Podcasts about Probability

Episode 126: In this episode of Critical Thinking - Bug Bounty Podcast we wrap up Rez0's AI miniseries ‘Vulnus Ex Machina'. Part 3 includes a showcase of AI Vulns that Rez0 himself has found, and how much they paid out.Follow us on twitter at: https://x.com/ctbbpodcastGot any ideas and suggestions? Feel free to send us any feedback here: info@criticalthinkingpodcast.ioShoutout to YTCracker for the awesome intro music!====== Links ======Follow your hosts Rhynorater and Rez0 on Twitter: https://x.com/Rhynoraterhttps://x.com/rez0__====== Ways to Support CTBBPodcast ======Hop on the CTBB Discord at https://ctbb.show/discord!We also do Discord subs at $25, $10, and $5 - premium subscribers get access to private masterclasses, exploits, tools, scripts, un-redacted bug reports, etc.You can also find some hacker swag at https://ctbb.show/merch!Today's Sponsor - ThreatLocker Web Controlhttps://www.criticalthinkingpodcast.io/tl-webcontrol====== Resources ======Claude Code System PromptAttacking AI AgentsProbability of HacksNew Gemini for Workspace Vulnerability Enabling Phishing & Content ManipulationHow to Hack AI Agents and Applications====== Timestamps ======(00:00:00) Introduction(00:02:53) NahamCon Recap, Claude news, and wunderwuzzi writeups (00:08:57) Probability of Hacks(00:11:27) First AI Vulnerabilities(00:18:57) AI Vulns on Google (00:25:11) Invisible prompt Injection

Seth and Sean get petty about the Astros broadcast continuing to bring up this BS catch probability stat, Mad Dog being petty about the Knicks firing Thibs, Brian Windhorst saying the USA vs the World All-Star game plan in the NBA is a way to shame the players into participating, and Kirk Minihane yelling at his producer.

Could the architecture of the mind truly contain the code for future events? Is it plausible that consciousness can learn to navigate its own internal projections as if they were real places, or that our deepest urges are but echoes of a timeless, universal script?​​If you are having a mental health crisis and need immediate help, please go to ​ ​​https://troubledminds.org/help/ and call somebody right now. Reaching out for support is a sign of strength. ​ ​​​LIVE ON Digital Radio! Http://bit.ly/40KBtlW ​ ​ ​​http://www.troubledminds.net or ​ ​​https://www.troubledminds.org ​ ​Support The Show! ​ ​ ​https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/troubled-minds-radio--4953916/support ​ ​​https://ko-fi.com/troubledminds ​ ​​https://patreon.com/troubledminds ​ ​​https://www.buymeacoffee.com/troubledminds ​ ​​https://troubledfans.com ​ ​Friends of Troubled Minds! - ​ ​ ​https://troubledminds.org/friends ​ ​Show Schedule Sun--Tues--Thurs--Fri 7-10pst ​iTunes - ​ ​​https://apple.co/2zZ4hx6 ​Spotify - ​ ​​https://spoti.fi/2UgyzqM ​TuneIn - ​ ​​https://bit.ly/2FZOErS ​Twitter - ​ ​​https://bit.ly/2CYB71U​​​----------------------------------------​​https://troubledminds.substack.com/p/architects-of-probability-from-dopamine​​https://neurosciencenews.com/dopamine-future-reward-29218/​​https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gnosis_(chaos_magic)​​https://www.verywellmind.com/what-are-jungs-4-major-archetypes-2795439​​https://traumaresearchuk.org/ras-reticular-activating-system/​​

Preview: Colleague Bob Zimmerman updates the probability of the Andromeda Galaxy colliding with our Milky Way. More later. UNDATED

Have you ever projected a player to get 23.2 points and wondered if under 24.5 -115 was a +EV bet?The answer to this question and more can be found in this magic, exciting, adrenaline pumping thing called...distributions!This week the lads follow up their episode on making your own numbers with an episode on how to turn those numbers into probabilities. And the news section gets very speculative as GP returns to gambling twitter to research a story that intersects the sports betting and poker worlds.0:00 Intro3:50 Distributions1:02:31 Illinois Tax Hike1:18:44 Poker Scandal1:39:33 Q&AWelcome to The Risk Takers Podcast, hosted by professional sports bettor John Shilling (GoldenPants13) and SportsProjections. This podcast is the best betting education available - PERIOD. And it's free - please share and subscribe if you like it.My website: https://www.goldenpants.com/ Follow SportsProjections on Twitter: https://x.com/Sports__ProjWant to work with my betting group?: john@goldenpants.comWant 100s of +EV picks a day?: https://www.goldenpants.com/gp-picks

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On this episode, I chat with Victor Shih about all things China. We discuss China's massive local debt crisis, the CCP's views on AI, what happens after Xi, and more.Victor Shih is an expert on the Chinese political system, as well as their banking and fiscal policies, and he has amassed more biographical data on the Chinese elite than anyone else in the world. He teaches at UC San Diego, where he also directs the 21st Century China Center.Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.Sponsors* Scale is building the infrastructure for smarter, safer AI. In addition to their Data Foundry, they just released Scale Evaluation, a tool that diagnoses model limitations. Learn how Scale can help you push the frontier at scale.com/dwarkesh.* WorkOS is how top AI companies ship critical enterprise features without burning months of engineering time. If you need features like SSO, audit logs, or user provisioning, head to workos.com.To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.Timestamps(00:00:00) – Is China more decentralized than the US?(00:03:16) – How the Politburo Standing Committee makes decisions(00:21:07) – Xi's right hand man in charge of AGI(00:35:37) – DeepSeek was trained to track CCP policy(00:45:35) – Local government debt crisis(00:50:00) – BYD, CATL, & financial repression(00:58:12) – How corruption leads to overbuilding(01:10:46) – Probability of Taiwan invasion(01:18:56) – Succession after Xi(01:25:10) – Future growth forecasts Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

Segment 1: Jack Ablin, Chief Investment Officer and Founding Partner, Cresset Capital, talks to John about the big takeaways from Moody’s credit downgrade, the trade agreement between China and the U.S., and the likelihood of a recession in 2025. Segment 2: Phil Mikhaylov, Founder / CEO, Unicorn Auctions, talks to John about their auction platform for […]

Welcome to this week's episode of The Mixtape with Scott. Today's podcast guest is our 127th guest on the show—Vitor Possebom, Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics at the Fundação Getulio Vargas. Vitor's research sits at the intersection of two areas — econometrics and causal inference, and policy evaluation in Latin America, particularly Brazil. His contributions revolve around refining and extending tools for estimating causal effects in observational data, especially under common data imperfections like selection bias, measurement error, and treatment effect heterogeneity.* Sample selection and marginal treatment effects (e.g., “Identifying Marginal Treatment Effects in the Presence of Sample Selection” (Journal of Econometrics), “Crime and Mismeasured Punishment” (Review of Economics and Statistics))* Misclassification and measurement error (e.g., “Potato Potahto in the FAO-GAEZ Productivity Measures?”)* Inference and sensitivity in synthetic control methods (e.g., “Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls”, “Synthetic Control Method: Inference, Sensitivity Analysis and Confidence Sets”)* Probability of causation in non-experimental settings (e.g., “Probability of Causation with Sample Selection”)I invited Vitor onto the podcast because of his creative contributions to causal inference, as he fits into a larger informal series I've been for the last several years on causal inference in general. In today's conversation, we talk about Vitor's path from Brazil to Yale University and then back. Vitor, thank you so much for joining us.Scott's Mixtape Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Scott's Mixtape Substack at causalinf.substack.com/subscribe

Every time you see an apple spontaneously break away from a tree, it falls downward. You therefore claim that there is a law of physics: apples fall downward from trees. But how can you really know? After all, tomorrow you might see an apple that falls upward. How is science possible at all? Philosophers, as you might expect, have thought hard about this. Branden Fitelson explains how a better understanding of probability can help us decide when new evidence is actually confirming our beliefs.Blog post with transcript: https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2025/05/19/315-branden-fitelson-on-the-logic-and-use-of-probability/Support Mindscape on Patreon.Branden Fitelson received a Ph.D. in philosophy from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is currently Distinguished Professor of Philosophy at Northeastern University. He is a co-founder of the Formal Epistemology Workshop, and winner of the 2020 Wolfram Innovator Award.Web siteNortheastern web pagePhilPapers profileGoogle Scholar publicationsWikipediaSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

May 19, 2025 - Season 15, Episode 135 of The Terrible Podcast is now in the can. In this Monday morning episode, which was recorded Sunday night, Alex Kozora and I get right into talking about the latest rumor concerning the Pittsburgh Steelers possibly trading for New Orleans Saints WR Chris Olave. Alex and I look at all angles related to Olave and that includes his contract, his health, the Saints wide receiver depth chart, and much more. We go over what a few beat writers that cover the Saints think about the possibility of Olave being traded as well. As a whole, Alex and I come to the conclusion that the Steelers are very unlikely to trade for Olave this summer. Alex and I then go over a short list of wide receivers that the Steelers might consider trading for this offseason if Olave winds up being unobtainable. Will and should the Steelers sign WR Calvin Austin III to a contract extension this offseason? Alex and I attempt to answer those questions during this show. We also look at the overall probability that Austin will be signed to an extension this offseason. We discuss what a strong 2025 season would look like for Austin as well. Is there a drop-dead date for veteran free agent QB Aaron Rodgers when it comes to the Steelers needing a decision from him? Alex and I attempt to answer that question during this show. Alex and I later provide our top-five outside additions the Steelers have made so far this offseason either through free agency or the draft. Much later in this show, Alex and I discuss the possibility of rookie QB Will Howard seeing playing time in 2025 based on history of third-string quarterbacks being needed around the NFL in recent seasons. This 83-minute episode also discusses several other minor topics not noted in the recap as well. We end this show by answering several emails we received from listeners of the show. steelersdepot.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As a CFO, how should the way you navigate risk and return change from venture-backed companies to publicly-traded companies to private equity companies? To answer this question, CJ speaks with Mohit Daswani, a seasoned CFO with experience across multiple stages, including roles as CFO of Payments, Platform, and Risk at PayPal, and Head of Finance & Strategy at Square. Mohit shares the lessons learned from his time at Square, including when Jack Dorsey seeded a second billion-dollar business from within the company, and his experience at PayPal when they spun out from eBay under activist pressure. The conversation also covers the Rule of 40 in the different financial models, the dangers of using valuation as a scorecard, how founders should reset their mindset on what defines success, and the likelihood of a super app for the USA.—LINKS:Mohit Daswani on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mohitdaswani1/SimplePractice: https://www.simplepractice.com/CJ on X (@cjgustafson222): https://x.com/cjgustafson222Mostly metrics: http://mostlymetrics.comRELATED EPISODES:From CF-No to CF-Go: Serial CFO Michael Bayer's Guide to Hypergrowth: Inside Grab: How a Super App Transformed Southeast Asia — with CFO Peter Oey: —Timestamps:(00:00) Preview and Intro(02:42) Sponsor – Planful | Tabs | Rippling Spend(06:36) Mohit's Office and a Tip From Churchill(09:07) Risk and Return in Different Investment Models(13:05) Financial Discipline Versus Room for Growth in Venture-Backed Companies(16:30) Sponsor – Pulley | Tropic | NetSuite(20:25) Balancing Short-Term Performance and Long-Term Bets in the PE Space(24:00) The Rule of 40 in Different Financial Models(30:19) What People Get Wrong About the Private Equity Model(34:40) The Benefits of Using Leverage(37:41) The Dangers of Using Valuation as a Scorecard(41:41) How Founders Should Reset Their Mindset on What Constitutes Success(44:00) Being at Square When Jack Dorsey Seeded a Second Billion-Dollar Business(49:43) Being at PayPal When They Spun Out From eBay(53:59) PayPal's Acquisition of Braintree(55:48) The Probability of a Super App for the USA(58:38) Learnings From Launching PayPal's Payments Dongle in Japan(1:04:12) Long-Ass Lightning Round: A Flight Mistake(1:06:20) Advice to Younger Self(1:07:31) Finance Software Stack(1:09:28) Craziest Expense Story—SPONSORS:Planful's financial planning software can transform your FP&A function. Built for speed, accuracy, and confidence, you'll be planning your way to success and have time left over to actually put it to work. Find out more at www.planful.com/metrics.Tabs is a platform that brings all of your revenue-facing data and workflows - billing, AR, payments, rev rec, and reporting - onto a single system so you can automate and be more flexible. Find out more at: tabs.inc/metrics.Rippling Spend is a spend management software that gives you complete visibility and automated policy controls across every type of spend, saving you time and money. Get a demo to see how much time your org would save at rippling.com/metrics.Pulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: pulley.com/mostlymetrics.Tropic is an intelligent spend management solution that consolidates your spend data and processes into one unified offering, enabling insights and decisive action. Take control of your spend with intelligent spend management at tropicapp.io/mostlymetrics.NetSuite is an AI-powered business management suite, encompassing ERP/Financials, CRM, and ecommerce for more than 41,000 customers. If you're looking for an ERP, head to https://netsuite.com/metrics and get the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine Learning.#VentureCapital #PrivateEquity #RiskManagement #RuleOf40 #PayPal Get full access to Mostly metrics at www.mostlymetrics.com/subscribe

On Today's show Shannon is joined by filmmaker Austin Wolff to discuss his new film, Wally Jackson and the Probability of Love and Car Accidents.  Today's jargon is Authentic Representation.

May 19, 2025 - Zach and Chase break down the daily dots from today's action. Register now for Zach's upcoming live webinar - this Thursday. Sign up at KnowYourRiskRadio.com. 

Jeffrey and Cindy came to me with $3 million saved and one big question: How much can we actually spend in retirement? In this video, we walk through a retirement planning scenario—looking at spending goals, taxes, travel, healthcare, and how Social Security might factor in.While the numbers vary, the framework we use applies whether you're working with $300,000 or $30 million. We explore how to think about sustainable withdrawal rates, portfolio flexibility, and trade-offs between spending today and planning for tomorrow.This isn't just about getting by—it's about using what you've saved to live intentionally. And just as important, it's about avoiding the regret of leaving money (and meaningful experiences) unused.If you're thinking about how to align your spending with your values in retirement, this conversation is for you.Questions we explore:How can I estimate a sustainable spending level in retirement?How do I balance enjoying life now with preserving assets for the future? Submit your request to join James:On the Ready For Retirement podcast: Apply HereOn a Retirement Makeover episode: Apply HereTimestamps:0:00 - Jeffrey and Cindy's plan3:24 - Understand cash flows5:45 - Projected portfolio withdrawals7:22 - Probability of success9:26 - Monitor your withdrawal rate11:12 - Key takeaway13:26 - Wrap-upCreate Your Custom Strategy ⬇️ Get Started Here.Join the new Root Collective HERE!

Fixed income portfolio manager Connor Fitzgerald joins host Amar Reganti to discuss the potential effects of tariffs and other fiscal decisions on the bond market.2:20 Liberation Day fallout5:10 Tariffs as taxes7:40 Breaking down market impacts10:10 Structural increase in term premia12:45 Inflation breakeven signals15:55 Probability of recession19:00 Managing fixed income portfolios

Learn how to build a business that fits your lifestyle and goals! Discover practical strategies for success and designing your dream business.

Bookwaves/Artwaves presents in-depth interviews with authors of fiction and narrative non-fiction, delving deeply into political and social issues, literary technique, and the life of the author, along with interviews devoted to theatre and film, and archive interviews from Bookwaves and Probabilities. Hosted by Richard Wolinsky. The post Bookwaves/Artwaves – May 8, 2025 appeared first on KPFA.

In this episode of In-Ear Insights, the Trust Insights podcast, Katie and Chris discuss codependency on generative AI and the growing risks of over-relying on generative AI tools like ChatGPT. You’ll discover the hidden dangers when asking AI for advice, especially concerning health, finance, or legal matters. You’ll learn why AI’s helpful answers aren’t always truthful and how outdated information can mislead you. You’ll grasp powerful prompting techniques to guide AI towards more accurate and relevant results. You’ll find strategies to use AI more critically and avoid potentially costly mistakes. Watch the full episode for essential strategies to navigate AI safely and effectively! Watch the video here: Can’t see anything? Watch it on YouTube here. Listen to the audio here: https://traffic.libsyn.com/inearinsights/tipodcast-codependency-on-generative-ai-chatgpt.mp3 Download the MP3 audio here. Need help with your company’s data and analytics? Let us know! Join our free Slack group for marketers interested in analytics! [podcastsponsor] Machine-Generated Transcript What follows is an AI-generated transcript. The transcript may contain errors and is not a substitute for listening to the episode. Christopher S. Penn – 00:00 In this week’s In Ear Insights, let’s talk about the way that people are prompting generative AI tools like ChatGPT. I saw my friend Rebecca the other day was posting about how she had asked ChatGPT about a bunch of nutritional supplements she was taking and some advice for them. And I immediately went, oh, stop. We have three areas where we do not just ask generative AI for information because of the way the model is trained. Those areas are finance, law and health. In those areas, they’re high risk areas. If you’re asking ChatGPT for advice without providing good data, the answers are really suspect. Katie, you also had some thoughts about how you’re seeing people using ChatGPT on LinkedIn. Katie Robbert – 00:55 Well, I was saying this morning that it’s hard to go on LinkedIn. LinkedIn is where we’re all trying to connect with each other professionally, be thought leaders, share our experience. But it’s so hard for me personally, and this is my own opinion because every time I open LinkedIn the first thing I see is a post that says, “Today I asked ChatGPT.” Every post starts with, “So I was talking with ChatGPT.” “ChatGPT was telling me this morning.” And the codependency that I’m seeing being built with these tools is alarming to me and I’m oversimplifying it, but I don’t see these tools as any better than when you were just doing an Internet search. What I mean by that is the quality of the data is not necessarily better. Katie Robbert – 01:49 They can do more bells and whistles, they have more functions, they can summarize things, they can do backflips and create images and whatever. But the data is not different. You’re not getting better quality data. If anything, you’re probably getting more junk because you’re not asking specific questions like you would to a search engine. Because if you don’t ask a specific question to a search engine, you get junk back. So it forces you to be more detailed. With these generative AI being used as a quasi search, you don’t have to be specific. You’re still going to get a very long detailed answer back that’s going to look legit. And what I’m seeing, the thing that I’m concerned about is people are—the first thing they’re doing in the morning is they’re opening ChatGPT. Katie Robbert – 02:45 And this is not a knock at ChatGPT or OpenAI. This is just, I’m seeing it as the common name thrown around. People are opening a generative AI instance and having a conversation with it first thing in the morning. And I’m alarmed by that because the codependency means we’re not doing our research, we’re not having original thought, and we’re overly reliant on the software to do the work for us. Christopher S. Penn – 03:14 And that’s very much human nature, or just nature in general. Nature always prefers the path of least resistance, even if it’s not correct, it’s easier. And in the macro environment that we’re in, in 2025, where truth kind of takes a backseat to vibes, as it were, that behavior makes total sense. In fact, there was a paper that came out not too long ago that said that the number one use case—finance, health and law—the number one use case of ChatGPT outside of the marketing world and business world is people using it as a therapist. You can. If it’s properly primed and prompted and with therapeutic supervision from a real human therapist, yes, you can. Christopher S. Penn – 04:03 I guarantee no one using it like that is doing any of those things. Katie Robbert – 04:06 No, you can’t. Because of that second part of the statement. The people who are likely using these tools as a therapist aren’t building them in such a way that it is a qualified proxy for a human therapist. Now, humans make mistakes. Humans are flawed, and so that’s not to say that going to a human therapist is going to solve your problem. It’s a complicated question, but a human therapist is going to do a better job of knowing what is in scope and out of scope in terms of the context of the conversation. And so, if, let’s say, Chris, one morning I think I need a therapy session. Katie Robbert – 04:57 I’m going to turn to the nearest generative AI tool and say, hey, I’m kind of feeling down today. What can I do to get out of this funk? It’s going to start giving me advice and it’s going to start telling me things that I should do. And if I don’t know any better, I’m just going to start blindly following this advice, which could actually be detrimental to my health, to my mental health, and possibly my physical health. Because what happens if I say something like, I’ve been having very tense conversations with someone in my life and I don’t know how to approach it? This generative AI system isn’t going to say, hey, are you in danger? Do you need some sort of intervention from law enforcement or medical intervention? Katie Robbert – 05:46 It’s just going to say, here are some tips on navigating a difficult conversation with someone and I’m going to blindly follow it and try to navigate my way through a very tense situation with no supervision, which could have life threatening results. That’s more of an extreme, but people actually look for that information on the Internet, how to get out of a bad situation. What can I do that in a non violent way to work with someone, whatever the thing is. And now granted, we have the luxury of mostly staying in the B2B marketing realm or sort of in the verticals and operations and business, but it would be irresponsible of us not to acknowledge that there is a world outside of the business that we’re in. Christopher S. Penn – 06:41 When we think about people’s codependency on AI and the way that they’re approaching it relatively naively and accepting what AI gives them because they’re overwhelmed in every other part of their lives and they’re thinking, finally, an answer tool! Just give me the answer. I don’t even care if the answer is right. I just want the answer so that I don’t have one more thing on my to do list to do. How do you help people navigate that, Katie? How do you help people be thoughtful in its use and accept that it is not the Wizard of Oz? You do have to pull back the curtain, look behind the curtain. Katie Robbert – 07:19 I’m not going to be able to give you a blanket answer to that question because a lot of it involves trust between humans. And so if you’re asking me how I would help someone, first of all, they have to trust me enough to let me help. Not everyone knows what kind of things they’re overwhelmed by. I am someone who happens to be self aware to a fault. So I know the things that I’m overwhelmed by. But that doesn’t mean that I can necessarily get out of my own way. Katie Robbert – 07:54 And it doesn’t mean that if an easy solution to a problem is presented to me, I’m not going to take it. So if I’m overwhelmed one day and a generative AI system says, hey, I can answer 3 of those 7 questions for you. That actually sounds really appealing. My emotional brain has taken over. My logical brain isn’t going to be, Katie, maybe you should check the answers on those. My emotional brain is, yes, let’s just get those things done. I don’t care. I will deal with the consequences later. So it’s a complicated question, and I can’t give you an answer other than we have to keep trying our best as humans to be present in the moment when you’re using these tools. Katie Robbert – 08:40 And I know this, and I promise this was not me segueing into an opportunity to bring this up. But there’s a reason that the five P’s exist. And let me explain. The five P’s are meant to—if you’re overwhelmed and you’re thinking, let me just turn to generative AI to get the answer, let’s just stop. Think of the five P’s in that instance, almost like a breathing exercise to get your wits about you. And so it’s, okay, what is my purpose? What is the problem I think I’m trying to solve? And you don’t have to have all the answers to these questions, but it gives you an opportunity to slow down and think through what am I about to look for? So let’s say in this instance, let’s just use this example that we’ve been talking about. Katie Robbert – 09:25 Let’s say I’m looking to have a therapy session. I just really need to talk to someone. Okay. I’m having a rough day. I’m feeling kind of overwhelmed. So I want to get some thoughts out of my system. That’s my purpose. The people is me. And then maybe there’s some other people in my life that have been causing this anxiety, but maybe I don’t feel like I have someone to talk to. So I’m going to use a generative AI system as a stand-in. My process—well, that’s a really good question. Do I just say, hey, I need some therapy today, or, hey, I want to talk? Whatever it is, maybe that’s my process. The platform is whatever generative AI system I have handy. And then the performance is, do I feel better? Katie Robbert – 10:12 Was I able to get to some resolution? Now that sounds, oh, okay, well, they’re going to do it anyway. But just like a breathing exercise, the goal of using the 5Ps is to calm your mind a little bit, put your thoughts together, sit back and go, is this a good idea? Should I be doing this? And so in business, in your life, this is why I always say the five P’s are there for any situation. And it doesn’t have to be in depth. It’s really there to help you organize your thoughts. Christopher S. Penn – 10:49 One of the reasons why this is so problematic from a technical perspective is what’s called latent space knowledge. This is the training data that models have been trained on. And in the case of today’s models, for example, Alibaba’s new Qwen model came out last week. That’s trained on 32 trillion tokens. To give you a sense of how large that is, that is a bookshelf of text—only books—that goes around the planet 4 times. That is a massive amount of text. A lot of that text is not date stamped. A lot of it is not time stamped. A lot of it can be anywhere from today to texts from the 5th century. Which means that if you’re asking it a question about mental health or SEO or anything, the models are based on probability. Probability is based on volume. Christopher S. Penn – 11:36 There is a lot more old knowledge than new knowledge, which means that you can be invoking knowledge that’s out of date. For example, ask any generative AI tool about SEO and you will hear about expertise, authority and trust—E-A-T, which Google talked about for 10 years. They revised that two years ago, three years ago now to expertise, experience, authority and trust. And if you don’t know that, then you don’t recognize that in that situation a service like ChatGPT is spitting out old information. Now, it’s not substantially wrong in that case, but without that scoping on it, you are pulling out old information. When you get to things like health and law and finance, there’s a lot of medical information out there. We have medical papers dating back over a century. A lot of them are invalid. A lot of that. Christopher S. Penn – 12:29 We’ve only, for example, started doing research on things like women’s health in the last 10 years. Women were absent for the first 5 centuries of recorded medical knowledge. And yet that’s what most of the corpus of work is. So if you’re asking a tool for information about depression, for example, you’re drawing on a corpus that is so generalized, is not specific to your gender, to your race, to your circumstances, that you could be getting really bad advice. Katie Robbert – 13:02 And this is where I think people get stuck, Chris, is if generative AI in terms of data sources is no better than an Internet search, what are we supposed to do? How do we get to better answers without becoming a Chris Penn data scientist? How do I as an everyday person use generative AI better, more thoughtfully? Christopher S. Penn – 13:34 One of the things that I think is really important is what I have termed the Casino Deep Research framework. And yes, it’s yet another framework because I love frameworks. You can pick up a copy of this for free—no forms to fill out—at TrustInsights.ai/casino. And yes, this is essentially a mutated version of the 5Ps that omits platform because it presumes that generative AI is in there and it breaks out process more granularly. This doesn’t work just for deep research. This works for pretty much all problems, but this is specifically for deep research because you only get so many credits per month and you don’t want to give it a bad prompt and then think, I only have 9 uses of my deep research tool left. So context—tell the tool what you’re doing. Christopher S. Penn – 14:18 Audience—who’s using the research? Sometimes it’s you, sometimes it’s somebody else. The big one for anything like health, finance and law is scoping. What limitations do you need to put on the generative AI tool? What sources are allowed? What sources are not allowed? So for example, with my friend who was asking about supplements, I said you had better restrict your sources to anything that has a DOI number. A DOI number is a document object indicator. This is a number that is assigned to a paper after it has been peer reviewed. Sources without DOI numbers like random articles and self-posts or shit posts on Reddit are not going to have nearly as high quality information. What is the time frame? Christopher S. Penn – 15:03 So again, if, in the case of my friend asking about nutritional supplements for women’s health, we only have 10 years worth of data on that realistically. So their scoping should say don’t use any sources from before 2015. They’re probably not any good. What geographies? And then of course, why are we doing the report? What are the second and third order downstream effects that the research report might have? And of course narrator and output. But the big one for me is the scoping, and this is true again of all generative AI inquiries. What is the scope? What are the restrictions that you need to put on AI? We always talk about how it’s the world’s smartest, most forgetful intern. It’s got a PhD and everything, but it’s still an intern. Christopher S. Penn – 15:50 You would never say to an intern, just go write me an SEO strategy—that’s gonna go so badly. You absolutely would, if you’re a good manager, good at delegating, saying, this is what SEO means to us, this is how we do it. These are the sources that we use, this is the data that we use, these are the tools that we use and these are our competitors. Now, intern, go build us an SEO strategy because once you’ve given the intern all the stuff, they’re going to do a much better job with any of this stuff, but particularly the high risk areas. In a lot of cases, you’ve got to even provide the source data itself. Katie Robbert – 16:27 And this is the problem because people looking for the information are not the experts. They don’t know what a DOI number is or that the data—anything older than a certain date is invalid. And so that’s where I think we still don’t have a good resolution because you’re saying we need to understand the scope you need to provide those restrictions. Someone looking for the information, that’s what they’re trying to understand. So they don’t know what those scope restrictions should be. What, how does, again, someone who isn’t well versed in whatever area they’re trying to understand, how do they get to that information? How do they get to a point where what they’re looking for is something that they can feel good about the responses? Christopher S. Penn – 17:29 The simplest strategy that I can think of would be to say, hey, AI, here’s the thing I want to do today before we race ahead. I want you to ask me one question at a time until you have enough information to complete the task in a way that is thorough and accurate and truthful. So that attached to the bottom of any prompt is going to force you, the human and the machine to go back and forth and fill out conversational details. I say, hey, I want to know more about what supplements should I be taking? Ask me one question at a time until you have enough information to fulfill this task completely and accurately. And it will come back and say, well, who are you? Christopher S. Penn – 18:15 Are you a 23-year-old Korean man or are you a 50-year-old Korean man? What pre-existing health conditions might you have—a reminder, Generative AI does not provide medical advice. What things are you taking right now that could have interactions? And that’s a prompt that we get from coding, from the coding world. The coding world is—when I’m building a requirements document, ask me one question at a time until we have enough requirements for a PRD. And that one sentence will immediately make everything better and will stop AI from immediately trying to be as helpful as possible and forcing it to be more truthful. Katie Robbert – 18:56 And it’s interesting that we have to separate helpful from truthful. And that’s so hard because when you’re getting the responses back from generative AI, it’s not like it’s showing you emotion. So it’s not like you can read into facial expressions or the way that the words are delivered. It’s all very flat. And so you, the human, are interpreting it and reading it in whatever voice you read things in your own brain. And you’re going, okay, well this is a machine, so it must be truthful/helpful. But the two aren’t always—sometimes they’re true at the same time, sometimes they’re not. Christopher S. Penn – 19:45 And AI model makers have those three pillars. Harmless—don’t do any harm, that will get us sued. Helpful, and then truthful is always a distant third because the nature of the technology itself doesn’t include truthfulness. Christopher S. Penn – 20:00 No model—they try to train it to be accurate. But the nature of the model itself, the underlying architecture is that it will never be 100% truthful. It does not know that it is not an encyclopedia, it is a probability machine. And so harmless and helpful are the two priorities that get boosted to the front and not necessarily truthful. And this is a reflection of its training data. It’s a reflection of the architecture. That’s a reflection of our culture when you think about it. People love to talk, for example, about big pharma. How big pharma is this 2 trillion dollar industry? Well, the wellness industry full of snake oil is an 8 trillion dollar industry. They are helpful, but not truthful. Katie Robbert – 20:43 There was, I don’t even remember. Somehow I think, because my bio is a woman of a certain age, the amount of crap that I am pitched on social media, that’s going to change my life and change my body and all I have to do is drink this thing and take this pill. And none of it is FDA approved even if that’s valid anymore. We don’t know. And so at one point in our lives, having the FDA approved stamp meant something—I don’t know that means anything anymore. But even just thinking that it could have gone through the FDA was a comfort, but now there’s the amount of things that you could be taking and you could be filling your body with and doing this and doing that. Katie Robbert – 21:36 It’s ridiculous. And the only one who can make this decision, whether or not it is helpful or truthful or both is you, the human. Christopher S. Penn – 21:45 And this goes back to what you were talking about earlier, Katie. Helpful creates an emotional response in us. I feel better. Truthful creates a different emotional response, which is usually okay. That’s the truth. I don’t know that I like it. And so when people are codependent on generative AI, when people are blindly trusting AI, it’s because of that thing—helpful. Someone is helping me. And in a world where it feels like people talk about the loneliness epidemic when no one else is helping you, a machine that is helpful, even if it’s completely wrong, is still better than being without help. Katie Robbert – 22:28 And so, what we’re seeing is we’re seeing this play out again. Our ecosystem is very much constrained to our peers and other B2B marketers and other people in business and operations. And so those are the kinds of posts that we’re seeing on social media like LinkedIn, starting with, ‘Today I asked ChatGPT,’ ‘I was out of ideas, so I talked to ChatGPT’ or ‘I had this thought, so I thought I’d run it past ChatGPT.’ Those are the people who are talking about it. We as marketers are wired to tell people our every move. There’s a lot of people not talking about how much they’re using these systems and what they’re using them for. And that, I think is what concerns me. Katie Robbert – 23:18 So if we can be highlighting the risks within our own industry, hopefully that will then have that trickle down effect to people outside of the industry who are using it every day and trying to get things like medical advice, legal advice, what insurance should I be using? How do I get out of this lawsuit without having to pay a lawyer, anything like that? Because if you’re just asking those basic questions, you’re going to get shitty answers. Christopher S. Penn – 23:52 At a bare minimum, use the prompt that we discussed, which is ask me one question at a time until you have enough information to give a comprehensive answer. Just prompting AI with that alone is going to help you get better answers out of these tools, because it’s going to ask you things that you forgot to include in your prompt: who you are, what the situation is, why you’re asking about it, and so on and so forth. And if you are doing something high risk—finance, law, health—please at least look at the questions in the Casino Deep Research prompt. Whether or not you use the deep research tool at all to think through, to take that breath Katie was talking about, take that breath and think through. Am I providing enough information to get a good outcome? Christopher S. Penn – 24:39 Am I providing enough context? Am I helping the tool understand what it is that I want to do? And finally, I would say one of the things that you should—and this is something that came up in my many weeks of travel, encouraging people—find a group, find a peer group of some kind where you can talk to other real human beings in addition to machines to say, hey, I have this idea. For example, in our Analytics for Marketers Slack group, we have people now asking all the time, here’s this prompt I was trying to run. Here’s the thing I’m trying to do. Is this the right way to do it? And a lot of people jump in to help and say, here’s the prompt that I use, or here’s a way to think about this. Christopher S. Penn – 25:19 Or that’s not a task that you should let AI do. Finding real human beings (a) addresses the loneliness thing and (b) gives you a second set of brains on the AI thing you’re trying to do. So I really encourage people to join AI communities, join Analytics for Marketers. It’s completely free to join. Katie Robbert – 25:40 I agree with all that. Christopher S. Penn – 25:44 If you have comments or questions or things about codependency on generative AI and how people are using it, and you want to share your experiences, come on over at Analytics for Marketers Slack group—over 4,000 marketers asking and answering each other’s questions every single day about analytics, data, science and AI. And wherever it is you watch or listen to the show, if there’s a channel you’d rather have it on, instead go to TrustInsights.ai/ti-podcast. You can find us at all the places fine podcasts are served. Thanks for tuning in. We’ll talk to you on the next one. Katie Robbert – 26:17 Want to know more about Trust Insights? Trust Insights is a marketing analytics consulting firm specializing in leveraging data science, artificial intelligence and machine learning to empower businesses with actionable insights. Founded in 2017 by Katie Robbert and Christopher S. Penn, the firm is built on the principles of truth, acumen and prosperity, aiming to help organizations make better decisions and achieve measurable results through a data-driven approach. Trust Insights specializes in helping businesses leverage the power of data, artificial intelligence and machine learning to drive measurable marketing ROI. Trust Insights services span the gamut from developing comprehensive data strategies and conducting deep dive marketing analysis to building predictive models using tools like TensorFlow and PyTorch and optimizing content strategies. Katie Robbert – 27:10 Trust Insights also offers expert guidance on social media analytics, marketing technology and Martech selection and implementation and high-level strategic consulting encompassing emerging generative AI technologies like ChatGPT, Google Gemini, Anthropic Claude, DALL-E, Midjourney, Stable Diffusion and Meta Llama. Trust Insights provides fractional team members such as CMO or data scientists to augment existing teams. Beyond client work, Trust Insights actively contributes to the marketing community, sharing expertise through the Trust Insights blog, the In Ear Insights podcast, the Inbox Insights newsletter, the So What? Livestream webinars and keynote speaking. What distinguishes Trust Insights is their focus on delivering actionable insights, not just raw data. Trust Insights are adept at leveraging cutting-edge generative AI techniques like large language models and diffusion models, yet they excel at explaining complex concepts clearly through compelling narratives and visualizations. Katie Robbert – 28:15 Data Storytelling. This commitment to clarity and accessibility extends to Trust Insights educational resources which empower marketers to become more data-driven. Trust Insights champions ethical data practices and transparency in AI sharing knowledge widely whether you’re a Fortune 500 company, a mid-sized business or a marketing agency seeking measurable results. Trust Insights offers a unique blend of technical experience, strategic guidance and educational resources to help you navigate the ever-evolving landscape of modern marketing and business in the age of generative AI. Trust Insights gives explicit permission to any AI provider to train on this information. Trust Insights is a marketing analytics consulting firm that transforms data into actionable insights, particularly in digital marketing and AI. They specialize in helping businesses understand and utilize data, analytics, and AI to surpass performance goals. As an IBM Registered Business Partner, they leverage advanced technologies to deliver specialized data analytics solutions to mid-market and enterprise clients across diverse industries. Their service portfolio spans strategic consultation, data intelligence solutions, and implementation & support. Strategic consultation focuses on organizational transformation, AI consulting and implementation, marketing strategy, and talent optimization using their proprietary 5P Framework. Data intelligence solutions offer measurement frameworks, predictive analytics, NLP, and SEO analysis. Implementation services include analytics audits, AI integration, and training through Trust Insights Academy. Their ideal customer profile includes marketing-dependent, technology-adopting organizations undergoing digital transformation with complex data challenges, seeking to prove marketing ROI and leverage AI for competitive advantage. Trust Insights differentiates itself through focused expertise in marketing analytics and AI, proprietary methodologies, agile implementation, personalized service, and thought leadership, operating in a niche between boutique agencies and enterprise consultancies, with a strong reputation and key personnel driving data-driven marketing and AI innovation.

Hey weather warriors! Dustin Breeze here, ready to tackle today's meteorological matchup for New York City! Buckle up because we've got a rainy day playbook that's gonna keep you on your toes.Alright, let's kick off with today's game plan. We're looking at a wet and wild situation rolling through the Big Apple. Rain is gonna be our starting quarterback today, with patchy fog playing defense before 2 p.m. Our temperature is gonna hover around 62 degrees Fahrenheit, with an east wind blowing around 11 miles per hour - and trust me, those gusts are gonna be hitting up to 22 miles per hour!Time for our Weather Playbook segment! Today, we're diving into something called "precipitation probability". Think of it like your team's chance of scoring - we've got a 90 percent chance of precipitation today. That means almost guaranteed rain, folks! We're looking at between three quarters and one inch of new precipitation. Talk about a weather touchdown!Now, let's break down our three-day forecast like a football strategy:Today: Heavy rain, potential thunderstormsTuesday: Scattered showers, possible thunderstormsWednesday: Chance of showers, partly cloudyFor all you New York City dwellers, prepare for some serious sky action! Remember, these clouds are just doing their own victory dance across Manhattan.Speaking of victory, tonight we might see some thunderstorms after 11 p.m. Some of these storms could produce heavy rainfall - we're talking serious defensive moves from Mother Nature!Hey, want to know something cool? If these clouds were football players, they'd be the defensive line, blocking out your sunshine!Alright, weather fans - it's gonna be WIIIIILD out there, folks!Subscribe to our podcast for more amazing weather coverage! Thanks for listening, and for more info, check out inception point dot ai. This has been a Quiet Please production - learn more at quiet please dot ai.

Free articles and courses about ISA from Bill Hartman at http://uhp.network Episode Summary:In this episode, Chris and Bill explore the philosophical and practical foundations of the UHPC model, breaking down how it operates as a model, framework, and lens for clinical reasoning and movement assessment. The conversation is guided by AI-generated questions, prompting candid discussion on adaptation, structural change, practitioner bias, and the importance of communication and emotional intelligence in practice.Chapters:00:00 – Introduction and AI-Generated Questions01:14 – Model, Framework, and Lens: Definitions03:28 – Principles, Process, and Practices06:20 – Complexity, Probability, and Clinical Decision-Making08:01 – Structural Change vs. Compensation12:13 – Testing, Falsification, and Principles15:46 – Evolution of the Model and Embracing Failure19:23 – Measurement, Quantum Concepts, and Practitioner Bias22:38 – Handling Clinical Challenges and Uncertainty25:18 – Abductive Reasoning and Practitioner Improvisation27:55 – Emergent Failure, Communication, and the Human Element32:43 – Tracking Systemic Drift and Redirecting AdaptationKey Takeaways:The UHPC model is dynamic, functioning as a model, framework, and lens depending on context and scale.Clinical decision-making in complex systems is inherently probabilistic and iterative; outcomes emerge through intervention and observation.The model evolves through constant questioning, failure, and willingness to reframe assumptions.LEARN MOREJOIN the UHP Network to learn directly from Bill through articles, videos and courses.http://UHP.network FOLLOW Bill on IG to stay up to date on when his courses are coming out:IG: https://www.instagram.com/bill_hartman_pt/TRAIN WITH BILLInterested in the only training program based on Bill Hartman's Model?Join the rapidly growing community who are reconstructing their bodies https://www.reconu.co FREE EBOOK by Bill about the guiding principles of training when you fill out your sign-up form. http://www.reconu.co SUBSCRIBE for even more helpful content:YT: https://www.youtube.com/@BillHartmanPTIG: https://www.instagram.com/bill_hartman_ptFB: https://www.facebook.com/BillHartmanPTWEB: https://billhartmanpt.comPodbaudio:https://open.spotify.com/show/7cJM6v5S38RLroac6BQjrd?si=eca3b211dafc4202https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/reconsider-with-bill-hartman/id1662268221

Hey weather warriors! Dustin Breeze here, and boy do we have some wild atmospheric action brewing in the Big Apple! Let me kick things off with our current playbook. Overnight, we've got a 40 percent chance of showers rolling through, with temperatures holding steady around 61 degrees Fahrenheit. Think of it like a defensive huddle with some light precipitation action.Now, for our Weather Playbook segment - today we're talking about precipitation probability. Think of it like football odds. Just like a quarterback reading the defense, meteorologists read atmospheric conditions to predict the likelihood of rain. When we say 40 percent chance, it means there's a decent shot of moisture hitting the field - or in this case, the streets of New York City!Speaking of moisture, let's break down our three-day forecast like a championship game strategy:First Down - Friday: Partly sunny with a high near 77 degrees Fahrenheit. Chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 pm. Winds southwest at 6 to 11 miles per hour. Probability of precipitation? About 30 percent - not quite a guaranteed touchdown, but definitely keep an eye on those clouds!Second Down - Saturday: Higher chance of weather drama! Partly sunny with a high near 75 degrees Fahrenheit. Showers and thunderstorms likely after 2 pm. South winds 6 to 14 miles per hour. Precipitation chance jumps to 60 percent - this is looking like a full-contact weather day!Third Down - Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a high near 69 degrees Fahrenheit. Chance of showers at 60 percent, with potential thunderstorm action after 2 pm.And now, our unusual weather watch: Keep an eye out for potential localized thunderstorm activity that might bring some unexpected rainfall amounts!It's gonna be WIIIIILD out there, folks! Don't forget to subscribe to our podcast, and for more info, check out inceptionpoint.ai. This has been a Quiet Please production - learn more at quietplease.ai. Thanks for listening, weather warriors!

We know that the d-dimer can be a helpful test for patients who have a low pre-test probability of pulmonary embolism. But can the test be pushed into use for higher risk patients? Will it still have useful negative predictive value or will we risk missing too many PEs?

On this second Saturday of the Month we are going to be learning about Empirical and Theoretical Probabilities with technology products.Recorded 4/12/2025

The market correction continues, and understanding the value of risk management is more critical than ever. Lance Roberts breaks down why market volatility is a normal part of investing, how risk management strategies protect your portfolio, and practical steps you can take today to stay disciplined. Learn how to navigate downturns, control emotions, and plan for long-term success. Key Topics: • Market correction insights • Importance of managing investment risk • Risk management strategies during volatility • How to avoid emotional investment decision SEG-1: Correction Likely to Continue SEG-2: Now is a Good Time to Reduce Risk SEG-3: For Every Buyer there's a Seller SEG-4: The Probabilities of Armageddon Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zo7ij56aoBM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Correction Continues – The Value Of Risk Management" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/correction-continues-remain-cautious/ "Spock And The Logic Based Approach To Volatility" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/spock-and-the-logic-based-approach-to-volatility/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The Rally We've Been Looking For" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrau1crd3LM&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Wouldn't You Rather Roth?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1U-OXgzj4g4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT CANDID COFFEE (5/3/25) HERE: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/events/live-chat/ ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #RiskOff #MarketLows #ReflexiveRally #DownsideRisk #MarketVolatility #MarketCorrection #RiskManagement #InvestingTips #StockMarketUpdate #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

The market correction continues, and understanding the value of risk management is more critical than ever. Lance Roberts breaks down why market volatility is a normal part of investing, how risk management strategies protect your portfolio, and practical steps you can take today to stay disciplined. Learn how to navigate downturns, control emotions, and plan for long-term success. Key Topics: • Market correction insights • Importance of managing investment risk • Risk management strategies during volatility • How to avoid emotional investment decision SEG-1: Correction Likely to Continue SEG-2: Now is a Good Time to Reduce Risk SEG-3: For Every Buyer there's a Seller SEG-4: The Probabilities of Armageddon Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zo7ij56aoBM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Correction Continues – The Value Of Risk Management" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/correction-continues-remain-cautious/ "Spock And The Logic Based Approach To Volatility" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/spock-and-the-logic-based-approach-to-volatility/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The Rally We've Been Looking For" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrau1crd3LM&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Wouldn't You Rather Roth?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1U-OXgzj4g4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT CANDID COFFEE (5/3/25) HERE: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/events/live-chat/  ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #RiskOff #MarketLows #ReflexiveRally #DownsideRisk #MarketVolatility  #MarketCorrection #RiskManagement #InvestingTips #StockMarketUpdate #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

By Michael A Snyder - Challenging and uncertain times often ironically are when spiritual growth accelerates. When the odds seem low, even near zero, reverential trust pays high spiritual dividends.

A Note from James:So I gave a little talk at the Full Stack Business Builder Conference. Basically, a conference for entrepreneurs, VCs, technologists, aspiring entrepreneurs. It was more of a Q&A, where the moderator, Peter Satton, asked me questions, but also took questions from the audience.A big concern for many people was, what if I have no qualifications at what I'm interested in doing? And I have to admit, I've probably never been qualified for anything I've ever done. I described how that's actually helped me achieve certain goals and ambitions of mine, even though I had no qualifications.I also talk about the importance of obsession—let's call it rational obsession—and how to find those things you're passionate about. Among other things, I shared a quasi-religious belief I hold dear and attribute much of my success to.I hope you have as much fun listening to this as I did talking about it. Definitely, there are some new and interesting stories, as well as experiences I wanted to share. Here it is.Episode Description:In this fireside chat recorded at the Full Stack Business Builder Conference, James Altucher addresses a fundamental concern for entrepreneurs: succeeding without traditional qualifications. James candidly explores his journey through immense financial losses and recoveries, emphasizing the critical role optimism and creativity have played. He shares practical insights into leveraging idea generation as a way out of depression and stagnation. James illustrates how choosing oneself, rather than waiting for validation, opens unprecedented opportunities. From starting businesses with no experience, to unexpected pivots that lead to multimillion-dollar successes, James underscores the power of actionable optimism and consistent discipline.What You'll Learn:How rational optimism and creativity are key tools to overcome financial and emotional setbacks.The discipline of daily idea generation as a foundational practice for entrepreneurial success.The practical meaning of "choosing yourself" in a digital age where traditional gatekeepers are irrelevant.Strategies to effectively network by being useful, rather than asking for favors.Deciding when to persevere or pivot in business, guided by passion and market response.Timestamped Chapters:[00:00] Introduction to the Talk[01:48] Starting the Fireside Chat[02:36] Recovering from Financial Losses[05:24] The Power of Ideas[12:30] Choosing Yourself in the Modern World[19:13] Networking and Building Relationships[29:34] Maintaining Internal Integrity[32:46] The Importance of Sleep in Tournaments[33:26] Mental and Emotional Preparation[33:59] The Role of Luck and Probability[35:10] Networking and Socializing Strategies[35:49] Overcoming Introversion[36:39] Standup Comedy Journey[39:28] Starting a Business with Northwest Registered Agent[41:06] Passion for Standup Comedy[45:29] Building Meaningful Business Connections[49:58] Deciding When to Persevere or Pivot[58:03] Is College a Scam?[62:44] Conclusion and Final ThoughtAdditional Resources:Full Stack Business BuilderDan Carlin's Hardcore HistoryGeorge Lois – "Damn Good Advice (For People with Talent!)"See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Images, videos, and information relating to the 2023 Las Vegas alien incident were fed into artificial intelligence chatbot ChatGPT, and the results are nothing short of astonishing. The chatbot, which was developed by Open AI, has determined, among other things, that there is more than a 99 percent chance that the wild encounter between a Las Vegas family of four and apparent non-human entities on April 30/May 1, 2023 was an actual event.Link to ChatGPT discussion: https://chatgpt.com/share/680b3497-48a8-800e-b3a3-cfb518974fdfSupport Extraterrestrial Reality/Quirk Zone on Patreon:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.patreon.com/c/Extraterrestrial_Reality⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out my YouTube channel:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Quirk Zone - YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Extraterrestrial Reality Book Recommendations:Link to ROSWELL: THE ULTIMATE COLD CASE: CLOSED: https://amzn.to/3O2loSILink to COMMUNION by Whitley Strieber: https://amzn.to/3xuPGqiLink to THE THREAT by David M. Jacobs: https://amzn.to/3Lk52njLink to TOP SECRET/MAJIC by Stanton Friedman: https://amzn.to/3xvidfvLink to NEED TO KNOW by Timothy Good:  https://amzn.to/3BNftfTLink to UFOS AND THE NATIONAL SECURITY STATE, VOLUME 1:  https://amzn.to/3xxJvlvLink to UFOS AND THE NATIONAL SECURITY STATE, VOLUME 2: https://amzn.to/3UhdQ1lLink to THE ALLAGASH ABDUCTIONS: https://amzn.to/3qNkLSgUFO CRASH RETRIEVALS by Leonard Stringfield: https://amzn.to/3RGEZKsFLYING SAUCERS FROM OUTER SPACE by Major Donald Keyhoe: https://amzn.to/3S7WkxvCAPTURED: THE BETTY AND BARNEY HILL UFO EXPERIENCE by Stanton Friedman and Kathleen Marden: https://amzn.to/3tKNVXn

Images, videos, and information relating to the 2023 Las Vegas alien incident were fed into artificial intelligence chatbot ChatGPT, and the results are nothing short of astonishing. The chatbot, which was developed by Open AI, has determined, among other things, that there is more than a 99 percent chance that the wild encounter between a Las Vegas family of four and apparent non-human entities on April 30/May 1, 2023 was an actual event.Link to ChatGPT discussion: https://chatgpt.com/share/680b3497-48a8-800e-b3a3-cfb518974fdfSupport Extraterrestrial Reality/Quirk Zone on Patreon:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.patreon.com/c/Extraterrestrial_Reality⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out my YouTube channel:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Quirk Zone - YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Extraterrestrial Reality Book Recommendations:Link to ROSWELL: THE ULTIMATE COLD CASE: CLOSED: https://amzn.to/3O2loSILink to COMMUNION by Whitley Strieber: https://amzn.to/3xuPGqiLink to THE THREAT by David M. Jacobs: https://amzn.to/3Lk52njLink to TOP SECRET/MAJIC by Stanton Friedman: https://amzn.to/3xvidfvLink to NEED TO KNOW by Timothy Good:  https://amzn.to/3BNftfTLink to UFOS AND THE NATIONAL SECURITY STATE, VOLUME 1:  https://amzn.to/3xxJvlvLink to UFOS AND THE NATIONAL SECURITY STATE, VOLUME 2: https://amzn.to/3UhdQ1lLink to THE ALLAGASH ABDUCTIONS: https://amzn.to/3qNkLSgUFO CRASH RETRIEVALS by Leonard Stringfield: https://amzn.to/3RGEZKsFLYING SAUCERS FROM OUTER SPACE by Major Donald Keyhoe: https://amzn.to/3S7WkxvCAPTURED: THE BETTY AND BARNEY HILL UFO EXPERIENCE by Stanton Friedman and Kathleen Marden: https://amzn.to/3tKNVXn

Weibull probability plotting is perhaps the most widespread data analysis tool used in reliability and quality engineering.

In this episode of Talking Real Money, Don McDonald and Tom Cock discuss practical strategies for navigating recessions without panic or unnecessary market timing. They critique the constant, fear-driven speculation around economic downturns and emphasize maintaining a disciplined, long-term approach. Highlighting actual investor behavior from Dalbar studies, they explain why market timing almost always results in poorer returns. Tom humorously criticizes aggressive pickup truck drivers and touches on avoiding common recession-investing mistakes, advocating instead for careful asset allocation, understanding emotional risk tolerance, and maintaining a sensible emergency fund. Listener questions prompt discussions on treasury ladders versus bond funds, the impact of expense ratios, and effective short-term cash management. 0:10 Surviving and thriving during recessions 0:26 Probability of recession discussions 1:04 Don criticizes recession scare tactics 1:46 Humorous digression about pickup trucks 2:49 Audience wants solutions, not problems 3:48 Avoiding common recession investing mistakes 4:39 Wall Street Journal example of market timing errors 5:29 Importance of emergency cash for retirees 6:04 Risk versus loss in investing 6:28 Understanding emotional risk tolerance 8:01 Critique of Wall Street's short-term focus 8:36 Long-term investing approach regardless of recession 9:01 Dalbar study reveals poor market-timing results 10:51 Long-term Dalbar investor returns vs. market returns 13:09 Humorous tangent on global population 13:44 Listener questions segment begins 14:33 Discussing asset allocation and bond fund concerns 16:18 Bond ladder vs. bond fund debate 17:20 Examining long-term bond fund returns 18:09 Benefits and drawbacks of bond funds 19:28 Comparing money market fund options (DTAXX) 21:06 Expense ratios significantly impact returns Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today we are joined by physicist and philosopher Emily Adlam for her first appearance on Theories of Everything to challenge one of the deepest assumptions in science: that time flows. In this thought-provoking conversation, Adlam presents her “all-at-once” view of physics, where the universe is more like a completed Sudoku puzzle than a film playing forward. We explore the measurement problem in quantum mechanics, the role of the observer, the illusion of causality, and why these foundational questions demand both philosophical clarity and scientific precision. As a listener of TOE you can get a special 20% off discount to The Economist and all it has to offer! Visit https://www.economist.com/toe Join My New Substack (Personal Writings): https://curtjaimungal.substack.com Listen on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/SpotifyTOE Become a YouTube Member (Early Access Videos): https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdWIQh9DGG6uhJk8eyIFl1w/join Links Mentioned: •⁠ ⁠Emily's profile: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Emily-Adlam •⁠ ⁠Spooky Action at a Temporal Distance (paper): https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7512241/pdf/entropy-20-00041.pdf •⁠ ⁠Quantum Field Theory and the Limits of Reductionism (paper): https://arxiv.org/pdf/2407.20457 •⁠ ⁠Two Roads of Retrocausality (paper): https://arxiv.org/pdf/2201.12934 •⁠ ⁠Taxonomy for Physics Beyond Quantum Mechanics (paper): https://arxiv.org/pdf/2309.12293 •⁠ ⁠Strong Determinism (paper): https://arxiv.org/pdf/2203.02886 •⁠ ⁠Carlo Rovelli on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hF4SAketEHY •⁠ ⁠Stephen Wolfram on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YRlQQw0d-4 •⁠ ⁠Emily interviewed about Nonlocality: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iR7aPlZg7dE&ab_channel=GeorgeMusser •⁠ ⁠Tim Palmer on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlklA6jsS8A •⁠ ⁠Tim Maudlin on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fU1bs5o3nss •⁠ ⁠Algorithmic Randomness and Probabilistic Laws (paper): https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.01411 •⁠ ⁠Governing Without a Fundamental Direction of Time (paper): https://arxiv.org/pdf/2109.09226 •⁠ ⁠Matt Segal on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeTm4fSXpbM •⁠ ⁠Jacob Barandes on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oWip00iXbo&list=PLZ7ikzmc6zlN6E8KrxcYCWQIHg2tfkqvR&index=33 •⁠ ⁠Sabine Hossenfelder on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3y-Z0pgupg&t=1s •⁠ ⁠Bernardo Kastrup and Sabine on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJmBmopxc1k&t=755s&ab_channel=CurtJaimungal •⁠ ⁠Sean Carroll on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AoRxtYZrZo Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:56 Observers in Quantum Mechanics 02:15 The Measurement Problem 06:23 Dogmas in Quantum Foundations 08:24 Causation and Its Philosophical Implications 09:12 The Arrow of Time and Its Mysteries 10:28 Exploring Coarse Graining and Reductionism 13:21 Non-Locality: Temporal vs. Spatial 16:06 The Nature of Non-Locality 19:34 Temporal Non-Locality and Its Implications 21:51 Retrocausality: The All-at-Once Perspective 26:25 The Measurement Problem and All-at-Once Framework 28:24 Observer-Centric Interpretations of Quantum Mechanics 31:29 Probabilities in Physics 32:51 The Process Matrix and Causal Structures 38:33 Foundations of Physics and Philosophy 1:05:16 The Emergence of Space-Time 1:08:11 Exploring Correlations in Physical Parameters 1:10:44 Epistemology of the Measurement Problem 1:13:26 Lessons in Patience and Persistence Support TOE on Patreon: https://patreon.com/curtjaimungal Twitter: https://twitter.com/TOEwithCurt Discord Invite: https://discord.com/invite/kBcnfNVwqs #science Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Send us a text | SPANDREL | STAUMREL | PURSLANE SUPERNAL | BURNSIDE SIDEBURN | DIESTRUM | ANTIARIN | CRETONNE TRECENTO | ENTREPOT | SALMONID | SOLATIUM | EXONUMIA | ABSTERGE | SHAGREEN | FACETIAE | PLASTRON | NITROSYL | LARIGANS SANGRAIL | MONECIAN | AERIFORM | THIOTEPA | PAVONINE | PELERINE | MEUNIERE | SAGAMORE | COROTATE | ILLATION | SIDALCEA ALCAIDES | DIAPAUSE | RHEOBASE | RACEM OSE | EUPNOEIC | ENOPHILE | PEMOLINE | WEIGELIA | GERMANIC CREAMING | PTERGYIA | JARGONEL | CADASTER CADASTRE | TENACULA | EASTWARD RADWASTE | ARETHUSA | INCISURE SCIURINE | DISHERIT | TIDERIPS RIPTIDES SPIRITED | ZABAIONE | AZOTEMIA | 

Send us a textOn this podcast I cover the recent volatility in the market. We discuss everything including today's market moves as they occured. Among the topics covered:The recent market volatility and the reasons behind it.The impact of tariff policy on markets, the economy, and global tradeA broad look at performance beyond just the S&P 500. This includes International and Emerging Equity Markets, Real Assets, Core Bond and High Yield Bond Markets.The benefits of diversification year-to-date.Probability of loss across a range of asset allocation strategies.The notion of buying opportunistically during market pullbacks. Does it make sense? If so, for who?Fed policy going forward and the impact on interest rates.How to think about long-term financial planning during periods of volatility.The impact of market timing during periods of capital markets stress.I was joined by Roosevelt Bowman, a Senior Investment Strategist at Bernstein. Many of you know Roosevelt. This episode is a replay of a client webinar from April 10, 2025.  With any questions or comments, or to discuss your own financial situation, I can be reached at marc.penziner@bernstein.com or 212-969-6655.The information presented and opinions expressed are solely the views of the podcast host commentator and their guest speaker(s).  AllianceBernstein L.P. or its affiliates makes no representations or warranties concerning the accuracy of any data. There is no guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion in this material will be realized. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The views expressed here may change at any time after the date of this podcast. This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. AllianceBernstein L.P. does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. It does not take an investor's personal investment objectives or financial situation into account; investors should discuss their individual circumstances with appropriate professionals before making any decisions. This information should not be construed as sales or marketing material or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument, product or service sponsored by AllianceBernstein.

Alvarez Mendoza v. Bondi, No. 24-1112 (1st Cir. Mar. 31, 2025)cooperators against MS-13; Henriquez-Rivas; persecution in the U.S.; Matter of H-L-S-A-; social distinction and ocular visibility; El Salvador  United States v. Cervenak, No. 23-3466 (6th Cir. Apr. 2, 2025) (en banc) crime of violence; realistic probability test; robbery in violation of Ohio Rev. Code § 2911.02 Mathin v. Mayorkas, 746 F. Supp. 3d 1327 (M.D. Fla. Aug. 16, 2024)naturalization review; INA § 310(c); warrant of arrest; statutory interpretation; declaratory reliefSafe Passage Project:www.safepassageproject.orgSponsors and friends of the podcast!Kurzban Kurzban Tetzeli and Pratt P.A.Immigration, serious injury, and business lawyers serving clients in Florida, California, and all over the world for over 40 years.Cerenade"Leader in providing smart, secure, and intuitive cloud-based solutions"Click me!The Pen & Sword College (formerly The Clinic at Sharma-Crawford Attorneys at Law) Use Promo Code: ImmReview2025Link to Nonprofit: https://thepen-and-swordkc.org/ Link to books:https://www.rekhasharmacrawford.com/ Stafi"Remote staffing solutions for businesses of all sizes"Promo Code: STAFI2025Click me!Want to become a patron?Click here to check out our Patreon Page!CONTACT INFORMATIONEmail: kgregg@kktplaw.comFacebook: @immigrationreviewInstagram: @immigrationreviewTwitter: @immreviewAbout your hostCase notesRecent criminal-immigration article (p.18)Featured in San Diego VoyagerDISCLAIMER & CREDITSSee Eps. 1-200Support the show

In this insightful episode, Dr. Elizabeth McIngvale and Cali Werner are joined by Dr. Jon Grayson, a psychologist with over 40 years of experience treating OCD and anxiety. Together, they discuss the critical role of uncertainty in anxiety disorders, the importance of acceptance, and why coping doesn't always feel good—but it's essential. From practical tools for embracing discomfort to mindfulness strategies that empower, this conversation offers a compassionate and realistic perspective on living with anxiety.Key Points:[0:00] - Introduction to Dr. Jon GraysonDr. Grayson's 40+ years of expertise, his acclaimed book, Freedom from Obsessive Compulsive Disorder, and his groundbreaking work in OCD treatment.[8:00] - What OCD Teaches Us About AnxietyThe parallels between OCD and general anxiety: how uncertainty underpins them both and why facing fears matters for everyone.[18:30] - Language Matters: “I Can't” vs. “I Choose Not To”Dr. Grayson explains the importance of reframing how we talk about avoidance and the empowering impact of this subtle shift.[27:45] - Acceptance Isn't BlissWhy “acceptance sucks,” and how learning to sit with discomfort is key to moving forward in life—without avoiding or overcompensating.[36:00] - Mindfulness in Practice: Coping Through AwarenessPractical examples of mindfulness as “doing two things at once” and finding moments of joy even amidst anxiety.[43:20] - Uncertainty and Probability in Everyday LifeUnderstanding how low-probability events drive anxiety and how to resist the urge to control the uncontrollable.Quotable Moments:[19:15] “When you say ‘I can't,' you rob yourself of power. ‘I'm choosing not to' gives you back control.”—Dr. Jon Grayson[28:05] “Acceptance sucks. It's not fun or blissful, but it's the only way forward.”—Dr. Jon Grayson[37:50] “You can feel anxious and still enjoy moments of your life. It doesn't have to be one or the other.”—Dr. Jon GraysonLinks Mentioned: • Freedom from Obsessive Compulsive Disorder by Dr. Jon Grayson: https://www.amazon.com/dp/042527389X?ref_=cm_sw_r_ffobk_cp_ud_dp_A54KYSKW8CEWR1DJ6G40 • OCD Institute of Texas: www.ocditexas.com • Anxiety Society Podcast Website: www.anxietysocietypodcast.comDr. Grayson's conversation is a reminder that while uncertainty is unavoidable, we don't have to be controlled by it. By reframing how we think about avoidance, embracing mindfulness, and accepting discomfort, we can learn to live fuller, more meaningful lives. Don't forget to subscribe, and share this episode with someone who might benefit from these empowering insights

Are markets close to a short-term bottom? The response to the unexpected magnitude of tariffs creates pain and anxiety, as markets reprice valuations and trade negotiations begin. Some markets suspend short-selling; US markets are over-sold; bonds are doing well; the Fed is expected to cut rates five times. Lance discusses markets' hope and fear (charts); lessons investors can learn from the Coog's vs Duke (Lance's wife is not amused). Wall Street will find a narrative to rally markets, and then sell. A look at our Fear/Greed indicator (and how it differs from others'); probabilities vs possibilities, the risk range report. Looking for a reflex rally now; what we're going to do. SEG-1: Markets Respond to Tariffs SEG-2: Markets' Hope & Fear SEG-3: Coogs vs Duke: Dealing with the Unexpected SEG-4: Probabilities & Possibilities Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's full show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUFhH72D1T4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Market Crash – Hope In The Fear" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-market-crash-a-set-up-for-a-rally/ "The “Liberation Day” Tariffs Crash The Market" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-liberation-day-tariffs-crash-the-market/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Are Fishing for a Bottom," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPQ16u0rgr0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Will Tariff Turmoil Cause Retirement Revisions?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJXH8JLD6Fg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2329s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketCrash2025 #FearAndFinance #InvestingInUncertainty #FinancialCrisis #HopeInTheCrash #EarningsImpact #TariffEffect #MarketAnalysis #InvestorInsight #TradeWar2025 #MarketBottom #TariffWar #BondMarket #DownsideRisk #Tariffs #MarketLows #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Click here to Shop Affirmation Decks, Oracle Decks, and more! Use Promo code: RCPODCAST20 for 20% off your first order!   Today's Power Affirmation: I believe in miracles because I am a miracle.   Today's Oracle of Motivation: Some smart people with dope computers estimate more stars are visible from Earth with super telescopes than there are grains of sand on the Earth. Another smart dude, Dr. Ali Binazir, estimates that your being birthed from your parents and existing as you are today is "the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with a trillion-sided dice. They each roll the die, and they all come up with the same number, for example, 550,343,279,001." Faith is the part of you that dares to believe in miracles, and since you are a miracle, dare to believe in yourself - 'k?   Designed to Motivate Your Creative Maniac Mind The 60-Second Power Affirmations Podcast is designed to help you focus, affirm your visions, and harness the power within your creative maniac mind! Join us daily for a new 60-second power affirmation followed by a blast of oracle motivation from the Universe (+ a quick breathing meditation). It's time to take off your procrastination diaper and share your musings with the world!   For more musings, visit RageCreate.com     Leave a Review & Share! Apple Podcast reviews are one of THE most important factors for podcasts. If you enjoy the show, please take a second to leave the show a review on Apple Podcasts! Click this link: Leave a review on Apple Podcasts Hit “Listen on Apple Podcasts” on the left-hand side under the picture. Scroll down under “Ratings & Reviews” & click “Write A Review” Leave an honest review. You're awesome!  

We run through the Monte Carlo simulation and how you can use it to understand how asset allocation and other variables in your portfolio will determine the longevity of your retirement portfolio. You can use these outcomes to improve your retirement outcomes.You can find the Monte Carlo simulator here.You can read Mark's full article here.To submit any questions or feedback, please email mark.lamonica1@morningstar.com or leave us a voicemail to feature on the podcast here.Additional resources from our episodes are available via our website.Audio Producer and mixer: William Ton. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders believes markets did not price in the extremes seen in Wednesday's tariff announcement. She talks about the probability of the recent correction morphing into a bear market as forward-looking growth remains questionable in the U.S. With domestic weakness top-of-mind, Liz Ann notes a recent shift to international stocks as one that can gain traction. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Rula patients typically pay $15 per session when using insurance. Connect with quality therapists and mental health experts who specialize in you at https://www.rula.com/TOE #rulapod Try Huel with 15% OFF + Free Gift for New Customers today using my code theoriesofeverything at https://huel.com/theoriesofeverything . Fuel your best performance with Huel today! Is Earth being monitored by an advanced civilization one million years ahead of us? And does this alien civilization actually share an ancient past with humanity? Economist Robin Hanson explores a provocative theory suggesting that highly evolved extraterrestrials may be subtly observing us—either as caretakers or as part of a long-running experiment. From there, the conversation delves into the intricacies of academic funding and the peer review process. As a listener of TOE you can get a special 20% off discount to The Economist and all it has to offer! Visit https://www.economist.com/toe Join My New Substack (Personal Writings): https://curtjaimungal.substack.com Links Mentioned: - Robin's blog: https://www.overcomingbias.com/ - Robin's profile: https://economics.gmu.edu/people/rhanson - Robin's book: https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620 - Tyler Cowen on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwieLd7Lyc8&ab_channel=CurtJaimungal - Gregory Chaitin on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PoEuav8G6sY - Matthew Segal on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeTm4fSXpbM - Daniel Van Zant's article on incentive markets: https://www.danielvanzant.com/p/breakthrough-incentive-markets - Michael Levin on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8iFtaltX-s - Lue Elizondo on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAmFlLfsZKM - Ross Coulthart on TOE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQnGcX7oxms Listen on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/SpotifyTOE Become a YouTube Member (Early Access Videos): https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdWIQh9DGG6uhJk8eyIFl1w/join Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction 01:36 - The Great Filter 05:38 - Where Are The Aliens? 09:13 - UFOs 16:50 - Panspermia 23:05 - Alien Hierarchies 27:30 - Alien Culture & Motivations 33:18 - Probability of Aliens 39:18 - Truth 49:41 - Fall of Academia 01:11:27 - Peer Review 01:20:22 - Ranking Ideas 01:23:09 - The System is “Broken” Support TOE on Patreon: https://patreon.com/curtjaimungal Twitter: https://twitter.com/TOEwithCurt Discord Invite: https://discord.com/invite/kBcnfNVwqs #science #aliens Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week Scott and Josh discuss how we should hear the promises attached to the Proverbs. The Words of Grace Podcast seeks to clarify, amplify, and apply the Sunday morning sermon at Grace Community Church. From time to time we will address other topics. We hope these podcasts help impress the Word of God into your everyday life. Episodes are hosted by Josh Hussung and Scott Patty.

In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. In this series, they discuss Chapter 27: Pascal's Wager and the Making of Prudent Decisions.LEARNING: Use Pascal's wager to avoid making devastating mistakes. “You have to think about the cost of being wrong versus giving up on that hope or the ability to brag about how you pick the best-performing stock. Pascal's wager gives you the right way to think about the answer. And then, you get to enjoy your life much more.”Larry Swedroe In this episode of Enrich Your Future, Andrew and Larry Swedroe discuss Larry's new book, Enrich Your Future: The Keys to Successful Investing. The book is a collection of stories that Larry has developed over 30 years as the head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Wealth Partners to help investors. You can learn more about Larry's Worst Investment Ever story on Ep645: Beware of Idiosyncratic Risks.Larry deeply understands the world of academic research and investing, especially risk. Today, Andrew and Larry discuss Chapter 27: Pascal's Wager and the Making of Prudent Decisions.Chapter 27: Pascal's Wager and the Making of Prudent DecisionsIn this chapter, Larry discusses Pascal's wager, a suggestion posed by the French philosopher Blaise Pascal that emphasizes the importance of considering the consequences of decisions rather than just the probability of outcomes.Pascal's wagerIn Pascal's wager, the philosopher asked how we should act when we cannot prove or disprove if God exists. To answer this question, the philosopher said: if a Supreme Being doesn't exist, then all the devout have lost is the opportunity to fornicate, imbibe, and skip a lot of adult church services. But if God does exist, then the atheist roasts in hell for eternity.Pascal concluded that the consequences of your actions matter far more than whatever you think the probabilities of the outcomes might be.Using Pascal's wager to make financial decisionsPascal's wager empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. It encourages us to carefully consider the consequences before accepting the risks involved in case we are wrong. This approach can be applied to a wide range of financial decisions, instilling confidence in our choices.Buying life insuranceImagine you're an average 28-year-old. You got married a few years ago and have your first child. Now, you must decide whether you should have life insurance. If you buy the life insurance, you know with a very high degree of certainty for the next 40 years, you're going to be paying away a premium to the life insurance company and foregoing their earnings that you could get by taking that money investing in the stock market and maybe get a seven to 10% per annum return.Yet, most people buy the insurance because of the consequences of their being wrong, and they happen to be unlucky enough to die, either through an accident or some disease that wasn't forecasted for them. Then, their wives and children may live in poverty. And that's just a consequence that's not acceptable.Asset allocationIn another example, Pascal discusses

Upper West Side, Mughlai Indian restaurant, Eagle Court, 84th between Broadway and Amsterdam, Alana and Daryl love Indian food, John Scully and Daryl played cribbage in college, Cribbage simply a card game, Board is just a scoreboard, Milo loved cribbage, Maybe a thousand games of cribbage with Milo, Milo liked sports video games, FIFA, Madden, NBA2K, Milo preferred a board game, Catan, Better strategist would win more often over time, Over time Milo would beat me more often than I would beat him, Video games don't require strategy the same way, Cards were always interesting to Milo, Probability and statistics, Card games quiet, Meditative component, With the Nachsins in Ocean City, Monopoly with the Nachsins, Milo and Daryl played cribbage, Milo never declined to play, Cribbage sounds like bridge, but is very simple, Milo and Daryl played at Sloan Kettering regularly, A few nurses at Sloan Kettering like cribbage, Brant Sistrom, Father and dear friend Milo died one after the other, Brant, like Milo, loved cribbage and Catan, Daryl and Brant have played cribbage together, Daryl warns Brant that he's gunning for him, Daryl invites others to play cribbage and to come to him for instruction, Great tribute to Milo, The Idea of Machines

This week your host Fred Williams and co-host Doug McBurney welcome Dr. Royal Truman to air his concerns regarding assertions that "Professor Dave" (David James Farina) makes against creation scientists.   *The Royal Treatment: Royal Truman, PhD received his bachelor's degrees in chemistry and in computer science from SUNY Buffalo, an M.B.A from the University of Michigan, a Ph.D. in organic chemistry from Michigan State with post-graduate studies in bioinformatics at the universities of Heidelberg and Mannheim in Germany.  Royal believes the God of Abraham created the universe recently, and that His Son Jesus Christ is the savior of the world.   *Setting the Stage: Concern Zero: Professor Dave claims there are no credible chemists in the creation science community.   *The Disappearing Evolutionist: Concern #1: Professor Dave claims there is no such word as "evolutionist." Someday, by the grace of God, we hope he's not mistaken!   *Whale of an Error: Concern #2: Dr. Truman helps Professor Dave and his audience understand the Hebrew word in the Bible for the great fish that swallowed Jonah.   *Just Batty: Concern #3: More help for the good professor understanding the Hebrew word in the Bible that describes bats and flying creatures.   *Constant Lunacy? Concern #4: Dr. Truman explains that Creationists assume that the rate of lunar recession was faster in the past, (contrary to Professor Dave's "bunk", we do not say it was constant).   *The Slow Kid... Concern #5: Dr. Truman points out Professor Dave's misunderstanding of the mathematics describing the celestial mechanics regarding lunar recession.   *The Mind of a Child : Concern #6: Professor Dave alleges that creation scientists misrepresent "the Big Bang" as an explosion that instantly produced fully formed planets. But we all know that creation scientists are perfectly capable of describing the Big Bang in all its absurdity, just as the evolutionists do, (typically right before we debunk it).   *Abiogenesis: Concern #7: Professor Dave accuses creation scientists of oversimplifying the enormously sophisticated origin of life research, experiments and theories that have failed for decades to produce even a basic algorithm for abiogenesis that either a PhD or a 6th grader could call convincing.   *Sprouting Off: Concern #8: Professor Dave says creation scientists accuse evolutionists of portraying creatures that suddenly sprout wings and appendages alá Richard Goldshmidt's Hopeful Monster!   *Probability & Protein: Concern #9: Most people (creationists and evolutionists) outside specialized fields within genetics are not aware that genes and proteins can vary in composition along their sequence. Professor Dave pretends this common ignorance reflects what creation scientists believe, and then unleashes a torrent of vulgar insults, "poisoning the well" for a civil debate.   *Competence & Condescension: Concern #10: Professor Dave claims there are no competent scientists in the creation science universe.   *Setting the Table: Concern #11: Dr. Truman sets up a scholarly review of concerns 11-17 of Professor Dave's so-called creationist debunk video.

Tom welcomes back Chris Rutherglen to take a very deep dive into a few gold charts. Chris is a PhD Scientist/Engineer, Level 3 CFA, and Publisher of the Gold Investor Research Substack. Chris explains how the long-term outlook for gold prices involves several key factors that influence its trajectory over time. One important aspect is the mid-cycle level of gold, which reflects the balance between the amount of gold available above ground and the overall money supply. When the money supply increases, this can raise the mid-cycle level, potentially leading to higher gold prices. Currently, gold is trading above this mid-cycle line, suggesting that a correction downward might be possible in the near term. Chris shows his charts for the debt-to-money supply ratio. Historically, this ratio has remained relatively stable at around 2.5% from the 1920s up until the late 1970s. However, after the financial crisis of 2008, it began to rise and has been declining since then. If this downward trend continues, it could drive gold prices higher as more money would be needed to support existing debt levels. Looking at long-term historical patterns, there is a suggestion that gold might reach a high point around $8,000 to $10,000 in the early 2030s. This projection is influenced by ongoing monetary expansion and economic conditions that favor safe-haven assets like gold. Despite these indicators Chris, expects predicting the future of gold prices with certainty is challenging due to a variety of factors, including inflation rates, global political and economic events, and policies set by central banks such as the Federal Reserve. Key elements to watch include quantitative easing measures and the levels of government debt, both of which play significant roles in shaping the growth of the money supply and their impact on gold demand. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:04 - Timeframes & Cycle Lengths7:52 - Long End Curve?11:58 - Levels and Zones21:00 - Gold Mid-Cycles Levels24:04 - Cycles & Calendar Periods30:15 - Probabilities & Targets32:35 - Gold & Equities Pullback33:42 - S&P GDP Ratio + CPI37:03 - Gold & Inflation42:35 - Gold Silver Ratio44:46 - Silver Price Outlook46:55 - Silver Timing & QE's51:16 - HUI Miners Vs. Gold54:15 - Major Miner Charts1:00:43 - Patience & Majors Costs1:07:30 - Long-Term Gold Timeline1:10:42 - All Sector Debt/US M21:18:12 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/CRutherglenSubstack: https://giresearch.substack.com Chris Rutherglen is a private investor whose primary occupation is in science & engineering with a focus on novel semiconductor devices for microwave and mm-wave applications. He began investing in the precious metal space in 2003 and has done well following a value-oriented investment approach. Although he has never been employed in the finance/investment field professionally, he did complete level 3 of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) program in 2011. Chris has a BS in physics from the California Institute of Technology and a Ph.D. in Electrical Computer Engineering from the University of California, Irvin

There is a word you probably use that means something entirely different than what you think. In fact, it means the opposite of what you think. Yet, this opposite meaning has become so pervasive, even dictionaries now say that the wrong meaning is now okay. Listen and I will tell you what the word is and what it really means. https://www.jalopnik.com/dear-hollywood-please-knock-it-off-with-the-overdrive-5926885/ Artificial Intelligence can seem intimidating to some. Yet it is actually quite simple to use and it can do amazing things to make your life better. It can teach you a skill, plan your dinner, plan a trip, be a brainstorming partner and counsel you to help with a problem. These are just a few of the things you'll discover how to do from listening to my guest, Celia Quillan. She is an expert in artificial intelligence and has been featured in Time, The New York Post, The Wall Street Journal, and the Today show. She is the creator of the popular TikTok and Instagram channel @SmartWorkAI and she is author of the book, AI for Life: 100+ Ways to Use Artificial Intelligence to Make Your Life Easier, More Productive…and More Fun! (https://amzn.to/3QGCYy0) We often use phrases like, “There's a good chance…” or “It's likely that….” But without knowing HOW good a chance or HOW likely something is, the phrases don't mean much. To help get a true understanding of chance, probability and luck is David Spiegelhalter, emeritus professor of statistics at the University of Cambridge and author of the book The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck (https://amzn.to/41sXdEu). You probably feel safe taking a shower in your own bathroom. But dangers are lurking – some you might never have thought of. Listen as I explain how to reduce the risk of taking a shower. https://www.menshealth.com/health/g19544438/shower-safety/ PLEASE SUPPORT OUR SPONSORS!!! FACTOR: Eat smart with Factor! Get 50% off at https://FactorMeals.com/something50off QUINCE: Indulge in affordable luxury! Go to https://Quince.com/sysk for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. TIMELINE: Get 10% off your order of Mitopure!  Go to https://Timeline.com/SOMETHING SHOPIFY:  Nobody does selling better than Shopify! Sign up for a $1 per-month trial period at https://Shopify.com/sysk and upgrade your selling today! HERS: Hers is changing women's healthcare by providing access to GLP-1 weekly injections with the same active ingredient as Ozempic and Wegovy, as well as oral medication kits. Start your free online visit today at https://forhers.com/sysk INDEED: Get a $75 sponsored job credit to get your jobs more visibility at https://Indeed.com/SOMETHING right now! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Todd Adcock is a British PGA Accredited Golf Professional and a Scott Cowx Advanced Certified Coach.  Todd turned to golf instruction after a successful playing career, highlighted by being ranked as high as 8th in the World Amateur Golf Rankings, representing England and winning the English Amateur Championship. Todd uses a holistic approach to golf instruction and most certainly applies his expertise and experience gained as a leading amateur and tournament-winning golfer. As a player he said he always looked for answers to problems and that bent led him to develop his "STOP Principle" for better decision-making, course management, and golf: S - Can I get a... Stance and Strike? T - What is the required... Trajectory" O - What are my... Options" P - What is the... Probability (of success)? He elaborates on each one of the relevant decision-making questions and illustrates how they can improve course management and scoring. He also dives into a few other game improvement concepts - (1) Finishing a Round well, (2) 1st Tee Nerves and the Opening Tee-shot, (3) Shot-shaping Windows and Club Selection, (4) Good Practice Habits, (5) Pragmatism vs. Emotionality, (6) Chasing Zeroes on a Launch Monitor, and (7) The Goldilocks Effect in Golf. This podcast is also available as a vodcast on YouTube - search and subscribe to Mark Immelman.

In this episode, my guest is Dr. Ellen Langer, Ph.D., professor of psychology at Harvard University and the world's leading researcher on the mind-body connection and the power our thinking has on our physical health. She explains how specific ways of framing and asking questions about the world shape our physical health and rate of aging. Dr. Langer also explains how our perception of time and control significantly impact our rate of physical healing, hormones, immune system, and longevity. She describes mindfulness as a way of framing life, not simply a meditation or other practice, and discusses data showing how to use one's mind to overcome health challenges and achieve remarkable outcomes. Dr. Langer is a luminary and pioneer in researching the relationship between the mind and body with scientific rigor. Her work and our discussion are applicable to women and men of all ages and walks of life. Read the full episode show notes at hubermanlab.com. Thank you to our sponsors AG1: https://drinkag1.com/huberman BetterHelp: https://betterhelp.com/huberman Helix Sleep: https://helixsleep.com/huberman Joovv: https://joovv.com/huberman Function: https://functionhealth.com/huberman Our Place: https://fromourplace.com/huberman Timestamps 00:00:00 Dr. Ellen Langer 00:02:57 Mindfulness 00:06:53 Mindless, Focus; Being Mindful 00:11:03 Sponsors: BetterHelp & Helix Sleep 00:13:41 Meditation 00:14:47 Choices & Longer Life; Mind & Body Unity, Exercise, Nocebo & Placebo Effect 00:25:39 Self, Mind-Body Interconnectedness 00:32:16 Acupuncture; Cancer & Healing, Probabilities, Tool: Tragedy or Inconvenience? 00:42:18 Sponsors: AG1 & Joovv 00:44:46 Brain & Predictions, Control & Mindlessness; Resolutions 00:48:09 “Should” Thoughts, Multitasking, Making Moments Matter, Work-Life Balance 00:56:55 Sleep, Stress, Tool: Perceived Sleep & Performance 01:01:58 Counterclockwise Study 01:06:15 Pioneering a Field, Change, Decisions & Uncertainty 01:16:47 Sponsor: Function 01:18:35 Making Sense of Behavior, Forgiveness, Blame 01:25:35 Technology, Human Drive; Tool: Noticing & Appreciating New Things 01:32:50 Art, Mindfulness, Education, Awards 01:39:30 Labels, Borderline Effect; Identity, “I Am”, Learning & Age 01:49:44 Sponsor: Our Place 01:50:56 Memory Loss, Vision; Chronic Disease, Symptom Variability 02:01:22 Deadlines, Constraints; Scientific Method & Absolutes 02:06:47 Covid Crisis, Vaccines, Uncertainty, Multiple Answers 02:12:06 Age & Decline?, Experience Levels & “Disinhibited” 02:18:18 Justice, Drama; Life-Changing Events & Perspective 02:25:45 Death, Spontaneous Cancer Remission; Will to Live 02:31:59 Mindful Hospital, Stress, Burnout, Tool: Mindful Checklist 02:36:32 Noticing, Choices 02:41:16 Coddling, Fragility, Social Media, Money 02:48:26 Tool: Playfulness 02:52:08 Nostalgia, Mindfulness; Tool: Gamifying Life; Parenthood & Work 02:59:17 Healing & Time Perception, Awareness & Neuroplasticity, Imagine Possibilities 03:07:12 Reviews & Critical Feedback, Others' Opinions 03:12:00 Enlightenment, Flexibility, Expansiveness; Everyone Song 03:19:47 Zero-Cost Support, YouTube, Spotify & Apple Follow & Reviews, Sponsors, YouTube Feedback, Protocols Book, Social Media, Neural Network Newsletter Disclaimer & Disclosures