Podcasts about Probability

In this episode, Geoff discusses the importance of understanding probabilities when calling coyotes and how it affects many aspects from land access, setups, time on stand, volume & sound selections. Hornady: https://bit.ly/Hornady-Eastmans Kryptek: https://bit.ly/Kryptek-Eastmans Lucky Duck Predator Calls: https://bit.ly/LuckyDuck-Eastmans onX hunt: https://bit.ly/onXHunt-Eastmans SigSauer: https://bit.ly/SIGSAUER-Eastmans Silencer Central: https://bit.ly/SilencerCentral-Eastmans

Back to basics baby. We're doing a couple introductory episodes on Popper's philosophy of science, following Chapter 10 of Conjectures and Refutations. We start with Popper's theory of content: what makes a good scientific theory? Can we judge some theories as better than others before we even run any empirical tests? Should we be looking for theories with high probability? Ben and Vaden also return to their roots in another way, and get into a nice little fight about how content relates to Bayesianism. We discuss Vaden's skin care routine If you find your friend's lost watch and proceed to lose it, are you responsible for the watch? Empirical vs logical content Whether and how content can be measured and compared How content relates to probability Quotes My aim in this lecture is to stress the significance of one particular aspect of science—its need to grow, or, if you like, its need to progress. I do not have in mind here the practical or social significance of this need. What I wish to discuss is rather its intellectual significance. I assert that continued growth is essential to the rational and empirical character of scientific knowledge; that if science ceases to grow it must lose that character. It is the way of its growth which makes science rational and empirical; the way, that is, in which scientists discriminate between available theories and choose the better one or (in the absence of a satisfactory theory) the way they give reasons for rejecting all the available theories, thereby suggesting some of the conditions with which a satisfactory theory should comply. You will have noticed from this formulation that it is not the accumulation of observations which I have in mind when I speak of the growth of scientific knowledge, but the repeated overthrow of scien- tific theories and their replacement by better or more satisfactory ones. This, incidentally, is a procedure which might be found worthy of attention even by those who see the most important aspect of the growth of scientific knowledge in new experiments and in new observations. - C&R p. 291 Thus it is my first thesis that we can know of a theory, even before it has been tested, that if it passes certain tests it will be better than some other theory. My first thesis implies that we have a criterion of relative potential satisfactoriness, or of potential progressiveness, which can be applied to a theory even before we know whether or not it will turn out, by the passing of some crucial tests, to be satisfactory in fact. This criterion of relative potential satisfactoriness (which I formu- lated some time ago,2 and which, incidentally, allows us to grade the- ories according to their degree of relative potential satisfactoriness) is extremely simple and intuitive. It characterizes as preferable the theory which tells us more; that is to say, the theory which contains the greater amount of empirical information or content; which is logically stronger; which has the greater explanatory and predictive power; and which can therefore be more severely tested by comparing predicted facts with observations. In short, we prefer an interesting, daring, and highly informative theory to a trivial one. - C&R p.294 Let a be the statement ‘It will rain on Friday'; b the statement ‘It willbe fine on Saturday'; and ab the statement ‘It will rain on Friday and itwill be fine on Saturday': it is then obvious that the informative contentof this last statement, the conjunction ab, will exceed that of its com-ponent a and also that of its component b. And it will also be obviousthat the probability of ab (or, what is the same, the probability that abwill be true) will be smaller than that of either of its components. Writing Ct(a) for ‘the content of the statement a', and Ct(ab) for ‘thecontent of the conjunction a and b', we have (1) Ct(a) = Ct(b). This contrasts with the corresponding law of the calculus of probability, (2) p(a) >= p(ab)

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3318: Darrow Kirkpatrick unpacks the real distinction in retirement income strategies, not between risk and safety, but between who manages the risk, you or an insurance company. He argues for a flexible, hybrid approach that evolves over time, matching both your temperament and life circumstances, rather than locking into an all-or-nothing decision early on. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://www.caniretireyet.com/are-you-feeling-lucky-the-two-schools-of-retirement-income/ Quotes to ponder: “‘Probability-based' and ‘safety-first' label the extremes in retirement planning.” “The real distinction is whether (market and longevity) risk is transferred or retained, and if retained how those risks are managed or avoided.” “Once you buy an annuity, you own that decision for life.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3318: Darrow Kirkpatrick unpacks the real distinction in retirement income strategies, not between risk and safety, but between who manages the risk, you or an insurance company. He argues for a flexible, hybrid approach that evolves over time, matching both your temperament and life circumstances, rather than locking into an all-or-nothing decision early on. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://www.caniretireyet.com/are-you-feeling-lucky-the-two-schools-of-retirement-income/ Quotes to ponder: “‘Probability-based' and ‘safety-first' label the extremes in retirement planning.” “The real distinction is whether (market and longevity) risk is transferred or retained, and if retained how those risks are managed or avoided.” “Once you buy an annuity, you own that decision for life.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Cognitive scientist and author Donald Hoffman returns to share discoveries reshaping how we understand perception, consciousness, and reality itself. Drawing from evolutionary game theory and quantum physics, he reveals why we don't see the world as it truly is—and what that means for science, spirituality, and awareness. Hoffman bridges rigorous mathematics with timeless wisdom, showing how awakening to truth means seeing through the interface of perception to what lies beyond.15% off Bon Charge order (Code KNOWTHYSELF):https://boncharge.com/knowthyselfUp to 43% off MUDWTR order + free frother:https://mudwtr.com/knowthyselfTo get your free shilajit today:https://fractalforest.co/knowthyselfAndrés Book Recs: https://www.knowthyselfpodcast.com/book-list___________00:00 Intro03:45 The Probability of Seeing the Truth10:20 Fitness vs. Truth in Evolutionary Theory17:30 The Limits of Our Perception24:15 How Language Shapes Reality31:10 States of Consciousness and Altered Perception38:50 The Virtual Headset of Space and Time42:04 Ad: Bon Charge46:35 Physics Agrees: Spacetime Is Doomed54:25 The Mystery of the Observer1:02:10 No Theory of Everything1:10:40 Consciousness vs. Physicalism1:19:15 Neural Correlates and the Illusion of Causation1:27:45 The Case for Consciousness as Fundamental1:29:38 Ads: MUDWTR, Fractal Forest1:36:20 From Science to Spirituality1:45:10 Introducing Markov Chains1:53:30 The Birth of Trace Logic2:04:20 Time Dilation and the Mathematics of Perception2:18:10 Beyond the Headset: Infinite Consciousness2:36:30 Science, Mystery, and Humility2:54:40 Conclusion___________Episode Resources: https://x.com/donalddhoffmanhttps://www.amazon.com/The-Case-Against-Reality/dp/0141983418/https://www.instagram.com/andreduqum/https://www.instagram.com/knowthyself/https://www.youtube.com/@knowthyselfpodcasthttps://www.knowthyselfpodcast.com

It's not hard to get birders talking about some of the big questions in our hobby. And this time we go back in the archives of Birding magazine to collect some historic hot takes for another edition of Take It or Leave It, the discussion panel for the most opinionated birders. This time we welcome Tim Healy and Martha Harbison to talk about Trumpeter Swan introductions, the proper plural of binoculars, and whether the internet was a good thing for birders.  Also, don't forget to bid on some great original bird art from our Bird of the Year program.  Subscribe to the podcast at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts and please leave a rating or a review if you are so inclined! We appreciate it!  

In this Nerd Trek Podcast episode, we dive into Star Trek: Deep Space Nine “Statistical Probabilities,” where Dr. Bashir works with genetically enhanced misfits whose radical predictions could change the Federation's strategy against the Dominion. Join us as we debate morality, strategy, and whether numbers can really determine destiny.

In this Nerd Trek Podcast episode, we dive into Star Trek: Deep Space Nine “Statistical Probabilities,” where Dr. Bashir works with genetically enhanced misfits whose radical predictions could change the Federation's strategy against the Dominion. Join us as we debate morality, strategy, and whether numbers can really determine destiny.

Uc Encarnacion v. Bondi, No. 22-1601 (9th Cir. Sept. 30, 2025)fugitive disentitlement doctrine; adverse credibility; demeanor not reliable; omissions; experts to use in Mexico CAT claims; OIL abandoning issue in vague footnote; Mexican mental health facilities; particularized risk of torture not overly burdensome  Maurice v. Bondi, No. 21-1395 (1st Cir. Oct. 2, 2025)adjustment of status; uncorroborated police reports; failure to follow BIA precedent; uncorroborated police reports to deny discretionary relief; Arreguin; unique stop time rule arguments; Rosa; fundamental fairness Amos v. Att'y Gen. U.S., No. 22-2095 (3d Cir. Oct. 1, 2025)due process; right to interpreter; credibility; particularly serious crime — no step two without meeting the step one elements analysis, and conspiracy; N-A-M-; exhaustion; error to deny CAT claim based on speculation; failure to identify attackers not fatal; CAT corroboration requirements; flight to Canada and return as applicant for admission; stand alone § 212(h) waiver United States v. Campbell, No. 23-6186 (10th Cir. Sept. 30, 2025)Oklahoma armed robbery; Borden; realistic probability test satisfied by the text; looking to similar out-of-state statutes and decisions; recklessness Rangel-Fuentes v. Bondi, No. 23-9511 (10th Cir. Sept. 29, 2025)no deference; Loper Bright; qualifying relative; non-LPR cancellation of removal; age out; 4,000 cap; BIA notice of appeal requirements; nexusSponsors and friends of the podcast!Kurzban Kurzban Tetzeli and Pratt P.A.Immigration, serious injury, and business lawyers serving clients in Florida, California, and all over the world for over 40 years.  Eimmigration "Simplifies immigration casework. Legal professionals use it to advance cases faster, delight clients, and grow their practices."Homepage!Demo Link!eimmigration and Visalaw! Stafi"Remote staffing solutions for businesses of all sizes"Promo Code: STAFI2025Click me! Gonzales & Gonzales Immigration BondsP: (833) 409-9200immigrationbond.com   Want to become a patron?Click here to check out our Patreon Page! CONTACT INFORMATIONEmail: kgregg@kktplaw.comFacebook: @immigrationreviewInstagram: @immigrationreviewTwitter: @immreview About your hostCase notesRecent criminal-immigration article (p.18)Featured in San Diego Voyager DISCLAIMER & CREDITSSee Eps. 1-200Support the show

The curse has plagued their family for hundreds of years. A spectral hound that preys only on those of the Baskerville name. Is Sherlock Holmes up against his most clever foe yet, or maybe...the devil himself?Sir Arthur Conan Doyle wrote 60 detective stories featuring Sherlock Holmes. The man who has turned into one of the most globally loved (and replicated) characters ever created. Dive into the world of Holmes with what is the most Halloween-season-worthy mystery he was asked to solve.Sign up for 'BTMC: Protagonist Edition', where you get EXTENDED VERSIONS of the episodes to take you even deeper into the story with more scenes, more lessons, and more of everything that makes the show what it is, as well as access to all of the Character Analysis episodes. Sign up link below: ---------------------------Get BTMC: PROTAGONIST EDITION: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://becomingmain.supercast.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠--GET THE FREE NEWSLETTER: "THE SCHOOL OF PROTAGONISM"Substack: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://substack.com/@schoolofprotagonism⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW BTMC FOR MORE GREAT CONTENT: Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://instagram.com/becomingmain⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/becomingmain⁠⁠⁠⁠

I discuss the parameters of the partial shutdown and what has occurred is not an accident and a great and planned opportunity.  I also bring up the probability of the Q operation; The inability to tell the truth about the fake school phone threats; and I read the dumbest grant request that I've ever heard of in my life.    Book Websites: https://www.moneytreepublishing.com/shop PROMO CODE: “AEFM” for 10% OFF https://armreg.co.uk PROMO CODE: "americaneducationfm" for 15% off all books and products. (I receive no kickbacks). Q posts book: https://drive.proton.me/urls/JJ78RV1QP8#yCO0wENuJQPH

Angus Fletcher has a PhD in literature from Yale and teaches English at Ohio State. He's passionate about Shakespeare. He probably owns a tweed jacket. In other words, he's the last person you'd expect to receive the Army's fourth-highest civilian honor. But when he's not parsing King Lear or dissecting Hamlet, Angus is pioneering research into narrative cognition — our ability to think in stories — and how it can make us smarter. When the Army put his theories to the test, his methods reshaped how soldiers learn to think clearly under pressure and act decisively in volatile environments. Now, he has distilled this work into a new book called Primal Intelligence. Malcolm Gladwell says it's confirmation that Angus "has never had an uninteresting thought." We think you'll agree. — — — (04:21) What is Primal Intelligence? (8:24) Computers Think in Probabilities. Humans Think in Possibilities. (11:08) The Art of Intuition: Spotting Exceptions to Rules (29:59) Why Storytelling is the Essence of Human Intelligence (34:13) How to Plan (35:38) The Role of Emotion in Decision Making (45:27) How to Use Common Sense to ‘Tune Your Anxiety' (49:34) What Great Innovators Have in Common (51:25) The Best Way to Become a Better Communicator (54:22) Don't Freak Out About A.I. Do Freak Out the State of Your Intelligence. — — — Want to connect?

An absorbing conversation featuring Colin Camerer (CASBS fellow, 1997-98), among the world's most accomplished scholars in both behavioral economics and neuroeconomics, with economist Stephanie Wang (2024-25). Camerer discusses his groundbreaking work on the neuroeconomics of self-control and habit formation; offers insights on generating ideas for, building, then scaling behavioral models; and explains why neuroscience remains a wide-open field awaiting the contributions of so-far mostly reluctant economists and other social scientists.COLIN CAMERER: Caltech faculty page | Camerer research group | on Google Scholar | Wikipedia page | bio at the Decision Lab | bio at MacArthur Foundation | STEPHANIE WANG: Pitt faculty page | Personal website | on Google Scholar | CASBS bio |Works discussed or mentioned in this episode:C. Camerer, Behavioral Game Theory: Experiments in Strategic Interaction. Princeton University Press, 2003.C. Camerer, "Can Asset Markets Be Manipulated? A Field Experiment with Racetrack Betting," Journal of Political Economy, 1998.C. Camerer, et al., "The Golden Age of Social Science," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2021.C. Camerer, et al., "A Neural Autopilot Theory of Habit: Evidence from Consumer Purchases and Social Media Use," Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 2024.S. Wang, C. Camerer, et al., "Looming Large or Seeming Small? Attitudes Toward Losses in a Representative Sample," Review of Economic Studies, 2025.F. Ramsey, "Truth and Probability" (1926), published in F. Ramsey, The Foundations of Mathematics and Other Logical Essays (1931)U. Malmendier, S. Nagel, "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?" Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2011.M. Cobb, The Idea of the Brain: The Past and Future of Neuroscience, Basic Books, 2020.M. Gaetani, "CASBS in the History of Behavioral Economics," CASBS website, 2018.Also of interest:S. Wang, et al., eds., "Mindful Economics: A Special Issue in Honor of Colin Camerer," Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, forthcoming.  Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences (CASBS) at Stanford UniversityExplore CASBS: website|Bluesky|X|YouTube|LinkedIn|podcast|latest newsletter|signup|outreach​Human CenteredProducer: Mike Gaetani | Audio engineer & co-producer: Joe Monzel |

Chelsea Quinn Yarbro (1942-2025) Tanith Lee (1947-2015) This podcast honors two master practitioners of horror, fantasy and science fiction, Chelsea Quinn Yarbro and Tanith Lee, with two interviews back to back. In the first, in 1983, Tanith Lee is interviewed by Chelsea Quinn Yarbro. In the second, in 1979, Chelsea Quinn Yarbro is interviewed by Richard Wolinsky.  Chelsea Quinn Yarbro, who died on August 31, 2025 at the age of 82, was best known for her historical horror novels featuring the vampire the Count Saint.-Germain. Along the way, she wrote in several genres, including science fiction and westerns, and wrote over seventy novels, along with several short stories. Along with her writing, which includes a series of books about a channeler,  titled Messages from Michael, she was a cartographer, palm reader, and composer. In 2009, she received the Bram Stoker Lifetime Achievement Award from the Horror Writers Association. She also wrote novels under several pseudonyms. In this podcast, Chelsea Quinn Yarbro joins Richard A. Lupoff to speak with Tanith Lee. In the second interview, she talks about her vampire hero. Count Saint-Germain, and about writing historical horror fiction. It was recorded shortly after her second San Germain novel, The Palace, was published, which would put it in late 1978 or early 1979..   Tanith Lee, who died of breast cancer in 2015 at the age of 67, also wrote fantasy, science fiction and horror, and her work is considered to be similar and a forerunner of the work of Neil Gaiman. She received a lifetime achievement award from the World Horror Convention in 2013. Nominated for several awards for her novels and short stories, she won the 1980 British Fantasy Award for her novel, Death's Master. In this first undated tnterview from Probabilities, most likely recorded at BayCon in San Jose in November 1983, Tanith Lee is interviewed by Chelsea Quinn Yarbro and Richard A. Lupoff. This is the only interview conducted by Quinn Yarbro for Probabilities. Tanith Lee's novel set during the French Revolution was eventually retitled The Gods Are Thirsty, and was finally published in 1996. You've been listening to an interview with Tanith Lee, conducted by Chelsea Quinn Yarbro and Richard A. Lupoff for the Probabilities radio program on KPFA. It was digitized, remastered and edited on September 24. 2025.         The post The Probabilities Archive: Chelsea Quinn Yarbro & Tanith Lee: Virtuosos of Horror, Fantasy and Science Fiction appeared first on KPFA.

The Odds of You Being You Guest: Ali Binazir By Stuart McNish   About four and a half billion years ago, Earth's Hadean eon was undergoing significant geological and chemical changes. Evidence suggests that the Earth's first crust was forming and the beginnings of life were lining up. Fast-forward 3.8 billion years and biological life started to emerge shortly after the formation of the oceans.   It was a turbulent time in Earth's history and the evidence suggests that human intelligence emerged a few million years ago. “If you consider everything that had to happen to allow for human life to emerge from the biological soup, the odds worked against it ever happening,” says Dr. Ali Binazir, the author of “Are you a Miracle? On the Probability of You Being Born” and “Five Hidden Love Questions.”   Now add in the odds of you being born you – not your brother, not your sister, not your cousin. You.  Binazir says, “When you factor in the 155,000 generations of your family that preceded you, the odds are one in 400 quadrillion against you being born [as] you.” In other words, you are a miracle.   We invited Dr. Ali Binazir to join us for a Conversation That Matters about embracing the magic and miracle of being born you.   You can see the interview here https://www.conversationsthatmatter.ca/ Learn More about our guests career at careersthatmatter.ca

Jennifer Lee Chan joins Sportsphone KNBR with Carlos Ramirez to discuss how Brock Purdy is recovering from injury and his probability to play against the Jaguars.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

UK Property Market Weekly Update - Week 37, 2025 Welcome to the 37th UK Property Market Stats Show of 2025, your weekly YouTube ‘TV programme' on the UK housing market. This week, I'm joined by Toby Phillips, boss man of Martin & Co, CJ Hole & some other franchise brands of TPFG as we unpack the key headlines from Week 37 (ending Sunday 21st September 2025). ▶️ Watch on YouTube: 
https://youtu.be/nIMgRKVgnYM

A Japanese government panel said Friday it now thinks that a huge earthquake will occur along the Nankai Trough with a probability of 60pctto 94.5pctor higher within the next 30 years.

Bookwaves/Artwaves presents in-depth interviews with authors of fiction and narrative non-fiction, delving deeply into political and social issues, literary technique, and the life of the author, along with interviews devoted to theatre and film, and archive interviews from Bookwaves and Probabilities. Hosted by Richard Wolinsky. The post Bookwaves/Artwaves – September 25, 2025 appeared first on KPFA.

Get early access to Alex's next live-cohort courses!Today's clip is from episode 141 of the podcast, with Sam Witty.Alex and Sam discuss the ChiRho project, delving into the intricacies of causal inference, particularly focusing on Do-Calculus, regression discontinuity designs, and Bayesian structural causal inference. They explain ChiRho's design philosophy, emphasizing its modular and extensible nature, and highlights the importance of efficient estimation in causal inference, making complex statistical methods accessible to users without extensive expertise.Get the full discussion here.Intro to Bayes Course (first 2 lessons free)Advanced Regression Course (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)TranscriptThis is an automatic transcript and may therefore contain errors. Please get in touch if you're willing to correct them.

Steiny & Guru figure out how the Warriors and Jonathan Kuminga can make amends before transitioning to the 49ers, where there is a clear decision to make at the QB position... Don't tell Kyle Shanahan that!

UK Property Market Weekly Update - Week 36, 2025 Welcome to the 36th UK Property Market Stats Show of 2025, your weekly YouTube ‘TV programme' on the UK housing market. This week, I'm joined by Rob Smith, boss man of Hunters, Whitegates & Northwood as we unpack the key headlines from Week 36 (ending Sunday 14th September 2025). ▶️ Watch on YouTube: 
https://youtu.be/NIZb3BcVDgk

Willard and Dibs react to hearing not just Mac Jones going to the podium today but also Brock Purdy...who is starting?

Devin Jackson and Az talk about Lantern Legacy for team sealed   Probability simulator etc: https://owens.dev/   Our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/jsaclix Have you heard of http://ClixNexus.com? Clixnexus.com Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/clixnexus Dishin' Up Clix Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DishinUpClix Dial H: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRFVQVhJX6evub-SvQyLtMg Dice Station Zebra: https://www.youtube.com/@DiceStationZebra Check out some Roll20 tutorials here: Happy Little Heroclix - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPJBi-PNiW4 Emily - http://withemily.ca/roll20-for-heroclix-tutorial-set-up-play-tips/

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Brian Burke, Sports Data Scientist at ESPN, joins Cade Massey, Eric Bradlow, and Shane Jensen to share insights on building advanced football power ranking systems, the role of Bayesian models in balancing priors and new data, and how analytics informs game-day decisions like fourth-down calls and playoff predictions. Cade, Eric, and Shane also analyze standout performances and key narratives from NFL Week One, preview pivotal college football games, examine the growing dominance of Carlos Alcaraz over Jannik Sinner in men's tennis, and highlight major offensive trends across Major League Baseball. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Brian Burke, Sports Data Scientist at ESPN, joins Cade Massey, Eric Bradlow, and Shane Jensen to share insights on building advanced football power ranking systems, the role of Bayesian models in balancing priors and new data, and how analytics informs game-day decisions like fourth-down calls and playoff predictions. Cade, Eric, and Shane also analyze standout performances and key narratives from NFL Week One, preview pivotal college football games, examine the growing dominance of Carlos Alcaraz over Jannik Sinner in men's tennis, and highlight major offensive trends across Major League Baseball. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Derek Moore and Shane Skinner talk about the rally in gold no one seems to care about and the gold oil ratio. Then, they go through the indicators used to determine recessions and note they don't seem that bad, although nonfarm payrolls did disappoint. But private sector jobs are growing while the government jobs are falling, so are fed cuts greenlit? Later, looking at S&P 500 net income margin percentage average per decade. Yup, they've been rising each decade.  Finally, looking at forward PE ratios against forward EPS and how some stocks like Broadcom got cheaper after last earnings. All this and much more!   Next companies that are likely to join the S&P 500 Index Employment rate and non-farm payrolls Government vs Private Sector jobs Gold Oil ratio and what it means at these levels The rally in Gold over the past couple of years Central Banks buying gold AVGO Broadcom earnings and forward PE ratio and forward EPS estimates Recession indicators S&P 500 Index net profit margins by decade (they are rising) Why margins may not revert to the mean Fed rate cut probabilities jump after employment report       Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com

The FF Dynasty, Season 9, Episode 75: Casey, @Chev90, + Joseph @KoalatyStats are back for part 2 - The Projection Model's least favorite Fantasy Football targets for 2025 -- Kenneth Walker III Chase Brown Cam Skattebo Travis Hunter CeeDee Lamb DK Metcalf -- ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Fantasy Football Survivor⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ (NEW GAME!) Free ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Patreon⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ + ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Discord⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 5 Star Contest ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Insta⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TikTok⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ --

One of the greatest challenges a parent can face is an adult child who rejects the values they were taught growing up. Jim Daly shares why it’s important to remember that good parenting is a probability not a promise. Support Family Ministry If you've listened to any of our podcasts, please give us your feedback.

Although some countries are making great headway in eliminating vertical transmission of HIV, more than 100 000 infants acquire HIV each year. Maggie Walters and Michelle Bulterys talk us through their research into factors that affect the probability of vertical transmission and what it says about efforts to end new infant acquisitions.Read the full article:https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanhiv/article/PIIS2352-3018(25)00132-8/fulltext?dgcid=buzzsprout_icw_podcast_August_25_lanhivContinue this conversation on social!Follow us today at...https://thelancet.bsky.social/https://instagram.com/thelancetgrouphttps://facebook.com/thelancetmedicaljournalhttps://linkedIn.com/company/the-lancethttps://youtube.com/thelancettv

Frederik Pohl (1918-2013) recorded at the Octocon Science Fiction Convention, October 15-16, 1978. Interviewers: Richard Wolinsky, Richard A. Lupoff and Lawrence Davidson, for KPFA's Probabilities radio program. Digitized, remastered and re-edited February, 2021 by Richard Wolinsky. Frederik Pohl, who died in 2013 at the age of 93 in September, 2013, did almost everything in the world of science fiction, as a writer, an agent, and a magazine and book editor. He grew up in Brooklyn, began writing at an early age, and in his twenties was a member of a leftist group of science fiction writers known as The Futurians, publishing for pennies a word in the sf pulps of the era. In 1937, in order to make money, he became an agent, and two years later a pulp magazine editor himself, often buying his own stories along with collaborations with various other writers, all under pseudonyms. In the late 1960s, he became editor of Galaxy Magazine, and its sister publication, Worlds of If, and in the 1970s became the science fiction editor at Bantam Books which he left shortly before this interview. In the mid 1970s, Fred Pohl  emerged as one of science fictions pre-eminent novelists with Man Plus in 1976 and Gateway in 1977. In 1978, on the heels of novelist Damon Knight's memoir, The Futurians, he came out with his own memoir, The Way the Future Was. And that was where his career stood when the three of us interviewed him. We were all still new at interviewing, particularly in placement of the microphone. Fred Pohl's success continued for many years after this interview. Jem, published in 1979, won the National Book Award the only year there was an award for science fiction. The sequel to Gateway, Beyond the Blue Event Horizon was a finalist for both the Hugo and Nebula Awards in 1980. In all, there eventually were seven novels in the Gateway  (Heechee) series, and after 1979, all told, he wrote 17 more novels, the last being The Lives He Led, published in 2011, along with several collections, even more collaborations, and some non-fiction as well. At the time of his death at 93 in 2013, he was working on a second memoir, which has to date not been published. NOTES. Judy Lynn Del Rey was the sf editor at Ballantine Books starting in the early 1970s and soon had her own imprint, Del Rey Books (in collaboration with her husband, writer Lester Del Rey). Judith Merrill was a writer and anthologist, noted for her Year's Best SF Stories collections, which she edited from 1956 to 1968. John Michel was a key member of the Futurians who never fulfilled his promise. John W. Campbell was the editor of Astounding Stories, later Analog, from 1937 into the 1970s, and is credited with discovering such writers as Isaac Asimov and Robert Heinlein. His influence on science fiction was all-encompassing, even as his politics were, as Isaac Asimov quipped, somewhere to the right of Hitler. Horace Gold was the first editor of Galaxy, before Fred Pohl. It was the magazine that brought literary style into science fiction. Other names mentioned are Anthony Boucher and F. Francis McComas, the first editors of the Magazine of Fantasy and Science Fiction, F&SF. This podcast was first posted February 14, 2021. Three Futurians in 1938: Donald Wollheim, later publisher of DAW books, Fred Pohl, and John Michel. Creative Commons photo donated by the Wollheim family. The post The Probabilities Archive: Frederik Pohl (1918-2013) Acclaimed Science Fiction & Fantasy Novelist and Editor appeared first on KPFA.

Devin Jackson and Az talk about the CCOs and worlds info   Probability simulator etc: https://owens.dev/   Our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/jsaclix Have you heard of http://ClixNexus.com? Clixnexus.com Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/clixnexus Dishin' Up Clix Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DishinUpClix Dial H: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRFVQVhJX6evub-SvQyLtMg Dice Station Zebra: https://www.youtube.com/@DiceStationZebra Check out some Roll20 tutorials here: Happy Little Heroclix - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPJBi-PNiW4 Emily - http://withemily.ca/roll20-for-heroclix-tutorial-set-up-play-tips/

One of the many tools used during the financial planning process is the Monte Carlo simulation, which uses historical and personal financial data to predict the probability of certain outcomes in retirement. Nathan discusses how advisors use statistical analysis to help clients plan for retirement, and how the quality of the data you put in can mean the difference between success and failure. Also, on our MoneyTalk Moment in Financial History, Nathan and Daniel cover the birth of communism during the Russian Revolution, and the economic collapse that followed. Host: Nathan Beauvais CFP®, CIMA®, CPWA®; Special Guest: Daniel Sowa; Air Date: 8/20/2025. Have a question for the hosts? Visit sowafinancial.com/moneytalk to join the conversation!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jesse Michels is a YouTuber and show host, exploring subjects like UFOs, consciousness, and reality. For nearly a century, UFOs have captured our imagination as one of humanity's greatest mysteries. Are they secret technology, alien visitors, or something else entirely? Who is behind them, what has been concealed, and what has been revealed about them? After decades of unanswered questions, are we any closer to uncovering the truth about these unknown objects in the sky? Expect to learn why learning about UFOs is maladaptive to some people, how we know if UFOs are real or just a psy-op, if there are underground hidden bases with aliens scattered across the US, the connection with UFO sightings and nuclear sites, if UFOs might be just man made crafts or if there are other unknown technologies at play, if there is any evidence for antigravity currently and where it might come from, and much more… Sponsors: See me on tour in America: ⁠https://chriswilliamson.live⁠ See discounts for all the products I use and recommend: https://chriswillx.com/deals Get a Free Sample Pack of LMNT's most popular Flavours with your first purchase at https://drinklmnt.com/modernwisdom Get 5 Free Travel Packs, Free Liquid Vitamin D, and more from AG1 at https://ag1.info/modernwisdom Get $100 off the best bloodwork analysis in America at https://functionhealth.com/modernwisdom Get the best bloodwork analysis in America at https://functionhealth.com/modernwisdom Timestamps: (0:00) Why is an Interest in UFOs Maladaptive? (1:36) What Does a Modern UFO Investigator Look Like? (12:03) Why is There So Little Evidence of UFOs? (20:24) How Do We Know UFOs Aren't a PSYOP? (27:47) Are UFOs a Global Phenomenon? (29:28) The Threat of Nuclear Sites (35:57) Why are Non-Human Intelligences on Earth? (38:56) Nuclear Site Interference by UFOs (46:56) Are the Department of Energy Involved? (55:58) How Far Can Civilians Go With UFO Research? (01:00:19) What Physics are Behind UFOs? (01:10:36) Where are We Currently in Physics? (01:16:25) Why Was Townsend Brown's Experiment Never Replicated? (01:23:01) Why are Renegade Scientists So Highly Criticised? (01:37:02) Where Elon Musk is Going Wrong with Space Exploration (01:43:15) Are We Heading Towards an AI Takeover? (01:48:40) Assessing the Probabilities of Non-Human Intelligence (01:53:23) Consciousness in Quantum Physics (02:09:37) Find Out More About Jesse Extra Stuff: Get my free reading list of 100 books to read before you die: https://chriswillx.com/books Try my productivity energy drink Neutonic: https://neutonic.com/modernwisdom Check out Jesse's YouTube Channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@jessemichels Episodes You Might Enjoy: #577 - David Goggins - This Is How To Master Your Life: https://tinyurl.com/43hv6y59 #712 - Dr Jordan Peterson - How To Destroy Your Negative Beliefs: https://tinyurl.com/2rtz7avf #700 - Dr Andrew Huberman - The Secret Tools To Hack Your Brain: https://tinyurl.com/3ccn5vkp - Get In Touch: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/chriswillx Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/chriswillx YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/modernwisdompodcast Email: https://chriswillx.com/contact - Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this week's episode of the Coin Stories News Block powered exclusively by Ledn, we cover these major headlines related to Bitcoin, macroeconomics, and global finance: Bitcoin hits $124K before a sharp pullback — what triggered it Treasury Secretary Bessent's comments spark confusion on U.S. Bitcoin reserve Norway's $1.8T wealth fund ramps up Bitcoin exposure Fed rate cut pressure builds, a potential tailwind for Bitcoin Block unveils first American-made, modular Bitcoin mining rig ---- The News Block is powered exclusively by Ledn – the global leader in Bitcoin-backed loans, issuing over $9 billion in loans since 2018, and they were the first to offer proof of reserves. With Ledn, you get custody loans, no credit checks, no monthly payments, and more. My followers get .25% off their first loan! Learn more at www.ledn.io/natalie  ---- Read every story in the News Block with visuals and charts! Join our mailing list and subscribe to our free Bitcoin newsletter: https://thenewsblock.substack.com  ---- References mentioned in the episode: Bessent Says Government Not Buying Bitcoin Bitcoin Touches New All-Time High Above $124,000 Arkham Intelligence's Estimation of Government Holdings Bessent Suggests Government Bitcoin Buys Possible Scott Bessent's Tweet on Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Market Giving 85% Probability of September Rate Cut Norway's Sovereign Wealth Increases Bitcoin Exposure  Fed to Sunset Bank Supervision Program Around Crypto Caitlin Long's Tweet on End of Fed Supervision Program Saylor's Tweet on End of Fed Supervision Program Fed Shutters Its Crypto Bank Supervision Program Crypto Exchange Bullish Enjoys Blowout in NYSE Debut Bullish Shares Surge 150% in NYSE Debut Nakamoto & KindlyMD Close Merger to Start BTC Treasury Co.  Gemini Announces Lead Bookrunners for IPO Gemini Filings Show Plans to Launch on the NASDAQ  Bank of America Survey on Investor Bitcoin Exposure Steve Barbour's Thread Reviewing Block's Proto Rig Hashrate Index's Review on Block's New Proto Rig Bitcoin Magazine's Review on Block's New Proto Rig  Block Unveils New Proto Rig and Proto Fleet Strategy Acquires an Additional 430 Bitcoin ----- Pre-order my upcoming book, Bitcoin is for Everyone: https://talkingbitcoin.com/resources  ---- My upcoming events: Bitcoin 2026 will be here before you know it. Get 10% off Early Bird passes using the code HODL: https://tickets.b.tc/event/bitcoin-2026?promoCodeTask=apply&promoCodeInput=  Your Bitcoin oasis awaits at Camp Nakamoto: A retreat for Bitcoiners, by Bitcoiners. Code HODL for discounted passes: https://massadoptionbtc.ticketspice.com/camp-nakamoto      ---- This podcast is for educational purposes and should not be construed as official investment advice. ---- VALUE FOR VALUE — SUPPORT NATALIE'S SHOWS Strike ID https://strike.me/coinstoriesnat/ Cash App $CoinStories #money #Bitcoin #investing

How does philosophy inform modern physics? And how do physicists incorporate philosophy into their research? On this episode, we dive into those questions with philosopher Dr. Timothy McGrew and astrophysicist Dr. Luke Barnes in order to help you fine tune your thinking about the fine tuning of the universe. Critics of the fine-tuning argument will often invoke probabilities in order to get around the argument's deeper implication of the existence of God. Tim and Luke will explore some of the issues in probability theory as it informs the physics of the fine-tuning argument. Dr. Timothy McGrewTimothy McGrew is Professor of Philosophy at Western Michigan University, where he has taught for the past 25 years. His research interests include formal epistemology, the history and philosophy of science, and the history and philosophy of religion. When he is not doing philosophy, he enjoys playing chess online, coaching at his local chess club, running trails, and making high quality paper airplanes. He lives in SW Michigan with his wife, Lydia McGrew, and their daughters.Dr. Luke BarnesDr Luke A. Barnes is a Senior Lecturer in Physics at Western Sydney University. With a PhD in astronomy from the University of Cambridge, he has published papers in the field of galaxy formation and on the fine-tuning of the Universe for life. He is the coauthor with Prof. Geraint Lewis of A Fortunate Universe: Life in a Finely-Tuned Cosmos and The Cosmic Revolutionary's Handbook: (Or: How to Beat the Big Bang), published by Cambridge University Press. Free Articles from Watchman Fellowship Profile on Naturalism: https://www.watchman.org/Naturalism/ProfileNaturalism.pdf Profile on Scientism: https://www.watchman.org/scientism/ProfileScientism.pdf Profile on Atheism: https://www.watchman.org/profiles/pdf/atheismprofile.pdf Additional ResourcesFREE: We are also offering a subscription to our 4-page bimonthly Profiles here: www.watchman.org/FreePROFILE NOTEBOOK: Order the complete collection of Watchman Fellowship Profiles (around 700 pages -- from Astrology to Zen Buddhism) in either printed or PDF formats here: www.watchman.org/NotebookSUPPORT: Help us create more content like this. Make a tax-deductible donation here: www.watchman.org/GiveApologetics Profile is a podcast ministry of Watchman Fellowship For more information, visit www.watchman.org © 2025 Watchman Fellowship, Inc.

Click here to Shop Affirmation Decks, Oracle Decks, and more! Use Promo code: RCPODCAST20 for 20% off your first order!   Today's Power Affirmation: I believe in miracles because I am a miracle.   Today's Oracle of Motivation: Some smart people with dope computers estimate more stars are visible from Earth with super telescopes than there are grains of sand on the Earth. Another smart dude, Dr. Ali Binazir, estimates that your being birthed from your parents and existing as you are today is "the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with a trillion-sided dice. They each roll the die, and they all come up with the same number, for example, 550,343,279,001." Faith is the part of you that dares to believe in miracles, and since you are a miracle, dare to believe in yourself - 'k?   Designed to Motivate Your Creative Maniac Mind The 60-Second Power Affirmations Podcast is designed to help you focus, affirm your visions, and harness the power within your creative maniac mind! Join us daily for a new 60-second power affirmation followed by a blast of oracle motivation from the Universe (+ a quick breathing meditation). It's time to take off your procrastination diaper and share your musings with the world!   For more musings, visit RageCreate.com     Leave a Review & Share! Apple Podcast reviews are one of THE most important factors for podcasts. If you enjoy the show, please take a second to leave the show a review on Apple Podcasts! Click this link: Leave a review on Apple Podcasts Hit “Listen on Apple Podcasts” on the left-hand side under the picture. Scroll down under “Ratings & Reviews” & click “Write A Review” Leave an honest review. You're awesome!  

Devin and Jackson and Az Have Isaac on to talk can nats and other recent events   Probability simulator etc: https://owens.dev/   Our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/jsaclix Have you heard of http://ClixNexus.com? Clixnexus.com Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/clixnexus Dishin' Up Clix Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/DishinUpClix Dial H: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRFVQVhJX6evub-SvQyLtMg Dice Station Zebra: https://www.youtube.com/@DiceStationZebra Check out some Roll20 tutorials here: Happy Little Heroclix - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPJBi-PNiW4 Emily - http://withemily.ca/roll20-for-heroclix-tutorial-set-up-play-tips/

On this episode of Data Driven, we're shuffling up some probability, statistics, and a bit of Las Vegas magic with Dr. Michael Orkin—a renowned statistician, data scientist, and former advisor to casino odds makers. Hosts Andy Leonard, Frank La Vigne, and BAILeY dig into the fascinating numbers behind games of chance, uncovering why the house almost always wins and how our brains are wired to find patterns—sometimes where none exist.Whether you're a data enthusiast, a casual gambler wondering why your lucky streak never lasts, or just curious about how randomness, probability, and big jackpots work, this episode has you covered. Dr. Orkin breaks down concepts like the house edge, expected value, card counting, the allure (and statistical pitfalls) of lottery tickets, and the psychology driving “hot” and “due” gambling strategies. Plus, he weighs in on lightning strikes, Black Swan events, correlation and causation, and the curious human habit of seeing connections in random outcomes.So, get ready for a lively conversation that reminds us data is everywhere—especially where stakes are high and luck seems just out of reach. Whether you're here for probability puns, real-world math, or the stories Vegas doesn't want you to know, this is one episode you won't want to miss!LinksThe Story of Chance https://amzn.to/45qOe8x Dr Mike's Substack https://drmikeorkin.substack.com/Moments00:00 Casino House Edge Explained08:54 "Random Chance and Unlikely Events"12:03 Justifying Buying Lottery Tickets16:58 "SBF: Crypto King Unraveled"26:34 Lightning Strike Probability Calculation Issues32:26 Average Beyond Desk Boundaries33:26 "Defining Accident Prone"39:31 Misjudging Odds with Normal Curve45:50 Avoiding Lightning Strikes: Bay Area55:11 Casino Mind Games Experience56:20 Roulette Betting Strategies: Apophenia01:03:33 "Dr. Orkin's Website & Substack"01:07:19 "Probability and the House Edge"

Some travel isn't back and forth in TIME, but rather sort of horizontal...   original text:   PLACEBO By DAVID MASON Each 1955 was worse than the last! [Transcriber's Note: This etext was produced from Infinity Science Fiction, November 1955. Extensive research did not uncover any evidence that the U.S. copyright on this publication was renewed.] The object appeared in the middle of Main Way, about fifty feet from the statue of Vachel Lindsay, and at least a hundred from anything else. It was much too big and complicated to have been hidden anywhere, and it hadn't any wheels, tracks, wings, or other visible means of movement. Corrigan, looking the object over, decided that it could not have come from any logical place in the world. Not being prejudiced, he then thought a little about the illogical places, and the places that weren't in the world. Corrigan decided that it must be another attempt at time travel, and he clucked his tongue sympathetically. Well, someone had to break the news. Corrigan arose from the grass and walked toward the object. There was a young man sitting in the object, on a sort of high saddle. He looked a little wild-eyed, and he seemed to be talking to himself, as he pulled and twisted at the rows of controls in front of him. Corrigan, looking up at him, decided that he couldn't be very healthy, and that the stiff gray garments he wore must be extremely uncomfortable. "Greetings, traveler," Corrigan called. "You're speaking Anglish!" the young man exclaimed. "Good! Maybe I can get some help here. What year is this?" "1955, by most systems." The young man turned a little paler. "I've just left 1955," he said unhappily. "Four times, in fact. Four different 1955's. And each one's a bit worse. Now the machine won't work." "Your theory's wrong," Corrigan said calmly. "Hasn't it occurred to you yet that time travel might be impossible?" The young man made a choked sound. He began to climb down from his perch, keeping his eyes fixed suspiciously on Corrigan as he did so. He saw Corrigan as a small brown man, dressed in loose blue trousers, barefooted, and with a puff of white hair that seemed never to have been properly cut. The lawns and grassy roads, the bright and impermanent-looking buildings, and Corrigan himself, all added up to one thing in the young man's mind. "You're wrong," Corrigan said. "I'm not a lunatic, and this isn't an asylum. We don't have them." The young man, on the ground now, stared at Corrigan in evident horror. "Mind reading?" "More or less," Corrigan said. "It saves time. For instance, you're Darwin Lenner, and you'd like very much to get back to wherever you started from. In fact, you have to, or something unpleasant might happen to you, by your standards." "I'd be absent without permission," Lenner admitted. "I ... I wish you wouldn't do that." "Only when absolutely necessary," Corrigan smiled. "I'm a philosopher by trade, myself, not a mind reader. My name's Philip Corrigan, and I'd be very glad to help you on your way ... but I think it might be a little difficult. We aren't really a very mechanically-minded people here." Lenner ran his hands through his hair. "I've got to get back. Isn't there anybody who knows something about time machines?" Corrigan had been thinking swiftly. He had also been carrying on a conversation which Lenner could not possibly hear, with a man who was several miles away. "Burwell, he wants to go home." "Fine. He ought to. Why doesn't he?" "He lost his confidence. He thinks his machine's broken down." "That kind, eh? I suppose the thing never really did work very well." "Most of them don't. They go traveling around hit-or-miss through probability under the operator's own mental steam—but this fellow probably comes from a world where an idea like that's illegal." "Sounds like it. Corrigan, take him on a guided tour or something, and keep him busy. I'll be over as soon as I can. I'm going to do something for his self-confidence. Here's the story to give him...." Corrigan had always enjoyed conducting guided tours, and he was enjoying this one especially well. He had a slightly wicked taste for complicated teasing, and Lenner was a perfect object. He had evidently come from one of the more unpleasant probabilities, a world full of complex rules and harshly restrictive; everything that he saw bothered him. The handsome girls, wearing unstrategically placed flowers and very little else; the flocks of children, as plentiful as pigeons and apparently as free of supervision; the almost total absence of anybody actually performing useful work ... all of it contributed to Lenner's increasing nervousness. The guided tour went in a wide circle, and Lenner and Corrigan wound up sitting in a tavern facing on Main Way. Lenner ignored the green drink before him and peered unhappily out the big window toward his machine. "Where is that friend of yours?" he asked, for the fifth time. "He'll be here," Corrigan assured him. "Why hurry? Don't you like it here?" Lenner's mouth hardened. He looked around him, and shook his head. "No." He spoke almost apologetically, "I'm sorry ... well, look, old fellow, no hard feelings, I hope. But this world of yours is primitive. Degenerate, I'd say." "Primitive?" "No laws—not even morals! Those girls ... and of course, you don't have any civilized advantages. Not even ground transportation. That man you spoke of has to walk here. And that's something else I don't understand. You say he's another time traveler...." "Probability traveler, actually," Corrigan corrected. "All right, probability. Why does he stay here? Why would a really intelligent man give up civilization?" "Well, you know how it is. He's gone native, you might say. Life among the lotus eaters, and all that. Might happen to anybody, even yourself." Lenner shuddered. "It's all right, though." Corrigan continued. "He'll be here any minute, and I'm sure he'll be able to help. Knows all there is to know about these machines. In fact, here he comes now." Burwell entered, and Corrigan could hardly suppress a small chuckle. Burwell had picked up Lenner's ideas about what a man of intelligence and authority ought to look like, and had gone to some trouble to look the part. He was wearing a uniform of some sort, spectacles, and an expression of extreme wisdom. "I'm sure I can repair what's wrong," Burwell told Lenner. "Let's go and look at your machine." Arriving, Burwell climbed over the mechanism with an air of bored ability, occasionally thumping at something, adjusting something else, or hitting a part with a tool until it rang. He muttered to himself as he worked, allowing the sound of his musings to drift in Lenner's direction. "Umm ... badly twisted impeller ... the varish is more or less waffled ... let's see if ... ah, there we are." He climbed down and solemnly shook hands with Lenner. "Fine machine you've got there, my boy. It'll take you back to your own place quite easily now. There wasn't a thing wrong except the drift crotch. However, I wouldn't use it again if I were you. There's no real control on these things. A man could end up anywhere. And of course, you'd never find your way back here, without control." "Well, thanks..." Lenner said doubtfully. He glanced around. "It's a shame there's no way we could regularly communicate between our worlds. There's a lot we could do for this one." "I'm sure of that," Burwell said, hastily looking away. "But it isn't worth the danger and difficulty of reaching us. For myself, it doesn't matter any more." He assumed a nobly tragic expression. "But you are young; you've got your life ahead of you; your State and your society need you. I'm glad to help you on your way." Lenner mounted the machine, and Burwell beamed a thought at Corrigan. "I've convinced him that the thing works, and that it would not be easy to come back. Actually, that machine of his is a real work of art. It doesn't do a damn thing. This boy comes from a place where they have to have a mechanical crutch for everything. His gadgets are pink pill stuff ... something to convince him he can do things he could do anyway. All we have to do now is give him a small mental shove to help him along, and he'll be home in no time. All right, now—SHOVE!" Corrigan and Burwell shoved. Lenner and his machine faded and were gone, leaving only a flattened place on the grass. "Brrr," Burwell said. "Am I glad that worked! If he'd stayed another week or so we would have had our first lunatic of the century." "Or worse," Corrigan said, stirring the grass with his toes. "Did you get what he was thinking about when he talked about his world and ours getting into touch, and civilizing us?" "I got it, all right." Burwell said. "The fellow's mind was a swamp. A real primitive. And just like any other primitive, all he needed was a placebo from a witch doctor. Me, in my savage regalia. Just let me get this thing with the glass in it off my nose, and these button things opened up a bit, and we can get on with that chess game. I hope the next traveler picks somewhere else to land, though—I've never felt so silly in my life!"

Matter of Felix-Figueroa, 29 I&N Dec. 157 (BIA 2025)isomers; possession of methamphetamine; realistic probability test; burdens Rivera Samayoa v. Bondi, No. 24-1432 (1st Cir. July 28, 2025)cancellation of removal; exceptional and extremely unusual hardship; mixed questions of law and fact; discretionary relief; cumulative hardship analysis Real v. U.S. Att'y Gen., No. 24-1545 (3d Cir. July 30, 2025)due process; extraordinary circumstances; one-year asylum deadline; jurisdiction; INA § 208(a)(2)(D); INA § 203(a)(3) Navarro v. Bondi, No. 24-1253 (4th Cir. July 31, 2025)MS-13; CAT protection; credibility; omissions; expert evidence; more likely than not; issue exhaustion.   Sanchez-Banos v. Bondi, No. 24-2241 (8th Cir. Aug. 1, 2025) administrative closure; Avetisyan factors; failure to submit hardship evidenceSponsors and friends of the podcast!Kurzban Kurzban Tetzeli and Pratt P.A.Immigration, serious injury, and business lawyers serving clients in Florida, California, and all over the world for over 40 years.  Cerenade"Leader in providing smart, secure, and intuitive cloud-based solutions"Demo Link!Click me too!get.eimmigration.com/resources  Stafi"Remote staffing solutions for businesses of all sizes"Promo Code: STAFI2025Click me! Gonzales & Gonzales Immigration BondsP: (833) 409-9200immigrationbond.com   Want to become a patron?Click here to check out our Patreon Page! CONTACT INFORMATIONEmail: kgregg@kktplaw.comFacebook: @immigrationreviewInstagram: @immigrationreviewTwitter: @immreview About your hostCase notesRecent criminal-immigration article (p.18)Featured in San Diego Voyager DISCLAIMER & CREDITSSee Eps. 1-200Support the show

In this episode of the Tough Girl Podcast, we're joined by Dr. Sarah Ruggins—a high-achieving investment professional, academic powerhouse, and now a record-breaking ultra-endurance cyclist. From her early days as a national-level track athlete in Canada to surviving complex PTSD and rebuilding her life, Sarah's journey is one of transformation, resilience, and radical self-belief. In 2023, Sarah competed in the Transcontinental Bike Race, and in 2025, she took on her most audacious challenge yet: cycling from John O'Groats to Land's End and back again—2,715 km in just 5 days, 11 hours, and 14 minutes, setting a new outright record. This conversation dives deep into the planning, training, and mindset behind the ride—from strength work and 3:30 AM mornings to battling hallucinations, sleep deprivation, and pain barriers. Sarah shares her three-part mantra—Focus, Discipline, Gratitude—and unpacks how elite performance is built in the margins: with structure, strategy, and sacrifice. Whether you're chasing a personal goal or looking for motivation to push your own limits, this is an episode that will fuel your fire.  New episodes of the Tough Girl Podcast drop every Tuesday at 7 AM (UK time)! Make sure to subscribe so you never miss the inspiring journeys and incredible stories of tough women pushing boundaries.  Do you want to support the Tough Girl Mission to increase the amount of female role models in the media in the world of adventure and physical challenges? Support via Patreon! Join me in making a difference by signing up here: www.patreon.com/toughgirlpodcast.  Your support makes a difference.  Thank you x Show notes Who is Dr Sarah Ruggins Working as an investment professional for the past 10 years  Growing up in Canada  Being part of a very active family Doing a lot of running and focusing on track and field  Working with the best coaches Holding national records in middle distances  Preparing for junior olympics at 14/15 Wanting to represent her country at the highest level Her teenage years Needing a routine surgery on her feet Developing a disease of her nervous system  The impact on her life Developing complex PTSD  Getting back to a ‘normal life' Starting to focus more on academics  Getting 4 degrees in 4 different subjects Competing in the trans continental bike race in 2023 Wanting to understand what her limits were John O'Groats to Lands End and back again Being supported by a crew Working with Rob Lee from RLP Coaching  What training looked like from Sept/October 2024 to May 2025 What a typical week looked like Working with a strength coach to compliment what she was doing on the bike Increasing the volume of training on both the bike and in the gym Squats increasing from 45kg to - 4 sets of 5 reps at 110kg While working a full time job in finance  Having her whole life scheduled from 3.30am - 10pm  Figuring out life admin Setting big goals in your life - you need to be prepared to make sacrifices in pursuit of those goals  Planning, schedules and logistics  Coming back to the WHY was integral  Building the team and pulling everyone together Reaching out to sponsors Wanting to make a history making ride Probability, chance and luck Going to maximise our probabilities of success  Being on the start line being 100% confident Being forced to be brave and tough - but coming from a place of power Wanting to demonstrate to herself her own resilience and wanting to inspire others Starting the challenge and wanting to ride to her capabilities Working in blocks of 4 hours and focusing on the power.  Managing her process and focusing on what's on the road ahead Riding 4 hours and then off the bike for 10 mins - the ‘Pitt stops' What goes on in those 10 mins  Eating and nutrition and eating constantly while on the bike How her body responded to the challenge  3 phases while doing endurance work:  phase 1, the first 36 hours - feeling great, phase 2 hitting a pain wall which you need to push through, phase 3 -  where you feel like you can go forever, your body has accepted this is just what you do now Going though the pain wall and pain gate  The mind body connection and what was happening mentally Developing a 3 part mantra: focus, discipline and gratitude  The biggest challenge while on the bike  Not being able to tolerate solid foods on day 3 Moving to liquid food - Supported by Huel  Dealing with the sleep deprivation - confusion and falling asleep while on her bike Crashing into a nettle bush and going into hyperglycemic shock  Using blue light to wake her up Being ahead of the record by about 7 hours and 175km - stick to the process Reaching the end  The feelings of relief  Keeping your emotions locked in for 5 days  Being able to relax! 2715 km in 5 days 11 hours 14 minutes. NEW OUTRIGHT RECORD HOLDER Her limits…. Taking the learning and applying it to new projects Recovery after the challenge Getting back on the bike and back in the gym Raising funds for 2 charities  The Bike Project  Bikes for Refugees  How you can connect with Sarah Working on a feature documentary about the challenge - due in early 2026 Final words of advice from Sarah Understand what is most important to you, and curate an objective around that  Demonstrate aggressive patience in pursuit of your goals  Focus on the small wins everyday.   Social Media Instagram @sarah_ruggins   

In this week's episode of the Coin Stories News Block powered exclusively by Ledn, we cover these major headlines related to Bitcoin, macroeconomics, and global finance: White House digital assets report declares support for self-custody, compares Bitcoin to the internet and railroad Strategy announces record $10 billion profit, smashing Wall Street expectations Bo Hines hints at government buying Bitcoin President Trump fires labor statistics boss Is recession bullish for Bitcoin? ---- The News Block is powered exclusively by Ledn – the global leader in Bitcoin-backed loans, issuing over $9 billion in loans since 2018, and they were the first to offer proof of reserves. With Ledn, you get custody loans, no credit checks, no monthly payments, and more. Learn more at www.ledn.io/natalie  ---- Read every story in the News Block with visuals and charts! Join our mailing list and subscribe to our free Bitcoin newsletter: https://thenewsblock.substack.com  ---- References mentioned in the episode: White House's Digital Assets Working Group Report  Casa CEO Nick Neuman's Tweet on WH Report WH Compares Bitcoin to Railroads and the Internet White House Lays Out Roadmap for Digital Assets Bo Hines Addresses Questions on Strategic Bitcoin Reserve JPMorgan to Enable Crypto Purchases Through Coinbase Transcript of SEC Chairman Atkins' Speech  SEC Chairman Atkins Debuts “Project Crypto” SEC Allows In-Kind Creation/Redemption for Bitcoin ETFs SEC Chair Publicly Supports the Right to Self Custody Brian Armstrong's Tweet About Coinbase's Bitcoin Purchase Coinbase's Q2 2025 Earnings Major Takeaways  Strategy's Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation  Strategy Smashes Wall Street's Earnings Estimates  Strategy Announces New $4.2 Billion Stretch Offering Saylor Calls Stretch Strategy's “iPhone Moment” Lyn Alden's Tweet on Stretch's (STRC) Potential  Metaplanet Announces Preferred Share Issuance  Metaplanet Announces Two Classes of Perpetual Preferreds Fed Governor Exit Could Accelerate Trump's Selection President Trump Fires Labor Statistics Chief  Largest Two-Month BLS Jobs Revision Since 2020 Luke Gromen's Tweet on Trump Firing BLS Chief Market Giving >80% Probability of September Rate Cut Turkish President Fires Statistics Boss After Record Inflation ---- Natalie's Upcoming Events: Bitcoin 2026 will be here before you know it. Get 10% off Early Bird passes using the code HODL: https://tickets.b.tc/event/bitcoin-2026?promoCodeTask=apply&promoCodeInput=  Your Bitcoin oasis awaits at Camp Nakamoto: A retreat for Bitcoiners, by Bitcoiners. Code HODL for discounted passes: https://massadoptionbtc.ticketspice.com/camp-nakamoto      ---- This podcast is for educational purposes and should not be construed as official investment advice. ---- VALUE FOR VALUE — SUPPORT NATALIE'S SHOWS Strike ID https://strike.me/coinstoriesnat/ Cash App $CoinStories #money #Bitcoin #investing

How does philosophy inform modern physics? And how do physicists incorporate philosophy into their research? On this episode, we dive into those questions with philosopher Dr. Timothy McGrew and astrophysicist Dr. Luke Barnes in order to help you fine tune your thinking about the fine tuning of the universe. Critics of the fine-tuning argument will often invoke probabilities in order to get around the argument's deeper implication of the existence of God. Tim and Luke will explore some of the issues in probability theory as it informs the physics of the fine-tuning argument. Dr. Timothy McGrew https://timothymcgrew.com/ Timothy McGrew is Professor of Philosophy at Western Michigan University, where he has taught for the past 25 years. His research interests include formal epistemology, the history and philosophy of science, and the history and philosophy of religion. When he is not doing philosophy, he enjoys playing chess online, coaching at his local chess club, running trails, and making high quality paper airplanes. He lives in SW Michigan with his wife, Lydia McGrew, and their daughters. Dr. Luke Barnes. https://letterstonature.wordpress.com/luke/ Dr Luke A. Barnes is a Senior Lecturer in Physics at Western Sydney University. With a PhD in astronomy from the University of Cambridge, he has published papers in the field of galaxy formation and on the fine-tuning of the Universe for life. He is the coauthor with Prof. Geraint Lewis of A Fortunate Universe: Life in a Finely-Tuned Cosmos and The Cosmic Revolutionary's Handbook: (Or: How to Beat the Big Bang), published by Cambridge University Press. Free Articles from Watchman Fellowship Naturalism: https://www.watchman.org/Naturalism/ProfileNaturalism.pdf Scientism: https://www.watchman.org/scientism/ProfileScientism.pdf Atheism: https://www.watchman.org/profiles/pdf/atheismprofile.pdf Additional Resources FREE: We are also offering a subscription to our 4-page bimonthly Profiles here: https://www.watchman.org/Free PROFILE NOTEBOOK: Order the complete collection of Watchman Fellowship Profiles (around 700 pages -- from Astrology to Zen Buddhism) in either printed or PDF formats here: https://www.watchman.org/Notebook SUPPORT: Help us create more content like this. Make a tax-deductible donation here: https://www.watchman.org/Give Good Heavens! is a podcast ministry of Watchman Fellowship For more information, visit https://www.watchman.org/ © 2025 Watchman Fellowship, Inc.

In this episode of Retire with Style, Wade Pfau and Alex Murguia tackle listener questions on a range of financial topics, including gold's volatility, alternative investments, and how to measure retirement success. They discuss the realities of investment returns, the impact of recent U.S. bond downgrades, and the importance of understanding risk, using historical data, and maintaining a solid investment strategy in retirement.   Takeaways Gold has lower average returns and higher volatility than stocks. Alternative investments require careful evaluation due to lack of historical data. Quantifying retirement success rates can provide clearer financial goals. The magnitude of failure in financial planning is crucial to understand. Investors should assess the compensated risk of their investments. Monte Carlo simulations can help in understanding potential outcomes. The funded ratio approach simplifies retirement planning. US bond downgrades may not significantly impact long-term market trajectories. Understanding the underlying assumptions of financial plans is essential. Risk assessment is a key component of effective financial planning. Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Overview of Q&A Session 02:33 Debating Gold's Volatility and Investment Value 08:56 Exploring Alternative Investments and Their Evaluation 19:03 The Importance of Theoretical Justification in Investments 20:17 Understanding Retirement Planning Tools 23:04 Probability of Success vs. Rate of Return 27:21 Magnitude of Failure in Financial Planning 30:31 The Funded Ratio Approach 34:06 Evaluating Financial Advisors 36:15 Impact of US Bond Downgrades   Links Explore the New RetireWithStyle.com! We've launched a brand-new home for the podcast! Visit RetireWithStyle.com to catch up on all our latest episodes, explore topics by category, and send us your questions or ideas for future episodes. If there's something you've been wondering about retirement, we want to hear it! The Retirement Planning Guidebook: 2nd Edition has just been updated for 2025! Visit your preferred book retailer or simply click here to order your copy today: https://www.wadepfau.com/books/ This episode is sponsored by McLean Asset Management. Visit https://www.mcleanam.com/retirement-income-planning-llm/ to download McLean's free eBook, “Retirement Income Planning”

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Could a summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping be on the horizon? Secretary of State Marco Rubio says it's a "high probability." It follows Rubio's meeting with China's top diplomat—details on that, coming up. The Trump administration is working to ban ownership of U.S. farmland by Chinese nationals. But that's just one piece of the bigger picture when it comes to keeping America's food supply safe. The Pentagon is becoming the top stakeholder in the United States' largest rare earths miner. This deal is a key step toward securing America's rare earths supply amid challenges from China. And are trade tensions between the U.S. and Brazil pushing South America's largest economy closer to China? A Brazilian expert says yes—and shares more about China's rising influence in the region. The United States names China a key threat during a meeting of top military chiefs from the U.S., Japan, and South Korea. At the same time, a B-52 bomber made a rare flight this year over the Korean Peninsula.  

Sam Dogen, founder of Financial Samurai and one of the original F.I.R.E. voices, joins Ryan Sean Adams to break down the path to financial independence, whether you're investing in crypto or other asset classes. They unpack 10 milestones to millionaire status, from mindset and momentum to investing, real estate, and entrepreneurship. Sam and Ryan go deep on how to avoid financial landmines, get on the same page with a partner, and define a life where money serves purpose, not the other way around. If you want your net worth to grow without losing your life to the grind, this episode is your roadmap. ------

#IRAN: BDA LOW PROBABILITY. COLONEL JEFF MCCAUSLAND , USA (RETIRED) @MCCAUSLJ @CBSNEWS @DICKINSONCOL 1870 TEHRAN