Podcasts about Probability

After a year of gambling I am none the wiser of understanding probabilities.In Episode #523 of 'Meanderings', Juan & I discuss: probabilities/gambling/arbitrage, how my brother first found ways to exploit betting promotions, using sports betting apps in conjunction with Polymarket, how markets set probabilities, whether AI will become genuinely better than humans at predicting future outcomes, complexity making exact prediction almost impossible and the future of livestreaming and personal data. Stan Link: https://stan.store/meremortalsTimeline:(00:00:00) Intro(00:02:33) How betting promotions can tilt the odds(00:05:52) Getting gubbed and the limits of beating bookies(00:07:28) Casino systems, card counting and roulette stories(00:12:29) Polymarket, lay bets and online arbitrage appeal(00:15:17) Bots, algorithmic trading and speed advantages(00:20:56) A human edge in clunky betting markets(00:23:04) Probability confusion and betting both sides(00:27:36) How do you build probabilities from scratch(00:35:52) Weather, complexity and what probability really means(00:43:58) Can AI actually predict the future(00:54:30) Why the betting edge disappears over time(00:57:15) Live data, streaming and future tech habits(01:03:26) AI music, data ownership and universal compute(01:09:04) Human judgement, long bets and future projects(01:15:22) Podcast updates, yoga training and closing notes Connect with Mere Mortals:Website: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/Discord: https://discord.gg/K99e8fysBnTwitter/X: https://twitter.com/meremortalspodsInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/meremortalspodcasts/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@meremortalspodcastsValue 4 Value Support:V4V: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/supportPaypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/meremortalspodcast

Are you superstitious? Do you have a lucky charm? Or do you believe that everything in life is set up for you already so nothing is by chance? Maybe a bit of both?As we close out the NBA championships, celebrate Hamilton's first F1 win in Ferrari, and head into World Cup games, everyone's discussing luck these days. Whether it's Jordyn Woods' lucky purse or wearing the same underwear every game, we all have something we anchor onto. Besides controlling or hedging on within their control based on past experiences or logical reasoning, there is always a desire to influence the uncontrollable. Yet on the other hand, there are people who don't believe in chance or don't believe in controlling chance. For them, whatever is meant to happen can happen. As someone who is actively working on control issues, chance is something I struggle with often since people often tell me I'm very lucky. Today, let's click into that and see what that really entails.

We are live at Jimmy's ahead of USA vs Australia and we are already buzzing! Matt “Stretch” Johnson is in the seat next to Chuck and giving us all of the soccer knowledge. It's going to be a BIG day in Seattle! :30- Mariners Morning After The Mariners got a 3-0 win over the Orioles and a series win after Bryan Woo threw 7 shutout innings. :45- US star Christian Pulisic's status for today's match is still up in the air- how big of a deal is it if he's out? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We're going to continue our look at IAS 37 in this episode - fantastic!We recap the three key conditions for recognising a provision, then move on to contingent assets, why prudence matters, and why you cannot simply net off a possible asset against a possible liability. I also bring in the important link with IFRS 3 and fair value, showing how a contingent liability can affect group accounts and goodwill even when it is not recognised in the subsidiary's own books.By listening to this episode, you will learn how to apply IAS 37 in exam-style situations, not just repeat the rules. I explain the difference between probability as a recognition issue under IAS 37 and as a measurement issue in group accounts. You will also learn how decommissioning provisions interact with PPE, why the provision must be discounted, and how both depreciation and the unwinding of the discount affect profit or loss. This is exactly the kind of application that helps you pick up marks in SBR.Thanks for listening to this episode of Pass Your SBR ACCA Exams with Tom Clendon.If you'd like to view the exam question on screen and see my working, subscribe to the YouTube Channel: ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@tomclendonSBR⁠⁠.For access to on-demand support and guidance for your ACCA SBR Journey, visit my website to see my current course offering: ⁠⁠https://tomclendon.co.uk/⁠⁠.Chapters(00:00) Introduction to IAS 37 part two(01:25) Quick recap of the three provision criteria(02:11) What is a contingent asset?(03:11) Recognition rules and prudence(04:06) Why provisions and contingent assets are not netted off(04:53) Linking IAS 37 with IFRS 3 and fair value(06:45) Example: unfair dismissal claim(08:44) Group accounts: contingent liabilities and goodwill(12:01) Decommissioning provisions and PPE(14:48) The key issue: discounting the provision(16:21) Depreciation and unwinding the discount(17:03) Final exam-focused recap

Your Weekly UK Property Market Update

Aram, Peter and Fink react to Jeff Passan's Trade Deadline article for ESPN which details the highest probability trade candidates down to the lowest and who the best fits are. Intro: 0:40 Aroldis Chapman: 3:40Freddy Peralta: 11:16Luis Arraez: 19:15Tarik Skubal: 24:32Ryan Jeffers: 34:10Gleyber Torres: 40:25Coin Flip Trades: 46:00Longshot Trades: 57:00 All the Important Links! Join our Just Baseball Discord Just Baseball Merch! Subscribe to Our New Newsletter! Use Code "JUSTBASEBALL" when signing up on BetMGMSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ze is de laatste tijd weer wat meer binnen onze belevingswereld. Die ster in het midden van ons zonnestelsel, de zon. Elke dag voorziet deze zon ons van energie en warmte. Het maffe is echter dat er nog een heleboel niet bekend is over onze zon. In deze aflevering hoort u nieuwe inzichten op basis van een recent wetenschappelijk onderzoek.Investigating Pre-Flare Signatures in Spectroscopic Observations of an X9-Class Solar Flare:https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11207-026-02674-6Scientists find strange changes on sun hours before a powerful X9 solar flare: 'I was not expecting what I found':https://www.space.com/astronomy/sun/scientists-find-strange-changes-on-sun-hours-before-a-powerful-x9-solar-flare-i-was-not-expecting-what-i-foundUsing Extreme Value Theory for Determining the Probability of Carrington-Like Solar Flares:https://arxiv.org/pdf/1604.03325v1Solar Dynamics Observatory:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_Dynamics_ObservatoryCoronal mass ejection:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejectionDe Zimmerman en Space podcast is gelicenseerd onder een Creative Commons CC0 1.0 licentie.http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0

In this episode of Communicable, Emily McDonald and Josh Davis are joined by Roger Lewis (USA) and Ian Marschner (Australia) to compare and contrast Bayesian and frequentist statistical approaches. The panel discusses the fundamental principles of both methods, common misconceptions, and the extent to which they are often more similar than many realise. Together, they explore their use in clinical trial design, analysis, and reporting, including adaptive trials and sequential learning. Additional topics include sample size misconceptions, regulatory versus clinical thresholds, and the challenges of interpreting post hoc reanalyses of negative trials.This episode was edited by Kathryn Hostettler and the executive producer of Communicable is Angela Huttner.  Further reading:Berry SM, et al. Bayesian Adaptive Methods for Clinical Trials (Chapman & Hall/CRC Biostatistics Series). Boca Raton (FL): CRC Press; 2010. FDA Guidance Document: Use of Bayesian Methodology in Clinical Trials of Drug and Biological Products FDA, 2026, https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/use-bayesian-methodology-clinical-trials-drug-and-biological-productsLee TC, et al. Contextualizing the use of corticosteroids in severe Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia through a Bayesian lens. CMI Comms 2025, https://www.cmi-comms.org/article/S2950-5909(25)00082-4/fulltextLivingston EH and Lewis RJ. JAMA Guide to Statistics and Methods, https://jamaevidence.mhmedical.com/Book.aspx?bookId=2742Marschner I. Confidence distributions for treatment effects in clinical trials: Posteriors without priors. Stat Med 2024, doi: 10.1002/sim.10000.Whitehead J. The design and analysis of sequential clinical trials. Revised 2nd ed. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons; 1997.

The Government is pushing ahead with plans to build a liquefied natural gas terminal in New Zealand as a security buffer for when locally-made, renewable energy sources dry up. Reporter Whena Owen travels to Taranaki, the proposed site of the facility, to ask residents how they feel about having LNG in their backyard. Join Jack Tame and the Q+A team and find the answers to the questions that matter. Made with the support of NZ on Air.

Welcome to IDEA Collider. In this episode, host Dr. Alex Gray, Chief Medical and Innovation Officer at IDEA Pharma, is joined by colleague Jacqueline Poot, President of Strategic Consulting and Analytics, to discuss the intricacies of pharmaceutical portfolio strategy.  This episode has accompanying slides that can be found on YouTube https://youtu.be/DKdy_MShWBA They tackle the growing view that the pharmaceutical industry doesn't just have a science problem; it has an execution problem. Alex breaks down how human biases, such as confirmation bias and champion bias, can derail clinical development and lead to poor portfolio choices. They emphasize that stopping a failing project early is just as critical to an organization's overall success as advancing a good one.  The episode explores successful decision-making frameworks from top-performing companies, analyzing how AstraZeneca's 5Rs framework reversed late-stage failures and examining structured matrices such as Roche's RAVE, Amgen's RAVE, and Pfizer's DICE. Alex also highlights Eli Lilly's highly successful Chorus unit and their use of AI to drive objective resource allocation. Tune in to hear why relying solely on standard Probability of Technical Success (PTS) models or Risk-Adjusted NPV is flawed, how operational issues drive numerous Phase 3 failures, and the incremental but powerful role machine learning will play in the next generation of drug development.

Today on this edition of the Zone 103 Technology Lab Shorts is the Decrete Probability Mania.Recorded 3/28/2026

Today on this edition of the Zone 103 Math Lab Shorts is the Decrete Probability ManiaRecorded 3/21/2026

We're podcasting per the launch of the World Cup-tracking Probability Cup, but of course, just had to talk about Wednesday night's NBA Finals classic. The BIG question on my mind: Should predictors/gamblers price in the NBA's massive incentive to make this great series continue? Topics!* Knicks–Spurs Finals comeback analysis and whether San Antonio collapsed or New York surged.* How teams should manage volatility differently when protecting large leads versus playing from behind.* Debate over NBA referee incentives, league interests, and the possibility of series-extension bias.* SportsPredict's World Cup Probability Cup and using prediction contests to identify analytical talent.* Whether modern hiring should adopt a “Moneyball” approach by measuring forecasting skill instead of relying on traditional credentials.* Is the big money in studying idiot sports predictors or geniuses?Again, join our Probability Cup contest and perhaps win an iPad Pro ($1,000 value) or $200 Ticketmaster gift card. Accept the challenge and learn more at sportspredict.com/probabilitycup.House of Strauss is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.houseofstrauss.com/subscribe

On this week's episode of our show, Captain Ingle and I set a course for the 24th century and Federation station Deep Space 9. After discovering that he was illegally genetically augmented by his parents, Doctor Bashir meets with a group of fellow augments to give them a sense that someone who has been thus modified can live a normal life in The United Federation of Planets. Join us as we go boldly!

Check out the show on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpooeG6v2Bk&list=PLzlOUy5O5WpfrW07p50dtK55vnb7CcK1h&pp=sAgCRepentance on Stream #178 (06/18/2021)(00:00) Melons and Manufactured Outrage(07:48) Statistics and Probability(15:23) Drinking Habits(20:06) Regional Foods(29:54) Spoilers and Childhood MoviesRepentance on Stream #179 (06/19/2021)(40:42) Crypto and NFTs(52:01) Customer Service Interactions

George travels to South America to investigate a sure-fire gambling system at a casino called "Caesar's." Unfortunately, the man who invented the system has been murdered and his formula is missing! - Originally aired September 29, 1952

This week we are getting nerdy as we explore one of the most fascinating and often overlooked aspects of Human Design: Perspective. As the world feels increasingly overwhelming and attention is pulled in countless directions, understanding your unique Perspective can help reduce mental anxiety, create healthier filters around information, and bring you back into alignment. We dive into the six Human Design Perspectives—Survival, Possibility, Power, Wanting, Probability, and Personal—and explain how each one offers a unique lens for observing the world. You'll learn why you're designed to focus on a specific aspect of life and how embracing your natural Perspective can help you feel more grounded, empowered, and mentally clear.   Key Takeaways: Why mental overwhelm often comes from trying to see and process everything instead of honoring your natural Perspective. How your Perspective reveals the unique way your mind is designed to observe the world and offer valuable insights. How each of the six Perspectives has a specific area of genius—from seeing possibilities and probabilities to understanding power dynamics, survival needs, personal impact, and human fulfillment. Why understanding your Perspective can help you create healthier boundaries around media consumption and information overload. Why trusting the observations you're naturally designed to make can help reduce anxiety and allow you to contribute your unique wisdom to the collective.   Free Mini-Courses!: FREE Transits & The Harmonic Gate Mini-Course FREE Human Design Readings 101 Masterclass Join us in Your Human Design Besties! Get our book: Your Human Design! Online Human Design Reader Training 64 Gates & Gene Keys Training Future trainings and Retreats can be found on daylunalife.com Instagram: @‌d.a.y.l.u.n.a    

In this episode of Money & Meaning, Jeff Bernier speaks with Peter Nakada, Chief Education Officer at Stone Ridge Asset Management, about alternative investments and the role they can play in building more resilient retirement portfolios. They examine why traditional portfolios are often overly dependent on corporate profits and interest rates, and how “true alternatives” like reinsurance may provide diversification benefits that traditional alternatives cannot. Peter explains catastrophe bonds, quota shares, risk premiums, and the behavioral challenges investors face when allocating to alternative asset classes during periods of uncertainty and market volatility.    Topics covered:  Why traditional portfolios may be overly tied to stocks and bonds The difference between traditional alternatives and “true alternatives” How reinsurance works and why it exists Understanding catastrophe bonds and quota shares Natural disaster risk as an investable risk premium Hard and soft insurance markets and how pricing adjusts after losses Why reinsurance may help improve portfolio resilience in retirement Expected return assumptions for reinsurance strategies Portfolio allocation considerations for alternative investments Behavioral challenges investors face during periods of natural disasters Probability biases and investor psychology in alternative asset classes Why staying invested through market cycles matters    Useful Links:    Jeff Bernier on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/jeffberniercfp_the-money-and-meaning-show-activity-7202103509700227072-h0Qn/  TandemGrowth Financial Advisors: https://www.tandemgrowth.com/  Peter Nakada on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-nakada  Stone Ridge: https://www.stoneridgeam.com/  Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) 

ServiceNow is down almost while the market sits at all-time highs. That kind of divergence is exactly what options traders look for. The trade: buy one 110 put, sell three 100 puts for a net credit of $190. That structure gives you a break-even near $95, right where the stock was trading just a few weeks ago. Probability of profit sits at 86% and theta decay runs at $10 a day. The only catch is buying power this one uses about $7,600. But buying a 75 put as a wing brings that down under $3,000 with almost no impact on the credit or the probability.

Most people think they have a financial plan. But when you ask what that plan actually is, the answer is usually: "Some mutual funds, ETFs, a broker… and hopefully retirement works out." That is not a financial plan. Today, on Financial Detox, Jason and Alex break down the massive difference between simply owning investments and having a true, interactive financial plan designed around your life, taxes, spending, goals, and long-term decision-making. You'll see how real planning works: Modeling lifetime income and spending Stress testing for volatility and inflation Analyzing taxes and future cash flow Testing retirement scenarios in real time Creating clarity around what you can actually afford The goal is not just portfolio growth. The goal is freedom, confidence, and the ability to make decisions without fear. What we cover in this episode:

Justin Spillers, founder of Real Estate Alpha, reveals how a decade of disciplined strategy paved his path to dominating Ohio's multifamily market from building a proprietary property database to mastering broker relationships and innovative outreach tactics. Imagine never missing a prime opportunity because your data is 90% accurate, and you're always top of mind with owners and brokers. Justin shares the exact methods that deliver high-conversion outreach: personalized video mailers, creative direct-owner campaigns, and the power of consistent follow-up. You'll discover how meticulous data scrubbing, the right CRM tools, and AI-enhanced processes keep his pipeline overflowing even in slow markets. Justin Spillers Partner & Manager of Real Estate Alpha Based in: Minster, Ohio Where to find them: https://www.linkedin.com/in/justinspillers/ realestatealpha.io/ Book your free demo today at bill.com/bestever and get a $100 Amazon gift card. Visit https://malabarhillcapital.com/ for more info. Podcast production done by⁠ ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week we are joined for the 4th time by physicist Sam Kuypers. From his Conjecture Institute profile: “Quantum physicist, interested in foundational questions. In his research, published in reputable scientific journals, he explores the quantum theory of time, the many-worlds interpretation, and locality.”We discuss: Is probability theory true? Is it useful? What is the connection between probability theory and physics? Does the many worlds interpretation make probability theory more true or less true?⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Support us on Patreon⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Magick is not what you think it is. Strip away every movie, every Halloween costume, every Satanic Panic TV special from the 80s, and what you're left with is a probability engineering technology that has been systematically kept from public knowledge for at least three thousand years. Not because it doesn't work. Because it does. And a technology that works — that gives the practitioner a genuine advantage in shaping outcomes — is the last thing a ruling class shares with the people it rules.Thanks to the TIN FOIL MULISHAExclusive episodes on Patreon https://www.patreon.com/c/ufonopodcastJoin the Tin Foil Mulisha Discord:⁠ https://discord.gg/PQyaJzkt4Y⁠Paypal Donation ⁠https://www.paypal.com/ncp/payment/Y6WRSW9F2JBSCStripe Donation https://buy.stripe.com/aFa6oGeiXamjdlW39HgUM00Buy Merch⁠ https://ufono.dashery.com/ | https://ufono-podcast.creator-spring.com/Buy Mushrooms⁠ https://www.schedule35.co/us/ (Code: U1173687US240607)⁠Email: Iwant2believe115@gmail.com

Magick is not what you think it is. Strip away every movie, every Halloween costume, every Satanic Panic TV special from the 80s, and what you're left with is a probability engineering technology that has been systematically kept from public knowledge for at least three thousand years. Not because it doesn't work. Because it does. And a technology that works — that gives the practitioner a genuine advantage in shaping outcomes — is the last thing a ruling class shares with the people it rules.Thanks to the TIN FOIL MULISHAExclusive episodes on Patreon https://www.patreon.com/c/ufonopodcastJoin the Tin Foil Mulisha Discord:⁠ https://discord.gg/PQyaJzkt4Y⁠Paypal Donation ⁠https://www.paypal.com/ncp/payment/Y6WRSW9F2JBSCStripe Donation https://buy.stripe.com/aFa6oGeiXamjdlW39HgUM00Buy Merch⁠ https://ufono.dashery.com/ | https://ufono-podcast.creator-spring.com/Buy Mushrooms⁠ https://www.schedule35.co/us/ (Code: U1173687US240607)⁠Email: Iwant2believe115@gmail.com

In today's episode, I talk about the Steelers' potential interest in Brendan Sorsby and then explore Antonio Brown and a potential HOF bid in 2027. Make sure to follow us on all platforms to keep listening to our Steelers analysis! Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2X4xxKryrcuQowgv61L0X1 Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bleav-in-steelers/id1485137299 iHeart Radio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/269-bleav-in-steelers-52369965/ TuneIn: https://tunein.com/podcasts/Podcasts/Bleav-in-Steelers-p1264828/?topicId=545505812 Jack's X: https://x.com/imjackonthecall Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

https://teachhoops.com/ If you want to build a team that can survive a late-game run, you have to stop being a "Joystick Coach." When you control every movement from the sideline, you are building a team that is (1)__________ rather than (2)__________. A championship program is built on the belief that the coach's job is to prepare the mind, while the player's job is to (3)__________ the moment. The "Zero-Second" Rule: Players should know their next move (4)__________ they catch the ball. This reduces mental (5)__________ and keeps the defense in a constant state of recovery. Constraints-Led Training: Instead of running "dry" 5-on-0 sets, use (6)__________ games to force players to solve problems in real-time. If you want them to make better decisions, you must increase the (7)__________ of those decisions in every practice. The "V" Word: To truly let players lead, a coach must practice (8)__________. This means allowing a turnover to happen in June so that the player has the (9)__________ to fix it in January. Next Play Speed: The most important decision a player makes is how they respond to a (10)__________. A player-led team has zero (11)__________ after a whistle. Dependent: If they always look at the bench for the play, they can't adapt to the flow of the game. Autonomous: You want "thinkers" who can solve puzzles without a timeout. Execute: The plan is yours; the execution is theirs. Before: This is the hallmark of high-IQ basketball. Friction: Indecision is the enemy of $eFG%$. Small-Sided: 2v2 and 3v3 drills create more "touches" and "choices" per minute. Rep Density: Don't just count shots; count the number of decisions made. Vulnerability: You have to be okay with "ugly" practices where learning is actually happening. Experience: Knowledge is what you read; experience is what you do when things go wrong. Mistake: The "Next Play" is always the most important one. Hang-Time: Eliminate the emotional baggage that slows down transition. When you let players make decisions, you are moving from Transactional Coaching (do this to get that) to Transformational Coaching (becoming the type of person who knows what to do). The PhilosophyThe Worksheet for CoachesThe Coach's Master KeyWhy This MattersStageThe Coach's RoleThe Player's RolePreparationDesigns the "Constraints" and the "Standard."Studies the "Why" and masters the skill.Live ActionObserves and takes notes for the "Truth Room."Makes "Zero-Second" decisions based on the read.The DebriefAsks: "What did you see on that play?"Reflects on the "Probability" of that choice. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Episode: 1577 The Monty Hall Problem and the unexpected value of information.  Today, we learn not to turn our back on information.

MSE host Bill Powers applies Howard Marks' January 2020 memo “You Bet” to junior mining speculation, emphasizing that decision quality and outcomes aren't the same because both luck and process drive results. Drawing on Annie Duke's book “Thinking in Bets,” Powers urges probabilistic thinking, accurate assessment of one's own skills and being comfortable uncertainty. Marks' framework distinguishes games by hidden information, luck, and skill. Powers argues junior resource markets are less efficient “alpha markets” where skill does matter. A key lesson is evaluating the “proposition” (odds relative to the price) rather than just picking the “favorite” or “best.” Action items: read the memo, read Duke's book, and audit recent investments for accurate proposition identification and probabilistic reasoning. 00:00 Mindset Reset 00:31 Howard Marks Memo 02:10 Process Not Outcome 04:34 Thinking in Bets 06:16 Games Luck Skill 08:19 Alpha Markets Edge 09:06 The Proposition 12:02 Nifty Fifty Junk Bonds 14:14 Eight Gambling Lessons 19:57 Second Level Thinking 20:27 Action Items Howard Mark's “You Bet” memo: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/you-bet.pdf?sfvrsn=785dbe65_8 Annie Duke's “Thinking in Bets”: https://www.annieduke.com/books/ Sign up for our free newsletter and receive interview transcripts, stock profiles and investment ideas: http://eepurl.com/cHxJ39 Bill Powers is not a licensed financial advisor. Mining Stock Education offers informational content based on available data but it does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice. It may not be appropriate for all situations or objectives. Readers and listeners should seek professional advice, make independent investigations and assessments before investing. MSE does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of its content and should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions. MSE and its owner may hold financial interests in the companies discussed and can trade such securities without notice. MSE is biased towards its advertising sponsors which make this platform possible. MSE is not liable for representations, warranties, or omissions in its content. By accessing MSE content, users agree that MSE and its affiliates bear no liability related to the information provided or the investment decisions you make. Full disclaimer: https://www.miningstockeducation.com/disclaimer/

The road to Sorare 27 is officially here, but a major question mark is hanging over the market: Will the platform's biggest spenders actually buy in again? In today's episode of Sorare with Laird, I'm joined by  @HarryTrades  to tackle the reality that many high-volume, high-spend managers are considering pulling back their budgets for the upcoming 2026/27 transition. In this livestream, we discuss:• The Probability of a Spend Strike: Why "whales" and high-budget managers are hesitating on Sorare 27.• The Market Ripple Effects: What happens to gallery values, liquidity, and card utility if the top end of the market stops buying?• The Catalyst for Change: The specific structural, competition, and reward issues driving this sentiment. • How Sorare Fixes This: What the product team needs to do right now to win back the confidence of higher spenders.Drop your thoughts in the live chat—are you planning to spend more, less, or the same for Sorare 27?Support the content by joining the Laird Social Club on Patreon: https://patreon.com/andrewmlairdJoin the Harry Trades YouTube community: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC8HSj8vZDHSGmk5yP46SjtQ/membership⚽️ Become a Sorare manager today: https://sorare.pxf.io/WyLBnZ

Bookwaves/Artwaves presents in-depth interviews with authors of fiction and narrative non-fiction, delving deeply into political and social issues, literary technique, and the life of the author, along with interviews devoted to theatre and film, and archive interviews from Bookwaves and Probabilities. Hosted by Richard Wolinsky. The post Bookwaves/Artwaves – May 14, 2026 appeared first on KPFA.

The Parent Playbook: Navigating the "Sideline Culture" https://teachhoops.com/ In a 30-year coaching career, you learn that you aren't just coaching the 15 players on your roster; you are managing a 45-person ecosystem that includes parents, guardians, and extended "inner circles." Navigating parent behaviors is less about "conflict resolution" and more about Environmental Design. Most parent friction occurs in the Information Vacuum—the space between what you see in the gym every day and what the parent hopes for at the dinner table. To build a championship culture, you must be the Chief Transparency Officer, ensuring that the "Standard" is so clearly communicated that there is no room for a counter-narrative to grow. The greatest tool in your belt is the Mandatory Buffer. Emotions are highest in the 15 minutes following a tough loss. The Standard: No parent-coach communication regarding game strategy or playing time until 24 hours have passed. The Protocol: Require that all concerns be addressed via a scheduled meeting rather than a "sideline ambush." This moves the conversation from the emotional (the heat of the game) to the logical (the film and the data). As we often discuss in the world of analytics, "The numbers don't have feelings." When a parent challenges playing time, move the conversation away from "opinion" and toward Objective Efficiency. The "Truth Room" Metrics: If a player is struggling with their Effective Field Goal Percentage ($eFG%$) or has a high turnover rate in transition, show the data. The Probability of Success: Use the stats to explain the "Why." For example: "Our team's defensive rating improves by $12%$ when we have this specific rotation on the floor." It is very difficult to argue with a $95%$ confidence interval. Parent anxiety usually stems from a lack of Role Definition. If a player thinks they are a "Green Light" shooter but the coach sees them as a "Defensive Specialist," the parent is caught in the middle. The Solution: Conduct mid-season "Role Reviews." Give the player (and by extension, the parent) a clear list of the three things they must do to earn more minutes. The Transformation: You shift the parent from being a "Critic" of your decisions to being a "Partner" in their child's development. They now know exactly what "success" looks like in your system. You cannot coach a kid hard if you haven't made a deposit into their parent's Trust Account. The Strategy: Make it a point to send a "Positive Pulse" text or email to a parent when their child does something that doesn't show up in the box score—diving for a loose ball, cheering for a teammate, or showing "Next Play" speed after an error. The Impact: When you eventually have to have a "Hard Truth" conversation about playing time, the parent listens because they know you see the whole child, not just the stat line. Navigating parent behaviors in sports, basketball coaching communication, parent-coach partnership, team culture, high school basketball, youth sports leadership, "The Villanova Way," Jay Wright coaching, basketball analytics, $eFG%$, role clarity in basketball, athletic leadership, program building, coach development, mental toughness, leadership standards, coach unplugged, teach hoops. Show Notes1. The "24-Hour Rule" and the Communication Protocol2. Using Data as a Shield3. The "Role Clarity" AuditThe Behavior Matrix: Challenge vs. StrategyParent BehaviorThe "Root Cause"The Collaborative FixThe "Sideline Coach"Lack of trust in the system.Invite them to a "Open Practice" to see the tactical "Why."The "Minutes Counter"Focus on individual vs. team.Share the $VORP$ (Value Over Replacement) data in private.The "Silent Sulker"Perceived disrespect to the child.The "Active Reach"—spend 2 minutes talking about non-hoops life.The "Culture Leader"High buy-in and energy.Empower them to lead the "Parent Council" or team meals.4. The "Relational Capital" DepositSEO Keywords Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

May 4, 2026 - Season 16, Episode 131 of The Terrible Podcast is now in the can. In this Monday morning show, Alex Kozora and I get right into discussing the expectations for the annual releasing of the regular season schedule and how we might be waiting two more weeks for that event to transpire. Alex has recently completed profiles on two of the undrafted free agents recently signed by the Pittsburgh Steelers, K Laith Marjan and DT Kevin Jobity Jr., so on the heels of those being published, we discuss what he learned about both players. Now that we have fully looked at and learned a lot about each of the members of the Steelers 2026 draft class, Alex and I give our expectations for each player when it comes to their rookie seasons. We spend a lot of time talking about QB Drew Allar and KR/WR Kaden Wetjen during this segment as well. With there being a lot of talk right now about the Steelers potentially signing OLB Nick Herbig to a contract extension this offseason, Alex and I discuss how it might be in his best interest to bet on himself in 2026. We look at a few comparable players and contracts related to Herbig at this point in the offseason as we attempt to find a target market price for him that he and the Steelers might be willing to move forward with in the coming weeks and months. This 113-minute episode also discusses several other minor topics not noted in the recap above and we end this show by answering a few emails we have received from listeners. steelersdepot.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ian Watson. Photo: Glenn Hall. Wikipedia Commons Ian Watson (1943-2026), unconventional British science fiction and fantasy writer, who died on April 13, 2026 at the age of 82, in conversation with Richard Wolinsky and Richard A. Lupoff for the Probabilities radio program, recorded in Oakland at Westercon 40 on July 2, 1987. Ian Watson (1943-2026) who died on April 13, 2026 at the age of 82, was an unconventional author whose works brimmed with ideas and philosophical turnings. Author of over thirty one novels, not including several written in the world created by the Warhammer 40,000 game, there were also eleven collections of short stories, plus a catalogue of poems. An avowed socialist, he also stood in elections as a Labour Party candidate in the days before Tony Blair. His novel, The Power, discussed in the interview, was published later in 1987, and can now be found, along with many of his novels, as Kindle book through Amazon. In early 1990, Ian Watson received a call from the assistant to legendary film-maker Stanley Kubrick to work on a science fiction film based on a story about a robot boy written by Brian Aldiss. For the next several months, he and Kubrick hammered out a screenplay treatment until Kubrick, in December of that year, said it was what he wanted, barring some changes, but shortly thereafter began work on what would be his final film, Eyes Wide Shut. Kubrick died on March f7, 1999 at the age of seventy. Shortly afterward, Steven Spielberg, using Watson's treatment, wrote a screenplay which became his film, A.I. Artificial Intelligence. You can find Ian Watson's essay about his work with Kubrick by going to this link. This interview was digitized, remastered and edited on May 2, 2026. Sound quality (speed) is variable. The post Probabilities Archive: Ian Watson (1943-2026), Surrealist British Science Fiction Author appeared first on KPFA.

Most “intent signals” don't predict real buying behavior. Here's why AI-driven GTM now depends on behavioral context - and how Buyer Probability is changing everything. To learn more, visit https://www.lift-ai.com/ Lift AI City: San Francisco Address: One Sansome Street Website: https://lift-ai.com Email: dsimpson@lift-ai.com

In this creative and adventure-filled episode of The Tiberius Show, we're joined by Brian Hazzard, founder of Wandering Pine Press and a tabletop role-playing game designer who traded a high-paying tech career to build worlds, tell stories, and bring imagination to life. Brian shares how RPGs work, what it's like designing games for thousands of players, and how creativity, storytelling, and even probability all come together to create unforgettable experiences. Whether you love games, storytelling, or dream of building your own worlds—this episode is packed with inspiration.Discussion Points●    What is a TTRPG?: How tabletop role-playing games work and why they're all about storytelling and imagination.●    Game Designer Role: What Brian actually does when creating immersive worlds and systems.●    From Tech to Creativity: Why he left a six-figure tech career to follow his passion.●    Kickstarter Success: What it felt like launching his first game and gaining support from fans.●    Creativity & Inspiration: Why “ripping off ideas” can actually lead to originality.●    Story vs Mechanics: How he balances rules and storytelling when designing games.●    Beginner vs Expert Players: Why short campaigns and narrative depth matter more than complex systems.●    Family & Business: Building a company with his wife and balancing creativity with practicality.●    RV Lifestyle: Preparing for a life of travel while continuing to design games on the road.●    Advice for Creators: Why starting small and finishing projects is the key to success.●    Probability in Games: How math helps balance gameplay and create exciting challenges.●    Integrity & Lessons Learned: Real-life mistakes, honesty, and how they shape personal growth.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-tiberius-show--3352195/support.

Ethan and Matt L join me as we recap the Cheesehead Championship and talk about that no matter how good of a player you are, your dice control your fate.

A Google Research blog post warns that future Quantum Computers (CRQCs) could break Bitcoin's encryption, with updated estimates suggesting under 500,000 physical qubits could steal funds during transaction confirmations (roughly 9 minutes).Guest: Charles Hoskinson - CEO & Founder of Input OutputFollow Charles on X ➜ https://x.com/IOHK_Charles00:00 Intro00:10 Google scares everyone00:40 Justin Drake: 2032 roadmap needs to accelerate01:45 We took down Youtube video too02:00 How real is quantum threat?05:15 What blockchains are leading?07:00 Thoughts on eCash Hard Fork?09:40 Probability of Hard Fork?11:30 Midnight/Cardano saving Bitcoin?13:40 Enabling “Accredited Investor” rules?16:40 Canton vs Midnight19:40 Why not list Monument on RWA website?22:40 CLARITY Act odds: new red line?27:00 CLARITY Act endorse w/o reading it?30:00 Lazarus vs Quantum30:20 BTC Soft fork?30:45 Microstrategy Conspiracy31:00 KelpDAO vs Bridge sentiment31:40 Banks response to CLARITY32:15 XRP token utility22:45 Canton grift keeps giving?34:00 Proof-of-Stake vs Proof of Work35:00 Polymarket vs X35:30 USDCx Bridge Trustable?36:45 $SNEK on Solana & ETH?37:20 Tokenized stocks on cardano?38:00 Point-of-Sale failure?40:20 Canton Hack vs DeFi United?#Crypto #bitcoin #cardano~Bitcoin Quantum Threat Accelerates!

Episode: 1564 The Second Law of Thermodynamics and time's arrow.  Today, we see why time goes only from then to now.

Darshan H. Brahmbhatt, Podcast Editor of JACC: Advances, discusses a recently published original research paper on Development of a Predictive Tool in Patients With High Pretest Probability for Transthyretin Amyloid Cardiomyopathy.

Get access to the 2026 NFL Draft/Rookie Guide for FREE from Chad Parsons (and a VIP Chat with the best dynasty owners on the planet) by signing up as an All-Pro at www.Patreon.com/UTH. Thanks for listening, and keep building those dynasties! Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Our guest on the podcast today is retirement researcher Wade Pfau. Wade is the founder of Retirement Researcher, an educational resource on retirement planning for individuals and financial advisors. He's co-founder of the Retirement Income Style Awareness Tool and a co-host of the Retire With Style podcast. He's a professor of practice at the American College of Financial Services and a research fellow with the Limra Retirement Income Institute. And he's also a principal and director of retirement research for McLean Asset Management. Wade has written several books, including his most recent, a third edition of his Retirement Planning Guidebook. He holds a doctorate in economics and a master's degree from Princeton University and Bachelor of Arts and Bachelor of Science degrees from the University of Iowa. He's also a chartered financial analyst. Episode Highlights 00:00:00 Updates to the Retirement Planning Guidebook 00:00:29 Do Retirees Today Have a Stronger Starting Spending Rate? 00:04:03 Asset Allocation, Annuities, and Target-Date Funds 00:08:11 Retirement Income Styles 00:15:07 Non-US Safe Withdrawal Rates and Flexible Spending Strategies 00:23:55 Probability of Success and Estimating Longevity 00:27:47 Underspending, Organic Income, and Mortgage Payoff 00:35:46 Exploring the Retirement Risk Zone 00:39:20 Equity Glide Paths, Sequence Risk, and Delaying Social Security 00:46:43 Annuities: Private Equity Concerns and Due Diligence More Retirement Research From Wade Pfau Exploring the Retirement Risk Zone Reducing Retirement Risk with a Rising Equity Glide Path More From Morningstar What's Your Retirement Income Style? 8 Reasons You Might Need to Tweak Your Portfolio Wade Pfau: The Risks of Retirement Today If you have a comment or a guest idea, please email us at TheLongView@Morningstar.com. Follow Christine Benz (@christine_benz) and Ben Johnson (@MstarBenJohnson) on X, and Christine Benz, Amy Arnott, and Ben Johnson on LinkedIn. Visit Morningstar.com for new research and insights from Christine, Ben, and Amy. Subscribe to Christine's weekly newsletter, Improving Your Finances. If you want more Morningstar podcasts, check out The Morning Filter and Investing Insights. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Click here to Shop Affirmation Decks, Oracle Decks, and more! Use Promo code: RCPODCAST20 for 20% off your first order!   Today's Power Affirmation: I believe in miracles because I am a miracle.   Today's Oracle of Motivation: Some smart people with dope computers estimate more stars are visible from Earth with super telescopes than there are grains of sand on the Earth. Another smart dude, Dr. Ali Binazir, estimates that your being birthed from your parents and existing as you are today is "the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with a trillion-sided dice. They each roll the die, and they all come up with the same number, for example, 550,343,279,001." Faith is the part of you that dares to believe in miracles, and since you are a miracle, dare to believe in yourself - 'k?   Designed to Motivate Your Creative Maniac Mind The 60-Second Power Affirmations Podcast is designed to help you focus, affirm your visions, and harness the power within your creative maniac mind! Join us daily for a new 60-second power affirmation followed by a blast of oracle motivation from the Universe (+ a quick breathing meditation). It's time to take off your procrastination diaper and share your musings with the world!   For more musings, visit RageCreate.com     Leave a Review & Share! Apple Podcast reviews are one of THE most important factors for podcasts. If you enjoy the show, please take a second to leave the show a review on Apple Podcasts! Click this link: Leave a review on Apple Podcasts Hit “Listen on Apple Podcasts” on the left-hand side under the picture. Scroll down under “Ratings & Reviews” & click “Write A Review” Leave an honest review. You're awesome!  

Watch every episode ad-free & uncensored on Patreon: https://patreon.com/dannyjones Kris Millegan is an independent researcher, publisher & founder of TrineDay. Millegan's work focuses on secret societies, deep politics, intelligence agencies, occult symbolism, and the long shadow of covert state power. SPONSORS https://capl.onelink.me/vFut/zralgyl0 - Download Cash App Today. https://amentara.com/go/dj - Use code DJ22 for 22% off. https://gld.com - Use code DANNYJONES for 50% 0ff. https://butcherbox.com/danny - Get chicken breast or top sirloin for a year OR ground beef for life, PLUS $20 off. https://whiterabbitenergy.com/?ref=DJP - Use code DJP for 20% off EPISODE LINKS https://trineday.com FOLLOW DANNY JONES https://www.instagram.com/dannyjones https://twitter.com/jonesdanny OUTLINE 00:00 - Vietnam war was about drugs 02:13 - Kris' dad's career in the CIA 08:25 - CIA secret Kris' dad kept for 10 years 13:13 - Secret societies that run the world 19:44 - Skull & Bones secret society 23:25 - World's top secret societies 24:31 - The origin of the Illuminati in America 27:12 - How the opium trade fuels secret societies 32:12 - People are learning how the world really works 33:46 - How secret societies rule the world 36:35 - Cold fusion mini-nukes 42:53 - The tri-lateral commission 46:51 - Mass trauma rituals & death magic 51:52 - Failsafe devices of humanity 54:26 - How baby boomers were brainwashed 01:01:38 - Why they created internet & personal computers 01:05:17 - Americans should unite against the Epstein class 01:12:10 - How Nixon got into power 01:16:58 - The JFK assassination script 01:22:02 - Government mind control (Operation Bluebird) 01:27:43 - CIA's child mind control victims speak out 01:34:14 - Football as a front for mind control 01:38:43 - 9/11 01:45:53 - How Epstein ran a honey trap 01:49:14 - How to restore our government 01:53:23 - Science experiments done on Epstein's victims 02:01:48 - Probability of aliens & what they are 02:07:26 - The Epstein victims' painting 02:13:06 - Why we maybe didn't go to the moon 02:16:36 - The Pax Judaica end times theory 02:20:27 - The Chabad-Lubavitch society 02:23:47 - Why we don't have honest elections 02:28:40 - Secret societies that rule over nation states 02:35:36 - "We the people" should be in charge Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Watch every episode ad-free & uncensored on Patreon: https://patreon.com/dannyjones Glenn Greenwald is a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist who famously published the Edward Snowden files. He hosts the System Update podcast & his work can be found at https://greenwald.substack.com SPONSORS https://amentara.com/go/dj - Use code DJ22 for 22% off. https://mengotomars.com - Use code DANNY for 50% Off & 3 Free Gifts. https://fastgrowingtrees.com - Use code DANNY for 20% off. https://whiterabbitenergy.com/?ref=DJP - Use code DJP for 20% off. EPISODE LINKS https://greenwald.substack.com @GlennGreenwald https://x.com/ggreenwald FOLLOW DANNY JONES https://www.instagram.com/dannyjones https://twitter.com/jonesdanny OUTLINE 00:00 - Joe Kent 06:04 - What happens after 7+ years in the CIA 09:05 - What Trump & Obama have in common 16:06 - Insider trading from Trump's circle 19:33 - Why Trump went silent on Israel & Epstein 22:35 - The most important part of the Epstein story 28:19 - Where Epstein got his money 33:12 - Hyper-normalization 36:39 - Howard Lutnick's relationship with Epstein 40:57 - "Left" and "right" is a psyop 48:54 - Israel's PR looks like panic 51:13 - Why all politicians become pro-Israel 56:05 - Most understated story of the year 59:20 - How Israel became so powerful 01:02:08 - Free speech suppression is changing 01:08:07 - New law in Australia is CRUSHING free speech 01:10:51 - The IHRA 01:16:51 - It's ILLEGAL to protest Israel in America 01:22:03 - The origin of Israel's hooks in America 01:28:51 - Will Tucker Carlson be the next US president? 01:34:41 - What if JD Vance speaks out against Trump 01:40:02 - Pete Hegseth & Biblical justifications for Iran war 01:43:34 - Islam in America 01:48:08 - Zorhan Mandani 01:51:57 - Special Forces will soon start moving into Kharg Island 01:59:46 - OInly argument for the war on Iran 02:03:50 - Probability of nuclear warfare 02:09:30 - The Epstein depositions 02:14:28 - How does Howard Lutnick still have a job 02:18:31 - 9/11 shadow commission 02:25:23 - What the "new" JFK files said 02:28:22 - How Glenn got involved with Edward Snowden 02:36:55 - Meeting Edward Snowden the first time 02:47:22 - Reaction to breaking the Edward Snowden story 02:51:20 - Edward Snowden could be pardoned Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Renato Renner (ETH Zurich) proves quantum mechanics contains logical contradictions that undermine its foundations.Quantum theory may be the most successful theory in history — and Renato Renner has proved it can't consistently describe itself. This is not a philosophical objection. It's a theorem. From there it spirals into black holes, reference frames, and why some of his students refused to continue working on the subject. This one is a quiet storm, blending the foundations of physics with something uncomfortably personal: the question of what you are. TIMESTAMPS: - 00:00:00 - Quantum Theory's Internal Contradiction - 00:05:51 - Recursive Consistency Checks - 00:11:00 - Wigner's Friend Paradox - 00:18:11 - Global vs. Local Inconsistency - 00:25:04 - The Inhabitant's Perspective - 00:31:12 - Modeling Multi-Agent Reasoning - 00:44:25 - Three Fundamental Assumptions - 00:56:36 - Quantum Reference Frames - 01:06:14 - Black Hole Information Paradox - 01:15:06 - Operationalizing Hawking Radiation - 01:24:48 - Realizability of Thought Experiments - 01:41:16 - Emotional Physics: Many Worlds - 01:50:03 - The Limits of Probability - 02:01:06 - Operationalizing the Measurement Problem - 02:15:41 - Generalized Probabilistic Theories - 02:29:16 - Quantum-Gravity Correspondence - 02:40:10 - The Source of Disagreement - 02:56:54 - Physics as Communication LINKS MENTIONED: - Renato's Papers: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=OEBtlWgAAAAJ - Renato's Lecture at Helgoland [Lecture]: https://youtu.be/NxIyldEZzZI - Against Probability [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.18872 - Testing Quantum Theory with Thought Experiments [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.05314 - Quantum Advantage in Cryptography [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.04078 - Quantum Theory Cannot Consistently Describe the Use of Itself [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.07422 - Security of Quantum Key Distribution [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0512258 - Thought Experiments in a Quantum Computer [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.06236 - The Black Hole Information Puzzle [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.14653 - Quanundrum Software: https://github.com/jangnur/Quanundrum - Wigner's Friend: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wigner's_friend - Reimagining of Schrödinger's Cat [Article]: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/reimagining-of-schroedingers-cat-breaks-quantum-mechanics-mdash-and-stumps-physicists1/ - Collapse Theory [Paper]: http://www.psiquadrat.de/downloads/grw86.pdf - Entropy of Hawking Radiation [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.06872 - QBism [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/1003.5209 - Respecting One's Fellow [Paper]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.03572 - Why Do Humans Reason? [Paper]: https://www.dan.sperber.fr/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/MercierSperberWhydohumansreason.pdf - Quantum Mechanical Rules for Observed Observers [Paper]: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-47170-2 - Game Theory [Book]: https://amazon.com/dp/0262061414?tag=toe08-20 - Tim Maudlin [TOE]: https://youtu.be/fU1bs5o3nss - Jacob Barandes [TOE]: https://youtu.be/gEK4-XtMwro - Sean Carroll [TOE]: https://youtu.be/9AoRxtYZrZo - David Wallace [TOE]: https://youtu.be/4MjNuJK5RzM - David Bessis [TOE]: https://youtu.be/GHGi_XDqKNw More links at https://curtjaimungal.substack.com Guests do not pay to appear. #science Theories of Everything with Curt Jaimungal features long-form, technically detailed interviews with leading researchers in physics, mathematics, consciousness, and philosophy, exploring topics at the level of active research. For academics, graduate students, and anyone seeking depth beyond popular science. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hostilities with Iran are entering their second month, and the damage to financial markets and the economy is mounting. The Inside Economics team and colleague, Shandor Whitcher, take up the question of what it all means for the prospects of recession. Shandor tells us about his prescient random forest model of the probability of recession starting in the next year, and it's not encouraging. Odds are still less than half, but not by much, and the direction of travel is disconcerting. Guest: Shandor Whitcher Participate in the weekly Survey of Business Confidence: https://www.economy.com/business-confidence/participate/ Email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com for more info about the Moody's Summit '26 Conference in San Diego Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode,  I talk about increasing the probability of success.

Where did probability come from? In this episode, Brad Harris explores how the invention of probability reshaped humanity's relationship with uncertainty—and why artificial intelligence (AI) ultimately runs on the same mathematics of prediction. For most of human history, the future was not something people tried to calculate. It was fate, providence, or the will of the gods. Then in the summer of 1654, two French mathematicians—Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat—began exchanging letters about a gambling problem. From that correspondence emerged one of the most powerful ideas in human history: probability. Once uncertainty could be quantified, the consequences were enormous. Insurance markets became possible. Medical treatments could be tested through clinical trials. Governments began measuring populations statistically. Engineers could calculate risk and safety margins. Modern science itself increasingly relied on statistical reasoning. But the story doesn't end there. Today, the same probabilistic thinking underlies the most powerful technology ever created: artificial intelligence. Large language models like ChatGPT are fundamentally prediction engines—systems trained to calculate what words are most likely to come next. From ancient gambling games to modern AI, this episode explores how the invention of probability transformed the modern world—and why we are now living inside the most powerful prediction machines ever built. If you like Context with Brad Harris, you can help keep the show going and access bonus episodes through Patreon or by subscribing through Apple Podcasts or Spotify.  Find Brad Harris on X @bradcoleharris

In this podcast episode, Dr. Jonathan H. Westover talks with Paul Falcone about recruiting and interviewing in a tight labor market and how to identify 'high-probability' hires. Paul Falcone is a renowned expert on effective hiring, performance management, and leadership development, specializing in helping companies build higher performing leadership teams. He spent the last three decades in human resources executive roles at organizations including Nickelodeon, Paramount Pictures, NBCUniversal, Time Warner, and City of Hope Cancer Center Hospital. Check out all of the podcasts in the HCI Podcast Network!