cut from here – but still technically a good dividend payment even if a 30% drop – down to 7% FF in a lot of cases I view bank shares as good-paying Term Deposits with Franking credits – don’t view them as good long term growth companies – competitive markets But the prices from here – depending on the central banks kicking the can down the road – do have the ability to drop in further panic Thank you for listening to today's episode. If you want to get in contact you can do so here: http://financeandfury.com.au/contact/  

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the investor mood yo-yo is still in full evidence.First up, American mortgage rates tumbled to an all-time low, with their 30 year fixed rate now at 3.29% (plus points).And American factory orders fell -½% in January and that now makes it a fall in five of the past six months. Year-on-year, January orders showed zero growth.Job cuts haven't yet become widespread in the US despite the economic wavering, but they have in one industry - tech. More than 10,000 tech job cuts were announced in February in the US compared with virtually zero in the same month in 2019. Large companies are pulling back and many more tech start-ups are folding. It’s a development that may be leading many other industries.In fact, equity markets are falling sharply again as the swift spread of the coronavirus in the United States led one state to declare an emergency, while airline stocks were hammered by crippled travel demand. Airline closures are starting. [Advert]And here is a message from our friends at Hatch.The foundation of sound investing is all about the ability to minimise risk by spreading investments across sectors, industries and companies.Exchange-traded funds that track market indexes like the S&P 500 offer everyday investors – like you – the benefit of diverse holdings in the largest 500 companies listed on stock exchanges in the US.Hatch gives you can access more than 500 ETFs from BlackRock’s megatrend ETFs to Vanguards Total Stock Market Index fund.Visit www.hatch.as/investing to easily diversify your portfolio. The S&P500 is currently down by -3.4% in mid-afternoon trade, reversing yesterday's gains and continuing the yo-yo trend. Equity investors show all the signs of confusion, unlike their bond counterparts who have consistently been strongly risk-averse. Overnight, European markets fell about -1.5%. Yesterday, Hong Kong (+2.1%) and Tokyo (+1.1%) closed sharply positive, and Shanghai came in with a +2.0% gain. The NZX50 was up +2.0% and the ASX200 up +1.1%. But these gains seem unlikely to be repeated today.The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. There are now 16,472 cases outside China, a rise of +2491 in one day as the numbers keep on jumping in South Korea, Italy and Iran. 12,690 are in those three countries (77%). A week ago that outside-China number was 3337 so it is still quadrupling in a week. Inside China, the growth of reported cases has stopped. But global deaths are now up to 3305 and 3014 are in China (91%).The WHO says most countries are not doing enough to combat the spread of the virus, and that "the experience of ... China continues to demonstrate that this is not a one-way street." Inside the US, even if the Federal authorities are not really engaged, one state, California, has declared an emergency. This is big news as it is their largest state and accounts for 12% of the nation's population. An initial clinical study suggests some key data on its likely impact if it gets into the general population. It would not be good.And one 'environmental' trend that may get undone is the use of reusable food containers - safety in foodservice may require the return of one-use disposables.The January trade surplus in Australia came in much better than expected at +AU$5.2 bln (when +AU$4.8 bln was the expected level). But this was not as good as the record AU$8.1 bln in June 2019. In the year to January, the Aussie trade surplus was AU$68.4 bln (and a hugely impressive +4.6% of GDP) and far above the +1.9% of GDP in the year to January 2019.But the good times won't last. The Australian Treasury estimates that the global virus emergency will take twice as much out of the Aussie economy as their bush fires did, and sapping it of -AU$34 bln or -0.5%.The UST 10yr yield is down yet again, now under 0.91%, a new record low and down another -6 bps overnight. Gold is risen sharply today, up +US21 to US$1,663/oz.US oil prices are lower by -US$1 to just under US$46.50/bbl. The Brent benchmark is at just under US$50.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today firmer at 63 USc. On the cross rates we are also firmer at 95.5 AUc. Against the euro we little-changed at 56.3 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is marginally higher at 68.2.Bitcoin is up, gaining +4.8% since this time yesterday at US$9,101.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.Get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz and subscribe to receive this podcast in your favourite podcast app - we're on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify or subscribe on our website.Tell your friends and leave us a review - we welcome feedback.

This episode we are pleased to present another interview with a senior Australian policymaker. Dr. David Gruen is Deputy Secretary, Economic at the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, and Australia’s G20 Sherpa. David is an economist and has previously worked at the Australian Treasury and the Reserve Bank of Australia. The discussion therefore revolves around the economic dimensions of Australia’s place in the world and international affairs generally. Allan begins the interview with David’s high-profile role as Australia’s G20 Sherpa. What does the Sherpa actually do, and what is David’s assessment of the recent G20 Leaders’ Summit in Osaka? Darren wonders whether the G20’s loose structure represents the most likely model of international cooperation in the 21st century, even if it’s not always effective. The discussion then pivots to the global economy, where David offers some reflections on what has surprised him over the years, before addressing the specific tensions between the US and China and the question of decoupling. Darren asks for David’s perspective on the domestic sources of hostility to the rules-based order, and the conversation finishes on the topic of “economics versus security” in Australian foreign policy. David offers some novel and interesting insights, and highlights the efforts of his department to integrate advice that is grounded in these different perspectives more effectively into the policymaking process. As always, we invite our listeners to email us at this address: australia.world.pod@gmail.com We welcome feedback, requests and suggestions. You can also contact Darren on twitter @limdarrenj Our thanks go to AIIA intern Charlie Henshall for his help with audio editing, Rory Stenning for composing our theme music, and Martyn Pearce for technical assistance in studio. Relevant links David Gruen, “The G20 at Ten: Past, Progess and Prospects”, Speech at the Lowy Institute, November 2018: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/g20-ten-past-progress-and-prospects G20 Osaka Leaders’ Statement on Preventing Exploitation of the Internet for Terrorism and Violent Extremism Conducive to Terrorism: https://g20.org/en/documents/final_g20_statement_on_preventing_terrorist_and_vect.html Jonathan Kearns and Philip Lowe, “Australia's Prosperous 2000s: Housing and the Mining Boom”, Research Discussion Paper 2011-07, Reserve Bank of Australia, December 2011: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2011/2011-07.html Philip Tetlock, “Expert political judgment”, Goodreads Overview: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/89158.Expert_Political_Judgment David Gruen, “Collective animosities or cooperation?”, Speech at Symposium discussing ‘Asia’s Response to the Trade War’, Tokyo, December 2018: https://www.pmc.gov.au/news-centre/pmc/keynote-speech-dr-david-gruen-collective-animosities-or-cooperation Ben Bernanke, “When growth is not enough”, Speech at the European Central Bank Forum, June 2017: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/es_20170626_whengrowthisnotenough.pdf Mark Davis, “Outside the bubble”, Sydney Morning Herald, 19 September 2009: https://www.smh.com.au/business/outside-the-bubble-20090918-fvgm.html

This week on the Democracy Sausage podcast, Mark Kenny chats to John Hewson, Katrine Beauregard, Jill Sheppard, and Paul Pickering about a campaign week dominated by water, the economy, religion, and relentless spending commitments. Will climate change be the defining issue of the Australian election campaign? Has Labor been too bold with campaign promises? And which leader would you prefer to have a beer with? Those are just some of the questions tackled in episode two of Mark Kenny’s Democracy Sausage podcast. Mark and the panel - John Hewson, Katrine Beauregard, Jill Sheppard, and Paul Pickering - also discuss whether a surplus should be seen as a measure of economic success, whether voters have already made up their minds, and what the campaign has in common with a Peter Cook and Dudley Moore sketch. Mark Kenny is a Senior Fellow in the ANU Australian Studies Institute. He came to the university after a high-profile journalistic career including six years as chief political correspondent and national affairs editor for The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, and The Canberra Times. Dr Katrine Beauregard is a lecturer in the ANU School of Politics and International Relations. Her work focuses on political behaviour, and why people vote the way they do. She is particularly interested in gender gaps when it comes to political participation and the factors that influence this, as well as how political institutions can be used to include marginalised groups in the political process. Dr John Hewson is a former Federal Opposition Leader who is now Professor and Chair in the Tax and Transfer Policy Institute at Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University. John is an economic and financial expert with experience in academia, business, government, media and the financial system. He has worked as an economist for the Australian Treasury, the Reserve Bank, the International Monetary Fund and as an advisor to two successive Federal Treasurers and the Prime Minister. Professor Paul Pickering is the Director of the ANU Australian Studies Institute. Paul's research and teaching interests are very broad. He has published extensively on Australian, British and Irish social, political and cultural history as well as biography, public memory and commemoration and the study of reenactment as an historical method. Dr Jill Sheppard is a political scientist at the School of Politics and International Relations at the Australian National University. Her research focuses on why people participate in politics, what opinions they hold and why, and how both are shaped by political institutions and systems.  Democracy Sausage with Mark Kenny is available on iTunes, Spotify, Google Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. We’d love to hear your feedback for this podcast series! Send in your questions, comments, or suggestions for future episodes to podcast@policyforum.net. You can also Tweet us @APPSPolicyForum or join us on the Facebook group. This podcast extra is part of Policy Forum’s Australian Election coverage, and published in partnership with The Australian National University. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

1. Italy proves bail-in is a disaster— Australian Treasury should come clean on their plans for it 2. The EU: You can check out, but you can never leave! Presented by Elisa Barwick and Craig Isherwood. *** DEADLINE - 12 APRIL *** Write your submission to the Senate Economics Legislation Committee to support the Bill for Bank Separation. Details at: http://www.cecaust.com.au/pass-glass-steagall

This year marks the 10th anniversary of the global financial crisis and the elevation of the G20 to a leader-level forum. Ten years on, has the G20 fulfilled its promise of improving global economic cooperation, particularly in the current environment of rising geopolitical tension and trade frictions? With only a few weeks until the Buenos Aires Summit, Dr David Gruen, Australia’s G20 Sherpa, discussed the role of the G20 in the global economic order, including its progress since 2008 and prospects for the future. Dr David Gruen is the Deputy Secretary, Economic, at the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, and G20 Sherpa. Before joining the Department in September 2014, he was Executive Director of The Macroeconomic Group at the Australian Treasury.

My first guest on "The Examined Life" podcast is "The Mentor Himself" - Mark Bouris. Mark Bouris is one of Australia's most successful and respectful businessmen. ⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀ Mark has established a successful career from building disruptive businesses to challenge the market and provide smarter solutions for consumers. Mark's current positions include Executive Chairman of Yellow Brick Road Group, Non-Executive Director of TZ Limited and Non-Executive Director of The Sydney Roosters Football Club. ⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀ In 2015, Mark was appointed a Member of the Order of Australia for significant service to the finance industry and tertiary education and has most recently acted as Chairman of the Taskforce into Digitisation of Small Businesses in Australia for the Australian Treasury. ⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀ ⠀⠀⠀ Mark has created a new TV show along with Channel 7 called The Mentor which aired in April this year and coincides with The Mentor podcast and www.mentored.com.au www.mattpurcell.com

Jeb Lund and Tim Batt chew over Trump's new tax woes with a unique look drawing on Tim's experience in the NZ tax department and an Aussie blogger who happens to be a former Australian Treasury worker. Also this episode, the upcoming Vice Presidential Debate and it's not super doper interesting participants. Also, former Miss Universe-turned-Clinton-surrogate Alicia Machado and her very fascinating past!

Speaker: Paul Flanagan, Visiting Fellow, Development Policy Centre, Crawford School, ANU. Papua New Guinea will need to make some substantial adjustments in its budget and exchange rate settings to avoid the twin risks of an economic crisis similar to the ones it faced in the 1990s and a further growth slowdown. Investment ratings agencies Moodys as well as Standard and Poors have moved PNG’s outlook to negative; the PNG Treasury mid-year budget document showed 20 per cent of planned revenue was no longer likely; large expenditure cuts have been foreshadowed by the government; economic activity is slowing; and businesses are finding it hard to get foreign exchange. In this public seminar, Mr Paul Flanagan – a visiting fellow at the Development Policy Centre, a former senior executive at the Australian Treasury, and former senior advisor to the PNG Treasury – presented the challenges facing PNG in a historic and international context, and outlined the options. In particular, revenue, expenditure and financing options. This public seminar was presented by the Development Policy Centre at Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University. Presentation: https://devpolicy.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/events/attachments/2015-10/10_-_26_oct_pathways_from_potential_crisis.pdf

To try and avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change, 190 countries have committed to limiting global temperature increase to below 2°C. To achieve this, 60-80% of the world’s existing carbon or fossil fuel reserves need to stay in the ground. Nevertheless, billions of dollars of investments in coal, oil and gas have gone ahead, resting on the speculative bubble of climate change denial or delay. If these assets become stranded by climate action, their revaluation could trigger the next (larger) global financial crisis. So, what’s at risk? Our economy and your retirement savings. Australia’s economy depends on coal exports and around 55% of your superannuation is invested in high-carbon, high-risk assets. Our political system looks chronically incapable of dealing with climate change—but can we trust our financial institutions to do better?John Hewson is the former leader of the Liberal Party of Australia and Chair of the Asset Owners Disclosure Project. He has worked as an economist for the Australian Treasury, the Reserve Bank, the International Monetary Fund and also as an advisor to two successive Federal Treasurers and the Prime Minister.John Hewson appears with the support of The Climate Institute.

On 23 September the Lowy Institute for International Policy, in cooperation with the Indonesia Project at the Australian National University, hosted a 'Mini Update on Indonesia'. The Indonesia Update has been an annual event in Canberra since 1983. This is the eighth time we have held a Sydney version. This Update evaluated the latest developments in the Indonesian economy and political system, as well as regional developments. Following the event we chatted with some of the participants about the papers they presented. This conversation features Sam Roggeveen, editor of the Lowy Institute's Interpreter blog, speaking with Jason Allford from the Australian Treasury and Indonesia economist Dr Moekti Soejachmoen about the current state of the Indonesian economy. The audio from the full event is available here: http://soundcloud.com/lowyinstitute/indonesia-mini-update

Australian Treasury releases draft legislation for extending Petroleum Resource Rent Tax -- Australia releases shipping industry tax reform package; zero rate for Australian ship operators -- Hong Kong Inland Revenue considers R&D must be carried on directly by taxpayer for deduction -- Hungary submits 2012 tax bill to Parliament -- Draft Russia-Luxembourg protocol details available -- Canadian panel issues final R&D recommendations -- Mexico's IETU tax credit for maquiladoras extended