Podcasts about Probability

Get a free week of THC+ with no credit card required: https://www.thehighersidechats.com/plus-tv-trial/ In this episode, Jordan Crowder, a consciousness researcher and host of the Conscious Observers Podcast, shares insights from his near-death experience, explores the nature of reality through the lens of simulator theory, and discusses techniques for manifesting and engineering probability to shape our […] The post Jordan Crowder | Ritual Events, Probability Engineering, & The Simulator appeared first on The Higherside Chats.

Risk is unavoidable in investing—and in life. But not all risks deserve equal attention. It is easy to focus primarily on the probability that something will happen. If an investment, career move, or financial strategy has a high likelihood of succeeding, we may assume it is a good decision. But Mark Biller, Executive Editor at Sound Mind Investing, suggests another question may be even more important: If things go wrong, how wrong could they go? That shift—from focusing on probabilities to considering consequences—can help us make wiser financial decisions and protect ourselves from risks that could permanently derail our plans. A Small Probability Can Carry a Huge Consequence Suppose someone told you there was a 99% chance an opportunity would succeed. Those odds sound compelling. But what if the remaining 1% chance of failure meant complete financial ruin? Suddenly, the decision looks very different. A simple illustration is crossing a busy street. The probability of being hit by a vehicle may be relatively small, but we still look both ways because the potential consequence is catastrophic. A low probability does not make a severe consequence irrelevant. The same principle applies to investing. An outcome may be statistically unlikely, but if it could wipe out your savings, destroy your retirement plan, or leave you unable to meet your obligations, it deserves serious consideration. Financial thinker Peter Bernstein summarized the principle well: the consequences of being wrong can matter more than the probabilities of being right. That leads to two important questions: If this goes wrong, how wrong could it go?  And how much would it matter? Why Humility Matters in Investing Financial history offers plenty of reminders that even highly intelligent investors cannot anticipate every outcome. One famous example is the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998. The hedge fund was run by some of the brightest minds in finance and relied on sophisticated mathematical models. Those models worked under most circumstances—but a combination of leverage and extraordinary market conditions caused enormous losses. The lesson is not that investors should avoid risk altogether. Risk is part of investing. Rather, wise investors recognize the limits of their knowledge. We cannot predict every market decline, economic shock, or unexpected life event. That reality should lead us toward humility and encourage us to build financial plans with room for error. Build a Margin of Safety One practical way to prepare for uncertainty is to maintain a margin of safety. That begins before investing. A strong financial foundation includes reducing burdensome debt and establishing adequate emergency savings. Then, as you invest, diversification can help reduce the danger of concentrated bets, while avoiding excessive leverage can protect against losses that permanently impair your financial position. The goal is not to eliminate every possible risk. That would be impossible. Instead, margin allows your plan to survive when circumstances do not unfold as expected. Biblical wisdom encourages this kind of prudence. Proverbs 22:3 says: “The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.” Wise stewardship does not require us to live fearfully. But it does call us to recognize potential danger and prepare appropriately. Your Emergency Fund Protects More Than Emergencies An emergency fund may seem separate from an investment portfolio, but the two are closely connected. Think of investing like climbing a ladder. Before climbing higher, you want to make sure the ladder is resting on firm ground. Emergency savings provide that foundation. Unexpected expenses are inevitable. A furnace fails. A vehicle needs replacing sooner than expected. A major repair suddenly becomes necessary. Without adequate savings, those expenses may force you to sell investments at exactly the wrong time—perhaps when the market is down significantly. What began as an ordinary household expense can then cause lasting damage to a long-term investment plan. An emergency fund creates financial breathing room so temporary problems do not become permanent setbacks. Protecting Retirees From Sequence-of-Returns Risk Consequences become especially important as retirement approaches. One risk retirees face is known as sequence-of-returns risk. This occurs when significant investment losses happen early in retirement while a retiree is simultaneously withdrawing money from the portfolio. Two retirees could experience similar average investment returns over several decades but have very different outcomes depending on when the losses occur. A steep market decline early in retirement can be particularly damaging because withdrawals compound those losses. Even strong returns later may not fully repair the damage. Diversification can help manage this risk. Some retirees also choose to keep several years of anticipated spending in cash or relatively low-risk investments so they are less likely to sell stocks during a severe market downturn. The appropriate strategy will vary by household, but the principle remains the same: consider not only what is likely to happen, but what would happen to your plan if difficult circumstances arrived at an inconvenient time. How Much Risk Can You Afford? Risk tolerance is often discussed in terms of emotion: How comfortable are you when markets fall? That matters, but consequence-based thinking adds another dimension. Ask what would happen if an investment or strategy failed. Would the loss merely be disappointing? Or would it prevent you from retiring, eliminate your emergency reserves, jeopardize your home, or keep you awake at night? If a negative outcome would derail your financial goals, you may be taking more risk than you can afford—even if the probability of success appears high. On the other hand, if you can absorb the downside without seriously damaging your financial plan, then probability can play a larger role in the decision. This framework also guards against becoming too conservative. Avoiding stocks entirely in retirement may reduce short-term market volatility, for example, but it introduces another potential consequence: a portfolio may fail to keep pace with inflation over a retirement that lasts several decades. Wise risk management considers both sides. Stewardship Leaves Room for the Unexpected We cannot know exactly what markets, inflation, interest rates, or the economy will do next. And Scripture never promises that careful planning will remove uncertainty from our lives. Our confidence ultimately rests somewhere deeper. As Christians, we believe God is sovereign and that our ultimate security is found in Christ—not in the performance of our portfolios. That frees us to approach financial decisions with both wisdom and humility. We can plan carefully without pretending we know the future. We can prepare for risk without being ruled by fear. And we can leave margin in our finances because we recognize our own limitations. The goal is not to predict every possible outcome. It is to build a financial life capable of enduring when some of our predictions inevitably prove wrong. Before taking a significant financial risk, don't simply ask, “What are the odds that this will work?” Ask one more question: “If it doesn't, can my financial plan withstand the consequences?” That question may be one of the most valuable safeguards a wise steward can use. On Today's Program, Rob Answers Listener Questions: My son and daughter-in-law have a car loan with a payment over $900 a month and likely a very high interest rate because of poor credit. Are there any options to refinance, reduce the rate, or lower the payment? I'll reach full retirement age later this year and plan to keep working. Should I start Social Security then so I can save, invest, and give more, or delay benefits to receive a larger amount later? Resources Mentioned: Faithful Steward: FaithFi's Quarterly Magazine (Become a FaithFi Partner) Sound Mind Investing (SMI) Focus on Consequences, Not Probabilities (Article by Austin Pryor at Sound Mind Investing) When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management by Roger Lowenstein Master Your Money: A Step-by-Step Plan for Experiencing Financial Contentment by Ron Blue with Michael Blue Christian Credit Counselors FaithFi Field Guide: How Much Money is Enough?  Our Ultimate Treasure: A 21-Day Journey to Faithful Stewardship by Rob West Wisdom Over Wealth: 12 Lessons from Ecclesiastes on Money Look At The Sparrows: A 21-Day Devotional on Financial Fear and Anxiety Rich Toward God: A Study on the Parable of the Rich Fool Find a Certified Kingdom Advisor® (CKA) FaithFi App Remember, you can call in to ask your questions every weekday at (800) 525-7000. Faith & Finance is also available on Moody Radio Network and American Family Radio. You can also visit FaithFi.com to connect with our online community and partner with us as we help more people live as faithful stewards of God's resources. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It’s usually smarter to weigh consequences rather than chase probabilities. Whether you’re building a portfolio or mulling over a new job prospect, checking the odds of success matters. But what if even a low‑odds failure could wipe you out financially? On the next Faith & Finance Live, Rob West and Mark Biller talk through how to guard against events that can ruin a financial plan and more. Then, it’s on to calls. That’s Faith & Finance Live, biblical wisdom for your financial journey. That’s weekdays at 4pm Eastern/3pm Central on Moody Radio. Faith & Finance Live is a listener supported program on Moody Radio. To join our team of supporters, click here.To support the ministry of FaithFi, click here.To learn more about Rob West, click here.To learn more about Faith & Finance Live, click here.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, host Andy Leonard sits down with Ilan Man, founder and CEO of Paradox Machines, a full-stack data and AI company based in Brooklyn. Ilan shares his fascinating journey from an actuarial career to the dynamic field of data science, exploring the rise of big data, the art of translating complex mathematics into code, and the importance of numeracy in society. Together, they discuss the paradoxes at the heart of data and AI, the challenges of decision-making under uncertainty, and why intuition, risk management, and storytelling remain critical in a world driven by data. Whether you're a data enthusiast, decision-maker, or just curious about how numbers shape our lives, this conversation delivers valuable insights and a healthy dose of skepticism about the limits, and possibilities, of analytics.Linkshttps://www.linkedin.com/in/ilanman/Time Stamps00:00 Starting a career in data science03:34 Discovering a career in actuarial science08:17 Learning coding and joining Squarespace11:40 Understanding Probability in Code15:36 Questioning Confidence in Decision-Making20:06 Discussing COVID vaccine effectiveness21:09 Understanding vaccine effectiveness24:41 Consumers interacting with unpredictable AI29:35 Discussing disease perception and interpretation33:01 Casino audiobook and extra details35:41 Balancing data-driven decisions40:07 Career journey to founding Paradox40:49 Building a data platform with AI46:41 Data's Role in Decision Making47:30 Value and limits of data-driven decisions

Robert B. Parker (1932-2010), in conversation with Richard Wolinsky and Richard A. Lupoff, recorded June 13, 1992 while on tour for the Spenser novel, “Double Deuce.” Mystery and suspense author Robert B. Parker died at the age of 77 on January 18, 2010. His career encompassed 38 novels in his popular Spenser detective series during his life, with another three published posthumously, plus nine novels in the Jesse Stone series, four in the Cole and Hitch series, six in the Sonny Randall series, nine other novels, and four books of non-fiction. There were two Probabilities interviews with Robert B. Parker. The first time, co-hosted with Lawrence Davidson, was recorded in Parker's hotel room in the spring of 1981. At the time he'd just switched publishers and with Looking for Rachel Wallace and then Early Autumn, he was finally having success as an author. His success would explode exponentially over the next eleven years, and by the time of this interview. Robert Parker had written an additional ten Spenser novels, the TV series Spencer for Hire starring Robert Urich had run for three seasons, and a spin-off, A Man Called Hawk had had a 13 episode run. In addition, he'd completed an unfinished Philip Marlowe novel by Raymond Chandler, and followed that up with a sequel. Four Robert Urich Spenser films were produced after the interview was recorded, each based on a different Spenser novel by Parker. Three Spenser TV movies, based on three other novels with Joe Mantagna as Spenser ran from 1999 to 2001. A 2020 Netflix film with Mark Wahlberg, Spencer: Confidential, was based on a Spenser novel written by another author, Ace Atkins, who continued the series. In the interview, Robert Parker insists he won't start other series. In fact, of course, he did. The Sonny Randall series, featuring a female former cop turned private eye; the Cole & Hitch series of western detective novels, and the Jesse Stone series, featuring the police chief of a small town in Massachusetts. There have also been nine made for television films starting Tom Selleck as Jesse Stone. This interview was digitized, remastered and re-edited in January 2024 by Richard Wolinsky and was first posted on January 7, 2024. The post Probabilities Archive: Robert B. Parker (1932-2010), The Spenser novels, 1992 appeared first on KPFA.

People won't stop talking about a potential Steph Curry to Boston trade -- why? Is it even plausible at this point? Plus, the NBA schedule release, Lakers ownership schadenfreude, Jaylen Brown meme'd into oblivion, and much more.

Bookwaves/Artwaves is produced and hosted by Richard Wolinsky. Links to assorted local theater & book venues   The Probabilities Archive: Robert B. Parker (1932-2010), The Spenser Novels, 1992 Robert B. Parker (1932-2010), in conversation with Richard Wolinsky and Richard A. Lupoff, recorded June 13, 1992 while on tour for the Spenser novel, “Double Deuce.” Mystery and suspense author Robert B. Parker died at the age of 77 on January 18, 2010. His career encompassed 38 novels in his popular Spenser detective series during his life, with another three published posthumously, plus nine novels in the Jesse Stone series, four in the Cole and Hitch series, six in the Sonny Randall series, nine other novels, and four books of non-fiction. There were two Probabilities interviews with Robert B. Parker. The first time, co-hosted with Lawrence Davidson, was recorded in Parker's hotel room in the spring of 1981. At the time he'd just switched publishers and with Looking for Rachel Wallace and then Early Autumn, he was finally having success as an author. His success would explode exponentially over the next eleven years, and by the time of this interview. Robert Parker had written an additional ten Spenser novels, the TV series Spencer for Hire starring Robert Urich had run for three seasons, and a spin-off, A Man Called Hawk had had a 13 episode run. In addition, he'd completed an unfinished Philip Marlowe novel by Raymond Chandler, and followed that up with a sequel. This interview was digitized, remastered and re-edited in January 2024 by Richard Wolinsky and has only been posted as a podcast.   The Probabilities Archive: Nancy Pickard, The Jenny Craig Mysteries, 1990 Nancy Pickard, author of the Jenny Crain mysteries, in conversation with Richard Wolinsky and Richard A. Lupoff, recorded April 4, 1990 in the KPFA studios while on tour for the novel “Bum Steer.” Originally a journalist, Nancy Pickard turned to mysteries in 1984 with Generous Death, which would eventually lead to ten Jenny Crain novels. As of 2026, there are also three novels in the Marie Lightfoot series, three non-series novels, plus three in the Eugenia Potter series, four collections and one co-authored non-fiction work. Her most recent novel to date, The Scent of Rain and Lightning, was published in 2010 and was adapted into a film in 2017. As of 2025, she continues to speak at various mystery conferences and conventions. In the late 1980s, crime and mystery fiction by women skyrocketed. Even so, awards were still being given to mostly male writers, and in 1987, the organization Sisters in Crime was formed. 

In Berkeley, at KPFA, Richard Lupoff and I, the hosts of the Probabilities radio program, having drifted from science fiction into mysteries and later into general fiction and narrative non-fiction, noticed the trend pretty early on, and began interviewing these pioneer writers, one by one, local writers like Marcia Muller and Sue Dunlap, and writers from out of town, such as Sue Grafton, or from overseas, such as P.D. James.

These interviews, the Sisters in Crime interviews, were all conducted in the 1980s and 1990s, and because of the switch from analog tape to digital, were not heard since the new century began, and are now being digitized, one by one. This is the second in the Sisters In Crime series of interviews. This interview was digitized, remastered and edited on August 8, 2026. It was first aired in 1990 and then rebroadcast in 1991. Review of “Orpheus Descending” at Oakland Theatre Project through August 23, 2026     The post Bookwaves/Artwaves – August 13, 2026: Probabilities Mystery Archive: Robert B. Parker – Nancy Pickard appeared first on KPFA.

From the Probabilities Archive: Nancy Pickard, author of the Jenny Crain mysteries, in conversation with Richard Wolinsky and Richard A. Lupoff, recorded April 4, 1990 in the KPFA studios while on tour for the novel “Bum Steer.” Originally a journalist, Nancy Pickard turned to mysteries in 1984 with Generous Death, which would eventually lead to ten Jenny Crain novels. As of 2026, there are also three novels in the Marie Lightfoot series, three non-series novels, plus three in the Eugenia Potter series, four collections and one co-authored non-fiction work. Her most recent novel to date, The Scent of Rain and Lightning, was published in 2010 and was adapted into a film in 2017. As of 2025, she continues to speak at various mystery conferences and conventions. In the late 1980s, crime and mystery fiction by women skyrocketed. Even so, awards were still being given to mostly male writers, and in 1987, the organization Sisters in Crime was formed. 

In Berkeley, at KPFA, Richard Lupoff and I, the hosts of the Probabilities radio program, having drifted from science fiction into mysteries and later into general fiction and narrative non-fiction, noticed the trend pretty early on, and began interviewing these pioneer writers, one by one, local writers like Marcia Muller and Sue Dunlap, and writers from out of town, such as Sue Grafton, or from overseas, such as P.D. James.

These interviews, the Sisters in Crime interviews, were all conducted in the 1980s and 1990s, and because of the switch from analog tape to digital, were not heard since the new century began, and are now being digitized, one by one. This is the second in the Sisters In Crime series of interviews. This interview was digitized, remastered and edited on August 8, 2026. It was first aired in 1990 and then rebroadcast in 1991.   The post Sisters In Crime: Nancy Pickard, the Jenny Crain Mysteries, 1990 appeared first on KPFA.

A quiet man spends decades chasing an impossible invention, only to discover that success carries a responsibility far greater than wealth or fame. When the future reveals a disaster that has not happened yet, one ordinary bartender must decide whether he is willing to become the man history needs. Probability by Louis Trimble. That's next on The Lost Sci-Fi Podcast. Louis Preston Trimble makes his debut on the podcast today and it's probably the only time he will be here. Born in Seattle Washington in 1917 Trimble wrote more than 60 novels, some sci-fi, mostly westerns and mysteries but only one science fiction short story. This is the fourth story we've featured from the April 1954 issue of If, following The Golden Man by Philip K. Dick, Breeder Reaction by Winston Marks, and Way of a Rebel by Walter M. Miller Jr. We will find our story on page 99, Probability by Louis Trimble… Next on The Lost Sci-Fi Podcast, A young researcher risks his career, his freedom, and his sanity to prove that madness can be reversed with a single injection. But when the only way to demonstrate the cure is from inside a locked ward, he must decide whether to stake his life on the very drug that put him there. Open All Doors by Harry Harrison and Hubert Pritchard. Lost Sci-Fi Premium - https://lostscifi.supercast.com/ Buy Me a Coffee - https://lostscifi.com/coffee Newsletter - https://lostscifi.com/free/ Facebook - https://lostscifi.com/facebook YouTube - https://lostscifi.com/youtube X - http://Lostscifi.com/x Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/lostscifiguy Bluesky - https://bsky.app/profile/lostscifipodcast.bsky.social Merchandise - https://lostscifi.creator-spring.com/ Thanks to Our Listeners Who Bought Us a Coffee $200 Someone $100 Tony from the Future $75 James Van Maanenberg $50 James Van Maanenberg, MizzBassie, Anonymous Listener $25 Fintan Quigley, Curious Jon, David Bell, Steve, Miriam, Someone, Someone, Eaten by a Grue, Jeff Lussenden, Fred Sieber, Anne, Craig Hamilton, Dave Wiseman, Bromite Thrip, Marwin de Haan, Future Space Engineer, Fressie, Kevin Eckert, Stephen Kagan, James Van Maanenberg, Irma Stolfo, Josh Jennings, Leber8tr, Conrad Chaffee, Anonymous Listener $15 Every Month Someone $15 Steve, Someone, SueTheLibrarian, Joannie West, Amy Özkan, Someone, Carolyn Guthleben, Patrick McLendon, Curious Jon, Buz C., Fressie, Anonymous Listener $10 David, Anonymous Listener $5 Every Month Eaten by a Grue $5 Tammy, Owen, Bruce, Someone, TLD, David, Denis Kalinin, Timothy Buckley, Andre'a, Martin Brown, Ron McFarlan, Tif Love, Chrystene, Richard Hoffman, Anonymous Listener Listen without commercials and enjoy exclusive bonus episodes every month with Lost Sci-Fi Premium—start your free 7-day trial today. https://lostscifi.supercast.com/ Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The greatest barrier to finding love isn't a lack of chemistry, it's a lack of opportunity. Jay explores why modern dating feels so exhausting and reveals the psychology behind attraction, offering practical ways to build a life that naturally invites love in. If you're feeling burned out by the search for "the one," this conversation is an invitation to release rigidity, handle rejection as data, and find hope for moving forward. Probability doesn't promise that your soulmate is waiting around the corner, but it does promise that tomorrow is not predetermined by yesterday. Trust that every new community and conversation makes space for the right connection, and that a life rich with curiosity will always lead you forward. With Love and Gratitude,Jay Shetty PURPOSE10 for 10% at altrarunning.com/onpurpose. Free Shipping and Free 30-Day Trial. Talk to a State Farm agent today to learn how you can choose to bundle and save with the Personal Price Plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. JAY'S DAILY WISDOM DELIVERED STRAIGHT TO YOUR INBOX Join 900,000+ readers discovering how small daily shifts create big life change with my free newsletter. Subscribe here: https://news.jayshetty.me/subscribe Check out our Apple subscription to unlock bonus content of On Purpose! https://lnk.to/JayShettyPodcast  What We Discuss: 00:34 Love as Probability: Creating Opportunities 01:43 Are You Isolating Yourself?  03:31 The First Psychological Concept That Will Reframe Dating  03:55 Debunking The Biggest Myth About Love 04:28 The Mere Exposure Effect Explained  06:09 Building Regular Spaces for Repeated Encounters Is Everything 08:22 The Second Shift For Meeting Your Soulmate 09:20 The Strength of Weak Ties  11:49 Your Preferences are The Problem, Not Your Standards  16:24 How to Harness First-Date Pressure 18:30 Redefining First Dates: Enjoyable Exploration 20:15 Start Separating Worth from Outcomes 22:57 High Standards and the Dating Puzzle Analogy 24:30 Zooming Out and Staying Open to Love 24:42 Curiosity, Community, and the Philosophy of Choice 25:42 To The People Losing Hope… Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A scientist condemned to a punishment unlike anything ever devised watches centuries slip past while every civilization around him rises, changes, and disappears. As the world transforms beyond recognition, only one question remains: what will finally bring his endless sentence to an end? Pendulum by Ray Bradbury and Henry Hasse. That's next on The Lost Sci-Fi Podcast. You can never have too many 5-star reviews. Never. Every one reminds us why we do this, but some hit a little differently. This one from Apple Podcasts Canada absolutely made our day. wethesheep-not wrote: “Delightful. Best narrator ever! Hands down best audiobook podcast! You can't compare this podcast with any other.” Wow. To everyone who has taken a minute to leave a rating or review, thank you. Those reviews help more listeners discover The Lost Sci-Fi Podcast, and they remind us that these classic stories are still finding new fans all over the world. And to wethesheep-not—thank you for such incredibly kind words. We truly appreciate you listening and taking the time to share your thoughts. Ray Bradbury and Henry Hasse joined forces on just three stories. We featured one of them, Final Victim, about two and a half years ago. From the November 1941 issue of Super Science Stories on page 102, Pendulum by Ray Bradbury and Henry Hasse… Next on The Lost Sci-Fi Podcast, A quiet man spends decades chasing an impossible invention, only to discover that success carries a responsibility far greater than wealth or fame. When the future reveals a disaster that has not happened yet, one ordinary bartender must decide whether he is willing to become the man history needs. Probability by Louis Trimble. Lost Sci-Fi Premium - https://lostscifi.supercast.com/ Buy Me a Coffee - https://lostscifi.com/coffee Newsletter - https://lostscifi.com/free/ Facebook - https://lostscifi.com/facebook YouTube - https://lostscifi.com/youtube X - http://Lostscifi.com/x Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/lostscifiguy Bluesky - https://bsky.app/profile/lostscifipodcast.bsky.social Merchandise - https://lostscifi.creator-spring.com/ Thanks to Our Listeners Who Bought Us a Coffee $200 Someone $100 Tony from the Future $75 James Van Maanenberg $50 James Van Maanenberg, MizzBassie, Anonymous Listener $25 Fintan Quigley, Curious Jon, David Bell, Steve, Miriam, Someone, Someone, Eaten by a Grue, Jeff Lussenden, Fred Sieber, Anne, Craig Hamilton, Dave Wiseman, Bromite Thrip, Marwin de Haan, Future Space Engineer, Fressie, Kevin Eckert, Stephen Kagan, James Van Maanenberg, Irma Stolfo, Josh Jennings, Leber8tr, Conrad Chaffee, Anonymous Listener $15 Every Month Someone $15 Steve, Someone, SueTheLibrarian, Joannie West, Amy Özkan, Someone, Carolyn Guthleben, Patrick McLendon, Curious Jon, Buz C., Fressie, Anonymous Listener $10 David, Anonymous Listener $5 Every Month Eaten by a Grue $5 Tammy, Owen, Bruce, Someone, TLD, David, Denis Kalinin, Timothy Buckley, Andre'a, Martin Brown, Ron McFarlan, Tif Love, Chrystene, Richard Hoffman, Anonymous Listener Listen without commercials and enjoy exclusive bonus episodes every month with Lost Sci-Fi Premium—start your free 7-day trial today. https://lostscifi.supercast.com/ Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Neuroscientist Stuart Firestein (Columbia University) joins Breaking Math to make an extravagant claim: uncertainty isn't a weakness in science — it's the defining feature that makes progress possible. In this episode, we break down why the "one right answer" myth is one of the most damaging ideas in science, why real experts are often the most uncertain people in the room, and why authority and expertise pull in opposite directions, covering two fundamentally different kinds of probability, why Darwin never erased a 300-year-old classification system built on an assumption he disproved, why AI is exceptional at prediction but not built for causation, and why pseudoscience always has a confident answer while real science rarely does — plus the philosophical difference between hope and optimism, and why Voltaire had to invent the word "optimism" in 1759 to describe it. Chapters03:00 Predictability and the sea of uncertainties04:08 Science as a search for probabilities and multiple solutions06:16 Biological classification and the dynamic nature of species09:10 The optimistic view of a branching universe12:41 Probability as the language of optimism16:48 Two types of probability and their roles17:50 AI, probabilistic models, and the future of certainty21:40 Science and the creation of better ignorance23:21 The importance of asking questions over giving answers27:21 Authority versus knowledge in science30:04 Pluralism and multiple solutions in science32:46 Science in the gray area of uncertainty35:39 The brain and randomness in thought39:44 Science as a source of hope and optimismFollow Breaking Math onSubstack (https://breakingmath.substack.com/)X (https://x.com/breakingmathpod)Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/breakingmathmedia/)Bluesky (https://bsky.app/profile/breakingmath.bsky.social)Website (https://www.breakingmath.io/)YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/@BreakingMathPod)Follow Noah onInstagram (https://www.instagram.com/profnoahgian/)X (https://x.com/ProfNoahGian)Bluesky (https://bsky.app/profile/profnoahgian.bsky.social)Follow Autumn onX (https://x.com/1autumn_leaf)Bluesky (https://bsky.app/profile/1autumnleaf.bsky.social)Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/1autumnleaf/)Substack (https://substack.com/@1autumnleaf)email: breakingmathpodcast@gmail.com

Bookwaves/Artwaves is produced and hosted by Richard Wolinsky. Links to assorted local theater & book venues   The Probabilities Archive: Robert Bloch (1917-1994), Pulp Magazine Writer and Novelist Robert Bloch (1917-1994), who died on September 23, 1994 at the age of 77, began his career writing fantasy and horror for the pulp magazines, and graduated after World War II to writing psychological thriller novels, often focusing on serial killers. He is best known today for having written the novel “Psycho,” which was adapted into the classic 1959 film by Alfred Hitchcock. From the 1950s through 1970s, he also wrote for episode television (most notably “Alfred Hitchcock Presents”) and made for television films. In all, there were countless short stories, over thirty published novels, and several non-fiction articles. On March 4, 1982, the late Probabilities co-host Richard A. Lupoff (1935-2020) ninterviewed Robert Bloch before an audience. There were no major science fiction conventions at the time, so it's not clear exactly where this interview took place). In the first part of the interview, Bloch discusses his friendship with H.P. Lovecraft, his work with the legendary Fictioneers writing group, and the creation of his Lefty Feep series of short stories. The second part of the interview takes him to his novel-writing days, with a look at the creation of his most famous character, Norman Bates of “Psycho.” Digitized and edited August 1-2, 2026 and introduced by host Richard Wolinsky. Portions of this interview found their way into “Space Ships! Ray Guns! Martian Octopods: Interviews with Science Fiction Legends,” edited by Richard Wolinskky and published by Tachyon Books in 2025.   The post Bookwaves/Artwaves – August 6, 2026: Robert Bloch (1917-1994), Author of “Psycho” appeared first on KPFA.

Evolutionists explain that life started from non-living matter in some sort of "primeval soup." Over the years, they have presented several scenarios of how this might have happened. They have suggested isolated ponds, pools of water on the sides of volcanoes, and in the oceans. Let's consider the general mathematical principles involved in any of these scenarios.In science, the person who proposes a theory is supposed to present the evidence for that theory. Yet, for the incredible claim that life sprang into being out of non-living materials, no evidence is offered. Just how incredible are evolution's claims about the origin of life? Given the conditions evolutionists claim existed at the origin of life, the chance of evolving the simple, common, iso -1-cytochrome "c" protein is one chance out of one followed by 75 zeros. But that's not a living, reproducing thing. Given the same conditions, the chance of getting a DNA molecule with the ability to reproduce is 100 billion, billion to one. The chance of getting a minimal cell works out to one chance out of a 1 followed by 4,478,296 zeros!Rigorous examination of evolution's claims about the origin of life shows that every evolutionary claim about how life started is just as fanciful. As every believer has testified, God is the source of all life, including yours and mine. It has always been so and will always be so.Job 10:12"Thou hast granted me life and favour, and thy visitation hath preserved my spirit.”Prayer: Dear Father in heaven, I thank You for the gift of life and eternal life. Amen.Ref: Joseph Mastropaolo, “Evolution Is Biologically Impossible,” Impact #137. To support this ministry financially, visit: https://www.oneplace.com/donate/1232/29?v=20251111

Robert Bloch (1917-1994), who died on September 23, 1994 at the age of 77, began his career writing fantasy and horror for the pulp magazines, and graduated after World War II to writing psychological thriller novels, often focusing on serial killers. He is best known today for having written the novel “Psycho,” which was adapted into the classic 1959 film by Alfred Hitchcock. From the 1950s through 1970s, he also wrote for episode television (most notably “Alfred Hitchcock Presents”) and made for television films. In all, there were countless short stories, over thirty published novels, and several non-fiction articles. On March 4, 1982, the late Probabilities co-host Richard A. Lupoff (1935-2020) ninterviewed Robert Bloch before an audience. There were no major science fiction conventions at the time, so it's not clear exactly where this interview took place). In the first part of the interview, Bloch discusses his friendship with H.P. Lovecraft, his work with the legendary Fictioneers writing group, and the creation of his Lefty Feep series of short stories. The second part of the interview takes him to his novel-writing days, with a look at the creation of his most famous character, Norman Bates of “Psycho.” Following a question about which Robert Bloch story is the one he'd leave for posterity, Dick Lupoff turns the interview over to the audience, and asks questions based on their input, including a couple of questions about Bloch's work in television. This 65 minute interview has never been posted or aired in its entirety, having only aired using excepts as a half-hour program on Probabilities in the 1980s. Digitized and edited August 1-2, 2026 and introduced by host Richard Wolinsky. Portions of this interview found their way into “Space Ships! Ray Guns! Martian Octopods: Interviews with Science Fiction Legends,” edited by Richard Wolinskky and published by Tachyon Books in 2025. The post Probabilities Archive: Robert Bloch (1917-1994), Legendary Pulp Magazine Writer and Novelist appeared first on KPFA.

Der KI-Sommer 2026 ist noch längst nicht vorbei, hat aber schon ordentlich Schlagzeilen produziert. Claude erpresst einen Vorstand, Gemini schützt seine Autonomie gegen den Willen von Google, ein malaysischer Premier-Chatbot rät zur Nicht-Wahl seines eigenen Chefs, OpenAI-Modelle brechen aus der Sandbox aus und hacken Hugging Face. Was folgt daraus? Der Ruf nach mehr Regulierung, nach dem AI Act, nach Ethikkodizes. Aber ist das die richtige Antwort?Daniel Stelter spricht mit Professor Dr. Christoph Lütge, Ordinarius für Wirtschaftsethik an der Technischen Universität München (TUM) und Direktor des Institute for Ethics in Artificial Intelligence (IEAI) an der TUM. Lütge gilt als einer der profiliertesten Wirtschaftsethiker Deutschlands und steht in der Tradition der Ordnungsethik von Karl Homann. Seine Position: Ethik entsteht durch Regeln, nicht durch Appelle. Warum das gerade für Künstliche Intelligenz gilt, warum der AI Act zu starr ist und warum Deutschland ohne eigene KI und ohne industriellen Strom auch keine relevante KI-Ethik-Debatte führen kann, sind die Inhalte dieses Expertengesprächs.Hinweis ABSTURZ – So retten wir Deutschland: das neue Buch von Daniel Stelter. Jetzt überall, wo es Bücher gibt. Auch bestellbar bei Thalia, Amazon, geniallokal.HörerserviceArbeitspapier Artificial Intelligence and Productivity in Europe (April 2025) des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF), Autorengruppe: https://tinyurl.com/9mfszcn4 Blogbeitrag zur KI-Ausrichtungsforschung Agentic Misalignment in Summer 2026 – Case studies of frontier models sabotaging code, assisting fraud, mislabeling, and coaching whistleblowers (Juli 2026), Autorengruppe: https://tinyurl.com/4skxzts9 Beitrag Anthropic Report Reveals Claude Has 96% Probability of Extortion (Juli 2026) auf der chinesischen Technologie- und Nachrichtenplattform WINZHENG: https://tinyurl.com/4cfu3msc Beitrag Anthropic caught Gemini 3.1 Pro quietly sabotaging a training run it disagreed with, 15. Juli 2026 (Zusammenfassung Fallstudie Covert Sabotage aus dem Anthropic-Report) auf Ground Truth: https://tinyurl.com/2z9h9k8m Beitrag PMX.AI-Panne: Malaysias KI-Chatbot rät Bürgern, Premier nicht zu wählen (Juli 2026) auf dem IT-Nachrichtenportal BornCity: https://tinyurl.com/4js8e32a Buch Ethik des Wettbewerbs – Über Konkurrenz und Moral, von Christoph Lütge, Verlag C.H. Beck, München 2014: https://tinyurl.com/4c5uevwu beyond the obvious – Neue Analysen, Kommentare und Einschätzungen zur Wirtschafts- und Finanzlage finden Sie unter think-bto.com.Newsletter – Den monatlichen bto-Newsletter abonnieren Sie hier.Redaktionskontakt – Wir freuen uns über Ihre Meinungen, Anregungen und Kritik unter podcast@think-bto.com.Handelsblatt – Das Handelsblatt ordnet ein, was aktuelle Wirtschafts- und Politikthemen konkret bedeuten – klar, relevant und auf den Punkt – und jetzt zum Vorteilspreis: 12 Monate lang mit 50 % Rabatt. Ein Angebot für alle, die hinter die Schlagzeilen blicken wollen. Für kurze Zeit unter: handelsblatt.com/rabatt50. Werbepartner – Weitere Informationen zu den Angeboten unserer aktuellen Werbepartner finden Sie hier. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

NEW! Little Big Affirmations Deck for Kids: Check it out.   Click here to Shop Affirmation Decks, Oracle Decks, and more! Use Promo code: RCPODCAST20 for 20% off your first order!   Today's Power Affirmation: I believe in miracles because I am a miracle.   Today's Oracle of Motivation: Some smart people with dope computers estimate more stars are visible from Earth with super telescopes than there are grains of sand on the Earth. Another smart dude, Dr. Ali Binazir, estimates that your being birthed from your parents and existing as you are today is "the probability of 2 million people getting together each to play a game of dice with a trillion-sided dice. They each roll the die, and they all come up with the same number, for example, 550,343,279,001." Faith is the part of you that dares to believe in miracles, and since you are a miracle, dare to believe in yourself - 'k?   Designed to Motivate Your Creative Maniac Mind The 60-Second Power Affirmations Podcast is designed to help you focus, affirm your visions, and harness the power within your creative maniac mind! Join us daily for a new 60-second power affirmation followed by a blast of oracle motivation from the Universe (+ a quick breathing meditation). It's time to take off your procrastination diaper and share your musings with the world!   For more musings, visit RageCreate.com     Leave a Review & Share! Apple Podcast reviews are one of THE most important factors for podcasts. If you enjoy the show, please take a second to leave the show a review on Apple Podcasts! Click this link: Leave a review on Apple Podcasts Hit “Listen on Apple Podcasts” on the left-hand side under the picture. Scroll down under “Ratings & Reviews” & click “Write A Review” Leave an honest review. You're awesome!  

Ralph Losey, eDiscovery, AI, and quantum law expert, CEO of Losey AI, LLC, returns to sit down with EDRM's Mary Mack and Holley Robinson. In this episode, Ralph explains how decades spent riding the waves of major legal tech shifts helped him recognize the impact quantum computing will have on the legal profession. That instinct, combined with a lifelong fascination with quantum physics dating back to a high school physics project, drove him to create his course, "Quantum Law: From Causation to Probability," available at quantumlawcourse.com. Ralph offers a vivid analogy for what's coming: today's computing works like a mouse running one path through a maze at a time, while quantum computing works like water flooding the entire maze at once. He stresses the importance of getting "quantum hardened" now and of positioning early to help clients navigate the shift, including in matters of evidence. As always, we ended with a fun fact from Ralph and how best to reach him.

Is life the product of chance alone, or does its existence point toward deeper scientific or philosophical questions? In this thought-provoking episode of The ‘X' Zone, Rob McConnell welcomes physicist, author, and science educator Robert Piccioni to explore the fascinating question: Can Life Really Be Merely an Accident? Drawing upon his background in physics and cosmology, Dr. Piccioni examines the scientific principles surrounding the origin of life, the apparent fine-tuning of the universe, probability, evolution, and the fundamental laws of nature. He discusses how science approaches these profound questions while distinguishing between evidence, theory, and philosophical interpretation. Throughout the conversation, Rob and Dr. Piccioni explore topics including cosmology, biology, the conditions necessary for life, and the ongoing dialogue between science, philosophy, and theology. Rather than offering simple answers, the discussion encourages listeners to think critically about one of humanity's oldest and most compelling questions. Whether you're interested in physics, cosmology, biology, philosophy, or the origins of life, this episode offers an engaging exploration of the scientific and philosophical ideas that continue to shape our understanding of existence.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-x-zone-radio-tv-show--1078348/support.Please note that all XZBN radio and/or television shows are Copyright © REL-MAR McConnell Meda Company, Niagara, Ontario, Canada – www.rel-mar.com. For more Episodes of this show and all shows produced, broadcasted and syndicated from REL-MAR McConell Media Company and The 'X' Zone Broadcast Network and the 'X' Zone TV Channell, visit www.xzbn.net. For programming, distribution, and syndication inquiries, email programming@xzbn.net.We are proud to announce the we have launched TWATNews.com, launched in August 2025.TWATNews.com is an independent online news platform dedicated to uncovering the truth about Donald Trump and his ongoing influence in politics, business, and society. Unlike mainstream outlets that often sanitize, soften, or ignore stories that challenge Trump and his allies, TWATNews digs deeper to deliver hard-hitting articles, investigative features, and sharp commentary that mainstream media won't touch.These are stories and articles that you will not read anywhere else.Our mission is simple: to expose corruption, lies, and authoritarian tendencies while giving voice to the perspectives and evidence that are often marginalized or buried by corporate-controlled media

I’ve got a good one for you today my friend! Bill Hartman brings 35 years of experience, and more importantly, a totally unique way of thinking about rehab, performance, and movement. In our conversation, we take a deep dive into how he moved from standard, rule-based systems to a principle-driven framework called the UHP that […] The post Bill Hartman on Movement Models, Return to Play, and Playing the Probabilities appeared first on Robertson Training Systems.

Bookwaves/Artwaves is produced and hosted by Richard Wolinsky. Links to assorted local theater & book venues   Sara Paretsky: author of the V.I. Warshawski Mysteries Sara Paretsky in 2019. Sara Paretsky, author of the V.I. Warshawski mysteries, in conversation with Richard Wolinsky and Richard A. Lupoff as part of the “Probabilities” radio series, recorded in the KPFA s studio on March 16, 1991 following the publication of “Burn Marks” and before the publication of “Guardian Angel.” In the late 1980s, crime and mystery fiction by women skyrocketed. Even so, awards were still being given to mostly male writers, and in 1987, the organization Sisters in Crime was formed. In Berkeley, at KPFA, Richard Lupoff and Richard Wolinsky, the hosts of the Probabilities radio program, having drifted from science fiction into mysteries and later into general fiction and narrative non-fiction, noticed the trend pretty early on, and began interviewing these pioneer writers, one by one, local writers like Marcia Muller and Sue Dunlap, and writers from out of town, such as Sue Grafton, or from overseas, such as P.D. James. These interviews, the Sisters in Crime interviews, were all conducted in the 1980s and 1990s, and because of the switch from analog tape to digital, have not been heard since the new century began. Until now. It is appropriate to begin this series of interviews with the first president of Sisters in Crime, Sara Paretsky, recorded March 16, 1991 while she was in the Bay Area for a mystery conference. At the time, six V.I. Warshawski novels had been published, and a film starring Kathleen Turner would be released a few months later. It would turn out to be the only time V.I. Warshawski stories were adapted for film or television.

As of July, 2026, Sara Paretsky has published 22 novels in the V.I. Warshawski mystery series, and two non-series novels, along with three short story collections and two works of nonfiction. The most recent V.I. novel, Pay Dirt, was published in 2024.   Ian Watson (1943-2025) Iconic Science Fiction and Fantasy Author Ian Watson. Photo: Glenn Hall. Wikipedia Commons Ian Watson (1943-2026), unconventional British science fiction and fantasy writer, who died on April 13, 2026 at the age of 82, in conversation with Richard Wolinsky and Richard A. Lupoff for the Probabilities radio program, recorded in Oakland at Westercon 40 on July 2, 1987. Ian Watson (1943-2026) who died on April 13, 2026 at the age of 82, was an unconventional author whose works brimmed with ideas and philosophical turnings. Author of over thirty one novels, not including several written in the world created by the Warhammer 40,000 game, there were also eleven collections of short stories, plus a catalogue of poems. An avowed socialist, he also stood in elections as a Labour Party candidate in the days before Tony Blair. His novel, The Power, discussed in the interview, was published later in 1987, and can now be found, along with many of his novels, as Kindle book through Amazon. In early 1990, Ian Watson received a call from the assistant to legendary film-maker Stanley Kubrick to work on a science fiction film based on a story about a robot boy written by Brian Aldiss. For the next several months, he and Kubrick hammered out a screenplay treatment until Kubrick, in December of that year, said it was what he wanted, barring some changes, but shortly thereafter began work on what would be his final film, Eyes Wide Shut. Kubrick died on March f7, 1999 at the age of seventy. Shortly afterward, Steven Spielberg, using Watson's treatment, wrote a screenplay which became his film, A.I. Artificial Intelligence. You can find Ian Watson's essay about his work with Kubrick by going to this link. This interview was digitized, remastered and edited on May 2, 2026. Sound quality (speed) is variable.   Review of “The Employee Dharma Handbook” at TheatreWorks Palo Alto through August 2, 2026.   The post Bookwaves/Artwaves – July 16, 2026: From the Archive: Sara Paretsky – Ian Watson appeared first on KPFA.

If the best team does not always win, how much of sports success comes down to skill, strategy, or randomness?Eric Eager, Vice President of Football Analytics for the Carolina Panthers, joins the Wharton Moneyball team to examine the role of unpredictability in sports. The conversation explores whether the Home Run Derby is more revealing than it appears, how tournament design influences results, and why major competitions can feel random even when familiar contenders ultimately advance.The discussion also covers World Cup win probabilities, the importance of superstar players, NHL contracts and salary caps, the disappearance of 200-game winners in baseball, and whether momentum can explain the changing performance of elite golfers. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stay informed on current events, visit www.NaturalNews.com  - Trump's Toll on the Strait of Hormuz (0:11) - Economic and Strategic Implications (4:36) - Trump's Delusional War Strategy (8:36) - The Futility of Trump's War Plans (11:55) - The Global Impact of Trump's War (44:09) - The Economic and Social Consequences of Trump's War (44:26) - The Legal and Political Challenges of Reforming the FDA (44:47) - The Role of the Courts in Reforming the FDA (45:07) - The Importance of Health Freedom (45:29) - The Legal Strategy of the Alliance for Natural Health (53:15) - The Broader Implications of Health Freedom (53:36) - Government Control and Public Access to Health Information (53:52) - Science, Probability, and Health Claims (1:28:23) - Challenges of Drug Safety vs. Natural Substances (1:31:40) - Impact of Chronic Disease on National Prosperity (1:36:34) - Health Freedom and Legal Battles (1:38:05) - After-Party Discussion on Health Freedom and AI Models (1:40:45) - Unincorporated Nonprofit Associations (UNAs) (1:48:38) - Self-Custody of AI Models (2:00:35) - Personal Stories and Lifestyle (2:06:10) Watch more independent videos at http://www.brighteon.com/channel/hrreport  ▶️ Support our mission by shopping at the Health Ranger Store - https://www.healthrangerstore.com ▶️ Check out exclusive deals and special offers at https://rangerdeals.com ▶️ Sign up for our newsletter to stay informed: https://www.naturalnews.com/Readerregistration.html Watch more exclusive videos here:

Today on The Gist, guest host Bob Garfield introduces the show's new format before diving into a special double-feature interview with science and tech author Steven Johnson. Blending conversations from 2018 and 2016, the episode deconstructs how humanity handles complex, long-term choices and how the simple pursuit of play and delight has secretly driven global history. Johnson breaks down the flaws of binary decision-making, the cognitive value of true group diversity, and how elite historical deliberations rely on tools like the to override tracking errors. Shifting to his book Wonderland, he flips the script on the idea that necessity is the mother of invention, tracing how luxury pursuits like Tyrian purple dye and rare spices accidentally mapped the globe, triggered international espionage, and birthed the modern capitalistic world. Produced by Corey Wara Do you have questions or comments, or just want to say hello? Email us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠thegist@mikepesca.com For full Pesca content and updates, check out our website at https://www.mikepesca.com/⁠ For ad-free content or to become a Pesca Plus subscriber, check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/ For Mike's daily takes on Substack, subscribe to The Gist List https://mikepesca.substack.com/ Follow us on Social Media:⁠⁠⁠⁠ YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4_bh0wHgk2YfpKf4rg40_g⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram https://www.instagram.com/pescagist/ X https://x.com/pescami TikTok https://www.tiktok.com/@pescagist To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠sales@amplitudemediapartners.com Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Why do you keep returning to the same level after making progress? This episode explores human performance, identity, resistance, and the complacent zone. Backsliding Away There is a strange frustration that shows up when you know you are capable of more, but your life keeps snapping back into the same familiar pattern. You make progress. You build momentum. You get closer to the thing you said you wanted. Then something happens. The excuses return. The procrastination shows up. The old habits quietly reappear. Before long, you are back inside the same range you were trying to escape. That is what this episode is about. Not motivation. Not information. Not another strategy. This episode of the Warrior Mind Podcast looks at human performance through a deeper lens: why people keep returning to the same level even when they want something more. Episode Overview Human performance is not just about output. It is not simply about how hard you work, how much discipline you have, or how much potential you carry. Human performance is the expression of your physical capacity, mental clarity, emotional regulation, values, beliefs, and identity under real-world pressure. That last part matters. Because pressure reveals the truth. Anyone can feel capable when life is calm. Anyone can set goals when motivation is high. Anyone can say they want change when the discomfort of staying the same becomes strong enough. But the real test comes when you move close to a new level. That is where the old identity pushes back. That is where many people start returning to the same level. The Complacent Zone In this episode, I talk about what I call the complacent zone. This is the familiar operating range you live inside. It has a floor and a ceiling. The floor is your mental line of support. This is the point where things become uncomfortable enough that you finally take action. Maybe your weight gets too high. Maybe your energy gets too low. Maybe your relationship becomes too strained. Maybe your finances hit a point where you say, “Enough.” That line of support creates urgency. You act. You recommit. You start moving again. But then you approach the ceiling. That ceiling is your mental line of resistance. This is where things get interesting. Because the resistance usually does not look like resistance at first. It looks like being too busy. It looks like needing a break. It looks like losing interest. It looks like confusion, fear, frustration, procrastination, or sudden self-sabotage. But underneath all of that is something more powerful. Your identity is trying to keep you inside the range it recognizes. (function(d,s,id) { var js; var fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0]; if (d.getElementById(id)) return; js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id; js.src = "https://forms.aweber.com/form/30/1374258830.js"; fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs); }(document, "script", "aweber-wjs-1506684634")); Why Returning to the Same Level Feels So Familiar Most people do not repeat patterns because they are weak. They repeat patterns because those patterns are familiar. The mind and body are always working with what has already been practiced. Your beliefs, emotions, values, past experiences, stories, environment, behaviors, and capabilities all help form the internal range you keep returning to. This is why progress can feel real without becoming permanent. You can lose weight and gain it back. You can save money and spend it again. You can build momentum and then quietly lose it. You can get close to the relationship, business, body, or life you want and still find yourself returning to the same level. From the outside, it may look like inconsistency. From the inside, it is often identity protection. The old self knows how to survive inside the old range. It does not always know how to live beyond it. Progress Is Not Always Change One of the strongest ideas in this episode is that movement is not the same as transformation. You may think you are making progress because you are moving upward again. But if you have already been at that level before, you may not be creating anything new. You may simply be recreating the past. That can be hard to admit. But it is also freeing. Because once you see the pattern clearly, you stop confusing short-term improvement with real change. Real change requires moving beyond the old ceiling and staying there long enough for that ceiling to become your new floor. That is the work. Not just breaking through once. Staying through. Probabilities vs. Possibilities Your current life is creating probabilities. Your past and present form a trajectory. If nothing changes beneath the surface, your future becomes fairly predictable. That does not mean it is fixed. It means your current identity system is already producing momentum. If you keep thinking the same way, choosing the same way, reacting the same way, training the same way, avoiding the same conversations, and tolerating the same internal limits, then returning to the same level becomes the most likely outcome. Possibility lives beyond the mental line of resistance. But possibility does not become real just because you can imagine it. Possibility becomes real when your behavior, beliefs, standards, and identity begin to align with that new level. That is where human performance changes. The Physical Side of Human Performance This is why physical challenge matters. The body exposes what the mind can hide. Put a man under a loaded barbell, on a steep trail, in a hard workout, or inside a physically demanding challenge, and his patterns show up quickly. Avoidance shows up. Excuses show up. Self-talk shows up. Emotional regulation shows up. The quality of discipline shows up. That is one reason training is such a powerful mirror. It does not just build strength. It reveals the identity behind the strength. A difficult workout can show you where you negotiate with yourself. A heavy lift can show you where you hesitate. Fatigue can reveal whether your standards are real or just convenient. Human performance is not separate from the body. The physical reveals the psychological. The Real Question Most people ask, “What am I capable of?” That is not a bad question. But it is not the deepest question. The better question is: Can your current identity carry the level of life you say you want? Because potential is not the problem for most people. Many people are carrying more capacity than they are expressing. They know more is possible. They can feel the unused strength, clarity, discipline, and purpose inside them. But potential alone does not change your life. Potential must be converted. Awareness must become action. Action must become practice. Practice must become identity. That is how returning to the same level stops. Key Takeaways From This Episode • Human performance is shaped by identity, not just effort. • The complacent zone is the familiar range between your mental line of support and mental line of resistance. • Your mental line of support is the internal floor that pushes you into action. • Your mental line of resistance is the internal ceiling where fear, excuses, procrastination, and sabotage tend to appear. • Backsliding is often the identity system pulling you back into the familiar. • Progress is not always transformation. Sometimes it is just the past repeating with new language. • Physical challenge reveals mental patterns faster than reflection alone. • Possibility becomes real only when it is practiced long enough to become your new probability. Reflection Questions Where do you keep returning to the same level? Where have you confused movement with real change? What goal have you approached before, only to pull back when it became unfamiliar? What excuses tend to show up near your mental line of resistance? What would have to shift in your identity for that old ceiling to become your new floor? These are not casual questions. They are performance questions. Because the next level of human performance is not found by collecting more information. It is found by identifying the internal range you keep living inside and expanding the identity that determines what you can actually sustain. Closing Thought If you keep returning to the same level, the answer is not always to push harder. Sometimes the answer is to look deeper. Not softer. Deeper. Look at the story. Look at the behavior. Look at the environment. Look at the emotional payoff of staying where you are. Look at the beliefs that keep making the familiar feel safe and the possible feel threatening. Because once you see the system, you can begin to change it. And once you change the system, human performance stops being random. It becomes aligned. Explore The Resilient Man Framework If this episode hit something real, the next step is to look at the structure underneath your performance. The Resilient Man Framework is designed to help you rebuild alignment across physical strength, mental clarity, emotional resilience, and meaningful purpose.

Jeremy Zakis warns of a 97% probability of a Super El Niño, predicting record-breaking heat and dangerous winds for Australia. This forecast necessitates early bushfire preparations, such as controlled burn-offs of undergrowth. The global impact includes severe drought in Africa and heavy winter precipitation in North America. (9)19522

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Sara Paretsky in 2019. Sara Paretsky, author of the V.I. Warshawski mysteries, in conversation with Richard Wolinsky and Richard A. Lupoff as part of the “Probabilities” radio series, recorded in the KPFA s studio on March 16, 1991 following the publication of “Burn Marks” and before the publication of “Guardian Angel.” In the late 1980s, crime and mystery fiction by women skyrocketed. Even so, awards were still being given to mostly male writers, and in 1987, the organization Sisters in Crime was formed. In Berkeley, at KPFA, Richard Lupoff and Richard Wolinsky, the hosts of the Probabilities radio program, having drifted from science fiction into mysteries and later into general fiction and narrative non-fiction, noticed the trend pretty early on, and began interviewing these pioneer writers, one by one, local writers like Marcia Muller and Sue Dunlap, and writers from out of town, such as Sue Grafton, or from overseas, such as P.D. James. These interviews, the Sisters in Crime interviews, were all conducted in the 1980s and 1990s, and because of the switch from analog tape to digital, have not been heard since the new century began. Until now. It is appropriate to begin this series of interviews with the first president of Sisters in Crime, Sara Paretsky, recorded March 16, 1991 while she was in the Bay Area for a mystery conference. At the time, six V.I. Warshawski novels had been published, and a film starring Kathleen Turner would be released a few months later. It would turn out to be the only time V.I. Warshawski stories were adapted for film or television.

As of July, 2026, Sara Paretsky has published 22 novels in the V.I. Warshawski mystery series, and two non-series novels, along with three short story collections and two works of nonfiction. The most recent V.I. novel, Pay Dirt, was published in 2024. The post Sisters in Crime: Sara Paretsky, The V.I. Warshawski mysteries, 1991 appeared first on KPFA.

Greg and Doug discuss why markets are stuck in a holding pattern despite a strong first half of the year. They break down the three catalysts investors should be watching, corporate earnings, Federal Reserve policy, and the upcoming midterm elections, while exploring how AI infrastructure spending and geopolitical tensions are influencing inflation and interest rates. The episode wraps up with Wimbledon, the World Cup, The British Open, and the enduring greatness of Novak Djokovic and Lionel Messi. Key Takeaways [02:40] - Three catalysts that the market is looking for [05:12] - Probability of a rate hike + what the fallout would be [10:41] - The summer of European sports View Transcript Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Does “tough on crime” actually work? Could Ban the Box policies backfire? Jen Doleac, PhD, is Executive Vice President of Criminal Justice at Arnold Ventures, a philanthropy maximizing evidence based policy & minimizing injustice. She is an economist & the author of The Science of Second Chances who prefers the reliable lens of data over personal values & has a particular interest in how measurable data can give rise to positive societal change.In this episode, she breaks down when prison actually works versus when it just creates more prisoners & walks through how the minefield of rules in probation may not prevent new crime in the way we think. You'll also hear the re-entry policies that worked vs flopped & the real life results from policies developed through data. If you liked this episode, you'll also like episode 195: ROUNDING UP SUSPICIOUS WOMEN? THE AMERICAN PLANGuest:Book: https://a.co/d/0aZzqCMt https://x.com/jenniferdoleac https://www.linkedin.com/in/jdoleac/ https://jenniferdoleac.comhttps://www.probablecausation.com/ Newsletter https://probablecausation.substack.com/arnoldventures.org Sponsors: https://www.historicpensacola.org/about-us/  2:44 Homicide is basically a coin flip4:36 Probability vs. severity of punishment5:56 The evidence against harsh sentencing8:15 Are we confusing retribution with safety?9:03 Digital crimes and the Undress Me app case12:10 Policymakers blocking unfavorable research14:47 "Tough on crime" politics vs. data24:11 DNA profiles vs. 23andMe: what's actually stored35:04 DUIs: breathalyzers and officer discretion37:56 South Dakota's 24/7 Sobriety program40:43 Re-entry: Ban the Box backfires42:51 Hiring bias and insurance as a fix45:06 Rehabilitation certificates work47:24 Housing barriers and halfway house surprises49:16 Mental health gaps post-release50:14 Medicaid's inmate exclusion52:14 Reentry waivers and continuity of care54:43 Head Start, prevention, and crime58:15 Lead poisoning and the serial-killer hypothesis1:04:08 The four reasons we punish people1:06:10 Book, podcast, and what's next for JenRequest to join my private Facebook Group, MFR Curious Insiders: https://www.facebook.com/share/g/1BAt3bpwJC/Follow me in all the places:https://www.meredithforreal.com/  https://www.instagram.com/the_curiousintrovert/ meredith@meredithforreal.comhttps://www.youtube.com/meredithforreal https://www.facebook.com/curiousintrovert

A comprehensive update on the global electric vehicle (EV) market through the first half of 2026, highlighting a significant transition away from internal combustion engines. Tesla and SpaceX have announced a massive $25 billion semiconductor factory in Texas to secure the advanced chips necessary for future autonomous and robotic technologies. Despite broader economic challenges, Tesla is experiencing a robust sales recovery in Europe, marked by triple-digit growth in several key nations. Simultaneously, the Chinese automotive market has reached a historic turning point, with plug-in vehicles securing over 60% of monthly sales as traditional gas-powered car demand collapses. These reports collectively illustrate a world where EV manufacturers and startups are increasingly dominating the industry while legacy competitors struggle to adapt.

After a year of gambling I am none the wiser of understanding probabilities.In Episode #523 of 'Meanderings', Juan & I discuss: probabilities/gambling/arbitrage, how my brother first found ways to exploit betting promotions, using sports betting apps in conjunction with Polymarket, how markets set probabilities, whether AI will become genuinely better than humans at predicting future outcomes, complexity making exact prediction almost impossible and the future of livestreaming and personal data. Stan Link: https://stan.store/meremortalsTimeline:(00:00:00) Intro(00:02:33) How betting promotions can tilt the odds(00:05:52) Getting gubbed and the limits of beating bookies(00:07:28) Casino systems, card counting and roulette stories(00:12:29) Polymarket, lay bets and online arbitrage appeal(00:15:17) Bots, algorithmic trading and speed advantages(00:20:56) A human edge in clunky betting markets(00:23:04) Probability confusion and betting both sides(00:27:36) How do you build probabilities from scratch(00:35:52) Weather, complexity and what probability really means(00:43:58) Can AI actually predict the future(00:54:30) Why the betting edge disappears over time(00:57:15) Live data, streaming and future tech habits(01:03:26) AI music, data ownership and universal compute(01:09:04) Human judgement, long bets and future projects(01:15:22) Podcast updates, yoga training and closing notes Connect with Mere Mortals:Website: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/Discord: https://discord.gg/K99e8fysBnTwitter/X: https://twitter.com/meremortalspodsInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/meremortalspodcasts/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@meremortalspodcastsValue 4 Value Support:V4V: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/supportPaypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/meremortalspodcast

Dave Brisbin 6.21.26 At the extremes, physical reality is utterly different than the world we perceive each day. Unlike our solar system with distinct planets neatly orbiting the sun, inside an atom, an electron doesn't orbit a nucleus, but has a form that can only be described as a cloud of probability. It doesn't orbit. It surrounds the nucleus like a fog. Quantumly speaking, electrons are in superposition. In this state, subatomic particles don't exist in any one place. There is only a certain probability of being here as opposed to there…until we interact with them, measure them. Then superposition collapses, and from our point of view, the particle is forced to “choose” a position. Before we interact, all positions and energy states are possible. Within the atom, the particle is everywhere and nowhere and yet always right herenow. Ancient Hebrews described God hovering over the moment of creation, a conscious interaction that collapsed the void into the positions of space, time, and matter—a version of reality we can observe and measure. They imagined God's presence as a pillar of cloud, right herenow among them, but without form that could be pinpointed or represented. And they were forbidden to try. They knew God is always in the cloud. We could add, in superposition, the probability of everywhere and nowhere. When we interact with an electron, force it out of the cloud, we imagine we can measure and understand it. But we are not seeing the electron in its natural state, as it is when no one is looking. When we interact with God, force God out of the cloud, we imagine a version of God we can measure, but it's no longer God we see, just a representation we can imagine. The extremes of the physical universe sit closer to eternity, showing us if we want to experience ultimate reality, God, as they really are, we can't force them out of the cloud. We enter the cloud ourselves. Raise our frequency till we inhabit the everywhere and nowhere of unwatched electrons. This is prayer as Jesus prayed—his only Way to the Father that we can also travel once we accept there is no form to measure, only the cloud to breathe.

Dave Brisbin 6.21.26 At the extremes, physical reality is utterly different than the world we perceive each day. Unlike our solar system with distinct planets neatly orbiting the sun, inside an atom, an electron doesn't orbit a nucleus, but has a form that can only be described as a cloud of probability. It doesn't orbit. It surrounds the nucleus like a fog. Quantumly speaking, electrons are in superposition. In this state, subatomic particles don't exist in any one place. There is only a certain probability of being here as opposed to there…until we interact with them, measure them. Then superposition collapses, and from our point of view, the particle is forced to “choose” a position. Before we interact, all positions and energy states are possible. Within the atom, the particle is everywhere and nowhere and yet always right herenow. Ancient Hebrews described God hovering over the moment of creation, a conscious interaction that collapsed the void into the positions of space, time, and matter—a version of reality we can observe and measure. They imagined God's presence as a pillar of cloud, right herenow among them, but without form that could be pinpointed or represented. And they were forbidden to try. They knew God is always in the cloud. We could add, in superposition, the probability of everywhere and nowhere. When we interact with an electron, force it out of the cloud, we imagine we can measure and understand it. But we are not seeing the electron in its natural state, as it is when no one is looking. When we interact with God, force God out of the cloud, we imagine a version of God we can measure, but it's no longer God we see, just a representation we can imagine. The extremes of the physical universe sit closer to eternity, showing us if we want to experience ultimate reality, God, as they really are, we can't force them out of the cloud. We enter the cloud ourselves. Raise our frequency till we inhabit the everywhere and nowhere of unwatched electrons. This is prayer as Jesus prayed—his only Way to the Father that we can also travel once we accept there is no form to measure, only the cloud to breathe.

Are you superstitious? Do you have a lucky charm? Or do you believe that everything in life is set up for you already so nothing is by chance? Maybe a bit of both?As we close out the NBA championships, celebrate Hamilton's first F1 win in Ferrari, and head into World Cup games, everyone's discussing luck these days. Whether it's Jordyn Woods' lucky purse or wearing the same underwear every game, we all have something we anchor onto. Besides controlling or hedging on within their control based on past experiences or logical reasoning, there is always a desire to influence the uncontrollable. Yet on the other hand, there are people who don't believe in chance or don't believe in controlling chance. For them, whatever is meant to happen can happen. As someone who is actively working on control issues, chance is something I struggle with often since people often tell me I'm very lucky. Today, let's click into that and see what that really entails.

We are live at Jimmy's ahead of USA vs Australia and we are already buzzing! Matt “Stretch” Johnson is in the seat next to Chuck and giving us all of the soccer knowledge. It's going to be a BIG day in Seattle! :30- Mariners Morning After The Mariners got a 3-0 win over the Orioles and a series win after Bryan Woo threw 7 shutout innings. :45- US star Christian Pulisic's status for today's match is still up in the air- how big of a deal is it if he's out?

We are live at Jimmy's ahead of USA vs Australia and we are already buzzing! Matt “Stretch” Johnson is in the seat next to Chuck and giving us all of the soccer knowledge. It's going to be a BIG day in Seattle! :30- Mariners Morning After The Mariners got a 3-0 win over the Orioles and a series win after Bryan Woo threw 7 shutout innings. :45- US star Christian Pulisic's status for today's match is still up in the air- how big of a deal is it if he's out? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Aram, Peter and Fink react to Jeff Passan's Trade Deadline article for ESPN which details the highest probability trade candidates down to the lowest and who the best fits are. Intro: 0:40 Aroldis Chapman: 3:40Freddy Peralta: 11:16Luis Arraez: 19:15Tarik Skubal: 24:32Ryan Jeffers: 34:10Gleyber Torres: 40:25Coin Flip Trades: 46:00Longshot Trades: 57:00 All the Important Links! Join our Just Baseball Discord Just Baseball Merch! Subscribe to Our New Newsletter! Use Code "JUSTBASEBALL" when signing up on BetMGMSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We're podcasting per the launch of the World Cup-tracking Probability Cup, but of course, just had to talk about Wednesday night's NBA Finals classic. The BIG question on my mind: Should predictors/gamblers price in the NBA's massive incentive to make this great series continue? Topics!* Knicks–Spurs Finals comeback analysis and whether San Antonio collapsed or New York surged.* How teams should manage volatility differently when protecting large leads versus playing from behind.* Debate over NBA referee incentives, league interests, and the possibility of series-extension bias.* SportsPredict's World Cup Probability Cup and using prediction contests to identify analytical talent.* Whether modern hiring should adopt a “Moneyball” approach by measuring forecasting skill instead of relying on traditional credentials.* Is the big money in studying idiot sports predictors or geniuses?Again, join our Probability Cup contest and perhaps win an iPad Pro ($1,000 value) or $200 Ticketmaster gift card. Accept the challenge and learn more at sportspredict.com/probabilitycup.House of Strauss is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.houseofstrauss.com/subscribe

George travels to South America to investigate a sure-fire gambling system at a casino called "Caesar's." Unfortunately, the man who invented the system has been murdered and his formula is missing! - Originally aired September 29, 1952

This week we are getting nerdy as we explore one of the most fascinating and often overlooked aspects of Human Design: Perspective. As the world feels increasingly overwhelming and attention is pulled in countless directions, understanding your unique Perspective can help reduce mental anxiety, create healthier filters around information, and bring you back into alignment. We dive into the six Human Design Perspectives—Survival, Possibility, Power, Wanting, Probability, and Personal—and explain how each one offers a unique lens for observing the world. You'll learn why you're designed to focus on a specific aspect of life and how embracing your natural Perspective can help you feel more grounded, empowered, and mentally clear.   Key Takeaways: Why mental overwhelm often comes from trying to see and process everything instead of honoring your natural Perspective. How your Perspective reveals the unique way your mind is designed to observe the world and offer valuable insights. How each of the six Perspectives has a specific area of genius—from seeing possibilities and probabilities to understanding power dynamics, survival needs, personal impact, and human fulfillment. Why understanding your Perspective can help you create healthier boundaries around media consumption and information overload. Why trusting the observations you're naturally designed to make can help reduce anxiety and allow you to contribute your unique wisdom to the collective.   Free Mini-Courses!: FREE Transits & The Harmonic Gate Mini-Course FREE Human Design Readings 101 Masterclass Join us in Your Human Design Besties! Get our book: Your Human Design! Online Human Design Reader Training 64 Gates & Gene Keys Training Future trainings and Retreats can be found on daylunalife.com Instagram: @‌d.a.y.l.u.n.a    

In this episode of Money & Meaning, Jeff Bernier speaks with Peter Nakada, Chief Education Officer at Stone Ridge Asset Management, about alternative investments and the role they can play in building more resilient retirement portfolios. They examine why traditional portfolios are often overly dependent on corporate profits and interest rates, and how “true alternatives” like reinsurance may provide diversification benefits that traditional alternatives cannot. Peter explains catastrophe bonds, quota shares, risk premiums, and the behavioral challenges investors face when allocating to alternative asset classes during periods of uncertainty and market volatility.    Topics covered:  Why traditional portfolios may be overly tied to stocks and bonds The difference between traditional alternatives and “true alternatives” How reinsurance works and why it exists Understanding catastrophe bonds and quota shares Natural disaster risk as an investable risk premium Hard and soft insurance markets and how pricing adjusts after losses Why reinsurance may help improve portfolio resilience in retirement Expected return assumptions for reinsurance strategies Portfolio allocation considerations for alternative investments Behavioral challenges investors face during periods of natural disasters Probability biases and investor psychology in alternative asset classes Why staying invested through market cycles matters    Useful Links:    Jeff Bernier on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/jeffberniercfp_the-money-and-meaning-show-activity-7202103509700227072-h0Qn/  TandemGrowth Financial Advisors: https://www.tandemgrowth.com/  Peter Nakada on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-nakada  Stone Ridge: https://www.stoneridgeam.com/  Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com) 

ServiceNow is down almost while the market sits at all-time highs. That kind of divergence is exactly what options traders look for. The trade: buy one 110 put, sell three 100 puts for a net credit of $190. That structure gives you a break-even near $95, right where the stock was trading just a few weeks ago. Probability of profit sits at 86% and theta decay runs at $10 a day. The only catch is buying power this one uses about $7,600. But buying a 75 put as a wing brings that down under $3,000 with almost no impact on the credit or the probability.

Justin Spillers, founder of Real Estate Alpha, reveals how a decade of disciplined strategy paved his path to dominating Ohio's multifamily market from building a proprietary property database to mastering broker relationships and innovative outreach tactics. Imagine never missing a prime opportunity because your data is 90% accurate, and you're always top of mind with owners and brokers. Justin shares the exact methods that deliver high-conversion outreach: personalized video mailers, creative direct-owner campaigns, and the power of consistent follow-up. You'll discover how meticulous data scrubbing, the right CRM tools, and AI-enhanced processes keep his pipeline overflowing even in slow markets. Justin Spillers Partner & Manager of Real Estate Alpha Based in: Minster, Ohio Where to find them: https://www.linkedin.com/in/justinspillers/ realestatealpha.io/ Book your free demo today at bill.com/bestever and get a $100 Amazon gift card. Visit https://malabarhillcapital.com/ for more info. Podcast production done by⁠ ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week we are joined for the 4th time by physicist Sam Kuypers. From his Conjecture Institute profile: “Quantum physicist, interested in foundational questions. In his research, published in reputable scientific journals, he explores the quantum theory of time, the many-worlds interpretation, and locality.”We discuss: Is probability theory true? Is it useful? What is the connection between probability theory and physics? Does the many worlds interpretation make probability theory more true or less true?⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Support us on Patreon⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Dear sir Philadelphia June 1. 1776 Your favours of May 14. and 22d. are now before me. The first I shewed to Mr. Morris, as soon as I received it. The last contains Intelligence, from Hallifax of the Streights to which our Enemies are reduced, which I was very glad to learn. I am very happy to learn from you and some other of my Friends that Boston is securely fortified; but still I cannot be fully satisfied untill I hear that every unfriendly Flagg is chased out of that Harbour. Cape Ann, I am sensible is a most important Post, and if the Enemy should possess themselves of it, they might distress the Trade of the Colony to a great Degree. For which Reason I am determined to do every Thing in my Power to get it fortified at the Continental Expence. I cant be confident that I shall succeed but it shall not be my Fault if I dont. I am very glad you gave me your Opinion of the Utility of that Harbour and of the Practicability of making it secure, because I was not enough acquainted with it before to speak with Precision about it. Your Observations upon the oppressive severity of the old Regulations of Trade in subjecting Ships and Cargoes to Confiscation for the Indiscretion of a Master or Mariner, and upon the Artifice and Corruption which was introduced respecting Hospital Money, are very just: But if you consider the Resolution of Congress, and that of Virginia of the 15th. of May, the Resolutions of the two Carolinas and Georgia, each of which Colonies, are instituting new Governments, under the Authority of the People; if you consider what is doing at New York, New Jersey, Pensilvania, and even in Maryland, which are all gradually forming themselves into order to follow the Colonies to the Northward and Southward, together with the Treaties with Hesse, Brunswick and Waldeck and the Answer to the Mayor &c. of London; I believe you will be convinced that there is little Probability 2of our ever again coming under the Yoke of British Regulations of Trade. The Cords which connected the two Countries are cutt asunder, and it will not be easy to splice them again, together. I agree with you, in sentiment, that there will be little Difficulty in Trading with France and Spain, a great deal in dealing with Portugal, and some with Holland. Yet by very good Intelligence I am convinced, that there are great Merchants in the United Provinces and even in Amsterdam, who will contract to supply you with any Thing you want, whether Merchandize or military Stores by the Way of Nieuport and Ostend, two Towns which are subject to the Empress of Austria, who has never taken any public Notice of the Dispute between Britain and Us, and has never prohibited her Subjects from supplying us with any Thing. There is a Gentleman, now in this City, a Native of it, and a very worthy Man who has been lately in those Towns as well as Amsterdam, who informs me that he had many Conversations there, with Merchants of figure, and that they assured him they should be glad to contract to furnish us with any Supplies, even upon Credit, for an Interest of four Per Cent.1 Other Intelligence to the same Purpose, with Additions of more Importance, has been sent here. But the Particulars may not be mentioned. Europe seems to be in a great Commotion; altho the Appearance of a perfect Calm is affected, I think this American Contest will light up a general War. What it will end in, God alone knows, to whose wise and righteous Providence I chearfully submit, and am with great Esteem and Respect for the Family, your Friend & servant. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In today's episode, I talk about the Steelers' potential interest in Brendan Sorsby and then explore Antonio Brown and a potential HOF bid in 2027. Make sure to follow us on all platforms to keep listening to our Steelers analysis! Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2X4xxKryrcuQowgv61L0X1 Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bleav-in-steelers/id1485137299 iHeart Radio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/269-bleav-in-steelers-52369965/ TuneIn: https://tunein.com/podcasts/Podcasts/Bleav-in-Steelers-p1264828/?topicId=545505812 Jack's X: https://x.com/imjackonthecall Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Episode: 1577 The Monty Hall Problem and the unexpected value of information.  Today, we learn not to turn our back on information.

The Parent Playbook: Navigating the "Sideline Culture" https://teachhoops.com/ In a 30-year coaching career, you learn that you aren't just coaching the 15 players on your roster; you are managing a 45-person ecosystem that includes parents, guardians, and extended "inner circles." Navigating parent behaviors is less about "conflict resolution" and more about Environmental Design. Most parent friction occurs in the Information Vacuum—the space between what you see in the gym every day and what the parent hopes for at the dinner table. To build a championship culture, you must be the Chief Transparency Officer, ensuring that the "Standard" is so clearly communicated that there is no room for a counter-narrative to grow. The greatest tool in your belt is the Mandatory Buffer. Emotions are highest in the 15 minutes following a tough loss. The Standard: No parent-coach communication regarding game strategy or playing time until 24 hours have passed. The Protocol: Require that all concerns be addressed via a scheduled meeting rather than a "sideline ambush." This moves the conversation from the emotional (the heat of the game) to the logical (the film and the data). As we often discuss in the world of analytics, "The numbers don't have feelings." When a parent challenges playing time, move the conversation away from "opinion" and toward Objective Efficiency. The "Truth Room" Metrics: If a player is struggling with their Effective Field Goal Percentage ($eFG%$) or has a high turnover rate in transition, show the data. The Probability of Success: Use the stats to explain the "Why." For example: "Our team's defensive rating improves by $12%$ when we have this specific rotation on the floor." It is very difficult to argue with a $95%$ confidence interval. Parent anxiety usually stems from a lack of Role Definition. If a player thinks they are a "Green Light" shooter but the coach sees them as a "Defensive Specialist," the parent is caught in the middle. The Solution: Conduct mid-season "Role Reviews." Give the player (and by extension, the parent) a clear list of the three things they must do to earn more minutes. The Transformation: You shift the parent from being a "Critic" of your decisions to being a "Partner" in their child's development. They now know exactly what "success" looks like in your system. You cannot coach a kid hard if you haven't made a deposit into their parent's Trust Account. The Strategy: Make it a point to send a "Positive Pulse" text or email to a parent when their child does something that doesn't show up in the box score—diving for a loose ball, cheering for a teammate, or showing "Next Play" speed after an error. The Impact: When you eventually have to have a "Hard Truth" conversation about playing time, the parent listens because they know you see the whole child, not just the stat line. Navigating parent behaviors in sports, basketball coaching communication, parent-coach partnership, team culture, high school basketball, youth sports leadership, "The Villanova Way," Jay Wright coaching, basketball analytics, $eFG%$, role clarity in basketball, athletic leadership, program building, coach development, mental toughness, leadership standards, coach unplugged, teach hoops. Show Notes1. The "24-Hour Rule" and the Communication Protocol2. Using Data as a Shield3. The "Role Clarity" AuditThe Behavior Matrix: Challenge vs. StrategyParent BehaviorThe "Root Cause"The Collaborative FixThe "Sideline Coach"Lack of trust in the system.Invite them to a "Open Practice" to see the tactical "Why."The "Minutes Counter"Focus on individual vs. team.Share the $VORP$ (Value Over Replacement) data in private.The "Silent Sulker"Perceived disrespect to the child.The "Active Reach"—spend 2 minutes talking about non-hoops life.The "Culture Leader"High buy-in and energy.Empower them to lead the "Parent Council" or team meals.4. The "Relational Capital" DepositSEO Keywords Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

May 4, 2026 - Season 16, Episode 131 of The Terrible Podcast is now in the can. In this Monday morning show, Alex Kozora and I get right into discussing the expectations for the annual releasing of the regular season schedule and how we might be waiting two more weeks for that event to transpire. Alex has recently completed profiles on two of the undrafted free agents recently signed by the Pittsburgh Steelers, K Laith Marjan and DT Kevin Jobity Jr., so on the heels of those being published, we discuss what he learned about both players. Now that we have fully looked at and learned a lot about each of the members of the Steelers 2026 draft class, Alex and I give our expectations for each player when it comes to their rookie seasons. We spend a lot of time talking about QB Drew Allar and KR/WR Kaden Wetjen during this segment as well. With there being a lot of talk right now about the Steelers potentially signing OLB Nick Herbig to a contract extension this offseason, Alex and I discuss how it might be in his best interest to bet on himself in 2026. We look at a few comparable players and contracts related to Herbig at this point in the offseason as we attempt to find a target market price for him that he and the Steelers might be willing to move forward with in the coming weeks and months. This 113-minute episode also discusses several other minor topics not noted in the recap above and we end this show by answering a few emails we have received from listeners. steelersdepot.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices