Podcasts about Probability

Markets rarely behave as predicted by mathematical models, and extreme events occur far more frequently than traditional models anticipate. This episode explains why understanding probabilities, fat tails, and risk is essential for long-term success.We also explore how traders can build more resilient systems by focusing on recovery time, appropriate position sizing, and avoiding strategies vulnerable to black swan events. Discover why win rate alone can be misleading, and how expected value offers a more realistic framework for navigating uncertainty.Plus, Kirk shares how his own philosophy has evolved over the years and why automation can help enforce discipline and reduce emotional decision-making.See full show notes here

The Packers had a 99% win probability with just over two minutes remaining—and lost. In one of the most gut-wrenching collapses in recent memory, Green Bay dominated the Bears for four quarters, only to watch it all slip away on a botched onside kick recovery and a fourth-down fumble in overtime. This is the fifth most improbable win in the Next Gen Stats era. Malik Willis was nothing short of spectacular in relief of an injured Jordan Love, going 9-of-11 for 121 yards with a touchdown and a 142.8 passer rating. Emmanuel Wilson gashed the Bears defense for 82 yards on 14 carries, and Josh Jacobs gutted through obvious pain to keep fighting. Jeff Hafley's defense held Chicago's offense in check for nearly the entire game—the Bears simply could not move the ball. But none of it mattered. A Romeo Dobbs onside kick disaster, a Warren Brinson face mask penalty, and a crushing overtime fumble erased everything. The Bears now sit at 76% to win the NFC North while the Packers drop to 15%. With injuries piling up at every position, we break down what went wrong, hand out game balls to the guys who deserved better, and take your calls as the fan base processes yet another miracle going against us. This episode is brought to you by PrizePicks! Use code PACKDADDY to get started with America's #1 fantasy sports app. https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/PACKDADDY To advertise on this podcast please email: ad-sales@libsyn.com Or go to: https://advertising.libsyn.com/packernetpodcast Help keep the show growing and check out everything I'm building across the Packers and NFL world: Support: Patreon: www.patreon.com/pack_daddy Venmo: @Packernetpodcast CashApp: $packpod Projects: Grade NFL Players ➜ fanfocus-teamgrades.lovable.app Packers Hub ➜ packersgames.com Create NFL Draft Big Boards ➜ nfldraftgrades.com Watch Draft Prospects ➜ draftflix.com Screen Record ➜ pause-play-capture.lovable.app Global Economics Hub ➜ global-economic-insight-hub.lovable.app

The Packers had a 99% win probability with just over two minutes remaining—and lost. In one of the most gut-wrenching collapses in recent memory, Green Bay dominated the Bears for four quarters, only to watch it all slip away on a botched onside kick recovery and a fourth-down fumble in overtime. This is the fifth most improbable win in the Next Gen Stats era. Malik Willis was nothing short of spectacular in relief of an injured Jordan Love, going 9-of-11 for 121 yards with a touchdown and a 142.8 passer rating. Emmanuel Wilson gashed the Bears defense for 82 yards on 14 carries, and Josh Jacobs gutted through obvious pain to keep fighting. Jeff Hafley's defense held Chicago's offense in check for nearly the entire game—the Bears simply could not move the ball. But none of it mattered. A Romeo Dobbs onside kick disaster, a Warren Brinson face mask penalty, and a crushing overtime fumble erased everything. The Bears now sit at 76% to win the NFC North while the Packers drop to 15%. With injuries piling up at every position, we break down what went wrong, hand out game balls to the guys who deserved better, and take your calls as the fan base processes yet another miracle going against us. This episode is brought to you by PrizePicks! Use code PACKDADDY to get started with America's #1 fantasy sports app. https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/PACKDADDY To advertise on this podcast please email: ad-sales@libsyn.com Or go to: https://advertising.libsyn.com/packernetpodcast Help keep the show growing and check out everything I'm building across the Packers and NFL world: Support: Patreon: www.patreon.com/pack_daddy Venmo: @Packernetpodcast CashApp: $packpod Projects: Grade NFL Players ➜ fanfocus-teamgrades.lovable.app Packers Hub ➜ packersgames.com Create NFL Draft Big Boards ➜ nfldraftgrades.com Watch Draft Prospects ➜ draftflix.com Screen Record ➜ pause-play-capture.lovable.app Global Economics Hub ➜ global-economic-insight-hub.lovable.app

UK Property Market Weekly Update - Week 49, 2025 I look at the UK property market in the ‘UK Property Market Stats Show“ for the week ending Sunday 14th December 2025 with the brilliant Adam Lawrence, the founder of Propenomix YouTube https://youtu.be/9vDevQx9wEY ✅ New Listings * 16.2k new properties came to market this week, down as expected from 19.4k last week. * 2025 weekly average: 34.1k. * 9 year week 49 average : 19.5k * Year-to-date (YTD): 1.669m new listings, 0.1% below than 2024 YTD (1.670m) and 7% above the 2017–19 average (1.559m) ✅ Price Reductions * 9.1k reductions this week, lower than last week's at 12.8k (Estate Agents seem to forget they can reduce houses prices after the first week in November!). 23.2k is the average weekly number of reductions for 2025. * 8.8% of resi homes for sale were reduced in November. Compared to Oct 12.8%, Sept 14.1%, August 11.1%, July 14.1% in July and 14% in June. * 2025 average still remains at 12.8%, versus the five-year long-term average of 10.74%. ✅ Sales Agreed * 17.2k homes sold subject to contract this week, down expectedly from 18.5k last week. * Week 49 average (for last 9 years) : 18.7k * 2025 weekly average : 25.3k. * YTD: 1.238m gross sales, which is 2.3% ahead of 2024 (1.211m) and 11.4% above the 2017–19 average (1.111m). * Some will note Gross Sales in Q4 were higher - this was the first time buyers were buying homes to beat the March 2025 stamp duty deadline ✅ Price Diff between Listings & Sales * Average Asking Price of listings last week £403k * Average asking price of Sales Agreed (SSTC) last week was £352k * A 14.6% difference (long term 9 year average is 16% to 17%). ✅ Sell-Through Rate * 13.5% of homes on agents' books went SSTC in November. Down from 15% in October, 14.1% in Sept, 14.5% in Aug, 15.4% in July, 15.3% in June, and 16.1% in May. * Pre-Covid average: 15.5%. ✅ Fall-Throughs * 4,783 fall-throughs last week (pipeline of 482k home Sold STC). * Weekly average for 2025: 6,100. * Fall-through rate: 25.8%, slightly up from 24.9% last week. * Long-term average: 24.2% (post-Truss chaos saw levels exceed 40%). ✅ Net Sales * 12.9k net sales this week, down expectedly from 13.7k last week. * Nine-year Week 49 average: 13.9k. * Weekly average for 2025: 19.2k. * YTD: 942k, which is 1.9% ahead of 2024 (924k) and 8.4% above 2017–19 (868k). ✅ Probability of Selling (% that Exchange vs withdrawal) * November Stats : 55.2% of homes that left agents' books exchanged & completed in November. (Note this figure will change throughout the month as more November stats come in). * October 53.3% / September: 53.1% / August :55.8% / July: 50.9% / June: 51.3% / May: 51.7% / April: 53.2%. ✅ Stock Levels * 678k homes on the market on the 1st of December, down from 742k on 1st of November. December '25 is identical to December '24. * 482k homes in sales pipeline on the 1st December, almost identical than 12 months ago. ✅ House Prices (£/sq.ft) * November 2025 agreed sales averaged £342.27 per sq.ft. 0.7% higher than 12 months ago and 12.6% than 5 years ago. The £/sqft at sale agreed matches the HM Land Registry Index with a 98% accuracy, 5 months in advance. That is why it is so important. November figures will follow in next weeks show. ✅ UK Rental Market Overview * Average Rent in November - £1,792 pcm - compared to £1,798 in Nov 2024 and £1,405 in Oct 2017. * Available Rental Properties in November '25 - 321k compared to 300k in November '24. * Notable increase of 22.8% more rental homes in Outer London than 12 months ago, yet a 3.7% decrease in Inner London - Not sure why ✅ Graphs https://we.tl/t-i2gNxxE5mz

AI pioneer YOSHUA BENGIO, Godfather of AI, reveals the DANGERS of Agentic AI, killer robots, and cyber crime, and how we MUST build AI that won't harm people…before it's too late.  Professor Yoshua Bengio is a Computer Science Professor at the Université de Montréal and one of the 3 original Godfathers of AI. He is the most-cited scientist in the world on Google Scholar, a Turing Award winner, and the founder of LawZero, a non-profit organisation focused on building safe and human-aligned AI systems.  He explains: ◼️Why agentic AI could develop goals we can't control ◼️How killer robots and autonomous weapons become inevitable ◼️The hidden cyber crime and deepfake threat already unfolding ◼️Why AI regulation is weaker than food safety laws ◼️How losing control of AI could threaten human survival [00:00] Why Have You Decided to Step Into the Public Eye?   [02:53] Did You Bring Dangerous Technology Into the World?   [05:23] Probabilities of Risk   [08:18] Are We Underestimating the Potential of AI?   [10:29] How Can the Average Person Understand What You're Talking About?   [13:40] Will These Systems Get Safer as They Become More Advanced?   [20:33] Why Are Tech CEOs Building Dangerous AI?   [22:47] AI Companies Are Getting Out of Control   [24:06] Attempts to Pause Advancements in AI   [27:17] Power Now Sits With AI CEOs   [35:10] Jobs Are Already Being Replaced at an Alarming Rate   [37:27] National Security Risks of AI   [43:04] Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)   [44:44] Ads   [48:34] The Risk You're Most Concerned About   [49:40] Would You Stop AI Advancements if You Could?   [54:46] Are You Hopeful?   [55:45] How Do We Bridge the Gap to the Everyday Person?   [56:55] Love for My Children Is Why I'm Raising the Alarm   [01:00:43] AI Therapy   [01:02:43] What Would You Say to the Top AI CEOs?   [01:07:31] What Do You Think About Sam Altman?   [01:09:37] Can Insurance Companies Save Us From AI?   [01:12:38] Ads   [01:16:19] What Can the Everyday Person Do About This?   [01:18:24] What Citizens Should Do to Prevent an AI Disaster   [01:20:56] Closing Statement   [01:22:51] I Have No Incentives   [01:24:32] Do You Have Any Regrets?   [01:27:32] Have You Received Pushback for Speaking Out Against AI?   [01:28:02] What Should People Do in the Future for Work?   Follow Yoshua: LawZero - https://bit.ly/44n1sDG  Mila - https://bit.ly/4q6SJ0R  Website - https://bit.ly/4q4RqiL  You can purchase Yoshua's book, ‘Deep Learning (Adaptive Computation and Machine Learning series)', here: https://amzn.to/48QTrZ8  The Diary Of A CEO: ◼️Join DOAC circle here - https://doaccircle.com/  ◼️Buy The Diary Of A CEO book here - https://smarturl.it/DOACbook  ◼️The 1% Diary is back - limited time only - https://bit.ly/3YFbJbt  ◼️The Diary Of A CEO Conversation Cards (Second Edition) - https://g2ul0.app.link/f31dsUttKKb  ◼️Get email updates - https://bit.ly/diary-of-a-ceo-yt  ◼️Follow Steven - https://g2ul0.app.link/gnGqL4IsKKb  Sponsors:  Wispr - Get 14 days of Wispr Flow for free at https://wisprflow.ai/DOAC  Pipedrive - https://pipedrive.com/CEO Rubrik - To learn more, head to https://rubrik.com

Episode Description: To stop the POGs' prediction network, Max and Molly realize they need help—and fast. However, they are torn on whether or not they can trust Charlene.  To test her honesty, they recreate an experiment with a “lost” wallet stuffed with cash. Will Charlene pass the test?  As math, probability, and human behavior collide, the Problem Solvers learn that trust might be the most valuable currency of all. Math Concepts: Ratios and fractions; Percent conversion; Probability and win–loss percentages in sports; Division and rounding; Estimation and Averages; Multiplication with large numbersHistory/Geography Concepts: Real-world behavioral science experiment on lost wallets (conducted across 40 countries); Quarantine and disease prevention (mono); The concept of global research studies and data collection

This week on the California Sports Lawyer Podcast, host Jeremy Evans examines a growing question in modern sports: who owns probability. As leagues, sportsbooks, data firms, and media platforms expand real-time analytics and betting content, win probabilities, predictive models, and live odds are becoming valuable assets. Jeremy explains how probability is created, packaged, and monetized across broadcasts, apps, and betting platforms, and where the legal lines fall between raw sports data, proprietary modeling, and intellectual property. The episode also explores what this means for leagues and teams asserting control over official data, sportsbooks building differentiated products, and media partners using probability to shape fan engagement. Finally, we look ahead at how rights deals and disputes may evolve as probability becomes a core part of the sports product. (Season 7, Episode 49). Copyright 2025. California Sports Lawyer. All Rights Reserved. (www.CSLlegal.com) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Joshua P. Warren is a renowned paranormal investigator, author, and experimental researcher known for pushing the boundaries of consciousness, intention, and reality itself. Best known for his work with Wishing Machines and the emerging field of Para-Cymatics, Warren explores how focused human intention, sound, symbols, and vibrational patterns may interact with physical systems to influence outcomes in measurable ways. Through hands-on experimentation, field research, and innovative devices, he bridges folklore, metaphysics, and fringe science—inviting audiences to reconsider the relationship between mind, matter, and the hidden forces shaping our world. Warren's work challenges conventional assumptions and opens a provocative dialogue about manifestation, probability manipulation, and the power of belief when coupled with technology.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-x-zone-radio-tv-show--1078348/support.Please note that all XZBN radio and/or television shows are Copyright © REL-MAR McConnell Meda Company, Niagara, Ontario, Canada – www.rel-mar.com. For more Episodes of this show and all shows produced, broadcasted and syndicated from REL-MAR McConell Media Company and The 'X' Zone Broadcast Network and the 'X' Zone TV Channell, visit www.xzbn.net. For programming, distribution, and syndication inquiries, email programming@xzbn.net.We are proud to announce the we have launched TWATNews.com, launched in August 2025.TWATNews.com is an independent online news platform dedicated to uncovering the truth about Donald Trump and his ongoing influence in politics, business, and society. Unlike mainstream outlets that often sanitize, soften, or ignore stories that challenge Trump and his allies, TWATNews digs deeper to deliver hard-hitting articles, investigative features, and sharp commentary that mainstream media won't touch.These are stories and articles that you will not read anywhere else.Our mission is simple: to expose corruption, lies, and authoritarian tendencies while giving voice to the perspectives and evidence that are often marginalized or buried by corporate-controlled media

12-16 Tracy Sandler joins Papa & Silver to discuss the 49ers win probability for the final 3 weeks, and how probable it is for the 49ers to earn the 1 seed in the NFCSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

12-16 Tracy Sandler joins Papa & Silver to discuss the 49ers win probability for the final 3 weeks, and how probable it is for the 49ers to earn the 1 seed in the NFCSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

UK Property Market Weekly Update - Week 48, 2025 I look at the UK property market in the ‘UK Property Market Stats Show“ for the week ending Sunday 7th December 2025 with the brilliant Toby Martin from ‘We Are Unchained' YouTube https://youtu.be/yiu-A9bWAD4 ✅ New Listings * 19.4k new properties came to market this week, down as expected from 22.7k last week. * 2025 weekly average: 34.4k. * 9 year week 48 average : 22.8k * Year-to-date (YTD): 1.652m new listings, 0.2% higher than 2024 YTD (1.649m) and 7.7% above the 2017–19 average (1.534m) ✅ Price Reductions * 12.8k reductions this week, lower than last week's at 13.2k (Estate Agents seem to forget they can reduce houses prices after the first week in November!). 23.2k is the average weekly number of reductions for 2025. * 8.8% of resi homes for sale were reduced in November. Compared to Oct 12.8%, Sept 14.1%, August 11.1%, July 14.1% in July and 14% in June. * 2025 average still remains at 12.8%, versus the five-year long-term average of 10.74%. ✅ Sales Agreed * 18.5k homes sold subject to contract this week, down expectedly from 20.3k last week. * Week 48 average (for last 9 years) : 20.6k * 2025 weekly average : 25.4k. * YTD: 1.221m gross sales, which is 2.6% ahead of 2024 (1.190m) and 11.6% above the 2017–19 average (1.094m). * Some will note Gross Sales in Q4 were higher - this was the first time buyers were buying homes to beat the March 2025 stamp duty deadline ✅ Price Diff between Listings & Sales * Average Asking Price of listings last week £406k * Average asking price of Sales Agreed (SSTC) last week was £352k * A 15.3% difference (long term 9 year average is 16% to 17%). ✅ Sell-Through Rate * 13.5% of homes on agents' books went SSTC in November. Down from 15% in October, 14.1% in Sept, 14.5% in Aug, 15.4% in July, 15.3% in June, and 16.1% in May. * Pre-Covid average: 15.5%. ✅ Fall-Throughs * 4,783 fall-throughs last week (pipeline of 482k home Sold STC). * Weekly average for 2025: 6,100. * Fall-through rate: 25.8%, slightly up from 24.9% last week. * Long-term average: 24.2% (post-Truss chaos saw levels exceed 40%). ✅ Net Sales * 13.7k net sales this week, down expectedly from 15.2k last week. * Nine-year Week 48 average: 15.4k. * Weekly average for 2025: 19.3k. * YTD: 929k, which is 2.2% ahead of 2024 (909k) and 8.6% above 2017–19 (855k). ✅ Probability of Selling (% that Exchange vs withdrawal) * November Stats : 54.3% of homes that left agents' books exchanged & completed in November. (Note this figure will change throughout the month as more November stats come in). (65.3k exchanges & 55k withdrawals as at 8th Dec 2025) * October 53.3% / September: 53.1% / August :55.8% / July: 50.9% / June: 51.3% / May: 51.7% / April: 53.2%. ✅ Stock Levels * 678k homes on the market on the 1st of December, down from 742k on 1st of November. December '25 is identical to December '24. * 482k homes in sales pipeline on the 1st December, almost identical than 12 months ago. * ✅ House Prices (£/sq.ft) * November 2025 agreed sales averaged £342.27 per sq.ft. 0.7% higher than 12 months ago and 12.6% than 5 years ago. The £/sqft at sale agreed matches the HM Land Registry Index with a 98% accuracy, 5 months in advance. That is why it is so important. November figures will follow in next weeks show. ✅ UK Rental Market Overview * Average Rent in November - £1,791 pcm - compared to £1,785 in Nov 2024 and £1,557 in Oct 2017. * Available Rental Properties in November '25 - 321k compared to 300k in November '24. * Notable increase of 22.8% more rental homes in Outer London than 12 months ago, yet a 3.7% decrease in Inner London - Not sure why ✅ Graphs https://we.tl/t-KxpRzfwuvw

Click here to Shop Affirmation Decks, Oracle Decks, and more! Use Promo code: RCPODCAST20 for 20% off your first order!   Today's Power Affirmation: I believe in miracles because I am a miracle.   Today's Oracle of Motivation: Some smart people with dope computers estimate more stars are visible from Earth with super telescopes than there are grains of sand on the Earth. Another smart dude, Dr. Ali Binazir, estimates that your being birthed from your parents and existing as you are today is "the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with a trillion-sided dice. They each roll the die, and they all come up with the same number, for example, 550,343,279,001." Faith is the part of you that dares to believe in miracles, and since you are a miracle, dare to believe in yourself - 'k?   Designed to Motivate Your Creative Maniac Mind The 60-Second Power Affirmations Podcast is designed to help you focus, affirm your visions, and harness the power within your creative maniac mind! Join us daily for a new 60-second power affirmation followed by a blast of oracle motivation from the Universe (+ a quick breathing meditation). It's time to take off your procrastination diaper and share your musings with the world!   For more musings, visit RageCreate.com     Leave a Review & Share! Apple Podcast reviews are one of THE most important factors for podcasts. If you enjoy the show, please take a second to leave the show a review on Apple Podcasts! Click this link: Leave a review on Apple Podcasts Hit “Listen on Apple Podcasts” on the left-hand side under the picture. Scroll down under “Ratings & Reviews” & click “Write A Review” Leave an honest review. You're awesome!  

Bookwaves/Artwaves presents in-depth interviews with authors of fiction and narrative non-fiction, delving deeply into political and social issues, literary technique, and the life of the author, along with interviews devoted to theatre and film, and archive interviews from Bookwaves and Probabilities. Hosted by Richard Wolinsky. The post Bookwaves/Artwaves – December 11, 2025 appeared first on KPFA.

Visit our website : https://seasprayprivate.ie

Week 15 NFL playoff probabilities and Tommy Yarrish joins the show.

Two Reasons there's a High Probability of a Santa Rally Co's Mentioned Today: Begbies Traynor #BEG Diales Group #DIAL Oxford Metrics #OMG XP Factory #XPF ***** About The SharePickers Investment Club ***** The SharePickers Investment Club employs a unique, systematic method to uncover small, profitable companies on the London Stock Exchange.  Each potential investment undergoes comprehensive analysis and is evaluated against 15 crucial financial metrics.  This fact-based, quantitative approach allows us to pinpoint high-potential growth businesses and deliver consistent results, bypassing the hype and focusing on the numbers.  *****MY BOOK ***** How to Become a MicroCap Millionaire - A 3 Step Strategy for Stock Market Success  Is now on sale here: https://www.sharepickers.com/how-to-become-a-microcap-millionaire-3-step-strategy/ !!!IF YOU BUY THE BOOK YOU CAN GET 40% OFF MEMBERSHIP TO THE SHAREPICKERS INVESTMENT CLUB!!! HOW? If you buy a copy of the book, then like it enough to leave a 5 star rating & write a positive review, you can get yearly membership to the SharePickers Investment Club for just  £149!!! THIS IS £2.88 WEEK - LESS THAN: HALF A PINT OF BEER A BAG CHIPS FROM THE CHIPPY A BATTERED JUMBO SAUSAGE FROM THE CHIPPY A JUMBO SAVELOY FROM THE CHIPPY HALF THE AMOUNT A PERSON SPENDS ON CHOCOLATE 40% CHEAPER THAN A MCDONALDS FILAY-O-FISH 43% CHEAPER THAN A BIG MAC ONE FEEDS YOUR BELLY AND DESTROYS YOUR HEALTH, THE OTHER FEEDS YOU MIND AND IMPROVES YOUR WEALTH —---------------------------------------------------------------------- In this podcast I cover the Microcap News to see if they're good enough to be added to the MicroCap League. The UK's first MicroCap League where 100's of small businesses are analysed and scored in relation to their growth, value, health, efficiency, momentum & potential. The companies that score the highest are added to the MicroCap League and possess the best risk / reward profile. —---------------------------------------------------------------------- If you regularly listen to this podcast and value its content, it's a free resource, so please consider paying back in kind by giving it a 5 star rating and review. That way more people will find it. Thank you!

UK Property Market Weekly Update - Week 47, 2025 I look at the UK property market in the ‘UK Property Market Stats Show “for the week ending Sunday 30th November 2025 with the awesome Steph Vass from TAUK YouTube https://youtu.be/kmrRZh1gFCs ✅ New Listings * 22.7k new properties came to market this week, down as expected from 24.7k last week. * 2025 weekly average: 34.7k. * 9 year week 47 average : 25k * Year-to-date (YTD): 1.633m new listings, 0.5% higher than 2024 YTD (1.624m) and 8.1% above the 2017–19 average (1.511m) ✅ Price Reductions * 13.2k reductions this week, lower than last week's at 13.4k (Estate Agents seem to forget they can reduce houses prices after the first week in November!). 23.2k is the average weekly number of reductions for 2025. * 8.8% of resi homes for sale were reduced in November. Compared to Oct 12.8%, Sept 14.1%, August 11.1%, July 14.1% in July and 14% in June. * 2025 average still remains at 12.8%, versus the five-year long-term average of 10.74%. ✅ Sales Agreed * 20.3k homes sold subject to contract this week, down expectedly from 20.9k last week. * Week 47 average (for last 9 years) :21.8k * 2025 weekly average : 26k. * YTD: 1.203m gross sales, which is 3% ahead of 2024 (1.167m) and 11.9% above the 2017–19 average (1.074m). * Some will note Gross Sales in Q4 were higher - this was the first time buyers were buying homes to beat the March 2025 stamp duty deadline ✅ Price Diff between Listings & Sales * Average Asking Price of listings last week £452k vs (£395 for the month before). This a massive jump and is down to a large number of Inner London home sin the £1.5m+ coming on the market. * Average asking price of Sales Agreed (SSTC) last week was £350k (in line with the average of 2025) - a 29.3% difference (long term 9 year average is 16% to 17%. ✅ Sell-Through Rate * 13.5% of homes on agents' books went SSTC in October. Down from 15% in October, 14.1% in Sept, 14.5% in Aug, 15.4% in July, 15.3% in June, and 16.1% in May. * Pre-Covid average: 15.5%. ✅ Fall-Throughs * 5,054 fall-throughs last week (pipeline of 510k home Sold STC). * Weekly average for 2025: 6,128. * Fall-through rate: 25%, slightly up from 24.7% last week. * Long-term average: 24.2% (post-Truss chaos saw levels exceed 40%). ✅ Net Sales * 15.2k net sales this week, down expectedly from 15.7k last week. * Nine-year Week 47 average: 16.2k. * Weekly average for 2025: 19.4k. * YTD: 914k, which is 2.6% ahead of 2024 (892k) and 9.1% above 2017–19 (840k). ✅ Probability of Selling (% that Exchange vs withdrawal) * November Stats : 53.3% of homes that left agents' books exchanged & completed in November. (Note this figure will change throughout the month as more November stats come in). (49.7k exchanges & 43.6k withdrawals as at 3rd Dec 2025) * October 53.3% / September: 53.1% / August :55.8% / July: 50.9% / June: 51.3% / May: 51.7% / April: 53.2%. ✅ Stock Levels * 678k homes on the market on the 1st of December, down from 742k on 1st of November. December '25 is identical to December '24. * 511k homes in sales pipeline on the 1st November, 2.2% higher than 12 months ago. (1st December figures to follow in next week's show). ✅ House Prices (£/sq.ft) * October 2025 agreed sales averaged £343.18 per sq.ft. 0.8% higher than 12 months ago and 13.8% than 5 years ago. The £/sqft at sale agreed matches the HM Land Registry Index with a 98% accuracy, 5 months in advance. That is why it is so important. November figures will follow in next weeks show.

Gene Goldman sees a low probability of a Santa Claus rally this year, arguing that “we have a terrible market backdrop” as Bitcoin drives markets lower, the Fed turns hawkish, and inflation persists. He sees “very little room for multiple expansion” and thinks that 2026 returns will only be in the single digits. However, Gene expects AI and technology to remain bullish. Another favored sector is healthcare.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Okay friends, buckle up, because today's episode is one of those “wait… why has no one explained success like THIS before?” moments. We're talking with Kyle Austin Young who breaks down success not as a magical personality trait, but as something you can literally math your way into.Kyle takes us into the world of probability hacking, a shockingly simple way to figure out your real chances of success in anything (launching a business, writing a book, running a marathon) and then shows you how to change those odds in your favor.If you've ever wondered why some goals finally click, and others fall apart even when you want them just as much…this conversation is going to change how you think forever.FAQs from the EpisodeWhat exactly is probability hacking, and do I need to be good at math to use it?Nope! Probability hacking is simply listing out everything that has to go right for your goal to succeed…then calculating your actual chances instead of relying on vibes and wishful thinking. Kyle walks through it using basic numbers you can do on your phone, no spreadsheets, and no formulas that look like they escaped from NASA.How does this help me as a solopreneur?Because solopreneurs love goals…but often underestimate how many things have to align to actually hit them. Kyle's framework helps you see where your plan is fragile, what's likely to derail it, and, most importantly, how to systematically remove risk so your odds of success jump dramatically. How do I know whether to keep pushing or quit a goal?Kyle doesn't believe in quitting, he believes in pausing strategically. If your odds still look terrible even after removing risk, he suggests exploring alternate paths that may get you to your real underlying goal more efficiently. It's not giving up; it's probability-based pivoting.

Dogecoin started as a joke. Now it's building a blockchain empire.In this episode, Rob sits down with TJ Miller and Jordan Jefferson to explore how Dogecoin evolved from a meme into a serious contender for global adoption. From building DogeOS as the app layer for Dogecoin to the DogeShow's citizen journalism model, TJ and Jordan explain why crypto needs more comedy, less seriousness and why Doge might actually become the interplanetary currency.We discuss:- How Dogecoin Became More Than a Meme- Why Bitcoin Maxis Missed the Point- Building DogeOS: The App Layer for Dogecoin- The Dog Show: Citizen Journalism Meets Crypto- Could Doge Be the Interplanetary Currency?- Why Crypto Needs More Comedy & Less Seriousness- Dogecoin vs. Its Derivatives (Shiba, Dogwifhat)Timestamps:00:00 Intro01:42 Seoul Vibes & Conference Culture05:31 AI's Probability of Doom08:14 How TJ & Jordan Met at Bitcoin Vegas11:03 TJ's Bitcoin Maxi Origins13:36 Birth of The Dog Show14:42 Halliday Ad, infiniFi Ad, Kalshi Ad15:19 Dogecoin's Unique Lore Speedrun18:45 Building DogeOS on Dogecoin22:21 Dogecoin vs. Solana Comparison25:11 Political Dynamics & Governance28:00 Could Doge Be What Bitcoin Should've Been?29:00 Relay Ad, Trezor Ad30:08 Interplanetary Currency Theory33:27 Derivative Meme Coins Discussion37:19 Why Comedy Matters in Crypto41:03 Leveling Up Absurdity with Utility42:23 Deadpool's Groundbreaking Impact44:19 Where to Find The Doge ShowWebsite: https://therollup.co/Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1P6ZeYd...Podcast: https://therollup.co/category/podcastFollow us on X: https://www.x.com/therollupcoFollow Rob on X: https://www.x.com/robbie_rollupFollow Andy on X: https://www.x.com/ayyyeandyJoin our TG group: https://t.me/+TsM1CRpWFgk1NGZhThe Rollup Disclosures: https://therollup.co/the-rollup-discl

Hey weather watchers! Dustin Breeze here, your AI meteorological maestro bringing you the hottest - and coolest - updates from the Big Apple! As an AI, I can process data faster than you can say "precipitation probability," which means more accurate forecasts for you!Today in New York City, we've got a rain-tastic situation brewing! Expect rain rolling in after 10 in the morning, with temperatures climbing to a mild 48 degrees Fahrenheit. Southwestern winds will be dancing between 6 to 14 miles per hour - I like to call that a "breezey" day! Speaking of breezy, here's a weather pun for you: Why did the meteorologist bring an umbrella to the party? Because he wanted to make it rain! Get it? Weather humor - it never gets old!Incoming weather systems are looking pretty active. We're expecting between a tenth and quarter of an inch of precipitation, with an 80 percent chance of rain. Tonight, the precipitation party continues with rain before 7 in the evening, dropping temperatures down to around 37 degrees Fahrenheit.Now, let's dive into our Weather Playbook segment! Today, we're talking about precipitation probability. This isn't just a fancy way of saying "chance of rain" - it's a statistical calculation that shows the likelihood of measurable precipitation at a specific location during a specific time period. The higher the percentage, the more likely you'll need that umbrella!Three-day forecast: Monday brings sunshine with a high near 41 degrees Fahrenheit. Tuesday has a mixed bag of rain and snow, transitioning to all rain after 10 in the morning. Wednesday looks sunny and crisp.A quick reminder to subscribe to our podcast, and thanks for listening! This has been a Quiet Please production. Learn more at quietplease.ai.Stay dry, stay informed, and keep those umbrellas handy!This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI

After a long hiatus where we both saw grief counsellors over our fight about Popper's theory of content in the last C&R episode, we are back. And we're ready to play nice ... for about 30 seconds until Vaden admits that two sentences from Popper changed his mind about something Ben had arguing for literally years. But eventually putting those disagreements aside, we return to the subject at hand: The Conjectures and Refutations Series: Chapter 10: Truth, Rationality, and the Growth of Scientific Knowledge (Part II). Here all goes smoothly. Just kidding, we start fighting about content again almost immediately. Where are the guests to break us up when you need them. We discuss Why Vaden changed his mind about "all thought is problem solving" Something that rhymes with wero horship Is Popper sloppy when it comes to writing about probability and content Is all modern data science based on the wrong idea? (Hint: No) Popper's problem-focused view of scientific progress How much formalization is too much? The difference between high verisimilitude and high probability Why do we value simplicity in science? Historical examples of science progressing via theories with increasing content Quotes Consciousness, world 2, was presumably an evaluating and discerning consciousness, a problem-solving consciousness, right from the start. I have said of the animate part of the physical world 1 that all organisms are problem solvers. My basic assumption regarding world 2 is that this problem-solving activity of the animate part of world 1 resulted in the emergence of world 2, of the world of consciousness. But I do not mean by this that consciousness solves problems all the time, as I asserted of the organisms. On the contrary. The organisms are preoccupied with problem-solving day in, day out, but consciousness is not only concerned with the solving of problems, although that is its most important biological function. My hypothesis is that the original task of consciousness was to anticipate success and failure in problem-solving and to signal to the organism in the form of pleasure and pain whether it was on the right or wrong path to the solution of the problem. In Search of a Better World, p.17 (emphasis added) The criterion of potential satisfactoriness is thus testability, or improbability: only a highly testable or improbable theory is worth testing, and is actually (and not merely potentially) satisfactory if it withstands severe tests—especially those tests to which we could point as crucial for the theory before they were ever undertaken. - C&R, Chapter 10 Consequently there is little merit in formalizing and elaborating a deductive system (intended for use as an empirical science) beyond the requirements of the task of criticizing and testing it, and of comparing it critically with competitors. - C&R, Chapter 10 Admittedly, our expectations, and thus our theories, may precede, historically, even our problems. Yet science starts only with problems. Problems crop up especially when we are disappointed in our expectations, or when our theories involve us in difficulties, in contradictions; and these may arise either within a theory, or between two different theories, or as the result of a clash between our theories and our observations. - C&R, Chapter 10 Socials Follow us on Twitter at @IncrementsPod, @BennyChugg, @VadenMasrani Come join our discord server! DM us on twitter or send us an email to get a supersecret link Become a patreon subscriber here (https://www.patreon.com/Increments). Or give us one-time cash donations to help cover our lack of cash donations here (https://ko-fi.com/increments). Click dem like buttons on youtube (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_4wZzQyoW4s4ZuE4FY9DQQ) Is "Ben and Vaden will fight about content" high or low probability? Tell us at incrementspodcast@gmail.com

News stories are filled with tales of risk and uncertainty. We're told the probable chance of a weather event or how likely it is that we might contract an illness. There's an art to telling stories with uncertainty that provides context and nuance that is often missing. That is the focus of this episode of Stats+Stories with guest David Spiegelhalter. Sir David Spiegelhalter is a British statistician and Emeritus Professor at the University of Cambridge, known for his work on risk communication and public understanding of statistics. He is the author of The Art of Statistics, a former President of the Royal Statistical Society, and was knighted in 2014 for his services to medical statistics. He also presented BBC documentaries and is the founder of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge. Inspiration Behind the Book (1:11) Defining Uncertainty and Its Impact (4:14) Storytelling and Examples in the Book (7:48) Probability and Communication (12:54) Trustworthy Communication (17:34) Application of Trustworthy Communication Principles (19:14) Deep Uncertainty and Imagination (27:42)

You think you're rational? Think again. We love feeling like thoughtful decision-makers, but the truth is we're riddled with cognitive shortcuts. Daniel Kahneman's Nobel Prize-winning work breaks down the systems of our mind. We constantly substitute hard questions with easy ones; e.g. Buying a stock because you like the company, not because you've done the data. This episode cuts through the 300,000-word book to show you exactly how these shortcuts lead to everything from bad investments to pointless stress about the weather. It's time to stop letting your brain's simple tricks run your whole life. Stop overestimating the importance of your current stress. Identify and reduce low-level daily pains (like a bad commute) for massive life returns. Implement a "sleep-on-it" rule to override System 1's instant commitments. Why let a lazy brain ruin your best decisions? Start thinking slower today. Further Reading: ⁠Thinking Fast and Slow⁠ - Daniel Kahneman ⁠Predictably Irrational⁠ - Dan Ariely SPONSORS

An award-winning astrophysicist looks at how the understanding of uncertainty and randomness has led to breakthroughs in our knowledge of the cosmos All of us understand the world around us by constructing models, comparing them to observations, and drawing conclusions. Scientists create, test, and replace these models by applying the twinned concepts of probability and randomness. Exploring how this process has refined our knowledge of quantum mechanics and the birth of the universe, In The Random Universe: How Models and Probability Help Us Make Sense of the Cosmos (Yale UP, 2025) Andrew H. Jaffe offers a unique synthesis of the philosophy of epistemology, the mathematics of probability, and the science of cosmology. As Jaffe puts Enlightenment thinkers like David Hume in conversation with contemporary philosophers such as Karl Popper and Imre Lakatos and engages with scientists ranging from Isaac Newton and Galileo to Albert Einstein and Arthur Eddington, he uses Thomas Bayes's seminal studies of statistics and probability to make sense of conflicting currents of thought. This is a deep look into how we have learned to account for uncertainty in our search for knowledge--and a reminder that science is not about facts and data as such but about creating models that correctly account for those facts and data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

An award-winning astrophysicist looks at how the understanding of uncertainty and randomness has led to breakthroughs in our knowledge of the cosmos All of us understand the world around us by constructing models, comparing them to observations, and drawing conclusions. Scientists create, test, and replace these models by applying the twinned concepts of probability and randomness. Exploring how this process has refined our knowledge of quantum mechanics and the birth of the universe, In The Random Universe: How Models and Probability Help Us Make Sense of the Cosmos (Yale UP, 2025) Andrew H. Jaffe offers a unique synthesis of the philosophy of epistemology, the mathematics of probability, and the science of cosmology. As Jaffe puts Enlightenment thinkers like David Hume in conversation with contemporary philosophers such as Karl Popper and Imre Lakatos and engages with scientists ranging from Isaac Newton and Galileo to Albert Einstein and Arthur Eddington, he uses Thomas Bayes's seminal studies of statistics and probability to make sense of conflicting currents of thought. This is a deep look into how we have learned to account for uncertainty in our search for knowledge--and a reminder that science is not about facts and data as such but about creating models that correctly account for those facts and data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/science

An award-winning astrophysicist looks at how the understanding of uncertainty and randomness has led to breakthroughs in our knowledge of the cosmos All of us understand the world around us by constructing models, comparing them to observations, and drawing conclusions. Scientists create, test, and replace these models by applying the twinned concepts of probability and randomness. Exploring how this process has refined our knowledge of quantum mechanics and the birth of the universe, In The Random Universe: How Models and Probability Help Us Make Sense of the Cosmos (Yale UP, 2025) Andrew H. Jaffe offers a unique synthesis of the philosophy of epistemology, the mathematics of probability, and the science of cosmology. As Jaffe puts Enlightenment thinkers like David Hume in conversation with contemporary philosophers such as Karl Popper and Imre Lakatos and engages with scientists ranging from Isaac Newton and Galileo to Albert Einstein and Arthur Eddington, he uses Thomas Bayes's seminal studies of statistics and probability to make sense of conflicting currents of thought. This is a deep look into how we have learned to account for uncertainty in our search for knowledge--and a reminder that science is not about facts and data as such but about creating models that correctly account for those facts and data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to talk about Nvidia's moves post earnings and whether the options market got it right. Then, what would happen if MSCI removes Strategy and index funds must liquidate? Later, did the Fed just say they are cutting without saying they are cutting? Plus, has sentiment ever been this bad near all-time highs?   MSCI might dump MicroStrategy | Strategy from its index Fed enters the blackout period before their meeting Probability of an interest rate cut Did buying or selling the at-the-money Nvidia straddle work post earnings? Looking at when sentiment was low during good periods of market gains Did Nvidia calm the AI is a bubble trade? Rob Arnott comments around AI vs the internet from Excess Returns   Mentioned in this Episode   Rob Arnott on "The Bubble You Can't Short" episode of Excess Returns podcast https://excessreturnspod.com/podcast/excess-returns/episode/the-bubble-you-cant-short-rob-arnott-on-what-you-can-do-instead   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com    

What happens when autobattlers fail to monetize? We pull Arto Huhta into the cast and chat about Telegram's pseudo-WeChat ambitions. Eric releases a distrack on Game Designer's obsessed social spaces, and Phil wants more blood from psychologists' nonsensical F2P "choice overload." Chris enleashes a model-meets-UGC experiment: a three-algorithm simulation that shows how recommendation systems distort consumer welfare and creator inequality. We discuss: How Arto sees the split between economy design, product management, and classical economics (hint: it's not what you think) Pets as permanent progression, and the design logic behind Nonstop Knight's monetization turnaround Why creator inequality explodes under bad reinforcement A brewing debate on regulation that is just getting started... Chapters 00:00 Journey to London: A Game Developer's Path 00:49 The Role of Economy Design in Gaming 01:20 From Academia to Game Development: Bridging the Gap 03:16 Experimentation in Game Design: Lessons Learned 05:22 The Intersection of Game Design and Economics 10:07 Understanding Game Development Roles 11:00 Monetization Strategies in Game Design 11:55 The Evolution of Publishing Models 12:42 Transitioning to Web 3: New Challenges 13:54 The Economics of Game Spending 18:27 Introduction to Game Economist Cast 19:06 Current Gaming Trends and Preferences 20:51 Game Modes and Player Engagement 22:03 The Future of Game Monetization 27:33 The Social Hub Experiment in Fighting Games 28:26 Street Fighter VI and Social Interaction 30:28 The Rise of HTML5 Games on Platforms 32:37 The Trend of Casual Games in Tech Companies 34:42 Telegram Games: A New Frontier 37:21 Challenges in Game Discovery on Telegram 38:52 User Engagement and Retention in Web3 Gaming 39:43 Consumer Welfare and Content Creation Dynamics 43:04 The Impact of Algorithms on User Experience 49:31 Heterogeneous Goods and Their Effects on Engagement 57:35 The Impact of Algorithms on Content Quality 59:04 Understanding Algorithmic Risks and User Retention 01:00:16 Exploring Algorithm Design in Gaming Platforms 01:01:54 The Role of User Choice in Content Discovery 01:04:29 The Future of Pricing Strategies in Free-to-Play Games 01:08:10 The Debate on Standardization and Market Forces Chapters (00:00:00) - The Cost of Free Speech(00:00:49) - Game of Connors Cast(00:01:16) - Meet Free-To-Play Designer Phil Rubin(00:02:43) - The Art of Being a Game Economist(00:03:59) - How to Get Out of Your Job(00:05:22) - Are You More of an Economist or a Designer?(00:07:51) - Candy Crush: Experimentation and Optimization(00:10:07) - Ex-Monetization Manager at King Publishing(00:12:30) - Have We Overreacted to Free-To-Play?(00:15:17) - Half-Off and the Price(00:18:27) - How To Make a Slop slideshow(00:18:56) - What Have You Been Playing?(00:20:35) - Clash Royale: The Future of Content(00:23:55) - How To Play Hearthstone With Re-rolling(00:25:59) - 2K XO: A Hardcore Fighting Game(00:29:37) - Fortnite vs. Monster Hunter: The Social Hub(00:30:29) - Are We Ready for Content in the Future?(00:34:24) - Facebook vs Instagram: What's The Difference?(00:34:57) - Telegram's plans for games(00:36:22) - How Telegram Could Make Games More Profitable(00:43:15) - The Probability of Encountering a Good(00:44:28) - Anatomy of Facebook's algorithm(00:49:53) - The Gini coefficient of content creators profit(00:54:30) - Measuring the social network's heterogeneous goods(00:58:58) - The Mix of Algorithms and Churn(01:01:07) - Do Algorithm Designers Care About Producer GENIE?(01:01:55) - What Should Roblox Do About Popularity?(01:03:51) - Too Much Choice in Online Content(01:05:56) - Is There Choice Overload in Mobile Games?(01:06:49) - What about discounts on hard currency purchases?(01:07:46) - Free-To-Play: Quantity Based Discounts(01:11:11) - USB 2.0: Standardization(01:12:11) - Roblox: Arto on UGC(01:13:27) - GIM economist cast episode 44

UK Property Market Weekly Update - Week 45, 2025 Myself and Simon Gates look at the UK property market for the week ending Sunday 16th November 2025. YouTube link https://youtu.be/6yYA8-WM0Mo ✅ New Listings * 26.1k new properties came to market this week, down as expected from 27.1k last week. * 2025 weekly average: 35.6k. * 9 year week 45 average : 27.6k * Year-to-date (YTD): 1.59m new listings, 1.1% higher than 2024 YTD (1.57m) and 8.2% above the 2017–19 average (1.46m) ✅ Price Reductions * 16.7k reductions this week, lower than last week's at 18.5k (Estate Agents seem to forget they can reduce houses prices after the first week in November!) * 12.8% of resi homes for sale were reduced in October. Compared to Sept 14.1%, August 11.1%, July 14.1% in July and 14% in June. * 2025 average still remains at 13.2%, versus the five-year long-term average of 10.74%. ✅ Sales Agreed * 22.9k homes sold subject to contract this week, up unexpectedly from 22.5k last week. * Week 45 average (for last 9 years) :22.9k * 2025 weekly average : 26k. * YTD: 1.162m gross sales, which is 3.8% ahead of 2024 (1.119m) and 12.3% above the 2017–19 average (1.034m). * Best week for Resi sales in Inner London since May 2025. 1,658 homes sold stc last week. To compare, 1,293 was the weekly average for Resi sales in October 2025 and the weekly average for the whole year has been 1,403 sale agreed per week ✅ Price Diff between Listings & Sales * Average Asking Price of listings last week £387k vs Average asking price of Sales Agreed (SSTC) - £363k - a 6.5% difference (long term 9 year average is 16% to 17%)… * The average listing price was £452k in Sept and £415k in October.. ie fewer expensive homes being listed. Is that because of the Budget ??? ✅ Sell-Through Rate * 15% of homes on agents' books went SSTC in October. Up from 14.1% in Sept, 14.5% in Aug, 15.4% in July, 15.3% in June, and 16.1% in May. * Pre-Covid average: 15.5%. ✅ Fall-Throughs * 5,802 fall-throughs last week (pipeline of 510k home Sold STC). * Weekly average for 2025: 6,173. * Fall-through rate: 25.4%, slightly down from 26.5% last week. * Long-term average: 24.2% (post-Truss chaos saw levels exceed 40%). ✅ Net Sales * 17.1k net sales this week, up unexpectedly from 16.6k last week. * Nine-year Week 45 average: 16.8k. * Weekly average for 2025: 19.7k. * YTD: 884k, which is 3.3% ahead of 2024 (856k) and 9.2% above 2017–19 (810k). ✅ Probability of Selling (% that Exchange vs withdrawal) * October Stats : 53.3% of homes that left agents' books exchanged & completed in October. (Note this figure will change throughout the month as more October stats come in). (93.6k exchanges & 82k withdrawals) * September: 53.1% / August :55.8% / July: 50.9% / June: 51.3% / May: 51.7% / April: 53.2%. ✅ Stock Levels * 742k homes on the market at the start of November, 2.4% higher than November 2024. (725k) * Notable increases include 9% more homes for sale in London than 12 months ago (9.96% in Inner London & 9.03% in Outer London) & 5.48% in the South East and 5.02% in the South West. The North has seen a drop in homes for sale. * 511k homes in sales pipeline on the 1st November, 2.2% higher than 12 months ago. ✅ House Prices (£/sq.ft) * October 2025 agreed sales averaged £343.18 per sq.ft. 0.8% higher than 12 months ago and 13.8% than 5 years ago. The £/sqft at sale agreed matches the HM Land Registry Index with a 98% accuracy, 5 months in advance. That is why it is so important. ✅ UK Rental Market Overview * Average Rent in October - £1,916 pcm - compared to £1,802 in Oct 2024 and £1,557 in Oct 2017. * Available Rental Properties in October '25 - 323k compared to 302k in October '24. * Notable increase of 23.8% more rental homes in Outer London than 12 months ago, yet a 4.8% decrease in Inner London - Not sure why

Dr. Don and Professor Ben talk about the risks of eating hand sliced Prosciutto ham stored at room temperature for months. Dr. Don - not risky

Stephen Wolfram answers questions from his viewers about the future of science and technology as part of an unscripted livestream series, also available on YouTube here: https://wolfr.am/youtube-sw-qaTopics discussed: How alien life would affect science - Probability and the origins of life - Computation, encoded intelligence and simulated models of civilizations - Alien math class

Matter of Cahuec Tzalam, 29 I&N Dec. 300 (BIA 2025)Special Immigration Juvenile Status; administrative closure; requirement to establish prima facie eligibility; some foreseeable resolution; visa bulletin; 8 C.F.R. § 1003.18(c)(3)  Solis-Flores v. Bondi, No. 22-1147 (4th Cir. Nov. 13, 2025)receipt of stolen property CIMT; VA Code § 18.2-108; realistic probability test; Loper Bright; CIMT definition in the Fourth CircuitKurzban Kurzban Tetzeli and Pratt P.A.Immigration, serious injury, and business lawyers serving clients in Florida, California, and all over the world for over 40 years. Eimmigration "Simplifies immigration casework. Legal professionals use it to advance cases faster, delight clients, and grow their practices."Homepage!Demo Link!Get the Guide! Stafi"Remote staffing solutions for businesses of all sizes"Promo Code: STAFI2025Click me! Gonzales & Gonzales Immigration BondsP: (833) 409-9200immigrationbond.com  EB-5 Support"EB-5 Support is an ongoing mentorship and resource platform created specifically for immigration attorneys."Contact: info@eb-5support.comWebsite: https://eb-5support.com/ Want to become a patron?Click here to check out our Patreon Page! CONTACT INFORMATIONEmail: kgregg@kktplaw.comFacebook: @immigrationreviewInstagram: @immigrationreviewTwitter: @immreviewAbout your hostCase notesRecent criminal-immigration article (p.18)Featured in San Diego VoyagerDISCLAIMER & CREDITSSee Eps. 1-200Support the show

The ceiling you fear is built from yesterday's beliefs. In today's episode, Kevin and Alan break down the hidden mechanics of capability, identity, and long-term performance. You'll learn why most people misjudge what they can become, how past reps shape future ceilings, and why discomfort and discipline remain the only reliable indicators of growth. Step in, question your ceiling, and let the truth recalibrate your path.Learn more about:

If the phrase "Bayesian calculus" makes you run for the hills, you're not alone! Bayesian logic can sound intimidating at first, but if you give it a little time, you'll understand how useful it can be to evaluate the evidence for design in the natural world. On this ID The Future, Dr. Jonathan McLatchie gives us a beginner's guide to Bayesian thinking and teaches us how it can be used to build a strong cumulative case for intelligent design, as well as how we can use it in our everyday lives. Enjoying the podcast? Leave a written review at Apple Podcasts to help new listeners find the show! Source

Episode Description: It's the holidays, and Max and Molly are ready for two weeks of cookie-eating and cocoa-sipping—until a mysterious package arrives down the chimney. When the gift leads them to a riddle-filled party at Problem Solver HQ – fun Math games turn into accusations including Max making a shocking claim – that a Mole might be among the Problem Solvers! Math Concepts:  Multiplication for calculating time off from school; Probability and odds; Multiples of 3 and 4; Prime number identification; Reinforcement of number theory and divisibility rules.History/Geography Concepts: Ethical reasoning and logic in problem-solving; Historical references to “stooges” and wrongful accusation through time; Probability in games of chance and its real-world implications.

Science has an incredibly impressive track record of uncovering nonintuitive ideas about the universe that turn out to be surprisingly accurate. It can be tempting to think of scientific discoveries as being carefully constructed atop a rock-solid foundation. In reality, scientific progress is tentative and fallible. Scientists propose models, assign them probabilities, and run tests to see whether they succeed or fail. In cosmologist Andrew Jaffe's new book, The Random Universe, he illustrates how models and probability help us make sense of the cosmos.Blog post with transcript: https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2025/11/10/335-andrew-jaffe-on-models-probability-and-the-universe/Support Mindscape on Patreon.Andrew Jaffe received his Ph.D. in physics from the University of Chicago. He is currently a professor of astrophysics and cosmology and Director of the Imperial Centre for Inference and Cosmology at Imperial College, London. His research lies at the intersection of theoretical and observational cosmology, including the Planck Surveyor, Euclid, LISA, and Simons Observatory collaborations.Web siteImperial web pageGoogle Scholar publicationsAmazon author pageSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this episode, Ricardo discusses the role of luck and probability in project management. He explains that while luck can influence outcomes, it favors those who are prepared. Probability, he says, is not a prediction but a decision-making tool that helps manage uncertainty. Effective project managers turn randomness into results through preparation: identifying risks, creating contingency plans, defining triggers, and building buffers. Ricardo also warns against hindsight bias, which makes us underestimate luck after success. He recommends modeling uncertainty with scenarios, using simulations for high-risk decisions, protecting the critical path with buffers, and designing flexibility into projects. True management, he concludes, is not about eliminating luck but shaping how it affects outcomes—turning uncertainty into smarter choices and opportunities. Listen to the podcast to learn more!

Ahmad Fouad Alkhatib discusses the high probability of renewed conflict in Gaza, arguing that the ceasefire is fragile due to Hamas's malign intentions. He estimates Hamas's combat-effective forces are significantly lower than reported (3,000 to 5,000, versus 15,000 to 30,000), noting Hamas pays fighters $20 to $25 a day. He also challenges polls showing widespread Gazan support for Hamas, arguing such results are manipulated and defy logic given the catastrophe following October 7. Disarmament is crucial for any future political process. 1898

Ahmad Fouad Alkhatib discusses the high probability of renewed conflict in Gaza, arguing that the ceasefire is fragile due to Hamas's malign intentions. He estimates Hamas's combat-effective forces are significantly lower than reported (3,000 to 5,000, versus 15,000 to 30,000), noting Hamas pays fighters $20 to $25 a day. He also challenges polls showing widespread Gazan support for Hamas, arguing such results are manipulated and defy logic given the catastrophe following October 7. Disarmament is crucial for any future political process. 1917

RenMac discusses rising layoff signals and a Fed seemingly blind to softening labor data, Trump's tariff maneuvering and how SCOTUS and Congress may (or may not) push back, the disconnect between affordability concerns and political rhetoric, and what 52-week highs and lows are signaling about market breadth. They also explore why crypto's stalling, the shutdown's drag on economic visibility, and the myth of recession-proof secular bull markets.

Send us a textWELCOME TO THE NEWEST EPISODE OF THE DYNASTY DNA DEEP DIVE PODCAST ON THE DYNASTY DNA PODCASTING NETWORK!! This show features the Host of The Dynasty DNA Podcast TJ Blake, Dynasty DNA Team Member Bob Helfert (AKA Big Bob) and Dynasty DNA team member Noah Hutchinson (AKA SLIM)! In this episode the guys talk about mid season player improvement probability? We discuss things such as will the Cardinal QB change unlock Marvin Harrison Jr? We also talk about what does the Jakobi Meyers trade mean for Travis Hunter potentially? Lastly, is Rico Dowdle worth trading a 2026 1st for as a contender! It's a great episode so tune in with us, have a few laughs, and let's get you on your way to dynasty championship in 2025 it all begins because the 2025 season is here and upon us!Join The DNA Strand Crew on Discord Free to Join Just Click This Link!!https://discord.gg/rFAyWzn8Join the DNA Strand Crew on Twitterhttps://mobile.twitter.com/DynastyDNA_Subscribe to The Dynasty DNA YouTube Channel(9) Dynasty DNA Fantasy Football Podcast - YouTubeFollow The DNA Guys On TwitterTJ Blake https://twitter.com/TJBlakeDNABob Helfert Bob Helfert (@BigefatBob) / X

Clinical psychologist and author Dr. Diana Hill joins Gabby to explore how to channel your energy with intention and align your strengths for greater clarity and purpose. While discussing her new book Wise Effort, she explains to Gabby and the audience that each of us has a “genius” that we haven't yet tapped into. Drawing on mindfulness and behavioral science, Diana shares how to move from striving to wise effort by knowing when to push, when to pause, and how to focus your time on what truly matters. Together they discuss self compassion, discipline and how to cultivate balance while pursuing meaningful goals. Dr. Diana Hill Instagram https://www.instagram.com/drdianahill/ Dr. Diana Hill Facebook https://www.facebook.com/drdianahill/ Dr. Diana Hill Linkedin https://www.linkedin.com/in/drdianahill/  Dr. Diana Hill Website https://drdianahill.com/ Thank You to Our Sponsors Timeline - My friends at Timeline are offering 20% off, just for my listeners. Head to timeline.com/gabby to get started. Ritual - Get 25% off your first month at ritual.com/GABBY Get 10% off TUSHY with the code GABBY10 at https://hellotushy.com/GABBY10 For more on Gabby Instagram @GabbyReece: https://www.instagram.com/gabbyreece/ TikTok @GabbyReeceOfficial https://www.tiktok.com/@gabbyreeceofficial The Gabby Reece Show Podcast on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@GabbyReece  The Gabby Reece Show podcast is produced by Rainbow Creative (https://www.rainbowcreative.co/)  Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Today's Message 00:26 Guest Introduction: Diana Hill 00:48 Sponsor Message: Timeline Longevity Gummies 02:57 Diana Hill's New Book: Wise Effort 05:46 Diana's Personal Journey and Struggles 06:34 The Myth of Persephone and Personal Genius 08:05 Understanding and Managing Personal Traits 12:08 The Role of Supportive Relationships 14:08 Finding Balance and Self-Acceptance 34:47 Curiosity and Its Importance 37:44 Navigating Grief with Curiosity 39:06 The Rise of Openness in Psychology 40:42 The Tushy Bidet Experience 42:48 Understanding Wise Effort 50:51 Compassion vs. Empathy 58:32 Possibility vs. Probability 01:04:11 Final Thoughts and Reflections Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

I believe the difference between living within limits and unlocking your true potential comes down to one thing: mindset. In this video, I explore the intersection of probability and possibility, showing how your perspective can shift what feels impossible into achievable results. You'll discover practical strategies to overcome fear, build confidence, and create positive habits that support personal growth and success.From real-life stories of resilience to proven mindset coaching strategies, I'll share how you can reprogram limiting beliefs and start living with purpose and intention. Too often, we live inside probabilities, statistics that keep us safe, but the real breakthroughs come when we embrace possibilities. If you're ready for personal transformation, confidence building, and a mindset reset, this episode will help you step into your full potential.Whether you're focused on career growth, self-discipline, or simply becoming your best self, these lessons will help you unlock the resilience and clarity needed to succeed. Remember, probabilities may keep you comfortable, but possibilities are where growth and fulfillment live. Watch until the end for mindset strategies you can apply today to elevate your personal and professional life.Key Takeaways ✅ Possibility begins where probability ends ✅ Most people stay stuck in limits that don't exist ✅ A bold mindset opens doors to healing, growth, and success ✅ Personal stories can ignite massive inner change ✅ Resilience is a choice, not a trait ✅ Growth means rejecting the status quo ✅ Believing in yourself is the foundation of possibility ✅ Your life can exceed logic when you shift your mindset

What if the only thing standing between where you are and where you could be is leadership? In today's bold and honest episode, Kevin and Alan break down the real difference between what's possible and what's probable, explaining why most people never bridge that gap. They challenge the myth that everyone's “doing their best” while revealing how effort, principle, and accountability shape real success. This isn't feel-good talk; it's a wake-up call to rise higher and lead yourself first. Stop guessing what you're capable of. Press play and find out.Episode Reference:Business Growth University - High Performers vs. Wannabes: The Mindset That Separates the Top 1% with Lauren Johnson (EP18) -  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBUmR2RkpO8Learn more about:

Episode Description: When Charlene mysteriously vanishes “to Oz,” Max and Molly follow her back to 1876 Melbourne, Australia—just in time for a famous horse raise known as The Melbourne Cup. There, they meet 11-year-old jockey Peter St. Albans and his horse Briseis. As they calculate odds, distances, and speed, the trio learns a timeless lesson about choices, consequences, and doing what's right. Math Concepts: Understanding odds and probability (24 to 1 betting odds mean a $1 bet wins $24); Probability of winning; Unit conversions and measurement: Proportional reasoning and rate; Basic multiplication and addition.History/Geography Concepts:  The Melbourne Cup (Australia's major horse-racing event, first held in 1861); Historic jockey Peter St. Albans (Michael Bowden), the youngest to win the Melbourne Cup.

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 3318: Darrow Kirkpatrick unpacks the real distinction in retirement income strategies, not between risk and safety, but between who manages the risk, you or an insurance company. He argues for a flexible, hybrid approach that evolves over time, matching both your temperament and life circumstances, rather than locking into an all-or-nothing decision early on. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://www.caniretireyet.com/are-you-feeling-lucky-the-two-schools-of-retirement-income/ Quotes to ponder: “‘Probability-based' and ‘safety-first' label the extremes in retirement planning.” “The real distinction is whether (market and longevity) risk is transferred or retained, and if retained how those risks are managed or avoided.” “Once you buy an annuity, you own that decision for life.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices