Podcasts about Probability

24. November 1997: Einige Monate nach der Enthüllung Bashirs als genetisch Manipulierter hat sich der Stationsdoktor wieder gut integriert, doch nun besuchen ihn in Form von Lauren, Jack, Sarina und Patrick vier, die zwar seine Herkunft teilen, aber in einem Institut interniert wurden. Erst ist Julian abgetörnt, doch der laufende Dominion-Krieg fasziniert die Inselbegabten, so dass es den schlafenden Tiger Khan in ihm weckt. In Deutschland: Statistische Wahrscheinlichkeiten, ausgestrahlt am 4. Juli 1998.

00:00 – Intro: AI-Designed Viruses and the Stanford Breakthrough02:10 – The Dual-Use Dilemma & Biosecurity Frontiers04:15 – Recreating Pathogens: Horse Pox & Smallpox Precedents06:25 – Anthropic Report: AI Exploits and Bioweapon Risks08:38 – Gain of Function, Geopolitics, and Asymmetric Threats11:35 – Interview Begins: Kevin Esvelt on CRISPR Gene Drives14:00 – The Inventor's Dilemma & Countering Gene Drives17:10 – Eradicating Malaria vs. Regulatory Challenges19:07 – Analyzing the Stanford Bacteriophage Experiment22:38 – The Threat of Limitless AI-Generated Pandemic Variants24:14 – Ordering 1918 Flu DNA: Testing Gene Synthesis Screening30:26 – Regulatory Loopholes in Select Agent Screening33:35 – Legislative Solutions & DNA Fragment Oversight35:50 – Designing Competent Bioweapons vs. Natural Pathogens38:28 – State Actors, Biopreparat, and "Dead Hand" Switches42:30 – Targeted Pathogens & The Probability of AI/Bio Catastrophe (p(doom))47:20 – Biodefense Solutions: PPE, Hadrien Project, and Critical Infrastructure51:24 – Far-UVC Lighting & Glycol Misting to End Airborne Disease57:42 – Closing Thoughts & Where to Find Kevin Esvelt's Work

Marcus Thompson joins the show to preview the 49ers Week 2 matchup against the Dolphins and if it really is a trap game. He also touches on Steph Curry's future with the Warriors. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Marcus Thompson joins the show to preview the 49ers Week 2 matchup against the Dolphins and if it really is a trap game. He also touches on Steph Curry's future with the Warriors. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Brought to you by the English Programme. Featuring news, politics, popular culture, celebrity trivia, quizzes, book readings, and a whole host of fun.Support Our Rescue Cats | Our Blog | Get New Episodes By Email | Rumble | X | YouTube | NewsK365 on Spreaker | Get New Blog Posts By Email | Throne Wishlist |

In today's episode on Why "I Love to Work" Might Be a Lie You're Telling Yourself, Erin Bradley shares: A Friday morning rant, short and sweet: the "I love to work" defense, and the difference between being a creative, energetic person who's excited about their work… and jumping up from the dinner table every time the phone buzzes Why negotiating deals from a hospital bed or a so-called vacation isn't love of work, in Erin's words: "I'm calling BS," because what that really is, is a lack of a plan, a lack of systems, and a lack of support The outdated program of uncertainty and fear we all adopt the moment we go 100% commission, and why it keeps running the show even AFTER you have all the evidence that you're good at this "Things are going really well, but…" and the reminder: whatever follows but is fear (don't be a butthead - don't let fear drive the bus) Erin's own story: taking calls from the hospital room while delivering her first child, barely taking a maternity leave 16 years ago, and the 2012 burnout that forced her first real break Why so many of Erin's early decisions were born out of desperation, and how you don't have to wait until you're desperate: you can listen to the whisper before it becomes a roar The gentle questions that dismantle the old belief system: Do I really like doing business this way? Do I want to be doing this 5 years from now? What about 6 months from now? Probability vs. possibility: the mind operates from probability (inherently limited), the heart taps into possibility, and possibility is born out of curiosity The client story: why "triple your old income with your eyes closed" still came with a cringe, and the story underneath ($500K means losing the joy) that had to be unpacked BEFORE the action plan The company owner who said his team "just needs to be told what to do" and why that never works: there's no shortage of action plans, there's a block underneath Be careful what you're admiring: some top producers are in tears behind closed doors; admire the sense of ease, the ability to take time off without guilt, the full presence Chapter 2 meets Chapter 10: borrowing belief from people who remind you of your future, so you skip years of trial and error Enough Already, Erin's 8-day autumn reset (September 21-30): dismantle the old beliefs, reprogram them, and build the action plan FROM the up-leveled identity, with guest coaches Nicole Mangina, Rebecca Green, and Sarah Walton Harvest season wisdom: it's not about planting more seeds, it's about pruning what's stealing resources from what you're trying to grow The bottom line: your income is the byproduct of your impact, and you cannot create impact from a depleted battery About Erin Bradley Erin Bradley is a speaker and business coach, bestselling author, and host of the real estate podcast Pursuing Freedom. As a mortgage lender, Erin learned the hard way just how hard entrepreneurship and success in sales can be. From flat broke to 6 figures, and then to burnout, Erin and her team have been through it all! Erin operates under the mindset that you never give up, and you never settle, in life or in business. Anything is possible when you have the right mindset, great systems, and an amazing team. Erin is passionate about helping others design their ideal life, then create a business that is a vehicle to support that lifestyle, rather than rob you of it. And she's on a mission to help you believe in, and achieve your biggest dreams! How to Connect With Erin Bradley Business Facebook Page: https://www.facebook.com/PursuingFreedomOfficial Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/pursuingfreedomofficial/ LinkedIn Page: https://www.linkedin.com/in/erin-bradley/ Recommended Resources Enough Already - Erin's 8-Day Autumn Reset (STARTS MONDAY, September 21 at 11am MT, runs through September 30): live daily calls (Mon-Fri, then Mon-Wed), ~30 minutes of teaching plus workshopping ("GSD calls") and Q&A, with guest coaches Nicole Mangina, Rebecca Green, and Sarah Walton, plus a private podcast feed of every replay. Join now for $108 at https://pursuingfreedom.com/enough - and if you're hearing this after September 21, DM Erin on Instagram (@pursuingfreedomofficial) for replay access. The Pursuing Freedom Collective: https://pursuingfreedom.com/collective The Freedom Audit (free download): https://pursuingfreedom.com/freedom Happiness & Fulfillment Assessment: https://pursuingfreedom.com/happiness Get a copy of Pursuing Freedom on Amazon: https://amzn.to/46o7m7z Subscribe to the Pursuing Freedom podcast on Apple Podcasts (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pursuing-freedom/id1385086390) or Spotify (https://open.spotify.com/show/59YFf0QJ64o35Wc53JGcbi) for weekly inspiration and strategies.

Presented by Lauren Stibgen You truly can't take it with you. I am sure you have heard this statement before, but do you live it? Let's face it, no amount of accumulation of things, titles, or achievements here on earth can be taken to your heavenly home. How much are you thinking about the past and about the future rather than focusing on just this moment? All this overthinking can lead to feelings of an out-of-balance life and will steal the joy from the moment you are in. This mindset can be difficult. With the ever-present noise and connectivity of our culture, how can you refocus on the present? Job 33:4 reminds us: The Spirit of God has made us, and the breath of the Almighty gives us life. Pause a moment and think about the wonder of your life, and who gives it to you. Do you wake up each day with gratitude for the wonder of the breath in your lungs? Think about this­—you do not have any control of your breath. You can't earn your breath. You can't work for your breath. It is a gift that powers your body, which is equally wonderful. If you like scientific variables, a statistical analysis performed on the probability of your unique individual self being born is calculated as 1 in 400 trillion. (Ali Binazir[1]) While I am not a proponent of measuring what God creates, this human statistical analysis gives you an idea of how amazing you are! I can hear you almost saying to me, but Lauren the moment I am in right now it isn't filled with joy or peace or happiness! Understandably, if you are in a season of unexpected loss of a loved one, illness, job loss, you probably want to know when you will move past this time. This is why I have brought the focus down to the gift and wonder your life is! Finding gratitude and a moment of centering on this can help you truly know that God created you for a reason. He created you as a one of one. And, as a follower of Jesus Christ, he chose you as part of his royal family. Pray: God, thank you for the breath in my lungs! Thank you for creating me in your image and loving me so much that I know Jesus Christ as my Savior. I am thankful to be part of your royal family, and I rest in this today. So many things can bring our lives out of balance, but God can help root us in his truths that bring us peace. [1] Binazir, Dr Ali. “Are You a Miracle? On the Probability of You Being Born,” Huffpost, August 16, 2011

In this episode, Conor and Bryce continue their chat with Mark Saroufim about autoresearch, productionizing AI-generated GPU kernels, GPU MODE, books, video games and more!Link to Episode 304 on WebsiteDiscuss this episode, leave a comment, or ask a question (on GitHub)SocialsADSP: The Podcast: TwitterConor Hoekstra: LinkTree / BioBryce Adelstein Lelbach: Twitter | BlueSkyAbout the Guest:Mark Saroufim is a cofounder at Core Automation, PyTorch maintainer and cofounder of GPU MODE.Show NotesDate Recorded: 2026-07-20Date Released: 2026-09-18Core AutomationGPU MODEPyTorchADSP Episode 294: HistocacheCUB LibraryQR GPU MODE ProblemModalGPU MODE Lecture 108: One Layer Deeper competitiononelayerdeeper.aiThe Peterman PodBoris Cherny (Creator of Claude Code) On What Grew His Career And Building at Anthropic (Peterman Pod)Permutation City by Greg EganA Fire Upon the Deep by Vernor VingeMark's BookshelfMark's Top 10 BooksJourney to the AntsVisual Group TheoryThe Theory of FunWorking with Legacy CodeThe Structure and Interpretation of Classical MechanicsGame Theoretic Foundations for Probability and FinanceNVFP4 GPU MODE Problemlaplace-torchIntro Song InfoMiss You by Sarah Jansen https://soundcloud.com/sarahjansenmusicCreative Commons — Attribution 3.0 Unported — CC BY 3.0Free Download / Stream: http://bit.ly/l-miss-youMusic promoted by Audio Library https://youtu.be/iYYxnasvfx8

Ben? Out on a school night?!  Shout out one of our old school saints! Probability, abstraction, statistics, and the stories we tell. What is true? *** Topic - Do statistics tell a truer story than our brains? From - St. Jaysopher *** Submit Your Topic - Get A Free Shirt - ignorantanduninformed@gmail.com

In this lecture, we introduce the measure-theoretic concept of a random variable (which is neither random nor a variable) and related terms, such as outcomes, events, probability measures, moments, means, etc. Throughout the lecture, we use the metaphor of probability as mass (and thus probability density as mass density, and a mean as a center of mass). This allows us to discuss the "statistical leverage" of outliers in a distribution (i.e., although they happen infrequently, they still have the ability to shift the mean significantly, as in physical leverage). This sets us up to talk about random processes and particular random variables in the next lecture.Concept Explorers linked from this lecture:Concept Explorer: Pseudo-Random Number Generators and AI WatermarkingConcept Explorer: Monte Carlo Examples for Stochastic ModelingConcept Explorer: Input Modeling (fully functional Input Analyzer)Concept Explorer: Probability Distributions for Input Modeling and Statistics

It’s the end of the world and we know it… CPI numbers – HOT – Markets think hit a top – or just options Friday? Sell Rosh Hashana and Buy Yom Kippur? Plenty of AI PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - Follow Up - I am the House! - 10YR shot above 5% on Monday - Follow Up 2 - Straight of Hormuz - NO Boats passing (can we please stick to the facts?) - CPI numbers - HOT - Markets think hit a top - Let's talk end of the works - Cyberdyne IRL Markets - 100% Probability of a rate hike this week - Sell Rosh Hashana, Buy Yom Kippur - HACK ETF - Cybersecurity name up 49% YTD DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com FED HIKE IS BACK - Fed meets Tuesday-Wednesday, with a 25 bp hike to 3.75%-4.00% now the dominant expectation. - 85% of economists surveyed expect a hike; futures moved to roughly 90% odds after the latest inflation data. - August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year; core rose 0.3% for the month and 2.4% annually. - Markets are increasingly pricing additional tightening beyond September rather than this being a one-and-done move. AND -> THE 5% TREASURY IS BACK - The 10-year Treasury yield briefly crossed 5% Monday for the first time since 2023. - Higher oil prices, hotter inflation, heavy bond supply and expectations for more Fed tightening are all pushing yields higher. - The move raises the hurdle rate for stocks while feeding directly into mortgages, corporate borrowing and other credit. - Bonds are becoming meaningful competition for equities again at a time when stock valuations remain elevated. SLOW DOWN THE AI - Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for deliberately slowing frontier-model advancement to create more time for safety controls. - Sam Altman and Elon Musk publicly backed the push for more caution; Microsoft separately released a draft AI code requiring models to remain under human control. - Microsoft says its models must accept shutdowns and corrections and should not be designed around claims of consciousness or legal rights. - The semiconductor index dropped more than 5% Monday; Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron and AMD were among the major casualties. DEEPSEEK CHANGES THE MEMORY MATH - DeepSeek's latest architecture sharply lowers the amount of memory required to run inference, including a major reduction in KV-cache requirements. - This is not simply HBM being replaced by SSD: the architecture reduces both high-speed memory and persistent-storage requirements per inference. - That complicates the straight-line thesis that every incremental AI token requires proportionally more HBM and storage. - Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix still benefit from enormous AI memory demand, but will efficiency gains become an important counterweight to unlimited-demand forecasts? V4V - What is it and how can you participate? TOKENS - A Quick Tutorial ORACLE SAYS THE AI SPENDING IS REAL - Oracle booked more than $30 billion of new AI cloud contracts during the quarter, taking total backlog to $664 billion. - Revenue rose 30% to $19.3 billion and adjusted EPS came in at $1.92 versus $1.74 expected. - Oracle spent $28.5 billion on capex, but about $11.36 billion was offset by customer prepayments. - Most new AI orders use prepayments, customer-owned hardware or similar arrangements, reducing the amount Oracle itself must finance. AI STOCKS MEET THEIR FIRST REAL NARRATIVE PROBLEM - The Philadelphia semiconductor index dropped roughly 5.4% Monday even though it remains up about 58% for the year. - Nvidia fell roughly 2.6%; Broadcom, Micron and AMD were each down around 4% during the session. - The new concern is not whether AI works, but whether safety restrictions could slow the pace of model releases and infrastructure spending. - Software names including Adobe, ServiceNow and Workday initially benefited as investors reconsidered how quickly AI might disrupt incumbent software. CHATGPT INVENTS THE WITNESSES - A New Mexico defense lawyer was fined $5,000 and held in contempt after submitting fabricated police testimony and nonexistent witnesses generated by ChatGPT. - The attorney had used ChatGPT to summarize trial proceedings and failed to verify the output before filing it with the court. - The appeal was reassigned to a public defender and the attorney was referred for further disciplinary review. - This goes beyond fake case citations: the system generated supposed factual evidence and attributed it to witnesses who did not exist. HUMANOID ROBOTS: FROM IPO MANIA TO THE BATTLEFIELD - China is researching humanoid robots for reconnaissance, logistics, hazardous missions and potentially urban combat. - Separately, Chinese regulators are tightening scrutiny of humanoid-robot IPOs after extreme volatility surrounding Unitree Robotics. - Unitree shares reportedly fell roughly 45% after initially increasing fivefold following its listing. - Hyundai-owned Boston Dynamics also said a 2027 IPO is unlikely; Hyundai wants production capacity of roughly 30,000 robots annually by 2028. CHINA GETS ACCUSED OF INDUSTRIAL-SCALE AI COPYING - U.S. officials accused six Chinese AI companies, including DeepSeek, Moonshot and Alibaba, of using U.S. models for large-scale distillation. - Distillation trains smaller models using outputs from more powerful models, dramatically reducing development cost and time. - U.S. officials said the activity targeted technology from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google and SpaceX. - China rejected the allegations and argued that distillation is a normal industry technique also used by American companies. OIL BACK ABOVE $100 - Brent traded around $107 Monday and WTI around $103 after fresh attacks on Saudi infrastructure and Middle East shipping. - Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was temporarily disabled, threatening a route capable of carrying roughly 4% of global crude supply. - Gulf states postponed planned talks with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz as regional tensions widened. - Physical crude prices are becoming highly location-dependent: barrels with secure export routes command major premiums while trapped grades trade at steep discounts. COPPER GOES VERTICAL - Copper has recently traded near record territory around $14,500-$14,700 per metric ton. - Tight mine supply is colliding with demand from electric grids, data centers, renewable power and other electrification projects. - Tariff uncertainty has also distorted flows as traders move available metal toward markets offering the highest prices. - Copper's surge makes proposed mining combinations such as Anglo American-Teck increasingly valuable; that roughly $54 billion deal is still awaiting Chinese regulatory approval. THE BIG MYSTERY BANK SANCTION - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. would sanction a large bank as part of increased financial pressure on Iran. - He initially declined to identify the bank or its country. - The campaign has already targeted oil, shipping, finance, aviation, weapons procurement and digital-asset channels connected to Iran. - The market question is whether secondary sanctions begin touching larger banks or companies outside Iran that facilitate trade. APPLE'S $1,999 FOLDING BET - Apple launched the iPhone Duo, its first folding iPhone, priced at $1,999. - It opens to a 7.6-inch display and represents one of Apple's biggest changes to the iPhone form factor in years. - The launch puts Apple directly into a market dominated by Samsung and Huawei and could help push foldables beyond their current niche. - It is also arriving during a severe memory-and-storage chip shortage that has already forced higher pricing elsewhere in Apple's product lineup. PRIVATE CREDIT REDEMPTION PRESSURE EASES - Investors in BlackRock's $23.1 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund requested withdrawals equal to about 11.5% of shares, down from 13.3% the prior quarter - BUT, is this just a rounding error? - The fund will repurchase only 5%, the normal quarterly limit, leaving some redemption requests unfilled. - Other BlackRock private-credit vehicles also showed lower withdrawal requests during the quarter. - Private-credit investors have been worried about lending standards and heavy exposure to software companies potentially disrupted by AI. DID WE DISCUSS >>> THE $50 BILLION DATA-CENTER IPO - SB Energy is reportedly seeking a valuation above $50 billion despite having no operational data centers. - It reported about $139 million of first-half revenue against a $3.21 billion net loss. - The company claims roughly $439 billion of project backlog. - OpenAI is an investor, warrant holder and major future customer; Nvidia is also providing capital while supplying the chips. - Soooooo...... No operating data centers, billions in losses and a possible $50 billion valuation. At least they remembered to build the valuation first.   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env: 'production', hosted_button_id: 'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src: 'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt: 'Donate with PayPal button', title: 'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!' } }).render('#donate-button-2'); THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SpaceX (SPCX) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Most traders believe success comes from predicting the market.Professional traders know that consistency comes from structure, not forecasts.In this episode of Talking Trading, Louise Bedford is joined by professional trader and trading coach Ross Maxwell to explain why high-probability trading has nothing to do with being right — and everything to do with risk, behaviour, and repeatable decision-making.Drawing on more than 20 years of experience across global markets, Ross breaks down how professional traders identify high-probability areas, manage risk before reward, and stay consistent without relying on opinions or predictions.You'll learn:Why prediction undermines trading consistencyWhat 'high probability' really means in professional tradingHow risk management creates clarity and confidenceWhy repetitive market behaviour matters more than forecastsThis episode is for traders who want fewer emotional swings, clearer decisions, and a more professional approach to trading the Australian and global sharemarkets.-------------------------------------Be the turning point...Think about the traders you know — maybe a friend, a colleague, or even your partner. They're stuck, they're guessing, and they're losing. You can be the turning point. Share Talking Trading with them now. Sometimes, one conversation or one idea is all it takes to flip their entire trading future.Show them how to subscribe at talkingtrading.com.au today. Louise Bedford is a best-selling author of six sharemarket books, host of the Talking Trading podcast, and founder of TradingGame.com.au, one of Australia's leading trading education communities.For over 30 years she has helped traders master trading the Australian sharemarket, technical analysis, and trading psychology so they can build long-term financial independence.www.tradinggame.com.au www.talkingtrading.com.au.FacebookYouTube TwitterLinkedIn

AI is getting so good at maths that it is now tackling, and apparently solving, some of the hardest mathematical problems that exist. But as huge companies like OpenAI and Anthropic race to outdo each other, human mathematicians are getting caught in the crossfire... and their field is changing forever. Jonathan Webb speaks to ABC AI Technology Reporter Cam Wilson about the furore over the Navier-Stokes equations and the million-dollar Millennium Prize.Featuring:Cam Wilson, AI Reporter at ABC.Professor Tristan Buckmaster, Mathematician at New York University.You can binge more episodes of the Lab Notes podcast with science editor and presenter Jonathan Webb on the ABC Listen app (Australia). You'll find episodes on animal behaviour, human health, space exploration and so much more.Get in touch with us: labnotes@abc.net.auThis episode of Lab Notes was produced on the lands of the Gadigal and Kaurna people.

Margaret Maron (1938-2021) in conversation with Richard Wolinsky and Richard A. Lupoff on the Probabilities radio program on KPFA, recorded June 6, 1994 while she was on tour for the third Deborah Knott mystery, Shooting at Loons. This is the third in a series of Sisters in Crime interviews conducted in the 1980s and 1990s for the Probabilities radio program on KPFA. Margaret Maron was the fourth president of the Sisters in Crime organization, following Dorothy Salisbury, Sara Paretsky and Nancy Pickard. This podcast was first posted on March 21, 2021. Margaret Maron died of a stroke on February 23, 2021 at the age of 82. At the time of her death she'd written twenty Judge Deborah Knott mysteries, nine Sigrid Harald mysteries, two other novels, and two collections of short stories. Along with writing about complex women characters, her books also focused on her native North Carolina, its life and its politics. Following the interview, her next book was in the Sigrid Harald series, Fugitive Colors, published in 1995. She stayed away from that series until 2017, when she wrote Take Out, which turned out to be her last novel. She won an Edgar Award for Best Novel in 1993 and for Best Short Story in 2002 and was named a Grandmaster by the Mystery Writers of America in 2013. After Shooting at Loons, she wrote seventeen more Deborah Knott novels. Also, over the course of her career, she became a major spokeswoman and advocate for the organization Sisters in Crime, and served as its first Vice President, and later its President.  Despite the success of her novels, to date none of her books or stories have been adapted for film or television, according to IMDb. The post Sisters in Crime: Margaret Maron (1938-2021), the Judge Deborah Knott and the Sigrid Harald series of mysteries, 1994 appeared first on KPFA.

On this episode Mark Simon is joined by Braves utility man Mauricio Dubon, as well as baseball researchers Chris and Lindsay Dial. Chris was an early pioneer in the field of defensive metrics. Lindsay is a writer at Baseball Prospectus who has looked into topics that include competitive balance, and language in baseball journalism.Mark and Mauricio talked about the challenges of playing so many different positions, why transitioning from infield to outfield is tough beyond just making plays, and why Mauricio tracks the catch probabilities on the plays he makes.Mark, Chris, and Lindsay talked about Chris's early invention of a defensive stat, originally known as Defensive Runs Saved, but now known as Runs Effectively Defended (RED for short). They also discussed Lindsay's recent piece comparing competitive balance across MLB, the NBA, and the NFL, as well as her look at vocabulary used to describe players by baseball writers that was a presentation at the SABR convention.Lindsay's article on competitive balancehttps://www.seatoseabaseball.com/the-myth-of-competitive-balance/Thanks as always for listening. Please check out the FieldingBible.com website, follow us on Bluesky at @sportsinfosolutions.com, and read our work at SportsInfoSolutions.com. You can e-mail us at Mark@sportsinfosolutions.com.

Leading the Alliance for Decision Education's work to make decision science part of core curriculum are David Samuelson, the organization's Executive Director, and Mary Call Blanusa, its Director of Public Policy. Samuelson spent his career leading digital transformation at national associations before turning to teaching students and school leaders the skills to navigate uncertainty — the same skills, he says, that make a good sailor in unpredictable water. Blanusa brings two decades of education policy and philanthropy experience, including co-designing decision-making courses with state systems like the Tennessee Board of Regents. Together they're building the research, courses, and district partnerships that treat decision making as a teachable skill, not an innate trait. A principal ignored a direct order from central office — and made the right call anyway. This post breaks down the decision-making process that got him there: how to turn gut feelings into percentages, separate good decisions from good outcomes, and keep your judgment sharp as AI takes over more of the thinking for you.

Professional forecaster Molly Hickman breaks down what it really means to assign a probability to the future — and why she believes generalists often out-forecast subject-matter experts. This episode explores the art and science of forecasting, from techniques to ethical considerations, and how AI and prediction markets are shaping our understanding of the future.Key TopicsThe definition of forecasting and its importanceTechniques for starting in forecastingThe role of AI and large language models in forecastingHow to interpret probabilities and conditional forecastsForecasting in complex systems like climate and geopoliticsEthical boundaries and red lines in prediction marketsThe impact of AI bots on forecasting accuracy and decision makingChapters03:06 Getting Started with Forecasting: Tools and Techniques06:15 Beginning Forecasting as a Beginner07:31 Gut Feelings vs Market Wisdom08:33 The Delphi Loop and Group Forecasting09:39 Measuring Forecast Accuracy and Skill11:17 Forecasting Long-Term and Uncertain Events12:40 Extrapolating Trends and Model Limitations14:19 AI Bots in Forecasting and Their Performance18:16 Prediction Markets as Collective Wisdom19:19 The Future of Prediction Markets and Society24:06 The Meaning of Probabilities and Risk Assessment27:20 Dealing with Chaos and Unpredictability32:52 Combining Models and Expert Opinions36:31 Forecasting and Expertise in Science and Policy39:01 Forecasting AI Risks and Ethical BoundariesFollow Molly Hickman on X (https://x.com/celloMolly)Follow Breaking Math onSubstack (https://breakingmath.substack.com/)X (https://x.com/breakingmathpod)Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/breakingmathmedia/)Website (https://www.breakingmath.io/)YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/@BreakingMathPod)Follow Noah onInstagram (https://www.instagram.com/profnoahgian/)X (https://x.com/ProfNoahGian)Bluesky (https://bsky.app/profile/profnoahgian.bsky.social)Follow Autumn onX (https://x.com/1autumn_leaf)Bluesky (https://bsky.app/profile/1autumnleaf.bsky.social)Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/1autumnleaf/)Substack (https://substack.com/@1autumnleaf)email: breakingmathpodcast@gmail.com

Derek Moore and Shane Skinner run the post Labor Day numbers, including what the S&P 500 has done the day after Labor Day, the rest of that week, the rest of September, and the rest of the year going back to 1945. Plus, a look at Jeff Weniger's chart showing growth stocks failing again at the 1980 to 2000 resistance line versus value, what the options market implies for Oracle around earnings, and where forward earnings estimates and multiples sit on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. All that and more this week.     S&P 500 performance the day after Labor Day going back to 1945. The index fell 0.45% the day after Labor Day this year. The day after Labor Day averaged -0.81% in the last 10 years and was positive only 10% of the time. Since 1945 the day after averages -0.14% and is positive 49% of the time. The rest of September after Labor Day averages -0.89% since 1945. The rest of the year after Labor Day averages 3.23% and is positive 73% of the time. Jeff Weniger's chart of S&P 500 Growth relative to S&P 500 Value back to 1980. Growth versus value failed again at the five-decade resistance line it last touched in 2021. What followed the 2021 touch when the market rotated hard into value in 2022. Oracle options into earnings and what implied volatility said about the expected move. Front week Oracle implied vols north of 120 with the stock near $162.52. Oracle trading around 18.4 times forward earnings on estimates of $8.82 a share. S&P 500 forward earnings estimate of $381.68 a share for a forward P/E near 20.2 times. Next year's S&P 500 estimate of $450.43 implies another 18% earnings growth. Nasdaq 100 forward earnings estimate of $1,288 a share at roughly 22.9 times. Why index multiples look different once you line them up against expected earnings growth.   Mentioned in this Episode   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com    

Unexpected events happen to us all.This is why it is never completely within our power to determine the acceleration and elevation of our lives. We can, however, influence our futures to a meaningful degree through the intensity of our energies and the direction of our activities.Your energy and your activities, your decisions and their consequences are the gas pedal, the gearbox, the steering wheel and the roulette wheel of your life.Energy is the fuel that determines how fast your motor is spinning.How much energy are you expending each day?Activities determine your acceleration.What are you doing each day with your time?The amount of time you spend doing a thing – let's call it “practicing” – determines whether you are in first, second, third, fourth, or fifth gear.Decisions spin the roulette wheel of Probability.Consequences follow decisions.Some of these consequences will be the ones that you were hoping for when you made your decision. Others will not.Unintended consequences happen to us all.Serendipity is an unintended consequence that works in your favor. Catastrophe is an unintended consequence that works against you.Never assume that the roulette wheel of Probability will always land on a winning number. Even when you have a 90 percent probability of winning, one out of every ten spins of the roulette wheel will punish you for no reason.It isn't fair.It isn't right.You didn't plan for this.You didn't choose it.But it happened.Get over it. Get past it.Deal with it. Move on.Do not allow your ears to hear your mouth tell the story of your bad luck. Do not let your eyes read the words of it; for every time you revisit your dark story, you empower that one, bad spin of the roulette wheel to determine the acceleration and elevation of your life.Quit whining and start winning.What will you do with your energy and activities, your decisions and their consequences?Will you choose a journey that is structured and predictable, or will you choose an exciting adventure?Predictable, structured journeys are often tedious and soul-sucking.Adventures are exciting because they bubble with trouble and danger. If there lurks no Wicked Witch, no dragon, no lions or tigers or bears, you are not having an adventure.Paul Tournier wrote a marvelous book called “The Adventure of Living”.Here are a few bits of its wisdom:“The excitement of adventure rescues us from the Sea of Introspection that drowns many of those who hesitate.”“The adventurous life is not one exempt from fear, but on the contrary, one that is lived in full knowledge of fears of all kinds, one in which we go forward in spite of our fears.”“The law of adventure is that it dies as it achieves its object.”Dorothy, go, adventure beyond the Wicked Witch, the flying monkeys and the sleep of the poppies, all the way to Oz.Bilbo, go, adventure beyond William the troll and the spiders of Mirkwood into the lair of the dragon. Ride through the skies on the backs of giant eagles and return home as an altogether different Hobbit.Frodo, go, adventure to Mordor with elves, dwarves, and men, destroy the ring, save Middle earth, then sail away on the White Ship to the Undying Lands.Go, reader, find your adventure and feel alive again.Roy H. WilliamsThe Wall Street Journal published a Pulitzer Prize-winning newspaper on September 12, 2001, the day after 9/11. Their offices had been destroyed. The boss could not be reached. The Journal was published, nonetheless.Listen as deputy rover Maxwell Rotbart interviews roving reporter Dean Rotbart, his father and co-host. They are talking about Dean's newly expanded September Twelfth: An American Comeback Story. What we can learn from the Journal's extraordinary response to a crisis that no contingency plan would ever have anticipated?You are unreachable and your offices have been destroyed. Do your people know what matters? Do they feel empowered to act?Can you believe that 9/11 happened 25 years ago? You will find it all at MondayMorningRadio.comNOTE: First published in 2021, September Twelfth received a Gold Medal from the Nonfiction Authors Association.

Dr. Feldman on PROBABILITY BIASES [Dr. Feldman's Book]Difamilast: Another nonsteroidal topical for AD [article]Bruising from polycaprolactone [article]Bx of normal-looking skin in kids [article]Dupi facial redness: from demodex??? [article]Want to expand your dermatology knowledge? Check out Summit Derm here!⁠https://medicine.utah.edu/dermatology/education/cme-opportunities/summit⁠Learn more about the U of U Dermatology ECHO model! ⁠physicians.utah.edu/echo/dermatology-primarycare⁠ Want to donate to the cause? Do so here!Donate to the podcast: ⁠⁠uofuhealth.org/dermasphere⁠⁠Check out our video content on YouTube:⁠⁠www.youtube.com/@dermaspherepodcast⁠⁠and VuMedi!: ⁠⁠www.vumedi.com/channel/dermasphere/⁠⁠The University of Utah's DermatologyECHO: ⁠⁠⁠physicians.utah.edu/echo/dermatology-primarycare⁠⁠ Connect with us!- Web: ⁠⁠⁠dermaspherepodcast.com/⁠⁠⁠ - Twitter: @⁠DermaspherePC⁠- Instagram: dermaspherepodcast- Facebook: ⁠⁠www.facebook.com/DermaspherePodcast/⁠⁠- Check out Luke and Michelle's other podcast,SkinCast! ⁠⁠⁠healthcare.utah.edu/dermatology/skincast/⁠⁠⁠ Luke and Michelle report no significant conflicts of interest… BUT check out our friends at:- ⁠Kikoxp.com ⁠(a social platform for doctors to share knowledge)- ⁠⁠⁠www.levelex.com/games/top-derm⁠⁠⁠ (A free dermatology game to learn more dermatology!

Gene Wolfe, from a 1982 video. Gene Wolfe (1931-2019), author of several science fiction novels and short stories, including “The Book of the New Sun,” interviewed by Richard Wolinsky, Lawrence Davidson and Richard A. Lupoff at Bay Con, Thanksgiving weekend, 1982. The noted fantasy and science fiction writer Gene Wolfe died on April 14, 2019, one month shy of his 88th birthday. By the time of his death, he'd achieved a lifetime achievement award from the World Fantasy Convention, he'd been acclaimed a science fiction Grand Master from the Science Fiction and Fantasy Writers of America, had won several awards from various organizations in the field, and was considered a writer's writer. That last designation is important because unlike writers like Ursula K. LeGuin or Isaac Asimov or Stephen King or Terry Pratchett, Wolfe's fame never spread beyond these genres, despite writing in a literary style, and focusing on philosophical and moral issues in his work. Wolfe started publishing late in life. His first novel, Operation Ares, was published just before his fortieth birthday, in 1970. But after that, his collection of short stories, The Island of Doctor Death and Other Stories, and other Stories, and his multi-volume Book of the New Sun skyrocketed his career inside the science fiction fantasy field. By 1982, his reputation had sufficiently cemented to be named a Guest of Honor at the first Bay Con convention over Thanksgiving weekend, 1982, and it's there that Richard A. Lupoff, Lawrence Davidson and Richard Wolinsky had a chance to interview him about his work and career. The first two of the four volume Book of the New Sun – The Shadow of the Torturer and The Claw of the Conciliator had been published to great critical acclaim, and it seemed he was on the verge of a super-stardom that never moved outside his chosen field. The next two volumes of Book of the New Sun, The Sword of the Lictor and The Citadel of the Autarchwere published in 1983 and 1984. A fifth book, The Urth of the New Sun, was published in 1987, and a collection of essays about the series, The Castle of the Otter, was published by a small press shortly after this interview was recorded.  He would go on to write several multi-book novels, including The Book of the Long Sun, The Book of the Short Sun and The Wizard Knight, along with other novels, short stories, and essay collections. His last novel, A Borrowed Man, was published in 2015. A film version of The Death of Doctor Island was partially filmed in 2008 but has never been released. There's also a short called Doctor island from 1999 that may or may not be the same film. Digitizing, remastering & re-editing by Richard Wolinsky in 2019. This podcast was first posted on November 3, 2019. Updated in 2026. The post Probabilities Archive: Gene Wolfe (1931-2019), Science Fiction Grandmaster, 1982 appeared first on KPFA.

Get a free week of THC+ with no credit card required: https://www.thehighersidechats.com/plus-tv-trial/ In this episode, Jordan Crowder, a consciousness researcher and host of the Conscious Observers Podcast, shares insights from his near-death experience, explores the nature of reality through the lens of simulator theory, and discusses techniques for manifesting and engineering probability to shape our […] The post Jordan Crowder | Ritual Events, Probability Engineering, & The Simulator appeared first on The Higherside Chats.

Risk is unavoidable in investing—and in life. But not all risks deserve equal attention. It is easy to focus primarily on the probability that something will happen. If an investment, career move, or financial strategy has a high likelihood of succeeding, we may assume it is a good decision. But Mark Biller, Executive Editor at Sound Mind Investing, suggests another question may be even more important: If things go wrong, how wrong could they go? That shift—from focusing on probabilities to considering consequences—can help us make wiser financial decisions and protect ourselves from risks that could permanently derail our plans. A Small Probability Can Carry a Huge Consequence Suppose someone told you there was a 99% chance an opportunity would succeed. Those odds sound compelling. But what if the remaining 1% chance of failure meant complete financial ruin? Suddenly, the decision looks very different. A simple illustration is crossing a busy street. The probability of being hit by a vehicle may be relatively small, but we still look both ways because the potential consequence is catastrophic. A low probability does not make a severe consequence irrelevant. The same principle applies to investing. An outcome may be statistically unlikely, but if it could wipe out your savings, destroy your retirement plan, or leave you unable to meet your obligations, it deserves serious consideration. Financial thinker Peter Bernstein summarized the principle well: the consequences of being wrong can matter more than the probabilities of being right. That leads to two important questions: If this goes wrong, how wrong could it go?  And how much would it matter? Why Humility Matters in Investing Financial history offers plenty of reminders that even highly intelligent investors cannot anticipate every outcome. One famous example is the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998. The hedge fund was run by some of the brightest minds in finance and relied on sophisticated mathematical models. Those models worked under most circumstances—but a combination of leverage and extraordinary market conditions caused enormous losses. The lesson is not that investors should avoid risk altogether. Risk is part of investing. Rather, wise investors recognize the limits of their knowledge. We cannot predict every market decline, economic shock, or unexpected life event. That reality should lead us toward humility and encourage us to build financial plans with room for error. Build a Margin of Safety One practical way to prepare for uncertainty is to maintain a margin of safety. That begins before investing. A strong financial foundation includes reducing burdensome debt and establishing adequate emergency savings. Then, as you invest, diversification can help reduce the danger of concentrated bets, while avoiding excessive leverage can protect against losses that permanently impair your financial position. The goal is not to eliminate every possible risk. That would be impossible. Instead, margin allows your plan to survive when circumstances do not unfold as expected. Biblical wisdom encourages this kind of prudence. Proverbs 22:3 says: “The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.” Wise stewardship does not require us to live fearfully. But it does call us to recognize potential danger and prepare appropriately. Your Emergency Fund Protects More Than Emergencies An emergency fund may seem separate from an investment portfolio, but the two are closely connected. Think of investing like climbing a ladder. Before climbing higher, you want to make sure the ladder is resting on firm ground. Emergency savings provide that foundation. Unexpected expenses are inevitable. A furnace fails. A vehicle needs replacing sooner than expected. A major repair suddenly becomes necessary. Without adequate savings, those expenses may force you to sell investments at exactly the wrong time—perhaps when the market is down significantly. What began as an ordinary household expense can then cause lasting damage to a long-term investment plan. An emergency fund creates financial breathing room so temporary problems do not become permanent setbacks. Protecting Retirees From Sequence-of-Returns Risk Consequences become especially important as retirement approaches. One risk retirees face is known as sequence-of-returns risk. This occurs when significant investment losses happen early in retirement while a retiree is simultaneously withdrawing money from the portfolio. Two retirees could experience similar average investment returns over several decades but have very different outcomes depending on when the losses occur. A steep market decline early in retirement can be particularly damaging because withdrawals compound those losses. Even strong returns later may not fully repair the damage. Diversification can help manage this risk. Some retirees also choose to keep several years of anticipated spending in cash or relatively low-risk investments so they are less likely to sell stocks during a severe market downturn. The appropriate strategy will vary by household, but the principle remains the same: consider not only what is likely to happen, but what would happen to your plan if difficult circumstances arrived at an inconvenient time. How Much Risk Can You Afford? Risk tolerance is often discussed in terms of emotion: How comfortable are you when markets fall? That matters, but consequence-based thinking adds another dimension. Ask what would happen if an investment or strategy failed. Would the loss merely be disappointing? Or would it prevent you from retiring, eliminate your emergency reserves, jeopardize your home, or keep you awake at night? If a negative outcome would derail your financial goals, you may be taking more risk than you can afford—even if the probability of success appears high. On the other hand, if you can absorb the downside without seriously damaging your financial plan, then probability can play a larger role in the decision. This framework also guards against becoming too conservative. Avoiding stocks entirely in retirement may reduce short-term market volatility, for example, but it introduces another potential consequence: a portfolio may fail to keep pace with inflation over a retirement that lasts several decades. Wise risk management considers both sides. Stewardship Leaves Room for the Unexpected We cannot know exactly what markets, inflation, interest rates, or the economy will do next. And Scripture never promises that careful planning will remove uncertainty from our lives. Our confidence ultimately rests somewhere deeper. As Christians, we believe God is sovereign and that our ultimate security is found in Christ—not in the performance of our portfolios. That frees us to approach financial decisions with both wisdom and humility. We can plan carefully without pretending we know the future. We can prepare for risk without being ruled by fear. And we can leave margin in our finances because we recognize our own limitations. The goal is not to predict every possible outcome. It is to build a financial life capable of enduring when some of our predictions inevitably prove wrong. Before taking a significant financial risk, don't simply ask, “What are the odds that this will work?” Ask one more question: “If it doesn't, can my financial plan withstand the consequences?” That question may be one of the most valuable safeguards a wise steward can use. On Today's Program, Rob Answers Listener Questions: My son and daughter-in-law have a car loan with a payment over $900 a month and likely a very high interest rate because of poor credit. Are there any options to refinance, reduce the rate, or lower the payment? I'll reach full retirement age later this year and plan to keep working. Should I start Social Security then so I can save, invest, and give more, or delay benefits to receive a larger amount later? Resources Mentioned: Faithful Steward: FaithFi's Quarterly Magazine (Become a FaithFi Partner) Sound Mind Investing (SMI) Focus on Consequences, Not Probabilities (Article by Austin Pryor at Sound Mind Investing) When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management by Roger Lowenstein Master Your Money: A Step-by-Step Plan for Experiencing Financial Contentment by Ron Blue with Michael Blue Christian Credit Counselors FaithFi Field Guide: How Much Money is Enough?  Our Ultimate Treasure: A 21-Day Journey to Faithful Stewardship by Rob West Wisdom Over Wealth: 12 Lessons from Ecclesiastes on Money Look At The Sparrows: A 21-Day Devotional on Financial Fear and Anxiety Rich Toward God: A Study on the Parable of the Rich Fool Find a Certified Kingdom Advisor® (CKA) FaithFi App Remember, you can call in to ask your questions every weekday at (800) 525-7000. Faith & Finance is also available on Moody Radio Network and American Family Radio. You can also visit FaithFi.com to connect with our online community and partner with us as we help more people live as faithful stewards of God's resources. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It’s usually smarter to weigh consequences rather than chase probabilities. Whether you’re building a portfolio or mulling over a new job prospect, checking the odds of success matters. But what if even a low‑odds failure could wipe you out financially? On the next Faith & Finance Live, Rob West and Mark Biller talk through how to guard against events that can ruin a financial plan and more. Then, it’s on to calls. That’s Faith & Finance Live, biblical wisdom for your financial journey. That’s weekdays at 4pm Eastern/3pm Central on Moody Radio. Faith & Finance Live is a listener supported program on Moody Radio. To join our team of supporters, click here.To support the ministry of FaithFi, click here.To learn more about Rob West, click here.To learn more about Faith & Finance Live, click here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, host Andy Leonard sits down with Ilan Man, founder and CEO of Paradox Machines, a full-stack data and AI company based in Brooklyn. Ilan shares his fascinating journey from an actuarial career to the dynamic field of data science, exploring the rise of big data, the art of translating complex mathematics into code, and the importance of numeracy in society. Together, they discuss the paradoxes at the heart of data and AI, the challenges of decision-making under uncertainty, and why intuition, risk management, and storytelling remain critical in a world driven by data. Whether you're a data enthusiast, decision-maker, or just curious about how numbers shape our lives, this conversation delivers valuable insights and a healthy dose of skepticism about the limits, and possibilities, of analytics.Linkshttps://www.linkedin.com/in/ilanman/Time Stamps00:00 Starting a career in data science03:34 Discovering a career in actuarial science08:17 Learning coding and joining Squarespace11:40 Understanding Probability in Code15:36 Questioning Confidence in Decision-Making20:06 Discussing COVID vaccine effectiveness21:09 Understanding vaccine effectiveness24:41 Consumers interacting with unpredictable AI29:35 Discussing disease perception and interpretation33:01 Casino audiobook and extra details35:41 Balancing data-driven decisions40:07 Career journey to founding Paradox40:49 Building a data platform with AI46:41 Data's Role in Decision Making47:30 Value and limits of data-driven decisions

Robert B. Parker (1932-2010), in conversation with Richard Wolinsky and Richard A. Lupoff, recorded June 13, 1992 while on tour for the Spenser novel, “Double Deuce.” Mystery and suspense author Robert B. Parker died at the age of 77 on January 18, 2010. His career encompassed 38 novels in his popular Spenser detective series during his life, with another three published posthumously, plus nine novels in the Jesse Stone series, four in the Cole and Hitch series, six in the Sonny Randall series, nine other novels, and four books of non-fiction. There were two Probabilities interviews with Robert B. Parker. The first time, co-hosted with Lawrence Davidson, was recorded in Parker's hotel room in the spring of 1981. At the time he'd just switched publishers and with Looking for Rachel Wallace and then Early Autumn, he was finally having success as an author. His success would explode exponentially over the next eleven years, and by the time of this interview. Robert Parker had written an additional ten Spenser novels, the TV series Spencer for Hire starring Robert Urich had run for three seasons, and a spin-off, A Man Called Hawk had had a 13 episode run. In addition, he'd completed an unfinished Philip Marlowe novel by Raymond Chandler, and followed that up with a sequel. Four Robert Urich Spenser films were produced after the interview was recorded, each based on a different Spenser novel by Parker. Three Spenser TV movies, based on three other novels with Joe Mantagna as Spenser ran from 1999 to 2001. A 2020 Netflix film with Mark Wahlberg, Spencer: Confidential, was based on a Spenser novel written by another author, Ace Atkins, who continued the series. In the interview, Robert Parker insists he won't start other series. In fact, of course, he did. The Sonny Randall series, featuring a female former cop turned private eye; the Cole & Hitch series of western detective novels, and the Jesse Stone series, featuring the police chief of a small town in Massachusetts. There have also been nine made for television films starting Tom Selleck as Jesse Stone. This interview was digitized, remastered and re-edited in January 2024 by Richard Wolinsky and was first posted on January 7, 2024. The post Probabilities Archive: Robert B. Parker (1932-2010), The Spenser novels, 1992 appeared first on KPFA.

People won't stop talking about a potential Steph Curry to Boston trade -- why? Is it even plausible at this point? Plus, the NBA schedule release, Lakers ownership schadenfreude, Jaylen Brown meme'd into oblivion, and much more.

Bookwaves/Artwaves is produced and hosted by Richard Wolinsky. Links to assorted local theater & book venues   The Probabilities Archive: Robert B. Parker (1932-2010), The Spenser Novels, 1992 Robert B. Parker (1932-2010), in conversation with Richard Wolinsky and Richard A. Lupoff, recorded June 13, 1992 while on tour for the Spenser novel, “Double Deuce.” Mystery and suspense author Robert B. Parker died at the age of 77 on January 18, 2010. His career encompassed 38 novels in his popular Spenser detective series during his life, with another three published posthumously, plus nine novels in the Jesse Stone series, four in the Cole and Hitch series, six in the Sonny Randall series, nine other novels, and four books of non-fiction. There were two Probabilities interviews with Robert B. Parker. The first time, co-hosted with Lawrence Davidson, was recorded in Parker's hotel room in the spring of 1981. At the time he'd just switched publishers and with Looking for Rachel Wallace and then Early Autumn, he was finally having success as an author. His success would explode exponentially over the next eleven years, and by the time of this interview. Robert Parker had written an additional ten Spenser novels, the TV series Spencer for Hire starring Robert Urich had run for three seasons, and a spin-off, A Man Called Hawk had had a 13 episode run. In addition, he'd completed an unfinished Philip Marlowe novel by Raymond Chandler, and followed that up with a sequel. This interview was digitized, remastered and re-edited in January 2024 by Richard Wolinsky and has only been posted as a podcast.   The Probabilities Archive: Nancy Pickard, The Jenny Craig Mysteries, 1990 Nancy Pickard, author of the Jenny Crain mysteries, in conversation with Richard Wolinsky and Richard A. Lupoff, recorded April 4, 1990 in the KPFA studios while on tour for the novel “Bum Steer.” Originally a journalist, Nancy Pickard turned to mysteries in 1984 with Generous Death, which would eventually lead to ten Jenny Crain novels. As of 2026, there are also three novels in the Marie Lightfoot series, three non-series novels, plus three in the Eugenia Potter series, four collections and one co-authored non-fiction work. Her most recent novel to date, The Scent of Rain and Lightning, was published in 2010 and was adapted into a film in 2017. As of 2025, she continues to speak at various mystery conferences and conventions. In the late 1980s, crime and mystery fiction by women skyrocketed. Even so, awards were still being given to mostly male writers, and in 1987, the organization Sisters in Crime was formed. 

In Berkeley, at KPFA, Richard Lupoff and I, the hosts of the Probabilities radio program, having drifted from science fiction into mysteries and later into general fiction and narrative non-fiction, noticed the trend pretty early on, and began interviewing these pioneer writers, one by one, local writers like Marcia Muller and Sue Dunlap, and writers from out of town, such as Sue Grafton, or from overseas, such as P.D. James.

These interviews, the Sisters in Crime interviews, were all conducted in the 1980s and 1990s, and because of the switch from analog tape to digital, were not heard since the new century began, and are now being digitized, one by one. This is the second in the Sisters In Crime series of interviews. This interview was digitized, remastered and edited on August 8, 2026. It was first aired in 1990 and then rebroadcast in 1991. Review of “Orpheus Descending” at Oakland Theatre Project through August 23, 2026     The post Bookwaves/Artwaves – August 13, 2026: Probabilities Mystery Archive: Robert B. Parker – Nancy Pickard appeared first on KPFA.

From the Probabilities Archive: Nancy Pickard, author of the Jenny Crain mysteries, in conversation with Richard Wolinsky and Richard A. Lupoff, recorded April 4, 1990 in the KPFA studios while on tour for the novel “Bum Steer.” Originally a journalist, Nancy Pickard turned to mysteries in 1984 with Generous Death, which would eventually lead to ten Jenny Crain novels. As of 2026, there are also three novels in the Marie Lightfoot series, three non-series novels, plus three in the Eugenia Potter series, four collections and one co-authored non-fiction work. Her most recent novel to date, The Scent of Rain and Lightning, was published in 2010 and was adapted into a film in 2017. As of 2025, she continues to speak at various mystery conferences and conventions. In the late 1980s, crime and mystery fiction by women skyrocketed. Even so, awards were still being given to mostly male writers, and in 1987, the organization Sisters in Crime was formed. 

In Berkeley, at KPFA, Richard Lupoff and I, the hosts of the Probabilities radio program, having drifted from science fiction into mysteries and later into general fiction and narrative non-fiction, noticed the trend pretty early on, and began interviewing these pioneer writers, one by one, local writers like Marcia Muller and Sue Dunlap, and writers from out of town, such as Sue Grafton, or from overseas, such as P.D. James.

These interviews, the Sisters in Crime interviews, were all conducted in the 1980s and 1990s, and because of the switch from analog tape to digital, were not heard since the new century began, and are now being digitized, one by one. This is the second in the Sisters In Crime series of interviews. This interview was digitized, remastered and edited on August 8, 2026. It was first aired in 1990 and then rebroadcast in 1991.   The post Sisters In Crime: Nancy Pickard, the Jenny Crain Mysteries, 1990 appeared first on KPFA.

A quiet man spends decades chasing an impossible invention, only to discover that success carries a responsibility far greater than wealth or fame. When the future reveals a disaster that has not happened yet, one ordinary bartender must decide whether he is willing to become the man history needs. Probability by Louis Trimble. That's next on The Lost Sci-Fi Podcast. Louis Preston Trimble makes his debut on the podcast today and it's probably the only time he will be here. Born in Seattle Washington in 1917 Trimble wrote more than 60 novels, some sci-fi, mostly westerns and mysteries but only one science fiction short story. This is the fourth story we've featured from the April 1954 issue of If, following The Golden Man by Philip K. Dick, Breeder Reaction by Winston Marks, and Way of a Rebel by Walter M. Miller Jr. We will find our story on page 99, Probability by Louis Trimble… Next on The Lost Sci-Fi Podcast, A young researcher risks his career, his freedom, and his sanity to prove that madness can be reversed with a single injection. But when the only way to demonstrate the cure is from inside a locked ward, he must decide whether to stake his life on the very drug that put him there. Open All Doors by Harry Harrison and Hubert Pritchard. Lost Sci-Fi Premium - https://lostscifi.supercast.com/ Buy Me a Coffee - https://lostscifi.com/coffee Newsletter - https://lostscifi.com/free/ Facebook - https://lostscifi.com/facebook YouTube - https://lostscifi.com/youtube X - http://Lostscifi.com/x Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/lostscifiguy Bluesky - https://bsky.app/profile/lostscifipodcast.bsky.social Merchandise - https://lostscifi.creator-spring.com/ Thanks to Our Listeners Who Bought Us a Coffee $200 Someone $100 Tony from the Future $75 James Van Maanenberg $50 James Van Maanenberg, MizzBassie, Anonymous Listener $25 Fintan Quigley, Curious Jon, David Bell, Steve, Miriam, Someone, Someone, Eaten by a Grue, Jeff Lussenden, Fred Sieber, Anne, Craig Hamilton, Dave Wiseman, Bromite Thrip, Marwin de Haan, Future Space Engineer, Fressie, Kevin Eckert, Stephen Kagan, James Van Maanenberg, Irma Stolfo, Josh Jennings, Leber8tr, Conrad Chaffee, Anonymous Listener $15 Every Month Someone $15 Steve, Someone, SueTheLibrarian, Joannie West, Amy Özkan, Someone, Carolyn Guthleben, Patrick McLendon, Curious Jon, Buz C., Fressie, Anonymous Listener $10 David, Anonymous Listener $5 Every Month Eaten by a Grue $5 Tammy, Owen, Bruce, Someone, TLD, David, Denis Kalinin, Timothy Buckley, Andre'a, Martin Brown, Ron McFarlan, Tif Love, Chrystene, Richard Hoffman, Anonymous Listener Listen without commercials and enjoy exclusive bonus episodes every month with Lost Sci-Fi Premium—start your free 7-day trial today. https://lostscifi.supercast.com/ Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

A scientist condemned to a punishment unlike anything ever devised watches centuries slip past while every civilization around him rises, changes, and disappears. As the world transforms beyond recognition, only one question remains: what will finally bring his endless sentence to an end? Pendulum by Ray Bradbury and Henry Hasse. That's next on The Lost Sci-Fi Podcast. You can never have too many 5-star reviews. Never. Every one reminds us why we do this, but some hit a little differently. This one from Apple Podcasts Canada absolutely made our day. wethesheep-not wrote: “Delightful. Best narrator ever! Hands down best audiobook podcast! You can't compare this podcast with any other.” Wow. To everyone who has taken a minute to leave a rating or review, thank you. Those reviews help more listeners discover The Lost Sci-Fi Podcast, and they remind us that these classic stories are still finding new fans all over the world. And to wethesheep-not—thank you for such incredibly kind words. We truly appreciate you listening and taking the time to share your thoughts. Ray Bradbury and Henry Hasse joined forces on just three stories. We featured one of them, Final Victim, about two and a half years ago. From the November 1941 issue of Super Science Stories on page 102, Pendulum by Ray Bradbury and Henry Hasse… Next on The Lost Sci-Fi Podcast, A quiet man spends decades chasing an impossible invention, only to discover that success carries a responsibility far greater than wealth or fame. When the future reveals a disaster that has not happened yet, one ordinary bartender must decide whether he is willing to become the man history needs. Probability by Louis Trimble. Lost Sci-Fi Premium - https://lostscifi.supercast.com/ Buy Me a Coffee - https://lostscifi.com/coffee Newsletter - https://lostscifi.com/free/ Facebook - https://lostscifi.com/facebook YouTube - https://lostscifi.com/youtube X - http://Lostscifi.com/x Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/lostscifiguy Bluesky - https://bsky.app/profile/lostscifipodcast.bsky.social Merchandise - https://lostscifi.creator-spring.com/ Thanks to Our Listeners Who Bought Us a Coffee $200 Someone $100 Tony from the Future $75 James Van Maanenberg $50 James Van Maanenberg, MizzBassie, Anonymous Listener $25 Fintan Quigley, Curious Jon, David Bell, Steve, Miriam, Someone, Someone, Eaten by a Grue, Jeff Lussenden, Fred Sieber, Anne, Craig Hamilton, Dave Wiseman, Bromite Thrip, Marwin de Haan, Future Space Engineer, Fressie, Kevin Eckert, Stephen Kagan, James Van Maanenberg, Irma Stolfo, Josh Jennings, Leber8tr, Conrad Chaffee, Anonymous Listener $15 Every Month Someone $15 Steve, Someone, SueTheLibrarian, Joannie West, Amy Özkan, Someone, Carolyn Guthleben, Patrick McLendon, Curious Jon, Buz C., Fressie, Anonymous Listener $10 David, Anonymous Listener $5 Every Month Eaten by a Grue $5 Tammy, Owen, Bruce, Someone, TLD, David, Denis Kalinin, Timothy Buckley, Andre'a, Martin Brown, Ron McFarlan, Tif Love, Chrystene, Richard Hoffman, Anonymous Listener Listen without commercials and enjoy exclusive bonus episodes every month with Lost Sci-Fi Premium—start your free 7-day trial today. https://lostscifi.supercast.com/ Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Neuroscientist Stuart Firestein (Columbia University) joins Breaking Math to make an extravagant claim: uncertainty isn't a weakness in science — it's the defining feature that makes progress possible. In this episode, we break down why the "one right answer" myth is one of the most damaging ideas in science, why real experts are often the most uncertain people in the room, and why authority and expertise pull in opposite directions, covering two fundamentally different kinds of probability, why Darwin never erased a 300-year-old classification system built on an assumption he disproved, why AI is exceptional at prediction but not built for causation, and why pseudoscience always has a confident answer while real science rarely does — plus the philosophical difference between hope and optimism, and why Voltaire had to invent the word "optimism" in 1759 to describe it. Chapters03:00 Predictability and the sea of uncertainties04:08 Science as a search for probabilities and multiple solutions06:16 Biological classification and the dynamic nature of species09:10 The optimistic view of a branching universe12:41 Probability as the language of optimism16:48 Two types of probability and their roles17:50 AI, probabilistic models, and the future of certainty21:40 Science and the creation of better ignorance23:21 The importance of asking questions over giving answers27:21 Authority versus knowledge in science30:04 Pluralism and multiple solutions in science32:46 Science in the gray area of uncertainty35:39 The brain and randomness in thought39:44 Science as a source of hope and optimismFollow Breaking Math onSubstack (https://breakingmath.substack.com/)X (https://x.com/breakingmathpod)Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/breakingmathmedia/)Bluesky (https://bsky.app/profile/breakingmath.bsky.social)Website (https://www.breakingmath.io/)YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/@BreakingMathPod)Follow Noah onInstagram (https://www.instagram.com/profnoahgian/)X (https://x.com/ProfNoahGian)Bluesky (https://bsky.app/profile/profnoahgian.bsky.social)Follow Autumn onX (https://x.com/1autumn_leaf)Bluesky (https://bsky.app/profile/1autumnleaf.bsky.social)Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/1autumnleaf/)Substack (https://substack.com/@1autumnleaf)email: breakingmathpodcast@gmail.com

Bookwaves/Artwaves is produced and hosted by Richard Wolinsky. Links to assorted local theater & book venues   The Probabilities Archive: Robert Bloch (1917-1994), Pulp Magazine Writer and Novelist Robert Bloch (1917-1994), who died on September 23, 1994 at the age of 77, began his career writing fantasy and horror for the pulp magazines, and graduated after World War II to writing psychological thriller novels, often focusing on serial killers. He is best known today for having written the novel “Psycho,” which was adapted into the classic 1959 film by Alfred Hitchcock. From the 1950s through 1970s, he also wrote for episode television (most notably “Alfred Hitchcock Presents”) and made for television films. In all, there were countless short stories, over thirty published novels, and several non-fiction articles. On March 4, 1982, the late Probabilities co-host Richard A. Lupoff (1935-2020) ninterviewed Robert Bloch before an audience. There were no major science fiction conventions at the time, so it's not clear exactly where this interview took place). In the first part of the interview, Bloch discusses his friendship with H.P. Lovecraft, his work with the legendary Fictioneers writing group, and the creation of his Lefty Feep series of short stories. The second part of the interview takes him to his novel-writing days, with a look at the creation of his most famous character, Norman Bates of “Psycho.” Digitized and edited August 1-2, 2026 and introduced by host Richard Wolinsky. Portions of this interview found their way into “Space Ships! Ray Guns! Martian Octopods: Interviews with Science Fiction Legends,” edited by Richard Wolinskky and published by Tachyon Books in 2025.   The post Bookwaves/Artwaves – August 6, 2026: Robert Bloch (1917-1994), Author of “Psycho” appeared first on KPFA.

Evolutionists explain that life started from non-living matter in some sort of "primeval soup." Over the years, they have presented several scenarios of how this might have happened. They have suggested isolated ponds, pools of water on the sides of volcanoes, and in the oceans. Let's consider the general mathematical principles involved in any of these scenarios.In science, the person who proposes a theory is supposed to present the evidence for that theory. Yet, for the incredible claim that life sprang into being out of non-living materials, no evidence is offered. Just how incredible are evolution's claims about the origin of life? Given the conditions evolutionists claim existed at the origin of life, the chance of evolving the simple, common, iso -1-cytochrome "c" protein is one chance out of one followed by 75 zeros. But that's not a living, reproducing thing. Given the same conditions, the chance of getting a DNA molecule with the ability to reproduce is 100 billion, billion to one. The chance of getting a minimal cell works out to one chance out of a 1 followed by 4,478,296 zeros!Rigorous examination of evolution's claims about the origin of life shows that every evolutionary claim about how life started is just as fanciful. As every believer has testified, God is the source of all life, including yours and mine. It has always been so and will always be so.Job 10:12"Thou hast granted me life and favour, and thy visitation hath preserved my spirit.”Prayer: Dear Father in heaven, I thank You for the gift of life and eternal life. Amen.Ref: Joseph Mastropaolo, “Evolution Is Biologically Impossible,” Impact #137. To support this ministry financially, visit: https://www.oneplace.com/donate/1232/29?v=20251111

Robert Bloch (1917-1994), who died on September 23, 1994 at the age of 77, began his career writing fantasy and horror for the pulp magazines, and graduated after World War II to writing psychological thriller novels, often focusing on serial killers. He is best known today for having written the novel “Psycho,” which was adapted into the classic 1959 film by Alfred Hitchcock. From the 1950s through 1970s, he also wrote for episode television (most notably “Alfred Hitchcock Presents”) and made for television films. In all, there were countless short stories, over thirty published novels, and several non-fiction articles. On March 4, 1982, the late Probabilities co-host Richard A. Lupoff (1935-2020) ninterviewed Robert Bloch before an audience. There were no major science fiction conventions at the time, so it's not clear exactly where this interview took place). In the first part of the interview, Bloch discusses his friendship with H.P. Lovecraft, his work with the legendary Fictioneers writing group, and the creation of his Lefty Feep series of short stories. The second part of the interview takes him to his novel-writing days, with a look at the creation of his most famous character, Norman Bates of “Psycho.” Following a question about which Robert Bloch story is the one he'd leave for posterity, Dick Lupoff turns the interview over to the audience, and asks questions based on their input, including a couple of questions about Bloch's work in television. This 65 minute interview has never been posted or aired in its entirety, having only aired using excepts as a half-hour program on Probabilities in the 1980s. Digitized and edited August 1-2, 2026 and introduced by host Richard Wolinsky. Portions of this interview found their way into “Space Ships! Ray Guns! Martian Octopods: Interviews with Science Fiction Legends,” edited by Richard Wolinskky and published by Tachyon Books in 2025. The post Probabilities Archive: Robert Bloch (1917-1994), Legendary Pulp Magazine Writer and Novelist appeared first on KPFA.

NEW! Little Big Affirmations Deck for Kids: Check it out.   Click here to Shop Affirmation Decks, Oracle Decks, and more! Use Promo code: RCPODCAST20 for 20% off your first order!   Today's Power Affirmation: I believe in miracles because I am a miracle.   Today's Oracle of Motivation: Some smart people with dope computers estimate more stars are visible from Earth with super telescopes than there are grains of sand on the Earth. Another smart dude, Dr. Ali Binazir, estimates that your being birthed from your parents and existing as you are today is "the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with a trillion-sided dice. They each roll the die, and they all come up with the same number, for example, 550,343,279,001." Faith is the part of you that dares to believe in miracles, and since you are a miracle, dare to believe in yourself - 'k?   Designed to Motivate Your Creative Maniac Mind The 60-Second Power Affirmations Podcast is designed to help you focus, affirm your visions, and harness the power within your creative maniac mind! Join us daily for a new 60-second power affirmation followed by a blast of oracle motivation from the Universe (+ a quick breathing meditation). It's time to take off your procrastination diaper and share your musings with the world!   For more musings, visit RageCreate.com     Leave a Review & Share! Apple Podcast reviews are one of THE most important factors for podcasts. If you enjoy the show, please take a second to leave the show a review on Apple Podcasts! Click this link: Leave a review on Apple Podcasts Hit “Listen on Apple Podcasts” on the left-hand side under the picture. Scroll down under “Ratings & Reviews” & click “Write A Review” Leave an honest review. You're awesome!  

Ralph Losey, eDiscovery, AI, and quantum law expert, CEO of Losey AI, LLC, returns to sit down with EDRM's Mary Mack and Holley Robinson. In this episode, Ralph explains how decades spent riding the waves of major legal tech shifts helped him recognize the impact quantum computing will have on the legal profession. That instinct, combined with a lifelong fascination with quantum physics dating back to a high school physics project, drove him to create his course, "Quantum Law: From Causation to Probability," available at quantumlawcourse.com. Ralph offers a vivid analogy for what's coming: today's computing works like a mouse running one path through a maze at a time, while quantum computing works like water flooding the entire maze at once. He stresses the importance of getting "quantum hardened" now and of positioning early to help clients navigate the shift, including in matters of evidence. As always, we ended with a fun fact from Ralph and how best to reach him.

I’ve got a good one for you today my friend! Bill Hartman brings 35 years of experience, and more importantly, a totally unique way of thinking about rehab, performance, and movement. In our conversation, we take a deep dive into how he moved from standard, rule-based systems to a principle-driven framework called the UHP that […] The post Bill Hartman on Movement Models, Return to Play, and Playing the Probabilities appeared first on Robertson Training Systems.

If the best team does not always win, how much of sports success comes down to skill, strategy, or randomness?Eric Eager, Vice President of Football Analytics for the Carolina Panthers, joins the Wharton Moneyball team to examine the role of unpredictability in sports. The conversation explores whether the Home Run Derby is more revealing than it appears, how tournament design influences results, and why major competitions can feel random even when familiar contenders ultimately advance.The discussion also covers World Cup win probabilities, the importance of superstar players, NHL contracts and salary caps, the disappearance of 200-game winners in baseball, and whether momentum can explain the changing performance of elite golfers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stay informed on current events, visit www.NaturalNews.com  - Trump's Toll on the Strait of Hormuz (0:11) - Economic and Strategic Implications (4:36) - Trump's Delusional War Strategy (8:36) - The Futility of Trump's War Plans (11:55) - The Global Impact of Trump's War (44:09) - The Economic and Social Consequences of Trump's War (44:26) - The Legal and Political Challenges of Reforming the FDA (44:47) - The Role of the Courts in Reforming the FDA (45:07) - The Importance of Health Freedom (45:29) - The Legal Strategy of the Alliance for Natural Health (53:15) - The Broader Implications of Health Freedom (53:36) - Government Control and Public Access to Health Information (53:52) - Science, Probability, and Health Claims (1:28:23) - Challenges of Drug Safety vs. Natural Substances (1:31:40) - Impact of Chronic Disease on National Prosperity (1:36:34) - Health Freedom and Legal Battles (1:38:05) - After-Party Discussion on Health Freedom and AI Models (1:40:45) - Unincorporated Nonprofit Associations (UNAs) (1:48:38) - Self-Custody of AI Models (2:00:35) - Personal Stories and Lifestyle (2:06:10) Watch more independent videos at http://www.brighteon.com/channel/hrreport  ▶️ Support our mission by shopping at the Health Ranger Store - https://www.healthrangerstore.com ▶️ Check out exclusive deals and special offers at https://rangerdeals.com ▶️ Sign up for our newsletter to stay informed: https://www.naturalnews.com/Readerregistration.html Watch more exclusive videos here:

Today on The Gist, guest host Bob Garfield introduces the show's new format before diving into a special double-feature interview with science and tech author Steven Johnson. Blending conversations from 2018 and 2016, the episode deconstructs how humanity handles complex, long-term choices and how the simple pursuit of play and delight has secretly driven global history. Johnson breaks down the flaws of binary decision-making, the cognitive value of true group diversity, and how elite historical deliberations rely on tools like the to override tracking errors. Shifting to his book Wonderland, he flips the script on the idea that necessity is the mother of invention, tracing how luxury pursuits like Tyrian purple dye and rare spices accidentally mapped the globe, triggered international espionage, and birthed the modern capitalistic world. Produced by Corey Wara Do you have questions or comments, or just want to say hello? Email us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠thegist@mikepesca.com For full Pesca content and updates, check out our website at https://www.mikepesca.com/⁠ For ad-free content or to become a Pesca Plus subscriber, check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/ For Mike's daily takes on Substack, subscribe to The Gist List https://mikepesca.substack.com/ Follow us on Social Media:⁠⁠⁠⁠ YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4_bh0wHgk2YfpKf4rg40_g⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram https://www.instagram.com/pescagist/ X https://x.com/pescami TikTok https://www.tiktok.com/@pescagist To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠sales@amplitudemediapartners.com Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Why do you keep returning to the same level after making progress? This episode explores human performance, identity, resistance, and the complacent zone. Backsliding Away There is a strange frustration that shows up when you know you are capable of more, but your life keeps snapping back into the same familiar pattern. You make progress. You build momentum. You get closer to the thing you said you wanted. Then something happens. The excuses return. The procrastination shows up. The old habits quietly reappear. Before long, you are back inside the same range you were trying to escape. That is what this episode is about. Not motivation. Not information. Not another strategy. This episode of the Warrior Mind Podcast looks at human performance through a deeper lens: why people keep returning to the same level even when they want something more. Episode Overview Human performance is not just about output. It is not simply about how hard you work, how much discipline you have, or how much potential you carry. Human performance is the expression of your physical capacity, mental clarity, emotional regulation, values, beliefs, and identity under real-world pressure. That last part matters. Because pressure reveals the truth. Anyone can feel capable when life is calm. Anyone can set goals when motivation is high. Anyone can say they want change when the discomfort of staying the same becomes strong enough. But the real test comes when you move close to a new level. That is where the old identity pushes back. That is where many people start returning to the same level. The Complacent Zone In this episode, I talk about what I call the complacent zone. This is the familiar operating range you live inside. It has a floor and a ceiling. The floor is your mental line of support. This is the point where things become uncomfortable enough that you finally take action. Maybe your weight gets too high. Maybe your energy gets too low. Maybe your relationship becomes too strained. Maybe your finances hit a point where you say, “Enough.” That line of support creates urgency. You act. You recommit. You start moving again. But then you approach the ceiling. That ceiling is your mental line of resistance. This is where things get interesting. Because the resistance usually does not look like resistance at first. It looks like being too busy. It looks like needing a break. It looks like losing interest. It looks like confusion, fear, frustration, procrastination, or sudden self-sabotage. But underneath all of that is something more powerful. Your identity is trying to keep you inside the range it recognizes. (function(d,s,id) { var js; var fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0]; if (d.getElementById(id)) return; js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id; js.src = "https://forms.aweber.com/form/30/1374258830.js"; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }(document, "script", "aweber-wjs-1506684634")); Why Returning to the Same Level Feels So Familiar Most people do not repeat patterns because they are weak. They repeat patterns because those patterns are familiar. The mind and body are always working with what has already been practiced. Your beliefs, emotions, values, past experiences, stories, environment, behaviors, and capabilities all help form the internal range you keep returning to. This is why progress can feel real without becoming permanent. You can lose weight and gain it back. You can save money and spend it again. You can build momentum and then quietly lose it. You can get close to the relationship, business, body, or life you want and still find yourself returning to the same level. From the outside, it may look like inconsistency. From the inside, it is often identity protection. The old self knows how to survive inside the old range. It does not always know how to live beyond it. Progress Is Not Always Change One of the strongest ideas in this episode is that movement is not the same as transformation. You may think you are making progress because you are moving upward again. But if you have already been at that level before, you may not be creating anything new. You may simply be recreating the past. That can be hard to admit. But it is also freeing. Because once you see the pattern clearly, you stop confusing short-term improvement with real change. Real change requires moving beyond the old ceiling and staying there long enough for that ceiling to become your new floor. That is the work. Not just breaking through once. Staying through. Probabilities vs. Possibilities Your current life is creating probabilities. Your past and present form a trajectory. If nothing changes beneath the surface, your future becomes fairly predictable. That does not mean it is fixed. It means your current identity system is already producing momentum. If you keep thinking the same way, choosing the same way, reacting the same way, training the same way, avoiding the same conversations, and tolerating the same internal limits, then returning to the same level becomes the most likely outcome. Possibility lives beyond the mental line of resistance. But possibility does not become real just because you can imagine it. Possibility becomes real when your behavior, beliefs, standards, and identity begin to align with that new level. That is where human performance changes. The Physical Side of Human Performance This is why physical challenge matters. The body exposes what the mind can hide. Put a man under a loaded barbell, on a steep trail, in a hard workout, or inside a physically demanding challenge, and his patterns show up quickly. Avoidance shows up. Excuses show up. Self-talk shows up. Emotional regulation shows up. The quality of discipline shows up. That is one reason training is such a powerful mirror. It does not just build strength. It reveals the identity behind the strength. A difficult workout can show you where you negotiate with yourself. A heavy lift can show you where you hesitate. Fatigue can reveal whether your standards are real or just convenient. Human performance is not separate from the body. The physical reveals the psychological. The Real Question Most people ask, “What am I capable of?” That is not a bad question. But it is not the deepest question. The better question is: Can your current identity carry the level of life you say you want? Because potential is not the problem for most people. Many people are carrying more capacity than they are expressing. They know more is possible. They can feel the unused strength, clarity, discipline, and purpose inside them. But potential alone does not change your life. Potential must be converted. Awareness must become action. Action must become practice. Practice must become identity. That is how returning to the same level stops. Key Takeaways From This Episode • Human performance is shaped by identity, not just effort. • The complacent zone is the familiar range between your mental line of support and mental line of resistance. • Your mental line of support is the internal floor that pushes you into action. • Your mental line of resistance is the internal ceiling where fear, excuses, procrastination, and sabotage tend to appear. • Backsliding is often the identity system pulling you back into the familiar. • Progress is not always transformation. Sometimes it is just the past repeating with new language. • Physical challenge reveals mental patterns faster than reflection alone. • Possibility becomes real only when it is practiced long enough to become your new probability. Reflection Questions Where do you keep returning to the same level? Where have you confused movement with real change? What goal have you approached before, only to pull back when it became unfamiliar? What excuses tend to show up near your mental line of resistance? What would have to shift in your identity for that old ceiling to become your new floor? These are not casual questions. They are performance questions. Because the next level of human performance is not found by collecting more information. It is found by identifying the internal range you keep living inside and expanding the identity that determines what you can actually sustain. Closing Thought If you keep returning to the same level, the answer is not always to push harder. Sometimes the answer is to look deeper. Not softer. Deeper. Look at the story. Look at the behavior. Look at the environment. Look at the emotional payoff of staying where you are. Look at the beliefs that keep making the familiar feel safe and the possible feel threatening. Because once you see the system, you can begin to change it. And once you change the system, human performance stops being random. It becomes aligned. Explore The Resilient Man Framework If this episode hit something real, the next step is to look at the structure underneath your performance. The Resilient Man Framework is designed to help you rebuild alignment across physical strength, mental clarity, emotional resilience, and meaningful purpose.

Jeremy Zakis warns of a 97% probability of a Super El Niño, predicting record-breaking heat and dangerous winds for Australia. This forecast necessitates early bushfire preparations, such as controlled burn-offs of undergrowth. The global impact includes severe drought in Africa and heavy winter precipitation in North America. (9)19522

Greg and Doug discuss why markets are stuck in a holding pattern despite a strong first half of the year. They break down the three catalysts investors should be watching, corporate earnings, Federal Reserve policy, and the upcoming midterm elections, while exploring how AI infrastructure spending and geopolitical tensions are influencing inflation and interest rates. The episode wraps up with Wimbledon, the World Cup, The British Open, and the enduring greatness of Novak Djokovic and Lionel Messi. Key Takeaways [02:40] - Three catalysts that the market is looking for [05:12] - Probability of a rate hike + what the fallout would be [10:41] - The summer of European sports View Transcript Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Does “tough on crime” actually work? Could Ban the Box policies backfire? Jen Doleac, PhD, is Executive Vice President of Criminal Justice at Arnold Ventures, a philanthropy maximizing evidence based policy & minimizing injustice. She is an economist & the author of The Science of Second Chances who prefers the reliable lens of data over personal values & has a particular interest in how measurable data can give rise to positive societal change.In this episode, she breaks down when prison actually works versus when it just creates more prisoners & walks through how the minefield of rules in probation may not prevent new crime in the way we think. You'll also hear the re-entry policies that worked vs flopped & the real life results from policies developed through data. If you liked this episode, you'll also like episode 195: ROUNDING UP SUSPICIOUS WOMEN? THE AMERICAN PLANGuest:Book: https://a.co/d/0aZzqCMt https://x.com/jenniferdoleac https://www.linkedin.com/in/jdoleac/ https://jenniferdoleac.comhttps://www.probablecausation.com/ Newsletter https://probablecausation.substack.com/arnoldventures.org Sponsors: https://www.historicpensacola.org/about-us/  2:44 Homicide is basically a coin flip4:36 Probability vs. severity of punishment5:56 The evidence against harsh sentencing8:15 Are we confusing retribution with safety?9:03 Digital crimes and the Undress Me app case12:10 Policymakers blocking unfavorable research14:47 "Tough on crime" politics vs. data24:11 DNA profiles vs. 23andMe: what's actually stored35:04 DUIs: breathalyzers and officer discretion37:56 South Dakota's 24/7 Sobriety program40:43 Re-entry: Ban the Box backfires42:51 Hiring bias and insurance as a fix45:06 Rehabilitation certificates work47:24 Housing barriers and halfway house surprises49:16 Mental health gaps post-release50:14 Medicaid's inmate exclusion52:14 Reentry waivers and continuity of care54:43 Head Start, prevention, and crime58:15 Lead poisoning and the serial-killer hypothesis1:04:08 The four reasons we punish people1:06:10 Book, podcast, and what's next for JenRequest to join my private Facebook Group, MFR Curious Insiders: https://www.facebook.com/share/g/1BAt3bpwJC/Follow me in all the places:https://www.meredithforreal.com/  https://www.instagram.com/the_curiousintrovert/ meredith@meredithforreal.comhttps://www.youtube.com/meredithforreal https://www.facebook.com/curiousintrovert

We're podcasting per the launch of the World Cup-tracking Probability Cup, but of course, just had to talk about Wednesday night's NBA Finals classic. The BIG question on my mind: Should predictors/gamblers price in the NBA's massive incentive to make this great series continue? Topics!* Knicks–Spurs Finals comeback analysis and whether San Antonio collapsed or New York surged.* How teams should manage volatility differently when protecting large leads versus playing from behind.* Debate over NBA referee incentives, league interests, and the possibility of series-extension bias.* SportsPredict's World Cup Probability Cup and using prediction contests to identify analytical talent.* Whether modern hiring should adopt a “Moneyball” approach by measuring forecasting skill instead of relying on traditional credentials.* Is the big money in studying idiot sports predictors or geniuses?Again, join our Probability Cup contest and perhaps win an iPad Pro ($1,000 value) or $200 Ticketmaster gift card. Accept the challenge and learn more at sportspredict.com/probabilitycup.House of Strauss is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.houseofstrauss.com/subscribe

This week we are getting nerdy as we explore one of the most fascinating and often overlooked aspects of Human Design: Perspective. As the world feels increasingly overwhelming and attention is pulled in countless directions, understanding your unique Perspective can help reduce mental anxiety, create healthier filters around information, and bring you back into alignment. We dive into the six Human Design Perspectives—Survival, Possibility, Power, Wanting, Probability, and Personal—and explain how each one offers a unique lens for observing the world. You'll learn why you're designed to focus on a specific aspect of life and how embracing your natural Perspective can help you feel more grounded, empowered, and mentally clear.   Key Takeaways: Why mental overwhelm often comes from trying to see and process everything instead of honoring your natural Perspective. How your Perspective reveals the unique way your mind is designed to observe the world and offer valuable insights. How each of the six Perspectives has a specific area of genius—from seeing possibilities and probabilities to understanding power dynamics, survival needs, personal impact, and human fulfillment. Why understanding your Perspective can help you create healthier boundaries around media consumption and information overload. Why trusting the observations you're naturally designed to make can help reduce anxiety and allow you to contribute your unique wisdom to the collective.   Free Mini-Courses!: FREE Transits & The Harmonic Gate Mini-Course FREE Human Design Readings 101 Masterclass Join us in Your Human Design Besties! Get our book: Your Human Design! Online Human Design Reader Training 64 Gates & Gene Keys Training Future trainings and Retreats can be found on daylunalife.com Instagram: @‌d.a.y.l.u.n.a    

Justin Spillers, founder of Real Estate Alpha, reveals how a decade of disciplined strategy paved his path to dominating Ohio's multifamily market from building a proprietary property database to mastering broker relationships and innovative outreach tactics. Imagine never missing a prime opportunity because your data is 90% accurate, and you're always top of mind with owners and brokers. Justin shares the exact methods that deliver high-conversion outreach: personalized video mailers, creative direct-owner campaigns, and the power of consistent follow-up. You'll discover how meticulous data scrubbing, the right CRM tools, and AI-enhanced processes keep his pipeline overflowing even in slow markets. Justin Spillers Partner & Manager of Real Estate Alpha Based in: Minster, Ohio Where to find them: https://www.linkedin.com/in/justinspillers/ realestatealpha.io/ Book your free demo today at bill.com/bestever and get a $100 Amazon gift card. Visit https://malabarhillcapital.com/ for more info. Podcast production done by⁠ ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dear sir Philadelphia June 1. 1776 Your favours of May 14. and 22d. are now before me. The first I shewed to Mr. Morris, as soon as I received it. The last contains Intelligence, from Hallifax of the Streights to which our Enemies are reduced, which I was very glad to learn. I am very happy to learn from you and some other of my Friends that Boston is securely fortified; but still I cannot be fully satisfied untill I hear that every unfriendly Flagg is chased out of that Harbour. Cape Ann, I am sensible is a most important Post, and if the Enemy should possess themselves of it, they might distress the Trade of the Colony to a great Degree. For which Reason I am determined to do every Thing in my Power to get it fortified at the Continental Expence. I cant be confident that I shall succeed but it shall not be my Fault if I dont. I am very glad you gave me your Opinion of the Utility of that Harbour and of the Practicability of making it secure, because I was not enough acquainted with it before to speak with Precision about it. Your Observations upon the oppressive severity of the old Regulations of Trade in subjecting Ships and Cargoes to Confiscation for the Indiscretion of a Master or Mariner, and upon the Artifice and Corruption which was introduced respecting Hospital Money, are very just: But if you consider the Resolution of Congress, and that of Virginia of the 15th. of May, the Resolutions of the two Carolinas and Georgia, each of which Colonies, are instituting new Governments, under the Authority of the People; if you consider what is doing at New York, New Jersey, Pensilvania, and even in Maryland, which are all gradually forming themselves into order to follow the Colonies to the Northward and Southward, together with the Treaties with Hesse, Brunswick and Waldeck and the Answer to the Mayor &c. of London; I believe you will be convinced that there is little Probability 2of our ever again coming under the Yoke of British Regulations of Trade. The Cords which connected the two Countries are cutt asunder, and it will not be easy to splice them again, together. I agree with you, in sentiment, that there will be little Difficulty in Trading with France and Spain, a great deal in dealing with Portugal, and some with Holland. Yet by very good Intelligence I am convinced, that there are great Merchants in the United Provinces and even in Amsterdam, who will contract to supply you with any Thing you want, whether Merchandize or military Stores by the Way of Nieuport and Ostend, two Towns which are subject to the Empress of Austria, who has never taken any public Notice of the Dispute between Britain and Us, and has never prohibited her Subjects from supplying us with any Thing. There is a Gentleman, now in this City, a Native of it, and a very worthy Man who has been lately in those Towns as well as Amsterdam, who informs me that he had many Conversations there, with Merchants of figure, and that they assured him they should be glad to contract to furnish us with any Supplies, even upon Credit, for an Interest of four Per Cent.1 Other Intelligence to the same Purpose, with Additions of more Importance, has been sent here. But the Particulars may not be mentioned. Europe seems to be in a great Commotion; altho the Appearance of a perfect Calm is affected, I think this American Contest will light up a general War. What it will end in, God alone knows, to whose wise and righteous Providence I chearfully submit, and am with great Esteem and Respect for the Family, your Friend & servant. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices